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09-25

Good try, mate! I am holding.

Palantir: Insiders Are Selling, And So Am I

2023-08-05

I am holding and not selling till price hit above $100.

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09-21

Good try mate

Palantir's CEO Unloads Shares: A Telling Inflection Point

2023-11-16

noted but I am holding

Palantir Stock: Look Out Below

2023-04-21

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $145

2023-05-23

writer pls share what's your portfolio size on Tesla?

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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I am holding.&nbsp;","listText":"Good try, mate! I am holding.&nbsp;","text":"Good try, mate! I am holding.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353214810652792","repostId":"1150917086","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150917086","pubTimestamp":1727236526,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150917086?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-25 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Insiders Are Selling, And So Am I","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150917086","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummarySince my last report on PLTR, Palantir's stock has surged by ~35% to $37 per share, catalyzed by multiple partnership announcements, AIPCon event, and inclusion into the S&P 500.Despite Palantir's robust business momentum, its valuation is detached from financial realities, as seen through a reverse DCF model in this note.Insiders are selling aggressively, and I am trimming again. Read on to learn why!Looking for a helping hand in the market?While swathes of investors are chomping at the ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3740539871\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Since my last report on PLTR, Palantir&#39;s stock has surged by ~35% to $37 per share, catalyzed by multiple partnership announcements, AIPCon event, and inclusion into the S&amp;P 500.</p></li><li><p>Despite Palantir&#39;s robust business momentum, its valuation is detached from financial realities, as seen through a reverse DCF model in this note.</p></li><li><p>Insiders are selling aggressively, and I am trimming again. Read on to learn why!</p></li><li><p>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Quantamental Investor get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1790837128\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Introduction</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In early August, I downgraded Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) to a tactical &#34;Sell&#34; rating after yet another post-ER pop:</p><blockquote><p><em>As of Q2, Palantir&#39;s business momentum is robust, with the AI/data enterprise software company delivering a solid mix of revenue growth and profitability. While I am impressed with Palantir&#39;s quarterly business performance and management&#39;s forward outlook, PLTR&#39;s valuation is detached from the financial realities of the business. Based on its 5-year expected CAGR return, Palantir stock is virtually dead money.</em></p><p><strong><em>Key Takeaway:</em></strong><em> Due to unfavorable long-term risk/reward, I am downgrading Palantir Technologies Inc. stock to a tactical &#34;Sell&#34; at $27.7 per share.</em></p></blockquote><p>Since the publication of this report, Palantir stock has shot up by ~35% to $37 per share, with bidding up PLTR stock from ~25x P/S to ~36x P/S on the back of exciting partnership announcements [like Microsoft, BP], Palantir&#39;s AIPCon event, and yesterday&#39;s inclusion to the S&amp;P 500 (SPX)(SPY).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da2dc88b6b3cb0f57f42e146e39d76c1\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p>Given Palantir&#39;s bullish price action, trimming in the $20s looks like a mistake. However, at TQI, we invest and divest based on long-term risk/reward and do so in a staggered manner.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f4e6824a674543bde8f28ee2223fb94\" alt=\"Palantir Trade Activity (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)\" title=\"Palantir Trade Activity (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"/><span>Palantir Trade Activity (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf020a08ccfe438cab68f623d042112a\" alt=\"Current Palantir Position (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)\" title=\"Current Palantir Position (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>Current Palantir Position (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2454cd980c7c997c386b9353acb1544d\" alt=\"TQI Chats\" title=\"TQI Chats\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"189\"/><span>TQI Chats</span></p><p>After trimming Palantir on three separate occasions this year, we have divested our principal investment in PLTR stock. While I have stuck with our plan of letting the house money ride since our last sale in early August, Palantir&#39;s current weight [2.84%] in our Moonshot Growth portfolio is well above our target allocation of 2%. And so, in light of PLTR&#39;s explosive run-up over the past month or so, I think it is time for a re-evaluation!</p><h2 id=\"id_2266121478\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Is Palantir&#39;s Trading Multiple Expansion Justified?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While swathes of investors are chomping at the bit to buy PLTR stock right now at an exorbitant ~36x P/S multiple, it wasn&#39;t long ago that PLTR was trading at just ~5-6x P/S, and at the time, few buyers were to be found.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a7f5e52aa8d154a702a23bd415a4c3b\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Chart</span></p><h3 id=\"id_736216749\" style=\"text-align: left;\">So, what&#39;s changed?</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Well, for starters, Palantir has re-accelerated top-line growth in recent quarters [driven by Palantir AIP-led hypergrowth in US Commercial revenues] and turned into a free cash flow generating machine!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/97754c076efca04b6521a4e311642600\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p>And, with Palantir AIP [artificial intelligence platform] rapidly gaining traction among large enterprise customers, consensus revenue and earnings expectations for Palantir have been climbing higher, as evidenced by these broadly positive quarterly revision trends.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d8cafc46e7f49f03a9412e84722a1e09\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Earnings Forecasts\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Earnings Forecasts\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Earnings Forecasts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ded52d7271912c011ecadd08cea44556\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Revenue Forecasts\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Revenue Forecasts\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Revenue Forecasts</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As I shared in my Q2 review, Palantir is showing robust momentum from a business standpoint. Today, Palantir is one of the few recognizable early winners in the AI era. As such, investors are willing to pay 36x sales for the data/AI/ML company. However, valuations are inherently subjective. While financial metrics like revenue, profit, and growth rates provide objective data, their interpretation and weight in determining a company&#39;s worth vary significantly. Factors such as market trends, industry competition, potential future earnings, and even investors&#39; personal preferences can influence how a company is valued at any given point in time.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In my view, the efficient market hypothesis is a fallacy, as stocks could easily get detached from their intrinsic values and stay at elevated or depressed levels for long periods of time.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/972037d82629b842a156b8e15ddcdb3a\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s Annual Revenue Forecasts\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s Annual Revenue Forecasts\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s Annual Revenue Forecasts</span></p><p>Despite Palantir&#39;s robust margin profile, its trading multiple is out of whack with forward growth estimates [5-year expected CAGR sales growth: ~20%]. Let&#39;s visualize this through a reverse DCF model.</p><h2 id=\"id_3381752563\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Palantir Reverse DCF Model</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">For this exercise, I modeled PLTR with a 2024E revenue base of $2.76B [up from $2.75B] and assumed an optimized FCF margin of 35% [significantly higher than current margins]. All other assumptions are straightforward and self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8441e739850be681d71391f4c23ec14\" alt=\"TQI Valuation Model TQI Valuation Model\" title=\"TQI Valuation Model TQI Valuation Model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"573\"/><span>TQI Valuation Model TQI Valuation Model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to this reverse DCF model result, the market is currently pricing a 5-year CAGR sales growth rate of 50.68% into Palantir&#39;s stock!</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">With consensus analyst estimates suggesting a 5-year CAGR sales growth rate of ~20%, there&#39;s a spectacular mismatch between business realities (as measured by several Wall Street analysts) and market pricing of PLTR stock.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Now, can all analysts be wrong? Sure, forward analyst estimates can be wrong for Palantir or any stock out there. However, a 36x P/S and 126x P/FCF multiple is rare, and Palantir isn&#39;t quite delivering hypergrowth [growing at ~27% y/y] to justify such outrageous valuation multiples.</p><h2 id=\"id_3873715439\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Insiders Get It And Are Selling Aggressively</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Palantir&#39;s dynamic CEO, Alex Karp, seemingly never fails to hype up Palantir&#39;s business prospects during media appearances and earnings conference calls. However, he just sold ~8.7M PLTR shares worth over $300M under a 10b5-1 trading plan soon after exercising stock options.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1a3ebc2141740da0fe5ab4c41be5e196\" alt=\"Palantir Insider selling\" title=\"Palantir Insider selling\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"551\"/><span>Palantir Insider selling</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">And Karp isn&#39;t alone. Palantir&#39;s co-founder and legendary tech investor - Peter Thiel - recently filed a new 10b5-1 trading plan to sell up to 28.5M PLTR shares (worth up to ~$1B) in the near future!</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But, AI, AI, AI?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Look, Palantir is a great company, and its AI potential is real. However, current market pricing for PLTR stock is irrationally exuberant. Palantir insiders understand this reality and are selling aggressively.</p><h2 id=\"id_3839645096\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Concluding Thoughts</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Recent S&amp;P 500 index inclusions like Uber (UBER) have showcased active investors&#39; affinity to front-run passive index investors - boosting stock prices (and consequently, valuation multiples) ahead of index inclusion dates and then selling into forced buying from rules-based indexers.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In my view, a good chunk of Palantir&#39;s latest leg up is a result of this dynamic!</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d8859609fe3a8959adadbe3f38c7cad\" alt=\"Author, TrendSpider\" title=\"Author, TrendSpider\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\"/><span>Author, TrendSpider</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">From a technical standpoint, Palantir is enjoying strong price momentum right now; however, with weekly RSI in overbought territory (&gt;70) and PLTR&#39;s price diverging from RSI, a corrective pullback could be just around the corner, especially now that Palantir&#39;s inclusion into the S&amp;P 500 index is completed.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Based on reasonable assumptions for future growth [5-year CAGR sales growth: 25%] and margins [FCF margin: 35%], TQI&#39;s fair value estimate for Palantir stands at $15.33 per share.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25671b630b966bd6c10d93685badec5e\" alt=\"TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)\" title=\"TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"575\"/><span>TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Given its recent run-up from $27 to $37 per share, Palantir&#39;s potential downside to our fair value estimate has increased from -45% at our previous assessment to -59%!</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Now, as I have said in the past, we shouldn&#39;t dismiss the idea of investing in Palantir solely due to its premium valuation, as history shows that winning stocks can be overvalued for long periods [e.g., Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), etc.]. So, let&#39;s take a look at Palantir&#39;s long-term risk/reward to formulate an informed decision:</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Assuming an aggressive exit multiple of 25x P/FCF, I see Palantir stock declining from $37 to $32.5 per share at a CAGR rate of -2.7% by 2029.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/95857aa50ede9e240b66004f8f560556\" alt=\"TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)\" title=\"TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span>TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Despite modeling Palantir with above-consensus assumptions, the expected 5-year CAGR return for PLTR stock is abysmal. In fact, with a negative expected 5-year CAGR return, Palantir looks worse than dead money.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As we saw in this note, Palantir insiders are selling right now, and I think it is for a good reason. While I am open to continuously re-evaluating Palantir over coming months and quarters as new financial information comes to light, at this point, I continue to view PLTR stock as a tactical &#34;Sell&#34; and we will trim our PLTR long position again at TQI over the next few days.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> Due to unfavorable long-term risk/reward, I continue to rate Palantir Technologies Inc. stock a tactical &#34;Sell&#34; at $37 per share.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Insiders Are Selling, And So Am I</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Insiders Are Selling, And So Am I\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-25 11:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722770-palantir-insiders-are-selling-and-so-am-i><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySince my last report on PLTR, Palantir's stock has surged by ~35% to $37 per share, catalyzed by multiple partnership announcements, AIPCon event, and inclusion into the S&P 500.Despite ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722770-palantir-insiders-are-selling-and-so-am-i\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722770-palantir-insiders-are-selling-and-so-am-i","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1150917086","content_text":"SummarySince my last report on PLTR, Palantir's stock has surged by ~35% to $37 per share, catalyzed by multiple partnership announcements, AIPCon event, and inclusion into the S&P 500.Despite Palantir's robust business momentum, its valuation is detached from financial realities, as seen through a reverse DCF model in this note.Insiders are selling aggressively, and I am trimming again. Read on to learn why!Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Quantamental Investor get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.IntroductionIn early August, I downgraded Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) to a tactical \"Sell\" rating after yet another post-ER pop:As of Q2, Palantir's business momentum is robust, with the AI/data enterprise software company delivering a solid mix of revenue growth and profitability. While I am impressed with Palantir's quarterly business performance and management's forward outlook, PLTR's valuation is detached from the financial realities of the business. Based on its 5-year expected CAGR return, Palantir stock is virtually dead money.Key Takeaway: Due to unfavorable long-term risk/reward, I am downgrading Palantir Technologies Inc. stock to a tactical \"Sell\" at $27.7 per share.Since the publication of this report, Palantir stock has shot up by ~35% to $37 per share, with bidding up PLTR stock from ~25x P/S to ~36x P/S on the back of exciting partnership announcements [like Microsoft, BP], Palantir's AIPCon event, and yesterday's inclusion to the S&P 500 (SPX)(SPY).ChartGiven Palantir's bullish price action, trimming in the $20s looks like a mistake. However, at TQI, we invest and divest based on long-term risk/reward and do so in a staggered manner.Palantir Trade Activity (TQI's Moonshot Growth Portfolio)Current Palantir Position (TQI's Moonshot Growth Portfolio)TQI ChatsAfter trimming Palantir on three separate occasions this year, we have divested our principal investment in PLTR stock. While I have stuck with our plan of letting the house money ride since our last sale in early August, Palantir's current weight [2.84%] in our Moonshot Growth portfolio is well above our target allocation of 2%. And so, in light of PLTR's explosive run-up over the past month or so, I think it is time for a re-evaluation!Is Palantir's Trading Multiple Expansion Justified?While swathes of investors are chomping at the bit to buy PLTR stock right now at an exorbitant ~36x P/S multiple, it wasn't long ago that PLTR was trading at just ~5-6x P/S, and at the time, few buyers were to be found.ChartSo, what's changed?Well, for starters, Palantir has re-accelerated top-line growth in recent quarters [driven by Palantir AIP-led hypergrowth in US Commercial revenues] and turned into a free cash flow generating machine!ChartAnd, with Palantir AIP [artificial intelligence platform] rapidly gaining traction among large enterprise customers, consensus revenue and earnings expectations for Palantir have been climbing higher, as evidenced by these broadly positive quarterly revision trends.Palantir's Quarterly Earnings ForecastsPalantir's Quarterly Revenue ForecastsAs I shared in my Q2 review, Palantir is showing robust momentum from a business standpoint. Today, Palantir is one of the few recognizable early winners in the AI era. As such, investors are willing to pay 36x sales for the data/AI/ML company. However, valuations are inherently subjective. While financial metrics like revenue, profit, and growth rates provide objective data, their interpretation and weight in determining a company's worth vary significantly. Factors such as market trends, industry competition, potential future earnings, and even investors' personal preferences can influence how a company is valued at any given point in time.In my view, the efficient market hypothesis is a fallacy, as stocks could easily get detached from their intrinsic values and stay at elevated or depressed levels for long periods of time.Palantir's Annual Revenue ForecastsDespite Palantir's robust margin profile, its trading multiple is out of whack with forward growth estimates [5-year expected CAGR sales growth: ~20%]. Let's visualize this through a reverse DCF model.Palantir Reverse DCF ModelFor this exercise, I modeled PLTR with a 2024E revenue base of $2.76B [up from $2.75B] and assumed an optimized FCF margin of 35% [significantly higher than current margins]. All other assumptions are straightforward and self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.TQI Valuation Model TQI Valuation ModelAccording to this reverse DCF model result, the market is currently pricing a 5-year CAGR sales growth rate of 50.68% into Palantir's stock!With consensus analyst estimates suggesting a 5-year CAGR sales growth rate of ~20%, there's a spectacular mismatch between business realities (as measured by several Wall Street analysts) and market pricing of PLTR stock.Now, can all analysts be wrong? Sure, forward analyst estimates can be wrong for Palantir or any stock out there. However, a 36x P/S and 126x P/FCF multiple is rare, and Palantir isn't quite delivering hypergrowth [growing at ~27% y/y] to justify such outrageous valuation multiples.Insiders Get It And Are Selling AggressivelyPalantir's dynamic CEO, Alex Karp, seemingly never fails to hype up Palantir's business prospects during media appearances and earnings conference calls. However, he just sold ~8.7M PLTR shares worth over $300M under a 10b5-1 trading plan soon after exercising stock options.Palantir Insider sellingAnd Karp isn't alone. Palantir's co-founder and legendary tech investor - Peter Thiel - recently filed a new 10b5-1 trading plan to sell up to 28.5M PLTR shares (worth up to ~$1B) in the near future!But, AI, AI, AI?Look, Palantir is a great company, and its AI potential is real. However, current market pricing for PLTR stock is irrationally exuberant. Palantir insiders understand this reality and are selling aggressively.Concluding ThoughtsRecent S&P 500 index inclusions like Uber (UBER) have showcased active investors' affinity to front-run passive index investors - boosting stock prices (and consequently, valuation multiples) ahead of index inclusion dates and then selling into forced buying from rules-based indexers.In my view, a good chunk of Palantir's latest leg up is a result of this dynamic!Author, TrendSpiderFrom a technical standpoint, Palantir is enjoying strong price momentum right now; however, with weekly RSI in overbought territory (>70) and PLTR's price diverging from RSI, a corrective pullback could be just around the corner, especially now that Palantir's inclusion into the S&P 500 index is completed.Based on reasonable assumptions for future growth [5-year CAGR sales growth: 25%] and margins [FCF margin: 35%], TQI's fair value estimate for Palantir stands at $15.33 per share.TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)Given its recent run-up from $27 to $37 per share, Palantir's potential downside to our fair value estimate has increased from -45% at our previous assessment to -59%!Now, as I have said in the past, we shouldn't dismiss the idea of investing in Palantir solely due to its premium valuation, as history shows that winning stocks can be overvalued for long periods [e.g., Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), etc.]. So, let's take a look at Palantir's long-term risk/reward to formulate an informed decision:Assuming an aggressive exit multiple of 25x P/FCF, I see Palantir stock declining from $37 to $32.5 per share at a CAGR rate of -2.7% by 2029.TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)Despite modeling Palantir with above-consensus assumptions, the expected 5-year CAGR return for PLTR stock is abysmal. In fact, with a negative expected 5-year CAGR return, Palantir looks worse than dead money.As we saw in this note, Palantir insiders are selling right now, and I think it is for a good reason. While I am open to continuously re-evaluating Palantir over coming months and quarters as new financial information comes to light, at this point, I continue to view PLTR stock as a tactical \"Sell\" and we will trim our PLTR long position again at TQI over the next few days.Key Takeaway: Due to unfavorable long-term risk/reward, I continue to rate Palantir Technologies Inc. stock a tactical \"Sell\" at $37 per share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351572694929512,"gmtCreate":1726871836430,"gmtModify":1726871840558,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good try mate&nbsp;","listText":"Good try mate&nbsp;","text":"Good try mate","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351572694929512","repostId":"2468521616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2468521616","pubTimestamp":1726845666,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2468521616?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-20 23:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Palantir's CEO Unloads Shares: A Telling Inflection Point","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2468521616","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More Investment ThesisPalantir  is today a crowd favorite. It has amassed an amazing army of devoted investors.And yet, its captain has just unloaded about 10% of his holding. Does this inspire belief in the company?In time the stock moved higher and higher, but its path was so volatile, that it ensured that nearly nobody would have held on to PLTR. Indeed, I recognize that the majority of investors onl","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2026190940\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Inflection investing is challenging and often involves making unpopular decisions that others may not understand.</p></li><li><p>Recommending a stock can be unpopular because it involves seeing potential others can&#39;t.</p></li><li><p>Alex Karp selling 10% of his stake raises concerns for me; when the captain jumps ship, it often signals rough waters ahead.</p></li><li><p>At 54x forward free cash flow, Palantir is no longer undervalued, and my strategy demands I rotate capital into more favorable opportunities.</p></li><li><p>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_891944106\">Investment Thesis</h2><p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is today a crowd favorite. It has amassed an amazing army of devoted investors.</p><p>And yet, its captain has just unloaded about 10% of his holding. Does this inspire belief in the company? Or does it further nuance to what was already a highly contentious stock?</p><p>Having previously been a strong proponent of PLTR, I explain why Deep Value Returns recently sold out of PLTR, as I believed that paying more than 50x next year&#39;s free cash flow didn&#39;t make enough sense to me.</p><h2 id=\"id_3596142902\">Rapid Recap</h2><p>I recommended Palantir to subscribers of Deep Value Returns at $10 per share.</p><p>I also subsequently posted this on SA, in November 2023:</p><blockquote><p><em>For detractors of the stock, they&#39;ll be quick to remark that stock-based compensation, or SBC, continues to be excessive. However, I don&#39;t believe investors at this point mind. Why?</em></p><p><em>Not only is this element already priced in, but the fact that Palantir is already GAAP profitable largely does away with this bearish concern.</em></p><p><em>Altogether, I continue to declare that I believe this is a good time to buy Palantir, as the stock continues to demonstrate clear end-customer diversification as well as meaningful growth opportunities.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b10ba20aa66b2cd7ca6f341d4c016951\" alt=\"Author&#39;s work on PLTR\" title=\"Author&#39;s work on PLTR\" tg-width=\"324\" tg-height=\"415\"/><span>Author&#39;s work on PLTR</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Author&#39;s work on PLTR</strong></p></blockquote><p>Allow me to explain, <em>Inflection investing</em> is a lonely road. You are always making unpopular decisions.</p><p><em>You are unpopular when you recommend the stock because you see what others can&#39;t. You are unpopular when you sell the stock because you can&#39;t see what others do.</em></p><p>The return is made in the middle because hero investors end up as zero investors.</p><p>The moment I recommended PLTR, it fell from $10 to $7 per share. Naturally, my timing sucked. It was such an unpopular recommendation!</p><p>In time the stock moved higher and higher, but its path was so volatile, that it ensured that nearly nobody would have held on to PLTR. Indeed, I recognize that the majority of investors only invest with stop losses, and since PLTR was so volatile, I do not believe that anyone managed to make even 50% of what I made here.</p><p>But this makes sense, investing is difficult. Here&#39;s the thing, inflection investing succeeds best when I&#39;m making unpopular decisions.</p><h2 id=\"id_559688580\">Latest Development; Captain Starts To Sail Off</h2><p>SA reports there&#39;s a 10 million block sale by an unnamed person. Meanwhile, from my understanding, I can only see 9 million shares being sold from Alex Karp and a substantially smaller figure from Lauren Friedman.</p><p>Not quite sure where that 1 million shares came from that SA reports, but I don&#39;t believe that matters all that much at this point, for our discussion.</p><p>Meanwhile, in the interest of balance, I want to remark something that many investors will have forgotten.</p><p>If you zoom in on the table below, you&#39;ll see that Alex Karp has somewhere around 90 million shares. Hence, this sale is for around <em>10% of his holding</em>.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cba14728922433bdc14e698ff48b39ec\" alt=\"SEC filing; proxy statement\" title=\"SEC filing; proxy statement\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"/><span>SEC filing; proxy statement</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>SEC filing; proxy statement</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Consequently, I wouldn&#39;t be too quick to read into the headlines that everything has changed from management&#39;s perspective, despite a couple of insiders selling out of PLTR.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nevertheless, I wish to explain why I sold my ownership of PLTR.</p><h2 id=\"id_4058245110\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Why I Sold Palantir</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Palantir&#39;s Q2 2024 did not increase its free cash flow guidance beyond the midpoint of $900 million. However, given that its topline is now expected to increase so significantly compared with its earlier guidance, I now believe it <em>makes more sense to embrace Palantir&#39;s high end of its free cash flow guidance.</em> Hence, we should expect approximately $1 billion of free cash flow from Palantir in 2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Moreover, as we look out to 2025, given Palantir&#39;s increased scale, together with its strong growth rates, I believe that Palantir&#39;s free cash flow could reach $1.5 billion in 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This means that Palantir is being priced at approximately 54x next year&#39;s free cash flow. This doesn&#39;t strike me as all that expensive, for what it offers. Indeed, I could quite easily make the argument that there&#39;s still more upside potential here.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But at the same time, I don&#39;t want to be complacent. I know that the market is brutal. And it&#39;s very important to stick with my inflection investing strategy. As such, you can never rest on your laurels. You have to always be moving capital around, keeping only names that are extremely undervalued in the portfolio.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">For those interested, I deployed my capital into Peloton (PTON). And you may contend that PTON has nothing in common with the almighty PLTR. Did I simply misspell PLTR? Jesting aside, I believe that Palantir&#39;s risk-reward isn&#39;t all that compelling right now.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yes, it&#39;s not completely shocking to pay 54x forward free cash flow for Palantir. I continue to believe that its prospects are very interesting over the long term. But as an Inflection investor, I must always be thinking about investing as a game of odds. Of risk versus reward. Am I being sufficiently compensated for the potential reward? And I don&#39;t believe I am.</p><h2 id=\"id_2665484222\" style=\"text-align: left;\">The Bottom Line</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As an inflection investor, my strategy revolves around making difficult, often contrarian, decisions at key moments of change in a company&#39;s narrative.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I make moves when others are either overly enthusiastic or too pessimistic, always seeking value where it is hidden.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Palantir has been an exciting journey, but the fact that its CEO, Alex Karp, sold 10% of his stake should raise questions from its shareholders.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While some might view this sale as insignificant, it signals to me that even the captain may not be fully confident in the ship&#39;s future course. Combined with the high valuation and the uncertainties ahead, this diminishes the investment&#39;s appeal.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In investing, it&#39;s important to know when to hold &#39;em and when to fold &#39;em - and right now, the odds for Palantir just aren&#39;t stacked in my favor. In short, I&#39;d rather be ahead of the curve than left behind on a sinking ship!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir's CEO Unloads Shares: A Telling Inflection Point</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir's CEO Unloads Shares: A Telling Inflection Point\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-20 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722246-palantir-stock-ceo-unloads-telling-inflection-point-downgrade-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryInflection investing is challenging and often involves making unpopular decisions that others may not understand.Recommending a stock can be unpopular because it involves seeing potential ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722246-palantir-stock-ceo-unloads-telling-inflection-point-downgrade-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4023":"应用软件"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722246-palantir-stock-ceo-unloads-telling-inflection-point-downgrade-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2468521616","content_text":"SummaryInflection investing is challenging and often involves making unpopular decisions that others may not understand.Recommending a stock can be unpopular because it involves seeing potential others can't.Alex Karp selling 10% of his stake raises concerns for me; when the captain jumps ship, it often signals rough waters ahead.At 54x forward free cash flow, Palantir is no longer undervalued, and my strategy demands I rotate capital into more favorable opportunities.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »Investment ThesisPalantir (NYSE:PLTR) is today a crowd favorite. It has amassed an amazing army of devoted investors.And yet, its captain has just unloaded about 10% of his holding. Does this inspire belief in the company? Or does it further nuance to what was already a highly contentious stock?Having previously been a strong proponent of PLTR, I explain why Deep Value Returns recently sold out of PLTR, as I believed that paying more than 50x next year's free cash flow didn't make enough sense to me.Rapid RecapI recommended Palantir to subscribers of Deep Value Returns at $10 per share.I also subsequently posted this on SA, in November 2023:For detractors of the stock, they'll be quick to remark that stock-based compensation, or SBC, continues to be excessive. However, I don't believe investors at this point mind. Why?Not only is this element already priced in, but the fact that Palantir is already GAAP profitable largely does away with this bearish concern.Altogether, I continue to declare that I believe this is a good time to buy Palantir, as the stock continues to demonstrate clear end-customer diversification as well as meaningful growth opportunities.Author's work on PLTRAuthor's work on PLTRAllow me to explain, Inflection investing is a lonely road. You are always making unpopular decisions.You are unpopular when you recommend the stock because you see what others can't. You are unpopular when you sell the stock because you can't see what others do.The return is made in the middle because hero investors end up as zero investors.The moment I recommended PLTR, it fell from $10 to $7 per share. Naturally, my timing sucked. It was such an unpopular recommendation!In time the stock moved higher and higher, but its path was so volatile, that it ensured that nearly nobody would have held on to PLTR. Indeed, I recognize that the majority of investors only invest with stop losses, and since PLTR was so volatile, I do not believe that anyone managed to make even 50% of what I made here.But this makes sense, investing is difficult. Here's the thing, inflection investing succeeds best when I'm making unpopular decisions.Latest Development; Captain Starts To Sail OffSA reports there's a 10 million block sale by an unnamed person. Meanwhile, from my understanding, I can only see 9 million shares being sold from Alex Karp and a substantially smaller figure from Lauren Friedman.Not quite sure where that 1 million shares came from that SA reports, but I don't believe that matters all that much at this point, for our discussion.Meanwhile, in the interest of balance, I want to remark something that many investors will have forgotten.If you zoom in on the table below, you'll see that Alex Karp has somewhere around 90 million shares. Hence, this sale is for around 10% of his holding.SEC filing; proxy statementSEC filing; proxy statementConsequently, I wouldn't be too quick to read into the headlines that everything has changed from management's perspective, despite a couple of insiders selling out of PLTR.Nevertheless, I wish to explain why I sold my ownership of PLTR.Why I Sold PalantirPalantir's Q2 2024 did not increase its free cash flow guidance beyond the midpoint of $900 million. However, given that its topline is now expected to increase so significantly compared with its earlier guidance, I now believe it makes more sense to embrace Palantir's high end of its free cash flow guidance. Hence, we should expect approximately $1 billion of free cash flow from Palantir in 2024.Moreover, as we look out to 2025, given Palantir's increased scale, together with its strong growth rates, I believe that Palantir's free cash flow could reach $1.5 billion in 2025.This means that Palantir is being priced at approximately 54x next year's free cash flow. This doesn't strike me as all that expensive, for what it offers. Indeed, I could quite easily make the argument that there's still more upside potential here.But at the same time, I don't want to be complacent. I know that the market is brutal. And it's very important to stick with my inflection investing strategy. As such, you can never rest on your laurels. You have to always be moving capital around, keeping only names that are extremely undervalued in the portfolio.For those interested, I deployed my capital into Peloton (PTON). And you may contend that PTON has nothing in common with the almighty PLTR. Did I simply misspell PLTR? Jesting aside, I believe that Palantir's risk-reward isn't all that compelling right now.Yes, it's not completely shocking to pay 54x forward free cash flow for Palantir. I continue to believe that its prospects are very interesting over the long term. But as an Inflection investor, I must always be thinking about investing as a game of odds. Of risk versus reward. Am I being sufficiently compensated for the potential reward? And I don't believe I am.The Bottom LineAs an inflection investor, my strategy revolves around making difficult, often contrarian, decisions at key moments of change in a company's narrative.I make moves when others are either overly enthusiastic or too pessimistic, always seeking value where it is hidden.Palantir has been an exciting journey, but the fact that its CEO, Alex Karp, sold 10% of his stake should raise questions from its shareholders.While some might view this sale as insignificant, it signals to me that even the captain may not be fully confident in the ship's future course. Combined with the high valuation and the uncertainties ahead, this diminishes the investment's appeal.In investing, it's important to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em - and right now, the odds for Palantir just aren't stacked in my favor. In short, I'd rather be ahead of the curve than left behind on a sinking ship!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":242017585340488,"gmtCreate":1700123510555,"gmtModify":1700123724137,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"noted but I am holding","listText":"noted but I am holding","text":"noted but I am holding","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/242017585340488","repostId":"2383696718","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2383696718","pubTimestamp":1700122345,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2383696718?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-11-16 16:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock: Look Out Below","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2383696718","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir Technologies Inc. recently released its Q3 results, showing impressive growth in revenue and international business.The company also achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters,","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> recently released its Q3 results, showing impressive growth in revenue and international business.</p></li><li><p>The company also achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters, proving its sustainable business model.</p></li><li><p>However, there are three big reasons why we are bearish on the stock.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053e8f7209660fc698c584f5fa3a944e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) recently released its latest quarterly results, and the market largely cheered the results as the stock has soared higher since the results came out. That being said, we remain firmly bearish on the stock and share in this article why we are reiterating our Sell rating.</p><h2 id=\"id_2886967972\">PLTR Stock Q3 Positives</h2><p>While we are overall negative on the stock, we do believe that the company itself is fundamentally healthy and is accomplishing some really good things. For example, PLTR has demonstrated impressive growth recently in several key areas of its business. Their overall revenue grew by 16.8% year-over-year during the quarter, reaching $558 million, which surpassed analyst consensus expectations. Perhaps the most impressive number from the report was that they grew their international business by 15% to a total revenue of $134 million. Given that this had been an area of significant struggle for the company recently, an acceleration of growth to a mid-teens rate is quite notable and could bode well for the company if they can continue to accelerate that growth rate moving forward.</p><p>Moreover, the remarkable 33% year-over-year growth in PLTR&#39;s U.S. commercial revenue showed the staying power of PLTR&#39;s most dynamic business and demonstrates the company&#39;s ability to be a major data analytics and AI player for a broad array of clients, rather than being confined to strictly being a government/defense contractor. The tripling of users for PLTR&#39;s Artificial Intelligence Platform (&#34;AIP&#34;) demonstrates the company&#39;s growing influence in the AI sector and bodes well for continued strong commercial growth for quarters and years to come.</p><p>Perhaps most important of all is that the company has now achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters, proving that it can truly generate value for shareholders and has a sustainable business model instead of just chasing unprofitable topline growth financed by continuous equity issuance.</p><h2 id=\"id_785573460\">PLTR Stock Q3 Negatives</h2><p>However, there were also some negatives. Stock-based compensation expenses remain elevated and likely to increase in Q4, continuing to dilute shareholders in the process. While the company touted its buyback authorization on its Q2 earnings call, nothing was said about it on the Q3 earnings call, proving that it was purely a publicity stunt by management (much like its short-lived investment in gold bars was previously).</p><p>Moreover, government revenue only grew at a 10% year-over-year rate, continuing a recent trend of fairly slow government revenue growth. While the U.S. commercial business is posting very robust growth numbers, the slowdown in the government business is weighing on the company&#39;s overall growth performance and calling into question the ultimate total growth runway of the company. While the recent pickup in international growth is promising, it remains below the company&#39;s overall average growth rate and will need to pick up considerably for the company to achieve its full long-term potential. Additionally, the company&#39;s dependence on large deals to continue fueling growth and the potential for operational risks as Palantir rapidly expands its AI business are also areas of concern.</p><h2 id=\"id_3194736248\">Why PLTR Stock Is A Sell</h2><p>PLTR is clearly expanding its presence in commercial markets, achieving some improvement in international growth, leveraging and enhancing its AI capabilities, and achieving consistent profitability. That said, these strengths are ultimately not enough for us to upgrade the stock from being a Sell for the following reasons:</p><p><strong>Valuation:</strong> The stock trades at a very rich valuation right now, as the company&#39;s lack of execution on its buyback over the past quarter (despite the company having plenty of cash on its balance sheet and the stock price plummeting significantly during parts of the quarter) demonstrates. It currently trades at nearly 19 times its LTM revenue and nearly 16 times its NTM revenue. Moreover, it trades at over 52 times its NTM EBITDA, nearly 70 times its NTM normalized earnings, and over 81 times its NTM free cash flow (translating to an NTM free cash flow yield of just 1.2%). In an environment where 10-year treasury yields are nearly four times PLTR&#39;s free cash flow yield, it is pretty difficult to justify its current valuation multiple.</p><p>Additionally, while some may think that 16 times NTM revenue and 70 times NTM normalized earnings are not outrageous for a leading AI software company, the reality is that PLTR is not truly a software company. PLTR&#39;s business model has often been likened to being a hybrid between a software company and a consulting company due to its labor-intensiveness. As a result, it does not scale nearly as easily as a pure software-as-a-service or even an enterprise software business model. As a result, its profit margins have not been increasing as rapidly as one might expect relative to its strong rate of revenue growth. For example, over the next two years, its revenue is expected to grow at a 20.2% CAGR whereas its normalized earnings per share are only expected to grow at a 20.5% CAGR, reflecting a very slight expansion in its profit margin. As a result, its valuation multiples appear to be far too high relative to the bottom-line growth potential of the company.</p><p><strong>Decelerating Revenue Growth:</strong> Since PLTR went public, there has been a notable deceleration in Palantir&#39;s revenue growth, from nearly 50% to the mid-teens most recently. In fact, management has abandoned its original guidance for over $4 billion in 2025 revenue, and the company is now expected by the consensus of Wall Street analysts to generate only $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025 revenue. This deceleration could stem from several issues, including market saturation, increased competition, or a plateau in the adoption rate of Palantir&#39;s services. It appears that the market is counting on AI to accelerate PLTR&#39;s growth, but thus far there has not been much concrete evidence that this is happening in a meaningful way.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02a88ae7c557aa7f04f5d93e3f6b9bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>PLTR Recent Revenue Growth % (TIKR.com)</p><p></p><p>While analysts do seem to expect that AI will bolster PLTR&#39;s revenue growth rate, it is still only expected to grow its topline at a 23.7% CAGR through 2027:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50d93662bc87abdbf3093c1f2147e24e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>PLTR Projected Revenue Growth % (TIKR.com)</p><p></p><p><strong>Recession Concerns:</strong> Moreover, given that it appears that we are headed for a recession, it is entirely possible that PLTR may face some stiff growth headwinds moving forward. This is because in an economic downturn, companies often scale back on new and unproven technologies in order to cut costs and maximize short-term profitability during challenging economic periods.</p><p>Moreover, given the massive government deficits facing the United States and many of its allies right now, if tax revenues take a hit during a recession, it is very possible that they may cut back on nonessential spending across their departments. This poses a risk to Palantir, as its big data solutions, while valuable, may not be perceived as critical to near-term profitability and operations, resulting in delayed and/or reduced spending on Palantir&#39;s services by current and prospective clients.</p><h2 id=\"id_3986110713\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>While PLTR is clearly a prominent player in the AI and big data analytics space for both government and commercial enterprises, the current valuation is just too rich in our view. The stock will need to dramatically accelerate the growth rate of its government and international segments while sustaining its commercial growth rate and/or find a way to improve its economies of scale significantly in order to justify the lofty expectations being placed on it by Mr. Market. The elevated level of interest rates and growing risks of a recession further exacerbate the valuation issue at PLTR.</p><p>The company is clearly doing fine fundamentally and continues to generate consistent profitability for shareholders, which is a very good thing. However, until the valuation picture improves considerably, we remain bearish on the stock.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock: Look Out Below</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock: Look Out Below\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-16 16:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651946-palantir-stock-look-out-below><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir Technologies Inc. recently released its Q3 results, showing impressive growth in revenue and international business.The company also achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651946-palantir-stock-look-out-below\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4588":"碎股","BK4023":"应用软件"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651946-palantir-stock-look-out-below","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2383696718","content_text":"Palantir Technologies Inc. recently released its Q3 results, showing impressive growth in revenue and international business.The company also achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters, proving its sustainable business model.However, there are three big reasons why we are bearish on the stock.Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) recently released its latest quarterly results, and the market largely cheered the results as the stock has soared higher since the results came out. That being said, we remain firmly bearish on the stock and share in this article why we are reiterating our Sell rating.PLTR Stock Q3 PositivesWhile we are overall negative on the stock, we do believe that the company itself is fundamentally healthy and is accomplishing some really good things. For example, PLTR has demonstrated impressive growth recently in several key areas of its business. Their overall revenue grew by 16.8% year-over-year during the quarter, reaching $558 million, which surpassed analyst consensus expectations. Perhaps the most impressive number from the report was that they grew their international business by 15% to a total revenue of $134 million. Given that this had been an area of significant struggle for the company recently, an acceleration of growth to a mid-teens rate is quite notable and could bode well for the company if they can continue to accelerate that growth rate moving forward.Moreover, the remarkable 33% year-over-year growth in PLTR's U.S. commercial revenue showed the staying power of PLTR's most dynamic business and demonstrates the company's ability to be a major data analytics and AI player for a broad array of clients, rather than being confined to strictly being a government/defense contractor. The tripling of users for PLTR's Artificial Intelligence Platform (\"AIP\") demonstrates the company's growing influence in the AI sector and bodes well for continued strong commercial growth for quarters and years to come.Perhaps most important of all is that the company has now achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters, proving that it can truly generate value for shareholders and has a sustainable business model instead of just chasing unprofitable topline growth financed by continuous equity issuance.PLTR Stock Q3 NegativesHowever, there were also some negatives. Stock-based compensation expenses remain elevated and likely to increase in Q4, continuing to dilute shareholders in the process. While the company touted its buyback authorization on its Q2 earnings call, nothing was said about it on the Q3 earnings call, proving that it was purely a publicity stunt by management (much like its short-lived investment in gold bars was previously).Moreover, government revenue only grew at a 10% year-over-year rate, continuing a recent trend of fairly slow government revenue growth. While the U.S. commercial business is posting very robust growth numbers, the slowdown in the government business is weighing on the company's overall growth performance and calling into question the ultimate total growth runway of the company. While the recent pickup in international growth is promising, it remains below the company's overall average growth rate and will need to pick up considerably for the company to achieve its full long-term potential. Additionally, the company's dependence on large deals to continue fueling growth and the potential for operational risks as Palantir rapidly expands its AI business are also areas of concern.Why PLTR Stock Is A SellPLTR is clearly expanding its presence in commercial markets, achieving some improvement in international growth, leveraging and enhancing its AI capabilities, and achieving consistent profitability. That said, these strengths are ultimately not enough for us to upgrade the stock from being a Sell for the following reasons:Valuation: The stock trades at a very rich valuation right now, as the company's lack of execution on its buyback over the past quarter (despite the company having plenty of cash on its balance sheet and the stock price plummeting significantly during parts of the quarter) demonstrates. It currently trades at nearly 19 times its LTM revenue and nearly 16 times its NTM revenue. Moreover, it trades at over 52 times its NTM EBITDA, nearly 70 times its NTM normalized earnings, and over 81 times its NTM free cash flow (translating to an NTM free cash flow yield of just 1.2%). In an environment where 10-year treasury yields are nearly four times PLTR's free cash flow yield, it is pretty difficult to justify its current valuation multiple.Additionally, while some may think that 16 times NTM revenue and 70 times NTM normalized earnings are not outrageous for a leading AI software company, the reality is that PLTR is not truly a software company. PLTR's business model has often been likened to being a hybrid between a software company and a consulting company due to its labor-intensiveness. As a result, it does not scale nearly as easily as a pure software-as-a-service or even an enterprise software business model. As a result, its profit margins have not been increasing as rapidly as one might expect relative to its strong rate of revenue growth. For example, over the next two years, its revenue is expected to grow at a 20.2% CAGR whereas its normalized earnings per share are only expected to grow at a 20.5% CAGR, reflecting a very slight expansion in its profit margin. As a result, its valuation multiples appear to be far too high relative to the bottom-line growth potential of the company.Decelerating Revenue Growth: Since PLTR went public, there has been a notable deceleration in Palantir's revenue growth, from nearly 50% to the mid-teens most recently. In fact, management has abandoned its original guidance for over $4 billion in 2025 revenue, and the company is now expected by the consensus of Wall Street analysts to generate only $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025 revenue. This deceleration could stem from several issues, including market saturation, increased competition, or a plateau in the adoption rate of Palantir's services. It appears that the market is counting on AI to accelerate PLTR's growth, but thus far there has not been much concrete evidence that this is happening in a meaningful way.PLTR Recent Revenue Growth % (TIKR.com)While analysts do seem to expect that AI will bolster PLTR's revenue growth rate, it is still only expected to grow its topline at a 23.7% CAGR through 2027:PLTR Projected Revenue Growth % (TIKR.com)Recession Concerns: Moreover, given that it appears that we are headed for a recession, it is entirely possible that PLTR may face some stiff growth headwinds moving forward. This is because in an economic downturn, companies often scale back on new and unproven technologies in order to cut costs and maximize short-term profitability during challenging economic periods.Moreover, given the massive government deficits facing the United States and many of its allies right now, if tax revenues take a hit during a recession, it is very possible that they may cut back on nonessential spending across their departments. This poses a risk to Palantir, as its big data solutions, while valuable, may not be perceived as critical to near-term profitability and operations, resulting in delayed and/or reduced spending on Palantir's services by current and prospective clients.Investor TakeawayWhile PLTR is clearly a prominent player in the AI and big data analytics space for both government and commercial enterprises, the current valuation is just too rich in our view. The stock will need to dramatically accelerate the growth rate of its government and international segments while sustaining its commercial growth rate and/or find a way to improve its economies of scale significantly in order to justify the lofty expectations being placed on it by Mr. Market. The elevated level of interest rates and growing risks of a recession further exacerbate the valuation issue at PLTR.The company is clearly doing fine fundamentally and continues to generate consistent profitability for shareholders, which is a very good thing. However, until the valuation picture improves considerably, we remain bearish on the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":205637944512752,"gmtCreate":1691213994893,"gmtModify":1691214578217,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am holding and not selling till price hit above $100.","listText":"I am holding and not selling till price hit above $100.","text":"I am holding and not selling till price hit above $100.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205637944512752","repostId":"1148120126","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148120126","pubTimestamp":1691202311,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148120126?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-08-05 10:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock: 3 Reasons To Sell Before Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148120126","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir Technologies stock has been boosted by the company's pivot towards sustainable profitability and the hype around AI.However, we think that PLTR is a sell ahead of its Q2 earnings relea","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3954608796\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Palantir Technologies stock has been boosted by the company&#39;s pivot towards sustainable profitability and the hype around AI.</p></li><li><p>However, we think that PLTR is a sell ahead of its Q2 earnings release.</p></li><li><p>We share three reasons why.</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Palantir Technologies stock (NYSE: PLTR) has been on a phenomenal run this year, boosted by the company&#39;s pivot towards sustainable GAAP profitability and the market mania surrounding artificial intelligence.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7947556bd3da84634dcf7fcea06a5b\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This run-up has taken us by surprise, given that the stock has continued to soar higher since we last <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616513-aip-drive-demand-growth-to-justify-palantir-valuation?hasComeFromMpArticle=true&amp;source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link\" title=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4616513-aip-drive-demand-growth-to-justify-palantir-valuation\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"paywall-full-content\">covered</a> the stock. In that article, we rated PLTR a Sell, because - while we believe that the AI wave will contribute to PLTR&#39;s growth - it is unlikely to justify its current valuation. Therefore, it is an extremely speculative buy for investors with only the most optimistic expectations for AI-driven growth for PLTR.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While sentiment seems to be exceptionally strong surrounding PLTR stock and many other artificial intelligence stocks right now, we think that investors would be prudent to lock in gains ahead of next week&#39;s earnings report. We believe that it is important to point out that this upcoming earnings report could very possibly be a negative catalyst for the stock as management will likely need to deliver robust growth results or at least offer more concrete guidance numbers on how artificial intelligence will drive significant growth acceleration for PLTR moving forward. We think this will be very difficult for them to do for the following reasons:</p><ol><li><p>The growth of the Foundry (commercial) platform will face headwinds from companies that are facing growing pressures to cut costs in the face of a tight labor market, persistent core inflation, and a slowing economy</p></li><li><p>The growth of the Gotham (government) platform will be difficult to forecast over a short time frame as management has previously stated that government spending on PLTR&#39;s products is very lumpy with unpredictable timing due to the budget-setting and contract awarding process in government agencies.</p></li></ol><p style=\"text-align: left;\">With this potential upcoming negative catalyst in mind, here are three reasons why we think this earnings report will be disappointing:</p><h2 id=\"id_794193800\" style=\"text-align: left;\">#1. PLTR&#39;s Growth Rate Has Been Decelerating</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The biggest reason to be pessimistic of PLTR going into Q2 earnings is that - while the stock price and the hype surrounding the company&#39;s artificial intelligence capabilities seems to be pointing towards rapid growth moving forward - revenues have actually been decelerating. This point is largely reflective of the point we just made about management likely being unable to give the market clear guidance on how artificial intelligence will re-accelerate their revenue growth in the near future.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As the chart below illustrates, since the company went public, its revenue growth rate has declined every single year, with particularly precipitous declines felt in 2022:</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99812d6cb62ccee63a0622313bd7a363\" alt=\"PLTR Stock\" title=\"PLTR Stock\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span>PLTR Stock</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>PLTR Revenue Growth Rates (TIKR.com)</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This dramatic deceleration of growth has prompted management to drop all talk of its original guidance for $4 billion plus in 2025 revenue. Instead, Wall Street analyst consensus is forecasting less than $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue despite still predicting that revenue growth will reaccelerate in 2024 and 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While management is certainly making every effort to hype up its artificial intelligence credentials and capabilities, it is yet to be determined just how much of a boost this will provide to growth. Yes, management has provided anecdotes about a spike in artificial intelligence related growth, stating in a recent interview:</p><blockquote><em>Our customer base is large and - usually we have to go to find people - now we have customers, especially the U.S., just calling us everyday...we have been getting the number of inbound calls that we usually get in a year, in like a month. Then when we are at a conference, there are customers showing potential customers how to use our products.</em></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, it has yet to quantify what this growth looks like on the cash flow statement. If artificial intelligence was truly such a powerful growth tailwind, why hasn&#39;t management provided any updates on its short to medium term revenue growth outlook? Perhaps this will come out on the Q2 earnings call, but until they release this outlook, buying PLTR stock at lofty prices based on the assumption that as-of-yet unquantified growth will come pouring in is a highly speculative investment.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On top of that, PLTR has even admitted that its international business is struggling mightily:</p><blockquote><em>We have America, which is growing around 28%, it is now 64% of our business. Four years ago it was 37% of our business. We are absolutely disrupting in the U.S. of A. International is growing around 10% and that is becoming obviously a smaller part of our business.</em></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">However, while management claims that the international business - which still occupies a substantial 36% of the business - is growing at around 10%, in Q1 the international commercial business shrank by 7% sequentially and the international government business saw its revenue decline by a whopping 13% sequentially. With over one third of the business struggling to grow, the headline revenue growth rate decelerating for several years running now, management apparently abandoning previous 2025 revenue guidance, and no quantifiable data being provided on what sort of growth tailwind will come from PLTR&#39;s artificial intelligence platform, PLTR looks like its valuation is standing on very shaky ground heading into Q2 earnings.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This likely disconnect between management hype/market sentiment and the disappointing reality of the fundamentals was highlighted in a recent investor note by Monness, Crespi, Hardt&#39;s analyst Brian White, who stated:</p><blockquote><em>We believe the near-term fundamental realities by those promulgating the AI dream will fail to satisfy the market&#39;s voracious appetite.</em></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3528156312\" style=\"text-align: left;\">#2. PLTR Has Yet To Develop Significant Economies Of Scale</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Another reason to remain highly skeptical of PLTR&#39;s long-term value proposition at its current valuation is that it has struggled to develop significant economies of scale over time. We do not expect Q2 to change this narrative given that their business model has not fundamentally changed and likely will not for some time, if ever.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As the chart below illustrates, PLTR has had pretty choppy EBITDA and net income margins since going public in 2020 despite its revenue more than doubling over that period and the company placing an increased emphasis on profitability:</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b6b5f1300c5098ce3c4ee3efbe279d5\" alt=\"PLTR Stock\" title=\"PLTR Stock\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span>PLTR Stock</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>PLTR Profit Margins (TIKR.com)</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">What that tells me is that PLTR is struggling to unlock meaningful economies of scale. If PLTR were a true software company, it would be seeing its profit margins expand rapidly with scale as once the software is developed, the business becomes extremely capital light and cash generative.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This has led many to question whether or not PLTR is truly a software company and instead view it as more of a hybrid software-consulting firm. While PLTR sells software licenses to generate its revenue, it has considerable consulting services embedded in that license agreement. Given the labor-intensive nature of these consulting services, profit margins remain pretty fixed even as the company scales. The reason these consulting services are so needed is because PLTR&#39;s platforms need to be custom-tailored to fit client needs, requiring considerable expertise and effort from PLTR&#39;s engineers.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Until PLTR can figure out how to make its model less labor-intensive and can begin to increase its profit margins more meaningfully as it grows, PLTR&#39;s intrinsic value growth will be fairly limited.</p><h2 id=\"id_3258485885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">#3. PLTR Stock Is Way Overvalued</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Last, but not least, PLTR&#39;s valuation multiples are incredibly rich right now. On a forward basis, it trades at a P/E ratio of 82.66x, its EV/EBITDA multiple is an incredibly high 66.92x, and its EV/Revenues is 17.23x. If PLTR was enjoying strong economies of scale and seeing its profit margins rapidly expanding with growing revenue, these multiples would make more sense. However, it is simply not doing this. Analysts expect revenue to grow at a 23.7% CAGR through 2027 and they expect normalized earnings per share to grow at a virtually identical 23.6% CAGR through 2027.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Even if PLTR can achieve analyst consensus estimates of $0.50 in earnings per share in 2027, it would still be priced at 38x 2027 earnings if its share price remained constant with where it is today. Keep in mind that earnings per share is expected to be growing at ~20% at that point, making this look like a pretty reasonable assumption of a fair value multiple at that point. That means that there is a very real possibility that PLTR will not generate any total returns over the next three and a half years. The risk-reward profile does not look attractive at all at these prices, with a lot needing to go right for PLTR to generate even close to decently attractive total returns moving forward.</p><h2 id=\"id_1655068901\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">PLTR has been one of the market&#39;s biggest winners this year and appears to have incredible stock price momentum to soar ever higher. However, when taking our eyes off of the scoreboard and looking at the playing field, the long-term outlook looks far less exciting. Yes, PLTR is growing at a solid clip. However, its topline revenue growth has been decelerating since it went public in 2020, its economies of scale are very weak, its international business actually shrunk last quarter and is experiencing anemic growth overall, management has yet to provide quantifiable guidance for how artificial intelligence is going to reaccelerate their revenue growth and seems to have abandoned their original 2025 revenue guidance, and the stock&#39;s valuation multiples appear to be way too high compared to analyst consensus estimates and the business&#39; recent growth rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">PLTR is definitely an innovative company with strength in a hot, fast-growing industry and could therefore certainly see an explosion of growth moving forward. However, at the current valuation and given its recent performance track record, the risks seem to greatly outweigh the potential rewards heading into Q2 earnings. As a result, we rate it a Sell.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock: 3 Reasons To Sell Before Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock: 3 Reasons To Sell Before Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-05 10:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4623798-palantir-stock-3-reasons-to-sell-before-earnings><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir Technologies stock has been boosted by the company's pivot towards sustainable profitability and the hype around AI.However, we think that PLTR is a sell ahead of its Q2 earnings ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4623798-palantir-stock-3-reasons-to-sell-before-earnings\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4623798-palantir-stock-3-reasons-to-sell-before-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1148120126","content_text":"SummaryPalantir Technologies stock has been boosted by the company's pivot towards sustainable profitability and the hype around AI.However, we think that PLTR is a sell ahead of its Q2 earnings release.We share three reasons why.Palantir Technologies stock (NYSE: PLTR) has been on a phenomenal run this year, boosted by the company's pivot towards sustainable GAAP profitability and the market mania surrounding artificial intelligence.ChartData by YChartsThis run-up has taken us by surprise, given that the stock has continued to soar higher since we last covered the stock. In that article, we rated PLTR a Sell, because - while we believe that the AI wave will contribute to PLTR's growth - it is unlikely to justify its current valuation. Therefore, it is an extremely speculative buy for investors with only the most optimistic expectations for AI-driven growth for PLTR.While sentiment seems to be exceptionally strong surrounding PLTR stock and many other artificial intelligence stocks right now, we think that investors would be prudent to lock in gains ahead of next week's earnings report. We believe that it is important to point out that this upcoming earnings report could very possibly be a negative catalyst for the stock as management will likely need to deliver robust growth results or at least offer more concrete guidance numbers on how artificial intelligence will drive significant growth acceleration for PLTR moving forward. We think this will be very difficult for them to do for the following reasons:The growth of the Foundry (commercial) platform will face headwinds from companies that are facing growing pressures to cut costs in the face of a tight labor market, persistent core inflation, and a slowing economyThe growth of the Gotham (government) platform will be difficult to forecast over a short time frame as management has previously stated that government spending on PLTR's products is very lumpy with unpredictable timing due to the budget-setting and contract awarding process in government agencies.With this potential upcoming negative catalyst in mind, here are three reasons why we think this earnings report will be disappointing:#1. PLTR's Growth Rate Has Been DeceleratingThe biggest reason to be pessimistic of PLTR going into Q2 earnings is that - while the stock price and the hype surrounding the company's artificial intelligence capabilities seems to be pointing towards rapid growth moving forward - revenues have actually been decelerating. This point is largely reflective of the point we just made about management likely being unable to give the market clear guidance on how artificial intelligence will re-accelerate their revenue growth in the near future.As the chart below illustrates, since the company went public, its revenue growth rate has declined every single year, with particularly precipitous declines felt in 2022:PLTR StockPLTR Revenue Growth Rates (TIKR.com)This dramatic deceleration of growth has prompted management to drop all talk of its original guidance for $4 billion plus in 2025 revenue. Instead, Wall Street analyst consensus is forecasting less than $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue despite still predicting that revenue growth will reaccelerate in 2024 and 2025.While management is certainly making every effort to hype up its artificial intelligence credentials and capabilities, it is yet to be determined just how much of a boost this will provide to growth. Yes, management has provided anecdotes about a spike in artificial intelligence related growth, stating in a recent interview:Our customer base is large and - usually we have to go to find people - now we have customers, especially the U.S., just calling us everyday...we have been getting the number of inbound calls that we usually get in a year, in like a month. Then when we are at a conference, there are customers showing potential customers how to use our products.However, it has yet to quantify what this growth looks like on the cash flow statement. If artificial intelligence was truly such a powerful growth tailwind, why hasn't management provided any updates on its short to medium term revenue growth outlook? Perhaps this will come out on the Q2 earnings call, but until they release this outlook, buying PLTR stock at lofty prices based on the assumption that as-of-yet unquantified growth will come pouring in is a highly speculative investment.On top of that, PLTR has even admitted that its international business is struggling mightily:We have America, which is growing around 28%, it is now 64% of our business. Four years ago it was 37% of our business. We are absolutely disrupting in the U.S. of A. International is growing around 10% and that is becoming obviously a smaller part of our business.However, while management claims that the international business - which still occupies a substantial 36% of the business - is growing at around 10%, in Q1 the international commercial business shrank by 7% sequentially and the international government business saw its revenue decline by a whopping 13% sequentially. With over one third of the business struggling to grow, the headline revenue growth rate decelerating for several years running now, management apparently abandoning previous 2025 revenue guidance, and no quantifiable data being provided on what sort of growth tailwind will come from PLTR's artificial intelligence platform, PLTR looks like its valuation is standing on very shaky ground heading into Q2 earnings.This likely disconnect between management hype/market sentiment and the disappointing reality of the fundamentals was highlighted in a recent investor note by Monness, Crespi, Hardt's analyst Brian White, who stated:We believe the near-term fundamental realities by those promulgating the AI dream will fail to satisfy the market's voracious appetite.#2. PLTR Has Yet To Develop Significant Economies Of ScaleAnother reason to remain highly skeptical of PLTR's long-term value proposition at its current valuation is that it has struggled to develop significant economies of scale over time. We do not expect Q2 to change this narrative given that their business model has not fundamentally changed and likely will not for some time, if ever.As the chart below illustrates, PLTR has had pretty choppy EBITDA and net income margins since going public in 2020 despite its revenue more than doubling over that period and the company placing an increased emphasis on profitability:PLTR StockPLTR Profit Margins (TIKR.com)What that tells me is that PLTR is struggling to unlock meaningful economies of scale. If PLTR were a true software company, it would be seeing its profit margins expand rapidly with scale as once the software is developed, the business becomes extremely capital light and cash generative.This has led many to question whether or not PLTR is truly a software company and instead view it as more of a hybrid software-consulting firm. While PLTR sells software licenses to generate its revenue, it has considerable consulting services embedded in that license agreement. Given the labor-intensive nature of these consulting services, profit margins remain pretty fixed even as the company scales. The reason these consulting services are so needed is because PLTR's platforms need to be custom-tailored to fit client needs, requiring considerable expertise and effort from PLTR's engineers.Until PLTR can figure out how to make its model less labor-intensive and can begin to increase its profit margins more meaningfully as it grows, PLTR's intrinsic value growth will be fairly limited.#3. PLTR Stock Is Way OvervaluedLast, but not least, PLTR's valuation multiples are incredibly rich right now. On a forward basis, it trades at a P/E ratio of 82.66x, its EV/EBITDA multiple is an incredibly high 66.92x, and its EV/Revenues is 17.23x. If PLTR was enjoying strong economies of scale and seeing its profit margins rapidly expanding with growing revenue, these multiples would make more sense. However, it is simply not doing this. Analysts expect revenue to grow at a 23.7% CAGR through 2027 and they expect normalized earnings per share to grow at a virtually identical 23.6% CAGR through 2027.Even if PLTR can achieve analyst consensus estimates of $0.50 in earnings per share in 2027, it would still be priced at 38x 2027 earnings if its share price remained constant with where it is today. Keep in mind that earnings per share is expected to be growing at ~20% at that point, making this look like a pretty reasonable assumption of a fair value multiple at that point. That means that there is a very real possibility that PLTR will not generate any total returns over the next three and a half years. The risk-reward profile does not look attractive at all at these prices, with a lot needing to go right for PLTR to generate even close to decently attractive total returns moving forward.Investor TakeawayPLTR has been one of the market's biggest winners this year and appears to have incredible stock price momentum to soar ever higher. However, when taking our eyes off of the scoreboard and looking at the playing field, the long-term outlook looks far less exciting. Yes, PLTR is growing at a solid clip. However, its topline revenue growth has been decelerating since it went public in 2020, its economies of scale are very weak, its international business actually shrunk last quarter and is experiencing anemic growth overall, management has yet to provide quantifiable guidance for how artificial intelligence is going to reaccelerate their revenue growth and seems to have abandoned their original 2025 revenue guidance, and the stock's valuation multiples appear to be way too high compared to analyst consensus estimates and the business' recent growth rates.PLTR is definitely an innovative company with strength in a hot, fast-growing industry and could therefore certainly see an explosion of growth moving forward. However, at the current valuation and given its recent performance track record, the risks seem to greatly outweigh the potential rewards heading into Q2 earnings. As a result, we rate it a Sell.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970417847,"gmtCreate":1684816013790,"gmtModify":1684817899447,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"writer pls share what's your portfolio size on Tesla?&nbsp;","listText":"writer pls share what's your portfolio size on Tesla?&nbsp;","text":"writer pls share what's your portfolio size on Tesla?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970417847","repostId":"2337622107","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2337622107","pubTimestamp":1684798085,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2337622107?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-23 07:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Sell Signals Confirmed (Technical Analysis, Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2337622107","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"As the electric vehicle (\"EV\") battle heats up and the pawns take on the king, in this case the auto","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e6eef20058b6f3e1b90fc3390b88ea4\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>As the electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) battle heats up and the pawns take on the king, in this case the auto industry taking on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), we can expect TSLA&#39;s growth and profitability to suffer. That means that TSLA&#39;s P/E and PEG likely will come down. The way that is accomplished is by a falling price for TSLA stock. That is exactly what is happening, as you can see on the chart below.</p><p>Tesla is in a bear market looking for a bottom, not unlike the overall market, as represented by SPDR® S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). The overvaluation of the mega-cap stocks that move the SPY higher continues. When the recession comes, these overvalued stocks should drop to the levels of last October, if not lower, especially TSLA with a Beta of 2. You can see the SPY breakout on the chart below, and we think this is the last hurrah for the October bounce. When the SPY turns down, it should take TSLA with it.</p><p>Everyone knows the growth cycle. The new company is growing like crazy and then the competition comes alive. The growth begins to slow, especially as the company becomes larger and larger. Finally it morphs from growth to value, a blue chip paying dividends. TSLA has moved from being aggressive growth to slower growth, but with a long runway still ahead of it. The only problem with that picture is that it is overvalued and price has to come down. Then there was the dumping of stock on the market so Elon could buy Twitter. Increased supply brings price down. Plus, institutional ownership of TSLA stock is a very low 44%.</p><p>All of this is well known by the market and can be seen in price trends. The short, intermediate, and long-term price trends are down and price is continuing a downward movement. You can see this on the chart below. The 200-day moving average, long-term trend is down. So is the intermediate 50-day trend and the short term 20-day trend moving average. TSLA is underperforming the market, and portfolio managers are dumping it because it is hurting their performance. You cannot beat the Index by holding underperforming stocks. However, bottom fishers do buy underperforming stocks like TSLA if the price is low enough.</p><p>Now, if TSLA could beat all the competition and maintain its aggressive growth in the future, that would change the downtrends. If its earnings revisions improved dramatically, that would change the downtrends. However, the market right now does not see that happening for TSLA and that is why price continues to drop. Great company, great profits, ahead of the competition, but how long will that last in such a competitive industry? TSLA is going to lose market share and the market is trying to compute how fast that is going to happen and how to value TSLA stock accordingly. Right now it thinks the price is too high. The charts show price dropping for that reason.</p><p>In our previous article, we showed the downtrends and the sell signal after earnings. When price gapped down after earnings, the bargain hunters came in and took the price back up, filling the gap down. This is classical technical movement of price. TSLA is in a downtrend, but it is not going to dive to the bottom. It is moving down in a very orderly manner to the next support level and then bouncing as the bargain hunters come in again. Then it goes down lower than before, forming the classical lower-high and lower-low in price until it finally hits bottom.</p><p>You can see the last bottom was $102 and you can see price moving in a slow, and orderly manner, back down to retest that price. As noted above, any improvement in growth, earnings revisions and profit margins would change the outcome. We don&#39;t think that happens. We see the growing competition taking market share from TSLA. The competition has shown that they are willing to lose money to catch up with TSLA.</p><p>Technically, we look for bounces in prices to change our Sell Signals. In the case of TSLA, we can see that the current bounce has not changed our Sell Signal, which uses both technicals and fundamentals. When this happens on a bounce, that becomes a confirmation of the Sell Signal and we expect the stock to move lower. That is what you can see on this weekly chart below:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4ff653f9f3ba4cd18dd5631fbee0fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"884\"/></p><p>TSLA bounce fails to change sell signals. (stockcharts.com)</p><p></p><p>Meanwhile the market has recently helped the TSLA stock price, along with the Musk interview. As you can see on the SPY chart below, there is a positive breakout above $420. This was caused by positive, no-default talk, but on Friday negotiations broke down and the SPY dropped below $420 looking for support at $415. On Sunday, Biden was on TV about negotiations and in touch with McCarthy.</p><p>Here is the daily SPY chart, and it still is holding on to our vertical, blue line buy signal. That could change with further bad news on the debt ceiling negotiations.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52f9df72b2ae7c46d56ee78d1efbb69\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"784\"/></p><p>SPY drops on debt ceiling news (stockcharts.com)</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Sell Signals Confirmed (Technical Analysis, Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Sell Signals Confirmed (Technical Analysis, Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-23 07:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606449-tesla-sell-signals-confirmed-technical-analysis-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the electric vehicle (\"EV\") battle heats up and the pawns take on the king, in this case the auto industry taking on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), we can expect TSLA's growth and profitability to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606449-tesla-sell-signals-confirmed-technical-analysis-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","BK4555":"新能源车","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606449-tesla-sell-signals-confirmed-technical-analysis-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2337622107","content_text":"As the electric vehicle (\"EV\") battle heats up and the pawns take on the king, in this case the auto industry taking on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), we can expect TSLA's growth and profitability to suffer. That means that TSLA's P/E and PEG likely will come down. The way that is accomplished is by a falling price for TSLA stock. That is exactly what is happening, as you can see on the chart below.Tesla is in a bear market looking for a bottom, not unlike the overall market, as represented by SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). The overvaluation of the mega-cap stocks that move the SPY higher continues. When the recession comes, these overvalued stocks should drop to the levels of last October, if not lower, especially TSLA with a Beta of 2. You can see the SPY breakout on the chart below, and we think this is the last hurrah for the October bounce. When the SPY turns down, it should take TSLA with it.Everyone knows the growth cycle. The new company is growing like crazy and then the competition comes alive. The growth begins to slow, especially as the company becomes larger and larger. Finally it morphs from growth to value, a blue chip paying dividends. TSLA has moved from being aggressive growth to slower growth, but with a long runway still ahead of it. The only problem with that picture is that it is overvalued and price has to come down. Then there was the dumping of stock on the market so Elon could buy Twitter. Increased supply brings price down. Plus, institutional ownership of TSLA stock is a very low 44%.All of this is well known by the market and can be seen in price trends. The short, intermediate, and long-term price trends are down and price is continuing a downward movement. You can see this on the chart below. The 200-day moving average, long-term trend is down. So is the intermediate 50-day trend and the short term 20-day trend moving average. TSLA is underperforming the market, and portfolio managers are dumping it because it is hurting their performance. You cannot beat the Index by holding underperforming stocks. However, bottom fishers do buy underperforming stocks like TSLA if the price is low enough.Now, if TSLA could beat all the competition and maintain its aggressive growth in the future, that would change the downtrends. If its earnings revisions improved dramatically, that would change the downtrends. However, the market right now does not see that happening for TSLA and that is why price continues to drop. Great company, great profits, ahead of the competition, but how long will that last in such a competitive industry? TSLA is going to lose market share and the market is trying to compute how fast that is going to happen and how to value TSLA stock accordingly. Right now it thinks the price is too high. The charts show price dropping for that reason.In our previous article, we showed the downtrends and the sell signal after earnings. When price gapped down after earnings, the bargain hunters came in and took the price back up, filling the gap down. This is classical technical movement of price. TSLA is in a downtrend, but it is not going to dive to the bottom. It is moving down in a very orderly manner to the next support level and then bouncing as the bargain hunters come in again. Then it goes down lower than before, forming the classical lower-high and lower-low in price until it finally hits bottom.You can see the last bottom was $102 and you can see price moving in a slow, and orderly manner, back down to retest that price. As noted above, any improvement in growth, earnings revisions and profit margins would change the outcome. We don't think that happens. We see the growing competition taking market share from TSLA. The competition has shown that they are willing to lose money to catch up with TSLA.Technically, we look for bounces in prices to change our Sell Signals. In the case of TSLA, we can see that the current bounce has not changed our Sell Signal, which uses both technicals and fundamentals. When this happens on a bounce, that becomes a confirmation of the Sell Signal and we expect the stock to move lower. That is what you can see on this weekly chart below:TSLA bounce fails to change sell signals. (stockcharts.com)Meanwhile the market has recently helped the TSLA stock price, along with the Musk interview. As you can see on the SPY chart below, there is a positive breakout above $420. This was caused by positive, no-default talk, but on Friday negotiations broke down and the SPY dropped below $420 looking for support at $415. On Sunday, Biden was on TV about negotiations and in touch with McCarthy.Here is the daily SPY chart, and it still is holding on to our vertical, blue line buy signal. That could change with further bad news on the debt ceiling negotiations.SPY drops on debt ceiling news (stockcharts.com)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944791632,"gmtCreate":1682084272827,"gmtModify":1682084749226,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>$145","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>$145","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $145","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944791632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":353214810652792,"gmtCreate":1727241236434,"gmtModify":1727241240177,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good try, mate! I am holding.&nbsp;","listText":"Good try, mate! I am holding.&nbsp;","text":"Good try, mate! I am holding.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353214810652792","repostId":"1150917086","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150917086","pubTimestamp":1727236526,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150917086?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-25 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Insiders Are Selling, And So Am I","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150917086","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummarySince my last report on PLTR, Palantir's stock has surged by ~35% to $37 per share, catalyzed by multiple partnership announcements, AIPCon event, and inclusion into the S&P 500.Despite Palantir's robust business momentum, its valuation is detached from financial realities, as seen through a reverse DCF model in this note.Insiders are selling aggressively, and I am trimming again. Read on to learn why!Looking for a helping hand in the market?While swathes of investors are chomping at the ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3740539871\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Since my last report on PLTR, Palantir&#39;s stock has surged by ~35% to $37 per share, catalyzed by multiple partnership announcements, AIPCon event, and inclusion into the S&amp;P 500.</p></li><li><p>Despite Palantir&#39;s robust business momentum, its valuation is detached from financial realities, as seen through a reverse DCF model in this note.</p></li><li><p>Insiders are selling aggressively, and I am trimming again. Read on to learn why!</p></li><li><p>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Quantamental Investor get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1790837128\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Introduction</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In early August, I downgraded Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) to a tactical &#34;Sell&#34; rating after yet another post-ER pop:</p><blockquote><p><em>As of Q2, Palantir&#39;s business momentum is robust, with the AI/data enterprise software company delivering a solid mix of revenue growth and profitability. While I am impressed with Palantir&#39;s quarterly business performance and management&#39;s forward outlook, PLTR&#39;s valuation is detached from the financial realities of the business. Based on its 5-year expected CAGR return, Palantir stock is virtually dead money.</em></p><p><strong><em>Key Takeaway:</em></strong><em> Due to unfavorable long-term risk/reward, I am downgrading Palantir Technologies Inc. stock to a tactical &#34;Sell&#34; at $27.7 per share.</em></p></blockquote><p>Since the publication of this report, Palantir stock has shot up by ~35% to $37 per share, with bidding up PLTR stock from ~25x P/S to ~36x P/S on the back of exciting partnership announcements [like Microsoft, BP], Palantir&#39;s AIPCon event, and yesterday&#39;s inclusion to the S&amp;P 500 (SPX)(SPY).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da2dc88b6b3cb0f57f42e146e39d76c1\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p>Given Palantir&#39;s bullish price action, trimming in the $20s looks like a mistake. However, at TQI, we invest and divest based on long-term risk/reward and do so in a staggered manner.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f4e6824a674543bde8f28ee2223fb94\" alt=\"Palantir Trade Activity (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)\" title=\"Palantir Trade Activity (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"/><span>Palantir Trade Activity (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf020a08ccfe438cab68f623d042112a\" alt=\"Current Palantir Position (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)\" title=\"Current Palantir Position (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>Current Palantir Position (TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth Portfolio)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2454cd980c7c997c386b9353acb1544d\" alt=\"TQI Chats\" title=\"TQI Chats\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"189\"/><span>TQI Chats</span></p><p>After trimming Palantir on three separate occasions this year, we have divested our principal investment in PLTR stock. While I have stuck with our plan of letting the house money ride since our last sale in early August, Palantir&#39;s current weight [2.84%] in our Moonshot Growth portfolio is well above our target allocation of 2%. And so, in light of PLTR&#39;s explosive run-up over the past month or so, I think it is time for a re-evaluation!</p><h2 id=\"id_2266121478\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Is Palantir&#39;s Trading Multiple Expansion Justified?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While swathes of investors are chomping at the bit to buy PLTR stock right now at an exorbitant ~36x P/S multiple, it wasn&#39;t long ago that PLTR was trading at just ~5-6x P/S, and at the time, few buyers were to be found.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a7f5e52aa8d154a702a23bd415a4c3b\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Chart</span></p><h3 id=\"id_736216749\" style=\"text-align: left;\">So, what&#39;s changed?</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Well, for starters, Palantir has re-accelerated top-line growth in recent quarters [driven by Palantir AIP-led hypergrowth in US Commercial revenues] and turned into a free cash flow generating machine!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/97754c076efca04b6521a4e311642600\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p>And, with Palantir AIP [artificial intelligence platform] rapidly gaining traction among large enterprise customers, consensus revenue and earnings expectations for Palantir have been climbing higher, as evidenced by these broadly positive quarterly revision trends.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d8cafc46e7f49f03a9412e84722a1e09\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Earnings Forecasts\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Earnings Forecasts\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Earnings Forecasts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ded52d7271912c011ecadd08cea44556\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Revenue Forecasts\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Revenue Forecasts\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s Quarterly Revenue Forecasts</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As I shared in my Q2 review, Palantir is showing robust momentum from a business standpoint. Today, Palantir is one of the few recognizable early winners in the AI era. As such, investors are willing to pay 36x sales for the data/AI/ML company. However, valuations are inherently subjective. While financial metrics like revenue, profit, and growth rates provide objective data, their interpretation and weight in determining a company&#39;s worth vary significantly. Factors such as market trends, industry competition, potential future earnings, and even investors&#39; personal preferences can influence how a company is valued at any given point in time.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In my view, the efficient market hypothesis is a fallacy, as stocks could easily get detached from their intrinsic values and stay at elevated or depressed levels for long periods of time.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/972037d82629b842a156b8e15ddcdb3a\" alt=\"Palantir&#39;s Annual Revenue Forecasts\" title=\"Palantir&#39;s Annual Revenue Forecasts\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"/><span>Palantir&#39;s Annual Revenue Forecasts</span></p><p>Despite Palantir&#39;s robust margin profile, its trading multiple is out of whack with forward growth estimates [5-year expected CAGR sales growth: ~20%]. Let&#39;s visualize this through a reverse DCF model.</p><h2 id=\"id_3381752563\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Palantir Reverse DCF Model</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">For this exercise, I modeled PLTR with a 2024E revenue base of $2.76B [up from $2.75B] and assumed an optimized FCF margin of 35% [significantly higher than current margins]. All other assumptions are straightforward and self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8441e739850be681d71391f4c23ec14\" alt=\"TQI Valuation Model TQI Valuation Model\" title=\"TQI Valuation Model TQI Valuation Model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"573\"/><span>TQI Valuation Model TQI Valuation Model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to this reverse DCF model result, the market is currently pricing a 5-year CAGR sales growth rate of 50.68% into Palantir&#39;s stock!</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">With consensus analyst estimates suggesting a 5-year CAGR sales growth rate of ~20%, there&#39;s a spectacular mismatch between business realities (as measured by several Wall Street analysts) and market pricing of PLTR stock.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Now, can all analysts be wrong? Sure, forward analyst estimates can be wrong for Palantir or any stock out there. However, a 36x P/S and 126x P/FCF multiple is rare, and Palantir isn&#39;t quite delivering hypergrowth [growing at ~27% y/y] to justify such outrageous valuation multiples.</p><h2 id=\"id_3873715439\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Insiders Get It And Are Selling Aggressively</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Palantir&#39;s dynamic CEO, Alex Karp, seemingly never fails to hype up Palantir&#39;s business prospects during media appearances and earnings conference calls. However, he just sold ~8.7M PLTR shares worth over $300M under a 10b5-1 trading plan soon after exercising stock options.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1a3ebc2141740da0fe5ab4c41be5e196\" alt=\"Palantir Insider selling\" title=\"Palantir Insider selling\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"551\"/><span>Palantir Insider selling</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">And Karp isn&#39;t alone. Palantir&#39;s co-founder and legendary tech investor - Peter Thiel - recently filed a new 10b5-1 trading plan to sell up to 28.5M PLTR shares (worth up to ~$1B) in the near future!</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But, AI, AI, AI?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Look, Palantir is a great company, and its AI potential is real. However, current market pricing for PLTR stock is irrationally exuberant. Palantir insiders understand this reality and are selling aggressively.</p><h2 id=\"id_3839645096\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Concluding Thoughts</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Recent S&amp;P 500 index inclusions like Uber (UBER) have showcased active investors&#39; affinity to front-run passive index investors - boosting stock prices (and consequently, valuation multiples) ahead of index inclusion dates and then selling into forced buying from rules-based indexers.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In my view, a good chunk of Palantir&#39;s latest leg up is a result of this dynamic!</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d8859609fe3a8959adadbe3f38c7cad\" alt=\"Author, TrendSpider\" title=\"Author, TrendSpider\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\"/><span>Author, TrendSpider</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">From a technical standpoint, Palantir is enjoying strong price momentum right now; however, with weekly RSI in overbought territory (&gt;70) and PLTR&#39;s price diverging from RSI, a corrective pullback could be just around the corner, especially now that Palantir&#39;s inclusion into the S&amp;P 500 index is completed.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Based on reasonable assumptions for future growth [5-year CAGR sales growth: 25%] and margins [FCF margin: 35%], TQI&#39;s fair value estimate for Palantir stands at $15.33 per share.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25671b630b966bd6c10d93685badec5e\" alt=\"TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)\" title=\"TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"575\"/><span>TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Given its recent run-up from $27 to $37 per share, Palantir&#39;s potential downside to our fair value estimate has increased from -45% at our previous assessment to -59%!</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Now, as I have said in the past, we shouldn&#39;t dismiss the idea of investing in Palantir solely due to its premium valuation, as history shows that winning stocks can be overvalued for long periods [e.g., Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), etc.]. So, let&#39;s take a look at Palantir&#39;s long-term risk/reward to formulate an informed decision:</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Assuming an aggressive exit multiple of 25x P/FCF, I see Palantir stock declining from $37 to $32.5 per share at a CAGR rate of -2.7% by 2029.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/95857aa50ede9e240b66004f8f560556\" alt=\"TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)\" title=\"TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span>TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Despite modeling Palantir with above-consensus assumptions, the expected 5-year CAGR return for PLTR stock is abysmal. In fact, with a negative expected 5-year CAGR return, Palantir looks worse than dead money.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As we saw in this note, Palantir insiders are selling right now, and I think it is for a good reason. While I am open to continuously re-evaluating Palantir over coming months and quarters as new financial information comes to light, at this point, I continue to view PLTR stock as a tactical &#34;Sell&#34; and we will trim our PLTR long position again at TQI over the next few days.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> Due to unfavorable long-term risk/reward, I continue to rate Palantir Technologies Inc. stock a tactical &#34;Sell&#34; at $37 per share.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Insiders Are Selling, And So Am I</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Insiders Are Selling, And So Am I\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-25 11:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722770-palantir-insiders-are-selling-and-so-am-i><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySince my last report on PLTR, Palantir's stock has surged by ~35% to $37 per share, catalyzed by multiple partnership announcements, AIPCon event, and inclusion into the S&P 500.Despite ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722770-palantir-insiders-are-selling-and-so-am-i\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722770-palantir-insiders-are-selling-and-so-am-i","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1150917086","content_text":"SummarySince my last report on PLTR, Palantir's stock has surged by ~35% to $37 per share, catalyzed by multiple partnership announcements, AIPCon event, and inclusion into the S&P 500.Despite Palantir's robust business momentum, its valuation is detached from financial realities, as seen through a reverse DCF model in this note.Insiders are selling aggressively, and I am trimming again. Read on to learn why!Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Quantamental Investor get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.IntroductionIn early August, I downgraded Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) to a tactical \"Sell\" rating after yet another post-ER pop:As of Q2, Palantir's business momentum is robust, with the AI/data enterprise software company delivering a solid mix of revenue growth and profitability. While I am impressed with Palantir's quarterly business performance and management's forward outlook, PLTR's valuation is detached from the financial realities of the business. Based on its 5-year expected CAGR return, Palantir stock is virtually dead money.Key Takeaway: Due to unfavorable long-term risk/reward, I am downgrading Palantir Technologies Inc. stock to a tactical \"Sell\" at $27.7 per share.Since the publication of this report, Palantir stock has shot up by ~35% to $37 per share, with bidding up PLTR stock from ~25x P/S to ~36x P/S on the back of exciting partnership announcements [like Microsoft, BP], Palantir's AIPCon event, and yesterday's inclusion to the S&P 500 (SPX)(SPY).ChartGiven Palantir's bullish price action, trimming in the $20s looks like a mistake. However, at TQI, we invest and divest based on long-term risk/reward and do so in a staggered manner.Palantir Trade Activity (TQI's Moonshot Growth Portfolio)Current Palantir Position (TQI's Moonshot Growth Portfolio)TQI ChatsAfter trimming Palantir on three separate occasions this year, we have divested our principal investment in PLTR stock. While I have stuck with our plan of letting the house money ride since our last sale in early August, Palantir's current weight [2.84%] in our Moonshot Growth portfolio is well above our target allocation of 2%. And so, in light of PLTR's explosive run-up over the past month or so, I think it is time for a re-evaluation!Is Palantir's Trading Multiple Expansion Justified?While swathes of investors are chomping at the bit to buy PLTR stock right now at an exorbitant ~36x P/S multiple, it wasn't long ago that PLTR was trading at just ~5-6x P/S, and at the time, few buyers were to be found.ChartSo, what's changed?Well, for starters, Palantir has re-accelerated top-line growth in recent quarters [driven by Palantir AIP-led hypergrowth in US Commercial revenues] and turned into a free cash flow generating machine!ChartAnd, with Palantir AIP [artificial intelligence platform] rapidly gaining traction among large enterprise customers, consensus revenue and earnings expectations for Palantir have been climbing higher, as evidenced by these broadly positive quarterly revision trends.Palantir's Quarterly Earnings ForecastsPalantir's Quarterly Revenue ForecastsAs I shared in my Q2 review, Palantir is showing robust momentum from a business standpoint. Today, Palantir is one of the few recognizable early winners in the AI era. As such, investors are willing to pay 36x sales for the data/AI/ML company. However, valuations are inherently subjective. While financial metrics like revenue, profit, and growth rates provide objective data, their interpretation and weight in determining a company's worth vary significantly. Factors such as market trends, industry competition, potential future earnings, and even investors' personal preferences can influence how a company is valued at any given point in time.In my view, the efficient market hypothesis is a fallacy, as stocks could easily get detached from their intrinsic values and stay at elevated or depressed levels for long periods of time.Palantir's Annual Revenue ForecastsDespite Palantir's robust margin profile, its trading multiple is out of whack with forward growth estimates [5-year expected CAGR sales growth: ~20%]. Let's visualize this through a reverse DCF model.Palantir Reverse DCF ModelFor this exercise, I modeled PLTR with a 2024E revenue base of $2.76B [up from $2.75B] and assumed an optimized FCF margin of 35% [significantly higher than current margins]. All other assumptions are straightforward and self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.TQI Valuation Model TQI Valuation ModelAccording to this reverse DCF model result, the market is currently pricing a 5-year CAGR sales growth rate of 50.68% into Palantir's stock!With consensus analyst estimates suggesting a 5-year CAGR sales growth rate of ~20%, there's a spectacular mismatch between business realities (as measured by several Wall Street analysts) and market pricing of PLTR stock.Now, can all analysts be wrong? Sure, forward analyst estimates can be wrong for Palantir or any stock out there. However, a 36x P/S and 126x P/FCF multiple is rare, and Palantir isn't quite delivering hypergrowth [growing at ~27% y/y] to justify such outrageous valuation multiples.Insiders Get It And Are Selling AggressivelyPalantir's dynamic CEO, Alex Karp, seemingly never fails to hype up Palantir's business prospects during media appearances and earnings conference calls. However, he just sold ~8.7M PLTR shares worth over $300M under a 10b5-1 trading plan soon after exercising stock options.Palantir Insider sellingAnd Karp isn't alone. Palantir's co-founder and legendary tech investor - Peter Thiel - recently filed a new 10b5-1 trading plan to sell up to 28.5M PLTR shares (worth up to ~$1B) in the near future!But, AI, AI, AI?Look, Palantir is a great company, and its AI potential is real. However, current market pricing for PLTR stock is irrationally exuberant. Palantir insiders understand this reality and are selling aggressively.Concluding ThoughtsRecent S&P 500 index inclusions like Uber (UBER) have showcased active investors' affinity to front-run passive index investors - boosting stock prices (and consequently, valuation multiples) ahead of index inclusion dates and then selling into forced buying from rules-based indexers.In my view, a good chunk of Palantir's latest leg up is a result of this dynamic!Author, TrendSpiderFrom a technical standpoint, Palantir is enjoying strong price momentum right now; however, with weekly RSI in overbought territory (>70) and PLTR's price diverging from RSI, a corrective pullback could be just around the corner, especially now that Palantir's inclusion into the S&P 500 index is completed.Based on reasonable assumptions for future growth [5-year CAGR sales growth: 25%] and margins [FCF margin: 35%], TQI's fair value estimate for Palantir stands at $15.33 per share.TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)Given its recent run-up from $27 to $37 per share, Palantir's potential downside to our fair value estimate has increased from -45% at our previous assessment to -59%!Now, as I have said in the past, we shouldn't dismiss the idea of investing in Palantir solely due to its premium valuation, as history shows that winning stocks can be overvalued for long periods [e.g., Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), etc.]. So, let's take a look at Palantir's long-term risk/reward to formulate an informed decision:Assuming an aggressive exit multiple of 25x P/FCF, I see Palantir stock declining from $37 to $32.5 per share at a CAGR rate of -2.7% by 2029.TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)Despite modeling Palantir with above-consensus assumptions, the expected 5-year CAGR return for PLTR stock is abysmal. In fact, with a negative expected 5-year CAGR return, Palantir looks worse than dead money.As we saw in this note, Palantir insiders are selling right now, and I think it is for a good reason. While I am open to continuously re-evaluating Palantir over coming months and quarters as new financial information comes to light, at this point, I continue to view PLTR stock as a tactical \"Sell\" and we will trim our PLTR long position again at TQI over the next few days.Key Takeaway: Due to unfavorable long-term risk/reward, I continue to rate Palantir Technologies Inc. stock a tactical \"Sell\" at $37 per share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":205637944512752,"gmtCreate":1691213994893,"gmtModify":1691214578217,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am holding and not selling till price hit above $100.","listText":"I am holding and not selling till price hit above $100.","text":"I am holding and not selling till price hit above $100.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205637944512752","repostId":"1148120126","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351572694929512,"gmtCreate":1726871836430,"gmtModify":1726871840558,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good try mate&nbsp;","listText":"Good try mate&nbsp;","text":"Good try mate","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351572694929512","repostId":"2468521616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2468521616","pubTimestamp":1726845666,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2468521616?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-20 23:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Palantir's CEO Unloads Shares: A Telling Inflection Point","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2468521616","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More Investment ThesisPalantir  is today a crowd favorite. It has amassed an amazing army of devoted investors.And yet, its captain has just unloaded about 10% of his holding. Does this inspire belief in the company?In time the stock moved higher and higher, but its path was so volatile, that it ensured that nearly nobody would have held on to PLTR. Indeed, I recognize that the majority of investors onl","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2026190940\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Inflection investing is challenging and often involves making unpopular decisions that others may not understand.</p></li><li><p>Recommending a stock can be unpopular because it involves seeing potential others can&#39;t.</p></li><li><p>Alex Karp selling 10% of his stake raises concerns for me; when the captain jumps ship, it often signals rough waters ahead.</p></li><li><p>At 54x forward free cash flow, Palantir is no longer undervalued, and my strategy demands I rotate capital into more favorable opportunities.</p></li><li><p>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_891944106\">Investment Thesis</h2><p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) is today a crowd favorite. It has amassed an amazing army of devoted investors.</p><p>And yet, its captain has just unloaded about 10% of his holding. Does this inspire belief in the company? Or does it further nuance to what was already a highly contentious stock?</p><p>Having previously been a strong proponent of PLTR, I explain why Deep Value Returns recently sold out of PLTR, as I believed that paying more than 50x next year&#39;s free cash flow didn&#39;t make enough sense to me.</p><h2 id=\"id_3596142902\">Rapid Recap</h2><p>I recommended Palantir to subscribers of Deep Value Returns at $10 per share.</p><p>I also subsequently posted this on SA, in November 2023:</p><blockquote><p><em>For detractors of the stock, they&#39;ll be quick to remark that stock-based compensation, or SBC, continues to be excessive. However, I don&#39;t believe investors at this point mind. Why?</em></p><p><em>Not only is this element already priced in, but the fact that Palantir is already GAAP profitable largely does away with this bearish concern.</em></p><p><em>Altogether, I continue to declare that I believe this is a good time to buy Palantir, as the stock continues to demonstrate clear end-customer diversification as well as meaningful growth opportunities.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b10ba20aa66b2cd7ca6f341d4c016951\" alt=\"Author&#39;s work on PLTR\" title=\"Author&#39;s work on PLTR\" tg-width=\"324\" tg-height=\"415\"/><span>Author&#39;s work on PLTR</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Author&#39;s work on PLTR</strong></p></blockquote><p>Allow me to explain, <em>Inflection investing</em> is a lonely road. You are always making unpopular decisions.</p><p><em>You are unpopular when you recommend the stock because you see what others can&#39;t. You are unpopular when you sell the stock because you can&#39;t see what others do.</em></p><p>The return is made in the middle because hero investors end up as zero investors.</p><p>The moment I recommended PLTR, it fell from $10 to $7 per share. Naturally, my timing sucked. It was such an unpopular recommendation!</p><p>In time the stock moved higher and higher, but its path was so volatile, that it ensured that nearly nobody would have held on to PLTR. Indeed, I recognize that the majority of investors only invest with stop losses, and since PLTR was so volatile, I do not believe that anyone managed to make even 50% of what I made here.</p><p>But this makes sense, investing is difficult. Here&#39;s the thing, inflection investing succeeds best when I&#39;m making unpopular decisions.</p><h2 id=\"id_559688580\">Latest Development; Captain Starts To Sail Off</h2><p>SA reports there&#39;s a 10 million block sale by an unnamed person. Meanwhile, from my understanding, I can only see 9 million shares being sold from Alex Karp and a substantially smaller figure from Lauren Friedman.</p><p>Not quite sure where that 1 million shares came from that SA reports, but I don&#39;t believe that matters all that much at this point, for our discussion.</p><p>Meanwhile, in the interest of balance, I want to remark something that many investors will have forgotten.</p><p>If you zoom in on the table below, you&#39;ll see that Alex Karp has somewhere around 90 million shares. Hence, this sale is for around <em>10% of his holding</em>.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cba14728922433bdc14e698ff48b39ec\" alt=\"SEC filing; proxy statement\" title=\"SEC filing; proxy statement\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"/><span>SEC filing; proxy statement</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>SEC filing; proxy statement</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Consequently, I wouldn&#39;t be too quick to read into the headlines that everything has changed from management&#39;s perspective, despite a couple of insiders selling out of PLTR.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nevertheless, I wish to explain why I sold my ownership of PLTR.</p><h2 id=\"id_4058245110\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Why I Sold Palantir</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Palantir&#39;s Q2 2024 did not increase its free cash flow guidance beyond the midpoint of $900 million. However, given that its topline is now expected to increase so significantly compared with its earlier guidance, I now believe it <em>makes more sense to embrace Palantir&#39;s high end of its free cash flow guidance.</em> Hence, we should expect approximately $1 billion of free cash flow from Palantir in 2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Moreover, as we look out to 2025, given Palantir&#39;s increased scale, together with its strong growth rates, I believe that Palantir&#39;s free cash flow could reach $1.5 billion in 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This means that Palantir is being priced at approximately 54x next year&#39;s free cash flow. This doesn&#39;t strike me as all that expensive, for what it offers. Indeed, I could quite easily make the argument that there&#39;s still more upside potential here.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But at the same time, I don&#39;t want to be complacent. I know that the market is brutal. And it&#39;s very important to stick with my inflection investing strategy. As such, you can never rest on your laurels. You have to always be moving capital around, keeping only names that are extremely undervalued in the portfolio.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">For those interested, I deployed my capital into Peloton (PTON). And you may contend that PTON has nothing in common with the almighty PLTR. Did I simply misspell PLTR? Jesting aside, I believe that Palantir&#39;s risk-reward isn&#39;t all that compelling right now.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yes, it&#39;s not completely shocking to pay 54x forward free cash flow for Palantir. I continue to believe that its prospects are very interesting over the long term. But as an Inflection investor, I must always be thinking about investing as a game of odds. Of risk versus reward. Am I being sufficiently compensated for the potential reward? And I don&#39;t believe I am.</p><h2 id=\"id_2665484222\" style=\"text-align: left;\">The Bottom Line</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As an inflection investor, my strategy revolves around making difficult, often contrarian, decisions at key moments of change in a company&#39;s narrative.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I make moves when others are either overly enthusiastic or too pessimistic, always seeking value where it is hidden.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Palantir has been an exciting journey, but the fact that its CEO, Alex Karp, sold 10% of his stake should raise questions from its shareholders.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While some might view this sale as insignificant, it signals to me that even the captain may not be fully confident in the ship&#39;s future course. Combined with the high valuation and the uncertainties ahead, this diminishes the investment&#39;s appeal.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In investing, it&#39;s important to know when to hold &#39;em and when to fold &#39;em - and right now, the odds for Palantir just aren&#39;t stacked in my favor. In short, I&#39;d rather be ahead of the curve than left behind on a sinking ship!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir's CEO Unloads Shares: A Telling Inflection Point</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir's CEO Unloads Shares: A Telling Inflection Point\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-20 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722246-palantir-stock-ceo-unloads-telling-inflection-point-downgrade-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryInflection investing is challenging and often involves making unpopular decisions that others may not understand.Recommending a stock can be unpopular because it involves seeing potential ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722246-palantir-stock-ceo-unloads-telling-inflection-point-downgrade-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4023":"应用软件"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722246-palantir-stock-ceo-unloads-telling-inflection-point-downgrade-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2468521616","content_text":"SummaryInflection investing is challenging and often involves making unpopular decisions that others may not understand.Recommending a stock can be unpopular because it involves seeing potential others can't.Alex Karp selling 10% of his stake raises concerns for me; when the captain jumps ship, it often signals rough waters ahead.At 54x forward free cash flow, Palantir is no longer undervalued, and my strategy demands I rotate capital into more favorable opportunities.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »Investment ThesisPalantir (NYSE:PLTR) is today a crowd favorite. It has amassed an amazing army of devoted investors.And yet, its captain has just unloaded about 10% of his holding. Does this inspire belief in the company? Or does it further nuance to what was already a highly contentious stock?Having previously been a strong proponent of PLTR, I explain why Deep Value Returns recently sold out of PLTR, as I believed that paying more than 50x next year's free cash flow didn't make enough sense to me.Rapid RecapI recommended Palantir to subscribers of Deep Value Returns at $10 per share.I also subsequently posted this on SA, in November 2023:For detractors of the stock, they'll be quick to remark that stock-based compensation, or SBC, continues to be excessive. However, I don't believe investors at this point mind. Why?Not only is this element already priced in, but the fact that Palantir is already GAAP profitable largely does away with this bearish concern.Altogether, I continue to declare that I believe this is a good time to buy Palantir, as the stock continues to demonstrate clear end-customer diversification as well as meaningful growth opportunities.Author's work on PLTRAuthor's work on PLTRAllow me to explain, Inflection investing is a lonely road. You are always making unpopular decisions.You are unpopular when you recommend the stock because you see what others can't. You are unpopular when you sell the stock because you can't see what others do.The return is made in the middle because hero investors end up as zero investors.The moment I recommended PLTR, it fell from $10 to $7 per share. Naturally, my timing sucked. It was such an unpopular recommendation!In time the stock moved higher and higher, but its path was so volatile, that it ensured that nearly nobody would have held on to PLTR. Indeed, I recognize that the majority of investors only invest with stop losses, and since PLTR was so volatile, I do not believe that anyone managed to make even 50% of what I made here.But this makes sense, investing is difficult. Here's the thing, inflection investing succeeds best when I'm making unpopular decisions.Latest Development; Captain Starts To Sail OffSA reports there's a 10 million block sale by an unnamed person. Meanwhile, from my understanding, I can only see 9 million shares being sold from Alex Karp and a substantially smaller figure from Lauren Friedman.Not quite sure where that 1 million shares came from that SA reports, but I don't believe that matters all that much at this point, for our discussion.Meanwhile, in the interest of balance, I want to remark something that many investors will have forgotten.If you zoom in on the table below, you'll see that Alex Karp has somewhere around 90 million shares. Hence, this sale is for around 10% of his holding.SEC filing; proxy statementSEC filing; proxy statementConsequently, I wouldn't be too quick to read into the headlines that everything has changed from management's perspective, despite a couple of insiders selling out of PLTR.Nevertheless, I wish to explain why I sold my ownership of PLTR.Why I Sold PalantirPalantir's Q2 2024 did not increase its free cash flow guidance beyond the midpoint of $900 million. However, given that its topline is now expected to increase so significantly compared with its earlier guidance, I now believe it makes more sense to embrace Palantir's high end of its free cash flow guidance. Hence, we should expect approximately $1 billion of free cash flow from Palantir in 2024.Moreover, as we look out to 2025, given Palantir's increased scale, together with its strong growth rates, I believe that Palantir's free cash flow could reach $1.5 billion in 2025.This means that Palantir is being priced at approximately 54x next year's free cash flow. This doesn't strike me as all that expensive, for what it offers. Indeed, I could quite easily make the argument that there's still more upside potential here.But at the same time, I don't want to be complacent. I know that the market is brutal. And it's very important to stick with my inflection investing strategy. As such, you can never rest on your laurels. You have to always be moving capital around, keeping only names that are extremely undervalued in the portfolio.For those interested, I deployed my capital into Peloton (PTON). And you may contend that PTON has nothing in common with the almighty PLTR. Did I simply misspell PLTR? Jesting aside, I believe that Palantir's risk-reward isn't all that compelling right now.Yes, it's not completely shocking to pay 54x forward free cash flow for Palantir. I continue to believe that its prospects are very interesting over the long term. But as an Inflection investor, I must always be thinking about investing as a game of odds. Of risk versus reward. Am I being sufficiently compensated for the potential reward? And I don't believe I am.The Bottom LineAs an inflection investor, my strategy revolves around making difficult, often contrarian, decisions at key moments of change in a company's narrative.I make moves when others are either overly enthusiastic or too pessimistic, always seeking value where it is hidden.Palantir has been an exciting journey, but the fact that its CEO, Alex Karp, sold 10% of his stake should raise questions from its shareholders.While some might view this sale as insignificant, it signals to me that even the captain may not be fully confident in the ship's future course. Combined with the high valuation and the uncertainties ahead, this diminishes the investment's appeal.In investing, it's important to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em - and right now, the odds for Palantir just aren't stacked in my favor. In short, I'd rather be ahead of the curve than left behind on a sinking ship!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":242017585340488,"gmtCreate":1700123510555,"gmtModify":1700123724137,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"noted but I am holding","listText":"noted but I am holding","text":"noted but I am holding","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/242017585340488","repostId":"2383696718","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2383696718","pubTimestamp":1700122345,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2383696718?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-11-16 16:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock: Look Out Below","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2383696718","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir Technologies Inc. recently released its Q3 results, showing impressive growth in revenue and international business.The company also achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters,","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> recently released its Q3 results, showing impressive growth in revenue and international business.</p></li><li><p>The company also achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters, proving its sustainable business model.</p></li><li><p>However, there are three big reasons why we are bearish on the stock.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053e8f7209660fc698c584f5fa3a944e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) recently released its latest quarterly results, and the market largely cheered the results as the stock has soared higher since the results came out. That being said, we remain firmly bearish on the stock and share in this article why we are reiterating our Sell rating.</p><h2 id=\"id_2886967972\">PLTR Stock Q3 Positives</h2><p>While we are overall negative on the stock, we do believe that the company itself is fundamentally healthy and is accomplishing some really good things. For example, PLTR has demonstrated impressive growth recently in several key areas of its business. Their overall revenue grew by 16.8% year-over-year during the quarter, reaching $558 million, which surpassed analyst consensus expectations. Perhaps the most impressive number from the report was that they grew their international business by 15% to a total revenue of $134 million. Given that this had been an area of significant struggle for the company recently, an acceleration of growth to a mid-teens rate is quite notable and could bode well for the company if they can continue to accelerate that growth rate moving forward.</p><p>Moreover, the remarkable 33% year-over-year growth in PLTR&#39;s U.S. commercial revenue showed the staying power of PLTR&#39;s most dynamic business and demonstrates the company&#39;s ability to be a major data analytics and AI player for a broad array of clients, rather than being confined to strictly being a government/defense contractor. The tripling of users for PLTR&#39;s Artificial Intelligence Platform (&#34;AIP&#34;) demonstrates the company&#39;s growing influence in the AI sector and bodes well for continued strong commercial growth for quarters and years to come.</p><p>Perhaps most important of all is that the company has now achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters, proving that it can truly generate value for shareholders and has a sustainable business model instead of just chasing unprofitable topline growth financed by continuous equity issuance.</p><h2 id=\"id_785573460\">PLTR Stock Q3 Negatives</h2><p>However, there were also some negatives. Stock-based compensation expenses remain elevated and likely to increase in Q4, continuing to dilute shareholders in the process. While the company touted its buyback authorization on its Q2 earnings call, nothing was said about it on the Q3 earnings call, proving that it was purely a publicity stunt by management (much like its short-lived investment in gold bars was previously).</p><p>Moreover, government revenue only grew at a 10% year-over-year rate, continuing a recent trend of fairly slow government revenue growth. While the U.S. commercial business is posting very robust growth numbers, the slowdown in the government business is weighing on the company&#39;s overall growth performance and calling into question the ultimate total growth runway of the company. While the recent pickup in international growth is promising, it remains below the company&#39;s overall average growth rate and will need to pick up considerably for the company to achieve its full long-term potential. Additionally, the company&#39;s dependence on large deals to continue fueling growth and the potential for operational risks as Palantir rapidly expands its AI business are also areas of concern.</p><h2 id=\"id_3194736248\">Why PLTR Stock Is A Sell</h2><p>PLTR is clearly expanding its presence in commercial markets, achieving some improvement in international growth, leveraging and enhancing its AI capabilities, and achieving consistent profitability. That said, these strengths are ultimately not enough for us to upgrade the stock from being a Sell for the following reasons:</p><p><strong>Valuation:</strong> The stock trades at a very rich valuation right now, as the company&#39;s lack of execution on its buyback over the past quarter (despite the company having plenty of cash on its balance sheet and the stock price plummeting significantly during parts of the quarter) demonstrates. It currently trades at nearly 19 times its LTM revenue and nearly 16 times its NTM revenue. Moreover, it trades at over 52 times its NTM EBITDA, nearly 70 times its NTM normalized earnings, and over 81 times its NTM free cash flow (translating to an NTM free cash flow yield of just 1.2%). In an environment where 10-year treasury yields are nearly four times PLTR&#39;s free cash flow yield, it is pretty difficult to justify its current valuation multiple.</p><p>Additionally, while some may think that 16 times NTM revenue and 70 times NTM normalized earnings are not outrageous for a leading AI software company, the reality is that PLTR is not truly a software company. PLTR&#39;s business model has often been likened to being a hybrid between a software company and a consulting company due to its labor-intensiveness. As a result, it does not scale nearly as easily as a pure software-as-a-service or even an enterprise software business model. As a result, its profit margins have not been increasing as rapidly as one might expect relative to its strong rate of revenue growth. For example, over the next two years, its revenue is expected to grow at a 20.2% CAGR whereas its normalized earnings per share are only expected to grow at a 20.5% CAGR, reflecting a very slight expansion in its profit margin. As a result, its valuation multiples appear to be far too high relative to the bottom-line growth potential of the company.</p><p><strong>Decelerating Revenue Growth:</strong> Since PLTR went public, there has been a notable deceleration in Palantir&#39;s revenue growth, from nearly 50% to the mid-teens most recently. In fact, management has abandoned its original guidance for over $4 billion in 2025 revenue, and the company is now expected by the consensus of Wall Street analysts to generate only $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025 revenue. This deceleration could stem from several issues, including market saturation, increased competition, or a plateau in the adoption rate of Palantir&#39;s services. It appears that the market is counting on AI to accelerate PLTR&#39;s growth, but thus far there has not been much concrete evidence that this is happening in a meaningful way.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02a88ae7c557aa7f04f5d93e3f6b9bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>PLTR Recent Revenue Growth % (TIKR.com)</p><p></p><p>While analysts do seem to expect that AI will bolster PLTR&#39;s revenue growth rate, it is still only expected to grow its topline at a 23.7% CAGR through 2027:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50d93662bc87abdbf3093c1f2147e24e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>PLTR Projected Revenue Growth % (TIKR.com)</p><p></p><p><strong>Recession Concerns:</strong> Moreover, given that it appears that we are headed for a recession, it is entirely possible that PLTR may face some stiff growth headwinds moving forward. This is because in an economic downturn, companies often scale back on new and unproven technologies in order to cut costs and maximize short-term profitability during challenging economic periods.</p><p>Moreover, given the massive government deficits facing the United States and many of its allies right now, if tax revenues take a hit during a recession, it is very possible that they may cut back on nonessential spending across their departments. This poses a risk to Palantir, as its big data solutions, while valuable, may not be perceived as critical to near-term profitability and operations, resulting in delayed and/or reduced spending on Palantir&#39;s services by current and prospective clients.</p><h2 id=\"id_3986110713\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>While PLTR is clearly a prominent player in the AI and big data analytics space for both government and commercial enterprises, the current valuation is just too rich in our view. The stock will need to dramatically accelerate the growth rate of its government and international segments while sustaining its commercial growth rate and/or find a way to improve its economies of scale significantly in order to justify the lofty expectations being placed on it by Mr. Market. The elevated level of interest rates and growing risks of a recession further exacerbate the valuation issue at PLTR.</p><p>The company is clearly doing fine fundamentally and continues to generate consistent profitability for shareholders, which is a very good thing. However, until the valuation picture improves considerably, we remain bearish on the stock.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock: Look Out Below</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock: Look Out Below\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-16 16:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651946-palantir-stock-look-out-below><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir Technologies Inc. recently released its Q3 results, showing impressive growth in revenue and international business.The company also achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651946-palantir-stock-look-out-below\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4588":"碎股","BK4023":"应用软件"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4651946-palantir-stock-look-out-below","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2383696718","content_text":"Palantir Technologies Inc. recently released its Q3 results, showing impressive growth in revenue and international business.The company also achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters, proving its sustainable business model.However, there are three big reasons why we are bearish on the stock.Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) recently released its latest quarterly results, and the market largely cheered the results as the stock has soared higher since the results came out. That being said, we remain firmly bearish on the stock and share in this article why we are reiterating our Sell rating.PLTR Stock Q3 PositivesWhile we are overall negative on the stock, we do believe that the company itself is fundamentally healthy and is accomplishing some really good things. For example, PLTR has demonstrated impressive growth recently in several key areas of its business. Their overall revenue grew by 16.8% year-over-year during the quarter, reaching $558 million, which surpassed analyst consensus expectations. Perhaps the most impressive number from the report was that they grew their international business by 15% to a total revenue of $134 million. Given that this had been an area of significant struggle for the company recently, an acceleration of growth to a mid-teens rate is quite notable and could bode well for the company if they can continue to accelerate that growth rate moving forward.Moreover, the remarkable 33% year-over-year growth in PLTR's U.S. commercial revenue showed the staying power of PLTR's most dynamic business and demonstrates the company's ability to be a major data analytics and AI player for a broad array of clients, rather than being confined to strictly being a government/defense contractor. The tripling of users for PLTR's Artificial Intelligence Platform (\"AIP\") demonstrates the company's growing influence in the AI sector and bodes well for continued strong commercial growth for quarters and years to come.Perhaps most important of all is that the company has now achieved GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters, proving that it can truly generate value for shareholders and has a sustainable business model instead of just chasing unprofitable topline growth financed by continuous equity issuance.PLTR Stock Q3 NegativesHowever, there were also some negatives. Stock-based compensation expenses remain elevated and likely to increase in Q4, continuing to dilute shareholders in the process. While the company touted its buyback authorization on its Q2 earnings call, nothing was said about it on the Q3 earnings call, proving that it was purely a publicity stunt by management (much like its short-lived investment in gold bars was previously).Moreover, government revenue only grew at a 10% year-over-year rate, continuing a recent trend of fairly slow government revenue growth. While the U.S. commercial business is posting very robust growth numbers, the slowdown in the government business is weighing on the company's overall growth performance and calling into question the ultimate total growth runway of the company. While the recent pickup in international growth is promising, it remains below the company's overall average growth rate and will need to pick up considerably for the company to achieve its full long-term potential. Additionally, the company's dependence on large deals to continue fueling growth and the potential for operational risks as Palantir rapidly expands its AI business are also areas of concern.Why PLTR Stock Is A SellPLTR is clearly expanding its presence in commercial markets, achieving some improvement in international growth, leveraging and enhancing its AI capabilities, and achieving consistent profitability. That said, these strengths are ultimately not enough for us to upgrade the stock from being a Sell for the following reasons:Valuation: The stock trades at a very rich valuation right now, as the company's lack of execution on its buyback over the past quarter (despite the company having plenty of cash on its balance sheet and the stock price plummeting significantly during parts of the quarter) demonstrates. It currently trades at nearly 19 times its LTM revenue and nearly 16 times its NTM revenue. Moreover, it trades at over 52 times its NTM EBITDA, nearly 70 times its NTM normalized earnings, and over 81 times its NTM free cash flow (translating to an NTM free cash flow yield of just 1.2%). In an environment where 10-year treasury yields are nearly four times PLTR's free cash flow yield, it is pretty difficult to justify its current valuation multiple.Additionally, while some may think that 16 times NTM revenue and 70 times NTM normalized earnings are not outrageous for a leading AI software company, the reality is that PLTR is not truly a software company. PLTR's business model has often been likened to being a hybrid between a software company and a consulting company due to its labor-intensiveness. As a result, it does not scale nearly as easily as a pure software-as-a-service or even an enterprise software business model. As a result, its profit margins have not been increasing as rapidly as one might expect relative to its strong rate of revenue growth. For example, over the next two years, its revenue is expected to grow at a 20.2% CAGR whereas its normalized earnings per share are only expected to grow at a 20.5% CAGR, reflecting a very slight expansion in its profit margin. As a result, its valuation multiples appear to be far too high relative to the bottom-line growth potential of the company.Decelerating Revenue Growth: Since PLTR went public, there has been a notable deceleration in Palantir's revenue growth, from nearly 50% to the mid-teens most recently. In fact, management has abandoned its original guidance for over $4 billion in 2025 revenue, and the company is now expected by the consensus of Wall Street analysts to generate only $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025 revenue. This deceleration could stem from several issues, including market saturation, increased competition, or a plateau in the adoption rate of Palantir's services. It appears that the market is counting on AI to accelerate PLTR's growth, but thus far there has not been much concrete evidence that this is happening in a meaningful way.PLTR Recent Revenue Growth % (TIKR.com)While analysts do seem to expect that AI will bolster PLTR's revenue growth rate, it is still only expected to grow its topline at a 23.7% CAGR through 2027:PLTR Projected Revenue Growth % (TIKR.com)Recession Concerns: Moreover, given that it appears that we are headed for a recession, it is entirely possible that PLTR may face some stiff growth headwinds moving forward. This is because in an economic downturn, companies often scale back on new and unproven technologies in order to cut costs and maximize short-term profitability during challenging economic periods.Moreover, given the massive government deficits facing the United States and many of its allies right now, if tax revenues take a hit during a recession, it is very possible that they may cut back on nonessential spending across their departments. This poses a risk to Palantir, as its big data solutions, while valuable, may not be perceived as critical to near-term profitability and operations, resulting in delayed and/or reduced spending on Palantir's services by current and prospective clients.Investor TakeawayWhile PLTR is clearly a prominent player in the AI and big data analytics space for both government and commercial enterprises, the current valuation is just too rich in our view. The stock will need to dramatically accelerate the growth rate of its government and international segments while sustaining its commercial growth rate and/or find a way to improve its economies of scale significantly in order to justify the lofty expectations being placed on it by Mr. Market. The elevated level of interest rates and growing risks of a recession further exacerbate the valuation issue at PLTR.The company is clearly doing fine fundamentally and continues to generate consistent profitability for shareholders, which is a very good thing. However, until the valuation picture improves considerably, we remain bearish on the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944791632,"gmtCreate":1682084272827,"gmtModify":1682084749226,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>$145","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>$145","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $145","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944791632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970417847,"gmtCreate":1684816013790,"gmtModify":1684817899447,"author":{"id":"4098786699582620","authorId":"4098786699582620","authorIdStr":"4098786699582620","name":"Pertang","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887c0e9eeff5edfe6680237f089eccdb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098786699582620"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"writer pls share what's your portfolio size on Tesla?&nbsp;","listText":"writer pls share what's your portfolio size on Tesla?&nbsp;","text":"writer pls share what's your portfolio size on Tesla?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970417847","repostId":"2337622107","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}