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2022-03-11

😀

Apple's Stock Faces A Steep Sell-Off

2022-04-15

Thanks

Reminder: Holiday Trading Hours during Good Friday and Easter

2022-02-20

Ok

The Smartest Stocks to Buy if the Stock Market Plunges

2022-04-13

[Smile]

Tesla Stock Jumped 1.52% in Premarket Trading

2022-04-03

[Smile]

Tesla shipped record 310,000 cars in Q1, slightly trailing analyst forecasts

2022-05-12

😀

Upstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity

2022-05-12

Hope it recovers

Upstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity

2022-02-27

Hmm

@WallStreet_Tiger:Sharp Reversal in USD, Bonds & Stocks: Is US Really a Safe Haven?

2022-07-17

Ok

Upstart Holdings (UPST) Price Target Cut at Morgan Stanley on 'Cyclical Headwinds'

2022-05-29

Yes buy

Snowflake Stock Melted Over 70% - Is It A Long-Term Buy?

2022-05-17

Up

Upstart: Adding To My Position After Last Week's Bloodbath

2022-03-15

💪

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transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":9072690387,"gmtCreate":1658022682649,"gmtModify":1676536094470,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072690387","repostId":"2251454462","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024048356,"gmtCreate":1653784525275,"gmtModify":1676535339841,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes buy","listText":"Yes buy","text":"Yes buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024048356","repostId":"2238163298","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238163298","pubTimestamp":1653654558,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2238163298?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-27 20:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snowflake Stock Melted Over 70% - Is It A Long-Term Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238163298","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummarySnowflake just reported its Q1 FY23 performance with a beat on the top and bottom line.Althou","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Snowflake just reported its Q1 FY23 performance with a beat on the top and bottom line.</li><li>Although FY23 guidance remained unchanged, management increased markedly its FY29 margin targets.</li><li>The business is already cash-flow positive and has a robust balance sheet to fuel future growth and potential acquisitions.</li><li>This founder-led company has a proven track record of innovation, making it a relevant investment for the long term.</li><li>SNOW has fallen below its 2020 IPO price and is the cheapest it&#39;s ever been, despite beating expectations every quarter since going public.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/445d170b0516abcda967ac205c4fc12c\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>With the Nasdaq close to 30% off its peak, the market continues to be very challenging, particularly for growth stock investors.</p><p>By some measures, it&#39;s been the worst start of the year for stocks since the Great Depression. In addition, the American Association of Individual Investors shared that more than half of individual investors are bearish.</p><p>The market is already assuming the chance of a recession is higher than 50%. Therefore, it leads us to wonder what the impact could be on the growth of software businesses in the near term.</p><p>Jamin Ball, a partner at Altimeter, recently shared how the fundamentals of software stocks were affected during the 2008 Great Recession. His research shows public SaaS companies saw a revenue growth slowdown in 2009 before re-accelerating in 2010.</p><p>With a potential recession and rising interest rates on the horizon, many investors wouldn&#39;t touch fast-growing technology stocks with a ten-foot pole. As a result, many of them are down 40%, 60%, or even 80% from their high.</p><p>And the stock <i>du jour</i>, Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW), is no exception. The share price is now more than 70% off its peak and at an all-time low after reporting Q1 FY23.</p><p>Cloud software valuations have come down toward the lower end of their historical spectrum. While things could get worse before they get better, some high-quality companies are offering their most attractive entry points in 10+ years.</p><p>Of course, cheap can always get cheaper.</p><p>Let&#39;s use an example with Salesforce (CRM), a company already public during the Great Recession and has had a relatively stable growth profile. Salesforce has been trading from 6x to 12x revenue in the past 12 years and is currently below 6x. But if we look at 2009, the revenue multiple collapsed to 3x for a few months.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbfeac2f04633b414ea0f10b14c35538\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><ul><li>Could a similar sell-off occur in the quarters ahead? Yes, it could.</li><li>Would it change the long-term potential of the underlying business? Probably not.</li></ul><p>Recessions don&#39;t last forever. They last 11 months on average, as I recently discussed in my article about How To Invest In A Bear Market.</p><p>In this context, if you have a multi-year time horizon, developing a buyer mentality is essential. After all, Warren Buffett said we should be &#34;greedy when others are fearful.&#34;</p><p>Would I go &#34;all-in&#34; today? No, I wouldn&#39;t.</p><p>I&#39;m a rule-based and process-focused investor. I explain my approach in my article covering 4 Rules To Protect Your Portfolio. I invest a fixed amount every month, so I&#39;ve been a happy buyer lately. However, focusing on quality is paramount. And talking about quality, Snowflake checks many of my favorite boxes.</p><p>Let&#39;s review what makes SNOW an elite company, digest the numbers behind the recent quarter, and put its expensive price tag in perspective.</p><p><b>What Should You Know About Snowflake?</b></p><p>Snowflake&#39;s mission is to enable every organization to be data-driven.</p><p>The company offers a cloud-built data warehouse that delivers instant elasticity and secure data sharing across multiple clouds. It combines the power of data warehousing, the flexibility of big data platforms, and the cloud&#39;s elasticity at a fraction of the cost of traditional solutions.</p><p>Snowflake operates as a Data PaaS or Data Warehouse as-a-Service (DWaaS).</p><p>It partners with leading IaaS data service providers or &#34;hyperscalers&#34; (Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform) and delivers additional features. While it relies on these giant cloud providers, Snowflake also competes with several features they offer. The company defines its ecosystem as Data Cloud.</p><p>Snowflake&#39;s architecture has three layers:</p><ul><li><b>Storage</b>: Database data centrally stored in cloud storage.</li><li><b>Compute</b>: Multiple, independent compute clusters process queries.</li><li><b>Cloud services</b>: Independent management services manage metadata, optimization, security, etc.</li></ul><p>Snowflake&#39;s decoupled architecture allows for storage and compute to scale separately. Customers can use the storage from any cloud provider. Snowflake is faster and more efficient by using massively parallel processing or MPP. Management calls this a &#34;virtual data warehouse.&#34; A virtual warehouse can access the storage layer independently. It allows the company to quickly process a massive amount of data and scale based on the customer&#39;s needs. Snowflake&#39;s competitors combine compute and storage, making them costlier and harder to scale.</p><p><b>Snowflake Architecture </b><b>(Investor Presentation)</b></p><p>Snowflake&#39;s customers can scale up or down their storage and compute needs.</p><p>The role of the data cloud is to cover all data-related functions under <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> roof:</p><ul><li>Data Engineering.</li><li>Data Lake.</li><li>Data Warehouse.</li><li>Data Science.</li><li>Data Applications.</li><li>Data Sharing.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a90e083d230ffd0226587bf2997e78\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"489\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake&#39;s Platform (Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>A critical aspect of Snowflake&#39;s success is its expanding ecosystem of integration and the ability for customers to use it across any cloud provider:</p><ul><li>Snowflake is cloud-agnostic.</li><li>The platform integrates well with systems, apps, and services.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aab1045851189c9fa7c41d0b781840e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Partner Ecosystem (Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>But the most exciting part of Snowflake&#39;s Data Cloud is the breadth of innovation ahead. Here are a few topics discussed at Snowflake Summit:</p><ul><li><b>Connected industries</b>: Snowflake partners well with consulting groups that can turn into sales funnels for the company. Snowflake keeps innovating to serve new data needs and power new types of collaborations. For example, providing capacity to customers to monetize their data via Snowflake, who would be handling billing and distribution.</li><li><b>Global governance</b>: Easily ensure privacy compliance at scale (particularly for the finance and healthcare industry).</li><li><b>Platform optimization</b>: Performance, efficiency, capabilities.</li><li><b>Data programmability</b>: More value from data, making it easier and more flexible.</li><li><b>Powered by Snowflake</b>, a partner program to help software companies build, market, and operate apps on Snowflake Data Cloud.</li></ul><p>Snowflake also shows its international ambition with more than 26 offices worldwide, including 18 outside of the United States.</p><p>In 2021, Snowflake received an NPS (Net Promoter Score) or 68, more than three times higher than the industry average. The company also sports a perfect Dresner Customer Satisfaction Score in the past four years, with 100% of customers recommending Snowflake.</p><p>Let&#39;s not forget that Snowflake has been celebrated as a fantastic employer and one of the World&#39;s Most Innovative Companies (Fast Company, 2021).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23d210d1f23de662b2c995d093b7c0c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"161\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake employee reviews (Glassdoor)</span></p><p><b>How Does Snowflake Make Money?</b></p><p>Snowflake bills customers only for what they use. Therefore, most of the revenue is consumption-based (93% in Q1 FY23). Revenue is recognized as consumption occurs and is primarily billed annually in advance. Contract durations increase over time based on customer commitments.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf077728848d273dfce38af89020995\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Business Model (Snowflake Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>Billings are a critical indicator for companies that use a subscription model, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PATH\">UiPath</a> (PATH). For Snowflake, not so much. The billings show the cash flow timing, but they do not indicate actual consumption on the platform. Instead, management focuses on:</p><ul><li><b>Product revenue</b>: the GAAP revenue as consumption occurs.</li><li><b>RPO</b> (Remaining Performance Obligation): Contracted future revenue not yet recognized (yet to be billed).</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86a9a0d43ba31c1d15e668acb309f16e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Key Metrics (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>There are two ways to buy the Snowflake Service:</p><ul><li><b>On-Demand</b><i>:</i> Similar to AWS. Customers are charged a fixed rate for services used, billed monthly in arrears.</li><li><b>Pre-purchased Capacity</b><i>:</i> Customers pay a specific dollar commitment to Snowflake, paid in advance for a set term, allowing discounts. Customers pay via Snowflake Credits.</li></ul><p>Snowflake has an elite dollar-based net revenue retention rate of 174%. It means customers have spent 74% more on Snowflake in the past 12 months than they did in the previous 12 months, net of churn (customer loss).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/044334af456ec4f504df6e137e5c48bf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake NRR (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>A substantial risk to keep in mind is that the consumption model can also turn against Snowflake one day. If new entrants or competitors offer a cheaper or better solution, customers would be able to scale down their consumption.</p><p><b>SNOW Q1 FY23 Earnings Key Metrics</b></p><p>So now that we&#39;ve established how Snowflake is increasing its revenue per customer quickly, let&#39;s review how the company is growing its customer count.</p><p>At the end of the most recent quarter, Snowflake had:</p><ul><li>6,322 Total customers (+40% Y/Y, +6% Q/Q).</li><li>206 Customers with TTM revenue &gt; $1M (+98% Y/Y, +12% Q/Q).</li><li>506 Forbes Global Customers (+22% Y/Y, +3% Q/Q).</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0ab6c3aaa78d03818e59ce81716abd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake customer wins (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>At this point, only 3% of customers spend more than $1M annually. However, this portion is likely to increase significantly over time as customer increase their platform use.</p><p>The sheer total customer growth (+40%) is impressive and was barely a slow down from +44% in Q4 FY22.</p><p>Management has excellent visibility on future customer commitments, with RPO reaching $2.6B in Q1 FY23 (+82% Y/Y).</p><p>Note that RPO was flat sequentially, which may have spooked some investors. While RPO growth can be a great indicator of future revenue growth as a backlog of customer commitments, it&#39;s important to note that it&#39;s not perfect. Snowflake shows all RPO as opposed to RPO looking one year out. This figure ultimately depends on the length of the signed contracts, which can differ from one quarter to the next. As a result, not all periods are comparable depending on incentives given to sales reps to extend the length of contracts. Management explained during the earnings call that Q4 FY22 was an outlier.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c9533e8b27e4c1aebdc388ff1e6d37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake RPO (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>Snowflake is the fastest growing business of this scale on public markets. Annual revenue reached $1.2B in FY22 (+106% Y/Y). According to CFO Michael Scarpelli, the company is on track to be the fastest to reach $10B.</p><p>Note below that management separates product revenue (based on consumption) from professional services in their guidance.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023c02a12f671b999dbc84d3c8066032\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Revenue Growth (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>It&#39;s important to note that onboarding customers on Snowflake is time-consuming. It takes on average north of 200 days for customers to get up to the consumption rate they were contracted for. Database management takes time to set up. But once customers are up and running, they spend a lot more on Snowflake over time.</p><p>Let&#39;s dig into the numbers with the most recent quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39dbedb3fbd0989e7d01a20f30f79a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Q1 FY23 Highlights (Earnings Slides)</span></p><p><b>Q1 FY23 Highlights:</b></p><ul><li>Product Revenue was $394M (+84% Y/Y, vs. guidance of +80%).</li><li>Product Gross margin 66% (flat Y/Y).</li><li>GAAP operating loss margin was -45% (+45pp Y/Y).</li><li>Non-GAAP operating margin was 0% (+66pp Y/Y), vs. guidance of -2%.</li><li>Operating cash flow was $185M, a 44% OCF margin (+34pp Y/Y).</li><li>Free cash flow was $172M, an 41% FCF margin (+35pp Y/Y).</li><li>Cash and investments on the balance sheet were $3.8B.</li><li>Long-term debt was $0.2B.</li></ul><p><b>Guidance:</b></p><p>Q2 FY23:</p><ul><li>Product Revenue ~$435M-$440M (+72% Y/Y, +11% sequentially).</li><li>Non-GAAP operating margin -2%.</li></ul><p>Full Year FY23</p><ul><li>Product Revenue $1.9B (+66% Y/Y) - unchanged.</li><li>Non-GAAP operating margin 1% - unchanged.</li></ul><p>FY23 guidance shows growth normalization and continued margin expansion.</p><p>Let&#39;s put the past year in context:</p><ul><li><b>FY22 Guidance</b> (February 2021): Revenue $1B and adj. op. margin -19%.</li><li><b>FY22 Actual</b>: Revenue $1.2B (+$0.2B) and adj. op. margin -3% (+16pp).</li></ul><p>Management has a history of underpromising and overdelivering. That makes the FY23 guidance even more compelling.</p><p>The company&#39;s consumption model can make growth lumpy. While the consumption model is uncapped and can lead to a higher revenue per customer over time, it&#39;s also less predictable.</p><p>Despite this challenge, Snowflake has consistently beaten expectations on the top line (more on that in the valuation section below). It&#39;s important to note that customer-friendly improvements lowered the cost of Snowflake, adversely impacting short-term growth (~$97M impact in FY23). In short, customers can do more with the same amount of Snowflake Credits. This type of headwind is a net positive for long-term growth because it increases the odds of customers moving their data to Snowflake. Customer-centric management favoring long-term over short-term outcomes is what I want to see in my portfolio.</p><p>Should we expect Snowflake to be impacted by a potential recession?</p><p>CFO Mike Scarpelli explained during the Q1 FY23 call:</p><blockquote><i>Last year, we saw certain customers experience much higher than expected consumption -- own businesses were growing extremely fast. Today, some customers face a more challenging operating environment. Specific customers consume less than we anticipated amid shifting economic circumstances, we believe are unique to their businesses, most notably consumer facing cloud companies.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Although these customers are still growing, we believe as long as they are impacted by macroeconomic headwinds their consumption will be impacted. Consumption patterns may fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. This variability does not detract from our long-term opportunity. Customer’s overall demand for Snowflake remains unchanged. This is supported by the contractual commitments they are making with us and their longer-term plans for adopting the data cloud across their organization.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>[...] What I will say is April, we did see weakness in week-over-week growth in our total revenue by customer. But to be honest, the last two weeks of March or May has been very strong. But just given everything in the macro headwinds we&#39;re hearing, we&#39;re going to be a little bit more cautious going into the full year.</i></blockquote><p>If we look at the margin trends, they are excellent. The gross margin and operating margin improved steadily. The company is spending less on Sales &amp; Marketing over time, demonstrating an efficient go-to-market strategy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf1db4ed5ba1122167e8270f83e15a28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Gross Margin (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>Non-GAAP gross margin improvements are attributed to scalability, product improvement, and cloud agreement pricing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc7cab78ab1e8deccd12433856c4ac8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Operating Leverage (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>All non-GAAP operating expenses are falling, largely thanks to scalability.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1a81419d7769ac7353774b8b54481a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Cash Flow (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>As a result, cash flow margins have continued to improve.</p><p>Now let&#39;s look at the GAAP margin trends, which factor in stock-based compensation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e17bfea7d7b69a40cdbc39354c4d3d9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><ul><li><b>Gross margin</b> has been improving, at 65% in Q1 FY23.</li><li><b>Sales &amp; marketing costs</b> remained high, at 58% of revenue in Q1 FY23.</li><li><b>Operating margin</b> is improving steadily, at -45% in Q1 FY23.</li></ul><p>Stock-based compensation is the main difference between GAAP and non-GAAP margins:</p><ul><li>In FY22, SBC was $675M (+114% Y/Y) or 55% of revenue in FY22.</li><li>In Q1 FY23, SBC was $183M (+10% Y/Y) or 44% of revenue (-29pp Y/Y).</li></ul><p>I expect SBC to represent less in percentage of revenue over time. From a dilution perspective, the impact is relatively small (FY22 SBC was less than 2% of the market cap).</p><p>We can summarize the recent results as follows:</p><ul><li>Exceptional revenue growth at +84% Y/Y - showing <i>strength</i>.</li><li>High gross margin at 65% - showing <i>long-term potential.</i></li><li>Falling sales &amp; marketing costs - showing the <i>scalability</i>.</li><li>Improving adj. operating margin - showing <i>operating leverage</i>.</li><li>Positive net cash position on the balance sheet and positive cash flow from operations - showing <i>sustainability</i>.</li></ul><p><b>What should we expect from Snowflake&#39;s margin over time?</b></p><p>Management previously shared their long-term operating model by the time they reach $10B in annual revenue. They significantly upgraded the margin targets for FY29:</p><ul><li>Revenue growth around +30% Y/Y (unchanged).</li><li>Non-GAAP gross margin around 78% (+3pp).</li><li>Non-GAAP operating margin around 20% (+10pp).</li><li>FCF margin is around 25% (+10pp).</li></ul><p>During the investor presentation Q&amp;A last year, CFO Michael Scarpelli clarified that the margin targets were worst-case scenarios. Since Snowflake is on track to achieve an FCF margin of 16% in FY23, the projection still appears conservative.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ae90a0023b5a49b47a3296a9e561c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Guidance (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p><b>How Big Is Snowflake&#39;s Lead On Competitors?</b></p><p>Snowflake&#39;s management breaks down the competition into four categories:</p><ul><li><b>Large, well-established, public cloud providers,also known as&#34;hyperscalers,&#34;</b> with specific features such as AWS Redshift (AMZN), Google BigQuery (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure Synapse Analytics (MSFT). They compete in all of Snowflake&#39;s markets.</li><li><b>Less-established public and private cloud companies</b> with products competing in some of Snowflake&#39;s markets, such as Cloudera, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> (IBM), Databricks, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDC\">Teradata</a>.</li><li><b>Other established vendors</b>of legacy database solutions or big data offerings, including Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP).</li><li><b>New or emerging entrants</b> seeking to develop competing technologies.</li></ul><p>When I invest in a category, my preference generally goes to the best companies. And evidence shows Snowflake is among the very best performers in Data Warehouse. Below is the G2 Grid for Data Warehouse. You can find Snowflake in the top right of the chart as the best performer, alongside AWS.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4451761c034e3f28141d965df7e753e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"688\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>G2 Grid Data Warehouse (G2)</span></p><p>Snowflake also appears as a leader in the Forrester Wave for Cloud Data Warehouse (see below). Other leaders in the field are AWS, Google, Microsoft, Oracle, and Teradata.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d8f0c71aceca3764d8a3ce6735deff3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"848\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Cloud Data Warehouse (The Forrester Wave)</span></p><p>The Gartner Magic Quadrant for Data Management Solutions for Analytics has not been publicly updated for three years. At the time, it showed Snowflake among the leaders as well.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95187d7ffa2508faba52e7582e3234bc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Magic Quadrant Data Management (Gartner)</span></p><p>So what is the moat? To fend off competition, Snowflake benefits from:</p><ul><li><b>Network effects</b>: With artificial intelligence tools, Snowflake is getting smarter and better with every additional customer, <i>a la</i> CrowdStrike (CRWD). More importantly, Snowflake builds custom solutions for industry leaders and their needs (e.g., governance, security, data sharing), opening, in turn, the opportunity for more industry members to join the platform. To illustrate, 18% of customers had at least one data-sharing relationship in FY22, up from 13% in FY21.</li><li><b>Switching costs</b>: Since database management is time-consuming to set up correctly, over time, it becomes unlikely a customer would want to waste days, weeks, or months transitioning to another Data Warehouse system. The company&#39;s outstanding retention metrics illustrate this advantage. However, Snowflake&#39;s pricing will have to remain competitive.</li><li><b>Brand</b>: The growing popularity of Snowflake on DB engines combined with its customer satisfaction put it on the right track to building a strong brand.</li></ul><p>Snowflake provides the data cloud, analytics, and other services in one single provider. In addition, given Snowflake&#39;s focus on improving the platform&#39;s efficiency to keep customers happy, their competitive advantage is well-positioned to expand over time.</p><p>Competition is a fact of life for all the best businesses globally. However, I like Snowflake&#39;s position and odds of success given its agnostic position with the big cloud providers and its headstart on the rest of the market.</p><p><b>What Is The Long-Term Potential for Snowflake?</b></p><p>Snowflake is addressing an important, emerging industry.</p><p>Management estimated the addressable market for Cloud Data Platform to be approximately $90B at the end of January 2021 (up from $81B a year prior). The runway ahead remains gigantic since Snowflake had a run rate of just over $1B in FY22.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20576c6d082c2ae1b0569b5b0202d8b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Market Opportunity (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>IDC estimates the market for Analytics Data Management and Integration Platforms and Business Intelligence and Analytics Tools had a combined value of $56B at the end of 2020. It will grow to $84B by 2023 (+11% CAGR). The data sharing opportunity has not been defined or quantified, but it would add to this enormous market.</p><p>The explosion of data to drive business outcomes is a theme you&#39;ll find across many positions in the App Economy Portfolio, such as MongoDB (MDB) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a> (DDOG).</p><p>The increasing role of data in the decision process is something I&#39;ve witnessed firsthand through my gaming career as a Senior Director of Financial Planning &amp; Analysis. Positions like Data Analyst or Data Scientist didn&#39;t even exist 20 years ago. Even businesses that used to rely on superficial sales data to evaluate their performance are going much deeper.</p><p>Let&#39;s use the example of the gaming industry. A game publisher used to have only access to the number of units sold to retailers to evaluate the success of a title. Gaming used to be a simple physical retail business with units on shelves, just like any CPG business. Today, the KPIs are vast across user acquisition, monetization, and retention. It&#39;s a predominantly digital business migrating to the cloud. It now includes a plethora of data to drive operations, direct-to-consumer promotions, retention, and engagement tactics. Gaming is far from being the only industry shifting from the physical to the digital world with the explosion of data that comes with it. This logic applies to video and music entertainment, payments, shopping, work collaboration, healthcare, life science, banking, networking, etc. Data has become an essential tool to manage and improve CRM and business performance, and this trend is here to stay. Organizations across all industries are increasingly reliant on collecting, analyzing, and mobilizing data.</p><p>Let&#39;s recap the two key trends:</p><p><b>Trend 1) Explosion of data</b></p><p>Snowflake management argues that the proliferation of connected devices and applications results in an explosion of digital data. In turn, businesses have new needs that come with it:</p><blockquote><i>According to IDC, there will be 175 zettabytes of data by 2025, representing a CAGR of 27% from 33 zettabytes of data in 2018. This data contains valuable insights for organizations, including key business and performance metrics, customer attributes and behavior, and product strengths and capabilities.</i></blockquote><p><b>Trend 2) Cloud migration</b></p><p>Organizations are shifting from static on-premises IT architectures to a multi-cloud architecture. This migration is accelerating:</p><blockquote><i>According to IDC, 49% of data will be stored in public cloud environments by 2025, an increase from approximately 30% today. [...] 90% of Global 1000 Organizations will have a multi-cloud management strategy by 2024.</i></blockquote><p>According to Gartner:</p><ul><li>Public Cloud will grow from 58% of software spending in 2020 to 86% by 2025.</li><li>Database Management Systems and BI Platforms will more than triple between 2020 and 2025.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da43b23bfa68fe949466a2b6c23fb3d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Cloud migration (Snowflake Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>Snowflake&#39;s key leverages to drive growth looking forward are simple:</p><ul><li>More customers.</li><li>More product adoption from existing customers.</li><li>New products via platform expansion (governance, programmability, etc.).</li><li>International expansion.</li></ul><p>US Cloud computing alone is expected to grow at +18% CAGR, illustrating the runway ahead for the leaders in these categories.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2874bd8d4359836f37bb482e5eaaca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Cloud in % of IT Spending (Benedict Evans)</span></p><p><b>Snowflake Valuation: How Much Is Too Much?</b></p><p>Snowflake raised $3.4B at a $30B valuation for its IPO in 2020. However, Public investors never traded SNOW at the offering price of $120 per share. Instead, shares popped +112% on their first trading day. Unfortunately, the company left close to $4B on the table.</p><p>As soon as its first day as a public company, SNOW had a valuation north of $60B. Yet, as I write this line almost two years later, SNOW is down 13% in after-hours, trading at $115, below its pre-listing price. So far, SNOW has not been a great investment for public investors, but it doesn&#39;t mean it will stay that way.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93e3000fba15a4bbaa8b0f56d84f57f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>SNOW is now trading on the low-end of its valuation spectrum, at about 15 times forward sales (if we factor the after-hours sell-off).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c9c21c46b43308942e11809b3ea3205\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>More context on Snowflake&#39;s valuation (after-hours sell-off included):</p><ul><li>27 times FY22 revenue (past 12 months).</li><li>15 times FY23 revenue estimates.</li><li>11 times FY24 revenue estimates.</li><li>7 times FY25 revenue estimates.</li></ul><p>As you can see, even assuming the company merely meets Wall Street&#39;s expectations moving forward, it will &#34;grow into&#34; its valuation multiple pretty quickly. Since going public, the company has a stellar track record, beating expectations by 6% on average over seven quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46c12fdb5ac38b673af946fa9784b97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SNOW Revenue Surprise (Seeking Alpha Premium)</span></p><p>This type of outperformance can compound over time. To illustrate, Q1 FY23 estimated revenue was $350M when the company went public 18 months ago. Instead, the company just delivered $422M. So in a matter of 18 months, the difference between Wall Street&#39;s estimates and reality was more than 20%. So when I say SNOW is trading at 7 times FY25 revenue estimates, it might be even less if the uptrend continues.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95929dab3c3440b380b64691a233ecb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"217\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SNOW Consensus Revision (Seeking Alpha Premium)</span></p><p>Snowflake&#39;s revenue multiple will compress significantly in the coming years. But that&#39;s beside the point. Multiple compression and strong stock performance are not mutually exclusive.</p><p>Management projected $10B in annual product revenue by FY29 (i.e., Jan-2029). Importantly, this figure is simply a conservative extrapolation of the trend from the existing product offerings. Moreover, management now has a documented history of underpromising and overdelivering, so I wouldn&#39;t use this number to model a discounted cash flow analysis.</p><p>In seven years, with an annual revenue run rate of $10B, Snowflake might generate ~$4B of cash flow at scale while still growing at +30% Y/Y. Assuming dilution is entirely offset by the cash flow generated along the way, what will be Snowflake&#39;s market cap by then?</p><p>For giggles, we can look at what <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> (ADBE) looked like when it crossed $10B in revenue at the end of 2019 (pre-COVID). The company grew revenue in the low 20s and was valued at ~$170B or about 40 times free cash flow.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e942a67cbcd5ab65c7e99d65303a9b0c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>So what to expect from Snowflake if management can deliver on their path to $10B? Given SNOW&#39;s ~$32B valuation, it has the potential to more than triple in the next seven years, even by just meeting the $10B by FY29 target and assuming margins are on the low-end of expectations.</p><p>If management is conservative about its FY29 goal the same way they were about their FY22 goal, the potential returns could be much higher.</p><p>I want to avoid false precision and be directionally correct when looking at an opportunity. If Snowflake truly is on a path to being the fastest enterprise software company to reach $10B in annual revenue, I believe the returns will come in due time.</p><p><b>Is SNOW Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p>Snowflake is a stellar business that checks most of my favorite boxes.</p><ul><li>Founder-led.</li><li>High insider ownership.</li><li>A strong track record of innovation.</li><li>A category leader ahead of the pack.</li><li>Growing fast, with tremendous unit economics.</li><li>Recognized as a leading and best-in-class product.</li><li>In an essential emerging industry expected to boom.</li><li>Strong cash-flow margins with a robust balance sheet.</li><li>Amazing backers such as Buffett, Altimeter, Sequoia, and Tiger Global.</li></ul><p>Given its explosive customer growth and exceptional retention metrics, I believe it&#39;s only a matter of time before it grows into its valuation.</p><p>The company has proven to be capital efficient and has ample opportunity to fund its growth path forward.</p><p>SNOW has never been cheap since its 2020 IPO. And in the current macro environment, it has a higher risk of multiple compression. So, it should only be considered by investors with a multi-year time horizon.</p><p>Additionally, if revenue growth slows faster than expected in a challenging environment, the stock could be punished harshly in the short term. My solution to alleviate this risk is simple: start with a small position, and build up from here over several quarters based on the company&#39;s execution.</p><ul><li>Is Snowflake&#39;s valuation still too rich for your blood?</li><li>Do you believe the company has a long runway ahead?</li><li>Would Snowflake qualify as a high-quality business in your selection process?</li></ul><p>Let me know in the comments!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake Stock Melted Over 70% - Is It A Long-Term Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnowflake Stock Melted Over 70% - Is It A Long-Term Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-27 20:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514685-snowflake-stock-melted-over-70-percent-long-term-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySnowflake just reported its Q1 FY23 performance with a beat on the top and bottom line.Although FY23 guidance remained unchanged, management increased markedly its FY29 margin targets.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514685-snowflake-stock-melted-over-70-percent-long-term-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514685-snowflake-stock-melted-over-70-percent-long-term-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2238163298","content_text":"SummarySnowflake just reported its Q1 FY23 performance with a beat on the top and bottom line.Although FY23 guidance remained unchanged, management increased markedly its FY29 margin targets.The business is already cash-flow positive and has a robust balance sheet to fuel future growth and potential acquisitions.This founder-led company has a proven track record of innovation, making it a relevant investment for the long term.SNOW has fallen below its 2020 IPO price and is the cheapest it's ever been, despite beating expectations every quarter since going public.Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWith the Nasdaq close to 30% off its peak, the market continues to be very challenging, particularly for growth stock investors.By some measures, it's been the worst start of the year for stocks since the Great Depression. In addition, the American Association of Individual Investors shared that more than half of individual investors are bearish.The market is already assuming the chance of a recession is higher than 50%. Therefore, it leads us to wonder what the impact could be on the growth of software businesses in the near term.Jamin Ball, a partner at Altimeter, recently shared how the fundamentals of software stocks were affected during the 2008 Great Recession. His research shows public SaaS companies saw a revenue growth slowdown in 2009 before re-accelerating in 2010.With a potential recession and rising interest rates on the horizon, many investors wouldn't touch fast-growing technology stocks with a ten-foot pole. As a result, many of them are down 40%, 60%, or even 80% from their high.And the stock du jour, Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW), is no exception. The share price is now more than 70% off its peak and at an all-time low after reporting Q1 FY23.Cloud software valuations have come down toward the lower end of their historical spectrum. While things could get worse before they get better, some high-quality companies are offering their most attractive entry points in 10+ years.Of course, cheap can always get cheaper.Let's use an example with Salesforce (CRM), a company already public during the Great Recession and has had a relatively stable growth profile. Salesforce has been trading from 6x to 12x revenue in the past 12 years and is currently below 6x. But if we look at 2009, the revenue multiple collapsed to 3x for a few months.Data by YChartsCould a similar sell-off occur in the quarters ahead? Yes, it could.Would it change the long-term potential of the underlying business? Probably not.Recessions don't last forever. They last 11 months on average, as I recently discussed in my article about How To Invest In A Bear Market.In this context, if you have a multi-year time horizon, developing a buyer mentality is essential. After all, Warren Buffett said we should be \"greedy when others are fearful.\"Would I go \"all-in\" today? No, I wouldn't.I'm a rule-based and process-focused investor. I explain my approach in my article covering 4 Rules To Protect Your Portfolio. I invest a fixed amount every month, so I've been a happy buyer lately. However, focusing on quality is paramount. And talking about quality, Snowflake checks many of my favorite boxes.Let's review what makes SNOW an elite company, digest the numbers behind the recent quarter, and put its expensive price tag in perspective.What Should You Know About Snowflake?Snowflake's mission is to enable every organization to be data-driven.The company offers a cloud-built data warehouse that delivers instant elasticity and secure data sharing across multiple clouds. It combines the power of data warehousing, the flexibility of big data platforms, and the cloud's elasticity at a fraction of the cost of traditional solutions.Snowflake operates as a Data PaaS or Data Warehouse as-a-Service (DWaaS).It partners with leading IaaS data service providers or \"hyperscalers\" (Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform) and delivers additional features. While it relies on these giant cloud providers, Snowflake also competes with several features they offer. The company defines its ecosystem as Data Cloud.Snowflake's architecture has three layers:Storage: Database data centrally stored in cloud storage.Compute: Multiple, independent compute clusters process queries.Cloud services: Independent management services manage metadata, optimization, security, etc.Snowflake's decoupled architecture allows for storage and compute to scale separately. Customers can use the storage from any cloud provider. Snowflake is faster and more efficient by using massively parallel processing or MPP. Management calls this a \"virtual data warehouse.\" A virtual warehouse can access the storage layer independently. It allows the company to quickly process a massive amount of data and scale based on the customer's needs. Snowflake's competitors combine compute and storage, making them costlier and harder to scale.Snowflake Architecture (Investor Presentation)Snowflake's customers can scale up or down their storage and compute needs.The role of the data cloud is to cover all data-related functions under one roof:Data Engineering.Data Lake.Data Warehouse.Data Science.Data Applications.Data Sharing.Snowflake's Platform (Investor Presentation)A critical aspect of Snowflake's success is its expanding ecosystem of integration and the ability for customers to use it across any cloud provider:Snowflake is cloud-agnostic.The platform integrates well with systems, apps, and services.Snowflake Partner Ecosystem (Investor Presentation)But the most exciting part of Snowflake's Data Cloud is the breadth of innovation ahead. Here are a few topics discussed at Snowflake Summit:Connected industries: Snowflake partners well with consulting groups that can turn into sales funnels for the company. Snowflake keeps innovating to serve new data needs and power new types of collaborations. For example, providing capacity to customers to monetize their data via Snowflake, who would be handling billing and distribution.Global governance: Easily ensure privacy compliance at scale (particularly for the finance and healthcare industry).Platform optimization: Performance, efficiency, capabilities.Data programmability: More value from data, making it easier and more flexible.Powered by Snowflake, a partner program to help software companies build, market, and operate apps on Snowflake Data Cloud.Snowflake also shows its international ambition with more than 26 offices worldwide, including 18 outside of the United States.In 2021, Snowflake received an NPS (Net Promoter Score) or 68, more than three times higher than the industry average. The company also sports a perfect Dresner Customer Satisfaction Score in the past four years, with 100% of customers recommending Snowflake.Let's not forget that Snowflake has been celebrated as a fantastic employer and one of the World's Most Innovative Companies (Fast Company, 2021).Snowflake employee reviews (Glassdoor)How Does Snowflake Make Money?Snowflake bills customers only for what they use. Therefore, most of the revenue is consumption-based (93% in Q1 FY23). Revenue is recognized as consumption occurs and is primarily billed annually in advance. Contract durations increase over time based on customer commitments.Snowflake Business Model (Snowflake Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)Billings are a critical indicator for companies that use a subscription model, such as UiPath (PATH). For Snowflake, not so much. The billings show the cash flow timing, but they do not indicate actual consumption on the platform. Instead, management focuses on:Product revenue: the GAAP revenue as consumption occurs.RPO (Remaining Performance Obligation): Contracted future revenue not yet recognized (yet to be billed).Snowflake Key Metrics (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)There are two ways to buy the Snowflake Service:On-Demand: Similar to AWS. Customers are charged a fixed rate for services used, billed monthly in arrears.Pre-purchased Capacity: Customers pay a specific dollar commitment to Snowflake, paid in advance for a set term, allowing discounts. Customers pay via Snowflake Credits.Snowflake has an elite dollar-based net revenue retention rate of 174%. It means customers have spent 74% more on Snowflake in the past 12 months than they did in the previous 12 months, net of churn (customer loss).Snowflake NRR (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)A substantial risk to keep in mind is that the consumption model can also turn against Snowflake one day. If new entrants or competitors offer a cheaper or better solution, customers would be able to scale down their consumption.SNOW Q1 FY23 Earnings Key MetricsSo now that we've established how Snowflake is increasing its revenue per customer quickly, let's review how the company is growing its customer count.At the end of the most recent quarter, Snowflake had:6,322 Total customers (+40% Y/Y, +6% Q/Q).206 Customers with TTM revenue > $1M (+98% Y/Y, +12% Q/Q).506 Forbes Global Customers (+22% Y/Y, +3% Q/Q).Snowflake customer wins (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)At this point, only 3% of customers spend more than $1M annually. However, this portion is likely to increase significantly over time as customer increase their platform use.The sheer total customer growth (+40%) is impressive and was barely a slow down from +44% in Q4 FY22.Management has excellent visibility on future customer commitments, with RPO reaching $2.6B in Q1 FY23 (+82% Y/Y).Note that RPO was flat sequentially, which may have spooked some investors. While RPO growth can be a great indicator of future revenue growth as a backlog of customer commitments, it's important to note that it's not perfect. Snowflake shows all RPO as opposed to RPO looking one year out. This figure ultimately depends on the length of the signed contracts, which can differ from one quarter to the next. As a result, not all periods are comparable depending on incentives given to sales reps to extend the length of contracts. Management explained during the earnings call that Q4 FY22 was an outlier.Snowflake RPO (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)Snowflake is the fastest growing business of this scale on public markets. Annual revenue reached $1.2B in FY22 (+106% Y/Y). According to CFO Michael Scarpelli, the company is on track to be the fastest to reach $10B.Note below that management separates product revenue (based on consumption) from professional services in their guidance.Snowflake Revenue Growth (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)It's important to note that onboarding customers on Snowflake is time-consuming. It takes on average north of 200 days for customers to get up to the consumption rate they were contracted for. Database management takes time to set up. But once customers are up and running, they spend a lot more on Snowflake over time.Let's dig into the numbers with the most recent quarter.Snowflake Q1 FY23 Highlights (Earnings Slides)Q1 FY23 Highlights:Product Revenue was $394M (+84% Y/Y, vs. guidance of +80%).Product Gross margin 66% (flat Y/Y).GAAP operating loss margin was -45% (+45pp Y/Y).Non-GAAP operating margin was 0% (+66pp Y/Y), vs. guidance of -2%.Operating cash flow was $185M, a 44% OCF margin (+34pp Y/Y).Free cash flow was $172M, an 41% FCF margin (+35pp Y/Y).Cash and investments on the balance sheet were $3.8B.Long-term debt was $0.2B.Guidance:Q2 FY23:Product Revenue ~$435M-$440M (+72% Y/Y, +11% sequentially).Non-GAAP operating margin -2%.Full Year FY23Product Revenue $1.9B (+66% Y/Y) - unchanged.Non-GAAP operating margin 1% - unchanged.FY23 guidance shows growth normalization and continued margin expansion.Let's put the past year in context:FY22 Guidance (February 2021): Revenue $1B and adj. op. margin -19%.FY22 Actual: Revenue $1.2B (+$0.2B) and adj. op. margin -3% (+16pp).Management has a history of underpromising and overdelivering. That makes the FY23 guidance even more compelling.The company's consumption model can make growth lumpy. While the consumption model is uncapped and can lead to a higher revenue per customer over time, it's also less predictable.Despite this challenge, Snowflake has consistently beaten expectations on the top line (more on that in the valuation section below). It's important to note that customer-friendly improvements lowered the cost of Snowflake, adversely impacting short-term growth (~$97M impact in FY23). In short, customers can do more with the same amount of Snowflake Credits. This type of headwind is a net positive for long-term growth because it increases the odds of customers moving their data to Snowflake. Customer-centric management favoring long-term over short-term outcomes is what I want to see in my portfolio.Should we expect Snowflake to be impacted by a potential recession?CFO Mike Scarpelli explained during the Q1 FY23 call:Last year, we saw certain customers experience much higher than expected consumption -- own businesses were growing extremely fast. Today, some customers face a more challenging operating environment. Specific customers consume less than we anticipated amid shifting economic circumstances, we believe are unique to their businesses, most notably consumer facing cloud companies.Although these customers are still growing, we believe as long as they are impacted by macroeconomic headwinds their consumption will be impacted. Consumption patterns may fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. This variability does not detract from our long-term opportunity. Customer’s overall demand for Snowflake remains unchanged. This is supported by the contractual commitments they are making with us and their longer-term plans for adopting the data cloud across their organization.[...] What I will say is April, we did see weakness in week-over-week growth in our total revenue by customer. But to be honest, the last two weeks of March or May has been very strong. But just given everything in the macro headwinds we're hearing, we're going to be a little bit more cautious going into the full year.If we look at the margin trends, they are excellent. The gross margin and operating margin improved steadily. The company is spending less on Sales & Marketing over time, demonstrating an efficient go-to-market strategy.Snowflake Gross Margin (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)Non-GAAP gross margin improvements are attributed to scalability, product improvement, and cloud agreement pricing.Snowflake Operating Leverage (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)All non-GAAP operating expenses are falling, largely thanks to scalability.Snowflake Cash Flow (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)As a result, cash flow margins have continued to improve.Now let's look at the GAAP margin trends, which factor in stock-based compensation.Data by YChartsGross margin has been improving, at 65% in Q1 FY23.Sales & marketing costs remained high, at 58% of revenue in Q1 FY23.Operating margin is improving steadily, at -45% in Q1 FY23.Stock-based compensation is the main difference between GAAP and non-GAAP margins:In FY22, SBC was $675M (+114% Y/Y) or 55% of revenue in FY22.In Q1 FY23, SBC was $183M (+10% Y/Y) or 44% of revenue (-29pp Y/Y).I expect SBC to represent less in percentage of revenue over time. From a dilution perspective, the impact is relatively small (FY22 SBC was less than 2% of the market cap).We can summarize the recent results as follows:Exceptional revenue growth at +84% Y/Y - showing strength.High gross margin at 65% - showing long-term potential.Falling sales & marketing costs - showing the scalability.Improving adj. operating margin - showing operating leverage.Positive net cash position on the balance sheet and positive cash flow from operations - showing sustainability.What should we expect from Snowflake's margin over time?Management previously shared their long-term operating model by the time they reach $10B in annual revenue. They significantly upgraded the margin targets for FY29:Revenue growth around +30% Y/Y (unchanged).Non-GAAP gross margin around 78% (+3pp).Non-GAAP operating margin around 20% (+10pp).FCF margin is around 25% (+10pp).During the investor presentation Q&A last year, CFO Michael Scarpelli clarified that the margin targets were worst-case scenarios. Since Snowflake is on track to achieve an FCF margin of 16% in FY23, the projection still appears conservative.Snowflake Guidance (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)How Big Is Snowflake's Lead On Competitors?Snowflake's management breaks down the competition into four categories:Large, well-established, public cloud providers,also known as\"hyperscalers,\" with specific features such as AWS Redshift (AMZN), Google BigQuery (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure Synapse Analytics (MSFT). They compete in all of Snowflake's markets.Less-established public and private cloud companies with products competing in some of Snowflake's markets, such as Cloudera, IBM (IBM), Databricks, and Teradata.Other established vendorsof legacy database solutions or big data offerings, including Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP).New or emerging entrants seeking to develop competing technologies.When I invest in a category, my preference generally goes to the best companies. And evidence shows Snowflake is among the very best performers in Data Warehouse. Below is the G2 Grid for Data Warehouse. You can find Snowflake in the top right of the chart as the best performer, alongside AWS.G2 Grid Data Warehouse (G2)Snowflake also appears as a leader in the Forrester Wave for Cloud Data Warehouse (see below). Other leaders in the field are AWS, Google, Microsoft, Oracle, and Teradata.Cloud Data Warehouse (The Forrester Wave)The Gartner Magic Quadrant for Data Management Solutions for Analytics has not been publicly updated for three years. At the time, it showed Snowflake among the leaders as well.Magic Quadrant Data Management (Gartner)So what is the moat? To fend off competition, Snowflake benefits from:Network effects: With artificial intelligence tools, Snowflake is getting smarter and better with every additional customer, a la CrowdStrike (CRWD). More importantly, Snowflake builds custom solutions for industry leaders and their needs (e.g., governance, security, data sharing), opening, in turn, the opportunity for more industry members to join the platform. To illustrate, 18% of customers had at least one data-sharing relationship in FY22, up from 13% in FY21.Switching costs: Since database management is time-consuming to set up correctly, over time, it becomes unlikely a customer would want to waste days, weeks, or months transitioning to another Data Warehouse system. The company's outstanding retention metrics illustrate this advantage. However, Snowflake's pricing will have to remain competitive.Brand: The growing popularity of Snowflake on DB engines combined with its customer satisfaction put it on the right track to building a strong brand.Snowflake provides the data cloud, analytics, and other services in one single provider. In addition, given Snowflake's focus on improving the platform's efficiency to keep customers happy, their competitive advantage is well-positioned to expand over time.Competition is a fact of life for all the best businesses globally. However, I like Snowflake's position and odds of success given its agnostic position with the big cloud providers and its headstart on the rest of the market.What Is The Long-Term Potential for Snowflake?Snowflake is addressing an important, emerging industry.Management estimated the addressable market for Cloud Data Platform to be approximately $90B at the end of January 2021 (up from $81B a year prior). The runway ahead remains gigantic since Snowflake had a run rate of just over $1B in FY22.Snowflake Market Opportunity (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)IDC estimates the market for Analytics Data Management and Integration Platforms and Business Intelligence and Analytics Tools had a combined value of $56B at the end of 2020. It will grow to $84B by 2023 (+11% CAGR). The data sharing opportunity has not been defined or quantified, but it would add to this enormous market.The explosion of data to drive business outcomes is a theme you'll find across many positions in the App Economy Portfolio, such as MongoDB (MDB) and Datadog (DDOG).The increasing role of data in the decision process is something I've witnessed firsthand through my gaming career as a Senior Director of Financial Planning & Analysis. Positions like Data Analyst or Data Scientist didn't even exist 20 years ago. Even businesses that used to rely on superficial sales data to evaluate their performance are going much deeper.Let's use the example of the gaming industry. A game publisher used to have only access to the number of units sold to retailers to evaluate the success of a title. Gaming used to be a simple physical retail business with units on shelves, just like any CPG business. Today, the KPIs are vast across user acquisition, monetization, and retention. It's a predominantly digital business migrating to the cloud. It now includes a plethora of data to drive operations, direct-to-consumer promotions, retention, and engagement tactics. Gaming is far from being the only industry shifting from the physical to the digital world with the explosion of data that comes with it. This logic applies to video and music entertainment, payments, shopping, work collaboration, healthcare, life science, banking, networking, etc. Data has become an essential tool to manage and improve CRM and business performance, and this trend is here to stay. Organizations across all industries are increasingly reliant on collecting, analyzing, and mobilizing data.Let's recap the two key trends:Trend 1) Explosion of dataSnowflake management argues that the proliferation of connected devices and applications results in an explosion of digital data. In turn, businesses have new needs that come with it:According to IDC, there will be 175 zettabytes of data by 2025, representing a CAGR of 27% from 33 zettabytes of data in 2018. This data contains valuable insights for organizations, including key business and performance metrics, customer attributes and behavior, and product strengths and capabilities.Trend 2) Cloud migrationOrganizations are shifting from static on-premises IT architectures to a multi-cloud architecture. This migration is accelerating:According to IDC, 49% of data will be stored in public cloud environments by 2025, an increase from approximately 30% today. [...] 90% of Global 1000 Organizations will have a multi-cloud management strategy by 2024.According to Gartner:Public Cloud will grow from 58% of software spending in 2020 to 86% by 2025.Database Management Systems and BI Platforms will more than triple between 2020 and 2025.Cloud migration (Snowflake Investor Presentation)Snowflake's key leverages to drive growth looking forward are simple:More customers.More product adoption from existing customers.New products via platform expansion (governance, programmability, etc.).International expansion.US Cloud computing alone is expected to grow at +18% CAGR, illustrating the runway ahead for the leaders in these categories.Cloud in % of IT Spending (Benedict Evans)Snowflake Valuation: How Much Is Too Much?Snowflake raised $3.4B at a $30B valuation for its IPO in 2020. However, Public investors never traded SNOW at the offering price of $120 per share. Instead, shares popped +112% on their first trading day. Unfortunately, the company left close to $4B on the table.As soon as its first day as a public company, SNOW had a valuation north of $60B. Yet, as I write this line almost two years later, SNOW is down 13% in after-hours, trading at $115, below its pre-listing price. So far, SNOW has not been a great investment for public investors, but it doesn't mean it will stay that way.Data by YChartsSNOW is now trading on the low-end of its valuation spectrum, at about 15 times forward sales (if we factor the after-hours sell-off).Data by YChartsMore context on Snowflake's valuation (after-hours sell-off included):27 times FY22 revenue (past 12 months).15 times FY23 revenue estimates.11 times FY24 revenue estimates.7 times FY25 revenue estimates.As you can see, even assuming the company merely meets Wall Street's expectations moving forward, it will \"grow into\" its valuation multiple pretty quickly. Since going public, the company has a stellar track record, beating expectations by 6% on average over seven quarters.SNOW Revenue Surprise (Seeking Alpha Premium)This type of outperformance can compound over time. To illustrate, Q1 FY23 estimated revenue was $350M when the company went public 18 months ago. Instead, the company just delivered $422M. So in a matter of 18 months, the difference between Wall Street's estimates and reality was more than 20%. So when I say SNOW is trading at 7 times FY25 revenue estimates, it might be even less if the uptrend continues.SNOW Consensus Revision (Seeking Alpha Premium)Snowflake's revenue multiple will compress significantly in the coming years. But that's beside the point. Multiple compression and strong stock performance are not mutually exclusive.Management projected $10B in annual product revenue by FY29 (i.e., Jan-2029). Importantly, this figure is simply a conservative extrapolation of the trend from the existing product offerings. Moreover, management now has a documented history of underpromising and overdelivering, so I wouldn't use this number to model a discounted cash flow analysis.In seven years, with an annual revenue run rate of $10B, Snowflake might generate ~$4B of cash flow at scale while still growing at +30% Y/Y. Assuming dilution is entirely offset by the cash flow generated along the way, what will be Snowflake's market cap by then?For giggles, we can look at what Adobe (ADBE) looked like when it crossed $10B in revenue at the end of 2019 (pre-COVID). The company grew revenue in the low 20s and was valued at ~$170B or about 40 times free cash flow.Data by YChartsSo what to expect from Snowflake if management can deliver on their path to $10B? Given SNOW's ~$32B valuation, it has the potential to more than triple in the next seven years, even by just meeting the $10B by FY29 target and assuming margins are on the low-end of expectations.If management is conservative about its FY29 goal the same way they were about their FY22 goal, the potential returns could be much higher.I want to avoid false precision and be directionally correct when looking at an opportunity. If Snowflake truly is on a path to being the fastest enterprise software company to reach $10B in annual revenue, I believe the returns will come in due time.Is SNOW Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?Snowflake is a stellar business that checks most of my favorite boxes.Founder-led.High insider ownership.A strong track record of innovation.A category leader ahead of the pack.Growing fast, with tremendous unit economics.Recognized as a leading and best-in-class product.In an essential emerging industry expected to boom.Strong cash-flow margins with a robust balance sheet.Amazing backers such as Buffett, Altimeter, Sequoia, and Tiger Global.Given its explosive customer growth and exceptional retention metrics, I believe it's only a matter of time before it grows into its valuation.The company has proven to be capital efficient and has ample opportunity to fund its growth path forward.SNOW has never been cheap since its 2020 IPO. And in the current macro environment, it has a higher risk of multiple compression. So, it should only be considered by investors with a multi-year time horizon.Additionally, if revenue growth slows faster than expected in a challenging environment, the stock could be punished harshly in the short term. My solution to alleviate this risk is simple: start with a small position, and build up from here over several quarters based on the company's execution.Is Snowflake's valuation still too rich for your blood?Do you believe the company has a long runway ahead?Would Snowflake qualify as a high-quality business in your selection process?Let me know in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029594728,"gmtCreate":1652796417264,"gmtModify":1676535163078,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029594728","repostId":"2236121088","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064707103,"gmtCreate":1652366481002,"gmtModify":1676535086238,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064707103","repostId":"2234991443","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2234991443","pubTimestamp":1652334079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2234991443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-12 13:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Upstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234991443","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Upstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.</li><li>Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting in lower approvals and conversion rates.</li><li>Balance sheet risk overblown given that it represents a small percentage of total loans transacted in 1Q22 and the need for it given the changing interest rate environment.</li><li>The sensitivity of Upstart&#39;s business to interest rates and delinquencies is not unique to Upstart and represents macro factors not within management control, which could be interesting to watch.</li><li>Based on my target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels and implies 30x/19x 2023F/2024F P/E respectively.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da553715610fcc0fa15f21b0966aefd8\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>DKosig/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>With the recent 56% drop in Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), I dive deeper into its recent 1Q22 earnings to find out if such a huge decline in share price is warranted.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e368732ad18af0e3f93e5da57764f6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><b>Investment thesis</b></p><p>I have written an initial article and subsequentarticle elaborating on the investment thesis for Upstart. There&#39;s lots that I am positive on with regards to Upstart, and here are the key investment highlights for the company:</p><ol><li>Upstart&#39;s superior Artificial Intelligence (AI) model brings real benefits to both consumers and its banking partners, and this AI competitive advantage will only improve and widen with time.</li><li>Capital light model as an intermediary between consumers and its banking partners.</li><li>Upstart is expanding its total addressable market (TAM) into the huge auto loan origination market, demonstrating a large market opportunity.</li><li>Upstart&#39;s margins and unit economics have seen improvements and will likely continue in that trend as a result of increased automation and scale.</li></ol><p><b>1Q22 in-line while guidance slightly weak</b></p><p>While 1Q22 results were in-line with expectations, the main disappointment came from the lower guidance as well as the increased use of the balance sheet for its loans (explained in the following section). The guidance was lowered to $1.25 billion for 2022, down from the initial guidance of $1.4 billion for 2022 in the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2022 was also guided downward from 17% in the prior quarter to 15% in the current quarter.</p><p>I think that the lower guidance is expected given the industry that Upstart is operating in. The lending industry is a cyclical industry and this is probably <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the more challenging environments in which it is operating right now. There are multiple headwinds for the lending industry and one of the biggest is the rising interest rates, rising delinquencies, and fears of a recession happening.</p><p>With the increased perceived risk in the economy, this is resulting in higher pricing on Upstart&#39;s platform as the investors in these loans require higher returns to compensate for this risk. As such, Upstart has seen a 300 basis point increase in the average loan pricing since October, as highlighted by management. This high pricing then results in lower approval rates and lower transaction volumes.</p><p>As such, the lowering of guidance is within my expectations as it represents an 11% decrease in revenue guidance. However, I think that we need to be aware of the downside risks, which includes a recession actually happening or the Fed increasing rates more than expected. These scenarios could result in significantly lower transaction volumes.</p><p><b>Use of balance sheet raises concerns</b></p><p>During the quarter, we saw Upstart&#39;s balance sheet loans rise from $260 million in the previous quarter to $605 million in 1Q22. Traditionally, if you recall from the previous article, the use of the balance sheet has only been exclusively used for Upstart&#39;s R&amp;D. As such, with an $345 million increase in loans on its balance sheets, I can see why this raises the eyebrows of some investors.</p><p>When I look closer into the management commentary during the earnings call, I gain a greater clarity into the context and the reason for use of balance sheet during the quarter.</p><p>First, I will touch on the context of this balance sheet risk. As highlighted by CFO Sanjay, the amount of platform loans that ended up in its balance sheet was in the single digit percentage compared to its total platform loans. Furthermore, of that single digit percentage of loans that end up in its balance sheet, three-quarters of it, or $454 million, is still used for R&amp;D, mainly in auto loans and other new products. As such, the remaining one-quarter, which makes up $150 million of loans, was put on the balance sheet. Putting this into context, Upstart had $4,535 million in transaction loan dollars in 1Q22, which means that this $150 million of loans that ended up in the balance sheet only account for 3% of total 1Q22 loans.</p><p>Second, I will touch on the reason for use of the balance sheet for these loans. CFO Sanjay gave a very good explanation of this, in my view. As highlighted before, historically, the company only used its balance sheet exclusively for R&amp;D. However, that was a different environment from what Upstart is operating in today. With interest rates changing quite quickly in the new interest rate environment, it needs to use the balance sheet loans as a market clearing mechanism, which acts as a temporary stop-gap measure in order for the platform to adjust to faster moving market rates. The need for this temporary measure is because the platform currently has a limited ability to react to fast moving rates as the process is rather manual at the moment. As a result, when rates move and investors are deciding what is the new hurdle return, the delay in funding as a result needs to be plugged in and that is where the $150 million of balance sheet loans not used for R&amp;D is used.</p><p>Although the use of the balance sheet does bring additional risks to Upstart, I think of this as a temporary measure that the company can leverage on to improve its response time to fast changing market conditions, and this will likely not be either sizable or long term, as reiterated by Sanjay as well. As Upstart uses its balance sheet in a controlled manner in the near term as a market clearing mechanism, this paves the way for Upstart to develop a more nimble and automated mechanism to improve its response time to market conditions.</p><p>Ultimately, as management highlighted, they view Upstart as a platform and not as one that holds excessive balance sheet risks. This platform should work as a marketplace where the discovery of price takes place as well as the funding of loans by institutional investors. This has worked fluidly in the past, and currently, is less fluid. As such, to ensure sufficient fluidity in the system, Upstart decided to use its balance sheet to act as a bridge. As highlighted before, the company is investing in its market clearing mechanism to ensure no or fewer balance sheet participation in the future.</p><p><b>Sensitivity to interest rates and delinquencies not unique to Upstart</b></p><p>Management highlighted several times both this quarter&#39;s and the previous quarter&#39;s earnings call that a rise in delinquencies is expected given the waning of government stimulus resulting in delinquencies normalising. As can be seen by the independent KBRA data, annualised net losses and delinquencies have risen across the board for tier 2 names like Upstart, Upgrade, Prosper and Lending Club Prime. This represents a normalisation of net losses and delinquencies to the pre-pandemic levels.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce5d82bf69aba109c21cef25428dcc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>KBRA Marketplace Consumer Loan Indices (KBRA; Citi)</span></p><p>This means that Upstart&#39;s loans have underperformed due to the changing credit conditions, and along with rising delinquencies, this results in a lower conversion rate for Upstart in 1Q22 of 21.4% compared to 24.4% in the prior quarter.</p><p>As such, for conversion rates to return to prior quarter levels, it is a function of interest rates and delinquencies. The higher the interest rates, the less likely conversion rates can improve as this means higher pricing for loans on its platform and lower acceptance rates. The higher the delinquencies, the higher the pricing for loans as well, leading to a similar outcome.</p><p>On a positive note, management highlighted that they have seen delinquency stabilise for the past 2 months. Furthermore, this trend of normalising of loss rates and delinquencies is clearly not unique to Upstart as it affects other tier 2 players as well. This is encouraging and worth watching going into the next quarter how well Upstart does compared to the other tier 2s. However, I am surprised by how sensitive Upstart&#39;s business is to higher interest rates and this may mean that Upstart may be more cyclical than what many investors initially thought.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>I am adjusting my model that was highlighted in my initial article for the changes in guidance as well as changing macro environment this year. I lower my nearer term financial forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to be more in-line with the 11% decrease in revenue guidance for 2022 announced in 1Q22 results. Further, I apply a higher discount rate to incorporate the heightened risks in the current macro environment, brings WACC up to 13%. Lastly, I adjusted the terminal growth rate down from 2% to 1.5%.</p><p>With that, my target price for Upstart is $80.17, implying an upside of 140% from current levels. The target price of $80.17 implies a 30x 2023F P/E and a 19x 2024F P/E, while earnings growth is expected to average 42% during that period according to Bloomberg consensus.</p><p>I think that based on my target price, the higher valuation multiple is warranted given that Upstart is a pure play company with a lending platform based on a proven AI model with a large expansion opportunity into different credit products.</p><p><b>RisksConcentration on unsecured personal loans</b></p><p>Although I mentioned earlier that Upstart has started venturing into auto loans and are looking into options into new products down the road, the majority of its revenues today come from its bread and butter unsecured personal loans segment. This, in my view, is a concentration risk from a business point of view. The roll out and execution of its expansion into new products and new loan categories could be positive to the share price but any slowing of deployment into these new categories and segments could be negative to share price.</p><p><b>Fluctuations in economic conditions</b></p><p>As with all credit issuers and players in the industry, Upstart&#39;s business model and its growth of loan volumes are both very vulnerable to drastic changes in the economy or to financial shocks. This could prove to be particularly painful for Upstart due to its inexperience in handling a downturn. Also, I believe that the risk might be further amplified for Upstart since their AI models have yet to be very extensively tested during a serious financial downturn. Although Upstart does not take balance sheet risks, this could very severely impact the platform and AI model&#39;s credibility.</p><p><b>Competition</b></p><p>Although Upstart has an advantage in its extensive use of AI and machine learning, it could be detrimental to Upstart if its competitors are able to build an AI model more superior to that of Upstart. Thus, it is crucial for Upstart to continue to invest in R&amp;D and continuously improve its AI models and machine learning capabilities to ensure a stronger competitive advantage and to have strong barriers of entry for competitors to establish a similar product.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>All in all, I think that Upstart&#39;s valuation is currently very attractive given the recent share price fall, which has skewed its risk/reward perspective positively. I think that while the lowered guidance may be disappointing, we have to remember that Upstart is in the lending business, which is inherently cyclical. This lowered guidance is understandable given the rising rates environment and normalising of delinquencies as the pandemic subsides.</p><p>However, the sensitivity of rising rates and delinquencies to the conversion rates and hence transaction volume, is something that I took away from the recent results. Lastly, on the increase of balance sheet loans, I think when we understand the context that it is small and temporary, and the reason behind it, the controlled use of balance sheet loans to act as the bridge to improve fluidity in the system is an essential one for the business in a challenging time. With a target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-12 13:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2234991443","content_text":"SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting in lower approvals and conversion rates.Balance sheet risk overblown given that it represents a small percentage of total loans transacted in 1Q22 and the need for it given the changing interest rate environment.The sensitivity of Upstart's business to interest rates and delinquencies is not unique to Upstart and represents macro factors not within management control, which could be interesting to watch.Based on my target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels and implies 30x/19x 2023F/2024F P/E respectively.DKosig/iStock via Getty ImagesWith the recent 56% drop in Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), I dive deeper into its recent 1Q22 earnings to find out if such a huge decline in share price is warranted.Data by YChartsInvestment thesisI have written an initial article and subsequentarticle elaborating on the investment thesis for Upstart. There's lots that I am positive on with regards to Upstart, and here are the key investment highlights for the company:Upstart's superior Artificial Intelligence (AI) model brings real benefits to both consumers and its banking partners, and this AI competitive advantage will only improve and widen with time.Capital light model as an intermediary between consumers and its banking partners.Upstart is expanding its total addressable market (TAM) into the huge auto loan origination market, demonstrating a large market opportunity.Upstart's margins and unit economics have seen improvements and will likely continue in that trend as a result of increased automation and scale.1Q22 in-line while guidance slightly weakWhile 1Q22 results were in-line with expectations, the main disappointment came from the lower guidance as well as the increased use of the balance sheet for its loans (explained in the following section). The guidance was lowered to $1.25 billion for 2022, down from the initial guidance of $1.4 billion for 2022 in the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2022 was also guided downward from 17% in the prior quarter to 15% in the current quarter.I think that the lower guidance is expected given the industry that Upstart is operating in. The lending industry is a cyclical industry and this is probably one of the more challenging environments in which it is operating right now. There are multiple headwinds for the lending industry and one of the biggest is the rising interest rates, rising delinquencies, and fears of a recession happening.With the increased perceived risk in the economy, this is resulting in higher pricing on Upstart's platform as the investors in these loans require higher returns to compensate for this risk. As such, Upstart has seen a 300 basis point increase in the average loan pricing since October, as highlighted by management. This high pricing then results in lower approval rates and lower transaction volumes.As such, the lowering of guidance is within my expectations as it represents an 11% decrease in revenue guidance. However, I think that we need to be aware of the downside risks, which includes a recession actually happening or the Fed increasing rates more than expected. These scenarios could result in significantly lower transaction volumes.Use of balance sheet raises concernsDuring the quarter, we saw Upstart's balance sheet loans rise from $260 million in the previous quarter to $605 million in 1Q22. Traditionally, if you recall from the previous article, the use of the balance sheet has only been exclusively used for Upstart's R&D. As such, with an $345 million increase in loans on its balance sheets, I can see why this raises the eyebrows of some investors.When I look closer into the management commentary during the earnings call, I gain a greater clarity into the context and the reason for use of balance sheet during the quarter.First, I will touch on the context of this balance sheet risk. As highlighted by CFO Sanjay, the amount of platform loans that ended up in its balance sheet was in the single digit percentage compared to its total platform loans. Furthermore, of that single digit percentage of loans that end up in its balance sheet, three-quarters of it, or $454 million, is still used for R&D, mainly in auto loans and other new products. As such, the remaining one-quarter, which makes up $150 million of loans, was put on the balance sheet. Putting this into context, Upstart had $4,535 million in transaction loan dollars in 1Q22, which means that this $150 million of loans that ended up in the balance sheet only account for 3% of total 1Q22 loans.Second, I will touch on the reason for use of the balance sheet for these loans. CFO Sanjay gave a very good explanation of this, in my view. As highlighted before, historically, the company only used its balance sheet exclusively for R&D. However, that was a different environment from what Upstart is operating in today. With interest rates changing quite quickly in the new interest rate environment, it needs to use the balance sheet loans as a market clearing mechanism, which acts as a temporary stop-gap measure in order for the platform to adjust to faster moving market rates. The need for this temporary measure is because the platform currently has a limited ability to react to fast moving rates as the process is rather manual at the moment. As a result, when rates move and investors are deciding what is the new hurdle return, the delay in funding as a result needs to be plugged in and that is where the $150 million of balance sheet loans not used for R&D is used.Although the use of the balance sheet does bring additional risks to Upstart, I think of this as a temporary measure that the company can leverage on to improve its response time to fast changing market conditions, and this will likely not be either sizable or long term, as reiterated by Sanjay as well. As Upstart uses its balance sheet in a controlled manner in the near term as a market clearing mechanism, this paves the way for Upstart to develop a more nimble and automated mechanism to improve its response time to market conditions.Ultimately, as management highlighted, they view Upstart as a platform and not as one that holds excessive balance sheet risks. This platform should work as a marketplace where the discovery of price takes place as well as the funding of loans by institutional investors. This has worked fluidly in the past, and currently, is less fluid. As such, to ensure sufficient fluidity in the system, Upstart decided to use its balance sheet to act as a bridge. As highlighted before, the company is investing in its market clearing mechanism to ensure no or fewer balance sheet participation in the future.Sensitivity to interest rates and delinquencies not unique to UpstartManagement highlighted several times both this quarter's and the previous quarter's earnings call that a rise in delinquencies is expected given the waning of government stimulus resulting in delinquencies normalising. As can be seen by the independent KBRA data, annualised net losses and delinquencies have risen across the board for tier 2 names like Upstart, Upgrade, Prosper and Lending Club Prime. This represents a normalisation of net losses and delinquencies to the pre-pandemic levels.KBRA Marketplace Consumer Loan Indices (KBRA; Citi)This means that Upstart's loans have underperformed due to the changing credit conditions, and along with rising delinquencies, this results in a lower conversion rate for Upstart in 1Q22 of 21.4% compared to 24.4% in the prior quarter.As such, for conversion rates to return to prior quarter levels, it is a function of interest rates and delinquencies. The higher the interest rates, the less likely conversion rates can improve as this means higher pricing for loans on its platform and lower acceptance rates. The higher the delinquencies, the higher the pricing for loans as well, leading to a similar outcome.On a positive note, management highlighted that they have seen delinquency stabilise for the past 2 months. Furthermore, this trend of normalising of loss rates and delinquencies is clearly not unique to Upstart as it affects other tier 2 players as well. This is encouraging and worth watching going into the next quarter how well Upstart does compared to the other tier 2s. However, I am surprised by how sensitive Upstart's business is to higher interest rates and this may mean that Upstart may be more cyclical than what many investors initially thought.ValuationI am adjusting my model that was highlighted in my initial article for the changes in guidance as well as changing macro environment this year. I lower my nearer term financial forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to be more in-line with the 11% decrease in revenue guidance for 2022 announced in 1Q22 results. Further, I apply a higher discount rate to incorporate the heightened risks in the current macro environment, brings WACC up to 13%. Lastly, I adjusted the terminal growth rate down from 2% to 1.5%.With that, my target price for Upstart is $80.17, implying an upside of 140% from current levels. The target price of $80.17 implies a 30x 2023F P/E and a 19x 2024F P/E, while earnings growth is expected to average 42% during that period according to Bloomberg consensus.I think that based on my target price, the higher valuation multiple is warranted given that Upstart is a pure play company with a lending platform based on a proven AI model with a large expansion opportunity into different credit products.RisksConcentration on unsecured personal loansAlthough I mentioned earlier that Upstart has started venturing into auto loans and are looking into options into new products down the road, the majority of its revenues today come from its bread and butter unsecured personal loans segment. This, in my view, is a concentration risk from a business point of view. The roll out and execution of its expansion into new products and new loan categories could be positive to the share price but any slowing of deployment into these new categories and segments could be negative to share price.Fluctuations in economic conditionsAs with all credit issuers and players in the industry, Upstart's business model and its growth of loan volumes are both very vulnerable to drastic changes in the economy or to financial shocks. This could prove to be particularly painful for Upstart due to its inexperience in handling a downturn. Also, I believe that the risk might be further amplified for Upstart since their AI models have yet to be very extensively tested during a serious financial downturn. Although Upstart does not take balance sheet risks, this could very severely impact the platform and AI model's credibility.CompetitionAlthough Upstart has an advantage in its extensive use of AI and machine learning, it could be detrimental to Upstart if its competitors are able to build an AI model more superior to that of Upstart. Thus, it is crucial for Upstart to continue to invest in R&D and continuously improve its AI models and machine learning capabilities to ensure a stronger competitive advantage and to have strong barriers of entry for competitors to establish a similar product.ConclusionAll in all, I think that Upstart's valuation is currently very attractive given the recent share price fall, which has skewed its risk/reward perspective positively. I think that while the lowered guidance may be disappointing, we have to remember that Upstart is in the lending business, which is inherently cyclical. This lowered guidance is understandable given the rising rates environment and normalising of delinquencies as the pandemic subsides.However, the sensitivity of rising rates and delinquencies to the conversion rates and hence transaction volume, is something that I took away from the recent results. Lastly, on the increase of balance sheet loans, I think when we understand the context that it is small and temporary, and the reason behind it, the controlled use of balance sheet loans to act as the bridge to improve fluidity in the system is an essential one for the business in a challenging time. With a target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064704473,"gmtCreate":1652366460192,"gmtModify":1676535086223,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it recovers","listText":"Hope it recovers","text":"Hope it recovers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064704473","repostId":"2234991443","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2234991443","pubTimestamp":1652334079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2234991443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-12 13:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Upstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234991443","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Upstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.</li><li>Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting in lower approvals and conversion rates.</li><li>Balance sheet risk overblown given that it represents a small percentage of total loans transacted in 1Q22 and the need for it given the changing interest rate environment.</li><li>The sensitivity of Upstart&#39;s business to interest rates and delinquencies is not unique to Upstart and represents macro factors not within management control, which could be interesting to watch.</li><li>Based on my target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels and implies 30x/19x 2023F/2024F P/E respectively.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da553715610fcc0fa15f21b0966aefd8\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>DKosig/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>With the recent 56% drop in Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), I dive deeper into its recent 1Q22 earnings to find out if such a huge decline in share price is warranted.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e368732ad18af0e3f93e5da57764f6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><b>Investment thesis</b></p><p>I have written an initial article and subsequentarticle elaborating on the investment thesis for Upstart. There&#39;s lots that I am positive on with regards to Upstart, and here are the key investment highlights for the company:</p><ol><li>Upstart&#39;s superior Artificial Intelligence (AI) model brings real benefits to both consumers and its banking partners, and this AI competitive advantage will only improve and widen with time.</li><li>Capital light model as an intermediary between consumers and its banking partners.</li><li>Upstart is expanding its total addressable market (TAM) into the huge auto loan origination market, demonstrating a large market opportunity.</li><li>Upstart&#39;s margins and unit economics have seen improvements and will likely continue in that trend as a result of increased automation and scale.</li></ol><p><b>1Q22 in-line while guidance slightly weak</b></p><p>While 1Q22 results were in-line with expectations, the main disappointment came from the lower guidance as well as the increased use of the balance sheet for its loans (explained in the following section). The guidance was lowered to $1.25 billion for 2022, down from the initial guidance of $1.4 billion for 2022 in the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2022 was also guided downward from 17% in the prior quarter to 15% in the current quarter.</p><p>I think that the lower guidance is expected given the industry that Upstart is operating in. The lending industry is a cyclical industry and this is probably <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the more challenging environments in which it is operating right now. There are multiple headwinds for the lending industry and one of the biggest is the rising interest rates, rising delinquencies, and fears of a recession happening.</p><p>With the increased perceived risk in the economy, this is resulting in higher pricing on Upstart&#39;s platform as the investors in these loans require higher returns to compensate for this risk. As such, Upstart has seen a 300 basis point increase in the average loan pricing since October, as highlighted by management. This high pricing then results in lower approval rates and lower transaction volumes.</p><p>As such, the lowering of guidance is within my expectations as it represents an 11% decrease in revenue guidance. However, I think that we need to be aware of the downside risks, which includes a recession actually happening or the Fed increasing rates more than expected. These scenarios could result in significantly lower transaction volumes.</p><p><b>Use of balance sheet raises concerns</b></p><p>During the quarter, we saw Upstart&#39;s balance sheet loans rise from $260 million in the previous quarter to $605 million in 1Q22. Traditionally, if you recall from the previous article, the use of the balance sheet has only been exclusively used for Upstart&#39;s R&amp;D. As such, with an $345 million increase in loans on its balance sheets, I can see why this raises the eyebrows of some investors.</p><p>When I look closer into the management commentary during the earnings call, I gain a greater clarity into the context and the reason for use of balance sheet during the quarter.</p><p>First, I will touch on the context of this balance sheet risk. As highlighted by CFO Sanjay, the amount of platform loans that ended up in its balance sheet was in the single digit percentage compared to its total platform loans. Furthermore, of that single digit percentage of loans that end up in its balance sheet, three-quarters of it, or $454 million, is still used for R&amp;D, mainly in auto loans and other new products. As such, the remaining one-quarter, which makes up $150 million of loans, was put on the balance sheet. Putting this into context, Upstart had $4,535 million in transaction loan dollars in 1Q22, which means that this $150 million of loans that ended up in the balance sheet only account for 3% of total 1Q22 loans.</p><p>Second, I will touch on the reason for use of the balance sheet for these loans. CFO Sanjay gave a very good explanation of this, in my view. As highlighted before, historically, the company only used its balance sheet exclusively for R&amp;D. However, that was a different environment from what Upstart is operating in today. With interest rates changing quite quickly in the new interest rate environment, it needs to use the balance sheet loans as a market clearing mechanism, which acts as a temporary stop-gap measure in order for the platform to adjust to faster moving market rates. The need for this temporary measure is because the platform currently has a limited ability to react to fast moving rates as the process is rather manual at the moment. As a result, when rates move and investors are deciding what is the new hurdle return, the delay in funding as a result needs to be plugged in and that is where the $150 million of balance sheet loans not used for R&amp;D is used.</p><p>Although the use of the balance sheet does bring additional risks to Upstart, I think of this as a temporary measure that the company can leverage on to improve its response time to fast changing market conditions, and this will likely not be either sizable or long term, as reiterated by Sanjay as well. As Upstart uses its balance sheet in a controlled manner in the near term as a market clearing mechanism, this paves the way for Upstart to develop a more nimble and automated mechanism to improve its response time to market conditions.</p><p>Ultimately, as management highlighted, they view Upstart as a platform and not as one that holds excessive balance sheet risks. This platform should work as a marketplace where the discovery of price takes place as well as the funding of loans by institutional investors. This has worked fluidly in the past, and currently, is less fluid. As such, to ensure sufficient fluidity in the system, Upstart decided to use its balance sheet to act as a bridge. As highlighted before, the company is investing in its market clearing mechanism to ensure no or fewer balance sheet participation in the future.</p><p><b>Sensitivity to interest rates and delinquencies not unique to Upstart</b></p><p>Management highlighted several times both this quarter&#39;s and the previous quarter&#39;s earnings call that a rise in delinquencies is expected given the waning of government stimulus resulting in delinquencies normalising. As can be seen by the independent KBRA data, annualised net losses and delinquencies have risen across the board for tier 2 names like Upstart, Upgrade, Prosper and Lending Club Prime. This represents a normalisation of net losses and delinquencies to the pre-pandemic levels.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce5d82bf69aba109c21cef25428dcc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>KBRA Marketplace Consumer Loan Indices (KBRA; Citi)</span></p><p>This means that Upstart&#39;s loans have underperformed due to the changing credit conditions, and along with rising delinquencies, this results in a lower conversion rate for Upstart in 1Q22 of 21.4% compared to 24.4% in the prior quarter.</p><p>As such, for conversion rates to return to prior quarter levels, it is a function of interest rates and delinquencies. The higher the interest rates, the less likely conversion rates can improve as this means higher pricing for loans on its platform and lower acceptance rates. The higher the delinquencies, the higher the pricing for loans as well, leading to a similar outcome.</p><p>On a positive note, management highlighted that they have seen delinquency stabilise for the past 2 months. Furthermore, this trend of normalising of loss rates and delinquencies is clearly not unique to Upstart as it affects other tier 2 players as well. This is encouraging and worth watching going into the next quarter how well Upstart does compared to the other tier 2s. However, I am surprised by how sensitive Upstart&#39;s business is to higher interest rates and this may mean that Upstart may be more cyclical than what many investors initially thought.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>I am adjusting my model that was highlighted in my initial article for the changes in guidance as well as changing macro environment this year. I lower my nearer term financial forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to be more in-line with the 11% decrease in revenue guidance for 2022 announced in 1Q22 results. Further, I apply a higher discount rate to incorporate the heightened risks in the current macro environment, brings WACC up to 13%. Lastly, I adjusted the terminal growth rate down from 2% to 1.5%.</p><p>With that, my target price for Upstart is $80.17, implying an upside of 140% from current levels. The target price of $80.17 implies a 30x 2023F P/E and a 19x 2024F P/E, while earnings growth is expected to average 42% during that period according to Bloomberg consensus.</p><p>I think that based on my target price, the higher valuation multiple is warranted given that Upstart is a pure play company with a lending platform based on a proven AI model with a large expansion opportunity into different credit products.</p><p><b>RisksConcentration on unsecured personal loans</b></p><p>Although I mentioned earlier that Upstart has started venturing into auto loans and are looking into options into new products down the road, the majority of its revenues today come from its bread and butter unsecured personal loans segment. This, in my view, is a concentration risk from a business point of view. The roll out and execution of its expansion into new products and new loan categories could be positive to the share price but any slowing of deployment into these new categories and segments could be negative to share price.</p><p><b>Fluctuations in economic conditions</b></p><p>As with all credit issuers and players in the industry, Upstart&#39;s business model and its growth of loan volumes are both very vulnerable to drastic changes in the economy or to financial shocks. This could prove to be particularly painful for Upstart due to its inexperience in handling a downturn. Also, I believe that the risk might be further amplified for Upstart since their AI models have yet to be very extensively tested during a serious financial downturn. Although Upstart does not take balance sheet risks, this could very severely impact the platform and AI model&#39;s credibility.</p><p><b>Competition</b></p><p>Although Upstart has an advantage in its extensive use of AI and machine learning, it could be detrimental to Upstart if its competitors are able to build an AI model more superior to that of Upstart. Thus, it is crucial for Upstart to continue to invest in R&amp;D and continuously improve its AI models and machine learning capabilities to ensure a stronger competitive advantage and to have strong barriers of entry for competitors to establish a similar product.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>All in all, I think that Upstart&#39;s valuation is currently very attractive given the recent share price fall, which has skewed its risk/reward perspective positively. I think that while the lowered guidance may be disappointing, we have to remember that Upstart is in the lending business, which is inherently cyclical. This lowered guidance is understandable given the rising rates environment and normalising of delinquencies as the pandemic subsides.</p><p>However, the sensitivity of rising rates and delinquencies to the conversion rates and hence transaction volume, is something that I took away from the recent results. Lastly, on the increase of balance sheet loans, I think when we understand the context that it is small and temporary, and the reason behind it, the controlled use of balance sheet loans to act as the bridge to improve fluidity in the system is an essential one for the business in a challenging time. With a target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-12 13:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2234991443","content_text":"SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting in lower approvals and conversion rates.Balance sheet risk overblown given that it represents a small percentage of total loans transacted in 1Q22 and the need for it given the changing interest rate environment.The sensitivity of Upstart's business to interest rates and delinquencies is not unique to Upstart and represents macro factors not within management control, which could be interesting to watch.Based on my target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels and implies 30x/19x 2023F/2024F P/E respectively.DKosig/iStock via Getty ImagesWith the recent 56% drop in Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), I dive deeper into its recent 1Q22 earnings to find out if such a huge decline in share price is warranted.Data by YChartsInvestment thesisI have written an initial article and subsequentarticle elaborating on the investment thesis for Upstart. There's lots that I am positive on with regards to Upstart, and here are the key investment highlights for the company:Upstart's superior Artificial Intelligence (AI) model brings real benefits to both consumers and its banking partners, and this AI competitive advantage will only improve and widen with time.Capital light model as an intermediary between consumers and its banking partners.Upstart is expanding its total addressable market (TAM) into the huge auto loan origination market, demonstrating a large market opportunity.Upstart's margins and unit economics have seen improvements and will likely continue in that trend as a result of increased automation and scale.1Q22 in-line while guidance slightly weakWhile 1Q22 results were in-line with expectations, the main disappointment came from the lower guidance as well as the increased use of the balance sheet for its loans (explained in the following section). The guidance was lowered to $1.25 billion for 2022, down from the initial guidance of $1.4 billion for 2022 in the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2022 was also guided downward from 17% in the prior quarter to 15% in the current quarter.I think that the lower guidance is expected given the industry that Upstart is operating in. The lending industry is a cyclical industry and this is probably one of the more challenging environments in which it is operating right now. There are multiple headwinds for the lending industry and one of the biggest is the rising interest rates, rising delinquencies, and fears of a recession happening.With the increased perceived risk in the economy, this is resulting in higher pricing on Upstart's platform as the investors in these loans require higher returns to compensate for this risk. As such, Upstart has seen a 300 basis point increase in the average loan pricing since October, as highlighted by management. This high pricing then results in lower approval rates and lower transaction volumes.As such, the lowering of guidance is within my expectations as it represents an 11% decrease in revenue guidance. However, I think that we need to be aware of the downside risks, which includes a recession actually happening or the Fed increasing rates more than expected. These scenarios could result in significantly lower transaction volumes.Use of balance sheet raises concernsDuring the quarter, we saw Upstart's balance sheet loans rise from $260 million in the previous quarter to $605 million in 1Q22. Traditionally, if you recall from the previous article, the use of the balance sheet has only been exclusively used for Upstart's R&D. As such, with an $345 million increase in loans on its balance sheets, I can see why this raises the eyebrows of some investors.When I look closer into the management commentary during the earnings call, I gain a greater clarity into the context and the reason for use of balance sheet during the quarter.First, I will touch on the context of this balance sheet risk. As highlighted by CFO Sanjay, the amount of platform loans that ended up in its balance sheet was in the single digit percentage compared to its total platform loans. Furthermore, of that single digit percentage of loans that end up in its balance sheet, three-quarters of it, or $454 million, is still used for R&D, mainly in auto loans and other new products. As such, the remaining one-quarter, which makes up $150 million of loans, was put on the balance sheet. Putting this into context, Upstart had $4,535 million in transaction loan dollars in 1Q22, which means that this $150 million of loans that ended up in the balance sheet only account for 3% of total 1Q22 loans.Second, I will touch on the reason for use of the balance sheet for these loans. CFO Sanjay gave a very good explanation of this, in my view. As highlighted before, historically, the company only used its balance sheet exclusively for R&D. However, that was a different environment from what Upstart is operating in today. With interest rates changing quite quickly in the new interest rate environment, it needs to use the balance sheet loans as a market clearing mechanism, which acts as a temporary stop-gap measure in order for the platform to adjust to faster moving market rates. The need for this temporary measure is because the platform currently has a limited ability to react to fast moving rates as the process is rather manual at the moment. As a result, when rates move and investors are deciding what is the new hurdle return, the delay in funding as a result needs to be plugged in and that is where the $150 million of balance sheet loans not used for R&D is used.Although the use of the balance sheet does bring additional risks to Upstart, I think of this as a temporary measure that the company can leverage on to improve its response time to fast changing market conditions, and this will likely not be either sizable or long term, as reiterated by Sanjay as well. As Upstart uses its balance sheet in a controlled manner in the near term as a market clearing mechanism, this paves the way for Upstart to develop a more nimble and automated mechanism to improve its response time to market conditions.Ultimately, as management highlighted, they view Upstart as a platform and not as one that holds excessive balance sheet risks. This platform should work as a marketplace where the discovery of price takes place as well as the funding of loans by institutional investors. This has worked fluidly in the past, and currently, is less fluid. As such, to ensure sufficient fluidity in the system, Upstart decided to use its balance sheet to act as a bridge. As highlighted before, the company is investing in its market clearing mechanism to ensure no or fewer balance sheet participation in the future.Sensitivity to interest rates and delinquencies not unique to UpstartManagement highlighted several times both this quarter's and the previous quarter's earnings call that a rise in delinquencies is expected given the waning of government stimulus resulting in delinquencies normalising. As can be seen by the independent KBRA data, annualised net losses and delinquencies have risen across the board for tier 2 names like Upstart, Upgrade, Prosper and Lending Club Prime. This represents a normalisation of net losses and delinquencies to the pre-pandemic levels.KBRA Marketplace Consumer Loan Indices (KBRA; Citi)This means that Upstart's loans have underperformed due to the changing credit conditions, and along with rising delinquencies, this results in a lower conversion rate for Upstart in 1Q22 of 21.4% compared to 24.4% in the prior quarter.As such, for conversion rates to return to prior quarter levels, it is a function of interest rates and delinquencies. The higher the interest rates, the less likely conversion rates can improve as this means higher pricing for loans on its platform and lower acceptance rates. The higher the delinquencies, the higher the pricing for loans as well, leading to a similar outcome.On a positive note, management highlighted that they have seen delinquency stabilise for the past 2 months. Furthermore, this trend of normalising of loss rates and delinquencies is clearly not unique to Upstart as it affects other tier 2 players as well. This is encouraging and worth watching going into the next quarter how well Upstart does compared to the other tier 2s. However, I am surprised by how sensitive Upstart's business is to higher interest rates and this may mean that Upstart may be more cyclical than what many investors initially thought.ValuationI am adjusting my model that was highlighted in my initial article for the changes in guidance as well as changing macro environment this year. I lower my nearer term financial forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to be more in-line with the 11% decrease in revenue guidance for 2022 announced in 1Q22 results. Further, I apply a higher discount rate to incorporate the heightened risks in the current macro environment, brings WACC up to 13%. Lastly, I adjusted the terminal growth rate down from 2% to 1.5%.With that, my target price for Upstart is $80.17, implying an upside of 140% from current levels. The target price of $80.17 implies a 30x 2023F P/E and a 19x 2024F P/E, while earnings growth is expected to average 42% during that period according to Bloomberg consensus.I think that based on my target price, the higher valuation multiple is warranted given that Upstart is a pure play company with a lending platform based on a proven AI model with a large expansion opportunity into different credit products.RisksConcentration on unsecured personal loansAlthough I mentioned earlier that Upstart has started venturing into auto loans and are looking into options into new products down the road, the majority of its revenues today come from its bread and butter unsecured personal loans segment. This, in my view, is a concentration risk from a business point of view. The roll out and execution of its expansion into new products and new loan categories could be positive to the share price but any slowing of deployment into these new categories and segments could be negative to share price.Fluctuations in economic conditionsAs with all credit issuers and players in the industry, Upstart's business model and its growth of loan volumes are both very vulnerable to drastic changes in the economy or to financial shocks. This could prove to be particularly painful for Upstart due to its inexperience in handling a downturn. Also, I believe that the risk might be further amplified for Upstart since their AI models have yet to be very extensively tested during a serious financial downturn. Although Upstart does not take balance sheet risks, this could very severely impact the platform and AI model's credibility.CompetitionAlthough Upstart has an advantage in its extensive use of AI and machine learning, it could be detrimental to Upstart if its competitors are able to build an AI model more superior to that of Upstart. Thus, it is crucial for Upstart to continue to invest in R&D and continuously improve its AI models and machine learning capabilities to ensure a stronger competitive advantage and to have strong barriers of entry for competitors to establish a similar product.ConclusionAll in all, I think that Upstart's valuation is currently very attractive given the recent share price fall, which has skewed its risk/reward perspective positively. I think that while the lowered guidance may be disappointing, we have to remember that Upstart is in the lending business, which is inherently cyclical. This lowered guidance is understandable given the rising rates environment and normalising of delinquencies as the pandemic subsides.However, the sensitivity of rising rates and delinquencies to the conversion rates and hence transaction volume, is something that I took away from the recent results. Lastly, on the increase of balance sheet loans, I think when we understand the context that it is small and temporary, and the reason behind it, the controlled use of balance sheet loans to act as the bridge to improve fluidity in the system is an essential one for the business in a challenging time. With a target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089605703,"gmtCreate":1649985507219,"gmtModify":1676534621903,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089605703","repostId":"1133070824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133070824","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649399100,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133070824?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-08 14:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reminder: Holiday Trading Hours during Good Friday and Easter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133070824","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock markets will be closed Friday, April 15in observance of Good Friday.The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will resume normal trading hours on Monday.The Securities Industry and Financi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stock markets will be closed Friday, April 15 in observance of Good Friday.</p><p>The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will resume normal trading hours on Monday.</p><p>The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommended the U.S. bond market close Friday. It also advised that the bond market shutter early on Thursday, April14 at 2 p.m. Eastern.</p><p>U.S. commodities markets including gold and oil futures also won&#39;t be open for trading Friday.</p><p>Singapore stock markets will also close on Good Friday.</p><p>Stock markets in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia will close on Good Friday and on Monday in observance of Easter.</p><p>A-shares (Northbound) will be closed to April 18 from April 14.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d9bbb655e7216a0c27a0cb94e0d0875\" tg-width=\"1482\" tg-height=\"1328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Good Friday commemorates the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. It isn’t a federal holiday, which means businesses often stay open. Good Friday is the only time U.S. markets close for the day outside of federal holidays.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Holiday Trading Hours during Good Friday and Easter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Holiday Trading Hours during Good Friday and Easter\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-08 14:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stock markets will be closed Friday, April 15 in observance of Good Friday.</p><p>The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will resume normal trading hours on Monday.</p><p>The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommended the U.S. bond market close Friday. It also advised that the bond market shutter early on Thursday, April14 at 2 p.m. Eastern.</p><p>U.S. commodities markets including gold and oil futures also won&#39;t be open for trading Friday.</p><p>Singapore stock markets will also close on Good Friday.</p><p>Stock markets in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia will close on Good Friday and on Monday in observance of Easter.</p><p>A-shares (Northbound) will be closed to April 18 from April 14.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d9bbb655e7216a0c27a0cb94e0d0875\" tg-width=\"1482\" tg-height=\"1328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Good Friday commemorates the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. It isn’t a federal holiday, which means businesses often stay open. Good Friday is the only time U.S. markets close for the day outside of federal holidays.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133070824","content_text":"U.S. stock markets will be closed Friday, April 15 in observance of Good Friday.The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will resume normal trading hours on Monday.The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommended the U.S. bond market close Friday. It also advised that the bond market shutter early on Thursday, April14 at 2 p.m. Eastern.U.S. commodities markets including gold and oil futures also won't be open for trading Friday.Singapore stock markets will also close on Good Friday.Stock markets in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia will close on Good Friday and on Monday in observance of Easter.A-shares (Northbound) will be closed to April 18 from April 14.Good Friday commemorates the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. It isn’t a federal holiday, which means businesses often stay open. Good Friday is the only time U.S. markets close for the day outside of federal holidays.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080970885,"gmtCreate":1649838509609,"gmtModify":1676534587235,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080970885","repostId":"1179497108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179497108","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649837826,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179497108?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-13 16:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Jumped 1.52% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179497108","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla had quietly continued taking pre-orders for the company’s next-generation Roadster sports car ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla had quietly continued taking pre-orders for the company’s next-generation Roadster sports car over the weekend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ea5b280cc585dd3e8627dd44db83af9\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"669\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The automaker had closed reservations for Founders Series versions in December 2021. However, the page has conveniently left out how much the car would cost. Customers wishing to reserve the vehicle are asked to instantly pay $5,000, requiring the remaining $45,000 deposit within ten days. Initially, the price of a Tesla Roadster was $200,000, and for a Founders Series Signature version, it was $250,000.</p><p>The car will still deliver a 0-60 mph time of around 1.9 seconds, go 0-100 in just over four seconds, and reach speeds upwards of 250 mph. Plus, Tesla wants it to go over 600 miles on a charge. The car also sits four and comes with a glass roof.</p><p>Tesla Roadster production should start a little later in 2023 following the Cybertruck.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Jumped 1.52% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Jumped 1.52% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-13 16:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla had quietly continued taking pre-orders for the company’s next-generation Roadster sports car over the weekend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ea5b280cc585dd3e8627dd44db83af9\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"669\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The automaker had closed reservations for Founders Series versions in December 2021. However, the page has conveniently left out how much the car would cost. Customers wishing to reserve the vehicle are asked to instantly pay $5,000, requiring the remaining $45,000 deposit within ten days. Initially, the price of a Tesla Roadster was $200,000, and for a Founders Series Signature version, it was $250,000.</p><p>The car will still deliver a 0-60 mph time of around 1.9 seconds, go 0-100 in just over four seconds, and reach speeds upwards of 250 mph. Plus, Tesla wants it to go over 600 miles on a charge. The car also sits four and comes with a glass roof.</p><p>Tesla Roadster production should start a little later in 2023 following the Cybertruck.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179497108","content_text":"Tesla had quietly continued taking pre-orders for the company’s next-generation Roadster sports car over the weekend.The automaker had closed reservations for Founders Series versions in December 2021. However, the page has conveniently left out how much the car would cost. Customers wishing to reserve the vehicle are asked to instantly pay $5,000, requiring the remaining $45,000 deposit within ten days. Initially, the price of a Tesla Roadster was $200,000, and for a Founders Series Signature version, it was $250,000.The car will still deliver a 0-60 mph time of around 1.9 seconds, go 0-100 in just over four seconds, and reach speeds upwards of 250 mph. Plus, Tesla wants it to go over 600 miles on a charge. The car also sits four and comes with a glass roof.Tesla Roadster production should start a little later in 2023 following the Cybertruck.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018096083,"gmtCreate":1648946514584,"gmtModify":1676534425027,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018096083","repostId":"2224327072","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2224327072","pubTimestamp":1648938723,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2224327072?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-03 06:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shipped record 310,000 cars in Q1, slightly trailing analyst forecasts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2224327072","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images   Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported Saturday that it deliv","content":"<html><body><p><figure> <picture> <img height=\"1024px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture> <figcaption><p>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</p></figcaption> </figure></p> <div> <p>Tesla (<span>NASDAQ:TSLA</span>) reported Saturday that it delivered some 310,000 vehicles during Q1 – a record<span> number of shipments, but a level that slightly trailed analyst forecasts.</span></p> <p>The electric-vehicle maker said it delivered 310,048 cars during the latest quarter, up 67.8% from 184,800 vehicles shipped in the same period last year. Shipments also rose about 0.5% from Q4, when the company delivered its previous record of 308,600 vehicles.</p> <p>Still, the latest period's shipments trailed analysts' reported consensus estimate of 317,000 vehicles.</p> <p>Analysts had predicted the computer-chip shortage that's currently hitting automakers the world over would hurt TSLA's Q1 output. However, the company said in a statement Saturday that it managed to ship the number of cars it did \"despite ongoing supply-chain challenges and factory shutdowns.\"</p> <p>Tesla (TSLA) added that shipments during the latest period consisted of about 295,300 Model 3 and Y vehicles, as well as 14,700 Model S and X cars.</p> <p>Additionally, TSLA reported that actually built 305,407 vehicles during the latest quarter. That's down slightly from the 305,840 cars that Tesla (TSLA) produced in Q4, but up 69.4% from the 180,338 units the firm churned out in the same period last year.</p> <p>TSLA recently opened a new plant in Germany, and also cut the ribbon on a production facility in Texas last year.</p> <p>Tesla also disclosed Saturday that it will release Q1 earnings on April 20 after the market closes. The company said executives will also host a live Webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET that day to discuss the company's quarterly results.</p> </div></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shipped record 310,000 cars in Q1, slightly trailing analyst forecasts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shipped record 310,000 cars in Q1, slightly trailing analyst forecasts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-03 06:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3820179-tesla-shipped-record-310000-cars-in-q1-slightly-trailing-analyst-forecasts><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images   Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported Saturday that it delivered some 310,000 vehicles during Q1 – a record number of shipments, but a level that slightly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3820179-tesla-shipped-record-310000-cars-in-q1-slightly-trailing-analyst-forecasts\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3820179-tesla-shipped-record-310000-cars-in-q1-slightly-trailing-analyst-forecasts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2224327072","content_text":"jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images   Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported Saturday that it delivered some 310,000 vehicles during Q1 – a record number of shipments, but a level that slightly trailed analyst forecasts. The electric-vehicle maker said it delivered 310,048 cars during the latest quarter, up 67.8% from 184,800 vehicles shipped in the same period last year. Shipments also rose about 0.5% from Q4, when the company delivered its previous record of 308,600 vehicles. Still, the latest period's shipments trailed analysts' reported consensus estimate of 317,000 vehicles. Analysts had predicted the computer-chip shortage that's currently hitting automakers the world over would hurt TSLA's Q1 output. However, the company said in a statement Saturday that it managed to ship the number of cars it did \"despite ongoing supply-chain challenges and factory shutdowns.\" Tesla (TSLA) added that shipments during the latest period consisted of about 295,300 Model 3 and Y vehicles, as well as 14,700 Model S and X cars. Additionally, TSLA reported that actually built 305,407 vehicles during the latest quarter. That's down slightly from the 305,840 cars that Tesla (TSLA) produced in Q4, but up 69.4% from the 180,338 units the firm churned out in the same period last year. TSLA recently opened a new plant in Germany, and also cut the ribbon on a production facility in Texas last year. Tesla also disclosed Saturday that it will release Q1 earnings on April 20 after the market closes. The company said executives will also host a live Webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET that day to discuss the company's quarterly results.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032376011,"gmtCreate":1647301458951,"gmtModify":1676534213142,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪","listText":"💪","text":"💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032376011","repostId":"2219720135","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036061255,"gmtCreate":1646952037216,"gmtModify":1676534179841,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036061255","repostId":"2218123147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039978497,"gmtCreate":1645916699047,"gmtModify":1676534073601,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039978497","repostId":"9030487350","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9030487350,"gmtCreate":1645786805505,"gmtModify":1676534064206,"author":{"id":"9000000000000419","authorId":"9000000000000419","name":"WallStreet_Tiger","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1fdbba25bcf5dea3f281241ba1320d10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Sharp Reversal in USD, Bonds & Stocks: Is US Really a Safe Haven?","htmlText":"It turns out that ever since the financial crisis time and again anytime there is financial turmoil anywhere in the world including in the US itself money tends to come to the US&nbsp;in search of a safe haven. The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance in 2014 US&nbsp;is the ultimate safe haven for your money. It’s largely insulated from the Russia-Ukraine war fallout. Blackstone’s Joe Zidle says&nbsp;in&nbsp;2022 It&nbsp;looks&nbsp;like&nbsp;after&nbsp;8&nbsp;years,&nbsp;the&nbsp;world&nbsp;is&nbsp;still&nbsp;trapped&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;\"dollar&nbsp;trap\"&nbsp;and&nbsp;US&nbsp;remains&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;the&nbsp;top&nbsp;safe&nbsp;haven.&nbsp; What&nbsp;kinds&nbsp;of&nbsp;Safe&nbsp;Assets&nbsp;can&nbsp;we&nbsp;buy? Safe Asset includes: 1) Currency: th","listText":"It turns out that ever since the financial crisis time and again anytime there is financial turmoil anywhere in the world including in the US itself money tends to come to the US&nbsp;in search of a safe haven. The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance in 2014 US&nbsp;is the ultimate safe haven for your money. It’s largely insulated from the Russia-Ukraine war fallout. Blackstone’s Joe Zidle says&nbsp;in&nbsp;2022 It&nbsp;looks&nbsp;like&nbsp;after&nbsp;8&nbsp;years,&nbsp;the&nbsp;world&nbsp;is&nbsp;still&nbsp;trapped&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;\"dollar&nbsp;trap\"&nbsp;and&nbsp;US&nbsp;remains&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;the&nbsp;top&nbsp;safe&nbsp;haven.&nbsp; What&nbsp;kinds&nbsp;of&nbsp;Safe&nbsp;Assets&nbsp;can&nbsp;we&nbsp;buy? Safe Asset includes: 1) Currency: th","text":"It turns out that ever since the financial crisis time and again anytime there is financial turmoil anywhere in the world including in the US itself money tends to come to the US in search of a safe haven. The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance in 2014 US is the ultimate safe haven for your money. It’s largely insulated from the Russia-Ukraine war fallout. Blackstone’s Joe Zidle says in 2022 It looks like after 8 years, the world is still trapped in the \"dollar trap\" and US remains to be the top safe haven. What kinds of Safe Assets can we buy? Safe Asset includes: 1) Currency: th","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40180a293d6fa23d2dcba5a867d04011","width":"727","height":"485"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a29163e501f51f73816b6004a53a877","width":"743","height":"443"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b9b1eb8dfca7470ec0834733f77658b","width":"831","height":"456"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030487350","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097939683,"gmtCreate":1645311780520,"gmtModify":1676534016714,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097939683","repostId":"2212268576","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2212268576","pubTimestamp":1645227827,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2212268576?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-19 07:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Smartest Stocks to Buy if the Stock Market Plunges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212268576","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"When crashes and corrections rear their head, so does the opportunity for investors.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Since the beginning of the year, Wall Street and investors have been given a reminder that stock market crashes and corrections are perfectly normal occurrences. The double-digit percentage decline the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> experienced in January marks the 39th correction of at least 10% for the widely followed index since the beginning of 1950.</p><p>But where there are crashes and corrections, there&#39;s also opportunity. That&#39;s because every sizable decline in the S&amp;P 500 has eventually been put in the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. If the broader market were to continue to plunge, the following four companies would be some of the smartest stocks to buy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5364080a57bed47540a161b8615747\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Berkshire Hathaway</h2><p>In a world where growth stocks have dominated, perhaps no company has more consistently outperformed the broader market for decades than <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B).</p><p>Berkshire might not be a household name, but its CEO, billionaire Warren Buffett, certainly is. Since taking the reins in 1965, Buffett has led his company&#39;s Class A shares (BRK.A) to an average annual gain of better than 20%. In aggregate, we&#39;re talking about a total gain of around 3,800,000% in 57 years.</p><p>One of the key reasons the Oracle of Omaha is such a successful investor is due to his company&#39;s focus on cyclical businesses. Cyclical companies thrive when the economy is running on all cylinders and struggle when recessions arise. Buffett fully understands that recessions typically last for a few months to a couple of quarters. Comparatively, periods of expansion usually last for years, if not a decade. Warren Buffett is allowing time to be his ally and playing a simple numbers game that works in favor of ultra-long-term investors.</p><p>The other not-so-subtle secret to Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s outperformance is dividend income. This year, Buffett&#39;s company is on pace to collect over $5 billion in payouts, which works out to a yield relative to cost of around 5%. Dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested. This means Buffett and his team have packed Berkshire&#39;s portfolio with successful businesses that can navigate whatever the U.S. economy and stock market throw their way.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13f98298635a74f4491a99bf47eeded\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a></h2><p>Healthcare stocks are usually a wise place to put your money to work if the market plunges. That&#39;s why pharmacy chain and value stock <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b> (NASDAQ:WBA) would be such a smart buy.</p><p>No matter how well or poorly the U.S. economy performs, or how high the year-over-year inflation figure rises, people don&#39;t get to choose when they get sick or what ailment(s) they develop. This means demand for prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services tends to remain steady in any economic environment.</p><p>What specifically makes Walgreens so intriguing is the company&#39;s multipoint growth strategy targeting higher margins and a faster organic growth rate. To lift margins, the company has reduced its annual operating expenses by more than $2 billion a full fiscal year ahead of schedule.</p><p>Meanwhile, to boost the company&#39;s organic growth rate, Walgreens is spending aggressively on two key initiatives. First, it&#39;s actively promoting direct-to-consumer sales. Even though the company&#39;s brick-and-mortar locations will account for the lion&#39;s share of revenue, online sales are an easy way to boost organic growth as consumers shift their buying habits.</p><p>Second, Walgreens has partnered with, and invested in, VillageMD to open upwards of 600 co-located, full-service clinics by 2025 in over 30 U.S. markets. These physician-staffed clinics can be used to funnel repeat clients to the company&#39;s higher-margin pharmacy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68ecb34d6e4fd6f7dc599908229a09a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a></h2><p>Another exceptionally smart stock to buy if the market plunges is cybersecurity powerhouse and growth stock <b>Palo Alto Networks</b> (NASDAQ:PANW).</p><p>If you&#39;re noticing a theme with this list, it&#39;s that highly defensive sectors and industries are a smart place to put your money to work when corrections arise. Cybersecurity is a sustained double-digit growth trend which has become a basic necessity for businesses of all sizes that have an online or cloud-based presence. Hackers and robots simply don&#39;t care if Wall Street has a rough day.</p><p>There are two key reasons Palo Alto makes for such an impressive growth story. To begin with, it&#39;s undergoing a business transformation that&#39;s emphasizing subscription services. Even though the company continues to sell physical firewall products, subscription services provide better long-term margins and less revenue lumpiness. Over time, a larger percentage of total sales will derive from these higher-margin channels.</p><p>Palo Alto&#39;s other major growth driver is its many bolt-on acquisitions. Management hasn&#39;t been afraid to deploy capital in order to expand its product portfolio or broaden its pool of potential customers. These acquisitions have been pivotal in helping Palo Alto reach new small and medium-sized businesses.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7343c3ce7330b86321a8ec9384d4baea\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Bank of America</h2><p>A fourth and final company that would be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the smartest stocks to buy if the market plunges is money-center giant <b>Bank of America</b> (NYSE:BAC).</p><p>Bank stocks like BofA are highly cyclical. Even though they can occasionally get caught up in the short-term emotions that weigh down stocks, they benefit immensely from the natural expansion of the U.S. and global economy over time. This allows patient investors in large bank stocks to build their wealth steadily over time. Not surprisingly, Bank of America is Warren Buffett&#39;s second-largest holding.</p><p>What makes Bank of America such a perfect buy at the moment (and if the market continues to fall) is the upcoming shift in the Federal Reserve&#39;s monetary policy. With U.S. inflation hitting a 40-year high in January, the nation&#39;s central bank has no choice but to aggressively begin raising interest rates. No bank stock is more interest-sensitive than BofA. In its year-end report, the company noted that a 100-basis-point parallel shift in the interest rate yield curve would add an estimated $6.5 billion in net interest income.  In other words, the more inflation becomes an issue, the likelier BofA is to see a big boost to its bottom line.</p><p>Also, as I&#39;ve previously pointed out, Bank of America&#39;s digital push is really paying dividends. Over the past three years, it&#39;s added 5 million new digital active customers and seen the aggregate number of loan sales completed online or via app jump from 31% to 49%. It&#39;s far more cost-effective when customers transact digitally than in person or by phone. As consumers make this digital shift, BofA has consolidated some of its branches and lowered its expenses.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Smartest Stocks to Buy if the Stock Market Plunges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Smartest Stocks to Buy if the Stock Market Plunges\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-19 07:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/18/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-plunges/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Since the beginning of the year, Wall Street and investors have been given a reminder that stock market crashes and corrections are perfectly normal occurrences. The double-digit percentage decline ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/18/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-plunges/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4560":"网络安全概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4128":"药品零售","BAC":"美国银行","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/18/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-plunges/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212268576","content_text":"Since the beginning of the year, Wall Street and investors have been given a reminder that stock market crashes and corrections are perfectly normal occurrences. The double-digit percentage decline the S&P 500 experienced in January marks the 39th correction of at least 10% for the widely followed index since the beginning of 1950.But where there are crashes and corrections, there's also opportunity. That's because every sizable decline in the S&P 500 has eventually been put in the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. If the broader market were to continue to plunge, the following four companies would be some of the smartest stocks to buy.Image source: Getty Images.Berkshire HathawayIn a world where growth stocks have dominated, perhaps no company has more consistently outperformed the broader market for decades than Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B).Berkshire might not be a household name, but its CEO, billionaire Warren Buffett, certainly is. Since taking the reins in 1965, Buffett has led his company's Class A shares (BRK.A) to an average annual gain of better than 20%. In aggregate, we're talking about a total gain of around 3,800,000% in 57 years.One of the key reasons the Oracle of Omaha is such a successful investor is due to his company's focus on cyclical businesses. Cyclical companies thrive when the economy is running on all cylinders and struggle when recessions arise. Buffett fully understands that recessions typically last for a few months to a couple of quarters. Comparatively, periods of expansion usually last for years, if not a decade. Warren Buffett is allowing time to be his ally and playing a simple numbers game that works in favor of ultra-long-term investors.The other not-so-subtle secret to Berkshire Hathaway's outperformance is dividend income. This year, Buffett's company is on pace to collect over $5 billion in payouts, which works out to a yield relative to cost of around 5%. Dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested. This means Buffett and his team have packed Berkshire's portfolio with successful businesses that can navigate whatever the U.S. economy and stock market throw their way.Image source: Getty Images.Walgreens Boots AllianceHealthcare stocks are usually a wise place to put your money to work if the market plunges. That's why pharmacy chain and value stock Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA) would be such a smart buy.No matter how well or poorly the U.S. economy performs, or how high the year-over-year inflation figure rises, people don't get to choose when they get sick or what ailment(s) they develop. This means demand for prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services tends to remain steady in any economic environment.What specifically makes Walgreens so intriguing is the company's multipoint growth strategy targeting higher margins and a faster organic growth rate. To lift margins, the company has reduced its annual operating expenses by more than $2 billion a full fiscal year ahead of schedule.Meanwhile, to boost the company's organic growth rate, Walgreens is spending aggressively on two key initiatives. First, it's actively promoting direct-to-consumer sales. Even though the company's brick-and-mortar locations will account for the lion's share of revenue, online sales are an easy way to boost organic growth as consumers shift their buying habits.Second, Walgreens has partnered with, and invested in, VillageMD to open upwards of 600 co-located, full-service clinics by 2025 in over 30 U.S. markets. These physician-staffed clinics can be used to funnel repeat clients to the company's higher-margin pharmacy.Image source: Getty Images.Palo Alto NetworksAnother exceptionally smart stock to buy if the market plunges is cybersecurity powerhouse and growth stock Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW).If you're noticing a theme with this list, it's that highly defensive sectors and industries are a smart place to put your money to work when corrections arise. Cybersecurity is a sustained double-digit growth trend which has become a basic necessity for businesses of all sizes that have an online or cloud-based presence. Hackers and robots simply don't care if Wall Street has a rough day.There are two key reasons Palo Alto makes for such an impressive growth story. To begin with, it's undergoing a business transformation that's emphasizing subscription services. Even though the company continues to sell physical firewall products, subscription services provide better long-term margins and less revenue lumpiness. Over time, a larger percentage of total sales will derive from these higher-margin channels.Palo Alto's other major growth driver is its many bolt-on acquisitions. Management hasn't been afraid to deploy capital in order to expand its product portfolio or broaden its pool of potential customers. These acquisitions have been pivotal in helping Palo Alto reach new small and medium-sized businesses.Image source: Getty Images.Bank of AmericaA fourth and final company that would be one of the smartest stocks to buy if the market plunges is money-center giant Bank of America (NYSE:BAC).Bank stocks like BofA are highly cyclical. Even though they can occasionally get caught up in the short-term emotions that weigh down stocks, they benefit immensely from the natural expansion of the U.S. and global economy over time. This allows patient investors in large bank stocks to build their wealth steadily over time. Not surprisingly, Bank of America is Warren Buffett's second-largest holding.What makes Bank of America such a perfect buy at the moment (and if the market continues to fall) is the upcoming shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. With U.S. inflation hitting a 40-year high in January, the nation's central bank has no choice but to aggressively begin raising interest rates. No bank stock is more interest-sensitive than BofA. In its year-end report, the company noted that a 100-basis-point parallel shift in the interest rate yield curve would add an estimated $6.5 billion in net interest income.  In other words, the more inflation becomes an issue, the likelier BofA is to see a big boost to its bottom line.Also, as I've previously pointed out, Bank of America's digital push is really paying dividends. Over the past three years, it's added 5 million new digital active customers and seen the aggregate number of loan sales completed online or via app jump from 31% to 49%. It's far more cost-effective when customers transact digitally than in person or by phone. As consumers make this digital shift, BofA has consolidated some of its branches and lowered its expenses.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9036061255,"gmtCreate":1646952037216,"gmtModify":1676534179841,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036061255","repostId":"2218123147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218123147","pubTimestamp":1646921140,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2218123147?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-10 22:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple's Stock Faces A Steep Sell-Off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218123147","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"This story was originally written on March 7 for subscribers of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketpla","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><i>This story was originally written on March 7 for subscribers of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. This story has been updated as of March 9.</i></p><p>Apple (AAPL) shares have come under pressure in recent weeks, along with the broader equity markets, as the war in Ukraine escalates, sending oil and the dollar surging. That, coupled with the potential for several Fed rate hikes as inflation spirals out of control, is resulting in valuation and multiple compression. Apple is not immune to these macro forces.</p><p>Even the latest Apple event on March 8, with the unveiling of a new iPhone SE, iPad Air, and new Mac Studio, will be enough to change the course of Apple over the near term. The issue with Apple is not the fundamentals of the business. The problem with Apple is that the stock&#39;s valuation is high on a historical basis. Right now, investors are re-pricing risk, leading to board multiple compression across the entire market.</p><h2>AAPL&#39;s Valuation Is Still High</h2><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f3bc82f1f7ce23f94e0a25183e9e7b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Apple&#39;s stock is certainly not cheap, trading at 24.7 it 1-yr Fwd EPS estimates, which doesn&#39;t sound high compared to other stocks in the S&amp;P 500. But it&#39;s very high for Apple on a historical basis. Since 2014, Apple has had an average PE ratio of 16.7. Now it&#39;s reasonable to assume some added multiple expansion over the years due to the company&#39;s addition of its services business. However, despite its decline, the current PE ratio is still more than <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> standard deviation above the historical average.</p><p>It probably signals a lot more multiple compression to go for Apple&#39;s stock, should the general trend in the broader market continue to hold. That multiple could fall dramatically, potentially to 20 or lower.</p><p>If Apple is forecast to earn around $6.69 per share in 2023 and sees its PE ratio fall to about 20 times earnings, the stock would only be valued at approximately $134. That would be a considerable drop from its current price of roughly $162 on March 9, a decline of about 17.4%.</p><p>The valuation may especially matter given that company is only expected to see earnings grow 9.6% in the fiscal year 2022 and 6.8% in the fiscal year 2023, which doesn&#39;t justify the historically high valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf1a8ddea8fbe028617f8f659fd46cae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2>Betting Shares Drops</h2><p>This type of thinking could have led someone to make a massive bet that Apple&#39;s stock will see lower prices soon. On March 7, the April 14 $150 puts saw their open interest rise by an eye-popping 45,000 contracts. The data shows the contracts were bought on the ASK at various prices during the trading session on March 4 for around $3. That would imply that the stock would need to fall below $147 for the trader to profit if holding the contracts until the expiration date.</p><h2>Trends Breaking Down</h2><p>The technical chart does not look strong and shows that prices have been declining and approaching a critical long-term uptrend that started in May. The technical pattern itself is a rising broadening wedge, which tends to be a bearish pattern. A break of that uptrend would result in the stock falling to around $149, the next level of crucial support for the equity. Additionally, the relative strength index is trending lower, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4bb2f209fcb045281afe14f2543d6c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tradingview</p><p>The decline in Apple shares may have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the business, which seem pretty strong right now, especially in the face of the strong product line-up. The company has recently started rolling out its chip designs into its Mac and iPad line-ups. Plus, the recent event showed the addition of a new Mac.</p><p>None of this is to say that Apple doesn&#39;t have a strong path forward in the future. It does. At this point, the macro backdrop has shifted, resulting in changes in the stock&#39;s valuation.</p><p>It&#39;s more likely that Apple will fall victim to changing market dynamics that favor further multiple compression, not due to the strength and positioning of the company.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple's Stock Faces A Steep Sell-Off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's Stock Faces A Steep Sell-Off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-10 22:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494129-apples-stock-faces-a-steep-sell-off><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This story was originally written on March 7 for subscribers of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. This story has been updated as of March 9.Apple (AAPL) shares have come under pressure ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494129-apples-stock-faces-a-steep-sell-off\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4512":"苹果概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494129-apples-stock-faces-a-steep-sell-off","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2218123147","content_text":"This story was originally written on March 7 for subscribers of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. This story has been updated as of March 9.Apple (AAPL) shares have come under pressure in recent weeks, along with the broader equity markets, as the war in Ukraine escalates, sending oil and the dollar surging. That, coupled with the potential for several Fed rate hikes as inflation spirals out of control, is resulting in valuation and multiple compression. Apple is not immune to these macro forces.Even the latest Apple event on March 8, with the unveiling of a new iPhone SE, iPad Air, and new Mac Studio, will be enough to change the course of Apple over the near term. The issue with Apple is not the fundamentals of the business. The problem with Apple is that the stock's valuation is high on a historical basis. Right now, investors are re-pricing risk, leading to board multiple compression across the entire market.AAPL's Valuation Is Still HighBloombergApple's stock is certainly not cheap, trading at 24.7 it 1-yr Fwd EPS estimates, which doesn't sound high compared to other stocks in the S&P 500. But it's very high for Apple on a historical basis. Since 2014, Apple has had an average PE ratio of 16.7. Now it's reasonable to assume some added multiple expansion over the years due to the company's addition of its services business. However, despite its decline, the current PE ratio is still more than one standard deviation above the historical average.It probably signals a lot more multiple compression to go for Apple's stock, should the general trend in the broader market continue to hold. That multiple could fall dramatically, potentially to 20 or lower.If Apple is forecast to earn around $6.69 per share in 2023 and sees its PE ratio fall to about 20 times earnings, the stock would only be valued at approximately $134. That would be a considerable drop from its current price of roughly $162 on March 9, a decline of about 17.4%.The valuation may especially matter given that company is only expected to see earnings grow 9.6% in the fiscal year 2022 and 6.8% in the fiscal year 2023, which doesn't justify the historically high valuation.BloombergBetting Shares DropsThis type of thinking could have led someone to make a massive bet that Apple's stock will see lower prices soon. On March 7, the April 14 $150 puts saw their open interest rise by an eye-popping 45,000 contracts. The data shows the contracts were bought on the ASK at various prices during the trading session on March 4 for around $3. That would imply that the stock would need to fall below $147 for the trader to profit if holding the contracts until the expiration date.Trends Breaking DownThe technical chart does not look strong and shows that prices have been declining and approaching a critical long-term uptrend that started in May. The technical pattern itself is a rising broadening wedge, which tends to be a bearish pattern. A break of that uptrend would result in the stock falling to around $149, the next level of crucial support for the equity. Additionally, the relative strength index is trending lower, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum.TradingviewThe decline in Apple shares may have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the business, which seem pretty strong right now, especially in the face of the strong product line-up. The company has recently started rolling out its chip designs into its Mac and iPad line-ups. Plus, the recent event showed the addition of a new Mac.None of this is to say that Apple doesn't have a strong path forward in the future. It does. At this point, the macro backdrop has shifted, resulting in changes in the stock's valuation.It's more likely that Apple will fall victim to changing market dynamics that favor further multiple compression, not due to the strength and positioning of the company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089605703,"gmtCreate":1649985507219,"gmtModify":1676534621903,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089605703","repostId":"1133070824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133070824","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649399100,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133070824?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-08 14:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reminder: Holiday Trading Hours during Good Friday and Easter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133070824","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock markets will be closed Friday, April 15in observance of Good Friday.The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will resume normal trading hours on Monday.The Securities Industry and Financi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stock markets will be closed Friday, April 15 in observance of Good Friday.</p><p>The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will resume normal trading hours on Monday.</p><p>The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommended the U.S. bond market close Friday. It also advised that the bond market shutter early on Thursday, April14 at 2 p.m. Eastern.</p><p>U.S. commodities markets including gold and oil futures also won&#39;t be open for trading Friday.</p><p>Singapore stock markets will also close on Good Friday.</p><p>Stock markets in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia will close on Good Friday and on Monday in observance of Easter.</p><p>A-shares (Northbound) will be closed to April 18 from April 14.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d9bbb655e7216a0c27a0cb94e0d0875\" tg-width=\"1482\" tg-height=\"1328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Good Friday commemorates the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. It isn’t a federal holiday, which means businesses often stay open. Good Friday is the only time U.S. markets close for the day outside of federal holidays.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Holiday Trading Hours during Good Friday and Easter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Holiday Trading Hours during Good Friday and Easter\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-08 14:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stock markets will be closed Friday, April 15 in observance of Good Friday.</p><p>The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will resume normal trading hours on Monday.</p><p>The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommended the U.S. bond market close Friday. It also advised that the bond market shutter early on Thursday, April14 at 2 p.m. Eastern.</p><p>U.S. commodities markets including gold and oil futures also won&#39;t be open for trading Friday.</p><p>Singapore stock markets will also close on Good Friday.</p><p>Stock markets in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia will close on Good Friday and on Monday in observance of Easter.</p><p>A-shares (Northbound) will be closed to April 18 from April 14.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d9bbb655e7216a0c27a0cb94e0d0875\" tg-width=\"1482\" tg-height=\"1328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Good Friday commemorates the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. It isn’t a federal holiday, which means businesses often stay open. Good Friday is the only time U.S. markets close for the day outside of federal holidays.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133070824","content_text":"U.S. stock markets will be closed Friday, April 15 in observance of Good Friday.The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will resume normal trading hours on Monday.The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommended the U.S. bond market close Friday. It also advised that the bond market shutter early on Thursday, April14 at 2 p.m. Eastern.U.S. commodities markets including gold and oil futures also won't be open for trading Friday.Singapore stock markets will also close on Good Friday.Stock markets in Europe, Hong Kong and Australia will close on Good Friday and on Monday in observance of Easter.A-shares (Northbound) will be closed to April 18 from April 14.Good Friday commemorates the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. It isn’t a federal holiday, which means businesses often stay open. Good Friday is the only time U.S. markets close for the day outside of federal holidays.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097939683,"gmtCreate":1645311780520,"gmtModify":1676534016714,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097939683","repostId":"2212268576","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2212268576","pubTimestamp":1645227827,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2212268576?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-19 07:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Smartest Stocks to Buy if the Stock Market Plunges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212268576","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"When crashes and corrections rear their head, so does the opportunity for investors.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Since the beginning of the year, Wall Street and investors have been given a reminder that stock market crashes and corrections are perfectly normal occurrences. The double-digit percentage decline the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> experienced in January marks the 39th correction of at least 10% for the widely followed index since the beginning of 1950.</p><p>But where there are crashes and corrections, there&#39;s also opportunity. That&#39;s because every sizable decline in the S&amp;P 500 has eventually been put in the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. If the broader market were to continue to plunge, the following four companies would be some of the smartest stocks to buy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5364080a57bed47540a161b8615747\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Berkshire Hathaway</h2><p>In a world where growth stocks have dominated, perhaps no company has more consistently outperformed the broader market for decades than <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B).</p><p>Berkshire might not be a household name, but its CEO, billionaire Warren Buffett, certainly is. Since taking the reins in 1965, Buffett has led his company&#39;s Class A shares (BRK.A) to an average annual gain of better than 20%. In aggregate, we&#39;re talking about a total gain of around 3,800,000% in 57 years.</p><p>One of the key reasons the Oracle of Omaha is such a successful investor is due to his company&#39;s focus on cyclical businesses. Cyclical companies thrive when the economy is running on all cylinders and struggle when recessions arise. Buffett fully understands that recessions typically last for a few months to a couple of quarters. Comparatively, periods of expansion usually last for years, if not a decade. Warren Buffett is allowing time to be his ally and playing a simple numbers game that works in favor of ultra-long-term investors.</p><p>The other not-so-subtle secret to Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s outperformance is dividend income. This year, Buffett&#39;s company is on pace to collect over $5 billion in payouts, which works out to a yield relative to cost of around 5%. Dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested. This means Buffett and his team have packed Berkshire&#39;s portfolio with successful businesses that can navigate whatever the U.S. economy and stock market throw their way.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13f98298635a74f4491a99bf47eeded\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a></h2><p>Healthcare stocks are usually a wise place to put your money to work if the market plunges. That&#39;s why pharmacy chain and value stock <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b> (NASDAQ:WBA) would be such a smart buy.</p><p>No matter how well or poorly the U.S. economy performs, or how high the year-over-year inflation figure rises, people don&#39;t get to choose when they get sick or what ailment(s) they develop. This means demand for prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services tends to remain steady in any economic environment.</p><p>What specifically makes Walgreens so intriguing is the company&#39;s multipoint growth strategy targeting higher margins and a faster organic growth rate. To lift margins, the company has reduced its annual operating expenses by more than $2 billion a full fiscal year ahead of schedule.</p><p>Meanwhile, to boost the company&#39;s organic growth rate, Walgreens is spending aggressively on two key initiatives. First, it&#39;s actively promoting direct-to-consumer sales. Even though the company&#39;s brick-and-mortar locations will account for the lion&#39;s share of revenue, online sales are an easy way to boost organic growth as consumers shift their buying habits.</p><p>Second, Walgreens has partnered with, and invested in, VillageMD to open upwards of 600 co-located, full-service clinics by 2025 in over 30 U.S. markets. These physician-staffed clinics can be used to funnel repeat clients to the company&#39;s higher-margin pharmacy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68ecb34d6e4fd6f7dc599908229a09a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a></h2><p>Another exceptionally smart stock to buy if the market plunges is cybersecurity powerhouse and growth stock <b>Palo Alto Networks</b> (NASDAQ:PANW).</p><p>If you&#39;re noticing a theme with this list, it&#39;s that highly defensive sectors and industries are a smart place to put your money to work when corrections arise. Cybersecurity is a sustained double-digit growth trend which has become a basic necessity for businesses of all sizes that have an online or cloud-based presence. Hackers and robots simply don&#39;t care if Wall Street has a rough day.</p><p>There are two key reasons Palo Alto makes for such an impressive growth story. To begin with, it&#39;s undergoing a business transformation that&#39;s emphasizing subscription services. Even though the company continues to sell physical firewall products, subscription services provide better long-term margins and less revenue lumpiness. Over time, a larger percentage of total sales will derive from these higher-margin channels.</p><p>Palo Alto&#39;s other major growth driver is its many bolt-on acquisitions. Management hasn&#39;t been afraid to deploy capital in order to expand its product portfolio or broaden its pool of potential customers. These acquisitions have been pivotal in helping Palo Alto reach new small and medium-sized businesses.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7343c3ce7330b86321a8ec9384d4baea\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Bank of America</h2><p>A fourth and final company that would be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the smartest stocks to buy if the market plunges is money-center giant <b>Bank of America</b> (NYSE:BAC).</p><p>Bank stocks like BofA are highly cyclical. Even though they can occasionally get caught up in the short-term emotions that weigh down stocks, they benefit immensely from the natural expansion of the U.S. and global economy over time. This allows patient investors in large bank stocks to build their wealth steadily over time. Not surprisingly, Bank of America is Warren Buffett&#39;s second-largest holding.</p><p>What makes Bank of America such a perfect buy at the moment (and if the market continues to fall) is the upcoming shift in the Federal Reserve&#39;s monetary policy. With U.S. inflation hitting a 40-year high in January, the nation&#39;s central bank has no choice but to aggressively begin raising interest rates. No bank stock is more interest-sensitive than BofA. In its year-end report, the company noted that a 100-basis-point parallel shift in the interest rate yield curve would add an estimated $6.5 billion in net interest income.  In other words, the more inflation becomes an issue, the likelier BofA is to see a big boost to its bottom line.</p><p>Also, as I&#39;ve previously pointed out, Bank of America&#39;s digital push is really paying dividends. Over the past three years, it&#39;s added 5 million new digital active customers and seen the aggregate number of loan sales completed online or via app jump from 31% to 49%. It&#39;s far more cost-effective when customers transact digitally than in person or by phone. As consumers make this digital shift, BofA has consolidated some of its branches and lowered its expenses.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Smartest Stocks to Buy if the Stock Market Plunges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Smartest Stocks to Buy if the Stock Market Plunges\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-19 07:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/18/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-plunges/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Since the beginning of the year, Wall Street and investors have been given a reminder that stock market crashes and corrections are perfectly normal occurrences. The double-digit percentage decline ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/18/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-plunges/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4560":"网络安全概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4128":"药品零售","BAC":"美国银行","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/18/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-plunges/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212268576","content_text":"Since the beginning of the year, Wall Street and investors have been given a reminder that stock market crashes and corrections are perfectly normal occurrences. The double-digit percentage decline the S&P 500 experienced in January marks the 39th correction of at least 10% for the widely followed index since the beginning of 1950.But where there are crashes and corrections, there's also opportunity. That's because every sizable decline in the S&P 500 has eventually been put in the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. If the broader market were to continue to plunge, the following four companies would be some of the smartest stocks to buy.Image source: Getty Images.Berkshire HathawayIn a world where growth stocks have dominated, perhaps no company has more consistently outperformed the broader market for decades than Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B).Berkshire might not be a household name, but its CEO, billionaire Warren Buffett, certainly is. Since taking the reins in 1965, Buffett has led his company's Class A shares (BRK.A) to an average annual gain of better than 20%. In aggregate, we're talking about a total gain of around 3,800,000% in 57 years.One of the key reasons the Oracle of Omaha is such a successful investor is due to his company's focus on cyclical businesses. Cyclical companies thrive when the economy is running on all cylinders and struggle when recessions arise. Buffett fully understands that recessions typically last for a few months to a couple of quarters. Comparatively, periods of expansion usually last for years, if not a decade. Warren Buffett is allowing time to be his ally and playing a simple numbers game that works in favor of ultra-long-term investors.The other not-so-subtle secret to Berkshire Hathaway's outperformance is dividend income. This year, Buffett's company is on pace to collect over $5 billion in payouts, which works out to a yield relative to cost of around 5%. Dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested. This means Buffett and his team have packed Berkshire's portfolio with successful businesses that can navigate whatever the U.S. economy and stock market throw their way.Image source: Getty Images.Walgreens Boots AllianceHealthcare stocks are usually a wise place to put your money to work if the market plunges. That's why pharmacy chain and value stock Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA) would be such a smart buy.No matter how well or poorly the U.S. economy performs, or how high the year-over-year inflation figure rises, people don't get to choose when they get sick or what ailment(s) they develop. This means demand for prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services tends to remain steady in any economic environment.What specifically makes Walgreens so intriguing is the company's multipoint growth strategy targeting higher margins and a faster organic growth rate. To lift margins, the company has reduced its annual operating expenses by more than $2 billion a full fiscal year ahead of schedule.Meanwhile, to boost the company's organic growth rate, Walgreens is spending aggressively on two key initiatives. First, it's actively promoting direct-to-consumer sales. Even though the company's brick-and-mortar locations will account for the lion's share of revenue, online sales are an easy way to boost organic growth as consumers shift their buying habits.Second, Walgreens has partnered with, and invested in, VillageMD to open upwards of 600 co-located, full-service clinics by 2025 in over 30 U.S. markets. These physician-staffed clinics can be used to funnel repeat clients to the company's higher-margin pharmacy.Image source: Getty Images.Palo Alto NetworksAnother exceptionally smart stock to buy if the market plunges is cybersecurity powerhouse and growth stock Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW).If you're noticing a theme with this list, it's that highly defensive sectors and industries are a smart place to put your money to work when corrections arise. Cybersecurity is a sustained double-digit growth trend which has become a basic necessity for businesses of all sizes that have an online or cloud-based presence. Hackers and robots simply don't care if Wall Street has a rough day.There are two key reasons Palo Alto makes for such an impressive growth story. To begin with, it's undergoing a business transformation that's emphasizing subscription services. Even though the company continues to sell physical firewall products, subscription services provide better long-term margins and less revenue lumpiness. Over time, a larger percentage of total sales will derive from these higher-margin channels.Palo Alto's other major growth driver is its many bolt-on acquisitions. Management hasn't been afraid to deploy capital in order to expand its product portfolio or broaden its pool of potential customers. These acquisitions have been pivotal in helping Palo Alto reach new small and medium-sized businesses.Image source: Getty Images.Bank of AmericaA fourth and final company that would be one of the smartest stocks to buy if the market plunges is money-center giant Bank of America (NYSE:BAC).Bank stocks like BofA are highly cyclical. Even though they can occasionally get caught up in the short-term emotions that weigh down stocks, they benefit immensely from the natural expansion of the U.S. and global economy over time. This allows patient investors in large bank stocks to build their wealth steadily over time. Not surprisingly, Bank of America is Warren Buffett's second-largest holding.What makes Bank of America such a perfect buy at the moment (and if the market continues to fall) is the upcoming shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. With U.S. inflation hitting a 40-year high in January, the nation's central bank has no choice but to aggressively begin raising interest rates. No bank stock is more interest-sensitive than BofA. In its year-end report, the company noted that a 100-basis-point parallel shift in the interest rate yield curve would add an estimated $6.5 billion in net interest income.  In other words, the more inflation becomes an issue, the likelier BofA is to see a big boost to its bottom line.Also, as I've previously pointed out, Bank of America's digital push is really paying dividends. Over the past three years, it's added 5 million new digital active customers and seen the aggregate number of loan sales completed online or via app jump from 31% to 49%. It's far more cost-effective when customers transact digitally than in person or by phone. As consumers make this digital shift, BofA has consolidated some of its branches and lowered its expenses.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080970885,"gmtCreate":1649838509609,"gmtModify":1676534587235,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080970885","repostId":"1179497108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179497108","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649837826,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179497108?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-13 16:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Jumped 1.52% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179497108","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla had quietly continued taking pre-orders for the company’s next-generation Roadster sports car ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla had quietly continued taking pre-orders for the company’s next-generation Roadster sports car over the weekend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ea5b280cc585dd3e8627dd44db83af9\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"669\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The automaker had closed reservations for Founders Series versions in December 2021. However, the page has conveniently left out how much the car would cost. Customers wishing to reserve the vehicle are asked to instantly pay $5,000, requiring the remaining $45,000 deposit within ten days. Initially, the price of a Tesla Roadster was $200,000, and for a Founders Series Signature version, it was $250,000.</p><p>The car will still deliver a 0-60 mph time of around 1.9 seconds, go 0-100 in just over four seconds, and reach speeds upwards of 250 mph. Plus, Tesla wants it to go over 600 miles on a charge. The car also sits four and comes with a glass roof.</p><p>Tesla Roadster production should start a little later in 2023 following the Cybertruck.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Jumped 1.52% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Jumped 1.52% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-13 16:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla had quietly continued taking pre-orders for the company’s next-generation Roadster sports car over the weekend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ea5b280cc585dd3e8627dd44db83af9\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"669\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The automaker had closed reservations for Founders Series versions in December 2021. However, the page has conveniently left out how much the car would cost. Customers wishing to reserve the vehicle are asked to instantly pay $5,000, requiring the remaining $45,000 deposit within ten days. Initially, the price of a Tesla Roadster was $200,000, and for a Founders Series Signature version, it was $250,000.</p><p>The car will still deliver a 0-60 mph time of around 1.9 seconds, go 0-100 in just over four seconds, and reach speeds upwards of 250 mph. Plus, Tesla wants it to go over 600 miles on a charge. The car also sits four and comes with a glass roof.</p><p>Tesla Roadster production should start a little later in 2023 following the Cybertruck.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179497108","content_text":"Tesla had quietly continued taking pre-orders for the company’s next-generation Roadster sports car over the weekend.The automaker had closed reservations for Founders Series versions in December 2021. However, the page has conveniently left out how much the car would cost. Customers wishing to reserve the vehicle are asked to instantly pay $5,000, requiring the remaining $45,000 deposit within ten days. Initially, the price of a Tesla Roadster was $200,000, and for a Founders Series Signature version, it was $250,000.The car will still deliver a 0-60 mph time of around 1.9 seconds, go 0-100 in just over four seconds, and reach speeds upwards of 250 mph. Plus, Tesla wants it to go over 600 miles on a charge. The car also sits four and comes with a glass roof.Tesla Roadster production should start a little later in 2023 following the Cybertruck.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018096083,"gmtCreate":1648946514584,"gmtModify":1676534425027,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018096083","repostId":"2224327072","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2224327072","pubTimestamp":1648938723,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2224327072?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-03 06:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shipped record 310,000 cars in Q1, slightly trailing analyst forecasts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2224327072","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images   Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported Saturday that it deliv","content":"<html><body><p><figure> <picture> <img height=\"1024px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1140204814/image_1140204814.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture> <figcaption><p>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</p></figcaption> </figure></p> <div> <p>Tesla (<span>NASDAQ:TSLA</span>) reported Saturday that it delivered some 310,000 vehicles during Q1 – a record<span> number of shipments, but a level that slightly trailed analyst forecasts.</span></p> <p>The electric-vehicle maker said it delivered 310,048 cars during the latest quarter, up 67.8% from 184,800 vehicles shipped in the same period last year. Shipments also rose about 0.5% from Q4, when the company delivered its previous record of 308,600 vehicles.</p> <p>Still, the latest period's shipments trailed analysts' reported consensus estimate of 317,000 vehicles.</p> <p>Analysts had predicted the computer-chip shortage that's currently hitting automakers the world over would hurt TSLA's Q1 output. However, the company said in a statement Saturday that it managed to ship the number of cars it did \"despite ongoing supply-chain challenges and factory shutdowns.\"</p> <p>Tesla (TSLA) added that shipments during the latest period consisted of about 295,300 Model 3 and Y vehicles, as well as 14,700 Model S and X cars.</p> <p>Additionally, TSLA reported that actually built 305,407 vehicles during the latest quarter. That's down slightly from the 305,840 cars that Tesla (TSLA) produced in Q4, but up 69.4% from the 180,338 units the firm churned out in the same period last year.</p> <p>TSLA recently opened a new plant in Germany, and also cut the ribbon on a production facility in Texas last year.</p> <p>Tesla also disclosed Saturday that it will release Q1 earnings on April 20 after the market closes. The company said executives will also host a live Webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET that day to discuss the company's quarterly results.</p> </div></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shipped record 310,000 cars in Q1, slightly trailing analyst forecasts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shipped record 310,000 cars in Q1, slightly trailing analyst forecasts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-03 06:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3820179-tesla-shipped-record-310000-cars-in-q1-slightly-trailing-analyst-forecasts><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images   Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported Saturday that it delivered some 310,000 vehicles during Q1 – a record number of shipments, but a level that slightly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3820179-tesla-shipped-record-310000-cars-in-q1-slightly-trailing-analyst-forecasts\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3820179-tesla-shipped-record-310000-cars-in-q1-slightly-trailing-analyst-forecasts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2224327072","content_text":"jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images   Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported Saturday that it delivered some 310,000 vehicles during Q1 – a record number of shipments, but a level that slightly trailed analyst forecasts. The electric-vehicle maker said it delivered 310,048 cars during the latest quarter, up 67.8% from 184,800 vehicles shipped in the same period last year. Shipments also rose about 0.5% from Q4, when the company delivered its previous record of 308,600 vehicles. Still, the latest period's shipments trailed analysts' reported consensus estimate of 317,000 vehicles. Analysts had predicted the computer-chip shortage that's currently hitting automakers the world over would hurt TSLA's Q1 output. However, the company said in a statement Saturday that it managed to ship the number of cars it did \"despite ongoing supply-chain challenges and factory shutdowns.\" Tesla (TSLA) added that shipments during the latest period consisted of about 295,300 Model 3 and Y vehicles, as well as 14,700 Model S and X cars. Additionally, TSLA reported that actually built 305,407 vehicles during the latest quarter. That's down slightly from the 305,840 cars that Tesla (TSLA) produced in Q4, but up 69.4% from the 180,338 units the firm churned out in the same period last year. TSLA recently opened a new plant in Germany, and also cut the ribbon on a production facility in Texas last year. Tesla also disclosed Saturday that it will release Q1 earnings on April 20 after the market closes. The company said executives will also host a live Webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET that day to discuss the company's quarterly results.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064707103,"gmtCreate":1652366481002,"gmtModify":1676535086238,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064707103","repostId":"2234991443","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2234991443","pubTimestamp":1652334079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2234991443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-12 13:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Upstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234991443","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Upstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.</li><li>Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting in lower approvals and conversion rates.</li><li>Balance sheet risk overblown given that it represents a small percentage of total loans transacted in 1Q22 and the need for it given the changing interest rate environment.</li><li>The sensitivity of Upstart&#39;s business to interest rates and delinquencies is not unique to Upstart and represents macro factors not within management control, which could be interesting to watch.</li><li>Based on my target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels and implies 30x/19x 2023F/2024F P/E respectively.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da553715610fcc0fa15f21b0966aefd8\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>DKosig/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>With the recent 56% drop in Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), I dive deeper into its recent 1Q22 earnings to find out if such a huge decline in share price is warranted.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e368732ad18af0e3f93e5da57764f6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><b>Investment thesis</b></p><p>I have written an initial article and subsequentarticle elaborating on the investment thesis for Upstart. There&#39;s lots that I am positive on with regards to Upstart, and here are the key investment highlights for the company:</p><ol><li>Upstart&#39;s superior Artificial Intelligence (AI) model brings real benefits to both consumers and its banking partners, and this AI competitive advantage will only improve and widen with time.</li><li>Capital light model as an intermediary between consumers and its banking partners.</li><li>Upstart is expanding its total addressable market (TAM) into the huge auto loan origination market, demonstrating a large market opportunity.</li><li>Upstart&#39;s margins and unit economics have seen improvements and will likely continue in that trend as a result of increased automation and scale.</li></ol><p><b>1Q22 in-line while guidance slightly weak</b></p><p>While 1Q22 results were in-line with expectations, the main disappointment came from the lower guidance as well as the increased use of the balance sheet for its loans (explained in the following section). The guidance was lowered to $1.25 billion for 2022, down from the initial guidance of $1.4 billion for 2022 in the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2022 was also guided downward from 17% in the prior quarter to 15% in the current quarter.</p><p>I think that the lower guidance is expected given the industry that Upstart is operating in. The lending industry is a cyclical industry and this is probably <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the more challenging environments in which it is operating right now. There are multiple headwinds for the lending industry and one of the biggest is the rising interest rates, rising delinquencies, and fears of a recession happening.</p><p>With the increased perceived risk in the economy, this is resulting in higher pricing on Upstart&#39;s platform as the investors in these loans require higher returns to compensate for this risk. As such, Upstart has seen a 300 basis point increase in the average loan pricing since October, as highlighted by management. This high pricing then results in lower approval rates and lower transaction volumes.</p><p>As such, the lowering of guidance is within my expectations as it represents an 11% decrease in revenue guidance. However, I think that we need to be aware of the downside risks, which includes a recession actually happening or the Fed increasing rates more than expected. These scenarios could result in significantly lower transaction volumes.</p><p><b>Use of balance sheet raises concerns</b></p><p>During the quarter, we saw Upstart&#39;s balance sheet loans rise from $260 million in the previous quarter to $605 million in 1Q22. Traditionally, if you recall from the previous article, the use of the balance sheet has only been exclusively used for Upstart&#39;s R&amp;D. As such, with an $345 million increase in loans on its balance sheets, I can see why this raises the eyebrows of some investors.</p><p>When I look closer into the management commentary during the earnings call, I gain a greater clarity into the context and the reason for use of balance sheet during the quarter.</p><p>First, I will touch on the context of this balance sheet risk. As highlighted by CFO Sanjay, the amount of platform loans that ended up in its balance sheet was in the single digit percentage compared to its total platform loans. Furthermore, of that single digit percentage of loans that end up in its balance sheet, three-quarters of it, or $454 million, is still used for R&amp;D, mainly in auto loans and other new products. As such, the remaining one-quarter, which makes up $150 million of loans, was put on the balance sheet. Putting this into context, Upstart had $4,535 million in transaction loan dollars in 1Q22, which means that this $150 million of loans that ended up in the balance sheet only account for 3% of total 1Q22 loans.</p><p>Second, I will touch on the reason for use of the balance sheet for these loans. CFO Sanjay gave a very good explanation of this, in my view. As highlighted before, historically, the company only used its balance sheet exclusively for R&amp;D. However, that was a different environment from what Upstart is operating in today. With interest rates changing quite quickly in the new interest rate environment, it needs to use the balance sheet loans as a market clearing mechanism, which acts as a temporary stop-gap measure in order for the platform to adjust to faster moving market rates. The need for this temporary measure is because the platform currently has a limited ability to react to fast moving rates as the process is rather manual at the moment. As a result, when rates move and investors are deciding what is the new hurdle return, the delay in funding as a result needs to be plugged in and that is where the $150 million of balance sheet loans not used for R&amp;D is used.</p><p>Although the use of the balance sheet does bring additional risks to Upstart, I think of this as a temporary measure that the company can leverage on to improve its response time to fast changing market conditions, and this will likely not be either sizable or long term, as reiterated by Sanjay as well. As Upstart uses its balance sheet in a controlled manner in the near term as a market clearing mechanism, this paves the way for Upstart to develop a more nimble and automated mechanism to improve its response time to market conditions.</p><p>Ultimately, as management highlighted, they view Upstart as a platform and not as one that holds excessive balance sheet risks. This platform should work as a marketplace where the discovery of price takes place as well as the funding of loans by institutional investors. This has worked fluidly in the past, and currently, is less fluid. As such, to ensure sufficient fluidity in the system, Upstart decided to use its balance sheet to act as a bridge. As highlighted before, the company is investing in its market clearing mechanism to ensure no or fewer balance sheet participation in the future.</p><p><b>Sensitivity to interest rates and delinquencies not unique to Upstart</b></p><p>Management highlighted several times both this quarter&#39;s and the previous quarter&#39;s earnings call that a rise in delinquencies is expected given the waning of government stimulus resulting in delinquencies normalising. As can be seen by the independent KBRA data, annualised net losses and delinquencies have risen across the board for tier 2 names like Upstart, Upgrade, Prosper and Lending Club Prime. This represents a normalisation of net losses and delinquencies to the pre-pandemic levels.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce5d82bf69aba109c21cef25428dcc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>KBRA Marketplace Consumer Loan Indices (KBRA; Citi)</span></p><p>This means that Upstart&#39;s loans have underperformed due to the changing credit conditions, and along with rising delinquencies, this results in a lower conversion rate for Upstart in 1Q22 of 21.4% compared to 24.4% in the prior quarter.</p><p>As such, for conversion rates to return to prior quarter levels, it is a function of interest rates and delinquencies. The higher the interest rates, the less likely conversion rates can improve as this means higher pricing for loans on its platform and lower acceptance rates. The higher the delinquencies, the higher the pricing for loans as well, leading to a similar outcome.</p><p>On a positive note, management highlighted that they have seen delinquency stabilise for the past 2 months. Furthermore, this trend of normalising of loss rates and delinquencies is clearly not unique to Upstart as it affects other tier 2 players as well. This is encouraging and worth watching going into the next quarter how well Upstart does compared to the other tier 2s. However, I am surprised by how sensitive Upstart&#39;s business is to higher interest rates and this may mean that Upstart may be more cyclical than what many investors initially thought.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>I am adjusting my model that was highlighted in my initial article for the changes in guidance as well as changing macro environment this year. I lower my nearer term financial forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to be more in-line with the 11% decrease in revenue guidance for 2022 announced in 1Q22 results. Further, I apply a higher discount rate to incorporate the heightened risks in the current macro environment, brings WACC up to 13%. Lastly, I adjusted the terminal growth rate down from 2% to 1.5%.</p><p>With that, my target price for Upstart is $80.17, implying an upside of 140% from current levels. The target price of $80.17 implies a 30x 2023F P/E and a 19x 2024F P/E, while earnings growth is expected to average 42% during that period according to Bloomberg consensus.</p><p>I think that based on my target price, the higher valuation multiple is warranted given that Upstart is a pure play company with a lending platform based on a proven AI model with a large expansion opportunity into different credit products.</p><p><b>RisksConcentration on unsecured personal loans</b></p><p>Although I mentioned earlier that Upstart has started venturing into auto loans and are looking into options into new products down the road, the majority of its revenues today come from its bread and butter unsecured personal loans segment. This, in my view, is a concentration risk from a business point of view. The roll out and execution of its expansion into new products and new loan categories could be positive to the share price but any slowing of deployment into these new categories and segments could be negative to share price.</p><p><b>Fluctuations in economic conditions</b></p><p>As with all credit issuers and players in the industry, Upstart&#39;s business model and its growth of loan volumes are both very vulnerable to drastic changes in the economy or to financial shocks. This could prove to be particularly painful for Upstart due to its inexperience in handling a downturn. Also, I believe that the risk might be further amplified for Upstart since their AI models have yet to be very extensively tested during a serious financial downturn. Although Upstart does not take balance sheet risks, this could very severely impact the platform and AI model&#39;s credibility.</p><p><b>Competition</b></p><p>Although Upstart has an advantage in its extensive use of AI and machine learning, it could be detrimental to Upstart if its competitors are able to build an AI model more superior to that of Upstart. Thus, it is crucial for Upstart to continue to invest in R&amp;D and continuously improve its AI models and machine learning capabilities to ensure a stronger competitive advantage and to have strong barriers of entry for competitors to establish a similar product.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>All in all, I think that Upstart&#39;s valuation is currently very attractive given the recent share price fall, which has skewed its risk/reward perspective positively. I think that while the lowered guidance may be disappointing, we have to remember that Upstart is in the lending business, which is inherently cyclical. This lowered guidance is understandable given the rising rates environment and normalising of delinquencies as the pandemic subsides.</p><p>However, the sensitivity of rising rates and delinquencies to the conversion rates and hence transaction volume, is something that I took away from the recent results. Lastly, on the increase of balance sheet loans, I think when we understand the context that it is small and temporary, and the reason behind it, the controlled use of balance sheet loans to act as the bridge to improve fluidity in the system is an essential one for the business in a challenging time. With a target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-12 13:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2234991443","content_text":"SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting in lower approvals and conversion rates.Balance sheet risk overblown given that it represents a small percentage of total loans transacted in 1Q22 and the need for it given the changing interest rate environment.The sensitivity of Upstart's business to interest rates and delinquencies is not unique to Upstart and represents macro factors not within management control, which could be interesting to watch.Based on my target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels and implies 30x/19x 2023F/2024F P/E respectively.DKosig/iStock via Getty ImagesWith the recent 56% drop in Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), I dive deeper into its recent 1Q22 earnings to find out if such a huge decline in share price is warranted.Data by YChartsInvestment thesisI have written an initial article and subsequentarticle elaborating on the investment thesis for Upstart. There's lots that I am positive on with regards to Upstart, and here are the key investment highlights for the company:Upstart's superior Artificial Intelligence (AI) model brings real benefits to both consumers and its banking partners, and this AI competitive advantage will only improve and widen with time.Capital light model as an intermediary between consumers and its banking partners.Upstart is expanding its total addressable market (TAM) into the huge auto loan origination market, demonstrating a large market opportunity.Upstart's margins and unit economics have seen improvements and will likely continue in that trend as a result of increased automation and scale.1Q22 in-line while guidance slightly weakWhile 1Q22 results were in-line with expectations, the main disappointment came from the lower guidance as well as the increased use of the balance sheet for its loans (explained in the following section). The guidance was lowered to $1.25 billion for 2022, down from the initial guidance of $1.4 billion for 2022 in the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2022 was also guided downward from 17% in the prior quarter to 15% in the current quarter.I think that the lower guidance is expected given the industry that Upstart is operating in. The lending industry is a cyclical industry and this is probably one of the more challenging environments in which it is operating right now. There are multiple headwinds for the lending industry and one of the biggest is the rising interest rates, rising delinquencies, and fears of a recession happening.With the increased perceived risk in the economy, this is resulting in higher pricing on Upstart's platform as the investors in these loans require higher returns to compensate for this risk. As such, Upstart has seen a 300 basis point increase in the average loan pricing since October, as highlighted by management. This high pricing then results in lower approval rates and lower transaction volumes.As such, the lowering of guidance is within my expectations as it represents an 11% decrease in revenue guidance. However, I think that we need to be aware of the downside risks, which includes a recession actually happening or the Fed increasing rates more than expected. These scenarios could result in significantly lower transaction volumes.Use of balance sheet raises concernsDuring the quarter, we saw Upstart's balance sheet loans rise from $260 million in the previous quarter to $605 million in 1Q22. Traditionally, if you recall from the previous article, the use of the balance sheet has only been exclusively used for Upstart's R&D. As such, with an $345 million increase in loans on its balance sheets, I can see why this raises the eyebrows of some investors.When I look closer into the management commentary during the earnings call, I gain a greater clarity into the context and the reason for use of balance sheet during the quarter.First, I will touch on the context of this balance sheet risk. As highlighted by CFO Sanjay, the amount of platform loans that ended up in its balance sheet was in the single digit percentage compared to its total platform loans. Furthermore, of that single digit percentage of loans that end up in its balance sheet, three-quarters of it, or $454 million, is still used for R&D, mainly in auto loans and other new products. As such, the remaining one-quarter, which makes up $150 million of loans, was put on the balance sheet. Putting this into context, Upstart had $4,535 million in transaction loan dollars in 1Q22, which means that this $150 million of loans that ended up in the balance sheet only account for 3% of total 1Q22 loans.Second, I will touch on the reason for use of the balance sheet for these loans. CFO Sanjay gave a very good explanation of this, in my view. As highlighted before, historically, the company only used its balance sheet exclusively for R&D. However, that was a different environment from what Upstart is operating in today. With interest rates changing quite quickly in the new interest rate environment, it needs to use the balance sheet loans as a market clearing mechanism, which acts as a temporary stop-gap measure in order for the platform to adjust to faster moving market rates. The need for this temporary measure is because the platform currently has a limited ability to react to fast moving rates as the process is rather manual at the moment. As a result, when rates move and investors are deciding what is the new hurdle return, the delay in funding as a result needs to be plugged in and that is where the $150 million of balance sheet loans not used for R&D is used.Although the use of the balance sheet does bring additional risks to Upstart, I think of this as a temporary measure that the company can leverage on to improve its response time to fast changing market conditions, and this will likely not be either sizable or long term, as reiterated by Sanjay as well. As Upstart uses its balance sheet in a controlled manner in the near term as a market clearing mechanism, this paves the way for Upstart to develop a more nimble and automated mechanism to improve its response time to market conditions.Ultimately, as management highlighted, they view Upstart as a platform and not as one that holds excessive balance sheet risks. This platform should work as a marketplace where the discovery of price takes place as well as the funding of loans by institutional investors. This has worked fluidly in the past, and currently, is less fluid. As such, to ensure sufficient fluidity in the system, Upstart decided to use its balance sheet to act as a bridge. As highlighted before, the company is investing in its market clearing mechanism to ensure no or fewer balance sheet participation in the future.Sensitivity to interest rates and delinquencies not unique to UpstartManagement highlighted several times both this quarter's and the previous quarter's earnings call that a rise in delinquencies is expected given the waning of government stimulus resulting in delinquencies normalising. As can be seen by the independent KBRA data, annualised net losses and delinquencies have risen across the board for tier 2 names like Upstart, Upgrade, Prosper and Lending Club Prime. This represents a normalisation of net losses and delinquencies to the pre-pandemic levels.KBRA Marketplace Consumer Loan Indices (KBRA; Citi)This means that Upstart's loans have underperformed due to the changing credit conditions, and along with rising delinquencies, this results in a lower conversion rate for Upstart in 1Q22 of 21.4% compared to 24.4% in the prior quarter.As such, for conversion rates to return to prior quarter levels, it is a function of interest rates and delinquencies. The higher the interest rates, the less likely conversion rates can improve as this means higher pricing for loans on its platform and lower acceptance rates. The higher the delinquencies, the higher the pricing for loans as well, leading to a similar outcome.On a positive note, management highlighted that they have seen delinquency stabilise for the past 2 months. Furthermore, this trend of normalising of loss rates and delinquencies is clearly not unique to Upstart as it affects other tier 2 players as well. This is encouraging and worth watching going into the next quarter how well Upstart does compared to the other tier 2s. However, I am surprised by how sensitive Upstart's business is to higher interest rates and this may mean that Upstart may be more cyclical than what many investors initially thought.ValuationI am adjusting my model that was highlighted in my initial article for the changes in guidance as well as changing macro environment this year. I lower my nearer term financial forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to be more in-line with the 11% decrease in revenue guidance for 2022 announced in 1Q22 results. Further, I apply a higher discount rate to incorporate the heightened risks in the current macro environment, brings WACC up to 13%. Lastly, I adjusted the terminal growth rate down from 2% to 1.5%.With that, my target price for Upstart is $80.17, implying an upside of 140% from current levels. The target price of $80.17 implies a 30x 2023F P/E and a 19x 2024F P/E, while earnings growth is expected to average 42% during that period according to Bloomberg consensus.I think that based on my target price, the higher valuation multiple is warranted given that Upstart is a pure play company with a lending platform based on a proven AI model with a large expansion opportunity into different credit products.RisksConcentration on unsecured personal loansAlthough I mentioned earlier that Upstart has started venturing into auto loans and are looking into options into new products down the road, the majority of its revenues today come from its bread and butter unsecured personal loans segment. This, in my view, is a concentration risk from a business point of view. The roll out and execution of its expansion into new products and new loan categories could be positive to the share price but any slowing of deployment into these new categories and segments could be negative to share price.Fluctuations in economic conditionsAs with all credit issuers and players in the industry, Upstart's business model and its growth of loan volumes are both very vulnerable to drastic changes in the economy or to financial shocks. This could prove to be particularly painful for Upstart due to its inexperience in handling a downturn. Also, I believe that the risk might be further amplified for Upstart since their AI models have yet to be very extensively tested during a serious financial downturn. Although Upstart does not take balance sheet risks, this could very severely impact the platform and AI model's credibility.CompetitionAlthough Upstart has an advantage in its extensive use of AI and machine learning, it could be detrimental to Upstart if its competitors are able to build an AI model more superior to that of Upstart. Thus, it is crucial for Upstart to continue to invest in R&D and continuously improve its AI models and machine learning capabilities to ensure a stronger competitive advantage and to have strong barriers of entry for competitors to establish a similar product.ConclusionAll in all, I think that Upstart's valuation is currently very attractive given the recent share price fall, which has skewed its risk/reward perspective positively. I think that while the lowered guidance may be disappointing, we have to remember that Upstart is in the lending business, which is inherently cyclical. This lowered guidance is understandable given the rising rates environment and normalising of delinquencies as the pandemic subsides.However, the sensitivity of rising rates and delinquencies to the conversion rates and hence transaction volume, is something that I took away from the recent results. Lastly, on the increase of balance sheet loans, I think when we understand the context that it is small and temporary, and the reason behind it, the controlled use of balance sheet loans to act as the bridge to improve fluidity in the system is an essential one for the business in a challenging time. With a target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064704473,"gmtCreate":1652366460192,"gmtModify":1676535086223,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope it recovers","listText":"Hope it recovers","text":"Hope it recovers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064704473","repostId":"2234991443","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2234991443","pubTimestamp":1652334079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2234991443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-12 13:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Upstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234991443","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Upstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.</li><li>Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting in lower approvals and conversion rates.</li><li>Balance sheet risk overblown given that it represents a small percentage of total loans transacted in 1Q22 and the need for it given the changing interest rate environment.</li><li>The sensitivity of Upstart&#39;s business to interest rates and delinquencies is not unique to Upstart and represents macro factors not within management control, which could be interesting to watch.</li><li>Based on my target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels and implies 30x/19x 2023F/2024F P/E respectively.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da553715610fcc0fa15f21b0966aefd8\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>DKosig/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>With the recent 56% drop in Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), I dive deeper into its recent 1Q22 earnings to find out if such a huge decline in share price is warranted.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e368732ad18af0e3f93e5da57764f6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><b>Investment thesis</b></p><p>I have written an initial article and subsequentarticle elaborating on the investment thesis for Upstart. There&#39;s lots that I am positive on with regards to Upstart, and here are the key investment highlights for the company:</p><ol><li>Upstart&#39;s superior Artificial Intelligence (AI) model brings real benefits to both consumers and its banking partners, and this AI competitive advantage will only improve and widen with time.</li><li>Capital light model as an intermediary between consumers and its banking partners.</li><li>Upstart is expanding its total addressable market (TAM) into the huge auto loan origination market, demonstrating a large market opportunity.</li><li>Upstart&#39;s margins and unit economics have seen improvements and will likely continue in that trend as a result of increased automation and scale.</li></ol><p><b>1Q22 in-line while guidance slightly weak</b></p><p>While 1Q22 results were in-line with expectations, the main disappointment came from the lower guidance as well as the increased use of the balance sheet for its loans (explained in the following section). The guidance was lowered to $1.25 billion for 2022, down from the initial guidance of $1.4 billion for 2022 in the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2022 was also guided downward from 17% in the prior quarter to 15% in the current quarter.</p><p>I think that the lower guidance is expected given the industry that Upstart is operating in. The lending industry is a cyclical industry and this is probably <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the more challenging environments in which it is operating right now. There are multiple headwinds for the lending industry and one of the biggest is the rising interest rates, rising delinquencies, and fears of a recession happening.</p><p>With the increased perceived risk in the economy, this is resulting in higher pricing on Upstart&#39;s platform as the investors in these loans require higher returns to compensate for this risk. As such, Upstart has seen a 300 basis point increase in the average loan pricing since October, as highlighted by management. This high pricing then results in lower approval rates and lower transaction volumes.</p><p>As such, the lowering of guidance is within my expectations as it represents an 11% decrease in revenue guidance. However, I think that we need to be aware of the downside risks, which includes a recession actually happening or the Fed increasing rates more than expected. These scenarios could result in significantly lower transaction volumes.</p><p><b>Use of balance sheet raises concerns</b></p><p>During the quarter, we saw Upstart&#39;s balance sheet loans rise from $260 million in the previous quarter to $605 million in 1Q22. Traditionally, if you recall from the previous article, the use of the balance sheet has only been exclusively used for Upstart&#39;s R&amp;D. As such, with an $345 million increase in loans on its balance sheets, I can see why this raises the eyebrows of some investors.</p><p>When I look closer into the management commentary during the earnings call, I gain a greater clarity into the context and the reason for use of balance sheet during the quarter.</p><p>First, I will touch on the context of this balance sheet risk. As highlighted by CFO Sanjay, the amount of platform loans that ended up in its balance sheet was in the single digit percentage compared to its total platform loans. Furthermore, of that single digit percentage of loans that end up in its balance sheet, three-quarters of it, or $454 million, is still used for R&amp;D, mainly in auto loans and other new products. As such, the remaining one-quarter, which makes up $150 million of loans, was put on the balance sheet. Putting this into context, Upstart had $4,535 million in transaction loan dollars in 1Q22, which means that this $150 million of loans that ended up in the balance sheet only account for 3% of total 1Q22 loans.</p><p>Second, I will touch on the reason for use of the balance sheet for these loans. CFO Sanjay gave a very good explanation of this, in my view. As highlighted before, historically, the company only used its balance sheet exclusively for R&amp;D. However, that was a different environment from what Upstart is operating in today. With interest rates changing quite quickly in the new interest rate environment, it needs to use the balance sheet loans as a market clearing mechanism, which acts as a temporary stop-gap measure in order for the platform to adjust to faster moving market rates. The need for this temporary measure is because the platform currently has a limited ability to react to fast moving rates as the process is rather manual at the moment. As a result, when rates move and investors are deciding what is the new hurdle return, the delay in funding as a result needs to be plugged in and that is where the $150 million of balance sheet loans not used for R&amp;D is used.</p><p>Although the use of the balance sheet does bring additional risks to Upstart, I think of this as a temporary measure that the company can leverage on to improve its response time to fast changing market conditions, and this will likely not be either sizable or long term, as reiterated by Sanjay as well. As Upstart uses its balance sheet in a controlled manner in the near term as a market clearing mechanism, this paves the way for Upstart to develop a more nimble and automated mechanism to improve its response time to market conditions.</p><p>Ultimately, as management highlighted, they view Upstart as a platform and not as one that holds excessive balance sheet risks. This platform should work as a marketplace where the discovery of price takes place as well as the funding of loans by institutional investors. This has worked fluidly in the past, and currently, is less fluid. As such, to ensure sufficient fluidity in the system, Upstart decided to use its balance sheet to act as a bridge. As highlighted before, the company is investing in its market clearing mechanism to ensure no or fewer balance sheet participation in the future.</p><p><b>Sensitivity to interest rates and delinquencies not unique to Upstart</b></p><p>Management highlighted several times both this quarter&#39;s and the previous quarter&#39;s earnings call that a rise in delinquencies is expected given the waning of government stimulus resulting in delinquencies normalising. As can be seen by the independent KBRA data, annualised net losses and delinquencies have risen across the board for tier 2 names like Upstart, Upgrade, Prosper and Lending Club Prime. This represents a normalisation of net losses and delinquencies to the pre-pandemic levels.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce5d82bf69aba109c21cef25428dcc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>KBRA Marketplace Consumer Loan Indices (KBRA; Citi)</span></p><p>This means that Upstart&#39;s loans have underperformed due to the changing credit conditions, and along with rising delinquencies, this results in a lower conversion rate for Upstart in 1Q22 of 21.4% compared to 24.4% in the prior quarter.</p><p>As such, for conversion rates to return to prior quarter levels, it is a function of interest rates and delinquencies. The higher the interest rates, the less likely conversion rates can improve as this means higher pricing for loans on its platform and lower acceptance rates. The higher the delinquencies, the higher the pricing for loans as well, leading to a similar outcome.</p><p>On a positive note, management highlighted that they have seen delinquency stabilise for the past 2 months. Furthermore, this trend of normalising of loss rates and delinquencies is clearly not unique to Upstart as it affects other tier 2 players as well. This is encouraging and worth watching going into the next quarter how well Upstart does compared to the other tier 2s. However, I am surprised by how sensitive Upstart&#39;s business is to higher interest rates and this may mean that Upstart may be more cyclical than what many investors initially thought.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>I am adjusting my model that was highlighted in my initial article for the changes in guidance as well as changing macro environment this year. I lower my nearer term financial forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to be more in-line with the 11% decrease in revenue guidance for 2022 announced in 1Q22 results. Further, I apply a higher discount rate to incorporate the heightened risks in the current macro environment, brings WACC up to 13%. Lastly, I adjusted the terminal growth rate down from 2% to 1.5%.</p><p>With that, my target price for Upstart is $80.17, implying an upside of 140% from current levels. The target price of $80.17 implies a 30x 2023F P/E and a 19x 2024F P/E, while earnings growth is expected to average 42% during that period according to Bloomberg consensus.</p><p>I think that based on my target price, the higher valuation multiple is warranted given that Upstart is a pure play company with a lending platform based on a proven AI model with a large expansion opportunity into different credit products.</p><p><b>RisksConcentration on unsecured personal loans</b></p><p>Although I mentioned earlier that Upstart has started venturing into auto loans and are looking into options into new products down the road, the majority of its revenues today come from its bread and butter unsecured personal loans segment. This, in my view, is a concentration risk from a business point of view. The roll out and execution of its expansion into new products and new loan categories could be positive to the share price but any slowing of deployment into these new categories and segments could be negative to share price.</p><p><b>Fluctuations in economic conditions</b></p><p>As with all credit issuers and players in the industry, Upstart&#39;s business model and its growth of loan volumes are both very vulnerable to drastic changes in the economy or to financial shocks. This could prove to be particularly painful for Upstart due to its inexperience in handling a downturn. Also, I believe that the risk might be further amplified for Upstart since their AI models have yet to be very extensively tested during a serious financial downturn. Although Upstart does not take balance sheet risks, this could very severely impact the platform and AI model&#39;s credibility.</p><p><b>Competition</b></p><p>Although Upstart has an advantage in its extensive use of AI and machine learning, it could be detrimental to Upstart if its competitors are able to build an AI model more superior to that of Upstart. Thus, it is crucial for Upstart to continue to invest in R&amp;D and continuously improve its AI models and machine learning capabilities to ensure a stronger competitive advantage and to have strong barriers of entry for competitors to establish a similar product.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>All in all, I think that Upstart&#39;s valuation is currently very attractive given the recent share price fall, which has skewed its risk/reward perspective positively. I think that while the lowered guidance may be disappointing, we have to remember that Upstart is in the lending business, which is inherently cyclical. This lowered guidance is understandable given the rising rates environment and normalising of delinquencies as the pandemic subsides.</p><p>However, the sensitivity of rising rates and delinquencies to the conversion rates and hence transaction volume, is something that I took away from the recent results. Lastly, on the increase of balance sheet loans, I think when we understand the context that it is small and temporary, and the reason behind it, the controlled use of balance sheet loans to act as the bridge to improve fluidity in the system is an essential one for the business in a challenging time. With a target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart: Overreaction Brings Excellent Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-12 13:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4510465-upstart-overreaction-brings-excellent-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2234991443","content_text":"SummaryUpstart recently reported its 1Q22 earnings, which resulted in stock price falling 56%.Lower guidance of 11% acceptable given the rising rate environment and normalising delinquencies resulting in lower approvals and conversion rates.Balance sheet risk overblown given that it represents a small percentage of total loans transacted in 1Q22 and the need for it given the changing interest rate environment.The sensitivity of Upstart's business to interest rates and delinquencies is not unique to Upstart and represents macro factors not within management control, which could be interesting to watch.Based on my target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels and implies 30x/19x 2023F/2024F P/E respectively.DKosig/iStock via Getty ImagesWith the recent 56% drop in Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), I dive deeper into its recent 1Q22 earnings to find out if such a huge decline in share price is warranted.Data by YChartsInvestment thesisI have written an initial article and subsequentarticle elaborating on the investment thesis for Upstart. There's lots that I am positive on with regards to Upstart, and here are the key investment highlights for the company:Upstart's superior Artificial Intelligence (AI) model brings real benefits to both consumers and its banking partners, and this AI competitive advantage will only improve and widen with time.Capital light model as an intermediary between consumers and its banking partners.Upstart is expanding its total addressable market (TAM) into the huge auto loan origination market, demonstrating a large market opportunity.Upstart's margins and unit economics have seen improvements and will likely continue in that trend as a result of increased automation and scale.1Q22 in-line while guidance slightly weakWhile 1Q22 results were in-line with expectations, the main disappointment came from the lower guidance as well as the increased use of the balance sheet for its loans (explained in the following section). The guidance was lowered to $1.25 billion for 2022, down from the initial guidance of $1.4 billion for 2022 in the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2022 was also guided downward from 17% in the prior quarter to 15% in the current quarter.I think that the lower guidance is expected given the industry that Upstart is operating in. The lending industry is a cyclical industry and this is probably one of the more challenging environments in which it is operating right now. There are multiple headwinds for the lending industry and one of the biggest is the rising interest rates, rising delinquencies, and fears of a recession happening.With the increased perceived risk in the economy, this is resulting in higher pricing on Upstart's platform as the investors in these loans require higher returns to compensate for this risk. As such, Upstart has seen a 300 basis point increase in the average loan pricing since October, as highlighted by management. This high pricing then results in lower approval rates and lower transaction volumes.As such, the lowering of guidance is within my expectations as it represents an 11% decrease in revenue guidance. However, I think that we need to be aware of the downside risks, which includes a recession actually happening or the Fed increasing rates more than expected. These scenarios could result in significantly lower transaction volumes.Use of balance sheet raises concernsDuring the quarter, we saw Upstart's balance sheet loans rise from $260 million in the previous quarter to $605 million in 1Q22. Traditionally, if you recall from the previous article, the use of the balance sheet has only been exclusively used for Upstart's R&D. As such, with an $345 million increase in loans on its balance sheets, I can see why this raises the eyebrows of some investors.When I look closer into the management commentary during the earnings call, I gain a greater clarity into the context and the reason for use of balance sheet during the quarter.First, I will touch on the context of this balance sheet risk. As highlighted by CFO Sanjay, the amount of platform loans that ended up in its balance sheet was in the single digit percentage compared to its total platform loans. Furthermore, of that single digit percentage of loans that end up in its balance sheet, three-quarters of it, or $454 million, is still used for R&D, mainly in auto loans and other new products. As such, the remaining one-quarter, which makes up $150 million of loans, was put on the balance sheet. Putting this into context, Upstart had $4,535 million in transaction loan dollars in 1Q22, which means that this $150 million of loans that ended up in the balance sheet only account for 3% of total 1Q22 loans.Second, I will touch on the reason for use of the balance sheet for these loans. CFO Sanjay gave a very good explanation of this, in my view. As highlighted before, historically, the company only used its balance sheet exclusively for R&D. However, that was a different environment from what Upstart is operating in today. With interest rates changing quite quickly in the new interest rate environment, it needs to use the balance sheet loans as a market clearing mechanism, which acts as a temporary stop-gap measure in order for the platform to adjust to faster moving market rates. The need for this temporary measure is because the platform currently has a limited ability to react to fast moving rates as the process is rather manual at the moment. As a result, when rates move and investors are deciding what is the new hurdle return, the delay in funding as a result needs to be plugged in and that is where the $150 million of balance sheet loans not used for R&D is used.Although the use of the balance sheet does bring additional risks to Upstart, I think of this as a temporary measure that the company can leverage on to improve its response time to fast changing market conditions, and this will likely not be either sizable or long term, as reiterated by Sanjay as well. As Upstart uses its balance sheet in a controlled manner in the near term as a market clearing mechanism, this paves the way for Upstart to develop a more nimble and automated mechanism to improve its response time to market conditions.Ultimately, as management highlighted, they view Upstart as a platform and not as one that holds excessive balance sheet risks. This platform should work as a marketplace where the discovery of price takes place as well as the funding of loans by institutional investors. This has worked fluidly in the past, and currently, is less fluid. As such, to ensure sufficient fluidity in the system, Upstart decided to use its balance sheet to act as a bridge. As highlighted before, the company is investing in its market clearing mechanism to ensure no or fewer balance sheet participation in the future.Sensitivity to interest rates and delinquencies not unique to UpstartManagement highlighted several times both this quarter's and the previous quarter's earnings call that a rise in delinquencies is expected given the waning of government stimulus resulting in delinquencies normalising. As can be seen by the independent KBRA data, annualised net losses and delinquencies have risen across the board for tier 2 names like Upstart, Upgrade, Prosper and Lending Club Prime. This represents a normalisation of net losses and delinquencies to the pre-pandemic levels.KBRA Marketplace Consumer Loan Indices (KBRA; Citi)This means that Upstart's loans have underperformed due to the changing credit conditions, and along with rising delinquencies, this results in a lower conversion rate for Upstart in 1Q22 of 21.4% compared to 24.4% in the prior quarter.As such, for conversion rates to return to prior quarter levels, it is a function of interest rates and delinquencies. The higher the interest rates, the less likely conversion rates can improve as this means higher pricing for loans on its platform and lower acceptance rates. The higher the delinquencies, the higher the pricing for loans as well, leading to a similar outcome.On a positive note, management highlighted that they have seen delinquency stabilise for the past 2 months. Furthermore, this trend of normalising of loss rates and delinquencies is clearly not unique to Upstart as it affects other tier 2 players as well. This is encouraging and worth watching going into the next quarter how well Upstart does compared to the other tier 2s. However, I am surprised by how sensitive Upstart's business is to higher interest rates and this may mean that Upstart may be more cyclical than what many investors initially thought.ValuationI am adjusting my model that was highlighted in my initial article for the changes in guidance as well as changing macro environment this year. I lower my nearer term financial forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to be more in-line with the 11% decrease in revenue guidance for 2022 announced in 1Q22 results. Further, I apply a higher discount rate to incorporate the heightened risks in the current macro environment, brings WACC up to 13%. Lastly, I adjusted the terminal growth rate down from 2% to 1.5%.With that, my target price for Upstart is $80.17, implying an upside of 140% from current levels. The target price of $80.17 implies a 30x 2023F P/E and a 19x 2024F P/E, while earnings growth is expected to average 42% during that period according to Bloomberg consensus.I think that based on my target price, the higher valuation multiple is warranted given that Upstart is a pure play company with a lending platform based on a proven AI model with a large expansion opportunity into different credit products.RisksConcentration on unsecured personal loansAlthough I mentioned earlier that Upstart has started venturing into auto loans and are looking into options into new products down the road, the majority of its revenues today come from its bread and butter unsecured personal loans segment. This, in my view, is a concentration risk from a business point of view. The roll out and execution of its expansion into new products and new loan categories could be positive to the share price but any slowing of deployment into these new categories and segments could be negative to share price.Fluctuations in economic conditionsAs with all credit issuers and players in the industry, Upstart's business model and its growth of loan volumes are both very vulnerable to drastic changes in the economy or to financial shocks. This could prove to be particularly painful for Upstart due to its inexperience in handling a downturn. Also, I believe that the risk might be further amplified for Upstart since their AI models have yet to be very extensively tested during a serious financial downturn. Although Upstart does not take balance sheet risks, this could very severely impact the platform and AI model's credibility.CompetitionAlthough Upstart has an advantage in its extensive use of AI and machine learning, it could be detrimental to Upstart if its competitors are able to build an AI model more superior to that of Upstart. Thus, it is crucial for Upstart to continue to invest in R&D and continuously improve its AI models and machine learning capabilities to ensure a stronger competitive advantage and to have strong barriers of entry for competitors to establish a similar product.ConclusionAll in all, I think that Upstart's valuation is currently very attractive given the recent share price fall, which has skewed its risk/reward perspective positively. I think that while the lowered guidance may be disappointing, we have to remember that Upstart is in the lending business, which is inherently cyclical. This lowered guidance is understandable given the rising rates environment and normalising of delinquencies as the pandemic subsides.However, the sensitivity of rising rates and delinquencies to the conversion rates and hence transaction volume, is something that I took away from the recent results. Lastly, on the increase of balance sheet loans, I think when we understand the context that it is small and temporary, and the reason behind it, the controlled use of balance sheet loans to act as the bridge to improve fluidity in the system is an essential one for the business in a challenging time. With a target price of $80.17, this implies an upside of 140% from current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039978497,"gmtCreate":1645916699047,"gmtModify":1676534073601,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039978497","repostId":"9030487350","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9030487350,"gmtCreate":1645786805505,"gmtModify":1676534064206,"author":{"id":"9000000000000419","authorId":"9000000000000419","name":"WallStreet_Tiger","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1fdbba25bcf5dea3f281241ba1320d10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Sharp Reversal in USD, Bonds & Stocks: Is US Really a Safe Haven?","htmlText":"It turns out that ever since the financial crisis time and again anytime there is financial turmoil anywhere in the world including in the US itself money tends to come to the US&nbsp;in search of a safe haven. The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance in 2014 US&nbsp;is the ultimate safe haven for your money. It’s largely insulated from the Russia-Ukraine war fallout. Blackstone’s Joe Zidle says&nbsp;in&nbsp;2022 It&nbsp;looks&nbsp;like&nbsp;after&nbsp;8&nbsp;years,&nbsp;the&nbsp;world&nbsp;is&nbsp;still&nbsp;trapped&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;\"dollar&nbsp;trap\"&nbsp;and&nbsp;US&nbsp;remains&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;the&nbsp;top&nbsp;safe&nbsp;haven.&nbsp; What&nbsp;kinds&nbsp;of&nbsp;Safe&nbsp;Assets&nbsp;can&nbsp;we&nbsp;buy? Safe Asset includes: 1) Currency: th","listText":"It turns out that ever since the financial crisis time and again anytime there is financial turmoil anywhere in the world including in the US itself money tends to come to the US&nbsp;in search of a safe haven. The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance in 2014 US&nbsp;is the ultimate safe haven for your money. It’s largely insulated from the Russia-Ukraine war fallout. Blackstone’s Joe Zidle says&nbsp;in&nbsp;2022 It&nbsp;looks&nbsp;like&nbsp;after&nbsp;8&nbsp;years,&nbsp;the&nbsp;world&nbsp;is&nbsp;still&nbsp;trapped&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;\"dollar&nbsp;trap\"&nbsp;and&nbsp;US&nbsp;remains&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;the&nbsp;top&nbsp;safe&nbsp;haven.&nbsp; What&nbsp;kinds&nbsp;of&nbsp;Safe&nbsp;Assets&nbsp;can&nbsp;we&nbsp;buy? Safe Asset includes: 1) Currency: th","text":"It turns out that ever since the financial crisis time and again anytime there is financial turmoil anywhere in the world including in the US itself money tends to come to the US in search of a safe haven. The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance in 2014 US is the ultimate safe haven for your money. It’s largely insulated from the Russia-Ukraine war fallout. Blackstone’s Joe Zidle says in 2022 It looks like after 8 years, the world is still trapped in the \"dollar trap\" and US remains to be the top safe haven. What kinds of Safe Assets can we buy? Safe Asset includes: 1) Currency: th","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40180a293d6fa23d2dcba5a867d04011","width":"727","height":"485"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a29163e501f51f73816b6004a53a877","width":"743","height":"443"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b9b1eb8dfca7470ec0834733f77658b","width":"831","height":"456"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030487350","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072690387,"gmtCreate":1658022682649,"gmtModify":1676536094470,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072690387","repostId":"2251454462","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2251454462","pubTimestamp":1657899960,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2251454462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-15 23:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Upstart Holdings (UPST) Price Target Cut at Morgan Stanley on 'Cyclical Headwinds'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2251454462","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ: UPST) was reiterated with an Underweight rating by Morgan Stanley analyst ","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<img src=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/images/summaries/1938/resize_upstart.jpg\"/>\n</div>\n</div>\nUpstart Holdings (NASDAQ: UPST) was reiterated with an Underweight rating by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analyst James Faucette, who cut the firm's ...<br/><br/>(Premium-only article. Please sign in or upgrade to SI Premium to view.)<div><div><div></div></div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart Holdings (UPST) Price Target Cut at Morgan Stanley on 'Cyclical Headwinds'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart Holdings (UPST) Price Target Cut at Morgan Stanley on 'Cyclical Headwinds'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 23:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=20330917><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ: UPST) was reiterated with an Underweight rating by Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette, who cut the firm's ...(Premium-only article. Please sign in or upgrade to SI Premium...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=20330917\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TGT":"塔吉特","MS":"摩根士丹利","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4114":"综合货品商店","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=20330917","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2251454462","content_text":"Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ: UPST) was reiterated with an Underweight rating by Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette, who cut the firm's ...(Premium-only article. Please sign in or upgrade to SI Premium to view.)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024048356,"gmtCreate":1653784525275,"gmtModify":1676535339841,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes buy","listText":"Yes buy","text":"Yes buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024048356","repostId":"2238163298","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238163298","pubTimestamp":1653654558,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2238163298?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-27 20:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snowflake Stock Melted Over 70% - Is It A Long-Term Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238163298","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummarySnowflake just reported its Q1 FY23 performance with a beat on the top and bottom line.Althou","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Snowflake just reported its Q1 FY23 performance with a beat on the top and bottom line.</li><li>Although FY23 guidance remained unchanged, management increased markedly its FY29 margin targets.</li><li>The business is already cash-flow positive and has a robust balance sheet to fuel future growth and potential acquisitions.</li><li>This founder-led company has a proven track record of innovation, making it a relevant investment for the long term.</li><li>SNOW has fallen below its 2020 IPO price and is the cheapest it&#39;s ever been, despite beating expectations every quarter since going public.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/445d170b0516abcda967ac205c4fc12c\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>With the Nasdaq close to 30% off its peak, the market continues to be very challenging, particularly for growth stock investors.</p><p>By some measures, it&#39;s been the worst start of the year for stocks since the Great Depression. In addition, the American Association of Individual Investors shared that more than half of individual investors are bearish.</p><p>The market is already assuming the chance of a recession is higher than 50%. Therefore, it leads us to wonder what the impact could be on the growth of software businesses in the near term.</p><p>Jamin Ball, a partner at Altimeter, recently shared how the fundamentals of software stocks were affected during the 2008 Great Recession. His research shows public SaaS companies saw a revenue growth slowdown in 2009 before re-accelerating in 2010.</p><p>With a potential recession and rising interest rates on the horizon, many investors wouldn&#39;t touch fast-growing technology stocks with a ten-foot pole. As a result, many of them are down 40%, 60%, or even 80% from their high.</p><p>And the stock <i>du jour</i>, Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW), is no exception. The share price is now more than 70% off its peak and at an all-time low after reporting Q1 FY23.</p><p>Cloud software valuations have come down toward the lower end of their historical spectrum. While things could get worse before they get better, some high-quality companies are offering their most attractive entry points in 10+ years.</p><p>Of course, cheap can always get cheaper.</p><p>Let&#39;s use an example with Salesforce (CRM), a company already public during the Great Recession and has had a relatively stable growth profile. Salesforce has been trading from 6x to 12x revenue in the past 12 years and is currently below 6x. But if we look at 2009, the revenue multiple collapsed to 3x for a few months.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbfeac2f04633b414ea0f10b14c35538\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><ul><li>Could a similar sell-off occur in the quarters ahead? Yes, it could.</li><li>Would it change the long-term potential of the underlying business? Probably not.</li></ul><p>Recessions don&#39;t last forever. They last 11 months on average, as I recently discussed in my article about How To Invest In A Bear Market.</p><p>In this context, if you have a multi-year time horizon, developing a buyer mentality is essential. After all, Warren Buffett said we should be &#34;greedy when others are fearful.&#34;</p><p>Would I go &#34;all-in&#34; today? No, I wouldn&#39;t.</p><p>I&#39;m a rule-based and process-focused investor. I explain my approach in my article covering 4 Rules To Protect Your Portfolio. I invest a fixed amount every month, so I&#39;ve been a happy buyer lately. However, focusing on quality is paramount. And talking about quality, Snowflake checks many of my favorite boxes.</p><p>Let&#39;s review what makes SNOW an elite company, digest the numbers behind the recent quarter, and put its expensive price tag in perspective.</p><p><b>What Should You Know About Snowflake?</b></p><p>Snowflake&#39;s mission is to enable every organization to be data-driven.</p><p>The company offers a cloud-built data warehouse that delivers instant elasticity and secure data sharing across multiple clouds. It combines the power of data warehousing, the flexibility of big data platforms, and the cloud&#39;s elasticity at a fraction of the cost of traditional solutions.</p><p>Snowflake operates as a Data PaaS or Data Warehouse as-a-Service (DWaaS).</p><p>It partners with leading IaaS data service providers or &#34;hyperscalers&#34; (Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform) and delivers additional features. While it relies on these giant cloud providers, Snowflake also competes with several features they offer. The company defines its ecosystem as Data Cloud.</p><p>Snowflake&#39;s architecture has three layers:</p><ul><li><b>Storage</b>: Database data centrally stored in cloud storage.</li><li><b>Compute</b>: Multiple, independent compute clusters process queries.</li><li><b>Cloud services</b>: Independent management services manage metadata, optimization, security, etc.</li></ul><p>Snowflake&#39;s decoupled architecture allows for storage and compute to scale separately. Customers can use the storage from any cloud provider. Snowflake is faster and more efficient by using massively parallel processing or MPP. Management calls this a &#34;virtual data warehouse.&#34; A virtual warehouse can access the storage layer independently. It allows the company to quickly process a massive amount of data and scale based on the customer&#39;s needs. Snowflake&#39;s competitors combine compute and storage, making them costlier and harder to scale.</p><p><b>Snowflake Architecture </b><b>(Investor Presentation)</b></p><p>Snowflake&#39;s customers can scale up or down their storage and compute needs.</p><p>The role of the data cloud is to cover all data-related functions under <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> roof:</p><ul><li>Data Engineering.</li><li>Data Lake.</li><li>Data Warehouse.</li><li>Data Science.</li><li>Data Applications.</li><li>Data Sharing.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a90e083d230ffd0226587bf2997e78\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"489\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake&#39;s Platform (Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>A critical aspect of Snowflake&#39;s success is its expanding ecosystem of integration and the ability for customers to use it across any cloud provider:</p><ul><li>Snowflake is cloud-agnostic.</li><li>The platform integrates well with systems, apps, and services.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aab1045851189c9fa7c41d0b781840e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Partner Ecosystem (Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>But the most exciting part of Snowflake&#39;s Data Cloud is the breadth of innovation ahead. Here are a few topics discussed at Snowflake Summit:</p><ul><li><b>Connected industries</b>: Snowflake partners well with consulting groups that can turn into sales funnels for the company. Snowflake keeps innovating to serve new data needs and power new types of collaborations. For example, providing capacity to customers to monetize their data via Snowflake, who would be handling billing and distribution.</li><li><b>Global governance</b>: Easily ensure privacy compliance at scale (particularly for the finance and healthcare industry).</li><li><b>Platform optimization</b>: Performance, efficiency, capabilities.</li><li><b>Data programmability</b>: More value from data, making it easier and more flexible.</li><li><b>Powered by Snowflake</b>, a partner program to help software companies build, market, and operate apps on Snowflake Data Cloud.</li></ul><p>Snowflake also shows its international ambition with more than 26 offices worldwide, including 18 outside of the United States.</p><p>In 2021, Snowflake received an NPS (Net Promoter Score) or 68, more than three times higher than the industry average. The company also sports a perfect Dresner Customer Satisfaction Score in the past four years, with 100% of customers recommending Snowflake.</p><p>Let&#39;s not forget that Snowflake has been celebrated as a fantastic employer and one of the World&#39;s Most Innovative Companies (Fast Company, 2021).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23d210d1f23de662b2c995d093b7c0c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"161\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake employee reviews (Glassdoor)</span></p><p><b>How Does Snowflake Make Money?</b></p><p>Snowflake bills customers only for what they use. Therefore, most of the revenue is consumption-based (93% in Q1 FY23). Revenue is recognized as consumption occurs and is primarily billed annually in advance. Contract durations increase over time based on customer commitments.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf077728848d273dfce38af89020995\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Business Model (Snowflake Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>Billings are a critical indicator for companies that use a subscription model, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PATH\">UiPath</a> (PATH). For Snowflake, not so much. The billings show the cash flow timing, but they do not indicate actual consumption on the platform. Instead, management focuses on:</p><ul><li><b>Product revenue</b>: the GAAP revenue as consumption occurs.</li><li><b>RPO</b> (Remaining Performance Obligation): Contracted future revenue not yet recognized (yet to be billed).</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86a9a0d43ba31c1d15e668acb309f16e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Key Metrics (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>There are two ways to buy the Snowflake Service:</p><ul><li><b>On-Demand</b><i>:</i> Similar to AWS. Customers are charged a fixed rate for services used, billed monthly in arrears.</li><li><b>Pre-purchased Capacity</b><i>:</i> Customers pay a specific dollar commitment to Snowflake, paid in advance for a set term, allowing discounts. Customers pay via Snowflake Credits.</li></ul><p>Snowflake has an elite dollar-based net revenue retention rate of 174%. It means customers have spent 74% more on Snowflake in the past 12 months than they did in the previous 12 months, net of churn (customer loss).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/044334af456ec4f504df6e137e5c48bf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake NRR (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>A substantial risk to keep in mind is that the consumption model can also turn against Snowflake one day. If new entrants or competitors offer a cheaper or better solution, customers would be able to scale down their consumption.</p><p><b>SNOW Q1 FY23 Earnings Key Metrics</b></p><p>So now that we&#39;ve established how Snowflake is increasing its revenue per customer quickly, let&#39;s review how the company is growing its customer count.</p><p>At the end of the most recent quarter, Snowflake had:</p><ul><li>6,322 Total customers (+40% Y/Y, +6% Q/Q).</li><li>206 Customers with TTM revenue &gt; $1M (+98% Y/Y, +12% Q/Q).</li><li>506 Forbes Global Customers (+22% Y/Y, +3% Q/Q).</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0ab6c3aaa78d03818e59ce81716abd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake customer wins (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>At this point, only 3% of customers spend more than $1M annually. However, this portion is likely to increase significantly over time as customer increase their platform use.</p><p>The sheer total customer growth (+40%) is impressive and was barely a slow down from +44% in Q4 FY22.</p><p>Management has excellent visibility on future customer commitments, with RPO reaching $2.6B in Q1 FY23 (+82% Y/Y).</p><p>Note that RPO was flat sequentially, which may have spooked some investors. While RPO growth can be a great indicator of future revenue growth as a backlog of customer commitments, it&#39;s important to note that it&#39;s not perfect. Snowflake shows all RPO as opposed to RPO looking one year out. This figure ultimately depends on the length of the signed contracts, which can differ from one quarter to the next. As a result, not all periods are comparable depending on incentives given to sales reps to extend the length of contracts. Management explained during the earnings call that Q4 FY22 was an outlier.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c9533e8b27e4c1aebdc388ff1e6d37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake RPO (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>Snowflake is the fastest growing business of this scale on public markets. Annual revenue reached $1.2B in FY22 (+106% Y/Y). According to CFO Michael Scarpelli, the company is on track to be the fastest to reach $10B.</p><p>Note below that management separates product revenue (based on consumption) from professional services in their guidance.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023c02a12f671b999dbc84d3c8066032\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Revenue Growth (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>It&#39;s important to note that onboarding customers on Snowflake is time-consuming. It takes on average north of 200 days for customers to get up to the consumption rate they were contracted for. Database management takes time to set up. But once customers are up and running, they spend a lot more on Snowflake over time.</p><p>Let&#39;s dig into the numbers with the most recent quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39dbedb3fbd0989e7d01a20f30f79a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Q1 FY23 Highlights (Earnings Slides)</span></p><p><b>Q1 FY23 Highlights:</b></p><ul><li>Product Revenue was $394M (+84% Y/Y, vs. guidance of +80%).</li><li>Product Gross margin 66% (flat Y/Y).</li><li>GAAP operating loss margin was -45% (+45pp Y/Y).</li><li>Non-GAAP operating margin was 0% (+66pp Y/Y), vs. guidance of -2%.</li><li>Operating cash flow was $185M, a 44% OCF margin (+34pp Y/Y).</li><li>Free cash flow was $172M, an 41% FCF margin (+35pp Y/Y).</li><li>Cash and investments on the balance sheet were $3.8B.</li><li>Long-term debt was $0.2B.</li></ul><p><b>Guidance:</b></p><p>Q2 FY23:</p><ul><li>Product Revenue ~$435M-$440M (+72% Y/Y, +11% sequentially).</li><li>Non-GAAP operating margin -2%.</li></ul><p>Full Year FY23</p><ul><li>Product Revenue $1.9B (+66% Y/Y) - unchanged.</li><li>Non-GAAP operating margin 1% - unchanged.</li></ul><p>FY23 guidance shows growth normalization and continued margin expansion.</p><p>Let&#39;s put the past year in context:</p><ul><li><b>FY22 Guidance</b> (February 2021): Revenue $1B and adj. op. margin -19%.</li><li><b>FY22 Actual</b>: Revenue $1.2B (+$0.2B) and adj. op. margin -3% (+16pp).</li></ul><p>Management has a history of underpromising and overdelivering. That makes the FY23 guidance even more compelling.</p><p>The company&#39;s consumption model can make growth lumpy. While the consumption model is uncapped and can lead to a higher revenue per customer over time, it&#39;s also less predictable.</p><p>Despite this challenge, Snowflake has consistently beaten expectations on the top line (more on that in the valuation section below). It&#39;s important to note that customer-friendly improvements lowered the cost of Snowflake, adversely impacting short-term growth (~$97M impact in FY23). In short, customers can do more with the same amount of Snowflake Credits. This type of headwind is a net positive for long-term growth because it increases the odds of customers moving their data to Snowflake. Customer-centric management favoring long-term over short-term outcomes is what I want to see in my portfolio.</p><p>Should we expect Snowflake to be impacted by a potential recession?</p><p>CFO Mike Scarpelli explained during the Q1 FY23 call:</p><blockquote><i>Last year, we saw certain customers experience much higher than expected consumption -- own businesses were growing extremely fast. Today, some customers face a more challenging operating environment. Specific customers consume less than we anticipated amid shifting economic circumstances, we believe are unique to their businesses, most notably consumer facing cloud companies.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Although these customers are still growing, we believe as long as they are impacted by macroeconomic headwinds their consumption will be impacted. Consumption patterns may fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. This variability does not detract from our long-term opportunity. Customer’s overall demand for Snowflake remains unchanged. This is supported by the contractual commitments they are making with us and their longer-term plans for adopting the data cloud across their organization.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>[...] What I will say is April, we did see weakness in week-over-week growth in our total revenue by customer. But to be honest, the last two weeks of March or May has been very strong. But just given everything in the macro headwinds we&#39;re hearing, we&#39;re going to be a little bit more cautious going into the full year.</i></blockquote><p>If we look at the margin trends, they are excellent. The gross margin and operating margin improved steadily. The company is spending less on Sales &amp; Marketing over time, demonstrating an efficient go-to-market strategy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf1db4ed5ba1122167e8270f83e15a28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Gross Margin (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>Non-GAAP gross margin improvements are attributed to scalability, product improvement, and cloud agreement pricing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc7cab78ab1e8deccd12433856c4ac8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Operating Leverage (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>All non-GAAP operating expenses are falling, largely thanks to scalability.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1a81419d7769ac7353774b8b54481a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Cash Flow (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>As a result, cash flow margins have continued to improve.</p><p>Now let&#39;s look at the GAAP margin trends, which factor in stock-based compensation.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e17bfea7d7b69a40cdbc39354c4d3d9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><ul><li><b>Gross margin</b> has been improving, at 65% in Q1 FY23.</li><li><b>Sales &amp; marketing costs</b> remained high, at 58% of revenue in Q1 FY23.</li><li><b>Operating margin</b> is improving steadily, at -45% in Q1 FY23.</li></ul><p>Stock-based compensation is the main difference between GAAP and non-GAAP margins:</p><ul><li>In FY22, SBC was $675M (+114% Y/Y) or 55% of revenue in FY22.</li><li>In Q1 FY23, SBC was $183M (+10% Y/Y) or 44% of revenue (-29pp Y/Y).</li></ul><p>I expect SBC to represent less in percentage of revenue over time. From a dilution perspective, the impact is relatively small (FY22 SBC was less than 2% of the market cap).</p><p>We can summarize the recent results as follows:</p><ul><li>Exceptional revenue growth at +84% Y/Y - showing <i>strength</i>.</li><li>High gross margin at 65% - showing <i>long-term potential.</i></li><li>Falling sales &amp; marketing costs - showing the <i>scalability</i>.</li><li>Improving adj. operating margin - showing <i>operating leverage</i>.</li><li>Positive net cash position on the balance sheet and positive cash flow from operations - showing <i>sustainability</i>.</li></ul><p><b>What should we expect from Snowflake&#39;s margin over time?</b></p><p>Management previously shared their long-term operating model by the time they reach $10B in annual revenue. They significantly upgraded the margin targets for FY29:</p><ul><li>Revenue growth around +30% Y/Y (unchanged).</li><li>Non-GAAP gross margin around 78% (+3pp).</li><li>Non-GAAP operating margin around 20% (+10pp).</li><li>FCF margin is around 25% (+10pp).</li></ul><p>During the investor presentation Q&amp;A last year, CFO Michael Scarpelli clarified that the margin targets were worst-case scenarios. Since Snowflake is on track to achieve an FCF margin of 16% in FY23, the projection still appears conservative.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ae90a0023b5a49b47a3296a9e561c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Guidance (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p><b>How Big Is Snowflake&#39;s Lead On Competitors?</b></p><p>Snowflake&#39;s management breaks down the competition into four categories:</p><ul><li><b>Large, well-established, public cloud providers,also known as&#34;hyperscalers,&#34;</b> with specific features such as AWS Redshift (AMZN), Google BigQuery (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure Synapse Analytics (MSFT). They compete in all of Snowflake&#39;s markets.</li><li><b>Less-established public and private cloud companies</b> with products competing in some of Snowflake&#39;s markets, such as Cloudera, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> (IBM), Databricks, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDC\">Teradata</a>.</li><li><b>Other established vendors</b>of legacy database solutions or big data offerings, including Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP).</li><li><b>New or emerging entrants</b> seeking to develop competing technologies.</li></ul><p>When I invest in a category, my preference generally goes to the best companies. And evidence shows Snowflake is among the very best performers in Data Warehouse. Below is the G2 Grid for Data Warehouse. You can find Snowflake in the top right of the chart as the best performer, alongside AWS.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4451761c034e3f28141d965df7e753e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"688\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>G2 Grid Data Warehouse (G2)</span></p><p>Snowflake also appears as a leader in the Forrester Wave for Cloud Data Warehouse (see below). Other leaders in the field are AWS, Google, Microsoft, Oracle, and Teradata.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d8f0c71aceca3764d8a3ce6735deff3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"848\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Cloud Data Warehouse (The Forrester Wave)</span></p><p>The Gartner Magic Quadrant for Data Management Solutions for Analytics has not been publicly updated for three years. At the time, it showed Snowflake among the leaders as well.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95187d7ffa2508faba52e7582e3234bc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Magic Quadrant Data Management (Gartner)</span></p><p>So what is the moat? To fend off competition, Snowflake benefits from:</p><ul><li><b>Network effects</b>: With artificial intelligence tools, Snowflake is getting smarter and better with every additional customer, <i>a la</i> CrowdStrike (CRWD). More importantly, Snowflake builds custom solutions for industry leaders and their needs (e.g., governance, security, data sharing), opening, in turn, the opportunity for more industry members to join the platform. To illustrate, 18% of customers had at least one data-sharing relationship in FY22, up from 13% in FY21.</li><li><b>Switching costs</b>: Since database management is time-consuming to set up correctly, over time, it becomes unlikely a customer would want to waste days, weeks, or months transitioning to another Data Warehouse system. The company&#39;s outstanding retention metrics illustrate this advantage. However, Snowflake&#39;s pricing will have to remain competitive.</li><li><b>Brand</b>: The growing popularity of Snowflake on DB engines combined with its customer satisfaction put it on the right track to building a strong brand.</li></ul><p>Snowflake provides the data cloud, analytics, and other services in one single provider. In addition, given Snowflake&#39;s focus on improving the platform&#39;s efficiency to keep customers happy, their competitive advantage is well-positioned to expand over time.</p><p>Competition is a fact of life for all the best businesses globally. However, I like Snowflake&#39;s position and odds of success given its agnostic position with the big cloud providers and its headstart on the rest of the market.</p><p><b>What Is The Long-Term Potential for Snowflake?</b></p><p>Snowflake is addressing an important, emerging industry.</p><p>Management estimated the addressable market for Cloud Data Platform to be approximately $90B at the end of January 2021 (up from $81B a year prior). The runway ahead remains gigantic since Snowflake had a run rate of just over $1B in FY22.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20576c6d082c2ae1b0569b5b0202d8b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Snowflake Market Opportunity (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)</span></p><p>IDC estimates the market for Analytics Data Management and Integration Platforms and Business Intelligence and Analytics Tools had a combined value of $56B at the end of 2020. It will grow to $84B by 2023 (+11% CAGR). The data sharing opportunity has not been defined or quantified, but it would add to this enormous market.</p><p>The explosion of data to drive business outcomes is a theme you&#39;ll find across many positions in the App Economy Portfolio, such as MongoDB (MDB) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a> (DDOG).</p><p>The increasing role of data in the decision process is something I&#39;ve witnessed firsthand through my gaming career as a Senior Director of Financial Planning &amp; Analysis. Positions like Data Analyst or Data Scientist didn&#39;t even exist 20 years ago. Even businesses that used to rely on superficial sales data to evaluate their performance are going much deeper.</p><p>Let&#39;s use the example of the gaming industry. A game publisher used to have only access to the number of units sold to retailers to evaluate the success of a title. Gaming used to be a simple physical retail business with units on shelves, just like any CPG business. Today, the KPIs are vast across user acquisition, monetization, and retention. It&#39;s a predominantly digital business migrating to the cloud. It now includes a plethora of data to drive operations, direct-to-consumer promotions, retention, and engagement tactics. Gaming is far from being the only industry shifting from the physical to the digital world with the explosion of data that comes with it. This logic applies to video and music entertainment, payments, shopping, work collaboration, healthcare, life science, banking, networking, etc. Data has become an essential tool to manage and improve CRM and business performance, and this trend is here to stay. Organizations across all industries are increasingly reliant on collecting, analyzing, and mobilizing data.</p><p>Let&#39;s recap the two key trends:</p><p><b>Trend 1) Explosion of data</b></p><p>Snowflake management argues that the proliferation of connected devices and applications results in an explosion of digital data. In turn, businesses have new needs that come with it:</p><blockquote><i>According to IDC, there will be 175 zettabytes of data by 2025, representing a CAGR of 27% from 33 zettabytes of data in 2018. This data contains valuable insights for organizations, including key business and performance metrics, customer attributes and behavior, and product strengths and capabilities.</i></blockquote><p><b>Trend 2) Cloud migration</b></p><p>Organizations are shifting from static on-premises IT architectures to a multi-cloud architecture. This migration is accelerating:</p><blockquote><i>According to IDC, 49% of data will be stored in public cloud environments by 2025, an increase from approximately 30% today. [...] 90% of Global 1000 Organizations will have a multi-cloud management strategy by 2024.</i></blockquote><p>According to Gartner:</p><ul><li>Public Cloud will grow from 58% of software spending in 2020 to 86% by 2025.</li><li>Database Management Systems and BI Platforms will more than triple between 2020 and 2025.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da43b23bfa68fe949466a2b6c23fb3d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Cloud migration (Snowflake Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>Snowflake&#39;s key leverages to drive growth looking forward are simple:</p><ul><li>More customers.</li><li>More product adoption from existing customers.</li><li>New products via platform expansion (governance, programmability, etc.).</li><li>International expansion.</li></ul><p>US Cloud computing alone is expected to grow at +18% CAGR, illustrating the runway ahead for the leaders in these categories.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2874bd8d4359836f37bb482e5eaaca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Cloud in % of IT Spending (Benedict Evans)</span></p><p><b>Snowflake Valuation: How Much Is Too Much?</b></p><p>Snowflake raised $3.4B at a $30B valuation for its IPO in 2020. However, Public investors never traded SNOW at the offering price of $120 per share. Instead, shares popped +112% on their first trading day. Unfortunately, the company left close to $4B on the table.</p><p>As soon as its first day as a public company, SNOW had a valuation north of $60B. Yet, as I write this line almost two years later, SNOW is down 13% in after-hours, trading at $115, below its pre-listing price. So far, SNOW has not been a great investment for public investors, but it doesn&#39;t mean it will stay that way.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93e3000fba15a4bbaa8b0f56d84f57f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>SNOW is now trading on the low-end of its valuation spectrum, at about 15 times forward sales (if we factor the after-hours sell-off).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c9c21c46b43308942e11809b3ea3205\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>More context on Snowflake&#39;s valuation (after-hours sell-off included):</p><ul><li>27 times FY22 revenue (past 12 months).</li><li>15 times FY23 revenue estimates.</li><li>11 times FY24 revenue estimates.</li><li>7 times FY25 revenue estimates.</li></ul><p>As you can see, even assuming the company merely meets Wall Street&#39;s expectations moving forward, it will &#34;grow into&#34; its valuation multiple pretty quickly. Since going public, the company has a stellar track record, beating expectations by 6% on average over seven quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46c12fdb5ac38b673af946fa9784b97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SNOW Revenue Surprise (Seeking Alpha Premium)</span></p><p>This type of outperformance can compound over time. To illustrate, Q1 FY23 estimated revenue was $350M when the company went public 18 months ago. Instead, the company just delivered $422M. So in a matter of 18 months, the difference between Wall Street&#39;s estimates and reality was more than 20%. So when I say SNOW is trading at 7 times FY25 revenue estimates, it might be even less if the uptrend continues.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95929dab3c3440b380b64691a233ecb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"217\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SNOW Consensus Revision (Seeking Alpha Premium)</span></p><p>Snowflake&#39;s revenue multiple will compress significantly in the coming years. But that&#39;s beside the point. Multiple compression and strong stock performance are not mutually exclusive.</p><p>Management projected $10B in annual product revenue by FY29 (i.e., Jan-2029). Importantly, this figure is simply a conservative extrapolation of the trend from the existing product offerings. Moreover, management now has a documented history of underpromising and overdelivering, so I wouldn&#39;t use this number to model a discounted cash flow analysis.</p><p>In seven years, with an annual revenue run rate of $10B, Snowflake might generate ~$4B of cash flow at scale while still growing at +30% Y/Y. Assuming dilution is entirely offset by the cash flow generated along the way, what will be Snowflake&#39;s market cap by then?</p><p>For giggles, we can look at what <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> (ADBE) looked like when it crossed $10B in revenue at the end of 2019 (pre-COVID). The company grew revenue in the low 20s and was valued at ~$170B or about 40 times free cash flow.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e942a67cbcd5ab65c7e99d65303a9b0c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>So what to expect from Snowflake if management can deliver on their path to $10B? Given SNOW&#39;s ~$32B valuation, it has the potential to more than triple in the next seven years, even by just meeting the $10B by FY29 target and assuming margins are on the low-end of expectations.</p><p>If management is conservative about its FY29 goal the same way they were about their FY22 goal, the potential returns could be much higher.</p><p>I want to avoid false precision and be directionally correct when looking at an opportunity. If Snowflake truly is on a path to being the fastest enterprise software company to reach $10B in annual revenue, I believe the returns will come in due time.</p><p><b>Is SNOW Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p>Snowflake is a stellar business that checks most of my favorite boxes.</p><ul><li>Founder-led.</li><li>High insider ownership.</li><li>A strong track record of innovation.</li><li>A category leader ahead of the pack.</li><li>Growing fast, with tremendous unit economics.</li><li>Recognized as a leading and best-in-class product.</li><li>In an essential emerging industry expected to boom.</li><li>Strong cash-flow margins with a robust balance sheet.</li><li>Amazing backers such as Buffett, Altimeter, Sequoia, and Tiger Global.</li></ul><p>Given its explosive customer growth and exceptional retention metrics, I believe it&#39;s only a matter of time before it grows into its valuation.</p><p>The company has proven to be capital efficient and has ample opportunity to fund its growth path forward.</p><p>SNOW has never been cheap since its 2020 IPO. And in the current macro environment, it has a higher risk of multiple compression. So, it should only be considered by investors with a multi-year time horizon.</p><p>Additionally, if revenue growth slows faster than expected in a challenging environment, the stock could be punished harshly in the short term. My solution to alleviate this risk is simple: start with a small position, and build up from here over several quarters based on the company&#39;s execution.</p><ul><li>Is Snowflake&#39;s valuation still too rich for your blood?</li><li>Do you believe the company has a long runway ahead?</li><li>Would Snowflake qualify as a high-quality business in your selection process?</li></ul><p>Let me know in the comments!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake Stock Melted Over 70% - Is It A Long-Term Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnowflake Stock Melted Over 70% - Is It A Long-Term Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-27 20:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514685-snowflake-stock-melted-over-70-percent-long-term-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySnowflake just reported its Q1 FY23 performance with a beat on the top and bottom line.Although FY23 guidance remained unchanged, management increased markedly its FY29 margin targets.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514685-snowflake-stock-melted-over-70-percent-long-term-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514685-snowflake-stock-melted-over-70-percent-long-term-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2238163298","content_text":"SummarySnowflake just reported its Q1 FY23 performance with a beat on the top and bottom line.Although FY23 guidance remained unchanged, management increased markedly its FY29 margin targets.The business is already cash-flow positive and has a robust balance sheet to fuel future growth and potential acquisitions.This founder-led company has a proven track record of innovation, making it a relevant investment for the long term.SNOW has fallen below its 2020 IPO price and is the cheapest it's ever been, despite beating expectations every quarter since going public.Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesWith the Nasdaq close to 30% off its peak, the market continues to be very challenging, particularly for growth stock investors.By some measures, it's been the worst start of the year for stocks since the Great Depression. In addition, the American Association of Individual Investors shared that more than half of individual investors are bearish.The market is already assuming the chance of a recession is higher than 50%. Therefore, it leads us to wonder what the impact could be on the growth of software businesses in the near term.Jamin Ball, a partner at Altimeter, recently shared how the fundamentals of software stocks were affected during the 2008 Great Recession. His research shows public SaaS companies saw a revenue growth slowdown in 2009 before re-accelerating in 2010.With a potential recession and rising interest rates on the horizon, many investors wouldn't touch fast-growing technology stocks with a ten-foot pole. As a result, many of them are down 40%, 60%, or even 80% from their high.And the stock du jour, Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW), is no exception. The share price is now more than 70% off its peak and at an all-time low after reporting Q1 FY23.Cloud software valuations have come down toward the lower end of their historical spectrum. While things could get worse before they get better, some high-quality companies are offering their most attractive entry points in 10+ years.Of course, cheap can always get cheaper.Let's use an example with Salesforce (CRM), a company already public during the Great Recession and has had a relatively stable growth profile. Salesforce has been trading from 6x to 12x revenue in the past 12 years and is currently below 6x. But if we look at 2009, the revenue multiple collapsed to 3x for a few months.Data by YChartsCould a similar sell-off occur in the quarters ahead? Yes, it could.Would it change the long-term potential of the underlying business? Probably not.Recessions don't last forever. They last 11 months on average, as I recently discussed in my article about How To Invest In A Bear Market.In this context, if you have a multi-year time horizon, developing a buyer mentality is essential. After all, Warren Buffett said we should be \"greedy when others are fearful.\"Would I go \"all-in\" today? No, I wouldn't.I'm a rule-based and process-focused investor. I explain my approach in my article covering 4 Rules To Protect Your Portfolio. I invest a fixed amount every month, so I've been a happy buyer lately. However, focusing on quality is paramount. And talking about quality, Snowflake checks many of my favorite boxes.Let's review what makes SNOW an elite company, digest the numbers behind the recent quarter, and put its expensive price tag in perspective.What Should You Know About Snowflake?Snowflake's mission is to enable every organization to be data-driven.The company offers a cloud-built data warehouse that delivers instant elasticity and secure data sharing across multiple clouds. It combines the power of data warehousing, the flexibility of big data platforms, and the cloud's elasticity at a fraction of the cost of traditional solutions.Snowflake operates as a Data PaaS or Data Warehouse as-a-Service (DWaaS).It partners with leading IaaS data service providers or \"hyperscalers\" (Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform) and delivers additional features. While it relies on these giant cloud providers, Snowflake also competes with several features they offer. The company defines its ecosystem as Data Cloud.Snowflake's architecture has three layers:Storage: Database data centrally stored in cloud storage.Compute: Multiple, independent compute clusters process queries.Cloud services: Independent management services manage metadata, optimization, security, etc.Snowflake's decoupled architecture allows for storage and compute to scale separately. Customers can use the storage from any cloud provider. Snowflake is faster and more efficient by using massively parallel processing or MPP. Management calls this a \"virtual data warehouse.\" A virtual warehouse can access the storage layer independently. It allows the company to quickly process a massive amount of data and scale based on the customer's needs. Snowflake's competitors combine compute and storage, making them costlier and harder to scale.Snowflake Architecture (Investor Presentation)Snowflake's customers can scale up or down their storage and compute needs.The role of the data cloud is to cover all data-related functions under one roof:Data Engineering.Data Lake.Data Warehouse.Data Science.Data Applications.Data Sharing.Snowflake's Platform (Investor Presentation)A critical aspect of Snowflake's success is its expanding ecosystem of integration and the ability for customers to use it across any cloud provider:Snowflake is cloud-agnostic.The platform integrates well with systems, apps, and services.Snowflake Partner Ecosystem (Investor Presentation)But the most exciting part of Snowflake's Data Cloud is the breadth of innovation ahead. Here are a few topics discussed at Snowflake Summit:Connected industries: Snowflake partners well with consulting groups that can turn into sales funnels for the company. Snowflake keeps innovating to serve new data needs and power new types of collaborations. For example, providing capacity to customers to monetize their data via Snowflake, who would be handling billing and distribution.Global governance: Easily ensure privacy compliance at scale (particularly for the finance and healthcare industry).Platform optimization: Performance, efficiency, capabilities.Data programmability: More value from data, making it easier and more flexible.Powered by Snowflake, a partner program to help software companies build, market, and operate apps on Snowflake Data Cloud.Snowflake also shows its international ambition with more than 26 offices worldwide, including 18 outside of the United States.In 2021, Snowflake received an NPS (Net Promoter Score) or 68, more than three times higher than the industry average. The company also sports a perfect Dresner Customer Satisfaction Score in the past four years, with 100% of customers recommending Snowflake.Let's not forget that Snowflake has been celebrated as a fantastic employer and one of the World's Most Innovative Companies (Fast Company, 2021).Snowflake employee reviews (Glassdoor)How Does Snowflake Make Money?Snowflake bills customers only for what they use. Therefore, most of the revenue is consumption-based (93% in Q1 FY23). Revenue is recognized as consumption occurs and is primarily billed annually in advance. Contract durations increase over time based on customer commitments.Snowflake Business Model (Snowflake Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)Billings are a critical indicator for companies that use a subscription model, such as UiPath (PATH). For Snowflake, not so much. The billings show the cash flow timing, but they do not indicate actual consumption on the platform. Instead, management focuses on:Product revenue: the GAAP revenue as consumption occurs.RPO (Remaining Performance Obligation): Contracted future revenue not yet recognized (yet to be billed).Snowflake Key Metrics (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)There are two ways to buy the Snowflake Service:On-Demand: Similar to AWS. Customers are charged a fixed rate for services used, billed monthly in arrears.Pre-purchased Capacity: Customers pay a specific dollar commitment to Snowflake, paid in advance for a set term, allowing discounts. Customers pay via Snowflake Credits.Snowflake has an elite dollar-based net revenue retention rate of 174%. It means customers have spent 74% more on Snowflake in the past 12 months than they did in the previous 12 months, net of churn (customer loss).Snowflake NRR (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)A substantial risk to keep in mind is that the consumption model can also turn against Snowflake one day. If new entrants or competitors offer a cheaper or better solution, customers would be able to scale down their consumption.SNOW Q1 FY23 Earnings Key MetricsSo now that we've established how Snowflake is increasing its revenue per customer quickly, let's review how the company is growing its customer count.At the end of the most recent quarter, Snowflake had:6,322 Total customers (+40% Y/Y, +6% Q/Q).206 Customers with TTM revenue > $1M (+98% Y/Y, +12% Q/Q).506 Forbes Global Customers (+22% Y/Y, +3% Q/Q).Snowflake customer wins (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)At this point, only 3% of customers spend more than $1M annually. However, this portion is likely to increase significantly over time as customer increase their platform use.The sheer total customer growth (+40%) is impressive and was barely a slow down from +44% in Q4 FY22.Management has excellent visibility on future customer commitments, with RPO reaching $2.6B in Q1 FY23 (+82% Y/Y).Note that RPO was flat sequentially, which may have spooked some investors. While RPO growth can be a great indicator of future revenue growth as a backlog of customer commitments, it's important to note that it's not perfect. Snowflake shows all RPO as opposed to RPO looking one year out. This figure ultimately depends on the length of the signed contracts, which can differ from one quarter to the next. As a result, not all periods are comparable depending on incentives given to sales reps to extend the length of contracts. Management explained during the earnings call that Q4 FY22 was an outlier.Snowflake RPO (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)Snowflake is the fastest growing business of this scale on public markets. Annual revenue reached $1.2B in FY22 (+106% Y/Y). According to CFO Michael Scarpelli, the company is on track to be the fastest to reach $10B.Note below that management separates product revenue (based on consumption) from professional services in their guidance.Snowflake Revenue Growth (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)It's important to note that onboarding customers on Snowflake is time-consuming. It takes on average north of 200 days for customers to get up to the consumption rate they were contracted for. Database management takes time to set up. But once customers are up and running, they spend a lot more on Snowflake over time.Let's dig into the numbers with the most recent quarter.Snowflake Q1 FY23 Highlights (Earnings Slides)Q1 FY23 Highlights:Product Revenue was $394M (+84% Y/Y, vs. guidance of +80%).Product Gross margin 66% (flat Y/Y).GAAP operating loss margin was -45% (+45pp Y/Y).Non-GAAP operating margin was 0% (+66pp Y/Y), vs. guidance of -2%.Operating cash flow was $185M, a 44% OCF margin (+34pp Y/Y).Free cash flow was $172M, an 41% FCF margin (+35pp Y/Y).Cash and investments on the balance sheet were $3.8B.Long-term debt was $0.2B.Guidance:Q2 FY23:Product Revenue ~$435M-$440M (+72% Y/Y, +11% sequentially).Non-GAAP operating margin -2%.Full Year FY23Product Revenue $1.9B (+66% Y/Y) - unchanged.Non-GAAP operating margin 1% - unchanged.FY23 guidance shows growth normalization and continued margin expansion.Let's put the past year in context:FY22 Guidance (February 2021): Revenue $1B and adj. op. margin -19%.FY22 Actual: Revenue $1.2B (+$0.2B) and adj. op. margin -3% (+16pp).Management has a history of underpromising and overdelivering. That makes the FY23 guidance even more compelling.The company's consumption model can make growth lumpy. While the consumption model is uncapped and can lead to a higher revenue per customer over time, it's also less predictable.Despite this challenge, Snowflake has consistently beaten expectations on the top line (more on that in the valuation section below). It's important to note that customer-friendly improvements lowered the cost of Snowflake, adversely impacting short-term growth (~$97M impact in FY23). In short, customers can do more with the same amount of Snowflake Credits. This type of headwind is a net positive for long-term growth because it increases the odds of customers moving their data to Snowflake. Customer-centric management favoring long-term over short-term outcomes is what I want to see in my portfolio.Should we expect Snowflake to be impacted by a potential recession?CFO Mike Scarpelli explained during the Q1 FY23 call:Last year, we saw certain customers experience much higher than expected consumption -- own businesses were growing extremely fast. Today, some customers face a more challenging operating environment. Specific customers consume less than we anticipated amid shifting economic circumstances, we believe are unique to their businesses, most notably consumer facing cloud companies.Although these customers are still growing, we believe as long as they are impacted by macroeconomic headwinds their consumption will be impacted. Consumption patterns may fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. This variability does not detract from our long-term opportunity. Customer’s overall demand for Snowflake remains unchanged. This is supported by the contractual commitments they are making with us and their longer-term plans for adopting the data cloud across their organization.[...] What I will say is April, we did see weakness in week-over-week growth in our total revenue by customer. But to be honest, the last two weeks of March or May has been very strong. But just given everything in the macro headwinds we're hearing, we're going to be a little bit more cautious going into the full year.If we look at the margin trends, they are excellent. The gross margin and operating margin improved steadily. The company is spending less on Sales & Marketing over time, demonstrating an efficient go-to-market strategy.Snowflake Gross Margin (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)Non-GAAP gross margin improvements are attributed to scalability, product improvement, and cloud agreement pricing.Snowflake Operating Leverage (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)All non-GAAP operating expenses are falling, largely thanks to scalability.Snowflake Cash Flow (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)As a result, cash flow margins have continued to improve.Now let's look at the GAAP margin trends, which factor in stock-based compensation.Data by YChartsGross margin has been improving, at 65% in Q1 FY23.Sales & marketing costs remained high, at 58% of revenue in Q1 FY23.Operating margin is improving steadily, at -45% in Q1 FY23.Stock-based compensation is the main difference between GAAP and non-GAAP margins:In FY22, SBC was $675M (+114% Y/Y) or 55% of revenue in FY22.In Q1 FY23, SBC was $183M (+10% Y/Y) or 44% of revenue (-29pp Y/Y).I expect SBC to represent less in percentage of revenue over time. From a dilution perspective, the impact is relatively small (FY22 SBC was less than 2% of the market cap).We can summarize the recent results as follows:Exceptional revenue growth at +84% Y/Y - showing strength.High gross margin at 65% - showing long-term potential.Falling sales & marketing costs - showing the scalability.Improving adj. operating margin - showing operating leverage.Positive net cash position on the balance sheet and positive cash flow from operations - showing sustainability.What should we expect from Snowflake's margin over time?Management previously shared their long-term operating model by the time they reach $10B in annual revenue. They significantly upgraded the margin targets for FY29:Revenue growth around +30% Y/Y (unchanged).Non-GAAP gross margin around 78% (+3pp).Non-GAAP operating margin around 20% (+10pp).FCF margin is around 25% (+10pp).During the investor presentation Q&A last year, CFO Michael Scarpelli clarified that the margin targets were worst-case scenarios. Since Snowflake is on track to achieve an FCF margin of 16% in FY23, the projection still appears conservative.Snowflake Guidance (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)How Big Is Snowflake's Lead On Competitors?Snowflake's management breaks down the competition into four categories:Large, well-established, public cloud providers,also known as\"hyperscalers,\" with specific features such as AWS Redshift (AMZN), Google BigQuery (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure Synapse Analytics (MSFT). They compete in all of Snowflake's markets.Less-established public and private cloud companies with products competing in some of Snowflake's markets, such as Cloudera, IBM (IBM), Databricks, and Teradata.Other established vendorsof legacy database solutions or big data offerings, including Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP).New or emerging entrants seeking to develop competing technologies.When I invest in a category, my preference generally goes to the best companies. And evidence shows Snowflake is among the very best performers in Data Warehouse. Below is the G2 Grid for Data Warehouse. You can find Snowflake in the top right of the chart as the best performer, alongside AWS.G2 Grid Data Warehouse (G2)Snowflake also appears as a leader in the Forrester Wave for Cloud Data Warehouse (see below). Other leaders in the field are AWS, Google, Microsoft, Oracle, and Teradata.Cloud Data Warehouse (The Forrester Wave)The Gartner Magic Quadrant for Data Management Solutions for Analytics has not been publicly updated for three years. At the time, it showed Snowflake among the leaders as well.Magic Quadrant Data Management (Gartner)So what is the moat? To fend off competition, Snowflake benefits from:Network effects: With artificial intelligence tools, Snowflake is getting smarter and better with every additional customer, a la CrowdStrike (CRWD). More importantly, Snowflake builds custom solutions for industry leaders and their needs (e.g., governance, security, data sharing), opening, in turn, the opportunity for more industry members to join the platform. To illustrate, 18% of customers had at least one data-sharing relationship in FY22, up from 13% in FY21.Switching costs: Since database management is time-consuming to set up correctly, over time, it becomes unlikely a customer would want to waste days, weeks, or months transitioning to another Data Warehouse system. The company's outstanding retention metrics illustrate this advantage. However, Snowflake's pricing will have to remain competitive.Brand: The growing popularity of Snowflake on DB engines combined with its customer satisfaction put it on the right track to building a strong brand.Snowflake provides the data cloud, analytics, and other services in one single provider. In addition, given Snowflake's focus on improving the platform's efficiency to keep customers happy, their competitive advantage is well-positioned to expand over time.Competition is a fact of life for all the best businesses globally. However, I like Snowflake's position and odds of success given its agnostic position with the big cloud providers and its headstart on the rest of the market.What Is The Long-Term Potential for Snowflake?Snowflake is addressing an important, emerging industry.Management estimated the addressable market for Cloud Data Platform to be approximately $90B at the end of January 2021 (up from $81B a year prior). The runway ahead remains gigantic since Snowflake had a run rate of just over $1B in FY22.Snowflake Market Opportunity (Q1 FY23 Earnings Slides)IDC estimates the market for Analytics Data Management and Integration Platforms and Business Intelligence and Analytics Tools had a combined value of $56B at the end of 2020. It will grow to $84B by 2023 (+11% CAGR). The data sharing opportunity has not been defined or quantified, but it would add to this enormous market.The explosion of data to drive business outcomes is a theme you'll find across many positions in the App Economy Portfolio, such as MongoDB (MDB) and Datadog (DDOG).The increasing role of data in the decision process is something I've witnessed firsthand through my gaming career as a Senior Director of Financial Planning & Analysis. Positions like Data Analyst or Data Scientist didn't even exist 20 years ago. Even businesses that used to rely on superficial sales data to evaluate their performance are going much deeper.Let's use the example of the gaming industry. A game publisher used to have only access to the number of units sold to retailers to evaluate the success of a title. Gaming used to be a simple physical retail business with units on shelves, just like any CPG business. Today, the KPIs are vast across user acquisition, monetization, and retention. It's a predominantly digital business migrating to the cloud. It now includes a plethora of data to drive operations, direct-to-consumer promotions, retention, and engagement tactics. Gaming is far from being the only industry shifting from the physical to the digital world with the explosion of data that comes with it. This logic applies to video and music entertainment, payments, shopping, work collaboration, healthcare, life science, banking, networking, etc. Data has become an essential tool to manage and improve CRM and business performance, and this trend is here to stay. Organizations across all industries are increasingly reliant on collecting, analyzing, and mobilizing data.Let's recap the two key trends:Trend 1) Explosion of dataSnowflake management argues that the proliferation of connected devices and applications results in an explosion of digital data. In turn, businesses have new needs that come with it:According to IDC, there will be 175 zettabytes of data by 2025, representing a CAGR of 27% from 33 zettabytes of data in 2018. This data contains valuable insights for organizations, including key business and performance metrics, customer attributes and behavior, and product strengths and capabilities.Trend 2) Cloud migrationOrganizations are shifting from static on-premises IT architectures to a multi-cloud architecture. This migration is accelerating:According to IDC, 49% of data will be stored in public cloud environments by 2025, an increase from approximately 30% today. [...] 90% of Global 1000 Organizations will have a multi-cloud management strategy by 2024.According to Gartner:Public Cloud will grow from 58% of software spending in 2020 to 86% by 2025.Database Management Systems and BI Platforms will more than triple between 2020 and 2025.Cloud migration (Snowflake Investor Presentation)Snowflake's key leverages to drive growth looking forward are simple:More customers.More product adoption from existing customers.New products via platform expansion (governance, programmability, etc.).International expansion.US Cloud computing alone is expected to grow at +18% CAGR, illustrating the runway ahead for the leaders in these categories.Cloud in % of IT Spending (Benedict Evans)Snowflake Valuation: How Much Is Too Much?Snowflake raised $3.4B at a $30B valuation for its IPO in 2020. However, Public investors never traded SNOW at the offering price of $120 per share. Instead, shares popped +112% on their first trading day. Unfortunately, the company left close to $4B on the table.As soon as its first day as a public company, SNOW had a valuation north of $60B. Yet, as I write this line almost two years later, SNOW is down 13% in after-hours, trading at $115, below its pre-listing price. So far, SNOW has not been a great investment for public investors, but it doesn't mean it will stay that way.Data by YChartsSNOW is now trading on the low-end of its valuation spectrum, at about 15 times forward sales (if we factor the after-hours sell-off).Data by YChartsMore context on Snowflake's valuation (after-hours sell-off included):27 times FY22 revenue (past 12 months).15 times FY23 revenue estimates.11 times FY24 revenue estimates.7 times FY25 revenue estimates.As you can see, even assuming the company merely meets Wall Street's expectations moving forward, it will \"grow into\" its valuation multiple pretty quickly. Since going public, the company has a stellar track record, beating expectations by 6% on average over seven quarters.SNOW Revenue Surprise (Seeking Alpha Premium)This type of outperformance can compound over time. To illustrate, Q1 FY23 estimated revenue was $350M when the company went public 18 months ago. Instead, the company just delivered $422M. So in a matter of 18 months, the difference between Wall Street's estimates and reality was more than 20%. So when I say SNOW is trading at 7 times FY25 revenue estimates, it might be even less if the uptrend continues.SNOW Consensus Revision (Seeking Alpha Premium)Snowflake's revenue multiple will compress significantly in the coming years. But that's beside the point. Multiple compression and strong stock performance are not mutually exclusive.Management projected $10B in annual product revenue by FY29 (i.e., Jan-2029). Importantly, this figure is simply a conservative extrapolation of the trend from the existing product offerings. Moreover, management now has a documented history of underpromising and overdelivering, so I wouldn't use this number to model a discounted cash flow analysis.In seven years, with an annual revenue run rate of $10B, Snowflake might generate ~$4B of cash flow at scale while still growing at +30% Y/Y. Assuming dilution is entirely offset by the cash flow generated along the way, what will be Snowflake's market cap by then?For giggles, we can look at what Adobe (ADBE) looked like when it crossed $10B in revenue at the end of 2019 (pre-COVID). The company grew revenue in the low 20s and was valued at ~$170B or about 40 times free cash flow.Data by YChartsSo what to expect from Snowflake if management can deliver on their path to $10B? Given SNOW's ~$32B valuation, it has the potential to more than triple in the next seven years, even by just meeting the $10B by FY29 target and assuming margins are on the low-end of expectations.If management is conservative about its FY29 goal the same way they were about their FY22 goal, the potential returns could be much higher.I want to avoid false precision and be directionally correct when looking at an opportunity. If Snowflake truly is on a path to being the fastest enterprise software company to reach $10B in annual revenue, I believe the returns will come in due time.Is SNOW Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?Snowflake is a stellar business that checks most of my favorite boxes.Founder-led.High insider ownership.A strong track record of innovation.A category leader ahead of the pack.Growing fast, with tremendous unit economics.Recognized as a leading and best-in-class product.In an essential emerging industry expected to boom.Strong cash-flow margins with a robust balance sheet.Amazing backers such as Buffett, Altimeter, Sequoia, and Tiger Global.Given its explosive customer growth and exceptional retention metrics, I believe it's only a matter of time before it grows into its valuation.The company has proven to be capital efficient and has ample opportunity to fund its growth path forward.SNOW has never been cheap since its 2020 IPO. And in the current macro environment, it has a higher risk of multiple compression. So, it should only be considered by investors with a multi-year time horizon.Additionally, if revenue growth slows faster than expected in a challenging environment, the stock could be punished harshly in the short term. My solution to alleviate this risk is simple: start with a small position, and build up from here over several quarters based on the company's execution.Is Snowflake's valuation still too rich for your blood?Do you believe the company has a long runway ahead?Would Snowflake qualify as a high-quality business in your selection process?Let me know in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029594728,"gmtCreate":1652796417264,"gmtModify":1676535163078,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029594728","repostId":"2236121088","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2236121088","pubTimestamp":1652788800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2236121088?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-17 20:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Upstart: Adding To My Position After Last Week's Bloodbath","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236121088","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images I have written a couple articles on Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST)","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1295290334/image_1295290334.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1295290334/image_1295290334.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1295290334/image_1295290334.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1295290334/image_1295290334.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1295290334/image_1295290334.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1295290334/image_1295290334.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1295290334/image_1295290334.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1295290334/image_1295290334.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1295290334/image_1295290334.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>I have written a couple articles on Upstart (<span>NASDAQ:UPST</span>), with both being very bullish on the rapidly growing company. My first article covers the company's AI business model, its founder leadership, and high insider<span> ownership. The </span>second article<span> second article was a couple weeks ago before earnings. I was very bullish on the company and think the long-term future of the company is still very bright, even after mixed earnings and guidance.</span></p> <p>Any time you own a stock that gets slaughtered after earnings like Upstart did last week, it is a frustrating experience. Do I sell now and ask questions later? Do I stay the course? Do I add to my position at these prices? All these questions hit me after the last week with Upstart. I forced myself to bury my emotions and take some time evaluate the situation. I was also curious to see what other contributors had to say about the market’s reaction, as I think there are a lot of valuable insights to be gleaned from different viewpoints on Upstart.</p> <p>The biggest questions I try to answer for myself are these: Is the business broken? Does that kill the long-term bullish thesis? In the case of Upstart, I think the answer is no. Was I wrong to be bullish at $100? In the short term, absolutely. In the long term? I don’t think so. If you look at the actual business, I don’t think reduced guidance for 2022 kills the long-term case for owning shares of Upstart.</p> <p>My typical articles always include an investment thesis, a description of why I’m bullish, bearish, or neutral. This <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is going to be a little different, as I wanted to cover the earnings release and the massive selloff. I will talk about the quarter itself and the guidance that apparently has everyone pessimistic on the long-term future of the business.</p> <h2>Earnings</h2> <p>It seems like Q1 earnings was glossed over to focus on the guidance revision that led to the massive selloff last week. The first thing that I always look at is revenue and the bottom line. Revenue went from $121M to $310M in Q1. This was larger than the expected $300M. Net income also nearly tripled from 2021, which is impressive no matter how you look at it. They also increased bank partners from 42 at the end of 2021 to 57 at the end of Q1, and increased car dealerships from 410 at year end to 525 at the of Q1.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/15/52794319-16525894120971625.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Bank Partnerships <span>(Upstart)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>This is going to be a big piece of the bull case for Upstart. Continued growth in bank and automotive partners will help drive the long-term growth of the business. One of the things that contributors have commented on the expansion in the loan balance on Upstart’s balance sheet. From the end of 2021 to the end of Q1, loans went from $252M to $598M. This is certainly a factor that I will be keeping an eye on in the quarters to come. If that number continues to expand, it will certainly become an issue for a smaller company like Upstart. I would love to see that number go down over the next year, because I think the company should be focused on growing their service revenue instead of expanding the balance sheet with loans receivable.</p> <h2>Guidance</h2> <p>The biggest reason behind the selloff was lowered guidance. It was dropped about 10%, which really isn’t that much when you consider where the company was just a couple years ago. For Q2, the company predicted $295M to $305M in revenue and $1.25B for the full year 2022. Consensus was $335M for Q2 and $1.4B for the full year. While lowered guidance is a tough thing to see for long investors, I think people are missing the forest for the trees. I didn’t buy Upstart to try to sell in 3 to 6 months for a profit, and I added to my position after the recent selloff. With a market cap at $2.8B, I still think the business has impressive long-term upside that could surprise investors.</p> <h2>Valuation</h2> <p>After the selloff, Upstart is basically back to the IPO price from December 2020. I thought the valuation was cheap at $100, and here we are under $40. What I will say is that if Upstart is earning $4 a share in 2024, it won’t be a $40 stock.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" hspace=\"6\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/15/52794319-16525894603638165.png\" vspace=\"6\"/></span><figcaption><p>Price/Earnings <span>(FAST Graphs)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The normal P/E ratio and growth rates are definitely going to compress in the next couple years, but I still think the long-term future of the business is bright. I think there is room for multiple expansion from here, and I think the company will be able to weather the economic uncertainty of the next couple years.</p> <h2>Risks</h2> <p>The biggest things I will be paying attention to with Upstart is the balance sheet and interest rates and the potential chain reaction there. If interest rate hikes lead to a recession, that would certainly have an impact on broader economic activity and Upstart's new volume for cars and other loans.</p> <p>If the balance sheet continues to expand with more loans on their balance sheet, then Upstart could be on the hook for bad loans which would likely increase if we do head into a recession. The best-case scenario is that the company can package and sell off loans to banks and other institutions, but I will be watching to see if the loan receivable line goes up for Upstart. That means more risk to their balance sheet and could lead to significant problems in a downturn.</p> <h2>New Family Portfolio Weights</h2> <p>I also took the opportunity to buy shares in the family portfolio after the recent selloff. They prefer dividend stocks, so I kept the position small, but I think the risk/reward is too appealing to pass up. Below is the new portfolio weighting after getting some new cash to put to work.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/5/15/52794319-16525894893820257.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Portfolio Weights <span>(Author's Calcs)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>I have made a couple trades in the last week, adding to several existing positions, and starting a couple new ones as well. Upstart is one of the new positions, and I would consider adding at current prices if I don’t come up with better ideas before the next cash infusion.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>Upstart is a business that could suffer with rising interest rates and an economic slowdown. That’s not a secret to any investor. However, I think the post-earnings selloff is overdone and investors might want to consider buying the massive dip. A solid Q1 was lost in the shuffle of the reduced guidance, and I still think the long-term bull case is intact. Increased partnerships can help the business grow revenue over the next couple years. Q1 earnings wasn’t ideal, but I don’t think it represents the sky is falling scenario that played out last week. I think the company has a lot of potential and I have been buying and lowering my cost basis. Every investor should weigh the risk/reward for themselves, but I think shares of Upstart will be trading at higher prices in a couple years.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Upstart: Adding To My Position After Last Week's Bloodbath</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUpstart: Adding To My Position After Last Week's Bloodbath\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-17 20:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512361-upstart-q1-earnings-why-adding-stock-after-bloodbath><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images I have written a couple articles on Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), with both being very bullish on the rapidly growing company. My first article covers the company's...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512361-upstart-q1-earnings-why-adding-stock-after-bloodbath\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4166":"消费信贷","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512361-upstart-q1-earnings-why-adding-stock-after-bloodbath","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2236121088","content_text":"Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images I have written a couple articles on Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), with both being very bullish on the rapidly growing company. My first article covers the company's AI business model, its founder leadership, and high insider ownership. The second article second article was a couple weeks ago before earnings. I was very bullish on the company and think the long-term future of the company is still very bright, even after mixed earnings and guidance. Any time you own a stock that gets slaughtered after earnings like Upstart did last week, it is a frustrating experience. Do I sell now and ask questions later? Do I stay the course? Do I add to my position at these prices? All these questions hit me after the last week with Upstart. I forced myself to bury my emotions and take some time evaluate the situation. I was also curious to see what other contributors had to say about the market’s reaction, as I think there are a lot of valuable insights to be gleaned from different viewpoints on Upstart. The biggest questions I try to answer for myself are these: Is the business broken? Does that kill the long-term bullish thesis? In the case of Upstart, I think the answer is no. Was I wrong to be bullish at $100? In the short term, absolutely. In the long term? I don’t think so. If you look at the actual business, I don’t think reduced guidance for 2022 kills the long-term case for owning shares of Upstart. My typical articles always include an investment thesis, a description of why I’m bullish, bearish, or neutral. This one is going to be a little different, as I wanted to cover the earnings release and the massive selloff. I will talk about the quarter itself and the guidance that apparently has everyone pessimistic on the long-term future of the business. Earnings It seems like Q1 earnings was glossed over to focus on the guidance revision that led to the massive selloff last week. The first thing that I always look at is revenue and the bottom line. Revenue went from $121M to $310M in Q1. This was larger than the expected $300M. Net income also nearly tripled from 2021, which is impressive no matter how you look at it. They also increased bank partners from 42 at the end of 2021 to 57 at the end of Q1, and increased car dealerships from 410 at year end to 525 at the of Q1. Bank Partnerships (Upstart) This is going to be a big piece of the bull case for Upstart. Continued growth in bank and automotive partners will help drive the long-term growth of the business. One of the things that contributors have commented on the expansion in the loan balance on Upstart’s balance sheet. From the end of 2021 to the end of Q1, loans went from $252M to $598M. This is certainly a factor that I will be keeping an eye on in the quarters to come. If that number continues to expand, it will certainly become an issue for a smaller company like Upstart. I would love to see that number go down over the next year, because I think the company should be focused on growing their service revenue instead of expanding the balance sheet with loans receivable. Guidance The biggest reason behind the selloff was lowered guidance. It was dropped about 10%, which really isn’t that much when you consider where the company was just a couple years ago. For Q2, the company predicted $295M to $305M in revenue and $1.25B for the full year 2022. Consensus was $335M for Q2 and $1.4B for the full year. While lowered guidance is a tough thing to see for long investors, I think people are missing the forest for the trees. I didn’t buy Upstart to try to sell in 3 to 6 months for a profit, and I added to my position after the recent selloff. With a market cap at $2.8B, I still think the business has impressive long-term upside that could surprise investors. Valuation After the selloff, Upstart is basically back to the IPO price from December 2020. I thought the valuation was cheap at $100, and here we are under $40. What I will say is that if Upstart is earning $4 a share in 2024, it won’t be a $40 stock. Price/Earnings (FAST Graphs) The normal P/E ratio and growth rates are definitely going to compress in the next couple years, but I still think the long-term future of the business is bright. I think there is room for multiple expansion from here, and I think the company will be able to weather the economic uncertainty of the next couple years. Risks The biggest things I will be paying attention to with Upstart is the balance sheet and interest rates and the potential chain reaction there. If interest rate hikes lead to a recession, that would certainly have an impact on broader economic activity and Upstart's new volume for cars and other loans. If the balance sheet continues to expand with more loans on their balance sheet, then Upstart could be on the hook for bad loans which would likely increase if we do head into a recession. The best-case scenario is that the company can package and sell off loans to banks and other institutions, but I will be watching to see if the loan receivable line goes up for Upstart. That means more risk to their balance sheet and could lead to significant problems in a downturn. New Family Portfolio Weights I also took the opportunity to buy shares in the family portfolio after the recent selloff. They prefer dividend stocks, so I kept the position small, but I think the risk/reward is too appealing to pass up. Below is the new portfolio weighting after getting some new cash to put to work. Portfolio Weights (Author's Calcs) I have made a couple trades in the last week, adding to several existing positions, and starting a couple new ones as well. Upstart is one of the new positions, and I would consider adding at current prices if I don’t come up with better ideas before the next cash infusion. Conclusion Upstart is a business that could suffer with rising interest rates and an economic slowdown. That’s not a secret to any investor. However, I think the post-earnings selloff is overdone and investors might want to consider buying the massive dip. A solid Q1 was lost in the shuffle of the reduced guidance, and I still think the long-term bull case is intact. Increased partnerships can help the business grow revenue over the next couple years. Q1 earnings wasn’t ideal, but I don’t think it represents the sky is falling scenario that played out last week. I think the company has a lot of potential and I have been buying and lowering my cost basis. Every investor should weigh the risk/reward for themselves, but I think shares of Upstart will be trading at higher prices in a couple years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032376011,"gmtCreate":1647301458951,"gmtModify":1676534213142,"author":{"id":"4104481054115720","authorId":"4104481054115720","name":"1588d1c0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪","listText":"💪","text":"💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032376011","repostId":"2219720135","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}