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2022-04-20

I wonder how much does PLTR need to be priced to be considered accurately values in the eyes of value investors

Palantir Technologies: Still Pricey Despite Rapid Growth

2022-03-10

Wrong NIO. Lol

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But after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the need for data and the ability to process that data became clearer than it ever was before. One company that developed around that time with the focus ofproviding software for the intelligence community was Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR). Fast forward to today, and the enterprise is a behemoth in the market, boasting a market capitalization of $25.21 billion. Although the company has been subjected to significant volatility from a share price perspective as of late, management continues to expand the firm on both its top and bottom lines. At present, shares of the business are incredibly pricey. And because of that, investors should tread cautiously. But if management can achieve the targets they set, then it could still make for a reasonable investment for growth investors who are willing to hold on for the long haul. But value investors should tread cautiously given how shares are currently priced.</p><p><b>Palantir - A play on national security</b></p><p>In the eyes of many Americans, you cannot get more patriotic than supporting a firm that is dedicated to preserving the nation&#39;s national security. At the same time, companies like Palantir Technologies have become controversial because of the large portion of America&#39;s population that wishes to reduce human rights issues surrounding US immigration enforcement and privacy rights involving local police departments. Which side is right in this argument, or whether both sides have valid points, is less of a concern for investors than the fact that the firm has done well to establish itself as a valuable player in this market over the years. Although the company is largelyfocusedand has historically been focused on government clients, it does have a large degree of exposure to the commercial market. In 2021, for instance, 58% of the company&#39;s revenue came from its government operations. The remaining 42% was attributable to commercial clients.</p><p>Today, Palantir Technologies operates largely through three different software platforms that it developed over time. The first of these is called Palantir Gotham. Its emphasis is on enabling users to identify patterns that might be hidden within datasets that otherwise wouldn&#39;t be easily discernible to the naked eye. It also facilitates in the handing off of this information between analysts and operational users, helping, in effect, operators to plan and execute real-world responses to threats that the platform has identified. Though this platform does focus largely on serving the government, it is also available for commercial customers like those in the financial services industry when it comes to searching for potential fraud.</p><p>The next platform that Palantir Technologies developed is called Palantir Foundry. In essence, IT services organizations by taking their data and centralizing it in one place, with the end goal of allowing them to integrate and analyze that data all together. And finally, we arrive at Palantir Apollo. This particular feature involves the delivery, in a timely manner, of the company&#39;s software and updates across its other platforms. Initially, this platform was only available to government clients. But starting last year, the company made it available to commercial customers in order to empower them to securely deploy their own software as needed.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24f2b41ef14110d61e14e1278212635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author - SEC EDGAR Data</span></p><p>Over the past three years, management has done exceptionally well to grow the company&#39;s operations. Back in 2019, for instance, the business generated revenue of just $742.6 million. This expanded to $1.09 billion in 2020 before surging to $1.54 billion last year. What&#39;s really impressive is that, despite its size, management expects the firm to continue expanding at a rapid pace for the foreseeable future. In fact, they currently forecast that revenue will continue to grow at an annualized rate of 30% or higher through at least the year 2025. Taking this at face value, this would imply revenue this year of about $2 billion, with revenue in 2025 totaling $4.40 billion.</p><p>How you determine the company&#39;s success on its bottom line would really depend on what you define as profitability. Taking the term ‘profitability’ literally, we would pay attention to net income. By this measure, Palantir Technologies has been a rather volatile company in recent years, as well as a business that simply fails to deliver. In each of the past three years, for instance, the business has generated a net loss. The loss in 2019 was $579.6 million. This ballooned to a loss of $1.17 billion in 2020 before narrowing to a loss of $520.4 million last year.</p><p>There are, of course, other ways to measure profitability. And when you consider that a rapidly growing enterprise like this is paying a significant amount to employees in the form of stock-based compensation, it&#39;s reasonable to look at these other metrics instead. Operating cash flow has been a bit better. In 2019, this was negative to the tune of $165.2 million. Although it worsened to $296.6 million in 2020, it eventually turned positive to the tune of $333.9 million last year. If we adjust for changes in working capital and certain one-time adjustments, it turned from a negative $306.4 million in 2019 to a positive $425.9 million last year. Another metric that warrants our attention is EBITDA. This also has followed a favorable trend, going from a negative $298.8 million in 2019 to a positive $488.3 million last year.</p><p>When it comes to the company&#39;s 2022 fiscal year, management has only provided one estimate that might help us figure out what kind of cash flow the business could generate. This refers to the adjusted operating margin for the enterprise. Management defines this as the company&#39;s operating income or loss, plus stock-based compensation, plus employer payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation, plus non-recurring direct listing charges. They anticipate this margin to be about 27% of the company&#39;s revenue. This would translate to a figure of about $541.2 million. Using the historical adjusted operating margin for the company, I found that it closely mirrors the company&#39;s adjusted operating cash flow and its EBITDA. Because of this, I feel like it&#39;s appropriate to use this as a proxy for both of those metrics.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/876ee90028107a59a91dbe8a57a436b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author - SEC EDGAR Data</span></p><p>Using this approach, we find that shares of Palantir Technologies are incredibly pricey at this point in time. Using the company&#39;s 2021 results, we find that it is trading at a price to operating cash flow multiple of 59.2. Meanwhile, the EV to EBITDA multiple of the company should be 46.3. If, instead, we rely on the 2022 estimates, these multiples are 46.6 and 41.8, respectively. To put the pricing of the company into perspective, I compared it to five other application software companies. Unfortunately, none of these are perfect comparables by any means. But they are probably the best we can get. On a price to operating cash flow basis, these companies ranged from a low of 30.5 to a high of 141.7. Three of the five companies were cheaper than Palantir Technologies. Using the EV to EBITDA approach, the range was from 30.2 to 12,559. In this scenario, two of the five companies were cheaper than our prospect.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f6e4f1c2218ab5951c233850cadaa\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As for the future, the fact that Palantir Technologies is expensive today but is likely fairly priced compared to similar firms, may not be an issue if management can continue growing the company at a rapid pace. To see why this is, I took management&#39;s guidance for revenue for the next few years and, using three different scenarios, priced the business from a price to operating cash flow basis and from an EV to EBITDA basis (again, using the adjusted operating margin as a proxy for both of these). In the first scenario, I assumed that the adjusted operating margin for the business would average the 27% that the company is forecasting for this year. In the second scenario, I&#39;m using the assumption that this margin grows to 30%. And in the final scenario, I assumed that the margin would grow to 35%. It should be mentioned that this margin has been historically volatile. In 2020, for instance, it was just 17%. And in 2021, it averaged 31%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa9ba5d9b1abd8c7b58c9a0f2287802\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author</span></p><p>Using this approach, we find that shares do become cheaper over time. But how much cheaper and how rapidly is the magic question. Generally, using all three scenarios, shares look to be reasonably priced by the 2025 fiscal year. Though if the firm can continue rapid growth, the data for 2024 doesn&#39;t look all that bad either. What this means is that, in order for the company to ultimately be a valid prospect, the firm must maintain strong margins and achieve the growth targets management has set for it.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>Based on the data provided, Palantir Technologies seems to be a quality company that is growing at a rapid pace. Having said that, shares of the business are not particularly cheap. Technically, I would argue that they look rather expensive right now, even though they might be fairly priced compared to similar firms. At the end of the day, the only investors who should buy into the company are those who don&#39;t mind volatility and who believe that management can achieve the targets set for it. Anybody who is value-oriented and does not want to rely on such strong growth would be wise to steer clear of the firm at this point in time. Although I can understand investors being bullish on the firm, I myself would not purchase it given my own, value-oriented, approach to investing.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Technologies: Still Pricey Despite Rapid Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Technologies: Still Pricey Despite Rapid Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502078-palantir-stock-pricey-despite-rapid-growth><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir Technologies has exhibited tremendous growth in recent years and management expects that trend to continue.Palantir's cash flows are now robust and this is encouraging, and this should...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502078-palantir-stock-pricey-despite-rapid-growth\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502078-palantir-stock-pricey-despite-rapid-growth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1113337087","content_text":"SummaryPalantir Technologies has exhibited tremendous growth in recent years and management expects that trend to continue.Palantir's cash flows are now robust and this is encouraging, and this should also continue to be the case moving forward.But PLTR stock is pricey for value-oriented investors at the moment.Growth investors who don't mind keeping a watchful eye on the company might find this appealing in the long run though.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesNational security has always been an important topic. But after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the need for data and the ability to process that data became clearer than it ever was before. One company that developed around that time with the focus ofproviding software for the intelligence community was Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR). Fast forward to today, and the enterprise is a behemoth in the market, boasting a market capitalization of $25.21 billion. Although the company has been subjected to significant volatility from a share price perspective as of late, management continues to expand the firm on both its top and bottom lines. At present, shares of the business are incredibly pricey. And because of that, investors should tread cautiously. But if management can achieve the targets they set, then it could still make for a reasonable investment for growth investors who are willing to hold on for the long haul. But value investors should tread cautiously given how shares are currently priced.Palantir - A play on national securityIn the eyes of many Americans, you cannot get more patriotic than supporting a firm that is dedicated to preserving the nation's national security. At the same time, companies like Palantir Technologies have become controversial because of the large portion of America's population that wishes to reduce human rights issues surrounding US immigration enforcement and privacy rights involving local police departments. Which side is right in this argument, or whether both sides have valid points, is less of a concern for investors than the fact that the firm has done well to establish itself as a valuable player in this market over the years. Although the company is largelyfocusedand has historically been focused on government clients, it does have a large degree of exposure to the commercial market. In 2021, for instance, 58% of the company's revenue came from its government operations. The remaining 42% was attributable to commercial clients.Today, Palantir Technologies operates largely through three different software platforms that it developed over time. The first of these is called Palantir Gotham. Its emphasis is on enabling users to identify patterns that might be hidden within datasets that otherwise wouldn't be easily discernible to the naked eye. It also facilitates in the handing off of this information between analysts and operational users, helping, in effect, operators to plan and execute real-world responses to threats that the platform has identified. Though this platform does focus largely on serving the government, it is also available for commercial customers like those in the financial services industry when it comes to searching for potential fraud.The next platform that Palantir Technologies developed is called Palantir Foundry. In essence, IT services organizations by taking their data and centralizing it in one place, with the end goal of allowing them to integrate and analyze that data all together. And finally, we arrive at Palantir Apollo. This particular feature involves the delivery, in a timely manner, of the company's software and updates across its other platforms. Initially, this platform was only available to government clients. But starting last year, the company made it available to commercial customers in order to empower them to securely deploy their own software as needed.Author - SEC EDGAR DataOver the past three years, management has done exceptionally well to grow the company's operations. Back in 2019, for instance, the business generated revenue of just $742.6 million. This expanded to $1.09 billion in 2020 before surging to $1.54 billion last year. What's really impressive is that, despite its size, management expects the firm to continue expanding at a rapid pace for the foreseeable future. In fact, they currently forecast that revenue will continue to grow at an annualized rate of 30% or higher through at least the year 2025. Taking this at face value, this would imply revenue this year of about $2 billion, with revenue in 2025 totaling $4.40 billion.How you determine the company's success on its bottom line would really depend on what you define as profitability. Taking the term ‘profitability’ literally, we would pay attention to net income. By this measure, Palantir Technologies has been a rather volatile company in recent years, as well as a business that simply fails to deliver. In each of the past three years, for instance, the business has generated a net loss. The loss in 2019 was $579.6 million. This ballooned to a loss of $1.17 billion in 2020 before narrowing to a loss of $520.4 million last year.There are, of course, other ways to measure profitability. And when you consider that a rapidly growing enterprise like this is paying a significant amount to employees in the form of stock-based compensation, it's reasonable to look at these other metrics instead. Operating cash flow has been a bit better. In 2019, this was negative to the tune of $165.2 million. Although it worsened to $296.6 million in 2020, it eventually turned positive to the tune of $333.9 million last year. If we adjust for changes in working capital and certain one-time adjustments, it turned from a negative $306.4 million in 2019 to a positive $425.9 million last year. Another metric that warrants our attention is EBITDA. This also has followed a favorable trend, going from a negative $298.8 million in 2019 to a positive $488.3 million last year.When it comes to the company's 2022 fiscal year, management has only provided one estimate that might help us figure out what kind of cash flow the business could generate. This refers to the adjusted operating margin for the enterprise. Management defines this as the company's operating income or loss, plus stock-based compensation, plus employer payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation, plus non-recurring direct listing charges. They anticipate this margin to be about 27% of the company's revenue. This would translate to a figure of about $541.2 million. Using the historical adjusted operating margin for the company, I found that it closely mirrors the company's adjusted operating cash flow and its EBITDA. Because of this, I feel like it's appropriate to use this as a proxy for both of those metrics.Author - SEC EDGAR DataUsing this approach, we find that shares of Palantir Technologies are incredibly pricey at this point in time. Using the company's 2021 results, we find that it is trading at a price to operating cash flow multiple of 59.2. Meanwhile, the EV to EBITDA multiple of the company should be 46.3. If, instead, we rely on the 2022 estimates, these multiples are 46.6 and 41.8, respectively. To put the pricing of the company into perspective, I compared it to five other application software companies. Unfortunately, none of these are perfect comparables by any means. But they are probably the best we can get. On a price to operating cash flow basis, these companies ranged from a low of 30.5 to a high of 141.7. Three of the five companies were cheaper than Palantir Technologies. Using the EV to EBITDA approach, the range was from 30.2 to 12,559. In this scenario, two of the five companies were cheaper than our prospect.As for the future, the fact that Palantir Technologies is expensive today but is likely fairly priced compared to similar firms, may not be an issue if management can continue growing the company at a rapid pace. To see why this is, I took management's guidance for revenue for the next few years and, using three different scenarios, priced the business from a price to operating cash flow basis and from an EV to EBITDA basis (again, using the adjusted operating margin as a proxy for both of these). In the first scenario, I assumed that the adjusted operating margin for the business would average the 27% that the company is forecasting for this year. In the second scenario, I'm using the assumption that this margin grows to 30%. And in the final scenario, I assumed that the margin would grow to 35%. It should be mentioned that this margin has been historically volatile. In 2020, for instance, it was just 17%. And in 2021, it averaged 31%.AuthorUsing this approach, we find that shares do become cheaper over time. But how much cheaper and how rapidly is the magic question. Generally, using all three scenarios, shares look to be reasonably priced by the 2025 fiscal year. Though if the firm can continue rapid growth, the data for 2024 doesn't look all that bad either. What this means is that, in order for the company to ultimately be a valid prospect, the firm must maintain strong margins and achieve the growth targets management has set for it.TakeawayBased on the data provided, Palantir Technologies seems to be a quality company that is growing at a rapid pace. Having said that, shares of the business are not particularly cheap. Technically, I would argue that they look rather expensive right now, even though they might be fairly priced compared to similar firms. At the end of the day, the only investors who should buy into the company are those who don't mind volatility and who believe that management can achieve the targets set for it. Anybody who is value-oriented and does not want to rely on such strong growth would be wise to steer clear of the firm at this point in time. Although I can understand investors being bullish on the firm, I myself would not purchase it given my own, value-oriented, approach to investing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038520991,"gmtCreate":1646871894759,"gmtModify":1676534171574,"author":{"id":"4093483292878540","authorId":"4093483292878540","name":"kiwibirdegg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1099c0d7c8b4b042f266b7c00ac45e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wrong NIO. Lol","listText":"Wrong NIO. Lol","text":"Wrong NIO. Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038520991","repostId":"2218231007","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031737990,"gmtCreate":1646665308182,"gmtModify":1676534148378,"author":{"id":"4093483292878540","authorId":"4093483292878540","name":"kiwibirdegg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1099c0d7c8b4b042f266b7c00ac45e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like 👍🏻","listText":"Like 👍🏻","text":"Like 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031737990","repostId":"2217417387","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2217417387","pubTimestamp":1646666247,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2217417387?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-07 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Electric Vehicle Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist and 2 to Avoid Like the Plague","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2217417387","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Electric vehicles (EVs) could account for roughly half of all auto sales by 2030, but not every EV stock will be a winner.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It&#39;s not often that an entire industry is disrupted in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> fell swoop, but that&#39;s precisely what&#39;s happened to the once-stodgy auto industry. The electrification of consumer vehicles and enterprise fleets, and the desire by most countries to reduce their carbon footprints and halt climate change in its tracks, mean that we&#39;re witnessing the beginning of what could be a multidecade vehicle replacement cycle.</p><p>According to a survey conducted late last year by KPMG, the average forecast of the more than 1,000 global auto leaders KPMG spoke to was for worldwide electric vehicle (EV) sales to reach roughly 50% of all autos sold by 2030.  Meanwhile, a November report from Market Research Future calls for the EV industry to hit $957 billion in market value by 2030, which is more than quadruple its value at the end of 2021.</p><p>Although investing in EV growth looks like a no-brainer opportunity, not all stocks associated with the electrification of autos will be winners. While I believe one name can be bought hand over fist (I&#39;ll get to this company in a bit), there are two EV stocks that should be avoided like the plague.</p><p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F669077%2F2022-rivian-r1t-22.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> all-electric Rivian R1Ts. Image source: Rivian Automotive.</p><h2>The first EV stock to avoid: Rivian Automotive</h2><p>On the surface, <b>Rivian Automotive</b> (NASDAQ:RIVN), which was one of 2021&#39;s hottest initial public offerings (IPOs), looks like it has the tools to be successful. The company will offer three differentiated vehicles -- the R1T pickup truck, the R1S SUV, and the EDV electric van -- with planned annual capacity ranging from 200,000 vehicles at its Illinois factory to 400,000 at its Georgia plant. The latter is an estimated figure, with Rivian spending a cool $5 billion to build the factory. Production is anticipated to begin by 2024.</p><p>Rivian also has an order for 100,000 EDVs from <b>Amazon</b>, which it received in 2019. The sheer size of this order has validated Rivian as a player of interest in the EV space for years.</p><p>But the flipside to Rivian is that it&#39;s still very wet behind the ears. The company produced only 1,015 EVs in 2021 and had its IPO with no trailing-12-month sales. It missed an already low production bar for 2021, and will likely deal with the same supply chain constraints affecting the entire industry. In other words, Rivian&#39;s trajectory is bound to hit numerous speed bumps and potholes. It&#39;s par for the course when building an EV company from the ground up.</p><p>Making matters worse, Rivian finds itself in hot water with the public after announcing, then walking back (for those who ordered before March 1), a price hike of $12,000 on its quad-motor models. Higher material costs are forcing automakers to boost prices. While Rivian was simply following the pack, a $12,000 price hike on vehicles that already cost $70,000 (or more) didn&#39;t sit well with customers. If Rivian isn&#39;t careful, it could price customers out of buying its vehicles.</p><p>While Rivian could eventually grow into an investment-worthy company in the EV space, it has little business being valued at $45 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F669077%2Fnikola-badger-2.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The all-electric Nikola Badger got the ax before it even rolled off the production line. Image source: Nikola.</p><h2>The second EV stock to avoid: Nikola</h2><p>Well before Rivian was the hottest thing in the EV space, <b>Nikola</b> (NASDAQ:NKLA) was making waves. It was one of many companies that went public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). On June 9, 2020, Nikola hit an intraday high of nearly $94 a share. Unfortunately, those same shares were trading hands for $7 and change as of March 3, 2022.</p><p>The initial buzz for Nikola had to do with its introduction of the Badger in February 2020. The Badger was to be a battery EV (BEV) or fuel-cell EV (FCEV) pickup truck with an estimated 600-mile range and a reasonably low $60,000 price tag. When coupled with Nikola&#39;s ambitions to also build BEV and FCEV semi trucks, Wall Street was enamored, at least initially, with the company&#39;s potential. Then the proverbial wheels fell off.</p><p>Over the course of the next year and a half, the Badger would be shelved before it even rolled off the production line. This was due, in part, to Nikola being unable to land a manufacturing partner for the truck. Though it looked as if <b>General Motors</b> would step up and be that partner, an eventual agreement between the two companies didn&#39;t include the Badger.</p><p>Worse yet, a handful of allegations of wrongdoing levied by short-side firm Hindenburg Research against Nikola proved to be true. An independent review found that pre-order figures were exaggerated. This resulted in a probe by the Securities and Exchange Commission, leading to former CEO Trevor Milton being indicted on three counts of fraud this past July.</p><p>Today, Nikola is only just beginning to deliver its first BEV semi trucks. Even though it&#39;s received a couple of letter-of-intent orders during the fourth quarter for its semi trucks, it&#39;s not clear if the company has the capital necessary to ramp up production and ward off significant quarterly losses. When coupled with its damaged reputation, Nikola becomes an easy pass for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F669077%2Fnio-et7-ev-sedan.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The newly introduced Nio ET7 EV sedan. Image source: Nio.</p><h2>The EV stock to buy hand over fist: Nio</h2><p>On the other end of the spectrum is <b>Nio</b> (NYSE:NIO), which checks all the appropriate boxes and can be bought hand over fist following its recent pullback.</p><p>I&#39;ll freely admit that, a little over a year ago, I had Nio in the same camp as Nikola -- i.e., Avoid! Avoid! Avoid! At one point, Nio&#39;s valuation topped $90 billion with the company pacing for only around 20,000 EVs in production annually. Its valuation just didn&#39;t make any sense.</p><p>However, management has really impressed with its ability to boost production in a challenging environment. Though the Chinese New Year held back production in February, and supply chain issues curbed output in January, Nio managed to top 10,000 deliveries in both November and December. Management has offered guidance suggesting that the company can hit 50,000 deliveries monthly by the end of the year. This would work out to an annual run-rate of around 600,000 EVs.</p><p>Fueling this production surge is Nio&#39;s existing line of EVs, as well as the introduction of three new vehicles. Until now, the company&#39;s premium SUVs (the ES8 and ES6) and crossover EV (the ES6) have received plenty of interest. But the next wave of growth will come from the deliveries of the ET7 and ET5, which are EV sedans that take direct aim at <b>Tesla</b>&#39;s Model S and Model 3, respectively. With the top-tier battery option, Nio claims an estimated range of approximately 621 miles for its sedans.</p><p>Furthermore, the battery-as-a-service (BaaS) program that was unveiled in August 2020 by management is pure genius. For buyers, BaaS lowers the initial purchase price of their vehicle and gives them the option to charge, swap, or upgrade their batteries at a later date. For Nio, it trades lower-margin near-term sales for high-margin fee-based revenue (buyers pay a monthly fee for the BaaS program) that keeps buyers loyal to the brand.</p><p>And did I mention Nio is based in China, the world&#39;s largest auto market? The EV industry is still nascent in China, meaning market share is up for grabs.</p><p>With Nio expected to turn the corner to recurring profitability next year, and the company valued at just seven times Wall Street&#39;s forecast earnings per share in 2024, it looks like a screaming buy.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Electric Vehicle Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist and 2 to Avoid Like the Plague</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Electric Vehicle Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist and 2 to Avoid Like the Plague\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-07 23:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/07/1-electric-vehicle-stock-buy-2-avoid-like-plague/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's not often that an entire industry is disrupted in one fell swoop, but that's precisely what's happened to the once-stodgy auto industry. The electrification of consumer vehicles and enterprise ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/07/1-electric-vehicle-stock-buy-2-avoid-like-plague/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4562":"SPAC上市公司","NIO":"蔚来","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4149":"建筑机械与重型卡车","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/07/1-electric-vehicle-stock-buy-2-avoid-like-plague/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2217417387","content_text":"It's not often that an entire industry is disrupted in one fell swoop, but that's precisely what's happened to the once-stodgy auto industry. The electrification of consumer vehicles and enterprise fleets, and the desire by most countries to reduce their carbon footprints and halt climate change in its tracks, mean that we're witnessing the beginning of what could be a multidecade vehicle replacement cycle.According to a survey conducted late last year by KPMG, the average forecast of the more than 1,000 global auto leaders KPMG spoke to was for worldwide electric vehicle (EV) sales to reach roughly 50% of all autos sold by 2030.  Meanwhile, a November report from Market Research Future calls for the EV industry to hit $957 billion in market value by 2030, which is more than quadruple its value at the end of 2021.Although investing in EV growth looks like a no-brainer opportunity, not all stocks associated with the electrification of autos will be winners. While I believe one name can be bought hand over fist (I'll get to this company in a bit), there are two EV stocks that should be avoided like the plague.Two all-electric Rivian R1Ts. Image source: Rivian Automotive.The first EV stock to avoid: Rivian AutomotiveOn the surface, Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN), which was one of 2021's hottest initial public offerings (IPOs), looks like it has the tools to be successful. The company will offer three differentiated vehicles -- the R1T pickup truck, the R1S SUV, and the EDV electric van -- with planned annual capacity ranging from 200,000 vehicles at its Illinois factory to 400,000 at its Georgia plant. The latter is an estimated figure, with Rivian spending a cool $5 billion to build the factory. Production is anticipated to begin by 2024.Rivian also has an order for 100,000 EDVs from Amazon, which it received in 2019. The sheer size of this order has validated Rivian as a player of interest in the EV space for years.But the flipside to Rivian is that it's still very wet behind the ears. The company produced only 1,015 EVs in 2021 and had its IPO with no trailing-12-month sales. It missed an already low production bar for 2021, and will likely deal with the same supply chain constraints affecting the entire industry. In other words, Rivian's trajectory is bound to hit numerous speed bumps and potholes. It's par for the course when building an EV company from the ground up.Making matters worse, Rivian finds itself in hot water with the public after announcing, then walking back (for those who ordered before March 1), a price hike of $12,000 on its quad-motor models. Higher material costs are forcing automakers to boost prices. While Rivian was simply following the pack, a $12,000 price hike on vehicles that already cost $70,000 (or more) didn't sit well with customers. If Rivian isn't careful, it could price customers out of buying its vehicles.While Rivian could eventually grow into an investment-worthy company in the EV space, it has little business being valued at $45 billion.The all-electric Nikola Badger got the ax before it even rolled off the production line. Image source: Nikola.The second EV stock to avoid: NikolaWell before Rivian was the hottest thing in the EV space, Nikola (NASDAQ:NKLA) was making waves. It was one of many companies that went public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). On June 9, 2020, Nikola hit an intraday high of nearly $94 a share. Unfortunately, those same shares were trading hands for $7 and change as of March 3, 2022.The initial buzz for Nikola had to do with its introduction of the Badger in February 2020. The Badger was to be a battery EV (BEV) or fuel-cell EV (FCEV) pickup truck with an estimated 600-mile range and a reasonably low $60,000 price tag. When coupled with Nikola's ambitions to also build BEV and FCEV semi trucks, Wall Street was enamored, at least initially, with the company's potential. Then the proverbial wheels fell off.Over the course of the next year and a half, the Badger would be shelved before it even rolled off the production line. This was due, in part, to Nikola being unable to land a manufacturing partner for the truck. Though it looked as if General Motors would step up and be that partner, an eventual agreement between the two companies didn't include the Badger.Worse yet, a handful of allegations of wrongdoing levied by short-side firm Hindenburg Research against Nikola proved to be true. An independent review found that pre-order figures were exaggerated. This resulted in a probe by the Securities and Exchange Commission, leading to former CEO Trevor Milton being indicted on three counts of fraud this past July.Today, Nikola is only just beginning to deliver its first BEV semi trucks. Even though it's received a couple of letter-of-intent orders during the fourth quarter for its semi trucks, it's not clear if the company has the capital necessary to ramp up production and ward off significant quarterly losses. When coupled with its damaged reputation, Nikola becomes an easy pass for investors.The newly introduced Nio ET7 EV sedan. Image source: Nio.The EV stock to buy hand over fist: NioOn the other end of the spectrum is Nio (NYSE:NIO), which checks all the appropriate boxes and can be bought hand over fist following its recent pullback.I'll freely admit that, a little over a year ago, I had Nio in the same camp as Nikola -- i.e., Avoid! Avoid! Avoid! At one point, Nio's valuation topped $90 billion with the company pacing for only around 20,000 EVs in production annually. Its valuation just didn't make any sense.However, management has really impressed with its ability to boost production in a challenging environment. Though the Chinese New Year held back production in February, and supply chain issues curbed output in January, Nio managed to top 10,000 deliveries in both November and December. Management has offered guidance suggesting that the company can hit 50,000 deliveries monthly by the end of the year. This would work out to an annual run-rate of around 600,000 EVs.Fueling this production surge is Nio's existing line of EVs, as well as the introduction of three new vehicles. Until now, the company's premium SUVs (the ES8 and ES6) and crossover EV (the ES6) have received plenty of interest. But the next wave of growth will come from the deliveries of the ET7 and ET5, which are EV sedans that take direct aim at Tesla's Model S and Model 3, respectively. With the top-tier battery option, Nio claims an estimated range of approximately 621 miles for its sedans.Furthermore, the battery-as-a-service (BaaS) program that was unveiled in August 2020 by management is pure genius. For buyers, BaaS lowers the initial purchase price of their vehicle and gives them the option to charge, swap, or upgrade their batteries at a later date. For Nio, it trades lower-margin near-term sales for high-margin fee-based revenue (buyers pay a monthly fee for the BaaS program) that keeps buyers loyal to the brand.And did I mention Nio is based in China, the world's largest auto market? The EV industry is still nascent in China, meaning market share is up for grabs.With Nio expected to turn the corner to recurring profitability next year, and the company valued at just seven times Wall Street's forecast earnings per share in 2024, it looks like a screaming buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9031737990,"gmtCreate":1646665308182,"gmtModify":1676534148378,"author":{"id":"4093483292878540","authorId":"4093483292878540","name":"kiwibirdegg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1099c0d7c8b4b042f266b7c00ac45e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like 👍🏻","listText":"Like 👍🏻","text":"Like 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031737990","repostId":"2217417387","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086182104,"gmtCreate":1650421929075,"gmtModify":1676534720920,"author":{"id":"4093483292878540","authorId":"4093483292878540","name":"kiwibirdegg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1099c0d7c8b4b042f266b7c00ac45e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I wonder how much does PLTR need to be priced to be considered accurately values in the eyes of value investors&nbsp;","listText":"I wonder how much does PLTR need to be priced to be considered accurately values in the eyes of value investors&nbsp;","text":"I wonder how much does PLTR need to be priced to be considered accurately values in the eyes of value investors","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086182104","repostId":"1113337087","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113337087","pubTimestamp":1650421203,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113337087?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-20 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Technologies: Still Pricey Despite Rapid Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113337087","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir Technologies has exhibited tremendous growth in recent years and management expects ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir Technologies has exhibited tremendous growth in recent years and management expects that trend to continue.</li><li>Palantir&#39;s cash flows are now robust and this is encouraging, and this should also continue to be the case moving forward.</li><li>But PLTR stock is pricey for value-oriented investors at the moment.</li><li>Growth investors who don&#39;t mind keeping a watchful eye on the company might find this appealing in the long run though.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1dd5b97056ed938a6a5450f3e16388d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>National security has always been an important topic. But after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the need for data and the ability to process that data became clearer than it ever was before. One company that developed around that time with the focus ofproviding software for the intelligence community was Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR). Fast forward to today, and the enterprise is a behemoth in the market, boasting a market capitalization of $25.21 billion. Although the company has been subjected to significant volatility from a share price perspective as of late, management continues to expand the firm on both its top and bottom lines. At present, shares of the business are incredibly pricey. And because of that, investors should tread cautiously. But if management can achieve the targets they set, then it could still make for a reasonable investment for growth investors who are willing to hold on for the long haul. But value investors should tread cautiously given how shares are currently priced.</p><p><b>Palantir - A play on national security</b></p><p>In the eyes of many Americans, you cannot get more patriotic than supporting a firm that is dedicated to preserving the nation&#39;s national security. At the same time, companies like Palantir Technologies have become controversial because of the large portion of America&#39;s population that wishes to reduce human rights issues surrounding US immigration enforcement and privacy rights involving local police departments. Which side is right in this argument, or whether both sides have valid points, is less of a concern for investors than the fact that the firm has done well to establish itself as a valuable player in this market over the years. Although the company is largelyfocusedand has historically been focused on government clients, it does have a large degree of exposure to the commercial market. In 2021, for instance, 58% of the company&#39;s revenue came from its government operations. The remaining 42% was attributable to commercial clients.</p><p>Today, Palantir Technologies operates largely through three different software platforms that it developed over time. The first of these is called Palantir Gotham. Its emphasis is on enabling users to identify patterns that might be hidden within datasets that otherwise wouldn&#39;t be easily discernible to the naked eye. It also facilitates in the handing off of this information between analysts and operational users, helping, in effect, operators to plan and execute real-world responses to threats that the platform has identified. Though this platform does focus largely on serving the government, it is also available for commercial customers like those in the financial services industry when it comes to searching for potential fraud.</p><p>The next platform that Palantir Technologies developed is called Palantir Foundry. In essence, IT services organizations by taking their data and centralizing it in one place, with the end goal of allowing them to integrate and analyze that data all together. And finally, we arrive at Palantir Apollo. This particular feature involves the delivery, in a timely manner, of the company&#39;s software and updates across its other platforms. Initially, this platform was only available to government clients. But starting last year, the company made it available to commercial customers in order to empower them to securely deploy their own software as needed.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24f2b41ef14110d61e14e1278212635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author - SEC EDGAR Data</span></p><p>Over the past three years, management has done exceptionally well to grow the company&#39;s operations. Back in 2019, for instance, the business generated revenue of just $742.6 million. This expanded to $1.09 billion in 2020 before surging to $1.54 billion last year. What&#39;s really impressive is that, despite its size, management expects the firm to continue expanding at a rapid pace for the foreseeable future. In fact, they currently forecast that revenue will continue to grow at an annualized rate of 30% or higher through at least the year 2025. Taking this at face value, this would imply revenue this year of about $2 billion, with revenue in 2025 totaling $4.40 billion.</p><p>How you determine the company&#39;s success on its bottom line would really depend on what you define as profitability. Taking the term ‘profitability’ literally, we would pay attention to net income. By this measure, Palantir Technologies has been a rather volatile company in recent years, as well as a business that simply fails to deliver. In each of the past three years, for instance, the business has generated a net loss. The loss in 2019 was $579.6 million. This ballooned to a loss of $1.17 billion in 2020 before narrowing to a loss of $520.4 million last year.</p><p>There are, of course, other ways to measure profitability. And when you consider that a rapidly growing enterprise like this is paying a significant amount to employees in the form of stock-based compensation, it&#39;s reasonable to look at these other metrics instead. Operating cash flow has been a bit better. In 2019, this was negative to the tune of $165.2 million. Although it worsened to $296.6 million in 2020, it eventually turned positive to the tune of $333.9 million last year. If we adjust for changes in working capital and certain one-time adjustments, it turned from a negative $306.4 million in 2019 to a positive $425.9 million last year. Another metric that warrants our attention is EBITDA. This also has followed a favorable trend, going from a negative $298.8 million in 2019 to a positive $488.3 million last year.</p><p>When it comes to the company&#39;s 2022 fiscal year, management has only provided one estimate that might help us figure out what kind of cash flow the business could generate. This refers to the adjusted operating margin for the enterprise. Management defines this as the company&#39;s operating income or loss, plus stock-based compensation, plus employer payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation, plus non-recurring direct listing charges. They anticipate this margin to be about 27% of the company&#39;s revenue. This would translate to a figure of about $541.2 million. Using the historical adjusted operating margin for the company, I found that it closely mirrors the company&#39;s adjusted operating cash flow and its EBITDA. Because of this, I feel like it&#39;s appropriate to use this as a proxy for both of those metrics.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/876ee90028107a59a91dbe8a57a436b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author - SEC EDGAR Data</span></p><p>Using this approach, we find that shares of Palantir Technologies are incredibly pricey at this point in time. Using the company&#39;s 2021 results, we find that it is trading at a price to operating cash flow multiple of 59.2. Meanwhile, the EV to EBITDA multiple of the company should be 46.3. If, instead, we rely on the 2022 estimates, these multiples are 46.6 and 41.8, respectively. To put the pricing of the company into perspective, I compared it to five other application software companies. Unfortunately, none of these are perfect comparables by any means. But they are probably the best we can get. On a price to operating cash flow basis, these companies ranged from a low of 30.5 to a high of 141.7. Three of the five companies were cheaper than Palantir Technologies. Using the EV to EBITDA approach, the range was from 30.2 to 12,559. In this scenario, two of the five companies were cheaper than our prospect.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f6e4f1c2218ab5951c233850cadaa\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As for the future, the fact that Palantir Technologies is expensive today but is likely fairly priced compared to similar firms, may not be an issue if management can continue growing the company at a rapid pace. To see why this is, I took management&#39;s guidance for revenue for the next few years and, using three different scenarios, priced the business from a price to operating cash flow basis and from an EV to EBITDA basis (again, using the adjusted operating margin as a proxy for both of these). In the first scenario, I assumed that the adjusted operating margin for the business would average the 27% that the company is forecasting for this year. In the second scenario, I&#39;m using the assumption that this margin grows to 30%. And in the final scenario, I assumed that the margin would grow to 35%. It should be mentioned that this margin has been historically volatile. In 2020, for instance, it was just 17%. And in 2021, it averaged 31%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa9ba5d9b1abd8c7b58c9a0f2287802\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author</span></p><p>Using this approach, we find that shares do become cheaper over time. But how much cheaper and how rapidly is the magic question. Generally, using all three scenarios, shares look to be reasonably priced by the 2025 fiscal year. Though if the firm can continue rapid growth, the data for 2024 doesn&#39;t look all that bad either. What this means is that, in order for the company to ultimately be a valid prospect, the firm must maintain strong margins and achieve the growth targets management has set for it.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>Based on the data provided, Palantir Technologies seems to be a quality company that is growing at a rapid pace. Having said that, shares of the business are not particularly cheap. Technically, I would argue that they look rather expensive right now, even though they might be fairly priced compared to similar firms. At the end of the day, the only investors who should buy into the company are those who don&#39;t mind volatility and who believe that management can achieve the targets set for it. Anybody who is value-oriented and does not want to rely on such strong growth would be wise to steer clear of the firm at this point in time. Although I can understand investors being bullish on the firm, I myself would not purchase it given my own, value-oriented, approach to investing.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Technologies: Still Pricey Despite Rapid Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Technologies: Still Pricey Despite Rapid Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502078-palantir-stock-pricey-despite-rapid-growth><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir Technologies has exhibited tremendous growth in recent years and management expects that trend to continue.Palantir's cash flows are now robust and this is encouraging, and this should...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502078-palantir-stock-pricey-despite-rapid-growth\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502078-palantir-stock-pricey-despite-rapid-growth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1113337087","content_text":"SummaryPalantir Technologies has exhibited tremendous growth in recent years and management expects that trend to continue.Palantir's cash flows are now robust and this is encouraging, and this should also continue to be the case moving forward.But PLTR stock is pricey for value-oriented investors at the moment.Growth investors who don't mind keeping a watchful eye on the company might find this appealing in the long run though.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesNational security has always been an important topic. But after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the need for data and the ability to process that data became clearer than it ever was before. One company that developed around that time with the focus ofproviding software for the intelligence community was Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR). Fast forward to today, and the enterprise is a behemoth in the market, boasting a market capitalization of $25.21 billion. Although the company has been subjected to significant volatility from a share price perspective as of late, management continues to expand the firm on both its top and bottom lines. At present, shares of the business are incredibly pricey. And because of that, investors should tread cautiously. But if management can achieve the targets they set, then it could still make for a reasonable investment for growth investors who are willing to hold on for the long haul. But value investors should tread cautiously given how shares are currently priced.Palantir - A play on national securityIn the eyes of many Americans, you cannot get more patriotic than supporting a firm that is dedicated to preserving the nation's national security. At the same time, companies like Palantir Technologies have become controversial because of the large portion of America's population that wishes to reduce human rights issues surrounding US immigration enforcement and privacy rights involving local police departments. Which side is right in this argument, or whether both sides have valid points, is less of a concern for investors than the fact that the firm has done well to establish itself as a valuable player in this market over the years. Although the company is largelyfocusedand has historically been focused on government clients, it does have a large degree of exposure to the commercial market. In 2021, for instance, 58% of the company's revenue came from its government operations. The remaining 42% was attributable to commercial clients.Today, Palantir Technologies operates largely through three different software platforms that it developed over time. The first of these is called Palantir Gotham. Its emphasis is on enabling users to identify patterns that might be hidden within datasets that otherwise wouldn't be easily discernible to the naked eye. It also facilitates in the handing off of this information between analysts and operational users, helping, in effect, operators to plan and execute real-world responses to threats that the platform has identified. Though this platform does focus largely on serving the government, it is also available for commercial customers like those in the financial services industry when it comes to searching for potential fraud.The next platform that Palantir Technologies developed is called Palantir Foundry. In essence, IT services organizations by taking their data and centralizing it in one place, with the end goal of allowing them to integrate and analyze that data all together. And finally, we arrive at Palantir Apollo. This particular feature involves the delivery, in a timely manner, of the company's software and updates across its other platforms. Initially, this platform was only available to government clients. But starting last year, the company made it available to commercial customers in order to empower them to securely deploy their own software as needed.Author - SEC EDGAR DataOver the past three years, management has done exceptionally well to grow the company's operations. Back in 2019, for instance, the business generated revenue of just $742.6 million. This expanded to $1.09 billion in 2020 before surging to $1.54 billion last year. What's really impressive is that, despite its size, management expects the firm to continue expanding at a rapid pace for the foreseeable future. In fact, they currently forecast that revenue will continue to grow at an annualized rate of 30% or higher through at least the year 2025. Taking this at face value, this would imply revenue this year of about $2 billion, with revenue in 2025 totaling $4.40 billion.How you determine the company's success on its bottom line would really depend on what you define as profitability. Taking the term ‘profitability’ literally, we would pay attention to net income. By this measure, Palantir Technologies has been a rather volatile company in recent years, as well as a business that simply fails to deliver. In each of the past three years, for instance, the business has generated a net loss. The loss in 2019 was $579.6 million. This ballooned to a loss of $1.17 billion in 2020 before narrowing to a loss of $520.4 million last year.There are, of course, other ways to measure profitability. And when you consider that a rapidly growing enterprise like this is paying a significant amount to employees in the form of stock-based compensation, it's reasonable to look at these other metrics instead. Operating cash flow has been a bit better. In 2019, this was negative to the tune of $165.2 million. Although it worsened to $296.6 million in 2020, it eventually turned positive to the tune of $333.9 million last year. If we adjust for changes in working capital and certain one-time adjustments, it turned from a negative $306.4 million in 2019 to a positive $425.9 million last year. Another metric that warrants our attention is EBITDA. This also has followed a favorable trend, going from a negative $298.8 million in 2019 to a positive $488.3 million last year.When it comes to the company's 2022 fiscal year, management has only provided one estimate that might help us figure out what kind of cash flow the business could generate. This refers to the adjusted operating margin for the enterprise. Management defines this as the company's operating income or loss, plus stock-based compensation, plus employer payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation, plus non-recurring direct listing charges. They anticipate this margin to be about 27% of the company's revenue. This would translate to a figure of about $541.2 million. Using the historical adjusted operating margin for the company, I found that it closely mirrors the company's adjusted operating cash flow and its EBITDA. Because of this, I feel like it's appropriate to use this as a proxy for both of those metrics.Author - SEC EDGAR DataUsing this approach, we find that shares of Palantir Technologies are incredibly pricey at this point in time. Using the company's 2021 results, we find that it is trading at a price to operating cash flow multiple of 59.2. Meanwhile, the EV to EBITDA multiple of the company should be 46.3. If, instead, we rely on the 2022 estimates, these multiples are 46.6 and 41.8, respectively. To put the pricing of the company into perspective, I compared it to five other application software companies. Unfortunately, none of these are perfect comparables by any means. But they are probably the best we can get. On a price to operating cash flow basis, these companies ranged from a low of 30.5 to a high of 141.7. Three of the five companies were cheaper than Palantir Technologies. Using the EV to EBITDA approach, the range was from 30.2 to 12,559. In this scenario, two of the five companies were cheaper than our prospect.As for the future, the fact that Palantir Technologies is expensive today but is likely fairly priced compared to similar firms, may not be an issue if management can continue growing the company at a rapid pace. To see why this is, I took management's guidance for revenue for the next few years and, using three different scenarios, priced the business from a price to operating cash flow basis and from an EV to EBITDA basis (again, using the adjusted operating margin as a proxy for both of these). In the first scenario, I assumed that the adjusted operating margin for the business would average the 27% that the company is forecasting for this year. In the second scenario, I'm using the assumption that this margin grows to 30%. And in the final scenario, I assumed that the margin would grow to 35%. It should be mentioned that this margin has been historically volatile. In 2020, for instance, it was just 17%. And in 2021, it averaged 31%.AuthorUsing this approach, we find that shares do become cheaper over time. But how much cheaper and how rapidly is the magic question. Generally, using all three scenarios, shares look to be reasonably priced by the 2025 fiscal year. Though if the firm can continue rapid growth, the data for 2024 doesn't look all that bad either. What this means is that, in order for the company to ultimately be a valid prospect, the firm must maintain strong margins and achieve the growth targets management has set for it.TakeawayBased on the data provided, Palantir Technologies seems to be a quality company that is growing at a rapid pace. Having said that, shares of the business are not particularly cheap. Technically, I would argue that they look rather expensive right now, even though they might be fairly priced compared to similar firms. At the end of the day, the only investors who should buy into the company are those who don't mind volatility and who believe that management can achieve the targets set for it. Anybody who is value-oriented and does not want to rely on such strong growth would be wise to steer clear of the firm at this point in time. Although I can understand investors being bullish on the firm, I myself would not purchase it given my own, value-oriented, approach to investing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038520991,"gmtCreate":1646871894759,"gmtModify":1676534171574,"author":{"id":"4093483292878540","authorId":"4093483292878540","name":"kiwibirdegg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1099c0d7c8b4b042f266b7c00ac45e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wrong NIO. Lol","listText":"Wrong NIO. Lol","text":"Wrong NIO. Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038520991","repostId":"2218231007","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}