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可愛的小韭菜
2022-11-10
8+[惊讶]
JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Maps Out CPI Game Plan for Wall Street
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","text":"8+[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960389133","repostId":"1167588549","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167588549","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668052807,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167588549?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Maps Out CPI Game Plan for Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167588549","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"In-line inflation seen as ‘small positive’ for stocks, bondsOctober event shows risk of calling mark","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>In-line inflation seen as ‘small positive’ for stocks, bonds</li><li>October event shows risk of calling market based on one factor</li></ul><p>With midterm election results still unknown, Wall Street is bracing for the next event risk: a fresh inflation report that will heavily influence the latest round of Federal Reserve rate hikes.</p><p>Projecting any fallout from the release of the consumer price index Thursday is getting harder, but the trading team at JPMorgan Chase & Co. is undeterred -- with a game plan that suggests stocks could fall as much as 6% during the session if the data comes in hotter than anticipated.</p><p>Should price trends in October align with consensus expectations -- with the year-on-year reading easing to 7.9% or 8% -- that would be taken as a “small positive” for both bonds and stocks, and the S&P 500 may rise by 1% to 1.5%, according to the firm’s scenario analysis.</p><p>Anything near or above the prior reading of 8.2% may well spell trouble. The benchmark gauge is likely to sink as much as 6% on an inflation print north of 8.4%, the team including Andrew Tyler wrote in a note.</p><p>Arriving one week after Jerome Powell’s hawkish posture stoked big gyrations in world markets, the CPI update will help determine both the size of the Fed’s policy tightening in December and where interest rates will peak in this business cycle, or the so-called terminal rate.</p><p>On the flipside, if CPI falls to 7.6% or below, the S&P 500 could surge more than 5% while 10-year Treasury yields fall below 4%, Tyler and his colleagues suggested.</p><p>“This may also reset the yield curve lower with terminal rate expectations falling under 5%,” the team wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. “This week’s CPI will be the most important factor to shape the expectations for December FOMC.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b88175566ae7c1e098407bf918e0c203\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Embedded in the analysis is the idea that hot inflation is bad for stocks, a narrative that had played out in 2022 -- until last month. After another strong CPI print on Oct. 13, the S&P 500 initially dropped more than 2%, as predicted by the JPMorgan team. Then in a dramatic turn, the index staged a giant rebound to finish the session up 2.6%.</p><p>Some attributed the shocking reversal to chart support or options hedging. Others cited the specter of peak inflation leading to hopes for a less hawkish Fed. Whatever the reason, the episode highlights the danger of relying on any single factor to call the market’s tune.</p><p>Still, JPMorgan’s study offers a lens into the high stakes that the inflation report poses for investors. Below is how stocks have performed this year on CPI day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10977810bc09452766cb57cdd2f1c80f\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Maps Out CPI Game Plan for Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan’s Trading Desk Maps Out CPI Game Plan for Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-10 12:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/jpmorgan-s-trading-desk-maps-out-cpi-game-plan-for-wall-street><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In-line inflation seen as ‘small positive’ for stocks, bondsOctober event shows risk of calling market based on one factorWith midterm election results still unknown, Wall Street is bracing for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/jpmorgan-s-trading-desk-maps-out-cpi-game-plan-for-wall-street\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/jpmorgan-s-trading-desk-maps-out-cpi-game-plan-for-wall-street","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167588549","content_text":"In-line inflation seen as ‘small positive’ for stocks, bondsOctober event shows risk of calling market based on one factorWith midterm election results still unknown, Wall Street is bracing for the next event risk: a fresh inflation report that will heavily influence the latest round of Federal Reserve rate hikes.Projecting any fallout from the release of the consumer price index Thursday is getting harder, but the trading team at JPMorgan Chase & Co. is undeterred -- with a game plan that suggests stocks could fall as much as 6% during the session if the data comes in hotter than anticipated.Should price trends in October align with consensus expectations -- with the year-on-year reading easing to 7.9% or 8% -- that would be taken as a “small positive” for both bonds and stocks, and the S&P 500 may rise by 1% to 1.5%, according to the firm’s scenario analysis.Anything near or above the prior reading of 8.2% may well spell trouble. The benchmark gauge is likely to sink as much as 6% on an inflation print north of 8.4%, the team including Andrew Tyler wrote in a note.Arriving one week after Jerome Powell’s hawkish posture stoked big gyrations in world markets, the CPI update will help determine both the size of the Fed’s policy tightening in December and where interest rates will peak in this business cycle, or the so-called terminal rate.On the flipside, if CPI falls to 7.6% or below, the S&P 500 could surge more than 5% while 10-year Treasury yields fall below 4%, Tyler and his colleagues suggested.“This may also reset the yield curve lower with terminal rate expectations falling under 5%,” the team wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. “This week’s CPI will be the most important factor to shape the expectations for December FOMC.”Embedded in the analysis is the idea that hot inflation is bad for stocks, a narrative that had played out in 2022 -- until last month. After another strong CPI print on Oct. 13, the S&P 500 initially dropped more than 2%, as predicted by the JPMorgan team. Then in a dramatic turn, the index staged a giant rebound to finish the session up 2.6%.Some attributed the shocking reversal to chart support or options hedging. Others cited the specter of peak inflation leading to hopes for a less hawkish Fed. Whatever the reason, the episode highlights the danger of relying on any single factor to call the market’s tune.Still, JPMorgan’s study offers a lens into the high stakes that the inflation report poses for investors. Below is how stocks have performed this year on CPI day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}