猫咪国王 personal page - To The Moon

猫咪国王

猫咪国王

投资理财爱好者

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2022-07-31

$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$good

2022-05-21

$维视图像(MVIS)$？？

2022-05-27

$维视图像(MVIS)$nice？

2022-09-20

$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$good！

2022-07-30

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$start to fly

2022-09-08

$百度(BIDU)$good

2022-07-15

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$hope

2022-04-20

$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$good？

2022-09-16

$英伟达(NVDA)$ok

2022-08-04

$Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Co(TNXP)$good？

2022-08-03

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$good

2022-07-30

$GeoVax Labs Inc(GOVX)$in season

2022-07-19

$富途控股(FUTU)$good

2022-07-06

$英伟达(NVDA)$Good!

2022-06-22

$花旗(C)$oh！No！

2022-06-09

$维视图像(MVIS)$ok？

2022-06-08

$宝尊电商(BZUN)$💦💦💦💦

2022-05-27

$富途控股(FUTU)$finally

2023-04-19

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2023-04-03

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21:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"新能源车股持续下跌，小鹏汽车跌超10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174181535","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月19日，新能源车股持续下跌，小鹏汽车跌超10%，蔚来跌超6%，Rivian、福特汽车、理想汽车跌超4%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月19日，新能源车股持续下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超6%，Rivian、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌超4%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20333f03952676434d41edaaaa5b10e9\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>新能源车股持续下跌，小鹏汽车跌超10%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新能源车股持续下跌，小鹏汽车跌超10%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-19 21:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月19日，新能源车股持续下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超6%，Rivian、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌超4%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20333f03952676434d41edaaaa5b10e9\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b6fbfe38edb1202883a645549da7f6","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK1575":"同股不同权","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK1587":"次新股","NIO":"蔚来","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1539":"汽车股","BK1119":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174181535","content_text":"4月19日，新能源车股持续下跌，小鹏汽车跌超10%，蔚来跌超6%，Rivian、福特汽车、理想汽车跌超4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941495949,"gmtCreate":1680514299881,"gmtModify":1680514303466,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6443a267db2c953f9d60a08f6e734075","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941495949","repostId":"1178785059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178785059","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1679984289,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178785059?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-28 14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权大单 | 银行股大反攻，多空双方出现明显分歧！做多资金押注，嘉年华邮轮能否不负众望？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178785059","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美东时间3月27日，期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。特斯拉、苹果等明星股看涨期权的成交量特别高；做多资金押注，嘉年华邮轮能否不负众望？一、市场概览美东时","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：美东时间3月27日，期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>等明星股看涨期权的成交量特别高；做多资金押注，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>能否不负众望？</b></blockquote><p><b>一、市场概览</b></p><p>美东时间3月27日，美股周一收盘涨跌不一，银行股普涨。第一公民银行收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>全部存贷款、以及美国当局正考虑帮助<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>强化资产负债表等消息，提振了市场情绪。但大盘整体仍呈现不温不火的状态。这也反映出银行业危机过后，市场整体缺乏方向的迹象。截止收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.6%，纳斯达克指数跌0.47%，标普500指数涨0.16%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6039ae90374132fafc810a91f224e3eb\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><p>周一，期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0369686ff54cd71e80033330dc6cfd96\" tg-width=\"1786\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p>标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交785万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比53%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10baa7de6fbb69852ae21f65aacb209a\" tg-width=\"1615\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>二、期权成交总量TOP10</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdaa6d1299aa61d03a2f31ea6615449\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><p><b>特斯拉</b>周一涨0.74%，报191,81美元。期权合约成交128.6万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的61%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为200美元<b>看涨期权</b>的成交量特别高，成交量为106,046张。</p><p>消息方面：特斯拉柏林工厂提前三个月突破关键产量节点，周产量突破5000辆。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c0c1cffb8631554864e2e19e61aee6\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>苹果</b>周一跌1.23%，报158,28美元。期权合约成交72.27万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的51%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为160美元<b>看涨期权</b>的成交量特别高，成交量为67,816张。</p><p>消息方面：苹果低调扩充“AI军火库” 静悄悄收购视频AI创业公司WaveOne。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23602c67a8979722704d6166a7f85d2\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>周一涨近5%</b>，报28,49美元。期权合约成交50.35万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的51%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为29美元<b>看涨期权</b>的成交量特别高，成交量为22,607张。这意味着在期权市场中，投资者押注该股短线反弹或接近见顶。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b34d17be11e67e68cc456b370effe6c\" tg-width=\"1646\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>三、异动观察</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35d7473af7e1e73b0dd2982d48d5172\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>硅谷银行风波逐渐平息，以及美国当局正考虑帮助<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>强化资产负债表等消息提振。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a></b>周一涨近12%，报13.82美元。由于该股近期振幅较大，在期权市场中，多空双方出现明显分歧！有押注3月31日到期行权价仅为1美元<b>看跌期权，</b>也有押注3月31日到期行权价为60美元<b>看涨期权</b>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c800f98afd08a65e41e33a58b2a8a8b1\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>嘉年华邮轮</b>周一跌超4%，报8.79美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为10美元<b>看涨期权</b>的成交量特别高，成交量为20,396张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018470ff6f9341dfd4725a3715cefc9d\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a></b>周一上涨3%，报54.86美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为55美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为7,469张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0851d46b18fc6864c4ec52f9f6474\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权大单 | 银行股大反攻，多空双方出现明显分歧！做多资金押注，嘉年华邮轮能否不负众望？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权大单 | 银行股大反攻，多空双方出现明显分歧！做多资金押注，嘉年华邮轮能否不负众望？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-28 14:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：美东时间3月27日，期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>等明星股看涨期权的成交量特别高；做多资金押注，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>能否不负众望？</b></blockquote><p><b>一、市场概览</b></p><p>美东时间3月27日，美股周一收盘涨跌不一，银行股普涨。第一公民银行收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>全部存贷款、以及美国当局正考虑帮助<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>强化资产负债表等消息，提振了市场情绪。但大盘整体仍呈现不温不火的状态。这也反映出银行业危机过后，市场整体缺乏方向的迹象。截止收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.6%，纳斯达克指数跌0.47%，标普500指数涨0.16%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6039ae90374132fafc810a91f224e3eb\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><p>周一，期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0369686ff54cd71e80033330dc6cfd96\" tg-width=\"1786\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p>标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交785万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比53%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10baa7de6fbb69852ae21f65aacb209a\" tg-width=\"1615\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>二、期权成交总量TOP10</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdaa6d1299aa61d03a2f31ea6615449\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><p><b>特斯拉</b>周一涨0.74%，报191,81美元。期权合约成交128.6万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的61%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为200美元<b>看涨期权</b>的成交量特别高，成交量为106,046张。</p><p>消息方面：特斯拉柏林工厂提前三个月突破关键产量节点，周产量突破5000辆。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c0c1cffb8631554864e2e19e61aee6\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>苹果</b>周一跌1.23%，报158,28美元。期权合约成交72.27万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的51%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为160美元<b>看涨期权</b>的成交量特别高，成交量为67,816张。</p><p>消息方面：苹果低调扩充“AI军火库” 静悄悄收购视频AI创业公司WaveOne。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23602c67a8979722704d6166a7f85d2\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>周一涨近5%</b>，报28,49美元。期权合约成交50.35万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的51%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为29美元<b>看涨期权</b>的成交量特别高，成交量为22,607张。这意味着在期权市场中，投资者押注该股短线反弹或接近见顶。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b34d17be11e67e68cc456b370effe6c\" tg-width=\"1646\" tg-height=\"266\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>三、异动观察</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35d7473af7e1e73b0dd2982d48d5172\" tg-width=\"1715\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>硅谷银行风波逐渐平息，以及美国当局正考虑帮助<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>强化资产负债表等消息提振。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a></b>周一涨近12%，报13.82美元。由于该股近期振幅较大，在期权市场中，多空双方出现明显分歧！有押注3月31日到期行权价仅为1美元<b>看跌期权，</b>也有押注3月31日到期行权价为60美元<b>看涨期权</b>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c800f98afd08a65e41e33a58b2a8a8b1\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b>嘉年华邮轮</b>周一跌超4%，报8.79美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为10美元<b>看涨期权</b>的成交量特别高，成交量为20,396张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/018470ff6f9341dfd4725a3715cefc9d\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a></b>周一上涨3%，报54.86美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为55美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为7,469张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d0851d46b18fc6864c4ec52f9f6474\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","BK4588":"碎股","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","BK4211":"区域性银行","AXP":"美国运通","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","SCHW":"嘉信理财","BK4517":"邮轮概念","AAPL":"苹果","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","BK4589":"SVB概念","SIVBQ":"硅谷银行","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178785059","content_text":"摘要：美东时间3月27日，期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。特斯拉、苹果等明星股看涨期权的成交量特别高；做多资金押注，嘉年华邮轮能否不负众望？一、市场概览美东时间3月27日，美股周一收盘涨跌不一，银行股普涨。第一公民银行收购硅谷银行全部存贷款、以及美国当局正考虑帮助第一共和银行强化资产负债表等消息，提振了市场情绪。但大盘整体仍呈现不温不火的状态。这也反映出银行业危机过后，市场整体缺乏方向的迹象。截止收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.6%，纳斯达克指数跌0.47%，标普500指数涨0.16%。数据来源：老虎国际周一，期权市场总成交量达31,161,419.张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。数据来源：Market Chameleon标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交785万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比53%。数据来源：Market Chameleon二、期权成交总量TOP10数据来源：老虎国际特斯拉周一涨0.74%，报191,81美元。期权合约成交128.6万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的61%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为200美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为106,046张。消息方面：特斯拉柏林工厂提前三个月突破关键产量节点，周产量突破5000辆。数据来源：Market Chameleon苹果周一跌1.23%，报158,28美元。期权合约成交72.27万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的51%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为160美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为67,816张。消息方面：苹果低调扩充“AI军火库” 静悄悄收购视频AI创业公司WaveOne。数据来源：Market Chameleon美国银行周一涨近5%，报28,49美元。期权合约成交50.35万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的51%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为29美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为22,607张。这意味着在期权市场中，投资者押注该股短线反弹或接近见顶。数据来源：Market Chameleon三、异动观察数据来源：Market Chameleon硅谷银行风波逐渐平息，以及美国当局正考虑帮助第一共和银行强化资产负债表等消息提振。第一共和银行周一涨近12%，报13.82美元。由于该股近期振幅较大，在期权市场中，多空双方出现明显分歧！有押注3月31日到期行权价仅为1美元看跌期权，也有押注3月31日到期行权价为60美元看涨期权。数据来源：Market Chameleon嘉年华邮轮周一跌超4%，报8.79美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为10美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为20,396张。数据来源：Market Chameleon嘉信理财周一上涨3%，报54.86美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为55美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为7,469张。数据来源：Market Chameleon","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941495092,"gmtCreate":1680514289516,"gmtModify":1680514293011,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6443a267db2c953f9d60a08f6e734075","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941495092","repostId":"1130992032","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130992032","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1680228026,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130992032?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-31 10:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权大单 | 股价闻声而动！一夜之间，阿里、京东大消息全来了；“大空头”原型认错！承认卖出建议错误","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130992032","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美东时间3月30日，期权市场总成交量达36,120,280张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；“分拆上市”概念彻底火了，阿里、京东股价闻声而动！一、市场概览美东时间3月30日，美股周四录得连续第二","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>摘要：美东时间3月30日，期权市场总成交量达36,120,280张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；“分拆上市”概念彻底火了，阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>股价闻声而动！</strong></blockquote><p><strong>一、市场概览</strong></p><p>美东时间3月30日，美股周四录得连续第二个交易日收涨，标普500指数创三周新高。波士顿联储主席科林斯称美联储需要通过进一步加息来遏制通胀。此外另有多名美联储官员继续强调接下来仍需要加息，美国市场周四仍延续了轻快上涨的步伐，三大指数悉数收涨。截止收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.43%，纳斯达克指数涨0.73%，标普500指数涨0.57%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f01b89beefca587024b89c13339d9e2\" alt=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"144\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><p><strong>“大空头”原型认错！承认“卖出”美股建议错误</strong></p><p>周四，“大空头”、Scion资产管理公司创始人Michael Burry在其推特账户上承认他错判了市场形势。Burry曾在美联储2月会议前建议“卖出”股票。如今他说，这个建议错了。现在，他对自己的推特粉丝说这个建议错了，并恭喜逢低买入者将股市推高到了超过他预期的水平。Burry还称，从1920年代至今，当前市场上的逢低买入（BTFD）一代，是前所未有的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c0c23f41b40635eee2a892f3c7bf40\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"436\"/></p><p>周四，期权市场总成交量达36,120,280张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d86e953b8204c1d0d36fc112f7b0934\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1804\" tg-height=\"393\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p>标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交835.4万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比57%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39e287d1529d2a5e69c021ef1b8dc442\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1616\" tg-height=\"407\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong>二、期权成交总量TOP10</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055f3bb0ebada1113a364b8d5bd3e38d\" alt=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1432\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a></strong>周四涨超3%，报103.38美元。期权合约成交66.77万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的75%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为105美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为41,107张。</p><blockquote>昨日晚间，市场消息称：阿里旗下价值200亿美元的物流部门据说正在为香港的IPO做准备。对此，菜鸟回应称，目前尚无明确规划和时间表。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b81d13bf74cc6849224e7e3a9c10fb2\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1643\" tg-height=\"269\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></strong>周四涨超1%，报273.83美元。期权合约成交66.14万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的45%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为275美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为60,607张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb73fec328fbc79e18d71fcd050f746\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1646\" tg-height=\"269\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><blockquote><strong>消息方面：近期更多投行将英伟达评级调至“买入”！</strong>随着聊天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>ChatGPT爆火全球，美股一众相关公司的股票集体上涨，其背后核心的AI算力“大脑”英伟达的股价更是“一骑绝尘”。根据媒体汇编的数据，英伟达的预期市盈率已经达到了惊人的56倍。但这并没有吓退华尔街的分析师们，媒体“市场观察”数据显示，近期更多投行将英伟达评级调至“买入”。两周前，知名投行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>就将英伟达的股票评级由“持股”上调至“买入”，目标价也由255美元上调至304美元。</blockquote><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a></strong>周四涨近2%，报32.09美元。期权合约成交49.04万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的62%。2024年1月19日到期行权价为50美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为27,852张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8acbaa146915bcfb5b72710b170484\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"267\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong>三、异动观察</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58a384e80789925095b8987e1c82d4a\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1713\" tg-height=\"589\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong>京东加入“分拆上市”概念，股价涨近8%，</strong>报44.40美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为45美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为15,886张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb6ceaae0cf59906b4b817c7b9c9ac5\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1645\" tg-height=\"268\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><blockquote>昨日晚间，京东集团发布公告，拟分拆京东产发于香港主板独立上市。</blockquote><blockquote>京东产发是京东集团旗下唯一仓储物流设施开发运营管理子集团，持有京东集团旗下自建全部仓储物流设施项目。截至公告日，京东集团通过全资子公司持有京东产发已发行股本总额的约74.96%。分拆完成后，京东集团将继续间接持有京东产发50%以上的股权，因此，京东产发将仍为京东集团子公司。京东集团将继续经营（其中包括）在线零售和电子商务平台业务。</blockquote><blockquote>随后，据港交所文件，京东工业股份有限公司、京东<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>产发股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书。</blockquote><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a></strong>周四下挫4%，报13.69美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为13美元<strong>看跌期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为11,590张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ab23f80891ffdf97e2e595932f625c\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1646\" tg-height=\"270\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权大单 | 股价闻声而动！一夜之间，阿里、京东大消息全来了；“大空头”原型认错！承认卖出建议错误</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权大单 | 股价闻声而动！一夜之间，阿里、京东大消息全来了；“大空头”原型认错！承认卖出建议错误\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-31 10:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>摘要：美东时间3月30日，期权市场总成交量达36,120,280张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；“分拆上市”概念彻底火了，阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>股价闻声而动！</strong></blockquote><p><strong>一、市场概览</strong></p><p>美东时间3月30日，美股周四录得连续第二个交易日收涨，标普500指数创三周新高。波士顿联储主席科林斯称美联储需要通过进一步加息来遏制通胀。此外另有多名美联储官员继续强调接下来仍需要加息，美国市场周四仍延续了轻快上涨的步伐，三大指数悉数收涨。截止收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.43%，纳斯达克指数涨0.73%，标普500指数涨0.57%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f01b89beefca587024b89c13339d9e2\" alt=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"144\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><p><strong>“大空头”原型认错！承认“卖出”美股建议错误</strong></p><p>周四，“大空头”、Scion资产管理公司创始人Michael Burry在其推特账户上承认他错判了市场形势。Burry曾在美联储2月会议前建议“卖出”股票。如今他说，这个建议错了。现在，他对自己的推特粉丝说这个建议错了，并恭喜逢低买入者将股市推高到了超过他预期的水平。Burry还称，从1920年代至今，当前市场上的逢低买入（BTFD）一代，是前所未有的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c0c23f41b40635eee2a892f3c7bf40\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"436\"/></p><p>周四，期权市场总成交量达36,120,280张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d86e953b8204c1d0d36fc112f7b0934\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1804\" tg-height=\"393\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p>标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交835.4万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比57%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39e287d1529d2a5e69c021ef1b8dc442\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1616\" tg-height=\"407\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong>二、期权成交总量TOP10</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055f3bb0ebada1113a364b8d5bd3e38d\" alt=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1432\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a></strong>周四涨超3%，报103.38美元。期权合约成交66.77万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的75%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为105美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为41,107张。</p><blockquote>昨日晚间，市场消息称：阿里旗下价值200亿美元的物流部门据说正在为香港的IPO做准备。对此，菜鸟回应称，目前尚无明确规划和时间表。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b81d13bf74cc6849224e7e3a9c10fb2\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1643\" tg-height=\"269\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></strong>周四涨超1%，报273.83美元。期权合约成交66.14万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的45%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为275美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为60,607张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb73fec328fbc79e18d71fcd050f746\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1646\" tg-height=\"269\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><blockquote><strong>消息方面：近期更多投行将英伟达评级调至“买入”！</strong>随着聊天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>ChatGPT爆火全球，美股一众相关公司的股票集体上涨，其背后核心的AI算力“大脑”英伟达的股价更是“一骑绝尘”。根据媒体汇编的数据，英伟达的预期市盈率已经达到了惊人的56倍。但这并没有吓退华尔街的分析师们，媒体“市场观察”数据显示，近期更多投行将英伟达评级调至“买入”。两周前，知名投行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>就将英伟达的股票评级由“持股”上调至“买入”，目标价也由255美元上调至304美元。</blockquote><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a></strong>周四涨近2%，报32.09美元。期权合约成交49.04万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的62%。2024年1月19日到期行权价为50美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为27,852张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8acbaa146915bcfb5b72710b170484\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1647\" tg-height=\"267\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong>三、异动观察</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58a384e80789925095b8987e1c82d4a\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1713\" tg-height=\"589\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong>京东加入“分拆上市”概念，股价涨近8%，</strong>报44.40美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为45美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为15,886张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb6ceaae0cf59906b4b817c7b9c9ac5\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1645\" tg-height=\"268\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><blockquote>昨日晚间，京东集团发布公告，拟分拆京东产发于香港主板独立上市。</blockquote><blockquote>京东产发是京东集团旗下唯一仓储物流设施开发运营管理子集团，持有京东集团旗下自建全部仓储物流设施项目。截至公告日，京东集团通过全资子公司持有京东产发已发行股本总额的约74.96%。分拆完成后，京东集团将继续间接持有京东产发50%以上的股权，因此，京东产发将仍为京东集团子公司。京东集团将继续经营（其中包括）在线零售和电子商务平台业务。</blockquote><blockquote>随后，据港交所文件，京东工业股份有限公司、京东<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>产发股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书。</blockquote><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a></strong>周四下挫4%，报13.69美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为13美元<strong>看跌期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为11,590张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ab23f80891ffdf97e2e595932f625c\" alt=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1646\" tg-height=\"270\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU1282649067.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC A","09618":"京东集团-SW","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SG9999001226.SGD":"UNITED SUSTAINABLE ASIA TOP 50 \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0029875118.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","BABA":"阿里巴巴","INTC":"英特尔","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK1575":"同股不同权","LU1366334578.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","JD":"京东","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0320764755.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Asian Growth A Acc SGD","LU0791591158.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","LU0588545904.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income ASDM SGD","BK4558":"双十一","LU0588545730.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"ADM\" (USD) INC","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I Acc","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130992032","content_text":"摘要：美东时间3月30日，期权市场总成交量达36,120,280张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；“分拆上市”概念彻底火了，阿里、京东股价闻声而动！一、市场概览美东时间3月30日，美股周四录得连续第二个交易日收涨，标普500指数创三周新高。波士顿联储主席科林斯称美联储需要通过进一步加息来遏制通胀。此外另有多名美联储官员继续强调接下来仍需要加息，美国市场周四仍延续了轻快上涨的步伐，三大指数悉数收涨。截止收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.43%，纳斯达克指数涨0.73%，标普500指数涨0.57%。数据来源：老虎国际“大空头”原型认错！承认“卖出”美股建议错误周四，“大空头”、Scion资产管理公司创始人Michael Burry在其推特账户上承认他错判了市场形势。Burry曾在美联储2月会议前建议“卖出”股票。如今他说，这个建议错了。现在，他对自己的推特粉丝说这个建议错了，并恭喜逢低买入者将股市推高到了超过他预期的水平。Burry还称，从1920年代至今，当前市场上的逢低买入（BTFD）一代，是前所未有的。周四，期权市场总成交量达36,120,280张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。数据来源：Market Chameleon标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交835.4万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比57%。数据来源：Market Chameleon二、期权成交总量TOP10数据来源：老虎国际阿里巴巴周四涨超3%，报103.38美元。期权合约成交66.77万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的75%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为105美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为41,107张。昨日晚间，市场消息称：阿里旗下价值200亿美元的物流部门据说正在为香港的IPO做准备。对此，菜鸟回应称，目前尚无明确规划和时间表。数据来源：Market Chameleon英伟达周四涨超1%，报273.83美元。期权合约成交66.14万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的45%。2023年3月31日到期行权价为275美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为60,607张。数据来源：Market Chameleon消息方面：近期更多投行将英伟达评级调至“买入”！随着聊天机器人ChatGPT爆火全球，美股一众相关公司的股票集体上涨，其背后核心的AI算力“大脑”英伟达的股价更是“一骑绝尘”。根据媒体汇编的数据，英伟达的预期市盈率已经达到了惊人的56倍。但这并没有吓退华尔街的分析师们，媒体“市场观察”数据显示，近期更多投行将英伟达评级调至“买入”。两周前，知名投行摩根士丹利就将英伟达的股票评级由“持股”上调至“买入”，目标价也由255美元上调至304美元。英特尔周四涨近2%，报32.09美元。期权合约成交49.04万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的62%。2024年1月19日到期行权价为50美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为27,852张。数据来源：Market Chameleon三、异动观察数据来源：Market Chameleon京东加入“分拆上市”概念，股价涨近8%，报44.40美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为45美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为15,886张。数据来源：Market Chameleon昨日晚间，京东集团发布公告，拟分拆京东产发于香港主板独立上市。京东产发是京东集团旗下唯一仓储物流设施开发运营管理子集团，持有京东集团旗下自建全部仓储物流设施项目。截至公告日，京东集团通过全资子公司持有京东产发已发行股本总额的约74.96%。分拆完成后，京东集团将继续间接持有京东产发50%以上的股权，因此，京东产发将仍为京东集团子公司。京东集团将继续经营（其中包括）在线零售和电子商务平台业务。随后，据港交所文件，京东工业股份有限公司、京东智能产发股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书。第一共和银行周四下挫4%，报13.69美元。2023年3月31日到期行权价为13美元看跌期权的成交量特别高，成交量为11,590张。数据来源：Market Chameleon","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949309322,"gmtCreate":1678336055467,"gmtModify":1678336059591,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6443a267db2c953f9d60a08f6e734075","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949309322","repostId":"1173146453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173146453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678331864,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173146453?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔超预期放“鹰”，背后真正的危险是什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173146453","media":"格隆汇","summary":"全球金融市场为何会如此恐慌？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>鲍威尔以一己之力，干翻全球金融市场。</p><p><b>01</b></p><p>北京时间3月7日23：00，鲍威尔出席参众两院听证会，作美联储半年度货币政策证词。这是他2月7日以来的首次讲话，也是3月份议息会议之前最后的一次讲话。</p><p>鲍威尔开门见山说：<i>“近几个月，通胀一直在放缓，但通胀率回落至2％的过程还有很长的路要走，而且可能坎坷。正如我所提到的，最近的经济数据强于预期，</i><i><b>这表明，最终的利率水平可能会高于之前的预期。如果整体数据暗示有必要加快（货币）紧缩，我们将准备加快加息步伐。</b></i><i>恢复价格稳定可能需要我们一段时间内保持限制性的货币政策立场。”</i></p><p>鲍威尔还指出，自去年年中他上次在众议院作证以来，美国通胀增长已经一定程度上缓和，但通胀率还远高于联储的长期目标2％。因为供应链瓶颈缓和，货币紧缩限制了需求，核心商品部门的通胀已经下降。然而，住房以外的核心服务通胀并未下降。</p><p><b>鲍威尔超越想象的鹰，不仅终端利率可能要高于此前预期，且加息节奏可能重返50个基点，令金融市场大为错愕。</b>尤其是后者一旦发生，中期上将改变金融市场此前交易“加息放缓至结束”的运行轨迹。</p><p>据美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场显示，3月份加息50个基点的概率从前一天的30%飙升至70%，加息25个基点的概率从前一天的70%下降至30%。且终端利率预期值在今年6月份达到5.5%-5.75%的概率高达50%左右。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b999772d2952d88a64cad987538f394b\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>鲍威尔这番鹰派十足的表态，暗示2月份美国非农就业以及通胀可能依旧维持1月份的火热态势。其实，我们从已经披露的数据也能端倪一二。</p><p>2月Markit综合PMI与服务业PMI均升至50上方，均超出此前市场预期，且都创下2022年6月份以来新高，并逆转之前连续7个月萎缩的趋势。其中，就业分项指数终值均升至2022年9月份以来终值新高。这表明2月份美国经济仍然会表现出相当的韧性，且就业市场可能依旧紧俏。</p><p><b>欧洲市场通胀高烧不退，也暗示了美国2月通胀情况并不乐观。</b>欧元区2月调和CPI同比上升8.5%，高于预期的8.3%，前值为8.6%。环比看，欧元区2月调和CPI初值环比上升0.8%，高于预期的0.5%，1月则环比下降了0.2%。欧元区2月核心CPI高达5.6%，远超市场预期和1月份的5.3%，再度刷新历史纪录。其中，欧元区经济前3的德国、法国、意大利的2月份核心CPI均超出预期，且刷新本轮通胀纪录。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca27c8507c5e31866af826e68abc1a1d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美联储在3月份是否加息50个基点，最终还是取决于本周五的非农数据以及下周二的通胀数据。如果数据仍然超预期火爆，将继续施压风险资产的估值水平。</p><p><b>2023年，美联储加息终端利率更高，维持高利率时间越持久，将会是全球金融市场的重大尾部风险。</b>一方面，在利率更高更久的大背景下，货币紧缩的累积性以及滞后性会逐步显现，对于经济的冲击会比较明显，发生经济衰退的可能性会比较大。另一方面，全球货币流动性愈发紧张，会加剧金融全市场大幅波动，养老金、保险公司、对冲基金等非银行金融机构面临冲击与威胁。英国养老金暴雷、瑞士信贷破产风波以及黑石集团债券违约或许只是拉开了前奏。</p><p><b>02</b></p><p>近来，A股迎来了一波明显调整。为什么？</p><p>今年GDP预期目标为5%左右。该数据其实落在市场预期5%-5.5%区间下限，预期中位数大致为5.3%。短期看，市场会对此前乐观预期进行一定程度上的修正。</p><p>在机构看来，数据合理偏保守主要有两方面因素。第一，保持定力，不重走地产老路——全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展。这也意味着对于房地产的刺激会有限度，不会大水漫灌搞强刺激。</p><p>第二，内外部压力，不确定因素较大——外部环境不确定性加大，全球通胀仍处于高位，世界经济和贸易增长动能减弱，外部打压遏制不断上升。国内经济增长企稳向上基础尚需巩固，需求不足仍是突出矛盾……</p><p>除5%数据外，还有一个数据比较重要，就是城镇人口新增就业目标1200万人左右。该就业目标是创下了历年新高。要达到这个目标，经济增速就要上去。这里也暗含了今年实际完成的经济目标可能要超越5%。<b>短期看，5%对市场有压力，需修正调整，但就业数据又暗含了未来实际结果可能会超预期，亦是未来有超额收益的来源。</b></p><p>对于货币政策的定调，央行执行报告以及政府工作报告均为“稳健的货币政策要精准有力”。且保持广义货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配,支持实体经济发展。</p><p>粗略计算一下，5%的GDP增长以及3%的通胀目标，今年M2的增速很有可能维持在10%以下，而2022年是双位数增长。从这个角度看，今年货币政策再度边际宽松的可能性会比较小，降息降准工具在中短期之内出现几无可能。</p><p>A股市场分母的定价，除了国内货币政策影响外，还受制于海外流动性的扰动。</p><p><b>在付鹏看来，美元利率无论是名义利率还是实际利率，其实是真正决定全球估值的一个重要标。</b>在中国你要做一级市场风投，这个企业到底给30倍还是给60倍不是由人民币利率定的，而是由美元利率决定。因为不管是中国香港公司，还是中国大陆公司，投资什么行业以及公司去美国找一个对标物，去看看估值是什么水平。全球相对创新与领先的公司在美国上市，是以美元计价的。</p><p>最近1个月，10年期美债收益率从3.4%左右大幅攀升至4%。美股也调整了一个月。对应着国内市场，创业板指和恒生科技指数同期大幅调整。因为这些指数成长性龙头权重较大，受到海外流动性的冲击会更大一些。而上证指数权重在大蓝筹为首的传统行业，受益于经济复苏逻辑，调整幅度相对偏小。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c601457fd9acd1a7e92210d30781c40\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>近期，外围美股市场重回交易通胀粘性高，加息更高更长的逻辑。这导致美元指数以及10年期美债收益率飙升，进而压制全球风险资产的估值水平，尤其是成长股。</p><p>5%的数据无市场预期惊喜，叠加海外流动性趋紧交易的大背景，A股短期内仍会有一些压力。不过，经济复苏的主线逻辑没有变化，不必恐慌。同时，我们需要紧密跟踪俄乌冲突以及中美关系的进展，及时做出仓位调整与变化。</p><p><b>03</b></p><p>美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行是全球流动性的三大发动机。美联储最为重要，但朝着利率更高更久的方向去了。欧洲央行也不赖，市场市场对欧洲央行的利峰值预期已经超过4%，短短一个月内飙升了60个基点。</p><p>日本方面通胀也愈发失控，2月CPI已经刷新40年之最，核心CPI已经连续第10个月超过央行2%的通胀目标。工资增长是日本央行货币政策的关键因素，此前黑田东彦将3%的工资增长作为结束超宽松货币政策的先决条件。今年“春季攻势”成为全球市场广泛关注的一场工资谈判。<b>如果达到3%以上，植田和男在4月上任之后可能继续沿着去年12月加息的节奏走，对全球金融市场而言会是一大黑天鹅。</b></p><p>如果全球三大流动性发动机熄火，且维持时间很长，全球料将发生什么？其它不知道，比较确定的有一点，对风险资产不会友好。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔超预期放“鹰”，背后真正的危险是什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-09 11:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/584833><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>鲍威尔以一己之力，干翻全球金融市场。01北京时间3月7日23：00，鲍威尔出席参众两院听证会，作美联储半年度货币政策证词。这是他2月7日以来的首次讲话，也是3月份议息会议之前最后的一次讲话。鲍威尔开门见山说：“近几个月，通胀一直在放缓，但通胀率回落至2％的过程还有很长的路要走，而且可能坎坷。正如我所提到的，最近的经济数据强于预期，这表明，最终的利率水平可能会高于之前的预期。如果整体数据暗示有必要...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/584833\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/584833","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1173146453","content_text":"鲍威尔以一己之力，干翻全球金融市场。01北京时间3月7日23：00，鲍威尔出席参众两院听证会，作美联储半年度货币政策证词。这是他2月7日以来的首次讲话，也是3月份议息会议之前最后的一次讲话。鲍威尔开门见山说：“近几个月，通胀一直在放缓，但通胀率回落至2％的过程还有很长的路要走，而且可能坎坷。正如我所提到的，最近的经济数据强于预期，这表明，最终的利率水平可能会高于之前的预期。如果整体数据暗示有必要加快（货币）紧缩，我们将准备加快加息步伐。恢复价格稳定可能需要我们一段时间内保持限制性的货币政策立场。”鲍威尔还指出，自去年年中他上次在众议院作证以来，美国通胀增长已经一定程度上缓和，但通胀率还远高于联储的长期目标2％。因为供应链瓶颈缓和，货币紧缩限制了需求，核心商品部门的通胀已经下降。然而，住房以外的核心服务通胀并未下降。鲍威尔超越想象的鹰，不仅终端利率可能要高于此前预期，且加息节奏可能重返50个基点，令金融市场大为错愕。尤其是后者一旦发生，中期上将改变金融市场此前交易“加息放缓至结束”的运行轨迹。据美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场显示，3月份加息50个基点的概率从前一天的30%飙升至70%，加息25个基点的概率从前一天的70%下降至30%。且终端利率预期值在今年6月份达到5.5%-5.75%的概率高达50%左右。鲍威尔这番鹰派十足的表态，暗示2月份美国非农就业以及通胀可能依旧维持1月份的火热态势。其实，我们从已经披露的数据也能端倪一二。2月Markit综合PMI与服务业PMI均升至50上方，均超出此前市场预期，且都创下2022年6月份以来新高，并逆转之前连续7个月萎缩的趋势。其中，就业分项指数终值均升至2022年9月份以来终值新高。这表明2月份美国经济仍然会表现出相当的韧性，且就业市场可能依旧紧俏。欧洲市场通胀高烧不退，也暗示了美国2月通胀情况并不乐观。欧元区2月调和CPI同比上升8.5%，高于预期的8.3%，前值为8.6%。环比看，欧元区2月调和CPI初值环比上升0.8%，高于预期的0.5%，1月则环比下降了0.2%。欧元区2月核心CPI高达5.6%，远超市场预期和1月份的5.3%，再度刷新历史纪录。其中，欧元区经济前3的德国、法国、意大利的2月份核心CPI均超出预期，且刷新本轮通胀纪录。美联储在3月份是否加息50个基点，最终还是取决于本周五的非农数据以及下周二的通胀数据。如果数据仍然超预期火爆，将继续施压风险资产的估值水平。2023年，美联储加息终端利率更高，维持高利率时间越持久，将会是全球金融市场的重大尾部风险。一方面，在利率更高更久的大背景下，货币紧缩的累积性以及滞后性会逐步显现，对于经济的冲击会比较明显，发生经济衰退的可能性会比较大。另一方面，全球货币流动性愈发紧张，会加剧金融全市场大幅波动，养老金、保险公司、对冲基金等非银行金融机构面临冲击与威胁。英国养老金暴雷、瑞士信贷破产风波以及黑石集团债券违约或许只是拉开了前奏。02近来，A股迎来了一波明显调整。为什么？今年GDP预期目标为5%左右。该数据其实落在市场预期5%-5.5%区间下限，预期中位数大致为5.3%。短期看，市场会对此前乐观预期进行一定程度上的修正。在机构看来，数据合理偏保守主要有两方面因素。第一，保持定力，不重走地产老路——全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展。这也意味着对于房地产的刺激会有限度，不会大水漫灌搞强刺激。第二，内外部压力，不确定因素较大——外部环境不确定性加大，全球通胀仍处于高位，世界经济和贸易增长动能减弱，外部打压遏制不断上升。国内经济增长企稳向上基础尚需巩固，需求不足仍是突出矛盾……除5%数据外，还有一个数据比较重要，就是城镇人口新增就业目标1200万人左右。该就业目标是创下了历年新高。要达到这个目标，经济增速就要上去。这里也暗含了今年实际完成的经济目标可能要超越5%。短期看，5%对市场有压力，需修正调整，但就业数据又暗含了未来实际结果可能会超预期，亦是未来有超额收益的来源。对于货币政策的定调，央行执行报告以及政府工作报告均为“稳健的货币政策要精准有力”。且保持广义货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配,支持实体经济发展。粗略计算一下，5%的GDP增长以及3%的通胀目标，今年M2的增速很有可能维持在10%以下，而2022年是双位数增长。从这个角度看，今年货币政策再度边际宽松的可能性会比较小，降息降准工具在中短期之内出现几无可能。A股市场分母的定价，除了国内货币政策影响外，还受制于海外流动性的扰动。在付鹏看来，美元利率无论是名义利率还是实际利率，其实是真正决定全球估值的一个重要标。在中国你要做一级市场风投，这个企业到底给30倍还是给60倍不是由人民币利率定的，而是由美元利率决定。因为不管是中国香港公司，还是中国大陆公司，投资什么行业以及公司去美国找一个对标物，去看看估值是什么水平。全球相对创新与领先的公司在美国上市，是以美元计价的。最近1个月，10年期美债收益率从3.4%左右大幅攀升至4%。美股也调整了一个月。对应着国内市场，创业板指和恒生科技指数同期大幅调整。因为这些指数成长性龙头权重较大，受到海外流动性的冲击会更大一些。而上证指数权重在大蓝筹为首的传统行业，受益于经济复苏逻辑，调整幅度相对偏小。近期，外围美股市场重回交易通胀粘性高，加息更高更长的逻辑。这导致美元指数以及10年期美债收益率飙升，进而压制全球风险资产的估值水平，尤其是成长股。5%的数据无市场预期惊喜，叠加海外流动性趋紧交易的大背景，A股短期内仍会有一些压力。不过，经济复苏的主线逻辑没有变化，不必恐慌。同时，我们需要紧密跟踪俄乌冲突以及中美关系的进展，及时做出仓位调整与变化。03美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行是全球流动性的三大发动机。美联储最为重要，但朝着利率更高更久的方向去了。欧洲央行也不赖，市场市场对欧洲央行的利峰值预期已经超过4%，短短一个月内飙升了60个基点。日本方面通胀也愈发失控，2月CPI已经刷新40年之最，核心CPI已经连续第10个月超过央行2%的通胀目标。工资增长是日本央行货币政策的关键因素，此前黑田东彦将3%的工资增长作为结束超宽松货币政策的先决条件。今年“春季攻势”成为全球市场广泛关注的一场工资谈判。如果达到3%以上，植田和男在4月上任之后可能继续沿着去年12月加息的节奏走，对全球金融市场而言会是一大黑天鹅。如果全球三大流动性发动机熄火，且维持时间很长，全球料将发生什么？其它不知道，比较确定的有一点，对风险资产不会友好。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940415481,"gmtCreate":1678109536244,"gmtModify":1678109539908,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6443a267db2c953f9d60a08f6e734075","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940415481","repostId":"2317178283","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317178283","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678109583,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317178283?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:33","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 东南亚互联网繁荣褪去，Sea Q4营收或首现负增长","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317178283","media":"智通财经","summary":"3月7日美股盘前，“东南亚小腾讯”Sea将公布2022年第四季度及全年业绩。市场预计，该公司Q4营收增长将陷入停滞，大大扭转这家游戏和电子商务巨头曾以三位数的增速成为东南亚互联网繁荣象征的局面。根据分","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月7日美股盘前，“东南亚小腾讯”Sea将公布2022年第四季度及全年业绩。市场预计，该公司Q4营收增长将陷入停滞，大大扭转这家游戏和电子商务巨头曾以三位数的增速成为东南亚互联网繁荣象征的局面。</p><p>根据分析师的平均预期，Sea第四季度销售额预计同比下降5.8%，这将是有记录以来的首次下滑，反映出该公司从印度、拉美和欧洲市场撤出，以及冻结工资和其他紧缩开支措施，以推动盈利能力而非市场份额增长。</p><p>尽管Sea第四季度营收能意外实现增长，但对这家东南亚最大的互联网公司来说，这也是一个痛苦的转变。过去，该公司一度是全球表现最好的股票。两年前，投资者纷纷涌入该公司，该公司得到了中国互联网巨头腾讯(00700)的支持，并在疫情时期的网络使用热潮中获益。但在随后，由于疫情后通胀飙升，以及对经济衰退的担忧，自2021年10月达到2026亿美元的峰值以来，该股市值蒸发了1660亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6e3cb3833eb10b4ec4af60f8bfd74f\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Maybank Investment Banking Group经济学家Ju Ye Lee表示：“随着通胀压力的持续，利率可能会在更长的时间内保持较高水平，这将为东南亚互联网行业带来挑战性的一年。”</p><p>虽然，Sea投资者目前可能不会过度担心增长的迅速消散，而是可能会关注该公司的利润表现。最近几个季度，Sea通过采取包括裁员数千人和几乎全面冻结工资在内的措施，持续地缩小亏损。</p><p>但是，营收的下降将象征着投资者对东南亚互联网公司的喜爱正在迅速降温。去年，新加坡时尚零售平台Zilingo Pte的倒闭，以及新加坡叫车和外卖巨头Grab(GRAB.US)和印度尼西亚科技巨头GoTo Group等公司的股票遭遇抛售，都体现了这一下滑趋势。这让投资者更多地将焦点放在Sea旗下Garena和Shopee在控制成本方面的表现。而从长远来看，投资者将希望听到可靠的计划，以夺回过去几年让Sea成为股市宠儿的强劲增长。</p><p>Bloomberg Intelligence分析师Nathan Naidu表示：“Shopee的市场领导地位和规模应该会吸引更多的商家使用利润率更高、基于交易的服务，从而帮助提高货币化率和电商营收。这些因素，再加上裁员和促销支出带来的员工成本降低，可能会使Sea第四季度的净亏损降至约4亿美元，低于上年第四季度的4.848亿美元。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 东南亚互联网繁荣褪去，Sea Q4营收或首现负增长</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 东南亚互联网繁荣褪去，Sea Q4营收或首现负增长\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-06 21:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887542.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月7日美股盘前，“东南亚小腾讯”Sea将公布2022年第四季度及全年业绩。市场预计，该公司Q4营收增长将陷入停滞，大大扭转这家游戏和电子商务巨头曾以三位数的增速成为东南亚互联网繁荣象征的局面。根据分析师的平均预期，Sea第四季度销售额预计同比下降5.8%，这将是有记录以来的首次下滑，反映出该公司从印度、拉美和欧洲市场撤出，以及冻结工资和其他紧缩开支措施，以推动盈利能力而非市场份额增长。尽管Sea...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887542.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bbb447b77f48f3eaf5c5a8c43fa372","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887542.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317178283","content_text":"3月7日美股盘前，“东南亚小腾讯”Sea将公布2022年第四季度及全年业绩。市场预计，该公司Q4营收增长将陷入停滞，大大扭转这家游戏和电子商务巨头曾以三位数的增速成为东南亚互联网繁荣象征的局面。根据分析师的平均预期，Sea第四季度销售额预计同比下降5.8%，这将是有记录以来的首次下滑，反映出该公司从印度、拉美和欧洲市场撤出，以及冻结工资和其他紧缩开支措施，以推动盈利能力而非市场份额增长。尽管Sea第四季度营收能意外实现增长，但对这家东南亚最大的互联网公司来说，这也是一个痛苦的转变。过去，该公司一度是全球表现最好的股票。两年前，投资者纷纷涌入该公司，该公司得到了中国互联网巨头腾讯(00700)的支持，并在疫情时期的网络使用热潮中获益。但在随后，由于疫情后通胀飙升，以及对经济衰退的担忧，自2021年10月达到2026亿美元的峰值以来，该股市值蒸发了1660亿美元。Maybank Investment Banking Group经济学家Ju Ye Lee表示：“随着通胀压力的持续，利率可能会在更长的时间内保持较高水平，这将为东南亚互联网行业带来挑战性的一年。”虽然，Sea投资者目前可能不会过度担心增长的迅速消散，而是可能会关注该公司的利润表现。最近几个季度，Sea通过采取包括裁员数千人和几乎全面冻结工资在内的措施，持续地缩小亏损。但是，营收的下降将象征着投资者对东南亚互联网公司的喜爱正在迅速降温。去年，新加坡时尚零售平台Zilingo Pte的倒闭，以及新加坡叫车和外卖巨头Grab(GRAB.US)和印度尼西亚科技巨头GoTo Group等公司的股票遭遇抛售，都体现了这一下滑趋势。这让投资者更多地将焦点放在Sea旗下Garena和Shopee在控制成本方面的表现。而从长远来看，投资者将希望听到可靠的计划，以夺回过去几年让Sea成为股市宠儿的强劲增长。Bloomberg Intelligence分析师Nathan Naidu表示：“Shopee的市场领导地位和规模应该会吸引更多的商家使用利润率更高、基于交易的服务，从而帮助提高货币化率和电商营收。这些因素，再加上裁员和促销支出带来的员工成本降低，可能会使Sea第四季度的净亏损降至约4亿美元，低于上年第四季度的4.848亿美元。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940801021,"gmtCreate":1677778766464,"gmtModify":1677778770119,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6443a267db2c953f9d60a08f6e734075","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940801021","repostId":"2316495692","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2316495692","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1677772257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2316495692?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-02 23:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"没有硝烟的战争再起！美联储已死？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2316495692","media":"金十数据","summary":"华尔街有一则投资箴言：“别和美联储作对。”或许这话只说对了一半？与其交易鲍威尔讲话，不如交易……","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>华尔街有一则投资箴言：“别和美联储作对。”或许这话只说对了一半？与其交易鲍威尔讲话，不如交易……</blockquote><p>3月17日将是美联储本轮加息一周年的日子，自美联储开启加息周期以来，市场跟鲍威尔之间没有硝烟的战争就开始了，结果市场被反复“吊打”，以至于很多人都深刻认识到一句话：</p><blockquote>“别跟美联储作对。”</blockquote><p>如今，投资者似乎更愿意关注并交易鲍威尔及其他美联储官员的讲话，但是我们认为，投资者也不宜过于“迷信美联储”，否则恐怕更容易遭到“暴击”，不信就一起来看看吧。</p><p>加息一周年：市场和经济表现如何？</p><p>在美联储开启加息并将利率提高425个基点后，整个市场经历了惊心动魄的一年。</p><p>投资者抛售一切，全球<b>股市</b>市值蒸发数万亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28e0b47d9cb293b86065b106d653cab\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>非美货币</b>普遍下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd82d4ac907d7fc330c68e8d8acfc610\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>大宗商品</b>表现一言难尽，<b>黄金</b>未能充当抗通胀的工具，有“全球经济领头羊”之称的<b>铜价</b>闪现出衰退信号，<b>原油和天然气</b>价格则涨至多年新高，加剧了央行一直想抑制的通胀。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb402226f274ae98e8000e791f7dd969\" tg-width=\"1032\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>加密货币</b>经历了“断崖式”下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a42e248f8ed2bf9b4daff7da0a726a1\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>就连向来被视为最安全资产的<b>美债</b>，也经历了50年来最可怕的下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584250eb939f26817eb0a753ba12e1d8\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>好消息是，在去年美联储以1980年代以来最激进的速度加息之后，目前加息幅度已经从此前的75个基点逐步回落到25个基点。</p><p>但坏消息是，截至今年2月，美联储累计已经加息450个基点，但是<b>对于抑制通胀问题并没有奏效</b>。2月份一系列强劲数据的“炮轰”，可能意味着美联储抗通胀的努力失败了。</p><p>尽管<b>CPI年率</b>已经降至5.5%，远低于去年9%的峰值，但是仍远高于美联储的目标，甚至还显现出粘性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9465bba9a8a24e8ebd69a58fa120d1f0\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>就业市场</b>也显示出惊人的弹性，以至于连美国前劳工部部长Robert Reich都失望地表示：“<b>美联储已死</b>。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e46ae8f7fa66d98726d85a7df19482e\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>当然，这也不能全怪美联储，因为造成通胀的部分原因是地缘冲突、疫情以及大宗商品和零部件的供应问题。</p><p>不过，就算只看美国国内的情况，<b>美联储加息其实也无助于减缓物价上涨，甚至可能会产生相反的结果</b>。</p><p>很简单，<u>假如你是一家大公司的老板，你会在美联储加息导致经济衰退之前主动给商品降价，并忍受利润减少吗？很显然，任何一个正常的老板，都不会这么做，相反，他们会尽可能地将价格长时间维持在高位。</u></p><p>只有当高利率开始损害到消费者的利益，以至于他们买不起高价商品时，企业才会被迫降价。换句话说，仅靠美联储加息来抑制通胀，恐怕不太行得通。</p><p>没有硝烟的战争频频上演</p><p>当然了，不管加息能否抑制通胀，<b>只要美联储还在加息，市场“流血”就不会停止</b>。</p><p>投资界有一句名言：“别和美联储作对。”</p><p>但是事实证明，在过去1年的大部分时间里，交易员和投资者都忽略了这句话，以至于在跟美联储的对抗中频频落败。</p><p>这一现象在美联储刚刚开启加息时表现得十分明显，<b>当时通胀持续飙升，而美联储转向几十年来最为鹰派的政策立场令投资者感到意外，从而引发市场崩盘</b>，投资者的损失也主要出现在美联储加息周期最初的几个月里，具体来说是去年5月中旬以前。</p><p>即使到去年5月中旬，投资者开始接受美联储将加息到5%左右的预期，但是<b>投资者仍不相信美联储会像他们所说的那样强硬。</b></p><p>当时他们就开始押注，美联储最终将被迫放弃其“将利率长期维持在高位”的承诺，并将于今年开始降息，并据此进行交易。因此，去年5月中旬，标普500指数开始出现反弹。</p><p>这个故事听起来是不是很熟悉？</p><p>没错，<b>今年年初，市场再次上演这一场景</b>：尽管鲍威尔和其他美联储官员都在反复强调更高的终端利率及其将利率维持在高位的必要性，但是投资者仍认为美联储是在虚张声势，他们开始迫不及待地押注美联储将于今年下半年宣布降息。</p><p>结果我们都清楚，2月份的数据直接将这些过分乐观的投资者“打爆头”。</p><p>严重的沟通问题？</p><p>有分析师认为，市场之所以不停地反对美联储，<b>可能是因为美联储存在信誉或者沟通问题，或者二者皆有</b>。</p><p>事实上，<b>在大多数情况下，投资者都不听鲍威尔说了什么，而是只听他们自己想听的，所以才会经常出现鲍威尔放鹰，市场还是上涨了；或者鲍威尔放鸽，市场却下跌的情况。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7074d9c4bc3a939b7c95dc4e55caaef7\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>例如在去年11月30日、今年2月1日和2月7日，鲍威尔三次讲话放鸽，按道理来说，这对股市来说应该说是个大利好，然而在其发表鸽派讲话之后，市场反而下跌了。</p><p>以2月7日的讲话为例，当时鲍威尔声称：</p><blockquote>“我们认为我们将需要进一步加息。劳动力市场异常强劲。如果就业形势仍然很热，很可能我们必须做更多的事情......上周五的非农就业报告强于预期，表明（抗通胀）这将是一个漫长的过程。”</blockquote><p>同时他还表示：</p><blockquote>“反通胀的进程已经开始，美联储预计目前的加息将是适当的，但仍未达到足够限制性的水平。”</blockquote><p>对于这一讲话，SPI资管公司分析师Stephen Innes分析称，<b>鲍威尔并没有不遗余力地用鹰派言论来打压市场</b>。鲍威尔的讲话更证实了一点，即随着紧缩政策进入周期后期的调整阶段，美联储对更广泛的经纪数据和政策结果持开放态度。也就是说，当且仅当数据让他们有绝对信心，相信抗击通胀的努力已经取得了胜利，更积极的增长前景不会带来通胀再次加速的风险时，他们才会降息。</p><p>不过，Innes表示：</p><blockquote>“无论市场如何乐观，要知道的一点是，在美元走强、利率上升，金融环境收紧的环境中，任何软着陆都不可能没有痛苦。”</blockquote><p>由此可见，鲍威尔鹰中有鸽的讲话并未能提振市场情绪，<b>市场听到的是美联储将持续收紧，经济软着陆将难以避免，因此开始抛售股票</b>。</p><p>鲍威尔无知？！</p><p>那么，这是否意味着，关注并交易鲍威尔及其他美联储官员的讲话，就能确保万无一失呢？</p><p>事情恐怕也没有这么简单。</p><p>分析公司Spectra Markets的总裁布伦特·唐纳利（Brent Donnelly）认为：</p><blockquote>“对于经济前景，鲍威尔知道的并不比你多，因此我一直在强调，市场应该交易的是经济数据，而非鲍威尔讲话。”</blockquote><p>唐纳利此话不无道理。</p><p>过去2年，鲍威尔多次被市场“打脸”，其中最典型的例子就是他的“<b>通胀暂时论</b>”。</p><p>早在2021年2月，鲍威尔就表示，一次性的物价上涨不一定会推升通胀，结果呢？</p><p>2021年5月，CPI年率就从2月份的1.7%飙升至5%，彼时鲍威尔仍坚持称：“<b>高通胀只是暂时的</b>。”</p><p>当年8月，CPI年率升至5.3%，鲍威尔又信誓旦旦表示：“<b>通胀压力明年上半年就会缓解</b>。”</p><p>当年11月，CPI年率涨至6.8%，鲍威尔继续嘴硬：“<b>通胀远高于目标，但是我们在利率、通胀和强劲经济方面处于非常有利的地位</b>。”</p><p>到2022年2月，CPI年率坐上火箭，涨至7.9%，鲍威尔终于松口：“<b>预计今年通胀将走高，但低于去年的通胀</b>。”</p><p>在此后的一年里，美联储终于开始加息以抑制通胀，但是仍遭到市场的抨击，因为太晚开启加息周期，通胀越来越顽固。</p><p>这个例子就很好地说明，以鲍威尔为首的美联储官员，知道的并不比市场其他人多。</p><p>今年2月初，美联储将加息幅度从上一次的50个基点降至25个基点后，非农、CPI数据又大超预期，再次打了此前表明反通胀进程已经开启的鲍威尔的脸。</p><p>另外，有着“美联储传声筒”之称的Nick Timiraos在美联储2月份加息之前曾表示，<b>美联储官员跟普通投资者一样，对于加息的滞后性并不确定。</b></p><p>一些美联储官员称，利率变动对经济的影响更快，因为美联储比过去更明确地传达了自己的政策意图。30年前的美联储并不会提前向公众传达其是否将在会议上做出任何利率调整。美联储理事沃勒认为：</p><blockquote>“当时的市场必须花时间弄清楚美联储正在采取行动。在这种情况下，政策需要一段时间才能影响经济；相比之下，今天的美联储为其未来的行动提供了指导，这缩短了滞后时间。我认为，下个季度货币政策的很多影响将进一步显现。”</blockquote><p>但也有人认为，这忽略了延长滞后的重要变化。即使美联储官员缩短了改变利率和影响金融状况之间的时间，他们也没有缩短金融市场影响经济活动的时间。</p><p>总之，目前包括美联储在内，没人能说清楚加息对经济的影响会滞后多久，这其实也是“鲍威尔（或美联储）无知”的一个重要体现。</p><p>因此，对于投资者来说，<b>“别跟美联储作对”或许是一则投资箴言，但是“别太迷信美联储”恐怕也同样重要。</b></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>没有硝烟的战争再起！美联储已死？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n没有硝烟的战争再起！美联储已死？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-02 23:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107678&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华尔街有一则投资箴言：“别和美联储作对。”或许这话只说对了一半？与其交易鲍威尔讲话，不如交易……3月17日将是美联储本轮加息一周年的日子，自美联储开启加息周期以来，市场跟鲍威尔之间没有硝烟的战争就开始了，结果市场被反复“吊打”，以至于很多人都深刻认识到一句话：“别跟美联储作对。”如今，投资者似乎更愿意关注并交易鲍威尔及其他美联储官员的讲话，但是我们认为，投资者也不宜过于“迷信美联储”，否则恐怕更...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107678&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6500520b6c72e4650ea6c53cb7c59999","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107678&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2316495692","content_text":"华尔街有一则投资箴言：“别和美联储作对。”或许这话只说对了一半？与其交易鲍威尔讲话，不如交易……3月17日将是美联储本轮加息一周年的日子，自美联储开启加息周期以来，市场跟鲍威尔之间没有硝烟的战争就开始了，结果市场被反复“吊打”，以至于很多人都深刻认识到一句话：“别跟美联储作对。”如今，投资者似乎更愿意关注并交易鲍威尔及其他美联储官员的讲话，但是我们认为，投资者也不宜过于“迷信美联储”，否则恐怕更容易遭到“暴击”，不信就一起来看看吧。加息一周年：市场和经济表现如何？在美联储开启加息并将利率提高425个基点后，整个市场经历了惊心动魄的一年。投资者抛售一切，全球股市市值蒸发数万亿美元。非美货币普遍下跌。大宗商品表现一言难尽，黄金未能充当抗通胀的工具，有“全球经济领头羊”之称的铜价闪现出衰退信号，原油和天然气价格则涨至多年新高，加剧了央行一直想抑制的通胀。加密货币经历了“断崖式”下跌。就连向来被视为最安全资产的美债，也经历了50年来最可怕的下跌。好消息是，在去年美联储以1980年代以来最激进的速度加息之后，目前加息幅度已经从此前的75个基点逐步回落到25个基点。但坏消息是，截至今年2月，美联储累计已经加息450个基点，但是对于抑制通胀问题并没有奏效。2月份一系列强劲数据的“炮轰”，可能意味着美联储抗通胀的努力失败了。尽管CPI年率已经降至5.5%，远低于去年9%的峰值，但是仍远高于美联储的目标，甚至还显现出粘性。就业市场也显示出惊人的弹性，以至于连美国前劳工部部长Robert Reich都失望地表示：“美联储已死。”当然，这也不能全怪美联储，因为造成通胀的部分原因是地缘冲突、疫情以及大宗商品和零部件的供应问题。不过，就算只看美国国内的情况，美联储加息其实也无助于减缓物价上涨，甚至可能会产生相反的结果。很简单，假如你是一家大公司的老板，你会在美联储加息导致经济衰退之前主动给商品降价，并忍受利润减少吗？很显然，任何一个正常的老板，都不会这么做，相反，他们会尽可能地将价格长时间维持在高位。只有当高利率开始损害到消费者的利益，以至于他们买不起高价商品时，企业才会被迫降价。换句话说，仅靠美联储加息来抑制通胀，恐怕不太行得通。没有硝烟的战争频频上演当然了，不管加息能否抑制通胀，只要美联储还在加息，市场“流血”就不会停止。投资界有一句名言：“别和美联储作对。”但是事实证明，在过去1年的大部分时间里，交易员和投资者都忽略了这句话，以至于在跟美联储的对抗中频频落败。这一现象在美联储刚刚开启加息时表现得十分明显，当时通胀持续飙升，而美联储转向几十年来最为鹰派的政策立场令投资者感到意外，从而引发市场崩盘，投资者的损失也主要出现在美联储加息周期最初的几个月里，具体来说是去年5月中旬以前。即使到去年5月中旬，投资者开始接受美联储将加息到5%左右的预期，但是投资者仍不相信美联储会像他们所说的那样强硬。当时他们就开始押注，美联储最终将被迫放弃其“将利率长期维持在高位”的承诺，并将于今年开始降息，并据此进行交易。因此，去年5月中旬，标普500指数开始出现反弹。这个故事听起来是不是很熟悉？没错，今年年初，市场再次上演这一场景：尽管鲍威尔和其他美联储官员都在反复强调更高的终端利率及其将利率维持在高位的必要性，但是投资者仍认为美联储是在虚张声势，他们开始迫不及待地押注美联储将于今年下半年宣布降息。结果我们都清楚，2月份的数据直接将这些过分乐观的投资者“打爆头”。严重的沟通问题？有分析师认为，市场之所以不停地反对美联储，可能是因为美联储存在信誉或者沟通问题，或者二者皆有。事实上，在大多数情况下，投资者都不听鲍威尔说了什么，而是只听他们自己想听的，所以才会经常出现鲍威尔放鹰，市场还是上涨了；或者鲍威尔放鸽，市场却下跌的情况。例如在去年11月30日、今年2月1日和2月7日，鲍威尔三次讲话放鸽，按道理来说，这对股市来说应该说是个大利好，然而在其发表鸽派讲话之后，市场反而下跌了。以2月7日的讲话为例，当时鲍威尔声称：“我们认为我们将需要进一步加息。劳动力市场异常强劲。如果就业形势仍然很热，很可能我们必须做更多的事情......上周五的非农就业报告强于预期，表明（抗通胀）这将是一个漫长的过程。”同时他还表示：“反通胀的进程已经开始，美联储预计目前的加息将是适当的，但仍未达到足够限制性的水平。”对于这一讲话，SPI资管公司分析师Stephen Innes分析称，鲍威尔并没有不遗余力地用鹰派言论来打压市场。鲍威尔的讲话更证实了一点，即随着紧缩政策进入周期后期的调整阶段，美联储对更广泛的经纪数据和政策结果持开放态度。也就是说，当且仅当数据让他们有绝对信心，相信抗击通胀的努力已经取得了胜利，更积极的增长前景不会带来通胀再次加速的风险时，他们才会降息。不过，Innes表示：“无论市场如何乐观，要知道的一点是，在美元走强、利率上升，金融环境收紧的环境中，任何软着陆都不可能没有痛苦。”由此可见，鲍威尔鹰中有鸽的讲话并未能提振市场情绪，市场听到的是美联储将持续收紧，经济软着陆将难以避免，因此开始抛售股票。鲍威尔无知？！那么，这是否意味着，关注并交易鲍威尔及其他美联储官员的讲话，就能确保万无一失呢？事情恐怕也没有这么简单。分析公司Spectra Markets的总裁布伦特·唐纳利（Brent Donnelly）认为：“对于经济前景，鲍威尔知道的并不比你多，因此我一直在强调，市场应该交易的是经济数据，而非鲍威尔讲话。”唐纳利此话不无道理。过去2年，鲍威尔多次被市场“打脸”，其中最典型的例子就是他的“通胀暂时论”。早在2021年2月，鲍威尔就表示，一次性的物价上涨不一定会推升通胀，结果呢？2021年5月，CPI年率就从2月份的1.7%飙升至5%，彼时鲍威尔仍坚持称：“高通胀只是暂时的。”当年8月，CPI年率升至5.3%，鲍威尔又信誓旦旦表示：“通胀压力明年上半年就会缓解。”当年11月，CPI年率涨至6.8%，鲍威尔继续嘴硬：“通胀远高于目标，但是我们在利率、通胀和强劲经济方面处于非常有利的地位。”到2022年2月，CPI年率坐上火箭，涨至7.9%，鲍威尔终于松口：“预计今年通胀将走高，但低于去年的通胀。”在此后的一年里，美联储终于开始加息以抑制通胀，但是仍遭到市场的抨击，因为太晚开启加息周期，通胀越来越顽固。这个例子就很好地说明，以鲍威尔为首的美联储官员，知道的并不比市场其他人多。今年2月初，美联储将加息幅度从上一次的50个基点降至25个基点后，非农、CPI数据又大超预期，再次打了此前表明反通胀进程已经开启的鲍威尔的脸。另外，有着“美联储传声筒”之称的Nick Timiraos在美联储2月份加息之前曾表示，美联储官员跟普通投资者一样，对于加息的滞后性并不确定。一些美联储官员称，利率变动对经济的影响更快，因为美联储比过去更明确地传达了自己的政策意图。30年前的美联储并不会提前向公众传达其是否将在会议上做出任何利率调整。美联储理事沃勒认为：“当时的市场必须花时间弄清楚美联储正在采取行动。在这种情况下，政策需要一段时间才能影响经济；相比之下，今天的美联储为其未来的行动提供了指导，这缩短了滞后时间。我认为，下个季度货币政策的很多影响将进一步显现。”但也有人认为，这忽略了延长滞后的重要变化。即使美联储官员缩短了改变利率和影响金融状况之间的时间，他们也没有缩短金融市场影响经济活动的时间。总之，目前包括美联储在内，没人能说清楚加息对经济的影响会滞后多久，这其实也是“鲍威尔（或美联储）无知”的一个重要体现。因此，对于投资者来说，“别跟美联储作对”或许是一则投资箴言，但是“别太迷信美联储”恐怕也同样重要。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968386808,"gmtCreate":1669129527305,"gmtModify":1676538156283,"author":{"id":"4090765737044950","authorId":"4090765737044950","name":"猫咪国王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6443a267db2c953f9d60a08f6e734075","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090765737044950","authorIdStr":"4090765737044950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968386808","repostId":"667440241","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667440241,"gmtCreate":1669103644185,"gmtModify":1676538152610,"author":{"id":"4100392628064900","authorId":"4100392628064900","name":"财见","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfecb1713c6fef32fde051255c4518f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100392628064900","authorIdStr":"4100392628064900"},"themes":[],"title":"企鵝蘭登書屋收購西蒙與舒斯特的交易將告吹","htmlText":"圖書出版巨頭西蒙與舒斯特公司(Simon 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