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Doraemi
2022-07-16
$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$
hai
Doraemi
2022-07-14
$納指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
k
Doraemi
2022-07-10
$ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF(BITI)$
gg
Doraemi
2022-07-04
$Bakkt Holdings, Inc.(BKKT)$
kk
Doraemi
2022-06-29
$納指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
ccc
Doraemi
2022-06-27
$ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF(BITI)$
k
Doraemi
2022-06-17
$Meta Platforms(META)$
LOL
Doraemi
2022-06-16
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$
gg
Doraemi
2022-06-14
$Shopify Inc(SHOP)$
hold
Doraemi
2022-06-13
$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$
ko
Doraemi
2022-06-11
$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$
Use
Doraemi
2022-06-10
$Adobe(ADBE)$
app
Doraemi
2022-06-07
$納指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
gg
Doraemi
2022-06-04
$Pool Corporation(POOL)$
👌yahoo
Doraemi
2022-05-27
$Bakkt Holdings, Inc.(BKKT)$
kl
Doraemi
2022-05-25
$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$
ga
Doraemi
2022-05-17
Y
外媒头条 | 伯南克称美联储对通胀反应迟缓是个错误
Doraemi
2022-05-10
$SEA LTD(SE)$
kk
Doraemi
2022-05-02
$iShares MSCI China Multisector Tech ETF(TCHI)$
yahoo
Doraemi
2022-04-24
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$
LOL
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Inc.(CHPT)$ga","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b53d9045c86257cdb501a63e57dcffc","width":"750","height":"1759"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022984346","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029813279,"gmtCreate":1652752461291,"gmtModify":1676535155244,"author":{"id":"4095304727445630","authorId":"4095304727445630","name":"Doraemi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c43206723220f2f2a9d8e027811291","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Y","listText":"Y","text":"Y","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029813279","repostId":"2236592912","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236592912","pubTimestamp":1652736851,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2236592912?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-17 05:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条 | 伯南克称美联储对通胀反应迟缓是个错误","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236592912","media":"环球市场播报","summary":" 美联储前主席本-伯南克表示，美联储在解决通胀问题时反应迟缓犯了错误。高通胀问题已发展成为自1980年代初以来最严重的事件。 伯南克曾指导美联储度过了2008年金融危机并实行了前所未有的货币政策扩张，他表示，何时应该采取行动抑制通胀的问题“很复杂”。 在经济从危机中复苏之后，美联储保持了历史性的宽松政策。与此同时，美国经济面临着以8.3%的速度运行的高通胀。 伯南克表示，他理解鲍威尔联储等待的原因。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、伯南克：美联储对通胀反应迟缓“是个错误”</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>2、欧盟外长会未能就新一轮对俄制裁达成共识</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>3、OPEC+部长们表示增产原油并不能缓解汽油价格压力</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>4、纽约联储行长：加息料将导致美债市场流动性恶化 波动性变大</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>5、欧盟：企业在不违反对俄制裁的情况下可以购买俄罗斯天然气</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>6、马斯克称不排除以更低价收购推特</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3e8c8a73236bd23c25740e65138c07\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>伯南克：美联储对通胀反应迟缓“是个错误”</b></p><p>美联储前主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）表示，美联储在解决通胀问题时反应迟缓犯了错误。高通胀问题已发展成为自1980年代初以来最严重的事件。</p><p>伯南克曾指导美联储度过了2008年金融危机并实行了前所未有的货币政策扩张，他表示，何时应该采取行动抑制通胀的问题“很复杂”。</p><p>“问题是他们为什么要推迟……他们为什么延迟做出回应？我认为如果回想起来的话，是的，这是一个错误，”他在周一播出的媒体采访中表示，“而且我认为他们同意这是一个错误。”</p><p>在经济从危机中复苏之后，美联储保持了历史性的宽松政策。现在，美联储正在积极收紧政策，但面临各方批评，即它等了太久才进行政策紧缩。与此同时，美国经济面临着以8.3%的速度运行的高通胀。</p><p>伯南克表示，他理解鲍威尔联储等待的原因。</p><p>“其中一个原因是他们不想冲击市场，”他说。“在2013年的缩减恐慌（Taper Tantrum）期间，鲍威尔是我的董事会成员，那是一次非常不愉快的经历。他想通过给人们尽可能多的警告来避免这种事情。因此，渐进主义是美联储没有在2021年中期对通胀压力做出更快反应的几个原因之一。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed346eaa39fa3ac51da37621ffde98a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>欧盟外长会未能就新一轮对俄制裁达成共识</b></p><p>当地时间16日，欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表博雷利表示，欧盟成员国外长当天继续就对俄实施包括石油禁运在内的新一轮制裁进行磋商，但各方存在分歧，未能达成共识。</p><p>博雷利说，接下来，27个成员国驻欧盟大使将继续就此问题进行讨论。</p><p>欧盟委员会在本月初提交了第六轮对俄罗斯制裁措施提案，其中包括今年年底前全面禁止进口俄石油。按照欧盟规则，欧委会的提案需得到27个成员国一致同意才能生效，但匈牙利、斯洛伐克等国强烈反对在石油领域制裁俄罗斯。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0f7b145c9f143c1b9d68b31112032ea\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>OPEC+部长们表示增产原油并不能缓解汽油价格压力</b></p><p>沙特能源大臣表示，炼油产能不足意味着即使主要石油出口国增加原油产量，汽油和其他石油产品也将依然很贵。</p><p>Abdulaziz bin Salman亲王重申存在“任何生产商都无法解决的实际障碍”之际，汽油和柴油价格飙升加剧了通货膨胀压力，导致全球生活成本危机进一步恶化。与此同时，尽管来自联盟成员国俄罗斯的石油出口受到国际抵制，OPEC+依然坚持适度增加供应，已经激怒了美国议员。</p><p>“没有与当前需求和预计的夏季需求相称的炼油产能，”这位能源大臣周一在巴林的能源会议上表示。</p><p>Abdulaziz亲王的言论得到了巴林石油大臣Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Bin Ahmed的呼应，后者说，OPEC及其合作伙伴可能会继续每月增产43.2万桶。</p><p>“没有新的产能到来，”他在同一场活动上说。“即使你生产更多的原油，也没人要，没有更多的炼油厂。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e041722c0a8b3188f2501114b0f2fc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>纽约联储行长：加息料将导致美债市场流动性恶化 波动性变大</b></p><p>纽约联邦储备银行行长John Williams表示，鉴于货币政策收紧以及由此引发的波动性上升，金融市场流动性料将恶化。</p><p>Williams周一在纽约举行的抵押贷款银行家协会会议期间表示，“全球环境下存在很多不确定性，发生了很多事件。我们也看到明确的趋势显示我们的行动正在推动货币政策朝着更正常的利率方向发展，我认为部分的波动实际上是反映美国国债市场正在消化一些信息，”</p><p>他表示，美国国债市场流动性出现恶化迹象，例如买卖价差扩大，“或多或少与市场波动率的上升一致”，“我没有看到美国国债市场出现功能失调的迹象。”</p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔在上次货币政策会议后的记者会上表示，美联储准备在6月和7月继续实施幅度50基点的加息。</p><p>Williams周一表示，随着美联储在今年将利率“迅速调整到更正常的水平”，这样的计划是“合理的”，第一要务是压低通胀。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bbc29f911274abd402b0192ab89cbcb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>欧盟：企业在不违反对俄制裁的情况下可以购买俄罗斯天然气</b></p><p>欧盟表示，欧盟天然气进口商可以继续为俄罗斯的燃料支付费用，不会违反对莫斯科的制裁。</p><p>欧盟一位发言人周一称， 欧盟委员会上周五将修订后的指导意见发给了成员国。在更新后的指引中，欧盟表示，各家企业应该明确声明，一旦支付了欧元或美元款项，企业认为自己已经履行了义务。</p><p>知情人士称，欧盟的制裁“并不阻止相关运营商根据气态天然气供应合同在指定银行开立特定货币的支付账户，运营商应该明确声明他们计划履行现有合同义务，并认为他们的付款义务已经通过支付欧元或美元得以完成，和现有合同是不相悖的”。</p><p>该指引并不阻止企业在俄罗斯天然气工业银行开立账户，而且会允许他们在遵守欧盟制裁规定的情况下从俄罗斯购买天然气，但指引中没有对俄罗斯提出的开设卢布账户的要求提出解决方案。俄罗斯总统普京称开设卢布账户是完成支付的前提条件。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55c69554c790958f4ae513d9714024f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>马斯克称不排除以更低价收购推特</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）引发了他可能寻求重新谈判收购社交媒体平台推特（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>）的猜测，表示不排除以更低价收购该公司。</p><p>马斯克周一在迈阿密的一次技术会议上表示，以更低的价格达成可行的交易并非“不可能”。推特股价闻讯一度下跌8.1%。</p><p>由于担心马斯克可能会放弃440亿美元收购推特，该股一直在下跌。过去一周，随着马斯克质疑推特公开披露的关于其社交媒体服务上垃圾邮件和虚假账户百分比的数据，这种担忧有所增加。</p><p>马斯克周一进一步强调了这一点，他预计虚假账户至少占所有推特账户的20%。推特对此拒绝置评。</p><p>在马斯克上周五发推文称收购交易被搁置、直到他发现有关虚假账户更多细节以及在平台上的普遍程度后，推特股票抛售加速。</p><p>推特股价当前已回吐马斯克披露持股以来的所有涨幅，且远低于他的收购报价。一种理论是，马斯克试图通过提出虚假账户问题来为推特支付更低的收购价格。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条 | 伯南克称美联储对通胀反应迟缓是个错误</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条 | 伯南克称美联储对通胀反应迟缓是个错误\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-17 05:34 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-17/doc-imcwiwst7803617.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、伯南克：美联储对通胀反应迟缓“是个错误”2、欧盟外长会未能就新一轮对俄制裁达成共识3、OPEC+部长们表示增产原油并不能缓解汽油价格压力4、纽约联储行长：加息料将导致美债市场流动性恶化 波动性变大5、欧盟：企业在不违反对俄制裁的情况下可以购买俄罗斯天然气6、马斯克称不排除以更低价收购推特伯南克：美联储对通胀反应迟缓“是个错误”美联储前主席本-伯南克...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-17/doc-imcwiwst7803617.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3e8c8a73236bd23c25740e65138c07","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-05-17/doc-imcwiwst7803617.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236592912","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、伯南克：美联储对通胀反应迟缓“是个错误”2、欧盟外长会未能就新一轮对俄制裁达成共识3、OPEC+部长们表示增产原油并不能缓解汽油价格压力4、纽约联储行长：加息料将导致美债市场流动性恶化 波动性变大5、欧盟：企业在不违反对俄制裁的情况下可以购买俄罗斯天然气6、马斯克称不排除以更低价收购推特伯南克：美联储对通胀反应迟缓“是个错误”美联储前主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）表示，美联储在解决通胀问题时反应迟缓犯了错误。高通胀问题已发展成为自1980年代初以来最严重的事件。伯南克曾指导美联储度过了2008年金融危机并实行了前所未有的货币政策扩张，他表示，何时应该采取行动抑制通胀的问题“很复杂”。“问题是他们为什么要推迟……他们为什么延迟做出回应？我认为如果回想起来的话，是的，这是一个错误，”他在周一播出的媒体采访中表示，“而且我认为他们同意这是一个错误。”在经济从危机中复苏之后，美联储保持了历史性的宽松政策。现在，美联储正在积极收紧政策，但面临各方批评，即它等了太久才进行政策紧缩。与此同时，美国经济面临着以8.3%的速度运行的高通胀。伯南克表示，他理解鲍威尔联储等待的原因。“其中一个原因是他们不想冲击市场，”他说。“在2013年的缩减恐慌（Taper Tantrum）期间，鲍威尔是我的董事会成员，那是一次非常不愉快的经历。他想通过给人们尽可能多的警告来避免这种事情。因此，渐进主义是美联储没有在2021年中期对通胀压力做出更快反应的几个原因之一。”欧盟外长会未能就新一轮对俄制裁达成共识当地时间16日，欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表博雷利表示，欧盟成员国外长当天继续就对俄实施包括石油禁运在内的新一轮制裁进行磋商，但各方存在分歧，未能达成共识。博雷利说，接下来，27个成员国驻欧盟大使将继续就此问题进行讨论。欧盟委员会在本月初提交了第六轮对俄罗斯制裁措施提案，其中包括今年年底前全面禁止进口俄石油。按照欧盟规则，欧委会的提案需得到27个成员国一致同意才能生效，但匈牙利、斯洛伐克等国强烈反对在石油领域制裁俄罗斯。OPEC+部长们表示增产原油并不能缓解汽油价格压力沙特能源大臣表示，炼油产能不足意味着即使主要石油出口国增加原油产量，汽油和其他石油产品也将依然很贵。Abdulaziz bin Salman亲王重申存在“任何生产商都无法解决的实际障碍”之际，汽油和柴油价格飙升加剧了通货膨胀压力，导致全球生活成本危机进一步恶化。与此同时，尽管来自联盟成员国俄罗斯的石油出口受到国际抵制，OPEC+依然坚持适度增加供应，已经激怒了美国议员。“没有与当前需求和预计的夏季需求相称的炼油产能，”这位能源大臣周一在巴林的能源会议上表示。Abdulaziz亲王的言论得到了巴林石油大臣Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Bin Ahmed的呼应，后者说，OPEC及其合作伙伴可能会继续每月增产43.2万桶。“没有新的产能到来，”他在同一场活动上说。“即使你生产更多的原油，也没人要，没有更多的炼油厂。”纽约联储行长：加息料将导致美债市场流动性恶化 波动性变大纽约联邦储备银行行长John Williams表示，鉴于货币政策收紧以及由此引发的波动性上升，金融市场流动性料将恶化。Williams周一在纽约举行的抵押贷款银行家协会会议期间表示，“全球环境下存在很多不确定性，发生了很多事件。我们也看到明确的趋势显示我们的行动正在推动货币政策朝着更正常的利率方向发展，我认为部分的波动实际上是反映美国国债市场正在消化一些信息，”他表示，美国国债市场流动性出现恶化迹象，例如买卖价差扩大，“或多或少与市场波动率的上升一致”，“我没有看到美国国债市场出现功能失调的迹象。”美联储主席鲍威尔在上次货币政策会议后的记者会上表示，美联储准备在6月和7月继续实施幅度50基点的加息。Williams周一表示，随着美联储在今年将利率“迅速调整到更正常的水平”，这样的计划是“合理的”，第一要务是压低通胀。欧盟：企业在不违反对俄制裁的情况下可以购买俄罗斯天然气欧盟表示，欧盟天然气进口商可以继续为俄罗斯的燃料支付费用，不会违反对莫斯科的制裁。欧盟一位发言人周一称， 欧盟委员会上周五将修订后的指导意见发给了成员国。在更新后的指引中，欧盟表示，各家企业应该明确声明，一旦支付了欧元或美元款项，企业认为自己已经履行了义务。知情人士称，欧盟的制裁“并不阻止相关运营商根据气态天然气供应合同在指定银行开立特定货币的支付账户，运营商应该明确声明他们计划履行现有合同义务，并认为他们的付款义务已经通过支付欧元或美元得以完成，和现有合同是不相悖的”。该指引并不阻止企业在俄罗斯天然气工业银行开立账户，而且会允许他们在遵守欧盟制裁规定的情况下从俄罗斯购买天然气，但指引中没有对俄罗斯提出的开设卢布账户的要求提出解决方案。俄罗斯总统普京称开设卢布账户是完成支付的前提条件。马斯克称不排除以更低价收购推特特斯拉CEO埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）引发了他可能寻求重新谈判收购社交媒体平台推特（Twitter）的猜测，表示不排除以更低价收购该公司。马斯克周一在迈阿密的一次技术会议上表示，以更低的价格达成可行的交易并非“不可能”。推特股价闻讯一度下跌8.1%。由于担心马斯克可能会放弃440亿美元收购推特，该股一直在下跌。过去一周，随着马斯克质疑推特公开披露的关于其社交媒体服务上垃圾邮件和虚假账户百分比的数据，这种担忧有所增加。马斯克周一进一步强调了这一点，他预计虚假账户至少占所有推特账户的20%。推特对此拒绝置评。在马斯克上周五发推文称收购交易被搁置、直到他发现有关虚假账户更多细节以及在平台上的普遍程度后，推特股票抛售加速。推特股价当前已回吐马斯克披露持股以来的所有涨幅，且远低于他的收购报价。一种理论是，马斯克试图通过提出虚假账户问题来为推特支付更低的收购价格。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065856468,"gmtCreate":1652175800854,"gmtModify":1676535046079,"author":{"id":"4095304727445630","authorId":"4095304727445630","name":"Doraemi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10c43206723220f2f2a9d8e027811291","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>kk","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>kk","text":"$SEA 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07:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果供应链TOP200有喜有忧，果链神话要靠造车续写？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2194210074","media":"价值研究所","summary":"苹果造车，能否创造另一条黄金产业链？","content":"<p>上周，A股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>产业链概念板块连日走高。其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603626\">科森科技</a>录得三连涨，22日一度涨停，截止当日收盘封单资金达6200万，同日苹果产业链概念板块涨幅也逼近3%。</p>\n<p>作为国内唯一一家苹果金属件直接供应商，进入“果链”多年的科森科技在年底迎来一波爆发，是苹果强大市场号召力的直接体现。在缺席一年之后，苹果TOP 200供应商名单在今年年中回归，更是为投资者提供了了解各家企业发展的绝佳途径。</p>\n<p>虽然都说“果链”的含金量在消退，苹果对供应链企业的极端控制反作用越来越明显，但加入“果链”仍是许多上下游零部件、代工企业提升自身价值的重要方式。借助今年这份最新名单，我们或许可以好好看看，“果链”的造富神话，到底还能延续多长时间。</p>\n<h2><b>藏在“TOP 200”里的千亿巨头</b></h2>\n<p>由于去年缺席一年，所以苹果今年年中公布的TOP200名单针对的是2020年供应商的表现。和2019年的名单相比，苹果在2020纳入了更多中国供应商。<b>数据显示，中国大陆共有12家厂商被纳入苹果TOP200名单，是新纳入厂商最多的地区；中国香港和中国台湾地区也有多家新鲜上榜的供应商。</b></p>\n<p>也有媒体统计称，如果算上主体业务、生产线已经搬到大陆地区的港资企业，中国大陆+中国香港地区上榜的供应商数量达到48家，成为上榜厂商最多的地区，超过了美国的38家、日本的33家。当然，这份2020年的榜单存在一些滞后性，比如今年已经被剔出苹果供应链<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002456\">欧菲光</a>，就依然在列。但总体来说，中国大陆企业的实力还是得到了更高的肯定，在苹果供应链里里的地位也在逐渐上升。</p>\n<p>再者，从完整名单来看，虽然苹果TOP 200供应商里有大量大家耳熟能详的国外巨头，如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、LG等。但国内的一众上榜厂商，同样不乏实力派、潜力股。在苹果这颗参天大树的庇荫下，不少供应商正创造了属于自己的增长奇迹。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62bd1ddb3095dd628e689642165a611a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">（图片来自UNsplash）</p>\n<p>在价值研究所（ID：jiazhiyanjiusuo）看来，“果链”的造富神话惠及了一大批核心供应商。要按崛起时间、核心业务等维度进行划分的话，我们可以将主要苹果TOP200榜单里的国内供应商分别两个阵营：老巨头和潜力股。</p>\n<h3><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">立讯精密</a>&<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002241\">歌尔股份</a>：增长神话未完待续</b></h3>\n<p><b>前一个阵营，有两个杰出代表——进入“果链”多年，一直备受苹果器重的长期合作伙伴歌尔股份和立讯精密。</b></p>\n<p>其中，歌尔股份最初是靠供应扬声器、受话器等零部件发家，而后切入中游精密零组件和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>硬件业务；立讯精密相信大家都十分熟悉，主要为苹果供应电声器件和连接器，因为业务和苹果高度绑定一度被业内人士赋予“苹果代工厂”的称号。</p>\n<p>可以看出，这两家供应商的主营业务，恰好覆盖苹果手机、PC、智能穿戴等全系列消费电子产品的各个核心零部件，是苹果这艘巨型航母得以顺利运转的重要组成部分。也正是得益于苹果提供的大量订单和“果链”的光环，歌尔和立讯这两大主要供应商也在过去十多年积累了深厚的家底。</p>\n<p>截止上周五收盘，歌尔股份的市值达到1840亿，立讯精密市值更是高达3431亿，和进入“果链”前相比有天壤之别。从营收增速来看，“果链”加诸立讯、歌尔身上的魔法也尚未消失。上一财年，立讯精密营收925亿，同比大增48%。数据显示，自上市以来，立讯的营收在10年间暴涨60倍，已然成为中小板市值之王。</p>\n<p>歌尔股份的增长速度也不遑多让。根据10月底发布的2021财年三季度报，歌尔今年前三个季度总营收为527.89亿元，同比增幅达到52%，归属上市公司股东净利润更是同比激增65.28%至33亿。据统计，歌尔股份今年前三季度的营收增速和净利润增速都保持在较高水平，尤其是净利润在今年第一季度同比暴涨228.41%，可见其增速之快。</p>\n<p>歌尔和立讯是较早阶段便加入“果链”的供应商，和苹果合作多年，彼此已经十分默契，且合作范围仍在扩大。</p>\n<p>以歌尔股份为例。根据最新数据，随着苹果AirPods系列销量不断上升，歌尔股份声学零件的市占率也是稳步增长。不少分析师还预计，在未来1-2年内，TWS业务将为歌尔提供全新的业务增长点。</p>\n<p>可以预见的是，已经成长为巨头的歌尔和立讯，依托苹果给予的养分，仍会在一段时间内保持自己的增长速度。</p>\n<h3><b>那些不可忽视的潜力股</b></h3>\n<p>当然，除了立讯和歌尔股份这两个大赢家之外，在苹果TOP 200榜单里，还有不少低调的、尚未达到巅峰的潜力股，值得我们关注。</p>\n<p><b>价值研究所（ID：jiazhiyanjiusuo）就认为，切入中游生产线和拥有核心零部件研发能力的厂商，在未来最具增长潜力。</b></p>\n<p>比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300136\">信维通信</a>，作为全球领先的射频元器件供应商，在消费电子、汽车、智能硬件领域都有重要地位；再比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000049\">德赛电池</a>，专注于研发生产消费电池，在2012年进入“果链”后一直为苹果的iPhone、iPad系列供应电池和中小型移动电源管理系统。</p>\n<p>以德赛电池为例，技术一直是其安身立命的根本。从成立以来，德赛走的就是一边合资经营、引进国外先进技术，一边坚持自主研发的路线，经过多年努力已经掌握了自己的核心技术。数据显示，德赛过去几年的研发投入基本保持年均20%左右的增幅，且在日本、新加坡等地设有海外研究所。</p>\n<p>虽然在业内很低调，德赛电池和信维通信的增长速度一点都不含糊。根据最新收盘价换算，德赛电池市值约180亿，信维通信约为220亿，且增长潜力仍在进一步释放中。</p>\n<p>可以预料的是，在自身科技硬实力不断提升，且苹果这个大靠山继续维持增长的情况下，会有更多“果链”潜力股突围而出。</p>\n<h2><b>“果链”神话的另一面</b></h2>\n<p>不过，在增长神话之外，我们还是能看到“果链”背后的“阴暗面”：大多集中在利润较低的零部件供应端，对苹果业务依赖过大抗压性不足等等。</p>\n<p><b>一方面，业务上过于依赖苹果是有一定风险的，一旦苹果削减订单，企业的营收、利润都无可避免会大幅下滑。</b></p>\n<p>7月12日，苹果供应链龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002600\">领益智造</a>开盘跌停，一日之内市值蒸发超60亿，无数股民一片哀嚎。</p>\n<p>诱发股价大跌的，是前一天盘后公布的2021年上半年业绩预告。财报显示，领益智造今年上半年业绩大变脸，归属上市公司股东净利润同比骤降26.66%-42.5%，这和一季度高达613%的净利润同比增幅相比，落差实在过于惊人。</p>\n<p>7月份这次业绩下滑，领益智造归因于蔓延全球的芯片荒。但事实上，这已经不是领益智造第一次遭遇股价暴跌困境。去年一季度，领益智造净利润同比暴跌89.22%至6487万元，报告期内公允价值变动损失超2.5亿元。造成这次业绩滑坡的主要原因，就是苹果削减订单。</p>\n<p>和领益智造有相似遭遇的果链企业并不少，更有甚者，如欧菲光这样被直接踢出供应链的企业，更是直接丧失近九成利润。</p>\n<p><b>另一方面，虽然国内的“果链”企业已经铆足了劲突破各种技术瓶颈，但在苹果生态链条内，利润率最高的核心生产环节依然掌握在少数几家巨头手里。</b></p>\n<p>以iPhone 13为例，13 Pro和13 Max两款高端机型的高刷屏由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>提供，ROM产自日本铠侠，电源IC是苹果自研产品，全系列的X60基带都由高通提供。</p>\n<p>换个角度讲，领益智造、欧菲光等“果链”企业之所以会面临削减订单甚至被踢出供应链的风险，也正是因为其缺少苹果生产链上的核心技术。举个例子，如果没有高通的X60 5G基带，iPhone就会丧失5G功能，所以高通绝不会有被苹果踢出供应链的危机——除非苹果在未来成功攻克5G 基带研发瓶颈，拥有自己的自研技术。</p>\n<p>有鉴于此，努力提高自身硬实力、扩展业务范围或者打入苹果供应链核心地带，是“果链”企业永葆生命力的关键。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed37c8edae0f93d2c152d7fdc1bbbfe9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>比如立讯精密，就开始切入中游生产组装业务，希望争夺更多核心利润。</b></p>\n<p>12月22日，据媒体报道，立讯精密已经开始在昆山建设一座占地面积超过28万平方公尺的制造园，为日后承接苹果iPhone的组装任务做准备。消息一出，立讯股价断线急剧拉升，当天收涨5.03%，股价较年内低位反弹超50%。</p>\n<p>在此前的报道中，价值研究所（ID：jiazhiyanjiusuo）曾提过对立讯增长放缓的担忧。但在疫情和供应链危机爆发之后，苹果有意打破对富士康的“代工依赖症”，进一步丰富自己的供应链，无疑为立讯打开了全新的增长空间。</p>\n<p>归根结底，零部件供应的利润率低、技术提升有限，且市场竞争越来越激烈，无法支撑立讯在高达3000亿的市值基础上进一步增长。但要是能成功切入中游生产、组装产业链，毛利水平无疑将大大提高。在苹果的幕后支持下，立讯叫板富士康，仿佛不再是一个遥不可及的梦想。</p>\n<p><b>至于目前尚未挤进“果链”的企业，机会窗口也没有完全关闭：在苹果高调宣布造车之后，新的供应链正在搭建。</b></p>\n<p>iPhone的“黄金十年”，铸就了一大批“果链”企业的增长神话。憧憬着“重新定义汽车”的苹果，还能打造出另一条引以为傲的供应链，带出新一批巨头吗？</p>\n<p>价值研究所（ID：jiazhiyanjiusuo）认为，大家或许需要保持谨慎。</p>\n<h2><b>苹果汽车供应链能续写辉煌吗？</b></h2>\n<p>12月23日，和大、贸联、和勤、富田等苹果汽车零部件供应商透露，Apple Car将在明年9月份面世，比库克的原计划提早了至少2年。不少美国媒体也爆料，苹果和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的技术人才、供应商争夺战近段时间也是渐趋激化，前者已从后者那挖走不少研发工程师和制造商。</p>\n<p>有意思的是，当初特斯拉崛起的时候，不少业内人士都认为其供应链管理体系有苹果的影子，很多人甚至在议论特斯拉供应链能否成为继“果链”之后又一个造富神话。但如今，苹果亲自下场造车，和特斯拉短兵相接，一场围绕供应链的大战自然是备受瞩目。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76aa79b86b347e5daa74b0fedfd01254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从前期动态来看，苹果汽车的供应链将沿用和消费电子供应链相似的管理模式。</p>\n<p><b>一方面，苹果会把核心技术牢牢把控在自己手里——上游的芯片设计、驾驶解决方案等高科技含量的生产环节，将采用自研为主的模式。</b></p>\n<p>数据显示，截止今年第三季度，苹果年内已经斩获了近30项汽车相关专利，包括自动驾驶解决方案、车载安全系系统、3D物体监测等核心技术。对比之下，去年一整年苹果才获得了10项专利。</p>\n<p>此外，据外媒报道，在苹果硅工程团队的努力下，第一代Apple Car芯片处理器的核心研发工作已经宣告完成，为Apple Car的完全自动驾驶测试奠定了基础。</p>\n<p>事实上，自从今年年中苹果技术副总裁凯文·林奇执掌汽车业务以来，苹果在自动核心技术上的研发进程就宛如被按下快进键，研发团队的人员流动速度也是越来越快。</p>\n<p>11月7日，特斯拉Autopilot系统总监CJ Moore宣布跳槽苹果，负责Apple Car的自动驾驶软件开发工作。有意思的是，CJ Moore的直属上司，是另一位从特斯拉跳槽过来的前高管Stuart Bowers。</p>\n<p><b>对于特斯拉来说，防止苹果挖角已经成为一个愈发严峻的问题。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9af9665ff3efe366049bc594ad03c94\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>（图片来自UNsplash）</p>\n<p><b>另一方面，苹果汽车项目团队过去一年频繁造访韩国、东南亚等地，和当地厂商商讨建立汽车零部件供应链的事宜。</b></p>\n<p>在新能源车的产业链中，苹果目前最看重的是两个环节：电池和造车平台。苹果原本的规划，是在韩国或东南亚等地建立自己的完整产业链和生产线，就和iPhone、iPad当初的量产模式一致。</p>\n<p>但尴尬的是，苹果和供应商的谈判之旅显得有些艰难。</p>\n<p>先说电池供应这一块，价值研究所（ID：jiazhiyanjiusuo）查阅的信息显示，自从苹果开启造车计划以来，已先后和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">松下</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>等厂商进行交涉，但至今并没有选定自己的电池供应商。</p>\n<p>在消费电子领域人见人爱的苹果，跨界造车之后为何出现那么大的落差？</p>\n<p>原因其实不难理解。诸如比亚迪，还有苹果此前也接触过的大众、福特、戴姆勒等头部车企纷纷将苹果拒之门外，无非出于两点考虑：<b>一是不愿意沦为苹果的代工厂、对苹果的强烈控制欲感到抗拒；二是新能源车市场正在起量，头部车企自身业务增速足够快、不必接入外部客户，更何况苹果要是造车成功了还会成为它们的强大竞争对手。</b></p>\n<p>而且大家别忘了，受疫情、碳酸锂原材料价格上涨、碳中和计划等因素影响，最近两年电池供应吃紧，马斯克都已经多次在推特上抱怨特斯拉的电池存货不足。</p>\n<p>对于宁德时代、松下这样并不与苹果存在直接竞争关系的厂商来讲，自然没有理由拒绝这一个大金主、大客户。但问题是，苹果想把对消费电子供应链的极致控制模式移植到这些巨头身上，并不那么容易。</p>\n<p>据外媒报道，宁德时代和苹果的谈判之所以迟迟没有进展，就因为双方在一个关键条款上无法达成共识：前者需要在美国建厂。</p>\n<p>苹果提出这个要求一点都不意外，毕竟将供应链置于自己严密控制下、纳入自身生态，是其一贯的作风。但和消费电子领域的供应商不同，市值万亿的宁德时代电池技术放眼全球都处于领先位置。且比亚迪、大众等车企的电池供应本就有限，满足自身需求尚且吃力，更没有太多精力和宁德时代抢生意。</p>\n<p>总结起来就一句话：<b>宁德时代这样的头部电池厂商很欢迎苹果这个大客户，但也有底气为了自己的利益拒绝任何客户的不合理要求。</b>在全球性产能紧缺的背景下，想接下、又有能力接下苹果这张大订单的厂商，其实并不多。在汽车供应链的搭建过程中，苹果还会遇到很多麻烦。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de016c31ae238ac982cb2761ed3a706f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>（图片来自Pixabay）</p>\n<p>再来看造车平台这一边，苹果也遭遇了相似的烦恼。</p>\n<p>今年年初，现代集团旗下的起亚汽车被爆将进入苹果汽车供应链，为后者提供整车生产服务。但消息传出后不到24小时，起亚火速发布辟谣声明，导致其股价在暴涨10%之后重挫13%，让投资者一脸迷惑。</p>\n<p>起亚此举，和前面提到的戴姆勒、大众等车企拒绝苹果的造车邀请，相信都是出于同一个原因。总而言之，苹果在早已杀得兴起的新能源战场入局偏慢，受到老玩家的联手排斥也是完全可以想象的。</p>\n<p>不过好在，苹果在消费电子领域积累的强大技术、生产优势，并不会白费——根据外媒的报道，苹果就很有可能和老搭档富士康再度联手造车。</p>\n<p>目前，富士康已经打造了自己的造车平台MIH，整个造车联盟共有1851个成员，且正计划在美国和泰国量产汽车。值得一提的是，前文提到的和大、贸联、和勤等零部件供应商，全都是富士康MIH平台的成员。在今年二季度财报会上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HHPD.UK\">鸿海集团</a>董事长刘扬伟曾说过：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “富士康目前正在和欧洲一些地区谈判建厂，这是我们全球汽车战略的一部分，预计到2023年底，就可以帮助Fisker等车企量产汽车。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>凭借自身强大的资本实力、市场号召力，我们并不怀疑苹果最终能成功打造出自己的汽车供应链。<b>但考虑到苹果在搭建生产线阶段的步履蹒跚，Apple Car供应链要想复制“果链”此前的辉煌，看来十分艰难。</b></p>\n<h2><b>写在最后</b></h2>\n<p>今年10月底的财报电话会上，“供应链管理大师”库克再次提及了苹果的供应链危机：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “受供应限制影响，苹果四季度营收减少了约60亿美元，iPhone、iPad和Mac等核心产品均受到了明显影响。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>库克此话一出，苹果股价盘后跌幅一度扩大至逾5%。也是在库克频繁表达对供应链安全的担忧之后，外界有关苹果将扩大供应链规模、增加更多供应商的猜测，不断升温。</p>\n<p>“果链”扩容，对于很多梦想加入苹果大家庭的供应商来说，是一大利好。但“一入豪门深似海”，想在苹果的生态环境下站稳脚跟，化机遇为利益，对于所有“果链”企业来说都是一门必修课。</p>\n<p>可以肯定的只有一点：只要苹果对市场的统治仍在继续，“果链”的造富神话就不会终结。就看谁能抓住机会，历劫飞升了。</p>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果供应链TOP200有喜有忧，果链神话要靠造车续写？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果供应链TOP200有喜有忧，果链神话要靠造车续写？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-28 07:01 北京时间 <a href=https://36kr.com/p/1545501333443329><strong>价值研究所</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周，A股苹果产业链概念板块连日走高。其中，科森科技录得三连涨，22日一度涨停，截止当日收盘封单资金达6200万，同日苹果产业链概念板块涨幅也逼近3%。\n作为国内唯一一家苹果金属件直接供应商，进入“果链”多年的科森科技在年底迎来一波爆发，是苹果强大市场号召力的直接体现。在缺席一年之后，苹果TOP 200供应商名单在今年年中回归，更是为投资者提供了了解各家企业发展的绝佳途径。\n虽然都说“果链”的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1545501333443329\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62bd1ddb3095dd628e689642165a611a","relate_stocks":{"BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1545501333443329","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2194210074","content_text":"上周，A股苹果产业链概念板块连日走高。其中，科森科技录得三连涨，22日一度涨停，截止当日收盘封单资金达6200万，同日苹果产业链概念板块涨幅也逼近3%。\n作为国内唯一一家苹果金属件直接供应商，进入“果链”多年的科森科技在年底迎来一波爆发，是苹果强大市场号召力的直接体现。在缺席一年之后，苹果TOP 200供应商名单在今年年中回归，更是为投资者提供了了解各家企业发展的绝佳途径。\n虽然都说“果链”的含金量在消退，苹果对供应链企业的极端控制反作用越来越明显，但加入“果链”仍是许多上下游零部件、代工企业提升自身价值的重要方式。借助今年这份最新名单，我们或许可以好好看看，“果链”的造富神话，到底还能延续多长时间。\n藏在“TOP 200”里的千亿巨头\n由于去年缺席一年，所以苹果今年年中公布的TOP200名单针对的是2020年供应商的表现。和2019年的名单相比，苹果在2020纳入了更多中国供应商。数据显示，中国大陆共有12家厂商被纳入苹果TOP200名单，是新纳入厂商最多的地区；中国香港和中国台湾地区也有多家新鲜上榜的供应商。\n也有媒体统计称，如果算上主体业务、生产线已经搬到大陆地区的港资企业，中国大陆+中国香港地区上榜的供应商数量达到48家，成为上榜厂商最多的地区，超过了美国的38家、日本的33家。当然，这份2020年的榜单存在一些滞后性，比如今年已经被剔出苹果供应链欧菲光，就依然在列。但总体来说，中国大陆企业的实力还是得到了更高的肯定，在苹果供应链里里的地位也在逐渐上升。\n再者，从完整名单来看，虽然苹果TOP 200供应商里有大量大家耳熟能详的国外巨头，如三星、高通、LG等。但国内的一众上榜厂商，同样不乏实力派、潜力股。在苹果这颗参天大树的庇荫下，不少供应商正创造了属于自己的增长奇迹。\n（图片来自UNsplash）\n在价值研究所（ID：jiazhiyanjiusuo）看来，“果链”的造富神话惠及了一大批核心供应商。要按崛起时间、核心业务等维度进行划分的话，我们可以将主要苹果TOP200榜单里的国内供应商分别两个阵营：老巨头和潜力股。\n立讯精密&歌尔股份：增长神话未完待续\n前一个阵营，有两个杰出代表——进入“果链”多年，一直备受苹果器重的长期合作伙伴歌尔股份和立讯精密。\n其中，歌尔股份最初是靠供应扬声器、受话器等零部件发家，而后切入中游精密零组件和智能硬件业务；立讯精密相信大家都十分熟悉，主要为苹果供应电声器件和连接器，因为业务和苹果高度绑定一度被业内人士赋予“苹果代工厂”的称号。\n可以看出，这两家供应商的主营业务，恰好覆盖苹果手机、PC、智能穿戴等全系列消费电子产品的各个核心零部件，是苹果这艘巨型航母得以顺利运转的重要组成部分。也正是得益于苹果提供的大量订单和“果链”的光环，歌尔和立讯这两大主要供应商也在过去十多年积累了深厚的家底。\n截止上周五收盘，歌尔股份的市值达到1840亿，立讯精密市值更是高达3431亿，和进入“果链”前相比有天壤之别。从营收增速来看，“果链”加诸立讯、歌尔身上的魔法也尚未消失。上一财年，立讯精密营收925亿，同比大增48%。数据显示，自上市以来，立讯的营收在10年间暴涨60倍，已然成为中小板市值之王。\n歌尔股份的增长速度也不遑多让。根据10月底发布的2021财年三季度报，歌尔今年前三个季度总营收为527.89亿元，同比增幅达到52%，归属上市公司股东净利润更是同比激增65.28%至33亿。据统计，歌尔股份今年前三季度的营收增速和净利润增速都保持在较高水平，尤其是净利润在今年第一季度同比暴涨228.41%，可见其增速之快。\n歌尔和立讯是较早阶段便加入“果链”的供应商，和苹果合作多年，彼此已经十分默契，且合作范围仍在扩大。\n以歌尔股份为例。根据最新数据，随着苹果AirPods系列销量不断上升，歌尔股份声学零件的市占率也是稳步增长。不少分析师还预计，在未来1-2年内，TWS业务将为歌尔提供全新的业务增长点。\n可以预见的是，已经成长为巨头的歌尔和立讯，依托苹果给予的养分，仍会在一段时间内保持自己的增长速度。\n那些不可忽视的潜力股\n当然，除了立讯和歌尔股份这两个大赢家之外，在苹果TOP 200榜单里，还有不少低调的、尚未达到巅峰的潜力股，值得我们关注。\n价值研究所（ID：jiazhiyanjiusuo）就认为，切入中游生产线和拥有核心零部件研发能力的厂商，在未来最具增长潜力。\n比如信维通信，作为全球领先的射频元器件供应商，在消费电子、汽车、智能硬件领域都有重要地位；再比如德赛电池，专注于研发生产消费电池，在2012年进入“果链”后一直为苹果的iPhone、iPad系列供应电池和中小型移动电源管理系统。\n以德赛电池为例，技术一直是其安身立命的根本。从成立以来，德赛走的就是一边合资经营、引进国外先进技术，一边坚持自主研发的路线，经过多年努力已经掌握了自己的核心技术。数据显示，德赛过去几年的研发投入基本保持年均20%左右的增幅，且在日本、新加坡等地设有海外研究所。\n虽然在业内很低调，德赛电池和信维通信的增长速度一点都不含糊。根据最新收盘价换算，德赛电池市值约180亿，信维通信约为220亿，且增长潜力仍在进一步释放中。\n可以预料的是，在自身科技硬实力不断提升，且苹果这个大靠山继续维持增长的情况下，会有更多“果链”潜力股突围而出。\n“果链”神话的另一面\n不过，在增长神话之外，我们还是能看到“果链”背后的“阴暗面”：大多集中在利润较低的零部件供应端，对苹果业务依赖过大抗压性不足等等。\n一方面，业务上过于依赖苹果是有一定风险的，一旦苹果削减订单，企业的营收、利润都无可避免会大幅下滑。\n7月12日，苹果供应链龙头领益智造开盘跌停，一日之内市值蒸发超60亿，无数股民一片哀嚎。\n诱发股价大跌的，是前一天盘后公布的2021年上半年业绩预告。财报显示，领益智造今年上半年业绩大变脸，归属上市公司股东净利润同比骤降26.66%-42.5%，这和一季度高达613%的净利润同比增幅相比，落差实在过于惊人。\n7月份这次业绩下滑，领益智造归因于蔓延全球的芯片荒。但事实上，这已经不是领益智造第一次遭遇股价暴跌困境。去年一季度，领益智造净利润同比暴跌89.22%至6487万元，报告期内公允价值变动损失超2.5亿元。造成这次业绩滑坡的主要原因，就是苹果削减订单。\n和领益智造有相似遭遇的果链企业并不少，更有甚者，如欧菲光这样被直接踢出供应链的企业，更是直接丧失近九成利润。\n另一方面，虽然国内的“果链”企业已经铆足了劲突破各种技术瓶颈，但在苹果生态链条内，利润率最高的核心生产环节依然掌握在少数几家巨头手里。\n以iPhone 13为例，13 Pro和13 Max两款高端机型的高刷屏由三星电子提供，ROM产自日本铠侠，电源IC是苹果自研产品，全系列的X60基带都由高通提供。\n换个角度讲，领益智造、欧菲光等“果链”企业之所以会面临削减订单甚至被踢出供应链的风险，也正是因为其缺少苹果生产链上的核心技术。举个例子，如果没有高通的X60 5G基带，iPhone就会丧失5G功能，所以高通绝不会有被苹果踢出供应链的危机——除非苹果在未来成功攻克5G 基带研发瓶颈，拥有自己的自研技术。\n有鉴于此，努力提高自身硬实力、扩展业务范围或者打入苹果供应链核心地带，是“果链”企业永葆生命力的关键。\n\n比如立讯精密，就开始切入中游生产组装业务，希望争夺更多核心利润。\n12月22日，据媒体报道，立讯精密已经开始在昆山建设一座占地面积超过28万平方公尺的制造园，为日后承接苹果iPhone的组装任务做准备。消息一出，立讯股价断线急剧拉升，当天收涨5.03%，股价较年内低位反弹超50%。\n在此前的报道中，价值研究所（ID：jiazhiyanjiusuo）曾提过对立讯增长放缓的担忧。但在疫情和供应链危机爆发之后，苹果有意打破对富士康的“代工依赖症”，进一步丰富自己的供应链，无疑为立讯打开了全新的增长空间。\n归根结底，零部件供应的利润率低、技术提升有限，且市场竞争越来越激烈，无法支撑立讯在高达3000亿的市值基础上进一步增长。但要是能成功切入中游生产、组装产业链，毛利水平无疑将大大提高。在苹果的幕后支持下，立讯叫板富士康，仿佛不再是一个遥不可及的梦想。\n至于目前尚未挤进“果链”的企业，机会窗口也没有完全关闭：在苹果高调宣布造车之后，新的供应链正在搭建。\niPhone的“黄金十年”，铸就了一大批“果链”企业的增长神话。憧憬着“重新定义汽车”的苹果，还能打造出另一条引以为傲的供应链，带出新一批巨头吗？\n价值研究所（ID：jiazhiyanjiusuo）认为，大家或许需要保持谨慎。\n苹果汽车供应链能续写辉煌吗？\n12月23日，和大、贸联、和勤、富田等苹果汽车零部件供应商透露，Apple Car将在明年9月份面世，比库克的原计划提早了至少2年。不少美国媒体也爆料，苹果和特斯拉的技术人才、供应商争夺战近段时间也是渐趋激化，前者已从后者那挖走不少研发工程师和制造商。\n有意思的是，当初特斯拉崛起的时候，不少业内人士都认为其供应链管理体系有苹果的影子，很多人甚至在议论特斯拉供应链能否成为继“果链”之后又一个造富神话。但如今，苹果亲自下场造车，和特斯拉短兵相接，一场围绕供应链的大战自然是备受瞩目。\n\n从前期动态来看，苹果汽车的供应链将沿用和消费电子供应链相似的管理模式。\n一方面，苹果会把核心技术牢牢把控在自己手里——上游的芯片设计、驾驶解决方案等高科技含量的生产环节，将采用自研为主的模式。\n数据显示，截止今年第三季度，苹果年内已经斩获了近30项汽车相关专利，包括自动驾驶解决方案、车载安全系系统、3D物体监测等核心技术。对比之下，去年一整年苹果才获得了10项专利。\n此外，据外媒报道，在苹果硅工程团队的努力下，第一代Apple Car芯片处理器的核心研发工作已经宣告完成，为Apple Car的完全自动驾驶测试奠定了基础。\n事实上，自从今年年中苹果技术副总裁凯文·林奇执掌汽车业务以来，苹果在自动核心技术上的研发进程就宛如被按下快进键，研发团队的人员流动速度也是越来越快。\n11月7日，特斯拉Autopilot系统总监CJ Moore宣布跳槽苹果，负责Apple Car的自动驾驶软件开发工作。有意思的是，CJ Moore的直属上司，是另一位从特斯拉跳槽过来的前高管Stuart Bowers。\n对于特斯拉来说，防止苹果挖角已经成为一个愈发严峻的问题。\n\n（图片来自UNsplash）\n另一方面，苹果汽车项目团队过去一年频繁造访韩国、东南亚等地，和当地厂商商讨建立汽车零部件供应链的事宜。\n在新能源车的产业链中，苹果目前最看重的是两个环节：电池和造车平台。苹果原本的规划，是在韩国或东南亚等地建立自己的完整产业链和生产线，就和iPhone、iPad当初的量产模式一致。\n但尴尬的是，苹果和供应商的谈判之旅显得有些艰难。\n先说电池供应这一块，价值研究所（ID：jiazhiyanjiusuo）查阅的信息显示，自从苹果开启造车计划以来，已先后和比亚迪、松下、宁德时代等厂商进行交涉，但至今并没有选定自己的电池供应商。\n在消费电子领域人见人爱的苹果，跨界造车之后为何出现那么大的落差？\n原因其实不难理解。诸如比亚迪，还有苹果此前也接触过的大众、福特、戴姆勒等头部车企纷纷将苹果拒之门外，无非出于两点考虑：一是不愿意沦为苹果的代工厂、对苹果的强烈控制欲感到抗拒；二是新能源车市场正在起量，头部车企自身业务增速足够快、不必接入外部客户，更何况苹果要是造车成功了还会成为它们的强大竞争对手。\n而且大家别忘了，受疫情、碳酸锂原材料价格上涨、碳中和计划等因素影响，最近两年电池供应吃紧，马斯克都已经多次在推特上抱怨特斯拉的电池存货不足。\n对于宁德时代、松下这样并不与苹果存在直接竞争关系的厂商来讲，自然没有理由拒绝这一个大金主、大客户。但问题是，苹果想把对消费电子供应链的极致控制模式移植到这些巨头身上，并不那么容易。\n据外媒报道，宁德时代和苹果的谈判之所以迟迟没有进展，就因为双方在一个关键条款上无法达成共识：前者需要在美国建厂。\n苹果提出这个要求一点都不意外，毕竟将供应链置于自己严密控制下、纳入自身生态，是其一贯的作风。但和消费电子领域的供应商不同，市值万亿的宁德时代电池技术放眼全球都处于领先位置。且比亚迪、大众等车企的电池供应本就有限，满足自身需求尚且吃力，更没有太多精力和宁德时代抢生意。\n总结起来就一句话：宁德时代这样的头部电池厂商很欢迎苹果这个大客户，但也有底气为了自己的利益拒绝任何客户的不合理要求。在全球性产能紧缺的背景下，想接下、又有能力接下苹果这张大订单的厂商，其实并不多。在汽车供应链的搭建过程中，苹果还会遇到很多麻烦。\n\n（图片来自Pixabay）\n再来看造车平台这一边，苹果也遭遇了相似的烦恼。\n今年年初，现代集团旗下的起亚汽车被爆将进入苹果汽车供应链，为后者提供整车生产服务。但消息传出后不到24小时，起亚火速发布辟谣声明，导致其股价在暴涨10%之后重挫13%，让投资者一脸迷惑。\n起亚此举，和前面提到的戴姆勒、大众等车企拒绝苹果的造车邀请，相信都是出于同一个原因。总而言之，苹果在早已杀得兴起的新能源战场入局偏慢，受到老玩家的联手排斥也是完全可以想象的。\n不过好在，苹果在消费电子领域积累的强大技术、生产优势，并不会白费——根据外媒的报道，苹果就很有可能和老搭档富士康再度联手造车。\n目前，富士康已经打造了自己的造车平台MIH，整个造车联盟共有1851个成员，且正计划在美国和泰国量产汽车。值得一提的是，前文提到的和大、贸联、和勤等零部件供应商，全都是富士康MIH平台的成员。在今年二季度财报会上，鸿海集团董事长刘扬伟曾说过：\n\n 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