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singsongone11

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Logic","starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":572218161578128,"gmtCreate":1780724149341,"gmtModify":1780724152070,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/572218161578128","repostId":"571929454306264","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":571929454306264,"gmtCreate":1780653571648,"gmtModify":1780658490118,"author":{"id":"4176423247955812","authorId":"4176423247955812","name":"Lanceljx","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/09909b81957df6057776741ed24e12fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4176423247955812","idStr":"4176423247955812"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"For long-term investors, a 3-4% pullback in NVIDIA is not especially meaningful. The core thesis remains intact: hyperscaler AI spending is still growing, TSMC continues to report strong demand, and NVIDIA remains the dominant supplier of AI accelerators. That said, the market is no longer pricing NVIDIA as a cyclical chip company. Expectations are extremely high. Broadcom's reaction shows that even strong results can trigger selloffs if guidance fails to exceed lofty forecasts. My approach would be gradual accumulation rather than trying to time the bottom. Geopolitical headlines and profit-taking could create further volatility, but waiting for complete clarity often means buying at higher prices later. The key question is not whether NVDA can grow, but whether growth can continue to out","listText":"For long-term investors, a 3-4% pullback in NVIDIA is not especially meaningful. The core thesis remains intact: hyperscaler AI spending is still growing, TSMC continues to report strong demand, and NVIDIA remains the dominant supplier of AI accelerators. That said, the market is no longer pricing NVIDIA as a cyclical chip company. Expectations are extremely high. Broadcom's reaction shows that even strong results can trigger selloffs if guidance fails to exceed lofty forecasts. My approach would be gradual accumulation rather than trying to time the bottom. Geopolitical headlines and profit-taking could create further volatility, but waiting for complete clarity often means buying at higher prices later. The key question is not whether NVDA can grow, but whether growth can continue to out","text":"For long-term investors, a 3-4% pullback in NVIDIA is not especially meaningful. The core thesis remains intact: hyperscaler AI spending is still growing, TSMC continues to report strong demand, and NVIDIA remains the dominant supplier of AI accelerators. That said, the market is no longer pricing NVIDIA as a cyclical chip company. Expectations are extremely high. Broadcom's reaction shows that even strong results can trigger selloffs if guidance fails to exceed lofty forecasts. My approach would be gradual accumulation rather than trying to time the bottom. Geopolitical headlines and profit-taking could create further volatility, but waiting for complete clarity often means buying at higher prices later. The key question is not whether NVDA can grow, but whether growth can continue to out","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/571929454306264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":571568968201432,"gmtCreate":1780565751808,"gmtModify":1780565753347,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/571568968201432","repostId":"1139198524","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139198524","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Global Stock News First-Time Broadcast","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Stock News","id":"1036600163","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a"},"pubTimestamp":1780565436,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139198524?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-06-04 17:30","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Baoji Pharmaceutical-B Receives NMPA Acceptance for New Drug Application of Injectable KJ103","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139198524","media":"Stock News","summary":"Baoji Pharmaceutical-B (HKEX: 02659) announced that on June 4, 2026, the New Drug Application (NDA) for its self-developed injectable KJ103 was accepted for review by China's National Medical...","content":"<p><b>Baoji Pharmaceutical-B</b> (<b>HKEX: 02659</b>) announced that on June 4, 2026, the New Drug Application (NDA) for its self-developed injectable KJ103 was accepted for review by China's National Medical Products Administration (NMPA).<br><br>The application is for the use of KJ103 in desensitization therapy for highly sensitized kidney transplant patients, to effectively clear pre-existing HLA antibodies and prevent hyperacute rejection. The application was also approved for inclusion in a priority review program by the NMPA's Center for Drug Evaluation on May 20, 2026.<br><br>KJ103 is a first-in-class, low-immunogenicity innovative recombinant immunoglobulin G (IgG) degrading enzyme, intended for treating various immune diseases and conditions driven by pathological IgG antibody activity. It works by binding to the CH2 region of the IgG constant domain and cleaving IgG at a specific site in the hinge region between CH1 and CH2. This mechanism is well-defined and carries a low immunogenicity risk, allowing for the safe, efficient, rapid, and specific degradation of human IgG to quickly clear pre-existing HLA antibodies in highly sensitized transplant patients.<br><br>This specific indication was granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the NMPA's Center for Drug Evaluation on November 19, 2024. KJ103 has now completed the primary trial follow-up for all participants in its Phase III clinical trial, with the completed studies supporting this marketing application.<br><br>Clinical data show that KJ103 administration can rapidly and effectively reduce or eliminate HLA antibodies, achieving a 100% desensitization treatment success rate and a 100% kidney transplant success rate prior to transplantation, with a graft survival rate of 100% beyond three months.<br><br>The company is also actively exploring the therapeutic potential of KJ103 in other antibody-mediated acute autoimmune diseases. For instance, KJ103 completed a Phase II clinical trial for anti-glomerular basement membrane disease (anti-GBM disease) in October 2025, and initiated a Phase II clinical trial for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in November 2025.<br><br>According to publicly available data, compared to other approved IgG degrading enzymes on the market, KJ103 demonstrates lower percentages and titers of pre-existing antibodies, indicating its potential to offer a safer and more effective treatment option for patients with acute autoimmune conditions.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Baoji Pharmaceutical-B Receives NMPA Acceptance for New Drug Application of Injectable KJ103</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBaoji Pharmaceutical-B Receives NMPA Acceptance for New Drug Application of Injectable KJ103\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036600163\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Stock News </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-04 17:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Baoji Pharmaceutical-B</b> (<b>HKEX: 02659</b>) announced that on June 4, 2026, the New Drug Application (NDA) for its self-developed injectable KJ103 was accepted for review by China's National Medical Products Administration (NMPA).<br><br>The application is for the use of KJ103 in desensitization therapy for highly sensitized kidney transplant patients, to effectively clear pre-existing HLA antibodies and prevent hyperacute rejection. The application was also approved for inclusion in a priority review program by the NMPA's Center for Drug Evaluation on May 20, 2026.<br><br>KJ103 is a first-in-class, low-immunogenicity innovative recombinant immunoglobulin G (IgG) degrading enzyme, intended for treating various immune diseases and conditions driven by pathological IgG antibody activity. It works by binding to the CH2 region of the IgG constant domain and cleaving IgG at a specific site in the hinge region between CH1 and CH2. This mechanism is well-defined and carries a low immunogenicity risk, allowing for the safe, efficient, rapid, and specific degradation of human IgG to quickly clear pre-existing HLA antibodies in highly sensitized transplant patients.<br><br>This specific indication was granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the NMPA's Center for Drug Evaluation on November 19, 2024. KJ103 has now completed the primary trial follow-up for all participants in its Phase III clinical trial, with the completed studies supporting this marketing application.<br><br>Clinical data show that KJ103 administration can rapidly and effectively reduce or eliminate HLA antibodies, achieving a 100% desensitization treatment success rate and a 100% kidney transplant success rate prior to transplantation, with a graft survival rate of 100% beyond three months.<br><br>The company is also actively exploring the therapeutic potential of KJ103 in other antibody-mediated acute autoimmune diseases. For instance, KJ103 completed a Phase II clinical trial for anti-glomerular basement membrane disease (anti-GBM disease) in October 2025, and initiated a Phase II clinical trial for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in November 2025.<br><br>According to publicly available data, compared to other approved IgG degrading enzymes on the market, KJ103 demonstrates lower percentages and titers of pre-existing antibodies, indicating its potential to offer a safer and more effective treatment option for patients with acute autoimmune conditions.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IPOS":"Renaissance International IPO ETF","BK1161":"生物科技","02659":"宝济药业-B"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139198524","content_text":"Baoji Pharmaceutical-B (HKEX: 02659) announced that on June 4, 2026, the New Drug Application (NDA) for its self-developed injectable KJ103 was accepted for review by China's National Medical Products Administration (NMPA).The application is for the use of KJ103 in desensitization therapy for highly sensitized kidney transplant patients, to effectively clear pre-existing HLA antibodies and prevent hyperacute rejection. The application was also approved for inclusion in a priority review program by the NMPA's Center for Drug Evaluation on May 20, 2026.KJ103 is a first-in-class, low-immunogenicity innovative recombinant immunoglobulin G (IgG) degrading enzyme, intended for treating various immune diseases and conditions driven by pathological IgG antibody activity. It works by binding to the CH2 region of the IgG constant domain and cleaving IgG at a specific site in the hinge region between CH1 and CH2. This mechanism is well-defined and carries a low immunogenicity risk, allowing for the safe, efficient, rapid, and specific degradation of human IgG to quickly clear pre-existing HLA antibodies in highly sensitized transplant patients.This specific indication was granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the NMPA's Center for Drug Evaluation on November 19, 2024. KJ103 has now completed the primary trial follow-up for all participants in its Phase III clinical trial, with the completed studies supporting this marketing application.Clinical data show that KJ103 administration can rapidly and effectively reduce or eliminate HLA antibodies, achieving a 100% desensitization treatment success rate and a 100% kidney transplant success rate prior to transplantation, with a graft survival rate of 100% beyond three months.The company is also actively exploring the therapeutic potential of KJ103 in other antibody-mediated acute autoimmune diseases. For instance, KJ103 completed a Phase II clinical trial for anti-glomerular basement membrane disease (anti-GBM disease) in October 2025, and initiated a Phase II clinical trial for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in November 2025.According to publicly available data, compared to other approved IgG degrading enzymes on the market, KJ103 demonstrates lower percentages and titers of pre-existing antibodies, indicating its potential to offer a safer and more effective treatment option for patients with acute autoimmune conditions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IPOS":1,"02659":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":570586374079592,"gmtCreate":1780306921225,"gmtModify":1780995940210,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ @Trade Feed 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ @Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":21,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/558467309134952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033724084408,"gmtCreate":1777018987680,"gmtModify":1777018990574,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6666","listText":"6666","text":"6666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557033724084408","repostId":"1147543947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147543947","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1777018770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147543947?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-24 16:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147543947","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"即便霍尔木兹危机解除，短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台，高盛最新研报指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放，且石油资产未遭受新的打击，海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日，比战前水平低57%，预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。外部机构平均预测显示，重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%，6个月后恢复88%。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业，以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-24 16:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147543947","content_text":"高盛最新研报给出了审慎答案：海湾地区高达1450万桶/日的减产，即便海峡解封，3个月后也仅能恢复70%，6个月后恢复88%。油轮运力骤降50%、油井修复复杂性随停产时长指数级攀升、储层压力不可逆变化……多重硬性约束叠加\"疤痕效应\"，让这场产能重建之路远比市场预期的更为漫长。即便霍尔木兹危机解除，短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台，高盛最新研报指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放，且石油资产未遭受新的打击，海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日，比战前水平低57%，预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。然而，对于原油投资者而言，真正的博弈点在于尾部风险：如果海峡关闭时间显著延长，最后阶段的产能恢复将耗时更久，甚至可能无法完全兑现。外部机构平均预测显示，重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%，6个月后恢复88%。核心制约：运输瓶颈与油井物理特性一旦海峡安全重开，产能恢复并不能一蹴而就，而是面临三大硬性物理与物流约束：去库存的运输能力：管道容量和空船可用性是关键。自战争爆发以来，海湾地区可用的空油轮容量已大幅下降约50%（减少了1.3亿桶，即130 mb）。尽管历史上霍尔木兹海峡的流量峰值曾达到2330万桶/日（正常水平为2000万桶/日），且管道改道峰值曾高出正常水平350万桶/日，但运力紧张仍是首要瓶颈。供应链与劳动力：油田修井作业所需的材料和工人可用性将直接影响复产进度。油井流率的复杂性：强制减产会导致不同类型储层的压力和流率出现复杂变化。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业，以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。正如油服巨头哈里伯顿和威德福高管所言，油井关闭时间越长，重启的复杂性就越高，且无法保证能恢复到完全相同的流率。时间是最大的敌人：关闭越久，恢复越慢研报明确指出，海峡实际关闭的时间越长，减产持续的时间就越久，随后的产量恢复速度就越慢。这种延迟效应主要体现在三个方面：油井需要进行更复杂的修复工作。枯竭的投入品（如钻杆）采购速度变慢。积压库存的去化将更长时间地挤占新产量的运输能力。稳健恢复的底气：物理损伤有限与核心产油国的备用产能尽管存在上述制约，高盛依然认为产能能在几个月内实现“大部分恢复”，主要基于以下三个逻辑：物理破坏有限：与液化天然气（LNG）资产形成鲜明对比的是，目前公开报道显示，油田遭受的物理损坏仍然非常有限。沙特阿美的快速响应能力：沙特阿美总裁兼CEO在3月份曾表示，沙特拥有充足的备用产能，且在某些地区采取的是限制油井流量而非完全关闭的措施，因此产量可以在“几天内，而不是几周内”迅速提升。历史经验与备用产能：历史上的供应中断事件表明，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋通常会部署其可用的备用产能来稳定市场。据估计，在全面安全重开后，两国可部署超过200万桶/日的备用产能。长期尾部风险：储层差异与潜在的“疤痕效应”对于长线投资者而言，必须警惕全面恢复可能需要数个季度，甚至在长期关闭后只能实现部分恢复的风险：油田与国家间的巨大差异：海湾各国在储层特征、基础设施完善度、维护水平以及制裁风险（如伊朗）方面存在显著差异。例如，数据显示，伊朗和伊拉克具有相对低压储层的产量份额高于海湾其他地区（近一半的伊朗储层被评估为低压），这增加了复产难度。历史恢复周期的不确定性：回顾历史上的减产事件，产量恢复的速度和程度存在巨大差异，而当前的冲击规模是史无前例的。战争复发的“疤痕风险”：虽然这不是基准预测，但如果敌对行动恢复，石油生产能力面临巨大“疤痕效应”（永久性损伤）的风险将显著上升，这在过去五次最大的石油供应冲击中已有先例。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033617838752,"gmtCreate":1777018977845,"gmtModify":1777018979833,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557033617838752","repostId":"1147543947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147543947","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1777018770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147543947?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-24 16:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147543947","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"即便霍尔木兹危机解除，短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台，高盛最新研报指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放，且石油资产未遭受新的打击，海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日，比战前水平低57%，预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。外部机构平均预测显示，重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%，6个月后恢复88%。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业，以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Hormuz reopens, how long will Middle East crude oil production capacity be restored?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-24 16:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman's latest research report gives a prudent answer: the production cut in the Gulf region is as high as 14.5 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is unsealed, it can only recover by 70% after three months and 88% after six months. The tanker capacity has dropped by 50%, the complexity of oil well repair has increased exponentially with the shutdown time, and the reservoir pressure has changed irreversibly... Multiple rigid constraints superimpose the \"scar effect\", which makes this road to capacity reconstruction far longer than the market expected.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the Hormuz crisis is lifted, there will still be some structural supply friction in the short term.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully and safely reopened in the next few months, and there is no new blow to oil assets, the current cut in the Gulf region due to the war is about 14.5 million barrels per day, which is 57% lower than the pre-war level<strong>, is expected to achieve most of the recovery within a few months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, for crude oil investors, the real game is the tail risk: if the channel closure is significantly extended,<strong>The final phase of capacity recovery will take longer and may not even be fully delivered.</strong>The average forecast of external agencies shows that only 70% of the lost output can be recovered after three months of reopening and 88% after six months.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2518233\">Core Constraints: Transportation Bottleneck and Oil Well Physical Characteristics</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once the strait is safely reopened, capacity recovery cannot be achieved overnight, but faces three hard physical and logistical constraints:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Destocking shipping capacity:</strong>Pipeline capacity and empty vessel availability are key. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped significantly by about 50% since the start of the war (a reduction of 130 million barrels, or 130 mb). Although the peak flow in the Strait of Hormuz has reached 23.3 million barrels per day in history (the normal level is 20 million barrels per day), and the peak pipeline diversion has been 3.5 million barrels per day higher than the normal level, the tight capacity is still the primary bottleneck.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Chain and Workforce:</strong>The availability of materials and workers required for field workover operations will directly affect the resumption schedule.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Complexity of well flow rates:</strong>Forced production reductions can lead to complex changes in pressure and flow rates for different types of reservoirs. Intervention and workover operations are required before the wells are reopened to restore previous productivity as much as possible. As executives at oil services giants Halliburton and Weatherford argue, the longer the well is shut down, the more complex it is to restart, and there is no guarantee that it will return to exactly the same flow rate.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_3314482349\">Time is the biggest enemy: the longer you shut down, the slower you recover</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The research report clearly pointed out that the longer the strait is actually closed, the longer the production reduction will last, and the slower the subsequent output recovery will be.</strong>This delay effect is mainly reflected in three aspects:</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The well requires more complex remediation work.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Depleted inputs, such as drill pipes, are sourced at a slower rate.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decomposition of the backlog will squeeze out the shipping capacity of new production for longer.</p><p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2215749762\">Confidence for Steady Recovery: Limited Physical Damage and Reserve Capacity in Core Oil-Producing Countries</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite these constraints, Goldman Sachs still believes that capacity can achieve \"most recovery\" within a few months, mainly based on the following three logics:</p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Limited physical damage:</strong>In stark contrast to liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, public reports now show that the physical damage to the field remains very limited.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Saudi Aramco's quick response capabilities:</strong>The president and CEO of Saudi Aramco said in March that Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare production capacity, and in some areas, it has taken measures to restrict oil well flow rather than completely shut it down, so production can be rapidly increased in \"days, not weeks\".</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Historical experience and standby capacity:</strong>Historical supply disruption events indicate that Saudi Arabia and the UAE typically deploy their available backup capacity to stabilize the market. It is estimated that the two countries could deploy more than 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity after a full and safe reopening.</p><p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_1469903915\">Long-Term Tail Risk: Reservoir Differences and Potential 'Scarring Effects'</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For long-term investors,<strong>One must be alert to the risk that full recovery could take several quarters, or even only partial recovery after a prolonged shutdown:</strong></p><p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Great differences between fields and countries: Gulf countries have significant differences in reservoir characteristics, infrastructure completeness, maintenance levels, and sanctions risk (e.g. Iran). For example, the data shows that Iran and Iraq have a higher share of production with relatively low-pressure reservoirs than the rest of the Gulf (nearly half of Iranian reservoirs are assessed as low-pressure), making it more difficult to resume production.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The uncertainty of historical recovery cycles: Looking back at historical production reduction events, there are huge differences in the speed and extent of production recovery, and the scale of the current shock is unprecedented.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Scarring Risk\" of Recurrence of War: While this is not a benchmark forecast, the risk of a huge \"scarring effect\" (permanent damage) to oil production capacity rises significantly if hostilities resume, with precedent in the last five biggest oil supply shocks.</p><p></li></ol></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770799","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147543947","content_text":"高盛最新研报给出了审慎答案：海湾地区高达1450万桶/日的减产，即便海峡解封，3个月后也仅能恢复70%，6个月后恢复88%。油轮运力骤降50%、油井修复复杂性随停产时长指数级攀升、储层压力不可逆变化……多重硬性约束叠加\"疤痕效应\"，让这场产能重建之路远比市场预期的更为漫长。即便霍尔木兹危机解除，短期内仍将面临一定的结构性供给摩擦。据追风交易台，高盛最新研报指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来几个月内全面且安全地重新开放，且石油资产未遭受新的打击，海湾地区目前因战争削减的约1450万桶/日，比战前水平低57%，预计将在几个月内实现大部分恢复。然而，对于原油投资者而言，真正的博弈点在于尾部风险：如果海峡关闭时间显著延长，最后阶段的产能恢复将耗时更久，甚至可能无法完全兑现。外部机构平均预测显示，重开3个月后仅能恢复损失产量的70%，6个月后恢复88%。核心制约：运输瓶颈与油井物理特性一旦海峡安全重开，产能恢复并不能一蹴而就，而是面临三大硬性物理与物流约束：去库存的运输能力：管道容量和空船可用性是关键。自战争爆发以来，海湾地区可用的空油轮容量已大幅下降约50%（减少了1.3亿桶，即130 mb）。尽管历史上霍尔木兹海峡的流量峰值曾达到2330万桶/日（正常水平为2000万桶/日），且管道改道峰值曾高出正常水平350万桶/日，但运力紧张仍是首要瓶颈。供应链与劳动力：油田修井作业所需的材料和工人可用性将直接影响复产进度。油井流率的复杂性：强制减产会导致不同类型储层的压力和流率出现复杂变化。油井在重新开放前需要进行干预和修井作业，以尽可能恢复先前的生产率。正如油服巨头哈里伯顿和威德福高管所言，油井关闭时间越长，重启的复杂性就越高，且无法保证能恢复到完全相同的流率。时间是最大的敌人：关闭越久，恢复越慢研报明确指出，海峡实际关闭的时间越长，减产持续的时间就越久，随后的产量恢复速度就越慢。这种延迟效应主要体现在三个方面：油井需要进行更复杂的修复工作。枯竭的投入品（如钻杆）采购速度变慢。积压库存的去化将更长时间地挤占新产量的运输能力。稳健恢复的底气：物理损伤有限与核心产油国的备用产能尽管存在上述制约，高盛依然认为产能能在几个月内实现“大部分恢复”，主要基于以下三个逻辑：物理破坏有限：与液化天然气（LNG）资产形成鲜明对比的是，目前公开报道显示，油田遭受的物理损坏仍然非常有限。沙特阿美的快速响应能力：沙特阿美总裁兼CEO在3月份曾表示，沙特拥有充足的备用产能，且在某些地区采取的是限制油井流量而非完全关闭的措施，因此产量可以在“几天内，而不是几周内”迅速提升。历史经验与备用产能：历史上的供应中断事件表明，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋通常会部署其可用的备用产能来稳定市场。据估计，在全面安全重开后，两国可部署超过200万桶/日的备用产能。长期尾部风险：储层差异与潜在的“疤痕效应”对于长线投资者而言，必须警惕全面恢复可能需要数个季度，甚至在长期关闭后只能实现部分恢复的风险：油田与国家间的巨大差异：海湾各国在储层特征、基础设施完善度、维护水平以及制裁风险（如伊朗）方面存在显著差异。例如，数据显示，伊朗和伊拉克具有相对低压储层的产量份额高于海湾其他地区（近一半的伊朗储层被评估为低压），这增加了复产难度。历史恢复周期的不确定性：回顾历史上的减产事件，产量恢复的速度和程度存在巨大差异，而当前的冲击规模是史无前例的。战争复发的“疤痕风险”：虽然这不是基准预测，但如果敌对行动恢复，石油生产能力面临巨大“疤痕效应”（永久性损伤）的风险将显著上升，这在过去五次最大的石油供应冲击中已有先例。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033101791608,"gmtCreate":1777018935534,"gmtModify":1777018938665,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🐂","listText":"🐂","text":"🐂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557033101791608","repostId":"557068731868344","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":557068731868344,"gmtCreate":1777012199977,"gmtModify":1777012203933,"author":{"id":"4218241451199990","authorId":"4218241451199990","name":"momoyo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4218241451199990","idStr":"4218241451199990"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">$小馬智行(PONY)$</a>行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">$小馬智行(PONY)$</a>行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","text":"$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557068731868344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557033374761752,"gmtCreate":1777018920664,"gmtModify":1777018923445,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557033374761752","repostId":"557068731868344","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":557068731868344,"gmtCreate":1777012199977,"gmtModify":1777012203933,"author":{"id":"4218241451199990","authorId":"4218241451199990","name":"momoyo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4218241451199990","idStr":"4218241451199990"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">$小馬智行(PONY)$</a>行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">$小馬智行(PONY)$</a>行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","text":"$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557068731868344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557032969891952,"gmtCreate":1777018896624,"gmtModify":1777018898797,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557032969891952","repostId":"557068731868344","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":557068731868344,"gmtCreate":1777012199977,"gmtModify":1777012203933,"author":{"id":"4218241451199990","authorId":"4218241451199990","name":"momoyo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4218241451199990","idStr":"4218241451199990"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">$小馬智行(PONY)$</a>行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">$小馬智行(PONY)$</a>行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","text":"$小馬智行(PONY)$行業趨勢很清晰了。電動化解決“動力問題”，智能化解決“決策問題”，而自動駕駛是終極形態。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557068731868344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557032852051112,"gmtCreate":1777002917340,"gmtModify":1777002920763,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😄😄😄😄😄😄😄","listText":"😄😄😄😄😄😄😄","text":"😄😄😄😄😄😄😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557032852051112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":557030032142528,"gmtCreate":1777002308213,"gmtModify":1777002312767,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp; [强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/557030032142528","repostId":"556927221699616","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":556927221699616,"gmtCreate":1776995551573,"gmtModify":1776995554893,"author":{"id":"3581820976934736","authorId":"3581820976934736","name":"MilkTeaBro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f96ac4963a3566e7f4d22e78cc23ef9","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581820976934736","idStr":"3581820976934736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00116\">$CHOW SANG SANG(00116)$ </a> I have held Chow Sang Sang (00116) for a year and decided to add more to my position today. As a traditional jeweler, the company’s book value is largely underpinned by its physical gold inventory, providing a solid asset base.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00116\">$CHOW SANG SANG(00116)$ </a> I have held Chow Sang Sang (00116) for a year and decided to add more to my position today. As a traditional jeweler, the company’s book value is largely underpinned by its physical gold inventory, providing a solid asset base.","text":"$CHOW SANG SANG(00116)$ I have held Chow Sang Sang (00116) for a year and decided to add more to my position today. As a traditional jeweler, the company’s book value is largely underpinned by its physical gold inventory, providing a solid asset base.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cdb403cd4da0189f118100c402c5ed50","width":"882","height":"1620"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/556927221699616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":556676259717776,"gmtCreate":1776934206495,"gmtModify":1776934209531,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/556676259717776","repostId":"2629886124","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629886124","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776932700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2629886124?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-23 16:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629886124","media":"新浪证券","summary":"　　曾凭借国产二价HPV疫苗馨可宁一战成名，登顶A股生物疫苗板块的万泰生物在2025年交出了上市以来最差成绩单。年报数据显示，公司全年实现营业收入18.19亿元，同比下降18.99%；归母净利润-3.98亿元，同比大幅下滑474.89%，历史首次出现年度净亏损。扣除非经常性损益后净亏损进一步扩大至6.23亿元，加权平均净资产收益率跌至-3.30%。　　从季度经营数据来看，万泰生物的亏损呈现逐季加剧态势，经营企稳信号迟迟未现。","content":"<p><html><body><div>Look at stock trading<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">Golden Qilin</a>Analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities!</p><p>Once became famous in World War I with the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin and reached the top of A shares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000504\">biology</a>of the vaccine sector<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a></span><span></span>In 2025, it handed over its worst report card since going public. According to the annual report data, the company's annual operating income was 1.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.99%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was-398 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 474.89% year-on-year, and the first annual net loss in history. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net loss further expanded to 623 million yuan, and the weighted average return on net assets dropped to-3.30%.</p><p>Judging from the quarterly operating data, Wantai Bio's losses are increasing quarter by quarter, and the signal of operating stabilization has not appeared. In the first quarter, the company's loss was 52,776,900 yuan, the loss scale expanded to 91,435,400 yuan in the second quarter, and it briefly narrowed to 28,790,900 yuan in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the loss in a single quarter soared to 225 million yuan, exceeding the total loss in the first three quarters. At the same time, risks such as inventory backlog, reduced capital utilization rate, idle production capacity and asset impairment are concentrated, which not only greatly drags down the current profit, but also becomes a potential burden for subsequent operations.</p><p>　<strong>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets, two main businesses both lost</strong></p><p>The core reason for the huge loss of Wantai Biological's performance is that its two main businesses fell into recession at the same time. The vaccine business of profitable cows in the past completely lost momentum, and the in vitro diagnosis business as a stabilizer was unable to support the bottom. Under the dual pressure, the company lost its basic performance.</p><p>Specifically, the vaccine business was once the absolute core of Wantai Biological's performance. In 2022, the bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin contributed over 8.5 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for over 70% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin remained above 85% for a long time, becoming the core driving force for the company's rapid growth.</p><p>However, since 2023, the vaccine business took a sharp turn. In 2024, the revenue has plummeted to about 600 million yuan, and the decline has further intensified in 2025. During the reporting period, the revenue of the vaccine business was 457 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.63%, and the gross profit margin plummeted by more than 43 percentage points.</p><p>The collapse of the vaccine business is the result of the superposition of policy, market and product factors. At the policy level, since 2023, centralized procurement of HPV vaccines has been launched in many places across the country, and bivalent HPV vaccines have become the key target of centralized procurement. The winning bid price of Wantai Biotech Cecolin has plummeted from 329 yuan for a single dose to about 30 yuan, with a price reduction of over 90%. The cliff-like decline in prices has caused the gross profit margin of bivalent vaccines to plummet from more than 90% at its peak to less than 30% in 2025, and the profit of a single dose has almost returned to zero.</p><p>At the market level, the dual competitive pressure has significantly shrunk the demand for bivalent vaccines. On the one hand,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a></span><span></span>Waiting for domestic bivalent HPV vaccines to be launched one after another, participating in market competition at a lower price, further dividing the existing market, Wantai Biotech lost its price advantage; On the other hand, in 2023, the approved applicable age of imported nine-valent HPV vaccines will be expanded from 16-26 years old to 9-45 years old, covering the core target population of bivalent vaccines, and consumers will give priority to nine-valent vaccines with wider protection, resulting in a cliff-like decline in the market demand for bivalent vaccines.</p><p>Cecolin 9, the first nine-valent HPV vaccine made in China, which is regarded by the company as the hope of a comeback, has a commercialization performance far below expectations after being approved for listing in June 2025. In order to quickly seize the market, Cecolin 9 is priced at only 499 yuan/piece, which is imported<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>About 38% of the nine-valent vaccine, but the low-price strategy did not bring a sales outbreak. The company's annual vaccine business revenue was less than 500 million yuan, a record low, and the performance gap of bivalent vaccine is still difficult to make up.</p><p><div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/113/w630h283/20260423/7a27-af4cc76d68728ff33b2277a70da63f22.png\"/><span></span></div>At the same time, the domestic nine-valent vaccine track has become extremely crowded,<span>Recreation Guard</span><span></span>Domestic nine-valent vaccines such as Bowei Bio and Bowei Bio have entered the third phase of clinical trials and are expected to be launched one after another in 2026. In the future, Cecolin 9 will face the double encirclement and suppression of domestic competing products and imported products, making it difficult to break through the market.</p><p>In addition to HPV vaccines, the revenue scale of the company's traditional vaccines such as chickenpox and herpes zoster is less than 100 million yuan. Products under development such as 20-valent pneumonia and 11-valent HPV are still in the early clinical stage and are expected to be listed after 2030 to contribute revenue. The vaccine business has no new performance growth points in the short term, and there is no hope of warming up.</p><p>As a former performance stabilizer, the in vitro diagnostics business also performed sluggishly in 2025, failing to hedge the loss of the vaccine business. In 2025, Wantai Biotech's in vitro diagnostic business achieved revenue of 1.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.65%, and its gross profit margin decreased by 7.98 percentage points to 56.99% compared with 2024, with both revenue and profit decreasing.</p><p>　　<strong>Impairment, receivables and depreciation are heavy burdens for future operations</strong></p><p>At the same time as the core business collapsed, Wantai Bio also exposed multiple serious problems in asset operation and financial management. Risks such as cash flow pressure, inventory backlog, high accounts receivable, and idle asset impairment continued to ferment, which not only aggravated the losses in 2025, but also became a potential burden for 2026 and future operations.</p><p>Among them, inventory impairment has become an important factor devouring the company's profits, and the inventory pressure of vaccine products has not been fully released. At the end of 2025, the company's inventory balance decreased by 30.97% year-on-year to 21.6584 million units, but it was mainly the result of passive cleanup of bivalent HPV vaccine and large provision for impairment.</p><p>In 2025, the company's asset impairment loss reached 215 million yuan, almost all of which came from the impairment of inventory and contract assets, most of which were the impairment provision of bivalent HPV vaccine. This part of the impairment loss accounted for 54% of the company's current loss, which was an important driver of the company's turn from profit to loss.</p><p>By the end of 2025, the book value of the company's inventory goods after provision is 269 million yuan. If the subsequent market promotion of nine-valent HPV vaccine is less than expected, or the inventory clearing progress of bivalent HPV vaccine slows down, the company will still have the risk of continuous provision for asset impairment in the future, further squeezing profit margins.</p><p>In terms of accounts receivable, the company's accounts and bills receivable amounted to RMB1.625 billion at the end of 2025. From 2021 to 2025, the Company's accounts receivable turnover days were 92.26 days, 99.7 days, 226.37 days, 403.36 days and 361.92 days, respectively. Although it was shortened in 2025, it was still at a historically high level, and the capital turnover efficiency was not good.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset depreciation, in 2025, the company will invest 350 million yuan in fixed assets to expand the production of nine-valent HPV vaccine and update diagnostic equipment, and the balance of fixed assets will reach 2.87 billion yuan. However, the current capacity utilization rate of vaccine and diagnostic business is insufficient, a large number of fixed assets are idle, and the depreciation expenses of fixed assets will increase by 14.7% year-on-year to 263 million yuan.</p><p>Overall, Wantai Biotech's huge loss in 2025 is the result of the concentrated outbreak of multiple problems such as the loss of power in its core business, market response errors, and improper asset management and control. It once relied on a single vaccine product to create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">brilliant</a>The curtain had already ended. At present, problems such as commercialization of nine-valent vaccines and inventory resolution remain to be solved, and it remains to be seen whether the company can get rid of operating difficulties.</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information and accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP</div></div>Editor-in-Charge: Company Watch</p><p></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTriple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪证券</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-23 16:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>Look at stock trading<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">Golden Qilin</a>Analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities!</p><p>Once became famous in World War I with the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin and reached the top of A shares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000504\">biology</a>of the vaccine sector<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a></span><span></span>In 2025, it handed over its worst report card since going public. According to the annual report data, the company's annual operating income was 1.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.99%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was-398 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 474.89% year-on-year, and the first annual net loss in history. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net loss further expanded to 623 million yuan, and the weighted average return on net assets dropped to-3.30%.</p><p>Judging from the quarterly operating data, Wantai Bio's losses are increasing quarter by quarter, and the signal of operating stabilization has not appeared. In the first quarter, the company's loss was 52,776,900 yuan, the loss scale expanded to 91,435,400 yuan in the second quarter, and it briefly narrowed to 28,790,900 yuan in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the loss in a single quarter soared to 225 million yuan, exceeding the total loss in the first three quarters. At the same time, risks such as inventory backlog, reduced capital utilization rate, idle production capacity and asset impairment are concentrated, which not only greatly drags down the current profit, but also becomes a potential burden for subsequent operations.</p><p>　<strong>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets, two main businesses both lost</strong></p><p>The core reason for the huge loss of Wantai Biological's performance is that its two main businesses fell into recession at the same time. The vaccine business of profitable cows in the past completely lost momentum, and the in vitro diagnosis business as a stabilizer was unable to support the bottom. Under the dual pressure, the company lost its basic performance.</p><p>Specifically, the vaccine business was once the absolute core of Wantai Biological's performance. In 2022, the bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin contributed over 8.5 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for over 70% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin remained above 85% for a long time, becoming the core driving force for the company's rapid growth.</p><p>However, since 2023, the vaccine business took a sharp turn. In 2024, the revenue has plummeted to about 600 million yuan, and the decline has further intensified in 2025. During the reporting period, the revenue of the vaccine business was 457 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.63%, and the gross profit margin plummeted by more than 43 percentage points.</p><p>The collapse of the vaccine business is the result of the superposition of policy, market and product factors. At the policy level, since 2023, centralized procurement of HPV vaccines has been launched in many places across the country, and bivalent HPV vaccines have become the key target of centralized procurement. The winning bid price of Wantai Biotech Cecolin has plummeted from 329 yuan for a single dose to about 30 yuan, with a price reduction of over 90%. The cliff-like decline in prices has caused the gross profit margin of bivalent vaccines to plummet from more than 90% at its peak to less than 30% in 2025, and the profit of a single dose has almost returned to zero.</p><p>At the market level, the dual competitive pressure has significantly shrunk the demand for bivalent vaccines. On the one hand,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a></span><span></span>Waiting for domestic bivalent HPV vaccines to be launched one after another, participating in market competition at a lower price, further dividing the existing market, Wantai Biotech lost its price advantage; On the other hand, in 2023, the approved applicable age of imported nine-valent HPV vaccines will be expanded from 16-26 years old to 9-45 years old, covering the core target population of bivalent vaccines, and consumers will give priority to nine-valent vaccines with wider protection, resulting in a cliff-like decline in the market demand for bivalent vaccines.</p><p>Cecolin 9, the first nine-valent HPV vaccine made in China, which is regarded by the company as the hope of a comeback, has a commercialization performance far below expectations after being approved for listing in June 2025. In order to quickly seize the market, Cecolin 9 is priced at only 499 yuan/piece, which is imported<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>About 38% of the nine-valent vaccine, but the low-price strategy did not bring a sales outbreak. The company's annual vaccine business revenue was less than 500 million yuan, a record low, and the performance gap of bivalent vaccine is still difficult to make up.</p><p><div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/113/w630h283/20260423/7a27-af4cc76d68728ff33b2277a70da63f22.png\"/><span></span></div>At the same time, the domestic nine-valent vaccine track has become extremely crowded,<span>Recreation Guard</span><span></span>Domestic nine-valent vaccines such as Bowei Bio and Bowei Bio have entered the third phase of clinical trials and are expected to be launched one after another in 2026. In the future, Cecolin 9 will face the double encirclement and suppression of domestic competing products and imported products, making it difficult to break through the market.</p><p>In addition to HPV vaccines, the revenue scale of the company's traditional vaccines such as chickenpox and herpes zoster is less than 100 million yuan. Products under development such as 20-valent pneumonia and 11-valent HPV are still in the early clinical stage and are expected to be listed after 2030 to contribute revenue. The vaccine business has no new performance growth points in the short term, and there is no hope of warming up.</p><p>As a former performance stabilizer, the in vitro diagnostics business also performed sluggishly in 2025, failing to hedge the loss of the vaccine business. In 2025, Wantai Biotech's in vitro diagnostic business achieved revenue of 1.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.65%, and its gross profit margin decreased by 7.98 percentage points to 56.99% compared with 2024, with both revenue and profit decreasing.</p><p>　　<strong>Impairment, receivables and depreciation are heavy burdens for future operations</strong></p><p>At the same time as the core business collapsed, Wantai Bio also exposed multiple serious problems in asset operation and financial management. Risks such as cash flow pressure, inventory backlog, high accounts receivable, and idle asset impairment continued to ferment, which not only aggravated the losses in 2025, but also became a potential burden for 2026 and future operations.</p><p>Among them, inventory impairment has become an important factor devouring the company's profits, and the inventory pressure of vaccine products has not been fully released. At the end of 2025, the company's inventory balance decreased by 30.97% year-on-year to 21.6584 million units, but it was mainly the result of passive cleanup of bivalent HPV vaccine and large provision for impairment.</p><p>In 2025, the company's asset impairment loss reached 215 million yuan, almost all of which came from the impairment of inventory and contract assets, most of which were the impairment provision of bivalent HPV vaccine. This part of the impairment loss accounted for 54% of the company's current loss, which was an important driver of the company's turn from profit to loss.</p><p>By the end of 2025, the book value of the company's inventory goods after provision is 269 million yuan. If the subsequent market promotion of nine-valent HPV vaccine is less than expected, or the inventory clearing progress of bivalent HPV vaccine slows down, the company will still have the risk of continuous provision for asset impairment in the future, further squeezing profit margins.</p><p>In terms of accounts receivable, the company's accounts and bills receivable amounted to RMB1.625 billion at the end of 2025. From 2021 to 2025, the Company's accounts receivable turnover days were 92.26 days, 99.7 days, 226.37 days, 403.36 days and 361.92 days, respectively. Although it was shortened in 2025, it was still at a historically high level, and the capital turnover efficiency was not good.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset depreciation, in 2025, the company will invest 350 million yuan in fixed assets to expand the production of nine-valent HPV vaccine and update diagnostic equipment, and the balance of fixed assets will reach 2.87 billion yuan. However, the current capacity utilization rate of vaccine and diagnostic business is insufficient, a large number of fixed assets are idle, and the depreciation expenses of fixed assets will increase by 14.7% year-on-year to 263 million yuan.</p><p>Overall, Wantai Biotech's huge loss in 2025 is the result of the concentrated outbreak of multiple problems such as the loss of power in its core business, market response errors, and improper asset management and control. It once relied on a single vaccine product to create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">brilliant</a>The curtain had already ended. At present, problems such as commercialization of nine-valent vaccines and inventory resolution remain to be solved, and it remains to be seen whether the company can get rid of operating difficulties.</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information and accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP</div></div>Editor-in-Charge: Company Watch</p><p></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/observe/2026-04-23/doc-inhvnnxa8699316.shtml\">新浪证券</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"603392":"万泰生物","LU1981816686.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN MULTI FACTOR EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1589":"北水核心资产","09633":"农夫山泉","BK1200":"软饮料","BK0239":"医药制造","IPOS":"Renaissance International IPO ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/observe/2026-04-23/doc-inhvnnxa8699316.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2629886124","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　曾凭借国产二价HPV疫苗馨可宁一战成名，登顶A股生物疫苗板块的万泰生物在2025年交出了上市以来最差成绩单。年报数据显示，公司全年实现营业收入18.19亿元，同比下降18.99%；归母净利润-3.98亿元，同比大幅下滑474.89%，历史首次出现年度净亏损。扣除非经常性损益后净亏损进一步扩大至6.23亿元，加权平均净资产收益率跌至-3.30%。\n　　从季度经营数据来看，万泰生物的亏损呈现逐季加剧态势，经营企稳信号迟迟未现。一季度公司亏损5277.69万元，二季度亏损规模扩大至9143.54万元，三季度短暂收窄至2879.09万元，四季度单季亏损却飙升至2.25亿元，单季度亏损额超过前三季度亏损总和。与此同时，库存积压、资金使用率降低、产能闲置、资产减值等风险集中显现，不仅大幅拖累当期利润，更成为后续经营的潜在包袱。\n　　产品、政策、市场三重挤压 两大主营业务双双失守\n　　万泰生物业绩巨亏的核心原因，是两大主营业务同时陷入衰退，昔日利润奶牛的疫苗业务彻底失势，而作为稳定器的体外诊断业务亦无力托底，双重压力下公司失去业绩基本盘。\n　　具体而言，疫苗业务曾是万泰生物绝对的业绩核心，2022年凭借二价HPV疫苗馨可宁贡献超85亿元营收，占总营收比重超70%，毛利率长期维持在85%以上，成为公司高速增长的核心动力。\n　　但从2023年开始，疫苗业务急转直下，2024年营收已暴跌至6亿元左右，2025年颓势进一步加剧，报告期内疫苗业务营收4.57亿元，同比下滑24.63%，毛利率更是暴跌超43个百分点。\n　　疫苗业务的溃败，是政策、市场、产品三重因素叠加的结果。政策层面，2023年起全国多地启动HPV疫苗集中带量采购，二价HPV疫苗成为集采重点对象，万泰生物馨可宁中标价格从单支329元暴跌至30元左右，降价幅度超90%。价格的断崖式下跌导致二价疫苗毛利率从巅峰时期的90%以上，暴跌至2025年的不足30%，单支利润几乎归零。\n　　市场层面，双重竞争压力让二价疫苗需求显著萎缩。一方面，沃森生物等国产二价HPV疫苗陆续上市，以更低价格参与市场竞争，进一步瓜分存量市场，万泰生物失去价格优势；另一方面，2023年进口九价HPV疫苗获批适用年龄从16-26岁扩至9-45岁，覆盖二价疫苗核心目标人群，消费者优先选择防护范围更广的九价疫苗，导致二价疫苗市场需求出现断崖式下滑。\n　　而被公司视为翻盘希望的国产首款九价HPV疫苗馨可宁9，2025年6月获批上市后商业化表现远不及预期。为快速抢占市场，馨可宁9定价仅499元/支，为进口默沙东九价疫苗的约38%，但低价策略并未带来销量爆发，公司全年疫苗业务收入不足5亿元，创历史新低，二价疫苗的业绩缺口仍难以弥补。\n\n　　与此同时，国产九价疫苗赛道已变得极度拥挤，康乐卫士、博唯生物等国产九价疫苗已进入临床三期，预计2026年陆续上市，未来馨可宁9将面临国产竞品与进口产品的双重围剿，市场突围难度较大。\n　　除HPV疫苗外，公司水痘、带状疱疹等传统疫苗营收规模不足亿元，20价肺炎、十一价HPV等在研产品尚处临床早期，预计2030年后才能上市贡献营收，疫苗业务短期内无新的业绩增长点，转暖无望。\n　　作为曾经的业绩稳定器，体外诊断业务在2025年同样表现低迷，未能对冲疫苗业务的亏损。2025年，万泰生物体外诊断业务实现营收13.08亿元，同比下降18.65%，毛利率较2024年下滑7.98个百分点至56.99%，营收与盈利双降。\n　　减值、应收、折旧三座大山 未来经营包袱沉重\n　　在核心业务溃败的同时，万泰生物在资产运营与财务管理层面同样暴露出多重严重问题，现金流承压、库存积压、应收账款高企、资产闲置减值等风险持续发酵，不仅加剧了2025年的亏损，更成为2026年及未来经营的潜在包袱。\n　　其中，存货减值成为吞噬公司利润的重要因素，疫苗产品的库存压力尚未完全释放。2025年末公司存货余额同比下降30.97%至2165.84万支，但主要是二价HPV疫苗被动清理与大额计提减值的结果。\n　　2025年公司资产减值损失达2.15亿元，几乎全部来自存货与合同资产减值，其中绝大部分为二价HPV疫苗的减值计提，该部分减值损失占公司当期亏损额的54%，是导致公司由盈转亏的重要推手。\n　　截至2025年末，公司计提后库存商品账面价值为2.69亿元，若后续九价HPV疫苗市场推广不及预期，或二价HPV疫苗库存清理进度放缓，公司未来仍存在持续计提资产减值的风险，进一步挤压利润空间。\n　　应收账款方面，2025年末公司应收账款及票据为16.25亿元。2021年-2025年，公司应收账款周转天数分别为92.26天、99.7天、226.37天、403.36天、361.92天，2025年虽有所缩短但仍处于历史高位，资金周转效率欠佳。\n　　固定资产折旧方面，2025年公司为九价HPV疫苗扩产、诊断设备更新，新增固定资产投资3.5亿元，固定资产余额达28.7亿元，但当前疫苗、诊断业务产能利用率不足，大量固定资产闲置，固定资产折旧费用同比增长14.7%至2.63亿元。\n　　整体来看，万泰生物2025年的巨亏是核心业务失势、市场应对失误、资产管控失当等多重问题集中爆发的结果，曾经依靠单一疫苗产品缔造的辉煌已然落幕。眼下，九价疫苗商业化、化解库存等问题仍待解决，公司能否摆脱经营困境仍有待观察。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：公司观察","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"603392":1.5,"09633":1.5,"IPOS":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":556674572906904,"gmtCreate":1776933780176,"gmtModify":1776933783005,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/556674572906904","repostId":"2629886124","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629886124","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776932700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2629886124?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-23 16:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629886124","media":"新浪证券","summary":"　　曾凭借国产二价HPV疫苗馨可宁一战成名，登顶A股生物疫苗板块的万泰生物在2025年交出了上市以来最差成绩单。年报数据显示，公司全年实现营业收入18.19亿元，同比下降18.99%；归母净利润-3.98亿元，同比大幅下滑474.89%，历史首次出现年度净亏损。扣除非经常性损益后净亏损进一步扩大至6.23亿元，加权平均净资产收益率跌至-3.30%。　　从季度经营数据来看，万泰生物的亏损呈现逐季加剧态势，经营企稳信号迟迟未现。","content":"<p><html><body><div>Look at stock trading<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">Golden Qilin</a>Analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities!</p><p>Once became famous in World War I with the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin and reached the top of A shares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000504\">biology</a>of the vaccine sector<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a></span><span></span>In 2025, it handed over its worst report card since going public. According to the annual report data, the company's annual operating income was 1.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.99%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was-398 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 474.89% year-on-year, and the first annual net loss in history. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net loss further expanded to 623 million yuan, and the weighted average return on net assets dropped to-3.30%.</p><p>Judging from the quarterly operating data, Wantai Bio's losses are increasing quarter by quarter, and the signal of operating stabilization has not appeared. In the first quarter, the company's loss was 52,776,900 yuan, the loss scale expanded to 91,435,400 yuan in the second quarter, and it briefly narrowed to 28,790,900 yuan in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the loss in a single quarter soared to 225 million yuan, exceeding the total loss in the first three quarters. At the same time, risks such as inventory backlog, reduced capital utilization rate, idle production capacity and asset impairment are concentrated, which not only greatly drags down the current profit, but also becomes a potential burden for subsequent operations.</p><p>　<strong>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets, two main businesses both lost</strong></p><p>The core reason for the huge loss of Wantai Biological's performance is that its two main businesses fell into recession at the same time. The vaccine business of profitable cows in the past completely lost momentum, and the in vitro diagnosis business as a stabilizer was unable to support the bottom. Under the dual pressure, the company lost its basic performance.</p><p>Specifically, the vaccine business was once the absolute core of Wantai Biological's performance. In 2022, the bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin contributed over 8.5 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for over 70% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin remained above 85% for a long time, becoming the core driving force for the company's rapid growth.</p><p>However, since 2023, the vaccine business took a sharp turn. In 2024, the revenue has plummeted to about 600 million yuan, and the decline has further intensified in 2025. During the reporting period, the revenue of the vaccine business was 457 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.63%, and the gross profit margin plummeted by more than 43 percentage points.</p><p>The collapse of the vaccine business is the result of the superposition of policy, market and product factors. At the policy level, since 2023, centralized procurement of HPV vaccines has been launched in many places across the country, and bivalent HPV vaccines have become the key target of centralized procurement. The winning bid price of Wantai Biotech Cecolin has plummeted from 329 yuan for a single dose to about 30 yuan, with a price reduction of over 90%. The cliff-like decline in prices has caused the gross profit margin of bivalent vaccines to plummet from more than 90% at its peak to less than 30% in 2025, and the profit of a single dose has almost returned to zero.</p><p>At the market level, the dual competitive pressure has significantly shrunk the demand for bivalent vaccines. On the one hand,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a></span><span></span>Waiting for domestic bivalent HPV vaccines to be launched one after another, participating in market competition at a lower price, further dividing the existing market, Wantai Biotech lost its price advantage; On the other hand, in 2023, the approved applicable age of imported nine-valent HPV vaccines will be expanded from 16-26 years old to 9-45 years old, covering the core target population of bivalent vaccines, and consumers will give priority to nine-valent vaccines with wider protection, resulting in a cliff-like decline in the market demand for bivalent vaccines.</p><p>Cecolin 9, the first nine-valent HPV vaccine made in China, which is regarded by the company as the hope of a comeback, has a commercialization performance far below expectations after being approved for listing in June 2025. In order to quickly seize the market, Cecolin 9 is priced at only 499 yuan/piece, which is imported<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>About 38% of the nine-valent vaccine, but the low-price strategy did not bring a sales outbreak. The company's annual vaccine business revenue was less than 500 million yuan, a record low, and the performance gap of bivalent vaccine is still difficult to make up.</p><p><div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/113/w630h283/20260423/7a27-af4cc76d68728ff33b2277a70da63f22.png\"/><span></span></div>At the same time, the domestic nine-valent vaccine track has become extremely crowded,<span>Recreation Guard</span><span></span>Domestic nine-valent vaccines such as Bowei Bio and Bowei Bio have entered the third phase of clinical trials and are expected to be launched one after another in 2026. In the future, Cecolin 9 will face the double encirclement and suppression of domestic competing products and imported products, making it difficult to break through the market.</p><p>In addition to HPV vaccines, the revenue scale of the company's traditional vaccines such as chickenpox and herpes zoster is less than 100 million yuan. Products under development such as 20-valent pneumonia and 11-valent HPV are still in the early clinical stage and are expected to be listed after 2030 to contribute revenue. The vaccine business has no new performance growth points in the short term, and there is no hope of warming up.</p><p>As a former performance stabilizer, the in vitro diagnostics business also performed sluggishly in 2025, failing to hedge the loss of the vaccine business. In 2025, Wantai Biotech's in vitro diagnostic business achieved revenue of 1.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.65%, and its gross profit margin decreased by 7.98 percentage points to 56.99% compared with 2024, with both revenue and profit decreasing.</p><p>　　<strong>Impairment, receivables and depreciation are heavy burdens for future operations</strong></p><p>At the same time as the core business collapsed, Wantai Bio also exposed multiple serious problems in asset operation and financial management. Risks such as cash flow pressure, inventory backlog, high accounts receivable, and idle asset impairment continued to ferment, which not only aggravated the losses in 2025, but also became a potential burden for 2026 and future operations.</p><p>Among them, inventory impairment has become an important factor devouring the company's profits, and the inventory pressure of vaccine products has not been fully released. At the end of 2025, the company's inventory balance decreased by 30.97% year-on-year to 21.6584 million units, but it was mainly the result of passive cleanup of bivalent HPV vaccine and large provision for impairment.</p><p>In 2025, the company's asset impairment loss reached 215 million yuan, almost all of which came from the impairment of inventory and contract assets, most of which were the impairment provision of bivalent HPV vaccine. This part of the impairment loss accounted for 54% of the company's current loss, which was an important driver of the company's turn from profit to loss.</p><p>By the end of 2025, the book value of the company's inventory goods after provision is 269 million yuan. If the subsequent market promotion of nine-valent HPV vaccine is less than expected, or the inventory clearing progress of bivalent HPV vaccine slows down, the company will still have the risk of continuous provision for asset impairment in the future, further squeezing profit margins.</p><p>In terms of accounts receivable, the company's accounts and bills receivable amounted to RMB1.625 billion at the end of 2025. From 2021 to 2025, the Company's accounts receivable turnover days were 92.26 days, 99.7 days, 226.37 days, 403.36 days and 361.92 days, respectively. Although it was shortened in 2025, it was still at a historically high level, and the capital turnover efficiency was not good.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset depreciation, in 2025, the company will invest 350 million yuan in fixed assets to expand the production of nine-valent HPV vaccine and update diagnostic equipment, and the balance of fixed assets will reach 2.87 billion yuan. However, the current capacity utilization rate of vaccine and diagnostic business is insufficient, a large number of fixed assets are idle, and the depreciation expenses of fixed assets will increase by 14.7% year-on-year to 263 million yuan.</p><p>Overall, Wantai Biotech's huge loss in 2025 is the result of the concentrated outbreak of multiple problems such as the loss of power in its core business, market response errors, and improper asset management and control. It once relied on a single vaccine product to create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">brilliant</a>The curtain had already ended. At present, problems such as commercialization of nine-valent vaccines and inventory resolution remain to be solved, and it remains to be seen whether the company can get rid of operating difficulties.</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information and accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP</div></div>Editor-in-Charge: Company Watch</p><p></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTriple squeeze of products, policies and markets Wantai Biotech suffered its first loss since listing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪证券</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-04-23 16:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>Look at stock trading<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">Golden Qilin</a>Analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities!</p><p>Once became famous in World War I with the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin and reached the top of A shares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000504\">biology</a>of the vaccine sector<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a></span><span></span>In 2025, it handed over its worst report card since going public. According to the annual report data, the company's annual operating income was 1.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.99%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was-398 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 474.89% year-on-year, and the first annual net loss in history. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net loss further expanded to 623 million yuan, and the weighted average return on net assets dropped to-3.30%.</p><p>Judging from the quarterly operating data, Wantai Bio's losses are increasing quarter by quarter, and the signal of operating stabilization has not appeared. In the first quarter, the company's loss was 52,776,900 yuan, the loss scale expanded to 91,435,400 yuan in the second quarter, and it briefly narrowed to 28,790,900 yuan in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the loss in a single quarter soared to 225 million yuan, exceeding the total loss in the first three quarters. At the same time, risks such as inventory backlog, reduced capital utilization rate, idle production capacity and asset impairment are concentrated, which not only greatly drags down the current profit, but also becomes a potential burden for subsequent operations.</p><p>　<strong>Triple squeeze of products, policies and markets, two main businesses both lost</strong></p><p>The core reason for the huge loss of Wantai Biological's performance is that its two main businesses fell into recession at the same time. The vaccine business of profitable cows in the past completely lost momentum, and the in vitro diagnosis business as a stabilizer was unable to support the bottom. Under the dual pressure, the company lost its basic performance.</p><p>Specifically, the vaccine business was once the absolute core of Wantai Biological's performance. In 2022, the bivalent HPV vaccine Cecolin contributed over 8.5 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for over 70% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin remained above 85% for a long time, becoming the core driving force for the company's rapid growth.</p><p>However, since 2023, the vaccine business took a sharp turn. In 2024, the revenue has plummeted to about 600 million yuan, and the decline has further intensified in 2025. During the reporting period, the revenue of the vaccine business was 457 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.63%, and the gross profit margin plummeted by more than 43 percentage points.</p><p>The collapse of the vaccine business is the result of the superposition of policy, market and product factors. At the policy level, since 2023, centralized procurement of HPV vaccines has been launched in many places across the country, and bivalent HPV vaccines have become the key target of centralized procurement. The winning bid price of Wantai Biotech Cecolin has plummeted from 329 yuan for a single dose to about 30 yuan, with a price reduction of over 90%. The cliff-like decline in prices has caused the gross profit margin of bivalent vaccines to plummet from more than 90% at its peak to less than 30% in 2025, and the profit of a single dose has almost returned to zero.</p><p>At the market level, the dual competitive pressure has significantly shrunk the demand for bivalent vaccines. On the one hand,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a></span><span></span>Waiting for domestic bivalent HPV vaccines to be launched one after another, participating in market competition at a lower price, further dividing the existing market, Wantai Biotech lost its price advantage; On the other hand, in 2023, the approved applicable age of imported nine-valent HPV vaccines will be expanded from 16-26 years old to 9-45 years old, covering the core target population of bivalent vaccines, and consumers will give priority to nine-valent vaccines with wider protection, resulting in a cliff-like decline in the market demand for bivalent vaccines.</p><p>Cecolin 9, the first nine-valent HPV vaccine made in China, which is regarded by the company as the hope of a comeback, has a commercialization performance far below expectations after being approved for listing in June 2025. In order to quickly seize the market, Cecolin 9 is priced at only 499 yuan/piece, which is imported<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>About 38% of the nine-valent vaccine, but the low-price strategy did not bring a sales outbreak. The company's annual vaccine business revenue was less than 500 million yuan, a record low, and the performance gap of bivalent vaccine is still difficult to make up.</p><p><div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/113/w630h283/20260423/7a27-af4cc76d68728ff33b2277a70da63f22.png\"/><span></span></div>At the same time, the domestic nine-valent vaccine track has become extremely crowded,<span>Recreation Guard</span><span></span>Domestic nine-valent vaccines such as Bowei Bio and Bowei Bio have entered the third phase of clinical trials and are expected to be launched one after another in 2026. In the future, Cecolin 9 will face the double encirclement and suppression of domestic competing products and imported products, making it difficult to break through the market.</p><p>In addition to HPV vaccines, the revenue scale of the company's traditional vaccines such as chickenpox and herpes zoster is less than 100 million yuan. Products under development such as 20-valent pneumonia and 11-valent HPV are still in the early clinical stage and are expected to be listed after 2030 to contribute revenue. The vaccine business has no new performance growth points in the short term, and there is no hope of warming up.</p><p>As a former performance stabilizer, the in vitro diagnostics business also performed sluggishly in 2025, failing to hedge the loss of the vaccine business. In 2025, Wantai Biotech's in vitro diagnostic business achieved revenue of 1.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.65%, and its gross profit margin decreased by 7.98 percentage points to 56.99% compared with 2024, with both revenue and profit decreasing.</p><p>　　<strong>Impairment, receivables and depreciation are heavy burdens for future operations</strong></p><p>At the same time as the core business collapsed, Wantai Bio also exposed multiple serious problems in asset operation and financial management. Risks such as cash flow pressure, inventory backlog, high accounts receivable, and idle asset impairment continued to ferment, which not only aggravated the losses in 2025, but also became a potential burden for 2026 and future operations.</p><p>Among them, inventory impairment has become an important factor devouring the company's profits, and the inventory pressure of vaccine products has not been fully released. At the end of 2025, the company's inventory balance decreased by 30.97% year-on-year to 21.6584 million units, but it was mainly the result of passive cleanup of bivalent HPV vaccine and large provision for impairment.</p><p>In 2025, the company's asset impairment loss reached 215 million yuan, almost all of which came from the impairment of inventory and contract assets, most of which were the impairment provision of bivalent HPV vaccine. This part of the impairment loss accounted for 54% of the company's current loss, which was an important driver of the company's turn from profit to loss.</p><p>By the end of 2025, the book value of the company's inventory goods after provision is 269 million yuan. If the subsequent market promotion of nine-valent HPV vaccine is less than expected, or the inventory clearing progress of bivalent HPV vaccine slows down, the company will still have the risk of continuous provision for asset impairment in the future, further squeezing profit margins.</p><p>In terms of accounts receivable, the company's accounts and bills receivable amounted to RMB1.625 billion at the end of 2025. From 2021 to 2025, the Company's accounts receivable turnover days were 92.26 days, 99.7 days, 226.37 days, 403.36 days and 361.92 days, respectively. Although it was shortened in 2025, it was still at a historically high level, and the capital turnover efficiency was not good.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset depreciation, in 2025, the company will invest 350 million yuan in fixed assets to expand the production of nine-valent HPV vaccine and update diagnostic equipment, and the balance of fixed assets will reach 2.87 billion yuan. However, the current capacity utilization rate of vaccine and diagnostic business is insufficient, a large number of fixed assets are idle, and the depreciation expenses of fixed assets will increase by 14.7% year-on-year to 263 million yuan.</p><p>Overall, Wantai Biotech's huge loss in 2025 is the result of the concentrated outbreak of multiple problems such as the loss of power in its core business, market response errors, and improper asset management and control. It once relied on a single vaccine product to create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">brilliant</a>The curtain had already ended. At present, problems such as commercialization of nine-valent vaccines and inventory resolution remain to be solved, and it remains to be seen whether the company can get rid of operating difficulties.</p><p><div></div><div><div><img src=\"\"/></div><div>Massive information and accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP</div></div>Editor-in-Charge: Company Watch</p><p></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/observe/2026-04-23/doc-inhvnnxa8699316.shtml\">新浪证券</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"603392":"万泰生物","LU1981816686.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN MULTI FACTOR EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1589":"北水核心资产","09633":"农夫山泉","BK1200":"软饮料","BK0239":"医药制造","IPOS":"Renaissance International IPO ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/observe/2026-04-23/doc-inhvnnxa8699316.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2629886124","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　曾凭借国产二价HPV疫苗馨可宁一战成名，登顶A股生物疫苗板块的万泰生物在2025年交出了上市以来最差成绩单。年报数据显示，公司全年实现营业收入18.19亿元，同比下降18.99%；归母净利润-3.98亿元，同比大幅下滑474.89%，历史首次出现年度净亏损。扣除非经常性损益后净亏损进一步扩大至6.23亿元，加权平均净资产收益率跌至-3.30%。\n　　从季度经营数据来看，万泰生物的亏损呈现逐季加剧态势，经营企稳信号迟迟未现。一季度公司亏损5277.69万元，二季度亏损规模扩大至9143.54万元，三季度短暂收窄至2879.09万元，四季度单季亏损却飙升至2.25亿元，单季度亏损额超过前三季度亏损总和。与此同时，库存积压、资金使用率降低、产能闲置、资产减值等风险集中显现，不仅大幅拖累当期利润，更成为后续经营的潜在包袱。\n　　产品、政策、市场三重挤压 两大主营业务双双失守\n　　万泰生物业绩巨亏的核心原因，是两大主营业务同时陷入衰退，昔日利润奶牛的疫苗业务彻底失势，而作为稳定器的体外诊断业务亦无力托底，双重压力下公司失去业绩基本盘。\n　　具体而言，疫苗业务曾是万泰生物绝对的业绩核心，2022年凭借二价HPV疫苗馨可宁贡献超85亿元营收，占总营收比重超70%，毛利率长期维持在85%以上，成为公司高速增长的核心动力。\n　　但从2023年开始，疫苗业务急转直下，2024年营收已暴跌至6亿元左右，2025年颓势进一步加剧，报告期内疫苗业务营收4.57亿元，同比下滑24.63%，毛利率更是暴跌超43个百分点。\n　　疫苗业务的溃败，是政策、市场、产品三重因素叠加的结果。政策层面，2023年起全国多地启动HPV疫苗集中带量采购，二价HPV疫苗成为集采重点对象，万泰生物馨可宁中标价格从单支329元暴跌至30元左右，降价幅度超90%。价格的断崖式下跌导致二价疫苗毛利率从巅峰时期的90%以上，暴跌至2025年的不足30%，单支利润几乎归零。\n　　市场层面，双重竞争压力让二价疫苗需求显著萎缩。一方面，沃森生物等国产二价HPV疫苗陆续上市，以更低价格参与市场竞争，进一步瓜分存量市场，万泰生物失去价格优势；另一方面，2023年进口九价HPV疫苗获批适用年龄从16-26岁扩至9-45岁，覆盖二价疫苗核心目标人群，消费者优先选择防护范围更广的九价疫苗，导致二价疫苗市场需求出现断崖式下滑。\n　　而被公司视为翻盘希望的国产首款九价HPV疫苗馨可宁9，2025年6月获批上市后商业化表现远不及预期。为快速抢占市场，馨可宁9定价仅499元/支，为进口默沙东九价疫苗的约38%，但低价策略并未带来销量爆发，公司全年疫苗业务收入不足5亿元，创历史新低，二价疫苗的业绩缺口仍难以弥补。\n\n　　与此同时，国产九价疫苗赛道已变得极度拥挤，康乐卫士、博唯生物等国产九价疫苗已进入临床三期，预计2026年陆续上市，未来馨可宁9将面临国产竞品与进口产品的双重围剿，市场突围难度较大。\n　　除HPV疫苗外，公司水痘、带状疱疹等传统疫苗营收规模不足亿元，20价肺炎、十一价HPV等在研产品尚处临床早期，预计2030年后才能上市贡献营收，疫苗业务短期内无新的业绩增长点，转暖无望。\n　　作为曾经的业绩稳定器，体外诊断业务在2025年同样表现低迷，未能对冲疫苗业务的亏损。2025年，万泰生物体外诊断业务实现营收13.08亿元，同比下降18.65%，毛利率较2024年下滑7.98个百分点至56.99%，营收与盈利双降。\n　　减值、应收、折旧三座大山 未来经营包袱沉重\n　　在核心业务溃败的同时，万泰生物在资产运营与财务管理层面同样暴露出多重严重问题，现金流承压、库存积压、应收账款高企、资产闲置减值等风险持续发酵，不仅加剧了2025年的亏损，更成为2026年及未来经营的潜在包袱。\n　　其中，存货减值成为吞噬公司利润的重要因素，疫苗产品的库存压力尚未完全释放。2025年末公司存货余额同比下降30.97%至2165.84万支，但主要是二价HPV疫苗被动清理与大额计提减值的结果。\n　　2025年公司资产减值损失达2.15亿元，几乎全部来自存货与合同资产减值，其中绝大部分为二价HPV疫苗的减值计提，该部分减值损失占公司当期亏损额的54%，是导致公司由盈转亏的重要推手。\n　　截至2025年末，公司计提后库存商品账面价值为2.69亿元，若后续九价HPV疫苗市场推广不及预期，或二价HPV疫苗库存清理进度放缓，公司未来仍存在持续计提资产减值的风险，进一步挤压利润空间。\n　　应收账款方面，2025年末公司应收账款及票据为16.25亿元。2021年-2025年，公司应收账款周转天数分别为92.26天、99.7天、226.37天、403.36天、361.92天，2025年虽有所缩短但仍处于历史高位，资金周转效率欠佳。\n　　固定资产折旧方面，2025年公司为九价HPV疫苗扩产、诊断设备更新，新增固定资产投资3.5亿元，固定资产余额达28.7亿元，但当前疫苗、诊断业务产能利用率不足，大量固定资产闲置，固定资产折旧费用同比增长14.7%至2.63亿元。\n　　整体来看，万泰生物2025年的巨亏是核心业务失势、市场应对失误、资产管控失当等多重问题集中爆发的结果，曾经依靠单一疫苗产品缔造的辉煌已然落幕。眼下，九价疫苗商业化、化解库存等问题仍待解决，公司能否摆脱经营困境仍有待观察。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：公司观察","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"603392":1.5,"09633":1.5,"IPOS":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":556673328955512,"gmtCreate":1776933569013,"gmtModify":1776933572452,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone11","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c91a1ed391cc117439fbfcc66e756bec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"xuexi","listText":"xuexi","text":"xuexi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/556673328955512","repostId":"2629885438","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629885438","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"路透中文","home_visible":1,"media_name":"路透中文","id":"1098195322","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1776931980,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2629885438?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-23 16:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"BUZZ-Brokerage Opinion: Tesla Spending Surges, Earnings Cashout Period Pushed Back, Analysts Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629885438","media":"路透中文","summary":"** 摩根士丹利 表示，虽然特斯拉的巨额投资对确保其在自动驾驶领域的长期领先地位至关重要，但关键物理人工智能项目的支出增加和验证驱动的推出可能会减缓进展，并限制近期的上行空间。由于自动化翻译可能有误，或未能包含所需语境，路透不保证自动化翻译文本的准确性，仅是为了便利读者而提供自动化翻译。对于因为使用自动化翻译功能而造成的任何损害或损失，路透不承担任何责任。","content":"<p><html xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\"><head><title>Buzz-Brokerage Opinion: Analysts Says,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Earnings Cashout Period Pushed Back as Expenses Surge</title></head><body><span>April 23</span><span>-</span>** Tesla<span>TSLA.O</span>Significantly increased the full-year spending plan (<span>link</span>), reaching more than $25 billion, and CEO Elon Musk has invested money in artificial intelligence,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>And chips-he said these moves are \"very reasonable\" and help build a huge future revenue stream.</p><p>** Shares fell 1.8% to $380.52 premarket</p><p>Work Progress</p><p>** Katherine, Research Director, XTB-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>Kathleen Brooks said that while robotaxis are expected to drive Tesla's future revenue growth, Tesla still relies heavily on its electric vehicle business, and \"this is where Tesla's weakness lies\".</p><p>**<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>(\"equal weight,\" price target: $415) said that while Tesla's hefty investment is critical to securing its long-term leadership in autonomous driving, increased spending on key physical AI projects and validation-driven rollouts could slow progress and limit near-term upside.</p><p>** TD Cowen (\"Buy\", price target: $490) said the company's results set the stage for a gradual improvement in sentiment throughout the year as the company entered a period of major catalysts for robots and autonomous vehicles.</p><p>** Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: \"While progress is being made, last night's comments are another example of a further deviation from the target\".</p><p>(For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of the automated translated text because the automated translation may be incorrect or fail to include the required context, and provides automated translation only for the convenience of readers. Reuters accepts no responsibility for any damage or loss caused by the use of the automated translation function.)</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BUZZ-Brokerage Opinion: Tesla Spending Surges, Earnings Cashout Period Pushed Back, Analysts Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBUZZ-Brokerage Opinion: Tesla Spending Surges, Earnings Cashout Period Pushed Back, Analysts Says\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1098195322\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">路透中文 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-23 16:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\"><head><title>Buzz-Brokerage Opinion: Analysts Says,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Earnings Cashout Period Pushed Back as Expenses Surge</title></head><body><span>April 23</span><span>-</span>** Tesla<span>TSLA.O</span>Significantly increased the full-year spending plan (<span>link</span>), reaching more than $25 billion, and CEO Elon Musk has invested money in artificial intelligence,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>And chips-he said these moves are \"very reasonable\" and help build a huge future revenue stream.</p><p>** Shares fell 1.8% to $380.52 premarket</p><p>Work Progress</p><p>** Katherine, Research Director, XTB-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>Kathleen Brooks said that while robotaxis are expected to drive Tesla's future revenue growth, Tesla still relies heavily on its electric vehicle business, and \"this is where Tesla's weakness lies\".</p><p>**<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>(\"equal weight,\" price target: $415) said that while Tesla's hefty investment is critical to securing its long-term leadership in autonomous driving, increased spending on key physical AI projects and validation-driven rollouts could slow progress and limit near-term upside.</p><p>** TD Cowen (\"Buy\", price target: $490) said the company's results set the stage for a gradual improvement in sentiment throughout the year as the company entered a period of major catalysts for robots and autonomous vehicles.</p><p>** Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: \"While progress is being made, last night's comments are another example of a further deviation from the target\".</p><p>(For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of the automated translated text because the automated translation may be incorrect or fail to include the required context, and provides automated translation only for the convenience of readers. Reuters accepts no responsibility for any damage or loss caused by the use of the automated translation function.)</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz 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