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2022-09-18

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Upstart vs. Affirm: Which Beaten-Down IPO is Most Likely to Resurrect?

2022-08-29

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$395🤩

2022-07-21

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Upstart’s business model matches the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/upstart-vs-affirm-which-beaten-down-ipo-is-most-likely-to-resurrect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart vs. Affirm: Which Beaten-Down IPO is Most Likely to Resurrect?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart vs. Affirm: Which Beaten-Down IPO is Most Likely to Resurrect?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 09:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/upstart-vs-affirm-which-beaten-down-ipo-is-most-likely-to-resurrect><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsFollowing last year’s IPO craze, numerous equities have suffered massive losses from their past highs, including shares of Upstart & Affirm. Upstart’s business model matches the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/upstart-vs-affirm-which-beaten-down-ipo-is-most-likely-to-resurrect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AFRM":"Affirm Holdings, Inc.","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/upstart-vs-affirm-which-beaten-down-ipo-is-most-likely-to-resurrect","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118505487","content_text":"Story HighlightsFollowing last year’s IPO craze, numerous equities have suffered massive losses from their past highs, including shares of Upstart & Affirm. Upstart’s business model matches the current environment somewhat better, while its profitability prospects offer a wider margin of safety. For reasons mentioned below, I believe Upstart stock has a much higher chance of recovering compared to Affirm.Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) and Affirm (NASDAQ: AFRM) were two of the most sought-after IPOs in late 2020 and early 2021. The two companies saw their shares surge during the first few months of trading in the public markets. Yet, Upstart & Affirm are currently trading around 94% and 87% off their all-time highs – quite a staggering development.In this article, I am going to provide some context on what caused such massive declines following the IPO euphoria of 2020 and 2021 and then speculate which one of the two names has the higher chance of making investors’ money back.What Caused Upstart & Affirm to Surge Only to Violently Decline After?The IPO market went nuts last year, and for a good reason. With investors riding the euphoria formed by the post-COVID-19 recovery, trillions of dollars flooding the market following government assistance to businesses and individuals, and monetary easing encouraging cheap borrowing, inflated valuations persisted strongly. Thus, it was probably the best time in history to take your company public, as investment banks, VC funds, and angel investors could exit their holdings at fantastic multiples.To add some color to the picture, in 2019 and 2020, 232 and 480 IPOs were completed. In fact, 480 was a new record at the time. In 2021, this number skyrocketed to an unprecedented 1,035, more than two times higher than the previous year’s record. Then, reality knocked on investors’ doors.Who would have thought that printing over $5 trillion dollars would cause inflation levels to surge? Some did, and inflation certainly did surge. In fact, it remains at sky-high levels. Then, things took a contrasting turn. With the FED eager to control inflation via rising interest rates, the economy has been set to slow down.Add growing costs amid supply-chain constraints and a tight labor market, and the previously sky-high valuation multiples were no longer justifiable by any means possible. It’s no wonder that during the first nine months of 2022, only 153 IPOs have taken place – a fraction compared to last year.The majority of the companies that went public amid last year’s euphoria would never make enough money any time soon to justify their stock prices, hence why many of these stocks declined by 80% to 90% from their all-time highs in the span of a few months. Upstart and Affirm were met with the same fate. In fact, these companies were affected massively due to their business model requiring a thriving economy to produce growing results.Which Stock Has the Chance to Make Your Money Back?As just mentioned, Upstart and Affirm, in particular, require blossoming economic conditions to grow since the former’s business model is focused on lending and the latter’s on buy-now-pay-later (BNPL). As you can easily imagine, nobody is going to borrow money or buy products that they may not be able to repay later. Thus, the two businesses have a hard time in a rising-rate environment loaded with uncertainty.However, if I had to bet which stock has the higher chance of coming back from the dead, it would definitely be Upstart. This is due to its lean, margin-rich business model, which should start building equity value on the balance sheet quite rapidly. For context, Upstart’s gross and EBITDA margins over the past four quarters amount to 83.7% and 9.7%, respectively. In the case of Affirm, these figures stand at 49% and -53%.Source: Koyfin.comClearly, Upstart’s current and future profitability prospects are levels ahead of Affirm’s. Most certainly, investors are unlikely to prefer a money-losing business in the current environment. This is because raising additional funds these days would be disastrous. Investors would be massively diluted for the extra cash at the stock’s current price levels.Upstart’s business model has the upper hand here, as even though lending volumes may decline, the company continues to license its AI platform to banks, which results in high-margin, recurring cash flows. In fact, while lending activities may shrink, banks actually need Upstart’s AI more than ever to filter between creditworthy and uncreditworthy borrowers in the current environment.Affirm loses here, as merchants aren’t encouraged to use its platform if they think the current economic conditions will prevent customers from paying back their commitments.From a margin of safety point of view, Upstart stock also has the upper hand. The company is currently trading at around 19.6x Fiscal 2023’s expected earnings, which is quite an attractive valuation multiple considering that it could grow notably from there if economic conditions improve. Again, making money these days is truly important.Further, due to Upstart management recognizing the fact that shares are cheap against the company’s future profit prospects, earlier this year, they announced a $400 million repurchase program. No repurchases have taken place yet, though the program makes for a good reminder that the company is profitable and will be returning capital to shareholders.In contrast, Affirm is not expected to make any money, at least all the way through Fiscal 2025, if not for longer. Thus, investors have little to no margin of safety in comparison, with the company’s equity value likely to go down the drain during this time.Conclusion: Upstart Looks Like the Better ChoiceBetween Upstart’s AI-lending and Affirm’s BNPL business models, the former has a clear advantage during the ongoing macroeconomic landscape. Additionally, Upstart profitability prospects are much more attractive, providing investors with a much wider margin of safety against Affirm’s money-losing operations. This, combined with the fact that Upstart is trading at a relatively cheap valuation, leads me to the conclusion that Upstart has a significantly higher chance of repairing investors’ recent losses.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997165933,"gmtCreate":1661763978625,"gmtModify":1676536574733,"author":{"id":"4088946622416580","authorId":"4088946622416580","name":"happy87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088946622416580","idStr":"4088946622416580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>395🤩","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>395🤩","text":"$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$395🤩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997165933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074861150,"gmtCreate":1658333347570,"gmtModify":1676536142439,"author":{"id":"4088946622416580","authorId":"4088946622416580","name":"happy87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088946622416580","idStr":"4088946622416580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>100","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>100","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074861150","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9937536968,"gmtCreate":1663465509954,"gmtModify":1676537273814,"author":{"id":"4088946622416580","authorId":"4088946622416580","name":"happy87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088946622416580","idStr":"4088946622416580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"456https://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://mehttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifdia.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gif","listText":"456https://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://mehttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifdia.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gif","text":"456https://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://mehttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifdia.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gifhttps://media.tenor.com/ggE9rAd1JcMAAAAM/oktoberfest-dancing.gif","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937536968","repostId":"1118505487","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958123077,"gmtCreate":1673662456299,"gmtModify":1676538872112,"author":{"id":"4088946622416580","authorId":"4088946622416580","name":"happy87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088946622416580","idStr":"4088946622416580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;for","listText":"&nbsp;for","text":"for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958123077","repostId":"1169403828","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169403828","pubTimestamp":1673658980,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169403828?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-14 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investing Lessons for 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169403828","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"It’s either been a terrible time or a great time to be owning stocks.A lot depends on when you start","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It’s either been a terrible time or a great time to be owning stocks.</p><p>A lot depends on when you started investing.</p><p>Last year, the <b>S&amp;P 500Index</b> sank 19.4 percent, marking its worst performance since 2008. Investors who put in their money at the start of 2022 would understandably be distraught.</p><p>Yet, if you lengthen your time horizon, the returns look vastly different.</p><p>Between 2018 and 2022, the S&amp;P 500 rose by a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5 percent per year, fairly close to the index’s long-term average return of 10 percent per year.</p><p>Similarly, the lessons you learn from the past 12 months are very different from the conclusions you draw from events that happened years or decades ago.</p><p>The best lessons, I would argue, come from the latter, and not the former.</p><p><b>Livin’ on the edge</b></p><p>When confronted with unfamiliar situations, humans have a tendency to dwell on the extremes.</p><p>For instance, visits to Singapore’s shopping malls were severely curtailed during the 2020 circuit breaker.</p><p>During that time, <b>Frasers Centrepoint Trust</b>(SGX: J69U), one of Singapore’s largest mall owners, reported that foot traffic fell below 40 percent of its 2019 pre-COVID average, causing it to lose 60 percent of tenant sales.</p><p>Worryingly, at around the same time, online sales as a percentage of Singapore’s total retail had more than quadrupled from 5.8 percent in January to 24.5 percent in May.</p><p>This sharp shift in consumer spending prompted analysts and commentators to suggest that the offline retail landscape had forever been altered and will face a long road to recovery, if at all.</p><p>Yet, today, 30 months later, these scenarios have been revealed to be overly pessimistic.</p><p>While it’s true that the percentage of online sales within Singapore has remained at over two times its pre-pandemic levels, it is nowhere near the doomsday scenarios where shopping malls are rendered completely irrelevant.</p><p>In fact, tenant sales at Fraser Centrepoint Trust’s malls had already exceeded 2019 levels by November 2021 and have remained above the benchmark since then.</p><p>Likewise, the onset of the pandemic normalised the idea of working from home; in the process, raising questions over the role of physical offices in the future.</p><p>There is some merit to these concerns. But it depends on where you work.</p><p>As recently as September 2022, physical occupancy rates in North America were still at half of pre-pandemic levels, according to the World Economic Forum.</p><p>The same cannot be said for Singapore offices.</p><p>According to JLL research, monthly gross rentals in our island nation are close to the pre-pandemic peak and are expected to be sustained at higher levels over the medium term.</p><p>The two examples above are a reminder that we have just lived through a period of extremes.</p><p>As investors, we should recognise that the huge shift online in 2020 followed by the massive move back offline in 2022 are abnormalities and unlikely to recur every year.</p><p>Considering these two extremes as the norm for the future would be a mistake, in my view.</p><p><b>Learn the right lessons</b></p><p>If there was a single villain that caused the 2022 market crash, most would point their finger at rising interest rates.</p><p>But not everyone may be learning the right lesson here.</p><p>In particular, the market crash last year may have persuaded some investors to equate rising interest rates with falling stock prices. This way of thinking may cause them to sell at the next sign of a US Federal Reserve rate hike.</p><p>However, such a conclusion ignores how unusual last year’s interest rate increases have been.</p><p>According to data compiled by the Visual Capitalist, the effective federal funds rate rose past the two percentage mark within six months in 2022, its fastest increase in more than three decades.</p><p>That’s abnormal, to say the least.</p><p>In comparison, the US central bank took as many as 36 months to reach the same rate level in its previous rate hike cycle between December 2015 and December 2018.</p><p>Furthermore, avoiding stocks within this three year period would be a mistake.</p><p>For example, owning in shares such as <b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ: AMZN) and <b>iFAST Corporation</b>(SGX: AIY) would have netted investors returns of 164 per cent and 349 per cent, respectively, if both shares were held from the start of 2016 till the end of 2022.</p><p>Missing out on the basis of misguided beliefs would be detrimental to investors.</p><p><b>Thinking in probabilities</b></p><p>Finally, investors have a tendency of putting too much weight on recent events.</p><p>This bias could be especially egregious after last year’s market crash. Given the beating that investors have taken while holding stocks, some may end up waiting on the sidelines.</p><p>Instead of holding back, investors may want to consider the odds of a market downturn.</p><p>For context, wealth manager Ben Carlson pointed out that 2022’s S&amp;P 500 performance ranks as among its worst years ever in history.</p><p>Last year’s near-20 percent decline is only exceeded by the major market crashes in the past such as the Great Depression in 1930s, the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and the 2002 Dot-Com crash.</p><p>That, in my eyes, is the definition of an abnormality.</p><p>To be clear, it’s not to say that another 20 percent decline is completely out of the question. But what we can say is with every passing year, the odds of a positive outcome increases, based on historical data stretching back to the 1920s.</p><p>Considering the probabilities, I would argue, would be a better way to think about the future, compared to reacting to the stock market’s performance over the past 12 months.</p><p><b>Get Smart: Life-long learning</b></p><p>As the saying goes, the stock market is the Great Humiliator.</p><p>Investors who were over-optimistic two years ago have been left with egg on their faces when 2022 came along. By the same token, I suspect that investors that are over-pessimistic today will also be proven wrong.</p><p>We can’t prove it now, but given time, we may come to see these two contrasting periods for what they are: two extreme periods by historical standards.</p><p>For investors, it’s best not to conclude too early.</p><p>As a lifelong student of investing, I submit that your interest is best served by exercising patience in holding your stocks and learning the right investment lessons.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1602567310727","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investing Lessons for 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvesting Lessons for 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-14 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/investing-lessons-for-2023/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s either been a terrible time or a great time to be owning stocks.A lot depends on when you started investing.Last year, the S&P 500Index sank 19.4 percent, marking its worst performance since 2008...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/investing-lessons-for-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/investing-lessons-for-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169403828","content_text":"It’s either been a terrible time or a great time to be owning stocks.A lot depends on when you started investing.Last year, the S&P 500Index sank 19.4 percent, marking its worst performance since 2008. Investors who put in their money at the start of 2022 would understandably be distraught.Yet, if you lengthen your time horizon, the returns look vastly different.Between 2018 and 2022, the S&P 500 rose by a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5 percent per year, fairly close to the index’s long-term average return of 10 percent per year.Similarly, the lessons you learn from the past 12 months are very different from the conclusions you draw from events that happened years or decades ago.The best lessons, I would argue, come from the latter, and not the former.Livin’ on the edgeWhen confronted with unfamiliar situations, humans have a tendency to dwell on the extremes.For instance, visits to Singapore’s shopping malls were severely curtailed during the 2020 circuit breaker.During that time, Frasers Centrepoint Trust(SGX: J69U), one of Singapore’s largest mall owners, reported that foot traffic fell below 40 percent of its 2019 pre-COVID average, causing it to lose 60 percent of tenant sales.Worryingly, at around the same time, online sales as a percentage of Singapore’s total retail had more than quadrupled from 5.8 percent in January to 24.5 percent in May.This sharp shift in consumer spending prompted analysts and commentators to suggest that the offline retail landscape had forever been altered and will face a long road to recovery, if at all.Yet, today, 30 months later, these scenarios have been revealed to be overly pessimistic.While it’s true that the percentage of online sales within Singapore has remained at over two times its pre-pandemic levels, it is nowhere near the doomsday scenarios where shopping malls are rendered completely irrelevant.In fact, tenant sales at Fraser Centrepoint Trust’s malls had already exceeded 2019 levels by November 2021 and have remained above the benchmark since then.Likewise, the onset of the pandemic normalised the idea of working from home; in the process, raising questions over the role of physical offices in the future.There is some merit to these concerns. But it depends on where you work.As recently as September 2022, physical occupancy rates in North America were still at half of pre-pandemic levels, according to the World Economic Forum.The same cannot be said for Singapore offices.According to JLL research, monthly gross rentals in our island nation are close to the pre-pandemic peak and are expected to be sustained at higher levels over the medium term.The two examples above are a reminder that we have just lived through a period of extremes.As investors, we should recognise that the huge shift online in 2020 followed by the massive move back offline in 2022 are abnormalities and unlikely to recur every year.Considering these two extremes as the norm for the future would be a mistake, in my view.Learn the right lessonsIf there was a single villain that caused the 2022 market crash, most would point their finger at rising interest rates.But not everyone may be learning the right lesson here.In particular, the market crash last year may have persuaded some investors to equate rising interest rates with falling stock prices. This way of thinking may cause them to sell at the next sign of a US Federal Reserve rate hike.However, such a conclusion ignores how unusual last year’s interest rate increases have been.According to data compiled by the Visual Capitalist, the effective federal funds rate rose past the two percentage mark within six months in 2022, its fastest increase in more than three decades.That’s abnormal, to say the least.In comparison, the US central bank took as many as 36 months to reach the same rate level in its previous rate hike cycle between December 2015 and December 2018.Furthermore, avoiding stocks within this three year period would be a mistake.For example, owning in shares such as Amazon(NASDAQ: AMZN) and iFAST Corporation(SGX: AIY) would have netted investors returns of 164 per cent and 349 per cent, respectively, if both shares were held from the start of 2016 till the end of 2022.Missing out on the basis of misguided beliefs would be detrimental to investors.Thinking in probabilitiesFinally, investors have a tendency of putting too much weight on recent events.This bias could be especially egregious after last year’s market crash. Given the beating that investors have taken while holding stocks, some may end up waiting on the sidelines.Instead of holding back, investors may want to consider the odds of a market downturn.For context, wealth manager Ben Carlson pointed out that 2022’s S&P 500 performance ranks as among its worst years ever in history.Last year’s near-20 percent decline is only exceeded by the major market crashes in the past such as the Great Depression in 1930s, the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and the 2002 Dot-Com crash.That, in my eyes, is the definition of an abnormality.To be clear, it’s not to say that another 20 percent decline is completely out of the question. But what we can say is with every passing year, the odds of a positive outcome increases, based on historical data stretching back to the 1920s.Considering the probabilities, I would argue, would be a better way to think about the future, compared to reacting to the stock market’s performance over the past 12 months.Get Smart: Life-long learningAs the saying goes, the stock market is the Great Humiliator.Investors who were over-optimistic two years ago have been left with egg on their faces when 2022 came along. By the same token, I suspect that investors that are over-pessimistic today will also be proven wrong.We can’t prove it now, but given time, we may come to see these two contrasting periods for what they are: two extreme periods by historical standards.For investors, it’s best not to conclude too early.As a lifelong student of investing, I submit that your interest is best served by exercising patience in holding your stocks and learning the right investment lessons.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074861150,"gmtCreate":1658333347570,"gmtModify":1676536142439,"author":{"id":"4088946622416580","authorId":"4088946622416580","name":"happy87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088946622416580","idStr":"4088946622416580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>100","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>100","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074861150","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997165933,"gmtCreate":1661763978625,"gmtModify":1676536574733,"author":{"id":"4088946622416580","authorId":"4088946622416580","name":"happy87","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088946622416580","idStr":"4088946622416580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>395🤩","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>395🤩","text":"$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$395🤩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997165933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}