vj_ql personal page - To The Moon

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2021-08-17

good one

@Ivan_甘灿荣:當心原油的黑天鵝事件，黃金博反彈還早了點

2021-07-30

yes//@vj_ql:Wow

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2021-07-25

Yeah

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2021-07-23

Wow

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2021-07-21

Like

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2021-07-19

ya//@vj_ql:Yes

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2021-07-18

Yes

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2021-07-18

Yes

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2021-07-15

ya//@vj_ql:predictable

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2021-07-15

predictable

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2021-07-13

ok

@美股研究社:盤前全知道|奧本海默稱小摩將打響開門紅，華爾街建議增持FAAMG

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原油的定價主要是三大產油國決定，美國、俄羅斯和OPEC。而自疫情減產以來，美國並未參與且沒表態，而這次突然表態就是個信號。這類消息出來後，無論檯面上怎麼說，私下的會晤不會少（就是條件如何談的問題），而以往，OPEC的沙特還是聽美國的，因此一旦談妥，加速增產不是難事（以當前的高油價，其它國家更不會反對，本來在目前油價仍期望減產的國家也只有沙特）。目前是沒有消息，一旦消息確認絕對是黑天鵝事件。 而根據歷史價格類比，如果此時出現類似的黑天鵝事件，很可能單週會出現10%+的下跌，而後反彈（短期需求仍存在，有便宜貨也會貿易商抄底）。因此當前油價最大風險/機會就在於美國引導下的OPEC增產，總之8月後做多油價要極爲小心，做空的話也就那種黑天鵝機會值得捕捉一下。所以此前建議的賣出原油週期權策略要少做了，畢竟單週跌幅很可能超預期。 二、黃金 黃金是真見底還是暴力反彈？ 相信是很多朋友的疑惑，我傾向於是暴力反彈，持續性存疑。當價格金價跌穿1750時，說明此前很多的預期就需要修正，最少美聯儲縮表對金價的影響不是鬧着玩的。而美聯儲收緊銀根和縮表加息是美元貶值中期的特徵（現場聽課的虎友應該明白我說啥），而貶值中期的過程當中，金價往往是通道式下跌，最好的情況，也只是橫盤調整。 因此，如果我們認爲美聯儲會不加息，甚至負利率的話，那黃金價格仍能上漲","listText":"黃金真的見底還是暴力反彈？原油短線暴動？ 本週末是老虎7週年線下open day活動的廣深站，有感謝老虎的邀請來到會場與各位虎友們分享我的經驗。作爲現場福利，我把我的投資框架和體系給大家進行了展示和總結，感謝各位聆聽的虎友。 線上的朋友也不着急，以後有機會再慢慢展示哈。 迴歸至最近的行情 一、原油 週四晚的直播給大家強調過，原油突發了一個重大潛在風險，就是美國白宮喊話OPEC+加快增產來滿足市場，儘管很快被闢謠且被OPEC懟回去，但空穴來風並非無因。 原油的定價主要是三大產油國決定，美國、俄羅斯和OPEC。而自疫情減產以來，美國並未參與且沒表態，而這次突然表態就是個信號。這類消息出來後，無論檯面上怎麼說，私下的會晤不會少（就是條件如何談的問題），而以往，OPEC的沙特還是聽美國的，因此一旦談妥，加速增產不是難事（以當前的高油價，其它國家更不會反對，本來在目前油價仍期望減產的國家也只有沙特）。目前是沒有消息，一旦消息確認絕對是黑天鵝事件。 而根據歷史價格類比，如果此時出現類似的黑天鵝事件，很可能單週會出現10%+的下跌，而後反彈（短期需求仍存在，有便宜貨也會貿易商抄底）。因此當前油價最大風險/機會就在於美國引導下的OPEC增產，總之8月後做多油價要極爲小心，做空的話也就那種黑天鵝機會值得捕捉一下。所以此前建議的賣出原油週期權策略要少做了，畢竟單週跌幅很可能超預期。 二、黃金 黃金是真見底還是暴力反彈？ 相信是很多朋友的疑惑，我傾向於是暴力反彈，持續性存疑。當價格金價跌穿1750時，說明此前很多的預期就需要修正，最少美聯儲縮表對金價的影響不是鬧着玩的。而美聯儲收緊銀根和縮表加息是美元貶值中期的特徵（現場聽課的虎友應該明白我說啥），而貶值中期的過程當中，金價往往是通道式下跌，最好的情況，也只是橫盤調整。 因此，如果我們認爲美聯儲會不加息，甚至負利率的話，那黃金價格仍能上漲","text":"黃金真的見底還是暴力反彈？原油短線暴動？ 本週末是老虎7週年線下open day活動的廣深站，有感謝老虎的邀請來到會場與各位虎友們分享我的經驗。作爲現場福利，我把我的投資框架和體系給大家進行了展示和總結，感謝各位聆聽的虎友。 線上的朋友也不着急，以後有機會再慢慢展示哈。 迴歸至最近的行情 一、原油 週四晚的直播給大家強調過，原油突發了一個重大潛在風險，就是美國白宮喊話OPEC+加快增產來滿足市場，儘管很快被闢謠且被OPEC懟回去，但空穴來風並非無因。 原油的定價主要是三大產油國決定，美國、俄羅斯和OPEC。而自疫情減產以來，美國並未參與且沒表態，而這次突然表態就是個信號。這類消息出來後，無論檯面上怎麼說，私下的會晤不會少（就是條件如何談的問題），而以往，OPEC的沙特還是聽美國的，因此一旦談妥，加速增產不是難事（以當前的高油價，其它國家更不會反對，本來在目前油價仍期望減產的國家也只有沙特）。目前是沒有消息，一旦消息確認絕對是黑天鵝事件。 而根據歷史價格類比，如果此時出現類似的黑天鵝事件，很可能單週會出現10%+的下跌，而後反彈（短期需求仍存在，有便宜貨也會貿易商抄底）。因此當前油價最大風險/機會就在於美國引導下的OPEC增產，總之8月後做多油價要極爲小心，做空的話也就那種黑天鵝機會值得捕捉一下。所以此前建議的賣出原油週期權策略要少做了，畢竟單週跌幅很可能超預期。 二、黃金 黃金是真見底還是暴力反彈？ 相信是很多朋友的疑惑，我傾向於是暴力反彈，持續性存疑。當價格金價跌穿1750時，說明此前很多的預期就需要修正，最少美聯儲縮表對金價的影響不是鬧着玩的。而美聯儲收緊銀根和縮表加息是美元貶值中期的特徵（現場聽課的虎友應該明白我說啥），而貶值中期的過程當中，金價往往是通道式下跌，最好的情況，也只是橫盤調整。 因此，如果我們認爲美聯儲會不加息，甚至負利率的話，那黃金價格仍能上漲","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f60833ad10cdfda8a0640829a2b93d86","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8dd55dfc2876e922428e45b8991807","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2797225ce053507b5f39b39c8e8a9f","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830559635","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806364188,"gmtCreate":1627633732744,"gmtModify":1703493773200,"author":{"id":"4089069910449480","authorId":"4089069910449480","authorIdStr":"4089069910449480","name":"vj_ql","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089069910449480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes//<a 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46%。華爾街：未來5年科技行業仍十分強勁，建議增持FAAMG據財聯社報道，當地時間週一（12日），華爾街知名投資管理機構伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）發佈報告稱，預計未來5年科技行業的增長仍將非常強勁，與歷史相比，科技公司內部的擁擠程度仍然很低，建議投資者增持FAAMG股票。伯恩斯坦分析師Toni Sacconaghi週一在報告稱，今年上半年，資金從科技股轉向價值股的趨勢更爲明顯。但總的來說，伯恩斯坦仍看好整個科技板塊。2、熱點全知道美聯儲三號人物：尚未到縮減QE時機，擔心「平均通脹目標制」導致快速加息沒根據據富途報道，紐約聯儲主席威廉姆斯表示，擔憂美聯儲「平均通脹目標制」最後將導致快速加息是沒有根據的。美聯儲購買國債和抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）都有助於降低住房成本，他同時表示，現在縮減QE時機未到","listText":"1、機構怎麼看美股摩根士丹利：科技股估值令人想起互聯網泡沫時期據報道，摩根士丹利在研報中寫道，大型科技和互聯網股的估值處於「極端」水平，市場修正10%至15%的可能性正在上升。低利率和經濟增長的堅實背景推動科技行業的股價/銷售比「達到2000年互聯網泡沫高峯時的水平」。「問題是科技行業的盈利能力和利潤狀況脆弱」。大摩補充說，投入成本上升、美元走軟、競爭加劇、稅率上升、監管加強和客戶阻力給該行業帶來了「前所未有的挑戰」。Oppenheimer分析師：小摩將打響財報季開門紅據CNBC報道，未來幾天，高盛、摩根大通、花旗集團和美國銀行將率先發布財報。Oppenheimer技術分析主管Wald表示，投資者在投資銀行股時應該慎重。在這些銀行股中，Wald更看好摩根大通(JPM.US)，不看好富國銀行(WFC.US)。自去年11月以來，摩根大通一直表現不佳，但富國銀行卻相反，Wald認爲摩根大通即將崛起。摩根大通在2021年上漲了24%，優於銀行股市場的總體表現。相比之下，富國銀行上漲了 46%。華爾街：未來5年科技行業仍十分強勁，建議增持FAAMG據財聯社報道，當地時間週一（12日），華爾街知名投資管理機構伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）發佈報告稱，預計未來5年科技行業的增長仍將非常強勁，與歷史相比，科技公司內部的擁擠程度仍然很低，建議投資者增持FAAMG股票。伯恩斯坦分析師Toni 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