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2021-07-06

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2021-07-04

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When Big Tech Stumbles, the Market Can Fall Hard. These 5 Funds Can Help.

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3 Best Video Game Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash

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GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report

2021-07-01

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2021-07-12

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Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.

2021-07-06

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5 Ultra-Popular Stocks to Avoid Like the Plague in July

2021-07-06

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2021-07-01

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5 Stocks To Watch For July 1, 2021

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Krispy Kreme IPO: What To Know About This Stock Before Buying

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days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.30","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.19","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches 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read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174854852","repostId":"2153981075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153981075","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627091190,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153981075?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Best Video Game Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153981075","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These industry leaders should prosper in the growing $175 billion interactive entertainment market.","content":"<p>The bulls in the market have been stomping on the bears for more than a year, but history shows that stock prices don't move up in a straight line. Market corrections are par for the course when investing in stocks, but that same history shows these downturns lay the foundation for great returns afterward.</p>\n<p>If you've been thinking about buying shares of a video game stock, the next market pullback would be a great buying opportunity. <b>Activision Blizzard</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ATVI), <b>Electronic Arts</b> (NASDAQ:EA), and <b>Tencent</b> (OTC:TCEHY) are cash-rich leaders in the burgeoning video game industry that can deliver market-beating returns over the long term. Let's find out a bit more about these three stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869325da30a6e698de7db7d34e33d93a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>1. Activision Blizzard</h2>\n<p>Activision Blizzard owns eight franchises that have achieved at least $1 billion in lifetime bookings.&nbsp;It's best known for making <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most-played first-person shooters on the market in <i>Call of Duty</i>. A $1,000 investment in Activision stock in 2003, right after the first <i>Call of Duty</i> title was released,&nbsp;would be worth nearly $30,000 today.</p>\n<p>The <i>Call of Duty</i> franchise continues to grow. It's included in the company's Activision segment, which reached a record 150 million monthly active users (MAUs) in the first quarter.&nbsp;With seven other major franchises under its umbrella, Activision Blizzard sees an opportunity to improve those titles to more than double its MAUs to 1 billion.</p>\n<p>Making big-budget video game titles does require investing in thousands of employees and can involve significant marketing expenses, but many other aspects of production are not as capital intensive when compared to other industries. This allows top game companies that can sell millions of copies of new releases to produce robust amounts of free cash flow. Over the past four quarters, Activision Blizzard generated $2.8 billion in free cash flow on $8.5 billion in revenue.</p>\n<p>It pays out less than a fifth of that free cash flow in dividends, bringing the current dividend yield to 0.52%. There's clearly potential for Activision to safely double or triple that yield by increasing the payout ratio over time.</p>\n<p>Activision Blizzard owns several franchises that each have a built-in base of millions of fans, including <i>World of Warcraft</i>, <i>Diablo</i>, and <i>Overwatch</i>. The company is well stocked with cash, with $9.3 billion on the balance sheet,&nbsp;which should provide plenty of capital to continue reinvesting for growth.</p>\n<h2>2. Electronic Arts</h2>\n<p>Electronic Arts is known for its EA Sports titles, most notably <i>Madden</i> and <i>FIFA</i>. EA added 42 million new players to its network during the pandemic. It&nbsp;has a total of 230 million players and viewers, but management is targeting 500 million over the next five years.</p>\n<p>Most importantly, EA has demonstrated the ability to bring out new hits. The free-to-play shooter <i>Apex Legends</i> launched in 2019&nbsp;and recently surpassed $1 billion in bookings.&nbsp;EA also revealed plans earlier this year to relaunch its previous <i>NCAA Football</i> franchise under the new title <i>EA Sports College Football</i>, which should be released within the next few years.</p>\n<p>EA's success in growing its sports business in recent years has left it with lots of cash to reinvest. It entered fiscal 2022 with $6.3 billion of cash and investments and has already put that to work.&nbsp;So far this year, EA has spent a combined $4.7 billion to buy Glu Mobile, Codemasters, and Playdemic.&nbsp;These studios bring their own game development prowess and popular titles to accelerate EA's&nbsp;expansion into mobile.</p>\n<p>In fiscal 2021, EA's free cash flow came to $1.8 billion on $5.6 billion of revenue. EA started paying a dividend within the last year,&nbsp;which signals management's confidence in its growth strategy. The quarterly dividend amounts to $0.17 per share, bringing the current dividend yield to 0.48%.&nbsp;The company's growing sports lineup and willingness to return capital to shareholders makes it a top video game stock to consider buying.</p>\n<h2>3. Tencent</h2>\n<p>Tencent is the largest video game company in the world by revenue and also operates the popular WeChat social media platform in China.&nbsp;It owns Riot Games,&nbsp;the operator of one of the top esports titles in the world in <i>League of Legends</i>. It also has ownership stakes in several other companies, including Epic Games and Activision Blizzard.</p>\n<p>Gaming makes up 29% of its annual revenue, with online advertising, fintech, and business services composing most of the balance. But gaming is Tencent's largest business segment. It's the diversity of revenue streams across fast-growing markets, including gaming and cloud services, that make it a stock worth keeping on your radar.</p>\n<p>Over the last four quarters, Tencent generated $18.5 billion in free cash flow.&nbsp;It has $39 billion of dry powder on the balance sheet,&nbsp;in addition to a portfolio of investees that was worth over $200 billion in the first quarter.&nbsp;That's a lot of firepower.</p>\n<p>Tencent compares the current state of the video game industry to the movie business in the 1930s,&nbsp;and it's investing to maintain its leadership status. Last year, management announced a deep pipeline of 40 new titles, including internally developed and licensed games in development.&nbsp;It's particularly focusing on where gamers are spending more time, which is with big-budget, immersive gaming experiences.</p>\n<p>\"The development speed, scale, range, and depth of information technology is much greater than the last Industrial Revolution,\" said Senior Vice President Steven Ma. \"This brings unimaginable opportunities for games and the space is almost limitless.\"</p>\n<p>However, investors should note the risks of investing in Chinese companies. Tencent has come under scrutiny by regulators that have cracked down on \"inappropriate\" content in the company's games,&nbsp;but Tencent has been able to navigate through these obstacles and deliver market-beating returns to investors. The stock price has fallen recently, which can be chalked up to regulatory issues and near-term investments in the business that will pressure profitability this year. But I would look at the recent drop in share price as a buying opportunity.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Best Video Game Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Best Video Game Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/best-video-game-stocks-buy-in-next-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The bulls in the market have been stomping on the bears for more than a year, but history shows that stock prices don't move up in a straight line. Market corrections are par for the course when ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/best-video-game-stocks-buy-in-next-market-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ATVI":"动视暴雪","EA":"艺电","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/best-video-game-stocks-buy-in-next-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153981075","content_text":"The bulls in the market have been stomping on the bears for more than a year, but history shows that stock prices don't move up in a straight line. Market corrections are par for the course when investing in stocks, but that same history shows these downturns lay the foundation for great returns afterward.\nIf you've been thinking about buying shares of a video game stock, the next market pullback would be a great buying opportunity. Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI), Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA), and Tencent (OTC:TCEHY) are cash-rich leaders in the burgeoning video game industry that can deliver market-beating returns over the long term. Let's find out a bit more about these three stocks.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n1. Activision Blizzard\nActivision Blizzard owns eight franchises that have achieved at least $1 billion in lifetime bookings. It's best known for making one of the most-played first-person shooters on the market in Call of Duty. A $1,000 investment in Activision stock in 2003, right after the first Call of Duty title was released, would be worth nearly $30,000 today.\nThe Call of Duty franchise continues to grow. It's included in the company's Activision segment, which reached a record 150 million monthly active users (MAUs) in the first quarter. With seven other major franchises under its umbrella, Activision Blizzard sees an opportunity to improve those titles to more than double its MAUs to 1 billion.\nMaking big-budget video game titles does require investing in thousands of employees and can involve significant marketing expenses, but many other aspects of production are not as capital intensive when compared to other industries. This allows top game companies that can sell millions of copies of new releases to produce robust amounts of free cash flow. Over the past four quarters, Activision Blizzard generated $2.8 billion in free cash flow on $8.5 billion in revenue.\nIt pays out less than a fifth of that free cash flow in dividends, bringing the current dividend yield to 0.52%. There's clearly potential for Activision to safely double or triple that yield by increasing the payout ratio over time.\nActivision Blizzard owns several franchises that each have a built-in base of millions of fans, including World of Warcraft, Diablo, and Overwatch. The company is well stocked with cash, with $9.3 billion on the balance sheet, which should provide plenty of capital to continue reinvesting for growth.\n2. Electronic Arts\nElectronic Arts is known for its EA Sports titles, most notably Madden and FIFA. EA added 42 million new players to its network during the pandemic. It has a total of 230 million players and viewers, but management is targeting 500 million over the next five years.\nMost importantly, EA has demonstrated the ability to bring out new hits. The free-to-play shooter Apex Legends launched in 2019 and recently surpassed $1 billion in bookings. EA also revealed plans earlier this year to relaunch its previous NCAA Football franchise under the new title EA Sports College Football, which should be released within the next few years.\nEA's success in growing its sports business in recent years has left it with lots of cash to reinvest. It entered fiscal 2022 with $6.3 billion of cash and investments and has already put that to work. So far this year, EA has spent a combined $4.7 billion to buy Glu Mobile, Codemasters, and Playdemic. These studios bring their own game development prowess and popular titles to accelerate EA's expansion into mobile.\nIn fiscal 2021, EA's free cash flow came to $1.8 billion on $5.6 billion of revenue. EA started paying a dividend within the last year, which signals management's confidence in its growth strategy. The quarterly dividend amounts to $0.17 per share, bringing the current dividend yield to 0.48%. The company's growing sports lineup and willingness to return capital to shareholders makes it a top video game stock to consider buying.\n3. Tencent\nTencent is the largest video game company in the world by revenue and also operates the popular WeChat social media platform in China. It owns Riot Games, the operator of one of the top esports titles in the world in League of Legends. It also has ownership stakes in several other companies, including Epic Games and Activision Blizzard.\nGaming makes up 29% of its annual revenue, with online advertising, fintech, and business services composing most of the balance. But gaming is Tencent's largest business segment. It's the diversity of revenue streams across fast-growing markets, including gaming and cloud services, that make it a stock worth keeping on your radar.\nOver the last four quarters, Tencent generated $18.5 billion in free cash flow. It has $39 billion of dry powder on the balance sheet, in addition to a portfolio of investees that was worth over $200 billion in the first quarter. That's a lot of firepower.\nTencent compares the current state of the video game industry to the movie business in the 1930s, and it's investing to maintain its leadership status. Last year, management announced a deep pipeline of 40 new titles, including internally developed and licensed games in development. It's particularly focusing on where gamers are spending more time, which is with big-budget, immersive gaming experiences.\n\"The development speed, scale, range, and depth of information technology is much greater than the last Industrial Revolution,\" said Senior Vice President Steven Ma. \"This brings unimaginable opportunities for games and the space is almost limitless.\"\nHowever, investors should note the risks of investing in Chinese companies. Tencent has come under scrutiny by regulators that have cracked down on \"inappropriate\" content in the company's games, but Tencent has been able to navigate through these obstacles and deliver market-beating returns to investors. The stock price has fallen recently, which can be chalked up to regulatory issues and near-term investments in the business that will pressure profitability this year. But I would look at the recent drop in share price as a buying opportunity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146446891,"gmtCreate":1626097820413,"gmtModify":1703753330388,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146446891","repostId":"1190430688","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190430688","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626097090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190430688?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190430688","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.\nS","content":"<p>Virgin Galactic&nbsp;fell&nbsp;6%&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;as&nbsp;once&nbsp;rising&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d333c87a902f8607ae09dca6c78f8c\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Shares of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic&nbsp;slipped on Monday after the company filed to sell up to $500 million in common stock. This follows the commercial spaceflight company’s successful test flight with founder Sir Richard Branson.</p>\n<p>Shares of Virgin Galactic — which trades under ticker SPCE — fell 8% after the $500 million in stock sale announcement that came after the company's successfully completedfully crewed test flightinto suborbital space on Sunday, a major milestone in the commercial space race and step towards the company's goal for commercial service in early 2022.</p>\n<p>The shares were last at about $44.80, after rising as much as 7% in premarket trading. The stock has doubled so far this year in anticipation of this progress toward commercial service.</p>\n<p>\"We view Branson's achievement as a massive marketing coup for Virgin Galactic that will be impossible for the public to ignore,\" Canaccord Genuity equity analyst Ken Herbert told clients. The firm has a buy rating but $35 price target on the stock, which is below its current level.</p>\n<p>The company's spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees. VSS Unity fired its rocket engine and accelerated to faster than three times the speed of sound in a climb to the edge of space.</p>\n<p>\"We see this as important on the path toward starting passenger flights, which we assume will happen in early 2022,\" AB Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned told clients. The firm has a market perform rating on Virgin Galactic.</p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic's VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each. While passenger ticket sales have yet to be announced, Bernstein expects them to come at a higher price point between $400,000 and $500,000.</p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic also announced it is partnering with sweepstakes company Omaze to offer a chance at two seats on \"one of the first commercial Virgin Galactic spaceflights\" early next year.</p>\n<p>\"The flight is symbolically important for building consumer confidence in and demand for space tourism,\" said Harned. \"A successful test flight by Blue Origin including founder Jeff Bezos, scheduled for July 20, should generate further interest in the industry, which would benefit both companies.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaede22b48f21a26943de5199a5f26e5\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In 2004, Branson founded Virgin Galactic to fly private passengers to space. Branson was not previously expected to fly on Sunday's spaceflight but after fellow billionaire&nbsp;Jeff Bezos&nbsp;announced&nbsp;he would fly on his company Blue Origin's first passenger flight&nbsp;on July 20, Virgin Galactic rearranged its schedule — aiming to fly Branson nine days before Bezos.</p>\n<p>Launching ahead of Bezos or&nbsp;Elon Musk, Sunday's flight means Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.</p>\n<p>AB Bernstein said the flight's success and subsequent ticket sales could well be an upward short-term catalyst for the stock but did not change their long-term forecast. The firm did note that it wouldn't be short the stock, as it has seen huge volatility driven by retail investors reacting to events.</p>\n<ul></ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-12 21:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Virgin Galactic&nbsp;fell&nbsp;6%&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;as&nbsp;once&nbsp;rising&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d333c87a902f8607ae09dca6c78f8c\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Shares of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic&nbsp;slipped on Monday after the company filed to sell up to $500 million in common stock. This follows the commercial spaceflight company’s successful test flight with founder Sir Richard Branson.</p>\n<p>Shares of Virgin Galactic — which trades under ticker SPCE — fell 8% after the $500 million in stock sale announcement that came after the company's successfully completedfully crewed test flightinto suborbital space on Sunday, a major milestone in the commercial space race and step towards the company's goal for commercial service in early 2022.</p>\n<p>The shares were last at about $44.80, after rising as much as 7% in premarket trading. The stock has doubled so far this year in anticipation of this progress toward commercial service.</p>\n<p>\"We view Branson's achievement as a massive marketing coup for Virgin Galactic that will be impossible for the public to ignore,\" Canaccord Genuity equity analyst Ken Herbert told clients. The firm has a buy rating but $35 price target on the stock, which is below its current level.</p>\n<p>The company's spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees. VSS Unity fired its rocket engine and accelerated to faster than three times the speed of sound in a climb to the edge of space.</p>\n<p>\"We see this as important on the path toward starting passenger flights, which we assume will happen in early 2022,\" AB Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned told clients. The firm has a market perform rating on Virgin Galactic.</p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic's VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each. While passenger ticket sales have yet to be announced, Bernstein expects them to come at a higher price point between $400,000 and $500,000.</p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic also announced it is partnering with sweepstakes company Omaze to offer a chance at two seats on \"one of the first commercial Virgin Galactic spaceflights\" early next year.</p>\n<p>\"The flight is symbolically important for building consumer confidence in and demand for space tourism,\" said Harned. \"A successful test flight by Blue Origin including founder Jeff Bezos, scheduled for July 20, should generate further interest in the industry, which would benefit both companies.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaede22b48f21a26943de5199a5f26e5\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In 2004, Branson founded Virgin Galactic to fly private passengers to space. Branson was not previously expected to fly on Sunday's spaceflight but after fellow billionaire&nbsp;Jeff Bezos&nbsp;announced&nbsp;he would fly on his company Blue Origin's first passenger flight&nbsp;on July 20, Virgin Galactic rearranged its schedule — aiming to fly Branson nine days before Bezos.</p>\n<p>Launching ahead of Bezos or&nbsp;Elon Musk, Sunday's flight means Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.</p>\n<p>AB Bernstein said the flight's success and subsequent ticket sales could well be an upward short-term catalyst for the stock but did not change their long-term forecast. The firm did note that it wouldn't be short the stock, as it has seen huge volatility driven by retail investors reacting to events.</p>\n<ul></ul>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190430688","content_text":"Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.\nShares of Virgin Galactic slipped on Monday after the company filed to sell up to $500 million in common stock. This follows the commercial spaceflight company’s successful test flight with founder Sir Richard Branson.\nShares of Virgin Galactic — which trades under ticker SPCE — fell 8% after the $500 million in stock sale announcement that came after the company's successfully completedfully crewed test flightinto suborbital space on Sunday, a major milestone in the commercial space race and step towards the company's goal for commercial service in early 2022.\nThe shares were last at about $44.80, after rising as much as 7% in premarket trading. The stock has doubled so far this year in anticipation of this progress toward commercial service.\n\"We view Branson's achievement as a massive marketing coup for Virgin Galactic that will be impossible for the public to ignore,\" Canaccord Genuity equity analyst Ken Herbert told clients. The firm has a buy rating but $35 price target on the stock, which is below its current level.\nThe company's spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees. VSS Unity fired its rocket engine and accelerated to faster than three times the speed of sound in a climb to the edge of space.\n\"We see this as important on the path toward starting passenger flights, which we assume will happen in early 2022,\" AB Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned told clients. The firm has a market perform rating on Virgin Galactic.\nVirgin Galactic's VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each. While passenger ticket sales have yet to be announced, Bernstein expects them to come at a higher price point between $400,000 and $500,000.\nVirgin Galactic also announced it is partnering with sweepstakes company Omaze to offer a chance at two seats on \"one of the first commercial Virgin Galactic spaceflights\" early next year.\n\"The flight is symbolically important for building consumer confidence in and demand for space tourism,\" said Harned. \"A successful test flight by Blue Origin including founder Jeff Bezos, scheduled for July 20, should generate further interest in the industry, which would benefit both companies.\"\n\nIn 2004, Branson founded Virgin Galactic to fly private passengers to space. Branson was not previously expected to fly on Sunday's spaceflight but after fellow billionaire Jeff Bezos announced he would fly on his company Blue Origin's first passenger flight on July 20, Virgin Galactic rearranged its schedule — aiming to fly Branson nine days before Bezos.\nLaunching ahead of Bezos or Elon Musk, Sunday's flight means Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.\nAB Bernstein said the flight's success and subsequent ticket sales could well be an upward short-term catalyst for the stock but did not change their long-term forecast. The firm did note that it wouldn't be short the stock, as it has seen huge volatility driven by retail investors reacting to events.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148612490,"gmtCreate":1625971076010,"gmtModify":1703751416721,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148612490","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185154176?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p>\n<p>It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p>\n<p>Here’s why.</p>\n<p>We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p>\n<p><b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p>\n<p>Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p>\n<p>First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p>\n<p>Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p>\n<p>Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p>\n<p>Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p>\n<p>Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p>\n<p>You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p>\n<p>Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p>\n<p><b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p>\n<p>Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p>\n<p>“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p>\n<p>Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p>\n<p>For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p>\n<p>Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p>\n<p><b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p>\n<p>Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p>\n<p><b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p>\n<p>We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p>\n<p>This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p>\n<p>True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p>\n<p><b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p>\n<p>As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p>\n<p><b>Three themes to follow</b></p>\n<p>If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p>\n<p><b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p>\n<p><b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p>\n<p><b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141991413,"gmtCreate":1625830844932,"gmtModify":1703749408286,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Read","listText":"Good Read","text":"Good Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141991413","repostId":"1113072261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113072261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625823554,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113072261?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113072261","media":"Benzinga","summary":"GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of","content":"<p><b>GameStop Corp.</b>&nbsp;short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>Founded in 2014 by Gabe Plotkin, a former portfolio manager for Steve Cohen, Melvin Capital was at the heart of the GameStop saga earlier this year.</p>\n<p>The hedge fund, which managed $11 billion in assets as of June 1, is taking smaller-sized positions to limit exposure to single companies, as per the report.</p>\n<p>Plotkin has reportedly instructed his team of data scientists to watch social media and message boards to look for shares that are seeing high support from retail investors.</p>\n<p><b>Why It Matters:</b>Melvin Capital’s first-half results indicate the hedge fund is struggling to rebound from thelossesit incurred from betting against GameStop&nbsp;and other stonks - stocks popular with retail investors.</p>\n<p>Melvin Capital said in May it has&nbsp;closed out&nbsp;of all its public bearish positions in the first quarter. This included its listed put options in GameStop.</p>\n<p>It was&nbsp;reported&nbsp;in June that London-based White Square Capital is shutting down after suffering huge losses during the retail trading frenzy earlier in the year. This marked one of the first hedge fund closures following the surge in shares of stonks.</p>\n<p>In early June,<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.</b>&nbsp;and GameStop short-seller losses swelled up to$12 billionon a year-to-date basis. Both the stocks continue to seehigh interestfrom retail investors.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action</b>: AMC Entertainment shares closed almost 6.4% higher in Thursday’s regular trading session at $47.94, while GameStop shares closed almost 0.4% higher at $191.38.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-09 17:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.\nWhat Happened:Founded in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113072261","content_text":"GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.\nWhat Happened:Founded in 2014 by Gabe Plotkin, a former portfolio manager for Steve Cohen, Melvin Capital was at the heart of the GameStop saga earlier this year.\nThe hedge fund, which managed $11 billion in assets as of June 1, is taking smaller-sized positions to limit exposure to single companies, as per the report.\nPlotkin has reportedly instructed his team of data scientists to watch social media and message boards to look for shares that are seeing high support from retail investors.\nWhy It Matters:Melvin Capital’s first-half results indicate the hedge fund is struggling to rebound from thelossesit incurred from betting against GameStop and other stonks - stocks popular with retail investors.\nMelvin Capital said in May it has closed out of all its public bearish positions in the first quarter. This included its listed put options in GameStop.\nIt was reported in June that London-based White Square Capital is shutting down after suffering huge losses during the retail trading frenzy earlier in the year. This marked one of the first hedge fund closures following the surge in shares of stonks.\nIn early June,AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and GameStop short-seller losses swelled up to$12 billionon a year-to-date basis. Both the stocks continue to seehigh interestfrom retail investors.\nPrice Action: AMC Entertainment shares closed almost 6.4% higher in Thursday’s regular trading session at $47.94, while GameStop shares closed almost 0.4% higher at $191.38.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157077178,"gmtCreate":1625558569194,"gmtModify":1703743659097,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Read","listText":"Good Read","text":"Good Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157077178","repostId":"1103271988","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157018461,"gmtCreate":1625552980053,"gmtModify":1703743566893,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Read","listText":"Good Read","text":"Good Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157018461","repostId":"1164348327","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164348327","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625535165,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164348327?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 09:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Ultra-Popular Stocks to Avoid Like the Plague in July","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164348327","media":"The motley fool","summary":"For the past 15 months, Wall Street and investors have enjoyed a historic bounce-back rally. The ben","content":"<p>For the past 15 months, Wall Street and investors have enjoyed a historic bounce-back rally. The benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>has gained more than 90% since hitting its bear-market bottom on March 23, 2020.</p>\n<p>While a number of high-quality and innovative businesses have led this rally, it's also allowed quite a few terrible companies to thrive. It's my suggestion that the following five ultra-popular stocks be avoided like the plague in July.</p>\n<p>Coinbase Global</p>\n<p>First up is cryptocurrency exchange and ecosystem<b>Coinbase Global</b>(NASDAQ:COIN). Coinbase is popular given how quickly its revenue and profits surged in the first quarter as investors piled into the likes of<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;and<b>Ethereum</b>. The problem is there are a trio of catalysts working against the Coinbase brokerage model.</p>\n<p>To start with, there's nothing that prevents competing exchanges from undercutting Coinbase Global's fees. It might have the verified user advantage at the moment, but don't underestimate the willingness of crypto investors to jump ship to save on transaction fees. We witnessed it among traditional brokerages, and the industry eventually wound up going commission-free.</p>\n<p>Second,crypto has a history of boom-and-bust cycles. Bitcoin has had three separate instances over the last decade where it's shed at least 80% of its value. This is an entirely momentum-based investment, and when upside momentum dries up, so does Coinbase's trading revenue. Following a 2017 peak, Coinbase saw its revenue nearly halve in subsequent years.</p>\n<p>And third, the past four weeks, through June 28, saw outflows from crypto of $257.3 million, according to CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly. This is more evidence that interest in crypto is already dwindling with these assets well off their highs. Suffice it to say, Coinbase isnot a stock you're going to want to ownmoving forward.</p>\n<p>Cassava Sciences</p>\n<p>Another ultra-popular company with a terrible risk-versus-reward ratio is clinical-stagebiotech stock<b>Cassava Sciences</b>(NASDAQ:SAVA).</p>\n<p>Cassava rightly made waves in February when it announced positive clinical data from an interim analysis of simufilam as a treatment for Alzheimer's disease. The open-label trial showed improvement in cognition and behavior at the six-month mark, and more recently allowed Cassava to outline its plans for a phase 3 trial involving its lead drug candidate.</p>\n<p>I'd love for simufilam to be successful, but history has shown that Alzheimer's is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the toughest-to-treat diseases. With the exception of<b>Biogen</b>'s Aduhelm, which was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) but has been criticized heavily for its lack of clear benefit, every Alzheimer's drughas failed in late-stage studies for more than a decade. All investors have to go on is early stage, open-label data from a trial that aimed to enroll 100 patients. It's not been uncommon to see positive early or-mid-stage results get pulverized come a large phase 3 Alzheimer's trial.</p>\n<p>Although Cassava raised a good amount of cash to continue its research, history suggests that simufilam's chance of success is very slim. That makes Cassava Sciences easily avoidable.</p>\n<p>GameStop</p>\n<p>If you've been following the retail trade movement (i.e. Reddit stocks), whereby retail investors are seeking out heavily short-sold companies and attempting to effect a short squeeze, you probably know video game and accessories retailer<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME).</p>\n<p>On <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> hand, GameStop has been able to capitalize on its recent fame byselling stock to raise capitalfor its ongoing transformation to a digital gaming company. It's a much-needed move after e-commerce sales jumped 191% in fiscal 2020 and more than quadrupled during the holiday season, from the prior-year period.</p>\n<p>However, these capital raises don't overlook the fact that theprevious management team failed the company. For two decades, a brick-and-mortar gaming model worked well. However, sticking to this brick-and-mortar model when gaming was going digital left the company in a precarious position. Today, GameStop continues to lose money, even with rapid e-commerce growth, and saw its same-store sales decline by almost 10% last year. Digital sales may be growing, but total revenue is going nowhere as GameStop shutters its physical locations to lower costs.</p>\n<p>GameStop is in no way a bankruptcy candidate, and I can actually see a path to profitability years down the road. But with that being said, the gains it's seen make no sense given the long transformation and operating losses that lie ahead.</p>\n<p>Inovio Pharmaceuticals</p>\n<p>Biotech stocks can offer ample opportunity, or in<b>Inovio Pharmaceuticals</b>'(NASDAQ:INO)case, suck the lifeblood out of long-term investors.</p>\n<p>Inovio would appear to be an intriguing company based solely on paper. It has a pipeline that currently includes over a dozen clinical candidates to treat cancer, infectious diseases, and human papilloma virus. The most-promising looks to be INO-4800, the company's coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine candidate that's readying for phase 3 studies. But if you do any digging into Inovio's clinical performance, you'll be sorely disappointed.</p>\n<p>For example, INO-4800had been placed on partial clinical holdin the U.S. while regulators requested additional data on Inovio's vaccine and its delivery system, Cellectra. More recently, INO-4800 had its late-stage funding pulled by the U.S. government, which is why it's now seeking an international study for its COVID-19 candidate.</p>\n<p>If you think I'm unfairly picking on Inovio for its COVID-19 struggles, pan out even further. In four decades, Inoviohasn't managed to get a drug approved by the FDA. This isn't me wishing bad things on Inovio -- this is the reality that hope and results haven't aligned with this company for a long time. Until Inovio proves itself in a late-stage clinical trial, it's worth avoiding.</p>\n<p>AMC Entertainment</p>\n<p>Finally, I can't forgetongoing pump-and-dump scheme<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC). While retail investors were able to claim victory by effecting a short squeeze in January after AMC saved itself by issuing a bunch of shares and high-interest debt, the most recent run-up has nothing to do with a short squeeze. Rather, it's based predominantly on hype, the purposeful obfuscation of concrete fundamental data on message boards, and broad-based, blatant misinformation.</p>\n<p>AMC's retail investors would like you to believe that fundamentals don't matter -- but try driving a car without an engine and see how far you get. AMC is dealing with a 19-year decline in industry ticket sales and is seeing some of its film exclusivity evaporate as movie studios lean on streaming. There will be a place for movie theaters, but AMC'saddressable market keeps shrinkingwith each passing year.</p>\n<p>AMC's retail investors would also have you believe the company is in great shape after raising $2 billion in capital. While it has put bankruptcy rumors in the near-term on the backburner, the 2027 bond price is nowhere near par. Why, you ask? Because bondholders aren't convinced that AMC is going to escape bankruptcy.</p>\n<p>I've seen enough pump-and-dump campaigns in my life to recognize them, andAMC checks all the boxes. My suggestion isn't to short AMC. My suggestion is to avoid it completely. All pump-and-dump schemes eventually collapse, and AMC will be no exception.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Ultra-Popular Stocks to Avoid Like the Plague in July</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Ultra-Popular Stocks to Avoid Like the Plague in July\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-06 09:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/05/5-ultra-popular-stocks-avoid-like-plague-in-july/><strong>The motley fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For the past 15 months, Wall Street and investors have enjoyed a historic bounce-back rally. The benchmarkS&P 500has gained more than 90% since hitting its bear-market bottom on March 23, 2020.\nWhile ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/05/5-ultra-popular-stocks-avoid-like-plague-in-july/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAVA":"Cassava Sciences Inc","AMC":"AMC院线","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","INO":"伊诺维奥制药"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/05/5-ultra-popular-stocks-avoid-like-plague-in-july/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164348327","content_text":"For the past 15 months, Wall Street and investors have enjoyed a historic bounce-back rally. The benchmarkS&P 500has gained more than 90% since hitting its bear-market bottom on March 23, 2020.\nWhile a number of high-quality and innovative businesses have led this rally, it's also allowed quite a few terrible companies to thrive. It's my suggestion that the following five ultra-popular stocks be avoided like the plague in July.\nCoinbase Global\nFirst up is cryptocurrency exchange and ecosystemCoinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN). Coinbase is popular given how quickly its revenue and profits surged in the first quarter as investors piled into the likes ofBitcoin andEthereum. The problem is there are a trio of catalysts working against the Coinbase brokerage model.\nTo start with, there's nothing that prevents competing exchanges from undercutting Coinbase Global's fees. It might have the verified user advantage at the moment, but don't underestimate the willingness of crypto investors to jump ship to save on transaction fees. We witnessed it among traditional brokerages, and the industry eventually wound up going commission-free.\nSecond,crypto has a history of boom-and-bust cycles. Bitcoin has had three separate instances over the last decade where it's shed at least 80% of its value. This is an entirely momentum-based investment, and when upside momentum dries up, so does Coinbase's trading revenue. Following a 2017 peak, Coinbase saw its revenue nearly halve in subsequent years.\nAnd third, the past four weeks, through June 28, saw outflows from crypto of $257.3 million, according to CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly. This is more evidence that interest in crypto is already dwindling with these assets well off their highs. Suffice it to say, Coinbase isnot a stock you're going to want to ownmoving forward.\nCassava Sciences\nAnother ultra-popular company with a terrible risk-versus-reward ratio is clinical-stagebiotech stockCassava Sciences(NASDAQ:SAVA).\nCassava rightly made waves in February when it announced positive clinical data from an interim analysis of simufilam as a treatment for Alzheimer's disease. The open-label trial showed improvement in cognition and behavior at the six-month mark, and more recently allowed Cassava to outline its plans for a phase 3 trial involving its lead drug candidate.\nI'd love for simufilam to be successful, but history has shown that Alzheimer's is one of the toughest-to-treat diseases. With the exception ofBiogen's Aduhelm, which was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) but has been criticized heavily for its lack of clear benefit, every Alzheimer's drughas failed in late-stage studies for more than a decade. All investors have to go on is early stage, open-label data from a trial that aimed to enroll 100 patients. It's not been uncommon to see positive early or-mid-stage results get pulverized come a large phase 3 Alzheimer's trial.\nAlthough Cassava raised a good amount of cash to continue its research, history suggests that simufilam's chance of success is very slim. That makes Cassava Sciences easily avoidable.\nGameStop\nIf you've been following the retail trade movement (i.e. Reddit stocks), whereby retail investors are seeking out heavily short-sold companies and attempting to effect a short squeeze, you probably know video game and accessories retailerGameStop(NYSE:GME).\nOn one hand, GameStop has been able to capitalize on its recent fame byselling stock to raise capitalfor its ongoing transformation to a digital gaming company. It's a much-needed move after e-commerce sales jumped 191% in fiscal 2020 and more than quadrupled during the holiday season, from the prior-year period.\nHowever, these capital raises don't overlook the fact that theprevious management team failed the company. For two decades, a brick-and-mortar gaming model worked well. However, sticking to this brick-and-mortar model when gaming was going digital left the company in a precarious position. Today, GameStop continues to lose money, even with rapid e-commerce growth, and saw its same-store sales decline by almost 10% last year. Digital sales may be growing, but total revenue is going nowhere as GameStop shutters its physical locations to lower costs.\nGameStop is in no way a bankruptcy candidate, and I can actually see a path to profitability years down the road. But with that being said, the gains it's seen make no sense given the long transformation and operating losses that lie ahead.\nInovio Pharmaceuticals\nBiotech stocks can offer ample opportunity, or inInovio Pharmaceuticals'(NASDAQ:INO)case, suck the lifeblood out of long-term investors.\nInovio would appear to be an intriguing company based solely on paper. It has a pipeline that currently includes over a dozen clinical candidates to treat cancer, infectious diseases, and human papilloma virus. The most-promising looks to be INO-4800, the company's coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine candidate that's readying for phase 3 studies. But if you do any digging into Inovio's clinical performance, you'll be sorely disappointed.\nFor example, INO-4800had been placed on partial clinical holdin the U.S. while regulators requested additional data on Inovio's vaccine and its delivery system, Cellectra. More recently, INO-4800 had its late-stage funding pulled by the U.S. government, which is why it's now seeking an international study for its COVID-19 candidate.\nIf you think I'm unfairly picking on Inovio for its COVID-19 struggles, pan out even further. In four decades, Inoviohasn't managed to get a drug approved by the FDA. This isn't me wishing bad things on Inovio -- this is the reality that hope and results haven't aligned with this company for a long time. Until Inovio proves itself in a late-stage clinical trial, it's worth avoiding.\nAMC Entertainment\nFinally, I can't forgetongoing pump-and-dump schemeAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC). While retail investors were able to claim victory by effecting a short squeeze in January after AMC saved itself by issuing a bunch of shares and high-interest debt, the most recent run-up has nothing to do with a short squeeze. Rather, it's based predominantly on hype, the purposeful obfuscation of concrete fundamental data on message boards, and broad-based, blatant misinformation.\nAMC's retail investors would like you to believe that fundamentals don't matter -- but try driving a car without an engine and see how far you get. AMC is dealing with a 19-year decline in industry ticket sales and is seeing some of its film exclusivity evaporate as movie studios lean on streaming. There will be a place for movie theaters, but AMC'saddressable market keeps shrinkingwith each passing year.\nAMC's retail investors would also have you believe the company is in great shape after raising $2 billion in capital. While it has put bankruptcy rumors in the near-term on the backburner, the 2027 bond price is nowhere near par. Why, you ask? Because bondholders aren't convinced that AMC is going to escape bankruptcy.\nI've seen enough pump-and-dump campaigns in my life to recognize them, andAMC checks all the boxes. My suggestion isn't to short AMC. My suggestion is to avoid it completely. All pump-and-dump schemes eventually collapse, and AMC will be no exception.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154714280,"gmtCreate":1625545215240,"gmtModify":1703743430518,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Read","listText":"Good Read","text":"Good Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154714280","repostId":"1191866145","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155107728,"gmtCreate":1625383472364,"gmtModify":1703741120006,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Read","listText":"Good Read","text":"Good Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155107728","repostId":"1189605893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189605893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625363433,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189605893?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-04 09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Big Tech Stumbles, the Market Can Fall Hard. These 5 Funds Can Help.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189605893","media":"Barron's","summary":"It is possible to have too much of a good thing. After riding five megacap technology stocks to new highs after new highs, investors’ portfolios may be uncomfortably concentrated in these winners at a time that some strategists see a potential turn ahead in the markets.Investors’ portfolios are chock-full of these stocks, leaving them less diversified for a possible turn in the market. These companies are already beginning to slow down. Take Amazon, which accounts for roughly 4% of the S&P 500—m","content":"<p>It is possible to have too much of a good thing. After riding five megacap technology stocks to new highs after new highs, investors’ portfolios may be uncomfortably concentrated in these winners at a time that some strategists see a potential turn ahead in the markets.</p>\n<p>Owning the Big Five—Apple(ticker: AAPL),Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN),Facebook(FB), andAlphabet’sGoogle (GOOGL)—has been lucrative: These companies have logged gains of 125% to 245% since the beginning of 2019. These stocks are widely held, not just by index investors, but also among all kinds of active fund managers—including those who don’t typically own growth companies.</p>\n<p>Together, the five companies account for almost 22% of theS&amp;P 500index. Of course, the Nifty Fifty stocks dominated the 1970s, and blue-chip stalwarts such asIBM(IBM) andAT&amp;T(T) ruled the 1980s. Those companies may have wielded even more influence over the broad economy than today’s biggest companies do, but the level of market concentration is higher now, and the Big Five’s impact on the broad market is much greater because of their size, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. Apple and Microsoft are the first U.S. stocks whose market values have soared past $2 trillion. Though it has slipped a bit this year, Apple hit peak concentration for a single stock in the S&amp;P 500 last year at about 7%, higher than IBM’s in its heyday.</p>\n<p>There are signs that investor appetite for risk is waning, which could hurt the prospects for the growth of Big Tech. There has beena selloff in speculative cornersof the market, such as cryptocurrencies and special purpose acquisition companies, better known as SPACs. And, of course, there is therising consternationabout both inflation andinterest ratesmoving higher. If the Big Fiveslow downor tumble, the entire market—including all index investors—will feel it. If these stocks decline by 10%, for instance, in order for the S&amp;P 500 to keep trading flat, the bottom 100 stocks in the index would have to rise by a collective 75%, according toGoldman Sachs.This dynamic explains why narrow market breadth has often preceded big losses.</p>\n<p><b>When Less May Be More</b></p>\n<p>These funds are more diversified than the S&amp;P 500, and could be more resilient if the tech megacaps stumble.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d308adf067ef3205da5f7c1bddb75e77\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Investors’ portfolios are chock-full of these stocks, leaving them less diversified for a possible turn in the market. These companies are already beginning to slow down. Take Amazon, which accounts for roughly 4% of the S&amp;P 500—more than the energy, real estate, materials, or utilities sectors. Amazon hasn’t hit an all-time high this year, and has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 25 percentage points since September 2020 amid questions about the company’s e-commerce growth. Add in regulatory pressure, which could make the path ahead for these companies rockier, such as a House panel’s approval of sweeping legislation last month that could curb the dominance of companies like Google and Facebook.</p>\n<p>A global recovery could also make the Big Five stocks less special. “The story line with megacap tech stocks has been that economic growth has been hard to find and rates so low that you wanted to own powerful growth stocks,” says Scott Opsal, director of research at Leuthold Group. “But for those who think the economy has room to run, you don’t have to pay up for the growth that investors were willing to pay for in 2018 or 2019.” For Opsal, the changing backdrop is reason for a barbell approach, owning some of the technology winners but also diversifying into a wider array of more value-oriented and smaller stocks.</p>\n<p>With the market so concentrated in a handful of megacap tech stocks, Opsal says that investors may want the type of funds that do what the fund consultants advise against: be willing to drift out of their lane, and be willing to not fit neatly into a growth or value category.</p>\n<p>It isn’t easy finding good fund managers with the acumen to pick the right stocks beyond the other 495, the grit to avoid the crowd, and the track record that demonstrates to investors that they can be different and correct. Performance doesn’t look all that great for managers whose wariness led them to own less of the technology darlings that drove the market to highs over the past several years. And the decision to not own any—or even just less—of these companies sometimes pushed managers out of theirMorningstarcategory into areas like large-cap blend.</p>\n<p>High active share has often been a go-to gauge for finding fund managers who look different than their benchmarks. That’s a good place to start, but different doesn’t always lead to outperformance, so Morningstar strategist Alec Lucas recommends understanding what is in the managers’ portfolios and the thinking behind the picks—as well as when they buy or sell the stocks.</p>\n<p><i>Barron’s</i>looked for large-cap growth-oriented managers that don’t usually stick too close to an index and have long, and strong, track records. We turned up both diversified and concentrated funds; some didn’t own any of the Big Five, while some owned a bit, albeit less than their peers. All may offer investors a way to tweak rather than overhaul their portfolios, giving them some more diversification while still tapping into large, growing companies.</p>\n<p><b>A Concentrated Approach</b></p>\n<p>The Akre Focus fund (AKREX) falls into the concentrated bucket. It owns about 20 well-managed companies that the managers, John Neff and Chris Cerrone, think are superior businesses and adept at reinvesting in the companies. The fund has just a 4% turnover, so it holds on to its investments for years. That has been a winning long-term strategy: Akre Focus has an 18% average annual return over the past decade, beating 84% of its peers.</p>\n<p>The past few years have been tough, though: The fund hasn’t owned the Big Five, and has just 13% of its assets in any kind of technology company, whereas most of its peers have close to a third in tech. It has averaged 22% annually over the past three years; not too shabby on an absolute basis, but landing it midpack among competitors. The managers are resolute in finding growth elsewhere. “They are tremendous businesses, but how many more times can they double in value, given their current size? Maybe many times, but it’s an important question,” says Neff. “We’ve generally focused on smaller businesses with ostensibly longer runways with which to compound.”</p>\n<p>The tech investments that the managers have made are largely in software companies like Constellation Software (CSU.Canada),Adobe(ADBE), andCoStar Group(CSGP) that have long paths to growth ahead of them as more companies rely on their products. The fund also looks for companies with the type of “network effect” that makes Google and Amazon attractive—the business model gets stronger as more people use it, and makes the company that much harder to replace. Top holdings like Mastercard (MA) andVisa(V) fit that description.</p>\n<p>Many of the companies the duo favors are positioned to hold up, stand out, or even benefit from difficult times, like auto-parts retailerO’Reilly Automotive(ORLY), which recently reported its best comparable same-store sales in 25 years. Given the market backdrop, co-manager Cerrone says they aren’t finding that many bargains today—and they are willing to hold cash if that continues. Today, cash sits at just 2%. “We frankly wish we had more cash than we do today,” Cerrone says. “We’re not bearish, but we think we will be presented with better opportunities.”</p>\n<p><b>Underappreciated Growth</b></p>\n<p>The $10.1 billionPrimecap Odyssey Growthfund (POGRX) hunts for companies with above-average earnings growth, but not one of the Big Five tech stocks can be spotted in their top 10 holdings.</p>\n<p>That underweight has been painful; the fund’s 19.6% annual average return over the past five years puts it in the bottom third of large growth funds. But the managers’ willingness to stick with companies with above-average growth for the long haul, often adding to their shares in downturns, wins them fans.</p>\n<p>The fund’s managers are investing in some of the broad trends driving the Big Five—like e-commerce and cloud computing—but doing it differently, says Morningstar’s Lucas. For example, the fund owns Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) instead of Amazon, opting for China’s version of an e-commerce and cloud-computing giant that also trades at a meaningful discount to the U.S. company, Lucas says. Primecap declined to comment.</p>\n<p>About 18% of the fund is invested outside the U.S. and its average price/earnings ratio is 20, cheaper than the 29 for the large growth category, according to Morningstar. Though the fund isn’t concentrated in the Big Five tech stocks, it has double the stake in healthcare, almost 30% of assets, than other large growth funds. Its top 10 positions includeEli Lilly(LLY),Biogen(BIIB),Abiomed(ABMD), andAmgen(AMGN).</p>\n<p><b>Lean Profit Machines</b></p>\n<p>The $10.3 billionJensen Quality Growth(JENSX) focuses on companies that generate 15% return on equity for 10 consecutive years—a metric that co-manager Eric Schoenstein sees as a gauge forfoundational excellenceand fortress-like competitive advantages. Amazon and Facebook don’t make the cut. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple rank among the top holdings, but Schoenstein holds roughly a third less than in the Russell 1000 Growth index. Schoenstein says he is trying to be conscious of the risk of concentration if the momentum trade reverts or regulation puts a target on these companies’ backs.</p>\n<p>Schoenstein’s caution and a focus on quality companies have pushed the fund toward the bottom decile of the large blend Morningstar category year to date, with a return of 11.6%. But the fund’s 17.3% average return over the past five years puts it in the top 35% of large-blend funds tracked by Morningstar. Plus, the fund’s risk-adjusted, long-term performance stands out, losing about 77% as much as the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 1000 Growth indexes when stocks have fallen since Schoenstein began co-managing the fund in 2004, according to Morningstar.</p>\n<p>Lately, Schoenstein has been adding to quality stocks that may not be growing as fast but are more attractively priced as investors have left them behind, such asStarbucks(SBUX)—a stock that had been too pricey until the pandemic hit. “What better business is there to be in than branded addiction?” Schoenstein asks.</p>\n<p>While offices in New York City may not get to 100% occupancy, Schoenstein sees hybrid work situations continuing to drive business to Starbucks, potentially with fewer customers but higher sales, as one person buys for multiple people. The company is also closing stores to become more efficient and moving more toward quick-serve and grab-and-go in some locations rather than an all-day café experience.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81aeb359e30f7394a363f00feb8ce0cf\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Insurance is another area that Schoenstein has been adding to, with companies like Marsh &amp; McLennan (MMC), which is dominant in multiple businesses—insurance brokerage, health benefits, and retirement asset management with Mercer. Switching costs are high in the world of insurance, and the company benefits from new trends in cybersecurity and data privacy, as well.</p>\n<p>Another recent purchase: Data-analytics providerVerisk Analytics(VRSK), which serves property and casualty insurers and gets about 80% of its revenue from subscriptions and long-term agreements. The company helps take raw data and analyze it to help insurers, for example, underwrite policies. Says Schoenstein: “Some recovery is still needed because business has struggled over the past year, with business failures and companies putting [projects] on hold. So, it’s a small position, but I think about companies that are super-entrenched with their customers.”</p>\n<p><b>Multiple Managers</b></p>\n<p>Unlike the Jensen and Akre funds, which typically own 20 to 30 stocks, the $87 billionAmerican Funds Amcapfund (AMCPX) is well diversified, with more than 200 holdings, as managers hunt for the best ideas regardless of size.Abbott Laboratories(ABT),Broadcom(AVGO),EOG Resources(EOG), and Mastercard are top holdings along with four of the megacap tech quintuplets.</p>\n<p>But the fund is valuation-sensitive, and its allocation to the Big Five is lower than other growth managers, hurting its performance over the past five years; its average annual return of 17.3% puts it in the bottom decile of performance. For investors looking for diversification, the fund is a relatively cheap option—charging an expense ratio of 0.68%—that isn’t beholden to a benchmark and is run by multiple managers who can hunt for their highest-conviction ideas.</p>\n<p>Managers favor companies with strong competitive positioning, which can allow companies to boost prices and better weather near-term inflationary periods. While that includes a healthy helping of healthcare and technology stocks, managers have also gravitated toward cyclical growth companies, including semiconductor firms, travel-related companies, auto suppliers, retailers, and financials benefiting from secular growth as well as getting an additional boost from the Covid recovery.</p>\n<p>“It’s very consistent, and a good core fund with a lot of good stockpickers behind it,” says Russel Kinnel, Morningstar’s director of manager research. “You want a fund to have some good technology exposure because it’s a dynamic sector.”</p>\n<p><b>Growth on the Cheap</b></p>\n<p>The $357 million Cambiar Opportunity fund (CAMOX) is a concentrated fund that owns roughly 40 stocks. The fund looks for relative values among industry winners that boast strong long-term demand prospects and pricing power that differentiate it from some of its peers. The fund’s 16% average annual return over the past five years helped it beat 94% of its large-value peers.</p>\n<p>The fund holds Amazon, which it bought for the first time in early 2020 when the market wasn’t giving the e-commerce behemoth much value for its cloud business. It has been harder to own other megacap technology stocks, says Ania Aldrich, an investment principal at Cambiar. That’s in part because of their high valuations, but especially as exchange-traded funds continue to receive record-high inflows—$400 billion in the first half of 2021, versus $507 billion for all of last year, according to ETF.com—which contributes to the market concentration.</p>\n<p>Instead, the fund has focused on areas such as financials, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Charles Schwab (SCHW), that can grow in this economic environment. Both would benefit from higher interest rates, but Aldrich says that wasn’t the reason to buy the stocks. Schwab, for example, is taking market share in wealth management, and its recent acquisition of Ameritrade gives it more heft and the ability to be more cost-efficient.</p>\n<p>Also attractive are companies that haven’t yet seen a full reopening of their businesses, like casino operatorPenn National Gaming(PENN), which Aldrich says is well positioned as states look for more revenue andallow online gambling, and food distributorSysco(SYY), which has yet to benefit from colleges and conferences getting back into full swing. While Sysco’s shares are up 43% in the past year, Aldrich sees more room for gains, noting that the company is a market leader and can take market share as smaller firms consolidate. Plus, it has pricing power to pass on higher commodity costs since it is a distributor.</p>\n<p>Another recent addition:Uber Technologies(UBER), which Aldrich says isn’t just a reopening beneficiary but also has increased the reach of its platform by moving into food delivery and opening the door to other services. “In the past, it was hard to outperform when you weren’t involved in the [concentrated stocks], but we see these trends as transitory. As growth normalizes, the value of other stocks should be recognized.”</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Big Tech Stumbles, the Market Can Fall Hard. These 5 Funds Can Help.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Big Tech Stumbles, the Market Can Fall Hard. These 5 Funds Can Help.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-04 09:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-stocks-risk-funds-51625257865?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It is possible to have too much of a good thing. After riding five megacap technology stocks to new highs after new highs, investors’ portfolios may be uncomfortably concentrated in these winners at a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-stocks-risk-funds-51625257865?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-stocks-risk-funds-51625257865?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189605893","content_text":"It is possible to have too much of a good thing. After riding five megacap technology stocks to new highs after new highs, investors’ portfolios may be uncomfortably concentrated in these winners at a time that some strategists see a potential turn ahead in the markets.\nOwning the Big Five—Apple(ticker: AAPL),Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN),Facebook(FB), andAlphabet’sGoogle (GOOGL)—has been lucrative: These companies have logged gains of 125% to 245% since the beginning of 2019. These stocks are widely held, not just by index investors, but also among all kinds of active fund managers—including those who don’t typically own growth companies.\nTogether, the five companies account for almost 22% of theS&P 500index. Of course, the Nifty Fifty stocks dominated the 1970s, and blue-chip stalwarts such asIBM(IBM) andAT&T(T) ruled the 1980s. Those companies may have wielded even more influence over the broad economy than today’s biggest companies do, but the level of market concentration is higher now, and the Big Five’s impact on the broad market is much greater because of their size, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Apple and Microsoft are the first U.S. stocks whose market values have soared past $2 trillion. Though it has slipped a bit this year, Apple hit peak concentration for a single stock in the S&P 500 last year at about 7%, higher than IBM’s in its heyday.\nThere are signs that investor appetite for risk is waning, which could hurt the prospects for the growth of Big Tech. There has beena selloff in speculative cornersof the market, such as cryptocurrencies and special purpose acquisition companies, better known as SPACs. And, of course, there is therising consternationabout both inflation andinterest ratesmoving higher. If the Big Fiveslow downor tumble, the entire market—including all index investors—will feel it. If these stocks decline by 10%, for instance, in order for the S&P 500 to keep trading flat, the bottom 100 stocks in the index would have to rise by a collective 75%, according toGoldman Sachs.This dynamic explains why narrow market breadth has often preceded big losses.\nWhen Less May Be More\nThese funds are more diversified than the S&P 500, and could be more resilient if the tech megacaps stumble.\n\nInvestors’ portfolios are chock-full of these stocks, leaving them less diversified for a possible turn in the market. These companies are already beginning to slow down. Take Amazon, which accounts for roughly 4% of the S&P 500—more than the energy, real estate, materials, or utilities sectors. Amazon hasn’t hit an all-time high this year, and has underperformed the S&P 500 by 25 percentage points since September 2020 amid questions about the company’s e-commerce growth. Add in regulatory pressure, which could make the path ahead for these companies rockier, such as a House panel’s approval of sweeping legislation last month that could curb the dominance of companies like Google and Facebook.\nA global recovery could also make the Big Five stocks less special. “The story line with megacap tech stocks has been that economic growth has been hard to find and rates so low that you wanted to own powerful growth stocks,” says Scott Opsal, director of research at Leuthold Group. “But for those who think the economy has room to run, you don’t have to pay up for the growth that investors were willing to pay for in 2018 or 2019.” For Opsal, the changing backdrop is reason for a barbell approach, owning some of the technology winners but also diversifying into a wider array of more value-oriented and smaller stocks.\nWith the market so concentrated in a handful of megacap tech stocks, Opsal says that investors may want the type of funds that do what the fund consultants advise against: be willing to drift out of their lane, and be willing to not fit neatly into a growth or value category.\nIt isn’t easy finding good fund managers with the acumen to pick the right stocks beyond the other 495, the grit to avoid the crowd, and the track record that demonstrates to investors that they can be different and correct. Performance doesn’t look all that great for managers whose wariness led them to own less of the technology darlings that drove the market to highs over the past several years. And the decision to not own any—or even just less—of these companies sometimes pushed managers out of theirMorningstarcategory into areas like large-cap blend.\nHigh active share has often been a go-to gauge for finding fund managers who look different than their benchmarks. That’s a good place to start, but different doesn’t always lead to outperformance, so Morningstar strategist Alec Lucas recommends understanding what is in the managers’ portfolios and the thinking behind the picks—as well as when they buy or sell the stocks.\nBarron’slooked for large-cap growth-oriented managers that don’t usually stick too close to an index and have long, and strong, track records. We turned up both diversified and concentrated funds; some didn’t own any of the Big Five, while some owned a bit, albeit less than their peers. All may offer investors a way to tweak rather than overhaul their portfolios, giving them some more diversification while still tapping into large, growing companies.\nA Concentrated Approach\nThe Akre Focus fund (AKREX) falls into the concentrated bucket. It owns about 20 well-managed companies that the managers, John Neff and Chris Cerrone, think are superior businesses and adept at reinvesting in the companies. The fund has just a 4% turnover, so it holds on to its investments for years. That has been a winning long-term strategy: Akre Focus has an 18% average annual return over the past decade, beating 84% of its peers.\nThe past few years have been tough, though: The fund hasn’t owned the Big Five, and has just 13% of its assets in any kind of technology company, whereas most of its peers have close to a third in tech. It has averaged 22% annually over the past three years; not too shabby on an absolute basis, but landing it midpack among competitors. The managers are resolute in finding growth elsewhere. “They are tremendous businesses, but how many more times can they double in value, given their current size? Maybe many times, but it’s an important question,” says Neff. “We’ve generally focused on smaller businesses with ostensibly longer runways with which to compound.”\nThe tech investments that the managers have made are largely in software companies like Constellation Software (CSU.Canada),Adobe(ADBE), andCoStar Group(CSGP) that have long paths to growth ahead of them as more companies rely on their products. The fund also looks for companies with the type of “network effect” that makes Google and Amazon attractive—the business model gets stronger as more people use it, and makes the company that much harder to replace. Top holdings like Mastercard (MA) andVisa(V) fit that description.\nMany of the companies the duo favors are positioned to hold up, stand out, or even benefit from difficult times, like auto-parts retailerO’Reilly Automotive(ORLY), which recently reported its best comparable same-store sales in 25 years. Given the market backdrop, co-manager Cerrone says they aren’t finding that many bargains today—and they are willing to hold cash if that continues. Today, cash sits at just 2%. “We frankly wish we had more cash than we do today,” Cerrone says. “We’re not bearish, but we think we will be presented with better opportunities.”\nUnderappreciated Growth\nThe $10.1 billionPrimecap Odyssey Growthfund (POGRX) hunts for companies with above-average earnings growth, but not one of the Big Five tech stocks can be spotted in their top 10 holdings.\nThat underweight has been painful; the fund’s 19.6% annual average return over the past five years puts it in the bottom third of large growth funds. But the managers’ willingness to stick with companies with above-average growth for the long haul, often adding to their shares in downturns, wins them fans.\nThe fund’s managers are investing in some of the broad trends driving the Big Five—like e-commerce and cloud computing—but doing it differently, says Morningstar’s Lucas. For example, the fund owns Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) instead of Amazon, opting for China’s version of an e-commerce and cloud-computing giant that also trades at a meaningful discount to the U.S. company, Lucas says. Primecap declined to comment.\nAbout 18% of the fund is invested outside the U.S. and its average price/earnings ratio is 20, cheaper than the 29 for the large growth category, according to Morningstar. Though the fund isn’t concentrated in the Big Five tech stocks, it has double the stake in healthcare, almost 30% of assets, than other large growth funds. Its top 10 positions includeEli Lilly(LLY),Biogen(BIIB),Abiomed(ABMD), andAmgen(AMGN).\nLean Profit Machines\nThe $10.3 billionJensen Quality Growth(JENSX) focuses on companies that generate 15% return on equity for 10 consecutive years—a metric that co-manager Eric Schoenstein sees as a gauge forfoundational excellenceand fortress-like competitive advantages. Amazon and Facebook don’t make the cut. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple rank among the top holdings, but Schoenstein holds roughly a third less than in the Russell 1000 Growth index. Schoenstein says he is trying to be conscious of the risk of concentration if the momentum trade reverts or regulation puts a target on these companies’ backs.\nSchoenstein’s caution and a focus on quality companies have pushed the fund toward the bottom decile of the large blend Morningstar category year to date, with a return of 11.6%. But the fund’s 17.3% average return over the past five years puts it in the top 35% of large-blend funds tracked by Morningstar. Plus, the fund’s risk-adjusted, long-term performance stands out, losing about 77% as much as the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 Growth indexes when stocks have fallen since Schoenstein began co-managing the fund in 2004, according to Morningstar.\nLately, Schoenstein has been adding to quality stocks that may not be growing as fast but are more attractively priced as investors have left them behind, such asStarbucks(SBUX)—a stock that had been too pricey until the pandemic hit. “What better business is there to be in than branded addiction?” Schoenstein asks.\nWhile offices in New York City may not get to 100% occupancy, Schoenstein sees hybrid work situations continuing to drive business to Starbucks, potentially with fewer customers but higher sales, as one person buys for multiple people. The company is also closing stores to become more efficient and moving more toward quick-serve and grab-and-go in some locations rather than an all-day café experience.\n\nInsurance is another area that Schoenstein has been adding to, with companies like Marsh & McLennan (MMC), which is dominant in multiple businesses—insurance brokerage, health benefits, and retirement asset management with Mercer. Switching costs are high in the world of insurance, and the company benefits from new trends in cybersecurity and data privacy, as well.\nAnother recent purchase: Data-analytics providerVerisk Analytics(VRSK), which serves property and casualty insurers and gets about 80% of its revenue from subscriptions and long-term agreements. The company helps take raw data and analyze it to help insurers, for example, underwrite policies. Says Schoenstein: “Some recovery is still needed because business has struggled over the past year, with business failures and companies putting [projects] on hold. So, it’s a small position, but I think about companies that are super-entrenched with their customers.”\nMultiple Managers\nUnlike the Jensen and Akre funds, which typically own 20 to 30 stocks, the $87 billionAmerican Funds Amcapfund (AMCPX) is well diversified, with more than 200 holdings, as managers hunt for the best ideas regardless of size.Abbott Laboratories(ABT),Broadcom(AVGO),EOG Resources(EOG), and Mastercard are top holdings along with four of the megacap tech quintuplets.\nBut the fund is valuation-sensitive, and its allocation to the Big Five is lower than other growth managers, hurting its performance over the past five years; its average annual return of 17.3% puts it in the bottom decile of performance. For investors looking for diversification, the fund is a relatively cheap option—charging an expense ratio of 0.68%—that isn’t beholden to a benchmark and is run by multiple managers who can hunt for their highest-conviction ideas.\nManagers favor companies with strong competitive positioning, which can allow companies to boost prices and better weather near-term inflationary periods. While that includes a healthy helping of healthcare and technology stocks, managers have also gravitated toward cyclical growth companies, including semiconductor firms, travel-related companies, auto suppliers, retailers, and financials benefiting from secular growth as well as getting an additional boost from the Covid recovery.\n“It’s very consistent, and a good core fund with a lot of good stockpickers behind it,” says Russel Kinnel, Morningstar’s director of manager research. “You want a fund to have some good technology exposure because it’s a dynamic sector.”\nGrowth on the Cheap\nThe $357 million Cambiar Opportunity fund (CAMOX) is a concentrated fund that owns roughly 40 stocks. The fund looks for relative values among industry winners that boast strong long-term demand prospects and pricing power that differentiate it from some of its peers. The fund’s 16% average annual return over the past five years helped it beat 94% of its large-value peers.\nThe fund holds Amazon, which it bought for the first time in early 2020 when the market wasn’t giving the e-commerce behemoth much value for its cloud business. It has been harder to own other megacap technology stocks, says Ania Aldrich, an investment principal at Cambiar. That’s in part because of their high valuations, but especially as exchange-traded funds continue to receive record-high inflows—$400 billion in the first half of 2021, versus $507 billion for all of last year, according to ETF.com—which contributes to the market concentration.\nInstead, the fund has focused on areas such as financials, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Charles Schwab (SCHW), that can grow in this economic environment. Both would benefit from higher interest rates, but Aldrich says that wasn’t the reason to buy the stocks. Schwab, for example, is taking market share in wealth management, and its recent acquisition of Ameritrade gives it more heft and the ability to be more cost-efficient.\nAlso attractive are companies that haven’t yet seen a full reopening of their businesses, like casino operatorPenn National Gaming(PENN), which Aldrich says is well positioned as states look for more revenue andallow online gambling, and food distributorSysco(SYY), which has yet to benefit from colleges and conferences getting back into full swing. While Sysco’s shares are up 43% in the past year, Aldrich sees more room for gains, noting that the company is a market leader and can take market share as smaller firms consolidate. Plus, it has pricing power to pass on higher commodity costs since it is a distributor.\nAnother recent addition:Uber Technologies(UBER), which Aldrich says isn’t just a reopening beneficiary but also has increased the reach of its platform by moving into food delivery and opening the door to other services. “In the past, it was hard to outperform when you weren’t involved in the [concentrated stocks], but we see these trends as transitory. As growth normalizes, the value of other stocks should be recognized.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156425528,"gmtCreate":1625234860564,"gmtModify":1703739074556,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156425528","repostId":"1158221529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158221529","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625226184,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158221529?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-02 19:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Does Palantir Have the Right Stuff to Get Back to $40?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158221529","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The next leg up for PLTR stock requires more free cash flow generation\nPalantir Technologies(NYSE:PL","content":"<p>The next leg up for PLTR stock requires more free cash flow generation</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Technologies</b>(NYSE:<b><u>PLTR</u></b>) went on a run in June. PLTR stock gained 15% on the month, almost seven times the return of the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>.</p>\n<p>There’s no question that the data analytics software company has the momentum heading into the second half of 2021. Its stock traded as high as $45 in January.</p>\n<p>Can it get back to the $40s by the end of the year? Let’s consider the possibilities.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock IPO Was $7.25</b></p>\n<p>Sometimes I think investors forget that Palantir’s been a public company for just nine months,going public&nbsp;on Sept. 30 with a direct listing reference price of $7.25. It gained 31% on its first day of trading and is up more than 150% since then.</p>\n<p>Were it to get to $40 by the end of the year, its annualized return would be approximately 10 percentage points higher than today. So, if you bought today – as I write this, it’s trading around $26 – you’d be looking at an annualized return of almost 104%.</p>\n<p>But it’s got to get there first.</p>\n<p>When I last wrote about Palantir in early May, I sent a mixed message to readers.</p>\n<p>On the one hand, I thought CEO and co-founder Alex Karp’s 2020 compensation was exceptionally obscene. Karp took home nearly&nbsp;$1.1 billion in cash and stock compensation. His pay accounted for 4.9% of Palantir’s revenue for 2020.</p>\n<p>His compensation was exceptional; The<i>&nbsp;New York Times</i>&nbsp;reported that Karp was the&nbsp;highest-paid CEO of a publicly traded companyin 2020.</p>\n<p>So, not only do you have to be good with the fact that Palantir has an exceedingly high valuation at&nbsp;40.7x sales, but you also have to reconcile the fact you’re buying a stock whose CEO is tops in CEO compensation, putting him on the AFL-CIO’s dartboard as public enemy No. 1.</p>\n<p>But go ahead and make the play.</p>\n<p><b>What’s to Like About Palantir</b></p>\n<p>I finished my May article by suggesting readers wait for the teens, preferably $15, before buying PLTR stock. It got as low as $17.06 on May 11 but never made it to $15. Since the low, it’s up 55%. I had the right idea. But got a little greedy with the $15 buy call.</p>\n<p>Ah, you gotta hate market timing.</p>\n<p>In April, I suggested that as long as the&nbsp;<b>Ark Innovation ETF</b>(NYSEARCA:<b><u>ARKK</u></b>)&nbsp;continued to hold Palantir&nbsp;in the middle of the pack in terms of the fund’s holdings, it remained a stock to buy in the teens. That feeling didn’t change in May.</p>\n<p>However, Cathie Woods’ ARKK weighting has increased to 15th spot as of July 1, at 2.38%. That puts it just outside the top 10 and much higher than in April. Her commitment to Palantir’s getting stronger, although some of that is due to capital appreciation.</p>\n<p>So, what is it that Wood finds so irresistible about Palantir?</p>\n<p>I’ll lean on&nbsp;<i>InvestorPlace’s</i>&nbsp;Mark Hake for a possible answer.</p>\n<p>Hake recently argued that its&nbsp;tremendous free cash flow(FCF) and high FCF margin suggest it’s worth at least $33.59 per share, moving higher as it generates increased FCF from increased revenues.</p>\n<p>I love FCF stocks, so his comments piqued my interest.</p>\n<p>According to<i>Morningstar,</i>Palantir has a trailing 12-month (TTM) FCF of&nbsp;$110 million. Based on a market cap of $49.5 billion, it has an FCF yield of 0.22%. Thus, its FCF yield is 9.2%, which is good, if not great. For comparison,<b>Apple’s</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>) is 27.8%.</p>\n<p>However, Hake’s point is that the probability of its FCF margin moving into the teens is likely. So, based on a projected 15% FCF margin and $2.4 billion in revenue (double the current TTM sales), it would have $360 million in FCF.</p>\n<p>Assuming the FCF yield were to stay as it is at 0.22%, it would have a market capitalization of $164 billion. Based on&nbsp;1.88 billion shares outstanding, we get a share price of $87.23.</p>\n<p>Now, a lot has to fall into place for this to happen, and none of it will come to fruition in 2021 or 2022, for that matter.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p>\n<p>I personally wouldn’t buy PLTR stock because of Karp’s compensation. It’s truly obscene.</p>\n<p>However, for those who don’t care about CEOs being overpaid, I think the current downside to PLTR isn’t all that great. It’s on a roll. Things in motion tend to stay in motion until an event gets in the way.</p>\n<p>So, if you get in for the short-term, say 60 to 90 days, you’ll probably do OK. But if you get in for the long term, I would look for its FCF margin to get to 15% and its FCF yield to move well above 1%. Until then, you’re going to get a lot of valuation naysayers.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does Palantir Have the Right Stuff to Get Back to $40?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes Palantir Have the Right Stuff to Get Back to $40?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 19:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/07/does-pltr-stock-have-the-right-stuff-to-get-back-to-40/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The next leg up for PLTR stock requires more free cash flow generation\nPalantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) went on a run in June. PLTR stock gained 15% on the month, almost seven times the return of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/07/does-pltr-stock-have-the-right-stuff-to-get-back-to-40/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/07/does-pltr-stock-have-the-right-stuff-to-get-back-to-40/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158221529","content_text":"The next leg up for PLTR stock requires more free cash flow generation\nPalantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) went on a run in June. PLTR stock gained 15% on the month, almost seven times the return of the S&P 500.\nThere’s no question that the data analytics software company has the momentum heading into the second half of 2021. Its stock traded as high as $45 in January.\nCan it get back to the $40s by the end of the year? Let’s consider the possibilities.\nPLTR Stock IPO Was $7.25\nSometimes I think investors forget that Palantir’s been a public company for just nine months,going public on Sept. 30 with a direct listing reference price of $7.25. It gained 31% on its first day of trading and is up more than 150% since then.\nWere it to get to $40 by the end of the year, its annualized return would be approximately 10 percentage points higher than today. So, if you bought today – as I write this, it’s trading around $26 – you’d be looking at an annualized return of almost 104%.\nBut it’s got to get there first.\nWhen I last wrote about Palantir in early May, I sent a mixed message to readers.\nOn the one hand, I thought CEO and co-founder Alex Karp’s 2020 compensation was exceptionally obscene. Karp took home nearly $1.1 billion in cash and stock compensation. His pay accounted for 4.9% of Palantir’s revenue for 2020.\nHis compensation was exceptional; The New York Times reported that Karp was the highest-paid CEO of a publicly traded companyin 2020.\nSo, not only do you have to be good with the fact that Palantir has an exceedingly high valuation at 40.7x sales, but you also have to reconcile the fact you’re buying a stock whose CEO is tops in CEO compensation, putting him on the AFL-CIO’s dartboard as public enemy No. 1.\nBut go ahead and make the play.\nWhat’s to Like About Palantir\nI finished my May article by suggesting readers wait for the teens, preferably $15, before buying PLTR stock. It got as low as $17.06 on May 11 but never made it to $15. Since the low, it’s up 55%. I had the right idea. But got a little greedy with the $15 buy call.\nAh, you gotta hate market timing.\nIn April, I suggested that as long as the Ark Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK) continued to hold Palantir in the middle of the pack in terms of the fund’s holdings, it remained a stock to buy in the teens. That feeling didn’t change in May.\nHowever, Cathie Woods’ ARKK weighting has increased to 15th spot as of July 1, at 2.38%. That puts it just outside the top 10 and much higher than in April. Her commitment to Palantir’s getting stronger, although some of that is due to capital appreciation.\nSo, what is it that Wood finds so irresistible about Palantir?\nI’ll lean on InvestorPlace’s Mark Hake for a possible answer.\nHake recently argued that its tremendous free cash flow(FCF) and high FCF margin suggest it’s worth at least $33.59 per share, moving higher as it generates increased FCF from increased revenues.\nI love FCF stocks, so his comments piqued my interest.\nAccording toMorningstar,Palantir has a trailing 12-month (TTM) FCF of $110 million. Based on a market cap of $49.5 billion, it has an FCF yield of 0.22%. Thus, its FCF yield is 9.2%, which is good, if not great. For comparison,Apple’s(NASDAQ:AAPL) is 27.8%.\nHowever, Hake’s point is that the probability of its FCF margin moving into the teens is likely. So, based on a projected 15% FCF margin and $2.4 billion in revenue (double the current TTM sales), it would have $360 million in FCF.\nAssuming the FCF yield were to stay as it is at 0.22%, it would have a market capitalization of $164 billion. Based on 1.88 billion shares outstanding, we get a share price of $87.23.\nNow, a lot has to fall into place for this to happen, and none of it will come to fruition in 2021 or 2022, for that matter.\nThe Bottom Line\nI personally wouldn’t buy PLTR stock because of Karp’s compensation. It’s truly obscene.\nHowever, for those who don’t care about CEOs being overpaid, I think the current downside to PLTR isn’t all that great. It’s on a roll. Things in motion tend to stay in motion until an event gets in the way.\nSo, if you get in for the short-term, say 60 to 90 days, you’ll probably do OK. But if you get in for the long term, I would look for its FCF margin to get to 15% and its FCF yield to move well above 1%. Until then, you’re going to get a lot of valuation naysayers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158813717,"gmtCreate":1625143146339,"gmtModify":1703736998234,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158813717","repostId":"2148424988","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148424988","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1625133124,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148424988?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 17:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For July 1, 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148424988","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wall Street expects <b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> Inc</b> (NASDAQ:WBA) to report quarterly earnings at $1.17 per share on revenue of $33.76 billion before the opening bell. Walgreens shares gained 0.7% to $53.00 in after-hours trading.</li>\n <li><b>Micron Technology, Inc. </b> (NASDAQ:MU) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter. The company also agreed to sell its Lehi, Utah, fab to Texas Instruments. Micron shares 2.3% to $83.05 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts are expecting <b> McCormick &amp; Company, Incorporated</b> (NYSE:MKC) to have earned $0.61 per share on revenue of $1.47 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. McCormick shares fell 0.1% to $88.29 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Realty Income Corporation</b> (NYSE:O) priced an underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of its common stock for expected gross proceeds of around $519 million. Realty Income shares fell 1.3% to $65.85 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts expect <b> Acuity Brands, Inc.</b> (NYSE:AYI) to report quarterly earnings at $2.27 per share on revenue of $839.75 million before the opening bell. Acuity Brands shares gained 1.5% to $189.89 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For July 1, 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For July 1, 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-01 17:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wall Street expects <b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> Inc</b> (NASDAQ:WBA) to report quarterly earnings at $1.17 per share on revenue of $33.76 billion before the opening bell. Walgreens shares gained 0.7% to $53.00 in after-hours trading.</li>\n <li><b>Micron Technology, Inc. </b> (NASDAQ:MU) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter. The company also agreed to sell its Lehi, Utah, fab to Texas Instruments. Micron shares 2.3% to $83.05 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts are expecting <b> McCormick &amp; Company, Incorporated</b> (NYSE:MKC) to have earned $0.61 per share on revenue of $1.47 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. McCormick shares fell 0.1% to $88.29 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Realty Income Corporation</b> (NYSE:O) priced an underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of its common stock for expected gross proceeds of around $519 million. Realty Income shares fell 1.3% to $65.85 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts expect <b> Acuity Brands, Inc.</b> (NYSE:AYI) to report quarterly earnings at $2.27 per share on revenue of $839.75 million before the opening bell. Acuity Brands shares gained 1.5% to $189.89 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"O":"Realty Income Corp","AYI":"Acuity Brands Inc","MU":"美光科技","MKC":"味好美","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148424988","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects  Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (NASDAQ:WBA) to report quarterly earnings at $1.17 per share on revenue of $33.76 billion before the opening bell. Walgreens shares gained 0.7% to $53.00 in after-hours trading.\nMicron Technology, Inc.  (NASDAQ:MU) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter. The company also agreed to sell its Lehi, Utah, fab to Texas Instruments. Micron shares 2.3% to $83.05 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting  McCormick & Company, Incorporated (NYSE:MKC) to have earned $0.61 per share on revenue of $1.47 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. McCormick shares fell 0.1% to $88.29 in after-hours trading.\n\n\nRealty Income Corporation (NYSE:O) priced an underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of its common stock for expected gross proceeds of around $519 million. Realty Income shares fell 1.3% to $65.85 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts expect  Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:AYI) to report quarterly earnings at $2.27 per share on revenue of $839.75 million before the opening bell. Acuity Brands shares gained 1.5% to $189.89 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158805845,"gmtCreate":1625141874487,"gmtModify":1703736961228,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158805845","repostId":"2148840288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158806162,"gmtCreate":1625141749756,"gmtModify":1703736958937,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088222297029790","authorIdStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158806162","repostId":"1160838487","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160838487","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625127624,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160838487?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 16:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Krispy Kreme IPO: What To Know About This Stock Before Buying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160838487","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nKrispy Kreme, Inc. is returning to the public markets after going private in 2016.\nThe grow","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNUT\">Krispy Kreme, Inc.</a></b> is returning to the public markets after going private in 2016.</li>\n <li>The growth story here looks intriguing, centering on expansion into new markets domestically and overseas.</li>\n <li>But what will be DNUT stock - has significant valuation questions, even when looking closely.</li>\n <li>The initial range looks potentially aggressive, and suggests some caution toward early trading.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>There's a modest irony to the fact that Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is holding its second initial public offering in 2021. After the company's first IPO in 2000, Krispy Kreme stock looked a bit like some of this market's most popular names.</p>\n<p>What was then KKD stock was heavily popular with retail investors — and heavily shorted by hedge funds. That short interest made the stock hard to borrow (a close friend worked in stock lending at the time, and KKD might have been the most desired issue out there) — and appeared tocreate a 'short squeeze'that kept the stock trading well above its fundamentals. Krispy Kreme stock wasn't quite a 'meme stock' in the way that GameStop (GME) or AMC Entertainment (AMC) are, but it could be seen as an ancestor of the names that have garnered so much attention this year.</p>\n<p>It remains to be seen how individual investors treat DNUT stock, but there is an interesting story here. Despite being more than 80 years old, Krispy Kreme sees room for expansion both in the U.S. and overseas. Results since the 2016 acquisition by JAB Holdings look impressive. As a business, Krispy Kreme does look attractive.</p>\n<p>As a stock, however, there's already an obvious concern: valuation. The IPO range doesn't exactly move Krispy Kreme stock into meme territory in terms of the fundamentals, but the anticipated price does seem to imply that an awful lot goes right going forward. Add in a broad and deep lock-up expiration on the horizon, and it looks like caution should be advised here.</p>\n<p><b>When Will Krispy Kreme Go Public?</b></p>\n<p>It hasn't yet been announced exactly when DNUT stock will start trading. Given that the range has been announced, it should be relatively soon. The short week after the July 4th holiday is one possibility, though Krispy Kreme might try and get the IPO completed before the long weekend.</p>\n<p>Krispy Kreme is selling 26.7 million shares in the offering, plus 4 million more in an underwriter's option. DNUT stock will be listed on the NASDAQ — interestingly, a change from its previous listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The proceeds are going to reduce — though not eliminate — existing debt on the balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>How Much Will Krispy Kreme Stock Be?</b></p>\n<p>The range for the Krispy Kreme IPO is$21 to $24 per share. On its face, that seems reasonably high.</p>\n<p>Per the amended S-1 (see p.19), Krispy Kreme will have164.9 million shares outstandingafter the IPO, assuming the underwriters' option is exercised in full. Should DNUT stock price at $24, Krispy Kreme would have a market capitalization just shy of $4 billion. Even with the IPO proceeds going to pay down the company's term loan, net debt will still be about $541 million.</p>\n<p>That in turn implies an enterprise value for Krispy Kreme of about $4.5 billion. From a number of viewpoints, that seems like an aggressive valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Is DNUT Stock Overvalued Already?</b></p>\n<p>Notably, JABonly paid $1.35 billionto acquire Krispy Kreme when the deal closed less than five and a half years ago. At the high end of the range, the company's valuation would be more than triple that figure.</p>\n<p>There's someanchoring biasat play there, and as we shall see Krispy Kreme's results have improved in the interim. Still, when we've seen IPOs over the past year like Snowflake (SNOW) and Airbnb (ABNB) soar out of the gate — yet that past valuation does seem to hover any hopes for a huge post-IPO spike.</p>\n<p>The 2016 valuation isn't the only concern. Based on recent results, DNUT stock looks awfully expensive. Adjusted EBITDA over the twelve months through the first quarter of this year is $163 million.</p>\n<p>(A technical note: that number comes from results cited in the company'sinitial S-1 filing. Interestingly, in the amended filing, Krispy Kreme disclosed a lower figure after excluding the adjustment of pre-opening costs not related to the massive 24-hour store in Times Square. It's not clear why that change was made; it's possible auditors thought the full exclusion of all pre-opening costs was too aggressive.)</p>\n<p>At $163 million, EV/EBITDA is a healthy 28x. Dunkin' Brands went private at24.5x trailing twelve-month EBITDA— and traded in the ~20x range before the acquisition was announced. Starbucks (SBUX) at the moment trades at about 25x 2019 EBITDA (results since obviously have seen an enormous impact from the novel coronavirus pandemic; Krispy Kreme does not appear to have seen quite the same pressure). Domino's Pizza (DPZ), one of the best franchised businesses out there, is inthe 25x range; McDonald's (MCD) tradedin the high teensbefore the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Using adjusted net income, valuation seems even more extreme. Trailing twelve-month net income of $54.7 million (again, using the more favorable numbers from the initial S-1) suggests a price-to-earnings multiple of 72x. That's a figure seemingly more suitable to a software play than a donut seller.</p>\n<p><b>Is Krispy Kreme Profitable? Kind Of</b></p>\n<p>These multiples do look rather high. But it's not as if the underwriters and the company chose the $21 to $24 range simply because that's where they hoped the stock would trade. The lead underwriters don't want to see the Krispy Kreme IPO tank. Nor does the company. During the 'roadshow' process, the bankers are gauging demand, and using that information to price the offering accordingly.</p>\n<p>So there are institutional investors out there who have indicated they might be willing to pay $24 — which in turn means they project upside from that price. What are they seeing to support that optimism?</p>\n<p>There are answers to that question. First, Krispy Kreme has performed rather well since the acquisition even if net income numbers don't quite show that. GAAP net income figures in fact were negative the last two years, though there's a lot of noise in those numbers.</p>\n<p>Adjusted numbers are positive, but on their face not much better. The TTM adjusted net income figure of $54.7 million, for instance, is barely abovethe $53.5 millionposted in fiscal 2015 (which ended Jan. 31, 2016). But Krispy Kreme now faces significant interest expense as a result of the borrowings that financed the go-private. Krispy Kreme paid $57 million in interest last year — and $1.3 million in FY15.</p>\n<p>The company also has aggressively invested behind the business. Costs in NYC alone were $6.5 million in 2020. The company overhauled its wholesale business, moving to a \"hub and spoke\" model in which Krispy Kreme \"Hot Light Theater\" shops serve as suppliers to DFD (delivered fresh daily) outlets in supermarkets and convenience stores.</p>\n<p>All told, there's been spending here that won't repeat going forward. Adjusted EBITDA, which excludes many of those expenses, more than doubled between fiscal 2015 and fiscal 2020 (fiscal years now roughly match up with calendar years). Organic revenue growth, which excludes the impact of franchise acquisitions, has been reasonably solid: 3% in 2018, 5% in 2019, despite some impacts from significant changes to the business model. The top line (again, excluding acquisitions), even grew 1% last year despite the impact of the pandemic. An 8% print in the first quarter of 2021 gets the year off to a good start.</p>\n<p>This does seem like a much better business than it was five-plus years ago. JAB has made a number of significant changes, the effects of which no doubt were muted by the craziness of 2020. Going forward, fresher products and more distribution should be able to drive some growth.</p>\n<p>There's a big opportunity to acquire more customers as well. Krispy Kreme sees room for expansion within the U.S., with the company highlighting the New York and Chicago metropolitan areas as particular targets. Those two areas have about 28 million residents combined, and Boston and Minneapolis too represent potentially fertile ground.</p>\n<p>International expansion is another driver. Over the past three and a half years, Krispy Kreme spent $466 million to acquire franchises, the majority of which were overseas. China, Brazil, and Western Europe present opportunities going forward. International markets drove 27% of revenue in 2019 and 24% last year.</p>\n<p>Krispy Kreme also owns 75% of Insomnia Cookies, which appears to be a hugely profitable and high-margin business. Insomnia's direct-to-consumer experience should underpin Krispy Kreme's own efforts in e-commerce and delivery.</p>\n<p>Finally, there's the impact of the pandemic to consider. Krispy Kreme's 2020 results were far from awful. Adjusted EBITDA increased 1.2%, and again organic revenue rose 1%. But the U.S. and Canada segment actually posted a 30% increase. Some of that growth came from franchise acquisitions, which shifted profits into that segment from the Market Development segment. Still, overseas markets, where pandemic restrictions were more onerous (notably in the U.K. and Ireland) were a notable drag, hitting consolidated growth by nearly six percentage points.</p>\n<p><b>Should You Buy Krispy Kreme's IPO?</b></p>\n<p>At the very least, there's more here than the headlines suggest, and little reason to dismiss the case for DNUT stock as paying 70x earnings for literal donuts. Between interest expense savings (which appear to be 11 cents per share after-tax) and some post-pandemic normalization, it's not difficult to model this as a business whose multiples are more in line with the sector. Interest expense alone gets adjusted EPS to 44 cents; the 2022 figure could well exceed 60 cents, getting P/E down below 40x. Similarly, international improvements and other \"return to normalcy\" benefits suggest a path toward EV/EBITDA moving into the low 20s.</p>\n<p>Neither multiple makes Krispy Kreme a deep value play, certainly. But on an EV/EBITDA basis at least, DNUT slots in between the likes of SBUX and DNUT on one hand and MCD on the other. That makes some sense. Krispy Kreme certainly isn't as good a business as those giants — but it also has far more room for expansion and growth. McDonald's and Starbucks, in particular, face markets that are saturated or very close to it.</p>\n<p>In fact, the case for upside in Krispy Kreme stock is that it should trade at a<i>premium</i>to peers. Given the improvements in underlying performance, the changes to the business model, and the room for expansion, that case isn't as crazy as it sounds. Indeed, there's already a template for that kind of trading. Shake Shack (SHAK) has looked expensive (and sometimes ridiculously expensive) since it went public in early 2015. SHAK stock still has gained 133% from its IPO price. That chain'sinternational opportunityhas been one key reason why.</p>\n<p>There are two big long-term problems, however. The first is that the valuation is incorporating some level of success, and that problem only gets worse if Krispy Kreme stock sees a post-IPO 'pop'. This is a good business (and I personally love the donuts), but it's not necessarily a great business yet. As the company itself noted in the S-1, the average customer visits less than three times a year. There's some logic to DNUT stock trading at a mid-20s EV/EBITDA multiple, but getting to that multiple being<i>compelling</i>is a different story.</p>\n<p>The second, more important, problem is that a case based on expansion requires that the expansion be successful. Krispy Kreme hasn't proven that will be the case. The company has failed in entering the Boston marketnot once, but twice. (Admittedly, New England is home turf for Dunkin'.) The franchise acquisitions generally appear to have occurred because those franchises were underperforming, and it's not clear why new franchises overseas won't have a few that perform similarly.</p>\n<p>There's also a lockup to keep an eye on. After the IPO, JAB is distributing most of the non-IPO shares to \"approximately 100 minority partners.\" Those partners are subject to a 180-day lockup; after that, there could be some aggressive selling.</p>\n<p>All told, the story seems better than might be thought, but not quite good enough to support a $4.5 billion enterprise value (or at least much upside from that level). At the right price, DNUT would be more attractive; my personal target would be something closer to $18 (~20x 2021 EBITDA). And we could see that price. The 2021 IPO market has been notably softer than last year's. AppLovin (APP) tanked out of the gate in April, and provideda strong buying opportunitynot long after. I'd love to see the same thing play out with DNUT stock, because at $24 I'm just not convinced there's any need to rush in.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Krispy Kreme IPO: What To Know About This Stock Before Buying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKrispy Kreme IPO: What To Know About This Stock Before Buying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 16:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436570-krispy-kreme-ipo-what-to-know-before-buying><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nKrispy Kreme, Inc. is returning to the public markets after going private in 2016.\nThe growth story here looks intriguing, centering on expansion into new markets domestically and overseas.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436570-krispy-kreme-ipo-what-to-know-before-buying\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DNUT":"Krispy Kreme, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436570-krispy-kreme-ipo-what-to-know-before-buying","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1160838487","content_text":"Summary\n\nKrispy Kreme, Inc. is returning to the public markets after going private in 2016.\nThe growth story here looks intriguing, centering on expansion into new markets domestically and overseas.\nBut what will be DNUT stock - has significant valuation questions, even when looking closely.\nThe initial range looks potentially aggressive, and suggests some caution toward early trading.\n\nThere's a modest irony to the fact that Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is holding its second initial public offering in 2021. After the company's first IPO in 2000, Krispy Kreme stock looked a bit like some of this market's most popular names.\nWhat was then KKD stock was heavily popular with retail investors — and heavily shorted by hedge funds. That short interest made the stock hard to borrow (a close friend worked in stock lending at the time, and KKD might have been the most desired issue out there) — and appeared tocreate a 'short squeeze'that kept the stock trading well above its fundamentals. Krispy Kreme stock wasn't quite a 'meme stock' in the way that GameStop (GME) or AMC Entertainment (AMC) are, but it could be seen as an ancestor of the names that have garnered so much attention this year.\nIt remains to be seen how individual investors treat DNUT stock, but there is an interesting story here. Despite being more than 80 years old, Krispy Kreme sees room for expansion both in the U.S. and overseas. Results since the 2016 acquisition by JAB Holdings look impressive. As a business, Krispy Kreme does look attractive.\nAs a stock, however, there's already an obvious concern: valuation. The IPO range doesn't exactly move Krispy Kreme stock into meme territory in terms of the fundamentals, but the anticipated price does seem to imply that an awful lot goes right going forward. Add in a broad and deep lock-up expiration on the horizon, and it looks like caution should be advised here.\nWhen Will Krispy Kreme Go Public?\nIt hasn't yet been announced exactly when DNUT stock will start trading. Given that the range has been announced, it should be relatively soon. The short week after the July 4th holiday is one possibility, though Krispy Kreme might try and get the IPO completed before the long weekend.\nKrispy Kreme is selling 26.7 million shares in the offering, plus 4 million more in an underwriter's option. DNUT stock will be listed on the NASDAQ — interestingly, a change from its previous listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The proceeds are going to reduce — though not eliminate — existing debt on the balance sheet.\nHow Much Will Krispy Kreme Stock Be?\nThe range for the Krispy Kreme IPO is$21 to $24 per share. On its face, that seems reasonably high.\nPer the amended S-1 (see p.19), Krispy Kreme will have164.9 million shares outstandingafter the IPO, assuming the underwriters' option is exercised in full. Should DNUT stock price at $24, Krispy Kreme would have a market capitalization just shy of $4 billion. Even with the IPO proceeds going to pay down the company's term loan, net debt will still be about $541 million.\nThat in turn implies an enterprise value for Krispy Kreme of about $4.5 billion. From a number of viewpoints, that seems like an aggressive valuation.\nIs DNUT Stock Overvalued Already?\nNotably, JABonly paid $1.35 billionto acquire Krispy Kreme when the deal closed less than five and a half years ago. At the high end of the range, the company's valuation would be more than triple that figure.\nThere's someanchoring biasat play there, and as we shall see Krispy Kreme's results have improved in the interim. Still, when we've seen IPOs over the past year like Snowflake (SNOW) and Airbnb (ABNB) soar out of the gate — yet that past valuation does seem to hover any hopes for a huge post-IPO spike.\nThe 2016 valuation isn't the only concern. Based on recent results, DNUT stock looks awfully expensive. Adjusted EBITDA over the twelve months through the first quarter of this year is $163 million.\n(A technical note: that number comes from results cited in the company'sinitial S-1 filing. Interestingly, in the amended filing, Krispy Kreme disclosed a lower figure after excluding the adjustment of pre-opening costs not related to the massive 24-hour store in Times Square. It's not clear why that change was made; it's possible auditors thought the full exclusion of all pre-opening costs was too aggressive.)\nAt $163 million, EV/EBITDA is a healthy 28x. Dunkin' Brands went private at24.5x trailing twelve-month EBITDA— and traded in the ~20x range before the acquisition was announced. Starbucks (SBUX) at the moment trades at about 25x 2019 EBITDA (results since obviously have seen an enormous impact from the novel coronavirus pandemic; Krispy Kreme does not appear to have seen quite the same pressure). Domino's Pizza (DPZ), one of the best franchised businesses out there, is inthe 25x range; McDonald's (MCD) tradedin the high teensbefore the pandemic.\nUsing adjusted net income, valuation seems even more extreme. Trailing twelve-month net income of $54.7 million (again, using the more favorable numbers from the initial S-1) suggests a price-to-earnings multiple of 72x. That's a figure seemingly more suitable to a software play than a donut seller.\nIs Krispy Kreme Profitable? Kind Of\nThese multiples do look rather high. But it's not as if the underwriters and the company chose the $21 to $24 range simply because that's where they hoped the stock would trade. The lead underwriters don't want to see the Krispy Kreme IPO tank. Nor does the company. During the 'roadshow' process, the bankers are gauging demand, and using that information to price the offering accordingly.\nSo there are institutional investors out there who have indicated they might be willing to pay $24 — which in turn means they project upside from that price. What are they seeing to support that optimism?\nThere are answers to that question. First, Krispy Kreme has performed rather well since the acquisition even if net income numbers don't quite show that. GAAP net income figures in fact were negative the last two years, though there's a lot of noise in those numbers.\nAdjusted numbers are positive, but on their face not much better. The TTM adjusted net income figure of $54.7 million, for instance, is barely abovethe $53.5 millionposted in fiscal 2015 (which ended Jan. 31, 2016). But Krispy Kreme now faces significant interest expense as a result of the borrowings that financed the go-private. Krispy Kreme paid $57 million in interest last year — and $1.3 million in FY15.\nThe company also has aggressively invested behind the business. Costs in NYC alone were $6.5 million in 2020. The company overhauled its wholesale business, moving to a \"hub and spoke\" model in which Krispy Kreme \"Hot Light Theater\" shops serve as suppliers to DFD (delivered fresh daily) outlets in supermarkets and convenience stores.\nAll told, there's been spending here that won't repeat going forward. Adjusted EBITDA, which excludes many of those expenses, more than doubled between fiscal 2015 and fiscal 2020 (fiscal years now roughly match up with calendar years). Organic revenue growth, which excludes the impact of franchise acquisitions, has been reasonably solid: 3% in 2018, 5% in 2019, despite some impacts from significant changes to the business model. The top line (again, excluding acquisitions), even grew 1% last year despite the impact of the pandemic. An 8% print in the first quarter of 2021 gets the year off to a good start.\nThis does seem like a much better business than it was five-plus years ago. JAB has made a number of significant changes, the effects of which no doubt were muted by the craziness of 2020. Going forward, fresher products and more distribution should be able to drive some growth.\nThere's a big opportunity to acquire more customers as well. Krispy Kreme sees room for expansion within the U.S., with the company highlighting the New York and Chicago metropolitan areas as particular targets. Those two areas have about 28 million residents combined, and Boston and Minneapolis too represent potentially fertile ground.\nInternational expansion is another driver. Over the past three and a half years, Krispy Kreme spent $466 million to acquire franchises, the majority of which were overseas. China, Brazil, and Western Europe present opportunities going forward. International markets drove 27% of revenue in 2019 and 24% last year.\nKrispy Kreme also owns 75% of Insomnia Cookies, which appears to be a hugely profitable and high-margin business. Insomnia's direct-to-consumer experience should underpin Krispy Kreme's own efforts in e-commerce and delivery.\nFinally, there's the impact of the pandemic to consider. Krispy Kreme's 2020 results were far from awful. Adjusted EBITDA increased 1.2%, and again organic revenue rose 1%. But the U.S. and Canada segment actually posted a 30% increase. Some of that growth came from franchise acquisitions, which shifted profits into that segment from the Market Development segment. Still, overseas markets, where pandemic restrictions were more onerous (notably in the U.K. and Ireland) were a notable drag, hitting consolidated growth by nearly six percentage points.\nShould You Buy Krispy Kreme's IPO?\nAt the very least, there's more here than the headlines suggest, and little reason to dismiss the case for DNUT stock as paying 70x earnings for literal donuts. Between interest expense savings (which appear to be 11 cents per share after-tax) and some post-pandemic normalization, it's not difficult to model this as a business whose multiples are more in line with the sector. Interest expense alone gets adjusted EPS to 44 cents; the 2022 figure could well exceed 60 cents, getting P/E down below 40x. Similarly, international improvements and other \"return to normalcy\" benefits suggest a path toward EV/EBITDA moving into the low 20s.\nNeither multiple makes Krispy Kreme a deep value play, certainly. But on an EV/EBITDA basis at least, DNUT slots in between the likes of SBUX and DNUT on one hand and MCD on the other. That makes some sense. Krispy Kreme certainly isn't as good a business as those giants — but it also has far more room for expansion and growth. McDonald's and Starbucks, in particular, face markets that are saturated or very close to it.\nIn fact, the case for upside in Krispy Kreme stock is that it should trade at apremiumto peers. Given the improvements in underlying performance, the changes to the business model, and the room for expansion, that case isn't as crazy as it sounds. Indeed, there's already a template for that kind of trading. Shake Shack (SHAK) has looked expensive (and sometimes ridiculously expensive) since it went public in early 2015. SHAK stock still has gained 133% from its IPO price. That chain'sinternational opportunityhas been one key reason why.\nThere are two big long-term problems, however. The first is that the valuation is incorporating some level of success, and that problem only gets worse if Krispy Kreme stock sees a post-IPO 'pop'. This is a good business (and I personally love the donuts), but it's not necessarily a great business yet. As the company itself noted in the S-1, the average customer visits less than three times a year. There's some logic to DNUT stock trading at a mid-20s EV/EBITDA multiple, but getting to that multiple beingcompellingis a different story.\nThe second, more important, problem is that a case based on expansion requires that the expansion be successful. Krispy Kreme hasn't proven that will be the case. The company has failed in entering the Boston marketnot once, but twice. (Admittedly, New England is home turf for Dunkin'.) The franchise acquisitions generally appear to have occurred because those franchises were underperforming, and it's not clear why new franchises overseas won't have a few that perform similarly.\nThere's also a lockup to keep an eye on. After the IPO, JAB is distributing most of the non-IPO shares to \"approximately 100 minority partners.\" Those partners are subject to a 180-day lockup; after that, there could be some aggressive selling.\nAll told, the story seems better than might be thought, but not quite good enough to support a $4.5 billion enterprise value (or at least much upside from that level). At the right price, DNUT would be more attractive; my personal target would be something closer to $18 (~20x 2021 EBITDA). And we could see that price. The 2021 IPO market has been notably softer than last year's. AppLovin (APP) tanked out of the gate in April, and provideda strong buying opportunitynot long after. I'd love to see the same thing play out with DNUT stock, because at $24 I'm just not convinced there's any need to rush in.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":157077178,"gmtCreate":1625558569194,"gmtModify":1703743659097,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Read","listText":"Good Read","text":"Good Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157077178","repostId":"1103271988","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155107728,"gmtCreate":1625383472364,"gmtModify":1703741120006,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Read","listText":"Good Read","text":"Good Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155107728","repostId":"1189605893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189605893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625363433,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189605893?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-04 09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Big Tech Stumbles, the Market Can Fall Hard. These 5 Funds Can Help.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189605893","media":"Barron's","summary":"It is possible to have too much of a good thing. After riding five megacap technology stocks to new highs after new highs, investors’ portfolios may be uncomfortably concentrated in these winners at a time that some strategists see a potential turn ahead in the markets.Investors’ portfolios are chock-full of these stocks, leaving them less diversified for a possible turn in the market. These companies are already beginning to slow down. Take Amazon, which accounts for roughly 4% of the S&P 500—m","content":"<p>It is possible to have too much of a good thing. After riding five megacap technology stocks to new highs after new highs, investors’ portfolios may be uncomfortably concentrated in these winners at a time that some strategists see a potential turn ahead in the markets.</p>\n<p>Owning the Big Five—Apple(ticker: AAPL),Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN),Facebook(FB), andAlphabet’sGoogle (GOOGL)—has been lucrative: These companies have logged gains of 125% to 245% since the beginning of 2019. These stocks are widely held, not just by index investors, but also among all kinds of active fund managers—including those who don’t typically own growth companies.</p>\n<p>Together, the five companies account for almost 22% of theS&amp;P 500index. Of course, the Nifty Fifty stocks dominated the 1970s, and blue-chip stalwarts such asIBM(IBM) andAT&amp;T(T) ruled the 1980s. Those companies may have wielded even more influence over the broad economy than today’s biggest companies do, but the level of market concentration is higher now, and the Big Five’s impact on the broad market is much greater because of their size, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. Apple and Microsoft are the first U.S. stocks whose market values have soared past $2 trillion. Though it has slipped a bit this year, Apple hit peak concentration for a single stock in the S&amp;P 500 last year at about 7%, higher than IBM’s in its heyday.</p>\n<p>There are signs that investor appetite for risk is waning, which could hurt the prospects for the growth of Big Tech. There has beena selloff in speculative cornersof the market, such as cryptocurrencies and special purpose acquisition companies, better known as SPACs. And, of course, there is therising consternationabout both inflation andinterest ratesmoving higher. If the Big Fiveslow downor tumble, the entire market—including all index investors—will feel it. If these stocks decline by 10%, for instance, in order for the S&amp;P 500 to keep trading flat, the bottom 100 stocks in the index would have to rise by a collective 75%, according toGoldman Sachs.This dynamic explains why narrow market breadth has often preceded big losses.</p>\n<p><b>When Less May Be More</b></p>\n<p>These funds are more diversified than the S&amp;P 500, and could be more resilient if the tech megacaps stumble.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d308adf067ef3205da5f7c1bddb75e77\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Investors’ portfolios are chock-full of these stocks, leaving them less diversified for a possible turn in the market. These companies are already beginning to slow down. Take Amazon, which accounts for roughly 4% of the S&amp;P 500—more than the energy, real estate, materials, or utilities sectors. Amazon hasn’t hit an all-time high this year, and has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 25 percentage points since September 2020 amid questions about the company’s e-commerce growth. Add in regulatory pressure, which could make the path ahead for these companies rockier, such as a House panel’s approval of sweeping legislation last month that could curb the dominance of companies like Google and Facebook.</p>\n<p>A global recovery could also make the Big Five stocks less special. “The story line with megacap tech stocks has been that economic growth has been hard to find and rates so low that you wanted to own powerful growth stocks,” says Scott Opsal, director of research at Leuthold Group. “But for those who think the economy has room to run, you don’t have to pay up for the growth that investors were willing to pay for in 2018 or 2019.” For Opsal, the changing backdrop is reason for a barbell approach, owning some of the technology winners but also diversifying into a wider array of more value-oriented and smaller stocks.</p>\n<p>With the market so concentrated in a handful of megacap tech stocks, Opsal says that investors may want the type of funds that do what the fund consultants advise against: be willing to drift out of their lane, and be willing to not fit neatly into a growth or value category.</p>\n<p>It isn’t easy finding good fund managers with the acumen to pick the right stocks beyond the other 495, the grit to avoid the crowd, and the track record that demonstrates to investors that they can be different and correct. Performance doesn’t look all that great for managers whose wariness led them to own less of the technology darlings that drove the market to highs over the past several years. And the decision to not own any—or even just less—of these companies sometimes pushed managers out of theirMorningstarcategory into areas like large-cap blend.</p>\n<p>High active share has often been a go-to gauge for finding fund managers who look different than their benchmarks. That’s a good place to start, but different doesn’t always lead to outperformance, so Morningstar strategist Alec Lucas recommends understanding what is in the managers’ portfolios and the thinking behind the picks—as well as when they buy or sell the stocks.</p>\n<p><i>Barron’s</i>looked for large-cap growth-oriented managers that don’t usually stick too close to an index and have long, and strong, track records. We turned up both diversified and concentrated funds; some didn’t own any of the Big Five, while some owned a bit, albeit less than their peers. All may offer investors a way to tweak rather than overhaul their portfolios, giving them some more diversification while still tapping into large, growing companies.</p>\n<p><b>A Concentrated Approach</b></p>\n<p>The Akre Focus fund (AKREX) falls into the concentrated bucket. It owns about 20 well-managed companies that the managers, John Neff and Chris Cerrone, think are superior businesses and adept at reinvesting in the companies. The fund has just a 4% turnover, so it holds on to its investments for years. That has been a winning long-term strategy: Akre Focus has an 18% average annual return over the past decade, beating 84% of its peers.</p>\n<p>The past few years have been tough, though: The fund hasn’t owned the Big Five, and has just 13% of its assets in any kind of technology company, whereas most of its peers have close to a third in tech. It has averaged 22% annually over the past three years; not too shabby on an absolute basis, but landing it midpack among competitors. The managers are resolute in finding growth elsewhere. “They are tremendous businesses, but how many more times can they double in value, given their current size? Maybe many times, but it’s an important question,” says Neff. “We’ve generally focused on smaller businesses with ostensibly longer runways with which to compound.”</p>\n<p>The tech investments that the managers have made are largely in software companies like Constellation Software (CSU.Canada),Adobe(ADBE), andCoStar Group(CSGP) that have long paths to growth ahead of them as more companies rely on their products. The fund also looks for companies with the type of “network effect” that makes Google and Amazon attractive—the business model gets stronger as more people use it, and makes the company that much harder to replace. Top holdings like Mastercard (MA) andVisa(V) fit that description.</p>\n<p>Many of the companies the duo favors are positioned to hold up, stand out, or even benefit from difficult times, like auto-parts retailerO’Reilly Automotive(ORLY), which recently reported its best comparable same-store sales in 25 years. Given the market backdrop, co-manager Cerrone says they aren’t finding that many bargains today—and they are willing to hold cash if that continues. Today, cash sits at just 2%. “We frankly wish we had more cash than we do today,” Cerrone says. “We’re not bearish, but we think we will be presented with better opportunities.”</p>\n<p><b>Underappreciated Growth</b></p>\n<p>The $10.1 billionPrimecap Odyssey Growthfund (POGRX) hunts for companies with above-average earnings growth, but not one of the Big Five tech stocks can be spotted in their top 10 holdings.</p>\n<p>That underweight has been painful; the fund’s 19.6% annual average return over the past five years puts it in the bottom third of large growth funds. But the managers’ willingness to stick with companies with above-average growth for the long haul, often adding to their shares in downturns, wins them fans.</p>\n<p>The fund’s managers are investing in some of the broad trends driving the Big Five—like e-commerce and cloud computing—but doing it differently, says Morningstar’s Lucas. For example, the fund owns Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) instead of Amazon, opting for China’s version of an e-commerce and cloud-computing giant that also trades at a meaningful discount to the U.S. company, Lucas says. Primecap declined to comment.</p>\n<p>About 18% of the fund is invested outside the U.S. and its average price/earnings ratio is 20, cheaper than the 29 for the large growth category, according to Morningstar. Though the fund isn’t concentrated in the Big Five tech stocks, it has double the stake in healthcare, almost 30% of assets, than other large growth funds. Its top 10 positions includeEli Lilly(LLY),Biogen(BIIB),Abiomed(ABMD), andAmgen(AMGN).</p>\n<p><b>Lean Profit Machines</b></p>\n<p>The $10.3 billionJensen Quality Growth(JENSX) focuses on companies that generate 15% return on equity for 10 consecutive years—a metric that co-manager Eric Schoenstein sees as a gauge forfoundational excellenceand fortress-like competitive advantages. Amazon and Facebook don’t make the cut. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple rank among the top holdings, but Schoenstein holds roughly a third less than in the Russell 1000 Growth index. Schoenstein says he is trying to be conscious of the risk of concentration if the momentum trade reverts or regulation puts a target on these companies’ backs.</p>\n<p>Schoenstein’s caution and a focus on quality companies have pushed the fund toward the bottom decile of the large blend Morningstar category year to date, with a return of 11.6%. But the fund’s 17.3% average return over the past five years puts it in the top 35% of large-blend funds tracked by Morningstar. Plus, the fund’s risk-adjusted, long-term performance stands out, losing about 77% as much as the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 1000 Growth indexes when stocks have fallen since Schoenstein began co-managing the fund in 2004, according to Morningstar.</p>\n<p>Lately, Schoenstein has been adding to quality stocks that may not be growing as fast but are more attractively priced as investors have left them behind, such asStarbucks(SBUX)—a stock that had been too pricey until the pandemic hit. “What better business is there to be in than branded addiction?” Schoenstein asks.</p>\n<p>While offices in New York City may not get to 100% occupancy, Schoenstein sees hybrid work situations continuing to drive business to Starbucks, potentially with fewer customers but higher sales, as one person buys for multiple people. The company is also closing stores to become more efficient and moving more toward quick-serve and grab-and-go in some locations rather than an all-day café experience.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81aeb359e30f7394a363f00feb8ce0cf\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Insurance is another area that Schoenstein has been adding to, with companies like Marsh &amp; McLennan (MMC), which is dominant in multiple businesses—insurance brokerage, health benefits, and retirement asset management with Mercer. Switching costs are high in the world of insurance, and the company benefits from new trends in cybersecurity and data privacy, as well.</p>\n<p>Another recent purchase: Data-analytics providerVerisk Analytics(VRSK), which serves property and casualty insurers and gets about 80% of its revenue from subscriptions and long-term agreements. The company helps take raw data and analyze it to help insurers, for example, underwrite policies. Says Schoenstein: “Some recovery is still needed because business has struggled over the past year, with business failures and companies putting [projects] on hold. So, it’s a small position, but I think about companies that are super-entrenched with their customers.”</p>\n<p><b>Multiple Managers</b></p>\n<p>Unlike the Jensen and Akre funds, which typically own 20 to 30 stocks, the $87 billionAmerican Funds Amcapfund (AMCPX) is well diversified, with more than 200 holdings, as managers hunt for the best ideas regardless of size.Abbott Laboratories(ABT),Broadcom(AVGO),EOG Resources(EOG), and Mastercard are top holdings along with four of the megacap tech quintuplets.</p>\n<p>But the fund is valuation-sensitive, and its allocation to the Big Five is lower than other growth managers, hurting its performance over the past five years; its average annual return of 17.3% puts it in the bottom decile of performance. For investors looking for diversification, the fund is a relatively cheap option—charging an expense ratio of 0.68%—that isn’t beholden to a benchmark and is run by multiple managers who can hunt for their highest-conviction ideas.</p>\n<p>Managers favor companies with strong competitive positioning, which can allow companies to boost prices and better weather near-term inflationary periods. While that includes a healthy helping of healthcare and technology stocks, managers have also gravitated toward cyclical growth companies, including semiconductor firms, travel-related companies, auto suppliers, retailers, and financials benefiting from secular growth as well as getting an additional boost from the Covid recovery.</p>\n<p>“It’s very consistent, and a good core fund with a lot of good stockpickers behind it,” says Russel Kinnel, Morningstar’s director of manager research. “You want a fund to have some good technology exposure because it’s a dynamic sector.”</p>\n<p><b>Growth on the Cheap</b></p>\n<p>The $357 million Cambiar Opportunity fund (CAMOX) is a concentrated fund that owns roughly 40 stocks. The fund looks for relative values among industry winners that boast strong long-term demand prospects and pricing power that differentiate it from some of its peers. The fund’s 16% average annual return over the past five years helped it beat 94% of its large-value peers.</p>\n<p>The fund holds Amazon, which it bought for the first time in early 2020 when the market wasn’t giving the e-commerce behemoth much value for its cloud business. It has been harder to own other megacap technology stocks, says Ania Aldrich, an investment principal at Cambiar. That’s in part because of their high valuations, but especially as exchange-traded funds continue to receive record-high inflows—$400 billion in the first half of 2021, versus $507 billion for all of last year, according to ETF.com—which contributes to the market concentration.</p>\n<p>Instead, the fund has focused on areas such as financials, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Charles Schwab (SCHW), that can grow in this economic environment. Both would benefit from higher interest rates, but Aldrich says that wasn’t the reason to buy the stocks. Schwab, for example, is taking market share in wealth management, and its recent acquisition of Ameritrade gives it more heft and the ability to be more cost-efficient.</p>\n<p>Also attractive are companies that haven’t yet seen a full reopening of their businesses, like casino operatorPenn National Gaming(PENN), which Aldrich says is well positioned as states look for more revenue andallow online gambling, and food distributorSysco(SYY), which has yet to benefit from colleges and conferences getting back into full swing. While Sysco’s shares are up 43% in the past year, Aldrich sees more room for gains, noting that the company is a market leader and can take market share as smaller firms consolidate. Plus, it has pricing power to pass on higher commodity costs since it is a distributor.</p>\n<p>Another recent addition:Uber Technologies(UBER), which Aldrich says isn’t just a reopening beneficiary but also has increased the reach of its platform by moving into food delivery and opening the door to other services. “In the past, it was hard to outperform when you weren’t involved in the [concentrated stocks], but we see these trends as transitory. As growth normalizes, the value of other stocks should be recognized.”</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Big Tech Stumbles, the Market Can Fall Hard. These 5 Funds Can Help.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Big Tech Stumbles, the Market Can Fall Hard. These 5 Funds Can Help.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-04 09:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-stocks-risk-funds-51625257865?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It is possible to have too much of a good thing. After riding five megacap technology stocks to new highs after new highs, investors’ portfolios may be uncomfortably concentrated in these winners at a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-stocks-risk-funds-51625257865?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-stocks-risk-funds-51625257865?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189605893","content_text":"It is possible to have too much of a good thing. After riding five megacap technology stocks to new highs after new highs, investors’ portfolios may be uncomfortably concentrated in these winners at a time that some strategists see a potential turn ahead in the markets.\nOwning the Big Five—Apple(ticker: AAPL),Microsoft(MSFT),Amazon.com(AMZN),Facebook(FB), andAlphabet’sGoogle (GOOGL)—has been lucrative: These companies have logged gains of 125% to 245% since the beginning of 2019. These stocks are widely held, not just by index investors, but also among all kinds of active fund managers—including those who don’t typically own growth companies.\nTogether, the five companies account for almost 22% of theS&P 500index. Of course, the Nifty Fifty stocks dominated the 1970s, and blue-chip stalwarts such asIBM(IBM) andAT&T(T) ruled the 1980s. Those companies may have wielded even more influence over the broad economy than today’s biggest companies do, but the level of market concentration is higher now, and the Big Five’s impact on the broad market is much greater because of their size, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Apple and Microsoft are the first U.S. stocks whose market values have soared past $2 trillion. Though it has slipped a bit this year, Apple hit peak concentration for a single stock in the S&P 500 last year at about 7%, higher than IBM’s in its heyday.\nThere are signs that investor appetite for risk is waning, which could hurt the prospects for the growth of Big Tech. There has beena selloff in speculative cornersof the market, such as cryptocurrencies and special purpose acquisition companies, better known as SPACs. And, of course, there is therising consternationabout both inflation andinterest ratesmoving higher. If the Big Fiveslow downor tumble, the entire market—including all index investors—will feel it. If these stocks decline by 10%, for instance, in order for the S&P 500 to keep trading flat, the bottom 100 stocks in the index would have to rise by a collective 75%, according toGoldman Sachs.This dynamic explains why narrow market breadth has often preceded big losses.\nWhen Less May Be More\nThese funds are more diversified than the S&P 500, and could be more resilient if the tech megacaps stumble.\n\nInvestors’ portfolios are chock-full of these stocks, leaving them less diversified for a possible turn in the market. These companies are already beginning to slow down. Take Amazon, which accounts for roughly 4% of the S&P 500—more than the energy, real estate, materials, or utilities sectors. Amazon hasn’t hit an all-time high this year, and has underperformed the S&P 500 by 25 percentage points since September 2020 amid questions about the company’s e-commerce growth. Add in regulatory pressure, which could make the path ahead for these companies rockier, such as a House panel’s approval of sweeping legislation last month that could curb the dominance of companies like Google and Facebook.\nA global recovery could also make the Big Five stocks less special. “The story line with megacap tech stocks has been that economic growth has been hard to find and rates so low that you wanted to own powerful growth stocks,” says Scott Opsal, director of research at Leuthold Group. “But for those who think the economy has room to run, you don’t have to pay up for the growth that investors were willing to pay for in 2018 or 2019.” For Opsal, the changing backdrop is reason for a barbell approach, owning some of the technology winners but also diversifying into a wider array of more value-oriented and smaller stocks.\nWith the market so concentrated in a handful of megacap tech stocks, Opsal says that investors may want the type of funds that do what the fund consultants advise against: be willing to drift out of their lane, and be willing to not fit neatly into a growth or value category.\nIt isn’t easy finding good fund managers with the acumen to pick the right stocks beyond the other 495, the grit to avoid the crowd, and the track record that demonstrates to investors that they can be different and correct. Performance doesn’t look all that great for managers whose wariness led them to own less of the technology darlings that drove the market to highs over the past several years. And the decision to not own any—or even just less—of these companies sometimes pushed managers out of theirMorningstarcategory into areas like large-cap blend.\nHigh active share has often been a go-to gauge for finding fund managers who look different than their benchmarks. That’s a good place to start, but different doesn’t always lead to outperformance, so Morningstar strategist Alec Lucas recommends understanding what is in the managers’ portfolios and the thinking behind the picks—as well as when they buy or sell the stocks.\nBarron’slooked for large-cap growth-oriented managers that don’t usually stick too close to an index and have long, and strong, track records. We turned up both diversified and concentrated funds; some didn’t own any of the Big Five, while some owned a bit, albeit less than their peers. All may offer investors a way to tweak rather than overhaul their portfolios, giving them some more diversification while still tapping into large, growing companies.\nA Concentrated Approach\nThe Akre Focus fund (AKREX) falls into the concentrated bucket. It owns about 20 well-managed companies that the managers, John Neff and Chris Cerrone, think are superior businesses and adept at reinvesting in the companies. The fund has just a 4% turnover, so it holds on to its investments for years. That has been a winning long-term strategy: Akre Focus has an 18% average annual return over the past decade, beating 84% of its peers.\nThe past few years have been tough, though: The fund hasn’t owned the Big Five, and has just 13% of its assets in any kind of technology company, whereas most of its peers have close to a third in tech. It has averaged 22% annually over the past three years; not too shabby on an absolute basis, but landing it midpack among competitors. The managers are resolute in finding growth elsewhere. “They are tremendous businesses, but how many more times can they double in value, given their current size? Maybe many times, but it’s an important question,” says Neff. “We’ve generally focused on smaller businesses with ostensibly longer runways with which to compound.”\nThe tech investments that the managers have made are largely in software companies like Constellation Software (CSU.Canada),Adobe(ADBE), andCoStar Group(CSGP) that have long paths to growth ahead of them as more companies rely on their products. The fund also looks for companies with the type of “network effect” that makes Google and Amazon attractive—the business model gets stronger as more people use it, and makes the company that much harder to replace. Top holdings like Mastercard (MA) andVisa(V) fit that description.\nMany of the companies the duo favors are positioned to hold up, stand out, or even benefit from difficult times, like auto-parts retailerO’Reilly Automotive(ORLY), which recently reported its best comparable same-store sales in 25 years. Given the market backdrop, co-manager Cerrone says they aren’t finding that many bargains today—and they are willing to hold cash if that continues. Today, cash sits at just 2%. “We frankly wish we had more cash than we do today,” Cerrone says. “We’re not bearish, but we think we will be presented with better opportunities.”\nUnderappreciated Growth\nThe $10.1 billionPrimecap Odyssey Growthfund (POGRX) hunts for companies with above-average earnings growth, but not one of the Big Five tech stocks can be spotted in their top 10 holdings.\nThat underweight has been painful; the fund’s 19.6% annual average return over the past five years puts it in the bottom third of large growth funds. But the managers’ willingness to stick with companies with above-average growth for the long haul, often adding to their shares in downturns, wins them fans.\nThe fund’s managers are investing in some of the broad trends driving the Big Five—like e-commerce and cloud computing—but doing it differently, says Morningstar’s Lucas. For example, the fund owns Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) instead of Amazon, opting for China’s version of an e-commerce and cloud-computing giant that also trades at a meaningful discount to the U.S. company, Lucas says. Primecap declined to comment.\nAbout 18% of the fund is invested outside the U.S. and its average price/earnings ratio is 20, cheaper than the 29 for the large growth category, according to Morningstar. Though the fund isn’t concentrated in the Big Five tech stocks, it has double the stake in healthcare, almost 30% of assets, than other large growth funds. Its top 10 positions includeEli Lilly(LLY),Biogen(BIIB),Abiomed(ABMD), andAmgen(AMGN).\nLean Profit Machines\nThe $10.3 billionJensen Quality Growth(JENSX) focuses on companies that generate 15% return on equity for 10 consecutive years—a metric that co-manager Eric Schoenstein sees as a gauge forfoundational excellenceand fortress-like competitive advantages. Amazon and Facebook don’t make the cut. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple rank among the top holdings, but Schoenstein holds roughly a third less than in the Russell 1000 Growth index. Schoenstein says he is trying to be conscious of the risk of concentration if the momentum trade reverts or regulation puts a target on these companies’ backs.\nSchoenstein’s caution and a focus on quality companies have pushed the fund toward the bottom decile of the large blend Morningstar category year to date, with a return of 11.6%. But the fund’s 17.3% average return over the past five years puts it in the top 35% of large-blend funds tracked by Morningstar. Plus, the fund’s risk-adjusted, long-term performance stands out, losing about 77% as much as the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 Growth indexes when stocks have fallen since Schoenstein began co-managing the fund in 2004, according to Morningstar.\nLately, Schoenstein has been adding to quality stocks that may not be growing as fast but are more attractively priced as investors have left them behind, such asStarbucks(SBUX)—a stock that had been too pricey until the pandemic hit. “What better business is there to be in than branded addiction?” Schoenstein asks.\nWhile offices in New York City may not get to 100% occupancy, Schoenstein sees hybrid work situations continuing to drive business to Starbucks, potentially with fewer customers but higher sales, as one person buys for multiple people. The company is also closing stores to become more efficient and moving more toward quick-serve and grab-and-go in some locations rather than an all-day café experience.\n\nInsurance is another area that Schoenstein has been adding to, with companies like Marsh & McLennan (MMC), which is dominant in multiple businesses—insurance brokerage, health benefits, and retirement asset management with Mercer. Switching costs are high in the world of insurance, and the company benefits from new trends in cybersecurity and data privacy, as well.\nAnother recent purchase: Data-analytics providerVerisk Analytics(VRSK), which serves property and casualty insurers and gets about 80% of its revenue from subscriptions and long-term agreements. The company helps take raw data and analyze it to help insurers, for example, underwrite policies. Says Schoenstein: “Some recovery is still needed because business has struggled over the past year, with business failures and companies putting [projects] on hold. So, it’s a small position, but I think about companies that are super-entrenched with their customers.”\nMultiple Managers\nUnlike the Jensen and Akre funds, which typically own 20 to 30 stocks, the $87 billionAmerican Funds Amcapfund (AMCPX) is well diversified, with more than 200 holdings, as managers hunt for the best ideas regardless of size.Abbott Laboratories(ABT),Broadcom(AVGO),EOG Resources(EOG), and Mastercard are top holdings along with four of the megacap tech quintuplets.\nBut the fund is valuation-sensitive, and its allocation to the Big Five is lower than other growth managers, hurting its performance over the past five years; its average annual return of 17.3% puts it in the bottom decile of performance. For investors looking for diversification, the fund is a relatively cheap option—charging an expense ratio of 0.68%—that isn’t beholden to a benchmark and is run by multiple managers who can hunt for their highest-conviction ideas.\nManagers favor companies with strong competitive positioning, which can allow companies to boost prices and better weather near-term inflationary periods. While that includes a healthy helping of healthcare and technology stocks, managers have also gravitated toward cyclical growth companies, including semiconductor firms, travel-related companies, auto suppliers, retailers, and financials benefiting from secular growth as well as getting an additional boost from the Covid recovery.\n“It’s very consistent, and a good core fund with a lot of good stockpickers behind it,” says Russel Kinnel, Morningstar’s director of manager research. “You want a fund to have some good technology exposure because it’s a dynamic sector.”\nGrowth on the Cheap\nThe $357 million Cambiar Opportunity fund (CAMOX) is a concentrated fund that owns roughly 40 stocks. The fund looks for relative values among industry winners that boast strong long-term demand prospects and pricing power that differentiate it from some of its peers. The fund’s 16% average annual return over the past five years helped it beat 94% of its large-value peers.\nThe fund holds Amazon, which it bought for the first time in early 2020 when the market wasn’t giving the e-commerce behemoth much value for its cloud business. It has been harder to own other megacap technology stocks, says Ania Aldrich, an investment principal at Cambiar. That’s in part because of their high valuations, but especially as exchange-traded funds continue to receive record-high inflows—$400 billion in the first half of 2021, versus $507 billion for all of last year, according to ETF.com—which contributes to the market concentration.\nInstead, the fund has focused on areas such as financials, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Charles Schwab (SCHW), that can grow in this economic environment. Both would benefit from higher interest rates, but Aldrich says that wasn’t the reason to buy the stocks. Schwab, for example, is taking market share in wealth management, and its recent acquisition of Ameritrade gives it more heft and the ability to be more cost-efficient.\nAlso attractive are companies that haven’t yet seen a full reopening of their businesses, like casino operatorPenn National Gaming(PENN), which Aldrich says is well positioned as states look for more revenue andallow online gambling, and food distributorSysco(SYY), which has yet to benefit from colleges and conferences getting back into full swing. While Sysco’s shares are up 43% in the past year, Aldrich sees more room for gains, noting that the company is a market leader and can take market share as smaller firms consolidate. Plus, it has pricing power to pass on higher commodity costs since it is a distributor.\nAnother recent addition:Uber Technologies(UBER), which Aldrich says isn’t just a reopening beneficiary but also has increased the reach of its platform by moving into food delivery and opening the door to other services. “In the past, it was hard to outperform when you weren’t involved in the [concentrated stocks], but we see these trends as transitory. As growth normalizes, the value of other stocks should be recognized.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174854852,"gmtCreate":1627092205176,"gmtModify":1703484076910,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174854852","repostId":"2153981075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153981075","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627091190,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153981075?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Best Video Game Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153981075","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These industry leaders should prosper in the growing $175 billion interactive entertainment market.","content":"<p>The bulls in the market have been stomping on the bears for more than a year, but history shows that stock prices don't move up in a straight line. Market corrections are par for the course when investing in stocks, but that same history shows these downturns lay the foundation for great returns afterward.</p>\n<p>If you've been thinking about buying shares of a video game stock, the next market pullback would be a great buying opportunity. <b>Activision Blizzard</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ATVI), <b>Electronic Arts</b> (NASDAQ:EA), and <b>Tencent</b> (OTC:TCEHY) are cash-rich leaders in the burgeoning video game industry that can deliver market-beating returns over the long term. Let's find out a bit more about these three stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869325da30a6e698de7db7d34e33d93a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>1. Activision Blizzard</h2>\n<p>Activision Blizzard owns eight franchises that have achieved at least $1 billion in lifetime bookings.&nbsp;It's best known for making <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most-played first-person shooters on the market in <i>Call of Duty</i>. A $1,000 investment in Activision stock in 2003, right after the first <i>Call of Duty</i> title was released,&nbsp;would be worth nearly $30,000 today.</p>\n<p>The <i>Call of Duty</i> franchise continues to grow. It's included in the company's Activision segment, which reached a record 150 million monthly active users (MAUs) in the first quarter.&nbsp;With seven other major franchises under its umbrella, Activision Blizzard sees an opportunity to improve those titles to more than double its MAUs to 1 billion.</p>\n<p>Making big-budget video game titles does require investing in thousands of employees and can involve significant marketing expenses, but many other aspects of production are not as capital intensive when compared to other industries. This allows top game companies that can sell millions of copies of new releases to produce robust amounts of free cash flow. Over the past four quarters, Activision Blizzard generated $2.8 billion in free cash flow on $8.5 billion in revenue.</p>\n<p>It pays out less than a fifth of that free cash flow in dividends, bringing the current dividend yield to 0.52%. There's clearly potential for Activision to safely double or triple that yield by increasing the payout ratio over time.</p>\n<p>Activision Blizzard owns several franchises that each have a built-in base of millions of fans, including <i>World of Warcraft</i>, <i>Diablo</i>, and <i>Overwatch</i>. The company is well stocked with cash, with $9.3 billion on the balance sheet,&nbsp;which should provide plenty of capital to continue reinvesting for growth.</p>\n<h2>2. Electronic Arts</h2>\n<p>Electronic Arts is known for its EA Sports titles, most notably <i>Madden</i> and <i>FIFA</i>. EA added 42 million new players to its network during the pandemic. It&nbsp;has a total of 230 million players and viewers, but management is targeting 500 million over the next five years.</p>\n<p>Most importantly, EA has demonstrated the ability to bring out new hits. The free-to-play shooter <i>Apex Legends</i> launched in 2019&nbsp;and recently surpassed $1 billion in bookings.&nbsp;EA also revealed plans earlier this year to relaunch its previous <i>NCAA Football</i> franchise under the new title <i>EA Sports College Football</i>, which should be released within the next few years.</p>\n<p>EA's success in growing its sports business in recent years has left it with lots of cash to reinvest. It entered fiscal 2022 with $6.3 billion of cash and investments and has already put that to work.&nbsp;So far this year, EA has spent a combined $4.7 billion to buy Glu Mobile, Codemasters, and Playdemic.&nbsp;These studios bring their own game development prowess and popular titles to accelerate EA's&nbsp;expansion into mobile.</p>\n<p>In fiscal 2021, EA's free cash flow came to $1.8 billion on $5.6 billion of revenue. EA started paying a dividend within the last year,&nbsp;which signals management's confidence in its growth strategy. The quarterly dividend amounts to $0.17 per share, bringing the current dividend yield to 0.48%.&nbsp;The company's growing sports lineup and willingness to return capital to shareholders makes it a top video game stock to consider buying.</p>\n<h2>3. Tencent</h2>\n<p>Tencent is the largest video game company in the world by revenue and also operates the popular WeChat social media platform in China.&nbsp;It owns Riot Games,&nbsp;the operator of one of the top esports titles in the world in <i>League of Legends</i>. It also has ownership stakes in several other companies, including Epic Games and Activision Blizzard.</p>\n<p>Gaming makes up 29% of its annual revenue, with online advertising, fintech, and business services composing most of the balance. But gaming is Tencent's largest business segment. It's the diversity of revenue streams across fast-growing markets, including gaming and cloud services, that make it a stock worth keeping on your radar.</p>\n<p>Over the last four quarters, Tencent generated $18.5 billion in free cash flow.&nbsp;It has $39 billion of dry powder on the balance sheet,&nbsp;in addition to a portfolio of investees that was worth over $200 billion in the first quarter.&nbsp;That's a lot of firepower.</p>\n<p>Tencent compares the current state of the video game industry to the movie business in the 1930s,&nbsp;and it's investing to maintain its leadership status. Last year, management announced a deep pipeline of 40 new titles, including internally developed and licensed games in development.&nbsp;It's particularly focusing on where gamers are spending more time, which is with big-budget, immersive gaming experiences.</p>\n<p>\"The development speed, scale, range, and depth of information technology is much greater than the last Industrial Revolution,\" said Senior Vice President Steven Ma. \"This brings unimaginable opportunities for games and the space is almost limitless.\"</p>\n<p>However, investors should note the risks of investing in Chinese companies. Tencent has come under scrutiny by regulators that have cracked down on \"inappropriate\" content in the company's games,&nbsp;but Tencent has been able to navigate through these obstacles and deliver market-beating returns to investors. The stock price has fallen recently, which can be chalked up to regulatory issues and near-term investments in the business that will pressure profitability this year. But I would look at the recent drop in share price as a buying opportunity.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Best Video Game Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Best Video Game Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/best-video-game-stocks-buy-in-next-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The bulls in the market have been stomping on the bears for more than a year, but history shows that stock prices don't move up in a straight line. Market corrections are par for the course when ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/best-video-game-stocks-buy-in-next-market-crash/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ATVI":"动视暴雪","EA":"艺电","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/best-video-game-stocks-buy-in-next-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153981075","content_text":"The bulls in the market have been stomping on the bears for more than a year, but history shows that stock prices don't move up in a straight line. Market corrections are par for the course when investing in stocks, but that same history shows these downturns lay the foundation for great returns afterward.\nIf you've been thinking about buying shares of a video game stock, the next market pullback would be a great buying opportunity. Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI), Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA), and Tencent (OTC:TCEHY) are cash-rich leaders in the burgeoning video game industry that can deliver market-beating returns over the long term. Let's find out a bit more about these three stocks.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n1. Activision Blizzard\nActivision Blizzard owns eight franchises that have achieved at least $1 billion in lifetime bookings. It's best known for making one of the most-played first-person shooters on the market in Call of Duty. A $1,000 investment in Activision stock in 2003, right after the first Call of Duty title was released, would be worth nearly $30,000 today.\nThe Call of Duty franchise continues to grow. It's included in the company's Activision segment, which reached a record 150 million monthly active users (MAUs) in the first quarter. With seven other major franchises under its umbrella, Activision Blizzard sees an opportunity to improve those titles to more than double its MAUs to 1 billion.\nMaking big-budget video game titles does require investing in thousands of employees and can involve significant marketing expenses, but many other aspects of production are not as capital intensive when compared to other industries. This allows top game companies that can sell millions of copies of new releases to produce robust amounts of free cash flow. Over the past four quarters, Activision Blizzard generated $2.8 billion in free cash flow on $8.5 billion in revenue.\nIt pays out less than a fifth of that free cash flow in dividends, bringing the current dividend yield to 0.52%. There's clearly potential for Activision to safely double or triple that yield by increasing the payout ratio over time.\nActivision Blizzard owns several franchises that each have a built-in base of millions of fans, including World of Warcraft, Diablo, and Overwatch. The company is well stocked with cash, with $9.3 billion on the balance sheet, which should provide plenty of capital to continue reinvesting for growth.\n2. Electronic Arts\nElectronic Arts is known for its EA Sports titles, most notably Madden and FIFA. EA added 42 million new players to its network during the pandemic. It has a total of 230 million players and viewers, but management is targeting 500 million over the next five years.\nMost importantly, EA has demonstrated the ability to bring out new hits. The free-to-play shooter Apex Legends launched in 2019 and recently surpassed $1 billion in bookings. EA also revealed plans earlier this year to relaunch its previous NCAA Football franchise under the new title EA Sports College Football, which should be released within the next few years.\nEA's success in growing its sports business in recent years has left it with lots of cash to reinvest. It entered fiscal 2022 with $6.3 billion of cash and investments and has already put that to work. So far this year, EA has spent a combined $4.7 billion to buy Glu Mobile, Codemasters, and Playdemic. These studios bring their own game development prowess and popular titles to accelerate EA's expansion into mobile.\nIn fiscal 2021, EA's free cash flow came to $1.8 billion on $5.6 billion of revenue. EA started paying a dividend within the last year, which signals management's confidence in its growth strategy. The quarterly dividend amounts to $0.17 per share, bringing the current dividend yield to 0.48%. The company's growing sports lineup and willingness to return capital to shareholders makes it a top video game stock to consider buying.\n3. Tencent\nTencent is the largest video game company in the world by revenue and also operates the popular WeChat social media platform in China. It owns Riot Games, the operator of one of the top esports titles in the world in League of Legends. It also has ownership stakes in several other companies, including Epic Games and Activision Blizzard.\nGaming makes up 29% of its annual revenue, with online advertising, fintech, and business services composing most of the balance. But gaming is Tencent's largest business segment. It's the diversity of revenue streams across fast-growing markets, including gaming and cloud services, that make it a stock worth keeping on your radar.\nOver the last four quarters, Tencent generated $18.5 billion in free cash flow. It has $39 billion of dry powder on the balance sheet, in addition to a portfolio of investees that was worth over $200 billion in the first quarter. That's a lot of firepower.\nTencent compares the current state of the video game industry to the movie business in the 1930s, and it's investing to maintain its leadership status. Last year, management announced a deep pipeline of 40 new titles, including internally developed and licensed games in development. It's particularly focusing on where gamers are spending more time, which is with big-budget, immersive gaming experiences.\n\"The development speed, scale, range, and depth of information technology is much greater than the last Industrial Revolution,\" said Senior Vice President Steven Ma. \"This brings unimaginable opportunities for games and the space is almost limitless.\"\nHowever, investors should note the risks of investing in Chinese companies. Tencent has come under scrutiny by regulators that have cracked down on \"inappropriate\" content in the company's games, but Tencent has been able to navigate through these obstacles and deliver market-beating returns to investors. The stock price has fallen recently, which can be chalked up to regulatory issues and near-term investments in the business that will pressure profitability this year. But I would look at the recent drop in share price as a buying opportunity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148612490,"gmtCreate":1625971076010,"gmtModify":1703751416721,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148612490","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185154176?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p>\n<p>It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p>\n<p>Here’s why.</p>\n<p>We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p>\n<p><b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p>\n<p>Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p>\n<p>First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p>\n<p>Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p>\n<p>Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p>\n<p>Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p>\n<p>Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p>\n<p>You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p>\n<p>Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p>\n<p><b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p>\n<p>Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p>\n<p>“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p>\n<p>Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p>\n<p>For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p>\n<p>Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p>\n<p><b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p>\n<p>Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p>\n<p><b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p>\n<p>We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p>\n<p>This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p>\n<p>True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p>\n<p><b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p>\n<p>As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p>\n<p><b>Three themes to follow</b></p>\n<p>If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p>\n<p><b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p>\n<p><b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p>\n<p><b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156425528,"gmtCreate":1625234860564,"gmtModify":1703739074556,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156425528","repostId":"1158221529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158221529","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625226184,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158221529?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-02 19:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Does Palantir Have the Right Stuff to Get Back to $40?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158221529","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The next leg up for PLTR stock requires more free cash flow generation\nPalantir Technologies(NYSE:PL","content":"<p>The next leg up for PLTR stock requires more free cash flow generation</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Technologies</b>(NYSE:<b><u>PLTR</u></b>) went on a run in June. PLTR stock gained 15% on the month, almost seven times the return of the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>.</p>\n<p>There’s no question that the data analytics software company has the momentum heading into the second half of 2021. Its stock traded as high as $45 in January.</p>\n<p>Can it get back to the $40s by the end of the year? Let’s consider the possibilities.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock IPO Was $7.25</b></p>\n<p>Sometimes I think investors forget that Palantir’s been a public company for just nine months,going public&nbsp;on Sept. 30 with a direct listing reference price of $7.25. It gained 31% on its first day of trading and is up more than 150% since then.</p>\n<p>Were it to get to $40 by the end of the year, its annualized return would be approximately 10 percentage points higher than today. So, if you bought today – as I write this, it’s trading around $26 – you’d be looking at an annualized return of almost 104%.</p>\n<p>But it’s got to get there first.</p>\n<p>When I last wrote about Palantir in early May, I sent a mixed message to readers.</p>\n<p>On the one hand, I thought CEO and co-founder Alex Karp’s 2020 compensation was exceptionally obscene. Karp took home nearly&nbsp;$1.1 billion in cash and stock compensation. His pay accounted for 4.9% of Palantir’s revenue for 2020.</p>\n<p>His compensation was exceptional; The<i>&nbsp;New York Times</i>&nbsp;reported that Karp was the&nbsp;highest-paid CEO of a publicly traded companyin 2020.</p>\n<p>So, not only do you have to be good with the fact that Palantir has an exceedingly high valuation at&nbsp;40.7x sales, but you also have to reconcile the fact you’re buying a stock whose CEO is tops in CEO compensation, putting him on the AFL-CIO’s dartboard as public enemy No. 1.</p>\n<p>But go ahead and make the play.</p>\n<p><b>What’s to Like About Palantir</b></p>\n<p>I finished my May article by suggesting readers wait for the teens, preferably $15, before buying PLTR stock. It got as low as $17.06 on May 11 but never made it to $15. Since the low, it’s up 55%. I had the right idea. But got a little greedy with the $15 buy call.</p>\n<p>Ah, you gotta hate market timing.</p>\n<p>In April, I suggested that as long as the&nbsp;<b>Ark Innovation ETF</b>(NYSEARCA:<b><u>ARKK</u></b>)&nbsp;continued to hold Palantir&nbsp;in the middle of the pack in terms of the fund’s holdings, it remained a stock to buy in the teens. That feeling didn’t change in May.</p>\n<p>However, Cathie Woods’ ARKK weighting has increased to 15th spot as of July 1, at 2.38%. That puts it just outside the top 10 and much higher than in April. Her commitment to Palantir’s getting stronger, although some of that is due to capital appreciation.</p>\n<p>So, what is it that Wood finds so irresistible about Palantir?</p>\n<p>I’ll lean on&nbsp;<i>InvestorPlace’s</i>&nbsp;Mark Hake for a possible answer.</p>\n<p>Hake recently argued that its&nbsp;tremendous free cash flow(FCF) and high FCF margin suggest it’s worth at least $33.59 per share, moving higher as it generates increased FCF from increased revenues.</p>\n<p>I love FCF stocks, so his comments piqued my interest.</p>\n<p>According to<i>Morningstar,</i>Palantir has a trailing 12-month (TTM) FCF of&nbsp;$110 million. Based on a market cap of $49.5 billion, it has an FCF yield of 0.22%. Thus, its FCF yield is 9.2%, which is good, if not great. For comparison,<b>Apple’s</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>) is 27.8%.</p>\n<p>However, Hake’s point is that the probability of its FCF margin moving into the teens is likely. So, based on a projected 15% FCF margin and $2.4 billion in revenue (double the current TTM sales), it would have $360 million in FCF.</p>\n<p>Assuming the FCF yield were to stay as it is at 0.22%, it would have a market capitalization of $164 billion. Based on&nbsp;1.88 billion shares outstanding, we get a share price of $87.23.</p>\n<p>Now, a lot has to fall into place for this to happen, and none of it will come to fruition in 2021 or 2022, for that matter.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p>\n<p>I personally wouldn’t buy PLTR stock because of Karp’s compensation. It’s truly obscene.</p>\n<p>However, for those who don’t care about CEOs being overpaid, I think the current downside to PLTR isn’t all that great. It’s on a roll. Things in motion tend to stay in motion until an event gets in the way.</p>\n<p>So, if you get in for the short-term, say 60 to 90 days, you’ll probably do OK. But if you get in for the long term, I would look for its FCF margin to get to 15% and its FCF yield to move well above 1%. Until then, you’re going to get a lot of valuation naysayers.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does Palantir Have the Right Stuff to Get Back to $40?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes Palantir Have the Right Stuff to Get Back to $40?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 19:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/07/does-pltr-stock-have-the-right-stuff-to-get-back-to-40/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The next leg up for PLTR stock requires more free cash flow generation\nPalantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) went on a run in June. PLTR stock gained 15% on the month, almost seven times the return of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/07/does-pltr-stock-have-the-right-stuff-to-get-back-to-40/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/07/does-pltr-stock-have-the-right-stuff-to-get-back-to-40/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158221529","content_text":"The next leg up for PLTR stock requires more free cash flow generation\nPalantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) went on a run in June. PLTR stock gained 15% on the month, almost seven times the return of the S&P 500.\nThere’s no question that the data analytics software company has the momentum heading into the second half of 2021. Its stock traded as high as $45 in January.\nCan it get back to the $40s by the end of the year? Let’s consider the possibilities.\nPLTR Stock IPO Was $7.25\nSometimes I think investors forget that Palantir’s been a public company for just nine months,going public on Sept. 30 with a direct listing reference price of $7.25. It gained 31% on its first day of trading and is up more than 150% since then.\nWere it to get to $40 by the end of the year, its annualized return would be approximately 10 percentage points higher than today. So, if you bought today – as I write this, it’s trading around $26 – you’d be looking at an annualized return of almost 104%.\nBut it’s got to get there first.\nWhen I last wrote about Palantir in early May, I sent a mixed message to readers.\nOn the one hand, I thought CEO and co-founder Alex Karp’s 2020 compensation was exceptionally obscene. Karp took home nearly $1.1 billion in cash and stock compensation. His pay accounted for 4.9% of Palantir’s revenue for 2020.\nHis compensation was exceptional; The New York Times reported that Karp was the highest-paid CEO of a publicly traded companyin 2020.\nSo, not only do you have to be good with the fact that Palantir has an exceedingly high valuation at 40.7x sales, but you also have to reconcile the fact you’re buying a stock whose CEO is tops in CEO compensation, putting him on the AFL-CIO’s dartboard as public enemy No. 1.\nBut go ahead and make the play.\nWhat’s to Like About Palantir\nI finished my May article by suggesting readers wait for the teens, preferably $15, before buying PLTR stock. It got as low as $17.06 on May 11 but never made it to $15. Since the low, it’s up 55%. I had the right idea. But got a little greedy with the $15 buy call.\nAh, you gotta hate market timing.\nIn April, I suggested that as long as the Ark Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK) continued to hold Palantir in the middle of the pack in terms of the fund’s holdings, it remained a stock to buy in the teens. That feeling didn’t change in May.\nHowever, Cathie Woods’ ARKK weighting has increased to 15th spot as of July 1, at 2.38%. That puts it just outside the top 10 and much higher than in April. Her commitment to Palantir’s getting stronger, although some of that is due to capital appreciation.\nSo, what is it that Wood finds so irresistible about Palantir?\nI’ll lean on InvestorPlace’s Mark Hake for a possible answer.\nHake recently argued that its tremendous free cash flow(FCF) and high FCF margin suggest it’s worth at least $33.59 per share, moving higher as it generates increased FCF from increased revenues.\nI love FCF stocks, so his comments piqued my interest.\nAccording toMorningstar,Palantir has a trailing 12-month (TTM) FCF of $110 million. Based on a market cap of $49.5 billion, it has an FCF yield of 0.22%. Thus, its FCF yield is 9.2%, which is good, if not great. For comparison,Apple’s(NASDAQ:AAPL) is 27.8%.\nHowever, Hake’s point is that the probability of its FCF margin moving into the teens is likely. So, based on a projected 15% FCF margin and $2.4 billion in revenue (double the current TTM sales), it would have $360 million in FCF.\nAssuming the FCF yield were to stay as it is at 0.22%, it would have a market capitalization of $164 billion. Based on 1.88 billion shares outstanding, we get a share price of $87.23.\nNow, a lot has to fall into place for this to happen, and none of it will come to fruition in 2021 or 2022, for that matter.\nThe Bottom Line\nI personally wouldn’t buy PLTR stock because of Karp’s compensation. It’s truly obscene.\nHowever, for those who don’t care about CEOs being overpaid, I think the current downside to PLTR isn’t all that great. It’s on a roll. Things in motion tend to stay in motion until an event gets in the way.\nSo, if you get in for the short-term, say 60 to 90 days, you’ll probably do OK. But if you get in for the long term, I would look for its FCF margin to get to 15% and its FCF yield to move well above 1%. Until then, you’re going to get a lot of valuation naysayers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141991413,"gmtCreate":1625830844932,"gmtModify":1703749408286,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Read","listText":"Good Read","text":"Good Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141991413","repostId":"1113072261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113072261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625823554,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113072261?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113072261","media":"Benzinga","summary":"GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of","content":"<p><b>GameStop Corp.</b>&nbsp;short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>Founded in 2014 by Gabe Plotkin, a former portfolio manager for Steve Cohen, Melvin Capital was at the heart of the GameStop saga earlier this year.</p>\n<p>The hedge fund, which managed $11 billion in assets as of June 1, is taking smaller-sized positions to limit exposure to single companies, as per the report.</p>\n<p>Plotkin has reportedly instructed his team of data scientists to watch social media and message boards to look for shares that are seeing high support from retail investors.</p>\n<p><b>Why It Matters:</b>Melvin Capital’s first-half results indicate the hedge fund is struggling to rebound from thelossesit incurred from betting against GameStop&nbsp;and other stonks - stocks popular with retail investors.</p>\n<p>Melvin Capital said in May it has&nbsp;closed out&nbsp;of all its public bearish positions in the first quarter. This included its listed put options in GameStop.</p>\n<p>It was&nbsp;reported&nbsp;in June that London-based White Square Capital is shutting down after suffering huge losses during the retail trading frenzy earlier in the year. This marked one of the first hedge fund closures following the surge in shares of stonks.</p>\n<p>In early June,<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.</b>&nbsp;and GameStop short-seller losses swelled up to$12 billionon a year-to-date basis. Both the stocks continue to seehigh interestfrom retail investors.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action</b>: AMC Entertainment shares closed almost 6.4% higher in Thursday’s regular trading session at $47.94, while GameStop shares closed almost 0.4% higher at $191.38.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-09 17:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.\nWhat Happened:Founded in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113072261","content_text":"GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.\nWhat Happened:Founded in 2014 by Gabe Plotkin, a former portfolio manager for Steve Cohen, Melvin Capital was at the heart of the GameStop saga earlier this year.\nThe hedge fund, which managed $11 billion in assets as of June 1, is taking smaller-sized positions to limit exposure to single companies, as per the report.\nPlotkin has reportedly instructed his team of data scientists to watch social media and message boards to look for shares that are seeing high support from retail investors.\nWhy It Matters:Melvin Capital’s first-half results indicate the hedge fund is struggling to rebound from thelossesit incurred from betting against GameStop and other stonks - stocks popular with retail investors.\nMelvin Capital said in May it has closed out of all its public bearish positions in the first quarter. This included its listed put options in GameStop.\nIt was reported in June that London-based White Square Capital is shutting down after suffering huge losses during the retail trading frenzy earlier in the year. This marked one of the first hedge fund closures following the surge in shares of stonks.\nIn early June,AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and GameStop short-seller losses swelled up to$12 billionon a year-to-date basis. Both the stocks continue to seehigh interestfrom retail investors.\nPrice Action: AMC Entertainment shares closed almost 6.4% higher in Thursday’s regular trading session at $47.94, while GameStop shares closed almost 0.4% higher at $191.38.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158805845,"gmtCreate":1625141874487,"gmtModify":1703736961228,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158805845","repostId":"2148840288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146446891,"gmtCreate":1626097820413,"gmtModify":1703753330388,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146446891","repostId":"1190430688","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190430688","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626097090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190430688?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190430688","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.\nS","content":"<p>Virgin Galactic&nbsp;fell&nbsp;6%&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;as&nbsp;once&nbsp;rising&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d333c87a902f8607ae09dca6c78f8c\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Shares of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic&nbsp;slipped on Monday after the company filed to sell up to $500 million in common stock. This follows the commercial spaceflight company’s successful test flight with founder Sir Richard Branson.</p>\n<p>Shares of Virgin Galactic — which trades under ticker SPCE — fell 8% after the $500 million in stock sale announcement that came after the company's successfully completedfully crewed test flightinto suborbital space on Sunday, a major milestone in the commercial space race and step towards the company's goal for commercial service in early 2022.</p>\n<p>The shares were last at about $44.80, after rising as much as 7% in premarket trading. The stock has doubled so far this year in anticipation of this progress toward commercial service.</p>\n<p>\"We view Branson's achievement as a massive marketing coup for Virgin Galactic that will be impossible for the public to ignore,\" Canaccord Genuity equity analyst Ken Herbert told clients. The firm has a buy rating but $35 price target on the stock, which is below its current level.</p>\n<p>The company's spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees. VSS Unity fired its rocket engine and accelerated to faster than three times the speed of sound in a climb to the edge of space.</p>\n<p>\"We see this as important on the path toward starting passenger flights, which we assume will happen in early 2022,\" AB Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned told clients. The firm has a market perform rating on Virgin Galactic.</p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic's VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each. While passenger ticket sales have yet to be announced, Bernstein expects them to come at a higher price point between $400,000 and $500,000.</p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic also announced it is partnering with sweepstakes company Omaze to offer a chance at two seats on \"one of the first commercial Virgin Galactic spaceflights\" early next year.</p>\n<p>\"The flight is symbolically important for building consumer confidence in and demand for space tourism,\" said Harned. \"A successful test flight by Blue Origin including founder Jeff Bezos, scheduled for July 20, should generate further interest in the industry, which would benefit both companies.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaede22b48f21a26943de5199a5f26e5\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In 2004, Branson founded Virgin Galactic to fly private passengers to space. Branson was not previously expected to fly on Sunday's spaceflight but after fellow billionaire&nbsp;Jeff Bezos&nbsp;announced&nbsp;he would fly on his company Blue Origin's first passenger flight&nbsp;on July 20, Virgin Galactic rearranged its schedule — aiming to fly Branson nine days before Bezos.</p>\n<p>Launching ahead of Bezos or&nbsp;Elon Musk, Sunday's flight means Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.</p>\n<p>AB Bernstein said the flight's success and subsequent ticket sales could well be an upward short-term catalyst for the stock but did not change their long-term forecast. The firm did note that it wouldn't be short the stock, as it has seen huge volatility driven by retail investors reacting to events.</p>\n<ul></ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-12 21:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Virgin Galactic&nbsp;fell&nbsp;6%&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;as&nbsp;once&nbsp;rising&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d333c87a902f8607ae09dca6c78f8c\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Shares of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic&nbsp;slipped on Monday after the company filed to sell up to $500 million in common stock. This follows the commercial spaceflight company’s successful test flight with founder Sir Richard Branson.</p>\n<p>Shares of Virgin Galactic — which trades under ticker SPCE — fell 8% after the $500 million in stock sale announcement that came after the company's successfully completedfully crewed test flightinto suborbital space on Sunday, a major milestone in the commercial space race and step towards the company's goal for commercial service in early 2022.</p>\n<p>The shares were last at about $44.80, after rising as much as 7% in premarket trading. The stock has doubled so far this year in anticipation of this progress toward commercial service.</p>\n<p>\"We view Branson's achievement as a massive marketing coup for Virgin Galactic that will be impossible for the public to ignore,\" Canaccord Genuity equity analyst Ken Herbert told clients. The firm has a buy rating but $35 price target on the stock, which is below its current level.</p>\n<p>The company's spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees. VSS Unity fired its rocket engine and accelerated to faster than three times the speed of sound in a climb to the edge of space.</p>\n<p>\"We see this as important on the path toward starting passenger flights, which we assume will happen in early 2022,\" AB Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned told clients. The firm has a market perform rating on Virgin Galactic.</p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic's VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each. While passenger ticket sales have yet to be announced, Bernstein expects them to come at a higher price point between $400,000 and $500,000.</p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic also announced it is partnering with sweepstakes company Omaze to offer a chance at two seats on \"one of the first commercial Virgin Galactic spaceflights\" early next year.</p>\n<p>\"The flight is symbolically important for building consumer confidence in and demand for space tourism,\" said Harned. \"A successful test flight by Blue Origin including founder Jeff Bezos, scheduled for July 20, should generate further interest in the industry, which would benefit both companies.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaede22b48f21a26943de5199a5f26e5\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In 2004, Branson founded Virgin Galactic to fly private passengers to space. Branson was not previously expected to fly on Sunday's spaceflight but after fellow billionaire&nbsp;Jeff Bezos&nbsp;announced&nbsp;he would fly on his company Blue Origin's first passenger flight&nbsp;on July 20, Virgin Galactic rearranged its schedule — aiming to fly Branson nine days before Bezos.</p>\n<p>Launching ahead of Bezos or&nbsp;Elon Musk, Sunday's flight means Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.</p>\n<p>AB Bernstein said the flight's success and subsequent ticket sales could well be an upward short-term catalyst for the stock but did not change their long-term forecast. The firm did note that it wouldn't be short the stock, as it has seen huge volatility driven by retail investors reacting to events.</p>\n<ul></ul>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190430688","content_text":"Virgin Galactic fell 6% in the morning trading, as once rising more than 10% in premarket trading.\nShares of Virgin Galactic slipped on Monday after the company filed to sell up to $500 million in common stock. This follows the commercial spaceflight company’s successful test flight with founder Sir Richard Branson.\nShares of Virgin Galactic — which trades under ticker SPCE — fell 8% after the $500 million in stock sale announcement that came after the company's successfully completedfully crewed test flightinto suborbital space on Sunday, a major milestone in the commercial space race and step towards the company's goal for commercial service in early 2022.\nThe shares were last at about $44.80, after rising as much as 7% in premarket trading. The stock has doubled so far this year in anticipation of this progress toward commercial service.\n\"We view Branson's achievement as a massive marketing coup for Virgin Galactic that will be impossible for the public to ignore,\" Canaccord Genuity equity analyst Ken Herbert told clients. The firm has a buy rating but $35 price target on the stock, which is below its current level.\nThe company's spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees. VSS Unity fired its rocket engine and accelerated to faster than three times the speed of sound in a climb to the edge of space.\n\"We see this as important on the path toward starting passenger flights, which we assume will happen in early 2022,\" AB Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned told clients. The firm has a market perform rating on Virgin Galactic.\nVirgin Galactic's VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each. While passenger ticket sales have yet to be announced, Bernstein expects them to come at a higher price point between $400,000 and $500,000.\nVirgin Galactic also announced it is partnering with sweepstakes company Omaze to offer a chance at two seats on \"one of the first commercial Virgin Galactic spaceflights\" early next year.\n\"The flight is symbolically important for building consumer confidence in and demand for space tourism,\" said Harned. \"A successful test flight by Blue Origin including founder Jeff Bezos, scheduled for July 20, should generate further interest in the industry, which would benefit both companies.\"\n\nIn 2004, Branson founded Virgin Galactic to fly private passengers to space. Branson was not previously expected to fly on Sunday's spaceflight but after fellow billionaire Jeff Bezos announced he would fly on his company Blue Origin's first passenger flight on July 20, Virgin Galactic rearranged its schedule — aiming to fly Branson nine days before Bezos.\nLaunching ahead of Bezos or Elon Musk, Sunday's flight means Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.\nAB Bernstein said the flight's success and subsequent ticket sales could well be an upward short-term catalyst for the stock but did not change their long-term forecast. The firm did note that it wouldn't be short the stock, as it has seen huge volatility driven by retail investors reacting to events.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157018461,"gmtCreate":1625552980053,"gmtModify":1703743566893,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Read","listText":"Good Read","text":"Good Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157018461","repostId":"1164348327","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164348327","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625535165,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164348327?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 09:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Ultra-Popular Stocks to Avoid Like the Plague in July","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164348327","media":"The motley fool","summary":"For the past 15 months, Wall Street and investors have enjoyed a historic bounce-back rally. The ben","content":"<p>For the past 15 months, Wall Street and investors have enjoyed a historic bounce-back rally. The benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>has gained more than 90% since hitting its bear-market bottom on March 23, 2020.</p>\n<p>While a number of high-quality and innovative businesses have led this rally, it's also allowed quite a few terrible companies to thrive. It's my suggestion that the following five ultra-popular stocks be avoided like the plague in July.</p>\n<p>Coinbase Global</p>\n<p>First up is cryptocurrency exchange and ecosystem<b>Coinbase Global</b>(NASDAQ:COIN). Coinbase is popular given how quickly its revenue and profits surged in the first quarter as investors piled into the likes of<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;and<b>Ethereum</b>. The problem is there are a trio of catalysts working against the Coinbase brokerage model.</p>\n<p>To start with, there's nothing that prevents competing exchanges from undercutting Coinbase Global's fees. It might have the verified user advantage at the moment, but don't underestimate the willingness of crypto investors to jump ship to save on transaction fees. We witnessed it among traditional brokerages, and the industry eventually wound up going commission-free.</p>\n<p>Second,crypto has a history of boom-and-bust cycles. Bitcoin has had three separate instances over the last decade where it's shed at least 80% of its value. This is an entirely momentum-based investment, and when upside momentum dries up, so does Coinbase's trading revenue. Following a 2017 peak, Coinbase saw its revenue nearly halve in subsequent years.</p>\n<p>And third, the past four weeks, through June 28, saw outflows from crypto of $257.3 million, according to CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly. This is more evidence that interest in crypto is already dwindling with these assets well off their highs. Suffice it to say, Coinbase isnot a stock you're going to want to ownmoving forward.</p>\n<p>Cassava Sciences</p>\n<p>Another ultra-popular company with a terrible risk-versus-reward ratio is clinical-stagebiotech stock<b>Cassava Sciences</b>(NASDAQ:SAVA).</p>\n<p>Cassava rightly made waves in February when it announced positive clinical data from an interim analysis of simufilam as a treatment for Alzheimer's disease. The open-label trial showed improvement in cognition and behavior at the six-month mark, and more recently allowed Cassava to outline its plans for a phase 3 trial involving its lead drug candidate.</p>\n<p>I'd love for simufilam to be successful, but history has shown that Alzheimer's is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the toughest-to-treat diseases. With the exception of<b>Biogen</b>'s Aduhelm, which was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) but has been criticized heavily for its lack of clear benefit, every Alzheimer's drughas failed in late-stage studies for more than a decade. All investors have to go on is early stage, open-label data from a trial that aimed to enroll 100 patients. It's not been uncommon to see positive early or-mid-stage results get pulverized come a large phase 3 Alzheimer's trial.</p>\n<p>Although Cassava raised a good amount of cash to continue its research, history suggests that simufilam's chance of success is very slim. That makes Cassava Sciences easily avoidable.</p>\n<p>GameStop</p>\n<p>If you've been following the retail trade movement (i.e. Reddit stocks), whereby retail investors are seeking out heavily short-sold companies and attempting to effect a short squeeze, you probably know video game and accessories retailer<b>GameStop</b>(NYSE:GME).</p>\n<p>On <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> hand, GameStop has been able to capitalize on its recent fame byselling stock to raise capitalfor its ongoing transformation to a digital gaming company. It's a much-needed move after e-commerce sales jumped 191% in fiscal 2020 and more than quadrupled during the holiday season, from the prior-year period.</p>\n<p>However, these capital raises don't overlook the fact that theprevious management team failed the company. For two decades, a brick-and-mortar gaming model worked well. However, sticking to this brick-and-mortar model when gaming was going digital left the company in a precarious position. Today, GameStop continues to lose money, even with rapid e-commerce growth, and saw its same-store sales decline by almost 10% last year. Digital sales may be growing, but total revenue is going nowhere as GameStop shutters its physical locations to lower costs.</p>\n<p>GameStop is in no way a bankruptcy candidate, and I can actually see a path to profitability years down the road. But with that being said, the gains it's seen make no sense given the long transformation and operating losses that lie ahead.</p>\n<p>Inovio Pharmaceuticals</p>\n<p>Biotech stocks can offer ample opportunity, or in<b>Inovio Pharmaceuticals</b>'(NASDAQ:INO)case, suck the lifeblood out of long-term investors.</p>\n<p>Inovio would appear to be an intriguing company based solely on paper. It has a pipeline that currently includes over a dozen clinical candidates to treat cancer, infectious diseases, and human papilloma virus. The most-promising looks to be INO-4800, the company's coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine candidate that's readying for phase 3 studies. But if you do any digging into Inovio's clinical performance, you'll be sorely disappointed.</p>\n<p>For example, INO-4800had been placed on partial clinical holdin the U.S. while regulators requested additional data on Inovio's vaccine and its delivery system, Cellectra. More recently, INO-4800 had its late-stage funding pulled by the U.S. government, which is why it's now seeking an international study for its COVID-19 candidate.</p>\n<p>If you think I'm unfairly picking on Inovio for its COVID-19 struggles, pan out even further. In four decades, Inoviohasn't managed to get a drug approved by the FDA. This isn't me wishing bad things on Inovio -- this is the reality that hope and results haven't aligned with this company for a long time. Until Inovio proves itself in a late-stage clinical trial, it's worth avoiding.</p>\n<p>AMC Entertainment</p>\n<p>Finally, I can't forgetongoing pump-and-dump scheme<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC). While retail investors were able to claim victory by effecting a short squeeze in January after AMC saved itself by issuing a bunch of shares and high-interest debt, the most recent run-up has nothing to do with a short squeeze. Rather, it's based predominantly on hype, the purposeful obfuscation of concrete fundamental data on message boards, and broad-based, blatant misinformation.</p>\n<p>AMC's retail investors would like you to believe that fundamentals don't matter -- but try driving a car without an engine and see how far you get. AMC is dealing with a 19-year decline in industry ticket sales and is seeing some of its film exclusivity evaporate as movie studios lean on streaming. There will be a place for movie theaters, but AMC'saddressable market keeps shrinkingwith each passing year.</p>\n<p>AMC's retail investors would also have you believe the company is in great shape after raising $2 billion in capital. While it has put bankruptcy rumors in the near-term on the backburner, the 2027 bond price is nowhere near par. Why, you ask? Because bondholders aren't convinced that AMC is going to escape bankruptcy.</p>\n<p>I've seen enough pump-and-dump campaigns in my life to recognize them, andAMC checks all the boxes. My suggestion isn't to short AMC. My suggestion is to avoid it completely. All pump-and-dump schemes eventually collapse, and AMC will be no exception.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Ultra-Popular Stocks to Avoid Like the Plague in July</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Ultra-Popular Stocks to Avoid Like the Plague in July\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-06 09:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/05/5-ultra-popular-stocks-avoid-like-plague-in-july/><strong>The motley fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For the past 15 months, Wall Street and investors have enjoyed a historic bounce-back rally. The benchmarkS&P 500has gained more than 90% since hitting its bear-market bottom on March 23, 2020.\nWhile ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/05/5-ultra-popular-stocks-avoid-like-plague-in-july/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAVA":"Cassava Sciences Inc","AMC":"AMC院线","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","INO":"伊诺维奥制药"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/05/5-ultra-popular-stocks-avoid-like-plague-in-july/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164348327","content_text":"For the past 15 months, Wall Street and investors have enjoyed a historic bounce-back rally. The benchmarkS&P 500has gained more than 90% since hitting its bear-market bottom on March 23, 2020.\nWhile a number of high-quality and innovative businesses have led this rally, it's also allowed quite a few terrible companies to thrive. It's my suggestion that the following five ultra-popular stocks be avoided like the plague in July.\nCoinbase Global\nFirst up is cryptocurrency exchange and ecosystemCoinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN). Coinbase is popular given how quickly its revenue and profits surged in the first quarter as investors piled into the likes ofBitcoin andEthereum. The problem is there are a trio of catalysts working against the Coinbase brokerage model.\nTo start with, there's nothing that prevents competing exchanges from undercutting Coinbase Global's fees. It might have the verified user advantage at the moment, but don't underestimate the willingness of crypto investors to jump ship to save on transaction fees. We witnessed it among traditional brokerages, and the industry eventually wound up going commission-free.\nSecond,crypto has a history of boom-and-bust cycles. Bitcoin has had three separate instances over the last decade where it's shed at least 80% of its value. This is an entirely momentum-based investment, and when upside momentum dries up, so does Coinbase's trading revenue. Following a 2017 peak, Coinbase saw its revenue nearly halve in subsequent years.\nAnd third, the past four weeks, through June 28, saw outflows from crypto of $257.3 million, according to CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly. This is more evidence that interest in crypto is already dwindling with these assets well off their highs. Suffice it to say, Coinbase isnot a stock you're going to want to ownmoving forward.\nCassava Sciences\nAnother ultra-popular company with a terrible risk-versus-reward ratio is clinical-stagebiotech stockCassava Sciences(NASDAQ:SAVA).\nCassava rightly made waves in February when it announced positive clinical data from an interim analysis of simufilam as a treatment for Alzheimer's disease. The open-label trial showed improvement in cognition and behavior at the six-month mark, and more recently allowed Cassava to outline its plans for a phase 3 trial involving its lead drug candidate.\nI'd love for simufilam to be successful, but history has shown that Alzheimer's is one of the toughest-to-treat diseases. With the exception ofBiogen's Aduhelm, which was approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) but has been criticized heavily for its lack of clear benefit, every Alzheimer's drughas failed in late-stage studies for more than a decade. All investors have to go on is early stage, open-label data from a trial that aimed to enroll 100 patients. It's not been uncommon to see positive early or-mid-stage results get pulverized come a large phase 3 Alzheimer's trial.\nAlthough Cassava raised a good amount of cash to continue its research, history suggests that simufilam's chance of success is very slim. That makes Cassava Sciences easily avoidable.\nGameStop\nIf you've been following the retail trade movement (i.e. Reddit stocks), whereby retail investors are seeking out heavily short-sold companies and attempting to effect a short squeeze, you probably know video game and accessories retailerGameStop(NYSE:GME).\nOn one hand, GameStop has been able to capitalize on its recent fame byselling stock to raise capitalfor its ongoing transformation to a digital gaming company. It's a much-needed move after e-commerce sales jumped 191% in fiscal 2020 and more than quadrupled during the holiday season, from the prior-year period.\nHowever, these capital raises don't overlook the fact that theprevious management team failed the company. For two decades, a brick-and-mortar gaming model worked well. However, sticking to this brick-and-mortar model when gaming was going digital left the company in a precarious position. Today, GameStop continues to lose money, even with rapid e-commerce growth, and saw its same-store sales decline by almost 10% last year. Digital sales may be growing, but total revenue is going nowhere as GameStop shutters its physical locations to lower costs.\nGameStop is in no way a bankruptcy candidate, and I can actually see a path to profitability years down the road. But with that being said, the gains it's seen make no sense given the long transformation and operating losses that lie ahead.\nInovio Pharmaceuticals\nBiotech stocks can offer ample opportunity, or inInovio Pharmaceuticals'(NASDAQ:INO)case, suck the lifeblood out of long-term investors.\nInovio would appear to be an intriguing company based solely on paper. It has a pipeline that currently includes over a dozen clinical candidates to treat cancer, infectious diseases, and human papilloma virus. The most-promising looks to be INO-4800, the company's coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine candidate that's readying for phase 3 studies. But if you do any digging into Inovio's clinical performance, you'll be sorely disappointed.\nFor example, INO-4800had been placed on partial clinical holdin the U.S. while regulators requested additional data on Inovio's vaccine and its delivery system, Cellectra. More recently, INO-4800 had its late-stage funding pulled by the U.S. government, which is why it's now seeking an international study for its COVID-19 candidate.\nIf you think I'm unfairly picking on Inovio for its COVID-19 struggles, pan out even further. In four decades, Inoviohasn't managed to get a drug approved by the FDA. This isn't me wishing bad things on Inovio -- this is the reality that hope and results haven't aligned with this company for a long time. Until Inovio proves itself in a late-stage clinical trial, it's worth avoiding.\nAMC Entertainment\nFinally, I can't forgetongoing pump-and-dump schemeAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC). While retail investors were able to claim victory by effecting a short squeeze in January after AMC saved itself by issuing a bunch of shares and high-interest debt, the most recent run-up has nothing to do with a short squeeze. Rather, it's based predominantly on hype, the purposeful obfuscation of concrete fundamental data on message boards, and broad-based, blatant misinformation.\nAMC's retail investors would like you to believe that fundamentals don't matter -- but try driving a car without an engine and see how far you get. AMC is dealing with a 19-year decline in industry ticket sales and is seeing some of its film exclusivity evaporate as movie studios lean on streaming. There will be a place for movie theaters, but AMC'saddressable market keeps shrinkingwith each passing year.\nAMC's retail investors would also have you believe the company is in great shape after raising $2 billion in capital. While it has put bankruptcy rumors in the near-term on the backburner, the 2027 bond price is nowhere near par. Why, you ask? Because bondholders aren't convinced that AMC is going to escape bankruptcy.\nI've seen enough pump-and-dump campaigns in my life to recognize them, andAMC checks all the boxes. My suggestion isn't to short AMC. My suggestion is to avoid it completely. All pump-and-dump schemes eventually collapse, and AMC will be no exception.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154714280,"gmtCreate":1625545215240,"gmtModify":1703743430518,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Read","listText":"Good Read","text":"Good Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154714280","repostId":"1191866145","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158813717,"gmtCreate":1625143146339,"gmtModify":1703736998234,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158813717","repostId":"2148424988","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148424988","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1625133124,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148424988?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 17:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For July 1, 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148424988","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wall Street expects <b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> Inc</b> (NASDAQ:WBA) to report quarterly earnings at $1.17 per share on revenue of $33.76 billion before the opening bell. Walgreens shares gained 0.7% to $53.00 in after-hours trading.</li>\n <li><b>Micron Technology, Inc. </b> (NASDAQ:MU) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter. The company also agreed to sell its Lehi, Utah, fab to Texas Instruments. Micron shares 2.3% to $83.05 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts are expecting <b> McCormick &amp; Company, Incorporated</b> (NYSE:MKC) to have earned $0.61 per share on revenue of $1.47 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. McCormick shares fell 0.1% to $88.29 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Realty Income Corporation</b> (NYSE:O) priced an underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of its common stock for expected gross proceeds of around $519 million. Realty Income shares fell 1.3% to $65.85 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts expect <b> Acuity Brands, Inc.</b> (NYSE:AYI) to report quarterly earnings at $2.27 per share on revenue of $839.75 million before the opening bell. Acuity Brands shares gained 1.5% to $189.89 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For July 1, 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For July 1, 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-01 17:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wall Street expects <b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> Inc</b> (NASDAQ:WBA) to report quarterly earnings at $1.17 per share on revenue of $33.76 billion before the opening bell. Walgreens shares gained 0.7% to $53.00 in after-hours trading.</li>\n <li><b>Micron Technology, Inc. </b> (NASDAQ:MU) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter. The company also agreed to sell its Lehi, Utah, fab to Texas Instruments. Micron shares 2.3% to $83.05 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts are expecting <b> McCormick &amp; Company, Incorporated</b> (NYSE:MKC) to have earned $0.61 per share on revenue of $1.47 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. McCormick shares fell 0.1% to $88.29 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Realty Income Corporation</b> (NYSE:O) priced an underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of its common stock for expected gross proceeds of around $519 million. Realty Income shares fell 1.3% to $65.85 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts expect <b> Acuity Brands, Inc.</b> (NYSE:AYI) to report quarterly earnings at $2.27 per share on revenue of $839.75 million before the opening bell. Acuity Brands shares gained 1.5% to $189.89 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"O":"Realty Income Corp","AYI":"Acuity Brands Inc","MU":"美光科技","MKC":"味好美","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148424988","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects  Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (NASDAQ:WBA) to report quarterly earnings at $1.17 per share on revenue of $33.76 billion before the opening bell. Walgreens shares gained 0.7% to $53.00 in after-hours trading.\nMicron Technology, Inc.  (NASDAQ:MU) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter. The company also agreed to sell its Lehi, Utah, fab to Texas Instruments. Micron shares 2.3% to $83.05 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting  McCormick & Company, Incorporated (NYSE:MKC) to have earned $0.61 per share on revenue of $1.47 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. McCormick shares fell 0.1% to $88.29 in after-hours trading.\n\n\nRealty Income Corporation (NYSE:O) priced an underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of its common stock for expected gross proceeds of around $519 million. Realty Income shares fell 1.3% to $65.85 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts expect  Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:AYI) to report quarterly earnings at $2.27 per share on revenue of $839.75 million before the opening bell. Acuity Brands shares gained 1.5% to $189.89 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158806162,"gmtCreate":1625141749756,"gmtModify":1703736958937,"author":{"id":"4088222297029790","authorId":"4088222297029790","name":"StanleyO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95419e33f00da5cc2a2d8341c1c80638","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088222297029790","idStr":"4088222297029790"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158806162","repostId":"1160838487","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160838487","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625127624,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160838487?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 16:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Krispy Kreme IPO: What To Know About This Stock Before Buying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160838487","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nKrispy Kreme, Inc. is returning to the public markets after going private in 2016.\nThe grow","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNUT\">Krispy Kreme, Inc.</a></b> is returning to the public markets after going private in 2016.</li>\n <li>The growth story here looks intriguing, centering on expansion into new markets domestically and overseas.</li>\n <li>But what will be DNUT stock - has significant valuation questions, even when looking closely.</li>\n <li>The initial range looks potentially aggressive, and suggests some caution toward early trading.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>There's a modest irony to the fact that Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is holding its second initial public offering in 2021. After the company's first IPO in 2000, Krispy Kreme stock looked a bit like some of this market's most popular names.</p>\n<p>What was then KKD stock was heavily popular with retail investors — and heavily shorted by hedge funds. That short interest made the stock hard to borrow (a close friend worked in stock lending at the time, and KKD might have been the most desired issue out there) — and appeared tocreate a 'short squeeze'that kept the stock trading well above its fundamentals. Krispy Kreme stock wasn't quite a 'meme stock' in the way that GameStop (GME) or AMC Entertainment (AMC) are, but it could be seen as an ancestor of the names that have garnered so much attention this year.</p>\n<p>It remains to be seen how individual investors treat DNUT stock, but there is an interesting story here. Despite being more than 80 years old, Krispy Kreme sees room for expansion both in the U.S. and overseas. Results since the 2016 acquisition by JAB Holdings look impressive. As a business, Krispy Kreme does look attractive.</p>\n<p>As a stock, however, there's already an obvious concern: valuation. The IPO range doesn't exactly move Krispy Kreme stock into meme territory in terms of the fundamentals, but the anticipated price does seem to imply that an awful lot goes right going forward. Add in a broad and deep lock-up expiration on the horizon, and it looks like caution should be advised here.</p>\n<p><b>When Will Krispy Kreme Go Public?</b></p>\n<p>It hasn't yet been announced exactly when DNUT stock will start trading. Given that the range has been announced, it should be relatively soon. The short week after the July 4th holiday is one possibility, though Krispy Kreme might try and get the IPO completed before the long weekend.</p>\n<p>Krispy Kreme is selling 26.7 million shares in the offering, plus 4 million more in an underwriter's option. DNUT stock will be listed on the NASDAQ — interestingly, a change from its previous listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The proceeds are going to reduce — though not eliminate — existing debt on the balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>How Much Will Krispy Kreme Stock Be?</b></p>\n<p>The range for the Krispy Kreme IPO is$21 to $24 per share. On its face, that seems reasonably high.</p>\n<p>Per the amended S-1 (see p.19), Krispy Kreme will have164.9 million shares outstandingafter the IPO, assuming the underwriters' option is exercised in full. Should DNUT stock price at $24, Krispy Kreme would have a market capitalization just shy of $4 billion. Even with the IPO proceeds going to pay down the company's term loan, net debt will still be about $541 million.</p>\n<p>That in turn implies an enterprise value for Krispy Kreme of about $4.5 billion. From a number of viewpoints, that seems like an aggressive valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Is DNUT Stock Overvalued Already?</b></p>\n<p>Notably, JABonly paid $1.35 billionto acquire Krispy Kreme when the deal closed less than five and a half years ago. At the high end of the range, the company's valuation would be more than triple that figure.</p>\n<p>There's someanchoring biasat play there, and as we shall see Krispy Kreme's results have improved in the interim. Still, when we've seen IPOs over the past year like Snowflake (SNOW) and Airbnb (ABNB) soar out of the gate — yet that past valuation does seem to hover any hopes for a huge post-IPO spike.</p>\n<p>The 2016 valuation isn't the only concern. Based on recent results, DNUT stock looks awfully expensive. Adjusted EBITDA over the twelve months through the first quarter of this year is $163 million.</p>\n<p>(A technical note: that number comes from results cited in the company'sinitial S-1 filing. Interestingly, in the amended filing, Krispy Kreme disclosed a lower figure after excluding the adjustment of pre-opening costs not related to the massive 24-hour store in Times Square. It's not clear why that change was made; it's possible auditors thought the full exclusion of all pre-opening costs was too aggressive.)</p>\n<p>At $163 million, EV/EBITDA is a healthy 28x. Dunkin' Brands went private at24.5x trailing twelve-month EBITDA— and traded in the ~20x range before the acquisition was announced. Starbucks (SBUX) at the moment trades at about 25x 2019 EBITDA (results since obviously have seen an enormous impact from the novel coronavirus pandemic; Krispy Kreme does not appear to have seen quite the same pressure). Domino's Pizza (DPZ), one of the best franchised businesses out there, is inthe 25x range; McDonald's (MCD) tradedin the high teensbefore the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Using adjusted net income, valuation seems even more extreme. Trailing twelve-month net income of $54.7 million (again, using the more favorable numbers from the initial S-1) suggests a price-to-earnings multiple of 72x. That's a figure seemingly more suitable to a software play than a donut seller.</p>\n<p><b>Is Krispy Kreme Profitable? Kind Of</b></p>\n<p>These multiples do look rather high. But it's not as if the underwriters and the company chose the $21 to $24 range simply because that's where they hoped the stock would trade. The lead underwriters don't want to see the Krispy Kreme IPO tank. Nor does the company. During the 'roadshow' process, the bankers are gauging demand, and using that information to price the offering accordingly.</p>\n<p>So there are institutional investors out there who have indicated they might be willing to pay $24 — which in turn means they project upside from that price. What are they seeing to support that optimism?</p>\n<p>There are answers to that question. First, Krispy Kreme has performed rather well since the acquisition even if net income numbers don't quite show that. GAAP net income figures in fact were negative the last two years, though there's a lot of noise in those numbers.</p>\n<p>Adjusted numbers are positive, but on their face not much better. The TTM adjusted net income figure of $54.7 million, for instance, is barely abovethe $53.5 millionposted in fiscal 2015 (which ended Jan. 31, 2016). But Krispy Kreme now faces significant interest expense as a result of the borrowings that financed the go-private. Krispy Kreme paid $57 million in interest last year — and $1.3 million in FY15.</p>\n<p>The company also has aggressively invested behind the business. Costs in NYC alone were $6.5 million in 2020. The company overhauled its wholesale business, moving to a \"hub and spoke\" model in which Krispy Kreme \"Hot Light Theater\" shops serve as suppliers to DFD (delivered fresh daily) outlets in supermarkets and convenience stores.</p>\n<p>All told, there's been spending here that won't repeat going forward. Adjusted EBITDA, which excludes many of those expenses, more than doubled between fiscal 2015 and fiscal 2020 (fiscal years now roughly match up with calendar years). Organic revenue growth, which excludes the impact of franchise acquisitions, has been reasonably solid: 3% in 2018, 5% in 2019, despite some impacts from significant changes to the business model. The top line (again, excluding acquisitions), even grew 1% last year despite the impact of the pandemic. An 8% print in the first quarter of 2021 gets the year off to a good start.</p>\n<p>This does seem like a much better business than it was five-plus years ago. JAB has made a number of significant changes, the effects of which no doubt were muted by the craziness of 2020. Going forward, fresher products and more distribution should be able to drive some growth.</p>\n<p>There's a big opportunity to acquire more customers as well. Krispy Kreme sees room for expansion within the U.S., with the company highlighting the New York and Chicago metropolitan areas as particular targets. Those two areas have about 28 million residents combined, and Boston and Minneapolis too represent potentially fertile ground.</p>\n<p>International expansion is another driver. Over the past three and a half years, Krispy Kreme spent $466 million to acquire franchises, the majority of which were overseas. China, Brazil, and Western Europe present opportunities going forward. International markets drove 27% of revenue in 2019 and 24% last year.</p>\n<p>Krispy Kreme also owns 75% of Insomnia Cookies, which appears to be a hugely profitable and high-margin business. Insomnia's direct-to-consumer experience should underpin Krispy Kreme's own efforts in e-commerce and delivery.</p>\n<p>Finally, there's the impact of the pandemic to consider. Krispy Kreme's 2020 results were far from awful. Adjusted EBITDA increased 1.2%, and again organic revenue rose 1%. But the U.S. and Canada segment actually posted a 30% increase. Some of that growth came from franchise acquisitions, which shifted profits into that segment from the Market Development segment. Still, overseas markets, where pandemic restrictions were more onerous (notably in the U.K. and Ireland) were a notable drag, hitting consolidated growth by nearly six percentage points.</p>\n<p><b>Should You Buy Krispy Kreme's IPO?</b></p>\n<p>At the very least, there's more here than the headlines suggest, and little reason to dismiss the case for DNUT stock as paying 70x earnings for literal donuts. Between interest expense savings (which appear to be 11 cents per share after-tax) and some post-pandemic normalization, it's not difficult to model this as a business whose multiples are more in line with the sector. Interest expense alone gets adjusted EPS to 44 cents; the 2022 figure could well exceed 60 cents, getting P/E down below 40x. Similarly, international improvements and other \"return to normalcy\" benefits suggest a path toward EV/EBITDA moving into the low 20s.</p>\n<p>Neither multiple makes Krispy Kreme a deep value play, certainly. But on an EV/EBITDA basis at least, DNUT slots in between the likes of SBUX and DNUT on one hand and MCD on the other. That makes some sense. Krispy Kreme certainly isn't as good a business as those giants — but it also has far more room for expansion and growth. McDonald's and Starbucks, in particular, face markets that are saturated or very close to it.</p>\n<p>In fact, the case for upside in Krispy Kreme stock is that it should trade at a<i>premium</i>to peers. Given the improvements in underlying performance, the changes to the business model, and the room for expansion, that case isn't as crazy as it sounds. Indeed, there's already a template for that kind of trading. Shake Shack (SHAK) has looked expensive (and sometimes ridiculously expensive) since it went public in early 2015. SHAK stock still has gained 133% from its IPO price. That chain'sinternational opportunityhas been one key reason why.</p>\n<p>There are two big long-term problems, however. The first is that the valuation is incorporating some level of success, and that problem only gets worse if Krispy Kreme stock sees a post-IPO 'pop'. This is a good business (and I personally love the donuts), but it's not necessarily a great business yet. As the company itself noted in the S-1, the average customer visits less than three times a year. There's some logic to DNUT stock trading at a mid-20s EV/EBITDA multiple, but getting to that multiple being<i>compelling</i>is a different story.</p>\n<p>The second, more important, problem is that a case based on expansion requires that the expansion be successful. Krispy Kreme hasn't proven that will be the case. The company has failed in entering the Boston marketnot once, but twice. (Admittedly, New England is home turf for Dunkin'.) The franchise acquisitions generally appear to have occurred because those franchises were underperforming, and it's not clear why new franchises overseas won't have a few that perform similarly.</p>\n<p>There's also a lockup to keep an eye on. After the IPO, JAB is distributing most of the non-IPO shares to \"approximately 100 minority partners.\" Those partners are subject to a 180-day lockup; after that, there could be some aggressive selling.</p>\n<p>All told, the story seems better than might be thought, but not quite good enough to support a $4.5 billion enterprise value (or at least much upside from that level). At the right price, DNUT would be more attractive; my personal target would be something closer to $18 (~20x 2021 EBITDA). And we could see that price. The 2021 IPO market has been notably softer than last year's. AppLovin (APP) tanked out of the gate in April, and provideda strong buying opportunitynot long after. I'd love to see the same thing play out with DNUT stock, because at $24 I'm just not convinced there's any need to rush in.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Krispy Kreme IPO: What To Know About This Stock Before Buying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKrispy Kreme IPO: What To Know About This Stock Before Buying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 16:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436570-krispy-kreme-ipo-what-to-know-before-buying><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nKrispy Kreme, Inc. is returning to the public markets after going private in 2016.\nThe growth story here looks intriguing, centering on expansion into new markets domestically and overseas.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436570-krispy-kreme-ipo-what-to-know-before-buying\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DNUT":"Krispy Kreme, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436570-krispy-kreme-ipo-what-to-know-before-buying","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1160838487","content_text":"Summary\n\nKrispy Kreme, Inc. is returning to the public markets after going private in 2016.\nThe growth story here looks intriguing, centering on expansion into new markets domestically and overseas.\nBut what will be DNUT stock - has significant valuation questions, even when looking closely.\nThe initial range looks potentially aggressive, and suggests some caution toward early trading.\n\nThere's a modest irony to the fact that Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is holding its second initial public offering in 2021. After the company's first IPO in 2000, Krispy Kreme stock looked a bit like some of this market's most popular names.\nWhat was then KKD stock was heavily popular with retail investors — and heavily shorted by hedge funds. That short interest made the stock hard to borrow (a close friend worked in stock lending at the time, and KKD might have been the most desired issue out there) — and appeared tocreate a 'short squeeze'that kept the stock trading well above its fundamentals. Krispy Kreme stock wasn't quite a 'meme stock' in the way that GameStop (GME) or AMC Entertainment (AMC) are, but it could be seen as an ancestor of the names that have garnered so much attention this year.\nIt remains to be seen how individual investors treat DNUT stock, but there is an interesting story here. Despite being more than 80 years old, Krispy Kreme sees room for expansion both in the U.S. and overseas. Results since the 2016 acquisition by JAB Holdings look impressive. As a business, Krispy Kreme does look attractive.\nAs a stock, however, there's already an obvious concern: valuation. The IPO range doesn't exactly move Krispy Kreme stock into meme territory in terms of the fundamentals, but the anticipated price does seem to imply that an awful lot goes right going forward. Add in a broad and deep lock-up expiration on the horizon, and it looks like caution should be advised here.\nWhen Will Krispy Kreme Go Public?\nIt hasn't yet been announced exactly when DNUT stock will start trading. Given that the range has been announced, it should be relatively soon. The short week after the July 4th holiday is one possibility, though Krispy Kreme might try and get the IPO completed before the long weekend.\nKrispy Kreme is selling 26.7 million shares in the offering, plus 4 million more in an underwriter's option. DNUT stock will be listed on the NASDAQ — interestingly, a change from its previous listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The proceeds are going to reduce — though not eliminate — existing debt on the balance sheet.\nHow Much Will Krispy Kreme Stock Be?\nThe range for the Krispy Kreme IPO is$21 to $24 per share. On its face, that seems reasonably high.\nPer the amended S-1 (see p.19), Krispy Kreme will have164.9 million shares outstandingafter the IPO, assuming the underwriters' option is exercised in full. Should DNUT stock price at $24, Krispy Kreme would have a market capitalization just shy of $4 billion. Even with the IPO proceeds going to pay down the company's term loan, net debt will still be about $541 million.\nThat in turn implies an enterprise value for Krispy Kreme of about $4.5 billion. From a number of viewpoints, that seems like an aggressive valuation.\nIs DNUT Stock Overvalued Already?\nNotably, JABonly paid $1.35 billionto acquire Krispy Kreme when the deal closed less than five and a half years ago. At the high end of the range, the company's valuation would be more than triple that figure.\nThere's someanchoring biasat play there, and as we shall see Krispy Kreme's results have improved in the interim. Still, when we've seen IPOs over the past year like Snowflake (SNOW) and Airbnb (ABNB) soar out of the gate — yet that past valuation does seem to hover any hopes for a huge post-IPO spike.\nThe 2016 valuation isn't the only concern. Based on recent results, DNUT stock looks awfully expensive. Adjusted EBITDA over the twelve months through the first quarter of this year is $163 million.\n(A technical note: that number comes from results cited in the company'sinitial S-1 filing. Interestingly, in the amended filing, Krispy Kreme disclosed a lower figure after excluding the adjustment of pre-opening costs not related to the massive 24-hour store in Times Square. It's not clear why that change was made; it's possible auditors thought the full exclusion of all pre-opening costs was too aggressive.)\nAt $163 million, EV/EBITDA is a healthy 28x. Dunkin' Brands went private at24.5x trailing twelve-month EBITDA— and traded in the ~20x range before the acquisition was announced. Starbucks (SBUX) at the moment trades at about 25x 2019 EBITDA (results since obviously have seen an enormous impact from the novel coronavirus pandemic; Krispy Kreme does not appear to have seen quite the same pressure). Domino's Pizza (DPZ), one of the best franchised businesses out there, is inthe 25x range; McDonald's (MCD) tradedin the high teensbefore the pandemic.\nUsing adjusted net income, valuation seems even more extreme. Trailing twelve-month net income of $54.7 million (again, using the more favorable numbers from the initial S-1) suggests a price-to-earnings multiple of 72x. That's a figure seemingly more suitable to a software play than a donut seller.\nIs Krispy Kreme Profitable? Kind Of\nThese multiples do look rather high. But it's not as if the underwriters and the company chose the $21 to $24 range simply because that's where they hoped the stock would trade. The lead underwriters don't want to see the Krispy Kreme IPO tank. Nor does the company. During the 'roadshow' process, the bankers are gauging demand, and using that information to price the offering accordingly.\nSo there are institutional investors out there who have indicated they might be willing to pay $24 — which in turn means they project upside from that price. What are they seeing to support that optimism?\nThere are answers to that question. First, Krispy Kreme has performed rather well since the acquisition even if net income numbers don't quite show that. GAAP net income figures in fact were negative the last two years, though there's a lot of noise in those numbers.\nAdjusted numbers are positive, but on their face not much better. The TTM adjusted net income figure of $54.7 million, for instance, is barely abovethe $53.5 millionposted in fiscal 2015 (which ended Jan. 31, 2016). But Krispy Kreme now faces significant interest expense as a result of the borrowings that financed the go-private. Krispy Kreme paid $57 million in interest last year — and $1.3 million in FY15.\nThe company also has aggressively invested behind the business. Costs in NYC alone were $6.5 million in 2020. The company overhauled its wholesale business, moving to a \"hub and spoke\" model in which Krispy Kreme \"Hot Light Theater\" shops serve as suppliers to DFD (delivered fresh daily) outlets in supermarkets and convenience stores.\nAll told, there's been spending here that won't repeat going forward. Adjusted EBITDA, which excludes many of those expenses, more than doubled between fiscal 2015 and fiscal 2020 (fiscal years now roughly match up with calendar years). Organic revenue growth, which excludes the impact of franchise acquisitions, has been reasonably solid: 3% in 2018, 5% in 2019, despite some impacts from significant changes to the business model. The top line (again, excluding acquisitions), even grew 1% last year despite the impact of the pandemic. An 8% print in the first quarter of 2021 gets the year off to a good start.\nThis does seem like a much better business than it was five-plus years ago. JAB has made a number of significant changes, the effects of which no doubt were muted by the craziness of 2020. Going forward, fresher products and more distribution should be able to drive some growth.\nThere's a big opportunity to acquire more customers as well. Krispy Kreme sees room for expansion within the U.S., with the company highlighting the New York and Chicago metropolitan areas as particular targets. Those two areas have about 28 million residents combined, and Boston and Minneapolis too represent potentially fertile ground.\nInternational expansion is another driver. Over the past three and a half years, Krispy Kreme spent $466 million to acquire franchises, the majority of which were overseas. China, Brazil, and Western Europe present opportunities going forward. International markets drove 27% of revenue in 2019 and 24% last year.\nKrispy Kreme also owns 75% of Insomnia Cookies, which appears to be a hugely profitable and high-margin business. Insomnia's direct-to-consumer experience should underpin Krispy Kreme's own efforts in e-commerce and delivery.\nFinally, there's the impact of the pandemic to consider. Krispy Kreme's 2020 results were far from awful. Adjusted EBITDA increased 1.2%, and again organic revenue rose 1%. But the U.S. and Canada segment actually posted a 30% increase. Some of that growth came from franchise acquisitions, which shifted profits into that segment from the Market Development segment. Still, overseas markets, where pandemic restrictions were more onerous (notably in the U.K. and Ireland) were a notable drag, hitting consolidated growth by nearly six percentage points.\nShould You Buy Krispy Kreme's IPO?\nAt the very least, there's more here than the headlines suggest, and little reason to dismiss the case for DNUT stock as paying 70x earnings for literal donuts. Between interest expense savings (which appear to be 11 cents per share after-tax) and some post-pandemic normalization, it's not difficult to model this as a business whose multiples are more in line with the sector. Interest expense alone gets adjusted EPS to 44 cents; the 2022 figure could well exceed 60 cents, getting P/E down below 40x. Similarly, international improvements and other \"return to normalcy\" benefits suggest a path toward EV/EBITDA moving into the low 20s.\nNeither multiple makes Krispy Kreme a deep value play, certainly. But on an EV/EBITDA basis at least, DNUT slots in between the likes of SBUX and DNUT on one hand and MCD on the other. That makes some sense. Krispy Kreme certainly isn't as good a business as those giants — but it also has far more room for expansion and growth. McDonald's and Starbucks, in particular, face markets that are saturated or very close to it.\nIn fact, the case for upside in Krispy Kreme stock is that it should trade at apremiumto peers. Given the improvements in underlying performance, the changes to the business model, and the room for expansion, that case isn't as crazy as it sounds. Indeed, there's already a template for that kind of trading. Shake Shack (SHAK) has looked expensive (and sometimes ridiculously expensive) since it went public in early 2015. SHAK stock still has gained 133% from its IPO price. That chain'sinternational opportunityhas been one key reason why.\nThere are two big long-term problems, however. The first is that the valuation is incorporating some level of success, and that problem only gets worse if Krispy Kreme stock sees a post-IPO 'pop'. This is a good business (and I personally love the donuts), but it's not necessarily a great business yet. As the company itself noted in the S-1, the average customer visits less than three times a year. There's some logic to DNUT stock trading at a mid-20s EV/EBITDA multiple, but getting to that multiple beingcompellingis a different story.\nThe second, more important, problem is that a case based on expansion requires that the expansion be successful. Krispy Kreme hasn't proven that will be the case. The company has failed in entering the Boston marketnot once, but twice. (Admittedly, New England is home turf for Dunkin'.) The franchise acquisitions generally appear to have occurred because those franchises were underperforming, and it's not clear why new franchises overseas won't have a few that perform similarly.\nThere's also a lockup to keep an eye on. After the IPO, JAB is distributing most of the non-IPO shares to \"approximately 100 minority partners.\" Those partners are subject to a 180-day lockup; after that, there could be some aggressive selling.\nAll told, the story seems better than might be thought, but not quite good enough to support a $4.5 billion enterprise value (or at least much upside from that level). At the right price, DNUT would be more attractive; my personal target would be something closer to $18 (~20x 2021 EBITDA). And we could see that price. The 2021 IPO market has been notably softer than last year's. AppLovin (APP) tanked out of the gate in April, and provideda strong buying opportunitynot long after. I'd love to see the same thing play out with DNUT stock, because at $24 I'm just not convinced there's any need to rush in.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}