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2022-05-23

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Financial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!

2022-05-23

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How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?

2022-05-23

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The revenue is stable, the premium still exists, Zoom continues to cut meat with a blunt knife?

2022-05-23

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2022-05-23

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Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, the performance dilemma of giants

2022-05-17

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2022-05-17

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2022-05-06

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Are 30,000 shareholders high? This A-share was once on the verge of delisting, but now it wants to "pick the stars"?

2022-04-28

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Teladoc Health suspended intraday trading, shares fell more than 44% before suspension

2022-04-28

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2022-04-27

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2022-04-27

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Boeing Stock Hits New 52-Week Low as Losses Extend to Nearly 8%

2022-04-22

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2022-04-22

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Pre-market | Most Chinese concept stocks rose, JD.com rose nearly 4% supported by positive news

2022-04-12

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2022-04-12

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Interpretation of U.S. CPI data in March: Housing and energy prices are the main drivers of inflation

2022-04-11

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Markets Are Forming a Consensus: The Risk of U.S. Recession Is Growing

2022-04-11

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2022-04-08

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Opening | U.S. stocks opened with mixed gains and losses, Zhihu rose nearly 5%

2022-03-31

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18:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Financial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237286827","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"英伟达计划于美东时间5月25日美股收盘后公布截至4月30日的2023财年Q1业绩。在上一季度财报中，英伟达预估本季度（2023财年Q1）营收为81.0亿美元（上下波动2%），高于预期72.2亿美元；预","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>It is planned to announce the Q1 results of fiscal year 2023 ending April 30 after the U.S. stock market closes on May 25, Eastern Time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf0217d1952bf8213351c45058c163\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In the last quarter's financial report,<b>Nvidia estimates this quarter (</b>Q1 FY 2023<b>) Revenue of $8.10 billion (fluctuating 2% up and down), higher than expectations of $7.22 billion; It is estimated that the adjusted gross profit margin in the first quarter is 67.0% (fluctuating 0.5% up and down); Adjusted operating expenses are expected to be $1.60 billion, higher than the expected value of $1.46 billion.</b></p><p>The current market consensus estimate is that the company's Q1 total revenue will be US $8.09 billion and earnings per share (EPS) will be US $1.29, compared with total revenue of US $5.66 billion and earnings per share of US $0.92 in the same period last year.<b>Judging from historical data, Nvidia's total revenue and EPS have exceeded market expectations for 12 consecutive quarters.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72b8471534ea7cbf42bf3e0014e3a9ad\" tg-width=\"1524\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4501b7b3af70f7391780ecbb8d2a4be\" tg-width=\"1507\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>The market value has been halved, can Nvidia \"buy the bottom\"?</b></p><p>Nvidia hit an all-time high of $346.47 in November last year as strong demand and a global chip shortage sparked interest in the stock. Since then, concerns about a slowing economy and the outlook for rate hike have weighed on the stock, which is now down nearly 50% from its all-time high set late last year and 40% this year alone.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/497d3d251c9e30cdcc2f07e12a9e32f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>From</b><b><b>From the perspective of valuation, it is gradually reasonable</b></b></p><p>In terms of valuation, Nvidia still has a \"best-in-class\" premium to its relatively smaller competitors. From the perspective of expected P/E, Nvidia's value is still 30x, compared with its competitor AMD's 22x expected P/E, and other competitors' expectations for P/E are also relatively low.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Is 19x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Is 12x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Is 10x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Is 6x.</p><p>At present, the 1-year valuation of Nvidia's stock has been significantly lower than the average level and is at the lowest level of the 1-year period. Some analysts believe that this shows that,<span style=\"color:rgba(236,31,15,1);\"><b>If the latest results and guidance can match or even exceed market expectations, then this will be an excellent time for long-term investors to buy the company's stock at a reasonable valuation.</b></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207b753f81610ea29fae2accce1ef43d\" tg-width=\"443\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wall Street is bullish, Q1 is stable?</b></p><p>The market's expectations for Nvidia's first fiscal quarter are still high. Analysts expect revenue and profit to increase by more than 40% year-on-year. However, the global chip shortage may affect Nvidia. After all, Nvidia is an upstream Fab (chip designer) and is very dependent on foundry capacity. Last month, Nvidia noted that it was stepping up efforts to replenish its inventory of graphics processing products (GPU products), suggesting that the worst of the company's chip shortages may have passed.</p><p>Some analysts pointed out that although this bodes well for sales growth, the average selling price (ASP) of the company's products may be reduced due to the decline in demand, and may damage the company's profit margin value that has continued to amaze the market in the past. Analysts generally said that,<b>Will be watching closely for signals in the latest quarterly results report regarding any change in the balance of supply and demand for chips.</b></p><p><b>Agency Oppenheimer said that due to strong demand, Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report may be better than expected, and its data center business is expected to grow 75% year-on-year.</b></p><p>Oppenheimer analysts expect that,<span style=\"color:rgba(235,34,19,1);\">Fiscal first-quarter earnings per share and sales will beat Wall Street estimates of $1.30 and $8.1 billion, respectively.</span>The company expects that,<span style=\"color:rgba(242,34,18,1);\">Fiscal second-quarter EPS and sales will beat consensus estimates of $1.36 and $8.4 billion, respectively.</span></p><p>Oppenheimer said supply chain constraints should ease in the second half of the year, which is expected to drive results upside. \"Our long-term thesis remains unchanged as Nvidia's core leading gaming and AI strengths will remain poised for oversized structural growth,\" the analyst said. \"We remain long-term bullish on Nvidia.\"</p><p>Oppenheimer lowered his price target on Nvidia to $300 from $350, while reiterating its Outperform rating. The new target price shows that,<b>Nvidia's stock has a 77% upside.</b></p><p>Of the 44 analysts surveyed by Seeking Alpha, 27 have a \"strong buy\" rating. Another 8 companies marked it as \"buy\". Meanwhile, only one analyst listed Nvidia as a \"sell,\" while another eight listed it as a \"hold.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095d79d9ef83e42e91f4456852ad50b\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>At the end of the article, \"pouring cold water\" on investors who are optimistic about Nvidia,<b>If the market risk appetite continues to decline, coupled with the latest earnings report disappointing the market, it may lead to the breaking of the stock's $165 support level and the possibility of falling further towards $150 or even further towards the May 2021 low.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-23 18:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>It is planned to announce the Q1 results of fiscal year 2023 ending April 30 after the U.S. stock market closes on May 25, Eastern Time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf0217d1952bf8213351c45058c163\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In the last quarter's financial report,<b>Nvidia estimates this quarter (</b>Q1 FY 2023<b>) Revenue of $8.10 billion (fluctuating 2% up and down), higher than expectations of $7.22 billion; It is estimated that the adjusted gross profit margin in the first quarter is 67.0% (fluctuating 0.5% up and down); Adjusted operating expenses are expected to be $1.60 billion, higher than the expected value of $1.46 billion.</b></p><p>The current market consensus estimate is that the company's Q1 total revenue will be US $8.09 billion and earnings per share (EPS) will be US $1.29, compared with total revenue of US $5.66 billion and earnings per share of US $0.92 in the same period last year.<b>Judging from historical data, Nvidia's total revenue and EPS have exceeded market expectations for 12 consecutive quarters.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72b8471534ea7cbf42bf3e0014e3a9ad\" tg-width=\"1524\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4501b7b3af70f7391780ecbb8d2a4be\" tg-width=\"1507\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>The market value has been halved, can Nvidia \"buy the bottom\"?</b></p><p>Nvidia hit an all-time high of $346.47 in November last year as strong demand and a global chip shortage sparked interest in the stock. Since then, concerns about a slowing economy and the outlook for rate hike have weighed on the stock, which is now down nearly 50% from its all-time high set late last year and 40% this year alone.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/497d3d251c9e30cdcc2f07e12a9e32f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>From</b><b><b>From the perspective of valuation, it is gradually reasonable</b></b></p><p>In terms of valuation, Nvidia still has a \"best-in-class\" premium to its relatively smaller competitors. From the perspective of expected P/E, Nvidia's value is still 30x, compared with its competitor AMD's 22x expected P/E, and other competitors' expectations for P/E are also relatively low.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Is 19x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Is 12x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Is 10x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Is 6x.</p><p>At present, the 1-year valuation of Nvidia's stock has been significantly lower than the average level and is at the lowest level of the 1-year period. Some analysts believe that this shows that,<span style=\"color:rgba(236,31,15,1);\"><b>If the latest results and guidance can match or even exceed market expectations, then this will be an excellent time for long-term investors to buy the company's stock at a reasonable valuation.</b></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207b753f81610ea29fae2accce1ef43d\" tg-width=\"443\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wall Street is bullish, Q1 is stable?</b></p><p>The market's expectations for Nvidia's first fiscal quarter are still high. Analysts expect revenue and profit to increase by more than 40% year-on-year. However, the global chip shortage may affect Nvidia. After all, Nvidia is an upstream Fab (chip designer) and is very dependent on foundry capacity. Last month, Nvidia noted that it was stepping up efforts to replenish its inventory of graphics processing products (GPU products), suggesting that the worst of the company's chip shortages may have passed.</p><p>Some analysts pointed out that although this bodes well for sales growth, the average selling price (ASP) of the company's products may be reduced due to the decline in demand, and may damage the company's profit margin value that has continued to amaze the market in the past. Analysts generally said that,<b>Will be watching closely for signals in the latest quarterly results report regarding any change in the balance of supply and demand for chips.</b></p><p><b>Agency Oppenheimer said that due to strong demand, Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report may be better than expected, and its data center business is expected to grow 75% year-on-year.</b></p><p>Oppenheimer analysts expect that,<span style=\"color:rgba(235,34,19,1);\">Fiscal first-quarter earnings per share and sales will beat Wall Street estimates of $1.30 and $8.1 billion, respectively.</span>The company expects that,<span style=\"color:rgba(242,34,18,1);\">Fiscal second-quarter EPS and sales will beat consensus estimates of $1.36 and $8.4 billion, respectively.</span></p><p>Oppenheimer said supply chain constraints should ease in the second half of the year, which is expected to drive results upside. \"Our long-term thesis remains unchanged as Nvidia's core leading gaming and AI strengths will remain poised for oversized structural growth,\" the analyst said. \"We remain long-term bullish on Nvidia.\"</p><p>Oppenheimer lowered his price target on Nvidia to $300 from $350, while reiterating its Outperform rating. The new target price shows that,<b>Nvidia's stock has a 77% upside.</b></p><p>Of the 44 analysts surveyed by Seeking Alpha, 27 have a \"strong buy\" rating. Another 8 companies marked it as \"buy\". Meanwhile, only one analyst listed Nvidia as a \"sell,\" while another eight listed it as a \"hold.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095d79d9ef83e42e91f4456852ad50b\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>At the end of the article, \"pouring cold water\" on investors who are optimistic about Nvidia,<b>If the market risk appetite continues to decline, coupled with the latest earnings report disappointing the market, it may lead to the breaking of the stock's $165 support level and the possibility of falling further towards $150 or even further towards the May 2021 low.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a41d20711c9fa4b2aa3cc62ea62948","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2237286827","content_text":"英伟达计划于美东时间5月25日美股收盘后公布截至4月30日的2023财年Q1业绩。在上一季度财报中，英伟达预估本季度（2023财年Q1）营收为81.0亿美元（上下波动2%），高于预期72.2亿美元；预估第一季度调整后的毛利率为67.0%（上下波动0.5%）；预计调整后的运营支出为16.0亿美元，高于预期值14.6亿美元。目前市场普遍预计，该公司Q1总营收为80.9亿美元，每股收益(EPS)为1.29美元，相比之下，上年同期总营收为56.6亿美元，每股收益为0.92美元。从历史数据来看，英伟达总营收与EPS已连续12个季度超出市场预期。市值腰斩，英伟达能“抄底”吗？英伟达去年11月曾触及346.47美元的历史高位，因需求旺盛和全球芯片短缺引发市场对该股的兴趣。自那以来，对经济放缓和加息前景的担忧一直令股价承压，与去年年底创下的历史高点相比，目前该股已下跌近50%，仅今年以来就下跌了40%。从估值看，逐渐合理估值方面，英伟达仍比规模相对其较小的竞争对手拥有“同类最佳”溢价。从预期市盈率来看，英伟达该项数值仍为30x，相比之下，其竞争对手AMD为22x预期市盈率，其他竞争对手预期市盈率同样相对较低，德州仪器为19x、英特尔为12x、高通为10x，美光科技为6x。目前，英伟达股票1年期估值已明显低于均值水平，处于1年期的最低水平区域。有分析人士认为，这表明，如果最新业绩和业绩指引能够持平甚至超过市场预期，那么这将是长期投资者以合理估值买入该公司股票的绝佳时机。华尔街看多，Q1稳了？市场对英伟达第一财季的预期仍然较高，分析师们预计营收和利润将同比增长40%以上，但是，全球芯片短缺可能将波及英伟达，毕竟英伟达属于上游Fab(芯片设计商)，非常依赖晶圆代工厂的产能。在上个月，英伟达曾指出，其正在加大力度补充图形处理产品(GPU产品)库存，暗示该公司芯片短缺最严重的时期可能已经过去。有分析师指出，虽然这是销售额增长的好兆头，但公司旗下产品的平均销售价格(ASP)可能因需求有所下滑而降低，并可能损害该公司过去持续令市场惊艳的利润率数值。分析师普遍表示，将密切关注最新季度业绩报告中有关任何芯片供需平衡发生变化的信号。机构奥本海默表示，由于需求强劲，英伟达第一季度财报可能好于预期，其数据中心业务预计同比增长75%。奥本海默分析师预计，第一财季每股收益和销售额将分别超过华尔街预期的1.30美元和81亿美元。该公司预计，第二财季每股收益和销售额将分别超过市场普遍预期的 1.36 美元和 84 亿美元。奥本海默表示，供应链限制应该会在今年下半年缓解，预计这将推动业绩上行。“我们的长期论点保持不变，因为英伟达的核心领先的游戏和 AI 优势仍将为超大的结构性增长做好准备，“分析师表示。” 我们仍长期看多英伟达。“奥本海默将英伟达的目标价从 350 美元下调至 300 美元，同时重申其表现优于大盘的评级。新的目标价显示，英伟达的股价有 77%的上行空间。在Seeking Alpha调查的44位分析师中，有27位给出了“强烈买入”的评级。另有8家公司将其标记为“购买”。与此同时，只有一名分析师将英伟达列为“卖出”，另有八名分析师将其列为“持有”。文末，在给看好英伟达的投资者“泼盆冷水”，如果市场风险偏好继续下行，加上最新财报令市场感到失望，可能导致该股165美元支撑水平被打破，并有可能进一步跌向150美元甚至有可能进一步滑向2021年5月低点附近。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026991736,"gmtCreate":1653310153325,"gmtModify":1676535257559,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026991736","repostId":"1101749478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101749478","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653304230,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101749478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 19:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101749478","media":"星图金融研究院","summary":"在刚刚对新增的首套房贷利率下限下调了20个基点后，存量房贷也迎来重大利好。5月20日，央行公布LPR报价，一年期LPR维持不变仍为3.7%。但对于房贷人群影响重大的5年期以上LPR，从4.6%大幅下调","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After just lowering the lower limit of the new first-home loan interest rate by 20 basis points, the existing mortgage loan has also ushered in major benefits. On May 20, the central bank announced the LPR quotation, and the one-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.7%. However, for the LPR of more than 5 years, which has a significant impact on the mortgage crowd, it was significantly reduced by 15 basis points from 4.6% to 4.45%, which greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>The real estate market is related to people's livelihood. Whether it is with or without a house, it is very related to every policy of real estate. Under the impact of the epidemic, there are many stimulus policies, but policies related to real estate can always easily make hot search headlines.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, hundreds of prefectures and cities have introduced various measures including but not limited to adjusting purchase restriction policies, reducing down payment ratios, issuing housing subsidies, revising sales restriction policies, encouraging families with multiple children to buy houses, and providing financial support for housing companies. The policy is not small, but from the real estate sales data, the effect is obviously very limited.</p><p>At the moment when it is constantly emphasized that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\", why have all localities relaxed the property market, and the central bank has also issued a heavy policy of \"lowering interest rates\"? What is the follow-up impact on the stock market, real estate market and individuals?</p><p><b>Why should we reduce both new and existing mortgage interest rates?</b></p><p>After the Politburo meeting in April re-emphasized the confirmation of this year's economic goal of \"steady growth\", how to achieve \"steady growth\" has become a concern for the market.</p><p>From the perspective of the troika of investment, consumption, and net exports, although consumption accounts for the largest proportion, residents' expectations have weakened, and coupled with the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to boost it. In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1% year-on-year. In terms of net exports, the policies of countries such as Europe and the United States have gradually shrunk, representing U.S. consumption expectations. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 years, and external demand is also difficult to continue to grow. In terms of investment, among the three items of infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investment, manufacturing investment accounts for a small proportion and is affected by the current epidemic. Infrastructure and real estate have become an important starting point for \"steady growth\".<b>In order to \"stabilize growth\", under the current economic situation, it is necessary to stabilize real estate and develop infrastructure construction, and these two are precisely the main trends of the capital market in the first quarter.</b></p><p>Real estate has become the shortcoming of the current \"steady growth\". Faced with the weakness of the real estate industry, although since April this year, local governments around the world have begun to relax their real estate policies, by reducing the down payment ratio, providing housing subsidies, and canceling sales restrictions. and other policies to boost real estate sales. However, facts show that small regional stimulus policies are difficult to boost real estate market expectations. At the same time, the recent epidemic has further made it more difficult to restore real estate sales, and national stimulus policies are needed to further exert efforts to break the continuous negative feedback from the market. Judging from the fact that the upstream and downstream real estate contributes nearly 20% of GDP, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the mortgage interest rate of new house purchase demand and reverse residents' house purchase expectations, so as to achieve the goal of \"steady growth\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4d06202d676cd782a5289d856ebe25\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the real estate industry, policy support is also needed to ease the pressure of giving up financing. The thunderstorms of private real estate bonds have put great pressure on financial stability. Although the policy has continuously released good news about private enterprise financing this year, the \"ghost story\" of real estate companies has frightened the capital market, and the path for real estate companies to refinance is almost frozen. By adjusting the mortgage interest rate and guiding residents to buy houses to increase the sales revenue of real estate companies, it can greatly improve the cash flow of real estate companies, and further help improve the financing capabilities of real estate companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94bae5d1a285d153a82286faa69bea6c\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If these are all \"slow factors\", then the cliff-like decline in social financing data in April is the key to trigger the real estate stimulus policy in the national sense. According to the April social financing data released by the central bank on May 13, new credit was \"halved\" year-on-year. In particular, in April, housing loans in the residential sector decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, contributing nearly half of the year-on-year credit decrease. This shows that residents are not only reluctant to buy houses, but even prefer to pay off their mortgages rather than add new loans. The hot search \"I feel relaxed to repay the mortgage\" has proved the psychological expectations and status of the current mortgage crowd to a certain extent. If the current expectation of residents' continuous reduction in leverage cannot be reversed, then the real estate sales data may further deteriorate, which is undoubtedly a great challenge for the \"steady growth\" of the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a94cc6e2c31bd183ae74e4256e4c9f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, after the social financing data was released on May 13, the central bank quickly introduced this year's first national real estate stimulus policy on May 15, that is, lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate. For those who just need no house, it is a real preferential policy. Without considering other constraints, it can indeed stimulate the just-needed purchase demand. Of course, in real life, the mortgage interest rate is not the core contradiction that restricts consumers to buy houses, nor is it the primary consideration for consumers to buy houses. Lowering the mortgage interest rate has a limited effect on reversing expectations. But this at least represents the attitude of supervision towards the current real estate market, which is of great significance to the real estate financial policy at the national level.</p><p>After adjusting the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate, the market actually generally expects that the 5-year LPR will not be further adjusted on the LPR quotation announcement date on May 20. After all, the impact of the previous policy has not yet appeared, and the current monetary policy is still Affected by the internal and external pressures of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States and domestic inflation, the market generally expects the central bank to not further lower the LPR quotation. However, it is precisely for this reason that the 15 basis point reduction of the 5-year LPR greatly exceeded market expectations, and it is also the largest reduction after the LPR reform.</p><p>However, judging from the current market and economic situation, it is necessary to reduce the 5-year LPR. First, it lies in the strength of the policy. As mentioned earlier, the policy of \"lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate\" on May 13th has far greater signal significance than substantive significance. It is more due to the necessity of resolving real estate risks, implementing the easing signal of the Politburo, hedging the \"bad news\" of sluggish financial data, and boosting market expectations. However, the market is generally not optimistic about boosting real estate sales. Since the effectiveness of policies is limited, in order to stabilize real estate and economic growth, stronger policies are bound to be introduced to further reverse expectations.</p><p>The second is that compared with the incremental real estate market, the stock mortgage market is larger and the policy is more leveraged. After the May 3rd policy, many people reported on the Internet that they are now affected by the epidemic, and their income has been greatly reduced. They also need to lower interest rates to ease residents' loan repayment pressure. After the epidemic, more and more people have cut off their loans, and the number of foreclosure houses has increased significantly, all of which to a certain extent indicate the current loan pressure of repayers. At the same time, by lowering the 5-year LPR to alleviate the pressure of residents' interest expenses, it can also stimulate residents' consumption from the side to a certain extent, which is also the proper meaning of steady growth.</p><p><b>What is the follow-up impact?</b></p><p>First, let's talk about the impact on the capital market. Whether it is lowering the lower limit of personal first home loan interest rate by 20BP or lowering the 5-year LPR15BP, these can be said to be heavy real estate stimulus policies in the national sense that are rare after 2016. The signal is of great significance, so it will inevitably cause a huge wave of hype in the capital market. After the policy was released on May 13, the Wind Real Estate Index soared 4.37%, and the narrow trading day opened up 4.3%. However, the capital market has always valued expectations and is most afraid of \"boots landing\". After the LPR was announced on May 20, the real estate index fell by 1.2% instead of rising. For listed real estate companies, the policy goals may have reached an inflection point, but for those listed real estate companies that have already experienced thunderstorms and are about to experience thunderstorms, it is still unknown whether they can persist until the end. Therefore, the value of the current speculation of listed real estate companies does exist. As for the long-term investment value, it needs to be marked with a big question mark. After all, policy is not a panacea, and it is powerless for terminally ill patients.</p><p>The second is the impact on the real estate sales market. At present, real estate sales have experienced negative year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months since July last year, and the decline is still increasing due to the recent impact of the epidemic. According to CRIC statistics, in April 2022, more than 90% of the TOP50 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year decline in full-scale sales in a single month, and the year-on-year decline was basically more than 30%. If the disturbance factors of the epidemic after May can be taken into account, there is a high probability that the real estate sales data will continue to be repaired in the second half of this year. At the same time, according to the historical experience of real estate regulation and control, the improvement of sales data will lag behind the decline of mortgage interest rates by about half a year. However, considering the impact of the epidemic on sales and the normalization of offline consumption activities, the improvement of real estate sales may It will still take a long time.</p><p>Finally, it is the impact on residents who buy new houses and those who are repaying their loans. First of all, for those who just need to buy a house, according to the policies after May 13 and May 20, the interest rate of the first suite can be as low as 4.25%, and the interest rate of the second suite can be as low as 5.05%. For just needs, it should be a very attractive interest rate. As for the questions that many people are concerned about, \"Do you want to get on the bus now, do you want to wait and see\", no one can buy it at an absolute low point. For those who just need it, the room for short-term follow-up LPR reduction is already very small. There is limited room for mortgage interest rates to fall, and it is already a relatively good time. Of course, when it comes to buying a house, different people have different opinions. There is no absolute correctness, but more personal needs.</p><p>Another type of people who are greatly affected are those who are repaying their loans. Generally speaking, banks use the 5-year LPR as the benchmark, add certain points, agree on the interest rate in the contract with the buyer, and adjust it once a year. If the interest rate adjustment date is after May 20th, the adjusted interest rate will be 0.15% lower than before the adjustment. As for many people who agree to adjust interest rates on January 1st of each year, they can only wait until next year to enjoy preferential interest rates. According to the estimate, if the loan is 500,000 yuan and the equal principal and interest are repaid for 30 years, the interest expense can be reduced by about 16,000 yuan in total.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1653304243615","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">星图金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 19:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After just lowering the lower limit of the new first-home loan interest rate by 20 basis points, the existing mortgage loan has also ushered in major benefits. On May 20, the central bank announced the LPR quotation, and the one-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.7%. However, for the LPR of more than 5 years, which has a significant impact on the mortgage crowd, it was significantly reduced by 15 basis points from 4.6% to 4.45%, which greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>The real estate market is related to people's livelihood. Whether it is with or without a house, it is very related to every policy of real estate. Under the impact of the epidemic, there are many stimulus policies, but policies related to real estate can always easily make hot search headlines.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, hundreds of prefectures and cities have introduced various measures including but not limited to adjusting purchase restriction policies, reducing down payment ratios, issuing housing subsidies, revising sales restriction policies, encouraging families with multiple children to buy houses, and providing financial support for housing companies. The policy is not small, but from the real estate sales data, the effect is obviously very limited.</p><p>At the moment when it is constantly emphasized that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\", why have all localities relaxed the property market, and the central bank has also issued a heavy policy of \"lowering interest rates\"? What is the follow-up impact on the stock market, real estate market and individuals?</p><p><b>Why should we reduce both new and existing mortgage interest rates?</b></p><p>After the Politburo meeting in April re-emphasized the confirmation of this year's economic goal of \"steady growth\", how to achieve \"steady growth\" has become a concern for the market.</p><p>From the perspective of the troika of investment, consumption, and net exports, although consumption accounts for the largest proportion, residents' expectations have weakened, and coupled with the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to boost it. In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1% year-on-year. In terms of net exports, the policies of countries such as Europe and the United States have gradually shrunk, representing U.S. consumption expectations. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 years, and external demand is also difficult to continue to grow. In terms of investment, among the three items of infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investment, manufacturing investment accounts for a small proportion and is affected by the current epidemic. Infrastructure and real estate have become an important starting point for \"steady growth\".<b>In order to \"stabilize growth\", under the current economic situation, it is necessary to stabilize real estate and develop infrastructure construction, and these two are precisely the main trends of the capital market in the first quarter.</b></p><p>Real estate has become the shortcoming of the current \"steady growth\". Faced with the weakness of the real estate industry, although since April this year, local governments around the world have begun to relax their real estate policies, by reducing the down payment ratio, providing housing subsidies, and canceling sales restrictions. and other policies to boost real estate sales. However, facts show that small regional stimulus policies are difficult to boost real estate market expectations. At the same time, the recent epidemic has further made it more difficult to restore real estate sales, and national stimulus policies are needed to further exert efforts to break the continuous negative feedback from the market. Judging from the fact that the upstream and downstream real estate contributes nearly 20% of GDP, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the mortgage interest rate of new house purchase demand and reverse residents' house purchase expectations, so as to achieve the goal of \"steady growth\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4d06202d676cd782a5289d856ebe25\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the real estate industry, policy support is also needed to ease the pressure of giving up financing. The thunderstorms of private real estate bonds have put great pressure on financial stability. Although the policy has continuously released good news about private enterprise financing this year, the \"ghost story\" of real estate companies has frightened the capital market, and the path for real estate companies to refinance is almost frozen. By adjusting the mortgage interest rate and guiding residents to buy houses to increase the sales revenue of real estate companies, it can greatly improve the cash flow of real estate companies, and further help improve the financing capabilities of real estate companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94bae5d1a285d153a82286faa69bea6c\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If these are all \"slow factors\", then the cliff-like decline in social financing data in April is the key to trigger the real estate stimulus policy in the national sense. According to the April social financing data released by the central bank on May 13, new credit was \"halved\" year-on-year. In particular, in April, housing loans in the residential sector decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, contributing nearly half of the year-on-year credit decrease. This shows that residents are not only reluctant to buy houses, but even prefer to pay off their mortgages rather than add new loans. The hot search \"I feel relaxed to repay the mortgage\" has proved the psychological expectations and status of the current mortgage crowd to a certain extent. If the current expectation of residents' continuous reduction in leverage cannot be reversed, then the real estate sales data may further deteriorate, which is undoubtedly a great challenge for the \"steady growth\" of the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a94cc6e2c31bd183ae74e4256e4c9f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, after the social financing data was released on May 13, the central bank quickly introduced this year's first national real estate stimulus policy on May 15, that is, lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate. For those who just need no house, it is a real preferential policy. Without considering other constraints, it can indeed stimulate the just-needed purchase demand. Of course, in real life, the mortgage interest rate is not the core contradiction that restricts consumers to buy houses, nor is it the primary consideration for consumers to buy houses. Lowering the mortgage interest rate has a limited effect on reversing expectations. But this at least represents the attitude of supervision towards the current real estate market, which is of great significance to the real estate financial policy at the national level.</p><p>After adjusting the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate, the market actually generally expects that the 5-year LPR will not be further adjusted on the LPR quotation announcement date on May 20. After all, the impact of the previous policy has not yet appeared, and the current monetary policy is still Affected by the internal and external pressures of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States and domestic inflation, the market generally expects the central bank to not further lower the LPR quotation. However, it is precisely for this reason that the 15 basis point reduction of the 5-year LPR greatly exceeded market expectations, and it is also the largest reduction after the LPR reform.</p><p>However, judging from the current market and economic situation, it is necessary to reduce the 5-year LPR. First, it lies in the strength of the policy. As mentioned earlier, the policy of \"lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate\" on May 13th has far greater signal significance than substantive significance. It is more due to the necessity of resolving real estate risks, implementing the easing signal of the Politburo, hedging the \"bad news\" of sluggish financial data, and boosting market expectations. However, the market is generally not optimistic about boosting real estate sales. Since the effectiveness of policies is limited, in order to stabilize real estate and economic growth, stronger policies are bound to be introduced to further reverse expectations.</p><p>The second is that compared with the incremental real estate market, the stock mortgage market is larger and the policy is more leveraged. After the May 3rd policy, many people reported on the Internet that they are now affected by the epidemic, and their income has been greatly reduced. They also need to lower interest rates to ease residents' loan repayment pressure. After the epidemic, more and more people have cut off their loans, and the number of foreclosure houses has increased significantly, all of which to a certain extent indicate the current loan pressure of repayers. At the same time, by lowering the 5-year LPR to alleviate the pressure of residents' interest expenses, it can also stimulate residents' consumption from the side to a certain extent, which is also the proper meaning of steady growth.</p><p><b>What is the follow-up impact?</b></p><p>First, let's talk about the impact on the capital market. Whether it is lowering the lower limit of personal first home loan interest rate by 20BP or lowering the 5-year LPR15BP, these can be said to be heavy real estate stimulus policies in the national sense that are rare after 2016. The signal is of great significance, so it will inevitably cause a huge wave of hype in the capital market. After the policy was released on May 13, the Wind Real Estate Index soared 4.37%, and the narrow trading day opened up 4.3%. However, the capital market has always valued expectations and is most afraid of \"boots landing\". After the LPR was announced on May 20, the real estate index fell by 1.2% instead of rising. For listed real estate companies, the policy goals may have reached an inflection point, but for those listed real estate companies that have already experienced thunderstorms and are about to experience thunderstorms, it is still unknown whether they can persist until the end. Therefore, the value of the current speculation of listed real estate companies does exist. As for the long-term investment value, it needs to be marked with a big question mark. After all, policy is not a panacea, and it is powerless for terminally ill patients.</p><p>The second is the impact on the real estate sales market. At present, real estate sales have experienced negative year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months since July last year, and the decline is still increasing due to the recent impact of the epidemic. According to CRIC statistics, in April 2022, more than 90% of the TOP50 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year decline in full-scale sales in a single month, and the year-on-year decline was basically more than 30%. If the disturbance factors of the epidemic after May can be taken into account, there is a high probability that the real estate sales data will continue to be repaired in the second half of this year. At the same time, according to the historical experience of real estate regulation and control, the improvement of sales data will lag behind the decline of mortgage interest rates by about half a year. However, considering the impact of the epidemic on sales and the normalization of offline consumption activities, the improvement of real estate sales may It will still take a long time.</p><p>Finally, it is the impact on residents who buy new houses and those who are repaying their loans. First of all, for those who just need to buy a house, according to the policies after May 13 and May 20, the interest rate of the first suite can be as low as 4.25%, and the interest rate of the second suite can be as low as 5.05%. For just needs, it should be a very attractive interest rate. As for the questions that many people are concerned about, \"Do you want to get on the bus now, do you want to wait and see\", no one can buy it at an absolute low point. For those who just need it, the room for short-term follow-up LPR reduction is already very small. There is limited room for mortgage interest rates to fall, and it is already a relatively good time. Of course, when it comes to buying a house, different people have different opinions. There is no absolute correctness, but more personal needs.</p><p>Another type of people who are greatly affected are those who are repaying their loans. Generally speaking, banks use the 5-year LPR as the benchmark, add certain points, agree on the interest rate in the contract with the buyer, and adjust it once a year. If the interest rate adjustment date is after May 20th, the adjusted interest rate will be 0.15% lower than before the adjustment. As for many people who agree to adjust interest rates on January 1st of each year, they can only wait until next year to enjoy preferential interest rates. According to the estimate, if the loan is 500,000 yuan and the equal principal and interest are repaid for 30 years, the interest expense can be reduced by about 16,000 yuan in total.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ytImsNQymGtnI0HjrLsPcA\">星图金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ytImsNQymGtnI0HjrLsPcA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101749478","content_text":"在刚刚对新增的首套房贷利率下限下调了20个基点后，存量房贷也迎来重大利好。5月20日，央行公布LPR报价，一年期LPR维持不变仍为3.7%。但对于房贷人群影响重大的5年期以上LPR，从4.6%大幅下调15个基点至4.45%，大超市场预期。房地产市场事关民生，无论是有房的还是没房的，都非常关房地产的每一项政策。疫情冲击之下，刺激政策繁多，但事关房地产的政策总是能够轻而易举地冲上热搜头条。今年以来，有上百个地市出台了各种包括但不限于调整限购政策、降低首付比例、发放购房补贴、限售政策修改、鼓励多孩家庭购房、为房企提供资金支持等方面。政策力度不可谓不大，但从房地产销售数据来看，效果显然十分有限。在不断强调“房住不炒”的当下，为何各地纷纷放松楼市，央行也出了“下调利率”这一重磅政策？后续对于股市、房地产市场以及个人来说，又有何影响呢？为何要对新增及存量房贷利率双降？在4月政治局会议再次强调确认今年“稳增长”的经济目标后，怎样才能做到“稳增长”成为市场担忧的问题。分别从投资、消费、净出口这三驾马车来看，消费虽然占比最大，但居民预期转弱，再叠加疫情的影响，难以提振，4月社会消费品零售总额更是同比下降11.1%。净出口方面，欧美等国家政策逐渐收缩，代表美国消费预期密歇根大学消费者信心指数降至10年多来最低水平，外需也同样难以继续增长。而投资方面，在基建、房地产、制造业投资三项中，制造业投资占比小且受当前疫情影响，基建与房地产就成为“稳增长”的重要抓手。要想“稳增长”，在当前的经济形势下，就必须要稳住房地产，发力基建，而这二者，也恰恰是一季度资本市场的主线行情。房地产已经成了当前“稳增长”的短板，面对地产行业的弱势，虽然从今年4月以来，各地的地方政府已纷纷开始放松地产政策，通过降低首付比例、提供购房补贴、取消限售等政策来提振地产销售。但事实表明，区域性小幅度的刺激政策难以提振房地产市场预期。同时，近期的疫情又进一步加大房地产销售修复的难度，需要全国性的刺激政策进一步发力来打破市场不断的负反馈。以房地产上下游贡献近20%的GDP来看，适当地降低新增购房需求的房贷利率，扭转居民购房预期，从而实现“稳增长”的目标，十分有必要。而对于房地产行业而言，缓解放弃融资压力也同样需要政策支持。民营房企债券的纷纷暴雷，给金融稳定带来了极大的压力。虽然今年以来政策不断释放民企融资的利好消息，但房企的“鬼故事”已经吓坏了资本市场，房企再融资的路径几乎冰封。通过调整房贷利率，引导居民购房增长房企销售收入，能够很好地改善房企的现金流，更进一步也有利于房企融资能力的改善。如果说这些都是“慢因素”，那四月社融数据的断崖式下跌，则是触发全国意义上的地产刺激政策的按键。根据央行在5月13日公布的4月社融数据，新增信贷同比“腰斩”，尤其是4月居民部门住房贷款减少了605亿元，同比少增4022亿元，贡献近半的信贷同比降幅。这表明，居民不仅不愿意买房子了，甚至宁愿还掉房贷，也不愿意新增贷款。冲上热搜的“还房贷觉得一身轻松”一定程度上已经证明了当前房贷人群的心理预期和状态。如果不能扭转当前这种居民不断降杠杆的预期，那么房地产销售数据可能会进一步恶化，这对于经济的“稳增长”而言，毫无疑问是极大的挑战。因此，在5月13日公布社融数据后，央行很快的就在5月15日出台了今年首个全国意义的上的房地产刺激政策，即降低首套住房按揭贷款利率下限，这对于刚需无房者而言，是一个确确实实的优惠政策。在不考虑其他约束条件下，也确实能够刺激刚需的购买需求。当然，在现实生活中，房贷利率并非约束消费者购房的核心矛盾，也非消费者购房决策的首要考虑因素，下调房贷利率对扭转预期的作用有限。但这最起码代表了监管对当前房地产市场呵护的态度，对于全国层面对房地产金融政策来说，意义重大。在调整了首套住房按揭贷款利率下限，市场其实普遍预期在5月20日的LPR报价公布日，5年期LPR不会做进一步调整，毕竟前一个政策的影响尚未显现，而且当前货币政策还受到中美利差倒挂与国内通胀的内外部压力，因此市场普遍预计央行不会进一步的下调LPR的报价。不过也正是因此，本次5年期LPR15个基点的下调幅度大超市场预期，同时也是LPR改革后最大降幅。不过如果从当前市场与经济的情况看，5年期LPR的调降又有必要性。其一在于政策力度，如前所述，5月13日“降低首套住房按揭贷款利率下限”的政策，信号意义要远大于实质意义，更多的是出于化解房地产风险的必要性、落实政治局宽松信号、对冲金融数据低迷的“坏消息”、提振市场预期等，但对于提振房地产销售方面，市场普遍并不报以乐观态度，毕竟对于一个真正有能力的刚需购房者而言，并不会因为房贷利率降低或提升了0.2%就因此而决定买或不买。既然政策有效性有限，为了稳房地产、稳经济增长，势必就需要更强力的政策出台，更进一步地扭转预期。其二在于相对于房地产增量市场而言，存量房贷的市场更大，政策的杠杆性更强。很多人在5月3日政策后，在网上反映现在受到疫情的影响，收入大幅度降低，也需要降低利率缓解居民的还贷压力。疫情后断供者越来越多、法拍房数量大幅度增长，这些都一定程度上表明了当前还款人的供贷压力。同时，通过调降5年期LPR缓解居民的利息支出压力，也能一定程度上从侧面刺激居民消费，这也是稳增长中的应有之意。后续有何影响？首先说对于资本市场的影响。无论是下调个人首套住房贷款利率下限20BP，还是下调5年期LPR15BP，这些可以说是在2016年之后鲜有的全国意义上的重磅房地产刺激政策，信号意义巨大，所以必然会引起资本市场一波巨大的炒作。5月13日政策发布后，万得房地产指数暴涨4.37%，狭义交易日又开盘大涨4.3%。但资本市场向来看重预期，最怕“靴子落地”。5月20日公布LPR后，房地产指数不涨反跌1.2%。对于房地产上市公司而言，政策目标或许已经来到了拐点，但对于那些已经暴雷和马上暴雷的房地产上市企业而言，能否坚持到最后，仍然是尚未可知。因此当前上市房企炒作的价值确实有，至于长期投资价值，则需要打上一个大大的问号。毕竟政策不是万能药，对于病入膏肓的病人来说，也是无能为力的。其次是对于房地产销售市场的影响。目前来看，房地产销售自去年7月以来已连续10个月同比负增长，而且近期受到疫情的影响，跌幅仍在加大。根据克而瑞统计，2022年4月，TOP50房企中超9成房企单月全口径销售额同比下滑，同比降幅基本在30%以上。如果可考虑到5月后疫情的扰动因素修复，今年下半年大概率房地产销售数据会持续的修复。同时，根据历史上房地产调控的经验来看，销售数据的改善会滞后于房贷利率下降约半年左右，但同时考虑到疫情对于销售的影响，以及线下消费活动的正常化，房地产销售的改善可能仍需要不短的时日。最后是对于居民新购房以及正在还贷款的人的影响。先说对于刚需购房者，按照5月13日和5月20日之后的政策来看，首套房的利率最低可以到4.25%，二套房利率最低可以达到5.05%。对于刚需来说，应该是一个非常具有吸引力的利率。至于说很多人关心的“现在要不要上车，要不要等等看”这类的问题，没有人能够买在绝对的低点，对于刚需者而言，短期后续LPR调降的空间已经非常小，房贷利率下降的空间有限，已经是一个相对不错的时点。当然，对于买房这件事，仁者见仁智者见智，没有绝对的正确，更多是个人的需求。另一类受到比较大影响的则是正在还贷的人群。一般来说，银行都是以5年期LPR作为基准，并进行一定的加点，与购房者在合同中约定利率，并每年调整一次。如果利率调整日期在5月20日之后的，那调整后的利率将比调整前低0.15%。至于很多约定在每年1月1日调整利率的，就只能等待到明年后才能享受到优惠的利率。而按照估算，如果贷款50万元，等额本息方式还款30年，大约一共能够减少利息支出1.6万元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026991880,"gmtCreate":1653310078140,"gmtModify":1676535257512,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026991880","repostId":"1115112944","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112944","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653306175,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115112944?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 19:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The revenue is stable, the premium still exists, Zoom continues to cut meat with a blunt knife?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112944","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"概括：ZM股票从2020年10月的高点急剧下跌，但其仍具有显著的增长溢价。尽管溢价需要消化，但市场并未给Zoom投资者任何喘息的机会。我们将评级从买入调整为卖出，估计在达到显著底部之前可能存在27%的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>ZM stock has fallen sharply from its October 2020 high, but it still has a significant growth premium. Although the premium needs to be digested, the market has not given<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Any respite for investors. We revised our rating from buy to sell, estimating that there could be a potential downside of 27% before reaching a significant bottom. We highlighted in a previous article that the Zoom Video (ZM) bubble has burst. However, what we find interesting is that the market continues to digest its valuation, despite its profitability on a GAAP basis.</p><p>Furthermore, the most conservative price target of $100 does not protect ZM stock from further price declines.</p><p>We revisited our thesis in an attempt to understand why the market is so brutal despite the GAAP profitability of the sell-off in ZM stock. That's when we realized the market was probably pricing below expected EPS growth and the stock was still priced at a premium.</p><p>The market is continuing to digest its growth premium in a slow distribution process, dragging down bargain hunting before falling further.</p><p>Therefore, we believe that the sell-off in ZM stock may continue further. Despite having a massive cash reserve of more than $5.4 billion (roughly 21% of its market cap), ZM investors haven't been given any respite since October 2020.</p><p>Finally, we revised our rating on ZM stock from Buy to Sell. Given the significant normalization of ZM's EPS growth, we suspect that the current allocation process aims to bring ZM stock valuations more in line with the normalization of the overall market.</p><p><b>ZM Stock Remains Priced at Premium</b></p><p>Zoom's median P/E of 15.6 x is significantly lower than its 10-year median of 17.7 x. Therefore, it is clear that the market is pricing in a slowdown in Zoom's growth going forward, exacerbated by aggressive rate hike and rising inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543e27cd21bea297034626ff1a6e9730\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ZM Equity NTM Normalized P/E and NTM FCF Yield</p><p>It is worth noting that ZM stock last traded at 23.67 x NTM normalized P/E.<b>As a result, ZM still has a significant growth premium, although its earnings growth is likely to decline significantly in the coming years.</b></p><p>In our view, the market is pricing FY23 below management's guidance in Q4.</p><p>Zoom's guidance for the most recent quarter was $1.07 billion, and its upcoming FQ1 '23 earnings card rose 11.9% (up 12.3% year over year compared to the consensus estimate of $10.73).</p><p>Additionally, management guided FY23 revenue of $4.54 billion, up 10.7% year-over-year, in line with consensus estimates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a203f730936df773281837cec135f3ba\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zoom Revenue Consensus Estimate (S&P Capital IQ)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc080fbc8680762c511d850c75a4b492\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zoom GAAP EPS Consensus Estimate (S&P Capital IQ)</p><p><b>However, we think management and Wall Street may have underestimated the extent of the recovery in business travel.</b>We believe that Zoom's argument undoubtedly remains relevant. However, being able to accurately predict the growth rate of its reopening remains a major challenge.</p><p>Bloomberg reports that businesses see a stronger than expected recovery in global travel as the economy reopens to travelers. For example, FCM Travel emphasizes: \"Business is growing 80% of what it was in 2019 and in some places has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. It's returning much stronger than anyone expected.\"</p><p>As a result, we are concerned that management may miss its guidance for FY23, which will impact its GAAP EPS.</p><p>Wall Street consensus estimates suggest that Zoom's FY23 EPS could fall 60% year-over-year before rebounding in FY23.</p><p><b>As a result, ZM stock needs to digest its pandemic bubble growth to find a bottom. However, if Zoom lowers its revenue in FY23 or even FY24, its EPS estimates are at risk of further downward revisions.</b></p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>We think the market has been pricing in Zoom's FY23 guidance. It is worth noting that we did not observe market makers urgently throwing their chips.</p><p>Instead, as shown, they are just slow, deliberate distributions that have kept holders in constant losses for the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ca1aad9c8fa81c8e22880023ace78a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ZM Stock Price Chart (TradingView)</p><p>ZM stock is trading at a premium despite its sharp decline from its October 2020 high.</p><p>Therefore, we think it may continue to exhibit a downtrend to normalize its valuation afterwards. A more reasonable P/E would be around 17x, meaning Zoom still has a potential downside of 27.4%. So, we adjusted the rating of ZM stock from buy to sell.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1643368503284","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The revenue is stable, the premium still exists, Zoom continues to cut meat with a blunt knife?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe revenue is stable, the premium still exists, Zoom continues to cut meat with a blunt knife?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街大事件</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 19:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>ZM stock has fallen sharply from its October 2020 high, but it still has a significant growth premium. Although the premium needs to be digested, the market has not given<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Any respite for investors. We revised our rating from buy to sell, estimating that there could be a potential downside of 27% before reaching a significant bottom. We highlighted in a previous article that the Zoom Video (ZM) bubble has burst. However, what we find interesting is that the market continues to digest its valuation, despite its profitability on a GAAP basis.</p><p>Furthermore, the most conservative price target of $100 does not protect ZM stock from further price declines.</p><p>We revisited our thesis in an attempt to understand why the market is so brutal despite the GAAP profitability of the sell-off in ZM stock. That's when we realized the market was probably pricing below expected EPS growth and the stock was still priced at a premium.</p><p>The market is continuing to digest its growth premium in a slow distribution process, dragging down bargain hunting before falling further.</p><p>Therefore, we believe that the sell-off in ZM stock may continue further. Despite having a massive cash reserve of more than $5.4 billion (roughly 21% of its market cap), ZM investors haven't been given any respite since October 2020.</p><p>Finally, we revised our rating on ZM stock from Buy to Sell. Given the significant normalization of ZM's EPS growth, we suspect that the current allocation process aims to bring ZM stock valuations more in line with the normalization of the overall market.</p><p><b>ZM Stock Remains Priced at Premium</b></p><p>Zoom's median P/E of 15.6 x is significantly lower than its 10-year median of 17.7 x. Therefore, it is clear that the market is pricing in a slowdown in Zoom's growth going forward, exacerbated by aggressive rate hike and rising inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543e27cd21bea297034626ff1a6e9730\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ZM Equity NTM Normalized P/E and NTM FCF Yield</p><p>It is worth noting that ZM stock last traded at 23.67 x NTM normalized P/E.<b>As a result, ZM still has a significant growth premium, although its earnings growth is likely to decline significantly in the coming years.</b></p><p>In our view, the market is pricing FY23 below management's guidance in Q4.</p><p>Zoom's guidance for the most recent quarter was $1.07 billion, and its upcoming FQ1 '23 earnings card rose 11.9% (up 12.3% year over year compared to the consensus estimate of $10.73).</p><p>Additionally, management guided FY23 revenue of $4.54 billion, up 10.7% year-over-year, in line with consensus estimates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a203f730936df773281837cec135f3ba\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zoom Revenue Consensus Estimate (S&P Capital IQ)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc080fbc8680762c511d850c75a4b492\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zoom GAAP EPS Consensus Estimate (S&P Capital IQ)</p><p><b>However, we think management and Wall Street may have underestimated the extent of the recovery in business travel.</b>We believe that Zoom's argument undoubtedly remains relevant. However, being able to accurately predict the growth rate of its reopening remains a major challenge.</p><p>Bloomberg reports that businesses see a stronger than expected recovery in global travel as the economy reopens to travelers. For example, FCM Travel emphasizes: \"Business is growing 80% of what it was in 2019 and in some places has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. It's returning much stronger than anyone expected.\"</p><p>As a result, we are concerned that management may miss its guidance for FY23, which will impact its GAAP EPS.</p><p>Wall Street consensus estimates suggest that Zoom's FY23 EPS could fall 60% year-over-year before rebounding in FY23.</p><p><b>As a result, ZM stock needs to digest its pandemic bubble growth to find a bottom. However, if Zoom lowers its revenue in FY23 or even FY24, its EPS estimates are at risk of further downward revisions.</b></p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>We think the market has been pricing in Zoom's FY23 guidance. It is worth noting that we did not observe market makers urgently throwing their chips.</p><p>Instead, as shown, they are just slow, deliberate distributions that have kept holders in constant losses for the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ca1aad9c8fa81c8e22880023ace78a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ZM Stock Price Chart (TradingView)</p><p>ZM stock is trading at a premium despite its sharp decline from its October 2020 high.</p><p>Therefore, we think it may continue to exhibit a downtrend to normalize its valuation afterwards. A more reasonable P/E would be around 17x, meaning Zoom still has a potential downside of 27.4%. So, we adjusted the rating of ZM stock from buy to sell.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bhMOrKwTsJc-v8zTd9WhQg\">华尔街大事件</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ecabaf0839ef091b4b154187e60fd4","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bhMOrKwTsJc-v8zTd9WhQg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112944","content_text":"概括：ZM股票从2020年10月的高点急剧下跌，但其仍具有显著的增长溢价。尽管溢价需要消化，但市场并未给Zoom投资者任何喘息的机会。我们将评级从买入调整为卖出，估计在达到显著底部之前可能存在27%的潜在下行空间。我们在之前的文章中强调了Zoom Video（ZM）的泡沫已经破裂。然而，我们发现有趣的是市场继续消化其估值，尽管其按公认会计准则计算是有利可图的。此外，100美元的最保守价格目标并不能保护ZM股票免受进一步价格下跌的影响。我们重新审视了我们的论文，试图了解为什么尽管ZM股票的抛售具有 GAAP盈利能力，但市场仍然如此残酷。那时我们意识到市场的定价可能低于预期的每股收益增长，而该股的定价仍处于溢价状态。市场正在缓慢的分销过程中继续消化其增长溢价，在进一步下跌之前拖累了逢低买盘。因此，我们认为ZM股票的抛售可能会进一步持续。尽管拥有超过54亿美元的巨额现金储备（约占其市值的21%），但自2020年10月以来，ZM投资者一直没有得到任何喘息的机会。最后，我们将 ZM 股票的评级从买入调整为卖出。鉴于ZM的每股收益增长显著正常化，我们怀疑当前的分配过程旨在使ZM股票估值更符合整体市场的正常化。ZM股票仍处于溢价定价Zoom的市盈率中值为15.6倍，明显低于其10年中值17.7倍。因此，很明显，市场正在为Zoom未来的增长放缓定价，激进的加息和通胀加剧加剧了这种情况。ZM股票NTM标准化P/E和NTM FCF收益率值得注意的是，ZM股票的最后交易价格为23.67倍的NTM标准化市盈率。因此，ZM仍有显著的增长溢价，尽管其盈利增长在未来几年可能会显著下降。我们认为，市场对23财年的定价低于管理层在第四季度的指导。Zoom最近一季的指引为 10.7亿美元，其即将推出的FQ1'23收益卡上涨11.9%（与普遍预期的10.73美元相比，同比上涨12.3%）。此外，管理层指导FY23收入为45.4亿美元，同比增长10.7%，符合市场普遍预期。Zoom收入共识估计（S&P Capital IQ）Zoom GAAP EPS共识估计（S&P Capital IQ）然而，我们认为管理层和华尔街可能低估了商务旅行的复苏程度。我们相信，Zoom 的论点毫无疑问仍然具有相关性。但是，能够准确预测其重新开放的增长率仍然是一项重大挑战。彭博社报道称，随着经济重新向旅行者开放，企业认为全球旅行复苏比预期更加强劲。例如，FCM Travel强调：“业务增长速度是 2019 年的 80%，并且在某些地方已经超过了大流行前的水平。它的回归比任何人预期的都要强大得多。”因此，我们担心管理层可能会错过其对 23 财年的指导，这将影响其 GAAP 每股收益。华尔街的共识估计表明，Zoom 的 23 财年每股收益可能会同比下降 60%，然后在 23 财年反弹。因此，ZM 股票需要消化其大流行的泡沫增长才能找到底部。但是，如果 Zoom 将 23 财年甚至 24 财年的收入下调，其每股收益估计将面临进一步下调的风险。结语我们认为市场一直在定价 Zoom 的23 财年的指引。值得注意的是，我们没有观察到做市商迫切地抛出筹码。相反，如图所示，它们只是缓慢的、蓄意的分发，在过去两年中让持有者持续亏损。ZM股价走势图（TradingView）尽管ZM股票从2020年10月的高点大幅下跌，但其交易价格仍处于溢价状态。因此，我们认为随后可能会持续呈现下跌趋势以使其估值正常化。更合理的市盈率将在17倍左右，这意味着Zoom仍有27.4%的潜在下行空间。所以，我们将ZM股票的评级从买入调整为卖出。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026991102,"gmtCreate":1653310058106,"gmtModify":1676535257513,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026991102","repostId":"1126290013","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026991917,"gmtCreate":1653310038939,"gmtModify":1676535257505,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026991917","repostId":"1164195300","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164195300","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1653306799,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164195300?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 19:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, the performance dilemma of giants","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164195300","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"01 近期的大跌在交易什么？纳斯达克100指数（QQQ）年初至今已回撤28%，陷入熊市水平。最近更是弱得很彻底，几次反弹都仅持续一天，比如上周二，上上周五。这都是在交易什么呢？答案很直观：衰退。去年底","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>01 What is trading in the recent sharp drop?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8edd95d8668cffdcd24c533f4bd9b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) has a 28% year-to-date pullback/retracement and is stuck in bear market levels. Recently, it has been very weak, and several rebounds lasted only one day, such as last Tuesday and last Friday. What is this trading? The answer is intuitive: recession.</p><p>Beginning late last year, the Federal Reserve's policy shifted to combat the highest inflation level in decades. In this process, the magnitude and expectations of rate hike have been increased all the way. For a long time last month, the market even thought that a single rate hike of 75 basis points was a relatively high probability event.</p><p>Of course, this statement was basically ruled out by Powell. The current rate hike expectation is that the benchmark interest rate will reach 2.75% by the end of the year, which has basically remained unchanged since May. By the end of 23, the benchmark interest rate is expected to be less than 3%. Last month, this figure was basically around 3.25% (reflecting two rate hike next year).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9c1808c4381b077a7d4307844e3154\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This reflects the Federal Reserve's \"rate hike-ahead\" strategy, which increases the extent of rate hike in order to quickly reduce inflation and achieve a soft landing. However, with the release of the company's performance and guidance,<b>The market is increasingly worried about the high probability of a hard landing (recession) this time, just to see how much the recession can be controlled</b>。 This is also obvious from the trend of the bond market-the 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a high of 3.2% to 2.79% in two weeks, a drop of 41 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9845e1d0cee2152e0ac94ad55d280e82\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"747\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>02 Giant Performance</b></p><p><b>1. Apple</b></p><p>Both revenue and EPS exceeded expectations: operating income was 97.278 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.59%, expected to be 93.98 billion, exceeding expectations by 3.5%; EPS was 1.52, a year-on-year increase of 8.57%, and expected $1.43, exceeding expectations by 6.3%. EPS exceeded expectations by significantly greater than revenue. It can be intuitively seen that Apple's profit control level is excellent (supply chain control, internal management, investment, etc.). In addition, there is also Apple's strong brand mentality and pricing power behind it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24103c67c78d8d0612329937bca3afe4\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the conference call, CEO Cook said: We cannot survive alone during the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, supply chain disorder, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Q2 revenue may decrease by US $4-8 billion year-on-year due to these effects.</p><p>In other words, Apple's performance itself is good, but its expectations for the future are pessimistic. What is even more worrying is that Apple's valuation is still on the high side when the recession is likely to come true-</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dda42b06fae51c62bc1e062713484d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"747\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of May 19, Apple NTM PE is 23x, and the March 20 low is about 18x. In 2018, due to the superimposed impact of the economic cycle and product cycle (the released XS generation pulled the crotch, Huawei's high-end rise), the valuation was even lower (low point 12x). The current situation is that the impact of the product cycle is relatively small, but the valuation of 20x is not excessive (MR cannot be counted on for the time being, and car manufacturing is even more suspended), which means that there is room for a decline of about 15%.</p><p><b>2. Microsoft</b></p><p>The performance will not be updated much, and there are basically no dead ends, highlighting the stability of the old empire. You can refer to GS's model and target price for Microsoft.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b96246b3e6b476b64d1c2bdfeb49be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/634305503529e18ad43ef706772ec8f9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"746\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of May 19, Microsoft NTM PE was 24.8 x, a low of 23.3 x in March 20, and around 21x at the end of 18. According to the low point in March 2020, there is room for a valuation decline of about 6%, which is not too big.</p><p><b>3. Google</b></p><p>Revenue in line, EPS miss: revenue 68.01 billion, 23% year-on-year, expected to be 67.98 billion; EPS24.62,-6.35% year-on-year, expected 25.71. Net profit was 16.44 billion,-8.3% year-on-year, expected to be 17.4 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34073ee2f8b6ecad2713b16c4be71b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The cost side (gross profit margin, three rates) is normal, and the marketing expense ratio has increased month-on-month, but it is basically the same as the same period last year. Operating profit was 20.09 billion, +22% year-on-year; The operating profit margin is 30%, higher than the expected 28.8%, and there is no big operating problem (the slowdown in growth is within market expectations). The year-on-year decline in net profit was mainly due to other income/expenses (securities investment)-1.16 billion, compared with 4.85 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ab463cc8e2aa42bae7bb27bc71f5f72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of splitting the business, search advertising is +24.3% year-on-year, but Youtube is only +14.4% year-on-year (market expectations +23.2%). Reasons for the sharp setback in Youtube's growth:<b>Tiktok competition, Apple's new privacy policy (advertising accuracy issues), inflation, and spillover from the Russia-Ukraine conflict (mainly in Europe), the first two of which have a longer-term impact.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bf601b6c7cb1f83a1b1d35f062d839\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NTMPE is 18.5 x, which is the lowest in 5 years, and the low in March 20 is about 20x. Judging from this valuation level, there is not much room for further decline (even if it is a traditional industry, this valuation is not expensive). Of course, there is a common saying in the industry that \"don't buy technology stocks when they are cheap\", which reflects the problem of product life cycle, which is often more terrible than the economic cycle when it comes.</p><p><b>4. Amazon</b></p><p>This earnings season has been poor. Revenue was US $116.40 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and it was expected to be US $125 billion. Guidance for Q2 revenue of US $116 billion to US $121 billion, lower than market expectations of US $125.5 billion. Based on the median guidance of 1185, it was 6% lower than expected. EPS-$7.56 vs. + $8.40 expected. Guiding Q2 operating profit between-1 billion and 3 billion USD.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e003fce051ec8c2c575d18952239bd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Various costs have basically increased slightly, and inflation and supply chain pressures are still not small: Amazon imposed a 5% service fee on sellers for the first time this month, and raised the price of Prime from $119 to $139 last fiscal quarter. However, the operating profit margin still fell to 3.2% from 8.2% in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdbbfdf82debd610381949c61d0e39a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Free Cash Flow: $18.6 billion in net outflows (trailing 12 months) compared to $26.4 billion in net inflows in the year-ago quarter. Behind it is a large amount of investment in performance infrastructure and the acquisition of MGM.</p><p>Note: Rivian's stock price fell by about 52% in Q1, reducing the market value of Amazon's holdings by $7.6 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c2b54121a3dd6d18bf0bfdfe5000c74\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Amazon's FCF has dropped significantly in recent quarters (acquisitions, investments, etc), and the valuation isn't much to compare. However, considering the overall ebb of the consumer Internet (there is not much room for growth in e-commerce penetration), the stock price doesn't seem to have much support or flexibility.</p><p>Regarding Meta and Netflix, I won't expand too much. The thunderstorm of 21Q4 performance has clearly reflected that the product life cycle has reached the end. Although the valuation of this position is not expensive, it is difficult for people to want to get to the bottom. Both Tesla and Nvidia are long-term, with short-term fundamentals headwinds, but the long-term growth prospects are still positive.</p><p><b>03 Shangchao financial report thunderstorm: exacerbating stagflation/recession concerns</b></p><p>Last week, supermarket stocks experienced continuous thunderstorms. Wal-Mart, Target, and Ross Department Store performed-11%,-25%, and-22% respectively on the day of the financial report. For the historically stable must-choose consumer sector, it simply fell out of the feeling of destruction. The reasons are actually similar, they are too heavily affected by inflation. Let's look at Wal-Mart-</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab7efb822f462481b294a17ac9c39128\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In fact, Wal-Mart's revenue problem this quarter was not big (141.57 billion vs. the expected 139.09 billion), mainly due to EPS problems.</p><p>-Supply chain problems unexpected: oil prices and e-commerce fulfillment costs are too high;</p><p>-The shift of product mix to groceries puts pressure on gross profit;</p><p>-The price reduction of general commodities is $100 million more than expected;</p><p>-Rising labor/management costs.</p><p>This means that Wal-Mart has not passed on inflationary pressures to consumers or upstream suppliers. Judging from the management's guidance, this year's EPS is expected to be-1% year-on-year, which means that Wal-Mart will continue to face cost pressures.</p><p><b>04 Summary</b></p><p>This quarter's performance and guidance seem to be precursors of stagflation and recession, but the economy itself is a cycle, and when there is prosperity, there will be troughs, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. At present, we are in the middle of the recession narrative. No one can tell where we will fall and what new ghost stories will come out, but we might as well take this opportunity to deepen research and reflection. After all, few people do this when the wind goes smoothly.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, the performance dilemma of giants</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, the performance dilemma of giants\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-23 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>01 What is trading in the recent sharp drop?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8edd95d8668cffdcd24c533f4bd9b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) has a 28% year-to-date pullback/retracement and is stuck in bear market levels. Recently, it has been very weak, and several rebounds lasted only one day, such as last Tuesday and last Friday. What is this trading? The answer is intuitive: recession.</p><p>Beginning late last year, the Federal Reserve's policy shifted to combat the highest inflation level in decades. In this process, the magnitude and expectations of rate hike have been increased all the way. For a long time last month, the market even thought that a single rate hike of 75 basis points was a relatively high probability event.</p><p>Of course, this statement was basically ruled out by Powell. The current rate hike expectation is that the benchmark interest rate will reach 2.75% by the end of the year, which has basically remained unchanged since May. By the end of 23, the benchmark interest rate is expected to be less than 3%. Last month, this figure was basically around 3.25% (reflecting two rate hike next year).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9c1808c4381b077a7d4307844e3154\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This reflects the Federal Reserve's \"rate hike-ahead\" strategy, which increases the extent of rate hike in order to quickly reduce inflation and achieve a soft landing. However, with the release of the company's performance and guidance,<b>The market is increasingly worried about the high probability of a hard landing (recession) this time, just to see how much the recession can be controlled</b>。 This is also obvious from the trend of the bond market-the 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a high of 3.2% to 2.79% in two weeks, a drop of 41 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9845e1d0cee2152e0ac94ad55d280e82\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"747\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>02 Giant Performance</b></p><p><b>1. Apple</b></p><p>Both revenue and EPS exceeded expectations: operating income was 97.278 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.59%, expected to be 93.98 billion, exceeding expectations by 3.5%; EPS was 1.52, a year-on-year increase of 8.57%, and expected $1.43, exceeding expectations by 6.3%. EPS exceeded expectations by significantly greater than revenue. It can be intuitively seen that Apple's profit control level is excellent (supply chain control, internal management, investment, etc.). In addition, there is also Apple's strong brand mentality and pricing power behind it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24103c67c78d8d0612329937bca3afe4\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the conference call, CEO Cook said: We cannot survive alone during the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, supply chain disorder, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Q2 revenue may decrease by US $4-8 billion year-on-year due to these effects.</p><p>In other words, Apple's performance itself is good, but its expectations for the future are pessimistic. What is even more worrying is that Apple's valuation is still on the high side when the recession is likely to come true-</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dda42b06fae51c62bc1e062713484d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"747\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of May 19, Apple NTM PE is 23x, and the March 20 low is about 18x. In 2018, due to the superimposed impact of the economic cycle and product cycle (the released XS generation pulled the crotch, Huawei's high-end rise), the valuation was even lower (low point 12x). The current situation is that the impact of the product cycle is relatively small, but the valuation of 20x is not excessive (MR cannot be counted on for the time being, and car manufacturing is even more suspended), which means that there is room for a decline of about 15%.</p><p><b>2. Microsoft</b></p><p>The performance will not be updated much, and there are basically no dead ends, highlighting the stability of the old empire. You can refer to GS's model and target price for Microsoft.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b96246b3e6b476b64d1c2bdfeb49be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/634305503529e18ad43ef706772ec8f9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"746\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of May 19, Microsoft NTM PE was 24.8 x, a low of 23.3 x in March 20, and around 21x at the end of 18. According to the low point in March 2020, there is room for a valuation decline of about 6%, which is not too big.</p><p><b>3. Google</b></p><p>Revenue in line, EPS miss: revenue 68.01 billion, 23% year-on-year, expected to be 67.98 billion; EPS24.62,-6.35% year-on-year, expected 25.71. Net profit was 16.44 billion,-8.3% year-on-year, expected to be 17.4 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34073ee2f8b6ecad2713b16c4be71b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The cost side (gross profit margin, three rates) is normal, and the marketing expense ratio has increased month-on-month, but it is basically the same as the same period last year. Operating profit was 20.09 billion, +22% year-on-year; The operating profit margin is 30%, higher than the expected 28.8%, and there is no big operating problem (the slowdown in growth is within market expectations). The year-on-year decline in net profit was mainly due to other income/expenses (securities investment)-1.16 billion, compared with 4.85 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ab463cc8e2aa42bae7bb27bc71f5f72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of splitting the business, search advertising is +24.3% year-on-year, but Youtube is only +14.4% year-on-year (market expectations +23.2%). Reasons for the sharp setback in Youtube's growth:<b>Tiktok competition, Apple's new privacy policy (advertising accuracy issues), inflation, and spillover from the Russia-Ukraine conflict (mainly in Europe), the first two of which have a longer-term impact.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bf601b6c7cb1f83a1b1d35f062d839\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NTMPE is 18.5 x, which is the lowest in 5 years, and the low in March 20 is about 20x. Judging from this valuation level, there is not much room for further decline (even if it is a traditional industry, this valuation is not expensive). Of course, there is a common saying in the industry that \"don't buy technology stocks when they are cheap\", which reflects the problem of product life cycle, which is often more terrible than the economic cycle when it comes.</p><p><b>4. Amazon</b></p><p>This earnings season has been poor. Revenue was US $116.40 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and it was expected to be US $125 billion. Guidance for Q2 revenue of US $116 billion to US $121 billion, lower than market expectations of US $125.5 billion. Based on the median guidance of 1185, it was 6% lower than expected. EPS-$7.56 vs. + $8.40 expected. Guiding Q2 operating profit between-1 billion and 3 billion USD.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e003fce051ec8c2c575d18952239bd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Various costs have basically increased slightly, and inflation and supply chain pressures are still not small: Amazon imposed a 5% service fee on sellers for the first time this month, and raised the price of Prime from $119 to $139 last fiscal quarter. However, the operating profit margin still fell to 3.2% from 8.2% in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdbbfdf82debd610381949c61d0e39a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Free Cash Flow: $18.6 billion in net outflows (trailing 12 months) compared to $26.4 billion in net inflows in the year-ago quarter. Behind it is a large amount of investment in performance infrastructure and the acquisition of MGM.</p><p>Note: Rivian's stock price fell by about 52% in Q1, reducing the market value of Amazon's holdings by $7.6 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c2b54121a3dd6d18bf0bfdfe5000c74\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Amazon's FCF has dropped significantly in recent quarters (acquisitions, investments, etc), and the valuation isn't much to compare. However, considering the overall ebb of the consumer Internet (there is not much room for growth in e-commerce penetration), the stock price doesn't seem to have much support or flexibility.</p><p>Regarding Meta and Netflix, I won't expand too much. The thunderstorm of 21Q4 performance has clearly reflected that the product life cycle has reached the end. Although the valuation of this position is not expensive, it is difficult for people to want to get to the bottom. Both Tesla and Nvidia are long-term, with short-term fundamentals headwinds, but the long-term growth prospects are still positive.</p><p><b>03 Shangchao financial report thunderstorm: exacerbating stagflation/recession concerns</b></p><p>Last week, supermarket stocks experienced continuous thunderstorms. Wal-Mart, Target, and Ross Department Store performed-11%,-25%, and-22% respectively on the day of the financial report. For the historically stable must-choose consumer sector, it simply fell out of the feeling of destruction. The reasons are actually similar, they are too heavily affected by inflation. Let's look at Wal-Mart-</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab7efb822f462481b294a17ac9c39128\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In fact, Wal-Mart's revenue problem this quarter was not big (141.57 billion vs. the expected 139.09 billion), mainly due to EPS problems.</p><p>-Supply chain problems unexpected: oil prices and e-commerce fulfillment costs are too high;</p><p>-The shift of product mix to groceries puts pressure on gross profit;</p><p>-The price reduction of general commodities is $100 million more than expected;</p><p>-Rising labor/management costs.</p><p>This means that Wal-Mart has not passed on inflationary pressures to consumers or upstream suppliers. Judging from the management's guidance, this year's EPS is expected to be-1% year-on-year, which means that Wal-Mart will continue to face cost pressures.</p><p><b>04 Summary</b></p><p>This quarter's performance and guidance seem to be precursors of stagflation and recession, but the economy itself is a cycle, and when there is prosperity, there will be troughs, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. At present, we are in the middle of the recession narrative. No one can tell where we will fall and what new ghost stories will come out, but we might as well take this opportunity to deepen research and reflection. After all, few people do this when the wind goes smoothly.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/418c8e44b0e296045dbb80704fbfa531","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164195300","content_text":"01 近期的大跌在交易什么？纳斯达克100指数（QQQ）年初至今已回撤28%，陷入熊市水平。最近更是弱得很彻底，几次反弹都仅持续一天，比如上周二，上上周五。这都是在交易什么呢？答案很直观：衰退。去年底开始，美联储政策转向，以应对几十年来最高的通胀水平。在这个过程中又一路提升加息的幅度和预期，上个月有比较长一段时间市场甚至认为单次加息75个基点是比较大概率的事件。当然，这个说法基本被鲍威尔排除了，现在的加息预期是年底基准利率达到2.75%，这个数5月以来基本没有变过；到23年底基准利率预期为不到3%，上个月这个数基本在3.25%左右（反映明年加息2次）。这背后反映的是美联储“加息前置”的策略，加大加息幅度，以求迅速将通胀降下去，实现软着陆。但随着公司业绩及指引的发布，市场越来越担忧这次大概率得硬着陆了（衰退），只看衰退的幅度能控制在多少。这一点，从债市的走势也看得很明显——10年国债收益率2周时间从3.2%的高点跌至2.79%，跌幅达41个基点。02 巨头业绩1. 苹果营收和EPS双超预期：营业收入972.78亿，同比增长8.59%，预期939.8亿，超预期3.5%；EPS 1.52，同比增长8.57%，预期1.43美元，超预期6.3%。EPS超预期幅度显著大于营收，可以直观看出苹果的利润控制水平优秀（供应链管控，内部管理，投资etc.），另外背后也有苹果一直以来的强品牌心智和定价权。电话会议上CEO库克表示：无法在新冠肺炎疫情、供应链紊乱、俄乌战争期间独善其身。Q2收入可能因为这些影响同比减少40-80亿美元。也就是说苹果的业绩本身是不错的，但对于未来的预期偏悲观，更令人担忧的是，在衰退大概率成真的情况下，苹果的估值还是偏高——截止5月19日，苹果NTM PE 23x，20年3月低点约18x。18年由于经济周期和产品周期叠加影响（出的XS一代拉胯，华为高端崛起），估值杀得更低（低点12x）。现状是产品周期的影响比较小，但估值到20x也不过分（MR暂时指望不上，造车更悬），也就意味着15%左右的跌幅空间。2. 微软业绩就不多更新了，基本没有死角，突出老牌帝国的稳健。可以参考看看GS对于微软的模型以及目标价。截止5月19日，微软NTM PE 24.8x，20年3月低点23.3x，18年底21x左右。按20年3月低点对标，估值跌幅空间6%左右，已不太大。3. 谷歌营收in line，EPS miss：营收680.1亿，同比+23%，预期679.8亿；EPS24.62，同比-6.35%，预期25.71。净利润164.4亿，同比-8.3%，预期174亿。成本端（毛利率、三费率）正常，营销费用率环比有所提升，但是和去年同期基本一致。经营利润200.9亿，同比+22%；经营利润率30%，高于预期的28.8%，经营上问题不大（增速放缓在市场预期内）。净利润同比下降主要在其他收入/支出（证券投资）-11.6亿，去年同期+48.5亿。拆分业务来看，搜索广告同比+24.3%，但Youtube同比仅+14.4%（市场预期+23.2%）。Youtube增长大幅受挫的原因：Tiktok竞争、苹果隐私新政（广告精确度问题）、通胀、俄乌冲突外溢（主要为欧洲），其中前两个影响更为长期。NTMPE 18.5x，已是5年最低位，20年3月低点为约20x。从这个估值水平来看，进一步下杀的空间已经不大（就算当个传统行业来看，这个估值也不贵了）。当然，业内普遍有“不要在便宜的时候买科技股”的说法，这背后反映的是产品生命周期的问题，这个周期到的时候往往比经济周期更可怕。4. 亚马逊这个财报季业绩很差。营收1164.0亿美元，同比增长7.3%，预期1250亿美元。指引Q2营收1160亿-1210亿美元，低于市场预期的1255亿美元。按指引中值1185计，低于预期6%。EPS -7.56美元，预期+8.40美元。指引Q2运营利润在-10亿到30亿美元之间。各项成本基本小幅增长，通胀和供应链压力仍然不小：本月亚马逊首次向卖家征收5%服务费，并且上个财季将Prime价格从119美元提高至139美元。但经营利润率仍从去年同期8.2%下滑到3.2%。自由现金流：186亿美元净流出（过去12个月），去年同期264亿美元净流入。背后是大量投资履约基建，以及收购米高梅。注：Q1Rivian的股价下跌了约52%，令亚马逊所持市值减少76亿美元。亚马逊近几个季度FCF大幅下降（收购、投资等），估值没有太多可比性。不过考虑到消费互联网整体退潮（电商渗透率增长空间不大了），股价也似乎没有太多支撑或弹性。关于Meta和奈飞就不过多展开了，21Q4业绩的暴雷已明显反映出产品生命周期已到末端，这个位置虽然说估值也不贵，但很难让人想去捞底。特斯拉和英伟达都属于长久期，基本面短期逆风，但长期的增长前景仍然向好。03 商超财报暴雷：加剧滞胀/衰退担忧上周商超股连续暴雷。沃尔玛、塔吉特、罗斯百货，财报当天表现分别为-11%、-25%、-22%。对于历来稳健的必选消费板块来说，简直跌出了毁灭的感觉。原因其实都差不多，受通胀影响太重了。我们从沃尔玛来看——其实这季度沃尔玛营收问题不大（1415.7亿vs预期的1390.9亿），主要是EPS出了问题。- 超预期的供应链问题：油价和电商履约成本过高；- 产品组合转向日用杂货给毛利带来压力；- 一般性商品降价比预期多1亿美元；- 人工/管理成本上升。这也就意味着沃尔玛并没有将通胀的压力转嫁给消费者或上游供应商。从管理层的指引来看，今年EPS预期将同比-1%，也就是说沃尔玛会持续面临成本压力。04 小结这个季度的业绩和指引似乎都是滞胀和衰退前兆，但经济本身就是一个个周期，有繁荣就会有低谷，所以也不用过度悲观。目前我们处于衰退叙事的正中间段，谁也说不准会跌到哪，又会出什么新鬼故事，但不妨趁这个机会加深研究和反思，毕竟少有人在顺风顺水的时候做这个。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029511380,"gmtCreate":1652797619740,"gmtModify":1676535163590,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029511380","repostId":"1165989215","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029513963,"gmtCreate":1652797531552,"gmtModify":1676535163566,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029513963","repostId":"1105191089","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066312522,"gmtCreate":1651849466666,"gmtModify":1676534983758,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066312522","repostId":"1169210876","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169210876","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"1045836040","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1124f95a0404a8e98c2342c3c9c0de5"},"pubTimestamp":1651846587,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169210876?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-06 22:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Are 30,000 shareholders high? This A-share was once on the verge of delisting, but now it wants to \"pick the stars\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169210876","media":"中国基金报","summary":"昨晚多家ST股宣布退市，今晚（6日），一度濒临退市的*ST澄星发布公告称，将申请撤销股票退市风险警示及实施其他风险警示。6日盘间，一直在跌停板上趴着的*ST澄星在13：30分时，突然翘板，直线拉升，一","content":"<p><div>Last night, a number of ST stocks announced their delisting. Tonight (6th), * ST Chengxing, which was once on the verge of delisting, announced that it would apply to cancel the stock delisting risk warning and implement other risk warnings. During the 6th session, * ST Chengxing, which had been lying on the daily limit board, suddenly rocked up in a straight line at 13:30, and once touched the daily limit. At the last close, it was up 3.93%. After experiencing today's roller coaster-like market, the 36,000 shareholders of * ST Chengxing have ushered in this major benefit again, and this weekend will be happy. Once on the verge of delisting * ST Chengxing or \"picking the star\" After the market closed on the 6th, * ST Chengxing issued an announcement saying that,...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are 30,000 shareholders high? This A-share was once on the verge of delisting, but now it wants to \"pick the stars\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre 30,000 shareholders high? This A-share was once on the verge of delisting, but now it wants to \"pick the stars\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1045836040\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1124f95a0404a8e98c2342c3c9c0de5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-06 22:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Last night, a number of ST stocks announced their delisting. Tonight (6th), * ST Chengxing, which was once on the verge of delisting, announced that it would apply to cancel the stock delisting risk warning and implement other risk warnings. During the 6th session, * ST Chengxing, which had been lying on the daily limit board, suddenly rocked up in a straight line at 13:30, and once touched the daily limit. At the last close, it was up 3.93%. After experiencing today's roller coaster-like market, the 36,000 shareholders of * ST Chengxing have ushered in this major benefit again, and this weekend will be happy. Once on the verge of delisting * ST Chengxing or \"picking the star\" After the market closed on the 6th, * ST Chengxing issued an announcement saying that,...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"600078":"澄星股份"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169210876","content_text":"昨晚多家ST股宣布退市，今晚（6日），一度濒临退市的*ST澄星发布公告称，将申请撤销股票退市风险警示及实施其他风险警示。6日盘间，一直在跌停板上趴着的*ST澄星在13：30分时，突然翘板，直线拉升，一度触及涨停。最后收盘时，上涨3.93%。经历了今天过山车般的行情之后，*ST澄星的3.6万股民又迎来这一重大利好，这个周末要乐开花了。一度濒临退市*ST澄星或“摘星”6日盘后，*ST澄星发布公告称，公司已于5月4日收到上交所《关于江苏澄星磷化工股份有限公司2021年年度报告的信息披露监管问询函》。根据《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》(2022年1月修订)相关规定，上市公司申请撤销风险警示的，上交所可以要求上市公司提供补充材料，公司回复《问询函》期间不计入上交所作出相关决定的期限。公司将尽快落实回复，上交所将在公司回复相关公告后，视情况于10个交易日内决定是否撤销对公司股票实施的退市风险警示并实施其他风险警示。公司股票能否被撤销退市风险警示并实施其他风险警示，尚需上海证券交易所的审核确认，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。此前，4月19日，上交所对*ST 澄星发出问询函。问询函指出，2022 年 4 月 18 日，公司管理人发布公告，收到了债权人江苏资产管理有限公司（江苏资产）所支付的 22.56 亿元款项。该款项系根据和解协议，江苏资产为自身及代其他普通债权人支付的接收被澄星集团及其关联方非经营性占用资金而形成对澄星集团应收款债权的款项。结合前期公告，江阴法院已于 2022 年 3 月 15 日判决确认江苏资产自 2021 年 12 月 31 日起享有对澄星集团的应收款债权 22.39 亿元，公司不再享有该应收款债权。上交所请公司管理人结合江阴法院判决的有关内容，就前期上市公司应收 22.39 亿元款项，说明目前债务人是澄星集团还是江苏资产；本次归还的 22.56 亿元，是否为江苏资产偿还其对上市公司的债务；基于上述问题，明确该款项支付是否不可撤销。一年涨停近70次还被称为“虎年最强妖股”说到*ST 澄星，暂且不表他与控股股东之间的狗血剧情，导致公司濒临退市。单单看看他的股价表现，就让不少A股的股民目瞪口呆。据统计，2021年年内，截至12月16日，公司涨停次数已达到69次之多。2021年12月17日，开盘涨停之后就快速下挫，一度跌停，此后股价变跌跌不休。跌了快2个月，*ST 澄星春节之后，再度迎来了大反转。自2022年2月8日起至2月24日收盘，19个交易日里，*ST澄星累计11个交易日涨停，实现六个连板，股价从每股5.7元到9.7元，期间累计涨幅达70.18%。被称为“虎年最强妖股”。2月7日，上交所对*ST澄星股价异动发出问询函，要求公司结合对恶意炒作，监事、高级管理人员和相关方的股票交易等情况予以说明。2月24日晚间，*ST澄星发布公告称，因公司股票交易异常波动，停牌核查。复牌之后，*ST澄星股价短暂回调之后，再度上涨。截至6日收盘，*ST澄星股价已经较春节前已经翻倍。年报曾被出具“无法表示意见”江苏澄星成立于1994年，1997年在上交所上市，主营业务为精细磷化工产品，拥有全国最大的黄磷产能，一度被认为是A股磷矿的“龙头”。其营业收入从2001年的5.86亿元一路增长至2020年的31.37亿元。然而，2020年江苏澄星的净利润却出现了巨亏，亏损达22.7亿元。因2020年内部控制审计报告被苏亚金诚会计师事务所（普通合伙人）出具了否定意见，以及受控股股东及其关联方资金占用未能解决的影响，江苏澄星股票被实施其他风险警示；因江苏澄星2020年度经审计的期末净资产为负值，且2020年财务会计报告被苏亚金诚会计师事务所出具了无法表示意见，江苏澄星股票被实施退市警示风险，其股票代码也正式由澄星股份变成ST澄星。根据上交所相关规定，若公司2021年年报触及退市相关指标任意情形，公司股票将被终止上市。2021年1月29日，江苏澄星发布业绩预告称，预计2021年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为13.1亿元至19.49亿元。原因是，公司于2021年12月31日收到江苏资产管理有限公司出具的《债权人说明》。江苏资产管理有限公司同意在2022年4月30日前联动江苏澄星全体债权人对澄星集团（江苏澄星第一大股东）及其相关方的应收款约22亿元全额变现或接受江苏澄星以其对澄星集团及其相关方的应收款约22亿元等额替代现金对债权人持有的债权进行清偿。江苏澄星管理层认为，此函履约的可能性非常大，因此按区间中值72.50%对上一年度全额计提的澄星集团及其相关方非经营性占用公司资金本息合计21.78亿元进行了冲回。但*ST澄星会计师出具专项说明表示，根据企业会计准则的规定，江苏澄星凭借《债权人说明》将2021年计提的应收澄星集团及其相关方款项的坏账准备中72.50%的份额予以转回并导致净资产转正，依据不充分。*ST澄星此后多次收到上交所的《问询函》，要求其就依据《债权人说明》导致净资产转正事项进行说明。一边是业绩爆雷，一边是*ST澄星自身面临多起诉讼。根据最新公告，截至目前，公司累计涉案金额为24亿元，其中重大诉讼（仲裁）金额为22亿元。公司及子公司共有34个银行账户冻结，冻结金额为984万元。2021年11月9日，债权人江阴市建筑装璜制品厂以公司不能清偿到期债务为由向法院申请对其破产重整。根据上交所相关规定，如果被宣告破产，公司股票将被终止上市。2022年1月7日江苏澄星申请和解，并与主要债权人等利害关系人进行商业谈判、制作了和解协议草案。2022年3月15日，江苏澄星收到无锡中院的《民事裁定书》和《决定书》，裁定受理了公司的和解申请并同意江阴市建筑装璜制品厂撤回对江苏澄星的重整申请，同时指定江苏谋盛律师事务所、江苏居和信律师事务所联合担任江苏澄星的管理人。值得注意的是，1月份申请和解，3月份提交草案，江苏澄星直至法院裁定和解后才于3月16日正式对外披露申请和解事项。而在此期间，江苏澄星的股价多次涨停。4月30日，*ST澄星正式发布2021年年报，并发布会计师事务所的审计报告。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600078":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060224538,"gmtCreate":1651156692284,"gmtModify":1676534860606,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060224538","repostId":"1159795060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159795060","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651154063,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159795060?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 21:54","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Teladoc Health suspended intraday trading, shares fell more than 44% before suspension","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159795060","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月28日，Teladoc Health盘中停牌，停牌前股价跌逾44%，报31.23美元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 28,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">Teladoc Health</a>Trading was suspended during the session, and the stock price fell more than 44% to $31.23 before the suspension.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f19b2d605f93b3dcd8ea03bc008db23\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Teladoc Health suspended intraday trading, shares fell more than 44% before suspension</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ 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.h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTeladoc Health suspended intraday trading, shares fell more than 44% before suspension\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-28 21:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 28,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">Teladoc Health</a>Trading was suspended during the session, and the stock price fell more than 44% to $31.23 before the suspension.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f19b2d605f93b3dcd8ea03bc008db23\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BK4567":"ESG概念","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4167":"医疗保健技术","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159795060","content_text":"4月28日，Teladoc Health盘中停牌，停牌前股价跌逾44%，报31.23美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TDOC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060224190,"gmtCreate":1651156619442,"gmtModify":1676534860590,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060224190","repostId":"1123914915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060015261,"gmtCreate":1651069863425,"gmtModify":1676534844175,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060015261","repostId":"1157700690","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060012797,"gmtCreate":1651069779857,"gmtModify":1676534844167,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":", 👍👍👍","listText":", 👍👍👍","text":", 👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060012797","repostId":"1134208112","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134208112","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651066969,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134208112?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-27 21:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Boeing Stock Hits New 52-Week Low as Losses Extend to Nearly 8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134208112","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月27日，波音跌幅扩大至近8%，股价刷新52周新低。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 27th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>The decline extended to nearly 8%, and the stock hit a new 52-week low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b70074c854522ae79322c2d173bc3ee\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing Stock Hits New 52-Week Low as Losses Extend to Nearly 8%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing Stock Hits New 52-Week Low as Losses Extend to Nearly 8%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-27 21:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 27th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>The decline extended to nearly 8%, and the stock hit a new 52-week low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b70074c854522ae79322c2d173bc3ee\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e31336d6af672b08c5ae7ff8b4ec12","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BA":"波音","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4564":"太空概念","BK4187":"航天航空与国防"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134208112","content_text":"4月27日，波音跌幅扩大至近8%，股价刷新52周新低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085959961,"gmtCreate":1650637018651,"gmtModify":1676534768254,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085959961","repostId":"1189476229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085950655,"gmtCreate":1650636967332,"gmtModify":1676534768269,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085950655","repostId":"1183430436","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183430436","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650630501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183430436?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-22 20:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | Most Chinese concept stocks rose, JD.com rose nearly 4% supported by positive news","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183430436","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股三大指数期货窄幅波动，纳指期货小幅上涨。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 22 (Friday), the three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated within a narrow range, and the Nasdaq futures rose slightly. The U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields strengthened again, and the benchmark U.S. bond yield, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield, tested the 3% level after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that he would rate hike 50 basis points at the May meeting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc995df34478a0dccb80ad982db3b7b8\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Pre-market trend of Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 4%. On the news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It was announced on Thursday that the company's board of directors is considering declaring and paying a special Dividend in cash, and the Dividend is expected to be declared by a board resolution on or about May 4, 2022 (Hong Kong time).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 0.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">Best Group</a>Up 0.24%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up 1.18%. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has added companies such as Li Auto, Best Group and Keike to the pre-delisting list. This is the fifth batch of Chinese concept stock companies to be included in the list since March.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DQ\">Daqo New Energy</a>Up 3%. The company's revenue in the first quarter was US $1.280.3 billion, compared with US $256.1 million in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 400%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today, closing down more than 23% on the first day, and the market value of the Hong Kong stock market was 7.988 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><b>Important pre-market trends of US stocks</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>Up more than 2%, the company's first-quarter profit and revenue exceeded expectations, and the company increased its Dividend by 40%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gaipu</a>It fell nearly 16% after announcing that Nancy Green, CEO of sub-brand Old Navy, will leave this weekend and expects first-quarter sales to fall more than originally expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d523153c34734fbe0f18608ba4b0452\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAP\">SAP SE</a>Falling more than 3%, the company's adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in the first quarter was 1.677 billion euros, compared with market expectations of 1.740 billion euros.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Falling more than 1%, the company's revenue in the first quarter was US $11.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%; Net profit was US $2.1 billion, compared with expectations of US $1.9 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">Verizon</a>Falling more than 2%, the company's first-quarter net profit and earnings per share miss the market expectation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALV\">Autoliv</a>Falling more than 6%, the company's revenue in the first quarter was US $2.12 billion, lower than market expectations of US $2.17 billion.</p><p><b>Commodity Trends</b></p><p>International oil prices fell. Expectations of accelerating interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and weak global growth outlook hurt demand. However, OPEC reiterated its position to the IMF that it will not accelerate production increases, the EU may continue to tighten restrictions on Russian oil, and global supply may be further tightened.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc7c8fe7c7217deb7da80b237f60dd\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"871\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>International gold prices fell. The US Dollar Index continued to remain strong and Fed officials took a hawkish stance on tightening monetary policy, cementing expectations that it would aggressively rate hike to combat surging inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ca79463873e53cc20d623eebde1b04\" tg-width=\"1389\" tg-height=\"876\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | Most Chinese concept stocks rose, JD.com rose nearly 4% supported by positive news</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | Most Chinese concept stocks rose, JD.com rose nearly 4% supported by positive news\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-22 20:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 22 (Friday), the three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated within a narrow range, and the Nasdaq futures rose slightly. The U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields strengthened again, and the benchmark U.S. bond yield, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield, tested the 3% level after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that he would rate hike 50 basis points at the May meeting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc995df34478a0dccb80ad982db3b7b8\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Pre-market trend of Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 4%. On the news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It was announced on Thursday that the company's board of directors is considering declaring and paying a special Dividend in cash, and the Dividend is expected to be declared by a board resolution on or about May 4, 2022 (Hong Kong time).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 0.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">Best Group</a>Up 0.24%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up 1.18%. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has added companies such as Li Auto, Best Group and Keike to the pre-delisting list. This is the fifth batch of Chinese concept stock companies to be included in the list since March.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DQ\">Daqo New Energy</a>Up 3%. The company's revenue in the first quarter was US $1.280.3 billion, compared with US $256.1 million in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 400%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today, closing down more than 23% on the first day, and the market value of the Hong Kong stock market was 7.988 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><b>Important pre-market trends of US stocks</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>Up more than 2%, the company's first-quarter profit and revenue exceeded expectations, and the company increased its Dividend by 40%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gaipu</a>It fell nearly 16% after announcing that Nancy Green, CEO of sub-brand Old Navy, will leave this weekend and expects first-quarter sales to fall more than originally expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d523153c34734fbe0f18608ba4b0452\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAP\">SAP SE</a>Falling more than 3%, the company's adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in the first quarter was 1.677 billion euros, compared with market expectations of 1.740 billion euros.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Falling more than 1%, the company's revenue in the first quarter was US $11.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%; Net profit was US $2.1 billion, compared with expectations of US $1.9 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">Verizon</a>Falling more than 2%, the company's first-quarter net profit and earnings per share miss the market expectation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALV\">Autoliv</a>Falling more than 6%, the company's revenue in the first quarter was US $2.12 billion, lower than market expectations of US $2.17 billion.</p><p><b>Commodity Trends</b></p><p>International oil prices fell. Expectations of accelerating interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and weak global growth outlook hurt demand. However, OPEC reiterated its position to the IMF that it will not accelerate production increases, the EU may continue to tighten restrictions on Russian oil, and global supply may be further tightened.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37bc7c8fe7c7217deb7da80b237f60dd\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"871\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>International gold prices fell. The US Dollar Index continued to remain strong and Fed officials took a hawkish stance on tightening monetary policy, cementing expectations that it would aggressively rate hike to combat surging inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ca79463873e53cc20d623eebde1b04\" tg-width=\"1389\" tg-height=\"876\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183430436","content_text":"4月22日（周五），美股三大指数期货窄幅波动，纳指期货小幅上涨。美元、美债收益率再度走强，美债基准收益率美国10年期国债收益率测试3%的水平，此前美联储主席鲍威尔确认将在5月会议上加息50个基点。中概股盘前走势京东涨近4%。消息面上，京东周四宣布，公司董事会正在考虑宣布和支付现金特别股息，预计将于2022年5月4日（香港时间）左右通过董事会决议宣布股息。理想汽车涨0.7%，百世集团涨0.24%，贝壳涨1.18%。美国证劵交易委员会（SEC）将理想汽车、百世集团和贝壳等公司加入预摘牌名单，这是自3月以来第五批被纳入名单的中概股公司。大全新能源涨3%。该公司一季度营收12.803亿美元，上年同期2.561亿美元，同比涨幅达400%。拼多多、阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩涨2%。知乎跌超3%，知乎今日正式登陆港交所，首日收盘跌超23%，港股市值79.88亿港元。重要美股盘前走势斯伦贝谢涨超2%，公司第一季度利润和收入超出预期，公司将股息增加40%。盖璞大跌近16%，此前宣布子品牌Old Navy的CEO南希·格林将于本周末离职，并预计第一季度销售下降幅度将超过最初的预期。SAP SE跌超3%，公司一季度调整后息税前利润（EBIT）为16.77亿欧元，市场预期为17.40亿欧元。美国运通跌超1%，公司一季度营收117亿美元，同比增长29%；净利润21亿美元，预期19亿美元。威瑞森跌超2%，公司一季度净利及每股收益不及市场预期。奥托立夫跌超6%，公司一季度营收21.2亿美元，低于21.7亿美元的市场预期。大宗商品走势国际油价回落。美联储加速升息预期和全球增长前景疲软损害需求。但OPEC向IMF重申立场——不会加速增产，欧盟可能继续收紧对俄罗斯石油的限制，全球供给或进一步紧张。国际金价下跌。美元指数继续保持强势，美联储官员对收紧货币政策采取强硬态度，巩固了其将大举加息来应对通胀飙升的预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017651158,"gmtCreate":1649773643497,"gmtModify":1676534571763,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017651158","repostId":"1105190495","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017660958,"gmtCreate":1649772418577,"gmtModify":1676534571201,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017660958","repostId":"1136448500","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136448500","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649770740,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136448500?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-12 21:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Interpretation of U.S. CPI data in March: Housing and energy prices are the main drivers of inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136448500","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"4月12日周二，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国3月CPI同比增8.5%，增速再次加快，为1981年12月来的最快增速，高于市场的预期8.4%，也超前值的7.9%。CPI同比增速连续十一个月达到或高于","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, April 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. CPI increased by 8.5% year-on-year in March, and the growth rate accelerated again.<b>The fastest growth rate since December 1981</b>, higher than market expectations of 8.4%, and also ahead of the expected value of 7.9%. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI has reached or exceeded 5% for eleven consecutive months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302216ecd7571b4ad526fd1215c3ee7\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The month-on-month increase of CPI in March continued to expand, increasing by 1.2%, higher than the previous value of 0.8%.<b>The 1.2% month-on-month increase was the biggest since September 2005</b>。</p><p>Even excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 6.5% in March from a year earlier, up from 6.4% in February,<b>It was the fastest increase since August 1982.</b></p><p><b>This is the 22nd consecutive month of CPI gains, with commodity inflation actually declining month-on-month, while energy prices have soared.</b></p><p><b>Housing and energy prices are major inflation boosters</b></p><p>According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the biggest factors driving inflation are food, housing costs and gasoline. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has also caused energy prices to soar.</p><p><b>The index tracking gasoline prices surged 18.3% month-on-month in March, accounting for more than half of the total monthly increase in the CPI, the largest increase since 2009. Energy prices rose 11% month-on-month in March, the biggest increase since 2005.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d77ecc2d6b3fb74c944b5189e01dafd7\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The housing index is by far the biggest factor driving inflation growth.</b>Housing inflation rose 5.0% year-on-year in March, up from 4.7% in February,<b>The highest level since May 1991</b>； Rental costs in March increased by 4.44% year-on-year, higher than 4.17% in February.<b>It is the highest level since May 2007.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb65ddb5326d79f1b64f16a2cb9283d0\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In contrast,<b>The used car and truck price index fell 3.8% in March, the second consecutive month of decline.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8ba274cf4e17afef253fd42d583b38\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Factors such as airfare, household furniture, health care and motor vehicle insurance also helped.</p><p>U.S. service costs rose 5.1% from a year earlier, the largest increase since 1991.<b>Airline fares rose 10.7% in March from the previous month, a record high.</b>After sharp increases in recent months, the price of household goods is up 1% from February, and the price index of furniture is up 10.1% from the same period last year,<b>It is the highest level since 1975.</b></p><p>According to a Bloomberg survey,<b>After the Federal Reserve's March meeting, inflation expectations began to decline, and the market expected the U.S. CPI to increase by 7.6% and 5.7% year-on-year in the remaining two quarters of this year, respectively. According to at least 6 Wall Street banks, this is the pinnacle of the inflationary wave.</b></p><p>But for the average American,<b>Real average hourly earnings declined for the 12th consecutive month.</b>This also confirms a recent NBC poll,<b>Sixty-two percent of Americans say their income can't keep up with the rising cost of living.</b></p><p>Fed pressure doubles</p><p>The huge gains also strengthened expectations that the Fed will issue a 50 basis point rate hike next month.</p><p>Although the Fed is adopting more hawkish policies, inflation is unlikely to fall back to the Fed's 2% target level anytime soon. Especially considering the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis and the increasing demand for services such as tourism.</p><p>At the same time,<b>The risk of inflation dragging the economy into recession is accumulating.</b>More economists are unanimously predicting that economic activity will shrink either because consumer spending falls due to higher prices or because the Fed is \"overkill\" in its fight against inflation.</p><p><b>The market expects U.S. inflation to remain around 6% by the end of this year, which will put pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials. The Fed is expected to issue a 50 basis point rate hike at its next policy meeting in May, and may hold one or more meetings afterwards, while moving forward with plans to reduce its balance sheet.</b></p><p>Biden is also being criticized for failing to control prices, as Americans pay for gasoline and various groceries. The White House ordered the release of the largest ever oil reserve last month to help lower oil prices, but the average price of gasoline nationwide in the United States is still above $4 a gallon.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Interpretation of U.S. CPI data in March: Housing and energy prices are the main drivers of inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInterpretation of U.S. CPI data in March: Housing and energy prices are the main drivers of inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-12 21:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, April 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. CPI increased by 8.5% year-on-year in March, and the growth rate accelerated again.<b>The fastest growth rate since December 1981</b>, higher than market expectations of 8.4%, and also ahead of the expected value of 7.9%. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI has reached or exceeded 5% for eleven consecutive months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302216ecd7571b4ad526fd1215c3ee7\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The month-on-month increase of CPI in March continued to expand, increasing by 1.2%, higher than the previous value of 0.8%.<b>The 1.2% month-on-month increase was the biggest since September 2005</b>。</p><p>Even excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 6.5% in March from a year earlier, up from 6.4% in February,<b>It was the fastest increase since August 1982.</b></p><p><b>This is the 22nd consecutive month of CPI gains, with commodity inflation actually declining month-on-month, while energy prices have soared.</b></p><p><b>Housing and energy prices are major inflation boosters</b></p><p>According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the biggest factors driving inflation are food, housing costs and gasoline. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has also caused energy prices to soar.</p><p><b>The index tracking gasoline prices surged 18.3% month-on-month in March, accounting for more than half of the total monthly increase in the CPI, the largest increase since 2009. Energy prices rose 11% month-on-month in March, the biggest increase since 2005.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d77ecc2d6b3fb74c944b5189e01dafd7\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The housing index is by far the biggest factor driving inflation growth.</b>Housing inflation rose 5.0% year-on-year in March, up from 4.7% in February,<b>The highest level since May 1991</b>； Rental costs in March increased by 4.44% year-on-year, higher than 4.17% in February.<b>It is the highest level since May 2007.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb65ddb5326d79f1b64f16a2cb9283d0\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In contrast,<b>The used car and truck price index fell 3.8% in March, the second consecutive month of decline.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8ba274cf4e17afef253fd42d583b38\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Factors such as airfare, household furniture, health care and motor vehicle insurance also helped.</p><p>U.S. service costs rose 5.1% from a year earlier, the largest increase since 1991.<b>Airline fares rose 10.7% in March from the previous month, a record high.</b>After sharp increases in recent months, the price of household goods is up 1% from February, and the price index of furniture is up 10.1% from the same period last year,<b>It is the highest level since 1975.</b></p><p>According to a Bloomberg survey,<b>After the Federal Reserve's March meeting, inflation expectations began to decline, and the market expected the U.S. CPI to increase by 7.6% and 5.7% year-on-year in the remaining two quarters of this year, respectively. According to at least 6 Wall Street banks, this is the pinnacle of the inflationary wave.</b></p><p>But for the average American,<b>Real average hourly earnings declined for the 12th consecutive month.</b>This also confirms a recent NBC poll,<b>Sixty-two percent of Americans say their income can't keep up with the rising cost of living.</b></p><p>Fed pressure doubles</p><p>The huge gains also strengthened expectations that the Fed will issue a 50 basis point rate hike next month.</p><p>Although the Fed is adopting more hawkish policies, inflation is unlikely to fall back to the Fed's 2% target level anytime soon. Especially considering the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis and the increasing demand for services such as tourism.</p><p>At the same time,<b>The risk of inflation dragging the economy into recession is accumulating.</b>More economists are unanimously predicting that economic activity will shrink either because consumer spending falls due to higher prices or because the Fed is \"overkill\" in its fight against inflation.</p><p><b>The market expects U.S. inflation to remain around 6% by the end of this year, which will put pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials. The Fed is expected to issue a 50 basis point rate hike at its next policy meeting in May, and may hold one or more meetings afterwards, while moving forward with plans to reduce its balance sheet.</b></p><p>Biden is also being criticized for failing to control prices, as Americans pay for gasoline and various groceries. The White House ordered the release of the largest ever oil reserve last month to help lower oil prices, but the average price of gasoline nationwide in the United States is still above $4 a gallon.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656729\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df74a3173019df9d7cecb61fc0d78eea","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656729","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1136448500","content_text":"4月12日周二，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国3月CPI同比增8.5%，增速再次加快，为1981年12月来的最快增速，高于市场的预期8.4%，也超前值的7.9%。CPI同比增速连续十一个月达到或高于5%。3月CPI环比涨幅继续扩大，增长1.2%，高于前值0.8%，1.2%的环比涨幅是自2005年9月以来的最大涨幅。即使剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格，3月份核心CPI较去年同期上涨了6.5%，涨幅高于2月份的6.4%，是自1982年8月以来的最快涨幅。这已经是CPI连续第22个月上涨，商品通胀实际上环比下降，而能源价格飙升。住房和能源价格是通胀的主要助推因素美国劳工统计局称，助推通胀上升的最大因素是食品、住房成本和汽油。俄乌危机也导致能源价格飙升。追踪汽油价格的指数在3月份环比飙升18.3%，占CPI月度总涨幅的一半以上，为2009年以来最大涨幅。3月份能源价格环比上涨11%，为2005年以来最大涨幅。住房指数是迄今为止助推通胀增长的最大因素。3月住房通胀同比增长5.0%，高于2月的4.7%，为1991年5月以来的最高水平；3月租金成本同比增长4.44%，高于2月的4.17%，为2007年5月以来的最高水平。相比之下，二手车和卡车价格指数在3月下跌3.8%，为连续第二个月下降。机票、家庭家具、医疗保健和机动车辆保险等因素也有助力。美国服务成本较去年同期增长5.1%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。3月份航空公司票价较上月上涨10.7%，创历史新高。在近几个月大幅上涨之后，家居用品的价格较2月份上涨了1%，家具价格指数较去年同期增长10.1%，为1975年以来的最高水平。根据彭博的一项调查，在美联储3月的会议之后，通胀预期开始下降，市场预计美国今年剩余两个季度的CPI同比涨幅分别为7.6%和5.7%。根据至少 6家华尔街银行的说法，这是通胀浪潮的顶峰。但对于普通美国人来说，实际平均时薪连续第12个月下降。这也证实了NBC最近的民意调查，62%的美国人表示他们的收入无法跟上不断上涨的生活成本。美联储压力倍增巨大涨幅也增强了美联储将在下个月加息50个基点的预期。尽管美联储正在采取更鹰派的政策，但通胀不太可能在短期内回落到美联储2%的目标水平。尤其是考虑到俄乌危机持续，以及对旅游等服务的需求增加。与此同时，通胀将经济拖入衰退的风险正在累积。越来越多的经济学家一致预测，经济活动将出现萎缩，要么是因为消费者支出因价格上涨而下降，要么是因为美联储在应对通胀时“矫枉过正”。市场预计今年年底美国通胀率仍将维持在6%左右，这将给美联储主席鲍威尔和其他官员们带来压力。预计美联储将在5月的下次政策会议上一次加息50个基点，之后可能还会举行一次或多次会议，同时推进缩减资产负债表的计划。拜登也正因未能控制住物价而受到批评，因为美国民众要为汽油和各种杂货买单。白宫上个月下令释放有史以来最大的石油储备，以帮助降低油价，但美国全国范围内的平均汽油价格仍在每加仑4美元以上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014406846,"gmtCreate":1649690014916,"gmtModify":1676534551917,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014406846","repostId":"2226687870","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2226687870","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649689202,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2226687870?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-11 23:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Markets Are Forming a Consensus: The Risk of U.S. Recession Is Growing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2226687870","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"经济学家们认为，随着美国经济持续过热，通胀率不断攀升，美联储可能会采取更严厉的应对措施，美国经济衰退的风险越来越大。《华尔街日报》本月对65位商业、学术和金融预测人士展开访问调查，受访的经济学家认为，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists believe that as the U.S. economy continues to overheat and the inflation rate continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may take tougher response measures, and the risk of a U.S. economic recession is increasing.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal surveyed 65 business, academic and financial forecasters this month. Economists interviewed said,<b>The probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession in the next 12 months is 28%, up from 18% in January and 13% a year ago.</b></p><p>Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, noted:</p><p>As the Federal Reserve gradually raises interest rates to combat high inflation, a series of supply shocks are also ensuing, and the risk of a U.S. recession continues to rise.<h2>Catch-up rate hike may trigger recession</h2>The survey shows that economists have slashed their economic growth forecasts for this year. On average, it expects inflation-adjusted GDP to grow 2.6% year-on-year for the full year of 2022, down 1% from its forecast six months ago.</p><p>The U.S. CPI rose 7.9% year-on-year in February. High inflation rates have increased the risk of economic downturn. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is actively taking actions to try to cool inflation without leading to reduced spending and higher unemployment.</p><p>The latest recession probability is slightly lower than the peak of 34.8% in September 2019, when economic growth slowed due to the Fed's rate hike the previous year, and in the previous month, the Fed initiated its first rate cut since 2008.</p><p>Furthermore, the probability of a recession predicted by economists reached the same level in August 2007, after which the recession did come. But when it reached a similar level in August 2011, the economy continued to grow.</p><p>Last month, the Federal Reserve opened a rate hike cycle, raising interest rates by 25 basis points, and expects to raise interest rates six more times before the end of the year, the most aggressive pace in nearly 15 years.<b>About 84% of economists surveyed expect the Fed to issue a 50 basis point rate hike in early May, and more than 57% expect to see multiple 50 basis point rate hike before the end of the year.</b></p><p><b>The median economist forecast shows that the Fed will adjust interest rates to 2.125% by the end of 2022 and then to 2.875% by the end of next year.</b></p><p>In addition to the catch-up rate hike, economists expect inflation to remain elevated, with inflation expected to average 7.5% in June 2022 and fall to 5.5% by December. Respondents estimate that inflation will fall back to 2.9% by the end of 2023, not far from the Fed's 2% target.</p><p>High inflation is a major risk to economic growth, weakening spending power and consumer confidence, and prompting the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. Economists are divided on what is pushing inflation up. One-third mentioned commodity, food and natural gas prices, while 15% believed it was the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>AC Cutts & Associates LLC economist Amy Crews Cutts expects higher and longer-lasting inflation, mainly driven by commodity prices, further fueled by the conflict in Ukraine.</p><p>Cutts is more pessimistic, believing that:</p><p>While monetary policy has little impact on commodity prices, higher levels of headline inflation have forced the Federal Reserve to act, and it is politically impossible not to fight it. And the Fed's actions to curb inflation will soon lead to a recession,<b>There is a 70% chance of a recession in the next 12 months.</b><h2>Wage growth may become the biggest inflation threat</h2><b>27% of respondents cited wage growth or a tight labor market as the biggest inflationary threat.</b></p><p>Rabobank senior strategist Philip Marey said:</p><p>The Ukraine crisis will boost inflation again in the short term, and the wage-price spiral that has begun will pose a more persistent threat to inflation. In this spiral, workers are paid higher wages to cover rising prices, and higher wages prompt businesses to raise prices even further.<b>Since the US is already in an upward spiral channel, the Fed will have to raise interest rates and thus break the inflationary spiral, which is enough to trigger a recession.</b>Robert Fry, an analyst at Robert Fry Economics LLC, sees only a 15% chance of an economic contraction over the next 12 months,<b>But over the next two years, the odds are well over 50%, with a three-quarter recession now expected to begin in the final quarter of 2023.</b></p><p>Robert Fry Stated that:</p><p><b>The key problem lies in the excess demand resulting from last year's fiscal and monetary policies, and the longer it takes for inflation to be brought under control, the worse the recession will be.</b>While a consensus is emerging that the risk of a recession is rising, most economists (63%) still believe that the Fed can control inflation and achieve a \"soft landing\" without triggering a recession. Many economists say the U.S. economy is well positioned to withstand monetary tightening given near-record unemployment, steadily rising incomes and relatively low levels of consumer debt.</p><p>Leo Feler, a senior economist at the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, believes that there is still a lot of pent-up demand and momentum.<b>Higher interest rates are likely to reduce economic growth from 4-5% to around 2-3% this year, and economic growth will slow significantly, but a recession seems unlikely.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Markets Are Forming a Consensus: The Risk of U.S. Recession Is Growing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarkets Are Forming a Consensus: The Risk of U.S. Recession Is Growing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-11 23:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists believe that as the U.S. economy continues to overheat and the inflation rate continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may take tougher response measures, and the risk of a U.S. economic recession is increasing.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal surveyed 65 business, academic and financial forecasters this month. Economists interviewed said,<b>The probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession in the next 12 months is 28%, up from 18% in January and 13% a year ago.</b></p><p>Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, noted:</p><p>As the Federal Reserve gradually raises interest rates to combat high inflation, a series of supply shocks are also ensuing, and the risk of a U.S. recession continues to rise.<h2>Catch-up rate hike may trigger recession</h2>The survey shows that economists have slashed their economic growth forecasts for this year. On average, it expects inflation-adjusted GDP to grow 2.6% year-on-year for the full year of 2022, down 1% from its forecast six months ago.</p><p>The U.S. CPI rose 7.9% year-on-year in February. High inflation rates have increased the risk of economic downturn. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is actively taking actions to try to cool inflation without leading to reduced spending and higher unemployment.</p><p>The latest recession probability is slightly lower than the peak of 34.8% in September 2019, when economic growth slowed due to the Fed's rate hike the previous year, and in the previous month, the Fed initiated its first rate cut since 2008.</p><p>Furthermore, the probability of a recession predicted by economists reached the same level in August 2007, after which the recession did come. But when it reached a similar level in August 2011, the economy continued to grow.</p><p>Last month, the Federal Reserve opened a rate hike cycle, raising interest rates by 25 basis points, and expects to raise interest rates six more times before the end of the year, the most aggressive pace in nearly 15 years.<b>About 84% of economists surveyed expect the Fed to issue a 50 basis point rate hike in early May, and more than 57% expect to see multiple 50 basis point rate hike before the end of the year.</b></p><p><b>The median economist forecast shows that the Fed will adjust interest rates to 2.125% by the end of 2022 and then to 2.875% by the end of next year.</b></p><p>In addition to the catch-up rate hike, economists expect inflation to remain elevated, with inflation expected to average 7.5% in June 2022 and fall to 5.5% by December. Respondents estimate that inflation will fall back to 2.9% by the end of 2023, not far from the Fed's 2% target.</p><p>High inflation is a major risk to economic growth, weakening spending power and consumer confidence, and prompting the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. Economists are divided on what is pushing inflation up. One-third mentioned commodity, food and natural gas prices, while 15% believed it was the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>AC Cutts & Associates LLC economist Amy Crews Cutts expects higher and longer-lasting inflation, mainly driven by commodity prices, further fueled by the conflict in Ukraine.</p><p>Cutts is more pessimistic, believing that:</p><p>While monetary policy has little impact on commodity prices, higher levels of headline inflation have forced the Federal Reserve to act, and it is politically impossible not to fight it. And the Fed's actions to curb inflation will soon lead to a recession,<b>There is a 70% chance of a recession in the next 12 months.</b><h2>Wage growth may become the biggest inflation threat</h2><b>27% of respondents cited wage growth or a tight labor market as the biggest inflationary threat.</b></p><p>Rabobank senior strategist Philip Marey said:</p><p>The Ukraine crisis will boost inflation again in the short term, and the wage-price spiral that has begun will pose a more persistent threat to inflation. In this spiral, workers are paid higher wages to cover rising prices, and higher wages prompt businesses to raise prices even further.<b>Since the US is already in an upward spiral channel, the Fed will have to raise interest rates and thus break the inflationary spiral, which is enough to trigger a recession.</b>Robert Fry, an analyst at Robert Fry Economics LLC, sees only a 15% chance of an economic contraction over the next 12 months,<b>But over the next two years, the odds are well over 50%, with a three-quarter recession now expected to begin in the final quarter of 2023.</b></p><p>Robert Fry Stated that:</p><p><b>The key problem lies in the excess demand resulting from last year's fiscal and monetary policies, and the longer it takes for inflation to be brought under control, the worse the recession will be.</b>While a consensus is emerging that the risk of a recession is rising, most economists (63%) still believe that the Fed can control inflation and achieve a \"soft landing\" without triggering a recession. Many economists say the U.S. economy is well positioned to withstand monetary tightening given near-record unemployment, steadily rising incomes and relatively low levels of consumer debt.</p><p>Leo Feler, a senior economist at the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, believes that there is still a lot of pent-up demand and momentum.<b>Higher interest rates are likely to reduce economic growth from 4-5% to around 2-3% this year, and economic growth will slow significantly, but a recession seems unlikely.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656599\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656599","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2226687870","content_text":"经济学家们认为，随着美国经济持续过热，通胀率不断攀升，美联储可能会采取更严厉的应对措施，美国经济衰退的风险越来越大。《华尔街日报》本月对65位商业、学术和金融预测人士展开访问调查，受访的经济学家认为，未来12个月内美国经济陷入衰退的概率为28%，高于1月份的18%和一年前的13%。RSM US LLP首席经济学家Joe Brusuelas指出：随着美联储逐渐提高利率以应对高通胀，一系列供应冲击也正接踵而来，美国经济衰退的风险持续上升。追赶式加息或将引发衰退调查显示，经济学家大幅下调了对今年的经济增长预期。平均而言，其预计2022年全年经通胀调整后的GDP将同比增长2.6%，较半年前的预测值下调1%。美国2月CPI同比上升7.9%，高企的通胀率加大了经济下滑风险，另一方面美联储正积极采取行动，试图在不会导致支出减少和失业率上升的情况下为通胀降温。最新的衰退概率略低于2019年9月的峰值34.8%，当时由于美联储前一年的加息，经济增长放缓，并且在前一个月，美联储启动了自2008年以来的首次降息。此外，经济学家预测的衰退概率在2007年8月达到了同样的水平，之后衰退确实到来。但当2011年8月达到类似水平时，经济持续增长。上个月，美联储开启加息周期，将利率上调25个基点，并预计年底前将再上调六次利率，堪称近15年来最激进的步伐。约84%的受访经济学家预计，美联储将在5月初加息50个基点，超过57%的人预计年底前将看到了多次加息50个基点。经济学家预测中值显示，美联储将在2022年底前将利率调整至2.125%，然后在明年年底前调整至2.875%。除了追赶式加息外，经济学家还预计通胀率将保持在高位，预计2022年6月的平均通胀率为7.5%，到12月通胀率将降至5.5%。受访者估计，到2023年底通胀将回落至2.9%，与美联储2%的目标相差不远。高通胀是经济增长的主要风险，削弱了消费能力和消费者信心，并促使美联储收紧货币政策。经济学家们对推高通胀的因素意见不一。三分之一的人提到了商品、食品和天然气价格，15%的人则认为是俄乌冲突。AC Cutts & Associates LLC经济学家Amy Crews Cutts预计，通货膨胀将更高、更持久，主要驱动因素为大宗商品价格，乌克兰冲突进一步加剧了通胀。Cutts较为悲观，其认为：尽管货币政策对大宗商品价格几乎没有影响，但总体通胀水平走高迫使美联储采取行动，不与之抗争在政治上是不可能的。而美联储抑制通胀的行动将很快导致衰退，未来12个月经济衰退的可能性为70%。工资增长或成最大的通胀威胁27%的受访者认为工资增长或劳动力市场紧张是最大的通胀威胁。荷兰合作银行高级策略师Philip Marey说：乌克兰危机将在短期内再次提振通胀，已开始的工资-价格螺旋上升将对通胀构成了更持久的威胁。在这种螺旋式上升中，工人们获得了更高的工资，以支付不断上涨的物价，而更高的工资促使企业进一步提高价格。由于美国已经处于螺旋式上升通道，美联储将不得不提高利率，从而打破通胀螺旋，这足以引发经济衰退。Robert Fry Economics LLC分析师Robert Fry认为，未来12个月经济收缩的可能性仅为15%，但在未来两年内，这一可能性将远远超过50%，目前预计2023年最后一个季度将开始为期三个季度的衰退。Robert Fry指出：关键问题在于去年的财政和货币政策导致的需求过剩，而通胀得到控制所需的时间越长，衰退就越严重。尽管经济衰退的风险不断上升的共识正在形成，但大多数经济学家（63%）仍然认为，美联储能够在不引发衰退的情况下控制通胀，实现“软着陆”。许多经济学家表示，鉴于失业率接近历史新低、收入稳步上升以及消费者债务水平相对较低，美国经济完全有能力承受货币紧缩。加利福尼亚大学安德森管理学院高级经济学家Leo Feler认为，当前仍有许多被压抑的需求和动力。更高的利率可能会使今年的经济增长率从4-5%下降到2-3%左右，经济增长将显著放缓，但似乎不太可能出现衰退。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"TQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014408875,"gmtCreate":1649689943571,"gmtModify":1676534551894,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👏","listText":"👍👍👏","text":"👍👍👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014408875","repostId":"2226684954","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9015318570,"gmtCreate":1649426379235,"gmtModify":1676534510054,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015318570","repostId":"1119254166","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119254166","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649424613,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119254166?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-08 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | U.S. stocks opened with mixed gains and losses, Zhihu rose nearly 5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119254166","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月8日，美股开盘涨跌不一，道琼斯指数开盘上涨29.90点，涨幅0.09%，报34613.47点；标普500指数开盘下跌5.31点，跌幅0.12%，报4494.90点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌65.0","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 8, U.S. stocks opened mixed, with the Dow Jones Index opening up 29.90 points, or 0.09%, to 34,613.47 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 5.31 points, or 0.12%, to 4,494.90 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 65.01 points, or 0.47%, to 13,832.29 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c8a5530d15ef40ad6aba90cee0a0c87\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Up nearly 5%, the company passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>It fell more than 2% after the company received a notice from Nasdaq saying that it did not comply with the Nasdaq rules for continued listing.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | U.S. stocks opened with mixed gains and losses, Zhihu rose nearly 5%</title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | U.S. stocks opened with mixed gains and losses, Zhihu rose nearly 5%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-08 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 8, U.S. stocks opened mixed, with the Dow Jones Index opening up 29.90 points, or 0.09%, to 34,613.47 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 5.31 points, or 0.12%, to 4,494.90 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 65.01 points, or 0.47%, to 13,832.29 points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c8a5530d15ef40ad6aba90cee0a0c87\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Up nearly 5%, the company passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>It fell more than 2% after the company received a notice from Nasdaq saying that it did not comply with the Nasdaq rules for continued listing.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4539":"次新股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","ZH":"知乎",".DJI":"道琼斯","02390":"知乎-W",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119254166","content_text":"4月8日，美股开盘涨跌不一，道琼斯指数开盘上涨29.90点，涨幅0.09%，报34613.47点；标普500指数开盘下跌5.31点，跌幅0.12%，报4494.90点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌65.01点，跌幅0.47%，报13832.29点。知乎涨近5%，公司通过港交所上市聆讯。法拉第未来跌超2%，此前公司收到纳斯达克通知，称其不符合纳斯达克继续上市规则。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"FFIE":0.9,"ZH":0.9,"02390":0,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013215026,"gmtCreate":1648734468153,"gmtModify":1676534387943,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorIdStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"C👍👍👍","listText":"C👍👍👍","text":"C👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013215026","repostId":"1175916518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9085959961,"gmtCreate":1650637018651,"gmtModify":1676534768254,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085959961","repostId":"1189476229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032638188,"gmtCreate":1647351311364,"gmtModify":1676534219263,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032638188","repostId":"1156981216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037348288,"gmtCreate":1648042018911,"gmtModify":1676534295820,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037348288","repostId":"2221189017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034426621,"gmtCreate":1647951422354,"gmtModify":1676534283712,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034426621","repostId":"1113165823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097489656,"gmtCreate":1645531751513,"gmtModify":1676534036268,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097489656","repostId":"1130330145","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094555519,"gmtCr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10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on February 21 for Washington's birthday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157712278","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月21日（周一）是美国的华盛顿诞辰纪念日，美国包括股市和债市在内的金融市场将休市一天。2月22日（周二）美股恢复正常交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡照常开市。背景简介：华盛顿诞辰纪念日俗称总统日","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>February 21st (Monday) is the anniversary of Washington's birth in the United States, and financial markets in the United States, including the stock market and bond market, will be closed for one day. U.S. stocks resumed normal trading on February 22 (Tuesday).</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks, and Singapore opened as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p>Washington's birthday is commonly known as President's Day</p><p>In 1879, a bill passed by the United States Congress decided to make Washington's birthday a federal holiday for the first time. The Monday Holiday Act, which came into effect in 1968, moved the anniversary of Washington's birth from February 22nd every year to the third Monday in February. However, including this bill, there is no legal provision in the United States so far to officially change the name \"Washington's Birthday Anniversary\" to what is now better known as \"President's Day\". The situation among the people is different. More and more Americans have called the third Monday in February \"President's Day\".</p><p>George Washington profile:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One of the most common portraits of George Washington</p><p>Washington's full name is George Washington (February 22, 1732-December 14, 1799). He served as the commander-in-chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War from 1775 to 1783. In 1789, he became the first president of the United States (and also became the first head of state in the world with the title of \"President\"). In two successive presidential elections, he won the unanimous support of all electoral colleges, and served as president of the United States until 1797.</p><p>In 1787, he presided over the Constitutional Convention of the United States, which formulated the basic framework of the present American Constitution. During his two terms, he established many policies and traditions of the United States that continue to this day. After the end of two terms, he voluntarily gave up his power and did not renew his term, establishing the tradition that the president of the United States serves no more than two terms.</p><p>After that, Washington returned to civilian life and lived in seclusion at Mount Vernon Manor. Because he played the most important role in the American Revolution and the founding process, Washington is often called the founding father of the United States. Most American scholars generally rank him along with Abraham Lincoln as one of the greatest presidents in American history.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on February 21 for Washington's birthday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on February 21 for Washington's birthday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-17 10:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>February 21st (Monday) is the anniversary of Washington's birth in the United States, and financial markets in the United States, including the stock market and bond market, will be closed for one day. U.S. stocks resumed normal trading on February 22 (Tuesday).</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks, and Singapore opened as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p>Washington's birthday is commonly known as President's Day</p><p>In 1879, a bill passed by the United States Congress decided to make Washington's birthday a federal holiday for the first time. The Monday Holiday Act, which came into effect in 1968, moved the anniversary of Washington's birth from February 22nd every year to the third Monday in February. However, including this bill, there is no legal provision in the United States so far to officially change the name \"Washington's Birthday Anniversary\" to what is now better known as \"President's Day\". The situation among the people is different. More and more Americans have called the third Monday in February \"President's Day\".</p><p>George Washington profile:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One of the most common portraits of George Washington</p><p>Washington's full name is George Washington (February 22, 1732-December 14, 1799). He served as the commander-in-chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War from 1775 to 1783. In 1789, he became the first president of the United States (and also became the first head of state in the world with the title of \"President\"). In two successive presidential elections, he won the unanimous support of all electoral colleges, and served as president of the United States until 1797.</p><p>In 1787, he presided over the Constitutional Convention of the United States, which formulated the basic framework of the present American Constitution. During his two terms, he established many policies and traditions of the United States that continue to this day. After the end of two terms, he voluntarily gave up his power and did not renew his term, establishing the tradition that the president of the United States serves no more than two terms.</p><p>After that, Washington returned to civilian life and lived in seclusion at Mount Vernon Manor. Because he played the most important role in the American Revolution and the founding process, Washington is often called the founding father of the United States. Most American scholars generally rank him along with Abraham Lincoln as one of the greatest presidents in American history.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157712278","content_text":"2月21日（周一）是美国的华盛顿诞辰纪念日，美国包括股市和债市在内的金融市场将休市一天。2月22日（周二）美股恢复正常交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡照常开市。背景简介：华盛顿诞辰纪念日俗称总统日1879年美国国会通过的一项法案首次决定将华盛顿诞辰列为联邦节日。1968年生效的《周一节假日法》则将华盛顿诞辰纪念日从每年的2月22日移到2月的第3个周一。但是，包括这一法案在内，美国迄今没有任何法律规定将“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”这一名称正式改为现在更为人所知的“总统日”。民间情况则有所不同，越来越多的美国人已将2月的第3个周一称为“总统日”。乔治-华盛顿简介：乔治-华盛顿最为常见的画像之一华盛顿全名乔治-华盛顿（英文George Washington，1732年2月22日-1799年12月14日），1775至1783年美国独立战争时他任大陆军总司令，1789年成为美国第一任总统（同时也成为全世界首位以“总统”为称号的国家元首），在接连两次总统选举中他都获得了全体选举团无异议的一致支持，一直担任美国总统直至1797年。1787年他主持美国制宪会议，制定了现在美国宪法的基本框架。他在两届任期中设立了美国许多延续至今的政策和传统。两届任期结束后，他自愿放弃权力不再续任，确立了美国总统任期不超过两届的传统。此后华盛顿回复平民生活，隐居在弗农山庄园。由于他在美国独立战争和建国过程中扮演了最重要角色，华盛顿通常被称为美国国父。美国多数学者一般将他和亚伯拉罕-林肯等并列为美国历史上最伟大的总统之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004645185,"gmtCreate":1642597939714,"gmtModify":1676533726019,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪💪💪","listText":"💪💪💪","text":"💪💪💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004645185","repostId":"1137440410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137440410","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642596238,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137440410?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-19 20:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market: Chinese concept stocks generally rose, and positive financial reports stimulated banking giants to rise","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137440410","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股三大指数期货小幅上涨。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 19 (Wednesday), the three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly. U.S. Treasury Bond narrowed its losses, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield returned to 1.875%. Some people expect the Federal Reserve to issue a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points at its March monetary policy meeting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d3472828fd47952a1a80e4e8b18d63\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Pre-market trend of Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a>It rose 1.38% before the market. Today's \"People's Daily Review\" published an article: Strictly investigate the online transaction of e-cigarettes and control the \"first cigarette\" sold to teenagers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.03%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 1.43%.</p><p>New energy vehicle stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 0.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 0.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 1.32%.</p><p><b>Important pre-market trends of US stocks</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">Sony</a>Continued to fall by more than 4%, and fell 7% yesterday because<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">Sony</a>Competitive pressure increases.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>Up more than 2%, fourth-quarter profit exceeded expectations, but revenue miss the market expectation. However, the company has received orders for five new-generation lithography units, and the company's customers have an urgent need to increase chip production capacity.</p><p>Consumer lending company SoFi Technologies surged more than 17% after SoFi was approved by the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Reserve to become a bank holding company, clearing the last regulatory hurdle to becoming a bank.</p><p>Ford rose 0.37%. According to reports, in the fourth quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Investment gains in Rivian will amount to $8.2 billion. It is reported that Ford Motor is an early investor in Rivian and currently holds 12% of the shares.</p><p>America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">United Health</a>The group rose 0.22%. UnitedHealth's fourth-quarter revenue and profit both exceeded market expectations, and quarterly profit increased 84% to US $4.071 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>Up 1.25%. Procter & Gamble's Q2 net profit in fiscal year 2022 increased by 10% year-on-year, and raised its full-year performance guidance.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Up 2.8%. Bank of America's net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US $7 billion, exceeding expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It rose in a straight line before the market, once rising by more than 3%. Morgan Stanley's fourth-quarter 2021 net income and earnings per share both beat estimates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddc0e193b184e95f784f017acc7482d\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Commodity Trends</b></p><p>International oil prices fluctuated. Geopolitical issues in Russia and the United Arab Emirates have exacerbated the already tight supply and demand situation, although the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey is expected to return to normal operation, and oil prices have narrowed their gains.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures prices were at US $85.41/barrel, an increase of 0.68%; Brent crude oil futures prices were at $88/barrel, an increase of 0.56%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b6adfc5096a5c17c2f01464c6a2f31\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gold strengthens again as the US Dollar Index pulls back under pressure. However, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March continue to increase, causing U.S. bond yields to hit a new high in the past two years to reach the 1.900% mark, and gold prices still face greater resistance to the upward trend.</p><p>As of press time, the price of gold futures in the New York market was at US $1,817.65 per ounce, an increase of 0.29%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734622a0011b797a6a647b379313e6db\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: Chinese concept stocks generally rose, and positive financial reports stimulated banking giants to rise</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: Chinese concept stocks generally rose, and positive financial reports stimulated banking giants to rise\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-19 20:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 19 (Wednesday), the three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly. U.S. Treasury Bond narrowed its losses, and the 10-year Treasury Bond yield returned to 1.875%. Some people expect the Federal Reserve to issue a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points at its March monetary policy meeting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d3472828fd47952a1a80e4e8b18d63\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Pre-market trend of Chinese concept stocks</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a>It rose 1.38% before the market. Today's \"People's Daily Review\" published an article: Strictly investigate the online transaction of e-cigarettes and control the \"first cigarette\" sold to teenagers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.03%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 1.43%.</p><p>New energy vehicle stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 0.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 0.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 1.32%.</p><p><b>Important pre-market trends of US stocks</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">Sony</a>Continued to fall by more than 4%, and fell 7% yesterday because<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">Sony</a>Competitive pressure increases.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>Up more than 2%, fourth-quarter profit exceeded expectations, but revenue miss the market expectation. However, the company has received orders for five new-generation lithography units, and the company's customers have an urgent need to increase chip production capacity.</p><p>Consumer lending company SoFi Technologies surged more than 17% after SoFi was approved by the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Reserve to become a bank holding company, clearing the last regulatory hurdle to becoming a bank.</p><p>Ford rose 0.37%. According to reports, in the fourth quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Investment gains in Rivian will amount to $8.2 billion. It is reported that Ford Motor is an early investor in Rivian and currently holds 12% of the shares.</p><p>America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">United Health</a>The group rose 0.22%. UnitedHealth's fourth-quarter revenue and profit both exceeded market expectations, and quarterly profit increased 84% to US $4.071 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>Up 1.25%. Procter & Gamble's Q2 net profit in fiscal year 2022 increased by 10% year-on-year, and raised its full-year performance guidance.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Up 2.8%. Bank of America's net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US $7 billion, exceeding expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It rose in a straight line before the market, once rising by more than 3%. Morgan Stanley's fourth-quarter 2021 net income and earnings per share both beat estimates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddc0e193b184e95f784f017acc7482d\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Commodity Trends</b></p><p>International oil prices fluctuated. Geopolitical issues in Russia and the United Arab Emirates have exacerbated the already tight supply and demand situation, although the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey is expected to return to normal operation, and oil prices have narrowed their gains.</p><p>As of press time, WTI crude oil futures prices were at US $85.41/barrel, an increase of 0.68%; Brent crude oil futures prices were at $88/barrel, an increase of 0.56%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b6adfc5096a5c17c2f01464c6a2f31\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gold strengthens again as the US Dollar Index pulls back under pressure. However, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March continue to increase, causing U.S. bond yields to hit a new high in the past two years to reach the 1.900% mark, and gold prices still face greater resistance to the upward trend.</p><p>As of press time, the price of gold futures in the New York market was at US $1,817.65 per ounce, an increase of 0.29%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734622a0011b797a6a647b379313e6db\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137440410","content_text":"1月19日（周三），美股三大指数期货小幅上涨。美国国国债缩小跌幅，10年期国债收益率回到1.875%。部分人士预计美联储在3月货币政策会议上可能一次性加息50个基点。中概股盘前走势RLX科技盘前涨1.38%。今日“人民日报评论”发表文章：严查电子烟线上交易，管住卖向青少年的“第一支烟”。阿里巴巴涨0.03%，京东涨0.14%，拼多多涨1.43%。新能源汽车股涨跌不一，小鹏汽车跌0.25%，理想汽车涨0.16%、蔚来涨1.32%。重要美股盘前走势索尼续跌超4%，昨日大跌7%，因微软收购动视暴雪，索尼竞争压力加大。阿斯麦涨超2%，第四季度盈利超预期，但营收不及市场预期。不过，公司已经收到5台新一代光刻机订单，同时公司客户对提高芯片产能的需求非常迫切。消费贷公司SoFi Technologies大涨超17%，此前SoFi获得了美国货币监理署(OCC)和美联储的批准，成为一家银行控股公司，清除成为银行的最后一道监管障碍。福特涨0.37%.据报道，第四季度，福特汽车对Rivian的投资收益将达82亿美元。据悉，福特汽车是 Rivian早期投资人，目前持有 12% 股权。美国联合健康集团涨0.22%，联合健康第四季度营收和盈利均超市场预期，季度利润增长84%至40.71亿美元。宝洁涨1.25%。宝洁2022财年Q2净利同比增10%，上调全年业绩指引。美国银行涨2.8%。美国银行2021年四季度净利润70亿美元，超过预期。摩根士丹利盘前直线拉升，一度涨超3%。摩根士丹利2021年第四季度净利润及每股收益均超过预期。大宗商品走势国际油价震荡。俄罗斯和阿联酋地缘政治问题加剧了本已十分紧张的供需形势，尽管从伊拉克到土耳其的输油管道有望恢复正常运行，油价缩窄了涨幅。截至发稿，WTI原油期货价格报85.41美元/桶，涨幅0.68%；布伦特原油期货价格报88美元/桶，涨幅0.56%。黄金重新走强，因美元指数承压回落。但市场对美联储3月加息预期不断增加，使得美债收益率触及近两年新高至1.900%关口，金价上行仍面临较大阻力。截至发稿，纽约市场黄金期货价格报1817.65美元/盎司，涨幅0.29%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837205010,"gmtCreate":1629889603030,"gmtModify":1676530163268,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837205010","repostId":"2162036708","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029513963,"gmtCreate":1652797531552,"gmtModify":1676535163566,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029513963","repostId":"1105191089","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105191089","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652758592,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105191089?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-17 11:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Who is the second Tesla? Soros is betting heavily on this","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105191089","media":"Wind万得","summary":"现在说起电动车，全球投资者头脑中浮现的第一个品牌基本都是特斯拉。随着电动车产业的发展，除特斯拉之外还有400多个大大小小的品牌，这其中一定会出现一家或几家可以和特斯拉相抗衡的企业，索罗斯就重金押注其中","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Now when it comes to electric vehicles, the first brands that come to mind of global investors are basically<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>。 With the development of the electric vehicle industry, there are more than 400 large and small brands besides Tesla. Among them, there will definitely be one or several companies that can compete with Tesla. Soros is betting heavily on one of them.</p><p>With the development of the past ten years, the electric vehicle market has become more and more mature, and more and more brands have emerged. Tesla has always occupied the largest sales share in the market with the best sales of Model 3 and Model Y. From 21% in 2017 to 28% in 2020, its market share declined last year, falling to 26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a0af26df2ce148f6c10ecf34f487ac\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, a total of 417 electric vehicle models were on sale in the global market, and 264 models were produced in the Chinese market. With so many brands fighting, it is difficult for Tesla to maintain its leading edge all the time, and investment tycoons are also looking for the \"next Tesla\". Soros has always been in love with Rivian, an American electric pickup truck brand.</p><p>According to the 13F position report disclosed last week, the largest holding of Soros's Quantum Fund is still Rivian, holding about 19.84 million shares, with a market value of about 997 million US dollars, accounting for 15.16% of the investment portfolio. Rivian was a newly opened stock by Soros in the fourth quarter of last year. After opening the position, it became the largest position. By the first quarter of this year, the number of positions held has not changed from the previous quarter, but the market value has shrunk significantly because Rivian has fallen by nearly 80% year-to-date.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8570e93d4ecfa96dc6e387203f2bea3d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Soros not only has a heavy position in Rivian stocks, but from the perspective of changes in the position ratio, the highest purchase in Q1 is Rivian's call option.</p><p>Founded in 2009, later than Tesla, Rivian is an electric vehicle and autonomous driving technology manufacturer in the United States. Unlike Tesla, Rivian chose an extremely popular track in the United States from the beginning-electric pickup trucks. Before going public, Rivian was sought after by capital. In 2019 alone, Rivian conducted 4 rounds of financing, raising $2.85 billion in funding. Its investors include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>And other well-known companies and institutions, among which investors such as Amazon and BlackRock have even participated many times. However, before the official launch, Rivian did not have a real production car delivered to ordinary users.</p><p>Although Soros has a heavy position, Rivian's operating data is not good-looking. The Q1 financial report shows that Rivian's revenue was US $95 million, lower than the market consensus expectation of US $131.2 million; Net loss was US $1.593 billion, compared with US $414 million in the same period last year; Adjusted loss per share was $1.43, slightly better than consensus estimates of $1.45. Rivian previously halved its planned production for 2022 to 25,000 vehicles, only half of what the company promised investors during its IPO roadshow last year.</p><p>Rivian has produced 1,015 vehicles and delivered 920 by the end of 2021 since production began in the third quarter of last year. If the production in the first quarter of this year is added, the total production reaches 3,568 vehicles.</p><p>Rivian's Normal, Illinois plant currently has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, and the company said it plans to increase its annual production capacity to 200,000 vehicles by 2023. Another Rivian factory is scheduled to start production in 2024 and will eventually produce 400,000 vehicles per year and produce batteries.</p><p>Not only is Soros optimistic,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Also maintains an \"overweight\" rating on Rivian. Analyst Adam Jonas said: \"After taking into account various adverse factors, even though the overall stock market is currently sluggish, we believe that the company's current stock price is still slightly lower. Through estimates, the current stock price is not enough to reflect the company's annual sales forecast of 200,000 electric vehicles in 2030.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is the second Tesla? Soros is betting heavily on this</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is the second Tesla? Soros is betting heavily on this\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-17 11:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Now when it comes to electric vehicles, the first brands that come to mind of global investors are basically<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>。 With the development of the electric vehicle industry, there are more than 400 large and small brands besides Tesla. Among them, there will definitely be one or several companies that can compete with Tesla. Soros is betting heavily on one of them.</p><p>With the development of the past ten years, the electric vehicle market has become more and more mature, and more and more brands have emerged. Tesla has always occupied the largest sales share in the market with the best sales of Model 3 and Model Y. From 21% in 2017 to 28% in 2020, its market share declined last year, falling to 26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a0af26df2ce148f6c10ecf34f487ac\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, a total of 417 electric vehicle models were on sale in the global market, and 264 models were produced in the Chinese market. With so many brands fighting, it is difficult for Tesla to maintain its leading edge all the time, and investment tycoons are also looking for the \"next Tesla\". Soros has always been in love with Rivian, an American electric pickup truck brand.</p><p>According to the 13F position report disclosed last week, the largest holding of Soros's Quantum Fund is still Rivian, holding about 19.84 million shares, with a market value of about 997 million US dollars, accounting for 15.16% of the investment portfolio. Rivian was a newly opened stock by Soros in the fourth quarter of last year. After opening the position, it became the largest position. By the first quarter of this year, the number of positions held has not changed from the previous quarter, but the market value has shrunk significantly because Rivian has fallen by nearly 80% year-to-date.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8570e93d4ecfa96dc6e387203f2bea3d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Soros not only has a heavy position in Rivian stocks, but from the perspective of changes in the position ratio, the highest purchase in Q1 is Rivian's call option.</p><p>Founded in 2009, later than Tesla, Rivian is an electric vehicle and autonomous driving technology manufacturer in the United States. Unlike Tesla, Rivian chose an extremely popular track in the United States from the beginning-electric pickup trucks. Before going public, Rivian was sought after by capital. In 2019 alone, Rivian conducted 4 rounds of financing, raising $2.85 billion in funding. Its investors include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>And other well-known companies and institutions, among which investors such as Amazon and BlackRock have even participated many times. However, before the official launch, Rivian did not have a real production car delivered to ordinary users.</p><p>Although Soros has a heavy position, Rivian's operating data is not good-looking. The Q1 financial report shows that Rivian's revenue was US $95 million, lower than the market consensus expectation of US $131.2 million; Net loss was US $1.593 billion, compared with US $414 million in the same period last year; Adjusted loss per share was $1.43, slightly better than consensus estimates of $1.45. Rivian previously halved its planned production for 2022 to 25,000 vehicles, only half of what the company promised investors during its IPO roadshow last year.</p><p>Rivian has produced 1,015 vehicles and delivered 920 by the end of 2021 since production began in the third quarter of last year. If the production in the first quarter of this year is added, the total production reaches 3,568 vehicles.</p><p>Rivian's Normal, Illinois plant currently has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, and the company said it plans to increase its annual production capacity to 200,000 vehicles by 2023. Another Rivian factory is scheduled to start production in 2024 and will eventually produce 400,000 vehicles per year and produce batteries.</p><p>Not only is Soros optimistic,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Also maintains an \"overweight\" rating on Rivian. Analyst Adam Jonas said: \"After taking into account various adverse factors, even though the overall stock market is currently sluggish, we believe that the company's current stock price is still slightly lower. Through estimates, the current stock price is not enough to reflect the company's annual sales forecast of 200,000 electric vehicles in 2030.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845e27845a0aca10a09a5e12cdfb276e","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105191089","content_text":"现在说起电动车，全球投资者头脑中浮现的第一个品牌基本都是特斯拉。随着电动车产业的发展，除特斯拉之外还有400多个大大小小的品牌，这其中一定会出现一家或几家可以和特斯拉相抗衡的企业，索罗斯就重金押注其中一个。随着近十几年的发展，电动车市场越来越成熟，涌现出的品牌也越来越多，特斯拉凭借着Model 3和Model Y的畅销一直占据市场最大销售份额。从2017年的21%提升到2020年的28%，去年其市场份额出现下滑，下降至26%。据不完全统计，2022年第一季度，全球市场共417种电动车型号在销售，中国市场产出了264款。这么多品牌厮杀，特斯拉很难一直保持领先优势，投资大佬也在寻找“下一个特斯拉”。索罗斯一直钟情于美国电动皮卡品牌Rivian。根据上周披露的13F持仓报告，索罗斯旗下量子基金第一大重仓股依然是Rivian，持仓约1984万股，持仓市值约9.97亿美元，占投资组合比例为15.16%。Rivian是索罗斯去年第四季度新建仓个股，建仓后即为第一重仓股，到今年一季度持仓数量环比无任何变化，但市值已大幅缩水，因为Rivian年初至今已下跌近80%。索罗斯不仅重仓Rivian个股，从持仓比例变化来看，Q1买入最高的是Rivian的看涨期权。Rivian成立于2009年，较特斯拉要晚，是美国的一家电动汽车和自动驾驶技术厂商。Rivian与特斯拉不同，其从一开始就选择了一条在美国极其讨喜的赛道——电动皮卡车。上市前，Rivian就受到资本追捧。仅在2019年，Rivian就进行了4轮融资，筹集到了28.5亿美元的资金。其投资方包括亚马逊、福特汽车、贝莱德等知名企业及机构，其中亚马逊、贝莱德等投资方甚至多次参与其中。不过，在正式上市前，Rivian没有一款真正意义上的量产车交付给普通用户。虽然索罗斯重仓，但Rivian的经营数据并不好看，Q1财报显示，Rivian营收为9500万美元，低于市场普遍预期的1.312亿美元；净亏损为15.93亿美元，上年同期为4.14亿美元；调整后每股亏损为1.43美元，略好于市场预期的1.45美元。此前Rivian将其2022年的计划产量削减了一半至2.5万辆，仅是该公司去年在IPO路演中向投资者承诺的一半。自去年第三季度开始生产以来，Rivian到2021年底已生产了1015辆汽车，交付了920辆。若加上今年第一季度的产量，总产量达到了3,568辆。Rivian伊利诺伊州Normal工厂目前的年产能为15万辆，公司表示，计划在2023年前将该厂年产能提高到20万辆。Rivian另一家工厂定于2024年投产，最终将年产40万辆汽车，并生产电池。不仅索罗斯看好，摩根士丹利也维持对Rivian的“增持”评级。分析师Adam Jonas表示:“在将各种不良因素考虑进去后，即使目前整体股市低迷，但我们认为该公司目前的股价依然略低。通过估算，目前的股价并不足以反映该公司在2030年的20万辆电车年销量预期”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060224190,"gmtCreate":1651156619442,"gmtModify":1676534860590,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060224190","repostId":"1123914915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123914915","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651153597,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123914915?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 21:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Most new energy vehicle sectors in U.S. stocks fell, with Tesla falling nearly 4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123914915","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月28日，美股新能源车板块多数走低，福特汽车跌超5%，特斯拉跌近4%，Rivian跌2.2%，蔚来跌近2%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 28, most of the new energy vehicle sectors in the US stock market fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Fell nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>Down 2.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70964b41ebcc4ef7a7923eb9fa972abc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Most new energy vehicle sectors in U.S. stocks fell, with Tesla falling nearly 4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-28 21:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 28, most of the new energy vehicle sectors in the US stock market fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Fell nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>Down 2.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70964b41ebcc4ef7a7923eb9fa972abc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{"161028":"新能源车","399417":"新能源车","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123914915","content_text":"4月28日，美股新能源车板块多数走低，福特汽车跌超5%，特斯拉跌近4%，Rivian跌2.2%，蔚来跌近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161028":0.9,"399417":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030457522,"gmtCreate":1645796561500,"gmtModify":1676534065066,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😁😁😁","listText":"😁😁😁","text":"😁😁😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030457522","repostId":"1101627139","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030457114,"gmtCreate":1645796508149,"gmtModify":1676534065043,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030457114","repostId":"1103624060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103624060","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1645788811,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103624060?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-25 19:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Don't be fooled by soaring oil prices, these three factors are key","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103624060","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"周四随着地缘危机升级，伦敦布伦特原油和WTI原油价格都已逼近100美元，并有可能继续走高。布伦特原油期货周线图，来源：Investing.com考虑到形势的迅速变化，交易员必须梳理各方的信息和立场，以","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the geopolitical crisis escalated on Thursday, London Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices both approached $100 and are likely to continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a653e8cda3fb436ff51b72a41a2f9e\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"844\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weekly chart of Brent crude oil futures, Source: Investing.com</p><p>Given the rapidly changing situation, traders must comb through the information and positions of all sides to understand what is really affecting energy prices right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/612e6f86ec66e8480de69f692148cb2a\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"844\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weekly chart of WTI crude oil futures, Source: Investing.com</p><p>Here are 3 key factors to be aware of:</p><p><b>1. Nord Stream 2 has not been cancelled</b>On Tuesday, Germany announced that it does not intend to issue a license certificate to operate the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. When the news broke, many media outlets described the move as a major impact on energy supplies, when it was not. For example, CNN's headline is \"German stops Nord Stream 2 project, Russian responds with stern warning.\" Similarly, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>\"Wrote,\" Germany stopped Nord Stream 2, an important Russian natural gas pipeline. \"</p><p>These two headlines convince readers that Germany has effectively stopped delivering gas through pipelines. This may lead traders to think that an energy crisis in Western Europe is imminent. However, the Nord Stream 2 is not actually operational.</p><p>The pipeline has been completed and can carry natural gas, but it has not yet been operational. Gazprom, which owns the pipeline, has yet to comply with EU anti-competitive regulations. All Germany did on Tuesday was announce that it was temporarily shelving the final certification of the pipeline.</p><p>Germany is not expected to certify the pipeline until later this year. The suspension also did not affect gas deliveries. Given the impact of this announcement on the Nord Stream 2 line, traders should be wary of inaccurate reporting on energy issues.</p><p>Gazprom, which is continuing to supply gas through the original Nord Stream 1 pipeline, may decide to reduce gas exports to Europe in an effort to force concessions from the German and European Union to allow the use of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.<b>It's all speculation, though</b>。</p><p><b>2. Rhetoric does not mean actual action</b>U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Johnson delivered speeches strongly condemning Russia, but did not impose sanctions on Russia's energy industry.</p><p>The uncertainty about the situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to higher oil prices, and so have gasoline prices in the United States. However, none of the sanctions announced so far has had any impact on oil trade, only on ill-informed speculators.</p><p>In fact, 700,000 barrels of Russian crude oil were shipped to the U.S. on Tuesday, according to TankerTrackers.com. Traders need to note that the words of leaders on both sides do not necessarily translate into actual actions.</p><p>On the issue of natural gas, some remarks are also inconsistent with reality. For example, a senior U.S. official told reporters that the German temporary suspension of certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline means the pipeline will now be wasted, a major turning point for the world's energy independence from Russians.</p><p>This is simply not the case. The truth about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been explained earlier. In addition to this, there are multiple pipelines that continue to transport natural gas from Russia to various parts of Europe and Asia.</p><p><b>3. OPEC + is unlikely to change course</b>The Biden administration has repeatedly tried to persuade Saudi Arabia and OPEC to increase oil production, but Saudi Arabia remains firmly committed not to increase production.</p><p>In fact, the Arab members of OPEC, which actually have spare capacity to increase production, have shown unusual solidarity in opposing the US request. On February 20, at an industry conference in Saudi Arabia, the oil ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait all expressed similar views, pledging to stay within established production quotas.</p><p>UAE Oil Minister Suhail Mazrouei said he did not believe the market was currently severely undersupplied and geopolitical tensions were out of their control.</p><p>As OPEC + continues to reject Washington's requests to increase production, remember that Russia is an active and powerful member of OPEC +. Other members of OPEC + want to keep their alliance with Russia unchanged.</p><p>We don't know if this is a driving factor in the current policies of Arab oil-producing countries, but it certainly plays a role. However, traders should keep in mind that OPEC + still meets monthly and could change production policies if members have sufficient reasons to do so. The next meeting of OPEC + will be held on March 2.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't be fooled by soaring oil prices, these three factors are key</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't be fooled by soaring oil prices, these three factors are key\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-25 19:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the geopolitical crisis escalated on Thursday, London Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices both approached $100 and are likely to continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a653e8cda3fb436ff51b72a41a2f9e\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"844\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weekly chart of Brent crude oil futures, Source: Investing.com</p><p>Given the rapidly changing situation, traders must comb through the information and positions of all sides to understand what is really affecting energy prices right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/612e6f86ec66e8480de69f692148cb2a\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"844\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weekly chart of WTI crude oil futures, Source: Investing.com</p><p>Here are 3 key factors to be aware of:</p><p><b>1. Nord Stream 2 has not been cancelled</b>On Tuesday, Germany announced that it does not intend to issue a license certificate to operate the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. When the news broke, many media outlets described the move as a major impact on energy supplies, when it was not. For example, CNN's headline is \"German stops Nord Stream 2 project, Russian responds with stern warning.\" Similarly, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>\"Wrote,\" Germany stopped Nord Stream 2, an important Russian natural gas pipeline. \"</p><p>These two headlines convince readers that Germany has effectively stopped delivering gas through pipelines. This may lead traders to think that an energy crisis in Western Europe is imminent. However, the Nord Stream 2 is not actually operational.</p><p>The pipeline has been completed and can carry natural gas, but it has not yet been operational. Gazprom, which owns the pipeline, has yet to comply with EU anti-competitive regulations. All Germany did on Tuesday was announce that it was temporarily shelving the final certification of the pipeline.</p><p>Germany is not expected to certify the pipeline until later this year. The suspension also did not affect gas deliveries. Given the impact of this announcement on the Nord Stream 2 line, traders should be wary of inaccurate reporting on energy issues.</p><p>Gazprom, which is continuing to supply gas through the original Nord Stream 1 pipeline, may decide to reduce gas exports to Europe in an effort to force concessions from the German and European Union to allow the use of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.<b>It's all speculation, though</b>。</p><p><b>2. Rhetoric does not mean actual action</b>U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Johnson delivered speeches strongly condemning Russia, but did not impose sanctions on Russia's energy industry.</p><p>The uncertainty about the situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to higher oil prices, and so have gasoline prices in the United States. However, none of the sanctions announced so far has had any impact on oil trade, only on ill-informed speculators.</p><p>In fact, 700,000 barrels of Russian crude oil were shipped to the U.S. on Tuesday, according to TankerTrackers.com. Traders need to note that the words of leaders on both sides do not necessarily translate into actual actions.</p><p>On the issue of natural gas, some remarks are also inconsistent with reality. For example, a senior U.S. official told reporters that the German temporary suspension of certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline means the pipeline will now be wasted, a major turning point for the world's energy independence from Russians.</p><p>This is simply not the case. The truth about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been explained earlier. In addition to this, there are multiple pipelines that continue to transport natural gas from Russia to various parts of Europe and Asia.</p><p><b>3. OPEC + is unlikely to change course</b>The Biden administration has repeatedly tried to persuade Saudi Arabia and OPEC to increase oil production, but Saudi Arabia remains firmly committed not to increase production.</p><p>In fact, the Arab members of OPEC, which actually have spare capacity to increase production, have shown unusual solidarity in opposing the US request. On February 20, at an industry conference in Saudi Arabia, the oil ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait all expressed similar views, pledging to stay within established production quotas.</p><p>UAE Oil Minister Suhail Mazrouei said he did not believe the market was currently severely undersupplied and geopolitical tensions were out of their control.</p><p>As OPEC + continues to reject Washington's requests to increase production, remember that Russia is an active and powerful member of OPEC +. Other members of OPEC + want to keep their alliance with Russia unchanged.</p><p>We don't know if this is a driving factor in the current policies of Arab oil-producing countries, but it certainly plays a role. However, traders should keep in mind that OPEC + still meets monthly and could change production policies if members have sufficient reasons to do so. The next meeting of OPEC + will be held on March 2.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/694f12098a1183856ae9f1a61e97c6c4","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103624060","content_text":"周四随着地缘危机升级，伦敦布伦特原油和WTI原油价格都已逼近100美元，并有可能继续走高。布伦特原油期货周线图，来源：Investing.com考虑到形势的迅速变化，交易员必须梳理各方的信息和立场，以了解目前真正影响能源价格的因素。WTI原油期货周线图，来源：Investing.com以下是需要注意的3个关键因素:1. 北溪2号并未被取消周二，德国宣布，目前还不打算颁发北溪2号管道运营许可证书。当这一消息传出时，许多媒体都将这一举措描述为对能源供应的重大影响，而实际上并非如此。例如，CNN的标题是“德国停止北溪- 2项目，俄罗斯以严厉警告回应。” 同样，《纽约时报》写道，“德国叫停了俄罗斯重要的天然气管道——北溪2号。”这两个标题让读者相信，德国实际上停止了通过管道输送天然气。这可能会让交易员认为，西欧的能源危机迫在眉睫。然而，北溪2号实际上并未投入使用。这条管道已经完工，可以输送天然气，但还没有投入使用。拥有这条管道的俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)尚未遵守欧盟的反竞争法规。德国周二所做的不过是宣布暂时搁置对这条管道的最终认证。预计德国要到今年晚些时候才会对这条管道进行认证。此次暂停也没有影响天然气输送。考虑到这一声明对北溪2号线的影响，交易员应该警惕有关能源问题的不准确报道。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)正继续通过原来的北溪1号管道供应天然气，该公司可能会决定减少对欧洲的天然气出口，以迫使德国和欧盟做出让步，从而允许北溪2号管道的使用。不过，这一切都是猜测。2. 花言巧语并不代表着实际行动美国总统拜登和英国首相约翰逊发表讲话，强烈谴责俄罗斯， 但并未对俄罗斯的能源产业进行制裁。俄罗斯和乌克兰局势的不确定性导致油价上涨，美国国内的汽油价格也在上涨。然而，迄今为止宣布的制裁措施都没有对石油贸易产生任何影响，只是对消息不灵通的投机者产生了影响。事实上，根据TankerTrackers.com的数据，周二有70万桶俄罗斯原油运往美国。交易员需要注意，双方领导人的言论并不一定会转化为实际行动。在天然气问题上，一些言论也与现实不符。例如，一名美国高级官员告诉记者，德国暂时停止北溪2号管道的认证意味着这条管道现在将被浪费，这是世界能源独立于俄罗斯的一个重大转折点。这根本不是实际情况。北溪2号管道的真相前面已经解释，除此之外，还有多条管道继续将天然气从俄罗斯输送到欧洲和亚洲的各个地方。3. OPEC+不太可能改变路线拜登政府已经多次试图说服沙特阿拉伯和欧佩克增加石油产量，但沙特阿拉伯仍然坚决承诺不提高产量。事实上，欧佩克的阿拉伯成员国在反对美国的请求时，表现出了异乎寻常的团结，这些国家实际上拥有增加产量的闲置产能。2月20日，在沙特阿拉伯举行的一个行业会议上，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特的石油部长都表达了类似的观点，承诺将保持在既定的产量配额之内。阿联酋石油部长Suhail Mazrouei表示，他并不认为目前市场供应严重不足，而地缘政治紧张局势不受他们控制。当OPEC+继续拒绝华盛顿增加产量的请求时，要记住俄罗斯是OPEC+中一个积极而强大的成员。OPEC+的其他成员国希望保持与俄罗斯的联盟不变。我们不知道这是否是阿拉伯产油国当前政策的驱动因素，但它肯定起到了一定作用。然而，贸易商应该记住，OPEC+仍然每月举行一次会议，如果成员国有足够的理由，可能会改变生产政策。OPEC+下一次会议将于3月2日举行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001889161,"gmtCreate":1641216833290,"gmtModify":1676533583746,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001889161","repostId":"1144034161","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001889027,"gmtCreate":1641216747921,"gmtModify":1676533583707,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001889027","repostId":"1132099225","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888313750,"gmtCreate":1631434480270,"gmtModify":1676530548118,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888313750","repostId":"1164246826","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164246826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631413832,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164246826?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-12 10:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"I don't know how Nokia came, but I know how he didn't","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164246826","media":"亿欧网","summary":"2011年的诺基亚手机帝国，就如同万历十五年的大明王朝。\n\n都说诺基亚的手机帝国是轰然倒下的，那诺基亚到底输在了哪一年？\n是iPhone发布的2007年，是手机部门被微软收购的2013年，还是手机业务","content":"<p>2011<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone empire is like the Ming Dynasty in the fifteenth year of Wanli. They all say<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HAF.UK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone empire collapsed, so in which year did Nokia lose?</p><p>It was the iPhone released in 2007, and it was the mobile phone department that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>In 2013, when the acquisition was made, or in 2016, when the mobile phone business was completely divested and sold?</p><p>In our opinion,<b>The answer closer to the truth may be 2011.</b></p><p>Before the beginning of 2011, Nokia was still the global smartphone shipment champion in 2010, with a market share of 33.1%. Symbian system was still the most used mobile operating system among smartphone users, reaching a peak of 34.51%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109f94a18e4e124e17141ca3270c8285\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But after 2011 started, everything quietly changed. In the history of the smartphone industry, it was a connecting year between the preceding and the following. The stories that happened in it not only determined the demise of Nokia, but also laid the foundation for today's industry structure.</p><p>Everything changed since February 2011.</p><p>At that time, Nokia announced that it had formed a strategic alliance with Microsoft, and its products would gradually abandon its own Symbian system and MeeGo system and switch to the Windows Phone system camp.</p><p>If you used a Nokia mobile phone ten years ago, you would know that the experience of using Symbian system is actually OK, and various applications can be installed and run smoothly. There are more complicated reasons why Saipan was eliminated, regardless of its own quality.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/200cc620aabfa647b483687e480405ba\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the one hand, when it took the lead in the smartphone market in the 2000s, Nokia hoped that its friends could also use Symbian, so that it could be both an athlete and a referee, and easily control the entire track.</p><p>This strategy undoubtedly forces friends to find other partners, such as the open source Android system.</p><p>On the other hand, with the rise of 3G and the popularity of smart phones, the criterion for evaluating the quality of a system lies in whether there are a large number of third-party applications in its ecosystem.<b>For third-party developers, Symbian is an operating system with a high development threshold, which is not as friendly as Android or iOS.</b></p><p>In contrast, whether you are from the Internet<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>, or dealing with third parties on the PC side for more than 20 years<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, all have more experience and methods than Nokia. They also operate excellent app stores such as App Sotre or Google Play respectively, which ensures the income of software developers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01533abf39adcec25da5c7efc127096f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So when Symbian no longer conforms to the historical trend and is related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>When the progress of the joint research and development of MeeGo system was too slow, Nokia made a decision. They found Google and Microsoft successively to test the possibility of cooperation.</p><p>To this day, many people still imagine whether Nokia could have maintained its hegemony until now if it had chosen to use Android.</p><p>But this possibility does not exist because<b>Nokia talked to Google, but the talk collapsed.</b></p><p>Android uses built-in first-party software services, Google's own maps, mailbox, browser, app store and so on. But in the Symbian era, Nokia already had mature first-party applications with highly overlapping functions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04300649baec7bb44307a39bd4fca02e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Android is still very young at this time and has not formed a monopoly. Google never wants Nokia to retain its own software ecosystem.</p><p>For Nokia, without these software value-added services, it will become a pure mobile phone maker, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>, HTC and other younger generations, fight hand-to-hand in the global market by piling up hardware, marketing and price wars. This is also something they can never accept.</p><p>Unlike Google, Microsoft, which has lagged behind the starting line in the era of smartphones, needs the cooperation of giants more. They promised to let Nokia master the common leadership of Windows Phone system.</p><p>As a result, under the leadership of Nokia's then CEO and former Microsoft executive Elop, the marriage between the two was completed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371e232a18ebdaeb8b8934d7f5268ee5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was this decision that started Nokia's nightmare.</p><p>First of all, this cooperation made the subsequent release of the flagship N9 equipped with the MeeGo system tasteless. Although the quality of this mobile phone product is not low, when you know that it is an out-of-print system, no manufacturer will use it again in the future, do you still buy this mobile phone?</p><p>What's even worse is that this series of stupid tricks has caused many Nokia users to switch to Android and Apple camps, and the shipments of Android phones and iPhones have surpassed Nokia for the first time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e1b8ff66a80ac128192614f172acb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Secondly, giving up Symbian, which has been working hard for more than ten years, means that Nokia has completely lost its first-mover advantage in the 2000s. From then on, they need to accompany Microsoft to build the Windows Phone ecosystem almost from scratch.</p><p>On the contrary, Apple and Google have the first-mover advantage at this time. In May 2011, the total number of applications in the iOS ecosystem has exceeded 500,000, and it is not easy to overtake.</p><p>Finally, Microsoft has been spending money on mobile phone systems since the 00s, but it has always failed. In this cooperation, the performance is not very good either.</p><p>The most typical example is WP8, which was released after one year of cooperation. It abandoned the old system kernel and used the new kernel instead, which led to two consequences. First, it made it more difficult for third-party developers to develop, and second, WP7 users could not upgrade to WP8. Successfully offends both developers and users. Who did you make this system for?</p><p>The answer may be made for Win8 on the PC side. The reason why the kernel is replaced is that the mobile system can be coordinated with the newly released Win8 on the PC.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58571774e3850b74e35400d276552c69\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps this is the reason why Microsoft has been unable to handle the mobile phone system. Others are making a small, light and easy-to-use computer, while Microsoft is making a terminal that can be used with their computer system and make phone calls by the way.</p><p>But my lord, times have changed, and the PC side died early in the morning.</p><p><b>So is the combination of Nokia and Microsoft doomed to be a tragedy?</b>Actually, not necessarily. If their cooperation was earlier, maybe Nokia would still have a chance, but their cooperation appeared in 2011, the turbulent year of 2011.</p><p>In February when Nokia announced its cooperation with Microsoft, Samsung released the S2, the second model of the S series, at MWC.</p><p>The S2 is quite similar to the iPhone. Its total sales volume of 40 million units is close to the iPhone 4 released six months ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d86b9c676f2122452752fe33344da3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Half a year later, Samsung released a 5.3-inch Note mobile phone, creating a trend of large-screen mobile phones. Although Jobs once thought that the 3.5-inch small screen was the perfect size, Apple gradually relented and followed suit and launched the large-screen Plus model.</p><p>The rise of Samsung mobile phones has made Apple feel strong discomfort and uneasiness. Two months after the release of S2, Apple launched a lawsuit accusing Samsung of plagiarizing many of its designs. The lawsuit lasted until 2018, and it ended with Samsung's compensation of US $539 million.</p><p>In fact, what was even more uncomfortable at that time was Nokia. Before that, many people still put their hope of blocking the iPhone on Nokia. N97 and N8 would be declared as \"iPhone killers\". But after the success of Samsung's S2 and Note, Nokia was completely squeezed out of the high-end mobile phone market.</p><p>In addition, driven by dual flagships, Samsung has subverted Nokia's shipment hegemony. In 2010, Samsung's smartphone market share was only 7.6%, and its shipments were less than 1/4 of Nokia's. But in 2011, Samsung's shipments surged by 310.5%, winning the smartphone sales champion that year. Nokia's shipments fell by 22.8%, and its ranking dropped from first to third. Most of the lost market share was taken away by Samsung.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1cf6c05eeac0c483951b0f2df69b73\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since then, Nokia has bid farewell to the throne of the market share champion forever.</p><p>However, for it, the mysterious power from the East that year was far more than Samsung. In China, which is about to become the largest market for smartphones in the world, an earth-shaking change is also brewing.</p><p>At the beginning of 2011, Huawei changed its mobile phone business positioning and targeted mid-to-high-end products, with Yu Chengdong in charge. But the rise of Huawei mobile phones will take a few years, and something that directly changed the rules of the game that year happened in August.</p><p>On August 16th, 2011, Lei Jun, wearing a black T-shirt, stood on the stage and showed everyone the first-generation millet with a price of 1999 yuan. The staggering pricing and phenomenal snap-up announced that the era of smartphones in China had begun, and countless players began to flood into this sea area.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef0d5bd5daa1329ce9de5feb76daec15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From then on, relying on China's growing supply chain system, domestic mobile phones will become the main player of global smartphones in less than ten years, eroding the living space of all other overseas mobile phone brands except Apple and Samsung.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/748fc8a8c431f386debb36c5362076b1\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Just eight days after Xiaomi's release, Apple announced that Jobs would step down as CEO and be replaced by Cook. More than a month later, on October 5th, Jobs died, and a generation of superstars fell.</p><p>While everyone expressed their condolences, people began to frantically buy Jobs' official biography, re-read and know the master's life and product philosophy. At least in China, we can responsibly say that from that year, a large number of new Jobs fans and Apple fans were born. Since then, Apple has become a belief.</p><p>Jobs' successor, Cook, was questioned at the beginning of his term of office, but later it turned out that,<b>He is one of the best CEOs of this era.</b></p><p>He reshaped the supply chain management of Apple products and devoted a lot of energy to the Chinese market. For example, actively cooperating with China's policies, establishing a Guizhou data center on the cloud, and removing games without version numbers were completely unimaginable in the Jobs era.</p><p>In addition, compared with Jobs, who has never been to China in his life, Cook has visited China more than ten times and has also been interviewed by He. You know, these used to be Nokia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">Ericsson</a>, Motorola, an old communication giant, is good at. And when Apple can do it, the old guys will lose their final advantage on the consumer side.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129c73acc213b99b0f70d6080a1e9ae2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>During Cook's tenure, he maintained the iPhone's leading position in the high-end machine market, created the revolutionary single product AirPods, and led Apple to become the first company in history with a market value of over one trillion dollars.<b>It is not easy to be a successor to keep the world so successfully.</b></p><p>Standing today, ten years later, we will find that the Nokia mobile phone empire in 2011 is just like the Ming Dynasty in the fifteenth year of Wanli: in that year, the remaining power of the mobile phone industry was still there, but the fate of its destruction could not be reversed. We will also find that it was a year of undercurrents.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d01a89a29c365b755baf594837e41641\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The fate of countless companies was decided ten years ago. All the fruits harvested today come from sowing at that time.</p><p>Reviewing the past and learning the new. Since Huawei was banned by the United States last year, the mobile phone industry is no longer calm. Today, how many undercurrents are surging downstairs? What stories will we witness in the next ten years?</p>","source":"yow","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>I don't know how Nokia came, but I know how he didn't</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nI don't know how Nokia came, but I know how he didn't\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">亿欧网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 10:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2011<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone empire is like the Ming Dynasty in the fifteenth year of Wanli. They all say<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HAF.UK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone empire collapsed, so in which year did Nokia lose?</p><p>It was the iPhone released in 2007, and it was the mobile phone department that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>In 2013, when the acquisition was made, or in 2016, when the mobile phone business was completely divested and sold?</p><p>In our opinion,<b>The answer closer to the truth may be 2011.</b></p><p>Before the beginning of 2011, Nokia was still the global smartphone shipment champion in 2010, with a market share of 33.1%. Symbian system was still the most used mobile operating system among smartphone users, reaching a peak of 34.51%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/109f94a18e4e124e17141ca3270c8285\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But after 2011 started, everything quietly changed. In the history of the smartphone industry, it was a connecting year between the preceding and the following. The stories that happened in it not only determined the demise of Nokia, but also laid the foundation for today's industry structure.</p><p>Everything changed since February 2011.</p><p>At that time, Nokia announced that it had formed a strategic alliance with Microsoft, and its products would gradually abandon its own Symbian system and MeeGo system and switch to the Windows Phone system camp.</p><p>If you used a Nokia mobile phone ten years ago, you would know that the experience of using Symbian system is actually OK, and various applications can be installed and run smoothly. There are more complicated reasons why Saipan was eliminated, regardless of its own quality.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/200cc620aabfa647b483687e480405ba\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the one hand, when it took the lead in the smartphone market in the 2000s, Nokia hoped that its friends could also use Symbian, so that it could be both an athlete and a referee, and easily control the entire track.</p><p>This strategy undoubtedly forces friends to find other partners, such as the open source Android system.</p><p>On the other hand, with the rise of 3G and the popularity of smart phones, the criterion for evaluating the quality of a system lies in whether there are a large number of third-party applications in its ecosystem.<b>For third-party developers, Symbian is an operating system with a high development threshold, which is not as friendly as Android or iOS.</b></p><p>In contrast, whether you are from the Internet<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>, or dealing with third parties on the PC side for more than 20 years<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, all have more experience and methods than Nokia. They also operate excellent app stores such as App Sotre or Google Play respectively, which ensures the income of software developers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01533abf39adcec25da5c7efc127096f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So when Symbian no longer conforms to the historical trend and is related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>When the progress of the joint research and development of MeeGo system was too slow, Nokia made a decision. They found Google and Microsoft successively to test the possibility of cooperation.</p><p>To this day, many people still imagine whether Nokia could have maintained its hegemony until now if it had chosen to use Android.</p><p>But this possibility does not exist because<b>Nokia talked to Google, but the talk collapsed.</b></p><p>Android uses built-in first-party software services, Google's own maps, mailbox, browser, app store and so on. But in the Symbian era, Nokia already had mature first-party applications with highly overlapping functions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04300649baec7bb44307a39bd4fca02e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Android is still very young at this time and has not formed a monopoly. Google never wants Nokia to retain its own software ecosystem.</p><p>For Nokia, without these software value-added services, it will become a pure mobile phone maker, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>, HTC and other younger generations, fight hand-to-hand in the global market by piling up hardware, marketing and price wars. This is also something they can never accept.</p><p>Unlike Google, Microsoft, which has lagged behind the starting line in the era of smartphones, needs the cooperation of giants more. They promised to let Nokia master the common leadership of Windows Phone system.</p><p>As a result, under the leadership of Nokia's then CEO and former Microsoft executive Elop, the marriage between the two was completed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371e232a18ebdaeb8b8934d7f5268ee5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was this decision that started Nokia's nightmare.</p><p>First of all, this cooperation made the subsequent release of the flagship N9 equipped with the MeeGo system tasteless. Although the quality of this mobile phone product is not low, when you know that it is an out-of-print system, no manufacturer will use it again in the future, do you still buy this mobile phone?</p><p>What's even worse is that this series of stupid tricks has caused many Nokia users to switch to Android and Apple camps, and the shipments of Android phones and iPhones have surpassed Nokia for the first time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e1b8ff66a80ac128192614f172acb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Secondly, giving up Symbian, which has been working hard for more than ten years, means that Nokia has completely lost its first-mover advantage in the 2000s. From then on, they need to accompany Microsoft to build the Windows Phone ecosystem almost from scratch.</p><p>On the contrary, Apple and Google have the first-mover advantage at this time. In May 2011, the total number of applications in the iOS ecosystem has exceeded 500,000, and it is not easy to overtake.</p><p>Finally, Microsoft has been spending money on mobile phone systems since the 00s, but it has always failed. In this cooperation, the performance is not very good either.</p><p>The most typical example is WP8, which was released after one year of cooperation. It abandoned the old system kernel and used the new kernel instead, which led to two consequences. First, it made it more difficult for third-party developers to develop, and second, WP7 users could not upgrade to WP8. Successfully offends both developers and users. Who did you make this system for?</p><p>The answer may be made for Win8 on the PC side. The reason why the kernel is replaced is that the mobile system can be coordinated with the newly released Win8 on the PC.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58571774e3850b74e35400d276552c69\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps this is the reason why Microsoft has been unable to handle the mobile phone system. Others are making a small, light and easy-to-use computer, while Microsoft is making a terminal that can be used with their computer system and make phone calls by the way.</p><p>But my lord, times have changed, and the PC side died early in the morning.</p><p><b>So is the combination of Nokia and Microsoft doomed to be a tragedy?</b>Actually, not necessarily. If their cooperation was earlier, maybe Nokia would still have a chance, but their cooperation appeared in 2011, the turbulent year of 2011.</p><p>In February when Nokia announced its cooperation with Microsoft, Samsung released the S2, the second model of the S series, at MWC.</p><p>The S2 is quite similar to the iPhone. Its total sales volume of 40 million units is close to the iPhone 4 released six months ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d86b9c676f2122452752fe33344da3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Half a year later, Samsung released a 5.3-inch Note mobile phone, creating a trend of large-screen mobile phones. Although Jobs once thought that the 3.5-inch small screen was the perfect size, Apple gradually relented and followed suit and launched the large-screen Plus model.</p><p>The rise of Samsung mobile phones has made Apple feel strong discomfort and uneasiness. Two months after the release of S2, Apple launched a lawsuit accusing Samsung of plagiarizing many of its designs. The lawsuit lasted until 2018, and it ended with Samsung's compensation of US $539 million.</p><p>In fact, what was even more uncomfortable at that time was Nokia. Before that, many people still put their hope of blocking the iPhone on Nokia. N97 and N8 would be declared as \"iPhone killers\". But after the success of Samsung's S2 and Note, Nokia was completely squeezed out of the high-end mobile phone market.</p><p>In addition, driven by dual flagships, Samsung has subverted Nokia's shipment hegemony. In 2010, Samsung's smartphone market share was only 7.6%, and its shipments were less than 1/4 of Nokia's. But in 2011, Samsung's shipments surged by 310.5%, winning the smartphone sales champion that year. Nokia's shipments fell by 22.8%, and its ranking dropped from first to third. Most of the lost market share was taken away by Samsung.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1cf6c05eeac0c483951b0f2df69b73\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since then, Nokia has bid farewell to the throne of the market share champion forever.</p><p>However, for it, the mysterious power from the East that year was far more than Samsung. In China, which is about to become the largest market for smartphones in the world, an earth-shaking change is also brewing.</p><p>At the beginning of 2011, Huawei changed its mobile phone business positioning and targeted mid-to-high-end products, with Yu Chengdong in charge. But the rise of Huawei mobile phones will take a few years, and something that directly changed the rules of the game that year happened in August.</p><p>On August 16th, 2011, Lei Jun, wearing a black T-shirt, stood on the stage and showed everyone the first-generation millet with a price of 1999 yuan. The staggering pricing and phenomenal snap-up announced that the era of smartphones in China had begun, and countless players began to flood into this sea area.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef0d5bd5daa1329ce9de5feb76daec15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From then on, relying on China's growing supply chain system, domestic mobile phones will become the main player of global smartphones in less than ten years, eroding the living space of all other overseas mobile phone brands except Apple and Samsung.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/748fc8a8c431f386debb36c5362076b1\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Just eight days after Xiaomi's release, Apple announced that Jobs would step down as CEO and be replaced by Cook. More than a month later, on October 5th, Jobs died, and a generation of superstars fell.</p><p>While everyone expressed their condolences, people began to frantically buy Jobs' official biography, re-read and know the master's life and product philosophy. At least in China, we can responsibly say that from that year, a large number of new Jobs fans and Apple fans were born. Since then, Apple has become a belief.</p><p>Jobs' successor, Cook, was questioned at the beginning of his term of office, but later it turned out that,<b>He is one of the best CEOs of this era.</b></p><p>He reshaped the supply chain management of Apple products and devoted a lot of energy to the Chinese market. For example, actively cooperating with China's policies, establishing a Guizhou data center on the cloud, and removing games without version numbers were completely unimaginable in the Jobs era.</p><p>In addition, compared with Jobs, who has never been to China in his life, Cook has visited China more than ten times and has also been interviewed by He. You know, these used to be Nokia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">Ericsson</a>, Motorola, an old communication giant, is good at. And when Apple can do it, the old guys will lose their final advantage on the consumer side.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129c73acc213b99b0f70d6080a1e9ae2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>During Cook's tenure, he maintained the iPhone's leading position in the high-end machine market, created the revolutionary single product AirPods, and led Apple to become the first company in history with a market value of over one trillion dollars.<b>It is not easy to be a successor to keep the world so successfully.</b></p><p>Standing today, ten years later, we will find that the Nokia mobile phone empire in 2011 is just like the Ming Dynasty in the fifteenth year of Wanli: in that year, the remaining power of the mobile phone industry was still there, but the fate of its destruction could not be reversed. We will also find that it was a year of undercurrents.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d01a89a29c365b755baf594837e41641\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The fate of countless companies was decided ten years ago. All the fruits harvested today come from sowing at that time.</p><p>Reviewing the past and learning the new. Since Huawei was banned by the United States last year, the mobile phone industry is no longer calm. Today, how many undercurrents are surging downstairs? What stories will we witness in the next ten years?</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fCmAAit2FaemZ8alZZ1oPA\">亿欧网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bc0118e35c2c3a2c9e015f33f2d4de8","relate_stocks":{"NOK":"诺基亚","0HAF.UK":"诺基亚"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fCmAAit2FaemZ8alZZ1oPA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164246826","content_text":"2011年的诺基亚手机帝国，就如同万历十五年的大明王朝。\n\n都说诺基亚的手机帝国是轰然倒下的，那诺基亚到底输在了哪一年？\n是iPhone发布的2007年，是手机部门被微软收购的2013年，还是手机业务被彻底剥离出售的2016年？\n在我们看来，更接近真相的答案，或许是2011年。\n2011年开始之前，诺基亚仍是2010年全球智能手机出货量冠军，市占率高达33.1%，塞班系统也仍是智能手机用户中使用率最高的移动端操作系统，最高时达到了34.51%。\n\n但2011年开始后，一切都悄悄改变了。在智能手机行业史中，那是承上启下的一年，其中发生的故事，不仅决定了诺基亚的消亡，也奠定了今天的行业格局。\n一切变化，始自2011年2月。\n当时诺基亚宣布，与微软结成战略同盟，旗下产品将逐步放弃自家的塞班系统和MeeGo系统，转投Windows Phone系统阵营。\n如果你在十年前用过诺基亚手机，就会知道，塞班系统的使用体验其实还行，也能安装各种应用，并能流畅地运行。塞班被淘汰，抛开自身素质方面，还有更复杂的原因。\n\n一方面，00年代在智能手机市场率先起跑时，诺基亚希望友商也能用塞班，这样自己就可以既当运动员又当裁判，轻轻松松控制整条赛道。\n这种策略，无疑是逼着友商去寻找其它合作者，比如，开源的安卓系统。\n另一方面，3G的兴起和智能手机的大量普及，评价一个系统好坏的标准，在于其生态中是否有海量的第三方应用。而塞班对于第三方开发者来说，是一个开发门槛较高的操作系统，并不如安卓或iOS友好。\n对比之下，无论是做互联网出身的谷歌，还是在PC端和第三方打了20多年交道的苹果，都比诺基亚更有经验和办法。他们也分别运营出了App Sotre或者Google Play这样出色的应用商店，让软件开发者的收入得到了很好的保证。\n\n所以当塞班不再符合历史潮流，而与英特尔合作研发的MeeGo系统又进度过慢时，诺基亚做出了决定，他们先后找到了谷歌和微软，试探合作的可能性。\n到今天还有很多人在想象，如果当年诺基亚选择用安卓，是否就能将霸权维持到现在。\n但这种可能性并不存在，因为诺基亚找谷歌谈过，谈崩了。\n安卓系统使用内置第一方软件服务是，谷歌自己的地图、邮箱、浏览器、应用商店等等。但诺基亚在塞班时代，就已经有了功能高度重叠且成熟的第一方应用。\n\n安卓此时还很年轻，并未形成垄断，谷歌绝不希望诺基亚保留他们自己的软件生态。\n而对诺基亚来说，离开这些软件增值服务，自己就将成为纯粹的手机制造商，和三星、HTC等后生晚辈一起，靠堆砌硬件、营销以及价格战，在全球市场上肉搏。这也是他们绝不能接受的。\n与谷歌不同，智能手机时代已经落后在起跑线上的微软则更需要巨头的合作，他们承诺，将让诺基亚掌握Windows Phone系统的共同领导权。\n于是，在诺基亚时任CEO，也是微软前高管埃洛普的主导下，二者的联姻完成了。\n\n就是这个决定，让诺基亚的噩梦开始了。\n首先，这次合作，让随后发布的，搭载MeeGo系统的旗舰机N9成为鸡肋。虽然这手机产品素质并不低，但是当你知道是这绝版系统，以后没厂商会再用了，这手机你还买吗？\n更要命的是，这一连串的昏招，让不少诺基亚用户转投安卓和苹果阵营，此消彼长，安卓机和iPhone的出货量第一次超越了诺基亚。\n\n其次，放弃耕耘十余年的塞班，意味着诺基亚完全丧失了00年代的先发优势，从此他们需要陪着微软，几乎是从零开始建设Windows Phone生态。\n反而，这时拥有先发优势的变成了苹果和谷歌，在2011年的5月，iOS生态中的应用总数已超过50万个，想要反超谈何容易。\n最后，微软从00年代就开始砸钱做手机系统，但一直做得很失败。在这次合作中，表现也不是太好。\n最典型的例子，是在合作一年后发布的WP8，放弃了老的系统内核改用新内核，这导致两个后果，一是让第三方开发者的开发难度变大，二是WP7的用户无法升级到WP8。成功做到了既得罪开发者又得罪用户，请问你这个系统是给谁做的呢？\n答案可能是给PC端Win8做的。之所以换新内核，就是为了移动端系统可以和PC端新发布的Win8能够协调一致。\n\n这或许就是微软一直搞不好手机系统的原因，别人是做一个小巧轻便拿在手里好用的电脑，微软则是做一个能配合他们电脑系统使用顺便能打电话的终端。\n但大人，时代变了，属于PC端的大清早亡了。\n那么诺基亚和微软的结合就注定是一场悲剧吗？其实未必，如果他们的合作更早一些，或许诺基亚还有机会，但他们的合作出现在2011年，风起云涌的2011年。\n就在诺基亚宣布与微软合作的那个2月，三星在MWC展会上发布S系列的第二款机型S2。\nS2与iPhone颇有些神似，它4000万部的总销量，逼近了早半年发布的一代神机iPhone 4。\n\n半年后，三星又发布5.3寸屏的Note手机，开创大屏手机风潮。虽然乔布斯曾认为3.5寸的小屏才是完美尺寸，但苹果后来逐渐服软，也跟风推出了大屏的Plus机型。\n三星手机的崛起，让苹果感到了强烈的不适与不安。S2发布两个月后，苹果便发起诉讼，指控三星抄袭自己的多项设计，这场官司一直拉扯到2018年，才以三星赔偿5.39亿美元才算结束。\n其实当时更难受的是诺基亚，在此之前，很多人还是将阻击iPhone的希望放在诺基亚身上，N97与N8会被宣发说成是“iPhone杀手”。但三星的S2与Note成功之后，诺基亚就被彻底挤出了高端手机市场。\n另外在双旗舰带动下，三星颠覆了诺基亚的出货量霸权。2010年，三星的智能手机市占率只有7.6%，出货量不到诺基亚1/4。但2011年，三星出货量暴增310.5%，拿下当年的智能手机销量冠军。而诺基亚出货量下跌了22.8%，排名从第一跌到了第三，丢掉的市场份额大部分就是被三星抢走。\n\n自此，诺基亚永远告别了市占率冠军的宝座。\n然而对它来说，那一年来自东方的神秘力量，远不止三星一个。在即将成为全球智能手机最大市场的中国大地上，也正酝酿着一场翻天覆地的异变。\n2011年初，华为转变手机业务定位，锁定中高端产品，由余承东负责。但华为手机的崛起还需要几年时间，那一年直接改变游戏规则的事情，发生在8月。\n2011年8月16日，身穿黑T恤的雷军站上台前，向所有人展示1999元的初代小米。令人错愕的定价和现象级的抢购，宣告中国智能手机时代从此拉开序幕，无数玩家开始涌入这片海域。\n\n从此，依托中国日益成长起来的供应链体系，国产手机将在不到十年的时间内，成为全球智能手机主要玩家，侵蚀掉苹果三星之外，其它所有海外手机品牌的生存空间。\n\n而就在小米发布的8天后，苹果宣布，乔布斯将卸任CEO一职，改由库克接任。一个多月后的10月5日，乔布斯逝世，一代巨星陨落。\n所有人表示哀悼的同时，人们开始疯狂购买乔布斯的官方传记，重新阅读、认识这位巨匠的人生和产品理念。至少在中国，我们可以负责任地说，是从那一年开始，诞生了大批新的乔布斯粉丝以及苹果粉丝，自此之后，苹果成为了一种信仰。\n而乔布斯的继任者库克，虽然在上任之初饱受质疑，后来的事实证明，他是这个时代最出色的CEO之一。\n他重塑了苹果产品的供应链管理，将非常大的精力倾注在中国市场。比如积极配合中国政策，建立云上贵州数据中心，下架未获版号的游戏等动作，在乔布斯时代是完全无法想象的。\n另外，比起一生都未到过中国的乔布斯，库克已经造访中国十余次，还曾接受何同学采访。要知道，这些过去都是诺基亚、爱立信、摩托罗拉这种老牌通信巨头所擅长的。而当苹果也能做的时候，老家伙们在消费端也就失去了最后的优势。\n\n库克任期内，保持了iPhone在高端机市场的领先地位，打造了革命性单品AirPods，还带领苹果成为史上首家市值破万亿美元的公司。做接班人守天下能守得如此成功，并不简单。\n站在十年后的今天，我们会发现，2011年的诺基亚手机帝国，就如同万历十五年的大明王朝：那一年，手机界天朝上国余威尚在，可灭亡的命运，却已无法逆转。我们还会发现，那是暗流涌动的一年。\n\n无数公司的命运，在十年前已经早早决定。今天收获的一切果实，都来自那时的播种。\n温故知新。自从去年华为被美国封杀后，手机行业不再风平浪静，今天，又有多少暗流，正在高楼下涌动呢？在未来十年，我们又将见证哪些故事呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NOK":0.9,"0HAF.UK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810401879,"gmtCreate":1629989530391,"gmtModify":1676530195068,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810401879","repostId":"1162324682","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026998898,"gmtCreate":1653310202214,"gmtModify":1676535257544,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026998898","repostId":"2237286827","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237286827","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653301787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237286827?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 18:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Financial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237286827","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"英伟达计划于美东时间5月25日美股收盘后公布截至4月30日的2023财年Q1业绩。在上一季度财报中，英伟达预估本季度（2023财年Q1）营收为81.0亿美元（上下波动2%），高于预期72.2亿美元；预","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>It is planned to announce the Q1 results of fiscal year 2023 ending April 30 after the U.S. stock market closes on May 25, Eastern Time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf0217d1952bf8213351c45058c163\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In the last quarter's financial report,<b>Nvidia estimates this quarter (</b>Q1 FY 2023<b>) Revenue of $8.10 billion (fluctuating 2% up and down), higher than expectations of $7.22 billion; It is estimated that the adjusted gross profit margin in the first quarter is 67.0% (fluctuating 0.5% up and down); Adjusted operating expenses are expected to be $1.60 billion, higher than the expected value of $1.46 billion.</b></p><p>The current market consensus estimate is that the company's Q1 total revenue will be US $8.09 billion and earnings per share (EPS) will be US $1.29, compared with total revenue of US $5.66 billion and earnings per share of US $0.92 in the same period last year.<b>Judging from historical data, Nvidia's total revenue and EPS have exceeded market expectations for 12 consecutive quarters.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72b8471534ea7cbf42bf3e0014e3a9ad\" tg-width=\"1524\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4501b7b3af70f7391780ecbb8d2a4be\" tg-width=\"1507\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>The market value has been halved, can Nvidia \"buy the bottom\"?</b></p><p>Nvidia hit an all-time high of $346.47 in November last year as strong demand and a global chip shortage sparked interest in the stock. Since then, concerns about a slowing economy and the outlook for rate hike have weighed on the stock, which is now down nearly 50% from its all-time high set late last year and 40% this year alone.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/497d3d251c9e30cdcc2f07e12a9e32f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>From</b><b><b>From the perspective of valuation, it is gradually reasonable</b></b></p><p>In terms of valuation, Nvidia still has a \"best-in-class\" premium to its relatively smaller competitors. From the perspective of expected P/E, Nvidia's value is still 30x, compared with its competitor AMD's 22x expected P/E, and other competitors' expectations for P/E are also relatively low.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Is 19x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Is 12x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Is 10x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Is 6x.</p><p>At present, the 1-year valuation of Nvidia's stock has been significantly lower than the average level and is at the lowest level of the 1-year period. Some analysts believe that this shows that,<span style=\"color:rgba(236,31,15,1);\"><b>If the latest results and guidance can match or even exceed market expectations, then this will be an excellent time for long-term investors to buy the company's stock at a reasonable valuation.</b></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207b753f81610ea29fae2accce1ef43d\" tg-width=\"443\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wall Street is bullish, Q1 is stable?</b></p><p>The market's expectations for Nvidia's first fiscal quarter are still high. Analysts expect revenue and profit to increase by more than 40% year-on-year. However, the global chip shortage may affect Nvidia. After all, Nvidia is an upstream Fab (chip designer) and is very dependent on foundry capacity. Last month, Nvidia noted that it was stepping up efforts to replenish its inventory of graphics processing products (GPU products), suggesting that the worst of the company's chip shortages may have passed.</p><p>Some analysts pointed out that although this bodes well for sales growth, the average selling price (ASP) of the company's products may be reduced due to the decline in demand, and may damage the company's profit margin value that has continued to amaze the market in the past. Analysts generally said that,<b>Will be watching closely for signals in the latest quarterly results report regarding any change in the balance of supply and demand for chips.</b></p><p><b>Agency Oppenheimer said that due to strong demand, Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report may be better than expected, and its data center business is expected to grow 75% year-on-year.</b></p><p>Oppenheimer analysts expect that,<span style=\"color:rgba(235,34,19,1);\">Fiscal first-quarter earnings per share and sales will beat Wall Street estimates of $1.30 and $8.1 billion, respectively.</span>The company expects that,<span style=\"color:rgba(242,34,18,1);\">Fiscal second-quarter EPS and sales will beat consensus estimates of $1.36 and $8.4 billion, respectively.</span></p><p>Oppenheimer said supply chain constraints should ease in the second half of the year, which is expected to drive results upside. \"Our long-term thesis remains unchanged as Nvidia's core leading gaming and AI strengths will remain poised for oversized structural growth,\" the analyst said. \"We remain long-term bullish on Nvidia.\"</p><p>Oppenheimer lowered his price target on Nvidia to $300 from $350, while reiterating its Outperform rating. The new target price shows that,<b>Nvidia's stock has a 77% upside.</b></p><p>Of the 44 analysts surveyed by Seeking Alpha, 27 have a \"strong buy\" rating. Another 8 companies marked it as \"buy\". Meanwhile, only one analyst listed Nvidia as a \"sell,\" while another eight listed it as a \"hold.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095d79d9ef83e42e91f4456852ad50b\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>At the end of the article, \"pouring cold water\" on investors who are optimistic about Nvidia,<b>If the market risk appetite continues to decline, coupled with the latest earnings report disappointing the market, it may lead to the breaking of the stock's $165 support level and the possibility of falling further towards $150 or even further towards the May 2021 low.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-23 18:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>It is planned to announce the Q1 results of fiscal year 2023 ending April 30 after the U.S. stock market closes on May 25, Eastern Time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf0217d1952bf8213351c45058c163\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In the last quarter's financial report,<b>Nvidia estimates this quarter (</b>Q1 FY 2023<b>) Revenue of $8.10 billion (fluctuating 2% up and down), higher than expectations of $7.22 billion; It is estimated that the adjusted gross profit margin in the first quarter is 67.0% (fluctuating 0.5% up and down); Adjusted operating expenses are expected to be $1.60 billion, higher than the expected value of $1.46 billion.</b></p><p>The current market consensus estimate is that the company's Q1 total revenue will be US $8.09 billion and earnings per share (EPS) will be US $1.29, compared with total revenue of US $5.66 billion and earnings per share of US $0.92 in the same period last year.<b>Judging from historical data, Nvidia's total revenue and EPS have exceeded market expectations for 12 consecutive quarters.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72b8471534ea7cbf42bf3e0014e3a9ad\" tg-width=\"1524\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4501b7b3af70f7391780ecbb8d2a4be\" tg-width=\"1507\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>The market value has been halved, can Nvidia \"buy the bottom\"?</b></p><p>Nvidia hit an all-time high of $346.47 in November last year as strong demand and a global chip shortage sparked interest in the stock. Since then, concerns about a slowing economy and the outlook for rate hike have weighed on the stock, which is now down nearly 50% from its all-time high set late last year and 40% this year alone.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/497d3d251c9e30cdcc2f07e12a9e32f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>From</b><b><b>From the perspective of valuation, it is gradually reasonable</b></b></p><p>In terms of valuation, Nvidia still has a \"best-in-class\" premium to its relatively smaller competitors. From the perspective of expected P/E, Nvidia's value is still 30x, compared with its competitor AMD's 22x expected P/E, and other competitors' expectations for P/E are also relatively low.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Is 19x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Is 12x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Is 10x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Is 6x.</p><p>At present, the 1-year valuation of Nvidia's stock has been significantly lower than the average level and is at the lowest level of the 1-year period. Some analysts believe that this shows that,<span style=\"color:rgba(236,31,15,1);\"><b>If the latest results and guidance can match or even exceed market expectations, then this will be an excellent time for long-term investors to buy the company's stock at a reasonable valuation.</b></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207b753f81610ea29fae2accce1ef43d\" tg-width=\"443\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wall Street is bullish, Q1 is stable?</b></p><p>The market's expectations for Nvidia's first fiscal quarter are still high. Analysts expect revenue and profit to increase by more than 40% year-on-year. However, the global chip shortage may affect Nvidia. After all, Nvidia is an upstream Fab (chip designer) and is very dependent on foundry capacity. Last month, Nvidia noted that it was stepping up efforts to replenish its inventory of graphics processing products (GPU products), suggesting that the worst of the company's chip shortages may have passed.</p><p>Some analysts pointed out that although this bodes well for sales growth, the average selling price (ASP) of the company's products may be reduced due to the decline in demand, and may damage the company's profit margin value that has continued to amaze the market in the past. Analysts generally said that,<b>Will be watching closely for signals in the latest quarterly results report regarding any change in the balance of supply and demand for chips.</b></p><p><b>Agency Oppenheimer said that due to strong demand, Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report may be better than expected, and its data center business is expected to grow 75% year-on-year.</b></p><p>Oppenheimer analysts expect that,<span style=\"color:rgba(235,34,19,1);\">Fiscal first-quarter earnings per share and sales will beat Wall Street estimates of $1.30 and $8.1 billion, respectively.</span>The company expects that,<span style=\"color:rgba(242,34,18,1);\">Fiscal second-quarter EPS and sales will beat consensus estimates of $1.36 and $8.4 billion, respectively.</span></p><p>Oppenheimer said supply chain constraints should ease in the second half of the year, which is expected to drive results upside. \"Our long-term thesis remains unchanged as Nvidia's core leading gaming and AI strengths will remain poised for oversized structural growth,\" the analyst said. \"We remain long-term bullish on Nvidia.\"</p><p>Oppenheimer lowered his price target on Nvidia to $300 from $350, while reiterating its Outperform rating. The new target price shows that,<b>Nvidia's stock has a 77% upside.</b></p><p>Of the 44 analysts surveyed by Seeking Alpha, 27 have a \"strong buy\" rating. Another 8 companies marked it as \"buy\". Meanwhile, only one analyst listed Nvidia as a \"sell,\" while another eight listed it as a \"hold.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095d79d9ef83e42e91f4456852ad50b\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>At the end of the article, \"pouring cold water\" on investors who are optimistic about Nvidia,<b>If the market risk appetite continues to decline, coupled with the latest earnings report disappointing the market, it may lead to the breaking of the stock's $165 support level and the possibility of falling further towards $150 or even further towards the May 2021 low.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a41d20711c9fa4b2aa3cc62ea62948","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2237286827","content_text":"英伟达计划于美东时间5月25日美股收盘后公布截至4月30日的2023财年Q1业绩。在上一季度财报中，英伟达预估本季度（2023财年Q1）营收为81.0亿美元（上下波动2%），高于预期72.2亿美元；预估第一季度调整后的毛利率为67.0%（上下波动0.5%）；预计调整后的运营支出为16.0亿美元，高于预期值14.6亿美元。目前市场普遍预计，该公司Q1总营收为80.9亿美元，每股收益(EPS)为1.29美元，相比之下，上年同期总营收为56.6亿美元，每股收益为0.92美元。从历史数据来看，英伟达总营收与EPS已连续12个季度超出市场预期。市值腰斩，英伟达能“抄底”吗？英伟达去年11月曾触及346.47美元的历史高位，因需求旺盛和全球芯片短缺引发市场对该股的兴趣。自那以来，对经济放缓和加息前景的担忧一直令股价承压，与去年年底创下的历史高点相比，目前该股已下跌近50%，仅今年以来就下跌了40%。从估值看，逐渐合理估值方面，英伟达仍比规模相对其较小的竞争对手拥有“同类最佳”溢价。从预期市盈率来看，英伟达该项数值仍为30x，相比之下，其竞争对手AMD为22x预期市盈率，其他竞争对手预期市盈率同样相对较低，德州仪器为19x、英特尔为12x、高通为10x，美光科技为6x。目前，英伟达股票1年期估值已明显低于均值水平，处于1年期的最低水平区域。有分析人士认为，这表明，如果最新业绩和业绩指引能够持平甚至超过市场预期，那么这将是长期投资者以合理估值买入该公司股票的绝佳时机。华尔街看多，Q1稳了？市场对英伟达第一财季的预期仍然较高，分析师们预计营收和利润将同比增长40%以上，但是，全球芯片短缺可能将波及英伟达，毕竟英伟达属于上游Fab(芯片设计商)，非常依赖晶圆代工厂的产能。在上个月，英伟达曾指出，其正在加大力度补充图形处理产品(GPU产品)库存，暗示该公司芯片短缺最严重的时期可能已经过去。有分析师指出，虽然这是销售额增长的好兆头，但公司旗下产品的平均销售价格(ASP)可能因需求有所下滑而降低，并可能损害该公司过去持续令市场惊艳的利润率数值。分析师普遍表示，将密切关注最新季度业绩报告中有关任何芯片供需平衡发生变化的信号。机构奥本海默表示，由于需求强劲，英伟达第一季度财报可能好于预期，其数据中心业务预计同比增长75%。奥本海默分析师预计，第一财季每股收益和销售额将分别超过华尔街预期的1.30美元和81亿美元。该公司预计，第二财季每股收益和销售额将分别超过市场普遍预期的 1.36 美元和 84 亿美元。奥本海默表示，供应链限制应该会在今年下半年缓解，预计这将推动业绩上行。“我们的长期论点保持不变，因为英伟达的核心领先的游戏和 AI 优势仍将为超大的结构性增长做好准备，“分析师表示。” 我们仍长期看多英伟达。“奥本海默将英伟达的目标价从 350 美元下调至 300 美元，同时重申其表现优于大盘的评级。新的目标价显示，英伟达的股价有 77%的上行空间。在Seeking Alpha调查的44位分析师中，有27位给出了“强烈买入”的评级。另有8家公司将其标记为“购买”。与此同时，只有一名分析师将英伟达列为“卖出”，另有八名分析师将其列为“持有”。文末，在给看好英伟达的投资者“泼盆冷水”，如果市场风险偏好继续下行，加上最新财报令市场感到失望，可能导致该股165美元支撑水平被打破，并有可能进一步跌向150美元甚至有可能进一步滑向2021年5月低点附近。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026991736,"gmtCreate":1653310153325,"gmtModify":1676535257559,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026991736","repostId":"1101749478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101749478","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653304230,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101749478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 19:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101749478","media":"星图金融研究院","summary":"在刚刚对新增的首套房贷利率下限下调了20个基点后，存量房贷也迎来重大利好。5月20日，央行公布LPR报价，一年期LPR维持不变仍为3.7%。但对于房贷人群影响重大的5年期以上LPR，从4.6%大幅下调","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After just lowering the lower limit of the new first-home loan interest rate by 20 basis points, the existing mortgage loan has also ushered in major benefits. On May 20, the central bank announced the LPR quotation, and the one-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.7%. However, for the LPR of more than 5 years, which has a significant impact on the mortgage crowd, it was significantly reduced by 15 basis points from 4.6% to 4.45%, which greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>The real estate market is related to people's livelihood. Whether it is with or without a house, it is very related to every policy of real estate. Under the impact of the epidemic, there are many stimulus policies, but policies related to real estate can always easily make hot search headlines.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, hundreds of prefectures and cities have introduced various measures including but not limited to adjusting purchase restriction policies, reducing down payment ratios, issuing housing subsidies, revising sales restriction policies, encouraging families with multiple children to buy houses, and providing financial support for housing companies. The policy is not small, but from the real estate sales data, the effect is obviously very limited.</p><p>At the moment when it is constantly emphasized that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\", why have all localities relaxed the property market, and the central bank has also issued a heavy policy of \"lowering interest rates\"? What is the follow-up impact on the stock market, real estate market and individuals?</p><p><b>Why should we reduce both new and existing mortgage interest rates?</b></p><p>After the Politburo meeting in April re-emphasized the confirmation of this year's economic goal of \"steady growth\", how to achieve \"steady growth\" has become a concern for the market.</p><p>From the perspective of the troika of investment, consumption, and net exports, although consumption accounts for the largest proportion, residents' expectations have weakened, and coupled with the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to boost it. In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1% year-on-year. In terms of net exports, the policies of countries such as Europe and the United States have gradually shrunk, representing U.S. consumption expectations. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 years, and external demand is also difficult to continue to grow. In terms of investment, among the three items of infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investment, manufacturing investment accounts for a small proportion and is affected by the current epidemic. Infrastructure and real estate have become an important starting point for \"steady growth\".<b>In order to \"stabilize growth\", under the current economic situation, it is necessary to stabilize real estate and develop infrastructure construction, and these two are precisely the main trends of the capital market in the first quarter.</b></p><p>Real estate has become the shortcoming of the current \"steady growth\". Faced with the weakness of the real estate industry, although since April this year, local governments around the world have begun to relax their real estate policies, by reducing the down payment ratio, providing housing subsidies, and canceling sales restrictions. and other policies to boost real estate sales. However, facts show that small regional stimulus policies are difficult to boost real estate market expectations. At the same time, the recent epidemic has further made it more difficult to restore real estate sales, and national stimulus policies are needed to further exert efforts to break the continuous negative feedback from the market. Judging from the fact that the upstream and downstream real estate contributes nearly 20% of GDP, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the mortgage interest rate of new house purchase demand and reverse residents' house purchase expectations, so as to achieve the goal of \"steady growth\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4d06202d676cd782a5289d856ebe25\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the real estate industry, policy support is also needed to ease the pressure of giving up financing. The thunderstorms of private real estate bonds have put great pressure on financial stability. Although the policy has continuously released good news about private enterprise financing this year, the \"ghost story\" of real estate companies has frightened the capital market, and the path for real estate companies to refinance is almost frozen. By adjusting the mortgage interest rate and guiding residents to buy houses to increase the sales revenue of real estate companies, it can greatly improve the cash flow of real estate companies, and further help improve the financing capabilities of real estate companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94bae5d1a285d153a82286faa69bea6c\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If these are all \"slow factors\", then the cliff-like decline in social financing data in April is the key to trigger the real estate stimulus policy in the national sense. According to the April social financing data released by the central bank on May 13, new credit was \"halved\" year-on-year. In particular, in April, housing loans in the residential sector decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, contributing nearly half of the year-on-year credit decrease. This shows that residents are not only reluctant to buy houses, but even prefer to pay off their mortgages rather than add new loans. The hot search \"I feel relaxed to repay the mortgage\" has proved the psychological expectations and status of the current mortgage crowd to a certain extent. If the current expectation of residents' continuous reduction in leverage cannot be reversed, then the real estate sales data may further deteriorate, which is undoubtedly a great challenge for the \"steady growth\" of the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a94cc6e2c31bd183ae74e4256e4c9f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, after the social financing data was released on May 13, the central bank quickly introduced this year's first national real estate stimulus policy on May 15, that is, lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate. For those who just need no house, it is a real preferential policy. Without considering other constraints, it can indeed stimulate the just-needed purchase demand. Of course, in real life, the mortgage interest rate is not the core contradiction that restricts consumers to buy houses, nor is it the primary consideration for consumers to buy houses. Lowering the mortgage interest rate has a limited effect on reversing expectations. But this at least represents the attitude of supervision towards the current real estate market, which is of great significance to the real estate financial policy at the national level.</p><p>After adjusting the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate, the market actually generally expects that the 5-year LPR will not be further adjusted on the LPR quotation announcement date on May 20. After all, the impact of the previous policy has not yet appeared, and the current monetary policy is still Affected by the internal and external pressures of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States and domestic inflation, the market generally expects the central bank to not further lower the LPR quotation. However, it is precisely for this reason that the 15 basis point reduction of the 5-year LPR greatly exceeded market expectations, and it is also the largest reduction after the LPR reform.</p><p>However, judging from the current market and economic situation, it is necessary to reduce the 5-year LPR. First, it lies in the strength of the policy. As mentioned earlier, the policy of \"lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate\" on May 13th has far greater signal significance than substantive significance. It is more due to the necessity of resolving real estate risks, implementing the easing signal of the Politburo, hedging the \"bad news\" of sluggish financial data, and boosting market expectations. However, the market is generally not optimistic about boosting real estate sales. Since the effectiveness of policies is limited, in order to stabilize real estate and economic growth, stronger policies are bound to be introduced to further reverse expectations.</p><p>The second is that compared with the incremental real estate market, the stock mortgage market is larger and the policy is more leveraged. After the May 3rd policy, many people reported on the Internet that they are now affected by the epidemic, and their income has been greatly reduced. They also need to lower interest rates to ease residents' loan repayment pressure. After the epidemic, more and more people have cut off their loans, and the number of foreclosure houses has increased significantly, all of which to a certain extent indicate the current loan pressure of repayers. At the same time, by lowering the 5-year LPR to alleviate the pressure of residents' interest expenses, it can also stimulate residents' consumption from the side to a certain extent, which is also the proper meaning of steady growth.</p><p><b>What is the follow-up impact?</b></p><p>First, let's talk about the impact on the capital market. Whether it is lowering the lower limit of personal first home loan interest rate by 20BP or lowering the 5-year LPR15BP, these can be said to be heavy real estate stimulus policies in the national sense that are rare after 2016. The signal is of great significance, so it will inevitably cause a huge wave of hype in the capital market. After the policy was released on May 13, the Wind Real Estate Index soared 4.37%, and the narrow trading day opened up 4.3%. However, the capital market has always valued expectations and is most afraid of \"boots landing\". After the LPR was announced on May 20, the real estate index fell by 1.2% instead of rising. For listed real estate companies, the policy goals may have reached an inflection point, but for those listed real estate companies that have already experienced thunderstorms and are about to experience thunderstorms, it is still unknown whether they can persist until the end. Therefore, the value of the current speculation of listed real estate companies does exist. As for the long-term investment value, it needs to be marked with a big question mark. After all, policy is not a panacea, and it is powerless for terminally ill patients.</p><p>The second is the impact on the real estate sales market. At present, real estate sales have experienced negative year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months since July last year, and the decline is still increasing due to the recent impact of the epidemic. According to CRIC statistics, in April 2022, more than 90% of the TOP50 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year decline in full-scale sales in a single month, and the year-on-year decline was basically more than 30%. If the disturbance factors of the epidemic after May can be taken into account, there is a high probability that the real estate sales data will continue to be repaired in the second half of this year. At the same time, according to the historical experience of real estate regulation and control, the improvement of sales data will lag behind the decline of mortgage interest rates by about half a year. However, considering the impact of the epidemic on sales and the normalization of offline consumption activities, the improvement of real estate sales may It will still take a long time.</p><p>Finally, it is the impact on residents who buy new houses and those who are repaying their loans. First of all, for those who just need to buy a house, according to the policies after May 13 and May 20, the interest rate of the first suite can be as low as 4.25%, and the interest rate of the second suite can be as low as 5.05%. For just needs, it should be a very attractive interest rate. As for the questions that many people are concerned about, \"Do you want to get on the bus now, do you want to wait and see\", no one can buy it at an absolute low point. For those who just need it, the room for short-term follow-up LPR reduction is already very small. There is limited room for mortgage interest rates to fall, and it is already a relatively good time. Of course, when it comes to buying a house, different people have different opinions. There is no absolute correctness, but more personal needs.</p><p>Another type of people who are greatly affected are those who are repaying their loans. Generally speaking, banks use the 5-year LPR as the benchmark, add certain points, agree on the interest rate in the contract with the buyer, and adjust it once a year. If the interest rate adjustment date is after May 20th, the adjusted interest rate will be 0.15% lower than before the adjustment. As for many people who agree to adjust interest rates on January 1st of each year, they can only wait until next year to enjoy preferential interest rates. According to the estimate, if the loan is 500,000 yuan and the equal principal and interest are repaid for 30 years, the interest expense can be reduced by about 16,000 yuan in total.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1653304243615","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">星图金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 19:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After just lowering the lower limit of the new first-home loan interest rate by 20 basis points, the existing mortgage loan has also ushered in major benefits. On May 20, the central bank announced the LPR quotation, and the one-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.7%. However, for the LPR of more than 5 years, which has a significant impact on the mortgage crowd, it was significantly reduced by 15 basis points from 4.6% to 4.45%, which greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>The real estate market is related to people's livelihood. Whether it is with or without a house, it is very related to every policy of real estate. Under the impact of the epidemic, there are many stimulus policies, but policies related to real estate can always easily make hot search headlines.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, hundreds of prefectures and cities have introduced various measures including but not limited to adjusting purchase restriction policies, reducing down payment ratios, issuing housing subsidies, revising sales restriction policies, encouraging families with multiple children to buy houses, and providing financial support for housing companies. The policy is not small, but from the real estate sales data, the effect is obviously very limited.</p><p>At the moment when it is constantly emphasized that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\", why have all localities relaxed the property market, and the central bank has also issued a heavy policy of \"lowering interest rates\"? What is the follow-up impact on the stock market, real estate market and individuals?</p><p><b>Why should we reduce both new and existing mortgage interest rates?</b></p><p>After the Politburo meeting in April re-emphasized the confirmation of this year's economic goal of \"steady growth\", how to achieve \"steady growth\" has become a concern for the market.</p><p>From the perspective of the troika of investment, consumption, and net exports, although consumption accounts for the largest proportion, residents' expectations have weakened, and coupled with the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to boost it. In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1% year-on-year. In terms of net exports, the policies of countries such as Europe and the United States have gradually shrunk, representing U.S. consumption expectations. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 years, and external demand is also difficult to continue to grow. In terms of investment, among the three items of infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investment, manufacturing investment accounts for a small proportion and is affected by the current epidemic. Infrastructure and real estate have become an important starting point for \"steady growth\".<b>In order to \"stabilize growth\", under the current economic situation, it is necessary to stabilize real estate and develop infrastructure construction, and these two are precisely the main trends of the capital market in the first quarter.</b></p><p>Real estate has become the shortcoming of the current \"steady growth\". Faced with the weakness of the real estate industry, although since April this year, local governments around the world have begun to relax their real estate policies, by reducing the down payment ratio, providing housing subsidies, and canceling sales restrictions. and other policies to boost real estate sales. However, facts show that small regional stimulus policies are difficult to boost real estate market expectations. At the same time, the recent epidemic has further made it more difficult to restore real estate sales, and national stimulus policies are needed to further exert efforts to break the continuous negative feedback from the market. Judging from the fact that the upstream and downstream real estate contributes nearly 20% of GDP, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the mortgage interest rate of new house purchase demand and reverse residents' house purchase expectations, so as to achieve the goal of \"steady growth\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4d06202d676cd782a5289d856ebe25\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the real estate industry, policy support is also needed to ease the pressure of giving up financing. The thunderstorms of private real estate bonds have put great pressure on financial stability. Although the policy has continuously released good news about private enterprise financing this year, the \"ghost story\" of real estate companies has frightened the capital market, and the path for real estate companies to refinance is almost frozen. By adjusting the mortgage interest rate and guiding residents to buy houses to increase the sales revenue of real estate companies, it can greatly improve the cash flow of real estate companies, and further help improve the financing capabilities of real estate companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94bae5d1a285d153a82286faa69bea6c\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If these are all \"slow factors\", then the cliff-like decline in social financing data in April is the key to trigger the real estate stimulus policy in the national sense. According to the April social financing data released by the central bank on May 13, new credit was \"halved\" year-on-year. In particular, in April, housing loans in the residential sector decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, contributing nearly half of the year-on-year credit decrease. This shows that residents are not only reluctant to buy houses, but even prefer to pay off their mortgages rather than add new loans. The hot search \"I feel relaxed to repay the mortgage\" has proved the psychological expectations and status of the current mortgage crowd to a certain extent. If the current expectation of residents' continuous reduction in leverage cannot be reversed, then the real estate sales data may further deteriorate, which is undoubtedly a great challenge for the \"steady growth\" of the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a94cc6e2c31bd183ae74e4256e4c9f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, after the social financing data was released on May 13, the central bank quickly introduced this year's first national real estate stimulus policy on May 15, that is, lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate. For those who just need no house, it is a real preferential policy. Without considering other constraints, it can indeed stimulate the just-needed purchase demand. Of course, in real life, the mortgage interest rate is not the core contradiction that restricts consumers to buy houses, nor is it the primary consideration for consumers to buy houses. Lowering the mortgage interest rate has a limited effect on reversing expectations. But this at least represents the attitude of supervision towards the current real estate market, which is of great significance to the real estate financial policy at the national level.</p><p>After adjusting the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate, the market actually generally expects that the 5-year LPR will not be further adjusted on the LPR quotation announcement date on May 20. After all, the impact of the previous policy has not yet appeared, and the current monetary policy is still Affected by the internal and external pressures of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States and domestic inflation, the market generally expects the central bank to not further lower the LPR quotation. However, it is precisely for this reason that the 15 basis point reduction of the 5-year LPR greatly exceeded market expectations, and it is also the largest reduction after the LPR reform.</p><p>However, judging from the current market and economic situation, it is necessary to reduce the 5-year LPR. First, it lies in the strength of the policy. As mentioned earlier, the policy of \"lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate\" on May 13th has far greater signal significance than substantive significance. It is more due to the necessity of resolving real estate risks, implementing the easing signal of the Politburo, hedging the \"bad news\" of sluggish financial data, and boosting market expectations. However, the market is generally not optimistic about boosting real estate sales. Since the effectiveness of policies is limited, in order to stabilize real estate and economic growth, stronger policies are bound to be introduced to further reverse expectations.</p><p>The second is that compared with the incremental real estate market, the stock mortgage market is larger and the policy is more leveraged. After the May 3rd policy, many people reported on the Internet that they are now affected by the epidemic, and their income has been greatly reduced. They also need to lower interest rates to ease residents' loan repayment pressure. After the epidemic, more and more people have cut off their loans, and the number of foreclosure houses has increased significantly, all of which to a certain extent indicate the current loan pressure of repayers. At the same time, by lowering the 5-year LPR to alleviate the pressure of residents' interest expenses, it can also stimulate residents' consumption from the side to a certain extent, which is also the proper meaning of steady growth.</p><p><b>What is the follow-up impact?</b></p><p>First, let's talk about the impact on the capital market. Whether it is lowering the lower limit of personal first home loan interest rate by 20BP or lowering the 5-year LPR15BP, these can be said to be heavy real estate stimulus policies in the national sense that are rare after 2016. The signal is of great significance, so it will inevitably cause a huge wave of hype in the capital market. After the policy was released on May 13, the Wind Real Estate Index soared 4.37%, and the narrow trading day opened up 4.3%. However, the capital market has always valued expectations and is most afraid of \"boots landing\". After the LPR was announced on May 20, the real estate index fell by 1.2% instead of rising. For listed real estate companies, the policy goals may have reached an inflection point, but for those listed real estate companies that have already experienced thunderstorms and are about to experience thunderstorms, it is still unknown whether they can persist until the end. Therefore, the value of the current speculation of listed real estate companies does exist. As for the long-term investment value, it needs to be marked with a big question mark. After all, policy is not a panacea, and it is powerless for terminally ill patients.</p><p>The second is the impact on the real estate sales market. At present, real estate sales have experienced negative year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months since July last year, and the decline is still increasing due to the recent impact of the epidemic. According to CRIC statistics, in April 2022, more than 90% of the TOP50 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year decline in full-scale sales in a single month, and the year-on-year decline was basically more than 30%. If the disturbance factors of the epidemic after May can be taken into account, there is a high probability that the real estate sales data will continue to be repaired in the second half of this year. At the same time, according to the historical experience of real estate regulation and control, the improvement of sales data will lag behind the decline of mortgage interest rates by about half a year. However, considering the impact of the epidemic on sales and the normalization of offline consumption activities, the improvement of real estate sales may It will still take a long time.</p><p>Finally, it is the impact on residents who buy new houses and those who are repaying their loans. First of all, for those who just need to buy a house, according to the policies after May 13 and May 20, the interest rate of the first suite can be as low as 4.25%, and the interest rate of the second suite can be as low as 5.05%. For just needs, it should be a very attractive interest rate. As for the questions that many people are concerned about, \"Do you want to get on the bus now, do you want to wait and see\", no one can buy it at an absolute low point. For those who just need it, the room for short-term follow-up LPR reduction is already very small. There is limited room for mortgage interest rates to fall, and it is already a relatively good time. Of course, when it comes to buying a house, different people have different opinions. There is no absolute correctness, but more personal needs.</p><p>Another type of people who are greatly affected are those who are repaying their loans. Generally speaking, banks use the 5-year LPR as the benchmark, add certain points, agree on the interest rate in the contract with the buyer, and adjust it once a year. If the interest rate adjustment date is after May 20th, the adjusted interest rate will be 0.15% lower than before the adjustment. As for many people who agree to adjust interest rates on January 1st of each year, they can only wait until next year to enjoy preferential interest rates. According to the estimate, if the loan is 500,000 yuan and the equal principal and interest are repaid for 30 years, the interest expense can be reduced by about 16,000 yuan in total.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ytImsNQymGtnI0HjrLsPcA\">星图金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ytImsNQymGtnI0HjrLsPcA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101749478","content_text":"在刚刚对新增的首套房贷利率下限下调了20个基点后，存量房贷也迎来重大利好。5月20日，央行公布LPR报价，一年期LPR维持不变仍为3.7%。但对于房贷人群影响重大的5年期以上LPR，从4.6%大幅下调15个基点至4.45%，大超市场预期。房地产市场事关民生，无论是有房的还是没房的，都非常关房地产的每一项政策。疫情冲击之下，刺激政策繁多，但事关房地产的政策总是能够轻而易举地冲上热搜头条。今年以来，有上百个地市出台了各种包括但不限于调整限购政策、降低首付比例、发放购房补贴、限售政策修改、鼓励多孩家庭购房、为房企提供资金支持等方面。政策力度不可谓不大，但从房地产销售数据来看，效果显然十分有限。在不断强调“房住不炒”的当下，为何各地纷纷放松楼市，央行也出了“下调利率”这一重磅政策？后续对于股市、房地产市场以及个人来说，又有何影响呢？为何要对新增及存量房贷利率双降？在4月政治局会议再次强调确认今年“稳增长”的经济目标后，怎样才能做到“稳增长”成为市场担忧的问题。分别从投资、消费、净出口这三驾马车来看，消费虽然占比最大，但居民预期转弱，再叠加疫情的影响，难以提振，4月社会消费品零售总额更是同比下降11.1%。净出口方面，欧美等国家政策逐渐收缩，代表美国消费预期密歇根大学消费者信心指数降至10年多来最低水平，外需也同样难以继续增长。而投资方面，在基建、房地产、制造业投资三项中，制造业投资占比小且受当前疫情影响，基建与房地产就成为“稳增长”的重要抓手。要想“稳增长”，在当前的经济形势下，就必须要稳住房地产，发力基建，而这二者，也恰恰是一季度资本市场的主线行情。房地产已经成了当前“稳增长”的短板，面对地产行业的弱势，虽然从今年4月以来，各地的地方政府已纷纷开始放松地产政策，通过降低首付比例、提供购房补贴、取消限售等政策来提振地产销售。但事实表明，区域性小幅度的刺激政策难以提振房地产市场预期。同时，近期的疫情又进一步加大房地产销售修复的难度，需要全国性的刺激政策进一步发力来打破市场不断的负反馈。以房地产上下游贡献近20%的GDP来看，适当地降低新增购房需求的房贷利率，扭转居民购房预期，从而实现“稳增长”的目标，十分有必要。而对于房地产行业而言，缓解放弃融资压力也同样需要政策支持。民营房企债券的纷纷暴雷，给金融稳定带来了极大的压力。虽然今年以来政策不断释放民企融资的利好消息，但房企的“鬼故事”已经吓坏了资本市场，房企再融资的路径几乎冰封。通过调整房贷利率，引导居民购房增长房企销售收入，能够很好地改善房企的现金流，更进一步也有利于房企融资能力的改善。如果说这些都是“慢因素”，那四月社融数据的断崖式下跌，则是触发全国意义上的地产刺激政策的按键。根据央行在5月13日公布的4月社融数据，新增信贷同比“腰斩”，尤其是4月居民部门住房贷款减少了605亿元，同比少增4022亿元，贡献近半的信贷同比降幅。这表明，居民不仅不愿意买房子了，甚至宁愿还掉房贷，也不愿意新增贷款。冲上热搜的“还房贷觉得一身轻松”一定程度上已经证明了当前房贷人群的心理预期和状态。如果不能扭转当前这种居民不断降杠杆的预期，那么房地产销售数据可能会进一步恶化，这对于经济的“稳增长”而言，毫无疑问是极大的挑战。因此，在5月13日公布社融数据后，央行很快的就在5月15日出台了今年首个全国意义的上的房地产刺激政策，即降低首套住房按揭贷款利率下限，这对于刚需无房者而言，是一个确确实实的优惠政策。在不考虑其他约束条件下，也确实能够刺激刚需的购买需求。当然，在现实生活中，房贷利率并非约束消费者购房的核心矛盾，也非消费者购房决策的首要考虑因素，下调房贷利率对扭转预期的作用有限。但这最起码代表了监管对当前房地产市场呵护的态度，对于全国层面对房地产金融政策来说，意义重大。在调整了首套住房按揭贷款利率下限，市场其实普遍预期在5月20日的LPR报价公布日，5年期LPR不会做进一步调整，毕竟前一个政策的影响尚未显现，而且当前货币政策还受到中美利差倒挂与国内通胀的内外部压力，因此市场普遍预计央行不会进一步的下调LPR的报价。不过也正是因此，本次5年期LPR15个基点的下调幅度大超市场预期，同时也是LPR改革后最大降幅。不过如果从当前市场与经济的情况看，5年期LPR的调降又有必要性。其一在于政策力度，如前所述，5月13日“降低首套住房按揭贷款利率下限”的政策，信号意义要远大于实质意义，更多的是出于化解房地产风险的必要性、落实政治局宽松信号、对冲金融数据低迷的“坏消息”、提振市场预期等，但对于提振房地产销售方面，市场普遍并不报以乐观态度，毕竟对于一个真正有能力的刚需购房者而言，并不会因为房贷利率降低或提升了0.2%就因此而决定买或不买。既然政策有效性有限，为了稳房地产、稳经济增长，势必就需要更强力的政策出台，更进一步地扭转预期。其二在于相对于房地产增量市场而言，存量房贷的市场更大，政策的杠杆性更强。很多人在5月3日政策后，在网上反映现在受到疫情的影响，收入大幅度降低，也需要降低利率缓解居民的还贷压力。疫情后断供者越来越多、法拍房数量大幅度增长，这些都一定程度上表明了当前还款人的供贷压力。同时，通过调降5年期LPR缓解居民的利息支出压力，也能一定程度上从侧面刺激居民消费，这也是稳增长中的应有之意。后续有何影响？首先说对于资本市场的影响。无论是下调个人首套住房贷款利率下限20BP，还是下调5年期LPR15BP，这些可以说是在2016年之后鲜有的全国意义上的重磅房地产刺激政策，信号意义巨大，所以必然会引起资本市场一波巨大的炒作。5月13日政策发布后，万得房地产指数暴涨4.37%，狭义交易日又开盘大涨4.3%。但资本市场向来看重预期，最怕“靴子落地”。5月20日公布LPR后，房地产指数不涨反跌1.2%。对于房地产上市公司而言，政策目标或许已经来到了拐点，但对于那些已经暴雷和马上暴雷的房地产上市企业而言，能否坚持到最后，仍然是尚未可知。因此当前上市房企炒作的价值确实有，至于长期投资价值，则需要打上一个大大的问号。毕竟政策不是万能药，对于病入膏肓的病人来说，也是无能为力的。其次是对于房地产销售市场的影响。目前来看，房地产销售自去年7月以来已连续10个月同比负增长，而且近期受到疫情的影响，跌幅仍在加大。根据克而瑞统计，2022年4月，TOP50房企中超9成房企单月全口径销售额同比下滑，同比降幅基本在30%以上。如果可考虑到5月后疫情的扰动因素修复，今年下半年大概率房地产销售数据会持续的修复。同时，根据历史上房地产调控的经验来看，销售数据的改善会滞后于房贷利率下降约半年左右，但同时考虑到疫情对于销售的影响，以及线下消费活动的正常化，房地产销售的改善可能仍需要不短的时日。最后是对于居民新购房以及正在还贷款的人的影响。先说对于刚需购房者，按照5月13日和5月20日之后的政策来看，首套房的利率最低可以到4.25%，二套房利率最低可以达到5.05%。对于刚需来说，应该是一个非常具有吸引力的利率。至于说很多人关心的“现在要不要上车，要不要等等看”这类的问题，没有人能够买在绝对的低点，对于刚需者而言，短期后续LPR调降的空间已经非常小，房贷利率下降的空间有限，已经是一个相对不错的时点。当然，对于买房这件事，仁者见仁智者见智，没有绝对的正确，更多是个人的需求。另一类受到比较大影响的则是正在还贷的人群。一般来说，银行都是以5年期LPR作为基准，并进行一定的加点，与购房者在合同中约定利率，并每年调整一次。如果利率调整日期在5月20日之后的，那调整后的利率将比调整前低0.15%。至于很多约定在每年1月1日调整利率的，就只能等待到明年后才能享受到优惠的利率。而按照估算，如果贷款50万元，等额本息方式还款30年，大约一共能够减少利息支出1.6万元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}