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2022-08-26

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U.S. PCE Inflation Index Drops 0.1% in July, Core up 0.1%

2022-08-06

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With strong non-farm payrolls, has the logic behind the surge in US stocks in July truly failed this time?

2022-08-02

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Sandberg has officially stepped down as Meta's COO

2022-07-05

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Grey Market | Zhiyun Health fell 3% after previously receiving a 7.89-fold subscription.

2022-04-22

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-04-01

🙏🙏🙏

Xiaomi Group repurchased 7.269 million shares today, costing approximately HK$99.76 million.

2022-04-01

$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$ 👍👍👍

2022-03-16

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-02-20

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CICC Overseas: How do geopolitical risks affect asset prices?

2022-01-25

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Last night and this morning: US stocks experienced a "terrifying night"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.

2022-01-22

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Netflix's stock price has been stagnant for a long time, and the new year brings immense pressure.

2022-01-17

thanks

Innovative Intelligence begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.51.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661517180,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182117198?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 20:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. PCE Inflation Index Drops 0.1% in July, Core up 0.1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182117198","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. PCE inflation index drops 0.1% in July, core up 0.1%; Consumer spending rises 0.1% in July, bel","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. PCE inflation index drops 0.1% in July, core up 0.1%; Consumer spending rises 0.1% in July, below forecast; Personal incomes climb 0.2% in July; The 12-month increase in PCE drops to 6.3% from 6.8%.</p><p>U.S. stock futures pare losses after PCE inflation report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b1d40026820c9047b6b10728392ea7\" tg-width=\"407\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. PCE Inflation Index Drops 0.1% in July, Core up 0.1%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. PCE Inflation Index Drops 0.1% in July, Core up 0.1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-26 20:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. PCE inflation index drops 0.1% in July, core up 0.1%; Consumer spending rises 0.1% in July, below forecast; Personal incomes climb 0.2% in July; The 12-month increase in PCE drops to 6.3% from 6.8%.</p><p>U.S. stock futures pare losses after PCE inflation report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b1d40026820c9047b6b10728392ea7\" tg-width=\"407\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182117198","content_text":"U.S. PCE inflation index drops 0.1% in July, core up 0.1%; Consumer spending rises 0.1% in July, below forecast; Personal incomes climb 0.2% in July; The 12-month increase in PCE drops to 6.3% from 6.8%.U.S. stock futures pare losses after PCE inflation report.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905093866,"gmtCreate":1659762879358,"gmtModify":1703766391772,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905093866","repostId":"1130801060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130801060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659755733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130801060?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With strong non-farm payrolls, has the logic behind the surge in US stocks in July truly failed this time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130801060","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"强劲的非农打乱了市场对美联储转鸽拐点将至的叙述。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The strong non-farm payrolls report has disrupted market narratives that the Federal Reserve's dovish turn is approaching, posing a risk to the \"recession trading\" logic. Some analysts have even declared that the bear market rebound in US stocks is over! Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor released July non-farm payrolls data that far exceeded expectations. The total number of new jobs and the unemployment rate both returned to the levels before the outbreak of the pandemic in Europe and the United States in February 2020, with 528,000 new jobs, even more than double the market expectation of 250,000.</p><p>Faced with such a strong labor market, expectations of violent rate hike have reignited, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of a 75 basis point rate hike in September has been significantly boosted.</p><p>U.S. stocks turned lower amid aggressive rate hike expectations, with the S&P 500 declining for the second consecutive day and the Nasdaq closing down 0.5%. US Treasury yields surged, with the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curves reaching its largest level in two decades. the US Dollar Index rose sharply, hitting a new high in more than a week.</p><p>In recent weeks, the market has begun to bet that the Federal Reserve will soon \"give in\" and \"turn\" towards tightening in the face of the shadow of recession. Risk assets thus triggered a rebound, with US stocks surging and US Treasury yields plummeting.</p><p>Faced with strong non-farm payrolls, the previous \"recession trading\" seems to be starting to lose its footing, and some analysts have even declared that the bear market rebound in US stocks is over!</p><p>Federal Reserve officials' indiscriminate bombardment continues the market frenzy.</p><p>Following the second rate hike of 75 basis points in July, a major battle erupted between the market and the Federal Reserve. Even though the Fed issued its strongest tightening signal in decades, the market continued to \"do as it pleased\" and even helped US stocks achieve their best performance in recent years.</p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve dispatched one official after another to launch a rotating campaign, directly bombarding the market and loudly adopting hawkish stances.</p><p>San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the Fed is still far from finishing its fight against inflation, and if the labor market still shows no signs of slowing down, perhaps another 75 basis point rate hike would be more appropriate. Cleveland Fed President Mester pointed out that there is no convincing evidence that U.S. inflation has peaked, and the FOMC's rate hike in July will not be less intense than in June. The dovish president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve said there is still a long way to go to solve the problem of high inflation.</p><p>However, the market is not buying it and is betting that in the face of the shadow of recession, the Federal Reserve will soon turn to a tightening path and could start cutting interest rates as early as its September meeting. Guided by this expectation, asset prices began to soar, US stocks surged, and US Treasury yields plummeted.</p><p>Katie Nixon, Chief Investment Officer of Northern Trust Wealth Management, commented:</p><p>The market seems to be telling the Fed that you don't have to go as far as you want to go, and that you might start to reverse course at a faster pace, but is this sustainable in the face of a Fed that seems determined to fight inflation? Unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls put the \"recession trading\" logic at risk.</p><p>Just when the market was jubilant, believing they had won the game, Friday's non-farm payrolls report served as a wake-up call.<b>Job growth and wage growth have far exceeded economists' predictions, and the U.S. economy has not cooled down as quickly as the market had anticipated.</b></p><p>\"Good economic news is bad market news.\" Positive employment data for the economy may not support market confidence that US stocks will continue to rebound. Some analysts point out that the rise in US Treasury yields may indicate that the logic of \"recession trading\" may soon change, and the bear market rebound in US stocks will end.</p><p>According to Tradeweb data, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 2.838%, up from 2.674% on Thursday. Nevertheless, it is still far below the peak of 3.5% in 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Tony Crescenzi, portfolio manager at Pimco, said:</p><p>The unanimous rebound in stock and bond markets \"feels a bit premature,\" but investors no longer seem to believe in the Federal Reserve's ability to curb inflation. When the 10-year Treasury Bond yield climbed to 3% in the spring, it frightened investors, but higher yields may be needed next time.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>Chief strategist Steve Sosnick said that non-farm payrolls \"have indeed disrupted the market's narrative that the Fed's dovish turning point is approaching\" and are \"very unfriendly to financial markets.\"</p><p>John Lynch, Chief Investment Officer of Comerica Wealth Management, stated bluntly:</p><p>\"We believe this development marks the end of the recent bear market rebound in U.S. stocks. A major driver of the previous rise in U.S. stocks was investors' hope that the Federal Reserve would not be so aggressive in the future, which drove up growth and technology stocks.\"</body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With strong non-farm payrolls, has the logic behind the surge in US stocks in July truly failed this time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith strong non-farm payrolls, has the logic behind the surge in US stocks in July truly failed this time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-06 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The strong non-farm payrolls report has disrupted market narratives that the Federal Reserve's dovish turn is approaching, posing a risk to the \"recession trading\" logic. Some analysts have even declared that the bear market rebound in US stocks is over! Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor released July non-farm payrolls data that far exceeded expectations. The total number of new jobs and the unemployment rate both returned to the levels before the outbreak of the pandemic in Europe and the United States in February 2020, with 528,000 new jobs, even more than double the market expectation of 250,000.</p><p>Faced with such a strong labor market, expectations of violent rate hike have reignited, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of a 75 basis point rate hike in September has been significantly boosted.</p><p>U.S. stocks turned lower amid aggressive rate hike expectations, with the S&P 500 declining for the second consecutive day and the Nasdaq closing down 0.5%. US Treasury yields surged, with the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curves reaching its largest level in two decades. the US Dollar Index rose sharply, hitting a new high in more than a week.</p><p>In recent weeks, the market has begun to bet that the Federal Reserve will soon \"give in\" and \"turn\" towards tightening in the face of the shadow of recession. Risk assets thus triggered a rebound, with US stocks surging and US Treasury yields plummeting.</p><p>Faced with strong non-farm payrolls, the previous \"recession trading\" seems to be starting to lose its footing, and some analysts have even declared that the bear market rebound in US stocks is over!</p><p>Federal Reserve officials' indiscriminate bombardment continues the market frenzy.</p><p>Following the second rate hike of 75 basis points in July, a major battle erupted between the market and the Federal Reserve. Even though the Fed issued its strongest tightening signal in decades, the market continued to \"do as it pleased\" and even helped US stocks achieve their best performance in recent years.</p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve dispatched one official after another to launch a rotating campaign, directly bombarding the market and loudly adopting hawkish stances.</p><p>San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the Fed is still far from finishing its fight against inflation, and if the labor market still shows no signs of slowing down, perhaps another 75 basis point rate hike would be more appropriate. Cleveland Fed President Mester pointed out that there is no convincing evidence that U.S. inflation has peaked, and the FOMC's rate hike in July will not be less intense than in June. The dovish president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve said there is still a long way to go to solve the problem of high inflation.</p><p>However, the market is not buying it and is betting that in the face of the shadow of recession, the Federal Reserve will soon turn to a tightening path and could start cutting interest rates as early as its September meeting. Guided by this expectation, asset prices began to soar, US stocks surged, and US Treasury yields plummeted.</p><p>Katie Nixon, Chief Investment Officer of Northern Trust Wealth Management, commented:</p><p>The market seems to be telling the Fed that you don't have to go as far as you want to go, and that you might start to reverse course at a faster pace, but is this sustainable in the face of a Fed that seems determined to fight inflation? Unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls put the \"recession trading\" logic at risk.</p><p>Just when the market was jubilant, believing they had won the game, Friday's non-farm payrolls report served as a wake-up call.<b>Job growth and wage growth have far exceeded economists' predictions, and the U.S. economy has not cooled down as quickly as the market had anticipated.</b></p><p>\"Good economic news is bad market news.\" Positive employment data for the economy may not support market confidence that US stocks will continue to rebound. Some analysts point out that the rise in US Treasury yields may indicate that the logic of \"recession trading\" may soon change, and the bear market rebound in US stocks will end.</p><p>According to Tradeweb data, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 2.838%, up from 2.674% on Thursday. Nevertheless, it is still far below the peak of 3.5% in 2022.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Tony Crescenzi, portfolio manager at Pimco, said:</p><p>The unanimous rebound in stock and bond markets \"feels a bit premature,\" but investors no longer seem to believe in the Federal Reserve's ability to curb inflation. When the 10-year Treasury Bond yield climbed to 3% in the spring, it frightened investors, but higher yields may be needed next time.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>Chief strategist Steve Sosnick said that non-farm payrolls \"have indeed disrupted the market's narrative that the Fed's dovish turning point is approaching\" and are \"very unfriendly to financial markets.\"</p><p>John Lynch, Chief Investment Officer of Comerica Wealth Management, stated bluntly:</p><p>\"We believe this development marks the end of the recent bear market rebound in U.S. stocks. A major driver of the previous rise in U.S. stocks was investors' hope that the Federal Reserve would not be so aggressive in the future, which drove up growth and technology stocks.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666930\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666930","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1130801060","content_text":"强劲的非农打乱了市场对美联储转鸽拐点将至的叙述，“衰退交易”逻辑面临风险，更有分析师喊出了，美股熊市反弹结束！昨日，美国劳工部公布的7月非农大超预期，新增就业总数和失业率均回到2020年2月欧美疫情爆发前的水平，新增就业52.8万人甚至较市场预期的25万翻倍。面对如此强劲的劳动力市场，暴力加息预期重燃，美联储9月加息75个基点的预期大幅提振。在激进的加息预期下，美股转头下跌，标普两连阴，纳指收跌0.5%；美债收益率蹿升，2年期和10年期美债收益率曲线倒挂程度达二十年来最大；美元指数拉升走高，创逾一周新高。而在近几周来，市场开始押注在衰退阴霾面前，美联储将很快“屈服”，并在紧缩道路上“转向”。风险资产由此开启了一波反弹，美股大涨、美债收益率暴跌。在强劲的非农面前，此前的“衰退交易”似乎开始站不住脚，也有分析师喊出了，美股熊市反弹结束！美联储官员“狂轰滥炸” 市场依旧狂欢在7月第二次加息75基点后，市场与美联储之间开启了一场大战，即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号，市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。本周，美联储更是派出一位又一位官员开启车轮战，他们直接对着市场“狂轰滥炸” ，高声“放鹰”。旧金山联储主席Mary Daly表示，美联储离打击通胀结束还差得很远，如果劳动力市场仍然没有放缓的迹象，或许再次加息75个基点更为合适；克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特指出，并无任何令人信服的证据表明美国通胀已经见顶，FOMC的7月加息力度不会低于6月份；鸽派的旧金山联储主席称，解决高通胀问题还有很长一段路要走。然而市场并不买账，并押注在衰退阴霾面前，美联储将很快在紧缩道路上转向，最快在9月会议上就将启动降息。在这种预期的指引下，资产价格开始飙升，美股大涨、美债收益率暴跌。北方信托财富管理公司首席投资官Katie Nixon对此表示：市场似乎在对美联储说，你不必走你想走的那么远，而且你可能以更快的速度开始扭转方向，但面对一个似乎下定决心抗击通胀的美联储，这是否是可持续的？非农意外强劲 “衰退交易”逻辑面临风险市场在欢欣鼓舞，认为他们已经拿下了这一局的时候，周五的非农报告让其当头棒喝，就业增长和工资增长都远超过了经济学家的预测，美国经济并没有像市场想象的那样迅速降温。“经济好消息是市场坏消息”，对经济利好的就业数据，可能无法支撑美股将持续反弹的市场信心。有分析指出，美债收益率的攀升可能表明“衰退交易”逻辑可能很快发生转变，美股熊市反弹将结束。根据Tradeweb的数据，10年期美债的收益率为2.838%，高于周四的2.674%。尽管如此，仍远低于2022年的峰值3.5%。太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）投资组合经理Tony Crescenzi表示：股市和债市的一致反弹“感觉有点为时过早”，但投资者似乎不再相信美联储遏制通胀的能力，当10年期国债收益率在春季攀升至3%时，吓坏了投资者，但下一次可能需要更高的收益率。盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick称，非农就业“确实打乱了市场对美联储转鸽拐点将至的叙述”，“对金融市场非常不友好”。Comerica财富管理的首席投资官John Lynch更是直言：“我们认为这一发展标志着近期美股熊市反弹的结束。此前美股走高的一个主要驱动因素，便是投资者希望美联储在未来不会那么激进，这推动了成长股和科技股走高。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908786235,"gmtCreate":1659439471329,"gmtModify":1705980365070,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908786235","repostId":"1158615405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158615405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659438746,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158615405?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-02 19:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Sandberg has officially stepped down as Meta's COO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158615405","media":"新浪科技","summary":"辞职后，Meta COO一职将由Meta首席增长官哈维尔·奥利文接任。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On the evening of August 2nd, Beijing time, it is reported that the documents submitted by Meta to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) show that Sheryl Sandberg, the company's chief operating officer (COO), has officially stepped down on August 1st.</p><p>Sandberg announced on June 1 that she would resign as COO after 14 years in the role, but remain a director of the company. Following his resignation, the Meta COO role will be taken over by Javier Olivan, Meta's chief growth officer.</p><p>Sandberg only said at that time that he would leave this autumn, without giving a specific date. But Meta's SEC filing today shows that the transition is complete, with Sandberg stepping down as COO on Aug. 1. Next, Sandberg will remain as a Meta rank-and-file employee until Sept. 30, after which he will only serve as a Meta director.</p><p>For Meta, Sandberg's departure comes at a difficult time for the company. Meta just posted its first-ever quarterly revenue decline, while the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is also suing Meta to block its acquisition of VR fitness studio Within. On top of that, Meta still doesn't seem to be able to escape the \"Cambridge Analytica scandal\" of four years ago. In September, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Sandberg will both testify in court.</p><p>Of course, Sandberg's departure is also part of Meta's broader restructuring plan. On November 1 this year, Meta's Chief Financial Officer (CFO) David Wehne will move to Chief Strategy Officer (CSO), while current Vice President of Finance Susan Li will take over as CFO. Meta's move is aimed at boosting investor confidence, analysts said.</p><p>For Meta, Sandberg's departure is also a milestone event. Sandberg played a crucial role in Meta's growth. CEO Zuckerberg said in June that Sandberg's position is irreplaceable.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sandberg has officially stepped down as Meta's COO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSandberg has officially stepped down as Meta's COO\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-02 19:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On the evening of August 2nd, Beijing time, it is reported that the documents submitted by Meta to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) show that Sheryl Sandberg, the company's chief operating officer (COO), has officially stepped down on August 1st.</p><p>Sandberg announced on June 1 that she would resign as COO after 14 years in the role, but remain a director of the company. Following his resignation, the Meta COO role will be taken over by Javier Olivan, Meta's chief growth officer.</p><p>Sandberg only said at that time that he would leave this autumn, without giving a specific date. But Meta's SEC filing today shows that the transition is complete, with Sandberg stepping down as COO on Aug. 1. Next, Sandberg will remain as a Meta rank-and-file employee until Sept. 30, after which he will only serve as a Meta director.</p><p>For Meta, Sandberg's departure comes at a difficult time for the company. Meta just posted its first-ever quarterly revenue decline, while the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is also suing Meta to block its acquisition of VR fitness studio Within. On top of that, Meta still doesn't seem to be able to escape the \"Cambridge Analytica scandal\" of four years ago. In September, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Sandberg will both testify in court.</p><p>Of course, Sandberg's departure is also part of Meta's broader restructuring plan. On November 1 this year, Meta's Chief Financial Officer (CFO) David Wehne will move to Chief Strategy Officer (CSO), while current Vice President of Finance Susan Li will take over as CFO. Meta's move is aimed at boosting investor confidence, analysts said.</p><p>For Meta, Sandberg's departure is also a milestone event. Sandberg played a crucial role in Meta's growth. CEO Zuckerberg said in June that Sandberg's position is irreplaceable.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/internet/2022-08-02/doc-imizirav6467297.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8cb9bdea6cbcd9e478d878f9252d81","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/internet/2022-08-02/doc-imizirav6467297.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158615405","content_text":"北京时间8月2日晚间消息，据报道，Meta提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件显示，公司首席运营官（COO）雪莉·桑德伯格（Sheryl Sandberg）已于8月1日正式卸任。桑德伯格今年6月1日曾宣布，在任职14年之后，她将辞去COO职位，但继续担任公司董事。辞职后，Meta COO一职将由Meta首席增长官哈维尔·奥利文（Javier Olivan）接任。桑德伯格当时只是称，将于今秋离职，并未给出具体日期。但Meta今日提交给SEC的文件显示，这一过渡已完成，桑德伯格已于8月1日卸任COO。接下来，桑德伯格将以Meta普通员工的身份留任至9月30日，之后将只担任Meta董事。对于Meta而言，桑德伯格的离职正值公司处于一个艰难的时刻。Meta刚刚发布了其有史以来的首次季度营收下滑，而联邦贸易委员会（FTC） 也正在起诉 Meta以阻止其收购VR健身工作室Within。最重要的是，Meta似乎仍无法摆脱四年前的“剑桥分析丑闻”。今年9月，Meta CEO马克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）和桑德伯格都要此出庭作证。当然，桑德伯格的离职也是Meta更广泛的重组计划的一部分。今年11月1日，Meta首席财务官（CFO）大卫·韦纳（David Wehne）将转任首席战略官 （CSO），而现任财务副总裁苏珊·李（Susan Li）将接任CFO一职。分析人士称，Meta此举旨在增强投资者信心。对于Meta而言，桑德伯格的离职也是一个里程碑事件。在Meta的成长过程中，桑德伯格发挥了至关重要的作用。CEO扎克伯格6月份曾表示，桑德伯格的地位是不可替代的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"META":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070948609,"gmtCreate":1657001784301,"gmtModify":1676535930523,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070948609","repostId":"1105658399","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105658399","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657009124,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105658399?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-05 16:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Grey Market | Zhiyun Health fell 3% after previously receiving a 7.89-fold subscription.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105658399","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"公司拟全球发售1900万股股份，每股发售价30.50港元，每手100股。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>July 5th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>The grey market opened at HK$30.50, down about 3% in early trading. The company plans to offer 19 million shares globally at an offer price of HK$30.50 per share, with 100 shares per lot, resulting in a 50% success rate for one lot. Subscribing to 4 lots guarantees one lot, and the company is expected to list on July 6.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de1050c644ce6fcd3699447bd718d3\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tiger International has compiled relevant data in the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2671e03e3403c0a4411667eccb57e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>allocation results</b></p><p>Group A has 100 shares per lot, with a 50% success rate per lot. If you subscribe to 4 lots, you are guaranteed to win one lot.</p><p>Group B consisted of 200,000 shares and was allocated 22,900 shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7819cd827f21329851c6ee6ece5d4d5\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5aa94fa12f5adcc46760f326ae7570e9\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Company Profile</b></p><p><b>Zhiyun Health provides medical supplies and SaaS products to hospitals and pharmacies, digital marketing services to pharmaceutical companies, and online consultations and prescriptions for patients, all centered around chronic disease management.</b>。 Zhuyun Health expects to continue to generate most of its revenue from the sale of medical supplies to hospitals and pharmacies in the near future.</p><p>Zhiyun Health aims to lead China's digital chronic disease management market by providing solutions for all major players in the healthcare value chain, including hospitals, pharmacies, pharmaceutical companies, patients, and doctors. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, based on the number of SaaS deployments in Chinese hospitals and pharmacies as of December 31, 2021, and the number of online prescriptions filled through Zhiyun Health's services in 2021,<b>Zhiyun Health is China's largest provider of digital chronic disease management solutions.</b>。</p><p>Zhiyun Health provides in-hospital solutions, pharmacy solutions, and personal chronic disease management solutions.<b>In-Hospital Solutions</b>Including sales of medical devices, consumables and pharmaceuticals, hospital SaaS and digital marketing services for pharmaceutical companies, mainly selling medical devices and consumables.<b>Pharmacy Solutions</b>Including the sale of medical devices, consumables, pharmaceuticals and other types of goods, as well as Zhiyun Health's pharmacy SaaS, the medical supplies sold are mainly related to chronic disease management, and the pharmacy SaaS products enable pharmacies to have the ability to prescribe and dispense prescriptions online.<b>Personal Chronic Disease</b>Connect doctors with patients to achieve out-of-hospital consultations and prescriptions for chronic disease management.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da6982c8e85997d829bdce5eb7e88d7d\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of finance, the company's total revenue was RMB 524 million, RMB 839 million, and RMB 1.757 billion in 2019, 2021, and 2021, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 83.02%. The net losses for the same period were RMB 569 million, RMB 2.751 billion, and RMB 4.021 billion, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b796ddd650563bde7d5ed115446a17f2\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of industry, driven by favorable policies and continuous technological advancements, different sectors of the healthcare industry are experiencing a clear trend of accelerated digitalization, which has led to the rapid growth of China's digital health and wellness market. It is estimated that the size of the entire digital health and wellness market in China will reach RMB1,511.6 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 37.5% from 2020 to 2025, and further reach RMB4,165.2 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 22.5% from 2025 to 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e88e1fece44c5923d331f9fe58c661\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grey Market | Zhiyun Health fell 3% after previously receiving a 7.89-fold subscription.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrey Market | Zhiyun Health fell 3% after previously receiving a 7.89-fold subscription.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-05 16:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>July 5th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>The grey market opened at HK$30.50, down about 3% in early trading. The company plans to offer 19 million shares globally at an offer price of HK$30.50 per share, with 100 shares per lot, resulting in a 50% success rate for one lot. Subscribing to 4 lots guarantees one lot, and the company is expected to list on July 6.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de1050c644ce6fcd3699447bd718d3\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tiger International has compiled relevant data in the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2671e03e3403c0a4411667eccb57e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>allocation results</b></p><p>Group A has 100 shares per lot, with a 50% success rate per lot. If you subscribe to 4 lots, you are guaranteed to win one lot.</p><p>Group B consisted of 200,000 shares and was allocated 22,900 shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7819cd827f21329851c6ee6ece5d4d5\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5aa94fa12f5adcc46760f326ae7570e9\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Company Profile</b></p><p><b>Zhiyun Health provides medical supplies and SaaS products to hospitals and pharmacies, digital marketing services to pharmaceutical companies, and online consultations and prescriptions for patients, all centered around chronic disease management.</b>。 Zhuyun Health expects to continue to generate most of its revenue from the sale of medical supplies to hospitals and pharmacies in the near future.</p><p>Zhiyun Health aims to lead China's digital chronic disease management market by providing solutions for all major players in the healthcare value chain, including hospitals, pharmacies, pharmaceutical companies, patients, and doctors. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, based on the number of SaaS deployments in Chinese hospitals and pharmacies as of December 31, 2021, and the number of online prescriptions filled through Zhiyun Health's services in 2021,<b>Zhiyun Health is China's largest provider of digital chronic disease management solutions.</b>。</p><p>Zhiyun Health provides in-hospital solutions, pharmacy solutions, and personal chronic disease management solutions.<b>In-Hospital Solutions</b>Including sales of medical devices, consumables and pharmaceuticals, hospital SaaS and digital marketing services for pharmaceutical companies, mainly selling medical devices and consumables.<b>Pharmacy Solutions</b>Including the sale of medical devices, consumables, pharmaceuticals and other types of goods, as well as Zhiyun Health's pharmacy SaaS, the medical supplies sold are mainly related to chronic disease management, and the pharmacy SaaS products enable pharmacies to have the ability to prescribe and dispense prescriptions online.<b>Personal Chronic Disease</b>Connect doctors with patients to achieve out-of-hospital consultations and prescriptions for chronic disease management.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da6982c8e85997d829bdce5eb7e88d7d\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of finance, the company's total revenue was RMB 524 million, RMB 839 million, and RMB 1.757 billion in 2019, 2021, and 2021, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 83.02%. The net losses for the same period were RMB 569 million, RMB 2.751 billion, and RMB 4.021 billion, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b796ddd650563bde7d5ed115446a17f2\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of industry, driven by favorable policies and continuous technological advancements, different sectors of the healthcare industry are experiencing a clear trend of accelerated digitalization, which has led to the rapid growth of China's digital health and wellness market. It is estimated that the size of the entire digital health and wellness market in China will reach RMB1,511.6 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 37.5% from 2020 to 2025, and further reach RMB4,165.2 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 22.5% from 2025 to 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e88e1fece44c5923d331f9fe58c661\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f6d7d401e38bc1d5b9029d5bfb77710","relate_stocks":{"09955":"智云健康"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105658399","content_text":"7月5日，智云健康暗盘开盘报30.50港元，盘初跌约3%。公司拟全球发售1900万股股份，每股发售价30.50港元，每手100股，一手中签率50%，认购4手稳获一手，预期7月6日挂牌上市。老虎国际整理相关数据如下表：分配结果甲组每手100股，一手中签率50% ，认购4手稳中一手。乙组头为200000股，获配22900股股份。公司简介智云健康为医院和药店提供医疗用品和SaaS产品，为制药公司提供数字营销服务，为患者提供在线问诊和处方开具，所有均围绕著慢病管理。智云健康预期在不久的将来继续通过向医院和药店销售医疗用品产生大部分收入。智云健康通过为医疗价值链上的所有主要参与者（包括医院、药店、制药公司、患者和医生）提供解决方案，期望引领中国数字化慢病管理市场。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，基于截至2021年12月31日止的中国医院和药店SaaS部署量以及截至2021年透过智云健康的服务开出的在线处方量，智云健康是中国最大的数字化慢病管理解决方案提供商。智云健康提供院内解决方案、药店解决方案及个人慢病管理解决方案。院内解决方案包括销售医疗器械、耗材及药品、医院SaaS及面向制药公司的数字营销服务，主要销售医疗器械及耗材。药店解决方案包括销售医疗器械、耗材、药品及其他类别商品以及智云健康的药店SaaS，出售的医疗用品主要与慢病管理有关，而药店SaaS产品使药店拥有线上开方和配药的能力。个人慢病管理解决方案将医生与患者联系起来，为慢病管理实现院外问诊和处方开具。财务方面，公司2019 – 2021年的总收入分别为5.24亿、8.39亿、17.57亿人民币，2019 – 2021年的复合增长率达83.02%；同期净亏损分别为5.69亿、27.51亿、40.21亿人民币。行业方面，在有利的政策和持续的技术进步的推动下，医疗卫生行业的不同部门都有明显的加速数字化趋势，这导致了中国数字化健康和保健市场的快速增长。预计2025年中国整个数字化健康和保健市场的规模将达到人民币15,116亿元，从2020年到2025年的年复合增长率为37.5%，并在2030年进一步达到人民币41,652亿元，从2025年到2030年的年复合增长率为22.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09955":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082540616,"gmtCreate":1650587307251,"gmtModify":1676534758209,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082540616","repostId":"2229138329","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011395039,"gmtCreate":1648815371958,"gmtModify":1676534403343,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙏🙏🙏","listText":"🙏🙏🙏","text":"🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011395039","repostId":"1153595974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153595974","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648813559,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153595974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-01 19:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Xiaomi Group repurchased 7.269 million shares today, costing approximately HK$99.76 million.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153595974","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月1日，小米集团在港交所发布公告称，2022年4月1日回购726.9万股股票，价格为13.56港元-13.82港元，共耗资约9976万港元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 1, Xiaomi Group issued an announcement on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange stating that it repurchased 7.269 million shares on April 1, 2022, at prices ranging from HK$13.56 to HK$13.82, for a total cost of approximately HK$99.76 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da9a0760bb101a3f33c20c9a6b8f8a91\" tg-width=\"1563\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xiaomi Group repurchased 7.269 million shares today, costing approximately HK$99.76 million.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiaomi Group repurchased 7.269 million shares today, costing approximately HK$99.76 million.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-01 19:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 1, Xiaomi Group issued an announcement on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange stating that it repurchased 7.269 million shares on April 1, 2022, at prices ranging from HK$13.56 to HK$13.82, for a total cost of approximately HK$99.76 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da9a0760bb101a3f33c20c9a6b8f8a91\" tg-width=\"1563\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b330c7a5fe2b62c4d008bd67f85ddd","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153595974","content_text":"4月1日，小米集团在港交所发布公告称，2022年4月1日回购726.9万股股票，价格为13.56港元-13.82港元，共耗资约9976万港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011396508,"gmtCreate":1648815164687,"gmtModify":1676534403173,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/A17U.SI\">$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;👍👍👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/A17U.SI\">$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;👍👍👍","text":"$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$ 👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011396508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032244460,"gmtCreate":1647391954892,"gmtModify":1676534223763,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032244460","repostId":"1136839858","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097361627,"gmtCreate":1645339019977,"gmtModify":1676534020301,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097361627","repostId":"1142549921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142549921","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1645326437,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142549921?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-20 11:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: How do geopolitical risks affect asset prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142549921","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要年初以来，地缘风险有升温迹象，成为全球资产定价主线之一。我们结合历次经验的一般性特征，以及此次局势的可能不同点两个角度出发，梳理可能演变与影响。一、地缘冲突的一般性规律：短期冲击风险偏好，但影响有","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, geopolitical risks have shown signs of escalating and have become one of the main themes in global asset pricing. We analyze the possible evolution and impact from two perspectives: the general characteristics of previous experiences and the possible differences in this situation.</p><p><b>I. General Patterns of Geopolitical Conflicts: Short-term shock risk appetite, but the impact is limited and mostly transient, and does not change the original trend.</b></p><p><b>1）</b>In the short term, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict will suppress risk appetite, causing safe-haven assets to benefit while risky assets to suffer.<b>2）</b>Among different markets, emerging markets are generally more affected than developed markets, mainly because emerging markets have a higher risk premium than developed markets.<b>3）</b>In terms of the extent and duration of the impact, local conflicts will not have a particularly significant impact on major assets and will last relatively short.<b>4）</b>From the perspective of impact patterns, shocks are often impulsive and do not completely change the original trend. After the conflict, various assets will quickly rebound to repair lost ground.</p><p><b>II. The \"Special Nature\" of the Russia-Ukraine Situation: Disturbing Inflation Levels and Monetary Tightening Expectations Through Energy Prices</b></p><p>Because Russia plays a crucial role in the supply of key resources, if subsequent sanctions are imposed due to this geopolitical conflict...<b>This could trigger \"collateral losses\" in the supply gap of some assets, and the impact of the latter could be far greater than the short-term shock caused solely by risk appetite.</b>The main conduction path is,<b>1）</b>The supply premium pushes up crude oil prices, which in turn affects inflation expectations and the path of tightening. If oil prices rise to $120 while other prices remain unchanged, we estimate that the US CPI may increase by an additional 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.<b>2）</b>Nord Stream 2 may further exacerbate the shortage in Europe's energy market.<b>3）</b>Potential financial and export sanctions will also affect Russia's fiscal revenue, which in turn will affect its exchange rate and foreign debt repayment capacity.</p><p><b>Third, if the situation escalates, how should we respond and mitigate the risks? Traditional safe-haven assets, volatility hedging, oil prices</b></p><p>From a purely risk-averse perspective,<b>VIX > US Treasury Bond > Japanese Treasury Bond > Japanese Yen > Gold</b>。 Potential hedging options are:<b>1) Buy traditional safe-haven or defensive assets</b>。 Such as gold and the US-Japan Treasury Bond, defensive sectors in the stock market. However, the rising inflation expectations and monetary tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.<b>2) Hedging through bullish volatility VIX</b>。 However, the downside is that once the situation calms down, volatility will decline very quickly, and there is a loss of time value. Therefore, it is necessary to close positions in time after making a profit rather than holding them for the long term, otherwise you will be dragged down by it.<b>3）</b>Crude oil, which has benefited from the supply premium this time, may also have a certain hedging effect.</p><p><b>This week's focus: Geopolitical risks persist; how can they affect asset prices and hedge against potential risks?</b></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, global geopolitical risks have shown signs of escalating, and the continued tension in Russia-Ukraine relations has attracted much attention and become one of the main themes in global asset pricing recently. For example, while risk aversion pushed up gold and the US Dollar Index and suppressed US Treasury yields, it also increased selling pressure on some risky assets such as Nasdaq growth stocks. Concerns about the risk of sanctions against Russia pushed crude oil prices higher, which in turn increased market concerns about already high inflationary pressures and the pace of monetary tightening.<b>It is not difficult to see that, given its important role in the pricing of some resources, the evolution of the situation between Russia and Ukraine may have far-reaching consequences.</b>。</p><p>Although we cannot make an accurate judgment on the subsequent evolution of the situation (the recent mix of information has made the situation even more unpredictable), this does not prevent us from combining the general characteristics of asset performance during previous geopolitical risks and local conflicts, as well as the possible differences in this situation, to sort out the possible evolution and impact in different scenarios for investors' reference.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fdf8b4b446120fa8f3c89582607b9c\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>I. General Patterns of Geopolitical Conflicts: Short-term shock risk appetite, but the impact is limited and mostly transient, and does not change the original trend.</b></p><p><b>Geopolitical risks, especially regional conflicts, are often difficult to predict accurately due to their suddenness. However, this is precisely why such events can cause impulsive and instantaneous shocks to global risk assets and markets.</b>。 For example, after the better-than-expected US CPI in January triggered a rise in rate hike expectations last Thursday, 10-year US Treasury bonds once surged to over 2% (\"Where Have rate hike Expectations Gone?\"). However, on Friday, due to the sudden escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, 10-year US Treasury bonds completely gave back all their gains and fell back to around 1.9%, and the VIX index surged 14.4% to 27.4. Crude oil prices surged, breaking through $94 per barrel. After tensions escalated again on Thursday, the VIX index climbed, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell by more than 2%. US Treasury yields has declined again in 10 years; Gold rose 1.6% and briefly broke through $1,900 per ounce.<b>It can be seen that when geopolitical conflicts escalate, it is a general rule that safe-haven assets benefit while risky assets suffer losses.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b379dc765b3014f39e1e9ff0ae457e7c\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But the question is, how big will this impact be and how long will it last? To help investors better understand the extent, breadth, and duration of the impact, we compared the performance of global markets and assets in typical local conflicts since the 1990s, especially those involving major powers such as the United States and Russia, and identified the following patterns, such as the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the subsequent war in Afghanistan. The 2003 Iraq War; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggered by the Crimean crisis in 2014; U.S. military intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2014; US airstrikes on Syria in 2017; The 2017 Korean Peninsula crisis; In January 2020, the United States launched airstrikes against Iran and other</p><p><b>► First, without exception, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict will suppress risk appetite in the short term, causing safe-haven assets to benefit while risky assets to suffer losses.</b>Based on the historical experience we have summarized above, when conflicts occur (usually within a week to a month), global stock markets will be negatively impacted and fall, whether for a long or short period of time. Safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold, and the Japanese yen benefited relatively.</p><p><b>► Secondly, between different markets</b>Apart from the Crimean crisis in 2014, which hit Europe hardest, emerging markets were generally more affected than developed markets, mainly because emerging markets have a higher risk premium than developed markets. However, after the conflict subsided, the rebound and recovery in emerging markets became more significant.</p><p><b>►</b>Third, in terms of the extent of the impact and the duration of its impact, unless it significantly exceeds expectations and there is a risk of it spreading to a wider area,<b>Otherwise, the impact of local conflicts on major assets would not be particularly significant and would be relatively short-lived.</b>Of the cases mentioned above, except for the 9/11 attacks in 2001, which triggered widespread panic because the United States was directly attacked (developed stock markets fell by an average of ~5%, and emerging markets fell by as much as ~10%) and had a longer impact on the market, the other cases all had a weekly impact, with the market typically falling by about 5% during this period.</p><p><b>► Fourth, from the perspective of impact patterns, the impact of local wars is often impulsive and does not completely change the original trend.</b>Therefore, after crises and conflicts, various assets will rebound rapidly to repair lost ground.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/821b7d4903af14b9922978b61900fe5e\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c9ab70f01946d9aad32e0730b00430\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>II. The \"Special Nature\" of the Russia-Ukraine Situation: Disturbing Inflation Levels and Monetary Tightening Expectations Through Energy Prices</b></p><p>Based on the general patterns of geopolitical conflicts mentioned above, if the current tensions between Russia and Ukraine are only localized and short-term, their impact may be more limited to short-term risk appetite. However, due to Russia's interest in major resources (such as energy, natural gas, and some...)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>It plays an important role in global supply (in 2021, Russia contributed 12% and 21% of global oil and gas exports, respectively; Europe is more dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies, with Russia's oil and gas exports to Europe accounting for 29% and 36% of global exports to Europe in 2021, respectively, and Russia's pipeline gas to Europe accounting for about 35% of Europe's total natural gas imports).</p><p>Therefore,<b>If this geopolitical conflict leads to subsequent sanctions, it could trigger \"collateral losses\" in the supply gap of some assets, and the impact of the latter could be far greater than the short-term impact caused solely by risk appetite.</b>The main conduction path is,</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/260135087c025bcc8e10617b6e8e309d\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88c8702e405455c50fd1cfe84edfbf9b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1) The supply premium pushes up crude oil prices, thereby affecting inflation expectations and the tightening path.</b>With relatively low inventories in some areas and the improvement in the pandemic driving border opening and travel demand, the potential \"supply premium\" triggered by the Russia-Ukraine situation has become a key variable influencing oil price trends in the short term. According to IEA statistics, as of the end of 2021, Russia accounted for as much as 11% (10.9 million barrels per day) of the global production of approximately 98 million barrels per day. According to calculations by CICC's commodities group, if geopolitical risks evolve into actual supply shocks and assume that Russian oil supply decreases by more than 2 million barrels per day, the oil market may shift from balance to shortage, potentially causing oil prices to experience a supply premium of $30 per barrel and reach a high of $120 per barrel (oil: \"standing on both sides of the coin\").</p><p><b>Given the current high inflation rate, this will undoubtedly further push up apparent inflation and increase pressure on the central bank to tighten.</b>Historically, oil prices have a high correlation with overall inflation, especially energy prices in the CPI, which are highly synchronized (the correlation coefficient has reached 93% since 1990). Energy prices account for approximately 7.4% of the US CPI.<b>If oil prices rise while other prices remain unchanged, we estimate that the US CPI may increase by an additional 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.</b>This will undoubtedly increase market concerns about Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time,<b>Since oil prices are highly correlated with inflation expectations (breakeven) in bond yields, but there is a long edge of 2.7-2.8%, this may also put upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields at the current level (~2.4%).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54911b036eb8fa985f2d0a9ddf7723b3\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc98cff1cf44db5395ae83b96b38a61\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Nord Stream 2 may further exacerbate the shortage in the European energy market.</b>The Nord Stream gas pipeline is an offshore natural gas pipeline operated by Nord Stream AG. The project includes two parallel pipelines, No. 1 and No. 2. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline was laid in May 2011 and put into use in November of the same year. Nord Stream 2 was completed in September 2021, but has not yet been put into use and is still awaiting approval from relevant authorities in Germany and Europe. In the fourth quarter of 2021, cold weather coupled with geopolitical risks between Russia, Europe, and the United States caused significant disruption to the European natural gas market. Following the suspension of approvals for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, on December 18, 2021, the gas transmission volume of the Yamal-Europe pipeline, one of the three major natural gas transportation pipelines from Russia to Europe, plummeted from 250-300 gigawatt-hours per day to 29 gigawatt-hours per day, and the gas transmission direction was reversed starting from December 21. The supply risk premium caused by unexpected supply events pushed up TTF natural gas prices, which surged 31.5% to a record high of $59.5 per million British thermal until Russia subsequently released signals of stable gas supply before prices fell significantly.</p><p>CICC's commodities team stated that, given that Europe is still in its heating season and natural gas inventories are low,<b>Tight fundamentals could further amplify the supply impact of Russian natural gas; therefore, escalating geopolitical risks could exacerbate the shortage situation in European energy markets.</b>(A brief commentary on the potential impact of the hunger and Ukraine situation on the commodity market).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd994bb9b5e808a8383aeabecb44002\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Risk exposure to financial assets, foreign debt and exchange rates.</b>Potential financial and export sanctions will also affect Russia's fiscal revenues, which in turn will affect its exchange rate and foreign debt repayment capacity. As of the third quarter of 2021, the total foreign currency-denominated liabilities of all sectors in Russia accounted for 25% of GDP (compared to 19% for the non-financial corporate sector). If potential sanctions emerge, they could narrow Russia's current account surplus, thereby affecting exchange rate trends and Russia's external financing capabilities, and even leading to repayment risks. Since the beginning of the year, with the continued escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian ruble has depreciated by 3.4% against the US dollar, and the Russian sovereign debt CDS has also jumped by ~60 basis points to a new high since 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9940cb9607df8ccfb32698fa32d2627c\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, if the situation escalates, how should we respond and mitigate the risks? Traditional safe-haven assets, volatility hedging, oil prices</b></p><p>Although we believe it is still a low-probability event, how should investors respond if the situation escalates or even a larger-scale conflict breaks out?<b>Traditional safe-haven assets, as well as crude oil, which may benefit from the supply premium this time, may have a certain safe-haven effect.</b>However, inflation expectations and rising tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.</p><p>The essence of safe-haven assets is that the correlation between them and risky assets is very low or even negative, which can achieve the effect of limiting the impact or even increasing when risky assets fall. By analyzing the correlation between several major safe-haven asset classes and global stock markets since 2000, we found that...<b>From a purely safe-haven perspective, the VIX index > US Treasury Bond > Japanese Treasury Bond > Japanese Yen > Gold.</b></p><p>Therefore, potential hedging options are:<b>1) Buy traditional safe-haven or defensive assets.</b>Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and US, Japan, and Treasury Bond can serve as good hedges; In addition, defensive sectors in the stock market, such as food and beverage, household goods, utilities, and biopharmaceutical sectors, can also play a certain role in hedging against sharp market fluctuations. However, the rising inflation expectations and monetary tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.<b>2) Hedge by being bullish on volatility VIX.</b>The main logic behind buying bullish volatility products to hedge portfolio risk exposure is that market volatility tends to rise rapidly when risks erupt. However, the disadvantage of this approach is that once the situation calms down, volatility will decline very quickly. At the same time, VIX is the implied volatility of options, so there is a loss of time value. Therefore, it is necessary to close the position in time after making a profit and it is not suitable for long-term holding, otherwise it will drag you down.<b>3) Crude oil, which has benefited from the supply premium, may also have a certain hedging effect if the event escalates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc3bf5433e1fee9a95c4f12e76f7d0b\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c7d92f6c878c759d4bfe1e63519963\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine escalate again; US Treasury yields rises but then falls back; defense sector leads the way.</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Commodities > Bonds > Stocks, stock market generally declined, defensive sectors led the way.</b></p><p>Midweek this week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its January FOMC meeting. The minutes show that they signaled a possible rate hike in March, but did not hint at the possibility of an accelerated rate hike in March, nor did they mention the timing of shrinking balance sheet or other further details. The CME futures market implies that the probability of a 50-basis-point rate hike in March has fallen to around 65%. As the weekend approached, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated again, with Biden again warning that the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was \"very high.\" US stocks suffered setbacks, US Treasury yields retreated from its highs, and gold prices briefly broke through $1,900 per ounce.</p><p>Overall, in the past week, in US dollar terms, commodities > bonds > stocks; Natural gas, the ChiNext board, and the Brazilian real led the gains, while Bitcoin, Russian, and German stock markets led the declines. In terms of sectors, household goods, transportation, and food and tobacco led the gains in the S&P 500, while energy, software and services, and media led the declines. Regarding interest rates, the 10-year US Treasury yields surged before falling to 1.93%, a decrease of about 1 basis point. Among them, the real interest rate rose by about 3 basis points, while inflation expectations fell by about 4 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5b74d77028bc7247084abdaea6db008\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6250ca9d5df71192d9dd1b852a8d1c63\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Sentiment Positioning: VIX climbs near weekend, gold overbought, short-term Treasury Bond shorts surge</b></p><p>Over the past week, the VIX index rose at the beginning of the week before falling back, and rose again near the weekend, with the ratio of bearish/bullish options (10-day average) increasing. Overbought stocks in major markets have all declined; The oversold US Treasury bonds eased, gold rose to overbought levels, and Brent crude fell back to a reasonable range. In terms of positions, speculative net long positions in US stocks and the US dollar increased, net short positions in gold increased, and net short positions in 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds both increased, with the increase in net short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds being more significant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f0c710a24b59bd506be625cde86c63\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/215f0a6df0a49c50c73fc2e89a90872c\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund Flow: Stock Market Inflow Slows, Bond Market Outflow Accelerates</b></p><p>Over the past week, equity fund inflows have slowed, while bond and money market funds have accelerated their outflows. By market, in the stock market, emerging markets continued to flow in, while Europe and the United States turned to outflows, and Japan accelerated its outflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1708347463ce1cae937f8d74567644\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policy: US January PPI and retail sales both exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>In the United States, existing home sales rose more than expected in January, and the January PPI exceeded expectations month-on-month. New home starts in January reached 1.638 million units, lower than the previous figure of 1.708 million units and the expected 1.695 million units. Existing home sales reached 6.5 million units, higher than the previous figure of 6.09 million units and the expected 6.1 million units. The US PPI rose 1% month-on-month in January, higher than the previous value (0.4%) and the expected value (0.5%). Energy and food prices remained the biggest drivers, and the cost of goods grew faster than the service sector. Omicron had a limited impact on demand, and U.S. retail sales rose more than expected month-on-month in January. U.S. retail sales rose 3.8% month-over-month in January, higher than the previous figure of -2.5% and the expected 2%, marking the largest increase since March 2021. While this rebound may have a base effect (down 2.5% month-on-month in December), the month-on-month growth in January brought the absolute scale back to before the Omicron outbreak, indicating that the impact on demand was limited. Structurally, due to the high level of US cases in January, some sectors that were significantly disrupted by the pandemic, such as food and beverage services, recovered relatively slowly (-0.9% month-on-month, -0.6% previous value). In addition, industrial production also clearly turned positive in January.</p><p>In Europe, the UK's CPI hit a new high year-on-year in January. The UK's January CPI reached 5.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous value and the expected 5.4%, marking a new high in nearly 30 years. By category, the largest contributions came from clothing, footwear, furniture, and household appliances. In Japan, the annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate rose significantly in the fourth quarter, but fell short of expectations. Japan's real GDP rose 5.4% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, higher than the previous figure of -2.7%, but lower than the expected 6%. Japan's January CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 0.2% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0.5% and the expected 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d6c430c37725f0c2055dc3487e73fb9\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: slightly below the reasonable level of growth and liquidity models</b></p><p>The current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 21.4 is slightly lower than the reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~21.7 times).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e960eaf15f523909d9b23f9477528b\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: How do geopolitical risks affect asset prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: How do geopolitical risks affect asset prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-20 11:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, geopolitical risks have shown signs of escalating and have become one of the main themes in global asset pricing. We analyze the possible evolution and impact from two perspectives: the general characteristics of previous experiences and the possible differences in this situation.</p><p><b>I. General Patterns of Geopolitical Conflicts: Short-term shock risk appetite, but the impact is limited and mostly transient, and does not change the original trend.</b></p><p><b>1）</b>In the short term, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict will suppress risk appetite, causing safe-haven assets to benefit while risky assets to suffer.<b>2）</b>Among different markets, emerging markets are generally more affected than developed markets, mainly because emerging markets have a higher risk premium than developed markets.<b>3）</b>In terms of the extent and duration of the impact, local conflicts will not have a particularly significant impact on major assets and will last relatively short.<b>4）</b>From the perspective of impact patterns, shocks are often impulsive and do not completely change the original trend. After the conflict, various assets will quickly rebound to repair lost ground.</p><p><b>II. The \"Special Nature\" of the Russia-Ukraine Situation: Disturbing Inflation Levels and Monetary Tightening Expectations Through Energy Prices</b></p><p>Because Russia plays a crucial role in the supply of key resources, if subsequent sanctions are imposed due to this geopolitical conflict...<b>This could trigger \"collateral losses\" in the supply gap of some assets, and the impact of the latter could be far greater than the short-term shock caused solely by risk appetite.</b>The main conduction path is,<b>1）</b>The supply premium pushes up crude oil prices, which in turn affects inflation expectations and the path of tightening. If oil prices rise to $120 while other prices remain unchanged, we estimate that the US CPI may increase by an additional 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.<b>2）</b>Nord Stream 2 may further exacerbate the shortage in Europe's energy market.<b>3）</b>Potential financial and export sanctions will also affect Russia's fiscal revenue, which in turn will affect its exchange rate and foreign debt repayment capacity.</p><p><b>Third, if the situation escalates, how should we respond and mitigate the risks? Traditional safe-haven assets, volatility hedging, oil prices</b></p><p>From a purely risk-averse perspective,<b>VIX > US Treasury Bond > Japanese Treasury Bond > Japanese Yen > Gold</b>。 Potential hedging options are:<b>1) Buy traditional safe-haven or defensive assets</b>。 Such as gold and the US-Japan Treasury Bond, defensive sectors in the stock market. However, the rising inflation expectations and monetary tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.<b>2) Hedging through bullish volatility VIX</b>。 However, the downside is that once the situation calms down, volatility will decline very quickly, and there is a loss of time value. Therefore, it is necessary to close positions in time after making a profit rather than holding them for the long term, otherwise you will be dragged down by it.<b>3）</b>Crude oil, which has benefited from the supply premium this time, may also have a certain hedging effect.</p><p><b>This week's focus: Geopolitical risks persist; how can they affect asset prices and hedge against potential risks?</b></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, global geopolitical risks have shown signs of escalating, and the continued tension in Russia-Ukraine relations has attracted much attention and become one of the main themes in global asset pricing recently. For example, while risk aversion pushed up gold and the US Dollar Index and suppressed US Treasury yields, it also increased selling pressure on some risky assets such as Nasdaq growth stocks. Concerns about the risk of sanctions against Russia pushed crude oil prices higher, which in turn increased market concerns about already high inflationary pressures and the pace of monetary tightening.<b>It is not difficult to see that, given its important role in the pricing of some resources, the evolution of the situation between Russia and Ukraine may have far-reaching consequences.</b>。</p><p>Although we cannot make an accurate judgment on the subsequent evolution of the situation (the recent mix of information has made the situation even more unpredictable), this does not prevent us from combining the general characteristics of asset performance during previous geopolitical risks and local conflicts, as well as the possible differences in this situation, to sort out the possible evolution and impact in different scenarios for investors' reference.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fdf8b4b446120fa8f3c89582607b9c\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>I. General Patterns of Geopolitical Conflicts: Short-term shock risk appetite, but the impact is limited and mostly transient, and does not change the original trend.</b></p><p><b>Geopolitical risks, especially regional conflicts, are often difficult to predict accurately due to their suddenness. However, this is precisely why such events can cause impulsive and instantaneous shocks to global risk assets and markets.</b>。 For example, after the better-than-expected US CPI in January triggered a rise in rate hike expectations last Thursday, 10-year US Treasury bonds once surged to over 2% (\"Where Have rate hike Expectations Gone?\"). However, on Friday, due to the sudden escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, 10-year US Treasury bonds completely gave back all their gains and fell back to around 1.9%, and the VIX index surged 14.4% to 27.4. Crude oil prices surged, breaking through $94 per barrel. After tensions escalated again on Thursday, the VIX index climbed, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell by more than 2%. US Treasury yields has declined again in 10 years; Gold rose 1.6% and briefly broke through $1,900 per ounce.<b>It can be seen that when geopolitical conflicts escalate, it is a general rule that safe-haven assets benefit while risky assets suffer losses.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b379dc765b3014f39e1e9ff0ae457e7c\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But the question is, how big will this impact be and how long will it last? To help investors better understand the extent, breadth, and duration of the impact, we compared the performance of global markets and assets in typical local conflicts since the 1990s, especially those involving major powers such as the United States and Russia, and identified the following patterns, such as the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the subsequent war in Afghanistan. The 2003 Iraq War; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggered by the Crimean crisis in 2014; U.S. military intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2014; US airstrikes on Syria in 2017; The 2017 Korean Peninsula crisis; In January 2020, the United States launched airstrikes against Iran and other</p><p><b>► First, without exception, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict will suppress risk appetite in the short term, causing safe-haven assets to benefit while risky assets to suffer losses.</b>Based on the historical experience we have summarized above, when conflicts occur (usually within a week to a month), global stock markets will be negatively impacted and fall, whether for a long or short period of time. Safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold, and the Japanese yen benefited relatively.</p><p><b>► Secondly, between different markets</b>Apart from the Crimean crisis in 2014, which hit Europe hardest, emerging markets were generally more affected than developed markets, mainly because emerging markets have a higher risk premium than developed markets. However, after the conflict subsided, the rebound and recovery in emerging markets became more significant.</p><p><b>►</b>Third, in terms of the extent of the impact and the duration of its impact, unless it significantly exceeds expectations and there is a risk of it spreading to a wider area,<b>Otherwise, the impact of local conflicts on major assets would not be particularly significant and would be relatively short-lived.</b>Of the cases mentioned above, except for the 9/11 attacks in 2001, which triggered widespread panic because the United States was directly attacked (developed stock markets fell by an average of ~5%, and emerging markets fell by as much as ~10%) and had a longer impact on the market, the other cases all had a weekly impact, with the market typically falling by about 5% during this period.</p><p><b>► Fourth, from the perspective of impact patterns, the impact of local wars is often impulsive and does not completely change the original trend.</b>Therefore, after crises and conflicts, various assets will rebound rapidly to repair lost ground.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/821b7d4903af14b9922978b61900fe5e\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c9ab70f01946d9aad32e0730b00430\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>II. The \"Special Nature\" of the Russia-Ukraine Situation: Disturbing Inflation Levels and Monetary Tightening Expectations Through Energy Prices</b></p><p>Based on the general patterns of geopolitical conflicts mentioned above, if the current tensions between Russia and Ukraine are only localized and short-term, their impact may be more limited to short-term risk appetite. However, due to Russia's interest in major resources (such as energy, natural gas, and some...)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>It plays an important role in global supply (in 2021, Russia contributed 12% and 21% of global oil and gas exports, respectively; Europe is more dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies, with Russia's oil and gas exports to Europe accounting for 29% and 36% of global exports to Europe in 2021, respectively, and Russia's pipeline gas to Europe accounting for about 35% of Europe's total natural gas imports).</p><p>Therefore,<b>If this geopolitical conflict leads to subsequent sanctions, it could trigger \"collateral losses\" in the supply gap of some assets, and the impact of the latter could be far greater than the short-term impact caused solely by risk appetite.</b>The main conduction path is,</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/260135087c025bcc8e10617b6e8e309d\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88c8702e405455c50fd1cfe84edfbf9b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1) The supply premium pushes up crude oil prices, thereby affecting inflation expectations and the tightening path.</b>With relatively low inventories in some areas and the improvement in the pandemic driving border opening and travel demand, the potential \"supply premium\" triggered by the Russia-Ukraine situation has become a key variable influencing oil price trends in the short term. According to IEA statistics, as of the end of 2021, Russia accounted for as much as 11% (10.9 million barrels per day) of the global production of approximately 98 million barrels per day. According to calculations by CICC's commodities group, if geopolitical risks evolve into actual supply shocks and assume that Russian oil supply decreases by more than 2 million barrels per day, the oil market may shift from balance to shortage, potentially causing oil prices to experience a supply premium of $30 per barrel and reach a high of $120 per barrel (oil: \"standing on both sides of the coin\").</p><p><b>Given the current high inflation rate, this will undoubtedly further push up apparent inflation and increase pressure on the central bank to tighten.</b>Historically, oil prices have a high correlation with overall inflation, especially energy prices in the CPI, which are highly synchronized (the correlation coefficient has reached 93% since 1990). Energy prices account for approximately 7.4% of the US CPI.<b>If oil prices rise while other prices remain unchanged, we estimate that the US CPI may increase by an additional 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.</b>This will undoubtedly increase market concerns about Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time,<b>Since oil prices are highly correlated with inflation expectations (breakeven) in bond yields, but there is a long edge of 2.7-2.8%, this may also put upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields at the current level (~2.4%).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54911b036eb8fa985f2d0a9ddf7723b3\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc98cff1cf44db5395ae83b96b38a61\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Nord Stream 2 may further exacerbate the shortage in the European energy market.</b>The Nord Stream gas pipeline is an offshore natural gas pipeline operated by Nord Stream AG. The project includes two parallel pipelines, No. 1 and No. 2. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline was laid in May 2011 and put into use in November of the same year. Nord Stream 2 was completed in September 2021, but has not yet been put into use and is still awaiting approval from relevant authorities in Germany and Europe. In the fourth quarter of 2021, cold weather coupled with geopolitical risks between Russia, Europe, and the United States caused significant disruption to the European natural gas market. Following the suspension of approvals for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, on December 18, 2021, the gas transmission volume of the Yamal-Europe pipeline, one of the three major natural gas transportation pipelines from Russia to Europe, plummeted from 250-300 gigawatt-hours per day to 29 gigawatt-hours per day, and the gas transmission direction was reversed starting from December 21. The supply risk premium caused by unexpected supply events pushed up TTF natural gas prices, which surged 31.5% to a record high of $59.5 per million British thermal until Russia subsequently released signals of stable gas supply before prices fell significantly.</p><p>CICC's commodities team stated that, given that Europe is still in its heating season and natural gas inventories are low,<b>Tight fundamentals could further amplify the supply impact of Russian natural gas; therefore, escalating geopolitical risks could exacerbate the shortage situation in European energy markets.</b>(A brief commentary on the potential impact of the hunger and Ukraine situation on the commodity market).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd994bb9b5e808a8383aeabecb44002\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Risk exposure to financial assets, foreign debt and exchange rates.</b>Potential financial and export sanctions will also affect Russia's fiscal revenues, which in turn will affect its exchange rate and foreign debt repayment capacity. As of the third quarter of 2021, the total foreign currency-denominated liabilities of all sectors in Russia accounted for 25% of GDP (compared to 19% for the non-financial corporate sector). If potential sanctions emerge, they could narrow Russia's current account surplus, thereby affecting exchange rate trends and Russia's external financing capabilities, and even leading to repayment risks. Since the beginning of the year, with the continued escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian ruble has depreciated by 3.4% against the US dollar, and the Russian sovereign debt CDS has also jumped by ~60 basis points to a new high since 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9940cb9607df8ccfb32698fa32d2627c\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, if the situation escalates, how should we respond and mitigate the risks? Traditional safe-haven assets, volatility hedging, oil prices</b></p><p>Although we believe it is still a low-probability event, how should investors respond if the situation escalates or even a larger-scale conflict breaks out?<b>Traditional safe-haven assets, as well as crude oil, which may benefit from the supply premium this time, may have a certain safe-haven effect.</b>However, inflation expectations and rising tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.</p><p>The essence of safe-haven assets is that the correlation between them and risky assets is very low or even negative, which can achieve the effect of limiting the impact or even increasing when risky assets fall. By analyzing the correlation between several major safe-haven asset classes and global stock markets since 2000, we found that...<b>From a purely safe-haven perspective, the VIX index > US Treasury Bond > Japanese Treasury Bond > Japanese Yen > Gold.</b></p><p>Therefore, potential hedging options are:<b>1) Buy traditional safe-haven or defensive assets.</b>Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and US, Japan, and Treasury Bond can serve as good hedges; In addition, defensive sectors in the stock market, such as food and beverage, household goods, utilities, and biopharmaceutical sectors, can also play a certain role in hedging against sharp market fluctuations. However, the rising inflation expectations and monetary tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.<b>2) Hedge by being bullish on volatility VIX.</b>The main logic behind buying bullish volatility products to hedge portfolio risk exposure is that market volatility tends to rise rapidly when risks erupt. However, the disadvantage of this approach is that once the situation calms down, volatility will decline very quickly. At the same time, VIX is the implied volatility of options, so there is a loss of time value. Therefore, it is necessary to close the position in time after making a profit and it is not suitable for long-term holding, otherwise it will drag you down.<b>3) Crude oil, which has benefited from the supply premium, may also have a certain hedging effect if the event escalates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc3bf5433e1fee9a95c4f12e76f7d0b\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c7d92f6c878c759d4bfe1e63519963\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine escalate again; US Treasury yields rises but then falls back; defense sector leads the way.</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Commodities > Bonds > Stocks, stock market generally declined, defensive sectors led the way.</b></p><p>Midweek this week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its January FOMC meeting. The minutes show that they signaled a possible rate hike in March, but did not hint at the possibility of an accelerated rate hike in March, nor did they mention the timing of shrinking balance sheet or other further details. The CME futures market implies that the probability of a 50-basis-point rate hike in March has fallen to around 65%. As the weekend approached, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated again, with Biden again warning that the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was \"very high.\" US stocks suffered setbacks, US Treasury yields retreated from its highs, and gold prices briefly broke through $1,900 per ounce.</p><p>Overall, in the past week, in US dollar terms, commodities > bonds > stocks; Natural gas, the ChiNext board, and the Brazilian real led the gains, while Bitcoin, Russian, and German stock markets led the declines. In terms of sectors, household goods, transportation, and food and tobacco led the gains in the S&P 500, while energy, software and services, and media led the declines. Regarding interest rates, the 10-year US Treasury yields surged before falling to 1.93%, a decrease of about 1 basis point. Among them, the real interest rate rose by about 3 basis points, while inflation expectations fell by about 4 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5b74d77028bc7247084abdaea6db008\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6250ca9d5df71192d9dd1b852a8d1c63\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Sentiment Positioning: VIX climbs near weekend, gold overbought, short-term Treasury Bond shorts surge</b></p><p>Over the past week, the VIX index rose at the beginning of the week before falling back, and rose again near the weekend, with the ratio of bearish/bullish options (10-day average) increasing. Overbought stocks in major markets have all declined; The oversold US Treasury bonds eased, gold rose to overbought levels, and Brent crude fell back to a reasonable range. In terms of positions, speculative net long positions in US stocks and the US dollar increased, net short positions in gold increased, and net short positions in 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds both increased, with the increase in net short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds being more significant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f0c710a24b59bd506be625cde86c63\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/215f0a6df0a49c50c73fc2e89a90872c\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund Flow: Stock Market Inflow Slows, Bond Market Outflow Accelerates</b></p><p>Over the past week, equity fund inflows have slowed, while bond and money market funds have accelerated their outflows. By market, in the stock market, emerging markets continued to flow in, while Europe and the United States turned to outflows, and Japan accelerated its outflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1708347463ce1cae937f8d74567644\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policy: US January PPI and retail sales both exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>In the United States, existing home sales rose more than expected in January, and the January PPI exceeded expectations month-on-month. New home starts in January reached 1.638 million units, lower than the previous figure of 1.708 million units and the expected 1.695 million units. Existing home sales reached 6.5 million units, higher than the previous figure of 6.09 million units and the expected 6.1 million units. The US PPI rose 1% month-on-month in January, higher than the previous value (0.4%) and the expected value (0.5%). Energy and food prices remained the biggest drivers, and the cost of goods grew faster than the service sector. Omicron had a limited impact on demand, and U.S. retail sales rose more than expected month-on-month in January. U.S. retail sales rose 3.8% month-over-month in January, higher than the previous figure of -2.5% and the expected 2%, marking the largest increase since March 2021. While this rebound may have a base effect (down 2.5% month-on-month in December), the month-on-month growth in January brought the absolute scale back to before the Omicron outbreak, indicating that the impact on demand was limited. Structurally, due to the high level of US cases in January, some sectors that were significantly disrupted by the pandemic, such as food and beverage services, recovered relatively slowly (-0.9% month-on-month, -0.6% previous value). In addition, industrial production also clearly turned positive in January.</p><p>In Europe, the UK's CPI hit a new high year-on-year in January. The UK's January CPI reached 5.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous value and the expected 5.4%, marking a new high in nearly 30 years. By category, the largest contributions came from clothing, footwear, furniture, and household appliances. In Japan, the annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate rose significantly in the fourth quarter, but fell short of expectations. Japan's real GDP rose 5.4% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, higher than the previous figure of -2.7%, but lower than the expected 6%. Japan's January CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 0.2% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0.5% and the expected 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d6c430c37725f0c2055dc3487e73fb9\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: slightly below the reasonable level of growth and liquidity models</b></p><p>The current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 21.4 is slightly lower than the reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~21.7 times).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e960eaf15f523909d9b23f9477528b\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f26a21557b2b9fbf841d276ecb7796","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142549921","content_text":"摘要年初以来，地缘风险有升温迹象，成为全球资产定价主线之一。我们结合历次经验的一般性特征，以及此次局势的可能不同点两个角度出发，梳理可能演变与影响。一、地缘冲突的一般性规律：短期冲击风险偏好，但影响有限且多为瞬时性冲击，不改变原有趋势1）地缘冲突爆发在短期都将打压风险偏好，导致避险资产受益而风险资产受损。2）不同市场间，整体来看新兴市场受到的影响均要大于发达市场，主要由于新兴市场相比发达市场而言具有更高的风险溢价。3）从影响程度和波及时长来看，局部冲突对主要资产的影响不会特别显著且持续时间也相对比较短暂。4）从影响模式看，冲击往往是脉冲式的，并不会完全改变原有趋势，冲突过后，各类资产也会迅速反弹修复失地。二、此次俄乌局势的“特殊性”：通过能源价格扰动通胀水平和货币紧缩预期由于俄罗斯在主要资源品供应中扮演重要角色，因此如果因为此次地缘冲突导致后续制裁的话，可能由此引发部分资产品供给缺口的“连带损失”，而后者的影响可能远大于短期单纯因为风险偏好造成的冲击，主要传导路径为，1）供给溢价推升原油价格，进而影响通胀预期和紧缩路径。若油价上冲到120美元而其他价格保持不变，我们测算或额外抬升美国CPI每月环比0.1个百分点。2）北溪2号或进一步加重欧洲能源市场短缺。3）潜在的金融和出口制裁也会影响俄罗斯财政收入，进而影响其汇率和外债偿付能力。三、如果事态升级，应该如何应对和避险？传统避险资产、波动率对冲、油价单纯从避险效果看，VIX指数>美国国债>日本国债>日元>黄金。潜在的避险方式为：1）买入传统意义上的避险或防御性资产。如黄金和美日国债，股票市场中的防御性板块。不过，此次通胀预期和货币紧缩升温可能导致国债的避险效果打一定折扣。2）通过看多波动率VIX对冲。但缺点在于一旦事态平息，波动率回落也会非常迅速，同时有时间价值耗损，因此获利后需要及时关闭头寸而不适合长期持有，否则反而会受其拖累。3）此次受益于供应溢价的原油也可能起到一定对冲效果。本周焦点：地缘风险挥之不去，如何影响资产价格、如何对冲潜在风险？年初以来，全球地缘风险有不断升温迹象，俄乌关系持续紧张引发诸多关注并成为近期全球资产定价的主线之一。例如，避险情绪在推升黄金和美元指数、并压低美债利率的同时，也加大了一部分风险资产如纳斯达克成长股的抛售压力；而对于俄罗斯遭受制裁风险的担心推升原油价格持续走高，进而又加大了市场对已经居高不下的通胀压力和货币紧缩节奏的担忧。不难看出，由于其在一些资源品定价中扮演的重要角色，俄乌局势演变可能带来牵一发动全身的效果。虽然我们无法对后续局势演变做出准确判断（近期各种信息交杂更使局势显得扑朔迷离），但这不妨碍我们结合历次地缘风险和局部冲突时资产表现的一般性特征，以及此次局势的可能不同点这两个角度分别出发，梳理未来在不同情景下的可能演变与影响，以供投资者参考。一、地缘冲突的一般性规律：短期冲击风险偏好，但影响有限且多为瞬时性冲击，不改变原有趋势地缘风险特别是区域性的冲突，因其突发性，通常很难准确预判，但也正因如此，此类事件都会对全球风险资产和市场造成脉冲式瞬时冲击。例如，上周四1月美国CPI超预期引发加息预期升温后10年美债一度上冲至2%以上（《加息预期走到哪了？》），但周五由于俄乌局势陡然紧张，10年美债完全回吐所有涨幅跌回1.9%附近，VIX指数骤升14.4%至27.4；原油价格大涨突破94美元/桶。本周四局势再度紧张后，VIX指数随之攀升，标普和纳斯达克跌幅都在2%以上；10年美债利率再度回落；黄金涨1.6%并一度突破1900美元/盎司。可以看出，地缘冲突升温时，避险资产受益而风险资产受损是一般性规律。但问题是，这一影响有多大、会持续多久？为了让投资者对影响程度、广度和波及时长有更好的理解，我们对上世纪90年代以来较为典型的局部冲突、特别是涉及到主要大国如美国和俄罗斯时的全球市场和资产表现进行了对比并梳理出以下一些规律，例如2001年911事件和随后的阿富汗战争；2003年伊拉克战争；2014年由克里米亚危机引发的俄罗斯与乌克兰间的冲突；2014美国军事介入叙利亚内战；2017年美国空袭叙利亚；2017年朝鲜半岛危机；2020年1月美国空袭伊朗等。►首先，无一例外的是，地缘冲突爆发在短期都将打压风险偏好，导致避险资产受益而风险资产受损。从上述我们总结的历史经验来看，冲突发生时（一般是一周到一个月之内），全球股市或长或短都会受到一些负面冲击而下跌；避险资产如债券、黄金和日元则相对受益。►其次，不同市场之间，除了2014年的克里米亚危机使得欧洲首当其冲，整体来看新兴市场受到的影响均要大于发达市场，主要由于新兴市场相比发达市场而言具有更高的风险溢价。不过，当冲突过后，新兴市场的反弹修复力度也更为显著。►第三，从影响程度和波及时长来看，除非大幅超出预期且有蔓延到更大范围的风险，否则局部冲突对主要资产的影响不会特别显著且持续时间也相对比较短暂。上面提到的几个案例中，除了2001年911事件是因为美国直接受到袭击所以引发了更大范围内的恐慌（发达股市平均下跌~5%、新兴市场跌幅高达~10%）且对市场的影响时间也更长外，其他几次的影响时间都是以周度计，市场在此期间的跌幅通常在5%左右。►第四，从影响模式看，局部战争的冲击往往是脉冲式的，并不会完全改变原有趋势，因此危机和冲突过后，各类资产也会迅速反弹而修复失地。二、此次俄乌局势的“特殊性”：通过能源价格扰动通胀水平和货币紧缩预期从上文针对地缘冲突的一般性规律来看，如果此次俄乌局势紧张也只是局限在局部和短期的话，其影响可能也只是更多局限在短期的风险偏好上。但是，由于俄罗斯在主要资源品（如能源、天然气和部分农产品）的全球供应中扮演的重要角色（2021年，俄罗斯贡献了全球油、气出口总量的12%和21%；欧洲对俄罗斯的油气供给依赖度更高，2021年俄罗斯出口欧洲油气贸易量占全球出口至欧洲贸易量的29%和36%，俄罗斯向欧洲输送的管道气约占欧洲天然气总进口量的35%）。因此，如果因为此次地缘冲突导致后续制裁的话，可能由此引发部分资产品供给缺口的“连带损失”，而后者的影响可能远大于短期单纯因为风险偏好造成的冲击，主要传导路径为，1）供给溢价推升原油价格，进而影响通胀预期和紧缩路径。在局部库存相对较低、且疫情改善推动边境开放和出行需求的背景下，俄乌局势可能引发的“供应溢价”成为短期左右油价走势的关键变量。根据IEA统计，截止2021年末，全球每天约9800万桶的产量中，俄罗斯占比高达11%（1090万桶/天）。根据中金大宗商品组的测算，如果地缘风险演变为实际的供应冲击并假设俄罗斯石油供给减少200万桶/天以上，可能会使得石油市场从平衡转向短缺，油价可能因此出现30美元/桶的供应溢价，摸高120美元/桶（石油：“站在硬币”的两面）。在当前通胀偏高的背景下，这无疑会进一步推升表观通胀，并加大央行紧缩压力。从历史关系来看，油价与整体通胀有较高相关性，尤其是CPI中的能源价格更是高度同步（1990年以来相关性系数达93%）。能源价格在美国CPI中权重约为7.4%，若油价上冲而其他价格保持不变，我们测算或额外抬升美国CPI月环比0.1个百分点，这无疑会加大市场对于美联储紧缩的担忧。与此同时，由于油价与债券利率中的通胀预期（breakeven）也高度相关但存在2.7~2.8%的长沿，因此在当前水平（~2.4%）也可能由此带来长端美债利率的上行压力。2）北溪2号或进一步加重欧洲能源市场短缺。北溪天然气管道是一个离岸天然气管道，由Nord Stream AG负责营运，该项目包含1号、2号两条平行管道。北溪1号管道2011年5月铺设，并于同年11月投入使用，北溪2号已于2021年9月建设完毕，但尚未投入使用，目前仍在等待德国和欧洲相关部门审批。2021年四季度，寒冷天气叠加俄罗斯、欧洲和美国之间的地缘风险等因素对欧洲天然气市场造成了很大扰动。北溪2号管道审批暂停后，2021年12月18日，俄罗斯至欧洲三大天然气运输管道之一的亚马尔-欧洲管道输气量从250-300吉瓦时/日骤降至29吉瓦时/日，并于21日起调转输气方向。供给突发事件导致的供应风险溢价推升TTF天然气价格飙升31.5%至59.5美元/百万英热的历史高位，直到随后俄罗斯释放稳定供气信号后，价格才明显回落。中金大宗商品组表示，考虑到当前欧洲仍处取暖季且天然气库存也位于低位，偏紧的基本面或进一步放大俄罗斯天然气的供给冲击，因此地缘风险如果升温也会加剧欧洲能源市场短缺格局（简评饿、乌局势对大宗商品市场的潜在影响）。3）金融资产、外债和汇率的风险敞口。潜在的金融和出口制裁也会影响俄罗斯的财政收入，进而影响其汇率和外债偿付能力。截止2021年三季度，俄罗斯各部门整体外币计价负债占GDP比例为25%（非金融企业部门占比19%）。如若潜在的制裁出现，可能会导致俄罗斯经常账户顺差收窄，进而影响汇率走势和俄罗斯对外融资能力、甚至导致偿付风险。年初以来，伴随俄乌局势的持续升级，俄罗斯卢比兑美元贬值3.4%，俄罗斯主权债务CDS也跳升~60bp至2014年以来新高。三、如果事态升级，应该如何应对和避险？传统避险资产、波动率对冲、油价虽然我们认为依然可能是小概率事件，但如果事态升级甚至爆发更大规模冲突，投资者应该如何应对？传统避险资产以及此次可能受益于供给溢价的原油或能起到一定避险效果。不过，通胀预期和紧缩升温可能会使得国债的避险效果打一定折扣。避险资产的本质是与风险资产间的相关性很低甚至为负，这样可以达到当风险资产下跌时影响有限甚至上涨的效果。通过分析几类主要的避险资产与全球股市自2000年以来的相关性，我们发现，单纯从避险效果看，VIX指数>美国国债>日本国债>日元>黄金。因此，潜在的避险方式为：1）买入传统意义上的避险或防御性资产。传统避险资产如黄金和美日国债都可以作为一个较好对冲；此外，股票市场中的防御性板块，如食品饮料、家庭用品、公用事业及生物制药板块也可以在市场出现剧烈波动时起到一定的避险效果。不过，此次通胀预期和货币紧缩升温可能导致国债的避险效果打一定折扣。2）通过看多波动率VIX对冲。买入看多波动率产品来对冲组合风险敞口的主要逻辑是在风险爆发时，市场波动率往往会快速攀升。但这种方式的缺点在于一旦事态平息，波动率回落也会非常迅速；同时VIX是期权隐含波动率，故有时间价值耗损，因此获利后需要及时关闭头寸而不适合长期持有，否则反而会受其拖累。3）此次受益于供应溢价的原油也可能在事件升级时起到一定对冲效果。市场动态：俄乌地缘政治风险再度升温，美债利率冲高回落，防御板块领先►资产表现：大宗>债>股，股市普跌，防御板块领先本周周中，美联储公布了1月FOMC会议纪要。纪要显示，纪要释放了可能3月加息的信号，但并没有暗示是否可能3月加速加息，也未提及缩表的时点等更多细节，CME期货市场隐含3月加息50bp概率回落至65%左右。临近周末，俄乌地缘政治局势再度升温，拜登再次警告俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的可能性“非常高”，美股受挫、美债利率高位回落、黄金价格一度突破1900美元/盎司。整体看，过去一周，美元计价下，大宗>债>股；天然气、创业板、巴西里尔领涨，比特币、俄罗斯及德国股市领跌。板块方面，标普500指数中家庭用品、运输、食品烟草领涨，能源、软件与服务、媒体领跌。利率方面，10年美债利率冲高后回落至1.93%，下降约1个基点，其中实际利率抬升约3bp，通胀预期回落约4bp。►情绪仓位：VIX临近周末攀升，黄金超买，短端国债空头激增过去一周，VIX指数周初抬升后回落，临近周末再度抬升，看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）有所抬升。主要市场股市超买程度均回落；美债超卖缓解，黄金抬升至超买，布油回落至合理区间。仓位方面，美股及美元投机性净多头仓位增加，黄金净空头仓位增加，10年和2年美债净空头仓位均增加，2年美债净空头仓位增加幅度更为明显。►资金流向：股市流入放缓，债市加速流出过去一周，股票型基金流入放缓，债券型和货币市场基金加速流出。分市场看，股市方面，新兴市场继续流入，欧洲、美国转为流出，日本加速流出。►基本面与政策：美国1月PPI及零售均超预期美国方面，1月成屋销售超预期抬升，1月PPI环比超预期。1月新屋开工163.8万套，低于前值的170.8万套和预期的169.5万套。成屋销售650万套，高于前值的609万套和预期的610万套。1月美国PPI环比1%，高于前值（0.4%）和预期（0.5%），能源和食品价格仍是最大驱动因素，商品成本增速快于服务业。Omicron对需求冲击有限，1月美国零售环比超预期抬升。1月美国零售销售环比3.8%，高于前值的-2.5%和预期的2%，为2021年3月以来最大增幅。虽然这一回升不排除又有基数效应（12月环比下降2.5%），但1月环比增长使得绝对规模回到Omicron爆发前，表明对需求冲击有限。结构性上由于1月美国病例仍处于高位，部分受到疫情扰动较大的板块如食品饮料服务修复相对较慢（环比-0.9%，前值-0.6%）。此外，1月工业生产也明显转正。欧洲方面，英国1月CPI同比再创新高。英国1月CPI同比达5.5%，高于前值和预期的5.4%，创近30年以来新高。分项来看，最大贡献来自服装鞋类、家具和家用设备等。日本方面，四季度GDP年化环比增速大幅抬升但不及预期。日本四季度实际GDP年化季环比为5.4%，高于前值的-2.7%，但低于预期的6%。日本1月CPI（除生鲜食品）同比0.2%，低于前值的0.5%和预期（0.3%）。►市场估值：略低于增长和流动性模型合理水平当前标普500的21.4倍静态P/E略低于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~21.7倍）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090972835,"gmtCreate":1643072950047,"gmtModify":1676533771391,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090972835","repostId":"1130960069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130960069","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643068822,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130960069?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-25 08:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: US stocks experienced a \"terrifying night\"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130960069","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美股三大股指盘中暴跌后尾盘强势转涨，纳指涨0.63%；美油跌2.15%；②俄乌剑拔弩张，卢布一度跌超2%，欧股全线下挫；③俄罗斯货币卢布汇率波动指标升至2020年11月以来的最高水平，俄股市一","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① After a sharp intraday drop, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded strongly in late trading, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.63%; US crude oil fell 2.15%; ② Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, with the ruble falling by more than 2% at one point and European stocks declining across the board; ③ The Russian ruble exchange rate volatility indicator rose to its highest level since November 2020, and the Russian stock market once plummeted by more than 10%. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks experienced a \"terrifying night\"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.</p><p>On Monday, January 24, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down nearly 400 points, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline, the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline, and the Nasdaq Composite fell another 2%. The index's decline widened rapidly, with the S&P 500 falling 10% from its intraday high three weeks ago, entering a technical correction zone.</p><p>Less than two and a half hours after the market opened, panic selling intensified, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, which are dominated by technology stocks, both falling by more than 4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline widening to 950 points, the S&P 500 down 3.4%, and WTI crude oil down more than 3%.</p><p>Nearly three hours after the market opened, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index fell by as much as 20% from its historical close in November last year, entering a technical bear market. The VIX, the \"fear index,\" reached a high of nearly 39, the highest level in more than a year since November 2020. The 35% increase was the largest increase since the Omeprone news broke out in November last year.</p><p>Two hours before the close, U.S. stocks had narrowed their losses to half that of midday, with the S&P 500 down 1.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 430 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.35%. In the first half hour of trading, the declines of the three major stock indices narrowed to less than 1%, with small-cap stocks taking the lead in turning positive. In the first 25 minutes of trading, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turned positive, with the Russell 2000 leading the gains, rising more than 1.5%.</p><p>At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29%, the S&P 500 rose 0.28%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.63%, marking the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that the Nasdaq had fallen more than 4% intraday before closing higher.</p><p>Major tech stocks showed mixed performance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 0.49%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 0.11%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>It rose 0.22%, Yama rose 1.33%, and Meta rose 1.83%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It fell 2.6%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles fell by more than 9%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday, with new energy vehicle stocks plummeting and Nio Motor Company falling more than 9%.</p><p>Alibaba closed down more than 2%, Baidu down nearly 5%, Tencent ADR down 0.8%, Pinduoduo down more than 3%, Bilibili down 2.5%, and iQiyi down 0.5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Autohome</a>It fell more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Qutoutiao</a>It fell nearly 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The stock price fell by more than 2%, while Wuxin Technology fell by nearly 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>It fell by more than 1%.</p><p>Among new energy vehicle stocks, Nio Motor Company fell by more than 9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p>3. European stocks plunged across the board on Monday, marking their biggest single-day drop in 19 months.</p><p>European stocks plunged on Monday, hitting their worst single-day trading record in three months. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell to 45,640 points, a drop of 3.8%. This is the worst single-day drop since June 11, 2020.</p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 3.80%, France's CAC 40 index fell 3.97%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 2.63%.</p><p>A senior economist at Exante stated, \"Before this week's poor start, risk assets had just experienced a rather bearish week. Investors...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The fourth-quarter earnings results were unsatisfactory, and on a broader level, concerns about the Federal Reserve's tightening policies and high global inflation also severely dampened risk appetite.</p><p>4. International crude oil prices closed lower on Monday, with WTI crude futures down 2.15%.</p><p>International crude oil prices closed lower on Monday, with WTI March crude futures falling $1.83, or 2.15%, to $83.31 a barrel.</p><p>Brent crude oil futures for March delivery closed down $1.62, or 1.84%, at $86.27 a barrel.</p><p>The sell-off was driven by broader volatility in financial markets, with the strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies also impacting oil prices, as higher oil prices make them less attractive to overseas buyers.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed 0.54% higher on Monday, with a sharp drop in US stocks providing support for gold prices.</p><p>Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, said: \"Gold is clearly favored as a portfolio insurance. Rising interest rates usually have a negative impact on gold, but since it is politically impossible to bail out stock investors with cheap money, the risk of the Fed rate hike too late has now become even worse.\"</p><p>February gold futures, the most actively traded contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose $9.90 from the previous trading day on the 24th to settle at $1,841.70 an ounce, a gain of 0.54%.</p><p>6. Bitcoin stopped falling and rebounded, with risk assets rebounding to help it reverse its five-day losing streak.</p><p>The late-day rebound in cryptocurrencies mirrored the rise in the US stock market. The 40-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has reached nearly 0.66, the highest level since data compilation began in 2010. A similar correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is also at a record level.</p><p>Cryptocurrencies have faced widespread selling pressure in recent weeks, with traders pointing to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a decline in tech stocks prompting investors to flee risky assets. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $69,000 last November.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Business activity in the United States has almost come to a standstill due to the impact of the Omicron outbreak.</p><p>IHS<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Data released on Monday showed that the preliminary reading of the composite purchasing managers' index for December fell 6.2 points to an 18-month low of 50.8. Data above 50 suggest expansion.</p><p>Service sector indicators also fell to their lowest level since July 2020, with labor shortages and employee absenteeism putting pressure on service sector activity.</p><p>The decline in the manufacturing index was relatively moderate, but it remained at a new low since October 2020, with supply chains still disrupted and output constrained.</p><p>“Output has been affected by Omicron far more than demand, and the strong growth in new business inflows suggests that growth will resume once restrictions are eased,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.</p><p>2. US food prices surge repeatedly, prompting major corporations to clash with the Biden administration.</p><p>Food companies stated that the price increase was in line with market principles, and that extreme weather and the disruption of the supply chain caused by the pandemic increased production costs and reduced food supply. At the same time, demand is increasing both within and outside the United States. However, the Biden administration and some senators believe that industry monopolies are the main source of price increases, and that a few giant companies have the ability to raise prices and profit from inflation.</p><p>3. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are high, and the financial markets are on edge! The ruble once fell by more than 2%, and European stocks declined across the board.</p><p>Government bonds, currencies, and stock markets in Russia and Ukraine have already been hit, and an escalation of the situation could trigger a hasty evacuation of investors.</p><p>Although the United States and Europe have not yet discussed sanctions on Russian commodities, the conflict could destabilize natural gas and wheat futures prices and even threaten the short-term performance of European stocks.</p><p>Recently, as some investors turn to seeking the safest assets, their interest in investing in US Treasury bonds has surged.</p><p>EU foreign ministers will discuss Ukraine with US Secretary of State Blinken on Monday, and some analysts believe that volatility in financial markets may increase during this period.</p><p>4. WHO: The worst phase of the epidemic is expected to end this year</p><p>WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that humans will coexist with the novel coronavirus for the foreseeable future, and more variant strains are likely to emerge under the current circumstances. If countries can fully utilize all strategies and tools, the worst phase of the pandemic can end this year, and the COVID-19 pandemic will no longer be a global public health emergency.</p><p>5. Germany's electrical industry sales are expected to exceed 200 billion euros for the first time in 2021.</p><p>Between January and November 2021, Germany's electronics and electrical industry saw production grow by nearly 9%, while sales increased by nearly 10% year-on-year. The association predicts that the industry's overall sales will exceed 200 billion euros for the first time in 2021.</p><p>The association's president, Gunther Kegel, said that almost all electrical sub-sectors have achieved \"positive development\" thanks to increased exports to other countries. Among them, the battery industry grew by nearly 40%.</p><p>6. German Chancellor: Will promote a new round of COVID-19 vaccination campaign</p><p>At a press conference after the meeting, German Chancellor Scholz said that Germany needs to adhere to its current epidemic prevention measures while vigorously promoting a new round of vaccination campaigns.</p><p>Scholz stated that although Germany has made some progress in vaccination, it is far from enough.</p><p>7. Traders predict that the decline in US stocks will not cause the Federal Reserve to pause tightening; March rate hike is imminent.</p><p>Historically, sharp declines in the U.S. stock market and other risky assets have temporarily halted policymakers, but this time, even with technology stocks leading the stock market crash, bets on rate hike this year remain unwavering.</p><p>The swap market shows that the Federal Reserve expects rate hike of 25 basis points in March, and the market expects rate hike to be close to a full percentage point for the whole of 2022.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206888889\" target=\"_blank\">Meta launches next-generation artificial intelligence supercomputer to support infrastructure development in metaverse.</a></p><p>Formerly known as Facebook<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>Inc. launched its \"AI Research SuperCluster\" (hereinafter referred to as \"RSC\") on its official website.</p><p>Meta believes that the RSC is currently one of the fastest artificial intelligence (AI) supercomputers in the world, and \"once fully completed by mid-2022, it will officially become the world's fastest AI supercomputer.\"</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206002788\" target=\"_blank\">Three U.S. states and Washington, D.C. are suing Google for improperly obtaining user location data.</a></p><p>Washington State Attorney General Karl Racine said in a statement, \"Google misled consumers into believing that changing their account and device settings would protect their privacy and limit (Google's) access to their personal data.\" The attorneys general of Texas, Washington, and Indiana will also reportedly file lawsuits in their respective states.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206002095\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon will open its first physical fashion store, with intelligent algorithms and a magic wardrobe as highlights.</a></p><p>E-commerce giant Amazon is once again extending its reach into the physical industry. On January 20, it announced that it would open its first fashion store and incorporate technological elements into the store, including algorithmic recommendations and a \"magic wardrobe,\" but has not yet announced the specific opening date.</p><p>The new store, reportedly named \"Amazon Style,\" will open in The Americana at Brand mall in The Greater Los Angeles area, alongside Nordstrom department store,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">Urban Outfitters</a>, J. Stores such as Crew and H&M are located nearby. According to Simoina Vasen, general manager of Amazon Wind, Amazon \"has no need to be involved in brick-and-mortar retail\" without significantly improving the customer shopping experience.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2205004571\" target=\"_blank\">Has Merck lost another game? It is rumored that the EMA will give priority to approving Pfizer's oral COVID-19 drug.</a></p><p>Last December, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) provided guidance to member states on how to use these two drugs as emergency treatments, while conducting a rolling review, allowing member states to use them before official EU approval. A few EU countries, such as Italy, Germany and Belgium, purchased Paxlovid and Molnupiravir.</p><p>Sources say that although Merck submitted its application earlier than Pfizer, they submitted their final efficacy data later, so European regulators took more time to review the final data.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2205009377\" target=\"_blank\">Nio establishes nearly $8 million insurance brokerage firm, continuing Friday's pre-market decline.</a></p><p>NIO is not the first company to establish an insurance brokerage firm; as early as August 2020...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) established a company of the same nature, which is wholly owned by Tesla Motors Hong Kong Limited.</p><p>In addition, on December 27, 2021, the Shanghai Insurance Exchange launched a new energy vehicle insurance trading platform (hereinafter referred to as the trading platform) and listed the first batch of new energy vehicle-specific insurance products from 12 property insurance companies, including PICC Property & Casualty Insurance, Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance, and CPIC Property & Casualty Insurance, to provide support for the implementation of new energy vehicle-specific insurance products.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206788598\" target=\"_blank\">IBM's fourth-quarter revenue saw its biggest increase in a decade, surging as much as 7% in after-hours trading.</a></p><p>After the US stock market closed Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company released its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2021. Financial reports showed that the company's high revenue and earnings per share both exceeded analysts' expectations, and IBM's US stock price rose from 2.95% to 6.99% in after-hours trading. Since the beginning of the year, IBM's stock price has fallen by 5.31%, outperforming the 8.71% decline in the S&P Global 100 Index during the same period.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: US stocks experienced a \"terrifying night\"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: US stocks experienced a \"terrifying night\"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-25 08:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① After a sharp intraday drop, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded strongly in late trading, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.63%; US crude oil fell 2.15%; ② Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, with the ruble falling by more than 2% at one point and European stocks declining across the board; ③ The Russian ruble exchange rate volatility indicator rose to its highest level since November 2020, and the Russian stock market once plummeted by more than 10%. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks experienced a \"terrifying night\"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.</p><p>On Monday, January 24, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down nearly 400 points, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline, the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline, and the Nasdaq Composite fell another 2%. The index's decline widened rapidly, with the S&P 500 falling 10% from its intraday high three weeks ago, entering a technical correction zone.</p><p>Less than two and a half hours after the market opened, panic selling intensified, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, which are dominated by technology stocks, both falling by more than 4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline widening to 950 points, the S&P 500 down 3.4%, and WTI crude oil down more than 3%.</p><p>Nearly three hours after the market opened, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index fell by as much as 20% from its historical close in November last year, entering a technical bear market. The VIX, the \"fear index,\" reached a high of nearly 39, the highest level in more than a year since November 2020. The 35% increase was the largest increase since the Omeprone news broke out in November last year.</p><p>Two hours before the close, U.S. stocks had narrowed their losses to half that of midday, with the S&P 500 down 1.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 430 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.35%. In the first half hour of trading, the declines of the three major stock indices narrowed to less than 1%, with small-cap stocks taking the lead in turning positive. In the first 25 minutes of trading, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turned positive, with the Russell 2000 leading the gains, rising more than 1.5%.</p><p>At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29%, the S&P 500 rose 0.28%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.63%, marking the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that the Nasdaq had fallen more than 4% intraday before closing higher.</p><p>Major tech stocks showed mixed performance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 0.49%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 0.11%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>It rose 0.22%, Yama rose 1.33%, and Meta rose 1.83%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It fell 2.6%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles fell by more than 9%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday, with new energy vehicle stocks plummeting and Nio Motor Company falling more than 9%.</p><p>Alibaba closed down more than 2%, Baidu down nearly 5%, Tencent ADR down 0.8%, Pinduoduo down more than 3%, Bilibili down 2.5%, and iQiyi down 0.5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Autohome</a>It fell more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Qutoutiao</a>It fell nearly 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The stock price fell by more than 2%, while Wuxin Technology fell by nearly 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>It fell by more than 1%.</p><p>Among new energy vehicle stocks, Nio Motor Company fell by more than 9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p>3. European stocks plunged across the board on Monday, marking their biggest single-day drop in 19 months.</p><p>European stocks plunged on Monday, hitting their worst single-day trading record in three months. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell to 45,640 points, a drop of 3.8%. This is the worst single-day drop since June 11, 2020.</p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 3.80%, France's CAC 40 index fell 3.97%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 2.63%.</p><p>A senior economist at Exante stated, \"Before this week's poor start, risk assets had just experienced a rather bearish week. Investors...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The fourth-quarter earnings results were unsatisfactory, and on a broader level, concerns about the Federal Reserve's tightening policies and high global inflation also severely dampened risk appetite.</p><p>4. International crude oil prices closed lower on Monday, with WTI crude futures down 2.15%.</p><p>International crude oil prices closed lower on Monday, with WTI March crude futures falling $1.83, or 2.15%, to $83.31 a barrel.</p><p>Brent crude oil futures for March delivery closed down $1.62, or 1.84%, at $86.27 a barrel.</p><p>The sell-off was driven by broader volatility in financial markets, with the strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies also impacting oil prices, as higher oil prices make them less attractive to overseas buyers.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed 0.54% higher on Monday, with a sharp drop in US stocks providing support for gold prices.</p><p>Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, said: \"Gold is clearly favored as a portfolio insurance. Rising interest rates usually have a negative impact on gold, but since it is politically impossible to bail out stock investors with cheap money, the risk of the Fed rate hike too late has now become even worse.\"</p><p>February gold futures, the most actively traded contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose $9.90 from the previous trading day on the 24th to settle at $1,841.70 an ounce, a gain of 0.54%.</p><p>6. Bitcoin stopped falling and rebounded, with risk assets rebounding to help it reverse its five-day losing streak.</p><p>The late-day rebound in cryptocurrencies mirrored the rise in the US stock market. The 40-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has reached nearly 0.66, the highest level since data compilation began in 2010. A similar correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is also at a record level.</p><p>Cryptocurrencies have faced widespread selling pressure in recent weeks, with traders pointing to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a decline in tech stocks prompting investors to flee risky assets. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $69,000 last November.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Business activity in the United States has almost come to a standstill due to the impact of the Omicron outbreak.</p><p>IHS<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Data released on Monday showed that the preliminary reading of the composite purchasing managers' index for December fell 6.2 points to an 18-month low of 50.8. Data above 50 suggest expansion.</p><p>Service sector indicators also fell to their lowest level since July 2020, with labor shortages and employee absenteeism putting pressure on service sector activity.</p><p>The decline in the manufacturing index was relatively moderate, but it remained at a new low since October 2020, with supply chains still disrupted and output constrained.</p><p>“Output has been affected by Omicron far more than demand, and the strong growth in new business inflows suggests that growth will resume once restrictions are eased,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.</p><p>2. US food prices surge repeatedly, prompting major corporations to clash with the Biden administration.</p><p>Food companies stated that the price increase was in line with market principles, and that extreme weather and the disruption of the supply chain caused by the pandemic increased production costs and reduced food supply. At the same time, demand is increasing both within and outside the United States. However, the Biden administration and some senators believe that industry monopolies are the main source of price increases, and that a few giant companies have the ability to raise prices and profit from inflation.</p><p>3. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are high, and the financial markets are on edge! The ruble once fell by more than 2%, and European stocks declined across the board.</p><p>Government bonds, currencies, and stock markets in Russia and Ukraine have already been hit, and an escalation of the situation could trigger a hasty evacuation of investors.</p><p>Although the United States and Europe have not yet discussed sanctions on Russian commodities, the conflict could destabilize natural gas and wheat futures prices and even threaten the short-term performance of European stocks.</p><p>Recently, as some investors turn to seeking the safest assets, their interest in investing in US Treasury bonds has surged.</p><p>EU foreign ministers will discuss Ukraine with US Secretary of State Blinken on Monday, and some analysts believe that volatility in financial markets may increase during this period.</p><p>4. WHO: The worst phase of the epidemic is expected to end this year</p><p>WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that humans will coexist with the novel coronavirus for the foreseeable future, and more variant strains are likely to emerge under the current circumstances. If countries can fully utilize all strategies and tools, the worst phase of the pandemic can end this year, and the COVID-19 pandemic will no longer be a global public health emergency.</p><p>5. Germany's electrical industry sales are expected to exceed 200 billion euros for the first time in 2021.</p><p>Between January and November 2021, Germany's electronics and electrical industry saw production grow by nearly 9%, while sales increased by nearly 10% year-on-year. The association predicts that the industry's overall sales will exceed 200 billion euros for the first time in 2021.</p><p>The association's president, Gunther Kegel, said that almost all electrical sub-sectors have achieved \"positive development\" thanks to increased exports to other countries. Among them, the battery industry grew by nearly 40%.</p><p>6. German Chancellor: Will promote a new round of COVID-19 vaccination campaign</p><p>At a press conference after the meeting, German Chancellor Scholz said that Germany needs to adhere to its current epidemic prevention measures while vigorously promoting a new round of vaccination campaigns.</p><p>Scholz stated that although Germany has made some progress in vaccination, it is far from enough.</p><p>7. Traders predict that the decline in US stocks will not cause the Federal Reserve to pause tightening; March rate hike is imminent.</p><p>Historically, sharp declines in the U.S. stock market and other risky assets have temporarily halted policymakers, but this time, even with technology stocks leading the stock market crash, bets on rate hike this year remain unwavering.</p><p>The swap market shows that the Federal Reserve expects rate hike of 25 basis points in March, and the market expects rate hike to be close to a full percentage point for the whole of 2022.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206888889\" target=\"_blank\">Meta launches next-generation artificial intelligence supercomputer to support infrastructure development in metaverse.</a></p><p>Formerly known as Facebook<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>Inc. launched its \"AI Research SuperCluster\" (hereinafter referred to as \"RSC\") on its official website.</p><p>Meta believes that the RSC is currently one of the fastest artificial intelligence (AI) supercomputers in the world, and \"once fully completed by mid-2022, it will officially become the world's fastest AI supercomputer.\"</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206002788\" target=\"_blank\">Three U.S. states and Washington, D.C. are suing Google for improperly obtaining user location data.</a></p><p>Washington State Attorney General Karl Racine said in a statement, \"Google misled consumers into believing that changing their account and device settings would protect their privacy and limit (Google's) access to their personal data.\" The attorneys general of Texas, Washington, and Indiana will also reportedly file lawsuits in their respective states.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206002095\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon will open its first physical fashion store, with intelligent algorithms and a magic wardrobe as highlights.</a></p><p>E-commerce giant Amazon is once again extending its reach into the physical industry. On January 20, it announced that it would open its first fashion store and incorporate technological elements into the store, including algorithmic recommendations and a \"magic wardrobe,\" but has not yet announced the specific opening date.</p><p>The new store, reportedly named \"Amazon Style,\" will open in The Americana at Brand mall in The Greater Los Angeles area, alongside Nordstrom department store,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">Urban Outfitters</a>, J. Stores such as Crew and H&M are located nearby. According to Simoina Vasen, general manager of Amazon Wind, Amazon \"has no need to be involved in brick-and-mortar retail\" without significantly improving the customer shopping experience.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2205004571\" target=\"_blank\">Has Merck lost another game? It is rumored that the EMA will give priority to approving Pfizer's oral COVID-19 drug.</a></p><p>Last December, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) provided guidance to member states on how to use these two drugs as emergency treatments, while conducting a rolling review, allowing member states to use them before official EU approval. A few EU countries, such as Italy, Germany and Belgium, purchased Paxlovid and Molnupiravir.</p><p>Sources say that although Merck submitted its application earlier than Pfizer, they submitted their final efficacy data later, so European regulators took more time to review the final data.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2205009377\" target=\"_blank\">Nio establishes nearly $8 million insurance brokerage firm, continuing Friday's pre-market decline.</a></p><p>NIO is not the first company to establish an insurance brokerage firm; as early as August 2020...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) established a company of the same nature, which is wholly owned by Tesla Motors Hong Kong Limited.</p><p>In addition, on December 27, 2021, the Shanghai Insurance Exchange launched a new energy vehicle insurance trading platform (hereinafter referred to as the trading platform) and listed the first batch of new energy vehicle-specific insurance products from 12 property insurance companies, including PICC Property & Casualty Insurance, Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance, and CPIC Property & Casualty Insurance, to provide support for the implementation of new energy vehicle-specific insurance products.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206788598\" target=\"_blank\">IBM's fourth-quarter revenue saw its biggest increase in a decade, surging as much as 7% in after-hours trading.</a></p><p>After the US stock market closed Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company released its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2021. Financial reports showed that the company's high revenue and earnings per share both exceeded analysts' expectations, and IBM's US stock price rose from 2.95% to 6.99% in after-hours trading. Since the beginning of the year, IBM's stock price has fallen by 5.31%, outperforming the 8.71% decline in the S&P Global 100 Index during the same period.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130960069","content_text":"摘要：①美股三大股指盘中暴跌后尾盘强势转涨，纳指涨0.63%；美油跌2.15%；②俄乌剑拔弩张，卢布一度跌超2%，欧股全线下挫；③俄罗斯货币卢布汇率波动指标升至2020年11月以来的最高水平，俄股市一度大跌逾10%。海外市场1、美股上演“惊魂一夜”！纳指收复4.9%跌幅1月24日周一，道指开盘跌近400点且连跌七日，标普500指数跌1.6%且连跌五日，纳指再跌2%。指数跌幅迅速扩大，标普大盘从三周前所创盘中新高回落10%，进入技术性回调区间。开盘不到两个半小时，慌性抛售加剧，科技股居多的纳指和纳指100均跌超4%，道指跌幅扩大至950点，标普跌3.4%，美油WTI跌超3%。开盘快三小时，道指跌超1000点，罗素2000小盘股指数较去年11月的收盘历史最高回落20%，进入技术位熊市。“恐慌指数”VIX最高上逼39，创2020年11月以来的一年多最高，涨35%为去年11月奥密克戎消息前爆发以来最大涨幅。收盘前两个小时，美股跌幅大幅收窄至午盘时的一半，标普跌1.4%，道指跌430点，纳指跌1.35%。收盘前半小时，三大股指跌幅收窄至不足1%，小盘股率先转涨。收盘前25分钟，纳指和费城半导体指数转涨，罗素2000涨超1.5%领跑。截至收盘，道指收涨0.29%，标普500指数涨0.28%，纳指涨0.63%，自2008年金融危机以来，纳指首次盘中跌超4%后转而收涨。大型科技股涨跌不一，苹果跌0.49%，微软涨0.11%，谷歌A涨0.22%，亚马涨1.33%，Meta涨1.83%，奈飞跌2.6%。2、热门中概股周一收盘多数走低 蔚来汽车跌超9%热门中概股周一收盘多数走低，新能源汽车股大跌，蔚来汽车跌超9%。阿里巴巴收跌超2%，百度跌近5%，腾讯ADR跌0.8%，拼多多跌超3%，B站跌2.5%，爱奇艺跌0.5%。途牛、汽车之家跌超10%，新东方跌超5%，百度、趣头条跌近5%，拼多多、贝壳、跌超3%，哔哩哔哩、京东、跌超2%，雾芯科技跌近2%，网易、唯品会跌超1%。新能源汽车股中，蔚来汽车跌超9%，小鹏汽车跌超4%，理想汽车跌超2%。3、欧股周一全线暴跌 创19个月以来最大单日跌幅欧洲股市周一暴跌，创三个月来最糟糕的单日交易记录。斯托克欧洲600指数下跌至45640点，跌幅3.8%。这是自2020年6月11日以来最严重的单日跌幅。德国DAX指数下跌3.80%，法国CAC 40指数下跌3.97%，英国FTSE 100指数下跌2.63%。Exante 的高级经济学家表示：“本周开局不佳之前，风险资产刚刚经历了相当熊市的一周。投资者对美国银行第四季度的盈利结果并不满意，而在更宏观的层面上，对美联储收紧政策和全球高通胀水平的担忧也严重打压了风险偏好。”4、国际原油周一收跌 WTI原油期货跌2.15%国际原油周一收跌，WTI 3月原油期货收跌1.83美元，跌幅2.15%，报83.31美元/桶。布伦特3月原油期货收跌1.62美元，跌幅1.84%，报86.27美元/桶。此次抛售是由金融市场更广泛的波动推动的，美元兑其他货币走强，也对油价造成了影响，因为油价变高，对海外买家的吸引力也会降低。5、黄金期货周一收高0.54% 美股大跌令金价获得支撑BullionVault研究主管Adrian Ash表示：“黄金作为投资组合的保险显然受到青睐。利率上升通常会给黄金带来不利影响，但由于政治上不可能用廉价资金拯救股票投资者，因此美联储加息太晚的风险现在变得更糟了”。纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2月黄金期价24日比前一交易日上涨9.9美元，收于每盎司1841.7美元，涨幅为0.54%。6、比特币止跌回升 风险资产反弹帮助其扭转连续五天的跌势加密货币尾盘反弹与美国股市的上涨如出一辙。比特币与纳斯达克100指数的40天相关系数已经达到近0.66，是2010年开始汇编相关数据以来的最高水平。比特币与标普500指数的一个类似相关系数也处于创纪录水平。近几周来，加密货币遭遇了广泛的抛售压力，交易员指出美联储发出鹰派信号以及科技股下跌促使投资者逃离风险资产。自去年11月创下69000美元的历史高位以来，比特币已下跌逾50%。国际宏观1、受奥米克戎疫情的影响 美国商业活动几乎停滞IHS Markit周一公布的数据显示，12月综合采购经理指数初值下滑6.2个点，至18个月低点50.8。数据高于50暗示扩张。服务业指标同样跌至2020年7月以来的最低水平，劳动力短缺和员工缺勤令服务业活动承压。制造业指数跌幅相比之下较为温和，但是指数仍旧为2020年10月以来的新低，供应链依然不畅，产出受限。“产出受到奥米克戎的影响比需求受到的影响大得多，新业务流入的强劲增长暗示一旦限制得以缓和，增速就会重新恢复，”IHS Markit首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示。2、美国食品价格连番大涨 巨头企业与拜登政府互怼食品公司表示，价格上涨符合市场规律，极端天气和疫情对供应链的干扰增加了生产成本，减少了食品供给；与此同时，美国境内外的需求都在增加。但拜登政府和一些参议员则认为，行业垄断才是涨价的主要源头，少数巨头公司有能力抬高价格，并从通货膨胀中获利。3、俄乌剑拔弩张，金融市场风声鹤唳! 卢布一度跌超2%，欧股全线下挫俄罗斯和乌克兰的政府债券、货币和股市已经受到冲击，事态升级有可能引发投资者匆忙撤离。尽管美国和欧洲尚未讨论对俄罗斯大宗商品的制裁，但冲突有可能会破坏天然气和小麦期货价格的稳定，甚至威胁到欧股短期走势。近期，随着一些投资者转向寻找最安全的资产，他们对美债的投资兴趣激增。欧盟外长将于周一与美国国务卿布林肯讨论乌克兰问题，有分析人士认为在此期间金融市场的波动可能将加剧4、世卫组织：今年有望结束疫情的最严重阶段世卫组织总干事谭德塞表示，在可预见的未来，人类将与新冠病毒共存，当前形势下很可能出现更多变异株。如果各国能全面使用所有战略和工具，今年就可以结束疫情的最严重阶段，新冠疫情将不再是全球突发公共卫生事件。5、德国电气产业2021年销售额有望首次突破2000亿欧元2021年1月至11月期间，德国电子电气行业生产增长近9%，销售额同比增长近10%。该协会预计2021年行业整体销售额有望第一次突破2000亿欧元大关。该协会主席冈瑟·凯格尔称，受益于对其他国家的出口增加，几乎所有电气子行业都取得“积极发展”。其中，电池行业增长了近40% 。6、德国总理：将推动新一轮新冠疫苗接种运动德国总理朔尔茨在会后的新闻发布会上表示，德国需要坚持现行的防疫措施，同时大力推进新一轮的疫苗接种运动。朔尔茨称，虽然德国在疫苗接种方面已经取得了一定成果，但还远远不够。7、交易员预测美股下跌不会让美联储暂缓紧缩 3月加息箭在弦上历史上美国股市和其他风险资产的急剧下跌曾经令决策者暂时止步，但这次，即便是在当前科技股带领股市大跌的情况下，对今年加息的押注依然没有动摇，掉期市场显示， 美联储3月料加息25个基点，市场预期2022年全年接近加息一个完整百分点 。公司新闻1、助力元宇宙基建 Meta推出新一代人工智能超级计算机前身为脸书的Meta Platforms， Inc．在其官网推出了公司的“人工智能研究超级集群”（AI Research SuperCluster，下文简称“RSC”）。Meta认为，RSC是目前世界上运行速度最快的一批人工智能（AI）超级计算机之一，“一旦在2022年中期完全建成，它将正式成为世界上最快的AI超级计算机。”2、美国三州和华盛顿特区起诉谷歌不当获取用户位置数据华盛顿州总检察长卡尔·拉辛（Karl Racine）在一份声明中表示：“谷歌错误地引导消费者相信，更改他们的账户和设备设置可以保护他们的隐私，并能够限制（谷歌）公司访问他们的个人数据。”据报道，得克萨斯州、华盛顿州和印第安纳州的总检察长也将在各自的州提出诉讼。3、亚马逊将开设首家实体时装店 智能算法、魔法衣橱成亮点电商巨头亚马逊再次将触角伸向实体产业。1月20日，它宣布将开设首家时装店，并在店中加入科技元素，包括算法推荐和“魔法衣橱”，但尚未公布具体开店时间。据悉，这家新店名为“亚马逊风”（Amazon Style），将开设在大洛杉矶地区的The Americana at Brand商场内，与Nordstrom百货、Urban Outfitters、J。 Crew、H&M等店铺为邻。按照亚马逊风总经理西莫伊娜·瓦森（Simoina Vasen）的说法，如果不能大大改善客户的购物体验，亚马逊就“没有参与实体零售业的必要”。4、默沙东又输一局？传EMA将优先审批辉瑞新冠口服药去年12月，欧洲药品监管局（EMA）就如何将这两种药物用作紧急治疗向成员国提供了指导，同时进行了滚动审查，使得成员国得以在欧盟正式批准之前采用这两种药物。意大利、德国和比利时等少数几个欧盟国家采购了Paxlovid和Molnupiravir。消息人士称，尽管默沙东比辉瑞更早提出申请，但他们提交最终疗效数据的时间更晚，因此欧洲监管机构花了更多时间来审查最后的数据。5、蔚来成立近800万美元保险经纪公司，盘前延续上周五跌势而蔚来也并非第一家设立保险经纪公司的企业，早在2020年8月份，特斯拉（TSLA.US）就成立了相同性质的公司，由特斯拉汽车香港有限公司100%控股。此外，2021年12月27日，上海保险交易所上线新能源车险交易平台（以下简称交易平台），并首批挂牌人保财险、平安财险、太保产险等12家财险公司的新能源汽车专属保险产品，为新能源汽车专属保险产品落地服务提供支持。6、IBM第四季度营收创十年来最大增幅，盘后一度飙升7%美股周一盘后，IBM公布了截止2021年12月31日的第四季度财报。财报显示，公司营收高和每股收益均超出了分析师的预期，IBM美股盘后涨幅从2.95%一度扩大至6.99%。年初以来，IBM的股价累计下跌5.31%，优于同期标准普尔全球100指数累计8.71%的跌幅。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0,".SPX":0,".IXIC":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007829815,"gmtCreate":1642830630883,"gmtModify":1676533751208,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007829815","repostId":"1166623001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166623001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642816721,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166623001?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-22 09:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Netflix's stock price has been stagnant for a long time, and the new year brings immense pressure.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166623001","media":"智通财经网","summary":"王者垂暮？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Shiye</p><p>After the US stock market closed on January 20, Eastern Time, Netflix released its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>The financial report shows that the company's Q4 revenue was $7.709 billion, exceeding market expectations of $7.708 billion and $6.644 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%. Net income was $607 million, compared to market expectations of $374 million and $542 million in the same period last year, representing a year-over-year increase of 12%. Diluted earnings per share were $1.33, compared to market expectations of $0.82 and $1.19 in the same period last year.</p><p>In addition, the company's revenue for the whole of 2021 reached approximately 29.7 billion yuan, and its net profit for the whole year was 5.1 billion yuan. Full-year diluted earnings per share were $11.24, exceeding market expectations of $10.7.</p><p>At first glance, Netflix's performance last year was quite impressive, with many indicators exceeding market expectations. However, after the earnings report was released, Netflix's stock price plummeted by 20% in after-hours trading. In fact, Netflix's stock price has been under pressure recently, especially since the beginning of 2022, when it has fallen by more than 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24256afc889a3655d5af9c4fa34a222c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Going back further, in 2021, Netflix successfully gained a large number of \"fans\" by launching a series of popular movies and TV series such as \"Squid Game\", which also boosted its performance, and its stock price rose by 11% throughout the year. However, considering that the S&P 500 rose 28% in 2021 and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, also rose 23% in 2021, Netflix's stock performance in 2021 was not \"passable\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7aa4f4375b8cfc44ce36691411ef0ab\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix's stock price rose less than the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a813e6a701f73928c04dbbbcd08313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix's stock price rose less than the Nasdaq.</p><p>There are various reasons behind the decline in the company's stock price, but for Netflix, the main reason affecting its stock price is the number of subscribers.</p><p><b>The Tragedy of Subscription</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix saw a net increase of 8.28 million paid streaming subscribers worldwide, exceeding market expectations of 8.13 million. By the end of 2021, Netflix had a total of 221.84 million paid streaming subscribers worldwide. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2022, Netflix expects its paying streaming subscribers to increase by 2.5 million, down from 4 million in the same period last year and far below the market expectation of an increase of 6.26 million.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, although Netflix's net increase in subscribers exceeded market expectations of 8.13 million, it should be noted that in the third-quarter financial report, management had optimistically predicted that the company would add 8.5 million new users in the fourth quarter. Zhitong Finance APP noted that the decline in subscription growth is also reflected in the annualized rate of subscriber growth. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Netflix's subscriber growth rate reached an astonishing 21.9%. However, after entering 2021, the growth rate dropped from double digits to single digits. In the latest guidance provided by management for the first quarter, its user growth rate was only 8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842a699d0a8524eb18749294b2466784\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>Some have argued that as the COVID-19 pandemic gradually subsides, people's demand for home entertainment will decrease, which could potentially impact Netflix. During the Q3 earnings call, Netflix executives stated that the company's subscriber numbers had weathered the \"fluctuations\" during the COVID-19 pandemic and were slowly returning to \"normal\" levels. Therefore, perhaps it was the COVID-19 pandemic that pushed Netflix to a level that did not belong to it, and as management began to realize that high growth was unsustainable, it gave relatively conservative guidance.</p><p><b>Operating profit margin</b><b>Below the \"3% growth line\"</b></p><p>A key factor in the market's previous bullish outlook on Netflix's stock price was that, despite considering quarterly fluctuations, its overall profitability indicators would continue to expand over time.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix's operating profit margin was 8%, higher than the company's forecast guidance of 6.5%, but still significantly lower than the 14% in the same period last year. The operating profit margin for the whole of 2021 still reached 20.9%, which was above the company's previous expected range of 20%.</p><p>Although the company's overall revenue maintained rapid growth in the fourth quarter, operating income was only 632 million yuan, a 34% decrease compared to the same period in 2020 and a 64% decrease compared to the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa99576b0c290d8963c855648f68057\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>It should be said that the company's management had already taken precautions against this low operating profit margin. At the previous meeting, management attributed the decrease in operating profit margin to Netflix's decision to broadcast its backlogged program content in the fourth quarter, which led to a significant amortization of the company's program content assets. Netflix also mentioned the above reasons again in this financial report. In the fourth quarter, amortization of content assets reached $3.74 billion, the largest amortization in nearly two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd56ee165655765c5314d17c002d12e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>In addition, Netflix predicts that the company's operating revenue for the first quarter of this year will be $1.765 billion, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%. This guidance represents a slight decrease compared to the performance in the first quarter of last year. Meanwhile, the company expects its operating profit margin in 2022 to fail to achieve the previously promised 3% annual growth rate (i.e., the operating profit margin should have reached 22% this year, but the company's guidance range is 19-20%). Management attributed the decline in expected profit margins more to exchange rate fluctuations than to lower revenue levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1eb3366bf88da0f6562637c86008ce\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Will Netflix's operating profit margin growth fall below the \"3% growth line\"?</p><p><b>Fierce competition in streaming media</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e476061a5b8f0924ec6c2eeaba30fd\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Unit: Million</p><p>Data source: Financial reports of major companies</p><p>Note: This is the number of subscribers at the end of each quarter. Discovery+ was not released until after 2021, so previous data is not included in the statistics.</p><p>In the past, regarding market competition, Netflix has typically stated that the company faces competitors from different fields, but other companies' streaming services do not pose a significant threat to it. Netflix has consistently maintained that streaming viewing time has not yet reached the desired level. However, in Netflix's latest letter to shareholders this quarter, one sentence stood out particularly: \"While intensified competition may affect our profit margin growth...\" Some analysts believe this is strong evidence that Netflix acknowledges fierce competition: streaming competition is affecting its user growth.</p><p>In terms of subscribers, Disney+ has emerged as a dark horse. Although the latest data will not be released until the financial results are released in February, based on past information, as of the third quarter of 2021, Disney+ had more than 118 million paying subscribers worldwide. The streaming service added 2.1 million subscribers in the third quarter and 44.4 million subscribers in the past 12 months. Disney has also raised its user forecast for 2024 from the initial range of 60 million to 90 million to 230 million to 260 million.</p><p>Besides Disney+, the momentum of other competitors should not be underestimated. In May of last year, AT&T agreed to merge its subsidiary WarnerMedia with media giant Discovery Inc. to strengthen its competitiveness in the streaming market. Reports indicate that in addition to renaming Discovery to Warner Bros. Discovery, the new team also intends to merge HBO Max and Discovery+ into a single platform.</p><p>On the one hand, HBO MAX itself has a certain user base. It is understood that by the end of 2021, HBO and HBO Max had approximately 73.8 million subscribers, placing them among the top in the highly competitive streaming market. Last October, AT&T predicted that its total number of subscribers would increase to 73 million by the end of the year, so the actual number this time exceeded the company's previous forecast, putting it AT the forefront of the highly competitive streaming market. And in launching including The Sex Lives of College Girls and Sex and The City Following the release of sequels to popular series, HBO Max saw a significant increase in subscriber numbers in the fourth quarter.</p><p>On the other hand, thanks to the successful launch of Discovery+ in 2021, the company's streaming service saw its subscribers surge to 20 million in just three quarters. After the merger, it is believed that the synergy will bring more benefits and more subscriptions to the company.</p><p>While Netflix's subscription growth may not be as outstanding as that of some of its streaming peers, its massive user base has allowed it to barely hold the top spot in the streaming industry. Zhitong Finance APP previously reported that in the relatively strong third quarter, driven by the hit TV series \"Squid Game,\" the number of new users reached 4.38 million, exceeding previous expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4efc8ce5d6ac5bec8417523c62ce4c6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source ：Nielsen research</p><p>In a fiercely competitive market, Netflix faces competition not only from its streaming peers, but also from cable television, broadcast television, and other fields such as video games.</p><p>In fact, according to the survey, in November, the Thanksgiving holiday and increased rest time encouraged consumers to spend 5% more time watching television programs each week. It is worth noting that the increased time away from school gives students the opportunity to spend time on video games (including in the “Other” category) rather than watching content on Disney+.</p><p>Although radio and television market share declined compared to 10 months ago, mainly due to declining viewership ratings for general TV dramas and sitcoms, sports programming remained strong, with viewership rising by 7% even without the World Series.</p><p>In streaming, Disney+ benefited from a nearly 20% increase in viewing time that month, with its market share rising by 1% compared to October.</p><p>There are two main factors driving this growth: increased movie viewing time for the platform's main users (children), and the release of new movies \"Shangqi\" and \"Jungle Boat\" by Disney+ Day that month.</p><p>In addition, Amazon's Prime Video's total market share remained at 2%, but total viewing time on the platform still increased by 8% compared to October.</p><p>Netflix's overall market share remained relatively stable at 7% in October and November, a 1% increase from 6% in September. In the fluid industry, Netflix's biggest challenge comes from Youtube, which is closely following Netflix in terms of overall market share (6%). Of course, HULU is also a competitor not to be underestimated, as its high cost-performance ratio is increasingly favored by audiences.</p><p>In terms of pricing, Netflix has consistently maintained a high position in the industry. In 2022, Netflix announced an increase in its subscription prices in the United States and Canada. In the United States, the basic account fee increased from $8.99 to $9.99 per month, the standard account fee increased from $13.99 to $15.49 per month, and the premium account fee increased from $17.99 to $19.99 per month. In Canada, the standard account fee increased from CAD 14.99 to CAD 16.49, the premium account fee increased by CAD 2 to CAD 20.99, and the basic account fee remained unchanged at CAD 9.99. If competition does begin to erode some of the growth in subscribers, then price increases could increase the risk of customer churn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91fff80dee293a51bff366a7c25e51fe\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The \"trump card\" of original film series is still in hand.</b></p><p>In 2021, Netflix launched a series of exciting programs. According to statistics from Google's most searched TV series list, six of the top 10 most searched TV series are original Netflix series. Among them, the well-known \"Squid Game\" ranked first, while another Netflix series, \"Bridgerton,\" ranked second.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2e1b6e4b7889ecf041401c63a996f1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Google</p><p>The hit TV series \"Squid Game\" became an instant global sensation upon its release. The series was launched at the end of the third quarter and garnered 1.65 billion hours of viewership in the first four weeks of the fourth quarter, setting a new record for Netflix's highest-ever viewership. Meanwhile, the management confirmed that \"Squid Game\" will launch a second season. Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said, \"The Squid Game universe has just begun!\" In addition, with the popularity of Squid Game, Netflix has also launched a series of merchandise related to the series, such as the sportswear worn by the contestants in Squid Game.</p><p>in December, Netflix released a series of new sequels: The Witcher, You, Emily in Paris, Cobra Kai, and Maid.</p><p>In addition, the Spanish TV series \"Banknote House,\" one of the most successful foreign-language TV series in Netflix's history, came to a perfect conclusion in the fourth quarter, having garnered a total of 6.7 billion hours of airtime since its first season aired. Meanwhile, Netflix is intending to expand the \"Banknote House\" universe and will launch a Korean version of \"Banknote House\" later this year.</p><p>In 2022, Netflix will continue to focus on original series and launch a series of new original series. In addition, sequels to popular IP series such as \"Stranger Things\" and \"Bridgeton\" will also be released this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d76dca983c7803be3c4b382f8a194c\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Investment banks that \"seize the opportunity\"</b></p><p>Prior to Netflix's earnings report, nearly 40 institutions gave Netflix an \"overweight\" rating.</p><p>After Netflix released its financial report, KeyBanc was the first to downgrade its rating on Netflix from \"overweight\" to \"hold\". Just before the January earnings report was released, the agency reiterated its \"overweight\" rating on Netflix. Currently, the bank's analysts believe that the stock has almost no growth drivers.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs analysts gave Netflix a \"neutral\" investment rating. The bank's analysts believe that the stock has underperformed over the past 18 months, and the market remains debatable about how the company's growth rate would be under normal post-pandemic conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41651b5eb31afb1cbb7f7b4ad9a4c737\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Institutional ratings and target prices for Netflix over the past three months</p><p>According to relevant statistics, in the past three months, the average price target for Netflix for the next year was $535.83, the highest was $800, and the lowest was $342.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82bf43c7d2250b760d4b4e27041c6ef5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Target price range</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Netflix's management described its performance as \"good business conditions, high user retention rate, decreased user churn rate, and increased viewership.\" However, judging from various data, it is an indisputable fact that Netflix is facing increasingly fierce competition in the streaming market. As the COVID-19 pandemic subsides and people's lives return to normal, the range within which Netflix's user growth will ultimately \"normalize\" is a key factor for all investors and an important factor determining its stock price trend.</p><p>In addition, Netflix did not conduct any share buybacks in the fourth quarter. According to its financial report, Netflix will use some of its cash to acquire Roald Dahl Stories. Whether Netflix can bring new growth to the gaming industry in the new year after it officially announced its entry into the gaming industry last year is another key topic of market attention.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix's stock price has been stagnant for a long time, and the new year brings immense pressure.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix's stock price has been stagnant for a long time, and the new year brings immense pressure.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-22 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Shiye</p><p>After the US stock market closed on January 20, Eastern Time, Netflix released its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>The financial report shows that the company's Q4 revenue was $7.709 billion, exceeding market expectations of $7.708 billion and $6.644 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%. Net income was $607 million, compared to market expectations of $374 million and $542 million in the same period last year, representing a year-over-year increase of 12%. Diluted earnings per share were $1.33, compared to market expectations of $0.82 and $1.19 in the same period last year.</p><p>In addition, the company's revenue for the whole of 2021 reached approximately 29.7 billion yuan, and its net profit for the whole year was 5.1 billion yuan. Full-year diluted earnings per share were $11.24, exceeding market expectations of $10.7.</p><p>At first glance, Netflix's performance last year was quite impressive, with many indicators exceeding market expectations. However, after the earnings report was released, Netflix's stock price plummeted by 20% in after-hours trading. In fact, Netflix's stock price has been under pressure recently, especially since the beginning of 2022, when it has fallen by more than 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24256afc889a3655d5af9c4fa34a222c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Going back further, in 2021, Netflix successfully gained a large number of \"fans\" by launching a series of popular movies and TV series such as \"Squid Game\", which also boosted its performance, and its stock price rose by 11% throughout the year. However, considering that the S&P 500 rose 28% in 2021 and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, also rose 23% in 2021, Netflix's stock performance in 2021 was not \"passable\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7aa4f4375b8cfc44ce36691411ef0ab\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix's stock price rose less than the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a813e6a701f73928c04dbbbcd08313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix's stock price rose less than the Nasdaq.</p><p>There are various reasons behind the decline in the company's stock price, but for Netflix, the main reason affecting its stock price is the number of subscribers.</p><p><b>The Tragedy of Subscription</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix saw a net increase of 8.28 million paid streaming subscribers worldwide, exceeding market expectations of 8.13 million. By the end of 2021, Netflix had a total of 221.84 million paid streaming subscribers worldwide. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2022, Netflix expects its paying streaming subscribers to increase by 2.5 million, down from 4 million in the same period last year and far below the market expectation of an increase of 6.26 million.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, although Netflix's net increase in subscribers exceeded market expectations of 8.13 million, it should be noted that in the third-quarter financial report, management had optimistically predicted that the company would add 8.5 million new users in the fourth quarter. Zhitong Finance APP noted that the decline in subscription growth is also reflected in the annualized rate of subscriber growth. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Netflix's subscriber growth rate reached an astonishing 21.9%. However, after entering 2021, the growth rate dropped from double digits to single digits. In the latest guidance provided by management for the first quarter, its user growth rate was only 8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842a699d0a8524eb18749294b2466784\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>Some have argued that as the COVID-19 pandemic gradually subsides, people's demand for home entertainment will decrease, which could potentially impact Netflix. During the Q3 earnings call, Netflix executives stated that the company's subscriber numbers had weathered the \"fluctuations\" during the COVID-19 pandemic and were slowly returning to \"normal\" levels. Therefore, perhaps it was the COVID-19 pandemic that pushed Netflix to a level that did not belong to it, and as management began to realize that high growth was unsustainable, it gave relatively conservative guidance.</p><p><b>Operating profit margin</b><b>Below the \"3% growth line\"</b></p><p>A key factor in the market's previous bullish outlook on Netflix's stock price was that, despite considering quarterly fluctuations, its overall profitability indicators would continue to expand over time.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix's operating profit margin was 8%, higher than the company's forecast guidance of 6.5%, but still significantly lower than the 14% in the same period last year. The operating profit margin for the whole of 2021 still reached 20.9%, which was above the company's previous expected range of 20%.</p><p>Although the company's overall revenue maintained rapid growth in the fourth quarter, operating income was only 632 million yuan, a 34% decrease compared to the same period in 2020 and a 64% decrease compared to the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa99576b0c290d8963c855648f68057\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>It should be said that the company's management had already taken precautions against this low operating profit margin. At the previous meeting, management attributed the decrease in operating profit margin to Netflix's decision to broadcast its backlogged program content in the fourth quarter, which led to a significant amortization of the company's program content assets. Netflix also mentioned the above reasons again in this financial report. In the fourth quarter, amortization of content assets reached $3.74 billion, the largest amortization in nearly two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd56ee165655765c5314d17c002d12e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>In addition, Netflix predicts that the company's operating revenue for the first quarter of this year will be $1.765 billion, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%. This guidance represents a slight decrease compared to the performance in the first quarter of last year. Meanwhile, the company expects its operating profit margin in 2022 to fail to achieve the previously promised 3% annual growth rate (i.e., the operating profit margin should have reached 22% this year, but the company's guidance range is 19-20%). Management attributed the decline in expected profit margins more to exchange rate fluctuations than to lower revenue levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1eb3366bf88da0f6562637c86008ce\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Will Netflix's operating profit margin growth fall below the \"3% growth line\"?</p><p><b>Fierce competition in streaming media</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e476061a5b8f0924ec6c2eeaba30fd\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Unit: Million</p><p>Data source: Financial reports of major companies</p><p>Note: This is the number of subscribers at the end of each quarter. Discovery+ was not released until after 2021, so previous data is not included in the statistics.</p><p>In the past, regarding market competition, Netflix has typically stated that the company faces competitors from different fields, but other companies' streaming services do not pose a significant threat to it. Netflix has consistently maintained that streaming viewing time has not yet reached the desired level. However, in Netflix's latest letter to shareholders this quarter, one sentence stood out particularly: \"While intensified competition may affect our profit margin growth...\" Some analysts believe this is strong evidence that Netflix acknowledges fierce competition: streaming competition is affecting its user growth.</p><p>In terms of subscribers, Disney+ has emerged as a dark horse. Although the latest data will not be released until the financial results are released in February, based on past information, as of the third quarter of 2021, Disney+ had more than 118 million paying subscribers worldwide. The streaming service added 2.1 million subscribers in the third quarter and 44.4 million subscribers in the past 12 months. Disney has also raised its user forecast for 2024 from the initial range of 60 million to 90 million to 230 million to 260 million.</p><p>Besides Disney+, the momentum of other competitors should not be underestimated. In May of last year, AT&T agreed to merge its subsidiary WarnerMedia with media giant Discovery Inc. to strengthen its competitiveness in the streaming market. Reports indicate that in addition to renaming Discovery to Warner Bros. Discovery, the new team also intends to merge HBO Max and Discovery+ into a single platform.</p><p>On the one hand, HBO MAX itself has a certain user base. It is understood that by the end of 2021, HBO and HBO Max had approximately 73.8 million subscribers, placing them among the top in the highly competitive streaming market. Last October, AT&T predicted that its total number of subscribers would increase to 73 million by the end of the year, so the actual number this time exceeded the company's previous forecast, putting it AT the forefront of the highly competitive streaming market. And in launching including The Sex Lives of College Girls and Sex and The City Following the release of sequels to popular series, HBO Max saw a significant increase in subscriber numbers in the fourth quarter.</p><p>On the other hand, thanks to the successful launch of Discovery+ in 2021, the company's streaming service saw its subscribers surge to 20 million in just three quarters. After the merger, it is believed that the synergy will bring more benefits and more subscriptions to the company.</p><p>While Netflix's subscription growth may not be as outstanding as that of some of its streaming peers, its massive user base has allowed it to barely hold the top spot in the streaming industry. Zhitong Finance APP previously reported that in the relatively strong third quarter, driven by the hit TV series \"Squid Game,\" the number of new users reached 4.38 million, exceeding previous expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4efc8ce5d6ac5bec8417523c62ce4c6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source ：Nielsen research</p><p>In a fiercely competitive market, Netflix faces competition not only from its streaming peers, but also from cable television, broadcast television, and other fields such as video games.</p><p>In fact, according to the survey, in November, the Thanksgiving holiday and increased rest time encouraged consumers to spend 5% more time watching television programs each week. It is worth noting that the increased time away from school gives students the opportunity to spend time on video games (including in the “Other” category) rather than watching content on Disney+.</p><p>Although radio and television market share declined compared to 10 months ago, mainly due to declining viewership ratings for general TV dramas and sitcoms, sports programming remained strong, with viewership rising by 7% even without the World Series.</p><p>In streaming, Disney+ benefited from a nearly 20% increase in viewing time that month, with its market share rising by 1% compared to October.</p><p>There are two main factors driving this growth: increased movie viewing time for the platform's main users (children), and the release of new movies \"Shangqi\" and \"Jungle Boat\" by Disney+ Day that month.</p><p>In addition, Amazon's Prime Video's total market share remained at 2%, but total viewing time on the platform still increased by 8% compared to October.</p><p>Netflix's overall market share remained relatively stable at 7% in October and November, a 1% increase from 6% in September. In the fluid industry, Netflix's biggest challenge comes from Youtube, which is closely following Netflix in terms of overall market share (6%). Of course, HULU is also a competitor not to be underestimated, as its high cost-performance ratio is increasingly favored by audiences.</p><p>In terms of pricing, Netflix has consistently maintained a high position in the industry. In 2022, Netflix announced an increase in its subscription prices in the United States and Canada. In the United States, the basic account fee increased from $8.99 to $9.99 per month, the standard account fee increased from $13.99 to $15.49 per month, and the premium account fee increased from $17.99 to $19.99 per month. In Canada, the standard account fee increased from CAD 14.99 to CAD 16.49, the premium account fee increased by CAD 2 to CAD 20.99, and the basic account fee remained unchanged at CAD 9.99. If competition does begin to erode some of the growth in subscribers, then price increases could increase the risk of customer churn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91fff80dee293a51bff366a7c25e51fe\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The \"trump card\" of original film series is still in hand.</b></p><p>In 2021, Netflix launched a series of exciting programs. According to statistics from Google's most searched TV series list, six of the top 10 most searched TV series are original Netflix series. Among them, the well-known \"Squid Game\" ranked first, while another Netflix series, \"Bridgerton,\" ranked second.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2e1b6e4b7889ecf041401c63a996f1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Google</p><p>The hit TV series \"Squid Game\" became an instant global sensation upon its release. The series was launched at the end of the third quarter and garnered 1.65 billion hours of viewership in the first four weeks of the fourth quarter, setting a new record for Netflix's highest-ever viewership. Meanwhile, the management confirmed that \"Squid Game\" will launch a second season. Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said, \"The Squid Game universe has just begun!\" In addition, with the popularity of Squid Game, Netflix has also launched a series of merchandise related to the series, such as the sportswear worn by the contestants in Squid Game.</p><p>in December, Netflix released a series of new sequels: The Witcher, You, Emily in Paris, Cobra Kai, and Maid.</p><p>In addition, the Spanish TV series \"Banknote House,\" one of the most successful foreign-language TV series in Netflix's history, came to a perfect conclusion in the fourth quarter, having garnered a total of 6.7 billion hours of airtime since its first season aired. Meanwhile, Netflix is intending to expand the \"Banknote House\" universe and will launch a Korean version of \"Banknote House\" later this year.</p><p>In 2022, Netflix will continue to focus on original series and launch a series of new original series. In addition, sequels to popular IP series such as \"Stranger Things\" and \"Bridgeton\" will also be released this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d76dca983c7803be3c4b382f8a194c\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Investment banks that \"seize the opportunity\"</b></p><p>Prior to Netflix's earnings report, nearly 40 institutions gave Netflix an \"overweight\" rating.</p><p>After Netflix released its financial report, KeyBanc was the first to downgrade its rating on Netflix from \"overweight\" to \"hold\". Just before the January earnings report was released, the agency reiterated its \"overweight\" rating on Netflix. Currently, the bank's analysts believe that the stock has almost no growth drivers.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs analysts gave Netflix a \"neutral\" investment rating. The bank's analysts believe that the stock has underperformed over the past 18 months, and the market remains debatable about how the company's growth rate would be under normal post-pandemic conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41651b5eb31afb1cbb7f7b4ad9a4c737\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Institutional ratings and target prices for Netflix over the past three months</p><p>According to relevant statistics, in the past three months, the average price target for Netflix for the next year was $535.83, the highest was $800, and the lowest was $342.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82bf43c7d2250b760d4b4e27041c6ef5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Target price range</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Netflix's management described its performance as \"good business conditions, high user retention rate, decreased user churn rate, and increased viewership.\" However, judging from various data, it is an indisputable fact that Netflix is facing increasingly fierce competition in the streaming market. As the COVID-19 pandemic subsides and people's lives return to normal, the range within which Netflix's user growth will ultimately \"normalize\" is a key factor for all investors and an important factor determining its stock price trend.</p><p>In addition, Netflix did not conduct any share buybacks in the fourth quarter. According to its financial report, Netflix will use some of its cash to acquire Roald Dahl Stories. Whether Netflix can bring new growth to the gaming industry in the new year after it officially announced its entry into the gaming industry last year is another key topic of market attention.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/646079.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa6212aa97fcee15e91e74f631de4bf","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/646079.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1166623001","content_text":"作者： 陈诗烨美东时间1月20日美股盘后，奈飞公布了2021年第四季度财报。财报显示，该公司Q4营收77.09亿美元，市场预期77.08亿美元，上年同期为66.44亿美元，同比增长16%;净利润为6.07亿美元，市场预期3.74亿美元，上年同期为5.42亿美元，同比增长12%;摊薄后每股收益1.33美元，市场预期0.82美元，上年同期1.19美元。此外，该公司2021年全年营收达到约297亿，全年净利润为51亿。全年摊薄后每股收益为11.24美元，超过市场预期值10.7美元。乍看之下，奈飞去年的业绩表现可谓相当亮眼，多项指标都超过市场的预期。然而，在财报公布后，奈飞的盘后股价一路狂泻，暴跌20%。事实上，在近期，奈飞股价都一路承压，特别是进入到2022年以来，该公司股价已下跌超过15%以上。再往上追溯，在2021年，奈飞通过推出《鱿鱼游戏》等一系列热门的影视剧成功收获了一大批“粉丝”，业绩也因此受益得到了一定的提振，股价全年上涨了11%。但考虑到标普500指数在21年全年涨幅达到28%，且以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数全年涨幅也达到23%的背景下，奈飞的股票在2021年里的表现并不“及格”。奈飞股价涨幅不及标普500奈飞股价涨幅不及纳指公司股价下跌的背后，有着各式各样的原因，但对奈飞来说，影响其股价的最主要原因就是订阅用户量。订阅数之殇奈飞在第四季度中，全球流媒体付费订阅用户人数净增828万，市场预期为813万。到2021年末时，奈飞在全球拥有的流媒体付费用户总数达2.2184亿。展望2022年第一季度，奈飞预计流媒体付费用户将增加250万，该数值低于去年同期的400万，且远远低于市场预期的增加626万。在四季度中，虽然奈飞订阅数的净增量打破市场预期的813万，但要知道，在第三季度的财报中，管理层曾乐观预计公司在第四季度的新增用户将达到850万。智通财经APP注意到，订阅增速的下降还反映在用户数增长年率中，在2020年第四季度时，奈飞的订阅用户数增长率达到惊人的21.9%，然而进入到2021年后，增长率已经较早时的两位数下降到个位数。而在管理层给出的第一季度最新指引中，其用户数增长年率仅为8%，较去年同期下降了5.6个百分点。数据来源：奈飞财报曾有观点认为，随着新冠疫情的慢慢退却，人们对于居家娱乐的需求会出现下降，这很可能会对奈飞构成影响。在Q3的财报业绩会议中，奈飞的高管们就曾表示，该公司的订阅者数量已经度过了新冠疫情时的“波动期”，正慢慢恢复到“正常”水平。因此，或许正是新冠疫情将奈飞推到本不属于自己的高度，而随着管理层开始意识到高增长不可持续后，便给出了相对保守的指引。营运利润率恐跌破“3%增长线”市场此前看好奈飞股价的一个重要因素是：尽管考虑到季间会出现波动，但其总体的盈利能力指标会随着时间的推移而不断扩大。第四季度中，奈飞的营运利润率为8%，高于公司的预测指引6.5%，但相较前年同期的14%，仍有不少的差距。2021全年的营运利润率依然达到20.9%，位于公司此前的预期区间--20%以上。虽然在第四季度中，公司整体营收仍保持较快的速度增长，但营运收入仅有6.32亿，较2020年同期下降34%，较第三季度下降了64%。数据来源：奈飞财报应该说，公司管理层早已为此次较低营运利润率打过预防针，在前一次会议上，管理层将营运利润率的降低，归咎于奈飞将积压制作的节目内容放在第四季度中播出，这导致节目内容资产为公司带来了大笔的摊销。而在此次的财报上，奈飞也再次提及了上述的原因。在四季度，内容资产的摊销达到37.4亿美元，是近两年内摊销数额最大的一个季度。数据来源：奈飞财报此外，奈飞预测今年一季度公司的营运收入为17.65亿美元，营运利润率为22.3%。该指引相较去年一季度的表现来说，存在小幅度的下降。同时，公司预计2022年的营运利润率无法实现此前高喊的每年增长3%（即今年营运利润率本应该达22%，但公司给出的指引区间为19-20%）。管理层对于预期利润率的下降，将原因更多地归咎在汇率变动方面，而不是由于收入水平的降低。奈飞营运利润率增长将跌破“3%增长线”？激烈的流媒体竞争单位：百万数据来源：各大公司财报注：此为每季末的订阅用户数，Discovery+在2021年后才发行，因此之前的数据未进入统计过去，对于市场竞争，奈飞通常会表示，公司面临着来自不同领域的竞争对手，但其他公司的流媒体服务并不会对其构成太大威胁。奈飞一直坚持认为，流媒体的观看时长仍未达到该有的水平。但在本季奈飞最新的致股东信中，有一句话却显得特别碍眼：“虽然竞争加剧可能会影响我们的利润率增长...”，有分析认为，这是奈飞承认竞争激烈的有力证明：流媒体竞争正在影响其用户增长。在订阅用户方面，Disney+可谓是异军突起，虽然最新数据要到2月份的财报业绩公布时才会出炉，但从以往的信息来看，截至2021年的第三季度，Disney+已拥有超过 1.18 亿的全球付费用户。该流媒体服务在第三季度中增加了 210 万订阅用户，且在过去 12 个月内增加了 4440 万订阅用户。而对于2024年的用户数量预期，迪士尼也从起初的6000 万至 9000 万区间，提升至2.3 亿至 2.6 亿。除了Disney+外，其他同行的势头也不容小觑。在去年5月，AT&T就已同意将旗下华纳媒体（WarnerMedia）与媒体巨头Discovery Inc.合并，以加强在流媒体市场上的竞争力。有消息指新班底除了有意将Discovery易名为Warner Bros. Discovery 外，更有意将HBO Max 及Discovery+ 合并为同一平台。一方面，HBO MAX本身就有一定的用户基础。据了解，到2021年底，HBO和HBO Max的订阅用户已达到了约7380万，一举跻身于竞争激烈的流媒体市场前列。而在去年10月，AT&T预测用户总数到年底时将提高到7300万，因此此次实际数目超过了该公司此前的预测，使其跻身于竞争激烈的流媒体市场前列。而在推出包括The Sex Lives of College Girls和Sex and The City在内的热门剧集续集后，HBO Max在第四季度的订阅用户数量得到了明显提升。另一方面，受益于Discovery+在2021年的成功推出后，该公司流媒体服务的订阅用户仅用三个季度就猛增至2000万。在合并后，相信在协同作用的推动下，将为公司带来更多的利益以及更多的订阅量。虽然奈飞在订阅增速上可能并不如部分流媒体同行那么出众，但其自身庞大的用户基数，使其目前勉强坐稳流媒体行业的头把交椅。智通财经APP曾报道，在较为出色的第三季度中，受到热播剧集《鱿鱼游戏》的推动，新增用户数一举达到438万，并突破了此前的预期。数据来源：Nielsen research在激烈的市场中，奈飞不仅要面对来自流媒体同行的竞争，也要面对来自有线电视、广播电视和其他领域（如：电子游戏）的竞争。事实上，根据调查，在11月，感恩节假期以及休息时间的增多激励消费者每周多花5%的时间观看电视节目。值得注意的是，离校时间增多让学生有机会把花时间放在电子游戏(包括在“其他”类别中)何观看Disney+上的内容。虽然，广播电视的市场份额较10份月有所下降，这主要是因为一般的电视剧和情景喜剧的收视率下降，但体育节目收视率依然强劲，即使没有世界大赛，收视率也上升了7%。而在流媒体中，Disney+受益于该月有近20%的观影时间增长，市场份额较10月份上涨1%。推动这一增长的主要因素有两个:平台主要用户(小孩、儿童)的观影时间增多，以及Disney+ Day在该月发行了新的电影《尚气》和《丛林奇航》。此外，亚马逊的Prime Video的总市场份额仍维持在2%，但该平台上的总观影时间依然比10月份时增加了8%。而奈飞10月和11月的整体市场份额基本稳定在7%，相较9月时的6%有了1%的提升。在流体行业中，奈飞面临的最大挑战是来自于Youtube，后者在整体的市场份额上（6%）可谓紧咬着奈飞不放。当然HULU也是一位不容小觑的对手，后者高性价比正越来越受到观众的青睐。定价方面，奈飞一路都处于行业内较高的位置。而进入到2022年，奈飞宣布提高其在美国和加拿大地区的订阅价格。其中，美国的基础账户费用从每月8.99美元涨至9.99美元，标准账户费用从每月13.99美元涨至15.49美元，高级账户费用从每月17.99美元涨至19.99美元。加拿大的标准账户费用从14.99加元涨至16.49加元，高级帐户费用上涨2加元至20.99加元，基础账户费用保持不变，为9.99加元。而如果竞争真的开始侵蚀订阅用户的部分增长，那么价格上涨可能会增加客户流失的风险。原创影集这张“王牌”还在手在2021年里，奈飞推出了一系列精彩的节目内容。根据谷歌热门搜索榜单的统计，搜索次数排名前10的电视剧集中，有6部属于奈飞的原创剧集。其中，排名第一的就是广为人知的《鱿鱼游戏》，而奈飞的另一部剧集《布里奇顿》则名列第二。来源：谷歌热门影集《鱿鱼游戏》在推出后立刻火爆全球，该剧集是在第三季度末推出的，在第四季度的前四周，该剧集收获的观看时间达到16.5亿小时，创下奈飞有史以来最高的播放量。同时，管理层证实《鱿鱼游戏》将会推出第二季。奈飞联合首席执行官Ted Sarandos对此表示:“《鱿鱼游戏》宇宙才刚刚开启!”此外，随着《鱿鱼游戏》的热播，奈飞还推出了一系列该剧集的周边产品，如《鱿鱼游戏》中参赛者们身穿的运动服。在12月时，奈飞发布了一系列新的续作影集：《The Witcher》、《You》、《Emily in Paris》、《Cobra Kai》以及《Maid》。另外，作为奈飞史上最成功的外语电视剧之一--西班牙电视剧《纸钞屋》，在第四季度中完美落幕，该电视剧自第一季播出以来共收获67亿小时的播放时间。同时，奈飞正有意扩张《纸钞屋》宇宙，将在今年晚些时候推出韩国版的《纸钞屋》。而在2022年度中，奈飞将继续在原创剧集上下功夫，并推出一系列新的原创剧集系列。此外，“怪奇物语”和“布里奇顿”等热门IP剧集的续作也将在本年度内推出。“见风使舵”的投行们在奈飞财报公布前，有将近40家机构给予奈飞“增持”评级。而在奈飞公布财报后，KeyBanc就率先将奈飞评级由“增持”下调至“持有”。而在一月份财报公布前，该机构才刚刚重申其对奈飞的“增持”评级。目前，该行分析师认为，该股几乎没有什么增长的驱动因素。此外，高盛分析师给予奈飞“中性”的投资评级，该行分析师认为，该股在过去18个月里一直表现欠佳，市场对该公司在疫情后正常情况下的增长率会如何仍有争议。近三个月来机构关于奈飞的评级与目标价据相关统计，在过去3个月内，分析师发布对奈飞未来一年的目标价中，平均值为535.83美元，最高值为800美元，最低值342美元。目标价区间总结奈飞管理层用“业务状况良好，用户留存率很高，用户流失率下降，收视率上升”来评价本次的业绩，但从各类数据来看，奈飞在流媒体市场面临越发激烈的竞争是不争的事实。而随着新冠疫情的消退，人们生活回归正常，奈飞用户增速最终“正常化”在什么区间内，是所有投资者最为侧重的一个点，也是决定其股价走势的重要因素。另外，在四季度中，奈飞并没有回购的操作。根据财报，奈飞将部分现金用作收购Roald Dahl故事公司。而对于奈飞去年正式宣布进军游戏行业，能否在新的一年中为奈飞带来新的增长亦是市场关注的又一重点话题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005799845,"gmtCreate":1642397215617,"gmtModify":1676533707779,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005799845","repostId":"1139332573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139332573","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642377889,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139332573?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-17 08:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Innovative Intelligence begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.51.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139332573","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月17日，创新奇智发布公告，公司拟全球发售4474.44万股股份，其中香港发售股份447.46万股，国际发售股份4026.98万股，另有15%超额配股权；1月17日至1月20日招股；发售价每股发售股","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 17,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02121\">Innovative and ingenious</a>The company announced that it plans to offer 44.7444 million shares globally, including 4.4746 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 40.2698 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option. The IPO will be held from January 17 to January 20; The offer price is HK$26.3-27.3 per offer share, with trading units of 100 shares per lot, and an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.5.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>and China Renaissance Capital as the Joint Sponsors; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 27 January 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59021fcd65ae12ea42bed85365858ba\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot consists of 100 shares, with an entry fee of HK$2,757.51.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 200,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,515,028.61.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33de26f1f6649f119ca5c6b7ecbc6ee\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The company is a rapidly growing enterprise AI solutions provider in China. Based on its research capabilities in the field of deep learning, the company has developed proprietary computer vision and machine learning AI technologies to empower Chinese companies. By combining AI technology with insights into industry scenarios, the company provides full-stack AI products and solutions to help businesses reduce costs, increase efficiency, and optimize decision-making. In less than three years since its inception, the company has established its brand in China's enterprise AI solutions industry. According to Frost & Sullivan, in 2020, the company was the third largest AI technology-driven solutions provider in China's enterprise AI solutions market by revenue, with a 0.3% market share among more than 1,500 market participants. The company focuses on developing and providing AI products and solutions for the manufacturing and financial services industries in China.</p><p>The company has entered into a cornerstone investment agreement, pursuant to which the cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe for or procure their designated entities to subscribe for a total amount of approximately HK$202 million (assuming an offer price of HK$26.80, i.e., the mid-point of the offer price range), subject to certain conditions. The total number of offer shares to be subscribed by the cornerstone investors is 7,552,300 shares. Cornerstone investors include SVF II Zeal, and Laurion Capital Master Fund. Vision Fund, established in Jersey as a Limited partnership, is an investment Fund focused on investing in the global technology sector, with SVF II GP (Jersey) Limited, a company incorporated in Jersey and a wholly-owned subsidiary of SoftBank Group, as its general partner. SVF II Zeal is a special purpose vehicle indirectly majority owned by Vision Fund.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392cfff6d6a51a1e9c24586c74759b83\" tg-width=\"1163\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming an offer price of HK$26.8 per share (i.e., the mid-point of the offer price range), and assuming the over-allotment option has not yet been exercised, the company expects to receive net proceeds of approximately HK$1.0919 billion from the global offering. Approximately 45.0% of the net proceeds will be used to enhance the company's R&D capabilities over the next four years; Approximately 25.0% will be used to enhance the company's commercialization capabilities over the next four years. The company plans to expand its internal sales team and strengthen cooperation with third-party system integrators and business partners (such as joint ventures and strategic alliances). The company will increase its penetration rate in regions, industries, and industry verticals with high demand for its AI solutions; Approximately 10.0% for potential strategic investments and acquisitions within the next five years. The company plans to acquire assets and businesses that will enhance the company's value proposition among its customers through equity investments or asset acquisitions, such as businesses focused on software or SaaS products with differentiated proprietary insights in computer vision and deep learning technologies that can complement the company's AI product portfolio; Approximately 10.0% will be used to strengthen the company's internal systems and upgrade its information infrastructure over the next four years; and approximately 10.0% for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Innovative Intelligence begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.51.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInnovative Intelligence begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.51.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 17,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02121\">Innovative and ingenious</a>The company announced that it plans to offer 44.7444 million shares globally, including 4.4746 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 40.2698 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option. The IPO will be held from January 17 to January 20; The offer price is HK$26.3-27.3 per offer share, with trading units of 100 shares per lot, and an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.5.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>and China Renaissance Capital as the Joint Sponsors; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 27 January 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59021fcd65ae12ea42bed85365858ba\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot consists of 100 shares, with an entry fee of HK$2,757.51.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 200,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,515,028.61.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33de26f1f6649f119ca5c6b7ecbc6ee\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The company is a rapidly growing enterprise AI solutions provider in China. Based on its research capabilities in the field of deep learning, the company has developed proprietary computer vision and machine learning AI technologies to empower Chinese companies. By combining AI technology with insights into industry scenarios, the company provides full-stack AI products and solutions to help businesses reduce costs, increase efficiency, and optimize decision-making. In less than three years since its inception, the company has established its brand in China's enterprise AI solutions industry. According to Frost & Sullivan, in 2020, the company was the third largest AI technology-driven solutions provider in China's enterprise AI solutions market by revenue, with a 0.3% market share among more than 1,500 market participants. The company focuses on developing and providing AI products and solutions for the manufacturing and financial services industries in China.</p><p>The company has entered into a cornerstone investment agreement, pursuant to which the cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe for or procure their designated entities to subscribe for a total amount of approximately HK$202 million (assuming an offer price of HK$26.80, i.e., the mid-point of the offer price range), subject to certain conditions. The total number of offer shares to be subscribed by the cornerstone investors is 7,552,300 shares. Cornerstone investors include SVF II Zeal, and Laurion Capital Master Fund. Vision Fund, established in Jersey as a Limited partnership, is an investment Fund focused on investing in the global technology sector, with SVF II GP (Jersey) Limited, a company incorporated in Jersey and a wholly-owned subsidiary of SoftBank Group, as its general partner. SVF II Zeal is a special purpose vehicle indirectly majority owned by Vision Fund.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392cfff6d6a51a1e9c24586c74759b83\" tg-width=\"1163\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming an offer price of HK$26.8 per share (i.e., the mid-point of the offer price range), and assuming the over-allotment option has not yet been exercised, the company expects to receive net proceeds of approximately HK$1.0919 billion from the global offering. Approximately 45.0% of the net proceeds will be used to enhance the company's R&D capabilities over the next four years; Approximately 25.0% will be used to enhance the company's commercialization capabilities over the next four years. The company plans to expand its internal sales team and strengthen cooperation with third-party system integrators and business partners (such as joint ventures and strategic alliances). The company will increase its penetration rate in regions, industries, and industry verticals with high demand for its AI solutions; Approximately 10.0% for potential strategic investments and acquisitions within the next five years. The company plans to acquire assets and businesses that will enhance the company's value proposition among its customers through equity investments or asset acquisitions, such as businesses focused on software or SaaS products with differentiated proprietary insights in computer vision and deep learning technologies that can complement the company's AI product portfolio; Approximately 10.0% will be used to strengthen the company's internal systems and upgrade its information infrastructure over the next four years; and approximately 10.0% for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"02121":"创新奇智"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139332573","content_text":"1月17日，创新奇智发布公告，公司拟全球发售4474.44万股股份，其中香港发售股份447.46万股，国际发售股份4026.98万股，另有15%超额配股权；1月17日至1月20日招股；发售价每股发售股份26.3-27.3港元，每手买卖单位100股，入场费约2757.5港元；瑞银、中金公司及华兴资本为联席保荐人；预期股份将于2022年1月27日于联交所主板挂牌上市。申购阶梯：每手100股，入场费2757.51港元。乙组门槛为20万股，申购所需资金约5515028.61港元。公司是中国快速发展的企业AI解决方案提供商。基于在深度学习领域的研究能力，公司开发了专有的计算机视觉和机器学习AI技术，赋能中国企业。透过将AI技术与对行业场景的洞察相结合，公司提供全栈式AI产品和解决方案，从而为企业实现降本增效及优化决策。在公司成立以来仅仅不到三年的时间里，公司已在中国企业AI解决方案行业建立公司的品牌。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，于2020年，以收入计，公司为中国企业AI解决方案市场上第三大AI技术驱动型解决方案提供商，在逾1500个市场参与者中有0.3%的市场份额。公司专注于开发并于中国提供制造业及金融服务业开发的AI产品及解决方案。公司已订立基石投资协议，据此，基石投资者已同意在若干条件的规限下认购或促使其指定实体认购总金额约2.02亿港元(假设发售价为26.80港元，即发售价范围中位数)，基石投资者将予认购的发售股份总数为755.23万股。基石投资者包括SVF II Zeal，及Laurion Capital Master Fund。作为有限合伙企业于泽西成立的Vision Fund为一家专注于全球科技行业投资的投资基金，其普通合伙人为SVF II GP (Jersey) Limited(一家于泽西注册成立的公司及软银集团的全资附属公司)。SVF II Zeal为一家由Vision Fund间接拥有多数股权的特殊目的公司。假设发售价每股26.8港元(即发售价范围中位价)，并假设超额配股权尚未行使，公司预计自全球发售收取所得款项净额约10.919亿港元。其中，所得款项净额约45.0%将用于提高公司于未来四年的研发能力；约25.0%用于提升公司于未来四年内的商业化能力。公司计划扩张公司的内部销售团队及加强与第三方系统集成商及业务合作伙伴的合作(例如合营企业及战略联盟)。公司将提升对公司AI解决方案需求旺盛的地区、行业及行业垂直领域的渗透率；约10.0%用于未来五年内的潜在策略投资及收购。公司计划透过股权投资或资产收购来收购将可在公司客户中提升公司价值主张的资产及业务，例如专注于在计算机视觉和深度学习技术方面具有差异化专有见解的以及可与公司AI产品案互补的软件或SaaS产品的业务；约10.0%用于在未来四年内加强公司的内部系统及升级公司的信息基础设施；及约10.0%用作营运资本及一般公司用途。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02121":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9082540616,"gmtCreate":1650587307251,"gmtModify":1676534758209,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082540616","repostId":"2229138329","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011395039,"gmtCreate":1648815371958,"gmtModify":1676534403343,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🙏🙏🙏","listText":"🙏🙏🙏","text":"🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011395039","repostId":"1153595974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153595974","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648813559,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153595974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-01 19:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Xiaomi Group repurchased 7.269 million shares today, costing approximately HK$99.76 million.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153595974","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月1日，小米集团在港交所发布公告称，2022年4月1日回购726.9万股股票，价格为13.56港元-13.82港元，共耗资约9976万港元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 1, Xiaomi Group issued an announcement on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange stating that it repurchased 7.269 million shares on April 1, 2022, at prices ranging from HK$13.56 to HK$13.82, for a total cost of approximately HK$99.76 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da9a0760bb101a3f33c20c9a6b8f8a91\" tg-width=\"1563\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xiaomi Group repurchased 7.269 million shares today, costing approximately HK$99.76 million.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiaomi Group repurchased 7.269 million shares today, costing approximately HK$99.76 million.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-01 19:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 1, Xiaomi Group issued an announcement on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange stating that it repurchased 7.269 million shares on April 1, 2022, at prices ranging from HK$13.56 to HK$13.82, for a total cost of approximately HK$99.76 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da9a0760bb101a3f33c20c9a6b8f8a91\" tg-width=\"1563\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b330c7a5fe2b62c4d008bd67f85ddd","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153595974","content_text":"4月1日，小米集团在港交所发布公告称，2022年4月1日回购726.9万股股票，价格为13.56港元-13.82港元，共耗资约9976万港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070948609,"gmtCreate":1657001784301,"gmtModify":1676535930523,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070948609","repostId":"1105658399","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105658399","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657009124,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105658399?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-05 16:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Grey Market | Zhiyun Health fell 3% after previously receiving a 7.89-fold subscription.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105658399","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"公司拟全球发售1900万股股份，每股发售价30.50港元，每手100股。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>July 5th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>The grey market opened at HK$30.50, down about 3% in early trading. The company plans to offer 19 million shares globally at an offer price of HK$30.50 per share, with 100 shares per lot, resulting in a 50% success rate for one lot. Subscribing to 4 lots guarantees one lot, and the company is expected to list on July 6.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de1050c644ce6fcd3699447bd718d3\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tiger International has compiled relevant data in the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2671e03e3403c0a4411667eccb57e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>allocation results</b></p><p>Group A has 100 shares per lot, with a 50% success rate per lot. If you subscribe to 4 lots, you are guaranteed to win one lot.</p><p>Group B consisted of 200,000 shares and was allocated 22,900 shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7819cd827f21329851c6ee6ece5d4d5\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5aa94fa12f5adcc46760f326ae7570e9\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Company Profile</b></p><p><b>Zhiyun Health provides medical supplies and SaaS products to hospitals and pharmacies, digital marketing services to pharmaceutical companies, and online consultations and prescriptions for patients, all centered around chronic disease management.</b>。 Zhuyun Health expects to continue to generate most of its revenue from the sale of medical supplies to hospitals and pharmacies in the near future.</p><p>Zhiyun Health aims to lead China's digital chronic disease management market by providing solutions for all major players in the healthcare value chain, including hospitals, pharmacies, pharmaceutical companies, patients, and doctors. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, based on the number of SaaS deployments in Chinese hospitals and pharmacies as of December 31, 2021, and the number of online prescriptions filled through Zhiyun Health's services in 2021,<b>Zhiyun Health is China's largest provider of digital chronic disease management solutions.</b>。</p><p>Zhiyun Health provides in-hospital solutions, pharmacy solutions, and personal chronic disease management solutions.<b>In-Hospital Solutions</b>Including sales of medical devices, consumables and pharmaceuticals, hospital SaaS and digital marketing services for pharmaceutical companies, mainly selling medical devices and consumables.<b>Pharmacy Solutions</b>Including the sale of medical devices, consumables, pharmaceuticals and other types of goods, as well as Zhiyun Health's pharmacy SaaS, the medical supplies sold are mainly related to chronic disease management, and the pharmacy SaaS products enable pharmacies to have the ability to prescribe and dispense prescriptions online.<b>Personal Chronic Disease</b>Connect doctors with patients to achieve out-of-hospital consultations and prescriptions for chronic disease management.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da6982c8e85997d829bdce5eb7e88d7d\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of finance, the company's total revenue was RMB 524 million, RMB 839 million, and RMB 1.757 billion in 2019, 2021, and 2021, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 83.02%. The net losses for the same period were RMB 569 million, RMB 2.751 billion, and RMB 4.021 billion, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b796ddd650563bde7d5ed115446a17f2\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of industry, driven by favorable policies and continuous technological advancements, different sectors of the healthcare industry are experiencing a clear trend of accelerated digitalization, which has led to the rapid growth of China's digital health and wellness market. It is estimated that the size of the entire digital health and wellness market in China will reach RMB1,511.6 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 37.5% from 2020 to 2025, and further reach RMB4,165.2 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 22.5% from 2025 to 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e88e1fece44c5923d331f9fe58c661\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grey Market | Zhiyun Health fell 3% after previously receiving a 7.89-fold subscription.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrey Market | Zhiyun Health fell 3% after previously receiving a 7.89-fold subscription.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-05 16:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>July 5th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09955\">Zhiyun Health</a>The grey market opened at HK$30.50, down about 3% in early trading. The company plans to offer 19 million shares globally at an offer price of HK$30.50 per share, with 100 shares per lot, resulting in a 50% success rate for one lot. Subscribing to 4 lots guarantees one lot, and the company is expected to list on July 6.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93de1050c644ce6fcd3699447bd718d3\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tiger International has compiled relevant data in the following table:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2671e03e3403c0a4411667eccb57e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>allocation results</b></p><p>Group A has 100 shares per lot, with a 50% success rate per lot. If you subscribe to 4 lots, you are guaranteed to win one lot.</p><p>Group B consisted of 200,000 shares and was allocated 22,900 shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7819cd827f21329851c6ee6ece5d4d5\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5aa94fa12f5adcc46760f326ae7570e9\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Company Profile</b></p><p><b>Zhiyun Health provides medical supplies and SaaS products to hospitals and pharmacies, digital marketing services to pharmaceutical companies, and online consultations and prescriptions for patients, all centered around chronic disease management.</b>。 Zhuyun Health expects to continue to generate most of its revenue from the sale of medical supplies to hospitals and pharmacies in the near future.</p><p>Zhiyun Health aims to lead China's digital chronic disease management market by providing solutions for all major players in the healthcare value chain, including hospitals, pharmacies, pharmaceutical companies, patients, and doctors. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, based on the number of SaaS deployments in Chinese hospitals and pharmacies as of December 31, 2021, and the number of online prescriptions filled through Zhiyun Health's services in 2021,<b>Zhiyun Health is China's largest provider of digital chronic disease management solutions.</b>。</p><p>Zhiyun Health provides in-hospital solutions, pharmacy solutions, and personal chronic disease management solutions.<b>In-Hospital Solutions</b>Including sales of medical devices, consumables and pharmaceuticals, hospital SaaS and digital marketing services for pharmaceutical companies, mainly selling medical devices and consumables.<b>Pharmacy Solutions</b>Including the sale of medical devices, consumables, pharmaceuticals and other types of goods, as well as Zhiyun Health's pharmacy SaaS, the medical supplies sold are mainly related to chronic disease management, and the pharmacy SaaS products enable pharmacies to have the ability to prescribe and dispense prescriptions online.<b>Personal Chronic Disease</b>Connect doctors with patients to achieve out-of-hospital consultations and prescriptions for chronic disease management.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da6982c8e85997d829bdce5eb7e88d7d\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of finance, the company's total revenue was RMB 524 million, RMB 839 million, and RMB 1.757 billion in 2019, 2021, and 2021, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 83.02%. The net losses for the same period were RMB 569 million, RMB 2.751 billion, and RMB 4.021 billion, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b796ddd650563bde7d5ed115446a17f2\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of industry, driven by favorable policies and continuous technological advancements, different sectors of the healthcare industry are experiencing a clear trend of accelerated digitalization, which has led to the rapid growth of China's digital health and wellness market. It is estimated that the size of the entire digital health and wellness market in China will reach RMB1,511.6 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 37.5% from 2020 to 2025, and further reach RMB4,165.2 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 22.5% from 2025 to 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e88e1fece44c5923d331f9fe58c661\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f6d7d401e38bc1d5b9029d5bfb77710","relate_stocks":{"09955":"智云健康"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105658399","content_text":"7月5日，智云健康暗盘开盘报30.50港元，盘初跌约3%。公司拟全球发售1900万股股份，每股发售价30.50港元，每手100股，一手中签率50%，认购4手稳获一手，预期7月6日挂牌上市。老虎国际整理相关数据如下表：分配结果甲组每手100股，一手中签率50% ，认购4手稳中一手。乙组头为200000股，获配22900股股份。公司简介智云健康为医院和药店提供医疗用品和SaaS产品，为制药公司提供数字营销服务，为患者提供在线问诊和处方开具，所有均围绕著慢病管理。智云健康预期在不久的将来继续通过向医院和药店销售医疗用品产生大部分收入。智云健康通过为医疗价值链上的所有主要参与者（包括医院、药店、制药公司、患者和医生）提供解决方案，期望引领中国数字化慢病管理市场。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，基于截至2021年12月31日止的中国医院和药店SaaS部署量以及截至2021年透过智云健康的服务开出的在线处方量，智云健康是中国最大的数字化慢病管理解决方案提供商。智云健康提供院内解决方案、药店解决方案及个人慢病管理解决方案。院内解决方案包括销售医疗器械、耗材及药品、医院SaaS及面向制药公司的数字营销服务，主要销售医疗器械及耗材。药店解决方案包括销售医疗器械、耗材、药品及其他类别商品以及智云健康的药店SaaS，出售的医疗用品主要与慢病管理有关，而药店SaaS产品使药店拥有线上开方和配药的能力。个人慢病管理解决方案将医生与患者联系起来，为慢病管理实现院外问诊和处方开具。财务方面，公司2019 – 2021年的总收入分别为5.24亿、8.39亿、17.57亿人民币，2019 – 2021年的复合增长率达83.02%；同期净亏损分别为5.69亿、27.51亿、40.21亿人民币。行业方面，在有利的政策和持续的技术进步的推动下，医疗卫生行业的不同部门都有明显的加速数字化趋势，这导致了中国数字化健康和保健市场的快速增长。预计2025年中国整个数字化健康和保健市场的规模将达到人民币15,116亿元，从2020年到2025年的年复合增长率为37.5%，并在2030年进一步达到人民币41,652亿元，从2025年到2030年的年复合增长率为22.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09955":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011396508,"gmtCreate":1648815164687,"gmtModify":1676534403173,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/A17U.SI\">$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;👍👍👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/A17U.SI\">$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;👍👍👍","text":"$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$ 👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011396508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032244460,"gmtCreate":1647391954892,"gmtModify":1676534223763,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032244460","repostId":"1136839858","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090972835,"gmtCreate":1643072950047,"gmtModify":1676533771391,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090972835","repostId":"1130960069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130960069","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643068822,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130960069?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-25 08:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: US stocks experienced a \"terrifying night\"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130960069","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美股三大股指盘中暴跌后尾盘强势转涨，纳指涨0.63%；美油跌2.15%；②俄乌剑拔弩张，卢布一度跌超2%，欧股全线下挫；③俄罗斯货币卢布汇率波动指标升至2020年11月以来的最高水平，俄股市一","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① After a sharp intraday drop, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded strongly in late trading, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.63%; US crude oil fell 2.15%; ② Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, with the ruble falling by more than 2% at one point and European stocks declining across the board; ③ The Russian ruble exchange rate volatility indicator rose to its highest level since November 2020, and the Russian stock market once plummeted by more than 10%. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks experienced a \"terrifying night\"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.</p><p>On Monday, January 24, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down nearly 400 points, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline, the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline, and the Nasdaq Composite fell another 2%. The index's decline widened rapidly, with the S&P 500 falling 10% from its intraday high three weeks ago, entering a technical correction zone.</p><p>Less than two and a half hours after the market opened, panic selling intensified, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, which are dominated by technology stocks, both falling by more than 4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline widening to 950 points, the S&P 500 down 3.4%, and WTI crude oil down more than 3%.</p><p>Nearly three hours after the market opened, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index fell by as much as 20% from its historical close in November last year, entering a technical bear market. The VIX, the \"fear index,\" reached a high of nearly 39, the highest level in more than a year since November 2020. The 35% increase was the largest increase since the Omeprone news broke out in November last year.</p><p>Two hours before the close, U.S. stocks had narrowed their losses to half that of midday, with the S&P 500 down 1.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 430 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.35%. In the first half hour of trading, the declines of the three major stock indices narrowed to less than 1%, with small-cap stocks taking the lead in turning positive. In the first 25 minutes of trading, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turned positive, with the Russell 2000 leading the gains, rising more than 1.5%.</p><p>At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29%, the S&P 500 rose 0.28%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.63%, marking the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that the Nasdaq had fallen more than 4% intraday before closing higher.</p><p>Major tech stocks showed mixed performance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 0.49%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 0.11%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>It rose 0.22%, Yama rose 1.33%, and Meta rose 1.83%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It fell 2.6%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles fell by more than 9%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday, with new energy vehicle stocks plummeting and Nio Motor Company falling more than 9%.</p><p>Alibaba closed down more than 2%, Baidu down nearly 5%, Tencent ADR down 0.8%, Pinduoduo down more than 3%, Bilibili down 2.5%, and iQiyi down 0.5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Autohome</a>It fell more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Qutoutiao</a>It fell nearly 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The stock price fell by more than 2%, while Wuxin Technology fell by nearly 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>It fell by more than 1%.</p><p>Among new energy vehicle stocks, Nio Motor Company fell by more than 9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p>3. European stocks plunged across the board on Monday, marking their biggest single-day drop in 19 months.</p><p>European stocks plunged on Monday, hitting their worst single-day trading record in three months. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell to 45,640 points, a drop of 3.8%. This is the worst single-day drop since June 11, 2020.</p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 3.80%, France's CAC 40 index fell 3.97%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 2.63%.</p><p>A senior economist at Exante stated, \"Before this week's poor start, risk assets had just experienced a rather bearish week. Investors...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The fourth-quarter earnings results were unsatisfactory, and on a broader level, concerns about the Federal Reserve's tightening policies and high global inflation also severely dampened risk appetite.</p><p>4. International crude oil prices closed lower on Monday, with WTI crude futures down 2.15%.</p><p>International crude oil prices closed lower on Monday, with WTI March crude futures falling $1.83, or 2.15%, to $83.31 a barrel.</p><p>Brent crude oil futures for March delivery closed down $1.62, or 1.84%, at $86.27 a barrel.</p><p>The sell-off was driven by broader volatility in financial markets, with the strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies also impacting oil prices, as higher oil prices make them less attractive to overseas buyers.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed 0.54% higher on Monday, with a sharp drop in US stocks providing support for gold prices.</p><p>Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, said: \"Gold is clearly favored as a portfolio insurance. Rising interest rates usually have a negative impact on gold, but since it is politically impossible to bail out stock investors with cheap money, the risk of the Fed rate hike too late has now become even worse.\"</p><p>February gold futures, the most actively traded contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose $9.90 from the previous trading day on the 24th to settle at $1,841.70 an ounce, a gain of 0.54%.</p><p>6. Bitcoin stopped falling and rebounded, with risk assets rebounding to help it reverse its five-day losing streak.</p><p>The late-day rebound in cryptocurrencies mirrored the rise in the US stock market. The 40-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has reached nearly 0.66, the highest level since data compilation began in 2010. A similar correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is also at a record level.</p><p>Cryptocurrencies have faced widespread selling pressure in recent weeks, with traders pointing to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a decline in tech stocks prompting investors to flee risky assets. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $69,000 last November.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Business activity in the United States has almost come to a standstill due to the impact of the Omicron outbreak.</p><p>IHS<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Data released on Monday showed that the preliminary reading of the composite purchasing managers' index for December fell 6.2 points to an 18-month low of 50.8. Data above 50 suggest expansion.</p><p>Service sector indicators also fell to their lowest level since July 2020, with labor shortages and employee absenteeism putting pressure on service sector activity.</p><p>The decline in the manufacturing index was relatively moderate, but it remained at a new low since October 2020, with supply chains still disrupted and output constrained.</p><p>“Output has been affected by Omicron far more than demand, and the strong growth in new business inflows suggests that growth will resume once restrictions are eased,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.</p><p>2. US food prices surge repeatedly, prompting major corporations to clash with the Biden administration.</p><p>Food companies stated that the price increase was in line with market principles, and that extreme weather and the disruption of the supply chain caused by the pandemic increased production costs and reduced food supply. At the same time, demand is increasing both within and outside the United States. However, the Biden administration and some senators believe that industry monopolies are the main source of price increases, and that a few giant companies have the ability to raise prices and profit from inflation.</p><p>3. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are high, and the financial markets are on edge! The ruble once fell by more than 2%, and European stocks declined across the board.</p><p>Government bonds, currencies, and stock markets in Russia and Ukraine have already been hit, and an escalation of the situation could trigger a hasty evacuation of investors.</p><p>Although the United States and Europe have not yet discussed sanctions on Russian commodities, the conflict could destabilize natural gas and wheat futures prices and even threaten the short-term performance of European stocks.</p><p>Recently, as some investors turn to seeking the safest assets, their interest in investing in US Treasury bonds has surged.</p><p>EU foreign ministers will discuss Ukraine with US Secretary of State Blinken on Monday, and some analysts believe that volatility in financial markets may increase during this period.</p><p>4. WHO: The worst phase of the epidemic is expected to end this year</p><p>WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that humans will coexist with the novel coronavirus for the foreseeable future, and more variant strains are likely to emerge under the current circumstances. If countries can fully utilize all strategies and tools, the worst phase of the pandemic can end this year, and the COVID-19 pandemic will no longer be a global public health emergency.</p><p>5. Germany's electrical industry sales are expected to exceed 200 billion euros for the first time in 2021.</p><p>Between January and November 2021, Germany's electronics and electrical industry saw production grow by nearly 9%, while sales increased by nearly 10% year-on-year. The association predicts that the industry's overall sales will exceed 200 billion euros for the first time in 2021.</p><p>The association's president, Gunther Kegel, said that almost all electrical sub-sectors have achieved \"positive development\" thanks to increased exports to other countries. Among them, the battery industry grew by nearly 40%.</p><p>6. German Chancellor: Will promote a new round of COVID-19 vaccination campaign</p><p>At a press conference after the meeting, German Chancellor Scholz said that Germany needs to adhere to its current epidemic prevention measures while vigorously promoting a new round of vaccination campaigns.</p><p>Scholz stated that although Germany has made some progress in vaccination, it is far from enough.</p><p>7. Traders predict that the decline in US stocks will not cause the Federal Reserve to pause tightening; March rate hike is imminent.</p><p>Historically, sharp declines in the U.S. stock market and other risky assets have temporarily halted policymakers, but this time, even with technology stocks leading the stock market crash, bets on rate hike this year remain unwavering.</p><p>The swap market shows that the Federal Reserve expects rate hike of 25 basis points in March, and the market expects rate hike to be close to a full percentage point for the whole of 2022.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206888889\" target=\"_blank\">Meta launches next-generation artificial intelligence supercomputer to support infrastructure development in metaverse.</a></p><p>Formerly known as Facebook<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>Inc. launched its \"AI Research SuperCluster\" (hereinafter referred to as \"RSC\") on its official website.</p><p>Meta believes that the RSC is currently one of the fastest artificial intelligence (AI) supercomputers in the world, and \"once fully completed by mid-2022, it will officially become the world's fastest AI supercomputer.\"</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206002788\" target=\"_blank\">Three U.S. states and Washington, D.C. are suing Google for improperly obtaining user location data.</a></p><p>Washington State Attorney General Karl Racine said in a statement, \"Google misled consumers into believing that changing their account and device settings would protect their privacy and limit (Google's) access to their personal data.\" The attorneys general of Texas, Washington, and Indiana will also reportedly file lawsuits in their respective states.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206002095\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon will open its first physical fashion store, with intelligent algorithms and a magic wardrobe as highlights.</a></p><p>E-commerce giant Amazon is once again extending its reach into the physical industry. On January 20, it announced that it would open its first fashion store and incorporate technological elements into the store, including algorithmic recommendations and a \"magic wardrobe,\" but has not yet announced the specific opening date.</p><p>The new store, reportedly named \"Amazon Style,\" will open in The Americana at Brand mall in The Greater Los Angeles area, alongside Nordstrom department store,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">Urban Outfitters</a>, J. Stores such as Crew and H&M are located nearby. According to Simoina Vasen, general manager of Amazon Wind, Amazon \"has no need to be involved in brick-and-mortar retail\" without significantly improving the customer shopping experience.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2205004571\" target=\"_blank\">Has Merck lost another game? It is rumored that the EMA will give priority to approving Pfizer's oral COVID-19 drug.</a></p><p>Last December, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) provided guidance to member states on how to use these two drugs as emergency treatments, while conducting a rolling review, allowing member states to use them before official EU approval. A few EU countries, such as Italy, Germany and Belgium, purchased Paxlovid and Molnupiravir.</p><p>Sources say that although Merck submitted its application earlier than Pfizer, they submitted their final efficacy data later, so European regulators took more time to review the final data.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2205009377\" target=\"_blank\">Nio establishes nearly $8 million insurance brokerage firm, continuing Friday's pre-market decline.</a></p><p>NIO is not the first company to establish an insurance brokerage firm; as early as August 2020...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) established a company of the same nature, which is wholly owned by Tesla Motors Hong Kong Limited.</p><p>In addition, on December 27, 2021, the Shanghai Insurance Exchange launched a new energy vehicle insurance trading platform (hereinafter referred to as the trading platform) and listed the first batch of new energy vehicle-specific insurance products from 12 property insurance companies, including PICC Property & Casualty Insurance, Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance, and CPIC Property & Casualty Insurance, to provide support for the implementation of new energy vehicle-specific insurance products.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206788598\" target=\"_blank\">IBM's fourth-quarter revenue saw its biggest increase in a decade, surging as much as 7% in after-hours trading.</a></p><p>After the US stock market closed Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company released its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2021. Financial reports showed that the company's high revenue and earnings per share both exceeded analysts' expectations, and IBM's US stock price rose from 2.95% to 6.99% in after-hours trading. Since the beginning of the year, IBM's stock price has fallen by 5.31%, outperforming the 8.71% decline in the S&P Global 100 Index during the same period.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: US stocks experienced a \"terrifying night\"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: US stocks experienced a \"terrifying night\"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-25 08:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① After a sharp intraday drop, the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded strongly in late trading, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.63%; US crude oil fell 2.15%; ② Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, with the ruble falling by more than 2% at one point and European stocks declining across the board; ③ The Russian ruble exchange rate volatility indicator rose to its highest level since November 2020, and the Russian stock market once plummeted by more than 10%. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks experienced a \"terrifying night\"! The Nasdaq recovered its 4.9% decline.</p><p>On Monday, January 24, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down nearly 400 points, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline, the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline, and the Nasdaq Composite fell another 2%. The index's decline widened rapidly, with the S&P 500 falling 10% from its intraday high three weeks ago, entering a technical correction zone.</p><p>Less than two and a half hours after the market opened, panic selling intensified, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, which are dominated by technology stocks, both falling by more than 4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline widening to 950 points, the S&P 500 down 3.4%, and WTI crude oil down more than 3%.</p><p>Nearly three hours after the market opened, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index fell by as much as 20% from its historical close in November last year, entering a technical bear market. The VIX, the \"fear index,\" reached a high of nearly 39, the highest level in more than a year since November 2020. The 35% increase was the largest increase since the Omeprone news broke out in November last year.</p><p>Two hours before the close, U.S. stocks had narrowed their losses to half that of midday, with the S&P 500 down 1.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 430 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.35%. In the first half hour of trading, the declines of the three major stock indices narrowed to less than 1%, with small-cap stocks taking the lead in turning positive. In the first 25 minutes of trading, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turned positive, with the Russell 2000 leading the gains, rising more than 1.5%.</p><p>At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29%, the S&P 500 rose 0.28%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.63%, marking the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that the Nasdaq had fallen more than 4% intraday before closing higher.</p><p>Major tech stocks showed mixed performance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 0.49%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 0.11%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>It rose 0.22%, Yama rose 1.33%, and Meta rose 1.83%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It fell 2.6%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles fell by more than 9%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday, with new energy vehicle stocks plummeting and Nio Motor Company falling more than 9%.</p><p>Alibaba closed down more than 2%, Baidu down nearly 5%, Tencent ADR down 0.8%, Pinduoduo down more than 3%, Bilibili down 2.5%, and iQiyi down 0.5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Autohome</a>It fell more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Qutoutiao</a>It fell nearly 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The stock price fell by more than 2%, while Wuxin Technology fell by nearly 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>It fell by more than 1%.</p><p>Among new energy vehicle stocks, Nio Motor Company fell by more than 9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p>3. European stocks plunged across the board on Monday, marking their biggest single-day drop in 19 months.</p><p>European stocks plunged on Monday, hitting their worst single-day trading record in three months. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell to 45,640 points, a drop of 3.8%. This is the worst single-day drop since June 11, 2020.</p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 3.80%, France's CAC 40 index fell 3.97%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 2.63%.</p><p>A senior economist at Exante stated, \"Before this week's poor start, risk assets had just experienced a rather bearish week. Investors...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The fourth-quarter earnings results were unsatisfactory, and on a broader level, concerns about the Federal Reserve's tightening policies and high global inflation also severely dampened risk appetite.</p><p>4. International crude oil prices closed lower on Monday, with WTI crude futures down 2.15%.</p><p>International crude oil prices closed lower on Monday, with WTI March crude futures falling $1.83, or 2.15%, to $83.31 a barrel.</p><p>Brent crude oil futures for March delivery closed down $1.62, or 1.84%, at $86.27 a barrel.</p><p>The sell-off was driven by broader volatility in financial markets, with the strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies also impacting oil prices, as higher oil prices make them less attractive to overseas buyers.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed 0.54% higher on Monday, with a sharp drop in US stocks providing support for gold prices.</p><p>Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, said: \"Gold is clearly favored as a portfolio insurance. Rising interest rates usually have a negative impact on gold, but since it is politically impossible to bail out stock investors with cheap money, the risk of the Fed rate hike too late has now become even worse.\"</p><p>February gold futures, the most actively traded contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose $9.90 from the previous trading day on the 24th to settle at $1,841.70 an ounce, a gain of 0.54%.</p><p>6. Bitcoin stopped falling and rebounded, with risk assets rebounding to help it reverse its five-day losing streak.</p><p>The late-day rebound in cryptocurrencies mirrored the rise in the US stock market. The 40-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has reached nearly 0.66, the highest level since data compilation began in 2010. A similar correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is also at a record level.</p><p>Cryptocurrencies have faced widespread selling pressure in recent weeks, with traders pointing to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a decline in tech stocks prompting investors to flee risky assets. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $69,000 last November.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Business activity in the United States has almost come to a standstill due to the impact of the Omicron outbreak.</p><p>IHS<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Data released on Monday showed that the preliminary reading of the composite purchasing managers' index for December fell 6.2 points to an 18-month low of 50.8. Data above 50 suggest expansion.</p><p>Service sector indicators also fell to their lowest level since July 2020, with labor shortages and employee absenteeism putting pressure on service sector activity.</p><p>The decline in the manufacturing index was relatively moderate, but it remained at a new low since October 2020, with supply chains still disrupted and output constrained.</p><p>“Output has been affected by Omicron far more than demand, and the strong growth in new business inflows suggests that growth will resume once restrictions are eased,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.</p><p>2. US food prices surge repeatedly, prompting major corporations to clash with the Biden administration.</p><p>Food companies stated that the price increase was in line with market principles, and that extreme weather and the disruption of the supply chain caused by the pandemic increased production costs and reduced food supply. At the same time, demand is increasing both within and outside the United States. However, the Biden administration and some senators believe that industry monopolies are the main source of price increases, and that a few giant companies have the ability to raise prices and profit from inflation.</p><p>3. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are high, and the financial markets are on edge! The ruble once fell by more than 2%, and European stocks declined across the board.</p><p>Government bonds, currencies, and stock markets in Russia and Ukraine have already been hit, and an escalation of the situation could trigger a hasty evacuation of investors.</p><p>Although the United States and Europe have not yet discussed sanctions on Russian commodities, the conflict could destabilize natural gas and wheat futures prices and even threaten the short-term performance of European stocks.</p><p>Recently, as some investors turn to seeking the safest assets, their interest in investing in US Treasury bonds has surged.</p><p>EU foreign ministers will discuss Ukraine with US Secretary of State Blinken on Monday, and some analysts believe that volatility in financial markets may increase during this period.</p><p>4. WHO: The worst phase of the epidemic is expected to end this year</p><p>WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that humans will coexist with the novel coronavirus for the foreseeable future, and more variant strains are likely to emerge under the current circumstances. If countries can fully utilize all strategies and tools, the worst phase of the pandemic can end this year, and the COVID-19 pandemic will no longer be a global public health emergency.</p><p>5. Germany's electrical industry sales are expected to exceed 200 billion euros for the first time in 2021.</p><p>Between January and November 2021, Germany's electronics and electrical industry saw production grow by nearly 9%, while sales increased by nearly 10% year-on-year. The association predicts that the industry's overall sales will exceed 200 billion euros for the first time in 2021.</p><p>The association's president, Gunther Kegel, said that almost all electrical sub-sectors have achieved \"positive development\" thanks to increased exports to other countries. Among them, the battery industry grew by nearly 40%.</p><p>6. German Chancellor: Will promote a new round of COVID-19 vaccination campaign</p><p>At a press conference after the meeting, German Chancellor Scholz said that Germany needs to adhere to its current epidemic prevention measures while vigorously promoting a new round of vaccination campaigns.</p><p>Scholz stated that although Germany has made some progress in vaccination, it is far from enough.</p><p>7. Traders predict that the decline in US stocks will not cause the Federal Reserve to pause tightening; March rate hike is imminent.</p><p>Historically, sharp declines in the U.S. stock market and other risky assets have temporarily halted policymakers, but this time, even with technology stocks leading the stock market crash, bets on rate hike this year remain unwavering.</p><p>The swap market shows that the Federal Reserve expects rate hike of 25 basis points in March, and the market expects rate hike to be close to a full percentage point for the whole of 2022.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206888889\" target=\"_blank\">Meta launches next-generation artificial intelligence supercomputer to support infrastructure development in metaverse.</a></p><p>Formerly known as Facebook<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>Inc. launched its \"AI Research SuperCluster\" (hereinafter referred to as \"RSC\") on its official website.</p><p>Meta believes that the RSC is currently one of the fastest artificial intelligence (AI) supercomputers in the world, and \"once fully completed by mid-2022, it will officially become the world's fastest AI supercomputer.\"</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206002788\" target=\"_blank\">Three U.S. states and Washington, D.C. are suing Google for improperly obtaining user location data.</a></p><p>Washington State Attorney General Karl Racine said in a statement, \"Google misled consumers into believing that changing their account and device settings would protect their privacy and limit (Google's) access to their personal data.\" The attorneys general of Texas, Washington, and Indiana will also reportedly file lawsuits in their respective states.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206002095\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon will open its first physical fashion store, with intelligent algorithms and a magic wardrobe as highlights.</a></p><p>E-commerce giant Amazon is once again extending its reach into the physical industry. On January 20, it announced that it would open its first fashion store and incorporate technological elements into the store, including algorithmic recommendations and a \"magic wardrobe,\" but has not yet announced the specific opening date.</p><p>The new store, reportedly named \"Amazon Style,\" will open in The Americana at Brand mall in The Greater Los Angeles area, alongside Nordstrom department store,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/URBN\">Urban Outfitters</a>, J. Stores such as Crew and H&M are located nearby. According to Simoina Vasen, general manager of Amazon Wind, Amazon \"has no need to be involved in brick-and-mortar retail\" without significantly improving the customer shopping experience.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2205004571\" target=\"_blank\">Has Merck lost another game? It is rumored that the EMA will give priority to approving Pfizer's oral COVID-19 drug.</a></p><p>Last December, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) provided guidance to member states on how to use these two drugs as emergency treatments, while conducting a rolling review, allowing member states to use them before official EU approval. A few EU countries, such as Italy, Germany and Belgium, purchased Paxlovid and Molnupiravir.</p><p>Sources say that although Merck submitted its application earlier than Pfizer, they submitted their final efficacy data later, so European regulators took more time to review the final data.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2205009377\" target=\"_blank\">Nio establishes nearly $8 million insurance brokerage firm, continuing Friday's pre-market decline.</a></p><p>NIO is not the first company to establish an insurance brokerage firm; as early as August 2020...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) established a company of the same nature, which is wholly owned by Tesla Motors Hong Kong Limited.</p><p>In addition, on December 27, 2021, the Shanghai Insurance Exchange launched a new energy vehicle insurance trading platform (hereinafter referred to as the trading platform) and listed the first batch of new energy vehicle-specific insurance products from 12 property insurance companies, including PICC Property & Casualty Insurance, Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance, and CPIC Property & Casualty Insurance, to provide support for the implementation of new energy vehicle-specific insurance products.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2206788598\" target=\"_blank\">IBM's fourth-quarter revenue saw its biggest increase in a decade, surging as much as 7% in after-hours trading.</a></p><p>After the US stock market closed Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company released its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2021. Financial reports showed that the company's high revenue and earnings per share both exceeded analysts' expectations, and IBM's US stock price rose from 2.95% to 6.99% in after-hours trading. Since the beginning of the year, IBM's stock price has fallen by 5.31%, outperforming the 8.71% decline in the S&P Global 100 Index during the same period.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130960069","content_text":"摘要：①美股三大股指盘中暴跌后尾盘强势转涨，纳指涨0.63%；美油跌2.15%；②俄乌剑拔弩张，卢布一度跌超2%，欧股全线下挫；③俄罗斯货币卢布汇率波动指标升至2020年11月以来的最高水平，俄股市一度大跌逾10%。海外市场1、美股上演“惊魂一夜”！纳指收复4.9%跌幅1月24日周一，道指开盘跌近400点且连跌七日，标普500指数跌1.6%且连跌五日，纳指再跌2%。指数跌幅迅速扩大，标普大盘从三周前所创盘中新高回落10%，进入技术性回调区间。开盘不到两个半小时，慌性抛售加剧，科技股居多的纳指和纳指100均跌超4%，道指跌幅扩大至950点，标普跌3.4%，美油WTI跌超3%。开盘快三小时，道指跌超1000点，罗素2000小盘股指数较去年11月的收盘历史最高回落20%，进入技术位熊市。“恐慌指数”VIX最高上逼39，创2020年11月以来的一年多最高，涨35%为去年11月奥密克戎消息前爆发以来最大涨幅。收盘前两个小时，美股跌幅大幅收窄至午盘时的一半，标普跌1.4%，道指跌430点，纳指跌1.35%。收盘前半小时，三大股指跌幅收窄至不足1%，小盘股率先转涨。收盘前25分钟，纳指和费城半导体指数转涨，罗素2000涨超1.5%领跑。截至收盘，道指收涨0.29%，标普500指数涨0.28%，纳指涨0.63%，自2008年金融危机以来，纳指首次盘中跌超4%后转而收涨。大型科技股涨跌不一，苹果跌0.49%，微软涨0.11%，谷歌A涨0.22%，亚马涨1.33%，Meta涨1.83%，奈飞跌2.6%。2、热门中概股周一收盘多数走低 蔚来汽车跌超9%热门中概股周一收盘多数走低，新能源汽车股大跌，蔚来汽车跌超9%。阿里巴巴收跌超2%，百度跌近5%，腾讯ADR跌0.8%，拼多多跌超3%，B站跌2.5%，爱奇艺跌0.5%。途牛、汽车之家跌超10%，新东方跌超5%，百度、趣头条跌近5%，拼多多、贝壳、跌超3%，哔哩哔哩、京东、跌超2%，雾芯科技跌近2%，网易、唯品会跌超1%。新能源汽车股中，蔚来汽车跌超9%，小鹏汽车跌超4%，理想汽车跌超2%。3、欧股周一全线暴跌 创19个月以来最大单日跌幅欧洲股市周一暴跌，创三个月来最糟糕的单日交易记录。斯托克欧洲600指数下跌至45640点，跌幅3.8%。这是自2020年6月11日以来最严重的单日跌幅。德国DAX指数下跌3.80%，法国CAC 40指数下跌3.97%，英国FTSE 100指数下跌2.63%。Exante 的高级经济学家表示：“本周开局不佳之前，风险资产刚刚经历了相当熊市的一周。投资者对美国银行第四季度的盈利结果并不满意，而在更宏观的层面上，对美联储收紧政策和全球高通胀水平的担忧也严重打压了风险偏好。”4、国际原油周一收跌 WTI原油期货跌2.15%国际原油周一收跌，WTI 3月原油期货收跌1.83美元，跌幅2.15%，报83.31美元/桶。布伦特3月原油期货收跌1.62美元，跌幅1.84%，报86.27美元/桶。此次抛售是由金融市场更广泛的波动推动的，美元兑其他货币走强，也对油价造成了影响，因为油价变高，对海外买家的吸引力也会降低。5、黄金期货周一收高0.54% 美股大跌令金价获得支撑BullionVault研究主管Adrian Ash表示：“黄金作为投资组合的保险显然受到青睐。利率上升通常会给黄金带来不利影响，但由于政治上不可能用廉价资金拯救股票投资者，因此美联储加息太晚的风险现在变得更糟了”。纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2月黄金期价24日比前一交易日上涨9.9美元，收于每盎司1841.7美元，涨幅为0.54%。6、比特币止跌回升 风险资产反弹帮助其扭转连续五天的跌势加密货币尾盘反弹与美国股市的上涨如出一辙。比特币与纳斯达克100指数的40天相关系数已经达到近0.66，是2010年开始汇编相关数据以来的最高水平。比特币与标普500指数的一个类似相关系数也处于创纪录水平。近几周来，加密货币遭遇了广泛的抛售压力，交易员指出美联储发出鹰派信号以及科技股下跌促使投资者逃离风险资产。自去年11月创下69000美元的历史高位以来，比特币已下跌逾50%。国际宏观1、受奥米克戎疫情的影响 美国商业活动几乎停滞IHS Markit周一公布的数据显示，12月综合采购经理指数初值下滑6.2个点，至18个月低点50.8。数据高于50暗示扩张。服务业指标同样跌至2020年7月以来的最低水平，劳动力短缺和员工缺勤令服务业活动承压。制造业指数跌幅相比之下较为温和，但是指数仍旧为2020年10月以来的新低，供应链依然不畅，产出受限。“产出受到奥米克戎的影响比需求受到的影响大得多，新业务流入的强劲增长暗示一旦限制得以缓和，增速就会重新恢复，”IHS Markit首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示。2、美国食品价格连番大涨 巨头企业与拜登政府互怼食品公司表示，价格上涨符合市场规律，极端天气和疫情对供应链的干扰增加了生产成本，减少了食品供给；与此同时，美国境内外的需求都在增加。但拜登政府和一些参议员则认为，行业垄断才是涨价的主要源头，少数巨头公司有能力抬高价格，并从通货膨胀中获利。3、俄乌剑拔弩张，金融市场风声鹤唳! 卢布一度跌超2%，欧股全线下挫俄罗斯和乌克兰的政府债券、货币和股市已经受到冲击，事态升级有可能引发投资者匆忙撤离。尽管美国和欧洲尚未讨论对俄罗斯大宗商品的制裁，但冲突有可能会破坏天然气和小麦期货价格的稳定，甚至威胁到欧股短期走势。近期，随着一些投资者转向寻找最安全的资产，他们对美债的投资兴趣激增。欧盟外长将于周一与美国国务卿布林肯讨论乌克兰问题，有分析人士认为在此期间金融市场的波动可能将加剧4、世卫组织：今年有望结束疫情的最严重阶段世卫组织总干事谭德塞表示，在可预见的未来，人类将与新冠病毒共存，当前形势下很可能出现更多变异株。如果各国能全面使用所有战略和工具，今年就可以结束疫情的最严重阶段，新冠疫情将不再是全球突发公共卫生事件。5、德国电气产业2021年销售额有望首次突破2000亿欧元2021年1月至11月期间，德国电子电气行业生产增长近9%，销售额同比增长近10%。该协会预计2021年行业整体销售额有望第一次突破2000亿欧元大关。该协会主席冈瑟·凯格尔称，受益于对其他国家的出口增加，几乎所有电气子行业都取得“积极发展”。其中，电池行业增长了近40% 。6、德国总理：将推动新一轮新冠疫苗接种运动德国总理朔尔茨在会后的新闻发布会上表示，德国需要坚持现行的防疫措施，同时大力推进新一轮的疫苗接种运动。朔尔茨称，虽然德国在疫苗接种方面已经取得了一定成果，但还远远不够。7、交易员预测美股下跌不会让美联储暂缓紧缩 3月加息箭在弦上历史上美国股市和其他风险资产的急剧下跌曾经令决策者暂时止步，但这次，即便是在当前科技股带领股市大跌的情况下，对今年加息的押注依然没有动摇，掉期市场显示， 美联储3月料加息25个基点，市场预期2022年全年接近加息一个完整百分点 。公司新闻1、助力元宇宙基建 Meta推出新一代人工智能超级计算机前身为脸书的Meta Platforms， Inc．在其官网推出了公司的“人工智能研究超级集群”（AI Research SuperCluster，下文简称“RSC”）。Meta认为，RSC是目前世界上运行速度最快的一批人工智能（AI）超级计算机之一，“一旦在2022年中期完全建成，它将正式成为世界上最快的AI超级计算机。”2、美国三州和华盛顿特区起诉谷歌不当获取用户位置数据华盛顿州总检察长卡尔·拉辛（Karl Racine）在一份声明中表示：“谷歌错误地引导消费者相信，更改他们的账户和设备设置可以保护他们的隐私，并能够限制（谷歌）公司访问他们的个人数据。”据报道，得克萨斯州、华盛顿州和印第安纳州的总检察长也将在各自的州提出诉讼。3、亚马逊将开设首家实体时装店 智能算法、魔法衣橱成亮点电商巨头亚马逊再次将触角伸向实体产业。1月20日，它宣布将开设首家时装店，并在店中加入科技元素，包括算法推荐和“魔法衣橱”，但尚未公布具体开店时间。据悉，这家新店名为“亚马逊风”（Amazon Style），将开设在大洛杉矶地区的The Americana at Brand商场内，与Nordstrom百货、Urban Outfitters、J。 Crew、H&M等店铺为邻。按照亚马逊风总经理西莫伊娜·瓦森（Simoina Vasen）的说法，如果不能大大改善客户的购物体验，亚马逊就“没有参与实体零售业的必要”。4、默沙东又输一局？传EMA将优先审批辉瑞新冠口服药去年12月，欧洲药品监管局（EMA）就如何将这两种药物用作紧急治疗向成员国提供了指导，同时进行了滚动审查，使得成员国得以在欧盟正式批准之前采用这两种药物。意大利、德国和比利时等少数几个欧盟国家采购了Paxlovid和Molnupiravir。消息人士称，尽管默沙东比辉瑞更早提出申请，但他们提交最终疗效数据的时间更晚，因此欧洲监管机构花了更多时间来审查最后的数据。5、蔚来成立近800万美元保险经纪公司，盘前延续上周五跌势而蔚来也并非第一家设立保险经纪公司的企业，早在2020年8月份，特斯拉（TSLA.US）就成立了相同性质的公司，由特斯拉汽车香港有限公司100%控股。此外，2021年12月27日，上海保险交易所上线新能源车险交易平台（以下简称交易平台），并首批挂牌人保财险、平安财险、太保产险等12家财险公司的新能源汽车专属保险产品，为新能源汽车专属保险产品落地服务提供支持。6、IBM第四季度营收创十年来最大增幅，盘后一度飙升7%美股周一盘后，IBM公布了截止2021年12月31日的第四季度财报。财报显示，公司营收高和每股收益均超出了分析师的预期，IBM美股盘后涨幅从2.95%一度扩大至6.99%。年初以来，IBM的股价累计下跌5.31%，优于同期标准普尔全球100指数累计8.71%的跌幅。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0,".SPX":0,".IXIC":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005799845,"gmtCreate":1642397215617,"gmtModify":1676533707779,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005799845","repostId":"1139332573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139332573","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642377889,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139332573?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-17 08:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Innovative Intelligence begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.51.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139332573","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月17日，创新奇智发布公告，公司拟全球发售4474.44万股股份，其中香港发售股份447.46万股，国际发售股份4026.98万股，另有15%超额配股权；1月17日至1月20日招股；发售价每股发售股","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 17,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02121\">Innovative and ingenious</a>The company announced that it plans to offer 44.7444 million shares globally, including 4.4746 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 40.2698 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option. The IPO will be held from January 17 to January 20; The offer price is HK$26.3-27.3 per offer share, with trading units of 100 shares per lot, and an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.5.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>and China Renaissance Capital as the Joint Sponsors; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 27 January 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59021fcd65ae12ea42bed85365858ba\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot consists of 100 shares, with an entry fee of HK$2,757.51.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 200,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,515,028.61.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33de26f1f6649f119ca5c6b7ecbc6ee\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The company is a rapidly growing enterprise AI solutions provider in China. Based on its research capabilities in the field of deep learning, the company has developed proprietary computer vision and machine learning AI technologies to empower Chinese companies. By combining AI technology with insights into industry scenarios, the company provides full-stack AI products and solutions to help businesses reduce costs, increase efficiency, and optimize decision-making. In less than three years since its inception, the company has established its brand in China's enterprise AI solutions industry. According to Frost & Sullivan, in 2020, the company was the third largest AI technology-driven solutions provider in China's enterprise AI solutions market by revenue, with a 0.3% market share among more than 1,500 market participants. The company focuses on developing and providing AI products and solutions for the manufacturing and financial services industries in China.</p><p>The company has entered into a cornerstone investment agreement, pursuant to which the cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe for or procure their designated entities to subscribe for a total amount of approximately HK$202 million (assuming an offer price of HK$26.80, i.e., the mid-point of the offer price range), subject to certain conditions. The total number of offer shares to be subscribed by the cornerstone investors is 7,552,300 shares. Cornerstone investors include SVF II Zeal, and Laurion Capital Master Fund. Vision Fund, established in Jersey as a Limited partnership, is an investment Fund focused on investing in the global technology sector, with SVF II GP (Jersey) Limited, a company incorporated in Jersey and a wholly-owned subsidiary of SoftBank Group, as its general partner. SVF II Zeal is a special purpose vehicle indirectly majority owned by Vision Fund.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392cfff6d6a51a1e9c24586c74759b83\" tg-width=\"1163\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming an offer price of HK$26.8 per share (i.e., the mid-point of the offer price range), and assuming the over-allotment option has not yet been exercised, the company expects to receive net proceeds of approximately HK$1.0919 billion from the global offering. Approximately 45.0% of the net proceeds will be used to enhance the company's R&D capabilities over the next four years; Approximately 25.0% will be used to enhance the company's commercialization capabilities over the next four years. The company plans to expand its internal sales team and strengthen cooperation with third-party system integrators and business partners (such as joint ventures and strategic alliances). The company will increase its penetration rate in regions, industries, and industry verticals with high demand for its AI solutions; Approximately 10.0% for potential strategic investments and acquisitions within the next five years. The company plans to acquire assets and businesses that will enhance the company's value proposition among its customers through equity investments or asset acquisitions, such as businesses focused on software or SaaS products with differentiated proprietary insights in computer vision and deep learning technologies that can complement the company's AI product portfolio; Approximately 10.0% will be used to strengthen the company's internal systems and upgrade its information infrastructure over the next four years; and approximately 10.0% for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Innovative Intelligence begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.51.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInnovative Intelligence begins its IPO today, with an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.51.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 17,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02121\">Innovative and ingenious</a>The company announced that it plans to offer 44.7444 million shares globally, including 4.4746 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 40.2698 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option. The IPO will be held from January 17 to January 20; The offer price is HK$26.3-27.3 per offer share, with trading units of 100 shares per lot, and an entry fee of approximately HK$2,757.5.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>and China Renaissance Capital as the Joint Sponsors; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 27 January 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59021fcd65ae12ea42bed85365858ba\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot consists of 100 shares, with an entry fee of HK$2,757.51.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 200,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,515,028.61.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33de26f1f6649f119ca5c6b7ecbc6ee\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The company is a rapidly growing enterprise AI solutions provider in China. Based on its research capabilities in the field of deep learning, the company has developed proprietary computer vision and machine learning AI technologies to empower Chinese companies. By combining AI technology with insights into industry scenarios, the company provides full-stack AI products and solutions to help businesses reduce costs, increase efficiency, and optimize decision-making. In less than three years since its inception, the company has established its brand in China's enterprise AI solutions industry. According to Frost & Sullivan, in 2020, the company was the third largest AI technology-driven solutions provider in China's enterprise AI solutions market by revenue, with a 0.3% market share among more than 1,500 market participants. The company focuses on developing and providing AI products and solutions for the manufacturing and financial services industries in China.</p><p>The company has entered into a cornerstone investment agreement, pursuant to which the cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe for or procure their designated entities to subscribe for a total amount of approximately HK$202 million (assuming an offer price of HK$26.80, i.e., the mid-point of the offer price range), subject to certain conditions. The total number of offer shares to be subscribed by the cornerstone investors is 7,552,300 shares. Cornerstone investors include SVF II Zeal, and Laurion Capital Master Fund. Vision Fund, established in Jersey as a Limited partnership, is an investment Fund focused on investing in the global technology sector, with SVF II GP (Jersey) Limited, a company incorporated in Jersey and a wholly-owned subsidiary of SoftBank Group, as its general partner. SVF II Zeal is a special purpose vehicle indirectly majority owned by Vision Fund.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392cfff6d6a51a1e9c24586c74759b83\" tg-width=\"1163\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming an offer price of HK$26.8 per share (i.e., the mid-point of the offer price range), and assuming the over-allotment option has not yet been exercised, the company expects to receive net proceeds of approximately HK$1.0919 billion from the global offering. Approximately 45.0% of the net proceeds will be used to enhance the company's R&D capabilities over the next four years; Approximately 25.0% will be used to enhance the company's commercialization capabilities over the next four years. The company plans to expand its internal sales team and strengthen cooperation with third-party system integrators and business partners (such as joint ventures and strategic alliances). The company will increase its penetration rate in regions, industries, and industry verticals with high demand for its AI solutions; Approximately 10.0% for potential strategic investments and acquisitions within the next five years. The company plans to acquire assets and businesses that will enhance the company's value proposition among its customers through equity investments or asset acquisitions, such as businesses focused on software or SaaS products with differentiated proprietary insights in computer vision and deep learning technologies that can complement the company's AI product portfolio; Approximately 10.0% will be used to strengthen the company's internal systems and upgrade its information infrastructure over the next four years; and approximately 10.0% for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"02121":"创新奇智"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139332573","content_text":"1月17日，创新奇智发布公告，公司拟全球发售4474.44万股股份，其中香港发售股份447.46万股，国际发售股份4026.98万股，另有15%超额配股权；1月17日至1月20日招股；发售价每股发售股份26.3-27.3港元，每手买卖单位100股，入场费约2757.5港元；瑞银、中金公司及华兴资本为联席保荐人；预期股份将于2022年1月27日于联交所主板挂牌上市。申购阶梯：每手100股，入场费2757.51港元。乙组门槛为20万股，申购所需资金约5515028.61港元。公司是中国快速发展的企业AI解决方案提供商。基于在深度学习领域的研究能力，公司开发了专有的计算机视觉和机器学习AI技术，赋能中国企业。透过将AI技术与对行业场景的洞察相结合，公司提供全栈式AI产品和解决方案，从而为企业实现降本增效及优化决策。在公司成立以来仅仅不到三年的时间里，公司已在中国企业AI解决方案行业建立公司的品牌。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，于2020年，以收入计，公司为中国企业AI解决方案市场上第三大AI技术驱动型解决方案提供商，在逾1500个市场参与者中有0.3%的市场份额。公司专注于开发并于中国提供制造业及金融服务业开发的AI产品及解决方案。公司已订立基石投资协议，据此，基石投资者已同意在若干条件的规限下认购或促使其指定实体认购总金额约2.02亿港元(假设发售价为26.80港元，即发售价范围中位数)，基石投资者将予认购的发售股份总数为755.23万股。基石投资者包括SVF II Zeal，及Laurion Capital Master Fund。作为有限合伙企业于泽西成立的Vision Fund为一家专注于全球科技行业投资的投资基金，其普通合伙人为SVF II GP (Jersey) Limited(一家于泽西注册成立的公司及软银集团的全资附属公司)。SVF II Zeal为一家由Vision Fund间接拥有多数股权的特殊目的公司。假设发售价每股26.8港元(即发售价范围中位价)，并假设超额配股权尚未行使，公司预计自全球发售收取所得款项净额约10.919亿港元。其中，所得款项净额约45.0%将用于提高公司于未来四年的研发能力；约25.0%用于提升公司于未来四年内的商业化能力。公司计划扩张公司的内部销售团队及加强与第三方系统集成商及业务合作伙伴的合作(例如合营企业及战略联盟)。公司将提升对公司AI解决方案需求旺盛的地区、行业及行业垂直领域的渗透率；约10.0%用于未来五年内的潜在策略投资及收购。公司计划透过股权投资或资产收购来收购将可在公司客户中提升公司价值主张的资产及业务，例如专注于在计算机视觉和深度学习技术方面具有差异化专有见解的以及可与公司AI产品案互补的软件或SaaS产品的业务；约10.0%用于在未来四年内加强公司的内部系统及升级公司的信息基础设施；及约10.0%用作营运资本及一般公司用途。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02121":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097361627,"gmtCreate":1645339019977,"gmtModify":1676534020301,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097361627","repostId":"1142549921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142549921","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1645326437,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142549921?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-20 11:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: How do geopolitical risks affect asset prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142549921","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要年初以来，地缘风险有升温迹象，成为全球资产定价主线之一。我们结合历次经验的一般性特征，以及此次局势的可能不同点两个角度出发，梳理可能演变与影响。一、地缘冲突的一般性规律：短期冲击风险偏好，但影响有","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, geopolitical risks have shown signs of escalating and have become one of the main themes in global asset pricing. We analyze the possible evolution and impact from two perspectives: the general characteristics of previous experiences and the possible differences in this situation.</p><p><b>I. General Patterns of Geopolitical Conflicts: Short-term shock risk appetite, but the impact is limited and mostly transient, and does not change the original trend.</b></p><p><b>1）</b>In the short term, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict will suppress risk appetite, causing safe-haven assets to benefit while risky assets to suffer.<b>2）</b>Among different markets, emerging markets are generally more affected than developed markets, mainly because emerging markets have a higher risk premium than developed markets.<b>3）</b>In terms of the extent and duration of the impact, local conflicts will not have a particularly significant impact on major assets and will last relatively short.<b>4）</b>From the perspective of impact patterns, shocks are often impulsive and do not completely change the original trend. After the conflict, various assets will quickly rebound to repair lost ground.</p><p><b>II. The \"Special Nature\" of the Russia-Ukraine Situation: Disturbing Inflation Levels and Monetary Tightening Expectations Through Energy Prices</b></p><p>Because Russia plays a crucial role in the supply of key resources, if subsequent sanctions are imposed due to this geopolitical conflict...<b>This could trigger \"collateral losses\" in the supply gap of some assets, and the impact of the latter could be far greater than the short-term shock caused solely by risk appetite.</b>The main conduction path is,<b>1）</b>The supply premium pushes up crude oil prices, which in turn affects inflation expectations and the path of tightening. If oil prices rise to $120 while other prices remain unchanged, we estimate that the US CPI may increase by an additional 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.<b>2）</b>Nord Stream 2 may further exacerbate the shortage in Europe's energy market.<b>3）</b>Potential financial and export sanctions will also affect Russia's fiscal revenue, which in turn will affect its exchange rate and foreign debt repayment capacity.</p><p><b>Third, if the situation escalates, how should we respond and mitigate the risks? Traditional safe-haven assets, volatility hedging, oil prices</b></p><p>From a purely risk-averse perspective,<b>VIX > US Treasury Bond > Japanese Treasury Bond > Japanese Yen > Gold</b>。 Potential hedging options are:<b>1) Buy traditional safe-haven or defensive assets</b>。 Such as gold and the US-Japan Treasury Bond, defensive sectors in the stock market. However, the rising inflation expectations and monetary tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.<b>2) Hedging through bullish volatility VIX</b>。 However, the downside is that once the situation calms down, volatility will decline very quickly, and there is a loss of time value. Therefore, it is necessary to close positions in time after making a profit rather than holding them for the long term, otherwise you will be dragged down by it.<b>3）</b>Crude oil, which has benefited from the supply premium this time, may also have a certain hedging effect.</p><p><b>This week's focus: Geopolitical risks persist; how can they affect asset prices and hedge against potential risks?</b></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, global geopolitical risks have shown signs of escalating, and the continued tension in Russia-Ukraine relations has attracted much attention and become one of the main themes in global asset pricing recently. For example, while risk aversion pushed up gold and the US Dollar Index and suppressed US Treasury yields, it also increased selling pressure on some risky assets such as Nasdaq growth stocks. Concerns about the risk of sanctions against Russia pushed crude oil prices higher, which in turn increased market concerns about already high inflationary pressures and the pace of monetary tightening.<b>It is not difficult to see that, given its important role in the pricing of some resources, the evolution of the situation between Russia and Ukraine may have far-reaching consequences.</b>。</p><p>Although we cannot make an accurate judgment on the subsequent evolution of the situation (the recent mix of information has made the situation even more unpredictable), this does not prevent us from combining the general characteristics of asset performance during previous geopolitical risks and local conflicts, as well as the possible differences in this situation, to sort out the possible evolution and impact in different scenarios for investors' reference.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fdf8b4b446120fa8f3c89582607b9c\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>I. General Patterns of Geopolitical Conflicts: Short-term shock risk appetite, but the impact is limited and mostly transient, and does not change the original trend.</b></p><p><b>Geopolitical risks, especially regional conflicts, are often difficult to predict accurately due to their suddenness. However, this is precisely why such events can cause impulsive and instantaneous shocks to global risk assets and markets.</b>。 For example, after the better-than-expected US CPI in January triggered a rise in rate hike expectations last Thursday, 10-year US Treasury bonds once surged to over 2% (\"Where Have rate hike Expectations Gone?\"). However, on Friday, due to the sudden escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, 10-year US Treasury bonds completely gave back all their gains and fell back to around 1.9%, and the VIX index surged 14.4% to 27.4. Crude oil prices surged, breaking through $94 per barrel. After tensions escalated again on Thursday, the VIX index climbed, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell by more than 2%. US Treasury yields has declined again in 10 years; Gold rose 1.6% and briefly broke through $1,900 per ounce.<b>It can be seen that when geopolitical conflicts escalate, it is a general rule that safe-haven assets benefit while risky assets suffer losses.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b379dc765b3014f39e1e9ff0ae457e7c\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But the question is, how big will this impact be and how long will it last? To help investors better understand the extent, breadth, and duration of the impact, we compared the performance of global markets and assets in typical local conflicts since the 1990s, especially those involving major powers such as the United States and Russia, and identified the following patterns, such as the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the subsequent war in Afghanistan. The 2003 Iraq War; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggered by the Crimean crisis in 2014; U.S. military intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2014; US airstrikes on Syria in 2017; The 2017 Korean Peninsula crisis; In January 2020, the United States launched airstrikes against Iran and other</p><p><b>► First, without exception, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict will suppress risk appetite in the short term, causing safe-haven assets to benefit while risky assets to suffer losses.</b>Based on the historical experience we have summarized above, when conflicts occur (usually within a week to a month), global stock markets will be negatively impacted and fall, whether for a long or short period of time. Safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold, and the Japanese yen benefited relatively.</p><p><b>► Secondly, between different markets</b>Apart from the Crimean crisis in 2014, which hit Europe hardest, emerging markets were generally more affected than developed markets, mainly because emerging markets have a higher risk premium than developed markets. However, after the conflict subsided, the rebound and recovery in emerging markets became more significant.</p><p><b>►</b>Third, in terms of the extent of the impact and the duration of its impact, unless it significantly exceeds expectations and there is a risk of it spreading to a wider area,<b>Otherwise, the impact of local conflicts on major assets would not be particularly significant and would be relatively short-lived.</b>Of the cases mentioned above, except for the 9/11 attacks in 2001, which triggered widespread panic because the United States was directly attacked (developed stock markets fell by an average of ~5%, and emerging markets fell by as much as ~10%) and had a longer impact on the market, the other cases all had a weekly impact, with the market typically falling by about 5% during this period.</p><p><b>► Fourth, from the perspective of impact patterns, the impact of local wars is often impulsive and does not completely change the original trend.</b>Therefore, after crises and conflicts, various assets will rebound rapidly to repair lost ground.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/821b7d4903af14b9922978b61900fe5e\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c9ab70f01946d9aad32e0730b00430\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>II. The \"Special Nature\" of the Russia-Ukraine Situation: Disturbing Inflation Levels and Monetary Tightening Expectations Through Energy Prices</b></p><p>Based on the general patterns of geopolitical conflicts mentioned above, if the current tensions between Russia and Ukraine are only localized and short-term, their impact may be more limited to short-term risk appetite. However, due to Russia's interest in major resources (such as energy, natural gas, and some...)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>It plays an important role in global supply (in 2021, Russia contributed 12% and 21% of global oil and gas exports, respectively; Europe is more dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies, with Russia's oil and gas exports to Europe accounting for 29% and 36% of global exports to Europe in 2021, respectively, and Russia's pipeline gas to Europe accounting for about 35% of Europe's total natural gas imports).</p><p>Therefore,<b>If this geopolitical conflict leads to subsequent sanctions, it could trigger \"collateral losses\" in the supply gap of some assets, and the impact of the latter could be far greater than the short-term impact caused solely by risk appetite.</b>The main conduction path is,</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/260135087c025bcc8e10617b6e8e309d\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88c8702e405455c50fd1cfe84edfbf9b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1) The supply premium pushes up crude oil prices, thereby affecting inflation expectations and the tightening path.</b>With relatively low inventories in some areas and the improvement in the pandemic driving border opening and travel demand, the potential \"supply premium\" triggered by the Russia-Ukraine situation has become a key variable influencing oil price trends in the short term. According to IEA statistics, as of the end of 2021, Russia accounted for as much as 11% (10.9 million barrels per day) of the global production of approximately 98 million barrels per day. According to calculations by CICC's commodities group, if geopolitical risks evolve into actual supply shocks and assume that Russian oil supply decreases by more than 2 million barrels per day, the oil market may shift from balance to shortage, potentially causing oil prices to experience a supply premium of $30 per barrel and reach a high of $120 per barrel (oil: \"standing on both sides of the coin\").</p><p><b>Given the current high inflation rate, this will undoubtedly further push up apparent inflation and increase pressure on the central bank to tighten.</b>Historically, oil prices have a high correlation with overall inflation, especially energy prices in the CPI, which are highly synchronized (the correlation coefficient has reached 93% since 1990). Energy prices account for approximately 7.4% of the US CPI.<b>If oil prices rise while other prices remain unchanged, we estimate that the US CPI may increase by an additional 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.</b>This will undoubtedly increase market concerns about Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time,<b>Since oil prices are highly correlated with inflation expectations (breakeven) in bond yields, but there is a long edge of 2.7-2.8%, this may also put upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields at the current level (~2.4%).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54911b036eb8fa985f2d0a9ddf7723b3\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc98cff1cf44db5395ae83b96b38a61\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Nord Stream 2 may further exacerbate the shortage in the European energy market.</b>The Nord Stream gas pipeline is an offshore natural gas pipeline operated by Nord Stream AG. The project includes two parallel pipelines, No. 1 and No. 2. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline was laid in May 2011 and put into use in November of the same year. Nord Stream 2 was completed in September 2021, but has not yet been put into use and is still awaiting approval from relevant authorities in Germany and Europe. In the fourth quarter of 2021, cold weather coupled with geopolitical risks between Russia, Europe, and the United States caused significant disruption to the European natural gas market. Following the suspension of approvals for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, on December 18, 2021, the gas transmission volume of the Yamal-Europe pipeline, one of the three major natural gas transportation pipelines from Russia to Europe, plummeted from 250-300 gigawatt-hours per day to 29 gigawatt-hours per day, and the gas transmission direction was reversed starting from December 21. The supply risk premium caused by unexpected supply events pushed up TTF natural gas prices, which surged 31.5% to a record high of $59.5 per million British thermal until Russia subsequently released signals of stable gas supply before prices fell significantly.</p><p>CICC's commodities team stated that, given that Europe is still in its heating season and natural gas inventories are low,<b>Tight fundamentals could further amplify the supply impact of Russian natural gas; therefore, escalating geopolitical risks could exacerbate the shortage situation in European energy markets.</b>(A brief commentary on the potential impact of the hunger and Ukraine situation on the commodity market).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd994bb9b5e808a8383aeabecb44002\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Risk exposure to financial assets, foreign debt and exchange rates.</b>Potential financial and export sanctions will also affect Russia's fiscal revenues, which in turn will affect its exchange rate and foreign debt repayment capacity. As of the third quarter of 2021, the total foreign currency-denominated liabilities of all sectors in Russia accounted for 25% of GDP (compared to 19% for the non-financial corporate sector). If potential sanctions emerge, they could narrow Russia's current account surplus, thereby affecting exchange rate trends and Russia's external financing capabilities, and even leading to repayment risks. Since the beginning of the year, with the continued escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian ruble has depreciated by 3.4% against the US dollar, and the Russian sovereign debt CDS has also jumped by ~60 basis points to a new high since 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9940cb9607df8ccfb32698fa32d2627c\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, if the situation escalates, how should we respond and mitigate the risks? Traditional safe-haven assets, volatility hedging, oil prices</b></p><p>Although we believe it is still a low-probability event, how should investors respond if the situation escalates or even a larger-scale conflict breaks out?<b>Traditional safe-haven assets, as well as crude oil, which may benefit from the supply premium this time, may have a certain safe-haven effect.</b>However, inflation expectations and rising tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.</p><p>The essence of safe-haven assets is that the correlation between them and risky assets is very low or even negative, which can achieve the effect of limiting the impact or even increasing when risky assets fall. By analyzing the correlation between several major safe-haven asset classes and global stock markets since 2000, we found that...<b>From a purely safe-haven perspective, the VIX index > US Treasury Bond > Japanese Treasury Bond > Japanese Yen > Gold.</b></p><p>Therefore, potential hedging options are:<b>1) Buy traditional safe-haven or defensive assets.</b>Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and US, Japan, and Treasury Bond can serve as good hedges; In addition, defensive sectors in the stock market, such as food and beverage, household goods, utilities, and biopharmaceutical sectors, can also play a certain role in hedging against sharp market fluctuations. However, the rising inflation expectations and monetary tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.<b>2) Hedge by being bullish on volatility VIX.</b>The main logic behind buying bullish volatility products to hedge portfolio risk exposure is that market volatility tends to rise rapidly when risks erupt. However, the disadvantage of this approach is that once the situation calms down, volatility will decline very quickly. At the same time, VIX is the implied volatility of options, so there is a loss of time value. Therefore, it is necessary to close the position in time after making a profit and it is not suitable for long-term holding, otherwise it will drag you down.<b>3) Crude oil, which has benefited from the supply premium, may also have a certain hedging effect if the event escalates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc3bf5433e1fee9a95c4f12e76f7d0b\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c7d92f6c878c759d4bfe1e63519963\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine escalate again; US Treasury yields rises but then falls back; defense sector leads the way.</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Commodities > Bonds > Stocks, stock market generally declined, defensive sectors led the way.</b></p><p>Midweek this week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its January FOMC meeting. The minutes show that they signaled a possible rate hike in March, but did not hint at the possibility of an accelerated rate hike in March, nor did they mention the timing of shrinking balance sheet or other further details. The CME futures market implies that the probability of a 50-basis-point rate hike in March has fallen to around 65%. As the weekend approached, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated again, with Biden again warning that the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was \"very high.\" US stocks suffered setbacks, US Treasury yields retreated from its highs, and gold prices briefly broke through $1,900 per ounce.</p><p>Overall, in the past week, in US dollar terms, commodities > bonds > stocks; Natural gas, the ChiNext board, and the Brazilian real led the gains, while Bitcoin, Russian, and German stock markets led the declines. In terms of sectors, household goods, transportation, and food and tobacco led the gains in the S&P 500, while energy, software and services, and media led the declines. Regarding interest rates, the 10-year US Treasury yields surged before falling to 1.93%, a decrease of about 1 basis point. Among them, the real interest rate rose by about 3 basis points, while inflation expectations fell by about 4 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5b74d77028bc7247084abdaea6db008\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6250ca9d5df71192d9dd1b852a8d1c63\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Sentiment Positioning: VIX climbs near weekend, gold overbought, short-term Treasury Bond shorts surge</b></p><p>Over the past week, the VIX index rose at the beginning of the week before falling back, and rose again near the weekend, with the ratio of bearish/bullish options (10-day average) increasing. Overbought stocks in major markets have all declined; The oversold US Treasury bonds eased, gold rose to overbought levels, and Brent crude fell back to a reasonable range. In terms of positions, speculative net long positions in US stocks and the US dollar increased, net short positions in gold increased, and net short positions in 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds both increased, with the increase in net short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds being more significant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f0c710a24b59bd506be625cde86c63\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/215f0a6df0a49c50c73fc2e89a90872c\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund Flow: Stock Market Inflow Slows, Bond Market Outflow Accelerates</b></p><p>Over the past week, equity fund inflows have slowed, while bond and money market funds have accelerated their outflows. By market, in the stock market, emerging markets continued to flow in, while Europe and the United States turned to outflows, and Japan accelerated its outflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1708347463ce1cae937f8d74567644\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policy: US January PPI and retail sales both exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>In the United States, existing home sales rose more than expected in January, and the January PPI exceeded expectations month-on-month. New home starts in January reached 1.638 million units, lower than the previous figure of 1.708 million units and the expected 1.695 million units. Existing home sales reached 6.5 million units, higher than the previous figure of 6.09 million units and the expected 6.1 million units. The US PPI rose 1% month-on-month in January, higher than the previous value (0.4%) and the expected value (0.5%). Energy and food prices remained the biggest drivers, and the cost of goods grew faster than the service sector. Omicron had a limited impact on demand, and U.S. retail sales rose more than expected month-on-month in January. U.S. retail sales rose 3.8% month-over-month in January, higher than the previous figure of -2.5% and the expected 2%, marking the largest increase since March 2021. While this rebound may have a base effect (down 2.5% month-on-month in December), the month-on-month growth in January brought the absolute scale back to before the Omicron outbreak, indicating that the impact on demand was limited. Structurally, due to the high level of US cases in January, some sectors that were significantly disrupted by the pandemic, such as food and beverage services, recovered relatively slowly (-0.9% month-on-month, -0.6% previous value). In addition, industrial production also clearly turned positive in January.</p><p>In Europe, the UK's CPI hit a new high year-on-year in January. The UK's January CPI reached 5.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous value and the expected 5.4%, marking a new high in nearly 30 years. By category, the largest contributions came from clothing, footwear, furniture, and household appliances. In Japan, the annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate rose significantly in the fourth quarter, but fell short of expectations. Japan's real GDP rose 5.4% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, higher than the previous figure of -2.7%, but lower than the expected 6%. Japan's January CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 0.2% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0.5% and the expected 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d6c430c37725f0c2055dc3487e73fb9\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: slightly below the reasonable level of growth and liquidity models</b></p><p>The current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 21.4 is slightly lower than the reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~21.7 times).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e960eaf15f523909d9b23f9477528b\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: How do geopolitical risks affect asset prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: How do geopolitical risks affect asset prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-20 11:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, geopolitical risks have shown signs of escalating and have become one of the main themes in global asset pricing. We analyze the possible evolution and impact from two perspectives: the general characteristics of previous experiences and the possible differences in this situation.</p><p><b>I. General Patterns of Geopolitical Conflicts: Short-term shock risk appetite, but the impact is limited and mostly transient, and does not change the original trend.</b></p><p><b>1）</b>In the short term, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict will suppress risk appetite, causing safe-haven assets to benefit while risky assets to suffer.<b>2）</b>Among different markets, emerging markets are generally more affected than developed markets, mainly because emerging markets have a higher risk premium than developed markets.<b>3）</b>In terms of the extent and duration of the impact, local conflicts will not have a particularly significant impact on major assets and will last relatively short.<b>4）</b>From the perspective of impact patterns, shocks are often impulsive and do not completely change the original trend. After the conflict, various assets will quickly rebound to repair lost ground.</p><p><b>II. The \"Special Nature\" of the Russia-Ukraine Situation: Disturbing Inflation Levels and Monetary Tightening Expectations Through Energy Prices</b></p><p>Because Russia plays a crucial role in the supply of key resources, if subsequent sanctions are imposed due to this geopolitical conflict...<b>This could trigger \"collateral losses\" in the supply gap of some assets, and the impact of the latter could be far greater than the short-term shock caused solely by risk appetite.</b>The main conduction path is,<b>1）</b>The supply premium pushes up crude oil prices, which in turn affects inflation expectations and the path of tightening. If oil prices rise to $120 while other prices remain unchanged, we estimate that the US CPI may increase by an additional 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.<b>2）</b>Nord Stream 2 may further exacerbate the shortage in Europe's energy market.<b>3）</b>Potential financial and export sanctions will also affect Russia's fiscal revenue, which in turn will affect its exchange rate and foreign debt repayment capacity.</p><p><b>Third, if the situation escalates, how should we respond and mitigate the risks? Traditional safe-haven assets, volatility hedging, oil prices</b></p><p>From a purely risk-averse perspective,<b>VIX > US Treasury Bond > Japanese Treasury Bond > Japanese Yen > Gold</b>。 Potential hedging options are:<b>1) Buy traditional safe-haven or defensive assets</b>。 Such as gold and the US-Japan Treasury Bond, defensive sectors in the stock market. However, the rising inflation expectations and monetary tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.<b>2) Hedging through bullish volatility VIX</b>。 However, the downside is that once the situation calms down, volatility will decline very quickly, and there is a loss of time value. Therefore, it is necessary to close positions in time after making a profit rather than holding them for the long term, otherwise you will be dragged down by it.<b>3）</b>Crude oil, which has benefited from the supply premium this time, may also have a certain hedging effect.</p><p><b>This week's focus: Geopolitical risks persist; how can they affect asset prices and hedge against potential risks?</b></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, global geopolitical risks have shown signs of escalating, and the continued tension in Russia-Ukraine relations has attracted much attention and become one of the main themes in global asset pricing recently. For example, while risk aversion pushed up gold and the US Dollar Index and suppressed US Treasury yields, it also increased selling pressure on some risky assets such as Nasdaq growth stocks. Concerns about the risk of sanctions against Russia pushed crude oil prices higher, which in turn increased market concerns about already high inflationary pressures and the pace of monetary tightening.<b>It is not difficult to see that, given its important role in the pricing of some resources, the evolution of the situation between Russia and Ukraine may have far-reaching consequences.</b>。</p><p>Although we cannot make an accurate judgment on the subsequent evolution of the situation (the recent mix of information has made the situation even more unpredictable), this does not prevent us from combining the general characteristics of asset performance during previous geopolitical risks and local conflicts, as well as the possible differences in this situation, to sort out the possible evolution and impact in different scenarios for investors' reference.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fdf8b4b446120fa8f3c89582607b9c\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>I. General Patterns of Geopolitical Conflicts: Short-term shock risk appetite, but the impact is limited and mostly transient, and does not change the original trend.</b></p><p><b>Geopolitical risks, especially regional conflicts, are often difficult to predict accurately due to their suddenness. However, this is precisely why such events can cause impulsive and instantaneous shocks to global risk assets and markets.</b>。 For example, after the better-than-expected US CPI in January triggered a rise in rate hike expectations last Thursday, 10-year US Treasury bonds once surged to over 2% (\"Where Have rate hike Expectations Gone?\"). However, on Friday, due to the sudden escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, 10-year US Treasury bonds completely gave back all their gains and fell back to around 1.9%, and the VIX index surged 14.4% to 27.4. Crude oil prices surged, breaking through $94 per barrel. After tensions escalated again on Thursday, the VIX index climbed, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell by more than 2%. US Treasury yields has declined again in 10 years; Gold rose 1.6% and briefly broke through $1,900 per ounce.<b>It can be seen that when geopolitical conflicts escalate, it is a general rule that safe-haven assets benefit while risky assets suffer losses.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b379dc765b3014f39e1e9ff0ae457e7c\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But the question is, how big will this impact be and how long will it last? To help investors better understand the extent, breadth, and duration of the impact, we compared the performance of global markets and assets in typical local conflicts since the 1990s, especially those involving major powers such as the United States and Russia, and identified the following patterns, such as the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the subsequent war in Afghanistan. The 2003 Iraq War; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggered by the Crimean crisis in 2014; U.S. military intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2014; US airstrikes on Syria in 2017; The 2017 Korean Peninsula crisis; In January 2020, the United States launched airstrikes against Iran and other</p><p><b>► First, without exception, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict will suppress risk appetite in the short term, causing safe-haven assets to benefit while risky assets to suffer losses.</b>Based on the historical experience we have summarized above, when conflicts occur (usually within a week to a month), global stock markets will be negatively impacted and fall, whether for a long or short period of time. Safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold, and the Japanese yen benefited relatively.</p><p><b>► Secondly, between different markets</b>Apart from the Crimean crisis in 2014, which hit Europe hardest, emerging markets were generally more affected than developed markets, mainly because emerging markets have a higher risk premium than developed markets. However, after the conflict subsided, the rebound and recovery in emerging markets became more significant.</p><p><b>►</b>Third, in terms of the extent of the impact and the duration of its impact, unless it significantly exceeds expectations and there is a risk of it spreading to a wider area,<b>Otherwise, the impact of local conflicts on major assets would not be particularly significant and would be relatively short-lived.</b>Of the cases mentioned above, except for the 9/11 attacks in 2001, which triggered widespread panic because the United States was directly attacked (developed stock markets fell by an average of ~5%, and emerging markets fell by as much as ~10%) and had a longer impact on the market, the other cases all had a weekly impact, with the market typically falling by about 5% during this period.</p><p><b>► Fourth, from the perspective of impact patterns, the impact of local wars is often impulsive and does not completely change the original trend.</b>Therefore, after crises and conflicts, various assets will rebound rapidly to repair lost ground.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/821b7d4903af14b9922978b61900fe5e\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c9ab70f01946d9aad32e0730b00430\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>II. The \"Special Nature\" of the Russia-Ukraine Situation: Disturbing Inflation Levels and Monetary Tightening Expectations Through Energy Prices</b></p><p>Based on the general patterns of geopolitical conflicts mentioned above, if the current tensions between Russia and Ukraine are only localized and short-term, their impact may be more limited to short-term risk appetite. However, due to Russia's interest in major resources (such as energy, natural gas, and some...)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>It plays an important role in global supply (in 2021, Russia contributed 12% and 21% of global oil and gas exports, respectively; Europe is more dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies, with Russia's oil and gas exports to Europe accounting for 29% and 36% of global exports to Europe in 2021, respectively, and Russia's pipeline gas to Europe accounting for about 35% of Europe's total natural gas imports).</p><p>Therefore,<b>If this geopolitical conflict leads to subsequent sanctions, it could trigger \"collateral losses\" in the supply gap of some assets, and the impact of the latter could be far greater than the short-term impact caused solely by risk appetite.</b>The main conduction path is,</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/260135087c025bcc8e10617b6e8e309d\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88c8702e405455c50fd1cfe84edfbf9b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1) The supply premium pushes up crude oil prices, thereby affecting inflation expectations and the tightening path.</b>With relatively low inventories in some areas and the improvement in the pandemic driving border opening and travel demand, the potential \"supply premium\" triggered by the Russia-Ukraine situation has become a key variable influencing oil price trends in the short term. According to IEA statistics, as of the end of 2021, Russia accounted for as much as 11% (10.9 million barrels per day) of the global production of approximately 98 million barrels per day. According to calculations by CICC's commodities group, if geopolitical risks evolve into actual supply shocks and assume that Russian oil supply decreases by more than 2 million barrels per day, the oil market may shift from balance to shortage, potentially causing oil prices to experience a supply premium of $30 per barrel and reach a high of $120 per barrel (oil: \"standing on both sides of the coin\").</p><p><b>Given the current high inflation rate, this will undoubtedly further push up apparent inflation and increase pressure on the central bank to tighten.</b>Historically, oil prices have a high correlation with overall inflation, especially energy prices in the CPI, which are highly synchronized (the correlation coefficient has reached 93% since 1990). Energy prices account for approximately 7.4% of the US CPI.<b>If oil prices rise while other prices remain unchanged, we estimate that the US CPI may increase by an additional 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.</b>This will undoubtedly increase market concerns about Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time,<b>Since oil prices are highly correlated with inflation expectations (breakeven) in bond yields, but there is a long edge of 2.7-2.8%, this may also put upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields at the current level (~2.4%).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54911b036eb8fa985f2d0a9ddf7723b3\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc98cff1cf44db5395ae83b96b38a61\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Nord Stream 2 may further exacerbate the shortage in the European energy market.</b>The Nord Stream gas pipeline is an offshore natural gas pipeline operated by Nord Stream AG. The project includes two parallel pipelines, No. 1 and No. 2. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline was laid in May 2011 and put into use in November of the same year. Nord Stream 2 was completed in September 2021, but has not yet been put into use and is still awaiting approval from relevant authorities in Germany and Europe. In the fourth quarter of 2021, cold weather coupled with geopolitical risks between Russia, Europe, and the United States caused significant disruption to the European natural gas market. Following the suspension of approvals for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, on December 18, 2021, the gas transmission volume of the Yamal-Europe pipeline, one of the three major natural gas transportation pipelines from Russia to Europe, plummeted from 250-300 gigawatt-hours per day to 29 gigawatt-hours per day, and the gas transmission direction was reversed starting from December 21. The supply risk premium caused by unexpected supply events pushed up TTF natural gas prices, which surged 31.5% to a record high of $59.5 per million British thermal until Russia subsequently released signals of stable gas supply before prices fell significantly.</p><p>CICC's commodities team stated that, given that Europe is still in its heating season and natural gas inventories are low,<b>Tight fundamentals could further amplify the supply impact of Russian natural gas; therefore, escalating geopolitical risks could exacerbate the shortage situation in European energy markets.</b>(A brief commentary on the potential impact of the hunger and Ukraine situation on the commodity market).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd994bb9b5e808a8383aeabecb44002\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Risk exposure to financial assets, foreign debt and exchange rates.</b>Potential financial and export sanctions will also affect Russia's fiscal revenues, which in turn will affect its exchange rate and foreign debt repayment capacity. As of the third quarter of 2021, the total foreign currency-denominated liabilities of all sectors in Russia accounted for 25% of GDP (compared to 19% for the non-financial corporate sector). If potential sanctions emerge, they could narrow Russia's current account surplus, thereby affecting exchange rate trends and Russia's external financing capabilities, and even leading to repayment risks. Since the beginning of the year, with the continued escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian ruble has depreciated by 3.4% against the US dollar, and the Russian sovereign debt CDS has also jumped by ~60 basis points to a new high since 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9940cb9607df8ccfb32698fa32d2627c\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, if the situation escalates, how should we respond and mitigate the risks? Traditional safe-haven assets, volatility hedging, oil prices</b></p><p>Although we believe it is still a low-probability event, how should investors respond if the situation escalates or even a larger-scale conflict breaks out?<b>Traditional safe-haven assets, as well as crude oil, which may benefit from the supply premium this time, may have a certain safe-haven effect.</b>However, inflation expectations and rising tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.</p><p>The essence of safe-haven assets is that the correlation between them and risky assets is very low or even negative, which can achieve the effect of limiting the impact or even increasing when risky assets fall. By analyzing the correlation between several major safe-haven asset classes and global stock markets since 2000, we found that...<b>From a purely safe-haven perspective, the VIX index > US Treasury Bond > Japanese Treasury Bond > Japanese Yen > Gold.</b></p><p>Therefore, potential hedging options are:<b>1) Buy traditional safe-haven or defensive assets.</b>Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and US, Japan, and Treasury Bond can serve as good hedges; In addition, defensive sectors in the stock market, such as food and beverage, household goods, utilities, and biopharmaceutical sectors, can also play a certain role in hedging against sharp market fluctuations. However, the rising inflation expectations and monetary tightening may diminish the safe-haven effect of Treasury Bond to some extent.<b>2) Hedge by being bullish on volatility VIX.</b>The main logic behind buying bullish volatility products to hedge portfolio risk exposure is that market volatility tends to rise rapidly when risks erupt. However, the disadvantage of this approach is that once the situation calms down, volatility will decline very quickly. At the same time, VIX is the implied volatility of options, so there is a loss of time value. Therefore, it is necessary to close the position in time after making a profit and it is not suitable for long-term holding, otherwise it will drag you down.<b>3) Crude oil, which has benefited from the supply premium, may also have a certain hedging effect if the event escalates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc3bf5433e1fee9a95c4f12e76f7d0b\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c7d92f6c878c759d4bfe1e63519963\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine escalate again; US Treasury yields rises but then falls back; defense sector leads the way.</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Commodities > Bonds > Stocks, stock market generally declined, defensive sectors led the way.</b></p><p>Midweek this week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its January FOMC meeting. The minutes show that they signaled a possible rate hike in March, but did not hint at the possibility of an accelerated rate hike in March, nor did they mention the timing of shrinking balance sheet or other further details. The CME futures market implies that the probability of a 50-basis-point rate hike in March has fallen to around 65%. As the weekend approached, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated again, with Biden again warning that the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was \"very high.\" US stocks suffered setbacks, US Treasury yields retreated from its highs, and gold prices briefly broke through $1,900 per ounce.</p><p>Overall, in the past week, in US dollar terms, commodities > bonds > stocks; Natural gas, the ChiNext board, and the Brazilian real led the gains, while Bitcoin, Russian, and German stock markets led the declines. In terms of sectors, household goods, transportation, and food and tobacco led the gains in the S&P 500, while energy, software and services, and media led the declines. Regarding interest rates, the 10-year US Treasury yields surged before falling to 1.93%, a decrease of about 1 basis point. Among them, the real interest rate rose by about 3 basis points, while inflation expectations fell by about 4 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5b74d77028bc7247084abdaea6db008\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6250ca9d5df71192d9dd1b852a8d1c63\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Sentiment Positioning: VIX climbs near weekend, gold overbought, short-term Treasury Bond shorts surge</b></p><p>Over the past week, the VIX index rose at the beginning of the week before falling back, and rose again near the weekend, with the ratio of bearish/bullish options (10-day average) increasing. Overbought stocks in major markets have all declined; The oversold US Treasury bonds eased, gold rose to overbought levels, and Brent crude fell back to a reasonable range. In terms of positions, speculative net long positions in US stocks and the US dollar increased, net short positions in gold increased, and net short positions in 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds both increased, with the increase in net short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds being more significant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f0c710a24b59bd506be625cde86c63\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/215f0a6df0a49c50c73fc2e89a90872c\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund Flow: Stock Market Inflow Slows, Bond Market Outflow Accelerates</b></p><p>Over the past week, equity fund inflows have slowed, while bond and money market funds have accelerated their outflows. By market, in the stock market, emerging markets continued to flow in, while Europe and the United States turned to outflows, and Japan accelerated its outflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1708347463ce1cae937f8d74567644\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policy: US January PPI and retail sales both exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>In the United States, existing home sales rose more than expected in January, and the January PPI exceeded expectations month-on-month. New home starts in January reached 1.638 million units, lower than the previous figure of 1.708 million units and the expected 1.695 million units. Existing home sales reached 6.5 million units, higher than the previous figure of 6.09 million units and the expected 6.1 million units. The US PPI rose 1% month-on-month in January, higher than the previous value (0.4%) and the expected value (0.5%). Energy and food prices remained the biggest drivers, and the cost of goods grew faster than the service sector. Omicron had a limited impact on demand, and U.S. retail sales rose more than expected month-on-month in January. U.S. retail sales rose 3.8% month-over-month in January, higher than the previous figure of -2.5% and the expected 2%, marking the largest increase since March 2021. While this rebound may have a base effect (down 2.5% month-on-month in December), the month-on-month growth in January brought the absolute scale back to before the Omicron outbreak, indicating that the impact on demand was limited. Structurally, due to the high level of US cases in January, some sectors that were significantly disrupted by the pandemic, such as food and beverage services, recovered relatively slowly (-0.9% month-on-month, -0.6% previous value). In addition, industrial production also clearly turned positive in January.</p><p>In Europe, the UK's CPI hit a new high year-on-year in January. The UK's January CPI reached 5.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous value and the expected 5.4%, marking a new high in nearly 30 years. By category, the largest contributions came from clothing, footwear, furniture, and household appliances. In Japan, the annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate rose significantly in the fourth quarter, but fell short of expectations. Japan's real GDP rose 5.4% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, higher than the previous figure of -2.7%, but lower than the expected 6%. Japan's January CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 0.2% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0.5% and the expected 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d6c430c37725f0c2055dc3487e73fb9\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: slightly below the reasonable level of growth and liquidity models</b></p><p>The current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 21.4 is slightly lower than the reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~21.7 times).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e960eaf15f523909d9b23f9477528b\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f26a21557b2b9fbf841d276ecb7796","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142549921","content_text":"摘要年初以来，地缘风险有升温迹象，成为全球资产定价主线之一。我们结合历次经验的一般性特征，以及此次局势的可能不同点两个角度出发，梳理可能演变与影响。一、地缘冲突的一般性规律：短期冲击风险偏好，但影响有限且多为瞬时性冲击，不改变原有趋势1）地缘冲突爆发在短期都将打压风险偏好，导致避险资产受益而风险资产受损。2）不同市场间，整体来看新兴市场受到的影响均要大于发达市场，主要由于新兴市场相比发达市场而言具有更高的风险溢价。3）从影响程度和波及时长来看，局部冲突对主要资产的影响不会特别显著且持续时间也相对比较短暂。4）从影响模式看，冲击往往是脉冲式的，并不会完全改变原有趋势，冲突过后，各类资产也会迅速反弹修复失地。二、此次俄乌局势的“特殊性”：通过能源价格扰动通胀水平和货币紧缩预期由于俄罗斯在主要资源品供应中扮演重要角色，因此如果因为此次地缘冲突导致后续制裁的话，可能由此引发部分资产品供给缺口的“连带损失”，而后者的影响可能远大于短期单纯因为风险偏好造成的冲击，主要传导路径为，1）供给溢价推升原油价格，进而影响通胀预期和紧缩路径。若油价上冲到120美元而其他价格保持不变，我们测算或额外抬升美国CPI每月环比0.1个百分点。2）北溪2号或进一步加重欧洲能源市场短缺。3）潜在的金融和出口制裁也会影响俄罗斯财政收入，进而影响其汇率和外债偿付能力。三、如果事态升级，应该如何应对和避险？传统避险资产、波动率对冲、油价单纯从避险效果看，VIX指数>美国国债>日本国债>日元>黄金。潜在的避险方式为：1）买入传统意义上的避险或防御性资产。如黄金和美日国债，股票市场中的防御性板块。不过，此次通胀预期和货币紧缩升温可能导致国债的避险效果打一定折扣。2）通过看多波动率VIX对冲。但缺点在于一旦事态平息，波动率回落也会非常迅速，同时有时间价值耗损，因此获利后需要及时关闭头寸而不适合长期持有，否则反而会受其拖累。3）此次受益于供应溢价的原油也可能起到一定对冲效果。本周焦点：地缘风险挥之不去，如何影响资产价格、如何对冲潜在风险？年初以来，全球地缘风险有不断升温迹象，俄乌关系持续紧张引发诸多关注并成为近期全球资产定价的主线之一。例如，避险情绪在推升黄金和美元指数、并压低美债利率的同时，也加大了一部分风险资产如纳斯达克成长股的抛售压力；而对于俄罗斯遭受制裁风险的担心推升原油价格持续走高，进而又加大了市场对已经居高不下的通胀压力和货币紧缩节奏的担忧。不难看出，由于其在一些资源品定价中扮演的重要角色，俄乌局势演变可能带来牵一发动全身的效果。虽然我们无法对后续局势演变做出准确判断（近期各种信息交杂更使局势显得扑朔迷离），但这不妨碍我们结合历次地缘风险和局部冲突时资产表现的一般性特征，以及此次局势的可能不同点这两个角度分别出发，梳理未来在不同情景下的可能演变与影响，以供投资者参考。一、地缘冲突的一般性规律：短期冲击风险偏好，但影响有限且多为瞬时性冲击，不改变原有趋势地缘风险特别是区域性的冲突，因其突发性，通常很难准确预判，但也正因如此，此类事件都会对全球风险资产和市场造成脉冲式瞬时冲击。例如，上周四1月美国CPI超预期引发加息预期升温后10年美债一度上冲至2%以上（《加息预期走到哪了？》），但周五由于俄乌局势陡然紧张，10年美债完全回吐所有涨幅跌回1.9%附近，VIX指数骤升14.4%至27.4；原油价格大涨突破94美元/桶。本周四局势再度紧张后，VIX指数随之攀升，标普和纳斯达克跌幅都在2%以上；10年美债利率再度回落；黄金涨1.6%并一度突破1900美元/盎司。可以看出，地缘冲突升温时，避险资产受益而风险资产受损是一般性规律。但问题是，这一影响有多大、会持续多久？为了让投资者对影响程度、广度和波及时长有更好的理解，我们对上世纪90年代以来较为典型的局部冲突、特别是涉及到主要大国如美国和俄罗斯时的全球市场和资产表现进行了对比并梳理出以下一些规律，例如2001年911事件和随后的阿富汗战争；2003年伊拉克战争；2014年由克里米亚危机引发的俄罗斯与乌克兰间的冲突；2014美国军事介入叙利亚内战；2017年美国空袭叙利亚；2017年朝鲜半岛危机；2020年1月美国空袭伊朗等。►首先，无一例外的是，地缘冲突爆发在短期都将打压风险偏好，导致避险资产受益而风险资产受损。从上述我们总结的历史经验来看，冲突发生时（一般是一周到一个月之内），全球股市或长或短都会受到一些负面冲击而下跌；避险资产如债券、黄金和日元则相对受益。►其次，不同市场之间，除了2014年的克里米亚危机使得欧洲首当其冲，整体来看新兴市场受到的影响均要大于发达市场，主要由于新兴市场相比发达市场而言具有更高的风险溢价。不过，当冲突过后，新兴市场的反弹修复力度也更为显著。►第三，从影响程度和波及时长来看，除非大幅超出预期且有蔓延到更大范围的风险，否则局部冲突对主要资产的影响不会特别显著且持续时间也相对比较短暂。上面提到的几个案例中，除了2001年911事件是因为美国直接受到袭击所以引发了更大范围内的恐慌（发达股市平均下跌~5%、新兴市场跌幅高达~10%）且对市场的影响时间也更长外，其他几次的影响时间都是以周度计，市场在此期间的跌幅通常在5%左右。►第四，从影响模式看，局部战争的冲击往往是脉冲式的，并不会完全改变原有趋势，因此危机和冲突过后，各类资产也会迅速反弹而修复失地。二、此次俄乌局势的“特殊性”：通过能源价格扰动通胀水平和货币紧缩预期从上文针对地缘冲突的一般性规律来看，如果此次俄乌局势紧张也只是局限在局部和短期的话，其影响可能也只是更多局限在短期的风险偏好上。但是，由于俄罗斯在主要资源品（如能源、天然气和部分农产品）的全球供应中扮演的重要角色（2021年，俄罗斯贡献了全球油、气出口总量的12%和21%；欧洲对俄罗斯的油气供给依赖度更高，2021年俄罗斯出口欧洲油气贸易量占全球出口至欧洲贸易量的29%和36%，俄罗斯向欧洲输送的管道气约占欧洲天然气总进口量的35%）。因此，如果因为此次地缘冲突导致后续制裁的话，可能由此引发部分资产品供给缺口的“连带损失”，而后者的影响可能远大于短期单纯因为风险偏好造成的冲击，主要传导路径为，1）供给溢价推升原油价格，进而影响通胀预期和紧缩路径。在局部库存相对较低、且疫情改善推动边境开放和出行需求的背景下，俄乌局势可能引发的“供应溢价”成为短期左右油价走势的关键变量。根据IEA统计，截止2021年末，全球每天约9800万桶的产量中，俄罗斯占比高达11%（1090万桶/天）。根据中金大宗商品组的测算，如果地缘风险演变为实际的供应冲击并假设俄罗斯石油供给减少200万桶/天以上，可能会使得石油市场从平衡转向短缺，油价可能因此出现30美元/桶的供应溢价，摸高120美元/桶（石油：“站在硬币”的两面）。在当前通胀偏高的背景下，这无疑会进一步推升表观通胀，并加大央行紧缩压力。从历史关系来看，油价与整体通胀有较高相关性，尤其是CPI中的能源价格更是高度同步（1990年以来相关性系数达93%）。能源价格在美国CPI中权重约为7.4%，若油价上冲而其他价格保持不变，我们测算或额外抬升美国CPI月环比0.1个百分点，这无疑会加大市场对于美联储紧缩的担忧。与此同时，由于油价与债券利率中的通胀预期（breakeven）也高度相关但存在2.7~2.8%的长沿，因此在当前水平（~2.4%）也可能由此带来长端美债利率的上行压力。2）北溪2号或进一步加重欧洲能源市场短缺。北溪天然气管道是一个离岸天然气管道，由Nord Stream AG负责营运，该项目包含1号、2号两条平行管道。北溪1号管道2011年5月铺设，并于同年11月投入使用，北溪2号已于2021年9月建设完毕，但尚未投入使用，目前仍在等待德国和欧洲相关部门审批。2021年四季度，寒冷天气叠加俄罗斯、欧洲和美国之间的地缘风险等因素对欧洲天然气市场造成了很大扰动。北溪2号管道审批暂停后，2021年12月18日，俄罗斯至欧洲三大天然气运输管道之一的亚马尔-欧洲管道输气量从250-300吉瓦时/日骤降至29吉瓦时/日，并于21日起调转输气方向。供给突发事件导致的供应风险溢价推升TTF天然气价格飙升31.5%至59.5美元/百万英热的历史高位，直到随后俄罗斯释放稳定供气信号后，价格才明显回落。中金大宗商品组表示，考虑到当前欧洲仍处取暖季且天然气库存也位于低位，偏紧的基本面或进一步放大俄罗斯天然气的供给冲击，因此地缘风险如果升温也会加剧欧洲能源市场短缺格局（简评饿、乌局势对大宗商品市场的潜在影响）。3）金融资产、外债和汇率的风险敞口。潜在的金融和出口制裁也会影响俄罗斯的财政收入，进而影响其汇率和外债偿付能力。截止2021年三季度，俄罗斯各部门整体外币计价负债占GDP比例为25%（非金融企业部门占比19%）。如若潜在的制裁出现，可能会导致俄罗斯经常账户顺差收窄，进而影响汇率走势和俄罗斯对外融资能力、甚至导致偿付风险。年初以来，伴随俄乌局势的持续升级，俄罗斯卢比兑美元贬值3.4%，俄罗斯主权债务CDS也跳升~60bp至2014年以来新高。三、如果事态升级，应该如何应对和避险？传统避险资产、波动率对冲、油价虽然我们认为依然可能是小概率事件，但如果事态升级甚至爆发更大规模冲突，投资者应该如何应对？传统避险资产以及此次可能受益于供给溢价的原油或能起到一定避险效果。不过，通胀预期和紧缩升温可能会使得国债的避险效果打一定折扣。避险资产的本质是与风险资产间的相关性很低甚至为负，这样可以达到当风险资产下跌时影响有限甚至上涨的效果。通过分析几类主要的避险资产与全球股市自2000年以来的相关性，我们发现，单纯从避险效果看，VIX指数>美国国债>日本国债>日元>黄金。因此，潜在的避险方式为：1）买入传统意义上的避险或防御性资产。传统避险资产如黄金和美日国债都可以作为一个较好对冲；此外，股票市场中的防御性板块，如食品饮料、家庭用品、公用事业及生物制药板块也可以在市场出现剧烈波动时起到一定的避险效果。不过，此次通胀预期和货币紧缩升温可能导致国债的避险效果打一定折扣。2）通过看多波动率VIX对冲。买入看多波动率产品来对冲组合风险敞口的主要逻辑是在风险爆发时，市场波动率往往会快速攀升。但这种方式的缺点在于一旦事态平息，波动率回落也会非常迅速；同时VIX是期权隐含波动率，故有时间价值耗损，因此获利后需要及时关闭头寸而不适合长期持有，否则反而会受其拖累。3）此次受益于供应溢价的原油也可能在事件升级时起到一定对冲效果。市场动态：俄乌地缘政治风险再度升温，美债利率冲高回落，防御板块领先►资产表现：大宗>债>股，股市普跌，防御板块领先本周周中，美联储公布了1月FOMC会议纪要。纪要显示，纪要释放了可能3月加息的信号，但并没有暗示是否可能3月加速加息，也未提及缩表的时点等更多细节，CME期货市场隐含3月加息50bp概率回落至65%左右。临近周末，俄乌地缘政治局势再度升温，拜登再次警告俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的可能性“非常高”，美股受挫、美债利率高位回落、黄金价格一度突破1900美元/盎司。整体看，过去一周，美元计价下，大宗>债>股；天然气、创业板、巴西里尔领涨，比特币、俄罗斯及德国股市领跌。板块方面，标普500指数中家庭用品、运输、食品烟草领涨，能源、软件与服务、媒体领跌。利率方面，10年美债利率冲高后回落至1.93%，下降约1个基点，其中实际利率抬升约3bp，通胀预期回落约4bp。►情绪仓位：VIX临近周末攀升，黄金超买，短端国债空头激增过去一周，VIX指数周初抬升后回落，临近周末再度抬升，看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）有所抬升。主要市场股市超买程度均回落；美债超卖缓解，黄金抬升至超买，布油回落至合理区间。仓位方面，美股及美元投机性净多头仓位增加，黄金净空头仓位增加，10年和2年美债净空头仓位均增加，2年美债净空头仓位增加幅度更为明显。►资金流向：股市流入放缓，债市加速流出过去一周，股票型基金流入放缓，债券型和货币市场基金加速流出。分市场看，股市方面，新兴市场继续流入，欧洲、美国转为流出，日本加速流出。►基本面与政策：美国1月PPI及零售均超预期美国方面，1月成屋销售超预期抬升，1月PPI环比超预期。1月新屋开工163.8万套，低于前值的170.8万套和预期的169.5万套。成屋销售650万套，高于前值的609万套和预期的610万套。1月美国PPI环比1%，高于前值（0.4%）和预期（0.5%），能源和食品价格仍是最大驱动因素，商品成本增速快于服务业。Omicron对需求冲击有限，1月美国零售环比超预期抬升。1月美国零售销售环比3.8%，高于前值的-2.5%和预期的2%，为2021年3月以来最大增幅。虽然这一回升不排除又有基数效应（12月环比下降2.5%），但1月环比增长使得绝对规模回到Omicron爆发前，表明对需求冲击有限。结构性上由于1月美国病例仍处于高位，部分受到疫情扰动较大的板块如食品饮料服务修复相对较慢（环比-0.9%，前值-0.6%）。此外，1月工业生产也明显转正。欧洲方面，英国1月CPI同比再创新高。英国1月CPI同比达5.5%，高于前值和预期的5.4%，创近30年以来新高。分项来看，最大贡献来自服装鞋类、家具和家用设备等。日本方面，四季度GDP年化环比增速大幅抬升但不及预期。日本四季度实际GDP年化季环比为5.4%，高于前值的-2.7%，但低于预期的6%。日本1月CPI（除生鲜食品）同比0.2%，低于前值的0.5%和预期（0.3%）。►市场估值：略低于增长和流动性模型合理水平当前标普500的21.4倍静态P/E略低于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~21.7倍）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007829815,"gmtCreate":1642830630883,"gmtModify":1676533751208,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007829815","repostId":"1166623001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166623001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642816721,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166623001?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-22 09:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Netflix's stock price has been stagnant for a long time, and the new year brings immense pressure.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166623001","media":"智通财经网","summary":"王者垂暮？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Shiye</p><p>After the US stock market closed on January 20, Eastern Time, Netflix released its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>The financial report shows that the company's Q4 revenue was $7.709 billion, exceeding market expectations of $7.708 billion and $6.644 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%. Net income was $607 million, compared to market expectations of $374 million and $542 million in the same period last year, representing a year-over-year increase of 12%. Diluted earnings per share were $1.33, compared to market expectations of $0.82 and $1.19 in the same period last year.</p><p>In addition, the company's revenue for the whole of 2021 reached approximately 29.7 billion yuan, and its net profit for the whole year was 5.1 billion yuan. Full-year diluted earnings per share were $11.24, exceeding market expectations of $10.7.</p><p>At first glance, Netflix's performance last year was quite impressive, with many indicators exceeding market expectations. However, after the earnings report was released, Netflix's stock price plummeted by 20% in after-hours trading. In fact, Netflix's stock price has been under pressure recently, especially since the beginning of 2022, when it has fallen by more than 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24256afc889a3655d5af9c4fa34a222c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Going back further, in 2021, Netflix successfully gained a large number of \"fans\" by launching a series of popular movies and TV series such as \"Squid Game\", which also boosted its performance, and its stock price rose by 11% throughout the year. However, considering that the S&P 500 rose 28% in 2021 and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, also rose 23% in 2021, Netflix's stock performance in 2021 was not \"passable\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7aa4f4375b8cfc44ce36691411ef0ab\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix's stock price rose less than the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a813e6a701f73928c04dbbbcd08313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix's stock price rose less than the Nasdaq.</p><p>There are various reasons behind the decline in the company's stock price, but for Netflix, the main reason affecting its stock price is the number of subscribers.</p><p><b>The Tragedy of Subscription</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix saw a net increase of 8.28 million paid streaming subscribers worldwide, exceeding market expectations of 8.13 million. By the end of 2021, Netflix had a total of 221.84 million paid streaming subscribers worldwide. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2022, Netflix expects its paying streaming subscribers to increase by 2.5 million, down from 4 million in the same period last year and far below the market expectation of an increase of 6.26 million.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, although Netflix's net increase in subscribers exceeded market expectations of 8.13 million, it should be noted that in the third-quarter financial report, management had optimistically predicted that the company would add 8.5 million new users in the fourth quarter. Zhitong Finance APP noted that the decline in subscription growth is also reflected in the annualized rate of subscriber growth. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Netflix's subscriber growth rate reached an astonishing 21.9%. However, after entering 2021, the growth rate dropped from double digits to single digits. In the latest guidance provided by management for the first quarter, its user growth rate was only 8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842a699d0a8524eb18749294b2466784\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>Some have argued that as the COVID-19 pandemic gradually subsides, people's demand for home entertainment will decrease, which could potentially impact Netflix. During the Q3 earnings call, Netflix executives stated that the company's subscriber numbers had weathered the \"fluctuations\" during the COVID-19 pandemic and were slowly returning to \"normal\" levels. Therefore, perhaps it was the COVID-19 pandemic that pushed Netflix to a level that did not belong to it, and as management began to realize that high growth was unsustainable, it gave relatively conservative guidance.</p><p><b>Operating profit margin</b><b>Below the \"3% growth line\"</b></p><p>A key factor in the market's previous bullish outlook on Netflix's stock price was that, despite considering quarterly fluctuations, its overall profitability indicators would continue to expand over time.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix's operating profit margin was 8%, higher than the company's forecast guidance of 6.5%, but still significantly lower than the 14% in the same period last year. The operating profit margin for the whole of 2021 still reached 20.9%, which was above the company's previous expected range of 20%.</p><p>Although the company's overall revenue maintained rapid growth in the fourth quarter, operating income was only 632 million yuan, a 34% decrease compared to the same period in 2020 and a 64% decrease compared to the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa99576b0c290d8963c855648f68057\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>It should be said that the company's management had already taken precautions against this low operating profit margin. At the previous meeting, management attributed the decrease in operating profit margin to Netflix's decision to broadcast its backlogged program content in the fourth quarter, which led to a significant amortization of the company's program content assets. Netflix also mentioned the above reasons again in this financial report. In the fourth quarter, amortization of content assets reached $3.74 billion, the largest amortization in nearly two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd56ee165655765c5314d17c002d12e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>In addition, Netflix predicts that the company's operating revenue for the first quarter of this year will be $1.765 billion, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%. This guidance represents a slight decrease compared to the performance in the first quarter of last year. Meanwhile, the company expects its operating profit margin in 2022 to fail to achieve the previously promised 3% annual growth rate (i.e., the operating profit margin should have reached 22% this year, but the company's guidance range is 19-20%). Management attributed the decline in expected profit margins more to exchange rate fluctuations than to lower revenue levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1eb3366bf88da0f6562637c86008ce\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Will Netflix's operating profit margin growth fall below the \"3% growth line\"?</p><p><b>Fierce competition in streaming media</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e476061a5b8f0924ec6c2eeaba30fd\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Unit: Million</p><p>Data source: Financial reports of major companies</p><p>Note: This is the number of subscribers at the end of each quarter. Discovery+ was not released until after 2021, so previous data is not included in the statistics.</p><p>In the past, regarding market competition, Netflix has typically stated that the company faces competitors from different fields, but other companies' streaming services do not pose a significant threat to it. Netflix has consistently maintained that streaming viewing time has not yet reached the desired level. However, in Netflix's latest letter to shareholders this quarter, one sentence stood out particularly: \"While intensified competition may affect our profit margin growth...\" Some analysts believe this is strong evidence that Netflix acknowledges fierce competition: streaming competition is affecting its user growth.</p><p>In terms of subscribers, Disney+ has emerged as a dark horse. Although the latest data will not be released until the financial results are released in February, based on past information, as of the third quarter of 2021, Disney+ had more than 118 million paying subscribers worldwide. The streaming service added 2.1 million subscribers in the third quarter and 44.4 million subscribers in the past 12 months. Disney has also raised its user forecast for 2024 from the initial range of 60 million to 90 million to 230 million to 260 million.</p><p>Besides Disney+, the momentum of other competitors should not be underestimated. In May of last year, AT&T agreed to merge its subsidiary WarnerMedia with media giant Discovery Inc. to strengthen its competitiveness in the streaming market. Reports indicate that in addition to renaming Discovery to Warner Bros. Discovery, the new team also intends to merge HBO Max and Discovery+ into a single platform.</p><p>On the one hand, HBO MAX itself has a certain user base. It is understood that by the end of 2021, HBO and HBO Max had approximately 73.8 million subscribers, placing them among the top in the highly competitive streaming market. Last October, AT&T predicted that its total number of subscribers would increase to 73 million by the end of the year, so the actual number this time exceeded the company's previous forecast, putting it AT the forefront of the highly competitive streaming market. And in launching including The Sex Lives of College Girls and Sex and The City Following the release of sequels to popular series, HBO Max saw a significant increase in subscriber numbers in the fourth quarter.</p><p>On the other hand, thanks to the successful launch of Discovery+ in 2021, the company's streaming service saw its subscribers surge to 20 million in just three quarters. After the merger, it is believed that the synergy will bring more benefits and more subscriptions to the company.</p><p>While Netflix's subscription growth may not be as outstanding as that of some of its streaming peers, its massive user base has allowed it to barely hold the top spot in the streaming industry. Zhitong Finance APP previously reported that in the relatively strong third quarter, driven by the hit TV series \"Squid Game,\" the number of new users reached 4.38 million, exceeding previous expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4efc8ce5d6ac5bec8417523c62ce4c6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source ：Nielsen research</p><p>In a fiercely competitive market, Netflix faces competition not only from its streaming peers, but also from cable television, broadcast television, and other fields such as video games.</p><p>In fact, according to the survey, in November, the Thanksgiving holiday and increased rest time encouraged consumers to spend 5% more time watching television programs each week. It is worth noting that the increased time away from school gives students the opportunity to spend time on video games (including in the “Other” category) rather than watching content on Disney+.</p><p>Although radio and television market share declined compared to 10 months ago, mainly due to declining viewership ratings for general TV dramas and sitcoms, sports programming remained strong, with viewership rising by 7% even without the World Series.</p><p>In streaming, Disney+ benefited from a nearly 20% increase in viewing time that month, with its market share rising by 1% compared to October.</p><p>There are two main factors driving this growth: increased movie viewing time for the platform's main users (children), and the release of new movies \"Shangqi\" and \"Jungle Boat\" by Disney+ Day that month.</p><p>In addition, Amazon's Prime Video's total market share remained at 2%, but total viewing time on the platform still increased by 8% compared to October.</p><p>Netflix's overall market share remained relatively stable at 7% in October and November, a 1% increase from 6% in September. In the fluid industry, Netflix's biggest challenge comes from Youtube, which is closely following Netflix in terms of overall market share (6%). Of course, HULU is also a competitor not to be underestimated, as its high cost-performance ratio is increasingly favored by audiences.</p><p>In terms of pricing, Netflix has consistently maintained a high position in the industry. In 2022, Netflix announced an increase in its subscription prices in the United States and Canada. In the United States, the basic account fee increased from $8.99 to $9.99 per month, the standard account fee increased from $13.99 to $15.49 per month, and the premium account fee increased from $17.99 to $19.99 per month. In Canada, the standard account fee increased from CAD 14.99 to CAD 16.49, the premium account fee increased by CAD 2 to CAD 20.99, and the basic account fee remained unchanged at CAD 9.99. If competition does begin to erode some of the growth in subscribers, then price increases could increase the risk of customer churn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91fff80dee293a51bff366a7c25e51fe\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The \"trump card\" of original film series is still in hand.</b></p><p>In 2021, Netflix launched a series of exciting programs. According to statistics from Google's most searched TV series list, six of the top 10 most searched TV series are original Netflix series. Among them, the well-known \"Squid Game\" ranked first, while another Netflix series, \"Bridgerton,\" ranked second.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2e1b6e4b7889ecf041401c63a996f1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Google</p><p>The hit TV series \"Squid Game\" became an instant global sensation upon its release. The series was launched at the end of the third quarter and garnered 1.65 billion hours of viewership in the first four weeks of the fourth quarter, setting a new record for Netflix's highest-ever viewership. Meanwhile, the management confirmed that \"Squid Game\" will launch a second season. Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said, \"The Squid Game universe has just begun!\" In addition, with the popularity of Squid Game, Netflix has also launched a series of merchandise related to the series, such as the sportswear worn by the contestants in Squid Game.</p><p>in December, Netflix released a series of new sequels: The Witcher, You, Emily in Paris, Cobra Kai, and Maid.</p><p>In addition, the Spanish TV series \"Banknote House,\" one of the most successful foreign-language TV series in Netflix's history, came to a perfect conclusion in the fourth quarter, having garnered a total of 6.7 billion hours of airtime since its first season aired. Meanwhile, Netflix is intending to expand the \"Banknote House\" universe and will launch a Korean version of \"Banknote House\" later this year.</p><p>In 2022, Netflix will continue to focus on original series and launch a series of new original series. In addition, sequels to popular IP series such as \"Stranger Things\" and \"Bridgeton\" will also be released this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d76dca983c7803be3c4b382f8a194c\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Investment banks that \"seize the opportunity\"</b></p><p>Prior to Netflix's earnings report, nearly 40 institutions gave Netflix an \"overweight\" rating.</p><p>After Netflix released its financial report, KeyBanc was the first to downgrade its rating on Netflix from \"overweight\" to \"hold\". Just before the January earnings report was released, the agency reiterated its \"overweight\" rating on Netflix. Currently, the bank's analysts believe that the stock has almost no growth drivers.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs analysts gave Netflix a \"neutral\" investment rating. The bank's analysts believe that the stock has underperformed over the past 18 months, and the market remains debatable about how the company's growth rate would be under normal post-pandemic conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41651b5eb31afb1cbb7f7b4ad9a4c737\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Institutional ratings and target prices for Netflix over the past three months</p><p>According to relevant statistics, in the past three months, the average price target for Netflix for the next year was $535.83, the highest was $800, and the lowest was $342.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82bf43c7d2250b760d4b4e27041c6ef5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Target price range</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Netflix's management described its performance as \"good business conditions, high user retention rate, decreased user churn rate, and increased viewership.\" However, judging from various data, it is an indisputable fact that Netflix is facing increasingly fierce competition in the streaming market. As the COVID-19 pandemic subsides and people's lives return to normal, the range within which Netflix's user growth will ultimately \"normalize\" is a key factor for all investors and an important factor determining its stock price trend.</p><p>In addition, Netflix did not conduct any share buybacks in the fourth quarter. According to its financial report, Netflix will use some of its cash to acquire Roald Dahl Stories. Whether Netflix can bring new growth to the gaming industry in the new year after it officially announced its entry into the gaming industry last year is another key topic of market attention.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix's stock price has been stagnant for a long time, and the new year brings immense pressure.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix's stock price has been stagnant for a long time, and the new year brings immense pressure.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-22 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Shiye</p><p>After the US stock market closed on January 20, Eastern Time, Netflix released its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>The financial report shows that the company's Q4 revenue was $7.709 billion, exceeding market expectations of $7.708 billion and $6.644 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%. Net income was $607 million, compared to market expectations of $374 million and $542 million in the same period last year, representing a year-over-year increase of 12%. Diluted earnings per share were $1.33, compared to market expectations of $0.82 and $1.19 in the same period last year.</p><p>In addition, the company's revenue for the whole of 2021 reached approximately 29.7 billion yuan, and its net profit for the whole year was 5.1 billion yuan. Full-year diluted earnings per share were $11.24, exceeding market expectations of $10.7.</p><p>At first glance, Netflix's performance last year was quite impressive, with many indicators exceeding market expectations. However, after the earnings report was released, Netflix's stock price plummeted by 20% in after-hours trading. In fact, Netflix's stock price has been under pressure recently, especially since the beginning of 2022, when it has fallen by more than 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24256afc889a3655d5af9c4fa34a222c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Going back further, in 2021, Netflix successfully gained a large number of \"fans\" by launching a series of popular movies and TV series such as \"Squid Game\", which also boosted its performance, and its stock price rose by 11% throughout the year. However, considering that the S&P 500 rose 28% in 2021 and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, also rose 23% in 2021, Netflix's stock performance in 2021 was not \"passable\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7aa4f4375b8cfc44ce36691411ef0ab\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix's stock price rose less than the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a813e6a701f73928c04dbbbcd08313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix's stock price rose less than the Nasdaq.</p><p>There are various reasons behind the decline in the company's stock price, but for Netflix, the main reason affecting its stock price is the number of subscribers.</p><p><b>The Tragedy of Subscription</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix saw a net increase of 8.28 million paid streaming subscribers worldwide, exceeding market expectations of 8.13 million. By the end of 2021, Netflix had a total of 221.84 million paid streaming subscribers worldwide. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2022, Netflix expects its paying streaming subscribers to increase by 2.5 million, down from 4 million in the same period last year and far below the market expectation of an increase of 6.26 million.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, although Netflix's net increase in subscribers exceeded market expectations of 8.13 million, it should be noted that in the third-quarter financial report, management had optimistically predicted that the company would add 8.5 million new users in the fourth quarter. Zhitong Finance APP noted that the decline in subscription growth is also reflected in the annualized rate of subscriber growth. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Netflix's subscriber growth rate reached an astonishing 21.9%. However, after entering 2021, the growth rate dropped from double digits to single digits. In the latest guidance provided by management for the first quarter, its user growth rate was only 8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842a699d0a8524eb18749294b2466784\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>Some have argued that as the COVID-19 pandemic gradually subsides, people's demand for home entertainment will decrease, which could potentially impact Netflix. During the Q3 earnings call, Netflix executives stated that the company's subscriber numbers had weathered the \"fluctuations\" during the COVID-19 pandemic and were slowly returning to \"normal\" levels. Therefore, perhaps it was the COVID-19 pandemic that pushed Netflix to a level that did not belong to it, and as management began to realize that high growth was unsustainable, it gave relatively conservative guidance.</p><p><b>Operating profit margin</b><b>Below the \"3% growth line\"</b></p><p>A key factor in the market's previous bullish outlook on Netflix's stock price was that, despite considering quarterly fluctuations, its overall profitability indicators would continue to expand over time.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix's operating profit margin was 8%, higher than the company's forecast guidance of 6.5%, but still significantly lower than the 14% in the same period last year. The operating profit margin for the whole of 2021 still reached 20.9%, which was above the company's previous expected range of 20%.</p><p>Although the company's overall revenue maintained rapid growth in the fourth quarter, operating income was only 632 million yuan, a 34% decrease compared to the same period in 2020 and a 64% decrease compared to the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa99576b0c290d8963c855648f68057\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>It should be said that the company's management had already taken precautions against this low operating profit margin. At the previous meeting, management attributed the decrease in operating profit margin to Netflix's decision to broadcast its backlogged program content in the fourth quarter, which led to a significant amortization of the company's program content assets. Netflix also mentioned the above reasons again in this financial report. In the fourth quarter, amortization of content assets reached $3.74 billion, the largest amortization in nearly two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd56ee165655765c5314d17c002d12e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>In addition, Netflix predicts that the company's operating revenue for the first quarter of this year will be $1.765 billion, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%. This guidance represents a slight decrease compared to the performance in the first quarter of last year. Meanwhile, the company expects its operating profit margin in 2022 to fail to achieve the previously promised 3% annual growth rate (i.e., the operating profit margin should have reached 22% this year, but the company's guidance range is 19-20%). Management attributed the decline in expected profit margins more to exchange rate fluctuations than to lower revenue levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1eb3366bf88da0f6562637c86008ce\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Will Netflix's operating profit margin growth fall below the \"3% growth line\"?</p><p><b>Fierce competition in streaming media</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e476061a5b8f0924ec6c2eeaba30fd\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Unit: Million</p><p>Data source: Financial reports of major companies</p><p>Note: This is the number of subscribers at the end of each quarter. Discovery+ was not released until after 2021, so previous data is not included in the statistics.</p><p>In the past, regarding market competition, Netflix has typically stated that the company faces competitors from different fields, but other companies' streaming services do not pose a significant threat to it. Netflix has consistently maintained that streaming viewing time has not yet reached the desired level. However, in Netflix's latest letter to shareholders this quarter, one sentence stood out particularly: \"While intensified competition may affect our profit margin growth...\" Some analysts believe this is strong evidence that Netflix acknowledges fierce competition: streaming competition is affecting its user growth.</p><p>In terms of subscribers, Disney+ has emerged as a dark horse. Although the latest data will not be released until the financial results are released in February, based on past information, as of the third quarter of 2021, Disney+ had more than 118 million paying subscribers worldwide. The streaming service added 2.1 million subscribers in the third quarter and 44.4 million subscribers in the past 12 months. Disney has also raised its user forecast for 2024 from the initial range of 60 million to 90 million to 230 million to 260 million.</p><p>Besides Disney+, the momentum of other competitors should not be underestimated. In May of last year, AT&T agreed to merge its subsidiary WarnerMedia with media giant Discovery Inc. to strengthen its competitiveness in the streaming market. Reports indicate that in addition to renaming Discovery to Warner Bros. Discovery, the new team also intends to merge HBO Max and Discovery+ into a single platform.</p><p>On the one hand, HBO MAX itself has a certain user base. It is understood that by the end of 2021, HBO and HBO Max had approximately 73.8 million subscribers, placing them among the top in the highly competitive streaming market. Last October, AT&T predicted that its total number of subscribers would increase to 73 million by the end of the year, so the actual number this time exceeded the company's previous forecast, putting it AT the forefront of the highly competitive streaming market. And in launching including The Sex Lives of College Girls and Sex and The City Following the release of sequels to popular series, HBO Max saw a significant increase in subscriber numbers in the fourth quarter.</p><p>On the other hand, thanks to the successful launch of Discovery+ in 2021, the company's streaming service saw its subscribers surge to 20 million in just three quarters. After the merger, it is believed that the synergy will bring more benefits and more subscriptions to the company.</p><p>While Netflix's subscription growth may not be as outstanding as that of some of its streaming peers, its massive user base has allowed it to barely hold the top spot in the streaming industry. Zhitong Finance APP previously reported that in the relatively strong third quarter, driven by the hit TV series \"Squid Game,\" the number of new users reached 4.38 million, exceeding previous expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4efc8ce5d6ac5bec8417523c62ce4c6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source ：Nielsen research</p><p>In a fiercely competitive market, Netflix faces competition not only from its streaming peers, but also from cable television, broadcast television, and other fields such as video games.</p><p>In fact, according to the survey, in November, the Thanksgiving holiday and increased rest time encouraged consumers to spend 5% more time watching television programs each week. It is worth noting that the increased time away from school gives students the opportunity to spend time on video games (including in the “Other” category) rather than watching content on Disney+.</p><p>Although radio and television market share declined compared to 10 months ago, mainly due to declining viewership ratings for general TV dramas and sitcoms, sports programming remained strong, with viewership rising by 7% even without the World Series.</p><p>In streaming, Disney+ benefited from a nearly 20% increase in viewing time that month, with its market share rising by 1% compared to October.</p><p>There are two main factors driving this growth: increased movie viewing time for the platform's main users (children), and the release of new movies \"Shangqi\" and \"Jungle Boat\" by Disney+ Day that month.</p><p>In addition, Amazon's Prime Video's total market share remained at 2%, but total viewing time on the platform still increased by 8% compared to October.</p><p>Netflix's overall market share remained relatively stable at 7% in October and November, a 1% increase from 6% in September. In the fluid industry, Netflix's biggest challenge comes from Youtube, which is closely following Netflix in terms of overall market share (6%). Of course, HULU is also a competitor not to be underestimated, as its high cost-performance ratio is increasingly favored by audiences.</p><p>In terms of pricing, Netflix has consistently maintained a high position in the industry. In 2022, Netflix announced an increase in its subscription prices in the United States and Canada. In the United States, the basic account fee increased from $8.99 to $9.99 per month, the standard account fee increased from $13.99 to $15.49 per month, and the premium account fee increased from $17.99 to $19.99 per month. In Canada, the standard account fee increased from CAD 14.99 to CAD 16.49, the premium account fee increased by CAD 2 to CAD 20.99, and the basic account fee remained unchanged at CAD 9.99. If competition does begin to erode some of the growth in subscribers, then price increases could increase the risk of customer churn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91fff80dee293a51bff366a7c25e51fe\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The \"trump card\" of original film series is still in hand.</b></p><p>In 2021, Netflix launched a series of exciting programs. According to statistics from Google's most searched TV series list, six of the top 10 most searched TV series are original Netflix series. Among them, the well-known \"Squid Game\" ranked first, while another Netflix series, \"Bridgerton,\" ranked second.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2e1b6e4b7889ecf041401c63a996f1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Google</p><p>The hit TV series \"Squid Game\" became an instant global sensation upon its release. The series was launched at the end of the third quarter and garnered 1.65 billion hours of viewership in the first four weeks of the fourth quarter, setting a new record for Netflix's highest-ever viewership. Meanwhile, the management confirmed that \"Squid Game\" will launch a second season. Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said, \"The Squid Game universe has just begun!\" In addition, with the popularity of Squid Game, Netflix has also launched a series of merchandise related to the series, such as the sportswear worn by the contestants in Squid Game.</p><p>in December, Netflix released a series of new sequels: The Witcher, You, Emily in Paris, Cobra Kai, and Maid.</p><p>In addition, the Spanish TV series \"Banknote House,\" one of the most successful foreign-language TV series in Netflix's history, came to a perfect conclusion in the fourth quarter, having garnered a total of 6.7 billion hours of airtime since its first season aired. Meanwhile, Netflix is intending to expand the \"Banknote House\" universe and will launch a Korean version of \"Banknote House\" later this year.</p><p>In 2022, Netflix will continue to focus on original series and launch a series of new original series. In addition, sequels to popular IP series such as \"Stranger Things\" and \"Bridgeton\" will also be released this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d76dca983c7803be3c4b382f8a194c\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Investment banks that \"seize the opportunity\"</b></p><p>Prior to Netflix's earnings report, nearly 40 institutions gave Netflix an \"overweight\" rating.</p><p>After Netflix released its financial report, KeyBanc was the first to downgrade its rating on Netflix from \"overweight\" to \"hold\". Just before the January earnings report was released, the agency reiterated its \"overweight\" rating on Netflix. Currently, the bank's analysts believe that the stock has almost no growth drivers.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs analysts gave Netflix a \"neutral\" investment rating. The bank's analysts believe that the stock has underperformed over the past 18 months, and the market remains debatable about how the company's growth rate would be under normal post-pandemic conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41651b5eb31afb1cbb7f7b4ad9a4c737\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Institutional ratings and target prices for Netflix over the past three months</p><p>According to relevant statistics, in the past three months, the average price target for Netflix for the next year was $535.83, the highest was $800, and the lowest was $342.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82bf43c7d2250b760d4b4e27041c6ef5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Target price range</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Netflix's management described its performance as \"good business conditions, high user retention rate, decreased user churn rate, and increased viewership.\" However, judging from various data, it is an indisputable fact that Netflix is facing increasingly fierce competition in the streaming market. As the COVID-19 pandemic subsides and people's lives return to normal, the range within which Netflix's user growth will ultimately \"normalize\" is a key factor for all investors and an important factor determining its stock price trend.</p><p>In addition, Netflix did not conduct any share buybacks in the fourth quarter. According to its financial report, Netflix will use some of its cash to acquire Roald Dahl Stories. Whether Netflix can bring new growth to the gaming industry in the new year after it officially announced its entry into the gaming industry last year is another key topic of market attention.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/646079.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa6212aa97fcee15e91e74f631de4bf","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/646079.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1166623001","content_text":"作者： 陈诗烨美东时间1月20日美股盘后，奈飞公布了2021年第四季度财报。财报显示，该公司Q4营收77.09亿美元，市场预期77.08亿美元，上年同期为66.44亿美元，同比增长16%;净利润为6.07亿美元，市场预期3.74亿美元，上年同期为5.42亿美元，同比增长12%;摊薄后每股收益1.33美元，市场预期0.82美元，上年同期1.19美元。此外，该公司2021年全年营收达到约297亿，全年净利润为51亿。全年摊薄后每股收益为11.24美元，超过市场预期值10.7美元。乍看之下，奈飞去年的业绩表现可谓相当亮眼，多项指标都超过市场的预期。然而，在财报公布后，奈飞的盘后股价一路狂泻，暴跌20%。事实上，在近期，奈飞股价都一路承压，特别是进入到2022年以来，该公司股价已下跌超过15%以上。再往上追溯，在2021年，奈飞通过推出《鱿鱼游戏》等一系列热门的影视剧成功收获了一大批“粉丝”，业绩也因此受益得到了一定的提振，股价全年上涨了11%。但考虑到标普500指数在21年全年涨幅达到28%，且以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数全年涨幅也达到23%的背景下，奈飞的股票在2021年里的表现并不“及格”。奈飞股价涨幅不及标普500奈飞股价涨幅不及纳指公司股价下跌的背后，有着各式各样的原因，但对奈飞来说，影响其股价的最主要原因就是订阅用户量。订阅数之殇奈飞在第四季度中，全球流媒体付费订阅用户人数净增828万，市场预期为813万。到2021年末时，奈飞在全球拥有的流媒体付费用户总数达2.2184亿。展望2022年第一季度，奈飞预计流媒体付费用户将增加250万，该数值低于去年同期的400万，且远远低于市场预期的增加626万。在四季度中，虽然奈飞订阅数的净增量打破市场预期的813万，但要知道，在第三季度的财报中，管理层曾乐观预计公司在第四季度的新增用户将达到850万。智通财经APP注意到，订阅增速的下降还反映在用户数增长年率中，在2020年第四季度时，奈飞的订阅用户数增长率达到惊人的21.9%，然而进入到2021年后，增长率已经较早时的两位数下降到个位数。而在管理层给出的第一季度最新指引中，其用户数增长年率仅为8%，较去年同期下降了5.6个百分点。数据来源：奈飞财报曾有观点认为，随着新冠疫情的慢慢退却，人们对于居家娱乐的需求会出现下降，这很可能会对奈飞构成影响。在Q3的财报业绩会议中，奈飞的高管们就曾表示，该公司的订阅者数量已经度过了新冠疫情时的“波动期”，正慢慢恢复到“正常”水平。因此，或许正是新冠疫情将奈飞推到本不属于自己的高度，而随着管理层开始意识到高增长不可持续后，便给出了相对保守的指引。营运利润率恐跌破“3%增长线”市场此前看好奈飞股价的一个重要因素是：尽管考虑到季间会出现波动，但其总体的盈利能力指标会随着时间的推移而不断扩大。第四季度中，奈飞的营运利润率为8%，高于公司的预测指引6.5%，但相较前年同期的14%，仍有不少的差距。2021全年的营运利润率依然达到20.9%，位于公司此前的预期区间--20%以上。虽然在第四季度中，公司整体营收仍保持较快的速度增长，但营运收入仅有6.32亿，较2020年同期下降34%，较第三季度下降了64%。数据来源：奈飞财报应该说，公司管理层早已为此次较低营运利润率打过预防针，在前一次会议上，管理层将营运利润率的降低，归咎于奈飞将积压制作的节目内容放在第四季度中播出，这导致节目内容资产为公司带来了大笔的摊销。而在此次的财报上，奈飞也再次提及了上述的原因。在四季度，内容资产的摊销达到37.4亿美元，是近两年内摊销数额最大的一个季度。数据来源：奈飞财报此外，奈飞预测今年一季度公司的营运收入为17.65亿美元，营运利润率为22.3%。该指引相较去年一季度的表现来说，存在小幅度的下降。同时，公司预计2022年的营运利润率无法实现此前高喊的每年增长3%（即今年营运利润率本应该达22%，但公司给出的指引区间为19-20%）。管理层对于预期利润率的下降，将原因更多地归咎在汇率变动方面，而不是由于收入水平的降低。奈飞营运利润率增长将跌破“3%增长线”？激烈的流媒体竞争单位：百万数据来源：各大公司财报注：此为每季末的订阅用户数，Discovery+在2021年后才发行，因此之前的数据未进入统计过去，对于市场竞争，奈飞通常会表示，公司面临着来自不同领域的竞争对手，但其他公司的流媒体服务并不会对其构成太大威胁。奈飞一直坚持认为，流媒体的观看时长仍未达到该有的水平。但在本季奈飞最新的致股东信中，有一句话却显得特别碍眼：“虽然竞争加剧可能会影响我们的利润率增长...”，有分析认为，这是奈飞承认竞争激烈的有力证明：流媒体竞争正在影响其用户增长。在订阅用户方面，Disney+可谓是异军突起，虽然最新数据要到2月份的财报业绩公布时才会出炉，但从以往的信息来看，截至2021年的第三季度，Disney+已拥有超过 1.18 亿的全球付费用户。该流媒体服务在第三季度中增加了 210 万订阅用户，且在过去 12 个月内增加了 4440 万订阅用户。而对于2024年的用户数量预期，迪士尼也从起初的6000 万至 9000 万区间，提升至2.3 亿至 2.6 亿。除了Disney+外，其他同行的势头也不容小觑。在去年5月，AT&T就已同意将旗下华纳媒体（WarnerMedia）与媒体巨头Discovery Inc.合并，以加强在流媒体市场上的竞争力。有消息指新班底除了有意将Discovery易名为Warner Bros. Discovery 外，更有意将HBO Max 及Discovery+ 合并为同一平台。一方面，HBO MAX本身就有一定的用户基础。据了解，到2021年底，HBO和HBO Max的订阅用户已达到了约7380万，一举跻身于竞争激烈的流媒体市场前列。而在去年10月，AT&T预测用户总数到年底时将提高到7300万，因此此次实际数目超过了该公司此前的预测，使其跻身于竞争激烈的流媒体市场前列。而在推出包括The Sex Lives of College Girls和Sex and The City在内的热门剧集续集后，HBO Max在第四季度的订阅用户数量得到了明显提升。另一方面，受益于Discovery+在2021年的成功推出后，该公司流媒体服务的订阅用户仅用三个季度就猛增至2000万。在合并后，相信在协同作用的推动下，将为公司带来更多的利益以及更多的订阅量。虽然奈飞在订阅增速上可能并不如部分流媒体同行那么出众，但其自身庞大的用户基数，使其目前勉强坐稳流媒体行业的头把交椅。智通财经APP曾报道，在较为出色的第三季度中，受到热播剧集《鱿鱼游戏》的推动，新增用户数一举达到438万，并突破了此前的预期。数据来源：Nielsen research在激烈的市场中，奈飞不仅要面对来自流媒体同行的竞争，也要面对来自有线电视、广播电视和其他领域（如：电子游戏）的竞争。事实上，根据调查，在11月，感恩节假期以及休息时间的增多激励消费者每周多花5%的时间观看电视节目。值得注意的是，离校时间增多让学生有机会把花时间放在电子游戏(包括在“其他”类别中)何观看Disney+上的内容。虽然，广播电视的市场份额较10份月有所下降，这主要是因为一般的电视剧和情景喜剧的收视率下降，但体育节目收视率依然强劲，即使没有世界大赛，收视率也上升了7%。而在流媒体中，Disney+受益于该月有近20%的观影时间增长，市场份额较10月份上涨1%。推动这一增长的主要因素有两个:平台主要用户(小孩、儿童)的观影时间增多，以及Disney+ Day在该月发行了新的电影《尚气》和《丛林奇航》。此外，亚马逊的Prime Video的总市场份额仍维持在2%，但该平台上的总观影时间依然比10月份时增加了8%。而奈飞10月和11月的整体市场份额基本稳定在7%，相较9月时的6%有了1%的提升。在流体行业中，奈飞面临的最大挑战是来自于Youtube，后者在整体的市场份额上（6%）可谓紧咬着奈飞不放。当然HULU也是一位不容小觑的对手，后者高性价比正越来越受到观众的青睐。定价方面，奈飞一路都处于行业内较高的位置。而进入到2022年，奈飞宣布提高其在美国和加拿大地区的订阅价格。其中，美国的基础账户费用从每月8.99美元涨至9.99美元，标准账户费用从每月13.99美元涨至15.49美元，高级账户费用从每月17.99美元涨至19.99美元。加拿大的标准账户费用从14.99加元涨至16.49加元，高级帐户费用上涨2加元至20.99加元，基础账户费用保持不变，为9.99加元。而如果竞争真的开始侵蚀订阅用户的部分增长，那么价格上涨可能会增加客户流失的风险。原创影集这张“王牌”还在手在2021年里，奈飞推出了一系列精彩的节目内容。根据谷歌热门搜索榜单的统计，搜索次数排名前10的电视剧集中，有6部属于奈飞的原创剧集。其中，排名第一的就是广为人知的《鱿鱼游戏》，而奈飞的另一部剧集《布里奇顿》则名列第二。来源：谷歌热门影集《鱿鱼游戏》在推出后立刻火爆全球，该剧集是在第三季度末推出的，在第四季度的前四周，该剧集收获的观看时间达到16.5亿小时，创下奈飞有史以来最高的播放量。同时，管理层证实《鱿鱼游戏》将会推出第二季。奈飞联合首席执行官Ted Sarandos对此表示:“《鱿鱼游戏》宇宙才刚刚开启!”此外，随着《鱿鱼游戏》的热播，奈飞还推出了一系列该剧集的周边产品，如《鱿鱼游戏》中参赛者们身穿的运动服。在12月时，奈飞发布了一系列新的续作影集：《The Witcher》、《You》、《Emily in Paris》、《Cobra Kai》以及《Maid》。另外，作为奈飞史上最成功的外语电视剧之一--西班牙电视剧《纸钞屋》，在第四季度中完美落幕，该电视剧自第一季播出以来共收获67亿小时的播放时间。同时，奈飞正有意扩张《纸钞屋》宇宙，将在今年晚些时候推出韩国版的《纸钞屋》。而在2022年度中，奈飞将继续在原创剧集上下功夫，并推出一系列新的原创剧集系列。此外，“怪奇物语”和“布里奇顿”等热门IP剧集的续作也将在本年度内推出。“见风使舵”的投行们在奈飞财报公布前，有将近40家机构给予奈飞“增持”评级。而在奈飞公布财报后，KeyBanc就率先将奈飞评级由“增持”下调至“持有”。而在一月份财报公布前，该机构才刚刚重申其对奈飞的“增持”评级。目前，该行分析师认为，该股几乎没有什么增长的驱动因素。此外，高盛分析师给予奈飞“中性”的投资评级，该行分析师认为，该股在过去18个月里一直表现欠佳，市场对该公司在疫情后正常情况下的增长率会如何仍有争议。近三个月来机构关于奈飞的评级与目标价据相关统计，在过去3个月内，分析师发布对奈飞未来一年的目标价中，平均值为535.83美元，最高值为800美元，最低值342美元。目标价区间总结奈飞管理层用“业务状况良好，用户留存率很高，用户流失率下降，收视率上升”来评价本次的业绩，但从各类数据来看，奈飞在流媒体市场面临越发激烈的竞争是不争的事实。而随着新冠疫情的消退，人们生活回归正常，奈飞用户增速最终“正常化”在什么区间内，是所有投资者最为侧重的一个点，也是决定其股价走势的重要因素。另外，在四季度中，奈飞并没有回购的操作。根据财报，奈飞将部分现金用作收购Roald Dahl故事公司。而对于奈飞去年正式宣布进军游戏行业，能否在新的一年中为奈飞带来新的增长亦是市场关注的又一重点话题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995756045,"gmtCreate":1661523008392,"gmtModify":1676536534666,"author":{"id":"4087432942211250","authorId":"4087432942211250","name":"Jacklyn26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95551e4c569f9c33021b7609566a66e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087432942211250","idStr":"4087432942211250"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995756045","repostId":"1182117198","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182117198","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661517180,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182117198?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 20:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. PCE Inflation Index Drops 0.1% in July, Core up 0.1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182117198","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. PCE inflation index drops 0.1% in July, core up 0.1%; Consumer spending rises 0.1% in July, bel","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. PCE inflation index drops 0.1% in July, core up 0.1%; Consumer spending rises 0.1% in July, below forecast; Personal incomes climb 0.2% in July; The 12-month increase in PCE drops to 6.3% from 6.8%.</p><p>U.S. stock futures pare losses after PCE inflation report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b1d40026820c9047b6b10728392ea7\" tg-width=\"407\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. PCE Inflation Index Drops 0.1% in July, Core up 0.1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. PCE Inflation Index Drops 0.1% in July, Core up 0.1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-26 20:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. PCE inflation index drops 0.1% in July, core up 0.1%; Consumer spending rises 0.1% in July, below forecast; Personal incomes climb 0.2% in July; The 12-month increase in PCE drops to 6.3% from 6.8%.</p><p>U.S. stock futures pare losses after PCE inflation report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b1d40026820c9047b6b10728392ea7\" tg-width=\"407\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182117198","content_text":"U.S. PCE inflation index drops 0.1% in July, core up 0.1%; Consumer spending rises 0.1% in July, below forecast; Personal incomes climb 0.2% in July; The 12-month increase in PCE drops to 6.3% from 6.8%.U.S. stock futures pare losses after PCE inflation report.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}