康康的 personal page - To The Moon

康康的

康康的

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2024-07-03

Nice post and interesting

2022-08-13

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-08-20

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Senior Fed officials frequently make hawkish voices to "set the tone" for Powell's central bank meeting next week?

2022-08-15

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Preview this week | Tencent Xiaomi's ideal financial report is coming! Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released

2022-10-08

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2022-09-09

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Foreign media headlines | Powell reiterates that anti-inflation "will not stop until the target is reached"

2022-07-16

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Another crucial moment for U.S. stocks, with $1.9 trillion worth of hedge options expiring

2022-07-06

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Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded in deep V overnight! U.S. debt surge boosts tech stocks

2022-06-13

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Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?

2022-09-06

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Apple's Fall Launch Preview! What else besides the iPhone 14?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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tonight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255332860793080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":254946630652160,"gmtCreate":1703256525322,"gmtModify":1703256530292,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good game！ you must try to play it","listText":"good game！ you must try to play it","text":"good game！ you must try to play it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254946630652160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":323468045291696,"gmtCreate":1719985363776,"gmtModify":1719985367620,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice post and interesting","listText":"Nice post and interesting","text":"Nice post and interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323468045291696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990410540,"gmtCreate":1660390165183,"gmtModify":1676533463670,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990410540","repostId":"1160701126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998652843,"gmtCreate":1660988808084,"gmtModify":1676536435918,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998652843","repostId":"2260437405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2260437405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660960527,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260437405?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 09:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Senior Fed officials frequently make hawkish voices to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260437405","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Senior Fed officials have recently frequently suggested that controlling inflation remains the central bank's primary goal, even as rate hike may drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes that this may be warming up for Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish speech at the global central bank conference next Friday. Next week, one of the most eye-catching financial events for global investors will be the Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks to be held in Wyoming next Friday, August 26th. At the event, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, and the content of his speech may signal the direction of borrowing costs in the United States.</p><p><b>Powell's opinion follows a recent flurry of hawkish comments from other top Fed officials that appear to be \"setting the tone\" for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Fed watchers expect tough rhetoric from Powell as he reinforces the central bank's goal of taming inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, Aug. 19, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if it sends the economy into recession.</b></p><p>It comes just a day after three top Fed officials made hawkish comments.</p><p><b>Fed big hawk St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he preferred a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September.</b></p><p>Bullard said he is considering supporting another big rate hike at the Fed's interest rate meeting next month, adding that he is not ready for the economy to have already experienced the worst of surging inflation:</p><p>We should continue to quickly raise policy rates to levels that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike is dragged out until next year. Speaking about next month's interest rate meeting, he said:</p><p>I am now leaning towards rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good reading of the economy, and we have very high inflation, so I think it makes sense to continue raising policy rates and move into a range where you can control inflation.<b>On the same day, another Fed hawk official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, echoed a similar sentiment. She believes that U.S. inflation, although it may be easing, is still on the high side:</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data for July is encouraging, but declaring the Biden administration's inflation-fighting victory now seems too rushed.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who has always been regarded as a dovish official of the Fed, believed that the Fed should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% by the end of the year to cool inflation:</b></p><p>We need to raise rates, at least to a neutral level, around 3%, but probably into restrictive territory.<b>Daly further said that the specific rate hike in September depends on the next economic data. 50 basis points or 75 basis points may be the appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Although Daley's statement is relatively mild, because she has always been relatively dovish, her possible rate hike of 75 basis points still breaks the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will suspend its rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She further said:</b></p><p><b>We don't want the market to think that the Fed's path is a hump-shaped one, that is, a rapid rate hike this year and a big rate cut next year.</b><b>How is the market reacting?</b></p><p><b>The markets this week seem to have begun to react to the hawkish views of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>This week, the major U.S. stock indexes all fell cumulatively. Last week, the Nasdaq and S&P, which rose by more than 3%, fell by 2.62% and 1.21% respectively, and the Nasdaq 100, which rose by nearly 3% last week, fell by 2.38%, both ending the longest consecutive week since November last year, which rose for four consecutive weeks as of last week; The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% and fell back after rebounding last week; Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, leading the decline.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has moved 40 basis points higher this month.</p><p>In addition, the hawkish rhetoric of top Fed officials caused the dollar to soar,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The cryptocurrency's performance also appeared to have been rippled by the Fed's hawkish stance, with a plunge on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Markets Still Expect Fed Rate Cuts Next Year</b></p><p>Although the market believes that the Fed will \"do what it says\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year are getting higher and higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>According to Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Institute:</p><p>In order to bring inflation down to its 2% target, the Fed will have to crush the economy.<b>But, in order to boost growth, the Fed will \"accept living with inflation\" at some point.</b>This dovish turn is unlikely to occur anytime soon compared to what the market seems to expect right now, but this dovish turn is likely to come in 2023.</body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Senior Fed officials frequently make hawkish voices to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSenior Fed officials frequently make hawkish voices to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-20 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Senior Fed officials have recently frequently suggested that controlling inflation remains the central bank's primary goal, even as rate hike may drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes that this may be warming up for Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish speech at the global central bank conference next Friday. Next week, one of the most eye-catching financial events for global investors will be the Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks to be held in Wyoming next Friday, August 26th. At the event, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, and the content of his speech may signal the direction of borrowing costs in the United States.</p><p><b>Powell's opinion follows a recent flurry of hawkish comments from other top Fed officials that appear to be \"setting the tone\" for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Fed watchers expect tough rhetoric from Powell as he reinforces the central bank's goal of taming inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, Aug. 19, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if it sends the economy into recession.</b></p><p>It comes just a day after three top Fed officials made hawkish comments.</p><p><b>Fed big hawk St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he preferred a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September.</b></p><p>Bullard said he is considering supporting another big rate hike at the Fed's interest rate meeting next month, adding that he is not ready for the economy to have already experienced the worst of surging inflation:</p><p>We should continue to quickly raise policy rates to levels that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike is dragged out until next year. Speaking about next month's interest rate meeting, he said:</p><p>I am now leaning towards rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good reading of the economy, and we have very high inflation, so I think it makes sense to continue raising policy rates and move into a range where you can control inflation.<b>On the same day, another Fed hawk official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, echoed a similar sentiment. She believes that U.S. inflation, although it may be easing, is still on the high side:</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data for July is encouraging, but declaring the Biden administration's inflation-fighting victory now seems too rushed.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who has always been regarded as a dovish official of the Fed, believed that the Fed should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% by the end of the year to cool inflation:</b></p><p>We need to raise rates, at least to a neutral level, around 3%, but probably into restrictive territory.<b>Daly further said that the specific rate hike in September depends on the next economic data. 50 basis points or 75 basis points may be the appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Although Daley's statement is relatively mild, because she has always been relatively dovish, her possible rate hike of 75 basis points still breaks the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will suspend its rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She further said:</b></p><p><b>We don't want the market to think that the Fed's path is a hump-shaped one, that is, a rapid rate hike this year and a big rate cut next year.</b><b>How is the market reacting?</b></p><p><b>The markets this week seem to have begun to react to the hawkish views of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>This week, the major U.S. stock indexes all fell cumulatively. Last week, the Nasdaq and S&P, which rose by more than 3%, fell by 2.62% and 1.21% respectively, and the Nasdaq 100, which rose by nearly 3% last week, fell by 2.38%, both ending the longest consecutive week since November last year, which rose for four consecutive weeks as of last week; The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% and fell back after rebounding last week; Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, leading the decline.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has moved 40 basis points higher this month.</p><p>In addition, the hawkish rhetoric of top Fed officials caused the dollar to soar,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The cryptocurrency's performance also appeared to have been rippled by the Fed's hawkish stance, with a plunge on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Markets Still Expect Fed Rate Cuts Next Year</b></p><p>Although the market believes that the Fed will \"do what it says\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year are getting higher and higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>According to Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Institute:</p><p>In order to bring inflation down to its 2% target, the Fed will have to crush the economy.<b>But, in order to boost growth, the Fed will \"accept living with inflation\" at some point.</b>This dovish turn is unlikely to occur anytime soon compared to what the market seems to expect right now, but this dovish turn is likely to come in 2023.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2260437405","content_text":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的财经事件之一就是8月26日下周五在美国怀俄明州举办的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会了。在这场活动中，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话，讨论经济前景，其讲话内容可能预示着美国的借贷成本走向。在鲍威尔发表观点之前，其他美联储高官最近纷纷发表鹰派言论，似乎是在为鲍威尔的讲话“定调”。美联储观察人士预计，鲍威尔将发表强硬言论，因为他强化了央行抑制通胀和控制未来物价上涨预期的目标。8月19日周五，里士满联储主席巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）表示，即使通胀导致经济陷入衰退，美联储也必须继续对抗通胀。就在一天前，三位美联储高官纷纷发表鹰派言论。美联储大鹰派圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）表示，他倾向于美联储9月加息75个基点。布拉德说，他正在考虑在下个月的美联储议息会议上支持再次大幅加息，并补充说他还没有准备好经济已经经历了通胀飙升的最糟糕时期：我们应该继续迅速将政策利率提高到将对通胀造成重大下行压力的水平。我真的不明白为什么要将加息拖到明年。在谈到下个月的议息会议时，他说：我现在倾向于再次加息75个基点。我认为我们对经济的解读相对较好，而且我们的通胀率非常高，所以我认为继续提高政策利率并进入能够控制通胀的区间是有意义的。同一天，另一位美联储鹰派官员堪萨斯城联储主席乔治（Esther George）也表达了类似的观点。她认为，美国通胀虽然可能正在趋于缓和，但仍然偏高：美国7月CPI数据是鼓舞人心的，但现在就宣布拜登政府抗通胀取得胜利还显得操之过急。周四，向来被视作美联储鸽派官员的旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary Daly）则认为，美联储应在年底前将利率“略微”提高到3%以上，以冷却通胀：我们需要提高利率，至少达到中性水平，约为3%，但可能会进入限制性区域。戴利进一步称，具体9月加息多少，要看接下来的经济数据，50个基点或者75个基点，都可能是合适的加息幅度。尽管戴利的表态相对温和，但由于她向来相对鸽派，她所称的可能加息75个基点，依然打破了市场对美联储暂停加息或者大幅收窄加息幅度的期待。她还进一步说：我们不希望市场认为美联储的路径是驼峰形的，即今年迅速加息，明年再大举降息。市场如何反应？本周的市场，似乎已经开始对美联储的鹰派观点做出反应。本周主要美股指均累计下跌，上周涨超3%的纳指和标普分别累跌2.62%和1.21%，上周涨近3%的纳斯达克100累跌2.38%，均结束截至上周连涨四周所创的去年11月以来最长连涨周；上周涨近3%的道指累跌0.16%，在上周反弹后回落；上周涨近5%的罗素2000累跌2.94%，跌幅居首。十年期美国国债收益率本月则已经走高了40个基点。此外，美联储高官们的鹰派言论导致美元飙升，美元指数本周飙升2%，这是自2020年4月以来的最大单周涨幅。加密货币的表现似乎也受到了美联储鹰派立场的波及，周五出现暴跌。市场仍预期明年美联储将降息尽管市场相信美联储今年内将“说到做到”，贯彻鹰派立场，但市场对明年美联储降息的预期却越来越高。贝莱德投资研究所高级投资策略师Ann-Katrin Petersen认为：为了将通胀率降至2%的目标，美联储将不得不压制经济。但是，为了促进增长，美联储将在某个时候“接受与通胀共存”。 与市场目前似乎预期的情况相比，这种鸽派转向不太可能在短期内出现，但这种鸽派转向可能会在2023年到来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1,".IXIC":1,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999206465,"gmtCreate":1660529940460,"gmtModify":1676533487315,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999206465","repostId":"1101951113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101951113","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1660517243,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101951113?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-15 06:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Preview this week | Tencent Xiaomi's ideal financial report is coming! Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101951113","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（8.15-8.19）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，美国零售销售月率、美国初请失业金人数、费城联储制造业指数、API/EIA原油库存等陆续公布。此外，投资者可重点关注美联储FOMC 7月货币政策会议","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Blockbuster financial events this week (8.15-8.19):</p><p><b>In terms of economic data, U.S. retail sales monthly rate</b>、<b>U.S. Unemployment Claims</b>Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, API/EIA crude oil inventory, etc. were announced one after another. In addition, investors can focus on<b>Fed FOMC July Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Contents</b>as well as<b>HSI Companies Hang Seng Index Series Review Results for the Second Quarter 2022.</b><b>In terms of financial report,</b>Sunny Optical Technology, Weimob Group,<b>Li Auto</b>Mavericks Electric,<b>Tencent Holdings</b>HKEx, WuXi Biologics, Target, NetEase, Cisco,<b>Xiaomi Group</b>Wait for companies to announce one after another.<b>In terms of new shares,</b>Hong Kong stocks Shuangcaizhuang and US stocks Dajian Yuncang will be listed on Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cbfa2c1c2d61f8d070ec9b68f4a6c94\" tg-width=\"1982\" tg-height=\"1428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday, Aug. 15 KEYWORDS: Sunny Optical Technology, Weimob Group, Li Auto, Maverick Electric releases earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f0167f81d2486f06486a46c0708657\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"891\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Monday,<b>In terms of data,</b>Investors Can Watch<b>New York Fed Manufacturing Index</b>、<b>U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index</b>, and<b>Canada wholesale sales monthly rate</b>。</p><p><b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">China Literature Group</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">Sunny Optical Technology</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02013\">Weimob Group</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W.</a></b>and U.S. stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a></b>Will report its latest quarterly earnings.</p><p>Previously, Li Auto announced its second-quarter delivery data, showing that it delivered a total of 28,687 Ideal ONE units in the second quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.2%. Since the launch of the Ideal ONE, cumulative deliveries have reached 184,491 units. According to Morgan Stanley's development and research report, on June 28th, Ideal announced that it planned to issue up to $2 billion of American depositary shares (ADS), and the fund-raising is intended to be used to develop the next generation of electric vehicle technology. Although investors may be worried that Ideal will issue additional ADS through the on-market stock issuance plan or affect the stock price in the short term, it is believed that volatility should be controllable, capital replenishment is a strategic benefit, and its cash and liquid assets of US$8 billion are still expected to support Ideal's strategic and product ambitions. He has an Overweight rating on his $41 Li Auto price target.<b>Tuesday, August 16th KEYWORDS: Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting minutes, WH International, Tencent Music, Home Depot and others release earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32b2b0717ac90e58085c7f0cbf9ad77c\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday, the U.S. will announce<b>Total housing starts annualized</b>、<b>Total number of construction permits</b>、<b>Monthly rate of industrial output</b>and other data,<b>Canada to release July CPI monthly rate</b>。 In addition,<b>RBA to release minutes of monetary policy meeting</b>。</p><p>On August 2, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate target by 50 basis points to 1.85%, in line with expectations. The RBA also said the size and timing of future rate hike will depend on upcoming data and the central bank's assessment of inflation and the labour market outlook. On August 16th, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, from which investors can learn more details about the monetary policy outlook.<b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00288\">WH GROUP</a></b>US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/API\">Acoustic network</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Wednesday, August 17th Keywords: US retail sales monthly rate, Tencent Holdings, HKEx, WuXi Biologics, Target, etc. release financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/016e0e9a4cff0bd9a933e0e2d56f7d2c\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec2897290e66860d1f35843a5afabe4a\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday,<b>In terms of data, U.S. Retail Sales Monthly Rate, API/EIA Crude Oil Inventories</b>Will be announced one after another<b>。</b></p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.</p><p><b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00291\">China Resources Beer</a></b>US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Thursday, August 18th KEYWORDS: U.S. initial jobless claims, Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes, Netease, Cisco and others release earnings reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693333613635e8b4a423dcd86af640c5\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Thursday, investors can watch<b>U.S. Jobless Claims for the Week</b>, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, annualized total existing home sales, monthly rate of leading indicators of the Consultative Council and other data.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 262,000 in the week ending August 6th, compared with the previous value of 260,000, and the market expectation of 263,000. U.S. jobless claims rose for a second straight week, near their highest level since November, in a sign that the labor market continues to slow.<b>On the events front, Fed FOMC July Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes</b>Heavy announcement.</p><p>At 02:00 on July 28th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to the range of 2.25%-2.50%, which was 75 basis points for two consecutive rate hike. The Fed said it was prepared to adjust policy as appropriate, reiterating that a sustained rate hike may be appropriate. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting will be released on August 18th, from which investors can learn more about it.<b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">Geely Automobile</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">Ping An Good Doctor</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02057\">ZTO Express-SW</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">Netease-S</a></b>US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02321\">Shuangcaizhuang</a></b>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Friday, August 19th Keywords: Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection, Xiaomi Group, Deere shares release financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693333613635e8b4a423dcd86af640c5\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Friday,<b>In terms of economic data,</b>In the United States, the monthly rate of U.S. Treasury Bond and Canadian retail sales held by foreign central banks in the week will be announced one after another.</p><p><b>On the events front, Kansas Fed President George spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy</b>； In addition, Hang Seng Index Company will announce after the Hong Kong stock market on the same day<b>Hang Seng Index Series Review Results for the Second Quarter of 2022,</b>Changes to the constituent stocks of the relevant index will take effect on September 5.</p><p><b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a></b>Earnings hit heavily<b>。</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview this week | Tencent Xiaomi's ideal financial report is coming! Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview this week | Tencent Xiaomi's ideal financial report is coming! Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-15 06:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Blockbuster financial events this week (8.15-8.19):</p><p><b>In terms of economic data, U.S. retail sales monthly rate</b>、<b>U.S. Unemployment Claims</b>Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, API/EIA crude oil inventory, etc. were announced one after another. In addition, investors can focus on<b>Fed FOMC July Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Contents</b>as well as<b>HSI Companies Hang Seng Index Series Review Results for the Second Quarter 2022.</b><b>In terms of financial report,</b>Sunny Optical Technology, Weimob Group,<b>Li Auto</b>Mavericks Electric,<b>Tencent Holdings</b>HKEx, WuXi Biologics, Target, NetEase, Cisco,<b>Xiaomi Group</b>Wait for companies to announce one after another.<b>In terms of new shares,</b>Hong Kong stocks Shuangcaizhuang and US stocks Dajian Yuncang will be listed on Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cbfa2c1c2d61f8d070ec9b68f4a6c94\" tg-width=\"1982\" tg-height=\"1428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday, Aug. 15 KEYWORDS: Sunny Optical Technology, Weimob Group, Li Auto, Maverick Electric releases earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f0167f81d2486f06486a46c0708657\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"891\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Monday,<b>In terms of data,</b>Investors Can Watch<b>New York Fed Manufacturing Index</b>、<b>U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index</b>, and<b>Canada wholesale sales monthly rate</b>。</p><p><b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">China Literature Group</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">Sunny Optical Technology</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02013\">Weimob Group</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W.</a></b>and U.S. stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a></b>Will report its latest quarterly earnings.</p><p>Previously, Li Auto announced its second-quarter delivery data, showing that it delivered a total of 28,687 Ideal ONE units in the second quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.2%. Since the launch of the Ideal ONE, cumulative deliveries have reached 184,491 units. According to Morgan Stanley's development and research report, on June 28th, Ideal announced that it planned to issue up to $2 billion of American depositary shares (ADS), and the fund-raising is intended to be used to develop the next generation of electric vehicle technology. Although investors may be worried that Ideal will issue additional ADS through the on-market stock issuance plan or affect the stock price in the short term, it is believed that volatility should be controllable, capital replenishment is a strategic benefit, and its cash and liquid assets of US$8 billion are still expected to support Ideal's strategic and product ambitions. He has an Overweight rating on his $41 Li Auto price target.<b>Tuesday, August 16th KEYWORDS: Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting minutes, WH International, Tencent Music, Home Depot and others release earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32b2b0717ac90e58085c7f0cbf9ad77c\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday, the U.S. will announce<b>Total housing starts annualized</b>、<b>Total number of construction permits</b>、<b>Monthly rate of industrial output</b>and other data,<b>Canada to release July CPI monthly rate</b>。 In addition,<b>RBA to release minutes of monetary policy meeting</b>。</p><p>On August 2, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate target by 50 basis points to 1.85%, in line with expectations. The RBA also said the size and timing of future rate hike will depend on upcoming data and the central bank's assessment of inflation and the labour market outlook. On August 16th, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, from which investors can learn more details about the monetary policy outlook.<b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00288\">WH GROUP</a></b>US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/API\">Acoustic network</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Wednesday, August 17th Keywords: US retail sales monthly rate, Tencent Holdings, HKEx, WuXi Biologics, Target, etc. release financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/016e0e9a4cff0bd9a933e0e2d56f7d2c\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec2897290e66860d1f35843a5afabe4a\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday,<b>In terms of data, U.S. Retail Sales Monthly Rate, API/EIA Crude Oil Inventories</b>Will be announced one after another<b>。</b></p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.</p><p><b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00291\">China Resources Beer</a></b>US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Thursday, August 18th KEYWORDS: U.S. initial jobless claims, Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes, Netease, Cisco and others release earnings reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693333613635e8b4a423dcd86af640c5\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Thursday, investors can watch<b>U.S. Jobless Claims for the Week</b>, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, annualized total existing home sales, monthly rate of leading indicators of the Consultative Council and other data.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 262,000 in the week ending August 6th, compared with the previous value of 260,000, and the market expectation of 263,000. U.S. jobless claims rose for a second straight week, near their highest level since November, in a sign that the labor market continues to slow.<b>On the events front, Fed FOMC July Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes</b>Heavy announcement.</p><p>At 02:00 on July 28th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to the range of 2.25%-2.50%, which was 75 basis points for two consecutive rate hike. The Fed said it was prepared to adjust policy as appropriate, reiterating that a sustained rate hike may be appropriate. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting will be released on August 18th, from which investors can learn more about it.<b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">Geely Automobile</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">Ping An Good Doctor</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02057\">ZTO Express-SW</a></b>、<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">Netease-S</a></b>US stocks<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a></b>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02321\">Shuangcaizhuang</a></b>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Friday, August 19th Keywords: Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection, Xiaomi Group, Deere shares release financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693333613635e8b4a423dcd86af640c5\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Friday,<b>In terms of economic data,</b>In the United States, the monthly rate of U.S. Treasury Bond and Canadian retail sales held by foreign central banks in the week will be announced one after another.</p><p><b>On the events front, Kansas Fed President George spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy</b>； In addition, Hang Seng Index Company will announce after the Hong Kong stock market on the same day<b>Hang Seng Index Series Review Results for the Second Quarter of 2022,</b>Changes to the constituent stocks of the relevant index will take effect on September 5.</p><p><b>In terms of financial report,</b>Hong Kong stock<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a></b>Earnings hit heavily<b>。</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8d19d3e08337f29cab892fefc4ecea","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","01810":"小米集团-W","00700":"腾讯控股","LI":"理想汽车",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101951113","content_text":"本周（8.15-8.19）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，美国零售销售月率、美国初请失业金人数、费城联储制造业指数、API/EIA原油库存等陆续公布。此外，投资者可重点关注美联储FOMC 7月货币政策会议纪要内容以及恒指公司2022年第二季度恒生指数系列检讨结果。财报方面，舜宇光学科技、微盟集团、理想汽车、小牛电动、腾讯控股、港交所、药明生物、塔吉特、网易、思科、小米集团等公司将陆续公布。新股方面，港股双财庄、美股大健云仓将于周五上市。8月15日 周一关键词：舜宇光学科技、微盟集团、理想汽车、小牛电动发布财报周一，数据方面，投资者可关注美国纽约联储制造业指数、美国NAHB房产市场指数、以及加拿大批发销售月率。财报方面，港股阅文集团、舜宇光学科技、微盟集团、理想汽车-W、以及美股小牛电动将公布最新季度财报。此前，理想汽车公布二季度交付数据，显示第二季度累计交付28687辆理想ONE，同比增长63.2%。自理想ONE上市以来，累计交付量已达184491辆。大摩发研报指，6月28日理想宣布拟增发最高20亿美元美国存托股份(ADS)，集资拟用于研发下一代电动汽车技术。尽管投资者可能忧虑理想通过场内股票发行计划增发ADS或短期影响股价，但相信波动性应可控，资本补充属策略性利好，加上其80亿美元的现金及流动资产，仍预期可支援理想的战略和产品野心。对理想汽车目标价41美元，评级增持。8月16日 周二关键词：澳洲联储货币政策会议纪要，万洲国际、腾讯音乐、家得宝等发布财报周二，美国将公布新屋开工总数年化、营建许可总数、工业产出月率等数据，加拿大将公布7月CPI月率。此外，澳洲联储将公布货币政策会议纪要。8月2日，澳洲联储将现金利率目标上调50个基点至1.85%，符合预期。澳洲联储还表示，未来加息的规模和时机将取决于即将到来的数据以及央行对通胀和劳动力市场前景的评估。8月16日澳洲联储将公布货币政策会议纪要，投资者可以从中了解货币政策前景的更多细节。财报方面，港股万洲国际、美股腾讯音乐、声网、家得宝、沃尔玛、Sea将公布财报。8月17日 周三关键词：美国零售销售月率，腾讯控股、港交所、药明生物、塔吉特等发布财报周三，数据方面，美国零售销售月率、API/EIA原油库存将陆续公布。事件方面，新西兰联储将公布利率决议和货币政策声明。财报方面，港股香港交易所、腾讯控股、药明生物、华润啤酒，美股塔吉特将公布财报。8月18日 周四关键词：美国初请失业金人数，美联储货币政策会议纪要，网易、思科等发布财报周四，投资者可关注美国当周初请失业金人数、费城联储制造业指数、成屋销售总数年化、咨商会领先指标月率等数据。美国劳工部上周四公布的数据显示，美国截至8月6日当周初请失业金人数为26.2万人，前值为26万人，市场预期为26.3万人。美国初请失业金人数连续第二周上升，接近去年11月以来的最高水平，这表明劳动力市场继续放缓。事件方面，美联储FOMC 7月货币政策会议纪要重磅公布。北京时间7月28日02:00，美联储宣布将基准利率上调75个基点至2.25%-2.50%区间，为连续两次加息75个基点。美联储表示准备酌情调整政策，重申持续加息可能是合适的。8月18日将公布美联储7月货币政策会议纪要，投资者可以从中了解更多相关细节。财报方面，港股吉利汽车、平安好医生、中通快递-SW、网易-S，美股思科将公布财报。新股方面，港股双财庄将公布中签结果。8月19日 周五关键词：恒指季检，小米集团、迪尔股份发布财报周五，经济数据方面，美国当周外国央行持有美国国债、加拿大零售销售月率等将陆续公布。事件方面，堪萨斯联储主席乔治就美国经济前景发表讲话；此外，恒指公司将于当日港股盘后宣布2022年第二季度恒生指数系列检讨结果，相关指数成分股变动将于9月5日生效。财报方面，港股小米集团-W财报重磅来袭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"01810":0.9,"00700":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"02015":0.9,"LI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914867205,"gmtCreate":1665239048608,"gmtModify":1676537577006,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914867205","repostId":"1162298976","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936935276,"gmtCreate":1662690156995,"gmtModify":1676537119554,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936935276","repostId":"2266046815","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266046815","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662673037,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266046815?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 05:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Powell reiterates that anti-inflation \"will not stop until the target is reached\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266046815","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　美联储主席鲍威尔周四在卡托研究所货币政策会议上表示，美联储抗通胀“不达目标不罢休”。　　美联储正在迅速提高利率，以遏制四十年来最热的通胀。　　欧洲央行历史性一次加息75个基点，行长拉加德暗示未来还有“多次”行动，以加紧抗击肆虐的通货膨胀，甚至可能再次实施这样幅度的加息。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Powell said that the Fed's anti-inflation \"won't stop until the target is reached\"</b><b>2. The European Central Bank's historic rate hike of 75 basis points Lagarde hints that there is more to come</b><b>3. Musk: SpaceX has worked with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Companies Discuss iPhone Satellite Services</b><b>4. Mercedes-Benz and Rivian plan joint venture to produce electric vans in Europe</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Group's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REV\">Revlon</a>Wins in $500 million transfer case</b><b>6. Fed Evans expects to rate hike 75 basis points again in September</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9497bd43c8891b47df27ee3135dc936\" tg-width=\"474\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Powell says Fed's inflation fight 'won't stop until it hits its target'</b></p><p>Fed Chairman Powell said Thursday at the Cato Institute's monetary policy conference that the Fed \"won't stop until it reaches its target\" in fighting inflation.</p><p>\"Like we've been doing, we need to act now, be determined, be steadfast,\" Powell said Thursday, speaking at a monetary policy conference hosted by the Cato Institute. \"My colleagues and I are strongly committed to this goal and will continue to do so.\" He interacted with the moderator during a virtual question and answer session.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is rapidly raising interest rates to curb the hottest inflation in four decades. Their next meeting is Sept. 20-21, and Powell reserved the option of 75 basis points for rate hike again or 50 basis points for rate hike instead, saying the final decision depends on the \"general picture\" of economic data. The Fed has already had two consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points in June and July.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f19937b2b2eeba24492c5dcab77bcad0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>ECB Historic rate hike 75 bps Lagarde Hints There's More Behind</b></p><p>The European Central Bank has a historic one-time rate hike of 75 basis points, and President Lagarde has hinted that there are \"many\" actions in the future to step up the fight against raging inflation, and may even impose another rate hike of this magnitude.</p><p>Despite weak growth prospects and rising prices driven largely by supply-side factors, policymakers rate hike an unprecedented 75 basis points on Thursday. The decision was in line with analyst expectations; As a result, the deposit rate rose to 0.75%.</p><p>\"If the data we're evaluating meeting by meeting shows that we should have a significant rate hike, we'll do that,\" Lagarde said. As for the question of how many times \"several times\" represents, she said \"it may be more than two times, including this time, but it may be less than five times.\"</p><p>Money market investors have increased bets on further tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank, seeing a 40% chance of a further 75 basis points rate hike in October.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67713cec93b4a8a558a975c68c630ef7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Musk: SpaceX has worked with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Companies Discuss iPhone Satellite Services</b></p><p>Musk said SpaceX has held talks with Apple about using Space Launch's Starlink service to provide satellite connectivity for iPhones.</p><p>SpaceX CEO Musk said on social media Thursday that the two companies had a \"promising conversation.\" Using satellites for cell phones will work best when the technology is specifically tailored to space-based signals, he said.</p><p>The news comes a day after Apple said it would partner with Globalstar to provide satellite-based services for the next version of its super-popular iPhone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86411839cc94be4d095f85959cdeaaa0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Mercedes Benz, Rivian plan joint venture to build electric van in Europe</b></p><p>Rivian shares rose 9% after Mercedes-Benz said Thursday it plans to build electric vans with Rivian in its factories in Poland, Hungary or Romania in the next few years.</p><p>Mercedes-Benz said the two companies have signed a memorandum of understanding and are planning how to build their models on a joint production line, adding that it is also developing a new all-electric VAN architecture called VAN.EA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f70ba9ada451271ea4ba431f50f3d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Group's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REV\">Revlon</a>Wins in $500 million transfer case</b></p><p>Citigroup won Revlon's $500 million transfer case, and a federal appeals court in the United States ordered some of Revlon's creditors to return more than $500 million remitted to them by Citigroup.</p><p>For Citigroup's main banking arm, the appeal decision is a major victory in its efforts to undo this embarrassing mistake. The mistake had caused extra concern on Wall Street, forcing Citi to explain to regulators how it made the huge mistake. Jane Fraser, the company's CEO, called it a \"massive unforced error\".</p><p>It is reported that Citi accidentally remitted $900 million to Revlon's lender (creditor) in August 2020 due to manual processing errors, and later failed to return most of it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeca5a591f9f2918693e878c90f4090a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>FedEvans expects another rate hike of 75 basis points in September</b></p><p>Chicago's Fed President Evans said policymakers will likely rate hike 75 basis points for the third time at the Sept. 20-21 meeting.</p><p>\"I think we have a good plan, likely to raise rates by 75 basis points in September,\" he said Thursday at an event hosted by DuPage College in Illinois. \"I haven't made up my mind. But I do know that interest rates need to be adjusted well above where they are now.\" Evans has no vote on monetary policy this year.</p><p>After raising rates by 75 basis points in June and July, respectively, Fed Chair Powell is open to a 75 or 50 basis point hike in September, saying the final decision depends on the \"overall\" performance of economic data.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Powell reiterates that anti-inflation \"will not stop until the target is reached\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Powell reiterates that anti-inflation \"will not stop until the target is reached\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-09 05:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Powell said that the Fed's anti-inflation \"won't stop until the target is reached\"</b><b>2. The European Central Bank's historic rate hike of 75 basis points Lagarde hints that there is more to come</b><b>3. Musk: SpaceX has worked with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Companies Discuss iPhone Satellite Services</b><b>4. Mercedes-Benz and Rivian plan joint venture to produce electric vans in Europe</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Group's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REV\">Revlon</a>Wins in $500 million transfer case</b><b>6. Fed Evans expects to rate hike 75 basis points again in September</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9497bd43c8891b47df27ee3135dc936\" tg-width=\"474\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Powell says Fed's inflation fight 'won't stop until it hits its target'</b></p><p>Fed Chairman Powell said Thursday at the Cato Institute's monetary policy conference that the Fed \"won't stop until it reaches its target\" in fighting inflation.</p><p>\"Like we've been doing, we need to act now, be determined, be steadfast,\" Powell said Thursday, speaking at a monetary policy conference hosted by the Cato Institute. \"My colleagues and I are strongly committed to this goal and will continue to do so.\" He interacted with the moderator during a virtual question and answer session.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is rapidly raising interest rates to curb the hottest inflation in four decades. Their next meeting is Sept. 20-21, and Powell reserved the option of 75 basis points for rate hike again or 50 basis points for rate hike instead, saying the final decision depends on the \"general picture\" of economic data. The Fed has already had two consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points in June and July.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f19937b2b2eeba24492c5dcab77bcad0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>ECB Historic rate hike 75 bps Lagarde Hints There's More Behind</b></p><p>The European Central Bank has a historic one-time rate hike of 75 basis points, and President Lagarde has hinted that there are \"many\" actions in the future to step up the fight against raging inflation, and may even impose another rate hike of this magnitude.</p><p>Despite weak growth prospects and rising prices driven largely by supply-side factors, policymakers rate hike an unprecedented 75 basis points on Thursday. The decision was in line with analyst expectations; As a result, the deposit rate rose to 0.75%.</p><p>\"If the data we're evaluating meeting by meeting shows that we should have a significant rate hike, we'll do that,\" Lagarde said. As for the question of how many times \"several times\" represents, she said \"it may be more than two times, including this time, but it may be less than five times.\"</p><p>Money market investors have increased bets on further tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank, seeing a 40% chance of a further 75 basis points rate hike in October.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67713cec93b4a8a558a975c68c630ef7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Musk: SpaceX has worked with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Companies Discuss iPhone Satellite Services</b></p><p>Musk said SpaceX has held talks with Apple about using Space Launch's Starlink service to provide satellite connectivity for iPhones.</p><p>SpaceX CEO Musk said on social media Thursday that the two companies had a \"promising conversation.\" Using satellites for cell phones will work best when the technology is specifically tailored to space-based signals, he said.</p><p>The news comes a day after Apple said it would partner with Globalstar to provide satellite-based services for the next version of its super-popular iPhone.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86411839cc94be4d095f85959cdeaaa0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Mercedes Benz, Rivian plan joint venture to build electric van in Europe</b></p><p>Rivian shares rose 9% after Mercedes-Benz said Thursday it plans to build electric vans with Rivian in its factories in Poland, Hungary or Romania in the next few years.</p><p>Mercedes-Benz said the two companies have signed a memorandum of understanding and are planning how to build their models on a joint production line, adding that it is also developing a new all-electric VAN architecture called VAN.EA.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1f70ba9ada451271ea4ba431f50f3d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The Group's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REV\">Revlon</a>Wins in $500 million transfer case</b></p><p>Citigroup won Revlon's $500 million transfer case, and a federal appeals court in the United States ordered some of Revlon's creditors to return more than $500 million remitted to them by Citigroup.</p><p>For Citigroup's main banking arm, the appeal decision is a major victory in its efforts to undo this embarrassing mistake. The mistake had caused extra concern on Wall Street, forcing Citi to explain to regulators how it made the huge mistake. Jane Fraser, the company's CEO, called it a \"massive unforced error\".</p><p>It is reported that Citi accidentally remitted $900 million to Revlon's lender (creditor) in August 2020 due to manual processing errors, and later failed to return most of it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeca5a591f9f2918693e878c90f4090a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>FedEvans expects another rate hike of 75 basis points in September</b></p><p>Chicago's Fed President Evans said policymakers will likely rate hike 75 basis points for the third time at the Sept. 20-21 meeting.</p><p>\"I think we have a good plan, likely to raise rates by 75 basis points in September,\" he said Thursday at an event hosted by DuPage College in Illinois. \"I haven't made up my mind. But I do know that interest rates need to be adjusted well above where they are now.\" Evans has no vote on monetary policy this year.</p><p>After raising rates by 75 basis points in June and July, respectively, Fed Chair Powell is open to a 75 or 50 basis point hike in September, saying the final decision depends on the \"overall\" performance of economic data.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-09-09/doc-imqmmtha6588983.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9497bd43c8891b47df27ee3135dc936","relate_stocks":{"SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-09-09/doc-imqmmtha6588983.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2266046815","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、鲍威尔表示美联储抗通胀“不达目标不罢休”2、欧洲央行历史性加息75个基点 拉加德暗示后面还有更多3、马斯克：SpaceX曾与苹果公司讨论iPhone卫星服务4、梅赛德斯奔驰与Rivian计划合资在欧洲生产电动货车5、花旗集团在露华浓5亿美元转移案中胜诉6、美联储埃文斯预计9月将再度加息75基点鲍威尔表示美联储抗通胀“不达目标不罢休”美联储主席鲍威尔周四在卡托研究所货币政策会议上表示，美联储抗通胀“不达目标不罢休”。“就像我们一直在做的那样，我们需要立即行动、矢志不渝、坚定不移，”鲍威尔周四在卡托研究所举办的货币政策会议上讲话时表示。“我和我的同事们坚定致力于这个目标，并将继续下去。”他在一个虚拟的问答环节与主持人交流。美联储正在迅速提高利率，以遏制四十年来最热的通胀。他们下次会议将于9月20日至21日举行，鲍威尔保留了再次加息75个基点或改为加息50个基点的选择，表示最终决定取决于经济数据的“总体情况”。美联储已经在6月和7月连续两次加息75个基点。欧洲央行历史性加息75个基点 拉加德暗示后面还有更多欧洲央行历史性一次加息75个基点，行长拉加德暗示未来还有“多次”行动，以加紧抗击肆虐的通货膨胀，甚至可能再次实施这样幅度的加息。尽管经济增长前景疲软、物价上涨主要是供给侧因素推动，但决策者还是在周四前所未有地加息75个基点。该决定符合分析师预期；存款利率因此升至0.75%。“如果我们逐次会议评估的数据显示我们应该大幅加息，我们就会这么做，”拉加德表示。至于“几次”究竟代表几次的问题，她说“可能超过两次，包括这次，但也可能少于五次。”货币市场投资者增加对欧洲央行进一步收紧货币政策的押注，认为10月再加息75个基点的可能性达到40%。马斯克：SpaceX曾与苹果公司讨论iPhone卫星服务马斯克称，SpaceX 已与苹果公司就使用太空发射公司的Starlink服务为iPhone提供卫星连接进行了会谈。SpaceX首席执行官马斯克周四在社交媒体表示，两家公司进行了“有希望的对话”。他说，当该技术专门针对天基信号量身定制时，将卫星用于手机将效果最佳。这条消息发布前一天，苹果表示将与Globalstar合作，为其超受欢迎的iPhone的下一版本提供基于卫星的服务。梅赛德斯奔驰与Rivian计划合资在欧洲生产电动货车梅赛德斯-奔驰周四表示，计划和Rivian在未来几年内在波兰、匈牙利或罗马尼亚的工厂生产电动货车，Rivian 股价上涨 9%。梅赛德斯-奔驰表示，两家公司已经签署了一份谅解备忘录，并正在计划如何在一条联合生产线上生产他们的车型，并补充说它还在开发一种名为 VAN.EA 的新型全电动货车架构。花旗集团在露华浓5亿美元转移案中胜诉花旗集团在露华浓5亿美元转移案中胜诉，美国一联邦上诉法院判决露华浓的部分债权人返还花旗集团汇给他们的5亿多美元。对花旗集团的主要银行部门而言，上诉判决是其挽回这一尴尬错误努力的重大胜利。这一错误曾令华尔街格外关注，迫使花旗向监管机构解释如何犯下这一巨大错误。该公司CEO简·弗雷泽称这是一个“大规模的非受迫性错误”。据悉，花旗在2020年8月因人工处理出现失误，意外向露华浓的贷款方（债权人）汇去了9亿美元，后来未能返还其中大部分。美联储埃文斯预计9月将再度加息75基点芝加哥联邦储备银行行长埃文斯表示，决策者可能会在9月20-21日会议上第三次加息75基点。“我认为我们有一个好的计划，很可能在9月加息75基点，”他周四在伊利诺伊州杜佩奇学院主办的活动上说。 “我还没有下定决心。但我确实知道需要将利率调整到远高于现在的水平。” 埃文斯今年在货币政策上没有投票权。在6月和7月分别升息75基点后，美联储主席鲍威尔对9月加息75或50基点持开放态度，他说最终决定取决于经济数据的“整体”表现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072380402,"gmtCreate":1657954164306,"gmtModify":1676536087984,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072380402","repostId":"1174621170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174621170","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657855497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174621170?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Another crucial moment for U.S. stocks, with $1.9 trillion worth of hedge options expiring","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174621170","media":"金十数据","summary":"美股进一步崩溃会刺激看跌期权买入，加剧市场波动。股票市场投资者面临着越来越多挑战，通胀冲击、大型银行业绩暴击......这周五又迎来了一个关键时刻：众多期权交易员必须决定下一步对冲行动。大约1.9万亿","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A further collapse in U.S. stocks will stimulate the buying of put options and aggravate market volatility. Stock market investors are facing more and more challenges, inflation shocks, big bank performance critics...this Friday ushered in another pivotal moment: numerous options traders must decide their next hedging move.</p><p><b>About $1.9 trillion of options will expire</b>, forcing investors to either roll over existing positions or build new ones.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This monthly event is estimated to involve $925 billion in S&P 500-linked contracts and $395 billion in individual equity derivatives.</p><p>With the S&P 500 down more than 20% from its January high, an increasingly salient question is: How much protection do bulls actually need? This week, the intraday volatility of U.S. stocks rose sharply, and the Nasdaq 100 index rebounded sharply after two consecutive intraday falls. Whether or not to renew a hedge option is a complicated decision for professional speculators.</p><p>Michael Purves, founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, said:</p><p>\"Many investors and traders have switched to holding cash, or have a higher percentage of cash holdings than they were at the start of the year, so there is less need to hedge. The market has priced in a lot of the factors.\" With daily options trading volumes hitting annual records, what to do after expiration is a widely watched event on Wall Street. The trend of the derivatives market can trigger volatility in related securities. There are signs that demand for options hedging is waning as fund managers trim their exposure to equities, and others are opting for other hedging methods, such as shorting the index during the crash.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4750532c72e7ea00ca6dc31cf73323\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for a fifth straight day as dismal results from Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley stoked concerns about economic growth. The June CPI data of the United States released earlier this week prompted traders to bet that the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike will accelerate, further reversing the yields of the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond, which is widely regarded as a recession signal.</p><p>The S&P 500 opened 2.1% lower on Thursday before rebounding to recover most of its losses, closing at 3,790.38. Since hitting a year low of 3666.77 in mid-June, the index's<b>The volatility range has been within 250 points</b>。</p><p>Compared with the strong anxiety of options investors in the U.S. debt market, the mood of U.S. stocks is more optimistic. Despite the continued decline in the stock index,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">Chicago Board Options Exchange</a>The volatility index (Panic Index VIX) has yet to hit its March high, a sign many market professionals see as a sign<b>The market is not panicking</b>。</p><p>Steven Sears, president of Options Solutions, said:</p><p>\"In a sense, the VIX index should move sharply higher, because investor sentiment is getting worse and worse. The expiration of options always attracts the attention of market observers, and they will predict the market outlook from it.\" According to foreign media data, among the expiration option contracts linked to the S&P 500 index,<b>The strike price at 4000 pips has the most open interest</b>。 However, for Brent Kochuba, founder of analytics service SpotGamma, the 3800-point level is more important because it is closer to the index's current position. Currently, there are 24,195 call contracts and 35,528 put contracts expiring under this strike price.</p><p>Judging from an indicator, the current<b>Hedging costs are fairly low</b>。 According to data compiled by foreign media, the skew indicator used by the S&P 500 index to measure the cost of put options relative to call options has been hovering around a three-year low. Kochuba said:</p><p>\"We still believe that the market will not rebound until interest rate guidance has a clearer direction, and not until the Federal Reserve's July 27 policy meeting at the earliest. If indexes do move further lower, it could lead to quite significant put buying, which could exacerbate volatility.\"</body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Another crucial moment for U.S. stocks, with $1.9 trillion worth of hedge options expiring</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnother crucial moment for U.S. stocks, with $1.9 trillion worth of hedge options expiring\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-15 11:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A further collapse in U.S. stocks will stimulate the buying of put options and aggravate market volatility. Stock market investors are facing more and more challenges, inflation shocks, big bank performance critics...this Friday ushered in another pivotal moment: numerous options traders must decide their next hedging move.</p><p><b>About $1.9 trillion of options will expire</b>, forcing investors to either roll over existing positions or build new ones.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This monthly event is estimated to involve $925 billion in S&P 500-linked contracts and $395 billion in individual equity derivatives.</p><p>With the S&P 500 down more than 20% from its January high, an increasingly salient question is: How much protection do bulls actually need? This week, the intraday volatility of U.S. stocks rose sharply, and the Nasdaq 100 index rebounded sharply after two consecutive intraday falls. Whether or not to renew a hedge option is a complicated decision for professional speculators.</p><p>Michael Purves, founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, said:</p><p>\"Many investors and traders have switched to holding cash, or have a higher percentage of cash holdings than they were at the start of the year, so there is less need to hedge. The market has priced in a lot of the factors.\" With daily options trading volumes hitting annual records, what to do after expiration is a widely watched event on Wall Street. The trend of the derivatives market can trigger volatility in related securities. There are signs that demand for options hedging is waning as fund managers trim their exposure to equities, and others are opting for other hedging methods, such as shorting the index during the crash.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4750532c72e7ea00ca6dc31cf73323\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. stocks have fallen for a fifth straight day as dismal results from Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley stoked concerns about economic growth. The June CPI data of the United States released earlier this week prompted traders to bet that the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike will accelerate, further reversing the yields of the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond, which is widely regarded as a recession signal.</p><p>The S&P 500 opened 2.1% lower on Thursday before rebounding to recover most of its losses, closing at 3,790.38. Since hitting a year low of 3666.77 in mid-June, the index's<b>The volatility range has been within 250 points</b>。</p><p>Compared with the strong anxiety of options investors in the U.S. debt market, the mood of U.S. stocks is more optimistic. Despite the continued decline in the stock index,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">Chicago Board Options Exchange</a>The volatility index (Panic Index VIX) has yet to hit its March high, a sign many market professionals see as a sign<b>The market is not panicking</b>。</p><p>Steven Sears, president of Options Solutions, said:</p><p>\"In a sense, the VIX index should move sharply higher, because investor sentiment is getting worse and worse. The expiration of options always attracts the attention of market observers, and they will predict the market outlook from it.\" According to foreign media data, among the expiration option contracts linked to the S&P 500 index,<b>The strike price at 4000 pips has the most open interest</b>。 However, for Brent Kochuba, founder of analytics service SpotGamma, the 3800-point level is more important because it is closer to the index's current position. Currently, there are 24,195 call contracts and 35,528 put contracts expiring under this strike price.</p><p>Judging from an indicator, the current<b>Hedging costs are fairly low</b>。 According to data compiled by foreign media, the skew indicator used by the S&P 500 index to measure the cost of put options relative to call options has been hovering around a three-year low. Kochuba said:</p><p>\"We still believe that the market will not rebound until interest rate guidance has a clearer direction, and not until the Federal Reserve's July 27 policy meeting at the earliest. If indexes do move further lower, it could lead to quite significant put buying, which could exacerbate volatility.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/97089\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/97089","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174621170","content_text":"美股进一步崩溃会刺激看跌期权买入，加剧市场波动。股票市场投资者面临着越来越多挑战，通胀冲击、大型银行业绩暴击......这周五又迎来了一个关键时刻：众多期权交易员必须决定下一步对冲行动。大约1.9万亿美元的期权将到期，迫使投资者要么将现有头寸展期，要么建立新头寸。高盛估计，这个月度事件涉及价值9250亿美元的标普500挂钩合约，以及3950亿美元的个股衍生品。随着标普500指数从1月份的高点下跌超过20%，一个日益凸显的问题是：多头实际上需要多大的保障？本周美股盘中波动率大幅上升，纳斯达克100指数连续两个交易日盘中大跌后大幅反弹。 对于专业投机者来说，是否续期对冲期权是一个复杂的决定。Tallbacken Capital Advisors创始人迈克尔·珀维斯 （Michael Purves） 表示：“许多投资者和交易员已经转为持有现金，或者现金持有比例比年初更高，因此对冲的需求减少了。市场已经消化了很多因素。”随着每日期权交易量创下年度纪录，到期之后该如何处理是华尔街广泛关注的事件。衍生品市场的走势能引发相关证券的波动。有迹象表明，随着基金经理削减股票敞口，期权对冲的需求正在减弱，还有一些人选择了其他对冲方式，例如在暴跌期间做空指数。由于大摩和小摩惨淡的业绩加剧了人们对经济增长的担忧，美国股市已经连续第五天下跌。本周稍早公布的美国6月CPI数据促使交易商押注美联储加息速度将加快，令2年期和10年期美国国债收益率进一步反转，这被普遍视为衰退信号。标普500指数周四开盘大跌2.1%，随后反弹收复大部分失地，收报3790.38点。自6月中旬触及年内低点3666.77以来，该指数的波动幅度一直在250点内。相较于美债市场期权投资者的强烈焦虑，美股的情绪更为乐观。尽管股指持续下跌，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（恐慌指数VIX）尚未触及3月高点，许多市场专业人士认为这一迹象表明市场并不恐慌。Options Solutions总裁史蒂文·西尔斯（Steven Sears）表示：“在某种意义上来说，VIX指数应该大幅走高才对，因为投资者情绪变坏而且越来越糟糕。期权到期总能吸引市场观察者的注意，他们会从中预判后市情况。”根据外媒数据，在与标普500指数挂钩的到期期权合约中，行权价在4000点的未平仓合约最多。然而，对于分析服务商SpotGamma的创始人Brent Kochuba来说，3800点水平更为重要，因为它更接近指数当前的位置。目前，该行权价下有24195份看涨期权合约和35528份看跌期权合约将到期。从一个指标来判断，现在的对冲成本相当低。外媒汇编的数据显示，标普500指数用来衡量看跌期权相对于看涨期权成本的skew指标一直徘徊在三年低点附近。Kochuba表示：“我们仍然认为，市场不会在利率指引有更明确的方向之前反弹，最早也要到美联储7月27日的政策会议。如果股指确实进一步走低，可能会导致相当重大的看跌期权买盘，从而加剧波动。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070537306,"gmtCreate":1657073006505,"gmtModify":1676535944707,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070537306","repostId":"1126427898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126427898","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657065123,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126427898?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-06 07:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded in deep V overnight! U.S. debt surge boosts tech stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126427898","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, the open low of U.S. stocks went high and staged a Jedi counterattack, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.75%, and most Chinese stocks rose; ② Commodities plummeted, US oil fell below $100, and gold hit the lowest closing price this year; ③ Under the worry of recession, the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted; ④ The earthquake in British politics, two senior officials announced their resignation on the same day. Overseas markets</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed overnight, large technology stocks rose across the board</p><p>U.S. stocks moved higher on open low Tuesday and closed mixed, with lower Treasury Bond yields pushing tech stocks higher. By the close, the Nasdaq was up 1.75%, the S&P 500 was up 0.16% and the Dow was down 0.42%.</p><p>Big Tech Stocks All Rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>up 1.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>up 3.60%, Meta up 5.10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>up 4.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>up 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>up 3.30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2.55%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese stocks rose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">Financial OneConnect</a>Up nearly 19%</p><p>Most popular Chinese stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>up 3.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>down 1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>up 2.78%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>up 3.63%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>up 1.82%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>up 11.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>down 1.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>up 2.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>up 4.78%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">Financial OneConnect</a>It rose by more than 19%, and its Hong Kong stocks rose by more than 40% the next day of listing. New energy vehicle stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 3.84%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>up 6.11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.10%, Faraday Future 48.73%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed down across the board, all major stock indexes fell more than 2%</p><p>European stocks closed down across the board on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX down 2.91% and France's CAC40 down 2.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 2.86%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil plunged 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 barrel mark, the lowest closing price in two months. The futures price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, at $99.50 per barrel, the largest decline since mid-March and the lowest closing price since May 10th.</p><p>Citigroup has warned it could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and $45 by the end of 2023 if a severe recession in demand arrives.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 2.1% on Tuesday to an eight-month low</p><p>Gold futures in New York closed sharply lower on Tuesday and hit their lowest close so far this year. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $37.60, or 2.10%, at $1,763.90 per barrel, the lowest closing price since early December.</p><p>Gold fell sharply on Tuesday along with silver, copper and other commodities. London copper closed down more than 4% below the $8,000 mark, hitting a recent 17-month low, as recession fears dominated the market. ICE cotton futures price once hit the lower limit.</p><p>6. The 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted under the worry of recession in the US debt</p><p>On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but later, as economic worries resurfaced, the yield rally reversed, falling to a low of 2.8%. Intraday, at one point, the 2-year yield was slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June, and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This inversion of the curve suggests that the market believes that a slowdown will eventually lead to a downward trend in short-term interest rates.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US State Department spokesman: There are no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran</p><p>Iran and the United States held indirect negotiations on the resumption of compliance with the JCPOA on the Iranian nuclear issue in Doha, Qatar, coordinated by the European Union, on June 28-29, but did not make the expected progress. On July 5, local time, US State Department spokesman Price said at a briefing that there are currently no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>2. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Omicron BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States</p><p>According to the data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 5th local time, the mutated Omicron strain BA.5 subtype of COVID-19 has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States. The data shows that BA.5 subtype infections currently account for 53.6% of new COVID-19 infections in the United States, while BA.4 subtype infections account for 16.5%, and the two together account for about 70% of the total number of COVID-19 infections.</p><p>3. WHO: More than 5,300 monkeypox cases have been reported worldwide, an increase of 56% in 8 days</p><p>On July 5th, local time, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of June 30th, 5,322 laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases had been reported in many countries around the world, of which one died. At a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Fatila Shaib told reporters that the number of confirmed cases was up 56 percent from the 3,413 reported by the WHO on June 22.</p><p>4. The International Energy Agency expects natural gas consumption to decrease slightly this year</p><p>According to the latest quarterly report of the natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency on July 5th, global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year due to soaring prices and the possibility of further reduction in the supply of Russian natural gas, and it will slowly increase in the following years. The report said that global natural gas use this year is expected to shrink by 0.5% from 2021 levels; Global natural gas demand is projected to increase by only 140 billion cubic meters by 2025 compared to 2021.</p><p>5. Russia is about to impose windfall tax on natural gas giants with a total value of nearly $20 billion</p><p>On July 5, local time, the Russian parliament approved a temporary windfall tax on energy giant Gazprom. The move would pump the equivalent of nearly $20 billion into Russia's coffers as gas prices soar. Gazprom will pay an additional 1.25 trillion rubles ($19.72 billion) in mineral extraction taxes between September and November, or 416 billion rubles a month, under a bill passed by Russia's State Duma on Tuesday. The bill still needs the approval of the Council of the Russian Federation and the President.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STO\">Norwegian Oil</a>Industry Strike Ends</p><p>On the evening of July 5th, local time, with the intervention of the Norwegian government, the strike of Equinor, which started in the early morning of the same day, ended. The Norwegian government has reportedly intervened in the strike through the Compulsory Wage Board, a mandatory measure that the government can implement to stop ongoing labour disputes.</p><p>7. Great earthquake in British politics? Two senior officials announced their resignation on the same day, pointing the finger at Prime Minister Johnson</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suffered another serious political blow as two senior officials announced their resignations. On Tuesday (July 5th) local time, British Health Secretary Syed Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced their resignations one after another, and both pointed the finger at Prime Minister Johnson. In his resignation letter, Javid said he had lost faith in Johnson's ability to govern in the national interest after a series of scandals and said he could no longer serve in the Johnson administration in good conscience. Javid said many lawmakers and the public had lost confidence in Johnson.</p><p>8. Prime Minister appoints new Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary</p><p>On the evening of July 5th, local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the appointment of Nadim Zahavi to succeed Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Zahavi was previously the UK Education Secretary. Additionally, Steve Buckley has been appointed as the new Health Secretary, succeeding Javid. Barkley was previously Johnson's chief of staff.</p><p>9. Turkey says it will promote negotiations on Black Sea grain transportation corridors to achieve results as soon as possible</p><p>On July 5, local time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey will work hard to push for an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on the issue of food security transportation channels in the Black Sea. \"We will try to strengthen negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to achieve results within a week or ten days,\" said Erdogan, who said the crisis in Ukraine has disrupted access to the Black Sea region to transport grain and raised problems with grain trade. While Turkey is not suffering from global food shortages, some countries around the world, especially in Africa, are facing food crises. At present, Turkey is working with the United Nations and other relevant parties to solve this problem.</p><p>Situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Ukraine submits an application to join the OECD</p><p>Ukraine's state news agency reported on July 5 that on the same day, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmegar submitted an application to the Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Mathias Kolman, to join the OECD. Shmegar said Ukraine seeks to join the organization as soon as possible and that support from the OECD is essential for Ukraine's postwar recovery and development.</p><p>2. British Prime Minister Johnson spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky</p><p>On July 5, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a telephone meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to exchange updates on the latest developments following the G7 and NATO summits. Johnson said that the latest military equipment provided by Britain, including 10 kinds of artillery equipment and ammunition, will arrive in Ukraine in the next few days or weeks. Zelensky informed Johnson of the current situation in Ukraine and the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine front line. The two sides talked about the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference held a day earlier in Lugano, Switzerland, and Johnson said he welcomed Ukraine's reconstruction plans and looked forward to Britain hosting next year's conference.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249582036\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla Unveils Solar Extended Range Trailer Prototype to Range Electric Pickup Trucks</a></p><p>According to the reports of Electrek and other technology media, Tesla showed a prototype of a solar-powered extended range trailer for the first time at the IdeenExpo exhibition held in Hanover, Germany. Tesla says it can provide additional range to its electric pickup truck, the CyberTruck. In addition, the trailer is equipped with SpaceX's satellite Internet receiver, which allows owners to connect to the Internet in areas where there is no telecommunications signal.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249583502\" target=\"_blank\">Sword Points at Google, Apple and Other Tech Giants European Parliament Passes Two Milestone Acts</a></p><p>On July 5th, local time, the European Parliament overwhelmingly passed the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act respectively. Some lawmakers claim that the passage of the two laws is landmark and will be able to constrain the power of tech giants such as Google and Apple. It is reported that these two laws will come into effect around January 2024.</p><p>3. Volkswagen will close a production site in Russia</p><p>Volkswagen will close one of its two production sites in Russia, where it assembles cars under a contract with Russia's GAZ group, a German union said Tuesday. In March, Volkswagen announced that production at its factories in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod would be suspended until further notice due to Western sanctions.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249258727\" target=\"_blank\">Canada to destroy 13.6 million doses of expired AstraZeneca COVID vaccine</a></p><p>Health Canada announced on July 5 local time that 13.6 million doses of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine expired in the spring and will be destroyed. It is reported that this batch of 13.6 million doses of vaccines to be destroyed accounts for more than half of the total number of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines stored in Canada.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2248989013\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix: 'Stranger Things' Sets New Ratings Record</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, streaming giant Netflix said the latest season of \"Stranger Things\" has surpassed 1.15 billion total viewing hours. This means that this sci-fi drama has become the most popular English-language TV series in Netflix's history. Another one on Netflix's platform with more than 1 billion airtime hours is the Korean drama \"Squid Game\", which became popular all over the world last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249853938\" target=\"_blank\">Bridgewater's flagship fund said to yield as much as 32% in the first half</a></p><p>According to media reports citing sources, thanks to increased market volatility, Pure Alpha II, the flagship fund under Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, achieved a high return of 32% in the first half of this year. The Pure Alpha II fund rose 4.8% in June, raising its annualized return since its inception in 1991 to 11.4%, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249553688\" target=\"_blank\">Xiao Mo sings empty Tesla: It will fall more than 40% again</a></p><p>All along,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>They are among the companies that have attracted much attention on Wall Street and are among the most controversial. After Tesla's second-quarter deliveries fell short of expectations, bearish sentiment remained pervasive despite the company's record production in June. The latest investment bank to cut Tesla's price target is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。 Tesla shares could fall more than 40% from current levels, the bank said.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded in deep V overnight! U.S. debt surge boosts tech stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded in deep V overnight! U.S. debt surge boosts tech stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-06 07:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, the open low of U.S. stocks went high and staged a Jedi counterattack, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.75%, and most Chinese stocks rose; ② Commodities plummeted, US oil fell below $100, and gold hit the lowest closing price this year; ③ Under the worry of recession, the 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted; ④ The earthquake in British politics, two senior officials announced their resignation on the same day. Overseas markets</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed overnight, large technology stocks rose across the board</p><p>U.S. stocks moved higher on open low Tuesday and closed mixed, with lower Treasury Bond yields pushing tech stocks higher. By the close, the Nasdaq was up 1.75%, the S&P 500 was up 0.16% and the Dow was down 0.42%.</p><p>Big Tech Stocks All Rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>up 1.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>up 3.60%, Meta up 5.10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>up 4.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>up 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>up 3.30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2.55%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese stocks rose<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">Financial OneConnect</a>Up nearly 19%</p><p>Most popular Chinese stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>up 3.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>down 1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>up 2.78%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>up 3.63%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>up 1.82%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>up 11.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>down 1.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>up 2.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>up 4.78%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">Financial OneConnect</a>It rose by more than 19%, and its Hong Kong stocks rose by more than 40% the next day of listing. New energy vehicle stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose 3.84%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>up 6.11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.10%, Faraday Future 48.73%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed down across the board, all major stock indexes fell more than 2%</p><p>European stocks closed down across the board on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX down 2.91% and France's CAC40 down 2.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 2.86%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil plunged 8.2% and fell below the $100 mark</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 barrel mark, the lowest closing price in two months. The futures price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, at $99.50 per barrel, the largest decline since mid-March and the lowest closing price since May 10th.</p><p>Citigroup has warned it could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and $45 by the end of 2023 if a severe recession in demand arrives.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 2.1% on Tuesday to an eight-month low</p><p>Gold futures in New York closed sharply lower on Tuesday and hit their lowest close so far this year. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $37.60, or 2.10%, at $1,763.90 per barrel, the lowest closing price since early December.</p><p>Gold fell sharply on Tuesday along with silver, copper and other commodities. London copper closed down more than 4% below the $8,000 mark, hitting a recent 17-month low, as recession fears dominated the market. ICE cotton futures price once hit the lower limit.</p><p>6. The 2-5-year yield curve was once inverted under the worry of recession in the US debt</p><p>On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but later, as economic worries resurfaced, the yield rally reversed, falling to a low of 2.8%. Intraday, at one point, the 2-year yield was slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June, and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This inversion of the curve suggests that the market believes that a slowdown will eventually lead to a downward trend in short-term interest rates.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US State Department spokesman: There are no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran</p><p>Iran and the United States held indirect negotiations on the resumption of compliance with the JCPOA on the Iranian nuclear issue in Doha, Qatar, coordinated by the European Union, on June 28-29, but did not make the expected progress. On July 5, local time, US State Department spokesman Price said at a briefing that there are currently no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>2. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Omicron BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States</p><p>According to the data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 5th local time, the mutated Omicron strain BA.5 subtype of COVID-19 has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States. The data shows that BA.5 subtype infections currently account for 53.6% of new COVID-19 infections in the United States, while BA.4 subtype infections account for 16.5%, and the two together account for about 70% of the total number of COVID-19 infections.</p><p>3. WHO: More than 5,300 monkeypox cases have been reported worldwide, an increase of 56% in 8 days</p><p>On July 5th, local time, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of June 30th, 5,322 laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases had been reported in many countries around the world, of which one died. At a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Fatila Shaib told reporters that the number of confirmed cases was up 56 percent from the 3,413 reported by the WHO on June 22.</p><p>4. The International Energy Agency expects natural gas consumption to decrease slightly this year</p><p>According to the latest quarterly report of the natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency on July 5th, global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year due to soaring prices and the possibility of further reduction in the supply of Russian natural gas, and it will slowly increase in the following years. The report said that global natural gas use this year is expected to shrink by 0.5% from 2021 levels; Global natural gas demand is projected to increase by only 140 billion cubic meters by 2025 compared to 2021.</p><p>5. Russia is about to impose windfall tax on natural gas giants with a total value of nearly $20 billion</p><p>On July 5, local time, the Russian parliament approved a temporary windfall tax on energy giant Gazprom. The move would pump the equivalent of nearly $20 billion into Russia's coffers as gas prices soar. Gazprom will pay an additional 1.25 trillion rubles ($19.72 billion) in mineral extraction taxes between September and November, or 416 billion rubles a month, under a bill passed by Russia's State Duma on Tuesday. The bill still needs the approval of the Council of the Russian Federation and the President.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STO\">Norwegian Oil</a>Industry Strike Ends</p><p>On the evening of July 5th, local time, with the intervention of the Norwegian government, the strike of Equinor, which started in the early morning of the same day, ended. The Norwegian government has reportedly intervened in the strike through the Compulsory Wage Board, a mandatory measure that the government can implement to stop ongoing labour disputes.</p><p>7. Great earthquake in British politics? Two senior officials announced their resignation on the same day, pointing the finger at Prime Minister Johnson</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suffered another serious political blow as two senior officials announced their resignations. On Tuesday (July 5th) local time, British Health Secretary Syed Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced their resignations one after another, and both pointed the finger at Prime Minister Johnson. In his resignation letter, Javid said he had lost faith in Johnson's ability to govern in the national interest after a series of scandals and said he could no longer serve in the Johnson administration in good conscience. Javid said many lawmakers and the public had lost confidence in Johnson.</p><p>8. Prime Minister appoints new Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary</p><p>On the evening of July 5th, local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the appointment of Nadim Zahavi to succeed Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Zahavi was previously the UK Education Secretary. Additionally, Steve Buckley has been appointed as the new Health Secretary, succeeding Javid. Barkley was previously Johnson's chief of staff.</p><p>9. Turkey says it will promote negotiations on Black Sea grain transportation corridors to achieve results as soon as possible</p><p>On July 5, local time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey will work hard to push for an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on the issue of food security transportation channels in the Black Sea. \"We will try to strengthen negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to achieve results within a week or ten days,\" said Erdogan, who said the crisis in Ukraine has disrupted access to the Black Sea region to transport grain and raised problems with grain trade. While Turkey is not suffering from global food shortages, some countries around the world, especially in Africa, are facing food crises. At present, Turkey is working with the United Nations and other relevant parties to solve this problem.</p><p>Situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Ukraine submits an application to join the OECD</p><p>Ukraine's state news agency reported on July 5 that on the same day, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmegar submitted an application to the Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Mathias Kolman, to join the OECD. Shmegar said Ukraine seeks to join the organization as soon as possible and that support from the OECD is essential for Ukraine's postwar recovery and development.</p><p>2. British Prime Minister Johnson spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky</p><p>On July 5, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a telephone meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to exchange updates on the latest developments following the G7 and NATO summits. Johnson said that the latest military equipment provided by Britain, including 10 kinds of artillery equipment and ammunition, will arrive in Ukraine in the next few days or weeks. Zelensky informed Johnson of the current situation in Ukraine and the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine front line. The two sides talked about the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference held a day earlier in Lugano, Switzerland, and Johnson said he welcomed Ukraine's reconstruction plans and looked forward to Britain hosting next year's conference.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249582036\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla Unveils Solar Extended Range Trailer Prototype to Range Electric Pickup Trucks</a></p><p>According to the reports of Electrek and other technology media, Tesla showed a prototype of a solar-powered extended range trailer for the first time at the IdeenExpo exhibition held in Hanover, Germany. Tesla says it can provide additional range to its electric pickup truck, the CyberTruck. In addition, the trailer is equipped with SpaceX's satellite Internet receiver, which allows owners to connect to the Internet in areas where there is no telecommunications signal.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249583502\" target=\"_blank\">Sword Points at Google, Apple and Other Tech Giants European Parliament Passes Two Milestone Acts</a></p><p>On July 5th, local time, the European Parliament overwhelmingly passed the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act respectively. Some lawmakers claim that the passage of the two laws is landmark and will be able to constrain the power of tech giants such as Google and Apple. It is reported that these two laws will come into effect around January 2024.</p><p>3. Volkswagen will close a production site in Russia</p><p>Volkswagen will close one of its two production sites in Russia, where it assembles cars under a contract with Russia's GAZ group, a German union said Tuesday. In March, Volkswagen announced that production at its factories in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod would be suspended until further notice due to Western sanctions.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249258727\" target=\"_blank\">Canada to destroy 13.6 million doses of expired AstraZeneca COVID vaccine</a></p><p>Health Canada announced on July 5 local time that 13.6 million doses of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine expired in the spring and will be destroyed. It is reported that this batch of 13.6 million doses of vaccines to be destroyed accounts for more than half of the total number of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines stored in Canada.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2248989013\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix: 'Stranger Things' Sets New Ratings Record</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, streaming giant Netflix said the latest season of \"Stranger Things\" has surpassed 1.15 billion total viewing hours. This means that this sci-fi drama has become the most popular English-language TV series in Netflix's history. Another one on Netflix's platform with more than 1 billion airtime hours is the Korean drama \"Squid Game\", which became popular all over the world last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249853938\" target=\"_blank\">Bridgewater's flagship fund said to yield as much as 32% in the first half</a></p><p>According to media reports citing sources, thanks to increased market volatility, Pure Alpha II, the flagship fund under Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, achieved a high return of 32% in the first half of this year. The Pure Alpha II fund rose 4.8% in June, raising its annualized return since its inception in 1991 to 11.4%, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249553688\" target=\"_blank\">Xiao Mo sings empty Tesla: It will fall more than 40% again</a></p><p>All along,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>They are among the companies that have attracted much attention on Wall Street and are among the most controversial. After Tesla's second-quarter deliveries fell short of expectations, bearish sentiment remained pervasive despite the company's record production in June. The latest investment bank to cut Tesla's price target is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。 Tesla shares could fall more than 40% from current levels, the bank said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","USO":"美国原油ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea",".DJI":"道琼斯","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126427898","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位高官同日宣布辞职。海外市场1、隔夜美股收盘涨跌不一 大型科技股全线上涨美股周二低开高走，收盘涨跌不一，国债收益率走低推动科技股上涨。截至收盘，纳指涨1.75%，标普500指数涨0.16%，道指跌0.42%。大型科技股悉数上涨，苹果涨1.89%，亚马逊涨3.60%，Meta涨5.10%，谷歌涨4.16%，微软涨1.26%，奈飞涨3.30%，特斯拉涨2.55%。2、热门中概股多数走高金融壹账通涨近19%热门中概股多数走高，阿里巴巴涨3.56%，京东跌1.85%，拼多多涨2.78%，哔哩哔哩涨3.63%，百度涨1.82%，新东方涨11.28%，网易跌1.23%，爱奇艺涨2.52%，好未来涨4.78%；金融壹账通大涨超19%，其港股上市次日大涨超40%。新能源汽车股大涨，蔚来汽车涨3.84%，小鹏汽车涨6.11%，理想汽车涨6.10%，法拉第未来48.73%。3、欧股收盘全线下跌 主要股指均跌逾2%欧股周二收盘全线下跌，德国DAX指数跌2.91%，法国CAC40指数跌2.68%，英国富时100指数跌2.86%。4、美国WTI原油重挫8.2%跌破100美元关口原油期货价格周二大幅收跌，美国WTI原油期货跌破每桶100美元关口，创两个月来的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌8.93美元，跌幅为8.24%，报收于每桶99.50美元，创3月中旬以来最大跌幅，以及5月10日以来的最低收盘价。花旗集团警告称，如果需求严重衰退到来，到今年年底可能会跌至每桶65美元，到2023年底跌至45美元。5、纽约黄金期货周二收跌2.1% 创8个月新低纽约黄金期货价格周二大幅收跌，并创今年迄今的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格收跌37.60美元，跌幅为2.10%，报收于每桶1763.90美元，创12月初以来的最低收盘价。周二黄金与白银、铜和其他大宗商品一起大幅下跌。伦铜收跌逾4%，跌破8000美元关口，创最近17个月低点，经济衰退忧虑主导市场。ICE棉花期货价格一度触及跌停。6、美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂周二基准10年期美国国债收益率在海外交易中一度上涨10个基点至2.98%，但后来由于经济忧虑再度涌现，收益率涨势逆转，最低跌到了2.8%。盘中，2年期收益率一度自6月中旬以来首次略高于10年期收益率，并且自2020年3月以来首次高于5年期收益率。这种曲线倒挂现象表明市场认为经济放缓最终会导致短期利率下行。国际宏观1、美国务院发言人：没有与伊朗进行另一轮谈判的计划6月28日至29日，在欧盟的协调下，伊朗和美国在卡塔尔首都多哈就伊朗核问题全面协议恢复履约举行间接谈判，但没有取得预期的进展。当地时间7月5日，美国国务院发言人普赖斯在简报会上称，目前没有与伊朗进行另一轮谈判的计划。2、美疾控中心：奥密克戎BA.5亚型已成为全美导致新冠肺炎的主要毒株根据美国疾控中心当地时间7月5日公布的数据，变异新冠病毒奥密克戎毒株BA.5亚型已经成为全美导致新冠肺炎的主要毒株。数据显示，BA.5亚型感染病例目前占全美新增新冠病毒感染病例的53.6%，而BA.4亚型感染病例占16.5%，两者合计约占新冠病毒感染病例总数的70%。3、世卫组织：全球已报告超5300例猴痘病例 8天时间增长了56%当地时间7月5日，世界卫生组织（WHO）通报称，截至6月30日，全球多国已报告5322例经实验室确诊的猴痘病例，其中1人死亡。在日内瓦举行的简报会上，世卫组织发言人法蒂拉·沙伊布告诉记者，该确诊病例数比世卫组织6月22日通报的3413例增长了56%。4、国际能源署预期今年天然气消费小幅减少国际能源署7月5日发布的天然气市场最新季度报告显示，由于价格飙升以及俄罗斯天然气可能进一步减少供应，今年全球天然气消费将小幅减少，之后数年会缓慢增加。报告说，今年全球天然气使用量预期较2021年水平缩减0.5%；预计到2025年，全球天然气需求量仅比2021年增长1400亿立方米。5、俄罗斯即将对天然气巨头开征暴利税 总价值近200亿美元当地时间7月5日，俄罗斯议会批准对能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司征收临时暴利税。随着天然气价格飙升，此举将向俄罗斯国库注入相当于近200亿美元的资金。根据俄罗斯国家杜马周二通过的一项法案，俄气将在9月至11月期间额外支付1.25万亿卢布（约合197.2亿美元）的矿产开采税，即每月4160亿卢布。该法案仍然需要俄罗斯联邦委员会和总统的批准。6、挪威石油行业罢工结束当地时间7月5日晚，在挪威政府的介入下，挪威国家石油公司（Equinor）于当天凌晨开始的罢工结束。据报道，挪威政府通过强制工资委员会对罢工进行了干预，挪威强制性工资委员会是政府可以实施的一项强制性措施，以制止持续的劳资纠纷。7、英国政坛大地震？两位高官同日宣布辞职 矛头直指首相约翰逊随着两位高级官员宣布辞职，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊再次遭遇严重的政治打击。当地时间周二（7月5日），英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克相继宣布辞职，并且都将矛头指向了首相约翰逊。贾维德在辞职信中表示，在一系列丑闻之后，他对约翰逊为国家利益执政的能力失去了信心，并表示自己已无法再凭良心在约翰逊政府中任职。贾维德称，许多议员和公众都对约翰逊失去了信心。8、英国首相任命新的财政大臣和卫生大臣当地时间7月5日晚间，英国首相约翰逊宣布任命纳迪姆·扎哈维接替苏纳克为新任财政大臣。扎哈维此前为英国教育大臣。此外，史蒂夫·巴克利被任命为新任卫生大臣，接替贾维德。巴克利此前为约翰逊的幕僚长。9、土耳其称将推动黑海粮食运输通道谈判尽快取得成果当地时间7月5日，土耳其总统埃尔多安表示，土耳其将努力推动与俄罗斯和乌克兰就黑海粮食安全运输通道问题达成协议。埃尔多安说：“我们将努力加强与俄罗斯和乌克兰的谈判，争取在一周或十天内取得成果。”埃尔多安表示，乌克兰危机导致黑海地区运输粮食的通道中断，并引发粮食贸易问题。虽然土耳其并未因全球粮食短缺而遭遇困境，但世界上有些国家，特别是非洲国家正面临粮食危机。目前，土方正与联合国等有关各方一起，努力解决这一问题。俄乌局势1、乌克兰提交加入经合组织的申请乌克兰国家通讯社7月5日报道称，当天乌克兰总理什梅加尔向经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）秘书长马赛厄斯·科尔曼提交了加入经合组织的申请。什梅加尔表示，乌克兰寻求尽快加入该组织，来自经合组织的支持对于乌克兰战后复苏和发展至关重要。2、英国首相约翰逊与乌克兰总统泽连斯基通电话7月5日，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊与乌克兰总统泽连斯基进行了电话会晤，交流七国集团峰会和北约峰会后的最新进展。约翰逊表示，英国提供的最新军事装备，包括10种火炮装备及弹药，将在未来几天或几周时间内运抵乌克兰。泽连斯基向约翰逊告知了乌克兰国内目前的局势以及俄乌前线的最新进展。双方谈到一天前在瑞士卢加诺举行的乌克兰重建会议时，约翰逊表示欢迎乌克兰的重建计划，并期待英国主办明年的会议。公司新闻1、特斯拉公布太阳能增程拖车原型 可为电动皮卡续航综合Electrek等多家科技媒体报道，特斯拉公司在德国汉诺威举行的IdeenExpo展会上，首次展示了一款太阳能增程拖车原型。特斯拉称其可为旗下电动皮卡CyberTruck提供额外的续航里程。另外，这部拖车还配备了SpaceX的卫星互联网接收器，可以使车主在没有电信信号的地区接通互联网。2、剑指谷歌、苹果等科技巨头 欧洲议会通过两部里程碑法案当地时间7月5日，欧洲议会以压倒性多数分别通过了《数字服务法》和《数字市场法》。一些议员声称，这两部法律的通过具有里程碑意义，将能够约束谷歌、苹果等科技巨头的权力。据悉，这两部法律将于2024年1月前后生效实施。3、大众汽车将关闭位于俄罗斯的某个生产基地德国一家工会周二表示，大众汽车将关闭其在俄罗斯的两个生产基地之一，该公司根据与俄罗斯GAZ集团的合同在那里组装汽车。今年3月，大众汽车宣布，由于西方的制裁，其位于Kaluga和Nizhny Novgorod的工厂的生产将暂停，直到另行通知。4、加拿大将销毁1360万剂过期的阿斯利康新冠疫苗加拿大卫生部当地时间7月5日宣布，1360万剂阿斯利康新冠疫苗在春季过期，将被销毁。据悉，这批即将销毁的1360万剂疫苗占加拿大储存的阿斯利康新冠疫苗总数的一半以上。5、奈飞：《怪奇物语》创造了新的收视纪录当地时间周二，流媒体巨头奈飞表示，最新一季《怪奇物语》的总观看量已经超过了11.5亿小时。这意味着这部科幻剧已成为了奈飞史上最受欢迎的英语电视剧，奈飞平台上另一部播放时间超过10亿小时是去年火爆全球的韩剧《鱿鱼游戏》。6、桥水旗舰基金据称上半年收益率高达32%据媒体援引消息人士报道，得益于市场波动加剧，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金麾下旗舰基金Pure Alpha II在今年上半年实现了32%的高回报率。知情人士称，Pure Alpha II基金6月上涨了4.8%，将其自1991年成立以来的年化回报率提高到了11.4%。7、小摩唱空特斯拉：还要再跌超过40%一直以来，特斯拉都是备受华尔街关注，也争议最多的公司之一。在特斯拉第二季度的交付未达预期之后，尽管该公司在6月份的产量创下了历史最高纪录，但市场看空情绪依然弥漫。最新下调特斯拉目标价的投资银行是摩根大通。该行称，特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌超过40%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"DDG":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"GDX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"BND":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"UCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052365284,"gmtCreate":1655128090548,"gmtModify":1676535566336,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052365284","repostId":"2243019507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243019507","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪海内外最新宏观政策和经济走势，分享来自莫尼塔宏观团队的最新观点。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"钟正生经济分析","id":"70","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b"},"pubTimestamp":1655095529,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243019507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 12:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243019507","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's note:</b>In May 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations, and further highlighting the need for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. After the Federal Reserve officially started to shrink its balance sheet in June, the money market interest rate was generally stable, but the superimposed impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices is still worthy of vigilance.<b>Core Perspectives</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and it planned to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion each month, which would increase to $95 billion three months later. How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article tries to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet process, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Fed's operation in the last round of shrinking balance sheet was more cautious. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow;<b>2）</b>In order to avoid sending different policy signals when interest rates are cut at the same time as shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet early in August 2019, 2 months earlier than originally planned.</p><p><b>The macro background when the Fed shrank the balance sheet this time is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Unemployment in the United States is currently lower compared to 2017, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different from that of the past, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that in the 22-month period from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by about 15.7%. According to the shrinking balance sheet plan of the Federal Reserve this time, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve will decline by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).<b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong. If inflationary pressure intensifies, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its pace of shrinking the balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have some substitution. If the inflationary pressure in the United States eases, in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" of the economy, the Federal Reserve may also slow down its shrinking pace.</p><p><b>At present, the balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone great changes, especially the reverse repurchase agreement on the liability side and the scale and proportion of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly, which makes the liquidity disturbance of the shrinking balance sheet relatively low. One is</b>From the asset side, the proportion of MBS with great uncertainty in scale change has decreased, which reduces the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Second,</b>The scale of reverse repurchase agreements has increased sharply and the short-term interest rate is closer to the lower limit of interest rate, which means that the market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker cushion for the liquidity shock in shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third,</b>With the gradual normalization of U.S. fiscal policy, the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to the pre-epidemic level in the second half of the year, thus releasing certain liquidity to the market and alleviating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Fourth,</b>The introduction of standing repurchase facility can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence and reduce the probability of liquidity shortage.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although the initial market liquidity of the shrinking balance sheet may not be too disturbed, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet should not be underestimated from the perspective of its impact on asset prices</b>。 Since the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in May, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate returned from-0.90% on March 1st to 0.34% on May 10th, which reflects the impact of the market being further included in the shrinking balance sheet. The rise of US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the adjustment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion every month, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $95 billion every month after three months. This is in line with the results of the discussion in the minutes of the March meeting, but it does not specify the end point of shrinking balance sheet, only that it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it nearly reaches the \"adequate level\". How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article tries to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>Review of the Last Round of Fed Monetary Policy Normalization</b></p><p>After the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, in response to the economic recession, the Federal Reserve launched a series of unconventional monetary policy tools such as zero interest rate and quantitative easing. With the steady recovery of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and started the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to make a certain review of the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The last round of normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve began in May 2013. Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in a speech that \"if the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to gradually slow down its asset purchase in a future meeting\", sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to inadequate communication with the market, the financial market has experienced significant volatility, namely \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced the Taper schedule, and QE was cut month by month from January to October 2014 and finally ended. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve started its first rate hike after the financial crisis, but it \"tasted it\" after only 25BP in rate hike. It didn't start its second rate hike until December 2016, and since then it continuously raised its policy interest rate.</p><p><b>Focus on the shrinking balance sheet operation in the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</b>As the Fed's rate hike process deepens, shrinking balance sheet is also on the agenda. Starting from October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS at a rate of $6 billion and $4 billion per month, and increase them by $6 billion and $4 billion every three months in the next 12 months. It wasn't until a year later, in October 2018, that the Fed shrinking balance sheet pace peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion Treasury Bond + $20 billion MBS). This may reflect,<b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Federal Reserve preferred to mitigate the impact of liquidity tightening on financial markets through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, in August 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet early.</b>At the interest rate meeting in July 2019, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop its shrinking balance sheet from August of that year, which was two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe that there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet at that time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid interest rate cuts being carried out at the same time as shrinking balance sheet and sending out different policy signals.</b>At the interest rate meeting in August 2019, in response to sluggish inflation and the pressure of slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds target interest rate by 0.25%. As the Fed has repeatedly pointed out, the federal funds target rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when downward pressure on the economy increases and policy interest rates need to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet has to \"give way\" to interest rate cuts.</p><p><b>Second, the money market began to show a shortage of liquidity.</b>After the global financial crisis, with the launch of three rounds of QE, the interest rate control mechanism of the Federal Reserve has changed from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor\" System to an unconventional \"interest rate Floor System\". In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the deposit reserve rate (IOR) is the upper limit of interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operating rate is the lower limit of interest rate. When liquidity is abundant, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will run between the two. However, since mid-2019, with the continuous reduction of liquidity, Federal Funds rate began to break through the IOR as the upper limit. \"Money shortage\" incidents occurred frequently, and the \"interest rate floor\" system gradually moved towards the verge of failure. In the minutes of the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in July 2019, it was specifically mentioned that the reduction of reserves brought by the shrinking balance sheet led to large fluctuations in short-end interest rates, which also indicated that liquidity in the U.S. money market had begun to appear in shortage at that time. In October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Federal Reserve will conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Although there was a liquidity shortage in the late last round of shrinking balance sheet, the performance of the U.S. stock market was still relatively strong during the whole shrinking balance sheet, and it was not significantly impacted.</b>In the nearly one year since the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the U.S. stock market continued its previous upward trend. From the beginning of October 2017 to the end of September 2018, the S&P 500 index rose by 15.2%. Although there was a short correction in the stock market after that, it was mainly caused by the weakening of fundamentals. The US manufacturing PMI began to drop significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019, as the Federal Reserve continued to release \"dovish\" signals, U.S. stocks also began to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet are different</b></p><p>From the perspective of growth and employment, the two major aspects of the Fed's monetary policy, compared with the start of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macro background when the Fed shrank the balance sheet this time is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Unlike the low inflation, low unemployment rate at the beginning of 2017, the U.S. currently has lower unemployment but higher inflation against a backdrop where labor participation has not fully recovered. The U.S. CPI reached 8.5% year-over-year in March 2022, a new high in nearly 40 years. Moreover, under the impact of short-term factors such as the decline in inventory replenishment demand and the sharp increase in trade deficit, the U.S. GDP fell by 1.4% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The background of high inflation determines the different pace of this Fed shrinking balance sheet.</b>After Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Federal Reserve really started Taper at the end of 2013, and it didn't end until October 2014. After that, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to start its rate hike. The time lag between Taper and shrinking balance sheet reached 46 months, and the US federal benchmark interest rate at the time of shrinking had reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in order to cope with increasing inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet is faster than before.</b>Since the release of the Taper signal in the second half of 2021, the Fed's monetary policy normalization process has accelerated. In this round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the time interval between the opening of Taper and the shrinking balance sheet is only about half a year, and the pace of tightening is greatly accelerated compared with before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May indicated that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1st, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion every month, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $95 billion every month after three months. Not only is the initial shrinking balance sheet scale and pace much higher than that of the previous round (USD 10 billion/month, increasing by USD 10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet scale is also higher than that of the previous round of USD 50 billion per month.<b>The change in the scale and rhythm of the shrinking balance sheet will make the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve decline at a faster rate in this round: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve decreased by about 700 billion US dollars, or 15.7%. According to the shrinking balance sheet plan of the Federal Reserve this time, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve will decline by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong, and the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits are at a historically low position. Therefore, if the inflationary pressure in the United States intensifies, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its pace of shrinking the balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering the influence of \"temporary factors\" such as the decline in inventory investment and the increase in imports, the annual rate of the US economy fell by 1.4% in the first quarter. Regardless of whether these are temporary shocks, there is still debate, but the market and the Federal Reserve's concerns about a \"hard landing\" of the US economy are undoubtedly increasing. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effect of combination boxing. Therefore, if the inflationary pressure in the United States eases in the follow-up, the Federal Reserve may also slow down its pace of shrinking the balance sheet to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This is also in line with the vague statement at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May that \"it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it approaches the 'sufficient level'\".</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The balance sheet structure and policy instruments of the Federal Reserve are different this time</b></p><p><b>Studying the Fed's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from a discussion of its balance sheet.</b>From the asset side, the assets of the Federal Reserve are mainly the securities assets it holds, that is, all kinds of Treasury Bond and MBS purchased by it during the expansion of the table, accounting for nearly 95%; From the liability side, the Fed's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, Treasury deposits and reverse repurchase agreements, accounting for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, accounting for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, the proportion of Treasury Bond in the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and the current holding scale is about 5.7 trillion USD. The proportion of MBS in the total assets of the Federal Reserve dropped from 39.7% to 30.4%, but the scale also exceeded $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared with 2017, the difference between the liability side of the current balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is more obvious, and the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly.</b>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet in October, 2017, the general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Treasury in the Federal Reserve's liabilities were USD 185.1 billion and USD 374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of the total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%, which also led to the decline of the liabilities in the last round of balance sheet reduction, mainly through the decline of reserves. However, up to now, the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly. Among them, the scale of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance has reached 957.4 billion USD, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached 2.09 trillion USD, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two is close to the reserve scale.</p><p><b>As the current balance sheet structure and policy instruments of the Federal Reserve have changed greatly, the disturbance of liquidity in shrinking balance sheet may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>One is</b>，<b>From the asset side, the decline in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty when shrinking the sheet.</b>For Treasury Bond, because its maturity date and maturity scale are known, the pace of reduction of Treasury Bond is basically certain. However, there may be certain uncertainties in the reduction process of MBS. This primarily stems from: 1) the existence of an early repayment possibility with MBS, where borrowers can choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when they sell their home or refinance their mortgage; 2) From the perspective of the operational process, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is long, and the time interval between the receipt of the principal (resulting in a decrease in the holdings) and the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in the holdings) can be up to three months. In the last round of shrinking, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction scale was relatively higher, reaching 2/3 of the reduction scale of Treasury Bond. However, the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the maximum scale of the Fed's holdings reduction was $60 billion in Treasury Bond and $35 billion in MBS per month, and MBS accounted for a lower proportion of the holdings reduction, which means that the uncertainty of this round of shrinking balance sheet is relatively low.</p><p><b>Second, from the liability side, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that the liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, which can alleviate the liquidity shock brought by the shrinking balance sheet.</b>The reverse repurchase tool of the Federal Reserve is similar to the positive repurchase of the central bank of China. Both of them sell securities to financial institutions and agree to repurchase them after a period of time, so as to achieve the purpose of recovering excess liquidity in the market. Therefore, in the period of excess liquidity and low market interest rate, in order to obtain stable income, non-bank financial institutions will choose to invest funds in the reverse repurchase agreement of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, the interest rate of the reverse repurchase agreement becomes the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor under the sufficient reserve system, and the use of reverse repurchase tools also reflects the abundance of market liquidity to some extent.</p><p><b>Why is the current proportion of reverse repurchase agreements much higher than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet? Firstly</b>For banks, there is a cost in holding reserves. When the size of reserves held by banks increases, the size of their overall balance sheets will also expand, which in turn brings higher capital supervision requirements, so the willingness of banks to hold reserves will not grow indefinitely.<b>Secondly</b>The proceeds of banks holding reserves come from arbitrage transactions, that is, borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repo rate (between the ON RRP rate and the deposit reserve rate), and depositing this part of the funds in the Federal Reserve to obtain interest calculated at the deposit reserve rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the gains of an arbitrage trade. Around the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this spread remained at 25BP, while at present it is only 10BP, which undoubtedly dropped the arbitrage income of banks, thus limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity is accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, and non-bank financial institutions can only directly deposit this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also indicates that liquidity is currently more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower bounds of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculate the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP rates, respectively, representing the distance of short-term interest rates from the upper and lower bounds of interest rates. It can be found that before and after the start of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR is smaller, which means that the short-end interest rate is closer to the upper limit at that time; At present, the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates is smaller, and the short-end interest rate is closer to the lower limit, which reflects that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liability end of the Fed's balance sheet was mostly bank reserves. However, the current large increase in the scale of reverse repo agreements and the closer approach of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) to the lower limit of interest rates all show that the liquidity of both banks and non-bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Fed recycles liquidity through the shrinking balance sheet, the size of its bond holdings on the asset side of its balance sheet declines; For the liability side, the corresponding reduction can be achieved through the reduction of the scale of reverse repurchase agreement (instead of the reduction of reserve scale like the last round of shrinking balance sheet), thus reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance will also release certain liquidity</b>。 The high increase of the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance is another important feature of this shrinkage. Similar to the role of China's fiscal deposits, the changes of general deposits of the U.S. Treasury Department will also disturb market liquidity. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, although the scale of general deposits (TGA) of the Treasury Department in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve fluctuated to some extent, the total scale basically remained below 400 billion USD; After the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of financing by issuing Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, once reaching a daily amount of nearly $1.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2021, the size of the TGA declined rapidly with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill. In mid-2021, the U.S. government debt hit the ceiling, and it was difficult for the Treasury Department to continue to raise financing through bond issuance. The balance of TGA account kept declining, once falling to less than $60 billion, releasing a lot of liquidity to the market in the process. However, after the US government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond, and the size of TGA accounts had exceeded $900 billion at the end of April.<b>Looking forward, the U.S. fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the general deposit scale of the Treasury may slowly fall back to the pre-epidemic level in the second half of the year, which will release some liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity impact brought by the shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the launch of Standing Repo Facility (SRF) tool also reduces the probability of liquidity shortage.</b>Since mid-2019, there have been signs of liquidity shortages in the U.S. financial market, and the spot interest rate has continuously exceeded the ceiling of the federal funds target interest rate. In September 2019, under the influence of factors such as tax payment and Treasury Bond issuance, the EFFR was once higher than the deposit reserve interest rate by 20BP; In March 2020, the \"money shortage\" broke out again in the US financial market. The three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents the future borrowing cost, once rose to the high point since 2008, and the repurchase operation of the New York Fed was continuously oversubscribed. The frequent liquidity shortage has aroused the concern of the Federal Reserve: in July 2021, in order to solve the possible liquidity shortage in the process of monetary policy normalization, the Federal Reserve launched the SRF tool \"for a rainy day\". The instrument allows qualified dealers to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve at a certain interest rate, typically set as the upper end of the federal funds target rate, using Treasury Bond, ABS, or MBS as collateral.</p><p><b>SRF tools function mainly through two channels: one is</b>, as mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) will only function as an interest rate ceiling if there is plenty of liquidity. When liquidity began to tighten, some financial institutions were willing to borrow money from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing the short-end interest rate to break through the IOR as the upper limit of interest rates. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thus reducing the upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve depressed short-term interest rates through repurchase operations in September 2019 before the SRF tool was launched.<b>Second,</b>The introduction of the SRF instrument has strengthened the market's confidence in the stability of short-term interest rates, which in turn reduces the possibility of large fluctuations in market interest rates. As a result, the instrument can guarantee that the spot rate runs within the federal funds target rate range.</p><p><b>In addition, the use of SRF instruments is also an important window to observe the liquidity of financial markets</b>: When the liquidity of the financial market can meet the actual demand, financial institutions can successfully raise funds through the market, and the use of SRF instruments should be relatively low; When there is a shortage of liquidity in the financial market, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF instruments will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that started in 2017, the intensification of inflationary pressure may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. However, the uncertainty of inflation trend and the risk of \"hard landing\" of the US economy also make the Fed's follow-up shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the camera to observe the effect of \"combination boxing\" between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. The more important difference is that, from the perspective of the scale of reverse repurchase agreement, the liquidity of the US financial market is excessively abundant at present. With the possible decline of the general deposit scale of the subsequent Treasury Department and the early launch of SRF tools, the impact of this Fed shrinking balance sheet on market liquidity may be less than before.</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the time window for the end of shrinking balance sheet may be between the end of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the next interest rate cut.</b>In the past balance sheet operations, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that the target interest rate of federal funds is the main means of adjusting its monetary policy position. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data displayed by CME FedWatch Tool, the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve may end in mid-2023. Once the downward pressure on the US economy increases afterwards, the Federal Reserve will no longer tighten or even turn to easing again. By then, in order to avoid different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and to maintain the main position of interest rate measures in monetary policy, shrinking balance sheet will probably \"die\" by then.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although the initial market liquidity of shrinking balance sheet may not be too disturbed, asset prices may still fluctuate greatly.</b>Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced the upcoming shrinking balance sheet in early May, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds jumped from 0.07% on May 4th to 0.34% on May 10th (while the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds on March 1st was only-0.90%), which reflects the influence of the market being further included in the shrinking balance sheet. During the same period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It fluctuated at a high level above 103, causing the exchange rates of most non-US currencies to plunge sharply. U.S. stocks also showed a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key point of 4,000. Therefore,<b>From the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b>: The international geopolitical conflict is uncertain, the inflationary pressure in the United States exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the United States economy exceeds expectations, and the policy tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/70\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">钟正生经济分析 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-13 12:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's note:</b>In May 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations, and further highlighting the need for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. After the Federal Reserve officially started to shrink its balance sheet in June, the money market interest rate was generally stable, but the superimposed impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices is still worthy of vigilance.<b>Core Perspectives</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and it planned to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion each month, which would increase to $95 billion three months later. How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article tries to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet process, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Fed's operation in the last round of shrinking balance sheet was more cautious. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow;<b>2）</b>In order to avoid sending different policy signals when interest rates are cut at the same time as shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet early in August 2019, 2 months earlier than originally planned.</p><p><b>The macro background when the Fed shrank the balance sheet this time is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Unemployment in the United States is currently lower compared to 2017, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different from that of the past, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that in the 22-month period from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by about 15.7%. According to the shrinking balance sheet plan of the Federal Reserve this time, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve will decline by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).<b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong. If inflationary pressure intensifies, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its pace of shrinking the balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have some substitution. If the inflationary pressure in the United States eases, in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" of the economy, the Federal Reserve may also slow down its shrinking pace.</p><p><b>At present, the balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone great changes, especially the reverse repurchase agreement on the liability side and the scale and proportion of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly, which makes the liquidity disturbance of the shrinking balance sheet relatively low. One is</b>From the asset side, the proportion of MBS with great uncertainty in scale change has decreased, which reduces the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Second,</b>The scale of reverse repurchase agreements has increased sharply and the short-term interest rate is closer to the lower limit of interest rate, which means that the market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker cushion for the liquidity shock in shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third,</b>With the gradual normalization of U.S. fiscal policy, the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to the pre-epidemic level in the second half of the year, thus releasing certain liquidity to the market and alleviating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Fourth,</b>The introduction of standing repurchase facility can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence and reduce the probability of liquidity shortage.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although the initial market liquidity of the shrinking balance sheet may not be too disturbed, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet should not be underestimated from the perspective of its impact on asset prices</b>。 Since the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in May, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate returned from-0.90% on March 1st to 0.34% on May 10th, which reflects the impact of the market being further included in the shrinking balance sheet. The rise of US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the adjustment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion every month, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $95 billion every month after three months. This is in line with the results of the discussion in the minutes of the March meeting, but it does not specify the end point of shrinking balance sheet, only that it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it nearly reaches the \"adequate level\". How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article tries to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>Review of the Last Round of Fed Monetary Policy Normalization</b></p><p>After the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, in response to the economic recession, the Federal Reserve launched a series of unconventional monetary policy tools such as zero interest rate and quantitative easing. With the steady recovery of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and started the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to make a certain review of the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The last round of normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve began in May 2013. Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in a speech that \"if the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to gradually slow down its asset purchase in a future meeting\", sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to inadequate communication with the market, the financial market has experienced significant volatility, namely \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced the Taper schedule, and QE was cut month by month from January to October 2014 and finally ended. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve started its first rate hike after the financial crisis, but it \"tasted it\" after only 25BP in rate hike. It didn't start its second rate hike until December 2016, and since then it continuously raised its policy interest rate.</p><p><b>Focus on the shrinking balance sheet operation in the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</b>As the Fed's rate hike process deepens, shrinking balance sheet is also on the agenda. Starting from October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS at a rate of $6 billion and $4 billion per month, and increase them by $6 billion and $4 billion every three months in the next 12 months. It wasn't until a year later, in October 2018, that the Fed shrinking balance sheet pace peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion Treasury Bond + $20 billion MBS). This may reflect,<b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Federal Reserve preferred to mitigate the impact of liquidity tightening on financial markets through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, in August 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet early.</b>At the interest rate meeting in July 2019, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop its shrinking balance sheet from August of that year, which was two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe that there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped its shrinking balance sheet at that time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid interest rate cuts being carried out at the same time as shrinking balance sheet and sending out different policy signals.</b>At the interest rate meeting in August 2019, in response to sluggish inflation and the pressure of slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds target interest rate by 0.25%. As the Fed has repeatedly pointed out, the federal funds target rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when downward pressure on the economy increases and policy interest rates need to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet has to \"give way\" to interest rate cuts.</p><p><b>Second, the money market began to show a shortage of liquidity.</b>After the global financial crisis, with the launch of three rounds of QE, the interest rate control mechanism of the Federal Reserve has changed from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor\" System to an unconventional \"interest rate Floor System\". In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the deposit reserve rate (IOR) is the upper limit of interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operating rate is the lower limit of interest rate. When liquidity is abundant, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will run between the two. However, since mid-2019, with the continuous reduction of liquidity, Federal Funds rate began to break through the IOR as the upper limit. \"Money shortage\" incidents occurred frequently, and the \"interest rate floor\" system gradually moved towards the verge of failure. In the minutes of the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in July 2019, it was specifically mentioned that the reduction of reserves brought by the shrinking balance sheet led to large fluctuations in short-end interest rates, which also indicated that liquidity in the U.S. money market had begun to appear in shortage at that time. In October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Federal Reserve will conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Although there was a liquidity shortage in the late last round of shrinking balance sheet, the performance of the U.S. stock market was still relatively strong during the whole shrinking balance sheet, and it was not significantly impacted.</b>In the nearly one year since the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the U.S. stock market continued its previous upward trend. From the beginning of October 2017 to the end of September 2018, the S&P 500 index rose by 15.2%. Although there was a short correction in the stock market after that, it was mainly caused by the weakening of fundamentals. The US manufacturing PMI began to drop significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019, as the Federal Reserve continued to release \"dovish\" signals, U.S. stocks also began to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet are different</b></p><p>From the perspective of growth and employment, the two major aspects of the Fed's monetary policy, compared with the start of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macro background when the Fed shrank the balance sheet this time is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Unlike the low inflation, low unemployment rate at the beginning of 2017, the U.S. currently has lower unemployment but higher inflation against a backdrop where labor participation has not fully recovered. The U.S. CPI reached 8.5% year-over-year in March 2022, a new high in nearly 40 years. Moreover, under the impact of short-term factors such as the decline in inventory replenishment demand and the sharp increase in trade deficit, the U.S. GDP fell by 1.4% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The background of high inflation determines the different pace of this Fed shrinking balance sheet.</b>After Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Federal Reserve really started Taper at the end of 2013, and it didn't end until October 2014. After that, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to start its rate hike. The time lag between Taper and shrinking balance sheet reached 46 months, and the US federal benchmark interest rate at the time of shrinking had reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in order to cope with increasing inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet is faster than before.</b>Since the release of the Taper signal in the second half of 2021, the Fed's monetary policy normalization process has accelerated. In this round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the time interval between the opening of Taper and the shrinking balance sheet is only about half a year, and the pace of tightening is greatly accelerated compared with before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May indicated that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1st, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $47.5 billion every month, and it plans to reduce its holdings of assets by $95 billion every month after three months. Not only is the initial shrinking balance sheet scale and pace much higher than that of the previous round (USD 10 billion/month, increasing by USD 10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet scale is also higher than that of the previous round of USD 50 billion per month.<b>The change in the scale and rhythm of the shrinking balance sheet will make the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve decline at a faster rate in this round: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve decreased by about 700 billion US dollars, or 15.7%. According to the shrinking balance sheet plan of the Federal Reserve this time, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve will decline by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong, and the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits are at a historically low position. Therefore, if the inflationary pressure in the United States intensifies, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its pace of shrinking the balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering the influence of \"temporary factors\" such as the decline in inventory investment and the increase in imports, the annual rate of the US economy fell by 1.4% in the first quarter. Regardless of whether these are temporary shocks, there is still debate, but the market and the Federal Reserve's concerns about a \"hard landing\" of the US economy are undoubtedly increasing. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effect of combination boxing. Therefore, if the inflationary pressure in the United States eases in the follow-up, the Federal Reserve may also slow down its pace of shrinking the balance sheet to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This is also in line with the vague statement at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May that \"it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it approaches the 'sufficient level'\".</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The balance sheet structure and policy instruments of the Federal Reserve are different this time</b></p><p><b>Studying the Fed's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from a discussion of its balance sheet.</b>From the asset side, the assets of the Federal Reserve are mainly the securities assets it holds, that is, all kinds of Treasury Bond and MBS purchased by it during the expansion of the table, accounting for nearly 95%; From the liability side, the Fed's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, Treasury deposits and reverse repurchase agreements, accounting for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, accounting for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, the proportion of Treasury Bond in the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and the current holding scale is about 5.7 trillion USD. The proportion of MBS in the total assets of the Federal Reserve dropped from 39.7% to 30.4%, but the scale also exceeded $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared with 2017, the difference between the liability side of the current balance sheet of the Federal Reserve is more obvious, and the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly.</b>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet in October, 2017, the general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Treasury in the Federal Reserve's liabilities were USD 185.1 billion and USD 374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of the total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%, which also led to the decline of the liabilities in the last round of balance sheet reduction, mainly through the decline of reserves. However, up to now, the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly. Among them, the scale of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance has reached 957.4 billion USD, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached 2.09 trillion USD, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two is close to the reserve scale.</p><p><b>As the current balance sheet structure and policy instruments of the Federal Reserve have changed greatly, the disturbance of liquidity in shrinking balance sheet may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>One is</b>，<b>From the asset side, the decline in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty when shrinking the sheet.</b>For Treasury Bond, because its maturity date and maturity scale are known, the pace of reduction of Treasury Bond is basically certain. However, there may be certain uncertainties in the reduction process of MBS. This primarily stems from: 1) the existence of an early repayment possibility with MBS, where borrowers can choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when they sell their home or refinance their mortgage; 2) From the perspective of the operational process, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is long, and the time interval between the receipt of the principal (resulting in a decrease in the holdings) and the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in the holdings) can be up to three months. In the last round of shrinking, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction scale was relatively higher, reaching 2/3 of the reduction scale of Treasury Bond. However, the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the maximum scale of the Fed's holdings reduction was $60 billion in Treasury Bond and $35 billion in MBS per month, and MBS accounted for a lower proportion of the holdings reduction, which means that the uncertainty of this round of shrinking balance sheet is relatively low.</p><p><b>Second, from the liability side, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that the liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, which can alleviate the liquidity shock brought by the shrinking balance sheet.</b>The reverse repurchase tool of the Federal Reserve is similar to the positive repurchase of the central bank of China. Both of them sell securities to financial institutions and agree to repurchase them after a period of time, so as to achieve the purpose of recovering excess liquidity in the market. Therefore, in the period of excess liquidity and low market interest rate, in order to obtain stable income, non-bank financial institutions will choose to invest funds in the reverse repurchase agreement of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, the interest rate of the reverse repurchase agreement becomes the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor under the sufficient reserve system, and the use of reverse repurchase tools also reflects the abundance of market liquidity to some extent.</p><p><b>Why is the current proportion of reverse repurchase agreements much higher than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet? Firstly</b>For banks, there is a cost in holding reserves. When the size of reserves held by banks increases, the size of their overall balance sheets will also expand, which in turn brings higher capital supervision requirements, so the willingness of banks to hold reserves will not grow indefinitely.<b>Secondly</b>The proceeds of banks holding reserves come from arbitrage transactions, that is, borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repo rate (between the ON RRP rate and the deposit reserve rate), and depositing this part of the funds in the Federal Reserve to obtain interest calculated at the deposit reserve rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the gains of an arbitrage trade. Around the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this spread remained at 25BP, while at present it is only 10BP, which undoubtedly dropped the arbitrage income of banks, thus limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity is accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, and non-bank financial institutions can only directly deposit this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also indicates that liquidity is currently more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower bounds of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculate the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP rates, respectively, representing the distance of short-term interest rates from the upper and lower bounds of interest rates. It can be found that before and after the start of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR is smaller, which means that the short-end interest rate is closer to the upper limit at that time; At present, the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates is smaller, and the short-end interest rate is closer to the lower limit, which reflects that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liability end of the Fed's balance sheet was mostly bank reserves. However, the current large increase in the scale of reverse repo agreements and the closer approach of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) to the lower limit of interest rates all show that the liquidity of both banks and non-bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Fed recycles liquidity through the shrinking balance sheet, the size of its bond holdings on the asset side of its balance sheet declines; For the liability side, the corresponding reduction can be achieved through the reduction of the scale of reverse repurchase agreement (instead of the reduction of reserve scale like the last round of shrinking balance sheet), thus reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance will also release certain liquidity</b>。 The high increase of the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance is another important feature of this shrinkage. Similar to the role of China's fiscal deposits, the changes of general deposits of the U.S. Treasury Department will also disturb market liquidity. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, although the scale of general deposits (TGA) of the Treasury Department in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve fluctuated to some extent, the total scale basically remained below 400 billion USD; After the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of financing by issuing Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, once reaching a daily amount of nearly $1.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2021, the size of the TGA declined rapidly with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill. In mid-2021, the U.S. government debt hit the ceiling, and it was difficult for the Treasury Department to continue to raise financing through bond issuance. The balance of TGA account kept declining, once falling to less than $60 billion, releasing a lot of liquidity to the market in the process. However, after the US government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond, and the size of TGA accounts had exceeded $900 billion at the end of April.<b>Looking forward, the U.S. fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the general deposit scale of the Treasury may slowly fall back to the pre-epidemic level in the second half of the year, which will release some liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity impact brought by the shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the launch of Standing Repo Facility (SRF) tool also reduces the probability of liquidity shortage.</b>Since mid-2019, there have been signs of liquidity shortages in the U.S. financial market, and the spot interest rate has continuously exceeded the ceiling of the federal funds target interest rate. In September 2019, under the influence of factors such as tax payment and Treasury Bond issuance, the EFFR was once higher than the deposit reserve interest rate by 20BP; In March 2020, the \"money shortage\" broke out again in the US financial market. The three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents the future borrowing cost, once rose to the high point since 2008, and the repurchase operation of the New York Fed was continuously oversubscribed. The frequent liquidity shortage has aroused the concern of the Federal Reserve: in July 2021, in order to solve the possible liquidity shortage in the process of monetary policy normalization, the Federal Reserve launched the SRF tool \"for a rainy day\". The instrument allows qualified dealers to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve at a certain interest rate, typically set as the upper end of the federal funds target rate, using Treasury Bond, ABS, or MBS as collateral.</p><p><b>SRF tools function mainly through two channels: one is</b>, as mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) will only function as an interest rate ceiling if there is plenty of liquidity. When liquidity began to tighten, some financial institutions were willing to borrow money from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing the short-end interest rate to break through the IOR as the upper limit of interest rates. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thus reducing the upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve depressed short-term interest rates through repurchase operations in September 2019 before the SRF tool was launched.<b>Second,</b>The introduction of the SRF instrument has strengthened the market's confidence in the stability of short-term interest rates, which in turn reduces the possibility of large fluctuations in market interest rates. As a result, the instrument can guarantee that the spot rate runs within the federal funds target rate range.</p><p><b>In addition, the use of SRF instruments is also an important window to observe the liquidity of financial markets</b>: When the liquidity of the financial market can meet the actual demand, financial institutions can successfully raise funds through the market, and the use of SRF instruments should be relatively low; When there is a shortage of liquidity in the financial market, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF instruments will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that started in 2017, the intensification of inflationary pressure may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. However, the uncertainty of inflation trend and the risk of \"hard landing\" of the US economy also make the Fed's follow-up shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the camera to observe the effect of \"combination boxing\" between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. The more important difference is that, from the perspective of the scale of reverse repurchase agreement, the liquidity of the US financial market is excessively abundant at present. With the possible decline of the general deposit scale of the subsequent Treasury Department and the early launch of SRF tools, the impact of this Fed shrinking balance sheet on market liquidity may be less than before.</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the time window for the end of shrinking balance sheet may be between the end of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the next interest rate cut.</b>In the past balance sheet operations, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that the target interest rate of federal funds is the main means of adjusting its monetary policy position. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data displayed by CME FedWatch Tool, the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve may end in mid-2023. Once the downward pressure on the US economy increases afterwards, the Federal Reserve will no longer tighten or even turn to easing again. By then, in order to avoid different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and to maintain the main position of interest rate measures in monetary policy, shrinking balance sheet will probably \"die\" by then.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although the initial market liquidity of shrinking balance sheet may not be too disturbed, asset prices may still fluctuate greatly.</b>Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced the upcoming shrinking balance sheet in early May, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds jumped from 0.07% on May 4th to 0.34% on May 10th (while the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds on March 1st was only-0.90%), which reflects the influence of the market being further included in the shrinking balance sheet. During the same period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It fluctuated at a high level above 103, causing the exchange rates of most non-US currencies to plunge sharply. U.S. stocks also showed a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key point of 4,000. Therefore,<b>From the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b>: The international geopolitical conflict is uncertain, the inflationary pressure in the United States exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the United States economy exceeds expectations, and the policy tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243019507","content_text":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得警惕。核心观点2022年5月4日，美联储宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后增加到950亿美元。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。回顾上一轮美联储的缩表过程，可以发现：1）由于缺乏有效的参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，美联储并不急于大规模缩减其资产负债表，从引导紧缩到缩表步伐都相对缓慢；2）为了避免降息与缩表同时进行发出不同的政策信号，并缓解金融市场流动性短缺的情况，美联储于2019年8月提前停止了缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年相比，目前美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。这决定了本次美联储缩表的目的与以往不同，且节奏相对更快。我们估算，2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将表现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍较为强劲，若通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到加息与缩表具有一定替代性。若美国通胀压力有所缓和，为了避免经济“硬着陆”，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐。目前美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具出现了较大变化，尤其是负债端逆回购协议、财政部一般存款的规模和占比明显提升，这使得缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。一是，从资产端来看，规模变化存在较大不确定性的MBS占比下降，使得缩表的不确定性降低。二是，逆回购协议规模大幅上升、短端利率更接近利率下限，意味着市场流动性比上一轮缩表开始前更为充裕，为缩表的流动性冲击提供了更厚的缓冲垫。三是，随着美国财政政策逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的影响。四是，常备回购便利工具的推出可以在一定条件下提供流动性，并稳定市场信心，降低流动性短缺发生的概率。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。自5月美联储议息会议来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其实际利率从3月1日的-0.90%回归至5月10日的0.34%，即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。美债利率的攀升成为美股调整的重要催化。2022年5月4日，美联储公布5月FOMC议息会议声明，宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。这符合3月会议纪要讨论结果，但并未明确缩表终点，只表示将在快达到“充足水平”时减缓缩表节奏。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。一上一轮美联储货币政策正常化回顾2008年全球金融危机爆发后，为应对经济衰退，美联储推出了零利率、量化宽松等一系列非常规货币政策工具。而随着美国经济趋于稳定复苏，美联储于2013年末正式启动Taper，并在2017年10月开启缩表。而这也是美联储实施非常规货币政策以来唯一的一次缩表操作。因此，有必要对上一轮美联储货币政策正常化进行一定的回顾。美联储上一轮货币政策的正常化始于2013年5月，时任美联储主席伯南克在一次演讲中表示“如果发现美国就业市场持续好转，美联储可能在今后的某一次会议中开始逐步放慢购买资产的速度”，向市场传递了Taper信号。但由于与市场沟通并不充分，金融市场出现了显著波动，即“缩减恐慌（Taper Tantrum）”。2013年12月，美联储议息会议宣布Taper时间表，2014年1-10月逐月削减并最终结束QE。2015年12月，美联储开启了金融危机后的首次加息，但在仅加息25BP后就“浅尝辄止”,直至2016年12月才开始第二次加息，并在此后连续上调政策利率。重点观察上一轮美联储货币政策正常化中的缩表操作。随着美联储加息进程的深入，缩表也被提上日程。2017年10月开始，美联储决定以每月60亿美元、40亿美元的速度缩减其持有的国债、MBS，并在之后的12个月内按照每三个月增加60亿美元、40亿美元的速度递增。直到一年后的2018年10月，美联储缩表速度才达到每月500亿美元（300亿美元国债+200亿美元MBS）的峰值。这或许反映出，由于缺乏有效参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，当时的美联储更希望通过缓慢的、渐进式的缩表，减轻流动性收紧对金融市场的冲击。不过，2019年8月美联储提前停止了缩表。2019年7月议息会议上，美联储宣布将从当年8月起停止缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。我们认为，当时美联储停止缩表，主要有两方面原因： 一是，为了避免降息与缩表同时进行、发出不同政策信号。2019年8月议息会议上，为了应对低迷的通胀以及全球增长放缓的压力，美联储宣布将联邦基金目标利率下调0.25%。正如美联储反复指出的，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段。言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。因此，当经济下行压力加大，政策利率需要下调时，缩表要“让位”于降息。二是，货币市场开始出现流动性紧缺的情况。全球金融危机后伴随三轮QE的推出，美联储的利率调控机制已经从危机前的“利率走廊”体系（Corridor System）转变为非常规的“利率地板”体系（Floor System）。在“利率地板”体系中，存款准备金利率（IOR）作为利率上限，隔夜逆回购协议（ONRRP）操作利率则为利率下限，在流动性充裕时，联邦基金利率（EFFR）将在二者之间运行。但自2019年中开始，随着流动性的不断缩减，联邦基金利率开始突破作为上限的IOR，“钱荒”事件频发，“利率地板”体系逐渐走向失效边缘。2019年7月美联储议息会议纪要中特别提到，缩表带来的准备金减少导致短端利率大幅波动，也表明当时美国货币市场流动性已开始出现短缺。而在2019年10月美联储的声明中表示，为确保准备金充足，美联储将进行定期回购操作，以向市场注入流动性，降低货币市场风险。虽然上一轮缩表后期出现流动性紧缺，但整个缩表期间美国股市表现仍然较为强劲，并未受到明显冲击。上一轮缩表开始后的近一年时间里，美国股市延续了之前的上涨趋势，2017年10月初至2018年9月末，标普500指数涨幅达到15.2%。虽然之后股市出现短暂回调，但主要是由基本面的转弱所致，美国制造业PMI自2018年四季度开始明显回落。2019年初开始，随着美联储不断释放“鸽派”信号，美股也开始反弹。二本次美联储缩表的背景与目的不同从美联储货币政策关注的两大方面——增长与就业来看，与2017年10月开启缩表相比，本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年初的低通胀、低失业率不同，目前在劳动参与率尚未完全恢复的背景下，美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。2022年3月美国CPI同比达到8.5%，创下近40年来新高。并且，在补库存需求下滑、贸易逆差大幅增长等短期因素冲击下，2022年一季度美国GDP环比折年率下滑1.4%，经济开始出现滞胀迹象。高通胀的背景决定了本次美联储缩表的节奏不同。2013年5月时任美联储主席伯南克释放Taper信号后，2013年末美联储才真正开启Taper，直到2014年10月Taper才结束，此后又过了一年多的时间美联储才开始加息，从开始Taper到缩表之间的时滞更是达到了46个月，且开始缩表时的美国联邦基准利率已经达到1.25%-1.50%。但是，为了应对不断加剧的通胀压力，本轮美联储缩表的节奏要快于以往。从2021年下半年释放Taper信号开始，美联储的货币政策正常化进程便不断加速。本轮美联储货币政策正常化中，从开启Taper到缩表之间的时间间隔仅有半年左右，紧缩节奏较之前大大加快。美联储5月议息会议纪要表示将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。不仅初始缩表规模、节奏远高于上一轮（100亿美元/月，每三个月增加100亿美元），每月最大缩表规模亦高于上一轮的每月500亿美元。缩表规模与节奏的变化将使得本轮美联储资产负债表将以更快的比例下降：2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约7000亿美元，降幅15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将呈现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍然较为强劲，失业率、领取失业金人数等均处于历史较低位置。因此，若美国通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月其加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到美国经济在库存投资回落、进口大增等“暂时性因素”的影响下，一季度环比折年率下滑1.4%。不管对于这些是否属于暂时性冲击仍存争议，但市场和美联储对美国经济“硬着陆”的担忧无疑都是在增加的。况且，加息与缩表具有一定替代性，美联储亦会细加权衡组合拳的效应。因此，若后续美国通胀压力有所缓和，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐，以减小货币政策紧缩对经济的冲击。这也符合美联储5月议息会议上“将在快达到‘充足水平’时减缓缩表节奏”的模糊表述。三本次美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具不同研究美联储的缩表操作离不开对其资产负债表的讨论。从资产端来看，美联储的资产主要是持有的证券资产，即其在扩表时购买的各类国债、MBS等，占比接近95%；从负债端来看，美联储的负债包括现金、银行准备金、财政部存款以及逆回购协议，以上四项占比超过99%，尤其是银行准备金，占比超过40%。从资产端来看，与2017年10月相比，美联储持有的国债占比明显提升，而MBS占比相对较低。其中，国债在美联储总资产中的占比由2017年10月的55.3%上升至4月末的64.5%，目前持有规模约5.7万亿美元。而MBS在美联储总资产中的占比则由39.7%下降至30.4%，但规模也超过了2.7万亿美元。与2017年相比，当前美联储资产负债表负债端的差异更为明显，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比明显提升。2017年10月上一轮缩表开始时，美联储负债中的财政部一般存款、逆回购协议规模分别为1851亿美元、3749亿美元，占总负债的比重为4.2%、7.9%，而银行准备金占比超过50%，这也导致上一轮缩表时负债端的下降主要通过准备金规模下降实现的。但截至目前，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比均有明显提升，其中财政部一般存款规模达到9574亿美元，占比10.8%，逆回购协议规模更是达到2.09万亿美元，占比23.5%，二者之和已经接近准备金规模。由于美联储目前资产负债表结构以及政策工具均出现了较大变化，缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。 一是，从资产端来看，MBS占比下降使得缩表时的不确定性降低。对于国债来说，由于其到期日、到期规模可知，因而国债的减持步调基本是确定的。但是，MBS的减持过程可能存在一定不确定在。这主要来源于：1） MBS存在提前偿付的可能性，借款人在出售房屋或为抵押贷款再融资时，可以选择随时偿还任何额外的抵押贷款本金；2）从操作流程上看，MBS再投资的时间间隔较长，从收到本金（导致持有量减少）到相应的新 MBS 被添加到资产负债表（导致持有量增加）之间的时间间隔最长可达三个月 。在上一轮缩表时，MBS的占比较高，减持规模相对更高，达到了国债减持规模的2/3。但今年5月美联储议息会议显示，本轮缩表中美联储减持规模最多为每月600亿美元国债、350亿美元MBS，MBS在减持中的占比更低，这意味着本轮缩表的不确定性相对更低。二是，从负债端看，逆回购协议规模上升意味着市场上的流动性较为充裕，可以缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。美联储的逆回购工具与我国央行正回购的功能类似，都是通过向金融机构出售证券，并约定在一段时间后回购，来达到回收市场上多余流动性的目的。因此，在流动性过剩、市场利率较低的时期，非银金融机构为了获取稳定的收益，会选择将资金投向美联储的逆回购协议，逆回购协议利率由此成为充足准备金制度下，美联储利率走廊的下限，逆回购工具的使用量也在一定程度上反映了市场流动性的充裕程度。为何目前逆回购协议的占比均远高于上一轮缩表开始时？首先，对于银行来说，持有准备金是存在成本的。银行持有的准备金规模增加后，其整体资产负债表规模也将扩大，进而带来更高的资本监管要求，因此银行持有准备金的意愿并不会无限增长。其次，银行持有准备金的收益来自于套利交易，即按照市场回购利率（介于ON RRP 利率与存款准备金利率之间）从非银金融机构借入资金，并将这部分资金存入美联储，获得按存款准备金利率计算的利息。因此，存款准备金利率和ON RRP利率之间的价差衡量了套利交易的收益。上一轮缩表开始前后，这一利差保持在25BP，而目前仅为10BP，这无疑使得银行的套利收益下降，进而限制了其从非银金融机构借入资金的意愿。因而，大量的流动性淤积在非银金融机构中，非银金融机构只能直接将这部分资金存入美联储，导致目前逆回购协议的占比明显提升。目前联邦基金利率（EFFR）的相对位置同样表明，目前流动性较上轮缩表开始时更为充裕。如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）分别是联邦基金利率的上限和下限。我们分别计算了IOR与EFFR之差和EFFR与ON RRP利率之差，代表短期利率距离利率上限与下限的距离。可以发现，在上一轮美联储缩表开始前后，IOR与EFFR之间的差值更小，代表当时短端利率距离上限更为接近；而在目前，EFFR与ON RRP 利率的差值更小，短端利率距离下限更为接近，反映出的即是目前的流动性较上轮缩表开始时更加充裕。上一轮缩表开始时，美联储资产负债表负债端多为银行准备金，但目前逆回购协议规模的大增、以及联邦基金利率（EFFR）更接近利率下限，均表明无论是银行还是非银金融机构的流动性，均较上一轮缩表开始时更为充裕。因此，当美联储通过缩表回收流动性时，其资产负债表资产端持有的债券规模下降；而对于负债端来说，可通过逆回购协议规模的下降（而非像上一轮缩表一样，通过准备金规模的下降），实现相应的缩减，进而降低缩表对于准备金及市场流动性的冲击。三是，财政部一般存款规模的下降也将释放一定流动性。财政部一般存款规模的高增也是本次缩表时的另一项重要特点。与我国财政存款的作用类似，美国财政部一般存款的变动也会对市场流动性形成扰动。新冠疫情爆发前，美联储资产负债表中财政部一般存款（TGA）规模虽然有一定波动，但总规模基本保持在4000亿美元以下；疫情爆发后，美国财政部通过发行国债大量融资，TGA规模迅速上升，一度达到近1.8万亿美元的天量。2021年一季度，随着1.9万亿美元纾困法案的推出，TGA规模迅速下降。2021年中美国政府债务触及上限，财政部难以继续通过发债融资，TGA账户余额不断下降，一度降至不到600亿美元，在此过程中向市场释放了大量流动性。但2021年12月美国政府债务上限再次调升后，财政部通过发行国债迅速重建了其现金储备，4月末TGA账户规模已超过9000亿美元。往后看，美国财政政策也将逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而会向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。四是，常备回购便利（Standing Repo Facility，SRF）工具的推出也降低了流动性短缺发生的概率。2019年中开始，美国金融市场流动性便出现短缺迹象，即期利率不断突破联邦基金目标利率上限。2019年9月，在缴税及国债发行等因素的影响下，EFFR一度高于存款准备金利率20BP；2020年3月美国金融市场再度爆发“钱荒”，代表未来资金借贷成本的3个月FRA/OIS利差一度升至2008年以来高点，纽约联储回购操作连续遭超额认购。频繁发生的流动性短缺状况引发了美联储的关注：2021年7月，为了解决货币政策正常化过程中可能出现的流动性短缺问题，美联储“未雨绸缪”的推出了SRF工具。该工具允许合格交易商以国债、ABS或MBS为抵押品，以一定利率（通常被设定为联邦基金目标利率的上限）从美联储借入美元。SRF工具主要通过两个渠道发挥作用：一是，如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）只有在流动性充裕的情况下才会发挥利率上限的作用。当流动性开始紧张时，部分金融机构愿意以高于IOR的水平从市场借入资金，导致短端利率突破作为利率上限的IOR。SRF工具的功能简单来说便是，以一定的利率向市场释放流动性，进而降低利率的上行压力，正如2019年9月SRF工具尚未推出时，美联储通过回购操作压低短期利率一样。二是，SRF工具的推出增强了市场对于短期利率稳定的信心，进而降低了市场利率大幅波动的可能性。因此，该工具可以保证即期利率运行在联邦基金目标利率范围内。另外，SRF工具的使用量也是观察金融市场流动性状况的重要窗口：在金融市场流动性可以满足实际需求时，金融机构可通过市场顺利融资，SRF工具使用量应相对较低；而当金融市场流动性出现短缺时，金融机构会转而向美联储寻求流动性支持，SRF工具使用量也会相应上升。四小结总的来说，与2017年开启的缩表相比，通胀压力的加剧导致本次美联储缩表的节奏可能更快，但通胀走势的不确定性、以及美国经济“硬着陆”的风险，也使得美联储后续缩表的灵活性更强。与此同时，美联储也需细加权衡相机观察加息与缩表“组合拳”的效应。更重要的区别在于，从逆回购协议规模来看，目前美国金融市场的流动性已过度充裕，叠加后续财政部一般存款规模可能下降以及SRF工具的提前推出，本次美联储缩表对市场流动性的冲击或不及以往。 往后看，缩表结束的时间窗口或许在美联储本轮加息结束到下次降息之间。美联储在以往的资产负债表操作中曾多次声明，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段，言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。根据CME FedWatch Tool显示的数据，美联储本轮加息或将于2023年中结束。一旦之后美国经济下行压力加大，美联储将不再紧缩甚至再次转向宽松。届时，为了避免缩表与降息发出不同的政策信号，为了保持利率手段在货币政策中的主要地位，届时缩表大概率亦将“偃旗息鼓”。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但资产价格仍然可能出现巨大波动。自5月初美联储议息会议宣布即将开启缩表以来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其是10年期美债实际利率从5月4日的0.07%蹿升至5月10日的0.34%（而3月1日10年期美债实际利率仅为-0.90%），即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。同期，美元指数在103以上高位震荡，导致多数非美货币汇率急跌。美股也出现了明显回调，标普500指数一度跌至4000这一关键点位之下。因此，从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。风险提示：国际地缘冲突具有不确定性，美国通胀压力超预期，美国经济下行压力超预期，美联储政策紧缩力度超预期等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931588113,"gmtCreate":1662479764733,"gmtModify":1676537070202,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587038191942835","idStr":"3587038191942835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931588113","repostId":"1194157333","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194157333","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662463847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194157333?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-06 19:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple's Fall Launch Preview! What else besides the iPhone 14?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194157333","media":"新浪科技","summary":"北京时间9月8日凌晨1:00，苹果将举办今年的秋季发布会。除了iPhone 14外，今年还将有一大波新品一同亮相。从目前得到的消息来看，至少还会有3款Apple Watch，以及一款全新的AirPod","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>At 1:00 a.m. on September 8th, Beijing time, Apple will hold this year's autumn conference. In addition to iPhone 14, a large wave of new products will be unveiled together this year. According to the news so far, there will be at least 3 more Apple Watches, as well as a brand-new AirPods Pro true wireless headset.</p><p>Similar to the World Developers Conference (WWDC) in June this year, Apple will also hold a small offline conference at the headquarters campus of Apple Park, and at the same time, it will be broadcast live to the world through the Internet. The following are the new products we may see at this year's Apple hardware feast.</p><p><b>iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max</b></p><p><b>Receive significant upgrades</b></p><p>Apple will unveil the new iPhone 14 at this event in September, but I'm afraid the standard version won't be the star of this year. The ones that are really expected to get a big upgrade are the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/473585834c385d2f3608727e55c4c31e\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max are expected to usher in the following three new features: customizable off-screen display (Android phones have implemented this feature many years ago); A 48-megapixel rear camera with a larger-sized sensor; Replace the bangs design with smaller camera openings.</p><p>Speaking of openings, it was previously reported that iPhone 14 Max and Max Pro will reserve two independent openings for the camera and speaker, but when the screen is lit, the two will form a long pill shape. However, sources revealed that Apple will highlight the privacy indicators of the camera and microphone in the extra space between the two openings, and users can directly click here to know the current access information of these two hardware. It is also reported that Apple may optimize the camera application of Pro phones, moving the flash and autofocus buttons to the top of the screen, and other functions directly under the opening.</p><p>The phone will also be upgraded to an A16 processor, with the possibility of releasing two new color schemes: blue and dark purple. There are also rumours that both devices will support a 30-watt charger (but the phone itself may still not come with a USB-C interface) and the minimum RAM will be upgraded to 256GB from the previous 128GB. In addition, the Pro model also has the potential to feature a thinner bezel and a larger battery. However, it is precisely because of the integration of so many new features that Apple may raise the price of high-end iPhone.</p><p>The standard iPhone doesn't seem to be welcoming many major tweaks. Probably the biggest change for non-Pro models is the big 6.7-inch screen for the iPhone 14 Max. However, judging from the packaging flowing out of Apple's factory, Apple may not let the standard iPhone use the suffix Max, but will instead adopt Plus-the last time Apple used this suffix was the iPhone 8 Plus.</p><p>Name aside, renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has gotten word that the iPhone 14 (and Pro and Pro Max) may have an upgraded selfie camera with autofocus. The standard iPhone 14 is also likely to use the same A15 processor as the iPhone 13 series phones. But Apple may not release a mini model this year, which will undoubtedly disappoint small-screen phone enthusiasts.</p><p>Other rumors include that the iPhone may have a built-in satellite module to help users communicate off the cellular network in case of emergency. Before the release of last year's iPhone 13, rumors of satellite modules were rampant, and in February this year, satellite company Globalstar also purchased 17 new satellites to \"provide continuous satellite service for potential customers\"-the industry suspects that this \"potential customer\" is Apple. The name of Apple's \"Far Out\" conference this year also hints at this possibility.</p><p><b>New Apple Watch:</b></p><p><b>Series 8, SE and Pro</b></p><p>Apple is ready to launch 3 brand new Apple Watch models: the Watch Series 8, the new SE, and the rugged Pro model for extreme sports enthusiasts.</p><p>Start with Series 8 first. It is reported that the new generation of Apple Watch will use the new S8 chip, but the performance will not be much improved compared with S7 and S6 chips. Apple may not have a built-in blood pressure monitor in this product either, but it is possible to have a built-in body temperature sensor to make it easy to know if the user has a fever, and will have a built-in menstrual cycle tracking function.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a3b53a1c3abe4de5bbc77ec389328b\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the new Apple Watch SE is expected to replace the low-priced Watch Series 3. This product will also use the S8 chip, which is an upgrade from the S5 chip of the 2020 SE model. Other than that, I'm afraid this product won't change much, and the screen will remain consistent with the current SE.</p><p>As for the Apple Watch Pro, news is that it will come with a \"close to 2-inch screen\" and it is very resistant to shocks. The product will also feature a \"hard metal shell\" instead of a rubber frame as previously rumored. Reports suggest that the Pro model could feature a flat-sided display with a larger 47mm frame, larger than the 41mm and 45mm bezels of the previous Apple Watch Series 7. In addition, this new product may not fit the older Watch strap.</p><p>While the first-generation Pro product may not have a satellite module built in, future models may add this feature. It is reported that Apple is communicating this plan internally. Even without satellite capabilities, the watch won't be cheap-industry insiders expect it to be between $900 and $999.</p><p><b>New Generation AirPods Pro Unveiled</b></p><p>The AirPods Pro have not been upgraded since they were released in 2019. Now, almost 3 years later, Apple is finally on track to launch the AirPods Pro 2 at this year's Far Out event.</p><p>First of all, the appearance of this product may have been tweaked. The new AirPods Pro could be very similar to the Beats Fit Pro — with an in-ear wingtip design that eliminates the headphone handle altogether. Thanks to the built-in motion sensor, this product may focus on the motion tracking function.</p><p>Kuo also revealed that AirPods Pro will also support lossless audio, which is appealing to users who value sound quality. Additionally, the first offering of the AirPods Pro 2 will feature Apple's Lossless Audio Decoder (ALAC) — a feature not supported by even the high-end AirPods Max. At present, Bluetooth headphones usually compress the sound quality in order to ensure the transmission quality. If AirPods Pro 2 really supports ALAC, it is worth looking forward to how Apple can successfully break through the limitations of Bluetooth headphones.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6892bfd0a68d6f1d2177201320582fd\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, there are multiple media reports that Apple may adopt a different scheme. The company may instead add support for Bluetooth 5.2, which uses new decoders to improve audio delivery efficiency, resulting in improved sound quality or lower power consumption. A recent update to the Bluetooth SIG product database shows that Apple may adopt this technology in AirPods Pro, and this technology can also be mentioned in the code of iOS 16.</p><p>The charging case for the AirPods Pro 2 may also be upgraded. It may have a small speaker built in to allow users to make a sound while using the Find My app to Find a charging case. At present, only AirPods themselves can make sounds. If this function can be supported on the charging box, it can indeed provide convenience when the headphones are separated from the charging box.</p><p><b>Announcing iOS 16 and WatchOS 9 release times</b></p><p>We first heard about iOS 16 when Apple announced the information in June, while industry insiders said that Apple had wrapped up development last week, and the company may officially launch the final version of iOS 16 within a week of the iPhone 14 launch.</p><p>Several new features will be introduced in iOS 16, including editing and withdrawing messages and a custom lock screen interface. In addition, you can transfer notifications to the bottom of the lock screen interface, add Live Activities lock screen plug-in, and provide updates on real-time events, such as sports scores and takeaway progress.</p><p>Plus, the battery percentage is finally coming back, too, but probably not the kind of return that many people imagine. Fortunately, Apple may have found a way to compress the percentage indicator into the status bar of the iPhone 14 Pro, but it has abandoned the previous mode of displaying numbers and icons side by side.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813d37a1dd30d81b98ee69453046b88f\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition to iOS 16, Apple will also release watchOS 9 along with the three new Apple Watches. watchOS 9 beta has been available for a few months now, and the system may introduce some upgrades to the Apple Watch, including new running metrics, medication reminders, sleep tracking, passive atrial fibrillation monitoring, and new dial customization.</p><p><b>Is that all?</b></p><p>Now it seems that this is probably all about this year's Apple conference. Fortunately, in a few days, we can usher in another wave of new products. Apple may resume its pre-pandemic pattern: a new iPhone launch in September, and separate iPad and Mac launches in October.</p><p>By then, it is expected to usher in the iPad Pro equipped with M2 chip and the entry-level iPad equipped with A14 chip. It is rumored that Apple will also launch 3 new Macs, including the Mac mini, Mac Pro, and MacBook Pro, all of which will be powered by the M2 chip. iPadOS and macOS Ventura will probably launch at similar times.</p><p>Separately, the long-rumored Apple's mixed reality headsets are also highly anticipated, but they are unlikely to be released this year. Apple has made some progress, though. Recent trademark filings show that the company will adopt the Reality brand name for the new headset. Reports suggest that Apple's board of directors had trialled the product earlier this year. Kuo expects the device to be released in January 2023.</p><p>Remember the iPhone subscription lease earlier this year? From the current news, the service could be launched by the end of the year, when users can choose to \"rent\" an iPhone or iPad through a monthly fee.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple's Fall Launch Preview! What else besides the iPhone 14?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's Fall Launch Preview! What else besides the iPhone 14?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-06 19:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>At 1:00 a.m. on September 8th, Beijing time, Apple will hold this year's autumn conference. In addition to iPhone 14, a large wave of new products will be unveiled together this year. According to the news so far, there will be at least 3 more Apple Watches, as well as a brand-new AirPods Pro true wireless headset.</p><p>Similar to the World Developers Conference (WWDC) in June this year, Apple will also hold a small offline conference at the headquarters campus of Apple Park, and at the same time, it will be broadcast live to the world through the Internet. The following are the new products we may see at this year's Apple hardware feast.</p><p><b>iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max</b></p><p><b>Receive significant upgrades</b></p><p>Apple will unveil the new iPhone 14 at this event in September, but I'm afraid the standard version won't be the star of this year. The ones that are really expected to get a big upgrade are the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/473585834c385d2f3608727e55c4c31e\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max are expected to usher in the following three new features: customizable off-screen display (Android phones have implemented this feature many years ago); A 48-megapixel rear camera with a larger-sized sensor; Replace the bangs design with smaller camera openings.</p><p>Speaking of openings, it was previously reported that iPhone 14 Max and Max Pro will reserve two independent openings for the camera and speaker, but when the screen is lit, the two will form a long pill shape. However, sources revealed that Apple will highlight the privacy indicators of the camera and microphone in the extra space between the two openings, and users can directly click here to know the current access information of these two hardware. It is also reported that Apple may optimize the camera application of Pro phones, moving the flash and autofocus buttons to the top of the screen, and other functions directly under the opening.</p><p>The phone will also be upgraded to an A16 processor, with the possibility of releasing two new color schemes: blue and dark purple. There are also rumours that both devices will support a 30-watt charger (but the phone itself may still not come with a USB-C interface) and the minimum RAM will be upgraded to 256GB from the previous 128GB. In addition, the Pro model also has the potential to feature a thinner bezel and a larger battery. However, it is precisely because of the integration of so many new features that Apple may raise the price of high-end iPhone.</p><p>The standard iPhone doesn't seem to be welcoming many major tweaks. Probably the biggest change for non-Pro models is the big 6.7-inch screen for the iPhone 14 Max. However, judging from the packaging flowing out of Apple's factory, Apple may not let the standard iPhone use the suffix Max, but will instead adopt Plus-the last time Apple used this suffix was the iPhone 8 Plus.</p><p>Name aside, renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has gotten word that the iPhone 14 (and Pro and Pro Max) may have an upgraded selfie camera with autofocus. The standard iPhone 14 is also likely to use the same A15 processor as the iPhone 13 series phones. But Apple may not release a mini model this year, which will undoubtedly disappoint small-screen phone enthusiasts.</p><p>Other rumors include that the iPhone may have a built-in satellite module to help users communicate off the cellular network in case of emergency. Before the release of last year's iPhone 13, rumors of satellite modules were rampant, and in February this year, satellite company Globalstar also purchased 17 new satellites to \"provide continuous satellite service for potential customers\"-the industry suspects that this \"potential customer\" is Apple. The name of Apple's \"Far Out\" conference this year also hints at this possibility.</p><p><b>New Apple Watch:</b></p><p><b>Series 8, SE and Pro</b></p><p>Apple is ready to launch 3 brand new Apple Watch models: the Watch Series 8, the new SE, and the rugged Pro model for extreme sports enthusiasts.</p><p>Start with Series 8 first. It is reported that the new generation of Apple Watch will use the new S8 chip, but the performance will not be much improved compared with S7 and S6 chips. Apple may not have a built-in blood pressure monitor in this product either, but it is possible to have a built-in body temperature sensor to make it easy to know if the user has a fever, and will have a built-in menstrual cycle tracking function.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a3b53a1c3abe4de5bbc77ec389328b\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the new Apple Watch SE is expected to replace the low-priced Watch Series 3. This product will also use the S8 chip, which is an upgrade from the S5 chip of the 2020 SE model. Other than that, I'm afraid this product won't change much, and the screen will remain consistent with the current SE.</p><p>As for the Apple Watch Pro, news is that it will come with a \"close to 2-inch screen\" and it is very resistant to shocks. The product will also feature a \"hard metal shell\" instead of a rubber frame as previously rumored. Reports suggest that the Pro model could feature a flat-sided display with a larger 47mm frame, larger than the 41mm and 45mm bezels of the previous Apple Watch Series 7. In addition, this new product may not fit the older Watch strap.</p><p>While the first-generation Pro product may not have a satellite module built in, future models may add this feature. It is reported that Apple is communicating this plan internally. Even without satellite capabilities, the watch won't be cheap-industry insiders expect it to be between $900 and $999.</p><p><b>New Generation AirPods Pro Unveiled</b></p><p>The AirPods Pro have not been upgraded since they were released in 2019. Now, almost 3 years later, Apple is finally on track to launch the AirPods Pro 2 at this year's Far Out event.</p><p>First of all, the appearance of this product may have been tweaked. The new AirPods Pro could be very similar to the Beats Fit Pro — with an in-ear wingtip design that eliminates the headphone handle altogether. Thanks to the built-in motion sensor, this product may focus on the motion tracking function.</p><p>Kuo also revealed that AirPods Pro will also support lossless audio, which is appealing to users who value sound quality. Additionally, the first offering of the AirPods Pro 2 will feature Apple's Lossless Audio Decoder (ALAC) — a feature not supported by even the high-end AirPods Max. At present, Bluetooth headphones usually compress the sound quality in order to ensure the transmission quality. If AirPods Pro 2 really supports ALAC, it is worth looking forward to how Apple can successfully break through the limitations of Bluetooth headphones.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6892bfd0a68d6f1d2177201320582fd\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, there are multiple media reports that Apple may adopt a different scheme. The company may instead add support for Bluetooth 5.2, which uses new decoders to improve audio delivery efficiency, resulting in improved sound quality or lower power consumption. A recent update to the Bluetooth SIG product database shows that Apple may adopt this technology in AirPods Pro, and this technology can also be mentioned in the code of iOS 16.</p><p>The charging case for the AirPods Pro 2 may also be upgraded. It may have a small speaker built in to allow users to make a sound while using the Find My app to Find a charging case. At present, only AirPods themselves can make sounds. If this function can be supported on the charging box, it can indeed provide convenience when the headphones are separated from the charging box.</p><p><b>Announcing iOS 16 and WatchOS 9 release times</b></p><p>We first heard about iOS 16 when Apple announced the information in June, while industry insiders said that Apple had wrapped up development last week, and the company may officially launch the final version of iOS 16 within a week of the iPhone 14 launch.</p><p>Several new features will be introduced in iOS 16, including editing and withdrawing messages and a custom lock screen interface. In addition, you can transfer notifications to the bottom of the lock screen interface, add Live Activities lock screen plug-in, and provide updates on real-time events, such as sports scores and takeaway progress.</p><p>Plus, the battery percentage is finally coming back, too, but probably not the kind of return that many people imagine. Fortunately, Apple may have found a way to compress the percentage indicator into the status bar of the iPhone 14 Pro, but it has abandoned the previous mode of displaying numbers and icons side by side.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813d37a1dd30d81b98ee69453046b88f\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition to iOS 16, Apple will also release watchOS 9 along with the three new Apple Watches. watchOS 9 beta has been available for a few months now, and the system may introduce some upgrades to the Apple Watch, including new running metrics, medication reminders, sleep tracking, passive atrial fibrillation monitoring, and new dial customization.</p><p><b>Is that all?</b></p><p>Now it seems that this is probably all about this year's Apple conference. Fortunately, in a few days, we can usher in another wave of new products. Apple may resume its pre-pandemic pattern: a new iPhone launch in September, and separate iPad and Mac launches in October.</p><p>By then, it is expected to usher in the iPad Pro equipped with M2 chip and the entry-level iPad equipped with A14 chip. It is rumored that Apple will also launch 3 new Macs, including the Mac mini, Mac Pro, and MacBook Pro, all of which will be powered by the M2 chip. iPadOS and macOS Ventura will probably launch at similar times.</p><p>Separately, the long-rumored Apple's mixed reality headsets are also highly anticipated, but they are unlikely to be released this year. Apple has made some progress, though. Recent trademark filings show that the company will adopt the Reality brand name for the new headset. Reports suggest that Apple's board of directors had trialled the product earlier this year. Kuo expects the device to be released in January 2023.</p><p>Remember the iPhone subscription lease earlier this year? From the current news, the service could be launched by the end of the year, when users can choose to \"rent\" an iPhone or iPad through a monthly fee.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9kqSUZN6pdoFdaf4ReMgvQ\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ab05f805a20d19d22acf73d55b0842","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","AAPL":"苹果","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9kqSUZN6pdoFdaf4ReMgvQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194157333","content_text":"北京时间9月8日凌晨1:00，苹果将举办今年的秋季发布会。除了iPhone 14外，今年还将有一大波新品一同亮相。从目前得到的消息来看，至少还会有3款Apple Watch，以及一款全新的AirPods Pro真无线耳机。与今年6月的全球开发者大会（WWDC）类似，苹果也将在Apple Park总部园区举行小型线下发布会，同时将通过互联网向全球现场直播，而以下就是我们可能在今年这场苹果硬件盛宴上看到的新品。iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max获得重大升级苹果会在9月的这场发布会上推出全新iPhone 14，但标准版恐怕不会成为今年的明星。真正有望获得大幅升级的是iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max。iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max有望迎来以下三大新功能：可定制的息屏显示（安卓手机好多年前就已经实现了这项功能）；配备更大尺寸传感器的4800万像素后置摄像头；用更小的摄像头开孔取代刘海设计。谈到开孔，之前有报道称，iPhone 14 Max和Max Pro将给摄像头和扬声器预留两个独立开口，但当屏幕点亮时，二者又会形成一个长药丸形状。但有消息人士透露，苹果将在这两个开孔之间的额外空间来突出显示摄像头和麦克风的隐私指示器，用户可以直接点击此处来了解这两个硬件的当前接入信息。还有消息称，苹果可能会对Pro手机的相机应用进行优化，把闪光灯和自动对焦按钮挪到屏幕顶部，其它功能则直接位于开孔下方。这款手机还会升级到A16处理器，并有可能发布两个新的配色：蓝色和深紫色。还有传言称，这两款设备将支持30瓦充电器（但手机本身可能仍然不会配备USB-C接口），最低内存将从之前的128GB升级到256GB。此外，Pro机型还有可能采用更薄的边框和更大的电池。不过，正是因为整合了这么多的新特性，所以，苹果有可能上调高端iPhone的售价。标准版iPhone似乎不会迎来太多重大调整。非Pro机型最大的变化可能就是为iPhone 14 Max配备6.7英寸的大屏了。然而，从苹果工厂流出的包装来看，苹果可能不会让标准版iPhone使用Max这个后缀，而是会采用Plus——苹果上一次使用这个后缀还是iPhone 8 Plus。抛开名称不谈，著名苹果分析师郭明錤得到的消息显示，iPhone 14（以及Pro和Pro Max）可能升级自拍摄像头，配备自动对焦功能。标准版iPhone 14还有可能采用与iPhone 13系列手机相同的A15处理器。但苹果今年可能不会发布mini机型，这无疑会令小屏手机爱好者感到失望。其它传言还包括：iPhone可能会内置卫星模块，帮助用户在紧急情况下脱离蜂窝网络进行通讯。去年的iPhone 13发布前，卫星模块的传言就甚嚣尘上，而在今年2月，卫星公司Globalstar还购买了17颗新卫星“为潜在客户提供持续的卫星服务”——业内人士怀疑，这个“潜在客户”就是苹果。而苹果今年的“Far Out”发布会名称也暗示了这种可能性。新款Apple Watch：Series 8、SE和Pro苹果准备推出3款全新的Apple Watch机型：Watch Series 8、新版SE和专为喜欢极限运动爱好者准备的加固款Pro机型。先从Series 8开始。据悉，新一代Apple Watch将采用新的S8芯片，但性能上较S7和S6芯片并不会有太大提升。苹果可能也不会在这款产品中内置血压计，但有可能内置体温传感器，便于了解用户是否发烧，并将内置生理周期追踪功能。与此同时，新款Apple Watch SE有望取代低价Watch Series 3。这款产品也将采用S8芯片，较2020款SE机型的S5芯片有所升级。除此之外，这款产品恐怕不会有太大变化，屏幕将与现款SE保持一致。至于Apple Watch Pro，有消息称它将配备“接近2英寸的屏幕”，而且具备很强的抗冲击能力。该产品还将采用“坚硬的金属外壳”，而非之前传言的橡胶外框。有报道称，Pro机型可能采用平边显示屏，配备更大的47毫米外框，大于之前的Apple Watch Series 7的41毫米和45毫米边框。另外，这款新品可能无法适配老款Watch表带。虽然第一代Pro产品可能不会内置卫星模块，但未来的机型可能会增加这一功能。有报道称，苹果内部正在沟通这一方案。即便是没有卫星功能，这款手表的售价也不会便宜——业内人士预计在900至999美元之间。新一代AirPods Pro亮相自从2019年发布以来，AirPods Pro一直没有升级。现在，将近3年过去了，苹果终于有望在今年的Far Out发布会上推出AirPods Pro 2了。首先，这款产品的外观可能有所调整。新款AirPods Pro可能与Beats Fit Pro非常相似——采用入耳式翼尖设计，彻底取消耳机柄。由于内置运动传感器，这款产品可能把重点放在运动追踪功能上。郭明錤还透露，AirPods Pro还将支持无损音频，这对看重音质的用户很有吸引力。此外，AirPods Pro 2的首款产品将采用苹果无损音频解码器（ALAC）——就连高端AirPods Max都不支持这项功能。目前的蓝牙耳机为了保证传输质量，通常会对音质进行压缩，如果AirPods Pro 2果真支持ALAC，那么苹果如何成功突破蓝牙耳机的局限就非常值得期待。但有多家媒体报道称，苹果可能会采用不同的方案。该公司可能会转而增加对蓝牙5.2的支持，这种技术使用了新的解码器来提高音频传输效率，从而提高音质或降低耗电量。最近的蓝牙SIG产品数据库更新显示，苹果可能会在AirPods Pro中采用这项技术，而iOS 16的代码中也可提到了这项技术。AirPods Pro 2的充电盒也可能会升级。它可能内置一个小喇叭，以便用户在使用“Find My”应用寻找充电盒时发出声音。目前只有AirPods本身可以发声，如果能在充电盒上支持该功能，确实可以耳机与充电盒分离时提供便利。公布iOS 16和WatchOS 9发布时间我们第一次听说iOS 16是在苹果6月公布相关信息时，而业内人士表示，苹果已于上周结束了开发，该公司可能会在iPhone 14发布会结束后的一周内正式推出最终版iOS 16。iOS 16将引入多项新功能，包括编辑和撤回消息以及定制锁屏界面。此外还可以将通知转移到锁屏界面底部，增加Live Activities锁屏插件，提供实时事件的更新，比如体育比分和外卖进度等。另外，电池百分比也终于要回归了，但可能并不是许多人想象的那种回归。幸运的是，苹果或许找到了一种方式把百分比指示器压缩到iPhone 14 Pro的状态栏中，但却放弃了之前那种将数字与图标并排显示的模式。除了iOS 16外，苹果还会随同三款新的Apple Watch一起发布watchOS 9。watchOS 9 beta版已经推出几个月时间了，该系统可能为Apple Watch引入一些升级，包括新的跑步指标、服药提醒、睡眠追踪、被动心房颤动监测和新的表盘定制。就这些吗？现在看来，这大概就是今年苹果发布会的全部内容。好在过不了几天就可以迎来另外一波新品。苹果可能会恢复疫情前的模式：9月举行iPhone新品发布会，10月再单独举行iPad和Mac新品发布会。届时有望迎来搭载M2芯片的iPad Pro和搭载A14芯片的入门级iPad。有传言称，苹果还将推出3款新Mac，包括Mac mini、Mac Pro和MacBook Pro，这些设备都将搭载M2芯片。iPadOS和macOS Ventura大概会在相似的时间推出。另外，传言已久的苹果混合现实头显也备受期待，但他们不太可能会在今年发布。不过，苹果已经取得了一些进展。最近的商标申请文件显示，该公司将为新款头显采用Reality的品牌名称。有报道称，苹果董事会已于今年早些时候试用了这款产品。郭明錤预计该设备的发布时间是2023年1月。还记得今年早些时候的iPhone订阅租赁吗？从目前的消息来看，这项服务可能到年底推出，用户届时可以选择通过每月付费的方式“租用”iPhone或iPad。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}