peanutz personal page - To The Moon

peanutz

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01-14

Hi good day everyone .

01-13

Hi all good day everyone.

01-12

Nice everyone. Good day.

01-11

Hello everyone. Have a nice day

01-09

Good day all, lets do mission.

01-08

Good day everyone. Hope everyone is happy.

2022-08-02

Bullish

Alibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

2021-09-16

Why the drop?

Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever

2021-09-16

Great

Electronic Arts shares rose 2.2% in premarket trading

2021-09-15

Not just low. Very low.

U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes

2021-09-14

Anyone tried

Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday

2021-09-12

When is a good time to buy?

Buy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?

2022-08-02

Bullish

S&P 500: Taking Profit On The Long Positions

2021-09-14

Like

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-09-12

Will it boom?

Pinterest Stock: 2 Reasons To Be Excited and 3 Reasons To Worry

2021-09-09

Legit other stocks sank too ..

Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.

2022-04-21

Have a nice day all.

2021-09-22

Is it cheap to buy?

Fed in focus today with taper talk and new dot plot engrossing Wall Street

2021-09-07

Which one struggle? How long it can go?

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?

2023-01-13

Good day all

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Lets win the event.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255905355071784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":262995341918376,"gmtCreate":1705242050019,"gmtModify":1705242053958,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi good day everyone .","listText":"Hi good day everyone .","text":"Hi good day everyone .","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262995341918376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262663374758168,"gmtCreate":1705160847926,"gmtModify":1705160852082,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi all good day everyone.","listText":"Hi all good day everyone.","text":"Hi all good day everyone.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262663374758168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262300221247576,"gmtCreate":1705072326652,"gmtModify":1705072330991,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice everyone. Good day.","listText":"Nice everyone. Good day.","text":"Nice everyone. Good day.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262300221247576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":261944752459912,"gmtCreate":1704986199310,"gmtModify":1704986203820,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello everyone. Have a nice day","listText":"Hello everyone. Have a nice day","text":"Hello everyone. Have a nice day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/261944752459912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":261182071259376,"gmtCreate":1704775518192,"gmtModify":1704775522389,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good day all, lets do mission.","listText":"Good day all, lets do mission.","text":"Good day all, lets do mission.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/261182071259376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":260973363073320,"gmtCreate":1704724564399,"gmtModify":1704724568792,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good day everyone. Hope everyone is happy.","listText":"Good day everyone. Hope everyone is happy.","text":"Good day everyone. Hope everyone is happy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/260973363073320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906014825,"gmtCreate":1659453266770,"gmtModify":1705980515427,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish","listText":"Bullish","text":"Bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906014825","repostId":"1188690484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188690484","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659454673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188690484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-02 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188690484","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Alibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company&#39;s stock is trading at a PE of about x17.</li><li>The stock is down about 70% from ATH and now trades at very attractive risk/reward levels.</li><li>Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company&#39;s fair value with a residual earnings model.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>I am very bullish on Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) stock. I strongly believe that the market has priced in too much negativity and pessimism as compared to reality and investors are well advised to follow one of Buffett&#39;s key maxims:</p><blockquote>Be greedy when others are fearful.</blockquote><p>Alibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company&#39;s stock is trading at a PE of about x17. This indicates a clear undervaluation.</p><p>Of course, I understand that investors are worried about a potential ADR delisting, slowing economy and crackdown on internet/tech companies. However, just like a bull market tops on the most bullish conditions, a bear market bottoms on the most bearish conditions. While investors should study and understand the risks, I personally believe that Alibaba stock will rebound strongly from current price levels of below $100/share.</p><p>Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company&#39;s fair value with a residual earnings model anchored on fundamentals and analyst consensus estimates. My target price is $133.92.</p><p><b>A Best-In-Class Company</b></p><p>Alibaba is one of the biggest e-commerce companies in the world. The company operates three main shopping sites Taobao, Tmall and Alibaba.com, which cumulatively serve some 828 million monthly active buyers (fiscal year ending March 31, 2021).</p><p>Alibaba also has stakes in multiple innovative internet/technology businesses such as Youku (video entertainment), Pony.Ai (Autonomous Driving) and most notably Ant Group (The world&#39;s biggest financial service company). Alipay serves almost the entire population in China. The platform has 1.3 billion users and 80 million merchants. Notably, the total payment volume of Alipay was more than $19 trillion in 2021.</p><p>Moreover, Alibaba is a dominant force in China&#39;s cloud market with about37% market share. China&#39;s cloud market is expected to grow at a 4-year CAGR of more than 25%, reaching $85 billion in 2026. As the market leader in China, Alibaba is poised to benefit from this super-charged cloud-growth. Cloud is also a business vertical where the company should enjoy government tailwind, as the Chinese Communist Party is actively supporting digitalization efforts of the economy and has made cloud development a key-priority in the party&#39;s5-year development plan.</p><p><b>Bullish Financials</b></p><p>In the past financial year, the Alibaba Group generated total revenues of about $134.5 billion and recorded an operating income of about $15 billion. Most notably in the past five years, from March 2017 to March 2022, Alibaba has grown at an unbelievable 5-year CAGR of 42%. For reference, this is almost double the growth rate of Amazon, which grew at a 5-year CAGR of 22% CAGR over the same period. Alibaba closed the fiscal year 2021 with 9.8 billion of net-income available to common shareholders.</p><p>Alibaba&#39;sbalance sheet is very strong: As of March 2022, the company recorded $71.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents and only $27.85 of total financial debt. This makes Alibaba a net-creditor of about $43 billion -- which is 17% of the company&#39;s market capitalization. Moreover, Alibaba&#39;s business operations, despite the strong growth, are cash-accretive. In fiscal 2021, the company generated cash from operations of $22.5 billion. Under these circumstances it should come to no surprise that the company announced a $25 billion share-buyback program, more than 10% of the outstanding shares) in March 2022.</p><p>Alibaba will announce earnings for the quarter from April to end of June on August 4th before the market open. Analyst consensus expects total revenues of $30.21 billion and EPS of $1.56.</p><p><b>The Buying Opportunity</b></p><p>Despite the strong business fundamentals, Alibaba stock suffered a spectacular sell-off. BABA shares are down about 70% from ATH as the company was pressured by multiple headwinds: ADR delisting fears, as slowing economy , Covid-19 lockdowns and an aggressive regulatory crackdown that started with the cancellation of the Ant Group IPO in November 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01e6eab7204bcc90b5af9aa0d87ac85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Alibaba is a quality company, and the stock&#39;s undervaluation is no secret to investors. The key-question is: is the worst behind, and can investors safely invest in Alibaba stock?</p><p>I strongly believe that a safe investment does not exist. In my opinion, every investment opportunity must be judged as a function of its price. And the lower the price, the less risky an investment becomes. Thus, investing is a question of risk/reward. Given Alibaba&#39;s extremely depressed valuation - now the company&#39;s stock is trading at a PE of about x17- I argue an investment is justified.</p><p>Moreover, there are signs that all of Alibaba&#39;s headwinds are easing and the negativity surrounding the stock has peaked. China has on multiple occasions tried to communicate to investors that the internet/technology crackdown is coming to an end and is actively supporting the healthy expansion of digital platform economies.</p><p>In addition, China has vowed to push more fiscal economic support- with a special focus on digitalization. While western economies are hawkish on fiscal and monetary stimulus - ending a decade long easing cycle, China is one of the few economies that appears to start a new stimulus cycle.</p><p>Analysts agree with the bullish thesis. In general, analysts are very bullish on Alibaba stock. Based on ratings of 44 analysts, 33 analysts give a Strong Buy rating, 8 are Buy rated and 3 assign a Hold recommendation. There is no Sell or Strong Sell rating. The average price target is $155.47/share, indicating more than 70% upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa3c940aeeed4780c87b1ca71bdb180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Residual Earnings Valuation</b></p><p>Let us now look at the valuation. What could be a fair per-share value for Alibaba stock? To answer the question, I have constructed a Residual Earnings framework and anchor on the following assumptions:</p><ul><li>To forecast EPS, I anchor on consensus analyst forecast as available on the Bloomberg Terminal &#39;till 2025. In my opinion, any estimate beyond 2025 is too speculative to include in a valuation framework. But for 2-3 years, analyst consensus is usually quite precise.</li><li>To estimate the cost of capital, I use the WACC framework. I model a three-year regression against the Hang Seng to find the stock&#39;s beta. For the risk-free rate, I used the U.S. 10-year treasury yield as of July 22nd, 2022. My calculation indicates a fair WACC of about 9.8%. I adjust upward to 12% in order to reflect the company&#39;s idiosyncratic market risk.</li><li>To derive Baidu&#39;s tax rate, I extrapolate the 3-year average effective tax-rate from 2019, 2020 and 2021.</li><li>For the terminal growth rate, I apply expected nominal GDP growth plus one percentage point to reflect a favorable growth outlook for Alibaba&#39;s high-potential initiatives</li><li>I do not model any share buyback further supporting a conservative valuation.</li></ul><p>Based on the above assumptions, my calculation returns a base-case target price for Alibaba of $133.92/share, implying material upside of more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7cb860aca7fa48ef2afe7e265d3effa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author&#39;s Calculation</p><p>I understand that investors might have different assumptions with regards to Alibaba&#39;s required return and terminal business growth. Thus, I also enclose a sensitivity table to test varying assumptions. For reference, red-cells imply an overvaluation as compared to the current market price, and green-cells imply an undervaluation. Notably, all tested combinations imply an undervaluation!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ba3323a1f09e75477921298d84cbf8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author&#39;s Calculation</p><p><b>Investment Risks</b></p><p>Investors should be aware of the following downside risks that might cause Alibaba stock to materially deviate from my base-case target price of $133.92/share:</p><p>First, the economy is currently pressured by multiple headwinds including inflation, real-estate crisis and COVID-19 lockdowns. If the economy would slow more than what is expected and priced in, investors should adjust expectations for Alibaba&#39;s short/mid-term business monetization accordingly.</p><p>Secondly, China&#39;s internet/tech companies are strongly exposed to regulatory risk. While the worst seems to be behind us, the elevated risk exposure persists -- and will arguably never completely fade.</p><p>Third, much of BABA&#39;s share price volatility is currently driven by investor sentiment towards Chinese ADRs and risk assets. Thus, BABA stock price might show strong price volatility even though the company&#39;s business fundamentals remain unchanged.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Alibaba stock is down 70% from ATH, but the company remains a global powerhouse with enormous long-term potential. Trading at a PE of below x17, despite growing like a start-up, I argue Alibaba&#39;s sell-off could offer long-term focused investors, that can stomach short term share-price volatility, a generational buying opportunity.</p><p>Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, despite cautious and conservative valuation assumptions. Strong Buy.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-02 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528176-alibaba-be-greedy-when-others-fearful><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17.The stock is down about 70% from ATH and now trades at very attractive risk/reward ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528176-alibaba-be-greedy-when-others-fearful\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528176-alibaba-be-greedy-when-others-fearful","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188690484","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17.The stock is down about 70% from ATH and now trades at very attractive risk/reward levels.Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company's fair value with a residual earnings model.ThesisI am very bullish on Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) stock. I strongly believe that the market has priced in too much negativity and pessimism as compared to reality and investors are well advised to follow one of Buffett's key maxims:Be greedy when others are fearful.Alibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17. This indicates a clear undervaluation.Of course, I understand that investors are worried about a potential ADR delisting, slowing economy and crackdown on internet/tech companies. However, just like a bull market tops on the most bullish conditions, a bear market bottoms on the most bearish conditions. While investors should study and understand the risks, I personally believe that Alibaba stock will rebound strongly from current price levels of below $100/share.Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company's fair value with a residual earnings model anchored on fundamentals and analyst consensus estimates. My target price is $133.92.A Best-In-Class CompanyAlibaba is one of the biggest e-commerce companies in the world. The company operates three main shopping sites Taobao, Tmall and Alibaba.com, which cumulatively serve some 828 million monthly active buyers (fiscal year ending March 31, 2021).Alibaba also has stakes in multiple innovative internet/technology businesses such as Youku (video entertainment), Pony.Ai (Autonomous Driving) and most notably Ant Group (The world's biggest financial service company). Alipay serves almost the entire population in China. The platform has 1.3 billion users and 80 million merchants. Notably, the total payment volume of Alipay was more than $19 trillion in 2021.Moreover, Alibaba is a dominant force in China's cloud market with about37% market share. China's cloud market is expected to grow at a 4-year CAGR of more than 25%, reaching $85 billion in 2026. As the market leader in China, Alibaba is poised to benefit from this super-charged cloud-growth. Cloud is also a business vertical where the company should enjoy government tailwind, as the Chinese Communist Party is actively supporting digitalization efforts of the economy and has made cloud development a key-priority in the party's5-year development plan.Bullish FinancialsIn the past financial year, the Alibaba Group generated total revenues of about $134.5 billion and recorded an operating income of about $15 billion. Most notably in the past five years, from March 2017 to March 2022, Alibaba has grown at an unbelievable 5-year CAGR of 42%. For reference, this is almost double the growth rate of Amazon, which grew at a 5-year CAGR of 22% CAGR over the same period. Alibaba closed the fiscal year 2021 with 9.8 billion of net-income available to common shareholders.Alibaba'sbalance sheet is very strong: As of March 2022, the company recorded $71.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents and only $27.85 of total financial debt. This makes Alibaba a net-creditor of about $43 billion -- which is 17% of the company's market capitalization. Moreover, Alibaba's business operations, despite the strong growth, are cash-accretive. In fiscal 2021, the company generated cash from operations of $22.5 billion. Under these circumstances it should come to no surprise that the company announced a $25 billion share-buyback program, more than 10% of the outstanding shares) in March 2022.Alibaba will announce earnings for the quarter from April to end of June on August 4th before the market open. Analyst consensus expects total revenues of $30.21 billion and EPS of $1.56.The Buying OpportunityDespite the strong business fundamentals, Alibaba stock suffered a spectacular sell-off. BABA shares are down about 70% from ATH as the company was pressured by multiple headwinds: ADR delisting fears, as slowing economy , Covid-19 lockdowns and an aggressive regulatory crackdown that started with the cancellation of the Ant Group IPO in November 2020.Seeking AlphaAlibaba is a quality company, and the stock's undervaluation is no secret to investors. The key-question is: is the worst behind, and can investors safely invest in Alibaba stock?I strongly believe that a safe investment does not exist. In my opinion, every investment opportunity must be judged as a function of its price. And the lower the price, the less risky an investment becomes. Thus, investing is a question of risk/reward. Given Alibaba's extremely depressed valuation - now the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17- I argue an investment is justified.Moreover, there are signs that all of Alibaba's headwinds are easing and the negativity surrounding the stock has peaked. China has on multiple occasions tried to communicate to investors that the internet/technology crackdown is coming to an end and is actively supporting the healthy expansion of digital platform economies.In addition, China has vowed to push more fiscal economic support- with a special focus on digitalization. While western economies are hawkish on fiscal and monetary stimulus - ending a decade long easing cycle, China is one of the few economies that appears to start a new stimulus cycle.Analysts agree with the bullish thesis. In general, analysts are very bullish on Alibaba stock. Based on ratings of 44 analysts, 33 analysts give a Strong Buy rating, 8 are Buy rated and 3 assign a Hold recommendation. There is no Sell or Strong Sell rating. The average price target is $155.47/share, indicating more than 70% upside.Seeking AlphaResidual Earnings ValuationLet us now look at the valuation. What could be a fair per-share value for Alibaba stock? To answer the question, I have constructed a Residual Earnings framework and anchor on the following assumptions:To forecast EPS, I anchor on consensus analyst forecast as available on the Bloomberg Terminal 'till 2025. In my opinion, any estimate beyond 2025 is too speculative to include in a valuation framework. But for 2-3 years, analyst consensus is usually quite precise.To estimate the cost of capital, I use the WACC framework. I model a three-year regression against the Hang Seng to find the stock's beta. For the risk-free rate, I used the U.S. 10-year treasury yield as of July 22nd, 2022. My calculation indicates a fair WACC of about 9.8%. I adjust upward to 12% in order to reflect the company's idiosyncratic market risk.To derive Baidu's tax rate, I extrapolate the 3-year average effective tax-rate from 2019, 2020 and 2021.For the terminal growth rate, I apply expected nominal GDP growth plus one percentage point to reflect a favorable growth outlook for Alibaba's high-potential initiativesI do not model any share buyback further supporting a conservative valuation.Based on the above assumptions, my calculation returns a base-case target price for Alibaba of $133.92/share, implying material upside of more than 50%.Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's CalculationI understand that investors might have different assumptions with regards to Alibaba's required return and terminal business growth. Thus, I also enclose a sensitivity table to test varying assumptions. For reference, red-cells imply an overvaluation as compared to the current market price, and green-cells imply an undervaluation. Notably, all tested combinations imply an undervaluation!Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's CalculationInvestment RisksInvestors should be aware of the following downside risks that might cause Alibaba stock to materially deviate from my base-case target price of $133.92/share:First, the economy is currently pressured by multiple headwinds including inflation, real-estate crisis and COVID-19 lockdowns. If the economy would slow more than what is expected and priced in, investors should adjust expectations for Alibaba's short/mid-term business monetization accordingly.Secondly, China's internet/tech companies are strongly exposed to regulatory risk. While the worst seems to be behind us, the elevated risk exposure persists -- and will arguably never completely fade.Third, much of BABA's share price volatility is currently driven by investor sentiment towards Chinese ADRs and risk assets. Thus, BABA stock price might show strong price volatility even though the company's business fundamentals remain unchanged.ConclusionAlibaba stock is down 70% from ATH, but the company remains a global powerhouse with enormous long-term potential. Trading at a PE of below x17, despite growing like a start-up, I argue Alibaba's sell-off could offer long-term focused investors, that can stomach short term share-price volatility, a generational buying opportunity.Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, despite cautious and conservative valuation assumptions. Strong Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885295612,"gmtCreate":1631795310036,"gmtModify":1676530637267,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why the drop?","listText":"Why the drop?","text":"Why the drop?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/885295612","repostId":"1132437771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132437771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631792549,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132437771?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-16 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132437771","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Nvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.</li>\n <li>Investors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.</li>\n <li>Due to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d3f68e7d7037092fadd0ee8f1ab7d6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>wellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>From a relatively small gaming company a couple of years ago, Nvidia (NVDA) has turned into one of the most important technological enterprises globally. From data centers &amp; cloud computing, driverless cars and all kinds of artificial intelligence computing workloads, to gaming, visualization &amp; cryptocurrency mining, Nvidia products are now the lifeblood of the new digital economy.</p>\n<p>Not only is Nvidia's intellectual property uniquely positioned within the new digital age, but the company is also an undisputed leader in the graphics processing unit(GPU)space with a very wide moat. This led to the success story called Nvidia.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc9ac68b953baa8a700911e6d0bae74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Going forward, however, share price returns are likely to disappoint even in the face of improving business fundamentals. It appears that certain market-wide risks are now in the driver's seat of Nvidia share price and could catch many of Nvidia shareholders off-guard. But before we dig into that, we need to properly account for the leading position business potential of the company.</p>\n<p><b>All about GPUs demand</b></p>\n<p>Even though the Gaming segment still takes a sizeable proportion of Nvidia's business, just over the course of four years Data Center has become equally important in size.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c28b9183a9848e6736b81b6d2a9c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p>\n<p>As if the already ongoing trend towards more cloud-based workloads was not enough, the current pandemic significantly accelerated the overall demand.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f8090d5c3afcbca0034dc19ebf87cd\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In addition to data centers, the automotive industry is also starving for Nvidia's chips which made the company deeply embedded in the automotive ecosystem.</p>\n<blockquote>\n NVIDIA is working with several hundred partners in the automotive ecosystem including automakers, truck makers, tier one suppliers, sensor manufacturers, automotive research institutions, HD mapping companies, and startups to develop and deploy AI systems for self-driving vehicles.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Source: Nvidia Annual Report 2021\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e19c38b0c31479f3ca070abe62f088d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p>\n<p>Last but not least, the tug-of-war between gamers and cryptocurrency miners has resulted in both higher volume sales as well as higher pricing of Nvidia's GPUs. The uptick in energy consumption for cryptocurrency mining, coupled with the overall&nbsp;preference&nbsp;for Nvidia GPUs was yet another tailwind for the company's Gaming division.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cde81f76201b5c7f5832202aaa17e08\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: bbc.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Implications for the Income Statement</b></p>\n<p>The perfect storm for GPUs demand and Nvidia's leading position in the segment resulted in the 53% topline growth in fiscal year 2021 and 31% so far for the FY 2022.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ffb1f7cf418f4f8b264dd72a22fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Going forward, NVDA is likely to sustain this high topline growth rate, which is expected to somehow cool-off following fiscal year 2022.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d980f7a5a4c4f88b24057841ca2db18b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"135\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>The forward growth rate of NVDA is comparable only to that of its other GPU rival - AMD (AMD), which is expected to grow at a similar rate over the next two fiscal years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52527c42a41f66d31bcfaa80b46b1fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* compounded annual growth rate from the most recently completed fiscal year's revenue to analysts' consensus revenue estimates for two fiscal years forward Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>However, while AMD's share price benefited massively from the strong GPU demand and its recent comeback to the CPU stage, Nvidia retained an industry-leading profitability.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/925c87e1ab20aef8c57bacc0190ac528\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>This allowed NVDA to spend significantly more than its rival AMD on Research &amp; Development expenses.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176479e69a17e33e4ff51eecb22a9d79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Even adjusted for size, Nvidia has also been consistently outspending AMD on R&amp;D investments.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9947f932bee0cdc8168c3ba93b08cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>While organic growth opportunities for Nvidia might seem endless at this point in time, the semiconductors industry remains highly cyclical and sooner or later even the GPU demand will cool off.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb65f1081a7a5a1b44babd5de7c1a63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from fred.stlouisfed.org and semi.org</span></p>\n<p>That is why, even in the midst of the GPU shortages, Nvidia management is capitalizing on its extremely high valuation by tapping into the strategic acquisition of ARM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/811811f1ac57020a31ee1c4834476b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia to acquire ARM presentation</span></p>\n<blockquote>\n Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of \n <i>$21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stock</i>and $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Source:nvidianews.nvidia.com</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The ARM deal, which is still under&nbsp;review&nbsp;by the regulators, was also one of the largest Tech deals for 2020.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb6ec9cdf0fffb8d9ce13f7818ea7500\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: cbinsights.com</span></p>\n<p>In addition to high M&amp;A activity being a sign of a peak in market valuations, analysts' sentiment on Nvidia is also exceptionally optimistic which suggests that the near-term growth is already priced in.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a011c8086483c73b9bb116684f5402d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p><b>The value conundrum</b></p>\n<p>As rosy as everything seems for NVDA right now, there should a price that is simply too high even when accounting for Nvidia's strong positioning. So far as growth accelerated so did the company's P/E ratio, which suggests an even more optimistic future scenario. However, neither Nvidia's bottom line nor its earnings multiple can go on an upward trajectory forever.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee7cb10de1973f49703e0262aeca3b12\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>After everything we said so far, we have some solid reasons to believe that the earnings per share (EPS) growth will be sustained for the time being, even in the face of the cyclical nature of the industry. But at such high valuations, the price premium attached to EPS growth is far more important for future returns. In other words, Nvidia's bottom line could fulfil even the rosiest forecasts but the share price could still disappoint, if the premium paid for high growth decreases.</p>\n<p>As we saw earlier, right now both NVDA and AMD are the two highest growth names in the semiconductors peer group and as such are rewarded by a proportionally higher earnings multiple.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/680a02fe38521c886f802828f1a86480\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Due to Nvidia's leading positioning and higher profitability, the company lies above the trend line on the graph above.</p>\n<p>Interestingly enough, if we exclude the high-flying GPU companies, the R-Squared between the rest of the peer group is just 0.12 which means that there isn't a strong relationship between future growth and valuations for everything other than GPUs in the semiconductors space.</p>\n<p>This is due to the fact that NVDA and AMD chips are expected to have a more sustained growth beyond next year as GPUs remain crucial for data centers, autos, digital currencies and a number of other workloads related to artificial intelligence (AI).</p>\n<p>This also means that NVDA and AMD are among the highest duration stocks in the sample and as such the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Meaning that all else being equal, NVDA and AMD shares will be hit much harder than those of their peers in an event of rising interest rates.</p>\n<p>That is why, NVDA Price-to-Sales ratio trails the performance of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is influenced by long-term bond yields.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a706f8ec1fe650806ddbf2b3730c659\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In the graph above, the TLT does a very good job at explaining movements in Nvidia's P/S ratio, with the exception of the last quarter of calendar year 2018, when crypto-related demand had a profound impact on the company's topline results.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First, \n <i>post crypto inventory of GPUs</i>in the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventory to normalize in Q1 in line with one to two quarter timeline we had outlined on our previous earnings call.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Second, \n <i>deteriorating macro economic conditions,</i>impacted consumer demand for our GPUs; and third, sales of certain high end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070 were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Source: Nvidia Q4 of FY 2019 earnings transcript\n</blockquote>\n<p>This also highlights the sensitivity of Nvidia share price to macroeconomic conditions in cryptocurrency-related demand as the share price halved from around $70 in September 2018 (4-to-1&nbsp;split&nbsp;adjusted) to around $35 in January of the following year.</p>\n<p><b>The elephant in the room</b></p>\n<p>The unprecedented amount of liquidity within the equity markets has been a blessing for high growth momentum stocks, which was one of the best performing areas of the market over the last decade. That is why it is worth noticing that lower interest rates have profound implications for returns of momentum stocks (see the graph below).</p>\n<p>In the graph below I measure momentum by taking a long position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2664fc3740387f87d6aa32f635ed3dd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance and fred.stlouisfed.org</span></p>\n<p>After everything we said so far, it should come as no surprise that momentum stocks were one of the best performing areas of the market during 2020, when nominal yields on the 10-year government bonds fell below 1%. During this period, Nvidia share price more than doubled from around $60 (post-split) in January to $130 in December of the same year. And although the company does not make it into the largest holdings of MTUM, its share price was heavily influenced by the performance of the momentum factor.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb70e63d6055785d63a4d52fd5f41b73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: ishares.com</span></p>\n<p>Nvidia's relationship with momentum factor (MTUM less VLUE) has become an even stronger over the recent months as its share price reached new all-time highs, with the rolling 1-year R-Squared of daily returns hovering above 0.35.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30576794833fa9f35403aac0c68767b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>Since this might look as a coincidence, the relationship between NVDA and the momentum factor, as&nbsp;constructed&nbsp;by Fama &amp; French, also followed a similar pattern to the one used above.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae61fb668ca8d5dcca59f74af5a02af7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* up until 30th of June 2021 due to lack of more recent data Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance &amp; Fama &amp; French</span></p>\n<p>Nvidia's exposure to the momentum factor is also much stronger than those of other high-flying growth names, such as AMD, Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5dac0e96644db66820dce414e647ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>Nvidia was one of the growth stocks that benefited the most from the recent drop in interest rates and as such is at the highest risk of a sharp reversal, should bond yields normalize. Adding the risk of lower demand from cryptocurrency mining, and the prospects of Nvidia share price continuing to outperform look slim. That is why, investors should not be surprised, if going forward Nvidia share price disappoints even as management continues to deliver on its strategy.</p>\n<p>Of course, there is always the possibility that the Federal Reserve will be unable to taper and bring bond yields to a more normalized level, which in itself will be enough to propel Nvidia's share price to new all-time highs. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain event that is also unrelated to Nvidia's business performance. Moreover, the outcome of this event will likely have a disproportionately higher influence on Nvidia's future share price performance than the company's products will.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-16 19:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455441-nvidia-fundamentals-matter-less-than-ever><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.\nInvestors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455441-nvidia-fundamentals-matter-less-than-ever\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455441-nvidia-fundamentals-matter-less-than-ever","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132437771","content_text":"Summary\n\nNvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.\nInvestors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.\nDue to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.\n\nwellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nFrom a relatively small gaming company a couple of years ago, Nvidia (NVDA) has turned into one of the most important technological enterprises globally. From data centers & cloud computing, driverless cars and all kinds of artificial intelligence computing workloads, to gaming, visualization & cryptocurrency mining, Nvidia products are now the lifeblood of the new digital economy.\nNot only is Nvidia's intellectual property uniquely positioned within the new digital age, but the company is also an undisputed leader in the graphics processing unit(GPU)space with a very wide moat. This led to the success story called Nvidia.\nData by YCharts\nGoing forward, however, share price returns are likely to disappoint even in the face of improving business fundamentals. It appears that certain market-wide risks are now in the driver's seat of Nvidia share price and could catch many of Nvidia shareholders off-guard. But before we dig into that, we need to properly account for the leading position business potential of the company.\nAll about GPUs demand\nEven though the Gaming segment still takes a sizeable proportion of Nvidia's business, just over the course of four years Data Center has become equally important in size.\nSource: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021\nAs if the already ongoing trend towards more cloud-based workloads was not enough, the current pandemic significantly accelerated the overall demand.\n\nIn addition to data centers, the automotive industry is also starving for Nvidia's chips which made the company deeply embedded in the automotive ecosystem.\n\n NVIDIA is working with several hundred partners in the automotive ecosystem including automakers, truck makers, tier one suppliers, sensor manufacturers, automotive research institutions, HD mapping companies, and startups to develop and deploy AI systems for self-driving vehicles.\n\n\n Source: Nvidia Annual Report 2021\n\nSource: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021\nLast but not least, the tug-of-war between gamers and cryptocurrency miners has resulted in both higher volume sales as well as higher pricing of Nvidia's GPUs. The uptick in energy consumption for cryptocurrency mining, coupled with the overall preference for Nvidia GPUs was yet another tailwind for the company's Gaming division.\nSource: bbc.com\nImplications for the Income Statement\nThe perfect storm for GPUs demand and Nvidia's leading position in the segment resulted in the 53% topline growth in fiscal year 2021 and 31% so far for the FY 2022.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nGoing forward, NVDA is likely to sustain this high topline growth rate, which is expected to somehow cool-off following fiscal year 2022.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThe forward growth rate of NVDA is comparable only to that of its other GPU rival - AMD (AMD), which is expected to grow at a similar rate over the next two fiscal years.\n* compounded annual growth rate from the most recently completed fiscal year's revenue to analysts' consensus revenue estimates for two fiscal years forward Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nHowever, while AMD's share price benefited massively from the strong GPU demand and its recent comeback to the CPU stage, Nvidia retained an industry-leading profitability.\nData by YCharts\nThis allowed NVDA to spend significantly more than its rival AMD on Research & Development expenses.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nEven adjusted for size, Nvidia has also been consistently outspending AMD on R&D investments.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nWhile organic growth opportunities for Nvidia might seem endless at this point in time, the semiconductors industry remains highly cyclical and sooner or later even the GPU demand will cool off.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from fred.stlouisfed.org and semi.org\nThat is why, even in the midst of the GPU shortages, Nvidia management is capitalizing on its extremely high valuation by tapping into the strategic acquisition of ARM.\nSource: Nvidia to acquire ARM presentation\n\n Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of \n $21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stockand $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing.\n\n\nSource:nvidianews.nvidia.com\n\nThe ARM deal, which is still under review by the regulators, was also one of the largest Tech deals for 2020.\nSource: cbinsights.com\nIn addition to high M&A activity being a sign of a peak in market valuations, analysts' sentiment on Nvidia is also exceptionally optimistic which suggests that the near-term growth is already priced in.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThe value conundrum\nAs rosy as everything seems for NVDA right now, there should a price that is simply too high even when accounting for Nvidia's strong positioning. So far as growth accelerated so did the company's P/E ratio, which suggests an even more optimistic future scenario. However, neither Nvidia's bottom line nor its earnings multiple can go on an upward trajectory forever.\nData by YCharts\nAfter everything we said so far, we have some solid reasons to believe that the earnings per share (EPS) growth will be sustained for the time being, even in the face of the cyclical nature of the industry. But at such high valuations, the price premium attached to EPS growth is far more important for future returns. In other words, Nvidia's bottom line could fulfil even the rosiest forecasts but the share price could still disappoint, if the premium paid for high growth decreases.\nAs we saw earlier, right now both NVDA and AMD are the two highest growth names in the semiconductors peer group and as such are rewarded by a proportionally higher earnings multiple.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nDue to Nvidia's leading positioning and higher profitability, the company lies above the trend line on the graph above.\nInterestingly enough, if we exclude the high-flying GPU companies, the R-Squared between the rest of the peer group is just 0.12 which means that there isn't a strong relationship between future growth and valuations for everything other than GPUs in the semiconductors space.\nThis is due to the fact that NVDA and AMD chips are expected to have a more sustained growth beyond next year as GPUs remain crucial for data centers, autos, digital currencies and a number of other workloads related to artificial intelligence (AI).\nThis also means that NVDA and AMD are among the highest duration stocks in the sample and as such the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Meaning that all else being equal, NVDA and AMD shares will be hit much harder than those of their peers in an event of rising interest rates.\nThat is why, NVDA Price-to-Sales ratio trails the performance of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is influenced by long-term bond yields.\nData by YCharts\nIn the graph above, the TLT does a very good job at explaining movements in Nvidia's P/S ratio, with the exception of the last quarter of calendar year 2018, when crypto-related demand had a profound impact on the company's topline results.\n\n Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First, \n post crypto inventory of GPUsin the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventory to normalize in Q1 in line with one to two quarter timeline we had outlined on our previous earnings call.\n\n\n Second, \n deteriorating macro economic conditions,impacted consumer demand for our GPUs; and third, sales of certain high end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070 were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture.\n\n\n Source: Nvidia Q4 of FY 2019 earnings transcript\n\nThis also highlights the sensitivity of Nvidia share price to macroeconomic conditions in cryptocurrency-related demand as the share price halved from around $70 in September 2018 (4-to-1 split adjusted) to around $35 in January of the following year.\nThe elephant in the room\nThe unprecedented amount of liquidity within the equity markets has been a blessing for high growth momentum stocks, which was one of the best performing areas of the market over the last decade. That is why it is worth noticing that lower interest rates have profound implications for returns of momentum stocks (see the graph below).\nIn the graph below I measure momentum by taking a long position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance and fred.stlouisfed.org\nAfter everything we said so far, it should come as no surprise that momentum stocks were one of the best performing areas of the market during 2020, when nominal yields on the 10-year government bonds fell below 1%. During this period, Nvidia share price more than doubled from around $60 (post-split) in January to $130 in December of the same year. And although the company does not make it into the largest holdings of MTUM, its share price was heavily influenced by the performance of the momentum factor.\nSource: ishares.com\nNvidia's relationship with momentum factor (MTUM less VLUE) has become an even stronger over the recent months as its share price reached new all-time highs, with the rolling 1-year R-Squared of daily returns hovering above 0.35.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance\nSince this might look as a coincidence, the relationship between NVDA and the momentum factor, as constructed by Fama & French, also followed a similar pattern to the one used above.\n* up until 30th of June 2021 due to lack of more recent data Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance & Fama & French\nNvidia's exposure to the momentum factor is also much stronger than those of other high-flying growth names, such as AMD, Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO).\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance\nNvidia was one of the growth stocks that benefited the most from the recent drop in interest rates and as such is at the highest risk of a sharp reversal, should bond yields normalize. Adding the risk of lower demand from cryptocurrency mining, and the prospects of Nvidia share price continuing to outperform look slim. That is why, investors should not be surprised, if going forward Nvidia share price disappoints even as management continues to deliver on its strategy.\nOf course, there is always the possibility that the Federal Reserve will be unable to taper and bring bond yields to a more normalized level, which in itself will be enough to propel Nvidia's share price to new all-time highs. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain event that is also unrelated to Nvidia's business performance. Moreover, the outcome of this event will likely have a disproportionately higher influence on Nvidia's future share price performance than the company's products will.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3586596744781365","authorId":"3586596744781365","name":"AliPharma","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ae50feeb2edce44d991e8e753fb37e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586596744781365","authorIdStr":"3586596744781365"},"content":"for some reason","text":"for some reason","html":"for some reason"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885292126,"gmtCreate":1631795164165,"gmtModify":1676530637232,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/885292126","repostId":"1193928782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193928782","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631793556,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193928782?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-16 19:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electronic Arts shares rose 2.2% in premarket trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193928782","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Electronic Arts shares rose 2.2% in premarket trading on reaffirmed guidance despite Battlefield 204","content":"<p>Electronic Arts shares rose 2.2% in premarket trading&nbsp;on reaffirmed guidance despite Battlefield 2042 delay, be concerned but not worried says analyst.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c65a59dc859af615f75c86d2a4739b8\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"669\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Shares of Electronic Arts&nbsp;closed down 5.7% Wednesday on rumors Battlefield 2042 will be delayed. However, shares are trading around 2.2% higher in premarket trading confirming the news but still keeping the launch this year. The company is also reiterating its net bookings guidance despite the delay.</p>\n<p>Earlier today, multiple sources started talking about a Battlefield 2042 delay being announced soon, which had October 22 set as its official launch date.</p>\n<p>After the close, EA confirmed that the Battlefield 2042 launch will be delayed but by less than a month. The new launch date is November 19, 2021.</p>\n<p>EA is reiterating its net bookings guidance for fiscal year 2022, despite this change in the launch date for Battlefield 2042.</p>\n<p>DICE Studio GM Oskar Gabrielson shared the following message with the Battlefield fan community:</p>\n<p><i>We’ve made the decision to shift the launch of Battlefield 2042. The game will now be released worldwide on November 19th, 2021.</i></p>\n<p><i>Building the next generation of Battlefield during a global pandemic has created unforeseen challenges for our development teams. Given the scale and scope of the game, we had hoped our teams would be back in our studios together as we move towards launch. With the ongoing conditions not allowing that to happen safely, and with all the hard work the teams are doing from home, we feel it is important to take the extra time to deliver on the vision of Battlefield 2042 for our players.</i></p>\n<p><i>Your enthusiasm for the game has been very inspiring. We believe in the game we’re making, and we thank you for your patience as we put some finishing touches into the experience.</i></p>\n<p><i>Updates on the Open Beta will be coming later this month.</i></p>\n<p><i>Oskar Gabrielson &amp; the Battlefield 2042 Development TeamStudio GM, DICE</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Electronic Arts shares rose 2.2% in premarket trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectronic Arts shares rose 2.2% in premarket trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-16 19:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Electronic Arts shares rose 2.2% in premarket trading&nbsp;on reaffirmed guidance despite Battlefield 2042 delay, be concerned but not worried says analyst.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c65a59dc859af615f75c86d2a4739b8\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"669\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Shares of Electronic Arts&nbsp;closed down 5.7% Wednesday on rumors Battlefield 2042 will be delayed. However, shares are trading around 2.2% higher in premarket trading confirming the news but still keeping the launch this year. The company is also reiterating its net bookings guidance despite the delay.</p>\n<p>Earlier today, multiple sources started talking about a Battlefield 2042 delay being announced soon, which had October 22 set as its official launch date.</p>\n<p>After the close, EA confirmed that the Battlefield 2042 launch will be delayed but by less than a month. The new launch date is November 19, 2021.</p>\n<p>EA is reiterating its net bookings guidance for fiscal year 2022, despite this change in the launch date for Battlefield 2042.</p>\n<p>DICE Studio GM Oskar Gabrielson shared the following message with the Battlefield fan community:</p>\n<p><i>We’ve made the decision to shift the launch of Battlefield 2042. The game will now be released worldwide on November 19th, 2021.</i></p>\n<p><i>Building the next generation of Battlefield during a global pandemic has created unforeseen challenges for our development teams. Given the scale and scope of the game, we had hoped our teams would be back in our studios together as we move towards launch. With the ongoing conditions not allowing that to happen safely, and with all the hard work the teams are doing from home, we feel it is important to take the extra time to deliver on the vision of Battlefield 2042 for our players.</i></p>\n<p><i>Your enthusiasm for the game has been very inspiring. We believe in the game we’re making, and we thank you for your patience as we put some finishing touches into the experience.</i></p>\n<p><i>Updates on the Open Beta will be coming later this month.</i></p>\n<p><i>Oskar Gabrielson &amp; the Battlefield 2042 Development TeamStudio GM, DICE</i></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EA":"艺电"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193928782","content_text":"Electronic Arts shares rose 2.2% in premarket trading on reaffirmed guidance despite Battlefield 2042 delay, be concerned but not worried says analyst.\n\nShares of Electronic Arts closed down 5.7% Wednesday on rumors Battlefield 2042 will be delayed. However, shares are trading around 2.2% higher in premarket trading confirming the news but still keeping the launch this year. The company is also reiterating its net bookings guidance despite the delay.\nEarlier today, multiple sources started talking about a Battlefield 2042 delay being announced soon, which had October 22 set as its official launch date.\nAfter the close, EA confirmed that the Battlefield 2042 launch will be delayed but by less than a month. The new launch date is November 19, 2021.\nEA is reiterating its net bookings guidance for fiscal year 2022, despite this change in the launch date for Battlefield 2042.\nDICE Studio GM Oskar Gabrielson shared the following message with the Battlefield fan community:\nWe’ve made the decision to shift the launch of Battlefield 2042. The game will now be released worldwide on November 19th, 2021.\nBuilding the next generation of Battlefield during a global pandemic has created unforeseen challenges for our development teams. Given the scale and scope of the game, we had hoped our teams would be back in our studios together as we move towards launch. With the ongoing conditions not allowing that to happen safely, and with all the hard work the teams are doing from home, we feel it is important to take the extra time to deliver on the vision of Battlefield 2042 for our players.\nYour enthusiasm for the game has been very inspiring. We believe in the game we’re making, and we thank you for your patience as we put some finishing touches into the experience.\nUpdates on the Open Beta will be coming later this month.\nOskar Gabrielson & the Battlefield 2042 Development TeamStudio GM, DICE","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882257351,"gmtCreate":1631699756773,"gmtModify":1676530612269,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not just low. Very low.","listText":"Not just low. Very low.","text":"Not just low. Very low.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/882257351","repostId":"1148341685","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148341685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631660884,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148341685?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-15 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148341685","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.</p>\n<p>Optimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.</p>\n<p>So far this month the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.</p>\n<p>“There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”</p>\n<p>The advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.</p>\n<p>“We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”</p>\n<p>The CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]</p>\n<p>The long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&amp;P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.</p>\n<p>All 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.</p>\n<p>Apple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq.</p>\n<p>Intuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.</p>\n<p>CureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.</p>\n<p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-15 07:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148341685","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.\nOptimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.\nSo far this month the S&P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.\n“There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”\nThe advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.\n“We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”\nThe CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.\nU.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]\nThe long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.\nAll 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.\nApple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.\nIntuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.\nCureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573623994106312","authorId":"3573623994106312","name":"Wins888","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573623994106312","authorIdStr":"3573623994106312"},"content":"can be lower","text":"can be lower","html":"can be lower"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886718457,"gmtCreate":1631625676079,"gmtModify":1676530592865,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyone tried","listText":"Anyone tried","text":"Anyone tried","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886718457","repostId":"1165374410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165374410","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631622928,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165374410?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-14 20:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165374410","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock futures rallied on Tuesday after inflation data.\nU.S. S&P 500 E-minis were up 16.25 point","content":"<p>U.S.&nbsp;stock futures rallied&nbsp;on Tuesday after&nbsp;inflation data.</p>\n<p>U.S. S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 16.25 points, or 0.36%, at 08:35 am ET. Dow E-minis were up 123 points, or 0.35%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 54.25 points, or 0.35%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ca4324d36dad7984770e67ef4b59f6\" tg-width=\"441\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;prices for an array of consumer goods rose less than expected in August in a sign that inflation may be starting to cool, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.</p>\n<p>The consumer price index, which measures a basket of common products as well as various energy goods, increased 5.3% from a year ago and 0.3% from July.</p>\n<p>Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 5.4% annual rise and 0.4% on the month.</p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p>\n<p><b>Oracle(ORCL)</b> – Oracle reported quarterly earnings of $1.03 per share, 6 cents a share above consensus estimates. The business software giant’s revenue fell short of forecasts, however, amid increasing cloud computing competition. Oracle fell 3% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>Lucid Group(LCID)</b> –&nbsp;Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group fell 6% in premarket trading. An equity research analyst at Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the company at underweight.</p>\n<p><b>Angi(ANGI)</b> – Angi rose 3.3% in premarket trading after the digital marketplace for home services reported its August metrics, which included a 21% jump in revenue from a year earlier.</p>\n<p><b>Herbalife Nutrition(HLF)</b> – Herbalife shares tumbled 9.2% in the premarket after the maker of nutrition products cut its outlook. Herbalife cited lower than expected levels of activity by its independent distributors, likely due to pandemic-related uncertainty.</p>\n<p><b>Apple(AAPL)</b> – Apple issued a patch to its iOS system to fix a vulnerability related to the iPhone’s iMessage function. An Israeli firm had been exploiting the vulnerability since February to infect iPhones, according to research group Citizen Lab.</p>\n<p><b>Intuit(INTU) </b>– Intuit announced a deal to buy digital marketing firm Mailchimp for about $12 billion in cash and stock. That follows the TurboTax maker’s acquisition of Credit Karma last year for more than $7 billion. It had been reported earlier this month that Intuit and Mailchimp were in acquisition talks.</p>\n<p><b>Coinbase(COIN) </b>– The cryptocurrency exchange operator’s shares rose 1.3% in premarket trading after Piper Sandler reiterated an “overweight” rating on the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Cameco(CCJ) </b>– The Canada-based uranium producer continued its recent rally, up 1.6% in the premarket after rising in 10 of the past 11 sessions. It’s among uranium-related stocks that have caught the attention of investors on social media.</p>\n<p><b>Fox Corp. (FOXA)</b> – Fox finalized a deal to buy celebrity news platform TMZ from&nbsp;AT&amp;T’s(T) WarnerMedia unit. Terms were not disclosed, but The Wall Street Journal reported that TMZ was valued at less than $50 million after earlier indications that the two sides were talking about a price between $100 million and $125 million. Fox rose 1.1% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>Southwest Airlines(LUV) </b>– Southwest President Tom Nealon is retiring from the carrier effective immediately. His departure comes three months after CEO Gary Kelly announced he would retire in January and named longtime Southwest executive Bob Jordan as his successor. Nealon had been seen as a possible candidate to succeed Kelly.</p>\n<p><b>SeaChange International(SEAC)</b> – SeaChange reported a quarterly loss of 3 cents per share, smaller than the 9 cents a share loss anticipated by analysts. The video management solutions company saw revenue exceed Street forecasts. The company said it has a “robust pipeline” of sales opportunities and significant momentum. The stock rallied 11.9% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>Monmouth Real Estate(MNR)</b> – The real estate investment trust added 1% in premarket action after saying it was re-exploring strategic alternatives, following investor feedback and prior expressions of takeover interest in the company.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-14 20:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;stock futures rallied&nbsp;on Tuesday after&nbsp;inflation data.</p>\n<p>U.S. S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 16.25 points, or 0.36%, at 08:35 am ET. Dow E-minis were up 123 points, or 0.35%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 54.25 points, or 0.35%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ca4324d36dad7984770e67ef4b59f6\" tg-width=\"441\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;prices for an array of consumer goods rose less than expected in August in a sign that inflation may be starting to cool, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.</p>\n<p>The consumer price index, which measures a basket of common products as well as various energy goods, increased 5.3% from a year ago and 0.3% from July.</p>\n<p>Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 5.4% annual rise and 0.4% on the month.</p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p>\n<p><b>Oracle(ORCL)</b> – Oracle reported quarterly earnings of $1.03 per share, 6 cents a share above consensus estimates. The business software giant’s revenue fell short of forecasts, however, amid increasing cloud computing competition. Oracle fell 3% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>Lucid Group(LCID)</b> –&nbsp;Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group fell 6% in premarket trading. An equity research analyst at Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the company at underweight.</p>\n<p><b>Angi(ANGI)</b> – Angi rose 3.3% in premarket trading after the digital marketplace for home services reported its August metrics, which included a 21% jump in revenue from a year earlier.</p>\n<p><b>Herbalife Nutrition(HLF)</b> – Herbalife shares tumbled 9.2% in the premarket after the maker of nutrition products cut its outlook. Herbalife cited lower than expected levels of activity by its independent distributors, likely due to pandemic-related uncertainty.</p>\n<p><b>Apple(AAPL)</b> – Apple issued a patch to its iOS system to fix a vulnerability related to the iPhone’s iMessage function. An Israeli firm had been exploiting the vulnerability since February to infect iPhones, according to research group Citizen Lab.</p>\n<p><b>Intuit(INTU) </b>– Intuit announced a deal to buy digital marketing firm Mailchimp for about $12 billion in cash and stock. That follows the TurboTax maker’s acquisition of Credit Karma last year for more than $7 billion. It had been reported earlier this month that Intuit and Mailchimp were in acquisition talks.</p>\n<p><b>Coinbase(COIN) </b>– The cryptocurrency exchange operator’s shares rose 1.3% in premarket trading after Piper Sandler reiterated an “overweight” rating on the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Cameco(CCJ) </b>– The Canada-based uranium producer continued its recent rally, up 1.6% in the premarket after rising in 10 of the past 11 sessions. It’s among uranium-related stocks that have caught the attention of investors on social media.</p>\n<p><b>Fox Corp. (FOXA)</b> – Fox finalized a deal to buy celebrity news platform TMZ from&nbsp;AT&amp;T’s(T) WarnerMedia unit. Terms were not disclosed, but The Wall Street Journal reported that TMZ was valued at less than $50 million after earlier indications that the two sides were talking about a price between $100 million and $125 million. Fox rose 1.1% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>Southwest Airlines(LUV) </b>– Southwest President Tom Nealon is retiring from the carrier effective immediately. His departure comes three months after CEO Gary Kelly announced he would retire in January and named longtime Southwest executive Bob Jordan as his successor. Nealon had been seen as a possible candidate to succeed Kelly.</p>\n<p><b>SeaChange International(SEAC)</b> – SeaChange reported a quarterly loss of 3 cents per share, smaller than the 9 cents a share loss anticipated by analysts. The video management solutions company saw revenue exceed Street forecasts. The company said it has a “robust pipeline” of sales opportunities and significant momentum. The stock rallied 11.9% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>Monmouth Real Estate(MNR)</b> – The real estate investment trust added 1% in premarket action after saying it was re-exploring strategic alternatives, following investor feedback and prior expressions of takeover interest in the company.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ANGI":"Angi Inc","ORCL":"甲骨文","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","LUV":"西南航空","HLF":"康宝莱","FOXA":"福克斯-A","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","INTU":"财捷",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","CCJ":"Cameco Corp","SEAC":"海易国际",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165374410","content_text":"U.S. stock futures rallied on Tuesday after inflation data.\nU.S. S&P 500 E-minis were up 16.25 points, or 0.36%, at 08:35 am ET. Dow E-minis were up 123 points, or 0.35%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 54.25 points, or 0.35%.\n\nU.S. prices for an array of consumer goods rose less than expected in August in a sign that inflation may be starting to cool, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.\nThe consumer price index, which measures a basket of common products as well as various energy goods, increased 5.3% from a year ago and 0.3% from July.\nEconomists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 5.4% annual rise and 0.4% on the month.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nOracle(ORCL) – Oracle reported quarterly earnings of $1.03 per share, 6 cents a share above consensus estimates. The business software giant’s revenue fell short of forecasts, however, amid increasing cloud computing competition. Oracle fell 3% in the premarket.\nLucid Group(LCID) – Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group fell 6% in premarket trading. An equity research analyst at Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the company at underweight.\nAngi(ANGI) – Angi rose 3.3% in premarket trading after the digital marketplace for home services reported its August metrics, which included a 21% jump in revenue from a year earlier.\nHerbalife Nutrition(HLF) – Herbalife shares tumbled 9.2% in the premarket after the maker of nutrition products cut its outlook. Herbalife cited lower than expected levels of activity by its independent distributors, likely due to pandemic-related uncertainty.\nApple(AAPL) – Apple issued a patch to its iOS system to fix a vulnerability related to the iPhone’s iMessage function. An Israeli firm had been exploiting the vulnerability since February to infect iPhones, according to research group Citizen Lab.\nIntuit(INTU) – Intuit announced a deal to buy digital marketing firm Mailchimp for about $12 billion in cash and stock. That follows the TurboTax maker’s acquisition of Credit Karma last year for more than $7 billion. It had been reported earlier this month that Intuit and Mailchimp were in acquisition talks.\nCoinbase(COIN) – The cryptocurrency exchange operator’s shares rose 1.3% in premarket trading after Piper Sandler reiterated an “overweight” rating on the stock.\nCameco(CCJ) – The Canada-based uranium producer continued its recent rally, up 1.6% in the premarket after rising in 10 of the past 11 sessions. It’s among uranium-related stocks that have caught the attention of investors on social media.\nFox Corp. (FOXA) – Fox finalized a deal to buy celebrity news platform TMZ from AT&T’s(T) WarnerMedia unit. Terms were not disclosed, but The Wall Street Journal reported that TMZ was valued at less than $50 million after earlier indications that the two sides were talking about a price between $100 million and $125 million. Fox rose 1.1% in premarket trading.\nSouthwest Airlines(LUV) – Southwest President Tom Nealon is retiring from the carrier effective immediately. His departure comes three months after CEO Gary Kelly announced he would retire in January and named longtime Southwest executive Bob Jordan as his successor. Nealon had been seen as a possible candidate to succeed Kelly.\nSeaChange International(SEAC) – SeaChange reported a quarterly loss of 3 cents per share, smaller than the 9 cents a share loss anticipated by analysts. The video management solutions company saw revenue exceed Street forecasts. The company said it has a “robust pipeline” of sales opportunities and significant momentum. The stock rallied 11.9% in premarket trading.\nMonmouth Real Estate(MNR) – The real estate investment trust added 1% in premarket action after saying it was re-exploring strategic alternatives, following investor feedback and prior expressions of takeover interest in the company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888099390,"gmtCreate":1631411548410,"gmtModify":1676530542440,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When is a good time to buy?","listText":"When is a good time to buy?","text":"When is a good time to buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888099390","repostId":"1101906502","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101906502","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631407634,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101906502?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-12 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101906502","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.Shares of Apple Report fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.On Sept. 14, the company will hold a virtual event to introduce the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.However, Apple remains in the news for other reas","content":"<p>Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.</p>\n<p>Shares of Apple&nbsp;Report&nbsp;fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.</p>\n<p>On Sept. 14, the company will&nbsp;hold a virtual event to introduce&nbsp;the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.</p>\n<p>However, Apple remains in the news for other reasons, too.</p>\n<p>After hitting new highs earlier this week, the stock declined Friday after news of a court ruling&nbsp;in its case with Epic Games.</p>\n<p>That’s alongside a report that was published by well-known Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who made the case that Apple stock&nbsp;is “compelling” ahead of its upcoming event.</p>\n<p>Like I said, it’s a lot of information for investors to digest. Let’s take a look at how the charts are setting up.</p>\n<p><b>Trading Apple Stock</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd94f6dcfc32af44a4ae542425f3c92f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Daily chart of Apple stock.</span></p>\n<p>Each time Apple has reported earnings this year, it has resulted in a selloff. Unfortunately, those selloffs would come right as the stock was at or near all-time highs. Those events are marked on the chart with blue arrows.</p>\n<p>It was even more frustrating that Apple&nbsp;blew out analysts’ expectations each time, yet the stock sold off anyway.</p>\n<p>However, rather than a massive dip following the most recent report, the stock only pulled back to the $145 area, near the prior high. It also held the 21-day moving average as support.</p>\n<p>The stock has since pushed up through $150 and earlier this week, hit new all-time highs.</p>\n<p>For now, we’re getting a dip back down to the key $150 area and the 21-day moving average. Aggressive bulls can buy this dip ahead of the company’s event on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>If we break Friday’s low, investors may consider stopping out of the trade and buying on a potentially larger dip down to the 50-day moving average or the $145 area.</p>\n<p>Below $145 may put the $138 level and the 200-day moving average in play.</p>\n<p>Should Apple trade up through the all-time high at $157.26, the 161.8% extension is in play up near $160. Above that mark could put the $172 to $175 zone on the table, depending on how investors react to the event.</p>\n<p>For what it’s worth, September is by far Apple’s worst-performing month, up just three of the last 11 years for the month.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy or Sell Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone Event?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-12 08:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-apple-aapl-stock-ahead-of-iphone13-event><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.\nShares of Apple Report fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-apple-aapl-stock-ahead-of-iphone13-event\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-apple-aapl-stock-ahead-of-iphone13-event","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101906502","content_text":"Apple stock was under pressure on Friday, with its iPhone event just days away. Here's how to trade the stock from here.\nShares of Apple Report fell $5.10, or 3.31%, to end at $148.97 Friday, as investors digested recent news and prepared for the iPhone event next week.\nOn Sept. 14, the company will hold a virtual event to introduce the new device. Dubbed “California Streaming,” it’s expected that Apple will introduce its new iPhone and Apple Watch.\nHowever, Apple remains in the news for other reasons, too.\nAfter hitting new highs earlier this week, the stock declined Friday after news of a court ruling in its case with Epic Games.\nThat’s alongside a report that was published by well-known Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who made the case that Apple stock is “compelling” ahead of its upcoming event.\nLike I said, it’s a lot of information for investors to digest. Let’s take a look at how the charts are setting up.\nTrading Apple Stock\nDaily chart of Apple stock.\nEach time Apple has reported earnings this year, it has resulted in a selloff. Unfortunately, those selloffs would come right as the stock was at or near all-time highs. Those events are marked on the chart with blue arrows.\nIt was even more frustrating that Apple blew out analysts’ expectations each time, yet the stock sold off anyway.\nHowever, rather than a massive dip following the most recent report, the stock only pulled back to the $145 area, near the prior high. It also held the 21-day moving average as support.\nThe stock has since pushed up through $150 and earlier this week, hit new all-time highs.\nFor now, we’re getting a dip back down to the key $150 area and the 21-day moving average. Aggressive bulls can buy this dip ahead of the company’s event on Tuesday.\nIf we break Friday’s low, investors may consider stopping out of the trade and buying on a potentially larger dip down to the 50-day moving average or the $145 area.\nBelow $145 may put the $138 level and the 200-day moving average in play.\nShould Apple trade up through the all-time high at $157.26, the 161.8% extension is in play up near $160. Above that mark could put the $172 to $175 zone on the table, depending on how investors react to the event.\nFor what it’s worth, September is by far Apple’s worst-performing month, up just three of the last 11 years for the month.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906012446,"gmtCreate":1659453073488,"gmtModify":1705980512844,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish","listText":"Bullish","text":"Bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906012446","repostId":"1110799720","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110799720","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659454654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110799720?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-02 23:37","market":"other","language":"en","title":"S&P 500: Taking Profit On The Long Positions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110799720","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI am taking profits on the tactical long positions.At this point, I am neutral, with a bearis","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>I am taking profits on the tactical long positions.</li><li>At this point, I am neutral, with a bearish bias.</li><li>The fundamentals have deteriorated, while stocks sharply bounced.</li></ul><p><b>Recent Recommendations of S&amp;P 500</b></p><p>Here is my recent record on S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) (SP500) (SPX):</p><ul><li>After being a long-term bull, I turned bearish and recommended asellonSPYon March 25th 2022, at 451 on SPY. My bearish thesis was very simple: I anticipated that the Fed would increase the interest rates aggressively to combat the rising inflation, which will cause a recession and the recessionary bear market.</li><li>On April 22, I reiterated the expectation that the Fed would aggressively raise interest rates in 2022, when I recommended a sell on SP500 with the index value at 4271.</li><li>On May 3rd, I pointed out that the liquidity risk due to expectations of monetary policy tightening is easing and that monetary policy expectations are priced in (the peak Fed hawkishness) and I suggested covering short positions and going neutral on SPY at around 415.</li><li>On May 30, I recommended to start buying S&amp;P 500, with SPY at 413, and continued to recommend buying S&amp;P 500 on June 27with SPY at 388, and July 18 with SPY at 388. The bullish thesis was also very simple: we were past the peak inflation and expected to be past the peak headline inflation given the falling commodity prices, and thus, past the Fed hawkishness. Further, given the still positive yield curve spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond and the 3-month Treasury Bill, the probability of an imminent recession was very low. Thus, I expected at least a nice (and significant) counter-trend summer rally.</li></ul><p><b>Downgrade from buy to neutral</b></p><p>Since reaching the (cycle) bottom on June 16th, S&amp;P 500 is up almost 13%, and SPY is currently at 411 near the breakeven of my May 30th buying point, and significantly higher than my June 27th and July 18th buying points. I am willing to take profits on these long positions. Here is the SPY chart that illustrates the significant countertrend bounce to the top range:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8922eaf1a5e1edfdacb69e1c401c3bc9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>I am downgrading SPY to neutral for these reasons:</p><p>1) The 10Y-3mo spread has significantly narrowed to 0.26%, which is although still positive, getting really close to inversion. Thus, the probability of an imminent recession is too high to ignore now. Here is the chart;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6a289024ab1fe23863cb2e03cafdaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>2) Even more problematic is that the narrowing of the 10Y-3mo is also created by the falling 10Y yields, which signals the economic slowdown. More importantly, the 10Y yields are falling due to the falling real rates, which is signaling a possible flight to quality and expectations on policy easing (not tightening). Here is the chart of 10Y TIPS (real interest rates), which have fallen towards the zero percent level (0.20%):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a40a5667fce1317ab25f12a2362313\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>3) The credit risk is rising. The spread between BBB-10Y is reaching the cyclical high at 2.42%. Although this spread is still modest and requires the rise above 3% to be considered high, the trend is to the upside.</p><p>4) The market is now pricing that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in July of 2023, which indicates the expectations of a possible recession in 2023. Here are the current monetary policy expectations, based on Global Academic View report:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a4d5b38a7bfe1df8cb60589bfba130\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"138\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global Academic View</p><p>Considering the point 2 (falling real interest rates) and 4 (expectations on interest rate cuts), the market is likely to respond negatively to slowing economic data and start pricing the <b>Phase 2</b>of the bear market - an imminent recession selloff.</p><p>Thus, I am willing to take profit on the summer rally bounce and evaluate what exactly the market is pricing next and initiate the new positions accordingly.</p><p><b>The Bearish case</b></p><p>The bearish case is now the baseline expectations, as long as the 10y-3mo spreads invert, and the 10Y continues to fall. The bearish case is the Phase 2 of the full bear market - the pricing of an imminent recession, where the economic data slows and corporate earnings get downgraded.</p><p><b>The Bullish case</b></p><p>The bullish case is the soft landing case, where the Fed makes the full dovish pivot and does not increase interest rates above the 10Y yields.</p><p><b>The Neutral case</b></p><p>The fact is, we still don&#39;t have enough information with respect to the bearish case or the bullish case. We don&#39;t know how is the Fed reacting to the potential rising unemployment, with still elevated inflation. Will the Fed tolerate a higher inflation to prevent a rising unemployment? Will the Fed specifically acknowledge that the 10Y yields are the celling for the Federal Funds rate?</p><p>The Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed is currently in the neutral, but also that further interest rate hikes are warranted. Well, this will invert the 10y-3mo curve and likely cause a recession.</p><p>More importantly, the S&amp;P500 is now rising, and many are likely to start buying, while the shorts are likely to be forced to cover. So, the summer rally could continue - despite the worsening fundamentals.</p><p>I view this technical picture more as an opportunity to initiate short positions (if the bear case prevails). Thus, at this point, the neutral position means, I am not buying the summer rally anymore, and taking profits and tactical longs. It also means, I am waiting to initiate new positions, as the new set up emerges.</p><p><b>Note on recent SPY performance</b></p><p>Over the last month, SPY, which is the ETF that tracks S&amp;P500, is up by 8.16%, led by Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) up by 16.7% and Technology (XLK) up by 12%. Both of these are cyclical sectors that have bounced from the deep sell-offs, but given the expectations of an imminent recession, the performance of these sectors is unsustainable. It is likely that the recent performance is just a bounce, meaning, as the economy starts to visibly slow down, these cyclical sectors are more likely to continue to sell off, dragging the SPY to the next leg lower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ecfe935e912e330cbe58152e9c0c7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500: Taking Profit On The Long Positions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500: Taking Profit On The Long Positions\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-02 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528449-sp500-taking-profit-on-long-positions><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI am taking profits on the tactical long positions.At this point, I am neutral, with a bearish bias.The fundamentals have deteriorated, while stocks sharply bounced.Recent Recommendations of S&...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528449-sp500-taking-profit-on-long-positions\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528449-sp500-taking-profit-on-long-positions","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110799720","content_text":"SummaryI am taking profits on the tactical long positions.At this point, I am neutral, with a bearish bias.The fundamentals have deteriorated, while stocks sharply bounced.Recent Recommendations of S&P 500Here is my recent record on S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) (SP500) (SPX):After being a long-term bull, I turned bearish and recommended asellonSPYon March 25th 2022, at 451 on SPY. My bearish thesis was very simple: I anticipated that the Fed would increase the interest rates aggressively to combat the rising inflation, which will cause a recession and the recessionary bear market.On April 22, I reiterated the expectation that the Fed would aggressively raise interest rates in 2022, when I recommended a sell on SP500 with the index value at 4271.On May 3rd, I pointed out that the liquidity risk due to expectations of monetary policy tightening is easing and that monetary policy expectations are priced in (the peak Fed hawkishness) and I suggested covering short positions and going neutral on SPY at around 415.On May 30, I recommended to start buying S&P 500, with SPY at 413, and continued to recommend buying S&P 500 on June 27with SPY at 388, and July 18 with SPY at 388. The bullish thesis was also very simple: we were past the peak inflation and expected to be past the peak headline inflation given the falling commodity prices, and thus, past the Fed hawkishness. Further, given the still positive yield curve spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond and the 3-month Treasury Bill, the probability of an imminent recession was very low. Thus, I expected at least a nice (and significant) counter-trend summer rally.Downgrade from buy to neutralSince reaching the (cycle) bottom on June 16th, S&P 500 is up almost 13%, and SPY is currently at 411 near the breakeven of my May 30th buying point, and significantly higher than my June 27th and July 18th buying points. I am willing to take profits on these long positions. Here is the SPY chart that illustrates the significant countertrend bounce to the top range:SPY data by YChartsI am downgrading SPY to neutral for these reasons:1) The 10Y-3mo spread has significantly narrowed to 0.26%, which is although still positive, getting really close to inversion. Thus, the probability of an imminent recession is too high to ignore now. Here is the chart;FRED2) Even more problematic is that the narrowing of the 10Y-3mo is also created by the falling 10Y yields, which signals the economic slowdown. More importantly, the 10Y yields are falling due to the falling real rates, which is signaling a possible flight to quality and expectations on policy easing (not tightening). Here is the chart of 10Y TIPS (real interest rates), which have fallen towards the zero percent level (0.20%):FRED3) The credit risk is rising. The spread between BBB-10Y is reaching the cyclical high at 2.42%. Although this spread is still modest and requires the rise above 3% to be considered high, the trend is to the upside.4) The market is now pricing that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in July of 2023, which indicates the expectations of a possible recession in 2023. Here are the current monetary policy expectations, based on Global Academic View report:Global Academic ViewConsidering the point 2 (falling real interest rates) and 4 (expectations on interest rate cuts), the market is likely to respond negatively to slowing economic data and start pricing the Phase 2of the bear market - an imminent recession selloff.Thus, I am willing to take profit on the summer rally bounce and evaluate what exactly the market is pricing next and initiate the new positions accordingly.The Bearish caseThe bearish case is now the baseline expectations, as long as the 10y-3mo spreads invert, and the 10Y continues to fall. The bearish case is the Phase 2 of the full bear market - the pricing of an imminent recession, where the economic data slows and corporate earnings get downgraded.The Bullish caseThe bullish case is the soft landing case, where the Fed makes the full dovish pivot and does not increase interest rates above the 10Y yields.The Neutral caseThe fact is, we still don't have enough information with respect to the bearish case or the bullish case. We don't know how is the Fed reacting to the potential rising unemployment, with still elevated inflation. Will the Fed tolerate a higher inflation to prevent a rising unemployment? Will the Fed specifically acknowledge that the 10Y yields are the celling for the Federal Funds rate?The Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed is currently in the neutral, but also that further interest rate hikes are warranted. Well, this will invert the 10y-3mo curve and likely cause a recession.More importantly, the S&P500 is now rising, and many are likely to start buying, while the shorts are likely to be forced to cover. So, the summer rally could continue - despite the worsening fundamentals.I view this technical picture more as an opportunity to initiate short positions (if the bear case prevails). Thus, at this point, the neutral position means, I am not buying the summer rally anymore, and taking profits and tactical longs. It also means, I am waiting to initiate new positions, as the new set up emerges.Note on recent SPY performanceOver the last month, SPY, which is the ETF that tracks S&P500, is up by 8.16%, led by Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) up by 16.7% and Technology (XLK) up by 12%. Both of these are cyclical sectors that have bounced from the deep sell-offs, but given the expectations of an imminent recession, the performance of these sectors is unsustainable. It is likely that the recent performance is just a bounce, meaning, as the economy starts to visibly slow down, these cyclical sectors are more likely to continue to sell off, dragging the SPY to the next leg lower.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886716806,"gmtCreate":1631625746705,"gmtModify":1676530592881,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886716806","repostId":"1165374410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888007416,"gmtCreate":1631411456235,"gmtModify":1676530542401,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it boom?","listText":"Will it boom?","text":"Will it boom?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888007416","repostId":"1145075862","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145075862","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631411128,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145075862?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-12 09:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pinterest Stock: 2 Reasons To Be Excited and 3 Reasons To Worry","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145075862","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Pinterest is more than a pure social media stock, but it currently has too many fundamental issues","content":"<p>Compared to other social media stocks,<b>Pinterest</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>PINS</u></b>) stock is a bit of an oddball. I personally don’t have much use for the platform, but I can see the appeal … somewhat. After all, we could all use a daily dose of inspiration for shopping, relaxing, business and marketing purposes. Still, I’m not the only one who doesn’t quite “get it.”</p>\n<p>But if you’re someone who is interested in investing in PINS stock, here’s a deeper look at what you need to know about the company — and stock — moving forward.</p>\n<p><b>PINS Stock: A Very Strong Balance Sheet</b></p>\n<p>A close look at the balance sheet for Pinterest shows that it has strong financial strength. In fact, according to<i>GuruFocus</i>the current cash-to-debt, debt-to-equity ratios are 17.62 and 0.05, respectively.</p>\n<p>A strong balance sheet is a positive factor when considering whether a stock is investment-worthy. However, it is not the only thing to consider. When looking at the balance sheet, the phrase “cash is king” should ring in your ears. After all, plenty of cash is necessary to run a successful business. Thankfully for PINS, the company has performed well in this regard.</p>\n<p>In 2019, it reported cash and short-term investments of $1.72 billion. That was an increase of 173.34% compared to 2018. In 2020, Pinterest experienced another moderate increase of 2.61% with a figure of $1.76 billion reported.</p>\n<p>In general, the cash and cash equivalents growth for the period 2017-2020 is too high.</p>\n<p><b>Revenue Growth: Consistent and Strong</b></p>\n<p>Revenue is the start of everything in business, bringing cash and using cash, to make a profit. Pinterest excels in its revenue growth for 2017-2020. According to<i>MarketWatch</i>, in 2017, it reported revenue of $472.85 million. Then in 2018, 2019 and 2020, its revenue grew 59.87%, 51.17% and 48.12%, respectively. Pinterest reported 2020 revenue of $1.69 billion. This is a strong revenue trend that I admire.</p>\n<p>But, while a strong balance sheet and strong revenue growth are the two factors to like about Pinterest, it isn’t without its blemishes. Here are the three main things that make PINS stock less appealing.</p>\n<p><b>Lackluster User Growth</b></p>\n<p>Pinterest benefited greatly from the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The stock reached a 52-week high of $89.90 on strong momentum that started in late 2020. But the stock has since tumbled about 40% to its current price near $55.</p>\n<p>The main issue? Repeated&nbsp;misses on its user growth targets. The news on lower-than-expected monthly users led to a downgrade by JPMorgan&nbsp;on Pinterest stock.</p>\n<p>If lackluster or, worse,<i>declining</i>&nbsp;user growth continues in the next quarters this could put a significant dent in the long-term case for PINS stock. After all, it would lead to a decline in advertising revenue for Pinterest. Not so good.</p>\n<p>Pinterest’s management must find a solution to this decline in users as more people start to enter the “new normal.” Otherwise, its success in 2020 will be short lived.</p>\n<p><b>Profitability: Not Present Yet</b></p>\n<p>Another risk factor to consider with Pinterest is that despite its strong revenue growth, the company is still losing money. We can see this trend in its net losses of $130.04 million, $62.97 million, $1.36 billion and $128.32 million for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively.</p>\n<p>This ultimately points to an inefficient business model, as the company is struggling to deliver profits.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation: Too Pricey</b></p>\n<p>The final issue with PINS stock that I’d like to bring to your attention is it’s overprice valuation. If we use<i>MSN Money</i>to<i>c</i>ompare key financial metrics, such as price-to-sales ratio, price-to-book value and price-to-cash flow ratio, to same ratios of the Software &amp; IT Services space more broadly, we find that Pinterest is relatively overvalued.</p>\n<p>Specifically, PINS stock has a price-to-sales ratio of 21.23x, a price-to-book value ratio of 15.57x and a price-to-cash flow ratio of 3,145x. Meanwhile, the industry’s equivalent ratios are as follows: 7.35x, 7.76x and 29.68x, respectively.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, PINS stock has some severe fundamental issues to solve before it’s truly buy-worthy in my book. Until revenue generates profit and its valuation is attractive, I suggest avoiding the stock.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pinterest Stock: 2 Reasons To Be Excited and 3 Reasons To Worry</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPinterest Stock: 2 Reasons To Be Excited and 3 Reasons To Worry\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-12 09:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/09/pinterest-stock-2-reasons-to-be-excited-and-3-reasons-to-worry/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Compared to other social media stocks,Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) stock is a bit of an oddball. I personally don’t have much use for the platform, but I can see the appeal … somewhat. After all, we could ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/pinterest-stock-2-reasons-to-be-excited-and-3-reasons-to-worry/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PINS":"Pinterest, Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/pinterest-stock-2-reasons-to-be-excited-and-3-reasons-to-worry/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145075862","content_text":"Compared to other social media stocks,Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) stock is a bit of an oddball. I personally don’t have much use for the platform, but I can see the appeal … somewhat. After all, we could all use a daily dose of inspiration for shopping, relaxing, business and marketing purposes. Still, I’m not the only one who doesn’t quite “get it.”\nBut if you’re someone who is interested in investing in PINS stock, here’s a deeper look at what you need to know about the company — and stock — moving forward.\nPINS Stock: A Very Strong Balance Sheet\nA close look at the balance sheet for Pinterest shows that it has strong financial strength. In fact, according toGuruFocusthe current cash-to-debt, debt-to-equity ratios are 17.62 and 0.05, respectively.\nA strong balance sheet is a positive factor when considering whether a stock is investment-worthy. However, it is not the only thing to consider. When looking at the balance sheet, the phrase “cash is king” should ring in your ears. After all, plenty of cash is necessary to run a successful business. Thankfully for PINS, the company has performed well in this regard.\nIn 2019, it reported cash and short-term investments of $1.72 billion. That was an increase of 173.34% compared to 2018. In 2020, Pinterest experienced another moderate increase of 2.61% with a figure of $1.76 billion reported.\nIn general, the cash and cash equivalents growth for the period 2017-2020 is too high.\nRevenue Growth: Consistent and Strong\nRevenue is the start of everything in business, bringing cash and using cash, to make a profit. Pinterest excels in its revenue growth for 2017-2020. According toMarketWatch, in 2017, it reported revenue of $472.85 million. Then in 2018, 2019 and 2020, its revenue grew 59.87%, 51.17% and 48.12%, respectively. Pinterest reported 2020 revenue of $1.69 billion. This is a strong revenue trend that I admire.\nBut, while a strong balance sheet and strong revenue growth are the two factors to like about Pinterest, it isn’t without its blemishes. Here are the three main things that make PINS stock less appealing.\nLackluster User Growth\nPinterest benefited greatly from the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The stock reached a 52-week high of $89.90 on strong momentum that started in late 2020. But the stock has since tumbled about 40% to its current price near $55.\nThe main issue? Repeated misses on its user growth targets. The news on lower-than-expected monthly users led to a downgrade by JPMorgan on Pinterest stock.\nIf lackluster or, worse,declining user growth continues in the next quarters this could put a significant dent in the long-term case for PINS stock. After all, it would lead to a decline in advertising revenue for Pinterest. Not so good.\nPinterest’s management must find a solution to this decline in users as more people start to enter the “new normal.” Otherwise, its success in 2020 will be short lived.\nProfitability: Not Present Yet\nAnother risk factor to consider with Pinterest is that despite its strong revenue growth, the company is still losing money. We can see this trend in its net losses of $130.04 million, $62.97 million, $1.36 billion and $128.32 million for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively.\nThis ultimately points to an inefficient business model, as the company is struggling to deliver profits.\nValuation: Too Pricey\nThe final issue with PINS stock that I’d like to bring to your attention is it’s overprice valuation. If we useMSN Moneytocompare key financial metrics, such as price-to-sales ratio, price-to-book value and price-to-cash flow ratio, to same ratios of the Software & IT Services space more broadly, we find that Pinterest is relatively overvalued.\nSpecifically, PINS stock has a price-to-sales ratio of 21.23x, a price-to-book value ratio of 15.57x and a price-to-cash flow ratio of 3,145x. Meanwhile, the industry’s equivalent ratios are as follows: 7.35x, 7.76x and 29.68x, respectively.\nUltimately, PINS stock has some severe fundamental issues to solve before it’s truly buy-worthy in my book. Until revenue generates profit and its valuation is attractive, I suggest avoiding the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889416792,"gmtCreate":1631168406516,"gmtModify":1676530485688,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Legit other stocks sank too ..","listText":"Legit other stocks sank too ..","text":"Legit other stocks sank too ..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889416792","repostId":"1152602866","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152602866","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631153755,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152602866?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152602866","media":"Barrons","summary":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. Th","content":"<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious&nbsp;outlooks for stocks&nbsp;this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.</p>\n<p>The macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.</p>\n<p>Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at&nbsp;Morgan Stanley,sees a&nbsp;“bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&amp;P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&amp;P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.</p>\n<p>Subramanian expects the S&amp;P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.</p>\n<p>Subramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&amp;P 500 index level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fde875fdd5b4e849b888c5d1316da5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:FactSet</span></p>\n<p>Sheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should&nbsp;drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.</p>\n<p>Congressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.</p>\n<p>Going forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.</p>\n<p>Either way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&amp;P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&amp;P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.</p>\n<p>“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”</p>\n<p>That’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.</p>\n<p>Subramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”</p>\n<p>Small caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.</p>\n<p>The small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&amp;P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.</p>\n<p>Inflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”</p>\n<p>In particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.</p>\n<p>Those could include&nbsp;Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or&nbsp;Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Strategists Are Cautious About This Fall. Why They’re Worried.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-strategists-are-cautious-about-this-fall-why-theyre-worried-51631131168?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152602866","content_text":"A pair of Wall Street strategists have just come out with cautious outlooks for stocks this fall. They’re joining a growing chorus.\nThe macro markets experts are as bullish as ever on the ongoing economic recovery, but much less so on equities.Federal Reserve tapering, political drama, and pricey valuations could all trip up the stock market this fall.\nAndrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley,sees a “bumpy” next few months, and consequently has downgraded U.S. stocks to the equivalent of Sell. And Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Securities, published a pair of S&P 500 targets that imply near-term losses and an at-best flat market through the end of next year.\n“Investor sentiment and valuations are extended—a lot of optimism is already priced in—and our Long-Term Valuation Model indicates negative returns for the S&P 500 over the next decade (-0.8% annualized returns) for the first time since the Tech Bubble,” she writes.\nSubramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4250 at the end of this year, down about 6% from current levels around 4500. She sees the index rebounding to 4600 by the end of 2022, which would be a gain of barely 2% from today.\nSubramanian’s measure of investor sentiment—a contrarian indicator—is signaling euphoria, right when she’s beginning to worry about profit margins and earnings growth. She points to supply-chain disruptions and inflation in wages and input costs as coming headwinds to profitability. Add to that: Interest rates are likely to be higher rather than lower in the coming year—weighing on valuation multiples—and there’s not much for Subramanian to like on the S&P 500 index level.\nSource:FactSet\nSheets expects the Fed to announce its plans to begin reducing monthly asset purchases later this month, and for officials to also update their so-called “dot plot” of future interest-rate forecasts to show a faster-than-expected pace of hikes. Those should drive Treasury yields higher, Sheets argues, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.\nCongressional wrangling over traditional and “social” infrastructure bills—and potential higher corporate and personal taxes—will produce some negative headlines in the coming weeks. And economic and earnings growth rates have likely already peaked for the current cycle, Sheets writes.\nGoing forward, there are two ways he sees things going: More fiscal stimulus, less Covid-19, and continued rapid U.S. economic growth would encourage the Fed to tighten policy, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. Alternatively, slowing growth would be a challenge to pricey stocks, and could prompt a “growth scare” selloff.\nEither way, the implication is for negative stock-market returns, and Sheets prefers European and Japanese equities to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists have a mid-2022 S&P 500 target of 4225, down about 6% from here.\n“This is a normal dilemma,” Sheets writes. “After the initial post-recession bounce, growth usually moderates. An improving economy usually brings more cost pressure and inflation as demand rises and labour markets tighten. It usually means central banks shift to tighten policy.”\nThat’s not to say that an economic recession is on the horizon or that earnings will fall. It’s just a new phase in the cycle, and one in which the average stock doesn’t perform as well.\nSubramanian agrees: “This environment is bullish for interest rates, inflation, and companies geared to U.S. economic growth,” she writes. “We see several areas of the market as well-positioned despite our more cautious outlook on equities: buy inflation-protected yield, and U.S. small caps.”\nSmall caps tend to do well when economic growth is strong, and Subramanian sees potential benefits from greater infrastructure spending by the government and capex investment from companies in the coming year. Plus, cheaper relative valuations than large caps make small caps less of a lift.\nThe small-cap Russell 2000 index currently trades for about 29 times its estimated earnings over the next 12 months, versus its average of about 27.5 times over the past 25 years, according to data from Bloomberg. That compares with the S&P 500 at more than 22 times forward earnings today and a long-term average around 17 times.\nInflation-protected yield means dividend-growth stocks. “Bonds offer yield with no inflation protection, commodities offer inflation exposure but no yield,” Subramanian writes. “Stocks sit in the middle: earnings, unlike bond yields, are nominal and grow with inflation.”\nIn particular, Subramanian likes dividend-growth stocks in sectors like energy, financials, and materials which stand to benefit from a growing economy and faster-than-average inflation.\nThose could include Bank of America(ticker: BAC),Citigroup(C),Newmont(NEM),EOG Resources(EOG), or Pioneer Natural Resources(PXD), according to a Barron’s screen for dividend-growth stocks in those industries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082839107,"gmtCreate":1650548590666,"gmtModify":1676534749049,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have a nice day all.","listText":"Have a nice day all.","text":"Have a nice day all.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082839107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869481663,"gmtCreate":1632317061252,"gmtModify":1676530750244,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it cheap to buy?","listText":"Is it cheap to buy?","text":"Is it cheap to buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/869481663","repostId":"1146187405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146187405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632303895,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146187405?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-22 17:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed in focus today with taper talk and new dot plot engrossing Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146187405","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The Federal Reserve takes center stage, but the decision could well be a dud for a market that's bee","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve takes center stage, but the decision could well be a dud for a market that's been hyping up big macro events lately.</p>\n<p>This is certainly the most important FOMC meeting since, well, the last FOMC meeting. But if Chairman Jay Powell and company avoid taper talk and keep rate forecasts steady, Wall Street could shrug it off, like recent jobs and inflation reports.</p>\n<p>While nobody expects a rate hike when the statement arrives, there'scertainly a lot for the Fed to consider.</p>\n<p>\"Fed has to navigate desire to taper asset purchases through land mine of uncertainties about the economy and the risks posed by variants, debt ceiling politics, China &amp; inflation,\" Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, tweeted yesterday.</p>\n<p>Stock index futures are higher after dip-buying faded yesterday and the broader market closed lower again. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 1 basis point to 1.33%.</p>\n<p>There is some speculation that the recent market selloff, with the S&amp;P looking at itsworst monthly performance in a year, could make Fed members gun-shy about a hawkish tilt. But Renaissance Macro Research says the current selloff is \"not even close to having the Fed shift course.\"</p>\n<p>The \"S&amp;P 500(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)is basically flat since the Fed’s July 28 confab,\" RenMac tweets. \"When we think about the last few times China was the source of the concern 2015/2016, the US equity decline was far more pronounced.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2738fa67abd11035dbb2f2a638f54918\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>Asset purchase tapering.</b>Calls for the Fed to trim its $120B per month in asset purchases are growing as inflation heats up. But the consensus is that there will be no official announcement today.</p>\n<p>Two-thirds of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a November announcement, with more than half expecting the Fed to start the taper in December.</p>\n<p>Still, Powell has been adamant he will give ample notice for any moves.</p>\n<p>The August jobs report gave \"the doves on the Federal Reserve’s board, essentially where we think the Chair resides today, some fodder for postponing a tapering of the QE asset purchase program, though we think this would be a mistake,\" BlackRock's Rick Rieder writes. \"Yet, we do believe that we will learn more details in September from the FOMC meeting, relative to what the Fed’s schedule for tapering will be.\"</p>\n<p>A change in the wording of the statement may be where the market gets that signal.</p>\n<p>\"Expect the Fed to put off until November any announcement on slowing its $120 billion a month in asset purchases,\" economist Joseph Brusuelas writes in hisReal Economy Blog. \"If the Fed signals any change, expect different language in the third paragraph of its statement, where the committee may update the risk to the outlook as balanced, which may signal tapering before the end of the year.\"</p>\n<p>\"In 2013, before its previous round of tapering, the Fed used its statement to signal coming policy action, so it may choose to take that approach this week.\"</p>\n<p>Mohamed El-Erian saysthe Fed needs to act as the window to tapering is closing.</p>\n<p><b>Dissecting the dot plot:</b>The latest dot plot chart of Fed member interest rate projections, which caused a stir last time, will also be closely watched, much to the chagrin of Powell.</p>\n<p>The \"sole purpose\" of the \"fabled dot plot ... is to increase confusion and misunderstanding in financial markets,\" UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan writes.</p>\n<p>The dot plot is meant to illustrate where individual members see rates going, but not where they will or necessarily want them to go and the Fed chief has said it is not a great forecaster.</p>\n<p>But if three members raise their 2022 dots, the new median will be for a quarter-point hike that year, and Wall Street banks have been aggressively marketing short-term interest rate derivatives that would pay off with tightening pulled forward, Bloomberg reports. (See chart at the bottom.)</p>\n<p>\"Watch the dots - likely will see initial rate hike pulled into 2022 with more in 2023,\" Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist for Schwab, tweets. \"Look out for unemp projections - will indicate what Fed sees as 'full employment.'\"</p>\n<p><b>Ethics questions:</b>&nbsp;Beyond monetary policy, Powell may face some difficult questions about the recent controversy of the asset portfolios of Fed governors.</p>\n<p>Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan's trading in individual stocks last year, including several megacaps that tend to benefit from lower interest rates, prompted the Fed chairman to&nbsp;open an ethics review.</p>\n<p>And&nbsp;Powell and two other Fed members owned securities that the central bank was buying last year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe97d77d54cfe99de4de152cdfc4ab7\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"698\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed in focus today with taper talk and new dot plot engrossing Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed in focus today with taper talk and new dot plot engrossing Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-22 17:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3742098-fed-in-focus-today-with-taper-talk-and-new-dot-plot-engrossing-wall-street><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve takes center stage, but the decision could well be a dud for a market that's been hyping up big macro events lately.\nThis is certainly the most important FOMC meeting since, well, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3742098-fed-in-focus-today-with-taper-talk-and-new-dot-plot-engrossing-wall-street\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3742098-fed-in-focus-today-with-taper-talk-and-new-dot-plot-engrossing-wall-street","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146187405","content_text":"The Federal Reserve takes center stage, but the decision could well be a dud for a market that's been hyping up big macro events lately.\nThis is certainly the most important FOMC meeting since, well, the last FOMC meeting. But if Chairman Jay Powell and company avoid taper talk and keep rate forecasts steady, Wall Street could shrug it off, like recent jobs and inflation reports.\nWhile nobody expects a rate hike when the statement arrives, there'scertainly a lot for the Fed to consider.\n\"Fed has to navigate desire to taper asset purchases through land mine of uncertainties about the economy and the risks posed by variants, debt ceiling politics, China & inflation,\" Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, tweeted yesterday.\nStock index futures are higher after dip-buying faded yesterday and the broader market closed lower again. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 1 basis point to 1.33%.\nThere is some speculation that the recent market selloff, with the S&P looking at itsworst monthly performance in a year, could make Fed members gun-shy about a hawkish tilt. But Renaissance Macro Research says the current selloff is \"not even close to having the Fed shift course.\"\nThe \"S&P 500(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)is basically flat since the Fed’s July 28 confab,\" RenMac tweets. \"When we think about the last few times China was the source of the concern 2015/2016, the US equity decline was far more pronounced.\"\n\nAsset purchase tapering.Calls for the Fed to trim its $120B per month in asset purchases are growing as inflation heats up. But the consensus is that there will be no official announcement today.\nTwo-thirds of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a November announcement, with more than half expecting the Fed to start the taper in December.\nStill, Powell has been adamant he will give ample notice for any moves.\nThe August jobs report gave \"the doves on the Federal Reserve’s board, essentially where we think the Chair resides today, some fodder for postponing a tapering of the QE asset purchase program, though we think this would be a mistake,\" BlackRock's Rick Rieder writes. \"Yet, we do believe that we will learn more details in September from the FOMC meeting, relative to what the Fed’s schedule for tapering will be.\"\nA change in the wording of the statement may be where the market gets that signal.\n\"Expect the Fed to put off until November any announcement on slowing its $120 billion a month in asset purchases,\" economist Joseph Brusuelas writes in hisReal Economy Blog. \"If the Fed signals any change, expect different language in the third paragraph of its statement, where the committee may update the risk to the outlook as balanced, which may signal tapering before the end of the year.\"\n\"In 2013, before its previous round of tapering, the Fed used its statement to signal coming policy action, so it may choose to take that approach this week.\"\nMohamed El-Erian saysthe Fed needs to act as the window to tapering is closing.\nDissecting the dot plot:The latest dot plot chart of Fed member interest rate projections, which caused a stir last time, will also be closely watched, much to the chagrin of Powell.\nThe \"sole purpose\" of the \"fabled dot plot ... is to increase confusion and misunderstanding in financial markets,\" UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan writes.\nThe dot plot is meant to illustrate where individual members see rates going, but not where they will or necessarily want them to go and the Fed chief has said it is not a great forecaster.\nBut if three members raise their 2022 dots, the new median will be for a quarter-point hike that year, and Wall Street banks have been aggressively marketing short-term interest rate derivatives that would pay off with tightening pulled forward, Bloomberg reports. (See chart at the bottom.)\n\"Watch the dots - likely will see initial rate hike pulled into 2022 with more in 2023,\" Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist for Schwab, tweets. \"Look out for unemp projections - will indicate what Fed sees as 'full employment.'\"\nEthics questions: Beyond monetary policy, Powell may face some difficult questions about the recent controversy of the asset portfolios of Fed governors.\nDallas Fed President Robert Kaplan's trading in individual stocks last year, including several megacaps that tend to benefit from lower interest rates, prompted the Fed chairman to open an ethics review.\nAnd Powell and two other Fed members owned securities that the central bank was buying last year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880911101,"gmtCreate":1631008014903,"gmtModify":1676530440965,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Which one struggle? How long it can go?","listText":"Which one struggle? How long it can go?","text":"Which one struggle? How long it can go?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880911101","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130130857?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p>\n<p>In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p>\n<p>That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p>\n<p>Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p>\n<p>The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p>\n<p>The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p>\n<p>A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p>\n<p>For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p>\n<p>Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p>\n<p>“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p>\n<p>The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p>\n<p>Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p>\n<p>If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p>\n<p>If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p>\n<p>Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p>\n<p>A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p>\n<p>An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p>\n<p>These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n</blockquote>\n<p>The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p>\n<p>RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p>\n<p>“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p>\n<p>But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p>\n<p>“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p>\n<p><b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p>\n<p>Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p>\n<p>“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p>\n<p>He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p>\n<p>For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p>\n<p>“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p>\n<p>Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p>\n<p>Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p>\n<p>“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p>\n<p>Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p>\n<p>Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p>\n<p>Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p>\n<p>Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p>\n<p>After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 17:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958087051,"gmtCreate":1673586588474,"gmtModify":1676538860417,"author":{"id":"4092751843658000","authorId":"4092751843658000","name":"peanutz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092751843658000","authorIdStr":"4092751843658000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good day all","listText":"Good day all","text":"Good day all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958087051","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}