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2024-01-16

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$

2022-09-17

[暗中观察]

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! Is rate hike 75 or 100 basis points? The dot plot is the focus.

07-05

[财迷]

2022-10-08

[暗中观察]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-09-28

[暗中观察]

Jobs' old capital has been eaten for 11 years: fattening Cook and thinning scalpers

2022-09-17

[呆住] [晕]

Last night and this morning | Bone-chilling cold! All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% for the week, with FedEx plunging 21%.

2022-09-15

[思考]

Large Options Orders | US Stock Options Trading Volume Surges! Bullish sentiment on Apple and Tesla has cooled slightly.

2022-09-14

[暗中观察]

Huge sums of money have been allocated in advance! Tonight's US CPI data will determine the fate of the market.

2022-09-09

[暗中观察]

Frontline interpretation! The European Central Bank's "largest rate hike in history"

2022-09-03

[捂脸]

Tiger Commentary: What state will the world enter with the G7's price cap on Russian crude oil?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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[handshakes]"},{"author":{"id":"4088837488367880","authorId":"4088837488367880","name":"Snow wwww","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6effde3b6dd8906e7dbf2faa91428dbb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4088837488367880","authorIdStr":"4088837488367880"},"content":"buy the dip will upto $40 [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","text":"buy the dip will upto $40 [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","html":"buy the dip will upto $40 [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926132366,"gmtCreate":1671491456056,"gmtModify":1676538544028,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926132366","repostId":"1178428509","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178428509","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671458435,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178428509?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-19 22:00","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Another defaulting emerging economy has emerged!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178428509","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"加纳政府宣布为了防止其经济、金融和社会状况进一步恶化，该国将暂停支付欧元债券、商业定期贷款和多数双边义务的债务。美联储加息，美元指数上升成了引发新兴市场债务风暴的“序曲”，斯里兰卡之后，加纳也不得不“","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Government of Ghana announced that, in order to prevent further deterioration of its economic, financial and social situation, the country would suspend payments on euro bonds, commercial term loans and most bilateral obligations. The rise of the Federal Reserve's rate hike and the US Dollar Index became the \"prelude\" to triggering a debt storm in emerging markets. Following Sri Lanka, Ghana was also forced to \"surrender,\" becoming another country this year to announce a suspension of bond payments.</p><p>On December 19, the Ghanaian government issued a statement saying it would suspend payments on euro bonds, commercial term loans, and most bilateral obligations.<b>The move was described as a temporary emergency measure pending further agreement with relevant creditors.</b>。 The statement noted:</p><p>The Government stands ready to engage in discussions with all external creditors for a fair, transparent and comprehensive debt restructuring exercise in line with international best practices to make Ghana's debt sustainable. The Ghanaian Ministry of Finance stated that<b>This is necessary in order to prevent further deterioration of the economic, financial and social situation in Ghana</b>。 Following the announcement, the country's eurobonds maturing in 2032 fell.</p><p>Media reports indicate that Ghana launched its domestic debt swap program on December 5 and announced on December 13 that it had reached a $3 billion staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF stated that a comprehensive debt restructuring is a condition of the deal and a key step in its unsustainable debt restructuring program.</p><p>Under the domestic debt swap, local government bonds will be exchanged for new bonds maturing in 2027, 2029, 2032, and 2037, with annual coupon rates set at 0% in 2023, 5% in 2024, and 10% from 2025 until maturity.</p><p>Ghana, which wears gold and diamonds, is in trouble.</p><p>Ghana was once considered a model of development in Africa. As a producer of cocoa, oil, gold, and diamonds, it was regarded as a rising star among emerging economies. It is said that wherever there is a river, gold and sand can be extracted, so it was called the \"Gold Coast\" for hundreds of years.</p><p>Media reports indicate that Ghana is currently burdened with approximately $55 billion in debt, which, according to recent government figures, is equivalent to 80% of the country's GDP. Earlier this summer, the rising cost of living sparked protests in the capital, Accra, and the government formally requested IMF support in July.</p><p>In late November, the Ghanaian government announced that all large gold mining companies must sell 20% of their refined gold to the country's central bank. The new policy was in line with the government's \"gold for oil\" plan, which aims to address the problem of dwindling foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>Ghana's Minister of Land and Natural Resources, Samuel Abdulai Jinapor, announced on social media that the new policy will take effect on January 1 next year. The government also ordered small miners to sell gold to state-owned precious metals companies.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that in the 12 months ending at the end of May this year alone,<b>Ghana's outstanding foreign debt increased from $24.6 billion to $28.4 billion, and foreign investment flowing into domestic debt also continued to increase. Only through larger net inflows will it be possible to repay these rising debts.</b></p><p>At the same time,<b>Ghana is struggling to curb the depreciation of its currency, the Serbian dinar, which has fallen by nearly 60% against the US dollar so far this year, making it one of the world's worst-performing currencies.</b></p><p>bankruptcy crisis</p><p>Ghana is in a debt crisis due to soaring debt costs.</p><p>Since the media reported on Ghana's local government debt restructuring plan in September,<b>Ghana's Eurobonds became one of the worst-performing bonds in emerging markets</b>During this period, investors suffered losses of nearly 12%.</p><p>Ghana’s deputy finance minister, Abena Osei Asare, said the country’s debt restructuring plan would replace existing terms and convert them into longer-term debt at lower interest rates. Previously, an analysis of debt sustainability showed that Ghana faced a high risk of default.</p><p>Fitch Ratings gave Ghana a CC rating, two notches above default rating; Standard & Poor's Global Ratings rated it CCC+, downgrading it to junk bond rating.</p><p>Moody's downgraded Ghana's credit rating by two notches to Ca, giving Ghana the same rating as Sri Lanka, which is in default.</p><p>Ghana's inflation rate also soared to 40.4% in October, sparking protests in many places. The public generally believes that<b>The Ghanaian government squandered IMF loans, only to be forced to join the government in paying off its debts.</b>。 Ghanaians are suffering from the rising cost of living and are demanding the president's resignation. In November, Ghana's inflation rate exceeded 50%, and media reports indicated that the government said it would use 70% to 100% of its revenue to pay debt interest.</p><p>Now, Ghanaian banks will also use \"bankruptcy restructuring\" to resolve their debt problems. On December 19, the Ghanaian government announced that it would suspend payments on European bonds, including those issued by Ghana. Commercial term payments in Ghana; As well as a large portion of Ghana's bilateral debt. The statement said:</p><p>This suspension will not include the payment of our multilateral debt, new debt (whether multilateral or otherwise) entered into after December 19, 2022, or debt related to certain short-term trade facilities. Richard Segal, a research analyst at Ambrosia Capital, said the announcement was “a bit surprising” because it<b>Reduces the possibility that the debt can be restructured through friendly negotiations.</b>Furthermore, funding from the International Monetary Fund will be available soon, and since the IMF agreement was announced, the price of Serbia has risen sharply. Segal says:</p><p>Although Ghana's foreign exchange reserves are declining, the market believes they are not at a critical level. In addition, funding from the International Monetary Fund will be available soon, and since the IMF agreement was announced, the price of Serbia has risen sharply. This announcement should not have a long-term impact, but it is clearly negative in the short term. According to the latest IMF report, approximately $237 billion in foreign debt in emerging markets is currently at risk of default. Meanwhile, the World Bank has warned that 25% of emerging markets are in or near debt distress, and more than 60% of low-income countries are facing debt distress. The sovereign debt of emerging market countries is mainly external debt, accounting for more than two-thirds of sovereign debt, and a large part of it is short-term debt. The high pressure and urgency of debt repayment are self-evident.</p><p>As the first country to go bankrupt this year, Sri Lanka's debt default has become a fact. Meanwhile, Argentina, a South American country that recently received IMF loan assistance, is also teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Turkey, with a severely excessive trade deficit, may sound the alarm of default at any time. In addition, more than ten emerging market countries, including Egypt, Pakistan, and Ukraine, are struggling in the debt quagmire.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Another defaulting emerging economy has emerged!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnother defaulting emerging economy has emerged!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-19 22:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Government of Ghana announced that, in order to prevent further deterioration of its economic, financial and social situation, the country would suspend payments on euro bonds, commercial term loans and most bilateral obligations. The rise of the Federal Reserve's rate hike and the US Dollar Index became the \"prelude\" to triggering a debt storm in emerging markets. Following Sri Lanka, Ghana was also forced to \"surrender,\" becoming another country this year to announce a suspension of bond payments.</p><p>On December 19, the Ghanaian government issued a statement saying it would suspend payments on euro bonds, commercial term loans, and most bilateral obligations.<b>The move was described as a temporary emergency measure pending further agreement with relevant creditors.</b>。 The statement noted:</p><p>The Government stands ready to engage in discussions with all external creditors for a fair, transparent and comprehensive debt restructuring exercise in line with international best practices to make Ghana's debt sustainable. The Ghanaian Ministry of Finance stated that<b>This is necessary in order to prevent further deterioration of the economic, financial and social situation in Ghana</b>。 Following the announcement, the country's eurobonds maturing in 2032 fell.</p><p>Media reports indicate that Ghana launched its domestic debt swap program on December 5 and announced on December 13 that it had reached a $3 billion staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF stated that a comprehensive debt restructuring is a condition of the deal and a key step in its unsustainable debt restructuring program.</p><p>Under the domestic debt swap, local government bonds will be exchanged for new bonds maturing in 2027, 2029, 2032, and 2037, with annual coupon rates set at 0% in 2023, 5% in 2024, and 10% from 2025 until maturity.</p><p>Ghana, which wears gold and diamonds, is in trouble.</p><p>Ghana was once considered a model of development in Africa. As a producer of cocoa, oil, gold, and diamonds, it was regarded as a rising star among emerging economies. It is said that wherever there is a river, gold and sand can be extracted, so it was called the \"Gold Coast\" for hundreds of years.</p><p>Media reports indicate that Ghana is currently burdened with approximately $55 billion in debt, which, according to recent government figures, is equivalent to 80% of the country's GDP. Earlier this summer, the rising cost of living sparked protests in the capital, Accra, and the government formally requested IMF support in July.</p><p>In late November, the Ghanaian government announced that all large gold mining companies must sell 20% of their refined gold to the country's central bank. The new policy was in line with the government's \"gold for oil\" plan, which aims to address the problem of dwindling foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>Ghana's Minister of Land and Natural Resources, Samuel Abdulai Jinapor, announced on social media that the new policy will take effect on January 1 next year. The government also ordered small miners to sell gold to state-owned precious metals companies.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that in the 12 months ending at the end of May this year alone,<b>Ghana's outstanding foreign debt increased from $24.6 billion to $28.4 billion, and foreign investment flowing into domestic debt also continued to increase. Only through larger net inflows will it be possible to repay these rising debts.</b></p><p>At the same time,<b>Ghana is struggling to curb the depreciation of its currency, the Serbian dinar, which has fallen by nearly 60% against the US dollar so far this year, making it one of the world's worst-performing currencies.</b></p><p>bankruptcy crisis</p><p>Ghana is in a debt crisis due to soaring debt costs.</p><p>Since the media reported on Ghana's local government debt restructuring plan in September,<b>Ghana's Eurobonds became one of the worst-performing bonds in emerging markets</b>During this period, investors suffered losses of nearly 12%.</p><p>Ghana’s deputy finance minister, Abena Osei Asare, said the country’s debt restructuring plan would replace existing terms and convert them into longer-term debt at lower interest rates. Previously, an analysis of debt sustainability showed that Ghana faced a high risk of default.</p><p>Fitch Ratings gave Ghana a CC rating, two notches above default rating; Standard & Poor's Global Ratings rated it CCC+, downgrading it to junk bond rating.</p><p>Moody's downgraded Ghana's credit rating by two notches to Ca, giving Ghana the same rating as Sri Lanka, which is in default.</p><p>Ghana's inflation rate also soared to 40.4% in October, sparking protests in many places. The public generally believes that<b>The Ghanaian government squandered IMF loans, only to be forced to join the government in paying off its debts.</b>。 Ghanaians are suffering from the rising cost of living and are demanding the president's resignation. In November, Ghana's inflation rate exceeded 50%, and media reports indicated that the government said it would use 70% to 100% of its revenue to pay debt interest.</p><p>Now, Ghanaian banks will also use \"bankruptcy restructuring\" to resolve their debt problems. On December 19, the Ghanaian government announced that it would suspend payments on European bonds, including those issued by Ghana. Commercial term payments in Ghana; As well as a large portion of Ghana's bilateral debt. The statement said:</p><p>This suspension will not include the payment of our multilateral debt, new debt (whether multilateral or otherwise) entered into after December 19, 2022, or debt related to certain short-term trade facilities. Richard Segal, a research analyst at Ambrosia Capital, said the announcement was “a bit surprising” because it<b>Reduces the possibility that the debt can be restructured through friendly negotiations.</b>Furthermore, funding from the International Monetary Fund will be available soon, and since the IMF agreement was announced, the price of Serbia has risen sharply. Segal says:</p><p>Although Ghana's foreign exchange reserves are declining, the market believes they are not at a critical level. In addition, funding from the International Monetary Fund will be available soon, and since the IMF agreement was announced, the price of Serbia has risen sharply. This announcement should not have a long-term impact, but it is clearly negative in the short term. According to the latest IMF report, approximately $237 billion in foreign debt in emerging markets is currently at risk of default. Meanwhile, the World Bank has warned that 25% of emerging markets are in or near debt distress, and more than 60% of low-income countries are facing debt distress. The sovereign debt of emerging market countries is mainly external debt, accounting for more than two-thirds of sovereign debt, and a large part of it is short-term debt. The high pressure and urgency of debt repayment are self-evident.</p><p>As the first country to go bankrupt this year, Sri Lanka's debt default has become a fact. Meanwhile, Argentina, a South American country that recently received IMF loan assistance, is also teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Turkey, with a severely excessive trade deficit, may sound the alarm of default at any time. In addition, more than ten emerging market countries, including Egypt, Pakistan, and Ukraine, are struggling in the debt quagmire.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677835\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be79c7c9207c536b3f6f378972b7dbf6","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677835","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178428509","content_text":"加纳政府宣布为了防止其经济、金融和社会状况进一步恶化，该国将暂停支付欧元债券、商业定期贷款和多数双边义务的债务。美联储加息，美元指数上升成了引发新兴市场债务风暴的“序曲”，斯里兰卡之后，加纳也不得不“缴械投降”，成了今年又一个宣布暂停支付各项债券的国家。12月19日，加纳政府发布声明称将暂停支付欧元债券、商业定期贷款和大多数双边义务的债务，称此举是一项临时紧急措施，有待与相关债权人达成进一步协议。 声明指出：政府随时准备与所有外部债权人进行讨论，以便根据国际最佳做法，进行公平、透明和全面的债务重组活动，使加纳的债务可以持续下去。加纳财政部表示，为了防止加纳的经济、金融和社会状况进一步恶化，此举是必要的。消息宣布后，该国2032年到期的欧元债券下跌。媒体报道称，加纳已于12月5日启动了国内债务交换计划，并于12月13日称，已与国际货币基金组织（IMF）达成了一项30亿美元的工作人员级协议。IMF表示，全面的债务重组是交易的一个条件，也是其不可持续债务重组计划的关键一步。在国内债务交换下，地方债券将换成2027年、2029年、2032年和2037年到期的新债券，其年息票利率将在2023年定为0%，2024年为5%，从2025年定为10%，直至到期。“穿金戴钻”的加纳陷入困境加纳曾被认为是非洲发展的典范，作为可可、石油、黄金、钻石的生产国，被视作新兴经济体中的后起之秀，据说有河流的地方就能掏出金沙，所以曾被 “黄金海岸”这个国名称呼了数百年。媒体报道称，加纳现在背负着约550亿美元的债务，据政府最近的数据统计，这一债务相当于该国GDP的80%。今年夏初，不断加剧的生活成本使首都阿克拉爆发了抗议活动，政府于7月正式请求IMF提供支持。11月底，加纳政府宣布，所有大型金矿企业必须将其20%的精炼黄金出售给该国央行，新的政策是为了配合政府“黄金换石油”的计划，旨在解决外汇储备不断减少的问题。加纳国土和自然资源部长Samuel Abdulai Jinapor在社交媒体上宣布，新政策将于明年1月1日起生效。政府还命令小型矿企将黄金出售给国有贵金属公司。华尔街见闻此前提及，仅在截至今年5月底的12个月期间，加纳的未偿还外债就从246亿美元增加到了284亿美元，外国投资流入国内债务的外汇也不断增加。只有通过更大规模的净流入，才有可能偿还这些不断上升的债务。同时，加纳正在努力遏制本币塞地的贬值，今年迄今，塞地兑美元汇率已经下跌了近60%，成为了世界上表现最差的货币之一。破产危机因不断飙升的债务成本，加纳陷入了债务困境。媒体9月份报道加纳的地方债务重组计划以来，加纳的欧洲债券成为了新兴市场中表现最差的债券之一，在此期间使投资者蒙受了近12%的损失。加纳财政部副部长 Abena Osei Asare 称，该国的债务重组计划将取代现有条款，并以更低的利率转换为期限更长的债务。此前，对债务可持续性的分析显示，加纳面临很高的违约风险。惠誉评级公司给加纳的评级为CC，比违约级高两个等级；而标普全球评级公司将其评为CCC+，跌入垃圾级债券评级。穆迪将加纳的信用评级下调了两个等级至Ca，加纳与处于违约状态的斯里兰卡为同一评级。加纳10月份的通货膨胀率也飙升至40.4%，引发了多地的民众抗议。民众普遍认为，加纳政府挥霍了IMF的贷款，自己却要被迫跟着政府一起还债。加纳人苦于生活成本上升，要求总统辞职。11月，加纳的通货膨胀率更是超过50%，媒体报道称，政府表示将70%至100%的收入用于支付债务利息。如今，加纳银行也将用“破产重组”法解决债务问题，12月19日，加纳政府宣布将暂停支付包括加纳的欧洲债券；加纳的商业定期货款；以及加纳很大一部分双边债务。声明称：此次暂停将不包括支付我们的多边债务、2022年12月19 日之后签订的新债务（无论是多边债务还是其他债务）或与某些短期贸易设施相关的债务。Ambrosia Capital 的研究分析师 Richard Segal 表示，该公告“有点令人惊讶 ”因为其降低了可以对债务进行友好协商后重组的可能性，且国际货币基金组织的资金很快就会到位，自从国际货币基金组织的协议宣布以来，塞地已经大幅上涨。 Segal说：虽然加纳的外汇储备在下降，但市场认为它们并未处于临界水平。此外，国际货币基金组织的资金很快就会到位，自从国际货币基金组织的协议宣布以来，塞地已经大幅上涨。这个通告不应该有长期影响，但短期内显然是负面的。按照IMF最新的报告估计，目前新兴市场有约2370亿美元的外债面临违约风险，同时，世界银行发出警告，25%的新兴市场正处于或接近债务困境，60%以上的低收入国家面临债务困境。新兴市场国家主权债务主要是对外负债，规模占比超过主权债务的2/3，并且很大一部分还是短期负债，偿债的高压力与紧迫性不言而喻。作为今年首个破产的国家，斯里兰卡的债务违约已成事实，同时，日前接受过IMF贷款援助的南美国家阿根廷也在破产的边缘徘徊，贸易赤字严重超标的土耳其随时可能拉响违约的警报，另外埃及、巴基斯坦、乌克兰等十余个新兴市场国家正在债务泥潭中挣扎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923438136,"gmtCreate":1670892400226,"gmtModify":1676538454351,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923438136","repostId":"2291731811","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2291731811","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670886813,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2291731811?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-13 07:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign Media Headlines | Economists Say More Inflation Expected in 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291731811","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　在2022年，消费者遭遇了40年来最严重的生活成本冲击，美联储通过大幅加息予以应对，令许多投资者受到了惊吓。进入2023年，美国的通胀路径可能还有更多意外在等待着投资者。　　美国定于周二发布11月消费者价格指数，也是2022年的最后一次通胀报告。预计该报告将显示，虽然通胀放缓，但仍然接近疫情前水平的三倍。不包括食品和能源的核心CPI预计连续第二个月环比上涨0.3%，同比则上涨6.1%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. Looking ahead to 2023, economists predict more inflationary surprises awaiting investors.</b><b>2. A New York Federal Reserve survey shows that inflation expectations for the coming year have fallen to their lowest level since 2021.</b><b>3. The Federal Reserve's long-term views diverge from Wall Street's; the market expects interest rates to decline rapidly in 2023.</b><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>They are pessimistic about the stock market next year, citing declining earnings as the biggest risk.</b><b>5. The UK property market is showing signs of weakness, with sellers' asking prices falling by the largest margin in four years.</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The company has reached a 10-year cooperation agreement with the London Stock Exchange Group and will acquire a 4% stake.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61c971c4a4dc1ba2ae217f831182572b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead to 2023, economists predict more inflationary surprises awaiting investors.</b></p><p>In 2022, consumers suffered the worst cost-of-living shock in 40 years, and the Federal Reserve responded with significant rate hike, which frightened many investors. Entering 2023, the path of U.S. inflation may have more surprises waiting for investors.</p><p>The United States is scheduled to release its November consumer price index on Tuesday, the last inflation report of 2022. The report is expected to show that while inflation has slowed, it is still close to three times pre-pandemic levels. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month for the second consecutive month and 6.1% year-on-year.</p><p>The report will reinforce the claim that inflation has peaked, said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC. However, \"in terms of the inflation outlook, we will experience some bumps at least in the coming months.\"</p><p>The trajectory of inflation next year will depend on whether the rise in core commodity prices slows further, when and how much rents cool, and the extent to which wage growth (especially in the service sector) slows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a819e720983e0b9e36caeade6f00b52b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A New York Federal Reserve survey shows that inflation expectations for the coming year have fallen to their lowest level since 2021.</b></p><p>According to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S. household inflation expectations for the coming year fell to their lowest level since August 2021 last month.</p><p>According to the monthly consumer expectations survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday, Americans' inflation expectations for the next 12 months were 5.2% in November, lower than the 5.7% forecast the previous month. Inflation expectations for the next three and five years have also declined.</p><p>With real inflation soaring to its highest level in four decades, Federal Reserve officials have been actively tightening monetary policy this year in an effort to curb inflation expectations. Investors and economists widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate above 4% on Wednesday for the first time since 2008.</p><p>The New York Federal Reserve's decline in consumer inflation expectations in November is consistent with official data released last month suggesting that price pressures may be beginning to ease. The consumer price index rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, the lowest since January.</p><p>The U.S. Department of Labor is scheduled to release November CPI data on Tuesday. Forecasters expect inflation to slow further to 7.3% in November. Households surveyed by the New York Fed believe that gasoline prices will rise by 4.7% in the coming year. Food prices are expected to rise by 8.3%, and rents are expected to rise by 9.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046537dd77ae466ed9a7de86c9e853f8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's long-term views diverge from Wall Street's, and the market expects interest rates to fall rapidly in 2023.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues disagreed with Wall Street on how long interest rates would remain high in 2023, with history on Powell's side.</p><p>After four consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points, marking the fastest pace of monetary policy tightening since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve may slow its pace on Wednesday and decide to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points.</p><p>The move, widely cited by officials, would raise the target range for interest rates to 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest level since 2007. Economists believe that Federal Reserve officials may also indicate that they will rate hike by another 50 basis points next year, and once that high is reached, they will keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2023.</p><p>Financial markets agree with the short-term vision, but expect interest rates to fall rapidly from their peak levels later next year. The reason for this conflict may be that investors expect price pressures to ease faster than the Federal Reserve anticipates, and the Fed, which has experienced a failure to predict \"temporary price pressures,\" is concerned that inflation may persist. This may also reflect that bets that the unemployment rate will rise will become a deeper concern for the Federal Reserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa82c6e6fb2e16b2eb0648ac2515703\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are pessimistic about the stock market next year, citing declining earnings as the biggest risk.</b></p><p>For many investors, this week's inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions may be top priorities. However, according to some of Wall Street's most prominent strategists, the prospect of future declining profits is the biggest concern for the stock market.</p><p>According to a report by Michael Wilson, strategist at Morgan Stanley (90.62, 1.15, 1.29%), and David Kostin, strategist at Goldman Sachs (360.15, 1.01, 0.28%), earnings may shrink more than expected in 2023 as profit margins come under pressure, putting the stock market in a difficult environment.</p><p>“The final chapter of this bear market is all about the path of earnings forecasts, which are too high right now,” Wilson wrote in a report on Monday. The consumer price index and the Federal Reserve meeting are already \"yesterday's news,\" wrote the strategist who ranked first in the latest institutional investor survey.</p><p>Both Wilson and Kostin believe that the stock market will have a tough start to 2023. In 2022, many major indices fell into a bear market before rebounding in the fourth quarter. So far, soaring inflation and rate hike have been the biggest concerns for investors, and this is likely to continue, at least in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36e5bbdc33833198a786c36165fccbc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The UK property market is showing signs of weakness, with sellers' asking prices falling by the largest margin in four years.</b></p><p>According to data from real estate website Rightmove Plc, sellers have lowered their asking prices by the most in four years after soaring interest rates in the UK made buyers hesitant.</p><p>Data from the website shows that the average asking price fell 2.1% in December to £359,137 ($440,980).</p><p>Rightmove stated that while sellers typically offer discounts in December to facilitate transactions before Christmas, this year's decline is greater than the same period in previous years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6599794916e6f679102b1351b80be60b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Microsoft and London Stock Exchange Group have reached a 10-year cooperation agreement and will acquire a 4% stake.</b></p><p>Microsoft (250.22, 4.80, 1.96%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LSE.UK\">London Stock Exchange</a>The Group has entered into a 10-year strategic partnership agreement for next-generation data and analytics and cloud infrastructure, and will acquire approximately 4% equity in the latter.</p><p>Microsoft announced on Monday that it will acquire Blackstone and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRI\">Thomson Reuters</a>The shares held by the consortium. Scott Guthrie, Microsoft's executive vice president of cloud and artificial intelligence, will be appointed as a director.</p><p>The announcement stated that the equity transaction is part of a broader 10-year partnership between the two parties; The collaboration will help the London Stock Exchange Group use Microsoft products to develop data and analytics and cloud infrastructure. The partnership is expected to see the London Stock Exchange Group invest between £250 million ($306 million) and £300 million between 2023 and 2025, including approximately £100 million in capital expenditure.</p><p>Microsoft can expect to earn approximately $2.8 billion in revenue from the London Stock Exchange Group over the entire life of the partnership, with further revenue depending on the success of the strategic partnership and the demand for the London Stock Exchange Group's data platform and professional services.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign Media Headlines | Economists Say More Inflation Expected in 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign Media Headlines | Economists Say More Inflation Expected in 2023\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-13 07:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. Looking ahead to 2023, economists predict more inflationary surprises awaiting investors.</b><b>2. A New York Federal Reserve survey shows that inflation expectations for the coming year have fallen to their lowest level since 2021.</b><b>3. The Federal Reserve's long-term views diverge from Wall Street's; the market expects interest rates to decline rapidly in 2023.</b><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>They are pessimistic about the stock market next year, citing declining earnings as the biggest risk.</b><b>5. The UK property market is showing signs of weakness, with sellers' asking prices falling by the largest margin in four years.</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The company has reached a 10-year cooperation agreement with the London Stock Exchange Group and will acquire a 4% stake.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61c971c4a4dc1ba2ae217f831182572b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead to 2023, economists predict more inflationary surprises awaiting investors.</b></p><p>In 2022, consumers suffered the worst cost-of-living shock in 40 years, and the Federal Reserve responded with significant rate hike, which frightened many investors. Entering 2023, the path of U.S. inflation may have more surprises waiting for investors.</p><p>The United States is scheduled to release its November consumer price index on Tuesday, the last inflation report of 2022. The report is expected to show that while inflation has slowed, it is still close to three times pre-pandemic levels. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month for the second consecutive month and 6.1% year-on-year.</p><p>The report will reinforce the claim that inflation has peaked, said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC. However, \"in terms of the inflation outlook, we will experience some bumps at least in the coming months.\"</p><p>The trajectory of inflation next year will depend on whether the rise in core commodity prices slows further, when and how much rents cool, and the extent to which wage growth (especially in the service sector) slows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a819e720983e0b9e36caeade6f00b52b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A New York Federal Reserve survey shows that inflation expectations for the coming year have fallen to their lowest level since 2021.</b></p><p>According to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S. household inflation expectations for the coming year fell to their lowest level since August 2021 last month.</p><p>According to the monthly consumer expectations survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday, Americans' inflation expectations for the next 12 months were 5.2% in November, lower than the 5.7% forecast the previous month. Inflation expectations for the next three and five years have also declined.</p><p>With real inflation soaring to its highest level in four decades, Federal Reserve officials have been actively tightening monetary policy this year in an effort to curb inflation expectations. Investors and economists widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate above 4% on Wednesday for the first time since 2008.</p><p>The New York Federal Reserve's decline in consumer inflation expectations in November is consistent with official data released last month suggesting that price pressures may be beginning to ease. The consumer price index rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, the lowest since January.</p><p>The U.S. Department of Labor is scheduled to release November CPI data on Tuesday. Forecasters expect inflation to slow further to 7.3% in November. Households surveyed by the New York Fed believe that gasoline prices will rise by 4.7% in the coming year. Food prices are expected to rise by 8.3%, and rents are expected to rise by 9.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/046537dd77ae466ed9a7de86c9e853f8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's long-term views diverge from Wall Street's, and the market expects interest rates to fall rapidly in 2023.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues disagreed with Wall Street on how long interest rates would remain high in 2023, with history on Powell's side.</p><p>After four consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points, marking the fastest pace of monetary policy tightening since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve may slow its pace on Wednesday and decide to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points.</p><p>The move, widely cited by officials, would raise the target range for interest rates to 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest level since 2007. Economists believe that Federal Reserve officials may also indicate that they will rate hike by another 50 basis points next year, and once that high is reached, they will keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2023.</p><p>Financial markets agree with the short-term vision, but expect interest rates to fall rapidly from their peak levels later next year. The reason for this conflict may be that investors expect price pressures to ease faster than the Federal Reserve anticipates, and the Fed, which has experienced a failure to predict \"temporary price pressures,\" is concerned that inflation may persist. This may also reflect that bets that the unemployment rate will rise will become a deeper concern for the Federal Reserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa82c6e6fb2e16b2eb0648ac2515703\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are pessimistic about the stock market next year, citing declining earnings as the biggest risk.</b></p><p>For many investors, this week's inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions may be top priorities. However, according to some of Wall Street's most prominent strategists, the prospect of future declining profits is the biggest concern for the stock market.</p><p>According to a report by Michael Wilson, strategist at Morgan Stanley (90.62, 1.15, 1.29%), and David Kostin, strategist at Goldman Sachs (360.15, 1.01, 0.28%), earnings may shrink more than expected in 2023 as profit margins come under pressure, putting the stock market in a difficult environment.</p><p>“The final chapter of this bear market is all about the path of earnings forecasts, which are too high right now,” Wilson wrote in a report on Monday. The consumer price index and the Federal Reserve meeting are already \"yesterday's news,\" wrote the strategist who ranked first in the latest institutional investor survey.</p><p>Both Wilson and Kostin believe that the stock market will have a tough start to 2023. In 2022, many major indices fell into a bear market before rebounding in the fourth quarter. So far, soaring inflation and rate hike have been the biggest concerns for investors, and this is likely to continue, at least in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36e5bbdc33833198a786c36165fccbc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The UK property market is showing signs of weakness, with sellers' asking prices falling by the largest margin in four years.</b></p><p>According to data from real estate website Rightmove Plc, sellers have lowered their asking prices by the most in four years after soaring interest rates in the UK made buyers hesitant.</p><p>Data from the website shows that the average asking price fell 2.1% in December to £359,137 ($440,980).</p><p>Rightmove stated that while sellers typically offer discounts in December to facilitate transactions before Christmas, this year's decline is greater than the same period in previous years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6599794916e6f679102b1351b80be60b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Microsoft and London Stock Exchange Group have reached a 10-year cooperation agreement and will acquire a 4% stake.</b></p><p>Microsoft (250.22, 4.80, 1.96%) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LSE.UK\">London Stock Exchange</a>The Group has entered into a 10-year strategic partnership agreement for next-generation data and analytics and cloud infrastructure, and will acquire approximately 4% equity in the latter.</p><p>Microsoft announced on Monday that it will acquire Blackstone and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRI\">Thomson Reuters</a>The shares held by the consortium. Scott Guthrie, Microsoft's executive vice president of cloud and artificial intelligence, will be appointed as a director.</p><p>The announcement stated that the equity transaction is part of a broader 10-year partnership between the two parties; The collaboration will help the London Stock Exchange Group use Microsoft products to develop data and analytics and cloud infrastructure. The partnership is expected to see the London Stock Exchange Group invest between £250 million ($306 million) and £300 million between 2023 and 2025, including approximately £100 million in capital expenditure.</p><p>Microsoft can expect to earn approximately $2.8 billion in revenue from the London Stock Exchange Group over the entire life of the partnership, with further revenue depending on the success of the strategic partnership and the demand for the London Stock Exchange Group's data platform and professional services.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-12-13/doc-imxwncsc2323138.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f7120120bf28d4a384d15c9113d258c","relate_stocks":{"BK4097":"系统软件","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES 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MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4577":"网络游戏","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4525":"远程办公概念","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-12-13/doc-imxwncsc2323138.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291731811","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、展望2023年 经济学家预计将有更多通胀意外等待投资者2、纽约联储调查显示对未来一年的通胀预期降至2021年以来最低3、美联储长期观点与华尔街发生分歧 市场料2023年利率会快速下降4、摩根士丹利和高盛不看好明年股市 称业绩下滑是最大风险5、英国楼市疲态尽显 卖家要价降幅创四年来最大6、微软和伦敦证交所集团达成10年合作协议 并将收购4%股权展望2023年 经济学家预计将有更多通胀意外等待投资者在2022年，消费者遭遇了40年来最严重的生活成本冲击，美联储通过大幅加息予以应对，令许多投资者受到了惊吓。进入2023年，美国的通胀路径可能还有更多意外在等待着投资者。美国定于周二发布11月消费者价格指数，也是2022年的最后一次通胀报告。预计该报告将显示，虽然通胀放缓，但仍然接近疫情前水平的三倍。不包括食品和能源的核心CPI预计连续第二个月环比上涨0.3%，同比则上涨6.1%。该报告将强化通胀已经见顶的说法，Jefferies LLC首席金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示。但是“在通胀前景方面，至少未来几个月我们会遭遇一些颠簸。”明年通胀的轨迹将取决于核心商品价格上涨是否进一步放缓，租金何时降温以及降温幅度，还有工资增速（尤其是服务业）的放缓程度。纽约联储调查显示对未来一年的通胀预期降至2021年以来最低根据纽约联邦储备银行的一项调查，美国家庭对未来一年的通胀预期上个月降至2021年8月以来的最低水平。根据纽约联储银行周一发布的月度消费者预期调查，11月份美国民众对未来12个月的通胀预期为5.2%，低于之前一个月时预计的5.7%。对未来三年和五年的通胀率预期也有所下降。在实际通胀率飙升至四十年来最高水平的背景下，美联储官员今年一直在积极收紧货币政策，以期遏制通胀预期。投资者和经济学家普遍预计，美联储周三将把基准利率自2008年以来首次上调至4%以上。纽约联储11月消费者通胀预期下降与上个月公布的官方数据显示物价压力或许开始缓解相一致。10月份消费者价格指数同比上升7.7%，创下1月以来最低。美国劳工部定于周二公布11月CPI数据。预测人士预计11月通胀会进一步放缓至7.3%。接受纽约联储调查的家庭认为，未来一年汽油价格上涨4.7%。食品价格料上涨8.3%，租金料上涨9.8%。美联储长期观点与华尔街发生分歧 市场料2023年利率会快速下降对于2023年利率会在多长时间保持高位，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的同事与华尔街产生了分歧，而历史站在鲍威尔一边。在连续四次加息75个基点、创出1980年代以来最快货币政策紧缩步伐之后，美联储周三或将放慢脚步，决定将基准利率提高50个基点。官员们广泛提及的这一举动将把利率目标区间上调至4.25%至4.5%，为2007年以来最高水平。经济学家们认为，美联储官员可能还会表示明年会再加息50个基点，而一旦达到这个高点，他们会在2023年全年维持利率不变。金融市场对短期愿景表示认同，但预计利率会在明年晚些时候从峰值水平快速回落。造成这种冲突的原因可能在于，投资者预计物价压力缓解速度将快于美联储预期，而曾经历“物价压力暂时性”预言落空的美联储担心通胀可能会持续下去。这可能也反映出，对于失业率会上升的押注将成为美联储更深重的关切。摩根士丹利和高盛不看好明年股市 称业绩下滑是最大风险对于许多投资者来说，本周将公布的通胀数据和美联储政策决定或许是头等大事。但在一些华尔街最知名的策略师看来，未来利润下滑的前景才是股市的心腹大患。据摩根士丹利（90.62， 1.15， 1.29%）策略师Michael Wilson和高盛（360.15， 1.01， 0.28%）集团David Kostin的报告，在2023年，随着利润率遭遇压力，盈利萎缩幅度可能超过预期，从而令股市处于艰难的环境之中。“这个熊市的最后一章完全是关乎盈利预测的路径，它们现在太高了，” Wilson在周一的一份报告中写道。消费价格指数和美联储会议已经是“昨天的新闻”，这位在最新的机构投资者调查中排名第一的策略师写道。Wilson和Kostin都认为，2023年股市将迎来艰难的开局。在2022年，许多主要指数都跌入熊市，之后在第四季度有所上涨。到目前为止，通胀飙升和加息一直是投资者最担心的问题，至少短期而言，情况可能继续如此。英国楼市疲态尽显 卖家要价降幅创四年来最大据地产网站Rightmove Plc的数据，英国的利率飙升致使买家犹豫不决后，卖家下调要价的幅度创四年来最大。该网站的数据显示，12月份平均要价下降了2.1%，至359，137英镑（440，980美元）。Rightmove称，虽然卖家通常在12月份通过折价来促进圣诞节前完成交易，但今年的降幅大于往年同期。微软和伦敦证交所集团达成10年合作协议 并将收购4%股权微软（250.22， 4.80， 1.96%）公司和伦敦证券交易所集团就下一代数据和分析及云基础设施达成10年战略伙伴协议，并将收购后者约4%股权。微软周一发布公告称，将收购由Blackstone和汤森路透组成财团所持的股份。微软负责云和人工智能的执行副总裁Scott Guthrie将被任命为董事。公告称，这笔股权交易是双方为期10年更广泛伙伴关系的一部分；双方合作将帮助伦敦证交所集团使用微软的产品，开发数据和分析及云基础设施。这番合作预计伦敦证交所集团在2023至2025年期间投入2.5亿英镑（3.06亿美元）至3亿英镑，其中包括约1亿英镑的资本支出。微软可以预计在伙伴关系整个生命周期中，从伦敦证交所集团获得约28亿美元的收入，更多收入取决于战略合作伙伴关系的成功程度，以及对伦敦证交所集团数据平台和专业服务的需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929148627,"gmtCreate":1670631690269,"gmtModify":1676538407336,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929148627","repostId":"1164776765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965859296,"gmtCreate":1669938286316,"gmtModify":1676538272736,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965859296","repostId":"2288839109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288839109","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669930251,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288839109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 05:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign Media Headlines | US Core PCE Still Far Exceeds Fed Target, Hopes for a Soft Landing Slim","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288839109","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　10月美国一项基准通胀指标——核心PCE同比上涨5%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储通胀降温但经济不衰退的希望仍然渺茫。美联储主席鲍威尔本周强调，核心PCE是他认为更能准确反映通胀走向的指标。　　在截至11月19日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数增加5.7万人，至160万人，为一年来最大增幅。　　美国商务部周四发布的数据显示，10月份个人储蓄占可支配收入之比降至2.3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. US core PCE far exceeds the Fed's 2% target; hopes for a soft landing remain slim.</b><b>2. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States continues to rise to its highest level since February, making re-employment more difficult.</b><b>3. The U.S. savings rate fell to its lowest level since 2005 in October, hit by both persistent inflation and Fed rate hike.</b><b>4. The Chicago Federal Reserve appointed former Obama administration advisor Goolsby as its new president.</b><b>5. Credit Suisse's stock price has hit its longest losing streak in history, falling 66% this year.</b><b>6. UK house prices fell more than expected, and soaring mortgage rates dampened demand.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>US core PCE far exceeds the Fed's 2% target; hopes for a soft landing remain slim.</b></p><p>In October, core PCE, a benchmark inflation measure in the United States, rose 5% year-on-year, a 6% increase, still far exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The Fed's hopes of cooling inflation but avoiding a recession remain slim.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in October, a lower-than-expected increase. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized this week that core PCE is an indicator that he believes more accurately reflects the direction of inflation.</p><p>Core PCE rose 5% year-on-year, with the September increase revised upward to 5.2%.</p><p>Overall PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month for the third consecutive month and 6% year-on-year, still far exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bd89a1ca05a83b77f9ce74a93c3892\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States continues to rise to its highest level since February, making re-employment more difficult.</b></p><p>The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the United States rose to its highest level since February, indicating that it is becoming more difficult for unemployed Americans to find new jobs in a gradually cooling labor market.</p><p>In the week ending November 19, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the United States increased by 57,000 to 1.6 million, the largest increase in a year.</p><p>Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 225,000 in the week ending November 26. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 235,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6f67b8dab72d003d6a36b4735a6092\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The U.S. savings rate fell to its lowest level since 2005 in October, hit by both persistent inflation and Fed rate hike.</b></p><p>Americans' savings rate hit its lowest level since 2005, highlighting that inflation and rising borrowing costs are eroding households' financial buffers.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday showed that personal savings as a percentage of disposable income fell to 2.3% in October. The report also shows that although inflation has cooled slightly, inflation-adjusted spending remains strong.</p><p>Under the dual impact of persistent inflation and Federal Reserve rate hike, U.S. consumer spending is unlikely to decline. The most representative example is the increase in credit card spending, with the year-on-year increase in U.S. household debt in the third quarter reaching its highest level since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d525cc42899299aa4b8612a0f9436181\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Chicago Federal Reserve has appointed former Obama administration advisor Goolsby as its new president.</b></p><p>The Chicago Fed has appointed Austan Goolsbee, an economist who served as an advisor to former President Obama, as its new president. The current president, Evans, will retire next January.</p><p>The Chicago Fed said in an emailed statement Thursday that Goolsby, 53, who is currently a professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, will take office on January 9. Goolsbee was a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and the youngest member of President Barack Obama's cabinet.</p><p>Evans led the Chicago Fed for 15 years, and for most of his tenure, he was one of the Fed's most dovish policymakers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25334e85cba6df35ddcc81c2f9c1e561\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Credit Suisse's stock price has hit its longest losing streak in history, falling 66% this year.</b></p><p>Credit Suisse Group's stock price fell for the 13th consecutive day, marking its longest losing streak in history. The Swiss bank is in deep trouble, and its capital raising plan has further impacted its share price after years of scandals and mismanagement.</p><p>Credit Suisse closed down 6.1% to a record low of $3.08 on Thursday. The stock price has fallen by about 21% since November 23, when the bank said its key wealth management business was experiencing a large outflow of funds and that it could suffer another significant loss in the fourth quarter, reaching 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.6 billion).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a348a366bc39d591cfb5fb19987fb1ac\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>UK house prices fell more than expected as soaring mortgage rates dampened demand.</b></p><p>UK mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society said that after soaring borrowing costs dampened demand, UK house prices fell more than expected, and at the fastest rate since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>UK house prices fell 1.4% in November, the agency said. This is the second decline in months and the largest drop since June 2020. Excluding the pandemic, UK house prices have not fallen so sharply since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Economists had previously expected a 0.4% decline.</p><p>Home loan costs have soared to more than 6% in recent weeks from around 1% a year ago, influenced by the Bank of England's increase in benchmark lending rates and investor concerns about slowing economic growth and rising government debt. Although borrowers' costs have fallen from their peak, they may still be much higher than buyers' levels for most of the past decade.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign Media Headlines | US Core PCE Still Far Exceeds Fed Target, Hopes for a Soft Landing Slim</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign Media Headlines | US Core PCE Still Far Exceeds Fed Target, Hopes for a Soft Landing Slim\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 05:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. US core PCE far exceeds the Fed's 2% target; hopes for a soft landing remain slim.</b><b>2. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States continues to rise to its highest level since February, making re-employment more difficult.</b><b>3. The U.S. savings rate fell to its lowest level since 2005 in October, hit by both persistent inflation and Fed rate hike.</b><b>4. The Chicago Federal Reserve appointed former Obama administration advisor Goolsby as its new president.</b><b>5. Credit Suisse's stock price has hit its longest losing streak in history, falling 66% this year.</b><b>6. UK house prices fell more than expected, and soaring mortgage rates dampened demand.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>US core PCE far exceeds the Fed's 2% target; hopes for a soft landing remain slim.</b></p><p>In October, core PCE, a benchmark inflation measure in the United States, rose 5% year-on-year, a 6% increase, still far exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The Fed's hopes of cooling inflation but avoiding a recession remain slim.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in October, a lower-than-expected increase. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized this week that core PCE is an indicator that he believes more accurately reflects the direction of inflation.</p><p>Core PCE rose 5% year-on-year, with the September increase revised upward to 5.2%.</p><p>Overall PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month for the third consecutive month and 6% year-on-year, still far exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00bd89a1ca05a83b77f9ce74a93c3892\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States continues to rise to its highest level since February, making re-employment more difficult.</b></p><p>The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the United States rose to its highest level since February, indicating that it is becoming more difficult for unemployed Americans to find new jobs in a gradually cooling labor market.</p><p>In the week ending November 19, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the United States increased by 57,000 to 1.6 million, the largest increase in a year.</p><p>Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 225,000 in the week ending November 26. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 235,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6f67b8dab72d003d6a36b4735a6092\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The U.S. savings rate fell to its lowest level since 2005 in October, hit by both persistent inflation and Fed rate hike.</b></p><p>Americans' savings rate hit its lowest level since 2005, highlighting that inflation and rising borrowing costs are eroding households' financial buffers.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday showed that personal savings as a percentage of disposable income fell to 2.3% in October. The report also shows that although inflation has cooled slightly, inflation-adjusted spending remains strong.</p><p>Under the dual impact of persistent inflation and Federal Reserve rate hike, U.S. consumer spending is unlikely to decline. The most representative example is the increase in credit card spending, with the year-on-year increase in U.S. household debt in the third quarter reaching its highest level since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d525cc42899299aa4b8612a0f9436181\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Chicago Federal Reserve has appointed former Obama administration advisor Goolsby as its new president.</b></p><p>The Chicago Fed has appointed Austan Goolsbee, an economist who served as an advisor to former President Obama, as its new president. The current president, Evans, will retire next January.</p><p>The Chicago Fed said in an emailed statement Thursday that Goolsby, 53, who is currently a professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, will take office on January 9. Goolsbee was a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and the youngest member of President Barack Obama's cabinet.</p><p>Evans led the Chicago Fed for 15 years, and for most of his tenure, he was one of the Fed's most dovish policymakers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25334e85cba6df35ddcc81c2f9c1e561\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Credit Suisse's stock price has hit its longest losing streak in history, falling 66% this year.</b></p><p>Credit Suisse Group's stock price fell for the 13th consecutive day, marking its longest losing streak in history. The Swiss bank is in deep trouble, and its capital raising plan has further impacted its share price after years of scandals and mismanagement.</p><p>Credit Suisse closed down 6.1% to a record low of $3.08 on Thursday. The stock price has fallen by about 21% since November 23, when the bank said its key wealth management business was experiencing a large outflow of funds and that it could suffer another significant loss in the fourth quarter, reaching 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.6 billion).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a348a366bc39d591cfb5fb19987fb1ac\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>UK house prices fell more than expected as soaring mortgage rates dampened demand.</b></p><p>UK mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society said that after soaring borrowing costs dampened demand, UK house prices fell more than expected, and at the fastest rate since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>UK house prices fell 1.4% in November, the agency said. This is the second decline in months and the largest drop since June 2020. Excluding the pandemic, UK house prices have not fallen so sharply since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Economists had previously expected a 0.4% decline.</p><p>Home loan costs have soared to more than 6% in recent weeks from around 1% a year ago, influenced by the Bank of England's increase in benchmark lending rates and investor concerns about slowing economic growth and rising government debt. Although borrowers' costs have fallen from their peak, they may still be much higher than buyers' levels for most of the past decade.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6739501.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b26f4dcea8cd92793b55e49bafa9f8d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6739501.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288839109","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：　　 1、美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫       2、美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大       3、美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击       4、芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长　　 5、瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌66%　　 6、英国房价降幅超出预期 按揭贷款利率飙升抑制需求美国核心PCE远超美联储2%目标 软着陆的希望仍然渺茫10月美国一项基准通胀指标——核心PCE同比上涨5%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储通胀降温但经济不衰退的希望仍然渺茫。美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，10月不包括食品和能源的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）较10月增长0.2%，升幅低于预期。美联储主席鲍威尔本周强调，核心PCE是他认为更能准确反映通胀走向的指标。核心PCE同比上涨5%，9月升幅上修至5.2%。整体PCE连续第三个月环比上升0.3%，同比升幅6%，仍远高于美联储2%的目标。美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2月份以来最高 重新就业难度加大美国持续申领失业救济的人数升至2月份以来的最高水平，表明失业的美国人在逐渐降温的劳动力市场上找到新工作的难度加大。在截至11月19日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数增加5.7万人，至160万人，为一年来最大增幅。美国劳工部周四的数据显示，在截至11月26日当周，首次申领失业救济人数减少1.6万人，至22.5万人。接受彭博调查的经济学家的预估中值为23.5万人。美国10月份储蓄率降至2005年以来最低水平 持续通胀和联储加息双重打击美国人储蓄率创2005年以来最低水平，凸显出通胀和借贷成本上升正在削弱家庭的财务缓冲能力。美国商务部周四发布的数据显示，10月份个人储蓄占可支配收入之比降至2.3%。报告还显示，尽管通胀略有降温，但经通胀调整的支出仍然强劲。在持续通胀和美联储加息的双重打击下，美国消费支出很难下降。最具代表性的是，信用卡消费增多，第三季度美国居民债务的同比升幅达到2008年以来最高。芝加哥联储任命美国前奥巴马政府顾问古尔斯比为新行长芝加哥联储任命曾为前总统奥巴马担任顾问的经济学家奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）为新行长，现行长埃文斯将于明年1月退休。芝加哥联储周四在一份电邮声明中表示，现年53岁的古尔斯比将于1月9日履任，他目前是芝加哥大学布斯商学院经济学教授。古尔斯比曾经是美国经济顾问委员会主席，并且是美国总统奥巴马内阁中最年轻的内阁成员。埃文斯执掌芝加哥联储15年，在任内的大部分时间里，他一直是美联储最鸽派的决策者之一。瑞信股价创史上最长连跌纪录 今年以来已下跌66%瑞信集团股价连续第13天走低，创出有史以来最长连跌纪录，这家瑞士银行深陷困境，在持续多年的丑闻和管理不善后，资本募集计划对其股价构成进一步的冲击。瑞信周四收盘下跌6.1%，至3.08美元的纪录新低。11月23日以来，股价下跌了大约21%，当时该行称，其关键性的理财业务遭遇大量资金外流，并称第四季度可能会再次蒙受重大亏损，达到15亿瑞郎（16亿美元）。英国房价降幅超出预期 按揭贷款利率飙升抑制需求英国按揭贷款机构Nationwide Building Society表示，在借贷成本飙升抑制需求之后，英国房价跌幅超过预期，而且是新冠疫情爆发以来的最快跌速。该机构称，英国11月房价下跌1.4%。这是数月来的第二次下跌，也是2020年6月以来的最大跌幅。不包括疫情时期，英国房价自10多年前全球金融危机以来从未出现过如此大幅的下跌。经济学家此前预期为下滑0.4%。受英国央行上调基准贷款利率以及投资者对经济增长放缓和政府债务上升的担忧影响，住房贷款成本最近几周从一年前的约1%飙升至6%以上。虽然借款人的成本已较峰值回落，但仍可能远高于买家过去十年大部分时间内的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966093056,"gmtCreate":1669340566776,"gmtModify":1676538185332,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察] [思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966093056","repostId":"1180282997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968596923,"gmtCreate":1669251941563,"gmtModify":1676538173625,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察] [思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968596923","repostId":"1100377985","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100377985","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669248173,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100377985?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-24 08:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | The Federal Reserve's sudden dovish stance caused the Nasdaq to rise nearly 1%, and Tesla to surge nearly 8%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100377985","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美联储突然”放鸽“，美股2连涨，特斯拉暴涨3000亿；②美油盘中大跌5%，美欧天然气暴涨；③德国将对能源公司征收33%暴利税；④乌克兰再遭大规模空袭。海外行情1、联储纪要暗示放缓加息美股集体收","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① The Federal Reserve suddenly adopted a dovish stance, causing US stocks to rise for two consecutive days and Tesla to surge by $300 billion; ② US oil prices plummeted 5% during trading, while US and European natural gas prices surged; ③ Germany will impose a 33% windfall profits tax on energy companies; ④ Ukraine was subjected to another large-scale airstrike.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afe682da70c8867031dccd3245e0cf5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Overseas Market</p><p>1. Fed minutes suggest a slowdown in rate hike; US stocks collectively closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 1%.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday. Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that most officials believe the pace of interest rate hikes is expected to slow \"soon,\" and Fed economists believe the probability of a U.S. recession next year is as high as 50%. U.S. initial jobless claims data and the October durable goods orders index both exceeded expectations last week, and the consumer confidence index fell to 56.8 in November.</p><p>At the close of trading, the Nasdaq index rose 0.99%; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.28%, hitting a new closing high since April 21; The S&P 500 rose 0.59%.</p><p>Major tech stocks rose collectively.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 0.59%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 1.00%, and Meta rose 0.72%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 1.45%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It rose 1.04%, while Netflix rose 1.68%.</p><p>New energy vehicle stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose 7.82%, marking its biggest single-day gain since July, with its market capitalization surging by $42 billion (approximately RMB 305.6 billion).</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 3%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 3.30%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 0.07%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 0.99%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.02%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 0.27%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 1.73%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose 2.06%, while Full Truck Alliance rose 13.19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles rose 5.49%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Up 3.98%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It rose 3.59%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.04%.</p><p>Major European stock indices closed higher on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.04%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.17%, the French CAC40 rose 0.32%, and the European Stoxx 50 rose 0.42%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil closed down 3.7% on Wednesday.</p><p>On Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for January delivery on the U.S. Mercantile Exchange fell $3.01, or 3.7%, to settle at $77.94 a barrel. December natural gas futures rose 7.80% to settle at $7.3080 per million British thermal units.</p><p>EIA data shows that U.S. distillate and gasoline inventories rose more than expected last week, putting downward pressure on oil prices. The market is also assessing the outlook for crude oil demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures prices closed 0.3% higher on Wednesday.</p><p>Gold futures for December delivery on the U.S. Mercantile Exchange rose $5.70, or 0.33%, to settle at $1,745.60 an ounce on Wednesday.</p><p>The Federal Reserve meeting minutes stated that Fed officials believed the Fed would soon slow its pace of rate hike, providing support for gold prices.</p><p>Macro News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1157048662\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Most officials support slowing the pace of rate hike; terminal interest rates may be higher than expected.</a></p><p>Minutes from the November meeting released Wednesday showed that most Federal Reserve officials believe they should slow down the pace of rate hike after four consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"The vast majority of participants believed that slowing the pace of rate hike may be appropriate soon.\" Some officials indicated that the risk is rising that the Federal Reserve's rate hike this year may exceed the level needed to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Others warned that continuing the 75 basis point rate hike would increase the risk of instability or chaos in the financial system.</p><p>2. Federal Reserve researchers predict a 50% chance of a U.S. economic recession next year.</p><p>The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November 1-2 policy meeting, released Wednesday, showed that internal economists at the Fed predict that the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession next year is close to 50%.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"Weak growth in domestic private sector real spending, a deteriorating global outlook, and tightening financial conditions are all considered to pose significant downside risks to real economic activity forecasts; in addition, the possibility of continued declines in inflation or the need for a greater-than-expected tightening of financial conditions is also considered a downside risk.\"</p><p>3. EU countries are pushing forward with a chip bill, planning to invest over 43 billion euros to support their domestic supply chains.</p><p>On Wednesday (November 23) local time, EU member states agreed to invest more than 43 billion euros in developing the chip industry, aiming to support domestic chip supply chains and reduce dependence on US and Asian manufacturers.</p><p>In February of this year, the European Commission announced the highly anticipated Chip Act, which plans to significantly increase the EU's share of global chip production. Europe's share of chip production has fallen from 24% in 2000 to 8% today, and the Chip Act aims to increase this figure to 20% by 2030.</p><p>4. US economy contracts amid aggressive rate hike: Multiple PMI indicators fall below the expansion/contraction threshold.</p><p>On Wednesday (November 23) local time, a financial analysis company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report shows that the U.S. manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) continued to decline in November, with both indicators below the expansion/contraction threshold.</p><p>Specific data shows that the preliminary reading of the US manufacturing PMI in November fell to 47.6 from 50.4 in the previous month, hitting a 30-month low; The preliminary reading of the manufacturing output index fell below the 50 expansion/contraction threshold, from 50.7 last month to 47.2, also recording a 30-month low.</p><p>5. Germany's plan to impose a 33% windfall profits tax on energy companies has been criticized as insufficiently high.</p><p>According to media reports citing sources in the German Ministry of Finance, the German government plans to impose a windfall profits tax of up to 33% on natural gas, oil and coal companies, which is expected to generate 1-3 billion euros in revenue.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the tax, called \"EU Energy Crisis Contribution,\" will be implemented by the end of 2022. The number of companies taxed is expected to reach double digits, and the new tax targets their profits in 2022 and 2023.</p><p>6. EU negotiations on a price cap for Russian oil have reached a stalemate.</p><p>According to media reports citing sources, negotiations between EU countries reached a stalemate on Wednesday evening over what level the G7 should set a price cap on Russian crude oil.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the European Commission's proposal was $65 per barrel, but Poland and the Baltic states opposed it, arguing that the price was too generous for Moscow. However, some countries with larger shipping industries, including Greece and Malta, do not want the price cap to fall below $70, the high end of the price range proposed by the EU earlier Wednesday.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. Polish Defense Minister: Suggests Germany deploy air defense missile systems originally planned to assist Poland in western Ukraine.</p><p>On November 23 local time, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Błaszczak said that he had proposed to Germany to transfer the Patriot air defense missile system, which was originally planned to assist Poland, to Ukraine and deploy it in western Ukraine. Bułaszczak stated that this would help prevent further casualties and power outages in Ukraine, while also strengthening security on Poland's eastern border.</p><p>2. Ukraine suffers another large-scale airstrike: Power outages across the country, water supply to the capital Kyiv suspended.</p><p>On Wednesday (November 23) local time, Ukrainian power grid company Ukrenergo announced that Ukraine had entered a state of power outage following a large-scale Russian missile attack. In addition, the mayor of Kyiv announced that water supply would be suspended in all regions of Kyiv.</p><p>Earlier that day, explosions occurred in several parts of Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, Lviv, and Odessa. Local authorities reported that several key infrastructure sites were attacked, and water and electricity supplies were disrupted in some areas.</p><p>3. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the situation in Ukraine.</p><p>On November 23 local time, at the request of the United States and Albania, the UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the situation in Ukraine at 4 p.m. that day. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that day that he had instructed Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the United Nations to request an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. It is also understood that Ukrainian President Zelensky may attend the meeting via video link. In addition, UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Di Carlo is expected to provide a briefing on the situation.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Stock price rebounded strongly</p><p>Tesla's stock price surged 7.82% to close at $183.20 per share on Wednesday, Eastern Time.</p><p>Tesla's market capitalization evaporated by nearly $300 billion in two months, and a growing number of analysts said the company's stock price was nearing rock bottom, pushing its share price higher on Wednesday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Adam Jonas earlier stated that Tesla is approaching his bearish target price of $150, which presents investors with an opportunity to buy on dips.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>Analysts upgraded Tesla's rating on Wednesday.</p><p>According to relevant statistics, most Tesla analysts rate the stock as a buy or equivalent to a buy.</p><p>2. Credit Suisse forecasts a fourth-quarter loss, causing its stock price to fall by more than 6%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>On Wednesday, the company warned that it expects to lose 1.5 billion Swiss francs (about $1.6 billion) in the fourth quarter, making its situation even more difficult as many clients chose to withdraw their funds due to concerns about its financial situation. Credit Suisse shares closed down 6.36% at $3.83 per share on Wednesday.</p><p>Credit Suisse revealed that between September 30 and November 11, its net asset value continued to flow out, with outflows accounting for approximately 6% of its assets under management (US$1.47 trillion). The bank said late last month that news circulating on social media amplified investor concerns about its financial health, leading to a large outflow of funds, a trend that continued in the first two weeks of October.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Plans to invest $1 billion annually in theatrical films.</p><p>According to media reports citing sources, Amazon plans to invest over $1 billion annually in producing movies to be released in theaters, making it the largest sum of money an internet company has ever invested in theaters.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter say Amazon aims to produce 12 to 15 movies per year that will be released in theaters. Next year, Amazon will release a smaller number of movies in theaters and increase production over time. Ultimately, Amazon's film distribution volume will be on par with major film studios such as Paramount Pictures.</p><p>4. Private equity firms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VGL.AU\">View</a>Equity Partners considers acquiring software company Coupa</p><p>According to media reports citing sources, private equity firms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VGL.AU\">View</a>Equity Partners is considering acquiring Coupa Software, a supplier management Software company. Sources familiar with the matter said Vista has been in talks with Coupa, which is working with a consultant. Sources familiar with the matter say the deal will not be completed soon, and Vista may choose not to proceed with the deal. It is understood that other buyers may also want to acquire Coupa.</p><p>5. Rumors circulate that the major shareholder, IFP, opposes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWS\">News Corp.</a>Potential merger of -A and Fox Corporation -A</p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWSA\">News Corp.</a>-A and Independent Franchise Partners, major shareholders of Fox Corporation-A, oppose Rupert Murdoch's plans to restructure the media giant, saying the merger may not realize the company's full value, and the investor would prefer to see...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWS\">News Corp.</a>It was spun off and sold.</p><p>Previously, another shareholder and activist investor, Irenic Capital Management, also expressed opposition to the potential merger of the two companies, stating that it would undervalue them.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWSA\">News Corp.</a>The value.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | The Federal Reserve's sudden dovish stance caused the Nasdaq to rise nearly 1%, and Tesla to surge nearly 8%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | The Federal Reserve's sudden dovish stance caused the Nasdaq to rise nearly 1%, and Tesla to surge nearly 8%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-24 08:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① The Federal Reserve suddenly adopted a dovish stance, causing US stocks to rise for two consecutive days and Tesla to surge by $300 billion; ② US oil prices plummeted 5% during trading, while US and European natural gas prices surged; ③ Germany will impose a 33% windfall profits tax on energy companies; ④ Ukraine was subjected to another large-scale airstrike.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afe682da70c8867031dccd3245e0cf5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Overseas Market</p><p>1. Fed minutes suggest a slowdown in rate hike; US stocks collectively closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 1%.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday. Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that most officials believe the pace of interest rate hikes is expected to slow \"soon,\" and Fed economists believe the probability of a U.S. recession next year is as high as 50%. U.S. initial jobless claims data and the October durable goods orders index both exceeded expectations last week, and the consumer confidence index fell to 56.8 in November.</p><p>At the close of trading, the Nasdaq index rose 0.99%; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.28%, hitting a new closing high since April 21; The S&P 500 rose 0.59%.</p><p>Major tech stocks rose collectively.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 0.59%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 1.00%, and Meta rose 0.72%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 1.45%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It rose 1.04%, while Netflix rose 1.68%.</p><p>New energy vehicle stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose 7.82%, marking its biggest single-day gain since July, with its market capitalization surging by $42 billion (approximately RMB 305.6 billion).</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 3%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 3.30%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 0.07%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 0.99%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.02%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 0.27%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 1.73%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose 2.06%, while Full Truck Alliance rose 13.19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles rose 5.49%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Up 3.98%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It rose 3.59%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.04%.</p><p>Major European stock indices closed higher on Wednesday, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.04%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.17%, the French CAC40 rose 0.32%, and the European Stoxx 50 rose 0.42%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil closed down 3.7% on Wednesday.</p><p>On Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for January delivery on the U.S. Mercantile Exchange fell $3.01, or 3.7%, to settle at $77.94 a barrel. December natural gas futures rose 7.80% to settle at $7.3080 per million British thermal units.</p><p>EIA data shows that U.S. distillate and gasoline inventories rose more than expected last week, putting downward pressure on oil prices. The market is also assessing the outlook for crude oil demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures prices closed 0.3% higher on Wednesday.</p><p>Gold futures for December delivery on the U.S. Mercantile Exchange rose $5.70, or 0.33%, to settle at $1,745.60 an ounce on Wednesday.</p><p>The Federal Reserve meeting minutes stated that Fed officials believed the Fed would soon slow its pace of rate hike, providing support for gold prices.</p><p>Macro News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1157048662\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Most officials support slowing the pace of rate hike; terminal interest rates may be higher than expected.</a></p><p>Minutes from the November meeting released Wednesday showed that most Federal Reserve officials believe they should slow down the pace of rate hike after four consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"The vast majority of participants believed that slowing the pace of rate hike may be appropriate soon.\" Some officials indicated that the risk is rising that the Federal Reserve's rate hike this year may exceed the level needed to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Others warned that continuing the 75 basis point rate hike would increase the risk of instability or chaos in the financial system.</p><p>2. Federal Reserve researchers predict a 50% chance of a U.S. economic recession next year.</p><p>The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November 1-2 policy meeting, released Wednesday, showed that internal economists at the Fed predict that the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession next year is close to 50%.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"Weak growth in domestic private sector real spending, a deteriorating global outlook, and tightening financial conditions are all considered to pose significant downside risks to real economic activity forecasts; in addition, the possibility of continued declines in inflation or the need for a greater-than-expected tightening of financial conditions is also considered a downside risk.\"</p><p>3. EU countries are pushing forward with a chip bill, planning to invest over 43 billion euros to support their domestic supply chains.</p><p>On Wednesday (November 23) local time, EU member states agreed to invest more than 43 billion euros in developing the chip industry, aiming to support domestic chip supply chains and reduce dependence on US and Asian manufacturers.</p><p>In February of this year, the European Commission announced the highly anticipated Chip Act, which plans to significantly increase the EU's share of global chip production. Europe's share of chip production has fallen from 24% in 2000 to 8% today, and the Chip Act aims to increase this figure to 20% by 2030.</p><p>4. US economy contracts amid aggressive rate hike: Multiple PMI indicators fall below the expansion/contraction threshold.</p><p>On Wednesday (November 23) local time, a financial analysis company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report shows that the U.S. manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) continued to decline in November, with both indicators below the expansion/contraction threshold.</p><p>Specific data shows that the preliminary reading of the US manufacturing PMI in November fell to 47.6 from 50.4 in the previous month, hitting a 30-month low; The preliminary reading of the manufacturing output index fell below the 50 expansion/contraction threshold, from 50.7 last month to 47.2, also recording a 30-month low.</p><p>5. Germany's plan to impose a 33% windfall profits tax on energy companies has been criticized as insufficiently high.</p><p>According to media reports citing sources in the German Ministry of Finance, the German government plans to impose a windfall profits tax of up to 33% on natural gas, oil and coal companies, which is expected to generate 1-3 billion euros in revenue.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the tax, called \"EU Energy Crisis Contribution,\" will be implemented by the end of 2022. The number of companies taxed is expected to reach double digits, and the new tax targets their profits in 2022 and 2023.</p><p>6. EU negotiations on a price cap for Russian oil have reached a stalemate.</p><p>According to media reports citing sources, negotiations between EU countries reached a stalemate on Wednesday evening over what level the G7 should set a price cap on Russian crude oil.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the European Commission's proposal was $65 per barrel, but Poland and the Baltic states opposed it, arguing that the price was too generous for Moscow. However, some countries with larger shipping industries, including Greece and Malta, do not want the price cap to fall below $70, the high end of the price range proposed by the EU earlier Wednesday.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. Polish Defense Minister: Suggests Germany deploy air defense missile systems originally planned to assist Poland in western Ukraine.</p><p>On November 23 local time, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Błaszczak said that he had proposed to Germany to transfer the Patriot air defense missile system, which was originally planned to assist Poland, to Ukraine and deploy it in western Ukraine. Bułaszczak stated that this would help prevent further casualties and power outages in Ukraine, while also strengthening security on Poland's eastern border.</p><p>2. Ukraine suffers another large-scale airstrike: Power outages across the country, water supply to the capital Kyiv suspended.</p><p>On Wednesday (November 23) local time, Ukrainian power grid company Ukrenergo announced that Ukraine had entered a state of power outage following a large-scale Russian missile attack. In addition, the mayor of Kyiv announced that water supply would be suspended in all regions of Kyiv.</p><p>Earlier that day, explosions occurred in several parts of Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, Lviv, and Odessa. Local authorities reported that several key infrastructure sites were attacked, and water and electricity supplies were disrupted in some areas.</p><p>3. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the situation in Ukraine.</p><p>On November 23 local time, at the request of the United States and Albania, the UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the situation in Ukraine at 4 p.m. that day. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that day that he had instructed Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the United Nations to request an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. It is also understood that Ukrainian President Zelensky may attend the meeting via video link. In addition, UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Di Carlo is expected to provide a briefing on the situation.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Stock price rebounded strongly</p><p>Tesla's stock price surged 7.82% to close at $183.20 per share on Wednesday, Eastern Time.</p><p>Tesla's market capitalization evaporated by nearly $300 billion in two months, and a growing number of analysts said the company's stock price was nearing rock bottom, pushing its share price higher on Wednesday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Adam Jonas earlier stated that Tesla is approaching his bearish target price of $150, which presents investors with an opportunity to buy on dips.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>Analysts upgraded Tesla's rating on Wednesday.</p><p>According to relevant statistics, most Tesla analysts rate the stock as a buy or equivalent to a buy.</p><p>2. Credit Suisse forecasts a fourth-quarter loss, causing its stock price to fall by more than 6%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>On Wednesday, the company warned that it expects to lose 1.5 billion Swiss francs (about $1.6 billion) in the fourth quarter, making its situation even more difficult as many clients chose to withdraw their funds due to concerns about its financial situation. Credit Suisse shares closed down 6.36% at $3.83 per share on Wednesday.</p><p>Credit Suisse revealed that between September 30 and November 11, its net asset value continued to flow out, with outflows accounting for approximately 6% of its assets under management (US$1.47 trillion). The bank said late last month that news circulating on social media amplified investor concerns about its financial health, leading to a large outflow of funds, a trend that continued in the first two weeks of October.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Plans to invest $1 billion annually in theatrical films.</p><p>According to media reports citing sources, Amazon plans to invest over $1 billion annually in producing movies to be released in theaters, making it the largest sum of money an internet company has ever invested in theaters.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter say Amazon aims to produce 12 to 15 movies per year that will be released in theaters. Next year, Amazon will release a smaller number of movies in theaters and increase production over time. Ultimately, Amazon's film distribution volume will be on par with major film studios such as Paramount Pictures.</p><p>4. Private equity firms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VGL.AU\">View</a>Equity Partners considers acquiring software company Coupa</p><p>According to media reports citing sources, private equity firms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VGL.AU\">View</a>Equity Partners is considering acquiring Coupa Software, a supplier management Software company. Sources familiar with the matter said Vista has been in talks with Coupa, which is working with a consultant. Sources familiar with the matter say the deal will not be completed soon, and Vista may choose not to proceed with the deal. It is understood that other buyers may also want to acquire Coupa.</p><p>5. Rumors circulate that the major shareholder, IFP, opposes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWS\">News Corp.</a>Potential merger of -A and Fox Corporation -A</p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWSA\">News Corp.</a>-A and Independent Franchise Partners, major shareholders of Fox Corporation-A, oppose Rupert Murdoch's plans to restructure the media giant, saying the merger may not realize the company's full value, and the investor would prefer to see...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWS\">News Corp.</a>It was spun off and sold.</p><p>Previously, another shareholder and activist investor, Irenic Capital Management, also expressed opposition to the potential merger of the two companies, stating that it would undervalue them.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWSA\">News Corp.</a>The value.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100377985","content_text":"摘要：①美联储突然”放鸽“，美股2连涨，特斯拉暴涨3000亿；②美油盘中大跌5%，美欧天然气暴涨；③德国将对能源公司征收33%暴利税；④乌克兰再遭大规模空袭。海外行情1、联储纪要暗示放缓加息美股集体收高纳指涨近1%美股周三收高。美联储会议纪要显示多数官员认为“不久后”可望放慢升息步伐，联储经济学家认为明年美国衰退的可能性高达50%。美上周初请失业救济数据与10月耐用品订单指数均超出预期，11月消费者信心指数降至56.8。截至收盘，纳斯达克指数涨幅为0.99%；道琼斯指数涨幅为0.28%，创4月21日以来收盘新高；标普500指数涨幅为0.59%。大型科技股集体上涨，苹果涨0.59%，亚马逊涨1.00%，Meta涨0.72%，谷歌涨1.45%，微软涨1.04%，奈飞涨1.68%。新能源汽车股普遍上涨，特斯拉涨7.82%，创7月以来最大单日涨幅，单日市值大涨420亿美元（约合人民币3056亿元）。2、热门中概股普涨阿里巴巴涨超3%热门中概股普涨，阿里巴巴涨3.30%，京东涨1.36%，拼多多跌0.07%，哔哩哔哩涨0.99%，百度涨2.02%，新东方跌0.27%，网易涨1.73%，爱奇艺涨2.06%，满帮涨13.19%，蔚来汽车涨5.49%，小鹏汽车涨3.98%，理想汽车涨3.59%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收涨德国DAX30指数涨0.04%欧股主要指数周三集体收涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.04%，英国富时100指数涨0.17%，法国CAC40指数涨0.32%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.42%。4、周三美国WTI原油收跌3.7%周三美国商品交易所1月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌3.01美元，跌幅为3.7%，收于每桶77.94美元。12月天然气期货收涨7.80%，收于每百万英热单位7.3080美元。EIA数据显示美国上周馏分油与汽油库存增幅超预期，令油价受到打压。市场同时还在评估原油需求前景。5、周三纽约黄金期货价格收高0.3%周三美国商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格上涨5.7美元，涨幅为0.33%，收于每盎司1745.60美元。美联储会议纪要称联储官员认为美联储很快将放缓加息步伐，令金价得到支撑。宏观新闻1、美联储会议纪要：多数官员支持放缓加息步伐 终端利率或高于预期周三公布的11月会议纪要显示，大多数美联储官员认为，在连续四次加息75个基点后，他们应该放缓加息步伐。会议纪要称：“绝大多数与会者认为，放缓加息步伐可能很快就合适了。”一些官员表示，美联储今年的加息可能超过了将通胀降至2%目标所需的水平，这种风险正在上升。其他人警告称，若继续以75个基点的幅度加息，将增加金融体系不稳定或混乱的风险。2、美联储研究人员预计明年美国经济衰退的可能性约为50%美联储周三公布的11月1-2日政策会议纪要显示，联储内部经济学家预计，明年美国经济陷入衰退的可能性接近50%。会议纪要称，“国内私人领域的实际支出增长乏力，全球前景恶化且金融条件收紧，这些都被认为构成对实际经济活动预测的突出下行风险；此外，通胀持续下降或需要金融条件以高于预期的程度紧缩，这个可能性也被视为一种下行风险”。3、欧盟国家推进芯片法案 拟投资逾430亿欧元扶持本土供应链当地时间周三（11月23日），欧盟成员国同意投入超过430亿欧元用于发展芯片行业，旨在扶持本土芯片供应链，减少对美国和亚洲制造商的依赖。今年2月，欧盟委员会公布了备受关注的《芯片法案》，计划大幅提升欧盟在全球的芯片生产份额。欧洲在芯片生产中所占的份额从2000年的24%下降到了如今的8%，而《芯片法案》的目标是到2030年将这一数字提升到20%。4、激进加息潮下美经济走向收缩：多项PMI指标均跌破荣枯线当地时间周三（11月23日），金融分析公司标普全球公布的最新数据报告显示，11月美国制造业和服务业采购经理指数（PMI）继续下行，两项指标均低于荣枯线。具体数据显示，美国11月份制造业PMI初值从上月的50.4降至47.6，刷新30个月来低位；制造业产出指数初值跌破50荣枯线，从上月的50.7跌至47.2，也录得30个月新低。5、德国计划对能源公司征收33%的暴利税 却被指税率不够高据媒体援引德国财政部消息人士报道，德国政府计划对天然气、石油和煤炭公司征收高达33%的暴利税，预计这项特别税将带来10-30亿欧元的收入。知情人士称，这项税收名为“欧盟能源危机贡献”，将在2022年年底实施，被征税的公司数量预计达到两位数，新税收针对的是这些公司2022年和2023年的利润。6、欧盟关于俄油价格上限的谈判陷入僵局据媒体援引消息人士报道，围绕七国集团对俄罗斯原油的价格上限应该设置在什么水平，欧盟各国之间的的谈判在周三晚间陷入僵局。知情人士称，欧盟委员会的提议是每桶65美元，但波兰和波罗的海国家对此表示反对，认为这个价格对莫斯科方面过于慷慨。但是，包括希腊和马耳他在内的一些拥有较大规模航运业的国家不希望价格上限低于70美元，也就是欧盟周三早些时候提出的价格区间的高端。俄乌局势1、波兰国防部长：建议德国将原计划援助波兰的防空导弹系统部署在乌克兰西部地区当地时间11月23日，波兰副总理兼国防部长布瓦什恰克表示，他已向德国提出建议，将原计划援助波兰的“爱国者”防空导弹系统转运至乌克兰，并部署在乌西部地区。布瓦什恰克称，这将有助于防止乌克兰出现更多人员伤亡和停电，同时也能加强波兰东部边境的安全。2、乌克兰再遭大规模空袭：全境进入停电状态 首都基辅暂停供水当地时间周三(11月23日)，乌克兰电网公司Ukrenergo宣布，在遭到俄罗斯大规模导弹袭击之后，乌克兰全境进入停电状态。此外，基辅市长宣布，基辅所有地区暂停供水。当天稍早前，包括首都基辅、利沃夫、敖德萨等在内的乌克兰多地发生爆炸。当地称，多处重要基础设施遭到袭击，部分地区水电供应中断。3、联合国安理会将就乌克兰局势举行临时会议当地时间11月23日，应美国、阿尔巴尼亚要求，联合国安理会将在当天16时就乌克兰局势举行临时会议。乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天表示，他已指示乌克兰常驻联合国代表要求联合国安理会召开紧急会议。另据了解，乌克兰总统泽连斯基或通过视频方式参会。此外，联合国负责政治与和平建设事务的副秘书长迪卡洛预计将对相关情况进行通报。公司新闻1、特斯拉股价强势反弹美东时间周三收盘，特斯拉股价大涨7.82%，收于183.2美元/股。特斯拉的市值在两个月内蒸发了近3000亿美元，越来越多的分析师表示，该公司的股价已接近谷底，从而在周三推高了其股价。摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas早些时候表示，特斯拉正在接近他的看跌目标价150美元，这为投资者提供了逢低买入的机会。花旗分析师周三上调了特斯拉评级。相关统计显示，大多数特斯拉分析师对该股的评价都是买入或相当于买入。2、瑞信预告四季度亏损 股价跌超6%瑞士信贷周三警告称，预计第四季度将亏损15亿瑞郎(约合16亿美元)，出于对其财务状况的担忧，许多客户选择撤离资金，导致其处境更加艰难。瑞信周三美股收盘跌6.36%，收于3.83美元/股。瑞信透露，9月30日至11月11日期间，其资产净值持续外流，外流资金大约占其管理资产(1.47万亿美元)的6%。该行上月底表示，社交媒体上传播的消息放大了投资者对其财务健康状况的担忧情绪，导致大量资金外流，这一趋势在10月的前两周仍在延续。3、亚马逊计划每年投资10亿美元制作院线电影据媒体援引消息人士报道，亚马逊计划每年投入逾10亿美元制作将在影院上映的电影，这是互联网公司在影院投入的最大一笔资金。知情人士称，亚马逊的目标是每年制作12至15部在院线上映的电影。明年，亚马逊将在影院上映较少数量的电影，并随着时间的推移增加产量。最终亚马逊的电影发行数量将与派拉蒙影业等主要电影公司并驾齐驱。4、私募股权公司Vista Equity Partners考虑收购软件公司Coupa据媒体援引消息人士报道，私募股权公司Vista Equity Partners正在考虑收购供应商管理软件公司Coupa Software。知情人士说，Vista已经与Coupa进行了谈判，后者正在与一名顾问合作。知情人士称，交易不会很快达成，而且Vista可能会选择不进行交易。据悉，可能会出现其他买家也想要收购Coupa。5、传大股东IFP反对新闻集团-A和福克斯公司-A的潜在合并据报道，新闻集团-A和福克斯公司-A的大股东Independent Franchise Partners反对鲁伯特·默多克重组传媒巨头的计划，称合并可能无法实现公司的全部价值，这位投资者更希望看到新闻集团被分拆出售。此前，另一位股东、激进投资者Irenic Capital Management也表示反对上述两家公司的潜在合并，称其将低估新闻集团的价值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"03086":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963147125,"gmtCreate":1668640988467,"gmtModify":1676538087466,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963147125","repostId":"1116759935","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116759935","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668607214,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116759935?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-16 22:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What did Buffett see when he bought chip stocks for the first time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116759935","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"股神对台积电的关注，可能已长达十年之久。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>When a company's stock price halves this year, it is likely to lose the favor of investors and may even be ruthlessly removed from the list.</p><p>However, when a company can buck the trend with strong performance, a drop in its stock price can actually help it become the focus of the spotlight, and it may even find that Buffett is already sitting in the front row of the audience.</p><p>This is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>。</p><p>Following its positive outlook from the industry, it has the potential to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>After seizing the semiconductor throne, TSMC single-handedly not only brought chip stocks to Buffett's \"favor\" for the first time, but also directly elevated itself to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway's top ten holdings became<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It is the second largest technology stock after the company, with a position of $4.1 billion (approximately RMB 29 billion).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceb4a594da02960a53ca7ef15c3d5fbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: whalewisdom</p><p><b>This first bold move stems from long-term \"secret observation,\" and the Oracle of Omaha's attention to TSMC may have lasted as long as ten years.</b></p><p>Media reports indicate that Nobunaga Chai, special research advisor to the Photoelectric Technology Industry Association (PIDA), stated:</p><p>When Buffett took action, he had already spent at least a decade monitoring the financial performance and fundamentals of his target companies. So, after spending ten years, what kind of \"moat\" did Buffett see in TSMC?</p><p>Perhaps, as Tom Russo, a partner at Gardner, Russo & Quinn, which owns Berkshire Hathaway shares, said, he believes Berkshire's reason for increasing its stake in TSMC is...<b>\"Berkshire Hathaway believes the world cannot live without products manufactured by TSMC.\"</b></p><p><b>Leading technological advantages</b></p><p>As the world's largest chip manufacturer, TSMC holds over 55% of the global chip foundry market share.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>, AVGO, Samsung and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>The space agency is also on its client list. With 7nm and 5nm processes accounting for as much as 85% and 90% respectively, TSMC possesses key technologies and has become the undisputed leader.</p><p>TSMC also ranks among the top in the industry in the most advanced 3-nanometer manufacturing process, and has already achieved mass production this quarter.</p><p>At this pace of progress, if its formidable rival Samsung continues to be mired in yield issues, TSMC may directly establish a monopoly in the 3-nanometer market, and Apple is likely to \"grab the first spot\" and become its first customer, with seven other customers following closely behind.</p><p>Moreover, even though it has maintained a fairly clear lead, TSMC has not slowed down at all.<b>TSMC President Wei Zhejia promised in August of this year that 2nm could guarantee mass production by 2025.</b></p><p>TSMC successfully withstood the decline in demand in the consumer electronics market precisely because of its huge technological advantages. Even though smartphone and PC manufacturers joined the \"order cancellation wave\" one after another, TSMC did not suffer the same fierce storm as its peers. In the first quarter of this year, HPC (high-performance computing) accounted for more of TSMC's revenue than smartphones for the first time.</p><p>Therefore, although Gartner, the world's most authoritative IT research and consulting firm, has predicted that the semiconductor industry will shrink by 2.5% in 2023, 2023 will actually be a year of growth for TSMC.</p><p><b>Strong financial performance</b></p><p>Excellent profit margins and a sound balance sheet are also sharp weapons in TSMC's hands, becoming its powerful \"moat\".</p><p>Looking back over the past five years, TSMC's average gross profit margin has reached 50%, and it is currently expected to climb further to 55% in 2022, breaking through the shackles of the industry's downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62828e0c179cedeb75b62f1108c72201\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Seekingalpha</p><p>Over the past decade, TSMC's revenue has jumped from $15 billion to over $60 billion. This is largely due to the growth of TSMC's market share and the growth of the end markets it serves, such as smartphones, high-performance computers and data centers, IoT devices, and automobiles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7917e912c2262fc056d468a5a9dcb98\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSMC's revenue over the past decade (Image source: Seekingalpha)</p><p>It's worth mentioning that TSMC's average quarterly revenue growth rate over the past decade has been about 16.8%, and this figure has recently doubled to 36.65%, leaving Intel and Samsung far behind. Intel's average quarterly growth rate was only 2.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>This would be 5.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ad3ddf4a9b725536a6605d9b46a611\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Comparison of quarterly earnings growth rates of TSMC, Intel, and Samsung Electronics (Image source: Seekingalpha)</p><p>Furthermore, TSMC's robust balance sheet makes it unattainable for its competitors.</p><p>Although the chip industry is capital-intensive, often requiring tens of billions of yuan in investment to develop new technologies and production capacity, TSMC's balance sheet maintains high liquidity.</p><p><b>Compared to long-term debt, TSMC has more cash and short-term investments.</b>Cash accounts for more than 25% of total assets. As of the end of the third quarter of this year, TSMC held $47 billion in cash and short-term investments, compared to $27 billion in total debt.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9227d80c1a1db0246a58fd706ad877a1\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSMC's cash, short-term investments, and long-term debt trends so far this year (Source: Seekingalpha)</p><p>This also means that when the industry is in a slump, an excellent financial situation can help TSMC stabilize its position, boldly choose its path forward, and withstand unknown risks.</p><p>The latest results once again reflect TSMC's strong financial performance.</p><p>TSMC's revenue in October reached NT$210.266 billion (approximately RMB47.941 billion), an increase of 56.3% compared to the same period last year. From January to October this year, cumulative revenue was approximately NT$1.85 trillion (approximately RMB421.8 billion), an increase of 44% year-on-year. In addition, in the third quarter, TSMC's gross profit rose to 60.4%, a 1.3 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter, higher than the previous gross profit margin guidance of 57.5%-59.5%.</p><p><b>Attractive valuation levels</b></p><p>The attractive valuation is also considered a key factor in Buffett's preference for TSMC.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, after experiencing a significant pullback/retracement this year, TSMC's stock price is trading at a relatively low level. Currently, TSMC's enterprise value multiple (EV/EBITDA) is only 7.8 times, and its forward P/E is even lower, at about 7 times, far below the company's average level over the past 10 years.</p><p>Moreover, compared with the valuation levels of many leading Western semiconductor companies, TSMC is \"far behind\". The valuations of Dutch companies ASML, Nvidia, AMD, and Intel are 30 times, 37 times, 20 times, and 15 times, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723eb6b27a203fc08418d96945153cfa\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Seekingalpha</p><p>Nobunaga Chai, special research advisor at the Photovoltaic Industries Association (PIDA), summarized the reasons why TSMC is heavily invested in by Warren Buffett, stating:</p><p>As a value investing guru, Buffett only selects companies with optimistic long-term prospects, good financial condition and profitability, and relatively low P/E (PE) and price-to-book ratios (PB).<b>TSMC passed all the tests when its stock price fell below the threshold in the third quarter.</b>Moreover, according to Buffett, he believes that during periods of high inflation, investors should pay attention to two key business characteristics when looking for targets:<b>(1) It has the ability to easily raise prices; (2) The ability to conduct more business without excessive expenditure.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What did Buffett see when he bought chip stocks for the first time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat did Buffett see when he bought chip stocks for the first time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-16 22:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>When a company's stock price halves this year, it is likely to lose the favor of investors and may even be ruthlessly removed from the list.</p><p>However, when a company can buck the trend with strong performance, a drop in its stock price can actually help it become the focus of the spotlight, and it may even find that Buffett is already sitting in the front row of the audience.</p><p>This is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>。</p><p>Following its positive outlook from the industry, it has the potential to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>After seizing the semiconductor throne, TSMC single-handedly not only brought chip stocks to Buffett's \"favor\" for the first time, but also directly elevated itself to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway's top ten holdings became<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It is the second largest technology stock after the company, with a position of $4.1 billion (approximately RMB 29 billion).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceb4a594da02960a53ca7ef15c3d5fbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: whalewisdom</p><p><b>This first bold move stems from long-term \"secret observation,\" and the Oracle of Omaha's attention to TSMC may have lasted as long as ten years.</b></p><p>Media reports indicate that Nobunaga Chai, special research advisor to the Photoelectric Technology Industry Association (PIDA), stated:</p><p>When Buffett took action, he had already spent at least a decade monitoring the financial performance and fundamentals of his target companies. So, after spending ten years, what kind of \"moat\" did Buffett see in TSMC?</p><p>Perhaps, as Tom Russo, a partner at Gardner, Russo & Quinn, which owns Berkshire Hathaway shares, said, he believes Berkshire's reason for increasing its stake in TSMC is...<b>\"Berkshire Hathaway believes the world cannot live without products manufactured by TSMC.\"</b></p><p><b>Leading technological advantages</b></p><p>As the world's largest chip manufacturer, TSMC holds over 55% of the global chip foundry market share.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>, AVGO, Samsung and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>The space agency is also on its client list. With 7nm and 5nm processes accounting for as much as 85% and 90% respectively, TSMC possesses key technologies and has become the undisputed leader.</p><p>TSMC also ranks among the top in the industry in the most advanced 3-nanometer manufacturing process, and has already achieved mass production this quarter.</p><p>At this pace of progress, if its formidable rival Samsung continues to be mired in yield issues, TSMC may directly establish a monopoly in the 3-nanometer market, and Apple is likely to \"grab the first spot\" and become its first customer, with seven other customers following closely behind.</p><p>Moreover, even though it has maintained a fairly clear lead, TSMC has not slowed down at all.<b>TSMC President Wei Zhejia promised in August of this year that 2nm could guarantee mass production by 2025.</b></p><p>TSMC successfully withstood the decline in demand in the consumer electronics market precisely because of its huge technological advantages. Even though smartphone and PC manufacturers joined the \"order cancellation wave\" one after another, TSMC did not suffer the same fierce storm as its peers. In the first quarter of this year, HPC (high-performance computing) accounted for more of TSMC's revenue than smartphones for the first time.</p><p>Therefore, although Gartner, the world's most authoritative IT research and consulting firm, has predicted that the semiconductor industry will shrink by 2.5% in 2023, 2023 will actually be a year of growth for TSMC.</p><p><b>Strong financial performance</b></p><p>Excellent profit margins and a sound balance sheet are also sharp weapons in TSMC's hands, becoming its powerful \"moat\".</p><p>Looking back over the past five years, TSMC's average gross profit margin has reached 50%, and it is currently expected to climb further to 55% in 2022, breaking through the shackles of the industry's downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62828e0c179cedeb75b62f1108c72201\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Seekingalpha</p><p>Over the past decade, TSMC's revenue has jumped from $15 billion to over $60 billion. This is largely due to the growth of TSMC's market share and the growth of the end markets it serves, such as smartphones, high-performance computers and data centers, IoT devices, and automobiles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7917e912c2262fc056d468a5a9dcb98\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSMC's revenue over the past decade (Image source: Seekingalpha)</p><p>It's worth mentioning that TSMC's average quarterly revenue growth rate over the past decade has been about 16.8%, and this figure has recently doubled to 36.65%, leaving Intel and Samsung far behind. Intel's average quarterly growth rate was only 2.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>This would be 5.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ad3ddf4a9b725536a6605d9b46a611\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Comparison of quarterly earnings growth rates of TSMC, Intel, and Samsung Electronics (Image source: Seekingalpha)</p><p>Furthermore, TSMC's robust balance sheet makes it unattainable for its competitors.</p><p>Although the chip industry is capital-intensive, often requiring tens of billions of yuan in investment to develop new technologies and production capacity, TSMC's balance sheet maintains high liquidity.</p><p><b>Compared to long-term debt, TSMC has more cash and short-term investments.</b>Cash accounts for more than 25% of total assets. As of the end of the third quarter of this year, TSMC held $47 billion in cash and short-term investments, compared to $27 billion in total debt.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9227d80c1a1db0246a58fd706ad877a1\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSMC's cash, short-term investments, and long-term debt trends so far this year (Source: Seekingalpha)</p><p>This also means that when the industry is in a slump, an excellent financial situation can help TSMC stabilize its position, boldly choose its path forward, and withstand unknown risks.</p><p>The latest results once again reflect TSMC's strong financial performance.</p><p>TSMC's revenue in October reached NT$210.266 billion (approximately RMB47.941 billion), an increase of 56.3% compared to the same period last year. From January to October this year, cumulative revenue was approximately NT$1.85 trillion (approximately RMB421.8 billion), an increase of 44% year-on-year. In addition, in the third quarter, TSMC's gross profit rose to 60.4%, a 1.3 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter, higher than the previous gross profit margin guidance of 57.5%-59.5%.</p><p><b>Attractive valuation levels</b></p><p>The attractive valuation is also considered a key factor in Buffett's preference for TSMC.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, after experiencing a significant pullback/retracement this year, TSMC's stock price is trading at a relatively low level. Currently, TSMC's enterprise value multiple (EV/EBITDA) is only 7.8 times, and its forward P/E is even lower, at about 7 times, far below the company's average level over the past 10 years.</p><p>Moreover, compared with the valuation levels of many leading Western semiconductor companies, TSMC is \"far behind\". The valuations of Dutch companies ASML, Nvidia, AMD, and Intel are 30 times, 37 times, 20 times, and 15 times, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723eb6b27a203fc08418d96945153cfa\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Seekingalpha</p><p>Nobunaga Chai, special research advisor at the Photovoltaic Industries Association (PIDA), summarized the reasons why TSMC is heavily invested in by Warren Buffett, stating:</p><p>As a value investing guru, Buffett only selects companies with optimistic long-term prospects, good financial condition and profitability, and relatively low P/E (PE) and price-to-book ratios (PB).<b>TSMC passed all the tests when its stock price fell below the threshold in the third quarter.</b>Moreover, according to Buffett, he believes that during periods of high inflation, investors should pay attention to two key business characteristics when looking for targets:<b>(1) It has the ability to easily raise prices; (2) The ability to conduct more business without excessive expenditure.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3675167\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c2a3e5a129f96410f8e57e1dc840bde","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","TSM":"台积电","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3675167","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1116759935","content_text":"当一家公司股价在年内一度腰斩，大概率会失去投资者的宠爱，甚至被无情地从名单上抹去。然而当一家公司能凭借强劲业绩逆势向上，股价跌破关口反倒可助其成为舞台聚光灯下的焦点，甚至它会发现，巴菲特已然坐在观众席前列。这就是台积电。继被业内看好有望击败三星和英特尔，勇夺半导体王座之后，台积电凭借一己之力，不仅令芯片股首次获得巴菲特“垂青”，自己也直接跃升为伯克希尔哈撒韦前十大重仓股，成为苹果公司之后的第二大科技股，仓位达到41亿美元（约合人民币近290亿元）。图片来源：whalewisdom首次大胆出手，源自长期“暗中观察”，股神对台积电的关注，可能已长达十年之久。媒体称，光电科技工业协进会（PIDA）的特别研究顾问Nobunaga Chai表示：当巴菲特采取行动时，他已经至少花了十年时间，来监控目标公司的财务表现和基本面情况。所以，巴菲特耗费十年光阴，究竟从台积电看到了什么“护城河”？或许正如拥有伯克希尔股份的Gardner, Russo&Quinn的合伙人Tom Russo所说，他认为伯克希尔增持台积电的理由是“伯克希尔相信世界离不开台积电生产的产品”。领先的技术优势作为全球规模最大的芯片制造商，台积电在全球芯片代工市场占据55%以上的份额，高通、英伟达、AVGO、三星以及美国航空航天局都位列其客户名单。在7纳米制程和5纳米制程工艺的占比更是分别高达85%和90%，台积电手握关键技术，成为无可争议的领导者。在最为先进的3纳米制程工艺上，台积电同样位列行业前列，已在本季度实现量产。在这种前进速度之下，如果劲敌三星继续深陷良率问题，那么台积电或将在3纳米上直接形成垄断地位，苹果很可能“抢得头彩”，成为它第一个客户，另有七大客户紧随其后。而且即便已经保持相当明显的领先优势，台积电丝毫没有放慢脚步。台积电总裁魏哲家已经在今年8月承诺，2纳米可以保证在2025年量产。台积电也正是凭借巨大的技术优势，成功抵挡住消费电子市场的需求颓势，即使智能手机和PC厂商接连加入“砍单潮”，台积电也未如同行一般遭受猛烈风暴。在今年一季度，HPC（高性能计算）在台积电营收中的占比首次超过智能手机。因此，尽管全球最具权威的IT研究与顾问咨询公司Gartner已经预计半导体行业将在2023年萎缩2.5%，但于台积电而言，2023年反倒是增长之年。强劲的财务表现出色的利润率和稳健的资产负债表同样是台积电手中利刃，成为其强悍的“护城河”。回顾过去五年，台积电的平均毛利润高达50%，目前预计在2022年将进一步攀升至55%，一举冲破行业下行周期的禁锢。图片来源：Seekingalpha而在过去十年间，台积电的营收也从150亿美元跃升至超过600亿美元。这在很大程度上得益于台积电市场份额的增长，以及其所服务的终端市场的增长，例如智能手机、高性能计算机和数据中心、物联网设备、汽车等。台积电过去十年营收（图片来源：Seekingalpha）值得一提的是，台积电过去十年的平均单季业绩增长率约为16.8%，而这个数字在近期更是直接翻番达到36.65%，将英特尔和三星远远甩在身后。英特尔的平均单季增长率仅为2.9%，三星电子则为5.3%。台积电、英特尔、三星电子单季业绩增速对比（图片来源：Seekingalpha）此外，稳健的资产负债表也令台积电的竞争对手可望而不可即。虽然芯片行业属于资本密集型，动辄需投入数百亿资金用于开发新技术及新产能，但是台积电的资产负债表保持高流动性。相比于长期债务，台积电拥有更多的现金和短期投资，其中现金占总资产比例超过25%。截至今年三季度末，台积电持有470亿美元的现金和短期投资，相比之下债务总额为270亿美元。今年迄今为止，台积电现金及短期投资、长期债务趋势（来源：Seekingalpha）这也意味着，当行业发展陷入低迷期时，出色的财务状况可以帮助台积电稳住地位，勇于选定前进方面并可抵御未知风险。最新业绩也再度反映了台积电强劲的财务表现。台积电10月营收高达2102.66亿元新台币（约合479.41亿元人民币），较去年同期增加了56.3%。今年1-10月累计营收约为1.85万亿元新台币（约合4218亿元人民币），同比增加44%。另外在三季度，台积电毛利润上行至60.4%，环比增长1.3个百分点，高于此前57.5%-59.5%的毛利率指引。诱人的估值水平充满吸引力的估值也被认为是巴菲特青睐台积电的关键因素。正如前文提及，在今年经历大幅回撤之后，台积电股价的交易价值相对处于低位。目前台积电的企业价值倍数（EV/EBITDA）仅为7.8倍，远期市盈率甚至更低，约为7倍，远低于公司过去10年的平均水平。而且和西方众多领先半导体公司的估值水平相比，台积电更是“相差甚远”。荷兰ASML、英伟达、AMD和英特尔的估值分别为30倍、37倍、20倍和15倍。图片来源：Seekingalpha光电科技工业协进会（PIDA）的特别研究顾问Nobunaga Chai总结台积电被巴菲特重仓原因时表示：作为价值投资大师，巴菲特只选择长期前景乐观、财务状况及盈利能力良好、市盈率 (PE) 和市账率 (PB) 均相对较低的公司比率，而台积电在第三季度股价跌破关口时通过了所有测试。而且按照巴菲特的观点，他认为在大通胀时期，投资者在寻找标的时应注重两大商业特征：（1）拥有轻松提高价格的能力；（2） 能够在不过度支出的情况下开展更多业务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963090772,"gmtCreate":1668551479396,"gmtModify":1676538072841,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963090772","repostId":"1151505719","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151505719","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668512921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151505719?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-15 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Besides selling BYD, what else did Buffett do in the third quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151505719","media":"财经杂志","summary":"巴菲特最新的持仓与调仓数据似乎正越来越超乎投资者的预期。","content":"<p><div>There is an almost unchanging logic in Buffett's investment philosophy: in addition to the stock price growth potential, the stocks he buys must also have good dividend payout capabilities. By Zhang Yun | Warren Buffett's latest holdings and portfolio adjustments seem to be increasingly exceeding investors' expectations. On November 14, 2022, Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, released its holdings data as of the end of the third quarter of this year – the 13F filing. In the third quarter, the company invested $4.1 billion (approximately RMB 28.881 billion) to buy TSMC, which had recently been \"canceled\". This is Berkshire Hathaway's largest purchase in the third quarter...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HmW3S5ZLqMJju045LRpnKw\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"caijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Besides selling BYD, what else did Buffett do in the third quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBesides selling BYD, what else did Buffett do in the third quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">财经杂志</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-15 19:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>There is an almost unchanging logic in Buffett's investment philosophy: in addition to the stock price growth potential, the stocks he buys must also have good dividend payout capabilities. By Zhang Yun | Warren Buffett's latest holdings and portfolio adjustments seem to be increasingly exceeding investors' expectations. On November 14, 2022, Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, released its holdings data as of the end of the third quarter of this year – the 13F filing. In the third quarter, the company invested $4.1 billion (approximately RMB 28.881 billion) to buy TSMC, which had recently been \"canceled\". This is Berkshire Hathaway's largest purchase in the third quarter...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HmW3S5ZLqMJju045LRpnKw\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HmW3S5ZLqMJju045LRpnKw\">财经杂志</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ecc14db02762fcb82cdbb76e654301","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HmW3S5ZLqMJju045LRpnKw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151505719","content_text":"巴菲特的投资理念中有一个几乎不变的逻辑，那就是买入的股票除了股价具备增长潜力，还必须有良好的分红能力。文 | 张云巴菲特最新的持仓与调仓数据似乎正越来越超乎投资者的预期。2022年11月14日，巴菲特执掌的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公布了截至今年三季度末持仓数据——即13F文件，该公司在三季度出资41亿美元（约合288.81亿元人民币）买进了不久前遭遇“砍单”事件的台积电。这是伯克希尔·哈撒韦三季度买入最多的股票。该公司前五大买入标的还有西方石油、雪佛龙、路易斯安那太平洋。同时，伯克希尔·哈撒韦三季度前五大减持股分别是：美国合众银行、动视暴雪、纽约梅隆银行、克罗格以及地产投资信托Store Capital。11月11日香港联合交易所公布的文件显示，伯克希尔·哈撒韦再度出售578万股比亚迪H股股份，套现金额约11.38亿港元。这是伯克希尔·哈撒韦年内的第四次有公开数据的比亚迪减持行为。根据减持均价粗略估算，今年该公司约减持了25.18亿港元（约合22.64亿元人民币）的比亚迪H股。以持股比例来算，伯克希尔·哈撒韦对比亚迪的持股已经从今年6月30日中报披露时的占H股总股本的20.49%，下降至如今的16.62%。比亚迪10月销售数据显示，该公司10月产量220107辆，同比增长147.23%，环比增长7.43%；销量217816辆，同比增长142.19%，环比增长8.23%，产销数据依然亮眼。同时比亚迪披露的投资者关系活动文件显示，进入11月后，该公司已经密集接待了十批机构投资者进行调研，频率较前几个月大幅增加。伯克希尔·哈撒韦披露的三季度持仓数据，引发市场投资者的关注，主要集中在两个方面：一是买入台积电的逻辑；二是减持比亚迪的逻辑。市场人士普遍认为，巴菲特购入台积电，相当于认同未来芯片在各行各业中的重要性。13F文件发布后的11月15日，叠加隔夜中美首脑会晤的利好，A股中的半导体公司开始发力，Wind（万得）半导体指数（886063.WI）全天上涨4.86%，成交金额达到825.77亿元。至于巴菲特为何减持比亚迪，和合首创（香港）执行董事陈达对《财经》记者表示，并不需要过度的解读，“估值高了就卖，也是多年的投资了，收益颇丰。”买入台积电，释放什么信号？台积电是今年争议相当大的一家上市公司。根据2021年数据，台积电前十大客户营收贡献中，苹果（APPL.US）公司占据绝对优势地位，该公司对台积电的营收贡献占比约为25.93%，第二大客户联发科占比只有5.80%。今年7月，外媒报道称台积电遭苹果、英伟达、AMD三大核心客户削减订单，其中，最大客户苹果削减了10%，AMD传闻削减了2万片7nm（纳米）及6nm晶圆。台积电对该消息不予置评，但当时其股价一夜下跌5.81%。11月初，又有消息称，由于3nm制程大客户临时取消订单，台积电大幅减少供应链订单，最多高达四五成，涵盖再生晶圆、关键耗材、设备等领域。台积电再次不回应该消息，只对外表示，3nm制程进度无改变。下游供应商方面则对外称，台积电的订单在三季度末确实有转弱。台积电并不是苹果产业链中唯一遭遇“砍单”的上市公司，歌尔股份（002241.SZ）同期也宣布了遭遇“砍单”，天风国际分析师郭明錤称，歌尔股份被砍的是高端无线耳机AirPods Pro2，停产比较可能源于生产问题，而非需求问题。高盛早前的一份研究报告显示，台积电在今年10月的分析师电话会议上，态度比此前的电话会议更为保守，“明确的说，台积电承认它看到了来自需求疲弱的影响。”在该电话会议上，台积电管理层表示将进一步把2022年的资本支出下降到360亿美元左右，此前外界一直认为台积电今年资本支出将保持在400亿美元。高盛认为，该资本支出削减计划比预期提前了，“此前我们预计削减计划在2023年”。悲观的情绪在产业链上下游弥漫，业内人士纷纷感叹这是半导体行业的艰难时刻，台积电股价也从今年1月的143.02美元高位一直下跌到最近的72.80美元附近，最低曾报59.43美元，截至11月14日数据，台积电从高位下跌了44.18%。以最低点计算，下跌幅度则有53.78%。在此情形下，巴菲特出手了。三季度中，伯克希尔·哈撒韦买入41亿美元、约6006万股的台积电。整个三季度，台积电股价下跌了26.61%，均价为83.25美元左右。这是巴菲特又一次大举买入科技股，不少人将其对台积电的投资与当初买入苹果的投资相提并论。一位伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东公开表示，该笔投资意味着伯克希尔·哈撒韦相信世界离不开台积电生产的产品。一位科技行业的分析师则对《财经》记者表示，该笔投资说明巴菲特在逆势布局苹果产业链的上游企业，“苹果是近年巴菲特最大手笔的科技投资，其丰厚的分红与回购给股东带来了巨大收益。在巴菲特的投资理念中有一个几乎不变的逻辑，那就是买入的股票除了股价具备增长潜力，还必须有良好的分红能力。”台积电是否与苹果一样具备良好的持续分红能力？Wind数据显示，近十年间，台积电在中国台湾地区的上市主体每年都有现金股利的分配，有时甚至会进行季度、半年度分红。台积电近三年在美股中的上市主体分红率为7.49%，苹果公司近十年分红率为16.94%。（台积电美股的分红数据）2022年巴菲特在致股东的信中曾经盛赞苹果的回购魔法，“对苹果的增持并没有花费伯克希尔的资金，而是苹果的回购起了作用。”但值得注意的是，台积电并不像苹果一样热衷于回购。今年10月，台积电管理层在三季度业绩发布后曾表示，台积电目前没有回购计划。减持比亚迪，浮盈近25倍除了逆势买入台积电，巴菲特近期另外一件颇受关注的投资行动则是持续减持比亚迪H股。根据香港联合交易所披露的数据，今年8月，巴菲特减持了133.10万股比亚迪H股，平均出售价格为277.1港元/股，约套现3.69亿港元；9月，减持了171.60万股，平均出售价格为262.72港元/股，约套现4.5亿港元；11月1日，减持了329.70万股，平均出售价格为169.87港元/股，约套现5.6亿港元；11月11日，减持了578.25万股，平均出售价格为196.99港元/股，约套现11.38亿港元。巴菲特持续减持背后是比亚迪亮眼的产销数据。天风证券表示，比亚迪10月新能源汽车产销量分别达22.01万辆和21.78万辆，延续9月超越20万辆的成绩，并双双创下历史新高。产销比约101.05%，产销数量接近，基本处于满销状态。在10月汽车市场需求减弱的背景下，比亚迪仍稳定住了优秀的产销增速。9月比亚迪新能源汽车动力电池及储能电池装机总量约为8.610GWh(千兆瓦时）。10月装机总量达10.188GWh，环比增长18%。2022年累计装机总量约为67.681GWh。各条战线产销数据一片大好，为何巴菲特依然持续减持？陈达认为，也许是估值合适，目前比亚迪的股价反映了比较乐观的预期，“价值投资也不是持有到永远”。国信证券一份汽车行业的研究报告显示，中信一级行业中的汽车行业整体PE（市盈率）为 42.74倍（截至11月11日），在所有中信一级行业中排第六，估值处于中上水平。纵向来看，汽车行业市盈率自 2021 年底以来经历大幅回调，从高位 55倍 以上的估值下修了约10%，目前已逐渐恢复至 2021 年初的水平。（中信一级行业汽车行业PE走势）但从十年的维度来看，汽车行业的估值仍在历史高位区间震荡。就比亚迪个股来说，比亚迪股份（H股）最高PE曾经在300倍左右，近期下降到50倍，近两年的平均PE高达149.23倍。（比亚迪近年PE变化）分红方面，比亚迪股份在近十年保持了11.37%的分红率，较台积电更高。但后者的PE在今年震荡下行的市场中，跌到了最新的12.75倍，而苹果公司的最新PE为23.64倍。以估值和分红综合考虑下，台积电显然要更契合巴菲特的建仓喜好。有市场观点认为，美国通胀见顶后美股的吸引力提升，巴菲特减持比亚迪是为了回归美国市场抄底。曾在华尔街任职的陈达并不认同该观点，“伯克希尔·哈撒韦不缺现金，没有这种必要，比亚迪中的资金并不多。”根据伯克希尔·哈撒韦最新的业绩报告，该公司现金和短期投资两项一共有超过1000亿美元。（伯克希尔·哈撒韦三季报中的现金流状况）按照香港联合交易所公布的数据显示，目前伯克希尔·哈撒韦对比亚迪的持股约为1.91亿股，11月15日，这部分股权的市值为373.37亿港元（约合47.72亿美元）。巴菲特2008年入股比亚迪的时候，每股成本约为8港元，今年四次减持平均价格已经涨到了每股207.75港元左右，十四年间光是股票单价就已经上涨了2496%，投资收益已经相当丰厚。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969576396,"gmtCreate":1668481943616,"gmtModify":1676538063862,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969576396","repostId":"1133541975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133541975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668470691,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133541975?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-15 08:04","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | US stocks accelerated their decline in late trading, with the Nasdaq falling over 1%, while popular Chinese concept stocks outperformed.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133541975","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股收跌，纳指跌超1%，中概股多上涨；②伯克希尔哈撒韦、高瓴等多公司披露三季度持仓；③欧洲天然气暴涨20%；④OPEC年内第五次下调石油需求预期，美油重挫。海外市场1、投资者权衡美联储政策","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① US stocks closed lower overnight, with the Nasdaq falling by more than 1%, while most Chinese concept stocks rose; ②<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Several companies, including Hathaway and Hillhouse Capital, disclosed their holdings in the third quarter; ③ European natural gas prices surged by 20%; ④ OPEC lowered its oil demand forecast for the fifth time this year, causing a sharp drop in US oil prices. Overseas markets</p><p>1. Investors weighed the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy, with US stocks closing lower and the Nasdaq down more than 1%.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday. Markets continue to assess signs of cooling U.S. inflation and the possibility of the Federal Reserve shifting its aggressive monetary policy stance. Several major retailers will release their earnings reports this week. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.12%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.89%.</p><p>Most large technology stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell 2.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It rose 3.15%.</p><p>The pharmaceutical and non-ferrous metals sectors rose, with Moderna up more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUE\">Nucor Steel</a>It rose by more than 2%. Automobile manufacturing and energy stocks saw the largest declines, with Lucid falling more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">Plug Energy</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up more than 3%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index gaining 0.47%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>Up more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>It rose over 6%, and JD.com rose over 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>A slight increase.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">Luckin Coffee</a>It fell by more than 1%.</p><p>3. European stocks generally closed higher on Monday, with the German DAX 30 index rising 0.62%.</p><p>Major European stock indices closed higher on Monday, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.62% and France's CAC40 up 0.22%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.92%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.49%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil futures closed down 3.5% on Monday.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.09, or 3.5%, to settle at $85.87 a barrel. The futures rose 2.9% last Friday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced a downward revision of its 2022 global crude oil demand forecast, putting pressure on crude oil prices.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed 0.4% higher on Monday, hitting a new high since mid-August.</p><p>Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $7.50, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,776.90 an ounce, their highest closing price since August 16.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. A cold wave forecast caused European natural gas prices to surge by 20%, and US natural gas prices also saw unusual fluctuations.</p><p>European natural gas futures prices surged on Monday local time, mainly due to weather forecasts indicating cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, reduced supply from Norway, Europe's largest natural gas exporter, has also driven up prices.</p><p>Data shows that the price of European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures surged by 20%. Weather forecasting agency Maxar predicts that after a long period of unusually warm weather, some parts of Europe will turn cold towards the end of this week, with temperatures in Berlin expected to drop below freezing. This should force people to start using heaters, thereby boosting demand for natural gas. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas futures fluctuated sharply, rising as much as 8% on Monday.</p><p>2. The G20 Business Summit called for unity and cooperation to promote global recovery.</p><p>The two-day G20 Business Summit concluded on the 14th in Bali, Indonesia. The participants called on the international community to demonstrate a spirit of solidarity and cooperation, promote a global \"common and robust recovery,\" and achieve inclusive and sustainable economic growth.</p><p>At the closing ceremony, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said that the world is facing multiple crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, food, energy, and finance, but there are always solutions to crises. He called on everyone to remain optimistic and work together to promote global recovery.</p><p>3. Federal Reserve Second Chairman Brainard: Slowing the pace of rate hike in the short term may be appropriate.</p><p>On Monday afternoon local time, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Lael Brainard attended a media event, becoming another Fed official to signal that the Fed is slowing down its pace of rate hike.</p><p>Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve delivered its fourth consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike, bringing the Federal Funds rate range to 3.75%-4%. As the expected peak interest rate draws ever closer, coinciding with last week's CPI data falling more than expected, the entire market is eagerly awaiting any signals of slowing the pace of rate hike or even halting the rate hike.</p><p>Brainard emphasized, \"It's appropriate to potentially slow down rate hike in the short term. But I think what really needs to be emphasized is that the Fed has done a lot of work, but there is still more to be done.\"</p><p>4. OPEC lowered its oil demand forecast for the fifth time this year.</p><p>Following its significant downward revision of its global oil demand forecast in its October monthly report, OPEC reiterated in its latest report that, given macroeconomic challenges such as high inflation and rising interest rates, it will lower its oil demand forecast for this year for the fifth time since April of this year, and will also lower its forecast for next year.</p><p>In its monthly report released on Monday, November 14, OPEC stated that global oil demand in 2022 is expected to increase by 2.6% year-on-year to 2.55 million barrels per day, a decrease of 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month's forecast, while its oil demand growth forecast for next year has also been lowered to 2.24 million barrels per day, a decrease of 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month's forecast.</p><p>5. The commissioning of the world's largest floating wind farm to power oil and gas platforms could spark controversy.</p><p>On Monday local time, Norwegian state oil company Equinor announced that the first unit of the Hywind Tampen project, dubbed the \"world's largest floating wind farm,\" began generating electricity last weekend.</p><p>In his statement, Equinor Executive Vice President Geir Tungesvik mentioned several \"firsts\": \"I am proud that the Hywind Tampen project has started production. This is Norway's first offshore floating wind farm, the world's largest, and the world's first wind farm to power oil and gas production facilities.\"</p><p>6. The German government nationalized its former Gazprom subsidiary, and the Polish government also took action.</p><p>On Monday (November 14) local time, the German Ministry of Economic Affairs announced that the government will acquire 100% of the shares of SEFE (Securing Energy for Europe GmbH, formerly known as Gazprom Germania), a German subsidiary of the former Gazprom, and will increase its loans to the company to €13.8 billion.</p><p>On the same day, the Polish government also announced that it would take over the assets of Gazprom's Polish subsidiary, Europolgaz, which is responsible for supplying gas through Poland via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline.</p><p>7. European Central Bank Vice President Kindos: The European Central Bank will again rate hike.</p><p>European Central Bank Vice President Kindos stated that the ECB will conduct rate hike again; Inflation remains too high and is expected to exceed the target level for some time to come; To date, inflation expectations have remained under control; The European Central Bank's policy must focus on reducing support for demand; Financial support measures must be temporary and targeted.</p><p>8. Following the FTX collapse, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks dropped to its lowest level this year.</p><p>The sudden collapse of FTX has spread the crisis throughout the cryptocurrency space and disrupted the once-existing links between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets, meaning that the influence of cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin on global markets may be waning.</p><p>Data shows that Bitcoin fell by 23% last week, the largest monthly drop since June last year. During the same period, the S&P 500 index rose 5.9%. A study indicates that the correlation between the two has dropped to its lowest level this year. In addition, the performance gap between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has reached its largest level since 2020.</p><p>9. London loses its title as Europe's largest stock market; Paris becomes the new king.</p><p>According to data compiled by the media, in US dollars, the total market capitalization of the French stock market is currently approximately $2.823 trillion, exceeding the total market capitalization of the UK stock market of about $2.821 trillion. Data shows that since the Brexit referendum in 2016, the market capitalization gap between the British and French stock markets has narrowed from approximately $1.5 trillion.</p><p>Britain relinquished its title as \"Europe's largest stock market\" to France as concerns about economic growth dragged down British assets, and adjustments to China's pandemic prevention and control policies boosted French luxury goods stocks. Exchange rate fluctuations are also part of the reason.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces spoke by phone with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United</p><p>Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny posted on social media on the 14th local time that he had spoken by phone with U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley that day. Zaluzhne stated that the Ukrainian military will not accept any negotiations, agreements, or compromises.</p><p>2. First report since the Russia-Ukraine conflict indicates that the Turkish government is hosting secret talks between the US and Russia.</p><p>Russia Today (RT) reported on the 14th, citing Kommersant, that the Turkish government was hosting secret talks between the United States and Russia on the 14th, a claim that a Kremlin spokesperson would neither confirm nor deny.</p><p>Russian media reported that on the 14th, representatives from the United States and Russia held secret talks in Ankara, the capital of Türkiye. Sources say the Russian representative is Sergei Naryshkin, head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. A White House official said that CIA Director Burns is visiting Türkiye and will convey to the head of Russian intelligence about the potential consequences should Russia use nuclear weapons.</p><p>This meeting marks the first time high-level officials from the United States and Russia have held face-to-face talks since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>3. The EU has provided Ukraine with military equipment worth at least 8 billion euros.</p><p>EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell revealed on the 14th local time that the EU has provided Ukraine with weapons and military equipment worth at least 8 billion euros.</p><p>4. The United States sanctions individuals, organizations, and aircraft linked to Russia.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department has released a new round of sanctions targeting individuals, organizations, and aircraft with ties to Russia. There are 14 people on the sanctions list in this round, including several relatives of Senator Suleiman Klimov. The sanctions also target 28 organizations registered in Switzerland, Russia, the UAE, the Virgin Islands, and Luxembourg, as well as eight aircraft.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1192072806\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon is also reportedly planning to lay off 10,000 employees.</a></p><p>Multiple sources familiar with the matter revealed that Amazon plans to lay off approximately 10,000 employees in its enterprise and technology divisions, expected to begin as early as this week. If true, it would be the largest layoff ever for the world's largest online retailer. Sources familiar with the matter said the layoffs were mainly concentrated in Amazon's devices division, including its voice assistant Alexa. In addition, retail and human resources departments are also key targets for layoffs. They added that the scale of the layoffs has not yet been finalized and, if kept at 10,000, will account for 3% of the company's total workforce.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283283191\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon founder Jeff Bezos plans to donate most of his wealth during his lifetime.</a></p><p>In an interview, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said he plans to donate the vast majority of his wealth during his lifetime to combat climate change and support those who can unite humanity in the face of deep social and political divisions. Bezos did not disclose specific details; this is the first time he has announced plans to donate most of his assets. Previously, Bezos had been criticized for not signing The Giving Pledge. The Giving Pledge, launched in 2010 by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, aims to encourage the world's wealthy to give at least half of their net worth to charity, whether they are alive or dead. It should be noted that a donation pledge is a public commitment to donate, not a legal contract.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>When the business environment allows, temporarily dismissed employees will be recalled.</p><p>FedEx stated that the temporary layoffs in some U.S. markets were implemented to address the negative impact of the current business environment on the company's order volume. Some eligible employees will receive permanent transfer opportunities to other markets with recruitment needs; The company will continue to assess the commercialization situation and recall temporarily laid-off employees when the business environment permits.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283428020\" target=\"_blank\">Bury, the prototype of the \"big short seller\" who liquidated his positions in the second quarter, returned to the market.</a></p><p>According to a 13F filing released by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday (Eastern Time), Scion Asset Management, the hedge fund run by Michael Berry, the protagonist of the movie \"The Big Short,\" began increasing its holdings in the third quarter, bringing its total publicly disclosed holdings to $41.3 million. Scion has further increased its holdings in GEO Group, and has also acquired five new targets: Qurate Retail Group, private prison company CoreCivic, rocket manufacturer Aerojet Rocketdyne, Charter Communications, and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFG.AU\">Liberty</a>Latin America.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195286651\" target=\"_blank\">Hillhouse Capital's HHLR disclosed its third-quarter US stock holdings, with Chinese concept stocks and new energy stocks being key areas of allocation.</a></p><p>On November 15th, Beijing time, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) website showed that HHLR Advisors released its latest U.S. stock holdings data.</p><p>In the third quarter, HHLR made concentrated adjustments and allocations around Chinese concept stocks and new energy, reducing its holdings in companies invested in in the primary market, such as Full Truck Alliance, to lock in profits; At the same time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary Creatures</a>Nine Chinese concept stocks, including others, underwent increased holdings through increased holdings and new purchases. Of HHLR's top ten holdings, seven are Chinese concept stocks. In addition, HHLR remains optimistic about new energy and has increased its holdings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DQ\">Daquan New Energy</a>with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">Jinko Solar</a>。</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283284429\" target=\"_blank\">Tiger Global Management's Q3 holdings: JD.com remains its largest holding, with increased holdings in Alphabet, Microsoft, and others.</a></p><p>According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tiger Global Management filed its third-quarter position report (13F) as of September 30, 2022. According to statistics, Tiger Global Management's total market value of holdings reached $10.893 billion in the fourth quarter, with the top ten holdings accounting for approximately 64.64% of the market value. The top five holdings are JD.com, Microsoft, Now Services, Meta Platforms, and SEA. In terms of changes in holding ratios, the top five buy targets are:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>Alphabet, Uber, and Microsoft; The top five selling targets included CrowdStrike, Nu Holdings, JD.com, and XPeng Motors.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283284320\" target=\"_blank\">Reports indicate that Apple will not significantly increase advertising on the iPhone at this time.</a></p><p>According to The Information, sources familiar with The matter say Apple is not seeking to add more advertising to The iPhone and is satisfied with current revenue growth. Apple launched two new ad slots on the App Store last month: the \"Today\" tag and at the bottom of other developers' App listings product pages. Apple has suspended the display of certain controversial ad categories. Apple has also been criticized by the advertising industry for introducing an app tracking transparency policy that weakens the power of third-party ad networks to share user data. Apple executives denied this, stating that their goals were customer privacy and user experience.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283236809\" target=\"_blank\">Berkshire Hathaway built long positions in TSMC and increased its holdings in Occidental Petroleum and Chevron in the third quarter.</a></p><p>The 13F report shows that Berkshire Hathaway built long positions in TSMC, building materials manufacturer Louisiana-Pacific (LP), and Jefferies (JEF) in the third quarter. Clearance Store Capital; Increase holdings in Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, RH, Paramount Global, and Celaness; Share reduction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>New York Bank Mellon<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KR\">Kroger</a>General Motors, etc.; Top holdings include Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Chevron,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>。</p><p>9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283328086\" target=\"_blank\">Are you trying to save the cryptocurrency world after defeating FTX? Zhao Changpeng stated that an industry recovery fund will be established to help projects facing liquidity crises.</a></p><p>Last Friday, FTX, facing a multi-billion dollar funding gap after Binance abandoned its acquisition of its peer FTX, announced it had filed for bankruptcy protection. On the same day, Zhao Changpeng warned that the impact of the FTX collapse had not yet been fully felt, more companies would go bankrupt, and the cryptocurrency world would face a situation similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>On Monday, November 14, Eastern Time, Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao announced on Twitter: \"To mitigate further negative impacts from FTX, Binance will establish an industry recovery fund to help projects that were originally strong but are facing liquidity crises.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | US stocks accelerated their decline in late trading, with the Nasdaq falling over 1%, while popular Chinese concept stocks outperformed.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | US stocks accelerated their decline in late trading, with the Nasdaq falling over 1%, while popular Chinese concept stocks outperformed.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-15 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① US stocks closed lower overnight, with the Nasdaq falling by more than 1%, while most Chinese concept stocks rose; ②<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Several companies, including Hathaway and Hillhouse Capital, disclosed their holdings in the third quarter; ③ European natural gas prices surged by 20%; ④ OPEC lowered its oil demand forecast for the fifth time this year, causing a sharp drop in US oil prices. Overseas markets</p><p>1. Investors weighed the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy, with US stocks closing lower and the Nasdaq down more than 1%.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday. Markets continue to assess signs of cooling U.S. inflation and the possibility of the Federal Reserve shifting its aggressive monetary policy stance. Several major retailers will release their earnings reports this week. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.12%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.89%.</p><p>Most large technology stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell 2.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It rose 3.15%.</p><p>The pharmaceutical and non-ferrous metals sectors rose, with Moderna up more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUE\">Nucor Steel</a>It rose by more than 2%. Automobile manufacturing and energy stocks saw the largest declines, with Lucid falling more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">Plug Energy</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up more than 3%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index gaining 0.47%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>Up more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>It rose over 6%, and JD.com rose over 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>A slight increase.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">Luckin Coffee</a>It fell by more than 1%.</p><p>3. European stocks generally closed higher on Monday, with the German DAX 30 index rising 0.62%.</p><p>Major European stock indices closed higher on Monday, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.62% and France's CAC40 up 0.22%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.92%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.49%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil futures closed down 3.5% on Monday.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.09, or 3.5%, to settle at $85.87 a barrel. The futures rose 2.9% last Friday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced a downward revision of its 2022 global crude oil demand forecast, putting pressure on crude oil prices.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed 0.4% higher on Monday, hitting a new high since mid-August.</p><p>Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $7.50, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,776.90 an ounce, their highest closing price since August 16.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. A cold wave forecast caused European natural gas prices to surge by 20%, and US natural gas prices also saw unusual fluctuations.</p><p>European natural gas futures prices surged on Monday local time, mainly due to weather forecasts indicating cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, reduced supply from Norway, Europe's largest natural gas exporter, has also driven up prices.</p><p>Data shows that the price of European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures surged by 20%. Weather forecasting agency Maxar predicts that after a long period of unusually warm weather, some parts of Europe will turn cold towards the end of this week, with temperatures in Berlin expected to drop below freezing. This should force people to start using heaters, thereby boosting demand for natural gas. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas futures fluctuated sharply, rising as much as 8% on Monday.</p><p>2. The G20 Business Summit called for unity and cooperation to promote global recovery.</p><p>The two-day G20 Business Summit concluded on the 14th in Bali, Indonesia. The participants called on the international community to demonstrate a spirit of solidarity and cooperation, promote a global \"common and robust recovery,\" and achieve inclusive and sustainable economic growth.</p><p>At the closing ceremony, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said that the world is facing multiple crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, food, energy, and finance, but there are always solutions to crises. He called on everyone to remain optimistic and work together to promote global recovery.</p><p>3. Federal Reserve Second Chairman Brainard: Slowing the pace of rate hike in the short term may be appropriate.</p><p>On Monday afternoon local time, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Lael Brainard attended a media event, becoming another Fed official to signal that the Fed is slowing down its pace of rate hike.</p><p>Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve delivered its fourth consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike, bringing the Federal Funds rate range to 3.75%-4%. As the expected peak interest rate draws ever closer, coinciding with last week's CPI data falling more than expected, the entire market is eagerly awaiting any signals of slowing the pace of rate hike or even halting the rate hike.</p><p>Brainard emphasized, \"It's appropriate to potentially slow down rate hike in the short term. But I think what really needs to be emphasized is that the Fed has done a lot of work, but there is still more to be done.\"</p><p>4. OPEC lowered its oil demand forecast for the fifth time this year.</p><p>Following its significant downward revision of its global oil demand forecast in its October monthly report, OPEC reiterated in its latest report that, given macroeconomic challenges such as high inflation and rising interest rates, it will lower its oil demand forecast for this year for the fifth time since April of this year, and will also lower its forecast for next year.</p><p>In its monthly report released on Monday, November 14, OPEC stated that global oil demand in 2022 is expected to increase by 2.6% year-on-year to 2.55 million barrels per day, a decrease of 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month's forecast, while its oil demand growth forecast for next year has also been lowered to 2.24 million barrels per day, a decrease of 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month's forecast.</p><p>5. The commissioning of the world's largest floating wind farm to power oil and gas platforms could spark controversy.</p><p>On Monday local time, Norwegian state oil company Equinor announced that the first unit of the Hywind Tampen project, dubbed the \"world's largest floating wind farm,\" began generating electricity last weekend.</p><p>In his statement, Equinor Executive Vice President Geir Tungesvik mentioned several \"firsts\": \"I am proud that the Hywind Tampen project has started production. This is Norway's first offshore floating wind farm, the world's largest, and the world's first wind farm to power oil and gas production facilities.\"</p><p>6. The German government nationalized its former Gazprom subsidiary, and the Polish government also took action.</p><p>On Monday (November 14) local time, the German Ministry of Economic Affairs announced that the government will acquire 100% of the shares of SEFE (Securing Energy for Europe GmbH, formerly known as Gazprom Germania), a German subsidiary of the former Gazprom, and will increase its loans to the company to €13.8 billion.</p><p>On the same day, the Polish government also announced that it would take over the assets of Gazprom's Polish subsidiary, Europolgaz, which is responsible for supplying gas through Poland via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline.</p><p>7. European Central Bank Vice President Kindos: The European Central Bank will again rate hike.</p><p>European Central Bank Vice President Kindos stated that the ECB will conduct rate hike again; Inflation remains too high and is expected to exceed the target level for some time to come; To date, inflation expectations have remained under control; The European Central Bank's policy must focus on reducing support for demand; Financial support measures must be temporary and targeted.</p><p>8. Following the FTX collapse, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks dropped to its lowest level this year.</p><p>The sudden collapse of FTX has spread the crisis throughout the cryptocurrency space and disrupted the once-existing links between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets, meaning that the influence of cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin on global markets may be waning.</p><p>Data shows that Bitcoin fell by 23% last week, the largest monthly drop since June last year. During the same period, the S&P 500 index rose 5.9%. A study indicates that the correlation between the two has dropped to its lowest level this year. In addition, the performance gap between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has reached its largest level since 2020.</p><p>9. London loses its title as Europe's largest stock market; Paris becomes the new king.</p><p>According to data compiled by the media, in US dollars, the total market capitalization of the French stock market is currently approximately $2.823 trillion, exceeding the total market capitalization of the UK stock market of about $2.821 trillion. Data shows that since the Brexit referendum in 2016, the market capitalization gap between the British and French stock markets has narrowed from approximately $1.5 trillion.</p><p>Britain relinquished its title as \"Europe's largest stock market\" to France as concerns about economic growth dragged down British assets, and adjustments to China's pandemic prevention and control policies boosted French luxury goods stocks. Exchange rate fluctuations are also part of the reason.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces spoke by phone with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United</p><p>Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny posted on social media on the 14th local time that he had spoken by phone with U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley that day. Zaluzhne stated that the Ukrainian military will not accept any negotiations, agreements, or compromises.</p><p>2. First report since the Russia-Ukraine conflict indicates that the Turkish government is hosting secret talks between the US and Russia.</p><p>Russia Today (RT) reported on the 14th, citing Kommersant, that the Turkish government was hosting secret talks between the United States and Russia on the 14th, a claim that a Kremlin spokesperson would neither confirm nor deny.</p><p>Russian media reported that on the 14th, representatives from the United States and Russia held secret talks in Ankara, the capital of Türkiye. Sources say the Russian representative is Sergei Naryshkin, head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. A White House official said that CIA Director Burns is visiting Türkiye and will convey to the head of Russian intelligence about the potential consequences should Russia use nuclear weapons.</p><p>This meeting marks the first time high-level officials from the United States and Russia have held face-to-face talks since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>3. The EU has provided Ukraine with military equipment worth at least 8 billion euros.</p><p>EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell revealed on the 14th local time that the EU has provided Ukraine with weapons and military equipment worth at least 8 billion euros.</p><p>4. The United States sanctions individuals, organizations, and aircraft linked to Russia.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department has released a new round of sanctions targeting individuals, organizations, and aircraft with ties to Russia. There are 14 people on the sanctions list in this round, including several relatives of Senator Suleiman Klimov. The sanctions also target 28 organizations registered in Switzerland, Russia, the UAE, the Virgin Islands, and Luxembourg, as well as eight aircraft.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1192072806\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon is also reportedly planning to lay off 10,000 employees.</a></p><p>Multiple sources familiar with the matter revealed that Amazon plans to lay off approximately 10,000 employees in its enterprise and technology divisions, expected to begin as early as this week. If true, it would be the largest layoff ever for the world's largest online retailer. Sources familiar with the matter said the layoffs were mainly concentrated in Amazon's devices division, including its voice assistant Alexa. In addition, retail and human resources departments are also key targets for layoffs. They added that the scale of the layoffs has not yet been finalized and, if kept at 10,000, will account for 3% of the company's total workforce.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283283191\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon founder Jeff Bezos plans to donate most of his wealth during his lifetime.</a></p><p>In an interview, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said he plans to donate the vast majority of his wealth during his lifetime to combat climate change and support those who can unite humanity in the face of deep social and political divisions. Bezos did not disclose specific details; this is the first time he has announced plans to donate most of his assets. Previously, Bezos had been criticized for not signing The Giving Pledge. The Giving Pledge, launched in 2010 by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, aims to encourage the world's wealthy to give at least half of their net worth to charity, whether they are alive or dead. It should be noted that a donation pledge is a public commitment to donate, not a legal contract.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>When the business environment allows, temporarily dismissed employees will be recalled.</p><p>FedEx stated that the temporary layoffs in some U.S. markets were implemented to address the negative impact of the current business environment on the company's order volume. Some eligible employees will receive permanent transfer opportunities to other markets with recruitment needs; The company will continue to assess the commercialization situation and recall temporarily laid-off employees when the business environment permits.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283428020\" target=\"_blank\">Bury, the prototype of the \"big short seller\" who liquidated his positions in the second quarter, returned to the market.</a></p><p>According to a 13F filing released by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday (Eastern Time), Scion Asset Management, the hedge fund run by Michael Berry, the protagonist of the movie \"The Big Short,\" began increasing its holdings in the third quarter, bringing its total publicly disclosed holdings to $41.3 million. Scion has further increased its holdings in GEO Group, and has also acquired five new targets: Qurate Retail Group, private prison company CoreCivic, rocket manufacturer Aerojet Rocketdyne, Charter Communications, and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LFG.AU\">Liberty</a>Latin America.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1195286651\" target=\"_blank\">Hillhouse Capital's HHLR disclosed its third-quarter US stock holdings, with Chinese concept stocks and new energy stocks being key areas of allocation.</a></p><p>On November 15th, Beijing time, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) website showed that HHLR Advisors released its latest U.S. stock holdings data.</p><p>In the third quarter, HHLR made concentrated adjustments and allocations around Chinese concept stocks and new energy, reducing its holdings in companies invested in in the primary market, such as Full Truck Alliance, to lock in profits; At the same time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary Creatures</a>Nine Chinese concept stocks, including others, underwent increased holdings through increased holdings and new purchases. Of HHLR's top ten holdings, seven are Chinese concept stocks. In addition, HHLR remains optimistic about new energy and has increased its holdings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DQ\">Daquan New Energy</a>with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">Jinko Solar</a>。</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283284429\" target=\"_blank\">Tiger Global Management's Q3 holdings: JD.com remains its largest holding, with increased holdings in Alphabet, Microsoft, and others.</a></p><p>According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tiger Global Management filed its third-quarter position report (13F) as of September 30, 2022. According to statistics, Tiger Global Management's total market value of holdings reached $10.893 billion in the fourth quarter, with the top ten holdings accounting for approximately 64.64% of the market value. The top five holdings are JD.com, Microsoft, Now Services, Meta Platforms, and SEA. In terms of changes in holding ratios, the top five buy targets are:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>Alphabet, Uber, and Microsoft; The top five selling targets included CrowdStrike, Nu Holdings, JD.com, and XPeng Motors.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283284320\" target=\"_blank\">Reports indicate that Apple will not significantly increase advertising on the iPhone at this time.</a></p><p>According to The Information, sources familiar with The matter say Apple is not seeking to add more advertising to The iPhone and is satisfied with current revenue growth. Apple launched two new ad slots on the App Store last month: the \"Today\" tag and at the bottom of other developers' App listings product pages. Apple has suspended the display of certain controversial ad categories. Apple has also been criticized by the advertising industry for introducing an app tracking transparency policy that weakens the power of third-party ad networks to share user data. Apple executives denied this, stating that their goals were customer privacy and user experience.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283236809\" target=\"_blank\">Berkshire Hathaway built long positions in TSMC and increased its holdings in Occidental Petroleum and Chevron in the third quarter.</a></p><p>The 13F report shows that Berkshire Hathaway built long positions in TSMC, building materials manufacturer Louisiana-Pacific (LP), and Jefferies (JEF) in the third quarter. Clearance Store Capital; Increase holdings in Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, RH, Paramount Global, and Celaness; Share reduction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>New York Bank Mellon<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KR\">Kroger</a>General Motors, etc.; Top holdings include Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Chevron,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>。</p><p>9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2283328086\" target=\"_blank\">Are you trying to save the cryptocurrency world after defeating FTX? Zhao Changpeng stated that an industry recovery fund will be established to help projects facing liquidity crises.</a></p><p>Last Friday, FTX, facing a multi-billion dollar funding gap after Binance abandoned its acquisition of its peer FTX, announced it had filed for bankruptcy protection. On the same day, Zhao Changpeng warned that the impact of the FTX collapse had not yet been fully felt, more companies would go bankrupt, and the cryptocurrency world would face a situation similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>On Monday, November 14, Eastern Time, Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao announced on Twitter: \"To mitigate further negative impacts from FTX, Binance will establish an industry recovery fund to help projects that were originally strong but are facing liquidity crises.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133541975","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股收跌，纳指跌超1%，中概股多上涨；②伯克希尔哈撒韦、高瓴等多公司披露三季度持仓；③欧洲天然气暴涨20%；④OPEC年内第五次下调石油需求预期，美油重挫。海外市场1、投资者权衡美联储政策走向美股收跌纳指跌超1%美股周一收跌。市场继续评估美国通胀降温的迹象与美联储转变其激进货币政策立场的可能性。多家大型零售商将在本周公布财报。截止收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.63%，纳斯达克指数跌1.12%，标普500指数跌0.89%。大型科技股多数下跌，微软、亚马逊跌超2%，Meta Platforms、苹果跌超1%，特斯拉跌2.6%，奈飞上涨3.15%。医药、有色金属板块走高，Moderna涨超4%，辉瑞涨超3%，纽柯钢铁涨超2%。汽车制造、能源股跌幅居前，Lucid跌超5%，普拉格能源跌超3%，通用汽车跌超2%。2、热门中概股多数上涨京东涨超3%热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.47%。满帮涨超9%，每日优鲜涨超6%，京东涨超3%，百度、唯品会涨超2%，小鹏汽车、哔哩哔哩涨超1%，网易、阿里巴巴、拼多多小幅上涨。理想汽车跌超5%，蔚来跌超3%，爱奇艺跌超2%，微博、瑞幸咖啡跌超1%。3、欧股周一收盘普涨德国DAX30指数涨0.62%欧股主要指数周一收盘普涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.62%，法国CAC40指数涨0.22%，英国富时100指数涨0.92%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.49%。4、周一美国WTI原油期货收跌3.5%纽约商品交易所12月交割的西德州中质原油期货价格下跌3.09美元，跌幅为3.5%，收于每桶85.87美元。上周五该期货上涨2.9%。石油输出国组织（OPEC）宣布下调2022年全球原油需求预期，令原油价格承压。5、纽约黄金期货周一收高0.4% 创8月中旬以来新高纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格上涨7.50美元，涨幅为0.4%，报收于每盎司1776.90美元，创8月16日以来的最高收盘价。国际宏观1、一份寒潮预告致使欧洲天然气暴涨20% 美国天然气也出现异动当地时间周一，欧洲天然气期货价格大幅飙升，主要原因是天气预报显示气温将转冷。与此同时，来自欧洲最大天然气出口国挪威的供应减少也推动了价格的上涨。数据显示，欧洲基准荷兰TTF天然气期货价格暴涨20%。天气预报机构Maxar预计，在经历了长时间异常温暖的天气后，临近本周末，欧洲的某些地区将会变冷，柏林的气温预计将降至零度以下。这应该会迫使人们开始使用取暖器，从而提振天然气的需求。与此同时，美国天然气期货大幅异动，周一一度大涨8%。2、二十国集团工商峰会呼吁团结合作推动全球复苏为期两天的二十国集团工商峰会14日在印度尼西亚巴厘岛闭幕。与会各方呼吁国际社会展现团结合作精神，推动全球“共同复苏、强劲复苏”，并实现经济发展的包容性和可持续增长。印尼总统佐科在闭幕式上说，世界正面临新冠疫情、粮食、能源和金融等多重危机，但危机总有解决之道。他呼吁大家保持乐观，共同推动全球复苏。3、美联储二把手布雷纳德：短期内放慢加息步伐可能是合适的当地时间周一午后，美联储副主席莱尔·布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）出席媒体活动，成为又一位释放“美联储放慢加息步伐”信号的美联储官员。本月初美联储祭出连续第四次75基点加息，联邦基金利率的区间已经达到3.75%-4%。随着预期中的峰值利率愈行愈近，恰逢上周CPI数据超预期回落，目前整个市场都在翘首期盼任何有关放慢加息速度，乃至停止加息的信号。布雷纳德强调：“有可能在短期内放缓加息速度是合适的。但我认为真正需要强调的是，美联储已经做了很多工作，但接下来还有更多的事情等着去完成。”4、OPEC年内第五次下调今年石油需求预期继在10月月报中大幅下调全球石油需求预期后，OPEC在最新月报中再度强调，鉴于通胀高企、利率上行等宏观经济挑战，将自今年四月以来第五次下调今年石油需求预期，并且同步下调明年预期。在11月14日周一公布的OPEC月报中，该组织表示，2022年全球石油需求预计将同比增加2.6%至255万桶/日，较上月预期减少10万桶/日，而明年的石油需求增长也被下调至224万桶/日，较上月预期减少10万桶/日。5、全球最大浮动式风电场投产 为油气平台供电恐引发争议当地时间周一，挪威国家石油公司（Equinor）发布公告称，被称为“全球最大浮动式风电场”的Hywind Tampen项目，首台机组已经于上周末实现发电。在声明中，Equinor执行副总裁Geir Tungesvik一口气说了好多个“第一次”：“我很自豪Hywind Tampen项目开始投产，这是挪威第一个离岸浮动式风电农场，也是全球最大的一个，还是全球第一个为油气生产装置供电的风电农场。”6、德国政府将前俄气子公司国有化 波兰政府也出手了当地时间周一(11月14日)，德国经济部表示，政府将持有前俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)德国子公司SEFE(Securing Energy for Europe GmbH，原名称Gazprom Germania)100%股份，并将其对该公司的贷款增至138亿欧元。同一天，波兰政府也宣布，将接管Gazprom波兰子公司Europolgaz的资产，后者负责亚马尔-欧洲天然气管道在波兰境内的供气。7、欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧洲央行将再次加息欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，欧洲央行将再次加息；通胀依旧太高了，高通胀预计将在一段时间内超过目标水平；迄今为止，通胀预期仍受控；欧洲央行的政策必须聚焦于减少对需求的支持；财政支持措施必须是暂时的而且要有针对性。8、FTX崩盘后 比特币与美股相关性降至今年以来最低水平FTX的突然崩盘令危机在加密货币领域中蔓延开来，并对加密货币与其他金融资产之间曾经存在的联系造成破坏，这意味着以比特币为首的加密货币对全球市场的影响力可能正在减弱。数据显示，比特币上周累计下跌了23%，为去年6月以来的最大单月跌幅。同一时间内，标普500指数则上涨了5.9%。一项研究指出，二者之间的相关性已降至今年以来的最低水平。此外，比特币与纳斯达克指数之间的表现差距也达到了2020年以来的最大水平。9、伦敦痛失欧洲最大股市桂冠 新王是巴黎根据媒体编制的一项数据，以美元计算，目前法国股市总市值约为2.823万亿美元，超过2.821万亿美元左右的英国股市总市值。数据显示，在2016年英国脱欧公投以来，英法两国股市的市值差距从约1.5万亿美元一直缩小。由于对经济增长的担忧拖累了英国资产、再加上中国疫情防控政策的调整提振了法国奢侈品股，英国将“欧洲最大股票市场”这一头衔拱手让给了法国。汇率变动也是部分原因。俄乌局势1、乌军总司令与美军参谋长联席会议主席通电话乌克兰武装部队总司令扎卢日内当地时间14日在社交媒体发文称，他当天与美军参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利通了电话。扎卢日内称，乌克兰军方不会接受任何谈判、协议或妥协的决定。2、俄乌冲突后首次 报道称土耳其政府正主持美俄两国秘密会谈今日俄罗斯电视台（RT）网站14日援引《生意人报》消息称，14日当天，土耳其政府正在主持美俄两国的秘密会谈，而克里姆林宫发言人对这一说法表示既不会确认也不会否认。俄媒称，14日，美俄双方代表在土耳其首都安卡拉举行了秘密会谈。消息人士称，俄方代表是俄罗斯对外情报局局长谢尔盖·纳雷什金。美国白宫一名官员表示，美国中央情报局局长伯恩斯正在土耳其访问，他将向俄罗斯情报部门负责人传达有关一旦俄罗斯使用核武器可能造成的后果。这次会谈是自俄乌冲突爆发以来，美俄两国高级别官员首次进行面对面会谈。3、欧盟已向乌克兰提供了价值至少80亿欧元的军事装备欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表博雷利当地时间14日透露，欧盟已向乌克兰提供了价值至少80亿欧元的武器和军事装备。4、美国制裁与俄罗斯有联系的个人、组织和航空器美国财政部公布新一轮制裁名单，制裁对象为与俄罗斯有联系的个人、组织机构和航空器。本轮制裁名单上有14人，包括参议员苏莱曼·克里莫夫的几名亲属。制裁对象还包括28家注册地为瑞士、俄罗斯、阿联酋、维尔京群岛和卢森堡的组织机构，以及8架航空器。公司新闻1、亚马逊据称也在酝酿万人裁员多位知情人士透露，亚马逊计划在企业和技术部门裁员约1万人，预计最快在本周开始。若属实，对于这家全球最大的在线零售商来说，是有史以来规模最大的一次裁员。知情人士们表示，裁员主要集中在亚马逊的设备部门，包括语音助手Alexa。除此以外，零售和人力资源的部门也是裁员的重点目标。他们补充称，裁员的规模还没有最终敲定，如果保持在1万人，将占公司总员工数的3%。2、亚马逊创始人贝索斯：计划在有生之年捐出大部分财富亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯在接受采访时表示，他计划在有生之年捐出自己的绝大部分财富，将其用于应对气候变化，并支持那些在社会和政治深度分歧面前，能让人类团结起来的人。贝索斯并未透露具体细节，这是他首次宣布计划捐出大部分资产。此前，贝索斯因没有签署“捐赠誓言”（ The Giving Pledge）而遭到批评。捐赠誓言由比尔·盖茨和沃伦·巴菲特启动，成立于2010年，旨在鼓励全球富人将至少一半的净资产用于慈善事业，无论是在他们有生之年还是去世时。需要说明的是，捐赠誓言是公开的捐赠意向承诺，并非法律合同。3、联邦快递：当商业环境允许 将召回暂时解雇的员工联邦快递称，在美国部分市场实施暂时解雇员工的措施是为了应对当前商业环境对公司订单量造成了负面影响；一些符合条件的员工将获得永久调动机会，前往其他有招聘需求的市场；公司将继续评估商业化境，当商业环境允许的时候，召回暂时解雇的员工。4、二季度清仓的“大空头”原型伯里重返市场根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)美东时间周一披露的13F文件，电影《大空头》的原型人物迈克尔·伯里掌管的对冲基金公司Scion Asset Management在三季度开始加仓了，公开的整体持仓规模上升至4130万美元。Scion再度加仓了GEO Group，Scion还新进了5个标的，分别为Qurate Retail集团、私人监狱公司CoreCivic、火箭制造商Aerojet Rocketdyne、Charter Communications和Liberty Latin America。5、高瓴旗下HHLR三季度美股持仓披露 中概股与新能源是配置重点北京时间11月15日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）网站显示，HHLR Advisors公布了最新美股持仓数据。三季度，HHLR围绕中概股和新能源进行集中调整和配置，减持满帮等一级市场投资的公司，锁定收益；同时对传奇生物等9只中概股进行了增持、新进买入等加仓操作。HHLR前十大重仓股中，中概股占七席。此外，HHLR继续看好新能源，加仓大全新能源与晶科能源。6、老虎环球基金Q3持仓：京东仍为第一重仓股 增持Alphabet、微软等根据美国证券交易委员会披露，老虎环球基金递交了截至2022年9月30日的第三季度持仓报告（13F）。据统计，老虎环球基金第四季度持仓总市值达108.93亿美元，前十大持仓股市值占比约为64.64%。前五大重仓股是京东、微软、现在服务公司、Meta Platforms和SEA。从持仓比例变化来看，前五大买入标的是Datadog、Workday、Alphabet、Uber和微软；前五大卖出标的包括CrowdStrike、Nu Holdings、京东、和小鹏汽车。7、消息称苹果目前不会在iPhone上大幅增加广告据The Information报道，知情人士称，苹果并不寻求在iPhone上增加更多的广告，并对目前的收入增长感到满意。苹果于上月在App Store推出了两个新的广告位，即“Today”标签和在其他开发者的应用列表产品页面底部。苹果已经暂停了显示某些有争议的广告类别。苹果还因推出应用跟踪透明政策而受到广告业的批评，该政策削弱了第三方广告网络分享用户数据的权力。苹果公司高管对此予以否认，并称以客户隐私和用户体验为目标。8、伯克希尔三季度建仓做多台积电增持西方石油、雪佛龙13F报告显示，伯克希尔三季度建仓做多台积电、建材制造商Louisiana-Pacific（简称LP）、以及杰弗瑞（JEF）；清仓Store Capital；增持西方石油、雪佛龙、RH、派拉蒙全球、以及Celaness；减持动视暴雪、纽银梅隆、克罗格、通用汽车等；重仓股包括苹果、美国银行、雪佛龙、可口可乐、以及美国运通。9、击溃FTX后要拯救币圈？赵长鹏称将设行业复苏基金 帮助陷入流动性危机项目上周五，在币安放弃收购同行FTX后，面临数十亿美元资金缺口的FTX宣布申请破产保护。当天赵长鹏警告，FTX崩盘的影响还未全面显现，会有更多公司破产，币圈面临的类似2008年金融危机。美东时间11月14日周一，币安CEO赵长鹏发推宣布：“为减少FTX进一步引发的连带负面影响，币安将设立一只行业复苏基金，帮助那些原本强劲但陷入流动性危机的项目。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"03086":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"UGAZ":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"QGmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"NGmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969006093,"gmtCreate":1668295177212,"gmtModify":1676538036722,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969006093","repostId":"2282301544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2282301544","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1668231437,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2282301544?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-12 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Far more complex than Lehman Brothers, a single graphic illustrates the collapse of the FTX empire.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2282301544","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间，但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下，人们可能要等更长的时间，才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。11月11日周五美股盘前，FTX根据美国破产法第","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Lehman Brothers' report took a full eighteen months to compile, but its structure seemed much simpler and straightforward. In contrast, people may have to wait longer to gain a more detailed and precise understanding of FTX's overall architecture.</b>On Friday, November 11, before the US stock market opened, FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the US federal court under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code.</p><p>Also filing for bankruptcy are cryptocurrency hedge fund Alameda Research, the suspected instigator of the storm, and FTX.US, an independent US platform that claims its operations and liquidity were completely unaffected by the collapse of FTX.com. They, along with approximately 130 subsidiaries that have filed for bankruptcy, are collectively known as the \"FTX Group\".</p><p><b>With this, SBF's vast capital empire completely collapsed.</b></p><p>Many people compare the collapse of FTX to the \"Lehman moment\" in the cryptocurrency world; however, the complexity of its empire structure far exceeds that of Lehman Brothers.</p><p>On Friday, the media compiled a chart showing the complex structure of the entire FTX Group as of March of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faff3d1e797206ee63b2f266cbacbc05\" tg-width=\"5512\" tg-height=\"3148\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71967588ad9260cb10c7f37073f62c85\" tg-width=\"1544\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There are several companies that need special attention:</p><p><ul><li>FTX Trading LTD, incorporated in Antigua and Barbuda, is the underlying company identified in FTX's legal disclaimer, and the FTX Exchange is held by FTX Trading LTD.</li><li>West Realm Shires Inc. is a U.S.-oriented subsidiary (i.e., FTX.us) that is also protected by the State of Delaware;</li><li>FTX Ventures Ltd, a venture capital fund registered in the Bahamas, is wholly owned by Paper Bird, an unknown holding company in Delaware, which in turn is wholly owned by SBF; Paper Bird also appears to hold an 89% stake in FTX Trading LTD and own Alameda's internal corporate loans;</li><li>Located at the bottom left of the chart is the LedgerPrime entity, headquartered in the United States and the Cayman Islands, which originated from FTX's acquisition of hedge fund Ledger Holdings last year. FTX has renamed LedgerPrime's cryptocurrency futures platform to FTX US Derivatives LLC and stated that the remaining business will be reorganized into a family office dedicated to investing in Alameda.</li><li>Salameda Ltd (Hong Kong), which is 100% owned by FTX CFO Jen Chan, appears to be a peripheral entity connected to the Alameda entity through a service agreement.</li></ul>Media reports indicate that due to the fragmented nature of publicly disclosed information, the aforementioned charts may not be entirely accurate, and the full charts should appear in the Chapter 11 bankruptcy review report. It is foreseeable that it will be far more complex than Lehman Brothers.</p><p><b>Lehman Brothers' report took a full eighteen months to compile, but its structure seemed much simpler and straightforward. In contrast, people may have to wait longer to gain a more detailed and precise understanding of FTX's overall architecture.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a13e1970352d5d4149fb123fbf38dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The full list of \"FTX Group\" is as follows:</p><p>1. Alameda Aus Pty Ltd2. Alameda Global Services Ltd.3. Alameda Research (Bahamas) Ltd4. Alameda Research Holdings Inc.5. Alameda Research KK6. Alameda Research LLC7. Alameda Research Ltd8. Alameda Research Pte Ltd9. Alameda Research Yankari Ltd10. Alameda TR Ltd11. Alameda TR Systems S. de R. L.12. Allston Way Ltd13. Altalix Ltd14. Analysis Pte Ltd15. Atlantis Technology Ltd.21. Bancroft Way Ltd28. Battle, Inc.29. Blockfolio Holdings, Inc.30. Blockfolio, Inc.31. Blue Ridge Ltd37. BTLS Limited Tanzania38. Cardinal Ventures Ltd39. Cedar Bay Ltd40. Cedar Grove Technology Services, Ltd.41. Clifton Bay Investments LLC42. Clifton Bay Investments Ltd43. CM-Equity AG44. Corner Stone Staffing45. Cottonwood Grove Ltd46. Cottonwood Technologies Ltd.47. Crypto Bahamas LLC48. DAAG Trading, DMCC49. Deck Technologies Holdings LLC50. Deck Technologies Inc.51. Deep Creek Ltd52. Digital Custody Inc.53. Euclid Way Ltd60. FTX (Gibraltar) Ltd61. FTX Canada Inc62. FTX Certificates GmbH63. FTX Crypto Services Ltd.64. FTX Digital Assets LLC65. FTX Digital Holdings (Singapore) Pte Ltd66. FTX EMEA Ltd.67. FTX Equity Record Holdings Ltd68. FTX Europe AG69. FTX Exchange FZE70. FTX Hong Kong Ltd71. FTX Japan Holdings K.K.72. FTX Japan K.K.73. FTX Japan Services KK74. FTX Flight Inc.75. FTX Marketplace, Inc.76. FTX Products (Singapore) Pte Ltd77. FTX Property Holdings Ltd78. FTX Services Solutions Ltd.79. FTX Structured Products AG80. FTX Switzerland GmbH81. FTX Trading GmbH82. FTX Trading Ltd83. FTX TURKEY TECHNOLOGY AND TRADE JOINT STOCK COMPANY84. FTX US Derivatives LLC85. FTX US Services, Inc.86. FTX US Trading, Inc87. FTX Vault Trust Company88. FTX Ventures Ltd89. FTX Ventures Partnership90. FTX Zuma Ltd91. GG Trading Terminal Ltd92. Global Compass Dynamics Ltd.93. Good Luck Games, LLC94. Goodman Investments Ltd.95. Hannam Group Inc96. Hawaii Digital Assets Inc.97. Hilltop Technology Services LLC98. Hive Empire Trading Pty Ltd99. Innovation Ltd100. Island Bay Ventures Inc101. K-DNA Financial Services Ltd102. Killarney Lake Investments Ltd103. Ledger Holdings Inc.104. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund, LLC105. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Master Fund LP106. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Fund, LLC107. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Master Fund LP108. Ledger Prime LLC109. LedgerPrime Ventures, LP110. Liquid Financial USA Inc.111. LiquidEX LLC112. Liquid Securities Singapore Pte Ltd113. LT Basketball Ltd.114. Maclaurin Investments Ltd.115. Mangrove Cay Ltd116. North Dimension Inc117. North Dimension Ltd118. North Wireless Dimension Inc119. Paper Bird Inc120. Pioneer Street Inc.121. Quoine India Pte Ltd122. Quoine Pte Ltd123. Quoine Vietnam Co. Ltd124. SNG INVESTMENTS INVESTMENT AND CONSULTANCY COMPANY125. Strategy Ark Collective Ltd.126. Technology Services Bahamas Limited127. Tigetwit Ltd129. Verdant Canyon Capital LLC130. West Innovative Barista Ltd.131. West Realm Shires Financial Services Inc.132. West Realm Shires Services Inc.133. Western Concord Enterprises Ltd.134. Zubr Exchange Ltd Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Far more complex than Lehman Brothers, a single graphic illustrates the collapse of the FTX empire.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFar more complex than Lehman Brothers, a single graphic illustrates the collapse of the FTX empire.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-12 13:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Lehman Brothers' report took a full eighteen months to compile, but its structure seemed much simpler and straightforward. In contrast, people may have to wait longer to gain a more detailed and precise understanding of FTX's overall architecture.</b>On Friday, November 11, before the US stock market opened, FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the US federal court under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code.</p><p>Also filing for bankruptcy are cryptocurrency hedge fund Alameda Research, the suspected instigator of the storm, and FTX.US, an independent US platform that claims its operations and liquidity were completely unaffected by the collapse of FTX.com. They, along with approximately 130 subsidiaries that have filed for bankruptcy, are collectively known as the \"FTX Group\".</p><p><b>With this, SBF's vast capital empire completely collapsed.</b></p><p>Many people compare the collapse of FTX to the \"Lehman moment\" in the cryptocurrency world; however, the complexity of its empire structure far exceeds that of Lehman Brothers.</p><p>On Friday, the media compiled a chart showing the complex structure of the entire FTX Group as of March of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faff3d1e797206ee63b2f266cbacbc05\" tg-width=\"5512\" tg-height=\"3148\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71967588ad9260cb10c7f37073f62c85\" tg-width=\"1544\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There are several companies that need special attention:</p><p><ul><li>FTX Trading LTD, incorporated in Antigua and Barbuda, is the underlying company identified in FTX's legal disclaimer, and the FTX Exchange is held by FTX Trading LTD.</li><li>West Realm Shires Inc. is a U.S.-oriented subsidiary (i.e., FTX.us) that is also protected by the State of Delaware;</li><li>FTX Ventures Ltd, a venture capital fund registered in the Bahamas, is wholly owned by Paper Bird, an unknown holding company in Delaware, which in turn is wholly owned by SBF; Paper Bird also appears to hold an 89% stake in FTX Trading LTD and own Alameda's internal corporate loans;</li><li>Located at the bottom left of the chart is the LedgerPrime entity, headquartered in the United States and the Cayman Islands, which originated from FTX's acquisition of hedge fund Ledger Holdings last year. FTX has renamed LedgerPrime's cryptocurrency futures platform to FTX US Derivatives LLC and stated that the remaining business will be reorganized into a family office dedicated to investing in Alameda.</li><li>Salameda Ltd (Hong Kong), which is 100% owned by FTX CFO Jen Chan, appears to be a peripheral entity connected to the Alameda entity through a service agreement.</li></ul>Media reports indicate that due to the fragmented nature of publicly disclosed information, the aforementioned charts may not be entirely accurate, and the full charts should appear in the Chapter 11 bankruptcy review report. It is foreseeable that it will be far more complex than Lehman Brothers.</p><p><b>Lehman Brothers' report took a full eighteen months to compile, but its structure seemed much simpler and straightforward. In contrast, people may have to wait longer to gain a more detailed and precise understanding of FTX's overall architecture.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a13e1970352d5d4149fb123fbf38dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The full list of \"FTX Group\" is as follows:</p><p>1. Alameda Aus Pty Ltd2. Alameda Global Services Ltd.3. Alameda Research (Bahamas) Ltd4. Alameda Research Holdings Inc.5. Alameda Research KK6. Alameda Research LLC7. Alameda Research Ltd8. Alameda Research Pte Ltd9. Alameda Research Yankari Ltd10. Alameda TR Ltd11. Alameda TR Systems S. de R. L.12. Allston Way Ltd13. Altalix Ltd14. Analysis Pte Ltd15. Atlantis Technology Ltd.21. Bancroft Way Ltd28. Battle, Inc.29. Blockfolio Holdings, Inc.30. Blockfolio, Inc.31. Blue Ridge Ltd37. BTLS Limited Tanzania38. Cardinal Ventures Ltd39. Cedar Bay Ltd40. Cedar Grove Technology Services, Ltd.41. Clifton Bay Investments LLC42. Clifton Bay Investments Ltd43. CM-Equity AG44. Corner Stone Staffing45. Cottonwood Grove Ltd46. Cottonwood Technologies Ltd.47. Crypto Bahamas LLC48. DAAG Trading, DMCC49. Deck Technologies Holdings LLC50. Deck Technologies Inc.51. Deep Creek Ltd52. Digital Custody Inc.53. Euclid Way Ltd60. FTX (Gibraltar) Ltd61. FTX Canada Inc62. FTX Certificates GmbH63. FTX Crypto Services Ltd.64. FTX Digital Assets LLC65. FTX Digital Holdings (Singapore) Pte Ltd66. FTX EMEA Ltd.67. FTX Equity Record Holdings Ltd68. FTX Europe AG69. FTX Exchange FZE70. FTX Hong Kong Ltd71. FTX Japan Holdings K.K.72. FTX Japan K.K.73. FTX Japan Services KK74. FTX Flight Inc.75. FTX Marketplace, Inc.76. FTX Products (Singapore) Pte Ltd77. FTX Property Holdings Ltd78. FTX Services Solutions Ltd.79. FTX Structured Products AG80. FTX Switzerland GmbH81. FTX Trading GmbH82. FTX Trading Ltd83. FTX TURKEY TECHNOLOGY AND TRADE JOINT STOCK COMPANY84. FTX US Derivatives LLC85. FTX US Services, Inc.86. FTX US Trading, Inc87. FTX Vault Trust Company88. FTX Ventures Ltd89. FTX Ventures Partnership90. FTX Zuma Ltd91. GG Trading Terminal Ltd92. Global Compass Dynamics Ltd.93. Good Luck Games, LLC94. Goodman Investments Ltd.95. Hannam Group Inc96. Hawaii Digital Assets Inc.97. Hilltop Technology Services LLC98. Hive Empire Trading Pty Ltd99. Innovation Ltd100. Island Bay Ventures Inc101. K-DNA Financial Services Ltd102. Killarney Lake Investments Ltd103. Ledger Holdings Inc.104. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund, LLC105. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Master Fund LP106. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Fund, LLC107. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Master Fund LP108. Ledger Prime LLC109. LedgerPrime Ventures, LP110. Liquid Financial USA Inc.111. LiquidEX LLC112. Liquid Securities Singapore Pte Ltd113. LT Basketball Ltd.114. Maclaurin Investments Ltd.115. Mangrove Cay Ltd116. North Dimension Inc117. North Dimension Ltd118. North Wireless Dimension Inc119. Paper Bird Inc120. Pioneer Street Inc.121. Quoine India Pte Ltd122. Quoine Pte Ltd123. Quoine Vietnam Co. Ltd124. SNG INVESTMENTS INVESTMENT AND CONSULTANCY COMPANY125. Strategy Ark Collective Ltd.126. Technology Services Bahamas Limited127. Tigetwit Ltd129. Verdant Canyon Capital LLC130. West Innovative Barista Ltd.131. West Realm Shires Financial Services Inc.132. West Realm Shires Services Inc.133. Western Concord Enterprises Ltd.134. Zubr Exchange Ltd Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674794\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1a26bb817de6639ca261862fe02525","relate_stocks":{"BK4007":"制药","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc.","CRCT":"Cricut, Inc.","LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","BK4191":"家用电器","BOLT":"Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.","BK4082":"医疗保健设备","BK4539":"次新股","BK4196":"保健护理服务","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","BK4023":"应用软件","LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","BK4139":"生物科技","ONTF":"ON24, Inc."},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674794","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2282301544","content_text":"雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间，但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下，人们可能要等更长的时间，才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。11月11日周五美股盘前，FTX根据美国破产法第11章向美国联邦法院申请破产保护。一同申请破产的还有疑似风暴的始作俑者——加密货币对冲基金Alameda Research，以及号称运营和流动性完全未受FTX.com崩盘影响的FTX.US美国独立平台。它们连同大约130家申请破产的附属公司被统称为“FTX集团”。就此，SBF的庞大资本帝国彻底陨落。很多人将FTX的崩盘比作币圈的“雷曼时刻”，然而，其帝国构造的复杂程度远远超过了雷曼兄弟。周五，媒体整理了一份图表，图表显示了截至今年3月整个FTX集团的复杂结构。有几家公司需要特别注意：FTX Trading LTD在安提瓜和巴布达注册成立，是FTX法律免责声明中确定的基础公司，FTX交易所就由 FTX Trading LTD 所持有；West Realm Shires Inc是面向美国的子公司（即FTX.us），它还受到特拉华州的保护；在巴哈马注册的风险投资基金FTX Ventures Ltd，由特拉华州一家不知名控股公司 Paper Bird 全资持有，而 Paper Bird 又由SBF全资持有；Paper Bird 似乎还持有FTX Trading LTD 89%的股份，并拥有 Alameda 的公司内部贷款；位于图表左下方的，是总部位于美国和开曼群岛的 LedgerPrime 实体，源于FTX去年对对冲基金 Ledger Holdings 的收购；FTX将 LedgerPrime 的加密货币期货平台重新命名为 FTX US Derivatives LLC，并表示剩余业务将重组成一个家族办公室，专门为 Alameda 进行投资；Salameda Ltd（香港）由FTX的CFO Jen Chan 100%控股，似乎是通过服务协议与 Alameda 实体进行对接的外围机构。媒体表示，由于公开披露的信息是零散的，上述图表不一定完全准确，完整图表应该会在美国破产法第11章的审查报告中出现。可以预先知道的是，其复杂程度要远远超过雷曼兄弟。雷曼兄弟的报告整理花了整整18个月的时间，但其结构看起来要简单直白地多。相比之下，人们可能要等待更长的时间，才能对FTX的整体架构有更为详细和精确的了解。“FTX集团”的完整名单如下：1. Alameda Aus Pty Ltd2. Alameda Global Services Ltd.3. Alameda Research (Bahamas) Ltd4. Alameda Research Holdings Inc.5. Alameda Research KK6. Alameda Research LLC7. Alameda Research Ltd8. Alameda Research Pte Ltd9. Alameda Research Yankari Ltd10. Alameda TR Ltd11. Alameda TR Systems S. de R. L.12. Allston Way Ltd13. Altalix Ltd14. Analisya Pte Ltd15. Atlantis Technology Ltd.21. Bancroft Way Ltd28. Bitvo, Inc.29. Blockfolio Holdings, Inc.30. Blockfolio, Inc.31. Blue Ridge Ltd37. BTLS Limited Tanzania38. Cardinal Ventures Ltd39. Cedar Bay Ltd40. Cedar Grove Technology Services, Ltd41. Clifton Bay Investments LLC42. Clifton Bay Investments Ltd43. CM-Equity AG44. Corner Stone Staffing45. Cottonwood Grove Ltd46. Cottonwood Technologies Ltd.47. Crypto Bahamas LLC48. DAAG Trading, DMCC49. Deck Technologies Holdings LLC50. Deck Technologies Inc.51. Deep Creek Ltd52. Digital Custody Inc.53. Euclid Way Ltd60. FTX (Gibraltar) Ltd61. FTX Canada Inc62. FTX Certificates GmbH63. FTX Crypto Services Ltd.64. FTX Digital Assets LLC65. FTX Digital Holdings (Singapore) Pte Ltd66. FTX EMEA Ltd.67. FTX Equity Record Holdings Ltd68. FTX Europe AG69. FTX Exchange FZE70. FTX Hong Kong Ltd71. FTX Japan Holdings K.K.72. FTX Japan K.K.73. FTX Japan Services KK74. FTX Lend Inc.75. FTX Marketplace, Inc.76. FTX Products (Singapore) Pte Ltd77. FTX Property Holdings Ltd78. FTX Services Solutions Ltd.79. FTX Structured Products AG80. FTX Switzerland GmbH81. FTX Trading GmbH82. FTX Trading Ltd83. FTX TURKEY TEKNOLOJİ VE TİCARET ANONİM ŞİRKET84. FTX US Derivatives LLC85. FTX US Services, Inc.86. FTX US Trading, Inc87. FTX Vault Trust Company88. FTX Ventures Ltd89. FTX Ventures Partnership90. FTX Zuma Ltd91. GG Trading Terminal Ltd92. Global Compass Dynamics Ltd.93. Good Luck Games, LLC94. Goodman Investments Ltd.95. Hannam Group Inc96. Hawaii Digital Assets Inc.97. Hilltop Technology Services LLC98. Hive Empire Trading Pty Ltd99. Innovatia Ltd100. Island Bay Ventures Inc101. K-DNA Financial Services Ltd102. Killarney Lake Investments Ltd103. Ledger Holdings Inc.104. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund, LLC105. LedgerPrime Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Master Fund LP106. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Fund, LLC107. LedgerPrime Digital Asset Opportunities Master Fund LP108. Ledger Prime LLC109. LedgerPrime Ventures, LP110. Liquid Financial USA Inc.111. LiquidEX LLC112. Liquid Securities Singapore Pte Ltd113. LT Baskets Ltd.114. Maclaurin Investments Ltd.115. Mangrove Cay Ltd116. North Dimension Inc117. North Dimension Ltd118. North Wireless Dimension Inc119. Paper Bird Inc120. Pioneer Street Inc.121. Quoine India Pte Ltd122. Quoine Pte Ltd123. Quoine Vietnam Co. Ltd124. SNG INVESTMENTS YATIRIM VE DANIŞMANLIK ANONİM ŞİRKETİ125. Strategy Ark Collective Ltd.126. Technology Services Bahamas Limited127. Tigetwit Ltd129. Verdant Canyon Capital LLC130. West Innovative Barista Ltd.131. West Realm Shires Financial Services Inc.132. West Realm Shires Services Inc.133. Western Concord Enterprises Ltd.134. Zubr Exchange Ltd风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"APR":0.9,"TERN":0.9,"VIRI":0.9,"ONTF":0.79,"SANA":0.9,"BOLT":0.9,"CRCT":0.9,"LABP":0.9,"CGEM":0.9,"LHDX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960892019,"gmtCreate":1668122524832,"gmtModify":1676538015004,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960892019","repostId":"1106150398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106150398","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1668093338,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106150398?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 23:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Major CPI slows more than expected! Is the Federal Reserve making a sharp turn?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106150398","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"通胀见顶？万众瞩目的美国CPI数据来了！周四（11月10日）美国劳工统计局公布10月消费者物价指数（CPI）。数据显示，美国10月CPI同比上涨7.7%，预期为8%，前值为8.2%；剔除能源食品的核心","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Has inflation peaked? The highly anticipated US CPI data is here!</p><p>On Thursday (November 10), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October Consumer Price Index (CPI). Data shows that the US CPI rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, compared to the expected 8% and the previous value of 8.2%. Core CPI, excluding energy and food, rose 6.3% year-on-year, compared to the expected 6.5% and the previous value of 6.6%.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this is the first time in seven months that it has fallen below 8%, the smallest increase since January 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5158c824c1768e66aa276dc96e8ae6ad\" tg-width=\"1678\" tg-height=\"1162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The market reacted quickly to the news. The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher. As of press time, the Nasdaq is currently up 4.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.1%, and the S&P 500 is up 3.22%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks surged across the board, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Zhipin</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>It rose more than 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0561656314d40bfc5b43ba58eb12e8a\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>the US Dollar Index plunged, falling 1.63% below 110 points. The offshore yuan continued to rise against the US dollar, breaking through the 7.2 mark and gaining nearly 800 points on the day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6db79d331b586bf5be9d1b0c29baee4c\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Spot gold rose above $1,740 per ounce for the first time since August 30, surging nearly 2% intraday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41cf52d40e588ee84d47991cb70a2848\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Has inflation peaked?</b></p><p>Regarding the decline in inflation to the \"7 range\", some institutions pointed out that the US CPI increase in October was lower than expected, and underlying inflation seems to have peaked, which will allow the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of significant rate hike. The U.S. CPI rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, the first time it has fallen below 8% since February of this year.</p><p>The Federal Reserve raised its rate hike by 75 basis points for the fourth consecutive week last week and said it would need to further raise borrowing costs to bring inflation down to its 2% target.</p><p>However, this suggests that the Federal Reserve may be approaching the turning point of its fastest rate hike cycle since the 1980s. Despite gasoline prices rising after three consecutive months of declines, commodity inflation is slowing as demand shifts back to labor-intensive services and damaged global supply chains recover. Core CPI growth is also slowing. Although soaring rents are driving up the core CPI, there are signs that rent increases may also slow down soon.</p><p>Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago, said:</p><p>The market believes this CPI data is good, and the focus is not on the annualized rate, but on the fact that the monthly rate remains low. Many areas of focus have finally lowered their CPI data, indicating that this CPI data will have an impact, and is having an impact. My current expectation is that the Federal Reserve will rate hike by 50 basis points in December. We had never expected this before; we had always believed that rate hike would reach 75 basis points.<b>Is the Federal Reserve slowing its pace of rate hike?</b></p><p>As one of the most important inflation indicators ahead of the December meeting, the performance of the US October CPI has a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's future policy path.</p><p>Nick Timiraos, the \"mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve,\" said that the October inflation report may cause the Fed to rate hike by 50 basis points next month as planned. Officials have hinted that they are somewhat insensitive to recent inflation data and hope to slow the pace of rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Harker pointed out:</p><p>The 50 basis point rate hike remains significant, and the Federal Reserve is expected to pause tightening policy sometime next year. I support pausing rate hike when the funds rate reaches around 4.5%. The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2023, with the unemployment rate peaking at 4.5%. Last week, the Federal Reserve announced its fourth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points, while also hinting at the possibility of further easing of policy. Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials also indicate that a consensus is emerging on slowing rate hike, and Powell's proposed increase in the terminal interest rate has been confirmed.</p><p>Chicago Fed President Evans believes that there is no longer a need to take a preemptive stance and move forward at a pace of no more than 75 basis points, and it makes sense to refer to more data before achieving the target.</p><p>Previously, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari had also stated that policymakers were working to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy, but would not back down from curbing high inflation. A rate hike of 50 basis points or 75 basis points in December is under consideration, but other options are not ruled out. He said:</p><p>We unanimously committed to reducing inflation to 2%, but the effect of monetary policy has been lagging behind. Some argue that policymakers need to act even more aggressively, but the reason they haven't is that the Federal Reserve's actions take time to have an impact on demand and inflation. By taking positive action, but also taking some steps, we can see how the economy develops. This reduces the risk of us exceeding our goals. According to the latest data from CME group Interest Rate Watch, the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing its 75 basis point rate hike next month has dropped to around 19%, while the probability of rate hike continuing its 50 basis point rate hike is 80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2df9e3c9adea40754acd0fba79cc760\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">Orient Securities</a>It is believed that even if the core CPI peaks, the pace of decline in the future may be relatively slow.</p><p>Although inflation, the most important economic condition required for the Federal Reserve's policy shift, has indeed undergone some marginal changes and has the potential to develop towards a more optimistic outlook, the Fed's continued significant rate hike, given that the market has already fully priced in the Fed's slowdown in rate hike or even interest rate cuts, reflects potential changes in current inflation trends and expectations, and is not sufficient to trigger the Fed's shift at this time.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is moving towards a frank and competitive strategy with the market. The most closely watched leading indicators and expectations are now not only market consensus, but also noticed by the Fed, which wants the market to know this. Thus<b>The expected fundamental trends will not have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's current decisions.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Major CPI slows more than expected! Is the Federal Reserve making a sharp turn?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMajor CPI slows more than expected! Is the Federal Reserve making a sharp turn?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-10 23:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Has inflation peaked? The highly anticipated US CPI data is here!</p><p>On Thursday (November 10), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October Consumer Price Index (CPI). Data shows that the US CPI rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, compared to the expected 8% and the previous value of 8.2%. Core CPI, excluding energy and food, rose 6.3% year-on-year, compared to the expected 6.5% and the previous value of 6.6%.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this is the first time in seven months that it has fallen below 8%, the smallest increase since January 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5158c824c1768e66aa276dc96e8ae6ad\" tg-width=\"1678\" tg-height=\"1162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The market reacted quickly to the news. The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher. As of press time, the Nasdaq is currently up 4.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.1%, and the S&P 500 is up 3.22%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks surged across the board, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Zhipin</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>It rose more than 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0561656314d40bfc5b43ba58eb12e8a\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>the US Dollar Index plunged, falling 1.63% below 110 points. The offshore yuan continued to rise against the US dollar, breaking through the 7.2 mark and gaining nearly 800 points on the day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6db79d331b586bf5be9d1b0c29baee4c\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Spot gold rose above $1,740 per ounce for the first time since August 30, surging nearly 2% intraday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41cf52d40e588ee84d47991cb70a2848\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Has inflation peaked?</b></p><p>Regarding the decline in inflation to the \"7 range\", some institutions pointed out that the US CPI increase in October was lower than expected, and underlying inflation seems to have peaked, which will allow the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of significant rate hike. The U.S. CPI rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, the first time it has fallen below 8% since February of this year.</p><p>The Federal Reserve raised its rate hike by 75 basis points for the fourth consecutive week last week and said it would need to further raise borrowing costs to bring inflation down to its 2% target.</p><p>However, this suggests that the Federal Reserve may be approaching the turning point of its fastest rate hike cycle since the 1980s. Despite gasoline prices rising after three consecutive months of declines, commodity inflation is slowing as demand shifts back to labor-intensive services and damaged global supply chains recover. Core CPI growth is also slowing. Although soaring rents are driving up the core CPI, there are signs that rent increases may also slow down soon.</p><p>Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago, said:</p><p>The market believes this CPI data is good, and the focus is not on the annualized rate, but on the fact that the monthly rate remains low. Many areas of focus have finally lowered their CPI data, indicating that this CPI data will have an impact, and is having an impact. My current expectation is that the Federal Reserve will rate hike by 50 basis points in December. We had never expected this before; we had always believed that rate hike would reach 75 basis points.<b>Is the Federal Reserve slowing its pace of rate hike?</b></p><p>As one of the most important inflation indicators ahead of the December meeting, the performance of the US October CPI has a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's future policy path.</p><p>Nick Timiraos, the \"mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve,\" said that the October inflation report may cause the Fed to rate hike by 50 basis points next month as planned. Officials have hinted that they are somewhat insensitive to recent inflation data and hope to slow the pace of rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Harker pointed out:</p><p>The 50 basis point rate hike remains significant, and the Federal Reserve is expected to pause tightening policy sometime next year. I support pausing rate hike when the funds rate reaches around 4.5%. The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2023, with the unemployment rate peaking at 4.5%. Last week, the Federal Reserve announced its fourth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points, while also hinting at the possibility of further easing of policy. Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials also indicate that a consensus is emerging on slowing rate hike, and Powell's proposed increase in the terminal interest rate has been confirmed.</p><p>Chicago Fed President Evans believes that there is no longer a need to take a preemptive stance and move forward at a pace of no more than 75 basis points, and it makes sense to refer to more data before achieving the target.</p><p>Previously, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari had also stated that policymakers were working to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy, but would not back down from curbing high inflation. A rate hike of 50 basis points or 75 basis points in December is under consideration, but other options are not ruled out. He said:</p><p>We unanimously committed to reducing inflation to 2%, but the effect of monetary policy has been lagging behind. Some argue that policymakers need to act even more aggressively, but the reason they haven't is that the Federal Reserve's actions take time to have an impact on demand and inflation. By taking positive action, but also taking some steps, we can see how the economy develops. This reduces the risk of us exceeding our goals. According to the latest data from CME group Interest Rate Watch, the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing its 75 basis point rate hike next month has dropped to around 19%, while the probability of rate hike continuing its 50 basis point rate hike is 80%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2df9e3c9adea40754acd0fba79cc760\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">Orient Securities</a>It is believed that even if the core CPI peaks, the pace of decline in the future may be relatively slow.</p><p>Although inflation, the most important economic condition required for the Federal Reserve's policy shift, has indeed undergone some marginal changes and has the potential to develop towards a more optimistic outlook, the Fed's continued significant rate hike, given that the market has already fully priced in the Fed's slowdown in rate hike or even interest rate cuts, reflects potential changes in current inflation trends and expectations, and is not sufficient to trigger the Fed's shift at this time.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is moving towards a frank and competitive strategy with the market. The most closely watched leading indicators and expectations are now not only market consensus, but also noticed by the Fed, which wants the market to know this. Thus<b>The expected fundamental trends will not have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's current decisions.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106150398","content_text":"通胀见顶？万众瞩目的美国CPI数据来了！周四（11月10日）美国劳工统计局公布10月消费者物价指数（CPI）。数据显示，美国10月CPI同比上涨7.7%，预期为8%，前值为8.2%；剔除能源食品的核心CPI同比增长6.3%，预期6.5%，前值6.6%。值得一提的是，这是时隔7个月再度回落至8%以下，为2022年1月以来最小增幅。受消息影响，市场迅速反应。美股开盘三大指数集体上涨，截止发稿，纳指现涨4.39%，道指涨2.1%，标普500指数涨3.22%。热门中概股全线大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨6%，蔚来涨14%，小鹏汽车、BOSS直聘、理想汽车、哔哩哔哩涨超10%，京东涨7%，拼多多、唯品会涨超6%。美元指数大跳水，下跌1.63%失守110点。离岸人民币兑美元持续走高，升破7.2关口，日内涨近800点。现货黄金站上1740美元/盎司，为8月30日以来首次，日内大涨近2%。通胀见顶？对于通胀回落至“7区间”，有机构指出，美国10月CPI增幅低于预期，基础通胀似乎已见顶，这将使美联储能够放慢大幅加息的步伐。美国10月CPI年率录得7.7%，为今年2月以来首次低于8%。美联储上周连续第四次加息75个基点，并表示要将通胀率降至2%的目标，需要进一步提高借贷成本。不过，这暗示美联储可能正接近上世纪80年代以来最快的一次加息周期的拐点。尽管汽油价格在连续三个月下跌后出现上涨，但商品通胀正在放缓，因需求重新转向劳动密集型服务，且受损的全球供应链复苏。核心CPI增速也在放缓，虽然不断飙升的租金推动核心CPI上涨，但有迹象表明，租金上涨也可能很快就会放缓。芝加哥Kingsview投资管理公司投资组合经理Paul Nolte表示：市场认为这个CPI数据很好，重点不在于年率，而在于月率继续维持低位。很多大家关注的领域终于压低了CPI数据，表明这次的CPI数据将产生影响，而且正在产生影响，我现在的预期是美联储将在12月加息50个基点。我们此前从未这样预期过，一直都认为会加息75个基点。美联储放缓加息步伐？作为12月会议前最重要的通胀指标之一，美国10月CPI的表现对美联储未来的政策路径产生重要影响。“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos表示，10月份的通胀报告可能会使美联储按计划于下月加息50个基点。官员们已经暗示，他们对近期通胀数据有些不敏感，希望放缓加息步伐。美联储哈克指出：加息50个基点仍然意义重大，预计美联储将在明年的某个时候暂停紧缩政策，我支持在基金利率达到4.5%左右时暂停加息。预计2023年美国经济将增长1.5%，失业率将达到4.5%的峰值。上周，美联储宣布连续第四次加息75个基点的同时，也暗示了接下来放缓政策力度的可能性。近期美联储官员的表态也显示，放缓加息正在形成共识，鲍威尔提出的终点利率上移也得到了确认。芝加哥联储主席埃文斯认为，不再需要采取先发制人的立场，以不超过75个基点的速度前进，在目标达成前参考更多数据是有意义的。此前，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利也曾表示，政策制定者正努力实现美国经济软着陆，但不会在遏制高通胀方面退缩。12月加息50个基点或75个基点均在考虑之列，但不排除其他选项。他表示：我们一致承诺将通胀率降至2%，但货币政策的作用存在滞后性。一些人认为政策制定者的行动幅度甚至需要更大，但没有这样做的原因是美联储的行动需要时间才能对需求和通胀产生影响。通过积极行动，但同时也采取一些步骤，我们就能看到经济如何发展。这降低了我们超出目标的风险。据芝商所利率观察工具（FedWatch）最新显示，下月美联储继续加息75个基点的概率降至19%左右，加息50个基点的概率为80%。不过，东方证券认为，核心CPI即使见顶，在未来下行的节奏也可能是较为缓慢的。尽管美联储政策转向所需的最重要的经济条件——通胀，确实出现了一定程度的边际变化，并且有向着更加乐观的情形发展的可能性，然而在市场已经为美联储放缓加息甚至降息充分定价的情况下，美联储仍在持续大幅加息，反映出当前通胀的趋势和预期可能发生的变化，不足以成为美联储此刻转向的触发条件。美联储正在向着同市场坦诚相见的博弈策略发展，最受关注的领先指标和预期，现在不仅仅是市场共识，也被美联储关注到，其希望市场知道这一点。因此，预期的基本面变化趋势，并不对美联储当期决策产生重大影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"CPI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984872843,"gmtCreate":1667611254782,"gmtModify":1676537943798,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984872843","repostId":"1186251885","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186251885","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667560997,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186251885?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 19:23","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A bizarre scene happened! European LNG carriers refuse to dock in anticipation of rising natural gas prices.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186251885","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"贸易商预计LNG供应充足和温暖天气下的气价下跌都只是暂时现象，因此在“期货升水”结构下，迟迟不愿进港交割。昔日，当石油价格暂未“启动”但供应商充满乐观预期时，他们不会着急把油轮开进港口，更愿意让油轮漂","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Traders anticipate that ample LNG supply and a drop in gas prices due to warm weather are only temporary phenomena, and therefore, under the \"futures premium\" structure, they are reluctant to enter ports for delivery.</b>In the past, when oil prices had not yet \"taken off\" but suppliers were full of optimism, they would not rush to bring oil tankers into the port. They would rather let the tankers float at sea as \"floating warehouses\" and wait for prices to rise before entering the port for delivery.</p><p>Today, the same approach is being perfectly applied by LNG carriers bound for Europe. More than 30 LNG carriers are floating near European ports because, according to traders' estimates,<b>The decline in gas prices due to ample natural gas supplies and warmer weather is only temporary and worth waiting for.</b></p><p><b>Under the \"futures premium\" structure, traders delay whenever possible.</b></p><p>Media reports indicate that, according to data from shipping analytics firm Vortexa, ships carrying a total of $2 billion worth of LNG are currently sailing slowly near northwestern Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. In the past two months, the number of LNG carriers sailing in European waters has doubled. Another 30 LNG carriers are currently on their way across the Atlantic and are expected to join the waiting list before winter.</p><p>For months, due to milder-than-usual autumn temperatures this year, coupled with near-full European natural gas inventories, the price of the European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures has fallen sharply. The recently expiring TTF contract for delivery in November is priced below €85 per megawatt-hour, a decrease of about 70% from its peak at the end of August.</p><p>But<b>The natural gas futures market currently operates under a \"futures premium\" (contango) structure.</b>This means that the price of futures forward contracts is higher than the price of recent contracts. The prices of TTF contracts for delivery in January next year and December this year are approximately 35% and 30% higher than the closing price of the contracts in November this year, respectively.<b>This caused traders holding goods to delay delivery as much as possible.</b></p><p>Traders are currently insisting on getting better prices in the coming months, when they expect winter temperatures in Europe to drop and the \"nowhere to store\" natural gas stored in Europe to begin to decrease.</p><p>Felix Booth, head of liquefied natural gas at Vortexa, said that with European natural gas inventories nearing their storage limits, \"LNG carriers are lining up outside European LNG receiving terminals, chasing what they expect to be the high-quality LNG market.\"</p><p>Booth added that it may take another month for the LNG carrier to find a receiving terminal.</p><p>He believes that \"these ships currently have an incentive to hold positions\" because traders expect gas prices to rise as temperatures drop.</p><p><b>Faced with limited LNG, Eurasia engages in a fierce competition.</b></p><p>It is worth noting that traders' choice to squeeze cargo in order to make more profits will lead to a shortage of LNG carriers, resulting in higher freight rates and making it more difficult for Asian buyers to buy LNG, putting them at a disadvantage in the competition with European buyers.</p><p>Data from data provider Argus Media shows that on October 31, freight rates from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Northeast Asia were $478,000 per day, and to northwestern Europe were $468,000 per day, both record highs and double what they were a year ago.</p><p>In recent weeks, benchmark LNG prices in Asia have frequently been higher than in Europe, incentivizing traders to ship more LNG to Asia.<b>However, \"almost no company can obtain additional capacity to guarantee the delivery of LNG from the United States or West Africa to Northeast Asia or Europe, regardless of the situation in these regions.\"</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A bizarre scene happened! European LNG carriers refuse to dock in anticipation of rising natural gas prices.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA bizarre scene happened! European LNG carriers refuse to dock in anticipation of rising natural gas prices.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-04 19:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Traders anticipate that ample LNG supply and a drop in gas prices due to warm weather are only temporary phenomena, and therefore, under the \"futures premium\" structure, they are reluctant to enter ports for delivery.</b>In the past, when oil prices had not yet \"taken off\" but suppliers were full of optimism, they would not rush to bring oil tankers into the port. They would rather let the tankers float at sea as \"floating warehouses\" and wait for prices to rise before entering the port for delivery.</p><p>Today, the same approach is being perfectly applied by LNG carriers bound for Europe. More than 30 LNG carriers are floating near European ports because, according to traders' estimates,<b>The decline in gas prices due to ample natural gas supplies and warmer weather is only temporary and worth waiting for.</b></p><p><b>Under the \"futures premium\" structure, traders delay whenever possible.</b></p><p>Media reports indicate that, according to data from shipping analytics firm Vortexa, ships carrying a total of $2 billion worth of LNG are currently sailing slowly near northwestern Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. In the past two months, the number of LNG carriers sailing in European waters has doubled. Another 30 LNG carriers are currently on their way across the Atlantic and are expected to join the waiting list before winter.</p><p>For months, due to milder-than-usual autumn temperatures this year, coupled with near-full European natural gas inventories, the price of the European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures has fallen sharply. The recently expiring TTF contract for delivery in November is priced below €85 per megawatt-hour, a decrease of about 70% from its peak at the end of August.</p><p>But<b>The natural gas futures market currently operates under a \"futures premium\" (contango) structure.</b>This means that the price of futures forward contracts is higher than the price of recent contracts. The prices of TTF contracts for delivery in January next year and December this year are approximately 35% and 30% higher than the closing price of the contracts in November this year, respectively.<b>This caused traders holding goods to delay delivery as much as possible.</b></p><p>Traders are currently insisting on getting better prices in the coming months, when they expect winter temperatures in Europe to drop and the \"nowhere to store\" natural gas stored in Europe to begin to decrease.</p><p>Felix Booth, head of liquefied natural gas at Vortexa, said that with European natural gas inventories nearing their storage limits, \"LNG carriers are lining up outside European LNG receiving terminals, chasing what they expect to be the high-quality LNG market.\"</p><p>Booth added that it may take another month for the LNG carrier to find a receiving terminal.</p><p>He believes that \"these ships currently have an incentive to hold positions\" because traders expect gas prices to rise as temperatures drop.</p><p><b>Faced with limited LNG, Eurasia engages in a fierce competition.</b></p><p>It is worth noting that traders' choice to squeeze cargo in order to make more profits will lead to a shortage of LNG carriers, resulting in higher freight rates and making it more difficult for Asian buyers to buy LNG, putting them at a disadvantage in the competition with European buyers.</p><p>Data from data provider Argus Media shows that on October 31, freight rates from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Northeast Asia were $478,000 per day, and to northwestern Europe were $468,000 per day, both record highs and double what they were a year ago.</p><p>In recent weeks, benchmark LNG prices in Asia have frequently been higher than in Europe, incentivizing traders to ship more LNG to Asia.<b>However, \"almost no company can obtain additional capacity to guarantee the delivery of LNG from the United States or West Africa to Northeast Asia or Europe, regardless of the situation in these regions.\"</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674153\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1378d0c70a3e16dacc3a4b8143a07dcd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674153","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186251885","content_text":"贸易商预计LNG供应充足和温暖天气下的气价下跌都只是暂时现象，因此在“期货升水”结构下，迟迟不愿进港交割。昔日，当石油价格暂未“启动”但供应商充满乐观预期时，他们不会着急把油轮开进港口，更愿意让油轮漂在海上充当“浮动仓库”，等待价格上涨之后再进港交割。如今，同样的思路也被开往欧洲的LNG船运用得炉火纯青。30多只LNG船正漂浮在欧洲港口附近，因为按照贸易商的预估，供应充足的天然气和温暖天气导致的气价下降都只是暂时的，值得继续等待。“期货升水”结构下 贸易商能拖就拖媒体称，按照航运分析公司Vortexa的数据，运输总价值20亿美元LNG的船只目前正在欧洲西北部和伊比利亚半岛附近缓慢航行。在过去两个月间，行驶在欧洲海域的LNG船数量翻了一番。眼下另有30艘LNG船正在穿越大西洋的途中，预计将在冬季之前加入等候行列。数月来，由于今年秋季气温比往年温和，再加上欧洲天然气库存接近满仓，欧洲基准TTF荷兰天然气期货价格大幅下挫，最近到期、于11月交割的TTF合约价格不及每兆瓦时85欧元，较8月底的峰值下降约70%。但目前天然气期货市场处于“期货升水”（contango）结构，即期货远期合约价格高于近期合约价格，明年1月、今年12月交割的TTF合约价格分别比今年11月合约收盘价高出约35%和30%，这造成持有货物的贸易商都尽可能推迟交割。目前贸易商们坚持在未来几月将获得更好的价格，他们预计届时欧洲冬季气温将下降，欧洲储存的“无处安放”的天然气也会开始减少。Vortexa液化天然气主管Felix Booth表示，在欧洲天然气库存已接近存储上限的情况下，“LNG船在欧洲LNG接收站外排起了长队，追逐他们预期中的优质LNG市场”。Booth还补充道，可能还要等一个月时间，LNG船才会找到一个接收站。他认为，“目前这些船有动力持有头寸”，因为贸易商预计随着气温下降，气价将上涨。面对有限LNG，欧亚展开疯狂争夺值得注意的是，贸易商为获得更多利润而选择挤压货物，将导致LNG船短缺，运费随之上涨，使得亚洲买家更难买到LNG，在与欧洲买家的争夺中处于下风。数据提供商Argus Media的数据显示，10月31日，从美国墨西哥湾沿岸到东北亚的运费为每天47.8万美元，到欧洲西北部的运费为每天46.8万美元，这两项价格均创历史新高，是一年前的两倍。最近几周，亚洲基准LNG价格经常高于欧洲，激励贸易商将更多LNG运往亚洲，然而“几乎没有公司能获得额外的运力，保证将美国或西非的LNG运往东北亚或者欧洲，无论这些地区的情况如何。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985914331,"gmtCreate":1667291116823,"gmtModify":1676537892496,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985914331","repostId":"1105428031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985914904,"gmtCreate":1667291089309,"gmtModify":1676537892491,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985914904","repostId":"1187722289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187722289","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667289911,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187722289?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-01 16:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Changes | Popular Chinese stocks broke out! Bilibili, Pinduoduo rose more than 8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187722289","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月1日，美股指期货上涨，道指期货涨0.42%，纳指期货涨0.72%，标普500指数期货涨0.60%。热门中概股盘前齐涨，哔哩哔哩、拼多多、爱奇艺涨超8%，百度、京东涨超7%，蔚来、阿里巴巴、贝壳涨","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 1st, U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose by 0.42%, Nasdaq futures rose by 0.72%, and S&P 500 futures rose by 0.60%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a4a94d0bdc7fdffec9a4ffcadf7953d\" tg-width=\"441\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Popular Chinese stocks rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Over 6%, fog core technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It rose more than 5%.</p><p>US iron ore giants strengthened before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBL\">BHP Billiton</a>Up more than 4%, Rio Tinto up more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">Vale</a>It rose more than 1%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It rose more than 4% before the market and spent about $36,200 to repurchase 18,300 shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">AstraZeneca</a>It rose nearly 2% before the market, and the company said that its new crown vaccine Vaxzevria has obtained full marketing authorization in the European Union. The full marketing authorization includes the use of Vaxzevria in the primary vaccination or the third booster shot.</p><p>Shopify rose more than 3% before the market, and its Q3 results were much stronger than expected. Many major banks raised their target prices successively.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Changes | Popular Chinese stocks broke out! Bilibili, Pinduoduo rose more than 8%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChanges | Popular Chinese stocks broke out! Bilibili, Pinduoduo rose more than 8%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-01 16:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 1st, U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose by 0.42%, Nasdaq futures rose by 0.72%, and S&P 500 futures rose by 0.60%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a4a94d0bdc7fdffec9a4ffcadf7953d\" tg-width=\"441\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Popular Chinese stocks rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>rose by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Over 6%, fog core technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It rose more than 5%.</p><p>US iron ore giants strengthened before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBL\">BHP Billiton</a>Up more than 4%, Rio Tinto up more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">Vale</a>It rose more than 1%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It rose more than 4% before the market and spent about $36,200 to repurchase 18,300 shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">AstraZeneca</a>It rose nearly 2% before the market, and the company said that its new crown vaccine Vaxzevria has obtained full marketing authorization in the European Union. The full marketing authorization includes the use of Vaxzevria in the primary vaccination or the third booster shot.</p><p>Shopify rose more than 3% before the market, and its Q3 results were much stronger than expected. Many major banks raised their target prices successively.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ed81b1e72df2f2f0f21497fe08eaed","relate_stocks":{"BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4510":"在线教育","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1104":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4531":"中概回港概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4526":"热门中概股",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4563":"昨日强势股","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","PDD":"拼多多","BK4513":"直播概念","BK4558":"双十一","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187722289","content_text":"11月1日，美股指期货上涨，道指期货涨0.42%，纳指期货涨0.72%，标普500指数期货涨0.60%。热门中概股盘前齐涨，哔哩哔哩、拼多多、爱奇艺涨超8%，百度、京东涨超7%，蔚来、阿里巴巴、贝壳涨超6%，雾芯科技、小鹏汽车涨超5%。美股铁矿石巨头盘前走强，必和必拓涨超4%，力拓涨逾3%，淡水河谷涨超1%。知乎盘前涨超4%，耗资约3.62万美元回购1.83万股。阿斯利康盘前涨近2%， 公司表示，其新冠疫苗Vaxzevria已在欧盟获得全面上市许可。全面上市许可包括在初次接种或第三针加强针中使用Vaxzevria。Shopify盘前涨逾3%，Q3业绩远强于预期，多家大行先后上调目标价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"BILI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"09626":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TTTN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986406321,"gmtCreate":1667001058063,"gmtModify":1676537846172,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986406321","repostId":"1165080091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165080091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666942418,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165080091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-28 15:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Technology stocks plummeted, another revenge from the \"old economy\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165080091","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"十年河东，十年河西。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Bu Shuqing</p><p>US tech companies suffered a disastrous third-quarter earnings report. FAANMG, which had dominated the US stock market for many years, suffered setbacks except for Netflix, which stood out. Market confidence suffered a severe blow, and most tech stocks plummeted.</p><p>In response, Jeff Currie, head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, lamented in a media interview on Thursday that Wall Street is struggling to cope with the \"retaliation of the old economy\"!</p><p>All the published results confirm this idea: the revenge of the old economy. Tech stocks: Massive decline. In contrast, energy companies: all their performance is astonishing. He explained that the low returns of the old economy over the past decade led to a shift of capital to technology and growth sectors, while insufficient investment in energy and industry caused today's supply problems.</p><p>Currie also stated that oil and other commodities are considered post-cyclical assets, which means that the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate hike on the old economy will be delayed compared to technology and growth stocks.</p><p>He believes that commodities are in a new expiration cycle, given that the previous super cycle lasted about 12 years.<b>He believes that the oil supercycle, which began in 2020, may continue until after 2030.</b></p><p><b>When new economic growth fails to fill the gap, the revenge of the old economy begins.</b></p><p>In fact, Currie issued a similar warning as early as last year.</p><p>At the time, energy prices experienced their largest sell-off in more than a year, but Goldman Sachs warned that the energy supply shortage was far from over due to factors such as a long-term lack of investment.</p><p>Goldman Sachs also predicted that a continued decline in crude oil prices would directly suppress supply, leading to a resurgence of supply shortages and a sharp rise in commodity prices. A new commodity supercycle is coming.</p><p>According to him, market demand for goods surged after the pandemic, while the supply capacity of commodities declined significantly due to aging infrastructure and reduced investment. At the same time, the growth rate of the new economy is not enough to fill the gap that has emerged in the old economy.</p><p><b>This is where the retaliation of the old economy will leave its mark, and the period of commodity price pressure will reappear.</b></p><p><b>Ten years to the east, ten years to the west</b></p><p>Over the past decade, US stocks have benefited from global monetary easing, experiencing a prolonged bull market. Technology companies, represented by FAANMG, have performed particularly well, becoming the \"engine\" driving the Nasdaq and even the entire US stock market to rise.</p><p>However, as the Federal Reserve began its aggressive rate hike cycle, the tide quickly receded, and the performance engines of once-glorious technology stocks began to fade.</p><p>The financial reports for the third quarter of this year were particularly dismal. Among tech giants, apart from Netflix, Meta's net profit plummeted by 52% year-on-year, Microsoft's revenue growth fell to its lowest level in five years, Google's growth rate fell back to its lowest level in 2013, Apple suffered a loss of double-digit growth, and Amazon's performance fell short of expectations across the board...</p><p>Market confidence suffered a severe blow, and tech stocks suffered a bloodbath. Meta's stock price fell by more than 24% after releasing its earnings report on the 27th, and Google's parent company Alphabet's stock price fell by more than 9% after releasing its earnings report on the 26th. Over the past year, FAANMG's market capitalization has evaporated by more than $3 trillion, a year-on-year decline of 35%.</p><p>This may just be the beginning. Analysts say that as the Federal Reserve continues to shrink its balance sheet, the valuation of technology stocks is expected to have room to correct.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technology stocks plummeted, another revenge from the \"old economy\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnology stocks plummeted, another revenge from the \"old economy\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-28 15:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Bu Shuqing</p><p>US tech companies suffered a disastrous third-quarter earnings report. FAANMG, which had dominated the US stock market for many years, suffered setbacks except for Netflix, which stood out. Market confidence suffered a severe blow, and most tech stocks plummeted.</p><p>In response, Jeff Currie, head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, lamented in a media interview on Thursday that Wall Street is struggling to cope with the \"retaliation of the old economy\"!</p><p>All the published results confirm this idea: the revenge of the old economy. Tech stocks: Massive decline. In contrast, energy companies: all their performance is astonishing. He explained that the low returns of the old economy over the past decade led to a shift of capital to technology and growth sectors, while insufficient investment in energy and industry caused today's supply problems.</p><p>Currie also stated that oil and other commodities are considered post-cyclical assets, which means that the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate hike on the old economy will be delayed compared to technology and growth stocks.</p><p>He believes that commodities are in a new expiration cycle, given that the previous super cycle lasted about 12 years.<b>He believes that the oil supercycle, which began in 2020, may continue until after 2030.</b></p><p><b>When new economic growth fails to fill the gap, the revenge of the old economy begins.</b></p><p>In fact, Currie issued a similar warning as early as last year.</p><p>At the time, energy prices experienced their largest sell-off in more than a year, but Goldman Sachs warned that the energy supply shortage was far from over due to factors such as a long-term lack of investment.</p><p>Goldman Sachs also predicted that a continued decline in crude oil prices would directly suppress supply, leading to a resurgence of supply shortages and a sharp rise in commodity prices. A new commodity supercycle is coming.</p><p>According to him, market demand for goods surged after the pandemic, while the supply capacity of commodities declined significantly due to aging infrastructure and reduced investment. At the same time, the growth rate of the new economy is not enough to fill the gap that has emerged in the old economy.</p><p><b>This is where the retaliation of the old economy will leave its mark, and the period of commodity price pressure will reappear.</b></p><p><b>Ten years to the east, ten years to the west</b></p><p>Over the past decade, US stocks have benefited from global monetary easing, experiencing a prolonged bull market. Technology companies, represented by FAANMG, have performed particularly well, becoming the \"engine\" driving the Nasdaq and even the entire US stock market to rise.</p><p>However, as the Federal Reserve began its aggressive rate hike cycle, the tide quickly receded, and the performance engines of once-glorious technology stocks began to fade.</p><p>The financial reports for the third quarter of this year were particularly dismal. Among tech giants, apart from Netflix, Meta's net profit plummeted by 52% year-on-year, Microsoft's revenue growth fell to its lowest level in five years, Google's growth rate fell back to its lowest level in 2013, Apple suffered a loss of double-digit growth, and Amazon's performance fell short of expectations across the board...</p><p>Market confidence suffered a severe blow, and tech stocks suffered a bloodbath. Meta's stock price fell by more than 24% after releasing its earnings report on the 27th, and Google's parent company Alphabet's stock price fell by more than 9% after releasing its earnings report on the 26th. Over the past year, FAANMG's market capitalization has evaporated by more than $3 trillion, a year-on-year decline of 35%.</p><p>This may just be the beginning. Analysts say that as the Federal Reserve continues to shrink its balance sheet, the valuation of technology stocks is expected to have room to correct.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673519\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9affa90aeb60480d0aba843f0241d9e8","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673519","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1165080091","content_text":"作者：卜淑情美国科技公司三季报战况惨烈，“称霸”美股多年的FAANMG除奈飞“一枝独秀”外纷纷折戟，市场信心遭受重挫，多数科技股暴跌。对此，高盛大宗商品主管Jeff Currie周四在接受媒体采访时感叹称，华尔街正在努力应对“旧经济的报复”！所有已公布的业绩都证实了这个想法：旧经济的报复。科技股：大规模败退。反观能源公司：所有的业绩都令人瞠目结舌。他解释称，过去十年里旧经济的回报太低，导致资本纷纷转移到科技和成长型领域，而能源和工业投资不足，造成了今天的供应问题。Currie还表示，石油和其他大宗商品被视为后周期资产，这意味着与科技股和成长股相比，美联储加息对旧经济的影响将出现延迟。他认为大宗商品正处于一个新的超期周期中，鉴于之前的超级周期持续12年左右，他认为从2020年开始，石油的超级周期可能会持续到2030年之后。当新经济增长无法弥补缺口 旧经济的复仇开始实际上，Currie早在去年就发出了类似的警告。当时能源价格一度遭遇一年多来的最大规模抛售，但高盛警告称，受长期缺乏投资等因素影响，能源的供应短缺局面远未结束。高盛还做出预测，原油价格继续下滑会直接抑制供应，因此供不应求的局面将会重现，大宗商品价格将大幅上涨。新的大宗商品超级周期即将到来。根据他的说法，疫情后市场对商品的需求激增，而大宗商品由于基础设施老化和投资减少，供应能力显著下降。与此同时，新经济的增长速度不足以填补旧经济出现的缺口。这就是旧经济的报复将留下印记的地方，大宗商品价格压力时期将再次出现。十年河东，十年河西过去十年间，美股受益于全球货币宽松，经历了一轮超长牛市，以FAANMG代表的科技类公司表现尤为亮眼，成为了推动纳指乃至整个美股不断走高的“发动机”。但随着美联储开启激进加息周期，潮水快速退去，曾经风光无限的科技股的业绩引擎开始陆续熄火。今年三季度的财报尤为惨烈， FAANMG科技巨头中，除奈飞“一枝独秀”外，Meta净利润同比暴降52%，微软营收增速降至5年最低，谷歌增速跌回2013年最低水平，苹果痛失两位数增长，亚马逊业绩全面逊于预期……市场信心遭受重挫，科技股血流成河，Meta 27日公布财报后股价一度跌超24%，谷歌母公司Alphabet 26日公布财报后股价跌超9%。而过去一年中，FAANMG的市值合计蒸发超过三万亿美元，同比下滑35%。而这可能仅仅是个开始，分析称，随着美联储继续瘦身资产负债表，科技股的估值预计还有回调空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981308592,"gmtCreate":1666396589217,"gmtModify":1676537750769,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981308592","repostId":"2277544052","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2277544052","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1666335847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2277544052?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-21 15:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening the \"Pandora's Box\" of US core inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2277544052","media":"国泰君安证券","summary":"还能关上吗？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Looking ahead, we may only see a fundamental easing of inflationary pressures in the United States when excess savings (caused by fiscal subsidies) are exhausted.<b>US: Core inflation indicators hit multi-decade highs</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f98c10dd329da1625e75817423f9bdf\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although nominal U.S. inflation has eased in recent months, core CPI inflation has climbed to its highest level in 40 years, indicating that inflationary pressures have spread from energy and food prices to the service sector.</p><p>Currently, with the stabilization of the pandemic, the growth trend of residents' income has returned to pre-pandemic levels and is stabilizing, while Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is still higher than the historical trend.<b>Looking ahead, when excess savings (caused by fiscal subsidies) are exhausted, we may see personal consumption gradually return to its historical trend, thereby fundamentally alleviating inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>When formulating monetary policy, the Federal Reserve prefers to focus on another widely used price indicator—the core PCE deflator—because it can flexibly reflect the impact of prices on consumer behavior. This means that it is also important to measure the dynamic changes between the core CPI inflation rate and the core PCE deflator.</p><p><b>We believe that the overall inflation rate will fall from a peak of 9.1% in June to 7.4% by the end of this year, and the core CPI inflation rate is also expected to stabilize at around 6.4%, roughly the same as the high of the past few decades (6.6%).</b>This means that the core PCE deflator will remain at a high level in the last quarter of this year.</p><p>Because the Federal Reserve focuses on core inflation data, especially the core PCE deflator, it will maintain a tight monetary policy unless core inflation declines significantly.</p><p>01<b>Large-scale subsidies stimulate demand</b></p><p>After being impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States provided large-scale economic subsidies to appease ordinary people. From an economic perspective, such large-scale economic subsidies are bound to lead to severe inflation. In reality, the pandemic and trade frictions have, to some extent, halted the growth trend of global commodity supply, while the economic subsidy-style anti-pandemic policy adopted by the United States has indirectly increased residents' demand, and inflation has naturally occurred due to the imbalance between supply and demand.</p><p>The St. Louis Federal Reserve built a model of changes between U.S. residents' disposable income and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), as shown in Figure 1, to explore the current state and expected trend of U.S. inflation. As shown in the chart below, since March 2020, the disposable income of U.S. residents has increased by a staggering $1.5 trillion compared to before the pandemic, of which more than $800 billion was \"economic subsidies\" paid by the government to residents between 2020 and 2021.</p><p><b>Figure 1: Relationship between disposable income and personal consumption expenditures of U.S. residents (based on constant prices in 2012)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b8ad7cbd297daa231d6f96ad1613a6\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Currently, with the stabilization of the pandemic, the growth trend of residents' income has returned to pre-pandemic levels and is stabilizing, while PCE is still higher than the historical trend. To some extent,<b>Looking ahead, when excess savings (caused by fiscal subsidies) are exhausted, we may see personal consumption gradually return to its historical trend, thereby fundamentally alleviating inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>02<b>The two indicators are harmonious yet different.</b></p><p>Although nominal U.S. inflation has eased in recent months, core CPI inflation has climbed to its highest level in 40 years, indicating that inflationary pressures have spread from energy and food prices to the service sector. When formulating monetary policy, the Federal Reserve prefers to use another widely used price indicator—the core PCE deflator—because it can flexibly reflect the impact of prices on consumer behavior. This means that it is also important to measure the dynamic changes between the core CPI inflation rate and the core PCE deflator.</p><p>The nominal CPI inflation rate and the PCE deflator are two main measures of inflation, both of which reflect changes in current market prices for goods and services. However, the nominal CPI inflation rate is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, while the PCE deflator is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.<b>As a general indicator, the PCE deflator also has its unique advantages: the composition of expenditures in the PCE deflator is flexibly adjusted according to residents' actual consumption behavior, which allows the PCE indicator to reflect changes in expenditures in a more timely and comprehensive manner.</b></p><p><b>Table 1: Key characteristics of nominal CPI inflation and PCE deflator</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3737025597820922cbc35ee4409b7f7e\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Looking back, these two inflation indicators track each other.<b>。 Due to the existence of sampling differences, the trend of the PCE deflation index is relatively moderate.</b>However, judging from the past correlation between the two,<b>The sampling difference did not change the main trends in the core CPI inflation rate and the core PCE deflator.</b>On the other hand, although the nominal CPI inflation rate may gradually decline in the coming months due to the high base effect, the peak of the core CPI inflation rate and the core PCE deflator may be delayed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b10b312280e256cf22cf4adaabb2e10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Figure 4: We believe that the nominal CPI inflation rate will decline faster than the core CPI inflation rate.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ff3f09d9505d6c283a5cb27d16b12e\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>04<b>The core PCE deflator remains high.</b></p><p>Changes in the PCE deflation index at different times have their corresponding driving factors. For example, the shift in consumer spending caused by the outbreak of the pandemic, coupled with the rise in durable goods prices caused by the disruption of the global supply chain, is the originator of this round of inflation in the United States. The rise in prices of non-durable goods, represented by food and energy, further opened the \"Pandora's box\" of this round of US inflation, which remains high to this day.<b>In the post-pandemic era (since the second half of 2021), rising rental prices and service prices have once again become the \"backbone\" of high inflation.</b></p><p><b>Figure 5: Rent has become the main driver of inflation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a9504b8634188a442dfa3724a39ceb\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding rents, according to statistics from Zillow, a publicly traded real estate company in the United States, the U.S. rent index rose by as much as 11% year-on-year in September, far exceeding the 3.8% before the start of COVID-19. The rent item in the core PCE deflator also saw its largest increase since 2008 (7%) in September.</p><p>On the other hand, rising labor costs may also lead to a continued rise in service sector inflation in the medium to long term. Qualtrics conducted a survey of more than 1,000 full-time employees in August and September of this year, and the results showed that the rising cost of living has forced them to look for more ways to increase their overall income. Until inflation falls significantly, we tend to believe that rising wages may drive service sector inflation to continue rising.</p><p><b>Table 2: U.S. employees are looking for more ways to increase their income</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c9b159a10afc48c087f49093316f0e\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>05<b>Medical price index is undecided</b></p><p>Data shows that US inflation appears to have improved thanks to the Federal Reserve's policy intervention, but the market should not be complacent. The rise in medical prices amid inflation may last longer than expected. Unlike generally sold goods, it is difficult to make timely adjustments to the prices of medical-related services and goods based on product quality and supply and demand. The calculation and feedback cycle of medical care and health insurance prices is usually in years.</p><p>After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, some patients inevitably chose to postpone their medical visits or surgeries in order to avoid the risk of contracting COVID-19 as much as possible. Patients will choose to resume medical treatment only after a vaccine is produced and the epidemic is under control. Considering that the resulting price adjustments for healthcare and insurance services will occur after a full year of service, the price adjustments for healthcare services resulting from the resumption of medical treatment by residents in 2021 will only gradually become apparent one year later. The chart below also confirms this view: the healthcare-related CPI inflation rate began to soar in the fourth quarter of 2021, and in September 2022, it rose by 6%, the largest increase in at least the past 20 years. According to previous estimates, the rapid rise in medical price inflation should come to an end in the fourth quarter of this year. However, it will take time for medical prices to fall from their highs, and the magnitude of the decline should not be overestimated because medical workers' wages have risen.</p><p><b>Figure 6: High medical prices have also led to worsening inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbf9e0af8f72e3910edbfa3082cb59e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Overall, the currently known high healthcare inflation and frequent regional conflicts resulting in energy and supply chain instability will remain major obstacles to inflation easing, and it is unlikely that the core PCE deflator will fall to the ideal level expected by the Federal Reserve in the short term.</b></p><p>06<b>The monetary policy outlook remains hawkish.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that market anxiety will not be alleviated by the easing of overall inflation in the coming months. Because the Federal Reserve focuses on core inflation, especially the core PCE deflator, it will maintain a tight monetary policy unless core inflation declines significantly. More importantly, the Federal Reserve also aims to restore the medium-term inflation rate (the core PCE deflator) to 2%.</p><p>On the other hand, even if the core PCE deflator improves in the short term, the Federal Reserve typically needs several quarters to wait and see before deciding whether to take further action.<b>In conclusion, at this stage, we still recommend that the market remain cautious about the outlook for US monetary policy and consider the upward trend in bond yields.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gtjazqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening the \"Pandora's Box\" of US core inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening the \"Pandora's Box\" of US core inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国泰君安证券</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-21 15:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Looking ahead, we may only see a fundamental easing of inflationary pressures in the United States when excess savings (caused by fiscal subsidies) are exhausted.<b>US: Core inflation indicators hit multi-decade highs</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f98c10dd329da1625e75817423f9bdf\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although nominal U.S. inflation has eased in recent months, core CPI inflation has climbed to its highest level in 40 years, indicating that inflationary pressures have spread from energy and food prices to the service sector.</p><p>Currently, with the stabilization of the pandemic, the growth trend of residents' income has returned to pre-pandemic levels and is stabilizing, while Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is still higher than the historical trend.<b>Looking ahead, when excess savings (caused by fiscal subsidies) are exhausted, we may see personal consumption gradually return to its historical trend, thereby fundamentally alleviating inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>When formulating monetary policy, the Federal Reserve prefers to focus on another widely used price indicator—the core PCE deflator—because it can flexibly reflect the impact of prices on consumer behavior. This means that it is also important to measure the dynamic changes between the core CPI inflation rate and the core PCE deflator.</p><p><b>We believe that the overall inflation rate will fall from a peak of 9.1% in June to 7.4% by the end of this year, and the core CPI inflation rate is also expected to stabilize at around 6.4%, roughly the same as the high of the past few decades (6.6%).</b>This means that the core PCE deflator will remain at a high level in the last quarter of this year.</p><p>Because the Federal Reserve focuses on core inflation data, especially the core PCE deflator, it will maintain a tight monetary policy unless core inflation declines significantly.</p><p>01<b>Large-scale subsidies stimulate demand</b></p><p>After being impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States provided large-scale economic subsidies to appease ordinary people. From an economic perspective, such large-scale economic subsidies are bound to lead to severe inflation. In reality, the pandemic and trade frictions have, to some extent, halted the growth trend of global commodity supply, while the economic subsidy-style anti-pandemic policy adopted by the United States has indirectly increased residents' demand, and inflation has naturally occurred due to the imbalance between supply and demand.</p><p>The St. Louis Federal Reserve built a model of changes between U.S. residents' disposable income and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), as shown in Figure 1, to explore the current state and expected trend of U.S. inflation. As shown in the chart below, since March 2020, the disposable income of U.S. residents has increased by a staggering $1.5 trillion compared to before the pandemic, of which more than $800 billion was \"economic subsidies\" paid by the government to residents between 2020 and 2021.</p><p><b>Figure 1: Relationship between disposable income and personal consumption expenditures of U.S. residents (based on constant prices in 2012)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b8ad7cbd297daa231d6f96ad1613a6\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Currently, with the stabilization of the pandemic, the growth trend of residents' income has returned to pre-pandemic levels and is stabilizing, while PCE is still higher than the historical trend. To some extent,<b>Looking ahead, when excess savings (caused by fiscal subsidies) are exhausted, we may see personal consumption gradually return to its historical trend, thereby fundamentally alleviating inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>02<b>The two indicators are harmonious yet different.</b></p><p>Although nominal U.S. inflation has eased in recent months, core CPI inflation has climbed to its highest level in 40 years, indicating that inflationary pressures have spread from energy and food prices to the service sector. When formulating monetary policy, the Federal Reserve prefers to use another widely used price indicator—the core PCE deflator—because it can flexibly reflect the impact of prices on consumer behavior. This means that it is also important to measure the dynamic changes between the core CPI inflation rate and the core PCE deflator.</p><p>The nominal CPI inflation rate and the PCE deflator are two main measures of inflation, both of which reflect changes in current market prices for goods and services. However, the nominal CPI inflation rate is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, while the PCE deflator is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.<b>As a general indicator, the PCE deflator also has its unique advantages: the composition of expenditures in the PCE deflator is flexibly adjusted according to residents' actual consumption behavior, which allows the PCE indicator to reflect changes in expenditures in a more timely and comprehensive manner.</b></p><p><b>Table 1: Key characteristics of nominal CPI inflation and PCE deflator</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3737025597820922cbc35ee4409b7f7e\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Looking back, these two inflation indicators track each other.<b>。 Due to the existence of sampling differences, the trend of the PCE deflation index is relatively moderate.</b>However, judging from the past correlation between the two,<b>The sampling difference did not change the main trends in the core CPI inflation rate and the core PCE deflator.</b>On the other hand, although the nominal CPI inflation rate may gradually decline in the coming months due to the high base effect, the peak of the core CPI inflation rate and the core PCE deflator may be delayed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b10b312280e256cf22cf4adaabb2e10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Figure 4: We believe that the nominal CPI inflation rate will decline faster than the core CPI inflation rate.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ff3f09d9505d6c283a5cb27d16b12e\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>04<b>The core PCE deflator remains high.</b></p><p>Changes in the PCE deflation index at different times have their corresponding driving factors. For example, the shift in consumer spending caused by the outbreak of the pandemic, coupled with the rise in durable goods prices caused by the disruption of the global supply chain, is the originator of this round of inflation in the United States. The rise in prices of non-durable goods, represented by food and energy, further opened the \"Pandora's box\" of this round of US inflation, which remains high to this day.<b>In the post-pandemic era (since the second half of 2021), rising rental prices and service prices have once again become the \"backbone\" of high inflation.</b></p><p><b>Figure 5: Rent has become the main driver of inflation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a9504b8634188a442dfa3724a39ceb\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding rents, according to statistics from Zillow, a publicly traded real estate company in the United States, the U.S. rent index rose by as much as 11% year-on-year in September, far exceeding the 3.8% before the start of COVID-19. The rent item in the core PCE deflator also saw its largest increase since 2008 (7%) in September.</p><p>On the other hand, rising labor costs may also lead to a continued rise in service sector inflation in the medium to long term. Qualtrics conducted a survey of more than 1,000 full-time employees in August and September of this year, and the results showed that the rising cost of living has forced them to look for more ways to increase their overall income. Until inflation falls significantly, we tend to believe that rising wages may drive service sector inflation to continue rising.</p><p><b>Table 2: U.S. employees are looking for more ways to increase their income</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c9b159a10afc48c087f49093316f0e\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>05<b>Medical price index is undecided</b></p><p>Data shows that US inflation appears to have improved thanks to the Federal Reserve's policy intervention, but the market should not be complacent. The rise in medical prices amid inflation may last longer than expected. Unlike generally sold goods, it is difficult to make timely adjustments to the prices of medical-related services and goods based on product quality and supply and demand. The calculation and feedback cycle of medical care and health insurance prices is usually in years.</p><p>After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, some patients inevitably chose to postpone their medical visits or surgeries in order to avoid the risk of contracting COVID-19 as much as possible. Patients will choose to resume medical treatment only after a vaccine is produced and the epidemic is under control. Considering that the resulting price adjustments for healthcare and insurance services will occur after a full year of service, the price adjustments for healthcare services resulting from the resumption of medical treatment by residents in 2021 will only gradually become apparent one year later. The chart below also confirms this view: the healthcare-related CPI inflation rate began to soar in the fourth quarter of 2021, and in September 2022, it rose by 6%, the largest increase in at least the past 20 years. According to previous estimates, the rapid rise in medical price inflation should come to an end in the fourth quarter of this year. However, it will take time for medical prices to fall from their highs, and the magnitude of the decline should not be overestimated because medical workers' wages have risen.</p><p><b>Figure 6: High medical prices have also led to worsening inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbf9e0af8f72e3910edbfa3082cb59e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Overall, the currently known high healthcare inflation and frequent regional conflicts resulting in energy and supply chain instability will remain major obstacles to inflation easing, and it is unlikely that the core PCE deflator will fall to the ideal level expected by the Federal Reserve in the short term.</b></p><p>06<b>The monetary policy outlook remains hawkish.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that market anxiety will not be alleviated by the easing of overall inflation in the coming months. Because the Federal Reserve focuses on core inflation, especially the core PCE deflator, it will maintain a tight monetary policy unless core inflation declines significantly. More importantly, the Federal Reserve also aims to restore the medium-term inflation rate (the core PCE deflator) to 2%.</p><p>On the other hand, even if the core PCE deflator improves in the short term, the Federal Reserve typically needs several quarters to wait and see before deciding whether to take further action.<b>In conclusion, at this stage, we still recommend that the market remain cautious about the outlook for US monetary policy and consider the upward trend in bond yields.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5MTc0NzY0NA==&mid=2650790968&idx=1&sn=94b016522117f5d028fdfe00ff331324&chksm=887cd86bbf0b517d4ecced8aaf21e8f2d81ba98b693efdf17981a2dbccbd0a1e5f61f57edaab&scene=126&&sessionid=1666320001\">国泰君安证券</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5039c00e2524041bac78c85ef0962e3","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 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PCE）却仍然高于历史趋势。展望未来，过剩储蓄（财政补贴导致）耗尽之际，我们才可能看到个人消费逐步回落至历史趋势，从而从根本上缓解通胀的压力。美联储在制定货币政策时更倾向于盯住另外一个被广泛应用的价格指标——核心PCE平减指数，因为它可以灵活地反映出物价对消费者行为的影响。这意味着衡量核心CPI通胀率和核心PCE平减指数之间的动态变化也很重要。我们认为总体通胀率在今年年底的时候将从6月峰值的9.1%降至7.4%，核心CPI通胀率预计也将稳定在6.4%左右，与过去几十年高位（6.6%）大致相同。这也就是说，今年最后一个季度核心PCE平减指数将会保持在一个较高的水平。由于美联储关注核心通胀数据尤其是核心PCE平减指数，所以除非核心通胀显著下降，否则美联储仍将维持紧缩的货币政策。01 大规模补贴刺激需求端受到新冠疫情冲击后，美国以大规模的经济补贴来安抚普通民众。从经济学角度分析，如此规模宏大的经济补贴势必导致严重的通货膨胀。实际来看，疫情及贸易摩擦在某种程度上终止了全球商品供应的增长趋势，而美国采用的经济补贴式抗疫政策却变相地提高了居民需求，供需失衡下通胀也就自然发生。圣·路易斯联储搭建了图1所示的美国居民可支配收入与居民消费支出（Personal Consumption Expenditure, PCE）之间的变化模型来探究美国通胀的现状与预期走势。从下图可以看出，自2020年3月以来，美国居民的可支配收入较疫情前累计增长高达1.5万亿美元，而其中超过8,000亿美元是政府在2020至2021年间向居民支付的“经济补贴”。图 1:美国居民可支配收入与个人消费支出的关系（基于2012年不变价）目前来看，随着疫情的稳定，居民收入增长趋势已经回归到疫情前水平并趋平稳，而PCE却仍然高于历史趋势。从某种程度上来说，展望未来，过剩储蓄（财政补贴导致）耗尽之际，我们才可能看到个人消费逐步回落至历史趋势，从而从根本上缓解通胀的压力。02 两个指标和而不同虽然美国名义通胀率在近几个月有所缓解，但是核心CPI通胀率却已然攀升至40年来的最高水平，这表明通胀压力已从能源和食品价格向服务业蔓延。美联储在制定货币政策时更倾向于使用另外一个被广泛应用的价格指标——核心PCE平减指数，因为它可以灵活地反映出物价对消费者行为的影响。这意味着衡量核心CPI通胀率和核心PCE平减指数之间的动态变化也很重要。名义CPI通胀率和PCE平减指数是衡量通货膨胀的两个主要指标，它们都反映了当前市场商品和服务价格的变动。但是名义CPI通胀率是由美国劳工统计局公布的，而PCE平减指数则是由经济分析局公布。作为一个泛用指标，PCE平减指数也具有其独特的优势，即PCE平减指数中支出的构成是根据居民实际的消费行为进行灵活调整的，这使得PCE指标可以更及时全面地反映开支的变化。表1：名义CPI通胀率和PCE平减指数的主要特征回顾过去，这两个通胀指标互相追踪。由于抽样差异的存在，PCE平减指数走势相对温和。但是从二者过去的相关性看，抽样差异并没有改变核心CPI通胀率和核心PCE平减指数的主要变化趋势。另一方面，虽然在高基数效应的影响下，未来几个月名义CPI 通胀率可能会逐步下行，但核心CPI 通胀率和核心PCE 平减指数的峰值可能会有所延迟。图4：我们认为名义CPI通胀率下降的速度将领先于核心CPI通胀率04 核心PCE平减指数居高不下不同时期的PCE平减指数的变化都有其相应的推动因素，比如由疫情爆发引起的居民消费者支出转变叠加全球供应链断裂引起的耐用品价格上涨是美国本轮通胀的始作俑者；而以食品和能源为代表的非耐用品价格上涨则进一步打开了本轮美国通胀的“潘多拉魔盒”，时至今日也依然居高不下；后疫情时代（2021年下半年以来），租房价格和服务价格的上涨又成为了通胀高企的“中坚力量”。图 5：房租已经成为了推高通胀的主要驱动力房租方面，根据美国上市房地产公司Zillow的统计数据，美国9月的租金指数同比上涨高达11%，远高于新冠开始之前的3.8%；9月核心PCE平减指数中的房租项也创下了2008年以来的最大涨幅（7%）。另一方面，劳动力成本的上涨也可能使得服务业通胀在中长期持续上涨。美国Qualtrics公司在今年8月及9月对超过1,000名全职雇员进行了一项调查，结果显示不断升高的生活成本使得他们不得不寻求更多的方式来提高他们的整体收入。在通胀显著回落之前，我们倾向于认为工资上涨可能会推动服务业通胀持续走高。表 2：美国雇员正寻求更多的方式来提高收入05 医疗价格指数悬而未决从数据上看，在美联储政策的干预下，美国通胀似乎有所好转，但是市场仍不可以掉以轻心。通胀中医疗价格的上涨可能比想象的更持久。与一般销售商品不同，医疗相关服务及商品的价格很难针对产品的质量及供需关系做出及时的调整，医疗保健和健康保险价格的计算及反馈周期通常要以年为单位。2020年疫情爆发后，必然有部分病人选择推迟看病或者手术时间，以尽量规避感染新冠的风险。在疫苗产生及疫情得到控制后，病人才会选择恢复就医。考虑到由此导致的医疗保健及保险服务价格调整会在一整年服务结束后发生，因此由2021年居民恢复就医导致的医疗服务价格的调整在一年后才会逐步显现。下图也印证了这个观点，医疗相关CPI通胀率在2021年第四季度开始飞涨，并在2022年9月以6%的涨幅创下了至少过去20年的最大幅度。按照之前推算，医疗价格通胀率的快速攀升应该在今年第四季度告一段落。但医疗价格从高点回落也需要时间，同时因为医务工作者工资上升，对其回落的幅度也不可过分高估。图 6：高企的医疗价格也导致了通胀的恶化总体而言，当下已知的医疗通胀高企、频发的地区冲突导致的能源及供应链的不稳定仍然会成为通胀缓解的重大阻力，短期内核心PCE平减指数很难降到美联储期望的理想水平。06 货币政策前景依然趋向鹰派展望未来，我们认为市场的焦虑情绪并不会因为未来几个月总体通胀的缓和而缓解。由于美联储关注核心通胀尤其是核心PCE平减指数，所以除非核心通胀显著下降，否则美联储仍将维持紧缩的货币政策。更重要的是，美联储还旨在将中期通胀率（核心PCE平减指数）恢复到2%。另一方面，即使短期内核心PCE平减指数有所改善，美联储也通常需要数个季度的时间来观望以决定是否采取进一步措施。总而言之，现阶段我们仍建议市场对美国货币政策前景维持谨慎态度，并考虑债券收益率存在的上行倾向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QID":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,".IXIC":0.87,"DJX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".DJI":0.87,"SQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPY":0.87,"OEX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983976301,"gmtCreate":1666143570503,"gmtModify":1676537712610,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983976301","repostId":"2276127021","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2276127021","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1666099502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2276127021?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-18 21:25","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Vietnam Storm: Richest woman arrested, bank run, what happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2276127021","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"10月8日，曾高调与李嘉诚合作的越南地产大亨张美兰突然被捕，警方称其相关公司涉嫌非法发行债券，筹集了数万亿越南盾。该消息在业界引起轩然大波，不仅导致越南大型银行遭遇挤兑，还拉崩了越南股市。今年以来，越","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On October 8, Vietnamese real estate tycoon Truong Mei Lan, who had previously collaborated with Li Ka-shing in a high-profile manner, was suddenly arrested. Police said his related companies were suspected of illegally issuing bonds and raising trillions of Vietnamese dong.</p><p>This news caused a huge uproar in the industry, not only leading to a bank run on major Vietnamese banks but also dragging down the Vietnamese stock market.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the Vietnamese government has launched a financial anti-corruption campaign and intensified its efforts to rectify the real estate market. Against this backdrop, several Vietnamese real estate tycoons, including Truong Mei Lan, were imprisoned.</p><p>As Vietnam's policies and financial environment continue to tighten, which company will be the next to collapse?</p><p><h2><b>The richest Chinese woman in Vietnam was arrested, and large banks suffered a bank run.</b></h2>Truong Mei Lan, a fourth-generation Chinese in Vietnam, with ancestral roots in Shantou, Guangdong Province, is the founder of Wan Sheng Fa Group. The group's business covers real estate, transportation infrastructure and other fields, and it is the largest private real estate company in Vietnam.</p><p>Since Wanshengfa Group has not yet gone public, no one knows exactly how much money Zhang Meilan has, but she is generally referred to as the richest Chinese woman in Vietnam.</p><p>On October 8, Vietnamese police announced the detention of Truong Mei Lan and other related individuals, alleging that they illegally issued bonds between 2018 and 2019, raising trillions of Vietnamese dong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abbde54e97e940fea6f0a372f525459\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Subsequently, rumors about Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) being involved in the case spread on Vietnamese social media, triggering a bank run on Vietnam’s fifth-largest bank.</p><p>To reassure the market and depositors, Vietnamese regulators said last Saturday that they would conduct a “special review” of SCB, which has raised interest rates to attract depositors again.</p><p>Nguyen Thi Hong, Governor of the Central Bank of Vietnam, immediately stepped in to explain.<b>SCB has confirmed that Anton Company (the company involved in Zhang Meilan's illegal bond issuance) is not a shareholder of SCB Bank, and Zhang Meilan does not hold a management position at the bank. Therefore, Zhang Meilan's arrest will not affect the normal operation of SCB Bank.</b></p><p>Nguyen Thi Hong stated that the bank has taken \"necessary measures\" to ensure the normal operation of Saigon Commercial Bank and its liquidity.</p><p>The central bank's endorsement temporarily quelled the bank run, but Truong Mei Lan's arrest highlights the serious risks facing Vietnam's entire economy.</p><p><h2><b>Real estate tycoons were arrested one after another</b></h2>In fact, before Zhang Meilan, several real estate tycoons had already been arrested in Vietnam for illegal activities, and related real estate groups had successively collapsed. The two most famous cases were Xin Huangming and FLC Group.</p><p>At the end of 2021, New Huang Minh Group won a land auction organized by Shu Thien New District in Ho Chi Minh City for 24.5 trillion Vietnamese dong.</p><p>Prior to the auction, New Huang Minh Group had issued nine bonds with a total value of 10 trillion Vietnamese dong. However, the buyer was New Huangming Group itself. The new emperor packaged these bonds into investable derivatives and then lured investors into buying them by promising high returns.</p><p>Less than two months after the successful bid, New Huangming Group quietly announced its withdrawal from the transaction, causing investors who purchased the product to lose everything.</p><p>On April 4, the Vietnam Securities Commission canceled the issuance of these nine bonds, citing discrepancies between the published information and the actual situation and the concealment of issuance information. On April 5, the investigation agency of the Vietnamese Ministry of Public Security prosecuted and detained Do Anh Dung, chairman of Xin Huang Minh Group, and six others on charges of \"fraud and embezzlement of other people's property\".</p><p>Since the Xin Huang Minh incident, the Vietnamese government has launched a financial anti-corruption campaign, initiating a comprehensive review of all bond issuers. Against this backdrop, Zhang Meilan was arrested.</p><p>In addition to Do Anh Dung and Truong Mei Lan, Truong Van Duc, chairman of Vietnamese real estate developer FLC Group, was arrested in March of this year on suspicion of manipulating the securities market.</p><p><h2>Housing prices are out of control, and the government is accelerating the tightening of credit.</h2>As the government vigorously rectifies the real estate industry, Vietnamese real estate prices are almost out of control.</p><p>According to an earlier report by the Securities Times, in the first half of 2022, housing price increases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's largest city, and Hanoi, the capital, ranked among the top ten in Asia. Among them, Ho Chi Minh City's housing price increased by more than 20% in the first half of the year, with an average price exceeding 35,000 yuan. Some media outlets also reported that in April 2022, housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City had already reached their highest level in 10 years.</p><p>In recent years, with Vietnam's accelerated economic growth and continuous development of its manufacturing sector, a large amount of hot money has poured into the real estate market, and land and housing prices have continued to soar.</p><p>In an effort to cool down the real estate market, the Vietnamese government has begun to tighten credit policies.</p><p>In May 2022, the Ho Chi Minh City branch of the Central Bank of Vietnam required all credit institutions in the city to strictly control credit approvals in the real estate sector. In addition, several banks, including the Vietnam Foreign Trade Bank and the Vietnam Science and Technology and Commerce Joint Stock Bank, also announced restrictions on loans related to real estate business.</p><p>In August 2022, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh stated that supervision of bond sales by real estate companies would be strengthened to prevent speculation and price manipulation.</p><p>In September 2022, Tao Minh Thu, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Vietnam, made it clear that the central bank would strengthen its review of bank loans, especially in risky areas such as real estate projects.</p><p><h2><b>Bank bad debt ratios have rebounded and capital adequacy ratios have declined, posing numerous hidden dangers to the financial industry.</b></h2>Truong Mei Lan's arrest highlights the risks in Vietnam's real estate market and also exposes the fragility of the Southeast Asian country's financial sector.</p><p>According to CEIC Data, Vietnam's bank capital adequacy ratio has been declining in recent years. By June 2022, Vietnam's bank capital adequacy ratio had dropped from a high of 14.3% in May 2013 to 11.5%, of which the asset adequacy ratio of state-owned banks was only 8.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32df409eb9144d772a6714e6ec6162a0\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bank bad debt rates have also begun to rebound.</p><p>According to data previously provided by Tao Minh Xiu, Vietnam's bank bad debt rate was approximately 1.9% in 2021, higher than 1.7% in 2020. According to media reports, as of June this year, the non-performing loan ratio of listed banks in Vietnam had climbed slightly to around 2.1%.</p><p>In 2012, a lending boom and inadequate regulation led to a surge in bad debts in Vietnamese banks, the arrest of bank executives, and a sharp drop in the stock market. At that time, the non-performing loan ratio was 17%.</p><p><h2><b>The Vietnamese dong continues to depreciate, raising debt risks.</b></h2>In addition, the debt burden on Vietnam's economy, households, and businesses is rising.</p><p>As of the second quarter of this year, Vietnam's total debt was approximately US$160 billion, which is equivalent to 1.5 times its foreign exchange.</p><p><b>On Monday, the Central Bank of Vietnam announced that it would expand the trading range of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar from 3% to 5%.</b>This shows that Vietnam is willing to tolerate further weakening of the Vietnamese dong.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike has put pressure on emerging market currencies, and the Vietnamese dong has not been spared. Although the economy has provided some support for the exchange rate, the Vietnamese dong has fallen by nearly 7% against the US dollar so far this year and is currently trading at a historical low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85a32a5efc61b172d6a3d02b93170a46\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To defend the exchange rate, the Central Bank of Vietnam was forced to conduct a large rate hike and sell off a large number of dollars.</p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point rate hike in mid-September, the Central Bank of Vietnam announced an emergency rate hike of 100 basis points on September 26 to stabilize its foreign exchange market, marking the first rate hike since the outbreak of the pandemic in September 2020.</p><p>Vietnam has been selling off dollars in recent months, and as of September, its foreign exchange reserves had fallen from 109.6 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 101.4 billion US dollars.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vietnam Storm: Richest woman arrested, bank run, what happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVietnam Storm: Richest woman arrested, bank run, what happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-18 21:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On October 8, Vietnamese real estate tycoon Truong Mei Lan, who had previously collaborated with Li Ka-shing in a high-profile manner, was suddenly arrested. Police said his related companies were suspected of illegally issuing bonds and raising trillions of Vietnamese dong.</p><p>This news caused a huge uproar in the industry, not only leading to a bank run on major Vietnamese banks but also dragging down the Vietnamese stock market.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the Vietnamese government has launched a financial anti-corruption campaign and intensified its efforts to rectify the real estate market. Against this backdrop, several Vietnamese real estate tycoons, including Truong Mei Lan, were imprisoned.</p><p>As Vietnam's policies and financial environment continue to tighten, which company will be the next to collapse?</p><p><h2><b>The richest Chinese woman in Vietnam was arrested, and large banks suffered a bank run.</b></h2>Truong Mei Lan, a fourth-generation Chinese in Vietnam, with ancestral roots in Shantou, Guangdong Province, is the founder of Wan Sheng Fa Group. The group's business covers real estate, transportation infrastructure and other fields, and it is the largest private real estate company in Vietnam.</p><p>Since Wanshengfa Group has not yet gone public, no one knows exactly how much money Zhang Meilan has, but she is generally referred to as the richest Chinese woman in Vietnam.</p><p>On October 8, Vietnamese police announced the detention of Truong Mei Lan and other related individuals, alleging that they illegally issued bonds between 2018 and 2019, raising trillions of Vietnamese dong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abbde54e97e940fea6f0a372f525459\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Subsequently, rumors about Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) being involved in the case spread on Vietnamese social media, triggering a bank run on Vietnam’s fifth-largest bank.</p><p>To reassure the market and depositors, Vietnamese regulators said last Saturday that they would conduct a “special review” of SCB, which has raised interest rates to attract depositors again.</p><p>Nguyen Thi Hong, Governor of the Central Bank of Vietnam, immediately stepped in to explain.<b>SCB has confirmed that Anton Company (the company involved in Zhang Meilan's illegal bond issuance) is not a shareholder of SCB Bank, and Zhang Meilan does not hold a management position at the bank. Therefore, Zhang Meilan's arrest will not affect the normal operation of SCB Bank.</b></p><p>Nguyen Thi Hong stated that the bank has taken \"necessary measures\" to ensure the normal operation of Saigon Commercial Bank and its liquidity.</p><p>The central bank's endorsement temporarily quelled the bank run, but Truong Mei Lan's arrest highlights the serious risks facing Vietnam's entire economy.</p><p><h2><b>Real estate tycoons were arrested one after another</b></h2>In fact, before Zhang Meilan, several real estate tycoons had already been arrested in Vietnam for illegal activities, and related real estate groups had successively collapsed. The two most famous cases were Xin Huangming and FLC Group.</p><p>At the end of 2021, New Huang Minh Group won a land auction organized by Shu Thien New District in Ho Chi Minh City for 24.5 trillion Vietnamese dong.</p><p>Prior to the auction, New Huang Minh Group had issued nine bonds with a total value of 10 trillion Vietnamese dong. However, the buyer was New Huangming Group itself. The new emperor packaged these bonds into investable derivatives and then lured investors into buying them by promising high returns.</p><p>Less than two months after the successful bid, New Huangming Group quietly announced its withdrawal from the transaction, causing investors who purchased the product to lose everything.</p><p>On April 4, the Vietnam Securities Commission canceled the issuance of these nine bonds, citing discrepancies between the published information and the actual situation and the concealment of issuance information. On April 5, the investigation agency of the Vietnamese Ministry of Public Security prosecuted and detained Do Anh Dung, chairman of Xin Huang Minh Group, and six others on charges of \"fraud and embezzlement of other people's property\".</p><p>Since the Xin Huang Minh incident, the Vietnamese government has launched a financial anti-corruption campaign, initiating a comprehensive review of all bond issuers. Against this backdrop, Zhang Meilan was arrested.</p><p>In addition to Do Anh Dung and Truong Mei Lan, Truong Van Duc, chairman of Vietnamese real estate developer FLC Group, was arrested in March of this year on suspicion of manipulating the securities market.</p><p><h2>Housing prices are out of control, and the government is accelerating the tightening of credit.</h2>As the government vigorously rectifies the real estate industry, Vietnamese real estate prices are almost out of control.</p><p>According to an earlier report by the Securities Times, in the first half of 2022, housing price increases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's largest city, and Hanoi, the capital, ranked among the top ten in Asia. Among them, Ho Chi Minh City's housing price increased by more than 20% in the first half of the year, with an average price exceeding 35,000 yuan. Some media outlets also reported that in April 2022, housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City had already reached their highest level in 10 years.</p><p>In recent years, with Vietnam's accelerated economic growth and continuous development of its manufacturing sector, a large amount of hot money has poured into the real estate market, and land and housing prices have continued to soar.</p><p>In an effort to cool down the real estate market, the Vietnamese government has begun to tighten credit policies.</p><p>In May 2022, the Ho Chi Minh City branch of the Central Bank of Vietnam required all credit institutions in the city to strictly control credit approvals in the real estate sector. In addition, several banks, including the Vietnam Foreign Trade Bank and the Vietnam Science and Technology and Commerce Joint Stock Bank, also announced restrictions on loans related to real estate business.</p><p>In August 2022, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh stated that supervision of bond sales by real estate companies would be strengthened to prevent speculation and price manipulation.</p><p>In September 2022, Tao Minh Thu, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Vietnam, made it clear that the central bank would strengthen its review of bank loans, especially in risky areas such as real estate projects.</p><p><h2><b>Bank bad debt ratios have rebounded and capital adequacy ratios have declined, posing numerous hidden dangers to the financial industry.</b></h2>Truong Mei Lan's arrest highlights the risks in Vietnam's real estate market and also exposes the fragility of the Southeast Asian country's financial sector.</p><p>According to CEIC Data, Vietnam's bank capital adequacy ratio has been declining in recent years. By June 2022, Vietnam's bank capital adequacy ratio had dropped from a high of 14.3% in May 2013 to 11.5%, of which the asset adequacy ratio of state-owned banks was only 8.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32df409eb9144d772a6714e6ec6162a0\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bank bad debt rates have also begun to rebound.</p><p>According to data previously provided by Tao Minh Xiu, Vietnam's bank bad debt rate was approximately 1.9% in 2021, higher than 1.7% in 2020. According to media reports, as of June this year, the non-performing loan ratio of listed banks in Vietnam had climbed slightly to around 2.1%.</p><p>In 2012, a lending boom and inadequate regulation led to a surge in bad debts in Vietnamese banks, the arrest of bank executives, and a sharp drop in the stock market. At that time, the non-performing loan ratio was 17%.</p><p><h2><b>The Vietnamese dong continues to depreciate, raising debt risks.</b></h2>In addition, the debt burden on Vietnam's economy, households, and businesses is rising.</p><p>As of the second quarter of this year, Vietnam's total debt was approximately US$160 billion, which is equivalent to 1.5 times its foreign exchange.</p><p><b>On Monday, the Central Bank of Vietnam announced that it would expand the trading range of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar from 3% to 5%.</b>This shows that Vietnam is willing to tolerate further weakening of the Vietnamese dong.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike has put pressure on emerging market currencies, and the Vietnamese dong has not been spared. Although the economy has provided some support for the exchange rate, the Vietnamese dong has fallen by nearly 7% against the US dollar so far this year and is currently trading at a historical low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85a32a5efc61b172d6a3d02b93170a46\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>To defend the exchange rate, the Central Bank of Vietnam was forced to conduct a large rate hike and sell off a large number of dollars.</p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point rate hike in mid-September, the Central Bank of Vietnam announced an emergency rate hike of 100 basis points on September 26 to stabilize its foreign exchange market, marking the first rate hike since the outbreak of the pandemic in September 2020.</p><p>Vietnam has been selling off dollars in recent months, and as of September, its foreign exchange reserves had fallen from 109.6 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 101.4 billion US dollars.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672642\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f8f6c97358d94e8f412ab6e762bd75","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672642","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2276127021","content_text":"10月8日，曾高调与李嘉诚合作的越南地产大亨张美兰突然被捕，警方称其相关公司涉嫌非法发行债券，筹集了数万亿越南盾。该消息在业界引起轩然大波，不仅导致越南大型银行遭遇挤兑，还拉崩了越南股市。今年以来，越南政府掀起了一场金融反腐风暴，加大力度整顿房地产市场。在这样的背景下，包括张美兰在内的多个越南地产大佬锒铛入狱。而随着越南政策和金融环境持续收紧，下一个暴雷的会是哪家企业呢？越南华人女首富被捕，大型银行遭遇挤兑张美兰，越南第四代华人，祖籍广东省汕头，是万盛发集团创始人，该集团的业务覆盖房地产、交通基础设施等领域，是越南最大的私营房地产企业。由于万盛发集团还没上市，没人清楚张美兰到底有多少钱，但普遍称她为越南华人女首富。10月8日，越南警方宣布拘留张美兰和其他相关人员，称其涉嫌在2018年至2019年期间非法发行债券，筹集了数万亿越南盾。此后，有关西贡商业银行（SCB）与该案有关的传言在越南社交媒体上传播，引发了对这家越南第五大银行的挤兑。为了安抚市场和储户，越南监管机构在上周六表示，将对SCB进行“特别审查”，而SCB则提高了利率，以重新吸引储户。越南央行行长阮氏红立即出面解释称，SCB已经确认安东公司（张美兰非法发行债券相关企业）不是SCB银行的股东，张美兰也没有担任该银行的管理职务。所以，张美兰捕不影响SCB银行的正常运营。阮氏红表示，该行已采取“必要措施”确保西贡商业银行的正常运作和银行的流动性。央行的背书使该挤兑风波得以暂时平息，但张美兰被捕则凸显了越南整个经济所面临的严重风险。地产大亨相继被捕实际上，在张美兰之前，已经有多个地产大佬因为违法行为在越南被捕，相关地产集团相继暴雷，其中最著名的两个案例就是新皇明和FLC集团。2021年年底，新皇明集团以245000亿越南盾中标了胡志明市守添新区组织的一场土地拍卖。而在竞拍之前，新皇明集团先后发行9次债券，总价值高达10万亿越南盾。然而，买方却是新皇明集团自己。新皇明把这些债券打包成可以投资的衍生品，然后通过许诺高收益等手段诱骗投资者购买。竞拍成功后不到两个月，新皇明集团悄悄宣布退出交易，导致购买该产品的投资人血本无归。4月4日，越南国家证券委员会以公示信息与实际不符、隐藏发行信息为由，取消这9只债券的发行。4月5日，越南公安部调查机构以“诈骗侵占他人财产罪”为由对新皇明集团董事长杜英勇及相关6人进行起诉、拘留。自新皇明事件开始，越南政府掀起了一场金融反腐风暴，开始全面审查各债券发行企业。在这一背景下，张美兰被捕。另外，除了杜英勇和张美兰，越南房地产开发商FLC集团董事长郑文决今年3月因涉嫌操纵证券市场被拘捕。房价失控、政府加快收紧信贷力度在政府大力整顿房地产行业之际，越南房地产价格几乎接近失控状态。据证券时报早前报道，2022年上半年，越南第一大城市胡志明和首都河内的房价涨幅挤进了亚洲前十，其中胡志明市上半年房价涨幅超过20%，均价超过3.5万元人民币。也有媒体报道称，2022年4月，胡志明市房价就已经创下10年来历史最高水平。近年来，随着越南经济加速增长，制造业不断发展，大量热钱涌入房地产市场，地价和房价持续飙升。为了给房地产市场降温，越南政府开始收紧信贷政策。2022年5月，越南央行胡志明市分行要求市区各信贷机构须严管房地产领域的信贷审批，此外，越南外贸银行、越南科技及商业股份银行等多家银行也陆续宣布，限制发放给房地产业务相关的贷款。2022年8月，越南副总理黎文成表示，将加强对房企债券销售的监督，以避免投机和价格操纵。2022年9月，越南央行副行长陶明秀明确表态，央行将加强对银行贷款的审查，特别是在房地产项目等风险领域。银行坏账率反弹、资本充足率下滑，金融业隐患重重张美兰被捕凸显了越南房地产的风险，同时也暴露出这个东南亚国家金融业的脆弱。环亚经济数据（CEIC Data）资料显示，越南的银行资本充足率近年来持续下降，到2022年6月，越南的银行资本充足率已经从2013年5月14.3%的高位下降至11.5%，其中，国有银行资产充裕率仅有8.9%。银行坏账率也开始反弹。根据陶明秀此前提供的数据，越南2021年银行坏账率约为1.9%，高于2020年的1.7%。据媒体报道，截至今年6月份，越南上市银行的不良贷款率小幅攀升至2.1%左右。而在2012年，放贷热潮和监管不力导致越南银行坏账激增，银行高管被捕，股市暴跌。当时不良贷款率为17%。越南盾汇率持续贬值，债务风险攀升此外，越南的经济、家庭和企业的债务负担正在上升。截至今年二季度，越南的债务总额约1600亿美元，债务规模相当于外汇的1.5倍。周一，越南央行宣布将越南盾兑美元的交易区间从之前的3%扩大至5%。这表明越南愿意容忍越南盾进一步走软。今年以来，美联储的激进加息使新兴市场货币普遍承压，越南盾也无法避免。虽然经济对汇率形成一定支撑，越南盾兑美元汇率今年迄今仍累跌近7%，目前在历史最低点运行。为捍卫汇率，越南央行被迫进行大幅加息，并大量抛售美元。美联储9月中旬加息75基点后，越南央行为稳定本国汇市，在9月26日宣布紧急加息100基点，为2020年9月疫情爆发后以来首次加息。越南近几个月以来一直在抛售美元，截至9月，越南的外储已经从年初的1096亿元降至1014亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FVNmain":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989730234,"gmtCreate":1666078815228,"gmtModify":1676537702540,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098842610598930","authorIdStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989730234","repostId":"1182942032","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182942032","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666060939,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182942032?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-18 10:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is it wise for the market to bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates ahead of schedule and to buy the dip early?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182942032","media":"第一财经","summary":"纽约联储模型显示，明年衰退概率逼近疫情峰值。对于衰退的担忧正使投资者对于未来的政策路径的判断与美联储之间产生偏离。市场开始押注，美联储为应对物价压力将前置加息，随后提前“投降”降息。芝商所（CME）利","content":"<p><div>The New York Fed's model shows that the probability of a recession next year is approaching the peak of the pandemic. Concerns about a recession are causing investors to deviate from the Federal Reserve's assessment of future policy paths. The market has begun betting that the Federal Reserve will implement rate hike in advance to cope with price pressures, and then \"surrender\" and cut interest rates ahead of schedule. The CME group (CME) FedWatch indicates that the median Fed interest rate will reach 4.95% in May next year, and the interest rate range may return to below 4.50%-4.75% by the end of the year. Behind the recent market volatility, the competition between funds is becoming increasingly fierce. The Federal Reserve (Source: Xinhua News Agency photo) announced in advance...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is it wise for the market to bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates ahead of schedule and to buy the dip early?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs it wise for the market to bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates ahead of schedule and to buy the dip early?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-18 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The New York Fed's model shows that the probability of a recession next year is approaching the peak of the pandemic. Concerns about a recession are causing investors to deviate from the Federal Reserve's assessment of future policy paths. The market has begun betting that the Federal Reserve will implement rate hike in advance to cope with price pressures, and then \"surrender\" and cut interest rates ahead of schedule. The CME group (CME) FedWatch indicates that the median Fed interest rate will reach 4.95% in May next year, and the interest rate range may return to below 4.50%-4.75% by the end of the year. Behind the recent market volatility, the competition between funds is becoming increasingly fierce. The Federal Reserve (Source: Xinhua News Agency photo) announced in advance...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101564762.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182942032","content_text":"纽约联储模型显示，明年衰退概率逼近疫情峰值。对于衰退的担忧正使投资者对于未来的政策路径的判断与美联储之间产生偏离。市场开始押注，美联储为应对物价压力将前置加息，随后提前“投降”降息。芝商所（CME）利率观察工具（FedWatch）显示，本轮美联储利率中值将在明年5月达到4.95%，年末利率区间或回到4.50%-4.75%以下。近期市场脉冲行情背后，资金博弈日趋白热化。美联储（来源：新华社图）提前抄底是否明智花旗认为，股市短期将继续面临更多下行压力。标普500指数预期市盈率已从年初的近22倍降至16倍左右，但仍高于2007-2009年金融危机期间的10倍左右。“现在是大多数公司遇到过的最困难的宏观预测环境之一。”摩根士丹利资管投资组合经理斯莱蒙（Andrew Slimmon）表示，通常情况下，标普500指数35%的企业股息收益率高于2年期国债，目前这一比例现在要小得多，约为11%。斯莱蒙表示，在2年期美债收益率高于4%的情况下，美股反击很难取得很大进展。“除非收益率曲线的短端压力有所缓解，否则我看不到股市会走出像样的行情。”Refinitiv调查（来源：Refinitiv）据Refinitiv Lipper的统计，在诸多不确定性环境下，传统股票基金已连续35周出现资金净流出。与此同时，美银全球基金经理月度调查显示，机构将其平均现金余额增至20多年来的最高水平。随着财报季展开，商业活动降温对企业运营的影响正在展开，目前市场预计标普500指数成份股三季度净利润增长为4.6%，较7月初大幅下修，考虑到包括半导体、零售等行业多家公司近期发布业绩预警，未来的数据可能会进一步调降。不过近期多次出现的脉冲行情也给了投资者希望。不少观点认为，随着美联储加息步伐有望放缓，风险偏好回归有望迎来市场修复行情。另一方面，从目前的盈利预期看，三季度有望成为近两年业绩的低点。历史数据显示，一旦市场走出熊市，袖手旁观最终可能会付出代价。富国银行一项研究发现，如果投资者错过了过去30年中20个涨幅最大的交易日，他们的年平均回报率将从每年7.8%降至3.2%。 高盛指出，在美股触底后，指数短期往往会迎来强劲的上涨。自1980年以来，标普500指数在所经历的八次熊市出现低谷后的一个月内，平均回报率为16%。财富管理公司Stifel首席股票策略师班尼斯特（Barry Bannister）预计，标准普尔500指数正在触底，市场在今年第四季度至2023年初之间将出现积极的催化剂。“在年末最后两次美联储会议期间，我们确实看到了政策立场微妙变化的可能性，这将使投资者更加关注（改善）通胀数据，而不是政策本身。另一方面，季节性因素不容忽视，从11月到次年4月，美股的历史表现历来强劲。”报告写道。利率期货显示明年降息美股正在努力摆脱熊市的泥潭，经济前景和美联储政策预期依然短期风险偏好的最大敌人。为了遏制高涨的通胀压力，美联储已经采取了上世纪80年代以来最激进的货币政策，但收效甚微。作为其评估未来通胀趋势的关键指标，美国9月核心CPI意外升至6.6%，刷新年内新高。拐点预期被进一步推后，分项指标中，上月医疗费用同比增长6%，为1993年以来的最大增幅，住房租金增长7.2%，为1982年以来新高，食品价格同比增长13%，比肩上世纪70年代。短暂回落的能源价格近期也止跌回升，OPEC+减产决定令美国燃料油价格一周上涨近6%。美联储官员近期在公开表态中频频强调实现长期通胀目标的决心，严峻的形势也让外界上调了对本轮联邦基金利率终点的判断。巴克莱预计美联储可能会加息至5.00-5.25%，德意志银行美国经济学家魏德纳（Justin Weidner）认为，考虑到美联储加强了控制通胀的承诺，利率峰值将达到4.75%-5.00%。然而加息周期下的经济放缓压力正在增加，同时购物者消费预期受到了影响。随着年末假日季来临，Adobe Analytics表示，今年全美在线假日销售额预计将达到2097亿美元，同比增长2.5%，创2012年以来新低，远不及去年8.6%的增速。资产管理机构BK Asset Management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表示，从目前的情况看，劳动力市场很健康，保障了经济的活力，但购买力下滑的影响将进一步显现。从零售数据看，去除物价因素后支出增长仅为0.1%，通胀似乎变得根深蒂固。美联储需要将利率提高到什么水平才能达到价格稳定的目的，现在谁也没有确定的答案。另一方面，货币政策收紧的影响还会波及信用卡消费。施罗斯伯格向记者分析道，随着政府财政支持的资金逐渐消耗，美国民众的私人储蓄率再次回到低位，不少人开始被迫通过信用卡维持开销，利率上升产生的利息压力将进一步限制这些群体的消费选择，给经济带来更大下行压力。在美联储内部，目前的主流观点认为，货币政策需要保持在限制性区间一段时间，才能实现通胀降温的目标，过早降息对经济的风险更大，多位官员甚至明确否认了明年降息的可能性。外界对美国经济前景的担忧愈发明显，摩根大通CEO戴蒙上周发出警告称，未来6-9个月美国将陷入衰退，纽约联储模型显示，明年8月衰退的概率已经达到25.1%，正在逼近2020年疫情期间的峰值39%。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，目前2/10年期美债倒挂比此前四次衰退更为严重。美联储并没有明确接受以衰退为代价实现其目标，因为这将给金融市场和公众信心带来负面影响，并可能意想不到的潜在破坏性后果。市场预期明年末美联储利率中值4.6%（来源：芝商所网站）美联储副主席布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）近日提到了货币政策对经济影响的滞后性，在某个时刻暂停评估之前的政策行动是重要的，称情况可能发生变化。施瓦茨认为，由于现在的加息周期非常紧凑，经济不太可能及时反映政策的全部影响，考虑到未来货币政策依赖于数据，意味着明年加息步伐将逐渐放缓并结束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":263702872891472,"gmtCreate":1705416359020,"gmtModify":1705416361631,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/622961d6a4b8ad33ad20f7da471763d0","width":"1044","height":"1683"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/263702872891472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"content":"Thks for Sharing [fuels] [fuels] [fuels] [handshakes]","text":"Thks for Sharing [fuels] [fuels] [fuels] [handshakes]","html":"Thks for Sharing [fuels] [fuels] [fuels] [handshakes]"},{"author":{"id":"4088837488367880","authorId":"4088837488367880","name":"Snow wwww","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6effde3b6dd8906e7dbf2faa91428dbb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4088837488367880","idStr":"4088837488367880"},"content":"buy the dip will upto $40 [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","text":"buy the dip will upto $40 [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","html":"buy the dip will upto $40 [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937379640,"gmtCreate":1663375251380,"gmtModify":1676537260602,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937379640","repostId":"2267690068","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2267690068","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663336320,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2267690068?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 21:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! Is rate hike 75 or 100 basis points? The dot plot is the focus.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2267690068","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美联储将于北京时间9月22日凌晨公布利率决议，华尔街目前预计美联储加息100个基点的几率为20%，而宣布加息75个基点的几率为80%。除此之外，彭博社调查的经济学家称，美联储官员将在下周发出更加强硬的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early hours of September 22 Beijing time. Wall Street currently expects a 20% chance of the Fed announcing a 100 basis point rate hike, while an 80% chance of announcing a 75 basis point rate hike. In addition, economists surveyed by Bloomberg say that Federal Reserve officials will signal a more hawkish stance next week, with interest rates expected to reach 4% by December and remain at this high level until 2023.</p><p><b>Will the terminal interest rate reach 4.25%?</b></p><p>The survey shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time next Thursday. This will raise the benchmark target range for the policy interest rate to 3% - 3.25%. The Federal Reserve's forecast released at this meeting is expected to show that the upper limit of the interest rate range will be 4% before the end of the year, with a slight increase expected next year, and interest rates will fall back to 3.6% after rate cuts begin in 2024.</p><p>This forecast is significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's June forecast, reflecting the Fed's tougher crackdown on inflation after CPI growth exceeded expectations in August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4a6eebeb77fa6f4b9112a03992a976\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target and will not stop its efforts prematurely in the face of weak economic data. The better-than-expected U.S. August CPI data released on Tuesday strengthened the case for taking more proactive action.</p><p>Robert Dent, senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities International, said: \"We expect the Federal Reserve to continue its rate hike until realized inflation declines, and the August CPI data adds significant urgency to the Fed's task. The longer inflation remains high, the more concerned people are about wage prices spiraling up and/or inflation expectations rising because they cannot be anchored.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its rate hike by 75 basis points next week, as better-than-expected August CPI data outweighed the decline in PPI data. In an investor report, Bank of America stated, \"We now expect the Federal Reserve to rate hike rates of 75 and 50 basis points in September and November, respectively, followed by rate hike of 25 basis points each in December and February next year, with a final rate of 4.00-4.25%.\"</p><p>Bank of America added, \"We believe the Federal Reserve will signal early next year that it will raise the terminal funds rate to 4.0-4.25%, 37.5 basis points higher than in June. We expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement to indicate that monetary policy will enter restrictive territory, which the committee expects to remain in that state 'for some time,' similar to the tone of Chairman Powell's speech in Jackson Hole.\"</p><p>Bloomberg's chief U.S. economist, Anna Wong, stated, \"The 'dot plot' will show that terminal interest rates will be higher in 2023. We believe terminal interest rates will rise to around 4.2%, compared to 3.8% in September-June. Furthermore, the decline in interest rates in 2024 will not be as sharp as expected in September-June. Interest rates in 2024 may fall to around 3.8%-4%, compared to the 3.4% expected in September-June.\"</p><p><b>The dot plot will be the focus.</b></p><p>Powell has been vague about how high interest rates might rise, and said in July that the Federal Reserve would formulate policy “meeting by meeting.” This makes dot plot forecasts for target interest rates a major focus for investors at next week's meeting.</p><p>Economists expect the interest rate path set by the FOMC next week to be less aggressive than the market had anticipated. Investors have fully priced in the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point rate hike next Wednesday and expect interest rates to rise further by one percentage point to around 4.23% by the end of the year. Economists' own forecasts are largely consistent with those derived from the Federal Reserve's Economic Forecast Summary, which predicts that interest rates will peak at 4% in December and then decline in 2024.</p><p>Powell is trying to steer the U.S. economy toward a \"soft landing,\" where economic growth slows, the labor market remains strong, and inflation weakens. The survey shows that this will be reflected in the FOMC's economic growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 – both of which are significantly lower than in June, with the unemployment rate rising from 3.7% reported in August to 4.2% in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b391b02bc4f1e88cf9739f29d0f395f5\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Hugh Johnson, chairman of Hugh Johnson Economics LLC, said, \"Federal Reserve policy remains focused on inflation, and there is little evidence that policy will respond to slowing economic/employment data or declining inflation.\"</p><p>Inflation remains the core issue driving Federal Reserve policy. The FOMC is likely to maintain its forecast for inflationary pressures and projects inflation rates of 5.2%, 2.6%, and 2.2% in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. This means that the Federal Reserve will not be able to achieve its long-term inflation target of 2% until 2025.</p><p>Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve will remain flexible on its rate hike plan, while the FOMC had only provided appropriate accommodative guidance for sustained rate hike in its previous statement. Three-quarters of economists expect the FOMC to reiterate this guidance, while the remaining majority believe the FOMC may indicate that it expects the pace of rate hikes to slow, echoing Powell's recent public statements.</p><p>Two-thirds of economists also expect a unanimous decision this month that the FOMC will maintain a united front on Powell's actions to combat inflation.</p><p><b>What about the shrinking balance sheet plan?</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's plan to shrink its balance sheet is less clear. This month, the amount of exits allowed for maturing securities rose to about $1.1 trillion per year. Economists expect the balance sheet to shrink to $8.4 trillion by the end of this year, and to fall to $6.6 trillion by December 2024, according to the median estimate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8318f98af3b11bb19d6fa3860c65ffa1\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nearly half of the respondents said that Federal Reserve officials would resort to direct sales of mortgage-backed securities, which is consistent with their stated tendency to hold only U.S. Treasury Bond for a long time. Among economists who expect a sale, there is significant disagreement about when the sale will begin, with a slight majority believing it will begin in the second quarter of 2023.</p><p><b>Can the US economy achieve a soft landing?</b></p><p>Wall Street economists continue to express concern about the possibility of a U.S. economic recession. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy due to unfavorable factors such as rising food and energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/244cc7fb519c3b9fecf311f1e2e63e1e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said: \"We believe that a longer duration, higher inflation, greater tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the negative spillover effects of the global economic weakness will collectively push the U.S. economy into a mild recession in the first half of 2023.\"</p><p>Economists have differing views on the outlook for the U.S. economy. 49% believe a recession is possible in the next two years, 33% believe zero or negative growth is possible in the near future, and the rest believe the Federal Reserve will achieve a soft landing with sustained growth and low inflation.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! Is rate hike 75 or 100 basis points? The dot plot is the focus.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! Is rate hike 75 or 100 basis points? The dot plot is the focus.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-16 21:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early hours of September 22 Beijing time. Wall Street currently expects a 20% chance of the Fed announcing a 100 basis point rate hike, while an 80% chance of announcing a 75 basis point rate hike. In addition, economists surveyed by Bloomberg say that Federal Reserve officials will signal a more hawkish stance next week, with interest rates expected to reach 4% by December and remain at this high level until 2023.</p><p><b>Will the terminal interest rate reach 4.25%?</b></p><p>The survey shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time next Thursday. This will raise the benchmark target range for the policy interest rate to 3% - 3.25%. The Federal Reserve's forecast released at this meeting is expected to show that the upper limit of the interest rate range will be 4% before the end of the year, with a slight increase expected next year, and interest rates will fall back to 3.6% after rate cuts begin in 2024.</p><p>This forecast is significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's June forecast, reflecting the Fed's tougher crackdown on inflation after CPI growth exceeded expectations in August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4a6eebeb77fa6f4b9112a03992a976\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target and will not stop its efforts prematurely in the face of weak economic data. The better-than-expected U.S. August CPI data released on Tuesday strengthened the case for taking more proactive action.</p><p>Robert Dent, senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities International, said: \"We expect the Federal Reserve to continue its rate hike until realized inflation declines, and the August CPI data adds significant urgency to the Fed's task. The longer inflation remains high, the more concerned people are about wage prices spiraling up and/or inflation expectations rising because they cannot be anchored.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its rate hike by 75 basis points next week, as better-than-expected August CPI data outweighed the decline in PPI data. In an investor report, Bank of America stated, \"We now expect the Federal Reserve to rate hike rates of 75 and 50 basis points in September and November, respectively, followed by rate hike of 25 basis points each in December and February next year, with a final rate of 4.00-4.25%.\"</p><p>Bank of America added, \"We believe the Federal Reserve will signal early next year that it will raise the terminal funds rate to 4.0-4.25%, 37.5 basis points higher than in June. We expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement to indicate that monetary policy will enter restrictive territory, which the committee expects to remain in that state 'for some time,' similar to the tone of Chairman Powell's speech in Jackson Hole.\"</p><p>Bloomberg's chief U.S. economist, Anna Wong, stated, \"The 'dot plot' will show that terminal interest rates will be higher in 2023. We believe terminal interest rates will rise to around 4.2%, compared to 3.8% in September-June. Furthermore, the decline in interest rates in 2024 will not be as sharp as expected in September-June. Interest rates in 2024 may fall to around 3.8%-4%, compared to the 3.4% expected in September-June.\"</p><p><b>The dot plot will be the focus.</b></p><p>Powell has been vague about how high interest rates might rise, and said in July that the Federal Reserve would formulate policy “meeting by meeting.” This makes dot plot forecasts for target interest rates a major focus for investors at next week's meeting.</p><p>Economists expect the interest rate path set by the FOMC next week to be less aggressive than the market had anticipated. Investors have fully priced in the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point rate hike next Wednesday and expect interest rates to rise further by one percentage point to around 4.23% by the end of the year. Economists' own forecasts are largely consistent with those derived from the Federal Reserve's Economic Forecast Summary, which predicts that interest rates will peak at 4% in December and then decline in 2024.</p><p>Powell is trying to steer the U.S. economy toward a \"soft landing,\" where economic growth slows, the labor market remains strong, and inflation weakens. The survey shows that this will be reflected in the FOMC's economic growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 – both of which are significantly lower than in June, with the unemployment rate rising from 3.7% reported in August to 4.2% in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b391b02bc4f1e88cf9739f29d0f395f5\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Hugh Johnson, chairman of Hugh Johnson Economics LLC, said, \"Federal Reserve policy remains focused on inflation, and there is little evidence that policy will respond to slowing economic/employment data or declining inflation.\"</p><p>Inflation remains the core issue driving Federal Reserve policy. The FOMC is likely to maintain its forecast for inflationary pressures and projects inflation rates of 5.2%, 2.6%, and 2.2% in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. This means that the Federal Reserve will not be able to achieve its long-term inflation target of 2% until 2025.</p><p>Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve will remain flexible on its rate hike plan, while the FOMC had only provided appropriate accommodative guidance for sustained rate hike in its previous statement. Three-quarters of economists expect the FOMC to reiterate this guidance, while the remaining majority believe the FOMC may indicate that it expects the pace of rate hikes to slow, echoing Powell's recent public statements.</p><p>Two-thirds of economists also expect a unanimous decision this month that the FOMC will maintain a united front on Powell's actions to combat inflation.</p><p><b>What about the shrinking balance sheet plan?</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's plan to shrink its balance sheet is less clear. This month, the amount of exits allowed for maturing securities rose to about $1.1 trillion per year. Economists expect the balance sheet to shrink to $8.4 trillion by the end of this year, and to fall to $6.6 trillion by December 2024, according to the median estimate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8318f98af3b11bb19d6fa3860c65ffa1\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nearly half of the respondents said that Federal Reserve officials would resort to direct sales of mortgage-backed securities, which is consistent with their stated tendency to hold only U.S. Treasury Bond for a long time. Among economists who expect a sale, there is significant disagreement about when the sale will begin, with a slight majority believing it will begin in the second quarter of 2023.</p><p><b>Can the US economy achieve a soft landing?</b></p><p>Wall Street economists continue to express concern about the possibility of a U.S. economic recession. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy due to unfavorable factors such as rising food and energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/244cc7fb519c3b9fecf311f1e2e63e1e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said: \"We believe that a longer duration, higher inflation, greater tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the negative spillover effects of the global economic weakness will collectively push the U.S. economy into a mild recession in the first half of 2023.\"</p><p>Economists have differing views on the outlook for the U.S. economy. 49% believe a recession is possible in the next two years, 33% believe zero or negative growth is possible in the near future, and the rest believe the Federal Reserve will achieve a soft landing with sustained growth and low inflation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/793484.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/793484.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2267690068","content_text":"美联储将于北京时间9月22日凌晨公布利率决议，华尔街目前预计美联储加息100个基点的几率为20%，而宣布加息75个基点的几率为80%。除此之外，彭博社调查的经济学家称，美联储官员将在下周发出更加强硬的立场信号，到12月利率将达到4%，并在2023年之前保持在这一高位水平。终端利率将达4.25%？调查显示，美联储预计将于下周四连续第三次加息75个基点。这将把政策利率基准目标区间提高到3% - 3.25%。美联储在这次会议上发布的预测预计将显示，年底前利率区间的上限为4%，明年将继续小幅上升，2024年开始降息后利率将回落至3.6%。该预测比美联储6月份的预测高出一大截，反映出在8月份CPI增速高于预期后，美联储对通胀的打击更加强硬。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%的目标，不会在经济数据走弱的情况下过早停止努力。周二公布的美国8月份CPI数据超预期，强化了采取更积极行动的理由。野村证券国际公司高级美国经济学家Robert Dent称:“我们预计美联储将继续加息，直到实现的通货膨胀率下降，8月的CPI数据为美联储的任务增加了很大的紧迫性。通货膨胀率保持在高位的时间越长，人们就越担心工资价格螺旋上升和/或通货膨胀预期无法锚定而上升。”美国银行预计美联储下周将加息75个基点，因8月CPI数据超预期盖过了PPI数据回落的因素。美国银行在一份投资者报告中表示:“我们现在预计美联储在9月和11月将分别加息75和50个基点，随后在12月和明年2月各加息25个基点，最终利率将达到4.00-4.25%。”美国银行补充称:“我们认为，美联储将在明年初发出信号，将终端基金利率上调至4.0-4.25%，比6月份高出37.5个基点。我们预计联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的声明将表示，货币政策将进入限制性区域，委员会预计将在‘一段时间内’保持这种状态，这与鲍威尔主席在杰克逊霍尔讲话的基调类似。”彭博美国首席经济学家Anna Wong称“‘点阵图’将显示，2023年的终端利率将更高。我们认为终端利率将上升到4.2%左右，而9月6月时为3.8%。此外，2024年利率的下降不会像9月6月预期的那么猛烈。2024年利率可能会下降到3.8% -4%左右，而9月6月时的预期为3.4%。”点阵图将是焦点鲍威尔对利率可能上升到多高一直含糊其词，并在7月份表示，美联储将“逐次会议”制定政策。这使得在下周的会议上，对目标利率的点阵图预测将成为投资者关注的主要焦点。经济学家预计，FOMC在下周制定的利率路径将没有市场预期的那么激进。投资者完全定价美联储下周三将加息75个基点，并预计年底前利率将进一步上升一个百分点，至4.23%左右。而经济学家自己的预测与他们从美联储的《经济预测摘要》中得出的预测基本一致，即利率将在12月达到4%的峰值，然后在2024年下降。鲍威尔正试图引导美国经济走向“软着陆”，即经济增长放缓，劳动力市场依然强劲，通货膨胀减弱。调查显示，这将反映在FOMC对2022年和2023年的经济增长预测中——这两项预测均较6月份大幅下调，失业率将从8月份报告的3.7%升至2024年的4.2%。Hugh Johnson Economics LLC董事长Hugh Johnson表示：\"美联储政策仍专注于通胀，几乎没有证据表明政策会对经济/就业数据放缓或通胀率下降作出反应。\"通货膨胀仍然是推动美联储政策的核心问题。FOMC很可能维持其对通胀压力的预测，并预计2022年、2023年和2024年的通胀率分别为5.2%、2.6%和2.2%。这意味着美联储在2025年之前都无法实现2%的长期通胀目标。鲍威尔强调，美联储将在加息计划上保持灵活，而FOMC在此前的声明中只提供了适当的持续加息的宽松指导。四分之三的经济学家预计FOMC将重申这一指导方针，而其余多数经济学家则认为FOMC可能会表示，预期升息步伐将放缓，呼应鲍威尔最近的公开声明。三分之二的经济学家也预计本月会有一致决定，FOMC将在鲍威尔对抗通胀的行动上保持统一战线。缩表计划如何？美联储缩减资产负债表的计划就没有那么明确。本月，到期证券的允许退出金额上升至每年1.1万亿美元左右。经济学家预计，到今年年底，资产负债表将缩减至8.4万亿美元，根据预估中值，到2024年12月将降至6.6万亿美元。近一半的受访者表示，美联储官员们将诉诸于直接出售抵押贷款支持证券，这与他们表示的长期只持有美国国债的倾向一致。在那些预期出售的经济学家当中，关于何时开始出售的观点存在很大分歧，略占多数的人认为将在2023年第二季度开始出售。美国经济能否软着陆？华尔街经济学家继续对美国经济衰退的可能性表示担忧。在俄乌战争导致食品和能源价格上涨等不利因素的影响下，美联储收紧了货币政策。牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Kathy Bostjancic表示:“我们认为，持续时间更长、通胀水平更高、美联储货币政策收紧力度更大，以及全球经济疲软带来的负面溢出效应，这些因素将共同推动美国经济在2023年上半年陷入温和衰退。”经济学家对美国经济前景的看法不一，49%的人认为未来两年可能出现衰退，33%的人认为未来一段时间可能出现零增长或负增长，其余的人则认为美联储将实现持续增长和低通胀的经济软着陆。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"SH":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1,".SPX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QID":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":582600774399040,"gmtCreate":1783266751950,"gmtModify":1783266754208,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]","listText":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b6328bbf1f97b0d9f64cd70e5a319d7d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/582600774399040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914388866,"gmtCreate":1665188716355,"gmtModify":1676537569117,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914388866","repostId":"1162298976","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918947277,"gmtCreate":1664320799299,"gmtModify":1676537430505,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918947277","repostId":"1140617695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140617695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664176713,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140617695?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 15:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Jobs' old capital has been eaten for 11 years: fattening Cook and thinning scalpers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140617695","media":"雪豹财经社","summary":"今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有黄牛已亏了四五十万元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>By Yan Xuegong</p><p>One scalper earned six figures this year, only a third of what he would have in previous years, but he is already considered one of the best among scalpers. This year's market is destined to yield less profit and more losses; some scalpers have already lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan. Scalpers who once made a fortune from Apple suffered a setback after the launch of the iPhone 14.</p><p>Apple, under Steve Jobs' leadership, ushered in a golden age of overnight wealth for scalpers. The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, when some dealers first discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold. The iPhone 13, released last year, became the last remnant of the scalper boom.</p><p>Apple firmly holds the title of the world's most valuable technology company, but Tim Cook, who has achieved huge commercial success at the helm of this supercarrier, still seems to have not dispelled external doubts. In the eyes of some Apple fans, Apple is losing its innovative soul and gradually becoming a mediocre wealth-creating company.</p><p>After 11 years of Steve Jobs' savings, Apple has once again faced an embarrassing moment where its reputation has failed.</p><p>The iPhone 14, criticized for \"lacking innovation and soul,\" was neglected by consumers and criticized by influential figures. It also caused scalpers who made a fortune during the Steve Jobs era to fall into a trap, with some suffering net losses of hundreds of thousands of yuan in a single day. What was once a golden apple has become a bitter fruit that many scalpers find hard to swallow.</p><p>Over the past 11 years, thanks to its dazzling brand aura and enormous business momentum, Apple has firmly held the title of the world's most valuable technology company, with revenue increasing nearly 2.5 times and market value increasing more than 6 times. However, Cook, who has taken charge of this supercarrier and achieved huge commercial success, still seems to have not dispelled external doubts.</p><p>The topic of \"Cook shedding Apple's innovation label\" sparks a wave of discussion after almost every new product release. Steve Jobs' daughter criticized the iPhone 14 as unoriginal, and economist Ren Zeping bluntly stated that \"the iPhone 14 may be a sign of Apple's rise and fall.\"</p><p>The iPhone 14's failure has awakened scalpers who were still immersed in the feast and revelry of the past. The fervor of the Jobs era still lingers, but the chill has arrived. Their immediate priority is to rush to the next battlefield and earn more profits.</p><p><b>A bet that is bound to be lost</b></p><p>\"I made thorough preparations, but I didn't expect to still lose 40,000 to 50,000 yuan.\" Ye Jingyue, who has been a scalper for three years, sighed and summarized her situation in the three days since the iPhone 14 was released.</p><p>To win the annual battle for Apple's new products, the experienced Ye Jingyue drafted a detailed plan.</p><p>At 7:00 a.m. on September 16, he and his team staked out three Apple stores in Beijing's Chaoyang Joy City, Sanlitun, and Hopson One. “Our team only has 3 people. Including the temporarily hired foreign players on the queue, there are 15 of them.”</p><p>They hired people to queue up to sell the goods for 100 yuan each. These people, who might be students or housewives, would be paid regardless of whether they got the goods or not. Ye Jingyue's team of three stood guard to the side. If the hired person snatched the phone, they would show up to pay, and then take the new phone and sell it to the users in line at a higher price.</p><p>Having done her homework, Ye Jingyue had a very clear goal. The night before Apple's launch date, he gave his foreign aides a task: \"This year, we will only grab the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, with purple being the top priority.\"</p><p>On the first day, he snagged two 14 Pros at the original price and resold them at a premium of 1,000 yuan, making a profit of 2,000 yuan. However, after acquiring more than 20 units from users at a premium of 1,500 yuan, he began to lose money. “I was very happy when I first received the phone, thinking that I would resell it at a markup of about 3,000 yuan per unit, with a profit of 1,500 yuan per unit,” he told Snow Leopard Finance. “But after I got the phone, I found that I couldn’t sell it at all.”</p><p>The price premium of Apple's new phones has plummeted faster than Ye Jingyue had imagined. By noon that day, he realized something was wrong and only offered the \"original price\" at a premium of 1,500 yuan, but no one paid any attention. On the first day, Ye Jingyue sold most of her phones at a premium of about 600 yuan, losing 20,000 yuan. In the following two days, losses gradually widened as the premium price of Apple's new iPhones plummeted in the scalper market.</p><p>Ye Jingyue is not the only scalper who has stumbled upon Apple's new products.</p><p>“The scalpers lost their bet, and there are no winners this year.” Lü Fan, who has been a mobile phone distributor since the iPhone 4 era, told Snow Leopard Finance. “The price was inflated too high before the release this year. After I got the phone before the release, my competitors set the premium for the purple version of the 14 Pro Max at around 3,000 yuan. The extremely high profits aroused the scalpers’ gambling spirit.”</p><p>The vast majority of the first batch of 14 Pros that Lü Fan received were \"snapped up\" by scalpers who marked them up by more than 1,500 yuan. \"There was nothing I could do, they gave me too much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c574cba0d5ceaa884d5e2767fe3b96b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3bed490702142b38c2567108d3af6f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Price comparison between the first day and 3 days after release. (Image source: provided by Lü Fan)</p><p>Lü Fan dealt with scalpers for a long time, and he divided the scalpers into three levels: high, medium, and low.</p><p>At the lowest level are newcomers who follow the trend, and these people have lost the most this year. Intermediate users have their own team and can snag phones at the original price. High-end scalpers can get ahead of the curve, ordering goods from distributors before they are released. Given this year's market trends, only high-level scalpers have the opportunity to make a small fortune.</p><p>Li Nan, who ordered a batch of new phones directly from the dealer, was one of the lucky ones who made a small fortune. But in his view, \"for a product like Apple, a small profit is a loss.\"</p><p>Li Nan told Snow Leopard Finance that before each order, he receives pre-orders from customer groups and personal friends to determine the quantity to be purchased. However, the number of customers booking this year has decreased significantly, \"at least by more than half.\"</p><p>Loyal customers who once paid extra to buy new Apple phones have calmed down a lot this year, and their reasons for losing enthusiasm mostly point to criticisms of the iPhone 14's lack of innovation. One customer told Li Nan, \"I don't think there's any value in showing off by being the first to receive a phone that is extremely similar to the iPhone 13 I have.\"</p><p>Apple fans should remain calm; scalpers' wallets will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Li Nan earned six figures this year, only one-third of what she earned in previous years, but she is already considered one of the best among scalpers. He told Snow Leopard Finance that this year's market is destined to yield less profit and more losses, with some competitors already losing 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.</p><p><b>Retail investors betray scalpers</b></p><p>\"Thank you, scalper.\" Liu Wei posted this on his WeChat Moments on the evening of the first day Apple's new iPhone went on sale.</p><p>That day, after buying two iPhone 14 Pros, he was stopped by scalpers at the door. They added 1,800 yuan to each phone and sold it to the other party, making a profit of 3,600 yuan.</p><p>Sensing a business opportunity, Liu Wei gathered several classmates that evening to rush to buy the iPhone 14 Pro. In his view, this was a sure-fire business. It's best to sell it to scalpers; if it doesn't sell, you can get a 14-day unconditional refund. He joked, \"There will always be scalpers taking over.\"</p><p>Individual retail investors like Liu Wei, who harvest scalpers in reverse, are known online as \"scalper hunters\". Among the foreign players in the scalper team, some have figured out the tricks and begun to \"betray\" the scalpers.</p><p>Among the foreign aides hired by Ye Jingyue who were queuing up, two of them snapped up the new phones and immediately \"betrayed\" them. They refused to let Ye Jingyue's team pay on their behalf, but instead bought the phones themselves and resold them to another wave of scalpers at a high price as soon as they left. In Ye Jingyue's view, \"I'm practically working for them.\"</p><p>In Lü Fan's eyes, the more sophisticated scalper was an Apple distributor.</p><p>In an effort to hype up the market, major distributors released information after receiving the phones, jointly driving up the prices of new products and targeting the purple iPhone 14 Pro Max as this year's \"premium king\". Not many of the first batch of premium-priced phones reached ordinary users; instead, most were sold to scalpers at high prices.</p><p>In the past, the Apple scalper market was like a funnel. The upstream distributors have a stable portion of profits and a certain premium right. Midstream scalpers profit from the price difference by reselling, while downstream users are eager to get their hands on new phones, and they are the ones who ultimately pay for the high premium.</p><p>However, the iPhone 14's poor reputation turned this hidden trading market into a game where more losers than winners. Distributors' profits remained relatively stable, but the enthusiasm of Apple fans suddenly cooled down, and the pressure was transmitted to scalpers.</p><p>Scalpers, still reluctant to wake up from the Apple feast dream of \"huge profits on a single device,\" have suddenly become targets for hunters to harvest.</p><p><b>Farewell to the Golden Age</b></p><p>Scalpers who dare to spend money to gamble on huge profits have witnessed the enormous wealth dream created by Apple iPhones.</p><p>Twelve years ago, Steve Jobs, dressed in a black sweater and jeans, appeared holding an iPhone 4, becoming a milestone in the history of smartphones and ushering in the golden age of scalpers.</p><p>\"The iPhone 4 is a groundbreaking product, and the market is incredibly enthusiastic. A phone that costs 5,000 yuan can be resold for 15,000 yuan no matter what channel you get it from.\" Lü Fan, a graduate of a 985 university, sensed a business opportunity and started a business reselling Apple phones. At that time, in order to rush to buy Apple phones, scalpers set up tents and waited 48 hours in advance in Sanlitun and Joy City in Beijing.</p><p>As Apple's flagship device, the first batch of iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units within three days of its launch, and demand exceeded supply. At that time, the first sale in the domestic market was about four months late, and scalpers made a fortune by taking advantage of this time difference.</p><p>Lü Fan told Snow Leopard Finance that he discovered that Apple stores in Hong Kong were limited to five units per person, so he organized a group of people to fly to Hong Kong to queue up. The largest order earned him hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"Back then, even a slightly more diligent scalper team could earn a million yuan in three months, which was considered a small amount.\" Even when the iPhone 4S was launched a year later, you still had to pay an extra 1,000 yuan to buy an iPhone 4 from scalpers.</p><p>The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, which was the first time Lü Fan discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold.</p><p>Lü Fan, who was already an Apple distributor at the time, recalled that the iPhone 8 did not sell very well, queues at Apple stores and in Zhongguancun decreased significantly, and many scalpers who hoarded goods at high prices lost money.</p><p>It was at this time that criticism of Apple's lack of innovation began to rise. From the iPhone 5 to the iPhone 8, several generations of Apple products have been criticized for being too similar in appearance, like \"four generations under one roof,\" without any substantial innovation in functionality.</p><p>The highly anticipated iPhone X delivered a slap in the face to scalpers with a more lukewarm market response. Users are not buying into this so-called \"unprecedented smartphone,\" and the iPhone X's two most proud innovations—full-screen display and facial recognition—are considered to be no longer originals.</p><p>Scalpers lost money, and Apple suffered even worse losses. Following poor sales of the iPhone X, Apple repeatedly cut production, causing its stock price to plummet by more than 7% at one point, wiping out over $60 billion in market value.</p><p>The iPhone X has been met with a lukewarm reception, and Apple's innovation capabilities have been brought down from their pedestal, leaving scalpers with increasingly smaller opportunities to profit from price differences. A new phone usually costs a few hundred yuan more, which is a far cry from the difficulty in obtaining one before the iPhone 6S, which often doubled in price.</p><p>The iPhone 13, released last year, became the last remnant of the scalper boom.</p><p>At that time, there was a global chip shortage, and Apple was facing a supply chain crisis. The supply and demand relationship during this special period has given scalpers an opportunity to take advantage of it. Ye Jingyue later summarized, \"It wasn't that the iPhone 13 was particularly popular, but rather that Apple didn't have enough stock in the first place, which made that time a good opportunity to make money.\"</p><p>But the iPhone 14 wasn't so lucky. On the one hand, the new phone has been criticized for being almost indistinguishable from its predecessor, with \"slow Dynamic Island,\" multiple bugs exposed, and new features repeatedly failing. On the other hand, Cook learned from his lesson and paid more attention to the supply chain management of the iPhone 14, resulting in a very ample supply of the new model. Some netizens said that the new Pro version will arrive in about half a month.</p><p>This means that the fertile ground for scalpers to make money is becoming increasingly barren.</p><p><b>A turning point of rise and fall?</b></p><p>After staying up all night watching this year's new product launches, Apple enthusiast Hu Yiwen made up his mind not to spend extra money on scalpers to buy new phones this year.</p><p>She has bought all iPhone models except the iPhone 14, and has paid more than once for the first new model. In her view, taking the lead in showing off the latest iPhone is not about showing off wealth, but about reflecting a pursuit of top-notch new technology consumer products. \"It's very geeky.\" But the iPhone 14 made her feel that \"stealing such overly similar models is not geeky at all.\"</p><p>This is certainly not a good thing for Cook, who is widely recognized as being more conservative than ambitious.</p><p>Since \"Extraordinary\" was adopted as Apple's slogan in 1997, innovation has been regarded as the soul of Apple. During the Steve Jobs era, Apple launched more than one groundbreaking product, thus firmly establishing itself as the top tech company.</p><p>However, since Cook became CEO in 2011, Apple has rarely made any groundbreaking innovations, and has even gradually degenerated from a leader to a follower. The successful iPhone 6 marked Apple's first large-screen phone and is seen as following in the footsteps of brands like Samsung. The iPhone 14's Dynamic Island and other features have also been accused of plagiarizing Android manufacturers.</p><p>Economist Ren Zeping bluntly stated on social media that \"Apple is living off Steve Jobs' past achievements,\" and even believed that 2022 was a turning point in Apple's rise and fall.</p><p>Undeniably, in terms of sales volume and company market capitalization, Apple under Cook's leadership has achieved great success. Part of the reason is that Apple phones, which were once expensive, have begun to \"bow down\" in pricing.</p><p>Hu Yiwen noted that starting with the iPhone 11, Apple phones have become \"cheaper\".</p><p>On the one hand, the starting price of the iPhone 11 has dropped from 6,499 yuan for its predecessor, the iPhone XR, to 5,499 yuan. On the other hand, the prices of flagship Android phones continue to rise, with the OPPO Find X2 Pro starting at 5,999 yuan and the Xiaomi 10 Ultra starting at 5,299 yuan, on par with or even higher than the iPhone. Since then, Apple has continued its strategy of not raising prices for new phones.</p><p>Today, Jobs' legacy is still enough to feed Apple for a while. According to Counterpoint Research, in Q2 2022, Apple still held more than half of the high-end smartphone market, setting a new record for the iPhone since 2007 with a market share of 57%, and capturing more than 60% of global mobile phone profits.</p><p>Even Apple fans like Hu Yiwen won't easily abandon Apple. Despite the lack of innovation, the stable annual hardware (mainly chip) updates and stable software systems still hold great appeal for them.</p><p>In other words, the enormous momentum created during the Jobs era was enough to keep the Apple empire, which was somewhat mediocre in terms of innovation, moving forward by inertia. But as Apple's halo fades, the chilly cicada that knows autumn has already faintly smelled the chill and sensed the consequences of a lack of innovation.</p><p>For Lü Fan, a mobile phone distributor who relies on Apple for a living, Apple remains the main source of his revenue. \"Whether the scalpers fail or not does not affect all of this; the sun will rise as usual.\"</p><p>Scalpers who profit from scarcity and time differences have no time to grieve over this. Their immediate priority is to rush to the next battlefield and earn more profits.</p><p>Ye Jingyue has now focused all her efforts on the Huawei Mate 50. He told Snow Leopard Finance that the premium level of Huawei's new phones has always been relatively stable. Currently, even the lowest model costs an extra 1,000 yuan, and the rarest Porsche model has been resold for more than 25,000 yuan, nearly double the original price (12,999 yuan).</p><p>For Apple, which still stands at the top of the global software and hardware integration pyramid, the iPhone 14 is unlikely to be the swan song. But the final chapter in the scalpers' dream of getting rich quick may be a prelude to the end of Apple's easy win.</p><p>(All characters in this article are pseudonyms)</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1634697401643","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs' old capital has been eaten for 11 years: fattening Cook and thinning scalpers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs' old capital has been eaten for 11 years: fattening Cook and thinning scalpers\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪豹财经社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-26 15:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>By Yan Xuegong</p><p>One scalper earned six figures this year, only a third of what he would have in previous years, but he is already considered one of the best among scalpers. This year's market is destined to yield less profit and more losses; some scalpers have already lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan. Scalpers who once made a fortune from Apple suffered a setback after the launch of the iPhone 14.</p><p>Apple, under Steve Jobs' leadership, ushered in a golden age of overnight wealth for scalpers. The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, when some dealers first discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold. The iPhone 13, released last year, became the last remnant of the scalper boom.</p><p>Apple firmly holds the title of the world's most valuable technology company, but Tim Cook, who has achieved huge commercial success at the helm of this supercarrier, still seems to have not dispelled external doubts. In the eyes of some Apple fans, Apple is losing its innovative soul and gradually becoming a mediocre wealth-creating company.</p><p>After 11 years of Steve Jobs' savings, Apple has once again faced an embarrassing moment where its reputation has failed.</p><p>The iPhone 14, criticized for \"lacking innovation and soul,\" was neglected by consumers and criticized by influential figures. It also caused scalpers who made a fortune during the Steve Jobs era to fall into a trap, with some suffering net losses of hundreds of thousands of yuan in a single day. What was once a golden apple has become a bitter fruit that many scalpers find hard to swallow.</p><p>Over the past 11 years, thanks to its dazzling brand aura and enormous business momentum, Apple has firmly held the title of the world's most valuable technology company, with revenue increasing nearly 2.5 times and market value increasing more than 6 times. However, Cook, who has taken charge of this supercarrier and achieved huge commercial success, still seems to have not dispelled external doubts.</p><p>The topic of \"Cook shedding Apple's innovation label\" sparks a wave of discussion after almost every new product release. Steve Jobs' daughter criticized the iPhone 14 as unoriginal, and economist Ren Zeping bluntly stated that \"the iPhone 14 may be a sign of Apple's rise and fall.\"</p><p>The iPhone 14's failure has awakened scalpers who were still immersed in the feast and revelry of the past. The fervor of the Jobs era still lingers, but the chill has arrived. Their immediate priority is to rush to the next battlefield and earn more profits.</p><p><b>A bet that is bound to be lost</b></p><p>\"I made thorough preparations, but I didn't expect to still lose 40,000 to 50,000 yuan.\" Ye Jingyue, who has been a scalper for three years, sighed and summarized her situation in the three days since the iPhone 14 was released.</p><p>To win the annual battle for Apple's new products, the experienced Ye Jingyue drafted a detailed plan.</p><p>At 7:00 a.m. on September 16, he and his team staked out three Apple stores in Beijing's Chaoyang Joy City, Sanlitun, and Hopson One. “Our team only has 3 people. Including the temporarily hired foreign players on the queue, there are 15 of them.”</p><p>They hired people to queue up to sell the goods for 100 yuan each. These people, who might be students or housewives, would be paid regardless of whether they got the goods or not. Ye Jingyue's team of three stood guard to the side. If the hired person snatched the phone, they would show up to pay, and then take the new phone and sell it to the users in line at a higher price.</p><p>Having done her homework, Ye Jingyue had a very clear goal. The night before Apple's launch date, he gave his foreign aides a task: \"This year, we will only grab the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, with purple being the top priority.\"</p><p>On the first day, he snagged two 14 Pros at the original price and resold them at a premium of 1,000 yuan, making a profit of 2,000 yuan. However, after acquiring more than 20 units from users at a premium of 1,500 yuan, he began to lose money. “I was very happy when I first received the phone, thinking that I would resell it at a markup of about 3,000 yuan per unit, with a profit of 1,500 yuan per unit,” he told Snow Leopard Finance. “But after I got the phone, I found that I couldn’t sell it at all.”</p><p>The price premium of Apple's new phones has plummeted faster than Ye Jingyue had imagined. By noon that day, he realized something was wrong and only offered the \"original price\" at a premium of 1,500 yuan, but no one paid any attention. On the first day, Ye Jingyue sold most of her phones at a premium of about 600 yuan, losing 20,000 yuan. In the following two days, losses gradually widened as the premium price of Apple's new iPhones plummeted in the scalper market.</p><p>Ye Jingyue is not the only scalper who has stumbled upon Apple's new products.</p><p>“The scalpers lost their bet, and there are no winners this year.” Lü Fan, who has been a mobile phone distributor since the iPhone 4 era, told Snow Leopard Finance. “The price was inflated too high before the release this year. After I got the phone before the release, my competitors set the premium for the purple version of the 14 Pro Max at around 3,000 yuan. The extremely high profits aroused the scalpers’ gambling spirit.”</p><p>The vast majority of the first batch of 14 Pros that Lü Fan received were \"snapped up\" by scalpers who marked them up by more than 1,500 yuan. \"There was nothing I could do, they gave me too much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c574cba0d5ceaa884d5e2767fe3b96b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3bed490702142b38c2567108d3af6f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Price comparison between the first day and 3 days after release. (Image source: provided by Lü Fan)</p><p>Lü Fan dealt with scalpers for a long time, and he divided the scalpers into three levels: high, medium, and low.</p><p>At the lowest level are newcomers who follow the trend, and these people have lost the most this year. Intermediate users have their own team and can snag phones at the original price. High-end scalpers can get ahead of the curve, ordering goods from distributors before they are released. Given this year's market trends, only high-level scalpers have the opportunity to make a small fortune.</p><p>Li Nan, who ordered a batch of new phones directly from the dealer, was one of the lucky ones who made a small fortune. But in his view, \"for a product like Apple, a small profit is a loss.\"</p><p>Li Nan told Snow Leopard Finance that before each order, he receives pre-orders from customer groups and personal friends to determine the quantity to be purchased. However, the number of customers booking this year has decreased significantly, \"at least by more than half.\"</p><p>Loyal customers who once paid extra to buy new Apple phones have calmed down a lot this year, and their reasons for losing enthusiasm mostly point to criticisms of the iPhone 14's lack of innovation. One customer told Li Nan, \"I don't think there's any value in showing off by being the first to receive a phone that is extremely similar to the iPhone 13 I have.\"</p><p>Apple fans should remain calm; scalpers' wallets will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Li Nan earned six figures this year, only one-third of what she earned in previous years, but she is already considered one of the best among scalpers. He told Snow Leopard Finance that this year's market is destined to yield less profit and more losses, with some competitors already losing 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.</p><p><b>Retail investors betray scalpers</b></p><p>\"Thank you, scalper.\" Liu Wei posted this on his WeChat Moments on the evening of the first day Apple's new iPhone went on sale.</p><p>That day, after buying two iPhone 14 Pros, he was stopped by scalpers at the door. They added 1,800 yuan to each phone and sold it to the other party, making a profit of 3,600 yuan.</p><p>Sensing a business opportunity, Liu Wei gathered several classmates that evening to rush to buy the iPhone 14 Pro. In his view, this was a sure-fire business. It's best to sell it to scalpers; if it doesn't sell, you can get a 14-day unconditional refund. He joked, \"There will always be scalpers taking over.\"</p><p>Individual retail investors like Liu Wei, who harvest scalpers in reverse, are known online as \"scalper hunters\". Among the foreign players in the scalper team, some have figured out the tricks and begun to \"betray\" the scalpers.</p><p>Among the foreign aides hired by Ye Jingyue who were queuing up, two of them snapped up the new phones and immediately \"betrayed\" them. They refused to let Ye Jingyue's team pay on their behalf, but instead bought the phones themselves and resold them to another wave of scalpers at a high price as soon as they left. In Ye Jingyue's view, \"I'm practically working for them.\"</p><p>In Lü Fan's eyes, the more sophisticated scalper was an Apple distributor.</p><p>In an effort to hype up the market, major distributors released information after receiving the phones, jointly driving up the prices of new products and targeting the purple iPhone 14 Pro Max as this year's \"premium king\". Not many of the first batch of premium-priced phones reached ordinary users; instead, most were sold to scalpers at high prices.</p><p>In the past, the Apple scalper market was like a funnel. The upstream distributors have a stable portion of profits and a certain premium right. Midstream scalpers profit from the price difference by reselling, while downstream users are eager to get their hands on new phones, and they are the ones who ultimately pay for the high premium.</p><p>However, the iPhone 14's poor reputation turned this hidden trading market into a game where more losers than winners. Distributors' profits remained relatively stable, but the enthusiasm of Apple fans suddenly cooled down, and the pressure was transmitted to scalpers.</p><p>Scalpers, still reluctant to wake up from the Apple feast dream of \"huge profits on a single device,\" have suddenly become targets for hunters to harvest.</p><p><b>Farewell to the Golden Age</b></p><p>Scalpers who dare to spend money to gamble on huge profits have witnessed the enormous wealth dream created by Apple iPhones.</p><p>Twelve years ago, Steve Jobs, dressed in a black sweater and jeans, appeared holding an iPhone 4, becoming a milestone in the history of smartphones and ushering in the golden age of scalpers.</p><p>\"The iPhone 4 is a groundbreaking product, and the market is incredibly enthusiastic. A phone that costs 5,000 yuan can be resold for 15,000 yuan no matter what channel you get it from.\" Lü Fan, a graduate of a 985 university, sensed a business opportunity and started a business reselling Apple phones. At that time, in order to rush to buy Apple phones, scalpers set up tents and waited 48 hours in advance in Sanlitun and Joy City in Beijing.</p><p>As Apple's flagship device, the first batch of iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units within three days of its launch, and demand exceeded supply. At that time, the first sale in the domestic market was about four months late, and scalpers made a fortune by taking advantage of this time difference.</p><p>Lü Fan told Snow Leopard Finance that he discovered that Apple stores in Hong Kong were limited to five units per person, so he organized a group of people to fly to Hong Kong to queue up. The largest order earned him hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"Back then, even a slightly more diligent scalper team could earn a million yuan in three months, which was considered a small amount.\" Even when the iPhone 4S was launched a year later, you still had to pay an extra 1,000 yuan to buy an iPhone 4 from scalpers.</p><p>The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, which was the first time Lü Fan discovered that Apple's new opportunities were cold.</p><p>Lü Fan, who was already an Apple distributor at the time, recalled that the iPhone 8 did not sell very well, queues at Apple stores and in Zhongguancun decreased significantly, and many scalpers who hoarded goods at high prices lost money.</p><p>It was at this time that criticism of Apple's lack of innovation began to rise. From the iPhone 5 to the iPhone 8, several generations of Apple products have been criticized for being too similar in appearance, like \"four generations under one roof,\" without any substantial innovation in functionality.</p><p>The highly anticipated iPhone X delivered a slap in the face to scalpers with a more lukewarm market response. Users are not buying into this so-called \"unprecedented smartphone,\" and the iPhone X's two most proud innovations—full-screen display and facial recognition—are considered to be no longer originals.</p><p>Scalpers lost money, and Apple suffered even worse losses. Following poor sales of the iPhone X, Apple repeatedly cut production, causing its stock price to plummet by more than 7% at one point, wiping out over $60 billion in market value.</p><p>The iPhone X has been met with a lukewarm reception, and Apple's innovation capabilities have been brought down from their pedestal, leaving scalpers with increasingly smaller opportunities to profit from price differences. A new phone usually costs a few hundred yuan more, which is a far cry from the difficulty in obtaining one before the iPhone 6S, which often doubled in price.</p><p>The iPhone 13, released last year, became the last remnant of the scalper boom.</p><p>At that time, there was a global chip shortage, and Apple was facing a supply chain crisis. The supply and demand relationship during this special period has given scalpers an opportunity to take advantage of it. Ye Jingyue later summarized, \"It wasn't that the iPhone 13 was particularly popular, but rather that Apple didn't have enough stock in the first place, which made that time a good opportunity to make money.\"</p><p>But the iPhone 14 wasn't so lucky. On the one hand, the new phone has been criticized for being almost indistinguishable from its predecessor, with \"slow Dynamic Island,\" multiple bugs exposed, and new features repeatedly failing. On the other hand, Cook learned from his lesson and paid more attention to the supply chain management of the iPhone 14, resulting in a very ample supply of the new model. Some netizens said that the new Pro version will arrive in about half a month.</p><p>This means that the fertile ground for scalpers to make money is becoming increasingly barren.</p><p><b>A turning point of rise and fall?</b></p><p>After staying up all night watching this year's new product launches, Apple enthusiast Hu Yiwen made up his mind not to spend extra money on scalpers to buy new phones this year.</p><p>She has bought all iPhone models except the iPhone 14, and has paid more than once for the first new model. In her view, taking the lead in showing off the latest iPhone is not about showing off wealth, but about reflecting a pursuit of top-notch new technology consumer products. \"It's very geeky.\" But the iPhone 14 made her feel that \"stealing such overly similar models is not geeky at all.\"</p><p>This is certainly not a good thing for Cook, who is widely recognized as being more conservative than ambitious.</p><p>Since \"Extraordinary\" was adopted as Apple's slogan in 1997, innovation has been regarded as the soul of Apple. During the Steve Jobs era, Apple launched more than one groundbreaking product, thus firmly establishing itself as the top tech company.</p><p>However, since Cook became CEO in 2011, Apple has rarely made any groundbreaking innovations, and has even gradually degenerated from a leader to a follower. The successful iPhone 6 marked Apple's first large-screen phone and is seen as following in the footsteps of brands like Samsung. The iPhone 14's Dynamic Island and other features have also been accused of plagiarizing Android manufacturers.</p><p>Economist Ren Zeping bluntly stated on social media that \"Apple is living off Steve Jobs' past achievements,\" and even believed that 2022 was a turning point in Apple's rise and fall.</p><p>Undeniably, in terms of sales volume and company market capitalization, Apple under Cook's leadership has achieved great success. Part of the reason is that Apple phones, which were once expensive, have begun to \"bow down\" in pricing.</p><p>Hu Yiwen noted that starting with the iPhone 11, Apple phones have become \"cheaper\".</p><p>On the one hand, the starting price of the iPhone 11 has dropped from 6,499 yuan for its predecessor, the iPhone XR, to 5,499 yuan. On the other hand, the prices of flagship Android phones continue to rise, with the OPPO Find X2 Pro starting at 5,999 yuan and the Xiaomi 10 Ultra starting at 5,299 yuan, on par with or even higher than the iPhone. Since then, Apple has continued its strategy of not raising prices for new phones.</p><p>Today, Jobs' legacy is still enough to feed Apple for a while. According to Counterpoint Research, in Q2 2022, Apple still held more than half of the high-end smartphone market, setting a new record for the iPhone since 2007 with a market share of 57%, and capturing more than 60% of global mobile phone profits.</p><p>Even Apple fans like Hu Yiwen won't easily abandon Apple. Despite the lack of innovation, the stable annual hardware (mainly chip) updates and stable software systems still hold great appeal for them.</p><p>In other words, the enormous momentum created during the Jobs era was enough to keep the Apple empire, which was somewhat mediocre in terms of innovation, moving forward by inertia. But as Apple's halo fades, the chilly cicada that knows autumn has already faintly smelled the chill and sensed the consequences of a lack of innovation.</p><p>For Lü Fan, a mobile phone distributor who relies on Apple for a living, Apple remains the main source of his revenue. \"Whether the scalpers fail or not does not affect all of this; the sun will rise as usual.\"</p><p>Scalpers who profit from scarcity and time differences have no time to grieve over this. Their immediate priority is to rush to the next battlefield and earn more profits.</p><p>Ye Jingyue has now focused all her efforts on the Huawei Mate 50. He told Snow Leopard Finance that the premium level of Huawei's new phones has always been relatively stable. Currently, even the lowest model costs an extra 1,000 yuan, and the rarest Porsche model has been resold for more than 25,000 yuan, nearly double the original price (12,999 yuan).</p><p>For Apple, which still stands at the top of the global software and hardware integration pyramid, the iPhone 14 is unlikely to be the swan song. But the final chapter in the scalpers' dream of getting rich quick may be a prelude to the end of Apple's easy win.</p><p>(All characters in this article are pseudonyms)</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-26/doc-imqqsmrp0494572.shtml\">雪豹财经社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f2cbfd4e34e8ec82c7adfe60fe60a9","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-26/doc-imqqsmrp0494572.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140617695","content_text":"文/闫学功一位黄牛今年赚了六位数，只有往年的三分之一，但在黄牛党中已算佼佼者。今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有黄牛已亏了四五十万元。曾靠苹果赚得盆满钵满的黄牛们在iPhone 14推出后栽了跟头。乔布斯掌舵下的苹果，曾为黄牛构筑了一夜暴富的黄金时代。转折点发生在iPhone 8推出时，有经销商头一次发现苹果新机遇冷。而去年发布的iPhone 13，成了黄牛生意热潮最后的余温。苹果稳坐全球市值最高科技公司宝座，但执掌这艘超级航母取得巨大商业成功的库克，却似乎仍未打消外界的质疑。在一些果粉眼中，苹果正在失去创新的灵魂，逐渐沦为一家平庸的造富公司。乔布斯的老本吃了11年，苹果又一次迎来了口碑翻车的尴尬时刻。被诟病“毫无创新，失去灵魂”的iPhone 14，被消费者冷落，被大V吐槽，也让在乔布斯时代赚得盆满钵满的“黄牛们”踩到了坑里，有人一天净亏几十万元。曾经的金苹果，成为不少黄牛眼中难以下咽的苦果。11年来，凭借耀眼的品牌光环和巨大的商业势能，苹果稳坐全球市值最高科技公司宝座，营收增长了近2.5倍，市值涨了6倍多。但执掌这艘超级航母并取得巨大商业成功的库克，却似乎仍未打消外界的质疑。关于“库克揭下苹果创新标签”的话题，在几乎每一次新品发布后都会掀起一波讨论的热潮。乔布斯女儿吐槽iPhone 14毫无新意，经济学家任泽平直言“iPhone 14可能是苹果盛极而衰的标志”。iPhone 14的翻车，惊醒了还沉浸在昔日盛宴狂欢中的黄牛们。乔布斯时代的狂热余温尚存，但寒意已至。马不停蹄地奔赴下一个战场，赚取更多利润，才是他们的当务之急。一场必输的赌局“做了万全的准备，没想到还是亏了四五万。”做了3年黄牛的叶静跃叹了口气，总结iPhone 14发售3天以来自己的战况。为了打好一年一度的苹果新品之战，经验丰富的叶静跃拟定了一份翔实的方案。9月16日早上7点，他和他的团队便分别在北京朝阳大悦城、三里屯和合生汇的3家苹果门店蹲守。“我们团队只有3人，算上临时雇的排队外援，有15个。”他们以每人100元的价格雇人排队抢售，这些人可能是学生、家庭主妇，不管抢没抢到都会付报酬。叶静跃团队3人则在一旁蹲守，如果雇来的人抢到手机，他们就会现身付款，随后便拿着新机向排队的用户加价售卖。做足功课的叶静跃目标十分清晰。苹果发售日前一天晚上，他便给外援们下了任务：“今年只抢iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max，紫色是最优先款式。”第一天，他以原价抢到了两台14 Pro，转手加价1000元卖出，赚了2000元。但随后以1500元的溢价从用户手中收购了20多台后，他便开始亏损。“刚拿到手机时觉得很开心，想着一台加价3000元左右倒卖，每台还有1500元的利润。”他告诉雪豹财经社，“但手机到手后，发现根本卖不出去。”苹果新机溢价的跳水，比叶静跃想象中来得快。他到当天中午已经觉察不对，只以1500元溢价的“原价”吆喝，但已无人问津。第一天，叶静跃大部分手机加价600元左右卖出，亏了两万元。此后两天，随着苹果新机溢价在黄牛市场的跳水，亏损逐渐扩大。在苹果新品上栽了跟头的黄牛，远不止叶静跃一人。“黄牛们赌输了，今年没有赢家。”从iPhone 4时代开始做手机经销商的吕樊告诉雪豹财经社，“今年发售前价格被炒得太高，我在发售前拿到机子后，同行们都将14 Pro Max紫色款的溢价定在3000元左右，超高利润唤起了黄牛们的赌性。”吕樊拿到的第一批14 Pro，绝大部分被加价1500元以上的黄牛们“抢”走了，“没办法，他们给的太多了”。首日与发售3日后价格对比  图源：吕樊提供吕樊长年跟黄牛打交道，他将黄牛党分为高中低三个层级。最低层级的是跟风的新手，这些人今年赔得最惨。中级的自己有团队，能以原价抢购到手机。高级黄牛则能够先人一步，在发售前便已从销商手中订到货。按照今年的行情，只有高级黄牛才有机会小赚一笔。从经销商手中直接预订了一批新机的李楠，是小赚一笔的幸运儿之一。但在他看来，“对于苹果这种产品来说，小赚就是亏。”李楠告诉雪豹财经社，他每次订货前，都会在客户群和个人好友那里收到预订单，以此来确定进货数量。但今年预订的客户明显减少，“起码少了一大半”。曾不惜加价购买苹果新机的忠实客户今年冷静了许多，他们不再热忱的理由大多指向对iPhone 14缺乏创新的诟病。有客户告诉李楠，“我不觉得率先拿到一款与我手中iPhone 13极其相似的手机，有什么炫耀的价值。”果粉冷静，黄牛的钱包必然缩水。李楠今年赚了六位数，只有往年的1/3，但在黄牛党中已经算是佼佼者。他告诉雪豹财经社，今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有的同行已经亏了四五十万元。散户背刺黄牛“谢谢你，黄牛君。”苹果新机开售首日晚上，刘威发表了这样一条朋友圈。当天，他买到两台iPhone 14 Pro后，便被门口的黄牛拦下，每台加价1800元把手机卖给对方，赚了3600元差价。嗅到商机的刘威当晚便召集了几个同学，一起去抢购iPhone 14 Pro。在他看来，这是一桩稳赚不赔的生意。能卖给黄牛最好，卖不出去还可以14天无条件退款。他笑称，“总会有黄牛们接盘。”像刘威这样反向收割黄牛的个人散户，在网上被称为“黄牛猎手”。黄牛团队的外援中，也有人摸清了门道，开始“背刺”黄牛。叶静跃雇来排队的外援中，有两个人抢购到新机后当场“反水”，拒绝叶静跃团队代为付钱，而是自己买下手机，出门就高价转手卖给了另一波黄牛。在叶静跃看来，“我简直是在给他们打工。”吕樊眼中更高级的黄牛猎手，是苹果经销商。为了炒热市场，大经销商们在拿到手机后就对外放出消息，联合将新品价格炒到很高，并瞄定紫色iPhone 14 Pro Max为今年的“溢价王”。第一批溢价手机没有多少流到普通用户手中，而是大部分高价卖给了黄牛。以往的苹果黄牛市场就像一个漏斗。最上游的经销商拥有一部分稳定的利润和一定的溢价权。中游的黄牛通过倒买倒卖赚取差价，最下游的是急于抢先拿到新机的用户，他们是最终为高溢价买单的人。但iPhone 14的口碑翻车，让这个水面下的隐秘交易市场，变成了一个输多赢少的牌局。经销商的利润仍然相对稳定，但果粉的热情骤然降温，压力便被传导到了黄牛们身上。依旧沉浸在“一机暴利”的苹果盛宴梦中不愿醒来的黄牛，突然成了被猎手们反向收割的对象。告别黄金时代敢砸钱赌暴利的黄牛们，曾见证过苹果手机造就的巨大财富梦幻。12年前，身穿黑色毛衣、牛仔裤的乔布斯手拿iPhone 4亮相，成为智能手机历史上的里程碑，也开启了黄牛的黄金时代。“iPhone 4算是划时代的产品，市场热情的不得了，一台5000元的手机，不管任何渠道拿到，转手就是15000元卖出去。”985高校毕业的吕樊嗅到商机，做起了倒卖苹果手机的生意。当时，为了抢购苹果手机，黄牛们带着帐篷，在北京三里屯和大悦城提前48小时蹲守。作为苹果的一代神机，首批iPhone 4上市3天就售出了170万部，而且供不应求。当时，国内市场的首售时间晚了4个月左右，利用这段时间差，黄牛们赚得盆满钵满。吕樊告诉雪豹财经社，他当时发现香港的苹果店每人限购5台，于是组织了一行人坐飞机去香港排队，最大的一单赚了几十万元。“那时候稍微勤快点的黄牛团队，3个月下来赚百万都算少的。”甚至一年后iPhone 4S推出时，找黄牛买iPhone 4仍需要加价1000元。转折点发生在iPhone 8推出时，那是吕樊头一次发现苹果新机遇冷。当时已经是苹果经销商的吕樊回忆道，iPhone 8卖得不是很好，苹果门店和中关村排队的现象大幅减少，不少高价囤货的黄牛党亏了钱。也正是在这个时候，外界对苹果缺乏创新的批判甚嚣尘上。从iPhone 5到iPhone 8，苹果几代产品被吐槽外形过于相似，好比“四世同堂”，功能也没有实质性革新。被寄予厚望的iPhone X，以更冷淡的市场反应给了黄牛们一记耳光。用户对这款号称“从未有过的智能手机”并不买账，iPhone X 最得意的两个创新——全面屏和人脸识别，被认为早已不是首创。黄牛们亏钱，苹果损失更惨。iPhone X销量不佳后苹果屡次减产，股价一度暴跌7%以上，超600亿美元市值蒸发。iPhone X遇冷，苹果的创新能力被拉下神坛，黄牛们赚差价的空间日渐缩小。一台新机通常加价小几百元，与iPhone 6S之前的一机难求、动辄价格翻倍相差甚远。去年发布的iPhone 13，成了黄牛生意热潮最后的余温。彼时正值全球缺芯，苹果遭遇供应链危机。特殊时期的供需关系，让黄牛们找到了可乘之机。叶静跃事后总结道，“并不是iPhone 13多受欢迎，而是苹果在第一时间没有那么多备货，那个时间点就成了赚钱的好机会。”但iPhone 14没有这样的幸运。一方面，新机被吐槽与上一代产品几乎毫无区别，“灵动岛不灵动”，多项bug曝光，新功能屡屡翻车。另一方面，库克吸取教训，更注重iPhone 14的供应链管理，新机供货十分充足。有网友表示，Pro版本新机等半个月左右便可到货。这意味着，黄牛赚钱的土壤越来越贫瘠。盛极而衰的拐点？熬夜看完今年的新品发布会后，苹果发烧友胡艺文下定决心，今年不再找黄牛加钱抢购新机。她买过iPhone 14以外的所有iPhone机型，而且不止一次加价购买首发新机。在她看来，抢先一步晒出最新款iPhone并非炫富，而是体现一种对顶级新科技消费产品的追求，“这很极客”。但iPhone 14让她觉得，“抢这种过度相似的机型一点也不极客”。对被公认守成有余、进取不足的库克而言，这当然不是件好事。从1997年将“不同凡响”定为slogan开始，创新便被视为苹果的灵魂。在乔布斯时代，苹果曾推出不止一款开创性的产品，并凭此坐稳了科技公司的头把交椅。但自2011年库克担任CEO以来，苹果便鲜有令人眼前一亮的创新，甚至从引领者的角色逐渐沦为追随者。在销量上取得成功的iPhone 6，是苹果首次推出大屏手机，被认为步了三星等品牌的后尘。iPhone 14的灵动岛等功能，也被质疑抄袭安卓厂商。经济学家任泽平在社交平台上直言，“苹果是在吃乔布斯的老本”，甚至认为2022年是苹果盛极而衰的转折点。不可否认，从销量和公司市值来看，库克掌舵下的苹果取得了巨大的成功。部分原因在于，昔日价格高高在上的苹果手机，在定价上开始“低头”。胡艺文注意到，从iPhone 11开始，苹果手机变得“便宜起来”。一方面，iPhone 11的起售价从上一代产品iPhone XR的6499元降至5499元。另一方面，安卓阵营的旗舰机价格持续上涨，OPPO Find X2 Pro版本5999元起，小米10至尊版也要5299元起，与iPhone持平甚至更高。此后，苹果一直延续新机不涨价的策略。如今，乔布斯留下的老本仍然够苹果吃上一阵子。据Counterpoint Research数据，2022年Q2，苹果在高端智能手机市场仍占据着过半江山，以57%的市场份额创下iPhone自2007年以来的历史纪录，并将全球手机六成多的利润收入囊中。胡艺文这样的果粉也不会轻易抛弃苹果。虽然创新不足，但一年一度的硬件（主要是芯片）稳定更新、软件系统稳定，仍对他们有巨大的吸引力。换句话说，乔布斯时代创造的巨大势能，足以让在创新方面略显平庸的苹果帝国靠惯性继续向前滑行。但随着苹果光环褪色，知秋的寒蝉已经隐隐嗅到寒意，感知到创新乏力的后果。对于靠苹果吃饭的手机经销商吕樊而言，苹果仍然是他营收的大头，“黄牛的失败与否，不影响这一切，太阳照常升起”。靠稀缺性和时间差赚钱的黄牛们则无暇为此悲春伤秋。马不停蹄地奔赴下一个战场，赚取更多利润，才是他们的当务之急。叶静跃已全力转战华为Mate 50。他告诉雪豹财经社，华为新机溢价水平一直比较稳定，目前最低配都要加价1000元，最稀有的保时捷款已被炒到了2.5万元以上，较原价（12999元）翻了近一倍。对于仍站在金字塔尖的全球顶级软硬件一体的苹果公司而言，iPhone 14不可能成为绝唱。但黄牛们暴富梦的终章，或许将为苹果躺赢的终结，奏响一段前奏。（本文人物均为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937370470,"gmtCreate":1663375217190,"gmtModify":1676537260587,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[晕]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;[晕]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住] [晕]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937370470","repostId":"1181100698","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181100698","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663370391,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181100698?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 07:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | Bone-chilling cold! All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% for the week, with FedEx plunging 21%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181100698","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：联邦快递带来彻骨“寒气”，三大股指本周跌幅均超4%；热门中概股多数下跌 “蔚小理”均跌超6%，尚乘数科跌近20%；联邦快递预披露“丑陋”财报，创近40年最大单日跌幅。海外市场1、联邦快递带来彻骨","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>This brought a chilling effect, with all three major stock indices falling by more than 4% this week; Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with \"Wei Xiaoli\" all dropping by more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">Shangchengshu Science</a>It fell nearly 20%; FedEx released an \"ugly\" earnings report, marking its biggest single-day drop in nearly 40 years.</b><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>1. FedEx brought a chilling effect, causing all three major stock indexes to fall by more than 4% this week.</b></p><p>As US logistics giant FedEx sounded its earnings call, concerns about an economic recession dragged down the market collectively. U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 0.72% at 3,873.33 points. The Nasdaq index fell 0.90% to 11,448.40 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.45% to 30,822.42.</p><p>All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% this week. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.13%, the S&P 500 fell 4.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.48%.</p><p><b>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with \"Wei Xiaoli\" both falling by more than 6%, and Shangcheng Digital Technology falling by nearly 20%.</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell nearly 4%, while emerging electric vehicle manufacturers all fell by more than 6%. Among other stocks, Shangcheng Digital Technology fell nearly 20%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Bilibili fell by more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It fell by more than 5%.</p><p><b>3. Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.66%.</b></p><p>Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.66% and a cumulative weekly decline of 2.65%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.66%, and has fallen 1.56% this week. The French CAC40 index fell 1.31%, bringing its weekly decline to 2.17%. The European Stoxx 50 index fell 1.21%, bringing its weekly decline to 2.16%.</p><p><b>4. US WTI crude oil fell 1.9% this week.</b></p><p>On Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1 cent to settle at $85.11 a barrel. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil futures prices fell 1.9% this week.</p><p><b>5. Gold futures closed 0.4% higher on Friday, down 2.6% for the week.</b></p><p>Gold futures prices closed higher on Friday. Gold prices were supported after the release of the September consumer confidence index. However, gold prices still recorded their fourth weekly decline in five weeks this week. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.20, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,683.50 an ounce. Gold futures contracts fell 2.6% this week, marking the fourth weekly decline in the past five weeks.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Eight House Democrats asked Biden to continue releasing oil reserves</b></p><p>According to market sources, eight House Democrats wrote to U.S. President Biden on Friday, stating that the government should continue to release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve \"at least\" until the end of the year. In the letter, Representatives led by Jared Golden stated that persistently high oil prices, the unlikelihood of the Russia-Ukraine war ending anytime soon, and the potential for further disruption to domestic oil production during the hurricane season should be reasons to continue releasing oil reserves. Earlier reports indicated that the United States was considering replenishing its strategic petroleum reserves if crude oil fell below $80; The U.S. Department of Energy later stated that the plan to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve does not include a price trigger mechanism and may not be implemented until after fiscal year 2023.</p><p><b>The U.S. ambassador said he would discuss the oil price cap set against Russia at the UN General Assembly.</b></p><p>The U.S. ambassador said he would discuss the oil price cap imposed on Russia at the UN General Assembly. He also stated that there are no plans to meet with the Russian side during the UN meeting.</p><p><b>Czech Parliament approves energy price cap bill</b></p><p>Czech Parliament approves energy price cap bill. Previously, the Czech government had developed plans to limit energy prices nationwide and impose a windfall profits tax. The measure is expected to cost up to 130 billion Czech crowns (€5.3 billion), with the state using sources such as Dividend from state-owned enterprises and a planned windfall profits tax to finance it.</p><p><b>Japan resumed selling off US Treasury bonds in July, while China increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds for the first time in eight months.</b></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department announced that in July, Japan reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $2 billion, while China, which had been reducing its holdings for seven consecutive months, increased its holdings by $2.2 billion, temporarily breaking a twelve-year low. Overseas investors also sold off U.S. stocks for seven consecutive months. Official Japanese data shows that Japanese funds have sold off long-term US Treasury bonds for a record nine consecutive months in July.</p><p><b>Falling gasoline prices boosted U.S. consumer inflation expectations in Michigan to a one-year low in September.</b></p><p>Although the preliminary reading of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in September fell short of expectations, it rose slightly compared to August, benefiting from falling gasoline prices. Long-term inflation expectations, which are highly watched by the Federal Reserve, fell to a more than one-year low, while short-term inflation expectations also fell to a one-year low.</p><p><b>The Central Bank of Russia cut interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations; the governor stated that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end.</b></p><p>The Central Bank of Russia announced on Friday that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%, in line with market expectations, compared to 8% previously. Analysts say that as the economy emerges from a severe recession, the threat of inflation will become a focus of attention for the Central Bank of Russia.</p><p><b>The Vietnamese dong hit a record low, and the Thai baht hit a new low in 2006; a \"currency defense battle\" in Asia may be imminent.</b></p><p>A strong dollar is plunging Asian currencies deeper into a quagmire of devaluation. As a strong dollar puts pressure on Asian currencies, some Asian central banks are preparing to intervene in the foreign exchange market.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>FedEx pre-releases \"ugly\" earnings report, marking its biggest single-day drop in nearly 40 years.</b></p><p>After the market closed on Thursday, U.S. logistics giant FedEx pre-disclosed that its first fiscal quarter data, which ended at the end of August, fell short of expectations across the board, and withdrew its guidance for fiscal year 2023. This news was quickly generalized as a symbol of the US economic recession. As a result, FedEx closed down 21.40% on Friday, marking its biggest one-day drop in nearly 40 years. Beyer analyst Garrett Holland bluntly stated that FedEx's first-quarter report was \"ugly\" and reflected a significant deterioration in demand in the global logistics market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Analysts exclaimed that this was the worst data they had seen researching companies in nearly two decades.</p><p><b>Credit Suisse Group is considering renaming its investment banking division First Boston.</b></p><p>According to media reports on Friday, Credit Suisse executives are considering renaming their investment banking division First Boston. Credit Suisse began acquiring shares in First Boston in the late 1970s and renamed its investment banking division Credit Suisse First Boston in 1988, until it dropped the name in 2005 to unify the group's brand. In response to the rumor, Credit Suisse stated that it will update the progress of its strategic assessment when it releases its third-quarter financial report.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Launch an internal cybersecurity investigation</b></p><p>Uber announced Friday that it has contacted law enforcement and launched a cybersecurity investigation following a suspected hack of its internal network, and there is currently no evidence of a breach of sensitive user data. According to media reports, hackers took control of an employee's workplace instant messaging software and sent mass messages claiming that the company had experienced a data breach. At the same time, the hackers also appeared to have infiltrated the company's internal systems and left \"explicit photos\" to show off.</p><p><b>Transmission<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBL\">BHP Billiton</a>The acquisition offer for OZ Mining will be raised.</b></p><p>According to sources, the mining giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHP.AU\">BHP Billiton</a>The company will soon raise its acquisition offer for OZ Mining, a developer of copper, nickel, and other minerals, after its previous A$8.4 billion proposal was explicitly rejected. It is understood that the company will submit its latest quote as early as this month, but the extent of the increase is currently unclear. As of Friday's market close, OZ Mining's market capitalization had just exceeded BHP Billiton's previous offer.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | Bone-chilling cold! All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% for the week, with FedEx plunging 21%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | Bone-chilling cold! All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% for the week, with FedEx plunging 21%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-17 07:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>This brought a chilling effect, with all three major stock indices falling by more than 4% this week; Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with \"Wei Xiaoli\" all dropping by more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">Shangchengshu Science</a>It fell nearly 20%; FedEx released an \"ugly\" earnings report, marking its biggest single-day drop in nearly 40 years.</b><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>1. FedEx brought a chilling effect, causing all three major stock indexes to fall by more than 4% this week.</b></p><p>As US logistics giant FedEx sounded its earnings call, concerns about an economic recession dragged down the market collectively. U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 0.72% at 3,873.33 points. The Nasdaq index fell 0.90% to 11,448.40 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.45% to 30,822.42.</p><p>All three major stock indexes fell by more than 4% this week. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.13%, the S&P 500 fell 4.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.48%.</p><p><b>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with \"Wei Xiaoli\" both falling by more than 6%, and Shangcheng Digital Technology falling by nearly 20%.</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell nearly 4%, while emerging electric vehicle manufacturers all fell by more than 6%. Among other stocks, Shangcheng Digital Technology fell nearly 20%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Bilibili fell by more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Douyu</a>It fell by more than 5%.</p><p><b>3. Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.66%.</b></p><p>Major European stock indices collectively closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.66% and a cumulative weekly decline of 2.65%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.66%, and has fallen 1.56% this week. The French CAC40 index fell 1.31%, bringing its weekly decline to 2.17%. The European Stoxx 50 index fell 1.21%, bringing its weekly decline to 2.16%.</p><p><b>4. US WTI crude oil fell 1.9% this week.</b></p><p>On Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1 cent to settle at $85.11 a barrel. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil futures prices fell 1.9% this week.</p><p><b>5. Gold futures closed 0.4% higher on Friday, down 2.6% for the week.</b></p><p>Gold futures prices closed higher on Friday. Gold prices were supported after the release of the September consumer confidence index. However, gold prices still recorded their fourth weekly decline in five weeks this week. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.20, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,683.50 an ounce. Gold futures contracts fell 2.6% this week, marking the fourth weekly decline in the past five weeks.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Eight House Democrats asked Biden to continue releasing oil reserves</b></p><p>According to market sources, eight House Democrats wrote to U.S. President Biden on Friday, stating that the government should continue to release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve \"at least\" until the end of the year. In the letter, Representatives led by Jared Golden stated that persistently high oil prices, the unlikelihood of the Russia-Ukraine war ending anytime soon, and the potential for further disruption to domestic oil production during the hurricane season should be reasons to continue releasing oil reserves. Earlier reports indicated that the United States was considering replenishing its strategic petroleum reserves if crude oil fell below $80; The U.S. Department of Energy later stated that the plan to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve does not include a price trigger mechanism and may not be implemented until after fiscal year 2023.</p><p><b>The U.S. ambassador said he would discuss the oil price cap set against Russia at the UN General Assembly.</b></p><p>The U.S. ambassador said he would discuss the oil price cap imposed on Russia at the UN General Assembly. He also stated that there are no plans to meet with the Russian side during the UN meeting.</p><p><b>Czech Parliament approves energy price cap bill</b></p><p>Czech Parliament approves energy price cap bill. Previously, the Czech government had developed plans to limit energy prices nationwide and impose a windfall profits tax. The measure is expected to cost up to 130 billion Czech crowns (€5.3 billion), with the state using sources such as Dividend from state-owned enterprises and a planned windfall profits tax to finance it.</p><p><b>Japan resumed selling off US Treasury bonds in July, while China increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds for the first time in eight months.</b></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department announced that in July, Japan reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $2 billion, while China, which had been reducing its holdings for seven consecutive months, increased its holdings by $2.2 billion, temporarily breaking a twelve-year low. Overseas investors also sold off U.S. stocks for seven consecutive months. Official Japanese data shows that Japanese funds have sold off long-term US Treasury bonds for a record nine consecutive months in July.</p><p><b>Falling gasoline prices boosted U.S. consumer inflation expectations in Michigan to a one-year low in September.</b></p><p>Although the preliminary reading of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in September fell short of expectations, it rose slightly compared to August, benefiting from falling gasoline prices. Long-term inflation expectations, which are highly watched by the Federal Reserve, fell to a more than one-year low, while short-term inflation expectations also fell to a one-year low.</p><p><b>The Central Bank of Russia cut interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with expectations; the governor stated that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end.</b></p><p>The Central Bank of Russia announced on Friday that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%, in line with market expectations, compared to 8% previously. Analysts say that as the economy emerges from a severe recession, the threat of inflation will become a focus of attention for the Central Bank of Russia.</p><p><b>The Vietnamese dong hit a record low, and the Thai baht hit a new low in 2006; a \"currency defense battle\" in Asia may be imminent.</b></p><p>A strong dollar is plunging Asian currencies deeper into a quagmire of devaluation. As a strong dollar puts pressure on Asian currencies, some Asian central banks are preparing to intervene in the foreign exchange market.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>FedEx pre-releases \"ugly\" earnings report, marking its biggest single-day drop in nearly 40 years.</b></p><p>After the market closed on Thursday, U.S. logistics giant FedEx pre-disclosed that its first fiscal quarter data, which ended at the end of August, fell short of expectations across the board, and withdrew its guidance for fiscal year 2023. This news was quickly generalized as a symbol of the US economic recession. As a result, FedEx closed down 21.40% on Friday, marking its biggest one-day drop in nearly 40 years. Beyer analyst Garrett Holland bluntly stated that FedEx's first-quarter report was \"ugly\" and reflected a significant deterioration in demand in the global logistics market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Analysts exclaimed that this was the worst data they had seen researching companies in nearly two decades.</p><p><b>Credit Suisse Group is considering renaming its investment banking division First Boston.</b></p><p>According to media reports on Friday, Credit Suisse executives are considering renaming their investment banking division First Boston. Credit Suisse began acquiring shares in First Boston in the late 1970s and renamed its investment banking division Credit Suisse First Boston in 1988, until it dropped the name in 2005 to unify the group's brand. In response to the rumor, Credit Suisse stated that it will update the progress of its strategic assessment when it releases its third-quarter financial report.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Launch an internal cybersecurity investigation</b></p><p>Uber announced Friday that it has contacted law enforcement and launched a cybersecurity investigation following a suspected hack of its internal network, and there is currently no evidence of a breach of sensitive user data. According to media reports, hackers took control of an employee's workplace instant messaging software and sent mass messages claiming that the company had experienced a data breach. At the same time, the hackers also appeared to have infiltrated the company's internal systems and left \"explicit photos\" to show off.</p><p><b>Transmission<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBL\">BHP Billiton</a>The acquisition offer for OZ Mining will be raised.</b></p><p>According to sources, the mining giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHP.AU\">BHP Billiton</a>The company will soon raise its acquisition offer for OZ Mining, a developer of copper, nickel, and other minerals, after its previous A$8.4 billion proposal was explicitly rejected. It is understood that the company will submit its latest quote as early as this month, but the extent of the increase is currently unclear. As of Friday's market close, OZ Mining's market capitalization had just exceeded BHP Billiton's previous offer.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"JD":"京东","FDX":"联邦快递","BK4131":"航空货运与物流",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181100698","content_text":"摘要：联邦快递带来彻骨“寒气”，三大股指本周跌幅均超4%；热门中概股多数下跌 “蔚小理”均跌超6%，尚乘数科跌近20%；联邦快递预披露“丑陋”财报，创近40年最大单日跌幅。海外市场1、联邦快递带来彻骨“寒气”，三大股指本周跌幅均超4%随着美国物流巨头联邦快递鸣响财报警钟，对于经济衰退的担忧拖累市场集体走弱。美股周五收跌，标普500指数跌0.72%，报3873.33点；纳斯达克指数跌0.90%，报11448.40点；道琼斯指数跌0.45%，报30822.42点。三大股指本周均下跌超过4%。本周道指下跌4.13%，标普500指数下跌4.77%，纳指下跌5.48%。2、热门中概股多数下跌 “蔚小理”均跌超6%，尚乘数科跌近20%热门中概股下跌，拼多多跌超4%，京东跌近4%，造车新势力均跌超6%。其他个股中，尚乘数科跌近20%，金山云跌超7%，B站、爱奇艺、满帮跌超6%，腾讯音乐、新东方、好未来、斗鱼跌超5%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌 德国DAX30指数跌1.66%欧洲主要股指集体收跌，德国DAX30指数跌1.66%，本周累跌2.65%；英国富时100指数跌0.66%，本周累跌1.56%；法国CAC40指数跌1.31%，本周累跌2.17%；欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.21%，本周累跌2.16%。4、美国WTI原油本周下跌1.9%周五，纽约商品交易所10月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨1美分，收于每桶85.11美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周WTI原油期货价格下跌1.9%。5、周五黄金期货收高0.4%，本周下跌2.6%黄金期货价格周五收高。在9月消费者信心指数公布后，金价得到支撑。但本周黄金价格仍录得五周内的第四周下跌。纽约商品期货交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格上涨6.20美元，涨幅为0.4%，收于每盎司1683.50美元。本周黄金期货合约下跌2.6%，为过去五周内的第四周下跌。国际宏观八位众议院民主党人要求拜登继续释放石油储备据市场消息，八位众议院民主党人周五致函美国总统拜登，表示政府应继续释放战略石油储备“至少”到年底。Jared Golden牵头的众议员在信中表示，持续的高油价加上俄乌战争不太可能在近期结束、飓风季可能导致国内石油生产进一步受到干扰，应该是继续释放石油储备的理由。此前有消息称，美国考虑在原油跌破80美元时补充战略石油储备；美国能源部后来表示，补充战略石油储备的计划不包括价格触发机制，并且2023财年之后才可能实施。美国大使称将在联合国大会上讨论对俄罗斯设置的油价上限美国大使称将在联合国大会上讨论对俄罗斯设置的油价上限。并表示，没有计划在联合国会议期间与俄罗斯方面进行会晤。捷克议会批准能源价格上限法案捷克议会批准能源价格上限法案。此前，捷克政府已经制定了在全国范围内限制能源价格和征收暴利税的计划。预计这项措施最多将耗资1300亿捷克克朗(合53亿欧元)，国家将使用国有企业的股息、计划中的暴利税等来源来提供资金。7月日本重启抛售美债，中国八个月内首度增持美债美国财政部公布，7月日本减持20亿美元美债，连续减持七个月的中国增持22亿美元美债，持仓暂别十二年低谷，海外投资者连续七个月抛售美股。日本官方数据显示，日本基金7月已连续九个月创纪录长期抛美债。汽油价格下跌助推，美国9月密歇根消费者通胀预期跌至一年新低美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心初值虽不及预期，但较8月有所攀升，这受益于汽油价格下跌。美联储高度关注的长期通胀预期跌至一年多新低，短期通胀预期也降至一年新低。俄罗斯央行降息50基点，符合预期，行长称降息周期可能接近尾声俄罗斯央行周五宣布将基准利率下调50个基点至7.5%，符合市场预期，前值为8%。分析人士称，随着经济摆脱严重衰退，通胀威胁将成为俄央行关注的焦点。越南盾创纪录新低，泰币创2006年新低，亚洲“本币保卫战”或一触即发强势美元正在使亚洲国家货币在贬值的泥潭里越陷越深。由于美元强势导致亚洲国家货币承压，部分亚洲国家央行正在准备出手干预汇市。公司消息联邦快递预披露“丑陋”财报 创近40年最大单日跌幅周四盘后，美国物流巨头联邦快递预披露截至8月底的第一财季数据全面不及预期，同时撤回2023财年的指引。这一消息也迅速被泛化为美国经济衰退的象征。受此影响，联邦快递周五收跌21.40%，创近40年来的最大单日跌幅。贝雅分析师Garrett Holland直言联邦快递的一季报“丑陋”，并反映出全球物流市场的需求显著恶化。德意志银行的分析师们则高呼，这是他们研究公司近二十年来看到的最糟糕数据。瑞信集团考虑将投行部门更名为第一波士顿据媒体周五报道，瑞信集团的高管近期正在考虑将投行部门改名为第一波士顿。瑞信在上世纪70年代末开始收购第一波士顿的股票，并在1988年将投行部门改名为瑞信第一波士顿，直到2005年为了统一集团品牌去掉了这个名字。对于该传言，瑞信回应称将在发布三季度财报时更新战略评估的进展。优步启动内部网络安全调查优步公司周五宣布，在公司内网疑似遭到黑客攻击后，已经联系执法部门并启动网络安全调查，目前并没有证据显示用户敏感数据出现泄露。据媒体报道，黑客控制一名员工的职场即时通讯软件，并群发消息称公司出现了数据泄露，同时黑客似乎也入侵了公司的内部系统，并留下“露骨照片”显摆。传必和必拓将提高对OZ矿业的收购报价据知情人士透露，矿业巨头必和必拓将在近期提高对铜、镍等矿产开发商OZ矿业的收购报价，此前84亿澳元的提案遭到明确否决。据悉，公司最快将在本月内提出最新的报价，但目前上浮的程度尚不清楚。截至本周五收盘，OZ矿业的市值刚刚超过必和必拓上一轮提出的收购价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"PDD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"JD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"FDX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934399168,"gmtCreate":1663196082454,"gmtModify":1676537222407,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934399168","repostId":"1170740733","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170740733","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663139108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170740733?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-14 15:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Large Options Orders | US Stock Options Trading Volume Surges! Bullish sentiment on Apple and Tesla has cooled slightly.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170740733","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一、市场概览 （13/09）美东时间9月13日（周二），由于周二关键的美国8月CPI数据显示通胀趋缓的速度低于投资者期许，令市场对美联储放缓加息步伐的预期落空。美股市场迎来凶残下跌的一夜：三大指数集体","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>I. Market Overview (13/09)</b></p><p>On Tuesday, September 13 (Eastern Time), market expectations for the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate hike were dashed as key U.S. August CPI data on Tuesday showed that inflation slowed more slowly than investors expected. The US stock market suffered a brutal overnight decline: after the three major indices collectively gapped open in open low, a long bearish candlestick gave up all the gains of the past four trading days. At the close of trading, the S&P 500 fell 4.32% to 3932.69 points; The Nasdaq index fell 5.16% to 11,633.57 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.94% to 31,104.97.</p><p>The total trading volume in the options market reached 39,422,317 contracts, a significant increase of over 11% compared to the previous trading day and far exceeding the 90-day average trading volume. Of these, call options accounted for 48%.</p><p>The S&P 500 ETF-SPY options traded 8.704 million contracts. Of these, call options accounted for 36%.</p><p><b>II. Top 10 Options Trading Volume</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7b3c650d9edf48e45ec94ceb2d3598\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data source: Tiger International)</p><p>Stock index options remain the top choice for investors, with 8.704 million SPY options traded on Tuesday, with call options accounting for 36% of overall options trading, compared to 42.8% of overall options trading the previous trading day.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It closed down 4% at $292.13 on Tuesday. There were 1.92 million options contracts, a significant increase compared to the previous trading day, with call options accounting for 52.8% of all options trading. Among them, the $300 strike price call option expiring on September 16, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with over 110,000 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ffa28038007708a602acad54641e65b\" tg-width=\"1581\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It closed down 5.87% at $153.84 on Tuesday. There were 1.855 million option contracts, with call options accounting for 52.4% of all options trading. Among them, the $160 strike price call option expiring on September 16, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with over 150,000 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02dbeb971aa9f5e0ab7d1b80922d13cd\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>III. Abnormal Movement</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb9423fb6b74dc015d34d63b6bf6a52\" tg-width=\"1283\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>It closed down 5.9% at $104.32 on Tuesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Facing $25.4 billion in claims in the UK and the Netherlands for advertising technology. The call option with an exercise price of $108 expiring on September 16, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with 14,428 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da014327e641efb525812f915bf12fa\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone script</a>It closed down 1.35% at $76.04 on Tuesday. The first fiscal quarter results exceeded market expectations, thanks to the strong performance of the cloud business, which was praised by many Wall Street analysts. The call option with an exercise price of $80 expiring on September 16, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with 22,529 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81cd5046127b21581fd1963d5caaa4d0\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">Peloton</a>It closed down 10.32% at $9.91 on Tuesday. In terms of news, the company's two co-founders have successively withdrawn and may sell their company shares. The call option with an exercise price of $10.50 expiring on September 16, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with 11,910 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c86a29f62adb812c54bc5c9c0737f9\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Large Options Orders | US Stock Options Trading Volume Surges! Bullish sentiment on Apple and Tesla has cooled slightly.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLarge Options Orders | US Stock Options Trading Volume Surges! Bullish sentiment on Apple and Tesla has cooled slightly.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-14 15:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>I. Market Overview (13/09)</b></p><p>On Tuesday, September 13 (Eastern Time), market expectations for the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate hike were dashed as key U.S. August CPI data on Tuesday showed that inflation slowed more slowly than investors expected. The US stock market suffered a brutal overnight decline: after the three major indices collectively gapped open in open low, a long bearish candlestick gave up all the gains of the past four trading days. At the close of trading, the S&P 500 fell 4.32% to 3932.69 points; The Nasdaq index fell 5.16% to 11,633.57 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.94% to 31,104.97.</p><p>The total trading volume in the options market reached 39,422,317 contracts, a significant increase of over 11% compared to the previous trading day and far exceeding the 90-day average trading volume. Of these, call options accounted for 48%.</p><p>The S&P 500 ETF-SPY options traded 8.704 million contracts. Of these, call options accounted for 36%.</p><p><b>II. Top 10 Options Trading Volume</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7b3c650d9edf48e45ec94ceb2d3598\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data source: Tiger International)</p><p>Stock index options remain the top choice for investors, with 8.704 million SPY options traded on Tuesday, with call options accounting for 36% of overall options trading, compared to 42.8% of overall options trading the previous trading day.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It closed down 4% at $292.13 on Tuesday. There were 1.92 million options contracts, a significant increase compared to the previous trading day, with call options accounting for 52.8% of all options trading. Among them, the $300 strike price call option expiring on September 16, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with over 110,000 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ffa28038007708a602acad54641e65b\" tg-width=\"1581\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It closed down 5.87% at $153.84 on Tuesday. There were 1.855 million option contracts, with call options accounting for 52.4% of all options trading. Among them, the $160 strike price call option expiring on September 16, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with over 150,000 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02dbeb971aa9f5e0ab7d1b80922d13cd\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>III. Abnormal Movement</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb9423fb6b74dc015d34d63b6bf6a52\" tg-width=\"1283\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>It closed down 5.9% at $104.32 on Tuesday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Facing $25.4 billion in claims in the UK and the Netherlands for advertising technology. The call option with an exercise price of $108 expiring on September 16, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with 14,428 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da014327e641efb525812f915bf12fa\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone script</a>It closed down 1.35% at $76.04 on Tuesday. The first fiscal quarter results exceeded market expectations, thanks to the strong performance of the cloud business, which was praised by many Wall Street analysts. The call option with an exercise price of $80 expiring on September 16, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with 22,529 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81cd5046127b21581fd1963d5caaa4d0\" tg-width=\"1582\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">Peloton</a>It closed down 10.32% at $9.91 on Tuesday. In terms of news, the company's two co-founders have successively withdrawn and may sell their company shares. The call option with an exercise price of $10.50 expiring on September 16, 2022, saw particularly high trading volume, with 11,910 contracts traded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c86a29f62adb812c54bc5c9c0737f9\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","ORCL":"甲骨文","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170740733","content_text":"一、市场概览 （13/09）美东时间9月13日（周二），由于周二关键的美国8月CPI数据显示通胀趋缓的速度低于投资者期许，令市场对美联储放缓加息步伐的预期落空。美股市场迎来凶残下跌的一夜：三大指数集体跳空低开后，一根长阴线将过去四个交易日的涨幅悉数回吐。截至收盘，标普500指数跌4.32%，报3932.69点；纳斯达克指数跌5.16%，报11633.57点；道琼斯指数跌3.94%，报31104.97点。期权市场总成交量达39,422,317张合约，较前一交易日大幅增加逾11%，远高于90日平均交易量。其中，看涨期权占比48%。标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交870.4万张合约。其中，看涨期权占36%。二、期权成交总量TOP10（数据来源：老虎国际）股指期权仍然是投资者的首选，周二有870.4万份SPY期权交易，看涨期权占整体期权交易的36%，前一交易日看涨期权占整体期权交易的42.8%。特斯拉周二收跌4%，报292.13美元。期权合约有192万份，环比前一交易日大幅上涨，看涨期权占全部期权交易的52.8%。其中2022年9月16日到期的300美元行使价看涨期权的成交量特别高，交易量为逾11万张。苹果周二收跌5.87%，报153.84美元。期权合约有185.5万份，看涨期权占全部期权交易的52.4%。其中2022年9月16日到期的160美元行使价看涨期权的成交量特别高，交易量为逾15万张。三、异动观察谷歌A周二收跌5.9%，报104.32美元。谷歌因广告技术在英国及荷兰面临254亿美元索赔。2022年9月16日到期行权价为108美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，交易量为14428张。甲骨文周二收跌1.35%，报76.04美元。第一财季业绩超过市场预期，得益于云业务的强劲表现，这一业绩得到了多位华尔街分析师的称赞。2022年9月16日到期行权价为80美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，交易量为22529张。Peloton周二收跌10.32%，报9.91美元。消息面，公司两联合创始人相继退出，可能抛售公司股票。2022年9月16日到期行权价为10.5美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，交易量为11910张。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"ORCL":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"PTON":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935508083,"gmtCreate":1663112474242,"gmtModify":1676537204260,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935508083","repostId":"1135010419","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135010419","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663064183,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135010419?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-13 18:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Huge sums of money have been allocated in advance! Tonight's US CPI data will determine the fate of the market.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135010419","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在CPI数据公布之前，华尔街的看法存在分歧。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Ahead of the release of the US August CPI data, a huge $80 million bet on the rise of US stocks appeared in the options market. JPMorgan Chase believes that if the CPI reads a number starting with 7, US stocks will rebound strongly tonight.</b>U.S. stocks continued their strong performance overnight, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest four-day gain since early July on Monday, as markets bet on tonight's U.S. CPI data peaking.</p><p><b>Unusually, the VIX volatility index rose alongside the US stock index for the second consecutive day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16b5f068de1e0b4eb66abf4ed5da19e2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIX (left axis)</p><p>Some analysts believe that,<b>This is the footprint of large-scale long leveraged bets made by options traders in pursuit of rising market prices.</b></p><p>The United States will release its August CPI data at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. Market general expectations<b>The US CPI is expected to rise 8.1% year-on-year in August, weaker than the 8.5% year-on-year increase in July.</b>It decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, compared to 0% in the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of slowdown; The core CPI in August is expected to rise 6.1% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 5.9%, and 0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous value.</p><p>Prior to the data release, there were numerous bullish bets in the market. Hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs made their first significant purchases of stocks in a month in the week ending last Thursday, with data from major brokerage firms compiled by Goldman Sachs showing that nominal long buying reached a one-year high.</p><p>Despite factors such as persistently high inflation, geopolitical turmoil, and the Federal Reserve's hardline policy stance, market risk appetite remains subdued.<b>However, the impulse to chase the rise in US stocks is on the rise, and the fear of missing out (FOMO) has suddenly become prevalent in US stocks again.</b></p><p>A massive 80 million yuan order appeared in the options market.</p><p>Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at options trading giant Susquehanna International Group, wrote in a report:</p><p>“<b>There are several examples of investors turning to bullish exposure to prepare for further upward movement, including going directly into bullish territory and selling put options.</b>\"These buying activities are certainly likely driven by investors who previously oversold their holdings and now anticipate an impending rally,\" Jacobson pointed out.<b>A trader bought 30,000 call options at 53 cents each, betting that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US) would rise to $199 by the end of the month.</b>If the ETF rises 6.6% before expiration, this bet will break even.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/300581823c3e6c3c23b0a05f7550910c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Another transaction involves paying approximately $2.65 each to purchase approximately 15,000 call options linked to the SPDR S&P Biotechnology ETF (XBI.US), with an exercise price of $100 and expiring in November. Jacobson pointed out that the deal would yield returns if the fund gained more than 16% over the next two months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10df6f0cd1af8ee2f28cf1a2be80ee52\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Danny Kirsch, head of options trading at investment bank Piper Sandler, noted that a considerable amount of derivatives trading occurred during the initial rebound in U.S. stocks on Monday.</p><p><b>A trader bought approximately 9,000 S&P 500 call options expiring in December at a price of $90 each (costing about $80 million), with an exercise point of 4,300 points.</b>He predicted that the trade would be profitable if the index closed above 4390 points by expiration. The benchmark U.S. stock index closed at 4110.41 points on Monday.</p><p>Kirsch said:</p><p>“<b>The scale of this deal is very large.</b>Perhaps some people feel they haven't bought enough, or are simply bullish, hoping to capitalize on the upward trend before the end of the year. A series of buy trades caused the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to see its biggest drop in the ratio of put to call options since July, signifying a clear shift in the market to a bullish stance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/866459f483a0ad7baaae75f59dbd96d0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the CPI shows a number starting with 7, get ready for a giant wave.</p><p>cc</p><p><b>One viewpoint is that</b>Tonight's inflation data has been fully digested by the market and will not affect the performance of US stocks or the Federal Reserve's decisions. The Fed will not ease policy until the CPI falls to the 2% target level.</p><p><b>Another point of view</b>—Echoing recent comments from the Federal Reserve, it is believed that the CPI is crucial to the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision, even though the probability of rate hike reaching 75 basis points has exceeded 90% in the past two weeks.</p><p>The latter reasons include that the latest survey by the New York Federal Reserve on September 12 showed that consumers' expectations for inflation growth over the next one and three years dropped sharply in August, with respondents' expectations for U.S. inflation over the next three years falling to 2.8%, a new low since November 2020. Respondents' inflation expectations for the next year also fell to 5.7%, the lowest level since October last year; Five-year inflation expectations fell from 2.3% to 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9794c63485be322b15a5700169d3d653\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the three-year break-even inflation rate has fallen to its lowest point in nearly two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c21cdcf9185526a907163763720a33c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Furthermore, the swap market pricing indicates that the average CPI increase in the short term (2 years) will be less than 3% (although core CPI excluding energy is still expected to increase by close to 4%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee25d3ccd1e951d76d80f9275a0cb09\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs trader John Flood said:</p><p>\"Everyone is watching the CPI. An interesting development is that when Nick Timiraos (known as the 'new Fed news agency') published an article last week, the Fed actually announced its decision to raise the rate hike by 75 basis points ahead of its September 21 meeting.\"<b>The market clearly hopes or expects that the CPI data will cool down given the recent sharp drop in gasoline prices.</b>Wall Street is ready for core CPI to remain sticky (or even slightly higher).<b>The overall CPI is likely to show signs of cooling, but the market will not be meaningfully affected after the recent sharp rebound (unless the CPI drops dramatically below 7%, then be prepared to put on your \"rebound hat\").</b>If the data is unexpectedly hotter, such as above 8.5%, the market could be hit by more than 100 points. JPMorgan Chase predicts that,<b>\"The second consecutive month-on-month decline in CPI will provide support for the stock market.\"</b>Andrew Tyler, a strategist at the bank, said:</p><p>If the market continues to rise, will short covering allow us to return to 4300 points during earnings season? If that's the case, it will start with Tuesday's CPI.<b>If the overall CPI year-on-year is around 7.0%, then we believe the stock market will have a very strong day.</b><b>However, some analysts believe that while tonight's lower-than-expected inflation might unleash the \"animal spirit\" of the US stock market, from a macro perspective, it will not truly change the overall situation.</b>Even if inflation eventually returns to the normal level of 2%, it will still take a long time.</p><p>The chart below from Bank of America shows how long it will take for the U.S. CPI to return to normal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36dfb2b0eec2b8a3959f1ba05efbf460\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tonight's CPI data will determine whether US stocks continue to rise.</p><p>Currently, the S&P 500 is not far from its 200-day moving average around 4270 points. Some analysts said,<b>If the index fails to break through and remain above key technical support levels after the inflation report is released, it may indicate that the market will decline again.</b></p><p>This is what happened last month.</p><p>After U.S. CPI data on August 10 showed that U.S. inflation slowed more than expected, the S&P 500 index surged to a level just one step away from its 200-day moving average. However, the index subsequently lost momentum and failed to return to this level, when the rapid rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields volatilized growth stocks and overturned the $7 trillion rebound in the stock market at the beginning of the summer.</p><p>Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer of Advisory Services firm Truist Advisory Services, said,<b>The difference this time is that investors' positions are already low, which is a reverse sign. However, this also suggests that at least some investors are prepared for bad news and do not need to sell off heavily, as they have already hedged to some extent.</b></p><p>Another rally could help push the index above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. Lerner stated that if the S&P 500 fails to break through this level, it indicates that a rebound against the trend has begun, and the market is poised to fall again as the index faces resistance at 4,200 to 4,300 points.</p><p>Nevertheless, major U.S. stock indexes have shown some resilience recently, with the S&P 500 breaking through its 50-day and 100-day moving averages. At the same time,<b>If the index closes above the 200-day moving average, it will be seen as a potential bullish change in the market's long-term trend.</b></p><p>In addition, analysts say that with the recent rise in the stock market, U.S. financial conditions have eased significantly from the recent tightening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99f2f3741b4834bd7b453edb926eb221\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How long will Powell allow this \"easing\" to last before he \"unleashes his hawkish hound\" again and slaps the bulls in the face?</b></p><p>It is worth noting that so far this year, the S&P 500 has fallen by an average of 0.5% on the day the CPI is released, with 5 declines and 3 increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/446b095149f2271543f1b7f152e99735\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Huge sums of money have been allocated in advance! Tonight's US CPI data will determine the fate of the market.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHuge sums of money have been allocated in advance! Tonight's US CPI data will determine the fate of the market.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-13 18:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Ahead of the release of the US August CPI data, a huge $80 million bet on the rise of US stocks appeared in the options market. JPMorgan Chase believes that if the CPI reads a number starting with 7, US stocks will rebound strongly tonight.</b>U.S. stocks continued their strong performance overnight, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest four-day gain since early July on Monday, as markets bet on tonight's U.S. CPI data peaking.</p><p><b>Unusually, the VIX volatility index rose alongside the US stock index for the second consecutive day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16b5f068de1e0b4eb66abf4ed5da19e2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIX (left axis)</p><p>Some analysts believe that,<b>This is the footprint of large-scale long leveraged bets made by options traders in pursuit of rising market prices.</b></p><p>The United States will release its August CPI data at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. Market general expectations<b>The US CPI is expected to rise 8.1% year-on-year in August, weaker than the 8.5% year-on-year increase in July.</b>It decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, compared to 0% in the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of slowdown; The core CPI in August is expected to rise 6.1% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 5.9%, and 0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous value.</p><p>Prior to the data release, there were numerous bullish bets in the market. Hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs made their first significant purchases of stocks in a month in the week ending last Thursday, with data from major brokerage firms compiled by Goldman Sachs showing that nominal long buying reached a one-year high.</p><p>Despite factors such as persistently high inflation, geopolitical turmoil, and the Federal Reserve's hardline policy stance, market risk appetite remains subdued.<b>However, the impulse to chase the rise in US stocks is on the rise, and the fear of missing out (FOMO) has suddenly become prevalent in US stocks again.</b></p><p>A massive 80 million yuan order appeared in the options market.</p><p>Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at options trading giant Susquehanna International Group, wrote in a report:</p><p>“<b>There are several examples of investors turning to bullish exposure to prepare for further upward movement, including going directly into bullish territory and selling put options.</b>\"These buying activities are certainly likely driven by investors who previously oversold their holdings and now anticipate an impending rally,\" Jacobson pointed out.<b>A trader bought 30,000 call options at 53 cents each, betting that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US) would rise to $199 by the end of the month.</b>If the ETF rises 6.6% before expiration, this bet will break even.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/300581823c3e6c3c23b0a05f7550910c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Another transaction involves paying approximately $2.65 each to purchase approximately 15,000 call options linked to the SPDR S&P Biotechnology ETF (XBI.US), with an exercise price of $100 and expiring in November. Jacobson pointed out that the deal would yield returns if the fund gained more than 16% over the next two months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10df6f0cd1af8ee2f28cf1a2be80ee52\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Danny Kirsch, head of options trading at investment bank Piper Sandler, noted that a considerable amount of derivatives trading occurred during the initial rebound in U.S. stocks on Monday.</p><p><b>A trader bought approximately 9,000 S&P 500 call options expiring in December at a price of $90 each (costing about $80 million), with an exercise point of 4,300 points.</b>He predicted that the trade would be profitable if the index closed above 4390 points by expiration. The benchmark U.S. stock index closed at 4110.41 points on Monday.</p><p>Kirsch said:</p><p>“<b>The scale of this deal is very large.</b>Perhaps some people feel they haven't bought enough, or are simply bullish, hoping to capitalize on the upward trend before the end of the year. A series of buy trades caused the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to see its biggest drop in the ratio of put to call options since July, signifying a clear shift in the market to a bullish stance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/866459f483a0ad7baaae75f59dbd96d0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the CPI shows a number starting with 7, get ready for a giant wave.</p><p>cc</p><p><b>One viewpoint is that</b>Tonight's inflation data has been fully digested by the market and will not affect the performance of US stocks or the Federal Reserve's decisions. The Fed will not ease policy until the CPI falls to the 2% target level.</p><p><b>Another point of view</b>—Echoing recent comments from the Federal Reserve, it is believed that the CPI is crucial to the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision, even though the probability of rate hike reaching 75 basis points has exceeded 90% in the past two weeks.</p><p>The latter reasons include that the latest survey by the New York Federal Reserve on September 12 showed that consumers' expectations for inflation growth over the next one and three years dropped sharply in August, with respondents' expectations for U.S. inflation over the next three years falling to 2.8%, a new low since November 2020. Respondents' inflation expectations for the next year also fell to 5.7%, the lowest level since October last year; Five-year inflation expectations fell from 2.3% to 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9794c63485be322b15a5700169d3d653\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the three-year break-even inflation rate has fallen to its lowest point in nearly two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c21cdcf9185526a907163763720a33c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Furthermore, the swap market pricing indicates that the average CPI increase in the short term (2 years) will be less than 3% (although core CPI excluding energy is still expected to increase by close to 4%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee25d3ccd1e951d76d80f9275a0cb09\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs trader John Flood said:</p><p>\"Everyone is watching the CPI. An interesting development is that when Nick Timiraos (known as the 'new Fed news agency') published an article last week, the Fed actually announced its decision to raise the rate hike by 75 basis points ahead of its September 21 meeting.\"<b>The market clearly hopes or expects that the CPI data will cool down given the recent sharp drop in gasoline prices.</b>Wall Street is ready for core CPI to remain sticky (or even slightly higher).<b>The overall CPI is likely to show signs of cooling, but the market will not be meaningfully affected after the recent sharp rebound (unless the CPI drops dramatically below 7%, then be prepared to put on your \"rebound hat\").</b>If the data is unexpectedly hotter, such as above 8.5%, the market could be hit by more than 100 points. JPMorgan Chase predicts that,<b>\"The second consecutive month-on-month decline in CPI will provide support for the stock market.\"</b>Andrew Tyler, a strategist at the bank, said:</p><p>If the market continues to rise, will short covering allow us to return to 4300 points during earnings season? If that's the case, it will start with Tuesday's CPI.<b>If the overall CPI year-on-year is around 7.0%, then we believe the stock market will have a very strong day.</b><b>However, some analysts believe that while tonight's lower-than-expected inflation might unleash the \"animal spirit\" of the US stock market, from a macro perspective, it will not truly change the overall situation.</b>Even if inflation eventually returns to the normal level of 2%, it will still take a long time.</p><p>The chart below from Bank of America shows how long it will take for the U.S. CPI to return to normal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36dfb2b0eec2b8a3959f1ba05efbf460\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tonight's CPI data will determine whether US stocks continue to rise.</p><p>Currently, the S&P 500 is not far from its 200-day moving average around 4270 points. Some analysts said,<b>If the index fails to break through and remain above key technical support levels after the inflation report is released, it may indicate that the market will decline again.</b></p><p>This is what happened last month.</p><p>After U.S. CPI data on August 10 showed that U.S. inflation slowed more than expected, the S&P 500 index surged to a level just one step away from its 200-day moving average. However, the index subsequently lost momentum and failed to return to this level, when the rapid rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields volatilized growth stocks and overturned the $7 trillion rebound in the stock market at the beginning of the summer.</p><p>Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer of Advisory Services firm Truist Advisory Services, said,<b>The difference this time is that investors' positions are already low, which is a reverse sign. However, this also suggests that at least some investors are prepared for bad news and do not need to sell off heavily, as they have already hedged to some extent.</b></p><p>Another rally could help push the index above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. Lerner stated that if the S&P 500 fails to break through this level, it indicates that a rebound against the trend has begun, and the market is poised to fall again as the index faces resistance at 4,200 to 4,300 points.</p><p>Nevertheless, major U.S. stock indexes have shown some resilience recently, with the S&P 500 breaking through its 50-day and 100-day moving averages. At the same time,<b>If the index closes above the 200-day moving average, it will be seen as a potential bullish change in the market's long-term trend.</b></p><p>In addition, analysts say that with the recent rise in the stock market, U.S. financial conditions have eased significantly from the recent tightening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99f2f3741b4834bd7b453edb926eb221\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How long will Powell allow this \"easing\" to last before he \"unleashes his hawkish hound\" again and slaps the bulls in the face?</b></p><p>It is worth noting that so far this year, the S&P 500 has fallen by an average of 0.5% on the day the CPI is released, with 5 declines and 3 increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/446b095149f2271543f1b7f152e99735\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670152\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a33c23f8e5a366189f532d19af270ed","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670152","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1135010419","content_text":"美国8月CPI数据公布前，期权市场惊现8000万巨单押注美股上行。摩根大通认为，如果CPI出现以7开头的数字，今晚美股将强劲反弹。随着市场押注今晚美国CPI数据见顶，隔夜美股继续表现强劲，标普500指数周一创7月初以来最大四日连涨。不同寻常的是，VIX波动率指数连续第二天与美股指一同上涨。VIX（左轴）有分析人士认为，这是期权交易者追逐市场走高而进行的大规模多头杠杆押注的足迹。北京时间今晚20:30，美国将公布8月CPI数据。市场普遍预期美国8月CPI将同比上涨8.1%，弱于7月的同比增幅8.5%，环比下降0.1%，前值为0%，为连续两个月放缓；8月核心CPI或将同比上涨6.1%，高于前值的5.9%，环比上涨0.3%，持平前值。在数据公布之前，市场出现了大量的多头押注。高盛追踪的对冲基金在截至上周四的一周内，出现了一个月来首次大量买入股票，高盛统计的主要经纪公司数据显示，名义多头买盘达到一年来的高点。尽管由于通胀保持高位、地缘政治动荡以及美联储政策立场强硬等因素，市场风险偏好仍然低迷，但追逐美股上涨的冲动情绪正在抬头，担心错失良机的情绪(FOMO)突然又开始在美股盛行。期权市场惊现8000万巨单期权交易巨头海纳国际集团(Susquehanna International Group)的策略师Christopher Jacobson在一份报告中写道：“有几个例子表明，投资者转向看涨敞口，为进一步上行做好准备，包括直接迈入看涨行列和卖出看跌期权。”“这些买盘肯定可能是由那些此前过度减持，而现在预期上涨行情将至的投资者所推动。”Jacobson指出，一位交易员以每份53美分的价格买入3万个看涨期权，押注iShares 罗素2000ETF(IWM.US)将在月底前涨至199美元。如果该ETF在到期前上涨6.6%，这笔押注就能实现盈亏平衡。另一项交易涉及支付每份约2.65美元购买约15000份与SPDR标普生物科技ETF(XBI.US)挂钩的看涨期权，行权价格为100美元，11月到期。Jacobson指出，如果该基金未来两个月的涨幅超过16%，这笔交易就会获取收益。投行派杰投资公司（Piper Sandler）的期权交易主管Danny Kirsch注意到，在周一美股最初的反弹期间，出现了一笔规模相当大的衍生品交易。一名交易员以每份90美元的价格买入大概9000份12月到期的标普500指数看涨期权（耗资约8000万美元），期权行权点位为4300点。他预测，如果到期时该指数收于4390点以上，这笔交易将有利可图。该基准美股指数周一收于4110.41点。Kirsch表示：“这笔交易的规模非常大。也许是有人觉得仓位没买够，或者只是单纯看多，希望利用年底之前的涨势。”一连串的买盘交易，使得芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)看跌期权与看涨期权的比率出现7月以来最大跌幅，意味着市场明显转向看涨立场。如果CPI出现以7开头的数字，准备好迎接巨浪cc一种观点认为，今晚的通胀数据已经完全被市场消化，不会对美股走势或美联储决策产生影响，直到CPI降至2%的目标水平，美联储才会放松政策。另一种观点——呼应最近美联储的相关言论，认为CPI对美联储即将做出的利率决定至关重要，即使加息75个基点的可能性最近两周内超过了90%。后者的理由包括，纽约联储9月12日的最新调查显示，8月消费者对未来1年和3年的通胀增速预期急剧下降，受访者对美国未来3年通胀预期降至2.8%，创下了2020年11月以来的新低；受访者对未来1年的通胀预期也降至5.7%，创下了去年10月以来的最低水平；五年通胀预期则从2.3%降至2%。同时，3年期盈亏平衡通胀率已经下降到近两年来的最低点。并且，掉期市场定价短期内（2年期）CPI平均涨幅将低于3%（不过预期不包括能源在内的核心CPI涨幅仍将接近4%）。高盛交易员John Flood表示：“所有人都在关注CPI。有趣的动态是，当Nick Timiraos(被称为“新美联储通讯社”)上周发表文章时，美联储实际上提前宣布了9月21日会议加息75个基点的决定。市场则显然希望或者预期在近期汽油价格大幅下跌的情况下，CPI数据将降温。华尔街已经做好准备，核心CPI将继续保持粘性（甚至略微走高）。总体CPI很可能显示出降温迹象，但在近期大幅反弹后，市场不会受到有意义的影响（除非CPI惊人地降至7%以下，那准备戴好“反弹帽”）。如果数据意外更热，比如高于8.5%，市场可能会受到100个点以上的冲击。”摩根大通则预测，“CPI环比连续第二次下滑将对股市构成支撑”，该行策略师Andrew Tyler表示：如果市场继续走高，空头回补是否会让我们在财报季回到4300点？如果是这样的话，将从周二的CPI开始。如果总体CPI同比为百分之7点几，那么我们认为股市将迎来非常强劲的一天。不过，一些分析人士认为，虽然今晚的通胀如果低于预期可能会释放美股市场的“动物精神”，但从宏观上看，这不会真正改变大局：即使通胀最终将回到2%的正常水平，但这也仍需要较长时间。美国银行的下图显示了美国CPI恢复正常需要多长时间。今夜的CPI数据将决定美股是否继续上涨目前，标普500指数距离4270点附近的200日移动均线已不远。有分析师表示，通胀报告出炉后，该指数若未能突破并保持在关键技术支撑位上方，可能表明市场将再次走低。这就是上个月发生的事情。在8月10日美国CPI数据显示美国通胀减速幅度超过预期之后，标普500指数一度飙升至距离200日移动均线仅一步之遥的水平。但该指数随后失去动力，未能重新回到这一关口，当时美国国债收益率快速上升令成长股走势震荡，并颠覆了股市在夏初的7万亿美元反弹行情。咨询服务公司Truist Advisory Services的联席首席投资官Keith Lerner表示，这次的不同之处在于，投资者的仓位已经低迷，这是一个反向迹象。但这也暗示至少部分投资者已准备好迎接坏消息，不需要大举抛售，因为其已经进行了一定程度的对冲。另一轮反弹可能有助于推动该指数自4月以来首次升破200日移动均线。Lerner称，如果标普500指数无法突破这一水准，则表明逆势反弹已经展开，且由于该指数面临4200至4300点的阻力，市场准备再次下跌。尽管如此，美国主要股指近期仍显示出一些弹性，标普500指数突破了50日和100日移动平均线。同时，如果该指数收于200日移动均线上方，将被视为市场长期趋势的一个潜在看涨变化。另外，分析人士表示，随着近期股市上涨，美国金融状况已从近期的紧缩中明显放松。鲍威尔将允许这种“宽松”持续多久，才会再次“放出他的鹰派猎犬”，给市场多头一记耳光？值得注意的是，今年迄今，标普500指数在CPI发布日平均下跌了0.5%，其中5次下跌，3次上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938736035,"gmtCreate":1662676390027,"gmtModify":1676537112919,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938736035","repostId":"1195330694","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195330694","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662644744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195330694?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-08 21:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Frontline interpretation! The European Central Bank's \"largest rate hike in history\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195330694","media":"上海证券报","summary":"欧洲通胀有多焦灼？这不，在加息周期中一向“慢半拍”的欧央行如今也不淡定了，创纪录加息就此开启。8日晚间，欧央行公布利率决议，宣布将三大主要利率均上调75个基点。这是欧央行基准利率有史以来最大幅度上调。","content":"<p><div>How anxious is inflation in Europe? Sure enough, the European Central Bank, which has always been a step behind in the rate hike cycle, is now not calm, and record rate hike have begun. On the evening of the 8th, the European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision, raising all three major interest rates by 75 basis points. This is the largest increase in the ECB's benchmark interest rate in history. The European Central Bank is in dire straits – the Eurozone is facing multiple challenges, including high inflation, an energy crisis, a bleak economic outlook, and a debt crisis. To this end, the European Central Bank raised its rate hike by 50 basis points in July this year for the first time in 11 years, thus ending the eight-year era of \"negative interest rates\" in the Eurozone. Here's the question: rate hike momentum...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LZGBP-ix_dadqeUJoXp4Tw\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Frontline interpretation! The European Central Bank's \"largest rate hike in history\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFrontline interpretation! The European Central Bank's \"largest rate hike in history\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-08 21:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>How anxious is inflation in Europe? Sure enough, the European Central Bank, which has always been a step behind in the rate hike cycle, is now not calm, and record rate hike have begun. On the evening of the 8th, the European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision, raising all three major interest rates by 75 basis points. This is the largest increase in the ECB's benchmark interest rate in history. The European Central Bank is in dire straits – the Eurozone is facing multiple challenges, including high inflation, an energy crisis, a bleak economic outlook, and a debt crisis. To this end, the European Central Bank raised its rate hike by 50 basis points in July this year for the first time in 11 years, thus ending the eight-year era of \"negative interest rates\" in the Eurozone. Here's the question: rate hike momentum...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LZGBP-ix_dadqeUJoXp4Tw\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LZGBP-ix_dadqeUJoXp4Tw\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LZGBP-ix_dadqeUJoXp4Tw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195330694","content_text":"欧洲通胀有多焦灼？这不，在加息周期中一向“慢半拍”的欧央行如今也不淡定了，创纪录加息就此开启。8日晚间，欧央行公布利率决议，宣布将三大主要利率均上调75个基点。这是欧央行基准利率有史以来最大幅度上调。欧央行正焦头烂额——欧元区面临着通胀高企、能源危机、经济前景暗淡、债务危机多重困境。为此，欧央行在今年7月加息50个基点，为11年来首次，就此终结欧元区持续8年之久的“负利率”时代。问题来了：加息势头越来越猛，能扼住欧元区的滚滚通胀热浪吗？对货币紧缩展现坚定决心的并不只有欧央行。美联储主席鲍威尔今日在参加卡托研究所举办的货币政策讨论会上发表讲话。他表示，美联储认为需要直截了当地对通胀采取行动，并重申“历史告诫我们，不要‘过早’放松政策”。这也是他在即将召开的美联储货币政策会议之前的最后一次公开讲话。能源危机“火烧眉毛”欧元区经济困境难解竖起创纪录加息“大旗”的背后，是欧元区深陷高通胀的现状。“断气”阴霾挥之不去，叠加高温侵袭，欧元区的能源成本经历了前所未有的飙升，给欧元区已处于高热的通胀频频“浇油”。欧盟统计局网站最新数据显示，欧元区8月消费价格（CPI）同比初值为9.1%，高于市场预期的9%，再创历史新高。其中，能源价格8月上涨逾38%，是通胀走高的主要原因。欧央行如今有点进退维谷。业内认为，欧洲央行将不得不更积极加息，以防止通胀数据飙升至两位数。但如果欧洲央行激进加息，GDP或以更快速度下滑。能源供应的不确定性使得短期内欧元区通胀高烧难退。“只要通胀继续上升，欧洲央行就别无选择，只能加快货币紧缩步伐。”瑞士百达财富管理宏观经济研究主管杜泽飞表示，欧元区的通胀还未见顶。到2022年四季度，欧元区整体通胀率可能会高达10%。但激进加息势必影响到经济前景。杜泽飞表示，欧元区所面临的能源问题和冬季经济衰退较为严峻，预计欧元区的全年GDP增长将从2022年的2.9%，下降至2023年零增长。欧洲央行也最新下调了其对于2023年的GDP增速预测数据：预计2023年与2024年GDP增速分别为0.9%、1.9%，前值分别为2.1%和2.1%。业内人士认为，为应对通胀，欧央行大举加息，或将加剧欧元区各经济体之间分化，并不断放大希腊、意大利等经济体的债务压力，市场需要警惕“欧债危机”重演的可能性。欧元汇率“翻身”难遗憾的是，上一轮欧央行大幅加息并未明显提振欧元颓势。近日，欧元对美元汇率跌破0.99关口，再度刷新20年来低位。囿于经济前景暗淡、能源危机、通胀高企等因素，今年以来，欧元对美元已多次跌破平价，年内跌幅近12%。纽约梅隆银行稍早前公布的数据显示，投资者对欧元的看跌情绪已经超过了2020年10月的水平。加息能解欧元所面临的困局吗？瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）认为，即使欧洲央行大幅加息，也不太可能持续提振欧元。尤其是上周，俄罗斯决定停止通过北溪1号管道向德国供气，市场对欧元区经济增长较为担忧，将影响欧元表现。中欧国际工商学院教授、中国人民银行调查统计司原司长盛松成认为，在能源危机和经济放缓同时发生的背景下，欧央行加息对于扭转欧元贬值趋势的作用较为有限。9月8日，欧洲央行公布利率决议之后，欧元对美元直线拉升，最高至1.0029，随后，又冲高回落。截至记者发稿，欧元对美元完全回吐此前涨幅，再度跌破平价，报0.9977。全球央行放“鹰”经济衰退风险上升不仅仅是欧央行，全球大通胀下，各大央行近期纷纷憋“加息”大招。本周，澳大利亚央行将基准利率上调50个基点至2.35%，这也是该央行连续第四次加息50个基点。下周，英国央行也将召开货币政策会议，目前市场基准预期是加息75个基点，“只有立即采取更有力的行动，才能确保高通胀趋势不会成为常态，否则未来可能要经历更深、更长的经济衰退才能让通胀回到目标水平。”英国央行官员曼恩(Catherine Mann)近日呼吁，尽快采取“强有力的”行动来控制通胀。瑞银CIO表示，预计美联储将在年底前再加息100个基点，而且如果通胀没有如期放缓，美联储可能会进一步紧缩政策。通胀态势难料，全球各大央行加息步伐短期内难以结束。“在高通胀的环境下，许多投资者此前低估了各国央行收紧政策的意愿，而美欧央行的立场及美国劳动力数据都强化了此观点。”瑞银CIO认为。景顺首席全球市场策略师Kristina Hooper表示，各大主要央行坚守强硬立场，会对全球科技股价格施加下行压力。前瞻性指标显示，在未来几个月里，经济低迷可能会加剧，这意味经济衰退风险已经上升。瑞士百达财富管理亚洲宏观经济研究主管陈东预期，未来10年，美国及欧元区的潜在GDP增长均值分别为2.0%及1.6%；并估计结构性通胀将在美国达到长期年均2.8%（疫情前年均为1.8%），在欧元区达到1.9%（疫情前年均为1.4%）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939542943,"gmtCreate":1662150286482,"gmtModify":1676537006534,"author":{"id":"4098842610598930","authorId":"4098842610598930","name":"百汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31678af4c548818cbd1ca8654ad27c8f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098842610598930","idStr":"4098842610598930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939542943","repostId":"1164330592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164330592","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662128697,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164330592?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-02 22:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Commentary: What state will the world enter with the G7's price cap on Russian crude oil?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164330592","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"全球化的今天，任何一个制裁都是双刃剑。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>September 2nd,<b>The G7 has reached an agreement on setting a price cap on Russian oil.</b></p><p>First of all, it should be noted that three G7 countries have restricted Russian crude oil imports: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. Therefore, this \"price cap agreement\" mainly requires the support of four countries: Japan, Germany, France, and Italy. However, the ultimate goal of this \"price cap agreement\" is not these seven countries, but rather the hope to use the agreement reached by the G7 to bind all countries in the world to comply, thereby forming a buyer's alliance. After the G7 price cap agreement is reached, Germany and France will exert pressure within the EU to demand that EU member states comply. The United States is currently trying to lobby India, hoping that India will join in.</p><p>The background to this price cap agreement needs no further introduction. After six months of war, Russia's economy not only did not collapse, but the European economy became increasingly dangerous, and inflation in the United States remained high. Recently, there has been news that well-known hedge funds have resumed shorting Europe. In today's globalized world, any sanction is a double-edged sword. It is difficult to say that the damage to the enemy will be greater than the damage to oneself. The same principle applies to the sanctions against Russia and the trade war against China. Therefore, after much deliberation, the United States came up with the price cap method, hoping to alleviate its own inflation problem (by buying oil at low prices) while also causing losses to the Russian economy.</p><p>A crucial technical question: how will this price limit be implemented?</p><p>In a free market economy, selling and buying are all voluntary actions. How can this price limit be enforced? The United States thought of insurance. There is a large shipping insurance mutual aid organization worldwide called the International Group of P&I Clubs, headquartered in London. According to this website, 95% of the world's oil tankers are part of this mutual aid organization.</p><p>This organization covers all insurance for a cargo ship except for ordinary commercial shipping insurance. Because commercial shipping insurance is unwilling to cover economic losses such as \"war\" or \"oil spills,\" this organization provides insurance for such economic losses. This organization is a non-profit organization. Each ship needs to pay a \"membership fee\" to join, and the insurance fee comes from everyone's \"membership fee\". If a ship engages in outrageous behavior that causes excessive losses, it will be kicked out of the organization.</p><p>The United States starts with this insurance organization. If the crude oil in the tanker does not meet the price limit, the insurance organization will not cover the tanker. In the event of an \"oil spill,\" the shipowner will have to pay for it himself. Doing so will force oil tankers to be afraid to accept Russian crude oil that does not comply with price limits. Even if buyers and sellers reach an agreement, they will not be able to find tankers to transport it. It is truly remarkable that all organizations around the world are under the control of the United States, providing the United States with countless tools to strike its adversaries.</p><p>Whether this can actually drive down Russian crude oil prices depends on whether Russia is willing to fight to the death. If you don't allow oil tankers to transport my crude oil, then I don't have to sell it to you. Currently, Russia's crude oil exports rely on pipelines and shipping. The pipeline mainly leads to Europe and China. If Europe is cut off, then the land pipeline can only transport to China to the east. India's imports, which require sea freight, are likely to be most affected.</p><p>There is a question that needs to be explained: if all Russian crude oil is banned, what state will the world enter? Because Russia is the world's second-largest crude oil producer, second only to the United States, if Russian crude oil is blocked, the global crude oil supply will seriously mismatch demand. The world's rich countries will compete with each other to drive up oil prices. The effect of driving up prices is to deprive poor countries of their demand (making them unable to afford crude oil and reducing their demand). The end result is that rich countries use expensive crude oil, while poor countries are paralyzed because they do not have crude oil.</p><p>If the US strategy is believed to work, then crude oil prices may decline; But if we believe Russia dares to fight to the death, then global crude oil supply will drop sharply, and prices could return to $120 or even higher—which do you think is more likely?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Commentary: What state will the world enter with the G7's price cap on Russian crude oil?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Commentary: What state will the world enter with the G7's price cap on Russian crude oil?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-02 22:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>September 2nd,<b>The G7 has reached an agreement on setting a price cap on Russian oil.</b></p><p>First of all, it should be noted that three G7 countries have restricted Russian crude oil imports: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. Therefore, this \"price cap agreement\" mainly requires the support of four countries: Japan, Germany, France, and Italy. However, the ultimate goal of this \"price cap agreement\" is not these seven countries, but rather the hope to use the agreement reached by the G7 to bind all countries in the world to comply, thereby forming a buyer's alliance. After the G7 price cap agreement is reached, Germany and France will exert pressure within the EU to demand that EU member states comply. The United States is currently trying to lobby India, hoping that India will join in.</p><p>The background to this price cap agreement needs no further introduction. After six months of war, Russia's economy not only did not collapse, but the European economy became increasingly dangerous, and inflation in the United States remained high. Recently, there has been news that well-known hedge funds have resumed shorting Europe. In today's globalized world, any sanction is a double-edged sword. It is difficult to say that the damage to the enemy will be greater than the damage to oneself. The same principle applies to the sanctions against Russia and the trade war against China. Therefore, after much deliberation, the United States came up with the price cap method, hoping to alleviate its own inflation problem (by buying oil at low prices) while also causing losses to the Russian economy.</p><p>A crucial technical question: how will this price limit be implemented?</p><p>In a free market economy, selling and buying are all voluntary actions. How can this price limit be enforced? The United States thought of insurance. There is a large shipping insurance mutual aid organization worldwide called the International Group of P&I Clubs, headquartered in London. According to this website, 95% of the world's oil tankers are part of this mutual aid organization.</p><p>This organization covers all insurance for a cargo ship except for ordinary commercial shipping insurance. Because commercial shipping insurance is unwilling to cover economic losses such as \"war\" or \"oil spills,\" this organization provides insurance for such economic losses. This organization is a non-profit organization. Each ship needs to pay a \"membership fee\" to join, and the insurance fee comes from everyone's \"membership fee\". If a ship engages in outrageous behavior that causes excessive losses, it will be kicked out of the organization.</p><p>The United States starts with this insurance organization. If the crude oil in the tanker does not meet the price limit, the insurance organization will not cover the tanker. In the event of an \"oil spill,\" the shipowner will have to pay for it himself. Doing so will force oil tankers to be afraid to accept Russian crude oil that does not comply with price limits. Even if buyers and sellers reach an agreement, they will not be able to find tankers to transport it. It is truly remarkable that all organizations around the world are under the control of the United States, providing the United States with countless tools to strike its adversaries.</p><p>Whether this can actually drive down Russian crude oil prices depends on whether Russia is willing to fight to the death. If you don't allow oil tankers to transport my crude oil, then I don't have to sell it to you. Currently, Russia's crude oil exports rely on pipelines and shipping. The pipeline mainly leads to Europe and China. If Europe is cut off, then the land pipeline can only transport to China to the east. India's imports, which require sea freight, are likely to be most affected.</p><p>There is a question that needs to be explained: if all Russian crude oil is banned, what state will the world enter? Because Russia is the world's second-largest crude oil producer, second only to the United States, if Russian crude oil is blocked, the global crude oil supply will seriously mismatch demand. The world's rich countries will compete with each other to drive up oil prices. The effect of driving up prices is to deprive poor countries of their demand (making them unable to afford crude oil and reducing their demand). The end result is that rich countries use expensive crude oil, while poor countries are paralyzed because they do not have crude oil.</p><p>If the US strategy is believed to work, then crude oil prices may decline; But if we believe Russia dares to fight to the death, then global crude oil supply will drop sharply, and prices could return to $120 or even higher—which do you think is more likely?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164330592","content_text":"9月2日，七国集团就对俄罗斯石油设定价格上限达成一致。首先需要说明，G7国家中有3个国家已经限制了俄罗斯原油进口，分别是美国、英国和加拿大。所以这个“限价协议”主要需要4个国家支持，分别是日本、德国、法国和意大利。但这个“限价协议”的最终目标不是这7个国家，而是希望用G7达成的协议，去约束全世界所有国家遵守，从而形成一个买方联盟。G7的限价协议达成以后，德国法国会在欧盟内部施加压力，要求欧盟成员国遵守；美国目前在努力游说印度，希望印度也加入。这个限价协议的背景就不用过多介绍了。战争打了半年，俄罗斯的经济非但没有崩盘，反倒是欧洲的经济越来越危险，美国的通胀也居高不下。最近，又有新闻称著名对冲基金重新开始做空欧洲。全球化的今天，任何一个制裁都是双刃剑，很难说对敌人的伤害会大于对自己的伤害，对俄罗斯的制裁和对中国的贸易战，都是同样的道理。所以美国想来想去，想到了限价这个办法，希望一方面缓解自己的通胀问题（低价买石油），一方面又让俄罗斯的经济遭受损失。一个很关键的技术性问题，这个限价怎么执行？自由市场经济你卖我买都是自愿行为，怎么去执行这个限价呢？美国想到了保险。全世界有一个很大的航运保险互助组织，叫做International Group of P&I Clubs，总部在伦敦。根据这个网站的信息，全世界95%的油轮都在这个互助组织里面。一艘货轮除了普通的商业航运保险之外，剩下的保险都被这个组织所包含。因为商业航运保险，不会愿意承保诸如“战争”“原油泄漏”这类的经济损失，所以这个组织就会给这类经济损失提供保险。这个组织是个非盈利性组织，每艘船要想加入就需要交“份子钱”，而承保费用就来自于大家的“份子钱”。如果某一艘船有一些离谱的行为，导致损失过大，那么会被这个组织踢出去。美国从这个保险组织下手，如果油轮里面的原油不符合限价，那么保险组织就不会对这个油轮承保，一旦发生“原油泄漏”那么船主只能自己赔。这么做，就会逼迫油轮不敢接受不遵守限价的俄罗斯原油，即使买家和卖家都达成了协议，但是也会找不到油轮去运输。不得不感叹，全世界的所有组织都在美国的控制之下，给美国提供了无数的工具可以打击对手。这么做究竟能不能把俄罗斯的原油价格逼下来，关键在于俄罗斯愿不愿意鱼死网破。你不让油轮运我的原油，那我也可以不卖给你。目前俄罗斯的原油出口要靠管道和航运。管道主要是通向欧洲和中国，如果欧洲断了，那么陆地管道只有向东边的中国运输。印度的进口需要海运，受影响可能会最大。有一个问题需要解释一下，如果俄罗斯的原油全被禁止，那么世界会进入什么状态？因为俄罗斯原油产量世界第二，仅次于美国，所以一旦封杀掉俄罗斯的原油，那么世界原油供给量会严重不匹配需求。世界上的富裕国家就会相互竞标把油价炒高，炒高价格的作用是把穷国家的需求给剥夺（让他们买不起原油，减少它们的需求），最后的结果就是富裕国家用昂贵的原油，而穷国家因为没有原油陷入瘫痪。如果认为美国的策略会起作用，那么原油价格可能会下滑；但如果认为俄罗斯敢鱼死网破，那么全球原油供给大幅下降，价格可能重回$120甚至更高——你认为哪种可能性大呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}