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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-16
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-16
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-16
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-16
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-16
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What If the Fed Has to Take Rates Up to 6%?
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-04
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The adjustment of heavy index constituent stocks is imminent. Which companies will receive funds to "passively buy"?
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-04
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@WallStreet_Tiger:Oil &Gas Explorers: VOC, TPL, BSM, COP, APA &PR Hit New Highs!
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-03
😙😙
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-11-01
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-27
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Encyclopedia:美股上市指南
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-27
$AAPL 20221028 145.0 CALL$
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-27
$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-27
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Live Streaming: 经济萧条之际,投防守型股票可选哪些?
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-27
$苹果(AAPL)$
[开心] [开心]
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-26
[Smile]
@LMSunshine:Markets Priced in May’23 Hike As Fed Tackles High Inflation
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-26
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@CaptainTiger:[TOPIC] Where & When Will Hang Seng Index Bottom?
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-26
[Happy]
@TigerObserver:💡 Stocks of the week (16 OCT- 22 OCT)
新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-17
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-10-13
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新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨
2022-09-19
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Go to Tiger App to see more news
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[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963306391","repostId":"1123011603","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123011603","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668580886,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123011603?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-16 14:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What If the Fed Has to Take Rates Up to 6%?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123011603","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of th","content":"<div>\n<p>The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge and the extreme measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What If the Fed Has to Take Rates Up to 6%?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat If the Fed Has to Take Rates Up to 6%?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-16 14:41 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge and the extreme measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123011603","content_text":"The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge and the extreme measures the Federal Reserve will be forced to take to bring prices under control. When the Fed began raising rates in March, markets were pricing in a terminal rate of just 2.8%. As of mid-November, that expectation has risen to 5%—matching the forecast Bloomberg Economics set out in July.Could they be forced to do even more? Absolutely. If the Fed is underestimating the natural rate of unemployment, or if the pandemic has resulted in a significant deterioration in productivity, a terminal rate of 6% could come into view.There are also risks in the other direction, even if they’re less likely. It would take a lot more than the shocks to date, but a prolonged period of market mayhem—of the sort seen after the UK’s mini-budget fiscal fumble in September—might be enough to persuade the Fed to halt at a lower rate.At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee’s dot plot showed a higher trajectory of rate hikes, despite a deterioration in the growth outlook. A simple explanation for this anomaly is that the committee’s estimate of u*—alternatively called NAIRU, or the unemployment rate associated with price stability—has risen from the traditional 4%.The Bloomberg Economics rule—a modification of the classic Taylor rule that captures the relationship between unemployment, inflation, and Fed policy—can be used to work out an estimate of where the FOMC now puts u*. The u* values that best fit the September dot plot are 4.4% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 2024, and 4.0% in 2025. That suggests the FOMC sees u* as temporarily elevated and expects it to gradually fall back to the pre-pandemic norm in 2025.What if u* is even higher? A recent estimate by Fed staff put it in the 5%-to-6% range. Given the wrenching dislocations in labor markets that have resulted from the pandemic—with both companies and workers rethinking their priorities—that’s entirely plausible. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has said the natural rate of unemployment has “moved up materially.”Holding the committee’s inflation forecast constant, a u* estimate of 5% would mean a terminal rate of 6%.What Lower Productivity Growth Would BringBroader macroeconomic factors, such as a slowdown in productivity growth, could also push up u*. If workers demand faster wage growth than what companies can earn from their output—either to compensate for higher inflation or simply because they have the bargaining power—the result is higher unemployment. That’s what happened in the 1970s, when productivity gains fell below wage growth.Mainstream economists appear to believe the pandemic won’t result in a repeat performance. That assumption ignores some hard-learned lessons from the 1970s that linked high inflation to lower productivity:High inflation means a sharp shift in relative prices. Businesses that have optimized their production processes on the assumption of stable input costs may find their old approaches obsolete or inefficient.On their balance sheets, companies charge themselves for property, machinery, and other capital stock based on the equivalent rental price. High inflation raises the rental price, discouraging investment.Uncertainty about inflation and central bank rates—as well as factors like geopolitics—adds an additional hurdle for companies making costly long-term investments. A project that looks profitable today might not be tomorrow if borrowing costs continue to rise.All of those factors that weighed on productivity growth in the 1970s are also present today, suggesting a high risk that potential growth may be downshifting from its already low pace before the Covid-19 pandemic.To gauge the impact of slower growth, we conducted the following experiment using FRB/US, the Fed’s workhorse model of the US economy: What happens if total factor productivity growth from 2022-25 is 0.5 percentage points lower than currently expected? That would correspond to a slowdown in gross domestic product from the current 1.8% to 1.3% by 2025.Lower potential growth would mean a more overheated economy and higher inflation. Assuming the Fed recognizes that and responds appropriately, FRB/US shows the federal funds rate would peak higher than the FOMC’s current baseline and stay higher for much longer. Our exercise shows that the Fed’s anticipated terminal rate would increase to 5% in 2023—considerably higher than the 4.6% suggested by September’s dot plot.The Effect of Major Market ShocksBloomberg Economics’ view is that the market is overestimating the risk that a recession would stay the Fed’s hand. We think Powell has learned the lesson of the 1970s, when—aiming to support growth—the central bank prematurely paused its rate-hike cycle even though inflation remained uncomfortably high, with disastrous results. We expect the Fed to hold rates at our estimated 5% terminal rate through a US downturn in the second half of 2023.Still, it’s not hard to identify significant risks on the horizon, from a collapse in US house prices and spillovers from the UK market turmoil, to the drag from a looming recession in Europe, to a hard landing in China. The Fed has shown time and again it’s willing to pause rate increases if the data warrant. In the 2013 European debt crisis and the 2015 China market meltdown, for example, the Fed delayed tightening because of turmoil from abroad. That could happen again.Using SHOK—our in-house model of the US economy—we simulate a scenario where the US is hit by a combination of weaker global demand and increased financial turbulence, resulting in a spike in the VIX, wider credit spreads, a stronger dollar, and reduced exports. If that happens, that weaker demand will lower inflation and the Fed could get away with slightly less tightening than currently anticipated—with the fed funds rate at 4.1% in 2023 instead of 4.6%Officials at the central bank have recently shown a rare unanimity about the need to bring fed funds rates to the level indicated in the dot plot. Yet there’s growing criticism by analysts and market participants that the Fed’s preferred path is excessive. An alternative perspective is that the FOMC’s projection for fed funds rates is by no means excessively hawkish, and that various labor market characteristics suggest still more upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984344414,"gmtCreate":1667547015939,"gmtModify":1676537935675,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984344414","repostId":"2280852058","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2280852058","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667546257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2280852058?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 15:17","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The adjustment of heavy index constituent stocks is imminent. Which companies will receive funds to \"passively buy\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2280852058","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一般来说,中证系列、上证系列指数将在6月及12月的中旬定期调整其样本股,调整方案会提前两周进行公告。历史经验来看,预测窗口期通常有一个月时间,如今面临成分股调整窗口到来,各大券商也均对个股作出预判。从","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Generally speaking, CSI Series and SSE Series indexes will regularly adjust their sample stocks in June and mid-December, and the adjustment plan will be announced two weeks in advance.</p><p>Historically, the forecast window usually lasts for one month. Now, facing the adjustment window of constituent stocks, all major brokers have also made predictions on individual stocks.</p><p>From the index point of view, SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, CSI 300, CSI 500 and other indexes will all be within the scope of this round of adjustment. Among them, CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index have a large number of survival tracking products and a large scale. As the star index of the market, every adjustment of their constituent stocks will attract investors' attention.</p><p><h2><b>Prediction in advance may bring excess returns</b></h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Through the advance forecast of the adjustment list, arbitrage investors can capture the excess returns brought by the index inclusion effect by predicting the adjustment list of constituent stocks in advance; Investors in Lu-Hong Kong Stock Connect can grasp the changes in the range of investment in advance by predicting the adjustment of constituent stocks.</p><p>Huachuang Securities pointed out that the adjustment event of index constituent stocks is also called index effect, which will produce price effect and volume effect. As sample stocks are transferred in and out, funds and investors tracking the index will adjust their positions accordingly, which may have an important impact on the price and volume of transferred stocks.</p><p>Generally speaking, the price and trading volume of newly transferred and transferred stocks will change after the adjustment list is announced. For the newly transferred constituent stocks, the stock price and trading volume will rise; For transferred stocks, the performance is a decline in stock price and a decrease in trading volume.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1448c26d9c6f333e5b00f31fba240696\" tg-width=\"1377\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>According to statistics, within a period of time after the announcement date, the inclusion of stocks can still obtain significant excess returns, and the inclusion target has obvious excess returns within 10 days after the adjustment announcement date, and the excess returns will be gradually weakened after more than ten trading days.</p><p>On the contrary, after the sample stock is removed from the constituent stocks of the index, its stock price shows a significant weakening characteristic within 15 days after the adjustment announcement date.</p><p><h2><b>What companies are involved?</b></h2>As the standard of adjustment of index sample stocks is certain, the forecasts of various securities trademarks are roughly similar, except for individual companies and slightly different quantities.</p><p>In terms of quantity, CICC, Huachuang and Xingye all expect that 14 stocks in CSI 300 will be adjusted.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06099\">China Merchants Securities</a>Kaiyuan Securities believes that the number of stocks adjusted is 18.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867555a67cf53772e0f515b52f778684\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Specifically, most of the targets that CICC, Xingye and Huachuang are expected to transfer are the same, and the only difference is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600702\">Shede Liquor Industry</a>CICC and Huachuang both expect it to be transferred, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Then the subject matter to be included is considered to be<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">Meijin Energy</a>。</p><p>Compared with the first three, Kaiyuan Securities and China Merchants have four more targets, and both are expected to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601607\">Shanghai Pharmaceuticals</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688180\">Junshi Biotech</a>Will also be included in this adjustment.</p><p>In terms of elimination, there is little difference in the results predicted by each brokerage house. The 14 targets expected to be eliminated by CICC, Xingye, Huachuang and Kaiyuan are completely the same, while China Merchants is expected to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601825\">Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank</a>Will not be included in this elimination sequence, should be<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Shares</a>。</p><p>In addition, the other four targets that open source and investment are expected to be eliminated are also exactly the same.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d03674819199d407a860dea221a6c5\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Combined with the industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>It said that power equipment, new energy, food and beverage and other industries were included in the top, while medicine, banking and other industries were excluded more.</p><p>In terms of CSI 500, it is expected that 50 stocks of Xingye, China Merchants, Huachuang, Kaiyuan and CICC will be transferred in or out. In the industry, the number of constituent stocks in electronics, basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy industries has increased, while the number of constituent stocks in transportation, steel, real estate and other industries has declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65a2944d06e15be6d1ae88d628613dcd\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"901\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The adjustment of heavy index constituent stocks is imminent. Which companies will receive funds to \"passively buy\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe adjustment of heavy index constituent stocks is imminent. Which companies will receive funds to \"passively buy\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-04 15:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Generally speaking, CSI Series and SSE Series indexes will regularly adjust their sample stocks in June and mid-December, and the adjustment plan will be announced two weeks in advance.</p><p>Historically, the forecast window usually lasts for one month. Now, facing the adjustment window of constituent stocks, all major brokers have also made predictions on individual stocks.</p><p>From the index point of view, SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, CSI 300, CSI 500 and other indexes will all be within the scope of this round of adjustment. Among them, CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index have a large number of survival tracking products and a large scale. As the star index of the market, every adjustment of their constituent stocks will attract investors' attention.</p><p><h2><b>Prediction in advance may bring excess returns</b></h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Through the advance forecast of the adjustment list, arbitrage investors can capture the excess returns brought by the index inclusion effect by predicting the adjustment list of constituent stocks in advance; Investors in Lu-Hong Kong Stock Connect can grasp the changes in the range of investment in advance by predicting the adjustment of constituent stocks.</p><p>Huachuang Securities pointed out that the adjustment event of index constituent stocks is also called index effect, which will produce price effect and volume effect. As sample stocks are transferred in and out, funds and investors tracking the index will adjust their positions accordingly, which may have an important impact on the price and volume of transferred stocks.</p><p>Generally speaking, the price and trading volume of newly transferred and transferred stocks will change after the adjustment list is announced. For the newly transferred constituent stocks, the stock price and trading volume will rise; For transferred stocks, the performance is a decline in stock price and a decrease in trading volume.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1448c26d9c6f333e5b00f31fba240696\" tg-width=\"1377\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>According to statistics, within a period of time after the announcement date, the inclusion of stocks can still obtain significant excess returns, and the inclusion target has obvious excess returns within 10 days after the adjustment announcement date, and the excess returns will be gradually weakened after more than ten trading days.</p><p>On the contrary, after the sample stock is removed from the constituent stocks of the index, its stock price shows a significant weakening characteristic within 15 days after the adjustment announcement date.</p><p><h2><b>What companies are involved?</b></h2>As the standard of adjustment of index sample stocks is certain, the forecasts of various securities trademarks are roughly similar, except for individual companies and slightly different quantities.</p><p>In terms of quantity, CICC, Huachuang and Xingye all expect that 14 stocks in CSI 300 will be adjusted.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06099\">China Merchants Securities</a>Kaiyuan Securities believes that the number of stocks adjusted is 18.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867555a67cf53772e0f515b52f778684\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Specifically, most of the targets that CICC, Xingye and Huachuang are expected to transfer are the same, and the only difference is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600702\">Shede Liquor Industry</a>CICC and Huachuang both expect it to be transferred, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Then the subject matter to be included is considered to be<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">Meijin Energy</a>。</p><p>Compared with the first three, Kaiyuan Securities and China Merchants have four more targets, and both are expected to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601607\">Shanghai Pharmaceuticals</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688180\">Junshi Biotech</a>Will also be included in this adjustment.</p><p>In terms of elimination, there is little difference in the results predicted by each brokerage house. The 14 targets expected to be eliminated by CICC, Xingye, Huachuang and Kaiyuan are completely the same, while China Merchants is expected to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601825\">Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank</a>Will not be included in this elimination sequence, should be<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Shares</a>。</p><p>In addition, the other four targets that open source and investment are expected to be eliminated are also exactly the same.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d03674819199d407a860dea221a6c5\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Combined with the industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>It said that power equipment, new energy, food and beverage and other industries were included in the top, while medicine, banking and other industries were excluded more.</p><p>In terms of CSI 500, it is expected that 50 stocks of Xingye, China Merchants, Huachuang, Kaiyuan and CICC will be transferred in or out. In the industry, the number of constituent stocks in electronics, basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy industries has increased, while the number of constituent stocks in transportation, steel, real estate and other industries has declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65a2944d06e15be6d1ae88d628613dcd\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"901\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674123\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640e98458f00668ccdcb478768943e35","relate_stocks":{"000016.SH":"上证50"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674123","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2280852058","content_text":"一般来说,中证系列、上证系列指数将在6月及12月的中旬定期调整其样本股,调整方案会提前两周进行公告。历史经验来看,预测窗口期通常有一个月时间,如今面临成分股调整窗口到来,各大券商也均对个股作出预判。从指数来看,上证50、上证180、上证380、沪深300、中证500等指数均将在本轮调整范围。其中沪深300指数和中证500指数存续跟踪产品数量多,规模大,作为市场的明星指数,二者成分股的每次调整均会引起投资者的关注。提前预判或可带来超额收益中金公司表示,通过对调整名单的提前预测,套利投资者可通过提前预测成分股调整名单,捕捉指数纳入效应带来的超额收益;陆股通投资者则可通过对成分股调整的预判,提前把握可投范围的变化。华创证券指出,指数成分股调整事件也被称为指数效应,会产生价格效应和成交量效应。随着样本股的调入调出,跟踪该指数的基金和投资者会对持仓做出相应的调整,从而可能会对调入调出的股票价格和成交量产生重要影响。一般来说,新调入和调出股票的价格和成交量会在调整名单公布后出现变动,对于调入的新成分股,会出现股价上涨和交易量上升的情况;对于调出的股票,则表现为股价下跌与交易量减少。此外,据招商证券统计,在公告日后的一段时间内,纳入股票仍能够获得显著的超额收益,纳入标的在调整公告日后的10日之内存在明显的超额收益,而在之后的十多个交易日后超额收益又会被逐渐弱化。相对的,样本股从指数成分股中剔除后,其股票价格在调整公告日之后的15日内呈现出了显著减弱的特征。涉及哪些公司?由于指数样本股调整的标准是确定的,所以各家券商标的预测大致相似,只有个别公司及数量稍有区别。从数量上看,中金、华创、兴业均预计沪深300有14只个股调整,招商证券、开源证券认为被调整的个股数量有18只。具体来看,中金、兴业、华创预计将调入的绝大部分标的均相同,唯一区别的一只个股是舍得酒业,中金、华创均预计其将被调入,而兴业证券则认为被纳入的标的为美锦能源。与前三者相比,开源证券和招商多出四只标的,二者均预计上海医药和君实生物也将被纳入此次调整之中。剔除方面,各家券商彼此之家预测的结果差异不大,中金、兴业、华创、开源预计被剔除的14只标的完全一致,而招商则预计沪农商行不会被纳入此次剔除序列当中,应当是盐湖股份。除此之外,开源与招商预计被剔除的另外4只标的也完全一致。结合行业来看,中金公司表示,电力设备新能源、食品饮料等行业被纳入居前,而医药、银行等行业被剔除数较多。中证500方面,兴业、招商、华创、开源、中金均预计将有50只个股将被调入或调出,行业中,电子、基础化工、电力设备新能源等行业成分股数量提升,交运、钢铁、房地产等行业成分股数量下滑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000016.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984345025,"gmtCreate":1667546223667,"gmtModify":1676537935610,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984345025","repostId":"9984355792","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9984355792,"gmtCreate":1667543690717,"gmtModify":1676537935238,"author":{"id":"9000000000000419","authorId":"9000000000000419","name":"WallStreet_Tiger","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1fdbba25bcf5dea3f281241ba1320d10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000419","idStr":"9000000000000419"},"themes":[],"title":"Oil &Gas Explorers: VOC, TPL, BSM, COP, APA &PR Hit New Highs!","htmlText":"On thursday trading, Oil & Gas Exploration and Production industry top the increase among the whole market industries. Then Intergrated Oil & Gas Industry see 1.54% increase.Energy sector has been the best performed area in recent year. Due to war and inflation reasons. And you may ask , does energy sector will continue to rise? What stocks you should add to watchlist?Welcome to Read:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2278626227\" target=\"_blank\">10 Energy Stocks To Buy On t</a>","listText":"On thursday trading, Oil & Gas Exploration and Production industry top the increase among the whole market industries. Then Intergrated Oil & Gas Industry see 1.54% increase.Energy sector has been the best performed area in recent year. Due to war and inflation reasons. And you may ask , does energy sector will continue to rise? What stocks you should add to watchlist?Welcome to Read:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2278626227\" target=\"_blank\">10 Energy Stocks To Buy On t</a>","text":"On thursday trading, Oil & Gas Exploration and Production industry top the increase among the whole market industries. Then Intergrated Oil & Gas Industry see 1.54% increase.Energy sector has been the best performed area in recent year. Due to war and inflation reasons. And you may ask , does energy sector will continue to rise? What stocks you should add to watchlist?Welcome to Read:10 Energy Stocks To Buy On 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[开心] ","listText":"[开心] [开心] ","text":"[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985086936","repostId":"100008","repostType":11,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986990301,"gmtCreate":1666871456203,"gmtModify":1676537820266,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心] [开心] [开心] ","listText":"[开心] [开心] [开心] ","text":"[开心] [开心] 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[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"$AAPL 20221028 145.0 CALL$[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986050229","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986050054,"gmtCreate":1666860015879,"gmtModify":1676537818399,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] ","listText":"$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] ","text":"$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986050054","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986081558,"gmtCreate":1666852050375,"gmtModify":1676537817174,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] 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投资者可参考哪些防守型股票呢?","description_html_en":"","source_url":"https://lpl27170.laohu8.com/live/fanyiming.m3u8","video_url":"","live_img_url":"https://p1-live.byteimg.com/tos-cn-i-gjr78lqtd0/9b5df1ea5b034220ba46004e1834ccf6~tplv-gjr78lqtd0-image.image","live_img_url_en":"","activate_content":true,"expected_time":1666783800000,"time_remain":-115014222529,"start_time":0,"end_time":1666786941,"user_counter":"87","symbols":[],"speaker_info":[{"name":"邹咏翰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2abf7014742f3e282e9781e945db75b0","uuid":"3558908080415665"}],"abstract":[]},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986081100,"gmtCreate":1666851919000,"gmtModify":1676537817157,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986081100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988210291,"gmtCreate":1666755880413,"gmtModify":1676537801415,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097228630086560","idStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Smile]","listText":"[Smile]","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988210291","repostId":"9981978307","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9981978307,"gmtCreate":1666395380410,"gmtModify":1676537750491,"author":{"id":"4113904591642392","authorId":"4113904591642392","name":"LMSunshine","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ad636f2490d8428fcee9da6d669e46c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4113904591642392","idStr":"4113904591642392"},"themes":[],"title":"Markets 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ha"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963306391,"gmtCreate":1668581762513,"gmtModify":1676538079821,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser] [Miser] ","listText":"[Miser] [Miser] ","text":"[Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963306391","repostId":"1123011603","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123011603","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668580886,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123011603?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-16 14:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What If the Fed Has to Take Rates Up to 6%?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123011603","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of th","content":"<div>\n<p>The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge and the extreme measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What If the Fed Has to Take Rates Up to 6%?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat If the Fed Has to Take Rates Up to 6%?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-16 14:41 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge and the extreme measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/what-if-the-fed-has-to-take-rates-up-to-6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123011603","content_text":"The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge and the extreme measures the Federal Reserve will be forced to take to bring prices under control. When the Fed began raising rates in March, markets were pricing in a terminal rate of just 2.8%. As of mid-November, that expectation has risen to 5%—matching the forecast Bloomberg Economics set out in July.Could they be forced to do even more? Absolutely. If the Fed is underestimating the natural rate of unemployment, or if the pandemic has resulted in a significant deterioration in productivity, a terminal rate of 6% could come into view.There are also risks in the other direction, even if they’re less likely. It would take a lot more than the shocks to date, but a prolonged period of market mayhem—of the sort seen after the UK’s mini-budget fiscal fumble in September—might be enough to persuade the Fed to halt at a lower rate.At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee’s dot plot showed a higher trajectory of rate hikes, despite a deterioration in the growth outlook. A simple explanation for this anomaly is that the committee’s estimate of u*—alternatively called NAIRU, or the unemployment rate associated with price stability—has risen from the traditional 4%.The Bloomberg Economics rule—a modification of the classic Taylor rule that captures the relationship between unemployment, inflation, and Fed policy—can be used to work out an estimate of where the FOMC now puts u*. The u* values that best fit the September dot plot are 4.4% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 2024, and 4.0% in 2025. That suggests the FOMC sees u* as temporarily elevated and expects it to gradually fall back to the pre-pandemic norm in 2025.What if u* is even higher? A recent estimate by Fed staff put it in the 5%-to-6% range. Given the wrenching dislocations in labor markets that have resulted from the pandemic—with both companies and workers rethinking their priorities—that’s entirely plausible. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has said the natural rate of unemployment has “moved up materially.”Holding the committee’s inflation forecast constant, a u* estimate of 5% would mean a terminal rate of 6%.What Lower Productivity Growth Would BringBroader macroeconomic factors, such as a slowdown in productivity growth, could also push up u*. If workers demand faster wage growth than what companies can earn from their output—either to compensate for higher inflation or simply because they have the bargaining power—the result is higher unemployment. That’s what happened in the 1970s, when productivity gains fell below wage growth.Mainstream economists appear to believe the pandemic won’t result in a repeat performance. That assumption ignores some hard-learned lessons from the 1970s that linked high inflation to lower productivity:High inflation means a sharp shift in relative prices. Businesses that have optimized their production processes on the assumption of stable input costs may find their old approaches obsolete or inefficient.On their balance sheets, companies charge themselves for property, machinery, and other capital stock based on the equivalent rental price. High inflation raises the rental price, discouraging investment.Uncertainty about inflation and central bank rates—as well as factors like geopolitics—adds an additional hurdle for companies making costly long-term investments. A project that looks profitable today might not be tomorrow if borrowing costs continue to rise.All of those factors that weighed on productivity growth in the 1970s are also present today, suggesting a high risk that potential growth may be downshifting from its already low pace before the Covid-19 pandemic.To gauge the impact of slower growth, we conducted the following experiment using FRB/US, the Fed’s workhorse model of the US economy: What happens if total factor productivity growth from 2022-25 is 0.5 percentage points lower than currently expected? That would correspond to a slowdown in gross domestic product from the current 1.8% to 1.3% by 2025.Lower potential growth would mean a more overheated economy and higher inflation. Assuming the Fed recognizes that and responds appropriately, FRB/US shows the federal funds rate would peak higher than the FOMC’s current baseline and stay higher for much longer. Our exercise shows that the Fed’s anticipated terminal rate would increase to 5% in 2023—considerably higher than the 4.6% suggested by September’s dot plot.The Effect of Major Market ShocksBloomberg Economics’ view is that the market is overestimating the risk that a recession would stay the Fed’s hand. We think Powell has learned the lesson of the 1970s, when—aiming to support growth—the central bank prematurely paused its rate-hike cycle even though inflation remained uncomfortably high, with disastrous results. We expect the Fed to hold rates at our estimated 5% terminal rate through a US downturn in the second half of 2023.Still, it’s not hard to identify significant risks on the horizon, from a collapse in US house prices and spillovers from the UK market turmoil, to the drag from a looming recession in Europe, to a hard landing in China. The Fed has shown time and again it’s willing to pause rate increases if the data warrant. In the 2013 European debt crisis and the 2015 China market meltdown, for example, the Fed delayed tightening because of turmoil from abroad. That could happen again.Using SHOK—our in-house model of the US economy—we simulate a scenario where the US is hit by a combination of weaker global demand and increased financial turbulence, resulting in a spike in the VIX, wider credit spreads, a stronger dollar, and reduced exports. If that happens, that weaker demand will lower inflation and the Fed could get away with slightly less tightening than currently anticipated—with the fed funds rate at 4.1% in 2023 instead of 4.6%Officials at the central bank have recently shown a rare unanimity about the need to bring fed funds rates to the level indicated in the dot plot. Yet there’s growing criticism by analysts and market participants that the Fed’s preferred path is excessive. An alternative perspective is that the FOMC’s projection for fed funds rates is by no means excessively hawkish, and that various labor market characteristics suggest still more upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984344414,"gmtCreate":1667547015939,"gmtModify":1676537935675,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984344414","repostId":"2280852058","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2280852058","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667546257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2280852058?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 15:17","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The adjustment of heavy index constituent stocks is imminent. Which companies will receive funds to \"passively buy\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2280852058","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一般来说,中证系列、上证系列指数将在6月及12月的中旬定期调整其样本股,调整方案会提前两周进行公告。历史经验来看,预测窗口期通常有一个月时间,如今面临成分股调整窗口到来,各大券商也均对个股作出预判。从","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Generally speaking, CSI Series and SSE Series indexes will regularly adjust their sample stocks in June and mid-December, and the adjustment plan will be announced two weeks in advance.</p><p>Historically, the forecast window usually lasts for one month. Now, facing the adjustment window of constituent stocks, all major brokers have also made predictions on individual stocks.</p><p>From the index point of view, SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, CSI 300, CSI 500 and other indexes will all be within the scope of this round of adjustment. Among them, CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index have a large number of survival tracking products and a large scale. As the star index of the market, every adjustment of their constituent stocks will attract investors' attention.</p><p><h2><b>Prediction in advance may bring excess returns</b></h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Through the advance forecast of the adjustment list, arbitrage investors can capture the excess returns brought by the index inclusion effect by predicting the adjustment list of constituent stocks in advance; Investors in Lu-Hong Kong Stock Connect can grasp the changes in the range of investment in advance by predicting the adjustment of constituent stocks.</p><p>Huachuang Securities pointed out that the adjustment event of index constituent stocks is also called index effect, which will produce price effect and volume effect. As sample stocks are transferred in and out, funds and investors tracking the index will adjust their positions accordingly, which may have an important impact on the price and volume of transferred stocks.</p><p>Generally speaking, the price and trading volume of newly transferred and transferred stocks will change after the adjustment list is announced. For the newly transferred constituent stocks, the stock price and trading volume will rise; For transferred stocks, the performance is a decline in stock price and a decrease in trading volume.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1448c26d9c6f333e5b00f31fba240696\" tg-width=\"1377\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>According to statistics, within a period of time after the announcement date, the inclusion of stocks can still obtain significant excess returns, and the inclusion target has obvious excess returns within 10 days after the adjustment announcement date, and the excess returns will be gradually weakened after more than ten trading days.</p><p>On the contrary, after the sample stock is removed from the constituent stocks of the index, its stock price shows a significant weakening characteristic within 15 days after the adjustment announcement date.</p><p><h2><b>What companies are involved?</b></h2>As the standard of adjustment of index sample stocks is certain, the forecasts of various securities trademarks are roughly similar, except for individual companies and slightly different quantities.</p><p>In terms of quantity, CICC, Huachuang and Xingye all expect that 14 stocks in CSI 300 will be adjusted.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06099\">China Merchants Securities</a>Kaiyuan Securities believes that the number of stocks adjusted is 18.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867555a67cf53772e0f515b52f778684\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Specifically, most of the targets that CICC, Xingye and Huachuang are expected to transfer are the same, and the only difference is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600702\">Shede Liquor Industry</a>CICC and Huachuang both expect it to be transferred, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Then the subject matter to be included is considered to be<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">Meijin Energy</a>。</p><p>Compared with the first three, Kaiyuan Securities and China Merchants have four more targets, and both are expected to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601607\">Shanghai Pharmaceuticals</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688180\">Junshi Biotech</a>Will also be included in this adjustment.</p><p>In terms of elimination, there is little difference in the results predicted by each brokerage house. The 14 targets expected to be eliminated by CICC, Xingye, Huachuang and Kaiyuan are completely the same, while China Merchants is expected to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601825\">Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank</a>Will not be included in this elimination sequence, should be<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Shares</a>。</p><p>In addition, the other four targets that open source and investment are expected to be eliminated are also exactly the same.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d03674819199d407a860dea221a6c5\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Combined with the industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>It said that power equipment, new energy, food and beverage and other industries were included in the top, while medicine, banking and other industries were excluded more.</p><p>In terms of CSI 500, it is expected that 50 stocks of Xingye, China Merchants, Huachuang, Kaiyuan and CICC will be transferred in or out. In the industry, the number of constituent stocks in electronics, basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy industries has increased, while the number of constituent stocks in transportation, steel, real estate and other industries has declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65a2944d06e15be6d1ae88d628613dcd\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"901\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The adjustment of heavy index constituent stocks is imminent. Which companies will receive funds to \"passively buy\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe adjustment of heavy index constituent stocks is imminent. Which companies will receive funds to \"passively buy\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-04 15:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Generally speaking, CSI Series and SSE Series indexes will regularly adjust their sample stocks in June and mid-December, and the adjustment plan will be announced two weeks in advance.</p><p>Historically, the forecast window usually lasts for one month. Now, facing the adjustment window of constituent stocks, all major brokers have also made predictions on individual stocks.</p><p>From the index point of view, SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, CSI 300, CSI 500 and other indexes will all be within the scope of this round of adjustment. Among them, CSI 300 Index and CSI 500 Index have a large number of survival tracking products and a large scale. As the star index of the market, every adjustment of their constituent stocks will attract investors' attention.</p><p><h2><b>Prediction in advance may bring excess returns</b></h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Through the advance forecast of the adjustment list, arbitrage investors can capture the excess returns brought by the index inclusion effect by predicting the adjustment list of constituent stocks in advance; Investors in Lu-Hong Kong Stock Connect can grasp the changes in the range of investment in advance by predicting the adjustment of constituent stocks.</p><p>Huachuang Securities pointed out that the adjustment event of index constituent stocks is also called index effect, which will produce price effect and volume effect. As sample stocks are transferred in and out, funds and investors tracking the index will adjust their positions accordingly, which may have an important impact on the price and volume of transferred stocks.</p><p>Generally speaking, the price and trading volume of newly transferred and transferred stocks will change after the adjustment list is announced. For the newly transferred constituent stocks, the stock price and trading volume will rise; For transferred stocks, the performance is a decline in stock price and a decrease in trading volume.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1448c26d9c6f333e5b00f31fba240696\" tg-width=\"1377\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>According to statistics, within a period of time after the announcement date, the inclusion of stocks can still obtain significant excess returns, and the inclusion target has obvious excess returns within 10 days after the adjustment announcement date, and the excess returns will be gradually weakened after more than ten trading days.</p><p>On the contrary, after the sample stock is removed from the constituent stocks of the index, its stock price shows a significant weakening characteristic within 15 days after the adjustment announcement date.</p><p><h2><b>What companies are involved?</b></h2>As the standard of adjustment of index sample stocks is certain, the forecasts of various securities trademarks are roughly similar, except for individual companies and slightly different quantities.</p><p>In terms of quantity, CICC, Huachuang and Xingye all expect that 14 stocks in CSI 300 will be adjusted.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06099\">China Merchants Securities</a>Kaiyuan Securities believes that the number of stocks adjusted is 18.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867555a67cf53772e0f515b52f778684\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Specifically, most of the targets that CICC, Xingye and Huachuang are expected to transfer are the same, and the only difference is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600702\">Shede Liquor Industry</a>CICC and Huachuang both expect it to be transferred, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Then the subject matter to be included is considered to be<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">Meijin Energy</a>。</p><p>Compared with the first three, Kaiyuan Securities and China Merchants have four more targets, and both are expected to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601607\">Shanghai Pharmaceuticals</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688180\">Junshi Biotech</a>Will also be included in this adjustment.</p><p>In terms of elimination, there is little difference in the results predicted by each brokerage house. The 14 targets expected to be eliminated by CICC, Xingye, Huachuang and Kaiyuan are completely the same, while China Merchants is expected to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601825\">Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank</a>Will not be included in this elimination sequence, should be<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000792\">Salt Lake Shares</a>。</p><p>In addition, the other four targets that open source and investment are expected to be eliminated are also exactly the same.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d03674819199d407a860dea221a6c5\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Combined with the industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>It said that power equipment, new energy, food and beverage and other industries were included in the top, while medicine, banking and other industries were excluded more.</p><p>In terms of CSI 500, it is expected that 50 stocks of Xingye, China Merchants, Huachuang, Kaiyuan and CICC will be transferred in or out. In the industry, the number of constituent stocks in electronics, basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy industries has increased, while the number of constituent stocks in transportation, steel, real estate and other industries has declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65a2944d06e15be6d1ae88d628613dcd\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"901\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674123\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640e98458f00668ccdcb478768943e35","relate_stocks":{"000016.SH":"上证50"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674123","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2280852058","content_text":"一般来说,中证系列、上证系列指数将在6月及12月的中旬定期调整其样本股,调整方案会提前两周进行公告。历史经验来看,预测窗口期通常有一个月时间,如今面临成分股调整窗口到来,各大券商也均对个股作出预判。从指数来看,上证50、上证180、上证380、沪深300、中证500等指数均将在本轮调整范围。其中沪深300指数和中证500指数存续跟踪产品数量多,规模大,作为市场的明星指数,二者成分股的每次调整均会引起投资者的关注。提前预判或可带来超额收益中金公司表示,通过对调整名单的提前预测,套利投资者可通过提前预测成分股调整名单,捕捉指数纳入效应带来的超额收益;陆股通投资者则可通过对成分股调整的预判,提前把握可投范围的变化。华创证券指出,指数成分股调整事件也被称为指数效应,会产生价格效应和成交量效应。随着样本股的调入调出,跟踪该指数的基金和投资者会对持仓做出相应的调整,从而可能会对调入调出的股票价格和成交量产生重要影响。一般来说,新调入和调出股票的价格和成交量会在调整名单公布后出现变动,对于调入的新成分股,会出现股价上涨和交易量上升的情况;对于调出的股票,则表现为股价下跌与交易量减少。此外,据招商证券统计,在公告日后的一段时间内,纳入股票仍能够获得显著的超额收益,纳入标的在调整公告日后的10日之内存在明显的超额收益,而在之后的十多个交易日后超额收益又会被逐渐弱化。相对的,样本股从指数成分股中剔除后,其股票价格在调整公告日之后的15日内呈现出了显著减弱的特征。涉及哪些公司?由于指数样本股调整的标准是确定的,所以各家券商标的预测大致相似,只有个别公司及数量稍有区别。从数量上看,中金、华创、兴业均预计沪深300有14只个股调整,招商证券、开源证券认为被调整的个股数量有18只。具体来看,中金、兴业、华创预计将调入的绝大部分标的均相同,唯一区别的一只个股是舍得酒业,中金、华创均预计其将被调入,而兴业证券则认为被纳入的标的为美锦能源。与前三者相比,开源证券和招商多出四只标的,二者均预计上海医药和君实生物也将被纳入此次调整之中。剔除方面,各家券商彼此之家预测的结果差异不大,中金、兴业、华创、开源预计被剔除的14只标的完全一致,而招商则预计沪农商行不会被纳入此次剔除序列当中,应当是盐湖股份。除此之外,开源与招商预计被剔除的另外4只标的也完全一致。结合行业来看,中金公司表示,电力设备新能源、食品饮料等行业被纳入居前,而医药、银行等行业被剔除数较多。中证500方面,兴业、招商、华创、开源、中金均预计将有50只个股将被调入或调出,行业中,电子、基础化工、电力设备新能源等行业成分股数量提升,交运、钢铁、房地产等行业成分股数量下滑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000016.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986050054,"gmtCreate":1666860015879,"gmtModify":1676537818399,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] ","listText":"$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] ","text":"$AAPL 20221028 145.0 PUT${{7a6048ec077f469bbe213aea5d944040}}[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986050054","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910191935,"gmtCreate":1663570249527,"gmtModify":1676537292760,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] //<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4097199389075880\">@新西兰可可</a>: [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] //<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4097199389075880\">@新西兰可可</a>: [Happy] [Happy] [Happy] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] //@新西兰可可: [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910191935","repostId":"9910953505","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9910953505,"gmtCreate":1663549805907,"gmtModify":1676537287694,"author":{"id":"3584220801546703","authorId":"3584220801546703","name":"TulipCrane","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3960a1e16eebe0eb8a028b32fb0fa97a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584220801546703","authorIdStr":"3584220801546703"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HST.SI\">$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$</a> no tomorrow liao, will it drop till liquidation and distribte funds to everyone? no sense at all","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HST.SI\">$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$</a> no tomorrow liao, will it drop till liquidation and distribte funds to everyone? no sense at all","text":"$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ no tomorrow liao, will it drop till liquidation and distribte funds to everyone? no sense at all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910953505","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995413598,"gmtCreate":1661495505416,"gmtModify":1676536530617,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK7508\">$Pharmaceutical Companies(BK7508)$</a>[Call] [Call] [Call] [Call] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK7508\">$Pharmaceutical Companies(BK7508)$</a>[Call] [Call] [Call] [Call] ","text":"$Pharmaceutical Companies(BK7508)$[Call] [Call] [Call] [Call]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995413598","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000005668,"gmtCreate":1638351212082,"gmtModify":1676533489833,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Miser] ","listText":"[Miser] ","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000005668","repostId":"2188084554","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2188084554","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638350124,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2188084554?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-01 17:15","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Loose supply, LNG prices fluctuate downward","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188084554","media":"同花顺财经期货","summary":"北方气温相对平缓,除东北部分地区强降雪气温偏冷外,其他北方大部地区气温暂无明显下降。目前LNG市场供应较为宽松,价格有所下滑。据卓创资讯统计,截至11月30日,全国LNG市场实际成交均价 ...","content":"<p>The temperature in the north is relatively gentle. Except for the heavy snowfall in some parts of the northeast, the temperature in most parts of the north has not dropped significantly for the time being. At present, the supply of LNG market is relatively loose, and the price has declined. According to<img src=\"http://comment.10jqka.com.cn/sourcepic/12/17extag0tNfK0bYtsay.png\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"18\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to statistics, as of November 30th, the actual average transaction price of the national LNG market was 7,280.67 yuan/ton, down 931.57 yuan/ton, or 11.34%, compared with the price on November 1st. In late November, it was dominated by shock downward.</p><p>In terms of supply, the operating load of domestic LNG plants was 48.95% on November 30th, a slight increase of 0.16 percentage points compared with the operating load of 48.79% on November 1st. The reserves in Shandong and other places are shipped to the outside world, which increases the supply of LNG in the market. In addition, from the perspective of pipeline gas sources, from November 26th, Hutubi gas storage has supplied gas to the West-East Gas Pipeline Network, with an average daily maximum gas production of 30 million cubic meters, which greatly ensures the supply of natural gas in winter.</p><p>In terms of demand, the recent performance is relatively weak. From the point of view of shipment from the receiving station, compared with the shipment on November 1st, the shipment on November 30th dropped significantly, with North China dropping by 40%, East China dropping by 27% and South China dropping by 8%. LNG demand was obviously sluggish. On the one hand, the temperature in the north is relatively flat, and the demand for urban fuel replenishment has not increased for the time being; On the other hand, industrial users in some areas have reduced production and stopped production under the adjustment of peak-shifting production, and the demand for LNG industry has declined; Furthermore, some industrial users considered the high price of LNG and switched to other alternative energy sources in order to avoid the peak period of gas consumption in winter. All these have had a negative impact on the current demand of LNG market.</p><p>In the future, cold air may bring cooling expectations, but it is expected that the cooling range in most northern regions will be limited in December, LNG will play a small peak shaving role, and the price this winter lacks the support of seasonal demand; The overall high LNG price this winter makes the enthusiasm of industrial users and gas-headed vehicles to use gas insufficient; In addition, at present, the reserves of large-scale gas storage and small-scale gas storage peak shaving facilities in China are relatively sufficient, and the growth of LNG peak shaving demand is limited. In addition, from the perspective of the international market, due to the expectation that the variant virus will drag down the global economic prospects, international crude oil has plummeted, and natural gas prices are difficult to survive alone. On the whole, the situation of oversupply may continue in the short term. Before the next round of strong cooling, it is expected that the overall LNG price may not rise significantly.</p><p><b>follow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Flush</a>Finance (ths518), Get More Opportunities</b></p>","source":"ths_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Loose supply, LNG prices fluctuate downward</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLoose supply, LNG prices fluctuate downward\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">同花顺财经期货</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-01 17:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The temperature in the north is relatively gentle. Except for the heavy snowfall in some parts of the northeast, the temperature in most parts of the north has not dropped significantly for the time being. At present, the supply of LNG market is relatively loose, and the price has declined. According to<img src=\"http://comment.10jqka.com.cn/sourcepic/12/17extag0tNfK0bYtsay.png\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"18\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to statistics, as of November 30th, the actual average transaction price of the national LNG market was 7,280.67 yuan/ton, down 931.57 yuan/ton, or 11.34%, compared with the price on November 1st. In late November, it was dominated by shock downward.</p><p>In terms of supply, the operating load of domestic LNG plants was 48.95% on November 30th, a slight increase of 0.16 percentage points compared with the operating load of 48.79% on November 1st. The reserves in Shandong and other places are shipped to the outside world, which increases the supply of LNG in the market. In addition, from the perspective of pipeline gas sources, from November 26th, Hutubi gas storage has supplied gas to the West-East Gas Pipeline Network, with an average daily maximum gas production of 30 million cubic meters, which greatly ensures the supply of natural gas in winter.</p><p>In terms of demand, the recent performance is relatively weak. From the point of view of shipment from the receiving station, compared with the shipment on November 1st, the shipment on November 30th dropped significantly, with North China dropping by 40%, East China dropping by 27% and South China dropping by 8%. LNG demand was obviously sluggish. On the one hand, the temperature in the north is relatively flat, and the demand for urban fuel replenishment has not increased for the time being; On the other hand, industrial users in some areas have reduced production and stopped production under the adjustment of peak-shifting production, and the demand for LNG industry has declined; Furthermore, some industrial users considered the high price of LNG and switched to other alternative energy sources in order to avoid the peak period of gas consumption in winter. All these have had a negative impact on the current demand of LNG market.</p><p>In the future, cold air may bring cooling expectations, but it is expected that the cooling range in most northern regions will be limited in December, LNG will play a small peak shaving role, and the price this winter lacks the support of seasonal demand; The overall high LNG price this winter makes the enthusiasm of industrial users and gas-headed vehicles to use gas insufficient; In addition, at present, the reserves of large-scale gas storage and small-scale gas storage peak shaving facilities in China are relatively sufficient, and the growth of LNG peak shaving demand is limited. In addition, from the perspective of the international market, due to the expectation that the variant virus will drag down the global economic prospects, international crude oil has plummeted, and natural gas prices are difficult to survive alone. On the whole, the situation of oversupply may continue in the short term. Before the next round of strong cooling, it is expected that the overall LNG price may not rise significantly.</p><p><b>follow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Flush</a>Finance (ths518), Get More Opportunities</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20211201/c634724079.shtml\">同花顺财经期货</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","DGAZ":"三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","UNG":"美国天然气基金"},"source_url":"http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20211201/c634724079.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188084554","content_text":"北方气温相对平缓,除东北部分地区强降雪气温偏冷外,其他北方大部地区气温暂无明显下降。目前LNG市场供应较为宽松,价格有所下滑。据统计,截至11月30日,全国LNG市场实际成交均价为7280.67元/吨,对比11月1日的价格下跌931.57元/吨,跌幅11.34%,11月下旬以震荡下行为主。供应上来看,11月30日国内LNG工厂开工负荷为48.95%,对比11月1日48.79%的开工负荷微幅上涨0.16个百分点。山东等地储备库对外出货,增加了市场LNG的供应。另外,从管道气气源来看,11月26日开始,呼图壁储气库向西气东输管网供气,日均最大采气量可达3000万立方米,大大保障了冬季天然气的供应。需求上来看,近期表现较为疲软。从接收站出货上来看,对比11月1日出货量,11月30日出货明显下滑,其中华北地区下滑40%,华东地区下滑27%,华南地区下滑8%,LNG需求明显不振。一方面,北方气温相对平缓,城燃补库需求暂无增加;另一方面,部分地区的工业用户在错峰生产的调整下,存在减产停产的情况,LNG工业需求有所下降;再者,部分工业用户考虑LNG价格偏高,以及为避开冬季用气的高峰期,切换为其他替代能源。这些都对于目前LNG市场的需求产生了负面影响。未来冷空气或将带来降温预期,但预计12月份大部分北方地区降温幅度有限,LNG发挥的调峰作用较小,今冬价格欠缺季节性需求的支撑;今冬整体水平偏高的LNG价格,使得工业用户和气头车辆的用气积极性不足;加之目前国内大型储气库以及小型储气调峰设施的储备较为充足,LNG的调峰需求增长有限。另外,从国际市场来看,受到变种病毒对于全球经济前景拖累的预期,国际原油大跌,天然气价格也难以独善其身。综合来看,短期内供大于求的局面或将持续,在下一轮强降温之前,预计整体LNG价格或将难有明显上涨。关注同花顺财经(ths518),获取更多机会","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UGAZ":0.9,"UNG":0.9,"DGAZ":0.9,"NGmain":0.9,"QGmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980338244,"gmtCreate":1665646678088,"gmtModify":1676537642171,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] ","listText":"[Happy] [Happy] [Happy] ","text":"[Happy] [Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980338244","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042034768,"gmtCreate":1656400439054,"gmtModify":1676535821786,"author":{"id":"4097228630086560","authorId":"4097228630086560","name":"新加坡小新大漠孤烟直长河落日圆萧关逢候骑都护在燕然举头望明月低头思故乡渭城朝雨","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/ba19d4f9a7de9d48deb4c676a968482a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097228630086560","authorIdStr":"4097228630086560"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Happy][Happy][Happy]","listText":"[Happy][Happy][Happy]","text":"[Happy][Happy][Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042034768","repostId":"9046811375","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9046811375,"gmtCreate":1656326950298,"gmtModify":1676535806512,"author":{"id":"3575549636304964","authorId":"3575549636304964","name":"Mythz","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3687cf317c2983638aa7f320098b14b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575549636304964","authorIdStr":"3575549636304964"},"themes":[],"title":"Inflation, recession, stagflation","htmlText":"What is inflation?It is the rising of prices of the services / products over the year. For example, you can buy a chicken burger for 2 dollars in 2020, now it costs 4 dollars.What is recession?In general terms, it means that the economy is not doing well and the GDP declines.What is stagflation?Stagflation means that the economy has been stagnant, high inflation and low employment rate.Where are we right now?Yes, we are currently in the red bear market right now. The Nasdaq has fallen over 30% since Jan. Inflation and recession are common words we will be hearing when we are in a bear market. I feel that we are in a stagflation phase right now. In the latest Fed updates, there is an slight increase in consumer spending, however it is still very far from the pre-covid era. The unemployment","listText":"What is inflation?It is the rising of prices of the services / products over the year. For example, you can buy a chicken burger for 2 dollars in 2020, now it costs 4 dollars.What is recession?In general terms, it means that the economy is not doing well and the GDP declines.What is stagflation?Stagflation means that the economy has been stagnant, high inflation and low employment rate.Where are we right now?Yes, we are currently in the red bear market right now. The Nasdaq has fallen over 30% since Jan. Inflation and recession are common words we will be hearing when we are in a bear market. I feel that we are in a stagflation phase right now. In the latest Fed updates, there is an slight increase in consumer spending, however it is still very far from the pre-covid era. The unemployment","text":"What is inflation?It is the rising of prices of the services / products over the year. For example, you can buy a chicken burger for 2 dollars in 2020, now it costs 4 dollars.What is recession?In general terms, it means that the economy is not doing well and the GDP declines.What is stagflation?Stagflation means that the economy has been stagnant, high inflation and low employment rate.Where are we right now?Yes, we are currently in the red bear market right now. The Nasdaq has fallen over 30% since Jan. Inflation and recession are common words we will be hearing when we are in a bear market. I feel that we are in a stagflation phase right now. In the latest Fed updates, there is an slight increase in consumer spending, however it is still very far from the pre-covid era. The unemployment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046811375","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}