Image by Ned Davis Research Inc. In September 2022, this recession probability model hit 98%. Does it mean that we should panic and sell everything because we're gonna go to hell? Or is it a time that the market may actually bottom? When this model meets that exact same signal in the past, where was the stock market? 🧠 The stock market was at the bottom — in fact at the early stages of the new bull market! Why is it that when this model tells us that it's a recession, the stock market has actually bottomed and is near the bottom, right before it starts going up? 🧠 Remember that all these models are lagging indicators. By the time they tell you it's a recession, it's already in a recession in fact it's during the middle of the recession or towards the tail end of it. Other times