Ivan84 personal page - To The Moon

Ivan84

Ivan84

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2024-01-14

Gogogogogoggogogogogogogogogog

2024-01-13

ggogogogogogoggogogogogo

2024-01-12

Gogogogog Huat ah gogogogogogog

2024-01-10

Gogogoggogogogogogogoggogogi

2024-01-09

Gogogogogogogogoogoggoogogogogoggo

2024-01-08

Gogogogogogogogogogogoggogogoggo

2024-01-07

Get money get money

2024-01-06

Ggogogogogogogoggogogofofofofofo

2024-01-03

Huat ah gogogogogogog

2023-12-31

Happy new year 2024 Huat ah

2023-12-29

gogogogogogogHuatahgogogogo

2023-11-08

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-11-07

Gogogo good games Huat ah

2023-11-06

Happy games gogogoogo

2023-11-04

Gogogogogogogogo Huat ah

2023-10-30

Gogoggo

@TigerEvents:Join Tiger's Halloween Fun! Win Big!

2023-03-17

K

@YapCo:銀行危機對股市是短空長多

2023-01-10

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Tiger Commentary | How much will the US December CPI growth rate decline?

2022-12-12

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ gogogo

2022-12-12

Gogogogog

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ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/237618078302240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":236087441977560,"gmtCreate":1698671277746,"gmtModify":1698671281818,"author":{"id":"4101990798498780","authorId":"4101990798498780","name":"Ivan84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a70f3b53565de1c2fbff55696f52b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101990798498780","idStr":"4101990798498780"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogoggo","listText":"Gogoggo","text":"Gogoggo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/236087441977560","repostId":"234641357262864","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":234641357262864,"gmtCreate":1698311576543,"gmtModify":1745315265346,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d95d339b1f41503e283097a33ab3ba9d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Join Tiger's Halloween Fun! Win Big!","htmlText":"Hey there, spooky squad! 🎃Halloween is coming, and it's time for some fang-tastic fun with our new game - Trick Or Trade! Get ready for some fun, and earn points to win a USD 100 stock voucher and AAPL stock!*In this thrilling game, you'll have just 60 seconds to fend off a gang of mischievous Halloween spirits. It's your job to give them a fright and chase them away with a tap – the more, the merrier!Now, here's the twist: each ghostly friend will require different taps and will reward you with various points.Airy the Apparition - Just one tap, and poof, they vanish. Spooktacularly easy!Bubbles the Water Pixie - Disappears with zero taps - A true magic trick!Rocky the Earth Spirit - You'll need to tap twice to send it packing. He's grounded, you see.Flicker the Embergeist - Another one-ta","listText":"Hey there, spooky squad! 🎃Halloween is coming, and it's time for some fang-tastic fun with our new game - Trick Or Trade! Get ready for some fun, and earn points to win a USD 100 stock voucher and AAPL stock!*In this thrilling game, you'll have just 60 seconds to fend off a gang of mischievous Halloween spirits. It's your job to give them a fright and chase them away with a tap – the more, the merrier!Now, here's the twist: each ghostly friend will require different taps and will reward you with various points.Airy the Apparition - Just one tap, and poof, they vanish. Spooktacularly easy!Bubbles the Water Pixie - Disappears with zero taps - A true magic trick!Rocky the Earth Spirit - You'll need to tap twice to send it packing. He's grounded, you see.Flicker the Embergeist - Another one-ta","text":"Hey there, spooky squad! 🎃Halloween is coming, and it's time for some fang-tastic fun with our new game - Trick Or Trade! Get ready for some fun, and earn points to win a USD 100 stock voucher and AAPL stock!*In this thrilling game, you'll have just 60 seconds to fend off a gang of mischievous Halloween spirits. It's your job to give them a fright and chase them away with a tap – the more, the merrier!Now, here's the twist: each ghostly friend will require different taps and will reward you with various points.Airy the Apparition - Just one tap, and poof, they vanish. Spooktacularly easy!Bubbles the Water Pixie - Disappears with zero taps - A true magic trick!Rocky the Earth Spirit - You'll need to tap twice to send it packing. He's grounded, you see.Flicker the Embergeist - Another one-ta","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad478b709732d53302c395a52fa1c8e1","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/234641357262864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943916749,"gmtCreate":1679034766482,"gmtModify":1679034769094,"author":{"id":"4101990798498780","authorId":"4101990798498780","name":"Ivan84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a70f3b53565de1c2fbff55696f52b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101990798498780","idStr":"4101990798498780"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943916749","repostId":"9943918510","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943918510,"gmtCreate":1679033751231,"gmtModify":1679033756513,"author":{"id":"3579824067079527","authorId":"3579824067079527","name":"YapCo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbcd31d99629b295afcf4813c7296c9e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579824067079527","idStr":"3579824067079527"},"themes":[],"title":"銀行危機對股市是短空長多","htmlText":"銀行危機就像做心臟搭橋手術。 短期你要承受手術的痛苦，但痛苦過後你就有全新的血管幫你工作，生命可以延續下去。 如果不做手術，血管塞着着你就game over了。 這就是短空長多的邏輯。 ＃銀行危機對股市是短空長多 ＃不能直接講銀行危機對股市是利好 ＃要有邏輯層層推進的腦袋","listText":"銀行危機就像做心臟搭橋手術。 短期你要承受手術的痛苦，但痛苦過後你就有全新的血管幫你工作，生命可以延續下去。 如果不做手術，血管塞着着你就game over了。 這就是短空長多的邏輯。 ＃銀行危機對股市是短空長多 ＃不能直接講銀行危機對股市是利好 ＃要有邏輯層層推進的腦袋","text":"銀行危機就像做心臟搭橋手術。 短期你要承受手術的痛苦，但痛苦過後你就有全新的血管幫你工作，生命可以延續下去。 如果不做手術，血管塞着着你就game over了。 這就是短空長多的邏輯。 ＃銀行危機對股市是短空長多 ＃不能直接講銀行危機對股市是利好 ＃要有邏輯層層推進的腦袋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943918510","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951049400,"gmtCreate":1673364240601,"gmtModify":1676538824925,"author":{"id":"4101990798498780","authorId":"4101990798498780","name":"Ivan84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a70f3b53565de1c2fbff55696f52b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101990798498780","idStr":"4101990798498780"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951049400","repostId":"1185461473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185461473","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673358951,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185461473?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-10 21:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Commentary | How much will the US December CPI growth rate decline?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185461473","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"周四的数字不会难看。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>December CPI forecast</b></p><p>Since last Friday, market trading has shown clear macroeconomic signs. What does it mean that market trading has very obvious macroeconomic signs? That is, the rise and fall of the stock market has no logic, but the trading logic of other assets is very strong. When the stock market suddenly rises or falls, it coincides with drastic changes in the prices of other macroeconomic assets.</p><p>In order of importance, the current decisive factor for the US rate hike resolution is \"<b>CPI data > Powell's speech at a certain event > Speeches by other Federal Reserve members at a certain event > FOMC meeting</b>”。 The least interesting part was the FOMC meeting, but of course I had to watch it because I was afraid the Fed would drop a landmine.</p><p>The US CPI data for December has not yet been released, but the EU CPI data has. According to Bloomberg data, the EU's CPI data for December fell further from its high level. The chart below shows the CPI of the United States (blue line) and the European Union (white line), which are very closely related. Attentive observers will notice that the EU's CPI seems to have risen and fallen later than the US's, and the core reason for this lies in the energy sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da9c1b458f4ae27c6343845d3c362a0\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The chart below shows the growth rate of the energy component of the US CPI, which peaked in June last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4178d5d5316c92b4cc480c2901621104\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the energy component of the EU CPI only began to decline last October. This difference also aligns with common sense: the United States is more energy independent, while the European Union is more energy dependent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c7e4429e60cbcb22e9dd75ddad726c\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The further decline in the EU's CPI in December suggests that the US will also fall back. So what exactly was the US CPI in December? I'll make an estimate today.</p><p>The first part is energy. The year-on-year growth in November was still 13%, but based on the average price of gasoline, the year-on-year growth in December will be negative. In other words, gasoline prices in December 2022 were cheaper than those in December 2021, with a year-on-year growth of about -1%. Considering that there are also services in the energy sector, prices are somewhat sticky, and the year-on-year growth rate for energy is only about 3%. The chart below shows gasoline prices in the United States; the red box indicates December.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02408072b8cc9d2d908fb63026ce78fe\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The second part is food (the chart below shows the food index), which is a part where inflation is relatively stubborn, and the month-on-month rate of inflation is currently starting to slow down. Let's do some math here. Using the month-on-month growth rate in November to estimate the food index for December, the year-on-year growth rate for food in December is 10%, which is similar to the year-on-year growth rate of 10.6% for food in November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89390ae120d8aad75d80c8a7084b1f26\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the third part (goods) and the fourth part (services), similar treatment methods are adopted as for food. Year-on-year growth in goods is expected to be 2%, down from 3.7% in November; Services will grow by 7% year-on-year, slightly higher than November's 6.8%. The decline in commodity prices is obvious to all, so the actual price may be lower than 2%. The year-on-year growth in services remains sticky, with rent contributing the most. Based on current experience, rents have indeed not declined.</p><p><b>Finally, by applying their respective weight coefficients to the four parts of the forecast, the inflation forecast for December is 6.0%. Currently, the average expectation of Wall Street analysts is 6.5%, and mine is 0.5% lower than theirs.</b>Note that my estimates are actually quite conservative, because the month-on-month growth of food, goods and services has been getting smaller and smaller over the past four months, and I am using the month-on-month growth of November to estimate the number for December, which is very conservative. The chart below shows the indices and month-on-month growth of these three parts over the past four months, with a clear trend of weakening month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241911f59afe4f641417c5dd98836505\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"181\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday's numbers won't look bad.</p><p><i>Disclaimer: This is not a research report and is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice.</i></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Commentary | How much will the US December CPI growth rate decline?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Commentary | How much will the US December CPI growth rate decline?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-10 21:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>December CPI forecast</b></p><p>Since last Friday, market trading has shown clear macroeconomic signs. What does it mean that market trading has very obvious macroeconomic signs? That is, the rise and fall of the stock market has no logic, but the trading logic of other assets is very strong. When the stock market suddenly rises or falls, it coincides with drastic changes in the prices of other macroeconomic assets.</p><p>In order of importance, the current decisive factor for the US rate hike resolution is \"<b>CPI data > Powell's speech at a certain event > Speeches by other Federal Reserve members at a certain event > FOMC meeting</b>”。 The least interesting part was the FOMC meeting, but of course I had to watch it because I was afraid the Fed would drop a landmine.</p><p>The US CPI data for December has not yet been released, but the EU CPI data has. According to Bloomberg data, the EU's CPI data for December fell further from its high level. The chart below shows the CPI of the United States (blue line) and the European Union (white line), which are very closely related. Attentive observers will notice that the EU's CPI seems to have risen and fallen later than the US's, and the core reason for this lies in the energy sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da9c1b458f4ae27c6343845d3c362a0\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The chart below shows the growth rate of the energy component of the US CPI, which peaked in June last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4178d5d5316c92b4cc480c2901621104\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the energy component of the EU CPI only began to decline last October. This difference also aligns with common sense: the United States is more energy independent, while the European Union is more energy dependent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c7e4429e60cbcb22e9dd75ddad726c\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The further decline in the EU's CPI in December suggests that the US will also fall back. So what exactly was the US CPI in December? I'll make an estimate today.</p><p>The first part is energy. The year-on-year growth in November was still 13%, but based on the average price of gasoline, the year-on-year growth in December will be negative. In other words, gasoline prices in December 2022 were cheaper than those in December 2021, with a year-on-year growth of about -1%. Considering that there are also services in the energy sector, prices are somewhat sticky, and the year-on-year growth rate for energy is only about 3%. The chart below shows gasoline prices in the United States; the red box indicates December.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02408072b8cc9d2d908fb63026ce78fe\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The second part is food (the chart below shows the food index), which is a part where inflation is relatively stubborn, and the month-on-month rate of inflation is currently starting to slow down. Let's do some math here. Using the month-on-month growth rate in November to estimate the food index for December, the year-on-year growth rate for food in December is 10%, which is similar to the year-on-year growth rate of 10.6% for food in November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89390ae120d8aad75d80c8a7084b1f26\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the third part (goods) and the fourth part (services), similar treatment methods are adopted as for food. Year-on-year growth in goods is expected to be 2%, down from 3.7% in November; Services will grow by 7% year-on-year, slightly higher than November's 6.8%. The decline in commodity prices is obvious to all, so the actual price may be lower than 2%. The year-on-year growth in services remains sticky, with rent contributing the most. Based on current experience, rents have indeed not declined.</p><p><b>Finally, by applying their respective weight coefficients to the four parts of the forecast, the inflation forecast for December is 6.0%. Currently, the average expectation of Wall Street analysts is 6.5%, and mine is 0.5% lower than theirs.</b>Note that my estimates are actually quite conservative, because the month-on-month growth of food, goods and services has been getting smaller and smaller over the past four months, and I am using the month-on-month growth of November to estimate the number for December, which is very conservative. The chart below shows the indices and month-on-month growth of these three parts over the past four months, with a clear trend of weakening month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241911f59afe4f641417c5dd98836505\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"181\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday's numbers won't look bad.</p><p><i>Disclaimer: This is not a research report and is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice.</i></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df74a3173019df9d7cecb61fc0d78eea","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185461473","content_text":"12月CPI预估从上周五开始，市场的交易有着很明显的宏观迹象。什么叫做市场的交易有着很明显的宏观迹象，就是说股市的上涨下跌没有逻辑可言，但是其它资产的交易逻辑性非常强，而股市突然上涨或者下跌的时候，恰好是其它宏观资产价格剧烈变化的时候。按照重要性排序，现在对于美国加息决议的决定因素是“CPI数据 >鲍威尔在某个场合的讲话 >其他美联储成员在某个场合的讲话 > FOMC会议”。最没有看头的反而是FOMC会议，当然也不得不看，因为害怕美联储会放雷。12月美国的CPI数据还没出来，但是欧盟的CPI数据出来了。根据彭博的数据，欧盟12月的CPI数据进一步高位下降。下图是美国（蓝线）和欧盟（白线）的CPI，两者关系非常紧密。细心的人会发现欧盟CPI冲高回落似乎比美国晚，这里面的核心原因在于能源部分。下图是美国CPI中能源部分的增长率，是去年6月见顶。但是欧盟CPI的能源部分，是去年10月才开始回落。这个差异和常识也相互吻合，美国的能源独立性更强，欧盟的能源依赖性更强。欧盟12月的CPI进一步回落暗示了美国也会回落，那美国12的CPI具体是多少呢？我今天来估算一下。第一个部分是能源，11月的同比增长还是13%，但是根据汽油的平均价格来看，12月的同比增长会是负数，也就是说2022年12月的汽油价格比2021年12月的汽油价格还便宜，大概同比增长是-1%。考虑到能源部分中还有一些服务部分，价格具有一定的粘滞性，能源的同比增长大概只有3%。下图是美国的汽油价格，红框是12月。第二部分是食物（下图是食物的指数），是属于通胀比较顽固的部分，目前通胀的环比开始放缓。这里数学处理一下，沿用11月的环比增幅来估计12月的食物指数，那么12月的食物部分的同比增长是10%，这个和11月的食物同比增长10.6%相近。对于第三部分（商品）和第四部分（服务），均采用和食物类似的处理方式。商品的同比增长将会是2%，低于11月的3.7%；服务的同比增长将会是7%，略微高于11月的6.8%。商品价格的回落有目共睹，所以实际可能比2%更低。服务的同比增长依然具有粘性，这里面房租的贡献最大，从现在的实际感受来看，房租确实没有回落。最后把预估的4部分套上各自的权重系数，那么12月的通胀预估是6.0%。目前华尔街分析师的预期均值是6.5%，我的比他们的预期要低0.5%。注意，我的预估其实都是偏保守，因为食物、商品和服务的环比增长在过去4个月都是越来越小，而我套用的是11月的环比增长来预估12月的数，很保守。下图是这3部分过去4个月的指数以及环比增长，环比变弱的趋势明显。周四的数字不会难看。免责声明：非研究报告，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923660397,"gmtCreate":1670849980220,"gmtModify":1676538445479,"author":{"id":"4101990798498780","authorId":"4101990798498780","name":"Ivan84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a70f3b53565de1c2fbff55696f52b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101990798498780","idStr":"4101990798498780"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>gogogo","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>gogogo","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923660397","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923685149,"gmtCreate":1670849413581,"gmtModify":1676538445358,"author":{"id":"4101990798498780","authorId":"4101990798498780","name":"Ivan84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a70f3b53565de1c2fbff55696f52b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101990798498780","idStr":"4101990798498780"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogogogog","listText":"Gogogogog","text":"Gogogogog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923685149","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9044736691,"gmtCreate":1656814755113,"gmtModify":1676535898479,"author":{"id":"4101990798498780","authorId":"4101990798498780","name":"Ivan84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a70f3b53565de1c2fbff55696f52b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101990798498780","idStr":"4101990798498780"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a>gogo","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a>gogo","text":"$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$gogo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2ea0fb95d90ae7ddd98296457cd238d","width":"1080","height":"3138"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044736691","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097106979,"gmtCreate":1645364127656,"gmtModify":1676534021636,"author":{"id":"4101990798498780","authorId":"4101990798498780","name":"Ivan84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a70f3b53565de1c2fbff55696f52b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101990798498780","idStr":"4101990798498780"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097106979","repostId":"1157712278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157712278","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645065627,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157712278?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on February 21 for Washington's birthday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157712278","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月21日（周一）是美国的华盛顿诞辰纪念日，美国包括股市和债市在内的金融市场将休市一天。2月22日（周二）美股恢复正常交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡照常开市。背景简介：华盛顿诞辰纪念日俗称总统日","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Monday, February 21, marks Washington's birthday in the United States, and U.S. financial markets, including the stock and bond markets, will be closed for the day. U.S. stocks resumed normal trading on Tuesday, February 22.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, UK stocks, Macau stocks, and Singapore stocks remained open as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Washington's birthday is commonly known as President's Day.</p><p>In 1879, a bill passed by the U.S. Congress for the first time decided to list Washington's birthday as a federal holiday. The Monday Holidays Act, which came into effect in 1968, moved Washington's birthday from February 22nd to the third Monday of February. However, including this bill, no law in the United States has yet officially changed the name of \"Washington's Birthday\" to what is now better known as \"President's Day\". The situation among the public is different; a growing number of Americans have designated the third Monday in February as \"Presidents' Day.\"</p><p>Profile of George Washington:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One of the most common portraits of George Washington</p><p>Washington's full name was George Washington (February 22, 1732 – December 14, 1799). He served as Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War from 1775 to 1783. In 1789, he became the first President of the United States (and also the first head of state in the world to be titled \"President\"). In two consecutive presidential elections, he received unanimous support from the entire Electoral College and served as President of the United States until 1797.</p><p>In 1787, he presided over the U.S. Constitutional Convention, which established the basic framework for the current U.S. Constitution. During his two terms in office, he established many American policies and traditions that continue to this day. After his two terms ended, he voluntarily relinquished power and did not renew his term, establishing the tradition that the U.S. president could not serve more than two terms.</p><p>Washington then returned to civilian life and lived in seclusion at the Mount Vernon estate. Because he played the most important role in the American Revolutionary War and the founding of the nation, Washington is often referred to as the Founding Father of the United States. Most American scholars generally rank him alongside Abraham Lincoln and others as one of the greatest presidents in American history.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stocks will be closed on February 21 for Washington's birthday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stocks will be closed on February 21 for Washington's birthday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-17 10:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Monday, February 21, marks Washington's birthday in the United States, and U.S. financial markets, including the stock and bond markets, will be closed for the day. U.S. stocks resumed normal trading on Tuesday, February 22.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, UK stocks, Macau stocks, and Singapore stocks remained open as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Washington's birthday is commonly known as President's Day.</p><p>In 1879, a bill passed by the U.S. Congress for the first time decided to list Washington's birthday as a federal holiday. The Monday Holidays Act, which came into effect in 1968, moved Washington's birthday from February 22nd to the third Monday of February. However, including this bill, no law in the United States has yet officially changed the name of \"Washington's Birthday\" to what is now better known as \"President's Day\". The situation among the public is different; a growing number of Americans have designated the third Monday in February as \"Presidents' Day.\"</p><p>Profile of George Washington:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One of the most common portraits of George Washington</p><p>Washington's full name was George Washington (February 22, 1732 – December 14, 1799). He served as Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War from 1775 to 1783. In 1789, he became the first President of the United States (and also the first head of state in the world to be titled \"President\"). In two consecutive presidential elections, he received unanimous support from the entire Electoral College and served as President of the United States until 1797.</p><p>In 1787, he presided over the U.S. Constitutional Convention, which established the basic framework for the current U.S. Constitution. During his two terms in office, he established many American policies and traditions that continue to this day. After his two terms ended, he voluntarily relinquished power and did not renew his term, establishing the tradition that the U.S. president could not serve more than two terms.</p><p>Washington then returned to civilian life and lived in seclusion at the Mount Vernon estate. Because he played the most important role in the American Revolutionary War and the founding of the nation, Washington is often referred to as the Founding Father of the United States. Most American scholars generally rank him alongside Abraham Lincoln and others as one of the greatest presidents in American history.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157712278","content_text":"2月21日（周一）是美国的华盛顿诞辰纪念日，美国包括股市和债市在内的金融市场将休市一天。2月22日（周二）美股恢复正常交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡照常开市。背景简介：华盛顿诞辰纪念日俗称总统日1879年美国国会通过的一项法案首次决定将华盛顿诞辰列为联邦节日。1968年生效的《周一节假日法》则将华盛顿诞辰纪念日从每年的2月22日移到2月的第3个周一。但是，包括这一法案在内，美国迄今没有任何法律规定将“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”这一名称正式改为现在更为人所知的“总统日”。民间情况则有所不同，越来越多的美国人已将2月的第3个周一称为“总统日”。乔治-华盛顿简介：乔治-华盛顿最为常见的画像之一华盛顿全名乔治-华盛顿（英文George Washington，1732年2月22日-1799年12月14日），1775至1783年美国独立战争时他任大陆军总司令，1789年成为美国第一任总统（同时也成为全世界首位以“总统”为称号的国家元首），在接连两次总统选举中他都获得了全体选举团无异议的一致支持，一直担任美国总统直至1797年。1787年他主持美国制宪会议，制定了现在美国宪法的基本框架。他在两届任期中设立了美国许多延续至今的政策和传统。两届任期结束后，他自愿放弃权力不再续任，确立了美国总统任期不超过两届的传统。此后华盛顿回复平民生活，隐居在弗农山庄园。由于他在美国独立战争和建国过程中扮演了最重要角色，华盛顿通常被称为美国国父。美国多数学者一般将他和亚伯拉罕-林肯等并列为美国历史上最伟大的总统之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040771967,"gmtCreate":1655711200459,"gmtModify":1676535691142,"author":{"id":"4101990798498780","authorId":"4101990798498780","name":"Ivan84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a70f3b53565de1c2fbff55696f52b4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101990798498780","idStr":"4101990798498780"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VFP.SI\">$JCG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS 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