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Viewpoint | Can profit become the "hope" of US stocks?

2022-03-18

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Inc.(MMAT)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923757766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080042070,"gmtCreate":1649823677040,"gmtModify":1676534584683,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080042070","repostId":"2227566789","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017340136,"gmtCreate":1649750321351,"gmtModify":1676534564217,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017340136","repostId":"2226655257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034573508,"gmtCreate":1647930645739,"gmtModify":1676534281555,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034573508","repostId":"1185192201","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185192201","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647927058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185192201?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-22 13:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Viewpoint | Can profit become the \"hope\" of US stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185192201","media":"中金点睛","summary":"摘要：目前美联储加息已落地，期待美股估值再扩张已不现实，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。年初以来美股表现疲弱，紧缩担忧、俄乌局势、通胀压力轮番压制市场表现。目前美联储在3月FOMC会议上已经开启加息，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At present, the Federal Reserve's rate hike has landed, and it is unrealistic to expect the valuation of U.S. stocks to expand further. The quality of profitability may be the key to the trend of U.S. stocks. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks have performed weakly, with tightening concerns, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and inflationary pressures taking turns to suppress market performance.</p><p><b>At present, the Federal Reserve has started a rate hike at the FOMC meeting in March, and it is unrealistic to expect another valuation expansion, so profitability will become the last defense of US stocks.</b>However, inflationary pressures have not yet eased and demand margins have fallen. Whether profits can withstand the pressure is the key.</p><p>In this regard, we combine the disclosed fourth-quarter results of U.S. stocks to sort out and analyze the cost-side pressure, capital expenditure, and growth prospects that the market is more concerned about.</p><p><b>1. Growth trend: the year-on-year growth rate dropped but still exceeded expectations; Technology, energy and medicine are the main contributors</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The profit growth rate in the fourth quarter dropped due to the base number and the epidemic, but the overall situation still exceeded expectations.</b></p><p></li></ul>On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS growth rate in the fourth quarter was 26.8% year-on-year, down from 36.8% in the third quarter. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 Index's EPS growth rate in the fourth quarter was 22% year-on-year (vs. 45% in the third quarter).</p><p>Taking into account factors such as the base number and the outbreak of the epidemic in Omicron in the fourth quarter, the decline in growth rate is basically expected. However, the overall growth level is still better than the market's expectation of ~ 23% before the beginning of the performance period, and the number of companies exceeding expectations still accounts for 77%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ac651564732a5bf7fccef89af3e31f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Technology, energy and medicine are the main contributions; Diversified finance, banking, etc. lag behind.</b></p><p></li></ul>Driven by the low base and price increases, the EPS growth rate of the energy, transportation, and consumer services sectors exceeded 100% year-on-year, and the growth rate of capital goods and raw materials was as high as 60%. At the same time, semiconductors, media and entertainment, biopharmaceuticals and technology hardware still maintain steady growth of 20% to 40%.</p><p>In terms of contribution, information technology (6.6 ppt), energy (4.4 ppt), medical care (3.7 ppt), communication services (3.1 ppt), and transportation (2.2 ppt) were the main growth contributions in the fourth quarter. Compared with the third quarter, diversified finance, banking, semiconductors and raw materials fell significantly.</p><p>Overall, in the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. stock market has repaired the gap under the impact of the epidemic. At present, only 8 sectors of transportation, consumer services, capital goods, technical hardware, energy, banking, real estate and household goods have not been fully filled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6b4596a4b0bc351d9414fa621901e1\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Cost analysis: The decline in profit margin and the slowdown in revenue are the main reasons for the decline in profit; However, cost pressures outside oil prices have eased</b></p><p>Since the fourth quarter, the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic has caused a new round of impact on the supply chain. At the same time, international oil prices have risen (US $79/barrel at the end of September 2021 vs. approaching US $140/barrel in mid-March 2022), and wage growth has been at a high level (4.8% year-on-year in September 2021 vs. 5.5% at the end of January, falling to 5.1% in February), all of which have caused U.S. inflation to continue to rise (CPI has risen from 5.4% year-on-year at the end of September to 7.9% in February 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f0c4859b436e7c57f28dba3a644ed2\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, we see the micro-level<b>Corporate costs and expenses have also risen</b>, although the financial cost dropped to 3.2% year-on-year under the 12-month static caliber, the sales and management expenses rose to 10% year-on-year, and the main business cost rose to 11%, which made the net profit margin of the non-financial sector in the fourth quarter from 12.4% in the third quarter. The high point dropped to 10.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb971e0914b76e2791ad0dcd35abf42\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96570a1ca8379331df51dc3cb9f3f3bc\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of sectors, the net profit margins of semiconductors, software services and services, biopharmaceuticals, and technical hardware remain high. Media, consumer services, telecommunications services, and public utilities have dropped significantly, but the net profit margins of energy, technical hardware, software and services sectors have increased significantly.</p><p>In addition to the cost side, the revenue of the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 increased by 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, down from 15.9% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Compared with the third quarter, energy, public utilities, real estate and optional consumption income increased year-on-year, but information technology, transportation, raw materials, etc. fell significantly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d1e98ac9bbaaee780dc106c102c21c\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>It is not difficult to see that the fall in profit margins and the slowdown in revenue growth are the main reasons for the decline in performance in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>Looking forward, against the background of slowing overall demand, cost pressure is still the main contradiction in profit prospects, especially against the background of the recent situation in Russia and Ukraine that further disrupts supply and pushes up oil prices.</p><p>However, we cannot generalize this. We need to see that the current profit margin level is still higher than the historical average (the average net profit margin of the S&P 500 index non-financial since 2013 is 10.3%). At the same time, after deducting the impact of oil prices, the inflation of core commodities in the United States is month-on-month (month-on-month fall in February), wage growth (month-on-month zero growth in February), supply chain and epidemic have all improved, so there is some room for pressure easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6e792e149af3c8ed1986e564b284d0\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Growth and asset quality: leverage has dropped and cash in hand is still sufficient; The retail side replenishes inventories rapidly and capital expenditures slow down</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Profit margins dragged down ROE levels in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>On a rolling basis in the past 12 months, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial companies in the fourth quarter continued to rise from 19.9% in the third quarter to 21.7% in the fourth quarter. The further increase in net profit margin is the main contribution to the increase in ROE;<b>Further dismantling shows that the tax burden has increased, the interest expense burden has decreased, and the asset turnover rate has increased.</b></p><p>However, from the perspective of single-quarter changes, affected by the decline in profit margins, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial companies fell to 25.0% in the fourth quarter from 25.3% in the third quarter.</p><p><ul><li><b>Financial leverage fell, but solvency declined slightly.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of the S&P 500 dropped to 72% from 73% in the third quarter, continuing to improve, but the overall interest reserve ratio of non-financial enterprises dropped slightly from 9.97 in the third quarter to 9.42. In terms of industries, the net leverage ratio of public utilities, real estate, and optional consumption is relatively high, while that of information technology, energy, etc. is relatively low, as is interest-bearing liabilities/EBITDA.</p><p><ul><li><b>Cash in hand fell and the scale of bond issuance slowed down.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, cash in hand in the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 accounted for 4.9% of total assets, basically the same as in the third quarter. The energy sector rose significantly, from 6.3% in the third quarter to 12.4% in the fourth quarter; Information technology, communication services, and optional consumption fell slightly compared with the third quarter, but still reached 7% to 10%.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, the non-financial cash in hand of the S&P 500 fell to US $1.95 trillion in the fourth quarter, of which information technology, optional consumption, and communication services accounted for the highest proportion. At the same time, the issuance scale of U.S. corporate credit bonds in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US $304.7 billion, slightly lower than the US $329.2 billion in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63303e8d46098be7b267dcd67e3e88b4\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Retail inventory is quickly replenished, and it may gradually enter the stage of active destocking in the future.</b></p><p></li></ul>The inventory on the retail side has been rapidly replenished since the fourth quarter of 2021. In contrast, the inventory of wholesalers and manufacturers is more sufficient, even at a high level, which partly reflects the poor channels and the time lag in the start of production. This conclusion is also verified by the rapid replenishment of the retail-end inventory-to-sales ratio since the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p><b>Looking forward, we expect that channel easing will further promote terminal inventory replenishment, while capacity utilization will repair and digest manufacturer inventory. If there is no new growth driver (such as capital expenditure) in the future, it will gradually enter the stage of active destocking.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The scale and growth rate of capital expenditure have both declined compared with the third quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of S&P 500 non-financial Capex fell back to 15.6% compared with the third quarter (19.7% in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the year-on-year growth rate of Capex, a sector with abundant cash in hand, has increased significantly compared with the third quarter, such as energy and information technology, but real estate, optional consumption, and medical care have dropped significantly.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, Capex in the fourth quarter fell slightly compared with the third quarter. Among the US $173.8 billion Capex in the non-financial sector in the fourth quarter, retail, media, telecommunications services, semiconductors, and public utilities together accounted for about 50%.</p><p><b>4. Outlook: Slowing profits is the general direction, but it is still early to talk about recession; Upside risks come from capital expenditures, downside risks are inflation and accelerating tightening</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Valuations are likely to continue to shrink, and profitability is currently the main reliance of U.S. stocks.</b></p><p></li></ul>The correction of U.S. stocks since the beginning of the year has been caused by the contraction of valuation (the S&P 500 index has fallen by 6.4% since the beginning of the year, the valuation has contracted by 10.2%, and the profit contribution has been 4.3%; since the epidemic, since the end of 2019, the S&P 500 index has risen by 38.1%, of which the valuation Expansion 5.2%, profit contribution 31.3%).</p><p><b>The current dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 19.2 times, which is at the 82.4% quantile since 1990, and basically at the level before the outbreak in March 2020;</b>Static P/E (21.1 times) is basically at a reasonable level (~ 21.3 times) that can be supported by growth conditions (February ISM manufacturing PMI 58.6) and liquidity (current 10-year US Treasury yields 2.15%).<b>However, under the background that the Federal Reserve has already made a rate hike and will launch a shrinking balance sheet in May, the valuation is likely to maintain a contraction trend.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, the quality of profitability may be the key to the trend of US stocks.</b>Pure monetary policy is not the key to judging the trend of the market, especially in the early stage of rate hike and tightening. What is more important is a clear and stable path.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1596fba746d8eceae0bddb31cce5187d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings are indeed under pressure from slowing growth and rising costs, but it may be too early to talk about a recession.</b></p><p></li></ul>Compared with last year's high base and concentrated stimulus efforts, the overall slowdown in demand was originally due to the trend. In addition, inflation and cost pressures have not yet been completely alleviated, so the overall growth is in a slowing direction. However, there is still a big difference between the slowdown in profit growth and the recession, and the slowdown in growth does not entirely mean the decline of the market.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of gradual improvement in the epidemic situation, inventory repair, and gradual easing of channel congestion, we expect that the overall growth of the United States can still maintain a relatively steady growth although it cannot accelerate.</b>Recently, the near inversion of 2s10s has triggered recession concerns, but we think it may be somewhat distorted. More importantly, except for government departments, the leverage level of financial, corporate and residential sectors in the United States is generally low, so they do not face the risk of large-scale deleveraging.</p><p>Currently, the market consensus expects U.S. stocks to grow their full-year earnings by 9.1% in 2022 (vs. 50.3% in 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e61cd8e6ec1ffbcea36d49380d56aee\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The downside risk comes from the situation between Russia and Ukraine or other unexpected supply shocks that further amplify and last longer.</b>Make the far-end inflation path higher and prolonged, forcing a sharp tightening of monetary policy, which will put greater pressure on overall growth and the market.</p><p>Without the influence of the Russia-Ukraine incident, apparent inflation may gradually fall after March due to the high base and the improvement of the epidemic. The rise in commodity prices caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine has delayed the arrival of the high inflation point (we estimate that it will be delayed by about one month), but it still falls back.</p><p>If it is upgraded again, the market needs to revise the long-term rate hike expectations, which will put interest rates at an upward risk (we estimate that the long-term Treasury Bond will hit a high of 2.3 ~ 2.4%), thereby suppressing profitability and risk appetite</p><p><ul><li><b>The upside risk comes from the start of corporate capital expenditures.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>If it is opened, it will not only provide new growth momentum, but also provide a way out for the current excess liquidity and resolve cost pressures through growth. At present, American companies have the ability and demand, but the production capacity and inventory conditions are not yet available. We expect the verification point to be around the second quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Viewpoint | Can profit become the \"hope\" of US stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nViewpoint | Can profit become the \"hope\" of US stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-22 13:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At present, the Federal Reserve's rate hike has landed, and it is unrealistic to expect the valuation of U.S. stocks to expand further. The quality of profitability may be the key to the trend of U.S. stocks. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks have performed weakly, with tightening concerns, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and inflationary pressures taking turns to suppress market performance.</p><p><b>At present, the Federal Reserve has started a rate hike at the FOMC meeting in March, and it is unrealistic to expect another valuation expansion, so profitability will become the last defense of US stocks.</b>However, inflationary pressures have not yet eased and demand margins have fallen. Whether profits can withstand the pressure is the key.</p><p>In this regard, we combine the disclosed fourth-quarter results of U.S. stocks to sort out and analyze the cost-side pressure, capital expenditure, and growth prospects that the market is more concerned about.</p><p><b>1. Growth trend: the year-on-year growth rate dropped but still exceeded expectations; Technology, energy and medicine are the main contributors</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The profit growth rate in the fourth quarter dropped due to the base number and the epidemic, but the overall situation still exceeded expectations.</b></p><p></li></ul>On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS growth rate in the fourth quarter was 26.8% year-on-year, down from 36.8% in the third quarter. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 Index's EPS growth rate in the fourth quarter was 22% year-on-year (vs. 45% in the third quarter).</p><p>Taking into account factors such as the base number and the outbreak of the epidemic in Omicron in the fourth quarter, the decline in growth rate is basically expected. However, the overall growth level is still better than the market's expectation of ~ 23% before the beginning of the performance period, and the number of companies exceeding expectations still accounts for 77%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ac651564732a5bf7fccef89af3e31f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Technology, energy and medicine are the main contributions; Diversified finance, banking, etc. lag behind.</b></p><p></li></ul>Driven by the low base and price increases, the EPS growth rate of the energy, transportation, and consumer services sectors exceeded 100% year-on-year, and the growth rate of capital goods and raw materials was as high as 60%. At the same time, semiconductors, media and entertainment, biopharmaceuticals and technology hardware still maintain steady growth of 20% to 40%.</p><p>In terms of contribution, information technology (6.6 ppt), energy (4.4 ppt), medical care (3.7 ppt), communication services (3.1 ppt), and transportation (2.2 ppt) were the main growth contributions in the fourth quarter. Compared with the third quarter, diversified finance, banking, semiconductors and raw materials fell significantly.</p><p>Overall, in the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. stock market has repaired the gap under the impact of the epidemic. At present, only 8 sectors of transportation, consumer services, capital goods, technical hardware, energy, banking, real estate and household goods have not been fully filled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6b4596a4b0bc351d9414fa621901e1\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Cost analysis: The decline in profit margin and the slowdown in revenue are the main reasons for the decline in profit; However, cost pressures outside oil prices have eased</b></p><p>Since the fourth quarter, the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic has caused a new round of impact on the supply chain. At the same time, international oil prices have risen (US $79/barrel at the end of September 2021 vs. approaching US $140/barrel in mid-March 2022), and wage growth has been at a high level (4.8% year-on-year in September 2021 vs. 5.5% at the end of January, falling to 5.1% in February), all of which have caused U.S. inflation to continue to rise (CPI has risen from 5.4% year-on-year at the end of September to 7.9% in February 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f0c4859b436e7c57f28dba3a644ed2\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, we see the micro-level<b>Corporate costs and expenses have also risen</b>, although the financial cost dropped to 3.2% year-on-year under the 12-month static caliber, the sales and management expenses rose to 10% year-on-year, and the main business cost rose to 11%, which made the net profit margin of the non-financial sector in the fourth quarter from 12.4% in the third quarter. The high point dropped to 10.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb971e0914b76e2791ad0dcd35abf42\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96570a1ca8379331df51dc3cb9f3f3bc\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of sectors, the net profit margins of semiconductors, software services and services, biopharmaceuticals, and technical hardware remain high. Media, consumer services, telecommunications services, and public utilities have dropped significantly, but the net profit margins of energy, technical hardware, software and services sectors have increased significantly.</p><p>In addition to the cost side, the revenue of the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 increased by 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, down from 15.9% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Compared with the third quarter, energy, public utilities, real estate and optional consumption income increased year-on-year, but information technology, transportation, raw materials, etc. fell significantly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d1e98ac9bbaaee780dc106c102c21c\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>It is not difficult to see that the fall in profit margins and the slowdown in revenue growth are the main reasons for the decline in performance in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>Looking forward, against the background of slowing overall demand, cost pressure is still the main contradiction in profit prospects, especially against the background of the recent situation in Russia and Ukraine that further disrupts supply and pushes up oil prices.</p><p>However, we cannot generalize this. We need to see that the current profit margin level is still higher than the historical average (the average net profit margin of the S&P 500 index non-financial since 2013 is 10.3%). At the same time, after deducting the impact of oil prices, the inflation of core commodities in the United States is month-on-month (month-on-month fall in February), wage growth (month-on-month zero growth in February), supply chain and epidemic have all improved, so there is some room for pressure easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6e792e149af3c8ed1986e564b284d0\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Growth and asset quality: leverage has dropped and cash in hand is still sufficient; The retail side replenishes inventories rapidly and capital expenditures slow down</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Profit margins dragged down ROE levels in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>On a rolling basis in the past 12 months, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial companies in the fourth quarter continued to rise from 19.9% in the third quarter to 21.7% in the fourth quarter. The further increase in net profit margin is the main contribution to the increase in ROE;<b>Further dismantling shows that the tax burden has increased, the interest expense burden has decreased, and the asset turnover rate has increased.</b></p><p>However, from the perspective of single-quarter changes, affected by the decline in profit margins, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial companies fell to 25.0% in the fourth quarter from 25.3% in the third quarter.</p><p><ul><li><b>Financial leverage fell, but solvency declined slightly.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of the S&P 500 dropped to 72% from 73% in the third quarter, continuing to improve, but the overall interest reserve ratio of non-financial enterprises dropped slightly from 9.97 in the third quarter to 9.42. In terms of industries, the net leverage ratio of public utilities, real estate, and optional consumption is relatively high, while that of information technology, energy, etc. is relatively low, as is interest-bearing liabilities/EBITDA.</p><p><ul><li><b>Cash in hand fell and the scale of bond issuance slowed down.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, cash in hand in the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 accounted for 4.9% of total assets, basically the same as in the third quarter. The energy sector rose significantly, from 6.3% in the third quarter to 12.4% in the fourth quarter; Information technology, communication services, and optional consumption fell slightly compared with the third quarter, but still reached 7% to 10%.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, the non-financial cash in hand of the S&P 500 fell to US $1.95 trillion in the fourth quarter, of which information technology, optional consumption, and communication services accounted for the highest proportion. At the same time, the issuance scale of U.S. corporate credit bonds in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US $304.7 billion, slightly lower than the US $329.2 billion in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63303e8d46098be7b267dcd67e3e88b4\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Retail inventory is quickly replenished, and it may gradually enter the stage of active destocking in the future.</b></p><p></li></ul>The inventory on the retail side has been rapidly replenished since the fourth quarter of 2021. In contrast, the inventory of wholesalers and manufacturers is more sufficient, even at a high level, which partly reflects the poor channels and the time lag in the start of production. This conclusion is also verified by the rapid replenishment of the retail-end inventory-to-sales ratio since the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p><b>Looking forward, we expect that channel easing will further promote terminal inventory replenishment, while capacity utilization will repair and digest manufacturer inventory. If there is no new growth driver (such as capital expenditure) in the future, it will gradually enter the stage of active destocking.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The scale and growth rate of capital expenditure have both declined compared with the third quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of S&P 500 non-financial Capex fell back to 15.6% compared with the third quarter (19.7% in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the year-on-year growth rate of Capex, a sector with abundant cash in hand, has increased significantly compared with the third quarter, such as energy and information technology, but real estate, optional consumption, and medical care have dropped significantly.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, Capex in the fourth quarter fell slightly compared with the third quarter. Among the US $173.8 billion Capex in the non-financial sector in the fourth quarter, retail, media, telecommunications services, semiconductors, and public utilities together accounted for about 50%.</p><p><b>4. Outlook: Slowing profits is the general direction, but it is still early to talk about recession; Upside risks come from capital expenditures, downside risks are inflation and accelerating tightening</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Valuations are likely to continue to shrink, and profitability is currently the main reliance of U.S. stocks.</b></p><p></li></ul>The correction of U.S. stocks since the beginning of the year has been caused by the contraction of valuation (the S&P 500 index has fallen by 6.4% since the beginning of the year, the valuation has contracted by 10.2%, and the profit contribution has been 4.3%; since the epidemic, since the end of 2019, the S&P 500 index has risen by 38.1%, of which the valuation Expansion 5.2%, profit contribution 31.3%).</p><p><b>The current dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 19.2 times, which is at the 82.4% quantile since 1990, and basically at the level before the outbreak in March 2020;</b>Static P/E (21.1 times) is basically at a reasonable level (~ 21.3 times) that can be supported by growth conditions (February ISM manufacturing PMI 58.6) and liquidity (current 10-year US Treasury yields 2.15%).<b>However, under the background that the Federal Reserve has already made a rate hike and will launch a shrinking balance sheet in May, the valuation is likely to maintain a contraction trend.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, the quality of profitability may be the key to the trend of US stocks.</b>Pure monetary policy is not the key to judging the trend of the market, especially in the early stage of rate hike and tightening. What is more important is a clear and stable path.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1596fba746d8eceae0bddb31cce5187d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings are indeed under pressure from slowing growth and rising costs, but it may be too early to talk about a recession.</b></p><p></li></ul>Compared with last year's high base and concentrated stimulus efforts, the overall slowdown in demand was originally due to the trend. In addition, inflation and cost pressures have not yet been completely alleviated, so the overall growth is in a slowing direction. However, there is still a big difference between the slowdown in profit growth and the recession, and the slowdown in growth does not entirely mean the decline of the market.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of gradual improvement in the epidemic situation, inventory repair, and gradual easing of channel congestion, we expect that the overall growth of the United States can still maintain a relatively steady growth although it cannot accelerate.</b>Recently, the near inversion of 2s10s has triggered recession concerns, but we think it may be somewhat distorted. More importantly, except for government departments, the leverage level of financial, corporate and residential sectors in the United States is generally low, so they do not face the risk of large-scale deleveraging.</p><p>Currently, the market consensus expects U.S. stocks to grow their full-year earnings by 9.1% in 2022 (vs. 50.3% in 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e61cd8e6ec1ffbcea36d49380d56aee\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The downside risk comes from the situation between Russia and Ukraine or other unexpected supply shocks that further amplify and last longer.</b>Make the far-end inflation path higher and prolonged, forcing a sharp tightening of monetary policy, which will put greater pressure on overall growth and the market.</p><p>Without the influence of the Russia-Ukraine incident, apparent inflation may gradually fall after March due to the high base and the improvement of the epidemic. The rise in commodity prices caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine has delayed the arrival of the high inflation point (we estimate that it will be delayed by about one month), but it still falls back.</p><p>If it is upgraded again, the market needs to revise the long-term rate hike expectations, which will put interest rates at an upward risk (we estimate that the long-term Treasury Bond will hit a high of 2.3 ~ 2.4%), thereby suppressing profitability and risk appetite</p><p><ul><li><b>The upside risk comes from the start of corporate capital expenditures.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>If it is opened, it will not only provide new growth momentum, but also provide a way out for the current excess liquidity and resolve cost pressures through growth. At present, American companies have the ability and demand, but the production capacity and inventory conditions are not yet available. We expect the verification point to be around the second quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PbH4l7SMcZNU0foQFj09qQ\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PbH4l7SMcZNU0foQFj09qQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185192201","content_text":"摘要：目前美联储加息已落地，期待美股估值再扩张已不现实，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。年初以来美股表现疲弱，紧缩担忧、俄乌局势、通胀压力轮番压制市场表现。目前美联储在3月FOMC会议上已经开启加息，期待估值再度扩张已不现实，因此盈利就将成为美股「最后的防御」。但通胀压力尚未缓解、需求边际回落下，盈利能否抵住压力是关键。就此，我们结合已披露完毕的美股四季度业绩，针对市场较为关心的成本端压力、资本开支、增长前景做出梳理分析。1、增长趋势：同比增速回落但仍超预期；科技能源及医药是主要贡献基数和疫情下四季度盈利增速回落，但整体仍超预期。可比口径下，标普500四季度EPS同比增速26.8%，较三季度36.8%回落。类似的，纳斯达克100指数四季度EPS同比增速为22%（vs. 三季度的45%）。考虑到基数和四季度奥密克戎疫情爆发等因素，增速回落也基本在意料之内。不过，整体增长水平依然好于业绩期开始前市场~23%的预期，超预期公司数占比仍有77%。科技能源及医药是主要贡献；多元金融、银行等落后。受低基数和涨价驱动，能源、交通运输、消费者服务板块EPS同比增速超过100%，资本品及原材料增速也高达60%。与此同时，半导体、媒体与娱乐、生物制药及科技硬件依然维持20%~40%的稳健增长。从贡献程度看，信息科技（6.6ppt）、能源（4.4ppt）、医疗保健（3.7ppt）、通讯服务（3.1ppt）、交通运输（2.2ppt）是四季度主要增长贡献。相比三季度，多元金融、银行、半导体及原材料回落较为明显。整体来看，2021年三季度美股就已经修复了疫情冲击下的「缺口」，目前仅剩交通运输、消费服务、资本品、技术硬件、能源、银行、房地产及家庭用品这8个板块仍未完全填平。2、成本分析：利润率回落叠加收入趋缓是盈利下滑主因；不过油价外成本压力有所趋缓四季度以来，奥密克戎疫情爆发对供应链造成了新一轮冲击，同时国际油价走高（2021年9月底79美元/桶 vs. 2022年月3月中逼近140美元/桶）、工资增速处于高位（2021年9月同比4.8% vs. 1月底5.5%，2月降至5.1%），都使得美国通胀持续走高（CPI同比从9月底的5.4%一路走高至2022年2月的7.9%）。这一背景下，我们看到微观层面的企业成本和费用也有所抬升，虽然12个月静态口径下财务成本同比降至3.2%，但销售管理费用同比升至10%、主营业务成本抬升至11%，这使得四季度非金融板块净利润率从三季度12.4%高点降至10.6%。分板块看，半导体、软件服务与服务、生物制药、技术硬件净利润率仍维持高位，媒体、消费者服务、电信服务、公用事业回落明显，但能源、技术硬件、软件与服务等板块净利润率抬升显著。除了成本端外，四季度标普500非金融板块收入同比增长14%，较三季度的15.9%回落。相比三季度，能源、公用事业、房地产及可选消费收入同比抬升，但信息科技、交通运输、原材料等回落明显。不难看出，利润率回落叠加收入增速趋缓是四季度业绩下滑的主要原因。往前看，在整体需求趋缓的大背景下，成本的压力依然是盈利前景的主要矛盾，尤其是近期俄乌局势进一步扰乱供给推高油价的背景下。不过，也不能因此就一概而论，需要看到当前利润率水平依然高于历史平均（标普500指数非金融2013年以来净利润率均值10.3%），同时扣除掉油价影响的美国核心商品通胀环比（2月环比回落）、薪资增速（2月环比零增长）、供应链和疫情都已经改善，故存在部分压力缓和空间。3、增长与资产质量：杠杆回落、在手现金依然充足；零售端补库迅速，资本开支趋缓利润率拖累四季度ROE水平回落。过去12个月滚动口径下，四季度标普500非金融企业ROE从三季度的19.9%继续抬升至四季度的21.7%，净利润率的进一步攀升是ROE抬升的主要贡献；进一步拆解来看，税负抬升、利息费用负担下降、资产周转率抬升。不过从单季度变化看，受利润率回落影响，四季度标普500非金融企业ROE从三季度25.3%降至25.0%。财务杠杆回落，但偿付能力微降。四季度标普500非金融整体净杠杆率（净债务/净资产）从三季度的73%降至72%，继续改善，但非金融企业整体利息备付率从三季度的9.97微降至9.42。分行业看，公用事业、房地产、可选消费净杠杆率偏高，信息技术、能源等相对偏低，有息负债/EBITDA亦是如此。在手现金回落、发债规模放缓。四季度标普500非金融板块在手现金占总资产比例4.9%，基本持平于三季度。能源板块抬升明显，从三季度的6.3%抬升至四季度12.4%；信息科技、通讯服务、可选消费较三季度略有回落，但仍达7%~10%。绝对规模看，四季度标普500非金融在手现金降至1.95万亿美元，其中信息科技、可选消费、通讯服务占比最高。与此同时，2021年四季度美国企业信用债发行规模3047亿美元，略低于三季度的3292亿美元。零售库存快速回补，未来或逐步进入主动去库存阶段。零售端库存自2021年四季度以来快速回补，相比之下，批发商和生产商库存则更为充足，甚至处于高位，部分体现渠道的不畅和生产端开工的时滞。零售端库销比自2021年四季度以来同样快速回补也验证了这一结论。往后看，我们预计渠道缓解进一步将推动终端库存回补、同时产能利用率修复消化生产商库存。如果后续没有新的增长动力（如资本开支），将逐步进入主动去库存阶段。资本开支规模及增速较三季度均有所回落。四季度标普500非金融Capex同比增速较三季度回落至15.6%（三季度19.7%）。分板块看，企业在手现金充裕的板块Capex同比增速较三季度抬升显著，如能源和信息科技，但房地产、可选消费、医疗保健回落明显。绝对规模看，四季度Capex较三季度略有回落，四季度非金融板块1738亿美元的Capex中，零售、媒体、电信服务、半导体、公用事业合计占比约50%4、前景展望：盈利趋缓是大方向，但谈衰退尚早；上行风险来自资本开支，下行风险为通胀和紧缩加速估值大概率继续收缩，盈利是美股当前的主要依靠。年初以来美股回调均由估值收缩所致（标普500指数年初以来下跌6.4%，估值收缩10.2%，盈利贡献4.3%；疫情以来，2019年底至今，标普500指数上涨38.1%，其中估值扩张5.2%，盈利贡献31.3%）。当前标普500指数动态估值为19.2倍，处于1990年以来82.4%分位数，且基本位于2020年3月疫情爆发前水平；静态P/E（21.1倍）基本位于增长条件（2月ISM制造业PMI 58.6）和流动性（当前10年美债利率 2.15%）能够支撑的合理水平（~21.3倍），但在当前美联储已经加息并将于5月启动缩表的背景下，估值大概率维持收缩态势。因此，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。单纯货币政策但并非判断市场走向的关键，尤其是在加息和收紧初期，更关键的是一个清晰而稳定的路径。盈利的确面临增长趋缓和成本抬升的压力，但谈衰退可能尚早。相比去年的高基数和刺激集中发力，需求整体放缓原本也是趋势使然，再加上通胀和成本压力尚未完全缓解，因此增长整体处于趋缓方向。不过盈利增速的放缓和衰退还是有很大区别，增速的放缓也不完全意味着市场的下跌。在疫情逐步改善、库存修复、渠道阻塞逐步缓解的背景下，我们预计美国整体增长虽然无法加速但仍能维持一个相对稳健的增长。近期2s10s临近倒挂引发衰退担忧，但我们认为可能有些失真。更重要的是，除了政府部门外，美国金融、企业和居民部门的杠杆水平整体偏低，因此不面临大规模的去杠杆风险。当前，市场一致预期预计美股2022年全年盈利增长9.1%（vs. 2021年50.3%）。下行风险来自俄乌局势或者其他意料之外的供应冲击进一步放大并持续更长时间，使得远端通胀路径走高并延长、迫使货币政策大幅收紧，这将会给整体增长和市场带来更大压力。在没有俄乌事件影响下，表观通胀可能在高基数和疫情改善作用下3月后逐步回落。俄乌局势导致的大宗商品价格上冲已经将推后通胀高点的到来（我们测算延后1个月左右），但依然还是回落的。如果再度升级，市场就需要重新修正「远端」加息预期，进而使得利率有上行风险（我们测算长端国债摸高2.3~2.4%），进而压制盈利和风险偏好上行风险来自企业资本开支开启。如果开启将不仅提供新的增长动力，也能为当前过剩流动性提供「出路」，通过增长化解成本压力。当前美国企业有能力也有需求，但产能和库存条件尚不具备，我们预计验证点在二季度左右。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035847630,"gmtCreate":1647569489331,"gmtModify":1676534245918,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035847630","repostId":"2220717739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220717739","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647559535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220717739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-18 07:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Microsoft encounters antitrust complaints in EU: cloud computing business accused of undermining market competition","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220717739","media":"新浪科技","summary":"新浪科技讯 北京时间3月17日晚间消息，据报道，微软云计算业务遭到了欧洲三家竞争对手的投诉，称微软破坏了云计算服务市场的公平竞争，限制了消费者的选择。这些竞争对手称，微软的合同和商业行为，使得其云计算服务的成本高昂。法国云计算服务提供商OVHCloud在一份声明中证实，该公司正是投诉方之一。此外，OVHCloud的发言人拒绝透露另外两名欧洲原告公司的名称。对此，欧盟委员会证实，已接到相关投诉。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Science and Technology News Beijing time on the evening of March 17th, according to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The cloud computing business has faced complaints from three European competitors, saying that Microsoft has undermined fair competition in the cloud computing service market and restricted consumers' choices.</p><p>These competitors say that Microsoft's contracts and business practices make the cost of its cloud computing services high. But at the same time, it also makes it difficult for its cloud computing service users to choose alternative services from competitors.</p><p>OVHCloud, a French cloud computing service provider, confirmed in a statement that it was one of the complainants. Additionally, a spokesperson for OVHCloud declined to name the other two European plaintiff companies.</p><p>OVHCloud said: \"By abusing its dominant position, Microsoft undermines fair competition in the cloud computing service market and limits consumer choice.\"</p><p>In this regard, the European Commission confirmed that it had received relevant complaints.</p><p>In response, a Microsoft spokesman said in an emailed statement: \"We have been evaluating how we can better support partners and make our software suitable for customers in all environments, including those of other cloud service providers.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft encounters antitrust complaints in EU: cloud computing business accused of undermining market competition</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft encounters antitrust complaints in EU: cloud computing business accused of undermining market competition\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-18 07:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>Science and Technology News Beijing time on the evening of March 17th, according to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The cloud computing business has faced complaints from three European competitors, saying that Microsoft has undermined fair competition in the cloud computing service market and restricted consumers' choices.</p><p>These competitors say that Microsoft's contracts and business practices make the cost of its cloud computing services high. But at the same time, it also makes it difficult for its cloud computing service users to choose alternative services from competitors.</p><p>OVHCloud, a French cloud computing service provider, confirmed in a statement that it was one of the complainants. Additionally, a spokesperson for OVHCloud declined to name the other two European plaintiff companies.</p><p>OVHCloud said: \"By abusing its dominant position, Microsoft undermines fair competition in the cloud computing service market and limits consumer choice.\"</p><p>In this regard, the European Commission confirmed that it had received relevant complaints.</p><p>In response, a Microsoft spokesman said in an emailed statement: \"We have been evaluating how we can better support partners and make our software suitable for customers in all environments, including those of other cloud service providers.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-03-17/detail-imcwipih9090181.d.html?vt=4\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ffcdd31788185eb3014b82161a8fbc","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","MSFT":"微软","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-03-17/detail-imcwipih9090181.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220717739","content_text":"新浪科技讯 北京时间3月17日晚间消息，据报道，微软云计算业务遭到了欧洲三家竞争对手的投诉，称微软破坏了云计算服务市场的公平竞争，限制了消费者的选择。这些竞争对手称，微软的合同和商业行为，使得其云计算服务的成本高昂。但同时，也让其云计算服务用户很难选择竞争对手的替代服务。法国云计算服务提供商OVHCloud在一份声明中证实，该公司正是投诉方之一。此外，OVHCloud的发言人拒绝透露另外两名欧洲原告公司的名称。OVHCloud称：“通过滥用其主导地位，微软破坏了云计算服务市场的公平竞争，限制了消费者的选择。”对此，欧盟委员会证实，已接到相关投诉。对此，微软一位发言人在一封电子邮件声明中称：“我们一直在评估，如何才能更好地支持合作伙伴，让我们的软件适用于所有环境下的客户，包括其他云服务提供商的客户。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035847136,"gmtCreate":1647569456846,"gmtModify":1676534245912,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035847136","repostId":"2220474040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9034573508,"gmtCreate":1647930645739,"gmtModify":1676534281555,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034573508","repostId":"1185192201","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185192201","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647927058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185192201?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-22 13:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Viewpoint | Can profit become the \"hope\" of US stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185192201","media":"中金点睛","summary":"摘要：目前美联储加息已落地，期待美股估值再扩张已不现实，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。年初以来美股表现疲弱，紧缩担忧、俄乌局势、通胀压力轮番压制市场表现。目前美联储在3月FOMC会议上已经开启加息，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At present, the Federal Reserve's rate hike has landed, and it is unrealistic to expect the valuation of U.S. stocks to expand further. The quality of profitability may be the key to the trend of U.S. stocks. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks have performed weakly, with tightening concerns, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and inflationary pressures taking turns to suppress market performance.</p><p><b>At present, the Federal Reserve has started a rate hike at the FOMC meeting in March, and it is unrealistic to expect another valuation expansion, so profitability will become the last defense of US stocks.</b>However, inflationary pressures have not yet eased and demand margins have fallen. Whether profits can withstand the pressure is the key.</p><p>In this regard, we combine the disclosed fourth-quarter results of U.S. stocks to sort out and analyze the cost-side pressure, capital expenditure, and growth prospects that the market is more concerned about.</p><p><b>1. Growth trend: the year-on-year growth rate dropped but still exceeded expectations; Technology, energy and medicine are the main contributors</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The profit growth rate in the fourth quarter dropped due to the base number and the epidemic, but the overall situation still exceeded expectations.</b></p><p></li></ul>On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS growth rate in the fourth quarter was 26.8% year-on-year, down from 36.8% in the third quarter. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 Index's EPS growth rate in the fourth quarter was 22% year-on-year (vs. 45% in the third quarter).</p><p>Taking into account factors such as the base number and the outbreak of the epidemic in Omicron in the fourth quarter, the decline in growth rate is basically expected. However, the overall growth level is still better than the market's expectation of ~ 23% before the beginning of the performance period, and the number of companies exceeding expectations still accounts for 77%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ac651564732a5bf7fccef89af3e31f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Technology, energy and medicine are the main contributions; Diversified finance, banking, etc. lag behind.</b></p><p></li></ul>Driven by the low base and price increases, the EPS growth rate of the energy, transportation, and consumer services sectors exceeded 100% year-on-year, and the growth rate of capital goods and raw materials was as high as 60%. At the same time, semiconductors, media and entertainment, biopharmaceuticals and technology hardware still maintain steady growth of 20% to 40%.</p><p>In terms of contribution, information technology (6.6 ppt), energy (4.4 ppt), medical care (3.7 ppt), communication services (3.1 ppt), and transportation (2.2 ppt) were the main growth contributions in the fourth quarter. Compared with the third quarter, diversified finance, banking, semiconductors and raw materials fell significantly.</p><p>Overall, in the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. stock market has repaired the gap under the impact of the epidemic. At present, only 8 sectors of transportation, consumer services, capital goods, technical hardware, energy, banking, real estate and household goods have not been fully filled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6b4596a4b0bc351d9414fa621901e1\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Cost analysis: The decline in profit margin and the slowdown in revenue are the main reasons for the decline in profit; However, cost pressures outside oil prices have eased</b></p><p>Since the fourth quarter, the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic has caused a new round of impact on the supply chain. At the same time, international oil prices have risen (US $79/barrel at the end of September 2021 vs. approaching US $140/barrel in mid-March 2022), and wage growth has been at a high level (4.8% year-on-year in September 2021 vs. 5.5% at the end of January, falling to 5.1% in February), all of which have caused U.S. inflation to continue to rise (CPI has risen from 5.4% year-on-year at the end of September to 7.9% in February 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f0c4859b436e7c57f28dba3a644ed2\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, we see the micro-level<b>Corporate costs and expenses have also risen</b>, although the financial cost dropped to 3.2% year-on-year under the 12-month static caliber, the sales and management expenses rose to 10% year-on-year, and the main business cost rose to 11%, which made the net profit margin of the non-financial sector in the fourth quarter from 12.4% in the third quarter. The high point dropped to 10.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb971e0914b76e2791ad0dcd35abf42\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96570a1ca8379331df51dc3cb9f3f3bc\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of sectors, the net profit margins of semiconductors, software services and services, biopharmaceuticals, and technical hardware remain high. Media, consumer services, telecommunications services, and public utilities have dropped significantly, but the net profit margins of energy, technical hardware, software and services sectors have increased significantly.</p><p>In addition to the cost side, the revenue of the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 increased by 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, down from 15.9% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Compared with the third quarter, energy, public utilities, real estate and optional consumption income increased year-on-year, but information technology, transportation, raw materials, etc. fell significantly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d1e98ac9bbaaee780dc106c102c21c\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>It is not difficult to see that the fall in profit margins and the slowdown in revenue growth are the main reasons for the decline in performance in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>Looking forward, against the background of slowing overall demand, cost pressure is still the main contradiction in profit prospects, especially against the background of the recent situation in Russia and Ukraine that further disrupts supply and pushes up oil prices.</p><p>However, we cannot generalize this. We need to see that the current profit margin level is still higher than the historical average (the average net profit margin of the S&P 500 index non-financial since 2013 is 10.3%). At the same time, after deducting the impact of oil prices, the inflation of core commodities in the United States is month-on-month (month-on-month fall in February), wage growth (month-on-month zero growth in February), supply chain and epidemic have all improved, so there is some room for pressure easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6e792e149af3c8ed1986e564b284d0\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Growth and asset quality: leverage has dropped and cash in hand is still sufficient; The retail side replenishes inventories rapidly and capital expenditures slow down</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Profit margins dragged down ROE levels in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>On a rolling basis in the past 12 months, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial companies in the fourth quarter continued to rise from 19.9% in the third quarter to 21.7% in the fourth quarter. The further increase in net profit margin is the main contribution to the increase in ROE;<b>Further dismantling shows that the tax burden has increased, the interest expense burden has decreased, and the asset turnover rate has increased.</b></p><p>However, from the perspective of single-quarter changes, affected by the decline in profit margins, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial companies fell to 25.0% in the fourth quarter from 25.3% in the third quarter.</p><p><ul><li><b>Financial leverage fell, but solvency declined slightly.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of the S&P 500 dropped to 72% from 73% in the third quarter, continuing to improve, but the overall interest reserve ratio of non-financial enterprises dropped slightly from 9.97 in the third quarter to 9.42. In terms of industries, the net leverage ratio of public utilities, real estate, and optional consumption is relatively high, while that of information technology, energy, etc. is relatively low, as is interest-bearing liabilities/EBITDA.</p><p><ul><li><b>Cash in hand fell and the scale of bond issuance slowed down.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, cash in hand in the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 accounted for 4.9% of total assets, basically the same as in the third quarter. The energy sector rose significantly, from 6.3% in the third quarter to 12.4% in the fourth quarter; Information technology, communication services, and optional consumption fell slightly compared with the third quarter, but still reached 7% to 10%.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, the non-financial cash in hand of the S&P 500 fell to US $1.95 trillion in the fourth quarter, of which information technology, optional consumption, and communication services accounted for the highest proportion. At the same time, the issuance scale of U.S. corporate credit bonds in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US $304.7 billion, slightly lower than the US $329.2 billion in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63303e8d46098be7b267dcd67e3e88b4\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Retail inventory is quickly replenished, and it may gradually enter the stage of active destocking in the future.</b></p><p></li></ul>The inventory on the retail side has been rapidly replenished since the fourth quarter of 2021. In contrast, the inventory of wholesalers and manufacturers is more sufficient, even at a high level, which partly reflects the poor channels and the time lag in the start of production. This conclusion is also verified by the rapid replenishment of the retail-end inventory-to-sales ratio since the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p><b>Looking forward, we expect that channel easing will further promote terminal inventory replenishment, while capacity utilization will repair and digest manufacturer inventory. If there is no new growth driver (such as capital expenditure) in the future, it will gradually enter the stage of active destocking.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The scale and growth rate of capital expenditure have both declined compared with the third quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of S&P 500 non-financial Capex fell back to 15.6% compared with the third quarter (19.7% in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the year-on-year growth rate of Capex, a sector with abundant cash in hand, has increased significantly compared with the third quarter, such as energy and information technology, but real estate, optional consumption, and medical care have dropped significantly.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, Capex in the fourth quarter fell slightly compared with the third quarter. Among the US $173.8 billion Capex in the non-financial sector in the fourth quarter, retail, media, telecommunications services, semiconductors, and public utilities together accounted for about 50%.</p><p><b>4. Outlook: Slowing profits is the general direction, but it is still early to talk about recession; Upside risks come from capital expenditures, downside risks are inflation and accelerating tightening</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Valuations are likely to continue to shrink, and profitability is currently the main reliance of U.S. stocks.</b></p><p></li></ul>The correction of U.S. stocks since the beginning of the year has been caused by the contraction of valuation (the S&P 500 index has fallen by 6.4% since the beginning of the year, the valuation has contracted by 10.2%, and the profit contribution has been 4.3%; since the epidemic, since the end of 2019, the S&P 500 index has risen by 38.1%, of which the valuation Expansion 5.2%, profit contribution 31.3%).</p><p><b>The current dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 19.2 times, which is at the 82.4% quantile since 1990, and basically at the level before the outbreak in March 2020;</b>Static P/E (21.1 times) is basically at a reasonable level (~ 21.3 times) that can be supported by growth conditions (February ISM manufacturing PMI 58.6) and liquidity (current 10-year US Treasury yields 2.15%).<b>However, under the background that the Federal Reserve has already made a rate hike and will launch a shrinking balance sheet in May, the valuation is likely to maintain a contraction trend.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, the quality of profitability may be the key to the trend of US stocks.</b>Pure monetary policy is not the key to judging the trend of the market, especially in the early stage of rate hike and tightening. What is more important is a clear and stable path.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1596fba746d8eceae0bddb31cce5187d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings are indeed under pressure from slowing growth and rising costs, but it may be too early to talk about a recession.</b></p><p></li></ul>Compared with last year's high base and concentrated stimulus efforts, the overall slowdown in demand was originally due to the trend. In addition, inflation and cost pressures have not yet been completely alleviated, so the overall growth is in a slowing direction. However, there is still a big difference between the slowdown in profit growth and the recession, and the slowdown in growth does not entirely mean the decline of the market.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of gradual improvement in the epidemic situation, inventory repair, and gradual easing of channel congestion, we expect that the overall growth of the United States can still maintain a relatively steady growth although it cannot accelerate.</b>Recently, the near inversion of 2s10s has triggered recession concerns, but we think it may be somewhat distorted. More importantly, except for government departments, the leverage level of financial, corporate and residential sectors in the United States is generally low, so they do not face the risk of large-scale deleveraging.</p><p>Currently, the market consensus expects U.S. stocks to grow their full-year earnings by 9.1% in 2022 (vs. 50.3% in 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e61cd8e6ec1ffbcea36d49380d56aee\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The downside risk comes from the situation between Russia and Ukraine or other unexpected supply shocks that further amplify and last longer.</b>Make the far-end inflation path higher and prolonged, forcing a sharp tightening of monetary policy, which will put greater pressure on overall growth and the market.</p><p>Without the influence of the Russia-Ukraine incident, apparent inflation may gradually fall after March due to the high base and the improvement of the epidemic. The rise in commodity prices caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine has delayed the arrival of the high inflation point (we estimate that it will be delayed by about one month), but it still falls back.</p><p>If it is upgraded again, the market needs to revise the long-term rate hike expectations, which will put interest rates at an upward risk (we estimate that the long-term Treasury Bond will hit a high of 2.3 ~ 2.4%), thereby suppressing profitability and risk appetite</p><p><ul><li><b>The upside risk comes from the start of corporate capital expenditures.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>If it is opened, it will not only provide new growth momentum, but also provide a way out for the current excess liquidity and resolve cost pressures through growth. At present, American companies have the ability and demand, but the production capacity and inventory conditions are not yet available. We expect the verification point to be around the second quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Viewpoint | Can profit become the \"hope\" of US stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nViewpoint | Can profit become the \"hope\" of US stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-22 13:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At present, the Federal Reserve's rate hike has landed, and it is unrealistic to expect the valuation of U.S. stocks to expand further. The quality of profitability may be the key to the trend of U.S. stocks. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks have performed weakly, with tightening concerns, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and inflationary pressures taking turns to suppress market performance.</p><p><b>At present, the Federal Reserve has started a rate hike at the FOMC meeting in March, and it is unrealistic to expect another valuation expansion, so profitability will become the last defense of US stocks.</b>However, inflationary pressures have not yet eased and demand margins have fallen. Whether profits can withstand the pressure is the key.</p><p>In this regard, we combine the disclosed fourth-quarter results of U.S. stocks to sort out and analyze the cost-side pressure, capital expenditure, and growth prospects that the market is more concerned about.</p><p><b>1. Growth trend: the year-on-year growth rate dropped but still exceeded expectations; Technology, energy and medicine are the main contributors</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The profit growth rate in the fourth quarter dropped due to the base number and the epidemic, but the overall situation still exceeded expectations.</b></p><p></li></ul>On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS growth rate in the fourth quarter was 26.8% year-on-year, down from 36.8% in the third quarter. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 Index's EPS growth rate in the fourth quarter was 22% year-on-year (vs. 45% in the third quarter).</p><p>Taking into account factors such as the base number and the outbreak of the epidemic in Omicron in the fourth quarter, the decline in growth rate is basically expected. However, the overall growth level is still better than the market's expectation of ~ 23% before the beginning of the performance period, and the number of companies exceeding expectations still accounts for 77%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ac651564732a5bf7fccef89af3e31f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Technology, energy and medicine are the main contributions; Diversified finance, banking, etc. lag behind.</b></p><p></li></ul>Driven by the low base and price increases, the EPS growth rate of the energy, transportation, and consumer services sectors exceeded 100% year-on-year, and the growth rate of capital goods and raw materials was as high as 60%. At the same time, semiconductors, media and entertainment, biopharmaceuticals and technology hardware still maintain steady growth of 20% to 40%.</p><p>In terms of contribution, information technology (6.6 ppt), energy (4.4 ppt), medical care (3.7 ppt), communication services (3.1 ppt), and transportation (2.2 ppt) were the main growth contributions in the fourth quarter. Compared with the third quarter, diversified finance, banking, semiconductors and raw materials fell significantly.</p><p>Overall, in the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. stock market has repaired the gap under the impact of the epidemic. At present, only 8 sectors of transportation, consumer services, capital goods, technical hardware, energy, banking, real estate and household goods have not been fully filled.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6b4596a4b0bc351d9414fa621901e1\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Cost analysis: The decline in profit margin and the slowdown in revenue are the main reasons for the decline in profit; However, cost pressures outside oil prices have eased</b></p><p>Since the fourth quarter, the outbreak of the Omicron epidemic has caused a new round of impact on the supply chain. At the same time, international oil prices have risen (US $79/barrel at the end of September 2021 vs. approaching US $140/barrel in mid-March 2022), and wage growth has been at a high level (4.8% year-on-year in September 2021 vs. 5.5% at the end of January, falling to 5.1% in February), all of which have caused U.S. inflation to continue to rise (CPI has risen from 5.4% year-on-year at the end of September to 7.9% in February 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f0c4859b436e7c57f28dba3a644ed2\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, we see the micro-level<b>Corporate costs and expenses have also risen</b>, although the financial cost dropped to 3.2% year-on-year under the 12-month static caliber, the sales and management expenses rose to 10% year-on-year, and the main business cost rose to 11%, which made the net profit margin of the non-financial sector in the fourth quarter from 12.4% in the third quarter. The high point dropped to 10.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb971e0914b76e2791ad0dcd35abf42\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96570a1ca8379331df51dc3cb9f3f3bc\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of sectors, the net profit margins of semiconductors, software services and services, biopharmaceuticals, and technical hardware remain high. Media, consumer services, telecommunications services, and public utilities have dropped significantly, but the net profit margins of energy, technical hardware, software and services sectors have increased significantly.</p><p>In addition to the cost side, the revenue of the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 increased by 14% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, down from 15.9% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Compared with the third quarter, energy, public utilities, real estate and optional consumption income increased year-on-year, but information technology, transportation, raw materials, etc. fell significantly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d1e98ac9bbaaee780dc106c102c21c\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>It is not difficult to see that the fall in profit margins and the slowdown in revenue growth are the main reasons for the decline in performance in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p>Looking forward, against the background of slowing overall demand, cost pressure is still the main contradiction in profit prospects, especially against the background of the recent situation in Russia and Ukraine that further disrupts supply and pushes up oil prices.</p><p>However, we cannot generalize this. We need to see that the current profit margin level is still higher than the historical average (the average net profit margin of the S&P 500 index non-financial since 2013 is 10.3%). At the same time, after deducting the impact of oil prices, the inflation of core commodities in the United States is month-on-month (month-on-month fall in February), wage growth (month-on-month zero growth in February), supply chain and epidemic have all improved, so there is some room for pressure easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6e792e149af3c8ed1986e564b284d0\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Growth and asset quality: leverage has dropped and cash in hand is still sufficient; The retail side replenishes inventories rapidly and capital expenditures slow down</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Profit margins dragged down ROE levels in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>On a rolling basis in the past 12 months, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial companies in the fourth quarter continued to rise from 19.9% in the third quarter to 21.7% in the fourth quarter. The further increase in net profit margin is the main contribution to the increase in ROE;<b>Further dismantling shows that the tax burden has increased, the interest expense burden has decreased, and the asset turnover rate has increased.</b></p><p>However, from the perspective of single-quarter changes, affected by the decline in profit margins, the ROE of S&P 500 non-financial companies fell to 25.0% in the fourth quarter from 25.3% in the third quarter.</p><p><ul><li><b>Financial leverage fell, but solvency declined slightly.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of the S&P 500 dropped to 72% from 73% in the third quarter, continuing to improve, but the overall interest reserve ratio of non-financial enterprises dropped slightly from 9.97 in the third quarter to 9.42. In terms of industries, the net leverage ratio of public utilities, real estate, and optional consumption is relatively high, while that of information technology, energy, etc. is relatively low, as is interest-bearing liabilities/EBITDA.</p><p><ul><li><b>Cash in hand fell and the scale of bond issuance slowed down.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, cash in hand in the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 accounted for 4.9% of total assets, basically the same as in the third quarter. The energy sector rose significantly, from 6.3% in the third quarter to 12.4% in the fourth quarter; Information technology, communication services, and optional consumption fell slightly compared with the third quarter, but still reached 7% to 10%.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, the non-financial cash in hand of the S&P 500 fell to US $1.95 trillion in the fourth quarter, of which information technology, optional consumption, and communication services accounted for the highest proportion. At the same time, the issuance scale of U.S. corporate credit bonds in the fourth quarter of 2021 was US $304.7 billion, slightly lower than the US $329.2 billion in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63303e8d46098be7b267dcd67e3e88b4\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Retail inventory is quickly replenished, and it may gradually enter the stage of active destocking in the future.</b></p><p></li></ul>The inventory on the retail side has been rapidly replenished since the fourth quarter of 2021. In contrast, the inventory of wholesalers and manufacturers is more sufficient, even at a high level, which partly reflects the poor channels and the time lag in the start of production. This conclusion is also verified by the rapid replenishment of the retail-end inventory-to-sales ratio since the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p><b>Looking forward, we expect that channel easing will further promote terminal inventory replenishment, while capacity utilization will repair and digest manufacturer inventory. If there is no new growth driver (such as capital expenditure) in the future, it will gradually enter the stage of active destocking.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>The scale and growth rate of capital expenditure have both declined compared with the third quarter.</b></p><p></li></ul>In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of S&P 500 non-financial Capex fell back to 15.6% compared with the third quarter (19.7% in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the year-on-year growth rate of Capex, a sector with abundant cash in hand, has increased significantly compared with the third quarter, such as energy and information technology, but real estate, optional consumption, and medical care have dropped significantly.</p><p>In terms of absolute scale, Capex in the fourth quarter fell slightly compared with the third quarter. Among the US $173.8 billion Capex in the non-financial sector in the fourth quarter, retail, media, telecommunications services, semiconductors, and public utilities together accounted for about 50%.</p><p><b>4. Outlook: Slowing profits is the general direction, but it is still early to talk about recession; Upside risks come from capital expenditures, downside risks are inflation and accelerating tightening</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Valuations are likely to continue to shrink, and profitability is currently the main reliance of U.S. stocks.</b></p><p></li></ul>The correction of U.S. stocks since the beginning of the year has been caused by the contraction of valuation (the S&P 500 index has fallen by 6.4% since the beginning of the year, the valuation has contracted by 10.2%, and the profit contribution has been 4.3%; since the epidemic, since the end of 2019, the S&P 500 index has risen by 38.1%, of which the valuation Expansion 5.2%, profit contribution 31.3%).</p><p><b>The current dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 19.2 times, which is at the 82.4% quantile since 1990, and basically at the level before the outbreak in March 2020;</b>Static P/E (21.1 times) is basically at a reasonable level (~ 21.3 times) that can be supported by growth conditions (February ISM manufacturing PMI 58.6) and liquidity (current 10-year US Treasury yields 2.15%).<b>However, under the background that the Federal Reserve has already made a rate hike and will launch a shrinking balance sheet in May, the valuation is likely to maintain a contraction trend.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, the quality of profitability may be the key to the trend of US stocks.</b>Pure monetary policy is not the key to judging the trend of the market, especially in the early stage of rate hike and tightening. What is more important is a clear and stable path.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1596fba746d8eceae0bddb31cce5187d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings are indeed under pressure from slowing growth and rising costs, but it may be too early to talk about a recession.</b></p><p></li></ul>Compared with last year's high base and concentrated stimulus efforts, the overall slowdown in demand was originally due to the trend. In addition, inflation and cost pressures have not yet been completely alleviated, so the overall growth is in a slowing direction. However, there is still a big difference between the slowdown in profit growth and the recession, and the slowdown in growth does not entirely mean the decline of the market.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of gradual improvement in the epidemic situation, inventory repair, and gradual easing of channel congestion, we expect that the overall growth of the United States can still maintain a relatively steady growth although it cannot accelerate.</b>Recently, the near inversion of 2s10s has triggered recession concerns, but we think it may be somewhat distorted. More importantly, except for government departments, the leverage level of financial, corporate and residential sectors in the United States is generally low, so they do not face the risk of large-scale deleveraging.</p><p>Currently, the market consensus expects U.S. stocks to grow their full-year earnings by 9.1% in 2022 (vs. 50.3% in 2021).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e61cd8e6ec1ffbcea36d49380d56aee\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The downside risk comes from the situation between Russia and Ukraine or other unexpected supply shocks that further amplify and last longer.</b>Make the far-end inflation path higher and prolonged, forcing a sharp tightening of monetary policy, which will put greater pressure on overall growth and the market.</p><p>Without the influence of the Russia-Ukraine incident, apparent inflation may gradually fall after March due to the high base and the improvement of the epidemic. The rise in commodity prices caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine has delayed the arrival of the high inflation point (we estimate that it will be delayed by about one month), but it still falls back.</p><p>If it is upgraded again, the market needs to revise the long-term rate hike expectations, which will put interest rates at an upward risk (we estimate that the long-term Treasury Bond will hit a high of 2.3 ~ 2.4%), thereby suppressing profitability and risk appetite</p><p><ul><li><b>The upside risk comes from the start of corporate capital expenditures.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>If it is opened, it will not only provide new growth momentum, but also provide a way out for the current excess liquidity and resolve cost pressures through growth. At present, American companies have the ability and demand, but the production capacity and inventory conditions are not yet available. We expect the verification point to be around the second quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PbH4l7SMcZNU0foQFj09qQ\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PbH4l7SMcZNU0foQFj09qQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185192201","content_text":"摘要：目前美联储加息已落地，期待美股估值再扩张已不现实，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。年初以来美股表现疲弱，紧缩担忧、俄乌局势、通胀压力轮番压制市场表现。目前美联储在3月FOMC会议上已经开启加息，期待估值再度扩张已不现实，因此盈利就将成为美股「最后的防御」。但通胀压力尚未缓解、需求边际回落下，盈利能否抵住压力是关键。就此，我们结合已披露完毕的美股四季度业绩，针对市场较为关心的成本端压力、资本开支、增长前景做出梳理分析。1、增长趋势：同比增速回落但仍超预期；科技能源及医药是主要贡献基数和疫情下四季度盈利增速回落，但整体仍超预期。可比口径下，标普500四季度EPS同比增速26.8%，较三季度36.8%回落。类似的，纳斯达克100指数四季度EPS同比增速为22%（vs. 三季度的45%）。考虑到基数和四季度奥密克戎疫情爆发等因素，增速回落也基本在意料之内。不过，整体增长水平依然好于业绩期开始前市场~23%的预期，超预期公司数占比仍有77%。科技能源及医药是主要贡献；多元金融、银行等落后。受低基数和涨价驱动，能源、交通运输、消费者服务板块EPS同比增速超过100%，资本品及原材料增速也高达60%。与此同时，半导体、媒体与娱乐、生物制药及科技硬件依然维持20%~40%的稳健增长。从贡献程度看，信息科技（6.6ppt）、能源（4.4ppt）、医疗保健（3.7ppt）、通讯服务（3.1ppt）、交通运输（2.2ppt）是四季度主要增长贡献。相比三季度，多元金融、银行、半导体及原材料回落较为明显。整体来看，2021年三季度美股就已经修复了疫情冲击下的「缺口」，目前仅剩交通运输、消费服务、资本品、技术硬件、能源、银行、房地产及家庭用品这8个板块仍未完全填平。2、成本分析：利润率回落叠加收入趋缓是盈利下滑主因；不过油价外成本压力有所趋缓四季度以来，奥密克戎疫情爆发对供应链造成了新一轮冲击，同时国际油价走高（2021年9月底79美元/桶 vs. 2022年月3月中逼近140美元/桶）、工资增速处于高位（2021年9月同比4.8% vs. 1月底5.5%，2月降至5.1%），都使得美国通胀持续走高（CPI同比从9月底的5.4%一路走高至2022年2月的7.9%）。这一背景下，我们看到微观层面的企业成本和费用也有所抬升，虽然12个月静态口径下财务成本同比降至3.2%，但销售管理费用同比升至10%、主营业务成本抬升至11%，这使得四季度非金融板块净利润率从三季度12.4%高点降至10.6%。分板块看，半导体、软件服务与服务、生物制药、技术硬件净利润率仍维持高位，媒体、消费者服务、电信服务、公用事业回落明显，但能源、技术硬件、软件与服务等板块净利润率抬升显著。除了成本端外，四季度标普500非金融板块收入同比增长14%，较三季度的15.9%回落。相比三季度，能源、公用事业、房地产及可选消费收入同比抬升，但信息科技、交通运输、原材料等回落明显。不难看出，利润率回落叠加收入增速趋缓是四季度业绩下滑的主要原因。往前看，在整体需求趋缓的大背景下，成本的压力依然是盈利前景的主要矛盾，尤其是近期俄乌局势进一步扰乱供给推高油价的背景下。不过，也不能因此就一概而论，需要看到当前利润率水平依然高于历史平均（标普500指数非金融2013年以来净利润率均值10.3%），同时扣除掉油价影响的美国核心商品通胀环比（2月环比回落）、薪资增速（2月环比零增长）、供应链和疫情都已经改善，故存在部分压力缓和空间。3、增长与资产质量：杠杆回落、在手现金依然充足；零售端补库迅速，资本开支趋缓利润率拖累四季度ROE水平回落。过去12个月滚动口径下，四季度标普500非金融企业ROE从三季度的19.9%继续抬升至四季度的21.7%，净利润率的进一步攀升是ROE抬升的主要贡献；进一步拆解来看，税负抬升、利息费用负担下降、资产周转率抬升。不过从单季度变化看，受利润率回落影响，四季度标普500非金融企业ROE从三季度25.3%降至25.0%。财务杠杆回落，但偿付能力微降。四季度标普500非金融整体净杠杆率（净债务/净资产）从三季度的73%降至72%，继续改善，但非金融企业整体利息备付率从三季度的9.97微降至9.42。分行业看，公用事业、房地产、可选消费净杠杆率偏高，信息技术、能源等相对偏低，有息负债/EBITDA亦是如此。在手现金回落、发债规模放缓。四季度标普500非金融板块在手现金占总资产比例4.9%，基本持平于三季度。能源板块抬升明显，从三季度的6.3%抬升至四季度12.4%；信息科技、通讯服务、可选消费较三季度略有回落，但仍达7%~10%。绝对规模看，四季度标普500非金融在手现金降至1.95万亿美元，其中信息科技、可选消费、通讯服务占比最高。与此同时，2021年四季度美国企业信用债发行规模3047亿美元，略低于三季度的3292亿美元。零售库存快速回补，未来或逐步进入主动去库存阶段。零售端库存自2021年四季度以来快速回补，相比之下，批发商和生产商库存则更为充足，甚至处于高位，部分体现渠道的不畅和生产端开工的时滞。零售端库销比自2021年四季度以来同样快速回补也验证了这一结论。往后看，我们预计渠道缓解进一步将推动终端库存回补、同时产能利用率修复消化生产商库存。如果后续没有新的增长动力（如资本开支），将逐步进入主动去库存阶段。资本开支规模及增速较三季度均有所回落。四季度标普500非金融Capex同比增速较三季度回落至15.6%（三季度19.7%）。分板块看，企业在手现金充裕的板块Capex同比增速较三季度抬升显著，如能源和信息科技，但房地产、可选消费、医疗保健回落明显。绝对规模看，四季度Capex较三季度略有回落，四季度非金融板块1738亿美元的Capex中，零售、媒体、电信服务、半导体、公用事业合计占比约50%4、前景展望：盈利趋缓是大方向，但谈衰退尚早；上行风险来自资本开支，下行风险为通胀和紧缩加速估值大概率继续收缩，盈利是美股当前的主要依靠。年初以来美股回调均由估值收缩所致（标普500指数年初以来下跌6.4%，估值收缩10.2%，盈利贡献4.3%；疫情以来，2019年底至今，标普500指数上涨38.1%，其中估值扩张5.2%，盈利贡献31.3%）。当前标普500指数动态估值为19.2倍，处于1990年以来82.4%分位数，且基本位于2020年3月疫情爆发前水平；静态P/E（21.1倍）基本位于增长条件（2月ISM制造业PMI 58.6）和流动性（当前10年美债利率 2.15%）能够支撑的合理水平（~21.3倍），但在当前美联储已经加息并将于5月启动缩表的背景下，估值大概率维持收缩态势。因此，盈利的好坏或将是美股走势的关键。单纯货币政策但并非判断市场走向的关键，尤其是在加息和收紧初期，更关键的是一个清晰而稳定的路径。盈利的确面临增长趋缓和成本抬升的压力，但谈衰退可能尚早。相比去年的高基数和刺激集中发力，需求整体放缓原本也是趋势使然，再加上通胀和成本压力尚未完全缓解，因此增长整体处于趋缓方向。不过盈利增速的放缓和衰退还是有很大区别，增速的放缓也不完全意味着市场的下跌。在疫情逐步改善、库存修复、渠道阻塞逐步缓解的背景下，我们预计美国整体增长虽然无法加速但仍能维持一个相对稳健的增长。近期2s10s临近倒挂引发衰退担忧，但我们认为可能有些失真。更重要的是，除了政府部门外，美国金融、企业和居民部门的杠杆水平整体偏低，因此不面临大规模的去杠杆风险。当前，市场一致预期预计美股2022年全年盈利增长9.1%（vs. 2021年50.3%）。下行风险来自俄乌局势或者其他意料之外的供应冲击进一步放大并持续更长时间，使得远端通胀路径走高并延长、迫使货币政策大幅收紧，这将会给整体增长和市场带来更大压力。在没有俄乌事件影响下，表观通胀可能在高基数和疫情改善作用下3月后逐步回落。俄乌局势导致的大宗商品价格上冲已经将推后通胀高点的到来（我们测算延后1个月左右），但依然还是回落的。如果再度升级，市场就需要重新修正「远端」加息预期，进而使得利率有上行风险（我们测算长端国债摸高2.3~2.4%），进而压制盈利和风险偏好上行风险来自企业资本开支开启。如果开启将不仅提供新的增长动力，也能为当前过剩流动性提供「出路」，通过增长化解成本压力。当前美国企业有能力也有需求，但产能和库存条件尚不具备，我们预计验证点在二季度左右。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":476732408144704,"gmtCreate":1757396180835,"gmtModify":1757396184293,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a 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Materials Inc.(MMAT)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"$Meta Materials Inc.(MMAT)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923757766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":475198024462488,"gmtCreate":1757038724282,"gmtModify":1757038726522,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00697\">$首程控股(00697)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00697\">$首程控股(00697)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$首程控股(00697)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f62c156d07019306d5e7552cfe4653c6","width":"1010","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/475198024462488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080042070,"gmtCreate":1649823677040,"gmtModify":1676534584683,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080042070","repostId":"2227566789","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017340136,"gmtCreate":1649750321351,"gmtModify":1676534564217,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017340136","repostId":"2226655257","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2226655257","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649750092,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2226655257?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-12 15:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nvidia is looked down on: Chinese players don't buy it, and graphics card prices will have to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2226655257","media":"快科技","summary":"近期消费级GPU的订单开始取消，原因与多种因素有关。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>NVIDIA's stock price plunged 5% last night, because analysts were bearish. Tristan Gerra, an analyst at Baird, an American investment bank and financial services company, downgraded its stock score to neutral. The root cause behind it is that there are too many inventories of graphics chips, and prices will continue to fall.</p><p>According to Tristan Gerra's report, orders for consumer-grade GPUs have begun to be cancelled recently due to a variety of factors, including excess inventory, slowing demand, declining computer demand, and more.</p><p><b>In addition, there are</b>Two factors have a great impact. One is Russia's embargo measures, and the other is the sharp drop in demand in the Chinese market. The domestic market accounts for 25% to 30% of the consumer GPU chip market, which has a great impact.</p><p>Judging from analysts' statements, in addition to the factors of declining overall market demand, an important reason affecting the price of graphics cards at present is the demand of consumers in the domestic market.<b>In the current situation, players don't buy it very much, and the price of graphics cards will continue to fall.</b></p><p>This will also affect NVIDIA's performance in the next quarter. As of July this year, the revenue in the Q2 fiscal quarter may only increase slightly, and the Q3 quarter will see a median decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d0bbf0010bcf779745b72f8552ddeb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"kkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia is looked down on: Chinese players don't buy it, and graphics card prices will have to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia is looked down on: Chinese players don't buy it, and graphics card prices will have to fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">快科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-12 15:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>NVIDIA's stock price plunged 5% last night, because analysts were bearish. Tristan Gerra, an analyst at Baird, an American investment bank and financial services company, downgraded its stock score to neutral. The root cause behind it is that there are too many inventories of graphics chips, and prices will continue to fall.</p><p>According to Tristan Gerra's report, orders for consumer-grade GPUs have begun to be cancelled recently due to a variety of factors, including excess inventory, slowing demand, declining computer demand, and more.</p><p><b>In addition, there are</b>Two factors have a great impact. One is Russia's embargo measures, and the other is the sharp drop in demand in the Chinese market. The domestic market accounts for 25% to 30% of the consumer GPU chip market, which has a great impact.</p><p>Judging from analysts' statements, in addition to the factors of declining overall market demand, an important reason affecting the price of graphics cards at present is the demand of consumers in the domestic market.<b>In the current situation, players don't buy it very much, and the price of graphics cards will continue to fall.</b></p><p>This will also affect NVIDIA's performance in the next quarter. As of July this year, the revenue in the Q2 fiscal quarter may only increase slightly, and the Q3 quarter will see a median decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d0bbf0010bcf779745b72f8552ddeb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2022041214441279ae9c3f&s=b\">快科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2022041214441279ae9c3f&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2226655257","content_text":"NVIDIA公司股价昨晚重挫5%，原因是被分析师看衰，美国投资银行与金融服务公司贝雅(Baird)的分析师杰拉(Tristan Gerra)将其股票评分下调到中立，背后的根源则是显卡芯片库存过多，价格还会继续下跌。根据Tristan Gerra的报告，近期消费级GPU的订单开始取消，原因与多种因素有关，包括库存过剩、需求放缓、电脑需求下降等等。此外还有2个因素影响很大，一个是俄罗斯的禁运措施，另一个则是中国市场的需求大降，国内市场占了消费类GPU芯片市场的25%到30%份额，影响非常大。从分析师的表态来看，除了整体市场需求下滑的因素之外，目前影响显卡价格的一个重要原因就是国内市场消费者的需求了，在当前局面下玩家不太买账，显卡价格还要继续跌了。这也会导致NVIDIA接下来的季度中业绩受到影响，截止今年7月份的Q2财季中营收可能只会有微幅增长，Q3季度则会出现中位数的下滑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035847630,"gmtCreate":1647569489331,"gmtModify":1676534245918,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035847630","repostId":"2220717739","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035847136,"gmtCreate":1647569456846,"gmtModify":1676534245912,"author":{"id":"4092521421596580","authorId":"4092521421596580","name":"ZIYOUZHE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2077aa3c1e0657c6a0df8ed9f48a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092521421596580","idStr":"4092521421596580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035847136","repostId":"2220474040","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220474040","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647565143,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220474040?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-18 08:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"China Concept Internet ETF once again hit the daily limit. Is there an opportunity for China Concept Stocks coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220474040","media":"中证报","summary":"中概股终于涨了，多只中概互联ETF连续两日涨停，中概股的机会又回来了？中概股反弹，中概互联ETF也随之上演了大反转。3月17日，广发中证海外中国互联网30ETF、嘉实中证海外中国互联网30ETF再度涨停，易方达中证海外互联ETF涨幅达7.35%。3月16日，上述3只ETF悉数涨停。在中概互联ETF迎来大涨后，投资者更是颇具申购热情。夏浩洋也提醒投资者，近期在场内交易中概互联相关ETF时，需重点关注相关产品的折溢价对投资可能会带来的影响。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Chinese concept stocks finally rose, and many Chinese concept stocks are interconnected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>With the daily limit for two consecutive days, the opportunity for Chinese concept stocks is back?</p><p>Fund managers believe that Internet companies will still play a long-term role and continue to innovate and grow, and high-quality companies in Chinese concept stocks still have a solid fundamental foundation.</p><p><b>Zhonggai Internet ETF continues to rebound</b></p><p>In the Hong Kong stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>On March 16 and 17, it rose by 23.15% and 6.81% respectively, and Meituan rose by 32.08% and 14.57% respectively on March 16 and 17.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The group rose 35.64% and 18.58% on March 16 and 17, respectively. In the U.S. stock market, on March 16, local time, Ali rose 36.76%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Rose 39.20%, JD.com rose 39.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It even rose 56.06%.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks rebounded, and China Concept Internet ETF also staged a big reversal. On March 17, GF CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF and Harvest CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF hit their daily limit again, and E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF rose by 7.35%. On March 16, the above three ETFs all reached their daily limit.</p><p>It is worth noting that many China Concept Internet ETFs have experienced discounts. As of the close on March 17, the discount rate of GF CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF was 9.91%, and the discount rate of Harvest CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF was 9.28%.</p><p>Previously, the net value of China Concept Internet ETF fell sharply. From March 1 to 15, GF CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF fell 33.01%, Harvest CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF fell 32.40%, and E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF fell 24.45%.</p><p><b>Subscription enthusiasm is high</b></p><p>Although China Concept Internet ETF has experienced ups and downs recently, investors have always favored China Concept Internet ETF. Wind data shows that as of March 16, the share of E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF has increased by 8.560 billion this year, making it the fourth-largest ETF in terms of share increase this year. The shares of GF CSI Overseas China Internet 30ETF and Harvest CSI Overseas China Internet 30ETF increased by 2.258 billion and 273 million respectively.</p><p>After the China Concept Internet ETF ushered in a surge, investors were even more enthusiastic about subscribing. However, some fund companies have suggested related risks. E Fund issued two premium risk warning announcements on March 16th and 17th. In the announcement on the 17th, E Fund stated that recently, the secondary market transaction price of E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF has fluctuated greatly. On March 16, the closing price of the fund in the secondary market was 0.952 yuan, a premium of 25.93% relative to the reference net value of fund shares (IOPV) on that day. Investors are hereby reminded to pay attention to the risk of transaction price premium in the secondary market. If they invest blindly, they may suffer heavy losses.</p><p>High-quality Chinese concept stocks have a solid fundamental foundation</p><p>After the previous adjustment, have Chinese concept stocks ushered in better investment opportunities?</p><p>Harvest Fund said that due to external factors such as international geopolitical conflicts, the previous sharp decline in Chinese concept stocks was accidental. From an investment perspective, the volatility of technology growth stocks represented by Chinese concept stocks is relatively large, and the volatility of emerging markets is greater than that of developed markets, and the volatility of offshore markets is also higher than that of onshore markets. Overall, the current stock price decline of Chinese concept stocks is affected by news and emotional trading, but high-quality companies still have a solid fundamental foundation and have little to do with the valuation itself. Harvest Fund believes that when the market is adjusting, there will always be many irrational voices or emotions, especially the adjustments and fluctuations caused by accidental factors, which are just twists and turns on the long-term road to improvement. I believe this state will not last long, and I am still very confident in the high-quality companies.</p><p>A fund manager pointed out that in 2021, global policies on the Internet industry will be intensively introduced, mainly focusing on anti-monopoly, data security, personal privacy protection and other fields. Looking forward to 2022, under the background of stabilizing growth and emphasizing the important role of the digital economy, the domestic policy context for the Internet industry is gradually becoming clear. Future supervision will be a more systematic and normalized process, which is an important guarantee for the healthy development of the industry. Reflecting the stock price, the valuation of Internet companies has been significantly reduced. In terms of performance, the performance of Internet companies in 2021 will be under pressure due to factors such as the restriction of the epidemic on consumption and the adjustment of business structure under regulatory policies. After more than 10 years of rapid development, the Internet industry as a whole has entered the late growth stage, and the long-term valuation center is expected to fall back. After entering the mature stage, the performance stability of leading Internet companies is expected to be enhanced and their performance will be more resilient.</p><p>Xia Haoyang, fund manager of GF CSI Overseas China Internet 30ETF, also said that the impact of the \"Foreign Company Accountability Law\" on Chinese concept stocks is relatively limited. The current Chinese concept Internet sector has entered a period of macroeconomic and performance dominance, and future trends can focus on performance repair situation. In the long run, the Internet, as an important infrastructure for the national economy and people's livelihood, will continue to play a long-term role and continue to innovate and grow, whether it is the digital economy that will be advocated for a long time in the future or the future-oriented metaverse industry trend.</p><p>Xia Haoyang also reminded investors that when connecting related ETFs in on-market transactions in the near future, they need to focus on the possible impact of discounts and premiums on related products on investment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Concept Internet ETF once again hit the daily limit. Is there an opportunity for China Concept Stocks coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Concept Internet ETF once again hit the daily limit. Is there an opportunity for China Concept Stocks coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中证报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-18 08:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Chinese concept stocks finally rose, and many Chinese concept stocks are interconnected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>With the daily limit for two consecutive days, the opportunity for Chinese concept stocks is back?</p><p>Fund managers believe that Internet companies will still play a long-term role and continue to innovate and grow, and high-quality companies in Chinese concept stocks still have a solid fundamental foundation.</p><p><b>Zhonggai Internet ETF continues to rebound</b></p><p>In the Hong Kong stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>On March 16 and 17, it rose by 23.15% and 6.81% respectively, and Meituan rose by 32.08% and 14.57% respectively on March 16 and 17.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The group rose 35.64% and 18.58% on March 16 and 17, respectively. In the U.S. stock market, on March 16, local time, Ali rose 36.76%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Rose 39.20%, JD.com rose 39.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It even rose 56.06%.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks rebounded, and China Concept Internet ETF also staged a big reversal. On March 17, GF CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF and Harvest CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF hit their daily limit again, and E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF rose by 7.35%. On March 16, the above three ETFs all reached their daily limit.</p><p>It is worth noting that many China Concept Internet ETFs have experienced discounts. As of the close on March 17, the discount rate of GF CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF was 9.91%, and the discount rate of Harvest CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF was 9.28%.</p><p>Previously, the net value of China Concept Internet ETF fell sharply. From March 1 to 15, GF CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF fell 33.01%, Harvest CSI Overseas China Internet 30 ETF fell 32.40%, and E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF fell 24.45%.</p><p><b>Subscription enthusiasm is high</b></p><p>Although China Concept Internet ETF has experienced ups and downs recently, investors have always favored China Concept Internet ETF. Wind data shows that as of March 16, the share of E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF has increased by 8.560 billion this year, making it the fourth-largest ETF in terms of share increase this year. The shares of GF CSI Overseas China Internet 30ETF and Harvest CSI Overseas China Internet 30ETF increased by 2.258 billion and 273 million respectively.</p><p>After the China Concept Internet ETF ushered in a surge, investors were even more enthusiastic about subscribing. However, some fund companies have suggested related risks. E Fund issued two premium risk warning announcements on March 16th and 17th. In the announcement on the 17th, E Fund stated that recently, the secondary market transaction price of E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF has fluctuated greatly. On March 16, the closing price of the fund in the secondary market was 0.952 yuan, a premium of 25.93% relative to the reference net value of fund shares (IOPV) on that day. Investors are hereby reminded to pay attention to the risk of transaction price premium in the secondary market. If they invest blindly, they may suffer heavy losses.</p><p>High-quality Chinese concept stocks have a solid fundamental foundation</p><p>After the previous adjustment, have Chinese concept stocks ushered in better investment opportunities?</p><p>Harvest Fund said that due to external factors such as international geopolitical conflicts, the previous sharp decline in Chinese concept stocks was accidental. From an investment perspective, the volatility of technology growth stocks represented by Chinese concept stocks is relatively large, and the volatility of emerging markets is greater than that of developed markets, and the volatility of offshore markets is also higher than that of onshore markets. Overall, the current stock price decline of Chinese concept stocks is affected by news and emotional trading, but high-quality companies still have a solid fundamental foundation and have little to do with the valuation itself. Harvest Fund believes that when the market is adjusting, there will always be many irrational voices or emotions, especially the adjustments and fluctuations caused by accidental factors, which are just twists and turns on the long-term road to improvement. I believe this state will not last long, and I am still very confident in the high-quality companies.</p><p>A fund manager pointed out that in 2021, global policies on the Internet industry will be intensively introduced, mainly focusing on anti-monopoly, data security, personal privacy protection and other fields. Looking forward to 2022, under the background of stabilizing growth and emphasizing the important role of the digital economy, the domestic policy context for the Internet industry is gradually becoming clear. Future supervision will be a more systematic and normalized process, which is an important guarantee for the healthy development of the industry. Reflecting the stock price, the valuation of Internet companies has been significantly reduced. In terms of performance, the performance of Internet companies in 2021 will be under pressure due to factors such as the restriction of the epidemic on consumption and the adjustment of business structure under regulatory policies. After more than 10 years of rapid development, the Internet industry as a whole has entered the late growth stage, and the long-term valuation center is expected to fall back. After entering the mature stage, the performance stability of leading Internet companies is expected to be enhanced and their performance will be more resilient.</p><p>Xia Haoyang, fund manager of GF CSI Overseas China Internet 30ETF, also said that the impact of the \"Foreign Company Accountability Law\" on Chinese concept stocks is relatively limited. The current Chinese concept Internet sector has entered a period of macroeconomic and performance dominance, and future trends can focus on performance repair situation. In the long run, the Internet, as an important infrastructure for the national economy and people's livelihood, will continue to play a long-term role and continue to innovate and grow, whether it is the digital economy that will be advocated for a long time in the future or the future-oriented metaverse industry trend.</p><p>Xia Haoyang also reminded investors that when connecting related ETFs in on-market transactions in the near future, they need to focus on the possible impact of discounts and premiums on related products on investment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2022-03-17/doc-imcwiwss6659045.shtml\">中证报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/468fad6959bf869d187e8f577559a4ab","relate_stocks":{"159729":"互联ETF","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2022-03-17/doc-imcwiwss6659045.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220474040","content_text":"中概股终于涨了，多只中概互联Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF连续两日涨停，中概股的机会又回来了？基金经理认为，互联网企业仍将长期发挥作用并持续创新成长，中概股中的优质公司仍有坚实的基本面基础。中概互联ETF连续大反弹港股市场上，腾讯控股3月16日和17日分别上涨23.15%和6.81%，美团3月16日和17日分别上涨32.08%和14.57%，京东集团3月16日和17日分别上涨35.64%和18.58%。美股市场上，当地时间3月16日，阿里涨36.76%，百度涨39.20%，京东涨39.36%，拼多多更是大涨56.06%。中概股反弹，中概互联ETF也随之上演了大反转。3月17日，广发中证海外中国互联网30ETF、嘉实中证海外中国互联网30ETF再度涨停，易方达中证海外互联ETF涨幅达7.35%。3月16日，上述3只ETF悉数涨停。值得注意的是，多只中概互联ETF都出现了折价，截至3月17日收盘，广发中证海外中国互联网30ETF折价率为9.91%，嘉实中证海外中国互联网30ETF折价率为9.28%。此前，中概互联ETF净值大幅下跌，3月1日-15日，广发中证海外中国互联网30ETF下跌33.01%，嘉实中证海外中国互联网30ETF下跌32.40%，易方达中证海外互联ETF下跌24.45%。申购热情高涨虽然中概互联ETF近来起起伏伏，但投资者历来对中概互联ETF青睐有加。Wind数据显示，截至3月16日，今年以来易方达中证海外互联ETF份额增加85.60亿份，是今年份额增加排名第4的ETF，广发中证海外中国互联网30ETF和嘉实中证海外中国互联网30ETF份额分别增加22.58亿份和2.73亿份。在中概互联ETF迎来大涨后，投资者更是颇具申购热情。不过也有基金公司提示了相关风险。易方达基金在3月16日和17日连发两份溢价风险提示公告。在17日的公告中，易方达基金表示，近期，易方达中证海外互联ETF二级市场交易价格波动较大。3月16日，基金在二级市场的收盘价为0.952元，相对于当日的基金份额参考净值（IOPV）溢价幅度达到25.93%。特此提示投资者关注二级市场交易价格溢价风险，如果盲目投资，可能遭受重大损失。优质中概股有坚实基本面基础经过前期的调整，中概股是否迎来了较好的投资机会？嘉实基金表示，受国际地缘冲突等外部因素影响，此前中概股出现大幅下跌，具有一定偶然性。从投资角度来看，中概股为代表的科技成长股的波动本身相对比较大，而且新兴市场波动大于发达市场，离岸市场的波动也高于在岸市场。整体来看，当下中概股的股价下跌受消息面和情绪交易面的影响，但优质公司仍有坚实的基本面基础，与估值本身关系不大。嘉实基金认为，当市场在调整的时候，总是会出现很多非理性的声音或情绪，尤其是因为偶发因素造成的调整与波动，只是长期向好路上的波折。相信这种状态并不会持续很长时间，对其中优质的公司还是很有信心。一位基金经理指出，2021年，全球对互联网行业的政策密集出台，主要集中在反垄断、数据安全、个人隐私保护等领域。展望2022年，在稳增长和强调数字经济重要作用的大背景下，国内针对互联网行业的政策脉络逐渐明朗，未来的监管更多是系统化、常态化的过程，是行业健康发展的重要保证。反应到股价上，互联网公司的估值大幅下调。业绩方面，受疫情对消费的制约、监管政策下业务结构调整等因素影响，互联网公司在2021年业绩承压。经过10多年的快速发展，互联网行业整体进入成长阶段后期，长期估值中枢预计会有所回落。步入成熟期后，头部互联网公司业绩稳定性有望增强，业绩也更具韧性。广发中证海外中国互联网30ETF基金经理夏浩洋也表示，《外国公司问责法》对于中概股的影响相对有限，当前中概互联板块步入宏观经济和业绩主导期，未来走势可重点关注业绩修复情况。长期来看，互联网作为国计民生的重要基础设施，无论是未来将长期倡导的数字经济，还是面向未来的元宇宙产业趋势，互联网企业仍将长期发挥作用并持续创新成长。夏浩洋也提醒投资者，近期在场内交易中概互联相关ETF时，需重点关注相关产品的折溢价对投资可能会带来的影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159729":1,"QNETCN":1,"TTTN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}