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2022-10-30

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Wall Street's new savior: "Fiscal version of QE" coming?

2022-08-10

Meaning? Good or bad news?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-08-09

Like

Meme-Stock Frenzy Returns, Baffling Wall Street’s "Smart Guys"

2022-08-05

Nice start and hope will more than that

2022-08-03

I will keep for 1 to 2 days

2022-08-02

$AMTD International(AMTD)$suspension!!!

2022-07-28

$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$will rebound after 1pm?

2022-07-28

Like please. Thanks dudes

GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal

2022-07-28

Wait for market open and see the reaction, better buckle up your seat belt.

GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal

2022-07-28

Got to wait for awhile... will sink again

GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal

2022-07-28

👌

U.S. Q2 GDP Come Today. The Recession Debate Won’t End

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07:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street's new savior: \"Fiscal version of QE\" coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103409968","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"是左手倒右手，还是一石二鸟？9月以来，美债流动性指标达到了疫情时期的最差水平。市场原本期待美联储能效仿英国央行，站出来挽救正走向崩溃的美债。但出乎意料的是，美联储没有站出来，站出来的是美国财政部！10","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is it the left hand to the right hand, or does it kill two birds with one stone? Since September, U.S. debt liquidity indicators have reached their worst level during the epidemic. The market had expected the Federal Reserve to follow the example of the Bank of England and stand up to save the collapsing U.S. debt.</p><p><b>But unexpectedly, the Federal Reserve didn't come forward, and it was the U.S. Treasury Department that came forward!</b></p><p>In October, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen admitted more than once that she was worried about the $24 trillion market, and couldn't wait to hint that the Treasury would take actions to protect liquidity, such as buying back U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p><b>Is \"fiscal version of QE\" coming?</b></p><p>Wall Street analysts believe that on the one hand, Treasury Bond repurchases can improve the liquidity level of the long-term bond market, release traders' balance sheets and help them buy or expand further.</p><p>On the other hand, issuing short-term debt will push up overnight interest rates, which may help consume RRP faster and raise the level of reserves.</p><p>The fall in long-term interest rates and the rise in reserve levels will not only save the U.S. bond market, but also be a shot in the arm for risky assets. Just imagine how U.S. stocks will perform in the current extreme state where short liquidation will cause the S&P index to skyrocket?</p><p><b>This can't help but make Wall Street look forward to the \"fiscal version of QE\".</b></p><p>So, is Treasury Bond's repurchase a bad move from the left hand to the right hand, or a coup to kill two birds with one stone?</p><p><b>Is the U.S. bond market one step away from collapse?</b></p><p>Since October, the British Treasury Bond has taken the lead in suffering a major sell-off, forcing the Bank of England to carry out emergency purchase operations, while the sharp drop in the yen has prompted Japanese authorities to repeatedly intervene in the foreign exchange market.</p><p>Although the US $23.7 trillion bond market is the largest and most liquid fixed income market in the world, many market traders and economists have begun to worry that this market may become the next round of crisis. The source of the crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3827a4f6e82649b3a56c4c2e323fc09f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Credit: MacroMicro</p><p><b>The recent measure of U.S. Treasury Bond liquidity indicator (MOVE) has reached its worst level during the epidemic market failure period.</b>At the time, the Federal Reserve injected $1 trillion a day to shore up the bond market and launched a $120 billion quantitative easing policy to shorten the disastrous dollar short squeeze. Now, however, the biggest buyer in Treasury Bond's market is making a big shrinking balance sheet, stripping Treasury Bond from its balance sheet at a rate of $60 billion a month.<b>The Federal Reserve, which turned the tide at that time, is now pushing the bond market to death.</b></p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan, the largest overseas buyer in the U.S. bond market, had to choose to sell U.S. assets sharply to maintain exchange rate stability in order to stabilize the exchange rate. According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, US $34.5 billion in U.S. debt was sold in August, and it is expected that the selling volume in September may exceed US $50 billion. In addition, concerns about UK pension margin and tail risks in the bond market have also intensified the sell-off of related assets.</p><p>The sharp sequential decline in bonds has caused many traditional large players, such as U.S. commercial banks and life insurance companies, to avoid the debt market. Large financial institutions, because the so-called supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) requires banks to set aside capital for such businesses, have also been reluctant to act as market makers.</p><p>On the supply side, the outstanding Treasury Bond of the United States have increased by 7 trillion since the end of 2019.</p><p>Bank of America strategists Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel and others said,<b>With just one shock, the U.S. bond market may face operational challenges from \"large-scale forced selling or external emergencies.\"</b>。</p><p>This made U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen say more than once,<b>\"We are concerned about the lack of sufficient liquidity in the (Treasury Bond) market.\"</b></p><p><b>What is the \"fiscal version of QE\"?</b></p><p>The ongoing liquidity crisis means the bond market is on the brink of collapse.</p><p>Similar to the Bank of England, this was supposed to be saved by the Fed through bond purchases (QE). But in order to remain as neutral as possible, the Fed has to at least take some twisting operation (sell short and buy long). However, the Federal Reserve is already in a shrinking balance sheet, and Operation Twist may face short-term debt shortage.</p><p>The bigger problem is that in the current situation of hot inflation and out-of-control stickiness, even if the Fed takes neutral purchase intervention measures, it will encounter public and political anger. They would equate it with a capitulation by the Fed on tightening, with potentially unpredictable consequences for inflation governance and the Fed's credibility.</p><p><b>Since the Federal Reserve can't QE, the Ministry of Finance came forward to QE.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69764b78fa3d67ff7001acecdf2823d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In fact, as early as August, in the minutes of the meeting of the Finance and Financing Committee, it was mentioned: \"The Committee introduced the desirability of regular repurchase operations as a debt management tool.\"</p><p>Earlier this month, the U.S. Treasury Department asked U.S. Treasury Bond primary dealers for their views on the pros and cons of the buyback program. In the second half of the year, Treasury Secretary Yellen hinted at the possibility of buying back some U.S. government bonds.</p><p><b>So what is \"fiscal version of QE\"?</b></p><p><b>That is, the Ministry of Finance puts liquidity into the market by buying back Treasury Bond (redeeming undue debt).</b>In fact, as a debt management tool, Treasury Bond repurchase has been widely used in European and American countries.</p><p>In 1807, the United States first used bond repurchase to redeem unexpired Treasury Bond in advance. In 2000, faced with the first consecutive fiscal surplus in 40 years ($69 billion in 1998, $123 billion in 1999 and $237 billion in 2000), the U.S. Treasury Department decided to re-purchase bonds.</p><p><b>For the Ministry of Finance, the repurchase of Treasury Bond has the following advantages:</b></p><p>1.<b>Improve liquidity of benchmark bonds and reduce interest costs for governments</b>, improve the efficiency of the capital market. Generally speaking, the yield difference between high-liquidity benchmark bonds and old bonds with poor liquidity is very obvious. The redemption operation can improve efficiency by buying back old bonds with illiquid liquidity,<b>Especially on the premise of fiscal surplus.</b></p><p>2. By repaying bonds with longer maturities,<b>Debt repurchases help to rationally adjust the target term structure,</b>Prevent the increase of the average maturity of debt and reduce the cost of financing. For example, the average maturity of U.S. debt has increased from about 60 months in 1980 to about 70 months during the epidemic, and large-scale bond issuance during the epidemic once again lengthened the average maturity of U.S. debt to 74 months. Longer maturities represent higher financing costs, which will increase the government's debt burden in the long run.</p><p>3. Smooth the peak of bond issuance and make more effective use of excess cash during periods of fiscal surplus.</p><p>At the beginning of 2000, the United States planned to buy back $30 billion of Treasury Bond within the year, make a judgment on the market response according to the operation, and adjust the prompt period, scale, time and operation rules accordingly. And stipulates the terms of the repurchase, including: announcing the bonds that meet the maturity period and the total number of repurchased; Number of tenders per bond, maximum acceptable price, remaining privately held bond balance, etc. The operation is conducted through the Open Market Operating System of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.</p><p><b>Financial move, killing two birds with one stone?</b></p><p>From the above, we can summarize the three characteristics of Treasury Bond repurchase: 1) tools in the period of fiscal surplus; 2) Improve liquidity; 3) Reduce financing costs.</p><p>Judging from the fact that repurchase was originally mainly used as an adjustment tool in the context of fiscal surplus, it is not in line with the current large fiscal deficit. Therefore, its purpose clearly points to the current liquidity problem in the U.S. bond market.</p><p>Skyrm, a repurchase expert at Curvature, believes that in terms of role,<b>1) The \"fiscal version of QE\" provides liquidity by purchasing less liquid bonds.</b>The Treasury's purchase of old cheap securities that have been eliminated by the market improves the balance sheets of market traders and gives them the ability to expand further. The repurchase announcement can even further drive market demand. For example, as 20-year bonds are considered to benefit the most from the buyback program, this variety rebounded after the release of the survey.</p><p><b>2) \"Fiscal version of QE\", there are theoretically three ways of financing: a book cash; b Short-term Treasury Bond financing; c Duration neutral financing</b>, (i.e. any government securities repurchased by the Treasury will be replaced with debt of the same maturity to keep the weighted average maturity of the outstanding debt constant.) In the context of the current non-fiscal surplus and longer debt duration, the probability of b is higher. (Of course, this is still the focus of concern of Wall Street analysts at present, and we still need to wait for the clarification of the Ministry of Finance.)</p><p><b>If short-term Treasury Bond financing is adopted, since short-term debt is directly used as general collateral in the current repo market, the increased supply of short-term debt will push up overnight interest rates and may help to consume reverse repo usage (RRP) faster.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ba830b87f2a32338ee13c2efe15b0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve's assets and liabilities have expanded by 2.25 times, resulting in a flood of liquidity within the U.S. financial system, and the use of RRP tools (which can be understood as a reservoir of idle funds from non-bank institutions) has risen to more than 2 trillion.</p><p>But since the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, RRP has become a problem. It turns out that the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet hopes that the reduction of funds in the financial system will first flow out of RRP, which can provide a buffer for reserves for at least 15 months. But so far the opposite has been true: bank deposits are the first to fall, which has caused banks' reserves to fall faster than expected.</p><p><b>As long as the RRP remains high, the shrinking balance sheet will continue to consume the reserve level, which increases the instability of the financial system and the large fluctuation of short-term interest rates, which is the most unfavorable situation for risky assets and the reason for the early end of the last round of QT.</b></p><p>However, if the supply of short-term debt can expel liquidity from RRP, RRP may once again act as a reserve cushion, which is of great significance to the stability of the financial system and risky assets.</p><p>According to calculations by Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities,<b>The intervention of the \"fiscal version of QE\" may even trigger the forced liquidation of short positions in short-term Treasury Bond and stock trend strategies. In the current market where short positions are crowded and long positions are insufficient, even if it is not the previous surge in short positions covering, it may form an obvious rebound.</b></p><p><b>If this is the case, the \"fiscal version of QE\" both stabilizes liquidity and reserves. It can not only save U.S. debt, but also save U.S. stocks. It has to be said that it is a coup to kill two birds with one stone.</b></p><p>However, judging from the timing of implementation. Earlier, the market consensus expected that Treasury Bond buybacks would be launched by the end of the first quarter of 2023, when Treasury Bond issuances are expected to be larger. But if there are \"serious problems with the operation of Treasury Bond's market\", the timing may be brought forward.</p><p>Of course, there are still big doubts about the scale of the \"fiscal version of QE\", the extent to which liquidity can be stabilized, and the runoff of the impact on RRP mentioned above. Barclays' Abate pointed out that although the Ministry of Finance is likely to issue additional short-term debt financing, this does not mean that it can \"distort\" the yield curve or withdraw liquidity from RRPs.</p><p>Its only definite positive significance is that,<b>It reduces the long-tail risk of U.S. bond market failure and promotes long-term interest rates to return to equilibrium levels.</b>Because even though the liquidity of the U.S. bond market has deteriorated considerably, a collapse is still not the basic scenario. We need to pay more attention to the more detailed disclosure of the Ministry of Finance on Treasury Bond repurchase, so as to make a more appropriate judgment. Expect more discussion on this in the refinancing document released by the U.S. Treasury Department on Nov. 2.</p><p><b>Without looking forward to Powell's release, Wall Street turned to look forward to the \"fiscal version of QE\" more and more.</b></p><p>But after all, this requires the Ministry of Finance to expand its balance sheet, which is also contrary to the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. For European and American financial markets, which are deeply hungry for QE, QE may be able to solve the immediate problems, but QE will also bring more problems. So is the \"fiscal version of QE\" a bad move for left-handed and right-handed, or can it really kill two birds with one stone? We'll wait and see.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street's new savior: \"Fiscal version of QE\" coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street's new savior: \"Fiscal version of QE\" coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-30 07:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is it the left hand to the right hand, or does it kill two birds with one stone? Since September, U.S. debt liquidity indicators have reached their worst level during the epidemic. The market had expected the Federal Reserve to follow the example of the Bank of England and stand up to save the collapsing U.S. debt.</p><p><b>But unexpectedly, the Federal Reserve didn't come forward, and it was the U.S. Treasury Department that came forward!</b></p><p>In October, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen admitted more than once that she was worried about the $24 trillion market, and couldn't wait to hint that the Treasury would take actions to protect liquidity, such as buying back U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p><b>Is \"fiscal version of QE\" coming?</b></p><p>Wall Street analysts believe that on the one hand, Treasury Bond repurchases can improve the liquidity level of the long-term bond market, release traders' balance sheets and help them buy or expand further.</p><p>On the other hand, issuing short-term debt will push up overnight interest rates, which may help consume RRP faster and raise the level of reserves.</p><p>The fall in long-term interest rates and the rise in reserve levels will not only save the U.S. bond market, but also be a shot in the arm for risky assets. Just imagine how U.S. stocks will perform in the current extreme state where short liquidation will cause the S&P index to skyrocket?</p><p><b>This can't help but make Wall Street look forward to the \"fiscal version of QE\".</b></p><p>So, is Treasury Bond's repurchase a bad move from the left hand to the right hand, or a coup to kill two birds with one stone?</p><p><b>Is the U.S. bond market one step away from collapse?</b></p><p>Since October, the British Treasury Bond has taken the lead in suffering a major sell-off, forcing the Bank of England to carry out emergency purchase operations, while the sharp drop in the yen has prompted Japanese authorities to repeatedly intervene in the foreign exchange market.</p><p>Although the US $23.7 trillion bond market is the largest and most liquid fixed income market in the world, many market traders and economists have begun to worry that this market may become the next round of crisis. The source of the crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3827a4f6e82649b3a56c4c2e323fc09f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Credit: MacroMicro</p><p><b>The recent measure of U.S. Treasury Bond liquidity indicator (MOVE) has reached its worst level during the epidemic market failure period.</b>At the time, the Federal Reserve injected $1 trillion a day to shore up the bond market and launched a $120 billion quantitative easing policy to shorten the disastrous dollar short squeeze. Now, however, the biggest buyer in Treasury Bond's market is making a big shrinking balance sheet, stripping Treasury Bond from its balance sheet at a rate of $60 billion a month.<b>The Federal Reserve, which turned the tide at that time, is now pushing the bond market to death.</b></p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan, the largest overseas buyer in the U.S. bond market, had to choose to sell U.S. assets sharply to maintain exchange rate stability in order to stabilize the exchange rate. According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, US $34.5 billion in U.S. debt was sold in August, and it is expected that the selling volume in September may exceed US $50 billion. In addition, concerns about UK pension margin and tail risks in the bond market have also intensified the sell-off of related assets.</p><p>The sharp sequential decline in bonds has caused many traditional large players, such as U.S. commercial banks and life insurance companies, to avoid the debt market. Large financial institutions, because the so-called supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) requires banks to set aside capital for such businesses, have also been reluctant to act as market makers.</p><p>On the supply side, the outstanding Treasury Bond of the United States have increased by 7 trillion since the end of 2019.</p><p>Bank of America strategists Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel and others said,<b>With just one shock, the U.S. bond market may face operational challenges from \"large-scale forced selling or external emergencies.\"</b>。</p><p>This made U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen say more than once,<b>\"We are concerned about the lack of sufficient liquidity in the (Treasury Bond) market.\"</b></p><p><b>What is the \"fiscal version of QE\"?</b></p><p>The ongoing liquidity crisis means the bond market is on the brink of collapse.</p><p>Similar to the Bank of England, this was supposed to be saved by the Fed through bond purchases (QE). But in order to remain as neutral as possible, the Fed has to at least take some twisting operation (sell short and buy long). However, the Federal Reserve is already in a shrinking balance sheet, and Operation Twist may face short-term debt shortage.</p><p>The bigger problem is that in the current situation of hot inflation and out-of-control stickiness, even if the Fed takes neutral purchase intervention measures, it will encounter public and political anger. They would equate it with a capitulation by the Fed on tightening, with potentially unpredictable consequences for inflation governance and the Fed's credibility.</p><p><b>Since the Federal Reserve can't QE, the Ministry of Finance came forward to QE.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69764b78fa3d67ff7001acecdf2823d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In fact, as early as August, in the minutes of the meeting of the Finance and Financing Committee, it was mentioned: \"The Committee introduced the desirability of regular repurchase operations as a debt management tool.\"</p><p>Earlier this month, the U.S. Treasury Department asked U.S. Treasury Bond primary dealers for their views on the pros and cons of the buyback program. In the second half of the year, Treasury Secretary Yellen hinted at the possibility of buying back some U.S. government bonds.</p><p><b>So what is \"fiscal version of QE\"?</b></p><p><b>That is, the Ministry of Finance puts liquidity into the market by buying back Treasury Bond (redeeming undue debt).</b>In fact, as a debt management tool, Treasury Bond repurchase has been widely used in European and American countries.</p><p>In 1807, the United States first used bond repurchase to redeem unexpired Treasury Bond in advance. In 2000, faced with the first consecutive fiscal surplus in 40 years ($69 billion in 1998, $123 billion in 1999 and $237 billion in 2000), the U.S. Treasury Department decided to re-purchase bonds.</p><p><b>For the Ministry of Finance, the repurchase of Treasury Bond has the following advantages:</b></p><p>1.<b>Improve liquidity of benchmark bonds and reduce interest costs for governments</b>, improve the efficiency of the capital market. Generally speaking, the yield difference between high-liquidity benchmark bonds and old bonds with poor liquidity is very obvious. The redemption operation can improve efficiency by buying back old bonds with illiquid liquidity,<b>Especially on the premise of fiscal surplus.</b></p><p>2. By repaying bonds with longer maturities,<b>Debt repurchases help to rationally adjust the target term structure,</b>Prevent the increase of the average maturity of debt and reduce the cost of financing. For example, the average maturity of U.S. debt has increased from about 60 months in 1980 to about 70 months during the epidemic, and large-scale bond issuance during the epidemic once again lengthened the average maturity of U.S. debt to 74 months. Longer maturities represent higher financing costs, which will increase the government's debt burden in the long run.</p><p>3. Smooth the peak of bond issuance and make more effective use of excess cash during periods of fiscal surplus.</p><p>At the beginning of 2000, the United States planned to buy back $30 billion of Treasury Bond within the year, make a judgment on the market response according to the operation, and adjust the prompt period, scale, time and operation rules accordingly. And stipulates the terms of the repurchase, including: announcing the bonds that meet the maturity period and the total number of repurchased; Number of tenders per bond, maximum acceptable price, remaining privately held bond balance, etc. The operation is conducted through the Open Market Operating System of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.</p><p><b>Financial move, killing two birds with one stone?</b></p><p>From the above, we can summarize the three characteristics of Treasury Bond repurchase: 1) tools in the period of fiscal surplus; 2) Improve liquidity; 3) Reduce financing costs.</p><p>Judging from the fact that repurchase was originally mainly used as an adjustment tool in the context of fiscal surplus, it is not in line with the current large fiscal deficit. Therefore, its purpose clearly points to the current liquidity problem in the U.S. bond market.</p><p>Skyrm, a repurchase expert at Curvature, believes that in terms of role,<b>1) The \"fiscal version of QE\" provides liquidity by purchasing less liquid bonds.</b>The Treasury's purchase of old cheap securities that have been eliminated by the market improves the balance sheets of market traders and gives them the ability to expand further. The repurchase announcement can even further drive market demand. For example, as 20-year bonds are considered to benefit the most from the buyback program, this variety rebounded after the release of the survey.</p><p><b>2) \"Fiscal version of QE\", there are theoretically three ways of financing: a book cash; b Short-term Treasury Bond financing; c Duration neutral financing</b>, (i.e. any government securities repurchased by the Treasury will be replaced with debt of the same maturity to keep the weighted average maturity of the outstanding debt constant.) In the context of the current non-fiscal surplus and longer debt duration, the probability of b is higher. (Of course, this is still the focus of concern of Wall Street analysts at present, and we still need to wait for the clarification of the Ministry of Finance.)</p><p><b>If short-term Treasury Bond financing is adopted, since short-term debt is directly used as general collateral in the current repo market, the increased supply of short-term debt will push up overnight interest rates and may help to consume reverse repo usage (RRP) faster.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ba830b87f2a32338ee13c2efe15b0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve's assets and liabilities have expanded by 2.25 times, resulting in a flood of liquidity within the U.S. financial system, and the use of RRP tools (which can be understood as a reservoir of idle funds from non-bank institutions) has risen to more than 2 trillion.</p><p>But since the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, RRP has become a problem. It turns out that the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet hopes that the reduction of funds in the financial system will first flow out of RRP, which can provide a buffer for reserves for at least 15 months. But so far the opposite has been true: bank deposits are the first to fall, which has caused banks' reserves to fall faster than expected.</p><p><b>As long as the RRP remains high, the shrinking balance sheet will continue to consume the reserve level, which increases the instability of the financial system and the large fluctuation of short-term interest rates, which is the most unfavorable situation for risky assets and the reason for the early end of the last round of QT.</b></p><p>However, if the supply of short-term debt can expel liquidity from RRP, RRP may once again act as a reserve cushion, which is of great significance to the stability of the financial system and risky assets.</p><p>According to calculations by Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities,<b>The intervention of the \"fiscal version of QE\" may even trigger the forced liquidation of short positions in short-term Treasury Bond and stock trend strategies. In the current market where short positions are crowded and long positions are insufficient, even if it is not the previous surge in short positions covering, it may form an obvious rebound.</b></p><p><b>If this is the case, the \"fiscal version of QE\" both stabilizes liquidity and reserves. It can not only save U.S. debt, but also save U.S. stocks. It has to be said that it is a coup to kill two birds with one stone.</b></p><p>However, judging from the timing of implementation. Earlier, the market consensus expected that Treasury Bond buybacks would be launched by the end of the first quarter of 2023, when Treasury Bond issuances are expected to be larger. But if there are \"serious problems with the operation of Treasury Bond's market\", the timing may be brought forward.</p><p>Of course, there are still big doubts about the scale of the \"fiscal version of QE\", the extent to which liquidity can be stabilized, and the runoff of the impact on RRP mentioned above. Barclays' Abate pointed out that although the Ministry of Finance is likely to issue additional short-term debt financing, this does not mean that it can \"distort\" the yield curve or withdraw liquidity from RRPs.</p><p>Its only definite positive significance is that,<b>It reduces the long-tail risk of U.S. bond market failure and promotes long-term interest rates to return to equilibrium levels.</b>Because even though the liquidity of the U.S. bond market has deteriorated considerably, a collapse is still not the basic scenario. We need to pay more attention to the more detailed disclosure of the Ministry of Finance on Treasury Bond repurchase, so as to make a more appropriate judgment. Expect more discussion on this in the refinancing document released by the U.S. Treasury Department on Nov. 2.</p><p><b>Without looking forward to Powell's release, Wall Street turned to look forward to the \"fiscal version of QE\" more and more.</b></p><p>But after all, this requires the Ministry of Finance to expand its balance sheet, which is also contrary to the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. For European and American financial markets, which are deeply hungry for QE, QE may be able to solve the immediate problems, but QE will also bring more problems. So is the \"fiscal version of QE\" a bad move for left-handed and right-handed, or can it really kill two birds with one stone? We'll wait and see.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44af88ec30b2edeef57a4024f2321d7b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103409968","content_text":"是左手倒右手，还是一石二鸟？9月以来，美债流动性指标达到了疫情时期的最差水平。市场原本期待美联储能效仿英国央行，站出来挽救正走向崩溃的美债。但出乎意料的是，美联储没有站出来，站出来的是美国财政部！10月美财长耶伦已经不止一次承认对这个24万亿美元的市场感到担忧，并迫不及待的暗示财政部将采取行动来呵护流动性，比如：回购美国国债。“财政版QE”要来了？华尔街分析师们认为，国债回购一方面能改善长期债券市场的流动性水平，释放交易商的资产负债表，帮助它们进一步购买或扩张。另一方面，发行短债将推高隔夜利率，可能有助于更快地消耗RRP，抬升准备金的水平。长端利率回落和准备金水平上升，不仅能拯救了美债市场，对风险资产也是一剂强心针。试想一下，在当前空头平仓都会导致标普指数暴涨的极端状态下，美股会如何表现？这不禁让华尔街对“财政版QE”期待的两眼放光。那么国债回购，到底是左手倒右手的损招，还是一石二鸟的妙招呢？美债市场离崩溃一步之遥？10月以来英国国债已经率先遭遇了重大抛售，迫使英国央行实施紧急购买操作，而日元的大跌则促使日本当局反复在外汇市场实施干预。尽管规模高达23.7万亿美元的美债市场是世界上规模最大、流动性最强的固定收益市场，但不少市场交易员和经济学家也已经开始担心，这一市场可能成为下一轮危机的源头。图片来源：MacroMicro近期衡量美国国债流动性指标（MOVE），已经达到了疫情市场失灵时期的最差水平。当时，美联储每天注入1万亿美元以支撑债券市场，并推出1200亿美元的量化宽松政策以缩短灾难性的美元空头挤压。然而现在这个国债市场的最大买家正在大幅缩表，以每个月600亿美元的速度从资产负债表中剥离国债。届时力挽狂澜的美联储，如今却在把债市往死里推。于此同时，美债市场最大的海外买家——日本央行，为了稳定汇率不得不选择大幅抛售美国资产来维护汇率稳定。根据美国财政部数据8月已经抛售345亿美元美债，预计9月的抛售量可能超过500亿美元。另外英国养老保证金和债市尾部风险的担忧也加剧了相关资产的抛售。债券连续大幅下跌，使得美国商业银行和人寿保险公司等许多传统大型参与者纷纷回避债务市场。大型金融机构，因为所谓的补充杠杆率（SLR）要求银行为此类业务留出资本金，也一直不太愿意充当做市商。而供给方面，美国未偿国债自2019年底至今已经增加7万亿。美银策略师Mark Cabana、Ralph Axel等表示，只需一次冲击，美债市场可能就会面临来自“大规模强制抛售或外部突发事件”的运行层面挑战。这让也美国财长耶伦不止一次的表示，“我们担心(国债)市场缺乏足够的流动性”。什么是“财政版QE”？持续的流动性危机意味着债券市场正走向崩溃的边缘。与英国央行类似，这本该由美联储通过购买债券（QE）来挽救。但为了尽可能保持中性，美联储至少要采取一定的扭曲操作（卖短买长）。只是，美联储已经在缩表了，扭曲操作可能面临短债不足。而更大的问题是，在当前通胀炙手可热、粘性失控的情况下，即便美联储采取中性购买的干预措施，都会遭遇民众和政界的愤怒。他们会将其等同于美联储在紧缩政策上的投降，并可能对通胀治理和美联储信誉造成不可预计的后果。既然美联储没办法QE，于是，财政部站出来QE了。其实早在8月的财政财政融资委员会会议纪要中，就提到：“委员会介绍了定期回购操作作为债务管理工具的可取性。”本月早些时候，美国财政部询问了美国国债一级交易商对回购计划的优缺点的看法。下旬，财政部长耶伦暗示，有可能回购某些美国政府债券。那么什么是“财政版QE”？就是财政部通过回购国债（赎回未到期的债务）向市场投放流动性。实际上，国债回购曾作为一种债务管理工具，在欧美国家得到广泛应用。美国最早于1807年运用债券购回手段提前赎回未到期的国债。2000年面对40年来首次连续出现的财政盈余（1998年盈余690亿美元，1999年1230亿美元，2000年2370亿美元），美国财政部决定重新进行债券购回操作。对财政部而言，回购国债具有下述优势：1.提高基准债券的流动性，减少政府的利息成本，提高资本市场的效率。一般而言高流动性基准债券和流动性较差的老债两者收益率差异非常明显。赎回操作可通过购回流动性差的旧债券来提高效率，特别是在财政盈余的前提下。2.通过偿付到期期限较长的债券，债务购回有助于合理调整目标期限结构，预防债务平均期限的提高，并降低融资成本。例如美国债务平均期限已经从1980年的60个月左右提高到疫情期间的70个月左右，而疫情期间大规模发债再度拉长了美国债务的平均期限到74个月。越长的期限代表越高的融资成本，从长期看，这会增加政府的债务负担。3. 平滑债券发行高峰，以及在财政盈余时期，更有效地利用超额现金。美国在2000年初计划在年内购回300亿美元的国债，根据操作对市场反映做出判断，相应调整提示期间、规模、时间和操作规律。并规定了回购的条款，包括：公布到期期限符合条件的债券和购回的总数量；每个债券的招标数量、最高可接受价格、剩余的私人持有的债券余额等。该操作通过纽约联邦储备银行的公开市场操作系统进行。财政出手，一石二鸟？从以上我们可以总结出国债回购的三大特征：1）财政盈余时期的工具；2）提高流动性；3）降低融资成本。从回购原本主要是用于财政盈余背景下的调节工具，目前大额的财政赤字来看并不符合。所以其目的很清楚的指向当前美债市场的流动性问题。Curvature的回购专家Skyrm认为，从作用来看，1）“财政版QE”通过购买流动性较低的债券提供流动性。财政部买入被市场淘汰的旧廉价证券，改善了市场交易商的资产负债表，使其有进一步扩张的能力。回购公告甚至能进一步带动市场需求。例如，由于20年期债券被认为将回购计划中获益最多，该品种在调查发布后出现反弹。2）“财政版QE”，理论上有三种方式融资：a账面现金；b短期国债融资；c久期中性融资，（即财政部回购的任何政府证券都将被相同期限的债务所取代，以保持未偿债务的加权平均期限不变。）在当前非财政盈余和债务久期较长的背景下，b的概率更高。（当然这一点目前还是华尔街分析师关心的焦点，还需要等财政部的明确。）如果采取短期国债融资，由于目前回购市场中短债直接作为一般抵押品，增加的短债供应将推高隔夜利率，并可能有助于更快地消耗逆回购用量（RRP）。2020年疫情爆发以来，美联储的资产负债扩张2.25倍，导致美国金融体系内部流动性泛滥，RRP工具（可理解为非银机构闲置资金的蓄水池）用量上升至2万亿以上。但自美联储缩表以来，RRP却成了一个问题。原来美联储缩表所希望金融系统中的资金减少，是首先从RRP中流出，其至少能为准备金提供15个月左右的缓冲。但到目前为止情况恰恰相反：银行存款反而率先下降，这导致银行的准备金下降速度快于预期。只要RRP维持高位，缩表将继续消耗准备金水平，这增加了金融系统的不稳定性和短端利率的大幅波动，对风险资产来说是最不利的情况，也是上轮QT提前结束的原因。但如果短债供应能将流动性从RRP中驱逐出来，RRP可能将再度起到准备金缓冲垫的作用，这对金融系统稳定和风险资产有着极大的意义。按照野村证券Charlie McElligott的测算，“财政版QE”的干预甚至可能触发短期国债和股票趋势策略空头的强制平仓。这在当前空头拥挤和多头不足的市场中，即便不是之前空头补仓的暴涨，也可能形成一轮明显的反弹。如果真是这样的话，“财政版QE”既平稳了流动性，又平稳了准备金。既能拯救了美债，也能拯救美股，不得不说是一石二鸟的妙招。不过从实施时机来看。早些时候，市场一致预期国债回购将在2023年的一季度末，即预期国债发行规模较大的时候推出。但如果出现“严重的国债市场运作问题”，时机可能会提前。当然“财政版QE”到底能有多少规模，多大程度平稳流动性，以及上述提及对RRP影响的径流，事实上目前依然存在较大的质疑。巴克莱的Abate就指出，虽然财政部很可能会通过发行额外的短债融资，但这并不意味着能“扭曲”收益率曲线或从RRP中提取流动性。其唯一比较确定的积极意义在于，降低了美债市场失灵的长尾风险，促使长端利率回归均衡水平。因为即使美债市场的流动性已经相当恶化，但崩溃依然不是基本假设情景。我们需要进一步关注财政部在国债回购上更多的细节披露，从而做出更合适的判断。预计美国财政部11月2日发布的再融资文件将对此有更多讨论。盼不到鲍威尔的松口，华尔街转而对“财政版QE”越来越期待。但是这毕竟需要财政部来扩表，这也和美联储的缩表相违背。对于深陷QE饥渴症的欧美金融市场来说，QE或许能解决眼前的问题，但QE也会带来更多问题。所以“财政版QE”是左手倒右手的损招，还是真能一石二鸟？我们拭目以待。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907060364,"gmtCreate":1660108390060,"gmtModify":1703478031529,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092786756661910","authorIdStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meaning? Good or bad news?","listText":"Meaning? Good or bad news?","text":"Meaning? Good or bad news?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9907060364","repostId":"2258426671","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904607454,"gmtCreate":1660028898881,"gmtModify":1703477149049,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092786756661910","authorIdStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904607454","repostId":"1106501795","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106501795","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660127930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106501795?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-10 18:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme-Stock Frenzy Returns, Baffling Wall Street’s \"Smart Guys\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106501795","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Bed Bath & Beyond nearly triples as retail traders pounceHeavily-shorted stocks, de-SPACs are part o","content":"<div>\n<p>Bed Bath & Beyond nearly triples as retail traders pounceHeavily-shorted stocks, de-SPACs are part of broader reboundPhotographer: Luke Sharrett/BloombergRetail traders who lurk in forums like Reddit’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/bed-bath-beyond-jump-brings-some-meme-frenzy-to-broad-rally?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme-Stock Frenzy Returns, Baffling Wall Street’s \"Smart Guys\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme-Stock Frenzy Returns, Baffling Wall Street’s \"Smart Guys\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-10 18:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/bed-bath-beyond-jump-brings-some-meme-frenzy-to-broad-rally?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bed Bath & Beyond nearly triples as retail traders pounceHeavily-shorted stocks, de-SPACs are part of broader reboundPhotographer: Luke Sharrett/BloombergRetail traders who lurk in forums like Reddit’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/bed-bath-beyond-jump-brings-some-meme-frenzy-to-broad-rally?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","RENT":"Rent the Runway, Inc.","AMTD":"Amtd Idea","HKD":"尚乘数科","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","EXPR":"Express, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MEGL":"智富融资","AMC":"AMC院线",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GME":"游戏驿站","W":"Wayfair"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/bed-bath-beyond-jump-brings-some-meme-frenzy-to-broad-rally?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106501795","content_text":"Bed Bath & Beyond nearly triples as retail traders pounceHeavily-shorted stocks, de-SPACs are part of broader reboundPhotographer: Luke Sharrett/BloombergRetail traders who lurk in forums like Reddit’s WallStreetBets are back to betting against Wall Street pros and the Federal Reserve as rallies for meme stocks like Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. show shades of last year’s mania.The home-good retailer nearly tripled at one point during its nine-day winning streak while the movie-theater firm capped a 65% rally of its own as speculative pockets of the stock market surge. The pair have powered a basket of 37 meme stocks tracked by Bloomberg higher by 10% over the past week while the most-hated stocks tracked by a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket is up roughly 17% over the same period.The resurgence of more speculative areas of the market is likely fueled in part by individual traders willingness to jump on riskier trades and bet against hedge funds. A rally in tech shares and other growth stocks at one point on Monday pushed the Nasdaq 100 Index up 20% from a June low amid alarms from some on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve is set on fighting inflation regardless of the pain for the stock market.The “smart guys” are “confused, baffled and fighting short positions from a position of weakness in terms of momentum and firepower,” said Mark Taylor, a sales trader at Mirabaud Securities. “The lack of real understanding of why a sudden resurrection of the meme-entum bid could lead to some nefarious speculation about things being manipulated but what would be as much sour grapes speculation as anything real.”Bed Bath & Beyond’s taking of the meme stock baton resulted in a 40% rally Monday as a record 120.5 million shares changed hands with the stock being the second-most bought asset on Fidelity’s platform. AMC Entertainment was among the five most purchased stocks on the platform and saw trading volume triple what’s been normal over the past month. Both company tickers, along with GameStop Corp., were the most mentioned on Reddit’s WallStreetBets platform.A basket of meme stocks tracked by Bloomberg rose 3.7%, extending a six-day rally of its own. Among the group’s top performers were GameStop and Express Inc. Newly-public Magic Empire Global Ltd., a little-known Hong Kong-based financial services firm, extended a 2,825% two-day surge since going public, attracting some retail attention.“These meme stock rallies that are emerging will only last if US stocks broadly continue to head higher,” said Ed Moya, senior market strategist at Oanda. “After AMTD Digital reminded the WallStreetBets crowd of the potential skyrocketing moves, many retail traders are scanning their favorite plays and are looking to get back in.”The rapid rise and subsequent fall for AMTD Digital Inc. both puzzled and captivated the markets. The stock posted an eye-popping surge of more than 32,000% at one point before erasing a chunk of gains.Heavily-shorted stocks like Wayfair Inc., Rent the Runway Inc., and those that went public via blank-check merger including 23andMe Holding Co. saw double-digit rallies at one point as investors braced for volatility.Short SqueezeShort covering from institutional investors may have boosted the recent surge, according to some on Wall Street. More than half of Bed Bath & Beyond shares available for trading are currently sold short, according to data from analytics firm S3 Partners, while AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Wayfair short interest each sit around 20%.An index tracking hedge funds’ high-conviction bets rose 1.8% last week, trailing those favored by retail investors by 2.7 percentage points, the most since March, data compiled by Goldman Sachs show. While still early into August, the firm’s basket of retail favorites is on track for the best month since Jan. 2021 relative to firms favored by hedge funds. The retail basket carries names including Delta Airlines Inc., which just clocked the longest streak of weekly gains since 2020.“Retail traders have to move quickly, because one headline can change the entire trajectory of the stock market,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Retail traders are daring the Fed and they’re daring some professional investors, and they’re doing well so far. It’s dicey because it can go in the other direction really fast.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"GME":0.9,"AMTD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HKD":0.9,"MEGL":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"W":0.9,"EXPR":0.9,"RENT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902682718,"gmtCreate":1659687232139,"gmtModify":1704874329956,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092786756661910","authorIdStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice start and hope will more than that&nbsp;","listText":"Nice start and hope will more than that&nbsp;","text":"Nice start and hope will more than that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902682718","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906881047,"gmtCreate":1659515198192,"gmtModify":1705981174930,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092786756661910","authorIdStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I will keep for 1 to 2 days","listText":"I will keep for 1 to 2 days","text":"I will keep for 1 to 2 days","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906881047","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908746186,"gmtCreate":1659447448847,"gmtModify":1705980429291,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092786756661910","authorIdStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMTD\">$AMTD International(AMTD)$</a>suspension!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMTD\">$AMTD International(AMTD)$</a>suspension!!!","text":"$AMTD International(AMTD)$suspension!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908746186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903651044,"gmtCreate":1659022426088,"gmtModify":1676536245478,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092786756661910","authorIdStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a>will rebound after 1pm?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a>will rebound after 1pm?","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$will rebound after 1pm?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903651044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903602346,"gmtCreate":1659014023985,"gmtModify":1676536243781,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092786756661910","authorIdStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please. Thanks dudes","listText":"Like please. Thanks dudes","text":"Like please. Thanks dudes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903602346","repostId":"1153550324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153550324","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659011517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153550324?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 20:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153550324","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely acc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-28 20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153550324","content_text":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903608002,"gmtCreate":1659013663006,"gmtModify":1676536243726,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092786756661910","authorIdStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wait for market open and see the reaction, better buckle up your seat belt.&nbsp;","listText":"Wait for market open and see the reaction, better buckle up your seat belt.&nbsp;","text":"Wait for market open and see the reaction, better buckle up your seat belt.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903608002","repostId":"1153550324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153550324","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659011517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153550324?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 20:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153550324","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely acc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-28 20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153550324","content_text":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903878430,"gmtCreate":1659011905520,"gmtModify":1676536243523,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092786756661910","authorIdStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Got to wait for awhile... will sink again","listText":"Got to wait for awhile... will sink again","text":"Got to wait for awhile... will sink again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903878430","repostId":"1153550324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153550324","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659011517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153550324?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 20:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153550324","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely acc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-28 20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153550324","content_text":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903859391,"gmtCreate":1659008028513,"gmtModify":1676536242958,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092786756661910","authorIdStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903859391","repostId":"1107174113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107174113","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658990914,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107174113?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Q2 GDP Come Today. The Recession Debate Won’t End","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107174113","media":"Barrons","summary":"The U.S. economy likely grew slightly in the second quarter as consumer spending slowed amid rising ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy likely grew slightly in the second quarter as consumer spending slowed amid rising prices and a slump in new home sales. Don’t expect the debate over recession to fade, however.</p><p>Economists expect gross-domestic product grew at a 0.3% annual rate between March and June, consensus expectations show, a sluggish pace that nonetheless suggests a turnaround from the first quarter’s 1.6% decline. But economists’ estimates vary significantly: The closely watched Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast, for example, shows an expected 1.2% decline between the first and second quarters on an annualized basis.</p><p>A second consecutive quarter of GDP declines would ring alarm bells and fuel concerns that the U.S. has already dropped into a recession, given that two quarters of negative growth has historically been one criterion of a formal downturn. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. recessions, looks at a broader set of factors in making its determination and is watching for “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”</p><p>Given the current strength of the U.S. labor market and healthy business and consumer balance sheets, most economists agree that even if data shows the economy shrank again for the second straight quarter, the key elements of a recession have not yet been met.</p><p>“But ‘yet’ is the operative word,” says Diane Swonk, chief economist with KPMG. “Because momentum is slowing, and we’re getting closer to the edge. And it’s hard, when you get close to the edge, to not fall into the canyon.”</p><p>The top concern for economists ahead of the second-quarter GDP data release is that slowdowns in the most recent period are likely to be more worrisome and show more fundamental weakness than the factors that dragged down growth at the start of the year.</p><p>Between January and March, much of the decline was due to one-off factors including a surge in imports, which count as a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decline in the pace of inventory restocking. But the elements that better reflect the economy’s momentum, including consumer spending and private investment, remained strong.</p><p>That is likely to have shifted in the second quarter, when sluggish growth—or potential contraction—was driven more by fundamental weakness, including consumer spending softening and business fixed investment slowing.</p><p>“There’s less of a way to explain away the weakness in Q2,” says Tim Quinlan, senior economist with Wells Fargo.“This feels to be like an economy that’s actually losing momentum.”</p><p>For the Federal Reserve, some softening is both expected and necessary in order to rein in inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesdaythat the central bank is watching what it sees as “a marked slowing in the second quarter that is fairly broad.” But he added that the Fed wants to see demand running below potential for a sustained period in order to “give inflation a chance to come down.”</p><p>Plus, given that the numbers being released Thursday will be revised twice before they’re final, “you tend to take first GDP reports, I think, with a grain of salt,” Powell said. “But of course, it’s something we’ll be looking at.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Q2 GDP Come Today. The Recession Debate Won’t End</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Q2 GDP Come Today. The Recession Debate Won’t End\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-28 14:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-gdp-second-quarter-51658959193?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The U.S. economy likely grew slightly in the second quarter as consumer spending slowed amid rising prices and a slump in new home sales. Don’t expect the debate over recession to fade, however....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-gdp-second-quarter-51658959193?mod=hp_LATEST\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-gdp-second-quarter-51658959193?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107174113","content_text":"The U.S. economy likely grew slightly in the second quarter as consumer spending slowed amid rising prices and a slump in new home sales. Don’t expect the debate over recession to fade, however.Economists expect gross-domestic product grew at a 0.3% annual rate between March and June, consensus expectations show, a sluggish pace that nonetheless suggests a turnaround from the first quarter’s 1.6% decline. But economists’ estimates vary significantly: The closely watched Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast, for example, shows an expected 1.2% decline between the first and second quarters on an annualized basis.A second consecutive quarter of GDP declines would ring alarm bells and fuel concerns that the U.S. has already dropped into a recession, given that two quarters of negative growth has historically been one criterion of a formal downturn. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. recessions, looks at a broader set of factors in making its determination and is watching for “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”Given the current strength of the U.S. labor market and healthy business and consumer balance sheets, most economists agree that even if data shows the economy shrank again for the second straight quarter, the key elements of a recession have not yet been met.“But ‘yet’ is the operative word,” says Diane Swonk, chief economist with KPMG. “Because momentum is slowing, and we’re getting closer to the edge. And it’s hard, when you get close to the edge, to not fall into the canyon.”The top concern for economists ahead of the second-quarter GDP data release is that slowdowns in the most recent period are likely to be more worrisome and show more fundamental weakness than the factors that dragged down growth at the start of the year.Between January and March, much of the decline was due to one-off factors including a surge in imports, which count as a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decline in the pace of inventory restocking. But the elements that better reflect the economy’s momentum, including consumer spending and private investment, remained strong.That is likely to have shifted in the second quarter, when sluggish growth—or potential contraction—was driven more by fundamental weakness, including consumer spending softening and business fixed investment slowing.“There’s less of a way to explain away the weakness in Q2,” says Tim Quinlan, senior economist with Wells Fargo.“This feels to be like an economy that’s actually losing momentum.”For the Federal Reserve, some softening is both expected and necessary in order to rein in inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesdaythat the central bank is watching what it sees as “a marked slowing in the second quarter that is fairly broad.” But he added that the Fed wants to see demand running below potential for a sustained period in order to “give inflation a chance to come down.”Plus, given that the numbers being released Thursday will be revised twice before they’re final, “you tend to take first GDP reports, I think, with a grain of salt,” Powell said. “But of course, it’s something we’ll be looking at.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9903602346,"gmtCreate":1659014023985,"gmtModify":1676536243781,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please. Thanks dudes","listText":"Like please. Thanks dudes","text":"Like please. Thanks dudes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903602346","repostId":"1153550324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153550324","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659011517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153550324?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 20:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153550324","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely acc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-28 20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153550324","content_text":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904607454,"gmtCreate":1660028898881,"gmtModify":1703477149049,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904607454","repostId":"1106501795","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1106501795","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660127930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106501795?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-10 18:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme-Stock Frenzy Returns, Baffling Wall Street’s \"Smart Guys\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106501795","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Bed Bath & Beyond nearly triples as retail traders pounceHeavily-shorted stocks, de-SPACs are part o","content":"<div>\n<p>Bed Bath & Beyond nearly triples as retail traders pounceHeavily-shorted stocks, de-SPACs are part of broader reboundPhotographer: Luke Sharrett/BloombergRetail traders who lurk in forums like Reddit’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/bed-bath-beyond-jump-brings-some-meme-frenzy-to-broad-rally?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme-Stock Frenzy Returns, Baffling Wall Street’s \"Smart Guys\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme-Stock Frenzy Returns, Baffling Wall Street’s \"Smart Guys\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-10 18:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/bed-bath-beyond-jump-brings-some-meme-frenzy-to-broad-rally?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bed Bath & Beyond nearly triples as retail traders pounceHeavily-shorted stocks, de-SPACs are part of broader reboundPhotographer: Luke Sharrett/BloombergRetail traders who lurk in forums like Reddit’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/bed-bath-beyond-jump-brings-some-meme-frenzy-to-broad-rally?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","RENT":"Rent the Runway, Inc.","AMTD":"Amtd Idea","HKD":"尚乘数科","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","EXPR":"Express, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MEGL":"智富融资","AMC":"AMC院线",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GME":"游戏驿站","W":"Wayfair"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/bed-bath-beyond-jump-brings-some-meme-frenzy-to-broad-rally?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106501795","content_text":"Bed Bath & Beyond nearly triples as retail traders pounceHeavily-shorted stocks, de-SPACs are part of broader reboundPhotographer: Luke Sharrett/BloombergRetail traders who lurk in forums like Reddit’s WallStreetBets are back to betting against Wall Street pros and the Federal Reserve as rallies for meme stocks like Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. show shades of last year’s mania.The home-good retailer nearly tripled at one point during its nine-day winning streak while the movie-theater firm capped a 65% rally of its own as speculative pockets of the stock market surge. The pair have powered a basket of 37 meme stocks tracked by Bloomberg higher by 10% over the past week while the most-hated stocks tracked by a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket is up roughly 17% over the same period.The resurgence of more speculative areas of the market is likely fueled in part by individual traders willingness to jump on riskier trades and bet against hedge funds. A rally in tech shares and other growth stocks at one point on Monday pushed the Nasdaq 100 Index up 20% from a June low amid alarms from some on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve is set on fighting inflation regardless of the pain for the stock market.The “smart guys” are “confused, baffled and fighting short positions from a position of weakness in terms of momentum and firepower,” said Mark Taylor, a sales trader at Mirabaud Securities. “The lack of real understanding of why a sudden resurrection of the meme-entum bid could lead to some nefarious speculation about things being manipulated but what would be as much sour grapes speculation as anything real.”Bed Bath & Beyond’s taking of the meme stock baton resulted in a 40% rally Monday as a record 120.5 million shares changed hands with the stock being the second-most bought asset on Fidelity’s platform. AMC Entertainment was among the five most purchased stocks on the platform and saw trading volume triple what’s been normal over the past month. Both company tickers, along with GameStop Corp., were the most mentioned on Reddit’s WallStreetBets platform.A basket of meme stocks tracked by Bloomberg rose 3.7%, extending a six-day rally of its own. Among the group’s top performers were GameStop and Express Inc. Newly-public Magic Empire Global Ltd., a little-known Hong Kong-based financial services firm, extended a 2,825% two-day surge since going public, attracting some retail attention.“These meme stock rallies that are emerging will only last if US stocks broadly continue to head higher,” said Ed Moya, senior market strategist at Oanda. “After AMTD Digital reminded the WallStreetBets crowd of the potential skyrocketing moves, many retail traders are scanning their favorite plays and are looking to get back in.”The rapid rise and subsequent fall for AMTD Digital Inc. both puzzled and captivated the markets. The stock posted an eye-popping surge of more than 32,000% at one point before erasing a chunk of gains.Heavily-shorted stocks like Wayfair Inc., Rent the Runway Inc., and those that went public via blank-check merger including 23andMe Holding Co. saw double-digit rallies at one point as investors braced for volatility.Short SqueezeShort covering from institutional investors may have boosted the recent surge, according to some on Wall Street. More than half of Bed Bath & Beyond shares available for trading are currently sold short, according to data from analytics firm S3 Partners, while AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Wayfair short interest each sit around 20%.An index tracking hedge funds’ high-conviction bets rose 1.8% last week, trailing those favored by retail investors by 2.7 percentage points, the most since March, data compiled by Goldman Sachs show. While still early into August, the firm’s basket of retail favorites is on track for the best month since Jan. 2021 relative to firms favored by hedge funds. The retail basket carries names including Delta Airlines Inc., which just clocked the longest streak of weekly gains since 2020.“Retail traders have to move quickly, because one headline can change the entire trajectory of the stock market,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Retail traders are daring the Fed and they’re daring some professional investors, and they’re doing well so far. It’s dicey because it can go in the other direction really fast.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"GME":0.9,"AMTD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HKD":0.9,"MEGL":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"W":0.9,"EXPR":0.9,"RENT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902682718,"gmtCreate":1659687232139,"gmtModify":1704874329956,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice start and hope will more than that&nbsp;","listText":"Nice start and hope will more than that&nbsp;","text":"Nice start and hope will more than that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902682718","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903608002,"gmtCreate":1659013663006,"gmtModify":1676536243726,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wait for market open and see the reaction, better buckle up your seat belt.&nbsp;","listText":"Wait for market open and see the reaction, better buckle up your seat belt.&nbsp;","text":"Wait for market open and see the reaction, better buckle up your seat belt.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903608002","repostId":"1153550324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153550324","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659011517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153550324?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 20:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153550324","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely acc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-28 20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153550324","content_text":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908746186,"gmtCreate":1659447448847,"gmtModify":1705980429291,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMTD\">$AMTD International(AMTD)$</a>suspension!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMTD\">$AMTD International(AMTD)$</a>suspension!!!","text":"$AMTD International(AMTD)$suspension!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908746186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903859391,"gmtCreate":1659008028513,"gmtModify":1676536242958,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903859391","repostId":"1107174113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107174113","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658990914,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107174113?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Q2 GDP Come Today. The Recession Debate Won’t End","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107174113","media":"Barrons","summary":"The U.S. economy likely grew slightly in the second quarter as consumer spending slowed amid rising ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy likely grew slightly in the second quarter as consumer spending slowed amid rising prices and a slump in new home sales. Don’t expect the debate over recession to fade, however.</p><p>Economists expect gross-domestic product grew at a 0.3% annual rate between March and June, consensus expectations show, a sluggish pace that nonetheless suggests a turnaround from the first quarter’s 1.6% decline. But economists’ estimates vary significantly: The closely watched Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast, for example, shows an expected 1.2% decline between the first and second quarters on an annualized basis.</p><p>A second consecutive quarter of GDP declines would ring alarm bells and fuel concerns that the U.S. has already dropped into a recession, given that two quarters of negative growth has historically been one criterion of a formal downturn. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. recessions, looks at a broader set of factors in making its determination and is watching for “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”</p><p>Given the current strength of the U.S. labor market and healthy business and consumer balance sheets, most economists agree that even if data shows the economy shrank again for the second straight quarter, the key elements of a recession have not yet been met.</p><p>“But ‘yet’ is the operative word,” says Diane Swonk, chief economist with KPMG. “Because momentum is slowing, and we’re getting closer to the edge. And it’s hard, when you get close to the edge, to not fall into the canyon.”</p><p>The top concern for economists ahead of the second-quarter GDP data release is that slowdowns in the most recent period are likely to be more worrisome and show more fundamental weakness than the factors that dragged down growth at the start of the year.</p><p>Between January and March, much of the decline was due to one-off factors including a surge in imports, which count as a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decline in the pace of inventory restocking. But the elements that better reflect the economy’s momentum, including consumer spending and private investment, remained strong.</p><p>That is likely to have shifted in the second quarter, when sluggish growth—or potential contraction—was driven more by fundamental weakness, including consumer spending softening and business fixed investment slowing.</p><p>“There’s less of a way to explain away the weakness in Q2,” says Tim Quinlan, senior economist with Wells Fargo.“This feels to be like an economy that’s actually losing momentum.”</p><p>For the Federal Reserve, some softening is both expected and necessary in order to rein in inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesdaythat the central bank is watching what it sees as “a marked slowing in the second quarter that is fairly broad.” But he added that the Fed wants to see demand running below potential for a sustained period in order to “give inflation a chance to come down.”</p><p>Plus, given that the numbers being released Thursday will be revised twice before they’re final, “you tend to take first GDP reports, I think, with a grain of salt,” Powell said. “But of course, it’s something we’ll be looking at.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Q2 GDP Come Today. The Recession Debate Won’t End</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Q2 GDP Come Today. The Recession Debate Won’t End\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-28 14:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-gdp-second-quarter-51658959193?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The U.S. economy likely grew slightly in the second quarter as consumer spending slowed amid rising prices and a slump in new home sales. Don’t expect the debate over recession to fade, however....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-gdp-second-quarter-51658959193?mod=hp_LATEST\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-gdp-second-quarter-51658959193?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107174113","content_text":"The U.S. economy likely grew slightly in the second quarter as consumer spending slowed amid rising prices and a slump in new home sales. Don’t expect the debate over recession to fade, however.Economists expect gross-domestic product grew at a 0.3% annual rate between March and June, consensus expectations show, a sluggish pace that nonetheless suggests a turnaround from the first quarter’s 1.6% decline. But economists’ estimates vary significantly: The closely watched Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast, for example, shows an expected 1.2% decline between the first and second quarters on an annualized basis.A second consecutive quarter of GDP declines would ring alarm bells and fuel concerns that the U.S. has already dropped into a recession, given that two quarters of negative growth has historically been one criterion of a formal downturn. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. recessions, looks at a broader set of factors in making its determination and is watching for “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”Given the current strength of the U.S. labor market and healthy business and consumer balance sheets, most economists agree that even if data shows the economy shrank again for the second straight quarter, the key elements of a recession have not yet been met.“But ‘yet’ is the operative word,” says Diane Swonk, chief economist with KPMG. “Because momentum is slowing, and we’re getting closer to the edge. And it’s hard, when you get close to the edge, to not fall into the canyon.”The top concern for economists ahead of the second-quarter GDP data release is that slowdowns in the most recent period are likely to be more worrisome and show more fundamental weakness than the factors that dragged down growth at the start of the year.Between January and March, much of the decline was due to one-off factors including a surge in imports, which count as a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decline in the pace of inventory restocking. But the elements that better reflect the economy’s momentum, including consumer spending and private investment, remained strong.That is likely to have shifted in the second quarter, when sluggish growth—or potential contraction—was driven more by fundamental weakness, including consumer spending softening and business fixed investment slowing.“There’s less of a way to explain away the weakness in Q2,” says Tim Quinlan, senior economist with Wells Fargo.“This feels to be like an economy that’s actually losing momentum.”For the Federal Reserve, some softening is both expected and necessary in order to rein in inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesdaythat the central bank is watching what it sees as “a marked slowing in the second quarter that is fairly broad.” But he added that the Fed wants to see demand running below potential for a sustained period in order to “give inflation a chance to come down.”Plus, given that the numbers being released Thursday will be revised twice before they’re final, “you tend to take first GDP reports, I think, with a grain of salt,” Powell said. “But of course, it’s something we’ll be looking at.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982196237,"gmtCreate":1667107640129,"gmtModify":1676537862481,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982196237","repostId":"1103409968","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103409968","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1667086223,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103409968?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-30 07:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street's new savior: \"Fiscal version of QE\" coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103409968","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"是左手倒右手，还是一石二鸟？9月以来，美债流动性指标达到了疫情时期的最差水平。市场原本期待美联储能效仿英国央行，站出来挽救正走向崩溃的美债。但出乎意料的是，美联储没有站出来，站出来的是美国财政部！10","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is it the left hand to the right hand, or does it kill two birds with one stone? Since September, U.S. debt liquidity indicators have reached their worst level during the epidemic. The market had expected the Federal Reserve to follow the example of the Bank of England and stand up to save the collapsing U.S. debt.</p><p><b>But unexpectedly, the Federal Reserve didn't come forward, and it was the U.S. Treasury Department that came forward!</b></p><p>In October, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen admitted more than once that she was worried about the $24 trillion market, and couldn't wait to hint that the Treasury would take actions to protect liquidity, such as buying back U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p><b>Is \"fiscal version of QE\" coming?</b></p><p>Wall Street analysts believe that on the one hand, Treasury Bond repurchases can improve the liquidity level of the long-term bond market, release traders' balance sheets and help them buy or expand further.</p><p>On the other hand, issuing short-term debt will push up overnight interest rates, which may help consume RRP faster and raise the level of reserves.</p><p>The fall in long-term interest rates and the rise in reserve levels will not only save the U.S. bond market, but also be a shot in the arm for risky assets. Just imagine how U.S. stocks will perform in the current extreme state where short liquidation will cause the S&P index to skyrocket?</p><p><b>This can't help but make Wall Street look forward to the \"fiscal version of QE\".</b></p><p>So, is Treasury Bond's repurchase a bad move from the left hand to the right hand, or a coup to kill two birds with one stone?</p><p><b>Is the U.S. bond market one step away from collapse?</b></p><p>Since October, the British Treasury Bond has taken the lead in suffering a major sell-off, forcing the Bank of England to carry out emergency purchase operations, while the sharp drop in the yen has prompted Japanese authorities to repeatedly intervene in the foreign exchange market.</p><p>Although the US $23.7 trillion bond market is the largest and most liquid fixed income market in the world, many market traders and economists have begun to worry that this market may become the next round of crisis. The source of the crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3827a4f6e82649b3a56c4c2e323fc09f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Credit: MacroMicro</p><p><b>The recent measure of U.S. Treasury Bond liquidity indicator (MOVE) has reached its worst level during the epidemic market failure period.</b>At the time, the Federal Reserve injected $1 trillion a day to shore up the bond market and launched a $120 billion quantitative easing policy to shorten the disastrous dollar short squeeze. Now, however, the biggest buyer in Treasury Bond's market is making a big shrinking balance sheet, stripping Treasury Bond from its balance sheet at a rate of $60 billion a month.<b>The Federal Reserve, which turned the tide at that time, is now pushing the bond market to death.</b></p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan, the largest overseas buyer in the U.S. bond market, had to choose to sell U.S. assets sharply to maintain exchange rate stability in order to stabilize the exchange rate. According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, US $34.5 billion in U.S. debt was sold in August, and it is expected that the selling volume in September may exceed US $50 billion. In addition, concerns about UK pension margin and tail risks in the bond market have also intensified the sell-off of related assets.</p><p>The sharp sequential decline in bonds has caused many traditional large players, such as U.S. commercial banks and life insurance companies, to avoid the debt market. Large financial institutions, because the so-called supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) requires banks to set aside capital for such businesses, have also been reluctant to act as market makers.</p><p>On the supply side, the outstanding Treasury Bond of the United States have increased by 7 trillion since the end of 2019.</p><p>Bank of America strategists Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel and others said,<b>With just one shock, the U.S. bond market may face operational challenges from \"large-scale forced selling or external emergencies.\"</b>。</p><p>This made U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen say more than once,<b>\"We are concerned about the lack of sufficient liquidity in the (Treasury Bond) market.\"</b></p><p><b>What is the \"fiscal version of QE\"?</b></p><p>The ongoing liquidity crisis means the bond market is on the brink of collapse.</p><p>Similar to the Bank of England, this was supposed to be saved by the Fed through bond purchases (QE). But in order to remain as neutral as possible, the Fed has to at least take some twisting operation (sell short and buy long). However, the Federal Reserve is already in a shrinking balance sheet, and Operation Twist may face short-term debt shortage.</p><p>The bigger problem is that in the current situation of hot inflation and out-of-control stickiness, even if the Fed takes neutral purchase intervention measures, it will encounter public and political anger. They would equate it with a capitulation by the Fed on tightening, with potentially unpredictable consequences for inflation governance and the Fed's credibility.</p><p><b>Since the Federal Reserve can't QE, the Ministry of Finance came forward to QE.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69764b78fa3d67ff7001acecdf2823d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In fact, as early as August, in the minutes of the meeting of the Finance and Financing Committee, it was mentioned: \"The Committee introduced the desirability of regular repurchase operations as a debt management tool.\"</p><p>Earlier this month, the U.S. Treasury Department asked U.S. Treasury Bond primary dealers for their views on the pros and cons of the buyback program. In the second half of the year, Treasury Secretary Yellen hinted at the possibility of buying back some U.S. government bonds.</p><p><b>So what is \"fiscal version of QE\"?</b></p><p><b>That is, the Ministry of Finance puts liquidity into the market by buying back Treasury Bond (redeeming undue debt).</b>In fact, as a debt management tool, Treasury Bond repurchase has been widely used in European and American countries.</p><p>In 1807, the United States first used bond repurchase to redeem unexpired Treasury Bond in advance. In 2000, faced with the first consecutive fiscal surplus in 40 years ($69 billion in 1998, $123 billion in 1999 and $237 billion in 2000), the U.S. Treasury Department decided to re-purchase bonds.</p><p><b>For the Ministry of Finance, the repurchase of Treasury Bond has the following advantages:</b></p><p>1.<b>Improve liquidity of benchmark bonds and reduce interest costs for governments</b>, improve the efficiency of the capital market. Generally speaking, the yield difference between high-liquidity benchmark bonds and old bonds with poor liquidity is very obvious. The redemption operation can improve efficiency by buying back old bonds with illiquid liquidity,<b>Especially on the premise of fiscal surplus.</b></p><p>2. By repaying bonds with longer maturities,<b>Debt repurchases help to rationally adjust the target term structure,</b>Prevent the increase of the average maturity of debt and reduce the cost of financing. For example, the average maturity of U.S. debt has increased from about 60 months in 1980 to about 70 months during the epidemic, and large-scale bond issuance during the epidemic once again lengthened the average maturity of U.S. debt to 74 months. Longer maturities represent higher financing costs, which will increase the government's debt burden in the long run.</p><p>3. Smooth the peak of bond issuance and make more effective use of excess cash during periods of fiscal surplus.</p><p>At the beginning of 2000, the United States planned to buy back $30 billion of Treasury Bond within the year, make a judgment on the market response according to the operation, and adjust the prompt period, scale, time and operation rules accordingly. And stipulates the terms of the repurchase, including: announcing the bonds that meet the maturity period and the total number of repurchased; Number of tenders per bond, maximum acceptable price, remaining privately held bond balance, etc. The operation is conducted through the Open Market Operating System of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.</p><p><b>Financial move, killing two birds with one stone?</b></p><p>From the above, we can summarize the three characteristics of Treasury Bond repurchase: 1) tools in the period of fiscal surplus; 2) Improve liquidity; 3) Reduce financing costs.</p><p>Judging from the fact that repurchase was originally mainly used as an adjustment tool in the context of fiscal surplus, it is not in line with the current large fiscal deficit. Therefore, its purpose clearly points to the current liquidity problem in the U.S. bond market.</p><p>Skyrm, a repurchase expert at Curvature, believes that in terms of role,<b>1) The \"fiscal version of QE\" provides liquidity by purchasing less liquid bonds.</b>The Treasury's purchase of old cheap securities that have been eliminated by the market improves the balance sheets of market traders and gives them the ability to expand further. The repurchase announcement can even further drive market demand. For example, as 20-year bonds are considered to benefit the most from the buyback program, this variety rebounded after the release of the survey.</p><p><b>2) \"Fiscal version of QE\", there are theoretically three ways of financing: a book cash; b Short-term Treasury Bond financing; c Duration neutral financing</b>, (i.e. any government securities repurchased by the Treasury will be replaced with debt of the same maturity to keep the weighted average maturity of the outstanding debt constant.) In the context of the current non-fiscal surplus and longer debt duration, the probability of b is higher. (Of course, this is still the focus of concern of Wall Street analysts at present, and we still need to wait for the clarification of the Ministry of Finance.)</p><p><b>If short-term Treasury Bond financing is adopted, since short-term debt is directly used as general collateral in the current repo market, the increased supply of short-term debt will push up overnight interest rates and may help to consume reverse repo usage (RRP) faster.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ba830b87f2a32338ee13c2efe15b0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve's assets and liabilities have expanded by 2.25 times, resulting in a flood of liquidity within the U.S. financial system, and the use of RRP tools (which can be understood as a reservoir of idle funds from non-bank institutions) has risen to more than 2 trillion.</p><p>But since the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, RRP has become a problem. It turns out that the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet hopes that the reduction of funds in the financial system will first flow out of RRP, which can provide a buffer for reserves for at least 15 months. But so far the opposite has been true: bank deposits are the first to fall, which has caused banks' reserves to fall faster than expected.</p><p><b>As long as the RRP remains high, the shrinking balance sheet will continue to consume the reserve level, which increases the instability of the financial system and the large fluctuation of short-term interest rates, which is the most unfavorable situation for risky assets and the reason for the early end of the last round of QT.</b></p><p>However, if the supply of short-term debt can expel liquidity from RRP, RRP may once again act as a reserve cushion, which is of great significance to the stability of the financial system and risky assets.</p><p>According to calculations by Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities,<b>The intervention of the \"fiscal version of QE\" may even trigger the forced liquidation of short positions in short-term Treasury Bond and stock trend strategies. In the current market where short positions are crowded and long positions are insufficient, even if it is not the previous surge in short positions covering, it may form an obvious rebound.</b></p><p><b>If this is the case, the \"fiscal version of QE\" both stabilizes liquidity and reserves. It can not only save U.S. debt, but also save U.S. stocks. It has to be said that it is a coup to kill two birds with one stone.</b></p><p>However, judging from the timing of implementation. Earlier, the market consensus expected that Treasury Bond buybacks would be launched by the end of the first quarter of 2023, when Treasury Bond issuances are expected to be larger. But if there are \"serious problems with the operation of Treasury Bond's market\", the timing may be brought forward.</p><p>Of course, there are still big doubts about the scale of the \"fiscal version of QE\", the extent to which liquidity can be stabilized, and the runoff of the impact on RRP mentioned above. Barclays' Abate pointed out that although the Ministry of Finance is likely to issue additional short-term debt financing, this does not mean that it can \"distort\" the yield curve or withdraw liquidity from RRPs.</p><p>Its only definite positive significance is that,<b>It reduces the long-tail risk of U.S. bond market failure and promotes long-term interest rates to return to equilibrium levels.</b>Because even though the liquidity of the U.S. bond market has deteriorated considerably, a collapse is still not the basic scenario. We need to pay more attention to the more detailed disclosure of the Ministry of Finance on Treasury Bond repurchase, so as to make a more appropriate judgment. Expect more discussion on this in the refinancing document released by the U.S. Treasury Department on Nov. 2.</p><p><b>Without looking forward to Powell's release, Wall Street turned to look forward to the \"fiscal version of QE\" more and more.</b></p><p>But after all, this requires the Ministry of Finance to expand its balance sheet, which is also contrary to the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. For European and American financial markets, which are deeply hungry for QE, QE may be able to solve the immediate problems, but QE will also bring more problems. So is the \"fiscal version of QE\" a bad move for left-handed and right-handed, or can it really kill two birds with one stone? We'll wait and see.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street's new savior: \"Fiscal version of QE\" coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street's new savior: \"Fiscal version of QE\" coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-30 07:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is it the left hand to the right hand, or does it kill two birds with one stone? Since September, U.S. debt liquidity indicators have reached their worst level during the epidemic. The market had expected the Federal Reserve to follow the example of the Bank of England and stand up to save the collapsing U.S. debt.</p><p><b>But unexpectedly, the Federal Reserve didn't come forward, and it was the U.S. Treasury Department that came forward!</b></p><p>In October, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen admitted more than once that she was worried about the $24 trillion market, and couldn't wait to hint that the Treasury would take actions to protect liquidity, such as buying back U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p><b>Is \"fiscal version of QE\" coming?</b></p><p>Wall Street analysts believe that on the one hand, Treasury Bond repurchases can improve the liquidity level of the long-term bond market, release traders' balance sheets and help them buy or expand further.</p><p>On the other hand, issuing short-term debt will push up overnight interest rates, which may help consume RRP faster and raise the level of reserves.</p><p>The fall in long-term interest rates and the rise in reserve levels will not only save the U.S. bond market, but also be a shot in the arm for risky assets. Just imagine how U.S. stocks will perform in the current extreme state where short liquidation will cause the S&P index to skyrocket?</p><p><b>This can't help but make Wall Street look forward to the \"fiscal version of QE\".</b></p><p>So, is Treasury Bond's repurchase a bad move from the left hand to the right hand, or a coup to kill two birds with one stone?</p><p><b>Is the U.S. bond market one step away from collapse?</b></p><p>Since October, the British Treasury Bond has taken the lead in suffering a major sell-off, forcing the Bank of England to carry out emergency purchase operations, while the sharp drop in the yen has prompted Japanese authorities to repeatedly intervene in the foreign exchange market.</p><p>Although the US $23.7 trillion bond market is the largest and most liquid fixed income market in the world, many market traders and economists have begun to worry that this market may become the next round of crisis. The source of the crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3827a4f6e82649b3a56c4c2e323fc09f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Credit: MacroMicro</p><p><b>The recent measure of U.S. Treasury Bond liquidity indicator (MOVE) has reached its worst level during the epidemic market failure period.</b>At the time, the Federal Reserve injected $1 trillion a day to shore up the bond market and launched a $120 billion quantitative easing policy to shorten the disastrous dollar short squeeze. Now, however, the biggest buyer in Treasury Bond's market is making a big shrinking balance sheet, stripping Treasury Bond from its balance sheet at a rate of $60 billion a month.<b>The Federal Reserve, which turned the tide at that time, is now pushing the bond market to death.</b></p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan, the largest overseas buyer in the U.S. bond market, had to choose to sell U.S. assets sharply to maintain exchange rate stability in order to stabilize the exchange rate. According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, US $34.5 billion in U.S. debt was sold in August, and it is expected that the selling volume in September may exceed US $50 billion. In addition, concerns about UK pension margin and tail risks in the bond market have also intensified the sell-off of related assets.</p><p>The sharp sequential decline in bonds has caused many traditional large players, such as U.S. commercial banks and life insurance companies, to avoid the debt market. Large financial institutions, because the so-called supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) requires banks to set aside capital for such businesses, have also been reluctant to act as market makers.</p><p>On the supply side, the outstanding Treasury Bond of the United States have increased by 7 trillion since the end of 2019.</p><p>Bank of America strategists Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel and others said,<b>With just one shock, the U.S. bond market may face operational challenges from \"large-scale forced selling or external emergencies.\"</b>。</p><p>This made U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen say more than once,<b>\"We are concerned about the lack of sufficient liquidity in the (Treasury Bond) market.\"</b></p><p><b>What is the \"fiscal version of QE\"?</b></p><p>The ongoing liquidity crisis means the bond market is on the brink of collapse.</p><p>Similar to the Bank of England, this was supposed to be saved by the Fed through bond purchases (QE). But in order to remain as neutral as possible, the Fed has to at least take some twisting operation (sell short and buy long). However, the Federal Reserve is already in a shrinking balance sheet, and Operation Twist may face short-term debt shortage.</p><p>The bigger problem is that in the current situation of hot inflation and out-of-control stickiness, even if the Fed takes neutral purchase intervention measures, it will encounter public and political anger. They would equate it with a capitulation by the Fed on tightening, with potentially unpredictable consequences for inflation governance and the Fed's credibility.</p><p><b>Since the Federal Reserve can't QE, the Ministry of Finance came forward to QE.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69764b78fa3d67ff7001acecdf2823d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In fact, as early as August, in the minutes of the meeting of the Finance and Financing Committee, it was mentioned: \"The Committee introduced the desirability of regular repurchase operations as a debt management tool.\"</p><p>Earlier this month, the U.S. Treasury Department asked U.S. Treasury Bond primary dealers for their views on the pros and cons of the buyback program. In the second half of the year, Treasury Secretary Yellen hinted at the possibility of buying back some U.S. government bonds.</p><p><b>So what is \"fiscal version of QE\"?</b></p><p><b>That is, the Ministry of Finance puts liquidity into the market by buying back Treasury Bond (redeeming undue debt).</b>In fact, as a debt management tool, Treasury Bond repurchase has been widely used in European and American countries.</p><p>In 1807, the United States first used bond repurchase to redeem unexpired Treasury Bond in advance. In 2000, faced with the first consecutive fiscal surplus in 40 years ($69 billion in 1998, $123 billion in 1999 and $237 billion in 2000), the U.S. Treasury Department decided to re-purchase bonds.</p><p><b>For the Ministry of Finance, the repurchase of Treasury Bond has the following advantages:</b></p><p>1.<b>Improve liquidity of benchmark bonds and reduce interest costs for governments</b>, improve the efficiency of the capital market. Generally speaking, the yield difference between high-liquidity benchmark bonds and old bonds with poor liquidity is very obvious. The redemption operation can improve efficiency by buying back old bonds with illiquid liquidity,<b>Especially on the premise of fiscal surplus.</b></p><p>2. By repaying bonds with longer maturities,<b>Debt repurchases help to rationally adjust the target term structure,</b>Prevent the increase of the average maturity of debt and reduce the cost of financing. For example, the average maturity of U.S. debt has increased from about 60 months in 1980 to about 70 months during the epidemic, and large-scale bond issuance during the epidemic once again lengthened the average maturity of U.S. debt to 74 months. Longer maturities represent higher financing costs, which will increase the government's debt burden in the long run.</p><p>3. Smooth the peak of bond issuance and make more effective use of excess cash during periods of fiscal surplus.</p><p>At the beginning of 2000, the United States planned to buy back $30 billion of Treasury Bond within the year, make a judgment on the market response according to the operation, and adjust the prompt period, scale, time and operation rules accordingly. And stipulates the terms of the repurchase, including: announcing the bonds that meet the maturity period and the total number of repurchased; Number of tenders per bond, maximum acceptable price, remaining privately held bond balance, etc. The operation is conducted through the Open Market Operating System of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.</p><p><b>Financial move, killing two birds with one stone?</b></p><p>From the above, we can summarize the three characteristics of Treasury Bond repurchase: 1) tools in the period of fiscal surplus; 2) Improve liquidity; 3) Reduce financing costs.</p><p>Judging from the fact that repurchase was originally mainly used as an adjustment tool in the context of fiscal surplus, it is not in line with the current large fiscal deficit. Therefore, its purpose clearly points to the current liquidity problem in the U.S. bond market.</p><p>Skyrm, a repurchase expert at Curvature, believes that in terms of role,<b>1) The \"fiscal version of QE\" provides liquidity by purchasing less liquid bonds.</b>The Treasury's purchase of old cheap securities that have been eliminated by the market improves the balance sheets of market traders and gives them the ability to expand further. The repurchase announcement can even further drive market demand. For example, as 20-year bonds are considered to benefit the most from the buyback program, this variety rebounded after the release of the survey.</p><p><b>2) \"Fiscal version of QE\", there are theoretically three ways of financing: a book cash; b Short-term Treasury Bond financing; c Duration neutral financing</b>, (i.e. any government securities repurchased by the Treasury will be replaced with debt of the same maturity to keep the weighted average maturity of the outstanding debt constant.) In the context of the current non-fiscal surplus and longer debt duration, the probability of b is higher. (Of course, this is still the focus of concern of Wall Street analysts at present, and we still need to wait for the clarification of the Ministry of Finance.)</p><p><b>If short-term Treasury Bond financing is adopted, since short-term debt is directly used as general collateral in the current repo market, the increased supply of short-term debt will push up overnight interest rates and may help to consume reverse repo usage (RRP) faster.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ba830b87f2a32338ee13c2efe15b0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve's assets and liabilities have expanded by 2.25 times, resulting in a flood of liquidity within the U.S. financial system, and the use of RRP tools (which can be understood as a reservoir of idle funds from non-bank institutions) has risen to more than 2 trillion.</p><p>But since the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, RRP has become a problem. It turns out that the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet hopes that the reduction of funds in the financial system will first flow out of RRP, which can provide a buffer for reserves for at least 15 months. But so far the opposite has been true: bank deposits are the first to fall, which has caused banks' reserves to fall faster than expected.</p><p><b>As long as the RRP remains high, the shrinking balance sheet will continue to consume the reserve level, which increases the instability of the financial system and the large fluctuation of short-term interest rates, which is the most unfavorable situation for risky assets and the reason for the early end of the last round of QT.</b></p><p>However, if the supply of short-term debt can expel liquidity from RRP, RRP may once again act as a reserve cushion, which is of great significance to the stability of the financial system and risky assets.</p><p>According to calculations by Charlie McElligott of Nomura Securities,<b>The intervention of the \"fiscal version of QE\" may even trigger the forced liquidation of short positions in short-term Treasury Bond and stock trend strategies. In the current market where short positions are crowded and long positions are insufficient, even if it is not the previous surge in short positions covering, it may form an obvious rebound.</b></p><p><b>If this is the case, the \"fiscal version of QE\" both stabilizes liquidity and reserves. It can not only save U.S. debt, but also save U.S. stocks. It has to be said that it is a coup to kill two birds with one stone.</b></p><p>However, judging from the timing of implementation. Earlier, the market consensus expected that Treasury Bond buybacks would be launched by the end of the first quarter of 2023, when Treasury Bond issuances are expected to be larger. But if there are \"serious problems with the operation of Treasury Bond's market\", the timing may be brought forward.</p><p>Of course, there are still big doubts about the scale of the \"fiscal version of QE\", the extent to which liquidity can be stabilized, and the runoff of the impact on RRP mentioned above. Barclays' Abate pointed out that although the Ministry of Finance is likely to issue additional short-term debt financing, this does not mean that it can \"distort\" the yield curve or withdraw liquidity from RRPs.</p><p>Its only definite positive significance is that,<b>It reduces the long-tail risk of U.S. bond market failure and promotes long-term interest rates to return to equilibrium levels.</b>Because even though the liquidity of the U.S. bond market has deteriorated considerably, a collapse is still not the basic scenario. We need to pay more attention to the more detailed disclosure of the Ministry of Finance on Treasury Bond repurchase, so as to make a more appropriate judgment. Expect more discussion on this in the refinancing document released by the U.S. Treasury Department on Nov. 2.</p><p><b>Without looking forward to Powell's release, Wall Street turned to look forward to the \"fiscal version of QE\" more and more.</b></p><p>But after all, this requires the Ministry of Finance to expand its balance sheet, which is also contrary to the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. For European and American financial markets, which are deeply hungry for QE, QE may be able to solve the immediate problems, but QE will also bring more problems. So is the \"fiscal version of QE\" a bad move for left-handed and right-handed, or can it really kill two birds with one stone? We'll wait and see.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44af88ec30b2edeef57a4024f2321d7b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103409968","content_text":"是左手倒右手，还是一石二鸟？9月以来，美债流动性指标达到了疫情时期的最差水平。市场原本期待美联储能效仿英国央行，站出来挽救正走向崩溃的美债。但出乎意料的是，美联储没有站出来，站出来的是美国财政部！10月美财长耶伦已经不止一次承认对这个24万亿美元的市场感到担忧，并迫不及待的暗示财政部将采取行动来呵护流动性，比如：回购美国国债。“财政版QE”要来了？华尔街分析师们认为，国债回购一方面能改善长期债券市场的流动性水平，释放交易商的资产负债表，帮助它们进一步购买或扩张。另一方面，发行短债将推高隔夜利率，可能有助于更快地消耗RRP，抬升准备金的水平。长端利率回落和准备金水平上升，不仅能拯救了美债市场，对风险资产也是一剂强心针。试想一下，在当前空头平仓都会导致标普指数暴涨的极端状态下，美股会如何表现？这不禁让华尔街对“财政版QE”期待的两眼放光。那么国债回购，到底是左手倒右手的损招，还是一石二鸟的妙招呢？美债市场离崩溃一步之遥？10月以来英国国债已经率先遭遇了重大抛售，迫使英国央行实施紧急购买操作，而日元的大跌则促使日本当局反复在外汇市场实施干预。尽管规模高达23.7万亿美元的美债市场是世界上规模最大、流动性最强的固定收益市场，但不少市场交易员和经济学家也已经开始担心，这一市场可能成为下一轮危机的源头。图片来源：MacroMicro近期衡量美国国债流动性指标（MOVE），已经达到了疫情市场失灵时期的最差水平。当时，美联储每天注入1万亿美元以支撑债券市场，并推出1200亿美元的量化宽松政策以缩短灾难性的美元空头挤压。然而现在这个国债市场的最大买家正在大幅缩表，以每个月600亿美元的速度从资产负债表中剥离国债。届时力挽狂澜的美联储，如今却在把债市往死里推。于此同时，美债市场最大的海外买家——日本央行，为了稳定汇率不得不选择大幅抛售美国资产来维护汇率稳定。根据美国财政部数据8月已经抛售345亿美元美债，预计9月的抛售量可能超过500亿美元。另外英国养老保证金和债市尾部风险的担忧也加剧了相关资产的抛售。债券连续大幅下跌，使得美国商业银行和人寿保险公司等许多传统大型参与者纷纷回避债务市场。大型金融机构，因为所谓的补充杠杆率（SLR）要求银行为此类业务留出资本金，也一直不太愿意充当做市商。而供给方面，美国未偿国债自2019年底至今已经增加7万亿。美银策略师Mark Cabana、Ralph Axel等表示，只需一次冲击，美债市场可能就会面临来自“大规模强制抛售或外部突发事件”的运行层面挑战。这让也美国财长耶伦不止一次的表示，“我们担心(国债)市场缺乏足够的流动性”。什么是“财政版QE”？持续的流动性危机意味着债券市场正走向崩溃的边缘。与英国央行类似，这本该由美联储通过购买债券（QE）来挽救。但为了尽可能保持中性，美联储至少要采取一定的扭曲操作（卖短买长）。只是，美联储已经在缩表了，扭曲操作可能面临短债不足。而更大的问题是，在当前通胀炙手可热、粘性失控的情况下，即便美联储采取中性购买的干预措施，都会遭遇民众和政界的愤怒。他们会将其等同于美联储在紧缩政策上的投降，并可能对通胀治理和美联储信誉造成不可预计的后果。既然美联储没办法QE，于是，财政部站出来QE了。其实早在8月的财政财政融资委员会会议纪要中，就提到：“委员会介绍了定期回购操作作为债务管理工具的可取性。”本月早些时候，美国财政部询问了美国国债一级交易商对回购计划的优缺点的看法。下旬，财政部长耶伦暗示，有可能回购某些美国政府债券。那么什么是“财政版QE”？就是财政部通过回购国债（赎回未到期的债务）向市场投放流动性。实际上，国债回购曾作为一种债务管理工具，在欧美国家得到广泛应用。美国最早于1807年运用债券购回手段提前赎回未到期的国债。2000年面对40年来首次连续出现的财政盈余（1998年盈余690亿美元，1999年1230亿美元，2000年2370亿美元），美国财政部决定重新进行债券购回操作。对财政部而言，回购国债具有下述优势：1.提高基准债券的流动性，减少政府的利息成本，提高资本市场的效率。一般而言高流动性基准债券和流动性较差的老债两者收益率差异非常明显。赎回操作可通过购回流动性差的旧债券来提高效率，特别是在财政盈余的前提下。2.通过偿付到期期限较长的债券，债务购回有助于合理调整目标期限结构，预防债务平均期限的提高，并降低融资成本。例如美国债务平均期限已经从1980年的60个月左右提高到疫情期间的70个月左右，而疫情期间大规模发债再度拉长了美国债务的平均期限到74个月。越长的期限代表越高的融资成本，从长期看，这会增加政府的债务负担。3. 平滑债券发行高峰，以及在财政盈余时期，更有效地利用超额现金。美国在2000年初计划在年内购回300亿美元的国债，根据操作对市场反映做出判断，相应调整提示期间、规模、时间和操作规律。并规定了回购的条款，包括：公布到期期限符合条件的债券和购回的总数量；每个债券的招标数量、最高可接受价格、剩余的私人持有的债券余额等。该操作通过纽约联邦储备银行的公开市场操作系统进行。财政出手，一石二鸟？从以上我们可以总结出国债回购的三大特征：1）财政盈余时期的工具；2）提高流动性；3）降低融资成本。从回购原本主要是用于财政盈余背景下的调节工具，目前大额的财政赤字来看并不符合。所以其目的很清楚的指向当前美债市场的流动性问题。Curvature的回购专家Skyrm认为，从作用来看，1）“财政版QE”通过购买流动性较低的债券提供流动性。财政部买入被市场淘汰的旧廉价证券，改善了市场交易商的资产负债表，使其有进一步扩张的能力。回购公告甚至能进一步带动市场需求。例如，由于20年期债券被认为将回购计划中获益最多，该品种在调查发布后出现反弹。2）“财政版QE”，理论上有三种方式融资：a账面现金；b短期国债融资；c久期中性融资，（即财政部回购的任何政府证券都将被相同期限的债务所取代，以保持未偿债务的加权平均期限不变。）在当前非财政盈余和债务久期较长的背景下，b的概率更高。（当然这一点目前还是华尔街分析师关心的焦点，还需要等财政部的明确。）如果采取短期国债融资，由于目前回购市场中短债直接作为一般抵押品，增加的短债供应将推高隔夜利率，并可能有助于更快地消耗逆回购用量（RRP）。2020年疫情爆发以来，美联储的资产负债扩张2.25倍，导致美国金融体系内部流动性泛滥，RRP工具（可理解为非银机构闲置资金的蓄水池）用量上升至2万亿以上。但自美联储缩表以来，RRP却成了一个问题。原来美联储缩表所希望金融系统中的资金减少，是首先从RRP中流出，其至少能为准备金提供15个月左右的缓冲。但到目前为止情况恰恰相反：银行存款反而率先下降，这导致银行的准备金下降速度快于预期。只要RRP维持高位，缩表将继续消耗准备金水平，这增加了金融系统的不稳定性和短端利率的大幅波动，对风险资产来说是最不利的情况，也是上轮QT提前结束的原因。但如果短债供应能将流动性从RRP中驱逐出来，RRP可能将再度起到准备金缓冲垫的作用，这对金融系统稳定和风险资产有着极大的意义。按照野村证券Charlie McElligott的测算，“财政版QE”的干预甚至可能触发短期国债和股票趋势策略空头的强制平仓。这在当前空头拥挤和多头不足的市场中，即便不是之前空头补仓的暴涨，也可能形成一轮明显的反弹。如果真是这样的话，“财政版QE”既平稳了流动性，又平稳了准备金。既能拯救了美债，也能拯救美股，不得不说是一石二鸟的妙招。不过从实施时机来看。早些时候，市场一致预期国债回购将在2023年的一季度末，即预期国债发行规模较大的时候推出。但如果出现“严重的国债市场运作问题”，时机可能会提前。当然“财政版QE”到底能有多少规模，多大程度平稳流动性，以及上述提及对RRP影响的径流，事实上目前依然存在较大的质疑。巴克莱的Abate就指出，虽然财政部很可能会通过发行额外的短债融资，但这并不意味着能“扭曲”收益率曲线或从RRP中提取流动性。其唯一比较确定的积极意义在于，降低了美债市场失灵的长尾风险，促使长端利率回归均衡水平。因为即使美债市场的流动性已经相当恶化，但崩溃依然不是基本假设情景。我们需要进一步关注财政部在国债回购上更多的细节披露，从而做出更合适的判断。预计美国财政部11月2日发布的再融资文件将对此有更多讨论。盼不到鲍威尔的松口，华尔街转而对“财政版QE”越来越期待。但是这毕竟需要财政部来扩表，这也和美联储的缩表相违背。对于深陷QE饥渴症的欧美金融市场来说，QE或许能解决眼前的问题，但QE也会带来更多问题。所以“财政版QE”是左手倒右手的损招，还是真能一石二鸟？我们拭目以待。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907060364,"gmtCreate":1660108390060,"gmtModify":1703478031529,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meaning? Good or bad news?","listText":"Meaning? Good or bad news?","text":"Meaning? Good or bad news?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9907060364","repostId":"2258426671","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906881047,"gmtCreate":1659515198192,"gmtModify":1705981174930,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I will keep for 1 to 2 days","listText":"I will keep for 1 to 2 days","text":"I will keep for 1 to 2 days","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906881047","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903651044,"gmtCreate":1659022426088,"gmtModify":1676536245478,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a>will rebound after 1pm?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a>will rebound after 1pm?","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$will rebound after 1pm?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903651044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903878430,"gmtCreate":1659011905520,"gmtModify":1676536243523,"author":{"id":"4092786756661910","authorId":"4092786756661910","name":"stanF9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be991f08909c2a3aa30b46844e599baf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092786756661910","idStr":"4092786756661910"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Got to wait for awhile... will sink again","listText":"Got to wait for awhile... will sink again","text":"Got to wait for awhile... will sink again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903878430","repostId":"1153550324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153550324","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659011517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153550324?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 20:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153550324","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely acc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGDP Fell 0.9% in the Second Quarter, the Second Straight Decline and a Strong Recession Signal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-28 20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.</p><p>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.</p><p>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.</p><p>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153550324","content_text":"The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}