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MW69
2023-01-14
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MW69
2022-12-09
Awesome ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป Thank you!
Alibaba: International Expansion And Domestic Success
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you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929303341","repostId":"1180654040","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180654040","pubTimestamp":1670599860,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180654040?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-09 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: International Expansion And Domestic Success","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180654040","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba's stock decline over the past two years makes it an inexpensive growth stock.Strong c","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Alibaba's stock decline over the past two years makes it an inexpensive growth stock.</li><li>Strong cash position with 70% of FY22 cash repurchasing 63 million shares.</li><li>Compelling base of growth businesses outside of e-commerce, including cloud computing, digital marketing, and media.</li><li>Over 1.3 billion active annual customers, with 75% domestically in China and 25% global.</li></ul><h3>Investment Thesis</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba Group</a> is a Chinese multinational firm specializing in e-commerce solutions but has since branched out into software as a service (SaaS), logistics, and media.</p><p>Despite some macro headwinds and the extreme zero Covid policy in China that created stagnate traffic, overall revenue increased by 22% year over year in FY22. This was primarily driven by geographic expansion into rural areas of China and an increase in the order size per customer.</p><p>Cognizant of the geopolitical risks, we believe that Alibaba is a good speculative growth investment given the combination of low valuation, high growth and high risk. Alibaba has a tight grip on the domestic Chinese market, with 903 million active retail customers annually. Moreover, with the growing demand for cloud solutions and domestic logistics, Alibaba still has room to expand its market domestically and internationally. Should they capitalize on this, they could become a global powerhouse across e-commerce and logistics operations.</p><p>EFV= E2023 EPS times P/E (Price / Earnings Ratio)</p><p>EFV = $7.00 X 16.0 = $112.00</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2072d1c6e6a2af82aa18979e87368719\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Domestic and International Commerce</h3><p>COVID-19 restrictions in China are ongoing and incredibly strict. This has caused stagnant domestic revenue year over year and a decrease in customer engagement by 7%. However, consumer services including mapping and integrated commerce (Amap/Koubei), travel (Fliggy), and food delivery (Ele.me), had much stronger growth, with 21% year-over-year revenue growth. This was primarily driven by stricter lockdowns which caused much higher average order value per customer.</p><p>In FY22, Alibaba had 903 million active annual retail customers (AACs) across its various businesses. Alibaba had 98% retention of customers who spent at least $1,500 USD in FY21. These high-spending customers represent about 15% of AACs. With the addition of a more robust logistics network with Cainiao discussed below, 70% of new active annual customers were from less developed areas of China. More than 50% of Taocaicai, a direct-from-producer grocery and consumer staples provider were first-time buyers. Taobao, a hybrid of Etsy and eBay, had a 100% year-over-year increase in orders.</p><p>Cainiao is a primarily domestic, but expanding international, logistics and supply chain firm that offers delivery solutions. Year over year it had an increase of 36% in revenue (26%, excluding internal Alibaba transfers), equally driven by lockdowns forcing more domestic businesses to use e-commerce and virtual fulfillment solutions. International expansion has been ongoing. On average, 4.5 million parcels per day were moved internationally through the 9 parcel hubs globally. 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In addition, while globally AWS and Azure still dominate, Chinese firms expressed a 70% preference for Chinese-owned providers.</p><p>Chinese internet infrastructure for companies is still largely dominated by traditional internal server architecture, with the SaaS market remaining tiny at just $5.2 billion. For reference, the US market for SaaS is over $120 billion. The total addressable market for cloud service providers is expected to grow to $30 to $70 billion by 2025 with public cloud accounting for 45% of this addressable market, and 55% being private cloud.</p><p>Alibaba operates a growing digital media operation, encompassing production operation Alibaba Pictures and video streaming service Youku. Combined these segments saw a 4% revenue growth.</p><h3>Final Thoughts</h3><p>In FY22, Alibaba reached the long-term strategic goal to serve 1 billion consumers in China and raised its goal to facilitate RMB10 trillion of annual consumption in China ($1.4 Trillion USD). In FY22 it facilitated RMB8 trillion ($1.3 Trillion USD). While geopolitical risk is always something to keep in mind, Alibaba is a dominant force in domestic Chinese retail and logistics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec9432966ea3f24e114ffda4706168f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Alibaba still has room to expand its market domestically and internationally, especially within the logistics and cloud spaces.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: International Expansion And Domestic Success</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: International Expansion And Domestic Success\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-09 23:31 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563431-alibaba-stock-international-expansion-domestic-success><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba's stock decline over the past two years makes it an inexpensive growth stock.Strong cash position with 70% of FY22 cash repurchasing 63 million shares.Compelling base of growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563431-alibaba-stock-international-expansion-domestic-success\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563431-alibaba-stock-international-expansion-domestic-success","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180654040","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba's stock decline over the past two years makes it an inexpensive growth stock.Strong cash position with 70% of FY22 cash repurchasing 63 million shares.Compelling base of growth businesses outside of e-commerce, including cloud computing, digital marketing, and media.Over 1.3 billion active annual customers, with 75% domestically in China and 25% global.Investment ThesisAlibaba Group is a Chinese multinational firm specializing in e-commerce solutions but has since branched out into software as a service (SaaS), logistics, and media.Despite some macro headwinds and the extreme zero Covid policy in China that created stagnate traffic, overall revenue increased by 22% year over year in FY22. This was primarily driven by geographic expansion into rural areas of China and an increase in the order size per customer.Cognizant of the geopolitical risks, we believe that Alibaba is a good speculative growth investment given the combination of low valuation, high growth and high risk. Alibaba has a tight grip on the domestic Chinese market, with 903 million active retail customers annually. Moreover, with the growing demand for cloud solutions and domestic logistics, Alibaba still has room to expand its market domestically and internationally. Should they capitalize on this, they could become a global powerhouse across e-commerce and logistics operations.EFV= E2023 EPS times P/E (Price / Earnings Ratio)EFV = $7.00 X 16.0 = $112.00Domestic and International CommerceCOVID-19 restrictions in China are ongoing and incredibly strict. This has caused stagnant domestic revenue year over year and a decrease in customer engagement by 7%. However, consumer services including mapping and integrated commerce (Amap/Koubei), travel (Fliggy), and food delivery (Ele.me), had much stronger growth, with 21% year-over-year revenue growth. This was primarily driven by stricter lockdowns which caused much higher average order value per customer.In FY22, Alibaba had 903 million active annual retail customers (AACs) across its various businesses. Alibaba had 98% retention of customers who spent at least $1,500 USD in FY21. These high-spending customers represent about 15% of AACs. With the addition of a more robust logistics network with Cainiao discussed below, 70% of new active annual customers were from less developed areas of China. More than 50% of Taocaicai, a direct-from-producer grocery and consumer staples provider were first-time buyers. Taobao, a hybrid of Etsy and eBay, had a 100% year-over-year increase in orders.Cainiao is a primarily domestic, but expanding international, logistics and supply chain firm that offers delivery solutions. Year over year it had an increase of 36% in revenue (26%, excluding internal Alibaba transfers), equally driven by lockdowns forcing more domestic businesses to use e-commerce and virtual fulfillment solutions. International expansion has been ongoing. On average, 4.5 million parcels per day were moved internationally through the 9 parcel hubs globally. This figure is down approximately 500,000 from FY21, likely driven by a portion of the international air cargo fleet being Russian-registered and operated.International e-commerce saw a 3% year-over-year increase in orders. Trendyol primarily drove this, a Turkish platform, 90% owned by Alibaba. In international wholesale markets, Alibaba had a 6% year-over-year increase in orders. In FY22, this amounted to 305 million annual active customers.Alibaba Cloud and Digital MediaAlibaba cloud operates as an infrastructure as a service (IaaS)/software as a service (SaaS) hybrid business, providing private and public cloud services to businesses. While this has seen some softening of demand, it still had a 4% year-over-year growth. In addition, while globally AWS and Azure still dominate, Chinese firms expressed a 70% preference for Chinese-owned providers.Chinese internet infrastructure for companies is still largely dominated by traditional internal server architecture, with the SaaS market remaining tiny at just $5.2 billion. For reference, the US market for SaaS is over $120 billion. The total addressable market for cloud service providers is expected to grow to $30 to $70 billion by 2025 with public cloud accounting for 45% of this addressable market, and 55% being private cloud.Alibaba operates a growing digital media operation, encompassing production operation Alibaba Pictures and video streaming service Youku. Combined these segments saw a 4% revenue growth.Final ThoughtsIn FY22, Alibaba reached the long-term strategic goal to serve 1 billion consumers in China and raised its goal to facilitate RMB10 trillion of annual consumption in China ($1.4 Trillion USD). In FY22 it facilitated RMB8 trillion ($1.3 Trillion USD). While geopolitical risk is always something to keep in mind, Alibaba is a dominant force in domestic Chinese retail and logistics.Alibaba still has room to expand its market domestically and internationally, especially within the logistics and cloud spaces.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9929303341,"gmtCreate":1670596173883,"gmtModify":1676538401198,"author":{"id":"4091862753403120","authorId":"4091862753403120","name":"MW69","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836e05d220d0dadc8a06d9790bbc5c69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091862753403120","authorIdStr":"4091862753403120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป Thank you!","listText":"Awesome ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป Thank you!","text":"Awesome ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929303341","repostId":"1180654040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958895648,"gmtCreate":1673675402485,"gmtModify":1676538874085,"author":{"id":"4091862753403120","authorId":"4091862753403120","name":"MW69","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836e05d220d0dadc8a06d9790bbc5c69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091862753403120","authorIdStr":"4091862753403120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป Thank you!!!","listText":"Awesome ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป Thank you!!!","text":"Awesome ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป Thank you!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958895648","repostId":"1147935941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147935941","pubTimestamp":1673665634,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147935941?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-14 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Launches A Big AI Play In Bullish Move (Technical Analysis)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147935941","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMicrosoft remains in a bearish macro three wave pattern but things could be about to change.R","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Microsoft remains in a bearish macro three wave pattern but things could be about to change.</li><li>Reported talks to significantly invest in Open AI could leapfrog Microsoft up the ladder of the AI landscape.</li><li>After covering the news from this potential AI play, we will delve into the technical analysis to see how my September 2022 Microsoft sell rating performed.</li></ul><p>In this article we will cover how my September 2021 bearish sell signal for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is performing with an initial target of $220 before examining Microsoft's reported latest weighing up of a move into AI investment in 2023, we willย then look at the charts to see where Microsoft technically stands and if investors may be convinced that the tech giant has bottomed.</p><p>In September last yearย I issued a sell signalย for Microsoft circa the $240 region with an initial target of $220 and overall target of $190 if the bearish wave one was to be numerically copied. So far Microsoft has bottomed at $213 and is holding a potential bullish wave structure that will initiate a third wave north should $263 be broken above and alternatively render that potential structure a fail should $213 support be broken with $190 an immediate target.</p><p>2023 could see a significant acceleration in AI investment for tech companies. Microsoft is looking to compete in the race to bring the best AI tools to users. An everyday scenario would be as follows, a salesperson arrives at their desk at 9am to find 30 different sales leads, your software package tells you, these particular 5 leads are your best chance of closing a deal today putting the hottest leads directly at the top of your list for you. That level of sophistication is where tech companies are looking to provide users.</p><p>In Microsoft's case, they are weighing up their largest ever start up investment targeting an advantage against Google in advanced artificial intelligence tools. According to Bloomberg,ย the company is in negotiations to invest $10 Billion in Open AIย which over the past several years has shown it can do a lot more compared to a normal search.</p><p>In 2019 Microsoft invested $1 Billion in the then start up Open AI. Now the company clearly wants to rival Google for advanced search options for its Bing search engine.</p><p>As AI becomes more mainstream and algorithms become smarter, the user's productivity becomes enhanced. Not just Microsoft, tech companies in general are looking to enhance the capability of their AI structure which to date has been a gradual process.</p><p>So could this potential move have an effect on Microsoft's share price going forward. The answer is yes but as we speak this equity remains between two important price points. We will now move to the charts to examine where Microsoft may be headed next. But first, we will look into the bearish wave Microsoft currently resides in and if the selling pressure could be coming to an end.</p><p>Firstly if we look at the former chart from the time of writing my last Microsoft article, we can see the wave pattern as of September 2022. Issuing a sell signal at circa $240 the Fibionacci 161 would be the obvious next stop for this equity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6ba3999b9bf5f2653b92aafd31919ea\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"1050\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft September 2022 sell signal monthly chart(C Trader )</p><p>Now we can see in the current monthly chart below, by November, Microsoft had bottomed at $213 creating a bullish monthly candle from that price area. December then saw a high of $263 and for a potential bullish structure, an all important rejection candle. This month Microsoft has returned to the $220 region and seen a bounce from that price range. We can also see the next bearish technical level that lies at $190 should $213 be broken.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca8a9390f0c849e41440e286e64d18ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"993\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft current monthly chart(C Trader )</p><p>Unfortunately I do not have a crystal ball so we must go to the line "Failing to plan is planning to fail" and chart this potential bullish structure should it realize itself. With investors to date that might be invested from the $213, they have seen a nice bullish bounce from there and will be looking for Microsoft not to return lower from here with a $263 bypass directly in sight.</p><p>We can see in the zoomed in skeleton of the bullish wave pattern below that if Microsoft holds above $220 from here on in and price gets driven to and above $263 we will have a bullish third wave on our hands. The first target will be the Fibonacci 161 at $294 and i would be looking to the $314 price area for a completion of the wave.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042815a34ed43291b57c7a5a3856fee9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"990\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft potential bullish wave pattern(C trader)</p><p>To finalize, i am issuing a hold signal bearing in mind Microsoft reports earnings later this month along with any pending announcement of an investment in Open AI that may be to come giving direction to the share price.</p><p>It is important to note that a break below $213 from here may lead directly to $190. As mentioned additionally, a break above $263 could see the breakout third wave to $314. When either of these support or resistance regions are broken i will be publishing a follow up article with an additional directional signal.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Launches A Big AI Play In Bullish Move (Technical Analysis)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Launches A Big AI Play In Bullish Move (Technical Analysis)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-14 11:07 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569846-microsoft-big-ai-play-in-bullish-technical-move><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMicrosoft remains in a bearish macro three wave pattern but things could be about to change.Reported talks to significantly invest in Open AI could leapfrog Microsoft up the ladder of the AI ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569846-microsoft-big-ai-play-in-bullish-technical-move\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569846-microsoft-big-ai-play-in-bullish-technical-move","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147935941","content_text":"SummaryMicrosoft remains in a bearish macro three wave pattern but things could be about to change.Reported talks to significantly invest in Open AI could leapfrog Microsoft up the ladder of the AI landscape.After covering the news from this potential AI play, we will delve into the technical analysis to see how my September 2022 Microsoft sell rating performed.In this article we will cover how my September 2021 bearish sell signal for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is performing with an initial target of $220 before examining Microsoft's reported latest weighing up of a move into AI investment in 2023, we willย then look at the charts to see where Microsoft technically stands and if investors may be convinced that the tech giant has bottomed.In September last yearย I issued a sell signalย for Microsoft circa the $240 region with an initial target of $220 and overall target of $190 if the bearish wave one was to be numerically copied. So far Microsoft has bottomed at $213 and is holding a potential bullish wave structure that will initiate a third wave north should $263 be broken above and alternatively render that potential structure a fail should $213 support be broken with $190 an immediate target.2023 could see a significant acceleration in AI investment for tech companies. Microsoft is looking to compete in the race to bring the best AI tools to users. An everyday scenario would be as follows, a salesperson arrives at their desk at 9am to find 30 different sales leads, your software package tells you, these particular 5 leads are your best chance of closing a deal today putting the hottest leads directly at the top of your list for you. That level of sophistication is where tech companies are looking to provide users.In Microsoft's case, they are weighing up their largest ever start up investment targeting an advantage against Google in advanced artificial intelligence tools. According to Bloomberg,ย the company is in negotiations to invest $10 Billion in Open AIย which over the past several years has shown it can do a lot more compared to a normal search.In 2019 Microsoft invested $1 Billion in the then start up Open AI. Now the company clearly wants to rival Google for advanced search options for its Bing search engine.As AI becomes more mainstream and algorithms become smarter, the user's productivity becomes enhanced. Not just Microsoft, tech companies in general are looking to enhance the capability of their AI structure which to date has been a gradual process.So could this potential move have an effect on Microsoft's share price going forward. The answer is yes but as we speak this equity remains between two important price points. We will now move to the charts to examine where Microsoft may be headed next. But first, we will look into the bearish wave Microsoft currently resides in and if the selling pressure could be coming to an end.Firstly if we look at the former chart from the time of writing my last Microsoft article, we can see the wave pattern as of September 2022. Issuing a sell signal at circa $240 the Fibionacci 161 would be the obvious next stop for this equity.Microsoft September 2022 sell signal monthly chart(C Trader )Now we can see in the current monthly chart below, by November, Microsoft had bottomed at $213 creating a bullish monthly candle from that price area. December then saw a high of $263 and for a potential bullish structure, an all important rejection candle. This month Microsoft has returned to the $220 region and seen a bounce from that price range. We can also see the next bearish technical level that lies at $190 should $213 be broken.Microsoft current monthly chart(C Trader )Unfortunately I do not have a crystal ball so we must go to the line \"Failing to plan is planning to fail\" and chart this potential bullish structure should it realize itself. With investors to date that might be invested from the $213, they have seen a nice bullish bounce from there and will be looking for Microsoft not to return lower from here with a $263 bypass directly in sight.We can see in the zoomed in skeleton of the bullish wave pattern below that if Microsoft holds above $220 from here on in and price gets driven to and above $263 we will have a bullish third wave on our hands. The first target will be the Fibonacci 161 at $294 and i would be looking to the $314 price area for a completion of the wave.Microsoft potential bullish wave pattern(C trader)To finalize, i am issuing a hold signal bearing in mind Microsoft reports earnings later this month along with any pending announcement of an investment in Open AI that may be to come giving direction to the share price.It is important to note that a break below $213 from here may lead directly to $190. As mentioned additionally, a break above $263 could see the breakout third wave to $314. When either of these support or resistance regions are broken i will be publishing a follow up article with an additional directional signal.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
