SamG personal page - To The Moon

SamG

SamG

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2023-01-02

hd//@MasterStonker:Ya//@MasterStonker: //@MasterStonker: Ya//@MasterStonker: Yoyo//@MasterStonker: Yo//@MasterStonker: Go go go //@MasterStonker: Yo //@MasterStonker: Go go go//@MasterStonker: Go go go //@MasterStonker: Ya//

@TigerEvents:[Rewards] Share Your Positions & Win Tiger Coins 🚀🚀

2023-12-14

01-16

$苹果(AAPL)$ [爱心] [强] [爱心] [强] [爱心] [强] [爱心] [强] [爱心] [强] [爱心]

07-02

Tiger is the best, forever love you ❤️

2023-04-05

Just do it

2022-08-18

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ggd

2022-06-22

$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$xxx

2022-06-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$np

2022-08-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ffh

2022-06-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$nnn

2022-12-13

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2022-08-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$nn

2022-07-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$gg

2022-07-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ggd

2022-07-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ww

2022-05-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$good

2022-04-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$holdholdhold

2022-03-10

Good

蔚来正式登陆港交所！李斌的对赌警报解除了吗？

2023-02-08

Microsoft is the best

2023-01-24

$三倍做空半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXS)$

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: Yoyo//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: Yo//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: Go go go //<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: Yo //<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: Go go go//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: Go go go //<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: Ya//","listText":"hd//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>:Ya//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: //<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: Ya//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: Yoyo//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3561713422683896\">@MasterStonker</a>: Yo//<a 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[爱心]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1974175bbe3ee1159818f2bbe89d11b","width":"898","height":"1475"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/263378994233528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323004972306536,"gmtCreate":1719888996718,"gmtModify":1719889392788,"author":{"id":"4088336961102170","authorId":"4088336961102170","name":"SamG","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/104375ae6577f1b377748426c88b86fc","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088336961102170","authorIdStr":"4088336961102170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is the best, forever love you ❤️&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger is the best, forever love you ❤️&nbsp;","text":"Tiger is the best, forever love you ❤️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323004972306536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948363715,"gmtCreate":1680625551137,"gmtModify":1680625554318,"author":{"id":"4088336961102170","authorId":"4088336961102170","name":"SamG","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/104375ae6577f1b377748426c88b86fc","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088336961102170","authorIdStr":"4088336961102170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Just do it&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Just do it&nbsp;","text":"Just do 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>nnn","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$nnn","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f1d7a649acae6a109a622248fa29a93","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055874896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581422137932781","authorId":"3581422137932781","name":"Haotodo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581422137932781","authorIdStr":"3581422137932781"},"content":"nnn - no nut November","text":"nnn - no nut November","html":"nnn - no nut 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>holdholdhold","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$holdholdhold","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3ce38862b10a33af3f6267f39049e9a2","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089540610","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038497885,"gmtCreate":1646880560550,"gmtModify":1676534173229,"author":{"id":"4088336961102170","authorId":"4088336961102170","name":"SamG","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/104375ae6577f1b377748426c88b86fc","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088336961102170","authorIdStr":"4088336961102170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038497885","repostId":"1160566470","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160566470","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646879754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160566470?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-10 10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"蔚来正式登陆港交所！李斌的对赌警报解除了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160566470","media":"大摩财经","summary":"在小鹏回港8个月、理想回港7个月后，“迟到”的蔚来终于就位。3月10日，蔚来在港交所挂牌交易，股票代码9866。摩根士丹利、瑞信和中金公司为此次IPO的联席保荐人。至此，“蔚小理”在集体赴美之后，再次","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在小鹏回港8个月、理想回港7个月后，“迟到”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>终于就位。3月10日，蔚来在港交所挂牌交易，股票代码9866。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、瑞信和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>为此次IPO的联席保荐人。至此，“蔚小理”在集体赴美之后，再次在港股聚首。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b74dc3da2322e914a6e3cd92b8c39f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>但是相比两年前，国内造车新势力的局势似乎有了新的变化。</p><p><b>从“蔚小理”变为“小蔚理”</b></p><p><b>蔚来本次IPO并不发行新股，原有的股权结构保持不变。</b>其中，蔚来创始人、董事长兼CEO李斌实际持股10.6%，拥有39%投票权；第二大股东<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>持股9.8%，拥有17.4%投票权；三股东英国投资机构Baillie Gifford &amp; Co持股6.5%，投票权为3.5%。</p><p>回港上市的蔚来，仍然带着沉重的枷锁。2018年至2021年前三季度，蔚来营收分别为49.51亿元、78.25亿元、162.58亿元和262.36亿元，整体呈上涨态势，但并未改变亏损局面。同期净亏损分别为96.390亿元、112.957亿元及53.041亿元和18.735亿元。蔚来持续亏损的原因，主要是由于高额销售成本以及研发费用增加所致。</p><p><b>以2021年前三季度交付量计算，蔚来累计交付66395辆车，净亏损18.73亿，每辆车差不多亏损3万元。</b></p><p>相比预期中的亏损，蔚来出乎意料的低迷销量更让市场关心。<b>2021年蔚来累计交付91429辆，已经被小鹏反超近7000辆。造车新势力的名次排序也随之发生变更，从昔日的“蔚小理”变为“小蔚理”。</b></p><p>从月销量来看，自去年下半年起，别的造车新势力都在向上，蔚来在向下。2021年7月，蔚来交付量首次失去月度销冠宝座被小鹏反超，8月又被理想和哪吒反超跌出前三，10月因生产线改造当月只交付了3667辆。从2021年11月起连续4个月，小鹏、理想的成绩都要比蔚来好。</p><p><b>整个2021年度蔚来都没能跑赢行业。</b>乘联会数据显示，2021年狭义新能源车（插混、纯电动、燃料电池）全球销量同比增长118%，而蔚来当年的交付量同比增速仅有109.1%。</p><p>2022年以来，蔚来颓势依旧。<b>今年前两个月，蔚来分别交付9652辆和6131辆，不仅明显低于理想和小鹏，甚至已经被哪吒汽车超越。</b></p><p>蔚来销量下滑，与其自身迟迟没有新车推出有很大关系。蔚来目前共有三款车型在售，但其中最“年轻”的EC6，也早在2020年9月开始交付。也就是说，过去一年半以来，蔚来一直没有新车型面试。这三款基于NT1.0平台的车型放在现在来看，硬件和搭载的软件均已经被竞争对手超过。<b>蔚来想要打开销售萎靡的局面，急需新车型救场。</b></p><p>根据计划，蔚来在今年将推出三款新车。除了蔚来已经为人熟知的SUV车型 ES7，还将在3月份和9月份先后交付高端轿跑ET7和中型轿车ET5。</p><p><b>三款新车虽然相比蔚来在售车型硬件明显提升，但横向对比竞争对手似乎并没有太大优势。</b>预计今年3月28日开始交付的蔚来ET7是蔚来首款轿跑，主要卖点之一是激光雷达。虽然2021年1月ET7亮相时，这种概念算得上超前，但一年多过去了，这一技术已经不再时髦。事实上，早在2021年9月实现量产的小鹏P5就采用了激光雷达。</p><p>预计今年下半年交付的蔚来ET5，从命名上就可以看出是蔚来ET7的低端版，也是预计“走量”的车型，但蔚来能否保障供应链是一个极大的考验。</p><p>2021年，蔚来江淮工厂进行了产能升级，将年产能从12万辆提升至24万辆，通过增加班次等方式可达到30万辆。</p><p>产能是上去了，但是蔚来能不能交付出如此多的车还是未知数。<b>李斌此前在采访中表示，电池是制约蔚来交付量的最大因素。</b>蔚来电池供应商只有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>，交付量完全靠宁德时代的产量“赏脸”。相比之下，理想和小鹏同时选择<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>的电池，虽然可能缺乏蔚来在宁德时代的议价能力，但可以更好地保证电池供应的稳定。</p><p><b>另外“缺芯”依旧是造车新势力的共同难题，用李斌的话说，“我们很难预期哪一款芯片突然出什么问题。”</b></p><p>除了投产新车型，蔚来还需要大量的钱来投资换电站。蔚来一直是换电方案坚定的拥趸，截至2022年2月，蔚来在全国布局了844座换电站。根据计划，2022年起，蔚来在中国市场每年新增600座换电站，至2025年底，蔚来换电站全球总数将超4000座。</p><p>换电站价值不菲，基本上百万起步。但市场认为，<b>在政策利好新能源车采用换电模式的趋势下，蔚来押注换电站是在用钱换未来，后续可能凭借换电站的数量优势或也能重回赛道第一。</b></p><p>随着新能源汽车竞争进入下半场，造车新势力们除了要面对原有玩家的竞争，也需要面临新巨头的进厂。今年2月底，上汽与阿里合作的智己L7已经正式投产。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>和小米的汽车也计划于2023年和2024年开始量产。</p><p>蔚来本次回港上市，除了要面临销量下滑带来的投资影响，还需要考虑资本市场对新能源汽车赛道整体估值下滑。年初至今，港股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>和理想分别下跌44.71%和19.89%，美股蔚来跌幅也超过四成以上。</p><p>蔚来作为守擂的一方，如何顶住新巨头的冲击，在接下来的数年内尤为关键。但有意思的是，持续亏损且有大量投资需求的蔚来本次上市并未融资，还表示自己不缺钱。</p><p><b>不融资的上市</b></p><p>蔚来在赴港上市之际，已经向新加坡证券交易所提出以介绍方式实现上市，具体上市日期还待审核。</p><p><b>不管是港交所还是新交所，蔚来均采取“介绍上市”的方式，不发新股也不募资，只是公司股东将本身的旧股申请挂牌买卖，不涉及新的融资。</b></p><p>同为造车新势力的小鹏和理想回港都采用了双重上市，即美股和港股分别IPO，两个股票市场是相互独立的，虽仍然要同时受到两地的监管，但满足沪港通和深港通的接入条件后，可以直接吸引国内A股投资者。小鹏和理想通过在港股上市分别募资140亿港元和118亿港元。</p><p>而此前回港的互联网公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、百度等采用的是二次上市，审核相对宽松，上市成功后，两地的股票可以实现跨市场流通。二次上市同样可以融资，阿里和百度二次回港，分别融资880亿港元和240亿港元。</p><p>蔚来采用的“介绍上市”的方式，不发行新股、不募集资金，只提供股票交易。对此，蔚来解释称，回港上市可为投资者提供备选的交易地点，缓解地缘政治风险，并强调目前资金充沛。</p><p>但蔚来最初的计划可不是这样的。2021年3月曾有消息传出，蔚来 “通过秘密方式”在港提交了二次上市申请。至于为何没能二次上市成功，与蔚来在2019年建立的用户信托基金脱不开关系。</p><p>李斌于2019年1月将其名下的5000万股蔚来股票转出，成立蔚来用户信托基金。根据蔚来的说法，这部分信托基金的收益将分给用户。</p><p>蔚来目前尚未盈利，用户信托基金无法分红，想要获利只能出售股权。根据章程，蔚来用户信托基金初始资产为5000万股，每一财年可出售不超过5%，超出5000万股的部分出售则不受限制。但信托基金的持股何时卖出？卖出多少？对李斌的投票权有多大影响？这些问题蔚来并未讲清。因此，港交所压下了蔚来二次上市的计划。</p><p>除此之外，<b>市场还关心，这部分基金收益是否会让部分蔚来用户成为其“喉舌”。</b>2021年8月，31岁的企业家林文钦驾驶蔚来ES8汽车启用自动驾驶功能（NOP领航状态）后，发生交通事故离世。这让蔚来的自动驾驶功能被推上舆论风口，外界质疑其涉嫌诱导用户。</p><p>随后，500位蔚来车主主动帮蔚来平息舆情，发布NOP/NP 系统认知的联合声明，否认蔚来在自动驾驶上宣传误导。值得注意的是，这个“500人声明”的牵头人就是蔚来用户信托基金的理事之一。</p><p>截至2021年三季末，蔚来现金储备约470亿元。同年11月，蔚来完成美股ATM增发，融资20亿美元（约人民币127亿元）。</p><p>按照小鹏、理想回港上市的募资规模来看，蔚来即使成功双重上市，能募集的资金大概也就是这个规模。换句话说，<b>不是蔚来不缺钱，而是由于港股IPO不顺利，把本来想通过港股募集的资金，转道通过美股增发实现了。</b>由此来看，蔚来回港的短期目标并不是融资，而是挂牌“卡位”。</p><p>值得一提的是，合肥市政府曾在官微上透露，其要求蔚来要在2025年前在科创板上市。虽然该微博已经被删除，但可以肯定的是，接下来一段时间里，蔚来的上市步伐不会放慢。</p><p><b>对赌警报</b></p><p>随着蔚来赴港上市成为定局，蔚来此前与合肥国资签订的对赌协议也再次被市场关注。</p><p>2019年，蔚来巨额亏损、产品自燃、高管离职等诸多困境，在资本市场上也溃不成军，股价最低跌至接近1美元，早期投资者高瓴一度清仓蔚来。</p><p>彼时，李斌被称为“最惨的男人”，数次希望与北京亦庄国投、浙江湖州吴兴区政府等国资合作均被拒绝。直到2020年蔚来与合肥市政府达成合作，拿到70亿“救命钱”后，蔚来才逐渐缓了过来。</p><p>2020年4月，蔚来与合肥国资达成战略合作，合肥国资向蔚来中国投资70亿元，蔚来投资42.6亿元，二者分别持有蔚来中国的24.1%和75.9%的股份。</p><p>同时，合肥资方要求蔚来中国在收到投资后48个月内提交IPO，并在60个月内完成上市；蔚来汽车或蔚来中国的控制权不能发生变化。</p><p>如果没完成IPO或控股权发生变化，李斌要赎回蔚来中国的股份，赎回价格是合肥国资的投资总额，并以年利率8.5%计算利息。</p><p>根据媒体报道，IPO之外，蔚来需要完成的业绩承诺还包括：2020年营收148亿元（上市3款车型），2024年营收1200亿元（上市6-8款车型），2020年至2025年总营收4200亿元，总税收78亿。</p><p>在这份并未公开披露的协议里，蔚来需要缴纳的总税收已经超过了合肥国资的投资总额。2020年，蔚来营收163亿元，完成当年营收目标。2021年前三季度，蔚来实现营收262亿元，预计全年营收在350亿元左右。也就是说，<b>蔚来想要完成对赌，需要在接下来的四年里完成3700亿元左右的营收，平均每年营收超过900亿元。</b></p><p>这个营收标准对于目前的蔚来来说，几乎是一个不可能完成的目标。李斌要如何破局，值得进一步关注。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1568072423709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来正式登陆港交所！李斌的对赌警报解除了吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来正式登陆港交所！李斌的对赌警报解除了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-10 10:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI2MTE3NzUxOA==&mid=2650858655&idx=1&sn=7809664295cd3fcb760895ee32cca6aa&chksm=f1aa2d5ec6dda448c6c50381a08a6fa407644f2b5d1a3d31dcea3559062111562116ba29e917#rd><strong>大摩财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在小鹏回港8个月、理想回港7个月后，“迟到”的蔚来终于就位。3月10日，蔚来在港交所挂牌交易，股票代码9866。摩根士丹利、瑞信和中金公司为此次IPO的联席保荐人。至此，“蔚小理”在集体赴美之后，再次在港股聚首。但是相比两年前，国内造车新势力的局势似乎有了新的变化。从“蔚小理”变为“小蔚理”蔚来本次IPO并不发行新股，原有的股权结构保持不变。其中，蔚来创始人、董事长兼CEO李斌实际持股10.6%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI2MTE3NzUxOA==&mid=2650858655&idx=1&sn=7809664295cd3fcb760895ee32cca6aa&chksm=f1aa2d5ec6dda448c6c50381a08a6fa407644f2b5d1a3d31dcea3559062111562116ba29e917#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aca03709a056983dd75af00d87d9e53","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","BK4504":"桥水持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI2MTE3NzUxOA==&mid=2650858655&idx=1&sn=7809664295cd3fcb760895ee32cca6aa&chksm=f1aa2d5ec6dda448c6c50381a08a6fa407644f2b5d1a3d31dcea3559062111562116ba29e917#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160566470","content_text":"在小鹏回港8个月、理想回港7个月后，“迟到”的蔚来终于就位。3月10日，蔚来在港交所挂牌交易，股票代码9866。摩根士丹利、瑞信和中金公司为此次IPO的联席保荐人。至此，“蔚小理”在集体赴美之后，再次在港股聚首。但是相比两年前，国内造车新势力的局势似乎有了新的变化。从“蔚小理”变为“小蔚理”蔚来本次IPO并不发行新股，原有的股权结构保持不变。其中，蔚来创始人、董事长兼CEO李斌实际持股10.6%，拥有39%投票权；第二大股东腾讯持股9.8%，拥有17.4%投票权；三股东英国投资机构Baillie Gifford & Co持股6.5%，投票权为3.5%。回港上市的蔚来，仍然带着沉重的枷锁。2018年至2021年前三季度，蔚来营收分别为49.51亿元、78.25亿元、162.58亿元和262.36亿元，整体呈上涨态势，但并未改变亏损局面。同期净亏损分别为96.390亿元、112.957亿元及53.041亿元和18.735亿元。蔚来持续亏损的原因，主要是由于高额销售成本以及研发费用增加所致。以2021年前三季度交付量计算，蔚来累计交付66395辆车，净亏损18.73亿，每辆车差不多亏损3万元。相比预期中的亏损，蔚来出乎意料的低迷销量更让市场关心。2021年蔚来累计交付91429辆，已经被小鹏反超近7000辆。造车新势力的名次排序也随之发生变更，从昔日的“蔚小理”变为“小蔚理”。从月销量来看，自去年下半年起，别的造车新势力都在向上，蔚来在向下。2021年7月，蔚来交付量首次失去月度销冠宝座被小鹏反超，8月又被理想和哪吒反超跌出前三，10月因生产线改造当月只交付了3667辆。从2021年11月起连续4个月，小鹏、理想的成绩都要比蔚来好。整个2021年度蔚来都没能跑赢行业。乘联会数据显示，2021年狭义新能源车（插混、纯电动、燃料电池）全球销量同比增长118%，而蔚来当年的交付量同比增速仅有109.1%。2022年以来，蔚来颓势依旧。今年前两个月，蔚来分别交付9652辆和6131辆，不仅明显低于理想和小鹏，甚至已经被哪吒汽车超越。蔚来销量下滑，与其自身迟迟没有新车推出有很大关系。蔚来目前共有三款车型在售，但其中最“年轻”的EC6，也早在2020年9月开始交付。也就是说，过去一年半以来，蔚来一直没有新车型面试。这三款基于NT1.0平台的车型放在现在来看，硬件和搭载的软件均已经被竞争对手超过。蔚来想要打开销售萎靡的局面，急需新车型救场。根据计划，蔚来在今年将推出三款新车。除了蔚来已经为人熟知的SUV车型 ES7，还将在3月份和9月份先后交付高端轿跑ET7和中型轿车ET5。三款新车虽然相比蔚来在售车型硬件明显提升，但横向对比竞争对手似乎并没有太大优势。预计今年3月28日开始交付的蔚来ET7是蔚来首款轿跑，主要卖点之一是激光雷达。虽然2021年1月ET7亮相时，这种概念算得上超前，但一年多过去了，这一技术已经不再时髦。事实上，早在2021年9月实现量产的小鹏P5就采用了激光雷达。预计今年下半年交付的蔚来ET5，从命名上就可以看出是蔚来ET7的低端版，也是预计“走量”的车型，但蔚来能否保障供应链是一个极大的考验。2021年，蔚来江淮工厂进行了产能升级，将年产能从12万辆提升至24万辆，通过增加班次等方式可达到30万辆。产能是上去了，但是蔚来能不能交付出如此多的车还是未知数。李斌此前在采访中表示，电池是制约蔚来交付量的最大因素。蔚来电池供应商只有宁德时代，交付量完全靠宁德时代的产量“赏脸”。相比之下，理想和小鹏同时选择比亚迪的电池，虽然可能缺乏蔚来在宁德时代的议价能力，但可以更好地保证电池供应的稳定。另外“缺芯”依旧是造车新势力的共同难题，用李斌的话说，“我们很难预期哪一款芯片突然出什么问题。”除了投产新车型，蔚来还需要大量的钱来投资换电站。蔚来一直是换电方案坚定的拥趸，截至2022年2月，蔚来在全国布局了844座换电站。根据计划，2022年起，蔚来在中国市场每年新增600座换电站，至2025年底，蔚来换电站全球总数将超4000座。换电站价值不菲，基本上百万起步。但市场认为，在政策利好新能源车采用换电模式的趋势下，蔚来押注换电站是在用钱换未来，后续可能凭借换电站的数量优势或也能重回赛道第一。随着新能源汽车竞争进入下半场，造车新势力们除了要面对原有玩家的竞争，也需要面临新巨头的进厂。今年2月底，上汽与阿里合作的智己L7已经正式投产。百度和小米的汽车也计划于2023年和2024年开始量产。蔚来本次回港上市，除了要面临销量下滑带来的投资影响，还需要考虑资本市场对新能源汽车赛道整体估值下滑。年初至今，港股小鹏汽车和理想分别下跌44.71%和19.89%，美股蔚来跌幅也超过四成以上。蔚来作为守擂的一方，如何顶住新巨头的冲击，在接下来的数年内尤为关键。但有意思的是，持续亏损且有大量投资需求的蔚来本次上市并未融资，还表示自己不缺钱。不融资的上市蔚来在赴港上市之际，已经向新加坡证券交易所提出以介绍方式实现上市，具体上市日期还待审核。不管是港交所还是新交所，蔚来均采取“介绍上市”的方式，不发新股也不募资，只是公司股东将本身的旧股申请挂牌买卖，不涉及新的融资。同为造车新势力的小鹏和理想回港都采用了双重上市，即美股和港股分别IPO，两个股票市场是相互独立的，虽仍然要同时受到两地的监管，但满足沪港通和深港通的接入条件后，可以直接吸引国内A股投资者。小鹏和理想通过在港股上市分别募资140亿港元和118亿港元。而此前回港的互联网公司阿里巴巴、百度等采用的是二次上市，审核相对宽松，上市成功后，两地的股票可以实现跨市场流通。二次上市同样可以融资，阿里和百度二次回港，分别融资880亿港元和240亿港元。蔚来采用的“介绍上市”的方式，不发行新股、不募集资金，只提供股票交易。对此，蔚来解释称，回港上市可为投资者提供备选的交易地点，缓解地缘政治风险，并强调目前资金充沛。但蔚来最初的计划可不是这样的。2021年3月曾有消息传出，蔚来 “通过秘密方式”在港提交了二次上市申请。至于为何没能二次上市成功，与蔚来在2019年建立的用户信托基金脱不开关系。李斌于2019年1月将其名下的5000万股蔚来股票转出，成立蔚来用户信托基金。根据蔚来的说法，这部分信托基金的收益将分给用户。蔚来目前尚未盈利，用户信托基金无法分红，想要获利只能出售股权。根据章程，蔚来用户信托基金初始资产为5000万股，每一财年可出售不超过5%，超出5000万股的部分出售则不受限制。但信托基金的持股何时卖出？卖出多少？对李斌的投票权有多大影响？这些问题蔚来并未讲清。因此，港交所压下了蔚来二次上市的计划。除此之外，市场还关心，这部分基金收益是否会让部分蔚来用户成为其“喉舌”。2021年8月，31岁的企业家林文钦驾驶蔚来ES8汽车启用自动驾驶功能（NOP领航状态）后，发生交通事故离世。这让蔚来的自动驾驶功能被推上舆论风口，外界质疑其涉嫌诱导用户。随后，500位蔚来车主主动帮蔚来平息舆情，发布NOP/NP 系统认知的联合声明，否认蔚来在自动驾驶上宣传误导。值得注意的是，这个“500人声明”的牵头人就是蔚来用户信托基金的理事之一。截至2021年三季末，蔚来现金储备约470亿元。同年11月，蔚来完成美股ATM增发，融资20亿美元（约人民币127亿元）。按照小鹏、理想回港上市的募资规模来看，蔚来即使成功双重上市，能募集的资金大概也就是这个规模。换句话说，不是蔚来不缺钱，而是由于港股IPO不顺利，把本来想通过港股募集的资金，转道通过美股增发实现了。由此来看，蔚来回港的短期目标并不是融资，而是挂牌“卡位”。值得一提的是，合肥市政府曾在官微上透露，其要求蔚来要在2025年前在科创板上市。虽然该微博已经被删除，但可以肯定的是，接下来一段时间里，蔚来的上市步伐不会放慢。对赌警报随着蔚来赴港上市成为定局，蔚来此前与合肥国资签订的对赌协议也再次被市场关注。2019年，蔚来巨额亏损、产品自燃、高管离职等诸多困境，在资本市场上也溃不成军，股价最低跌至接近1美元，早期投资者高瓴一度清仓蔚来。彼时，李斌被称为“最惨的男人”，数次希望与北京亦庄国投、浙江湖州吴兴区政府等国资合作均被拒绝。直到2020年蔚来与合肥市政府达成合作，拿到70亿“救命钱”后，蔚来才逐渐缓了过来。2020年4月，蔚来与合肥国资达成战略合作，合肥国资向蔚来中国投资70亿元，蔚来投资42.6亿元，二者分别持有蔚来中国的24.1%和75.9%的股份。同时，合肥资方要求蔚来中国在收到投资后48个月内提交IPO，并在60个月内完成上市；蔚来汽车或蔚来中国的控制权不能发生变化。如果没完成IPO或控股权发生变化，李斌要赎回蔚来中国的股份，赎回价格是合肥国资的投资总额，并以年利率8.5%计算利息。根据媒体报道，IPO之外，蔚来需要完成的业绩承诺还包括：2020年营收148亿元（上市3款车型），2024年营收1200亿元（上市6-8款车型），2020年至2025年总营收4200亿元，总税收78亿。在这份并未公开披露的协议里，蔚来需要缴纳的总税收已经超过了合肥国资的投资总额。2020年，蔚来营收163亿元，完成当年营收目标。2021年前三季度，蔚来实现营收262亿元，预计全年营收在350亿元左右。也就是说，蔚来想要完成对赌，需要在接下来的四年里完成3700亿元左右的营收，平均每年营收超过900亿元。这个营收标准对于目前的蔚来来说，几乎是一个不可能完成的目标。李斌要如何破局，值得进一步关注。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955758587,"gmtCreate":1675786333349,"gmtModify":1675786338046,"author":{"id":"4088336961102170","authorId":"4088336961102170","name":"SamG","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/104375ae6577f1b377748426c88b86fc","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088336961102170","authorIdStr":"4088336961102170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Microsoft 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