Jojolee personal page - To The Moon

Jojolee

Jojolee

No personal profile

4Follow

2Followers

0Topic

0Badge

11-06

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I think it'll $300 today, then eventually it'll $250 on monday. Special profit just for election day hahaha

2022-07-15

Good read, appreciate the analysis

Apple Vs. The FAANGs (Technical Analysis)

2022-07-11

Good read!

Ford Is Destined To Double

2022-07-01

Good article, totally agree

Shopify: Stock Split Gimmick Didn't Work

2022-06-27

P/E is high, but still a stock for the future. Retracement is good

CrowdStrike: A Bargain, But This Is Not The Bottom

2022-06-26

One of the best, if not the best teachers when it comes to investing

Warren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market

2022-06-24

Now is a good time to get your toes wet, then buy when the real recession hits. Apple issuch a household name its very hard to see it not be a long term success/stock for the future

Is Now A Good Time To Buy Apple Stock As It Dips?

2022-06-23

Anything below $125 is a steal, even more so $117 hahaha

The Bites Keep Coming For Apple

2022-06-16

Happy birthday Tiger!!

@TigerEvents:Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out "T.I.G.E.R" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi

2022-04-18

A controversial stock for sure, but I'm def leaning more towards the bullish stance

Nvidia: Assessing The Paradox Between Strong Fundamentals And A Weakening Share Price

2022-04-14

If you're trading long term, this predicted drop will be a delicious opportunity

NIO: Risks Are Growing

2022-04-12

Time to earn some moolas

@TigerEvents:🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!

2022-03-31

Good article for the short term of the stock, definitely one to watch for the next decade or so

Will Nvidia Stock Retest The Highs, The Lows or Both?

2021-09-02

Great article

Happy Birthday Warren Buffett: What makes him so famous and successful

2021-08-28

Excellent article

Not every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4091616308316100","uuid":"4091616308316100","gmtCreate":1628513243954,"gmtModify":1640072697152,"name":"Jojolee","pinyin":"jojolee","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":4,"tweetSize":18,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.05.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.11.15","exceedPercentage":"80.99%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":368113759412376,"gmtCreate":1730889275942,"gmtModify":1730889280147,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; I think it'll&nbsp;$300 today, then eventually it'll $250 on monday. Special profit just for election day hahaha","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; I think it'll&nbsp;$300 today, then eventually it'll $250 on monday. Special profit just for election day hahaha","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I think it'll $300 today, then eventually it'll $250 on monday. Special profit just for election day hahaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368113759412376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076476053,"gmtCreate":1657897978972,"gmtModify":1676536079084,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read, appreciate the analysis","listText":"Good read, appreciate the analysis","text":"Good read, appreciate the analysis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076476053","repostId":"1136389178","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136389178","pubTimestamp":1657895698,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136389178?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 22:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Vs. The FAANGs (Technical Analysis)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136389178","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company’s operating margi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Apple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company’s operating margin of 30.82% and the net profit margin of 25.71% are excellent.</li><li>In regards to the S&amp;P 500, Apple currently takes up 6.85% of the weighting in the S&amp;P 500, and therefore gets 6.85% of funds going into the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>I think the odds are high that we at least attempt a double bottom, if not a push towards 3500 SPX before we can start looking up.</li></ul><p>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) became the most valuable company in the world through creating and dominating the smart phone/mobile microtrend. As the majority of the global community went from zero smart phones to it becoming a necessity in their lives, Apple became the most valuable company in the world. However, like all trends, eventually it reaches the point of saturation. Instead of hypergrowth, we see competitors fight over existing customers on lower cost goods as revenue growth moves into a more consistent yet slower rate of change.</p><p>Apple epitomizes what it means to be both a good value stock and a good tech stock with its strong margins, outsized cash flows, stable balance sheet, and a loyal base of customers supporting the brand.</p><p>Apple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company&#39;s operating margin of 30.82% and the net profit margin of 25.71% are excellent, while most tech companies are currently struggling with the bottom line. It also has an outstanding free cash flow margin of 26.37%. The company has also been shareholder-friendly since it consistently repurchases shares.</p><p>We have not owned Apple because it is simply not involved in any of the new tech micro trends that will likely give us the next Google (GOOG,GOOGL), Apple, or Amazon (AMZN). However, this does not mean that Apple does not deserve a place within a portfolio.</p><p>Apple is an outsized beneficiary to passive investing. For those that do not want to pick stocks, and instead just own the index, Apple takes up the largest portion of this money. For example, if you don&#39;t want to own tech companies and instead want simply exposure through Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), 23.47% of that money goes to Apple.</p><p>In regards to the S&amp;P 500, which is the most passively owned index through various mutual funds and ETFs, Apple currently takes up 6.85% of the weighting in the S&amp;P 500, and therefore gets 6.85% of funds going into the S&amp;P 500. This is more than UnitedHealth Group, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B), Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), Nvidia (NVDA), and Exxon (XOM) combined!</p><p>Because of how its history of share buybacks, healthy Free Cash Flow, and its very large market cap, it remains a darling within institutional funds that are managing billions. In fact, as of June 30th, 16.07 billion shares outstanding are owned by institutions. This means that roughly 98% of all shares outstanding are owned by institutions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a070616b096f9ca94ef55ab58692ee4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p>Even though it is not in the forefront of AI, Machine Learning, Cloud or Big Data, it is uniquely setup to capture an outsized portion of passive investors&#39; funds as well as institutional funds. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine the broad markets making new highs without Apple.</p><p>Technically, Apple has exhibited a level of relative strength in this bounce that is what you want to see in confirming a broad market trend reversal. It has reclaimed the $145 resistance level, which is a key supply zone to take back. Whether it will hold it is the question?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb3d2ed0722cc7199520096730319d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p>The fact that Apple has reclaimed the $145 level is a show of strength, regardless of the weakness in the momentum. If the other FAANGs were showing the level of strength APPL is right now by reclaiming key resistance levels, that would be encouraging that a meaningful low is underway. However, we are just not seeing that right now.</p><p><b>Google</b></p><p>We recently wrote about how Google (Alphabet) is our second favorite FAANG. In a cookie-less world due to Apple&#39;s notable change to its IDFA, owners of 1st party data, like Google, are setting themselves up to further dominate. This catalyst, coupled with its positioning within the AI microtrend, is the reason why it reserves a position within our portfolio.</p><p>This also lines up with the technical chart on a long-term basis. Google is the healthiest chart amongst the FAANGs, as it is comfortably above its critical support zone at $1800. As long as any additional weakness is seen here, above this critical support suggests that GOOGL is one of the FAANGs that is likely to make a new high.</p><p>However, over the next month, it appears that Google is tracing a bear flag pattern. This is a common pattern that we see in 4th waves, which suggests we need one more wave to complete the 5 wave pattern in Google&#39;s drawdown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4727cac13e692a2e81039e8b36e9486\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p><b>Netflix</b></p><p>NFLX is another FAANG that we believe has a higher probability of making a new high in the next growth cycle than most believe. While market was focused on NFLX reporting a subscriber miss of 200,000, it failed to recognize that NFLX is on track to monetize around 100 million new subscribers who are sneaking onto the platform through shared passwords. We wrote about this extensively in a recently report, and as a result has entered into our matrix of potential positions to own going into the next growth cycle.</p><p>We believe NFLX is undervalued based on where this monetization will take its revenue in the coming quarters, and this is showing up in the chart on a long-term basis. However, over the next month, Netflix looks to be tracing a bear pennant pattern/triangle pattern. These are common in 4th waves, suggesting one more push lower to complete the drawdown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6d052cb9d09456608464cf676403f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p><b>Microsoft</b></p><p>Microsoft (MSFT) is one of the FAAMGs that we believe will continue to exhibit dominance into future tech trends. It is one of the leaders in the on-going cloud trend, and is also setting itself up to lead in edge computing and machine learning. We believe Microsoft has multiple catalysts to maintain its growth, which is why we own it within our portfolio.</p><p>We think Microsoft is the best risk/reward mega-cap tech stock due to its firm foundation in the cloud and its diversified cloud products. It&#39;s also positioned for outsized growth due to its exposure to secular tailwinds such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and the build out of the 5G network edge. We think Microsoft will take a substantial share of these markets at the infrastructure level due to its relationships with the Fortune 500 and Global Fortune 2000.</p><p>The company&#39;s business relationships with Fortune 500 companies, brand image, and wide user base are the moats that will help the company drive revenues in the hybrid cloud, machine learning, and artificial intelligence segments. Microsoft Azure is used by more than95% of the Fortune 500companies, which shows the company&#39;s dominance across enterprises.</p><p>This is also present within the long-term chart of Microsoft, as it is another FAANG that has a high probability of making a new high in the next growth cycle. As long as it critical support holds at $215, this will remain our primary outlook. However, like the rest of the FAANGs, it looks like it is setting up for one more push lower before we can start looking up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65aa124e1c87e1c5572efc96e59bfc12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p><b>Amazon</b></p><p>Amazon also looks ready to break the $101.50 support zone in what looks like a 4th wave top. The RSI continues to fail under the key bear market resistance at 57. We also have a confirmed Negative RSI Reversal Signal, which is when the RSI makes a higher high while price makes a lower high. This is happening well underneath the bear market resistance of 57 on the RSI. The odds favor one more push lower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a7e382f494edbf435b73e7da8225ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p><b>Meta</b></p><p>Meta Platforms (META) is the one stock within the FAANGs that has a high probability of not seeing new highs in the next growth cycle. Fundamentally, the effects of Apple&#39;s changes to IDFA has finally caught up with META. We have been warning about this shift in META since early 2020. In short, Audience Network is what allowed META to become the advertising behemoth that it is. Not only was META capturing 1st party data through Facebook, but Audience Network allowed it to capture a large portion of 3rd party data.</p><p>We had also said back in2018that we think Audience Network contributed $5 Billion to $10 Billion in ad revenue (the third-party data ad exchange FB uses). Three years later, that&#39;s what Facebook stated in their February 2nd earrings call - &#34;we believe the impact of iOS overall as a headwind on our business in 2022 is on the order of $10 billion.&#34;</p><p>Simply put, the metaverse is simply not big enough to fill this revenue gap. This is showing up in the chart of META. For one, we have a confirmed 5 wave drop from the all-time high. For one, note how the 3rd wave, which is the most powerful move in a trend, happened on peak volume and peak momentum. This is because traders/investors realized that they are on the wrong side of the herd. They sell at any price, creating an intense moment of sentiment. The 5th waves are always on weaker volume and momentum, which is what we are seeing. Here, the shorts always press their luck, exhausting sellers for this move down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f532779f0dd8afde80d50c7dda43112\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p>Why this is significant is that the only corrective pattern that starts with 5 waves down is a Zig-Zag pattern. This is 5 waves down, a 3 wave retrace that fails around half way, then another 5 wave pattern down to new lows. If accurate, the next growth cycle will have META making a move back towards $225-$275 before failing.</p><p>For this to invalidate, META must reclaim the $330 resistance zone. This is unlikely due to the fundamental problems META now faces.</p><p>In conclusion, there are simply too many divergences between Apple&#39;s strength and the rest of the FAANGs to signal a meaningful low is in. I think the odds are high that we at least attempt a double bottom, if not a push towards 3500 SPX before we can start looking up. I do believe that if we do see a push to new lows, it will likely be the 5th wave in this correction. So, it should be on weaker momentum and less volume than prior moves. If so, we will continue to add to beaten down tech stocks that primed to become the next FAANGs.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Vs. The FAANGs (Technical Analysis)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Vs. The FAANGs (Technical Analysis)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 22:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523346-apple-vs-the-faangs-technical-analysis><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company’s operating margin of 30.82% and the net profit margin of 25.71% are excellent.In regards to the S&P 500, Apple ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523346-apple-vs-the-faangs-technical-analysis\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌","AAPL":"苹果","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AMZN":"亚马逊","NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523346-apple-vs-the-faangs-technical-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136389178","content_text":"SummaryApple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company’s operating margin of 30.82% and the net profit margin of 25.71% are excellent.In regards to the S&P 500, Apple currently takes up 6.85% of the weighting in the S&P 500, and therefore gets 6.85% of funds going into the S&P 500.I think the odds are high that we at least attempt a double bottom, if not a push towards 3500 SPX before we can start looking up.Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) became the most valuable company in the world through creating and dominating the smart phone/mobile microtrend. As the majority of the global community went from zero smart phones to it becoming a necessity in their lives, Apple became the most valuable company in the world. However, like all trends, eventually it reaches the point of saturation. Instead of hypergrowth, we see competitors fight over existing customers on lower cost goods as revenue growth moves into a more consistent yet slower rate of change.Apple epitomizes what it means to be both a good value stock and a good tech stock with its strong margins, outsized cash flows, stable balance sheet, and a loyal base of customers supporting the brand.Apple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company's operating margin of 30.82% and the net profit margin of 25.71% are excellent, while most tech companies are currently struggling with the bottom line. It also has an outstanding free cash flow margin of 26.37%. The company has also been shareholder-friendly since it consistently repurchases shares.We have not owned Apple because it is simply not involved in any of the new tech micro trends that will likely give us the next Google (GOOG,GOOGL), Apple, or Amazon (AMZN). However, this does not mean that Apple does not deserve a place within a portfolio.Apple is an outsized beneficiary to passive investing. For those that do not want to pick stocks, and instead just own the index, Apple takes up the largest portion of this money. For example, if you don't want to own tech companies and instead want simply exposure through Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), 23.47% of that money goes to Apple.In regards to the S&P 500, which is the most passively owned index through various mutual funds and ETFs, Apple currently takes up 6.85% of the weighting in the S&P 500, and therefore gets 6.85% of funds going into the S&P 500. This is more than UnitedHealth Group, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Nvidia (NVDA), and Exxon (XOM) combined!Because of how its history of share buybacks, healthy Free Cash Flow, and its very large market cap, it remains a darling within institutional funds that are managing billions. In fact, as of June 30th, 16.07 billion shares outstanding are owned by institutions. This means that roughly 98% of all shares outstanding are owned by institutions.Chart Made by AuthorEven though it is not in the forefront of AI, Machine Learning, Cloud or Big Data, it is uniquely setup to capture an outsized portion of passive investors' funds as well as institutional funds. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine the broad markets making new highs without Apple.Technically, Apple has exhibited a level of relative strength in this bounce that is what you want to see in confirming a broad market trend reversal. It has reclaimed the $145 resistance level, which is a key supply zone to take back. Whether it will hold it is the question?Chart Made by AuthorThe fact that Apple has reclaimed the $145 level is a show of strength, regardless of the weakness in the momentum. If the other FAANGs were showing the level of strength APPL is right now by reclaiming key resistance levels, that would be encouraging that a meaningful low is underway. However, we are just not seeing that right now.GoogleWe recently wrote about how Google (Alphabet) is our second favorite FAANG. In a cookie-less world due to Apple's notable change to its IDFA, owners of 1st party data, like Google, are setting themselves up to further dominate. This catalyst, coupled with its positioning within the AI microtrend, is the reason why it reserves a position within our portfolio.This also lines up with the technical chart on a long-term basis. Google is the healthiest chart amongst the FAANGs, as it is comfortably above its critical support zone at $1800. As long as any additional weakness is seen here, above this critical support suggests that GOOGL is one of the FAANGs that is likely to make a new high.However, over the next month, it appears that Google is tracing a bear flag pattern. This is a common pattern that we see in 4th waves, which suggests we need one more wave to complete the 5 wave pattern in Google's drawdown.Chart Made by AuthorNetflixNFLX is another FAANG that we believe has a higher probability of making a new high in the next growth cycle than most believe. While market was focused on NFLX reporting a subscriber miss of 200,000, it failed to recognize that NFLX is on track to monetize around 100 million new subscribers who are sneaking onto the platform through shared passwords. We wrote about this extensively in a recently report, and as a result has entered into our matrix of potential positions to own going into the next growth cycle.We believe NFLX is undervalued based on where this monetization will take its revenue in the coming quarters, and this is showing up in the chart on a long-term basis. However, over the next month, Netflix looks to be tracing a bear pennant pattern/triangle pattern. These are common in 4th waves, suggesting one more push lower to complete the drawdown.Chart Made by AuthorMicrosoftMicrosoft (MSFT) is one of the FAAMGs that we believe will continue to exhibit dominance into future tech trends. It is one of the leaders in the on-going cloud trend, and is also setting itself up to lead in edge computing and machine learning. We believe Microsoft has multiple catalysts to maintain its growth, which is why we own it within our portfolio.We think Microsoft is the best risk/reward mega-cap tech stock due to its firm foundation in the cloud and its diversified cloud products. It's also positioned for outsized growth due to its exposure to secular tailwinds such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and the build out of the 5G network edge. We think Microsoft will take a substantial share of these markets at the infrastructure level due to its relationships with the Fortune 500 and Global Fortune 2000.The company's business relationships with Fortune 500 companies, brand image, and wide user base are the moats that will help the company drive revenues in the hybrid cloud, machine learning, and artificial intelligence segments. Microsoft Azure is used by more than95% of the Fortune 500companies, which shows the company's dominance across enterprises.This is also present within the long-term chart of Microsoft, as it is another FAANG that has a high probability of making a new high in the next growth cycle. As long as it critical support holds at $215, this will remain our primary outlook. However, like the rest of the FAANGs, it looks like it is setting up for one more push lower before we can start looking up.Chart Made by AuthorAmazonAmazon also looks ready to break the $101.50 support zone in what looks like a 4th wave top. The RSI continues to fail under the key bear market resistance at 57. We also have a confirmed Negative RSI Reversal Signal, which is when the RSI makes a higher high while price makes a lower high. This is happening well underneath the bear market resistance of 57 on the RSI. The odds favor one more push lower.Chart Made by AuthorMetaMeta Platforms (META) is the one stock within the FAANGs that has a high probability of not seeing new highs in the next growth cycle. Fundamentally, the effects of Apple's changes to IDFA has finally caught up with META. We have been warning about this shift in META since early 2020. In short, Audience Network is what allowed META to become the advertising behemoth that it is. Not only was META capturing 1st party data through Facebook, but Audience Network allowed it to capture a large portion of 3rd party data.We had also said back in2018that we think Audience Network contributed $5 Billion to $10 Billion in ad revenue (the third-party data ad exchange FB uses). Three years later, that's what Facebook stated in their February 2nd earrings call - \"we believe the impact of iOS overall as a headwind on our business in 2022 is on the order of $10 billion.\"Simply put, the metaverse is simply not big enough to fill this revenue gap. This is showing up in the chart of META. For one, we have a confirmed 5 wave drop from the all-time high. For one, note how the 3rd wave, which is the most powerful move in a trend, happened on peak volume and peak momentum. This is because traders/investors realized that they are on the wrong side of the herd. They sell at any price, creating an intense moment of sentiment. The 5th waves are always on weaker volume and momentum, which is what we are seeing. Here, the shorts always press their luck, exhausting sellers for this move down.Chart Made by AuthorWhy this is significant is that the only corrective pattern that starts with 5 waves down is a Zig-Zag pattern. This is 5 waves down, a 3 wave retrace that fails around half way, then another 5 wave pattern down to new lows. If accurate, the next growth cycle will have META making a move back towards $225-$275 before failing.For this to invalidate, META must reclaim the $330 resistance zone. This is unlikely due to the fundamental problems META now faces.In conclusion, there are simply too many divergences between Apple's strength and the rest of the FAANGs to signal a meaningful low is in. I think the odds are high that we at least attempt a double bottom, if not a push towards 3500 SPX before we can start looking up. I do believe that if we do see a push to new lows, it will likely be the 5th wave in this correction. So, it should be on weaker momentum and less volume than prior moves. If so, we will continue to add to beaten down tech stocks that primed to become the next FAANGs.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071338485,"gmtCreate":1657473700447,"gmtModify":1676536011402,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read!&nbsp;","listText":"Good read!&nbsp;","text":"Good read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071338485","repostId":"2250399643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2250399643","pubTimestamp":1657423895,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250399643?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-10 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Is Destined To Double","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250399643","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"What happened?Ford’s (NYSE:F) stock price has plummeted 50% over the past 6 months.Ford Performance ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>What happened?</h2><p>Ford’s (NYSE:F) stock price has plummeted 50% over the past 6 months.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/790828-1657321448394048.jpg\" tg-width=\"291\" tg-height=\"142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ford Performance (Finviz)</p><p>There was little to no upside breakouts along the way.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/790828-16573214858822029.jpg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ford Current Chart (Finviz)</p><p>Even so, the stock is up 4% for the week and just recently broke out above the top of the downtrend channel.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/790828-16573215212417614.jpg\" tg-width=\"261\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Recent Breakout (Finviz)</p><p>The recent upside push in the stock has actually occurred in the face of some negative news breaking as well. As reported by Seeking Alpha news:</p><blockquote><i>“During the second quarter, Ford sold a mere 120,000 vehicles in Greater China marking a ~22% year-over-year decline led by rising COVID cases and ongoing global supply chain problems. The sales indicated the worst since Q1 of 2020 (89K units) when government COVID restrictions halted the production in the country.”</i></blockquote><p>Even so, a selloff based on macro factors, such as COVID breakouts and supply chain issues, often creates an opportunity to buy stock in a solid company with sound prospects. I submit this is the case we have with Ford. The stock presents an excellent long-term growth buying opportunity at present. Let me explain.</p><h2>Ford well positioned for growth</h2><p>The Ford F-150 Lightning is now officially in production. I have done my research on the truck and it is awesome. Ford CEO Jim Farley stated:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;The company is not joking around by saying the electric F-150 lightning could be as big a product for the automaker as the Model T back in 1908.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Ford plans to scale production of the F-150 Lightning even faster than competitors, with plans to boost manufacturing of the Lightning at a plant in Dearborn to 150,000 units in the next year, up from an initial target of 40,000 vehicles.</p><p>What&#39;s more, Ford has secured the lithium-ion batteries needed to meet its expected level of production of 150,000 units next year. Moreover, the company plans to prioritize supplies of semiconductor chips toward the F-150 Lightning.</p><p>Markets can stay irrational longer than most can stay solvent. Especially in times such as these where inflation is running rampant and the Fed &#34;put&#34; has been effectively removed. As a grizzled veteran investor who has successfully navigated the 2000, and 2008 bubbles and subsequent crashes, I have developed a disciplined strategy for building new positions. Here is how.</p><h2>Investing in turbulent times</h2><p>I started out my adult life as a Winter Warrior in the US Army&#39;s famed 10th Mountain Division to earn the money for college. As the largest &#34;Winter Warrior&#34; in the unit, I was given one of the larger weapons to hump. My weapon was the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon, or SAW, an individually portable light machine gun. You must only fire the weapon in short 6-8 round bursts so it doesn’t overheat. You should build new positions in the same manner. Let me explain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/790828-1657321708306152.jpg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Winter Warfare Training Ft. Drum, New York (10th Mountain)</p><p>A mistake I made many times in my younger days was to plunk down the entire allocation for a new position in one buy. I felt so confident the stock had seen the low, I wanted to be sure and maximize my upside. This was a huge mistake. I have learned to be patient over the years when building a new position. You must layer in to new positions over time. Moreover, the higher the level of macro market volatility, the greater the number of tranches you should use to create a position. Always layer in to new positions over time to reduce risk. What’s more, have a plan for building the position. Let me explain.</p><h3>Have a plan for creating a new position</h3><p>I have found one way to improve my performance over the years is to set up a plan for any new positions I create. I set predetermined buy limit orders at lower prices that will significantly improve my basis for a series of tranches. After each tranche executes, I take some time and, reassess, and set up new buy limit orders according to my new targets. Another reason I am picking up shares now is the fact I believe if we aren’t at the low, we are darn close and Recession fears have gotten out of control.</p><h3>Recession fears overblown</h3><p>After doing due diligence on past recessionary cycles and the respective effects on the markets in general, I surmise the potential coming recession will be a short and shallow one, even with a hard landing, for several reasons. Firstly, the average drop in the S&amp;P 500 during the past 12 recessions since World War ll was 30%. We&#39;re currently down 20% already, so about two thirds of the recession&#39;s potential downside effect on the market is already priced in by historical standards. And Ford is down more than that at 50%. So, I employing Sir John Templeton’s strategy of “Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.”</p><h3>Invest at the point of maximum pessimism</h3><p>One of my favorite quotes from investing icon Sir John Templeton is the following:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Templeton is known as a contrarian investor. He referred to his investment philosophy as &#34;bargain hunting.&#34; Templeton&#39;s guiding principle was:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Search for companies that offered low prices and an excellent long-term outlook.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>I feel this statement perfectly illustrates where Ford&#39;s stock lies right now. The reward far outweighs the risk at this time with the stock down 50% on factors that are bound to improve over time. The stock is under-owned and oversold presently. In the following sections I make my case. This only works if you have courage in your convictions and can sleep well at night. I can with Ford.</p><h3>Bear markets throughout history</h3><p>Can anyone guess how many times the market has bounced back after a steep sell off such as the one happening now? The answer is every time. Right now, bearish sentiment at record highs. This exactly the time to strike. Here is why.</p><h3>Are you playing chess or checkers?</h3><p>I see those selling out now as classic cases of first-level thinking. A first level thinker sells stocks as they fall and buys stocks when things are going well. The fact of the matter is in order to be truly successful; you have to do the exact opposite. Think of first-level thinking as checkers, second-level thinking as chess. Warren Buffett&#39;s quote &#34;Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful&#34; is a classic example of second level thinking.</p><h3>The contrarian&#39;s code</h3><p>Times of market turmoil often present the best buying opportunities for savvy investors. Contrarians find their best investment opportunities during times of market duress while others are panic selling. Nonetheless, the underlying stock needs to have a solid growth story and strong fundamentals. Ford fits the bill of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater. I see Ford doubling within the next couple of years. Here is why.</p><h3>Ford&#39;s solid fundamentals</h3><p>First of all, Ford is basically trading for a song at the present valuation. Ford&#39;s forward P/E of 5.41 is approximately a third of the current S&amp;P 500 forward P/E of 16. The stock is incredibly trading for book value with $10 in cash per share on the balance sheet, talk about margin of safety. Moreover Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant analysis rates Ford a Buy with A scores for valuation, growth, and profitability.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/790828-1657321978484646.jpg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ford Quant Analysis (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>If ever there was a bargain basement buying opportunity in Ford, this is it. Nevertheless, there are always downside risks to any thesis or investment. Please review the following.</p><h3>Potential Downside Risks</h3><p>It would be remiss of me not to include the positional downside risks as no investment comes without risk. Even so, the higher the risk the higher the reward. The following is a list of downside risks as I see them.</p><ul><li>A decline in Ford&#39;s market share.</li><li>Lower-than-anticipated market acceptance of Ford&#39;s new or existing products.</li><li>Further issues with chip supply.</li><li>China&#39;s economy not coming back online.</li><li>Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates.</li><li>Inflation continuing to rise causing a recession leading to a further selloff.</li></ul><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>Our innate instincts encourage us to depart a sinking ship. This survival tactic impacts the way we invest. The herd running for the door is what creates the opportunity to buy a fundamentally solid company like Ford with sound prospects at a discount. Hopefully, you have some dry powder and a long-term time horizon and take advantage. Moreover, after years of diligent work, the company has obtained a fortress balance sheet and solid cash flow. Those are my thoughts on the matter I look forward to reading yours.</p><h3>Your input is required!</h3><p>The true value of my articles is provided by the prescient remarks from Seeking Alpha members in the comments section below. Do you think Ford is a Buy at current levels? Why or why not? Thank you in advance for your participation.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Is Destined To Double</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Is Destined To Double\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-10 11:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522484-ford-stock-destined-to-double><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happened?Ford’s (NYSE:F) stock price has plummeted 50% over the past 6 months.Ford Performance (Finviz)There was little to no upside breakouts along the way.Ford Current Chart (Finviz)Even so, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522484-ford-stock-destined-to-double\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522484-ford-stock-destined-to-double","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2250399643","content_text":"What happened?Ford’s (NYSE:F) stock price has plummeted 50% over the past 6 months.Ford Performance (Finviz)There was little to no upside breakouts along the way.Ford Current Chart (Finviz)Even so, the stock is up 4% for the week and just recently broke out above the top of the downtrend channel.Recent Breakout (Finviz)The recent upside push in the stock has actually occurred in the face of some negative news breaking as well. As reported by Seeking Alpha news:“During the second quarter, Ford sold a mere 120,000 vehicles in Greater China marking a ~22% year-over-year decline led by rising COVID cases and ongoing global supply chain problems. The sales indicated the worst since Q1 of 2020 (89K units) when government COVID restrictions halted the production in the country.”Even so, a selloff based on macro factors, such as COVID breakouts and supply chain issues, often creates an opportunity to buy stock in a solid company with sound prospects. I submit this is the case we have with Ford. The stock presents an excellent long-term growth buying opportunity at present. Let me explain.Ford well positioned for growthThe Ford F-150 Lightning is now officially in production. I have done my research on the truck and it is awesome. Ford CEO Jim Farley stated:\"The company is not joking around by saying the electric F-150 lightning could be as big a product for the automaker as the Model T back in 1908.\"Ford plans to scale production of the F-150 Lightning even faster than competitors, with plans to boost manufacturing of the Lightning at a plant in Dearborn to 150,000 units in the next year, up from an initial target of 40,000 vehicles.What's more, Ford has secured the lithium-ion batteries needed to meet its expected level of production of 150,000 units next year. Moreover, the company plans to prioritize supplies of semiconductor chips toward the F-150 Lightning.Markets can stay irrational longer than most can stay solvent. Especially in times such as these where inflation is running rampant and the Fed \"put\" has been effectively removed. As a grizzled veteran investor who has successfully navigated the 2000, and 2008 bubbles and subsequent crashes, I have developed a disciplined strategy for building new positions. Here is how.Investing in turbulent timesI started out my adult life as a Winter Warrior in the US Army's famed 10th Mountain Division to earn the money for college. As the largest \"Winter Warrior\" in the unit, I was given one of the larger weapons to hump. My weapon was the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon, or SAW, an individually portable light machine gun. You must only fire the weapon in short 6-8 round bursts so it doesn’t overheat. You should build new positions in the same manner. Let me explain.Winter Warfare Training Ft. Drum, New York (10th Mountain)A mistake I made many times in my younger days was to plunk down the entire allocation for a new position in one buy. I felt so confident the stock had seen the low, I wanted to be sure and maximize my upside. This was a huge mistake. I have learned to be patient over the years when building a new position. You must layer in to new positions over time. Moreover, the higher the level of macro market volatility, the greater the number of tranches you should use to create a position. Always layer in to new positions over time to reduce risk. What’s more, have a plan for building the position. Let me explain.Have a plan for creating a new positionI have found one way to improve my performance over the years is to set up a plan for any new positions I create. I set predetermined buy limit orders at lower prices that will significantly improve my basis for a series of tranches. After each tranche executes, I take some time and, reassess, and set up new buy limit orders according to my new targets. Another reason I am picking up shares now is the fact I believe if we aren’t at the low, we are darn close and Recession fears have gotten out of control.Recession fears overblownAfter doing due diligence on past recessionary cycles and the respective effects on the markets in general, I surmise the potential coming recession will be a short and shallow one, even with a hard landing, for several reasons. Firstly, the average drop in the S&P 500 during the past 12 recessions since World War ll was 30%. We're currently down 20% already, so about two thirds of the recession's potential downside effect on the market is already priced in by historical standards. And Ford is down more than that at 50%. So, I employing Sir John Templeton’s strategy of “Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.”Invest at the point of maximum pessimismOne of my favorite quotes from investing icon Sir John Templeton is the following:\"Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.\"Templeton is known as a contrarian investor. He referred to his investment philosophy as \"bargain hunting.\" Templeton's guiding principle was:\"Search for companies that offered low prices and an excellent long-term outlook.\"I feel this statement perfectly illustrates where Ford's stock lies right now. The reward far outweighs the risk at this time with the stock down 50% on factors that are bound to improve over time. The stock is under-owned and oversold presently. In the following sections I make my case. This only works if you have courage in your convictions and can sleep well at night. I can with Ford.Bear markets throughout historyCan anyone guess how many times the market has bounced back after a steep sell off such as the one happening now? The answer is every time. Right now, bearish sentiment at record highs. This exactly the time to strike. Here is why.Are you playing chess or checkers?I see those selling out now as classic cases of first-level thinking. A first level thinker sells stocks as they fall and buys stocks when things are going well. The fact of the matter is in order to be truly successful; you have to do the exact opposite. Think of first-level thinking as checkers, second-level thinking as chess. Warren Buffett's quote \"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful\" is a classic example of second level thinking.The contrarian's codeTimes of market turmoil often present the best buying opportunities for savvy investors. Contrarians find their best investment opportunities during times of market duress while others are panic selling. Nonetheless, the underlying stock needs to have a solid growth story and strong fundamentals. Ford fits the bill of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater. I see Ford doubling within the next couple of years. Here is why.Ford's solid fundamentalsFirst of all, Ford is basically trading for a song at the present valuation. Ford's forward P/E of 5.41 is approximately a third of the current S&P 500 forward P/E of 16. The stock is incredibly trading for book value with $10 in cash per share on the balance sheet, talk about margin of safety. Moreover Seeking Alpha's Quant analysis rates Ford a Buy with A scores for valuation, growth, and profitability.Ford Quant Analysis (Seeking Alpha)If ever there was a bargain basement buying opportunity in Ford, this is it. Nevertheless, there are always downside risks to any thesis or investment. Please review the following.Potential Downside RisksIt would be remiss of me not to include the positional downside risks as no investment comes without risk. Even so, the higher the risk the higher the reward. The following is a list of downside risks as I see them.A decline in Ford's market share.Lower-than-anticipated market acceptance of Ford's new or existing products.Further issues with chip supply.China's economy not coming back online.Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates.Inflation continuing to rise causing a recession leading to a further selloff.The Bottom LineOur innate instincts encourage us to depart a sinking ship. This survival tactic impacts the way we invest. The herd running for the door is what creates the opportunity to buy a fundamentally solid company like Ford with sound prospects at a discount. Hopefully, you have some dry powder and a long-term time horizon and take advantage. Moreover, after years of diligent work, the company has obtained a fortress balance sheet and solid cash flow. Those are my thoughts on the matter I look forward to reading yours.Your input is required!The true value of my articles is provided by the prescient remarks from Seeking Alpha members in the comments section below. Do you think Ford is a Buy at current levels? Why or why not? Thank you in advance for your participation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045437528,"gmtCreate":1656640733264,"gmtModify":1676535869550,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good article, totally agree","listText":"Good article, totally agree","text":"Good article, totally agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045437528","repostId":"2248858063","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2248858063","pubTimestamp":1656638946,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2248858063?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-01 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify: Stock Split Gimmick Didn't Work","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248858063","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryShopify completed a 10-for-1 stock split this week.The e-commerce platform finds the stock tr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Shopify completed a 10-for-1 stock split this week.</li><li>The e-commerce platform finds the stock trading at 52-week lows despite forecasts for 20% to 30% growth rates going forward.</li><li>The stock valuation is far more reasonable at 4x EV/S, but the retail shakeout needs to end before investing here.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c807376d756380fb93d5b7a9860d8c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) shareholders found out the hard way this week that stock splits aren&#39;t much more than financial gimmicks. After several large cap tech companies successfully split shares in the last year, the e-commerce platformexecuted a large share split and the stock has continued on to recent lows. My investment thesis is more Neutral on Shopify until the retail shakeout ends, but the stock valuation is definitely more appealing here with the stock down over 80% from the highs.</p><p><b>Stock Split</b></p><p>Just about anyone with basic investment knowledge knows a stock split provides no economic benefit to shareholders. A stock split can cause further momentum higher in a bullish trending stock just as a reverse split can create more downside from a bearish trending stock. Either way, an investor still has the same ownership position in the company as before the stock split just more shares in this case.</p><p>Shopify completed a 10-for-1 split on June 29. During the COVID e-commerce surge, the stock traded to a high of $1,763 where a split was probably warranted to make trading by retail investors and options more accessible. The stock though has collapsed prior to the split and now the company finds shares trading down at $31 and possibly heading into the $20s.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e7d9475d51d037e7293388d881a6c4\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: FinViz</span></p><p>Considering stock price levels are considered a matter of strength, Shopify trading back down into the $20s doesn&#39;t throw off the best vibes. If the stock was to head much lower, Shopify might regret such a large split that once appeared logical when a 10-for-1 split would&#39;ve left the stock still trading above $100.</p><p><b>Not Done Growing</b></p><p>The e-commerce infrastructure platform providing retailers with the solutions to operate online still expects to report strong growth in the years ahead. The retail sector is struggling right now evidenced by the weak numbers from Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY), yet the market is extrapolating these results far into the future. A lot the current weakness is due to COVID pull forward making the comps difficult despite retailers still reporting solid numbers compared to 2019.</p><p>Shopify saw explosive growth during 2020 and early 2021 as retailers flocked to the platform looking for any solution to conduct sales online. With the company providing an alternative to selling goods on Amazon (AMZN), Shopify was in hot demand. The company saw the growth rate peak at 110% in Q1&#39;21 making the recently reported quarterly results impressive to generate additional 22% sales growth on top of those growth rates. Shopify only reported Q1&#39;19 revenues of $320 million and hit $1.2 billion in Q1&#39;22 for 275% growth over the period.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e921a7e29b3b22ee0dcad2d791d3e0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the company discussed with investors, GMV growth was supercharged over the COVID shutdown period. Shopify reporting any growth in 2022 is actually very impressive.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/314a015d40bc1512351f5a6477f04595\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Shopify Q1&#39;22 presentation</span></p><p>The market doesn&#39;t really care due to either investors losing interest when growth stories struggle or algos running wild with decelerating growth. Either way, the stock now trades at the lowest trailing P/S ratio since Shopify went public at 8.7x sales. The stock valuation got carried away at the peak along with most tech stocks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d61edac069c39ce077dce14a1e314ad9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>The stock trades at ~5x 2023 sales targets of $7.7 billion. With a cash balance of $7.25 billion with net cash of ~$6.34 billion, Shopify has an impressive balance sheet to fund future growth initiatives.</p><p>The Deliverr deal will require Shopify spend $1.7 billion in cash to pay for the deal to acquire the fulfillment technology provider. Prior to the Deliverr deal, the Shopify enterprise value is only 4x sales estimates providing one of the better prices to own the stock since going public while the prospects for growth remain strong. A lot of the analyst estimates have the company returning to 30% growth rates once the normalization period ends in 2023.</p><p>Shopify was profitable in Q1&#39;22, though the company is scraping the bottom of profitability during the current period. The e-commerce platform has continued to invest in building out the platform despite the reduced growth rates. Regardless, Shopify has the cash balance and income to survive and thrive the current downturn in the retail sector.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>The key investor takeaway is that the stock split gimmick definitely didn&#39;t work for Shopify. The stock had no momentum heading into the split and the lack of economic value for shareholders just provided more shares to sell. As the stock bottoms out over the next quarter, investors should look into acquiring shares of the e-commerce platform leader at a far more reasonable valuation now.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify: Stock Split Gimmick Didn't Work</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify: Stock Split Gimmick Didn't Work\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-01 09:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521209-shopify-stock-split-gimmick-didnt-work><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryShopify completed a 10-for-1 stock split this week.The e-commerce platform finds the stock trading at 52-week lows despite forecasts for 20% to 30% growth rates going forward.The stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521209-shopify-stock-split-gimmick-didnt-work\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521209-shopify-stock-split-gimmick-didnt-work","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2248858063","content_text":"SummaryShopify completed a 10-for-1 stock split this week.The e-commerce platform finds the stock trading at 52-week lows despite forecasts for 20% to 30% growth rates going forward.The stock valuation is far more reasonable at 4x EV/S, but the retail shakeout needs to end before investing here.JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesShopify (NYSE:SHOP) shareholders found out the hard way this week that stock splits aren't much more than financial gimmicks. After several large cap tech companies successfully split shares in the last year, the e-commerce platformexecuted a large share split and the stock has continued on to recent lows. My investment thesis is more Neutral on Shopify until the retail shakeout ends, but the stock valuation is definitely more appealing here with the stock down over 80% from the highs.Stock SplitJust about anyone with basic investment knowledge knows a stock split provides no economic benefit to shareholders. A stock split can cause further momentum higher in a bullish trending stock just as a reverse split can create more downside from a bearish trending stock. Either way, an investor still has the same ownership position in the company as before the stock split just more shares in this case.Shopify completed a 10-for-1 split on June 29. During the COVID e-commerce surge, the stock traded to a high of $1,763 where a split was probably warranted to make trading by retail investors and options more accessible. The stock though has collapsed prior to the split and now the company finds shares trading down at $31 and possibly heading into the $20s.Source: FinVizConsidering stock price levels are considered a matter of strength, Shopify trading back down into the $20s doesn't throw off the best vibes. If the stock was to head much lower, Shopify might regret such a large split that once appeared logical when a 10-for-1 split would've left the stock still trading above $100.Not Done GrowingThe e-commerce infrastructure platform providing retailers with the solutions to operate online still expects to report strong growth in the years ahead. The retail sector is struggling right now evidenced by the weak numbers from Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY), yet the market is extrapolating these results far into the future. A lot the current weakness is due to COVID pull forward making the comps difficult despite retailers still reporting solid numbers compared to 2019.Shopify saw explosive growth during 2020 and early 2021 as retailers flocked to the platform looking for any solution to conduct sales online. With the company providing an alternative to selling goods on Amazon (AMZN), Shopify was in hot demand. The company saw the growth rate peak at 110% in Q1'21 making the recently reported quarterly results impressive to generate additional 22% sales growth on top of those growth rates. Shopify only reported Q1'19 revenues of $320 million and hit $1.2 billion in Q1'22 for 275% growth over the period.Data by YChartsAs the company discussed with investors, GMV growth was supercharged over the COVID shutdown period. Shopify reporting any growth in 2022 is actually very impressive.Source: Shopify Q1'22 presentationThe market doesn't really care due to either investors losing interest when growth stories struggle or algos running wild with decelerating growth. Either way, the stock now trades at the lowest trailing P/S ratio since Shopify went public at 8.7x sales. The stock valuation got carried away at the peak along with most tech stocks.Data by YChartsThe stock trades at ~5x 2023 sales targets of $7.7 billion. With a cash balance of $7.25 billion with net cash of ~$6.34 billion, Shopify has an impressive balance sheet to fund future growth initiatives.The Deliverr deal will require Shopify spend $1.7 billion in cash to pay for the deal to acquire the fulfillment technology provider. Prior to the Deliverr deal, the Shopify enterprise value is only 4x sales estimates providing one of the better prices to own the stock since going public while the prospects for growth remain strong. A lot of the analyst estimates have the company returning to 30% growth rates once the normalization period ends in 2023.Shopify was profitable in Q1'22, though the company is scraping the bottom of profitability during the current period. The e-commerce platform has continued to invest in building out the platform despite the reduced growth rates. Regardless, Shopify has the cash balance and income to survive and thrive the current downturn in the retail sector.TakeawayThe key investor takeaway is that the stock split gimmick definitely didn't work for Shopify. The stock had no momentum heading into the split and the lack of economic value for shareholders just provided more shares to sell. As the stock bottoms out over the next quarter, investors should look into acquiring shares of the e-commerce platform leader at a far more reasonable valuation now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046173542,"gmtCreate":1656319776186,"gmtModify":1676535805441,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"P/E is high, but still a stock for the future. Retracement is good&nbsp;","listText":"P/E is high, but still a stock for the future. Retracement is good&nbsp;","text":"P/E is high, but still a stock for the future. Retracement is good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046173542","repostId":"1151565966","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151565966","pubTimestamp":1656319083,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151565966?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-27 16:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CrowdStrike: A Bargain, But This Is Not The Bottom","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151565966","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryCRWD had declined by 22% since our previous hold rating, given its previously elevated valuat","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>CRWD had declined by 22% since our previous hold rating, given its previously elevated valuations.</li><li>However, given the increasingly bearish market sentiment, we have lowered our price target to $120.</li><li>In the meantime, those who had entered highs must be prepared to ride the volatility wave for a little longer.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) has continued to deliver on its promises, despite the management&#39;s lofty guidance during its recent Investor Briefing. Though slowing enterprise spending could be a temporary headwind, we are not concerned about its prospects in the long-term, given that the global cloud computing market is expected to grow from $445.3B in 2021 to $947.3B in 2026, at a CAGR of 16.3%.</p><p>Nonetheless, we may expect more volatility ahead as Mr. Market continues to worry about the Fed&#39;s hike in interest rates and the potential recession. Given the drastic market correction since November 2021, CRWD has lost half of its pandemic gains. If the bearish market sentiments continue for the next few months, we may expect another retracement, which would provide interested investors with a safer entry point to this winning stock.</p><p><b>CRWD Has Showed Exemplary Execution Thus Far</b></p><p><b>CRWD Revenue, Net Income, Net Income Margin, and Gross Income</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175b0002b26c91517a24ed92a3e1aaae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>CRWD reported revenues of $1.64B and gross margins of 73.6% in the LTM, representing impressive revenue growth of 88.5% YoY. Nonetheless, it is also evident that the company has yet to report net income profitability, with a net income of -$0.18B and a net income margin of -11.1% in the LTM.</p><p><b>CRWD ARR, Revenue By Segment, and Customer Count</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9dbeabdd88e6718f636295473affab4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>As seen from the chart, it is evident that CRWD has been on a successful mission in acquiring customers and growing its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). By the FQ1&#39;23, the company reported an impressive ARR of $1.92B, with an excellent 18.11% growth QoQ and 43.2% YoY, while also recording a total of 17.94K of customers, with 57% of YoY growth. In addition, CRWD&#39;s investment in its channel partners has also been paying off, with the segment now accounting for 80.3% of its revenues, as opposed to 74.9% in FQ1&#39;22.</p><p>Nonetheless, we believe the analysts&#39; concerns on the&#34;slowing ARR growth&#34;is valid, given the potential recession slowing enterprise investment moving forward. Nevertheless, we are optimistic about its long-term prospects, since the headwinds are temporary at best</p><p><b>CRWD Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF Margins</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e17ae7a3c1e42b701bd0f4438971a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>CRWD has also been reporting positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) since FQ3&#39;20. The company recorded FCF of $0.5B in the LTM, while also growing its cash and equivalents to $2.15B simultaneously. Given the massive YoY improvement in its levered FCF yield from 0.5% in FQ1&#39;22 to 1.7% in FQ1&#39;23, it is not hard to assume that CRWD may easily double its yield by FY2024, once the company reports sustained net income profitability. We shall see.</p><p><b>CRWD Operating Expense</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8d32f0f43c9d25be3da4599960baa1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, CRWD has been aggressively growing its operational expenses in the past two years, with $1.33B of expenses in the LTM. However, it is evident that the company has been prudent in its capital management as well, given the moderated percentage of its growing revenue at 81.5% in the LTM, compared to 100.9% in FY2020 and 119.9% in FY2019.</p><p><b>CRWD Net PPE and Capex</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955a4820727ada550ec1825ae6329632\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>In the meantime, CRWD has also been increasing its Capex investments over time, with a total Capex of $138.6M and net PPE assets of $302.6M in the LTM. Nonetheless, these growing investments in its capabilities are essential for the company&#39;s growth, since they would directly contribute to its top and bottom lines moving forward. In addition, we are not overly concerned, given its positive FCF generation, strong cash and equivalents on its balance sheet, and the projected net income profitability by FY2023.</p><p><b>CRWD Long-Term Debt and Share Dilution</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34fc5c95e33161aedf3aea88e241e460\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>CRWD has also been evidently careful in its capital management, despite the lack of net income profitability thus far. The company had refrained from massive debt leveraging and share dilution in the past two years, despite the exponentially growing operational expenses and capital expenditures. CRWD also reported a relatively modest share-based compensation(SBC) of $309.9M in FY2022, representing an increase of 207.1% YoY. Assuming a similar rate, the company would report a total of SBC expenses at $409.6M for FY2023, based on$102.4Mof expenses in FQ1&#39;23. It would represent an apparent deceleration in SBC expenses of 32.1% YoY.</p><p><b>CRWD Projected Revenue and Net Income</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40057f587a0b8ef400ae4c9a30cb069e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Over the next three years, CRWD is expected to report revenue growth at a CAGR of 39.31% and net income at a CAGR of 50.86%. For FY2023, the company guided revenues in the range of $2.19B to $2.205B against consensus estimates of $2.15B and net income profitability at $0.29B. Its FQ2&#39;23 guidance looks excellent as well, with revenues in the range of $512.7M to $516.8M against consensus estimates of $509.9M. Its net income profitability is also expected to improve over time, with a projected net income margin of $13.1% in FY2023 to 16.8% in FY2025.</p><p><b>So, Is CRWD Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><b>CRWD 3Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3295c1cea2c9c76d3c65eb4f71cc8c2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>CRWD is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 16.39x and NTM P/E of 139.11x, lower than its 3Y EV/Revenue mean of 28.09x though massively elevated from its 3Y P/E mean of 21.76x. The stock is also trading at $175.90, down 41.4% from its 52 weeks high of $298.48, though at a premium of 34.5% from its 52 weeks low of $130. Despite its excellent FQ1&#39;23 earnings call on 02 June 2022, CRWD had also traded mostly sideways in the past three weeks. Gone were the days of the stock rallies post-earnings calls with excellent performance and guidance.</p><p><b>CRWD 3Y Stock Price</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87c1d61e2a53109067f9e28579ac5471\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Though consensus estimates still rate CRWD as an attractive buy with a price target of $238, with a 36.08% upside, we recommend patience for now. Given the bearish market sentiments, there is a strong likelihood of a moderate stock retracement in the next few months as its fundamentals are uncoupled from the stock performance. As a result, we encourage patience before adding more exposure.</p><p>Therefore, we <i>reiterate our Hold rating on CRWD stock now.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CrowdStrike: A Bargain, But This Is Not The Bottom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrowdStrike: A Bargain, But This Is Not The Bottom\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-27 16:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520107-crowdstrike-bargain-not-bottom?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A41><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCRWD had declined by 22% since our previous hold rating, given its previously elevated valuations.However, given the increasingly bearish market sentiment, we have lowered our price target to $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520107-crowdstrike-bargain-not-bottom?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A41\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520107-crowdstrike-bargain-not-bottom?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A41","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151565966","content_text":"SummaryCRWD had declined by 22% since our previous hold rating, given its previously elevated valuations.However, given the increasingly bearish market sentiment, we have lowered our price target to $120.In the meantime, those who had entered highs must be prepared to ride the volatility wave for a little longer.Investment ThesisCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) has continued to deliver on its promises, despite the management's lofty guidance during its recent Investor Briefing. Though slowing enterprise spending could be a temporary headwind, we are not concerned about its prospects in the long-term, given that the global cloud computing market is expected to grow from $445.3B in 2021 to $947.3B in 2026, at a CAGR of 16.3%.Nonetheless, we may expect more volatility ahead as Mr. Market continues to worry about the Fed's hike in interest rates and the potential recession. Given the drastic market correction since November 2021, CRWD has lost half of its pandemic gains. If the bearish market sentiments continue for the next few months, we may expect another retracement, which would provide interested investors with a safer entry point to this winning stock.CRWD Has Showed Exemplary Execution Thus FarCRWD Revenue, Net Income, Net Income Margin, and Gross IncomeS&P Capital IQCRWD reported revenues of $1.64B and gross margins of 73.6% in the LTM, representing impressive revenue growth of 88.5% YoY. Nonetheless, it is also evident that the company has yet to report net income profitability, with a net income of -$0.18B and a net income margin of -11.1% in the LTM.CRWD ARR, Revenue By Segment, and Customer CountS&P Capital IQAs seen from the chart, it is evident that CRWD has been on a successful mission in acquiring customers and growing its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). By the FQ1'23, the company reported an impressive ARR of $1.92B, with an excellent 18.11% growth QoQ and 43.2% YoY, while also recording a total of 17.94K of customers, with 57% of YoY growth. In addition, CRWD's investment in its channel partners has also been paying off, with the segment now accounting for 80.3% of its revenues, as opposed to 74.9% in FQ1'22.Nonetheless, we believe the analysts' concerns on the\"slowing ARR growth\"is valid, given the potential recession slowing enterprise investment moving forward. Nevertheless, we are optimistic about its long-term prospects, since the headwinds are temporary at bestCRWD Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF MarginsS&P Capital IQCRWD has also been reporting positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) since FQ3'20. The company recorded FCF of $0.5B in the LTM, while also growing its cash and equivalents to $2.15B simultaneously. Given the massive YoY improvement in its levered FCF yield from 0.5% in FQ1'22 to 1.7% in FQ1'23, it is not hard to assume that CRWD may easily double its yield by FY2024, once the company reports sustained net income profitability. We shall see.CRWD Operating ExpenseS&P Capital IQDespite the COVID-19 pandemic, CRWD has been aggressively growing its operational expenses in the past two years, with $1.33B of expenses in the LTM. However, it is evident that the company has been prudent in its capital management as well, given the moderated percentage of its growing revenue at 81.5% in the LTM, compared to 100.9% in FY2020 and 119.9% in FY2019.CRWD Net PPE and CapexS&P Capital IQIn the meantime, CRWD has also been increasing its Capex investments over time, with a total Capex of $138.6M and net PPE assets of $302.6M in the LTM. Nonetheless, these growing investments in its capabilities are essential for the company's growth, since they would directly contribute to its top and bottom lines moving forward. In addition, we are not overly concerned, given its positive FCF generation, strong cash and equivalents on its balance sheet, and the projected net income profitability by FY2023.CRWD Long-Term Debt and Share DilutionS&P Capital IQCRWD has also been evidently careful in its capital management, despite the lack of net income profitability thus far. The company had refrained from massive debt leveraging and share dilution in the past two years, despite the exponentially growing operational expenses and capital expenditures. CRWD also reported a relatively modest share-based compensation(SBC) of $309.9M in FY2022, representing an increase of 207.1% YoY. Assuming a similar rate, the company would report a total of SBC expenses at $409.6M for FY2023, based on$102.4Mof expenses in FQ1'23. It would represent an apparent deceleration in SBC expenses of 32.1% YoY.CRWD Projected Revenue and Net IncomeS&P Capital IQOver the next three years, CRWD is expected to report revenue growth at a CAGR of 39.31% and net income at a CAGR of 50.86%. For FY2023, the company guided revenues in the range of $2.19B to $2.205B against consensus estimates of $2.15B and net income profitability at $0.29B. Its FQ2'23 guidance looks excellent as well, with revenues in the range of $512.7M to $516.8M against consensus estimates of $509.9M. Its net income profitability is also expected to improve over time, with a projected net income margin of $13.1% in FY2023 to 16.8% in FY2025.So, Is CRWD Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?CRWD 3Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQCRWD is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 16.39x and NTM P/E of 139.11x, lower than its 3Y EV/Revenue mean of 28.09x though massively elevated from its 3Y P/E mean of 21.76x. The stock is also trading at $175.90, down 41.4% from its 52 weeks high of $298.48, though at a premium of 34.5% from its 52 weeks low of $130. Despite its excellent FQ1'23 earnings call on 02 June 2022, CRWD had also traded mostly sideways in the past three weeks. Gone were the days of the stock rallies post-earnings calls with excellent performance and guidance.CRWD 3Y Stock PriceSeeking AlphaThough consensus estimates still rate CRWD as an attractive buy with a price target of $238, with a 36.08% upside, we recommend patience for now. Given the bearish market sentiments, there is a strong likelihood of a moderate stock retracement in the next few months as its fundamentals are uncoupled from the stock performance. As a result, we encourage patience before adding more exposure.Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on CRWD stock now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048899264,"gmtCreate":1656174133358,"gmtModify":1676535780049,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"One of the best, if not the best teachers when it comes to investing","listText":"One of the best, if not the best teachers when it comes to investing","text":"One of the best, if not the best teachers when it comes to investing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048899264","repostId":"1191010488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191010488","pubTimestamp":1656202469,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191010488?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-26 08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191010488","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as theS&P 500 was on its way to a 35% dipthat bottomed in 1942. Since then, he's managed through 12 more bear markets not including this one.Despite those downturns, Buffett has managed to create billions in value for himself and the shareholders of the company he runs,Berkshire Hathaway. If any investor is qualified to share wisdom on investing in bear markets, it's Buffett.So it m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as the S&amp;P 500 was on its way to a 35% dip that bottomed in 1942. Since then, he&#39;s managed through 12 more bear markets not including this one.</p><p>Despite those downturns, Buffett has managed to create billions in value for himself and the shareholders of the company he runs, Berkshire Hathaway. If any investor is qualified to share wisdom on investing in bear markets, it&#39;s Buffett.</p><p>So it makes sense to lean on his expertise to get through this tough climate with your wealth intact, right? To get you started, here are four of Buffett&#39;s famous rules for investing in a bear market.</p><p>1. Buy quality merchandise on sale</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Whether we&#39;re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Buffett invests in high-quality businesses -- companies with a proven ability to create shareholder value through all economic climates. In his view, bear markets provide opportunities to buy these quality stocks at lower prices.</p><p>As an example, Buffett&#39;s response earlier this year to the tech stock sell-off was to buy more of his favorite technology company, Apple. Although Apple already comprised more than 40% of Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s portfolio, Buffett bought another 3.78 million shares.</p><p>You can mimic his strategy by identifying stocks you love for their long-term prospects. If your budget allows, increase your investing activity and pad your share counts while prices remain low.</p><p>2. Hold forever</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Our favorite holding period is forever.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>When you buy stocks you&#39;d like to hold forever, bear markets become far less stressful. Since your plan is to hold for the long run, you don&#39;t have to do anything when the market goes sideways. No reshuffling your portfolio and no guessing when share prices will bottom out. Your only job is to wait.</p><p>3. Stay calm</p><blockquote><i>&#34;The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>It&#39;s normal and useful to second-guess your &#34;hold forever&#34; plan when circumstances change. Certainly, there will be times when you should drop a stock you thought was a keeper.</p><p>The distinction you must make is whether circumstances have changed permanently or temporarily. And that&#39;s easier to do when you can analyze what&#39;s happening calmly and rationally. If you let your emotions take over, they can convince you to scrap your plan, cut your losses, or take some other dramatic action that&#39;s sure to dampen your long-term returns.</p><p>4. Keep your distance</p><p>Buffett said this when asked what advice he had for investors in tough markets:<i>&#34;I would tell them: Don&#39;t watch the market too closely.&#34;</i></p><p>Let&#39;s say you&#39;re confident that your &#34;hold forever&#34; stocks can withstand a temporary bear market. And for that reason, you&#39;re not going to react to falling share prices. In that scenario, what&#39;s the benefit of tracking every bump along the way? There isn&#39;t one.</p><p>It&#39;s OK to keep some distance from financial headlines when the market is going crazy. Consider it a survival strategy that helps you stay calm and stick to your investing plan.</p><p>Buy or do nothing</p><p>When a bear market sets in, you&#39;ll see Buffett mostly buy or hold. If you&#39;re questioning whether those are the right moves for your portfolio, remember this: Buffett is worth about $95 billion, and he has invested through more bear markets than almost anyone. His tactics can help you emerge from this bear market stronger and wealthier than ever.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-26 08:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1943735/how-to-pick-great-value-stocks-like-warren-buffett?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID01-txt-1943735><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as the S&P 500 was on its way to a 35% dip that bottomed in 1942. Since then, he's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1943735/how-to-pick-great-value-stocks-like-warren-buffett?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID01-txt-1943735\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1943735/how-to-pick-great-value-stocks-like-warren-buffett?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID01-txt-1943735","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191010488","content_text":"Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as the S&P 500 was on its way to a 35% dip that bottomed in 1942. Since then, he's managed through 12 more bear markets not including this one.Despite those downturns, Buffett has managed to create billions in value for himself and the shareholders of the company he runs, Berkshire Hathaway. If any investor is qualified to share wisdom on investing in bear markets, it's Buffett.So it makes sense to lean on his expertise to get through this tough climate with your wealth intact, right? To get you started, here are four of Buffett's famous rules for investing in a bear market.1. Buy quality merchandise on sale\"Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.\"Buffett invests in high-quality businesses -- companies with a proven ability to create shareholder value through all economic climates. In his view, bear markets provide opportunities to buy these quality stocks at lower prices.As an example, Buffett's response earlier this year to the tech stock sell-off was to buy more of his favorite technology company, Apple. Although Apple already comprised more than 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, Buffett bought another 3.78 million shares.You can mimic his strategy by identifying stocks you love for their long-term prospects. If your budget allows, increase your investing activity and pad your share counts while prices remain low.2. Hold forever\"Our favorite holding period is forever.\"When you buy stocks you'd like to hold forever, bear markets become far less stressful. Since your plan is to hold for the long run, you don't have to do anything when the market goes sideways. No reshuffling your portfolio and no guessing when share prices will bottom out. Your only job is to wait.3. Stay calm\"The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.\"It's normal and useful to second-guess your \"hold forever\" plan when circumstances change. Certainly, there will be times when you should drop a stock you thought was a keeper.The distinction you must make is whether circumstances have changed permanently or temporarily. And that's easier to do when you can analyze what's happening calmly and rationally. If you let your emotions take over, they can convince you to scrap your plan, cut your losses, or take some other dramatic action that's sure to dampen your long-term returns.4. Keep your distanceBuffett said this when asked what advice he had for investors in tough markets:\"I would tell them: Don't watch the market too closely.\"Let's say you're confident that your \"hold forever\" stocks can withstand a temporary bear market. And for that reason, you're not going to react to falling share prices. In that scenario, what's the benefit of tracking every bump along the way? There isn't one.It's OK to keep some distance from financial headlines when the market is going crazy. Consider it a survival strategy that helps you stay calm and stick to your investing plan.Buy or do nothingWhen a bear market sets in, you'll see Buffett mostly buy or hold. If you're questioning whether those are the right moves for your portfolio, remember this: Buffett is worth about $95 billion, and he has invested through more bear markets than almost anyone. His tactics can help you emerge from this bear market stronger and wealthier than ever.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9041488874,"gmtCreate":1656086010198,"gmtModify":1676535765297,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Now is a good time to get your toes wet, then buy when the real recession hits. Apple issuch a household name its very hard to see it not be a long term success/stock for the future","listText":"Now is a good time to get your toes wet, then buy when the real recession hits. Apple issuch a household name its very hard to see it not be a long term success/stock for the future","text":"Now is a good time to get your toes wet, then buy when the real recession hits. Apple issuch a household name its very hard to see it not be a long term success/stock for the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9041488874","repostId":"2245311224","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2245311224","pubTimestamp":1656058978,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2245311224?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-24 16:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Now A Good Time To Buy Apple Stock As It Dips?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2245311224","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryApple's shares have lost a quarter of their value year-to-date in 2022, and AAPL now trades a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Apple&#39;s shares have lost a quarter of their value year-to-date in 2022, and AAPL now trades at 22.0 times forward P/E, which is close to its five-year historical average.</li><li>A key share price driver for AAPL in the near term will be supply-side headwinds turning out to be less severe than feared, as seen with reduced product lead times.</li><li>Apple is a Buy now, as the stock should command higher valuation multiples with an improvement in profitability over time driven by higher services revenue contribution.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f69d8740cc2bafe8656b09f1d0bcff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Ivan-balvan/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Elevator Pitch</b></p><p>My investment rating for Apple Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares is a Buy. I did a comparison of Apple and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) in my previous April 6, 2022, article, and determined that AAPL was the better buy. In this latest update for AAPL, I analyze whether a buying opportunity for Apple has emerged as a result of the pullback in the company&#39;s share price year-to-date in 2022.</p><p>This is a good time to buy Apple&#39;s stock, as the dip in its share price year-to-date has made its valuations more attractive with its forward P/E multiple reverting close to its five-year historical mean. There is room for AAPL&#39;s valuation multiples to expand in tandem with higher profit margins resulting from a superior sales mix tilted towards services.</p><p>AAPL Stock Basics</p><p>Prior to touching on AAPL&#39;s stock price correction, valuations, and outlook, it is relevant to revisit the basics for Apple. In other words, I will be discussing the company&#39;s business model and the investment thesis for the stock in the current section of this article.</p><p>Apple&#39;s business model is to continue expanding the installed base for its flagship hardware device, the iPhone, and cross-sell other hardware products and services to its iPhone users.</p><p>At the company&#39;s earnings call for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 (YE September 30) on January 27, 2022, Apple disclosed that its &#34;installed base of active devices&#34; has set &#34;a new all-time record of 1.8 billion devices.&#34; AAPL updated investors at its Q2 FY 2022 results briefing on April 28, 2022, that the company&#39;s &#34;installed base (of active devices) has continued to grow&#34;, while noting that &#34;the iPhone active installed base reached &#34;a new all-time high.&#34; According to the Business of Apps website&#39;s compilation of data on AAPL, the number of active iPhones (excluding other hardware devices such as iPads) on a worldwide basis had already crossed the 1.2 billion mark by the end of last year.</p><p>The investment thesis for AAPL is closely linked to its business model. Revenue for Apple&#39;s services like the App Store is expected to grow over time in tandem with the increase in the installed base for AAPL&#39;s iPhones and other hardware devices. This should translate into higher profit margins and faster earnings growth for Apple in the medium to long term, as AAPL benefits from a more favorable revenue mix with a rising proportion of sales contribution from higher-margin services.</p><p>The gross profit margin for Apple&#39;s services segment was 72.6% in Q2 FY 2022, which was twice that of the products segment&#39;s gross margin of 36.4% in the same quarter as highlighted at its most recent quarterly investor call. Also, AAPL only derived approximately 20% of its total Q2 FY 2022 revenue from services as per its quarterly earnings press release, so there is room for the company to further optimize its sales mix with a bias towards growing revenue contribution from services at a faster pace.</p><p>In the next section, I focus on Apple&#39;s stock price decline thus far this year.</p><p><b>Why Did Apple Stock Drop?</b></p><p>Apple&#39;s stock price dropped by -25.6% in 2022 thus far, and it underperformed the S&amp;P 500 which was down by -21.0% during the same period.</p><p><b>AAPL&#39;s 2022 Year-to-date Share Price Chart</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39057828144a7f0bc9c470f048173d9e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>AAPL&#39;s share price weakness is partly attributed to the correction in the broader stock market and technology stocks as a result of investors&#39; worries over higher-than-expected inflation and a potential recession. But there are also company-specific factors that have driven a decline in Apple&#39;s stock price.</p><p>In the past three months, the Q3 FY 2022 consensus earnings per share estimate for Apple has been reduced by -7.5%. Specifically, 25 of the 44 Wall Street analysts covering AAPL&#39;s shares lowered their third-quarter EPS forecasts for the company in the last three months. This is consistent with Apple&#39;s forward-looking management guidance.</p><p>At its Q2 FY 2022 earnings briefing, AAPL had guided for a $4-$8 billion hit to its third-quarter revenue resulting from &#34;COVID-related disruptions (more specifically lockdowns in China) and industry-wide silicon shortages.&#34; The company also highlighted that it expects unfavorable exchange rate fluctuations and the suspension of sales in Russia to impact the YoY growth for its Q3 FY 2022 top line by -3.0 percentage points and -1.5 percentage points, respectively.</p><p>In the next section I touch on whether Apple&#39;s valuations have become more attractive after the year-to-date pull-back in its share price.</p><p><b>Is Apple Stock A Good Value Now?</b></p><p>Following the -25% decline in its stock price thus far this year, Apple&#39;s consensus forward next twelve months&#39; normalized P/E multiple has compressed from its 2022 year-to-date peak of 31.9 times as of January 3, 2022, to 22.0 times as of June 22, as per<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>.</p><p>AAPL is currently trading at 22.0 times forward P/E, which is roughly on par with its five-year mean forward P/E multiple of 21.4 times. When the short-term headwinds (as discussed in the preceding section) eventually ease and the company manages to achieve a more optimal sales mix biased towards higher-margin services in the future, Apple should be able to trade at the high end of its five-year forward P/E valuation range (AAPL&#39;s peak forward P/E multiple in the last five years was 36.6 times) again.</p><p>In conclusion, I think Apple&#39;s stock is good value now, considering its historical valuations and future profitability outlook.</p><p><b>Is Apple Expected To Rise Again?</b></p><p>I am of the opinion that Apple&#39;s stock price is expected to rise again in the short term.</p><p>According to JPMorgan&#39;s (JPM) &#34;Global Product Availability Lead Time Tracker&#34; research report (not publicly available) published on June 19, 2022, the worldwide &#34;lead times in general moderated for Mac and iPads&#34; for the week ended June 17, 2022, which the JPM analysts highlight is &#34;in line with the reopening in China.&#34; Also, JPM&#39;s recent research work found that the current lead times for AAPL&#39;s other products such as the iPhone stayed low at below a week.</p><p>This is consistent with the findings from another bank&#39;s research team. Morgan Stanley (MS) published its North American IT hardware &#34;Monthly Data Tracker&#34; report (not publicly available) on June 22, 2022, which noted that the lead time for the iPad decreased from 15 days as of June 9, 2022, to 14 days as of June 16, 2022. Similarly, the MS analysts&#39; research work suggests that the lead time for the MacBook Pro M1 declined from 62 days to 56 days over the same period.</p><p>In my view, an easing of supply chain constraints as evidenced by the improvement in lead times mentioned above should be a positive re-rating catalyst for Apple in the short term.</p><p><b>What Is The Long-Term Prediction For Apple Stock?</b></p><p>The key aspect of any long-term financial predictions for Apple is the potential improvement in the company&#39;s profitability. As I discussed earlier in this article, a growing percentage of sales derived from higher-margin services should result in an expansion of Apple&#39;s profit margins in the long run. Based on financial projections sourced from<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>, AAPL&#39;s gross profit margin is forecasted to increase from 41.8% in fiscal 2021 to 43.5% by FY 2026.</p><p>The market&#39;s expectations of increased services revenue contribution and improved profitability are reasonable. Apple has been putting in a huge amount of effort to make it easier for the company to cross-sell additional hardware devices and services to its iPhone users as seen with its recent press release.</p><p>On June 6, 2022, Apple revealed the features of its new operating system for the iPhone (iOS16), and also disclosed the introduction of two new laptops.</p><p>In this announcement, AAPL explained that certain &#34;new features for Apple&#39;s Macs and iPads are designed to make it easier to sync with the iPhone.&#34; As an example, the iPhone can be utilized as &#34;a webcam&#34; for &#34;video calls&#34; on Macs going forward, as highlighted in an article published by The Verge on the same day of Apple&#39;s announcement.</p><p>Separately, Apple&#39;s new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro devices will come with Apple&#39;s M2 chip. The company noted in the June 6, 2022, announcement that this is aligned with its goal of &#34;helping people toggle from one Apple device to another.&#34;</p><p>In summary, AAPL is moving in the right direction with new initiatives to enhance integration across the company&#39;s various hardware products, which will increase user switching costs and boost cross-selling efforts (for other hardware devices and services). I predict that this should eventually lead to higher profit margins (consensus FY 2026 gross margin of 43.5%) and an expansion of valuation multiples (current forward P/E multiple of 22.0 times versus five-year P/E of 36.6 times) for Apple.</p><p><b>Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p>AAPL stock is a Buy. Apple&#39;s current P/E valuations are undemanding, and there are both short-term catalysts (easing of supply chain constraints) and long-term drivers (profitability improvement) for the company&#39;s shares.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Now A Good Time To Buy Apple Stock As It Dips?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Now A Good Time To Buy Apple Stock As It Dips?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-24 16:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519942-is-now-good-time-buy-apple-stock?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A12><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple's shares have lost a quarter of their value year-to-date in 2022, and AAPL now trades at 22.0 times forward P/E, which is close to its five-year historical average.A key share price ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519942-is-now-good-time-buy-apple-stock?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A12\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519942-is-now-good-time-buy-apple-stock?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2245311224","content_text":"SummaryApple's shares have lost a quarter of their value year-to-date in 2022, and AAPL now trades at 22.0 times forward P/E, which is close to its five-year historical average.A key share price driver for AAPL in the near term will be supply-side headwinds turning out to be less severe than feared, as seen with reduced product lead times.Apple is a Buy now, as the stock should command higher valuation multiples with an improvement in profitability over time driven by higher services revenue contribution.Ivan-balvan/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesElevator PitchMy investment rating for Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares is a Buy. I did a comparison of Apple and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) in my previous April 6, 2022, article, and determined that AAPL was the better buy. In this latest update for AAPL, I analyze whether a buying opportunity for Apple has emerged as a result of the pullback in the company's share price year-to-date in 2022.This is a good time to buy Apple's stock, as the dip in its share price year-to-date has made its valuations more attractive with its forward P/E multiple reverting close to its five-year historical mean. There is room for AAPL's valuation multiples to expand in tandem with higher profit margins resulting from a superior sales mix tilted towards services.AAPL Stock BasicsPrior to touching on AAPL's stock price correction, valuations, and outlook, it is relevant to revisit the basics for Apple. In other words, I will be discussing the company's business model and the investment thesis for the stock in the current section of this article.Apple's business model is to continue expanding the installed base for its flagship hardware device, the iPhone, and cross-sell other hardware products and services to its iPhone users.At the company's earnings call for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 (YE September 30) on January 27, 2022, Apple disclosed that its \"installed base of active devices\" has set \"a new all-time record of 1.8 billion devices.\" AAPL updated investors at its Q2 FY 2022 results briefing on April 28, 2022, that the company's \"installed base (of active devices) has continued to grow\", while noting that \"the iPhone active installed base reached \"a new all-time high.\" According to the Business of Apps website's compilation of data on AAPL, the number of active iPhones (excluding other hardware devices such as iPads) on a worldwide basis had already crossed the 1.2 billion mark by the end of last year.The investment thesis for AAPL is closely linked to its business model. Revenue for Apple's services like the App Store is expected to grow over time in tandem with the increase in the installed base for AAPL's iPhones and other hardware devices. This should translate into higher profit margins and faster earnings growth for Apple in the medium to long term, as AAPL benefits from a more favorable revenue mix with a rising proportion of sales contribution from higher-margin services.The gross profit margin for Apple's services segment was 72.6% in Q2 FY 2022, which was twice that of the products segment's gross margin of 36.4% in the same quarter as highlighted at its most recent quarterly investor call. Also, AAPL only derived approximately 20% of its total Q2 FY 2022 revenue from services as per its quarterly earnings press release, so there is room for the company to further optimize its sales mix with a bias towards growing revenue contribution from services at a faster pace.In the next section, I focus on Apple's stock price decline thus far this year.Why Did Apple Stock Drop?Apple's stock price dropped by -25.6% in 2022 thus far, and it underperformed the S&P 500 which was down by -21.0% during the same period.AAPL's 2022 Year-to-date Share Price ChartSeeking AlphaAAPL's share price weakness is partly attributed to the correction in the broader stock market and technology stocks as a result of investors' worries over higher-than-expected inflation and a potential recession. But there are also company-specific factors that have driven a decline in Apple's stock price.In the past three months, the Q3 FY 2022 consensus earnings per share estimate for Apple has been reduced by -7.5%. Specifically, 25 of the 44 Wall Street analysts covering AAPL's shares lowered their third-quarter EPS forecasts for the company in the last three months. This is consistent with Apple's forward-looking management guidance.At its Q2 FY 2022 earnings briefing, AAPL had guided for a $4-$8 billion hit to its third-quarter revenue resulting from \"COVID-related disruptions (more specifically lockdowns in China) and industry-wide silicon shortages.\" The company also highlighted that it expects unfavorable exchange rate fluctuations and the suspension of sales in Russia to impact the YoY growth for its Q3 FY 2022 top line by -3.0 percentage points and -1.5 percentage points, respectively.In the next section I touch on whether Apple's valuations have become more attractive after the year-to-date pull-back in its share price.Is Apple Stock A Good Value Now?Following the -25% decline in its stock price thus far this year, Apple's consensus forward next twelve months' normalized P/E multiple has compressed from its 2022 year-to-date peak of 31.9 times as of January 3, 2022, to 22.0 times as of June 22, as perS&P Capital IQ.AAPL is currently trading at 22.0 times forward P/E, which is roughly on par with its five-year mean forward P/E multiple of 21.4 times. When the short-term headwinds (as discussed in the preceding section) eventually ease and the company manages to achieve a more optimal sales mix biased towards higher-margin services in the future, Apple should be able to trade at the high end of its five-year forward P/E valuation range (AAPL's peak forward P/E multiple in the last five years was 36.6 times) again.In conclusion, I think Apple's stock is good value now, considering its historical valuations and future profitability outlook.Is Apple Expected To Rise Again?I am of the opinion that Apple's stock price is expected to rise again in the short term.According to JPMorgan's (JPM) \"Global Product Availability Lead Time Tracker\" research report (not publicly available) published on June 19, 2022, the worldwide \"lead times in general moderated for Mac and iPads\" for the week ended June 17, 2022, which the JPM analysts highlight is \"in line with the reopening in China.\" Also, JPM's recent research work found that the current lead times for AAPL's other products such as the iPhone stayed low at below a week.This is consistent with the findings from another bank's research team. Morgan Stanley (MS) published its North American IT hardware \"Monthly Data Tracker\" report (not publicly available) on June 22, 2022, which noted that the lead time for the iPad decreased from 15 days as of June 9, 2022, to 14 days as of June 16, 2022. Similarly, the MS analysts' research work suggests that the lead time for the MacBook Pro M1 declined from 62 days to 56 days over the same period.In my view, an easing of supply chain constraints as evidenced by the improvement in lead times mentioned above should be a positive re-rating catalyst for Apple in the short term.What Is The Long-Term Prediction For Apple Stock?The key aspect of any long-term financial predictions for Apple is the potential improvement in the company's profitability. As I discussed earlier in this article, a growing percentage of sales derived from higher-margin services should result in an expansion of Apple's profit margins in the long run. Based on financial projections sourced fromS&P Capital IQ, AAPL's gross profit margin is forecasted to increase from 41.8% in fiscal 2021 to 43.5% by FY 2026.The market's expectations of increased services revenue contribution and improved profitability are reasonable. Apple has been putting in a huge amount of effort to make it easier for the company to cross-sell additional hardware devices and services to its iPhone users as seen with its recent press release.On June 6, 2022, Apple revealed the features of its new operating system for the iPhone (iOS16), and also disclosed the introduction of two new laptops.In this announcement, AAPL explained that certain \"new features for Apple's Macs and iPads are designed to make it easier to sync with the iPhone.\" As an example, the iPhone can be utilized as \"a webcam\" for \"video calls\" on Macs going forward, as highlighted in an article published by The Verge on the same day of Apple's announcement.Separately, Apple's new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro devices will come with Apple's M2 chip. The company noted in the June 6, 2022, announcement that this is aligned with its goal of \"helping people toggle from one Apple device to another.\"In summary, AAPL is moving in the right direction with new initiatives to enhance integration across the company's various hardware products, which will increase user switching costs and boost cross-selling efforts (for other hardware devices and services). I predict that this should eventually lead to higher profit margins (consensus FY 2026 gross margin of 43.5%) and an expansion of valuation multiples (current forward P/E multiple of 22.0 times versus five-year P/E of 36.6 times) for Apple.Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?AAPL stock is a Buy. Apple's current P/E valuations are undemanding, and there are both short-term catalysts (easing of supply chain constraints) and long-term drivers (profitability improvement) for the company's shares.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043479198,"gmtCreate":1655956829314,"gmtModify":1676535740327,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anything below $125 is a steal, even more so&nbsp;$117 hahaha","listText":"Anything below $125 is a steal, even more so&nbsp;$117 hahaha","text":"Anything below $125 is a steal, even more so $117 hahaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043479198","repostId":"1100864406","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100864406","pubTimestamp":1655954846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100864406?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-23 11:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Bites Keep Coming For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100864406","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple initially created support at $150.With that support breaking, it created support at $13","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Apple initially created support at $150.</li><li>With that support breaking, it created support at $132.</li><li>We will examine the latest break below $132 in this article.</li></ul><p>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been in a long term uptrend which appears to have come to an end during late April 2022. It then saw a clear lower low on a macro timeframe, contributed to by rising inflation globally, coupled with supply chain issues. This article covers Apple&#39;s break of its previous low and how it can potentially land at $117 next.</p><p>Apple is in a three wave structure where, if wave three numerically replicates wave one, it will land at $117. Apple topped out in this current structure at $182. Dropping to $150 to form the now wave one downwards before seeing an attempt to break above $182 but ultimately failing at the $179 region. This can now be interpreted as the macro wave two, with a drop below $150 confirming the wave three. So far, Apple has bottomed in the current pattern at $132.</p><p>Firstly we can look at the monthly chart to identify the three macro waves in play. Then, we move to the weekly chart to examine the latest break down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bac91fa72b55443353e48bf8ac238da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"981\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple monthly</p><p>In the monthly chart above, we can see wave one $182-$150. Wave two, $150-$179. A clear break below $150 technically commences the wave three. We can also see the initial attempt at creating support at $132. Now we can move to the weekly structure to examine this latest lower low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da3354013f3f78c61665e4028c40e177\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1019\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple weekly</p><p>Here, it is possible to identify the macro wave two high at $179 in more detail, with a clear drop to the $132 region before finding a bullish weekly candle. In order for a three wave pattern to form, ideally a bullish candle is needed in a bearish set up. This is the signal that confirms the mismatch between buyers and sellers.</p><p>In a bullish pattern, the opposite is needed, a bearish rejection which then would confirm the mismatch in an upward structure. This break of $132 is specifically relevant, as with the bullish candle formation it technically creates an internal wave inside the macro chart that can see Apple potentially go lower again. However, concentrating on the monthly chart, it is clear Apple has broken lower again from its previous support.</p><p>If wave three numerically copies wave one, Apple will land at $117, where I will be then looking for three wave patterns lending to its next immediate direction. I would expect Apple to complete its third wave and land at target in the next 90-120 days. An immediate move above $153, which is the high of the bullish weekly candle, would lower the probability of the third wave completing and a break above $182 before touching $117, rendering the third wave a fail. Given the advances Apple has made downwards since its break of $150, I have listed a strong sell for this equity.</p><p><b>About the Three Wave Theory</b></p><p>The three wave theory was designed to be able to identify exact probable price action of a financial instrument. A financial market cannot navigate it&#39;s way significantly higher or lower without making waves. Waves are essentially a mismatch between buyers and sellers and print a picture of a probable direction and target for a financial instrument. When waves one and two have been formed, it is the point of higher high/lower low that gives the technical indication of the future direction. A wave one will continue from a low to a high point before it finds significant enough rejection to then form the wave two. When a third wave breaks into a higher high/lower low the only probable numerical target bearing available on a financial chart is the equivalent of the wave one low to high point. It is highly probable that the wave three will look to numerically replicate wave one before it makes its future directional decision. It may continue past its third wave target but it is only the wave one evidence that a price was able to continue before rejection that is available to look to as a probable target for a third wave.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Bites Keep Coming For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Bites Keep Coming For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-23 11:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519684-the-bites-keep-coming-for-apple?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A32><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple initially created support at $150.With that support breaking, it created support at $132.We will examine the latest break below $132 in this article.Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been in a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519684-the-bites-keep-coming-for-apple?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A32\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519684-the-bites-keep-coming-for-apple?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A32","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100864406","content_text":"SummaryApple initially created support at $150.With that support breaking, it created support at $132.We will examine the latest break below $132 in this article.Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been in a long term uptrend which appears to have come to an end during late April 2022. It then saw a clear lower low on a macro timeframe, contributed to by rising inflation globally, coupled with supply chain issues. This article covers Apple's break of its previous low and how it can potentially land at $117 next.Apple is in a three wave structure where, if wave three numerically replicates wave one, it will land at $117. Apple topped out in this current structure at $182. Dropping to $150 to form the now wave one downwards before seeing an attempt to break above $182 but ultimately failing at the $179 region. This can now be interpreted as the macro wave two, with a drop below $150 confirming the wave three. So far, Apple has bottomed in the current pattern at $132.Firstly we can look at the monthly chart to identify the three macro waves in play. Then, we move to the weekly chart to examine the latest break down.Apple monthlyIn the monthly chart above, we can see wave one $182-$150. Wave two, $150-$179. A clear break below $150 technically commences the wave three. We can also see the initial attempt at creating support at $132. Now we can move to the weekly structure to examine this latest lower low.Apple weeklyHere, it is possible to identify the macro wave two high at $179 in more detail, with a clear drop to the $132 region before finding a bullish weekly candle. In order for a three wave pattern to form, ideally a bullish candle is needed in a bearish set up. This is the signal that confirms the mismatch between buyers and sellers.In a bullish pattern, the opposite is needed, a bearish rejection which then would confirm the mismatch in an upward structure. This break of $132 is specifically relevant, as with the bullish candle formation it technically creates an internal wave inside the macro chart that can see Apple potentially go lower again. However, concentrating on the monthly chart, it is clear Apple has broken lower again from its previous support.If wave three numerically copies wave one, Apple will land at $117, where I will be then looking for three wave patterns lending to its next immediate direction. I would expect Apple to complete its third wave and land at target in the next 90-120 days. An immediate move above $153, which is the high of the bullish weekly candle, would lower the probability of the third wave completing and a break above $182 before touching $117, rendering the third wave a fail. Given the advances Apple has made downwards since its break of $150, I have listed a strong sell for this equity.About the Three Wave TheoryThe three wave theory was designed to be able to identify exact probable price action of a financial instrument. A financial market cannot navigate it's way significantly higher or lower without making waves. Waves are essentially a mismatch between buyers and sellers and print a picture of a probable direction and target for a financial instrument. When waves one and two have been formed, it is the point of higher high/lower low that gives the technical indication of the future direction. A wave one will continue from a low to a high point before it finds significant enough rejection to then form the wave two. When a third wave breaks into a higher high/lower low the only probable numerical target bearing available on a financial chart is the equivalent of the wave one low to high point. It is highly probable that the wave three will look to numerically replicate wave one before it makes its future directional decision. It may continue past its third wave target but it is only the wave one evidence that a price was able to continue before rejection that is available to look to as a probable target for a third wave.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054119739,"gmtCreate":1655351383221,"gmtModify":1676535621073,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy birthday Tiger!!","listText":"Happy birthday Tiger!!","text":"Happy birthday Tiger!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054119739","repostId":"9022524674","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9022524674,"gmtCreate":1653552819200,"gmtModify":1676535303082,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Time Travel with Tiger, Join the Memorabilia Adventure Now!!!","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi\n \n","listText":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","text":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022524674","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"97af7069aa6440eab7c85601f72b41b1","tweetId":"9022524674","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/5836ee3f387702302012189230/1IRQdazMc4YA.mp4","poster":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2462b20b2a9a2483ae56cbb54dcb2a7"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088011533,"gmtCreate":1650289851051,"gmtModify":1676534687571,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A controversial stock for sure, but I'm def leaning more towards the bullish stance","listText":"A controversial stock for sure, but I'm def leaning more towards the bullish stance","text":"A controversial stock for sure, but I'm def leaning more towards the bullish stance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088011533","repostId":"2227604635","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2227604635","pubTimestamp":1650250514,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227604635?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-18 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Assessing The Paradox Between Strong Fundamentals And A Weakening Share Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227604635","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryAlmost all of Nvidia's gains from the mid-March rally have been erased in the current month's","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Almost all of Nvidia&#39;s gains from the mid-March rally have been erased in the current month&#39;s extended semiconductor rout.</li><li>A new 40-year record on the latest U.S. inflation print is increasing investors&#39; angst over a potentially slowing economic outlook.</li><li>An increasingly aggressive stance taken by the Fed on tightening monetary policies in response to runaway price increases is also making headwinds for high valuation growth stocks like Nvidia.</li><li>The semiconductor industry is now the market&#39;s underdog, despite strong fundamental prospects on a robust demand environment buoyed by rapid global digitization trends in coming years.</li><li>Considering Nvidia&#39;s market leadership in the provision of processors and software used for enabling critical next-generation technologies like data centers and autonomous driving development, the stock remains on a positive trajectory towards further upsides over the longer term, despite the transitory market turbulence ahead.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5684060b5bab2f0aa3704fc4a205bfad\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Antonio Bordunovi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>The Nvidia stock (NASDAQ:NVDA) has traded in its strong two-week rally preceding the end of the first quarter for steep losses of more than 20% this month. The stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-11% month-to-date), as well as broad-market benchmark indexes like the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-6% MTD) and S&amp;P 500 (-3% MTD).</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s, alongside its industry peers&#39;, latest selloff comes as a result of mounting investor concerns over dampening consumer sentiment ahead of soaring inflation, as well as increasing risks of an economic downturn on the Fed&#39;s aggressive trajectory towards monetary policy tightening. Potential adverse impacts to near-term fundamentals resulting from intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflicts and ensuing sanctions that were previously downplayed are now also becoming more pronounced. Worries heightened over added pressure on already-fragile supply chains and effects on industry sales after Russian President Putin vowed to continue its &#34;military operation&#34;, citing peace talks with Ukraine have now reached a &#34;dead end&#34;.</p><p>Yet, from company-specific and longer-term perspective, Nvidia&#39;s financial outlook remains robust, thanks to its continued prowess and market leadership in graphics cards and artificial intelligence. As discussed in our previous commentary on Nvidia&#39;s latest GTC presentation, the chipmaker&#39;s continued commitment to innovation will only further its growth opportunities over the longer term, while also bolstering its competitive leadership ahead of a bullish chip demand environment.</p><p>The near-term macroeconomic challenges may be fuelling the paradox in Nvidia&#39;s near-term stock price movement, but its fundamental strength and outperformance are expected to prevail and regain investors&#39; confidence over the longer term.</p><p><b>Brewing Macroeconomic Implications on the Semiconductor Industry</b></p><p>Hot off the press Tuesday was the U.S.&#39; March inflation print. The number hit a fresh 40-year peak at 8.5% due to soaring commodity costs on protracted COVID and war disruptions on supply chains, fanning market fears over a multitude of macroeconomic challenges ahead. Investors were already spooked by a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials and aggressive monetary policy tightening plans outlined in the FOMC March meeting minutes released earlier this month, leading to the stock market declines observed over the past two weeks. And with the latest CPI data coming in at another generational all-time high, markets are bracing for the &#34;fastest monetary tightening since 1994&#34;, which combines a half percentage point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC May meeting and an aggressive rundown of the Fed balance sheet beginning as soon as June.</p><p>Both policy tightening tools aimed at quelling inflation at all costs certainly do not bode well with risk assets - especially high valuation growth stocks like Nvidia. On one hand, rising interest rates spell higher costs of borrowing, making it more expensive for a sector that is focused on investing in long-horizon growth. Although Nvidia&#39;s strong balance sheet (low leverage, high operational cash inflow) provides insulation on this front, aggressive rate hikes ahead still risk eroding the present value of its future earnings.</p><p>Meanwhile, on the other hand, an aggressive rundown of the Fed&#39;s balance sheet, which is currently capped at $1 trillion per year based on the March meeting minutes released, also fuels the risk-off environment in equities. U.S. Treasury yields have already been surging on an extended sell-off and briefly surpassed 2.8% earlier this week for the first time since March 2019. The benchmark inflation-adjusted yield is now nearing positive territory, meaning benchmark Treasury yield is close to surpassing inflation for the first time in two years. The trend, combined with rising interest rates&#39; threat on valuations, have together encouraged a further rotation away from growth stocks, which represent the &#34;riskiest corners of the market&#34; and are largely categorized as &#34;economically sensitive&#34;. This is further corroborated by losses observed in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which has lost more than $1 trillion of its market value over the past week.</p><p><b>Near-Term Fundamental Implications for Nvidia</b></p><p>Given the macroeconomic headwinds outlined above, investors are diverting focus from the March CPI data to the upcoming earnings season as they &#34;evaluate the threat from inflation, amid concerns that rising commodity costs and more circumspect consumers will end up squeezing company profits&#34;. But speculations on near-term fundamental adversities over the semiconductor industry are rising, further weighing on the industry&#39;s market performance in the past two weeks.</p><p>Recent analyst findings are warning of an &#34;unexpected decline in chip orders&#34; and a handful of &#34;order cancellations related to excess inventories&#34; observed in early April, which could imply a near-term demand slowdown stemming from reasons such as temporary production halts and delays due to COVID restrictions in China, as well as reduced sales due to sanctions imposed against Russia&#39;s assault on Ukraine. The bigger market worry is that consumer electronic OEMs are now cutting back on chip orders due to a structural downturn resulting from rising inventory stockpiles amassed during the worst of supply chain constraints. However, the scenario remains unlikely, considering demand for semiconductors remains higher than ever before, as evidenced by record sales reported by TSMC (TSM) and Analog Devices (ADI).</p><p>Accumulating macro and fundamental fears have driven declines of more than 7% in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index over the past week, marking one of the industry&#39;s worst sell-offs since January. Yet, global chip sales have increased by more than 30% year-on-year in February, marking the &#34;11th consecutive month of growth above 20%&#34;. With chips being an enabler of everyday essentials ranging from computers to cars to data center equipment, consensus estimates for sales and earnings growth in the current year are averaging 17% and 18%, respectively, up by more than four percentage points from prior year expectations and almost double of the average sales and earnings growth forecast for the S&amp;P 500. Even in the face of runaway inflation and aggressive tightening of central bank policies that risk pushing the economy into a recession, the demand environment for semiconductors - especially the full-stack, hardware-software offerings by Nvidia, which are critical to enabling digitization trends in the post-pandemic era - is unlikely to see any structural, massive contraction. The global chip supply shortage also remains prominent, especially with added pressure from impacted productions due to the recent outbreak of COVID infections across China. This will continue to buoy Nvidia&#39;s pricing power, and inadvertently, top-line growth, as downstream OEMs like automakers continue to look for ways to mitigate lost sales that topped $210 billion over the past year.</p><p>Despite speculations of some potential near-term slowdown, Nvidia&#39;s outlook on outperforming the broader semiconductor industry&#39;s average sales growth in the current period remains promising. And this will likely be the key determinant for the stock&#39;s rebound, as growth resilience is expected to restore investors&#39; confidence amidst mounting macro challenges. Our base case forecast expects total revenues for the fiscal first quarter ending April to increase by 43% year-on-year to $8.1 billion, which is largely consistent with management&#39;s issued guidance. And for the full fiscal 2023, total revenues are projected to increase 37% from the prior year to $36.8 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc1a5246f0ff31a5c974f402ac0ee3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia FY/2023 Revenue Projection (Author)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/980f0e86c6a8a047bae9ad8bc0da9030\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia Long-Term Revenue Projections (Author)</span></p><p>The forecast accounts for softer gaming revenue growth compared to the prior year, considering a potential slowdown in near-term discretionary consumer spending due to rising prices and nominal impact from the sanctioned Russian market. Over the longer term, Nvidia&#39;s continued commitment to innovation, as discussed in our previous coverage, will play a critical role in beating out competition and maintaining its market leadership in gaming. For instance, the newly launched &#34;NVIDIA H100&#34; GPU based on the newest &#34;Hopper&#34; architecture is expected to be &#34;the world&#39;s largest and most powerful accelerator&#34; for high-performance computing (&#34;HPC&#34;). According to Nvidia, &#34;twenty H100 GPUs can sustain the equivalent of the entire world&#39;s internet traffic&#34;, underscoring its continued prowess over next-generation computing and advantage over new offerings by industry peers, like the Intel Arc GPU (INTC).</p><p>Professional visualization segment revenues are expected to remain strong in the first half of the fiscal year on early-stage Omniverse-related sales, with continued ramp-up in adoption buoyed by new feature roll-outs and broadened application use cases. Meanwhile, automotive segment sales will remain impacted in the first half of the fiscal year due to worsening supply chain bottlenecks from the recent COVID resurgence in China and ongoing war in Ukraine, which have constrained auto production output in the current year. But over the longer term, Nvidia&#39;s full-stack autonomous driving solution offerings (&#34;NVIDIA DRIVE&#34;) will benefit from continued development and rapid adoption of self-driving technology.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e32941c569cc188aa04d3d80ec34be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia Financial Forecast (Author)</span></p><p><b>The Impact of Doubling Nvidia&#39;s Authorized Share Count</b></p><p>Aside from market-related headwinds, the latest company-specific challenge to the Nvidia stock&#39;s performance is the company&#39;s request for shareholder approval on doubling its current authorized share count. Nvidia outlined in its most recent Form PRE 14A filing to the SEC on April 8th that it is &#34;seeking approval of an amendment to [the] Restated Certificate of Incorporation to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock from 4 billion to 8 billion shares&#34; at the upcoming Annual Meeting of Stockholders in June.</p><p>Unlike mega-cap peer Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) recent proposal to shareholders for a share count increase to facilitate a potential stock split in the near term, Nvidia has only provided a generic statement on the matter, citing the proposed share count amendment would enable the issuance of shares for &#34;general corporate purpose, including, but not limited to, stock dividends and/or stock splits, expanding [the] business through mergers and acquisitions, providing equity incentives to employees, officers or directors, and the raising of additional capital&#34;.</p><p>The announcement pushed the stock 4% lower right out of the gate during Monday&#39;s (April 11th) regular session, underscoring investors&#39; fear for potential share dilution in the latter half of the year. But considering Nvidia&#39;s consistent growth track record and strong balance sheet, it is not one to act against shareholders&#39; interests. The proposed share count increase is likely resulting from the need for greater flexibility in raising capital to fund the company&#39;s longer-term investments, especially considering Nvidia&#39;s expanding innovative technology pipeline, which facilitates further capitalization on growth opportunities ahead. This is also consistent with the proposed funding structure on the previous Arm deal that had fallen through, which consisted of $21.5 billion in Nvidia common stock and $12 billion in cash. Equity funding complements the company&#39;s currently robust balance sheet as well, while also providing partial insulation from rising debt costs as a result of proposed rate hikes by the Federal Reserve over the next two years as discussed in earlier sections.</p><p>The other case is that the proposed increase to Nvidia&#39;s current authorized share count will be used to facilitate a potential stock split in the future, a favourable strategy that has regained popularity in recent months. While stock splits do not change a company&#39;s fundamentals, the strategy has historically dawned a rally for Nvidia, thanks to increased demand from retail investors who enjoy the ownership of whole shares but are averse to high prices. Considering Nvidia&#39;s accelerated business expansion and subsequent surge in valuation since its last stock split in 2021, a similar strategy could be in the works to attract greater market participation in the company&#39;s long-term growth prospects.</p><p><b>Valuation Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p>Nvidia&#39;s valuation premium to its semiconductor peers have largely diminished following the extended rout through April. Based on industry-wide valuation multiple contractions observed over the past several months in response to the current shaky macroeconomic climate, Nvidia&#39;s last traded share price in the $210s zone on April 12th tracks well on par with its peers. Based on the semiconductor peer group&#39;s forward implied growth-valuation correlation plotted below, applying Nvidia&#39;s projected 38% sales growth for the current year, as discussed in earlier sections, would yield an exit multiple of about 24x.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7f3a9e73e69a4ca6cf1df4ed42fdb04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Semiconductor Industry Peer Comp (Author)</span></p><p>Applying the 24x exit multiple alongside a 12.1% WACC determined based on Nvidia&#39;s current risk profile and capital structure to our discounted cash flow valuation analysis would result in a valuation of about $212 on a per-share basis.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3d3c836c4c2e8fe47927d1f97053e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia Valuation Analysis (Author)</span></p><p>However, considering Nvidia&#39;s historical valuation premium to peers, which is in our view reasonable given its market leadership (more than 80% GPU/AI processor market share) by wide margins against comparable peers, the stock will likely rebound to trade higher on proven growth resilience in the upcoming earnings season and once the market storm clears.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1317516748bc1c7801c5c6eb72fa6e82\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia Valuation Sensitivity Analysis (Author)</span></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Considering the structural importance of Nvidia&#39;s role in enabling core digitization trends in the coming decade, the company&#39;s demand environment remains one of the strongest in the industry despite the near-term macro challenges. While we are expecting further volatility leading up to the Fed&#39;s policy decision on rate hikes and its balance sheet reduction coming May, amongst other unresolved matters like extended COVID and war disruptions on already-fragile supply chains, the Nvidia stock remains on a positive track towards delivering a strong showing over the longer term.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Assessing The Paradox Between Strong Fundamentals And A Weakening Share Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Assessing The Paradox Between Strong Fundamentals And A Weakening Share Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-18 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501515-nvidia-assessing-paradox-between-strong-fundamentals-and-weakening-share-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlmost all of Nvidia's gains from the mid-March rally have been erased in the current month's extended semiconductor rout.A new 40-year record on the latest U.S. inflation print is increasing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501515-nvidia-assessing-paradox-between-strong-fundamentals-and-weakening-share-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4543":"AI","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501515-nvidia-assessing-paradox-between-strong-fundamentals-and-weakening-share-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2227604635","content_text":"SummaryAlmost all of Nvidia's gains from the mid-March rally have been erased in the current month's extended semiconductor rout.A new 40-year record on the latest U.S. inflation print is increasing investors' angst over a potentially slowing economic outlook.An increasingly aggressive stance taken by the Fed on tightening monetary policies in response to runaway price increases is also making headwinds for high valuation growth stocks like Nvidia.The semiconductor industry is now the market's underdog, despite strong fundamental prospects on a robust demand environment buoyed by rapid global digitization trends in coming years.Considering Nvidia's market leadership in the provision of processors and software used for enabling critical next-generation technologies like data centers and autonomous driving development, the stock remains on a positive trajectory towards further upsides over the longer term, despite the transitory market turbulence ahead.Antonio Bordunovi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe Nvidia stock (NASDAQ:NVDA) has traded in its strong two-week rally preceding the end of the first quarter for steep losses of more than 20% this month. The stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-11% month-to-date), as well as broad-market benchmark indexes like the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-6% MTD) and S&P 500 (-3% MTD).Nvidia's, alongside its industry peers', latest selloff comes as a result of mounting investor concerns over dampening consumer sentiment ahead of soaring inflation, as well as increasing risks of an economic downturn on the Fed's aggressive trajectory towards monetary policy tightening. Potential adverse impacts to near-term fundamentals resulting from intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflicts and ensuing sanctions that were previously downplayed are now also becoming more pronounced. Worries heightened over added pressure on already-fragile supply chains and effects on industry sales after Russian President Putin vowed to continue its \"military operation\", citing peace talks with Ukraine have now reached a \"dead end\".Yet, from company-specific and longer-term perspective, Nvidia's financial outlook remains robust, thanks to its continued prowess and market leadership in graphics cards and artificial intelligence. As discussed in our previous commentary on Nvidia's latest GTC presentation, the chipmaker's continued commitment to innovation will only further its growth opportunities over the longer term, while also bolstering its competitive leadership ahead of a bullish chip demand environment.The near-term macroeconomic challenges may be fuelling the paradox in Nvidia's near-term stock price movement, but its fundamental strength and outperformance are expected to prevail and regain investors' confidence over the longer term.Brewing Macroeconomic Implications on the Semiconductor IndustryHot off the press Tuesday was the U.S.' March inflation print. The number hit a fresh 40-year peak at 8.5% due to soaring commodity costs on protracted COVID and war disruptions on supply chains, fanning market fears over a multitude of macroeconomic challenges ahead. Investors were already spooked by a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials and aggressive monetary policy tightening plans outlined in the FOMC March meeting minutes released earlier this month, leading to the stock market declines observed over the past two weeks. And with the latest CPI data coming in at another generational all-time high, markets are bracing for the \"fastest monetary tightening since 1994\", which combines a half percentage point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC May meeting and an aggressive rundown of the Fed balance sheet beginning as soon as June.Both policy tightening tools aimed at quelling inflation at all costs certainly do not bode well with risk assets - especially high valuation growth stocks like Nvidia. On one hand, rising interest rates spell higher costs of borrowing, making it more expensive for a sector that is focused on investing in long-horizon growth. Although Nvidia's strong balance sheet (low leverage, high operational cash inflow) provides insulation on this front, aggressive rate hikes ahead still risk eroding the present value of its future earnings.Meanwhile, on the other hand, an aggressive rundown of the Fed's balance sheet, which is currently capped at $1 trillion per year based on the March meeting minutes released, also fuels the risk-off environment in equities. U.S. Treasury yields have already been surging on an extended sell-off and briefly surpassed 2.8% earlier this week for the first time since March 2019. The benchmark inflation-adjusted yield is now nearing positive territory, meaning benchmark Treasury yield is close to surpassing inflation for the first time in two years. The trend, combined with rising interest rates' threat on valuations, have together encouraged a further rotation away from growth stocks, which represent the \"riskiest corners of the market\" and are largely categorized as \"economically sensitive\". This is further corroborated by losses observed in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which has lost more than $1 trillion of its market value over the past week.Near-Term Fundamental Implications for NvidiaGiven the macroeconomic headwinds outlined above, investors are diverting focus from the March CPI data to the upcoming earnings season as they \"evaluate the threat from inflation, amid concerns that rising commodity costs and more circumspect consumers will end up squeezing company profits\". But speculations on near-term fundamental adversities over the semiconductor industry are rising, further weighing on the industry's market performance in the past two weeks.Recent analyst findings are warning of an \"unexpected decline in chip orders\" and a handful of \"order cancellations related to excess inventories\" observed in early April, which could imply a near-term demand slowdown stemming from reasons such as temporary production halts and delays due to COVID restrictions in China, as well as reduced sales due to sanctions imposed against Russia's assault on Ukraine. The bigger market worry is that consumer electronic OEMs are now cutting back on chip orders due to a structural downturn resulting from rising inventory stockpiles amassed during the worst of supply chain constraints. However, the scenario remains unlikely, considering demand for semiconductors remains higher than ever before, as evidenced by record sales reported by TSMC (TSM) and Analog Devices (ADI).Accumulating macro and fundamental fears have driven declines of more than 7% in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index over the past week, marking one of the industry's worst sell-offs since January. Yet, global chip sales have increased by more than 30% year-on-year in February, marking the \"11th consecutive month of growth above 20%\". With chips being an enabler of everyday essentials ranging from computers to cars to data center equipment, consensus estimates for sales and earnings growth in the current year are averaging 17% and 18%, respectively, up by more than four percentage points from prior year expectations and almost double of the average sales and earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500. Even in the face of runaway inflation and aggressive tightening of central bank policies that risk pushing the economy into a recession, the demand environment for semiconductors - especially the full-stack, hardware-software offerings by Nvidia, which are critical to enabling digitization trends in the post-pandemic era - is unlikely to see any structural, massive contraction. The global chip supply shortage also remains prominent, especially with added pressure from impacted productions due to the recent outbreak of COVID infections across China. This will continue to buoy Nvidia's pricing power, and inadvertently, top-line growth, as downstream OEMs like automakers continue to look for ways to mitigate lost sales that topped $210 billion over the past year.Despite speculations of some potential near-term slowdown, Nvidia's outlook on outperforming the broader semiconductor industry's average sales growth in the current period remains promising. And this will likely be the key determinant for the stock's rebound, as growth resilience is expected to restore investors' confidence amidst mounting macro challenges. Our base case forecast expects total revenues for the fiscal first quarter ending April to increase by 43% year-on-year to $8.1 billion, which is largely consistent with management's issued guidance. And for the full fiscal 2023, total revenues are projected to increase 37% from the prior year to $36.8 billion.Nvidia FY/2023 Revenue Projection (Author)Nvidia Long-Term Revenue Projections (Author)The forecast accounts for softer gaming revenue growth compared to the prior year, considering a potential slowdown in near-term discretionary consumer spending due to rising prices and nominal impact from the sanctioned Russian market. Over the longer term, Nvidia's continued commitment to innovation, as discussed in our previous coverage, will play a critical role in beating out competition and maintaining its market leadership in gaming. For instance, the newly launched \"NVIDIA H100\" GPU based on the newest \"Hopper\" architecture is expected to be \"the world's largest and most powerful accelerator\" for high-performance computing (\"HPC\"). According to Nvidia, \"twenty H100 GPUs can sustain the equivalent of the entire world's internet traffic\", underscoring its continued prowess over next-generation computing and advantage over new offerings by industry peers, like the Intel Arc GPU (INTC).Professional visualization segment revenues are expected to remain strong in the first half of the fiscal year on early-stage Omniverse-related sales, with continued ramp-up in adoption buoyed by new feature roll-outs and broadened application use cases. Meanwhile, automotive segment sales will remain impacted in the first half of the fiscal year due to worsening supply chain bottlenecks from the recent COVID resurgence in China and ongoing war in Ukraine, which have constrained auto production output in the current year. But over the longer term, Nvidia's full-stack autonomous driving solution offerings (\"NVIDIA DRIVE\") will benefit from continued development and rapid adoption of self-driving technology.Nvidia Financial Forecast (Author)The Impact of Doubling Nvidia's Authorized Share CountAside from market-related headwinds, the latest company-specific challenge to the Nvidia stock's performance is the company's request for shareholder approval on doubling its current authorized share count. Nvidia outlined in its most recent Form PRE 14A filing to the SEC on April 8th that it is \"seeking approval of an amendment to [the] Restated Certificate of Incorporation to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock from 4 billion to 8 billion shares\" at the upcoming Annual Meeting of Stockholders in June.Unlike mega-cap peer Tesla's (TSLA) recent proposal to shareholders for a share count increase to facilitate a potential stock split in the near term, Nvidia has only provided a generic statement on the matter, citing the proposed share count amendment would enable the issuance of shares for \"general corporate purpose, including, but not limited to, stock dividends and/or stock splits, expanding [the] business through mergers and acquisitions, providing equity incentives to employees, officers or directors, and the raising of additional capital\".The announcement pushed the stock 4% lower right out of the gate during Monday's (April 11th) regular session, underscoring investors' fear for potential share dilution in the latter half of the year. But considering Nvidia's consistent growth track record and strong balance sheet, it is not one to act against shareholders' interests. The proposed share count increase is likely resulting from the need for greater flexibility in raising capital to fund the company's longer-term investments, especially considering Nvidia's expanding innovative technology pipeline, which facilitates further capitalization on growth opportunities ahead. This is also consistent with the proposed funding structure on the previous Arm deal that had fallen through, which consisted of $21.5 billion in Nvidia common stock and $12 billion in cash. Equity funding complements the company's currently robust balance sheet as well, while also providing partial insulation from rising debt costs as a result of proposed rate hikes by the Federal Reserve over the next two years as discussed in earlier sections.The other case is that the proposed increase to Nvidia's current authorized share count will be used to facilitate a potential stock split in the future, a favourable strategy that has regained popularity in recent months. While stock splits do not change a company's fundamentals, the strategy has historically dawned a rally for Nvidia, thanks to increased demand from retail investors who enjoy the ownership of whole shares but are averse to high prices. Considering Nvidia's accelerated business expansion and subsequent surge in valuation since its last stock split in 2021, a similar strategy could be in the works to attract greater market participation in the company's long-term growth prospects.Valuation Sensitivity AnalysisNvidia's valuation premium to its semiconductor peers have largely diminished following the extended rout through April. Based on industry-wide valuation multiple contractions observed over the past several months in response to the current shaky macroeconomic climate, Nvidia's last traded share price in the $210s zone on April 12th tracks well on par with its peers. Based on the semiconductor peer group's forward implied growth-valuation correlation plotted below, applying Nvidia's projected 38% sales growth for the current year, as discussed in earlier sections, would yield an exit multiple of about 24x.Semiconductor Industry Peer Comp (Author)Applying the 24x exit multiple alongside a 12.1% WACC determined based on Nvidia's current risk profile and capital structure to our discounted cash flow valuation analysis would result in a valuation of about $212 on a per-share basis.Nvidia Valuation Analysis (Author)However, considering Nvidia's historical valuation premium to peers, which is in our view reasonable given its market leadership (more than 80% GPU/AI processor market share) by wide margins against comparable peers, the stock will likely rebound to trade higher on proven growth resilience in the upcoming earnings season and once the market storm clears.Nvidia Valuation Sensitivity Analysis (Author)ConclusionConsidering the structural importance of Nvidia's role in enabling core digitization trends in the coming decade, the company's demand environment remains one of the strongest in the industry despite the near-term macro challenges. While we are expecting further volatility leading up to the Fed's policy decision on rate hikes and its balance sheet reduction coming May, amongst other unresolved matters like extended COVID and war disruptions on already-fragile supply chains, the Nvidia stock remains on a positive track towards delivering a strong showing over the longer term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080450126,"gmtCreate":1649908354693,"gmtModify":1676534604983,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If you're trading long term, this predicted drop will be a delicious opportunity&nbsp;","listText":"If you're trading long term, this predicted drop will be a delicious opportunity&nbsp;","text":"If you're trading long term, this predicted drop will be a delicious opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080450126","repostId":"2227614890","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2227614890","pubTimestamp":1649901116,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227614890?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-14 09:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: Risks Are Growing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227614890","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Chinese EV startup NIO (NYSE:NIO) surprised the market this week by announcing that it is forced to curtail EV production due to a worsening parts shortage that could, potentially, materially impair N","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese EV startup NIO (NYSE:NIO) surprised the market this week by announcing that it is forced to curtail EV production due to a worsening parts shortage that could, potentially, materially impair NIO&#39;s ability to double electric vehicle deliveries in 2022. In related news, NIO said that it is going to follow other EV companies and raise retail prices for all of its electric vehicle products.</p><p>I believe shares of NIO are still a long term buy based on commercial growth prospects in the Chinese EV industry, but my previous delivery estimate of 190,000 electric vehicles, due to NIO&#39;s production suspension, is no longer defensible. While I projected a strong delivery rebound for March due to the end of Chinese holidays, deliveries are likely going to drop off for NIO in the second-quarter.</p><h2><b>Updating my delivery projections for FY 2022 due to evolving production circumstances</b></h2><p>To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 outbreaks in a couple of Chinese provinces including Shanghai, authorities have enacted strict new disease control measures, shutting down factories and forcing people to stay at home. Strict lockdown measures have been put in place in Shanghai and Jilin (as well as other provinces), affecting NIO&#39;s supply chain partners and resulting in a suspension of NIO&#39;s electric vehicle production. NIO also warned of delayed deliveries to current customers because of these factory shutdowns.</p><p>NIO isn&#39;t the only EV company that has been affected by new COVID-19 shutdowns. Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) Shanghai Gigafactory has effectively been closed since the end of March, which is expected to take a heavy toll on Tesla&#39;s delivery volumes in April as well.</p><p>The secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, Cui Shudong, expects the recent COVID-19 to curtail auto production in China by 20%… which is a significant percentage and things could get worse short term. How long the shutdowns will last is of course uncertain at this point, but they are certainly not good news for NIO, which has struggled with temporary production setbacks ever since the pandemic began in early 2020.</p><p>NIO managed to deliver a material delivery rebound that saw its month over month delivery rate jump from a dismal 9.9% in February to 37.6% in March. The rebound in March deliveries was a key argument for me to remain bullish on a significant production rebound in FY 2022. But now, with the latest production setback hurting NIO, I see no other choice but to correct my 2022 delivery estimate that I touted in my previous work on NIO. More likely than not, NIO is going to see a steep drop-off in deliveries for the month of April and possibly even in the months after that. NIO&#39;s Q2&#39;22 delivery forecast is likely not going to be great, either.</p><p>I believed, before the latest round of factory shutdowns, that NIO would be able to pull off a hard rebound in EV deliveries in FY 2022. However, due to changing circumstances and new, significant uncertainty surrounding NIO&#39;s production ramp, I am lowering my FY 2022 delivery unit forecast from 190,000 electric vehicles to 160,000 electric vehicles. This marks a 16% downward adjustment for NIO&#39;s delivery volume this year, and I may further update my delivery estimates if factories of NIO&#39;s production partners remain shut longer.</p><p>With about 160,000 electric vehicle deliveries still possible in FY 2022, NIO would still generate about 75% year over year delivery growth. While the rate of delivery growth would still be impressive, it would mark a step-down from the FY 2021 year over year growth rate of 109%. Last year, NIO delivered 91,429 electric vehicles to customers.</p><h2><b>Retail price increases meant to stabilize vehicle margins due to soaring material costs</b></h2><p>NIO has been able to grow vehicle margins of its product lineup to 20.9% in Q4&#39;21, showing an improvement of 370 basis points compared to the year-earlier period. However, supply chain issues and inflation (rising material costs) are a threat to NIO&#39;s profit margins. To compensate for higher (battery) costs, NIO just announced on its app that it was raising retail prices across the board by 10%, effective May 10. A new NIO electric vehicle, starting next month, will become 10,000 Chinese Yuan or $1,572 more expensive. NIO&#39;s battery prices will also go up by between 1,480 and 1,680 Chinese Yuan.</p><p>By raising retail prices, NIO follows other EV startups such as XPeng (XPEV) which also increased prices last month, in part to compensate for higher material costs but also to offset cuts to EV subsidies. Li Auto (LI) also raised prices by 11,800 Chinese Yuan, which calculates to US$1,855.</p><p>NIO&#39;s price hike may lead to a short term dip in vehicle reservations, but I believe it will not impact NIO&#39;s long term potential for sustained revenue growth.</p><h2><b>NIO&#39;s #1 risk right now</b></h2><p>NIO&#39;s biggest risk is the supply chain. As risks to the supply chain are growing, NIO&#39;s ability to achieve 100% electric vehicle delivery growth in FY 2022 is also put at risk. NIO does not make full year delivery projections, but analysts are likely to refresh their delivery and revenue estimates for FY 2022 to account for the latest round of factory shutdowns... which could result in the stock revaluing lower.</p><h2>NIO&#39;s valuation and possibility of new lows</h2><p>I believe, as much as I like NIO, that the stock will fall to new lows as investors have to deal with materially increased production and delivery uncertainty this year. NIO&#39;s April delivery numbers are not going to be great either. While shares of NIO are still cheap based off of expected revenues, risks with NIO have undoubtedly increased this week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca1e0ee5a0699e16159a493aaada033e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h2><b>Final thoughts</b></h2><p>The implication of the current round of COVID-19 related shutdowns in China and NIO&#39;s production suspension is that I now expect NIO&#39;s delivery growth to materially decelerate compared to FY 2021… even if ET7 sedan deliveries, which began just last month, are set to make a positive contribution to NIO&#39;s total deliveries in FY 2022.</p><p>The announced 10% retail price hike is going to help NIO offset higher raw material and component costs which may help stabilize vehicle margins. However, I don&#39;t believe the price increase itself will result in a large number of reservation cancellations. Longer term, NIO is still attractive as a growth play on the Chinese EV market, but it may take longer for the stock to revalue higher!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Risks Are Growing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Risks Are Growing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-14 09:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501176-nio-risks-are-growing><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chinese EV startup NIO (NYSE:NIO) surprised the market this week by announcing that it is forced to curtail EV production due to a worsening parts shortage that could, potentially, materially impair ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501176-nio-risks-are-growing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4504":"桥水持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501176-nio-risks-are-growing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2227614890","content_text":"Chinese EV startup NIO (NYSE:NIO) surprised the market this week by announcing that it is forced to curtail EV production due to a worsening parts shortage that could, potentially, materially impair NIO's ability to double electric vehicle deliveries in 2022. In related news, NIO said that it is going to follow other EV companies and raise retail prices for all of its electric vehicle products.I believe shares of NIO are still a long term buy based on commercial growth prospects in the Chinese EV industry, but my previous delivery estimate of 190,000 electric vehicles, due to NIO's production suspension, is no longer defensible. While I projected a strong delivery rebound for March due to the end of Chinese holidays, deliveries are likely going to drop off for NIO in the second-quarter.Updating my delivery projections for FY 2022 due to evolving production circumstancesTo mitigate the spread of COVID-19 outbreaks in a couple of Chinese provinces including Shanghai, authorities have enacted strict new disease control measures, shutting down factories and forcing people to stay at home. Strict lockdown measures have been put in place in Shanghai and Jilin (as well as other provinces), affecting NIO's supply chain partners and resulting in a suspension of NIO's electric vehicle production. NIO also warned of delayed deliveries to current customers because of these factory shutdowns.NIO isn't the only EV company that has been affected by new COVID-19 shutdowns. Tesla's (TSLA) Shanghai Gigafactory has effectively been closed since the end of March, which is expected to take a heavy toll on Tesla's delivery volumes in April as well.The secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, Cui Shudong, expects the recent COVID-19 to curtail auto production in China by 20%… which is a significant percentage and things could get worse short term. How long the shutdowns will last is of course uncertain at this point, but they are certainly not good news for NIO, which has struggled with temporary production setbacks ever since the pandemic began in early 2020.NIO managed to deliver a material delivery rebound that saw its month over month delivery rate jump from a dismal 9.9% in February to 37.6% in March. The rebound in March deliveries was a key argument for me to remain bullish on a significant production rebound in FY 2022. But now, with the latest production setback hurting NIO, I see no other choice but to correct my 2022 delivery estimate that I touted in my previous work on NIO. More likely than not, NIO is going to see a steep drop-off in deliveries for the month of April and possibly even in the months after that. NIO's Q2'22 delivery forecast is likely not going to be great, either.I believed, before the latest round of factory shutdowns, that NIO would be able to pull off a hard rebound in EV deliveries in FY 2022. However, due to changing circumstances and new, significant uncertainty surrounding NIO's production ramp, I am lowering my FY 2022 delivery unit forecast from 190,000 electric vehicles to 160,000 electric vehicles. This marks a 16% downward adjustment for NIO's delivery volume this year, and I may further update my delivery estimates if factories of NIO's production partners remain shut longer.With about 160,000 electric vehicle deliveries still possible in FY 2022, NIO would still generate about 75% year over year delivery growth. While the rate of delivery growth would still be impressive, it would mark a step-down from the FY 2021 year over year growth rate of 109%. Last year, NIO delivered 91,429 electric vehicles to customers.Retail price increases meant to stabilize vehicle margins due to soaring material costsNIO has been able to grow vehicle margins of its product lineup to 20.9% in Q4'21, showing an improvement of 370 basis points compared to the year-earlier period. However, supply chain issues and inflation (rising material costs) are a threat to NIO's profit margins. To compensate for higher (battery) costs, NIO just announced on its app that it was raising retail prices across the board by 10%, effective May 10. A new NIO electric vehicle, starting next month, will become 10,000 Chinese Yuan or $1,572 more expensive. NIO's battery prices will also go up by between 1,480 and 1,680 Chinese Yuan.By raising retail prices, NIO follows other EV startups such as XPeng (XPEV) which also increased prices last month, in part to compensate for higher material costs but also to offset cuts to EV subsidies. Li Auto (LI) also raised prices by 11,800 Chinese Yuan, which calculates to US$1,855.NIO's price hike may lead to a short term dip in vehicle reservations, but I believe it will not impact NIO's long term potential for sustained revenue growth.NIO's #1 risk right nowNIO's biggest risk is the supply chain. As risks to the supply chain are growing, NIO's ability to achieve 100% electric vehicle delivery growth in FY 2022 is also put at risk. NIO does not make full year delivery projections, but analysts are likely to refresh their delivery and revenue estimates for FY 2022 to account for the latest round of factory shutdowns... which could result in the stock revaluing lower.NIO's valuation and possibility of new lowsI believe, as much as I like NIO, that the stock will fall to new lows as investors have to deal with materially increased production and delivery uncertainty this year. NIO's April delivery numbers are not going to be great either. While shares of NIO are still cheap based off of expected revenues, risks with NIO have undoubtedly increased this week.Data by YChartsFinal thoughtsThe implication of the current round of COVID-19 related shutdowns in China and NIO's production suspension is that I now expect NIO's delivery growth to materially decelerate compared to FY 2021… even if ET7 sedan deliveries, which began just last month, are set to make a positive contribution to NIO's total deliveries in FY 2022.The announced 10% retail price hike is going to help NIO offset higher raw material and component costs which may help stabilize vehicle margins. However, I don't believe the price increase itself will result in a large number of reservation cancellations. Longer term, NIO is still attractive as a growth play on the Chinese EV market, but it may take longer for the stock to revalue higher!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"content":"Well, analysts project low 200s, I'd be happy to get 150, which is still 750% up on an average price of 20, over ten years I'd be happy with that if I chucked it there and forgot about it","text":"Well, analysts project low 200s, I'd be happy to get 150, which is still 750% up on an average price of 20, over ten years I'd be happy with that if I chucked it there and forgot about it","html":"Well, analysts project low 200s, I'd be happy to get 150, which is still 750% up on an average price of 20, over ten years I'd be happy with that if I chucked it there and forgot about it"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017110060,"gmtCreate":1649753988150,"gmtModify":1676534565440,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to&nbsp;earn some moolas&nbsp;","listText":"Time to&nbsp;earn some moolas&nbsp;","text":"Time to earn some moolas","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017110060","repostId":"9016476123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9016476123,"gmtCreate":1649229403658,"gmtModify":1676534474180,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","listText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","text":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please click here to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b435c0d10e0e89ad3e06b7bbd04830","width":"2251","height":"1334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff9640a9df2f24446e07b7a9b658cb4b","width":"1200","height":"630"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/795038848b7c7b1d7dda27d92b580946","width":"1656","height":"948"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016476123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013163042,"gmtCreate":1648691337647,"gmtModify":1676534380604,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good article for the short term of the stock, definitely one to watch for the next decade or so","listText":"Good article for the short term of the stock, definitely one to watch for the next decade or so","text":"Good article for the short term of the stock, definitely one to watch for the next decade or so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013163042","repostId":"1108743613","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108743613","pubTimestamp":1648631503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108743613?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Nvidia Stock Retest The Highs, The Lows or Both?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108743613","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Nvidia stock has been on a tear, but is that rally about to slow? Let's look at the charts.Nvidia st","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia stock has been on a tear, but is that rally about to slow? Let&#39;s look at the charts.</p><p>Nvidia stock has been on a tear lately. While it hasn’t put together a 10-day rally like Apple, Nvidia’s 40% rally off this month’s low is quite impressive.</p><p>In a way though, it’s not surprising. We’re talking about a leading tech juggernaut with strong growth and impressive margins and cash flow. Furthermore, we’re talking about a company that is feeding into multiple secular growth themes within the tech sector.</p><p>Nvidia caters to the datacenter, cloud computing, supercomputing, artificial intelligence and machine learning, robotics, drones, automotive and autonomous driving, gaming, graphics, and the metaverse.</p><p><i>Phew.</i>That’s a lot of end markets, which all have one thing in common: Growth.</p><p>It’s one reason why we’ve seen Advanced Micro Devices trade so well over the past few years.</p><p>With the recent rally, it has investors wondering if the stock can retest its all-time highs, which were hit in November. On the flip side, it has investors worrying if it will retest the lows.</p><p><b>Trading Nvidia Stock</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0149e6dd921f6a301965931facdffc92\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"774\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Daily chart of Nvidia stock.</span></p><p>There’s no way to know which will occur. For all we know, it could be both. However, we also know that over the long term, Nvidia stock is a winner.</p><p>Nvidia is in sort of a gray area when it comes to tech. That’s because it’s a well-established, blue-chip name, but also considered by many to be a growth stock.</p><p>The former group — occupied by companies like Apple, Alphabet, etc. — has held up pretty well this year, while hyper growth stocks have been killed. From the highs, Nvidia stock came down about 40%.</p><p>However, unlike many growth names that are still trapped below the 50-day, Nvidia stock burst above that measure several weeks ago. In fact, Nvidia is above all of its major moving averages.</p><p>Now though, we’re starting to see shares stall. The stock couldn’t quite tag the 61.8% retracement, so that’s certainly a level I’ll be keeping an eye on this week.</p><p>Beyond that would open the door to $300-plus — and specifically the first-quarter high near $307 — followed $315 to $318. Above that and the all-time high is technically within reach.</p><p>On the downside, the $270 area and the rising 10-day are the most immediate short-term support levels to watch. Below them and I think we may be looking at a test of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages currently near $240 to $245.</p><p>If Nvidia stock breaks below $238 (and without getting too complicated, that’s roughly the 61.8% retracement of the current rally), then that’s when worries will really dial up about a retest of the lows at $206.50.</p><p>It’s impossible to know what the outcome here will be, but at least there is a roadmap to help navigate it in the short and intermediate term.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Nvidia Stock Retest The Highs, The Lows or Both?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Nvidia Stock Retest The Highs, The Lows or Both?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-30 17:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-nvidia-nvda-stock-back-to-its-highs-or-lows><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia stock has been on a tear, but is that rally about to slow? Let's look at the charts.Nvidia stock has been on a tear lately. While it hasn’t put together a 10-day rally like Apple, Nvidia’s 40% ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-nvidia-nvda-stock-back-to-its-highs-or-lows\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-nvidia-nvda-stock-back-to-its-highs-or-lows","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108743613","content_text":"Nvidia stock has been on a tear, but is that rally about to slow? Let's look at the charts.Nvidia stock has been on a tear lately. While it hasn’t put together a 10-day rally like Apple, Nvidia’s 40% rally off this month’s low is quite impressive.In a way though, it’s not surprising. We’re talking about a leading tech juggernaut with strong growth and impressive margins and cash flow. Furthermore, we’re talking about a company that is feeding into multiple secular growth themes within the tech sector.Nvidia caters to the datacenter, cloud computing, supercomputing, artificial intelligence and machine learning, robotics, drones, automotive and autonomous driving, gaming, graphics, and the metaverse.Phew.That’s a lot of end markets, which all have one thing in common: Growth.It’s one reason why we’ve seen Advanced Micro Devices trade so well over the past few years.With the recent rally, it has investors wondering if the stock can retest its all-time highs, which were hit in November. On the flip side, it has investors worrying if it will retest the lows.Trading Nvidia StockDaily chart of Nvidia stock.There’s no way to know which will occur. For all we know, it could be both. However, we also know that over the long term, Nvidia stock is a winner.Nvidia is in sort of a gray area when it comes to tech. That’s because it’s a well-established, blue-chip name, but also considered by many to be a growth stock.The former group — occupied by companies like Apple, Alphabet, etc. — has held up pretty well this year, while hyper growth stocks have been killed. From the highs, Nvidia stock came down about 40%.However, unlike many growth names that are still trapped below the 50-day, Nvidia stock burst above that measure several weeks ago. In fact, Nvidia is above all of its major moving averages.Now though, we’re starting to see shares stall. The stock couldn’t quite tag the 61.8% retracement, so that’s certainly a level I’ll be keeping an eye on this week.Beyond that would open the door to $300-plus — and specifically the first-quarter high near $307 — followed $315 to $318. Above that and the all-time high is technically within reach.On the downside, the $270 area and the rising 10-day are the most immediate short-term support levels to watch. Below them and I think we may be looking at a test of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages currently near $240 to $245.If Nvidia stock breaks below $238 (and without getting too complicated, that’s roughly the 61.8% retracement of the current rally), then that’s when worries will really dial up about a retest of the lows at $206.50.It’s impossible to know what the outcome here will be, but at least there is a roadmap to help navigate it in the short and intermediate term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812564289,"gmtCreate":1630595379241,"gmtModify":1676530352549,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article","listText":"Great article","text":"Great article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812564289","repostId":"1129827670","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129827670","pubTimestamp":1630308595,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129827670?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Happy Birthday Warren Buffett: What makes him so famous and successful","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129827670","media":"moneycontrol","summary":"The world’s most famous nonagenarian turns 91 today and it’s always a good time to reflect on what m","content":"<p>The world’s most famous nonagenarian&nbsp;turns 91 today and it’s always a good time to reflect on what makes him as famous (or successful or rich) as he is – of course, several books (The Warren Buffett Way, by Robert G. Hagstrom, is one that I recommend) have been written on this topic but I am going to try to cover a few points at a high level.</p>\n<p><b>Simple and direct</b></p>\n<p>“The one easy way to become worth 50 percent more than you are now — at least — is to hone your communication skills — both written and verbal… if you can’t communicate, it’s like winking at a girl in the dark — nothing happens. You can have all the brainpower in the world, but you have to be able to transmit it.”</p>\n<p>Simple and direct – I think these are the most important tenants of Buffett’s communication style. &nbsp;It sounds easy to emulate, but it’s really not because most often our parents, schools, colleges, and workplaces push us in the opposite direction.</p>\n<p>The importance of communication to Buffett can be seen from the significance he places on a public speaking course he took at Dale Carnegie (a workplace training and professional skills development organization) when he was younger.</p>\n<p>“I actually have the diploma in the office. And I don’t have my diploma from college, I don’t have my diploma from graduate school, but I have got my Dale Carnegie diploma there because it changed my life,”.</p>\n<p><b>A robust framework and the resolve to stick to it:</b></p>\n<p>Buffett, much like his mentor i.e., Benjamin Graham, possesses the ability to cut through the fluff and think straight.</p>\n<p>The reason why this is probably the most important lesson is that the nature of investing is such that (i) any long-term active investor will witness many periods (sometimes, years) of underperformance, and (ii) every portfolio will have its share of losers. Both apply to Buffett as well.</p>\n<p>Instead of falling prey to herd mentality and letting Mr. Market’s prevalent emotional state bias his decision making, he is able to view businesses rationally.</p>\n<p>Berkshire’s stock performance has lagged the benchmark in numerous years.</p>\n<p>However, a “sound intellectual framework” focused on company fundamentals and the discipline to stick to has meant that the good years, which saw massive outperformance, more than made up for the bad ones.</p>\n<p>Buffett has had his share of lemons too. In fact, as always, in the letter he openly admits that he made a big mistake on a $37 billion investment in Precision Castparts (PCC). He famously swore-off investing in airline stocks in the 1990s and early 2000s, referring to himself as an “air-o-holic.” This addiction seems to have reared its ugly head again, because in the throes of the pandemic Berkshire booked a loss on another set of airline stocks in 2020.</p>\n<p>Again, for every bad airline investment, Buffett has made famously huge windfalls in the likes of Coca Cola, American Express or Apple. At the end of the day, every investor will make mistakes, the key is to remain undeterred if you have a sound system in place.</p>\n<p>Remember, since 1965, Berkshire Hathaway’s shares have returned ~20% annually compared to the ~10% for the benchmark, the S&amp;P 500. In cumulative terms, that is a staggering ~28,00,000% rise vs. ~23,500% for the S&amp;P!</p>\n<p><b>Owner mindset</b></p>\n<p>“….That action increased your ownership in all of Berkshire’s businesses by 5.2% without requiring you to so much as touch your wallet. Following criteria Charlie and I have long recommended, we made those purchases because we believed they would both enhance the intrinsic value per share for continuing shareholders.”</p>\n<p>The quality of a company’s business is reflected in metrics like growth both in revenue and retained earnings, return on capital, among others. Of course, the price one pays in relation to these metrics is an important factor, but periodic fluctuations in price should not matter much to a fundamentals-focused investor.</p>\n<p>Buffett has often emphasized that Berkshire’s portfolio is “a collection of businesses” not just tickers on a screen.</p>\n<p>In the same vein, Buffett highlights Berkshire’s property/casualty insurance operations, BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy, among many other privately owned businesses that don’t have daily stock prices. Hence, they probably don’t receive as much attention as Berkshire’s investment portfolio of “marketable stocks”.</p>\n<p>However, it is clear from the letter that Berkshire remains focused on investing behind and growing these “family jewels”.</p>\n<p>The same philosophy is behind Berkshire’s practice of regularly buying back its own stock. Just in 2020, it repurchased $25 billion worth of its shares. Buffett again chooses to focus his shareholders’ attention on the underlying effect of the action.</p>\n<p><b>Trust and decentralization</b></p>\n<p>Indian promoters are often accused of holding on to control and not delegating enough to professional managers. The Berkshire Hathaway Empire is built on the exact opposite – decentralization.</p>\n<p>Over the years as it has expanded into a giant conglomerate, Buffett has made sure that its various subsidiaries (in many of which they own 100% stake) are autonomous units with near complete decision-making powers.</p>\n<p>Buffett takes minutes to size people up and deals are often closed on an initial phone call. If Buffett has any doubt regarding sincerity or trustworthiness of a potential associate, he is known to promptly walk away.</p>\n<p>A comment by Jim Weber, head of Berkshire unit Brooks Running Company, captures this approach: “I have never been given so much autonomy in my long business career, and have never felt so accountable and responsible.”</p>\n<p>In a way, trust is at the heart of Berkshire Hathaway’s and Buffett’s business model.</p>\n<p><b>Circle of competence</b></p>\n<p>“What an investor need is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word “selected”: You don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many.</p>\n<p>You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”</p>\n<p>Buffett’s ability to live within his circle of competence means that he is often able to make important “informed” decisions about companies and industries; being a prodigious reader helps. He is able to avoid businesses he doesn’t understand, and hence doesn’t fall prey to trend-based investing.</p>\n<p>He has pointed out how none of the top 20 companies by market cap in 1989 were in the top 20 today. He also highlighted that even in a booming industry over the last century, automobiles, there were over 2000 defunct companies.</p>\n<p>By 2009, there were just three left, of which two had been rescued from bankruptcy by the US government.</p>\n<p>“…there was a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what’s going to be a wonderful industry in the future.”</p>\n<p>To end this piece, I want to leave you with words from the man himself that in a way capture the inspiration for starting my own investment firm:</p>\n<p>“To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. What’s needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.”.</p>","source":"lsy1630308682275","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Happy Birthday Warren Buffett: What makes him so famous and successful</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHappy Birthday Warren Buffett: What makes him so famous and successful\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-30 15:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/happy-birthday-warren-buffett-what-makes-him-so-famous-and-successful-7400621.html><strong>moneycontrol</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The world’s most famous nonagenarian turns 91 today and it’s always a good time to reflect on what makes him as famous (or successful or rich) as he is – of course, several books (The Warren Buffett ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/happy-birthday-warren-buffett-what-makes-him-so-famous-and-successful-7400621.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/happy-birthday-warren-buffett-what-makes-him-so-famous-and-successful-7400621.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129827670","content_text":"The world’s most famous nonagenarian turns 91 today and it’s always a good time to reflect on what makes him as famous (or successful or rich) as he is – of course, several books (The Warren Buffett Way, by Robert G. Hagstrom, is one that I recommend) have been written on this topic but I am going to try to cover a few points at a high level.\nSimple and direct\n“The one easy way to become worth 50 percent more than you are now — at least — is to hone your communication skills — both written and verbal… if you can’t communicate, it’s like winking at a girl in the dark — nothing happens. You can have all the brainpower in the world, but you have to be able to transmit it.”\nSimple and direct – I think these are the most important tenants of Buffett’s communication style.  It sounds easy to emulate, but it’s really not because most often our parents, schools, colleges, and workplaces push us in the opposite direction.\nThe importance of communication to Buffett can be seen from the significance he places on a public speaking course he took at Dale Carnegie (a workplace training and professional skills development organization) when he was younger.\n“I actually have the diploma in the office. And I don’t have my diploma from college, I don’t have my diploma from graduate school, but I have got my Dale Carnegie diploma there because it changed my life,”.\nA robust framework and the resolve to stick to it:\nBuffett, much like his mentor i.e., Benjamin Graham, possesses the ability to cut through the fluff and think straight.\nThe reason why this is probably the most important lesson is that the nature of investing is such that (i) any long-term active investor will witness many periods (sometimes, years) of underperformance, and (ii) every portfolio will have its share of losers. Both apply to Buffett as well.\nInstead of falling prey to herd mentality and letting Mr. Market’s prevalent emotional state bias his decision making, he is able to view businesses rationally.\nBerkshire’s stock performance has lagged the benchmark in numerous years.\nHowever, a “sound intellectual framework” focused on company fundamentals and the discipline to stick to has meant that the good years, which saw massive outperformance, more than made up for the bad ones.\nBuffett has had his share of lemons too. In fact, as always, in the letter he openly admits that he made a big mistake on a $37 billion investment in Precision Castparts (PCC). He famously swore-off investing in airline stocks in the 1990s and early 2000s, referring to himself as an “air-o-holic.” This addiction seems to have reared its ugly head again, because in the throes of the pandemic Berkshire booked a loss on another set of airline stocks in 2020.\nAgain, for every bad airline investment, Buffett has made famously huge windfalls in the likes of Coca Cola, American Express or Apple. At the end of the day, every investor will make mistakes, the key is to remain undeterred if you have a sound system in place.\nRemember, since 1965, Berkshire Hathaway’s shares have returned ~20% annually compared to the ~10% for the benchmark, the S&P 500. In cumulative terms, that is a staggering ~28,00,000% rise vs. ~23,500% for the S&P!\nOwner mindset\n“….That action increased your ownership in all of Berkshire’s businesses by 5.2% without requiring you to so much as touch your wallet. Following criteria Charlie and I have long recommended, we made those purchases because we believed they would both enhance the intrinsic value per share for continuing shareholders.”\nThe quality of a company’s business is reflected in metrics like growth both in revenue and retained earnings, return on capital, among others. Of course, the price one pays in relation to these metrics is an important factor, but periodic fluctuations in price should not matter much to a fundamentals-focused investor.\nBuffett has often emphasized that Berkshire’s portfolio is “a collection of businesses” not just tickers on a screen.\nIn the same vein, Buffett highlights Berkshire’s property/casualty insurance operations, BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy, among many other privately owned businesses that don’t have daily stock prices. Hence, they probably don’t receive as much attention as Berkshire’s investment portfolio of “marketable stocks”.\nHowever, it is clear from the letter that Berkshire remains focused on investing behind and growing these “family jewels”.\nThe same philosophy is behind Berkshire’s practice of regularly buying back its own stock. Just in 2020, it repurchased $25 billion worth of its shares. Buffett again chooses to focus his shareholders’ attention on the underlying effect of the action.\nTrust and decentralization\nIndian promoters are often accused of holding on to control and not delegating enough to professional managers. The Berkshire Hathaway Empire is built on the exact opposite – decentralization.\nOver the years as it has expanded into a giant conglomerate, Buffett has made sure that its various subsidiaries (in many of which they own 100% stake) are autonomous units with near complete decision-making powers.\nBuffett takes minutes to size people up and deals are often closed on an initial phone call. If Buffett has any doubt regarding sincerity or trustworthiness of a potential associate, he is known to promptly walk away.\nA comment by Jim Weber, head of Berkshire unit Brooks Running Company, captures this approach: “I have never been given so much autonomy in my long business career, and have never felt so accountable and responsible.”\nIn a way, trust is at the heart of Berkshire Hathaway’s and Buffett’s business model.\nCircle of competence\n“What an investor need is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word “selected”: You don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many.\nYou only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”\nBuffett’s ability to live within his circle of competence means that he is often able to make important “informed” decisions about companies and industries; being a prodigious reader helps. He is able to avoid businesses he doesn’t understand, and hence doesn’t fall prey to trend-based investing.\nHe has pointed out how none of the top 20 companies by market cap in 1989 were in the top 20 today. He also highlighted that even in a booming industry over the last century, automobiles, there were over 2000 defunct companies.\nBy 2009, there were just three left, of which two had been rescued from bankruptcy by the US government.\n“…there was a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what’s going to be a wonderful industry in the future.”\nTo end this piece, I want to leave you with words from the man himself that in a way capture the inspiration for starting my own investment firm:\n“To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. What’s needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.”.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813382067,"gmtCreate":1630131941359,"gmtModify":1676530232673,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Excellent article","listText":"Excellent article","text":"Excellent article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813382067","repostId":"1149850459","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149850459","pubTimestamp":1630048146,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149850459?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-27 15:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Not every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149850459","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nThe stock mar","content":"<p>Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d5fb452d9db7f672a2a9eec51862eb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>The stock market is in a bubble; this is not a secret. Most investors are ignoring it and just infatuated with the ride. They are playing&nbsp;“Fool’s Gambit” —waiting for a greater fool to buy their overvalued stock from them. And why not, greater fools have been showing up in droves for years. Low interest rates inflated the prices of all assets, forcing everyone to take greater and greater risks.</p>\n<p>Then there is pure, unadulterated greed. This market bubble is filled with this “get rich fast” attitude and the fear of missing out; all bubbles are. This time the market has been further deformed by social media, which seems like an enormous amplifier and arguably prolonger of that behavior, bringing what seems an endless supply of incremental buyers (bigger fools).</p>\n<p><b>Market timer’s gambit</b></p>\n<p>Rational people not drunk on greed, who are fine with getting rich slowly, may want to avoid this market altogether.&nbsp; They may play&nbsp;“Market Timer’s Gambit.” Their argument (on the surface) is logical. It goes like this: “I am going to stay on the sidelines for now and will go in after the market dips”.</p>\n<p>There are two problems with this strategy. First, market irrationality can last a long time. Second, though it sounds good in theory, in practice it is difficult to execute.</p>\n<p>Here is an example: Let’s say you went 100% in cash waiting for the market to correct. You waited for a long time and then the market declines 10%. You feel slightly vindicated, but the market really just settled to where it was a few months ago. You have a decision to make: Get in or wait? You are of course prudent, and the market is declining, so you decide to wait.</p>\n<p>The market falls another 10%. You feel a bit more vindicated. Now you feel rewarded for your patience and for the last few years of return you’ve missed out on. But your gut tells you if the market declined 20% and it can go down lower. You wait.</p>\n<p>You were right. The market declines another 10%. Economic news is ugly. The market decline may send the economy into a recession. Or the economy is already in a recession. Now you are worried. You decide to wait.</p>\n<p>The market declines&nbsp;another&nbsp;10%. This cash now feels so dear you don’t want to part with it. You feel like you’ve got this figured out. You tell yourself you’ll invest when the news gets better.</p>\n<p>The news is not getting better. But a strange thing happens. The market has a few strong days. Commentators call them a “dead cat bounce,” expecting further declines. These few strong days are followed by a few more.&nbsp; Suddenly the market has retraced the last 20% of the decline. You feel bad that you didn’t invest two weeks ago (at the now “obvious”) bottom.</p>\n<p>You get the point. Once you are completely out of the market, it is incredibly difficult psychologically to dive back in. I’ve met quite a few people that have stayed out of the market since 2000 and are still waiting for their chance to get in. Just imagine the psychological rollercoaster they went through and the returns they left on the table.</p>\n<p>Even if you got the market timing right once, putting it into a repeatable process is impossible. In addition to getting the timing of the economy right, you have to time the stock market response to the economy. I know many people who timed the market successfully once; I don’t know any who’ve done it twice.</p>\n<p><b>One stock at a time</b></p>\n<p>Investing in the stock market doesn’t need to reside in the extremes of the Fool’s Gambit or the Market Timer’s Gambit. There is a different game available:&nbsp;“One Stock at a Time.”</p>\n<p>Even in this insanely overvalued market not all stocks are overvalued and in search of a greater fool. Armed with patience, a long-term time horizon and our time-tested value investing process, look for high-quality companies, run by great management, that are significantly undervalued (i.e., have a margin of safety).</p>\n<p>This process is not fast and furious and won’t get you rich quickly. It requires mundane work and turning over a lot of rocks. At our firm, we read company financial filings, talk to management, competitors, build our own financial models, debate these investments among ourselves and with our global network of investors.</p>\n<p>Investors can choose from tens of thousands of stocks globally. At our firm, we need only 20 to 30. When we cannot find enough stocks that meet our stringent investment criteria our cash balances go up, then decline as we find new stocks. We don’t time the market; we value individual stocks, buying when they are cheap and selling when they are dear.</p>\n<p>To sum it up: The U.S. stock market today is a dollar bill trading for close to $2 or more. Many stocks are $1 changing hands for $4, $6, $20. But&nbsp;we don’t own the market; instead we have assembled a portfolio of companies priced attractively at 30- to 60-cents on the dollar —&nbsp;one stock at a time.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Not every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNot every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-27 15:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-every-stock-is-in-a-bubble-heres-how-to-find-todays-bargains-and-tomorrows-winners-11630016489?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nThe stock market is in a bubble; this is not a secret. Most investors are ignoring it and just infatuated with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-every-stock-is-in-a-bubble-heres-how-to-find-todays-bargains-and-tomorrows-winners-11630016489?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-every-stock-is-in-a-bubble-heres-how-to-find-todays-bargains-and-tomorrows-winners-11630016489?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149850459","content_text":"Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nThe stock market is in a bubble; this is not a secret. Most investors are ignoring it and just infatuated with the ride. They are playing “Fool’s Gambit” —waiting for a greater fool to buy their overvalued stock from them. And why not, greater fools have been showing up in droves for years. Low interest rates inflated the prices of all assets, forcing everyone to take greater and greater risks.\nThen there is pure, unadulterated greed. This market bubble is filled with this “get rich fast” attitude and the fear of missing out; all bubbles are. This time the market has been further deformed by social media, which seems like an enormous amplifier and arguably prolonger of that behavior, bringing what seems an endless supply of incremental buyers (bigger fools).\nMarket timer’s gambit\nRational people not drunk on greed, who are fine with getting rich slowly, may want to avoid this market altogether.  They may play “Market Timer’s Gambit.” Their argument (on the surface) is logical. It goes like this: “I am going to stay on the sidelines for now and will go in after the market dips”.\nThere are two problems with this strategy. First, market irrationality can last a long time. Second, though it sounds good in theory, in practice it is difficult to execute.\nHere is an example: Let’s say you went 100% in cash waiting for the market to correct. You waited for a long time and then the market declines 10%. You feel slightly vindicated, but the market really just settled to where it was a few months ago. You have a decision to make: Get in or wait? You are of course prudent, and the market is declining, so you decide to wait.\nThe market falls another 10%. You feel a bit more vindicated. Now you feel rewarded for your patience and for the last few years of return you’ve missed out on. But your gut tells you if the market declined 20% and it can go down lower. You wait.\nYou were right. The market declines another 10%. Economic news is ugly. The market decline may send the economy into a recession. Or the economy is already in a recession. Now you are worried. You decide to wait.\nThe market declines another 10%. This cash now feels so dear you don’t want to part with it. You feel like you’ve got this figured out. You tell yourself you’ll invest when the news gets better.\nThe news is not getting better. But a strange thing happens. The market has a few strong days. Commentators call them a “dead cat bounce,” expecting further declines. These few strong days are followed by a few more.  Suddenly the market has retraced the last 20% of the decline. You feel bad that you didn’t invest two weeks ago (at the now “obvious”) bottom.\nYou get the point. Once you are completely out of the market, it is incredibly difficult psychologically to dive back in. I’ve met quite a few people that have stayed out of the market since 2000 and are still waiting for their chance to get in. Just imagine the psychological rollercoaster they went through and the returns they left on the table.\nEven if you got the market timing right once, putting it into a repeatable process is impossible. In addition to getting the timing of the economy right, you have to time the stock market response to the economy. I know many people who timed the market successfully once; I don’t know any who’ve done it twice.\nOne stock at a time\nInvesting in the stock market doesn’t need to reside in the extremes of the Fool’s Gambit or the Market Timer’s Gambit. There is a different game available: “One Stock at a Time.”\nEven in this insanely overvalued market not all stocks are overvalued and in search of a greater fool. Armed with patience, a long-term time horizon and our time-tested value investing process, look for high-quality companies, run by great management, that are significantly undervalued (i.e., have a margin of safety).\nThis process is not fast and furious and won’t get you rich quickly. It requires mundane work and turning over a lot of rocks. At our firm, we read company financial filings, talk to management, competitors, build our own financial models, debate these investments among ourselves and with our global network of investors.\nInvestors can choose from tens of thousands of stocks globally. At our firm, we need only 20 to 30. When we cannot find enough stocks that meet our stringent investment criteria our cash balances go up, then decline as we find new stocks. We don’t time the market; we value individual stocks, buying when they are cheap and selling when they are dear.\nTo sum it up: The U.S. stock market today is a dollar bill trading for close to $2 or more. Many stocks are $1 changing hands for $4, $6, $20. But we don’t own the market; instead we have assembled a portfolio of companies priced attractively at 30- to 60-cents on the dollar — one stock at a time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9043479198,"gmtCreate":1655956829314,"gmtModify":1676535740327,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anything below $125 is a steal, even more so&nbsp;$117 hahaha","listText":"Anything below $125 is a steal, even more so&nbsp;$117 hahaha","text":"Anything below $125 is a steal, even more so $117 hahaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043479198","repostId":"1100864406","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100864406","pubTimestamp":1655954846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100864406?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-23 11:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Bites Keep Coming For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100864406","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple initially created support at $150.With that support breaking, it created support at $13","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Apple initially created support at $150.</li><li>With that support breaking, it created support at $132.</li><li>We will examine the latest break below $132 in this article.</li></ul><p>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been in a long term uptrend which appears to have come to an end during late April 2022. It then saw a clear lower low on a macro timeframe, contributed to by rising inflation globally, coupled with supply chain issues. This article covers Apple&#39;s break of its previous low and how it can potentially land at $117 next.</p><p>Apple is in a three wave structure where, if wave three numerically replicates wave one, it will land at $117. Apple topped out in this current structure at $182. Dropping to $150 to form the now wave one downwards before seeing an attempt to break above $182 but ultimately failing at the $179 region. This can now be interpreted as the macro wave two, with a drop below $150 confirming the wave three. So far, Apple has bottomed in the current pattern at $132.</p><p>Firstly we can look at the monthly chart to identify the three macro waves in play. Then, we move to the weekly chart to examine the latest break down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bac91fa72b55443353e48bf8ac238da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"981\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple monthly</p><p>In the monthly chart above, we can see wave one $182-$150. Wave two, $150-$179. A clear break below $150 technically commences the wave three. We can also see the initial attempt at creating support at $132. Now we can move to the weekly structure to examine this latest lower low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da3354013f3f78c61665e4028c40e177\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1019\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple weekly</p><p>Here, it is possible to identify the macro wave two high at $179 in more detail, with a clear drop to the $132 region before finding a bullish weekly candle. In order for a three wave pattern to form, ideally a bullish candle is needed in a bearish set up. This is the signal that confirms the mismatch between buyers and sellers.</p><p>In a bullish pattern, the opposite is needed, a bearish rejection which then would confirm the mismatch in an upward structure. This break of $132 is specifically relevant, as with the bullish candle formation it technically creates an internal wave inside the macro chart that can see Apple potentially go lower again. However, concentrating on the monthly chart, it is clear Apple has broken lower again from its previous support.</p><p>If wave three numerically copies wave one, Apple will land at $117, where I will be then looking for three wave patterns lending to its next immediate direction. I would expect Apple to complete its third wave and land at target in the next 90-120 days. An immediate move above $153, which is the high of the bullish weekly candle, would lower the probability of the third wave completing and a break above $182 before touching $117, rendering the third wave a fail. Given the advances Apple has made downwards since its break of $150, I have listed a strong sell for this equity.</p><p><b>About the Three Wave Theory</b></p><p>The three wave theory was designed to be able to identify exact probable price action of a financial instrument. A financial market cannot navigate it&#39;s way significantly higher or lower without making waves. Waves are essentially a mismatch between buyers and sellers and print a picture of a probable direction and target for a financial instrument. When waves one and two have been formed, it is the point of higher high/lower low that gives the technical indication of the future direction. A wave one will continue from a low to a high point before it finds significant enough rejection to then form the wave two. When a third wave breaks into a higher high/lower low the only probable numerical target bearing available on a financial chart is the equivalent of the wave one low to high point. It is highly probable that the wave three will look to numerically replicate wave one before it makes its future directional decision. It may continue past its third wave target but it is only the wave one evidence that a price was able to continue before rejection that is available to look to as a probable target for a third wave.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Bites Keep Coming For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Bites Keep Coming For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-23 11:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519684-the-bites-keep-coming-for-apple?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A32><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple initially created support at $150.With that support breaking, it created support at $132.We will examine the latest break below $132 in this article.Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been in a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519684-the-bites-keep-coming-for-apple?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A32\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519684-the-bites-keep-coming-for-apple?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A32","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100864406","content_text":"SummaryApple initially created support at $150.With that support breaking, it created support at $132.We will examine the latest break below $132 in this article.Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been in a long term uptrend which appears to have come to an end during late April 2022. It then saw a clear lower low on a macro timeframe, contributed to by rising inflation globally, coupled with supply chain issues. This article covers Apple's break of its previous low and how it can potentially land at $117 next.Apple is in a three wave structure where, if wave three numerically replicates wave one, it will land at $117. Apple topped out in this current structure at $182. Dropping to $150 to form the now wave one downwards before seeing an attempt to break above $182 but ultimately failing at the $179 region. This can now be interpreted as the macro wave two, with a drop below $150 confirming the wave three. So far, Apple has bottomed in the current pattern at $132.Firstly we can look at the monthly chart to identify the three macro waves in play. Then, we move to the weekly chart to examine the latest break down.Apple monthlyIn the monthly chart above, we can see wave one $182-$150. Wave two, $150-$179. A clear break below $150 technically commences the wave three. We can also see the initial attempt at creating support at $132. Now we can move to the weekly structure to examine this latest lower low.Apple weeklyHere, it is possible to identify the macro wave two high at $179 in more detail, with a clear drop to the $132 region before finding a bullish weekly candle. In order for a three wave pattern to form, ideally a bullish candle is needed in a bearish set up. This is the signal that confirms the mismatch between buyers and sellers.In a bullish pattern, the opposite is needed, a bearish rejection which then would confirm the mismatch in an upward structure. This break of $132 is specifically relevant, as with the bullish candle formation it technically creates an internal wave inside the macro chart that can see Apple potentially go lower again. However, concentrating on the monthly chart, it is clear Apple has broken lower again from its previous support.If wave three numerically copies wave one, Apple will land at $117, where I will be then looking for three wave patterns lending to its next immediate direction. I would expect Apple to complete its third wave and land at target in the next 90-120 days. An immediate move above $153, which is the high of the bullish weekly candle, would lower the probability of the third wave completing and a break above $182 before touching $117, rendering the third wave a fail. Given the advances Apple has made downwards since its break of $150, I have listed a strong sell for this equity.About the Three Wave TheoryThe three wave theory was designed to be able to identify exact probable price action of a financial instrument. A financial market cannot navigate it's way significantly higher or lower without making waves. Waves are essentially a mismatch between buyers and sellers and print a picture of a probable direction and target for a financial instrument. When waves one and two have been formed, it is the point of higher high/lower low that gives the technical indication of the future direction. A wave one will continue from a low to a high point before it finds significant enough rejection to then form the wave two. When a third wave breaks into a higher high/lower low the only probable numerical target bearing available on a financial chart is the equivalent of the wave one low to high point. It is highly probable that the wave three will look to numerically replicate wave one before it makes its future directional decision. It may continue past its third wave target but it is only the wave one evidence that a price was able to continue before rejection that is available to look to as a probable target for a third wave.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046173542,"gmtCreate":1656319776186,"gmtModify":1676535805441,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"P/E is high, but still a stock for the future. Retracement is good&nbsp;","listText":"P/E is high, but still a stock for the future. Retracement is good&nbsp;","text":"P/E is high, but still a stock for the future. Retracement is good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046173542","repostId":"1151565966","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151565966","pubTimestamp":1656319083,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151565966?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-27 16:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CrowdStrike: A Bargain, But This Is Not The Bottom","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151565966","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryCRWD had declined by 22% since our previous hold rating, given its previously elevated valuat","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>CRWD had declined by 22% since our previous hold rating, given its previously elevated valuations.</li><li>However, given the increasingly bearish market sentiment, we have lowered our price target to $120.</li><li>In the meantime, those who had entered highs must be prepared to ride the volatility wave for a little longer.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) has continued to deliver on its promises, despite the management&#39;s lofty guidance during its recent Investor Briefing. Though slowing enterprise spending could be a temporary headwind, we are not concerned about its prospects in the long-term, given that the global cloud computing market is expected to grow from $445.3B in 2021 to $947.3B in 2026, at a CAGR of 16.3%.</p><p>Nonetheless, we may expect more volatility ahead as Mr. Market continues to worry about the Fed&#39;s hike in interest rates and the potential recession. Given the drastic market correction since November 2021, CRWD has lost half of its pandemic gains. If the bearish market sentiments continue for the next few months, we may expect another retracement, which would provide interested investors with a safer entry point to this winning stock.</p><p><b>CRWD Has Showed Exemplary Execution Thus Far</b></p><p><b>CRWD Revenue, Net Income, Net Income Margin, and Gross Income</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175b0002b26c91517a24ed92a3e1aaae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>CRWD reported revenues of $1.64B and gross margins of 73.6% in the LTM, representing impressive revenue growth of 88.5% YoY. Nonetheless, it is also evident that the company has yet to report net income profitability, with a net income of -$0.18B and a net income margin of -11.1% in the LTM.</p><p><b>CRWD ARR, Revenue By Segment, and Customer Count</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9dbeabdd88e6718f636295473affab4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>As seen from the chart, it is evident that CRWD has been on a successful mission in acquiring customers and growing its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). By the FQ1&#39;23, the company reported an impressive ARR of $1.92B, with an excellent 18.11% growth QoQ and 43.2% YoY, while also recording a total of 17.94K of customers, with 57% of YoY growth. In addition, CRWD&#39;s investment in its channel partners has also been paying off, with the segment now accounting for 80.3% of its revenues, as opposed to 74.9% in FQ1&#39;22.</p><p>Nonetheless, we believe the analysts&#39; concerns on the&#34;slowing ARR growth&#34;is valid, given the potential recession slowing enterprise investment moving forward. Nevertheless, we are optimistic about its long-term prospects, since the headwinds are temporary at best</p><p><b>CRWD Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF Margins</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e17ae7a3c1e42b701bd0f4438971a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>CRWD has also been reporting positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) since FQ3&#39;20. The company recorded FCF of $0.5B in the LTM, while also growing its cash and equivalents to $2.15B simultaneously. Given the massive YoY improvement in its levered FCF yield from 0.5% in FQ1&#39;22 to 1.7% in FQ1&#39;23, it is not hard to assume that CRWD may easily double its yield by FY2024, once the company reports sustained net income profitability. We shall see.</p><p><b>CRWD Operating Expense</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8d32f0f43c9d25be3da4599960baa1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, CRWD has been aggressively growing its operational expenses in the past two years, with $1.33B of expenses in the LTM. However, it is evident that the company has been prudent in its capital management as well, given the moderated percentage of its growing revenue at 81.5% in the LTM, compared to 100.9% in FY2020 and 119.9% in FY2019.</p><p><b>CRWD Net PPE and Capex</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955a4820727ada550ec1825ae6329632\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>In the meantime, CRWD has also been increasing its Capex investments over time, with a total Capex of $138.6M and net PPE assets of $302.6M in the LTM. Nonetheless, these growing investments in its capabilities are essential for the company&#39;s growth, since they would directly contribute to its top and bottom lines moving forward. In addition, we are not overly concerned, given its positive FCF generation, strong cash and equivalents on its balance sheet, and the projected net income profitability by FY2023.</p><p><b>CRWD Long-Term Debt and Share Dilution</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34fc5c95e33161aedf3aea88e241e460\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>CRWD has also been evidently careful in its capital management, despite the lack of net income profitability thus far. The company had refrained from massive debt leveraging and share dilution in the past two years, despite the exponentially growing operational expenses and capital expenditures. CRWD also reported a relatively modest share-based compensation(SBC) of $309.9M in FY2022, representing an increase of 207.1% YoY. Assuming a similar rate, the company would report a total of SBC expenses at $409.6M for FY2023, based on$102.4Mof expenses in FQ1&#39;23. It would represent an apparent deceleration in SBC expenses of 32.1% YoY.</p><p><b>CRWD Projected Revenue and Net Income</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40057f587a0b8ef400ae4c9a30cb069e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Over the next three years, CRWD is expected to report revenue growth at a CAGR of 39.31% and net income at a CAGR of 50.86%. For FY2023, the company guided revenues in the range of $2.19B to $2.205B against consensus estimates of $2.15B and net income profitability at $0.29B. Its FQ2&#39;23 guidance looks excellent as well, with revenues in the range of $512.7M to $516.8M against consensus estimates of $509.9M. Its net income profitability is also expected to improve over time, with a projected net income margin of $13.1% in FY2023 to 16.8% in FY2025.</p><p><b>So, Is CRWD Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><b>CRWD 3Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3295c1cea2c9c76d3c65eb4f71cc8c2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>CRWD is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 16.39x and NTM P/E of 139.11x, lower than its 3Y EV/Revenue mean of 28.09x though massively elevated from its 3Y P/E mean of 21.76x. The stock is also trading at $175.90, down 41.4% from its 52 weeks high of $298.48, though at a premium of 34.5% from its 52 weeks low of $130. Despite its excellent FQ1&#39;23 earnings call on 02 June 2022, CRWD had also traded mostly sideways in the past three weeks. Gone were the days of the stock rallies post-earnings calls with excellent performance and guidance.</p><p><b>CRWD 3Y Stock Price</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87c1d61e2a53109067f9e28579ac5471\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Though consensus estimates still rate CRWD as an attractive buy with a price target of $238, with a 36.08% upside, we recommend patience for now. Given the bearish market sentiments, there is a strong likelihood of a moderate stock retracement in the next few months as its fundamentals are uncoupled from the stock performance. As a result, we encourage patience before adding more exposure.</p><p>Therefore, we <i>reiterate our Hold rating on CRWD stock now.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CrowdStrike: A Bargain, But This Is Not The Bottom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrowdStrike: A Bargain, But This Is Not The Bottom\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-27 16:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520107-crowdstrike-bargain-not-bottom?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A41><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCRWD had declined by 22% since our previous hold rating, given its previously elevated valuations.However, given the increasingly bearish market sentiment, we have lowered our price target to $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520107-crowdstrike-bargain-not-bottom?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A41\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520107-crowdstrike-bargain-not-bottom?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A41","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151565966","content_text":"SummaryCRWD had declined by 22% since our previous hold rating, given its previously elevated valuations.However, given the increasingly bearish market sentiment, we have lowered our price target to $120.In the meantime, those who had entered highs must be prepared to ride the volatility wave for a little longer.Investment ThesisCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) has continued to deliver on its promises, despite the management's lofty guidance during its recent Investor Briefing. Though slowing enterprise spending could be a temporary headwind, we are not concerned about its prospects in the long-term, given that the global cloud computing market is expected to grow from $445.3B in 2021 to $947.3B in 2026, at a CAGR of 16.3%.Nonetheless, we may expect more volatility ahead as Mr. Market continues to worry about the Fed's hike in interest rates and the potential recession. Given the drastic market correction since November 2021, CRWD has lost half of its pandemic gains. If the bearish market sentiments continue for the next few months, we may expect another retracement, which would provide interested investors with a safer entry point to this winning stock.CRWD Has Showed Exemplary Execution Thus FarCRWD Revenue, Net Income, Net Income Margin, and Gross IncomeS&P Capital IQCRWD reported revenues of $1.64B and gross margins of 73.6% in the LTM, representing impressive revenue growth of 88.5% YoY. Nonetheless, it is also evident that the company has yet to report net income profitability, with a net income of -$0.18B and a net income margin of -11.1% in the LTM.CRWD ARR, Revenue By Segment, and Customer CountS&P Capital IQAs seen from the chart, it is evident that CRWD has been on a successful mission in acquiring customers and growing its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). By the FQ1'23, the company reported an impressive ARR of $1.92B, with an excellent 18.11% growth QoQ and 43.2% YoY, while also recording a total of 17.94K of customers, with 57% of YoY growth. In addition, CRWD's investment in its channel partners has also been paying off, with the segment now accounting for 80.3% of its revenues, as opposed to 74.9% in FQ1'22.Nonetheless, we believe the analysts' concerns on the\"slowing ARR growth\"is valid, given the potential recession slowing enterprise investment moving forward. Nevertheless, we are optimistic about its long-term prospects, since the headwinds are temporary at bestCRWD Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF MarginsS&P Capital IQCRWD has also been reporting positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) since FQ3'20. The company recorded FCF of $0.5B in the LTM, while also growing its cash and equivalents to $2.15B simultaneously. Given the massive YoY improvement in its levered FCF yield from 0.5% in FQ1'22 to 1.7% in FQ1'23, it is not hard to assume that CRWD may easily double its yield by FY2024, once the company reports sustained net income profitability. We shall see.CRWD Operating ExpenseS&P Capital IQDespite the COVID-19 pandemic, CRWD has been aggressively growing its operational expenses in the past two years, with $1.33B of expenses in the LTM. However, it is evident that the company has been prudent in its capital management as well, given the moderated percentage of its growing revenue at 81.5% in the LTM, compared to 100.9% in FY2020 and 119.9% in FY2019.CRWD Net PPE and CapexS&P Capital IQIn the meantime, CRWD has also been increasing its Capex investments over time, with a total Capex of $138.6M and net PPE assets of $302.6M in the LTM. Nonetheless, these growing investments in its capabilities are essential for the company's growth, since they would directly contribute to its top and bottom lines moving forward. In addition, we are not overly concerned, given its positive FCF generation, strong cash and equivalents on its balance sheet, and the projected net income profitability by FY2023.CRWD Long-Term Debt and Share DilutionS&P Capital IQCRWD has also been evidently careful in its capital management, despite the lack of net income profitability thus far. The company had refrained from massive debt leveraging and share dilution in the past two years, despite the exponentially growing operational expenses and capital expenditures. CRWD also reported a relatively modest share-based compensation(SBC) of $309.9M in FY2022, representing an increase of 207.1% YoY. Assuming a similar rate, the company would report a total of SBC expenses at $409.6M for FY2023, based on$102.4Mof expenses in FQ1'23. It would represent an apparent deceleration in SBC expenses of 32.1% YoY.CRWD Projected Revenue and Net IncomeS&P Capital IQOver the next three years, CRWD is expected to report revenue growth at a CAGR of 39.31% and net income at a CAGR of 50.86%. For FY2023, the company guided revenues in the range of $2.19B to $2.205B against consensus estimates of $2.15B and net income profitability at $0.29B. Its FQ2'23 guidance looks excellent as well, with revenues in the range of $512.7M to $516.8M against consensus estimates of $509.9M. Its net income profitability is also expected to improve over time, with a projected net income margin of $13.1% in FY2023 to 16.8% in FY2025.So, Is CRWD Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?CRWD 3Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQCRWD is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 16.39x and NTM P/E of 139.11x, lower than its 3Y EV/Revenue mean of 28.09x though massively elevated from its 3Y P/E mean of 21.76x. The stock is also trading at $175.90, down 41.4% from its 52 weeks high of $298.48, though at a premium of 34.5% from its 52 weeks low of $130. Despite its excellent FQ1'23 earnings call on 02 June 2022, CRWD had also traded mostly sideways in the past three weeks. Gone were the days of the stock rallies post-earnings calls with excellent performance and guidance.CRWD 3Y Stock PriceSeeking AlphaThough consensus estimates still rate CRWD as an attractive buy with a price target of $238, with a 36.08% upside, we recommend patience for now. Given the bearish market sentiments, there is a strong likelihood of a moderate stock retracement in the next few months as its fundamentals are uncoupled from the stock performance. As a result, we encourage patience before adding more exposure.Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on CRWD stock now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080450126,"gmtCreate":1649908354693,"gmtModify":1676534604983,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If you're trading long term, this predicted drop will be a delicious opportunity&nbsp;","listText":"If you're trading long term, this predicted drop will be a delicious opportunity&nbsp;","text":"If you're trading long term, this predicted drop will be a delicious opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080450126","repostId":"2227614890","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2227614890","pubTimestamp":1649901116,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227614890?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-14 09:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: Risks Are Growing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227614890","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Chinese EV startup NIO (NYSE:NIO) surprised the market this week by announcing that it is forced to curtail EV production due to a worsening parts shortage that could, potentially, materially impair N","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese EV startup NIO (NYSE:NIO) surprised the market this week by announcing that it is forced to curtail EV production due to a worsening parts shortage that could, potentially, materially impair NIO&#39;s ability to double electric vehicle deliveries in 2022. In related news, NIO said that it is going to follow other EV companies and raise retail prices for all of its electric vehicle products.</p><p>I believe shares of NIO are still a long term buy based on commercial growth prospects in the Chinese EV industry, but my previous delivery estimate of 190,000 electric vehicles, due to NIO&#39;s production suspension, is no longer defensible. While I projected a strong delivery rebound for March due to the end of Chinese holidays, deliveries are likely going to drop off for NIO in the second-quarter.</p><h2><b>Updating my delivery projections for FY 2022 due to evolving production circumstances</b></h2><p>To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 outbreaks in a couple of Chinese provinces including Shanghai, authorities have enacted strict new disease control measures, shutting down factories and forcing people to stay at home. Strict lockdown measures have been put in place in Shanghai and Jilin (as well as other provinces), affecting NIO&#39;s supply chain partners and resulting in a suspension of NIO&#39;s electric vehicle production. NIO also warned of delayed deliveries to current customers because of these factory shutdowns.</p><p>NIO isn&#39;t the only EV company that has been affected by new COVID-19 shutdowns. Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) Shanghai Gigafactory has effectively been closed since the end of March, which is expected to take a heavy toll on Tesla&#39;s delivery volumes in April as well.</p><p>The secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, Cui Shudong, expects the recent COVID-19 to curtail auto production in China by 20%… which is a significant percentage and things could get worse short term. How long the shutdowns will last is of course uncertain at this point, but they are certainly not good news for NIO, which has struggled with temporary production setbacks ever since the pandemic began in early 2020.</p><p>NIO managed to deliver a material delivery rebound that saw its month over month delivery rate jump from a dismal 9.9% in February to 37.6% in March. The rebound in March deliveries was a key argument for me to remain bullish on a significant production rebound in FY 2022. But now, with the latest production setback hurting NIO, I see no other choice but to correct my 2022 delivery estimate that I touted in my previous work on NIO. More likely than not, NIO is going to see a steep drop-off in deliveries for the month of April and possibly even in the months after that. NIO&#39;s Q2&#39;22 delivery forecast is likely not going to be great, either.</p><p>I believed, before the latest round of factory shutdowns, that NIO would be able to pull off a hard rebound in EV deliveries in FY 2022. However, due to changing circumstances and new, significant uncertainty surrounding NIO&#39;s production ramp, I am lowering my FY 2022 delivery unit forecast from 190,000 electric vehicles to 160,000 electric vehicles. This marks a 16% downward adjustment for NIO&#39;s delivery volume this year, and I may further update my delivery estimates if factories of NIO&#39;s production partners remain shut longer.</p><p>With about 160,000 electric vehicle deliveries still possible in FY 2022, NIO would still generate about 75% year over year delivery growth. While the rate of delivery growth would still be impressive, it would mark a step-down from the FY 2021 year over year growth rate of 109%. Last year, NIO delivered 91,429 electric vehicles to customers.</p><h2><b>Retail price increases meant to stabilize vehicle margins due to soaring material costs</b></h2><p>NIO has been able to grow vehicle margins of its product lineup to 20.9% in Q4&#39;21, showing an improvement of 370 basis points compared to the year-earlier period. However, supply chain issues and inflation (rising material costs) are a threat to NIO&#39;s profit margins. To compensate for higher (battery) costs, NIO just announced on its app that it was raising retail prices across the board by 10%, effective May 10. A new NIO electric vehicle, starting next month, will become 10,000 Chinese Yuan or $1,572 more expensive. NIO&#39;s battery prices will also go up by between 1,480 and 1,680 Chinese Yuan.</p><p>By raising retail prices, NIO follows other EV startups such as XPeng (XPEV) which also increased prices last month, in part to compensate for higher material costs but also to offset cuts to EV subsidies. Li Auto (LI) also raised prices by 11,800 Chinese Yuan, which calculates to US$1,855.</p><p>NIO&#39;s price hike may lead to a short term dip in vehicle reservations, but I believe it will not impact NIO&#39;s long term potential for sustained revenue growth.</p><h2><b>NIO&#39;s #1 risk right now</b></h2><p>NIO&#39;s biggest risk is the supply chain. As risks to the supply chain are growing, NIO&#39;s ability to achieve 100% electric vehicle delivery growth in FY 2022 is also put at risk. NIO does not make full year delivery projections, but analysts are likely to refresh their delivery and revenue estimates for FY 2022 to account for the latest round of factory shutdowns... which could result in the stock revaluing lower.</p><h2>NIO&#39;s valuation and possibility of new lows</h2><p>I believe, as much as I like NIO, that the stock will fall to new lows as investors have to deal with materially increased production and delivery uncertainty this year. NIO&#39;s April delivery numbers are not going to be great either. While shares of NIO are still cheap based off of expected revenues, risks with NIO have undoubtedly increased this week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca1e0ee5a0699e16159a493aaada033e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h2><b>Final thoughts</b></h2><p>The implication of the current round of COVID-19 related shutdowns in China and NIO&#39;s production suspension is that I now expect NIO&#39;s delivery growth to materially decelerate compared to FY 2021… even if ET7 sedan deliveries, which began just last month, are set to make a positive contribution to NIO&#39;s total deliveries in FY 2022.</p><p>The announced 10% retail price hike is going to help NIO offset higher raw material and component costs which may help stabilize vehicle margins. However, I don&#39;t believe the price increase itself will result in a large number of reservation cancellations. Longer term, NIO is still attractive as a growth play on the Chinese EV market, but it may take longer for the stock to revalue higher!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Risks Are Growing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Risks Are Growing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-14 09:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501176-nio-risks-are-growing><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chinese EV startup NIO (NYSE:NIO) surprised the market this week by announcing that it is forced to curtail EV production due to a worsening parts shortage that could, potentially, materially impair ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501176-nio-risks-are-growing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4504":"桥水持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501176-nio-risks-are-growing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2227614890","content_text":"Chinese EV startup NIO (NYSE:NIO) surprised the market this week by announcing that it is forced to curtail EV production due to a worsening parts shortage that could, potentially, materially impair NIO's ability to double electric vehicle deliveries in 2022. In related news, NIO said that it is going to follow other EV companies and raise retail prices for all of its electric vehicle products.I believe shares of NIO are still a long term buy based on commercial growth prospects in the Chinese EV industry, but my previous delivery estimate of 190,000 electric vehicles, due to NIO's production suspension, is no longer defensible. While I projected a strong delivery rebound for March due to the end of Chinese holidays, deliveries are likely going to drop off for NIO in the second-quarter.Updating my delivery projections for FY 2022 due to evolving production circumstancesTo mitigate the spread of COVID-19 outbreaks in a couple of Chinese provinces including Shanghai, authorities have enacted strict new disease control measures, shutting down factories and forcing people to stay at home. Strict lockdown measures have been put in place in Shanghai and Jilin (as well as other provinces), affecting NIO's supply chain partners and resulting in a suspension of NIO's electric vehicle production. NIO also warned of delayed deliveries to current customers because of these factory shutdowns.NIO isn't the only EV company that has been affected by new COVID-19 shutdowns. Tesla's (TSLA) Shanghai Gigafactory has effectively been closed since the end of March, which is expected to take a heavy toll on Tesla's delivery volumes in April as well.The secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, Cui Shudong, expects the recent COVID-19 to curtail auto production in China by 20%… which is a significant percentage and things could get worse short term. How long the shutdowns will last is of course uncertain at this point, but they are certainly not good news for NIO, which has struggled with temporary production setbacks ever since the pandemic began in early 2020.NIO managed to deliver a material delivery rebound that saw its month over month delivery rate jump from a dismal 9.9% in February to 37.6% in March. The rebound in March deliveries was a key argument for me to remain bullish on a significant production rebound in FY 2022. But now, with the latest production setback hurting NIO, I see no other choice but to correct my 2022 delivery estimate that I touted in my previous work on NIO. More likely than not, NIO is going to see a steep drop-off in deliveries for the month of April and possibly even in the months after that. NIO's Q2'22 delivery forecast is likely not going to be great, either.I believed, before the latest round of factory shutdowns, that NIO would be able to pull off a hard rebound in EV deliveries in FY 2022. However, due to changing circumstances and new, significant uncertainty surrounding NIO's production ramp, I am lowering my FY 2022 delivery unit forecast from 190,000 electric vehicles to 160,000 electric vehicles. This marks a 16% downward adjustment for NIO's delivery volume this year, and I may further update my delivery estimates if factories of NIO's production partners remain shut longer.With about 160,000 electric vehicle deliveries still possible in FY 2022, NIO would still generate about 75% year over year delivery growth. While the rate of delivery growth would still be impressive, it would mark a step-down from the FY 2021 year over year growth rate of 109%. Last year, NIO delivered 91,429 electric vehicles to customers.Retail price increases meant to stabilize vehicle margins due to soaring material costsNIO has been able to grow vehicle margins of its product lineup to 20.9% in Q4'21, showing an improvement of 370 basis points compared to the year-earlier period. However, supply chain issues and inflation (rising material costs) are a threat to NIO's profit margins. To compensate for higher (battery) costs, NIO just announced on its app that it was raising retail prices across the board by 10%, effective May 10. A new NIO electric vehicle, starting next month, will become 10,000 Chinese Yuan or $1,572 more expensive. NIO's battery prices will also go up by between 1,480 and 1,680 Chinese Yuan.By raising retail prices, NIO follows other EV startups such as XPeng (XPEV) which also increased prices last month, in part to compensate for higher material costs but also to offset cuts to EV subsidies. Li Auto (LI) also raised prices by 11,800 Chinese Yuan, which calculates to US$1,855.NIO's price hike may lead to a short term dip in vehicle reservations, but I believe it will not impact NIO's long term potential for sustained revenue growth.NIO's #1 risk right nowNIO's biggest risk is the supply chain. As risks to the supply chain are growing, NIO's ability to achieve 100% electric vehicle delivery growth in FY 2022 is also put at risk. NIO does not make full year delivery projections, but analysts are likely to refresh their delivery and revenue estimates for FY 2022 to account for the latest round of factory shutdowns... which could result in the stock revaluing lower.NIO's valuation and possibility of new lowsI believe, as much as I like NIO, that the stock will fall to new lows as investors have to deal with materially increased production and delivery uncertainty this year. NIO's April delivery numbers are not going to be great either. While shares of NIO are still cheap based off of expected revenues, risks with NIO have undoubtedly increased this week.Data by YChartsFinal thoughtsThe implication of the current round of COVID-19 related shutdowns in China and NIO's production suspension is that I now expect NIO's delivery growth to materially decelerate compared to FY 2021… even if ET7 sedan deliveries, which began just last month, are set to make a positive contribution to NIO's total deliveries in FY 2022.The announced 10% retail price hike is going to help NIO offset higher raw material and component costs which may help stabilize vehicle margins. However, I don't believe the price increase itself will result in a large number of reservation cancellations. Longer term, NIO is still attractive as a growth play on the Chinese EV market, but it may take longer for the stock to revalue higher!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"content":"Well, analysts project low 200s, I'd be happy to get 150, which is still 750% up on an average price of 20, over ten years I'd be happy with that if I chucked it there and forgot about it","text":"Well, analysts project low 200s, I'd be happy to get 150, which is still 750% up on an average price of 20, over ten years I'd be happy with that if I chucked it there and forgot about it","html":"Well, analysts project low 200s, I'd be happy to get 150, which is still 750% up on an average price of 20, over ten years I'd be happy with that if I chucked it there and forgot about it"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076476053,"gmtCreate":1657897978972,"gmtModify":1676536079084,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read, appreciate the analysis","listText":"Good read, appreciate the analysis","text":"Good read, appreciate the analysis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076476053","repostId":"1136389178","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136389178","pubTimestamp":1657895698,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136389178?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 22:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Vs. The FAANGs (Technical Analysis)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136389178","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company’s operating margi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Apple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company’s operating margin of 30.82% and the net profit margin of 25.71% are excellent.</li><li>In regards to the S&amp;P 500, Apple currently takes up 6.85% of the weighting in the S&amp;P 500, and therefore gets 6.85% of funds going into the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>I think the odds are high that we at least attempt a double bottom, if not a push towards 3500 SPX before we can start looking up.</li></ul><p>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) became the most valuable company in the world through creating and dominating the smart phone/mobile microtrend. As the majority of the global community went from zero smart phones to it becoming a necessity in their lives, Apple became the most valuable company in the world. However, like all trends, eventually it reaches the point of saturation. Instead of hypergrowth, we see competitors fight over existing customers on lower cost goods as revenue growth moves into a more consistent yet slower rate of change.</p><p>Apple epitomizes what it means to be both a good value stock and a good tech stock with its strong margins, outsized cash flows, stable balance sheet, and a loyal base of customers supporting the brand.</p><p>Apple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company&#39;s operating margin of 30.82% and the net profit margin of 25.71% are excellent, while most tech companies are currently struggling with the bottom line. It also has an outstanding free cash flow margin of 26.37%. The company has also been shareholder-friendly since it consistently repurchases shares.</p><p>We have not owned Apple because it is simply not involved in any of the new tech micro trends that will likely give us the next Google (GOOG,GOOGL), Apple, or Amazon (AMZN). However, this does not mean that Apple does not deserve a place within a portfolio.</p><p>Apple is an outsized beneficiary to passive investing. For those that do not want to pick stocks, and instead just own the index, Apple takes up the largest portion of this money. For example, if you don&#39;t want to own tech companies and instead want simply exposure through Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), 23.47% of that money goes to Apple.</p><p>In regards to the S&amp;P 500, which is the most passively owned index through various mutual funds and ETFs, Apple currently takes up 6.85% of the weighting in the S&amp;P 500, and therefore gets 6.85% of funds going into the S&amp;P 500. This is more than UnitedHealth Group, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B), Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), Nvidia (NVDA), and Exxon (XOM) combined!</p><p>Because of how its history of share buybacks, healthy Free Cash Flow, and its very large market cap, it remains a darling within institutional funds that are managing billions. In fact, as of June 30th, 16.07 billion shares outstanding are owned by institutions. This means that roughly 98% of all shares outstanding are owned by institutions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a070616b096f9ca94ef55ab58692ee4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p>Even though it is not in the forefront of AI, Machine Learning, Cloud or Big Data, it is uniquely setup to capture an outsized portion of passive investors&#39; funds as well as institutional funds. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine the broad markets making new highs without Apple.</p><p>Technically, Apple has exhibited a level of relative strength in this bounce that is what you want to see in confirming a broad market trend reversal. It has reclaimed the $145 resistance level, which is a key supply zone to take back. Whether it will hold it is the question?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb3d2ed0722cc7199520096730319d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p>The fact that Apple has reclaimed the $145 level is a show of strength, regardless of the weakness in the momentum. If the other FAANGs were showing the level of strength APPL is right now by reclaiming key resistance levels, that would be encouraging that a meaningful low is underway. However, we are just not seeing that right now.</p><p><b>Google</b></p><p>We recently wrote about how Google (Alphabet) is our second favorite FAANG. In a cookie-less world due to Apple&#39;s notable change to its IDFA, owners of 1st party data, like Google, are setting themselves up to further dominate. This catalyst, coupled with its positioning within the AI microtrend, is the reason why it reserves a position within our portfolio.</p><p>This also lines up with the technical chart on a long-term basis. Google is the healthiest chart amongst the FAANGs, as it is comfortably above its critical support zone at $1800. As long as any additional weakness is seen here, above this critical support suggests that GOOGL is one of the FAANGs that is likely to make a new high.</p><p>However, over the next month, it appears that Google is tracing a bear flag pattern. This is a common pattern that we see in 4th waves, which suggests we need one more wave to complete the 5 wave pattern in Google&#39;s drawdown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4727cac13e692a2e81039e8b36e9486\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p><b>Netflix</b></p><p>NFLX is another FAANG that we believe has a higher probability of making a new high in the next growth cycle than most believe. While market was focused on NFLX reporting a subscriber miss of 200,000, it failed to recognize that NFLX is on track to monetize around 100 million new subscribers who are sneaking onto the platform through shared passwords. We wrote about this extensively in a recently report, and as a result has entered into our matrix of potential positions to own going into the next growth cycle.</p><p>We believe NFLX is undervalued based on where this monetization will take its revenue in the coming quarters, and this is showing up in the chart on a long-term basis. However, over the next month, Netflix looks to be tracing a bear pennant pattern/triangle pattern. These are common in 4th waves, suggesting one more push lower to complete the drawdown.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf6d052cb9d09456608464cf676403f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p><b>Microsoft</b></p><p>Microsoft (MSFT) is one of the FAAMGs that we believe will continue to exhibit dominance into future tech trends. It is one of the leaders in the on-going cloud trend, and is also setting itself up to lead in edge computing and machine learning. We believe Microsoft has multiple catalysts to maintain its growth, which is why we own it within our portfolio.</p><p>We think Microsoft is the best risk/reward mega-cap tech stock due to its firm foundation in the cloud and its diversified cloud products. It&#39;s also positioned for outsized growth due to its exposure to secular tailwinds such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and the build out of the 5G network edge. We think Microsoft will take a substantial share of these markets at the infrastructure level due to its relationships with the Fortune 500 and Global Fortune 2000.</p><p>The company&#39;s business relationships with Fortune 500 companies, brand image, and wide user base are the moats that will help the company drive revenues in the hybrid cloud, machine learning, and artificial intelligence segments. Microsoft Azure is used by more than95% of the Fortune 500companies, which shows the company&#39;s dominance across enterprises.</p><p>This is also present within the long-term chart of Microsoft, as it is another FAANG that has a high probability of making a new high in the next growth cycle. As long as it critical support holds at $215, this will remain our primary outlook. However, like the rest of the FAANGs, it looks like it is setting up for one more push lower before we can start looking up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65aa124e1c87e1c5572efc96e59bfc12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p><b>Amazon</b></p><p>Amazon also looks ready to break the $101.50 support zone in what looks like a 4th wave top. The RSI continues to fail under the key bear market resistance at 57. We also have a confirmed Negative RSI Reversal Signal, which is when the RSI makes a higher high while price makes a lower high. This is happening well underneath the bear market resistance of 57 on the RSI. The odds favor one more push lower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a7e382f494edbf435b73e7da8225ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p><b>Meta</b></p><p>Meta Platforms (META) is the one stock within the FAANGs that has a high probability of not seeing new highs in the next growth cycle. Fundamentally, the effects of Apple&#39;s changes to IDFA has finally caught up with META. We have been warning about this shift in META since early 2020. In short, Audience Network is what allowed META to become the advertising behemoth that it is. Not only was META capturing 1st party data through Facebook, but Audience Network allowed it to capture a large portion of 3rd party data.</p><p>We had also said back in2018that we think Audience Network contributed $5 Billion to $10 Billion in ad revenue (the third-party data ad exchange FB uses). Three years later, that&#39;s what Facebook stated in their February 2nd earrings call - &#34;we believe the impact of iOS overall as a headwind on our business in 2022 is on the order of $10 billion.&#34;</p><p>Simply put, the metaverse is simply not big enough to fill this revenue gap. This is showing up in the chart of META. For one, we have a confirmed 5 wave drop from the all-time high. For one, note how the 3rd wave, which is the most powerful move in a trend, happened on peak volume and peak momentum. This is because traders/investors realized that they are on the wrong side of the herd. They sell at any price, creating an intense moment of sentiment. The 5th waves are always on weaker volume and momentum, which is what we are seeing. Here, the shorts always press their luck, exhausting sellers for this move down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f532779f0dd8afde80d50c7dda43112\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Chart Made by Author</p><p>Why this is significant is that the only corrective pattern that starts with 5 waves down is a Zig-Zag pattern. This is 5 waves down, a 3 wave retrace that fails around half way, then another 5 wave pattern down to new lows. If accurate, the next growth cycle will have META making a move back towards $225-$275 before failing.</p><p>For this to invalidate, META must reclaim the $330 resistance zone. This is unlikely due to the fundamental problems META now faces.</p><p>In conclusion, there are simply too many divergences between Apple&#39;s strength and the rest of the FAANGs to signal a meaningful low is in. I think the odds are high that we at least attempt a double bottom, if not a push towards 3500 SPX before we can start looking up. I do believe that if we do see a push to new lows, it will likely be the 5th wave in this correction. So, it should be on weaker momentum and less volume than prior moves. If so, we will continue to add to beaten down tech stocks that primed to become the next FAANGs.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Vs. The FAANGs (Technical Analysis)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Vs. The FAANGs (Technical Analysis)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 22:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523346-apple-vs-the-faangs-technical-analysis><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company’s operating margin of 30.82% and the net profit margin of 25.71% are excellent.In regards to the S&P 500, Apple ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523346-apple-vs-the-faangs-technical-analysis\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌","AAPL":"苹果","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AMZN":"亚马逊","NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523346-apple-vs-the-faangs-technical-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136389178","content_text":"SummaryApple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company’s operating margin of 30.82% and the net profit margin of 25.71% are excellent.In regards to the S&P 500, Apple currently takes up 6.85% of the weighting in the S&P 500, and therefore gets 6.85% of funds going into the S&P 500.I think the odds are high that we at least attempt a double bottom, if not a push towards 3500 SPX before we can start looking up.Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) became the most valuable company in the world through creating and dominating the smart phone/mobile microtrend. As the majority of the global community went from zero smart phones to it becoming a necessity in their lives, Apple became the most valuable company in the world. However, like all trends, eventually it reaches the point of saturation. Instead of hypergrowth, we see competitors fight over existing customers on lower cost goods as revenue growth moves into a more consistent yet slower rate of change.Apple epitomizes what it means to be both a good value stock and a good tech stock with its strong margins, outsized cash flows, stable balance sheet, and a loyal base of customers supporting the brand.Apple has been very consistent with its margins and cash flows. The company's operating margin of 30.82% and the net profit margin of 25.71% are excellent, while most tech companies are currently struggling with the bottom line. It also has an outstanding free cash flow margin of 26.37%. The company has also been shareholder-friendly since it consistently repurchases shares.We have not owned Apple because it is simply not involved in any of the new tech micro trends that will likely give us the next Google (GOOG,GOOGL), Apple, or Amazon (AMZN). However, this does not mean that Apple does not deserve a place within a portfolio.Apple is an outsized beneficiary to passive investing. For those that do not want to pick stocks, and instead just own the index, Apple takes up the largest portion of this money. For example, if you don't want to own tech companies and instead want simply exposure through Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), 23.47% of that money goes to Apple.In regards to the S&P 500, which is the most passively owned index through various mutual funds and ETFs, Apple currently takes up 6.85% of the weighting in the S&P 500, and therefore gets 6.85% of funds going into the S&P 500. This is more than UnitedHealth Group, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Nvidia (NVDA), and Exxon (XOM) combined!Because of how its history of share buybacks, healthy Free Cash Flow, and its very large market cap, it remains a darling within institutional funds that are managing billions. In fact, as of June 30th, 16.07 billion shares outstanding are owned by institutions. This means that roughly 98% of all shares outstanding are owned by institutions.Chart Made by AuthorEven though it is not in the forefront of AI, Machine Learning, Cloud or Big Data, it is uniquely setup to capture an outsized portion of passive investors' funds as well as institutional funds. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine the broad markets making new highs without Apple.Technically, Apple has exhibited a level of relative strength in this bounce that is what you want to see in confirming a broad market trend reversal. It has reclaimed the $145 resistance level, which is a key supply zone to take back. Whether it will hold it is the question?Chart Made by AuthorThe fact that Apple has reclaimed the $145 level is a show of strength, regardless of the weakness in the momentum. If the other FAANGs were showing the level of strength APPL is right now by reclaiming key resistance levels, that would be encouraging that a meaningful low is underway. However, we are just not seeing that right now.GoogleWe recently wrote about how Google (Alphabet) is our second favorite FAANG. In a cookie-less world due to Apple's notable change to its IDFA, owners of 1st party data, like Google, are setting themselves up to further dominate. This catalyst, coupled with its positioning within the AI microtrend, is the reason why it reserves a position within our portfolio.This also lines up with the technical chart on a long-term basis. Google is the healthiest chart amongst the FAANGs, as it is comfortably above its critical support zone at $1800. As long as any additional weakness is seen here, above this critical support suggests that GOOGL is one of the FAANGs that is likely to make a new high.However, over the next month, it appears that Google is tracing a bear flag pattern. This is a common pattern that we see in 4th waves, which suggests we need one more wave to complete the 5 wave pattern in Google's drawdown.Chart Made by AuthorNetflixNFLX is another FAANG that we believe has a higher probability of making a new high in the next growth cycle than most believe. While market was focused on NFLX reporting a subscriber miss of 200,000, it failed to recognize that NFLX is on track to monetize around 100 million new subscribers who are sneaking onto the platform through shared passwords. We wrote about this extensively in a recently report, and as a result has entered into our matrix of potential positions to own going into the next growth cycle.We believe NFLX is undervalued based on where this monetization will take its revenue in the coming quarters, and this is showing up in the chart on a long-term basis. However, over the next month, Netflix looks to be tracing a bear pennant pattern/triangle pattern. These are common in 4th waves, suggesting one more push lower to complete the drawdown.Chart Made by AuthorMicrosoftMicrosoft (MSFT) is one of the FAAMGs that we believe will continue to exhibit dominance into future tech trends. It is one of the leaders in the on-going cloud trend, and is also setting itself up to lead in edge computing and machine learning. We believe Microsoft has multiple catalysts to maintain its growth, which is why we own it within our portfolio.We think Microsoft is the best risk/reward mega-cap tech stock due to its firm foundation in the cloud and its diversified cloud products. It's also positioned for outsized growth due to its exposure to secular tailwinds such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and the build out of the 5G network edge. We think Microsoft will take a substantial share of these markets at the infrastructure level due to its relationships with the Fortune 500 and Global Fortune 2000.The company's business relationships with Fortune 500 companies, brand image, and wide user base are the moats that will help the company drive revenues in the hybrid cloud, machine learning, and artificial intelligence segments. Microsoft Azure is used by more than95% of the Fortune 500companies, which shows the company's dominance across enterprises.This is also present within the long-term chart of Microsoft, as it is another FAANG that has a high probability of making a new high in the next growth cycle. As long as it critical support holds at $215, this will remain our primary outlook. However, like the rest of the FAANGs, it looks like it is setting up for one more push lower before we can start looking up.Chart Made by AuthorAmazonAmazon also looks ready to break the $101.50 support zone in what looks like a 4th wave top. The RSI continues to fail under the key bear market resistance at 57. We also have a confirmed Negative RSI Reversal Signal, which is when the RSI makes a higher high while price makes a lower high. This is happening well underneath the bear market resistance of 57 on the RSI. The odds favor one more push lower.Chart Made by AuthorMetaMeta Platforms (META) is the one stock within the FAANGs that has a high probability of not seeing new highs in the next growth cycle. Fundamentally, the effects of Apple's changes to IDFA has finally caught up with META. We have been warning about this shift in META since early 2020. In short, Audience Network is what allowed META to become the advertising behemoth that it is. Not only was META capturing 1st party data through Facebook, but Audience Network allowed it to capture a large portion of 3rd party data.We had also said back in2018that we think Audience Network contributed $5 Billion to $10 Billion in ad revenue (the third-party data ad exchange FB uses). Three years later, that's what Facebook stated in their February 2nd earrings call - \"we believe the impact of iOS overall as a headwind on our business in 2022 is on the order of $10 billion.\"Simply put, the metaverse is simply not big enough to fill this revenue gap. This is showing up in the chart of META. For one, we have a confirmed 5 wave drop from the all-time high. For one, note how the 3rd wave, which is the most powerful move in a trend, happened on peak volume and peak momentum. This is because traders/investors realized that they are on the wrong side of the herd. They sell at any price, creating an intense moment of sentiment. The 5th waves are always on weaker volume and momentum, which is what we are seeing. Here, the shorts always press their luck, exhausting sellers for this move down.Chart Made by AuthorWhy this is significant is that the only corrective pattern that starts with 5 waves down is a Zig-Zag pattern. This is 5 waves down, a 3 wave retrace that fails around half way, then another 5 wave pattern down to new lows. If accurate, the next growth cycle will have META making a move back towards $225-$275 before failing.For this to invalidate, META must reclaim the $330 resistance zone. This is unlikely due to the fundamental problems META now faces.In conclusion, there are simply too many divergences between Apple's strength and the rest of the FAANGs to signal a meaningful low is in. I think the odds are high that we at least attempt a double bottom, if not a push towards 3500 SPX before we can start looking up. I do believe that if we do see a push to new lows, it will likely be the 5th wave in this correction. So, it should be on weaker momentum and less volume than prior moves. If so, we will continue to add to beaten down tech stocks that primed to become the next FAANGs.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045437528,"gmtCreate":1656640733264,"gmtModify":1676535869550,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good article, totally agree","listText":"Good article, totally agree","text":"Good article, totally agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045437528","repostId":"2248858063","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2248858063","pubTimestamp":1656638946,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2248858063?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-01 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify: Stock Split Gimmick Didn't Work","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248858063","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryShopify completed a 10-for-1 stock split this week.The e-commerce platform finds the stock tr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Shopify completed a 10-for-1 stock split this week.</li><li>The e-commerce platform finds the stock trading at 52-week lows despite forecasts for 20% to 30% growth rates going forward.</li><li>The stock valuation is far more reasonable at 4x EV/S, but the retail shakeout needs to end before investing here.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c807376d756380fb93d5b7a9860d8c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) shareholders found out the hard way this week that stock splits aren&#39;t much more than financial gimmicks. After several large cap tech companies successfully split shares in the last year, the e-commerce platformexecuted a large share split and the stock has continued on to recent lows. My investment thesis is more Neutral on Shopify until the retail shakeout ends, but the stock valuation is definitely more appealing here with the stock down over 80% from the highs.</p><p><b>Stock Split</b></p><p>Just about anyone with basic investment knowledge knows a stock split provides no economic benefit to shareholders. A stock split can cause further momentum higher in a bullish trending stock just as a reverse split can create more downside from a bearish trending stock. Either way, an investor still has the same ownership position in the company as before the stock split just more shares in this case.</p><p>Shopify completed a 10-for-1 split on June 29. During the COVID e-commerce surge, the stock traded to a high of $1,763 where a split was probably warranted to make trading by retail investors and options more accessible. The stock though has collapsed prior to the split and now the company finds shares trading down at $31 and possibly heading into the $20s.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e7d9475d51d037e7293388d881a6c4\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: FinViz</span></p><p>Considering stock price levels are considered a matter of strength, Shopify trading back down into the $20s doesn&#39;t throw off the best vibes. If the stock was to head much lower, Shopify might regret such a large split that once appeared logical when a 10-for-1 split would&#39;ve left the stock still trading above $100.</p><p><b>Not Done Growing</b></p><p>The e-commerce infrastructure platform providing retailers with the solutions to operate online still expects to report strong growth in the years ahead. The retail sector is struggling right now evidenced by the weak numbers from Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY), yet the market is extrapolating these results far into the future. A lot the current weakness is due to COVID pull forward making the comps difficult despite retailers still reporting solid numbers compared to 2019.</p><p>Shopify saw explosive growth during 2020 and early 2021 as retailers flocked to the platform looking for any solution to conduct sales online. With the company providing an alternative to selling goods on Amazon (AMZN), Shopify was in hot demand. The company saw the growth rate peak at 110% in Q1&#39;21 making the recently reported quarterly results impressive to generate additional 22% sales growth on top of those growth rates. Shopify only reported Q1&#39;19 revenues of $320 million and hit $1.2 billion in Q1&#39;22 for 275% growth over the period.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e921a7e29b3b22ee0dcad2d791d3e0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the company discussed with investors, GMV growth was supercharged over the COVID shutdown period. Shopify reporting any growth in 2022 is actually very impressive.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/314a015d40bc1512351f5a6477f04595\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Shopify Q1&#39;22 presentation</span></p><p>The market doesn&#39;t really care due to either investors losing interest when growth stories struggle or algos running wild with decelerating growth. Either way, the stock now trades at the lowest trailing P/S ratio since Shopify went public at 8.7x sales. The stock valuation got carried away at the peak along with most tech stocks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d61edac069c39ce077dce14a1e314ad9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>The stock trades at ~5x 2023 sales targets of $7.7 billion. With a cash balance of $7.25 billion with net cash of ~$6.34 billion, Shopify has an impressive balance sheet to fund future growth initiatives.</p><p>The Deliverr deal will require Shopify spend $1.7 billion in cash to pay for the deal to acquire the fulfillment technology provider. Prior to the Deliverr deal, the Shopify enterprise value is only 4x sales estimates providing one of the better prices to own the stock since going public while the prospects for growth remain strong. A lot of the analyst estimates have the company returning to 30% growth rates once the normalization period ends in 2023.</p><p>Shopify was profitable in Q1&#39;22, though the company is scraping the bottom of profitability during the current period. The e-commerce platform has continued to invest in building out the platform despite the reduced growth rates. Regardless, Shopify has the cash balance and income to survive and thrive the current downturn in the retail sector.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>The key investor takeaway is that the stock split gimmick definitely didn&#39;t work for Shopify. The stock had no momentum heading into the split and the lack of economic value for shareholders just provided more shares to sell. As the stock bottoms out over the next quarter, investors should look into acquiring shares of the e-commerce platform leader at a far more reasonable valuation now.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify: Stock Split Gimmick Didn't Work</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify: Stock Split Gimmick Didn't Work\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-01 09:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521209-shopify-stock-split-gimmick-didnt-work><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryShopify completed a 10-for-1 stock split this week.The e-commerce platform finds the stock trading at 52-week lows despite forecasts for 20% to 30% growth rates going forward.The stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521209-shopify-stock-split-gimmick-didnt-work\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521209-shopify-stock-split-gimmick-didnt-work","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2248858063","content_text":"SummaryShopify completed a 10-for-1 stock split this week.The e-commerce platform finds the stock trading at 52-week lows despite forecasts for 20% to 30% growth rates going forward.The stock valuation is far more reasonable at 4x EV/S, but the retail shakeout needs to end before investing here.JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesShopify (NYSE:SHOP) shareholders found out the hard way this week that stock splits aren't much more than financial gimmicks. After several large cap tech companies successfully split shares in the last year, the e-commerce platformexecuted a large share split and the stock has continued on to recent lows. My investment thesis is more Neutral on Shopify until the retail shakeout ends, but the stock valuation is definitely more appealing here with the stock down over 80% from the highs.Stock SplitJust about anyone with basic investment knowledge knows a stock split provides no economic benefit to shareholders. A stock split can cause further momentum higher in a bullish trending stock just as a reverse split can create more downside from a bearish trending stock. Either way, an investor still has the same ownership position in the company as before the stock split just more shares in this case.Shopify completed a 10-for-1 split on June 29. During the COVID e-commerce surge, the stock traded to a high of $1,763 where a split was probably warranted to make trading by retail investors and options more accessible. The stock though has collapsed prior to the split and now the company finds shares trading down at $31 and possibly heading into the $20s.Source: FinVizConsidering stock price levels are considered a matter of strength, Shopify trading back down into the $20s doesn't throw off the best vibes. If the stock was to head much lower, Shopify might regret such a large split that once appeared logical when a 10-for-1 split would've left the stock still trading above $100.Not Done GrowingThe e-commerce infrastructure platform providing retailers with the solutions to operate online still expects to report strong growth in the years ahead. The retail sector is struggling right now evidenced by the weak numbers from Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY), yet the market is extrapolating these results far into the future. A lot the current weakness is due to COVID pull forward making the comps difficult despite retailers still reporting solid numbers compared to 2019.Shopify saw explosive growth during 2020 and early 2021 as retailers flocked to the platform looking for any solution to conduct sales online. With the company providing an alternative to selling goods on Amazon (AMZN), Shopify was in hot demand. The company saw the growth rate peak at 110% in Q1'21 making the recently reported quarterly results impressive to generate additional 22% sales growth on top of those growth rates. Shopify only reported Q1'19 revenues of $320 million and hit $1.2 billion in Q1'22 for 275% growth over the period.Data by YChartsAs the company discussed with investors, GMV growth was supercharged over the COVID shutdown period. Shopify reporting any growth in 2022 is actually very impressive.Source: Shopify Q1'22 presentationThe market doesn't really care due to either investors losing interest when growth stories struggle or algos running wild with decelerating growth. Either way, the stock now trades at the lowest trailing P/S ratio since Shopify went public at 8.7x sales. The stock valuation got carried away at the peak along with most tech stocks.Data by YChartsThe stock trades at ~5x 2023 sales targets of $7.7 billion. With a cash balance of $7.25 billion with net cash of ~$6.34 billion, Shopify has an impressive balance sheet to fund future growth initiatives.The Deliverr deal will require Shopify spend $1.7 billion in cash to pay for the deal to acquire the fulfillment technology provider. Prior to the Deliverr deal, the Shopify enterprise value is only 4x sales estimates providing one of the better prices to own the stock since going public while the prospects for growth remain strong. A lot of the analyst estimates have the company returning to 30% growth rates once the normalization period ends in 2023.Shopify was profitable in Q1'22, though the company is scraping the bottom of profitability during the current period. The e-commerce platform has continued to invest in building out the platform despite the reduced growth rates. Regardless, Shopify has the cash balance and income to survive and thrive the current downturn in the retail sector.TakeawayThe key investor takeaway is that the stock split gimmick definitely didn't work for Shopify. The stock had no momentum heading into the split and the lack of economic value for shareholders just provided more shares to sell. As the stock bottoms out over the next quarter, investors should look into acquiring shares of the e-commerce platform leader at a far more reasonable valuation now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048899264,"gmtCreate":1656174133358,"gmtModify":1676535780049,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"One of the best, if not the best teachers when it comes to investing","listText":"One of the best, if not the best teachers when it comes to investing","text":"One of the best, if not the best teachers when it comes to investing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048899264","repostId":"1191010488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191010488","pubTimestamp":1656202469,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191010488?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-26 08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191010488","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as theS&P 500 was on its way to a 35% dipthat bottomed in 1942. Since then, he's managed through 12 more bear markets not including this one.Despite those downturns, Buffett has managed to create billions in value for himself and the shareholders of the company he runs,Berkshire Hathaway. If any investor is qualified to share wisdom on investing in bear markets, it's Buffett.So it m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as the S&amp;P 500 was on its way to a 35% dip that bottomed in 1942. Since then, he&#39;s managed through 12 more bear markets not including this one.</p><p>Despite those downturns, Buffett has managed to create billions in value for himself and the shareholders of the company he runs, Berkshire Hathaway. If any investor is qualified to share wisdom on investing in bear markets, it&#39;s Buffett.</p><p>So it makes sense to lean on his expertise to get through this tough climate with your wealth intact, right? To get you started, here are four of Buffett&#39;s famous rules for investing in a bear market.</p><p>1. Buy quality merchandise on sale</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Whether we&#39;re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Buffett invests in high-quality businesses -- companies with a proven ability to create shareholder value through all economic climates. In his view, bear markets provide opportunities to buy these quality stocks at lower prices.</p><p>As an example, Buffett&#39;s response earlier this year to the tech stock sell-off was to buy more of his favorite technology company, Apple. Although Apple already comprised more than 40% of Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s portfolio, Buffett bought another 3.78 million shares.</p><p>You can mimic his strategy by identifying stocks you love for their long-term prospects. If your budget allows, increase your investing activity and pad your share counts while prices remain low.</p><p>2. Hold forever</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Our favorite holding period is forever.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>When you buy stocks you&#39;d like to hold forever, bear markets become far less stressful. Since your plan is to hold for the long run, you don&#39;t have to do anything when the market goes sideways. No reshuffling your portfolio and no guessing when share prices will bottom out. Your only job is to wait.</p><p>3. Stay calm</p><blockquote><i>&#34;The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>It&#39;s normal and useful to second-guess your &#34;hold forever&#34; plan when circumstances change. Certainly, there will be times when you should drop a stock you thought was a keeper.</p><p>The distinction you must make is whether circumstances have changed permanently or temporarily. And that&#39;s easier to do when you can analyze what&#39;s happening calmly and rationally. If you let your emotions take over, they can convince you to scrap your plan, cut your losses, or take some other dramatic action that&#39;s sure to dampen your long-term returns.</p><p>4. Keep your distance</p><p>Buffett said this when asked what advice he had for investors in tough markets:<i>&#34;I would tell them: Don&#39;t watch the market too closely.&#34;</i></p><p>Let&#39;s say you&#39;re confident that your &#34;hold forever&#34; stocks can withstand a temporary bear market. And for that reason, you&#39;re not going to react to falling share prices. In that scenario, what&#39;s the benefit of tracking every bump along the way? There isn&#39;t one.</p><p>It&#39;s OK to keep some distance from financial headlines when the market is going crazy. Consider it a survival strategy that helps you stay calm and stick to your investing plan.</p><p>Buy or do nothing</p><p>When a bear market sets in, you&#39;ll see Buffett mostly buy or hold. If you&#39;re questioning whether those are the right moves for your portfolio, remember this: Buffett is worth about $95 billion, and he has invested through more bear markets than almost anyone. His tactics can help you emerge from this bear market stronger and wealthier than ever.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-26 08:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1943735/how-to-pick-great-value-stocks-like-warren-buffett?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID01-txt-1943735><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as the S&P 500 was on its way to a 35% dip that bottomed in 1942. Since then, he's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1943735/how-to-pick-great-value-stocks-like-warren-buffett?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID01-txt-1943735\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1943735/how-to-pick-great-value-stocks-like-warren-buffett?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID01-txt-1943735","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191010488","content_text":"Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as the S&P 500 was on its way to a 35% dip that bottomed in 1942. Since then, he's managed through 12 more bear markets not including this one.Despite those downturns, Buffett has managed to create billions in value for himself and the shareholders of the company he runs, Berkshire Hathaway. If any investor is qualified to share wisdom on investing in bear markets, it's Buffett.So it makes sense to lean on his expertise to get through this tough climate with your wealth intact, right? To get you started, here are four of Buffett's famous rules for investing in a bear market.1. Buy quality merchandise on sale\"Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.\"Buffett invests in high-quality businesses -- companies with a proven ability to create shareholder value through all economic climates. In his view, bear markets provide opportunities to buy these quality stocks at lower prices.As an example, Buffett's response earlier this year to the tech stock sell-off was to buy more of his favorite technology company, Apple. Although Apple already comprised more than 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, Buffett bought another 3.78 million shares.You can mimic his strategy by identifying stocks you love for their long-term prospects. If your budget allows, increase your investing activity and pad your share counts while prices remain low.2. Hold forever\"Our favorite holding period is forever.\"When you buy stocks you'd like to hold forever, bear markets become far less stressful. Since your plan is to hold for the long run, you don't have to do anything when the market goes sideways. No reshuffling your portfolio and no guessing when share prices will bottom out. Your only job is to wait.3. Stay calm\"The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.\"It's normal and useful to second-guess your \"hold forever\" plan when circumstances change. Certainly, there will be times when you should drop a stock you thought was a keeper.The distinction you must make is whether circumstances have changed permanently or temporarily. And that's easier to do when you can analyze what's happening calmly and rationally. If you let your emotions take over, they can convince you to scrap your plan, cut your losses, or take some other dramatic action that's sure to dampen your long-term returns.4. Keep your distanceBuffett said this when asked what advice he had for investors in tough markets:\"I would tell them: Don't watch the market too closely.\"Let's say you're confident that your \"hold forever\" stocks can withstand a temporary bear market. And for that reason, you're not going to react to falling share prices. In that scenario, what's the benefit of tracking every bump along the way? There isn't one.It's OK to keep some distance from financial headlines when the market is going crazy. Consider it a survival strategy that helps you stay calm and stick to your investing plan.Buy or do nothingWhen a bear market sets in, you'll see Buffett mostly buy or hold. If you're questioning whether those are the right moves for your portfolio, remember this: Buffett is worth about $95 billion, and he has invested through more bear markets than almost anyone. His tactics can help you emerge from this bear market stronger and wealthier than ever.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071338485,"gmtCreate":1657473700447,"gmtModify":1676536011402,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read!&nbsp;","listText":"Good read!&nbsp;","text":"Good read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071338485","repostId":"2250399643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2250399643","pubTimestamp":1657423895,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250399643?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-10 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Is Destined To Double","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250399643","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"What happened?Ford’s (NYSE:F) stock price has plummeted 50% over the past 6 months.Ford Performance ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>What happened?</h2><p>Ford’s (NYSE:F) stock price has plummeted 50% over the past 6 months.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/790828-1657321448394048.jpg\" tg-width=\"291\" tg-height=\"142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ford Performance (Finviz)</p><p>There was little to no upside breakouts along the way.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/790828-16573214858822029.jpg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ford Current Chart (Finviz)</p><p>Even so, the stock is up 4% for the week and just recently broke out above the top of the downtrend channel.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/790828-16573215212417614.jpg\" tg-width=\"261\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Recent Breakout (Finviz)</p><p>The recent upside push in the stock has actually occurred in the face of some negative news breaking as well. As reported by Seeking Alpha news:</p><blockquote><i>“During the second quarter, Ford sold a mere 120,000 vehicles in Greater China marking a ~22% year-over-year decline led by rising COVID cases and ongoing global supply chain problems. The sales indicated the worst since Q1 of 2020 (89K units) when government COVID restrictions halted the production in the country.”</i></blockquote><p>Even so, a selloff based on macro factors, such as COVID breakouts and supply chain issues, often creates an opportunity to buy stock in a solid company with sound prospects. I submit this is the case we have with Ford. The stock presents an excellent long-term growth buying opportunity at present. Let me explain.</p><h2>Ford well positioned for growth</h2><p>The Ford F-150 Lightning is now officially in production. I have done my research on the truck and it is awesome. Ford CEO Jim Farley stated:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;The company is not joking around by saying the electric F-150 lightning could be as big a product for the automaker as the Model T back in 1908.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Ford plans to scale production of the F-150 Lightning even faster than competitors, with plans to boost manufacturing of the Lightning at a plant in Dearborn to 150,000 units in the next year, up from an initial target of 40,000 vehicles.</p><p>What&#39;s more, Ford has secured the lithium-ion batteries needed to meet its expected level of production of 150,000 units next year. Moreover, the company plans to prioritize supplies of semiconductor chips toward the F-150 Lightning.</p><p>Markets can stay irrational longer than most can stay solvent. Especially in times such as these where inflation is running rampant and the Fed &#34;put&#34; has been effectively removed. As a grizzled veteran investor who has successfully navigated the 2000, and 2008 bubbles and subsequent crashes, I have developed a disciplined strategy for building new positions. Here is how.</p><h2>Investing in turbulent times</h2><p>I started out my adult life as a Winter Warrior in the US Army&#39;s famed 10th Mountain Division to earn the money for college. As the largest &#34;Winter Warrior&#34; in the unit, I was given one of the larger weapons to hump. My weapon was the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon, or SAW, an individually portable light machine gun. You must only fire the weapon in short 6-8 round bursts so it doesn’t overheat. You should build new positions in the same manner. Let me explain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/790828-1657321708306152.jpg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Winter Warfare Training Ft. Drum, New York (10th Mountain)</p><p>A mistake I made many times in my younger days was to plunk down the entire allocation for a new position in one buy. I felt so confident the stock had seen the low, I wanted to be sure and maximize my upside. This was a huge mistake. I have learned to be patient over the years when building a new position. You must layer in to new positions over time. Moreover, the higher the level of macro market volatility, the greater the number of tranches you should use to create a position. Always layer in to new positions over time to reduce risk. What’s more, have a plan for building the position. Let me explain.</p><h3>Have a plan for creating a new position</h3><p>I have found one way to improve my performance over the years is to set up a plan for any new positions I create. I set predetermined buy limit orders at lower prices that will significantly improve my basis for a series of tranches. After each tranche executes, I take some time and, reassess, and set up new buy limit orders according to my new targets. Another reason I am picking up shares now is the fact I believe if we aren’t at the low, we are darn close and Recession fears have gotten out of control.</p><h3>Recession fears overblown</h3><p>After doing due diligence on past recessionary cycles and the respective effects on the markets in general, I surmise the potential coming recession will be a short and shallow one, even with a hard landing, for several reasons. Firstly, the average drop in the S&amp;P 500 during the past 12 recessions since World War ll was 30%. We&#39;re currently down 20% already, so about two thirds of the recession&#39;s potential downside effect on the market is already priced in by historical standards. And Ford is down more than that at 50%. So, I employing Sir John Templeton’s strategy of “Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.”</p><h3>Invest at the point of maximum pessimism</h3><p>One of my favorite quotes from investing icon Sir John Templeton is the following:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Templeton is known as a contrarian investor. He referred to his investment philosophy as &#34;bargain hunting.&#34; Templeton&#39;s guiding principle was:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Search for companies that offered low prices and an excellent long-term outlook.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>I feel this statement perfectly illustrates where Ford&#39;s stock lies right now. The reward far outweighs the risk at this time with the stock down 50% on factors that are bound to improve over time. The stock is under-owned and oversold presently. In the following sections I make my case. This only works if you have courage in your convictions and can sleep well at night. I can with Ford.</p><h3>Bear markets throughout history</h3><p>Can anyone guess how many times the market has bounced back after a steep sell off such as the one happening now? The answer is every time. Right now, bearish sentiment at record highs. This exactly the time to strike. Here is why.</p><h3>Are you playing chess or checkers?</h3><p>I see those selling out now as classic cases of first-level thinking. A first level thinker sells stocks as they fall and buys stocks when things are going well. The fact of the matter is in order to be truly successful; you have to do the exact opposite. Think of first-level thinking as checkers, second-level thinking as chess. Warren Buffett&#39;s quote &#34;Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful&#34; is a classic example of second level thinking.</p><h3>The contrarian&#39;s code</h3><p>Times of market turmoil often present the best buying opportunities for savvy investors. Contrarians find their best investment opportunities during times of market duress while others are panic selling. Nonetheless, the underlying stock needs to have a solid growth story and strong fundamentals. Ford fits the bill of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater. I see Ford doubling within the next couple of years. Here is why.</p><h3>Ford&#39;s solid fundamentals</h3><p>First of all, Ford is basically trading for a song at the present valuation. Ford&#39;s forward P/E of 5.41 is approximately a third of the current S&amp;P 500 forward P/E of 16. The stock is incredibly trading for book value with $10 in cash per share on the balance sheet, talk about margin of safety. Moreover Seeking Alpha&#39;s Quant analysis rates Ford a Buy with A scores for valuation, growth, and profitability.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/790828-1657321978484646.jpg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ford Quant Analysis (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>If ever there was a bargain basement buying opportunity in Ford, this is it. Nevertheless, there are always downside risks to any thesis or investment. Please review the following.</p><h3>Potential Downside Risks</h3><p>It would be remiss of me not to include the positional downside risks as no investment comes without risk. Even so, the higher the risk the higher the reward. The following is a list of downside risks as I see them.</p><ul><li>A decline in Ford&#39;s market share.</li><li>Lower-than-anticipated market acceptance of Ford&#39;s new or existing products.</li><li>Further issues with chip supply.</li><li>China&#39;s economy not coming back online.</li><li>Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates.</li><li>Inflation continuing to rise causing a recession leading to a further selloff.</li></ul><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>Our innate instincts encourage us to depart a sinking ship. This survival tactic impacts the way we invest. The herd running for the door is what creates the opportunity to buy a fundamentally solid company like Ford with sound prospects at a discount. Hopefully, you have some dry powder and a long-term time horizon and take advantage. Moreover, after years of diligent work, the company has obtained a fortress balance sheet and solid cash flow. Those are my thoughts on the matter I look forward to reading yours.</p><h3>Your input is required!</h3><p>The true value of my articles is provided by the prescient remarks from Seeking Alpha members in the comments section below. Do you think Ford is a Buy at current levels? Why or why not? Thank you in advance for your participation.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Is Destined To Double</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Is Destined To Double\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-10 11:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522484-ford-stock-destined-to-double><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happened?Ford’s (NYSE:F) stock price has plummeted 50% over the past 6 months.Ford Performance (Finviz)There was little to no upside breakouts along the way.Ford Current Chart (Finviz)Even so, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522484-ford-stock-destined-to-double\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522484-ford-stock-destined-to-double","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2250399643","content_text":"What happened?Ford’s (NYSE:F) stock price has plummeted 50% over the past 6 months.Ford Performance (Finviz)There was little to no upside breakouts along the way.Ford Current Chart (Finviz)Even so, the stock is up 4% for the week and just recently broke out above the top of the downtrend channel.Recent Breakout (Finviz)The recent upside push in the stock has actually occurred in the face of some negative news breaking as well. As reported by Seeking Alpha news:“During the second quarter, Ford sold a mere 120,000 vehicles in Greater China marking a ~22% year-over-year decline led by rising COVID cases and ongoing global supply chain problems. The sales indicated the worst since Q1 of 2020 (89K units) when government COVID restrictions halted the production in the country.”Even so, a selloff based on macro factors, such as COVID breakouts and supply chain issues, often creates an opportunity to buy stock in a solid company with sound prospects. I submit this is the case we have with Ford. The stock presents an excellent long-term growth buying opportunity at present. Let me explain.Ford well positioned for growthThe Ford F-150 Lightning is now officially in production. I have done my research on the truck and it is awesome. Ford CEO Jim Farley stated:\"The company is not joking around by saying the electric F-150 lightning could be as big a product for the automaker as the Model T back in 1908.\"Ford plans to scale production of the F-150 Lightning even faster than competitors, with plans to boost manufacturing of the Lightning at a plant in Dearborn to 150,000 units in the next year, up from an initial target of 40,000 vehicles.What's more, Ford has secured the lithium-ion batteries needed to meet its expected level of production of 150,000 units next year. Moreover, the company plans to prioritize supplies of semiconductor chips toward the F-150 Lightning.Markets can stay irrational longer than most can stay solvent. Especially in times such as these where inflation is running rampant and the Fed \"put\" has been effectively removed. As a grizzled veteran investor who has successfully navigated the 2000, and 2008 bubbles and subsequent crashes, I have developed a disciplined strategy for building new positions. Here is how.Investing in turbulent timesI started out my adult life as a Winter Warrior in the US Army's famed 10th Mountain Division to earn the money for college. As the largest \"Winter Warrior\" in the unit, I was given one of the larger weapons to hump. My weapon was the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon, or SAW, an individually portable light machine gun. You must only fire the weapon in short 6-8 round bursts so it doesn’t overheat. You should build new positions in the same manner. Let me explain.Winter Warfare Training Ft. Drum, New York (10th Mountain)A mistake I made many times in my younger days was to plunk down the entire allocation for a new position in one buy. I felt so confident the stock had seen the low, I wanted to be sure and maximize my upside. This was a huge mistake. I have learned to be patient over the years when building a new position. You must layer in to new positions over time. Moreover, the higher the level of macro market volatility, the greater the number of tranches you should use to create a position. Always layer in to new positions over time to reduce risk. What’s more, have a plan for building the position. Let me explain.Have a plan for creating a new positionI have found one way to improve my performance over the years is to set up a plan for any new positions I create. I set predetermined buy limit orders at lower prices that will significantly improve my basis for a series of tranches. After each tranche executes, I take some time and, reassess, and set up new buy limit orders according to my new targets. Another reason I am picking up shares now is the fact I believe if we aren’t at the low, we are darn close and Recession fears have gotten out of control.Recession fears overblownAfter doing due diligence on past recessionary cycles and the respective effects on the markets in general, I surmise the potential coming recession will be a short and shallow one, even with a hard landing, for several reasons. Firstly, the average drop in the S&P 500 during the past 12 recessions since World War ll was 30%. We're currently down 20% already, so about two thirds of the recession's potential downside effect on the market is already priced in by historical standards. And Ford is down more than that at 50%. So, I employing Sir John Templeton’s strategy of “Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.”Invest at the point of maximum pessimismOne of my favorite quotes from investing icon Sir John Templeton is the following:\"Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.\"Templeton is known as a contrarian investor. He referred to his investment philosophy as \"bargain hunting.\" Templeton's guiding principle was:\"Search for companies that offered low prices and an excellent long-term outlook.\"I feel this statement perfectly illustrates where Ford's stock lies right now. The reward far outweighs the risk at this time with the stock down 50% on factors that are bound to improve over time. The stock is under-owned and oversold presently. In the following sections I make my case. This only works if you have courage in your convictions and can sleep well at night. I can with Ford.Bear markets throughout historyCan anyone guess how many times the market has bounced back after a steep sell off such as the one happening now? The answer is every time. Right now, bearish sentiment at record highs. This exactly the time to strike. Here is why.Are you playing chess or checkers?I see those selling out now as classic cases of first-level thinking. A first level thinker sells stocks as they fall and buys stocks when things are going well. The fact of the matter is in order to be truly successful; you have to do the exact opposite. Think of first-level thinking as checkers, second-level thinking as chess. Warren Buffett's quote \"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful\" is a classic example of second level thinking.The contrarian's codeTimes of market turmoil often present the best buying opportunities for savvy investors. Contrarians find their best investment opportunities during times of market duress while others are panic selling. Nonetheless, the underlying stock needs to have a solid growth story and strong fundamentals. Ford fits the bill of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater. I see Ford doubling within the next couple of years. Here is why.Ford's solid fundamentalsFirst of all, Ford is basically trading for a song at the present valuation. Ford's forward P/E of 5.41 is approximately a third of the current S&P 500 forward P/E of 16. The stock is incredibly trading for book value with $10 in cash per share on the balance sheet, talk about margin of safety. Moreover Seeking Alpha's Quant analysis rates Ford a Buy with A scores for valuation, growth, and profitability.Ford Quant Analysis (Seeking Alpha)If ever there was a bargain basement buying opportunity in Ford, this is it. Nevertheless, there are always downside risks to any thesis or investment. Please review the following.Potential Downside RisksIt would be remiss of me not to include the positional downside risks as no investment comes without risk. Even so, the higher the risk the higher the reward. The following is a list of downside risks as I see them.A decline in Ford's market share.Lower-than-anticipated market acceptance of Ford's new or existing products.Further issues with chip supply.China's economy not coming back online.Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates.Inflation continuing to rise causing a recession leading to a further selloff.The Bottom LineOur innate instincts encourage us to depart a sinking ship. This survival tactic impacts the way we invest. The herd running for the door is what creates the opportunity to buy a fundamentally solid company like Ford with sound prospects at a discount. Hopefully, you have some dry powder and a long-term time horizon and take advantage. Moreover, after years of diligent work, the company has obtained a fortress balance sheet and solid cash flow. Those are my thoughts on the matter I look forward to reading yours.Your input is required!The true value of my articles is provided by the prescient remarks from Seeking Alpha members in the comments section below. Do you think Ford is a Buy at current levels? Why or why not? Thank you in advance for your participation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9041488874,"gmtCreate":1656086010198,"gmtModify":1676535765297,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Now is a good time to get your toes wet, then buy when the real recession hits. Apple issuch a household name its very hard to see it not be a long term success/stock for the future","listText":"Now is a good time to get your toes wet, then buy when the real recession hits. Apple issuch a household name its very hard to see it not be a long term success/stock for the future","text":"Now is a good time to get your toes wet, then buy when the real recession hits. Apple issuch a household name its very hard to see it not be a long term success/stock for the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9041488874","repostId":"2245311224","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2245311224","pubTimestamp":1656058978,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2245311224?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-24 16:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Now A Good Time To Buy Apple Stock As It Dips?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2245311224","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryApple's shares have lost a quarter of their value year-to-date in 2022, and AAPL now trades a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Apple&#39;s shares have lost a quarter of their value year-to-date in 2022, and AAPL now trades at 22.0 times forward P/E, which is close to its five-year historical average.</li><li>A key share price driver for AAPL in the near term will be supply-side headwinds turning out to be less severe than feared, as seen with reduced product lead times.</li><li>Apple is a Buy now, as the stock should command higher valuation multiples with an improvement in profitability over time driven by higher services revenue contribution.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f69d8740cc2bafe8656b09f1d0bcff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Ivan-balvan/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Elevator Pitch</b></p><p>My investment rating for Apple Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares is a Buy. I did a comparison of Apple and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) in my previous April 6, 2022, article, and determined that AAPL was the better buy. In this latest update for AAPL, I analyze whether a buying opportunity for Apple has emerged as a result of the pullback in the company&#39;s share price year-to-date in 2022.</p><p>This is a good time to buy Apple&#39;s stock, as the dip in its share price year-to-date has made its valuations more attractive with its forward P/E multiple reverting close to its five-year historical mean. There is room for AAPL&#39;s valuation multiples to expand in tandem with higher profit margins resulting from a superior sales mix tilted towards services.</p><p>AAPL Stock Basics</p><p>Prior to touching on AAPL&#39;s stock price correction, valuations, and outlook, it is relevant to revisit the basics for Apple. In other words, I will be discussing the company&#39;s business model and the investment thesis for the stock in the current section of this article.</p><p>Apple&#39;s business model is to continue expanding the installed base for its flagship hardware device, the iPhone, and cross-sell other hardware products and services to its iPhone users.</p><p>At the company&#39;s earnings call for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 (YE September 30) on January 27, 2022, Apple disclosed that its &#34;installed base of active devices&#34; has set &#34;a new all-time record of 1.8 billion devices.&#34; AAPL updated investors at its Q2 FY 2022 results briefing on April 28, 2022, that the company&#39;s &#34;installed base (of active devices) has continued to grow&#34;, while noting that &#34;the iPhone active installed base reached &#34;a new all-time high.&#34; According to the Business of Apps website&#39;s compilation of data on AAPL, the number of active iPhones (excluding other hardware devices such as iPads) on a worldwide basis had already crossed the 1.2 billion mark by the end of last year.</p><p>The investment thesis for AAPL is closely linked to its business model. Revenue for Apple&#39;s services like the App Store is expected to grow over time in tandem with the increase in the installed base for AAPL&#39;s iPhones and other hardware devices. This should translate into higher profit margins and faster earnings growth for Apple in the medium to long term, as AAPL benefits from a more favorable revenue mix with a rising proportion of sales contribution from higher-margin services.</p><p>The gross profit margin for Apple&#39;s services segment was 72.6% in Q2 FY 2022, which was twice that of the products segment&#39;s gross margin of 36.4% in the same quarter as highlighted at its most recent quarterly investor call. Also, AAPL only derived approximately 20% of its total Q2 FY 2022 revenue from services as per its quarterly earnings press release, so there is room for the company to further optimize its sales mix with a bias towards growing revenue contribution from services at a faster pace.</p><p>In the next section, I focus on Apple&#39;s stock price decline thus far this year.</p><p><b>Why Did Apple Stock Drop?</b></p><p>Apple&#39;s stock price dropped by -25.6% in 2022 thus far, and it underperformed the S&amp;P 500 which was down by -21.0% during the same period.</p><p><b>AAPL&#39;s 2022 Year-to-date Share Price Chart</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39057828144a7f0bc9c470f048173d9e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>AAPL&#39;s share price weakness is partly attributed to the correction in the broader stock market and technology stocks as a result of investors&#39; worries over higher-than-expected inflation and a potential recession. But there are also company-specific factors that have driven a decline in Apple&#39;s stock price.</p><p>In the past three months, the Q3 FY 2022 consensus earnings per share estimate for Apple has been reduced by -7.5%. Specifically, 25 of the 44 Wall Street analysts covering AAPL&#39;s shares lowered their third-quarter EPS forecasts for the company in the last three months. This is consistent with Apple&#39;s forward-looking management guidance.</p><p>At its Q2 FY 2022 earnings briefing, AAPL had guided for a $4-$8 billion hit to its third-quarter revenue resulting from &#34;COVID-related disruptions (more specifically lockdowns in China) and industry-wide silicon shortages.&#34; The company also highlighted that it expects unfavorable exchange rate fluctuations and the suspension of sales in Russia to impact the YoY growth for its Q3 FY 2022 top line by -3.0 percentage points and -1.5 percentage points, respectively.</p><p>In the next section I touch on whether Apple&#39;s valuations have become more attractive after the year-to-date pull-back in its share price.</p><p><b>Is Apple Stock A Good Value Now?</b></p><p>Following the -25% decline in its stock price thus far this year, Apple&#39;s consensus forward next twelve months&#39; normalized P/E multiple has compressed from its 2022 year-to-date peak of 31.9 times as of January 3, 2022, to 22.0 times as of June 22, as per<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>.</p><p>AAPL is currently trading at 22.0 times forward P/E, which is roughly on par with its five-year mean forward P/E multiple of 21.4 times. When the short-term headwinds (as discussed in the preceding section) eventually ease and the company manages to achieve a more optimal sales mix biased towards higher-margin services in the future, Apple should be able to trade at the high end of its five-year forward P/E valuation range (AAPL&#39;s peak forward P/E multiple in the last five years was 36.6 times) again.</p><p>In conclusion, I think Apple&#39;s stock is good value now, considering its historical valuations and future profitability outlook.</p><p><b>Is Apple Expected To Rise Again?</b></p><p>I am of the opinion that Apple&#39;s stock price is expected to rise again in the short term.</p><p>According to JPMorgan&#39;s (JPM) &#34;Global Product Availability Lead Time Tracker&#34; research report (not publicly available) published on June 19, 2022, the worldwide &#34;lead times in general moderated for Mac and iPads&#34; for the week ended June 17, 2022, which the JPM analysts highlight is &#34;in line with the reopening in China.&#34; Also, JPM&#39;s recent research work found that the current lead times for AAPL&#39;s other products such as the iPhone stayed low at below a week.</p><p>This is consistent with the findings from another bank&#39;s research team. Morgan Stanley (MS) published its North American IT hardware &#34;Monthly Data Tracker&#34; report (not publicly available) on June 22, 2022, which noted that the lead time for the iPad decreased from 15 days as of June 9, 2022, to 14 days as of June 16, 2022. Similarly, the MS analysts&#39; research work suggests that the lead time for the MacBook Pro M1 declined from 62 days to 56 days over the same period.</p><p>In my view, an easing of supply chain constraints as evidenced by the improvement in lead times mentioned above should be a positive re-rating catalyst for Apple in the short term.</p><p><b>What Is The Long-Term Prediction For Apple Stock?</b></p><p>The key aspect of any long-term financial predictions for Apple is the potential improvement in the company&#39;s profitability. As I discussed earlier in this article, a growing percentage of sales derived from higher-margin services should result in an expansion of Apple&#39;s profit margins in the long run. Based on financial projections sourced from<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>, AAPL&#39;s gross profit margin is forecasted to increase from 41.8% in fiscal 2021 to 43.5% by FY 2026.</p><p>The market&#39;s expectations of increased services revenue contribution and improved profitability are reasonable. Apple has been putting in a huge amount of effort to make it easier for the company to cross-sell additional hardware devices and services to its iPhone users as seen with its recent press release.</p><p>On June 6, 2022, Apple revealed the features of its new operating system for the iPhone (iOS16), and also disclosed the introduction of two new laptops.</p><p>In this announcement, AAPL explained that certain &#34;new features for Apple&#39;s Macs and iPads are designed to make it easier to sync with the iPhone.&#34; As an example, the iPhone can be utilized as &#34;a webcam&#34; for &#34;video calls&#34; on Macs going forward, as highlighted in an article published by The Verge on the same day of Apple&#39;s announcement.</p><p>Separately, Apple&#39;s new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro devices will come with Apple&#39;s M2 chip. The company noted in the June 6, 2022, announcement that this is aligned with its goal of &#34;helping people toggle from one Apple device to another.&#34;</p><p>In summary, AAPL is moving in the right direction with new initiatives to enhance integration across the company&#39;s various hardware products, which will increase user switching costs and boost cross-selling efforts (for other hardware devices and services). I predict that this should eventually lead to higher profit margins (consensus FY 2026 gross margin of 43.5%) and an expansion of valuation multiples (current forward P/E multiple of 22.0 times versus five-year P/E of 36.6 times) for Apple.</p><p><b>Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p>AAPL stock is a Buy. Apple&#39;s current P/E valuations are undemanding, and there are both short-term catalysts (easing of supply chain constraints) and long-term drivers (profitability improvement) for the company&#39;s shares.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Now A Good Time To Buy Apple Stock As It Dips?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Now A Good Time To Buy Apple Stock As It Dips?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-24 16:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519942-is-now-good-time-buy-apple-stock?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A12><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple's shares have lost a quarter of their value year-to-date in 2022, and AAPL now trades at 22.0 times forward P/E, which is close to its five-year historical average.A key share price ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519942-is-now-good-time-buy-apple-stock?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A12\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519942-is-now-good-time-buy-apple-stock?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Atrending_articles%7Cline%3A12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2245311224","content_text":"SummaryApple's shares have lost a quarter of their value year-to-date in 2022, and AAPL now trades at 22.0 times forward P/E, which is close to its five-year historical average.A key share price driver for AAPL in the near term will be supply-side headwinds turning out to be less severe than feared, as seen with reduced product lead times.Apple is a Buy now, as the stock should command higher valuation multiples with an improvement in profitability over time driven by higher services revenue contribution.Ivan-balvan/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesElevator PitchMy investment rating for Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares is a Buy. I did a comparison of Apple and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) in my previous April 6, 2022, article, and determined that AAPL was the better buy. In this latest update for AAPL, I analyze whether a buying opportunity for Apple has emerged as a result of the pullback in the company's share price year-to-date in 2022.This is a good time to buy Apple's stock, as the dip in its share price year-to-date has made its valuations more attractive with its forward P/E multiple reverting close to its five-year historical mean. There is room for AAPL's valuation multiples to expand in tandem with higher profit margins resulting from a superior sales mix tilted towards services.AAPL Stock BasicsPrior to touching on AAPL's stock price correction, valuations, and outlook, it is relevant to revisit the basics for Apple. In other words, I will be discussing the company's business model and the investment thesis for the stock in the current section of this article.Apple's business model is to continue expanding the installed base for its flagship hardware device, the iPhone, and cross-sell other hardware products and services to its iPhone users.At the company's earnings call for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 (YE September 30) on January 27, 2022, Apple disclosed that its \"installed base of active devices\" has set \"a new all-time record of 1.8 billion devices.\" AAPL updated investors at its Q2 FY 2022 results briefing on April 28, 2022, that the company's \"installed base (of active devices) has continued to grow\", while noting that \"the iPhone active installed base reached \"a new all-time high.\" According to the Business of Apps website's compilation of data on AAPL, the number of active iPhones (excluding other hardware devices such as iPads) on a worldwide basis had already crossed the 1.2 billion mark by the end of last year.The investment thesis for AAPL is closely linked to its business model. Revenue for Apple's services like the App Store is expected to grow over time in tandem with the increase in the installed base for AAPL's iPhones and other hardware devices. This should translate into higher profit margins and faster earnings growth for Apple in the medium to long term, as AAPL benefits from a more favorable revenue mix with a rising proportion of sales contribution from higher-margin services.The gross profit margin for Apple's services segment was 72.6% in Q2 FY 2022, which was twice that of the products segment's gross margin of 36.4% in the same quarter as highlighted at its most recent quarterly investor call. Also, AAPL only derived approximately 20% of its total Q2 FY 2022 revenue from services as per its quarterly earnings press release, so there is room for the company to further optimize its sales mix with a bias towards growing revenue contribution from services at a faster pace.In the next section, I focus on Apple's stock price decline thus far this year.Why Did Apple Stock Drop?Apple's stock price dropped by -25.6% in 2022 thus far, and it underperformed the S&P 500 which was down by -21.0% during the same period.AAPL's 2022 Year-to-date Share Price ChartSeeking AlphaAAPL's share price weakness is partly attributed to the correction in the broader stock market and technology stocks as a result of investors' worries over higher-than-expected inflation and a potential recession. But there are also company-specific factors that have driven a decline in Apple's stock price.In the past three months, the Q3 FY 2022 consensus earnings per share estimate for Apple has been reduced by -7.5%. Specifically, 25 of the 44 Wall Street analysts covering AAPL's shares lowered their third-quarter EPS forecasts for the company in the last three months. This is consistent with Apple's forward-looking management guidance.At its Q2 FY 2022 earnings briefing, AAPL had guided for a $4-$8 billion hit to its third-quarter revenue resulting from \"COVID-related disruptions (more specifically lockdowns in China) and industry-wide silicon shortages.\" The company also highlighted that it expects unfavorable exchange rate fluctuations and the suspension of sales in Russia to impact the YoY growth for its Q3 FY 2022 top line by -3.0 percentage points and -1.5 percentage points, respectively.In the next section I touch on whether Apple's valuations have become more attractive after the year-to-date pull-back in its share price.Is Apple Stock A Good Value Now?Following the -25% decline in its stock price thus far this year, Apple's consensus forward next twelve months' normalized P/E multiple has compressed from its 2022 year-to-date peak of 31.9 times as of January 3, 2022, to 22.0 times as of June 22, as perS&P Capital IQ.AAPL is currently trading at 22.0 times forward P/E, which is roughly on par with its five-year mean forward P/E multiple of 21.4 times. When the short-term headwinds (as discussed in the preceding section) eventually ease and the company manages to achieve a more optimal sales mix biased towards higher-margin services in the future, Apple should be able to trade at the high end of its five-year forward P/E valuation range (AAPL's peak forward P/E multiple in the last five years was 36.6 times) again.In conclusion, I think Apple's stock is good value now, considering its historical valuations and future profitability outlook.Is Apple Expected To Rise Again?I am of the opinion that Apple's stock price is expected to rise again in the short term.According to JPMorgan's (JPM) \"Global Product Availability Lead Time Tracker\" research report (not publicly available) published on June 19, 2022, the worldwide \"lead times in general moderated for Mac and iPads\" for the week ended June 17, 2022, which the JPM analysts highlight is \"in line with the reopening in China.\" Also, JPM's recent research work found that the current lead times for AAPL's other products such as the iPhone stayed low at below a week.This is consistent with the findings from another bank's research team. Morgan Stanley (MS) published its North American IT hardware \"Monthly Data Tracker\" report (not publicly available) on June 22, 2022, which noted that the lead time for the iPad decreased from 15 days as of June 9, 2022, to 14 days as of June 16, 2022. Similarly, the MS analysts' research work suggests that the lead time for the MacBook Pro M1 declined from 62 days to 56 days over the same period.In my view, an easing of supply chain constraints as evidenced by the improvement in lead times mentioned above should be a positive re-rating catalyst for Apple in the short term.What Is The Long-Term Prediction For Apple Stock?The key aspect of any long-term financial predictions for Apple is the potential improvement in the company's profitability. As I discussed earlier in this article, a growing percentage of sales derived from higher-margin services should result in an expansion of Apple's profit margins in the long run. Based on financial projections sourced fromS&P Capital IQ, AAPL's gross profit margin is forecasted to increase from 41.8% in fiscal 2021 to 43.5% by FY 2026.The market's expectations of increased services revenue contribution and improved profitability are reasonable. Apple has been putting in a huge amount of effort to make it easier for the company to cross-sell additional hardware devices and services to its iPhone users as seen with its recent press release.On June 6, 2022, Apple revealed the features of its new operating system for the iPhone (iOS16), and also disclosed the introduction of two new laptops.In this announcement, AAPL explained that certain \"new features for Apple's Macs and iPads are designed to make it easier to sync with the iPhone.\" As an example, the iPhone can be utilized as \"a webcam\" for \"video calls\" on Macs going forward, as highlighted in an article published by The Verge on the same day of Apple's announcement.Separately, Apple's new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro devices will come with Apple's M2 chip. The company noted in the June 6, 2022, announcement that this is aligned with its goal of \"helping people toggle from one Apple device to another.\"In summary, AAPL is moving in the right direction with new initiatives to enhance integration across the company's various hardware products, which will increase user switching costs and boost cross-selling efforts (for other hardware devices and services). I predict that this should eventually lead to higher profit margins (consensus FY 2026 gross margin of 43.5%) and an expansion of valuation multiples (current forward P/E multiple of 22.0 times versus five-year P/E of 36.6 times) for Apple.Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?AAPL stock is a Buy. Apple's current P/E valuations are undemanding, and there are both short-term catalysts (easing of supply chain constraints) and long-term drivers (profitability improvement) for the company's shares.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813382067,"gmtCreate":1630131941359,"gmtModify":1676530232673,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Excellent article","listText":"Excellent article","text":"Excellent article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813382067","repostId":"1149850459","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149850459","pubTimestamp":1630048146,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149850459?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-27 15:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Not every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149850459","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nThe stock mar","content":"<p>Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d5fb452d9db7f672a2a9eec51862eb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>The stock market is in a bubble; this is not a secret. Most investors are ignoring it and just infatuated with the ride. They are playing&nbsp;“Fool’s Gambit” —waiting for a greater fool to buy their overvalued stock from them. And why not, greater fools have been showing up in droves for years. Low interest rates inflated the prices of all assets, forcing everyone to take greater and greater risks.</p>\n<p>Then there is pure, unadulterated greed. This market bubble is filled with this “get rich fast” attitude and the fear of missing out; all bubbles are. This time the market has been further deformed by social media, which seems like an enormous amplifier and arguably prolonger of that behavior, bringing what seems an endless supply of incremental buyers (bigger fools).</p>\n<p><b>Market timer’s gambit</b></p>\n<p>Rational people not drunk on greed, who are fine with getting rich slowly, may want to avoid this market altogether.&nbsp; They may play&nbsp;“Market Timer’s Gambit.” Their argument (on the surface) is logical. It goes like this: “I am going to stay on the sidelines for now and will go in after the market dips”.</p>\n<p>There are two problems with this strategy. First, market irrationality can last a long time. Second, though it sounds good in theory, in practice it is difficult to execute.</p>\n<p>Here is an example: Let’s say you went 100% in cash waiting for the market to correct. You waited for a long time and then the market declines 10%. You feel slightly vindicated, but the market really just settled to where it was a few months ago. You have a decision to make: Get in or wait? You are of course prudent, and the market is declining, so you decide to wait.</p>\n<p>The market falls another 10%. You feel a bit more vindicated. Now you feel rewarded for your patience and for the last few years of return you’ve missed out on. But your gut tells you if the market declined 20% and it can go down lower. You wait.</p>\n<p>You were right. The market declines another 10%. Economic news is ugly. The market decline may send the economy into a recession. Or the economy is already in a recession. Now you are worried. You decide to wait.</p>\n<p>The market declines&nbsp;another&nbsp;10%. This cash now feels so dear you don’t want to part with it. You feel like you’ve got this figured out. You tell yourself you’ll invest when the news gets better.</p>\n<p>The news is not getting better. But a strange thing happens. The market has a few strong days. Commentators call them a “dead cat bounce,” expecting further declines. These few strong days are followed by a few more.&nbsp; Suddenly the market has retraced the last 20% of the decline. You feel bad that you didn’t invest two weeks ago (at the now “obvious”) bottom.</p>\n<p>You get the point. Once you are completely out of the market, it is incredibly difficult psychologically to dive back in. I’ve met quite a few people that have stayed out of the market since 2000 and are still waiting for their chance to get in. Just imagine the psychological rollercoaster they went through and the returns they left on the table.</p>\n<p>Even if you got the market timing right once, putting it into a repeatable process is impossible. In addition to getting the timing of the economy right, you have to time the stock market response to the economy. I know many people who timed the market successfully once; I don’t know any who’ve done it twice.</p>\n<p><b>One stock at a time</b></p>\n<p>Investing in the stock market doesn’t need to reside in the extremes of the Fool’s Gambit or the Market Timer’s Gambit. There is a different game available:&nbsp;“One Stock at a Time.”</p>\n<p>Even in this insanely overvalued market not all stocks are overvalued and in search of a greater fool. Armed with patience, a long-term time horizon and our time-tested value investing process, look for high-quality companies, run by great management, that are significantly undervalued (i.e., have a margin of safety).</p>\n<p>This process is not fast and furious and won’t get you rich quickly. It requires mundane work and turning over a lot of rocks. At our firm, we read company financial filings, talk to management, competitors, build our own financial models, debate these investments among ourselves and with our global network of investors.</p>\n<p>Investors can choose from tens of thousands of stocks globally. At our firm, we need only 20 to 30. When we cannot find enough stocks that meet our stringent investment criteria our cash balances go up, then decline as we find new stocks. We don’t time the market; we value individual stocks, buying when they are cheap and selling when they are dear.</p>\n<p>To sum it up: The U.S. stock market today is a dollar bill trading for close to $2 or more. Many stocks are $1 changing hands for $4, $6, $20. But&nbsp;we don’t own the market; instead we have assembled a portfolio of companies priced attractively at 30- to 60-cents on the dollar —&nbsp;one stock at a time.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Not every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNot every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-27 15:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-every-stock-is-in-a-bubble-heres-how-to-find-todays-bargains-and-tomorrows-winners-11630016489?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nThe stock market is in a bubble; this is not a secret. Most investors are ignoring it and just infatuated with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-every-stock-is-in-a-bubble-heres-how-to-find-todays-bargains-and-tomorrows-winners-11630016489?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-every-stock-is-in-a-bubble-heres-how-to-find-todays-bargains-and-tomorrows-winners-11630016489?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149850459","content_text":"Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nThe stock market is in a bubble; this is not a secret. Most investors are ignoring it and just infatuated with the ride. They are playing “Fool’s Gambit” —waiting for a greater fool to buy their overvalued stock from them. And why not, greater fools have been showing up in droves for years. Low interest rates inflated the prices of all assets, forcing everyone to take greater and greater risks.\nThen there is pure, unadulterated greed. This market bubble is filled with this “get rich fast” attitude and the fear of missing out; all bubbles are. This time the market has been further deformed by social media, which seems like an enormous amplifier and arguably prolonger of that behavior, bringing what seems an endless supply of incremental buyers (bigger fools).\nMarket timer’s gambit\nRational people not drunk on greed, who are fine with getting rich slowly, may want to avoid this market altogether.  They may play “Market Timer’s Gambit.” Their argument (on the surface) is logical. It goes like this: “I am going to stay on the sidelines for now and will go in after the market dips”.\nThere are two problems with this strategy. First, market irrationality can last a long time. Second, though it sounds good in theory, in practice it is difficult to execute.\nHere is an example: Let’s say you went 100% in cash waiting for the market to correct. You waited for a long time and then the market declines 10%. You feel slightly vindicated, but the market really just settled to where it was a few months ago. You have a decision to make: Get in or wait? You are of course prudent, and the market is declining, so you decide to wait.\nThe market falls another 10%. You feel a bit more vindicated. Now you feel rewarded for your patience and for the last few years of return you’ve missed out on. But your gut tells you if the market declined 20% and it can go down lower. You wait.\nYou were right. The market declines another 10%. Economic news is ugly. The market decline may send the economy into a recession. Or the economy is already in a recession. Now you are worried. You decide to wait.\nThe market declines another 10%. This cash now feels so dear you don’t want to part with it. You feel like you’ve got this figured out. You tell yourself you’ll invest when the news gets better.\nThe news is not getting better. But a strange thing happens. The market has a few strong days. Commentators call them a “dead cat bounce,” expecting further declines. These few strong days are followed by a few more.  Suddenly the market has retraced the last 20% of the decline. You feel bad that you didn’t invest two weeks ago (at the now “obvious”) bottom.\nYou get the point. Once you are completely out of the market, it is incredibly difficult psychologically to dive back in. I’ve met quite a few people that have stayed out of the market since 2000 and are still waiting for their chance to get in. Just imagine the psychological rollercoaster they went through and the returns they left on the table.\nEven if you got the market timing right once, putting it into a repeatable process is impossible. In addition to getting the timing of the economy right, you have to time the stock market response to the economy. I know many people who timed the market successfully once; I don’t know any who’ve done it twice.\nOne stock at a time\nInvesting in the stock market doesn’t need to reside in the extremes of the Fool’s Gambit or the Market Timer’s Gambit. There is a different game available: “One Stock at a Time.”\nEven in this insanely overvalued market not all stocks are overvalued and in search of a greater fool. Armed with patience, a long-term time horizon and our time-tested value investing process, look for high-quality companies, run by great management, that are significantly undervalued (i.e., have a margin of safety).\nThis process is not fast and furious and won’t get you rich quickly. It requires mundane work and turning over a lot of rocks. At our firm, we read company financial filings, talk to management, competitors, build our own financial models, debate these investments among ourselves and with our global network of investors.\nInvestors can choose from tens of thousands of stocks globally. At our firm, we need only 20 to 30. When we cannot find enough stocks that meet our stringent investment criteria our cash balances go up, then decline as we find new stocks. We don’t time the market; we value individual stocks, buying when they are cheap and selling when they are dear.\nTo sum it up: The U.S. stock market today is a dollar bill trading for close to $2 or more. Many stocks are $1 changing hands for $4, $6, $20. But we don’t own the market; instead we have assembled a portfolio of companies priced attractively at 30- to 60-cents on the dollar — one stock at a time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368113759412376,"gmtCreate":1730889275942,"gmtModify":1730889280147,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; I think it'll&nbsp;$300 today, then eventually it'll $250 on monday. Special profit just for election day hahaha","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; I think it'll&nbsp;$300 today, then eventually it'll $250 on monday. Special profit just for election day hahaha","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I think it'll $300 today, then eventually it'll $250 on monday. Special profit just for election day hahaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368113759412376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088011533,"gmtCreate":1650289851051,"gmtModify":1676534687571,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A controversial stock for sure, but I'm def leaning more towards the bullish stance","listText":"A controversial stock for sure, but I'm def leaning more towards the bullish stance","text":"A controversial stock for sure, but I'm def leaning more towards the bullish stance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088011533","repostId":"2227604635","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2227604635","pubTimestamp":1650250514,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227604635?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-18 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Assessing The Paradox Between Strong Fundamentals And A Weakening Share Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227604635","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryAlmost all of Nvidia's gains from the mid-March rally have been erased in the current month's","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Almost all of Nvidia&#39;s gains from the mid-March rally have been erased in the current month&#39;s extended semiconductor rout.</li><li>A new 40-year record on the latest U.S. inflation print is increasing investors&#39; angst over a potentially slowing economic outlook.</li><li>An increasingly aggressive stance taken by the Fed on tightening monetary policies in response to runaway price increases is also making headwinds for high valuation growth stocks like Nvidia.</li><li>The semiconductor industry is now the market&#39;s underdog, despite strong fundamental prospects on a robust demand environment buoyed by rapid global digitization trends in coming years.</li><li>Considering Nvidia&#39;s market leadership in the provision of processors and software used for enabling critical next-generation technologies like data centers and autonomous driving development, the stock remains on a positive trajectory towards further upsides over the longer term, despite the transitory market turbulence ahead.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5684060b5bab2f0aa3704fc4a205bfad\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Antonio Bordunovi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>The Nvidia stock (NASDAQ:NVDA) has traded in its strong two-week rally preceding the end of the first quarter for steep losses of more than 20% this month. The stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-11% month-to-date), as well as broad-market benchmark indexes like the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-6% MTD) and S&amp;P 500 (-3% MTD).</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s, alongside its industry peers&#39;, latest selloff comes as a result of mounting investor concerns over dampening consumer sentiment ahead of soaring inflation, as well as increasing risks of an economic downturn on the Fed&#39;s aggressive trajectory towards monetary policy tightening. Potential adverse impacts to near-term fundamentals resulting from intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflicts and ensuing sanctions that were previously downplayed are now also becoming more pronounced. Worries heightened over added pressure on already-fragile supply chains and effects on industry sales after Russian President Putin vowed to continue its &#34;military operation&#34;, citing peace talks with Ukraine have now reached a &#34;dead end&#34;.</p><p>Yet, from company-specific and longer-term perspective, Nvidia&#39;s financial outlook remains robust, thanks to its continued prowess and market leadership in graphics cards and artificial intelligence. As discussed in our previous commentary on Nvidia&#39;s latest GTC presentation, the chipmaker&#39;s continued commitment to innovation will only further its growth opportunities over the longer term, while also bolstering its competitive leadership ahead of a bullish chip demand environment.</p><p>The near-term macroeconomic challenges may be fuelling the paradox in Nvidia&#39;s near-term stock price movement, but its fundamental strength and outperformance are expected to prevail and regain investors&#39; confidence over the longer term.</p><p><b>Brewing Macroeconomic Implications on the Semiconductor Industry</b></p><p>Hot off the press Tuesday was the U.S.&#39; March inflation print. The number hit a fresh 40-year peak at 8.5% due to soaring commodity costs on protracted COVID and war disruptions on supply chains, fanning market fears over a multitude of macroeconomic challenges ahead. Investors were already spooked by a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials and aggressive monetary policy tightening plans outlined in the FOMC March meeting minutes released earlier this month, leading to the stock market declines observed over the past two weeks. And with the latest CPI data coming in at another generational all-time high, markets are bracing for the &#34;fastest monetary tightening since 1994&#34;, which combines a half percentage point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC May meeting and an aggressive rundown of the Fed balance sheet beginning as soon as June.</p><p>Both policy tightening tools aimed at quelling inflation at all costs certainly do not bode well with risk assets - especially high valuation growth stocks like Nvidia. On one hand, rising interest rates spell higher costs of borrowing, making it more expensive for a sector that is focused on investing in long-horizon growth. Although Nvidia&#39;s strong balance sheet (low leverage, high operational cash inflow) provides insulation on this front, aggressive rate hikes ahead still risk eroding the present value of its future earnings.</p><p>Meanwhile, on the other hand, an aggressive rundown of the Fed&#39;s balance sheet, which is currently capped at $1 trillion per year based on the March meeting minutes released, also fuels the risk-off environment in equities. U.S. Treasury yields have already been surging on an extended sell-off and briefly surpassed 2.8% earlier this week for the first time since March 2019. The benchmark inflation-adjusted yield is now nearing positive territory, meaning benchmark Treasury yield is close to surpassing inflation for the first time in two years. The trend, combined with rising interest rates&#39; threat on valuations, have together encouraged a further rotation away from growth stocks, which represent the &#34;riskiest corners of the market&#34; and are largely categorized as &#34;economically sensitive&#34;. This is further corroborated by losses observed in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which has lost more than $1 trillion of its market value over the past week.</p><p><b>Near-Term Fundamental Implications for Nvidia</b></p><p>Given the macroeconomic headwinds outlined above, investors are diverting focus from the March CPI data to the upcoming earnings season as they &#34;evaluate the threat from inflation, amid concerns that rising commodity costs and more circumspect consumers will end up squeezing company profits&#34;. But speculations on near-term fundamental adversities over the semiconductor industry are rising, further weighing on the industry&#39;s market performance in the past two weeks.</p><p>Recent analyst findings are warning of an &#34;unexpected decline in chip orders&#34; and a handful of &#34;order cancellations related to excess inventories&#34; observed in early April, which could imply a near-term demand slowdown stemming from reasons such as temporary production halts and delays due to COVID restrictions in China, as well as reduced sales due to sanctions imposed against Russia&#39;s assault on Ukraine. The bigger market worry is that consumer electronic OEMs are now cutting back on chip orders due to a structural downturn resulting from rising inventory stockpiles amassed during the worst of supply chain constraints. However, the scenario remains unlikely, considering demand for semiconductors remains higher than ever before, as evidenced by record sales reported by TSMC (TSM) and Analog Devices (ADI).</p><p>Accumulating macro and fundamental fears have driven declines of more than 7% in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index over the past week, marking one of the industry&#39;s worst sell-offs since January. Yet, global chip sales have increased by more than 30% year-on-year in February, marking the &#34;11th consecutive month of growth above 20%&#34;. With chips being an enabler of everyday essentials ranging from computers to cars to data center equipment, consensus estimates for sales and earnings growth in the current year are averaging 17% and 18%, respectively, up by more than four percentage points from prior year expectations and almost double of the average sales and earnings growth forecast for the S&amp;P 500. Even in the face of runaway inflation and aggressive tightening of central bank policies that risk pushing the economy into a recession, the demand environment for semiconductors - especially the full-stack, hardware-software offerings by Nvidia, which are critical to enabling digitization trends in the post-pandemic era - is unlikely to see any structural, massive contraction. The global chip supply shortage also remains prominent, especially with added pressure from impacted productions due to the recent outbreak of COVID infections across China. This will continue to buoy Nvidia&#39;s pricing power, and inadvertently, top-line growth, as downstream OEMs like automakers continue to look for ways to mitigate lost sales that topped $210 billion over the past year.</p><p>Despite speculations of some potential near-term slowdown, Nvidia&#39;s outlook on outperforming the broader semiconductor industry&#39;s average sales growth in the current period remains promising. And this will likely be the key determinant for the stock&#39;s rebound, as growth resilience is expected to restore investors&#39; confidence amidst mounting macro challenges. Our base case forecast expects total revenues for the fiscal first quarter ending April to increase by 43% year-on-year to $8.1 billion, which is largely consistent with management&#39;s issued guidance. And for the full fiscal 2023, total revenues are projected to increase 37% from the prior year to $36.8 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc1a5246f0ff31a5c974f402ac0ee3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia FY/2023 Revenue Projection (Author)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/980f0e86c6a8a047bae9ad8bc0da9030\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia Long-Term Revenue Projections (Author)</span></p><p>The forecast accounts for softer gaming revenue growth compared to the prior year, considering a potential slowdown in near-term discretionary consumer spending due to rising prices and nominal impact from the sanctioned Russian market. Over the longer term, Nvidia&#39;s continued commitment to innovation, as discussed in our previous coverage, will play a critical role in beating out competition and maintaining its market leadership in gaming. For instance, the newly launched &#34;NVIDIA H100&#34; GPU based on the newest &#34;Hopper&#34; architecture is expected to be &#34;the world&#39;s largest and most powerful accelerator&#34; for high-performance computing (&#34;HPC&#34;). According to Nvidia, &#34;twenty H100 GPUs can sustain the equivalent of the entire world&#39;s internet traffic&#34;, underscoring its continued prowess over next-generation computing and advantage over new offerings by industry peers, like the Intel Arc GPU (INTC).</p><p>Professional visualization segment revenues are expected to remain strong in the first half of the fiscal year on early-stage Omniverse-related sales, with continued ramp-up in adoption buoyed by new feature roll-outs and broadened application use cases. Meanwhile, automotive segment sales will remain impacted in the first half of the fiscal year due to worsening supply chain bottlenecks from the recent COVID resurgence in China and ongoing war in Ukraine, which have constrained auto production output in the current year. But over the longer term, Nvidia&#39;s full-stack autonomous driving solution offerings (&#34;NVIDIA DRIVE&#34;) will benefit from continued development and rapid adoption of self-driving technology.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e32941c569cc188aa04d3d80ec34be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia Financial Forecast (Author)</span></p><p><b>The Impact of Doubling Nvidia&#39;s Authorized Share Count</b></p><p>Aside from market-related headwinds, the latest company-specific challenge to the Nvidia stock&#39;s performance is the company&#39;s request for shareholder approval on doubling its current authorized share count. Nvidia outlined in its most recent Form PRE 14A filing to the SEC on April 8th that it is &#34;seeking approval of an amendment to [the] Restated Certificate of Incorporation to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock from 4 billion to 8 billion shares&#34; at the upcoming Annual Meeting of Stockholders in June.</p><p>Unlike mega-cap peer Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) recent proposal to shareholders for a share count increase to facilitate a potential stock split in the near term, Nvidia has only provided a generic statement on the matter, citing the proposed share count amendment would enable the issuance of shares for &#34;general corporate purpose, including, but not limited to, stock dividends and/or stock splits, expanding [the] business through mergers and acquisitions, providing equity incentives to employees, officers or directors, and the raising of additional capital&#34;.</p><p>The announcement pushed the stock 4% lower right out of the gate during Monday&#39;s (April 11th) regular session, underscoring investors&#39; fear for potential share dilution in the latter half of the year. But considering Nvidia&#39;s consistent growth track record and strong balance sheet, it is not one to act against shareholders&#39; interests. The proposed share count increase is likely resulting from the need for greater flexibility in raising capital to fund the company&#39;s longer-term investments, especially considering Nvidia&#39;s expanding innovative technology pipeline, which facilitates further capitalization on growth opportunities ahead. This is also consistent with the proposed funding structure on the previous Arm deal that had fallen through, which consisted of $21.5 billion in Nvidia common stock and $12 billion in cash. Equity funding complements the company&#39;s currently robust balance sheet as well, while also providing partial insulation from rising debt costs as a result of proposed rate hikes by the Federal Reserve over the next two years as discussed in earlier sections.</p><p>The other case is that the proposed increase to Nvidia&#39;s current authorized share count will be used to facilitate a potential stock split in the future, a favourable strategy that has regained popularity in recent months. While stock splits do not change a company&#39;s fundamentals, the strategy has historically dawned a rally for Nvidia, thanks to increased demand from retail investors who enjoy the ownership of whole shares but are averse to high prices. Considering Nvidia&#39;s accelerated business expansion and subsequent surge in valuation since its last stock split in 2021, a similar strategy could be in the works to attract greater market participation in the company&#39;s long-term growth prospects.</p><p><b>Valuation Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p>Nvidia&#39;s valuation premium to its semiconductor peers have largely diminished following the extended rout through April. Based on industry-wide valuation multiple contractions observed over the past several months in response to the current shaky macroeconomic climate, Nvidia&#39;s last traded share price in the $210s zone on April 12th tracks well on par with its peers. Based on the semiconductor peer group&#39;s forward implied growth-valuation correlation plotted below, applying Nvidia&#39;s projected 38% sales growth for the current year, as discussed in earlier sections, would yield an exit multiple of about 24x.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7f3a9e73e69a4ca6cf1df4ed42fdb04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Semiconductor Industry Peer Comp (Author)</span></p><p>Applying the 24x exit multiple alongside a 12.1% WACC determined based on Nvidia&#39;s current risk profile and capital structure to our discounted cash flow valuation analysis would result in a valuation of about $212 on a per-share basis.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3d3c836c4c2e8fe47927d1f97053e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia Valuation Analysis (Author)</span></p><p>However, considering Nvidia&#39;s historical valuation premium to peers, which is in our view reasonable given its market leadership (more than 80% GPU/AI processor market share) by wide margins against comparable peers, the stock will likely rebound to trade higher on proven growth resilience in the upcoming earnings season and once the market storm clears.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1317516748bc1c7801c5c6eb72fa6e82\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia Valuation Sensitivity Analysis (Author)</span></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Considering the structural importance of Nvidia&#39;s role in enabling core digitization trends in the coming decade, the company&#39;s demand environment remains one of the strongest in the industry despite the near-term macro challenges. While we are expecting further volatility leading up to the Fed&#39;s policy decision on rate hikes and its balance sheet reduction coming May, amongst other unresolved matters like extended COVID and war disruptions on already-fragile supply chains, the Nvidia stock remains on a positive track towards delivering a strong showing over the longer term.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Assessing The Paradox Between Strong Fundamentals And A Weakening Share Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Assessing The Paradox Between Strong Fundamentals And A Weakening Share Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-18 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501515-nvidia-assessing-paradox-between-strong-fundamentals-and-weakening-share-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlmost all of Nvidia's gains from the mid-March rally have been erased in the current month's extended semiconductor rout.A new 40-year record on the latest U.S. inflation print is increasing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501515-nvidia-assessing-paradox-between-strong-fundamentals-and-weakening-share-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4543":"AI","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501515-nvidia-assessing-paradox-between-strong-fundamentals-and-weakening-share-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2227604635","content_text":"SummaryAlmost all of Nvidia's gains from the mid-March rally have been erased in the current month's extended semiconductor rout.A new 40-year record on the latest U.S. inflation print is increasing investors' angst over a potentially slowing economic outlook.An increasingly aggressive stance taken by the Fed on tightening monetary policies in response to runaway price increases is also making headwinds for high valuation growth stocks like Nvidia.The semiconductor industry is now the market's underdog, despite strong fundamental prospects on a robust demand environment buoyed by rapid global digitization trends in coming years.Considering Nvidia's market leadership in the provision of processors and software used for enabling critical next-generation technologies like data centers and autonomous driving development, the stock remains on a positive trajectory towards further upsides over the longer term, despite the transitory market turbulence ahead.Antonio Bordunovi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe Nvidia stock (NASDAQ:NVDA) has traded in its strong two-week rally preceding the end of the first quarter for steep losses of more than 20% this month. The stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-11% month-to-date), as well as broad-market benchmark indexes like the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-6% MTD) and S&P 500 (-3% MTD).Nvidia's, alongside its industry peers', latest selloff comes as a result of mounting investor concerns over dampening consumer sentiment ahead of soaring inflation, as well as increasing risks of an economic downturn on the Fed's aggressive trajectory towards monetary policy tightening. Potential adverse impacts to near-term fundamentals resulting from intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflicts and ensuing sanctions that were previously downplayed are now also becoming more pronounced. Worries heightened over added pressure on already-fragile supply chains and effects on industry sales after Russian President Putin vowed to continue its \"military operation\", citing peace talks with Ukraine have now reached a \"dead end\".Yet, from company-specific and longer-term perspective, Nvidia's financial outlook remains robust, thanks to its continued prowess and market leadership in graphics cards and artificial intelligence. As discussed in our previous commentary on Nvidia's latest GTC presentation, the chipmaker's continued commitment to innovation will only further its growth opportunities over the longer term, while also bolstering its competitive leadership ahead of a bullish chip demand environment.The near-term macroeconomic challenges may be fuelling the paradox in Nvidia's near-term stock price movement, but its fundamental strength and outperformance are expected to prevail and regain investors' confidence over the longer term.Brewing Macroeconomic Implications on the Semiconductor IndustryHot off the press Tuesday was the U.S.' March inflation print. The number hit a fresh 40-year peak at 8.5% due to soaring commodity costs on protracted COVID and war disruptions on supply chains, fanning market fears over a multitude of macroeconomic challenges ahead. Investors were already spooked by a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials and aggressive monetary policy tightening plans outlined in the FOMC March meeting minutes released earlier this month, leading to the stock market declines observed over the past two weeks. And with the latest CPI data coming in at another generational all-time high, markets are bracing for the \"fastest monetary tightening since 1994\", which combines a half percentage point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC May meeting and an aggressive rundown of the Fed balance sheet beginning as soon as June.Both policy tightening tools aimed at quelling inflation at all costs certainly do not bode well with risk assets - especially high valuation growth stocks like Nvidia. On one hand, rising interest rates spell higher costs of borrowing, making it more expensive for a sector that is focused on investing in long-horizon growth. Although Nvidia's strong balance sheet (low leverage, high operational cash inflow) provides insulation on this front, aggressive rate hikes ahead still risk eroding the present value of its future earnings.Meanwhile, on the other hand, an aggressive rundown of the Fed's balance sheet, which is currently capped at $1 trillion per year based on the March meeting minutes released, also fuels the risk-off environment in equities. U.S. Treasury yields have already been surging on an extended sell-off and briefly surpassed 2.8% earlier this week for the first time since March 2019. The benchmark inflation-adjusted yield is now nearing positive territory, meaning benchmark Treasury yield is close to surpassing inflation for the first time in two years. The trend, combined with rising interest rates' threat on valuations, have together encouraged a further rotation away from growth stocks, which represent the \"riskiest corners of the market\" and are largely categorized as \"economically sensitive\". This is further corroborated by losses observed in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which has lost more than $1 trillion of its market value over the past week.Near-Term Fundamental Implications for NvidiaGiven the macroeconomic headwinds outlined above, investors are diverting focus from the March CPI data to the upcoming earnings season as they \"evaluate the threat from inflation, amid concerns that rising commodity costs and more circumspect consumers will end up squeezing company profits\". But speculations on near-term fundamental adversities over the semiconductor industry are rising, further weighing on the industry's market performance in the past two weeks.Recent analyst findings are warning of an \"unexpected decline in chip orders\" and a handful of \"order cancellations related to excess inventories\" observed in early April, which could imply a near-term demand slowdown stemming from reasons such as temporary production halts and delays due to COVID restrictions in China, as well as reduced sales due to sanctions imposed against Russia's assault on Ukraine. The bigger market worry is that consumer electronic OEMs are now cutting back on chip orders due to a structural downturn resulting from rising inventory stockpiles amassed during the worst of supply chain constraints. However, the scenario remains unlikely, considering demand for semiconductors remains higher than ever before, as evidenced by record sales reported by TSMC (TSM) and Analog Devices (ADI).Accumulating macro and fundamental fears have driven declines of more than 7% in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index over the past week, marking one of the industry's worst sell-offs since January. Yet, global chip sales have increased by more than 30% year-on-year in February, marking the \"11th consecutive month of growth above 20%\". With chips being an enabler of everyday essentials ranging from computers to cars to data center equipment, consensus estimates for sales and earnings growth in the current year are averaging 17% and 18%, respectively, up by more than four percentage points from prior year expectations and almost double of the average sales and earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500. Even in the face of runaway inflation and aggressive tightening of central bank policies that risk pushing the economy into a recession, the demand environment for semiconductors - especially the full-stack, hardware-software offerings by Nvidia, which are critical to enabling digitization trends in the post-pandemic era - is unlikely to see any structural, massive contraction. The global chip supply shortage also remains prominent, especially with added pressure from impacted productions due to the recent outbreak of COVID infections across China. This will continue to buoy Nvidia's pricing power, and inadvertently, top-line growth, as downstream OEMs like automakers continue to look for ways to mitigate lost sales that topped $210 billion over the past year.Despite speculations of some potential near-term slowdown, Nvidia's outlook on outperforming the broader semiconductor industry's average sales growth in the current period remains promising. And this will likely be the key determinant for the stock's rebound, as growth resilience is expected to restore investors' confidence amidst mounting macro challenges. Our base case forecast expects total revenues for the fiscal first quarter ending April to increase by 43% year-on-year to $8.1 billion, which is largely consistent with management's issued guidance. And for the full fiscal 2023, total revenues are projected to increase 37% from the prior year to $36.8 billion.Nvidia FY/2023 Revenue Projection (Author)Nvidia Long-Term Revenue Projections (Author)The forecast accounts for softer gaming revenue growth compared to the prior year, considering a potential slowdown in near-term discretionary consumer spending due to rising prices and nominal impact from the sanctioned Russian market. Over the longer term, Nvidia's continued commitment to innovation, as discussed in our previous coverage, will play a critical role in beating out competition and maintaining its market leadership in gaming. For instance, the newly launched \"NVIDIA H100\" GPU based on the newest \"Hopper\" architecture is expected to be \"the world's largest and most powerful accelerator\" for high-performance computing (\"HPC\"). According to Nvidia, \"twenty H100 GPUs can sustain the equivalent of the entire world's internet traffic\", underscoring its continued prowess over next-generation computing and advantage over new offerings by industry peers, like the Intel Arc GPU (INTC).Professional visualization segment revenues are expected to remain strong in the first half of the fiscal year on early-stage Omniverse-related sales, with continued ramp-up in adoption buoyed by new feature roll-outs and broadened application use cases. Meanwhile, automotive segment sales will remain impacted in the first half of the fiscal year due to worsening supply chain bottlenecks from the recent COVID resurgence in China and ongoing war in Ukraine, which have constrained auto production output in the current year. But over the longer term, Nvidia's full-stack autonomous driving solution offerings (\"NVIDIA DRIVE\") will benefit from continued development and rapid adoption of self-driving technology.Nvidia Financial Forecast (Author)The Impact of Doubling Nvidia's Authorized Share CountAside from market-related headwinds, the latest company-specific challenge to the Nvidia stock's performance is the company's request for shareholder approval on doubling its current authorized share count. Nvidia outlined in its most recent Form PRE 14A filing to the SEC on April 8th that it is \"seeking approval of an amendment to [the] Restated Certificate of Incorporation to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock from 4 billion to 8 billion shares\" at the upcoming Annual Meeting of Stockholders in June.Unlike mega-cap peer Tesla's (TSLA) recent proposal to shareholders for a share count increase to facilitate a potential stock split in the near term, Nvidia has only provided a generic statement on the matter, citing the proposed share count amendment would enable the issuance of shares for \"general corporate purpose, including, but not limited to, stock dividends and/or stock splits, expanding [the] business through mergers and acquisitions, providing equity incentives to employees, officers or directors, and the raising of additional capital\".The announcement pushed the stock 4% lower right out of the gate during Monday's (April 11th) regular session, underscoring investors' fear for potential share dilution in the latter half of the year. But considering Nvidia's consistent growth track record and strong balance sheet, it is not one to act against shareholders' interests. The proposed share count increase is likely resulting from the need for greater flexibility in raising capital to fund the company's longer-term investments, especially considering Nvidia's expanding innovative technology pipeline, which facilitates further capitalization on growth opportunities ahead. This is also consistent with the proposed funding structure on the previous Arm deal that had fallen through, which consisted of $21.5 billion in Nvidia common stock and $12 billion in cash. Equity funding complements the company's currently robust balance sheet as well, while also providing partial insulation from rising debt costs as a result of proposed rate hikes by the Federal Reserve over the next two years as discussed in earlier sections.The other case is that the proposed increase to Nvidia's current authorized share count will be used to facilitate a potential stock split in the future, a favourable strategy that has regained popularity in recent months. While stock splits do not change a company's fundamentals, the strategy has historically dawned a rally for Nvidia, thanks to increased demand from retail investors who enjoy the ownership of whole shares but are averse to high prices. Considering Nvidia's accelerated business expansion and subsequent surge in valuation since its last stock split in 2021, a similar strategy could be in the works to attract greater market participation in the company's long-term growth prospects.Valuation Sensitivity AnalysisNvidia's valuation premium to its semiconductor peers have largely diminished following the extended rout through April. Based on industry-wide valuation multiple contractions observed over the past several months in response to the current shaky macroeconomic climate, Nvidia's last traded share price in the $210s zone on April 12th tracks well on par with its peers. Based on the semiconductor peer group's forward implied growth-valuation correlation plotted below, applying Nvidia's projected 38% sales growth for the current year, as discussed in earlier sections, would yield an exit multiple of about 24x.Semiconductor Industry Peer Comp (Author)Applying the 24x exit multiple alongside a 12.1% WACC determined based on Nvidia's current risk profile and capital structure to our discounted cash flow valuation analysis would result in a valuation of about $212 on a per-share basis.Nvidia Valuation Analysis (Author)However, considering Nvidia's historical valuation premium to peers, which is in our view reasonable given its market leadership (more than 80% GPU/AI processor market share) by wide margins against comparable peers, the stock will likely rebound to trade higher on proven growth resilience in the upcoming earnings season and once the market storm clears.Nvidia Valuation Sensitivity Analysis (Author)ConclusionConsidering the structural importance of Nvidia's role in enabling core digitization trends in the coming decade, the company's demand environment remains one of the strongest in the industry despite the near-term macro challenges. While we are expecting further volatility leading up to the Fed's policy decision on rate hikes and its balance sheet reduction coming May, amongst other unresolved matters like extended COVID and war disruptions on already-fragile supply chains, the Nvidia stock remains on a positive track towards delivering a strong showing over the longer term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054119739,"gmtCreate":1655351383221,"gmtModify":1676535621073,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy birthday Tiger!!","listText":"Happy birthday Tiger!!","text":"Happy birthday Tiger!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054119739","repostId":"9022524674","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9022524674,"gmtCreate":1653552819200,"gmtModify":1676535303082,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Time Travel with Tiger, Join the Memorabilia Adventure Now!!!","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi\n \n","listText":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","text":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022524674","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"97af7069aa6440eab7c85601f72b41b1","tweetId":"9022524674","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/5836ee3f387702302012189230/1IRQdazMc4YA.mp4","poster":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2462b20b2a9a2483ae56cbb54dcb2a7"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017110060,"gmtCreate":1649753988150,"gmtModify":1676534565440,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to&nbsp;earn some moolas&nbsp;","listText":"Time to&nbsp;earn some moolas&nbsp;","text":"Time to earn some moolas","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017110060","repostId":"9016476123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9016476123,"gmtCreate":1649229403658,"gmtModify":1676534474180,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","listText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","text":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please click here to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b435c0d10e0e89ad3e06b7bbd04830","width":"2251","height":"1334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff9640a9df2f24446e07b7a9b658cb4b","width":"1200","height":"630"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/795038848b7c7b1d7dda27d92b580946","width":"1656","height":"948"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016476123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013163042,"gmtCreate":1648691337647,"gmtModify":1676534380604,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good article for the short term of the stock, definitely one to watch for the next decade or so","listText":"Good article for the short term of the stock, definitely one to watch for the next decade or so","text":"Good article for the short term of the stock, definitely one to watch for the next decade or so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013163042","repostId":"1108743613","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108743613","pubTimestamp":1648631503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108743613?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Nvidia Stock Retest The Highs, The Lows or Both?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108743613","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Nvidia stock has been on a tear, but is that rally about to slow? Let's look at the charts.Nvidia st","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia stock has been on a tear, but is that rally about to slow? Let&#39;s look at the charts.</p><p>Nvidia stock has been on a tear lately. While it hasn’t put together a 10-day rally like Apple, Nvidia’s 40% rally off this month’s low is quite impressive.</p><p>In a way though, it’s not surprising. We’re talking about a leading tech juggernaut with strong growth and impressive margins and cash flow. Furthermore, we’re talking about a company that is feeding into multiple secular growth themes within the tech sector.</p><p>Nvidia caters to the datacenter, cloud computing, supercomputing, artificial intelligence and machine learning, robotics, drones, automotive and autonomous driving, gaming, graphics, and the metaverse.</p><p><i>Phew.</i>That’s a lot of end markets, which all have one thing in common: Growth.</p><p>It’s one reason why we’ve seen Advanced Micro Devices trade so well over the past few years.</p><p>With the recent rally, it has investors wondering if the stock can retest its all-time highs, which were hit in November. On the flip side, it has investors worrying if it will retest the lows.</p><p><b>Trading Nvidia Stock</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0149e6dd921f6a301965931facdffc92\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"774\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Daily chart of Nvidia stock.</span></p><p>There’s no way to know which will occur. For all we know, it could be both. However, we also know that over the long term, Nvidia stock is a winner.</p><p>Nvidia is in sort of a gray area when it comes to tech. That’s because it’s a well-established, blue-chip name, but also considered by many to be a growth stock.</p><p>The former group — occupied by companies like Apple, Alphabet, etc. — has held up pretty well this year, while hyper growth stocks have been killed. From the highs, Nvidia stock came down about 40%.</p><p>However, unlike many growth names that are still trapped below the 50-day, Nvidia stock burst above that measure several weeks ago. In fact, Nvidia is above all of its major moving averages.</p><p>Now though, we’re starting to see shares stall. The stock couldn’t quite tag the 61.8% retracement, so that’s certainly a level I’ll be keeping an eye on this week.</p><p>Beyond that would open the door to $300-plus — and specifically the first-quarter high near $307 — followed $315 to $318. Above that and the all-time high is technically within reach.</p><p>On the downside, the $270 area and the rising 10-day are the most immediate short-term support levels to watch. Below them and I think we may be looking at a test of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages currently near $240 to $245.</p><p>If Nvidia stock breaks below $238 (and without getting too complicated, that’s roughly the 61.8% retracement of the current rally), then that’s when worries will really dial up about a retest of the lows at $206.50.</p><p>It’s impossible to know what the outcome here will be, but at least there is a roadmap to help navigate it in the short and intermediate term.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Nvidia Stock Retest The Highs, The Lows or Both?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Nvidia Stock Retest The Highs, The Lows or Both?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-30 17:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-nvidia-nvda-stock-back-to-its-highs-or-lows><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia stock has been on a tear, but is that rally about to slow? Let's look at the charts.Nvidia stock has been on a tear lately. While it hasn’t put together a 10-day rally like Apple, Nvidia’s 40% ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-nvidia-nvda-stock-back-to-its-highs-or-lows\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-nvidia-nvda-stock-back-to-its-highs-or-lows","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108743613","content_text":"Nvidia stock has been on a tear, but is that rally about to slow? Let's look at the charts.Nvidia stock has been on a tear lately. While it hasn’t put together a 10-day rally like Apple, Nvidia’s 40% rally off this month’s low is quite impressive.In a way though, it’s not surprising. We’re talking about a leading tech juggernaut with strong growth and impressive margins and cash flow. Furthermore, we’re talking about a company that is feeding into multiple secular growth themes within the tech sector.Nvidia caters to the datacenter, cloud computing, supercomputing, artificial intelligence and machine learning, robotics, drones, automotive and autonomous driving, gaming, graphics, and the metaverse.Phew.That’s a lot of end markets, which all have one thing in common: Growth.It’s one reason why we’ve seen Advanced Micro Devices trade so well over the past few years.With the recent rally, it has investors wondering if the stock can retest its all-time highs, which were hit in November. On the flip side, it has investors worrying if it will retest the lows.Trading Nvidia StockDaily chart of Nvidia stock.There’s no way to know which will occur. For all we know, it could be both. However, we also know that over the long term, Nvidia stock is a winner.Nvidia is in sort of a gray area when it comes to tech. That’s because it’s a well-established, blue-chip name, but also considered by many to be a growth stock.The former group — occupied by companies like Apple, Alphabet, etc. — has held up pretty well this year, while hyper growth stocks have been killed. From the highs, Nvidia stock came down about 40%.However, unlike many growth names that are still trapped below the 50-day, Nvidia stock burst above that measure several weeks ago. In fact, Nvidia is above all of its major moving averages.Now though, we’re starting to see shares stall. The stock couldn’t quite tag the 61.8% retracement, so that’s certainly a level I’ll be keeping an eye on this week.Beyond that would open the door to $300-plus — and specifically the first-quarter high near $307 — followed $315 to $318. Above that and the all-time high is technically within reach.On the downside, the $270 area and the rising 10-day are the most immediate short-term support levels to watch. Below them and I think we may be looking at a test of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages currently near $240 to $245.If Nvidia stock breaks below $238 (and without getting too complicated, that’s roughly the 61.8% retracement of the current rally), then that’s when worries will really dial up about a retest of the lows at $206.50.It’s impossible to know what the outcome here will be, but at least there is a roadmap to help navigate it in the short and intermediate term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812564289,"gmtCreate":1630595379241,"gmtModify":1676530352549,"author":{"id":"4091616308316100","authorId":"4091616308316100","name":"Jojolee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6364fb264c8c37a640e64bbb6dcf38","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091616308316100","idStr":"4091616308316100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article","listText":"Great article","text":"Great article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812564289","repostId":"1129827670","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129827670","pubTimestamp":1630308595,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129827670?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Happy Birthday Warren Buffett: What makes him so famous and successful","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129827670","media":"moneycontrol","summary":"The world’s most famous nonagenarian turns 91 today and it’s always a good time to reflect on what m","content":"<p>The world’s most famous nonagenarian&nbsp;turns 91 today and it’s always a good time to reflect on what makes him as famous (or successful or rich) as he is – of course, several books (The Warren Buffett Way, by Robert G. Hagstrom, is one that I recommend) have been written on this topic but I am going to try to cover a few points at a high level.</p>\n<p><b>Simple and direct</b></p>\n<p>“The one easy way to become worth 50 percent more than you are now — at least — is to hone your communication skills — both written and verbal… if you can’t communicate, it’s like winking at a girl in the dark — nothing happens. You can have all the brainpower in the world, but you have to be able to transmit it.”</p>\n<p>Simple and direct – I think these are the most important tenants of Buffett’s communication style. &nbsp;It sounds easy to emulate, but it’s really not because most often our parents, schools, colleges, and workplaces push us in the opposite direction.</p>\n<p>The importance of communication to Buffett can be seen from the significance he places on a public speaking course he took at Dale Carnegie (a workplace training and professional skills development organization) when he was younger.</p>\n<p>“I actually have the diploma in the office. And I don’t have my diploma from college, I don’t have my diploma from graduate school, but I have got my Dale Carnegie diploma there because it changed my life,”.</p>\n<p><b>A robust framework and the resolve to stick to it:</b></p>\n<p>Buffett, much like his mentor i.e., Benjamin Graham, possesses the ability to cut through the fluff and think straight.</p>\n<p>The reason why this is probably the most important lesson is that the nature of investing is such that (i) any long-term active investor will witness many periods (sometimes, years) of underperformance, and (ii) every portfolio will have its share of losers. Both apply to Buffett as well.</p>\n<p>Instead of falling prey to herd mentality and letting Mr. Market’s prevalent emotional state bias his decision making, he is able to view businesses rationally.</p>\n<p>Berkshire’s stock performance has lagged the benchmark in numerous years.</p>\n<p>However, a “sound intellectual framework” focused on company fundamentals and the discipline to stick to has meant that the good years, which saw massive outperformance, more than made up for the bad ones.</p>\n<p>Buffett has had his share of lemons too. In fact, as always, in the letter he openly admits that he made a big mistake on a $37 billion investment in Precision Castparts (PCC). He famously swore-off investing in airline stocks in the 1990s and early 2000s, referring to himself as an “air-o-holic.” This addiction seems to have reared its ugly head again, because in the throes of the pandemic Berkshire booked a loss on another set of airline stocks in 2020.</p>\n<p>Again, for every bad airline investment, Buffett has made famously huge windfalls in the likes of Coca Cola, American Express or Apple. At the end of the day, every investor will make mistakes, the key is to remain undeterred if you have a sound system in place.</p>\n<p>Remember, since 1965, Berkshire Hathaway’s shares have returned ~20% annually compared to the ~10% for the benchmark, the S&amp;P 500. In cumulative terms, that is a staggering ~28,00,000% rise vs. ~23,500% for the S&amp;P!</p>\n<p><b>Owner mindset</b></p>\n<p>“….That action increased your ownership in all of Berkshire’s businesses by 5.2% without requiring you to so much as touch your wallet. Following criteria Charlie and I have long recommended, we made those purchases because we believed they would both enhance the intrinsic value per share for continuing shareholders.”</p>\n<p>The quality of a company’s business is reflected in metrics like growth both in revenue and retained earnings, return on capital, among others. Of course, the price one pays in relation to these metrics is an important factor, but periodic fluctuations in price should not matter much to a fundamentals-focused investor.</p>\n<p>Buffett has often emphasized that Berkshire’s portfolio is “a collection of businesses” not just tickers on a screen.</p>\n<p>In the same vein, Buffett highlights Berkshire’s property/casualty insurance operations, BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy, among many other privately owned businesses that don’t have daily stock prices. Hence, they probably don’t receive as much attention as Berkshire’s investment portfolio of “marketable stocks”.</p>\n<p>However, it is clear from the letter that Berkshire remains focused on investing behind and growing these “family jewels”.</p>\n<p>The same philosophy is behind Berkshire’s practice of regularly buying back its own stock. Just in 2020, it repurchased $25 billion worth of its shares. Buffett again chooses to focus his shareholders’ attention on the underlying effect of the action.</p>\n<p><b>Trust and decentralization</b></p>\n<p>Indian promoters are often accused of holding on to control and not delegating enough to professional managers. The Berkshire Hathaway Empire is built on the exact opposite – decentralization.</p>\n<p>Over the years as it has expanded into a giant conglomerate, Buffett has made sure that its various subsidiaries (in many of which they own 100% stake) are autonomous units with near complete decision-making powers.</p>\n<p>Buffett takes minutes to size people up and deals are often closed on an initial phone call. If Buffett has any doubt regarding sincerity or trustworthiness of a potential associate, he is known to promptly walk away.</p>\n<p>A comment by Jim Weber, head of Berkshire unit Brooks Running Company, captures this approach: “I have never been given so much autonomy in my long business career, and have never felt so accountable and responsible.”</p>\n<p>In a way, trust is at the heart of Berkshire Hathaway’s and Buffett’s business model.</p>\n<p><b>Circle of competence</b></p>\n<p>“What an investor need is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word “selected”: You don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many.</p>\n<p>You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”</p>\n<p>Buffett’s ability to live within his circle of competence means that he is often able to make important “informed” decisions about companies and industries; being a prodigious reader helps. He is able to avoid businesses he doesn’t understand, and hence doesn’t fall prey to trend-based investing.</p>\n<p>He has pointed out how none of the top 20 companies by market cap in 1989 were in the top 20 today. He also highlighted that even in a booming industry over the last century, automobiles, there were over 2000 defunct companies.</p>\n<p>By 2009, there were just three left, of which two had been rescued from bankruptcy by the US government.</p>\n<p>“…there was a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what’s going to be a wonderful industry in the future.”</p>\n<p>To end this piece, I want to leave you with words from the man himself that in a way capture the inspiration for starting my own investment firm:</p>\n<p>“To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. What’s needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.”.</p>","source":"lsy1630308682275","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Happy Birthday Warren Buffett: What makes him so famous and successful</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHappy Birthday Warren Buffett: What makes him so famous and successful\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-30 15:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/happy-birthday-warren-buffett-what-makes-him-so-famous-and-successful-7400621.html><strong>moneycontrol</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The world’s most famous nonagenarian turns 91 today and it’s always a good time to reflect on what makes him as famous (or successful or rich) as he is – of course, several books (The Warren Buffett ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/happy-birthday-warren-buffett-what-makes-him-so-famous-and-successful-7400621.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/happy-birthday-warren-buffett-what-makes-him-so-famous-and-successful-7400621.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129827670","content_text":"The world’s most famous nonagenarian turns 91 today and it’s always a good time to reflect on what makes him as famous (or successful or rich) as he is – of course, several books (The Warren Buffett Way, by Robert G. Hagstrom, is one that I recommend) have been written on this topic but I am going to try to cover a few points at a high level.\nSimple and direct\n“The one easy way to become worth 50 percent more than you are now — at least — is to hone your communication skills — both written and verbal… if you can’t communicate, it’s like winking at a girl in the dark — nothing happens. You can have all the brainpower in the world, but you have to be able to transmit it.”\nSimple and direct – I think these are the most important tenants of Buffett’s communication style.  It sounds easy to emulate, but it’s really not because most often our parents, schools, colleges, and workplaces push us in the opposite direction.\nThe importance of communication to Buffett can be seen from the significance he places on a public speaking course he took at Dale Carnegie (a workplace training and professional skills development organization) when he was younger.\n“I actually have the diploma in the office. And I don’t have my diploma from college, I don’t have my diploma from graduate school, but I have got my Dale Carnegie diploma there because it changed my life,”.\nA robust framework and the resolve to stick to it:\nBuffett, much like his mentor i.e., Benjamin Graham, possesses the ability to cut through the fluff and think straight.\nThe reason why this is probably the most important lesson is that the nature of investing is such that (i) any long-term active investor will witness many periods (sometimes, years) of underperformance, and (ii) every portfolio will have its share of losers. Both apply to Buffett as well.\nInstead of falling prey to herd mentality and letting Mr. Market’s prevalent emotional state bias his decision making, he is able to view businesses rationally.\nBerkshire’s stock performance has lagged the benchmark in numerous years.\nHowever, a “sound intellectual framework” focused on company fundamentals and the discipline to stick to has meant that the good years, which saw massive outperformance, more than made up for the bad ones.\nBuffett has had his share of lemons too. In fact, as always, in the letter he openly admits that he made a big mistake on a $37 billion investment in Precision Castparts (PCC). He famously swore-off investing in airline stocks in the 1990s and early 2000s, referring to himself as an “air-o-holic.” This addiction seems to have reared its ugly head again, because in the throes of the pandemic Berkshire booked a loss on another set of airline stocks in 2020.\nAgain, for every bad airline investment, Buffett has made famously huge windfalls in the likes of Coca Cola, American Express or Apple. At the end of the day, every investor will make mistakes, the key is to remain undeterred if you have a sound system in place.\nRemember, since 1965, Berkshire Hathaway’s shares have returned ~20% annually compared to the ~10% for the benchmark, the S&P 500. In cumulative terms, that is a staggering ~28,00,000% rise vs. ~23,500% for the S&P!\nOwner mindset\n“….That action increased your ownership in all of Berkshire’s businesses by 5.2% without requiring you to so much as touch your wallet. Following criteria Charlie and I have long recommended, we made those purchases because we believed they would both enhance the intrinsic value per share for continuing shareholders.”\nThe quality of a company’s business is reflected in metrics like growth both in revenue and retained earnings, return on capital, among others. Of course, the price one pays in relation to these metrics is an important factor, but periodic fluctuations in price should not matter much to a fundamentals-focused investor.\nBuffett has often emphasized that Berkshire’s portfolio is “a collection of businesses” not just tickers on a screen.\nIn the same vein, Buffett highlights Berkshire’s property/casualty insurance operations, BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy, among many other privately owned businesses that don’t have daily stock prices. Hence, they probably don’t receive as much attention as Berkshire’s investment portfolio of “marketable stocks”.\nHowever, it is clear from the letter that Berkshire remains focused on investing behind and growing these “family jewels”.\nThe same philosophy is behind Berkshire’s practice of regularly buying back its own stock. Just in 2020, it repurchased $25 billion worth of its shares. Buffett again chooses to focus his shareholders’ attention on the underlying effect of the action.\nTrust and decentralization\nIndian promoters are often accused of holding on to control and not delegating enough to professional managers. The Berkshire Hathaway Empire is built on the exact opposite – decentralization.\nOver the years as it has expanded into a giant conglomerate, Buffett has made sure that its various subsidiaries (in many of which they own 100% stake) are autonomous units with near complete decision-making powers.\nBuffett takes minutes to size people up and deals are often closed on an initial phone call. If Buffett has any doubt regarding sincerity or trustworthiness of a potential associate, he is known to promptly walk away.\nA comment by Jim Weber, head of Berkshire unit Brooks Running Company, captures this approach: “I have never been given so much autonomy in my long business career, and have never felt so accountable and responsible.”\nIn a way, trust is at the heart of Berkshire Hathaway’s and Buffett’s business model.\nCircle of competence\n“What an investor need is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word “selected”: You don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many.\nYou only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”\nBuffett’s ability to live within his circle of competence means that he is often able to make important “informed” decisions about companies and industries; being a prodigious reader helps. He is able to avoid businesses he doesn’t understand, and hence doesn’t fall prey to trend-based investing.\nHe has pointed out how none of the top 20 companies by market cap in 1989 were in the top 20 today. He also highlighted that even in a booming industry over the last century, automobiles, there were over 2000 defunct companies.\nBy 2009, there were just three left, of which two had been rescued from bankruptcy by the US government.\n“…there was a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what’s going to be a wonderful industry in the future.”\nTo end this piece, I want to leave you with words from the man himself that in a way capture the inspiration for starting my own investment firm:\n“To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. What’s needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.”.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}