业者高 personal page - To The Moon

业者高

业者高

No personal profile

3Follow

0Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2023-06-22

It's actually very promising whenever I read strong sell for Nio. Every time such news pop up, the price always spike. Thank you inadvance for the analysis. Please keep it coming so that the price will keep climbing.

NIO: Sell This Dead Cat Bounce

2023-04-28

$Zoom(ZM)$ Dilemma

2023-03-18

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ looking great

2023-03-18

another good read

@Capital_Insights:FDIC: 3 Figures to Why SVB Fail, More Risks in Banks & Markets?

2023-03-18

The explanation of the SVB collapse

@MillionaireTiger:When There is a Bank Run on SVB, Where does the Money Go?

2023-03-18

Very interesting

@StarLuck:Grab Holdings retires US$600 mil in 2026 debt with extra cash

2023-03-18

$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$

2022-11-16

💪🏼💪🏼

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4088331814097860","uuid":"4088331814097860","gmtCreate":1625231508069,"gmtModify":1689125242776,"name":"业者高","pinyin":"yzgyezhegao","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":3,"tweetSize":8,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.31","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.02","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.01%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.08","exceedPercentage":"60.98%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.54%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":190104255123464,"gmtCreate":1687437692286,"gmtModify":1687437697758,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's actually very promising whenever I read strong sell for Nio. Every time such news pop up, the price always spike. Thank you inadvance for the analysis. Please keep it coming so that the price will keep climbing.&nbsp;","listText":"It's actually very promising whenever I read strong sell for Nio. Every time such news pop up, the price always spike. Thank you inadvance for the analysis. Please keep it coming so that the price will keep climbing.&nbsp;","text":"It's actually very promising whenever I read strong sell for Nio. Every time such news pop up, the price always spike. Thank you inadvance for the analysis. Please keep it coming so that the price will keep climbing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190104255123464","repostId":"2345738161","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2345738161","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1687432620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2345738161?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 19:17","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"NIO: Sell This Dead Cat Bounce","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2345738161","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Investment thesisNIO (NYSE:NIO) was one of the hottest stocks during the EV frenzy of 2020-2021. The","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Investment thesis</h2><p>NIO (NYSE:NIO) was one of the hottest stocks during the EV frenzy of 2020-2021. The company&#39;s market cap was close to $100 billion and is now traded much cheaper. My analysis suggests the selloff was fair because the company is losing the competition to its local rivals, not to mention other automotive giants entering the Chinese EV market. Moreover, NIO is highly likely to miss the aggressive growth profile consensus estimates expected from the company. Therefore, the stock is a strong sell.</p><h2>Company information</h2><p>NIO is a Chinese electric vehicle [EV] manufacturer incorporated in 2014. The company is headquartered in Shanghai. NIO designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells its vehicles in the premium EV market.</p><p>The company&#39;s fiscal year ends on December 31 with a single reportable segment.</p><h2>Financials</h2><p>NIO went public in the U.S. in 2018. It means we have a relatively short horizon for financial analysis. Over the last five years, the company&#39;s sales have increased by about ten-fold, and the company now generates positive gross profit but looks far from a breakeven from the operating profit perspective.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ab3407bca2df1ff1e53abe2cfa8893\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p>The company reinvests a substantial 20% of sales to R&amp;D to improve its vehicles. SG&amp;A to revenue ratio also looks high, though it has improved significantly in recent years, meaning the company is striving to expand its operating margin as the business scales up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f64f338e36445eb56a2680e9933ec33\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>Looking at the latest quarterly dynamics, the company faces challenges because Q1 sales were flat while expenses snowballed. It means profitability metrics are shrinking, adding more uncertainty to the company&#39;s break-even timing. NIO&#39;s flat sales in Q1 are a huge red flag for me because the Chinese EV market grew 25% in Q1 2023 compared to the same period a year earlier. It means that NIO&#39;s difficulties are not due to the overall weakness and cannot be explained by cyclicality. Weakness in NIO&#39;s Q1 sales is highly likely related to the weak demand for the company&#39;s vehicles due to the unattractiveness of the company&#39;s offerings. This led to about $750 million operating loss for the quarter. It is crucial because the company is burning cash at a rapid pace. As you can see, the company&#39;s cash balance almost halved in just six quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091deb88d6aa252c31585a445c012242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>During Q1 of FY 2023, the company&#39;s cash balance decreased by about a billion dollars. If NIO sustains this cash burn rate, the company will need to raise financing already in FY 2024. This is a red flag for investors as well. The company will raise debt finance, adversely affecting profitability and decreasing shareholders&#39; wealth. Or, the company might issue more shares, which is also bad for investors whose stakes will be diluted. There are no good options for a company rapidly running out of cash. You can also see below that NIO&#39;s liquidity is rapidly melting and liquidity ratios are likely to fall below one in just a few quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97ffdd742a8adffa5d9d9695e3656d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>NIO stock underperformed the broad U.S. market this year with about a 3% decline in the stock price. Overall, the stock now trades about six times cheaper than January 2021 peaks. Seeking Alpha Quant assigned the stock a low &#34;D&#34; valuation grade, meaning NIO is not attractively valued. This is due to the company&#39;s high valuation ratios compared to the sector median.</p><p>I want to cross-check the multiples analysis with a discounted cash flow [DCF] approach. Due to substantial political and country risks, I use a high 15% WACC for the valuation of Chinese companies. I have revenue consensus estimates for the next decade, though I consider them too optimistic, with about 17% CAGR. Therefore, I will simulate a more conservative scenario as well. Consensus estimates also forecast that adjusted EPS will break even after FY 2025. Therefore, I expect a positive FCF margin starting only from FY 2026. I project that the FCF margin will expand by two percentage points yearly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b237d3982bcc784f2cc4bd14086d617\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p>As you can see, the company&#39;s fair business value is about $58 billion, meaning the stock is about four times undervalued. But 17% revenue CAGR is too optimistic. For example, according to statista.com, the Chinese EV market is expected to grow at a modest 6.4% CAGR over the next five years. To be not so pessimistic, I round up the revenue growth rate to 7% for my second scenario. Since the growth rate is more conservative for the second scenario, so are the FCF assumptions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd7d27eb00d2bf0074dfa05fe1990c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p>Based on more conservative assumptions, the stock now looks fairly valued with little upside potential. Overall, I believe the second scenario is more likely to unfold than the first one. In the &#34;Risks to consider&#34; section below, I explain why the company is unlikely to meet long-term consensus expectations.</p><h2>Risks to consider</h2><p>As we saw in my article&#39;s &#34;Valuation&#34; section, consensus estimates forecast very aggressive revenue growth. Consensus estimates project FY 2023 revenue at $9.25 billion, meaning about 30% growth compared to the prior year. The correlation between income and the number of deliveries is not 100%, but extreme dependence exists. Therefore, for my analysis, I expect the company to deliver 30% more EVs this year than in FY 2022. FY 2023 deliveries should be about 160,000 to meet the projected consensus revenue. During the first five months of 2023, NIO delivered about 44,000 vehicles, meaning about 116,000 have to be delivered during the remaining seven months of the year. In other words, between June and December of 2023, the company has to deliver about 16.5 thousand vehicles per month on average. In the below table, you can see two significant trends. First, the number of deliveries has declined since February and almost halved. Second, the company was never even close to 16.5 thousand deliveries this year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6231bc8482187baa159191a517f99601\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"234\"/></p><p>Compiled by the author</p><p>Therefore, the risk that the company will not be able to meet expected revenue growth is exceptionally high in the short- and long-term. If the company fails to achieve expected revenue this year, long-term earnings projections will likely be revised by analysts, which will directly adversely affect valuations.</p><p>The company faces intense competition from local EV rivals like Li Auto (LI) and the undisputed global EV leader Tesla (TSLA). We should also not forget other established giant automakers like Toyota (TM) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). In my opinion, the Chinese EV market looks like a&#34;red ocean&#34;, and NIO does not look like a shark in this massacre. Global automotive giants possess more resources to invest in innovation and ramp production. NIO is definitely in a weaker position than TSLA of VWAGY. But the company looks much weaker compared to its Chinese rival, LI. Below is the dynamic of NIO and Li Auto deliveries this year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fb23911ee3fdf87bbaa8b95d9830d95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"/></p><p>Compiled by the author</p><p>We could have blamed possible weakness in the Chinese EV market overall, but we see that Li Auto improved its deliveries sequentially every month this year. After June deliveries are announced, Li Auto will likely surpass its full FY 2022 in the number of vehicles delivered. On the contrary, NIO is very far from surpassing last year&#39;s deliveries. It is a huge red flag for me because the company is losing its market share in the domestic market, meaning NIO&#39;s vehicles will not be competitive outside China as well.</p><h2>Bottom line</h2><p>To conclude, NIO stock is a strong sell. The company is losing market share in the domestic market. If the company is not competitive at home, the chances for a successful global expansion are very close to zero. NIO is highly likely to underperform the ambitious 17% long-term revenue CAGR expected by consensus estimates. Moreover, the company is still burning cash, and the balance sheet looks like the company will need to raise substantial amounts next year. A recent rally might be a good chance to sell the stock because the future does not look bright for NIO.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Sell This Dead Cat Bounce</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Sell This Dead Cat Bounce\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-22 19:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4612901-nio-stock-losing-market-share-in-domestic-market-sell><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment thesisNIO (NYSE:NIO) was one of the hottest stocks during the EV frenzy of 2020-2021. The company's market cap was close to $100 billion and is now traded much cheaper. My analysis suggests...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4612901-nio-stock-losing-market-share-in-domestic-market-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4612901-nio-stock-losing-market-share-in-domestic-market-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2345738161","content_text":"Investment thesisNIO (NYSE:NIO) was one of the hottest stocks during the EV frenzy of 2020-2021. The company's market cap was close to $100 billion and is now traded much cheaper. My analysis suggests the selloff was fair because the company is losing the competition to its local rivals, not to mention other automotive giants entering the Chinese EV market. Moreover, NIO is highly likely to miss the aggressive growth profile consensus estimates expected from the company. Therefore, the stock is a strong sell.Company informationNIO is a Chinese electric vehicle [EV] manufacturer incorporated in 2014. The company is headquartered in Shanghai. NIO designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells its vehicles in the premium EV market.The company's fiscal year ends on December 31 with a single reportable segment.FinancialsNIO went public in the U.S. in 2018. It means we have a relatively short horizon for financial analysis. Over the last five years, the company's sales have increased by about ten-fold, and the company now generates positive gross profit but looks far from a breakeven from the operating profit perspective.Author's calculationsThe company reinvests a substantial 20% of sales to R&D to improve its vehicles. SG&A to revenue ratio also looks high, though it has improved significantly in recent years, meaning the company is striving to expand its operating margin as the business scales up.Data by YChartsLooking at the latest quarterly dynamics, the company faces challenges because Q1 sales were flat while expenses snowballed. It means profitability metrics are shrinking, adding more uncertainty to the company's break-even timing. NIO's flat sales in Q1 are a huge red flag for me because the Chinese EV market grew 25% in Q1 2023 compared to the same period a year earlier. It means that NIO's difficulties are not due to the overall weakness and cannot be explained by cyclicality. Weakness in NIO's Q1 sales is highly likely related to the weak demand for the company's vehicles due to the unattractiveness of the company's offerings. This led to about $750 million operating loss for the quarter. It is crucial because the company is burning cash at a rapid pace. As you can see, the company's cash balance almost halved in just six quarters.Seeking AlphaDuring Q1 of FY 2023, the company's cash balance decreased by about a billion dollars. If NIO sustains this cash burn rate, the company will need to raise financing already in FY 2024. This is a red flag for investors as well. The company will raise debt finance, adversely affecting profitability and decreasing shareholders' wealth. Or, the company might issue more shares, which is also bad for investors whose stakes will be diluted. There are no good options for a company rapidly running out of cash. You can also see below that NIO's liquidity is rapidly melting and liquidity ratios are likely to fall below one in just a few quarters.Author's calculationsValuationNIO stock underperformed the broad U.S. market this year with about a 3% decline in the stock price. Overall, the stock now trades about six times cheaper than January 2021 peaks. Seeking Alpha Quant assigned the stock a low \"D\" valuation grade, meaning NIO is not attractively valued. This is due to the company's high valuation ratios compared to the sector median.I want to cross-check the multiples analysis with a discounted cash flow [DCF] approach. Due to substantial political and country risks, I use a high 15% WACC for the valuation of Chinese companies. I have revenue consensus estimates for the next decade, though I consider them too optimistic, with about 17% CAGR. Therefore, I will simulate a more conservative scenario as well. Consensus estimates also forecast that adjusted EPS will break even after FY 2025. Therefore, I expect a positive FCF margin starting only from FY 2026. I project that the FCF margin will expand by two percentage points yearly.Author's calculationsAs you can see, the company's fair business value is about $58 billion, meaning the stock is about four times undervalued. But 17% revenue CAGR is too optimistic. For example, according to statista.com, the Chinese EV market is expected to grow at a modest 6.4% CAGR over the next five years. To be not so pessimistic, I round up the revenue growth rate to 7% for my second scenario. Since the growth rate is more conservative for the second scenario, so are the FCF assumptions.Author's calculationsBased on more conservative assumptions, the stock now looks fairly valued with little upside potential. Overall, I believe the second scenario is more likely to unfold than the first one. In the \"Risks to consider\" section below, I explain why the company is unlikely to meet long-term consensus expectations.Risks to considerAs we saw in my article's \"Valuation\" section, consensus estimates forecast very aggressive revenue growth. Consensus estimates project FY 2023 revenue at $9.25 billion, meaning about 30% growth compared to the prior year. The correlation between income and the number of deliveries is not 100%, but extreme dependence exists. Therefore, for my analysis, I expect the company to deliver 30% more EVs this year than in FY 2022. FY 2023 deliveries should be about 160,000 to meet the projected consensus revenue. During the first five months of 2023, NIO delivered about 44,000 vehicles, meaning about 116,000 have to be delivered during the remaining seven months of the year. In other words, between June and December of 2023, the company has to deliver about 16.5 thousand vehicles per month on average. In the below table, you can see two significant trends. First, the number of deliveries has declined since February and almost halved. Second, the company was never even close to 16.5 thousand deliveries this year.Compiled by the authorTherefore, the risk that the company will not be able to meet expected revenue growth is exceptionally high in the short- and long-term. If the company fails to achieve expected revenue this year, long-term earnings projections will likely be revised by analysts, which will directly adversely affect valuations.The company faces intense competition from local EV rivals like Li Auto (LI) and the undisputed global EV leader Tesla (TSLA). We should also not forget other established giant automakers like Toyota (TM) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). In my opinion, the Chinese EV market looks like a\"red ocean\", and NIO does not look like a shark in this massacre. Global automotive giants possess more resources to invest in innovation and ramp production. NIO is definitely in a weaker position than TSLA of VWAGY. But the company looks much weaker compared to its Chinese rival, LI. Below is the dynamic of NIO and Li Auto deliveries this year.Compiled by the authorWe could have blamed possible weakness in the Chinese EV market overall, but we see that Li Auto improved its deliveries sequentially every month this year. After June deliveries are announced, Li Auto will likely surpass its full FY 2022 in the number of vehicles delivered. On the contrary, NIO is very far from surpassing last year's deliveries. It is a huge red flag for me because the company is losing its market share in the domestic market, meaning NIO's vehicles will not be competitive outside China as well.Bottom lineTo conclude, NIO stock is a strong sell. The company is losing market share in the domestic market. If the company is not competitive at home, the chances for a successful global expansion are very close to zero. NIO is highly likely to underperform the ambitious 17% long-term revenue CAGR expected by consensus estimates. Moreover, the company is still burning cash, and the balance sheet looks like the company will need to raise substantial amounts next year. A recent rally might be a good chance to sell the stock because the future does not look bright for NIO.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4097900715273400","authorId":"4097900715273400","name":"Yonhuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4ab9f0ed4305d88e3767c39675cedf3","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4097900715273400","authorIdStr":"4097900715273400"},"content":"I think so too. i begin to welcome these trash talk from these financial guru/writers . Did he mentiones there was a slow down due to transition of products to NT2? Speakea much about their knowledge. Such strong headline.","text":"I think so too. i begin to welcome these trash talk from these financial guru/writers . Did he mentiones there was a slow down due to transition of products to NT2? Speakea much about their knowledge. Such strong headline.","html":"I think so too. i begin to welcome these trash talk from these financial guru/writers . Did he mentiones there was a slow down due to transition of products to NT2? Speakea much about their knowledge. Such strong headline."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947371511,"gmtCreate":1682611672934,"gmtModify":1682611678129,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$&nbsp;</a>Dilemma&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$&nbsp;</a>Dilemma&nbsp;","text":"$Zoom(ZM)$ Dilemma","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/087a129565afa17f010df6c636f76caa","width":"1179","height":"2316"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947371511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943975405,"gmtCreate":1679077525607,"gmtModify":1679077529047,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"another good read","listText":"another good read","text":"another good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943975405","repostId":"9949871320","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949871320,"gmtCreate":1678539284260,"gmtModify":1679034396199,"author":{"id":"3527667668165440","authorId":"3527667668165440","name":"Capital_Insights","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfdc66fff48bb2b9e2d328ac5eb33100","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668165440","authorIdStr":"3527667668165440"},"themes":[],"title":"FDIC: 3 Figures to Why SVB Fail, More Risks in Banks & Markets?","htmlText":"Keypoints1）The&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SIVB\">$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$</a> Incident2）3 Figures to Understand WHY3）SVB and Banks Future DestinyEditor's Notes: The market will fluctuate again, choose the right time to overweight US treasury bonds, increase cash positions, and increase high-quality anti-inflation stocks that can generate regular and predictable cash flows.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">Recommend&nbsp;to</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">&nbsp;Read:&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">After SIVB, SBNY, Who is Next, ZION, TFC, FRC, KEY or RF?</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949709815\" target=\"_blank\">How Global Banks &amp; Top Institutions Respo</a>","listText":"Keypoints1）The&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SIVB\">$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$</a> Incident2）3 Figures to Understand WHY3）SVB and Banks Future DestinyEditor's Notes: The market will fluctuate again, choose the right time to overweight US treasury bonds, increase cash positions, and increase high-quality anti-inflation stocks that can generate regular and predictable cash flows.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">Recommend&nbsp;to</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">&nbsp;Read:&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">After SIVB, SBNY, Who is Next, ZION, TFC, FRC, KEY or RF?</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949709815\" target=\"_blank\">How Global Banks &amp; Top Institutions Respo</a>","text":"Keypoints1）The $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ Incident2）3 Figures to Understand WHY3）SVB and Banks Future DestinyEditor's Notes: The market will fluctuate again, choose the right time to overweight US treasury bonds, increase cash positions, and increase high-quality anti-inflation stocks that can generate regular and predictable cash flows.Recommend to Read: After SIVB, SBNY, Who is Next, ZION, TFC, FRC, KEY or RF?How Global Banks & Top Institutions Respo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0336b2eb91a8de22e42017b2d79bf59b","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/97e1f574ab48fd1f1f4892c24ad6ffa9","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/351f8c93aab4be1c81dbc5a2210ab5aa","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949871320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943975564,"gmtCreate":1679077502859,"gmtModify":1679077506696,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The explanation of the SVB collapse&nbsp;","listText":"The explanation of the SVB collapse&nbsp;","text":"The explanation of the SVB collapse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943975564","repostId":"9949127849","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949127849,"gmtCreate":1678449006682,"gmtModify":1678449045739,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"When There is a Bank Run on SVB, Where does the Money Go?","htmlText":"Shares of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SIVB\">$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$</a> plunged 60% on Thursday, the biggest one-day drop on record.Another crypto bank Silvergate Capital&nbsp;gave&nbsp;another&nbsp;hit&nbsp;- shut down its banking operations, causing the S&amp;P 500 Banks Index to fall about 6% on Thursday.What&nbsp;happened&nbsp;on&nbsp;SVB?Technology Boom - Total Deposits SkyrocketSVB is Silicon Valley Bank, and like the name, it provides banking services to many startups in Silicon Valley. It also&nbsp;means many startups have their bank accounts in SVB, which is the capital that SVB relies on. The second half of 2020 has seen a global funding boom for technology companies, and the rapid growth in startups loans and venture capital funding has led to a huge amount of cash and","listText":"Shares of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SIVB\">$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$</a> plunged 60% on Thursday, the biggest one-day drop on record.Another crypto bank Silvergate Capital&nbsp;gave&nbsp;another&nbsp;hit&nbsp;- shut down its banking operations, causing the S&amp;P 500 Banks Index to fall about 6% on Thursday.What&nbsp;happened&nbsp;on&nbsp;SVB?Technology Boom - Total Deposits SkyrocketSVB is Silicon Valley Bank, and like the name, it provides banking services to many startups in Silicon Valley. It also&nbsp;means many startups have their bank accounts in SVB, which is the capital that SVB relies on. The second half of 2020 has seen a global funding boom for technology companies, and the rapid growth in startups loans and venture capital funding has led to a huge amount of cash and","text":"Shares of $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ plunged 60% on Thursday, the biggest one-day drop on record.Another crypto bank Silvergate Capital gave another hit - shut down its banking operations, causing the S&P 500 Banks Index to fall about 6% on Thursday.What happened on SVB?Technology Boom - Total Deposits SkyrocketSVB is Silicon Valley Bank, and like the name, it provides banking services to many startups in Silicon Valley. It also means many startups have their bank accounts in SVB, which is the capital that SVB relies on. The second half of 2020 has seen a global funding boom for technology companies, and the rapid growth in startups loans and venture capital funding has led to a huge amount of cash and","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c3b3586743bfa9995693d3a380099c4","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d0afb8552e4d779ca8a110f3ddcfe82","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b98a820699c71f4ce400fa77a516448","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949127849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943975209,"gmtCreate":1679077463401,"gmtModify":1679079655682,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Very interesting&nbsp;","text":"Very interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943975209","repostId":"9940764453","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9940764453,"gmtCreate":1678188706074,"gmtModify":1678189017546,"author":{"id":"4096861291958630","authorId":"4096861291958630","name":"StarLuck","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68dadbe13922423705b61d7955659ae4","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096861291958630","authorIdStr":"4096861291958630"},"themes":[],"title":"Grab Holdings retires US$600 mil in 2026 debt with extra cash","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Grab Holdings Ltd. on Monday said it prepaid US$600 million ($806.6 million) in debt ahead of a 2026 maturity, taking advantage of excess cash on its balance sheet. The Singapore-based ride-hailing and delivery company completed the transaction last week, bringing its debt under an outstanding term loan to US$517 million, down from the previous balance of US$1.117 billion. Grab also has about US$200 million in other bank debt. “Grab is taking advantage of our healthy cash position to reduce our gross debt balance and generate interest savings, given the macroeconomic environment,” said Chief Financial Officer Peter Oey. Grab in November bought back about US$750 million in debt - part of its US$2","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Grab Holdings Ltd. on Monday said it prepaid US$600 million ($806.6 million) in debt ahead of a 2026 maturity, taking advantage of excess cash on its balance sheet. The Singapore-based ride-hailing and delivery company completed the transaction last week, bringing its debt under an outstanding term loan to US$517 million, down from the previous balance of US$1.117 billion. Grab also has about US$200 million in other bank debt. “Grab is taking advantage of our healthy cash position to reduce our gross debt balance and generate interest savings, given the macroeconomic environment,” said Chief Financial Officer Peter Oey. Grab in November bought back about US$750 million in debt - part of its US$2","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ Grab Holdings Ltd. on Monday said it prepaid US$600 million ($806.6 million) in debt ahead of a 2026 maturity, taking advantage of excess cash on its balance sheet. The Singapore-based ride-hailing and delivery company completed the transaction last week, bringing its debt under an outstanding term loan to US$517 million, down from the previous balance of US$1.117 billion. Grab also has about US$200 million in other bank debt. “Grab is taking advantage of our healthy cash position to reduce our gross debt balance and generate interest savings, given the macroeconomic environment,” said Chief Financial Officer Peter Oey. Grab in November bought back about US$750 million in debt - part of its US$2","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de64c2b8ee393d8510e03cc44085a9e1","width":"1200","height":"801"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940764453","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943975665,"gmtCreate":1679077321958,"gmtModify":1679077364474,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> looking great","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> looking great","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ looking great","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d1660c6c72d016a711f635cbfa7c1a85","width":"1179","height":"2556"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943975665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943975827,"gmtCreate":1679077273869,"gmtModify":1679077323688,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dce96e9bedec6cc2a69720b73575c7b4","width":"1179","height":"2316"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943975827","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963394208,"gmtCreate":1668587182805,"gmtModify":1676538080568,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪🏼💪🏼","listText":"💪🏼💪🏼","text":"💪🏼💪🏼","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daf79869d2352d662926c2e0ad2a8405","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963394208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":190104255123464,"gmtCreate":1687437692286,"gmtModify":1687437697758,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's actually very promising whenever I read strong sell for Nio. Every time such news pop up, the price always spike. Thank you inadvance for the analysis. Please keep it coming so that the price will keep climbing.&nbsp;","listText":"It's actually very promising whenever I read strong sell for Nio. Every time such news pop up, the price always spike. Thank you inadvance for the analysis. Please keep it coming so that the price will keep climbing.&nbsp;","text":"It's actually very promising whenever I read strong sell for Nio. Every time such news pop up, the price always spike. Thank you inadvance for the analysis. Please keep it coming so that the price will keep climbing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190104255123464","repostId":"2345738161","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2345738161","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1687432620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2345738161?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 19:17","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"NIO: Sell This Dead Cat Bounce","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2345738161","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Investment thesisNIO (NYSE:NIO) was one of the hottest stocks during the EV frenzy of 2020-2021. The","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Investment thesis</h2><p>NIO (NYSE:NIO) was one of the hottest stocks during the EV frenzy of 2020-2021. The company&#39;s market cap was close to $100 billion and is now traded much cheaper. My analysis suggests the selloff was fair because the company is losing the competition to its local rivals, not to mention other automotive giants entering the Chinese EV market. Moreover, NIO is highly likely to miss the aggressive growth profile consensus estimates expected from the company. Therefore, the stock is a strong sell.</p><h2>Company information</h2><p>NIO is a Chinese electric vehicle [EV] manufacturer incorporated in 2014. The company is headquartered in Shanghai. NIO designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells its vehicles in the premium EV market.</p><p>The company&#39;s fiscal year ends on December 31 with a single reportable segment.</p><h2>Financials</h2><p>NIO went public in the U.S. in 2018. It means we have a relatively short horizon for financial analysis. Over the last five years, the company&#39;s sales have increased by about ten-fold, and the company now generates positive gross profit but looks far from a breakeven from the operating profit perspective.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3ab3407bca2df1ff1e53abe2cfa8893\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p>The company reinvests a substantial 20% of sales to R&amp;D to improve its vehicles. SG&amp;A to revenue ratio also looks high, though it has improved significantly in recent years, meaning the company is striving to expand its operating margin as the business scales up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f64f338e36445eb56a2680e9933ec33\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p>Looking at the latest quarterly dynamics, the company faces challenges because Q1 sales were flat while expenses snowballed. It means profitability metrics are shrinking, adding more uncertainty to the company&#39;s break-even timing. NIO&#39;s flat sales in Q1 are a huge red flag for me because the Chinese EV market grew 25% in Q1 2023 compared to the same period a year earlier. It means that NIO&#39;s difficulties are not due to the overall weakness and cannot be explained by cyclicality. Weakness in NIO&#39;s Q1 sales is highly likely related to the weak demand for the company&#39;s vehicles due to the unattractiveness of the company&#39;s offerings. This led to about $750 million operating loss for the quarter. It is crucial because the company is burning cash at a rapid pace. As you can see, the company&#39;s cash balance almost halved in just six quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091deb88d6aa252c31585a445c012242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"189\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>During Q1 of FY 2023, the company&#39;s cash balance decreased by about a billion dollars. If NIO sustains this cash burn rate, the company will need to raise financing already in FY 2024. This is a red flag for investors as well. The company will raise debt finance, adversely affecting profitability and decreasing shareholders&#39; wealth. Or, the company might issue more shares, which is also bad for investors whose stakes will be diluted. There are no good options for a company rapidly running out of cash. You can also see below that NIO&#39;s liquidity is rapidly melting and liquidity ratios are likely to fall below one in just a few quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97ffdd742a8adffa5d9d9695e3656d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>NIO stock underperformed the broad U.S. market this year with about a 3% decline in the stock price. Overall, the stock now trades about six times cheaper than January 2021 peaks. Seeking Alpha Quant assigned the stock a low &#34;D&#34; valuation grade, meaning NIO is not attractively valued. This is due to the company&#39;s high valuation ratios compared to the sector median.</p><p>I want to cross-check the multiples analysis with a discounted cash flow [DCF] approach. Due to substantial political and country risks, I use a high 15% WACC for the valuation of Chinese companies. I have revenue consensus estimates for the next decade, though I consider them too optimistic, with about 17% CAGR. Therefore, I will simulate a more conservative scenario as well. Consensus estimates also forecast that adjusted EPS will break even after FY 2025. Therefore, I expect a positive FCF margin starting only from FY 2026. I project that the FCF margin will expand by two percentage points yearly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b237d3982bcc784f2cc4bd14086d617\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p>As you can see, the company&#39;s fair business value is about $58 billion, meaning the stock is about four times undervalued. But 17% revenue CAGR is too optimistic. For example, according to statista.com, the Chinese EV market is expected to grow at a modest 6.4% CAGR over the next five years. To be not so pessimistic, I round up the revenue growth rate to 7% for my second scenario. Since the growth rate is more conservative for the second scenario, so are the FCF assumptions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd7d27eb00d2bf0074dfa05fe1990c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p>Based on more conservative assumptions, the stock now looks fairly valued with little upside potential. Overall, I believe the second scenario is more likely to unfold than the first one. In the &#34;Risks to consider&#34; section below, I explain why the company is unlikely to meet long-term consensus expectations.</p><h2>Risks to consider</h2><p>As we saw in my article&#39;s &#34;Valuation&#34; section, consensus estimates forecast very aggressive revenue growth. Consensus estimates project FY 2023 revenue at $9.25 billion, meaning about 30% growth compared to the prior year. The correlation between income and the number of deliveries is not 100%, but extreme dependence exists. Therefore, for my analysis, I expect the company to deliver 30% more EVs this year than in FY 2022. FY 2023 deliveries should be about 160,000 to meet the projected consensus revenue. During the first five months of 2023, NIO delivered about 44,000 vehicles, meaning about 116,000 have to be delivered during the remaining seven months of the year. In other words, between June and December of 2023, the company has to deliver about 16.5 thousand vehicles per month on average. In the below table, you can see two significant trends. First, the number of deliveries has declined since February and almost halved. Second, the company was never even close to 16.5 thousand deliveries this year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6231bc8482187baa159191a517f99601\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"234\"/></p><p>Compiled by the author</p><p>Therefore, the risk that the company will not be able to meet expected revenue growth is exceptionally high in the short- and long-term. If the company fails to achieve expected revenue this year, long-term earnings projections will likely be revised by analysts, which will directly adversely affect valuations.</p><p>The company faces intense competition from local EV rivals like Li Auto (LI) and the undisputed global EV leader Tesla (TSLA). We should also not forget other established giant automakers like Toyota (TM) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). In my opinion, the Chinese EV market looks like a&#34;red ocean&#34;, and NIO does not look like a shark in this massacre. Global automotive giants possess more resources to invest in innovation and ramp production. NIO is definitely in a weaker position than TSLA of VWAGY. But the company looks much weaker compared to its Chinese rival, LI. Below is the dynamic of NIO and Li Auto deliveries this year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fb23911ee3fdf87bbaa8b95d9830d95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"/></p><p>Compiled by the author</p><p>We could have blamed possible weakness in the Chinese EV market overall, but we see that Li Auto improved its deliveries sequentially every month this year. After June deliveries are announced, Li Auto will likely surpass its full FY 2022 in the number of vehicles delivered. On the contrary, NIO is very far from surpassing last year&#39;s deliveries. It is a huge red flag for me because the company is losing its market share in the domestic market, meaning NIO&#39;s vehicles will not be competitive outside China as well.</p><h2>Bottom line</h2><p>To conclude, NIO stock is a strong sell. The company is losing market share in the domestic market. If the company is not competitive at home, the chances for a successful global expansion are very close to zero. NIO is highly likely to underperform the ambitious 17% long-term revenue CAGR expected by consensus estimates. Moreover, the company is still burning cash, and the balance sheet looks like the company will need to raise substantial amounts next year. A recent rally might be a good chance to sell the stock because the future does not look bright for NIO.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Sell This Dead Cat Bounce</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Sell This Dead Cat Bounce\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-22 19:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4612901-nio-stock-losing-market-share-in-domestic-market-sell><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment thesisNIO (NYSE:NIO) was one of the hottest stocks during the EV frenzy of 2020-2021. The company's market cap was close to $100 billion and is now traded much cheaper. My analysis suggests...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4612901-nio-stock-losing-market-share-in-domestic-market-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4612901-nio-stock-losing-market-share-in-domestic-market-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2345738161","content_text":"Investment thesisNIO (NYSE:NIO) was one of the hottest stocks during the EV frenzy of 2020-2021. The company's market cap was close to $100 billion and is now traded much cheaper. My analysis suggests the selloff was fair because the company is losing the competition to its local rivals, not to mention other automotive giants entering the Chinese EV market. Moreover, NIO is highly likely to miss the aggressive growth profile consensus estimates expected from the company. Therefore, the stock is a strong sell.Company informationNIO is a Chinese electric vehicle [EV] manufacturer incorporated in 2014. The company is headquartered in Shanghai. NIO designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells its vehicles in the premium EV market.The company's fiscal year ends on December 31 with a single reportable segment.FinancialsNIO went public in the U.S. in 2018. It means we have a relatively short horizon for financial analysis. Over the last five years, the company's sales have increased by about ten-fold, and the company now generates positive gross profit but looks far from a breakeven from the operating profit perspective.Author's calculationsThe company reinvests a substantial 20% of sales to R&D to improve its vehicles. SG&A to revenue ratio also looks high, though it has improved significantly in recent years, meaning the company is striving to expand its operating margin as the business scales up.Data by YChartsLooking at the latest quarterly dynamics, the company faces challenges because Q1 sales were flat while expenses snowballed. It means profitability metrics are shrinking, adding more uncertainty to the company's break-even timing. NIO's flat sales in Q1 are a huge red flag for me because the Chinese EV market grew 25% in Q1 2023 compared to the same period a year earlier. It means that NIO's difficulties are not due to the overall weakness and cannot be explained by cyclicality. Weakness in NIO's Q1 sales is highly likely related to the weak demand for the company's vehicles due to the unattractiveness of the company's offerings. This led to about $750 million operating loss for the quarter. It is crucial because the company is burning cash at a rapid pace. As you can see, the company's cash balance almost halved in just six quarters.Seeking AlphaDuring Q1 of FY 2023, the company's cash balance decreased by about a billion dollars. If NIO sustains this cash burn rate, the company will need to raise financing already in FY 2024. This is a red flag for investors as well. The company will raise debt finance, adversely affecting profitability and decreasing shareholders' wealth. Or, the company might issue more shares, which is also bad for investors whose stakes will be diluted. There are no good options for a company rapidly running out of cash. You can also see below that NIO's liquidity is rapidly melting and liquidity ratios are likely to fall below one in just a few quarters.Author's calculationsValuationNIO stock underperformed the broad U.S. market this year with about a 3% decline in the stock price. Overall, the stock now trades about six times cheaper than January 2021 peaks. Seeking Alpha Quant assigned the stock a low \"D\" valuation grade, meaning NIO is not attractively valued. This is due to the company's high valuation ratios compared to the sector median.I want to cross-check the multiples analysis with a discounted cash flow [DCF] approach. Due to substantial political and country risks, I use a high 15% WACC for the valuation of Chinese companies. I have revenue consensus estimates for the next decade, though I consider them too optimistic, with about 17% CAGR. Therefore, I will simulate a more conservative scenario as well. Consensus estimates also forecast that adjusted EPS will break even after FY 2025. Therefore, I expect a positive FCF margin starting only from FY 2026. I project that the FCF margin will expand by two percentage points yearly.Author's calculationsAs you can see, the company's fair business value is about $58 billion, meaning the stock is about four times undervalued. But 17% revenue CAGR is too optimistic. For example, according to statista.com, the Chinese EV market is expected to grow at a modest 6.4% CAGR over the next five years. To be not so pessimistic, I round up the revenue growth rate to 7% for my second scenario. Since the growth rate is more conservative for the second scenario, so are the FCF assumptions.Author's calculationsBased on more conservative assumptions, the stock now looks fairly valued with little upside potential. Overall, I believe the second scenario is more likely to unfold than the first one. In the \"Risks to consider\" section below, I explain why the company is unlikely to meet long-term consensus expectations.Risks to considerAs we saw in my article's \"Valuation\" section, consensus estimates forecast very aggressive revenue growth. Consensus estimates project FY 2023 revenue at $9.25 billion, meaning about 30% growth compared to the prior year. The correlation between income and the number of deliveries is not 100%, but extreme dependence exists. Therefore, for my analysis, I expect the company to deliver 30% more EVs this year than in FY 2022. FY 2023 deliveries should be about 160,000 to meet the projected consensus revenue. During the first five months of 2023, NIO delivered about 44,000 vehicles, meaning about 116,000 have to be delivered during the remaining seven months of the year. In other words, between June and December of 2023, the company has to deliver about 16.5 thousand vehicles per month on average. In the below table, you can see two significant trends. First, the number of deliveries has declined since February and almost halved. Second, the company was never even close to 16.5 thousand deliveries this year.Compiled by the authorTherefore, the risk that the company will not be able to meet expected revenue growth is exceptionally high in the short- and long-term. If the company fails to achieve expected revenue this year, long-term earnings projections will likely be revised by analysts, which will directly adversely affect valuations.The company faces intense competition from local EV rivals like Li Auto (LI) and the undisputed global EV leader Tesla (TSLA). We should also not forget other established giant automakers like Toyota (TM) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). In my opinion, the Chinese EV market looks like a\"red ocean\", and NIO does not look like a shark in this massacre. Global automotive giants possess more resources to invest in innovation and ramp production. NIO is definitely in a weaker position than TSLA of VWAGY. But the company looks much weaker compared to its Chinese rival, LI. Below is the dynamic of NIO and Li Auto deliveries this year.Compiled by the authorWe could have blamed possible weakness in the Chinese EV market overall, but we see that Li Auto improved its deliveries sequentially every month this year. After June deliveries are announced, Li Auto will likely surpass its full FY 2022 in the number of vehicles delivered. On the contrary, NIO is very far from surpassing last year's deliveries. It is a huge red flag for me because the company is losing its market share in the domestic market, meaning NIO's vehicles will not be competitive outside China as well.Bottom lineTo conclude, NIO stock is a strong sell. The company is losing market share in the domestic market. If the company is not competitive at home, the chances for a successful global expansion are very close to zero. NIO is highly likely to underperform the ambitious 17% long-term revenue CAGR expected by consensus estimates. Moreover, the company is still burning cash, and the balance sheet looks like the company will need to raise substantial amounts next year. A recent rally might be a good chance to sell the stock because the future does not look bright for NIO.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4097900715273400","authorId":"4097900715273400","name":"Yonhuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4ab9f0ed4305d88e3767c39675cedf3","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4097900715273400","authorIdStr":"4097900715273400"},"content":"I think so too. i begin to welcome these trash talk from these financial guru/writers . Did he mentiones there was a slow down due to transition of products to NT2? Speakea much about their knowledge. Such strong headline.","text":"I think so too. i begin to welcome these trash talk from these financial guru/writers . Did he mentiones there was a slow down due to transition of products to NT2? Speakea much about their knowledge. Such strong headline.","html":"I think so too. i begin to welcome these trash talk from these financial guru/writers . Did he mentiones there was a slow down due to transition of products to NT2? Speakea much about their knowledge. Such strong headline."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947371511,"gmtCreate":1682611672934,"gmtModify":1682611678129,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$&nbsp;</a>Dilemma&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$&nbsp;</a>Dilemma&nbsp;","text":"$Zoom(ZM)$ Dilemma","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/087a129565afa17f010df6c636f76caa","width":"1179","height":"2316"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947371511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943975665,"gmtCreate":1679077321958,"gmtModify":1679077364474,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> looking great","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> looking great","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ looking great","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d1660c6c72d016a711f635cbfa7c1a85","width":"1179","height":"2556"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943975665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943975405,"gmtCreate":1679077525607,"gmtModify":1679077529047,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"another good read","listText":"another good read","text":"another good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943975405","repostId":"9949871320","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949871320,"gmtCreate":1678539284260,"gmtModify":1679034396199,"author":{"id":"3527667668165440","authorId":"3527667668165440","name":"Capital_Insights","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfdc66fff48bb2b9e2d328ac5eb33100","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668165440","authorIdStr":"3527667668165440"},"themes":[],"title":"FDIC: 3 Figures to Why SVB Fail, More Risks in Banks & Markets?","htmlText":"Keypoints1）The&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SIVB\">$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$</a> Incident2）3 Figures to Understand WHY3）SVB and Banks Future DestinyEditor's Notes: The market will fluctuate again, choose the right time to overweight US treasury bonds, increase cash positions, and increase high-quality anti-inflation stocks that can generate regular and predictable cash flows.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">Recommend&nbsp;to</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">&nbsp;Read:&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">After SIVB, SBNY, Who is Next, ZION, TFC, FRC, KEY or RF?</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949709815\" target=\"_blank\">How Global Banks &amp; Top Institutions Respo</a>","listText":"Keypoints1）The&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SIVB\">$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$</a> Incident2）3 Figures to Understand WHY3）SVB and Banks Future DestinyEditor's Notes: The market will fluctuate again, choose the right time to overweight US treasury bonds, increase cash positions, and increase high-quality anti-inflation stocks that can generate regular and predictable cash flows.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">Recommend&nbsp;to</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">&nbsp;Read:&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949251142\" target=\"_blank\">After SIVB, SBNY, Who is Next, ZION, TFC, FRC, KEY or RF?</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9949709815\" target=\"_blank\">How Global Banks &amp; Top Institutions Respo</a>","text":"Keypoints1）The $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ Incident2）3 Figures to Understand WHY3）SVB and Banks Future DestinyEditor's Notes: The market will fluctuate again, choose the right time to overweight US treasury bonds, increase cash positions, and increase high-quality anti-inflation stocks that can generate regular and predictable cash flows.Recommend to Read: After SIVB, SBNY, Who is Next, ZION, TFC, FRC, KEY or RF?How Global Banks & Top Institutions Respo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0336b2eb91a8de22e42017b2d79bf59b","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/97e1f574ab48fd1f1f4892c24ad6ffa9","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/351f8c93aab4be1c81dbc5a2210ab5aa","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949871320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943975564,"gmtCreate":1679077502859,"gmtModify":1679077506696,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The explanation of the SVB collapse&nbsp;","listText":"The explanation of the SVB collapse&nbsp;","text":"The explanation of the SVB collapse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943975564","repostId":"9949127849","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949127849,"gmtCreate":1678449006682,"gmtModify":1678449045739,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"When There is a Bank Run on SVB, Where does the Money Go?","htmlText":"Shares of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SIVB\">$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$</a> plunged 60% on Thursday, the biggest one-day drop on record.Another crypto bank Silvergate Capital&nbsp;gave&nbsp;another&nbsp;hit&nbsp;- shut down its banking operations, causing the S&amp;P 500 Banks Index to fall about 6% on Thursday.What&nbsp;happened&nbsp;on&nbsp;SVB?Technology Boom - Total Deposits SkyrocketSVB is Silicon Valley Bank, and like the name, it provides banking services to many startups in Silicon Valley. It also&nbsp;means many startups have their bank accounts in SVB, which is the capital that SVB relies on. The second half of 2020 has seen a global funding boom for technology companies, and the rapid growth in startups loans and venture capital funding has led to a huge amount of cash and","listText":"Shares of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SIVB\">$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$</a> plunged 60% on Thursday, the biggest one-day drop on record.Another crypto bank Silvergate Capital&nbsp;gave&nbsp;another&nbsp;hit&nbsp;- shut down its banking operations, causing the S&amp;P 500 Banks Index to fall about 6% on Thursday.What&nbsp;happened&nbsp;on&nbsp;SVB?Technology Boom - Total Deposits SkyrocketSVB is Silicon Valley Bank, and like the name, it provides banking services to many startups in Silicon Valley. It also&nbsp;means many startups have their bank accounts in SVB, which is the capital that SVB relies on. The second half of 2020 has seen a global funding boom for technology companies, and the rapid growth in startups loans and venture capital funding has led to a huge amount of cash and","text":"Shares of $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ plunged 60% on Thursday, the biggest one-day drop on record.Another crypto bank Silvergate Capital gave another hit - shut down its banking operations, causing the S&P 500 Banks Index to fall about 6% on Thursday.What happened on SVB?Technology Boom - Total Deposits SkyrocketSVB is Silicon Valley Bank, and like the name, it provides banking services to many startups in Silicon Valley. It also means many startups have their bank accounts in SVB, which is the capital that SVB relies on. The second half of 2020 has seen a global funding boom for technology companies, and the rapid growth in startups loans and venture capital funding has led to a huge amount of cash and","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c3b3586743bfa9995693d3a380099c4","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d0afb8552e4d779ca8a110f3ddcfe82","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b98a820699c71f4ce400fa77a516448","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949127849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943975209,"gmtCreate":1679077463401,"gmtModify":1679079655682,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Very interesting&nbsp;","text":"Very interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943975209","repostId":"9940764453","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9940764453,"gmtCreate":1678188706074,"gmtModify":1678189017546,"author":{"id":"4096861291958630","authorId":"4096861291958630","name":"StarLuck","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68dadbe13922423705b61d7955659ae4","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096861291958630","authorIdStr":"4096861291958630"},"themes":[],"title":"Grab Holdings retires US$600 mil in 2026 debt with extra cash","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Grab Holdings Ltd. on Monday said it prepaid US$600 million ($806.6 million) in debt ahead of a 2026 maturity, taking advantage of excess cash on its balance sheet. The Singapore-based ride-hailing and delivery company completed the transaction last week, bringing its debt under an outstanding term loan to US$517 million, down from the previous balance of US$1.117 billion. Grab also has about US$200 million in other bank debt. “Grab is taking advantage of our healthy cash position to reduce our gross debt balance and generate interest savings, given the macroeconomic environment,” said Chief Financial Officer Peter Oey. Grab in November bought back about US$750 million in debt - part of its US$2","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Grab Holdings Ltd. on Monday said it prepaid US$600 million ($806.6 million) in debt ahead of a 2026 maturity, taking advantage of excess cash on its balance sheet. The Singapore-based ride-hailing and delivery company completed the transaction last week, bringing its debt under an outstanding term loan to US$517 million, down from the previous balance of US$1.117 billion. Grab also has about US$200 million in other bank debt. “Grab is taking advantage of our healthy cash position to reduce our gross debt balance and generate interest savings, given the macroeconomic environment,” said Chief Financial Officer Peter Oey. Grab in November bought back about US$750 million in debt - part of its US$2","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ Grab Holdings Ltd. on Monday said it prepaid US$600 million ($806.6 million) in debt ahead of a 2026 maturity, taking advantage of excess cash on its balance sheet. The Singapore-based ride-hailing and delivery company completed the transaction last week, bringing its debt under an outstanding term loan to US$517 million, down from the previous balance of US$1.117 billion. Grab also has about US$200 million in other bank debt. “Grab is taking advantage of our healthy cash position to reduce our gross debt balance and generate interest savings, given the macroeconomic environment,” said Chief Financial Officer Peter Oey. Grab in November bought back about US$750 million in debt - part of its US$2","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de64c2b8ee393d8510e03cc44085a9e1","width":"1200","height":"801"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940764453","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943975827,"gmtCreate":1679077273869,"gmtModify":1679077323688,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dce96e9bedec6cc2a69720b73575c7b4","width":"1179","height":"2316"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943975827","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963394208,"gmtCreate":1668587182805,"gmtModify":1676538080568,"author":{"id":"4088331814097860","authorId":"4088331814097860","name":"业者高","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/24ad776b07e6be049a7d5bcce4412c14","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088331814097860","authorIdStr":"4088331814097860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪🏼💪🏼","listText":"💪🏼💪🏼","text":"💪🏼💪🏼","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daf79869d2352d662926c2e0ad2a8405","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963394208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}