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singsongone 1n

Focusing on US equity investment logic

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2025-10-10

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2025-12-11

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2025-12-30

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2024-10-17

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1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557033280229776","repostId":"1143173819","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143173819","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777025517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143173819?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-24 18:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A week's bull and bear list of Hong Kong stocks | MANYCORE TECH rose by more than 53% to lead, and Shanghai Aunt and Botai Car Union broke out strongly; Easy Health plummeted 67% to lead the decline, Norbican and Paige Bio weakened simultaneously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143173819","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"MANYCORE TECH于4月17日登陆港交所，发行价7.62港元，上市首日升超180%。该股近7个交易日累计升幅超102%。4月22日股价大涨25.15%，较40港元招股价升幅突破200%，创上市新高。公司今年以来累计跌幅已达57.39%，市值持续缩水引发抛压。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>Summarize the whole week (April 20-April 24),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">Hang Seng Index</a>Down 182.26 points or 0.70%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">Hang Seng Technology Index</a>down 140.48 points or 2.79%;</p><p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li>The five best-performing stocks with a market value of more than 10 billion and an average daily turnover of more than 10 million this week are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00068\">MANYCORE TECH</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02589\">Shanghai Auntie</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">PATEO Automotive Union</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06636\">Polar viewing angle</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02632\">Zejing Shares</a>；</p><p></li><li>The five worst-performing stocks are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02575\">Xuanzhu Bio-B</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01384\">Dipu Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02565\">Paige Biomedical-B</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02635\">Norbican</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02661\">Easy Healthy</a>。</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4835410e42943343dcbbbace472ea92a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1715\"/></p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2539767564\">1. Analysis of stocks with the top gains</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00068\">MANYCORE TECH</a>(00068.HK) rose by 53.12% this week. After the listing of new shares, it continued to speculate, and the over-allotment option was exercised. The concept of \"space intelligence first stock\" was sought after</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the continuous heat after the listing of new shares. MANYCORE TECH landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 17th, with an issue price of HK$7.62, rising by more than 180% on the first day of listing. On April 20th, the next day of listing, the share price rose violently again, with a single-day increase of more than 101%, and the earlier issue price rose by about 391%.</p><p>As \"the first share of Hangzhou Six Little Dragons\" and \"the first share of global space intelligence\", the company's IPO public offering was subscribed for over 1,590 times, and the market heat was extremely high. On April 20th, the sponsor fully exercised the over-allotment option, raising an additional fund of approximately HK$174.4 million, further strengthening market confidence. In 2025, the company's revenue will be 820 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 82.2%. The adjusted net profit will turn losses into profits of 57.127 million yuan, and the net income retention rate of major customers will be 109%.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02589\">Shanghai Auntie</a>(02589.HK) rose by 48.79% this week. The controlling shareholder extended the lock-up period to boost confidence, and the rapid expansion of store scale is optimistic about subsequent growth</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this sharp rise in share price is mainly driven by the dual factors of shareholders' extension of the lock-up period and institutions' optimism about store expansion. On the basis of the original lock-up period, the controlling shareholders' camp extended the lock-up period for 6 months to November 7, 2026, and other pre-IPO shareholders extended the lock-up period for 3 months to August 7, 2026, demonstrating the confidence of major shareholders in the company's prospects.</p><p>In terms of fundamentals, as of the fourth quarter of last year, the total number of stores of the company reached 11,449, up 24.8% year-on-year. In the second half of the year, 2,749 newly opened stores accounted for more than 75% of the whole year. Galaxy Securities expects that the company's store scale will continue to maintain a stable and high-speed expansion trend in 2026. The stock has increased by more than 102% in the past seven trading days.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">PATEO Automotive Union</a>(02889.HK) increased by 29.36% this week, announcing in-depth cooperation with Horizon, Nvidia and leading car companies to promote the integration of cabin driving and mass production of large vehicle models</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by a number of heavy cooperations. At noon on April 22nd, the company announced a signing ceremony with Horizon to promote the landing of cabin-driving integration of vehicle intelligence. On the evening of April 23rd, the company announced that it had reached a series of in-depth cooperation with a leading OEM new energy vehicle company and NVIDIA, including developing a vehicle-side large model solution based on NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor accelerated computing platform, deploying AI BOX, and obtaining a fixed point for mass production of a new generation of intelligent vehicles.</p><p>After the release of the cooperation, the company's share price opened nearly 15% higher, rising by more than 23%, promoting the \"large model on the bus\" from technical verification to large-scale mass production, and making substantial progress in the landing of AI vehicle-mounted large models and the application of high-order computing power platform.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06636\">Polar viewing angle</a>(06636.HK) rose by 25.13% this week. As the \"first stock of visual large model\", driven by the popularity of AI track, the IPO oversubscription multiple was astonishing, and the share price hit a new high for listing</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the heat of AI vision large model track. Perspective was listed on March 30th, and the public offering in Hong Kong was oversubscribed by 4,591 times, which was called \"the first stock of visual large model\". On April 22nd, the share price rose by 25.15%, exceeding 200% from the IPO price of HK$ 40, setting a new high for listing.</p><p>The company's core competitiveness lies in the self-developed large visual language model, which covers more than 80% of common visual perception scenarios, and can realize complex cross-modal reasoning and interaction. Customers cover many core fields such as industrial manufacturing, smart energy, smart retail and smart transportation. Recently, the profit-making effect of IPO new shares is obvious, and the market is pursuing high-quality enterprises in AI segment track, which has become a catalyst for growth.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02632\">Zejing Shares</a>(02632.HK) has risen by 22.99% this week. The prosperity of the automotive HUD industry is high. The company has been designated by many automakers, and the institution predicts that the compound market growth rate will be nearly 28%</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the prosperity of the automobile HUD industry. Zejing Co., Ltd. is the second largest HUD solution provider in China, with a market share of 16.2% and a cumulative sales volume of 1.9 million sets. It has been awarded 18 car manufacturer customers such as Nio, Xiaomi Automobile and Ideal and 101 model designations. On the afternoon of April 23rd, the stock price once rose by more than 17%, hitting a record high.</p><p>According to the International Research Report of SDIC Securities, it is expected that the sales of vehicle HUDs in China will increase to about 12.7 million units in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.9% from 2025 to 2029. The HUD market has a broad prospect. Institutions are optimistic about the company's industry status and growth prospects, which drives the stock price to continue to strengthen.<br/></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3980243290\">II. Analysis of stocks with the top declines</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02661\">Easy Healthy</a>(02661.HK) fell 67.01% this week. After the early surge, the bubble burst, and the superimposed financial report turned from profit to loss and the resignation of the chief financial officer triggered panic selling</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price drop is mainly affected by the superposition of multiple factors. On the afternoon of April 20th, the stock price collapsed and plunged, falling from HK$ 157.5 to HK$ 55.1 in 50 minutes, a drop of 60.34% in the whole day. The market value evaporated by more than HK$ 23 billion in just four months after listing. The company's share price has risen more than sixfold since it went public in December, and the market is widely believed to have accumulated a huge bubble.</p><p>The 2025 financial report shows that although revenue increased by 32.9% year-on-year to 1.256 billion yuan, continuing operations turned from a profit of 9 million yuan in 2024 to a net loss of 380 million yuan. In addition, the chief financial officer and an independent director resigned on 17 April. The market's concerns about the company's fundamentals superimposed the pressure of profit-taking after the previous surge triggered panic selling.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02565\">Paige Biomedical-B</a>(02565.HK) fell by 31.63% this week. The full circulation of H shares brought more than 100 million shares expansion pressure, and the fundamental uncertainty of unprofitable biotechnology stocks increased</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price plunge is mainly driven by the expansion pressure brought by the full circulation of H shares. On April 21st, the company announced that it had received the filing notice of full circulation of H shares from China Securities Regulatory Commission, and 102 million unlisted shares were about to be converted into H shares for circulation and listing, and the potential expansion pressure appeared. Since the beginning of this year, the company's cumulative decline has reached 57.39%, and the continuous shrinking market value has caused selling pressure.</p><p>As an unprofitable biotechnology company, the company's profit model depends on the future drug listing and sales. The current huge investment in R&D has led to continuous losses, and the fundamental uncertainty has aggravated the market's concerns about the impact of the lifting of the stock ban.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01384\">Dipu Technology</a>(01384.HK) fell by 26.14% this week, recording losses for four consecutive years. The performance fundamentals did not keep up with the previous \"enterprise AI\" theme hype, and the stock price continued to pull back</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, the continuous pressure on the stock price this time is mainly affected by the performance loss and the adjustment after the previous speculation. Although the company's revenue increased significantly in 2025, it has been losing money for four consecutive years, and its share price accelerated after the annual report was released.</p><p>Previously, the stock had suffered a cliff-like plunge at a high in early March, with the highest cumulative decline of 76%. In the early stage, under the theme of \"the first share of enterprise AI\", the funds slowly raised the stock price with the help of the expectation of entry, but the performance fundamentals have not yet achieved profitability, and there has been an obvious correction after the market heat has ebbed.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A week's bull and bear list of Hong Kong stocks | MANYCORE TECH rose by more than 53% to lead, and Shanghai Aunt and Botai Car Union broke out strongly; Easy Health plummeted 67% to lead the decline, Norbican and Paige Bio weakened simultaneously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA week's bull and bear list of Hong Kong stocks | MANYCORE TECH rose by more than 53% to lead, and Shanghai Aunt and Botai Car Union broke out strongly; Easy Health plummeted 67% to lead the decline, Norbican and Paige Bio weakened simultaneously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-24 18:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li>Summarize the whole week (April 20-April 24),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">Hang Seng Index</a>Down 182.26 points or 0.70%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">Hang Seng Technology Index</a>down 140.48 points or 2.79%;</p><p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li>The five best-performing stocks with a market value of more than 10 billion and an average daily turnover of more than 10 million this week are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00068\">MANYCORE TECH</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02589\">Shanghai Auntie</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">PATEO Automotive Union</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06636\">Polar viewing angle</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02632\">Zejing Shares</a>；</p><p></li><li>The five worst-performing stocks are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02575\">Xuanzhu Bio-B</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01384\">Dipu Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02565\">Paige Biomedical-B</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02635\">Norbican</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02661\">Easy Healthy</a>。</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4835410e42943343dcbbbace472ea92a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1715\"/></p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2539767564\">1. Analysis of stocks with the top gains</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00068\">MANYCORE TECH</a>(00068.HK) rose by 53.12% this week. After the listing of new shares, it continued to speculate, and the over-allotment option was exercised. The concept of \"space intelligence first stock\" was sought after</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the continuous heat after the listing of new shares. MANYCORE TECH landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 17th, with an issue price of HK$7.62, rising by more than 180% on the first day of listing. On April 20th, the next day of listing, the share price rose violently again, with a single-day increase of more than 101%, and the earlier issue price rose by about 391%.</p><p>As \"the first share of Hangzhou Six Little Dragons\" and \"the first share of global space intelligence\", the company's IPO public offering was subscribed for over 1,590 times, and the market heat was extremely high. On April 20th, the sponsor fully exercised the over-allotment option, raising an additional fund of approximately HK$174.4 million, further strengthening market confidence. In 2025, the company's revenue will be 820 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 82.2%. The adjusted net profit will turn losses into profits of 57.127 million yuan, and the net income retention rate of major customers will be 109%.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02589\">Shanghai Auntie</a>(02589.HK) rose by 48.79% this week. The controlling shareholder extended the lock-up period to boost confidence, and the rapid expansion of store scale is optimistic about subsequent growth</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this sharp rise in share price is mainly driven by the dual factors of shareholders' extension of the lock-up period and institutions' optimism about store expansion. On the basis of the original lock-up period, the controlling shareholders' camp extended the lock-up period for 6 months to November 7, 2026, and other pre-IPO shareholders extended the lock-up period for 3 months to August 7, 2026, demonstrating the confidence of major shareholders in the company's prospects.</p><p>In terms of fundamentals, as of the fourth quarter of last year, the total number of stores of the company reached 11,449, up 24.8% year-on-year. In the second half of the year, 2,749 newly opened stores accounted for more than 75% of the whole year. Galaxy Securities expects that the company's store scale will continue to maintain a stable and high-speed expansion trend in 2026. The stock has increased by more than 102% in the past seven trading days.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">PATEO Automotive Union</a>(02889.HK) increased by 29.36% this week, announcing in-depth cooperation with Horizon, Nvidia and leading car companies to promote the integration of cabin driving and mass production of large vehicle models</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by a number of heavy cooperations. At noon on April 22nd, the company announced a signing ceremony with Horizon to promote the landing of cabin-driving integration of vehicle intelligence. On the evening of April 23rd, the company announced that it had reached a series of in-depth cooperation with a leading OEM new energy vehicle company and NVIDIA, including developing a vehicle-side large model solution based on NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor accelerated computing platform, deploying AI BOX, and obtaining a fixed point for mass production of a new generation of intelligent vehicles.</p><p>After the release of the cooperation, the company's share price opened nearly 15% higher, rising by more than 23%, promoting the \"large model on the bus\" from technical verification to large-scale mass production, and making substantial progress in the landing of AI vehicle-mounted large models and the application of high-order computing power platform.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06636\">Polar viewing angle</a>(06636.HK) rose by 25.13% this week. As the \"first stock of visual large model\", driven by the popularity of AI track, the IPO oversubscription multiple was astonishing, and the share price hit a new high for listing</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the heat of AI vision large model track. Perspective was listed on March 30th, and the public offering in Hong Kong was oversubscribed by 4,591 times, which was called \"the first stock of visual large model\". On April 22nd, the share price rose by 25.15%, exceeding 200% from the IPO price of HK$ 40, setting a new high for listing.</p><p>The company's core competitiveness lies in the self-developed large visual language model, which covers more than 80% of common visual perception scenarios, and can realize complex cross-modal reasoning and interaction. Customers cover many core fields such as industrial manufacturing, smart energy, smart retail and smart transportation. Recently, the profit-making effect of IPO new shares is obvious, and the market is pursuing high-quality enterprises in AI segment track, which has become a catalyst for growth.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02632\">Zejing Shares</a>(02632.HK) has risen by 22.99% this week. The prosperity of the automotive HUD industry is high. The company has been designated by many automakers, and the institution predicts that the compound market growth rate will be nearly 28%</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price rise is mainly driven by the prosperity of the automobile HUD industry. Zejing Co., Ltd. is the second largest HUD solution provider in China, with a market share of 16.2% and a cumulative sales volume of 1.9 million sets. It has been awarded 18 car manufacturer customers such as Nio, Xiaomi Automobile and Ideal and 101 model designations. On the afternoon of April 23rd, the stock price once rose by more than 17%, hitting a record high.</p><p>According to the International Research Report of SDIC Securities, it is expected that the sales of vehicle HUDs in China will increase to about 12.7 million units in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.9% from 2025 to 2029. The HUD market has a broad prospect. Institutions are optimistic about the company's industry status and growth prospects, which drives the stock price to continue to strengthen.<br/></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3980243290\">II. Analysis of stocks with the top declines</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02661\">Easy Healthy</a>(02661.HK) fell 67.01% this week. After the early surge, the bubble burst, and the superimposed financial report turned from profit to loss and the resignation of the chief financial officer triggered panic selling</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price drop is mainly affected by the superposition of multiple factors. On the afternoon of April 20th, the stock price collapsed and plunged, falling from HK$ 157.5 to HK$ 55.1 in 50 minutes, a drop of 60.34% in the whole day. The market value evaporated by more than HK$ 23 billion in just four months after listing. The company's share price has risen more than sixfold since it went public in December, and the market is widely believed to have accumulated a huge bubble.</p><p>The 2025 financial report shows that although revenue increased by 32.9% year-on-year to 1.256 billion yuan, continuing operations turned from a profit of 9 million yuan in 2024 to a net loss of 380 million yuan. In addition, the chief financial officer and an independent director resigned on 17 April. The market's concerns about the company's fundamentals superimposed the pressure of profit-taking after the previous surge triggered panic selling.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02565\">Paige Biomedical-B</a>(02565.HK) fell by 31.63% this week. The full circulation of H shares brought more than 100 million shares expansion pressure, and the fundamental uncertainty of unprofitable biotechnology stocks increased</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, this share price plunge is mainly driven by the expansion pressure brought by the full circulation of H shares. On April 21st, the company announced that it had received the filing notice of full circulation of H shares from China Securities Regulatory Commission, and 102 million unlisted shares were about to be converted into H shares for circulation and listing, and the potential expansion pressure appeared. Since the beginning of this year, the company's cumulative decline has reached 57.39%, and the continuous shrinking market value has caused selling pressure.</p><p>As an unprofitable biotechnology company, the company's profit model depends on the future drug listing and sales. The current huge investment in R&D has led to continuous losses, and the fundamental uncertainty has aggravated the market's concerns about the impact of the lifting of the stock ban.</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01384\">Dipu Technology</a>(01384.HK) fell by 26.14% this week, recording losses for four consecutive years. The performance fundamentals did not keep up with the previous \"enterprise AI\" theme hype, and the stock price continued to pull back</strong></p><p></li></ul>On the news side, the continuous pressure on the stock price this time is mainly affected by the performance loss and the adjustment after the previous speculation. Although the company's revenue increased significantly in 2025, it has been losing money for four consecutive years, and its share price accelerated after the annual report was released.</p><p>Previously, the stock had suffered a cliff-like plunge at a high in early March, with the highest cumulative decline of 76%. In the early stage, under the theme of \"the first share of enterprise AI\", the funds slowly raised the stock price with the help of the expectation of entry, but the performance fundamentals have not yet achieved profitability, and there has been an obvious correction after the market heat has ebbed.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/549ed9c19f16d97443cb9ffadc6a6514","relate_stocks":{"01384":"滴普科技","02632":"泽景股份","00068":"群核科技","06636":"极视角","02575":"轩竹生物-B","02635":"诺比侃","02889":"博泰车联","02589":"沪上阿姨","02661":"轻松健康","02565":"派格生物医药-B"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143173819","content_text":"总结全周（4月20日-4月24日）， 恒生指数 跌182.26点或0.70%， 恒生科技指数 跌140.48点或2.79%；本周市值百亿以上、日均成交千万以上表现最好五只股票是 MANYCORE TECH 、 沪上阿姨 、博泰车联 、极视角、泽景股份 ；表现最差的五只股票是 轩竹生物-B、滴普科技、派格生物医药-B、 诺比侃、轻松健康。一、涨幅居前个股解析 MANYCORE TECH (00068.HK) 本周累升53.12%，新股上市后持续热炒，超额配股权获行使叠加“空间智能第一股”概念受追捧消息面上，本次股价大升主要由新股上市后的持续热度驱动。MANYCORE TECH于4月17日登陆港交所，发行价7.62港元，上市首日升超180%。4月20日上市次日股价再度暴力拉升，单日升幅突破101%，较早前发行价累计大升约391%。作为“杭州六小龙第一股”及“全球空间智能第一股”，公司IPO公开发售部分获超1590倍认购，市场热度极高。4月20日保荐人悉数行使超额配股权，额外筹资约1.744亿港元，进一步强化市场信心。公司2025年营收8.2亿元，毛利率高达82.2%，经调整净利润扭亏为盈达5712.7万元，大客户净收入留存率109%。 沪上阿姨 (02589.HK) 本周累升48.79%，控股股东延长禁售期提振信心，门店规模高速扩张看好后续增长消息面上，本次股价大升主要受股东延长禁售期及机构看好门店扩张双重因素驱动。控股股东阵营在原禁售期基础上延长6个月至2026年11月7日，其他首发前股东延长3个月至2026年8月7日，彰显大股东对公司前景的信心。基本面方面，截至去年第四季度公司总门店数达11449家，同比升24.8%，下半年新开门店2749家占全年75%以上。银河证券预计2026年公司门店规模将持续保持稳定高速扩张态势。该股近7个交易日累计升幅超102%。 博泰车联 (02889.HK) 本周累升29.36%，宣布与地平线、英伟达及龙头车企达成深度合作，推动舱驾融合及车端大模型量产落地消息面上，本次股价大升主要受多项重磅合作驱动。4月22日午间，公司宣布与地平线举行签约仪式，推动舱驾融合整车智能体落地。4月23日晚间，公司公布与某龙头OEM新能源车企、英伟达达成一系列深度合作，包括基于NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor加速计算平台开发车端大模型解决方案，部署AI BOX，并获得新一代智能车型量产定点。合作发布后，公司股价高开近15%，大升逾23%，推动“大模型上车”从技术验证走向规模化量产，在AI车载大模型落地及高阶算力平台应用方面取得实质性进展。 极视角 (06636.HK) 本周累升25.13%，作为“视觉大模型第一股”受AI赛道热度驱动，IPO超额认购倍数惊人，股价创上市新高消息面上，本次股价大升主要受AI视觉大模型赛道热度驱动。极视角于3月30日上市，香港公开发售斩获4591倍超额认购，被称为“视觉大模型第一股”。4月22日股价大涨25.15%，较40港元招股价升幅突破200%，创上市新高。公司核心竞争力在于自主研发的视觉语言大模型，覆盖超80%常见视觉感知场景，能实现复杂的跨模态推理和交互，客户覆盖工业制造、智慧能源、智慧零售、智慧交通等多个核心领域。近期IPO新股赚钱效应明显，市场对AI细分赛道优质企业追捧，成为升幅催化剂。 泽景股份 (02632.HK) 本周累升22.99%，汽车HUD行业景气度高涨，公司获多家车厂定点，机构预测市场复合增长率近28%消息面上，本次股价大升主要受汽车HUD行业景气度驱动。泽景股份是中国第二大HUD解决方案供应商，市场份额16.2%，累计销量190万套，获得蔚来、小米汽车、理想等18家车厂客户及101个车型定点。4月23日午后股价一度拉升超17%，创历史新高。国投证券国际研报显示，预计2029年中国车载HUD销量将增至约1270万台，2025-2029年复合年均增长率27.9%，HUD市场前景广阔。机构对公司行业地位及成长前景看好，推动股价持续走强。二、跌幅居前个股解析 轻松健康 (02661.HK) 本周累跌67.01%，前期暴涨后泡沫破裂，叠加财报由盈转亏及首席财务官辞任，引发恐慌性抛售消息面上，本次股价大跌主要受多重因素叠加影响。4月20日午后股价闪崩跳水，50分钟内由157.5港元跌至55.1港元，全日跌幅60.34%，上市仅4个月市值蒸发超230亿港元。该公司自去年12月上市以来股价高位升幅逾6倍，市场普遍认为已积累巨大泡沫。2025年财报显示，虽然收入同比增32.9%至12.56亿元，但持续经营业务由2024年的盈利900万元转为净亏损3.80亿元。此外，首席财务官及一位独董在4月17日辞任。市场对公司基本面的担忧叠加前期暴涨后获利了结压力，引发恐慌性抛售。 派格生物医药-B (02565.HK) 本周累跌31.63%，H股全流通带来逾1亿股扩容压力，叠加未盈利生物科技股基本面不确定性增强消息面上，本次股价大跌主要受H股全流通带来的扩容压力驱动。4月21日公司公告收到中证监H股全流通备案通知书，1.02亿股未上市股份即将转为H股流通上市，潜在扩容压力显现。公司今年以来累计跌幅已达57.39%，市值持续缩水引发抛压。公司作为未盈利的生物科技企业，盈利模式依赖未来药品上市销售，当前研发投入巨大导致持续亏损，基本面不确定性加剧了市场对股份解禁冲击的担忧。 滴普科技 (01384.HK) 本周累跌26.14%，连续四年录得亏损，业绩基本面未跟上此前“企业AI”题材炒作，股价持续回调消息面上，本次股价持续受压主要受业绩亏损及前期炒作后调整影响。公司2025年虽然营收大幅增长，但已连续四年亏损，年报发布后股价加速下跌。此前该股曾在3月初高位出现断崖式暴跌，累计最高跌幅高达76%。前期在“企业AI第一股”题材下，资金借助入通预期缓慢拉升股价，但业绩基本面尚未实现盈利，市场热度退潮后出现明显回调。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02565":2,"02589":2,"01384":2,"02635":2,"02575":2,"02661":2,"00068":2,"02889":2,"06636":2,"02632":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033724084408,"gmtCreate":1777018987680,"gmtModify":1777018990574,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6666","listText":"6666","text":"6666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557033724084408","repostId":"1147543947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147543947","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1777018770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147543947?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-24 16:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147543947","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"即便霍尔木兹危机解除，短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台，高盛最新研报指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放，且石油资产未遭受新的打击，海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日，比战前水平低57%，预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。外部机构平均预测显示，重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%，6个月后恢复88%。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业，以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-24 16:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147543947","content_text":"高盛最新研报给出了审慎答案：海湾地区高达1450万桶/日的减产，即便海峡解封，3个月后也仅能恢复70%，6个月后恢复88%。油轮运力骤降50%、油井修复复杂性随停产时长指数级攀升、储层压力不可逆变化……多重硬性约束叠加\"疤痕效应\"，让这场产能重建之路远比市场预期的更为漫长。即便霍尔木兹危机解除，短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台，高盛最新研报指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放，且石油资产未遭受新的打击，海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日，比战前水平低57%，预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。然而，对于原油投资者而言，真正的博弈点在于尾部风险：如果海峡关闭时间显著延长，最后阶段的产能恢复将耗时更久，甚至可能无法完全兑现。外部机构平均预测显示，重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%，6个月后恢复88%。核心制约：运输瓶颈与油井物理特性一旦海峡安全重开，产能恢复并不能一蹴而就，而是面临三大硬性物理与物流约束：去库存的运输能力：管道容量和空船可用性是关键。自战争爆发以来，海湾地区可用的空油轮容量已大幅下降约50%（减少了1.3亿桶，即130 mb）。尽管历史上霍尔木兹海峡的流量峰值曾达到2330万桶/日（正常水平为2000万桶/日），且管道改道峰值曾高出正常水平350万桶/日，但运力紧张仍是首要瓶颈。供应链与劳动力：油田修井作业所需的材料和工人可用性将直接影响复产进度。油井流率的复杂性：强制减产会导致不同类型储层的压力和流率出现复杂变化。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业，以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。正如油服巨头哈里伯顿和威德福高管所言，油井关闭时间越长，重启的复杂性就越高，且无法保证能恢复到完全相同的流率。时间是最大的敌人：关闭越久，恢复越慢研报明确指出，海峡实际关闭的时间越长，减产持续的时间就越久，随后的产量恢复速度就越慢。这种延迟效应主要体现在三个方面：油井需要进行更复杂的修复工作。枯竭的投入品（如钻杆）采购速度变慢。积压库存的去化将更长时间地挤占新产量的运输能力。稳健恢复的底气：物理损伤有限与核心产油国的备用产能尽管存在上述制约，高盛依然认为产能能在几个月内实现“大部分恢复”，主要基于以下三个逻辑：物理破坏有限：与液化天然气（LNG）资产形成鲜明对比的是，目前公开报道显示，油田遭受的物理损坏仍然非常有限。沙特阿美的快速响应能力：沙特阿美总裁兼CEO在3月份曾表示，沙特拥有充足的备用产能，且在某些地区采取的是限制油井流量而非完全关闭的措施，因此产量可以在“几天内，而不是几周内”迅速提升。历史经验与备用产能：历史上的供应中断事件表明，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋通常会部署其可用的备用产能来稳定市场。据估计，在全面安全重开后，两国可部署超过200万桶/日的备用产能。长期尾部风险：储层差异与潜在的“疤痕效应”对于长线投资者而言，必须警惕全面恢复可能需要数个季度，甚至在长期关闭后只能实现部分恢复的风险：油田与国家间的巨大差异：海湾各国在储层特征、基础设施完善度、维护水平以及制裁风险（如伊朗）方面存在显著差异。例如，数据显示，伊朗和伊拉克具有相对低压储层的产量份额高于海湾其他地区（近一半的伊朗储层被评估为低压），这增加了复产难度。历史恢复周期的不确定性：回顾历史上的减产事件，产量恢复的速度和程度存在巨大差异，而当前的冲击规模是史无前例的。战争复发的“疤痕风险”：虽然这不是基准预测，但如果敌对行动恢复，石油生产能力面临巨大“疤痕效应”（永久性损伤）的风险将显著上升，这在过去五次最大的石油供应冲击中已有先例。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033617838752,"gmtCreate":1777018977845,"gmtModify":1777018979833,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557033617838752","repostId":"1147543947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147543947","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1777018770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147543947?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-24 16:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147543947","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"即便霍尔木兹危机解除，短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台，高盛最新研报指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放，且石油资产未遭受新的打击，海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日，比战前水平低57%，预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。外部机构平均预测显示，重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%，6个月后恢复88%。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业，以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-24 16:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147543947","content_text":"高盛最新研报给出了审慎答案：海湾地区高达1450万桶/日的减产，即便海峡解封，3个月后也仅能恢复70%，6个月后恢复88%。油轮运力骤降50%、油井修复复杂性随停产时长指数级攀升、储层压力不可逆变化……多重硬性约束叠加\"疤痕效应\"，让这场产能重建之路远比市场预期的更为漫长。即便霍尔木兹危机解除，短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台，高盛最新研报指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放，且石油资产未遭受新的打击，海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日，比战前水平低57%，预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。然而，对于原油投资者而言，真正的博弈点在于尾部风险：如果海峡关闭时间显著延长，最后阶段的产能恢复将耗时更久，甚至可能无法完全兑现。外部机构平均预测显示，重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%，6个月后恢复88%。核心制约：运输瓶颈与油井物理特性一旦海峡安全重开，产能恢复并不能一蹴而就，而是面临三大硬性物理与物流约束：去库存的运输能力：管道容量和空船可用性是关键。自战争爆发以来，海湾地区可用的空油轮容量已大幅下降约50%（减少了1.3亿桶，即130 mb）。尽管历史上霍尔木兹海峡的流量峰值曾达到2330万桶/日（正常水平为2000万桶/日），且管道改道峰值曾高出正常水平350万桶/日，但运力紧张仍是首要瓶颈。供应链与劳动力：油田修井作业所需的材料和工人可用性将直接影响复产进度。油井流率的复杂性：强制减产会导致不同类型储层的压力和流率出现复杂变化。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业，以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。正如油服巨头哈里伯顿和威德福高管所言，油井关闭时间越长，重启的复杂性就越高，且无法保证能恢复到完全相同的流率。时间是最大的敌人：关闭越久，恢复越慢研报明确指出，海峡实际关闭的时间越长，减产持续的时间就越久，随后的产量恢复速度就越慢。这种延迟效应主要体现在三个方面：油井需要进行更复杂的修复工作。枯竭的投入品（如钻杆）采购速度变慢。积压库存的去化将更长时间地挤占新产量的运输能力。稳健恢复的底气：物理损伤有限与核心产油国的备用产能尽管存在上述制约，高盛依然认为产能能在几个月内实现“大部分恢复”，主要基于以下三个逻辑：物理破坏有限：与液化天然气（LNG）资产形成鲜明对比的是，目前公开报道显示，油田遭受的物理损坏仍然非常有限。沙特阿美的快速响应能力：沙特阿美总裁兼CEO在3月份曾表示，沙特拥有充足的备用产能，且在某些地区采取的是限制油井流量而非完全关闭的措施，因此产量可以在“几天内，而不是几周内”迅速提升。历史经验与备用产能：历史上的供应中断事件表明，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋通常会部署其可用的备用产能来稳定市场。据估计，在全面安全重开后，两国可部署超过200万桶/日的备用产能。长期尾部风险：储层差异与潜在的“疤痕效应”对于长线投资者而言，必须警惕全面恢复可能需要数个季度，甚至在长期关闭后只能实现部分恢复的风险：油田与国家间的巨大差异：海湾各国在储层特征、基础设施完善度、维护水平以及制裁风险（如伊朗）方面存在显著差异。例如，数据显示，伊朗和伊拉克具有相对低压储层的产量份额高于海湾其他地区（近一半的伊朗储层被评估为低压），这增加了复产难度。历史恢复周期的不确定性：回顾历史上的减产事件，产量恢复的速度和程度存在巨大差异，而当前的冲击规模是史无前例的。战争复发的“疤痕风险”：虽然这不是基准预测，但如果敌对行动恢复，石油生产能力面临巨大“疤痕效应”（永久性损伤）的风险将显著上升，这在过去五次最大的石油供应冲击中已有先例。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033101791608,"gmtCreate":1777018935534,"gmtModify":1777018938665,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">$小馬智行(PONY)$</a>行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","text":"$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557068731868344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033374761752,"gmtCreate":1777018920664,"gmtModify":1777018923445,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">$小馬智行(PONY)$</a>行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","text":"$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557068731868344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557032969891952,"gmtCreate":1777018896624,"gmtModify":1777018898797,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">$小馬智行(PONY)$</a>行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","text":"$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557068731868344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557032852051112,"gmtCreate":1777002917340,"gmtModify":1777002920763,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 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[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557030032142528","repostId":"556927221699616","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":556927221699616,"gmtCreate":1776995551573,"gmtModify":1776995554893,"author":{"id":"3581820976934736","authorId":"3581820976934736","name":"MilkTeaBro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f96ac4963a3566e7f4d22e78cc23ef9","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581820976934736","idStr":"3581820976934736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00116\">$CHOW SANG SANG(00116)$ </a> I have held Chow Sang Sang (00116) for a year and decided to add more to my position today. As a traditional jeweler, the company’s book value is largely underpinned by its physical gold inventory, providing a solid asset base.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00116\">$CHOW SANG SANG(00116)$ </a> I have held Chow Sang Sang (00116) for a year and decided to add more to my position today. As a traditional jeweler, the company’s book value is largely underpinned by its physical gold inventory, providing a solid asset base.","text":"$CHOW SANG SANG(00116)$ I have held Chow Sang Sang (00116) for a year and decided to add more to my position today. As a traditional jeweler, the company’s book value is largely underpinned by its physical gold inventory, providing a solid asset base.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cdb403cd4da0189f118100c402c5ed50","width":"882","height":"1620"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/556927221699616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":556676259717776,"gmtCreate":1776934206495,"gmtModify":1776934209531,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/556676259717776","repostId":"2629886124","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629886124","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776932700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2629886124?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-23 16:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629886124","media":"新浪证券","summary":"　　曾凭借国产二价HPV疫苗馨可宁一战成名，登顶A股生物疫苗板块的万泰生物在2025年交出了上市以来最差成绩单。年报数据显示，公司全年实现营业收入18.19亿元，同比下降18.99%；归母净利润-3.98亿元，同比大幅下滑474.89%，历史首次出现年度净亏损。扣除非经常性损益后净亏损进一步扩大至6.23亿元，加权平均净资产收益率跌至-3.30%。　　从季度经营数据来看，万泰生物的亏损呈现逐季加剧态势，经营企稳信号迟迟未现。","content":"<p><html><body><div>Look at stock trading<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">Golden Qilin</a>Analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities!</p><p>Once became famous in World War I with the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin and reached the top of A shares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000504\">biology</a>of the vaccine sector<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a></span><span></span>In 2025, it handed over its worst report card since going public. According to the annual report data, the company's annual operating income was 1.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.99%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was-398 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 474.89% year-on-year, and the first annual net loss in history. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net loss further expanded to 623 million yuan, and the weighted average return on net assets dropped to-3.30%.</p><p>Judging from the quarterly operating data, Wantai Bio's losses are increasing quarter by quarter, and the signal of operating stabilization has not appeared. In the first quarter, the company's loss was 52,776,900 yuan, the loss scale expanded to 91,435,400 yuan in the second quarter, and it briefly narrowed to 28,790,900 yuan in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the loss in a single quarter soared to 225 million yuan, exceeding the total loss in the first three quarters. At the same time, risks such as inventory backlog, reduced capital utilization rate, idle production capacity and asset impairment are concentrated, which not only greatly drags down the current profit, but also becomes a potential burden for subsequent operations.</p><p>　<strong>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets, two main businesses both lost</strong></p><p>The core reason for the huge loss of Wantai Biological's performance is that its two main businesses fell into recession at the same time. The vaccine business of profitable cows in the past completely lost momentum, and the in vitro diagnosis business as a stabilizer was unable to support the bottom. Under the dual pressure, the company lost its basic performance.</p><p>Specifically, the vaccine business was once the absolute core of Wantai Biological's performance. In 2022, the bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin contributed over 8.5 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for over 70% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin remained above 85% for a long time, becoming the core driving force for the company's rapid growth.</p><p>However, since 2023, the vaccine business took a sharp turn. In 2024, the revenue has plummeted to about 600 million yuan, and the decline has further intensified in 2025. During the reporting period, the revenue of the vaccine business was 457 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.63%, and the gross profit margin plummeted by more than 43 percentage points.</p><p>The collapse of the vaccine business is the result of the superposition of policy, market and product factors. At the policy level, since 2023, centralized procurement of HPV vaccines has been launched in many places across the country, and bivalent HPV vaccines have become the key target of centralized procurement. The winning bid price of Wantai Biotech Cecolin has plummeted from 329 yuan for a single dose to about 30 yuan, with a price reduction of over 90%. The cliff-like decline in prices has caused the gross profit margin of bivalent vaccines to plummet from more than 90% at its peak to less than 30% in 2025, and the profit of a single dose has almost returned to zero.</p><p>At the market level, the dual competitive pressure has significantly shrunk the demand for bivalent vaccines. On the one hand,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a></span><span></span>Waiting for domestic bivalent HPV vaccines to be launched one after another, participating in market competition at a lower price, further dividing the existing market, Wantai Biotech lost its price advantage; On the other hand, in 2023, the approved applicable age of imported nine-valent HPV vaccines will be expanded from 16-26 years old to 9-45 years old, covering the core target population of bivalent vaccines, and consumers will give priority to nine-valent vaccines with wider protection, resulting in a cliff-like decline in the market demand for bivalent vaccines.</p><p>Cecolin 9, the first nine-valent HPV vaccine made in China, which is regarded by the company as the hope of a comeback, has a commercialization performance far below expectations after being approved for listing in June 2025. In order to quickly seize the market, Cecolin 9 is priced at only 499 yuan/piece, which is imported<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>About 38% of the nine-valent vaccine, but the low-price strategy did not bring a sales outbreak. The company's annual vaccine business revenue was less than 500 million yuan, a record low, and the performance gap of bivalent vaccine is still difficult to make up.</p><p><div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/113/w630h283/20260423/7a27-af4cc76d68728ff33b2277a70da63f22.png\"/><span></span></div>At the same time, the domestic nine-valent vaccine track has become extremely crowded,<span>Recreation Guard</span><span></span>Domestic nine-valent vaccines such as Bowei Bio and Bowei Bio have entered the third phase of clinical trials and are expected to be launched one after another in 2026. In the future, Cecolin 9 will face the double encirclement and suppression of domestic competing products and imported products, making it difficult to break through the market.</p><p>In addition to HPV vaccines, the revenue scale of the company's traditional vaccines such as chickenpox and herpes zoster is less than 100 million yuan. Products under development such as 20-valent pneumonia and 11-valent HPV are still in the early clinical stage and are expected to be listed after 2030 to contribute revenue. The vaccine business has no new performance growth points in the short term, and there is no hope of warming up.</p><p>As a former performance stabilizer, the in vitro diagnostics business also performed sluggishly in 2025, failing to hedge the loss of the vaccine business. In 2025, Wantai Biotech's in vitro diagnostic business achieved revenue of 1.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.65%, and its gross profit margin decreased by 7.98 percentage points to 56.99% compared with 2024, with both revenue and profit decreasing.</p><p>　　<strong>Impairment, receivables and depreciation are heavy burdens for future operations</strong></p><p>At the same time as the core business collapsed, Wantai Bio also exposed multiple serious problems in asset operation and financial management. Risks such as cash flow pressure, inventory backlog, high accounts receivable, and idle asset impairment continued to ferment, which not only aggravated the losses in 2025, but also became a potential burden for 2026 and future operations.</p><p>Among them, inventory impairment has become an important factor devouring the company's profits, and the inventory pressure of vaccine products has not been fully released. At the end of 2025, the company's inventory balance decreased by 30.97% year-on-year to 21.6584 million units, but it was mainly the result of passive cleanup of bivalent HPV vaccine and large provision for impairment.</p><p>In 2025, the company's asset impairment loss reached 215 million yuan, almost all of which came from the impairment of inventory and contract assets, most of which were the impairment provision of bivalent HPV vaccine. This part of the impairment loss accounted for 54% of the company's current loss, which was an important driver of the company's turn from profit to loss.</p><p>By the end of 2025, the book value of the company's inventory goods after provision is 269 million yuan. If the subsequent market promotion of nine-valent HPV vaccine is less than expected, or the inventory clearing progress of bivalent HPV vaccine slows down, the company will still have the risk of continuous provision for asset impairment in the future, further squeezing profit margins.</p><p>In terms of accounts receivable, the company's accounts and bills receivable amounted to RMB1.625 billion at the end of 2025. From 2021 to 2025, the Company's accounts receivable turnover days were 92.26 days, 99.7 days, 226.37 days, 403.36 days and 361.92 days, respectively. Although it was shortened in 2025, it was still at a historically high level, and the capital turnover efficiency was not good.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset depreciation, in 2025, the company will invest 350 million yuan in fixed assets to expand the production of nine-valent HPV vaccine and update diagnostic equipment, and the balance of fixed assets will reach 2.87 billion yuan. However, the current capacity utilization rate of vaccine and diagnostic business is insufficient, a large number of fixed assets are idle, and the depreciation expenses of fixed assets will increase by 14.7% year-on-year to 263 million yuan.</p><p>Overall, Wantai Biotech's huge loss in 2025 is the result of the concentrated outbreak of multiple problems such as the loss of power in its core business, market response errors, and improper asset management and control. It once relied on a single vaccine product to create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">brilliant</a>The curtain had already ended. At present, problems such as commercialization of nine-valent vaccines and inventory resolution remain to be solved, and it remains to be seen whether the company can get rid of operating difficulties.</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information and accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP</div></div>Editor-in-Charge: Company Watch</p><p></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTriple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪证券</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-23 16:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>Look at stock trading<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">Golden Qilin</a>Analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities!</p><p>Once became famous in World War I with the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin and reached the top of A shares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000504\">biology</a>of the vaccine sector<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a></span><span></span>In 2025, it handed over its worst report card since going public. According to the annual report data, the company's annual operating income was 1.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.99%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was-398 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 474.89% year-on-year, and the first annual net loss in history. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net loss further expanded to 623 million yuan, and the weighted average return on net assets dropped to-3.30%.</p><p>Judging from the quarterly operating data, Wantai Bio's losses are increasing quarter by quarter, and the signal of operating stabilization has not appeared. In the first quarter, the company's loss was 52,776,900 yuan, the loss scale expanded to 91,435,400 yuan in the second quarter, and it briefly narrowed to 28,790,900 yuan in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the loss in a single quarter soared to 225 million yuan, exceeding the total loss in the first three quarters. At the same time, risks such as inventory backlog, reduced capital utilization rate, idle production capacity and asset impairment are concentrated, which not only greatly drags down the current profit, but also becomes a potential burden for subsequent operations.</p><p>　<strong>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets, two main businesses both lost</strong></p><p>The core reason for the huge loss of Wantai Biological's performance is that its two main businesses fell into recession at the same time. The vaccine business of profitable cows in the past completely lost momentum, and the in vitro diagnosis business as a stabilizer was unable to support the bottom. Under the dual pressure, the company lost its basic performance.</p><p>Specifically, the vaccine business was once the absolute core of Wantai Biological's performance. In 2022, the bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin contributed over 8.5 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for over 70% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin remained above 85% for a long time, becoming the core driving force for the company's rapid growth.</p><p>However, since 2023, the vaccine business took a sharp turn. In 2024, the revenue has plummeted to about 600 million yuan, and the decline has further intensified in 2025. During the reporting period, the revenue of the vaccine business was 457 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.63%, and the gross profit margin plummeted by more than 43 percentage points.</p><p>The collapse of the vaccine business is the result of the superposition of policy, market and product factors. At the policy level, since 2023, centralized procurement of HPV vaccines has been launched in many places across the country, and bivalent HPV vaccines have become the key target of centralized procurement. The winning bid price of Wantai Biotech Cecolin has plummeted from 329 yuan for a single dose to about 30 yuan, with a price reduction of over 90%. The cliff-like decline in prices has caused the gross profit margin of bivalent vaccines to plummet from more than 90% at its peak to less than 30% in 2025, and the profit of a single dose has almost returned to zero.</p><p>At the market level, the dual competitive pressure has significantly shrunk the demand for bivalent vaccines. On the one hand,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a></span><span></span>Waiting for domestic bivalent HPV vaccines to be launched one after another, participating in market competition at a lower price, further dividing the existing market, Wantai Biotech lost its price advantage; On the other hand, in 2023, the approved applicable age of imported nine-valent HPV vaccines will be expanded from 16-26 years old to 9-45 years old, covering the core target population of bivalent vaccines, and consumers will give priority to nine-valent vaccines with wider protection, resulting in a cliff-like decline in the market demand for bivalent vaccines.</p><p>Cecolin 9, the first nine-valent HPV vaccine made in China, which is regarded by the company as the hope of a comeback, has a commercialization performance far below expectations after being approved for listing in June 2025. In order to quickly seize the market, Cecolin 9 is priced at only 499 yuan/piece, which is imported<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>About 38% of the nine-valent vaccine, but the low-price strategy did not bring a sales outbreak. The company's annual vaccine business revenue was less than 500 million yuan, a record low, and the performance gap of bivalent vaccine is still difficult to make up.</p><p><div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/113/w630h283/20260423/7a27-af4cc76d68728ff33b2277a70da63f22.png\"/><span></span></div>At the same time, the domestic nine-valent vaccine track has become extremely crowded,<span>Recreation Guard</span><span></span>Domestic nine-valent vaccines such as Bowei Bio and Bowei Bio have entered the third phase of clinical trials and are expected to be launched one after another in 2026. In the future, Cecolin 9 will face the double encirclement and suppression of domestic competing products and imported products, making it difficult to break through the market.</p><p>In addition to HPV vaccines, the revenue scale of the company's traditional vaccines such as chickenpox and herpes zoster is less than 100 million yuan. Products under development such as 20-valent pneumonia and 11-valent HPV are still in the early clinical stage and are expected to be listed after 2030 to contribute revenue. The vaccine business has no new performance growth points in the short term, and there is no hope of warming up.</p><p>As a former performance stabilizer, the in vitro diagnostics business also performed sluggishly in 2025, failing to hedge the loss of the vaccine business. In 2025, Wantai Biotech's in vitro diagnostic business achieved revenue of 1.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.65%, and its gross profit margin decreased by 7.98 percentage points to 56.99% compared with 2024, with both revenue and profit decreasing.</p><p>　　<strong>Impairment, receivables and depreciation are heavy burdens for future operations</strong></p><p>At the same time as the core business collapsed, Wantai Bio also exposed multiple serious problems in asset operation and financial management. Risks such as cash flow pressure, inventory backlog, high accounts receivable, and idle asset impairment continued to ferment, which not only aggravated the losses in 2025, but also became a potential burden for 2026 and future operations.</p><p>Among them, inventory impairment has become an important factor devouring the company's profits, and the inventory pressure of vaccine products has not been fully released. At the end of 2025, the company's inventory balance decreased by 30.97% year-on-year to 21.6584 million units, but it was mainly the result of passive cleanup of bivalent HPV vaccine and large provision for impairment.</p><p>In 2025, the company's asset impairment loss reached 215 million yuan, almost all of which came from the impairment of inventory and contract assets, most of which were the impairment provision of bivalent HPV vaccine. This part of the impairment loss accounted for 54% of the company's current loss, which was an important driver of the company's turn from profit to loss.</p><p>By the end of 2025, the book value of the company's inventory goods after provision is 269 million yuan. If the subsequent market promotion of nine-valent HPV vaccine is less than expected, or the inventory clearing progress of bivalent HPV vaccine slows down, the company will still have the risk of continuous provision for asset impairment in the future, further squeezing profit margins.</p><p>In terms of accounts receivable, the company's accounts and bills receivable amounted to RMB1.625 billion at the end of 2025. From 2021 to 2025, the Company's accounts receivable turnover days were 92.26 days, 99.7 days, 226.37 days, 403.36 days and 361.92 days, respectively. Although it was shortened in 2025, it was still at a historically high level, and the capital turnover efficiency was not good.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset depreciation, in 2025, the company will invest 350 million yuan in fixed assets to expand the production of nine-valent HPV vaccine and update diagnostic equipment, and the balance of fixed assets will reach 2.87 billion yuan. However, the current capacity utilization rate of vaccine and diagnostic business is insufficient, a large number of fixed assets are idle, and the depreciation expenses of fixed assets will increase by 14.7% year-on-year to 263 million yuan.</p><p>Overall, Wantai Biotech's huge loss in 2025 is the result of the concentrated outbreak of multiple problems such as the loss of power in its core business, market response errors, and improper asset management and control. It once relied on a single vaccine product to create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">brilliant</a>The curtain had already ended. At present, problems such as commercialization of nine-valent vaccines and inventory resolution remain to be solved, and it remains to be seen whether the company can get rid of operating difficulties.</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information and accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP</div></div>Editor-in-Charge: Company Watch</p><p></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/observe/2026-04-23/doc-inhvnnxa8699316.shtml\">新浪证券</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"603392":"万泰生物","BK1589":"北水核心资产","LU1981816686.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN MULTI FACTOR EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IPOS":"Renaissance International IPO ETF","BK1200":"软饮料","BK0239":"医药制造","09633":"农夫山泉"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/observe/2026-04-23/doc-inhvnnxa8699316.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2629886124","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　曾凭借国产二价HPV疫苗馨可宁一战成名，登顶A股生物疫苗板块的万泰生物在2025年交出了上市以来最差成绩单。年报数据显示，公司全年实现营业收入18.19亿元，同比下降18.99%；归母净利润-3.98亿元，同比大幅下滑474.89%，历史首次出现年度净亏损。扣除非经常性损益后净亏损进一步扩大至6.23亿元，加权平均净资产收益率跌至-3.30%。\n　　从季度经营数据来看，万泰生物的亏损呈现逐季加剧态势，经营企稳信号迟迟未现。一季度公司亏损5277.69万元，二季度亏损规模扩大至9143.54万元，三季度短暂收窄至2879.09万元，四季度单季亏损却飙升至2.25亿元，单季度亏损额超过前三季度亏损总和。与此同时，库存积压、资金使用率降低、产能闲置、资产减值等风险集中显现，不仅大幅拖累当期利润，更成为后续经营的潜在包袱。\n　　产品、政策、市场三重挤压 两大主营业务双双失守\n　　万泰生物业绩巨亏的核心原因，是两大主营业务同时陷入衰退，昔日利润奶牛的疫苗业务彻底失势，而作为稳定器的体外诊断业务亦无力托底，双重压力下公司失去业绩基本盘。\n　　具体而言，疫苗业务曾是万泰生物绝对的业绩核心，2022年凭借二价HPV疫苗馨可宁贡献超85亿元营收，占总营收比重超70%，毛利率长期维持在85%以上，成为公司高速增长的核心动力。\n　　但从2023年开始，疫苗业务急转直下，2024年营收已暴跌至6亿元左右，2025年颓势进一步加剧，报告期内疫苗业务营收4.57亿元，同比下滑24.63%，毛利率更是暴跌超43个百分点。\n　　疫苗业务的溃败，是政策、市场、产品三重因素叠加的结果。政策层面，2023年起全国多地启动HPV疫苗集中带量采购，二价HPV疫苗成为集采重点对象，万泰生物馨可宁中标价格从单支329元暴跌至30元左右，降价幅度超90%。价格的断崖式下跌导致二价疫苗毛利率从巅峰时期的90%以上，暴跌至2025年的不足30%，单支利润几乎归零。\n　　市场层面，双重竞争压力让二价疫苗需求显著萎缩。一方面，沃森生物等国产二价HPV疫苗陆续上市，以更低价格参与市场竞争，进一步瓜分存量市场，万泰生物失去价格优势；另一方面，2023年进口九价HPV疫苗获批适用年龄从16-26岁扩至9-45岁，覆盖二价疫苗核心目标人群，消费者优先选择防护范围更广的九价疫苗，导致二价疫苗市场需求出现断崖式下滑。\n　　而被公司视为翻盘希望的国产首款九价HPV疫苗馨可宁9，2025年6月获批上市后商业化表现远不及预期。为快速抢占市场，馨可宁9定价仅499元/支，为进口默沙东九价疫苗的约38%，但低价策略并未带来销量爆发，公司全年疫苗业务收入不足5亿元，创历史新低，二价疫苗的业绩缺口仍难以弥补。\n\n　　与此同时，国产九价疫苗赛道已变得极度拥挤，康乐卫士、博唯生物等国产九价疫苗已进入临床三期，预计2026年陆续上市，未来馨可宁9将面临国产竞品与进口产品的双重围剿，市场突围难度较大。\n　　除HPV疫苗外，公司水痘、带状疱疹等传统疫苗营收规模不足亿元，20价肺炎、十一价HPV等在研产品尚处临床早期，预计2030年后才能上市贡献营收，疫苗业务短期内无新的业绩增长点，转暖无望。\n　　作为曾经的业绩稳定器，体外诊断业务在2025年同样表现低迷，未能对冲疫苗业务的亏损。2025年，万泰生物体外诊断业务实现营收13.08亿元，同比下降18.65%，毛利率较2024年下滑7.98个百分点至56.99%，营收与盈利双降。\n　　减值、应收、折旧三座大山 未来经营包袱沉重\n　　在核心业务溃败的同时，万泰生物在资产运营与财务管理层面同样暴露出多重严重问题，现金流承压、库存积压、应收账款高企、资产闲置减值等风险持续发酵，不仅加剧了2025年的亏损，更成为2026年及未来经营的潜在包袱。\n　　其中，存货减值成为吞噬公司利润的重要因素，疫苗产品的库存压力尚未完全释放。2025年末公司存货余额同比下降30.97%至2165.84万支，但主要是二价HPV疫苗被动清理与大额计提减值的结果。\n　　2025年公司资产减值损失达2.15亿元，几乎全部来自存货与合同资产减值，其中绝大部分为二价HPV疫苗的减值计提，该部分减值损失占公司当期亏损额的54%，是导致公司由盈转亏的重要推手。\n　　截至2025年末，公司计提后库存商品账面价值为2.69亿元，若后续九价HPV疫苗市场推广不及预期，或二价HPV疫苗库存清理进度放缓，公司未来仍存在持续计提资产减值的风险，进一步挤压利润空间。\n　　应收账款方面，2025年末公司应收账款及票据为16.25亿元。2021年-2025年，公司应收账款周转天数分别为92.26天、99.7天、226.37天、403.36天、361.92天，2025年虽有所缩短但仍处于历史高位，资金周转效率欠佳。\n　　固定资产折旧方面，2025年公司为九价HPV疫苗扩产、诊断设备更新，新增固定资产投资3.5亿元，固定资产余额达28.7亿元，但当前疫苗、诊断业务产能利用率不足，大量固定资产闲置，固定资产折旧费用同比增长14.7%至2.63亿元。\n　　整体来看，万泰生物2025年的巨亏是核心业务失势、市场应对失误、资产管控失当等多重问题集中爆发的结果，曾经依靠单一疫苗产品缔造的辉煌已然落幕。眼下，九价疫苗商业化、化解库存等问题仍待解决，公司能否摆脱经营困境仍有待观察。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：公司观察","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"603392":1.5,"09633":1.5,"IPOS":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":556674572906904,"gmtCreate":1776933780176,"gmtModify":1776933783005,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/556674572906904","repostId":"2629886124","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629886124","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776932700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2629886124?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-23 16:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629886124","media":"新浪证券","summary":"　　曾凭借国产二价HPV疫苗馨可宁一战成名，登顶A股生物疫苗板块的万泰生物在2025年交出了上市以来最差成绩单。年报数据显示，公司全年实现营业收入18.19亿元，同比下降18.99%；归母净利润-3.98亿元，同比大幅下滑474.89%，历史首次出现年度净亏损。扣除非经常性损益后净亏损进一步扩大至6.23亿元，加权平均净资产收益率跌至-3.30%。　　从季度经营数据来看，万泰生物的亏损呈现逐季加剧态势，经营企稳信号迟迟未现。","content":"<p><html><body><div>Look at stock trading<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">Golden Qilin</a>Analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities!</p><p>Once became famous in World War I with the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin and reached the top of A shares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000504\">biology</a>of the vaccine sector<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a></span><span></span>In 2025, it handed over its worst report card since going public. According to the annual report data, the company's annual operating income was 1.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.99%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was-398 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 474.89% year-on-year, and the first annual net loss in history. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net loss further expanded to 623 million yuan, and the weighted average return on net assets dropped to-3.30%.</p><p>Judging from the quarterly operating data, Wantai Bio's losses are increasing quarter by quarter, and the signal of operating stabilization has not appeared. In the first quarter, the company's loss was 52,776,900 yuan, the loss scale expanded to 91,435,400 yuan in the second quarter, and it briefly narrowed to 28,790,900 yuan in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the loss in a single quarter soared to 225 million yuan, exceeding the total loss in the first three quarters. At the same time, risks such as inventory backlog, reduced capital utilization rate, idle production capacity and asset impairment are concentrated, which not only greatly drags down the current profit, but also becomes a potential burden for subsequent operations.</p><p>　<strong>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets, two main businesses both lost</strong></p><p>The core reason for the huge loss of Wantai Biological's performance is that its two main businesses fell into recession at the same time. The vaccine business of profitable cows in the past completely lost momentum, and the in vitro diagnosis business as a stabilizer was unable to support the bottom. Under the dual pressure, the company lost its basic performance.</p><p>Specifically, the vaccine business was once the absolute core of Wantai Biological's performance. In 2022, the bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin contributed over 8.5 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for over 70% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin remained above 85% for a long time, becoming the core driving force for the company's rapid growth.</p><p>However, since 2023, the vaccine business took a sharp turn. In 2024, the revenue has plummeted to about 600 million yuan, and the decline has further intensified in 2025. During the reporting period, the revenue of the vaccine business was 457 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.63%, and the gross profit margin plummeted by more than 43 percentage points.</p><p>The collapse of the vaccine business is the result of the superposition of policy, market and product factors. At the policy level, since 2023, centralized procurement of HPV vaccines has been launched in many places across the country, and bivalent HPV vaccines have become the key target of centralized procurement. The winning bid price of Wantai Biotech Cecolin has plummeted from 329 yuan for a single dose to about 30 yuan, with a price reduction of over 90%. The cliff-like decline in prices has caused the gross profit margin of bivalent vaccines to plummet from more than 90% at its peak to less than 30% in 2025, and the profit of a single dose has almost returned to zero.</p><p>At the market level, the dual competitive pressure has significantly shrunk the demand for bivalent vaccines. On the one hand,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a></span><span></span>Waiting for domestic bivalent HPV vaccines to be launched one after another, participating in market competition at a lower price, further dividing the existing market, Wantai Biotech lost its price advantage; On the other hand, in 2023, the approved applicable age of imported nine-valent HPV vaccines will be expanded from 16-26 years old to 9-45 years old, covering the core target population of bivalent vaccines, and consumers will give priority to nine-valent vaccines with wider protection, resulting in a cliff-like decline in the market demand for bivalent vaccines.</p><p>Cecolin 9, the first nine-valent HPV vaccine made in China, which is regarded by the company as the hope of a comeback, has a commercialization performance far below expectations after being approved for listing in June 2025. In order to quickly seize the market, Cecolin 9 is priced at only 499 yuan/piece, which is imported<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>About 38% of the nine-valent vaccine, but the low-price strategy did not bring a sales outbreak. The company's annual vaccine business revenue was less than 500 million yuan, a record low, and the performance gap of bivalent vaccine is still difficult to make up.</p><p><div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/113/w630h283/20260423/7a27-af4cc76d68728ff33b2277a70da63f22.png\"/><span></span></div>At the same time, the domestic nine-valent vaccine track has become extremely crowded,<span>Recreation Guard</span><span></span>Domestic nine-valent vaccines such as Bowei Bio and Bowei Bio have entered the third phase of clinical trials and are expected to be launched one after another in 2026. In the future, Cecolin 9 will face the double encirclement and suppression of domestic competing products and imported products, making it difficult to break through the market.</p><p>In addition to HPV vaccines, the revenue scale of the company's traditional vaccines such as chickenpox and herpes zoster is less than 100 million yuan. Products under development such as 20-valent pneumonia and 11-valent HPV are still in the early clinical stage and are expected to be listed after 2030 to contribute revenue. The vaccine business has no new performance growth points in the short term, and there is no hope of warming up.</p><p>As a former performance stabilizer, the in vitro diagnostics business also performed sluggishly in 2025, failing to hedge the loss of the vaccine business. In 2025, Wantai Biotech's in vitro diagnostic business achieved revenue of 1.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.65%, and its gross profit margin decreased by 7.98 percentage points to 56.99% compared with 2024, with both revenue and profit decreasing.</p><p>　　<strong>Impairment, receivables and depreciation are heavy burdens for future operations</strong></p><p>At the same time as the core business collapsed, Wantai Bio also exposed multiple serious problems in asset operation and financial management. Risks such as cash flow pressure, inventory backlog, high accounts receivable, and idle asset impairment continued to ferment, which not only aggravated the losses in 2025, but also became a potential burden for 2026 and future operations.</p><p>Among them, inventory impairment has become an important factor devouring the company's profits, and the inventory pressure of vaccine products has not been fully released. At the end of 2025, the company's inventory balance decreased by 30.97% year-on-year to 21.6584 million units, but it was mainly the result of passive cleanup of bivalent HPV vaccine and large provision for impairment.</p><p>In 2025, the company's asset impairment loss reached 215 million yuan, almost all of which came from the impairment of inventory and contract assets, most of which were the impairment provision of bivalent HPV vaccine. This part of the impairment loss accounted for 54% of the company's current loss, which was an important driver of the company's turn from profit to loss.</p><p>By the end of 2025, the book value of the company's inventory goods after provision is 269 million yuan. If the subsequent market promotion of nine-valent HPV vaccine is less than expected, or the inventory clearing progress of bivalent HPV vaccine slows down, the company will still have the risk of continuous provision for asset impairment in the future, further squeezing profit margins.</p><p>In terms of accounts receivable, the company's accounts and bills receivable amounted to RMB1.625 billion at the end of 2025. From 2021 to 2025, the Company's accounts receivable turnover days were 92.26 days, 99.7 days, 226.37 days, 403.36 days and 361.92 days, respectively. Although it was shortened in 2025, it was still at a historically high level, and the capital turnover efficiency was not good.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset depreciation, in 2025, the company will invest 350 million yuan in fixed assets to expand the production of nine-valent HPV vaccine and update diagnostic equipment, and the balance of fixed assets will reach 2.87 billion yuan. However, the current capacity utilization rate of vaccine and diagnostic business is insufficient, a large number of fixed assets are idle, and the depreciation expenses of fixed assets will increase by 14.7% year-on-year to 263 million yuan.</p><p>Overall, Wantai Biotech's huge loss in 2025 is the result of the concentrated outbreak of multiple problems such as the loss of power in its core business, market response errors, and improper asset management and control. It once relied on a single vaccine product to create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">brilliant</a>The curtain had already ended. At present, problems such as commercialization of nine-valent vaccines and inventory resolution remain to be solved, and it remains to be seen whether the company can get rid of operating difficulties.</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information and accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP</div></div>Editor-in-Charge: Company Watch</p><p></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTriple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪证券</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-23 16:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>Look at stock trading<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">Golden Qilin</a>Analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities!</p><p>Once became famous in World War I with the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin and reached the top of A shares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000504\">biology</a>of the vaccine sector<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a></span><span></span>In 2025, it handed over its worst report card since going public. According to the annual report data, the company's annual operating income was 1.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.99%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was-398 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 474.89% year-on-year, and the first annual net loss in history. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net loss further expanded to 623 million yuan, and the weighted average return on net assets dropped to-3.30%.</p><p>Judging from the quarterly operating data, Wantai Bio's losses are increasing quarter by quarter, and the signal of operating stabilization has not appeared. In the first quarter, the company's loss was 52,776,900 yuan, the loss scale expanded to 91,435,400 yuan in the second quarter, and it briefly narrowed to 28,790,900 yuan in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the loss in a single quarter soared to 225 million yuan, exceeding the total loss in the first three quarters. At the same time, risks such as inventory backlog, reduced capital utilization rate, idle production capacity and asset impairment are concentrated, which not only greatly drags down the current profit, but also becomes a potential burden for subsequent operations.</p><p>　<strong>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets, two main businesses both lost</strong></p><p>The core reason for the huge loss of Wantai Biological's performance is that its two main businesses fell into recession at the same time. The vaccine business of profitable cows in the past completely lost momentum, and the in vitro diagnosis business as a stabilizer was unable to support the bottom. Under the dual pressure, the company lost its basic performance.</p><p>Specifically, the vaccine business was once the absolute core of Wantai Biological's performance. In 2022, the bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin contributed over 8.5 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for over 70% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin remained above 85% for a long time, becoming the core driving force for the company's rapid growth.</p><p>However, since 2023, the vaccine business took a sharp turn. In 2024, the revenue has plummeted to about 600 million yuan, and the decline has further intensified in 2025. During the reporting period, the revenue of the vaccine business was 457 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.63%, and the gross profit margin plummeted by more than 43 percentage points.</p><p>The collapse of the vaccine business is the result of the superposition of policy, market and product factors. At the policy level, since 2023, centralized procurement of HPV vaccines has been launched in many places across the country, and bivalent HPV vaccines have become the key target of centralized procurement. The winning bid price of Wantai Biotech Cecolin has plummeted from 329 yuan for a single dose to about 30 yuan, with a price reduction of over 90%. The cliff-like decline in prices has caused the gross profit margin of bivalent vaccines to plummet from more than 90% at its peak to less than 30% in 2025, and the profit of a single dose has almost returned to zero.</p><p>At the market level, the dual competitive pressure has significantly shrunk the demand for bivalent vaccines. On the one hand,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a></span><span></span>Waiting for domestic bivalent HPV vaccines to be launched one after another, participating in market competition at a lower price, further dividing the existing market, Wantai Biotech lost its price advantage; On the other hand, in 2023, the approved applicable age of imported nine-valent HPV vaccines will be expanded from 16-26 years old to 9-45 years old, covering the core target population of bivalent vaccines, and consumers will give priority to nine-valent vaccines with wider protection, resulting in a cliff-like decline in the market demand for bivalent vaccines.</p><p>Cecolin 9, the first nine-valent HPV vaccine made in China, which is regarded by the company as the hope of a comeback, has a commercialization performance far below expectations after being approved for listing in June 2025. In order to quickly seize the market, Cecolin 9 is priced at only 499 yuan/piece, which is imported<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>About 38% of the nine-valent vaccine, but the low-price strategy did not bring a sales outbreak. The company's annual vaccine business revenue was less than 500 million yuan, a record low, and the performance gap of bivalent vaccine is still difficult to make up.</p><p><div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/113/w630h283/20260423/7a27-af4cc76d68728ff33b2277a70da63f22.png\"/><span></span></div>At the same time, the domestic nine-valent vaccine track has become extremely crowded,<span>Recreation Guard</span><span></span>Domestic nine-valent vaccines such as Bowei Bio and Bowei Bio have entered the third phase of clinical trials and are expected to be launched one after another in 2026. In the future, Cecolin 9 will face the double encirclement and suppression of domestic competing products and imported products, making it difficult to break through the market.</p><p>In addition to HPV vaccines, the revenue scale of the company's traditional vaccines such as chickenpox and herpes zoster is less than 100 million yuan. Products under development such as 20-valent pneumonia and 11-valent HPV are still in the early clinical stage and are expected to be listed after 2030 to contribute revenue. The vaccine business has no new performance growth points in the short term, and there is no hope of warming up.</p><p>As a former performance stabilizer, the in vitro diagnostics business also performed sluggishly in 2025, failing to hedge the loss of the vaccine business. In 2025, Wantai Biotech's in vitro diagnostic business achieved revenue of 1.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.65%, and its gross profit margin decreased by 7.98 percentage points to 56.99% compared with 2024, with both revenue and profit decreasing.</p><p>　　<strong>Impairment, receivables and depreciation are heavy burdens for future operations</strong></p><p>At the same time as the core business collapsed, Wantai Bio also exposed multiple serious problems in asset operation and financial management. Risks such as cash flow pressure, inventory backlog, high accounts receivable, and idle asset impairment continued to ferment, which not only aggravated the losses in 2025, but also became a potential burden for 2026 and future operations.</p><p>Among them, inventory impairment has become an important factor devouring the company's profits, and the inventory pressure of vaccine products has not been fully released. At the end of 2025, the company's inventory balance decreased by 30.97% year-on-year to 21.6584 million units, but it was mainly the result of passive cleanup of bivalent HPV vaccine and large provision for impairment.</p><p>In 2025, the company's asset impairment loss reached 215 million yuan, almost all of which came from the impairment of inventory and contract assets, most of which were the impairment provision of bivalent HPV vaccine. This part of the impairment loss accounted for 54% of the company's current loss, which was an important driver of the company's turn from profit to loss.</p><p>By the end of 2025, the book value of the company's inventory goods after provision is 269 million yuan. If the subsequent market promotion of nine-valent HPV vaccine is less than expected, or the inventory clearing progress of bivalent HPV vaccine slows down, the company will still have the risk of continuous provision for asset impairment in the future, further squeezing profit margins.</p><p>In terms of accounts receivable, the company's accounts and bills receivable amounted to RMB1.625 billion at the end of 2025. From 2021 to 2025, the Company's accounts receivable turnover days were 92.26 days, 99.7 days, 226.37 days, 403.36 days and 361.92 days, respectively. Although it was shortened in 2025, it was still at a historically high level, and the capital turnover efficiency was not good.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset depreciation, in 2025, the company will invest 350 million yuan in fixed assets to expand the production of nine-valent HPV vaccine and update diagnostic equipment, and the balance of fixed assets will reach 2.87 billion yuan. However, the current capacity utilization rate of vaccine and diagnostic business is insufficient, a large number of fixed assets are idle, and the depreciation expenses of fixed assets will increase by 14.7% year-on-year to 263 million yuan.</p><p>Overall, Wantai Biotech's huge loss in 2025 is the result of the concentrated outbreak of multiple problems such as the loss of power in its core business, market response errors, and improper asset management and control. It once relied on a single vaccine product to create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">brilliant</a>The curtain had already ended. At present, problems such as commercialization of nine-valent vaccines and inventory resolution remain to be solved, and it remains to be seen whether the company can get rid of operating difficulties.</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information and accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP</div></div>Editor-in-Charge: Company Watch</p><p></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/observe/2026-04-23/doc-inhvnnxa8699316.shtml\">新浪证券</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"603392":"万泰生物","BK1589":"北水核心资产","LU1981816686.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN MULTI FACTOR EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IPOS":"Renaissance International IPO ETF","BK1200":"软饮料","BK0239":"医药制造","09633":"农夫山泉"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/observe/2026-04-23/doc-inhvnnxa8699316.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2629886124","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　曾凭借国产二价HPV疫苗馨可宁一战成名，登顶A股生物疫苗板块的万泰生物在2025年交出了上市以来最差成绩单。年报数据显示，公司全年实现营业收入18.19亿元，同比下降18.99%；归母净利润-3.98亿元，同比大幅下滑474.89%，历史首次出现年度净亏损。扣除非经常性损益后净亏损进一步扩大至6.23亿元，加权平均净资产收益率跌至-3.30%。\n　　从季度经营数据来看，万泰生物的亏损呈现逐季加剧态势，经营企稳信号迟迟未现。一季度公司亏损5277.69万元，二季度亏损规模扩大至9143.54万元，三季度短暂收窄至2879.09万元，四季度单季亏损却飙升至2.25亿元，单季度亏损额超过前三季度亏损总和。与此同时，库存积压、资金使用率降低、产能闲置、资产减值等风险集中显现，不仅大幅拖累当期利润，更成为后续经营的潜在包袱。\n　　产品、政策、市场三重挤压 两大主营业务双双失守\n　　万泰生物业绩巨亏的核心原因，是两大主营业务同时陷入衰退，昔日利润奶牛的疫苗业务彻底失势，而作为稳定器的体外诊断业务亦无力托底，双重压力下公司失去业绩基本盘。\n　　具体而言，疫苗业务曾是万泰生物绝对的业绩核心，2022年凭借二价HPV疫苗馨可宁贡献超85亿元营收，占总营收比重超70%，毛利率长期维持在85%以上，成为公司高速增长的核心动力。\n　　但从2023年开始，疫苗业务急转直下，2024年营收已暴跌至6亿元左右，2025年颓势进一步加剧，报告期内疫苗业务营收4.57亿元，同比下滑24.63%，毛利率更是暴跌超43个百分点。\n　　疫苗业务的溃败，是政策、市场、产品三重因素叠加的结果。政策层面，2023年起全国多地启动HPV疫苗集中带量采购，二价HPV疫苗成为集采重点对象，万泰生物馨可宁中标价格从单支329元暴跌至30元左右，降价幅度超90%。价格的断崖式下跌导致二价疫苗毛利率从巅峰时期的90%以上，暴跌至2025年的不足30%，单支利润几乎归零。\n　　市场层面，双重竞争压力让二价疫苗需求显著萎缩。一方面，沃森生物等国产二价HPV疫苗陆续上市，以更低价格参与市场竞争，进一步瓜分存量市场，万泰生物失去价格优势；另一方面，2023年进口九价HPV疫苗获批适用年龄从16-26岁扩至9-45岁，覆盖二价疫苗核心目标人群，消费者优先选择防护范围更广的九价疫苗，导致二价疫苗市场需求出现断崖式下滑。\n　　而被公司视为翻盘希望的国产首款九价HPV疫苗馨可宁9，2025年6月获批上市后商业化表现远不及预期。为快速抢占市场，馨可宁9定价仅499元/支，为进口默沙东九价疫苗的约38%，但低价策略并未带来销量爆发，公司全年疫苗业务收入不足5亿元，创历史新低，二价疫苗的业绩缺口仍难以弥补。\n\n　　与此同时，国产九价疫苗赛道已变得极度拥挤，康乐卫士、博唯生物等国产九价疫苗已进入临床三期，预计2026年陆续上市，未来馨可宁9将面临国产竞品与进口产品的双重围剿，市场突围难度较大。\n　　除HPV疫苗外，公司水痘、带状疱疹等传统疫苗营收规模不足亿元，20价肺炎、十一价HPV等在研产品尚处临床早期，预计2030年后才能上市贡献营收，疫苗业务短期内无新的业绩增长点，转暖无望。\n　　作为曾经的业绩稳定器，体外诊断业务在2025年同样表现低迷，未能对冲疫苗业务的亏损。2025年，万泰生物体外诊断业务实现营收13.08亿元，同比下降18.65%，毛利率较2024年下滑7.98个百分点至56.99%，营收与盈利双降。\n　　减值、应收、折旧三座大山 未来经营包袱沉重\n　　在核心业务溃败的同时，万泰生物在资产运营与财务管理层面同样暴露出多重严重问题，现金流承压、库存积压、应收账款高企、资产闲置减值等风险持续发酵，不仅加剧了2025年的亏损，更成为2026年及未来经营的潜在包袱。\n　　其中，存货减值成为吞噬公司利润的重要因素，疫苗产品的库存压力尚未完全释放。2025年末公司存货余额同比下降30.97%至2165.84万支，但主要是二价HPV疫苗被动清理与大额计提减值的结果。\n　　2025年公司资产减值损失达2.15亿元，几乎全部来自存货与合同资产减值，其中绝大部分为二价HPV疫苗的减值计提，该部分减值损失占公司当期亏损额的54%，是导致公司由盈转亏的重要推手。\n　　截至2025年末，公司计提后库存商品账面价值为2.69亿元，若后续九价HPV疫苗市场推广不及预期，或二价HPV疫苗库存清理进度放缓，公司未来仍存在持续计提资产减值的风险，进一步挤压利润空间。\n　　应收账款方面，2025年末公司应收账款及票据为16.25亿元。2021年-2025年，公司应收账款周转天数分别为92.26天、99.7天、226.37天、403.36天、361.92天，2025年虽有所缩短但仍处于历史高位，资金周转效率欠佳。\n　　固定资产折旧方面，2025年公司为九价HPV疫苗扩产、诊断设备更新，新增固定资产投资3.5亿元，固定资产余额达28.7亿元，但当前疫苗、诊断业务产能利用率不足，大量固定资产闲置，固定资产折旧费用同比增长14.7%至2.63亿元。\n　　整体来看，万泰生物2025年的巨亏是核心业务失势、市场应对失误、资产管控失当等多重问题集中爆发的结果，曾经依靠单一疫苗产品缔造的辉煌已然落幕。眼下，九价疫苗商业化、化解库存等问题仍待解决，公司能否摆脱经营困境仍有待观察。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：公司观察","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"603392":1.5,"09633":1.5,"IPOS":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":556673328955512,"gmtCreate":1776933569013,"gmtModify":1776933572452,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"xuexi","listText":"xuexi","text":"xuexi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/556673328955512","repostId":"2629885438","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629885438","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"路透中文","home_visible":1,"media_name":"路透中文","id":"1098195322","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1776931980,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2629885438?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-23 16:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"BUZZ-Brokerage Opinion: Tesla Spending Surges, Earnings Cashout Period Pushed Back, Analysts Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629885438","media":"路透中文","summary":"** 摩根士丹利 表示，虽然特斯拉的巨额投资对确保其在自动驾驶领域的长期领先地位至关重要，但关键物理人工智能项目的支出增加和验证驱动的推出可能会减缓进展，并限制近期的上行空间。由于自动化翻译可能有误，或未能包含所需语境，路透不保证自动化翻译文本的准确性，仅是为了便利读者而提供自动化翻译。对于因为使用自动化翻译功能而造成的任何损害或损失，路透不承担任何责任。","content":"<p><html xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\"><head><title>Buzz-Brokerage Opinion: Analysts Says,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Earnings Cashout Period Pushed Back as Expenses Surge</title></head><body><span>April 23</span><span>-</span>** Tesla<span>TSLA.O</span>Significantly increased the full-year spending plan (<span>link</span>), reaching more than $25 billion, and CEO Elon Musk has invested money in artificial intelligence,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>And chips-he said these moves are \"very reasonable\" and help build a huge future revenue stream.</p><p>** Shares fell 1.8% to $380.52 premarket</p><p>Work Progress</p><p>** Katherine, Research Director, XTB-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>Kathleen Brooks said that while robotaxis are expected to drive Tesla's future revenue growth, Tesla still relies heavily on its electric vehicle business, and \"this is where Tesla's weakness lies\".</p><p>**<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>(\"equal weight,\" price target: $415) said that while Tesla's hefty investment is critical to securing its long-term leadership in autonomous driving, increased spending on key physical AI projects and validation-driven rollouts could slow progress and limit near-term upside.</p><p>** TD Cowen (\"Buy\", price target: $490) said the company's results set the stage for a gradual improvement in sentiment throughout the year as the company entered a period of major catalysts for robots and autonomous vehicles.</p><p>** Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: \"While progress is being made, last night's comments are another example of a further deviation from the target\".</p><p>(For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of the automated translated text because the automated translation may be incorrect or fail to include the required context, and provides automated translation only for the convenience of readers. Reuters accepts no responsibility for any damage or loss caused by the use of the automated translation function.)</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BUZZ-Brokerage Opinion: Tesla Spending Surges, Earnings Cashout Period Pushed Back, Analysts Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBUZZ-Brokerage Opinion: Tesla Spending Surges, Earnings Cashout Period Pushed Back, Analysts Says\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1098195322\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">路透中文 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-23 16:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\"><head><title>Buzz-Brokerage Opinion: Analysts Says,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Earnings Cashout Period Pushed Back as Expenses Surge</title></head><body><span>April 23</span><span>-</span>** Tesla<span>TSLA.O</span>Significantly increased the full-year spending plan (<span>link</span>), reaching more than $25 billion, and CEO Elon Musk has invested money in artificial intelligence,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>And chips-he said these moves are \"very reasonable\" and help build a huge future revenue stream.</p><p>** Shares fell 1.8% to $380.52 premarket</p><p>Work Progress</p><p>** Katherine, Research Director, XTB-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>Kathleen Brooks said that while robotaxis are expected to drive Tesla's future revenue growth, Tesla still relies heavily on its electric vehicle business, and \"this is where Tesla's weakness lies\".</p><p>**<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>(\"equal weight,\" price target: $415) said that while Tesla's hefty investment is critical to securing its long-term leadership in autonomous driving, increased spending on key physical AI projects and validation-driven rollouts could slow progress and limit near-term upside.</p><p>** TD Cowen (\"Buy\", price target: $490) said the company's results set the stage for a gradual improvement in sentiment throughout the year as the company entered a period of major catalysts for robots and autonomous vehicles.</p><p>** Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: \"While progress is being made, last night's comments are another example of a further deviation from the target\".</p><p>(For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of the automated translated text because the automated translation may be incorrect or fail to include the required context, and provides automated translation only for the convenience of readers. Reuters accepts no responsibility for any damage or loss caused by the use of the automated translation function.)</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4612":"AI芯片","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS 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change a week before the financial report was released. Cook retired and Ternus took over. The time node itself was regarded as a \"silent notice\" of strong performance by Wall Street. Analysts generally believe that Cook's long tenure in office and choosing to finish with a highlight moment is in line with his usual style of conduct.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company chose to announce the CEO change a week before the quarterly financial report was released. This time node has aroused widespread concern from Wall Street analysts. Many parties believe that this move implies that the company is about to hand over a bright report card.</p><p>Apple announced Monday that current CEO Tim Cook will be transferred to executive chairman, and John Ternus, senior vice president and head of hardware engineering, will officially take over as CEO on September 1st. The company will release its fiscal second-quarter results on April 30.</p><p>\"My gut tells me,\" Ben Reitzes, head of technology research at Melius Research, wrote in a note to investors on Monday,<strong>The announcement was chosen before the earnings report to allow the market to focus on an excellent quarter with strong fundamentals when Apple releases its earnings next week.</strong>\"</p><p><strong>Analysts generally believe that Cook's long tenure in office and choosing to finish with a highlight moment is in line with his usual style of conduct.</strong></p><p>This time window of personnel arrangement has significantly heated up the market's expectation of Apple's recent performance. According to FactSet data, the consensus estimate for Apple's fiscal second-quarter earnings per share is $1.94, with revenue estimates of $109.35 billion; Combining ratings from 54 analysts, Apple stock has an average rating of \"overweight\" and a price target of $301.62. Apple shares edged lower on Tuesday, with gains and losses nearly flat for the year.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_79031703\">The timing of coaching change releases positive signals</h2>Many analysts believe that the leadership handover on the eve of the earnings report is a positive signal in itself.</p><p>Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson, said: \"Cook will not choose to retire in a time of crisis. He has the opportunity to retire at a time when iPhone sales are record, the company is growing significantly, the upgrade cycle is good and the outlook is clear.\"</p><p>Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan and his team reported on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603903\">Zhongzhi</a>Same judgment: Given that Apple is likely planning the change against the backdrop of strong business momentum, the recent performance is extremely resilient.</p><p>Analysts generally believe that Cook's long tenure in office and choosing to finish with a highlight moment is in line with his usual style of conduct.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3871245641\">Hardware Background Succession Initiates Strategy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo</a></h2>While paying attention to short-term financial reports, Wall Street has also begun to evaluate the potential impact of Ternus's CEO appointment on Apple's long-term strategic direction.</p><p><strong>Ternus has long dominated Apple's hardware engineering, and its appointment has been interpreted by some analysts as Apple may re-tilt its strategic focus on hardware and products, instead of continuing its focus on service business in recent years.</strong></p><p>\"A product-oriented leader with years of experience in Apple's hardware design means we may be entering a device,\" wrote Mohan of Bank of America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">New Age</a>— — Covering AI-enabled devices, wearable forms (including AR glasses) and smart home devices. \"He also pointed out that\" 2027 may be an important product year \", which coincides with the 20th anniversary of the iPhone.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Cook retired and Ternus took over. The time node itself was regarded as a \"silent notice\" of strong performance by Wall Street. Analysts generally believe that Cook's long tenure in office and choosing to finish with a highlight moment is in line with his usual style of conduct.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company chose to announce the CEO change a week before the quarterly financial report was released. This time node has aroused widespread concern from Wall Street analysts. Many parties believe that this move implies that the company is about to hand over a bright report card.</p><p>Apple announced Monday that current CEO Tim Cook will be transferred to executive chairman, and John Ternus, senior vice president and head of hardware engineering, will officially take over as CEO on September 1st. The company will release its fiscal second-quarter results on April 30.</p><p>\"My gut tells me,\" Ben Reitzes, head of technology research at Melius Research, wrote in a note to investors on Monday,<strong>The announcement was chosen before the earnings report to allow the market to focus on an excellent quarter with strong fundamentals when Apple releases its earnings next week.</strong>\"</p><p><strong>Analysts generally believe that Cook's long tenure in office and choosing to finish with a highlight moment is in line with his usual style of conduct.</strong></p><p>This time window of personnel arrangement has significantly heated up the market's expectation of Apple's recent performance. According to FactSet data, the consensus estimate for Apple's fiscal second-quarter earnings per share is $1.94, with revenue estimates of $109.35 billion; Combining ratings from 54 analysts, Apple stock has an average rating of \"overweight\" and a price target of $301.62. Apple shares edged lower on Tuesday, with gains and losses nearly flat for the year.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_79031703\">The timing of coaching change releases positive signals</h2>Many analysts believe that the leadership handover on the eve of the earnings report is a positive signal in itself.</p><p>Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson, said: \"Cook will not choose to retire in a time of crisis. He has the opportunity to retire at a time when iPhone sales are record, the company is growing significantly, the upgrade cycle is good and the outlook is clear.\"</p><p>Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan and his team reported on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603903\">Zhongzhi</a>Same judgment: Given that Apple is likely planning the change against the backdrop of strong business momentum, the recent performance is extremely resilient.</p><p>Analysts generally believe that Cook's long tenure in office and choosing to finish with a highlight moment is in line with his usual style of conduct.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3871245641\">Hardware Background Succession Initiates Strategy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo</a></h2>While paying attention to short-term financial reports, Wall Street has also begun to evaluate the potential impact of Ternus's CEO appointment on Apple's long-term strategic direction.</p><p><strong>Ternus has long dominated Apple's hardware engineering, and its appointment has been interpreted by some analysts as Apple may re-tilt its strategic focus on hardware and products, instead of continuing its focus on service business in recent years.</strong></p><p>\"A product-oriented leader with years of experience in Apple's hardware design means we may be entering a device,\" wrote Mohan of Bank of America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">New Age</a>— — Covering AI-enabled devices, wearable forms (including AR glasses) and smart home devices. \"He also pointed out that\" 2027 may be an important product year \", which coincides with the 20th anniversary of the iPhone.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - 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Plotting the difference between these two expected inflation rates delivers this so-called curve, which has been under intense scrutiny.The breakeven curve \"highlights the markets moving on from the [Iran] conflict,\" wrote Barry Knapp, managing partner of Ironsides Macroeconomics, underneath a video posted Monday.Similarly, the curve got \"deeply inverted\" following the Iran war but \"then quickly reversed on expectations any price impact would not impact the longer-run trend inflation rate,\" Knapp wrote on Friday.This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street traders have become preoccupied by one particular market indicator.</p><p>Some refer to it as the Treasury breakeven inflation curve and, while that&#39;s a bit of a mouthful, it&#39;s simply the market&#39;s expectation of average inflation over two periods.</p><p>The breakeven inflation rate for the 2-year and 10-year reveal how the market thinks prices would behave in the near- and long-term. Plotting the difference between these two expected inflation rates delivers this so-called curve, which has been under intense scrutiny.</p><p>The breakeven curve &#34;highlights the markets moving on from the [Iran] conflict,&#34; wrote Barry Knapp, managing partner of Ironsides Macroeconomics, underneath a video posted Monday.</p><p>How? Consider what happened after Russia invaded Ukraine and after President Donald Trump unveiled punitive tariffs. In those cases, the difference between the 10- and 2-year breakeven rate reached a low point of negative 1.95 percentage points and negative 1.13 percentage points, respectively, before moving back up again.</p><p>Similarly, the curve got &#34;deeply inverted&#34; following the Iran war but &#34;then quickly reversed on expectations any price impact would not impact the longer-run trend inflation rate,&#34; Knapp wrote on Friday.</p><p>Currently, the gap between the 10- and 2-year breakeven rate is at negative 0.5408 percentage points, higher than the negative 0.997 percentage points on March 20.</p><p>The gap has reduced as the market now assumes lower annual average inflation over the short term. Specifically, the 2-year breakeven inflation rate is now at 2.9369% versus 3.3831% on March 20.</p><p>Meanwhile, the market&#39;s long-term expectations, or 10-year breakeven inflation rate, has stayed around 2.34% this entire time. An unchanged rate over the long-term means that despite the attacks on the Federal Reserve&#39;s independence, the Iran war and inflation remaining above the Fed&#39;s target over the past five years, investors believe the central bank will ultimately keep inflation restrained.</p><p>&#34;Arguably if the bond market was truly concerned that a captured Fed would cut rates too much and stoke pernicious and persistent inflation, it is unlikely we would see market-based long-run inflation expectations remain so contained,&#34; Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, wrote on April 3.</p><p>&#34;We have been joking, &#39;find someone to believe in you like the bond market believes in the Fed&#39;s ability to achieve its inflation target,&#39;&#34; she added. Earlier this year, it would have been hard to find discussion around the cryptic 2s10s breakeven inflation curve. This unique measure is getting attention as it delivers a signal on where the bond market stands on the Iran war: It&#39;s now less bothered.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Bond Market Is \"Moving On\" From the Iran War</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Bond Market Is \"Moving On\" From the Iran War\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-14 10:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street traders have become preoccupied by one particular market indicator.</p><p>Some refer to it as the Treasury breakeven inflation curve and, while that&#39;s a bit of a mouthful, it&#39;s simply the market&#39;s expectation of average inflation over two periods.</p><p>The breakeven inflation rate for the 2-year and 10-year reveal how the market thinks prices would behave in the near- and long-term. Plotting the difference between these two expected inflation rates delivers this so-called curve, which has been under intense scrutiny.</p><p>The breakeven curve &#34;highlights the markets moving on from the [Iran] conflict,&#34; wrote Barry Knapp, managing partner of Ironsides Macroeconomics, underneath a video posted Monday.</p><p>How? Consider what happened after Russia invaded Ukraine and after President Donald Trump unveiled punitive tariffs. In those cases, the difference between the 10- and 2-year breakeven rate reached a low point of negative 1.95 percentage points and negative 1.13 percentage points, respectively, before moving back up again.</p><p>Similarly, the curve got &#34;deeply inverted&#34; following the Iran war but &#34;then quickly reversed on expectations any price impact would not impact the longer-run trend inflation rate,&#34; Knapp wrote on Friday.</p><p>Currently, the gap between the 10- and 2-year breakeven rate is at negative 0.5408 percentage points, higher than the negative 0.997 percentage points on March 20.</p><p>The gap has reduced as the market now assumes lower annual average inflation over the short term. Specifically, the 2-year breakeven inflation rate is now at 2.9369% versus 3.3831% on March 20.</p><p>Meanwhile, the market&#39;s long-term expectations, or 10-year breakeven inflation rate, has stayed around 2.34% this entire time. An unchanged rate over the long-term means that despite the attacks on the Federal Reserve&#39;s independence, the Iran war and inflation remaining above the Fed&#39;s target over the past five years, investors believe the central bank will ultimately keep inflation restrained.</p><p>&#34;Arguably if the bond market was truly concerned that a captured Fed would cut rates too much and stoke pernicious and persistent inflation, it is unlikely we would see market-based long-run inflation expectations remain so contained,&#34; Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, wrote on April 3.</p><p>&#34;We have been joking, &#39;find someone to believe in you like the bond market believes in the Fed&#39;s ability to achieve its inflation target,&#39;&#34; she added. Earlier this year, it would have been hard to find discussion around the cryptic 2s10s breakeven inflation curve. This unique measure is getting attention as it delivers a signal on where the bond market stands on the Iran war: It&#39;s now less bothered.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VIX":"标普500波动率指数","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2627466031","content_text":"Wall Street traders have become preoccupied by one particular market indicator.Some refer to it as the Treasury breakeven inflation curve and, while that's a bit of a mouthful, it's simply the market's expectation of average inflation over two periods.The breakeven inflation rate for the 2-year and 10-year reveal how the market thinks prices would behave in the near- and long-term. Plotting the difference between these two expected inflation rates delivers this so-called curve, which has been under intense scrutiny.The breakeven curve \"highlights the markets moving on from the [Iran] conflict,\" wrote Barry Knapp, managing partner of Ironsides Macroeconomics, underneath a video posted Monday.How? Consider what happened after Russia invaded Ukraine and after President Donald Trump unveiled punitive tariffs. In those cases, the difference between the 10- and 2-year breakeven rate reached a low point of negative 1.95 percentage points and negative 1.13 percentage points, respectively, before moving back up again.Similarly, the curve got \"deeply inverted\" following the Iran war but \"then quickly reversed on expectations any price impact would not impact the longer-run trend inflation rate,\" Knapp wrote on Friday.Currently, the gap between the 10- and 2-year breakeven rate is at negative 0.5408 percentage points, higher than the negative 0.997 percentage points on March 20.The gap has reduced as the market now assumes lower annual average inflation over the short term. Specifically, the 2-year breakeven inflation rate is now at 2.9369% versus 3.3831% on March 20.Meanwhile, the market's long-term expectations, or 10-year breakeven inflation rate, has stayed around 2.34% this entire time. An unchanged rate over the long-term means that despite the attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence, the Iran war and inflation remaining above the Fed's target over the past five years, investors believe the central bank will ultimately keep inflation restrained.\"Arguably if the bond market was truly concerned that a captured Fed would cut rates too much and stoke pernicious and persistent inflation, it is unlikely we would see market-based long-run inflation expectations remain so contained,\" Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, wrote on April 3.\"We have been joking, 'find someone to believe in you like the bond market believes in the Fed's ability to achieve its inflation target,'\" she added. Earlier this year, it would have been hard to find discussion around the cryptic 2s10s breakeven inflation curve. 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