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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-16
[开心]
Elon Musk sets relaunch date of Twitter's 'Blue Verified'
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-16
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-16
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Musk to testify at trial over his US$50 billion Tesla compensation
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-16
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-16
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-04
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重磅指数成分股调整在即,哪些公司将获资金“被动买入”?
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-04
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@WallStreet_Tiger:Oil &Gas Explorers: VOC, TPL, BSM, COP, APA &PR Hit New Highs!
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-03
😙😙
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-01
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Encyclopedia:牛熊证交易
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-27
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Encyclopedia:美股上市指南
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-27
$AAPL 20221028 145.0 CALL$
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-27
$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-27
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Live Streaming: 经济萧条之际,投防守型股票可选哪些?
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-27
$苹果(AAPL)$
[开心] [开心]
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-26
[Smile]
@LMSunshine:Markets Priced in May’23 Hike As Fed Tackles High Inflation
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-26
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@CaptainTiger:[TOPIC] Where & When Will Hang Seng Index Bottom?
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-26
[Happy]
@TigerObserver:💡 Stocks of the week (16 OCT- 22 OCT)
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-17
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-13
[Happy] [Happy] [Happy]
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-09-19
[开心] [开心] [开心]
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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class=\"title\">\nElon Musk sets relaunch date of Twitter's 'Blue Verified'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-16 13:02 GMT+8 <a href=https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMihwFodHRwczovL3d3dy5za3luZXdzLmNvbS5hdS9idXNpbmVzcy9tZWRpYS9lbG9uLW11c2stc2V0cy1yZWxhdW5jaC1kYXRlLW9mLXR3aXR0ZXJzLWJsdWUtdmVyaWZpZWQvdmlkZW8vOTI5YjdkOTEwOGQ3NDY1OGFmOTMxMjg0MjViNmRlM2bSAQA?oc=5><strong>Sky News Australia</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Elon Musk sets relaunch date of Twitter's 'Blue Verified'</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMihwFodHRwczovL3d3dy5za3luZXdzLmNvbS5hdS9idXNpbmVzcy9tZWRpYS9lbG9uLW11c2stc2V0cy1yZWxhdW5jaC1kYXRlLW9mLXR3aXR0ZXJzLWJsdWUtdmVyaWZpZWQvdmlkZW8vOTI5YjdkOTEwOGQ3NDY1OGFmOTMxMjg0MjViNmRlM2bSAQA?oc=5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk to testify at trial over his US$50 billion Tesla compensation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-16 14:07 GMT+8 <a href=https://t.co/fsE9Xwkjk4><strong>CNA:</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Musk to testify at trial over his US$50 billion Tesla compensation</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://t.co/fsE9Xwkjk4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation 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[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963306391","repostId":"1123011603","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984344414,"gmtCreate":1667547015939,"gmtModify":1676537935675,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984344414","repostId":"2280852058","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2280852058","pubTimestamp":1667546257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2280852058?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 15:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"重磅指数成分股调整在即,哪些公司将获资金“被动买入”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2280852058","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一般来说,中证系列、上证系列指数将在6月及12月的中旬定期调整其样本股,调整方案会提前两周进行公告。历史经验来看,预测窗口期通常有一个月时间,如今面临成分股调整窗口到来,各大券商也均对个股作出预判。从","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>一般来说,中证系列、上证系列指数将在6月及12月的中旬定期调整其样本股,调整方案会提前两周进行公告。</p><p>历史经验来看,预测窗口期通常有一个月时间,如今面临成分股调整窗口到来,各大券商也均对个股作出预判。</p><p>从指数来看,上证50、上证180、上证380、沪深300、中证500等指数均将在本轮调整范围。其中沪深300指数和中证500指数存续跟踪产品数量多,规模大,作为市场的明星指数,二者成分股的每次调整均会引起投资者的关注。</p><h2><b>提前预判或可带来超额收益</b></h2><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>表示,通过对调整名单的提前预测,套利投资者可通过提前预测成分股调整名单,捕捉指数纳入效应带来的超额收益;陆股通投资者则可通过对成分股调整的预判,提前把握可投范围的变化。</p><p>华创证券指出,指数成分股调整事件也被称为指数效应,会产生价格效应和成交量效应。随着样本股的调入调出,跟踪该指数的基金和投资者会对持仓做出相应的调整,从而可能会对调入调出的股票价格和成交量产生重要影响。</p><p>一般来说,新调入和调出股票的价格和成交量会在调整名单公布后出现变动,对于调入的新成分股,会出现股价上涨和交易量上升的情况;对于调出的股票,则表现为股价下跌与交易量减少。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1448c26d9c6f333e5b00f31fba240696\" tg-width=\"1377\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>此外,据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">招商证券</a>统计,在公告日后的一段时间内,纳入股票仍能够获得显著的超额收益,纳入标的在调整公告日后的10日之内存在明显的超额收益,而在之后的十多个交易日后超额收益又会被逐渐弱化。</p><p>相对的,样本股从指数成分股中剔除后,其股票价格在调整公告日之后的15日内呈现出了显著减弱的特征。</p><h2><b>涉及哪些公司?</b></h2><p>由于指数样本股调整的标准是确定的,所以各家券商标的预测大致相似,只有个别公司及数量稍有区别。</p><p>从数量上看,中金、华创、兴业均预计沪深300有14只个股调整,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06099\">招商证券</a>、开源证券认为被调整的个股数量有18只。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867555a67cf53772e0f515b52f778684\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>具体来看,中金、兴业、华创预计将调入的绝大部分标的均相同,唯一区别的一只个股是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600702\">舍得酒业</a>,中金、华创均预计其将被调入,而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">兴业证券</a>则认为被纳入的标的为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">美锦能源</a>。</p><p>与前三者相比,开源证券和招商多出四只标的,二者均预计<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601607\">上海医药</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688180\">君实生物</a>也将被纳入此次调整之中。</p><p>剔除方面,各家券商彼此之家预测的结果差异不大,中金、兴业、华创、开源预计被剔除的14只标的完全一致,而招商则预计<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601825\">沪农商行</a>不会被纳入此次剔除序列当中,应当是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">盐湖股份</a>。</p><p>除此之外,开源与招商预计被剔除的另外4只标的也完全一致。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d03674819199d407a860dea221a6c5\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>结合行业来看,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>表示,电力设备新能源、食品饮料等行业被纳入居前,而医药、银行等行业被剔除数较多。</p><p>中证500方面,兴业、招商、华创、开源、中金均预计将有50只个股将被调入或调出,行业中,电子、基础化工、电力设备新能源等行业成分股数量提升,交运、钢铁、房地产等行业成分股数量下滑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65a2944d06e15be6d1ae88d628613dcd\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"901\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>重磅指数成分股调整在即,哪些公司将获资金“被动买入”?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n重磅指数成分股调整在即,哪些公司将获资金“被动买入”?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-04 15:17 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674123><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一般来说,中证系列、上证系列指数将在6月及12月的中旬定期调整其样本股,调整方案会提前两周进行公告。历史经验来看,预测窗口期通常有一个月时间,如今面临成分股调整窗口到来,各大券商也均对个股作出预判。从指数来看,上证50、上证180、上证380、沪深300、中证500等指数均将在本轮调整范围。其中沪深300指数和中证500指数存续跟踪产品数量多,规模大,作为市场的明星指数,二者成分股的每次调整均会...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674123\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640e98458f00668ccdcb478768943e35","relate_stocks":{"000016.SH":"上证50"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674123","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2280852058","content_text":"一般来说,中证系列、上证系列指数将在6月及12月的中旬定期调整其样本股,调整方案会提前两周进行公告。历史经验来看,预测窗口期通常有一个月时间,如今面临成分股调整窗口到来,各大券商也均对个股作出预判。从指数来看,上证50、上证180、上证380、沪深300、中证500等指数均将在本轮调整范围。其中沪深300指数和中证500指数存续跟踪产品数量多,规模大,作为市场的明星指数,二者成分股的每次调整均会引起投资者的关注。提前预判或可带来超额收益中金公司表示,通过对调整名单的提前预测,套利投资者可通过提前预测成分股调整名单,捕捉指数纳入效应带来的超额收益;陆股通投资者则可通过对成分股调整的预判,提前把握可投范围的变化。华创证券指出,指数成分股调整事件也被称为指数效应,会产生价格效应和成交量效应。随着样本股的调入调出,跟踪该指数的基金和投资者会对持仓做出相应的调整,从而可能会对调入调出的股票价格和成交量产生重要影响。一般来说,新调入和调出股票的价格和成交量会在调整名单公布后出现变动,对于调入的新成分股,会出现股价上涨和交易量上升的情况;对于调出的股票,则表现为股价下跌与交易量减少。此外,据招商证券统计,在公告日后的一段时间内,纳入股票仍能够获得显著的超额收益,纳入标的在调整公告日后的10日之内存在明显的超额收益,而在之后的十多个交易日后超额收益又会被逐渐弱化。相对的,样本股从指数成分股中剔除后,其股票价格在调整公告日之后的15日内呈现出了显著减弱的特征。涉及哪些公司?由于指数样本股调整的标准是确定的,所以各家券商标的预测大致相似,只有个别公司及数量稍有区别。从数量上看,中金、华创、兴业均预计沪深300有14只个股调整,招商证券、开源证券认为被调整的个股数量有18只。具体来看,中金、兴业、华创预计将调入的绝大部分标的均相同,唯一区别的一只个股是舍得酒业,中金、华创均预计其将被调入,而兴业证券则认为被纳入的标的为美锦能源。与前三者相比,开源证券和招商多出四只标的,二者均预计上海医药和君实生物也将被纳入此次调整之中。剔除方面,各家券商彼此之家预测的结果差异不大,中金、兴业、华创、开源预计被剔除的14只标的完全一致,而招商则预计沪农商行不会被纳入此次剔除序列当中,应当是盐湖股份。除此之外,开源与招商预计被剔除的另外4只标的也完全一致。结合行业来看,中金公司表示,电力设备新能源、食品饮料等行业被纳入居前,而医药、银行等行业被剔除数较多。中证500方面,兴业、招商、华创、开源、中金均预计将有50只个股将被调入或调出,行业中,电子、基础化工、电力设备新能源等行业成分股数量提升,交运、钢铁、房地产等行业成分股数量下滑。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984345025,"gmtCreate":1667546223667,"gmtModify":1676537935610,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984345025","repostId":"9984355792","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9984355792,"gmtCreate":1667543690717,"gmtModify":1676537935238,"author":{"id":"9000000000000419","authorId":"9000000000000419","name":"WallStreet_Tiger","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1fdbba25bcf5dea3f281241ba1320d10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000419","authorIdStr":"9000000000000419"},"themes":[],"title":"Oil &Gas Explorers: VOC, TPL, BSM, COP, APA &PR Hit New Highs!","htmlText":"On thursday trading, Oil & Gas Exploration and Production industry top the increase among the whole market industries. Then Intergrated Oil & Gas Industry see 1.54% increase.Energy sector has been the best performed area in recent year. Due to war and inflation reasons. And you may ask , does energy sector will continue to rise? What stocks you should add to watchlist?Welcome to Read:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2278626227\" target=\"_blank\">10 Energy Stocks To Buy On t</a>","listText":"On thursday trading, Oil & Gas Exploration and Production industry top the increase among the whole market industries. Then Intergrated Oil & Gas Industry see 1.54% increase.Energy sector has been the best performed area in recent year. Due to war and inflation reasons. And you may ask , does energy sector will continue to rise? What stocks you should add to watchlist?Welcome to Read:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2278626227\" target=\"_blank\">10 Energy Stocks To Buy On t</a>","text":"On thursday trading, Oil & Gas Exploration and Production industry top the increase among the whole market industries. Then Intergrated Oil & Gas Industry see 1.54% increase.Energy sector has been the best performed area in recent year. Due to war and inflation reasons. And you may ask , does energy sector will continue to rise? What stocks you should add to watchlist?Welcome to Read:10 Energy Stocks To Buy On 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[开心] ","listText":"[开心] [开心] ","text":"[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985086936","repostId":"100008","repostType":11,"repost":{"id":100008,"title":"牛熊证交易","desc":"牛熊证是近年新兴的热门投资工具,与窝轮相类似,同样有行使价、到期日、兑换比率等条款。","author":"老虎证券","img_url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a11e3539dcb3a65c651ac444069832","content":"<h3><b> 1.什么是牛熊证?</b></h3><p>牛熊证是近年新兴的热门投资工具,与窝轮相类似,同样有行使价、到期日、兑换比率等条款。牛熊证与期指买卖相似,牛熊证的财务费用则可比拟投资者向发行商借取金钱买入/卖出相关资产而付出的费用,并获取杠杆效应。</p><p>牛证看涨,熊证看跌;与认购证看涨,认沽证看跌相似。</p><p>窝轮及牛熊证的区别为牛熊证设有强制回收机制,相关资产价格触及牛熊证之回收价时,牛熊证便会被回收。</p><p>投资者无须补仓,损失上限为最初投入购买牛熊证的资金。</p><p>识别牛熊证:</p><p>牛熊证推出初期,不少投资者未能分辨窝轮和牛熊证,不时出现牛熊证被回收后才知道买入的并非窝轮而是牛熊证。</p><p>分辨牛熊证可简单从三方面着手。</p><p>(一) 留意该衍生产品是否有回收价,因市场上只有牛熊证具备回收价。</p><p>(二) 留意牛熊证的中文名称是否有“牛”或“熊”的字眼。</p><p>(三) 致电发行商查询</p><h3><b>2.窝轮和牛熊证的区别</b></h3><p>所有牛熊证均为价内,为对冲值大约等于1的产品 (Delta One Product)。牛熊证与窝轮相似,同样受相关资产价格、行使价、到期日、股息、利率等因素影响。</p><p>现实市场中,牛熊证的行使价及到期日在上市前已确定,并不会在上市期内有所改变 (因除权或红股派发而调整行使价除外)。</p><p>牛熊证及窝轮的主要分别在于:</p><p>(1)牛熊证因其深入价内特性令价格理论上不如窝轮般受引伸波幅影响;</p><p>(2)牛熊证对冲值大约等于1的特性令其与相关资产价格之关系较窝轮容易理解;</p><p>(3)其时间值损耗亦接近线性(Linear),即接近到期日前时间值减少的速度不会如窝轮一样加快。</p><h3><b>3.牛熊证名词解释</b></h3><p><b>(1)回收价</b></p><p>牛熊证具有回收机制,当相关牛熊证的资产价格在牛熊证到期前触及回收价,该牛熊证便会停止交易,被即时回收并进行结算。</p><p>在相关牛熊证的资产价格接近回收价时,牛熊证的价格波动幅度可能高于其理论变幅。</p><p>牛熊证强制回收后,就算相关资产价格其后重回回收价之上(牛证)/下(熊证),该牛熊证亦不会恢复交易。回收价在牛熊证上市时已订立,一般会显示在报价机及产品条款上。</p><p><b>(2)距</b>回收<b>百分比</b></p><p>即牛熊证回收价与相关资产现价的差距百分比。如数值较小,即回收牛熊证的价与相关资产现价距离较近;如数值较大,即回收牛熊证的价与相关资产现价距离较远。不过,此百分比不可完全反映牛熊证回收风险的高低,因市场的波动率可能不时改变。在波幅极大的市场中,牛熊证相关资产现价距离回收价百分比就算高达10%,亦有可能被回收,故牛熊证投资者应同时参考市场之波幅。</p><p><b>(3)行使价</b></p><p>倘该牛熊证被持有至到期而未被回收,牛熊证投资者概念上可以该行使价格买入(牛证)/卖出(熊证)相关资产的价格水平。于现实牛熊证的交易中, 会以现金结算后把金额退回给投资者。行使价在牛熊证上市时已订立,一般会显示在报价机及产品条款上。在场内交易的牛证,其回收价及行使价皆不可能高于相关资产现价;熊证之回收价及行使价皆不可能低于相关资产现价,因该等「价外」牛熊证应已被回收。理论上,所有在场内交易之牛熊证皆为「价内」。</p><p><b>(4)兑换比率</b></p><p>股份牛熊证之兑换比率一般为1、10或100;指数牛熊证之兑换比率变化较大,由数千至数万不等,兑换比率大小对牛熊证的面值及即市跳动有影响,但不影响其理论价格变幅。兑换比率越小,牛熊证的面值便越大,同一价格区域间,价格跳动越快。</p><p><b>(5)对冲值</b></p><p>发行商每沽出/买入一份牛熊证,对冲时所需买入/沽出的相关资产份数。不少投资者以为牛熊证的对冲值大约为1,但事实上牛熊证的对冲值受到牛熊证到期日前,相关资产的派息次数及派息率影响,其对冲值可由0.6到1.4不等。</p><p>一般而言,牛证的年期越长,对冲值越小;而熊证的年期越长,对冲值越大。因为到期前相关资产派息,将会增加熊证被行使的预期价值,并同时降低牛证被行使时的预期价值。</p><p>另外,牛熊证对冲值会随着相关资产价格变化而改变,相关资产价格距离牛熊证行使价越远,即牛熊证越深入价内,对冲值会越接近1;而相关资产价格距离牛熊证回收价越近,其对冲值变化会较波动。所以,投资者应根据市场变化,多查阅对冲值这个数据, 调整投资策略。</p><p><b>(6)街货量</b></p><p>由于买卖牛熊证不涉及场外期权对冲,故街货量对牛熊证之价格表现影响较轻微,发行人亦较积极回购牛熊证。一旦投资者选择在同一时间同时大量买入/沽出牛熊证,或令牛熊证在短时间内偏离理论价格。</p><p><b>(7)溢价</b></p><p>牛熊证溢价即牛熊证投资者买入牛熊证后,倘持有至到期,相关牛熊证的资产价格需升/跌多少,才能令牛熊证投资者打和离场。牛熊证之溢价亦可被理解为发行人收取牛熊证财务费用的实际价值。若相同回收价而不同到期日的牛熊证被强制回收,投资者持有较低溢价的牛熊证,在财务费用上的损失会较买入较高溢价者为少。不过,若投资者长期持有深入价内的牛熊证,则宜比较同类条款牛熊证的财务费用年率。</p><p><b>(8)杠杆比率</b></p><p>牛熊证的杠杆比率大多非常「实际」或「有效」,由于牛熊证的对冲值相当接近一,故不用如窝轮般在计算实际杠杆时,加入对冲值的参数。牛熊证的杠杆比率,就等同它的实际杠杆。牛熊证的杠杆比率与相关资产升跌成逆向。倘一只牛证因相关资产价格上升而上扬,其牛熊证的杠杆比率将降低;相反,如牛证因恒指相关资产价格下跌而回落,其牛熊证的杠杆比率将增加。因此,牛熊证投资者一旦看错方向,需检视所持有之牛熊证杠杆比率会否变得过高,超过了自己可承受的风险水平。如是,牛熊证投资者应考虑换马至较低杠杆之另一条款牛熊证上;看中方向的投资者则可考虑换马至较高杠杆的牛熊证上,以维持原来的杠杆比例。</p><h3><b>4.牛熊证结算方式</b></h3><p>牛熊证的最后交易日为到期日前一个交易日(与窝轮的到期日前四个交易日不同)。</p><p>牛证结算价值 = (结算价 - 行使价) / 兑换比率</p><p>熊证结算价值 = (行使价 - 结算价) / 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According to futures markets that track the federal funds rate, traders have fully priced in the benchmark policy rate reaching 5% in May next year, up from 4.6% before the latest inflation data released late last week🔥🥵 Expectations 🚀🚀🚀 after Sep’s CPI report showed an alarming acceleration in monthly price pressures across a broad array of everyday items & services. This unexpected jump in consumer price growth means that the Fed would yet again go for an aggressive increase at its next policy meeting in Nov, & deliver a 4th consecutive 75bps rate hike, the odds of which have been fully","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9beccf2ccd78c843da8636f0e603fd9a","width":"992","height":"555"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981978307","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":74,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988232330,"gmtCreate":1666754276320,"gmtModify":1676537801251,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]","listText":"[Smile]","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988232330","repostId":"9981465467","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9981465467,"gmtCreate":1666582433759,"gmtModify":1676537771840,"author":{"id":"3527667618000160","authorId":"3527667618000160","name":"CaptainTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d0e54b757b231beb8b11fd49de85317","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618000160","authorIdStr":"3527667618000160"},"themes":[],"title":"[TOPIC] Where & When Will Hang Seng Index Bottom?","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HSI\">$HSI(HSI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>Hang Seng slid to a new 13-year low, plunging as much as 5%, and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd & Tencent Holdings Ltd both dropped more than 8% in the morning trading session, 24 Oct. ","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HSI\">$HSI(HSI)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>Hang Seng slid to a new 13-year low, plunging as much as 5%, and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd & Tencent Holdings Ltd both dropped more than 8% in the morning trading session, 24 Oct. ","text":"$HSI(HSI)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ $TENCENT(00700)$Hang Seng slid to a new 13-year low, plunging as much as 5%, and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd & Tencent Holdings Ltd both dropped more than 8% in the morning trading session, 24 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Stocks of the week (16 OCT- 22 OCT)","htmlText":"Hey Tigers!I am Tiger Observer, sharing market information with you! 🔎🔎🔎I will post the 10 most searched stocks in the Tiger Trade App. Don't miss my updates!!!<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>","listText":"Hey Tigers!I am Tiger Observer, sharing market information with you! 🔎🔎🔎I will post the 10 most searched stocks in the Tiger Trade App. Don't miss my updates!!!<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>","text":"Hey Tigers!I am Tiger Observer, sharing market information with you! 🔎🔎🔎I will post the 10 most searched stocks in the Tiger Trade App. Don't miss my updates!!!$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c0dfb98b2e036242a82f3c7179886e57","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988387350","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989652721,"gmtCreate":1665999052663,"gmtModify":1676537689917,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心] [开心] [开心] ","listText":"[开心] [开心] [开心] ","text":"[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989652721","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980338244,"gmtCreate":1665646678088,"gmtModify":1676537642171,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] ","listText":"[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] ","text":"[Happy] [Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980338244","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910166157,"gmtCreate":1663578771879,"gmtModify":1676537294459,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心] [开心] [开心] ","listText":"[开心] [开心] [开心] ","text":"[开心] [开心] 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[財迷] [財迷] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [得意] [得意] [得意] ","listText":"堅持努力就是最好的自己[呆住] [財迷] [財迷] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [得意] [得意] [得意] ","text":"堅持努力就是最好的自己[呆住] [財迷] [財迷] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [得意] [得意] [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052644776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027556358,"gmtCreate":1654054879874,"gmtModify":1676535386695,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK7508\">$医药生物股(BK7508)$</a>😂😂😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK7508\">$医药生物股(BK7508)$</a>😂😂😂","text":"$医药生物股(BK7508)$😂😂😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027556358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4097199389075880","authorId":"4097199389075880","name":"新西兰可可的最新名字你看看我的新名字怎么样容易让人记住吧","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/405791fae29d8d8775e388763681c4e9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4097199389075880","idStr":"4097199389075880"},"content":"Ha ha ha ha","text":"Ha ha ha ha","html":"Ha ha ha ha"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963306391,"gmtCreate":1668581762513,"gmtModify":1676538079821,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser] [Miser] ","listText":"[Miser] [Miser] ","text":"[Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963306391","repostId":"1123011603","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123011603","pubTimestamp":1668580886,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123011603?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-16 14:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What If the Fed Has to Take Rates Up to 6%?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123011603","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge and the extreme measures the Federal Reserve will be forced to take to bring prices under control. When the Fed began raising rates in March, markets were pricing in a terminal rate of just 2.8%. As of mid-November, that expectation has risen to 5%—matching the forecast Bloomberg Economics set out in July.</p><p>Could they be forced to do even more? Absolutely. If the Fed is underestimating the natural rate of unemployment, or if the pandemic has resulted in a significant deterioration in productivity, a terminal rate of 6% could come into view.</p><p>There are also risks in the other direction, even if they’re less likely. It would take a lot more than the shocks to date, but a prolonged period of market mayhem—of the sort seen after the UK’s mini-budget fiscal fumble in September—might be enough to persuade the Fed to halt at a lower rate.</p><p>At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee’s dot plot showed a higher trajectory of rate hikes, despite a deterioration in the growth outlook. A simple explanation for this anomaly is that the committee’s estimate of u*—alternatively called NAIRU, or the unemployment rate associated with price stability—has risen from the traditional 4%.</p><p>The Bloomberg Economics rule—a modification of the classic Taylor rule that captures the relationship between unemployment, inflation, and Fed policy—can be used to work out an estimate of where the FOMC now puts u*. The u* values that best fit the September dot plot are 4.4% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 2024, and 4.0% in 2025. That suggests the FOMC sees u* as temporarily elevated and expects it to gradually fall back to the pre-pandemic norm in 2025.</p><p>What if u* is even higher? A recent estimate by Fed staff put it in the 5%-to-6% range. Given the wrenching dislocations in labor markets that have resulted from the pandemic—with both companies and workers rethinking their priorities—that’s entirely plausible. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has said the natural rate of unemployment has “moved up materially.”</p><p>Holding the committee’s inflation forecast constant, a u* estimate of 5% would mean a terminal rate of 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f910a71785646a1bed891acc064ee370\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What Lower Productivity Growth Would Bring</p><p>Broader macroeconomic factors, such as a slowdown in productivity growth, could also push up u*. If workers demand faster wage growth than what companies can earn from their output—either to compensate for higher inflation or simply because they have the bargaining power—the result is higher unemployment. That’s what happened in the 1970s, when productivity gains fell below wage growth.</p><p>Mainstream economists appear to believe the pandemic won’t result in a repeat performance. That assumption ignores some hard-learned lessons from the 1970s that linked high inflation to lower productivity:</p><p>High inflation means a sharp shift in relative prices. Businesses that have optimized their production processes on the assumption of stable input costs may find their old approaches obsolete or inefficient.</p><p>On their balance sheets, companies charge themselves for property, machinery, and other capital stock based on the equivalent rental price. High inflation raises the rental price, discouraging investment.</p><p>Uncertainty about inflation and central bank rates—as well as factors like geopolitics—adds an additional hurdle for companies making costly long-term investments. A project that looks profitable today might not be tomorrow if borrowing costs continue to rise.</p><p>All of those factors that weighed on productivity growth in the 1970s are also present today, suggesting a high risk that potential growth may be downshifting from its already low pace before the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p>To gauge the impact of slower growth, we conducted the following experiment using FRB/US, the Fed’s workhorse model of the US economy: What happens if total factor productivity growth from 2022-25 is 0.5 percentage points lower than currently expected? That would correspond to a slowdown in gross domestic product from the current 1.8% to 1.3% by 2025.</p><p>Lower potential growth would mean a more overheated economy and higher inflation. Assuming the Fed recognizes that and responds appropriately, FRB/US shows the federal funds rate would peak higher than the FOMC’s current baseline and stay higher for much longer. Our exercise shows that the Fed’s anticipated terminal rate would increase to 5% in 2023—considerably higher than the 4.6% suggested by September’s dot plot.</p><p>The Effect of Major Market Shocks</p><p>Bloomberg Economics’ view is that the market is overestimating the risk that a recession would stay the Fed’s hand. We think Powell has learned the lesson of the 1970s, when—aiming to support growth—the central bank prematurely paused its rate-hike cycle even though inflation remained uncomfortably high, with disastrous results. We expect the Fed to hold rates at our estimated 5% terminal rate through a US downturn in the second half of 2023.</p><p>Still, it’s not hard to identify significant risks on the horizon, from a collapse in US house prices and spillovers from the UK market turmoil, to the drag from a looming recession in Europe, to a hard landing in China. The Fed has shown time and again it’s willing to pause rate increases if the data warrant. In the 2013 European debt crisis and the 2015 China market meltdown, for example, the Fed delayed tightening because of turmoil from abroad. That could happen again.</p><p>Using SHOK—our in-house model of the US economy—we simulate a scenario where the US is hit by a combination of weaker global demand and increased financial turbulence, resulting in a spike in the VIX, wider credit spreads, a stronger dollar, and reduced exports. If that happens, that weaker demand will lower inflation and the Fed could get away with slightly less tightening than currently anticipated—with the fed funds rate at 4.1% in 2023 instead of 4.6%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fe17d1fa3c2cd0949089e9da449739e\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Officials at the central bank have recently shown a rare unanimity about the need to bring fed funds rates to the level indicated in the dot plot. Yet there’s growing criticism by analysts and market participants that the Fed’s preferred path is excessive. An alternative perspective is that the FOMC’s projection for fed funds rates is by no means excessively hawkish, and that various labor market characteristics suggest still more upside.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What If the Fed Has to Take Rates Up to 6%?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat If the Fed Has to Take Rates Up to 6%?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-16 14:41 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge and the extreme measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123011603","content_text":"The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge and the extreme measures the Federal Reserve will be forced to take to bring prices under control. When the Fed began raising rates in March, markets were pricing in a terminal rate of just 2.8%. As of mid-November, that expectation has risen to 5%—matching the forecast Bloomberg Economics set out in July.Could they be forced to do even more? Absolutely. If the Fed is underestimating the natural rate of unemployment, or if the pandemic has resulted in a significant deterioration in productivity, a terminal rate of 6% could come into view.There are also risks in the other direction, even if they’re less likely. It would take a lot more than the shocks to date, but a prolonged period of market mayhem—of the sort seen after the UK’s mini-budget fiscal fumble in September—might be enough to persuade the Fed to halt at a lower rate.At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee’s dot plot showed a higher trajectory of rate hikes, despite a deterioration in the growth outlook. A simple explanation for this anomaly is that the committee’s estimate of u*—alternatively called NAIRU, or the unemployment rate associated with price stability—has risen from the traditional 4%.The Bloomberg Economics rule—a modification of the classic Taylor rule that captures the relationship between unemployment, inflation, and Fed policy—can be used to work out an estimate of where the FOMC now puts u*. The u* values that best fit the September dot plot are 4.4% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 2024, and 4.0% in 2025. That suggests the FOMC sees u* as temporarily elevated and expects it to gradually fall back to the pre-pandemic norm in 2025.What if u* is even higher? A recent estimate by Fed staff put it in the 5%-to-6% range. Given the wrenching dislocations in labor markets that have resulted from the pandemic—with both companies and workers rethinking their priorities—that’s entirely plausible. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has said the natural rate of unemployment has “moved up materially.”Holding the committee’s inflation forecast constant, a u* estimate of 5% would mean a terminal rate of 6%.What Lower Productivity Growth Would BringBroader macroeconomic factors, such as a slowdown in productivity growth, could also push up u*. If workers demand faster wage growth than what companies can earn from their output—either to compensate for higher inflation or simply because they have the bargaining power—the result is higher unemployment. That’s what happened in the 1970s, when productivity gains fell below wage growth.Mainstream economists appear to believe the pandemic won’t result in a repeat performance. That assumption ignores some hard-learned lessons from the 1970s that linked high inflation to lower productivity:High inflation means a sharp shift in relative prices. Businesses that have optimized their production processes on the assumption of stable input costs may find their old approaches obsolete or inefficient.On their balance sheets, companies charge themselves for property, machinery, and other capital stock based on the equivalent rental price. High inflation raises the rental price, discouraging investment.Uncertainty about inflation and central bank rates—as well as factors like geopolitics—adds an additional hurdle for companies making costly long-term investments. A project that looks profitable today might not be tomorrow if borrowing costs continue to rise.All of those factors that weighed on productivity growth in the 1970s are also present today, suggesting a high risk that potential growth may be downshifting from its already low pace before the Covid-19 pandemic.To gauge the impact of slower growth, we conducted the following experiment using FRB/US, the Fed’s workhorse model of the US economy: What happens if total factor productivity growth from 2022-25 is 0.5 percentage points lower than currently expected? That would correspond to a slowdown in gross domestic product from the current 1.8% to 1.3% by 2025.Lower potential growth would mean a more overheated economy and higher inflation. Assuming the Fed recognizes that and responds appropriately, FRB/US shows the federal funds rate would peak higher than the FOMC’s current baseline and stay higher for much longer. Our exercise shows that the Fed’s anticipated terminal rate would increase to 5% in 2023—considerably higher than the 4.6% suggested by September’s dot plot.The Effect of Major Market ShocksBloomberg Economics’ view is that the market is overestimating the risk that a recession would stay the Fed’s hand. We think Powell has learned the lesson of the 1970s, when—aiming to support growth—the central bank prematurely paused its rate-hike cycle even though inflation remained uncomfortably high, with disastrous results. We expect the Fed to hold rates at our estimated 5% terminal rate through a US downturn in the second half of 2023.Still, it’s not hard to identify significant risks on the horizon, from a collapse in US house prices and spillovers from the UK market turmoil, to the drag from a looming recession in Europe, to a hard landing in China. The Fed has shown time and again it’s willing to pause rate increases if the data warrant. In the 2013 European debt crisis and the 2015 China market meltdown, for example, the Fed delayed tightening because of turmoil from abroad. That could happen again.Using SHOK—our in-house model of the US economy—we simulate a scenario where the US is hit by a combination of weaker global demand and increased financial turbulence, resulting in a spike in the VIX, wider credit spreads, a stronger dollar, and reduced exports. If that happens, that weaker demand will lower inflation and the Fed could get away with slightly less tightening than currently anticipated—with the fed funds rate at 4.1% in 2023 instead of 4.6%Officials at the central bank have recently shown a rare unanimity about the need to bring fed funds rates to the level indicated in the dot plot. Yet there’s growing criticism by analysts and market participants that the Fed’s preferred path is excessive. An alternative perspective is that the FOMC’s projection for fed funds rates is by no means excessively hawkish, and that various labor market characteristics suggest still more upside.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984344414,"gmtCreate":1667547015939,"gmtModify":1676537935675,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984344414","repostId":"2280852058","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986050054,"gmtCreate":1666860015879,"gmtModify":1676537818399,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] ","listText":"$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] ","text":"$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986050054","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910191935,"gmtCreate":1663570249527,"gmtModify":1676537292760,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] //<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4097199389075880\">@新西兰可可</a>: [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] //<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4097199389075880\">@新西兰可可</a>: [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] //@新西兰可可: [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910191935","repostId":"9910953505","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9910953505,"gmtCreate":1663549805907,"gmtModify":1676537287694,"author":{"id":"3584220801546703","authorId":"3584220801546703","name":"TulipCrane","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584220801546703","idStr":"3584220801546703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HST.SI\">$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$</a> no tomorrow liao, will it drop till liquidation and distribte funds to everyone? no sense at all","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HST.SI\">$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$</a> no tomorrow liao, will it drop till liquidation and distribte funds to everyone? no sense at all","text":"$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ no tomorrow liao, will it drop till liquidation and distribte funds to everyone? no sense at all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910953505","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":32,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995413598,"gmtCreate":1661495505416,"gmtModify":1676536530617,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK7508\">$Pharmaceutical Companies(BK7508)$</a>[Call] [Call] [Call] [Call] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK7508\">$Pharmaceutical Companies(BK7508)$</a>[Call] [Call] [Call] [Call] ","text":"$Pharmaceutical Companies(BK7508)$[Call] [Call] [Call] [Call]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995413598","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000005668,"gmtCreate":1638351212082,"gmtModify":1676533489833,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser] ","listText":"[Miser] ","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000005668","repostId":"2188084554","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2188084554","pubTimestamp":1638350124,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2188084554?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-01 17:15","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"供应宽松 LNG价格震荡下行","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188084554","media":"同花顺财经期货","summary":"北方气温相对平缓,除东北部分地区强降雪气温偏冷外,其他北方大部地区气温暂无明显下降。目前LNG市场供应较为宽松,价格有所下滑。据卓创资讯统计,截至11月30日,全国LNG市场实际成交均价 ...","content":"<p>北方气温相对平缓,除东北部分地区强降雪气温偏冷外,其他北方大部地区气温暂无明显下降。目前LNG市场供应较为宽松,价格有所下滑。据<img src=\"http://comment.10jqka.com.cn/sourcepic/12/17extag0tNfK0bYtsay.png\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"18\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">统计,截至11月30日,全国LNG市场实际成交均价为7280.67元/吨,对比11月1日的价格下跌931.57元/吨,跌幅11.34%,11月下旬以震荡下行为主。</p><p>供应上来看,11月30日国内LNG工厂开工负荷为48.95%,对比11月1日48.79%的开工负荷微幅上涨0.16个百分点。山东等地储备库对外出货,增加了市场LNG的供应。另外,从管道气气源来看,11月26日开始,呼图壁储气库向西气东输管网供气,日均最大采气量可达3000万立方米,大大保障了冬季天然气的供应。</p><p>需求上来看,近期表现较为疲软。从接收站出货上来看,对比11月1日出货量,11月30日出货明显下滑,其中华北地区下滑40%,华东地区下滑27%,华南地区下滑8%,LNG需求明显不振。一方面,北方气温相对平缓,城燃补库需求暂无增加;另一方面,部分地区的工业用户在错峰生产的调整下,存在减产停产的情况,LNG工业需求有所下降;再者,部分工业用户考虑LNG价格偏高,以及为避开冬季用气的高峰期,切换为其他替代能源。这些都对于目前LNG市场的需求产生了负面影响。</p><p>未来冷空气或将带来降温预期,但预计12月份大部分北方地区降温幅度有限,LNG发挥的调峰作用较小,今冬价格欠缺季节性需求的支撑;今冬整体水平偏高的LNG价格,使得工业用户和气头车辆的用气积极性不足;加之目前国内大型储气库以及小型储气调峰设施的储备较为充足,LNG的调峰需求增长有限。另外,从国际市场来看,受到变种病毒对于全球经济前景拖累的预期,国际原油大跌,天然气价格也难以独善其身。综合来看,短期内供大于求的局面或将持续,在下一轮强降温之前,预计整体LNG价格或将难有明显上涨。</p><p><b>关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">同花顺</a>财经(ths518),获取更多机会</b></p>","source":"ths_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>供应宽松 LNG价格震荡下行</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n供应宽松 LNG价格震荡下行\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-01 17:15 北京时间 <a href=http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20211201/c634724079.shtml><strong>同花顺财经期货</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北方气温相对平缓,除东北部分地区强降雪气温偏冷外,其他北方大部地区气温暂无明显下降。目前LNG市场供应较为宽松,价格有所下滑。据统计,截至11月30日,全国LNG市场实际成交均价为7280.67元/吨,对比11月1日的价格下跌931.57元/吨,跌幅11.34%,11月下旬以震荡下行为主。供应上来看,11月30日国内LNG工厂开工负荷为48.95%,对比11月1日48.79%的开工负荷微幅上涨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20211201/c634724079.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DGAZ":"三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","UNG":"美国天然气基金","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)"},"source_url":"http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20211201/c634724079.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188084554","content_text":"北方气温相对平缓,除东北部分地区强降雪气温偏冷外,其他北方大部地区气温暂无明显下降。目前LNG市场供应较为宽松,价格有所下滑。据统计,截至11月30日,全国LNG市场实际成交均价为7280.67元/吨,对比11月1日的价格下跌931.57元/吨,跌幅11.34%,11月下旬以震荡下行为主。供应上来看,11月30日国内LNG工厂开工负荷为48.95%,对比11月1日48.79%的开工负荷微幅上涨0.16个百分点。山东等地储备库对外出货,增加了市场LNG的供应。另外,从管道气气源来看,11月26日开始,呼图壁储气库向西气东输管网供气,日均最大采气量可达3000万立方米,大大保障了冬季天然气的供应。需求上来看,近期表现较为疲软。从接收站出货上来看,对比11月1日出货量,11月30日出货明显下滑,其中华北地区下滑40%,华东地区下滑27%,华南地区下滑8%,LNG需求明显不振。一方面,北方气温相对平缓,城燃补库需求暂无增加;另一方面,部分地区的工业用户在错峰生产的调整下,存在减产停产的情况,LNG工业需求有所下降;再者,部分工业用户考虑LNG价格偏高,以及为避开冬季用气的高峰期,切换为其他替代能源。这些都对于目前LNG市场的需求产生了负面影响。未来冷空气或将带来降温预期,但预计12月份大部分北方地区降温幅度有限,LNG发挥的调峰作用较小,今冬价格欠缺季节性需求的支撑;今冬整体水平偏高的LNG价格,使得工业用户和气头车辆的用气积极性不足;加之目前国内大型储气库以及小型储气调峰设施的储备较为充足,LNG的调峰需求增长有限。另外,从国际市场来看,受到变种病毒对于全球经济前景拖累的预期,国际原油大跌,天然气价格也难以独善其身。综合来看,短期内供大于求的局面或将持续,在下一轮强降温之前,预计整体LNG价格或将难有明显上涨。关注同花顺财经(ths518),获取更多机会","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980338244,"gmtCreate":1665646678088,"gmtModify":1676537642171,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] ","listText":"[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] ","text":"[Happy] [Happy] 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recession, stagflation","htmlText":"What is inflation?It is the rising of prices of the services / products over the year. For example, you can buy a chicken burger for 2 dollars in 2020, now it costs 4 dollars.What is recession?In general terms, it means that the economy is not doing well and the GDP declines.What is stagflation?Stagflation means that the economy has been stagnant, high inflation and low employment rate.Where are we right now?Yes, we are currently in the red bear market right now. The Nasdaq has fallen over 30% since Jan. Inflation and recession are common words we will be hearing when we are in a bear market. I feel that we are in a stagflation phase right now. In the latest Fed updates, there is an slight increase in consumer spending, however it is still very far from the pre-covid era. The unemployment","listText":"What is inflation?It is the rising of prices of the services / products over the year. For example, you can buy a chicken burger for 2 dollars in 2020, now it costs 4 dollars.What is recession?In general terms, it means that the economy is not doing well and the GDP declines.What is stagflation?Stagflation means that the economy has been stagnant, high inflation and low employment rate.Where are we right now?Yes, we are currently in the red bear market right now. The Nasdaq has fallen over 30% since Jan. Inflation and recession are common words we will be hearing when we are in a bear market. I feel that we are in a stagflation phase right now. In the latest Fed updates, there is an slight increase in consumer spending, however it is still very far from the pre-covid era. The unemployment","text":"What is inflation?It is the rising of prices of the services / products over the year. For example, you can buy a chicken burger for 2 dollars in 2020, now it costs 4 dollars.What is recession?In general terms, it means that the economy is not doing well and the GDP declines.What is stagflation?Stagflation means that the economy has been stagnant, high inflation and low employment rate.Where are we right now?Yes, we are currently in the red bear market right now. The Nasdaq has fallen over 30% since Jan. Inflation and recession are common words we will be hearing when we are in a bear market. I feel that we are in a stagflation phase right now. In the latest Fed updates, there is an slight increase in consumer spending, however it is still very far from the pre-covid era. The unemployment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046811375","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963338893,"gmtCreate":1668588723713,"gmtModify":1676538080833,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心] ","listText":"[开心] ","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963338893","repostId":"2283229569","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963338140,"gmtCreate":1668588714280,"gmtModify":1676538080831,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963338140","repostId":"2283229569","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963331251,"gmtCreate":1668588661274,"gmtModify":1676538080807,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963331251","repostId":"2283224809","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2283224809","pubTimestamp":1668578842,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2283224809?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-16 14:07","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Musk to testify at trial over his US$50 billion Tesla compensation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2283224809","media":"CNA:","summary":"Musk to testify at trial over his US$50 billion Tesla compensation","content":"<div>\n<p>Musk to testify at trial over his US$50 billion Tesla compensation</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://t.co/fsE9Xwkjk4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"redbox_twitter","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk to testify at trial over his US$50 billion Tesla compensation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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