ToughCoyote
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My view of FEDs rate future

The Fed’s terminal interest rate futures are higher than a week ago. Not only that, the speed of interest rate cut expectations has also been delayed by almost three months compared to the previous week. It fell back to 4.5%, but this expectation has been delayed, and it will not be seen until March 2024. I remember that I shared my views on inflation in the United States and other mature economies last year. For all mature economies whose inflation once exceeded 5%, it is a very difficult and unbearable path for inflation to return to 2%. This process includes rising unemployment, falling wages, weak or even losses in corporate profits, and a decline in the new order index. But so far, I don't think the situation is as expected by the Fed or the market. Although the data I have seen for the time being is somewhat mixed, I haven't seen a signal that the Fed needs to cut interest rates first. Imagination is much longer, and don’t forget that the Fed is always half a beat or even a beat behind the economic data. Maybe the data will really weaken by then, but the Fed officials choose not to believe it, and continue to observe. The market does not believe it. It takes time to ferment the decision-making, and as a result, more potential risks that were not necessary to bear will be exposed one by one. At that time, I think the current market rebound may also come to an end, especially if the market finds out that it is mispriced, then it may be even more powerful if it has risen so high before. $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$  $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$  @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger 
My view of FEDs rate future

Can ChatGPT replace investment decisions?

Backgrounds ChatGPT is a chatbot software launched by OpenAI in November 2022. ChatGPT can continuously interact with humans in most fields, and when implemented, it became the fastest-growing consumer application in history. Just two months after ChatGPT was launched, its monthly active users exceeded 100 million at the end of January 2023, making it the consumer app with the fastest user growth rate in history. According to Sensor Tower data, it took 9 months for TikTok to reach 100 million users, while it took 2 and a half years for Instagram. In the opinion of many people, ChatGPT is more like a god: it can be a programmer and directly help you write programs; it can also help you with business planning and are clearly organized; it can even write articles and papers with strict logic... So is ChatGPT really that amazing? And can it replace investment decisions? For a brief summary of its advantages and disadvantages, please refer to ↓ Strength 1. ChatGPT optimizes the accuracy of matching between questions and answers, and the user experience is far better than traditional search engines 2. ChatGPT has strong command learning ability. The task instructions it can understand include not only answering questions, but also information retrieval, article writing, problem solving, programming, composing, etc. 3. ChatGPT can accurately capture the meaning of contextually determined pronouns and accurately identify intentions in multiple rounds of conversation Disadvantages 1. Due to model training methods, it is difficult to update data in real time 2. The cost of a single search is too high. It is estimated that the cost of generating a piece of information is around 1.3 cents, which is 3 to 4 times that of traditional search engines 3. The content generated by the statistical model is real and mixed, making it difficult for users to discern 4. Currently, ChatGPT can only do the most basic popular science research, and content that is highly subjective is still difficult to replace. Every field has its own set of research logic. Currently, ChatGPT has not been able to master 5. In terms of emotional companionship, it is currently impossible to provide scenario-based, professional and empathetic services like real people What is the impact in the field of investment? Hou Yanjun, founder of Houshi Tiancheng Investment, said in a small group in the morning, “In the field of investment, artificial intelligence can only do auxiliary work in the future. Investing is far more complicated than artificial intelligence.” Hou Yanjun said that the essence of the problem still lies in physics. Everyone has heard about the three body questions. Mathematically, when the three rigid spheres collide, the trajectories are not solved in the exact sense of the word. The only thing the Three Bodies can't deal with when they attack Earth is that scientific and technological means are unable to detect human thought processes. Because the human brain has hundreds of billions of nerve cells, the mind is generated by the electrical signals of neurons. There are hundreds of billions of interlinked circuits that link each other, more than the number of stars in the universe combined. This is just one person. However, the stock market, futures, bonds, etc. are made up of hundreds of millions of people's brain circuits. Therefore, from a biological or physical point of view, investment cannot be solved by artificial intelligence. This is even more true from a philosophical point of view. Does one artificial intelligence generate an investment idea, or do all artificial intelligence generate an idea? So is there still a market? There won't be a market. Another founder of quantitative private equity in Shenzhen said that it can bring little help; after all, it can only write simple strategies. Things that are strategically detailed still have to rely on expertise and experience to revise them in a timely manner. A brokerage investor said, “When customers lose money and want comfort, ChatGPT's answer makes sense, but it's obviously not cool. After AI, all content based on data, history, and statistical rules will probably be realized, and another technological innovation that will change the world will begin. Many positions will be replaced, and it is unknown whether humans are owners or being crushed by AI; as investors, you need to be better at communicating and communicating with customers heart and soul, because technical value can be easily replaced, but there is no substitute for genuine communication and down-to-earth companionship.” Summary 1. ChatGPT cannot completely replace traditional search engines in the short to medium term, and it is also difficult to change the current competitive pattern of the global search engine market. However, it is expected to accelerate the search engine evolution process and form a new search engine pattern dominated by traditional search engines and complemented by ChatGPT models in the medium term, which will lead to a significant increase in AI investment by traditional search engine giants such as Google. 2. The pangasius effect generated by ChatGPT is expected to drive the overall acceleration of the global AI industrialization process and the full advent of the AI-generated content era. 3. The success of ChatGPT will not bring disruptive newcomers to the search industry, but it will push search giants such as Google to speed up the iteration of big language models to support the new pattern of traditional search engines. 4. AI can do auxiliary work in the field of investment, but it cannot replace the work of investors and investors. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$  @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_chat 
Can ChatGPT replace investment decisions?

My review of Powell’s interview

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed by the host at the Economic Club of Washington last night and gave a speech. The content of the answer is that the mixed emotions of hawks and doves caused US stocks to fluctuate up and down for a while, and finally all closed up due to the strength of semiconductor technology stocks. The more dovish content is that Powell used the word disinflation again. He emphasized that the process of downward inflation in the United States has begun, especially the inflation on the commodity side, which accounts for about a quarter of the US GDP. But he thinks there is still a long way to go, because we are in the very early stages of falling inflation. Powell predicts that this year will be a year in which inflation will drop sharply, but not only this year, it must also go down to the 2% target next year. And this process cannot be smooth sailing, and there may be ups and downs in the middle, so Powell believes that it is necessary to continue to raise interest rates and maintain high interest rates for a period of time. Regarding non-agricultural employment, which was significantly higher than expected, Powell said that he did not expect it to be stronger than he imagined! (Even the chairman of the Federal Reserve can’t think of it. Can anyone guess it) 😂 He thinks the non-agricultural data shows that the Fed will feel that it will take a long time to fight against inflation, because the labor market is really too strong! He said that we will react to the numbers and if we continue to see strong jobs reports, the Fed will take more action and raise interest rates more than the market is currently expecting! This is more hawkish content, that is, the Fed may indeed change its original path of interest rate hikes and peak expectations because of the hot job market. $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$  @TigerStars @Tiger_chat @Daily_Discussion 
My review of Powell’s interview
avatarToughCoyote
02-08 23:11
In terms of performance, Meituan’s revenue in the third quarter of 2022 will be 62.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%; the net profit in the third quarter will be 1.22 billion yuan. Quarterly revenue from the core local commerce segment rose to 46.3 billion yuan, up 24.6% year-on-year. Operating profit increased from 4.2 billion yuan in the same period in 2021 to 9.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.6%. the Although the overall performance of Q4 is under pressure, after the "Yang Kang" in January, especially during the Spring Festival, consumption has recovered significantly. We expect Meituan to benefit significantly from the rebound in consumption in 23 years. the It is reported that Douyin will launch a national food delivery service on March 1. In this regard, Douyin insiders revealed that there is no plan to "launch the national food delivery service on March 1". Conducted in some pilot cities. the The takeaway business and the group-buying delivery are both Douyin’s local life services. The “group-buying delivery” project is still being piloted in Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, and merchants in these three cities have recently opened up self-service settlement. In the future, depending on the pilot situation, consideration will be given to gradually expanding the pilot cities. There is currently no specific timetable. the From the perspective of business layout, Douyin is not familiar with the food delivery industry and has the idea of ​​asking for directions, but it is more likely that Douyin just wants to enter the same city social circle through intra-city content. Simply put, Douyin's appeal is to enter the same city as Meituan Ele.me, but the core of Douyin is still short video content and social aspects. the Meituan announced the launch of the first wave of social recruitment in 2023. This recruitment will provide job types including technology, business analysis, product, supply chain, operation, design, marketing, functional integration, finance, sales customer service and support, and open more than 2,200 specific jobs. Jobs in this category increased by more than 50% year-on-year in the first quarter of last year. Among them, technical positions such as software development engineers, test development engineers, and algorithm engineers account for the majority. $Meituan(03690)$  $HSI(HSI)$  @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger 
avatarToughCoyote
02-08 10:04

Keep HODLING BiG TECH; here’s why you should do it too

Recently, we have all heard the news about the price reduction of the iPhone 14 Pro series in China, and some media also pointed out that it may have an impact on Apple’s supply chain. But we might as well look at this matter from another angle: whether consumption power is gradually declining. China has already unblocked, and there should be retaliatory consumption. However, even the iPhone, which has relatively strong demand, has begun to cut prices, which not only reflects the fatigue of demand, but also reflects that brand merchants are not optimistic about the recovery of consumption power. In addition, potential risks cannot be ignored. Almost all consumer electronics industries predict that performance in the second half of the year will recover naturally with seasonal effects. Many analysts assume that profits in Q3 and Q4 will return to past peak levels when predicting the company's annual profits. However, if China is like other countries, consumption after unblocking is mainly invested in the service industry, catering industry, and tourism industry, then it may be too optimistic to expect consumption power or performance to recover quickly, or the time to clear warehouses to end earlier , and even this year's profit forecast has more room for downward revision. I don't want to say negative things, but in the process of the stock market rebound, we should avoid being affected by all kinds of good news, and buying an insurance for ourselves is not entirely a bad thing.... This is why I am holding on to $Apple(AAPL)$  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$  @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger @Tiger_chat 
Keep HODLING BiG TECH; here’s why you should do it too
avatarToughCoyote
02-07 23:59

Has the interest rates peaked yet ?

Since 2023, the stock market has maintained a strong performance.  Does this mean that the risk of economic recession is reduced?  Or is it because the Federal Reserve continues to maintain its austerity policy (interest rate hike), even if inflation is slowing down? Now the interest rate level of banks has not reduced the economy to a point where it is enough to turn to neutral (or loose) policies, while the economic news in the United States is still stable, and the FED must continue to maintain high interest rates to force credit crunch to the limit. The dilemma faced by the directors is: when the inflation rate will return to 2-3%, and the proportion of interest expenditure in the fiscal deficit in total expenditure is increasing (with chart). In my opinion, the FED needs to carefully balance economic growth and inflationary demand, and adjust policies appropriately to avoid the adverse impact of excessive austerity or looseness on the economy. Personally, I think that the current loan interest rate can be said to be too high or too low, depending on your perspective. Since long-term interest rates cannot be higher than the inflation rate or the growth rate of economic GDP, otherwise it will affect the solvency of the U.S. government, high interest rates have always been questioned. However, if interest rates are too low, I don't know when the inflation rate will return to 2%. The current statement that "the interest rate increase cycle is over" has not yet become a definite fact. In this "dilemma", there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Don't forget: the interest rate hike cycle is not completely over. This cycle may end in: First of all, let's consider the impact of U.S. deficit spending on the economy. Even though the United States has been in a fiscal deficit for nearly 20 years, the possibility of bankruptcy is still very small. Therefore, I personally think the sharp drop in the US dollar and the reversal of confidence in deficit spending are the most unlikely situations to happen. Second, the credit crisis with deteriorating creditworthiness is worrying. The problems caused by the rapid rise in interest rates in 2022 emerged in 2023, causing banks to refuse to lend. Although the high-growth stocks ARKK, cryptocurrency, SPAC and meme stocks have collapsed last year, they have not yet evolved into a widespread credit crisis, but there is still a need to be vigilant in 2023. Therefore, this crisis is still moderately possible. Third, the company's earnings per share gradually emerged in the process of recession, leading to the further collapse of the stock market, which are the three most likely things to happen. I think the Federal Reserve needs a stronger reason to cut interest rates than inflation slowing down. The simplest reason is that the stock market keeps falling. In fact, the Federal Reserve, like investors in the market, hopes to cut interest rates as soon as possible, because this can reduce the interest expenditure on treasury bonds and maintain the solvency of the Treasury Department. Even if stocks have risen in the market in recent years, I still don't plan to invest a large amount of new funds in the stock market today, because as long as the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the stock market will not see meaningful growth. However, if the stock market does not fall, the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates! This cycle continues to plague us investors. $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$  $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$  @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars 
Has the interest rates peaked yet ?
avatarToughCoyote
02-07 13:46

How to hedge in HSI pullback as retail trader ?

I think the inverse ETF may not be able to hedge the risk of holding shares when the Hang Seng Index $HSI(HSI)$ is currently falling.  And its investment cost is relatively high,... it needs to copy the index through futures, there is the problem of rollover cost, and its management fee is relatively high. Regardless of whether it is hedging or short-term trading, using an inverse ETF does not count. On the contrary, it will be a better choice to do index options.  Because the cost is very low, the fee for a Hang Seng Index option is only HK$0.54 for the SFC levy and HK$10 for the Exchange. More cost-effective than ETFs. Moreover, it is good to use index options to do light, and it is good to do hedging. There are more choices and strategies than reverse ETFs.  For example, the current Hang Seng Index peaked and fell, but there will be support at 20,000 points. The 20,500-point put option on the Seng Seng Index can not only hedge risks by holding shares, but if the Hang Seng Index falls too much and falls sharply, the implied volatility of this put option will increase. In addition to its own increase in disguise, Increases with increased implied volatility are also included. So the benefits are much better than inverse ETFs. In terms of risk, the maximum loss is only the amount of the purchased option, and the risk is controllable. Although inverse ETFs can also control risks, such as setting stop loss levels, etc.  But after calculating the buried cost, you may lose more, and it is quite difficult to go back to your purchase price or even make money. On the contrary, we can choose the next month for the Hang Seng Index option, and it is calculated one by one.  Every point up or down is 50 Hong Kong dollars, I think it would be more appropriate and cost-effective to do hedging or shorting. @Tiger_chat @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars 
How to hedge in HSI pullback as retail trader ?
avatarToughCoyote
02-07 01:02

Baidu is my go trade in realm of ChatGPT..here’s why

Baidu's $Baidu(BIDU)$ stock price soared by more than 16% on the past two days, and investors in the secondary market said they were both surprised and panicked. I don't know whether to make a profit for those who have got on the bus ahead of schedule, and those who haven't got on the bus don't know whether to get on the bus in time. What I'm afraid of is a high-level quilt cover. After all, the current stock price has doubled from the October 2022 low. The impact of the news is that on January 30, multi-channel information showed that Baidu was developing an AI dialogue service similar to Chat GPT. Reuters reported that Baidu plans to launch a standalone application of the product in March, and then gradually merge it into search engines. Obviously, Chat GPT, as a catalyst, has ushered in a dense crowd of funds in the short term. The question that everyone is most concerned about is whether the stock price rebound will continue. Is it a flash in the pan or a valuation revaluation? Investment has never been a simple linear deduction. First of all, without the impact of Chat GPT, is the Baidu value not worth an equivalent level of valuation repair? You should know that since the bottom of October-November last year, with the release of third-quarter results, cost reduction and efficiency have become the theme of companies, as well as the gradual relaxation of masks, the support of national economic signals and the slowdown in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, science and network stocks have more than doubled, such as Alibaba and Beijing. Donghe Kuaishou, while Pinduoduo benefited from its eye-catching performance in the third quarter, more than tripled. In this way, under the general rise, Baidu has not been able to keep up with the rebound. You know, Baidu's non-GAAP net profit margin is also 23.4%, which is 24.3% for Pinduoduo and 16.3% for Alibaba. After careful investigation of the business, several companies are not bad. Although the growth rate is not as high as Pinduoduo, the valuation of Pinduoduoduo is also very high, with a market sales rate of 7.4 times, and Alibaba and Baidu are more than 2 times. Therefore, even without the hype of AIGC-related concepts, Baidu is still worth a popular repair. Secondly, what is Baidu's AI technology? Chat GPT detonates the AIGC application, how will Baidu occupy the position? The investment is in the future of an enterprise's continuous operation. Artificial intelligence must be the future trend of the technology industry, just as trams must be the future trend of the automotive industry. Baidu is one of the few artificial intelligence companies in the world to carry out full stack layout. The company has invested high research and development regardless of costs for many years. As of the second quarter of 22, core R&D expenses have accounted for more than 20% of Baidu's core revenue for seven consecutive quarters. According to Li Yanhong's speech at the Baidu Create AI Developer Conference, the AI part can be divided into four layers: chip layer, framework layer, model layer and application layer. From high-end chip Kunlun to the paddle deep learning framework, to the literary pre-training model, there are key self-developed technologies at each level, and there is a lot of feedback between each layer. Through continuous feedback, end-to-end optimization is achieved. The lower the technical architecture, the more common it is, and the more it is, the more specialized it will be. More universal means constantly lowering the threshold for the use of technology in the industry. More specialized is in-depth. Regarding the application scenarios of AIGC, Baidu has also done a lot, as shown in the figure below, which is sorted out for Soochow Securities: Combined with Baidu's news about the Chinese version of Chat GPT, this is a logical thing for Baidu. In the past of the epidemic, the economic recovery is imminent. Whether it is the support of national policies or the high demand of consumers, with Chat GPT as the introduction, Baidu ushered in a start to boost confidence and hope. The rise in stock prices in the past few days shows that the market believes that China ChatGPT will bring great value to Baidu. It is not only a catalyst, but also needs to be closely followed by us and not to be thrown out of the new era. Whether Baidu will continue to rise in the future depends on the fourth-quarter financial report in the short term. Whether the results of reducing costs and increasing efficiency will continue; in the medium and long term, it depends on the development of AI business and the outlook of 23 years. Whether to buy or not depends on you. $ Baidu. US $Baidu Group-SW.HK Statement: This article is only for learning and communication, and does not constitute investment advice. $XIAOMI-W(01810)$  $TENCENT(00700)$  $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$  @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger @TigerStars  @Daily_Discussion 
Baidu is my go trade in realm of ChatGPT..here’s why
avatarToughCoyote
02-07 00:20

Judging from chatgpt, how to invest as you get old?

Recently, chatgpt has earned a lot of attention, have questions to answer, and can even improvise. Compared with the browser search currently used, this type of robot can directly put the final result in front of us. If you think it's nothing, you can consider a time cost. For example, using a browser, open and search for something casually. 90% of it is useless content, and 9% of 10% of useful content may be repetitive. From searching to getting the final answer, the time cost must be very high. Chatgpt can do a lot of filtering, program, create, and do a lot of questions to replace people's thinking. Next, we can consider a question of how irreplaceable your work is. The irreplaceability here is not necessarily human beings, and artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence and automation are the two biggest threats to workers at present. For example, intelligent driving has always been very controversial. In fact, compared with unmanned driving, which is very concerned, in practical applications, all kinds of express delivery vehicles and food delivery vehicles are already running continuously. Although they don't run fast enough, once it can run normally, the speed is only a matter of time. In terms of self-driving, such as radish running and taxi drivers, they have been operating at a very low price. The taxi price is very cheap. There is a driver sitting in the front row, and the speed is not fast enough. Automatic driving. Express delivery, takeaway and online car-hailing. At present, there are three industries with very high labor density, but these three industries are currently carrying out in-depth artificial intelligence research and development. Replacing manpower is the general trend. After all, once successful, labor costs can be greatly reduced. Of course, it is unrealistic to replace labor in the short term, but have you ever considered whether your job is still possible in the post-90s, post-00s and 2055? Will it have been replaced? I'm not creating anxiety, but you should plan your life well. You don't have to look at 30 years away, but it is very valuable to choose a good industry. At least you won't lag behind others. Automatic + intelligence is the two major tools that replace labor. For example, now the robot that delivers things in the hotel. Sometimes I don't want to see people when they stay in the hotel, right? Robots just alleviate this embarrassment, and if the hotel is small, it's okay. If it's very big, the advantage of robots delivering things will come out. For example, cleaning up, if the space is small, one person may have cleaned it up, but if the area is very large, the advantages of using equipment cleaning will come out. Before putting it, several people may be needed, but now you only need one person and one device. Maybe this equipment can work by yourself in a few years. If your position is constantly being replaced by technology, you must leave a good way for yourself. Although it is difficult to predict the future industry trend at present, many industries are obviously being banned. You either have capital or technology. Of course, you can also have physical strength, but physical strength will gradually fade with age. Try to find your irreplaceability. $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$  @MillionaireTiger @Tiger_chat @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion 
Judging from chatgpt, how to invest as you get old?
avatarToughCoyote
02-06 19:11
I think the price cut of $Apple(AAPL)$ Apple products is to seize more market share. At present, the competition in China's mobile phone market is fierce, and different brands of mobile phones are also selling points with affordable prices and multi-functions as their selling points, and compete with Apple. In the fourth quarter of last year, Apple's iPhone shipped 73.2 million units in the global market, a year-on-year decrease of 11%; in the Chinese market, Apple's iPhone shipments were 16.4 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 24%. And affected by factors such as supply chain assembly during the epidemic, revenue from the iPhone business in the fourth quarter of last year fell.    Apple's latest financial report showed that the iPhone business revenue in the fourth quarter of last year was US$65.775 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Apple's Greater China revenue was $23.905 billion, down 7% year-on-year.  However, Apple is expected to restore the growth momentum of iPhone performance in the future, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of the high-end model iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max version, thereby driving the increase in the average price of the product. In addition, the production and operation of Foxconn Zhengzhou Park has gradually returned to normal in December last year. Foxconn Zhengzhou Science and Technology Park recently announced that after the Spring Festival, Foxconn's employees' rework rate has approached 100%, with about 200,000 people. This is the first time to resume production after the epidemic, and it is expected that Apple's main supply chain is stable, thereby launching more products.  In the first quarter, Apple has a certain order correction for headphones, watches and Mac product lines; the mobile phone product line has been adjusted in the fourth quarter of last year, and the iPhone 14 Pro product line has been affected by a certain supply, so there is no latest adjustment. Based on the current macro environment at home and abroad, Apple's orders are still significantly better than other consumer electronics customer supply chains. In the medium and long term, Apple's AirPods, Apple Watch and other products have a low penetration rate, and the penetration rate is expected to continue to increase in the future, which will drive the continuous growth of product sales. This time, Apple's price reduction action may be to start its good brand and beer, so as to make customers love and loyalty to Apple products. Prepare for the price increase of new products in the future. So I think Apple's performance will be bright this year. $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$  $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$  @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger 

Is google a good company at fair price ?

Google Competitor  Search engine:  Google ${{780076c5c14047b596498b495eac4fbe}}Alphabet.US's main business still comes from search engines, accounting for about 57% of quarterly revenue. The company has been trying to diversify its product portfolio, but so far, most of its products are either basically unprofitable or can only be used as a substitute for search engines. Although Google still dominates Internet search, we can see that their monopoly is being hit by some competitors. Users seem to be moving towards search engines that protect privacy, including DuckDuckGo and Brave. These users happen to be early adopters who are proficient in network technology, which means that users are becoming more and more distrustful of Google. I think from the perspective of the current market, these alternative search engines are not enough to overthrow Google's dominance at present, and may be a good reason for them to tell the market that they are not monopolies. Media:  YouTube is Google's creator media platform. YouTube allows anyone to upload videos to the platform and share revenue with approved creators. I think this is also a good thing, but unlike traditional software, it is a product with a very low profit margin. The main cost of this business is the video storage cost of the company hosting millions of videos. With the improvement of video quality and more storage space, the company needs to copy the video in multiple storage locations so that the audience can enjoy fast streaming media. That said, the company earns $7 billion from YouTube Ads every quarter, accounting for about 10% of the total quarterly revenue. Nevertheless, in recent years, more and more competitors compete with YouTube in this field. I can only say that YouTube is by no means a solid business. Although it does have potential, the flow of people will be more scattered when users have more choices. Cloud Computing Services:  Google Cloud currently accounts for about 10% of the total quarterly revenue. I think this part may continue to grow in the future, because cloud services seem to have gradually become one of Google's key areas. For a company that has reached a bottleneck or is already quite mature in other businesses, this development direction is actually correct. Key software that used to appear in physical form, such as movies, offices, games, etc., can now be accessed from the cloud. The technology is developing in the direction of computing on the cloud rather than home/office devices. We can see that when we work from home, it becomes easier and easier to do software computing remotely. Finally, most offices are already in the cloud, and it is accelerating its adoption after the 2020 pandemic. Google is one of the three major suppliers besides $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon and Microsoft.$Microsoft(MSFT)$  Google's main cloud services include: Computing engine: a virtual computer service that provides users with access to Google infrastructure. People can "rent" this virtual machine and develop various software remotely. Application engine: A platform as a service allows developers to build and run applications on Google's infrastructure. Similar to the computing engine, but with less configuration, it focuses on developing and expanding software. Cloud SQL: a relational database service that provides users with access to Google infrastructure. Cloud data storage: a NoSQL database service that provides users with access to Google infrastructure. BigQuery: An analysis database, almost the same as Snowflake and Databricks. Although Google Cloud is expected to continue to attract fierce competition from other large providers such as Microsoft's Azure and Amazon AWS, I think large cloud players will unite against start-ups such as Datadog and even Snowflake. Unless there are highly innovative technologies, large suppliers may dominate this field. I think Google's largest revenue at present comes from its search engines, which actually contains certain risks, because Google's search engine business seems to be saturated and faces the risk of losing market share. As for the media business, there may still room for growth, but it should not be too careless in the face of other inter-industry competition platforms. After all, if there are too many users, natural flow will be diverted, unless the platform has any freshness and creative content that can continue to retain the hearts of users. So I think there seems to be room for cloud computing services to grow from the perspective of Google's future growth engine. In addition, I think the development of artificial intelligence may also have the opportunity to push Google to another peak. In the past, there were actually many trends rising in the context of cloud computing, but most of them were difficult to stick to. These trends include the Internet of Things, blockchain, no/low code application processes, smart cities, big data, and online classrooms. Maybe all this has played a role in their respective fields, but some of them may be overestimated in terms of their market size and value-creation potential. At present, new trends and themes seem to revolve around artificial intelligence search, autonomous driving, dialogue interaction, virtual reality, etc. Many companies, including Google, have joined this train. In fact, Google was one of the first companies to enter the field of artificial intelligence communication. They developed Google Assistant, and other companies that joined the train included Microsoft's Cortana, Amazon's Alexa and Apple's Siri. Until the emergence of OpenAI and related products later, this caused a more obvious innovation boom. However, I see that large enterprises will benefit more than start-ups. The reason is that although OpenAI has made significant progress in the field of artificial intelligence, it seems that two factors are somewhat unfavorable to them. First, large companies like Google are likely to find ways to grab advantages from OpenAI. Second, more importantly, large enterprises like Google actually have a larger amount of proprietary data, which can be easily used to exceed the quality and quantity of services provided by OpenAI. I boldly expect that Google and other large enterprises may absorb any innovation created by OpenAI in the future and use their proprietary data to provide more excellent services than OpenAI, so Google will compete with other large enterprises rather than small innovators for market share. Small summary Finally, although I seem to have some views on Google in the article, I think Google's current more reasonable stock price should be in the range of $105-110. Of course, this is just my personal subjective assessment. I look forward to seeing management more stringent implementation projects in the future, as well as a productivity-oriented environment, clear key performance indicators, and more attention to implementation. If we look at the "picture above", we can find that Google compares the debt-to-capital ratio of comparable large enterprises such as Amazon, META, Apple and Microsoft, which means that the debt risk it faces is quite low. Although Google's current valuation is not reasonable for some conservative investors, I suggest that investors can pay attention to Google cloud computing in the future, because it may be a catalyst for Google's future growth. For friends who want to invest in Google, I suggest that you should consider buying slowly through time periods and funds in small batches. Don't buy too much or buy too hastily at one time, and don't put all the eggs in the same basket. Even if you are so confident, don't forget to invest risks while controlling the opportunity and encourage them together. $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$  $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$  @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars 
Is google a good company at fair price ?

Meta is it a good company at a good position now ?

Recent Financial Report:  The company recently released its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2022. The data showed that the operating revenue for the quarter was $32.165 billion, down 4% year-on-year. I think although it was lower than the 7% expected by analysts, it still did not reach the forecast of $31.65 billion. In addition, the quarterly dilution income per share (EPS) was $1.76, down 52% year-on-year, far lower than analysts' expectations of $2.22. Meta's stock price soared by about 20% after the performance was announced. I think that stocks that have fallen a lot now are prone to retaliatory rebound as long as their performance is announced as they are not as bad as market expectations. This is also the script needed for roll-selling. Let's take a look at Meta's performance. Their total revenue in the fourth quarter was $3,165.65 billion, down 4% year-on-year, less than analysts expected 7%, and their earnings per share were $1.76, down 52% year-on-year, down from the expected $2.22. In terms of its two major business sections, Meta's social media and meta-universe-related businesses have exceeded expectations, but the profits of its social media have been greatly reduced, and meta-universe-related businesses have shown more serious losses. In terms of social media business, its "application family" includes Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and other services, with a revenue of 31.4338 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter, down 4.1% year-on-year and a profit of 10.68 billion US dollars. Yuan, down 33% year-on-year. In terms of meta-universe-related business, the revenue of "Reality Laboratory" was $727 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%, with a loss of $4.28 billion, an increase of 29.5% year-on-year. On this topic, my point is that although Meta's performance exceeds the analyst's expectations, I think there are still some challenges that management needs to continue to work hard to solve. Especially in terms of the profits of social media business, higher profits need to be achieved by improving business strategies and cutting costs. At the same time, for the "realistic laboratory", I think it is more necessary to pay more attention to the development of mature technology and business models. Diversitification Attempts: Next, I think it is worth mentioning that the advertising business performed well in the fourth quarter, with operating revenue of $31.254 billion, down 4.2% year-on-year, but an increase of 14.7% over the revenue in the third quarter. Analysts expect to decrease by 5.5% year-on-year to $30.86 billion. In the fourth quarter, the advertising impressions increased by 23% year-on-year, expected to increase by 13.5%, while the average price of unit advertisements decreased by 22% year-on-year, expected to decrease by 17.2%. The average income per user (ARPU) in the fourth quarter was $10.86, the highest level in 2022, down 6.1% year-on-year, roughly equivalent to the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. I think this has somewhat become one of the reasons for the sharp rebound of Meta's stock price. I think Meta performs well in the advertising business, mainly because it has a large number of active users and provides a platform to attract advertisers. At the same time, Meta's average income per user is also very satisfactory, which not only reflects Meta's competitiveness in the advertising market, but also Meta's success in serving users. However, I personally observe that with the increasingly fierce competition, Meta still needs to constantly innovate to ensure Meta's position in the advertising market. User Growth and Distribution  On the other hand, in the important user index, we can learn from the financial report that the overall number of active users of Meta social media in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations. Among them, Facebook's daily active users (DAU) reached 2 billion for the first time, but the number of monthly active users (MAU) was slightly lower than expected. By the end of the fourth quarter: the average daily active users (DAP) of the application family was 2.96 billion, an increase of 5% year-on-year, and analysts expected 2.92 billion. The average monthly active users (MAP) of the application family is 37.44 billion, an increase of 4% year-on-year, and On the other hand, in the important user index, we can learn from the financial report that the overall number of active users of Meta social media in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations. Among them, Facebook's daily active users (DAU) reached 2 billion for the first time, but the number of monthly active users (MAU) was slightly lower than expected. By the end of the fourth quarter: the average daily active users (DAP) of the application family was 2.96 billion, an increase of 5% year-on-year, and analysts expected 2.92 billion. The average monthly active users (MAP) of the application family is 37.44 billion, an increase of 4% year-on-year, and analysts expect 37.71 billion. Facebook's DAU is 2 billion, an increase of 4% year-on-year, an increase of more than 70 million compared with the same period last year, and analysts expect 1.98 billion. Facebook's MAU is 2.96 billion, an increase of 2% year-on-year, and analysts expect 2.98 billion. I think the growth of the overall number of active users is the main catalyst for Meta's surge, because social media relies on active users to generate advertising revenue and support from other sources of revenue. So I personally believe that the market's reaction is because this cycle is exciting. Generally speaking, Meta's financial data shows that it still has many challenges, but it also shows its healthy user growth trend. In the future, the company needs to strengthen the steady growth of its profits while maintaining its strong user base. expect 37.71 billion. Facebook's DAU is 2 billion, an increase of 4% year-on-year, an increase of more than 70 million compared with the same period last year, and analysts expect 1.98 billion. Facebook's MAU is 2.96 billion, an increase of 2% year-on-year, and analysts expect 2.98 billion. I think the growth of the overall number of active users is the main catalyst for Meta's surge, because social media relies on active users to generate advertising revenue and support from other sources of revenue. So I personally believe that the market's reaction is because this cycle is exciting. Generally speaking, Meta's financial data shows that it still has many challenges, but it also shows its healthy user growth trend. In the future, the company needs to strengthen the steady growth of its profits while maintaining its strong user base. It's AI investing: In terms of outlook, Meta's latest performance guidelines predict that the revenue in the first quarter is expected to be between $26 billion and $28.5 billion, and the average is consistent with the analyst's expectation of $2.725 billion. Meta said that the impact of the exchange rate in the quarter will reduce the total revenue by 2 percentage points year-on-year. It is estimated that the annual cost in 2023 will be $89 billion to $95 billion, down $5 billion from the previous guidance range of 94 billion to $100 billion, lower than analysts' expectations of $95.66 billion; annual capital expenditure is 30 billion to 330 billion. Billion US dollars, down $4 billion from $34 billion to $37 billion from the previous guidance range, lower than analysts' expectations of $34.335 billion. Meta said that basically all capital expenditure will continue to support the application family. The expenditure reduction guidelines reflect the plan to reduce the expenditure related to the construction of the data center. The company turned to the new data center architecture, which has a higher cost utilization rate and can support both artificial intelligence (AI) and non-AI workload. Small summary In this guide, Meta said that they will continue to support the application family while switching to the new data center architecture. I think this is a wise choice because it is the most cost-effective. In fact, I still have something to do with Meta, especially the cost of the funds it invests in the meta-universe is too high and the unknown is also large. However, on the technical side, the stock price has fallen a lot, and the rebound will continue, plus the $40 billion stock repurchase incentive announced by the management. I think the short-term market psychological resistance area is about $200, and the support area is about $148-150. $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$  @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger 
Meta is it a good company at a good position now ?

Where do EVs in US market stand

With the soaring stock price of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Tesla.US, it not only promotes the stock price of other emerging electric vehicles, but also affects the market situation of some American brand electric vehicles. Here we will sort out the recent developments and events of this industry. General Motors (GM)  Personally, I think $General Motors(GM)$ GM's fourth-season financial report is excellent. Its brand Chevrolet, the affordable electric vehicle Bolt launched, successfully promoted GM's share of the electric vehicle market from 1% to 6%. Bolt's low-cost strategy has attracted many consumers who want to own a simple walking electric car. In addition to the excellent financial report, GM announced that it will invest $650 million in the American lithium mining company LAC to ensure the future supply of lithium raw materials, and also respond to the requirements of domestic raw materials in the tax reduction policy for electric vehicles. I realize that GM is steadily moving towards the transformation of electric vehicles, and I plan to launch a number of newly designed electric cars, pickup trucks and SUVs this year and next year. Although its gross profit margin is only half that of Tesla, GM is moving towards maritime tactics, occupying the market through a variety of models. For more conservative American consumers, GM's brand value still exists, but I predict that global sales may not improve much. Ford decided to reduce the price I think under the pressure of Tesla's price reduction, $Ford(F)$ Ford also announced a 20% reduction in the price of its electric vehicles. Last year, Ford's profit of electric vehicles was close to zero under the influence of Qualcomm, but the current price reduction will only make the situation worse. Even so, in order to maintain competitiveness, price reduction is a last resort. In the fourth quarter financial report released, Ford's cost savings have achieved some results, and the gross profit margin has not decreased. After the price reduction, Ford may still be able to maintain the profit, otherwise Tesla will get 20% profit for every car sold, and Ford will sell it at a loss, which is really unbearable. Lucid Motors Last Friday, it was reported that the Saudi Arabian Sovereign Fund announced the acquisition of all the shares of Lucid Motors, which led to a sharp rise in Lucid's stock price of more than 100%, and finally closed at about $12. There were many limit-ups and limit-downs on the way. Although Lucid's vehicle design is exquisite, it is relatively slow in mass production speed. Only 7,100 vehicles were produced in 2022, and the cash flow is also decreasing. Fortunately, large shareholders in Saudi Arabia especially love boutique cars and hold more than 60% of the company's shares, so It can provide strong support for Lucid's operation. Rivian I think it should be noted that $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$  Rivian recently announced that it will lay off again, and 6% of its employees will be laid off, which will be a big blow to its production capacity. With high labor costs and the large discount of competitor Tesla, it is difficult for Rivian to cope with such a discount competition. At the same time, the price of its model is also high, which does not meet the government's tax reduction conditions. Now, he must focus on meeting Amazon's needs and produce electric delivery vehicles as soon as possible. $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$  @TigerStars @Tiger_chat @Daily_Discussion @MillionaireTiger 
Where do EVs in US market stand

Hidden Gem in medical industry

As for the core assets of large consumer categories, such as liquor, known as A-shares, may be the reason I don't drink alcohol myself; I only pay some attention to these sectors. For large consumers, emerging industries with low penetration rates are the focus of my attention. As a result, I began to pay attention to the transplant industry last year. Yonghe is a Hong Kong-listed company that I had been watching until now, a leader in the hair transplant industry. I often see people ask, is a hair transplant medical or cosmetic? Why is everyone asking that? Because hair transplantation is actually a medical aesthetic minimally traumatic surgery, it is necessary to go to a regular, professional institution to perform it. Just in time for the end of the year 2022, Yonghe Medical's first comprehensive hair hospital opened in Shanghai, setting a new benchmark for the industry. On December 29, 2022, Shanghai Yonghe Hospital, the first comprehensive hair hospital under Yonghe Medical, opened. Shanghai Yonghe Hospital has a construction area of 8,800 square meters, a total of four floors, 20 open beds, and more than 80 hospital employees, including 11 doctors, 28 nurses, 20 nurses, 20 nurses, 2 examiners, and 1 pharmacist. The transformation from a hair transplant medical institution to a comprehensive hair hospital is another step in the company's expansion from the hair transplant market to the hair market. The newly built comprehensive hair hospital is qualified as a first-class general hospital. In addition to the hair transplant department, it has also set up various departments related to hair, such as alopecia, follow-up, international medicine, female aesthetics, traditional Chinese medicine, and psychology, to provide patients with professional diagnosis and comprehensive treatment. Yonghe's philosophy has always been that hair problems are inherently dependent on a doctor's professional diagnosis, and it is important to select the most appropriate treatment combination from a wide range of treatments for hair-related problems, including medicines, professional or medical equipment, possible surgeries, and hair strengthening products. Therefore, “guided by great theory”, Yonghe can always remain keen on changes in hair development trends, continuously improve comprehensive hair care service capabilities, and stay ahead of the industry. $YONGHE MEDICAL(02279)$  $HSI(HSI)$  @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger 
Hidden Gem in medical industry

HSI have not peaked yet…read on why I think so?

I think Hong Kong stocks have reached a short-term peak at 22,700 points for the time being. I believe that when the first quarter results of this year appear, Hong Kong stocks will undergo significant adjustments. I believe there will be good support around 20,000 points.  My Prediction  And at the end of the half year, the Hang Seng Index can see 25,000 points. Therefore, I think friends who hold Hong Kong stocks do not need to panic, but those who do not hold shares can absorb their favorite stocks around 20,000 to 21,000 points. As long as the stock holding strategy is maintained this year, I believe there will be good returns.  Why am I so confident that Hong Kong stocks will continue to rise?  I think we can refer to the following points:  1) Since the beginning of this year, many foreign capital and investors have transferred funds to emerging market stock markets, among which Hong Kong stocks are their targets, because the transaction and transaction amount are more active than other emerging markets. And it's easy to get money in and out. Therefore, it is wise to transfer the more expensive US dollar assets to the Hong Kong stock market with potential growth.  2) The core of Hong Kong stocks is to look at the trend of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds. If U.S. stocks fall and the U.S. dollar peaks and falls, and U.S. bond yields also fall, then from the past, Hong Kong stocks will perform better than U.S. stocks in this case. 3) Most of the stocks in Hong Kong stocks are Chinese stocks, so we have to refer to the economic data of the Mainland. Looking back at fundamentals, the manufacturing PMI rebounded by 3.1 percentage points to 50.1% in January, and the non-manufacturing business activity index rebounded by 12.8 percentage points to 54.4%, both of which returned to the expansion range, reflecting a significant increase in corporate confidence and the recovery of production and business activities The momentum is strong, and the prospect of continued economic recovery is promising. With the optimization of the epidemic prevention policy and a number of policies including the real estate policy to support the economy, this will be conducive to the recovery of Hong Kong's economy. 4) Hong Kong's GDP contracted by 4.2% in the fourth quarter, marking four consecutive quarters of decline in 2022. Real GDP also contracted by 3.5% year-on-year, but there were signs of a sequential acceleration in January. It means that the economic recovery is on the right track. 5) I'm pretty confident that Hong Kong's economy should be able to resume expansion this year, not just because mainland tourists are coming back after reopening, but we have more supportive stock valuations, which will definitely help lift market sentiment in Hong Kong .  6) At present, there are differences between domestic and foreign capital. Foreign capital flows in and domestic capital sells. Domestic capital values ​​the improvement of macro data, while foreign capital values ​​the need for allocation.  Therefore, Hong Kong stocks are still their first choice. Based on the above points, I think Hong Kong stocks will not peak and fall, but adjust, and finally rise to 25,000 points. $HSI(HSI)$ $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ $TENCENT(00700)$ $Alibaba(09988)$  @Tiger_chat @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger 
HSI have not peaked yet…read on why I think so?

This year is EV industry is heating up

In the first month of the Year of the Rabbit, the main car-making forces, the delivery list of new energy vehicles came out, $BYD shares. HK unexpectedly announced its results on the first day this year. The delivery volume of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla and BYD is not the same order of magnitude as that of other car companies, so it is not included in the list. What is more interesting this time is that the transcripts announced by car companies are usually relatively late. The ideals with the best results are announced first, and many others are not announced until 8 p.m. The results of the "monthly examination" in the first month of the Year of the Rabbit are also expected by many people. Although there are factors during the Spring Festival holiday, it can be seen that the competition is really getting more and more fierce. Last year, there was a rotation at the top of the new power list. It is estimated that it will stabilize this year. In a word, the cruel knockout match in the first month of the Year of the Rabbit is positive. The style has been played! January is due to the Spring Festival holiday factor, and $Tesla. US price reduction and new energy vehicle national subsidy cancellation factor, the number of car companies with more than 10,000 deliveries is only 2 cars, 4 fewer than in December. The December list is still $Ideal Automobile-W.HK, GAC Ai'an, $NIO-SW.HK, Nezha, $Xiaopeng Automobile-W.HK, Wenjie, Extreme Krypton, Arashitu, $Zero Sports Car. HK List in January 1. For example, the ideal I expected last month killed Nezha and won the first place in the new power and general list with 15,141 units, while Nezha only has 6,106 units, so there is no need to pay attention to it anymore. Ideal has also become the only car company that grew in January. The Spring Festival last February, so January is basically the peak sales period of car companies. 2. Aian $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ can only rank second this time. NIO Xiaoli ranked well this time. NIO ranked third in the total list with 8,506 units, and the new forces ranked second. 3. $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$  Xiaopeng ranked fifth in the total list this time, leaving the question world and extremely krypton behind this time. After Tesla reduced the price, Xiaopeng barely survived. It was not bad for the G9 to deliver more than 2,000 vehicles. Although Xiaopeng has widened the gap with the ideal, this ranking is also the best in recent months. So Xiaopeng is not the saddest this year. If you continue, there will be hope. 4.$BYD COMPANY(01211)$  After Huawei's fever, the temperature dropped. I think it's normal. The competition of electric vehicles still depends on products. Marketing cannot last. Products are the first element. In addition, the BYD joint venture company Tengshi D9 delivered more than 6,000 SUVs in December, and the delivery volume in January was about 5,200 according to the insurance data, exceeding the question. Ideal attracts a new opponent in the SUV, but the impact on the question world may be greater. 5. Zero ran to the last place this time, and also fell off the chain. This year's life will be more sad than Xiaopeng. Last February was the Spring Festival, so I also specially compared the situation of car companies with February last year. The ideal data is still the most dazzling. The knockout match in 2023 has begun. According to what Li wants to say before, in fact, there is no need for so many car companies in the market. By the end of the year, let's see if these car companies are still there. Let's wait and see! @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger @TigerStars 
This year is EV industry is heating up
I remember when I was a book work in the childhood as I was stopped from using smart devices... I still remember the incident as a child as it was my Sherlock moment....I am trying my best to recall and put it into words...Ihope You all enjoy reading this  ---------------------------------- Sometimes what you find nestled within the pages of a book amplifies the story that the author is trying to tell. And I say trying because every writer is always only trying. There is always this flavor of experience that doesn’t find its way into the author’s words—-however beautiful they may be. It is a private, pure thing that belongs to the person and only to them. I’ve found dried leaves in Lord Byron collections, feathers in Dickens’ books, and study notes in Shakespeare’s plays. But the most memorable item I’ve discovered was a note on the first crispy page of a PG Wodehouse collection. It was a list of numbers that looked something like this: 121:4:9 32:1:3 173:5:8 and so on…. I was 8 and still adventurous so I quickly figured out that they were actually organized as Page number: Paragraph number: Word number I carefully matched each code to a word and it spelled out: Will you marry me…. I still wonder how that book found its way into a library collection. Had the girl rejected the proposal? Had the marriage ended? Had the couple lived a happy life and their children donated a box of old books to the library not knowing that their family had started on the yellow page of a British comedy novel? Anyway, it was delightful to have the chance to intimately experience a stranger’s proposal. I hope she said yes.

Is tesla in trouble becoming another internet company? Read on…

Continuous price cuts, Tesla does not rely on selling cars to make money, what? Tesla's $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ first price cut this year is the fourth price cut since the end of September last year. What's even more frightening is that after consecutive price cuts, Tesla's gross profit margin can still be as high as 25.6%, and its annual revenue in 2022 will be 81.5 billion US dollars. GAAP net profit is as high as 12.6 billion US dollars. I think this will really make domestic auto companies such as Weilai$Li Auto(LI)$ , $NIO Inc.(NIO)$  Ideal, and Xiaopeng$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$  sweat. How will domestic auto companies face Tesla’s price in 2023? If Tesla cuts prices again, will it keep up? Personally, I always feel that following is death, and not following is death. After all, many domestic new energy car companies, most of them are at a loss. Tesla makes so much money, how does it make money?  Sell ​​carbon credits and FSD subscriptions. The latest financial report data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2022, Tesla’s carbon credit trading revenue was US$467 million, an increase of 49% from US$314 million in the same period last year. In the 10-year period from fiscal year 2012 to fiscal year 2021, carbon credit trading revenue contributed a total of US$5.34 billion in operating income to Tesla. On January 18, Tesla officially adjusted the price of FSD (full self-driving capability) on the US official website, from $10,000 to $12,000. The price increase of FSD means that Tesla's software-related revenue will further increase, which will play an increasingly important role in driving Tesla's performance. As early as Q3 of 2021, Tesla’s service and other revenue including FSD was 890 million US dollars, accounting for 6.5% of total revenue. Fully autonomous driving will gradually be accepted by people in the future. Once fully autonomous driving is realized on a large scale, Tesla will become a mobile terminal. Its huge user base is enough to support Tesla’s FSD subscription model.  Then Tesla is likely to be like Software service providers make money as well. @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @Tiger_chat @CaptainTiger 
Is tesla in trouble becoming another internet company? Read on…
According to the disclosure documents of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Berkshire Hathaway sold 1.55 million BYD H $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ shares on January 27, with an average selling price of HK$226.32 per share, cashing in HK$350 million, and the proportion of BYD H shares held increased from 13.04 % fell to 12.9%. Buffett once again reduced his holdings of BYD's H shares. I think that in terms of BYD, the company's sales have repeatedly hit new highs. The current operating conditions are healthy and everything is normal. It's just the shareholder reduction behavior and the shareholder's investment decision-making.  My opinion is that there is no need to be too pessimistic. I think Buffett has the following points for reference:  1) It is the intrinsic value of the company that determines the stock price. BYD is already the world's top new energy vehicle sales leader, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales, revenue and profit is very fast; in addition, with the expansion of production capacity, the external supply of batteries will soon increase. This is the basic factor supporting BYD's intrinsic value. 2) Buffett's reduction has nothing to do with BYD's intrinsic value, because Berkshire Hathaway is not a strategic investment for BYD, but a pure financial investment. Berkshire Hathaway's shareholding reduction has no impact on BYD's operations, and there is no possibility that the management will reduce its holdings due to lack of confidence in the company or because of inside information.  3) Another reason for Buffett's reduction in holdings may be macro factors such as Sino-US relations, Hong Kong stock market liquidity, or his own financial planning, rather than BYD itself.  4) From a technical point of view, it is impossible for Buffett to "sell at a low price" at any cost when reducing his holdings, because this will reduce his investment yield, and there is no reason for Buffett to "sell at a low price";  To put it another way, even if he wants to "sell at a low price", there will be many other US dollar funds to take over, thus supporting the stock price. Based on the above points, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway company's reduction of BYD will have a certain impact on short-term sentiment, but long-term investors need not be pessimistic. $HSI(HSI)$  $XIAOMI-W(01810)$  @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @MillionaireTiger @Tiger_chat 
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike last night, with the benchmark rate ranging from 4.5% to 4.75%, in line with market expectations. Importantly, Powell's remarks at the press conference stated: * Two more rate hikes are expected to keep rates at appropriate levels. The assessment of the rate hike path will be updated in March. It is expected that the final interest rate will remain at around 5%, and there will be no rate cut this year. * For the first time, he said: "Disinflation has begun." * He is optimistic about the U.S. economy, believing that inflation is expected to fall back to 2%, without a severe recession and a significant increase in unemployment, signaling a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. I think what surprised the market is that Powell did not choose to be a hawk in the face of a sharp rebound in US stocks. On the contrary, he was more optimistic about the economy and inflation. This has the market starting to wonder whether the Federal Reserve is already preparing for a pause in rate hikes, or even a rate cut. However, as an investor, you still need to pay attention to the fact that the economy will continue to be affected by the lag of interest rate hikes, including the continuous large-scale layoffs in the technology industry, the decline in retail sales data, the decline in manufacturing data, and the company's lowered performance guidance. In addition, with the unblocking of China, the price of copper and oil have risen significantly, which may also affect the market's concerns about the return of inflation. "Sit first and then jump" before the bull market starts again, will it sit down? Or squeeze the short until the Air Force surrenders? This can only be seen while walking, but I will choose the operation of continuous rallies adjustment. $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ 

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