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2022-05-17

$Apple(AAPL)$Apple

2022-05-17

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2022-05-17

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2022-05-17

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2022-05-17

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2022-05-15

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2022-05-15

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2022-05-15

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2022-05-15

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2022-05-15

Informative

Why Are Stocks on the Verge of a Bear Market? Stagflation, the Fed and What Investors Need to Know

2022-05-15

Good knowledge learning

Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?

2022-05-15

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Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?

2022-05-15

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Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?

2022-05-15

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7 Profitable Places to Hide Your Money During a Bear Market

2022-05-15

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How a Bitcoin Market "in Extreme Fear" Compares with the Past, and What to Expect Next

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Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1652575892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2235891744?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 08:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Are Stocks on the Verge of a Bear Market? Stagflation, the Fed and What Investors Need to Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235891744","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"It will take more than Friday's big  bounce to put to rest the fear of a bear market in stocks as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's ability to get a grip on inflation without sinking the economy","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It will take more than Friday&#39;s big  bounce to put to rest the fear of a bear market in stocks as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve&#39;s ability to get a grip on inflation without sinking the economy stokes fears of stagflation -- a pernicious combination of slow economic growth and persistent inflation.</p><p>Stagflation is &#34;an awful environment&#34; for investors, usually resulting in stocks and bonds losing value simultaneously and playing havoc with traditional portfolios divided 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, said Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management.</p><p>That&#39;s already been the case in 2022. Bond markets have lost ground as Treasury yields, which move opposite to prices, soared in reaction to inflation running at the highest in more than forty years along with expectations for aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed. Since the S&amp;P 500 index&#39;s record close on Jan. 3 this year stocks have been on a slide that&#39;s left the large-capitalization benchmark on the verge of formally entering bear market territory.</p><p>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> Core U.S. Aggregate Bond <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGG\">$(AGG)$</a> is down more than 10% year to date through Friday. It tracks the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes Treasurys, corporate bonds, munis, mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. The S&amp;P 500  is down 15.6% over the same stretch.</p><p>The situation leaves &#34;practically nowhere to hide,&#34; wrote analysts at Montreal-based PGM Global, in a note this past week.</p><p>&#34;Not only are long-term Treasuries and Investment Grade credit moving nearly <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-for-one, but selloffs in long-term Treasuries are also coinciding more frequently with down days in the S&amp;P 500,&#34; they said.</p><p>Investors looking for solace were disappointed on Wednesday. The eagerly awaited U.S. April consumer price index showed the annual pace of inflation slowed to 8.3% from a more than four decade high of 8.5% in March, but economists had been looking for a more pronounced slowing, and the core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, showed an unexpected monthly uptick.</p><p>That&#39;s underlined stagflation fears.</p><p>Davis is also portfolio manager of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge Exchange-Traded Fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVOL\">$(IVOL)$</a>, with roughly $1.65 billion in assets, which aims to serve as a hedge against rising fixed-income volatility. The fund holds inflation-protected securities and has exposure to the differential between short- and long-term interest rates, she said.</p><p>The rates market at present is &#34;very complacent,&#34; she said, in a phone interview, signaling expectations that Fed interest rate hikes are &#34;going to create a disinflationary environment,&#34; when tightening is unlikely to do anything to resolve the supply-side problems that are plaguing the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>Meanwhile, analysts and traders were debating whether the stock market&#39;s Friday bounce heralded the start of a bottoming process or was merely a bounce from oversold conditions. Skepticism of a bottom ran high.</p><p>&#34;Following a week of heavy selling, but with inflationary pressures easing just at the margin, and the Fed still seemingly wedded to 50 basis point hikes for each of the next two [rate-setting] meetings, the market was poised for the kind of strong rally endemic to bear market rallies,&#34; said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.</p><p>Mark Hulbert:The beginning of the end of the stock market&#39;s correction could be near</p><p>&#34;Friday&#39;s bounce managed to cut this week&#39;s losses nearly in half, but despite the massive upside volume, overall volume was sub-par and more will be needed to think even minor lows are at hand,&#34; said Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat.</p><p>It was quite a bounce. The Nasdaq Composite , which slipped into a bear market earlier this year and fell to a nearly 2 1/2-year low in the past week, jumped 3.8% Friday for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 4, 2020. That trimmed its weekly fall to a still hefty 2.8%.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 bounced 2.4%, nearly halving its weekly decline. That left the large-cap U.S. benchmark down  down 16.1% from its record close in early January, after ending Thursday just shy of the 20% pullback that would meet the technical definition of a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  rose 466.36, or 1.7%, leaving it with a weekly decline of 2.1%.</p><p>And all three major indexes are sporting long, weekly losing streaks, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq each down for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since 2011 and 2012, respectively, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow booked its seventh consecutive losing week -- its longest streak since 2001.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has yet to formally enter a bear market, but analysts see no shortage of ursine behavior.</p><p>As Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, observed on Wednesday, correlations between stocks were running in the 90th to 100th decile, meaning lockstep performance that suggested equities were largely trading in unison -- &#34;one of the defining characteristics of a bear market.&#34;</p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 has moved &#34;uncomfortably close&#34; to a bear market, it&#39;s important to keep in mind that big stock-market pullbacks are normal and occur with frequency, analysts said. Barron&#39;s noted that the stock market has seen 10 bear-market pullbacks since 1950, and numerous other corrections and other significant pullbacks.</p><p>But the speed and scope of the recent rally may understandably be leaving investors rattled, particularly those who haven&#39;t experienced a volatile downturn, said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, in a phone interview.</p><p>The rally had seen &#34;every single sector of the market going up,&#34; he noted. &#34;That&#39;s not a normal market&#34; and now the worm has turned as monetary and fiscal policy tightens up in reaction to hot inflation.</p><p>The appropriate response, he said, is to follow the same tried-and-true but &#34;boring&#34; advice usually offered during volatile markets: stay diversified, hold many asset classes and don&#39;t panic or make wholesale changes to portfolios.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s not fun right now,&#34; he said, but &#34;this is how real markets work.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Are Stocks on the Verge of a Bear Market? Stagflation, the Fed and What Investors Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Are Stocks on the Verge of a Bear Market? Stagflation, the Fed and What Investors Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-15 08:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>It will take more than Friday&#39;s big  bounce to put to rest the fear of a bear market in stocks as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve&#39;s ability to get a grip on inflation without sinking the economy stokes fears of stagflation -- a pernicious combination of slow economic growth and persistent inflation.</p><p>Stagflation is &#34;an awful environment&#34; for investors, usually resulting in stocks and bonds losing value simultaneously and playing havoc with traditional portfolios divided 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, said Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management.</p><p>That&#39;s already been the case in 2022. Bond markets have lost ground as Treasury yields, which move opposite to prices, soared in reaction to inflation running at the highest in more than forty years along with expectations for aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed. Since the S&amp;P 500 index&#39;s record close on Jan. 3 this year stocks have been on a slide that&#39;s left the large-capitalization benchmark on the verge of formally entering bear market territory.</p><p>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> Core U.S. Aggregate Bond <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGG\">$(AGG)$</a> is down more than 10% year to date through Friday. It tracks the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes Treasurys, corporate bonds, munis, mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. The S&amp;P 500  is down 15.6% over the same stretch.</p><p>The situation leaves &#34;practically nowhere to hide,&#34; wrote analysts at Montreal-based PGM Global, in a note this past week.</p><p>&#34;Not only are long-term Treasuries and Investment Grade credit moving nearly <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-for-one, but selloffs in long-term Treasuries are also coinciding more frequently with down days in the S&amp;P 500,&#34; they said.</p><p>Investors looking for solace were disappointed on Wednesday. The eagerly awaited U.S. April consumer price index showed the annual pace of inflation slowed to 8.3% from a more than four decade high of 8.5% in March, but economists had been looking for a more pronounced slowing, and the core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, showed an unexpected monthly uptick.</p><p>That&#39;s underlined stagflation fears.</p><p>Davis is also portfolio manager of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge Exchange-Traded Fund <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVOL\">$(IVOL)$</a>, with roughly $1.65 billion in assets, which aims to serve as a hedge against rising fixed-income volatility. The fund holds inflation-protected securities and has exposure to the differential between short- and long-term interest rates, she said.</p><p>The rates market at present is &#34;very complacent,&#34; she said, in a phone interview, signaling expectations that Fed interest rate hikes are &#34;going to create a disinflationary environment,&#34; when tightening is unlikely to do anything to resolve the supply-side problems that are plaguing the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p>Meanwhile, analysts and traders were debating whether the stock market&#39;s Friday bounce heralded the start of a bottoming process or was merely a bounce from oversold conditions. Skepticism of a bottom ran high.</p><p>&#34;Following a week of heavy selling, but with inflationary pressures easing just at the margin, and the Fed still seemingly wedded to 50 basis point hikes for each of the next two [rate-setting] meetings, the market was poised for the kind of strong rally endemic to bear market rallies,&#34; said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.</p><p>Mark Hulbert:The beginning of the end of the stock market&#39;s correction could be near</p><p>&#34;Friday&#39;s bounce managed to cut this week&#39;s losses nearly in half, but despite the massive upside volume, overall volume was sub-par and more will be needed to think even minor lows are at hand,&#34; said Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat.</p><p>It was quite a bounce. The Nasdaq Composite , which slipped into a bear market earlier this year and fell to a nearly 2 1/2-year low in the past week, jumped 3.8% Friday for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 4, 2020. That trimmed its weekly fall to a still hefty 2.8%.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 bounced 2.4%, nearly halving its weekly decline. That left the large-cap U.S. benchmark down  down 16.1% from its record close in early January, after ending Thursday just shy of the 20% pullback that would meet the technical definition of a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  rose 466.36, or 1.7%, leaving it with a weekly decline of 2.1%.</p><p>And all three major indexes are sporting long, weekly losing streaks, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq each down for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since 2011 and 2012, respectively, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow booked its seventh consecutive losing week -- its longest streak since 2001.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has yet to formally enter a bear market, but analysts see no shortage of ursine behavior.</p><p>As Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, observed on Wednesday, correlations between stocks were running in the 90th to 100th decile, meaning lockstep performance that suggested equities were largely trading in unison -- &#34;one of the defining characteristics of a bear market.&#34;</p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 has moved &#34;uncomfortably close&#34; to a bear market, it&#39;s important to keep in mind that big stock-market pullbacks are normal and occur with frequency, analysts said. Barron&#39;s noted that the stock market has seen 10 bear-market pullbacks since 1950, and numerous other corrections and other significant pullbacks.</p><p>But the speed and scope of the recent rally may understandably be leaving investors rattled, particularly those who haven&#39;t experienced a volatile downturn, said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, in a phone interview.</p><p>The rally had seen &#34;every single sector of the market going up,&#34; he noted. &#34;That&#39;s not a normal market&#34; and now the worm has turned as monetary and fiscal policy tightens up in reaction to hot inflation.</p><p>The appropriate response, he said, is to follow the same tried-and-true but &#34;boring&#34; advice usually offered during volatile markets: stay diversified, hold many asset classes and don&#39;t panic or make wholesale changes to portfolios.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s not fun right now,&#34; he said, but &#34;this is how real markets work.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","IVOL":"Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2235891744","content_text":"It will take more than Friday's big  bounce to put to rest the fear of a bear market in stocks as uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's ability to get a grip on inflation without sinking the economy stokes fears of stagflation -- a pernicious combination of slow economic growth and persistent inflation.Stagflation is \"an awful environment\" for investors, usually resulting in stocks and bonds losing value simultaneously and playing havoc with traditional portfolios divided 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, said Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management.That's already been the case in 2022. Bond markets have lost ground as Treasury yields, which move opposite to prices, soared in reaction to inflation running at the highest in more than forty years along with expectations for aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed. Since the S&P 500 index's record close on Jan. 3 this year stocks have been on a slide that's left the large-capitalization benchmark on the verge of formally entering bear market territory.The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF $(AGG)$ is down more than 10% year to date through Friday. It tracks the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which includes Treasurys, corporate bonds, munis, mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. The S&P 500  is down 15.6% over the same stretch.The situation leaves \"practically nowhere to hide,\" wrote analysts at Montreal-based PGM Global, in a note this past week.\"Not only are long-term Treasuries and Investment Grade credit moving nearly one-for-one, but selloffs in long-term Treasuries are also coinciding more frequently with down days in the S&P 500,\" they said.Investors looking for solace were disappointed on Wednesday. The eagerly awaited U.S. April consumer price index showed the annual pace of inflation slowed to 8.3% from a more than four decade high of 8.5% in March, but economists had been looking for a more pronounced slowing, and the core reading, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, showed an unexpected monthly uptick.That's underlined stagflation fears.Davis is also portfolio manager of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge Exchange-Traded Fund $(IVOL)$, with roughly $1.65 billion in assets, which aims to serve as a hedge against rising fixed-income volatility. The fund holds inflation-protected securities and has exposure to the differential between short- and long-term interest rates, she said.The rates market at present is \"very complacent,\" she said, in a phone interview, signaling expectations that Fed interest rate hikes are \"going to create a disinflationary environment,\" when tightening is unlikely to do anything to resolve the supply-side problems that are plaguing the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.Meanwhile, analysts and traders were debating whether the stock market's Friday bounce heralded the start of a bottoming process or was merely a bounce from oversold conditions. Skepticism of a bottom ran high.\"Following a week of heavy selling, but with inflationary pressures easing just at the margin, and the Fed still seemingly wedded to 50 basis point hikes for each of the next two [rate-setting] meetings, the market was poised for the kind of strong rally endemic to bear market rallies,\" said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.Mark Hulbert:The beginning of the end of the stock market's correction could be near\"Friday's bounce managed to cut this week's losses nearly in half, but despite the massive upside volume, overall volume was sub-par and more will be needed to think even minor lows are at hand,\" said Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat.It was quite a bounce. The Nasdaq Composite , which slipped into a bear market earlier this year and fell to a nearly 2 1/2-year low in the past week, jumped 3.8% Friday for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 4, 2020. That trimmed its weekly fall to a still hefty 2.8%.The S&P 500 bounced 2.4%, nearly halving its weekly decline. That left the large-cap U.S. benchmark down  down 16.1% from its record close in early January, after ending Thursday just shy of the 20% pullback that would meet the technical definition of a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  rose 466.36, or 1.7%, leaving it with a weekly decline of 2.1%.And all three major indexes are sporting long, weekly losing streaks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each down for six straight weeks, the longest stretch since 2011 and 2012, respectively, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow booked its seventh consecutive losing week -- its longest streak since 2001.The S&P 500 has yet to formally enter a bear market, but analysts see no shortage of ursine behavior.As Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, observed on Wednesday, correlations between stocks were running in the 90th to 100th decile, meaning lockstep performance that suggested equities were largely trading in unison -- \"one of the defining characteristics of a bear market.\"While the S&P 500 has moved \"uncomfortably close\" to a bear market, it's important to keep in mind that big stock-market pullbacks are normal and occur with frequency, analysts said. Barron's noted that the stock market has seen 10 bear-market pullbacks since 1950, and numerous other corrections and other significant pullbacks.But the speed and scope of the recent rally may understandably be leaving investors rattled, particularly those who haven't experienced a volatile downturn, said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, in a phone interview.The rally had seen \"every single sector of the market going up,\" he noted. \"That's not a normal market\" and now the worm has turned as monetary and fiscal policy tightens up in reaction to hot inflation.The appropriate response, he said, is to follow the same tried-and-true but \"boring\" advice usually offered during volatile markets: stay diversified, hold many asset classes and don't panic or make wholesale changes to portfolios.\"It's not fun right now,\" he said, but \"this is how real markets work.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020114982,"gmtCreate":1652586684746,"gmtModify":1676535125444,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good knowledge learning","listText":"Good knowledge learning","text":"Good knowledge learning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020114982","repostId":"2235487417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235487417","pubTimestamp":1652578909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2235487417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235487417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recessi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bc5d75faa18c73540fd4de9e54162dd\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.</p><p><b>The Fed</b><b> Gets Real About Inflation</b></p><p>For the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Recession Fears On The Rise</b></p><p>Recession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.</p><p>But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.</p><p>With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe75a068a923482f18ea951209f1218e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p>In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.</p><p><b>Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is Correct</b></p><p>We’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3622db42e9c19dca701a97e6c37b9d7c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p><b>Bottom Line: Charting The Course From Here</b></p><p>Given the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-15 09:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4139":"生物科技","VIRI":"Virios Therapeutics, LLC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2235487417","content_text":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.Recession Fears On The RiseRecession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is CorrectWe’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.Bottom Line: Charting The Course From HereGiven the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020115432,"gmtCreate":1652586650426,"gmtModify":1676535125434,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good knowledge","listText":"Good knowledge","text":"Good knowledge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020115432","repostId":"2235487417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235487417","pubTimestamp":1652578909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2235487417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235487417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recessi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bc5d75faa18c73540fd4de9e54162dd\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.</p><p><b>The Fed</b><b> Gets Real About Inflation</b></p><p>For the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Recession Fears On The Rise</b></p><p>Recession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.</p><p>But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.</p><p>With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe75a068a923482f18ea951209f1218e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p>In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.</p><p><b>Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is Correct</b></p><p>We’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3622db42e9c19dca701a97e6c37b9d7c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p><b>Bottom Line: Charting The Course From Here</b></p><p>Given the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-15 09:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4139":"生物科技","VIRI":"Virios Therapeutics, LLC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2235487417","content_text":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.Recession Fears On The RiseRecession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is CorrectWe’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.Bottom Line: Charting The Course From HereGiven the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020115209,"gmtCreate":1652586624901,"gmtModify":1676535125452,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good knowledge","listText":"Good knowledge","text":"Good knowledge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020115209","repostId":"2235487417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235487417","pubTimestamp":1652578909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2235487417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235487417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recessi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bc5d75faa18c73540fd4de9e54162dd\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.</p><p><b>The Fed</b><b> Gets Real About Inflation</b></p><p>For the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Recession Fears On The Rise</b></p><p>Recession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.</p><p>But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.</p><p>With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe75a068a923482f18ea951209f1218e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p>In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.</p><p><b>Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is Correct</b></p><p>We’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3622db42e9c19dca701a97e6c37b9d7c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p><b>Bottom Line: Charting The Course From Here</b></p><p>Given the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-15 09:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4139":"生物科技","VIRI":"Virios Therapeutics, LLC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2235487417","content_text":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.Recession Fears On The RiseRecession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is CorrectWe’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.Bottom Line: Charting The Course From HereGiven the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020116935,"gmtCreate":1652586349827,"gmtModify":1676535125363,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020116935","repostId":"1154861602","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154861602","pubTimestamp":1652575415,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154861602?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 08:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Profitable Places to Hide Your Money During a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154861602","media":"investorplace","summary":"Here are seven asset classes, including stocks in different industries, that could offer shelter dur","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Here are seven asset classes, including stocks in different industries, that could offer shelter during a bear market</li><li><b>Blue chip</b> companies are those that investors have typically known for decades.</li><li>Worldwide spending on <b>healthcare</b> should continue to grow during the decade.</li><li>Prices of<b>commodities</b>are expected to remain at historically high levels by the end of 2024.</li><li><i>Wall Street</i> offer several options to invest in the growth of <b>real estate</b>.</li><li><b>Utility stocks</b> boastmodest but steady growth and above-average dividend yields.</li><li><b>Cryptocurrency</b> investors should diversify their investments across different digital assets.</li><li><b>Art and NFT</b> prices can act independently of moves in equities.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d997f0390f5466e9cb277350eea631de\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Ruslan Ivantsov / Shutterstock.com</p><p>It looks like<i>Wall</i><i>Street</i>is bracing for a bear market. Macroeconomic headwinds continue to build, including rampant inflation, slowing economic growth, geopolitical turmoil, and Covid-19 lockdowns in Asia.</p><p>We now have further uncertaintysurroundingthe stockmarket following the most recent interest rate hike. Animminent bear market is potentially on the horizon. As a result, investors are searching for alternative investment paths for diversification.</p><p>Growth names that were the darlings on<i>Wall Street</i>during the pandemic have not beenimmune to these challenges so far in the year. Even large-capitalization (cap) shares have come under pressure since January.</p><p>Year-to-date (YTD), the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>indexhas so far dropped over 13.5% year-to-date (YTD), while the tech-heavy <b>Nasdaq 100</b>has declined more than21.5% during the same period.</p><p>In the past century, we have had over 25bear marketson the Street. Most have lasted an average of less than one year. While it may be tempting to sell stocks in the portfolio to minimize losses, panic selling in a bear market often leads toloss of potential profits and even investment capital.</p><p>Instead, investors need to develop a calmer and at times opportunistic perspective toward bear markets. Let’s remember that some of the strongest days in the stock market usually follow right after some of the most devastating days.</p><p>A bear market can be easier to endure when you’re well-diversified and inthe marketfor the long term.</p><p>With that information, here are seven strategic sectors and asset classes to hide your money in a bear market.</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Blue Chip Stocks</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Healthcare Stocks</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Commodities Stocks</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Real Estate Stocks</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Utility Stocks</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Cryptocurrency</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Arts and NFTs</b></td></tr></tbody></table><h2><b>Bear Market: Blue Chip Stocks</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ee025174bc9711cf7cf054fdcfbe90d\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></h2><p>“Blue chip stocks” are some of the precious gems of the stock market. As most<i>InvestorPlace.com</i>readers know, the term comes from poker chips where the blue chips are the most valuable ones of a three color chip set.</p><p>Blue chip companies are those that you have possibly known for decades. Market caps are typically in the order of hundreds of billions of dollars. The company history goes many decades or even a hundred years. Most of the 30 stocks in the <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)</b> index belong to a blue chip company.</p><p>If you like dividends, then blue chips should be on your radar screen. They typically grow dividends regularly over decades.</p><p>Daily swings are less of an issue in the case of blue chips. Especially due to stable dividends, most investors are reluctant to sell them when the market declines.</p><p>Since most blue chips have healthy balance sheets and strong leadership, they tend to come out of hard economic times even stronger. In fact, many either buy-out or drive-out their weaker competitors.</p><p>But, when we have a bear market, shares of blue chips also decline. For instance, the DJIA has lost around 10% so far in 2022. Yet, this percentage is less than those in the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.</p><p>Yet this recent drop in price has made many blue chips undervalued, creating a buying opportunity. If readers are not sure as to which specific blue chip stock to buy, they can also consider blue chip exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold a basket of stocks.</p><p>The following names of stocks and ETFs can be considered when investing in blue chips:</p><ul><li><b>International Business Machines</b>(NYSE:<b><u>IBM</u></b>)</li><li><b>Pfizer</b>(NYSE:<b><u>PFE</u></b>)</li><li><b>Walmart</b>(NYSE:<b><u>WMT</u></b>)</li><li><b>T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TCHP</u></b>)</li><li><b>Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF</b>(NYSE:<b><u>DJD</u></b>)</li></ul><h2><b>Healthcare Stocks</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24071cbf367a83a8c27823f7dcbde884\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></h2><p>With growing concern about the possibility of a coming recession, many investors are turning to defensive healthcare stocks. The healthcare market tends to remain fairlyresistantto market downtowns. After all, as the past two years have shown, anyone can get sick or become injured at any time.</p><p>Globally, the healthcare industry continues to grow, spurred by an aging population. We are witnessing continuous development of new medicines and treatment protocols. Worldwide spending on medicine is expected to grow to an average of over10%of global GDP by the year 2030.</p><p>At the same time, Covid-19 vaccines are likely to soon find an entire new category of patients: children under 5. TheWashington Postrecently reported that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is currently considering an authorization request from<b>Moderna</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>MRNA</u></b>) for use of its vaccine for young children. Pfizer is also expected to make a similar request soon.</p><p>Healthcare stocks or ETFs could thus provide a potential safe haven for wary investors. Here are a few picks:</p><ul><li><b>Abbvie</b>(NYSE:<b><u>ABBV</u></b>)</li><li><b>Bio-Rad Laboratories</b>(NYSE:<b><u>BIO</u></b>)</li><li><b>Merck</b>(NYSE:<b><u>MRK</u></b>)</li><li><b>Novo Nordisk</b>(NYSE:<b><u>NVO</u></b>)</li><li><b>Thermo Fisher Scientific</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TMO</u></b>)</li><li><b>iShares Global Healthcare ETF</b>(NYSEARCA:<b><u>IXJ</u></b>)</li><li><b>Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund</b>(NYSEARCA:<b><u>XLV</u></b>)</li></ul><h2><b>Bear Market: Commodities</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bddccd89eea651feaf3fc435d316654\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></h2><p>Analysts are increasingly convinced that we are at the start of a long-term structural bull market in commodities. The World Bank’s <i>Commodity Markets Outlook</i>report suggests that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the discourse on commodities.</p><p>Changing global patterns of production, trade, and consumption could keep commodity prices at historically elevated levels by the end of 2024.Moreover, such high commodity prices shouldadd to theinflationary pressures worldwide.</p><p>Energy prices are of particular interest to investors. Brent crude is currently trading ataround$100 per barrel. And theDow Jones Oil &amp; Gas Index has soaredmore than45% year-to-date (YTD).</p><p>Moreover, food commodities and fertilizers, which rely on natural gas as a production input, have also seen the largest price increases since 2008. For example, wheat prices are projected to increase by over 40%, reaching an all-time high in 2022.</p><p>Another group that gets attention as a potential hedge is precious metals. Gold and silver are the traditional metals of choice. Yet, copper, platinum, palladium, nickel, and zinc are also sought by investors in times of uncertainty in the markets.</p><p>Commodities not only offer an effective hedge against inflation, but they also help diversifyinvestors’portfolios due to their low correlation with stocks. Gold, for example, tends to beinversely correlatedto both stock market performance and the value of the greenback.</p><p>Silver has often provided a good investment during periods of high inflation. Its value isoften tiedto its utility in certain applications in technology as well as heavy industry.</p><p>The price ofgoldis up 2.1% over the past year, while the price ofsilveris down 18.2%. Meanwhile,pricesof platinum and palladium are also down year-over-year.</p><p>Investors can either buy individual stocks or invest in ETFs for commodities like energy, agriculture, and metals.</p><p>The following names deserve further due diligence:</p><ul><li><b>Archer Daniels Midland</b> (NYSE:<b>ADM</b>)</li><li><b>Barrick Gold</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GOLD</u></b>)</li><li><b>Franco-Nevada</b>(NYSE:<b><u>FNV</u></b>)</li><li><b>Newmont</b>(NYSE:<b><u>NEM</u></b>)</li><li><b>Nucor</b>(NYSE:<b>NUE</b>)</li><li><b>Rio Tinto</b> (NYSE:<b>RIO</b>)</li><li><b>BHP</b> (NYSE:<b>BHP</b>)</li><li><b>Freeport McMoRan</b> (NYSE:<b>FCX</b>)</li><li><b>SPDR S&amp;P Metals and Mining</b> (NYSEARCA:<b>XME</b>)</li><li><b>Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund</b>(NYSEARCA:<b>DBC</b>)</li><li><b>iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF</b>(NASDAQ:<b>COMT</b>)</li></ul><h2><b>Real Estate Stocks</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40d6b0f5de2972f4461ff4ad61b490fd\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></h2><p>Investing in real estate is another option to protect your savings against inflation or volatile markets. It also provides consistent income over a long period.</p><p>Participating in real estate investment comes in various ways. You can always buy your own private real estate, and possibly at a lower price during an economic slowdown. Of course, you’d need to have the necessary amount of money ready for the transaction. Or you could go to<i>Wall Street</i>to participate in the growth of real estate shares and for less capital.</p><p>Stock markets offer several options to invest in real estate. These can be shares of builders and developers or Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The latter are companies that own, buy, sell or manage real estate. REITs usually hold a diversified or specialized portfolio. In the U.S., by law, they have to distribute about90%of their income as dividends to qualify as a REIT.</p><p>Retail investors can go for the shares of either individual developers or REITs. Or they can also explore ETFs that are focused on real estate.</p><p>The following stocks and ETFs can be considered when investing in real estate:</p><ul><li><b>Avalonbay Communities</b>(NYSE:<b><u>AVB</u></b>)</li><li><b>Lennar</b>(NYSE:<b><u>LEN</u></b>)</li><li><b>VICI Properties</b>(NYSE:<b><u>VICI</u></b>)</li><li><b>Welltower</b>(NYSE:<b><u>WELL</u></b>)</li><li><b>Schwab US REIT ETF</b>(NYSEARCA:<b><u>SCHH</u></b>)</li><li><b>Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares</b>(NYSEARCA:<b><u>VNQ</u></b>)</li></ul><h2><b>Bear Market: Utility Stocks</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fddf363cbccadd8f53d68acccf09f256\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></h2><p>Utilities are often regarded as the defensive and less volatile portion of an investment portfolio.They include electricity, natural gas, clean water, and sewage services. Understandable, businesses and households rely on them regardless of economic cycles.</p><p>Even during a recession, consumers will, for the most part, pay their bills for power and water.As most utilities are highly regulated, effectively preventing rivals from entering the market, utility stocks are usually associated with low risk andstableinvestments.</p><p>The outlook for utilities has significantly improved over the past few years. President Biden has made the renewable energy transition a key focus of his administration, setting the target for a carbon-free power industry by 2035.</p><p>According to a recentreport from the International Energy Association (IEA), renewables are expected to account for almost 95% of the increase in global power capacity through 2026. As a result, we are likely to see hundreds of billions of dollars of investment flow to the utility space to achieve global decarbonization goals.</p><p>Earlier in March, the Dow Jones Utility Average briefly crossed the 1,000 mark for the first time in itsnearly100-year history. It’s difficult to top utility stocks for modest but steady growth and above-average dividend yields.</p><p>Against this backdrop, investors could keep the following utility stocks under their radar:</p><ul><li><b>Enbridge</b>(NYSE:<b>ENB</b>)</li><li><b>Dominion Energy</b> (NYSE:<b>D</b>)</li><li><b>Duke Energy</b> (NYSE:<b>DUK</b>)</li><li><b>NextEra Energy</b> (NYSE:<b>NEE</b>)</li><li><b>Fidelity® MSCI Utilities Index ETF</b> (NYSEARCA:<b>FUTY</b>)</li><li><b>Utilities Select Sector SPDR® Fund</b> (NYSEARCA:<b>XLU</b>)</li><li><b>Vanguard Utilities ETF</b>(NYSEARCA:<b>VPU</b>)</li></ul><h2><b>Cryptocurrency</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a2a56741612c05ae17b69a8ce642c\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></h2><p>2022 has been a tough year for the cryptocurrency market. So far in the year,<b>Bitcoin</b>(BTC-USD) and<b>Ethereum</b>(ETH-USD) have declined almost 28% and 32%, respectively. Similarly, theGlobal X Blockchain ETF(NASDAQ:<b>BKCH</b>) has lost over half its value YTD.</p><p>Analysts agree that many altcoins will not make it in the long run. Furthermore, someindividual cryptoswill likely experience even larger declinesin a prolonged bear market.</p><p>However,if investor portfolios are diversified,they will be able to stay in the market, weather the storm, and capitalize onprofit opportunities. In a bear market, crypto investors should diversify their investments across large-cap market digital asset leaders, fast-growing new cryptos, non-fungible token (NFT) cryptos, decentralized finance (DeFi) coins, and stablecoins.</p><p>Smart investors can potentially endure bear markets through dollar cost averaging, which involves making smallperiodicpurchases without committing to a single large purchase. Such an approach could help smooth out price volatility. As a result, investors can build a portfolio according to a time-based average price.</p><p>Well-established cryptos have weathered market downturns in the past andmore thanregained theirvalues. Moreover, many altcoins are associated with critical technologies like blockchain oracles, cross-chain commerce, and consumer entertainment.As a result, those cryptos can continue to deliver financial rewards in the near future.</p><p>In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, the following cryptos could also be of interest to readers:</p><ul><li><b>Avalanche</b>(<b>AVAX-USD</b>)</li><li><b>Axie Infinity</b>(<b>AXS-USD</b>)</li><li><b>Cardano</b>(<b>ADA-USD</b>)</li><li><b>Chainlink</b>(<b>LINK-USD</b>)</li><li><b>Decentraland</b>(<b>MANA-USD</b>)</li><li><b>Solana</b>(<b>SOL-USD</b>)</li><li><b>The Sandbox</b>(<b>SAND-USD</b>)</li></ul><p>Those readers who are looking for potential stocks or ETF to participate in the growth of the cryptocurrency market could also consider:</p><ul><li><b>Coinbase Global</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>COIN</u></b>)</li><li><b>Grayscale Future of Finance ETF</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GFOF</u></b>)</li><li><b>Invesco Alerian Galaxy Crypto Economy ETF</b>(NYSEARCA:<b><u>SATO</u></b>)</li><li><b>ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF</b>(NYSEARCA:<b><u>BITO</u></b>)</li></ul><h2><b>Bear Market: Art and NFT Markets</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78f162acb4156082b7d9e21484ed337c\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></h2><p>The art market couldprovide an alternative path to portfolio diversification during a bear market.Furthermore, art pricesexhibita low correlation with other asset classes and may outperform the stock market duringmarket downturns.</p><p>Following its biggest recession in 10 years in 2020, the global art market recovered strongly in 2021, according to the latest annualArt Basel &amp; UBS Global Art Market Report. Aggregate sales of art and antiques by dealers and auction houses reached went over $65 billion, up by 29% from 2020.</p><p>Thus, sales values have even surpassed pre-pandemic levels of 2019. This boom was primarily fueled by art investors from the U.S., with 43% of worldwide sales by value. Greater China was the second-largest art market with 20%.</p><p>Art serves as a store of value during periods of high inflation. With the number of high-net-worth individuals increasing worldwide, art prices have the potential to grow tremendously. Research by Deloitte suggests thatart investing should grow by over 40% by 2026.</p><p>In addition,NFTsare now widely used to represent any object considered unique or rare, including a work of art, music score, or even a book. NFTs are minted, stored, and then transferred on a blockchain. Thus they offer instant and continuous proof of authenticity and origin.</p><p>There are different platforms for readers interested in buying art or NFTs. In addition, the <b>Defiance Digital Revolution ETF</b>(NYSEARCA:<b><u>NFTZ</u></b>) could be of interest to potential investors.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Profitable Places to Hide Your Money During a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Profitable Places to Hide Your Money During a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-15 08:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/7-profitable-places-to-hide-your-money-during-a-bear-market/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here are seven asset classes, including stocks in different industries, that could offer shelter during a bear marketBlue chip companies are those that investors have typically known for decades....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/7-profitable-places-to-hide-your-money-during-a-bear-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DJD":"Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF","TCHP":"T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF","ABBV":"艾伯维公司","PFE":"辉瑞","IBM":"IBM","WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/7-profitable-places-to-hide-your-money-during-a-bear-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154861602","content_text":"Here are seven asset classes, including stocks in different industries, that could offer shelter during a bear marketBlue chip companies are those that investors have typically known for decades.Worldwide spending on healthcare should continue to grow during the decade.Prices ofcommoditiesare expected to remain at historically high levels by the end of 2024.Wall Street offer several options to invest in the growth of real estate.Utility stocks boastmodest but steady growth and above-average dividend yields.Cryptocurrency investors should diversify their investments across different digital assets.Art and NFT prices can act independently of moves in equities.Source: Ruslan Ivantsov / Shutterstock.comIt looks likeWallStreetis bracing for a bear market. Macroeconomic headwinds continue to build, including rampant inflation, slowing economic growth, geopolitical turmoil, and Covid-19 lockdowns in Asia.We now have further uncertaintysurroundingthe stockmarket following the most recent interest rate hike. Animminent bear market is potentially on the horizon. As a result, investors are searching for alternative investment paths for diversification.Growth names that were the darlings onWall Streetduring the pandemic have not beenimmune to these challenges so far in the year. Even large-capitalization (cap) shares have come under pressure since January.Year-to-date (YTD), the S&P 500indexhas so far dropped over 13.5% year-to-date (YTD), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100has declined more than21.5% during the same period.In the past century, we have had over 25bear marketson the Street. Most have lasted an average of less than one year. While it may be tempting to sell stocks in the portfolio to minimize losses, panic selling in a bear market often leads toloss of potential profits and even investment capital.Instead, investors need to develop a calmer and at times opportunistic perspective toward bear markets. Let’s remember that some of the strongest days in the stock market usually follow right after some of the most devastating days.A bear market can be easier to endure when you’re well-diversified and inthe marketfor the long term.With that information, here are seven strategic sectors and asset classes to hide your money in a bear market.Blue Chip StocksHealthcare StocksCommodities StocksReal Estate StocksUtility StocksCryptocurrencyArts and NFTsBear Market: Blue Chip Stocks“Blue chip stocks” are some of the precious gems of the stock market. As mostInvestorPlace.comreaders know, the term comes from poker chips where the blue chips are the most valuable ones of a three color chip set.Blue chip companies are those that you have possibly known for decades. Market caps are typically in the order of hundreds of billions of dollars. The company history goes many decades or even a hundred years. Most of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index belong to a blue chip company.If you like dividends, then blue chips should be on your radar screen. They typically grow dividends regularly over decades.Daily swings are less of an issue in the case of blue chips. Especially due to stable dividends, most investors are reluctant to sell them when the market declines.Since most blue chips have healthy balance sheets and strong leadership, they tend to come out of hard economic times even stronger. In fact, many either buy-out or drive-out their weaker competitors.But, when we have a bear market, shares of blue chips also decline. For instance, the DJIA has lost around 10% so far in 2022. Yet, this percentage is less than those in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.Yet this recent drop in price has made many blue chips undervalued, creating a buying opportunity. If readers are not sure as to which specific blue chip stock to buy, they can also consider blue chip exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold a basket of stocks.The following names of stocks and ETFs can be considered when investing in blue chips:International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM)Pfizer(NYSE:PFE)Walmart(NYSE:WMT)T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF(NYSE:TCHP)Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF(NYSE:DJD)Healthcare StocksWith growing concern about the possibility of a coming recession, many investors are turning to defensive healthcare stocks. The healthcare market tends to remain fairlyresistantto market downtowns. After all, as the past two years have shown, anyone can get sick or become injured at any time.Globally, the healthcare industry continues to grow, spurred by an aging population. We are witnessing continuous development of new medicines and treatment protocols. Worldwide spending on medicine is expected to grow to an average of over10%of global GDP by the year 2030.At the same time, Covid-19 vaccines are likely to soon find an entire new category of patients: children under 5. TheWashington Postrecently reported that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is currently considering an authorization request fromModerna(NASDAQ:MRNA) for use of its vaccine for young children. Pfizer is also expected to make a similar request soon.Healthcare stocks or ETFs could thus provide a potential safe haven for wary investors. Here are a few picks:Abbvie(NYSE:ABBV)Bio-Rad Laboratories(NYSE:BIO)Merck(NYSE:MRK)Novo Nordisk(NYSE:NVO)Thermo Fisher Scientific(NYSE:TMO)iShares Global Healthcare ETF(NYSEARCA:IXJ)Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(NYSEARCA:XLV)Bear Market: CommoditiesAnalysts are increasingly convinced that we are at the start of a long-term structural bull market in commodities. The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlookreport suggests that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the discourse on commodities.Changing global patterns of production, trade, and consumption could keep commodity prices at historically elevated levels by the end of 2024.Moreover, such high commodity prices shouldadd to theinflationary pressures worldwide.Energy prices are of particular interest to investors. Brent crude is currently trading ataround$100 per barrel. And theDow Jones Oil & Gas Index has soaredmore than45% year-to-date (YTD).Moreover, food commodities and fertilizers, which rely on natural gas as a production input, have also seen the largest price increases since 2008. For example, wheat prices are projected to increase by over 40%, reaching an all-time high in 2022.Another group that gets attention as a potential hedge is precious metals. Gold and silver are the traditional metals of choice. Yet, copper, platinum, palladium, nickel, and zinc are also sought by investors in times of uncertainty in the markets.Commodities not only offer an effective hedge against inflation, but they also help diversifyinvestors’portfolios due to their low correlation with stocks. Gold, for example, tends to beinversely correlatedto both stock market performance and the value of the greenback.Silver has often provided a good investment during periods of high inflation. Its value isoften tiedto its utility in certain applications in technology as well as heavy industry.The price ofgoldis up 2.1% over the past year, while the price ofsilveris down 18.2%. Meanwhile,pricesof platinum and palladium are also down year-over-year.Investors can either buy individual stocks or invest in ETFs for commodities like energy, agriculture, and metals.The following names deserve further due diligence:Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM)Barrick Gold(NYSE:GOLD)Franco-Nevada(NYSE:FNV)Newmont(NYSE:NEM)Nucor(NYSE:NUE)Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO)BHP (NYSE:BHP)Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX)SPDR S&P Metals and Mining (NYSEARCA:XME)Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund(NYSEARCA:DBC)iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF(NASDAQ:COMT)Real Estate StocksInvesting in real estate is another option to protect your savings against inflation or volatile markets. It also provides consistent income over a long period.Participating in real estate investment comes in various ways. You can always buy your own private real estate, and possibly at a lower price during an economic slowdown. Of course, you’d need to have the necessary amount of money ready for the transaction. Or you could go toWall Streetto participate in the growth of real estate shares and for less capital.Stock markets offer several options to invest in real estate. These can be shares of builders and developers or Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The latter are companies that own, buy, sell or manage real estate. REITs usually hold a diversified or specialized portfolio. In the U.S., by law, they have to distribute about90%of their income as dividends to qualify as a REIT.Retail investors can go for the shares of either individual developers or REITs. Or they can also explore ETFs that are focused on real estate.The following stocks and ETFs can be considered when investing in real estate:Avalonbay Communities(NYSE:AVB)Lennar(NYSE:LEN)VICI Properties(NYSE:VICI)Welltower(NYSE:WELL)Schwab US REIT ETF(NYSEARCA:SCHH)Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares(NYSEARCA:VNQ)Bear Market: Utility StocksUtilities are often regarded as the defensive and less volatile portion of an investment portfolio.They include electricity, natural gas, clean water, and sewage services. Understandable, businesses and households rely on them regardless of economic cycles.Even during a recession, consumers will, for the most part, pay their bills for power and water.As most utilities are highly regulated, effectively preventing rivals from entering the market, utility stocks are usually associated with low risk andstableinvestments.The outlook for utilities has significantly improved over the past few years. President Biden has made the renewable energy transition a key focus of his administration, setting the target for a carbon-free power industry by 2035.According to a recentreport from the International Energy Association (IEA), renewables are expected to account for almost 95% of the increase in global power capacity through 2026. As a result, we are likely to see hundreds of billions of dollars of investment flow to the utility space to achieve global decarbonization goals.Earlier in March, the Dow Jones Utility Average briefly crossed the 1,000 mark for the first time in itsnearly100-year history. It’s difficult to top utility stocks for modest but steady growth and above-average dividend yields.Against this backdrop, investors could keep the following utility stocks under their radar:Enbridge(NYSE:ENB)Dominion Energy (NYSE:D)Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK)NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE)Fidelity® MSCI Utilities Index ETF (NYSEARCA:FUTY)Utilities Select Sector SPDR® Fund (NYSEARCA:XLU)Vanguard Utilities ETF(NYSEARCA:VPU)Cryptocurrency2022 has been a tough year for the cryptocurrency market. So far in the year,Bitcoin(BTC-USD) andEthereum(ETH-USD) have declined almost 28% and 32%, respectively. Similarly, theGlobal X Blockchain ETF(NASDAQ:BKCH) has lost over half its value YTD.Analysts agree that many altcoins will not make it in the long run. Furthermore, someindividual cryptoswill likely experience even larger declinesin a prolonged bear market.However,if investor portfolios are diversified,they will be able to stay in the market, weather the storm, and capitalize onprofit opportunities. In a bear market, crypto investors should diversify their investments across large-cap market digital asset leaders, fast-growing new cryptos, non-fungible token (NFT) cryptos, decentralized finance (DeFi) coins, and stablecoins.Smart investors can potentially endure bear markets through dollar cost averaging, which involves making smallperiodicpurchases without committing to a single large purchase. Such an approach could help smooth out price volatility. As a result, investors can build a portfolio according to a time-based average price.Well-established cryptos have weathered market downturns in the past andmore thanregained theirvalues. Moreover, many altcoins are associated with critical technologies like blockchain oracles, cross-chain commerce, and consumer entertainment.As a result, those cryptos can continue to deliver financial rewards in the near future.In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, the following cryptos could also be of interest to readers:Avalanche(AVAX-USD)Axie Infinity(AXS-USD)Cardano(ADA-USD)Chainlink(LINK-USD)Decentraland(MANA-USD)Solana(SOL-USD)The Sandbox(SAND-USD)Those readers who are looking for potential stocks or ETF to participate in the growth of the cryptocurrency market could also consider:Coinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN)Grayscale Future of Finance ETF(NYSE:GFOF)Invesco Alerian Galaxy Crypto Economy ETF(NYSEARCA:SATO)ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO)Bear Market: Art and NFT MarketsThe art market couldprovide an alternative path to portfolio diversification during a bear market.Furthermore, art pricesexhibita low correlation with other asset classes and may outperform the stock market duringmarket downturns.Following its biggest recession in 10 years in 2020, the global art market recovered strongly in 2021, according to the latest annualArt Basel & UBS Global Art Market Report. Aggregate sales of art and antiques by dealers and auction houses reached went over $65 billion, up by 29% from 2020.Thus, sales values have even surpassed pre-pandemic levels of 2019. This boom was primarily fueled by art investors from the U.S., with 43% of worldwide sales by value. Greater China was the second-largest art market with 20%.Art serves as a store of value during periods of high inflation. With the number of high-net-worth individuals increasing worldwide, art prices have the potential to grow tremendously. Research by Deloitte suggests thatart investing should grow by over 40% by 2026.In addition,NFTsare now widely used to represent any object considered unique or rare, including a work of art, music score, or even a book. NFTs are minted, stored, and then transferred on a blockchain. Thus they offer instant and continuous proof of authenticity and origin.There are different platforms for readers interested in buying art or NFTs. In addition, the Defiance Digital Revolution ETF(NYSEARCA:NFTZ) could be of interest to potential investors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020118179,"gmtCreate":1652586272791,"gmtModify":1676535125355,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020118179","repostId":"2235110483","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235110483","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1652577589,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2235110483?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How a Bitcoin Market \"in Extreme Fear\" Compares with the Past, and What to Expect Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235110483","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"It has been a bloodbath week, as some called it, for the crypto market.Stablecoin USDTerra, or UST ,","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It has been a bloodbath week, as some called it, for the crypto market.</p><p>Stablecoin USDTerra, or UST , once among the top 10 largest cryptocurrency by market cap, lost its 1 to 1 peg against the U.S. dollar, falling to as low as 6 cents on Friday, according to CoinDesk data. LUNA , another cryptocurrency backing UST, fell nearly to zero from over $80 in early May, with its market capitalization shrinking by more than $40 billion from early April.</p><p>It marks &#34;the largest wealth destruction event in the short history of the crypto markets,&#34; since bitcoin was created in 2019, crypto trading firm QCP Capital wrote in a Friday note.</p><p>Meanwhile, bitcoin  on Thursday fell to $25,402, the lowest level since December 2020, before it rebounded to about $30,000 on Friday, according to CoinDesk data. The bitcoin fear and greed index currently stands at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of its lowest points, indicating extreme fear</p><p>Tether , the largest stablecoin, briefly fell to as low as 96 cents against the dollar on Thursday, before it rebounded to $1.</p><p>More than$400 billionhas been wiped out from the crypto market during the past seven days, according to CoinGecko. All sectors within the crypto space have seen double-digit losses during this period, with cryptocurrencies related to Web 3, the so-called next generation of the internet, posting the biggest loss of 41% on average, according to analysts at Messari.</p><p>The series of events may herald the beginning of another &#34;crypto winter,&#34; said one industry participant, echoing a common theme this week on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>.</p><p>Some are more optimistic. &#34;It&#39;s a pattern. Back when we look at what happened in 2014, the crash happened and there&#39;s a big panic. People say, oh, crypto is dead. It&#39;s not coming back. But of course, it has come back,&#34; Mike Belshe, founder and chief executive at crypto infrastructure provider BitGo, told MarketWatch in an interview.</p><p>To be sure, the industry is still nascent and lightly regulated, while the crypto market remains volatile with high risks.</p><h2>Bitcoin drawdown</h2><p>At a Thursday low of $25,402, bitcoin was down 63% from its all-time high of $68,990 in November. The percentage of decline is larger than the 54% fall from the cycle high in July 2021, but smaller than that in other bear markets.</p><p>The chart below shows bitcoin&#39;s previous drawdown from each cycle highs.</p><p>In March 2020, bitcoin was down up to 77% from the cycle high, according to Glassnode data. In the bear markets of January 2015 and December 2018, bitcoin capitulated at lows of 85.5% and 83.8% from local highs, respectively, according to Glassnode data.</p><h2>Market bottom?</h2><p>Some said bitcoin is nearing a &#34;generational cyclical bottom.&#34;</p><p>Bitcoin&#39;s low on Thursday is close to its realized price, the aggregated cost basis of investors on-chain, which currently stands at $24,000, Will Clemente, lead insights analyst at bitcoin mining company Blockware Solutions, wrote in a Friday note.  &#34;Any prices below realized price should be seen as extreme value,&#34; Clemente wrote.</p><p>Historically, whenever bitcoin&#39;s price approached the realized price, it indicated a buying opportunity, Clemente told MarketWatch in a recent interview.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth watching bitcoin&#39;s 200-week moving average price, which usually indicates a cyclical bottom, Clemente said. It currently stands slightly above $21,500.</p><p>Still, great uncertainties remain in financial markets, as demonstrated by price actions across equities.</p><p>Read:Despite bounce, S&amp;P 500 hovers perilously close to bear market. Here&#39;s the number that counts</p><p>&#34;I think that this is just the beginning of an ongoing decline in crypto,&#34; Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, told MarketWatch in a recent interview.</p><p>Hatfield attributed bitcoin&#39;s high return in 2020 and 2021 partly to the Federal Reserve&#39;s quantitative easing policy. &#34;We had an unprecedented increase in Fed liquidity, buying $120 billion a month of securities. And now we will have an erratic shift to a reduction in liquidity for $95 billion per month,&#34; Hatfield said.</p><p>&#34;The Fed hasn&#39;t even begun to do quantitative tightening. They just said they&#39;re going to,&#34; Hatfield said.</p><p>Hatfield estimated bitcoin could fall to $20,000 by the end of this year, and said in the worst scenario, it may drop back to its pre-pandemic level, which was about $10,000. &#34;I&#39;m not predicting we&#39;ll get there, but $10,000 would be a reasonable target,&#34; Hatfield said. Hatfield compared bitcoin with Cathie Wood&#39;s flagship Ark Innovation <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$(ARKK)$</a>, which is down more than 70% from its peak and at about the same level in March 2020.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How a Bitcoin Market \"in Extreme Fear\" Compares with the Past, and What to Expect Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow a Bitcoin Market \"in Extreme Fear\" Compares with the Past, and What to Expect Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-15 09:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>It has been a bloodbath week, as some called it, for the crypto market.</p><p>Stablecoin USDTerra, or UST , once among the top 10 largest cryptocurrency by market cap, lost its 1 to 1 peg against the U.S. dollar, falling to as low as 6 cents on Friday, according to CoinDesk data. LUNA , another cryptocurrency backing UST, fell nearly to zero from over $80 in early May, with its market capitalization shrinking by more than $40 billion from early April.</p><p>It marks &#34;the largest wealth destruction event in the short history of the crypto markets,&#34; since bitcoin was created in 2019, crypto trading firm QCP Capital wrote in a Friday note.</p><p>Meanwhile, bitcoin  on Thursday fell to $25,402, the lowest level since December 2020, before it rebounded to about $30,000 on Friday, according to CoinDesk data. The bitcoin fear and greed index currently stands at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of its lowest points, indicating extreme fear</p><p>Tether , the largest stablecoin, briefly fell to as low as 96 cents against the dollar on Thursday, before it rebounded to $1.</p><p>More than$400 billionhas been wiped out from the crypto market during the past seven days, according to CoinGecko. All sectors within the crypto space have seen double-digit losses during this period, with cryptocurrencies related to Web 3, the so-called next generation of the internet, posting the biggest loss of 41% on average, according to analysts at Messari.</p><p>The series of events may herald the beginning of another &#34;crypto winter,&#34; said one industry participant, echoing a common theme this week on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>.</p><p>Some are more optimistic. &#34;It&#39;s a pattern. Back when we look at what happened in 2014, the crash happened and there&#39;s a big panic. People say, oh, crypto is dead. It&#39;s not coming back. But of course, it has come back,&#34; Mike Belshe, founder and chief executive at crypto infrastructure provider BitGo, told MarketWatch in an interview.</p><p>To be sure, the industry is still nascent and lightly regulated, while the crypto market remains volatile with high risks.</p><h2>Bitcoin drawdown</h2><p>At a Thursday low of $25,402, bitcoin was down 63% from its all-time high of $68,990 in November. The percentage of decline is larger than the 54% fall from the cycle high in July 2021, but smaller than that in other bear markets.</p><p>The chart below shows bitcoin&#39;s previous drawdown from each cycle highs.</p><p>In March 2020, bitcoin was down up to 77% from the cycle high, according to Glassnode data. In the bear markets of January 2015 and December 2018, bitcoin capitulated at lows of 85.5% and 83.8% from local highs, respectively, according to Glassnode data.</p><h2>Market bottom?</h2><p>Some said bitcoin is nearing a &#34;generational cyclical bottom.&#34;</p><p>Bitcoin&#39;s low on Thursday is close to its realized price, the aggregated cost basis of investors on-chain, which currently stands at $24,000, Will Clemente, lead insights analyst at bitcoin mining company Blockware Solutions, wrote in a Friday note.  &#34;Any prices below realized price should be seen as extreme value,&#34; Clemente wrote.</p><p>Historically, whenever bitcoin&#39;s price approached the realized price, it indicated a buying opportunity, Clemente told MarketWatch in a recent interview.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth watching bitcoin&#39;s 200-week moving average price, which usually indicates a cyclical bottom, Clemente said. It currently stands slightly above $21,500.</p><p>Still, great uncertainties remain in financial markets, as demonstrated by price actions across equities.</p><p>Read:Despite bounce, S&amp;P 500 hovers perilously close to bear market. Here&#39;s the number that counts</p><p>&#34;I think that this is just the beginning of an ongoing decline in crypto,&#34; Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, told MarketWatch in a recent interview.</p><p>Hatfield attributed bitcoin&#39;s high return in 2020 and 2021 partly to the Federal Reserve&#39;s quantitative easing policy. &#34;We had an unprecedented increase in Fed liquidity, buying $120 billion a month of securities. And now we will have an erratic shift to a reduction in liquidity for $95 billion per month,&#34; Hatfield said.</p><p>&#34;The Fed hasn&#39;t even begun to do quantitative tightening. They just said they&#39;re going to,&#34; Hatfield said.</p><p>Hatfield estimated bitcoin could fall to $20,000 by the end of this year, and said in the worst scenario, it may drop back to its pre-pandemic level, which was about $10,000. &#34;I&#39;m not predicting we&#39;ll get there, but $10,000 would be a reasonable target,&#34; Hatfield said. Hatfield compared bitcoin with Cathie Wood&#39;s flagship Ark Innovation <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$(ARKK)$</a>, which is down more than 70% from its peak and at about the same level in March 2020.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4544":"ARK ETF合集","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2235110483","content_text":"It has been a bloodbath week, as some called it, for the crypto market.Stablecoin USDTerra, or UST , once among the top 10 largest cryptocurrency by market cap, lost its 1 to 1 peg against the U.S. dollar, falling to as low as 6 cents on Friday, according to CoinDesk data. LUNA , another cryptocurrency backing UST, fell nearly to zero from over $80 in early May, with its market capitalization shrinking by more than $40 billion from early April.It marks \"the largest wealth destruction event in the short history of the crypto markets,\" since bitcoin was created in 2019, crypto trading firm QCP Capital wrote in a Friday note.Meanwhile, bitcoin  on Thursday fell to $25,402, the lowest level since December 2020, before it rebounded to about $30,000 on Friday, according to CoinDesk data. The bitcoin fear and greed index currently stands at one of its lowest points, indicating extreme fearTether , the largest stablecoin, briefly fell to as low as 96 cents against the dollar on Thursday, before it rebounded to $1.More than$400 billionhas been wiped out from the crypto market during the past seven days, according to CoinGecko. All sectors within the crypto space have seen double-digit losses during this period, with cryptocurrencies related to Web 3, the so-called next generation of the internet, posting the biggest loss of 41% on average, according to analysts at Messari.The series of events may herald the beginning of another \"crypto winter,\" said one industry participant, echoing a common theme this week on Twitter.Some are more optimistic. \"It's a pattern. Back when we look at what happened in 2014, the crash happened and there's a big panic. People say, oh, crypto is dead. It's not coming back. But of course, it has come back,\" Mike Belshe, founder and chief executive at crypto infrastructure provider BitGo, told MarketWatch in an interview.To be sure, the industry is still nascent and lightly regulated, while the crypto market remains volatile with high risks.Bitcoin drawdownAt a Thursday low of $25,402, bitcoin was down 63% from its all-time high of $68,990 in November. The percentage of decline is larger than the 54% fall from the cycle high in July 2021, but smaller than that in other bear markets.The chart below shows bitcoin's previous drawdown from each cycle highs.In March 2020, bitcoin was down up to 77% from the cycle high, according to Glassnode data. In the bear markets of January 2015 and December 2018, bitcoin capitulated at lows of 85.5% and 83.8% from local highs, respectively, according to Glassnode data.Market bottom?Some said bitcoin is nearing a \"generational cyclical bottom.\"Bitcoin's low on Thursday is close to its realized price, the aggregated cost basis of investors on-chain, which currently stands at $24,000, Will Clemente, lead insights analyst at bitcoin mining company Blockware Solutions, wrote in a Friday note.  \"Any prices below realized price should be seen as extreme value,\" Clemente wrote.Historically, whenever bitcoin's price approached the realized price, it indicated a buying opportunity, Clemente told MarketWatch in a recent interview.It's also worth watching bitcoin's 200-week moving average price, which usually indicates a cyclical bottom, Clemente said. It currently stands slightly above $21,500.Still, great uncertainties remain in financial markets, as demonstrated by price actions across equities.Read:Despite bounce, S&P 500 hovers perilously close to bear market. Here's the number that counts\"I think that this is just the beginning of an ongoing decline in crypto,\" Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, told MarketWatch in a recent interview.Hatfield attributed bitcoin's high return in 2020 and 2021 partly to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy. \"We had an unprecedented increase in Fed liquidity, buying $120 billion a month of securities. And now we will have an erratic shift to a reduction in liquidity for $95 billion per month,\" Hatfield said.\"The Fed hasn't even begun to do quantitative tightening. They just said they're going to,\" Hatfield said.Hatfield estimated bitcoin could fall to $20,000 by the end of this year, and said in the worst scenario, it may drop back to its pre-pandemic level, which was about $10,000. \"I'm not predicting we'll get there, but $10,000 would be a reasonable target,\" Hatfield said. Hatfield compared bitcoin with Cathie Wood's flagship Ark Innovation Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF $(ARKK)$, which is down more than 70% from its peak and at about the same level in March 2020.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9029624487,"gmtCreate":1652773858549,"gmtModify":1676535158950,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting &amp; insightful","listText":"Interesting &amp; insightful","text":"Interesting & insightful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029624487","repostId":"1167257580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167257580","pubTimestamp":1652754572,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167257580?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-17 10:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: A Smart Way to Play Tesla’s Big Stock-Market Swings Using Options","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167257580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Take advantage of this pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put optionsAFP via Getty ImagesTesla h","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Take advantage of this pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put options</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dd8dffa3cf63cb0bfdceb9885f4027f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p>Tesla has recently been one of the most active and volatile stocks. However, what appears to the naked eye is not always the same when placed under the microscope of analytical mathematics.</p><p>Let’s begin by looking at the stock’s one-year chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46d4e3160f8830fb77d787257d05e32\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lawrence McMillan</span></p><p>We can see that the stock was in a steady uptrend from May through October of 2021. Then, it experienced a strong rise into November. Since then, it has been volatile – swinging back and forth in wide ranges and generally moving lower. Note that the stock bottomed in the 550-570 area back in May 2021.</p><p>This action has increased both the realized volatility of Tesla stock and the price of its options. In reality, though, Tesla options are not very expensive on a historical basis. However, there is a pattern to the pricing of the Tesla options that presents itself as a highly viable strategy.</p><p><b>A look into Tesla volatility</b></p><p>Let’s begin with some analysis of the volatility of Tesla and its options. Currently, the stock’s 20-day realized (historical) volatility (HV) is 82%. I would not be too concerned with what 82% means statistically, but rather use it for comparison with other volatility measures. The 50-day HV is 70%, and the 100-day HV is 71%. So those are in the same general neighborhood.</p><p>This chart shows the 20-day HV overlaid on top of the chart of the stock.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef2fc8c1e05b180584420867e11c1e4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lawrence McMillan</span></p><p>The 20-day HV (top graph) was declining when Tesla was rising, from May through October 2021. That is typical. Since then, however, with Tesla swinging in a wide range, the 20-day HV has increased, although it has roughly stayed in a range of 55% to 90% since last November.</p><p>These historical volatilities come into sharper focus when we look at the implied volatilities of Tesla options. On a volume-weighted calculation, the composite implied volatility (CIV) of TSLA options is 71.4%. Since the historical volatilities were 82%, 70%, and 71%, that shows the implied volatility of Tesla options is “about right.” They are not overly expensive but nor are they cheap when we consider how fast the underlying stock has been moving around.</p><p>There is one more piece of information that we need to have to build an option strategy: a comparison of today’s implied volatility (CIV) with past daily readings of CIV. That is shown in the next chart.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d3bf3cf7cf70ca3d240bc6382e2d0cc\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lawrence McMillan</span></p><p>You can see that the current CIV (71.3%) is toward the upper end of the range of CIVs over the past year. Last September, Tesla options were trading with an implied volatility of 31% — that is the low point on the Implied Volatility chart. In fact, over the past 600 trading days, the current reading of 71.3% is in the 67th percentile. The percentile is merely an easy way to state how expensive the options are, on a scale of 0 to 100. So they are a little bit “overpriced” but not tremendously so.</p><p><b>Option strategies to consider</b></p><p><b>Call purchase:</b>So what option strategies make sense? If you are bullish on the stock, you are not really overpaying for an outright call purchase; the outright purchase of the at-the-money, June (17th) 770 call costs 70 points, or $7,000 for one contract. That is a large dollar amount for one call, but statistically is not a terribly high price, for its implied volatility is about 75% — generally in line with the volatilities that were discussed above.</p><p>One could counter that dollar expense a little by creating a call bull spread – perhaps selling the Jun (17th) 870 call against the call you are buying. That would bring in roughly $3,000 but would cap off your profit potential at 870.</p><p>As one can see from the accompanying stock charts, the stock could be above 870 very quickly if things turn bullish.</p><p>Personally, with the CIV in the 67th percentile, if I were outright bullish on the stock, I would not bother with a call bull spread because it caps off your profit potential. Call bull spreads only make statistical sense if the CIV is much higher – perhaps near the 90th percentile or higher.</p><p><b>Put purchase:</b> Essentially, the same argument applies if you are bearish on the stock: buy the at-the-money put and don’t spread. There is a small argument in favor of a bear spread (for example, buy the June 770 put and sell the Jun 670 put) over the call bull spread, which we’ll get to in a minute.</p><p><b>Put sale:</b> If one wouldn’t mind owning the stock at 550, the June (17th) 550 put could be sold for about 8 points. That is where the support was on the above stock charts, and is an implied volatility of 90% — meaning that you would be selling an expensive option (since 90% is higher than the other volatilities discussed above).</p><p>The problem with a put sale is that if the stock drops below 550, one might not be so willing to own the stock. But the put sale can always be closed out for a loss if Tesla is falling.</p><p><b>Neutral strategy:</b> A neutral strategy is generally one in which the strategist doesn’t necessarily hold a strong opinion about the forthcoming movements in the underlying stock, but rather can build an option strategy that makes money in a large number of outcomes. Neutral strategies have risk, though, and they cannot just be established willy-nilly without understanding the specifics of the strategy.</p><p>One strategy that seems to be viable here involves what is called a “skew” in the implied volatility of the options – particularly the put options. It is often the case with index options, and with stock options where the underlying stock is in a downtrend, that out-of-the-money puts are far more expensive than at-the-money puts.</p><p>Consider the following current information:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04070d2c608f982be2031e33d0f1a735\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"489\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put options is called a “negative” skew or “reverse” skew – meaning that out-of-the-money puts are expensive, when compared with at-the-money puts.</p><p>By the way, the pattern does not extend to the TSLA calls unless one is looking at extremely far out-of-the-money calls.</p><p>When there is a reverse skew, any option strategy that takes advantage of the skew buy puts with “higher” strikes (at-the-money, say), and sell puts with lower strikes. That is why it was noted above that a put bear spread might make some sense (even though it would cap off your downside profit potential, which you probably would not want if you were bearish on Tesla).</p><p>However, in this case, we are looking for a more neutral strategy. One of my favorite strategies in this case is to:</p><ol><li>Buy a high strike put</li><li>Sell a lower strike put</li><li>Sell an <i>even</i> lower strike put</li><li>Buy a deeply out-of-the-money to cap off risk</li></ol><p>Suppose we establish this strategy:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd43eeb4e41f843bf8bb69e4ff3b226\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"387\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Note that we are buying a lower volatility (80%) and selling two higher volatilities (82% and 88%) on the three higher strikes in the spread. The fourth leg is there mainly to limit risk and reduce the money needed to establish the spread.</p><p>If you want to attach a name to this strategy, it is often called a “broken-wing” butterfly spread.</p><p>If the stock is above 700 at expiration, you would profit by the amount of the initial credit ($600 in this case) because all of the puts would expire worthless in that case.</p><p>If the stock is between 570 and 680 at expiration, you make $2,600 on the spread.</p><p>But if the stock falls below 544 at expiration, you have risk down to the lowest strike, in this case 400. That would generally be too much risk to take (144 points), so in practice, one would stop out this spread if Tesla fell below the lowest short strike, 570. Recall that was the March 2021 low for the stock, so in theory there might be some support at that level. If it fails, then it would be time to abandon this spread.</p><p>This is one other interesting aspect to spreads that attempt to take advantage of the skew. The position can often be removed in advance of expiration for a reasonable credit (not the maximum credit, of course). This is due to the way that options decay when there is a skew. For example, if Tesla is between 680 and 700 in early June, one would likely be able to remove the spread for a credit of 5 to 10 points.</p><p>The following graph shows the profit and risk potential of this spread if held until expiration. As noted above, one should stop out the position if Tesla falls below 570, rather than risk it dropping to 400.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf90dc892adef9c4bd9106677613be48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Lawrence McMillan</span></p><p>This type of spread can only be established in a margin account. Even though there is no margin debit, the requirements for spread trading in options necessitate what is called “collateral margin” to finance the spread. In essence, one must advance the risk of the spread when it is established. Option-oriented brokerage firms might reduce that requirement, but the ultimate risk is the 144 points between the two lower strikes, less the initial credit of 6 points, or $13,800.</p><p>Typically, an account with a larger portfolio of stocks might consider a spread such as this as an “overlay,” where the borrowing power of the stocks could be used to finance the spread without actually having to advance cash for the collateral requirement.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>Tesla options are fairly priced. Thus any speculative strategy can be undertaken without fear of having overpaid for the options. Since the options are fairly priced, do not use vertical spreads (call bull spreads or put bear spreads are not optimal at this time). The presence of the reverse skew in the puts means that traders with a more theoretical or neutral bent can consider spreads where puts with higher strikes are bought and puts with lower strikes are sold. The “broken-wing” butterfly is just one example of that type of spread.</p><p>Finally, investors with a longer-term view might consider selling expensive, deeply out-of-the-money (expensive) Tesla puts, if they wouldn’t mind buying the stock at the strike price should the share price fall.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: A Smart Way to Play Tesla’s Big Stock-Market Swings Using Options</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: A Smart Way to Play Tesla’s Big Stock-Market Swings Using Options\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-17 10:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-smart-way-to-play-teslas-big-stock-market-swings-using-options-11652714566?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Take advantage of this pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put optionsAFP via Getty ImagesTesla has recently been one of the most active and volatile stocks. However, what appears to the naked eye ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-smart-way-to-play-teslas-big-stock-market-swings-using-options-11652714566?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-smart-way-to-play-teslas-big-stock-market-swings-using-options-11652714566?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167257580","content_text":"Take advantage of this pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put optionsAFP via Getty ImagesTesla has recently been one of the most active and volatile stocks. However, what appears to the naked eye is not always the same when placed under the microscope of analytical mathematics.Let’s begin by looking at the stock’s one-year chart:Lawrence McMillanWe can see that the stock was in a steady uptrend from May through October of 2021. Then, it experienced a strong rise into November. Since then, it has been volatile – swinging back and forth in wide ranges and generally moving lower. Note that the stock bottomed in the 550-570 area back in May 2021.This action has increased both the realized volatility of Tesla stock and the price of its options. In reality, though, Tesla options are not very expensive on a historical basis. However, there is a pattern to the pricing of the Tesla options that presents itself as a highly viable strategy.A look into Tesla volatilityLet’s begin with some analysis of the volatility of Tesla and its options. Currently, the stock’s 20-day realized (historical) volatility (HV) is 82%. I would not be too concerned with what 82% means statistically, but rather use it for comparison with other volatility measures. The 50-day HV is 70%, and the 100-day HV is 71%. So those are in the same general neighborhood.This chart shows the 20-day HV overlaid on top of the chart of the stock.Lawrence McMillanThe 20-day HV (top graph) was declining when Tesla was rising, from May through October 2021. That is typical. Since then, however, with Tesla swinging in a wide range, the 20-day HV has increased, although it has roughly stayed in a range of 55% to 90% since last November.These historical volatilities come into sharper focus when we look at the implied volatilities of Tesla options. On a volume-weighted calculation, the composite implied volatility (CIV) of TSLA options is 71.4%. Since the historical volatilities were 82%, 70%, and 71%, that shows the implied volatility of Tesla options is “about right.” They are not overly expensive but nor are they cheap when we consider how fast the underlying stock has been moving around.There is one more piece of information that we need to have to build an option strategy: a comparison of today’s implied volatility (CIV) with past daily readings of CIV. That is shown in the next chart.Lawrence McMillanYou can see that the current CIV (71.3%) is toward the upper end of the range of CIVs over the past year. Last September, Tesla options were trading with an implied volatility of 31% — that is the low point on the Implied Volatility chart. In fact, over the past 600 trading days, the current reading of 71.3% is in the 67th percentile. The percentile is merely an easy way to state how expensive the options are, on a scale of 0 to 100. So they are a little bit “overpriced” but not tremendously so.Option strategies to considerCall purchase:So what option strategies make sense? If you are bullish on the stock, you are not really overpaying for an outright call purchase; the outright purchase of the at-the-money, June (17th) 770 call costs 70 points, or $7,000 for one contract. That is a large dollar amount for one call, but statistically is not a terribly high price, for its implied volatility is about 75% — generally in line with the volatilities that were discussed above.One could counter that dollar expense a little by creating a call bull spread – perhaps selling the Jun (17th) 870 call against the call you are buying. That would bring in roughly $3,000 but would cap off your profit potential at 870.As one can see from the accompanying stock charts, the stock could be above 870 very quickly if things turn bullish.Personally, with the CIV in the 67th percentile, if I were outright bullish on the stock, I would not bother with a call bull spread because it caps off your profit potential. Call bull spreads only make statistical sense if the CIV is much higher – perhaps near the 90th percentile or higher.Put purchase: Essentially, the same argument applies if you are bearish on the stock: buy the at-the-money put and don’t spread. There is a small argument in favor of a bear spread (for example, buy the June 770 put and sell the Jun 670 put) over the call bull spread, which we’ll get to in a minute.Put sale: If one wouldn’t mind owning the stock at 550, the June (17th) 550 put could be sold for about 8 points. That is where the support was on the above stock charts, and is an implied volatility of 90% — meaning that you would be selling an expensive option (since 90% is higher than the other volatilities discussed above).The problem with a put sale is that if the stock drops below 550, one might not be so willing to own the stock. But the put sale can always be closed out for a loss if Tesla is falling.Neutral strategy: A neutral strategy is generally one in which the strategist doesn’t necessarily hold a strong opinion about the forthcoming movements in the underlying stock, but rather can build an option strategy that makes money in a large number of outcomes. Neutral strategies have risk, though, and they cannot just be established willy-nilly without understanding the specifics of the strategy.One strategy that seems to be viable here involves what is called a “skew” in the implied volatility of the options – particularly the put options. It is often the case with index options, and with stock options where the underlying stock is in a downtrend, that out-of-the-money puts are far more expensive than at-the-money puts.Consider the following current information:The pattern of implied volatility of Tesla put options is called a “negative” skew or “reverse” skew – meaning that out-of-the-money puts are expensive, when compared with at-the-money puts.By the way, the pattern does not extend to the TSLA calls unless one is looking at extremely far out-of-the-money calls.When there is a reverse skew, any option strategy that takes advantage of the skew buy puts with “higher” strikes (at-the-money, say), and sell puts with lower strikes. That is why it was noted above that a put bear spread might make some sense (even though it would cap off your downside profit potential, which you probably would not want if you were bearish on Tesla).However, in this case, we are looking for a more neutral strategy. One of my favorite strategies in this case is to:Buy a high strike putSell a lower strike putSell an even lower strike putBuy a deeply out-of-the-money to cap off riskSuppose we establish this strategy:Note that we are buying a lower volatility (80%) and selling two higher volatilities (82% and 88%) on the three higher strikes in the spread. The fourth leg is there mainly to limit risk and reduce the money needed to establish the spread.If you want to attach a name to this strategy, it is often called a “broken-wing” butterfly spread.If the stock is above 700 at expiration, you would profit by the amount of the initial credit ($600 in this case) because all of the puts would expire worthless in that case.If the stock is between 570 and 680 at expiration, you make $2,600 on the spread.But if the stock falls below 544 at expiration, you have risk down to the lowest strike, in this case 400. That would generally be too much risk to take (144 points), so in practice, one would stop out this spread if Tesla fell below the lowest short strike, 570. Recall that was the March 2021 low for the stock, so in theory there might be some support at that level. If it fails, then it would be time to abandon this spread.This is one other interesting aspect to spreads that attempt to take advantage of the skew. The position can often be removed in advance of expiration for a reasonable credit (not the maximum credit, of course). This is due to the way that options decay when there is a skew. For example, if Tesla is between 680 and 700 in early June, one would likely be able to remove the spread for a credit of 5 to 10 points.The following graph shows the profit and risk potential of this spread if held until expiration. As noted above, one should stop out the position if Tesla falls below 570, rather than risk it dropping to 400.Lawrence McMillanThis type of spread can only be established in a margin account. Even though there is no margin debit, the requirements for spread trading in options necessitate what is called “collateral margin” to finance the spread. In essence, one must advance the risk of the spread when it is established. Option-oriented brokerage firms might reduce that requirement, but the ultimate risk is the 144 points between the two lower strikes, less the initial credit of 6 points, or $13,800.Typically, an account with a larger portfolio of stocks might consider a spread such as this as an “overlay,” where the borrowing power of the stocks could be used to finance the spread without actually having to advance cash for the collateral requirement.SummaryTesla options are fairly priced. Thus any speculative strategy can be undertaken without fear of having overpaid for the options. Since the options are fairly priced, do not use vertical spreads (call bull spreads or put bear spreads are not optimal at this time). The presence of the reverse skew in the puts means that traders with a more theoretical or neutral bent can consider spreads where puts with higher strikes are bought and puts with lower strikes are sold. The “broken-wing” butterfly is just one example of that type of spread.Finally, investors with a longer-term view might consider selling expensive, deeply out-of-the-money (expensive) Tesla puts, if they wouldn’t mind buying the stock at the strike price should the share price fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020115432,"gmtCreate":1652586650426,"gmtModify":1676535125434,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good knowledge","listText":"Good knowledge","text":"Good knowledge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020115432","repostId":"2235487417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235487417","pubTimestamp":1652578909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2235487417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235487417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recessi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bc5d75faa18c73540fd4de9e54162dd\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.</p><p><b>The Fed</b><b> Gets Real About Inflation</b></p><p>For the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Recession Fears On The Rise</b></p><p>Recession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.</p><p>But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.</p><p>With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe75a068a923482f18ea951209f1218e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p>In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.</p><p><b>Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is Correct</b></p><p>We’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3622db42e9c19dca701a97e6c37b9d7c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p><b>Bottom Line: Charting The Course From Here</b></p><p>Given the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-15 09:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4139":"生物科技","VIRI":"Virios Therapeutics, LLC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2235487417","content_text":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.Recession Fears On The RiseRecession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is CorrectWe’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.Bottom Line: Charting The Course From HereGiven the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020114982,"gmtCreate":1652586684746,"gmtModify":1676535125444,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good knowledge learning","listText":"Good knowledge learning","text":"Good knowledge learning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020114982","repostId":"2235487417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235487417","pubTimestamp":1652578909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2235487417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235487417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recessi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bc5d75faa18c73540fd4de9e54162dd\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.</p><p><b>The Fed</b><b> Gets Real About Inflation</b></p><p>For the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Recession Fears On The Rise</b></p><p>Recession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.</p><p>But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.</p><p>With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe75a068a923482f18ea951209f1218e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p>In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.</p><p><b>Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is Correct</b></p><p>We’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3622db42e9c19dca701a97e6c37b9d7c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p><b>Bottom Line: Charting The Course From Here</b></p><p>Given the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-15 09:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4139":"生物科技","VIRI":"Virios Therapeutics, LLC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2235487417","content_text":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.Recession Fears On The RiseRecession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is CorrectWe’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.Bottom Line: Charting The Course From HereGiven the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020115209,"gmtCreate":1652586624901,"gmtModify":1676535125452,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good knowledge","listText":"Good knowledge","text":"Good knowledge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020115209","repostId":"2235487417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235487417","pubTimestamp":1652578909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2235487417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235487417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recessi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bc5d75faa18c73540fd4de9e54162dd\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.</p><p><b>The Fed</b><b> Gets Real About Inflation</b></p><p>For the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Recession Fears On The Rise</b></p><p>Recession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.</p><p>But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.</p><p>With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe75a068a923482f18ea951209f1218e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p>In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.</p><p><b>Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is Correct</b></p><p>We’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3622db42e9c19dca701a97e6c37b9d7c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p><b>Bottom Line: Charting The Course From Here</b></p><p>Given the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-15 09:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4139":"生物科技","VIRI":"Virios Therapeutics, LLC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2235487417","content_text":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.Recession Fears On The RiseRecession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is CorrectWe’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.Bottom Line: Charting The Course From HereGiven the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020114629,"gmtCreate":1652586731761,"gmtModify":1676535125461,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Informative","listText":"Informative","text":"Informative","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020114629","repostId":"2235891744","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029640683,"gmtCreate":1652775710842,"gmtModify":1676535159371,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Apple","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Apple","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Apple","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f904b5af499db59d1bffe66578b5531b","width":"750","height":"1925"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029640683","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029657644,"gmtCreate":1652775600188,"gmtModify":1676535159331,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Apple","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Apple","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Apple","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6db72a697309a1ed415502b8ca370982","width":"750","height":"1925"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029657644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029654557,"gmtCreate":1652775452079,"gmtModify":1676535159320,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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10:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"One-Time Richest Singapore Tycoon Has Lost 80% of His Fortune","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106707720","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Forrest Li is no longer among the world’s 500 richest peopleCompany will post a record quarterly los","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Forrest Li is no longer among the world’s 500 richest people</li><li>Company will post a record quarterly loss, analysts estimate</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31131a2e8248c8dba0a1caeb5f0669e2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Forrest LiPhotographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Just a few months ago, Forrest Li had a $22 billion fortune and was the richest person in Singapore. Now he’s emerging as one of the biggest losers from a market crash that’s wiped more than $1 trillion from the net worth of the world’s 500 richest people this year.</p><p>It’s been a litany of unfortunate events for the Sea Ltd. founder: The tech selloff, the shutdown of its main e-commerce operation in India and disappointing earnings have tanked the company’s American depository receipts more than 80% from a peak in October. He’s still rich -- worth $4.7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index -- but no longer enough to make the cutoff for the top 500 on the planet.</p><p>Traders are preparing for more bad news. The company, which is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings later Tuesday, is expected to post a record loss of more than $740 million, according to the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. Sea’s net loss had already widened in the final three months of last year as the firm sped up its expansion.</p><p>The downfall showcases the vulnerability of the quick wealth creation from the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic -- when tech giants benefited from greater demand for their services such as Sea’s e-commerce and gaming. Higher interest rates and the tensions surrounding the war in Ukraine are further hurting growth stocks.</p><p>“Sea is going to see increasing challenges in 2022,” said Shawn Yang, managing director at Blue Lotus Capital, an independent equity research firm in Hong Kong that cut the stock’s target price to $105 from $180 on May 10.</p><p>The company’s e-commerce sales, its main source of revenue, could come short of its annual guidance of $8.9 billion to $9.1 billion as it faces intensifying competition from rivals including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and as consumers return to offline stores with the easing of Covid restrictions, Yang said.</p><p>A Sea representative declined to comment for this story.</p><p>Beyond Li, many tech entrepreneurs who saw their wealth rise on the back of the pandemic-induced growth are being hit hard by the market selloff. Eric Yuan, chief executive officer of Zoom Video Communications Inc., has lost $4.4 billion of wealth this year, while the fortune of Amazon.com Inc.’s Jeff Bezos, the world’s second-richest person, is down almost $58 billion. Ernie Garcia II and Ernie Garcia III, the father-son duo that runs used-car company Carvana Co., have shed $15 billion combined.</p><p>Sea’s valuation collapse prompted the usually low-profile Li to reach out to his employees in March. In a 900-word internal memo, he told them not to fear and that while the drop is painful, “this is short-term pain that we have to endure to truly maximize our long-term potential.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/643ef80f3b555d998c98ae57832874fa\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Analysts generally remain optimistic about Sea’s future even though the stock fell to a two-year low earlier this month. Of the 38 analysts tracked by Bloomberg covering it, 34 recommend buying it. The company’s valuation may begin to rebound as prospects improve with its geographical expansion, according to Nathan Naidu, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.</p><p>For now, though, the shares remain volatile. After a 32% rebound amid a tech rally in the last two days of last week, they dropped 6.7% Monday. Gang Ye, one of the other company founders, has lost $4.3 billion in wealth this year, while David Chen is no longer a billionaire.</p><p>“In the current economic environment, the level of anxiety about the effects of anticipated rate hikes by the Fed, along with rising inflation and impact from the Russian - Ukraine war just aren’t good for risky assets such as tech stocks,” BI’s Naidu said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One-Time Richest Singapore Tycoon Has Lost 80% of His Fortune</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne-Time Richest Singapore Tycoon Has Lost 80% of His Fortune\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-17 10:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-16/sea-founder-loses-17-billion-in-one-of-tech-s-biggest-wipeouts?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Forrest Li is no longer among the world’s 500 richest peopleCompany will post a record quarterly loss, analysts estimateForrest LiPhotographer: Wei Leng Tay/BloombergJust a few months ago, Forrest Li ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-16/sea-founder-loses-17-billion-in-one-of-tech-s-biggest-wipeouts?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-16/sea-founder-loses-17-billion-in-one-of-tech-s-biggest-wipeouts?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106707720","content_text":"Forrest Li is no longer among the world’s 500 richest peopleCompany will post a record quarterly loss, analysts estimateForrest LiPhotographer: Wei Leng Tay/BloombergJust a few months ago, Forrest Li had a $22 billion fortune and was the richest person in Singapore. Now he’s emerging as one of the biggest losers from a market crash that’s wiped more than $1 trillion from the net worth of the world’s 500 richest people this year.It’s been a litany of unfortunate events for the Sea Ltd. founder: The tech selloff, the shutdown of its main e-commerce operation in India and disappointing earnings have tanked the company’s American depository receipts more than 80% from a peak in October. He’s still rich -- worth $4.7 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index -- but no longer enough to make the cutoff for the top 500 on the planet.Traders are preparing for more bad news. The company, which is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings later Tuesday, is expected to post a record loss of more than $740 million, according to the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. Sea’s net loss had already widened in the final three months of last year as the firm sped up its expansion.The downfall showcases the vulnerability of the quick wealth creation from the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic -- when tech giants benefited from greater demand for their services such as Sea’s e-commerce and gaming. Higher interest rates and the tensions surrounding the war in Ukraine are further hurting growth stocks.“Sea is going to see increasing challenges in 2022,” said Shawn Yang, managing director at Blue Lotus Capital, an independent equity research firm in Hong Kong that cut the stock’s target price to $105 from $180 on May 10.The company’s e-commerce sales, its main source of revenue, could come short of its annual guidance of $8.9 billion to $9.1 billion as it faces intensifying competition from rivals including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and as consumers return to offline stores with the easing of Covid restrictions, Yang said.A Sea representative declined to comment for this story.Beyond Li, many tech entrepreneurs who saw their wealth rise on the back of the pandemic-induced growth are being hit hard by the market selloff. Eric Yuan, chief executive officer of Zoom Video Communications Inc., has lost $4.4 billion of wealth this year, while the fortune of Amazon.com Inc.’s Jeff Bezos, the world’s second-richest person, is down almost $58 billion. Ernie Garcia II and Ernie Garcia III, the father-son duo that runs used-car company Carvana Co., have shed $15 billion combined.Sea’s valuation collapse prompted the usually low-profile Li to reach out to his employees in March. In a 900-word internal memo, he told them not to fear and that while the drop is painful, “this is short-term pain that we have to endure to truly maximize our long-term potential.”Analysts generally remain optimistic about Sea’s future even though the stock fell to a two-year low earlier this month. Of the 38 analysts tracked by Bloomberg covering it, 34 recommend buying it. The company’s valuation may begin to rebound as prospects improve with its geographical expansion, according to Nathan Naidu, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.For now, though, the shares remain volatile. After a 32% rebound amid a tech rally in the last two days of last week, they dropped 6.7% Monday. Gang Ye, one of the other company founders, has lost $4.3 billion in wealth this year, while David Chen is no longer a billionaire.“In the current economic environment, the level of anxiety about the effects of anticipated rate hikes by the Fed, along with rising inflation and impact from the Russian - Ukraine war just aren’t good for risky assets such as tech stocks,” BI’s Naidu said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020181421,"gmtCreate":1652587324363,"gmtModify":1676535125572,"author":{"id":"4104550162133600","authorId":"4104550162133600","authorIdStr":"4104550162133600","name":"Punggol123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51f2350f5aa8faa435afc5bd6a314f02","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104550162133600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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