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Huhu88

Huhu88

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2021-08-23

Nice article. Thanks for sharing.

3 Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks Begging to Be Bought

2021-08-18

Nice

3 Stocks I'm Never Selling

2022-04-23

Thanks

Alibaba Vs. Amazon Stock: Back To Fundamentals

2021-08-22

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Benzinga's Bulls And Bears Of The Week: Apple, Bitcoin, Microsoft, Robinhood, Walmart And More

2021-08-18

Nice

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2022-03-27

Thanks

Alphabet Vs. Meta: One Is The Much Better Buy

2021-09-19

?

7 ways men live without working in America

2021-08-23

Good

Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, personal income and spending: What to know this week

2022-09-13

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2022-01-15

Thank you

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2021-09-19

?

S&P 500 closes below a key bullish trend line for the first time since June, signaling bearish tilt

2022-02-01

👍

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2022-01-17

Thanks

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2022-01-16

Thanks

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2021-09-23

Finally

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2021-08-22

Go!

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2021-08-17

Good chance

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2022-08-19

Great

@JC888:$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Blue chip is blue chip. Android for 5G mobile will be one of its its nxt growth component?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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I would like to share it.","listText":"Great article! I would like to share it.","text":"Great article! I would like to share it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935773454","repostId":"9935748690","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9935748690,"gmtCreate":1663147198711,"gmtModify":1676537214196,"author":{"id":"4119072940563712","authorId":"4119072940563712","name":"TradingLounge","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3847b140dde3f0115931dbd158233e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4119072940563712","authorIdStr":"4119072940563712"},"themes":[],"title":"Pepsico Inc.(PEP:NASDAQ) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis September 14 2022","htmlText":"Pepsico Inc., Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPepsico Inc.,(PEP:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, September 14 2022,&nbsp;PEPStock Market Analysis:Moving as expected from the previous forecast. Looking at this point for a potential pivotal point to be found within a few days.PEP Elliott Wave count:&nbsp;&nbsp;{c} of 2.PEPTrading Strategy:Waiting for a bottom in place for wave 2 and upside resumption.PEPTechnical Indicators:We past the point of control, however we have strong volume slightly below of where we stand now.TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio BarrettaPepsico Inc.,TTD: 4-hour Chart, September 14 2022Pepsico Inc.,Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPEP Stock Market Analysis: Perhaps we are just in wave (iii) of {c} therefore I would be expecting further downside.PEPElliott Wave count:&nbsp;(iii) of {c}.","listText":"Pepsico Inc., Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPepsico Inc.,(PEP:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, September 14 2022,&nbsp;PEPStock Market Analysis:Moving as expected from the previous forecast. Looking at this point for a potential pivotal point to be found within a few days.PEP Elliott Wave count:&nbsp;&nbsp;{c} of 2.PEPTrading Strategy:Waiting for a bottom in place for wave 2 and upside resumption.PEPTechnical Indicators:We past the point of control, however we have strong volume slightly below of where we stand now.TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio BarrettaPepsico Inc.,TTD: 4-hour Chart, September 14 2022Pepsico Inc.,Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPEP Stock Market Analysis: Perhaps we are just in wave (iii) of {c} therefore I would be expecting further downside.PEPElliott Wave count:&nbsp;(iii) of {c}.","text":"Pepsico Inc., Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPepsico Inc.,(PEP:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, September 14 2022, PEPStock Market Analysis:Moving as expected from the previous forecast. Looking at this point for a potential pivotal point to be found within a few days.PEP Elliott Wave count: {c} of 2.PEPTrading Strategy:Waiting for a bottom in place for wave 2 and upside resumption.PEPTechnical Indicators:We past the point of control, however we have strong volume slightly below of where we stand now.TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio BarrettaPepsico Inc.,TTD: 4-hour Chart, September 14 2022Pepsico Inc.,Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisPEP Stock Market Analysis: Perhaps we are just in wave (iii) of {c} therefore I would be expecting further downside.PEPElliott Wave count: (iii) of {c}.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/270574e908998daa66fc57df5cf98f2a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935748690","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935880274,"gmtCreate":1663066631199,"gmtModify":1676537195012,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935880274","repostId":"1103196069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103196069","pubTimestamp":1663059438,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103196069?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-13 16:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Peloton, Oracle, Planet Labs And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103196069","media":"Benzinga","summary":"With US stock futures trading higher this morning on Tuesday, some of the stocks that may grab inves","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>With US stock futures trading higher this morning on Tuesday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:</p><ul><li><b>Peloton</b> slid over 2% in premarket trading; its co-founder John Foley and other senior leaders are leaving the company in a management shake-up as the maker of connected exercise equipment races to turn itself around</li></ul><ul><li>Wall Street expects <b>Core &amp; Main, Inc.</b> to report quarterly earnings at $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.63 billion. Core &amp; Main shares gained 3.7% to $25.40 in after-hours trading.</li><li><b>Oracle Corporation</b> posted downbeat earnings for its first quarter. However, the company issued positive commentary on revenue growth expectations for the coming quarters. Oracle shares gained 1.4% to $78.19 in the pre-market trading session.</li><li>Analysts expect <b>Evolution Petroleum Corporation</b> to post quarterly earnings $0.41 per share on revenue of $38.18 million for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close.</li></ul><ul><li><b>Planet Labs PBC</b> reported better-than-expected Q2 results and boosted its FY23 sales guidance. Planet Labs shares jumped 10.5% to $5.99 in the pre-market trading session.</li><li><b>Codiak BioSciences, Inc.</b> reported pricing of $20 million public offering of common stock and warrants. Codiak BioSciences shares dipped 12.6% to $1.46 in pre-market trading.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Peloton, Oracle, Planet Labs And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPeloton, Oracle, Planet Labs And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-13 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/09/28842395/core-main-planet-labs-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-tuesday><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With US stock futures trading higher this morning on Tuesday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Peloton slid over 2% in premarket trading; its co-founder John Foley ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/09/28842395/core-main-planet-labs-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-tuesday\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CNM":"Core & Main, Inc.","PL":"Planet  Labs Pbc","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","ORCL":"甲骨文","EPM":"Evolution Petroleum"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/09/28842395/core-main-planet-labs-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-tuesday","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103196069","content_text":"With US stock futures trading higher this morning on Tuesday, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Peloton slid over 2% in premarket trading; its co-founder John Foley and other senior leaders are leaving the company in a management shake-up as the maker of connected exercise equipment races to turn itself aroundWall Street expects Core & Main, Inc. to report quarterly earnings at $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.63 billion. Core & Main shares gained 3.7% to $25.40 in after-hours trading.Oracle Corporation posted downbeat earnings for its first quarter. However, the company issued positive commentary on revenue growth expectations for the coming quarters. Oracle shares gained 1.4% to $78.19 in the pre-market trading session.Analysts expect Evolution Petroleum Corporation to post quarterly earnings $0.41 per share on revenue of $38.18 million for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close.Planet Labs PBC reported better-than-expected Q2 results and boosted its FY23 sales guidance. Planet Labs shares jumped 10.5% to $5.99 in the pre-market trading session.Codiak BioSciences, Inc. reported pricing of $20 million public offering of common stock and warrants. Codiak BioSciences shares dipped 12.6% to $1.46 in pre-market trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933056314,"gmtCreate":1662182690038,"gmtModify":1676537015163,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933056314","repostId":"9939777676","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9939777676,"gmtCreate":1662172963395,"gmtModify":1676537012881,"author":{"id":"4117780656658592","authorId":"4117780656658592","name":"Puru chan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e4b5965ef78ff7ef03c21d8eafd995","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117780656658592","authorIdStr":"4117780656658592"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>New restrictions on exports of cutting-edge chips from Nvidia Corp to China have signaled an escalation of the U.S. crackdown on Beijing's technological prowess and alarmed investors already worried about an industry downturn.Shares of Nvidia fell 11% to $133.46 on Thursday, wiping out more than $40 billion in market value and dragging the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index down by more than 4%.The U.S. move to restrict exports of two of Nvidia's top computing chips for artificial intelligence - the H100 and A100 - to China could hurt the company's business in the key market, according to a filing on Wednesday.The action by Washington comes as tensions rise over access to advanced chip technology and the future of Taiwan, where","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>New restrictions on exports of cutting-edge chips from Nvidia Corp to China have signaled an escalation of the U.S. crackdown on Beijing's technological prowess and alarmed investors already worried about an industry downturn.Shares of Nvidia fell 11% to $133.46 on Thursday, wiping out more than $40 billion in market value and dragging the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index down by more than 4%.The U.S. move to restrict exports of two of Nvidia's top computing chips for artificial intelligence - the H100 and A100 - to China could hurt the company's business in the key market, according to a filing on Wednesday.The action by Washington comes as tensions rise over access to advanced chip technology and the future of Taiwan, where","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$New restrictions on exports of cutting-edge chips from Nvidia Corp to China have signaled an escalation of the U.S. crackdown on Beijing's technological prowess and alarmed investors already worried about an industry downturn.Shares of Nvidia fell 11% to $133.46 on Thursday, wiping out more than $40 billion in market value and dragging the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index down by more than 4%.The U.S. move to restrict exports of two of Nvidia's top computing chips for artificial intelligence - the H100 and A100 - to China could hurt the company's business in the key market, according to a filing on Wednesday.The action by Washington comes as tensions rise over access to advanced chip technology and the future of Taiwan, where","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33d74ae4ba7cb5d363ffc0919ba8ed2c","width":"750","height":"1550"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939777676","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998958710,"gmtCreate":1660922026233,"gmtModify":1676536424154,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998958710","repostId":"9998950363","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9998950363,"gmtCreate":1660921533655,"gmtModify":1676536424031,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorIdStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$</a>&nbsp;Blue chip is blue chip.&nbsp; Android for 5G mobile&nbsp;will be one of its&nbsp;its nxt growth component?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$</a>&nbsp;Blue chip is blue chip.&nbsp; Android for 5G mobile&nbsp;will be one of its&nbsp;its nxt growth component?&nbsp;","text":"$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Blue chip is blue chip. Android for 5G mobile will be one of its its nxt growth component?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/21002c2662fd4a81ebd4839ef1d6db8a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998950363","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906116082,"gmtCreate":1659494992349,"gmtModify":1705980997955,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906116082","repostId":"1135966025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135966025","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659494212,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135966025?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-03 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tiger Chart | Big Tech Earnings Recap: Tesla's Net Profit Soars, and Amazon Is the King of Cash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135966025","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Big Tech earnings are coming to an end. Tesla's net profit soars, and Amazon is the king of cash.The","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Big Tech earnings are coming to an end. Tesla&#39;s net profit soars, and Amazon is the king of cash.</p><p>The latest earnings are that Microsoft and Google reported stable revenue growth and margins that are unchanged from recent macro conditions. The strong margins were especially welcomed as many companies have been missing on operating margins and cash flow. Meanwhile, Microsoft delivered free cash flow of $17.8 billion and net profits of $16.7 billion along with upbeat guidance for the year. Similarly, Google reported strong free cash flow of $12.6 billion and net profits of $16 billion in the recent quarter.</p><p>The same was not true for Meta, which primarily stumbled on its Q3 guide. The company reported its first decline in revenue in company history and guidance for next quarter missed due to FX headwinds. Analyst expectations for Q3 were for $30.4 billion, or 5% growth. Instead, the company guided for $26 billion to $28.5 billion, or a YoY decline of 6% at the mid-point of the guidance with the current exchange rates creating a 6% headwind.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78210f275c8b6655199e86f675fc4852\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1407\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Amazon: Consumer Demand Resile</b></p><p>Amazon.com Inc said it expects a jump in third-quarter revenue, as the retailer collects bigger fees from Prime loyalty subscriptions and as consumer demand remained high in spite of rising inflation.</p><p>Amazon, like much of the retail industry, is facing a reckoning. Major rival Walmart Inc this week said it would make much less this year than it once expected. U.S. consumer confidence has tumbled to a recent low, and some are sticking to lower-priced essentials to manage economic woes.</p><p>That has not stopped Amazon. The online retailer projected net sales between $125 billion and $130 billion for the summer period, while analysts were expecting only $126.42 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p>Still, sales growth has slowed year-over-year in some of the retailer&#39;s business segments. In North America, the company&#39;s largest market, net sales climbed 10% in the just-ended second quarter, compared with a 22% gain in the same period a year ago. Its international unit saw an outright decline of 12%.</p><p><b>Apple: Strong results despite challenges</b></p><p>Apple released strong results despite the challenging macro environment, strong US dollar, and supply chain issues. Revenue grew by 1.9% YoY to $83 billion, which was in-line with the analysts&#39; estimates. It reported EPS of $1.20, which beat estimates by $0.04 (4% beat).</p><p>The product segment revenue declined marginally by 0.9% YoY to $63.4 billion and the services segment revenue grew by 12% YoY to $19.6 billion. The company’s installed base of active devices reached an all-time high. It had more than 860 million of paid subscriptions, up 160 million in the past year.</p><p>The company did not give exact revenue guidance for the next quarter. Tim Cook, CEO of the company, said in the earnings call,<i>“We’re going to accelerate revenues in the September quarter as compared to the June quarter and will decelerate on the Services side.”</i></p><p>The company’s gross margin was 43.26%, compared to 43.75% in the previous quarter and 43.29% in the same period last year. It was above the management’s guidance of 42% to 43%.</p><p>Net income was $19.4 billion or $1.20 per share compared to $21.7 billion or $1.30 per share in the same period last year. It beat the analysts&#39; EPS estimates by $0.04.</p><p>The company had cash and marketable securities of $179 billion and a debt of $120 billion. The company reported strong operating cash flows of $23 billion (28% of revenue). The company returned over $28 billion to the shareholders in the recent quarter in the form of dividends and share repurchases.</p><p><b>Tesla: Profit</b> <b>Beats Estimates, Keeps 50% Output Growth Target</b></p><p>Tesla on Wednesday reported a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit, helped by a string of price increases for its cars, which Elon Musk later said were &#34;embarrassingly high&#34; and could hurt demand.</p><p>Tesla also sold a majority of its bitcoin holdings, which led to smaller-than-expected impairment charges caused by a decline in the value of the cryptocurrency, analysts said.</p><p>Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn said Tesla was still pushing to reach 50% growth in deliveries this year, adding that while the target had become more difficult, &#34;it remains possible with strong execution.&#34;</p><p>Tesla&#39;s China factory ended the second quarter with a record monthly production level, after being forced to shut down due to COVID-19 related lockdowns.</p><p>Musk said new factories in Berlin and Texas aimed to produce 5,000 cars a week by the end of the year, adding that Berlin produced 1,000 cars a week in June. He had previously said the new factories were &#34;gigantic money furnaces.&#34;</p><p>The EV maker posted an adjusted profit of $2.27 per share for the second quarter ended June versus analysts&#39; consensus estimates of $1.81.</p><p>Automotive gross margin fell to 27.9%, down from a year earlier and the preceding quarter.</p><p>Total revenue fell to $16.93 billion from $18.76 billion a quarter earlier, ending its streak of posting record revenue in recent quarters. Analysts expected $17.10 billion, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><b>Alphabet: Search is Resilient</b></p><p>The company reported revenue of 13%, or 16% in constant currency, for a total of $69.7 billion. The operating margin was flat year-over-year, which is a win. Operating expenses grew 24% yet the operating margin was in line with previous quarters at 28% for $19.58 billion in operating income.</p><p>The net margin was a bit weaker than previous quarters in 2021 at $16 billion yet in line with last quarter. The company has free cash flow of $12.6 billion. The company has $125 billion in cash and marketable securities. The company reported EPS of $1.21 compared to $1.36 for the same period last year.</p><p>Search was stable given the current environment at 13.5% growth to $40 billion and this provided relief that not all ad spend has been paused. Search was strong last quarter at 24% growth to $40 billion, and was flat sequentially in terms of total dollar amount.</p><p>The effects of Google’s large R&amp;D department and advances in AI cannot be overstated when it comes to the resiliency of Search in the current environment. We are getting a very slight glimpse of what’s to come for Google in terms of its advertising dominance.</p><p>The expectations were that YouTube would weigh on the report yet YouTube provided a bit of growth at 5% year-over-year. The company was adamant that YouTube growth is low because of the tough comps. The tough comps was touched on many times, such as this: “the modest year-on-year growth rate primarily reflects lapping the uniquely strong performance in the second quarter of 2021.”</p><p>Notably, Google Cloud slowed to 35.6% growth down from 43.8% growth last quarter. This means Google Cloud is growing slower than Azure on a lower revenue base. This is something to monitor in the future.</p><p><b>Microsoft: Double-Digit Guide for FY2023</b></p><p>Many tech companies are declining to give guidance while Microsoft’s management provided strong guidance in both Q1 FY2023 and for FY2023. For Q1 FY2023, management provided a 10% guide across product lines for next quarter (this includes FX headwinds) and also provided guidance for fiscal year 2023 ending in June: “We continue to expect double-digit revenue and operating income growth in both constant currency and U.S. dollars. Revenue growth will be driven by continued momentum in our commercial business and a focus on share gains across our portfolio.”</p><p>Revenue grew by 12% YoY to $51.9 billion (missed Wall Street analysts&#39; estimates by 0.94%) and EPS came at $2.23 (missed estimates by 2.9%). The strong US dollar negatively impacted the revenue by $595 million and EPS by $0.04. Microsoft Cloud revenue grew by 28% YoY to $25 billion. The company’s results are good considering the various macro uncertainties, China lockdown, and the strong US dollar. FY2022 revenue grew by 18% YoY to $198.3 billion and net income increased by 19% YoY to $72.7 billion.</p><p>The company’s gross income increased 10% YoY to $35.4 billion. The gross margin decreased by 147 bps to 68.2% when compared to the same period last year. Excluding the impact from the change in the accounting estimate, the gross margin was relatively unchanged.</p><p>The operating income increased by 8% YoY to $20.5 billion. The operating margin decreased by 187 bps to 39.5%. Excluding the impact from the change in the accounting estimate and FX, the operating margin would be relatively unchanged.</p><p>The company’s cash flows continued to be strong in the recent quarter. Cash from operations grew by 8% YoY to $24.6 billion (47% of revenue) and free cash flow increased by 9% YoY to $17.8 billion (34% of revenue). The company has cash and investments of $104.8 billion and debt of $49.8 billion.</p><p>Despite weakness in PCs, the company’s other segments continue to grow. Intelligent Cloud grew 20% YoY to $20.9 billion and Productivity and Business Processes segment grew 13% YoY to $16.6 billion.</p><p>The company also made an accounting change in the useful life for server and network equipment assets from four to six years which will extend the depreciation expenses for the company.</p><p>Amy Hood said in the earnings call, “<i>First, effective at the start of FY &#39;23, we are extending the depreciable useful life for server and network equipment assets in our cloud infrastructure from 4 to 6 years, which will apply to the asset balances on our balance sheet as of June 30, 2022, as well as future asset purchases.</i></p><p><i>As a result, based on the outstanding balances as of June 30, we expect fiscal year &#39;23 operating income to be favorably impacted by approximately $3.7 billion for the full fiscal year and approximately $1.1 billion in the first quarter.”</i></p><p><b>Meta: Misses Q3 Expectations</b></p><p>The market does not need a perfect quarter for Q2 given the numerous headwinds facing tech companies. What the market does need is a sign that a company may have bottomed and is able to guide growth (even if minimal) from Q2-Q3.</p><p>In Q2, Meta’s revenue declined for the first time in history. This was expected. However, what was not expected was the lower guide for the next quarter. The company guided for $26 billion to $28.5 billion, or a YoY decline of 6% at the mid-point of the guidance. The guidance takes into consideration the weak advertising demand the company experienced in the recent quarter and also the foreign exchange headwinds of 6%. The investors were expecting a return of growth in the next quarter.</p><p>The company had a slight beat on DAUs at 1.97 billion versus 1.96 billion expected. Monthly users were 2.93 billion slightly missed expectations of 2.94 billion.</p><p>Operating expenses rose 22% YoY to $20.4 billion. This led to the drop in the operating margin to 29% in the recent quarter compared to 43% in the same period last year. It also led to the 36% YoY drop in the net income to $6.69 billion. The EPS came at $2.46 compared to $3.61 in Q2 2021.</p><p>The company is looking to further reduce the operating expenses for the year to $85 billion to $88 billion from the last quarter guidance of $87 billion to $92 million and the prior estimate of $90 billion to $95 billion.</p><p><b>Netflix: Customer Growth Forecast Eases Wall Street Concerns</b></p><p>Netflix averted its own worst-case scenario of subscriber losses, posting a nearly 1 million drop from April through June, and predicted it would return to customer growth during the third quarter.</p><p>Investors took the forecast as a signal that Netflix could still find new subscribers despite a rocky global economy and signs of saturation in its biggest market, the United States and Canada.</p><p>Netflix lost 1.3 million customers in the United States and Canada in the second quarter, and 770,000 in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. That was offset by a gain of nearly 1.1 million members in the Asia/Pacific region.</p><p>Netflix remains the dominant streaming service with nearly 221 million global paid subscribers. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said the company still sees room for &#34;enormous&#34; growth by attracting many of the billions of people worldwide who have yet to sign up.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Chart | Big Tech Earnings Recap: Tesla's Net Profit Soars, and Amazon Is the King of Cash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Chart | Big Tech Earnings Recap: Tesla's Net Profit Soars, and Amazon Is the King of Cash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-03 10:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Big Tech earnings are coming to an end. Tesla&#39;s net profit soars, and Amazon is the king of cash.</p><p>The latest earnings are that Microsoft and Google reported stable revenue growth and margins that are unchanged from recent macro conditions. The strong margins were especially welcomed as many companies have been missing on operating margins and cash flow. Meanwhile, Microsoft delivered free cash flow of $17.8 billion and net profits of $16.7 billion along with upbeat guidance for the year. Similarly, Google reported strong free cash flow of $12.6 billion and net profits of $16 billion in the recent quarter.</p><p>The same was not true for Meta, which primarily stumbled on its Q3 guide. The company reported its first decline in revenue in company history and guidance for next quarter missed due to FX headwinds. Analyst expectations for Q3 were for $30.4 billion, or 5% growth. Instead, the company guided for $26 billion to $28.5 billion, or a YoY decline of 6% at the mid-point of the guidance with the current exchange rates creating a 6% headwind.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78210f275c8b6655199e86f675fc4852\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1407\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Amazon: Consumer Demand Resile</b></p><p>Amazon.com Inc said it expects a jump in third-quarter revenue, as the retailer collects bigger fees from Prime loyalty subscriptions and as consumer demand remained high in spite of rising inflation.</p><p>Amazon, like much of the retail industry, is facing a reckoning. Major rival Walmart Inc this week said it would make much less this year than it once expected. U.S. consumer confidence has tumbled to a recent low, and some are sticking to lower-priced essentials to manage economic woes.</p><p>That has not stopped Amazon. The online retailer projected net sales between $125 billion and $130 billion for the summer period, while analysts were expecting only $126.42 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p>Still, sales growth has slowed year-over-year in some of the retailer&#39;s business segments. In North America, the company&#39;s largest market, net sales climbed 10% in the just-ended second quarter, compared with a 22% gain in the same period a year ago. Its international unit saw an outright decline of 12%.</p><p><b>Apple: Strong results despite challenges</b></p><p>Apple released strong results despite the challenging macro environment, strong US dollar, and supply chain issues. Revenue grew by 1.9% YoY to $83 billion, which was in-line with the analysts&#39; estimates. It reported EPS of $1.20, which beat estimates by $0.04 (4% beat).</p><p>The product segment revenue declined marginally by 0.9% YoY to $63.4 billion and the services segment revenue grew by 12% YoY to $19.6 billion. The company’s installed base of active devices reached an all-time high. It had more than 860 million of paid subscriptions, up 160 million in the past year.</p><p>The company did not give exact revenue guidance for the next quarter. Tim Cook, CEO of the company, said in the earnings call,<i>“We’re going to accelerate revenues in the September quarter as compared to the June quarter and will decelerate on the Services side.”</i></p><p>The company’s gross margin was 43.26%, compared to 43.75% in the previous quarter and 43.29% in the same period last year. It was above the management’s guidance of 42% to 43%.</p><p>Net income was $19.4 billion or $1.20 per share compared to $21.7 billion or $1.30 per share in the same period last year. It beat the analysts&#39; EPS estimates by $0.04.</p><p>The company had cash and marketable securities of $179 billion and a debt of $120 billion. The company reported strong operating cash flows of $23 billion (28% of revenue). The company returned over $28 billion to the shareholders in the recent quarter in the form of dividends and share repurchases.</p><p><b>Tesla: Profit</b> <b>Beats Estimates, Keeps 50% Output Growth Target</b></p><p>Tesla on Wednesday reported a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit, helped by a string of price increases for its cars, which Elon Musk later said were &#34;embarrassingly high&#34; and could hurt demand.</p><p>Tesla also sold a majority of its bitcoin holdings, which led to smaller-than-expected impairment charges caused by a decline in the value of the cryptocurrency, analysts said.</p><p>Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn said Tesla was still pushing to reach 50% growth in deliveries this year, adding that while the target had become more difficult, &#34;it remains possible with strong execution.&#34;</p><p>Tesla&#39;s China factory ended the second quarter with a record monthly production level, after being forced to shut down due to COVID-19 related lockdowns.</p><p>Musk said new factories in Berlin and Texas aimed to produce 5,000 cars a week by the end of the year, adding that Berlin produced 1,000 cars a week in June. He had previously said the new factories were &#34;gigantic money furnaces.&#34;</p><p>The EV maker posted an adjusted profit of $2.27 per share for the second quarter ended June versus analysts&#39; consensus estimates of $1.81.</p><p>Automotive gross margin fell to 27.9%, down from a year earlier and the preceding quarter.</p><p>Total revenue fell to $16.93 billion from $18.76 billion a quarter earlier, ending its streak of posting record revenue in recent quarters. Analysts expected $17.10 billion, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><b>Alphabet: Search is Resilient</b></p><p>The company reported revenue of 13%, or 16% in constant currency, for a total of $69.7 billion. The operating margin was flat year-over-year, which is a win. Operating expenses grew 24% yet the operating margin was in line with previous quarters at 28% for $19.58 billion in operating income.</p><p>The net margin was a bit weaker than previous quarters in 2021 at $16 billion yet in line with last quarter. The company has free cash flow of $12.6 billion. The company has $125 billion in cash and marketable securities. The company reported EPS of $1.21 compared to $1.36 for the same period last year.</p><p>Search was stable given the current environment at 13.5% growth to $40 billion and this provided relief that not all ad spend has been paused. Search was strong last quarter at 24% growth to $40 billion, and was flat sequentially in terms of total dollar amount.</p><p>The effects of Google’s large R&amp;D department and advances in AI cannot be overstated when it comes to the resiliency of Search in the current environment. We are getting a very slight glimpse of what’s to come for Google in terms of its advertising dominance.</p><p>The expectations were that YouTube would weigh on the report yet YouTube provided a bit of growth at 5% year-over-year. The company was adamant that YouTube growth is low because of the tough comps. The tough comps was touched on many times, such as this: “the modest year-on-year growth rate primarily reflects lapping the uniquely strong performance in the second quarter of 2021.”</p><p>Notably, Google Cloud slowed to 35.6% growth down from 43.8% growth last quarter. This means Google Cloud is growing slower than Azure on a lower revenue base. This is something to monitor in the future.</p><p><b>Microsoft: Double-Digit Guide for FY2023</b></p><p>Many tech companies are declining to give guidance while Microsoft’s management provided strong guidance in both Q1 FY2023 and for FY2023. For Q1 FY2023, management provided a 10% guide across product lines for next quarter (this includes FX headwinds) and also provided guidance for fiscal year 2023 ending in June: “We continue to expect double-digit revenue and operating income growth in both constant currency and U.S. dollars. Revenue growth will be driven by continued momentum in our commercial business and a focus on share gains across our portfolio.”</p><p>Revenue grew by 12% YoY to $51.9 billion (missed Wall Street analysts&#39; estimates by 0.94%) and EPS came at $2.23 (missed estimates by 2.9%). The strong US dollar negatively impacted the revenue by $595 million and EPS by $0.04. Microsoft Cloud revenue grew by 28% YoY to $25 billion. The company’s results are good considering the various macro uncertainties, China lockdown, and the strong US dollar. FY2022 revenue grew by 18% YoY to $198.3 billion and net income increased by 19% YoY to $72.7 billion.</p><p>The company’s gross income increased 10% YoY to $35.4 billion. The gross margin decreased by 147 bps to 68.2% when compared to the same period last year. Excluding the impact from the change in the accounting estimate, the gross margin was relatively unchanged.</p><p>The operating income increased by 8% YoY to $20.5 billion. The operating margin decreased by 187 bps to 39.5%. Excluding the impact from the change in the accounting estimate and FX, the operating margin would be relatively unchanged.</p><p>The company’s cash flows continued to be strong in the recent quarter. Cash from operations grew by 8% YoY to $24.6 billion (47% of revenue) and free cash flow increased by 9% YoY to $17.8 billion (34% of revenue). The company has cash and investments of $104.8 billion and debt of $49.8 billion.</p><p>Despite weakness in PCs, the company’s other segments continue to grow. Intelligent Cloud grew 20% YoY to $20.9 billion and Productivity and Business Processes segment grew 13% YoY to $16.6 billion.</p><p>The company also made an accounting change in the useful life for server and network equipment assets from four to six years which will extend the depreciation expenses for the company.</p><p>Amy Hood said in the earnings call, “<i>First, effective at the start of FY &#39;23, we are extending the depreciable useful life for server and network equipment assets in our cloud infrastructure from 4 to 6 years, which will apply to the asset balances on our balance sheet as of June 30, 2022, as well as future asset purchases.</i></p><p><i>As a result, based on the outstanding balances as of June 30, we expect fiscal year &#39;23 operating income to be favorably impacted by approximately $3.7 billion for the full fiscal year and approximately $1.1 billion in the first quarter.”</i></p><p><b>Meta: Misses Q3 Expectations</b></p><p>The market does not need a perfect quarter for Q2 given the numerous headwinds facing tech companies. What the market does need is a sign that a company may have bottomed and is able to guide growth (even if minimal) from Q2-Q3.</p><p>In Q2, Meta’s revenue declined for the first time in history. This was expected. However, what was not expected was the lower guide for the next quarter. The company guided for $26 billion to $28.5 billion, or a YoY decline of 6% at the mid-point of the guidance. The guidance takes into consideration the weak advertising demand the company experienced in the recent quarter and also the foreign exchange headwinds of 6%. The investors were expecting a return of growth in the next quarter.</p><p>The company had a slight beat on DAUs at 1.97 billion versus 1.96 billion expected. Monthly users were 2.93 billion slightly missed expectations of 2.94 billion.</p><p>Operating expenses rose 22% YoY to $20.4 billion. This led to the drop in the operating margin to 29% in the recent quarter compared to 43% in the same period last year. It also led to the 36% YoY drop in the net income to $6.69 billion. The EPS came at $2.46 compared to $3.61 in Q2 2021.</p><p>The company is looking to further reduce the operating expenses for the year to $85 billion to $88 billion from the last quarter guidance of $87 billion to $92 million and the prior estimate of $90 billion to $95 billion.</p><p><b>Netflix: Customer Growth Forecast Eases Wall Street Concerns</b></p><p>Netflix averted its own worst-case scenario of subscriber losses, posting a nearly 1 million drop from April through June, and predicted it would return to customer growth during the third quarter.</p><p>Investors took the forecast as a signal that Netflix could still find new subscribers despite a rocky global economy and signs of saturation in its biggest market, the United States and Canada.</p><p>Netflix lost 1.3 million customers in the United States and Canada in the second quarter, and 770,000 in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. That was offset by a gain of nearly 1.1 million members in the Asia/Pacific region.</p><p>Netflix remains the dominant streaming service with nearly 221 million global paid subscribers. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said the company still sees room for &#34;enormous&#34; growth by attracting many of the billions of people worldwide who have yet to sign up.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","TSLA":"特斯拉","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AMZN":"亚马逊","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135966025","content_text":"Big Tech earnings are coming to an end. Tesla's net profit soars, and Amazon is the king of cash.The latest earnings are that Microsoft and Google reported stable revenue growth and margins that are unchanged from recent macro conditions. The strong margins were especially welcomed as many companies have been missing on operating margins and cash flow. Meanwhile, Microsoft delivered free cash flow of $17.8 billion and net profits of $16.7 billion along with upbeat guidance for the year. Similarly, Google reported strong free cash flow of $12.6 billion and net profits of $16 billion in the recent quarter.The same was not true for Meta, which primarily stumbled on its Q3 guide. The company reported its first decline in revenue in company history and guidance for next quarter missed due to FX headwinds. Analyst expectations for Q3 were for $30.4 billion, or 5% growth. Instead, the company guided for $26 billion to $28.5 billion, or a YoY decline of 6% at the mid-point of the guidance with the current exchange rates creating a 6% headwind.Amazon: Consumer Demand ResileAmazon.com Inc said it expects a jump in third-quarter revenue, as the retailer collects bigger fees from Prime loyalty subscriptions and as consumer demand remained high in spite of rising inflation.Amazon, like much of the retail industry, is facing a reckoning. Major rival Walmart Inc this week said it would make much less this year than it once expected. U.S. consumer confidence has tumbled to a recent low, and some are sticking to lower-priced essentials to manage economic woes.That has not stopped Amazon. The online retailer projected net sales between $125 billion and $130 billion for the summer period, while analysts were expecting only $126.42 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.Still, sales growth has slowed year-over-year in some of the retailer's business segments. In North America, the company's largest market, net sales climbed 10% in the just-ended second quarter, compared with a 22% gain in the same period a year ago. Its international unit saw an outright decline of 12%.Apple: Strong results despite challengesApple released strong results despite the challenging macro environment, strong US dollar, and supply chain issues. Revenue grew by 1.9% YoY to $83 billion, which was in-line with the analysts' estimates. It reported EPS of $1.20, which beat estimates by $0.04 (4% beat).The product segment revenue declined marginally by 0.9% YoY to $63.4 billion and the services segment revenue grew by 12% YoY to $19.6 billion. The company’s installed base of active devices reached an all-time high. It had more than 860 million of paid subscriptions, up 160 million in the past year.The company did not give exact revenue guidance for the next quarter. Tim Cook, CEO of the company, said in the earnings call,“We’re going to accelerate revenues in the September quarter as compared to the June quarter and will decelerate on the Services side.”The company’s gross margin was 43.26%, compared to 43.75% in the previous quarter and 43.29% in the same period last year. It was above the management’s guidance of 42% to 43%.Net income was $19.4 billion or $1.20 per share compared to $21.7 billion or $1.30 per share in the same period last year. It beat the analysts' EPS estimates by $0.04.The company had cash and marketable securities of $179 billion and a debt of $120 billion. The company reported strong operating cash flows of $23 billion (28% of revenue). The company returned over $28 billion to the shareholders in the recent quarter in the form of dividends and share repurchases.Tesla: Profit Beats Estimates, Keeps 50% Output Growth TargetTesla on Wednesday reported a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit, helped by a string of price increases for its cars, which Elon Musk later said were \"embarrassingly high\" and could hurt demand.Tesla also sold a majority of its bitcoin holdings, which led to smaller-than-expected impairment charges caused by a decline in the value of the cryptocurrency, analysts said.Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn said Tesla was still pushing to reach 50% growth in deliveries this year, adding that while the target had become more difficult, \"it remains possible with strong execution.\"Tesla's China factory ended the second quarter with a record monthly production level, after being forced to shut down due to COVID-19 related lockdowns.Musk said new factories in Berlin and Texas aimed to produce 5,000 cars a week by the end of the year, adding that Berlin produced 1,000 cars a week in June. He had previously said the new factories were \"gigantic money furnaces.\"The EV maker posted an adjusted profit of $2.27 per share for the second quarter ended June versus analysts' consensus estimates of $1.81.Automotive gross margin fell to 27.9%, down from a year earlier and the preceding quarter.Total revenue fell to $16.93 billion from $18.76 billion a quarter earlier, ending its streak of posting record revenue in recent quarters. Analysts expected $17.10 billion, according to Refinitiv.Alphabet: Search is ResilientThe company reported revenue of 13%, or 16% in constant currency, for a total of $69.7 billion. The operating margin was flat year-over-year, which is a win. Operating expenses grew 24% yet the operating margin was in line with previous quarters at 28% for $19.58 billion in operating income.The net margin was a bit weaker than previous quarters in 2021 at $16 billion yet in line with last quarter. The company has free cash flow of $12.6 billion. The company has $125 billion in cash and marketable securities. The company reported EPS of $1.21 compared to $1.36 for the same period last year.Search was stable given the current environment at 13.5% growth to $40 billion and this provided relief that not all ad spend has been paused. Search was strong last quarter at 24% growth to $40 billion, and was flat sequentially in terms of total dollar amount.The effects of Google’s large R&D department and advances in AI cannot be overstated when it comes to the resiliency of Search in the current environment. We are getting a very slight glimpse of what’s to come for Google in terms of its advertising dominance.The expectations were that YouTube would weigh on the report yet YouTube provided a bit of growth at 5% year-over-year. The company was adamant that YouTube growth is low because of the tough comps. The tough comps was touched on many times, such as this: “the modest year-on-year growth rate primarily reflects lapping the uniquely strong performance in the second quarter of 2021.”Notably, Google Cloud slowed to 35.6% growth down from 43.8% growth last quarter. This means Google Cloud is growing slower than Azure on a lower revenue base. This is something to monitor in the future.Microsoft: Double-Digit Guide for FY2023Many tech companies are declining to give guidance while Microsoft’s management provided strong guidance in both Q1 FY2023 and for FY2023. For Q1 FY2023, management provided a 10% guide across product lines for next quarter (this includes FX headwinds) and also provided guidance for fiscal year 2023 ending in June: “We continue to expect double-digit revenue and operating income growth in both constant currency and U.S. dollars. Revenue growth will be driven by continued momentum in our commercial business and a focus on share gains across our portfolio.”Revenue grew by 12% YoY to $51.9 billion (missed Wall Street analysts' estimates by 0.94%) and EPS came at $2.23 (missed estimates by 2.9%). The strong US dollar negatively impacted the revenue by $595 million and EPS by $0.04. Microsoft Cloud revenue grew by 28% YoY to $25 billion. The company’s results are good considering the various macro uncertainties, China lockdown, and the strong US dollar. FY2022 revenue grew by 18% YoY to $198.3 billion and net income increased by 19% YoY to $72.7 billion.The company’s gross income increased 10% YoY to $35.4 billion. The gross margin decreased by 147 bps to 68.2% when compared to the same period last year. Excluding the impact from the change in the accounting estimate, the gross margin was relatively unchanged.The operating income increased by 8% YoY to $20.5 billion. The operating margin decreased by 187 bps to 39.5%. Excluding the impact from the change in the accounting estimate and FX, the operating margin would be relatively unchanged.The company’s cash flows continued to be strong in the recent quarter. Cash from operations grew by 8% YoY to $24.6 billion (47% of revenue) and free cash flow increased by 9% YoY to $17.8 billion (34% of revenue). The company has cash and investments of $104.8 billion and debt of $49.8 billion.Despite weakness in PCs, the company’s other segments continue to grow. Intelligent Cloud grew 20% YoY to $20.9 billion and Productivity and Business Processes segment grew 13% YoY to $16.6 billion.The company also made an accounting change in the useful life for server and network equipment assets from four to six years which will extend the depreciation expenses for the company.Amy Hood said in the earnings call, “First, effective at the start of FY '23, we are extending the depreciable useful life for server and network equipment assets in our cloud infrastructure from 4 to 6 years, which will apply to the asset balances on our balance sheet as of June 30, 2022, as well as future asset purchases.As a result, based on the outstanding balances as of June 30, we expect fiscal year '23 operating income to be favorably impacted by approximately $3.7 billion for the full fiscal year and approximately $1.1 billion in the first quarter.”Meta: Misses Q3 ExpectationsThe market does not need a perfect quarter for Q2 given the numerous headwinds facing tech companies. What the market does need is a sign that a company may have bottomed and is able to guide growth (even if minimal) from Q2-Q3.In Q2, Meta’s revenue declined for the first time in history. This was expected. However, what was not expected was the lower guide for the next quarter. The company guided for $26 billion to $28.5 billion, or a YoY decline of 6% at the mid-point of the guidance. The guidance takes into consideration the weak advertising demand the company experienced in the recent quarter and also the foreign exchange headwinds of 6%. The investors were expecting a return of growth in the next quarter.The company had a slight beat on DAUs at 1.97 billion versus 1.96 billion expected. Monthly users were 2.93 billion slightly missed expectations of 2.94 billion.Operating expenses rose 22% YoY to $20.4 billion. This led to the drop in the operating margin to 29% in the recent quarter compared to 43% in the same period last year. It also led to the 36% YoY drop in the net income to $6.69 billion. The EPS came at $2.46 compared to $3.61 in Q2 2021.The company is looking to further reduce the operating expenses for the year to $85 billion to $88 billion from the last quarter guidance of $87 billion to $92 million and the prior estimate of $90 billion to $95 billion.Netflix: Customer Growth Forecast Eases Wall Street ConcernsNetflix averted its own worst-case scenario of subscriber losses, posting a nearly 1 million drop from April through June, and predicted it would return to customer growth during the third quarter.Investors took the forecast as a signal that Netflix could still find new subscribers despite a rocky global economy and signs of saturation in its biggest market, the United States and Canada.Netflix lost 1.3 million customers in the United States and Canada in the second quarter, and 770,000 in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. That was offset by a gain of nearly 1.1 million members in the Asia/Pacific region.Netflix remains the dominant streaming service with nearly 221 million global paid subscribers. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said the company still sees room for \"enormous\" growth by attracting many of the billions of people worldwide who have yet to sign up.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903356674,"gmtCreate":1658973913198,"gmtModify":1676536237982,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903356674","repostId":"2254337399","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2254337399","pubTimestamp":1658974049,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2254337399?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 10:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Wall St’s Rally on the Latest Fed Rise Is Silly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2254337399","media":"The Australian Financial Review","summary":"ChanticleerJerome Powell set markets alight on Wednesday night by suggesting the pace of rate rises ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chanticleer</p><p>Jerome Powell set markets alight on Wednesday night by suggesting the pace of rate rises might slow. But one veteran fund manager worries the market is underestimating the task ahead of the Fed.</p><p>Another big Federal Reserve rate rise, another bizarre Wall Street rally.</p><p>Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell once again tripped himself up in his press conference to discuss the 0.75 per cent rate hike announced on Wednesday night.</p><p>After declaring in his written statement that the Fed was committed to bringing inflation back towards the bank’s 2 per cent target, even amid signs of softening in the US economy, Powell let slip in his press conference that it might “likely become appropriate to slow the pace of increases” later in the year.</p><p>US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s suggestion the pace of rate rises could slow set the market alight.  David Rowe</p><p>And with that, Wall Street was off to the races: the S&amp;P 500 Index surged 2.6 per cent and the Nasdaq jumped 4.1 per cent, its best day in over two years.</p><p>Imagine if the Fed had lifted rates by 1 per cent!</p><p>There’s nothing new in this post-rate hike exuberance, of course. The S&amp;P 500 has rallied more than 1.4 per cent on every day the Fed has lifted rates this year – and then promptly given that rally back, and generally more, over the following weeks and months.</p><p>There are several reasons that a rally of the magnitude we saw on Wednesday night is silly, the first being that rising markets mean looser financial conditions – and that’s exactly what the inflation-fighting Fed doesn’t want.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is now up almost 10 per cent since the middle of June as investors and traders bet that by front-loading rate hikes, the Fed is getting closer to cutting rates as the US economy weakens.</p><p>Sameer Samana, senior global markets strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says investors who are betting on this rally continuing should be careful.</p><p>“The risk/reward from current levels is pretty poor since a further rally in risk and easing of financial conditions will push the Fed toward even larger hikes.”</p><p>The bigger reason this rally is risky is because it underestimates what the Fed might need to do to calm inflation in the US, which sits at a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent.</p><p>Mark Holowesko, the Bahamas-based fund manager who runs Holowesko Partners, showed a fascinating chart to investors during this visit to Australia this week, which showed the Fed’s interest rate and CPI at the end of the past eight tightening cycles.</p><p>His point was simple: “I don’t think most people realise that interest rates, reflected by the Fed Funds rate, historically have to get above the rate of inflation in order to control it.”</p><p>The Fed’s interest rate now stands at 2.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent, while inflation sits at 9.1 per cent.</p><p>Holowesko believes inflation will prove stickier than the market believes, pointing out 68 per cent of the items that make up US inflation are still inflating. And while he concedes that the US economy’s debt load – up from $US6 trillion in 2008 to $US28 trillion today – will exaggerate the impact of rate hikes, he’s not buying the market’s conviction that the Fed will soon be cutting.</p><p>“My view is that the 10-year Treasury rate should be around 6 per cent or 7 per cent at a minimum, and that assumes that inflation can come back down to four or 5 per cent. If you look at the Fed Funds futures curve, the expectation is that that funds rate gets to 3 per cent in March of 2023, that’s it, and then it falls. That’s crazy. That means that inflation has got to come down from 9 per cent to 3 or 4 per cent in the next six months. How’s that going to happen?”</p><p>Holowesko, whose flagship long/short fund up 4 per cent year to date, versus a 20 per cent decline in world markets, sees only a mild recession coming in the US because consumers are in great shape, particularly the wealthiest 20 per cent who account for 40 per cent of spending.</p><p>But he questions whether equity markets have really priced in the impact of rate hikes.</p><p>“I come back to the fundamental elements that drive a return. It’s the starting valuation and the end valuation, interest rates, profit margins and GDP growth. If your starting valuations are high, and your profit margins are under pressure, and interest rates are rising, it’s very difficult in that kind of environment to get proper returns.”</p><p>The US market might look cheaper at 17 times forward earnings, but Holowesko says that multiple doesn’t yet take into account the earnings hit from higher interest rates and slower economic growth. He believes US markets could still have another 20 per cent to 30 per cent to fall as rates rise.</p><p>“From my perspective I believe we are about a third of the way through this unwinding in the US. We haven’t seen the speculative excesses completely removed.”</p><p>Holowesko also sees the potential for a Fed mistake of the 1970s to be repeated. He says the Fed raised rates to fight inflation, only to cut them again amid early signs of economic weakness.</p><p>Inflation eventually got out of control and was not slayed until Paul Volcker was appointed chairman and delivered 7.75 per cent worth of tightening.</p><p>“I feel that may happen again. The Fed might panic and not increase rates enough. If they don’t bring inflation under control then we’re going to need a Volcker moment.”</p></body></html>","source":"afr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Wall St’s Rally on the Latest Fed Rise Is Silly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Wall St’s Rally on the Latest Fed Rise Is Silly\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-28 10:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-wall-st-s-rally-on-the-latest-fed-rise-is-silly-20220728-p5b58j><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ChanticleerJerome Powell set markets alight on Wednesday night by suggesting the pace of rate rises might slow. But one veteran fund manager worries the market is underestimating the task ahead of the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-wall-st-s-rally-on-the-latest-fed-rise-is-silly-20220728-p5b58j\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-wall-st-s-rally-on-the-latest-fed-rise-is-silly-20220728-p5b58j","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2254337399","content_text":"ChanticleerJerome Powell set markets alight on Wednesday night by suggesting the pace of rate rises might slow. But one veteran fund manager worries the market is underestimating the task ahead of the Fed.Another big Federal Reserve rate rise, another bizarre Wall Street rally.Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell once again tripped himself up in his press conference to discuss the 0.75 per cent rate hike announced on Wednesday night.After declaring in his written statement that the Fed was committed to bringing inflation back towards the bank’s 2 per cent target, even amid signs of softening in the US economy, Powell let slip in his press conference that it might “likely become appropriate to slow the pace of increases” later in the year.US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s suggestion the pace of rate rises could slow set the market alight.  David RoweAnd with that, Wall Street was off to the races: the S&P 500 Index surged 2.6 per cent and the Nasdaq jumped 4.1 per cent, its best day in over two years.Imagine if the Fed had lifted rates by 1 per cent!There’s nothing new in this post-rate hike exuberance, of course. The S&P 500 has rallied more than 1.4 per cent on every day the Fed has lifted rates this year – and then promptly given that rally back, and generally more, over the following weeks and months.There are several reasons that a rally of the magnitude we saw on Wednesday night is silly, the first being that rising markets mean looser financial conditions – and that’s exactly what the inflation-fighting Fed doesn’t want.The S&P 500 is now up almost 10 per cent since the middle of June as investors and traders bet that by front-loading rate hikes, the Fed is getting closer to cutting rates as the US economy weakens.Sameer Samana, senior global markets strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says investors who are betting on this rally continuing should be careful.“The risk/reward from current levels is pretty poor since a further rally in risk and easing of financial conditions will push the Fed toward even larger hikes.”The bigger reason this rally is risky is because it underestimates what the Fed might need to do to calm inflation in the US, which sits at a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent.Mark Holowesko, the Bahamas-based fund manager who runs Holowesko Partners, showed a fascinating chart to investors during this visit to Australia this week, which showed the Fed’s interest rate and CPI at the end of the past eight tightening cycles.His point was simple: “I don’t think most people realise that interest rates, reflected by the Fed Funds rate, historically have to get above the rate of inflation in order to control it.”The Fed’s interest rate now stands at 2.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent, while inflation sits at 9.1 per cent.Holowesko believes inflation will prove stickier than the market believes, pointing out 68 per cent of the items that make up US inflation are still inflating. And while he concedes that the US economy’s debt load – up from $US6 trillion in 2008 to $US28 trillion today – will exaggerate the impact of rate hikes, he’s not buying the market’s conviction that the Fed will soon be cutting.“My view is that the 10-year Treasury rate should be around 6 per cent or 7 per cent at a minimum, and that assumes that inflation can come back down to four or 5 per cent. If you look at the Fed Funds futures curve, the expectation is that that funds rate gets to 3 per cent in March of 2023, that’s it, and then it falls. That’s crazy. That means that inflation has got to come down from 9 per cent to 3 or 4 per cent in the next six months. How’s that going to happen?”Holowesko, whose flagship long/short fund up 4 per cent year to date, versus a 20 per cent decline in world markets, sees only a mild recession coming in the US because consumers are in great shape, particularly the wealthiest 20 per cent who account for 40 per cent of spending.But he questions whether equity markets have really priced in the impact of rate hikes.“I come back to the fundamental elements that drive a return. It’s the starting valuation and the end valuation, interest rates, profit margins and GDP growth. If your starting valuations are high, and your profit margins are under pressure, and interest rates are rising, it’s very difficult in that kind of environment to get proper returns.”The US market might look cheaper at 17 times forward earnings, but Holowesko says that multiple doesn’t yet take into account the earnings hit from higher interest rates and slower economic growth. He believes US markets could still have another 20 per cent to 30 per cent to fall as rates rise.“From my perspective I believe we are about a third of the way through this unwinding in the US. We haven’t seen the speculative excesses completely removed.”Holowesko also sees the potential for a Fed mistake of the 1970s to be repeated. He says the Fed raised rates to fight inflation, only to cut them again amid early signs of economic weakness.Inflation eventually got out of control and was not slayed until Paul Volcker was appointed chairman and delivered 7.75 per cent worth of tightening.“I feel that may happen again. The Fed might panic and not increase rates enough. If they don’t bring inflation under control then we’re going to need a Volcker moment.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903356358,"gmtCreate":1658973896774,"gmtModify":1676536237979,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903356358","repostId":"2254239152","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2254239152","pubTimestamp":1658974834,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2254239152?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Thinks Rate Rises Are Working. Is He Right?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2254239152","media":"The Australian Financial Review","summary":"It was subtle, but Jerome Powell gave the air of someone with more command over his mandate than any","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It was subtle, but Jerome Powell gave the air of someone with more command over his mandate than any time this year. The Fed chairman, however, has no control over global instability.</p><p>After the embarrassment of being caught flat-footed against supply side price surges last year, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell looked slightly more comfortable in his skin when he addressed the media on Wednesday (Thursday AEST).</p><p>After two aggressive 0.75 percentage point interest rate rises in as many months, Powell and his colleagues have landed close to a “neutral” Fed funds rate – of between 2.25 and 2.5 per cent - where monetary settings are neither stimulatory nor constraining.</p><p>From here, the Fed is likely to move to just below or above 3 per cent in September, at level at which the brakes are lightly applied to the US economy. Central banks around the world fighting similar battles with inflation will be watching closely.</p><p>Fed boss Jerome Powell and RBA governor Philip Lowe are both expected to keep raising rates. David Rowe</p><p>Whether the next Fed rate rise is another jumbo move or a more moderate one of 50, or even 25, basis points will depend on whether headline inflation eases from the 40-year high of 9.1 per cent seen last month, and what other data around the labour market, fixed investment and other economic activity are saying.</p><p>Barring further price shocks in commodities and ongoing disruption from post-pandemic supply constraints – both of which have fuelled inflation – Powell sees early signs that actual and flagged monetary tightening are starting to cool the domestic economy, and that the next couple of moves will consolidate this.</p><p>“These rate hikes have been large, and they’ve come quickly, and it’s likely that their full effect has not been felt by the economy,” he said during the question and answer session in Washington on Wednesday (Thursday AEST).</p><p>“The committee feels that we need to get policy to a moderately restrictive level.”</p><p>From here, the main risk is that the Fed overdoes it, and chokes off growth by scaring business and consumers into seeing inflation as a permanent feature of the post-COVID-19 economy. Some believe the world’s biggest economy is already in recession, albeit a shallow one without high unemployment.</p><p>As inflation expectations set into the public psyche, businesses postpone investment and hiring and consumers curtail spending. And this is why Powell on Wednesday reiterated the importance of achieving price stability, which he described as the “bedrock of sustainable economic growth”.</p><p>Getting prices down, then, takes marginal priority over the central bank’s other mandate, that of protecting jobs. That Powell can afford to watch the unemployment rate climb a little from its current 3.6 per cent is a luxury afforded by one of the tightest labour markets in recent memory.</p><p>“We actually think we need a period of growth below potential in order to create some slack, so that supply side can catch up,” Powell said.</p><p>“We also think there will be in all likelihood some softening in the labour market conditions.”</p><p>Market reaction to Powell’s comment suggests investors want to believe the “soft landing” narrative. Share prices surged, and long- and short-maturity bond yields fell, as buyers reckoned on a pivot to more moderate tightening of monetary conditions.</p><p>“I think they want to believe that the economy is slowing sufficiently now to create what might be a soft landing by the first half of next year,” said David de Garis, chief economist at National Australia Bank.</p><p>Powell’s main caveat, of course, is global instability and the sort of commodity price shocks that the war in Ukraine, the lingering fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, or tension in the Asia-Pacific region have delivered, and could again. Although these are largely stripped out of core inflation readings, the Fed still has to act on headline inflation.</p><p>“If you have a sustained period of supply shocks, those can actually start to undermine, or work on de-anchoring inflation expectations,” Powell admitted.</p><p>Ignore or underplay the risks of these wildcard factors at your peril, says Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve and White House economist.</p><p>“Some commentators argue that the US needs a recession to bring inflation down,” she wrote in the <i>Financial Times</i> this week.</p><p>“That thinking hinges on a simplistic model of the economy and a refusal to see COVID and the war in Ukraine as important sources of inflation now.</p><p>“The stakes are too high to rely on such a questionable approach.”</p></body></html>","source":"afr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Thinks Rate Rises Are Working. Is He Right?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Thinks Rate Rises Are Working. Is He Right?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-28 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/powell-finds-slightly-more-dovish-voice-as-fed-tightening-takes-hold-20220728-p5b57e><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It was subtle, but Jerome Powell gave the air of someone with more command over his mandate than any time this year. The Fed chairman, however, has no control over global instability.After the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/powell-finds-slightly-more-dovish-voice-as-fed-tightening-takes-hold-20220728-p5b57e\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/powell-finds-slightly-more-dovish-voice-as-fed-tightening-takes-hold-20220728-p5b57e","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2254239152","content_text":"It was subtle, but Jerome Powell gave the air of someone with more command over his mandate than any time this year. The Fed chairman, however, has no control over global instability.After the embarrassment of being caught flat-footed against supply side price surges last year, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell looked slightly more comfortable in his skin when he addressed the media on Wednesday (Thursday AEST).After two aggressive 0.75 percentage point interest rate rises in as many months, Powell and his colleagues have landed close to a “neutral” Fed funds rate – of between 2.25 and 2.5 per cent - where monetary settings are neither stimulatory nor constraining.From here, the Fed is likely to move to just below or above 3 per cent in September, at level at which the brakes are lightly applied to the US economy. Central banks around the world fighting similar battles with inflation will be watching closely.Fed boss Jerome Powell and RBA governor Philip Lowe are both expected to keep raising rates. David RoweWhether the next Fed rate rise is another jumbo move or a more moderate one of 50, or even 25, basis points will depend on whether headline inflation eases from the 40-year high of 9.1 per cent seen last month, and what other data around the labour market, fixed investment and other economic activity are saying.Barring further price shocks in commodities and ongoing disruption from post-pandemic supply constraints – both of which have fuelled inflation – Powell sees early signs that actual and flagged monetary tightening are starting to cool the domestic economy, and that the next couple of moves will consolidate this.“These rate hikes have been large, and they’ve come quickly, and it’s likely that their full effect has not been felt by the economy,” he said during the question and answer session in Washington on Wednesday (Thursday AEST).“The committee feels that we need to get policy to a moderately restrictive level.”From here, the main risk is that the Fed overdoes it, and chokes off growth by scaring business and consumers into seeing inflation as a permanent feature of the post-COVID-19 economy. Some believe the world’s biggest economy is already in recession, albeit a shallow one without high unemployment.As inflation expectations set into the public psyche, businesses postpone investment and hiring and consumers curtail spending. And this is why Powell on Wednesday reiterated the importance of achieving price stability, which he described as the “bedrock of sustainable economic growth”.Getting prices down, then, takes marginal priority over the central bank’s other mandate, that of protecting jobs. That Powell can afford to watch the unemployment rate climb a little from its current 3.6 per cent is a luxury afforded by one of the tightest labour markets in recent memory.“We actually think we need a period of growth below potential in order to create some slack, so that supply side can catch up,” Powell said.“We also think there will be in all likelihood some softening in the labour market conditions.”Market reaction to Powell’s comment suggests investors want to believe the “soft landing” narrative. Share prices surged, and long- and short-maturity bond yields fell, as buyers reckoned on a pivot to more moderate tightening of monetary conditions.“I think they want to believe that the economy is slowing sufficiently now to create what might be a soft landing by the first half of next year,” said David de Garis, chief economist at National Australia Bank.Powell’s main caveat, of course, is global instability and the sort of commodity price shocks that the war in Ukraine, the lingering fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, or tension in the Asia-Pacific region have delivered, and could again. Although these are largely stripped out of core inflation readings, the Fed still has to act on headline inflation.“If you have a sustained period of supply shocks, those can actually start to undermine, or work on de-anchoring inflation expectations,” Powell admitted.Ignore or underplay the risks of these wildcard factors at your peril, says Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve and White House economist.“Some commentators argue that the US needs a recession to bring inflation down,” she wrote in the Financial Times this week.“That thinking hinges on a simplistic model of the economy and a refusal to see COVID and the war in Ukraine as important sources of inflation now.“The stakes are too high to rely on such a questionable approach.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070420976,"gmtCreate":1657092451595,"gmtModify":1676535948226,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070420976","repostId":"9070465808","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9070465808,"gmtCreate":1657091832443,"gmtModify":1676535948161,"author":{"id":"9000000000000351","authorId":"9000000000000351","name":"WebbBart","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a81761a2eae3f57678008e1b9012c2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000351","authorIdStr":"9000000000000351"},"themes":[],"title":"Why EV Stock Li Auto Zoomed 52.8% in June and Could Rally Higher","htmlText":"The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer is firing on all cylinders.What happenedIn June, when the stock markets crashed and the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;lost 8.4% in value,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$Li Auto(LI)$</a> stock gained a jaw-dropping 52.8%, according to data provided by&nbsp;S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. The rally in Li Auto shares stuns even more when you realize that theelectric vehicle (EV) stockwas down 13.3% in the year through May.What changed so dramatically for Li Auto, and is this rally even sustainable?So whatThe first day of any month often sets the tone for a Chinese EV stock's performance, as that's when these companies release their monthly sales data.On June 1, Li Auto reported a 166% year-over-year jump in its Li One SUV sales. Deliveries rose 1","listText":"The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer is firing on all cylinders.What happenedIn June, when the stock markets crashed and the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;lost 8.4% in value,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$Li Auto(LI)$</a> stock gained a jaw-dropping 52.8%, according to data provided by&nbsp;S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. The rally in Li Auto shares stuns even more when you realize that theelectric vehicle (EV) stockwas down 13.3% in the year through May.What changed so dramatically for Li Auto, and is this rally even sustainable?So whatThe first day of any month often sets the tone for a Chinese EV stock's performance, as that's when these companies release their monthly sales data.On June 1, Li Auto reported a 166% year-over-year jump in its Li One SUV sales. Deliveries rose 1","text":"The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer is firing on all cylinders.What happenedIn June, when the stock markets crashed and the S&P 500 lost 8.4% in value, $Li Auto(LI)$ stock gained a jaw-dropping 52.8%, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The rally in Li Auto shares stuns even more when you realize that theelectric vehicle (EV) stockwas down 13.3% in the year through May.What changed so dramatically for Li Auto, and is this rally even sustainable?So whatThe first day of any month often sets the tone for a Chinese EV stock's performance, as that's when these companies release their monthly sales data.On June 1, Li Auto reported a 166% year-over-year jump in its Li One SUV sales. Deliveries rose 1","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/800e0bc4ffe9d5d88e1bca3047932e90","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070465808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043321079,"gmtCreate":1655875895791,"gmtModify":1676535723801,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043321079","repostId":"9043365901","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9043365901,"gmtCreate":1655874631402,"gmtModify":1676535723654,"author":{"id":"4109443091392070","authorId":"4109443091392070","name":"the rookie investor","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9f515899ba0ac5145da960447393868","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109443091392070","authorIdStr":"4109443091392070"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Sharesight - The Share Portfolio Tracker I use for Tax time\n \n","listText":"Sharesight - The Share Portfolio Tracker I use for Tax time","text":"Sharesight - The Share Portfolio Tracker I use for Tax time","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c26c41537957a2af24c7400a55ee3e","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043365901","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"3ffc6814086a4687a4757ad392b5cbbd","tweetId":"9043365901","title":"Sharesight - The Share Portfolio Tracker I use for Tax time","videoUrl":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/16558746236313c53819824523fff84b7c54585883c9b.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c26c41537957a2af24c7400a55ee3e","shareLink":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/16558746236313c53819824523fff84b7c54585883c9b.mp4"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085229266,"gmtCreate":1650711877403,"gmtModify":1676534780963,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085229266","repostId":"2229416577","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010239007,"gmtCreate":1648388133942,"gmtModify":1676534333137,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010239007","repostId":"2221071429","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221071429","pubTimestamp":1648343569,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221071429?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-27 09:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet Vs. Meta: One Is The Much Better Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221071429","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty ImagesAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are fa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8682b68644fb0e700ccf73bfd598736\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty Images</p><p></p><p>Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are famous for enriching millions of investors over the last eight years.</p><p><b> Alphabet And Meta Returns Since 2013</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7de1c1120c62c3dad9c49e5d4e5a134\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"112\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>In fact, both have crushed even the red hot Nasdaq during <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the hottest tech bull runs in US history, delivering Buffett-like 25% returns that resulted in an 8X return.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad549342543f2ced891f57b6c43bb4fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p></p><p>While the market is currently in a correction, and growth stocks have been especially hard hit, Meta has been crushed, falling into a 50% bear market.</p><p>I&#39;ve bought both growth legends in this correction, but one is a core growth name in my correction plan, and the other is a non-core holding.</p><p>So let me explain why both Meta and Alphabet are great companies, worth owning, and even buying more of right now.</p><p>However, a careful examination of both of their fundamentals makes it clear that Alphabet is the global king of digital marketing, and this is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future.</p><h2>The Challenge Facing Digital Marketers Right Now</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a556ac1fd6482c83da2db4af6d5b7540\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>eMarketer</p><p></p><p>GOOG, FB, and Amazon (AMZN) have a triopoly on US digital marketing, commanding an estimated 65% of the market.</p><p>Both GOOG and FB are losing market share to AMZN because Amazon&#39;s ads are 3X as effective at converting to actual sales.</p><p>That&#39;s because Amazon has spent decades gathering customer sales data and knows what its customers want better than anyone on earth.</p><p>Apple&#39;s (AAPL) recent privacy shift in iOS, makes it much easier to opt out of data tracking, and 62% of iPhone users have indeed opted out.</p><p>This has proven a hammer blow to FB, which management says could cost it $10 billion in 2022 alone.</p><p>GOOG is less at risk since it still has the search data it can use to optimize for targeted ads.</p><p>AMZN is the least at risk since it relies far less on cookie tracking than its rivals.</p><p>This kind of business model disruption is part of FB and GOOG&#39;s risk profile, which brings us to our first point of comparison.</p><h2>Long-Term Risk Management: Winner Alphabet</h2><p>How do we quantify, monitor, and track such a complex risk profile? By doing what big institutions do.</p><h2>Material Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk</h2><ul><li>4 Things You Need To Know To Profit From ESG Investing</li><li>What Investors Need To Know About Company Long-Term Risk Management (Video)</li></ul><p>Here is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.</p><ul><li>ESG is NOT &#34;political or personal ethics based investing&#34;</li><li>it&#39;s total long-term risk management analysis</li></ul><blockquote><i><b>ESG is just normal risk by another name.</b></i><i>&#34; Simon MacMahon, head of ESG and corporate governance research, Sustainalytics&#34; - Morningstar</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>ESG factors are taken into consideration, alongside all other credit factors, when we consider they are relevant to and have or may have a material influence on creditworthiness.&#34; - S&amp;P</i></blockquote><p>ESG is a measure of risk, not of ethics, political correctness, or personal opinion.</p><p>S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody&#39;s, DBRS (Canadian rating agency), AMBest (insurance rating agency), R&amp;I Credit Rating (Japanese rating agency), and the Japan Credit Rating Agency <b>have been using ESG models in their credit ratings for decades.</b></p><ul><li><b>every credit rating for the last 30 years has included these risk models, you just weren&#39;t aware of it </b></li><li>credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality model</li><li>dividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality model</li></ul><p>Every major financial institution also tracks long-term risk management and considers it essential to sound long-term investing including,</p><ul><li>BlackRock</li><li>MSCI</li><li>JPMorgan</li><li>Wells Fargo</li><li>Bank of America</li><li>Deutsche Bank</li><li>virtually every major financial institution in the world</li></ul><p>We use six rating agencies to get a consensus risk management percentile, comparing how well a company manages its risk relative to its peers.</p><p>For context:</p><ul><li>master list average: 62nd percentile</li><li>dividend kings: 63rd percentile</li><li>dividend aristocrats: 67th percentile</li><li>Ultra SWANs: 71st percentile</li></ul><p>The better a company&#39;s risk management consensus the more likely it will be able to adapt to challenges to its business model, as we&#39;re seeing now with GOOG and FB.</p><h4>Meta Long-Term Risk-Management Consensus</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating Agency</b></td><td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td><td><p><b>Rating Agency Classification</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>MSCI 37 Metric Model</td><td>26.0%</td><td><p>B Industry Laggard, Negative Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model</td><td>0.7%</td><td><p>32.4/100 High-Risk</p></td></tr><tr><td>Reuters&#39;/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model</td><td>88.9%</td><td>Good</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 1,000+ Metric Model</td><td>18.0%</td><td><p>Very Poor- Stable Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital 19 Metric Model</td><td>50.0%</td><td>Average</td></tr><tr><td>FactSet</td><td>30.0%</td><td><p>Below-Average Stable Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar Global Percentile</td><td>30.6%</td><td>Below-Average</td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital Global Percentile</td><td>25.4%</td><td>Poor</td></tr><tr><td><b>Consensus</b></td><td><b>33.7%</b></td><td><p><b>Below-Average (verging on poor) - medium risk</b></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters&#39;, Just Capital, S&amp;P, FactSet Research)</i></p><p>The rating agency consensus is that FB is below-average at managing its risk, verging on poor.</p><p>Now contrast that with GOOG.</p><h4>Alphabet Long-Term Risk-Management Consensus</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating Agency</b></td><td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td><td><p><b>Rating Agency Classification</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>MSCI 37 Metric Model</td><td>53.0%</td><td><p>BBB Average, Negative Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model</td><td>39.7%</td><td><p>24.3/100 Medium-Risk</p></td></tr><tr><td>Reuters&#39;/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model</td><td>85.88%</td><td>Good</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 1,000+ Metric Model</td><td>47.0%</td><td><p>Average- Positive Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital 19 Metric Model</td><td>100.00%</td><td><p>#1 Industry Leader</p></td></tr><tr><td>FactSet</td><td>30.0%</td><td><p>Below-Average Stable Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar Global Percentile</td><td>60.88</td><td>Above-Average</td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital Global Percentile</td><td>100%</td><td><p>#1 Industry Leader, #1 Company In America</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Consensus</b></td><td><b>64.6%</b></td><td><b>Above-Average - low risk </b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters&#39;, Just Capital, S&amp;P, FactSet Research)</i></p><p>GOOG doesn&#39;t just manage its long-term risk better than FB, it&#39;s beating FB by 31%.</p><ul><li>far more likely to successfully deal with privacy policy shifts, regulators, and every other major risk to its business model</li></ul><p>And risk-management isn&#39;t the only factor in which GOOG outshines FB by a wide margin.</p><h2>Overall Quality: Winner, Alphabet</h2><p>The Dividend King&#39;s overall quality scores are based on a 241 point model that includes:</p><ul><li><p>dividend safety</p></li><li><p>balance sheet strength</p></li><li><p>credit ratings</p></li><li><p>credit default swap medium-term bankruptcy risk data</p></li><li><p>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</p></li><li><p>accounting and corporate fraud risk</p></li><li><p>profitability and business model</p></li><li><p>growth consensus estimates</p></li><li><p>management growth guidance</p></li><li><p>historical earnings growth rates</p></li><li><p>historical cash flow growth rates</p></li><li><p>historical dividend growth rates</p></li><li><p>historical sales growth rates</p></li><li><p>cost of capital</p></li><li><p>long-term risk-management scores from MSCI, Morningstar, FactSet, S&amp;P, Reuters&#39;/Refinitiv, and Just Capital</p></li><li><p>management quality</p></li><li><p>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</p></li><li><p>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</p></li><li><p>analyst consensus long-term return potential</p></li></ul><p>It actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by 12 rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.</p><ul><li><p>credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality model</p></li><li><p>dividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality model</p></li></ul><p>How do we know that our safety and quality model works well?</p><p>During the two worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 87% of blue-chip dividend cuts during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.</p><p>That&#39;s because we don&#39;t miss anything important about a company&#39;s fundamental safety and quality.</p><p>So how do GOOG and FB stack up on one of the world&#39;s most comprehensive and accurate safety and quality models?</p><h2>Meta: A Speculative 11/19 Quality Blue-Chip</h2><p><b>Meta Balance Sheet Safety</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating</b></td><td><b>Dividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)</b></td><td><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</b></td><td><p><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>1 - unsafe</td><td>0% to 20%</td><td>over 4%</td><td>16+%</td></tr><tr><td>2- below average</td><td>21% to 40%</td><td>over 2%</td><td>8% to 16%</td></tr><tr><td>3 - average</td><td>41% to 60%</td><td>2%</td><td>4% to 8%</td></tr><tr><td>4 - safe</td><td>61% to 80%</td><td>1%</td><td>2% to 4%</td></tr><tr><td>5- very safe</td><td>81% to 100%</td><td>0.5%</td><td>1% to 2%</td></tr><tr><td><b>FB</b></td><td><b>100%</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>Medium Risk (34th industry percentile risk-management consensus)</td><td>Effective AAA stable outlook credit rating 0.07% 30-year bankruptcy risk</td><td>2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Recommendation - speculative, turnaround stock</td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Long-Term Dependability</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</b></td><td><b>Interpretation</b></td><td><b>Points</b></td></tr><tr><td>Non-Dependable Companies</td><td>21% or below</td><td>Poor Dependability</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Low Dependability Companies</td><td>22% to 60%</td><td>Below-Average Dependability</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td><td>61% (58% to 70% range)</td><td>Average Dependability</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Above-Average</td><td>71% to 80%</td><td>Very Dependable</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Very Good</td><td>81% or higher</td><td>Exceptional Dependability</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td><b>FB</b></td><td><b>67%</b></td><td><b>Average Dependability</b></td><td><b>3</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Overall Quality</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>FB</b></td><td><b>Final Score</b></td><td><b>Rating</b></td></tr><tr><td>Safety</td><td>100%</td><td>5/5 very safe</td></tr><tr><td>Business Model</td><td>100%</td><td>3/3 wide moat</td></tr><tr><td>Dependability</td><td>67%</td><td>3/5 average dependability</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total</b></td><td><b>84%</b></td><td><b>11/13 Speculative Blue-Chip</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td><p>2/3 Medium Risk</p></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec - speculative, turnaround stock</td><td><p>20% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good Buy</p></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table><p>And here&#39;s GOOG.</p><h2>Alphabet: A 13/13 Quality Ultra SWAN</h2><p><b>Alphabet Balance Sheet Safety</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating</b></td><td><b>Dividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)</b></td><td><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</b></td><td><p><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>1 - unsafe</td><td>0% to 20%</td><td>over 4%</td><td>16+%</td></tr><tr><td>2- below average</td><td>21% to 40%</td><td>over 2%</td><td>8% to 16%</td></tr><tr><td>3 - average</td><td>41% to 60%</td><td>2%</td><td>4% to 8%</td></tr><tr><td>4 - safe</td><td>61% to 80%</td><td>1%</td><td>2% to 4%</td></tr><tr><td>5- very safe</td><td>81% to 100%</td><td>0.5%</td><td>1% to 2%</td></tr><tr><td><b>GOOG</b></td><td><b>100%</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>Low Risk (65th industry percentile risk-management consensus)</td><td>AA+ stable outlook credit rating 0.29% 30-year bankruptcy risk</td><td>20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Recommendation</td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Long-Term Dependability</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</b></td><td><b>Interpretation</b></td><td><b>Points</b></td></tr><tr><td>Non-Dependable Companies</td><td>21% or below</td><td>Poor Dependability</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Low Dependability Companies</td><td>22% to 60%</td><td>Below-Average Dependability</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td><td>61% (58% to 70% range)</td><td>Average Dependability</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Above-Average</td><td>71% to 80%</td><td>Very Dependable</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Very Good</td><td>81% or higher</td><td>Exceptional Dependability</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td><b>GOOG</b></td><td><b>89%</b></td><td><b>Exceptional Dependability</b></td><td><b>5</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Overall Quality</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>GOOG</b></td><td><b>Final Score</b></td><td><b>Rating</b></td></tr><tr><td>Safety</td><td>100%</td><td>5/5 very safe</td></tr><tr><td>Business Model</td><td>100%</td><td>3/3 wide moat</td></tr><tr><td>Dependability</td><td>89%</td><td>5/5 exceptional</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total</b></td><td><b>95%</b></td><td><b>13/13 Ultra SWAN</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>3/3 Low Risk</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec</td><td><p>5% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good Buy</p></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table><ul><li>Meta: 114th highest quality company on the Masterlist: 78th percentile</li><li>Alphabet: 39th highest quality: 92nd percentile</li></ul><p>Both companies are exceptionally high quality given that our company database is one of the best in the world.</p><p>The DK 500 Master List includes the world&#39;s highest quality companies including:</p><ul><li><p>All dividend champions</p></li><li><p>All dividend aristocrats</p></li><li><p>All dividend kings</p></li><li><p>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</p></li><li><p>All 13/13 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</p></li><li>48 of the world&#39;s best growth stocks (on its way to 100)</li></ul><p>But when it comes to overall quality, factoring in over 1,000 fundamental metrics, the winner is clearly once more Alphabet.</p><p>Why is GOOG the hands-down winner in this quality fight with FB?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>Quality Rating (out Of 13)</b></td><td><b>Quality Score (Out Of 100)</b></td><td><b>Dividend/Balance Sheet Safety Rating (out of 5)</b></td><td><b>Safety Score (Out Of 100)</b></td><td><b>Dependability Rating (Out Of 5)</b></td><td><b>Dependability Score (out Of 100)</b></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a></td><td>11 Speculative Blue-Chip</td><td>84%</td><td>5 Very Safe</td><td>100%</td><td>3 average</td><td>67%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>13 Ultra SWAN</td><td>95%</td><td>5 Very Safe</td><td>100%</td><td>5 exceptional</td><td>89%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal)</i></p><p>Both FB and Meta have exceptionally strong balance sheets, making the risk of bankruptcy as close to zero as you can find on Wall Street.</p><h4>Alphabet&#39;s Balance Sheet: AA+ Rated By S&amp;P</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13f13c309fa748452dfea0afb27ebdf\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>GuruFocus Premium</p><p></p><p>GOOG has $140 billion in cash and just $13 billion in debt.</p><p>Its advanced accounting metrics (F, Z, and M-score) are exceptional.</p><ul><li>F-score is a measure of short-term bankruptcy risk</li><li>4+ is safe, 7+ very safe and GOOG&#39;s is 8</li><li>M-score is 84% to 92% accurate at forecasting long-term bankruptcies</li><li>1.81+ is safe, 3+ is very safe and GOOG&#39;s is 13.04</li><li>M-score is 76% accurate at catching accounting fraud, and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting</li><li>-1.78 or lower is safe and GOOG&#39;s is -2.48</li></ul><h4>Meta&#39;s Balance Sheet: Effectively AAA</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68209d14c736c8328e46572200e82060\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>GuruFocus Premium</p><p></p><p>The only &#34;debt&#34; Meta has is receivables, it actually carries no long-term debt.</p><p>That is why it&#39;s the largest company on earth that doesn&#39;t pay the $500K per year for a credit rating.</p><p>However, given its current and historical advanced credit metrics, as well as its exceptionally strong solvency ratios (current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratios), I&#39;m highly confident that it would be AAA-rated.</p><ul><li>because it&#39;s literally not possible for FB to default on debt it doesn&#39;t have</li></ul><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Credit Rating</b></td><td><b>30-Year Bankruptcy Probability</b></td></tr><tr><td>AAA (Meta)</td><td>0.07%</td></tr><tr><td>AA+ (Alphabet)</td><td>0.29%</td></tr><tr><td>AA</td><td>0.51%</td></tr><tr><td>AA-</td><td>0.55%</td></tr><tr><td>A+</td><td>0.60%</td></tr><tr><td>A</td><td>0.66%</td></tr><tr><td>A-</td><td>2.5%</td></tr><tr><td>BBB+</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>BBB</td><td>7.5%</td></tr><tr><td>BBB-</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>BB+</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>BB</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>BB-</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>B+</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>B</td><td>37%</td></tr><tr><td>B-</td><td>45%</td></tr><tr><td>CCC+</td><td>52%</td></tr><tr><td>CCC</td><td>59%</td></tr><tr><td>CCC-</td><td>65%</td></tr><tr><td>CC</td><td>70%</td></tr><tr><td>C</td><td>80%</td></tr><tr><td>D</td><td>100%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: S&amp;P, University of St. Petersberg)</i></p><p>This means the fundamental risk of losing all your money over the next 30 years buying FB or GOOG today is approximately</p><ul><li>1 in 1,429 for FB</li><li>1 in 345 for GOOG</li></ul><p>And both companies&#39; balance sheets are expected to keep getting stronger over time.</p><p><b>Alphabet: Consensus $441 Billion In Net Cash By 2027 </b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c3a6843c329c2b16d3839e0e124674\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p><b>Meta: Consensus $71 Billion In Net Cash By 2027</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec44680d5d8318ba8ed74d4b40ae28e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p>Now let&#39;s consider profitability, Wall Street&#39;s favorite quality proxy.</p><h2>Profitability: Winner, Meta By A Small Amount</h2><p><b>Meta Profitability Vs Peers</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2b501a3cd5bb6da5299422362bed67\" tg-width=\"486\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gurufocus Premium</p><p></p><p><b>Alphabet Profitability Vs Peers</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926a2ab456d218b3ef8cd49552df5565\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gurufocus Premium</p><p></p><p>Both companies are profit-minting machines.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673b7f04eadaf433b4fe704dda171180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p></p><p>These are two of the most profitable companies on earth, and their industry-leading profitability has been stable or improving for over a decade, confirming a wide and stable moat.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a1b491d8a76dd73ddc3b2ea13e999c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p>FB&#39;s free cash flow is expected to keep growing and reach $77 billion in 2027.</p><p>This is expected to result in impressive buybacks in the coming years.</p><ul><li>$219 billion in consensus buybacks through 2027</li><li>38% of shares at current valuations</li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f9e72220887060384ea19dc975503c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p>GOOG&#39;s annual free cash flow is expected to grow to $139 billion in 2027, allowing it to undertake even more impressive buybacks.</p><ul><li>$380 billion in consensus buybacks through 2027</li><li>21% of shares at current valuations</li></ul><p>Now let&#39;s consider one important profitability metric in particular.</p><p>Return on capital or ROC is Joel Greenblatt&#39;s gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.</p><p>ROC = pre-tax profit/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business).</p><ul><li>S&amp;P 500&#39;s average in 2021 was 14.6% (average investment pays for itself in 7 years)</li></ul><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>ROC (Greenblatt)</b></td><td><b>ROC Industry Percentile</b></td><td><b>13-Year Median ROC</b></td><td><b>5-Year ROC Trend (OTC:CAGR)</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>74%</td><td>65%</td><td>95%</td><td>-16%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>87%</td><td>67%</td><td>74%</td><td>-7%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>In the past year, GOOG&#39;s return on capital was higher than FB&#39;s and it&#39;s also above its 13-year median indicating a more stable moat.</p><p>In other words, when it comes to profitability, FB edges out GOOG by a small amount, except in terms of return on capital, where it&#39;s once more the winner.</p><h2>Valuation: Winner, Meta</h2><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>Average Fair Value</b></td><td><b>Current Price</b></td><td><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></td><td><b>DK Rating</b></td><td><b>PE 2022</b></td><td><b>PEG 2022</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>$265.75</td><td>$214.35</td><td>19.6%</td><td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td><td>17.19</td><td>1.49</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>$3,161.89</td><td>$2,771.92</td><td>12.3%</td><td>Potentially Good Buy</td><td>23.51</td><td>1.67</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>FB is trading at a slightly lower valuation and a higher margin of safety, though not quite high enough for me to consider it a good buy.</p><ul><li>20% discount is needed to make FB a potentially good buy given its lower quality and risk profile</li></ul><p>If we back out cash we see that FB is once more the more undervalued company.</p><ul><li>FB EV/EBITDA: 9.5</li><li>GOOG EV/EBITDA: 14.5</li></ul><p>However, both companies are trading at highly attractive valuations.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>12-Month Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>12-Month Fundamentally Justified Upside Total Return Potential</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>48.47%</td><td>23.98%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>25.77%</td><td>14.11%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>This is why analysts expect both to deliver very strong returns, though FB potentially much more than GOOG.</p><p>Of course, what happens in the next year doesn&#39;t matter as much as the kind of returns both companies can deliver over the long-term.</p><h2>Long-Term Total Return Potential: Winner, Alphabet</h2><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>Yield</b></td><td><b>FactSet Long-Term Consensus Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>0.00%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>8.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>0.00%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>9.9%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>GOOG is expected to grow significantly faster than FB over time, resulting in far better long-term returns.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Investment Strategy</b></td><td><b>Yield</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Growth</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</b></td><td><b>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</b></td><td><b>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</b></td><td><p><b>10 Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Return</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Europe</td><td>2.6%</td><td>12.8%</td><td>15.4%</td><td>10.7%</td><td>8.6%</td><td>8.4</td><td>2.27</td></tr><tr><td>Value</td><td>2.1%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>9.9%</td><td>7.7%</td><td>9.3</td><td>2.10</td></tr><tr><td><b>Alphabet</b></td><td><b>0.0%</b></td><td><b>14.1%</b></td><td><b>14.1%</b></td><td><b>9.9%</b></td><td><b>7.7%</b></td><td><b>9.4</b></td><td>2.10</td></tr><tr><td>High-Yield</td><td>2.8%</td><td>11.3%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>9.9%</td><td>7.7%</td><td>9.4</td><td>2.10</td></tr><tr><td>High-Yield + Growth</td><td>1.7%</td><td>11.0%</td><td>12.7%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>6.7%</td><td>10.8</td><td>1.91</td></tr><tr><td>Safe Midstream + Growth</td><td>3.3%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>8.3%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.80</td></tr><tr><td><b>Meta</b></td><td><b>0.0%</b></td><td><b>11.50%</b></td><td><b>11.5%</b></td><td><b>8.1%</b></td><td><b>5.9%</b></td><td><b>12.3</b></td><td>1.77</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq (Growth)</td><td>0.8%</td><td>10.7%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>8.1%</td><td>5.9%</td><td>12.3</td><td>1.77</td></tr><tr><td>Safe Midstream</td><td>5.5%</td><td>6.0%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>8.1%</td><td>5.9%</td><td>12.3</td><td>1.77</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.2%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.6%</td><td>12.9</td><td>1.72</td></tr><tr><td>REITs + Growth</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>10.6%</td><td>7.4%</td><td>5.2%</td><td>13.7</td><td>1.67</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.4%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>9.9%</td><td>7.0%</td><td>4.8%</td><td>15.1</td><td>1.59</td></tr><tr><td>Realty Income</td><td>4.6%</td><td>5.2%</td><td>9.8%</td><td>6.9%</td><td>4.7%</td><td>15.4</td><td>1.58</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Growth</td><td>1.6%</td><td>8.0%</td><td>9.6%</td><td>6.7%</td><td>4.5%</td><td>15.9</td><td>1.56</td></tr><tr><td>REITs</td><td>2.9%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>9.4%</td><td>6.6%</td><td>4.4%</td><td>16.4</td><td>1.54</td></tr><tr><td>60/40 Retirement Portfolio</td><td>2.1%</td><td>5.1%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>5.1%</td><td>2.9%</td><td>24.9</td><td>1.33</td></tr><tr><td>10-Year US Treasury</td><td>2.3%</td><td>0.0%</td><td>2.3%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>-0.5%</td><td>-131.1</td><td>0.95</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Both companies are expected to beat the S&amp;P 500 over time, though FB merely to match the Nasdaq while GOOG is expected to run circles around big tech.</p><p>What kind of difference does 2.6% per year in potential extra returns actually mean for your life?</p><h4>Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>7.7% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&amp;P Consensus</b></td><td><b>11.9% Inflation-Adjusted GOOG Consensus</b></td><td><b>9.3% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted FB Consensus</b></td><td><b>Difference Between Inflation Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus Returns</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>$1,449.03</td><td>$1,756.06</td><td>$1,561.34</td><td>$194.71</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>$2,099.70</td><td>$3,083.73</td><td>$2,437.79</td><td>$645.95</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>$3,042.53</td><td>$5,415.21</td><td>$3,806.22</td><td>$1,608.99</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>$4,408.74</td><td>$9,509.42</td><td>$5,942.82</td><td>$3,566.60</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>$6,388.41</td><td>$16,699.08</td><td>$9,278.77</td><td>$7,420.31</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>$9,257.02</td><td>$29,324.53</td><td>$14,487.34</td><td>$14,837.19</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Both FB and GOOG are likely to generate good returns but GOOG could turn a modest investment today into a potentially small fortune in the coming decades.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>Ratio Inflation-Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>1.12</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>1.26</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>1.42</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>1.60</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>1.80</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>2.02</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>In fact, GOOG could potentially double FB&#39;s 30-year returns if both companies grow as analysts currently expect.</p><h2>Short &amp; Medium-Term Total Return Potential: Tie</h2><p><b>Meta 2024 Consensus Return Potential </b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f903c32f63dbb4cfa5efa19492b8a0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>FB growing at 11.5% is worth about 20.5X earnings based on the company&#39;s historical PEG ratio.</p><ul><li>analyst 12-month consensus forecast is for 21.9 PE</li></ul><p>This means that if FB grows as expected through 2024 it could deliver about 18% annular returns, far more than the 17% overvalued S&amp;P 500 is likely to generate.</p><p>What about the next five years?</p><h4>S&amp;P 500 2027 Consensus Return Potential</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>Upside Potential By End of That Year</b></td><td><b>Consensus CAGR Return Potential By End of That Year</b></td><td><b>Probability-Weighted Return (Annualized)</b></td><td><p><b>Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>34.75%</td><td>6.15%</td><td>4.61%</td><td>1.27%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK S&amp;P 500 Valuation And Total Return Tool)</i></p><p>For context, analysts expect 35% returns from the S&amp;P 500, which adjusted for inflation and risk is 1% compared to the market&#39;s historical 6% to 7% real return.</p><h4><b>Meta 2027 Consensus Return Potential</b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66d31fef78452199e2961d8d89d65454\" tg-width=\"275\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>FB could more than double your money if it grows as analysts expect over the next five years.</p><ul><li>3.2X the S&amp;P 500 consensus</li></ul><h2><b>GOOG 2024 Consensus Return Potential </b></h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc664bb22e0ba08e06de0e9bbed286c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>GOOG could deliver 13% annual returns through 2024 if it grows as expected.</p><p>In the past GOOG has grown as slowly as 11% and billions of investors still paid 25.7X earnings, meaning that its historical market-fair value multiple of 25 to 26X earnings should still be valid.</p><h4><b>GOOG 2027 Consensus Return Potential</b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d07a6169cb075678d6646bca01679\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>Thanks to GOOG&#39;s faster growth rate analysts expect both companies to potentially deliver identical returns.</p><ul><li>about 14% annually over the next five years</li><li>also 3.2X better than the S&amp;P 500</li></ul><h2>Bottom Line: Both Are Great Companies But In The Battle Of Meta And Alphabet There Is One Clear Winner</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dea4bc19b8951f30e1b2bea40e989b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507426f09d401e866c66a1f1dd597e4f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p></p><p>Both Alphabet and Meta are wonderful companies, and as close to perfect growth blue-chip opportunities as you can find on Wall Street right now.</p><ul><li>far superior valuation</li><li>superior quality</li><li>superior long-term return potential to the S&amp;P 500</li></ul><p>However, when we examine both companies in their entirety one fact is clear.</p><ul><li>GOOG is a higher quality company</li><li>GOOG is a faster-growing company (<i>with potentially 2X better long-term return potential than FB</i>)</li><li>GOOG has far better long-term risk management (to deal with the disruption the digital advertising industry is currently facing)</li><li>GOOG has superior return on capital and a more stable moat</li></ul><p>While FB offers superior valuation and potentially double the short-term return potential, it&#39;s a speculative blue-chip currently going through the largest business pivot in the company&#39;s history.</p><p>In contrast, GOOG is a faster-growing Ultra SWAN that is expected to buy back almost $400 billion worth of stock in the next five years, double that of FB.</p><p>Simply put, if you can only buy one of these growth legends today, I recommend Alphabet, and that&#39;s why I have it as a core growth position in my correction plan.</p><p>Not just for the next few weeks, but all of 2022 and beyond.</p><p>Because at the end of the day, when you focus on safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk-management always, you never have to pray for luck on Wall Street, you make your own.</p><blockquote>Luck is what happens when preparation meets, opportunity.&#34; - Roman philosopher Seneca the younger</blockquote></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet Vs. Meta: One Is The Much Better Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet Vs. Meta: One Is The Much Better Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-27 09:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497464-alphabet-vs-meta-one-is-better-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty ImagesAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are famous for enriching millions of investors over the last eight years. Alphabet And Meta Returns Since ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497464-alphabet-vs-meta-one-is-better-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497464-alphabet-vs-meta-one-is-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221071429","content_text":"FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty ImagesAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are famous for enriching millions of investors over the last eight years. Alphabet And Meta Returns Since 2013Portfolio Visualizer PremiumIn fact, both have crushed even the red hot Nasdaq during one of the hottest tech bull runs in US history, delivering Buffett-like 25% returns that resulted in an 8X return.YchartsWhile the market is currently in a correction, and growth stocks have been especially hard hit, Meta has been crushed, falling into a 50% bear market.I've bought both growth legends in this correction, but one is a core growth name in my correction plan, and the other is a non-core holding.So let me explain why both Meta and Alphabet are great companies, worth owning, and even buying more of right now.However, a careful examination of both of their fundamentals makes it clear that Alphabet is the global king of digital marketing, and this is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future.The Challenge Facing Digital Marketers Right NoweMarketerGOOG, FB, and Amazon (AMZN) have a triopoly on US digital marketing, commanding an estimated 65% of the market.Both GOOG and FB are losing market share to AMZN because Amazon's ads are 3X as effective at converting to actual sales.That's because Amazon has spent decades gathering customer sales data and knows what its customers want better than anyone on earth.Apple's (AAPL) recent privacy shift in iOS, makes it much easier to opt out of data tracking, and 62% of iPhone users have indeed opted out.This has proven a hammer blow to FB, which management says could cost it $10 billion in 2022 alone.GOOG is less at risk since it still has the search data it can use to optimize for targeted ads.AMZN is the least at risk since it relies far less on cookie tracking than its rivals.This kind of business model disruption is part of FB and GOOG's risk profile, which brings us to our first point of comparison.Long-Term Risk Management: Winner AlphabetHow do we quantify, monitor, and track such a complex risk profile? By doing what big institutions do.Material Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk4 Things You Need To Know To Profit From ESG InvestingWhat Investors Need To Know About Company Long-Term Risk Management (Video)Here is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.ESG is NOT \"political or personal ethics based investing\"it's total long-term risk management analysisESG is just normal risk by another name.\" Simon MacMahon, head of ESG and corporate governance research, Sustainalytics\" - MorningstarESG factors are taken into consideration, alongside all other credit factors, when we consider they are relevant to and have or may have a material influence on creditworthiness.\" - S&PESG is a measure of risk, not of ethics, political correctness, or personal opinion.S&P, Fitch, Moody's, DBRS (Canadian rating agency), AMBest (insurance rating agency), R&I Credit Rating (Japanese rating agency), and the Japan Credit Rating Agency have been using ESG models in their credit ratings for decades.every credit rating for the last 30 years has included these risk models, you just weren't aware of it credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality modeldividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality modelEvery major financial institution also tracks long-term risk management and considers it essential to sound long-term investing including,BlackRockMSCIJPMorganWells FargoBank of AmericaDeutsche Bankvirtually every major financial institution in the worldWe use six rating agencies to get a consensus risk management percentile, comparing how well a company manages its risk relative to its peers.For context:master list average: 62nd percentiledividend kings: 63rd percentiledividend aristocrats: 67th percentileUltra SWANs: 71st percentileThe better a company's risk management consensus the more likely it will be able to adapt to challenges to its business model, as we're seeing now with GOOG and FB.Meta Long-Term Risk-Management ConsensusRating AgencyIndustry PercentileRating Agency ClassificationMSCI 37 Metric Model26.0%B Industry Laggard, Negative TrendMorningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model0.7%32.4/100 High-RiskReuters'/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model88.9%GoodS&P 1,000+ Metric Model18.0%Very Poor- Stable TrendJust Capital 19 Metric Model50.0%AverageFactSet30.0%Below-Average Stable TrendMorningstar Global Percentile30.6%Below-AverageJust Capital Global Percentile25.4%PoorConsensus33.7%Below-Average (verging on poor) - medium risk(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters', Just Capital, S&P, FactSet Research)The rating agency consensus is that FB is below-average at managing its risk, verging on poor.Now contrast that with GOOG.Alphabet Long-Term Risk-Management ConsensusRating AgencyIndustry PercentileRating Agency ClassificationMSCI 37 Metric Model53.0%BBB Average, Negative TrendMorningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model39.7%24.3/100 Medium-RiskReuters'/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model85.88%GoodS&P 1,000+ Metric Model47.0%Average- Positive TrendJust Capital 19 Metric Model100.00%#1 Industry LeaderFactSet30.0%Below-Average Stable TrendMorningstar Global Percentile60.88Above-AverageJust Capital Global Percentile100%#1 Industry Leader, #1 Company In AmericaConsensus64.6%Above-Average - low risk (Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters', Just Capital, S&P, FactSet Research)GOOG doesn't just manage its long-term risk better than FB, it's beating FB by 31%.far more likely to successfully deal with privacy policy shifts, regulators, and every other major risk to its business modelAnd risk-management isn't the only factor in which GOOG outshines FB by a wide margin.Overall Quality: Winner, AlphabetThe Dividend King's overall quality scores are based on a 241 point model that includes:dividend safetybalance sheet strengthcredit ratingscredit default swap medium-term bankruptcy risk datashort and long-term bankruptcy riskaccounting and corporate fraud riskprofitability and business modelgrowth consensus estimatesmanagement growth guidancehistorical earnings growth rateshistorical cash flow growth rateshistorical dividend growth rateshistorical sales growth ratescost of capitallong-term risk-management scores from MSCI, Morningstar, FactSet, S&P, Reuters'/Refinitiv, and Just Capitalmanagement qualitydividend friendly corporate culture/income dependabilitylong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)analyst consensus long-term return potentialIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by 12 rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality modeldividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality modelHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?During the two worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 87% of blue-chip dividend cuts during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.That's because we don't miss anything important about a company's fundamental safety and quality.So how do GOOG and FB stack up on one of the world's most comprehensive and accurate safety and quality models?Meta: A Speculative 11/19 Quality Blue-ChipMeta Balance Sheet SafetyRatingDividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession1 - unsafe0% to 20%over 4%16+%2- below average21% to 40%over 2%8% to 16%3 - average41% to 60%2%4% to 8%4 - safe61% to 80%1%2% to 4%5- very safe81% to 100%0.5%1% to 2%FB100%NANARisk RatingMedium Risk (34th industry percentile risk-management consensus)Effective AAA stable outlook credit rating 0.07% 30-year bankruptcy risk2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Recommendation - speculative, turnaround stockLong-Term DependabilityCompanyDK Long-Term Dependability ScoreInterpretationPointsNon-Dependable Companies21% or belowPoor Dependability1Low Dependability Companies22% to 60%Below-Average Dependability2S&P 500/Industry Average61% (58% to 70% range)Average Dependability3Above-Average71% to 80%Very Dependable4Very Good81% or higherExceptional Dependability5FB67%Average Dependability3Overall QualityFBFinal ScoreRatingSafety100%5/5 very safeBusiness Model100%3/3 wide moatDependability67%3/5 average dependabilityTotal84%11/13 Speculative Blue-ChipRisk Rating2/3 Medium Risk2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec - speculative, turnaround stock20% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good BuyAnd here's GOOG.Alphabet: A 13/13 Quality Ultra SWANAlphabet Balance Sheet SafetyRatingDividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession1 - unsafe0% to 20%over 4%16+%2- below average21% to 40%over 2%8% to 16%3 - average41% to 60%2%4% to 8%4 - safe61% to 80%1%2% to 4%5- very safe81% to 100%0.5%1% to 2%GOOG100%NANARisk RatingLow Risk (65th industry percentile risk-management consensus)AA+ stable outlook credit rating 0.29% 30-year bankruptcy risk20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap RecommendationLong-Term DependabilityCompanyDK Long-Term Dependability ScoreInterpretationPointsNon-Dependable Companies21% or belowPoor Dependability1Low Dependability Companies22% to 60%Below-Average Dependability2S&P 500/Industry Average61% (58% to 70% range)Average Dependability3Above-Average71% to 80%Very Dependable4Very Good81% or higherExceptional Dependability5GOOG89%Exceptional Dependability5Overall QualityGOOGFinal ScoreRatingSafety100%5/5 very safeBusiness Model100%3/3 wide moatDependability89%5/5 exceptionalTotal95%13/13 Ultra SWANRisk Rating3/3 Low Risk20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec5% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good BuyMeta: 114th highest quality company on the Masterlist: 78th percentileAlphabet: 39th highest quality: 92nd percentileBoth companies are exceptionally high quality given that our company database is one of the best in the world.The DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:All dividend championsAll dividend aristocratsAll dividend kingsAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)All 13/13 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)48 of the world's best growth stocks (on its way to 100)But when it comes to overall quality, factoring in over 1,000 fundamental metrics, the winner is clearly once more Alphabet.Why is GOOG the hands-down winner in this quality fight with FB?CompanyQuality Rating (out Of 13)Quality Score (Out Of 100)Dividend/Balance Sheet Safety Rating (out of 5)Safety Score (Out Of 100)Dependability Rating (Out Of 5)Dependability Score (out Of 100)Meta Platforms11 Speculative Blue-Chip84%5 Very Safe100%3 average67%Alphabet13 Ultra SWAN95%5 Very Safe100%5 exceptional89%(Source: DK Research Terminal)Both FB and Meta have exceptionally strong balance sheets, making the risk of bankruptcy as close to zero as you can find on Wall Street.Alphabet's Balance Sheet: AA+ Rated By S&PGuruFocus PremiumGOOG has $140 billion in cash and just $13 billion in debt.Its advanced accounting metrics (F, Z, and M-score) are exceptional.F-score is a measure of short-term bankruptcy risk4+ is safe, 7+ very safe and GOOG's is 8M-score is 84% to 92% accurate at forecasting long-term bankruptcies1.81+ is safe, 3+ is very safe and GOOG's is 13.04M-score is 76% accurate at catching accounting fraud, and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting-1.78 or lower is safe and GOOG's is -2.48Meta's Balance Sheet: Effectively AAAGuruFocus PremiumThe only \"debt\" Meta has is receivables, it actually carries no long-term debt.That is why it's the largest company on earth that doesn't pay the $500K per year for a credit rating.However, given its current and historical advanced credit metrics, as well as its exceptionally strong solvency ratios (current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratios), I'm highly confident that it would be AAA-rated.because it's literally not possible for FB to default on debt it doesn't haveCredit Rating30-Year Bankruptcy ProbabilityAAA (Meta)0.07%AA+ (Alphabet)0.29%AA0.51%AA-0.55%A+0.60%A0.66%A-2.5%BBB+5%BBB7.5%BBB-11%BB+14%BB17%BB-21%B+25%B37%B-45%CCC+52%CCC59%CCC-65%CC70%C80%D100%(Sources: S&P, University of St. Petersberg)This means the fundamental risk of losing all your money over the next 30 years buying FB or GOOG today is approximately1 in 1,429 for FB1 in 345 for GOOGAnd both companies' balance sheets are expected to keep getting stronger over time.Alphabet: Consensus $441 Billion In Net Cash By 2027 FactSet Research TerminalMeta: Consensus $71 Billion In Net Cash By 2027FactSet Research TerminalNow let's consider profitability, Wall Street's favorite quality proxy.Profitability: Winner, Meta By A Small AmountMeta Profitability Vs PeersGurufocus PremiumAlphabet Profitability Vs PeersGurufocus PremiumBoth companies are profit-minting machines.YchartsThese are two of the most profitable companies on earth, and their industry-leading profitability has been stable or improving for over a decade, confirming a wide and stable moat.FactSet Research TerminalFB's free cash flow is expected to keep growing and reach $77 billion in 2027.This is expected to result in impressive buybacks in the coming years.$219 billion in consensus buybacks through 202738% of shares at current valuationsFactSet Research TerminalGOOG's annual free cash flow is expected to grow to $139 billion in 2027, allowing it to undertake even more impressive buybacks.$380 billion in consensus buybacks through 202721% of shares at current valuationsNow let's consider one important profitability metric in particular.Return on capital or ROC is Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.ROC = pre-tax profit/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business).S&P 500's average in 2021 was 14.6% (average investment pays for itself in 7 years)CompanyROC (Greenblatt)ROC Industry Percentile13-Year Median ROC5-Year ROC Trend (OTC:CAGR)Meta Platforms74%65%95%-16%Alphabet87%67%74%-7%(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)In the past year, GOOG's return on capital was higher than FB's and it's also above its 13-year median indicating a more stable moat.In other words, when it comes to profitability, FB edges out GOOG by a small amount, except in terms of return on capital, where it's once more the winner.Valuation: Winner, MetaCompanyAverage Fair ValueCurrent PriceDiscount To Fair ValueDK RatingPE 2022PEG 2022Meta Platforms$265.75$214.3519.6%Potentially Reasonable Buy17.191.49Alphabet$3,161.89$2,771.9212.3%Potentially Good Buy23.511.67(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)FB is trading at a slightly lower valuation and a higher margin of safety, though not quite high enough for me to consider it a good buy.20% discount is needed to make FB a potentially good buy given its lower quality and risk profileIf we back out cash we see that FB is once more the more undervalued company.FB EV/EBITDA: 9.5GOOG EV/EBITDA: 14.5However, both companies are trading at highly attractive valuations.Company12-Month Consensus Total Return Potential12-Month Fundamentally Justified Upside Total Return PotentialMeta Platforms48.47%23.98%Alphabet25.77%14.11%(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)This is why analysts expect both to deliver very strong returns, though FB potentially much more than GOOG.Of course, what happens in the next year doesn't matter as much as the kind of returns both companies can deliver over the long-term.Long-Term Total Return Potential: Winner, AlphabetCompanyYieldFactSet Long-Term Consensus Growth RateLT Consensus Total Return PotentialRisk-Adjusted Expected ReturnMeta Platforms0.00%11.5%11.5%8.1%Alphabet0.00%14.1%14.1%9.9%(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)GOOG is expected to grow significantly faster than FB over time, resulting in far better long-term returns.Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10 Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted ReturnEurope2.6%12.8%15.4%10.7%8.6%8.42.27Value2.1%12.1%14.1%9.9%7.7%9.32.10Alphabet0.0%14.1%14.1%9.9%7.7%9.42.10High-Yield2.8%11.3%14.1%9.9%7.7%9.42.10High-Yield + Growth1.7%11.0%12.7%8.9%6.7%10.81.91Safe Midstream + Growth3.3%8.5%11.8%8.3%6.1%11.81.80Meta0.0%11.50%11.5%8.1%5.9%12.31.77Nasdaq (Growth)0.8%10.7%11.5%8.1%5.9%12.31.77Safe Midstream5.5%6.0%11.5%8.1%5.9%12.31.77Dividend Aristocrats2.2%8.9%11.1%7.8%5.6%12.91.72REITs + Growth1.8%8.9%10.6%7.4%5.2%13.71.67S&P 5001.4%8.5%9.9%7.0%4.8%15.11.59Realty Income4.6%5.2%9.8%6.9%4.7%15.41.58Dividend Growth1.6%8.0%9.6%6.7%4.5%15.91.56REITs2.9%6.5%9.4%6.6%4.4%16.41.5460/40 Retirement Portfolio2.1%5.1%7.2%5.1%2.9%24.91.3310-Year US Treasury2.3%0.0%2.3%1.6%-0.5%-131.10.95(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)Both companies are expected to beat the S&P 500 over time, though FB merely to match the Nasdaq while GOOG is expected to run circles around big tech.What kind of difference does 2.6% per year in potential extra returns actually mean for your life?Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial InvestmentTime Frame (Years)7.7% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&P Consensus11.9% Inflation-Adjusted GOOG Consensus9.3% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted FB ConsensusDifference Between Inflation Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus Returns5$1,449.03$1,756.06$1,561.34$194.7110$2,099.70$3,083.73$2,437.79$645.9515$3,042.53$5,415.21$3,806.22$1,608.9920$4,408.74$9,509.42$5,942.82$3,566.6025$6,388.41$16,699.08$9,278.77$7,420.3130$9,257.02$29,324.53$14,487.34$14,837.19(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)Both FB and GOOG are likely to generate good returns but GOOG could turn a modest investment today into a potentially small fortune in the coming decades.Time Frame (Years)Ratio Inflation-Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus51.12101.26151.42201.60251.80302.02(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)In fact, GOOG could potentially double FB's 30-year returns if both companies grow as analysts currently expect.Short & Medium-Term Total Return Potential: TieMeta 2024 Consensus Return Potential FAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchFB growing at 11.5% is worth about 20.5X earnings based on the company's historical PEG ratio.analyst 12-month consensus forecast is for 21.9 PEThis means that if FB grows as expected through 2024 it could deliver about 18% annular returns, far more than the 17% overvalued S&P 500 is likely to generate.What about the next five years?S&P 500 2027 Consensus Return PotentialYearUpside Potential By End of That YearConsensus CAGR Return Potential By End of That YearProbability-Weighted Return (Annualized)Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns202734.75%6.15%4.61%1.27%(Source: DK S&P 500 Valuation And Total Return Tool)For context, analysts expect 35% returns from the S&P 500, which adjusted for inflation and risk is 1% compared to the market's historical 6% to 7% real return.Meta 2027 Consensus Return PotentialFAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchFB could more than double your money if it grows as analysts expect over the next five years.3.2X the S&P 500 consensusGOOG 2024 Consensus Return Potential FAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchGOOG could deliver 13% annual returns through 2024 if it grows as expected.In the past GOOG has grown as slowly as 11% and billions of investors still paid 25.7X earnings, meaning that its historical market-fair value multiple of 25 to 26X earnings should still be valid.GOOG 2027 Consensus Return PotentialFAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchThanks to GOOG's faster growth rate analysts expect both companies to potentially deliver identical returns.about 14% annually over the next five yearsalso 3.2X better than the S&P 500Bottom Line: Both Are Great Companies But In The Battle Of Meta And Alphabet There Is One Clear WinnerDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolBoth Alphabet and Meta are wonderful companies, and as close to perfect growth blue-chip opportunities as you can find on Wall Street right now.far superior valuationsuperior qualitysuperior long-term return potential to the S&P 500However, when we examine both companies in their entirety one fact is clear.GOOG is a higher quality companyGOOG is a faster-growing company (with potentially 2X better long-term return potential than FB)GOOG has far better long-term risk management (to deal with the disruption the digital advertising industry is currently facing)GOOG has superior return on capital and a more stable moatWhile FB offers superior valuation and potentially double the short-term return potential, it's a speculative blue-chip currently going through the largest business pivot in the company's history.In contrast, GOOG is a faster-growing Ultra SWAN that is expected to buy back almost $400 billion worth of stock in the next five years, double that of FB.Simply put, if you can only buy one of these growth legends today, I recommend Alphabet, and that's why I have it as a core growth position in my correction plan.Not just for the next few weeks, but all of 2022 and beyond.Because at the end of the day, when you focus on safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk-management always, you never have to pray for luck on Wall Street, you make your own.Luck is what happens when preparation meets, opportunity.\" - Roman philosopher Seneca the younger","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098800390,"gmtCreate":1644067587064,"gmtModify":1676533887437,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098800390","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196927717?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...</blockquote><p>As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091094628,"gmtCreate":1643727551783,"gmtModify":1676533849122,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091094628","repostId":"1196808170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196808170","pubTimestamp":1643709294,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196808170?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-01 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Microsoft Of Artificial Intelligence","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196808170","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir sits on top of other systems just like Windows does.Gotham and Foundry are not the e","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir sits on top of other systems just like Windows does.</li><li>Gotham and Foundry are not the end but only the beginning.</li><li>Palantir&#39;s next 10 years could be like Microsoft&#39;s early years.</li><li>SBC (Stock Based Compensation) doesn&#39;t seem to have hurt Microsoft.</li></ul><p>Trying to define what uber-mysterious Palantir (PLTR) does is akin to Churchill&#39;s famous quote regarding Russia &#34;It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. &#34;</p><p>How can a company that&#39;s been in existence almost 20 years still be such a mystery to so many? My answer is: it&#39;s part of the plan.</p><p>I have written about Palantir before in this article &#34;Palantir Is About Data And Data Is The Future &#34;. In that article, I argued that the huge amount of data both existing and massively accumulating, is to artificial intelligence like raw meat is to a lion. If AI is indeed about data then something has to feed it, just like the lion. That something is Palantir.</p><p>In this article, I will attempt to define PLTR as an operating system sitting on top of a user&#39;s various and sundry systems in order to easily access and order myriad data sources quickly and legibly.</p><p>Here are four ways PLTR resembles Microsoft (MSFT) the most famous and successful operating system developer in history.</p><p><b>1. Palantir sits on top of other systems just like Windows does.</b></p><p>What do operating systems do? They sit on top of everything else including data, software, operations, etc. They manage everything underneath them so nothing gets out of control. In my estimation, the best, most descriptive name for an operating system is one I worked on decades ago: Master Control Program {MCP} from Unisys (see here). In fact, the name is so good it has been borrowed by the hugely successful Tron game (see here).</p><p>That&#39;s what Gotham and Foundry do: they control what&#39;s beneath them, mainly huge amounts of uncorrelated data from various and sundry sources. They then use those results to feed the huge, voracious maw of AI.</p><p>Think about Windows for example.</p><p>Under Windows, you could convert a PDF file to a Word document, the Word document to text, the text file to Excel, and the Excel file into PowerPoint or SQL Server.</p><p>Multiply the complexity of the data sources and endpoints by about 1,000 times and you have what Palantir does. But still, it is about mastering control and that&#39;s what operating systems do.</p><p><b>2. Gotham and Foundry are not the end but only the beginning.</b></p><p>Many years ago I bought an IBM PC with a 5MB (yep, MB not GB or TB) hard drive for a client to run his payroll on. It was running MS-DOS and Microsoft basic.</p><p>Fast forward 30 some years later and we now have Microsoft Azure running every imaginable application for every imaginable customer on the cloud. And little old MS-DOS is now Office 365 many times connected to Windows Server.</p><p>The point here is there is much more to come from PLTR in future years other than Gotham and Foundry. I am certain those new applications are in process as we speak.</p><p>Where exactly will PLTR&#39;s systems be in 5, 10, or 20 years? I certainly don&#39;t know but I am willing to bet (by owning the stock) it will more than likely resemble Microsoft&#39;s historic path than say Oracle&#39;s.</p><p><b>Per Palantir&#39;s COO Shyam Sankar:</b></p><blockquote>Of course, trillion dollar is well short of our ambition over the next 10 years. We always have and will always continue to focus on building cutting-edge product that the world needs anticipating the future, operating with precision, building before the need is obvious,</blockquote><p>Source:Seeking Alpha</p><p>So &#34;building before the need is obvious&#34; means there is much more coming from Palantir and, in fact, some of it is already on the way. Just like Microsoft, PLTR is building for a future that is unknown on the one hand but certain in others - there will be massively more data to be analyzed and whoever does it best will be the next Microsoft.</p><p><b>3. Palantir&#39;s next 10 years could be like Microsoft&#39;s early years.</b></p><p>Since Palantir was in business for 17 years before it went public I am going to compare PLTR to MSFT beginning in 1992 about 17 years after it was founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen. MSFT&#39;s revenue in 1992 was about $1.5 billion close to Palantir&#39;s revenue of $1.1 billion in 2020.</p><p>Just as a curiosity, let&#39;s look at MSFT&#39;s 3, 5, and 10-year future returns based upon the billion-plus revenue of 1992.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad5e3e0e226264cba87e4902d1143ac\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NASDAQ and Author</span></p><p>Note Palantir was also founded by two well-known tech investors Peter Thiel and Alex Karp. A little older than Microsoft&#39;s founders and perhaps a little wiser too.</p><p>The hair is a little different but notice each picture has one guy in a sweater and one guy in a suit. That may or may not represent a strong investment correlation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d847b9f38da7f4f2a20ae04b3be26b07\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The equivalent stock performance for PLTR from the initial listing date to now would be as shown below.</p><p>Some analysts say PLTR is vastly overvalued and looking at the chart below you can see the logic of that argument. Both software companies were up 400%, but one in four months and one in five years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf096508c2197eebaafaf7833770cb05\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NASDAQ and author</span></p><p><b>4. SBC (Stock Based Compensation) doesn&#39;t seem to have hurt Microsoft.</b></p><p>One of the arguments Palantir critics often mention is an over-reliance on SBC driving up the PLTR share count from about 900 million in the 3rd quarter of 2020 to about two billion in the 3rd quarter of 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b22667e48e9a254fd11bd7ae4693ea1\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Of course, those numbers do not include options provided to employees that have not been cashed in yet.</p><p>But if you look at MSFT, they have generated four billionaires and at least 12,000 millionaires.</p><blockquote>The company&#39;s 1986initial public offering(IPO), and subsequent rise in its share price, created three billionaires and an estimated 12,000 millionaires among Microsoft employees.</blockquote><p>Source:Wikipedia</p><p>Add Steve Ballmer&#39;s $120 billion to the billionaire&#39;s list(see here)although he came to the party later. I am sure Steve had a ton ofSBC.</p><p>As a comparison to MSFT&#39;s 12,000 millionaires, PLTR only has about 3,000 employees.</p><p>Since MSFT currently has a market value of $2.5 trillion versus PLTR $40 billion, it would be hard to argue that SBC will hold PLTR back long-term.</p><p><b>Conclusion:</b></p><p>Artificial Intelligence without data (lots of data) is like Artificial Flowers - pretty, but borderline useless.</p><p>That&#39;s why PLTR&#39;s current data acquisition/manipulation operating systems, Foundry and Gotham, are so important to their AI efforts. Those who have the best quality data will have the best AI.</p><p>There can be little doubt that data and its related AI will be everywhere soon, from your phone to your TV to your garage door opener.</p><p>And we are not talking about just digital data either. There will be data acquisition of voice, terrain, faxes, encrypted messages, texts, photographs, physical movements, people, and things.</p><p>How about the distance, speed, and spin of every golf stroke on the PGA Tour?</p><p>And Steph Curry&#39;s individual finger grip pressure, ball rotation, and tightness of his shoestrings on every 30-foot 3-pointer he makes?</p><p>While the current estimates for the amount of data available and captured over the next 5, 10, or 20 years are high and growing, I think it is still vastly underestimated.</p><p>That&#39;s what Palantir knows and why it is an excellent long-term investment.</p><p>Buy PLTR if you have a long-term investment plan. It will prosper in any economic environment.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Microsoft Of Artificial Intelligence</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Microsoft Of Artificial Intelligence\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-01 17:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4482952-palantir-stock-resembles-microsoft><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir sits on top of other systems just like Windows does.Gotham and Foundry are not the end but only the beginning.Palantir's next 10 years could be like Microsoft's early years.SBC (Stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4482952-palantir-stock-resembles-microsoft\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4482952-palantir-stock-resembles-microsoft","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196808170","content_text":"SummaryPalantir sits on top of other systems just like Windows does.Gotham and Foundry are not the end but only the beginning.Palantir's next 10 years could be like Microsoft's early years.SBC (Stock Based Compensation) doesn't seem to have hurt Microsoft.Trying to define what uber-mysterious Palantir (PLTR) does is akin to Churchill's famous quote regarding Russia \"It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. \"How can a company that's been in existence almost 20 years still be such a mystery to so many? My answer is: it's part of the plan.I have written about Palantir before in this article \"Palantir Is About Data And Data Is The Future \". In that article, I argued that the huge amount of data both existing and massively accumulating, is to artificial intelligence like raw meat is to a lion. If AI is indeed about data then something has to feed it, just like the lion. That something is Palantir.In this article, I will attempt to define PLTR as an operating system sitting on top of a user's various and sundry systems in order to easily access and order myriad data sources quickly and legibly.Here are four ways PLTR resembles Microsoft (MSFT) the most famous and successful operating system developer in history.1. Palantir sits on top of other systems just like Windows does.What do operating systems do? They sit on top of everything else including data, software, operations, etc. They manage everything underneath them so nothing gets out of control. In my estimation, the best, most descriptive name for an operating system is one I worked on decades ago: Master Control Program {MCP} from Unisys (see here). In fact, the name is so good it has been borrowed by the hugely successful Tron game (see here).That's what Gotham and Foundry do: they control what's beneath them, mainly huge amounts of uncorrelated data from various and sundry sources. They then use those results to feed the huge, voracious maw of AI.Think about Windows for example.Under Windows, you could convert a PDF file to a Word document, the Word document to text, the text file to Excel, and the Excel file into PowerPoint or SQL Server.Multiply the complexity of the data sources and endpoints by about 1,000 times and you have what Palantir does. But still, it is about mastering control and that's what operating systems do.2. Gotham and Foundry are not the end but only the beginning.Many years ago I bought an IBM PC with a 5MB (yep, MB not GB or TB) hard drive for a client to run his payroll on. It was running MS-DOS and Microsoft basic.Fast forward 30 some years later and we now have Microsoft Azure running every imaginable application for every imaginable customer on the cloud. And little old MS-DOS is now Office 365 many times connected to Windows Server.The point here is there is much more to come from PLTR in future years other than Gotham and Foundry. I am certain those new applications are in process as we speak.Where exactly will PLTR's systems be in 5, 10, or 20 years? I certainly don't know but I am willing to bet (by owning the stock) it will more than likely resemble Microsoft's historic path than say Oracle's.Per Palantir's COO Shyam Sankar:Of course, trillion dollar is well short of our ambition over the next 10 years. We always have and will always continue to focus on building cutting-edge product that the world needs anticipating the future, operating with precision, building before the need is obvious,Source:Seeking AlphaSo \"building before the need is obvious\" means there is much more coming from Palantir and, in fact, some of it is already on the way. Just like Microsoft, PLTR is building for a future that is unknown on the one hand but certain in others - there will be massively more data to be analyzed and whoever does it best will be the next Microsoft.3. Palantir's next 10 years could be like Microsoft's early years.Since Palantir was in business for 17 years before it went public I am going to compare PLTR to MSFT beginning in 1992 about 17 years after it was founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen. MSFT's revenue in 1992 was about $1.5 billion close to Palantir's revenue of $1.1 billion in 2020.Just as a curiosity, let's look at MSFT's 3, 5, and 10-year future returns based upon the billion-plus revenue of 1992.NASDAQ and AuthorNote Palantir was also founded by two well-known tech investors Peter Thiel and Alex Karp. A little older than Microsoft's founders and perhaps a little wiser too.The hair is a little different but notice each picture has one guy in a sweater and one guy in a suit. That may or may not represent a strong investment correlation.The equivalent stock performance for PLTR from the initial listing date to now would be as shown below.Some analysts say PLTR is vastly overvalued and looking at the chart below you can see the logic of that argument. Both software companies were up 400%, but one in four months and one in five years.NASDAQ and author4. SBC (Stock Based Compensation) doesn't seem to have hurt Microsoft.One of the arguments Palantir critics often mention is an over-reliance on SBC driving up the PLTR share count from about 900 million in the 3rd quarter of 2020 to about two billion in the 3rd quarter of 2021.Seeking AlphaOf course, those numbers do not include options provided to employees that have not been cashed in yet.But if you look at MSFT, they have generated four billionaires and at least 12,000 millionaires.The company's 1986initial public offering(IPO), and subsequent rise in its share price, created three billionaires and an estimated 12,000 millionaires among Microsoft employees.Source:WikipediaAdd Steve Ballmer's $120 billion to the billionaire's list(see here)although he came to the party later. I am sure Steve had a ton ofSBC.As a comparison to MSFT's 12,000 millionaires, PLTR only has about 3,000 employees.Since MSFT currently has a market value of $2.5 trillion versus PLTR $40 billion, it would be hard to argue that SBC will hold PLTR back long-term.Conclusion:Artificial Intelligence without data (lots of data) is like Artificial Flowers - pretty, but borderline useless.That's why PLTR's current data acquisition/manipulation operating systems, Foundry and Gotham, are so important to their AI efforts. Those who have the best quality data will have the best AI.There can be little doubt that data and its related AI will be everywhere soon, from your phone to your TV to your garage door opener.And we are not talking about just digital data either. There will be data acquisition of voice, terrain, faxes, encrypted messages, texts, photographs, physical movements, people, and things.How about the distance, speed, and spin of every golf stroke on the PGA Tour?And Steph Curry's individual finger grip pressure, ball rotation, and tightness of his shoestrings on every 30-foot 3-pointer he makes?While the current estimates for the amount of data available and captured over the next 5, 10, or 20 years are high and growing, I think it is still vastly underestimated.That's what Palantir knows and why it is an excellent long-term investment.Buy PLTR if you have a long-term investment plan. It will prosper in any economic environment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004165637,"gmtCreate":1642544795929,"gmtModify":1676533719839,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks","listText":"thanks","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004165637","repostId":"9004960846","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9004960846,"gmtCreate":1642476000632,"gmtModify":1676533714178,"author":{"id":"3527667621665671","authorId":"3527667621665671","name":"Daily_Discussion","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6973ef3354e752778088dfd8ca725c82","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667621665671","authorIdStr":"3527667621665671"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀[Jan 18th]Share your trades today with others >>","htmlText":"Hi,Tigers! Welcome to our official column:Daily Discussion! Here you can share your trading ideas, your opinions&nbsp;on&nbsp;market trends,the&nbsp;stocks you like(bullish on)or dislike(bearish on),and&nbsp;your investment performances,etc.. If you leave your thoughts in the comment area, you may receive Tiger Coinsas reward&nbsp;which can be used at Gift Center! Below are Today's Key Takeaways. Top News Move the Market Daily Focus&nbsp;Tuesday Afternoon Recap(Friday) U.S. equity markets finished the day mixed, with the S&amp;P 500 +0.08%, the Dow -0.56%, the Nasdaq +0.59%, and the Russell 2000 +0.14%. Within the S&amp;P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished lower.The leading sectors were Energy +2.45%, Technology +0.89%, and Communication Services +0.53%.The laggards were Real Estate -1.","listText":"Hi,Tigers! Welcome to our official column:Daily Discussion! Here you can share your trading ideas, your opinions&nbsp;on&nbsp;market trends,the&nbsp;stocks you like(bullish on)or dislike(bearish on),and&nbsp;your investment performances,etc.. If you leave your thoughts in the comment area, you may receive Tiger Coinsas reward&nbsp;which can be used at Gift Center! Below are Today's Key Takeaways. Top News Move the Market Daily Focus&nbsp;Tuesday Afternoon Recap(Friday) U.S. equity markets finished the day mixed, with the S&amp;P 500 +0.08%, the Dow -0.56%, the Nasdaq +0.59%, and the Russell 2000 +0.14%. Within the S&amp;P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished lower.The leading sectors were Energy +2.45%, Technology +0.89%, and Communication Services +0.53%.The laggards were Real Estate -1.","text":"Hi,Tigers! Welcome to our official column:Daily Discussion! Here you can share your trading ideas, your opinions on market trends,the stocks you like(bullish on)or dislike(bearish on),and your investment performances,etc.. If you leave your thoughts in the comment area, you may receive Tiger Coinsas reward which can be used at Gift Center! Below are Today's Key Takeaways. Top News Move the Market Daily Focus Tuesday Afternoon Recap(Friday) U.S. equity markets finished the day mixed, with the S&P 500 +0.08%, the Dow -0.56%, the Nasdaq +0.59%, and the Russell 2000 +0.14%. Within the S&P 500, seven of the 11 sectors finished lower.The leading sectors were Energy +2.45%, Technology +0.89%, and Communication Services +0.53%.The laggards were Real Estate -1.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c20c3c86272e204449ebf120b8aa350","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004960846","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005734873,"gmtCreate":1642404093133,"gmtModify":1676533708169,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005734873","repostId":"2203192728","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2203192728","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1642375676,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2203192728?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-17 07:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall St Week Ahead-Earnings to Test Growth Stocks after Rocky Start to Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2203192728","media":"Reuters","summary":"A rough start to 2022 for U.S. tech and growth stocks is raising stakes for upcoming earnings reports, as investors seek reasons to keep faith in the shares while bracing for U.S. interest rate hikes.The S&P 500 information technology sector   , which accounts for nearly 29% of the broader index’s weight, is down 5.5% year-to-date, including steep declines in shares of heavyweights such as Microsoft    and Nvidia   , both off roughly 9%. The overall S&P 500    has fallen 2.7%.Tech bulls hope a s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A rough start to 2022 for U.S. tech and growth stocks is raising stakes for upcoming earnings reports, as investors seek reasons to keep faith in the shares while bracing for U.S. interest rate hikes.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 information technology sector   , which accounts for nearly 29% of the broader index’s weight, is down 5.5% year-to-date, including steep declines in shares of heavyweights such as Microsoft    and Nvidia   , both off roughly 9%. The overall S&amp;P 500    has fallen 2.7%.</p><p>Tech bulls hope a strong earnings season can blunt some of the pain, which many pin on rising Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy and hike rates aggressively to fight inflation.</p><p>As the Fed increases short-term rates, investors will keep an eye on how high longer-term U.S. Treasury yields rise. Higher yields more steeply discount the value of future profits, which can especially pressure growth stocks.</p><p>&#34;Given the performance of these tech names here recently, will earnings be a savior for them?&#34; said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital. &#34;Over the next month,  seeing how some of these tech names respond to their numbers ... will be interesting.&#34;</p><p>Fourth-quarter results season kicks into high gear this week, with overall S&amp;P 500 earnings expected to climb 23.1%, according to Refinitiv IBES. Technology sector earnings are expected to rise by 15.6%, as other groups have benefited more from the economy&#39;s rebound from pandemic lockdowns in 2020.</p><p>Companies in the S&amp;P 500 growth index   , which is replete with tech stocks, are expected to increase earnings 16%, compared to a 26% rise for the S&amp;P 500 value index   , more heavily weighted in banks, industrials and other economically sensitive companies, according to Credit Suisse.</p><p>Higher interest rates could pressure the stretched valuations of tech stocks, so companies need to deliver impressive numbers in coming weeks, said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners.</p><p>&#34;To have the (stock) price go up even in a rising rate/falling multiple environment, you have to show demand for the product,&#34; she said.</p><p>The tech sector is trading at about 27 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, near its highest in 18 years, compared to 21 times for the overall S&amp;P 500, according to Refinitiv Datstream.</p><p>Netflix   , whose shares have slumped over 14% to start the year, reports on Thursday, the first results from the closely watched &#34;FAANG&#34; group of large growth companies. Investors will watch the streaming giant&#39;s plans for generating content and its outlook for subscribers.</p><p>“If they can surprise to the upside on the number of subscribers, I think that is going to be great for the stock price,” said King Lip, chief strategist at Baker Avenue Asset Management, which owns Netflix shares.</p><p>Among the tech and growth names that have struggled in January are <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>    and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>.com   , both down about 9%, and DocuSign   , which has dropped about 15%.</p><p>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>   , which is filled with growth stocks and was the top-performing U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar in 2020, is down over 16% so far this year.</p><p>Yet not everyone is convinced Treasury yields will rise much more, or that investors should flee tech shares as the Fed raises rates.</p><p>Analysts at Goldman Sachs see the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 2% by the end of the year, &#34;suggesting only a modest further move in longer-term yields,&#34; while &#34;the likelihood of slowing economic growth in 2022 is an argument in favor of growth stocks.&#34;</p><p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note    stood at 1.76% on Friday, after topping 1.8% earlier in the week.</p><p>A study by the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, meanwhile, found the tech sector appreciated an average of 48.1% during five periods of rising interest rates since the 1990s.</p><p><b>Week ahead</b></p><p>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.</p><p><b>Notable U.S. corporate earnings</b></p><p><b>TUESDAY:</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR</p><p><b>WEDNESDAY:</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST</p><p><b>THURSDAY:</b></p><p>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY</p><p><b>FRIDAY:</b></p><p>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN</p><p>U.S. economic reports</p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET</p><p>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.</p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.</p><p>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.</p><p>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.</p><p>The Wells Fargo institute has a favorable rating on the tech sector, along with communication services, industrials and financials.</p><p>&#34;This is all a very recent thing where people have almost talked themselves into tech as being rate sensitive,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo institute.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall St Week Ahead-Earnings to Test Growth Stocks after Rocky Start to Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall St Week Ahead-Earnings to Test Growth Stocks after Rocky Start to Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-17 07:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>A rough start to 2022 for U.S. tech and growth stocks is raising stakes for upcoming earnings reports, as investors seek reasons to keep faith in the shares while bracing for U.S. interest rate hikes.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 information technology sector   , which accounts for nearly 29% of the broader index’s weight, is down 5.5% year-to-date, including steep declines in shares of heavyweights such as Microsoft    and Nvidia   , both off roughly 9%. The overall S&amp;P 500    has fallen 2.7%.</p><p>Tech bulls hope a strong earnings season can blunt some of the pain, which many pin on rising Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy and hike rates aggressively to fight inflation.</p><p>As the Fed increases short-term rates, investors will keep an eye on how high longer-term U.S. Treasury yields rise. Higher yields more steeply discount the value of future profits, which can especially pressure growth stocks.</p><p>&#34;Given the performance of these tech names here recently, will earnings be a savior for them?&#34; said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital. &#34;Over the next month,  seeing how some of these tech names respond to their numbers ... will be interesting.&#34;</p><p>Fourth-quarter results season kicks into high gear this week, with overall S&amp;P 500 earnings expected to climb 23.1%, according to Refinitiv IBES. Technology sector earnings are expected to rise by 15.6%, as other groups have benefited more from the economy&#39;s rebound from pandemic lockdowns in 2020.</p><p>Companies in the S&amp;P 500 growth index   , which is replete with tech stocks, are expected to increase earnings 16%, compared to a 26% rise for the S&amp;P 500 value index   , more heavily weighted in banks, industrials and other economically sensitive companies, according to Credit Suisse.</p><p>Higher interest rates could pressure the stretched valuations of tech stocks, so companies need to deliver impressive numbers in coming weeks, said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners.</p><p>&#34;To have the (stock) price go up even in a rising rate/falling multiple environment, you have to show demand for the product,&#34; she said.</p><p>The tech sector is trading at about 27 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, near its highest in 18 years, compared to 21 times for the overall S&amp;P 500, according to Refinitiv Datstream.</p><p>Netflix   , whose shares have slumped over 14% to start the year, reports on Thursday, the first results from the closely watched &#34;FAANG&#34; group of large growth companies. Investors will watch the streaming giant&#39;s plans for generating content and its outlook for subscribers.</p><p>“If they can surprise to the upside on the number of subscribers, I think that is going to be great for the stock price,” said King Lip, chief strategist at Baker Avenue Asset Management, which owns Netflix shares.</p><p>Among the tech and growth names that have struggled in January are <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>    and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>.com   , both down about 9%, and DocuSign   , which has dropped about 15%.</p><p>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>   , which is filled with growth stocks and was the top-performing U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar in 2020, is down over 16% so far this year.</p><p>Yet not everyone is convinced Treasury yields will rise much more, or that investors should flee tech shares as the Fed raises rates.</p><p>Analysts at Goldman Sachs see the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 2% by the end of the year, &#34;suggesting only a modest further move in longer-term yields,&#34; while &#34;the likelihood of slowing economic growth in 2022 is an argument in favor of growth stocks.&#34;</p><p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note    stood at 1.76% on Friday, after topping 1.8% earlier in the week.</p><p>A study by the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, meanwhile, found the tech sector appreciated an average of 48.1% during five periods of rising interest rates since the 1990s.</p><p><b>Week ahead</b></p><p>U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.</p><p><b>Notable U.S. corporate earnings</b></p><p><b>TUESDAY:</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKR</p><p><b>WEDNESDAY:</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter &amp; Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FAST</p><p><b>THURSDAY:</b></p><p>Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEY</p><p><b>FRIDAY:</b></p><p>Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN</p><p>U.S. economic reports</p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p>Empire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ET</p><p>NAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.</p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p>Building permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.</p><p>Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.</p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p>Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.</p><p>Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.</p><p>The Wells Fargo institute has a favorable rating on the tech sector, along with communication services, industrials and financials.</p><p>&#34;This is all a very recent thing where people have almost talked themselves into tech as being rate sensitive,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo institute.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","CRM":"赛富时","ADBE":"Adobe","DOCU":"Docusign","NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","NFLX":"奈飞","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2203192728","content_text":"A rough start to 2022 for U.S. tech and growth stocks is raising stakes for upcoming earnings reports, as investors seek reasons to keep faith in the shares while bracing for U.S. interest rate hikes.The S&P 500 information technology sector   , which accounts for nearly 29% of the broader index’s weight, is down 5.5% year-to-date, including steep declines in shares of heavyweights such as Microsoft    and Nvidia   , both off roughly 9%. The overall S&P 500    has fallen 2.7%.Tech bulls hope a strong earnings season can blunt some of the pain, which many pin on rising Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy and hike rates aggressively to fight inflation.As the Fed increases short-term rates, investors will keep an eye on how high longer-term U.S. Treasury yields rise. Higher yields more steeply discount the value of future profits, which can especially pressure growth stocks.\"Given the performance of these tech names here recently, will earnings be a savior for them?\" said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital. \"Over the next month,  seeing how some of these tech names respond to their numbers ... will be interesting.\"Fourth-quarter results season kicks into high gear this week, with overall S&P 500 earnings expected to climb 23.1%, according to Refinitiv IBES. Technology sector earnings are expected to rise by 15.6%, as other groups have benefited more from the economy's rebound from pandemic lockdowns in 2020.Companies in the S&P 500 growth index   , which is replete with tech stocks, are expected to increase earnings 16%, compared to a 26% rise for the S&P 500 value index   , more heavily weighted in banks, industrials and other economically sensitive companies, according to Credit Suisse.Higher interest rates could pressure the stretched valuations of tech stocks, so companies need to deliver impressive numbers in coming weeks, said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners.\"To have the (stock) price go up even in a rising rate/falling multiple environment, you have to show demand for the product,\" she said.The tech sector is trading at about 27 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, near its highest in 18 years, compared to 21 times for the overall S&P 500, according to Refinitiv Datstream.Netflix   , whose shares have slumped over 14% to start the year, reports on Thursday, the first results from the closely watched \"FAANG\" group of large growth companies. Investors will watch the streaming giant's plans for generating content and its outlook for subscribers.“If they can surprise to the upside on the number of subscribers, I think that is going to be great for the stock price,” said King Lip, chief strategist at Baker Avenue Asset Management, which owns Netflix shares.Among the tech and growth names that have struggled in January are Adobe    and Salesforce.com   , both down about 9%, and DocuSign   , which has dropped about 15%.The ARK Innovation ETF   , which is filled with growth stocks and was the top-performing U.S. equity fund tracked by Morningstar in 2020, is down over 16% so far this year.Yet not everyone is convinced Treasury yields will rise much more, or that investors should flee tech shares as the Fed raises rates.Analysts at Goldman Sachs see the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 2% by the end of the year, \"suggesting only a modest further move in longer-term yields,\" while \"the likelihood of slowing economic growth in 2022 is an argument in favor of growth stocks.\"The yield on the 10-year Treasury note    stood at 1.76% on Friday, after topping 1.8% earlier in the week.A study by the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, meanwhile, found the tech sector appreciated an average of 48.1% during five periods of rising interest rates since the 1990s.Week aheadU.S. markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.Notable U.S. corporate earningsTUESDAY:Goldman Sachs Group GS, Truist Financial Corp. TFC, Signature Bank SBNY, PNC Financial PNC, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. IBKRWEDNESDAY:Morgan Stanley MS, Bank of America BAC, U.S. Bancorp. USB, State Street Corp. STT, UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, Procter & Gamble PG, Kinder Morgan KMI, Fastenal Co. FASTTHURSDAY:Netflix NFLX, United Airlines Holdings UAL, American Airlines AAL, Baker Hughes BKR, Discover Financial Services DFS, CSX Corp. CSX, Union Pacific Corp. UNP, The Travelers Cos. Inc. TRV, Intuitive Surgical Inc. ISRG, KeyCorp. KEYFRIDAY:Schlumberger SLB, Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBANU.S. economic reportsTuesdayEmpire State manufacturing index for January due at 8:30 a.m. ETNAHB home builders index for January at 10 a.m.WednesdayBuilding permits and starts for December at 8:30 a.m.Philly Fed Index for January at 8:30 a.m.ThursdayInitial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 15 (and continuing claims for Jan. 8) at 8:30 a.m.Existing home sales for December at 10 a.m.The Wells Fargo institute has a favorable rating on the tech sector, along with communication services, industrials and financials.\"This is all a very recent thing where people have almost talked themselves into tech as being rate sensitive,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo institute.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005252576,"gmtCreate":1642323535249,"gmtModify":1676533701272,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005252576","repostId":"1161593163","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005376376,"gmtCreate":1642200304844,"gmtModify":1676533690741,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Thank you&nbsp;","text":"Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005376376","repostId":"1165451504","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165451504","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642174174,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165451504?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-14 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading, with Marvell Technology and TSM rising over 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165451504","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading, with Marvell Technology and TSM rising over 3%.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading, with Marvell Technology and TSM rising over 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f337309d9df997d8c362c38cb65c0c\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1111fedd2c1626a71dcfd86e7480cc61\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"635\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading, with Marvell Technology and TSM rising over 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading, with Marvell Technology and TSM rising over 3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-14 23:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading, with Marvell Technology and TSM rising over 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f337309d9df997d8c362c38cb65c0c\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1111fedd2c1626a71dcfd86e7480cc61\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"635\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRVL":"迈威尔科技","TSM":"台积电","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165451504","content_text":"Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading, with Marvell Technology and TSM rising over 3%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863902049,"gmtCreate":1632351040981,"gmtModify":1676530757444,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally","listText":"Finally","text":"Finally","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863902049","repostId":"1146187405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146187405","pubTimestamp":1632303895,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146187405?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-22 17:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed in focus today with taper talk and new dot plot engrossing Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146187405","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The Federal Reserve takes center stage, but the decision could well be a dud for a market that's bee","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve takes center stage, but the decision could well be a dud for a market that's been hyping up big macro events lately.</p>\n<p>This is certainly the most important FOMC meeting since, well, the last FOMC meeting. But if Chairman Jay Powell and company avoid taper talk and keep rate forecasts steady, Wall Street could shrug it off, like recent jobs and inflation reports.</p>\n<p>While nobody expects a rate hike when the statement arrives, there'scertainly a lot for the Fed to consider.</p>\n<p>\"Fed has to navigate desire to taper asset purchases through land mine of uncertainties about the economy and the risks posed by variants, debt ceiling politics, China &amp; inflation,\" Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, tweeted yesterday.</p>\n<p>Stock index futures are higher after dip-buying faded yesterday and the broader market closed lower again. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 1 basis point to 1.33%.</p>\n<p>There is some speculation that the recent market selloff, with the S&amp;P looking at itsworst monthly performance in a year, could make Fed members gun-shy about a hawkish tilt. But Renaissance Macro Research says the current selloff is \"not even close to having the Fed shift course.\"</p>\n<p>The \"S&amp;P 500(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)is basically flat since the Fed’s July 28 confab,\" RenMac tweets. \"When we think about the last few times China was the source of the concern 2015/2016, the US equity decline was far more pronounced.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2738fa67abd11035dbb2f2a638f54918\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>Asset purchase tapering.</b>Calls for the Fed to trim its $120B per month in asset purchases are growing as inflation heats up. But the consensus is that there will be no official announcement today.</p>\n<p>Two-thirds of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a November announcement, with more than half expecting the Fed to start the taper in December.</p>\n<p>Still, Powell has been adamant he will give ample notice for any moves.</p>\n<p>The August jobs report gave \"the doves on the Federal Reserve’s board, essentially where we think the Chair resides today, some fodder for postponing a tapering of the QE asset purchase program, though we think this would be a mistake,\" BlackRock's Rick Rieder writes. \"Yet, we do believe that we will learn more details in September from the FOMC meeting, relative to what the Fed’s schedule for tapering will be.\"</p>\n<p>A change in the wording of the statement may be where the market gets that signal.</p>\n<p>\"Expect the Fed to put off until November any announcement on slowing its $120 billion a month in asset purchases,\" economist Joseph Brusuelas writes in hisReal Economy Blog. \"If the Fed signals any change, expect different language in the third paragraph of its statement, where the committee may update the risk to the outlook as balanced, which may signal tapering before the end of the year.\"</p>\n<p>\"In 2013, before its previous round of tapering, the Fed used its statement to signal coming policy action, so it may choose to take that approach this week.\"</p>\n<p>Mohamed El-Erian saysthe Fed needs to act as the window to tapering is closing.</p>\n<p><b>Dissecting the dot plot:</b>The latest dot plot chart of Fed member interest rate projections, which caused a stir last time, will also be closely watched, much to the chagrin of Powell.</p>\n<p>The \"sole purpose\" of the \"fabled dot plot ... is to increase confusion and misunderstanding in financial markets,\" UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan writes.</p>\n<p>The dot plot is meant to illustrate where individual members see rates going, but not where they will or necessarily want them to go and the Fed chief has said it is not a great forecaster.</p>\n<p>But if three members raise their 2022 dots, the new median will be for a quarter-point hike that year, and Wall Street banks have been aggressively marketing short-term interest rate derivatives that would pay off with tightening pulled forward, Bloomberg reports. (See chart at the bottom.)</p>\n<p>\"Watch the dots - likely will see initial rate hike pulled into 2022 with more in 2023,\" Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist for Schwab, tweets. \"Look out for unemp projections - will indicate what Fed sees as 'full employment.'\"</p>\n<p><b>Ethics questions:</b>&nbsp;Beyond monetary policy, Powell may face some difficult questions about the recent controversy of the asset portfolios of Fed governors.</p>\n<p>Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan's trading in individual stocks last year, including several megacaps that tend to benefit from lower interest rates, prompted the Fed chairman to&nbsp;open an ethics review.</p>\n<p>And&nbsp;Powell and two other Fed members owned securities that the central bank was buying last year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe97d77d54cfe99de4de152cdfc4ab7\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"698\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed in focus today with taper talk and new dot plot engrossing Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed in focus today with taper talk and new dot plot engrossing Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-22 17:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3742098-fed-in-focus-today-with-taper-talk-and-new-dot-plot-engrossing-wall-street><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve takes center stage, but the decision could well be a dud for a market that's been hyping up big macro events lately.\nThis is certainly the most important FOMC meeting since, well, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3742098-fed-in-focus-today-with-taper-talk-and-new-dot-plot-engrossing-wall-street\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3742098-fed-in-focus-today-with-taper-talk-and-new-dot-plot-engrossing-wall-street","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146187405","content_text":"The Federal Reserve takes center stage, but the decision could well be a dud for a market that's been hyping up big macro events lately.\nThis is certainly the most important FOMC meeting since, well, the last FOMC meeting. But if Chairman Jay Powell and company avoid taper talk and keep rate forecasts steady, Wall Street could shrug it off, like recent jobs and inflation reports.\nWhile nobody expects a rate hike when the statement arrives, there'scertainly a lot for the Fed to consider.\n\"Fed has to navigate desire to taper asset purchases through land mine of uncertainties about the economy and the risks posed by variants, debt ceiling politics, China & inflation,\" Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, tweeted yesterday.\nStock index futures are higher after dip-buying faded yesterday and the broader market closed lower again. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 1 basis point to 1.33%.\nThere is some speculation that the recent market selloff, with the S&P looking at itsworst monthly performance in a year, could make Fed members gun-shy about a hawkish tilt. But Renaissance Macro Research says the current selloff is \"not even close to having the Fed shift course.\"\nThe \"S&P 500(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)is basically flat since the Fed’s July 28 confab,\" RenMac tweets. \"When we think about the last few times China was the source of the concern 2015/2016, the US equity decline was far more pronounced.\"\n\nAsset purchase tapering.Calls for the Fed to trim its $120B per month in asset purchases are growing as inflation heats up. But the consensus is that there will be no official announcement today.\nTwo-thirds of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a November announcement, with more than half expecting the Fed to start the taper in December.\nStill, Powell has been adamant he will give ample notice for any moves.\nThe August jobs report gave \"the doves on the Federal Reserve’s board, essentially where we think the Chair resides today, some fodder for postponing a tapering of the QE asset purchase program, though we think this would be a mistake,\" BlackRock's Rick Rieder writes. \"Yet, we do believe that we will learn more details in September from the FOMC meeting, relative to what the Fed’s schedule for tapering will be.\"\nA change in the wording of the statement may be where the market gets that signal.\n\"Expect the Fed to put off until November any announcement on slowing its $120 billion a month in asset purchases,\" economist Joseph Brusuelas writes in hisReal Economy Blog. \"If the Fed signals any change, expect different language in the third paragraph of its statement, where the committee may update the risk to the outlook as balanced, which may signal tapering before the end of the year.\"\n\"In 2013, before its previous round of tapering, the Fed used its statement to signal coming policy action, so it may choose to take that approach this week.\"\nMohamed El-Erian saysthe Fed needs to act as the window to tapering is closing.\nDissecting the dot plot:The latest dot plot chart of Fed member interest rate projections, which caused a stir last time, will also be closely watched, much to the chagrin of Powell.\nThe \"sole purpose\" of the \"fabled dot plot ... is to increase confusion and misunderstanding in financial markets,\" UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan writes.\nThe dot plot is meant to illustrate where individual members see rates going, but not where they will or necessarily want them to go and the Fed chief has said it is not a great forecaster.\nBut if three members raise their 2022 dots, the new median will be for a quarter-point hike that year, and Wall Street banks have been aggressively marketing short-term interest rate derivatives that would pay off with tightening pulled forward, Bloomberg reports. (See chart at the bottom.)\n\"Watch the dots - likely will see initial rate hike pulled into 2022 with more in 2023,\" Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist for Schwab, tweets. \"Look out for unemp projections - will indicate what Fed sees as 'full employment.'\"\nEthics questions: Beyond monetary policy, Powell may face some difficult questions about the recent controversy of the asset portfolios of Fed governors.\nDallas Fed President Robert Kaplan's trading in individual stocks last year, including several megacaps that tend to benefit from lower interest rates, prompted the Fed chairman to open an ethics review.\nAnd Powell and two other Fed members owned securities that the central bank was buying last year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863906817,"gmtCreate":1632350999439,"gmtModify":1676530757470,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863906817","repostId":"2169572536","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887275846,"gmtCreate":1632056661085,"gmtModify":1676530693581,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887275846","repostId":"2168657952","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":835154192,"gmtCreate":1629697134816,"gmtModify":1676530103079,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice article. Thanks for sharing.","listText":"Nice article. Thanks for sharing.","text":"Nice article. Thanks for sharing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835154192","repostId":"2161272742","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161272742","pubTimestamp":1629691020,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161272742?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks Begging to Be Bought","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161272742","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These Buffett-backed stocks could serve up huge wins for your portfolio.","content":"<p>Warren Buffett became <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>'s CEO all the way back in 1965, a time when the company was valued at roughly $19 per share. The Oracle of Omaha steered the investment conglomerate to legendary success after taking over as its chief executive officer. Today, Berkshire's class A shares trade at roughly $429,700 per share, and the company's returns across Buffett's tenure are even more impressive if you take dividend payments into account.</p>\n<p>With that in mind, three Motley Fool contributors have identified three dividend-paying stocks in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio: <b>Verizon Communications</b> (NYSE:VZ); <b>Mastercard</b>(NYSE:VZ); and <b>Apple </b>(NYSE:VZ). These stocks look poised to continue delivering big wins over the long term. Read on to see why our contributors think that these Buffett-backed, income-generating stocks have what it takes to be standouts in your portfolio.</p>\n<h2><b>Verizon is a dividend juggernaut</b></h2>\n<p><b>Jamal Carnette</b> <b>(Verizon):</b> Who says Warren Buffett isn't a tech investor? After eschewing the sector for years, Buffett has now invested billions in technology companies, including owning 3.8% of Verizon Communications. At current prices, Berskhire's position is worth nearly $9 billion.</p>\n<p>Verizon's dividend has historically been underappreciated. Despite its having a juicy 4.5% yield, many income investors favored the larger 7% payout provided by its telecom competitor <b>AT&amp;T</b>. However, that's about to change.</p>\n<p>Earlier this year, AT&amp;T announced it was spinning off its WarnerMedia division and merging it with <b>Discovery </b>with the split occurring next year. As a result, the company was cutting its dividend. While this move might unlock value for AT&amp;T, it also makes Verizon relatively more attractive for income investors in the telecom space.</p>\n<p>Buffett is a value investor, and Verizon certainly fits the bill. The company currently trades at 10.5 times forward earnings versus 22.3 times for the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>. Verizon's yield of 4.5% is three times the yield of the greater index, and investors are expecting another increase announcement in September, continuing the streak of raises that has occurred every year since 2006.</p>\n<p>Admittedly, Verizon stock has risks. Top-line growth has been difficult to come by, and revenue in 2020 was lower than it was in 2015. The company has significant exposure to landline telephone and cable television businesses, and a significant debt overhang, most of which comes from the $49 billion issuance it undertook to buy out <b>Vodafone</b>'s&nbsp;45% stake of Verizon Wireless in 2014.</p>\n<p>Despite that, Verizon's dividend is safe. Last year, the company generated more than $20 billion in free cash flow, more than double dividend payouts. Verizon's predictable, subscription-based businesses will ensure investors can look forward to dividends (and increases) for years to come. Warren Buffett and Berkshire know a strong company when they see <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>.</p>\n<h2>Don't let this payment giant's low yield -- or huge size -- keep you away</h2>\n<p><b>Jason Hall</b> <b>(Mastercard):</b> With a dividend yield south of 0.5% at recent prices, investors looking for yield often overlook Mastercard. Ironically, growth investors might <i>also</i> eschew the company, assuming that with a market cap above $351 billion, its growth days are over.</p>\n<p>I think investors in <i>either</i> camp are making a mistake to skip Mastercard. Simply put, this stalwart's scale and brand power have it lined up to ride a massive wave of digital-payments growth around the world in the decades ahead.</p>\n<p>Mastercard has a massive economic moat in its trusted, well-known payments network that gives it a massive network effect advantage. Having a relationship -- whether as a cardholder, accepting merchant, or a bank that issues Mastercard -- gives you access to the other two. And the more of each that is a Mastercard partner, the more of the others that want access. That's a killer advantage.</p>\n<p>This economic moat is why Mastercard's stock has consistently outperformed the S&amp;P 500 on just about every three-, five-, and 10-year period since going public, and is likely to continue outperforming. It's also likely the reason why Mastercard is in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.</p>\n<p>One last thing: The yield may be low, but the dividend&nbsp;<i>growth&nbsp;</i>is incredible. Here's how much it's increased since being implemented, juicing Mastercard's total returns an extra 570%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18eba4fc8baaec5791cb8d23115229e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MA data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>That's a&nbsp;<i>lot&nbsp;</i>of juice from a relatively low dividend yield, powered by incredible growth.</p>\n<h2><b>Investors can win with Berkshire's biggest stock holding&nbsp;</b></h2>\n<p><b>Keith Noonan (Apple): </b>The company has been on an incredible run. It's posted a total return of roughly 675% over the last decade, with gains spurred by strong sales for its hardware and impressive growth in the software and services space. In light of that gravity-defying performance, it's not unreasonable to wonder whether the tech giant still has room for big growth.</p>\n<p>Apple already has an eye-catching market capitalization of roughly $2.45 trillion, and it sits atop the list of the world's most valuable companies. While relative growth will be tougher to come by as the company continues to increase in size, Apple still has an unmatched position in the consumer electronics industry. Technology will only become increasingly important in the average person's daily life, and Apple is fantastically positioned to capitalize on some of the world's biggest emerging technology trends.</p>\n<p>The company's phones and tablets will play a huge role in ushering in the age of 5G networks, which will enable dramatically faster upload and download speeds that make new kinds of software applications possible. Apple is also likely to be a leader in the augmented reality (AR) space. Next-generation network technology will help pave the way for new AR hardware and software applications, and Apple's current leadership position in mobile and wearable computing suggests that the company is likely to be one of the biggest winners if augmented reality takes off.</p>\n<p>With the company's dividend yield coming in at roughly 0.6% despite years of strong payout growth, it might come as a surprise to hear that Apple's dividend posted a much greater yield at earlier dates. Consider that the stock yielded more than 2.6% for a stretch of time back in 2013. Apple has boosted its payout 132.5% since it began paying a dividend in 2012, but market-crushing capital appreciation has outpaced payout growth. Not to worry. The technology leader should be able to continue posting strong earnings growth and hiking its dividend payout, and long-term investors will likely see strong impressive returns from the stock.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks Begging to Be Bought</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks Begging to Be Bought\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-23 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/22/3-warren-buffett-dividend-stocks-begging-to-be-bou/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett became Berkshire Hathaway's CEO all the way back in 1965, a time when the company was valued at roughly $19 per share. The Oracle of Omaha steered the investment conglomerate to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/22/3-warren-buffett-dividend-stocks-begging-to-be-bou/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AAPL":"苹果","VZ":"威瑞森"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/22/3-warren-buffett-dividend-stocks-begging-to-be-bou/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161272742","content_text":"Warren Buffett became Berkshire Hathaway's CEO all the way back in 1965, a time when the company was valued at roughly $19 per share. The Oracle of Omaha steered the investment conglomerate to legendary success after taking over as its chief executive officer. Today, Berkshire's class A shares trade at roughly $429,700 per share, and the company's returns across Buffett's tenure are even more impressive if you take dividend payments into account.\nWith that in mind, three Motley Fool contributors have identified three dividend-paying stocks in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio: Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ); Mastercard(NYSE:VZ); and Apple (NYSE:VZ). These stocks look poised to continue delivering big wins over the long term. Read on to see why our contributors think that these Buffett-backed, income-generating stocks have what it takes to be standouts in your portfolio.\nVerizon is a dividend juggernaut\nJamal Carnette (Verizon): Who says Warren Buffett isn't a tech investor? After eschewing the sector for years, Buffett has now invested billions in technology companies, including owning 3.8% of Verizon Communications. At current prices, Berskhire's position is worth nearly $9 billion.\nVerizon's dividend has historically been underappreciated. Despite its having a juicy 4.5% yield, many income investors favored the larger 7% payout provided by its telecom competitor AT&T. However, that's about to change.\nEarlier this year, AT&T announced it was spinning off its WarnerMedia division and merging it with Discovery with the split occurring next year. As a result, the company was cutting its dividend. While this move might unlock value for AT&T, it also makes Verizon relatively more attractive for income investors in the telecom space.\nBuffett is a value investor, and Verizon certainly fits the bill. The company currently trades at 10.5 times forward earnings versus 22.3 times for the S&P 500. Verizon's yield of 4.5% is three times the yield of the greater index, and investors are expecting another increase announcement in September, continuing the streak of raises that has occurred every year since 2006.\nAdmittedly, Verizon stock has risks. Top-line growth has been difficult to come by, and revenue in 2020 was lower than it was in 2015. The company has significant exposure to landline telephone and cable television businesses, and a significant debt overhang, most of which comes from the $49 billion issuance it undertook to buy out Vodafone's 45% stake of Verizon Wireless in 2014.\nDespite that, Verizon's dividend is safe. Last year, the company generated more than $20 billion in free cash flow, more than double dividend payouts. Verizon's predictable, subscription-based businesses will ensure investors can look forward to dividends (and increases) for years to come. Warren Buffett and Berkshire know a strong company when they see one.\nDon't let this payment giant's low yield -- or huge size -- keep you away\nJason Hall (Mastercard): With a dividend yield south of 0.5% at recent prices, investors looking for yield often overlook Mastercard. Ironically, growth investors might also eschew the company, assuming that with a market cap above $351 billion, its growth days are over.\nI think investors in either camp are making a mistake to skip Mastercard. Simply put, this stalwart's scale and brand power have it lined up to ride a massive wave of digital-payments growth around the world in the decades ahead.\nMastercard has a massive economic moat in its trusted, well-known payments network that gives it a massive network effect advantage. Having a relationship -- whether as a cardholder, accepting merchant, or a bank that issues Mastercard -- gives you access to the other two. And the more of each that is a Mastercard partner, the more of the others that want access. That's a killer advantage.\nThis economic moat is why Mastercard's stock has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 on just about every three-, five-, and 10-year period since going public, and is likely to continue outperforming. It's also likely the reason why Mastercard is in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.\nOne last thing: The yield may be low, but the dividend growth is incredible. Here's how much it's increased since being implemented, juicing Mastercard's total returns an extra 570%:\nMA data by YCharts\nThat's a lot of juice from a relatively low dividend yield, powered by incredible growth.\nInvestors can win with Berkshire's biggest stock holding \nKeith Noonan (Apple): The company has been on an incredible run. It's posted a total return of roughly 675% over the last decade, with gains spurred by strong sales for its hardware and impressive growth in the software and services space. In light of that gravity-defying performance, it's not unreasonable to wonder whether the tech giant still has room for big growth.\nApple already has an eye-catching market capitalization of roughly $2.45 trillion, and it sits atop the list of the world's most valuable companies. While relative growth will be tougher to come by as the company continues to increase in size, Apple still has an unmatched position in the consumer electronics industry. Technology will only become increasingly important in the average person's daily life, and Apple is fantastically positioned to capitalize on some of the world's biggest emerging technology trends.\nThe company's phones and tablets will play a huge role in ushering in the age of 5G networks, which will enable dramatically faster upload and download speeds that make new kinds of software applications possible. Apple is also likely to be a leader in the augmented reality (AR) space. Next-generation network technology will help pave the way for new AR hardware and software applications, and Apple's current leadership position in mobile and wearable computing suggests that the company is likely to be one of the biggest winners if augmented reality takes off.\nWith the company's dividend yield coming in at roughly 0.6% despite years of strong payout growth, it might come as a surprise to hear that Apple's dividend posted a much greater yield at earlier dates. Consider that the stock yielded more than 2.6% for a stretch of time back in 2013. Apple has boosted its payout 132.5% since it began paying a dividend in 2012, but market-crushing capital appreciation has outpaced payout growth. Not to worry. The technology leader should be able to continue posting strong earnings growth and hiking its dividend payout, and long-term investors will likely see strong impressive returns from the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833748854,"gmtCreate":1629267861178,"gmtModify":1676529984986,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833748854","repostId":"1114320591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114320591","pubTimestamp":1629255336,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114320591?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks I'm Never Selling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114320591","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The best investors in the world swear by holding high-quality companies for decades on end. These stocks fit that bill.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Time plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.</li>\n <li>These three business titans are leaders in their fields.</li>\n <li>They are also built to last for a very long time.</li>\n</ul>\n<p></p>\n<p>I'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.</p>\n<p>Let me show you why I intend to hold&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:NFLX),<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and&nbsp;<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.</p>\n<p><b>1. Netflix</b></p>\n<p>First, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in&nbsp;2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.</p>\n<p>Going all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646be4c2a73d68810e962c19efe82476\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>NFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p>\n<p>Netflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.</p>\n<p>These days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.</p>\n<p><b>2. Alphabet</b></p>\n<p>Alphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.</p>\n<p>By 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.</p>\n<p>Google is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.</p>\n<p>If the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb97b6814df65240bd8f0b4a0690e77e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p>\n<p>Alphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.</p>\n<p><b>3. Walt Disney</b></p>\n<p>And then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.</p>\n<p>The leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.</p>\n<p>Times are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.</p>\n<p>The company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.</p>\n<p>The coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110cd288830d0e354767349fe36259e6\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<p><b>The common denominator</b></p>\n<p>These three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.</p>\n<p>Lots of&nbsp;time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.</p>\n<p>For example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with&nbsp;the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks I'm Never Selling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks I'm Never Selling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key Points\n\nTime plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.\nThese three business titans are leaders in their fields.\nThey are also built to last for a very long time.\n\n\nI'm ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114320591","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTime plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.\nThese three business titans are leaders in their fields.\nThey are also built to last for a very long time.\n\n\nI'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.\nLet me show you why I intend to hold Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX),Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.\n1. Netflix\nFirst, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in 2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.\nGoing all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:\nNFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.\nNetflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.\nThese days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.\n2. Alphabet\nAlphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.\nBy 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.\nGoogle is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.\nIf the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.\nGOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.\nAlphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.\n3. Walt Disney\nAnd then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.\nThe leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.\nTimes are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.\nThe company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.\nThe coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nThe common denominator\nThese three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.\nLots of time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.\nFor example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085229266,"gmtCreate":1650711877403,"gmtModify":1676534780963,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085229266","repostId":"2229416577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2229416577","pubTimestamp":1650684004,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2229416577?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-23 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Vs. Amazon Stock: Back To Fundamentals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229416577","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe stock market is notorious for completely ignoring business fundamentals at its extremes: ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The stock market is notorious for completely ignoring business fundamentals at its extremes: Either extreme greed or extreme fear.</li><li>A comparison between Alibaba and Amazon serves as an illustrating example of both of these extremes.</li><li>Alibaba now is completely dominated by fear, and its superior fundamentals are completely ignored by the market.</li><li>Amazon, on the other hand, despite its inferior profitability and mounting cash flow issues, trades at a considerable premium, not only relative to Alibaba but also to the overall market.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8b5ac1c4e34f0e556f966ee340d8118\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>alexsl/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>The stock market is notorious for completely ignoring business fundamentals at both the greed and feel extreme, as illustrated by the current conditions of Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The contrast between these two stocks is so stark that it not only serves to show a specific investment opportunity but also serves as a general example of market psychology. Admittedly, these two stocks are not entirely comparable and there are certainly differences. Some of the uncertainties and risks faced by BABA are not shared by AMZN.</p><p>And my thesis here is that the current market valuation has already priced in all the risks surrounding BABA. More specifically,</p><ul><li>BABA&#39;s stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 10%-plus in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals. On the other hand, AMZN&#39;s stock price seemed to be immune from news and fundamentals. It has been trading sideways in a narrow range (and at an elevated valuation) despite its mounting cash flow issues and all the geopolitical and macroeconomic risks.</li><li>As shown in the next chart, both BABA and AMZN are valued at about 1.8x and 3.2x price to sales ratio, respectively, a discount by almost a factor of 2x (1.8x to be exact). As we look deeper next, the discount becomes even larger than on the surface. The second chart compares the profit margin between BABA and Amazon. BABA&#39;s EBIT profit margin is almost twice that of Amazon - not only shows BABA&#39;s superior profitability (and AMZN&#39;s concerning and deteriorating profitability) but also further highlights the valuation gap. The sales of BABA should be worth about 2x as valuable as that of AMZN because of the higher margin, but the current valuation is the opposite. And as you were seeing the remainder of this article, BABA also enjoys superior fundamentals in other keys aspects, such as R&amp;D output, return on capital employed, and growth potential.</li><li>Finally, aside from their drastically different valuations, there are many comparable aspects between these two e-commerce giants. And a comparison between them could also provide insights into the evolving e-commerce landscape. Comparing what they are researching and developing gives us a peek at the future investment direction in this space.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edc32a62854da273e12174d4c8743211\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9307ef042b92a9964176e9d55e850efc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><b>Both R&amp;D aggressively but BABA enjoys way better yield</b></p><p>As mentioned in our earlier writings, we do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we are more focused on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&amp;D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&amp;D <i>process</i>.</p><p>So let&#39;s first see how well and sustainably BABA and AMZN can fund their new R&amp;D efforts. The short answer is: Extremely well. The next chart shows the R&amp;D expenses of BABA and AMZN over the past decade. As seen, both have been consistently investing heavily in R&amp;D in recent years. AMZN didn&#39;t spend meaningfully on R&amp;D before 2016. But since 2016, AMZN on average has been spending about 12% of its total revenue on R&amp;D efforts. And BABA spends a bit less, on average 10%. Both levels are consistent with the average of other overachievers in the tech space, such as the FAAMG group.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7e323032c8f5c21cefbaad05f431d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>Then the next question is, how effective is their R&amp;D process? This is where the contrast kicks in as shown in the next chart. The chart shows a variation of Buffett&#39;s $1 test on R&amp;D expenses. Advised by Buffett, we do not only listen to CEOs&#39; pitches on their brilliant new ideas that will shake the earth (again). We also examine the financials to see if their words are corroborated by the numbers. And in BABA and AMZN&#39;s cases, their numbers are shown here. The analysis method is detailed in our earlier writings and in summary:</p><blockquote><ul><li><i>The purpose of any corporate R&amp;D is obviously to generate profit. Therefore, this analysis quantifies the yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&amp;D expenditures. We used the operating cash flow as the measure for profit.</i></li><li><i>Also, most R&amp;D investments do not produce any result in the same year. They typically have a lifetime of a few years. Therefore, this analysis assumes a three-year average investment cycle for R&amp;D. And as a result, we used the three-year moving average of operating cash flow to represent this three-year cycle.</i></li></ul></blockquote><p>As you can see, the R&amp;D yield for both has been remarkably consistent although at different levels. In BABA&#39;s case, its R&amp;D yield has been steady around an average of $3.3 in recent years. This level of R&amp;D yield is very competitive even among the overachieving FAAMG group. The FAAMG group boasts an average R&amp;D yield of around $2 to $2.5 in recent years. And the only one that generates a significantly high R&amp;D yield in this group is Apple (AAPL), which generates an R&amp;D yield of $4.7 of profit output from every $1 of R&amp;D expenses.</p><p>AMZN&#39;s R&amp;D yield of $0.9, on the other hand, is substantially lower than BABA&#39;s and is also the lowest among the FAAMG group. And note that since AMZN didn&#39;t spend meaningfully on R&amp;D before 2016, we only started reporting its R&amp;D yield starting in 2016.</p><p>Next, we will examine their profitability to fuel their R&amp;D efforts sustainably and also dive into some of the specific R&amp;D efforts they are undertaking.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900e44a75dee8b7ca4ba98a4fd84fe9f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author</span></p><p><b>BABA enjoys far superior profitability</b></p><p>As explained in our earlier writings, to us, the most important profitability measure is ROCE (return on capital employed) because:</p><blockquote><i>ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income - a key to estimating the long-term growth rate. Because when we think as long-term business owners, the growth rate is &#34;simply&#34; the product of ROCE and reinvestment rate, i.e.,</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * Reinvestment Rate</i></blockquote><p>The ROCE of both stocks has been detailed in our earlier articles and I will just directly quote the results below. In this analysis, I consider the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, and C) Research and development expenses are also capitalized. As you can see, BABA was able to maintain a remarkably high ROCE over the past decade. It has been astronomical in the early part of the decade exceeding 150%. It has declined due to all the drama in recent years that you are familiar with (China&#39;s tightened regulations, high tax rates, slow-down of the overall economic growth in China, et al). But still, its ROCE is on average about 95% in recent years.</p><p>AMZN&#39;s ROCE has shown a similar pattern. It too has enjoyed a much higher ROCE in the early part of the decade. And it too has witnessed a steady decline over the years. In recent years, its ROCE has been relatively low, with an average of around 29%. A ROCE of 29% is still a healthy level (my estimate of the ROCE for the overall economy is about 20%). However, it&#39;s not comparable to BABA or other overachievers in the FAANG pack.</p><p>Next, we will examine their key segments and initiatives to form a projection of their future profitability and growth drivers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8056d3adecb25ebef04479bb04307ec3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author</span></p><p><b>Growth prospects and final verdict</b></p><p>Looking forward, I see both as well poised to benefit from the secular trend of e-commerce penetration. When we are so used to the American way of online shopping, it&#39;s easy to form the impression that e-commerce has already saturated. The reality is that the global e-commerce penetration is still ONLY at about 20% currently. Meaning 80% of the commerce is still currently conducted offline. In terms of absolute volume, as you can see from the following chart, global retail e-commerce sales have reached $4.2 trillion in 2020. And it&#39;s projected to almost double by 2026, reaching $7.4 trillion of revenues in the retail e-commerce business. The e-commerce movement is just getting started and the bulk of the growth opportunity is yet to come. And leaders like BABA and AMZN are both best poised to capitalize on this secular trend.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6158c888029f44a73ed791c390065540\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>OBERLO data</span></p><p>I also see both enjoy tremendous growth opportunities in other areas besides e-commerce. Both are leaders in the cloud computing space, especially in their own geographical areas. This segment has tremendous growth potential as the world shifts to the pure &#34;pay per use&#34; model, and the growth is just starting as start-ups, enterprises, government agencies, and academic institutions shift their computing needs to this new model. In BABA&#39;s case, its cloud computing, international avenues, and domestic platform expansion are all enjoying momentum. These segments all show promise for profitability and growth in the near future to maintain their high R&amp;D yield and high ROCE. Similarly, AMZN&#39;s AWS unit is expected to grow significantly in the near future to help lift the bottom line. It has recently announced offerings such as Cloud WAN, a managed wide area network, and Amplify Studio, a new visual development environment. Moreover, AMZN&#39;s also announced the planned $8.45 billion purchase of MGM Movie Studios, and I&#39;m optimistic about the synergies with its streaming businesses.</p><p>Also, I do see some asymmetric growth opportunities for BABA. As aforementioned, both stocks are best poised to capitalize on the world&#39;s unstoppable shift toward e-commerce. However, the remaining shift will be unevenly distributed and the Asian-Pacific region will be the center of the momentum. As shown in the chart above, world retail e-commerce sales are expected to exceed $7.3 trillion by 2025. The twist is that the Asian-Pacific region will be where most of the growth will be. By 2023, the Western continents will contribute 16% of the total B2B e-commerce volume, while the remaining 84% would come from the non-Western world. And BABA is best poised to benefit with its scale and reach, government support, and cultural and geographic proximity.</p><p>Finally, the following table summarizes all the key metrics discussed above. As mentioned early on, my thesis is that the risks surrounding BABA have been fully priced in already. Even if we put aside the issue of valuations and risks, there are many comparable aspects between these two e-commerce giants (probably more than their differences). Comparing and contrasting their R&amp;D efforts, profitability, and future growth areas not only elucidate their own investment prospects but also provide insight into other e-commerce investment opportunities.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/609b820dedf6ed23d5ddfd1ed92b9515\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Author</span></p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>I do not think there is a need to repeat BABA&#39;s risks anymore. Other SA authors have provided excellent coverage already. And we ourselves have also assessed these risks based on a Kelly analysis.</p><p>For AMZN, a key issue I recommend investors to keep a close on in the upcoming earnings release is the leasing accounting. We have cautioned readers before the 2021 Q4 earnings release about the role of its lease accounting and the possibility of its free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) deterioration after being adjusted for leasing accounting. And as you can see from the following chart, unfortunately, its FCF has indeed suffered a dramatic deterioration to a negative $20B in 2021 Q4. In the incoming 2022 Q1 release, this is a key item that I would be watching.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/963ea4489df1ce587e26c13d870e7326\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>AMZN 2021 Q4 earnings release</span></p><p><b>Summary and final thoughts</b></p><p>The stock market is notorious for completely ignoring business fundamentals both at the greed extreme and at the fear extreme. The stark contrast between BABA and AMZN serves as a general example of such market psychology so investors could identify mispricing opportunities.</p><p>The thesis is that BABA is now in the extreme fear end of the spectrum and its stock price has recently become disconnected from fundamentals. In particular,</p><ul><li>The current market valuation has already priced in all the risks surrounding BABA. BABA&#39;s price to sales ratio is discounted by almost half relative to AMZN despite its higher margin and profitability.</li><li>Both stocks pursue new opportunities aggressively with 10% to 12% of their total sales spent on R&amp;D efforts, but BABA enjoys a far better yield.</li><li>I also see both well poised to benefit from the secular trend of global e-commerce penetration and also from the opportunities in other areas such as cloud computing. However, I do see some asymmetries here. For example, the remaining e-commerce shift will be unevenly distributed and the Asian-Pacific region will be the center of the momentum, where BABA is better positioned to benefit from its government support and cultural/geographic proximity.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Vs. Amazon Stock: Back To Fundamentals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Vs. Amazon Stock: Back To Fundamentals\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-23 11:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502993-alibaba-vs-amazon-back-to-fundamentals><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe stock market is notorious for completely ignoring business fundamentals at its extremes: Either extreme greed or extreme fear.A comparison between Alibaba and Amazon serves as an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502993-alibaba-vs-amazon-back-to-fundamentals\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502993-alibaba-vs-amazon-back-to-fundamentals","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2229416577","content_text":"SummaryThe stock market is notorious for completely ignoring business fundamentals at its extremes: Either extreme greed or extreme fear.A comparison between Alibaba and Amazon serves as an illustrating example of both of these extremes.Alibaba now is completely dominated by fear, and its superior fundamentals are completely ignored by the market.Amazon, on the other hand, despite its inferior profitability and mounting cash flow issues, trades at a considerable premium, not only relative to Alibaba but also to the overall market.alexsl/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisThe stock market is notorious for completely ignoring business fundamentals at both the greed and feel extreme, as illustrated by the current conditions of Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The contrast between these two stocks is so stark that it not only serves to show a specific investment opportunity but also serves as a general example of market psychology. Admittedly, these two stocks are not entirely comparable and there are certainly differences. Some of the uncertainties and risks faced by BABA are not shared by AMZN.And my thesis here is that the current market valuation has already priced in all the risks surrounding BABA. More specifically,BABA's stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 10%-plus in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals. On the other hand, AMZN's stock price seemed to be immune from news and fundamentals. It has been trading sideways in a narrow range (and at an elevated valuation) despite its mounting cash flow issues and all the geopolitical and macroeconomic risks.As shown in the next chart, both BABA and AMZN are valued at about 1.8x and 3.2x price to sales ratio, respectively, a discount by almost a factor of 2x (1.8x to be exact). As we look deeper next, the discount becomes even larger than on the surface. The second chart compares the profit margin between BABA and Amazon. BABA's EBIT profit margin is almost twice that of Amazon - not only shows BABA's superior profitability (and AMZN's concerning and deteriorating profitability) but also further highlights the valuation gap. The sales of BABA should be worth about 2x as valuable as that of AMZN because of the higher margin, but the current valuation is the opposite. And as you were seeing the remainder of this article, BABA also enjoys superior fundamentals in other keys aspects, such as R&D output, return on capital employed, and growth potential.Finally, aside from their drastically different valuations, there are many comparable aspects between these two e-commerce giants. And a comparison between them could also provide insights into the evolving e-commerce landscape. Comparing what they are researching and developing gives us a peek at the future investment direction in this space.Seeking AlphaSeeking AlphaBoth R&D aggressively but BABA enjoys way better yieldAs mentioned in our earlier writings, we do not invest in a given tech stock because we have high confidence in a certain product that they are developing in the pipeline. Instead, we are more focused on A) the recurring resources available to fund new R&D efforts sustainably, and B) the overall efficiency of the R&D process.So let's first see how well and sustainably BABA and AMZN can fund their new R&D efforts. The short answer is: Extremely well. The next chart shows the R&D expenses of BABA and AMZN over the past decade. As seen, both have been consistently investing heavily in R&D in recent years. AMZN didn't spend meaningfully on R&D before 2016. But since 2016, AMZN on average has been spending about 12% of its total revenue on R&D efforts. And BABA spends a bit less, on average 10%. Both levels are consistent with the average of other overachievers in the tech space, such as the FAAMG group.Author based on Seeking Alpha dataThen the next question is, how effective is their R&D process? This is where the contrast kicks in as shown in the next chart. The chart shows a variation of Buffett's $1 test on R&D expenses. Advised by Buffett, we do not only listen to CEOs' pitches on their brilliant new ideas that will shake the earth (again). We also examine the financials to see if their words are corroborated by the numbers. And in BABA and AMZN's cases, their numbers are shown here. The analysis method is detailed in our earlier writings and in summary:The purpose of any corporate R&D is obviously to generate profit. Therefore, this analysis quantifies the yield by taking the ratio between profit and R&D expenditures. We used the operating cash flow as the measure for profit.Also, most R&D investments do not produce any result in the same year. They typically have a lifetime of a few years. Therefore, this analysis assumes a three-year average investment cycle for R&D. And as a result, we used the three-year moving average of operating cash flow to represent this three-year cycle.As you can see, the R&D yield for both has been remarkably consistent although at different levels. In BABA's case, its R&D yield has been steady around an average of $3.3 in recent years. This level of R&D yield is very competitive even among the overachieving FAAMG group. The FAAMG group boasts an average R&D yield of around $2 to $2.5 in recent years. And the only one that generates a significantly high R&D yield in this group is Apple (AAPL), which generates an R&D yield of $4.7 of profit output from every $1 of R&D expenses.AMZN's R&D yield of $0.9, on the other hand, is substantially lower than BABA's and is also the lowest among the FAAMG group. And note that since AMZN didn't spend meaningfully on R&D before 2016, we only started reporting its R&D yield starting in 2016.Next, we will examine their profitability to fuel their R&D efforts sustainably and also dive into some of the specific R&D efforts they are undertaking.AuthorBABA enjoys far superior profitabilityAs explained in our earlier writings, to us, the most important profitability measure is ROCE (return on capital employed) because:ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed and therefore provides insight into how much additional capital a business needs to invest in order to earn a given extra amount of income - a key to estimating the long-term growth rate. Because when we think as long-term business owners, the growth rate is \"simply\" the product of ROCE and reinvestment rate, i.e.,Long-Term Growth Rate = ROCE * Reinvestment RateThe ROCE of both stocks has been detailed in our earlier articles and I will just directly quote the results below. In this analysis, I consider the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, and C) Research and development expenses are also capitalized. As you can see, BABA was able to maintain a remarkably high ROCE over the past decade. It has been astronomical in the early part of the decade exceeding 150%. It has declined due to all the drama in recent years that you are familiar with (China's tightened regulations, high tax rates, slow-down of the overall economic growth in China, et al). But still, its ROCE is on average about 95% in recent years.AMZN's ROCE has shown a similar pattern. It too has enjoyed a much higher ROCE in the early part of the decade. And it too has witnessed a steady decline over the years. In recent years, its ROCE has been relatively low, with an average of around 29%. A ROCE of 29% is still a healthy level (my estimate of the ROCE for the overall economy is about 20%). However, it's not comparable to BABA or other overachievers in the FAANG pack.Next, we will examine their key segments and initiatives to form a projection of their future profitability and growth drivers.AuthorGrowth prospects and final verdictLooking forward, I see both as well poised to benefit from the secular trend of e-commerce penetration. When we are so used to the American way of online shopping, it's easy to form the impression that e-commerce has already saturated. The reality is that the global e-commerce penetration is still ONLY at about 20% currently. Meaning 80% of the commerce is still currently conducted offline. In terms of absolute volume, as you can see from the following chart, global retail e-commerce sales have reached $4.2 trillion in 2020. And it's projected to almost double by 2026, reaching $7.4 trillion of revenues in the retail e-commerce business. The e-commerce movement is just getting started and the bulk of the growth opportunity is yet to come. And leaders like BABA and AMZN are both best poised to capitalize on this secular trend.OBERLO dataI also see both enjoy tremendous growth opportunities in other areas besides e-commerce. Both are leaders in the cloud computing space, especially in their own geographical areas. This segment has tremendous growth potential as the world shifts to the pure \"pay per use\" model, and the growth is just starting as start-ups, enterprises, government agencies, and academic institutions shift their computing needs to this new model. In BABA's case, its cloud computing, international avenues, and domestic platform expansion are all enjoying momentum. These segments all show promise for profitability and growth in the near future to maintain their high R&D yield and high ROCE. Similarly, AMZN's AWS unit is expected to grow significantly in the near future to help lift the bottom line. It has recently announced offerings such as Cloud WAN, a managed wide area network, and Amplify Studio, a new visual development environment. Moreover, AMZN's also announced the planned $8.45 billion purchase of MGM Movie Studios, and I'm optimistic about the synergies with its streaming businesses.Also, I do see some asymmetric growth opportunities for BABA. As aforementioned, both stocks are best poised to capitalize on the world's unstoppable shift toward e-commerce. However, the remaining shift will be unevenly distributed and the Asian-Pacific region will be the center of the momentum. As shown in the chart above, world retail e-commerce sales are expected to exceed $7.3 trillion by 2025. The twist is that the Asian-Pacific region will be where most of the growth will be. By 2023, the Western continents will contribute 16% of the total B2B e-commerce volume, while the remaining 84% would come from the non-Western world. And BABA is best poised to benefit with its scale and reach, government support, and cultural and geographic proximity.Finally, the following table summarizes all the key metrics discussed above. As mentioned early on, my thesis is that the risks surrounding BABA have been fully priced in already. Even if we put aside the issue of valuations and risks, there are many comparable aspects between these two e-commerce giants (probably more than their differences). Comparing and contrasting their R&D efforts, profitability, and future growth areas not only elucidate their own investment prospects but also provide insight into other e-commerce investment opportunities.AuthorRisksI do not think there is a need to repeat BABA's risks anymore. Other SA authors have provided excellent coverage already. And we ourselves have also assessed these risks based on a Kelly analysis.For AMZN, a key issue I recommend investors to keep a close on in the upcoming earnings release is the leasing accounting. We have cautioned readers before the 2021 Q4 earnings release about the role of its lease accounting and the possibility of its free cash flow (\"FCF\") deterioration after being adjusted for leasing accounting. And as you can see from the following chart, unfortunately, its FCF has indeed suffered a dramatic deterioration to a negative $20B in 2021 Q4. In the incoming 2022 Q1 release, this is a key item that I would be watching.AMZN 2021 Q4 earnings releaseSummary and final thoughtsThe stock market is notorious for completely ignoring business fundamentals both at the greed extreme and at the fear extreme. The stark contrast between BABA and AMZN serves as a general example of such market psychology so investors could identify mispricing opportunities.The thesis is that BABA is now in the extreme fear end of the spectrum and its stock price has recently become disconnected from fundamentals. In particular,The current market valuation has already priced in all the risks surrounding BABA. BABA's price to sales ratio is discounted by almost half relative to AMZN despite its higher margin and profitability.Both stocks pursue new opportunities aggressively with 10% to 12% of their total sales spent on R&D efforts, but BABA enjoys a far better yield.I also see both well poised to benefit from the secular trend of global e-commerce penetration and also from the opportunities in other areas such as cloud computing. However, I do see some asymmetries here. For example, the remaining e-commerce shift will be unevenly distributed and the Asian-Pacific region will be the center of the momentum, where BABA is better positioned to benefit from its government support and cultural/geographic proximity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832291124,"gmtCreate":1629633947368,"gmtModify":1676530083007,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832291124","repostId":"2161374148","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161374148","pubTimestamp":1629603745,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161374148?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-22 11:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Benzinga's Bulls And Bears Of The Week: Apple, Bitcoin, Microsoft, Robinhood, Walmart And More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161374148","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The past week was another rough one on Wall Street, with the tumult in Afghanistan giving investors ","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6de2a5ae22376eccab0ea077c20291d1\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The past week was another rough <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> on Wall Street, with the tumult in Afghanistan giving investors something new to worry about, in addition to the ongoing concerns about the Delta variant, China, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and even gasoline prices and possible cryptocurrency regulation.</p>\n<p>In fact, the Fed minutes release took some of the blame for the week's selling, though markets did not tumble far from all-time highs (thanks largely to big tech). No doubt, Fed Chair Powell will reveal more on intended policy changes in the coming week's Jackson Hole speech.</p>\n<p>The markets ended the week in the red, led by the 1% or so retreat in the Dow Jones industrial average. We haven't yet seen the 10% correction that many think is overdue. With the strong second-quarter earnings reports no longer helping support the markets, will Powell's speech signal the end of the buy-the-dip sentiment?</p>\n<p>Benzinga continues to examine the prospects for many of the stocks most popular with investors. Here are a few of this past week's most bullish and bearish posts that are worth another look.</p>\n<p><b>The Bulls</b></p>\n<p>In \"Why Apple Is A 'Top Tech Name' To Own Right Now,\" Shanthi Rexaline reveals why imminent <b>Apple Inc</b> (NASDAQ: AAPL) hardware releases and less regulatory risk than its peers has one top analyst positive on the stock.</p>\n<p><i>Also read Apple iPhone Sales In China Picking Up Pace, Expect Continued Strength With iPhone 13 Launch, Says Analyst.</i></p>\n<p><b>Microsoft Corporation</b> (NASDAQ: MSFT) is not only a great stock, but a great market leader. So says Adam Eckert's \"Why Microsoft Is 'One Of The Pillars Of The Market'.\" What gives the company its advantages?</p>\n<p>\"Largest US Pension Fund Trimmed Positions In Apple, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>, Google, Tesla In Q2 And Loaded Up Heavily On These 2 Stocks\" by Rachit Vats examines why one huge investor prefers <b>Walmart Inc</b> (NYSE: WMT) to big tech and momentum stocks.</p>\n<p><i>Walmart Earnings: Tough Comparisons Vs. 2020 As Focus Turns To E-Commerce offers a close look at the retail giant's second-quarter results.</i></p>\n<p>In Wayne Duggan's \"Why Splunk Is A 'Top Pick',\" discover why <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLK\">Splunk Inc</a></b> (NASDAQ: SPLK) is still a top pick for one key analyst even though the stock has struggled over the past year. What bullish catalysts does it have before the end of the year?</p>\n<p>Chris Katje's \"MP Materials: Rare Earth Mining Company Is The Thing Behind The Thing For EVs, Other Sectors\" discusses <b>MP Materials Corp</b> (NYSE: MP), the largest rare earth materials producer in the United States.</p>\n<p><b>The Bears</b></p>\n<p>\"Putting Crypto In Your Retirement Account Might Be A Bad Idea, Analysts Think\" by Adrian Zmudzinski explores why increasing mainstream recognition does not mean <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO: BTC) is always an appropriate investment.</p>\n<p><i>Be sure to check out If Bitcoin Bulls Are Right, Environmental Damage Would Be Disastrous: Report as well.</i></p>\n<p>A famed short seller has bet against <b>Tesla Inc</b> (NASDAQ: TSLA) and one of its biggest bulls, ARK Invest, according to \"Michael Burry Bets Heavily Against Tesla, Cathie Wood's Ark Funds In Latest Options\" by Chris Katje.</p>\n<p><i>For more on the EV maker, see Tesla Bull Vs. Tesla Bear: Tesla AI Day Key Takeaways From Analysts.</i></p>\n<p>In \"Why This Virgin Galactic Analyst Just Cut Their Price Target By Nearly 40%,\" Wayne Duggan looks at why meme stock <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE.WS\">Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc</a></b> (NYSE: SPCE) is likely to continue to struggle in the near term.</p>\n<p>Adam Eckert's \"Jim Cramer Says Robinhood Has Become A 'Dogecoin Gateway'\" shows what the CNBC stock investing guru took away from the <b>Robinhood Markets Inc</b> (NASDAQ: HOOD) second-quarter report.</p>\n<p>In Tyler Bundy's \"Is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>'s Stock Doomed After A Cross Below Support?,\" find out why the <b>Snowflake Inc</b> (NYSE: SNOW) chart indicates sentiment in the stock may be turning bearish on signs that growth is slowing.</p>\n<p>Keep up with all the latest breaking news and trading ideas by following Benzinga on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Benzinga's Bulls And Bears Of The Week: Apple, Bitcoin, Microsoft, Robinhood, Walmart And More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBenzinga's Bulls And Bears Of The Week: Apple, Bitcoin, Microsoft, Robinhood, Walmart And More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-22 11:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benzingas-bulls-bears-week-apple-134225755.html><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The past week was another rough one on Wall Street, with the tumult in Afghanistan giving investors something new to worry about, in addition to the ongoing concerns about the Delta variant, China, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benzingas-bulls-bears-week-apple-134225755.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软","WMT":"沃尔玛","TSLA":"特斯拉","HOOD":"Robinhood"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benzingas-bulls-bears-week-apple-134225755.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2161374148","content_text":"The past week was another rough one on Wall Street, with the tumult in Afghanistan giving investors something new to worry about, in addition to the ongoing concerns about the Delta variant, China, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and even gasoline prices and possible cryptocurrency regulation.\nIn fact, the Fed minutes release took some of the blame for the week's selling, though markets did not tumble far from all-time highs (thanks largely to big tech). No doubt, Fed Chair Powell will reveal more on intended policy changes in the coming week's Jackson Hole speech.\nThe markets ended the week in the red, led by the 1% or so retreat in the Dow Jones industrial average. We haven't yet seen the 10% correction that many think is overdue. With the strong second-quarter earnings reports no longer helping support the markets, will Powell's speech signal the end of the buy-the-dip sentiment?\nBenzinga continues to examine the prospects for many of the stocks most popular with investors. Here are a few of this past week's most bullish and bearish posts that are worth another look.\nThe Bulls\nIn \"Why Apple Is A 'Top Tech Name' To Own Right Now,\" Shanthi Rexaline reveals why imminent Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) hardware releases and less regulatory risk than its peers has one top analyst positive on the stock.\nAlso read Apple iPhone Sales In China Picking Up Pace, Expect Continued Strength With iPhone 13 Launch, Says Analyst.\nMicrosoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is not only a great stock, but a great market leader. So says Adam Eckert's \"Why Microsoft Is 'One Of The Pillars Of The Market'.\" What gives the company its advantages?\n\"Largest US Pension Fund Trimmed Positions In Apple, Facebook, Google, Tesla In Q2 And Loaded Up Heavily On These 2 Stocks\" by Rachit Vats examines why one huge investor prefers Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) to big tech and momentum stocks.\nWalmart Earnings: Tough Comparisons Vs. 2020 As Focus Turns To E-Commerce offers a close look at the retail giant's second-quarter results.\nIn Wayne Duggan's \"Why Splunk Is A 'Top Pick',\" discover why Splunk Inc (NASDAQ: SPLK) is still a top pick for one key analyst even though the stock has struggled over the past year. What bullish catalysts does it have before the end of the year?\nChris Katje's \"MP Materials: Rare Earth Mining Company Is The Thing Behind The Thing For EVs, Other Sectors\" discusses MP Materials Corp (NYSE: MP), the largest rare earth materials producer in the United States.\nThe Bears\n\"Putting Crypto In Your Retirement Account Might Be A Bad Idea, Analysts Think\" by Adrian Zmudzinski explores why increasing mainstream recognition does not mean Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is always an appropriate investment.\nBe sure to check out If Bitcoin Bulls Are Right, Environmental Damage Would Be Disastrous: Report as well.\nA famed short seller has bet against Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) and one of its biggest bulls, ARK Invest, according to \"Michael Burry Bets Heavily Against Tesla, Cathie Wood's Ark Funds In Latest Options\" by Chris Katje.\nFor more on the EV maker, see Tesla Bull Vs. Tesla Bear: Tesla AI Day Key Takeaways From Analysts.\nIn \"Why This Virgin Galactic Analyst Just Cut Their Price Target By Nearly 40%,\" Wayne Duggan looks at why meme stock Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (NYSE: SPCE) is likely to continue to struggle in the near term.\nAdam Eckert's \"Jim Cramer Says Robinhood Has Become A 'Dogecoin Gateway'\" shows what the CNBC stock investing guru took away from the Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ: HOOD) second-quarter report.\nIn Tyler Bundy's \"Is Snowflake's Stock Doomed After A Cross Below Support?,\" find out why the Snowflake Inc (NYSE: SNOW) chart indicates sentiment in the stock may be turning bearish on signs that growth is slowing.\nKeep up with all the latest breaking news and trading ideas by following Benzinga on Twitter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833741404,"gmtCreate":1629267761408,"gmtModify":1676529984954,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833741404","repostId":"1114320591","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010239007,"gmtCreate":1648388133942,"gmtModify":1676534333137,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010239007","repostId":"2221071429","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221071429","pubTimestamp":1648343569,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221071429?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-27 09:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alphabet Vs. Meta: One Is The Much Better Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221071429","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty ImagesAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are fa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8682b68644fb0e700ccf73bfd598736\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty Images</p><p></p><p>Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are famous for enriching millions of investors over the last eight years.</p><p><b> Alphabet And Meta Returns Since 2013</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7de1c1120c62c3dad9c49e5d4e5a134\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"112\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>In fact, both have crushed even the red hot Nasdaq during <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the hottest tech bull runs in US history, delivering Buffett-like 25% returns that resulted in an 8X return.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad549342543f2ced891f57b6c43bb4fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p></p><p>While the market is currently in a correction, and growth stocks have been especially hard hit, Meta has been crushed, falling into a 50% bear market.</p><p>I&#39;ve bought both growth legends in this correction, but one is a core growth name in my correction plan, and the other is a non-core holding.</p><p>So let me explain why both Meta and Alphabet are great companies, worth owning, and even buying more of right now.</p><p>However, a careful examination of both of their fundamentals makes it clear that Alphabet is the global king of digital marketing, and this is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future.</p><h2>The Challenge Facing Digital Marketers Right Now</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a556ac1fd6482c83da2db4af6d5b7540\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>eMarketer</p><p></p><p>GOOG, FB, and Amazon (AMZN) have a triopoly on US digital marketing, commanding an estimated 65% of the market.</p><p>Both GOOG and FB are losing market share to AMZN because Amazon&#39;s ads are 3X as effective at converting to actual sales.</p><p>That&#39;s because Amazon has spent decades gathering customer sales data and knows what its customers want better than anyone on earth.</p><p>Apple&#39;s (AAPL) recent privacy shift in iOS, makes it much easier to opt out of data tracking, and 62% of iPhone users have indeed opted out.</p><p>This has proven a hammer blow to FB, which management says could cost it $10 billion in 2022 alone.</p><p>GOOG is less at risk since it still has the search data it can use to optimize for targeted ads.</p><p>AMZN is the least at risk since it relies far less on cookie tracking than its rivals.</p><p>This kind of business model disruption is part of FB and GOOG&#39;s risk profile, which brings us to our first point of comparison.</p><h2>Long-Term Risk Management: Winner Alphabet</h2><p>How do we quantify, monitor, and track such a complex risk profile? By doing what big institutions do.</p><h2>Material Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk</h2><ul><li>4 Things You Need To Know To Profit From ESG Investing</li><li>What Investors Need To Know About Company Long-Term Risk Management (Video)</li></ul><p>Here is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.</p><ul><li>ESG is NOT &#34;political or personal ethics based investing&#34;</li><li>it&#39;s total long-term risk management analysis</li></ul><blockquote><i><b>ESG is just normal risk by another name.</b></i><i>&#34; Simon MacMahon, head of ESG and corporate governance research, Sustainalytics&#34; - Morningstar</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>ESG factors are taken into consideration, alongside all other credit factors, when we consider they are relevant to and have or may have a material influence on creditworthiness.&#34; - S&amp;P</i></blockquote><p>ESG is a measure of risk, not of ethics, political correctness, or personal opinion.</p><p>S&amp;P, Fitch, Moody&#39;s, DBRS (Canadian rating agency), AMBest (insurance rating agency), R&amp;I Credit Rating (Japanese rating agency), and the Japan Credit Rating Agency <b>have been using ESG models in their credit ratings for decades.</b></p><ul><li><b>every credit rating for the last 30 years has included these risk models, you just weren&#39;t aware of it </b></li><li>credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality model</li><li>dividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality model</li></ul><p>Every major financial institution also tracks long-term risk management and considers it essential to sound long-term investing including,</p><ul><li>BlackRock</li><li>MSCI</li><li>JPMorgan</li><li>Wells Fargo</li><li>Bank of America</li><li>Deutsche Bank</li><li>virtually every major financial institution in the world</li></ul><p>We use six rating agencies to get a consensus risk management percentile, comparing how well a company manages its risk relative to its peers.</p><p>For context:</p><ul><li>master list average: 62nd percentile</li><li>dividend kings: 63rd percentile</li><li>dividend aristocrats: 67th percentile</li><li>Ultra SWANs: 71st percentile</li></ul><p>The better a company&#39;s risk management consensus the more likely it will be able to adapt to challenges to its business model, as we&#39;re seeing now with GOOG and FB.</p><h4>Meta Long-Term Risk-Management Consensus</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating Agency</b></td><td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td><td><p><b>Rating Agency Classification</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>MSCI 37 Metric Model</td><td>26.0%</td><td><p>B Industry Laggard, Negative Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model</td><td>0.7%</td><td><p>32.4/100 High-Risk</p></td></tr><tr><td>Reuters&#39;/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model</td><td>88.9%</td><td>Good</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 1,000+ Metric Model</td><td>18.0%</td><td><p>Very Poor- Stable Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital 19 Metric Model</td><td>50.0%</td><td>Average</td></tr><tr><td>FactSet</td><td>30.0%</td><td><p>Below-Average Stable Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar Global Percentile</td><td>30.6%</td><td>Below-Average</td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital Global Percentile</td><td>25.4%</td><td>Poor</td></tr><tr><td><b>Consensus</b></td><td><b>33.7%</b></td><td><p><b>Below-Average (verging on poor) - medium risk</b></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters&#39;, Just Capital, S&amp;P, FactSet Research)</i></p><p>The rating agency consensus is that FB is below-average at managing its risk, verging on poor.</p><p>Now contrast that with GOOG.</p><h4>Alphabet Long-Term Risk-Management Consensus</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating Agency</b></td><td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td><td><p><b>Rating Agency Classification</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>MSCI 37 Metric Model</td><td>53.0%</td><td><p>BBB Average, Negative Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model</td><td>39.7%</td><td><p>24.3/100 Medium-Risk</p></td></tr><tr><td>Reuters&#39;/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model</td><td>85.88%</td><td>Good</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 1,000+ Metric Model</td><td>47.0%</td><td><p>Average- Positive Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital 19 Metric Model</td><td>100.00%</td><td><p>#1 Industry Leader</p></td></tr><tr><td>FactSet</td><td>30.0%</td><td><p>Below-Average Stable Trend</p></td></tr><tr><td>Morningstar Global Percentile</td><td>60.88</td><td>Above-Average</td></tr><tr><td>Just Capital Global Percentile</td><td>100%</td><td><p>#1 Industry Leader, #1 Company In America</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Consensus</b></td><td><b>64.6%</b></td><td><b>Above-Average - low risk </b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters&#39;, Just Capital, S&amp;P, FactSet Research)</i></p><p>GOOG doesn&#39;t just manage its long-term risk better than FB, it&#39;s beating FB by 31%.</p><ul><li>far more likely to successfully deal with privacy policy shifts, regulators, and every other major risk to its business model</li></ul><p>And risk-management isn&#39;t the only factor in which GOOG outshines FB by a wide margin.</p><h2>Overall Quality: Winner, Alphabet</h2><p>The Dividend King&#39;s overall quality scores are based on a 241 point model that includes:</p><ul><li><p>dividend safety</p></li><li><p>balance sheet strength</p></li><li><p>credit ratings</p></li><li><p>credit default swap medium-term bankruptcy risk data</p></li><li><p>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</p></li><li><p>accounting and corporate fraud risk</p></li><li><p>profitability and business model</p></li><li><p>growth consensus estimates</p></li><li><p>management growth guidance</p></li><li><p>historical earnings growth rates</p></li><li><p>historical cash flow growth rates</p></li><li><p>historical dividend growth rates</p></li><li><p>historical sales growth rates</p></li><li><p>cost of capital</p></li><li><p>long-term risk-management scores from MSCI, Morningstar, FactSet, S&amp;P, Reuters&#39;/Refinitiv, and Just Capital</p></li><li><p>management quality</p></li><li><p>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</p></li><li><p>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</p></li><li><p>analyst consensus long-term return potential</p></li></ul><p>It actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by 12 rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.</p><ul><li><p>credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality model</p></li><li><p>dividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality model</p></li></ul><p>How do we know that our safety and quality model works well?</p><p>During the two worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 87% of blue-chip dividend cuts during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.</p><p>That&#39;s because we don&#39;t miss anything important about a company&#39;s fundamental safety and quality.</p><p>So how do GOOG and FB stack up on one of the world&#39;s most comprehensive and accurate safety and quality models?</p><h2>Meta: A Speculative 11/19 Quality Blue-Chip</h2><p><b>Meta Balance Sheet Safety</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating</b></td><td><b>Dividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)</b></td><td><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</b></td><td><p><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>1 - unsafe</td><td>0% to 20%</td><td>over 4%</td><td>16+%</td></tr><tr><td>2- below average</td><td>21% to 40%</td><td>over 2%</td><td>8% to 16%</td></tr><tr><td>3 - average</td><td>41% to 60%</td><td>2%</td><td>4% to 8%</td></tr><tr><td>4 - safe</td><td>61% to 80%</td><td>1%</td><td>2% to 4%</td></tr><tr><td>5- very safe</td><td>81% to 100%</td><td>0.5%</td><td>1% to 2%</td></tr><tr><td><b>FB</b></td><td><b>100%</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>Medium Risk (34th industry percentile risk-management consensus)</td><td>Effective AAA stable outlook credit rating 0.07% 30-year bankruptcy risk</td><td>2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Recommendation - speculative, turnaround stock</td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Long-Term Dependability</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</b></td><td><b>Interpretation</b></td><td><b>Points</b></td></tr><tr><td>Non-Dependable Companies</td><td>21% or below</td><td>Poor Dependability</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Low Dependability Companies</td><td>22% to 60%</td><td>Below-Average Dependability</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td><td>61% (58% to 70% range)</td><td>Average Dependability</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Above-Average</td><td>71% to 80%</td><td>Very Dependable</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Very Good</td><td>81% or higher</td><td>Exceptional Dependability</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td><b>FB</b></td><td><b>67%</b></td><td><b>Average Dependability</b></td><td><b>3</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Overall Quality</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>FB</b></td><td><b>Final Score</b></td><td><b>Rating</b></td></tr><tr><td>Safety</td><td>100%</td><td>5/5 very safe</td></tr><tr><td>Business Model</td><td>100%</td><td>3/3 wide moat</td></tr><tr><td>Dependability</td><td>67%</td><td>3/5 average dependability</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total</b></td><td><b>84%</b></td><td><b>11/13 Speculative Blue-Chip</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td><p>2/3 Medium Risk</p></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec - speculative, turnaround stock</td><td><p>20% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good Buy</p></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table><p>And here&#39;s GOOG.</p><h2>Alphabet: A 13/13 Quality Ultra SWAN</h2><p><b>Alphabet Balance Sheet Safety</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Rating</b></td><td><b>Dividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)</b></td><td><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</b></td><td><p><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>1 - unsafe</td><td>0% to 20%</td><td>over 4%</td><td>16+%</td></tr><tr><td>2- below average</td><td>21% to 40%</td><td>over 2%</td><td>8% to 16%</td></tr><tr><td>3 - average</td><td>41% to 60%</td><td>2%</td><td>4% to 8%</td></tr><tr><td>4 - safe</td><td>61% to 80%</td><td>1%</td><td>2% to 4%</td></tr><tr><td>5- very safe</td><td>81% to 100%</td><td>0.5%</td><td>1% to 2%</td></tr><tr><td><b>GOOG</b></td><td><b>100%</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>Low Risk (65th industry percentile risk-management consensus)</td><td>AA+ stable outlook credit rating 0.29% 30-year bankruptcy risk</td><td>20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Recommendation</td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Long-Term Dependability</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</b></td><td><b>Interpretation</b></td><td><b>Points</b></td></tr><tr><td>Non-Dependable Companies</td><td>21% or below</td><td>Poor Dependability</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Low Dependability Companies</td><td>22% to 60%</td><td>Below-Average Dependability</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td><td>61% (58% to 70% range)</td><td>Average Dependability</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Above-Average</td><td>71% to 80%</td><td>Very Dependable</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Very Good</td><td>81% or higher</td><td>Exceptional Dependability</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td><b>GOOG</b></td><td><b>89%</b></td><td><b>Exceptional Dependability</b></td><td><b>5</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Overall Quality</b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>GOOG</b></td><td><b>Final Score</b></td><td><b>Rating</b></td></tr><tr><td>Safety</td><td>100%</td><td>5/5 very safe</td></tr><tr><td>Business Model</td><td>100%</td><td>3/3 wide moat</td></tr><tr><td>Dependability</td><td>89%</td><td>5/5 exceptional</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total</b></td><td><b>95%</b></td><td><b>13/13 Ultra SWAN</b></td></tr><tr><td>Risk Rating</td><td>3/3 Low Risk</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec</td><td><p>5% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good Buy</p></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table><ul><li>Meta: 114th highest quality company on the Masterlist: 78th percentile</li><li>Alphabet: 39th highest quality: 92nd percentile</li></ul><p>Both companies are exceptionally high quality given that our company database is one of the best in the world.</p><p>The DK 500 Master List includes the world&#39;s highest quality companies including:</p><ul><li><p>All dividend champions</p></li><li><p>All dividend aristocrats</p></li><li><p>All dividend kings</p></li><li><p>All global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</p></li><li><p>All 13/13 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)</p></li><li>48 of the world&#39;s best growth stocks (on its way to 100)</li></ul><p>But when it comes to overall quality, factoring in over 1,000 fundamental metrics, the winner is clearly once more Alphabet.</p><p>Why is GOOG the hands-down winner in this quality fight with FB?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>Quality Rating (out Of 13)</b></td><td><b>Quality Score (Out Of 100)</b></td><td><b>Dividend/Balance Sheet Safety Rating (out of 5)</b></td><td><b>Safety Score (Out Of 100)</b></td><td><b>Dependability Rating (Out Of 5)</b></td><td><b>Dependability Score (out Of 100)</b></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a></td><td>11 Speculative Blue-Chip</td><td>84%</td><td>5 Very Safe</td><td>100%</td><td>3 average</td><td>67%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>13 Ultra SWAN</td><td>95%</td><td>5 Very Safe</td><td>100%</td><td>5 exceptional</td><td>89%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal)</i></p><p>Both FB and Meta have exceptionally strong balance sheets, making the risk of bankruptcy as close to zero as you can find on Wall Street.</p><h4>Alphabet&#39;s Balance Sheet: AA+ Rated By S&amp;P</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13f13c309fa748452dfea0afb27ebdf\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>GuruFocus Premium</p><p></p><p>GOOG has $140 billion in cash and just $13 billion in debt.</p><p>Its advanced accounting metrics (F, Z, and M-score) are exceptional.</p><ul><li>F-score is a measure of short-term bankruptcy risk</li><li>4+ is safe, 7+ very safe and GOOG&#39;s is 8</li><li>M-score is 84% to 92% accurate at forecasting long-term bankruptcies</li><li>1.81+ is safe, 3+ is very safe and GOOG&#39;s is 13.04</li><li>M-score is 76% accurate at catching accounting fraud, and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting</li><li>-1.78 or lower is safe and GOOG&#39;s is -2.48</li></ul><h4>Meta&#39;s Balance Sheet: Effectively AAA</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68209d14c736c8328e46572200e82060\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>GuruFocus Premium</p><p></p><p>The only &#34;debt&#34; Meta has is receivables, it actually carries no long-term debt.</p><p>That is why it&#39;s the largest company on earth that doesn&#39;t pay the $500K per year for a credit rating.</p><p>However, given its current and historical advanced credit metrics, as well as its exceptionally strong solvency ratios (current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratios), I&#39;m highly confident that it would be AAA-rated.</p><ul><li>because it&#39;s literally not possible for FB to default on debt it doesn&#39;t have</li></ul><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Credit Rating</b></td><td><b>30-Year Bankruptcy Probability</b></td></tr><tr><td>AAA (Meta)</td><td>0.07%</td></tr><tr><td>AA+ (Alphabet)</td><td>0.29%</td></tr><tr><td>AA</td><td>0.51%</td></tr><tr><td>AA-</td><td>0.55%</td></tr><tr><td>A+</td><td>0.60%</td></tr><tr><td>A</td><td>0.66%</td></tr><tr><td>A-</td><td>2.5%</td></tr><tr><td>BBB+</td><td>5%</td></tr><tr><td>BBB</td><td>7.5%</td></tr><tr><td>BBB-</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>BB+</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>BB</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>BB-</td><td>21%</td></tr><tr><td>B+</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>B</td><td>37%</td></tr><tr><td>B-</td><td>45%</td></tr><tr><td>CCC+</td><td>52%</td></tr><tr><td>CCC</td><td>59%</td></tr><tr><td>CCC-</td><td>65%</td></tr><tr><td>CC</td><td>70%</td></tr><tr><td>C</td><td>80%</td></tr><tr><td>D</td><td>100%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: S&amp;P, University of St. Petersberg)</i></p><p>This means the fundamental risk of losing all your money over the next 30 years buying FB or GOOG today is approximately</p><ul><li>1 in 1,429 for FB</li><li>1 in 345 for GOOG</li></ul><p>And both companies&#39; balance sheets are expected to keep getting stronger over time.</p><p><b>Alphabet: Consensus $441 Billion In Net Cash By 2027 </b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c3a6843c329c2b16d3839e0e124674\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p><b>Meta: Consensus $71 Billion In Net Cash By 2027</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec44680d5d8318ba8ed74d4b40ae28e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p>Now let&#39;s consider profitability, Wall Street&#39;s favorite quality proxy.</p><h2>Profitability: Winner, Meta By A Small Amount</h2><p><b>Meta Profitability Vs Peers</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2b501a3cd5bb6da5299422362bed67\" tg-width=\"486\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gurufocus Premium</p><p></p><p><b>Alphabet Profitability Vs Peers</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/926a2ab456d218b3ef8cd49552df5565\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gurufocus Premium</p><p></p><p>Both companies are profit-minting machines.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673b7f04eadaf433b4fe704dda171180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p></p><p>These are two of the most profitable companies on earth, and their industry-leading profitability has been stable or improving for over a decade, confirming a wide and stable moat.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a1b491d8a76dd73ddc3b2ea13e999c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p>FB&#39;s free cash flow is expected to keep growing and reach $77 billion in 2027.</p><p>This is expected to result in impressive buybacks in the coming years.</p><ul><li>$219 billion in consensus buybacks through 2027</li><li>38% of shares at current valuations</li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f9e72220887060384ea19dc975503c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p></p><p>GOOG&#39;s annual free cash flow is expected to grow to $139 billion in 2027, allowing it to undertake even more impressive buybacks.</p><ul><li>$380 billion in consensus buybacks through 2027</li><li>21% of shares at current valuations</li></ul><p>Now let&#39;s consider one important profitability metric in particular.</p><p>Return on capital or ROC is Joel Greenblatt&#39;s gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.</p><p>ROC = pre-tax profit/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business).</p><ul><li>S&amp;P 500&#39;s average in 2021 was 14.6% (average investment pays for itself in 7 years)</li></ul><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>ROC (Greenblatt)</b></td><td><b>ROC Industry Percentile</b></td><td><b>13-Year Median ROC</b></td><td><b>5-Year ROC Trend (OTC:CAGR)</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>74%</td><td>65%</td><td>95%</td><td>-16%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>87%</td><td>67%</td><td>74%</td><td>-7%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>In the past year, GOOG&#39;s return on capital was higher than FB&#39;s and it&#39;s also above its 13-year median indicating a more stable moat.</p><p>In other words, when it comes to profitability, FB edges out GOOG by a small amount, except in terms of return on capital, where it&#39;s once more the winner.</p><h2>Valuation: Winner, Meta</h2><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>Average Fair Value</b></td><td><b>Current Price</b></td><td><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></td><td><b>DK Rating</b></td><td><b>PE 2022</b></td><td><b>PEG 2022</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>$265.75</td><td>$214.35</td><td>19.6%</td><td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td><td>17.19</td><td>1.49</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>$3,161.89</td><td>$2,771.92</td><td>12.3%</td><td>Potentially Good Buy</td><td>23.51</td><td>1.67</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>FB is trading at a slightly lower valuation and a higher margin of safety, though not quite high enough for me to consider it a good buy.</p><ul><li>20% discount is needed to make FB a potentially good buy given its lower quality and risk profile</li></ul><p>If we back out cash we see that FB is once more the more undervalued company.</p><ul><li>FB EV/EBITDA: 9.5</li><li>GOOG EV/EBITDA: 14.5</li></ul><p>However, both companies are trading at highly attractive valuations.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>12-Month Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>12-Month Fundamentally Justified Upside Total Return Potential</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>48.47%</td><td>23.98%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>25.77%</td><td>14.11%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>This is why analysts expect both to deliver very strong returns, though FB potentially much more than GOOG.</p><p>Of course, what happens in the next year doesn&#39;t matter as much as the kind of returns both companies can deliver over the long-term.</p><h2>Long-Term Total Return Potential: Winner, Alphabet</h2><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>Yield</b></td><td><b>FactSet Long-Term Consensus Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</b></td></tr><tr><td>Meta Platforms</td><td>0.00%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>8.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Alphabet</td><td>0.00%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>9.9%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>GOOG is expected to grow significantly faster than FB over time, resulting in far better long-term returns.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Investment Strategy</b></td><td><b>Yield</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Growth</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</b></td><td><b>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</b></td><td><b>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</b></td><td><p><b>10 Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Return</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Europe</td><td>2.6%</td><td>12.8%</td><td>15.4%</td><td>10.7%</td><td>8.6%</td><td>8.4</td><td>2.27</td></tr><tr><td>Value</td><td>2.1%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>9.9%</td><td>7.7%</td><td>9.3</td><td>2.10</td></tr><tr><td><b>Alphabet</b></td><td><b>0.0%</b></td><td><b>14.1%</b></td><td><b>14.1%</b></td><td><b>9.9%</b></td><td><b>7.7%</b></td><td><b>9.4</b></td><td>2.10</td></tr><tr><td>High-Yield</td><td>2.8%</td><td>11.3%</td><td>14.1%</td><td>9.9%</td><td>7.7%</td><td>9.4</td><td>2.10</td></tr><tr><td>High-Yield + Growth</td><td>1.7%</td><td>11.0%</td><td>12.7%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>6.7%</td><td>10.8</td><td>1.91</td></tr><tr><td>Safe Midstream + Growth</td><td>3.3%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>8.3%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.80</td></tr><tr><td><b>Meta</b></td><td><b>0.0%</b></td><td><b>11.50%</b></td><td><b>11.5%</b></td><td><b>8.1%</b></td><td><b>5.9%</b></td><td><b>12.3</b></td><td>1.77</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq (Growth)</td><td>0.8%</td><td>10.7%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>8.1%</td><td>5.9%</td><td>12.3</td><td>1.77</td></tr><tr><td>Safe Midstream</td><td>5.5%</td><td>6.0%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>8.1%</td><td>5.9%</td><td>12.3</td><td>1.77</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.2%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.6%</td><td>12.9</td><td>1.72</td></tr><tr><td>REITs + Growth</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.9%</td><td>10.6%</td><td>7.4%</td><td>5.2%</td><td>13.7</td><td>1.67</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.4%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>9.9%</td><td>7.0%</td><td>4.8%</td><td>15.1</td><td>1.59</td></tr><tr><td>Realty Income</td><td>4.6%</td><td>5.2%</td><td>9.8%</td><td>6.9%</td><td>4.7%</td><td>15.4</td><td>1.58</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Growth</td><td>1.6%</td><td>8.0%</td><td>9.6%</td><td>6.7%</td><td>4.5%</td><td>15.9</td><td>1.56</td></tr><tr><td>REITs</td><td>2.9%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>9.4%</td><td>6.6%</td><td>4.4%</td><td>16.4</td><td>1.54</td></tr><tr><td>60/40 Retirement Portfolio</td><td>2.1%</td><td>5.1%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>5.1%</td><td>2.9%</td><td>24.9</td><td>1.33</td></tr><tr><td>10-Year US Treasury</td><td>2.3%</td><td>0.0%</td><td>2.3%</td><td>1.6%</td><td>-0.5%</td><td>-131.1</td><td>0.95</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Both companies are expected to beat the S&amp;P 500 over time, though FB merely to match the Nasdaq while GOOG is expected to run circles around big tech.</p><p>What kind of difference does 2.6% per year in potential extra returns actually mean for your life?</p><h4>Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial Investment</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>7.7% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&amp;P Consensus</b></td><td><b>11.9% Inflation-Adjusted GOOG Consensus</b></td><td><b>9.3% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted FB Consensus</b></td><td><b>Difference Between Inflation Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus Returns</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>$1,449.03</td><td>$1,756.06</td><td>$1,561.34</td><td>$194.71</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>$2,099.70</td><td>$3,083.73</td><td>$2,437.79</td><td>$645.95</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>$3,042.53</td><td>$5,415.21</td><td>$3,806.22</td><td>$1,608.99</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>$4,408.74</td><td>$9,509.42</td><td>$5,942.82</td><td>$3,566.60</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>$6,388.41</td><td>$16,699.08</td><td>$9,278.77</td><td>$7,420.31</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>$9,257.02</td><td>$29,324.53</td><td>$14,487.34</td><td>$14,837.19</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Both FB and GOOG are likely to generate good returns but GOOG could turn a modest investment today into a potentially small fortune in the coming decades.</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td><td><b>Ratio Inflation-Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus</b></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>1.12</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>1.26</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>1.42</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>1.60</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>1.80</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>2.02</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>In fact, GOOG could potentially double FB&#39;s 30-year returns if both companies grow as analysts currently expect.</p><h2>Short &amp; Medium-Term Total Return Potential: Tie</h2><p><b>Meta 2024 Consensus Return Potential </b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f903c32f63dbb4cfa5efa19492b8a0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>FB growing at 11.5% is worth about 20.5X earnings based on the company&#39;s historical PEG ratio.</p><ul><li>analyst 12-month consensus forecast is for 21.9 PE</li></ul><p>This means that if FB grows as expected through 2024 it could deliver about 18% annular returns, far more than the 17% overvalued S&amp;P 500 is likely to generate.</p><p>What about the next five years?</p><h4>S&amp;P 500 2027 Consensus Return Potential</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>Upside Potential By End of That Year</b></td><td><b>Consensus CAGR Return Potential By End of That Year</b></td><td><b>Probability-Weighted Return (Annualized)</b></td><td><p><b>Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>2027</td><td>34.75%</td><td>6.15%</td><td>4.61%</td><td>1.27%</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK S&amp;P 500 Valuation And Total Return Tool)</i></p><p>For context, analysts expect 35% returns from the S&amp;P 500, which adjusted for inflation and risk is 1% compared to the market&#39;s historical 6% to 7% real return.</p><h4><b>Meta 2027 Consensus Return Potential</b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66d31fef78452199e2961d8d89d65454\" tg-width=\"275\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>FB could more than double your money if it grows as analysts expect over the next five years.</p><ul><li>3.2X the S&amp;P 500 consensus</li></ul><h2><b>GOOG 2024 Consensus Return Potential </b></h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc664bb22e0ba08e06de0e9bbed286c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>GOOG could deliver 13% annual returns through 2024 if it grows as expected.</p><p>In the past GOOG has grown as slowly as 11% and billions of investors still paid 25.7X earnings, meaning that its historical market-fair value multiple of 25 to 26X earnings should still be valid.</p><h4><b>GOOG 2027 Consensus Return Potential</b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d07a6169cb075678d6646bca01679\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet Research</p><p></p><p>Thanks to GOOG&#39;s faster growth rate analysts expect both companies to potentially deliver identical returns.</p><ul><li>about 14% annually over the next five years</li><li>also 3.2X better than the S&amp;P 500</li></ul><h2>Bottom Line: Both Are Great Companies But In The Battle Of Meta And Alphabet There Is One Clear Winner</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dea4bc19b8951f30e1b2bea40e989b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507426f09d401e866c66a1f1dd597e4f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p></p><p>Both Alphabet and Meta are wonderful companies, and as close to perfect growth blue-chip opportunities as you can find on Wall Street right now.</p><ul><li>far superior valuation</li><li>superior quality</li><li>superior long-term return potential to the S&amp;P 500</li></ul><p>However, when we examine both companies in their entirety one fact is clear.</p><ul><li>GOOG is a higher quality company</li><li>GOOG is a faster-growing company (<i>with potentially 2X better long-term return potential than FB</i>)</li><li>GOOG has far better long-term risk management (to deal with the disruption the digital advertising industry is currently facing)</li><li>GOOG has superior return on capital and a more stable moat</li></ul><p>While FB offers superior valuation and potentially double the short-term return potential, it&#39;s a speculative blue-chip currently going through the largest business pivot in the company&#39;s history.</p><p>In contrast, GOOG is a faster-growing Ultra SWAN that is expected to buy back almost $400 billion worth of stock in the next five years, double that of FB.</p><p>Simply put, if you can only buy one of these growth legends today, I recommend Alphabet, and that&#39;s why I have it as a core growth position in my correction plan.</p><p>Not just for the next few weeks, but all of 2022 and beyond.</p><p>Because at the end of the day, when you focus on safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk-management always, you never have to pray for luck on Wall Street, you make your own.</p><blockquote>Luck is what happens when preparation meets, opportunity.&#34; - Roman philosopher Seneca the younger</blockquote></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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Meta: One Is The Much Better Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet Vs. Meta: One Is The Much Better Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-27 09:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497464-alphabet-vs-meta-one-is-better-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty ImagesAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are famous for enriching millions of investors over the last eight years. Alphabet And Meta Returns Since ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497464-alphabet-vs-meta-one-is-better-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497464-alphabet-vs-meta-one-is-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2221071429","content_text":"FotoMaximum/iStock via Getty ImagesAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta (NASDAQ:FB) are famous for enriching millions of investors over the last eight years. Alphabet And Meta Returns Since 2013Portfolio Visualizer PremiumIn fact, both have crushed even the red hot Nasdaq during one of the hottest tech bull runs in US history, delivering Buffett-like 25% returns that resulted in an 8X return.YchartsWhile the market is currently in a correction, and growth stocks have been especially hard hit, Meta has been crushed, falling into a 50% bear market.I've bought both growth legends in this correction, but one is a core growth name in my correction plan, and the other is a non-core holding.So let me explain why both Meta and Alphabet are great companies, worth owning, and even buying more of right now.However, a careful examination of both of their fundamentals makes it clear that Alphabet is the global king of digital marketing, and this is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future.The Challenge Facing Digital Marketers Right NoweMarketerGOOG, FB, and Amazon (AMZN) have a triopoly on US digital marketing, commanding an estimated 65% of the market.Both GOOG and FB are losing market share to AMZN because Amazon's ads are 3X as effective at converting to actual sales.That's because Amazon has spent decades gathering customer sales data and knows what its customers want better than anyone on earth.Apple's (AAPL) recent privacy shift in iOS, makes it much easier to opt out of data tracking, and 62% of iPhone users have indeed opted out.This has proven a hammer blow to FB, which management says could cost it $10 billion in 2022 alone.GOOG is less at risk since it still has the search data it can use to optimize for targeted ads.AMZN is the least at risk since it relies far less on cookie tracking than its rivals.This kind of business model disruption is part of FB and GOOG's risk profile, which brings us to our first point of comparison.Long-Term Risk Management: Winner AlphabetHow do we quantify, monitor, and track such a complex risk profile? By doing what big institutions do.Material Financial ESG Risk Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk4 Things You Need To Know To Profit From ESG InvestingWhat Investors Need To Know About Company Long-Term Risk Management (Video)Here is a special report that outlines the most important aspects of understanding long-term ESG financial risks for your investments.ESG is NOT \"political or personal ethics based investing\"it's total long-term risk management analysisESG is just normal risk by another name.\" Simon MacMahon, head of ESG and corporate governance research, Sustainalytics\" - MorningstarESG factors are taken into consideration, alongside all other credit factors, when we consider they are relevant to and have or may have a material influence on creditworthiness.\" - S&PESG is a measure of risk, not of ethics, political correctness, or personal opinion.S&P, Fitch, Moody's, DBRS (Canadian rating agency), AMBest (insurance rating agency), R&I Credit Rating (Japanese rating agency), and the Japan Credit Rating Agency have been using ESG models in their credit ratings for decades.every credit rating for the last 30 years has included these risk models, you just weren't aware of it credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality modeldividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality modelEvery major financial institution also tracks long-term risk management and considers it essential to sound long-term investing including,BlackRockMSCIJPMorganWells FargoBank of AmericaDeutsche Bankvirtually every major financial institution in the worldWe use six rating agencies to get a consensus risk management percentile, comparing how well a company manages its risk relative to its peers.For context:master list average: 62nd percentiledividend kings: 63rd percentiledividend aristocrats: 67th percentileUltra SWANs: 71st percentileThe better a company's risk management consensus the more likely it will be able to adapt to challenges to its business model, as we're seeing now with GOOG and FB.Meta Long-Term Risk-Management ConsensusRating AgencyIndustry PercentileRating Agency ClassificationMSCI 37 Metric Model26.0%B Industry Laggard, Negative TrendMorningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model0.7%32.4/100 High-RiskReuters'/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model88.9%GoodS&P 1,000+ Metric Model18.0%Very Poor- Stable TrendJust Capital 19 Metric Model50.0%AverageFactSet30.0%Below-Average Stable TrendMorningstar Global Percentile30.6%Below-AverageJust Capital Global Percentile25.4%PoorConsensus33.7%Below-Average (verging on poor) - medium risk(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters', Just Capital, S&P, FactSet Research)The rating agency consensus is that FB is below-average at managing its risk, verging on poor.Now contrast that with GOOG.Alphabet Long-Term Risk-Management ConsensusRating AgencyIndustry PercentileRating Agency ClassificationMSCI 37 Metric Model53.0%BBB Average, Negative TrendMorningstar/Sustainalytics 20 Metric Model39.7%24.3/100 Medium-RiskReuters'/Refinitiv 500+ Metric Model85.88%GoodS&P 1,000+ Metric Model47.0%Average- Positive TrendJust Capital 19 Metric Model100.00%#1 Industry LeaderFactSet30.0%Below-Average Stable TrendMorningstar Global Percentile60.88Above-AverageJust Capital Global Percentile100%#1 Industry Leader, #1 Company In AmericaConsensus64.6%Above-Average - low risk (Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters', Just Capital, S&P, FactSet Research)GOOG doesn't just manage its long-term risk better than FB, it's beating FB by 31%.far more likely to successfully deal with privacy policy shifts, regulators, and every other major risk to its business modelAnd risk-management isn't the only factor in which GOOG outshines FB by a wide margin.Overall Quality: Winner, AlphabetThe Dividend King's overall quality scores are based on a 241 point model that includes:dividend safetybalance sheet strengthcredit ratingscredit default swap medium-term bankruptcy risk datashort and long-term bankruptcy riskaccounting and corporate fraud riskprofitability and business modelgrowth consensus estimatesmanagement growth guidancehistorical earnings growth rateshistorical cash flow growth rateshistorical dividend growth rateshistorical sales growth ratescost of capitallong-term risk-management scores from MSCI, Morningstar, FactSet, S&P, Reuters'/Refinitiv, and Just Capitalmanagement qualitydividend friendly corporate culture/income dependabilitylong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)analyst consensus long-term return potentialIt actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by 12 rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.credit and risk management ratings make up 41% of the DK safety and quality modeldividend/balance sheet/risk ratings make up 82% of the DK safety and quality modelHow do we know that our safety and quality model works well?During the two worst recessions in 75 years, our safety model predicted 87% of blue-chip dividend cuts during the ultimate baptism by fire for any dividend safety model.That's because we don't miss anything important about a company's fundamental safety and quality.So how do GOOG and FB stack up on one of the world's most comprehensive and accurate safety and quality models?Meta: A Speculative 11/19 Quality Blue-ChipMeta Balance Sheet SafetyRatingDividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession1 - unsafe0% to 20%over 4%16+%2- below average21% to 40%over 2%8% to 16%3 - average41% to 60%2%4% to 8%4 - safe61% to 80%1%2% to 4%5- very safe81% to 100%0.5%1% to 2%FB100%NANARisk RatingMedium Risk (34th industry percentile risk-management consensus)Effective AAA stable outlook credit rating 0.07% 30-year bankruptcy risk2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Recommendation - speculative, turnaround stockLong-Term DependabilityCompanyDK Long-Term Dependability ScoreInterpretationPointsNon-Dependable Companies21% or belowPoor Dependability1Low Dependability Companies22% to 60%Below-Average Dependability2S&P 500/Industry Average61% (58% to 70% range)Average Dependability3Above-Average71% to 80%Very Dependable4Very Good81% or higherExceptional Dependability5FB67%Average Dependability3Overall QualityFBFinal ScoreRatingSafety100%5/5 very safeBusiness Model100%3/3 wide moatDependability67%3/5 average dependabilityTotal84%11/13 Speculative Blue-ChipRisk Rating2/3 Medium Risk2.5% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec - speculative, turnaround stock20% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good BuyAnd here's GOOG.Alphabet: A 13/13 Quality Ultra SWANAlphabet Balance Sheet SafetyRatingDividend Kings Safety Score (151 Point Safety Model)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession1 - unsafe0% to 20%over 4%16+%2- below average21% to 40%over 2%8% to 16%3 - average41% to 60%2%4% to 8%4 - safe61% to 80%1%2% to 4%5- very safe81% to 100%0.5%1% to 2%GOOG100%NANARisk RatingLow Risk (65th industry percentile risk-management consensus)AA+ stable outlook credit rating 0.29% 30-year bankruptcy risk20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap RecommendationLong-Term DependabilityCompanyDK Long-Term Dependability ScoreInterpretationPointsNon-Dependable Companies21% or belowPoor Dependability1Low Dependability Companies22% to 60%Below-Average Dependability2S&P 500/Industry Average61% (58% to 70% range)Average Dependability3Above-Average71% to 80%Very Dependable4Very Good81% or higherExceptional Dependability5GOOG89%Exceptional Dependability5Overall QualityGOOGFinal ScoreRatingSafety100%5/5 very safeBusiness Model100%3/3 wide moatDependability89%5/5 exceptionalTotal95%13/13 Ultra SWANRisk Rating3/3 Low Risk20% OR LESS Max Risk Cap Rec5% Margin of Safety For A Potentially Good BuyMeta: 114th highest quality company on the Masterlist: 78th percentileAlphabet: 39th highest quality: 92nd percentileBoth companies are exceptionally high quality given that our company database is one of the best in the world.The DK 500 Master List includes the world's highest quality companies including:All dividend championsAll dividend aristocratsAll dividend kingsAll global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)All 13/13 Ultra Swans (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street)48 of the world's best growth stocks (on its way to 100)But when it comes to overall quality, factoring in over 1,000 fundamental metrics, the winner is clearly once more Alphabet.Why is GOOG the hands-down winner in this quality fight with FB?CompanyQuality Rating (out Of 13)Quality Score (Out Of 100)Dividend/Balance Sheet Safety Rating (out of 5)Safety Score (Out Of 100)Dependability Rating (Out Of 5)Dependability Score (out Of 100)Meta Platforms11 Speculative Blue-Chip84%5 Very Safe100%3 average67%Alphabet13 Ultra SWAN95%5 Very Safe100%5 exceptional89%(Source: DK Research Terminal)Both FB and Meta have exceptionally strong balance sheets, making the risk of bankruptcy as close to zero as you can find on Wall Street.Alphabet's Balance Sheet: AA+ Rated By S&PGuruFocus PremiumGOOG has $140 billion in cash and just $13 billion in debt.Its advanced accounting metrics (F, Z, and M-score) are exceptional.F-score is a measure of short-term bankruptcy risk4+ is safe, 7+ very safe and GOOG's is 8M-score is 84% to 92% accurate at forecasting long-term bankruptcies1.81+ is safe, 3+ is very safe and GOOG's is 13.04M-score is 76% accurate at catching accounting fraud, and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting-1.78 or lower is safe and GOOG's is -2.48Meta's Balance Sheet: Effectively AAAGuruFocus PremiumThe only \"debt\" Meta has is receivables, it actually carries no long-term debt.That is why it's the largest company on earth that doesn't pay the $500K per year for a credit rating.However, given its current and historical advanced credit metrics, as well as its exceptionally strong solvency ratios (current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratios), I'm highly confident that it would be AAA-rated.because it's literally not possible for FB to default on debt it doesn't haveCredit Rating30-Year Bankruptcy ProbabilityAAA (Meta)0.07%AA+ (Alphabet)0.29%AA0.51%AA-0.55%A+0.60%A0.66%A-2.5%BBB+5%BBB7.5%BBB-11%BB+14%BB17%BB-21%B+25%B37%B-45%CCC+52%CCC59%CCC-65%CC70%C80%D100%(Sources: S&P, University of St. Petersberg)This means the fundamental risk of losing all your money over the next 30 years buying FB or GOOG today is approximately1 in 1,429 for FB1 in 345 for GOOGAnd both companies' balance sheets are expected to keep getting stronger over time.Alphabet: Consensus $441 Billion In Net Cash By 2027 FactSet Research TerminalMeta: Consensus $71 Billion In Net Cash By 2027FactSet Research TerminalNow let's consider profitability, Wall Street's favorite quality proxy.Profitability: Winner, Meta By A Small AmountMeta Profitability Vs PeersGurufocus PremiumAlphabet Profitability Vs PeersGurufocus PremiumBoth companies are profit-minting machines.YchartsThese are two of the most profitable companies on earth, and their industry-leading profitability has been stable or improving for over a decade, confirming a wide and stable moat.FactSet Research TerminalFB's free cash flow is expected to keep growing and reach $77 billion in 2027.This is expected to result in impressive buybacks in the coming years.$219 billion in consensus buybacks through 202738% of shares at current valuationsFactSet Research TerminalGOOG's annual free cash flow is expected to grow to $139 billion in 2027, allowing it to undertake even more impressive buybacks.$380 billion in consensus buybacks through 202721% of shares at current valuationsNow let's consider one important profitability metric in particular.Return on capital or ROC is Joel Greenblatt's gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.ROC = pre-tax profit/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business).S&P 500's average in 2021 was 14.6% (average investment pays for itself in 7 years)CompanyROC (Greenblatt)ROC Industry Percentile13-Year Median ROC5-Year ROC Trend (OTC:CAGR)Meta Platforms74%65%95%-16%Alphabet87%67%74%-7%(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)In the past year, GOOG's return on capital was higher than FB's and it's also above its 13-year median indicating a more stable moat.In other words, when it comes to profitability, FB edges out GOOG by a small amount, except in terms of return on capital, where it's once more the winner.Valuation: Winner, MetaCompanyAverage Fair ValueCurrent PriceDiscount To Fair ValueDK RatingPE 2022PEG 2022Meta Platforms$265.75$214.3519.6%Potentially Reasonable Buy17.191.49Alphabet$3,161.89$2,771.9212.3%Potentially Good Buy23.511.67(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)FB is trading at a slightly lower valuation and a higher margin of safety, though not quite high enough for me to consider it a good buy.20% discount is needed to make FB a potentially good buy given its lower quality and risk profileIf we back out cash we see that FB is once more the more undervalued company.FB EV/EBITDA: 9.5GOOG EV/EBITDA: 14.5However, both companies are trading at highly attractive valuations.Company12-Month Consensus Total Return Potential12-Month Fundamentally Justified Upside Total Return PotentialMeta Platforms48.47%23.98%Alphabet25.77%14.11%(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)This is why analysts expect both to deliver very strong returns, though FB potentially much more than GOOG.Of course, what happens in the next year doesn't matter as much as the kind of returns both companies can deliver over the long-term.Long-Term Total Return Potential: Winner, AlphabetCompanyYieldFactSet Long-Term Consensus Growth RateLT Consensus Total Return PotentialRisk-Adjusted Expected ReturnMeta Platforms0.00%11.5%11.5%8.1%Alphabet0.00%14.1%14.1%9.9%(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)GOOG is expected to grow significantly faster than FB over time, resulting in far better long-term returns.Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10 Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted ReturnEurope2.6%12.8%15.4%10.7%8.6%8.42.27Value2.1%12.1%14.1%9.9%7.7%9.32.10Alphabet0.0%14.1%14.1%9.9%7.7%9.42.10High-Yield2.8%11.3%14.1%9.9%7.7%9.42.10High-Yield + Growth1.7%11.0%12.7%8.9%6.7%10.81.91Safe Midstream + Growth3.3%8.5%11.8%8.3%6.1%11.81.80Meta0.0%11.50%11.5%8.1%5.9%12.31.77Nasdaq (Growth)0.8%10.7%11.5%8.1%5.9%12.31.77Safe Midstream5.5%6.0%11.5%8.1%5.9%12.31.77Dividend Aristocrats2.2%8.9%11.1%7.8%5.6%12.91.72REITs + Growth1.8%8.9%10.6%7.4%5.2%13.71.67S&P 5001.4%8.5%9.9%7.0%4.8%15.11.59Realty Income4.6%5.2%9.8%6.9%4.7%15.41.58Dividend Growth1.6%8.0%9.6%6.7%4.5%15.91.56REITs2.9%6.5%9.4%6.6%4.4%16.41.5460/40 Retirement Portfolio2.1%5.1%7.2%5.1%2.9%24.91.3310-Year US Treasury2.3%0.0%2.3%1.6%-0.5%-131.10.95(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)Both companies are expected to beat the S&P 500 over time, though FB merely to match the Nasdaq while GOOG is expected to run circles around big tech.What kind of difference does 2.6% per year in potential extra returns actually mean for your life?Inflation-Adjusted Consensus Return Forecast: $1,000 Initial InvestmentTime Frame (Years)7.7% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&P Consensus11.9% Inflation-Adjusted GOOG Consensus9.3% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted FB ConsensusDifference Between Inflation Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus Returns5$1,449.03$1,756.06$1,561.34$194.7110$2,099.70$3,083.73$2,437.79$645.9515$3,042.53$5,415.21$3,806.22$1,608.9920$4,408.74$9,509.42$5,942.82$3,566.6025$6,388.41$16,699.08$9,278.77$7,420.3130$9,257.02$29,324.53$14,487.34$14,837.19(Source: Morningstar, FactSet, Ycharts)Both FB and GOOG are likely to generate good returns but GOOG could turn a modest investment today into a potentially small fortune in the coming decades.Time Frame (Years)Ratio Inflation-Adjusted GOOG and FB Consensus51.12101.26151.42201.60251.80302.02(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)In fact, GOOG could potentially double FB's 30-year returns if both companies grow as analysts currently expect.Short & Medium-Term Total Return Potential: TieMeta 2024 Consensus Return Potential FAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchFB growing at 11.5% is worth about 20.5X earnings based on the company's historical PEG ratio.analyst 12-month consensus forecast is for 21.9 PEThis means that if FB grows as expected through 2024 it could deliver about 18% annular returns, far more than the 17% overvalued S&P 500 is likely to generate.What about the next five years?S&P 500 2027 Consensus Return PotentialYearUpside Potential By End of That YearConsensus CAGR Return Potential By End of That YearProbability-Weighted Return (Annualized)Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns202734.75%6.15%4.61%1.27%(Source: DK S&P 500 Valuation And Total Return Tool)For context, analysts expect 35% returns from the S&P 500, which adjusted for inflation and risk is 1% compared to the market's historical 6% to 7% real return.Meta 2027 Consensus Return PotentialFAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchFB could more than double your money if it grows as analysts expect over the next five years.3.2X the S&P 500 consensusGOOG 2024 Consensus Return Potential FAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchGOOG could deliver 13% annual returns through 2024 if it grows as expected.In the past GOOG has grown as slowly as 11% and billions of investors still paid 25.7X earnings, meaning that its historical market-fair value multiple of 25 to 26X earnings should still be valid.GOOG 2027 Consensus Return PotentialFAST Graphs, FactSet ResearchThanks to GOOG's faster growth rate analysts expect both companies to potentially deliver identical returns.about 14% annually over the next five yearsalso 3.2X better than the S&P 500Bottom Line: Both Are Great Companies But In The Battle Of Meta And Alphabet There Is One Clear WinnerDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolBoth Alphabet and Meta are wonderful companies, and as close to perfect growth blue-chip opportunities as you can find on Wall Street right now.far superior valuationsuperior qualitysuperior long-term return potential to the S&P 500However, when we examine both companies in their entirety one fact is clear.GOOG is a higher quality companyGOOG is a faster-growing company (with potentially 2X better long-term return potential than FB)GOOG has far better long-term risk management (to deal with the disruption the digital advertising industry is currently facing)GOOG has superior return on capital and a more stable moatWhile FB offers superior valuation and potentially double the short-term return potential, it's a speculative blue-chip currently going through the largest business pivot in the company's history.In contrast, GOOG is a faster-growing Ultra SWAN that is expected to buy back almost $400 billion worth of stock in the next five years, double that of FB.Simply put, if you can only buy one of these growth legends today, I recommend Alphabet, and that's why I have it as a core growth position in my correction plan.Not just for the next few weeks, but all of 2022 and beyond.Because at the end of the day, when you focus on safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk-management always, you never have to pray for luck on Wall Street, you make your own.Luck is what happens when preparation meets, opportunity.\" - Roman philosopher Seneca the younger","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887275040,"gmtCreate":1632056596280,"gmtModify":1676530693573,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887275040","repostId":"1198486138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198486138","pubTimestamp":1632023224,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198486138?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-19 11:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 ways men live without working in America","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198486138","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"How do they live? What are they doing for money? ","content":"<p>Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million people!</p>\n<p>How do they live? What are they doing for money? To me, this is one of the great mysteries of our time.</p>\n<p>I’m certainly not the first person to make note of this shocking statistic. You’ve heard people bemoaning this \"labor participation rate,\" which is simply the number of working-age men (usually counted as ages 16 to 64) not working or not looking for work, as a percentage of the overall labor force.</p>\n<p>It’s true that the pandemic, which of course produced a number of factors that made working more difficult never mind dangerous, pushed the labor participation rate to a record low. But the fact that millions of American males have not been working precedes COVID-19 by decades. In fact, the participation rate for men peaked at 87.4% in October 1949 and has been dropping steadily ever since. It now stands at 67.7%.</p>\n<p>As a business journalist for a good portion of those 70-plus years, I’ve looked at thousands of charts and graphs in my life, and I have to say this one is as jaw dropping as it is vexing:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/056158b8fa7157238c3d1521dd05c02e\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart of the U.S. labor force participation rate for men over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve</p>\n<p>Economists, sociologists, politicians, and cable news pundits each have their pet factors to explain the groundswell of non-work. But after digging down here, I’ve concluded there are many different forces at play. That’s what I want to explore today, which is: how men can live in America without working.</p>\n<p>I’m not talking about why men have lost their jobs — factories closing, layoffs, automation, outsourcing jobs overseas, even perhaps women entering the workforce, (in fact, the participation rate by women over the same time period is way up). What I want to get at is how they’re living without holding a \"real\" job, and by that I mean doing work where one reports income to the IRS, pays taxes and Social Security, etc.</p>\n<p>It’s important to note that every man in this group has his own story. They range from mentally ill homeless men who desperately need our help, to the I’m-doing-just-fine-thank-you-very-much, retired early, and former Silicon Valley coder. And there are infinite scenarios in between those two extremes, including, for instance, the many men who have chosen to bestay-at-home dadswhile their spouses work.</p>\n<p>It’s also the case that some men in this group may be unemployed and not seeking work because they’ve given up looking just for now — perhaps waiting for COVID to abate — and will start the search again soon. Here too, society needs to help.</p>\n<p>Still, none of this explains decade after decade of falling male employment.</p>\n<p>To that end, here to my mind are seven ways men are living without working in America:</p>\n<p><b>-Unemployment insurance</b></p>\n<p>Let’s start with this one because it’s a hot button issue. Conservatives and some liberals too have made the claim that state unemployment aid, coupled with $600 a week from the CARES Act, which was rolled out in March 2020, have reduced men’s need to work. (There are actually a variety of social programs at play,spelled out nicely hereby think tank The Century Foundation, which estimates that overall these programs have pumped $800 billion in the economy.) We’ll be getting a good read on whether all this relief did suppress employment now that CARES aid ended for some 7.5 million Americans earlier this month. But as Yahoo Finance’s Denitsa Tsekova reportedhereandhere, states that ended federal aid programs early didn’t see big increases in employment. That may mean these payments really weren’t enough to live off, or not enough to live off by themselves, which speaks to men looking to a combination of sources, like under the table income or family support and possibly some savings (see below).</p>\n<p><b>-Early retirement, pensions, disability and lawsuits</b></p>\n<p>Admittedly, this is a bit of a hodgepodge. And as is the case with many of these categories, hard data is tough to come by, but it is the case that millions of men under 64 are at least partly living off of pensions and 401(k)s. This would include everything from C-suite executives to union members. And don’t forget municipal workers, who make up almost 14% of the U.S. workforce. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are some 6,000 public sector retirement systems in the U.S.Collectively these plans have $4.5 trillion in assets,with 14.7 million working members and 11.2 million retirees. The plans distribute $323 billion in benefits annually, and again, some to men who are younger than 64. In fact in almost two-thirds of these plans,if you started working at 25, you max out at 57, a real inducement to stop working — at least at that job of course.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e26b293f8a939a54b78315c3375a18\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Volunteers load cars with turkeys and other food assistance for laid off Walt Disney World cast members and others at a food distribution event on December 12, 2020 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/NurPhoto via Getty Images)More</p>\n<p>There’s also disability insurance from the Social Security Administration that is beingpaid to some 9 million Americanswhomay receive payments many years before retirement age. That's why I am including disability here, but not plain vanilla Social Security, which you can’t receive until age 62. The maximum disability benefit amount you can receive each month is currently $3,148. (However, the average beneficiary receives about $1,277 per month, according to the law group Social Security Disability Advocates.) Overall, it looks like theSSA pays out some $130 billion in disability annually.That’s not nothing. Then there’s money paid out in medical malpractice each year, smaller true, but stillestimated to be in excess of $3 billion.And don't forgetpayments from legal settlements and class action lawsuits.</p>\n<p>You argue all day about the right or wrong when it comes to these payouts, but the fact is many of them didn’t exist, or not at this magnitude, decades ago.</p>\n<p><b>-Savings, trading stocks, and bitcoin</b></p>\n<p>Consider now men are living off savings, or from money made in the market or maybe even selling NFTs. How many is it exactly? Who knows, but quite a few for sure. First off, Americans on average do have some money in the bank. Savings as a percentage of disposable income,according to the Federal Reserve of Kansas City,hit a record high of 33% in the spring of 2020 and is still at 14%, or nearly twice as high as it was prior to the pandemic.</p>\n<p>And according to arecent survey by Northwestern Mutual,average personal savings are up over 10% compared to last year, from $65,900 last year to $73,100. Average retirement savings increased 13%, from $87,500 last year to $98,800 today. So there’s that.</p>\n<p>Next let’s look at investing — first stocks. It is not irrelevant to this narrative that the S&amp;P 500 has climbed from 2,480 on March 12, 2020 — the day after the World Health Organization declared COVID a pandemic— to 4,441 today, or almost 80%. That’s a huge gain. Much of the action of course has been retail investors and the meme stock boom, as millions of American males stuck at home with nothing to do all day for the past 18 months passed the time trading stocks. Credit Suisse estimates that since the beginning of 2020, “retail trading as a share of overall market activityhas nearly doubledfrom between 15% and 18% to over 30%,” as CNBC reported. How many men were doing this and supporting themselves? Unclear, but upstart trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) — the broker dealer of choice for many of these new investors — reported that it had22.5 million funded user accountslast month, up from 7.2 million in March of 2020. Let’s just say 15 million new accounts is quite a number.</p>\n<p>Now crypto. You can laugh all you want, but the simple fact is that theprice of bitcoinis up from $4,861 on March 12, 2000 to $47,763 today, or basically up 10X, (and remember it even hit $64,888.99 this spring). Back to Robinhood, which according to The New York Times, also reported last month that “revenue from cryptocurrency trading fees totaled $233 million, a nearly 50-fold jump from $5 million a year earlier.” (And those are just fees off the trades, mind you.) Bottom line: Folks have made money here. (Of course these guys should be paying taxes on all those stock and crypto gains.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809084435ffdcbc0695311d158bb7a98\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Robinhood Markets, Inc. CEO and co-founder Vlad Tenev and co-founder Baiju Bhatt pose with Robinhood signage on Wall Street after the company's IPO in New York City, U.S., July 29, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly<b>-Working for cash, aka the under-the-table economy</b></p>\n<p>This one is very tough to measure, too.A study by the Federal Reserve of St. Louisestimates that the average size of the “informal economy” in developed countries is 13% of GDP. Honestly, that could be off by many percentage points, but just to give you a ballpark, GDP in the U.S. this year is about $22 trillion. So 13% of that is $2.86 trillion. As it turns out, $2 trillion-plus, is a number that has been thrown around quite a bit (hereandherefor instance) when it comes to estimating the size of the cash economy in the U.S. Even if half that money is paid out to women, that still leaves, say, $1 trillion dollars being made by men in this country off the books. That’s a big chunk of change. Are more people than ever working for cash these days? Again, another question that’s impossible to answer. I would bet it’s not fewer. For example, my electrician Luis just told me he can’t get anyone to work for him anymore — they all want to get paid in cash.</p>\n<p><b>-Living off family members</b></p>\n<p>Just to take one facet,the Pew Research Center reportedlast year that the pandemic “has pushed millions of Americans, especially young adults, to move in with family members. The share of 18- to 29-year-olds living with their parents has become a majority since U.S. coronavirus cases began spreading [in early 2020], surpassing the previous peak during the Great Depression era. In July, 52% of young adults resided with one or both of their parents, up from 47% in February.” How many of these individuals are males living rent free (and sharing food too), which maybe means they don’t have to work? Who knows, but some. Ditto for males who have moved in with in-laws or siblings. And again, many men are choosing to stay home and take care of kids while their spouses work.</p>\n<p><b>-Illegal work</b></p>\n<p>Front and center here is selling illegal drugs. Sadly, business looks to be booming, that is if overdoses are any sort of measure.According to the Washington Post, overdose deaths hit 93,000 last year, up a stunning 30% from 2019. Most of the overdoses were attributed to opioids; heroin, synthetic opioids like OxyContin and in particular Fentanyl. (This despite drug dealers facingsupply chain issuesduring COVID.) How many Americans are in this business and who are they? A number is almost impossible to come by here, but as for who they are,a government report on drug trafficking arrestsfrom five years ago notes that ”the majority of drug trafficking offenders were male (84.9%), the average age of these offenders at sentencing was 36 years, 70% were United States citizens (although this rate varied substantially depending on the type of drug involved), and that almost half (49.4%) of drug traffickers had little or no prior criminal history.” How big a business is selling drugs in America? Could beas much as $100 billion.I think it’s fair to say that a market that size requires many thousands of employees.</p>\n<p>What about other types of crime and criminals, everything from robbers and thieves to prostitutes and pimps? To that point there aresome 2 million people incarcerated in the U.S.right now. (We have the highest absolute number and the highest per capita on the planet, and holdsome 25% of the world's total prisoners, according to the ACLU.) Being in prison is another way of living in America without working, I guess. But not counting those locked up, how many bad guys are out there on the street? Conservatively, it has to be thousands and thousands, and speaking to this story, they're all doing their thing and not participating in the labor force.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f8f4b3e6a5aa97a10f5c7bb22dec1d7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ORLEANS, MASSACHUSETTS - JULY 10: A man holds onto a clamming rake while clamming at low tide July 10, 2021 in Town Cove, Orleans, Massachusetts. He filled a bushel basket of cherry stone clams. (Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)More<b>-Living off the land</b></p>\n<p>This would include gardening, fishing, hunting, clamming, berrying, and just general foraging. The numbers here seem to be climbing. Here for instancefrom The Guardian:</p>\n<p>“Fishing and huntinglicense sales increased 10%in California during the pandemic, reversing years of decline. Clamming has grown in popularity for several reasons: people are looking for safe activities to do outdoors, but also some are clamming for subsistence and trying to get money from selling the shellfish (which is illegal without a commercial license).”</p>\n<p>Ditto for Washington state, according to The Spokesman-Review:</p>\n<p>“From the start of the 2020 licensing year in May through Dec. 31, WDFW [Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife] sold nearly 45,000 more fishing licenses and 12,000 more hunting licenses than 2019. The number of new license holders — defined as someone who hadn’t purchased one for the previous five years — went up 16% for fishing licenses and almost 40% for hunters.”</p>\n<p>As for growing vegetables in home gardens, yes, it is up, way up too. Even before the pandemic, there were estimates thata third of American families grew vegetables.Now this,NPRreported last year:</p>\n<p>“‘We're being flooded with vegetable orders,’ says George Ball, executive chairman of the Burpee Seed Company, based in Warminster, Penn.</p>\n<p>Ball says he has noticed spikes in seed sales during bad times: the stock market crash of 1987, the dot com bubble burst of 2000, and he remembers the two oil crises of the 1970s from his childhood. But he says he has not seen a spike this large and widespread.</p>\n<p>So there you have it. It’s a whole range of ways and means, behaviors and experiences. I’m sure I missed some, too. Again, some non-working men are in dire straits and need our help. Others are living non-working lives without burdening society or others, such as a fireman on early retirement (though some argue municipal employee pensions are too high), or an investor who made a ton of money in the market and called it quits, or maybe a wilderness guy living off the land in Alaska.</p>\n<p>And some non-working men are not playing fair. Like getting paid under the table, fudging insurance claims or social programs. Some freeload off relatives. And some engage in overtly illegal behavior like boosting branded goods from chain stores to sell online or dealing heroin.</p>\n<p>I would imagine that more than a few of these men create a portfolio of sources, though I’m not sure they really think of it that way. Take for example a hypothetical guy in a rural area who lives with his grandmother rent free, (he does help her with the garden some). This guy also does some cash carpentry work, hunts for game, gets some food off his ex-wife’s WIC and helps his brother sell some weed. Can you get by this way? Some men probably are. Is this the new American way? For some men it probably is.</p>\n<p>That example perhaps, and to be sure of all of the above, I think go a long way toward explaining that chart from the beginning of the story, the one that shows the labor participation rate falling off a cliff over the past seven decades. And speaking of charts, another striking one came to mind when I was writing this, which I put here below. It shows U.S. GDP over the same time period as the labor participation rate.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f197be5c6c11483ec906a1757293e4d\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve</p>\n<p>Of course, the line on this GDP chart is inversely correlated with the line on the labor participation graph. And I think there is a relationship between the two. Which is to say, the wealthier our nation has become over the decades, the less men are working. Fact is there is just a ton of money sloshing around in our country. And men seem to be able to get their hands on it, whether obtained legally, borrowed, leached off of or stolen.</p>\n<p>It seems like working legally to provide for yourself in America is really just one option these days.</p>\n<p><b><i>This article was featured in a Saturday edition of the Morning Brief on September 18, 2021. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET.Subscribe</i></b></p>\n<p><i>Andy Serwer is editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter:@serwer</i></p>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 ways men live without working in America</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 ways men live without working in America\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-19 11:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/020219c8820f9fc9f11979454ce1b1c6","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198486138","content_text":"Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million people!\nHow do they live? What are they doing for money? To me, this is one of the great mysteries of our time.\nI’m certainly not the first person to make note of this shocking statistic. You’ve heard people bemoaning this \"labor participation rate,\" which is simply the number of working-age men (usually counted as ages 16 to 64) not working or not looking for work, as a percentage of the overall labor force.\nIt’s true that the pandemic, which of course produced a number of factors that made working more difficult never mind dangerous, pushed the labor participation rate to a record low. But the fact that millions of American males have not been working precedes COVID-19 by decades. In fact, the participation rate for men peaked at 87.4% in October 1949 and has been dropping steadily ever since. It now stands at 67.7%.\nAs a business journalist for a good portion of those 70-plus years, I’ve looked at thousands of charts and graphs in my life, and I have to say this one is as jaw dropping as it is vexing:\nChart of the U.S. labor force participation rate for men over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve\nEconomists, sociologists, politicians, and cable news pundits each have their pet factors to explain the groundswell of non-work. But after digging down here, I’ve concluded there are many different forces at play. That’s what I want to explore today, which is: how men can live in America without working.\nI’m not talking about why men have lost their jobs — factories closing, layoffs, automation, outsourcing jobs overseas, even perhaps women entering the workforce, (in fact, the participation rate by women over the same time period is way up). What I want to get at is how they’re living without holding a \"real\" job, and by that I mean doing work where one reports income to the IRS, pays taxes and Social Security, etc.\nIt’s important to note that every man in this group has his own story. They range from mentally ill homeless men who desperately need our help, to the I’m-doing-just-fine-thank-you-very-much, retired early, and former Silicon Valley coder. And there are infinite scenarios in between those two extremes, including, for instance, the many men who have chosen to bestay-at-home dadswhile their spouses work.\nIt’s also the case that some men in this group may be unemployed and not seeking work because they’ve given up looking just for now — perhaps waiting for COVID to abate — and will start the search again soon. Here too, society needs to help.\nStill, none of this explains decade after decade of falling male employment.\nTo that end, here to my mind are seven ways men are living without working in America:\n-Unemployment insurance\nLet’s start with this one because it’s a hot button issue. Conservatives and some liberals too have made the claim that state unemployment aid, coupled with $600 a week from the CARES Act, which was rolled out in March 2020, have reduced men’s need to work. (There are actually a variety of social programs at play,spelled out nicely hereby think tank The Century Foundation, which estimates that overall these programs have pumped $800 billion in the economy.) We’ll be getting a good read on whether all this relief did suppress employment now that CARES aid ended for some 7.5 million Americans earlier this month. But as Yahoo Finance’s Denitsa Tsekova reportedhereandhere, states that ended federal aid programs early didn’t see big increases in employment. That may mean these payments really weren’t enough to live off, or not enough to live off by themselves, which speaks to men looking to a combination of sources, like under the table income or family support and possibly some savings (see below).\n-Early retirement, pensions, disability and lawsuits\nAdmittedly, this is a bit of a hodgepodge. And as is the case with many of these categories, hard data is tough to come by, but it is the case that millions of men under 64 are at least partly living off of pensions and 401(k)s. This would include everything from C-suite executives to union members. And don’t forget municipal workers, who make up almost 14% of the U.S. workforce. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are some 6,000 public sector retirement systems in the U.S.Collectively these plans have $4.5 trillion in assets,with 14.7 million working members and 11.2 million retirees. The plans distribute $323 billion in benefits annually, and again, some to men who are younger than 64. In fact in almost two-thirds of these plans,if you started working at 25, you max out at 57, a real inducement to stop working — at least at that job of course.\nVolunteers load cars with turkeys and other food assistance for laid off Walt Disney World cast members and others at a food distribution event on December 12, 2020 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/NurPhoto via Getty Images)More\nThere’s also disability insurance from the Social Security Administration that is beingpaid to some 9 million Americanswhomay receive payments many years before retirement age. That's why I am including disability here, but not plain vanilla Social Security, which you can’t receive until age 62. The maximum disability benefit amount you can receive each month is currently $3,148. (However, the average beneficiary receives about $1,277 per month, according to the law group Social Security Disability Advocates.) Overall, it looks like theSSA pays out some $130 billion in disability annually.That’s not nothing. Then there’s money paid out in medical malpractice each year, smaller true, but stillestimated to be in excess of $3 billion.And don't forgetpayments from legal settlements and class action lawsuits.\nYou argue all day about the right or wrong when it comes to these payouts, but the fact is many of them didn’t exist, or not at this magnitude, decades ago.\n-Savings, trading stocks, and bitcoin\nConsider now men are living off savings, or from money made in the market or maybe even selling NFTs. How many is it exactly? Who knows, but quite a few for sure. First off, Americans on average do have some money in the bank. Savings as a percentage of disposable income,according to the Federal Reserve of Kansas City,hit a record high of 33% in the spring of 2020 and is still at 14%, or nearly twice as high as it was prior to the pandemic.\nAnd according to arecent survey by Northwestern Mutual,average personal savings are up over 10% compared to last year, from $65,900 last year to $73,100. Average retirement savings increased 13%, from $87,500 last year to $98,800 today. So there’s that.\nNext let’s look at investing — first stocks. It is not irrelevant to this narrative that the S&P 500 has climbed from 2,480 on March 12, 2020 — the day after the World Health Organization declared COVID a pandemic— to 4,441 today, or almost 80%. That’s a huge gain. Much of the action of course has been retail investors and the meme stock boom, as millions of American males stuck at home with nothing to do all day for the past 18 months passed the time trading stocks. Credit Suisse estimates that since the beginning of 2020, “retail trading as a share of overall market activityhas nearly doubledfrom between 15% and 18% to over 30%,” as CNBC reported. How many men were doing this and supporting themselves? Unclear, but upstart trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) — the broker dealer of choice for many of these new investors — reported that it had22.5 million funded user accountslast month, up from 7.2 million in March of 2020. Let’s just say 15 million new accounts is quite a number.\nNow crypto. You can laugh all you want, but the simple fact is that theprice of bitcoinis up from $4,861 on March 12, 2000 to $47,763 today, or basically up 10X, (and remember it even hit $64,888.99 this spring). Back to Robinhood, which according to The New York Times, also reported last month that “revenue from cryptocurrency trading fees totaled $233 million, a nearly 50-fold jump from $5 million a year earlier.” (And those are just fees off the trades, mind you.) Bottom line: Folks have made money here. (Of course these guys should be paying taxes on all those stock and crypto gains.)\nRobinhood Markets, Inc. CEO and co-founder Vlad Tenev and co-founder Baiju Bhatt pose with Robinhood signage on Wall Street after the company's IPO in New York City, U.S., July 29, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly-Working for cash, aka the under-the-table economy\nThis one is very tough to measure, too.A study by the Federal Reserve of St. Louisestimates that the average size of the “informal economy” in developed countries is 13% of GDP. Honestly, that could be off by many percentage points, but just to give you a ballpark, GDP in the U.S. this year is about $22 trillion. So 13% of that is $2.86 trillion. As it turns out, $2 trillion-plus, is a number that has been thrown around quite a bit (hereandherefor instance) when it comes to estimating the size of the cash economy in the U.S. Even if half that money is paid out to women, that still leaves, say, $1 trillion dollars being made by men in this country off the books. That’s a big chunk of change. Are more people than ever working for cash these days? Again, another question that’s impossible to answer. I would bet it’s not fewer. For example, my electrician Luis just told me he can’t get anyone to work for him anymore — they all want to get paid in cash.\n-Living off family members\nJust to take one facet,the Pew Research Center reportedlast year that the pandemic “has pushed millions of Americans, especially young adults, to move in with family members. The share of 18- to 29-year-olds living with their parents has become a majority since U.S. coronavirus cases began spreading [in early 2020], surpassing the previous peak during the Great Depression era. In July, 52% of young adults resided with one or both of their parents, up from 47% in February.” How many of these individuals are males living rent free (and sharing food too), which maybe means they don’t have to work? Who knows, but some. Ditto for males who have moved in with in-laws or siblings. And again, many men are choosing to stay home and take care of kids while their spouses work.\n-Illegal work\nFront and center here is selling illegal drugs. Sadly, business looks to be booming, that is if overdoses are any sort of measure.According to the Washington Post, overdose deaths hit 93,000 last year, up a stunning 30% from 2019. Most of the overdoses were attributed to opioids; heroin, synthetic opioids like OxyContin and in particular Fentanyl. (This despite drug dealers facingsupply chain issuesduring COVID.) How many Americans are in this business and who are they? A number is almost impossible to come by here, but as for who they are,a government report on drug trafficking arrestsfrom five years ago notes that ”the majority of drug trafficking offenders were male (84.9%), the average age of these offenders at sentencing was 36 years, 70% were United States citizens (although this rate varied substantially depending on the type of drug involved), and that almost half (49.4%) of drug traffickers had little or no prior criminal history.” How big a business is selling drugs in America? Could beas much as $100 billion.I think it’s fair to say that a market that size requires many thousands of employees.\nWhat about other types of crime and criminals, everything from robbers and thieves to prostitutes and pimps? To that point there aresome 2 million people incarcerated in the U.S.right now. (We have the highest absolute number and the highest per capita on the planet, and holdsome 25% of the world's total prisoners, according to the ACLU.) Being in prison is another way of living in America without working, I guess. But not counting those locked up, how many bad guys are out there on the street? Conservatively, it has to be thousands and thousands, and speaking to this story, they're all doing their thing and not participating in the labor force.\nORLEANS, MASSACHUSETTS - JULY 10: A man holds onto a clamming rake while clamming at low tide July 10, 2021 in Town Cove, Orleans, Massachusetts. He filled a bushel basket of cherry stone clams. (Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)More-Living off the land\nThis would include gardening, fishing, hunting, clamming, berrying, and just general foraging. The numbers here seem to be climbing. Here for instancefrom The Guardian:\n“Fishing and huntinglicense sales increased 10%in California during the pandemic, reversing years of decline. Clamming has grown in popularity for several reasons: people are looking for safe activities to do outdoors, but also some are clamming for subsistence and trying to get money from selling the shellfish (which is illegal without a commercial license).”\nDitto for Washington state, according to The Spokesman-Review:\n“From the start of the 2020 licensing year in May through Dec. 31, WDFW [Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife] sold nearly 45,000 more fishing licenses and 12,000 more hunting licenses than 2019. The number of new license holders — defined as someone who hadn’t purchased one for the previous five years — went up 16% for fishing licenses and almost 40% for hunters.”\nAs for growing vegetables in home gardens, yes, it is up, way up too. Even before the pandemic, there were estimates thata third of American families grew vegetables.Now this,NPRreported last year:\n“‘We're being flooded with vegetable orders,’ says George Ball, executive chairman of the Burpee Seed Company, based in Warminster, Penn.\nBall says he has noticed spikes in seed sales during bad times: the stock market crash of 1987, the dot com bubble burst of 2000, and he remembers the two oil crises of the 1970s from his childhood. But he says he has not seen a spike this large and widespread.\nSo there you have it. It’s a whole range of ways and means, behaviors and experiences. I’m sure I missed some, too. Again, some non-working men are in dire straits and need our help. Others are living non-working lives without burdening society or others, such as a fireman on early retirement (though some argue municipal employee pensions are too high), or an investor who made a ton of money in the market and called it quits, or maybe a wilderness guy living off the land in Alaska.\nAnd some non-working men are not playing fair. Like getting paid under the table, fudging insurance claims or social programs. Some freeload off relatives. And some engage in overtly illegal behavior like boosting branded goods from chain stores to sell online or dealing heroin.\nI would imagine that more than a few of these men create a portfolio of sources, though I’m not sure they really think of it that way. Take for example a hypothetical guy in a rural area who lives with his grandmother rent free, (he does help her with the garden some). This guy also does some cash carpentry work, hunts for game, gets some food off his ex-wife’s WIC and helps his brother sell some weed. Can you get by this way? Some men probably are. Is this the new American way? For some men it probably is.\nThat example perhaps, and to be sure of all of the above, I think go a long way toward explaining that chart from the beginning of the story, the one that shows the labor participation rate falling off a cliff over the past seven decades. And speaking of charts, another striking one came to mind when I was writing this, which I put here below. It shows U.S. GDP over the same time period as the labor participation rate.\nChart of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve\nOf course, the line on this GDP chart is inversely correlated with the line on the labor participation graph. And I think there is a relationship between the two. Which is to say, the wealthier our nation has become over the decades, the less men are working. Fact is there is just a ton of money sloshing around in our country. And men seem to be able to get their hands on it, whether obtained legally, borrowed, leached off of or stolen.\nIt seems like working legally to provide for yourself in America is really just one option these days.\nThis article was featured in a Saturday edition of the Morning Brief on September 18, 2021. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET.Subscribe\nAndy Serwer is editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter:@serwer","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":18,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835249313,"gmtCreate":1629723916432,"gmtModify":1676530111585,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835249313","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161747692","pubTimestamp":1629673828,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161747692?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 07:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, personal income and spending: What to know this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161747692","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Traders this week are poised to focus closely on Federal Reserve policymakers' virtual appearance at","content":"<p>Traders this week are poised to focus closely on Federal Reserve policymakers' virtual appearance at the bank's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.</p>\n<p>The event, which takes place from Thursday to Saturday this week, is set to serve as a forum for more discussions around Fed policymakers' plans to announce and implement a shift in the central bank's monetary policy stance. Namely, investors have been closely watching for months to hear when officials will begin tapering their purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities, which have been taking place at a pace of $120 billion per month for more than a year during the pandemic.</p>\n<p>This asset purchase program had been a major policy underpinning U.S. equity markets this year, providing liquidity throughout the economic crisis induced by the virus. But as the economy makes headway in recovering, Fed officials' talk around pulling in the reins on this program has started to increase.</p>\n<p>Last week, Federal Reserve officials signaled the announcement of the start of tapering was edging closer. According to the meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, most monetary policymakers believed the economy will have made enough progress toward recovering to warrant tapering.</p>\n<p>\"Most participants noted that, provided that the economy were to evolve broadly as they anticipated, they judged that it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year because they saw the Committee’s 'substantial further progress' criterion as satisfied with respect to the price-stability goal and as close to being satisfied with respect to the maximum employment goal,\" according to the FOMC minutes.</p>\n<p>But as many pundits have noted, the central bank still has a host of meetings left in 2021 to serve as a platform for further discussing or announcing tapering. As a result, Jackson Hole this week may cause few ripples, with policymakers like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sticking to their previously telegraphed language about waiting to see further improvements in the labor market before escalating talk of tapering further.</p>\n<p>\"Jackson Hole next week is certainly a target for when we might hear some actual firm language around taper. I'm not really expecting much out of Jackson Hole,\" Garrett Melson, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions portfolio strategist, told Yahoo Finance last week. \"We're more in the camp that we probably start to hear something around the November meeting. Perhaps they're as quick as December to start actually implementing the taper. But I'm still more in the camp that January is probably when we begin to see a slow taper, probably in the ballpark of $15 billion per month.\"</p>\n<p>\"They're still very, very dovish. They're slightly less dovish,\" he added. \"But that's a little semantics at this point. Taper is very well documented and well known. We know it's coming. It's just a matter of timing and really shouldn't surprise many investors out there.\"</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd135dd0d8cdc399e0982d54e39f5bd\" tg-width=\"6000\" tg-height=\"4000\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing to examine the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, July 15, 2021, on Capitol Hill. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, file)ASSOCIATED PRESS</span></p>\n<p>As for the ultimate market impact of tapering, if the outcome is anything like the response from the last announcement of tapering in 2023, investors might brace for a momentary bout of volatility and some sector rotation beneath the surface.</p>\n<p>\"In 2013, Fed Chair Bernanke's comments about tapering catalyzed a five-day, 40 bp backup in 10-year yields and a 5% drop in the S&amp;P 500,\" said David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note last week. \"The initial signal from the taper tantrum ultimately proved fleeting during a year with extremely strong returns for equities.\"</p>\n<p>\"The S&amp;P 500 rebounded 5% in the roughly two months following the tantrum, led higher by the materials, consumer discretionary, and health care sectors,\" he added. \"By December, the S&amp;P 500 had posted a full-year return of 32%. As the Fed reiterated its commitment to accommodative policy, growth outperformed value and cyclical stocks outperformed defensives.\"</p>\n<h2>Personal spending, income</h2>\n<p>New economic data on consumer spending and income will also be in focus later this week, with reports on both metrics due for release on Friday.</p>\n<p>Consensus economists expect to see personal spending slow to just a 0.4% monthly clip in July, decelerating from June's 1.0% increase.</p>\n<p>Just last week, the Commerce Department's data showed retail sales fell more than expected in July, dipping by 1.1%. The print pointed to more moderation in spending as the impact of stimulus checks earlier this year waned further, and lowered the bar for the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly personal spending data.</p>\n<p>Other data has also underscored the slowdown in consumer spending, especially given the recent spread of the Delta variant starting in the middle of summer.</p>\n<p>\"Although services spending started strong in July boosted by the holiday, our aggregated BAC credit and debit card data suggest services spending, particularly for travel and leisure, slowed down noticeably in the second half of the month, potentially due to rising Delta concerns,\" Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note Friday.</p>\n<p>Friday's consumer spending report will also come with data on personal income, which is also expected to have ticked up only slightly on a monthly basis. Economists look for a 0.1% increase in July, which would match the pace from the prior month.</p>\n<p>Even with the deceleration in income, however, the personal savings rate may have increased as an early round of child tax credit payments helped offset a slowing pace of income growth, some economists noted.</p>\n<p>\"The advance child tax credit payments delivered this month translated into a lower tax burden and therefore a 1% month-over-month boost to disposable income, consequently leading to a rise in the savings rate to 10.0% from 9.4% in June,\" Meyer predicted.</p>\n<h2>Economic calendar</h2>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Monday: </b>Chicago Fed National Activity Index, July (0.09 in June); <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> U.S. Manufacturing PMI, August preliminary (62.8 expected, 63.4 in July); Markit U.S. Services PMI, August preliminary (59.0 expected, 59.9 in July); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, August preliminary (59.9 in July); Existing home sales, month-on-month, July (-0.3% expected, 1.4% in June)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Tuesday: </b>Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, August (25 expected, 27 in July); New home sales, month-on-month, July (3.6% expected, -6.6% in June)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Wednesday: </b>MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended August 20 (-3.9% during prior week); Durable goods orders, July preliminary (-0.2% expected, 0.9% in June); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, July preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.7% in June); Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, July preliminary (0.6% in June)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Thursday: </b>Initial jobless claims, week ended August 21 (352,000 expected, 348,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended August 14 (2.780 million expected, 2.820 million during prior week); GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter, Q2 second estimate (6.6% expected, 6.5% in prior print); Personal consumption, Q2 second estimate (12.3% expected, 11.8% in prior print); Core PCE quarter-over-quarter Q2 second estimate (6.1% expected, 6.1% in prior print); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, August (30 in prior print)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Friday: </b>Advanced goods trade balance, July (-$90.9 billion expected, -$91.2 billion in June); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, July preliminary (1.0% expected, 1.1% in June); Personal income, July (0.2% expected, 0.1% in June); Personal spending, July (0.4% expected, 1.0% in June); PCE core deflator, month-on-month, July (0.3% expected, 0.4% in June); PCE core deflator, year-on-year, July (3.6% expected, 3.5% in June); University of Michigan Sentiment, August final (71.0 expected, 70.2 in prior print)</p></li>\n</ul>\n<h2>Earnings calendar</h2>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Monday: </b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b>Tuesday: </b>Advance Auto Parts (AAP) before market open; Intuit (INTU) after market close</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Wednesday: </b>Best Buy (BBY) before market open; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a> (CRM), Autodesk (ADSK), Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Thursday: </b>The JM Smucker Co. (SJM), Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR) before market open; The Gap (GPS), HP Inc. (HPQ) after market close</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Friday: </b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release </i></p></li>\n</ul>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, personal income and spending: What to know this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Jackson Hole Symposium, personal income and spending: What to know this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-23 07:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-heads-to-jackson-hole-personal-income-and-spending-what-to-know-this-week-150228513.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders this week are poised to focus closely on Federal Reserve policymakers' virtual appearance at the bank's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.\nThe event, which takes place from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-heads-to-jackson-hole-personal-income-and-spending-what-to-know-this-week-150228513.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","WMT":"沃尔玛","XRT":"零售指数ETF-SPDR标普",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","TGT":"塔吉特","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust","BBY":"百思买"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-heads-to-jackson-hole-personal-income-and-spending-what-to-know-this-week-150228513.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2161747692","content_text":"Traders this week are poised to focus closely on Federal Reserve policymakers' virtual appearance at the bank's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.\nThe event, which takes place from Thursday to Saturday this week, is set to serve as a forum for more discussions around Fed policymakers' plans to announce and implement a shift in the central bank's monetary policy stance. Namely, investors have been closely watching for months to hear when officials will begin tapering their purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities, which have been taking place at a pace of $120 billion per month for more than a year during the pandemic.\nThis asset purchase program had been a major policy underpinning U.S. equity markets this year, providing liquidity throughout the economic crisis induced by the virus. But as the economy makes headway in recovering, Fed officials' talk around pulling in the reins on this program has started to increase.\nLast week, Federal Reserve officials signaled the announcement of the start of tapering was edging closer. According to the meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, most monetary policymakers believed the economy will have made enough progress toward recovering to warrant tapering.\n\"Most participants noted that, provided that the economy were to evolve broadly as they anticipated, they judged that it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year because they saw the Committee’s 'substantial further progress' criterion as satisfied with respect to the price-stability goal and as close to being satisfied with respect to the maximum employment goal,\" according to the FOMC minutes.\nBut as many pundits have noted, the central bank still has a host of meetings left in 2021 to serve as a platform for further discussing or announcing tapering. As a result, Jackson Hole this week may cause few ripples, with policymakers like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sticking to their previously telegraphed language about waiting to see further improvements in the labor market before escalating talk of tapering further.\n\"Jackson Hole next week is certainly a target for when we might hear some actual firm language around taper. I'm not really expecting much out of Jackson Hole,\" Garrett Melson, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions portfolio strategist, told Yahoo Finance last week. \"We're more in the camp that we probably start to hear something around the November meeting. Perhaps they're as quick as December to start actually implementing the taper. But I'm still more in the camp that January is probably when we begin to see a slow taper, probably in the ballpark of $15 billion per month.\"\n\"They're still very, very dovish. They're slightly less dovish,\" he added. \"But that's a little semantics at this point. Taper is very well documented and well known. We know it's coming. It's just a matter of timing and really shouldn't surprise many investors out there.\"\nFederal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing to examine the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, July 15, 2021, on Capitol Hill. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, file)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nAs for the ultimate market impact of tapering, if the outcome is anything like the response from the last announcement of tapering in 2023, investors might brace for a momentary bout of volatility and some sector rotation beneath the surface.\n\"In 2013, Fed Chair Bernanke's comments about tapering catalyzed a five-day, 40 bp backup in 10-year yields and a 5% drop in the S&P 500,\" said David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note last week. \"The initial signal from the taper tantrum ultimately proved fleeting during a year with extremely strong returns for equities.\"\n\"The S&P 500 rebounded 5% in the roughly two months following the tantrum, led higher by the materials, consumer discretionary, and health care sectors,\" he added. \"By December, the S&P 500 had posted a full-year return of 32%. As the Fed reiterated its commitment to accommodative policy, growth outperformed value and cyclical stocks outperformed defensives.\"\nPersonal spending, income\nNew economic data on consumer spending and income will also be in focus later this week, with reports on both metrics due for release on Friday.\nConsensus economists expect to see personal spending slow to just a 0.4% monthly clip in July, decelerating from June's 1.0% increase.\nJust last week, the Commerce Department's data showed retail sales fell more than expected in July, dipping by 1.1%. The print pointed to more moderation in spending as the impact of stimulus checks earlier this year waned further, and lowered the bar for the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly personal spending data.\nOther data has also underscored the slowdown in consumer spending, especially given the recent spread of the Delta variant starting in the middle of summer.\n\"Although services spending started strong in July boosted by the holiday, our aggregated BAC credit and debit card data suggest services spending, particularly for travel and leisure, slowed down noticeably in the second half of the month, potentially due to rising Delta concerns,\" Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note Friday.\nFriday's consumer spending report will also come with data on personal income, which is also expected to have ticked up only slightly on a monthly basis. Economists look for a 0.1% increase in July, which would match the pace from the prior month.\nEven with the deceleration in income, however, the personal savings rate may have increased as an early round of child tax credit payments helped offset a slowing pace of income growth, some economists noted.\n\"The advance child tax credit payments delivered this month translated into a lower tax burden and therefore a 1% month-over-month boost to disposable income, consequently leading to a rise in the savings rate to 10.0% from 9.4% in June,\" Meyer predicted.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, July (0.09 in June); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, August preliminary (62.8 expected, 63.4 in July); Markit U.S. Services PMI, August preliminary (59.0 expected, 59.9 in July); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, August preliminary (59.9 in July); Existing home sales, month-on-month, July (-0.3% expected, 1.4% in June)\nTuesday: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, August (25 expected, 27 in July); New home sales, month-on-month, July (3.6% expected, -6.6% in June)\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended August 20 (-3.9% during prior week); Durable goods orders, July preliminary (-0.2% expected, 0.9% in June); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, July preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.7% in June); Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, July preliminary (0.6% in June)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended August 21 (352,000 expected, 348,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended August 14 (2.780 million expected, 2.820 million during prior week); GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter, Q2 second estimate (6.6% expected, 6.5% in prior print); Personal consumption, Q2 second estimate (12.3% expected, 11.8% in prior print); Core PCE quarter-over-quarter Q2 second estimate (6.1% expected, 6.1% in prior print); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, August (30 in prior print)\nFriday: Advanced goods trade balance, July (-$90.9 billion expected, -$91.2 billion in June); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, July preliminary (1.0% expected, 1.1% in June); Personal income, July (0.2% expected, 0.1% in June); Personal spending, July (0.4% expected, 1.0% in June); PCE core deflator, month-on-month, July (0.3% expected, 0.4% in June); PCE core deflator, year-on-year, July (3.6% expected, 3.5% in June); University of Michigan Sentiment, August final (71.0 expected, 70.2 in prior print)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nTuesday: Advance Auto Parts (AAP) before market open; Intuit (INTU) after market close\nWednesday: Best Buy (BBY) before market open; Salesforce (CRM), Autodesk (ADSK), Ulta Beauty (ULTA) after market close\nThursday: The JM Smucker Co. (SJM), Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR) before market open; The Gap (GPS), HP Inc. (HPQ) after market close\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935880274,"gmtCreate":1663066631199,"gmtModify":1676537195012,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935880274","repostId":"1103196069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005376376,"gmtCreate":1642200304844,"gmtModify":1676533690741,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Thank you&nbsp;","text":"Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005376376","repostId":"1165451504","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887275846,"gmtCreate":1632056661085,"gmtModify":1676530693581,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887275846","repostId":"2168657952","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2168657952","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1631921580,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2168657952?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-18 07:33","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 closes below a key bullish trend line for the first time since June, signaling bearish tilt","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168657952","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"S&P 500 ends below 50-day moving average for first time since June 18\nThe broad-market S&P 500 index","content":"<p>S&amp;P 500 ends below 50-day moving average for first time since June 18</p>\n<p>The broad-market S&amp;P 500 index closed below its short-term trend line for the first time since mid June, signaling that a bearish turn is taking hold of the U.S. stock market ahead of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 index closed on Friday down 0.9% at 4,432.99, ending beneath its 50-day moving average at 4,436.67, FactSet data show. That marks the first breach of that short-term line in the sand since June 18, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p>\n<p>Many technical analysts see the 50-day MA as a guide to the short- to intermediate-term trend, so a close below the line could portend further weakness.</p>\n<p>Friday's decline marked the second in a row for the S&amp;P 500, led by a drop on the session in information technology and materials shares , wiping out the index's weekly advance.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 ended the week off 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite indexes, which both finished Friday lower, logged a weekly decline of 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 closes below a key bullish trend line for the first time since June, signaling bearish tilt</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 closes below a key bullish trend line for the first time since June, signaling bearish tilt\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-18 07:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 ends below 50-day moving average for first time since June 18</p>\n<p>The broad-market S&amp;P 500 index closed below its short-term trend line for the first time since mid June, signaling that a bearish turn is taking hold of the U.S. stock market ahead of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 index closed on Friday down 0.9% at 4,432.99, ending beneath its 50-day moving average at 4,436.67, FactSet data show. That marks the first breach of that short-term line in the sand since June 18, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p>\n<p>Many technical analysts see the 50-day MA as a guide to the short- to intermediate-term trend, so a close below the line could portend further weakness.</p>\n<p>Friday's decline marked the second in a row for the S&amp;P 500, led by a drop on the session in information technology and materials shares , wiping out the index's weekly advance.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 ended the week off 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite indexes, which both finished Friday lower, logged a weekly decline of 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168657952","content_text":"S&P 500 ends below 50-day moving average for first time since June 18\nThe broad-market S&P 500 index closed below its short-term trend line for the first time since mid June, signaling that a bearish turn is taking hold of the U.S. stock market ahead of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week.\nThe S&P 500 index closed on Friday down 0.9% at 4,432.99, ending beneath its 50-day moving average at 4,436.67, FactSet data show. That marks the first breach of that short-term line in the sand since June 18, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nMany technical analysts see the 50-day MA as a guide to the short- to intermediate-term trend, so a close below the line could portend further weakness.\nFriday's decline marked the second in a row for the S&P 500, led by a drop on the session in information technology and materials shares , wiping out the index's weekly advance.\nThe S&P 500 ended the week off 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite indexes, which both finished Friday lower, logged a weekly decline of 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091094628,"gmtCreate":1643727551783,"gmtModify":1676533849122,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091094628","repostId":"1196808170","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005734873,"gmtCreate":1642404093133,"gmtModify":1676533708169,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005734873","repostId":"2203192728","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005252576,"gmtCreate":1642323535249,"gmtModify":1676533701272,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005252576","repostId":"1161593163","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863902049,"gmtCreate":1632351040981,"gmtModify":1676530757444,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally","listText":"Finally","text":"Finally","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863902049","repostId":"1146187405","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832293497,"gmtCreate":1629633910919,"gmtModify":1676530082983,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go!","listText":"Go!","text":"Go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832293497","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839766404,"gmtCreate":1629182837508,"gmtModify":1676529956973,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorIdStr":"4089861821723520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good chance","listText":"Good chance","text":"Good 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