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Sushee
2022-04-20
Ask us to sell and y'all gonna buy ?
Nvidia: High Crypto-Mining Exposure Makes It A Sell In The Near Term
Sushee
2022-03-24
Anyhow
Want to Retire With $1 Million? Invest $250,000 in These Tech Stocks and Wait 10 Years (or Less)
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us to sell and y'all gonna buy ?","listText":"Ask us to sell and y'all gonna buy ?","text":"Ask us to sell and y'all gonna buy ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086666081","repostId":"2228582913","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2228582913","pubTimestamp":1650447329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2228582913?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 17:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: High Crypto-Mining Exposure Makes It A Sell In The Near Term","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2228582913","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in high-end GPU markets for the past half-decade is unc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in high-end GPU markets for the past half-decade is uncontested, but its golden age appears to pause with Ethereum's anticipated switch from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. Proof of Work allows individuals to mine using GPUs and requires massive computing power. The new system is Proof of Stake, which follows a mechanism of processing transactions and creating new blocks inside a blockchain without the need for complex computations. The shift will eliminate the need to buy GPUs for crypto-mining. We believe Nvidia's management has understated its exposure to GPU sales in the crypto-mining market.</p><p>We believe Nvidia is a sell with the firm conviction that the company will not be able to keep up with its high valuation. The recent 2022 Investor Day Presentation outlines a Total Addressable Market (TAM) narrative that forecasts increasing revenues. Our numbers show this TAM narrative is unlikely, at best. We estimate Ethereum's move to Proof of Stake will likely impact Nvidia a minimum of $500 million and up to $1billion in revenue. So, therefore, we believe Nvidia stock is at the risk of a significant sell-off before the market prices in the new market reality.</p><h2><b>What Nvidia's (not) telling you</b></h2><p>The America-based semi giant has maintained leadership in manufacturing and designing computer graphic processors that operate through Graphics Processing Units ("GPU"). Like most semi-products, GPUs form an essential part of our lives, whether through computers, playstation5 graphics, or mining Ethereum in a blockchain. Indeed, Nvidia has a range of end markets it operates through: Gaming (45%), Data Centers (41%), Professional Visualization (8%), Automotive (2%), and Original Equipment Manufacturer (3%).</p><p>Innovation and tech in all these sectors have consolidated a name for Nvidia, even more so now with the Omniverse, Hooper Data Center GPU, and Grace ARM-based CPU. However, the company's expected upcoming stock pullback is not a result technological shortcomings, but rather its lack of transparency with investors about their exposure to crypto-mining demand.</p><p>The growth outlined in the GTC 2022 is based on outdated end-market demand and does well to tip-toe around Nvidia's affair with crypto-mining. Nvidia's earning presentations from the past 12 quarters fail to mention its exposure to GPU sales related to crypto-mining. We believe investors underestimate Nvidia's Crypto mining exposure at their peril.</p><h2><b>The link between Nvidia and Crypto mining is well established</b></h2><p>The link between Nvidia and crypto mining is no secret. The only way to mine Ethereum had been through GPUs, and the best GPUs are from Nvidia. The two have been married in their rise and drop since 2017. So much so, that the Ethereum 2018 hash rate dip correlates with a drop in NVDA's stock for the fiscal year of 2019. We saw this again last year (2021), when the decline in cryptocurrency-related sales impacted Nvidia stock earlier this year, bringing about a 27% decline in January 2022.</p><p>Nvidia has again slipped into the same position, and we know the secret of what's ahead. The following charts illustrate how Nvidia's stock price correlates to Ethereum's price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1249842febd4128cf317401ff809813\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>MacroAxis</p><h2><b>Stock performance</b></h2><p>Nvidia's stock is another pandemic favorite. We witnessed the stock grow 223% since the pandemic's beginning around March 2020. Specifically, NVDA stock increased 122% in 2020, 125% in 2021, and YTD, the stock is down about 26%. We do not think the stock decline is done yet, since the expected revenue declines due to the waning of Crypto Mining are not priced in. Therefore, we expect another down leg from the current levels on the stock. The following chart illustrates Nvidia's performance over the last two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6030f950931b3c004e6b34356f73a29a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Ycharts</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef85ebf29bd92fe80d8451817870f1db\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><h2><b>Valuation</b></h2><p>Nvidia is richly valued. The stock is currently trading at around $218 per share. Nvidia is relatively expensive, trading at 15.3x EV/C2022 sales versus the peer group average of 5.1x. On a P/E basis, it is trading at 39.4x C2022 EPS of $5.53, versus the peer group average of 17.4x.</p><p>Even adjusting for growth, we believe Nvidia is expensive. On a growth-adjusted basis, Nvidia is trading at 0.7x. We believe revenue and EPS estimates are at risk due to the impending slow-down in the crypto mining market. We believe NVDA's valuation is too high considering the imminent decline in crypto-mining demand and the negative shift in demand signals from the computer, consumer, and communications OEMs. The following chart illustrates Nvidia's peer group valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a72e7ba84017776aaf565cbd076c700f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Refinitiv</p><h2><b>Word on Wall Street</b></h2><p>Market consensus pushes for a strong buy on Nvidia stock, making up 81% of the sell-side ratings, with the remaining being neutral/hold rated on the stock. The overwhelming buy consensus is a natural result of investor confidence after Nvidia's GTC. The average price target on Nvidia is $338, while the median is around $350.</p><p>We do not believe the sell-side is pricing in the demand slow-down from the crypto mining business. We think there is more downside on the stock than the market is pricing it in. The following chart illustrates the sell-side ratings, price targets, and upside potential.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62362c582546dfe78faebc1eb04a5ad6\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Refinitiv</p><h2><b>What to do with the stock</b></h2><p>We recommend investors sell NVDA at its current levels. Crypto-mining GPU demand and the pandemic did drive up revenues previously, but both are expected to be no longer factors in 2H22. We expect a steep decline, which seems unavoidable, especially since Nvidia is still unwilling to admit its exposure to crypto-mining demand.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: High Crypto-Mining Exposure Makes It A Sell In The Near Term</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: High Crypto-Mining Exposure Makes It A Sell In The Near Term\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 17:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502165-nvidia-high-crypto-mining-exposure-makes-it-a-sell-in-the-near-term><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in high-end GPU markets for the past half-decade is uncontested, but its golden age appears to pause with Ethereum's anticipated switch from Proof of Work ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502165-nvidia-high-crypto-mining-exposure-makes-it-a-sell-in-the-near-term\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4581":"高盛持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4543":"AI","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502165-nvidia-high-crypto-mining-exposure-makes-it-a-sell-in-the-near-term","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2228582913","content_text":"Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in high-end GPU markets for the past half-decade is uncontested, but its golden age appears to pause with Ethereum's anticipated switch from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. Proof of Work allows individuals to mine using GPUs and requires massive computing power. The new system is Proof of Stake, which follows a mechanism of processing transactions and creating new blocks inside a blockchain without the need for complex computations. The shift will eliminate the need to buy GPUs for crypto-mining. We believe Nvidia's management has understated its exposure to GPU sales in the crypto-mining market.We believe Nvidia is a sell with the firm conviction that the company will not be able to keep up with its high valuation. The recent 2022 Investor Day Presentation outlines a Total Addressable Market (TAM) narrative that forecasts increasing revenues. Our numbers show this TAM narrative is unlikely, at best. We estimate Ethereum's move to Proof of Stake will likely impact Nvidia a minimum of $500 million and up to $1billion in revenue. So, therefore, we believe Nvidia stock is at the risk of a significant sell-off before the market prices in the new market reality.What Nvidia's (not) telling youThe America-based semi giant has maintained leadership in manufacturing and designing computer graphic processors that operate through Graphics Processing Units (\"GPU\"). Like most semi-products, GPUs form an essential part of our lives, whether through computers, playstation5 graphics, or mining Ethereum in a blockchain. Indeed, Nvidia has a range of end markets it operates through: Gaming (45%), Data Centers (41%), Professional Visualization (8%), Automotive (2%), and Original Equipment Manufacturer (3%).Innovation and tech in all these sectors have consolidated a name for Nvidia, even more so now with the Omniverse, Hooper Data Center GPU, and Grace ARM-based CPU. However, the company's expected upcoming stock pullback is not a result technological shortcomings, but rather its lack of transparency with investors about their exposure to crypto-mining demand.The growth outlined in the GTC 2022 is based on outdated end-market demand and does well to tip-toe around Nvidia's affair with crypto-mining. Nvidia's earning presentations from the past 12 quarters fail to mention its exposure to GPU sales related to crypto-mining. We believe investors underestimate Nvidia's Crypto mining exposure at their peril.The link between Nvidia and Crypto mining is well establishedThe link between Nvidia and crypto mining is no secret. The only way to mine Ethereum had been through GPUs, and the best GPUs are from Nvidia. The two have been married in their rise and drop since 2017. So much so, that the Ethereum 2018 hash rate dip correlates with a drop in NVDA's stock for the fiscal year of 2019. We saw this again last year (2021), when the decline in cryptocurrency-related sales impacted Nvidia stock earlier this year, bringing about a 27% decline in January 2022.Nvidia has again slipped into the same position, and we know the secret of what's ahead. The following charts illustrate how Nvidia's stock price correlates to Ethereum's price.MacroAxisStock performanceNvidia's stock is another pandemic favorite. We witnessed the stock grow 223% since the pandemic's beginning around March 2020. Specifically, NVDA stock increased 122% in 2020, 125% in 2021, and YTD, the stock is down about 26%. We do not think the stock decline is done yet, since the expected revenue declines due to the waning of Crypto Mining are not priced in. Therefore, we expect another down leg from the current levels on the stock. The following chart illustrates Nvidia's performance over the last two years.YChartsYchartsYchartsValuationNvidia is richly valued. The stock is currently trading at around $218 per share. Nvidia is relatively expensive, trading at 15.3x EV/C2022 sales versus the peer group average of 5.1x. On a P/E basis, it is trading at 39.4x C2022 EPS of $5.53, versus the peer group average of 17.4x.Even adjusting for growth, we believe Nvidia is expensive. On a growth-adjusted basis, Nvidia is trading at 0.7x. We believe revenue and EPS estimates are at risk due to the impending slow-down in the crypto mining market. We believe NVDA's valuation is too high considering the imminent decline in crypto-mining demand and the negative shift in demand signals from the computer, consumer, and communications OEMs. The following chart illustrates Nvidia's peer group valuation.RefinitivWord on Wall StreetMarket consensus pushes for a strong buy on Nvidia stock, making up 81% of the sell-side ratings, with the remaining being neutral/hold rated on the stock. The overwhelming buy consensus is a natural result of investor confidence after Nvidia's GTC. The average price target on Nvidia is $338, while the median is around $350.We do not believe the sell-side is pricing in the demand slow-down from the crypto mining business. We think there is more downside on the stock than the market is pricing it in. The following chart illustrates the sell-side ratings, price targets, and upside potential.RefinitivWhat to do with the stockWe recommend investors sell NVDA at its current levels. Crypto-mining GPU demand and the pandemic did drive up revenues previously, but both are expected to be no longer factors in 2H22. We expect a steep decline, which seems unavoidable, especially since Nvidia is still unwilling to admit its exposure to crypto-mining demand.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037264163,"gmtCreate":1648120430783,"gmtModify":1676534306336,"author":{"id":"4095148120403180","authorId":"4095148120403180","authorIdStr":"4095148120403180","name":"Sushee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd50cc3533aae9d8211d4a66384b5f4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095148120403180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyhow","listText":"Anyhow","text":"Anyhow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037264163","repostId":"2221174430","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2221174430","pubTimestamp":1648136014,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221174430?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-24 23:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Want to Retire With $1 Million? Invest $250,000 in These Tech Stocks and Wait 10 Years (or Less)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221174430","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"By investing in businesses with strong competitive advantages, you can tap into growth that outpaces the market.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Even amid today's downturn, the stock market continues to offer a proven path to financial independence. Over the last decade, the <b>S&P 500</b> has generated a total return of 286%, meaning you could have tripled your money by simply investing in an exchange traded fund that tracks the popular index.</p><p>That said, greater rewards await savvy investors who are willing to research and build a diversified portfolio of individual stocks. For those interested in long-term growth, tech standouts <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUBS\">HubSpot</a></b> ( HUBS 3.21% ) and <b>Okta</b> ( OKTA -1.76% ) look like smart investments. Both have the potential to quadruple in value over the next 10 years, growing at a pace that would turn an initial investment of $250,000 split evenly between these stocks into a collective $1 million.</p><p>What makes these companies ready for such monster growth? Let's take a look.</p><h2>HubSpot: Customer relationship management</h2><p>HubSpot provides customer relationship management (CRM) software, offering tools that drive productivity across marketing, sales, customer service, and operations. The HubSpot app marketplace lists over 1,000 integrations that extend the functionality of its CRM suite, connecting with social media apps like <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a></b>' Instagram, commerce software like <b>Shopify</b>, and email systems like <b>Microsoft </b>( MSFT 1.64% ) Outlook.</p><p>Of course, HubSpot faces intense competition from other CRM vendors like <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>, </b>which generated 20 times more revenue than HubSpot over the last 12 months. But HubSpot's advantage lies in the quickly growing marketing automation space, where it holds nearly 34% market share. For context, the marketing automation industry was worth $3.6 billion in 2020, and is expected to grow threefold in the next five years. That edge could certainly help HubSpot grow over the next decade. But more immediately, this advantage in marketing automation gives HubSpot a foothold in the broader CRM industry, allowing the company to execute its land-and-expand growth strategy.</p><p>As of fourth quarter 2021, 60% of customers use multiple HubSpot products, compared to 34% in 2017. This uptick in adoption has translated into strong financial results. In 2021, revenue rose 47% to $1.3 billion, and the company generated free cash flow of $203.3 million, up from $79.1 million the year prior. Analysts believe there's even more room for HubSpot to grow: Brad Sills of <b>Bank of America</b> Securities ( BAC 3.13% ) puts HubSpot's addressable market at $87 billion.</p><p>To that end, HubSpot continues to innovate and expand its capabilities. Last year, it partnered with Stripe to launch HubSpot Payments, a tool that streamlines sales by enabling digital payments directly through its CRM platform. HubSpot also launched Operations Hub, a software product that helps operations teams sync data between applications and automate various business processes.</p><p>Here's the bottom line: HubSpot helps its clients provide a great consumer experience across the entire customer lifecycle. That value proposition resonates with businesses in virtually every industry. More importantly, HubSpot has achieved a strong competitive position, especially in marketing automation software, and that tailwind should be a growth driver in the years ahead. In fact, I think this $23 billion business could grow fourfold to $92 billion over the next decade.</p><h2>Okta: Cybersecurity</h2><p>Okta helps organizations protect sensitive applications and data. Its primary offering, Okta Identity Cloud, is a suite of identity and access management (IAM) tools that securely connects users to necessary technologies. Okta uses artificial intelligence to continuously analyze contextual signals (such as user, device, and location) to score the risk associated with each sign-in attempt. Following this formula, the platform only authenticates and authorizes appropriate users. Given the growing need for cybersecurity -- the number of Internet of Things cyberattacks alone is expected to double by 2025 -- this stock looks like a prime candidate for fourfold returns.</p><p>Okta's technology is highly versatile and addresses both workforce and customer identity use cases. Okta Identity Cloud integrates with over 7,000 different software products and infrastructure providers. Okta also provides developer tools that allow clients to incorporate Okta technology into other applications. Unlike rivals such as Microsoft, Okta is infrastructure-agnostic; its identity tools aren't associated with a specific cloud vendor and the company has no incentive to push clients toward particular technologies. This neutrality gives Okta a significant edge, spurring <b>Gartner </b>and <b>Forrester Research</b> to recognize the company as a leader in the IAM space.</p><p>Those accolades came alongside solid financial performance. In the past year, revenue soared 56% to $1.3 billion, and the company generated positive free cash flow of $87 million. This free cash flow represents a 22% drop compared to the year prior, due in large part to expenses associated with Okta's acquisition of Auth0. However, that acquisition strengthens Okta's position in the customer identity space. While Okta already had an impressive ecosystem of pre-built integrations, Auth0's developer tools make its easy to embed IAM solutions into any application, including consumer-facing ones.</p><p>Last year, Okta announced the launch of two new products: Identity Governance, which simplifies reporting and automates workflows, and Privileged Access, which ensures heightened protection of highly valuable accounts. Collectively, these new products will strengthen Okta's position in the workforce identity space, pushing the company's addressable market to $80 billion. Both products are set to launch in first quarter 2022, and management will report on progress later in the year. For now, though, these announcements highlight Okta's ambitious growth strategy and underscore its commitment to industry expansion.</p><p>In short, Okta has carved out a leadership position in the IAM industry, and through acquisition and innovation, management is working to strengthen that position. More broadly, cybersecurity will only become more critical as the number of connected devices continues to proliferate. That's why I think this growth stock -- which currently has a market cap of $27 billion -- could grow fourfold to $108 billion over the next decade.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Want to Retire With $1 Million? Invest $250,000 in These Tech Stocks and Wait 10 Years (or Less)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWant to Retire With $1 Million? Invest $250,000 in These Tech Stocks and Wait 10 Years (or Less)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-24 23:33 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/23/want-1-million-invest-250000-in-these-tech-stocks/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Even amid today's downturn, the stock market continues to offer a proven path to financial independence. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 has generated a total return of 286%, meaning you could have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/23/want-1-million-invest-250000-in-these-tech-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","MSFT":"微软","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","CRM":"赛富时","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","HUBS":"HubSpot","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","OKTA":"Okta Inc.","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4577":"网络游戏"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/23/want-1-million-invest-250000-in-these-tech-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2221174430","content_text":"Even amid today's downturn, the stock market continues to offer a proven path to financial independence. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 has generated a total return of 286%, meaning you could have tripled your money by simply investing in an exchange traded fund that tracks the popular index.That said, greater rewards await savvy investors who are willing to research and build a diversified portfolio of individual stocks. For those interested in long-term growth, tech standouts HubSpot ( HUBS 3.21% ) and Okta ( OKTA -1.76% ) look like smart investments. Both have the potential to quadruple in value over the next 10 years, growing at a pace that would turn an initial investment of $250,000 split evenly between these stocks into a collective $1 million.What makes these companies ready for such monster growth? Let's take a look.HubSpot: Customer relationship managementHubSpot provides customer relationship management (CRM) software, offering tools that drive productivity across marketing, sales, customer service, and operations. The HubSpot app marketplace lists over 1,000 integrations that extend the functionality of its CRM suite, connecting with social media apps like Meta Platforms' Instagram, commerce software like Shopify, and email systems like Microsoft ( MSFT 1.64% ) Outlook.Of course, HubSpot faces intense competition from other CRM vendors like Salesforce, which generated 20 times more revenue than HubSpot over the last 12 months. But HubSpot's advantage lies in the quickly growing marketing automation space, where it holds nearly 34% market share. For context, the marketing automation industry was worth $3.6 billion in 2020, and is expected to grow threefold in the next five years. That edge could certainly help HubSpot grow over the next decade. But more immediately, this advantage in marketing automation gives HubSpot a foothold in the broader CRM industry, allowing the company to execute its land-and-expand growth strategy.As of fourth quarter 2021, 60% of customers use multiple HubSpot products, compared to 34% in 2017. This uptick in adoption has translated into strong financial results. In 2021, revenue rose 47% to $1.3 billion, and the company generated free cash flow of $203.3 million, up from $79.1 million the year prior. Analysts believe there's even more room for HubSpot to grow: Brad Sills of Bank of America Securities ( BAC 3.13% ) puts HubSpot's addressable market at $87 billion.To that end, HubSpot continues to innovate and expand its capabilities. Last year, it partnered with Stripe to launch HubSpot Payments, a tool that streamlines sales by enabling digital payments directly through its CRM platform. HubSpot also launched Operations Hub, a software product that helps operations teams sync data between applications and automate various business processes.Here's the bottom line: HubSpot helps its clients provide a great consumer experience across the entire customer lifecycle. That value proposition resonates with businesses in virtually every industry. More importantly, HubSpot has achieved a strong competitive position, especially in marketing automation software, and that tailwind should be a growth driver in the years ahead. In fact, I think this $23 billion business could grow fourfold to $92 billion over the next decade.Okta: CybersecurityOkta helps organizations protect sensitive applications and data. Its primary offering, Okta Identity Cloud, is a suite of identity and access management (IAM) tools that securely connects users to necessary technologies. Okta uses artificial intelligence to continuously analyze contextual signals (such as user, device, and location) to score the risk associated with each sign-in attempt. Following this formula, the platform only authenticates and authorizes appropriate users. Given the growing need for cybersecurity -- the number of Internet of Things cyberattacks alone is expected to double by 2025 -- this stock looks like a prime candidate for fourfold returns.Okta's technology is highly versatile and addresses both workforce and customer identity use cases. Okta Identity Cloud integrates with over 7,000 different software products and infrastructure providers. Okta also provides developer tools that allow clients to incorporate Okta technology into other applications. Unlike rivals such as Microsoft, Okta is infrastructure-agnostic; its identity tools aren't associated with a specific cloud vendor and the company has no incentive to push clients toward particular technologies. This neutrality gives Okta a significant edge, spurring Gartner and Forrester Research to recognize the company as a leader in the IAM space.Those accolades came alongside solid financial performance. In the past year, revenue soared 56% to $1.3 billion, and the company generated positive free cash flow of $87 million. This free cash flow represents a 22% drop compared to the year prior, due in large part to expenses associated with Okta's acquisition of Auth0. However, that acquisition strengthens Okta's position in the customer identity space. While Okta already had an impressive ecosystem of pre-built integrations, Auth0's developer tools make its easy to embed IAM solutions into any application, including consumer-facing ones.Last year, Okta announced the launch of two new products: Identity Governance, which simplifies reporting and automates workflows, and Privileged Access, which ensures heightened protection of highly valuable accounts. Collectively, these new products will strengthen Okta's position in the workforce identity space, pushing the company's addressable market to $80 billion. Both products are set to launch in first quarter 2022, and management will report on progress later in the year. For now, though, these announcements highlight Okta's ambitious growth strategy and underscore its commitment to industry expansion.In short, Okta has carved out a leadership position in the IAM industry, and through acquisition and innovation, management is working to strengthen that position. More broadly, cybersecurity will only become more critical as the number of connected devices continues to proliferate. That's why I think this growth stock -- which currently has a market cap of $27 billion -- could grow fourfold to $108 billion over the next decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9037264163,"gmtCreate":1648120430783,"gmtModify":1676534306336,"author":{"id":"4095148120403180","authorId":"4095148120403180","authorIdStr":"4095148120403180","name":"Sushee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd50cc3533aae9d8211d4a66384b5f4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095148120403180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyhow","listText":"Anyhow","text":"Anyhow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037264163","repostId":"2221174430","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086666081,"gmtCreate":1650450556379,"gmtModify":1676534726540,"author":{"id":"4095148120403180","authorId":"4095148120403180","authorIdStr":"4095148120403180","name":"Sushee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd50cc3533aae9d8211d4a66384b5f4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095148120403180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ask us to sell and y'all gonna buy ?","listText":"Ask us to sell and y'all gonna buy ?","text":"Ask us to sell and y'all gonna buy ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086666081","repostId":"2228582913","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2228582913","pubTimestamp":1650447329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2228582913?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 17:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: High Crypto-Mining Exposure Makes It A Sell In The Near Term","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2228582913","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in high-end GPU markets for the past half-decade is unc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in high-end GPU markets for the past half-decade is uncontested, but its golden age appears to pause with Ethereum's anticipated switch from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. Proof of Work allows individuals to mine using GPUs and requires massive computing power. The new system is Proof of Stake, which follows a mechanism of processing transactions and creating new blocks inside a blockchain without the need for complex computations. The shift will eliminate the need to buy GPUs for crypto-mining. We believe Nvidia's management has understated its exposure to GPU sales in the crypto-mining market.</p><p>We believe Nvidia is a sell with the firm conviction that the company will not be able to keep up with its high valuation. The recent 2022 Investor Day Presentation outlines a Total Addressable Market (TAM) narrative that forecasts increasing revenues. Our numbers show this TAM narrative is unlikely, at best. We estimate Ethereum's move to Proof of Stake will likely impact Nvidia a minimum of $500 million and up to $1billion in revenue. So, therefore, we believe Nvidia stock is at the risk of a significant sell-off before the market prices in the new market reality.</p><h2><b>What Nvidia's (not) telling you</b></h2><p>The America-based semi giant has maintained leadership in manufacturing and designing computer graphic processors that operate through Graphics Processing Units ("GPU"). Like most semi-products, GPUs form an essential part of our lives, whether through computers, playstation5 graphics, or mining Ethereum in a blockchain. Indeed, Nvidia has a range of end markets it operates through: Gaming (45%), Data Centers (41%), Professional Visualization (8%), Automotive (2%), and Original Equipment Manufacturer (3%).</p><p>Innovation and tech in all these sectors have consolidated a name for Nvidia, even more so now with the Omniverse, Hooper Data Center GPU, and Grace ARM-based CPU. However, the company's expected upcoming stock pullback is not a result technological shortcomings, but rather its lack of transparency with investors about their exposure to crypto-mining demand.</p><p>The growth outlined in the GTC 2022 is based on outdated end-market demand and does well to tip-toe around Nvidia's affair with crypto-mining. Nvidia's earning presentations from the past 12 quarters fail to mention its exposure to GPU sales related to crypto-mining. We believe investors underestimate Nvidia's Crypto mining exposure at their peril.</p><h2><b>The link between Nvidia and Crypto mining is well established</b></h2><p>The link between Nvidia and crypto mining is no secret. The only way to mine Ethereum had been through GPUs, and the best GPUs are from Nvidia. The two have been married in their rise and drop since 2017. So much so, that the Ethereum 2018 hash rate dip correlates with a drop in NVDA's stock for the fiscal year of 2019. We saw this again last year (2021), when the decline in cryptocurrency-related sales impacted Nvidia stock earlier this year, bringing about a 27% decline in January 2022.</p><p>Nvidia has again slipped into the same position, and we know the secret of what's ahead. The following charts illustrate how Nvidia's stock price correlates to Ethereum's price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1249842febd4128cf317401ff809813\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>MacroAxis</p><h2><b>Stock performance</b></h2><p>Nvidia's stock is another pandemic favorite. We witnessed the stock grow 223% since the pandemic's beginning around March 2020. Specifically, NVDA stock increased 122% in 2020, 125% in 2021, and YTD, the stock is down about 26%. We do not think the stock decline is done yet, since the expected revenue declines due to the waning of Crypto Mining are not priced in. Therefore, we expect another down leg from the current levels on the stock. The following chart illustrates Nvidia's performance over the last two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6030f950931b3c004e6b34356f73a29a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Ycharts</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef85ebf29bd92fe80d8451817870f1db\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><h2><b>Valuation</b></h2><p>Nvidia is richly valued. The stock is currently trading at around $218 per share. Nvidia is relatively expensive, trading at 15.3x EV/C2022 sales versus the peer group average of 5.1x. On a P/E basis, it is trading at 39.4x C2022 EPS of $5.53, versus the peer group average of 17.4x.</p><p>Even adjusting for growth, we believe Nvidia is expensive. On a growth-adjusted basis, Nvidia is trading at 0.7x. We believe revenue and EPS estimates are at risk due to the impending slow-down in the crypto mining market. We believe NVDA's valuation is too high considering the imminent decline in crypto-mining demand and the negative shift in demand signals from the computer, consumer, and communications OEMs. The following chart illustrates Nvidia's peer group valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a72e7ba84017776aaf565cbd076c700f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Refinitiv</p><h2><b>Word on Wall Street</b></h2><p>Market consensus pushes for a strong buy on Nvidia stock, making up 81% of the sell-side ratings, with the remaining being neutral/hold rated on the stock. The overwhelming buy consensus is a natural result of investor confidence after Nvidia's GTC. The average price target on Nvidia is $338, while the median is around $350.</p><p>We do not believe the sell-side is pricing in the demand slow-down from the crypto mining business. We think there is more downside on the stock than the market is pricing it in. The following chart illustrates the sell-side ratings, price targets, and upside potential.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62362c582546dfe78faebc1eb04a5ad6\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Refinitiv</p><h2><b>What to do with the stock</b></h2><p>We recommend investors sell NVDA at its current levels. Crypto-mining GPU demand and the pandemic did drive up revenues previously, but both are expected to be no longer factors in 2H22. We expect a steep decline, which seems unavoidable, especially since Nvidia is still unwilling to admit its exposure to crypto-mining demand.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: High Crypto-Mining Exposure Makes It A Sell In The Near Term</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: High Crypto-Mining Exposure Makes It A Sell In The Near Term\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 17:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502165-nvidia-high-crypto-mining-exposure-makes-it-a-sell-in-the-near-term><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in high-end GPU markets for the past half-decade is uncontested, but its golden age appears to pause with Ethereum's anticipated switch from Proof of Work ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502165-nvidia-high-crypto-mining-exposure-makes-it-a-sell-in-the-near-term\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4581":"高盛持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4543":"AI","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502165-nvidia-high-crypto-mining-exposure-makes-it-a-sell-in-the-near-term","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2228582913","content_text":"Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) dominance in high-end GPU markets for the past half-decade is uncontested, but its golden age appears to pause with Ethereum's anticipated switch from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. Proof of Work allows individuals to mine using GPUs and requires massive computing power. The new system is Proof of Stake, which follows a mechanism of processing transactions and creating new blocks inside a blockchain without the need for complex computations. The shift will eliminate the need to buy GPUs for crypto-mining. We believe Nvidia's management has understated its exposure to GPU sales in the crypto-mining market.We believe Nvidia is a sell with the firm conviction that the company will not be able to keep up with its high valuation. The recent 2022 Investor Day Presentation outlines a Total Addressable Market (TAM) narrative that forecasts increasing revenues. Our numbers show this TAM narrative is unlikely, at best. We estimate Ethereum's move to Proof of Stake will likely impact Nvidia a minimum of $500 million and up to $1billion in revenue. So, therefore, we believe Nvidia stock is at the risk of a significant sell-off before the market prices in the new market reality.What Nvidia's (not) telling youThe America-based semi giant has maintained leadership in manufacturing and designing computer graphic processors that operate through Graphics Processing Units (\"GPU\"). Like most semi-products, GPUs form an essential part of our lives, whether through computers, playstation5 graphics, or mining Ethereum in a blockchain. Indeed, Nvidia has a range of end markets it operates through: Gaming (45%), Data Centers (41%), Professional Visualization (8%), Automotive (2%), and Original Equipment Manufacturer (3%).Innovation and tech in all these sectors have consolidated a name for Nvidia, even more so now with the Omniverse, Hooper Data Center GPU, and Grace ARM-based CPU. However, the company's expected upcoming stock pullback is not a result technological shortcomings, but rather its lack of transparency with investors about their exposure to crypto-mining demand.The growth outlined in the GTC 2022 is based on outdated end-market demand and does well to tip-toe around Nvidia's affair with crypto-mining. Nvidia's earning presentations from the past 12 quarters fail to mention its exposure to GPU sales related to crypto-mining. We believe investors underestimate Nvidia's Crypto mining exposure at their peril.The link between Nvidia and Crypto mining is well establishedThe link between Nvidia and crypto mining is no secret. The only way to mine Ethereum had been through GPUs, and the best GPUs are from Nvidia. The two have been married in their rise and drop since 2017. So much so, that the Ethereum 2018 hash rate dip correlates with a drop in NVDA's stock for the fiscal year of 2019. We saw this again last year (2021), when the decline in cryptocurrency-related sales impacted Nvidia stock earlier this year, bringing about a 27% decline in January 2022.Nvidia has again slipped into the same position, and we know the secret of what's ahead. The following charts illustrate how Nvidia's stock price correlates to Ethereum's price.MacroAxisStock performanceNvidia's stock is another pandemic favorite. We witnessed the stock grow 223% since the pandemic's beginning around March 2020. Specifically, NVDA stock increased 122% in 2020, 125% in 2021, and YTD, the stock is down about 26%. We do not think the stock decline is done yet, since the expected revenue declines due to the waning of Crypto Mining are not priced in. Therefore, we expect another down leg from the current levels on the stock. The following chart illustrates Nvidia's performance over the last two years.YChartsYchartsYchartsValuationNvidia is richly valued. The stock is currently trading at around $218 per share. Nvidia is relatively expensive, trading at 15.3x EV/C2022 sales versus the peer group average of 5.1x. On a P/E basis, it is trading at 39.4x C2022 EPS of $5.53, versus the peer group average of 17.4x.Even adjusting for growth, we believe Nvidia is expensive. On a growth-adjusted basis, Nvidia is trading at 0.7x. We believe revenue and EPS estimates are at risk due to the impending slow-down in the crypto mining market. We believe NVDA's valuation is too high considering the imminent decline in crypto-mining demand and the negative shift in demand signals from the computer, consumer, and communications OEMs. The following chart illustrates Nvidia's peer group valuation.RefinitivWord on Wall StreetMarket consensus pushes for a strong buy on Nvidia stock, making up 81% of the sell-side ratings, with the remaining being neutral/hold rated on the stock. The overwhelming buy consensus is a natural result of investor confidence after Nvidia's GTC. The average price target on Nvidia is $338, while the median is around $350.We do not believe the sell-side is pricing in the demand slow-down from the crypto mining business. We think there is more downside on the stock than the market is pricing it in. The following chart illustrates the sell-side ratings, price targets, and upside potential.RefinitivWhat to do with the stockWe recommend investors sell NVDA at its current levels. Crypto-mining GPU demand and the pandemic did drive up revenues previously, but both are expected to be no longer factors in 2H22. We expect a steep decline, which seems unavoidable, especially since Nvidia is still unwilling to admit its exposure to crypto-mining demand.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
