Yap Wai Hong personal page - To The Moon

Yap Wai Hong

Yap Wai Hong

Profile：在马来西亚赚美金不是梦

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2023-12-29

2024 Beat the market

2023-03-02

$SPDR能源指数ETF(XLE)$

2023-01-22

$SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF(SPYG)$

2022-11-28

$爱彼迎(ABNB)$

2022-10-11

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$[得意]

2022-10-09

$DraftKings Inc.(DKNG)$

2022-10-02

Palo Alto

特斯拉AI Day 2022全解读：能走会动的Tesla Bot，DOJO超算明年量产、还有FSD新进展

2022-10-01

$Sea Ltd(SE)$[得意]

2022-09-25

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$[得意]

2022-09-20

$Kenon Holdings Ltd(KEN)$[得意]

2022-09-18

$波音(BA)$[微笑]

2022-09-16

$Roku Inc(ROKU)$[得意]

2022-09-16

$金融ETF(XLF)$[得意]

2022-09-15

$Twilio Inc(TWLO)$[得意]

2022-09-14

$金融ETF(XLF)$[微笑]

2022-09-13

$阿莎娜(ASAN)$[得意]

2022-09-12

$Zscaler Inc.(ZS)$[得意]

2022-09-11

$爱彼迎(ABNB)$[得意]

2022-09-10

$高科技指数ETF-SPDR(XLK)$[得意]

2022-09-10

$金融ETF(XLF)$[得意]

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&nbsp;</a>","text":"$爱彼迎(ABNB)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ee23300dbe396ca27a745aafa38474a","width":"1080","height":"2780"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966552311","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917357020,"gmtCreate":1665446090460,"gmtModify":1676537606358,"author":{"id":"4088247795049920","authorId":"4088247795049920","name":"Yap Wai Hong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7710b70b68b33532687ac65fc65f96d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$Opendoor Technologies 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Alto","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916783890","repostId":"1150155136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150155136","pubTimestamp":1664616181,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150155136?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-01 17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉AI Day 2022全解读：能走会动的Tesla Bot，DOJO超算明年量产、还有FSD新进展","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150155136","media":"电动星球News","summary":"几个小时前，特斯拉正式举办了 2022 AI Day，一场全球汽车、人工智能、信息科技行业翘首以待足足 13 个月的发布会。严格意义上 AI Day 不像是「发布会」，而是「交流会」——马斯克本人也在","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>几个小时前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>正式举办了 2022 AI Day，一场全球汽车、人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>、信息科技行业翘首以待足足 13 个月的发布会。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8803475646fc32fd19f6657d5112fe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>严格意义上 AI Day 不像是「发布会」，而是「交流会」——马斯克本人也在推特上说，<b>「此活动旨在招聘 AI 和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>工程师，因此技术含量很高」</b>——换句话说，这是马斯克的高山流水，为特斯拉的锺子期而开。</p><p>不过这并不妨碍我们以比较轻松的视角，记录下这场科技狂欢。因为特斯拉团队几乎 100% 实现了去年的承诺，在本届 AI Day 上带来了以下技术成果：</p><p><b>不再需要群演的真·Tesla Bot 机器人原型机；</b></p><p><b>不再停留在 PPT 的 DOJO POD 人工智能超级计算机；</b></p><p><b>FSD 技术新进展，等等。</b></p><p>当然，即使我们会尽力写得简单点，今天的文章依然会相对硬核。趁着国庆假期，建议大家可以慢慢看，下面马上开始。</p><p><b>一、Tesla Bot 原型机</b></p><p>Optimus 它来了！</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab53fdbd457f788ef39a1d9919389ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>13 个月前还需要群演的 Tesla Bot，今天正式以原型机的形式出现——原型意思是<b>它还没穿衣服（外壳）</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcaee2a3239269a6af58a05db6ac8417\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>原型机的样子比 PPT 里面明显更粗放，线束、促动器等零件堆砌略显凌乱。但好消息是，Tesla Bot 原型机已经可以走路、打招呼，双手可以完整举过头顶。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2b705c19e93a543e6cc3a1c7e0c37c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在特斯拉的演示视频里，Optimus 已经可以做一些简单的工作，比如搬运箱子、浇花等等。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f19762e88d3920e9a4ada708cb6d1f6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfb1c944c5b881d14db28c8f4604b0c2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b534c9c811249fa97342b12691d049b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但更重要的可能是这个画面：Optimus 眼中的世界，<b>通过纯视觉发现并分析周边的一切，然后识别出自己的任务对象。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0b4407ea6333fe710b73444f74d19c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>事实上 Optimus 不是不能装上外壳，但出于工程原因，带外壳版本截止到发布会当天还不能自如地走路（原因后面再解释），只能简单挥舞一下手臂。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3544fb2099584436950ca53ffce6023\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>装上外壳之后我们发现，更接近量产版的 Optimus，变得更胖了——现在它重 73 公斤，比去年 PPT 版「增重」超过 20%，整个「人」圆了一大圈。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c2e0f15bfe1b7939ed6fae7f16a0619\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>更接近量产，也意味着 Optimus 更高阶的参数也可以公布了：<b>100W 静坐功耗、500W 快步走功耗、超过 200 档的关节自由度，光手部自由度就有 27 档。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/039afba7177cebbdc4ed877be352b7cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外，<b>Optimus 的大脑由单块 FSD Chip 组成，意味着算力应该是 HW3.0 的一半（72TOPS）；电池则是 52V 电压、2.3kWh 容量、内置电子电气元件的一体单元。</b></p><p>说完数字，是时候聊聊 Optimus 的研发逻辑了。</p><p><b>1. 汽车化</b></p><p>马斯克说过<b>「当你能解决自动驾驶，你就能解决现实世界中的人工智能」</b>。这句话点破了特斯拉研发 Optimus 的方法论：大量借鉴汽车研发经验。</p><p>比如借鉴汽车碰撞模拟软件，为 Optimus 编写「跌倒测试」软件。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d71e64fac130c88c519e38c10f7bae68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>再比如利用汽车大规模零件的生产经验，为 Optimus 挑选尽可能保证成本+效率的原材料。「我们不会用碳纤维、钛合金这样的原材料。因为它们虽然很优秀，但像肩膀这样的易损部位，制造和维修成本都太贵了」。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a952bb18e0a7d3cd21f635e72bd6f55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>除此以外，制造 Optimus 的中心思想，也基本和智能汽车相当：减少线束长度、计算和电子控制单元中心化，等等。</p><p><b>2. 仿生学</b></p><p>既然是类人机器人 humanoid，设计自然要借鉴人类仿生学。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2059ba8af7bd4a74564e19e5a7a0c3fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>特斯拉用了几个例子解释 Optimus 的仿生学，首先是膝关节。特斯拉表示 Optimus 的关节希望尽量复刻生物学上的「非线性」逻辑，也就是贴合膝关节直立到完全弯曲时的受力曲线。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/093cc607f4e1764484894b9e63cfba7c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>为此，Optimus 的膝关节使用了类似于平面四杆机构的设计，最终发力效果会更接近人类。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4600fe5bc521375fed886e766ecd1fdb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>紧接着，我们创造人类文明的双手，才是 Optimus 类人之路更大的 boss。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c75b0de1bfce1e9340c6f66fb8391c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Optimus 光手掌区域就用了 6 个促动器，具有 11 档的自由度。拥有自适应的抓握角度、20 磅（9 公斤）负荷、工具使用能力、小物件精准抓握能力等等。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9165625d2ab1d7f020961db4ebe149c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>此外，Optimus 的手掌用的是「non-backdrivable」无法反向驱动的指尖促动器。学术界的看法是，这样的促动器可以提升在「开放环境」下的性能。</p><p>最后是让 Optimus 学着像人类一样走路——这里用到的仿生学设计叫做「运动重心控制」。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f52fd071ef0d384851c030a69d683a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>为什么有外壳的  Optimus 还不会走？其中一个原因就是重量变了，运动重心控制算法需要重新调试。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b2784fc70757f11b9e6cc0a0c727c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>事实上，Optimus 不仅要做到会走路，还要做到别摔倒。所以它不仅需要控制走路的重心，还要稳住受到外力（比如推搡）时的随机动态重心。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d525cbf7fdbcc36b915b30db5eff613d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>训练 FSD 用到的神经网络和在线仿真模拟</b>，这次在 Optimus 身上大显身手。<b>路径规划、视觉融合、视觉导航</b>等等熟悉的名词都被「灌输」到 Optimus 脑子里。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a31fa75cdf8e5c9d09662e0d21b8c51\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这样的努力下，Optimus 今年 4 月迈出了它的第一步；7 月份解锁了骨盆活动；8 月走路时可以摆手臂了——发布会前几周，实现了脚趾离地的类人行走动作。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7d02ca8c2cd350fe355c188bfb968ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. 「肌肉」</b></p><p>我们通过结缔组织包裹着的肌肉完成运动，机器人的「肌肉」则叫做促动器 actuator。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de747111c66e3c5fe67ab63226333b02\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>如上图所示，橙色部分均为 Optimus 的促动器，这些促动器也都是特斯拉完全自研的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5da9845173ab7eddf1c4f638e646c1f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>特斯拉为  Optimus 从力度大小的角度，设计了 6 种各自独特的促动器——这其实是很小的数字，<b>业界平均是 20-30，甚至 50 种，目的是覆盖尽可能多的人类活动细节。</b></p><p>为什么特斯拉的促动器种类这么少？原因还是 FSD 体系。</p><p>特斯拉举了 28 种人类常见活动，比如抬举手臂、弯曲右膝等。通过分析这些活动反馈的云数据，<b>找出各类运动的相对共同点，然后就可以尽量减少专门设计促动器的种类。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e1a6c9753e3c8ab582c060fb1f3be97\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然只是轻描淡写的一张 PPT，但我认为促动器从 50 种减少到 6 种，意义实际上远大于借鉴特斯拉电机经验的促动器本体——<b>因为它代表着数据为王的新工业时代。</b></p><p>不过促动器种类大幅度减少，也意味着 Optimus 前期的实际效果可能会没有那么「类人」，当然还是得等最终交付了。</p><p>最后来说一个数字：<b>2 万美元</b>（约 14 万元）。</p><p>这笔钱买不到半台 Model 3，但却是马斯克口中 Optimus 的目标售价。<b>「它会彻底改变人类社会的效率，就像无人交通可以彻底改变运输效率」</b>。</p><p><b>二、DOJO 的终极形态？</b></p><p>本来发布会的第二部分是 FSD，但那部分过于硬核，我决定先让大家看点激动人心的数字。</p><p>去年 DOJO 惊艳全世界，但遗憾的是有太多细节未公布。<b>D1 芯片是怎么组成 EXA POD 超算系统的？理论性能爆炸，能代表实际应用吗？</b></p><p>这部分，特斯拉举了大量的数据，证明自己已经是计算领域的新巨头。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46049affe465303b965a9eae221fe1e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>首先是散热。</b></p><p>先别发问号，超算平台的散热，一直是衡量超算制造者系统工程能力的重要维度。比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、华为、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>在公布自家方案的时候，都会花大篇幅讲散热。</p><p>DOJO POD 的散热可以用两个词概括：高集成度、高自研率。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc01b3d2eb00c916972bb0f463901f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>特斯拉在 DOJO POD 上使用了全自研的 VRM（电压调节模组），单个 VRM 模组可以在不足 25 美分硬币面积的电路上，提供超过 1000A 的电流。</p><p>高集成度带来的问题，是热膨胀系数 CTE。DOJO 堪称极限的体积集成率和发热，意味着 CTE 稍微失控，都会对系统结构造成巨大破坏（也就是会撑爆）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b89e0309fc92979fcc0544e43395e78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>为此，这套自研 VRM 在过去两年内迭代了 14 个版本，最终才完全符合特斯拉对 CTE 指标的要求。</p><p>目前 DOJO POD 已经进入负载测试阶段——单机柜 2.2MW 的负载，相当于 6 台 Model Y 双电机全力输出。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a690ca8342c81d44c53f98da2a5216e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>解决了散热，才有资格说集成度。</b></p><p>一个 DOJO POD 机柜由两层计算托盘和存储系统组成。每一层托盘都有 6 个 D1 Tile 计算「瓦片」——两层 12 片 组成的一个机柜，就可以提供 108PFLOPS 算力的深度学习性能。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefe4441c10c18928ac171726b35c75c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对了，DOJO POD 的供电模组也是 52V 电压的，Optimus 母亲实锤了。</p><p>每层托盘都连接着超高速存储系统：640GB 运行内存可以提供超过 18TB 每秒的运算带宽，另外还有超过 1TB 每秒的网络交换。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8182aab7ef49bf1807ba3faf6decdd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>为了适配训练软件以及运营/维护，每个托盘还配备了专属的管理计算中心。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8ec92bdd51cc4895f9ad44411a3c44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>最终，可以提供<b>1.1E 算力、13TB 运存、1.3TB 缓存</b>的 EXA POD，将于 2023 年 Q1，正式量产——<b>这也是今天发布会唯一一个有确定日期的特斯拉产品。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3130399d3b4808b0e5083b98e1877eb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>意大利炮有了，能不能轰下县城？</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb806e7598b3d28981907243c404eae4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>特斯拉表示，配合专属的编译器，DOJO 的训练延迟，最低可以做到同等规模 GPU 的<b>1/50！</b></p><p>最终，特斯拉的目标是到 2023 年 Q1 量产时，<b>DOJO 可以实现相比英伟达 A100，最高 4.4 倍的单芯片训练速度</b>——甚至能耗和成本都更低。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14920c55136e9bd5b7291378acfecdf0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>三、FSD 的新进化</b></p><p>文章来到这里，大家的手指应该已经划了很多次屏幕。这也说明，看到这里依然兴致勃勃的你，一定是特斯拉老粉——那就聊点更「无聊」、更硬核的吧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2d0dfc66bf889e9078c98744c779da\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>篇幅有限，本届 AI Day 关于 FSD 的进展，我们只聊三个点：<b>Occupancy Network、Training Optimization、Lanes</b>。</p><p><b>1. Occupancy Network</b></p><p>先聊一个概念：矢量图。做设计的朋友一定很熟悉，这是一种精度（分辨率）可以做到无限，但占用存储空间很小的数字绘图。</p><p>Occupancy Network，就是将 3D 向量数据绘制成矢量图的、 2019 年开始兴起的一种三维重建表达方法。</p><p>有意思的是，特斯拉用了最 Occupancy Network 的方式，表达他们对 Occupancy Network 的应用：网格（方块）化的 3D 模拟。</p><p>其实 FSD 眼中的世界并不是这样 Minecraft 化的，但 Occupancy Network 的本质特征，就是用「决策边界」描绘「物体边缘」。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933a6dff415d2a20aca4fa2aa387f44c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>尽管 Occupancy Network 效率很高，但实际训练规模依然足够可观。目前特斯拉公布的数据是超过<b>14.4 亿帧</b>视频数据，需要超过<b>10 万个 GPU 训练小时</b>，实际视频缓存超过<b>30PB</b>——而且全程 90℃ 满负载。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5c41679c5fd2e95dc11d2a51de11ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>二、因此，Training Optimization 训练优化尤为重要。</b></p><p>去年 Andrej 公布了特斯拉的千人 in-house 标注团队，今年特斯拉的重点，则在于优化自动标注流程。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e04573dd50a78f4179b4a2ad9853e39\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>大概总结一下就是，优化过后，训练时视频帧选取会更智能，同时大幅度减少选取的视频帧数量——<b>可以提高 30% 的训练速度</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ae0aee2c7838d44aedec2ba8e7b4d6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外视频模型训练时 smol 异步库文件体积可以缩小 11%，所需的读取次数足足缩小到 1/4...<b>最终这套优化流程让特斯拉的 Occupancy Network 训练效率提升了 2.3 倍。</b></p><p><b>3. 最后聊聊车道线 Lanes。</b></p><p>从 FSD Beta 10.12 开始，几乎每一版更新，车道线和无保护左转，都是更新日志的第一条。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0495d4d6b37869a27b1abb40423df11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>为了更准确高效应对车道线，特斯拉这次「编」了一套「属于车道的语言」。其中包括车道级别的地理几何学和拓扑几何学、车道导航、公交车道计算、多乘员车辆车道计算等等。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5e8f91a38610e5c5e23fe68081b8660\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>最终这套「车道的语言」，可以在小于 10 毫秒的延迟内，思考超过 7500 万个可能影响车辆决策的因素——而且 FSD 硬件「学会」这套语言的代价（功耗），还不足 8W。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5e8aa95ee1c66859b5906c6ca135d4e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>四、四十年后，开始圆梦？</b></p><p>写到这里，我真的很头疼。</p><p>一方面是我们大部分人，都不是这届 AI Day 的对象——马斯克眼里只有招聘。另一方面，是现在一家汽车公司的发布会，对知识面要求实在太高了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939520f801acf9535d7055a615bf4a47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>还是说回马斯克吧，40 年前的他，还是个每天会看 10 个小时科幻小说的小孩子，沉醉于《银河系漫游指南》、《基地》、《严厉的月亮》等等。</p><p>但正是这些科幻小说，培养了马斯克冰冷却又宏大的事业观。他会跟你说人类社会生产力的效率可以扩大到无限，他会跟你说人口是维系文明的最重要因素。</p><p>所以，当我们把 52 岁的马斯克和 12 岁的马斯克放在一起，你会发现他俩依然在本质上是同一个人。</p><p>也正因如此，你看到他如今几乎涉猎了科幻小说所有最热门题材的商业帝国，才会觉得「哦，那很正常」。</p><p>希望明年我们能看到更接近现实的马斯克童梦吧。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1574414115752","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉AI Day 2022全解读：能走会动的Tesla Bot，DOJO超算明年量产、还有FSD新进展</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉AI Day 2022全解读：能走会动的Tesla Bot，DOJO超算明年量产、还有FSD新进展\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-01 17:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HRr8_Og1Y2oBBmouv0E1BA><strong>电动星球News</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>几个小时前，特斯拉正式举办了 2022 AI Day，一场全球汽车、人工智能、信息科技行业翘首以待足足 13 个月的发布会。严格意义上 AI Day 不像是「发布会」，而是「交流会」——马斯克本人也在推特上说，「此活动旨在招聘 AI 和机器人工程师，因此技术含量很高」——换句话说，这是马斯克的高山流水，为特斯拉的锺子期而开。不过这并不妨碍我们以比较轻松的视角，记录下这场科技狂欢。因为特斯拉团队几乎...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HRr8_Og1Y2oBBmouv0E1BA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8803475646fc32fd19f6657d5112fe","relate_stocks":{"BK4511":"特斯拉概念","FSD":"First Trust High Income Long/Sho","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HRr8_Og1Y2oBBmouv0E1BA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150155136","content_text":"几个小时前，特斯拉正式举办了 2022 AI Day，一场全球汽车、人工智能、信息科技行业翘首以待足足 13 个月的发布会。严格意义上 AI Day 不像是「发布会」，而是「交流会」——马斯克本人也在推特上说，「此活动旨在招聘 AI 和机器人工程师，因此技术含量很高」——换句话说，这是马斯克的高山流水，为特斯拉的锺子期而开。不过这并不妨碍我们以比较轻松的视角，记录下这场科技狂欢。因为特斯拉团队几乎 100% 实现了去年的承诺，在本届 AI Day 上带来了以下技术成果：不再需要群演的真·Tesla Bot 机器人原型机；不再停留在 PPT 的 DOJO POD 人工智能超级计算机；FSD 技术新进展，等等。当然，即使我们会尽力写得简单点，今天的文章依然会相对硬核。趁着国庆假期，建议大家可以慢慢看，下面马上开始。一、Tesla Bot 原型机Optimus 它来了！13 个月前还需要群演的 Tesla Bot，今天正式以原型机的形式出现——原型意思是它还没穿衣服（外壳）。原型机的样子比 PPT 里面明显更粗放，线束、促动器等零件堆砌略显凌乱。但好消息是，Tesla Bot 原型机已经可以走路、打招呼，双手可以完整举过头顶。在特斯拉的演示视频里，Optimus 已经可以做一些简单的工作，比如搬运箱子、浇花等等。但更重要的可能是这个画面：Optimus 眼中的世界，通过纯视觉发现并分析周边的一切，然后识别出自己的任务对象。事实上 Optimus 不是不能装上外壳，但出于工程原因，带外壳版本截止到发布会当天还不能自如地走路（原因后面再解释），只能简单挥舞一下手臂。装上外壳之后我们发现，更接近量产版的 Optimus，变得更胖了——现在它重 73 公斤，比去年 PPT 版「增重」超过 20%，整个「人」圆了一大圈。更接近量产，也意味着 Optimus 更高阶的参数也可以公布了：100W 静坐功耗、500W 快步走功耗、超过 200 档的关节自由度，光手部自由度就有 27 档。另外，Optimus 的大脑由单块 FSD Chip 组成，意味着算力应该是 HW3.0 的一半（72TOPS）；电池则是 52V 电压、2.3kWh 容量、内置电子电气元件的一体单元。说完数字，是时候聊聊 Optimus 的研发逻辑了。1. 汽车化马斯克说过「当你能解决自动驾驶，你就能解决现实世界中的人工智能」。这句话点破了特斯拉研发 Optimus 的方法论：大量借鉴汽车研发经验。比如借鉴汽车碰撞模拟软件，为 Optimus 编写「跌倒测试」软件。再比如利用汽车大规模零件的生产经验，为 Optimus 挑选尽可能保证成本+效率的原材料。「我们不会用碳纤维、钛合金这样的原材料。因为它们虽然很优秀，但像肩膀这样的易损部位，制造和维修成本都太贵了」。除此以外，制造 Optimus 的中心思想，也基本和智能汽车相当：减少线束长度、计算和电子控制单元中心化，等等。2. 仿生学既然是类人机器人 humanoid，设计自然要借鉴人类仿生学。特斯拉用了几个例子解释 Optimus 的仿生学，首先是膝关节。特斯拉表示 Optimus 的关节希望尽量复刻生物学上的「非线性」逻辑，也就是贴合膝关节直立到完全弯曲时的受力曲线。为此，Optimus 的膝关节使用了类似于平面四杆机构的设计，最终发力效果会更接近人类。紧接着，我们创造人类文明的双手，才是 Optimus 类人之路更大的 boss。Optimus 光手掌区域就用了 6 个促动器，具有 11 档的自由度。拥有自适应的抓握角度、20 磅（9 公斤）负荷、工具使用能力、小物件精准抓握能力等等。此外，Optimus 的手掌用的是「non-backdrivable」无法反向驱动的指尖促动器。学术界的看法是，这样的促动器可以提升在「开放环境」下的性能。最后是让 Optimus 学着像人类一样走路——这里用到的仿生学设计叫做「运动重心控制」。为什么有外壳的  Optimus 还不会走？其中一个原因就是重量变了，运动重心控制算法需要重新调试。事实上，Optimus 不仅要做到会走路，还要做到别摔倒。所以它不仅需要控制走路的重心，还要稳住受到外力（比如推搡）时的随机动态重心。训练 FSD 用到的神经网络和在线仿真模拟，这次在 Optimus 身上大显身手。路径规划、视觉融合、视觉导航等等熟悉的名词都被「灌输」到 Optimus 脑子里。这样的努力下，Optimus 今年 4 月迈出了它的第一步；7 月份解锁了骨盆活动；8 月走路时可以摆手臂了——发布会前几周，实现了脚趾离地的类人行走动作。3. 「肌肉」我们通过结缔组织包裹着的肌肉完成运动，机器人的「肌肉」则叫做促动器 actuator。如上图所示，橙色部分均为 Optimus 的促动器，这些促动器也都是特斯拉完全自研的。特斯拉为  Optimus 从力度大小的角度，设计了 6 种各自独特的促动器——这其实是很小的数字，业界平均是 20-30，甚至 50 种，目的是覆盖尽可能多的人类活动细节。为什么特斯拉的促动器种类这么少？原因还是 FSD 体系。特斯拉举了 28 种人类常见活动，比如抬举手臂、弯曲右膝等。通过分析这些活动反馈的云数据，找出各类运动的相对共同点，然后就可以尽量减少专门设计促动器的种类。虽然只是轻描淡写的一张 PPT，但我认为促动器从 50 种减少到 6 种，意义实际上远大于借鉴特斯拉电机经验的促动器本体——因为它代表着数据为王的新工业时代。不过促动器种类大幅度减少，也意味着 Optimus 前期的实际效果可能会没有那么「类人」，当然还是得等最终交付了。最后来说一个数字：2 万美元（约 14 万元）。这笔钱买不到半台 Model 3，但却是马斯克口中 Optimus 的目标售价。「它会彻底改变人类社会的效率，就像无人交通可以彻底改变运输效率」。二、DOJO 的终极形态？本来发布会的第二部分是 FSD，但那部分过于硬核，我决定先让大家看点激动人心的数字。去年 DOJO 惊艳全世界，但遗憾的是有太多细节未公布。D1 芯片是怎么组成 EXA POD 超算系统的？理论性能爆炸，能代表实际应用吗？这部分，特斯拉举了大量的数据，证明自己已经是计算领域的新巨头。首先是散热。先别发问号，超算平台的散热，一直是衡量超算制造者系统工程能力的重要维度。比如谷歌、华为、英伟达在公布自家方案的时候，都会花大篇幅讲散热。DOJO POD 的散热可以用两个词概括：高集成度、高自研率。特斯拉在 DOJO POD 上使用了全自研的 VRM（电压调节模组），单个 VRM 模组可以在不足 25 美分硬币面积的电路上，提供超过 1000A 的电流。高集成度带来的问题，是热膨胀系数 CTE。DOJO 堪称极限的体积集成率和发热，意味着 CTE 稍微失控，都会对系统结构造成巨大破坏（也就是会撑爆）。为此，这套自研 VRM 在过去两年内迭代了 14 个版本，最终才完全符合特斯拉对 CTE 指标的要求。目前 DOJO POD 已经进入负载测试阶段——单机柜 2.2MW 的负载，相当于 6 台 Model Y 双电机全力输出。解决了散热，才有资格说集成度。一个 DOJO POD 机柜由两层计算托盘和存储系统组成。每一层托盘都有 6 个 D1 Tile 计算「瓦片」——两层 12 片 组成的一个机柜，就可以提供 108PFLOPS 算力的深度学习性能。对了，DOJO POD 的供电模组也是 52V 电压的，Optimus 母亲实锤了。每层托盘都连接着超高速存储系统：640GB 运行内存可以提供超过 18TB 每秒的运算带宽，另外还有超过 1TB 每秒的网络交换。为了适配训练软件以及运营/维护，每个托盘还配备了专属的管理计算中心。最终，可以提供1.1E 算力、13TB 运存、1.3TB 缓存的 EXA POD，将于 2023 年 Q1，正式量产——这也是今天发布会唯一一个有确定日期的特斯拉产品。意大利炮有了，能不能轰下县城？特斯拉表示，配合专属的编译器，DOJO 的训练延迟，最低可以做到同等规模 GPU 的1/50！最终，特斯拉的目标是到 2023 年 Q1 量产时，DOJO 可以实现相比英伟达 A100，最高 4.4 倍的单芯片训练速度——甚至能耗和成本都更低。三、FSD 的新进化文章来到这里，大家的手指应该已经划了很多次屏幕。这也说明，看到这里依然兴致勃勃的你，一定是特斯拉老粉——那就聊点更「无聊」、更硬核的吧。篇幅有限，本届 AI Day 关于 FSD 的进展，我们只聊三个点：Occupancy Network、Training Optimization、Lanes。1. Occupancy Network先聊一个概念：矢量图。做设计的朋友一定很熟悉，这是一种精度（分辨率）可以做到无限，但占用存储空间很小的数字绘图。Occupancy Network，就是将 3D 向量数据绘制成矢量图的、 2019 年开始兴起的一种三维重建表达方法。有意思的是，特斯拉用了最 Occupancy Network 的方式，表达他们对 Occupancy Network 的应用：网格（方块）化的 3D 模拟。其实 FSD 眼中的世界并不是这样 Minecraft 化的，但 Occupancy Network 的本质特征，就是用「决策边界」描绘「物体边缘」。尽管 Occupancy Network 效率很高，但实际训练规模依然足够可观。目前特斯拉公布的数据是超过14.4 亿帧视频数据，需要超过10 万个 GPU 训练小时，实际视频缓存超过30PB——而且全程 90℃ 满负载。二、因此，Training Optimization 训练优化尤为重要。去年 Andrej 公布了特斯拉的千人 in-house 标注团队，今年特斯拉的重点，则在于优化自动标注流程。大概总结一下就是，优化过后，训练时视频帧选取会更智能，同时大幅度减少选取的视频帧数量——可以提高 30% 的训练速度。另外视频模型训练时 smol 异步库文件体积可以缩小 11%，所需的读取次数足足缩小到 1/4...最终这套优化流程让特斯拉的 Occupancy Network 训练效率提升了 2.3 倍。3. 最后聊聊车道线 Lanes。从 FSD Beta 10.12 开始，几乎每一版更新，车道线和无保护左转，都是更新日志的第一条。为了更准确高效应对车道线，特斯拉这次「编」了一套「属于车道的语言」。其中包括车道级别的地理几何学和拓扑几何学、车道导航、公交车道计算、多乘员车辆车道计算等等。最终这套「车道的语言」，可以在小于 10 毫秒的延迟内，思考超过 7500 万个可能影响车辆决策的因素——而且 FSD 硬件「学会」这套语言的代价（功耗），还不足 8W。四、四十年后，开始圆梦？写到这里，我真的很头疼。一方面是我们大部分人，都不是这届 AI Day 的对象——马斯克眼里只有招聘。另一方面，是现在一家汽车公司的发布会，对知识面要求实在太高了。还是说回马斯克吧，40 年前的他，还是个每天会看 10 个小时科幻小说的小孩子，沉醉于《银河系漫游指南》、《基地》、《严厉的月亮》等等。但正是这些科幻小说，培养了马斯克冰冷却又宏大的事业观。他会跟你说人类社会生产力的效率可以扩大到无限，他会跟你说人口是维系文明的最重要因素。所以，当我们把 52 岁的马斯克和 12 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Jr，192","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2022年1月17日（下周一），因马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天。</p><p>港股、A股、英股、澳大利亚和新加坡股市均照常交易。</p><p><b>【背景简介】</b></p><p>马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King, Jr，1929年1月15日—1968年4月4日），非裔美国人，美国牧师、社会活动家、黑人民权运动领袖。每年1月的第三个星期一，是美国联邦法定假日——马丁·路德·金纪念日。这是美国三个纪念个人的法定假日之一，另外两个是“哥伦布日”，和纪念前总统亚伯拉罕·林肯和乔治·华盛顿的“总统节”。</p><p>美国学校、政府和联邦机构在这一天都不开放。星期一会有追思仪式及纪念仪式。而在此之前的星期日，所有地区的牧师都会进行特殊布道，提醒每个人缅怀马丁·路德·金追求和平的一生。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：1月17日马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天</title>\n<style 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13:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2022年1月17日（下周一），因马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天。</p><p>港股、A股、英股、澳大利亚和新加坡股市均照常交易。</p><p><b>【背景简介】</b></p><p>马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King, Jr，1929年1月15日—1968年4月4日），非裔美国人，美国牧师、社会活动家、黑人民权运动领袖。每年1月的第三个星期一，是美国联邦法定假日——马丁·路德·金纪念日。这是美国三个纪念个人的法定假日之一，另外两个是“哥伦布日”，和纪念前总统亚伯拉罕·林肯和乔治·华盛顿的“总统节”。</p><p>美国学校、政府和联邦机构在这一天都不开放。星期一会有追思仪式及纪念仪式。而在此之前的星期日，所有地区的牧师都会进行特殊布道，提醒每个人缅怀马丁·路德·金追求和平的一生。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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&nbsp;</a>","text":"$爱彼迎(ABNB)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ee23300dbe396ca27a745aafa38474a","width":"1080","height":"2780"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966552311","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913711477,"gmtCreate":1664070617199,"gmtModify":1676537385573,"author":{"id":"4088247795049920","authorId":"4088247795049920","name":"Yap Wai Hong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7710b70b68b33532687ac65fc65f96d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$[得意]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/970f4753d44ca3db2eea84a63a1721e2","width":"1080","height":"2865"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913711477","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062694734,"gmtCreate":1652054912028,"gmtModify":1676535019634,"author":{"id":"4088247795049920","authorId":"4088247795049920","name":"Yap Wai Hong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7710b70b68b33532687ac65fc65f96d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Business Insider: Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky, who recently announced employees can work from home forever, calls the office an 'anachronistic form' and 'from a pre-digital age'.https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-office-anachronistic-from-pre-digital-age-2022-5","listText":"Business Insider: Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky, who recently announced employees can work from home forever, calls the office an 'anachronistic form' and 'from a pre-digital age'.https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-office-anachronistic-from-pre-digital-age-2022-5","text":"Business Insider: Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky, who recently announced employees can work from home forever, calls the office an 'anachronistic form' and 'from a pre-digital age'.https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-office-anachronistic-from-pre-digital-age-2022-5","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062694734","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033351136,"gmtCreate":1646196086200,"gmtModify":1676534102829,"author":{"id":"4088247795049920","authorId":"4088247795049920","name":"Yap Wai Hong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7710b70b68b33532687ac65fc65f96d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watch it in the long run","listText":"Watch it in the long run","text":"Watch it in the long run","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033351136","repostId":"1111400762","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1111400762","pubTimestamp":1646104232,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111400762?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-01 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Do Not Ignore These Red Flags With Palantir Technologies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111400762","media":"investorplace","summary":"Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) has struggled in 2022 thus far, especially when considering the last two turbul","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) has struggled in 2022 thus far, especially when considering the last two turbulent years its had. PLTR stock opened at $10 when it came public in 2020 and now trades for just a dollar more and change. It did go as high as $35 and was taken by a Reddit storm in 2021, but that did not last long.</p><p>The stock is down 51% over the past year and down 17% in the past few weeks since reporting its fourth-quarter results. It is hitting new lows and is inching closer to a single digit.</p><p>The company has been secretive about its clients and the work it does. It has several government clients and is consistently growing its commercial client base. But it is still reporting disappointing numbers.</p><p>So, are the shares worth your money? Personally, I think not. Let’s dig into why PLTR stock is a risk to avoid at all costs.</p><h2>Red Flags to Watch Out For</h2><p>It looks like Wall Street is tired of waiting for Palantir to make big moves and show a profit. The company has been in existence for long enough to report a profit and it’s shown its products are useful by bagging multiple government contracts, but the numbers are not impressive. On top of that, competition is rising and PLTR stock valuation is a concern.</p><p>While the company is trying to diversify sales away from government agencies, it has invested millions in special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), generating significant revenue. The commercial revenue is not growing at the same pace as government revenue while at the same time seeing a deceleration in government-generated revenue, which will likely impact the bottom line.</p><p>The company added only $8 million in new government revenue in 2021, compared to an addition of $77 million in 2020. Additionally, it added zero new government customers since 2020. Revenue growth declined from a 34% growth in Q3 to 26% in Q4. This shows that the business is slowing down and the costs are rising, which leaves more room for PLTR stock to fall. Its forward guidance is not impressive either.</p><h2>Ark Investment Is Getting Rid of PLTR Stock</h2><p>Interestingly, Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management dumped PLTR shares after disappointing results. The investment management firm sold 11 million shares worth $123 million. Ark Invest had about 25 million shares in Palantir before this trade.</p><p>Wall Street analysts are also downgrading PLTR stock. Citi analyst Tyler Radke has reduced the price target to $10. Further, RBC Analyst Rishi Jaluria also lowered the price target to $9 with an Underperform rating on the shares after the mixed Q4 results.</p><h2>The Bottom Line on PLTR Stock</h2><p>I do not think PLTR stock will rebound anytime soon. We may see another low before it starts to rise. Macroeconomic factors are certainly playing a role in the stock’s downfall but that’s giving PLTR stock too much credit. I do not see the extended selloff ending in the near term. Palantir will draw investors’ attention in the future but now is not the time. It will have to improve its profitability to remain at the top of its game.</p><p>The business may have an impressive list of clients, but that simply will not make the business good. Palantir will have to show its true strength and potential in the fundamentals. Until the company turns profitable, it could continue to lose the trust and interest of investors.</p><p>There is a lot to love and hate about PLTR stock, but now is not the time to bet your money on it.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Do Not Ignore These Red Flags With Palantir Technologies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDo Not Ignore These Red Flags With Palantir Technologies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-01 11:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/do-not-ignore-these-red-flags-with-pltr-stock/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) has struggled in 2022 thus far, especially when considering the last two turbulent years its had. PLTR stock opened at $10 when it came public in 2020 and now trades for just a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/do-not-ignore-these-red-flags-with-pltr-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/do-not-ignore-these-red-flags-with-pltr-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111400762","content_text":"Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) has struggled in 2022 thus far, especially when considering the last two turbulent years its had. PLTR stock opened at $10 when it came public in 2020 and now trades for just a dollar more and change. It did go as high as $35 and was taken by a Reddit storm in 2021, but that did not last long.The stock is down 51% over the past year and down 17% in the past few weeks since reporting its fourth-quarter results. It is hitting new lows and is inching closer to a single digit.The company has been secretive about its clients and the work it does. It has several government clients and is consistently growing its commercial client base. But it is still reporting disappointing numbers.So, are the shares worth your money? Personally, I think not. Let’s dig into why PLTR stock is a risk to avoid at all costs.Red Flags to Watch Out ForIt looks like Wall Street is tired of waiting for Palantir to make big moves and show a profit. The company has been in existence for long enough to report a profit and it’s shown its products are useful by bagging multiple government contracts, but the numbers are not impressive. On top of that, competition is rising and PLTR stock valuation is a concern.While the company is trying to diversify sales away from government agencies, it has invested millions in special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), generating significant revenue. The commercial revenue is not growing at the same pace as government revenue while at the same time seeing a deceleration in government-generated revenue, which will likely impact the bottom line.The company added only $8 million in new government revenue in 2021, compared to an addition of $77 million in 2020. Additionally, it added zero new government customers since 2020. Revenue growth declined from a 34% growth in Q3 to 26% in Q4. This shows that the business is slowing down and the costs are rising, which leaves more room for PLTR stock to fall. Its forward guidance is not impressive either.Ark Investment Is Getting Rid of PLTR StockInterestingly, Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management dumped PLTR shares after disappointing results. The investment management firm sold 11 million shares worth $123 million. Ark Invest had about 25 million shares in Palantir before this trade.Wall Street analysts are also downgrading PLTR stock. Citi analyst Tyler Radke has reduced the price target to $10. Further, RBC Analyst Rishi Jaluria also lowered the price target to $9 with an Underperform rating on the shares after the mixed Q4 results.The Bottom Line on PLTR StockI do not think PLTR stock will rebound anytime soon. We may see another low before it starts to rise. Macroeconomic factors are certainly playing a role in the stock’s downfall but that’s giving PLTR stock too much credit. I do not see the extended selloff ending in the near term. Palantir will draw investors’ attention in the future but now is not the time. It will have to improve its profitability to remain at the top of its game.The business may have an impressive list of clients, but that simply will not make the business good. Palantir will have to show its true strength and potential in the fundamentals. Until the company turns profitable, it could continue to lose the trust and interest of investors.There is a lot to love and hate about PLTR stock, but now is not the time to bet your money on it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007287285,"gmtCreate":1642906591359,"gmtModify":1676533756671,"author":{"id":"4088247795049920","authorId":"4088247795049920","name":"Yap Wai Hong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7710b70b68b33532687ac65fc65f96d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"long term hold","listText":"long term hold","text":"long term hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007287285","repostId":"1181967997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181967997","pubTimestamp":1642847696,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181967997?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-22 18:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"奈飞罕见暴跌，美股科技股吓崩了，市场在担心什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181967997","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年的财报季可能不太好过。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月21日的美股市场，奈飞重挫21%，科技股普跌，纳斯达克指数跌超2.7%，一月份跌幅已达12%！</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d3ef00c045df5d553b33c23b78adb2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>奈飞数百亿市值的蒸发固然让市场感到恐惧，但是更投资者担忧的是，这或许只是一个开始。</p><p>先是奈飞用近十年来的最大跌幅告诉市场，今年的财报季可能不太好过。</p><p>资产管理公司Abrdn的投资总监Tim Skiendzielewski表示，在市场经过短期抛售刚刚显露出复苏迹象之时，奈飞引领的财报季开局再度打击了投资者信心。</p><p>再是互动健身平台Peloton同样重击了投资者信心。</p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及，据CNBC报道，周四有内部文件称Peloton将暂停生产自行车和跑步机。消息公布后，当天Peloton股价重挫24%。虽然后来由于公司回应此为不实消息之后，周五股价有所反弹，但是也改变不了Peloton本周累计下跌14%，已经低于其IPO发行价的事实。</p><p><b>一家是全球最大的视频流媒体平台，一家是被称为“健身届苹果”的在线健身平台，看似风马牛不相及的两家公司，却“齐心协力”引发了投资者的极度担忧。</b></p><p>而且下周即将公布季度财报的IBM、微软和英特尔也被放在了同样的<b>“危险区”</b>。</p><p>“回归正常生活”打压科技公司前景</p><p>疫情在之前是如何捧红“居家概念”的，现在就会如何舍弃它。</p><p>虽然奥密克戎浪潮在很多欧美国家仍未消退，但是外界对于这个新毒株的恐惧已经减退很多。</p><p>1月19日，英国首相约翰逊宣布，英国即将结束自12月起实行的“Plan B”计划，取消包括口罩强制令、在家工作和疫苗通行证在内的所有防疫措施，或将于下周四生效。</p><p>1月20日，《华尔街日报》援引美国卫生官员和流行病专家称，美国部分地区的新冠疫情正显示出放缓的迹象，比如东北地区的新冠住院人数开始出现下降。</p><p>同样在1月20日，拜登政府的首席医学顾问福奇也表示“乐观”。他表示至少在短期内，一个人再次感染奥密克戎的概率很低。因为美国最早出现奥密克戎感染的地方，病例数量已经急剧下降。</p><p>数据证明，美国近7天平均每天新增病例约75万例，已经比前一周下降5%。</p><p><b>所以种种迹象均显露出了这样的可能——之前的正常生活可能要回来了。</b></p><p>居家概念“跌落神坛”</p><p>在“正常”的生活中，大家无需花大量时间居家生活和办公，户外活动时间会大大增加，消费者对于电子产品的需求也会有所下降。</p><p><b>而这些居家需求的下降和科技板块的众多分支一一对应。</b></p><p>这就能解释为什么奈飞预计今年一季度新增用户数暴跌，Peloton这种居家健身平台会在三个月跌超70%，以及机构预计PC等电子消费产品销量可能会放缓。</p><p>周四，资产管理公司Piper Sandler的分析师将对AMD的评级从“买入”下调至“持有”，这是基于未来计算机销量的趋势。</p><p>虽然这些科技公司都在努力想要吸引大家的注意力，比如奈飞就在上个季度发布了157部电影、新剧集和现有剧集的新季，比上年同期发布的原创内容数量增加了20%。</p><p>其中不乏《红色通缉令》(Red Notice)和《不要抬头》(Don&#39;t Look Up)等多个爆品，但是这还是不足以吸引百万新增用户，也就不足以满足投资者的期望。</p><p>“激进收水”步步临近</p><p>面对美国国内屡破历史新高的通胀水平，以及创下历史地位的失业率，美联储必须开始回收之前释放的流动性。</p><p>在这个背景之下，全球资产“定价之锚”十年期美债收益也随即飙升，依赖未来现金流的科技股更加岌岌可危。</p><p>一旦前景不明朗，投资者很可能想要“落袋为安”，高估值科技股也就成为被抛售的首选。</p><p><b>所以，基本面和资金面可能带来的双重打击，才是市场最担心的地方。</b></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>奈飞罕见暴跌，美股科技股吓崩了，市场在担心什么？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n奈飞罕见暴跌，美股科技股吓崩了，市场在担心什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-22 18:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650411><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1月21日的美股市场，奈飞重挫21%，科技股普跌，纳斯达克指数跌超2.7%，一月份跌幅已达12%！奈飞数百亿市值的蒸发固然让市场感到恐惧，但是更投资者担忧的是，这或许只是一个开始。先是奈飞用近十年来的最大跌幅告诉市场，今年的财报季可能不太好过。资产管理公司Abrdn的投资总监Tim Skiendzielewski表示，在市场经过短期抛售刚刚显露出复苏迹象之时，奈飞引领的财报季开局再度打击了投资者...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650411\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8de43451c68f57a0fdb81f66644722a","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650411","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1181967997","content_text":"1月21日的美股市场，奈飞重挫21%，科技股普跌，纳斯达克指数跌超2.7%，一月份跌幅已达12%！奈飞数百亿市值的蒸发固然让市场感到恐惧，但是更投资者担忧的是，这或许只是一个开始。先是奈飞用近十年来的最大跌幅告诉市场，今年的财报季可能不太好过。资产管理公司Abrdn的投资总监Tim Skiendzielewski表示，在市场经过短期抛售刚刚显露出复苏迹象之时，奈飞引领的财报季开局再度打击了投资者信心。再是互动健身平台Peloton同样重击了投资者信心。华尔街见闻此前提及，据CNBC报道，周四有内部文件称Peloton将暂停生产自行车和跑步机。消息公布后，当天Peloton股价重挫24%。虽然后来由于公司回应此为不实消息之后，周五股价有所反弹，但是也改变不了Peloton本周累计下跌14%，已经低于其IPO发行价的事实。一家是全球最大的视频流媒体平台，一家是被称为“健身届苹果”的在线健身平台，看似风马牛不相及的两家公司，却“齐心协力”引发了投资者的极度担忧。而且下周即将公布季度财报的IBM、微软和英特尔也被放在了同样的“危险区”。“回归正常生活”打压科技公司前景疫情在之前是如何捧红“居家概念”的，现在就会如何舍弃它。虽然奥密克戎浪潮在很多欧美国家仍未消退，但是外界对于这个新毒株的恐惧已经减退很多。1月19日，英国首相约翰逊宣布，英国即将结束自12月起实行的“Plan B”计划，取消包括口罩强制令、在家工作和疫苗通行证在内的所有防疫措施，或将于下周四生效。1月20日，《华尔街日报》援引美国卫生官员和流行病专家称，美国部分地区的新冠疫情正显示出放缓的迹象，比如东北地区的新冠住院人数开始出现下降。同样在1月20日，拜登政府的首席医学顾问福奇也表示“乐观”。他表示至少在短期内，一个人再次感染奥密克戎的概率很低。因为美国最早出现奥密克戎感染的地方，病例数量已经急剧下降。数据证明，美国近7天平均每天新增病例约75万例，已经比前一周下降5%。所以种种迹象均显露出了这样的可能——之前的正常生活可能要回来了。居家概念“跌落神坛”在“正常”的生活中，大家无需花大量时间居家生活和办公，户外活动时间会大大增加，消费者对于电子产品的需求也会有所下降。而这些居家需求的下降和科技板块的众多分支一一对应。这就能解释为什么奈飞预计今年一季度新增用户数暴跌，Peloton这种居家健身平台会在三个月跌超70%，以及机构预计PC等电子消费产品销量可能会放缓。周四，资产管理公司Piper Sandler的分析师将对AMD的评级从“买入”下调至“持有”，这是基于未来计算机销量的趋势。虽然这些科技公司都在努力想要吸引大家的注意力，比如奈飞就在上个季度发布了157部电影、新剧集和现有剧集的新季，比上年同期发布的原创内容数量增加了20%。其中不乏《红色通缉令》(Red Notice)和《不要抬头》(Don't Look Up)等多个爆品，但是这还是不足以吸引百万新增用户，也就不足以满足投资者的期望。“激进收水”步步临近面对美国国内屡破历史新高的通胀水平，以及创下历史地位的失业率，美联储必须开始回收之前释放的流动性。在这个背景之下，全球资产“定价之锚”十年期美债收益也随即飙升，依赖未来现金流的科技股更加岌岌可危。一旦前景不明朗，投资者很可能想要“落袋为安”，高估值科技股也就成为被抛售的首选。所以，基本面和资金面可能带来的双重打击，才是市场最担心的地方。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257349989253312,"gmtCreate":1703863484275,"gmtModify":1703863488970,"author":{"id":"4088247795049920","authorId":"4088247795049920","name":"Yap Wai Hong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7710b70b68b33532687ac65fc65f96d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2024&nbsp; Beat the market","listText":"2024&nbsp; Beat the market","text":"2024 Beat the 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