CapybaraNDU personal page - To The Moon

CapybaraNDU

CapybaraNDU

No need for fancy titles and degrees. Stay rational

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2023-04-06

What is this tiger. Your games are so rigged and scammish all the time. Just like carnival games. I got 100 points and I was only awarded 82 points.

2022-04-16

$MAPLETREE NORTH ASIA COMM TR(RW0U.SI)$🙂

04-29

Keeping up with the S&P 500 🙂

2023-12-01

Sounds like white noise with a bear bias . All your points of the rally only come from the fact that it "should" be a short cover . Overall, fellow tigers; please stop listening to bad news. Bad news from news outlet will only cause fear in the market, while good news most likely have been priced in already. News outlets like seeking alpha have nothing to gain except to get increased viewership from disastrous / end of the world speculation articles. Please stick to your fundamentals and invest wisely tigers 🙏🏻 do not sell in panic. See you all on the road to financial freedom

SPY: Powell's Friday Speech To Likely "Kill" The Rally

2023-07-13

Good try, once again

The Inflation Battle Is Far From Over, Now The Hard Part Begins

2023-07-14

Fellow investors, please ignore all the white noiseand focus on long term/ doing your own research. Editors/companies like them are paid by companies to inflate their stocks or to cause fear in the market. It is completely biased and they will never care about your money

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-07-11

Good try

CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again

2023-07-14

Can you make up your mind. One moment you claim inflation is back, the next day you say it is gone. What a loser

Inflation Is Nearly Dead Already

2022-04-14

$First Solar(FSLR)$🙂

2022-04-12

$Merck(MRK)$🙂

2022-10-21

06-06

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Held since 2022. Selling shovels in this AI hype 😋

01-11

Terrible data and sticky inflation. Looks like 3 rate cuts for this year will be unrealistic. Tbh it was already unrealistic to begin with haha

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-04-10

$MAPLETREE NORTH ASIA COMM TR(RW0U.SI)$🙂

2023-07-10

Good try

The Stock Market's Inflation Fantasy Ends This Week

2022-09-27

$Apple(AAPL)$🙂

2022-09-01

$Apple(AAPL)$🫡

2022-05-27

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$🙂

2022-05-01

$Boeing(BA)$🙂

2022-04-29

$First Solar(FSLR)$🙂

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Q3, but we stay on par with the market 🙏🏻🙂","listText":"Rough Q3, but we stay on par with the market 🙏🏻🙂","text":"Rough Q3, but we stay on par with the market 🙏🏻🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a0c3b78c950947252ebe1b63875afb73","width":"591","height":"1280"}],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359034542276808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":49,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324260216709240,"gmtCreate":1720194314215,"gmtModify":1720194369661,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2nd quarter review 🙂","listText":"2nd quarter 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🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ca8271e2565a938648ff4f34aa083d3","width":"1170","height":"1338"}],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/300532982862016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315876749721856,"gmtCreate":1718149684667,"gmtModify":1718149689053,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> Happy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> Happy","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ Happy","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9c9b53248ea6d8cc21e01bdfeaedb99f","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315876749721856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":313714581327880,"gmtCreate":1717628880665,"gmtModify":1717647123467,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$&nbsp;</a> Held since 2022. Selling shovels in this AI hype 😋","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$&nbsp;</a> Held since 2022. Selling shovels in this AI hype 😋","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Held since 2022. Selling shovels in this AI hype 😋","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63a6d28bf0008b4d1cad14843c50ff26","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/313714581327880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":308970678145048,"gmtCreate":1716460085697,"gmtModify":1716460090502,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Life lately 🙂","listText":"Life lately 🙂","text":"Life lately 🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d8a2281ea87b27607af9cc09e051808","width":"1170","height":"1338"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/308970678145048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262666944385304,"gmtCreate":1705161719417,"gmtModify":1705161722035,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262666944385304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262313093345368,"gmtCreate":1705075469255,"gmtModify":1705075472800,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262313093345368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262313591226584,"gmtCreate":1705075435301,"gmtModify":1705075439565,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262313591226584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":261977093103776,"gmtCreate":1704994010860,"gmtModify":1704994015642,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my coins happy new year thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my coins happy new year thank you&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my coins happy new year thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/261977093103776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":261922253512872,"gmtCreate":1704980709779,"gmtModify":1704980714410,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Terrible data and sticky inflation. Looks like 3 rate cuts for this year will be unrealistic. Tbh it was already unrealistic to begin with haha&nbsp;","listText":"Terrible data and sticky inflation. Looks like 3 rate cuts for this year will be unrealistic. Tbh it was already unrealistic to begin with haha&nbsp;","text":"Terrible data and sticky inflation. Looks like 3 rate cuts for this year will be unrealistic. Tbh it was already unrealistic to begin with haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/261922253512872","repostId":"1189816198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189816198","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1704979828,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189816198?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-01-11 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Consumer Prices Rise More Than Expected in December","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189816198","media":"Reuters","summary":"US CPI YoY Actual 3.4% (Forecast 3.2%, Previous 3.1%)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in December as rents maintained their upward trend, which could delay a much anticipated interest rate cut in March from the Federal Reserve.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month after nudging up 0.1% in November, the Labor Department&#39;s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. The cost of shelter accounted for the more than half of the increase in the CPI.</p><p>In the 12 months through December, the CPI rose 3.4% after increasing 3.1% in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.2% on the month and climbing 3.2% on a year-on-year basis.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f0b29da5d67515019038205a7f5be7c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1867\" tg-height=\"210\"/></p><p>Since slowing to an annual increase of 3.0% last June, further progress towards lower consumer inflation has been limited by persistently high rents. The annual increase in consumer prices has cooled from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.</p><p>The report followed news last Friday that the economy added 216,000 jobs in November, with annual wage growth picking up.</p><p>Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3% last month after increasing 0.3% in November. The so-called core CPI advanced 3.9% on a year-on-year basis in December after rising 4.0% in November.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Though consumer prices remain elevated, measures tracked by the U.S. central bank for its 2% inflation target improved significantly through much of 2023, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index posting its first monthly decline in more than 3-1/2 years in November.</p><p>Rents, which account for a larger share of the CPI basket, have a smaller weighting in the PCE price index, which will be published later this month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Early on Thursday, financial markets saw a roughly 69% chance of a rate cut at the Fed&#39;s March 19-20 policy meeting, according to CME Group&#39;s FedWatch Tool. The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range since March 2022.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">With the resilient labor market keeping wage growth elevated, some economists expect a rate cut in May or June.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The labor market is easing, but only gradually as layoffs remain low by historical norms.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended Jan. 6. Economists had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Claims data tend to be volatile at the start of the year. Filings remain in the lower end of the 194,000-265,000 range that prevailed in 2023. Employers are hoarding workers following difficulties finding labor in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, keeping a recession at bay.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 34,000 to 1.834 million during the week ending Dec. 30, the claims report showed.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The so-called continuing claims have mostly increased since mid-September, a trend blamed mainly on difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations after an unprecedented surge in filings early in the pandemic.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Economists expect the distortion will be smoothed out when the government revises the data this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Consumer Prices Rise More Than Expected in December</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Consumer Prices Rise More Than Expected in December\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-01-11 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in December as rents maintained their upward trend, which could delay a much anticipated interest rate cut in March from the Federal Reserve.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month after nudging up 0.1% in November, the Labor Department&#39;s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. The cost of shelter accounted for the more than half of the increase in the CPI.</p><p>In the 12 months through December, the CPI rose 3.4% after increasing 3.1% in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.2% on the month and climbing 3.2% on a year-on-year basis.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f0b29da5d67515019038205a7f5be7c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1867\" tg-height=\"210\"/></p><p>Since slowing to an annual increase of 3.0% last June, further progress towards lower consumer inflation has been limited by persistently high rents. The annual increase in consumer prices has cooled from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.</p><p>The report followed news last Friday that the economy added 216,000 jobs in November, with annual wage growth picking up.</p><p>Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3% last month after increasing 0.3% in November. The so-called core CPI advanced 3.9% on a year-on-year basis in December after rising 4.0% in November.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Though consumer prices remain elevated, measures tracked by the U.S. central bank for its 2% inflation target improved significantly through much of 2023, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index posting its first monthly decline in more than 3-1/2 years in November.</p><p>Rents, which account for a larger share of the CPI basket, have a smaller weighting in the PCE price index, which will be published later this month.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Early on Thursday, financial markets saw a roughly 69% chance of a rate cut at the Fed&#39;s March 19-20 policy meeting, according to CME Group&#39;s FedWatch Tool. The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range since March 2022.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">With the resilient labor market keeping wage growth elevated, some economists expect a rate cut in May or June.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The labor market is easing, but only gradually as layoffs remain low by historical norms.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended Jan. 6. Economists had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Claims data tend to be volatile at the start of the year. Filings remain in the lower end of the 194,000-265,000 range that prevailed in 2023. Employers are hoarding workers following difficulties finding labor in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, keeping a recession at bay.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 34,000 to 1.834 million during the week ending Dec. 30, the claims report showed.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The so-called continuing claims have mostly increased since mid-September, a trend blamed mainly on difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations after an unprecedented surge in filings early in the pandemic.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Economists expect the distortion will be smoothed out when the government revises the data this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189816198","content_text":"U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in December as rents maintained their upward trend, which could delay a much anticipated interest rate cut in March from the Federal Reserve.The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month after nudging up 0.1% in November, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. The cost of shelter accounted for the more than half of the increase in the CPI.In the 12 months through December, the CPI rose 3.4% after increasing 3.1% in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.2% on the month and climbing 3.2% on a year-on-year basis.Since slowing to an annual increase of 3.0% last June, further progress towards lower consumer inflation has been limited by persistently high rents. The annual increase in consumer prices has cooled from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.The report followed news last Friday that the economy added 216,000 jobs in November, with annual wage growth picking up.Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3% last month after increasing 0.3% in November. The so-called core CPI advanced 3.9% on a year-on-year basis in December after rising 4.0% in November.Though consumer prices remain elevated, measures tracked by the U.S. central bank for its 2% inflation target improved significantly through much of 2023, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index posting its first monthly decline in more than 3-1/2 years in November.Rents, which account for a larger share of the CPI basket, have a smaller weighting in the PCE price index, which will be published later this month.Early on Thursday, financial markets saw a roughly 69% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March 19-20 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range since March 2022.With the resilient labor market keeping wage growth elevated, some economists expect a rate cut in May or June.The labor market is easing, but only gradually as layoffs remain low by historical norms.In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended Jan. 6. Economists had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week.Claims data tend to be volatile at the start of the year. Filings remain in the lower end of the 194,000-265,000 range that prevailed in 2023. Employers are hoarding workers following difficulties finding labor in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, keeping a recession at bay.The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 34,000 to 1.834 million during the week ending Dec. 30, the claims report showed.The so-called continuing claims have mostly increased since mid-September, a trend blamed mainly on difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations after an unprecedented surge in filings early in the pandemic.Economists expect the distortion will be smoothed out when the government revises the data this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":261716379549944,"gmtCreate":1704906116106,"gmtModify":1704906120096,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok I give me my coins now thank you happy new yea e","listText":"Ok I give me my coins now thank you happy new yea e","text":"Ok I give me my coins now thank you happy new yea e","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/261716379549944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":261716860551464,"gmtCreate":1704906082337,"gmtModify":1704906086303,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/261716860551464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":261350766788848,"gmtCreate":1704816703624,"gmtModify":1704816707747,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/261350766788848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":260996305903752,"gmtCreate":1704730150866,"gmtModify":1704730155345,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260996305903752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":260667725201592,"gmtCreate":1704650064678,"gmtModify":1704650068827,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my coins thank you happy new year to you&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my coins thank you happy new year to you&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my coins thank you happy new year to you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260667725201592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":260397106233528,"gmtCreate":1704583995594,"gmtModify":1704583999956,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year hhs","listText":"okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year hhs","text":"okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year hhs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260397106233528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":56,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259937577333016,"gmtCreate":1704471686754,"gmtModify":1704471690571,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my coins now thank you happy new year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259937577333016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259580832788776,"gmtCreate":1704384591185,"gmtModify":1704384595738,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my new coins thank you happy new year to you&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my new coins thank you happy new year to you&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my new coins thank you happy new year to you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259580832788776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":259217002590264,"gmtCreate":1704297861099,"gmtModify":1704297865384,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you y happy new year okok&nbsp;","listText":"Okok give me my coins now thank you y happy new year okok&nbsp;","text":"Okok give me my coins now thank you y happy new year okok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/259217002590264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9948585613,"gmtCreate":1680742399332,"gmtModify":1680742404026,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What is this tiger. Your games are so rigged and scammish all the time. Just like carnival games. I got 100 points and I was only awarded 82 points.","listText":"What is this tiger. Your games are so rigged and scammish all the time. Just like carnival games. I got 100 points and I was only awarded 82 points.","text":"What is this tiger. Your games are so rigged and scammish all the time. Just like carnival games. I got 100 points and I was only awarded 82 points.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f29637f7f8a5001fe646c327e68e3bb4","width":"828","height":"1792"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":72,"commentSize":74,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9948585613","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9083061742,"gmtCreate":1650057070272,"gmtModify":1676534636041,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RW0U.SI\">$MAPLETREE NORTH ASIA COMM TR(RW0U.SI)$</a>🙂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RW0U.SI\">$MAPLETREE NORTH ASIA COMM TR(RW0U.SI)$</a>🙂","text":"$MAPLETREE NORTH ASIA COMM TR(RW0U.SI)$🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae62dee5ba5e362689734fd352ef597c","width":"750","height":"1854"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9083061742","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":300532982862016,"gmtCreate":1714391815624,"gmtModify":1714391821649,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keeping up with the S&amp;P 500 🙂&nbsp;","listText":"Keeping up with the S&amp;P 500 🙂&nbsp;","text":"Keeping up with the S&P 500 🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ca8271e2565a938648ff4f34aa083d3","width":"1170","height":"1338"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/300532982862016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":247273920090112,"gmtCreate":1701407695430,"gmtModify":1701407699454,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds like white noise with a bear bias . All your points of the rally&nbsp;only come from the fact that it \"should\" be a short cover . Overall, fellow tigers;&nbsp;please stop listening to bad news. Bad news from news outlet will only cause fear in the market, while good news most likely have been priced in already. News outlets like seeking alpha have nothing to gain except to get increased viewership from disastrous / end of the world speculation articles. Please stick to your fundamentals and invest wisely tigers 🙏🏻 do not sell in panic. See you all on the road to financial freedom&nbsp;","listText":"Sounds like white noise with a bear bias . All your points of the rally&nbsp;only come from the fact that it \"should\" be a short cover . Overall, fellow tigers;&nbsp;please stop listening to bad news. Bad news from news outlet will only cause fear in the market, while good news most likely have been priced in already. News outlets like seeking alpha have nothing to gain except to get increased viewership from disastrous / end of the world speculation articles. Please stick to your fundamentals and invest wisely tigers 🙏🏻 do not sell in panic. See you all on the road to financial freedom&nbsp;","text":"Sounds like white noise with a bear bias . All your points of the rally only come from the fact that it \"should\" be a short cover . Overall, fellow tigers; please stop listening to bad news. Bad news from news outlet will only cause fear in the market, while good news most likely have been priced in already. News outlets like seeking alpha have nothing to gain except to get increased viewership from disastrous / end of the world speculation articles. Please stick to your fundamentals and invest wisely tigers 🙏🏻 do not sell in panic. See you all on the road to financial freedom","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/247273920090112","repostId":"2387844215","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2387844215","pubTimestamp":1701397414,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2387844215?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-01 10:23","language":"en","title":"SPY: Powell's Friday Speech To Likely \"Kill\" The Rally","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2387844215","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"First of all, at the November FOMC meeting, Powell suggested that the Fed would not have","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3001165236\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The S&amp;P 500 rallied 10% in November as the financial conditions loosened with the lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar, after the November 1st FOMC meeting - where the Fed paused.</p></li><li><p>Fed Chair Powell&#39;s upcoming speech is expected to be more hawkish, potentially ending the current stock market rally.</p></li><li><p>Powell is likely to reiterate the need for tighter financial conditions, and possibly put another hike on the table.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b65d29a6dc77498ee2a51d202432e4b\" alt=\"Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News\" title=\"Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1744754099\">The November Rally</h2><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up by 10% over the last month, with almost a vertical rise from the October correction lows. Here is the chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d5793204e5d9469e2f5d70d3e9a88ff\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Let&#39;s first understand the cause of the August-October 10% correction. After the June-July rally, S&amp;P 500 stalled as the interest rates started to rise in late July. The yield on 10Y Treasury Bond crossed the 4% level in late July and kept rising until mid-October when it reached 5%. Similarly, the Fed kept forcing the higher-for-longer narrative, suggesting that the Federal Funds rate would have to go to 5.50-5.75% range by the end of 2023. Thus, the stock market corrected by 10% in reaction to the higher interest rates - that was a valuation contraction correction.</p><p>However, the jobs data at the beginning of November showed a slight weakening in the labor market, which was later supported with lower-than-expected CPI inflation data. Thus, the yield on 10Y Treasury Bond started to decrease due to the expectations of a slowing economy, falling to 4.27%. In addition, the market started to price the Fed cuts, supported by some dovish statements from the FOMC members, so the 2Y Treasury yields fell to 4.73% Thus, as the interest rates started to fall, the stock market started to rise - the valuation multiple started to expand again.</p><p>Here is the chart on 10Y and 2Y Treasury yields.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcb914dd58b34b2f239b99bf7d8749b\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>It is very likely that the market action in November was due to a major short covering. Specifically, the market participants covered their crowded short positions in stocks and bonds - which explains the sharp moves in both asset classes.</p><p>Yet, some analysts/commentators try to justify the move fundamentally. Specifically, the bullish narrative is as follows: Inflation is falling, thus, the Fed will aggressively lower interest rates in 2024, which will cancel the expected recession. This is a soft-landing or no-landing scenario, really a 1995-like scenario.</p><p>The bulls look for any clue from the FOMC member speeches to justify the bullish narrative, and there were some borderline dovish speeches, possibly suggesting that the Fed could cut in 2024, such as the recent Waller speech.</p><p>But, the reality is much different, and the Fed Chair Powell will have to &#34;pour cold water&#34; on the bullish narrative, when he speaks on Friday.</p><h2 id=\"id_1152345864\">The Powell speech on Friday</h2><p>The Fed Chair Powell will speak on Friday, for the last time before the December FOMC meeting. What will he say?</p><p>First of all, at the November FOMC meeting, Powell suggested that the Fed would not have to increase the Federal Funds rate to the 5.50-5.75% range, as previously stated. That suggested that the Fed officially finished the interest rate hiking campaign at 5.25-5.50% level. So, this was dovish, based on the market view.</p><p>But, Powell also stated that the sharp increase in long term rates substitutes for another hike by the Fed, which is why the Fed could pause. Let&#39;s see what Powell actually said at the November 1, 2023 Press Conference after the FOMC meeting, which triggered the stock market rally:</p><blockquote><p>So, obviously we’re monitoring, we’re attentive to the increase in longer-term yields and—which have contributed to a tightening of broader financial conditions since the summer. As I mentioned, persistent changes in broader financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy. In this case, the tighter financial conditions we’re seeing—[coming] from <strong>higher long-term rates,</strong> but also from other sources, like the <strong>stronger dollar and lower equity prices</strong>—could matter for future rate decisions, as long as two conditions are satisfied.</p><p>The first is that the tighter conditions would need to be <strong>persistent</strong>. And that is something that remains to be seen. But that’s critical. Things are fluctuating back and forth—that’s not what we’re looking for. With financial conditions, we’re looking for persistent changes that are material.</p><p>The second thing is that, that the longer-term rates that have moved up—they can’t simply be a reflection of, of expected policy moves from us that we would then—that if we didn’t follow through on them, then the <strong>rates would come back down</strong>. So, and I would say on that, it does not appear that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates is causing the increase in longer-term rates.</p><p>So, in the meantime, though, perhaps the most important thing is that these <strong>higher Treasury yields are showing through to higher borrowing costs</strong> for households and businesses and those higher costs are going to weigh on economic activity to the extent this tightening persists and the mind’s eye goes to the 8 percent—near 8 percent mortgage rate, which could have pretty significant effect on housing.</p></blockquote><p>Thus, Powell specifically stated that he needs the financial conditions to remain tight for the Fed to be able to pause, meaning the interest rates to stay high (TLT), US Dollar (UUP) to stay strong, and equities to stay &#34;lower&#34;. He even mentions 8% mortgages. Well, since this statement, the US Dollar significantly weakened, interest rates fell, and the stock market rallied - the financial conditions loosened significantly.</p><p>Thus, Powell will have to reiterate his message that the financial conditions have to remain tight for the Fed to be able to pause, otherwise, another hike could be coming - this message is likely to end the recent stock market rally.</p><p>The alternative scenario is that the Fed is aware of the data not publicly available that indicates an imminent recession. In this case, Powell could suggest that interest rate cuts are coming, but this is not a dovish message, this is actually a major negative for the stock market - the Fed generally cuts when something breaks, and that&#39;s when the stock prices are falling the most.</p><h2 id=\"id_3497546213\">What led the recent rally?</h2><p>Specific SPY sector analysis shows that all sectors bounced strongly in November, except energy (XLE). However, the 14% bounce in REITS (XLRE) is the unsustainable reaction to lower interest rates and short-covering of the heavily shorted ETF. Similarly, the financials (XLF) bounced strongly, with the regional banks (KRE) up by 15% in November. The Technology sector (XLK) (QQQ) continued the magic outperformance, with a nearly 15% rise in November. Thus, it appears that there was a major short covering of heavily shorted sectors in November, and also the continuation of the AI-themed tech story.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975f283beb8865b1656c093895bbc624\" alt=\"Select Sector SPDR\" title=\"Select Sector SPDR\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"441\"/><span>Select Sector SPDR</span></p><p>SPY is an ETF that tracks S&amp;P 500 (SP500) most popular with institutional and retail investors, with 430B in AUM, 0.09% fees, and a very high 13% short interest.</p><h2 id=\"id_825348939\">Implications</h2><p>The vertical rally in the stock market in November was likely a short-covering rally, triggered by the fall in interest rates in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting on November 1st. Powell suggested on November 1st that the Fed could pause if the financial conditions remain tight, specifically referring to higher long term interest rates, stronger US Dollar, and lower equity prices. However, the financial conditions significantly loosened since Powell&#39;s November 1st statement. Thus, Powell will have to be more hawkish in his Friday speech, which is likely to end the current rally in SPY. Unless, of course, Powell signals that a recession is imminent, which is even more bearish for stocks. Either way, SPY is still a Sell.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Powell's Friday Speech To Likely \"Kill\" The Rally</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Powell's Friday Speech To Likely \"Kill\" The Rally\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-01 10:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4655130-spy-powell-friday-speech-kill-rally><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 rallied 10% in November as the financial conditions loosened with the lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar, after the November 1st FOMC meeting - where the Fed paused.Fed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4655130-spy-powell-friday-speech-kill-rally\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4655130-spy-powell-friday-speech-kill-rally","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2387844215","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 rallied 10% in November as the financial conditions loosened with the lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar, after the November 1st FOMC meeting - where the Fed paused.Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech is expected to be more hawkish, potentially ending the current stock market rally.Powell is likely to reiterate the need for tighter financial conditions, and possibly put another hike on the table.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images NewsThe November RallyThe S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up by 10% over the last month, with almost a vertical rise from the October correction lows. Here is the chart:Data by YChartsLet's first understand the cause of the August-October 10% correction. After the June-July rally, S&P 500 stalled as the interest rates started to rise in late July. The yield on 10Y Treasury Bond crossed the 4% level in late July and kept rising until mid-October when it reached 5%. Similarly, the Fed kept forcing the higher-for-longer narrative, suggesting that the Federal Funds rate would have to go to 5.50-5.75% range by the end of 2023. Thus, the stock market corrected by 10% in reaction to the higher interest rates - that was a valuation contraction correction.However, the jobs data at the beginning of November showed a slight weakening in the labor market, which was later supported with lower-than-expected CPI inflation data. Thus, the yield on 10Y Treasury Bond started to decrease due to the expectations of a slowing economy, falling to 4.27%. In addition, the market started to price the Fed cuts, supported by some dovish statements from the FOMC members, so the 2Y Treasury yields fell to 4.73% Thus, as the interest rates started to fall, the stock market started to rise - the valuation multiple started to expand again.Here is the chart on 10Y and 2Y Treasury yields.Data by YChartsIt is very likely that the market action in November was due to a major short covering. Specifically, the market participants covered their crowded short positions in stocks and bonds - which explains the sharp moves in both asset classes.Yet, some analysts/commentators try to justify the move fundamentally. Specifically, the bullish narrative is as follows: Inflation is falling, thus, the Fed will aggressively lower interest rates in 2024, which will cancel the expected recession. This is a soft-landing or no-landing scenario, really a 1995-like scenario.The bulls look for any clue from the FOMC member speeches to justify the bullish narrative, and there were some borderline dovish speeches, possibly suggesting that the Fed could cut in 2024, such as the recent Waller speech.But, the reality is much different, and the Fed Chair Powell will have to \"pour cold water\" on the bullish narrative, when he speaks on Friday.The Powell speech on FridayThe Fed Chair Powell will speak on Friday, for the last time before the December FOMC meeting. What will he say?First of all, at the November FOMC meeting, Powell suggested that the Fed would not have to increase the Federal Funds rate to the 5.50-5.75% range, as previously stated. That suggested that the Fed officially finished the interest rate hiking campaign at 5.25-5.50% level. So, this was dovish, based on the market view.But, Powell also stated that the sharp increase in long term rates substitutes for another hike by the Fed, which is why the Fed could pause. Let's see what Powell actually said at the November 1, 2023 Press Conference after the FOMC meeting, which triggered the stock market rally:So, obviously we’re monitoring, we’re attentive to the increase in longer-term yields and—which have contributed to a tightening of broader financial conditions since the summer. As I mentioned, persistent changes in broader financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy. In this case, the tighter financial conditions we’re seeing—[coming] from higher long-term rates, but also from other sources, like the stronger dollar and lower equity prices—could matter for future rate decisions, as long as two conditions are satisfied.The first is that the tighter conditions would need to be persistent. And that is something that remains to be seen. But that’s critical. Things are fluctuating back and forth—that’s not what we’re looking for. With financial conditions, we’re looking for persistent changes that are material.The second thing is that, that the longer-term rates that have moved up—they can’t simply be a reflection of, of expected policy moves from us that we would then—that if we didn’t follow through on them, then the rates would come back down. So, and I would say on that, it does not appear that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates is causing the increase in longer-term rates.So, in the meantime, though, perhaps the most important thing is that these higher Treasury yields are showing through to higher borrowing costs for households and businesses and those higher costs are going to weigh on economic activity to the extent this tightening persists and the mind’s eye goes to the 8 percent—near 8 percent mortgage rate, which could have pretty significant effect on housing.Thus, Powell specifically stated that he needs the financial conditions to remain tight for the Fed to be able to pause, meaning the interest rates to stay high (TLT), US Dollar (UUP) to stay strong, and equities to stay \"lower\". He even mentions 8% mortgages. Well, since this statement, the US Dollar significantly weakened, interest rates fell, and the stock market rallied - the financial conditions loosened significantly.Thus, Powell will have to reiterate his message that the financial conditions have to remain tight for the Fed to be able to pause, otherwise, another hike could be coming - this message is likely to end the recent stock market rally.The alternative scenario is that the Fed is aware of the data not publicly available that indicates an imminent recession. In this case, Powell could suggest that interest rate cuts are coming, but this is not a dovish message, this is actually a major negative for the stock market - the Fed generally cuts when something breaks, and that's when the stock prices are falling the most.What led the recent rally?Specific SPY sector analysis shows that all sectors bounced strongly in November, except energy (XLE). However, the 14% bounce in REITS (XLRE) is the unsustainable reaction to lower interest rates and short-covering of the heavily shorted ETF. Similarly, the financials (XLF) bounced strongly, with the regional banks (KRE) up by 15% in November. The Technology sector (XLK) (QQQ) continued the magic outperformance, with a nearly 15% rise in November. Thus, it appears that there was a major short covering of heavily shorted sectors in November, and also the continuation of the AI-themed tech story.Select Sector SPDRSPY is an ETF that tracks S&P 500 (SP500) most popular with institutional and retail investors, with 430B in AUM, 0.09% fees, and a very high 13% short interest.ImplicationsThe vertical rally in the stock market in November was likely a short-covering rally, triggered by the fall in interest rates in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting on November 1st. Powell suggested on November 1st that the Fed could pause if the financial conditions remain tight, specifically referring to higher long term interest rates, stronger US Dollar, and lower equity prices. However, the financial conditions significantly loosened since Powell's November 1st statement. Thus, Powell will have to be more hawkish in his Friday speech, which is likely to end the current rally in SPY. Unless, of course, Powell signals that a recession is imminent, which is even more bearish for stocks. Either way, SPY is still a Sell.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197428641800232,"gmtCreate":1689240506824,"gmtModify":1689240510059,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good try, once again&nbsp;","listText":"Good try, once again&nbsp;","text":"Good try, once again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197428641800232","repostId":"2351546103","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2351546103","pubTimestamp":1689262193,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2351546103?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-13 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Inflation Battle Is Far From Over, Now The Hard Part Begins","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2351546103","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"The CPI data showed that the non-seasonally adjusted headline inflation rose 3.0% over the past 12 months vs. estimates of 3.1%. The big surprise was the core inflation reading, which reached 4.8%, vs","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The CPI data showed that the non-seasonally adjusted headline inflation rose 3.0% over the past 12 months vs. estimates of 3.1%. The big surprise was the core inflation reading, which reached 4.8%, vs. analysts looking for an increase of 5.0%.</p><p>On the surface, the easy part of the inflation cycle appears to have been completed, but where inflation goes from here will be open to debate. The core measure of inflation is undoubtedly better than where they were, but the Fed isn&#39;t likely to take much comfort in one month of better data. Core goods and services are still relatively high, even after modest improvement.</p><p>Core services for June were up 6.1% on a y/y basis, and goods were still up 1.3%. Both are still much higher than the historical average from 2000 until the beginning of 2020, when services averaged 2.8%, and goods averaged around 0%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67254891a2dc6db2e20d86643405e43b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Overall, the core CPI of 4.8% was the lowest reading since the fall of 2021 and, indeed, has fallen quite a bit from its high of 6.6% in September. But again, it has been a slow long road, and disinflation isn&#39;t the same as deflation. Disinflation means prices are rising slower; deflation means prices are falling. Core CPI still needs to lose another 2.8 percentage points from here to get back to levels it was before the pandemic began.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57d090dece5ccce31be615394ecb3e7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The CPI non-seasonally adjusted rose by 0.3% in June and was in line with data in May. When looking at the trend of the non-seasonally adjusted number, it has increased by 3% over the past 12 months, an annualized 5.7% over the past six months, and annualized 4.5% over the past three months. To finish the year with a 3% number, the non-seasonally adjusted index would have to move sideways for the year&#39;s balance. It would need to see a repeat of what happened in the second half of 2022. Again, I think it&#39;s just more to the point that the challenges for inflation become more complicated from here.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48210df1ce0c1262d0ec5d885d5701e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>It will put into question the fantasy the stock market has had now for some time that inflation is just going to vanish and melt away. The CPI swaps market suggests that the CPI inflation y/y rises in July to around 3.2% and then 3.4% in August.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582a09cfc9146a0a895ce39215f1f56b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Over the past six months, CPI swaps have re-rated the inflation rate higher, with values for July rising from 2.3% to 2.4% for August and making inflation a tricky and challenging measure to forecast, even for the market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e91ecf8c1915932f2dcbf482e65182\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"383\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The Cleveland Fed, which has had a history of overstating the CPI, suggests headline inflation of 3.35% in July and 4.9% for core CPI. But again, it provides us with data points indicating the disinflation trend gets bumpier and less consistent as we move forward.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556cceffa458d6cbaa76c1e027db1a22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>It&#39;s tough to understand how the market interoperates data on the day of because of positioning, which may have been looking for core CPI data that came in higher than expected. But initially, the dollar index is falling very hard, and the two-year rate is falling by 12 bps, while equities are rising. But it will be essential to watch how the dollar and rates continue to trade and, more importantly, whether crucial support levels are held.</p><p>Additionally, it will be essential to monitor the spreads for rates because currently, with the two-year rate falling more than the 10-year rate, it has allowed the distance between the 10- and the two-year rate to rise to -88 bps. This spread had hit a low of -110 basis points on July 3. A steeper yield curve can send many messages, from a strengthening economy to one of recession, depending on how the curve steepens.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37e59acb4f74c0ae1271cef597c09e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Yes, it&#39;s very good to see that headline inflation is falling, but it&#39;s also clear that it may get a bit more confusing and complex from this point forward, and based on the data, the hard part for the markets is likely only beginning.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Inflation Battle Is Far From Over, Now The Hard Part Begins</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Inflation Battle Is Far From Over, Now The Hard Part Begins\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-13 23:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616668-the-inflation-battle-is-far-from-over-now-the-hard-part-begins><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The CPI data showed that the non-seasonally adjusted headline inflation rose 3.0% over the past 12 months vs. estimates of 3.1%. The big surprise was the core inflation reading, which reached 4.8%, vs...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616668-the-inflation-battle-is-far-from-over-now-the-hard-part-begins\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616668-the-inflation-battle-is-far-from-over-now-the-hard-part-begins","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2351546103","content_text":"The CPI data showed that the non-seasonally adjusted headline inflation rose 3.0% over the past 12 months vs. estimates of 3.1%. The big surprise was the core inflation reading, which reached 4.8%, vs. analysts looking for an increase of 5.0%.On the surface, the easy part of the inflation cycle appears to have been completed, but where inflation goes from here will be open to debate. The core measure of inflation is undoubtedly better than where they were, but the Fed isn't likely to take much comfort in one month of better data. Core goods and services are still relatively high, even after modest improvement.Core services for June were up 6.1% on a y/y basis, and goods were still up 1.3%. Both are still much higher than the historical average from 2000 until the beginning of 2020, when services averaged 2.8%, and goods averaged around 0%.BloombergOverall, the core CPI of 4.8% was the lowest reading since the fall of 2021 and, indeed, has fallen quite a bit from its high of 6.6% in September. But again, it has been a slow long road, and disinflation isn't the same as deflation. Disinflation means prices are rising slower; deflation means prices are falling. Core CPI still needs to lose another 2.8 percentage points from here to get back to levels it was before the pandemic began.BloombergThe CPI non-seasonally adjusted rose by 0.3% in June and was in line with data in May. When looking at the trend of the non-seasonally adjusted number, it has increased by 3% over the past 12 months, an annualized 5.7% over the past six months, and annualized 4.5% over the past three months. To finish the year with a 3% number, the non-seasonally adjusted index would have to move sideways for the year's balance. It would need to see a repeat of what happened in the second half of 2022. Again, I think it's just more to the point that the challenges for inflation become more complicated from here.BloombergIt will put into question the fantasy the stock market has had now for some time that inflation is just going to vanish and melt away. The CPI swaps market suggests that the CPI inflation y/y rises in July to around 3.2% and then 3.4% in August.BloombergOver the past six months, CPI swaps have re-rated the inflation rate higher, with values for July rising from 2.3% to 2.4% for August and making inflation a tricky and challenging measure to forecast, even for the market.BloombergThe Cleveland Fed, which has had a history of overstating the CPI, suggests headline inflation of 3.35% in July and 4.9% for core CPI. But again, it provides us with data points indicating the disinflation trend gets bumpier and less consistent as we move forward.BloombergIt's tough to understand how the market interoperates data on the day of because of positioning, which may have been looking for core CPI data that came in higher than expected. But initially, the dollar index is falling very hard, and the two-year rate is falling by 12 bps, while equities are rising. But it will be essential to watch how the dollar and rates continue to trade and, more importantly, whether crucial support levels are held.Additionally, it will be essential to monitor the spreads for rates because currently, with the two-year rate falling more than the 10-year rate, it has allowed the distance between the 10- and the two-year rate to rise to -88 bps. This spread had hit a low of -110 basis points on July 3. A steeper yield curve can send many messages, from a strengthening economy to one of recession, depending on how the curve steepens.BloombergYes, it's very good to see that headline inflation is falling, but it's also clear that it may get a bit more confusing and complex from this point forward, and based on the data, the hard part for the markets is likely only beginning.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197806201176256,"gmtCreate":1689326709740,"gmtModify":1689326713528,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fellow investors, please ignore all the white noiseand focus on long term/ doing your own research. Editors/companies like them are paid by companies to inflate their stocks or to cause fear in the market. It is completely biased and they will&nbsp;never care about your money&nbsp;","listText":"Fellow investors, please ignore all the white noiseand focus on long term/ doing your own research. Editors/companies like them are paid by companies to inflate their stocks or to cause fear in the market. It is completely biased and they will&nbsp;never care about your money&nbsp;","text":"Fellow investors, please ignore all the white noiseand focus on long term/ doing your own research. Editors/companies like them are paid by companies to inflate their stocks or to cause fear in the market. It is completely biased and they will never care about your money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197806201176256","repostId":"2351051434","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196775864717320,"gmtCreate":1689076867472,"gmtModify":1689076871372,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good try","listText":"Good try","text":"Good try","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196775864717320","repostId":"2350150577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2350150577","pubTimestamp":1689089244,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2350150577?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-11 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2350150577","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate  always is above the core PCE . But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That's how you win the race.For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.And now let's look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was \"transitory.\" The Fed finally cau","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1040294062\">Inflation fight - The last 100 meters</h2><p>BIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with &#34;last mile&#34; inflation fight, and states that &#34;the next phase of disinflation may become more difficult.&#34;</p><p>The concept of &#34;last mile&#34; is likely based on a marathon. I competed in 400M/800M events, so I&#39;m familiar with the &#34;last 100m&#34; concept - that&#39;s when the lactic acid kicks in and the legs get heavy, but you have to keep moving.</p><p>I was coached by Que McMaster who worked with the great Micheal Johnson (four Olympic gold medals) in his early days at Baylor, and he had a scientific approach to the &#34;last 100m&#34; problem. The data showed that you can sprint at max speed for 20-25 seconds without triggering lactic acid, so you start really fast, and then you switch into the &#34;glide mode.&#34; The secret was to switch from the &#34;glide mode&#34; to the &#34;finish mode&#34; efficiently, so you can cross the finish line at full speed - without ever triggering lactic acid. The strategy was to get ahead of the competition, and if they never catch up, you win, and if they do catch up, you have enough energy to switch into the higher gear in the last 100m and still win.</p><h2 id=\"id_2395002047\">The Fed is doing it all wrong</h2><p>The Fed is essentially in a race against inflation. Drawing lessons from McMaster&#39;s race strategy, the Fed is supposed to get ahead of inflation - and if inflation accelerates, shift into a more aggressive tightening mode until the clear victory. In fact, that was exactly the Fed&#39;s strategy in the 1970s/early 1980s. Here&#39;s the graph that shows core PCE inflation (in blue) and effective Federal Funds rate (in red):</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb07668513c546a65cf80bab6bd6b69\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>What do we see? When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate (red) always is above the core PCE (blue). But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That&#39;s how you win the race.</p><p>For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.</p><p>And now let&#39;s look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was &#34;transitory.&#34; The Fed finally caught up with inflation in May 2023 - and then paused? What a mistake. Why? Because it appears that inflation is about to turn higher. It appears that inflation is being coached by McMaster. So, the &#34;last 100m&#34; of this race will be very interesting.</p><h2 id=\"id_1551354841\">Is inflation turning higher?</h2><p>The BLS will release the inflation data for June 2023. These are the expectations:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a2f496f0dbe4ef7c27b5d5e3f7f4e94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>So, the headline inflation is expected to sharply fall to 3.1%, but the month-over-month inflation is expected to rise to 0.3%. Core CPI is expected to slightly fall to 5%, while the month-over is also expected at 0.3%.</p><p>The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast predicts slightly higher numbers for June, with CPI at 3.2%, and core CPI at 5.1%, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase for both. Thus, we could get a higher-than-expected number for June.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c931382bcb41e7c48d63f5b6a122dc22\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"237\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31204265451c2e58dbfa0e9f64b130c\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"239\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>But, more importantly, Nowcast predicts higher CPI and core CPI for July at 3.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Even more worrisome is the constant 0.4% month-over-month increase for the core CPI, which is consistent with a steady 5% annual core inflation.</p><p>In fact, the annualized quarterly inflation for Q3 is expected to rise to 4.42% from 3% - that&#39;s a sharp upturn in inflation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a799a5b1d21f1242625628e196af499\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\"/></p><p>Cleveland Fed</p><h2 id=\"id_990055891\">Why is inflation rising again?</h2><p>First, inflation is estimated as a 12-month year-over-year increase in prices - so each month you delete the month a year ago from the calculation. Well, last year there was a spike in energy/food prices due to the war in Ukraine, and the peak was in June, so the inflation number for July deletes the June 2022 number - that&#39;s the base effect for the headline CPI, and it looks like this (the big bar is out of the picture for July):</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7196f73499cdc312dfa5f10d6fcc74db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>And this is the month-over-month inflation for core CPI:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b926d12d7445010f0e24578383effa7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"/></p><p>Trading Economics</p><p>The most important data to look at is the fact that over the last six months, the month-over-month core CPI inflation was steady at 0.4%, which is expected to hold for at least the next two months, based on Nowcast. That&#39;s consistent with over 5% annual core CPI - while the target is 2%.</p><p>So, once the base effects are out, we are facing the &#34;last mile&#34; or the &#34;last 100m,&#34; and BIS said this will be a very difficult race. Specifically, BIS is very concerned that there could be a price-wage inflationary spiral in making. When looking at the totality of data, BIS concludes that there&#39;s a high risk of a transition to the 1970s-like high-inflationary mode. More info here.</p><h2 id=\"id_2346461144\">What does the Fed need to do now?</h2><p>The Fed started the race from behind and has been trying to catch up. In order to win the race, the Fed needs to accelerate the monetary policy tightening, well above what is currently expected. Just look at the chart provided above, the red line has to be well above the blue line, there&#39;s no other way. In other words, the Fed might need to surprise the market with a 50bpt hike in July. That&#39;s the transition to the &#34;finish mode,&#34; and that&#39;s what worked in the 1970s. The Taylor rule tool also suggests that the Federal Funds rate should currently be somewhere between 6.6-7.2%.</p><p>The race is over when we see a consistent 0.1%, 0.2% in core PCE for several months. Unfortunately, this might require a very sharp increase in the unemployment rate, possibly above 6%-7%.</p><h2 id=\"id_3478179582\">Implications</h2><p>This is the Fed&#39;s strategy for the &#34;last mile&#34; or &#34;last 100m&#34; of the inflation race: stay behind and wait for inflation to get &#34;tired,&#34; or wait for inflation to get &#34;the lactic acid&#34; and just die out.</p><p>This strategy is unlikely to work, and the Fed will be forced to be more aggressive - to shift into the &#34;finish mode.&#34; However, this will likely cause a deep recession. In fact, there are already signs that growth is stalling or contracting based on the real GDI measure, and yet inflation is expected to turn higher after the June reading.</p><p>The BIS report is particularly worried about the housing sector if the Fed is forced to hike 200bpt above the May rate to above 6%. In this scenario, the housing prices would drop below their 2012 level or more than 33% from the peak. This might be required to bring inflation to 2%.</p><p>The financial sector (XLF) is at the center of the upcoming crisis, given the expected fall in housing prices, and the expected solvency issues in the commercial real estate (XLRE).</p><p>Regional banks (KRE) are likely to be most vulnerable, given their heavy exposure to commercial real estate and mortgages. In addition, the further expected increase in the Federal Funds rate will continue to increase their cost of capital and accelerate the deposit outflows. Thus, it&#39;s likely that many more regional banks would fail.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI Preview: Disinflation Is Finished - Inflation To Start Rising Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-11 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Inflation fight - The last 100 metersBIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with \"last mile\" inflation fight, and states that \"the next phase of disinflation may become more ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616102-cpi-preview-disinflation-finished-inflation-to-start-rising-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2350150577","content_text":"Inflation fight - The last 100 metersBIS Annual Economic Report 2023 discusses the macro challenges with \"last mile\" inflation fight, and states that \"the next phase of disinflation may become more difficult.\"The concept of \"last mile\" is likely based on a marathon. I competed in 400M/800M events, so I'm familiar with the \"last 100m\" concept - that's when the lactic acid kicks in and the legs get heavy, but you have to keep moving.I was coached by Que McMaster who worked with the great Micheal Johnson (four Olympic gold medals) in his early days at Baylor, and he had a scientific approach to the \"last 100m\" problem. The data showed that you can sprint at max speed for 20-25 seconds without triggering lactic acid, so you start really fast, and then you switch into the \"glide mode.\" The secret was to switch from the \"glide mode\" to the \"finish mode\" efficiently, so you can cross the finish line at full speed - without ever triggering lactic acid. The strategy was to get ahead of the competition, and if they never catch up, you win, and if they do catch up, you have enough energy to switch into the higher gear in the last 100m and still win.The Fed is doing it all wrongThe Fed is essentially in a race against inflation. Drawing lessons from McMaster's race strategy, the Fed is supposed to get ahead of inflation - and if inflation accelerates, shift into a more aggressive tightening mode until the clear victory. In fact, that was exactly the Fed's strategy in the 1970s/early 1980s. Here's the graph that shows core PCE inflation (in blue) and effective Federal Funds rate (in red):FREDWhat do we see? When inflation is rising, the Federal Funds rate (red) always is above the core PCE (blue). But more importantly, near the peaks in inflation, the Fed would accelerate the hikes - well above the PCE inflation. That's how you win the race.For example, in March 1980, the Fed hiked from 14% to 17%, while core PCE was at a peak of 9.3%.And now let's look at the current situation. The Fed let inflation get ahead by far in 2022 by wrongly assuming that the inflationary spike was \"transitory.\" The Fed finally caught up with inflation in May 2023 - and then paused? What a mistake. Why? Because it appears that inflation is about to turn higher. It appears that inflation is being coached by McMaster. So, the \"last 100m\" of this race will be very interesting.Is inflation turning higher?The BLS will release the inflation data for June 2023. These are the expectations:Trading EconomicsSo, the headline inflation is expected to sharply fall to 3.1%, but the month-over-month inflation is expected to rise to 0.3%. Core CPI is expected to slightly fall to 5%, while the month-over is also expected at 0.3%.The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast predicts slightly higher numbers for June, with CPI at 3.2%, and core CPI at 5.1%, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase for both. Thus, we could get a higher-than-expected number for June.Cleveland FedCleveland FedBut, more importantly, Nowcast predicts higher CPI and core CPI for July at 3.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Even more worrisome is the constant 0.4% month-over-month increase for the core CPI, which is consistent with a steady 5% annual core inflation.In fact, the annualized quarterly inflation for Q3 is expected to rise to 4.42% from 3% - that's a sharp upturn in inflation.Cleveland FedWhy is inflation rising again?First, inflation is estimated as a 12-month year-over-year increase in prices - so each month you delete the month a year ago from the calculation. Well, last year there was a spike in energy/food prices due to the war in Ukraine, and the peak was in June, so the inflation number for July deletes the June 2022 number - that's the base effect for the headline CPI, and it looks like this (the big bar is out of the picture for July):Trading EconomicsAnd this is the month-over-month inflation for core CPI:Trading EconomicsThe most important data to look at is the fact that over the last six months, the month-over-month core CPI inflation was steady at 0.4%, which is expected to hold for at least the next two months, based on Nowcast. That's consistent with over 5% annual core CPI - while the target is 2%.So, once the base effects are out, we are facing the \"last mile\" or the \"last 100m,\" and BIS said this will be a very difficult race. Specifically, BIS is very concerned that there could be a price-wage inflationary spiral in making. When looking at the totality of data, BIS concludes that there's a high risk of a transition to the 1970s-like high-inflationary mode. More info here.What does the Fed need to do now?The Fed started the race from behind and has been trying to catch up. In order to win the race, the Fed needs to accelerate the monetary policy tightening, well above what is currently expected. Just look at the chart provided above, the red line has to be well above the blue line, there's no other way. In other words, the Fed might need to surprise the market with a 50bpt hike in July. That's the transition to the \"finish mode,\" and that's what worked in the 1970s. The Taylor rule tool also suggests that the Federal Funds rate should currently be somewhere between 6.6-7.2%.The race is over when we see a consistent 0.1%, 0.2% in core PCE for several months. Unfortunately, this might require a very sharp increase in the unemployment rate, possibly above 6%-7%.ImplicationsThis is the Fed's strategy for the \"last mile\" or \"last 100m\" of the inflation race: stay behind and wait for inflation to get \"tired,\" or wait for inflation to get \"the lactic acid\" and just die out.This strategy is unlikely to work, and the Fed will be forced to be more aggressive - to shift into the \"finish mode.\" However, this will likely cause a deep recession. In fact, there are already signs that growth is stalling or contracting based on the real GDI measure, and yet inflation is expected to turn higher after the June reading.The BIS report is particularly worried about the housing sector if the Fed is forced to hike 200bpt above the May rate to above 6%. In this scenario, the housing prices would drop below their 2012 level or more than 33% from the peak. This might be required to bring inflation to 2%.The financial sector (XLF) is at the center of the upcoming crisis, given the expected fall in housing prices, and the expected solvency issues in the commercial real estate (XLRE).Regional banks (KRE) are likely to be most vulnerable, given their heavy exposure to commercial real estate and mortgages. In addition, the further expected increase in the Federal Funds rate will continue to increase their cost of capital and accelerate the deposit outflows. Thus, it's likely that many more regional banks would fail.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197804740030512,"gmtCreate":1689326571108,"gmtModify":1689327682017,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can you make up your mind. One moment you claim inflation is back, the next day you say it is gone. What a loser","listText":"Can you make up your mind. One moment you claim inflation is back, the next day you say it is gone. What a loser","text":"Can you make up your mind. One moment you claim inflation is back, the next day you say it is gone. What a loser","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197804740030512","repostId":"2351051434","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2351051434","pubTimestamp":1689348364,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2351051434?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-14 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Is Nearly Dead Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2351051434","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Ibrahim Akcengiz While the market constantly debates whether the Fed needs to hike interest rates again, the debate shouldn't really exist anymore. The CPI and PPI data this week were weak compared to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While the market constantly debates whether the Fed needs to hike interest rates again, the debate shouldn&#39;t really exist anymore. The CPI and PPI data this week were weak compared to expectations, and the market knows housing data mis-states CPI core inflation, yet the market still accepts the Fed hiking rates again in July. Regardless, the S&amp;P 500 (SP500) has already soared back near all-time highs, making small-cap stocks more appealing here.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a827c072df32eacfa82c20cb7a8448\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p>Source: Finviz</p><h2 id=\"id_3773606846\">Old Inflation Data Falling</h2><p>First, CPI remains at reported elevated levels due primarily to housing data that accounts for 30% of the index. The index printed the smallest one-month increase in inflation data since August 2021.</p><ul><li><p>CPI rose 0.2% in June, less than the 0.3% increase expected, but more than the 0.1% increase in May.</p></li><li><p>CPI YoY rose 3.0% vs. +3.1% expected and 4.0% prior.</p></li><li><p>Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in June, less than the 0.3% increase expected and the 0.4% rise in May.</p></li><li><p>Core CPI YoY rose 4.8% vs. 5.0% expected and 5.3% prior.</p></li></ul><p>Both the headline and core CPI data continue to collapse. Consumer prices are falling from elevated levels, but the prices aren&#39;t falling fast enough for the Fed.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/739938a9eec5d268002c938a8a231d9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><p>Source: WSJ</p><p>Housing continues to be the major headwind, yet investors know housing isn&#39;t an issue for inflation any more outside of the equivalents rent number utilized by the Fed. The shelter portion of the report was up 0.4% in June from May and accounted for 70% of the hike in core CPI inflation.</p><p>Second, the encouraging Producer Price Index data from today is more promising in providing the Fed with a reason to continue pausing rate hikes. The June data was as follows:</p><ul><li><p>PPI crept up 0.1%, less than the 0.2% increase expected and compared with a 0.3% decline in May.</p></li><li><p>PPI YoY basis rose only 0.1%, less than the 0.5% rise expected, and cooler than the 1.1% increase in May.</p></li><li><p>Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also edged up 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% in May.</p></li><li><p>Core PPI YoY rose 2.4% vs. 2.8% expected and 2.8% prior.</p></li></ul><p>The core PPI favored by the Fed is already generally within the 2% target range of the Fed. Core PPI only rose at a 1.2% annualized rate in June and is only up 2.4% over the last year, with clear signs inflation threats for producers are over and will feed into CPI.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954197fa191aeb739d4dc7c1fd6f5bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p>Source: Twitter - Carl Quintanilla</p><p>Any economist or investor should look at the above chart with knowledge of the lagging impact of prior Fed rate hikes of 500 basis points and realize inflation is under control.</p><h3 id=\"id_891224888\">Modern Inflation Data</h3><p>While both the CPI and PPI reports show positive trends for inflation rates decelerating, the Truflation data already has &#34;real&#34; CPI inflation at only 2.47%. The inflation report uses modern consumer and spending data sets to deliver verifiable daily inflation indexes using over 10 million data points.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbf5f0659ddae7447e364881a30e0042\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>Source: Truflation</p><p>The crucial housing data is already trending down per Truflation. The modern inflation index has housing inflation down 0.7% versus mid-June, with a combination of owned dwellings and rented dwellings prices down 2.5% in the last quarter alone.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a062700bfaf759fda9aa58ede4356d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"491\"/></p><p>Source: Truflation</p><p>Historically, the market always thought the Fed had more data than the market, but investors should now realize these experts are mostly relying on outdated metrics like equivalents rent. The government officials are using data leading to inflation data lagging the real-time market numbers.</p><p>The signs inflation problems are coming to an end and rate hikes are over has the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) stocks rallying. The small-cap stocks have underperformed big returns in the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last year, providing a preference for the small-cap stocks into year-end.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d43b2659c2bff80329dad2474f84c9b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"483\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><h2 id=\"id_319356813\">Takeaway</h2><p>The key investor takeaway in that the data using modern inflation data (and even PPI) show inflation is down to a point where the Fed wouldn&#39;t normally need to hike interest rates anymore. The Fed has already hiked rates 500 basis points, and the 6 to 12 month lag on rate hikes still haven&#39;t fully impacted economic data.</p><p>After a big rally in the major indexes of large cap stocks focused on the Magnificent Seven stocks, investors should have a preference for small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Is Nearly Dead Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Is Nearly Dead Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-14 23:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616996-inflation-is-nearly-dead-already><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While the market constantly debates whether the Fed needs to hike interest rates again, the debate shouldn't really exist anymore. The CPI and PPI data this week were weak compared to expectations, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616996-inflation-is-nearly-dead-already\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616996-inflation-is-nearly-dead-already","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2351051434","content_text":"While the market constantly debates whether the Fed needs to hike interest rates again, the debate shouldn't really exist anymore. The CPI and PPI data this week were weak compared to expectations, and the market knows housing data mis-states CPI core inflation, yet the market still accepts the Fed hiking rates again in July. Regardless, the S&P 500 (SP500) has already soared back near all-time highs, making small-cap stocks more appealing here.Source: FinvizOld Inflation Data FallingFirst, CPI remains at reported elevated levels due primarily to housing data that accounts for 30% of the index. The index printed the smallest one-month increase in inflation data since August 2021.CPI rose 0.2% in June, less than the 0.3% increase expected, but more than the 0.1% increase in May.CPI YoY rose 3.0% vs. +3.1% expected and 4.0% prior.Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in June, less than the 0.3% increase expected and the 0.4% rise in May.Core CPI YoY rose 4.8% vs. 5.0% expected and 5.3% prior.Both the headline and core CPI data continue to collapse. Consumer prices are falling from elevated levels, but the prices aren't falling fast enough for the Fed.Source: WSJHousing continues to be the major headwind, yet investors know housing isn't an issue for inflation any more outside of the equivalents rent number utilized by the Fed. The shelter portion of the report was up 0.4% in June from May and accounted for 70% of the hike in core CPI inflation.Second, the encouraging Producer Price Index data from today is more promising in providing the Fed with a reason to continue pausing rate hikes. The June data was as follows:PPI crept up 0.1%, less than the 0.2% increase expected and compared with a 0.3% decline in May.PPI YoY basis rose only 0.1%, less than the 0.5% rise expected, and cooler than the 1.1% increase in May.Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also edged up 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.2% in May.Core PPI YoY rose 2.4% vs. 2.8% expected and 2.8% prior.The core PPI favored by the Fed is already generally within the 2% target range of the Fed. Core PPI only rose at a 1.2% annualized rate in June and is only up 2.4% over the last year, with clear signs inflation threats for producers are over and will feed into CPI.Source: Twitter - Carl QuintanillaAny economist or investor should look at the above chart with knowledge of the lagging impact of prior Fed rate hikes of 500 basis points and realize inflation is under control.Modern Inflation DataWhile both the CPI and PPI reports show positive trends for inflation rates decelerating, the Truflation data already has \"real\" CPI inflation at only 2.47%. The inflation report uses modern consumer and spending data sets to deliver verifiable daily inflation indexes using over 10 million data points.Source: TruflationThe crucial housing data is already trending down per Truflation. The modern inflation index has housing inflation down 0.7% versus mid-June, with a combination of owned dwellings and rented dwellings prices down 2.5% in the last quarter alone.Source: TruflationHistorically, the market always thought the Fed had more data than the market, but investors should now realize these experts are mostly relying on outdated metrics like equivalents rent. The government officials are using data leading to inflation data lagging the real-time market numbers.The signs inflation problems are coming to an end and rate hikes are over has the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) stocks rallying. The small-cap stocks have underperformed big returns in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last year, providing a preference for the small-cap stocks into year-end.Data by YChartsTakeawayThe key investor takeaway in that the data using modern inflation data (and even PPI) show inflation is down to a point where the Fed wouldn't normally need to hike interest rates anymore. The Fed has already hiked rates 500 basis points, and the 6 to 12 month lag on rate hikes still haven't fully impacted economic data.After a big rally in the major indexes of large cap stocks focused on the Magnificent Seven stocks, investors should have a preference for small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080618282,"gmtCreate":1649885183553,"gmtModify":1676534596009,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FSLR\">$First Solar(FSLR)$</a>🙂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FSLR\">$First Solar(FSLR)$</a>🙂","text":"$First Solar(FSLR)$🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a734fc25910c8ae69a23ef24425d2b6f","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080618282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014464751,"gmtCreate":1649712024462,"gmtModify":1676534553230,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MRK\">$Merck(MRK)$</a>🙂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MRK\">$Merck(MRK)$</a>🙂","text":"$Merck(MRK)$🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e205e68ec40c7ff1c610b3cb0b7d04ad","width":"750","height":"2553"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014464751","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983704614,"gmtCreate":1666314929938,"gmtModify":1676537739231,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7a9ecf6f096ae996561c622bd0970865","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983704614","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":313714581327880,"gmtCreate":1717628880665,"gmtModify":1717647123467,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$&nbsp;</a> Held since 2022. Selling shovels in this AI hype 😋","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSM\">$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$&nbsp;</a> Held since 2022. Selling shovels in this AI hype 😋","text":"$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Held since 2022. Selling shovels in this AI hype 😋","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63a6d28bf0008b4d1cad14843c50ff26","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/313714581327880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":261922253512872,"gmtCreate":1704980709779,"gmtModify":1704980714410,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Terrible data and sticky inflation. Looks like 3 rate cuts for this year will be unrealistic. Tbh it was already unrealistic to begin with haha&nbsp;","listText":"Terrible data and sticky inflation. Looks like 3 rate cuts for this year will be unrealistic. Tbh it was already unrealistic to begin with haha&nbsp;","text":"Terrible data and sticky inflation. Looks like 3 rate cuts for this year will be unrealistic. Tbh it was already unrealistic to begin with haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/261922253512872","repostId":"1189816198","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9015486174,"gmtCreate":1649545279021,"gmtModify":1676534526112,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RW0U.SI\">$MAPLETREE NORTH ASIA COMM TR(RW0U.SI)$</a>🙂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RW0U.SI\">$MAPLETREE NORTH ASIA COMM TR(RW0U.SI)$</a>🙂","text":"$MAPLETREE NORTH ASIA COMM TR(RW0U.SI)$🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8e9924f0a9c0084bf55687c1849ea07","width":"750","height":"1854"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015486174","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196278251167912,"gmtCreate":1688957038018,"gmtModify":1688957042045,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good try","listText":"Good try","text":"Good try","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196278251167912","repostId":"2350978771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2350978771","pubTimestamp":1688947500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2350978771?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-10 08:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market's Inflation Fantasy Ends This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2350978771","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"This week will mark a big turning point for the stock market and investors still living in fantasy land and their view on inflation. Yes, CPI for June is expected to rise by just 3.1% y/y when it is r","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a84c2a9d182b5f96a555cbc26b59ae\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p><p>This week will mark a big turning point for the stock market and investors still living in fantasy land and their view on inflation. Yes, CPI for June is expected to rise by just 3.1% y/y when it is reported on Wednesday, but based on several factors, that could be the low print for the rest of the year.</p><p>The equity market has fantasized about a Fed rate-cutting cycle for nearly a year now, and that is going to an end come Wednesday, when the market realizes that the disinflation process of the past six months is over and inflation begins to rebound.</p><p>For June, analysts see the headline CPI rising by 0.3% m/m, faster than last month&#39;s 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% m/m, down from a gain of 0.4% last month, and by 5.0% y/y, down from 5.3% in May.</p><h2>Inflation Is Already Back</h2><p>Yes, the June headline print of 3.1% will be the lowest reading since March 2021, but let&#39;s not forget that base effects are primarily at play here, following a very aggressive rise in the CPI in May and June last year where the disinflation tailwinds of the past 12 months will now become inflation tailwinds moving forward.</p><p>The non-seasonally adjusted consumer price index is used to determine the year-over-year changes in the inflation rate. It is clear and easy to see that the CPI flatlined from June 2022 until December 2022. But more importantly, it has reaccelerated since January 2023.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d9f04e382d9aaad78722c52bd0633ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>Therefore, as we move forward and the index rises, it is compared to a value that stagnated for the next six months. In fact, for the first five months of 2023, the CPI non-seasonal adjusted has risen 2.47% or at an annualized rate of 6.1%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a823caef17acb4d79dc915edaf3f5467\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>CPI inflation swaps agree with current analysts&#39; estimates and are pricing a 3.0% y/y increase for June. Inflation swaps have been unchanged now for weeks. However, what is important here is not the rate of change; it is what the CPI swaps imply the month-over-month non-seasonality adjusted CPI change in June will be.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09703305ed61bee99988fdc67dc81daa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>To achieve a gain of 3.0% y/y in June, the CPI index needs to rise by 0.4% versus May. A gain of 0.4% m/m increase in June would mean that for the first six months of 2023, the CPI has risen by 5.9% on an annualized basis. This means that inflation has returned in 2023 and that this disinflation process we have witnessed over the past year has slowed and reversed to some degree.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90f8b0938c07c36f4e69efa8b7bcb5a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><h2>Inflation May Re-Accelerate</h2><p>The sticky nature of inflation and the slower-than-expected disinflation process is partially due to services inflation being sticky and goods inflation staying higher than its pre-pandemic levels. CPI goods inflation before the pandemic averaged about 0% growth from 2000 until 2020, while services inflation averaged roughly 2.8% year-over-year growth. However, services CPI is currently around 6.6%, while CPI goods inflation is presently about 2%. The lack of disinflation in goods and services is the primary reason inflation has struggled to come down, as many expected.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf81dc6a8411c9744c3764d2e9005f4e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>To make matters worse, the biggest driver of disinflation over the past year has been the collapsing energy prices, but even those comparables are about to get much harder not only heading into the end of the year but also because it seems that commodity prices such as oil and gasoline may begin to rise again, as both of those commodities technically look like they are ready to make a move higher. It will only take a minor move in the price of gasoline to become additive to inflation in the second half of the year.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0535620de7748ed32d8c0f82b04a78f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>Additionally, it will only take a move into the mid-80s for oil prices to become additive to inflation into the year&#39;s second half. Given the recent consolidation in oil prices in the low 70s, a move into the mid-80s is the next resistance level for the commodity.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad1eb166c03a0507a02646fda9adef81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>Additionally, health insurance inflation which has added a tailwind to falling inflation rates will reset. Bloomberg estimates that health insurance costs will go from a providing 2.8 bps m/m drag on inflation to a 0.7 bps contributor to inflation in the autumn.</p><h2>Higher Interest Rates Are A Problem For Stocks</h2><p>The prospects for inflation to remain elevated in the second half of 2023 will also mean that rates which are now steadily rising, are likely to continue to rise, aided by the stronger-than-expected labor market and economy. Following the June job report, rates on the longer end of the yield curve have already broken out. This week&#39;s CPI inflation print and the realization that inflation may be heading higher throughout 2023 could push yields back to the October 2022 highs.</p><p>The 10-year rate has broken through key resistance at 3.9% and is testing another resistance level at 4.1%. But once the 10-year pushes past 4.1%, there is room to return to its October highs.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d5ec7991462752a0eab325558d59847\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>Meanwhile, the 30-year rate has also pushed above resistance at 4% and broken above a critical downtrend. The 30-year has made much more progress than the 10-year and could already be on its way back to March&#39;s highs.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ecae9cfeaa048a5571e0a32d9847885\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>The higher nominal rates rise, the higher real yields will increase, and real yields are the most significant driver for stock valuations. However, more recently, there has been a massive separation between real rates, especially the NASDAQ 100. The spread between the NASDAQ 100 earnings yields has fallen to just 1.2%, the lowest the spread has been since the mid-2000s. It suggests that the NASDAQ 100 is very expensive compared to real yields and is a significant separation from how the market has valued stocks over the past decade.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e95f96d635266710ad83ff8442426fb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p></p><p>The disinflation process of the past six months will be a thing of the past come Wednesday, and the bond market has already been adjusting to the prospects of a strong economy and a higher inflation rate. However, the equity market has detached itself, thinking the inflation problem has been solved and that the Fed would be cutting rates. Instead, quite the opposite is happening, which means the days of the stock market ignoring reality are here, and fantasy time is over.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market's Inflation Fantasy Ends This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market's Inflation Fantasy Ends This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-10 08:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615927-stock-markets-inflation-fantasy-ends-this-week><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This week will mark a big turning point for the stock market and investors still living in fantasy land and their view on inflation. Yes, CPI for June is expected to rise by just 3.1% y/y when it is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615927-stock-markets-inflation-fantasy-ends-this-week\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615927-stock-markets-inflation-fantasy-ends-this-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2350978771","content_text":"This week will mark a big turning point for the stock market and investors still living in fantasy land and their view on inflation. Yes, CPI for June is expected to rise by just 3.1% y/y when it is reported on Wednesday, but based on several factors, that could be the low print for the rest of the year.The equity market has fantasized about a Fed rate-cutting cycle for nearly a year now, and that is going to an end come Wednesday, when the market realizes that the disinflation process of the past six months is over and inflation begins to rebound.For June, analysts see the headline CPI rising by 0.3% m/m, faster than last month's 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% m/m, down from a gain of 0.4% last month, and by 5.0% y/y, down from 5.3% in May.Inflation Is Already BackYes, the June headline print of 3.1% will be the lowest reading since March 2021, but let's not forget that base effects are primarily at play here, following a very aggressive rise in the CPI in May and June last year where the disinflation tailwinds of the past 12 months will now become inflation tailwinds moving forward.The non-seasonally adjusted consumer price index is used to determine the year-over-year changes in the inflation rate. It is clear and easy to see that the CPI flatlined from June 2022 until December 2022. But more importantly, it has reaccelerated since January 2023.BloombergTherefore, as we move forward and the index rises, it is compared to a value that stagnated for the next six months. In fact, for the first five months of 2023, the CPI non-seasonal adjusted has risen 2.47% or at an annualized rate of 6.1%.BloombergCPI inflation swaps agree with current analysts' estimates and are pricing a 3.0% y/y increase for June. Inflation swaps have been unchanged now for weeks. However, what is important here is not the rate of change; it is what the CPI swaps imply the month-over-month non-seasonality adjusted CPI change in June will be.BloombergTo achieve a gain of 3.0% y/y in June, the CPI index needs to rise by 0.4% versus May. A gain of 0.4% m/m increase in June would mean that for the first six months of 2023, the CPI has risen by 5.9% on an annualized basis. This means that inflation has returned in 2023 and that this disinflation process we have witnessed over the past year has slowed and reversed to some degree.BloombergInflation May Re-AccelerateThe sticky nature of inflation and the slower-than-expected disinflation process is partially due to services inflation being sticky and goods inflation staying higher than its pre-pandemic levels. CPI goods inflation before the pandemic averaged about 0% growth from 2000 until 2020, while services inflation averaged roughly 2.8% year-over-year growth. However, services CPI is currently around 6.6%, while CPI goods inflation is presently about 2%. The lack of disinflation in goods and services is the primary reason inflation has struggled to come down, as many expected.BloombergTo make matters worse, the biggest driver of disinflation over the past year has been the collapsing energy prices, but even those comparables are about to get much harder not only heading into the end of the year but also because it seems that commodity prices such as oil and gasoline may begin to rise again, as both of those commodities technically look like they are ready to make a move higher. It will only take a minor move in the price of gasoline to become additive to inflation in the second half of the year.BloombergAdditionally, it will only take a move into the mid-80s for oil prices to become additive to inflation into the year's second half. Given the recent consolidation in oil prices in the low 70s, a move into the mid-80s is the next resistance level for the commodity.BloombergAdditionally, health insurance inflation which has added a tailwind to falling inflation rates will reset. Bloomberg estimates that health insurance costs will go from a providing 2.8 bps m/m drag on inflation to a 0.7 bps contributor to inflation in the autumn.Higher Interest Rates Are A Problem For StocksThe prospects for inflation to remain elevated in the second half of 2023 will also mean that rates which are now steadily rising, are likely to continue to rise, aided by the stronger-than-expected labor market and economy. Following the June job report, rates on the longer end of the yield curve have already broken out. This week's CPI inflation print and the realization that inflation may be heading higher throughout 2023 could push yields back to the October 2022 highs.The 10-year rate has broken through key resistance at 3.9% and is testing another resistance level at 4.1%. But once the 10-year pushes past 4.1%, there is room to return to its October highs.BloombergMeanwhile, the 30-year rate has also pushed above resistance at 4% and broken above a critical downtrend. The 30-year has made much more progress than the 10-year and could already be on its way back to March's highs.BloombergThe higher nominal rates rise, the higher real yields will increase, and real yields are the most significant driver for stock valuations. However, more recently, there has been a massive separation between real rates, especially the NASDAQ 100. The spread between the NASDAQ 100 earnings yields has fallen to just 1.2%, the lowest the spread has been since the mid-2000s. It suggests that the NASDAQ 100 is very expensive compared to real yields and is a significant separation from how the market has valued stocks over the past decade.BloombergThe disinflation process of the past six months will be a thing of the past come Wednesday, and the bond market has already been adjusting to the prospects of a strong economy and a higher inflation rate. However, the equity market has detached itself, thinking the inflation problem has been solved and that the Fed would be cutting rates. Instead, quite the opposite is happening, which means the days of the stock market ignoring reality are here, and fantasy time is over.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911549689,"gmtCreate":1664237850441,"gmtModify":1676537414971,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>🙂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>🙂","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/60108e9e667a73ffd48a7ba7530609b0","width":"828","height":"2878"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911549689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930243822,"gmtCreate":1661984769272,"gmtModify":1676536614928,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>🫡","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>🫡","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$🫡","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b5aebb6d9801b3bcecea03159a1b431","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930243822","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025057987,"gmtCreate":1653608583249,"gmtModify":1676535312000,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a>🙂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a>🙂","text":"$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29bc774ea23292bbc453274f6e680c35","width":"750","height":"1370"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025057987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069798793,"gmtCreate":1651362038526,"gmtModify":1676534893498,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BA\">$Boeing(BA)$</a>🙂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BA\">$Boeing(BA)$</a>🙂","text":"$Boeing(BA)$🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d73b6431343683050a67e89652dd9043","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069798793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060562768,"gmtCreate":1651181670707,"gmtModify":1676534862916,"author":{"id":"4091449914273180","authorId":"4091449914273180","name":"CapybaraNDU","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/45f43895513a14a93d9fef520100f642","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091449914273180","idStr":"4091449914273180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FSLR\">$First Solar(FSLR)$</a>🙂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FSLR\">$First Solar(FSLR)$</a>🙂","text":"$First Solar(FSLR)$🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5a1e85e2787323c848ac62067423a4a","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060562768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}