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2022-10-01

Thanks for your insight

Tesla: A New Problem Is Emerging

2022-09-17

$ABC(01288)$🤨

2022-09-28

Thanks for an insightful write-up

Apple: A Bearish Sign For The First Time

2022-10-17

Share your opinion about this news…

Singapore REITs: 3 Red Flags to Check Before You Buy

2022-09-30

$Unilever PLC(UL)$hang in there...

2022-11-10

This is interesting

How Binance, FTX Deal Rocked the Crypto World and Then Collapsed

2022-10-16

Good read.. thank you

"There Will Be Massive Winners": Jeffrey Katzenberg Says Media and Entertainment Industry Will Dazzle

2022-10-04

$Unilever PLC(UL)$it actually improved.. 🙂

2022-11-10

This is interesting. Thank you for sharing

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-06

🤣

Elon Musk, Twitter Held Unsuccessful Talks About a Price Cut for Acquisition

2022-09-28

Can someone explain this and it's correlation to the UK's unfunded tax cuts please?

S&P 500 Bounces Slightly From 2022 Low After Bank of England’s Bond-Buying Plan

2022-09-17

$Unilever PLC(UL)$Wait wait wait...

2022-12-15

Thanks for an interesting article

Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop

2022-11-10

This is interesting

How Binance, FTX Deal Rocked the Crypto World and Then Collapsed

2022-10-17

Thank you for exaining this in simple terms

Singapore REITs: 3 Red Flags to Check Before You Buy

2022-10-01

$Unilever PLC(UL)$😬

2022-09-30

$Unilever PLC(UL)$Hang in there...

2022-09-29

$Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)$This is still maintaining

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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It is interesting reading and learning from your perspective.","listText":"Thank you for sharing. It is interesting reading and learning from your perspective.","text":"Thank you for sharing. It is interesting reading and learning from your perspective.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/297871838871808","repostId":"2429563099","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2429563099","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1713730307,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2429563099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-04-22 04:11","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Technology Hitting The Peak Of The 2024 Market Cycle With Rotation To Value","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2429563099","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The article provides an update on the market outlook for 2024 using the latest Momentum Gauge signals.It discusses the rotation from technology stocks to value stocks and the impact on the market.The article highlights the importance of following money flows and finding the best valuations to avoid major market downturns.The odds of a Fed rate cut in June have dropped to 16.6% down from near certainty of 100% in January and \"higher for longer\" is beginning to show cracks in the market.Money flows are showing increased volatility and movement toward safety and value stocks as investors begin to take profits from technology.","content":"<html><body><ul><li>The article provides an update on the market outlook for 2024 using the latest Momentum Gauge® signals.\n        </li><li>It discusses the rotation from technology stocks to value stocks and the impact on the market.\n        </li><li>The article highlights the importance of following money flows and finding the best valuations to avoid major market downturns.\n        </li><li>The odds of a Fed rate cut in June have dropped to 16.6% down from near certainty of 100% in January and \"higher for longer\" is beginning to show cracks in the market.\n        </li><li>Money flows are showing increased volatility and movement toward safety and value stocks as investors begin to take profits from technology.\n        </li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1020px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/148484371/image_148484371.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/148484371/image_148484371.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/148484371/image_148484371.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/148484371/image_148484371.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/148484371/image_148484371.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/148484371/image_148484371.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/148484371/image_148484371.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/148484371/image_148484371.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/148484371/image_148484371.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>shayes17/E+ via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>This article updates my outlook for 2024 with the latest Momentum Gauge® signals and a revisit of the January Investing Experts Podcast interview with Rena Sherbill at Seeking Alpha. This past April 2nd marked an<span> early negative Momentum Gauge® test signal followed by an official negative daily signal on April 12th. This article builds on prior signal events with more insights on how to benefit from changes in the market momentum conditions.</span></p> <p><strong>S&amp;P 500 weekly gauges </strong></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-1713625833934916.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>www.vmbreakouts.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Last year I shared market topping signals from July that led to the lows in October as illustrated on the S&amp;P 500 weekly gauges above:</p> <p>Head And Shoulders Everywhere As Technology And Real Estate Breakdown</p> <p>That was followed by a November breakout signal and a strong rally to recent March highs.</p> <p>Breakouts Everywhere As Buffett Moves<span> To Record High $157 Billion Cash</span></p> <p>We will revisit these signals, but more importantly discuss where the market may be headed in an uncertain election year.</p> <h2>Technology Hitting The Peak Of The 2024 Market Cycle With Rotation To Value</h2> <blockquote><p>The thing to consider is that we rarely ever see market leaders from the prior year be market leaders for the coming year. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast</p></blockquote> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/11/23/saupload_image-48_0.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Callan Institute</span></p></figcaption></figure><blockquote><p>And by that, I look at the Magnificent Seven over the past two years, they're back to where they were in 2022 at the peak and they had quite the ride. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast</p></blockquote> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-17136198002699597.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Yardeni.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>The mega cap giants have an enormous weighting on the market indices. They are also concentrated in the Technology sector where Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and the rest of the semiconductors like Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Micron (MU) and many others have much larger market caps than other sectors combined. As a result I find it very important to follow and chart the technical indicators of BMO REX MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU) representing the 10 largest stocks in the US stock market.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-17136287997348979.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Twitter.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>These early breakdown signals combined with the AMD and NVDA stock alerts and the Technology sector gauges began to turn negative as early as March.</p> <blockquote><p>We see a lot of great numbers from NVIDIA (NVDA), but investors often forget that last year it lost 67% from the peak. And those kinds of rides can show up again. They're not just one-time events and people take profits and momentum works in both directions. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast</p></blockquote> <p>On the Momentum Gauge chart for Nvidia the signal first turned negative on April 10th and then again on April 17th indicating selling signals after months of very strong buy signals. Traders also use the declining positive MDA values as early warning indicators of weakening momentum.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-17136284635499842.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>www.vmbreakouts.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-17136278179322681.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Twitter.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Similarly, the indicators were turning negative on AMD back on March 19th. This was when Micron had a large earnings beat and the overall Semiconductor picture had not yet turned negative. </p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-17136294018468437.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>www.vmbreakouts.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Since then Semiconductors have completely broken the positive channel from November with (SOXL) down -25.83% in one of the worst weeks ever for semiconductors.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/saupload_SOXLd150547181i_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>FinViz.com VMBreakouts.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><h3>So where is the rotation to value?</h3> <p>Long term portfolios are based on successful value models from published financial research with additional enhancements using the MDA methodology. These value strategies were covered in a recent Seeking Alpha Webinar with Daniel Snyder here:</p> <p>Webinar Replay: JD Henning's Momentum Breakout Models For 2024</p> <p><strong>The January Growth &amp; Dividend</strong> long term buy/hold portfolio is up +15.5% YTD adjusted for dividends and has no representation in the semiconductor stocks. This portfolio is invested in low P/E, low valuation energy and financial stocks with high dividends above 2%.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-171364018714999.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>StockRover.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><strong>The actively traded Premium Portfolio</strong> is up +11.1% YTD and moved to cash on April 12th following the negative S&amp;P 500 gauge signal as part of the rules to avoid major market downturns as it did last week.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-17136407755335958.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>VMBreakouts.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Prior to moving to cash the portfolio was heavily weighted toward Energy and Basic Materials following the Sector Gauge breakout signals from February 15th of these two sectors. Some of the stocks recently held over a week ago have started to show signs of recovery on Friday despite the large market declines.</p> <p>When the Premium Portfolio restarts on the next S&amp;P 500 positive signal it is likely to return to the most positive sectors and stocks with good valuations for long term growth.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/21/43516266-17136942026402807.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Twitter.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>More on the different types of portfolios offered in 2024 is available here:</p> <ul> <li>Part 2: New Selections For 2024 Long-Term Portfolios And Their Performance Vs. The S&amp;P 500 Since 2018</li> <li>Part 1: 5 Stock Portfolios And Their Performance Vs. The S&amp;P 500 Since 2018, And A Huge Gap</li> </ul> <h3>So where are the markets headed in 2024?</h3> <blockquote><p>In 2024, there are things happening that we have not seen in decades. One is we have the largest ongoing quantitative tightening program from the Federal Reserve that we've seen -- ever seen, and combined with the highest interest rates, Fed funds rates in 22 years. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast</p></blockquote> <p>Fed Balance Sheet tightening liquidity back to the lowest level since February 2021 at $7.4 trillion.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/saupload_bfmB76F.jpg\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Bloomberg</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Over the years, I have studied and written at length about the quantitative tightening program and its market effects since its first major implementation in 2018. In short, this Fed balance sheet tightening drains liquidity and at some threshold creates significant market volatility as it did in 2018.</p> <ul> <li>Fed Promises Faster Moves On Largest QT Program In History</li> <li>How Markets May React To Fed's QT Program</li> <li> The Fed Ends The $6 Trillion QE4: How The Markets May React.</li> <li>Value, Momentum Breakout View: Debt Ceiling 'Extraordinary Measures' And Fed's QT Program</li> </ul> <blockquote><p>It isn't the hiking that leads to a market downturn, but it's the period of time when the Federal Reserve keeps the rates higher for longer that has led to market corrections every single time after a rise in the Fed funds rate. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast</p></blockquote> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/9/6/saupload_F0XcoBJWAAcFrkk.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>RIA SimpleVisor</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Back in January there was a 100% certainty of a Fed rate cut by the June FOMC meeting. To the surprise of many, the odds of ANY rate cut in June are now down to 16.6%. This is definitely an unexpected \"higher for longer\" scenario that is adverse to markets. Many companies and consumers have been banking on lower rates and it is especially difficult for smaller businesses and companies burdened to refinance CRE loans at much higher rates.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-17136270107014382.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>CMEgroup</span></p></figcaption></figure><blockquote><p>Another indicator that I think is really substantial for 2024 are the long-term bond funds. If you look at (TMF), I would encourage listeners to take a look at that chart and just look at the amazing similarities to 2022. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast</p></blockquote> <p>Look at the April breakdown in support of the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares bond fund (TMF) this month and you can see again the strong effects on the stock market. When bonds were rising from the October lows and yields were falling this was favorable to a strong Q4 market rally in 2022 and 2023. Now that yields are rising sharply again to November levels the market has begun to pull back.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-17136204193251238.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>FinViz.com VMBreakouts.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Historically from 1950 the weakest 6-month return period of the S&amp;P 500 is from May to October. You can see that pattern clearly in the bond chart above that also closely resembles market performance. Conversely the best 6-month return period has been from November to April. If the pattern follows again for 2024, expect chop with some gains into the summer and another decline into October.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/6/17/43516266-1655464193998992.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>LPL Research</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>So looking one last time at the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) (SPX) Is this a major market top with rapid downward acceleration coming? Initially the weekly chart of the S&amp;P 500 certainly looks ominous like the start of a major decline, but it could be quite similar to the start of 2022. We're starting to see more market outflows and rotations to value sectors.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-17136308012051458.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>FinViz.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>A close examination back to the 2022 top shows that the Fed ended QE 4 and was just beginning the first tightening cycle since 2018. The market volatility changed dramatically when QE was ended. Despite a sharp decline on the January 13th signal the S&amp;P 500 continued to rebound in bearish stair steps with a sequence of frequent lower highs and lower lows that lasted through the lows of November 2022 shown above.</p> <p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF for 2022 topping signals</strong></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/11/5/43516266-16992117193518915.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>FinViz.com VMBreakouts.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>My outlook for 2024 is that the market is heading for more negative choppiness as the Fed continues to hold rates \"higher for longer\" with diminishing odds of a rate cut toward September. We will see many bear bounces and sector rotations similar to 2022 while tightening liquidity and high rates continue to dampen initial market enthusiasm.</p> <p>Our best strategy is to follow the money flows and the best valuations in the market to avoid the largest market downturns and capture the best gains wherever possible. Sometimes that is in Bull funds and sometimes in Bear funds following the signal changes either daily or weekly.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-17136428538785727.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>VMBreakouts.com</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>The US Dollar is one of the best indicators of money flow and investors' desire for safety. As I always say,</p> <blockquote> <p>I never know what the future holds, but I do know that if the money flows are going out, it's a good time to be a little bit more cautious and concentrate on the more positive sectors. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/4/20/43516266-1713620566280405.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Twitter.com</span></p></figcaption></figure> </blockquote> <p>I wish you the very best in all your trading decisions and I am here to help.</p> <div></div> <p>JD Henning</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technology Hitting The Peak Of The 2024 Market Cycle With Rotation To Value</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnology Hitting The Peak Of The 2024 Market Cycle With Rotation To Value\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-22 04:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684995-technology-hitting-the-peak-of-the-2024-market-cycle-with-rotation-to-value><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The article provides an update on the market outlook for 2024 using the latest Momentum Gauge® signals.\n        It discusses the rotation from technology stocks to value stocks and the impact on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684995-technology-hitting-the-peak-of-the-2024-market-cycle-with-rotation-to-value\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/148484371/image_148484371.jpg","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684995-technology-hitting-the-peak-of-the-2024-market-cycle-with-rotation-to-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2429563099","content_text":"The article provides an update on the market outlook for 2024 using the latest Momentum Gauge® signals.\n        It discusses the rotation from technology stocks to value stocks and the impact on the market.\n        The article highlights the importance of following money flows and finding the best valuations to avoid major market downturns.\n        The odds of a Fed rate cut in June have dropped to 16.6% down from near certainty of 100% in January and \"higher for longer\" is beginning to show cracks in the market.\n        Money flows are showing increased volatility and movement toward safety and value stocks as investors begin to take profits from technology.\n           shayes17/E+ via Getty Images Introduction This article updates my outlook for 2024 with the latest Momentum Gauge® signals and a revisit of the January Investing Experts Podcast interview with Rena Sherbill at Seeking Alpha. This past April 2nd marked an early negative Momentum Gauge® test signal followed by an official negative daily signal on April 12th. This article builds on prior signal events with more insights on how to benefit from changes in the market momentum conditions. S&P 500 weekly gauges    www.vmbreakouts.comLast year I shared market topping signals from July that led to the lows in October as illustrated on the S&P 500 weekly gauges above: Head And Shoulders Everywhere As Technology And Real Estate Breakdown That was followed by a November breakout signal and a strong rally to recent March highs. Breakouts Everywhere As Buffett Moves To Record High $157 Billion Cash We will revisit these signals, but more importantly discuss where the market may be headed in an uncertain election year. Technology Hitting The Peak Of The 2024 Market Cycle With Rotation To Value The thing to consider is that we rarely ever see market leaders from the prior year be market leaders for the coming year. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast   Callan InstituteAnd by that, I look at the Magnificent Seven over the past two years, they're back to where they were in 2022 at the peak and they had quite the ride. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast   Yardeni.comThe mega cap giants have an enormous weighting on the market indices. They are also concentrated in the Technology sector where Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and the rest of the semiconductors like Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Micron (MU) and many others have much larger market caps than other sectors combined. As a result I find it very important to follow and chart the technical indicators of BMO REX MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU) representing the 10 largest stocks in the US stock market.   Twitter.comThese early breakdown signals combined with the AMD and NVDA stock alerts and the Technology sector gauges began to turn negative as early as March. We see a lot of great numbers from NVIDIA (NVDA), but investors often forget that last year it lost 67% from the peak. And those kinds of rides can show up again. They're not just one-time events and people take profits and momentum works in both directions. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast On the Momentum Gauge chart for Nvidia the signal first turned negative on April 10th and then again on April 17th indicating selling signals after months of very strong buy signals. Traders also use the declining positive MDA values as early warning indicators of weakening momentum.   www.vmbreakouts.com  Twitter.comSimilarly, the indicators were turning negative on AMD back on March 19th. This was when Micron had a large earnings beat and the overall Semiconductor picture had not yet turned negative.    www.vmbreakouts.comSince then Semiconductors have completely broken the positive channel from November with (SOXL) down -25.83% in one of the worst weeks ever for semiconductors.   FinViz.com VMBreakouts.comSo where is the rotation to value? Long term portfolios are based on successful value models from published financial research with additional enhancements using the MDA methodology. These value strategies were covered in a recent Seeking Alpha Webinar with Daniel Snyder here: Webinar Replay: JD Henning's Momentum Breakout Models For 2024 The January Growth & Dividend long term buy/hold portfolio is up +15.5% YTD adjusted for dividends and has no representation in the semiconductor stocks. This portfolio is invested in low P/E, low valuation energy and financial stocks with high dividends above 2%.   StockRover.comThe actively traded Premium Portfolio is up +11.1% YTD and moved to cash on April 12th following the negative S&P 500 gauge signal as part of the rules to avoid major market downturns as it did last week.   VMBreakouts.comPrior to moving to cash the portfolio was heavily weighted toward Energy and Basic Materials following the Sector Gauge breakout signals from February 15th of these two sectors. Some of the stocks recently held over a week ago have started to show signs of recovery on Friday despite the large market declines. When the Premium Portfolio restarts on the next S&P 500 positive signal it is likely to return to the most positive sectors and stocks with good valuations for long term growth.   Twitter.comMore on the different types of portfolios offered in 2024 is available here:  Part 2: New Selections For 2024 Long-Term Portfolios And Their Performance Vs. The S&P 500 Since 2018 Part 1: 5 Stock Portfolios And Their Performance Vs. The S&P 500 Since 2018, And A Huge Gap  So where are the markets headed in 2024? In 2024, there are things happening that we have not seen in decades. One is we have the largest ongoing quantitative tightening program from the Federal Reserve that we've seen -- ever seen, and combined with the highest interest rates, Fed funds rates in 22 years. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast Fed Balance Sheet tightening liquidity back to the lowest level since February 2021 at $7.4 trillion.   BloombergOver the years, I have studied and written at length about the quantitative tightening program and its market effects since its first major implementation in 2018. In short, this Fed balance sheet tightening drains liquidity and at some threshold creates significant market volatility as it did in 2018.  Fed Promises Faster Moves On Largest QT Program In History How Markets May React To Fed's QT Program  The Fed Ends The $6 Trillion QE4: How The Markets May React. Value, Momentum Breakout View: Debt Ceiling 'Extraordinary Measures' And Fed's QT Program  It isn't the hiking that leads to a market downturn, but it's the period of time when the Federal Reserve keeps the rates higher for longer that has led to market corrections every single time after a rise in the Fed funds rate. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast   RIA SimpleVisorBack in January there was a 100% certainty of a Fed rate cut by the June FOMC meeting. To the surprise of many, the odds of ANY rate cut in June are now down to 16.6%. This is definitely an unexpected \"higher for longer\" scenario that is adverse to markets. Many companies and consumers have been banking on lower rates and it is especially difficult for smaller businesses and companies burdened to refinance CRE loans at much higher rates.   CMEgroupAnother indicator that I think is really substantial for 2024 are the long-term bond funds. If you look at (TMF), I would encourage listeners to take a look at that chart and just look at the amazing similarities to 2022. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast Look at the April breakdown in support of the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares bond fund (TMF) this month and you can see again the strong effects on the stock market. When bonds were rising from the October lows and yields were falling this was favorable to a strong Q4 market rally in 2022 and 2023. Now that yields are rising sharply again to November levels the market has begun to pull back.   FinViz.com VMBreakouts.comHistorically from 1950 the weakest 6-month return period of the S&P 500 is from May to October. You can see that pattern clearly in the bond chart above that also closely resembles market performance. Conversely the best 6-month return period has been from November to April. If the pattern follows again for 2024, expect chop with some gains into the summer and another decline into October.   LPL ResearchSo looking one last time at the S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX) Is this a major market top with rapid downward acceleration coming? Initially the weekly chart of the S&P 500 certainly looks ominous like the start of a major decline, but it could be quite similar to the start of 2022. We're starting to see more market outflows and rotations to value sectors.   FinViz.comA close examination back to the 2022 top shows that the Fed ended QE 4 and was just beginning the first tightening cycle since 2018. The market volatility changed dramatically when QE was ended. Despite a sharp decline on the January 13th signal the S&P 500 continued to rebound in bearish stair steps with a sequence of frequent lower highs and lower lows that lasted through the lows of November 2022 shown above. SPDR S&P 500 ETF for 2022 topping signals   FinViz.com VMBreakouts.comMy outlook for 2024 is that the market is heading for more negative choppiness as the Fed continues to hold rates \"higher for longer\" with diminishing odds of a rate cut toward September. We will see many bear bounces and sector rotations similar to 2022 while tightening liquidity and high rates continue to dampen initial market enthusiasm. Our best strategy is to follow the money flows and the best valuations in the market to avoid the largest market downturns and capture the best gains wherever possible. Sometimes that is in Bull funds and sometimes in Bear funds following the signal changes either daily or weekly.   VMBreakouts.comConclusion The US Dollar is one of the best indicators of money flow and investors' desire for safety. As I always say,  I never know what the future holds, but I do know that if the money flows are going out, it's a good time to be a little bit more cautious and concentrate on the more positive sectors. ~ JD Henning, January Podcast   Twitter.com  I wish you the very best in all your trading decisions and I am here to help.  JD Henning","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":271132045447288,"gmtCreate":1707232130593,"gmtModify":1707232135109,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's see where it goes from here","listText":"Let's see where it goes from here","text":"Let's see where it goes from here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271132045447288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":216654715240472,"gmtCreate":1693927619305,"gmtModify":1693927623565,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Food for thought. This makes sense to me. &nbsp;So, what does it mean? Should I buy ETF or not?Get out of the market?? What do you think?&nbsp;","listText":"Food for thought. This makes sense to me. &nbsp;So, what does it mean? Should I buy ETF or not?Get out of the market?? What do you think?&nbsp;","text":"Food for thought. This makes sense to me. So, what does it mean? Should I buy ETF or not?Get out of the market?? What do you think?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/216654715240472","repostId":"2365054063","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2365054063","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1693919400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2365054063?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-09-05 21:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2365054063","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023.The bifurcation between the top 10 companies, as measured by market capitalization, and the other 490 stocks in the index has created an illusion of market bullishness.As investors change their investing habits from buying individual stocks to the ease of buying a broad index, the inflows of capital unequally shift into the largest-capitalization stocks in the index.Olivier Le Moal/iStock via Getty Images Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023. The question is, why?","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023.</li><li>The bifurcation between the top 10 companies, as measured by market capitalization, and the other 490 stocks in the index has created an illusion of market bullishness.</li><li>As investors change their investing habits from buying individual stocks to the ease of buying a broad index, the inflows of capital unequally shift into the largest-capitalization stocks in the index.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img height=\"949px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1393578238/image_1393578238.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1393578238/image_1393578238.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1393578238/image_1393578238.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1393578238/image_1393578238.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1393578238/image_1393578238.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1393578238/image_1393578238.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1393578238/image_1393578238.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1393578238/image_1393578238.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1393578238/image_1393578238.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Olivier Le Moal/iStock via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023. The question is, why? After all, many other great companies have arguably much better valuations and fundamentals. Yet, those companies continue to lag the market's overall returns as the bifurcation between<span> the mega-cap companies and everything else widens. The chat below clarifies the problem, which compares the market capitalization-weighted index to the equal-weight.</span></p> <p><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/9/5/saupload_Market-Cap-To-Equity-Weight-Index.jpg\"/></figure></p> <p>The bifurcation between the top 10 companies, as measured by market capitalization, and the other 490 stocks in the index has created an illusion of market bullishness. As we discussed just recently in <em><strong>\"Investing In 2024:\"</strong></em></p> <blockquote><p><em>\"The surge in the most hated sectors last year has been the main driver of this year's broad market performance. If we strip out the performance of those three sectors, the market would be near flat on a<span> year-to-date basis.\"</span></em></p></blockquote> <p><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/22/saupload_image-56.png\"/></figure></p> <p>Despite the extremely crowded trade into the three sectors comprised of those ten stocks, we continue to see professional investors crowd into those shares at a record clip.</p> <p><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/9/2/saupload_EQ-SPX-concentrated2308280543.png\"/></figure></p> <p>The question is, why are professional managers seemingly chasing these stocks with reckless abandon?</p> <p>The answer is more simplistic than you may think.</p> <h2><strong>Career Risk And The Passive Effect</strong></h2> <p>For investment managers, generating performance is necessary to limit <em>\"career risk.\"</em> If a manager underperforms their relative benchmark index for very long, they most likely won't have a <em>\"career\"</em> in the investment management business. Currently, there are two drivers for the mega-capitalization stock chase. First, these stocks are highly liquid, and managers can quickly move money into and out without significant price movements.</p> <p>The second is the passive indexing effect.</p> <p>As investors change their investing habits from buying individual stocks to the ease of buying a broad index, the inflows of capital unequally shift into the largest-capitalization stocks in the index. Over the last decade, the inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have exploded.</p> <p><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/9/5/saupload_Growth-of-ETFs.png\"/></figure></p> <p>That ETF issuance surge and the assets' growth under management fuel the performance of the top 10 stocks. As we discussed previously:</p> <blockquote><p><em>\"In other words, out of roughly 1750 ETF's, the top-10 stocks in the index comprise approximately 25% of all issued ETFs. Such makes sense, given that f<strong>or an ETF issuer to \"sell\" you a product, they need good performance. Moreover, in a late-stage market cycle driven by momentum, it is not uncommon to find the same \"best performing\" stocks proliferating many</strong> <strong>ETFs.\"</strong></em></p></blockquote> <p>Therefore, as investors buy shares of a passive ETF, the shares of all the underlying companies must be purchased. Given the massive inflows into ETFs over the last year and subsequent inflows into the top-10 stocks, the mirage of market stability is not surprising.</p> <p>As shown, for each $1 invested in the S&amp;P 500 index, $0.32 flows directly into the top 10 stocks. The remaining $0.68 is divided between the remaining 490 stocks. This <em>\"passive indexing effect\"</em> has changed the market dynamics over the last decade.</p> <p><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/5/18/saupload_Passive-Index-Effect-Top-10-MegaCap-.jpg\"/></figure></p> <p>However, the <em>\"passive effect\"</em> is only one reason portfolio managers hide in these massive companies.</p> <p>The other reason is <em>\"safety.\"</em></p> <h2><strong>Safety In Liquidity</strong></h2> <p>If and when the economy slips into a recession, earnings and revenue will decline for companies. Given the current level of interest rates, inflation, and reversal of monetary liquidity post-pandemic, the risk of recession is higher than normal. Higher interest rates, in particular, currently pose the largest threat to small and medium-sized companies. As Andrew Lapthorne of Societe Generale recently noted:</p> <blockquote><p><em>\"The largest 10% of companies represent 62% of the overall non-financial market cap of the S&amp;P 1500, so from a market perspective, it would appear that interest rates are not yet affecting the balance-sheet stress of the market overall. But lower down the size scale, things are tough and getting tougher.</em> <em>Interest coverage at the bottom 50% of S&amp;P 1500 companies and the smallest quoted companies (as listed in the Russell 2000 index) falling sharply from low levels.\"</em></p></blockquote> <p><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/9/2/saupload_Interest-Ratio-Coverage.png\"/></figure></p> <p>These smaller companies do not have access to the capital markets as easily as larger-capitalization companies and do not have the massive cash balances the mega-cap companies hold.</p> <blockquote><p><em>\"It stands to reason that smaller quoted companies in the Russell 2000 index, as well as unquoted companies, don't have as much access to corporate bond issuance so have been unable to lock into the near-zero long-dated fixed borrowings that the larger companies have.\"</em></p></blockquote> <p><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/9/2/saupload_Debt-Schedule.png\"/></figure></p> <p>As that debt wall of term loans hits over the next few years, higher borrowing costs are going to raise the risk of defaults and bankruptcies. While we may not be in a recession yet, doesn't mean it can't happen. As noted by Simon White via Bloomberg, tightening financial conditions have seen corporate bankruptcies rise by 71% since last year. If financial conditions are still elevated over the next few years, that bankruptcy risk increases markedly.</p> <p><figure><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/9/2/saupload_Bankruptcy-Analysis.png\"/></figure></p> <p>As Albert concludes:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>\"Contrary to what the mega-cap valuations might suggest, smaller companies remain the beating heart of the US economy - maybe the mega-caps are more like vampires sucking the lifeblood out of other companies. It seems the lights are going out all over the US smaller-cap corporate sector.</em></p> <p><em>They weren't able to lock into long-term loans at almost zero interest rates and pile it high in the money markets at variable rates. Ultimately the pain for US small- and mid-cap companies will trigger the recession most economists are now giving up on, and hey, guess what? <strong>I think we'll soon find out that even the large- and mega-cap stocks might not be immune to the indirect recessionary impact of higher interest rates after all.</strong>\"</em></p> </blockquote> <p>Portfolio managers must chase the market higher or potentially suffer career risk. <strong>Therefore, the easiest place to allocate cash is the mega-capitalization companies with low risk of bankruptcy or default and extremely high liquidity.</strong></p> <p>I agree with Albert that current exuberance in the markets and the belief of a <em>\"no landing\"</em> scenario are likely largely overblown. Substantially tighter financial conditions remain the biggest risk to the markets. Therefore, when the Fed begins cutting rates to fix what it broke, we will see the rotation to safety occurring simultaneously.</p> <h2><strong>Mega-Cap Will Dominate Until It Doesn't</strong></h2> <p>For now, there is little to deter portfolio managers from chasing the mega-cap stocks for performance reporting purposes. As noted, a big divergence between the manager's performance and the benchmark index will lead to <em>\"career risk.\"</em> However, the problem is compounded by retail investors piling money into passive ETFs.</p> <p>There is a basic belief by investors that <strong><em>\"for every buyer, there is a seller.\"</em></strong></p> <p>However, the correct statement is:</p> <blockquote><p><strong><em>\"For every buyer, there is a seller….at a specific price.\"</em></strong></p></blockquote> <p>In other words, when the selling begins, those wanting to <em>\"sell\"</em> overrun those willing to <em>\"buy.\"</em> Therefore, prices drop until a <em>\"buyer\"</em> is willing to step in.</p> <p><strong>That surge in selling pressure creates a <em>\"liquidity vacuum\"</em> between the current price and a <em>\"buyer\"</em> willing to execute.</strong> In other words, just as professional managers are trying to sell their shares of Apple (AAPL), the other 343 ETFs that own Apple are vying for the same scarce pool of buyers in a declining market.</p> <p>Furthermore, advisors are also actively migrating portfolio management to passive ETFs for some, if not all, of the asset allocation equation. The rise of index funds has turned everyone into <em>\"asset class pickers\"</em> instead of stock pickers. However, just because individuals are choosing to <em>\"buy baskets</em>\" of stocks rather than individual securities, <strong>it is not a <em>\"passive\"</em> choice but rather <em>\"active management\"</em> in a different form.</strong></p> <p>With the concentration of risk in a handful of stocks, the markets are set for a rather vicious cycle. The concentration of holdings and the subsequent lack of liquidity suggest reversals will not be a slow and methodical process. <strong>Rather, it will be a stampede with little regard for price, valuation, or fundamental measures as the exit narrows.</strong></p> <p>I suspect that March 2020 was just a <em>\"sampling\"</em> of what will happen when the next <em>\"real\"</em> bear market begins.</p> <p>Original Post</p> <div></div> <p><strong>Editor's Note:</strong> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Mega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMega-Cap Stocks Continue To Dominate. But Why?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-05 21:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4633110-mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023.The bifurcation between the top 10 companies, as measured by market capitalization, and the other 490 stocks in the index has created an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4633110-mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1393578238/image_1393578238.jpg","relate_stocks":{"FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4576":"AR","AAPL":"苹果","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","BK4575":"芯片概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4633110-mega-cap-stocks-continue-to-dominate-but-why","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2365054063","content_text":"Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023.The bifurcation between the top 10 companies, as measured by market capitalization, and the other 490 stocks in the index has created an illusion of market bullishness.As investors change their investing habits from buying individual stocks to the ease of buying a broad index, the inflows of capital unequally shift into the largest-capitalization stocks in the index.Olivier Le Moal/iStock via Getty Images Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023. The question is, why? After all, many other great companies have arguably much better valuations and fundamentals. Yet, those companies continue to lag the market's overall returns as the bifurcation between the mega-cap companies and everything else widens. The chat below clarifies the problem, which compares the market capitalization-weighted index to the equal-weight.  The bifurcation between the top 10 companies, as measured by market capitalization, and the other 490 stocks in the index has created an illusion of market bullishness. As we discussed just recently in \"Investing In 2024:\" \"The surge in the most hated sectors last year has been the main driver of this year's broad market performance. If we strip out the performance of those three sectors, the market would be near flat on a year-to-date basis.\"  Despite the extremely crowded trade into the three sectors comprised of those ten stocks, we continue to see professional investors crowd into those shares at a record clip.  The question is, why are professional managers seemingly chasing these stocks with reckless abandon? The answer is more simplistic than you may think. Career Risk And The Passive Effect For investment managers, generating performance is necessary to limit \"career risk.\" If a manager underperforms their relative benchmark index for very long, they most likely won't have a \"career\" in the investment management business. Currently, there are two drivers for the mega-capitalization stock chase. First, these stocks are highly liquid, and managers can quickly move money into and out without significant price movements. The second is the passive indexing effect. As investors change their investing habits from buying individual stocks to the ease of buying a broad index, the inflows of capital unequally shift into the largest-capitalization stocks in the index. Over the last decade, the inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have exploded.  That ETF issuance surge and the assets' growth under management fuel the performance of the top 10 stocks. As we discussed previously: \"In other words, out of roughly 1750 ETF's, the top-10 stocks in the index comprise approximately 25% of all issued ETFs. Such makes sense, given that for an ETF issuer to \"sell\" you a product, they need good performance. Moreover, in a late-stage market cycle driven by momentum, it is not uncommon to find the same \"best performing\" stocks proliferating many ETFs.\" Therefore, as investors buy shares of a passive ETF, the shares of all the underlying companies must be purchased. Given the massive inflows into ETFs over the last year and subsequent inflows into the top-10 stocks, the mirage of market stability is not surprising. As shown, for each $1 invested in the S&P 500 index, $0.32 flows directly into the top 10 stocks. The remaining $0.68 is divided between the remaining 490 stocks. This \"passive indexing effect\" has changed the market dynamics over the last decade.  However, the \"passive effect\" is only one reason portfolio managers hide in these massive companies. The other reason is \"safety.\" Safety In Liquidity If and when the economy slips into a recession, earnings and revenue will decline for companies. Given the current level of interest rates, inflation, and reversal of monetary liquidity post-pandemic, the risk of recession is higher than normal. Higher interest rates, in particular, currently pose the largest threat to small and medium-sized companies. As Andrew Lapthorne of Societe Generale recently noted: \"The largest 10% of companies represent 62% of the overall non-financial market cap of the S&P 1500, so from a market perspective, it would appear that interest rates are not yet affecting the balance-sheet stress of the market overall. But lower down the size scale, things are tough and getting tougher. Interest coverage at the bottom 50% of S&P 1500 companies and the smallest quoted companies (as listed in the Russell 2000 index) falling sharply from low levels.\"  These smaller companies do not have access to the capital markets as easily as larger-capitalization companies and do not have the massive cash balances the mega-cap companies hold. \"It stands to reason that smaller quoted companies in the Russell 2000 index, as well as unquoted companies, don't have as much access to corporate bond issuance so have been unable to lock into the near-zero long-dated fixed borrowings that the larger companies have.\"  As that debt wall of term loans hits over the next few years, higher borrowing costs are going to raise the risk of defaults and bankruptcies. While we may not be in a recession yet, doesn't mean it can't happen. As noted by Simon White via Bloomberg, tightening financial conditions have seen corporate bankruptcies rise by 71% since last year. If financial conditions are still elevated over the next few years, that bankruptcy risk increases markedly.  As Albert concludes:  \"Contrary to what the mega-cap valuations might suggest, smaller companies remain the beating heart of the US economy - maybe the mega-caps are more like vampires sucking the lifeblood out of other companies. It seems the lights are going out all over the US smaller-cap corporate sector. They weren't able to lock into long-term loans at almost zero interest rates and pile it high in the money markets at variable rates. Ultimately the pain for US small- and mid-cap companies will trigger the recession most economists are now giving up on, and hey, guess what? I think we'll soon find out that even the large- and mega-cap stocks might not be immune to the indirect recessionary impact of higher interest rates after all.\"  Portfolio managers must chase the market higher or potentially suffer career risk. Therefore, the easiest place to allocate cash is the mega-capitalization companies with low risk of bankruptcy or default and extremely high liquidity. I agree with Albert that current exuberance in the markets and the belief of a \"no landing\" scenario are likely largely overblown. Substantially tighter financial conditions remain the biggest risk to the markets. Therefore, when the Fed begins cutting rates to fix what it broke, we will see the rotation to safety occurring simultaneously. Mega-Cap Will Dominate Until It Doesn't For now, there is little to deter portfolio managers from chasing the mega-cap stocks for performance reporting purposes. As noted, a big divergence between the manager's performance and the benchmark index will lead to \"career risk.\" However, the problem is compounded by retail investors piling money into passive ETFs. There is a basic belief by investors that \"for every buyer, there is a seller.\" However, the correct statement is: \"For every buyer, there is a seller….at a specific price.\" In other words, when the selling begins, those wanting to \"sell\" overrun those willing to \"buy.\" Therefore, prices drop until a \"buyer\" is willing to step in. That surge in selling pressure creates a \"liquidity vacuum\" between the current price and a \"buyer\" willing to execute. In other words, just as professional managers are trying to sell their shares of Apple (AAPL), the other 343 ETFs that own Apple are vying for the same scarce pool of buyers in a declining market. Furthermore, advisors are also actively migrating portfolio management to passive ETFs for some, if not all, of the asset allocation equation. The rise of index funds has turned everyone into \"asset class pickers\" instead of stock pickers. However, just because individuals are choosing to \"buy baskets\" of stocks rather than individual securities, it is not a \"passive\" choice but rather \"active management\" in a different form. With the concentration of risk in a handful of stocks, the markets are set for a rather vicious cycle. The concentration of holdings and the subsequent lack of liquidity suggest reversals will not be a slow and methodical process. Rather, it will be a stampede with little regard for price, valuation, or fundamental measures as the exit narrows. I suspect that March 2020 was just a \"sampling\" of what will happen when the next \"real\" bear market begins. Original Post  Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190085112057864,"gmtCreate":1687433018686,"gmtModify":1687433021951,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Food for thought","listText":"Food for thought","text":"Food for thought","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190085112057864","repostId":"1150488641","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150488641","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687447634,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150488641?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Stocks to Sell Immediately Before the Bubble Bursts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150488641","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Deciding on which stocks to sell before a bubble burst depends on first defining where bubbles exist","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Deciding on which stocks to sell before a bubble burst depends on first defining where bubbles exist. That’s difficult to predict as the U.S. economy continues to confound even the best economic minds. That’s not to say there aren’t high-risk bubble stocks to sell. There are. In fact, despite positive signs, bubbles continue to exist everywhere. Macroeconomic factors suggest the U.S. economy is not healthy overall. U.S. debt remains sky-high at the government level. The deficit is growing and recent theatrics in Congress haven’t changed anything for the better. In addition, bubbles extend to credit card debt, car loan debt, student loan debt, the housing market, the commercial real estate market, and tech stocks that have propped up a surging stock market. A severe recession remains entirely possible. Whether that occurs or not it makes sense to drop riskier stocks currently. </p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">High-Risk Bubble Stocks: Wells Fargo (WFC)</h2><p>Investors should seriously consider dropping <strong>Wells Fargo</strong> (NYSE:<strong><u>WFC</u></strong>). Trust in banks has taken a hit in 2023. Among big banks, only <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong> (NYSE:<strong><u>JPM</u></strong>) has been spared in 2023. That’s largely due to its size and the leading role it played when regional banks collapsed months earlier. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The point here is that Wells Fargo was already suffering a lack of trust prior to the most recent meltdown. The company already got caught for creating fake accounts in order to make its operations appear stronger than they were. It’s a wild and concerning thing to do for any bank, especially one of the largest in the U.S. The bank was trying to put that scandal behind it. It clearly did a poor job as it recently was fined $1 billion for overstating its progress in cleaning up that scandal. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">I believe it’s fair to state that Wells Fargo is not a trustworthy bank at this point. Given that you shouldn’t inherently trust banks overall, that’s probably saying something. Again, consider Wells Fargo a high-risk bubble stock to sell now.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">High-Risk Bubble Stocks: Regions Financial (RF)</h2><p><strong>Regions Financial</strong> (NYSE:<strong><u>RF</u></strong>) is a regional bank and stock that offers a catch-22 in terms of investing. It’s also another high-risk bubble stock to sell. The company appears to be doing well based on its first-quarter results. Earnings are up, revenues increased by 22%, and it seems to be heading toward a better place. That’s the magic of increased interest rates that increase net interest income. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regions Financial serves the southeast, deep south, and midwest. But it is most concentrated across Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia all happen to be among the states that struggle the most with credit card debt. So, with credit card debt above $1 trillion and a clear bubble at hand, Regions Financial is at risk. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Commercial real estate and mortgage loans make up roughly one-third of its outstanding loans. Those are bubbles of their own. The overall picture for RF stock is a high-risk bank exposed to serious bubbles that continue to brew.  </p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">High-Risk Bubble Stocks: SoFi Technologies (SOFI)</h2><p>The clearest reason to sell<strong> SoFi Technologies</strong> (NASDAQ:<strong><u>SOFI</u></strong>) stock today is simply that it has gotten too hot, too quickly. The stock was one of the big winners to emerge from the debt ceiling deal. That deal set a clear date for the resumption of federal student loan payments. SoFi Technologies, which holds significant student loans, is a clear beneficiary of the deal then. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Share prices basically doubled due to the discussions and deal. So, investors should sell it in order to simply capture their profit. But that’s not really why I’m bearish on SOFI stock. Instead, I believe that SoFi Technologies now suffers from the real risk that the restart of repayments won’t be as strong as analysts believe. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">There’s a very real risk that strained student loan holders will default in record numbers in the coming months. They were already defaulting at record rates prior to the pause. They have less money now than they did then so it only makes sense that things are going t get worse. </p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)</h2><p>I’ve written about<strong> Vornado Realty Trust </strong>(NYSE:<strong><u>VNO</u></strong>) as a stock to avoid several times recently. I continue to believe it should be avoided today. The commercial real estate firm is heavily concentrated across office spaces in New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. It should be high on any list of commercial real estate bubble stocks. Vornado Realty Trust has postponed dividend payments until the end of 2023. REIT stocks use high-yield dividends to lure investors. When they pay things are great. It was paying a very high 11%. That income now no longer exists. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In the first quarter, Vornado’s net income was five-fold. San Francisco has recently been in the headlines as hotels close after failing to make payments. Cracks are emerging in the commercial real estate sector. Vornado’s markets also suffer from being in geographies in which workers have much more sway. Return-to-office mandates aren’t going to go over well in San Francisco, New York, and Chicago. It all spells continued trouble and bigger losses. </p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Nvidia (NVDA)</h2><p>If there is a single tech stock at the most risk, <strong>Nvidia</strong> (NASDAQ:<strong><u>NVDA</u></strong>) has to be it. The emergence of AI has catalyzed a recent surge across the tech industry. That surge has been powerful enough to raise markets overall, accounting for a great percentage of overall market gains of late. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Nvidia’s chips have emerged to be a keystone to the generative AI progress that promises to rapidly increase productivity and revenues along with it. The firm’s huge Q1 earnings release and second-quarter guidance took it from a potential AI champion to the clear winner. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Concerns of an AI bubble cropped up as soon as earnings were released. They died down and NVDA shares jumped higher again. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">I’m not saying investors should dump Nvidia now. I have no way to accurately say it’s going to cool off. Honestly, I thought it would stay at $390 but I was wrong. It’s now at $430. Yet, more and more bears are emerging drawing comparisons between AI and the Dot com bubble. It’s almost moot to say take profits now. I’m sure most readers will have done that if they’ve been lucky enough to buy it months ago. Yet, it’s fair to warn that buying in now is clearly risky. </p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Armour Residential REIT (ARR)</h2><p><strong>Armour Residential REIT’s</strong> (NYSE:<strong><u>ARR</u></strong>) price chart tells investors a great deal about the stock. Inflation concerns that cropped up in late 2021 and culminated in rate hikes beginning in March of 2022 correlate nicely with its arc. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Share prices have more than halved since then. Funnily enough, the company was arguably doing worse prior to Fed rate hikes. Its net loss in the first quarter of 2022 totaled $66.43 million. It narrowed to $34.35 million in the first quarter of this year. That was mostly on account of securities trading discrepancies during those two respective periods. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Net interest income dropped by a factor of three. That means interest rate increases are hurting the firm.  What’s particularly troublesome is that the company almost brags about raising $181 million in capital by issuing 30 million new shares in the first quarter. There are only 190 million in total. That should be dilutive. The dividend yielding 18.4% is a siren song that investors should avoid. Vornado Realty Trust, just above, should tell investors all they need to know in that regard. </p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">UBS Group (UBS)</h2><p><strong>UBS Group</strong> (NYSE:<strong><u>UBS</u></strong>) emerged as a winner as U.S. regional bank meltdown contagion spread to Europe and claimed <strong>Credit Suisse</strong>. UBS was forced to save Credit Suisse by regulators. It initially bristled at the prospect of doing so but the result is that there is no one single European money manager for the global elite. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The forced merger will result in tens of thousands of jobs lost as UBS sheds Credit Suisse employees in the aftermath. As sympathetic as I am to them, that’s no reason to suggest it’s time to sell UBS. Frankly, it should benefit share prices due to the implied increase in efficiency. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The reason is that it isn’t a well-run bank despite its association with the global elite and a previously untouchable Swiss banking sector. Multiple financial metrics indicate real distress. In particular, UBS’ equity-to-asset ratio is very weak. The lower the ratio, the more likely a bank is to be reliant on debt financing. UBS’ ratio is worse than 9 out of 10 banks. Further, it simply doesn’t create value as revealed by a return on investment of 0%.  </p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Stocks to Sell Immediately Before the Bubble Bursts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Stocks to Sell Immediately Before the Bubble Bursts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-22 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/06/7-stocks-to-sell-immediately-before-the-bubble-bursts-high-risk-bubble-stocks/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Deciding on which stocks to sell before a bubble burst depends on first defining where bubbles exist. That’s difficult to predict as the U.S. economy continues to confound even the best economic minds...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/06/7-stocks-to-sell-immediately-before-the-bubble-bursts-high-risk-bubble-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/06/7-stocks-to-sell-immediately-before-the-bubble-bursts-high-risk-bubble-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150488641","content_text":"Deciding on which stocks to sell before a bubble burst depends on first defining where bubbles exist. That’s difficult to predict as the U.S. economy continues to confound even the best economic minds. That’s not to say there aren’t high-risk bubble stocks to sell. There are. In fact, despite positive signs, bubbles continue to exist everywhere. Macroeconomic factors suggest the U.S. economy is not healthy overall. U.S. debt remains sky-high at the government level. The deficit is growing and recent theatrics in Congress haven’t changed anything for the better. In addition, bubbles extend to credit card debt, car loan debt, student loan debt, the housing market, the commercial real estate market, and tech stocks that have propped up a surging stock market. A severe recession remains entirely possible. Whether that occurs or not it makes sense to drop riskier stocks currently. High-Risk Bubble Stocks: Wells Fargo (WFC)Investors should seriously consider dropping Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC). Trust in banks has taken a hit in 2023. Among big banks, only JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) has been spared in 2023. That’s largely due to its size and the leading role it played when regional banks collapsed months earlier. The point here is that Wells Fargo was already suffering a lack of trust prior to the most recent meltdown. The company already got caught for creating fake accounts in order to make its operations appear stronger than they were. It’s a wild and concerning thing to do for any bank, especially one of the largest in the U.S. The bank was trying to put that scandal behind it. It clearly did a poor job as it recently was fined $1 billion for overstating its progress in cleaning up that scandal. I believe it’s fair to state that Wells Fargo is not a trustworthy bank at this point. Given that you shouldn’t inherently trust banks overall, that’s probably saying something. Again, consider Wells Fargo a high-risk bubble stock to sell now.High-Risk Bubble Stocks: Regions Financial (RF)Regions Financial (NYSE:RF) is a regional bank and stock that offers a catch-22 in terms of investing. It’s also another high-risk bubble stock to sell. The company appears to be doing well based on its first-quarter results. Earnings are up, revenues increased by 22%, and it seems to be heading toward a better place. That’s the magic of increased interest rates that increase net interest income. Regions Financial serves the southeast, deep south, and midwest. But it is most concentrated across Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia all happen to be among the states that struggle the most with credit card debt. So, with credit card debt above $1 trillion and a clear bubble at hand, Regions Financial is at risk. Commercial real estate and mortgage loans make up roughly one-third of its outstanding loans. Those are bubbles of their own. The overall picture for RF stock is a high-risk bank exposed to serious bubbles that continue to brew.  High-Risk Bubble Stocks: SoFi Technologies (SOFI)The clearest reason to sell SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) stock today is simply that it has gotten too hot, too quickly. The stock was one of the big winners to emerge from the debt ceiling deal. That deal set a clear date for the resumption of federal student loan payments. SoFi Technologies, which holds significant student loans, is a clear beneficiary of the deal then. Share prices basically doubled due to the discussions and deal. So, investors should sell it in order to simply capture their profit. But that’s not really why I’m bearish on SOFI stock. Instead, I believe that SoFi Technologies now suffers from the real risk that the restart of repayments won’t be as strong as analysts believe. There’s a very real risk that strained student loan holders will default in record numbers in the coming months. They were already defaulting at record rates prior to the pause. They have less money now than they did then so it only makes sense that things are going t get worse. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)I’ve written about Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO) as a stock to avoid several times recently. I continue to believe it should be avoided today. The commercial real estate firm is heavily concentrated across office spaces in New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. It should be high on any list of commercial real estate bubble stocks. Vornado Realty Trust has postponed dividend payments until the end of 2023. REIT stocks use high-yield dividends to lure investors. When they pay things are great. It was paying a very high 11%. That income now no longer exists. In the first quarter, Vornado’s net income was five-fold. San Francisco has recently been in the headlines as hotels close after failing to make payments. Cracks are emerging in the commercial real estate sector. Vornado’s markets also suffer from being in geographies in which workers have much more sway. Return-to-office mandates aren’t going to go over well in San Francisco, New York, and Chicago. It all spells continued trouble and bigger losses. Nvidia (NVDA)If there is a single tech stock at the most risk, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has to be it. The emergence of AI has catalyzed a recent surge across the tech industry. That surge has been powerful enough to raise markets overall, accounting for a great percentage of overall market gains of late. Nvidia’s chips have emerged to be a keystone to the generative AI progress that promises to rapidly increase productivity and revenues along with it. The firm’s huge Q1 earnings release and second-quarter guidance took it from a potential AI champion to the clear winner. Concerns of an AI bubble cropped up as soon as earnings were released. They died down and NVDA shares jumped higher again. I’m not saying investors should dump Nvidia now. I have no way to accurately say it’s going to cool off. Honestly, I thought it would stay at $390 but I was wrong. It’s now at $430. Yet, more and more bears are emerging drawing comparisons between AI and the Dot com bubble. It’s almost moot to say take profits now. I’m sure most readers will have done that if they’ve been lucky enough to buy it months ago. Yet, it’s fair to warn that buying in now is clearly risky. Armour Residential REIT (ARR)Armour Residential REIT’s (NYSE:ARR) price chart tells investors a great deal about the stock. Inflation concerns that cropped up in late 2021 and culminated in rate hikes beginning in March of 2022 correlate nicely with its arc. Share prices have more than halved since then. Funnily enough, the company was arguably doing worse prior to Fed rate hikes. Its net loss in the first quarter of 2022 totaled $66.43 million. It narrowed to $34.35 million in the first quarter of this year. That was mostly on account of securities trading discrepancies during those two respective periods. Net interest income dropped by a factor of three. That means interest rate increases are hurting the firm.  What’s particularly troublesome is that the company almost brags about raising $181 million in capital by issuing 30 million new shares in the first quarter. There are only 190 million in total. That should be dilutive. The dividend yielding 18.4% is a siren song that investors should avoid. Vornado Realty Trust, just above, should tell investors all they need to know in that regard. UBS Group (UBS)UBS Group (NYSE:UBS) emerged as a winner as U.S. regional bank meltdown contagion spread to Europe and claimed Credit Suisse. UBS was forced to save Credit Suisse by regulators. It initially bristled at the prospect of doing so but the result is that there is no one single European money manager for the global elite. The forced merger will result in tens of thousands of jobs lost as UBS sheds Credit Suisse employees in the aftermath. As sympathetic as I am to them, that’s no reason to suggest it’s time to sell UBS. Frankly, it should benefit share prices due to the implied increase in efficiency. The reason is that it isn’t a well-run bank despite its association with the global elite and a previously untouchable Swiss banking sector. Multiple financial metrics indicate real distress. In particular, UBS’ equity-to-asset ratio is very weak. The lower the ratio, the more likely a bank is to be reliant on debt financing. UBS’ ratio is worse than 9 out of 10 banks. Further, it simply doesn’t create value as revealed by a return on investment of 0%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190082892607608,"gmtCreate":1687432477153,"gmtModify":1687432481014,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting...","listText":"Interesting...","text":"Interesting...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190082892607608","repostId":"1129801578","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129801578","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687424680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129801578?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 17:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Retail Investors Set New Record, Pour $1.5B Into Single Stocks In A Week — Tesla, Apple, Nvidia Get Bulk Of Inflows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129801578","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSMost of the inflow into single stocks reportedly went into Tesla, Apple and Nvidia.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h4 style=\"text-align: start;\">ZINGER KEY POINTS</h4><ul><li><p><strong>Most of the inflow into single stocks reportedly went into Tesla, Apple and Nvidia.</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Nvidia has registered over 200% gains since the beginning of the year while Tesla has witnessed over 140% rise.</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Analysts have sounded out alarms about the possibility of a correction.</strong></p></li></ul><p>Retail investors appear to be unperturbed by the strong momentum that equity markets witnessed so far into the year and are reluctant to take a break from infusing fresh funds into stocks.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to data compiled by <strong>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</strong> strategist <strong>Peng Cheng, </strong>the category of non-professional investors bought a whopping $1.5 billion of single stocks in the week ending Tuesday, marking an all-time high, reported Bloomberg.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Most of the inflow into single stocks went into just three names — <strong>Tesla Inc</strong>, <strong>Apple Inc </strong>and <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong>, which accounted for 43% of the <strong>S&amp;P 500&#39;s </strong>gains this year, the report said.</p><p>Nvidia has registered over 200% gains since the beginning of the year while Tesla has witnessed over 140% rise during the period. Apple shares have gained over 47% on a year-to-date basis. At the same time, the S&amp;P 500 has risen just over 14% while the Nasdaq Composite has gained about 30% in 2023, according to Benzinga Pro.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Skepticism:</strong> Much of the rally this year was a result of AI-led optimism. Retail investors jumped on the wagon not intending to be left behind after institutions piled into such stocks. What is noteworthy is the fact that the rally came in the midst of a banking crisis in the U.S., consecutive rate hikes by the <strong>Federal Reserve</strong> to tackle decades-high inflation and a lingering debt ceiling crisis that almost pushed the government into default.</p><p>Analysts, however, are wary of the momentum and have repeatedly sounded out alarms about the possibility of a correction. For instance, <strong>Morgan Stanley’s</strong> top equity strategist <strong>Mike Wilson</strong> recently reiterated his year-end target of 3,900 for the S&amp;P 500 while warning that a profit recession is still underway. “Inflation is going to come down. It’s not going to be good for stocks because that is where the earnings power has been coming from,” said Wilson.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Retail Investors Set New Record, Pour $1.5B Into Single Stocks In A Week — Tesla, Apple, Nvidia Get Bulk Of Inflows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRetail Investors Set New Record, Pour $1.5B Into Single Stocks In A Week — Tesla, Apple, Nvidia Get Bulk Of Inflows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-22 17:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/06/32959895/retail-investors-set-new-record-pour-1-5b-into-single-stocks-in-a-week-tesla-apple-nvidia-get-bu><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSMost of the inflow into single stocks reportedly went into Tesla, Apple and Nvidia.Nvidia has registered over 200% gains since the beginning of the year while Tesla has witnessed over...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/06/32959895/retail-investors-set-new-record-pour-1-5b-into-single-stocks-in-a-week-tesla-apple-nvidia-get-bu\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/06/32959895/retail-investors-set-new-record-pour-1-5b-into-single-stocks-in-a-week-tesla-apple-nvidia-get-bu","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129801578","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSMost of the inflow into single stocks reportedly went into Tesla, Apple and Nvidia.Nvidia has registered over 200% gains since the beginning of the year while Tesla has witnessed over 140% rise.Analysts have sounded out alarms about the possibility of a correction.Retail investors appear to be unperturbed by the strong momentum that equity markets witnessed so far into the year and are reluctant to take a break from infusing fresh funds into stocks.According to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Peng Cheng, the category of non-professional investors bought a whopping $1.5 billion of single stocks in the week ending Tuesday, marking an all-time high, reported Bloomberg.Most of the inflow into single stocks went into just three names — Tesla Inc, Apple Inc and NVIDIA Corp, which accounted for 43% of the S&P 500's gains this year, the report said.Nvidia has registered over 200% gains since the beginning of the year while Tesla has witnessed over 140% rise during the period. Apple shares have gained over 47% on a year-to-date basis. At the same time, the S&P 500 has risen just over 14% while the Nasdaq Composite has gained about 30% in 2023, according to Benzinga Pro.Skepticism: Much of the rally this year was a result of AI-led optimism. Retail investors jumped on the wagon not intending to be left behind after institutions piled into such stocks. What is noteworthy is the fact that the rally came in the midst of a banking crisis in the U.S., consecutive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to tackle decades-high inflation and a lingering debt ceiling crisis that almost pushed the government into default.Analysts, however, are wary of the momentum and have repeatedly sounded out alarms about the possibility of a correction. For instance, Morgan Stanley’s top equity strategist Mike Wilson recently reiterated his year-end target of 3,900 for the S&P 500 while warning that a profit recession is still underway. “Inflation is going to come down. It’s not going to be good for stocks because that is where the earnings power has been coming from,” said Wilson.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187048537161808,"gmtCreate":1686705422596,"gmtModify":1686705427608,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Food for thought...","listText":"Food for thought...","text":"Food for thought...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187048537161808","repostId":"2343567514","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2343567514","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1686704403,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2343567514?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-14 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2343567514","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Douglas Rissing The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the Fed to revise its summary of economic projections to show a higher inflation outlook and more rate hikes on the dot plot.</p><p>This means that yields across the curve are likely to stay elevated and move higher in the months ahead at a time when liquidity is now being withdrawn from the overall market and equities are dangerously overvalued.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2120bacd7ae744d7a9b26b91f6d1a51d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><h2>More Rate Hikes</h2><p>The market is not predicting a June rate hike, with the odds at just 10% as of this writing, and it seems unlikely that Fed will try and surprise the market, given its history. But Fed Fund futures are pricing a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike by July. With the next FOMC meeting coming at the end of July, the Fed will have more data to assess its projected rate path. However, given the hotter core CPI and searing labor market reports, it will probably mean that the dot plot will reflect another rate hike or two in 2023.</p><p>The reason is that core inflation is expected to remain sticky, and the Cleveland Fed estimates Core CPI for June at 5.1%. This means the chance the Fed is done raising rates seems slim at this point, and that will likely be reflected in the dot plots when the Summary of Economic Projections comes out.</p><p>Additionally, headline CPI on a non-seasonal adjusted basis rose by 0.3% in May. That has inflation rising at a 4.4% annualized rate of change over the past three and six months. This does suggest that it may be challenging to get inflation down now that it is entering this 3% to 4% range. It&#39;s important to remember that CPI on a year over year is measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, and using a seasonally adjusted CPI metric to annualize the rate of change may understate actual inflation due to changes in seasonal adjustments, which happened in 2022.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538b5d9f6f2e8956f767d8f53d71b8c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This is why bond yields aren&#39;t coming down and are rising following the CPI report. Especially when looking at the back of the curve, as markets price in a higher for longer monetary policy from the Fed, with the 30-year rate rising back to 3.92%. But more importantly, real rates are pushing higher, with the 10-Yr TIP rate now trading at 1.58% and approaching that critical level of resistance that could lead to a big break out and push to new highs.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14a0538cce121027cd003790fb61875\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The 10-yr TIP is a critical rate to follow because assets such as long duration growth are priced using real rates, with the Nasdaq 100 being key. The spread between the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield and the 10-yr real yield is now at 1.93%, levels not seen since the mid-2000s, when the Nasdaq was in the middle of a valuation reset from the 2000 bubble. More importantly, the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield is 235 bps below the historical average of the last 10 years.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763a5b0d5b2b8c255726b71f988c02aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The other piece of the puzzle is that liquidity is now starting to be withdrawn from the Nasdaq 100 futures market, as measured by the depth of the book. The last time the depth of the book declined was back in August of 2022, which also marked a significant top in the market.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/810669f93ed838683f831e50269496db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\"/></p><p>CME Group</p><p>The addition and withdrawal of liquidity in the Nasdaq futures market in August 2022 coincided with a move up and down reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve. Currently, reserve balances are likely to decline due to the refill of the Treasury General Account. Further, as we move into the quarter end, the reverse repo activity should begin to climb, leading to lower reserves.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc60fcb97695095105c1677befc4bd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The path for inflation is sticky and will continue not to be smooth, and if the current rate of changes remains, headline inflation could very well begin to accelerate in the second half of 2023 as the base effects of the first half of 2022 wane. Translating into yields staying elevated and leaving stock particularly vulnerable as the equity risk premium gets dangerously narrow and liquidity is withdrawn from the market.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Are Dangerously Overvalued With More Rate Hikes To Come\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-14 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4611258-stocks-are-dangerously-overvalued-with-more-rate-hikes-to-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2343567514","content_text":"The CPI report shows that inflation has remained stubbornly slow to fall, with the CORE CPI rising at 5.3%, surpassing expectations for 5.2%, creating a problem for the Fed. This will likely lead the Fed to revise its summary of economic projections to show a higher inflation outlook and more rate hikes on the dot plot.This means that yields across the curve are likely to stay elevated and move higher in the months ahead at a time when liquidity is now being withdrawn from the overall market and equities are dangerously overvalued.BloombergMore Rate HikesThe market is not predicting a June rate hike, with the odds at just 10% as of this writing, and it seems unlikely that Fed will try and surprise the market, given its history. But Fed Fund futures are pricing a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike by July. With the next FOMC meeting coming at the end of July, the Fed will have more data to assess its projected rate path. However, given the hotter core CPI and searing labor market reports, it will probably mean that the dot plot will reflect another rate hike or two in 2023.The reason is that core inflation is expected to remain sticky, and the Cleveland Fed estimates Core CPI for June at 5.1%. This means the chance the Fed is done raising rates seems slim at this point, and that will likely be reflected in the dot plots when the Summary of Economic Projections comes out.Additionally, headline CPI on a non-seasonal adjusted basis rose by 0.3% in May. That has inflation rising at a 4.4% annualized rate of change over the past three and six months. This does suggest that it may be challenging to get inflation down now that it is entering this 3% to 4% range. It's important to remember that CPI on a year over year is measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, and using a seasonally adjusted CPI metric to annualize the rate of change may understate actual inflation due to changes in seasonal adjustments, which happened in 2022.BloombergThis is why bond yields aren't coming down and are rising following the CPI report. Especially when looking at the back of the curve, as markets price in a higher for longer monetary policy from the Fed, with the 30-year rate rising back to 3.92%. But more importantly, real rates are pushing higher, with the 10-Yr TIP rate now trading at 1.58% and approaching that critical level of resistance that could lead to a big break out and push to new highs.BloombergThe 10-yr TIP is a critical rate to follow because assets such as long duration growth are priced using real rates, with the Nasdaq 100 being key. The spread between the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield and the 10-yr real yield is now at 1.93%, levels not seen since the mid-2000s, when the Nasdaq was in the middle of a valuation reset from the 2000 bubble. More importantly, the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield is 235 bps below the historical average of the last 10 years.BloombergThe other piece of the puzzle is that liquidity is now starting to be withdrawn from the Nasdaq 100 futures market, as measured by the depth of the book. The last time the depth of the book declined was back in August of 2022, which also marked a significant top in the market.CME GroupThe addition and withdrawal of liquidity in the Nasdaq futures market in August 2022 coincided with a move up and down reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve. Currently, reserve balances are likely to decline due to the refill of the Treasury General Account. Further, as we move into the quarter end, the reverse repo activity should begin to climb, leading to lower reserves.BloombergThe path for inflation is sticky and will continue not to be smooth, and if the current rate of changes remains, headline inflation could very well begin to accelerate in the second half of 2023 as the base effects of the first half of 2022 wane. Translating into yields staying elevated and leaving stock particularly vulnerable as the equity risk premium gets dangerously narrow and liquidity is withdrawn from the market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185497733431312,"gmtCreate":1686327072511,"gmtModify":1686327077213,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Always learning.... let's learn together!","listText":"Always learning.... let's learn together!","text":"Always learning.... let's learn together!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185497733431312","repostId":"2342211315","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2342211315","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1686242362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2342211315?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-09 00:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Debt Metrics: How To Interpret Them And When They Matter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2342211315","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"artoleshko/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Coming out of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at an unprecedented pace. Over the course of about 15 months, the federal funds ra","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture><img height=\"1025px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/899096598/image_899096598.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/899096598/image_899096598.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/899096598/image_899096598.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/899096598/image_899096598.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/899096598/image_899096598.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/899096598/image_899096598.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/899096598/image_899096598.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/899096598/image_899096598.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/899096598/image_899096598.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>artoleshko/iStock via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>Coming out of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at an unprecedented pace. Over the course of about 15 months, the federal funds rate was raised to 5.25%, a level not seen since<span> the </span>Great Recession<span>. What was unthinkable three years ago is now a reality, and it increasingly looks as if the days of \"easy money\" are finally over. Companies are facing a higher cost of capital, which puts them at risk especially those who succumbed to the siren songs and took on excessive debt. Debt is not a bad thing per se, but with extremely low interest rates, malinvestments are increasingly common. Companies are being acquired at ridiculous valuations (e.g., V.F. Corp. (</span>VFC<span>) </span>purchased<span> fashion label Supreme for 3.7 times sales), shares are being bought back at<span> all-time highs (e.g., The Home Depot, Inc. (</span></span>HD<span>) </span>bought back<span> $14.8 billion worth of stock at an average price of $388), and some companies would quickly </span>cease to exist<span> without a steady infusion of capital.</span></p> <p>I've probably looked at more than 100 companies in the last two years and rarely have I seen one that hasn't increased its debt to a more or less significant degree. On the surface, this looks like a pretty bad setup in an environment where interest rates are likely to remain high for a significant period of time. The devil is in the details, and it is important to take a close look at a company's debt using a number of metrics. However, some of the more or less commonly available ratios can easily be misinterpreted, leading to false positives or, probably worse, false negatives.</p> <p>In this article, I will discuss the most common leverage ratios - how they are defined, when they should be used, and when they can produce misleading results. Don't worry, no mathematical equations are used, and in fact, my preferred metrics can be explained in a sentence or two and provide illustrative results.</p> <h2>Debt To Assets, Debt To Capital</h2> <p>This is a straightforward ratio that puts debt in relation to a company's total assets, and is sometimes also referred to as the gearing ratio. \"Debt\" refers to all of a company's liabilities, such as interest-bearing debt and other liabilities, but definitions vary. Sometimes only funded debt is considered. In general, subtracting equity from total assets yields the most conservative version of the ratio because it implicitly takes into account all liabilities.</p> <p>The debt to capital ratio can be viewed as a variant of the debt to assets ratio, since \"capital\" includes both debt and equity. However, investors should be careful not to compare debt to asset or debt to capital ratios from different sources, and it is important to know what is included in debt and capital. In my view, given the simplicity of the approach, investors should take the time to look at the balance sheet and calculate the ratios themselves or stick with a single source.</p> <p>In general, a low debt to assets ratio indicates conservative management because a relatively high proportion of assets are financed by equity (Figure 1), which has no contractual right to interest payments, making the company more financially robust in a downturn. All other things being equal, a company with a low debt to assets ratio has a high loss-absorbing capacity (see below). A ratio greater than 1 means that a company has more liabilities than assets and is typically very inflexible in an economic downturn and increasingly at the mercy of its creditors (i.e., an increased risk of insolvency).</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/6/8/49694823-16862293416813943.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Figure 1: Comparison of a balance sheet with a low debt to assets ratio (left) and a high debt to assets ratio (right) (own work)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Conversely, the higher the debt to assets ratio, the lower the loss absorption capacity and the higher the theoretical probability that there will not be enough left over to satisfy the claims of suppliers, pensioners, bondholders, shareholders and other stakeholders in the event of bankruptcy. This, of course, raises the question of the actual value of a company's assets in the event of bankruptcy - a question that is difficult (impossible?) to answer ex ante.</p> <p>While I acknowledge that most investors look at a company on a going concern basis and therefore do not necessarily have to know the \"true\" value of the assets, it is still important to watch for a potentially inflated asset base. Take, for example, a company that grows through acquisitions, assuming goodwill (the premium paid in addition to the value of the assets) in the process. If a company at some point in the future determines that the fair value of the acquired cash-generating unit is less than its carrying amount, the goodwill (and possibly other intangible assets) is impaired. This reduces the assets and affects the company's equity, resulting in an increase in the debt to assets ratio (Figure 2).</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/6/8/49694823-16862295396476214.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Figure 2: Schematic representation of the decrease in equity when a company recognizes a goodwill impairment charge (own work)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Common sense tells us that companies whose assets consist of a high percentage of goodwill may need to recognize impairment charges at some point. Kraft Heinz Co (KHC), for example, had a debt to assets ratio of 45% at the end of 2017. 37% of assets consisted of goodwill and 50% consisted of other intangible assets (e.g., trademarks). In 2018, KHC incurred impairment charges of $7.0 billion and $8.9 billion on goodwill and other intangible assets, respectively. The company did not incur any additional debt in 2018, so impairment charges were the primary reason for the 500 basis point increase in KHC's debt to assets ratio.</p> <p>All in all, I'm not a big fan of using debt to assets ratios as a measure of leverage. They do not take into account a company's earnings power and require at least a rough idea of the value of a company's assets. Such ratios are problematic when calculated for balance sheets with a high percentage of goodwill or an inventory position prone to markdowns (see my article on Target Corporation (TGT)). I acknowledge that the ratio provides an indication of how conservatively or aggressively a company is financed, but there are several other ratios that serve the same purpose and provide additional insight. In closing, I personally do not pay much attention to debt to assets ratios.</p> <h2>Debt To Equity</h2> <p>The debt to equity ratio is another leverage ratio that is similarly easy to calculate as the debt to assets ratio, but in its pure form only requires data from the right side of the balance sheet (total debt divided by total equity). As above, several definitions exist. An investor may choose to deduct cash and cash equivalents if they represent a significant percentage of total assets and are not needed for day-to-day operations. Of course, it is not always easy to determine the true percentage of excess cash.</p> <p>The ratio may be \"simpler\" in that it requires only inputs from the right side of the balance sheet, but that makes an investor potentially prone to ignoring the asset base. Recall Figure 2 - an investor looking only at the liability side of the balance sheet may be lulled into a false sense of security by the 50% equity funding.</p> <p>This is especially relevant when looking at banks' balance sheets. Regulators require banks to hold a certain amount of equity relative to their so-called risk-weighted assets (RWA, see this article for a \"simple\" approach based on internal ratings - IRB approach). Looking at a bank's equity ratio or debt to equity ratio can be extremely misleading, as the unfortunate example of Silicon Valley Bank (OTCPK:SIVBQ) has taught us (see my explanation and outlook on banks). Other banks' assets have also come under increased scrutiny, particularly those with a large amount of equity at risk of being eroded by large unrealized losses in their investment portfolios. Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USBOV\">U.S. Bancorp</a> (USB) are two particularly notable examples, as they had unrealized losses of $8.8 billion and $9.6 billion, respectively, in their held-to-maturity portfolios at the end of the first quarter of 2023. While the theoretical impact on their respective equity is certainly significant and potentially devastating (Figure 3), I still consider the two stocks speculative buys and have recently added them to my portfolio.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/6/8/49694823-16862300327339408.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Figure 3: Truist Financial Corporation [TFC] vs. U.S. Bancorp [USB]: Comparison of debt to equity ratios before and after hypothetical realization of the losses in their held-to-maturity portfolios (own work, based on the companies' 2023 first quarter 10-Qs).</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>However, a high leverage ratio is not necessarily an indication of problems. Such static ratios do not take into account a company's <em>cash</em> earnings power and can therefore lead to false positives. A good example is Philip Morris International Inc. (PM), which aggressively bought back shares after its spin-off from Altria Group Inc. (MO) in 2008 and whose debt to equity ratio therefore actually turned negative in 2012 (Figure 4). Even though PMI's debt to equity and debt to assets ratios have looked pretty scary since 2012, I would argue that the company can easily manage its negative equity thanks to its very stable earnings and cash flow, as well as its notorious profitability as a major tobacco company.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/6/8/49694823-16862302132049923.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Figure 4: Philip Morris International Inc. [PM]: Debt to assets and debt to equity ratio since the spin-off from Altria Group, Inc. [MO] (own work, based on the company's 2009 to 2022 10-Ks)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The buybacks have significantly improved PMI's earnings per share, but I would not go so far as to conclude that management bought back stock to boost otherwise poor earnings. There are other companies, such as Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB), that I am confident have bought back stock to prop up earnings and cash flow per share. As I discussed in another article, KMB's free cash flow has been treading water since at least 2010, but has increased by more than 22% when share repurchases are taken into account.</p> <p>In summary, the debt to equity ratio is very easy to calculate, but its usefulness is limited. It provides a quick view of how aggressively a company is financed. Like the debt to assets ratio, this metric should only be used to compare companies in a particular industry. A high debt to equity ratio indicates that a company may be over-reliant on debt, while a low ratio suggests that management may be too conservative and not using debt appropriately to expand (as a reminder, equity is always more expensive than debt). An increase in the debt to equity ratio over time due to:</p> <ul> <li>impairment of goodwill and other intangible assets,</li> <li>accelerated depreciation and amortization of fixed assets and other assets,</li> <li>incurring debt to fund unpromising projects,</li> <li>or incurring debt to aggressively repurchase shares to boost earnings per share.</li> </ul> <p>... may indicate a deterioration in fundamentals. However, a high debt to equity ratio does not necessarily signal problems, as the example of Philip Morris International Inc. showed. As will be discussed below, I believe it is very important to consider a company's cash earnings power when assessing the manageability of its debt.</p> <h2>Debt To EBITDA</h2> <p>The ratio of debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) provides a dynamic view of the debt of a company. While the above ratios are useful for a quick peer group comparison and for identifying potentially problematic trends, they do not allow a conclusion to be drawn about the sustainability of the debt. Before we take a closer look at the ratio, a word of caution. EBITDA is often referred to as a cash flow metric. I won't go into detail about why this is problematic, and I think it suffices to quote the comments of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger in the 2000 annual report of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, BRK.B):</p> <blockquote> <p><em>\"Investors are often led astray by CEOs and Wall Street analysts who equate depreciation charges with the amortization charges we have just discussed. In no way are the two the same: With rare exceptions, depreciation is an economic cost every bit as real as wages, materials, or taxes. Certainly that is true at Berkshire and at virtually all the other businesses we have studied. Furthermore, we do not think so-called EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) is a meaningful measure of performance. Managements that dismiss the importance of depreciation - and emphasize \"cash flow\" or EBITDA - are apt to make faulty decisions, and you should keep that in mind as you make your own investment decisions.</em>\"</p> <p>Page 65, 2000 annual report, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.</p> </blockquote> <p>The debt to EBITDA ratio typically relates all interest-bearing debt to EBITDA. It is critical to make a meaningful estimate of EBITDA, and investors should be wary of one-time charges or tailwinds. I usually look at the three-year average of EBITDA, but of course, that doesn't help with companies that are growing aggressively or are in decline. It's a very descriptive metric because it shows the number of years it theoretically takes a company to pay down its debt. Of course, this is where the problems start, because I have yet to come across a company that does not have to make regular investments and pay taxes and interest.</p> <p>Suffice it to say, I don't like to use the debt to EBITDA ratio because of these serious flaws and only use it for companies that don't have actual free cash flow, such as utilities. In a nutshell, the debt to EBITDA ratio assumes an indefinite life of the company's assets. I acknowledge that the investments of these companies tend to be very long-lived, but they eventually depreciate, so I remain very cautious about utility debt in general, and especially in the current high interest rate environment.</p> <p>Take the example of The Southern Company (SO), a utility I have reported on in the past. Metrics such as net financial debt to assets and net financial debt to equity are not helpful in this context:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/6/8/49694823-1686231258402452.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Figure 5: The Southern Company [SO]: Net financial debt to assets and net financial debt to equity ratio since 2017 (own work, based on the company's 2017 to 2022 10-Ks)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>If one takes into account (adjusted) EBITDA as a proxy for earnings, things look different. Of course, one could argue that the substantial capital expenditures associated with the construction of Vogtle Units 3 and 4 will result in higher earnings later on and that the cost overruns are one-time in nature, but I would argue that there is always a way to make debt metrics look good. However, even using EBITDA before \"special items,\" it is clear that Southern's debt only knows one direction. In 2012, net financial debt was 3.0 times adjusted EBITDA, and by 2022 it had increased to 5.6 times.</p> <p>Although this all sounds very negative and perhaps implies that the debt to EBITDA ratio is a more or less useless metric, investors should still keep an eye on the ratio, as many creditors have formulated debt covenants based on this ratio. Not only can they directly impact a company's access to sources of liquidity, but a breach of debt covenants can quickly lead to a dividend cut or other unpleasant management decisions.</p> <p>In this regard, diversified manufacturer Leggett &amp; Platt, Inc. (LEG) serves as a good example. Due to the cyclical nature of its earnings, management acted prudently in 2020 and agreed with its creditors to modify some of the debt covenants. For example, the debt covenant associated with LEG's revolving credit facility was changed from gross debt to net debt in May 2020 and again in September 2021, to 3.5 times net debt to EBITDA from 2.5 times previously (p. 94, 2021 10-K), creating more headroom for short-term liquidity needs. Figure 6 shows the evolution of Leggett's leverage since the first quarter of 2020. Those who have followed my articles on the company know that free cash flow fell off a cliff in 2021, underscoring the usefulness of adjusted EBITDA in the context of debt covenants, as it is less sensitive to short-term fluctuations than actual free cash flow.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/6/8/49694823-16862316960432389.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Figure 6: Leggett &amp; Platt, Inc. [LEG]: Net financial debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA since 2020 (own work, based on the company's quarterly earnings releases)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Debt To Free Cash Flow</h2> <p>My regular readers know that I place great emphasis on free cash flow. As an income-oriented investor, I need to ensure that the companies I own generate enough cash to fund their operations, grow, and pay a (growing) dividend. I acknowledge that a meaningful estimate of the debt to free cash flow ratio requires a bit of work. For one, the analyst must be wary of seemingly non-cash costs (e.g., stock-based compensation and related share repurchases to offset dilution). It is also important to have a good understanding of working capital movements, especially for companies with high working capital needs and/or those operating in cyclical industries. Those interested in calculating debt relative to free cash flow themselves should read this article detailing my adjustments to conventional free cash flow.</p> <p>Putting (interest-bearing) debt in relation to free cash flow gives a similar illustrative number to the ratio of debt to EBITDA. One can subtract regular expenses such as dividends to shareholders to arrive at a more conservative estimate of a company's leverage. The debt to free cash flow ratio is definitely my preferred leverage metric, in combination with the interest coverage ratio (see below).</p> <p>It is impossible to make a recommendation for an appropriate debt to free cash flow ratio. Companies with reliable cash flows and low capital expenditures, such as tobacco companies or IT companies with robust subscription models such as Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), can obviously handle much higher leverage ratios than cyclical industrial companies such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMM\">3M</a> Company (MMM). In this context, it is of course interesting to note that Microsoft is extremely conservatively financed (Figure 7) despite its highly reliable cash flows, while 3M's leverage is becoming more of a problem, in part due to high expected settlement charges and declining cash flows from operations - which is attributable to increasing competition, its cyclicality, and operational inefficiencies.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/6/8/49694823-1686231972653794.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Figure 7: Microsoft Corporation [MSFT]: Gross and net financial debt to normalized free cash flow; note that Microsoft's negative net debt to nFCF ratio indicates that the company has a net cash position on its balance sheet (own work, based on the company's fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2022 10-Ks)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In principle, I consider a leverage ratio of up to four times net debt to free cash flow to be unproblematic, even for rather cyclical companies. Of course, an increase in this ratio over the years should be appropriately questioned, as it could indicate earnings problems or other challenges. It is also important to consider working capital. The post-pandemic period showed us how quickly cash flow can evaporate when, for example, supplies get stuck in transit or parts needed for completion are unavailable.</p> <p>Finally, if a company's management is fairly conservative and maintains a low (or even negative) net debt to free cash flow ratio, I take that into account in my valuation. I am willing to pay a premium for companies with reliable free cash flow and low debt. Besides Microsoft, names like The Procter &amp; Gamble Company (PG) come to mind. Under pressure from activist investor Nelson Peltz, the portfolio has been streamlined, debt repayment has been accelerated through divestitures, and cost-cutting measures have helped to significantly improve profitability. As a result, PG's net debt is now about 1.4 to 1.8 times the normalized free cash flow. And even after paying dividends, the company would only need three to four years to pay off all its interest-bearing financial liabilities.</p> <h2>Interest Coverage Ratio</h2> <p>This is my second go-to metric when assessing a company's leverage. According to many textbooks, the interest coverage ratio is obtained by dividing a company's net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) by the net interest expense incurred. Again, it is important that the data be meaningful (e.g., use two- or three-year averages). In its foundation, the ratio is easy to calculate and very descriptive. The higher it is, the better, as the company only has to spend a comparatively small percentage of its operating profit on interest payments.</p> <p>As always, the devil is in the details. For example, it can be dangerous to take net interest expense at face value. While a company with a substantial cash position may offset some of its interest expense with interest income from short-term investments, this income is sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates, while the weighted-average interest rate on the company's total debt adjusts relatively slowly. In this context, I find it extremely helpful to consider the debt maturity profile, also calculating the weighted-average interest rate on debt maturing over a given period. In my recent article on The Home Depot, Inc. and Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW), I discussed several important implications of interest rates, noting, for example, that HD is likely to face higher interest expense due to the comparatively low interest rate on its debt maturing in the next few years:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/6/8/49694823-16862323874477353.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Figure 8: The Home Depot, Inc. [HD]: Long-term debt maturities as of year-end 2022 (own work, based on the company's 2022 10-K)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In the context of interest rates, it is very important to look for potential debt with adjustable rates. Organon &amp; Co. (OGN), the women's health-focused spin-off from Merck &amp; Co. (MRK) that I recently reported on, is a good example. At the end of the second quarter of 2022, management expected interest expense to be $400 million, and although the company voluntarily repaid $250 million of its long-term debt in the first quarter of 2023, interest expense in 2023 is expected to be $515 million.</p> <p>Since earnings are relatively easy to manage, I prefer to calculate interest coverage using normalized free cash flow before interest. I realize that adding net interest expense to free cash flow is not entirely accurate, as it does not take into account the tax shield effect of interest expense, but it is a sufficient proxy in my opinion. An interest coverage ratio of six times free cash flow before interest is perfectly acceptable, and I am willing to pay a premium for a company whose interest coverage ratio is well above the peer group average.</p> <p>Finally, I think it can be worthwhile to do scenario analyses. The year 2022 has taught us that we should not be fooled by the apparent \"new normal\" of a zero interest rate environment. Investors who made sure their companies could withstand a high interest rate environment before interest rates rose could gracefully avoid companies with a problematic capital structure. At the same time, calculating the interest coverage ratio under stress scenarios can also help in the context of a potential rating downgrade, which is usually associated with an increase in the company's cost of capital. In this article, I have explained a simple approach to performing such calculations that can be easily implemented in Excel or a similar spreadsheet program.</p> <h2>A Few Final Words Of Caution</h2> <p>The interest coverage ratio and the debt to free cash flow ratio are the two ratios I use most often when evaluating a company's debt. They require a little work, but they provide a very transparent and easy-to-understand view of the situation. Debt due diligence doesn't end there, however, and I'd like to end the article with two final words of caution.</p> <p>Operating leases have historically not been recognized on the balance sheet. However, leases can be significant, especially for retailers, and the associated contractual payments can become problematic in an economic downturn or when company-specific issues arise. Beginning in 2019, operating leases must be recognized on the balance sheet (ASC 842 and IFRS 16), so it has become more difficult to overlook this item. There are several ways to account for operating leases. I personally account for them by calculating a modified version of the debt to free cash flow ratio. In this context, it is important to only compare members of a representative peer group.</p> <p>Second, pension-related obligations may also be considered more or less sensitive to interest rates. In particular, \"old economy\" companies with rather conventional compensation models may have significant unfunded pension-related obligations on their balance sheets. I discussed Lockheed Martin Corporation's (LMT) pension obligations in another article, noting positively that the company has transferred a significant portion of the obligations to retirement services companies such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATH\">Athene Holding Ltd</a>. (ATH.PB, ATH.PC, ATH.PD), thereby taking pressure off its own balance sheet.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>The article provided an overview of several more or less common ratios that can be used to assess a company's leverage.</p> <p>Ratios such as debt to assets (debt to capital) or debt to equity, with all their nuances, are easy to determine and can provide an initial indication of a company's vulnerability in an economic downturn or point to inefficiencies due to inappropriate use of debt. However, because they are static ratios, they provide only a very limited picture, so it is important to review the evolution of these ratios over several years. The debt to equity ratio is very easy to obtain, as the asset side of the balance sheet can be ignored. However, this puts the analyst at risk of overlooking assets that are susceptible to write-downs, which directly impact equity and, therefore, loss absorption capacity. The asset side of the balance sheet should be critically examined, and this is particularly true for banks or companies with a high proportion of goodwill and other intangible assets.</p> <p>However, as the example of Philip Morris International and The Southern Company has shown, these ratios can produce misleading results. In the first case, investors may be unjustifiably alarmed, while in the second case, a potential deterioration in the company's fundamentals may be overlooked.</p> <p>Dynamic metrics such as debt to EBITDA or debt to free cash flow provide better insight into the situation. However, since EBITDA is not a true earnings metric (all companies have to pay taxes, make regular investments, and pay more or less interest), investors should be cautious when comparing debt to EBITDA. Nevertheless, this ratio is important in the context of debt covenants and should therefore be reviewed on a regular basis, especially for cyclical companies and/or companies at risk of short-term liquidity issues. Debt covenants also often directly impact a company's ability to pay dividends.</p> <p>My favorite metrics are the debt to free cash flow ratio and the interest coverage ratio. Using actual cash earnings instead of reported earnings elegantly avoids several pitfalls and can provide a fairly transparent view of a company's debt servicing ability. Consideration of the debt maturity profile allows identification of a potential near-term increase in interest expense, and proper analysis of free cash flow volatility (particularly in terms of working capital movements) allows an informed conclusion about a company's debt servicing ability in any economic climate.</p> <p>However, debt due diligence does not end with an examination of a company's interest-bearing debt. It is important to also consider more or less sector-specific obligations such as operating leases and pension obligations. Analysis should always be limited to a specific peer group. It makes no sense to compare the leverage of a retailer with high operating leases with that of a company with low assets such as a tobacco company or an asset manager. Similarly, it makes no sense to lament the high leverage of bank balance sheets and compare them to those of non-financial companies.</p> <p>Finally, it is important to always compare debt and interest expense to balance sheet or earnings ratios. It makes no sense to avoid a company because of its seemingly high debt in absolute terms. At times, news outlets indulge in sensational reports that a company has racked up tens of billions of dollars in debt, without putting the number into proper perspective.</p> <p>Also, investors need to be careful when comparing debt metrics from different data providers. There are a number of definitions, and it is important to know what actually went into the calculation. Sometimes data providers' calculations are opaque, or the necessary information is difficult to obtain.</p> <div></div> <p>As always, please consider this article only as a first step in your own due diligence. Thank you for taking the time to read my latest article. Whether you agree or disagree with my conclusions, I always welcome your opinion and feedback in the comments below. And if there is anything I should improve or expand on in future articles, drop me a line as well.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Debt Metrics: How To Interpret Them And When They Matter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDebt Metrics: How To Interpret Them And When They Matter\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-09 00:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4610322-debt-metrics-how-to-interpret><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>artoleshko/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Coming out of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at an unprecedented pace. Over the course of about 15 months, the federal funds ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4610322-debt-metrics-how-to-interpret\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/899096598/image_899096598.jpg","relate_stocks":{"IE0009355771.USD":"骏利亨德森环球生命科技A Acc","LU1093756325.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin K2 Alt Strat Fd A (acc) SGD-H1","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B2B36J28.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"I1\" (USD) INC","IE00BJT1NW94.SGD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","MRK":"默沙东","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4576":"AR","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","BK4075":"烟草","BK4558":"双十一","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4206":"工业集团企业","SO":"美国南方公司","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","LOW":"劳氏","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","KHC":"卡夫亨氏","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","BK4589":"SVB概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","KMB":"金佰利","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4097":"系统软件","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","LEG":"礼恩派","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","SG9999001176.SGD":"UOB UNITED GLOBAL HEALTHCARE \"SGD\" (ACC)","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4610322-debt-metrics-how-to-interpret","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2342211315","content_text":"artoleshko/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Coming out of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at an unprecedented pace. Over the course of about 15 months, the federal funds rate was raised to 5.25%, a level not seen since the Great Recession. What was unthinkable three years ago is now a reality, and it increasingly looks as if the days of \"easy money\" are finally over. Companies are facing a higher cost of capital, which puts them at risk especially those who succumbed to the siren songs and took on excessive debt. Debt is not a bad thing per se, but with extremely low interest rates, malinvestments are increasingly common. Companies are being acquired at ridiculous valuations (e.g., V.F. Corp. (VFC) purchased fashion label Supreme for 3.7 times sales), shares are being bought back at all-time highs (e.g., The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) bought back $14.8 billion worth of stock at an average price of $388), and some companies would quickly cease to exist without a steady infusion of capital. I've probably looked at more than 100 companies in the last two years and rarely have I seen one that hasn't increased its debt to a more or less significant degree. On the surface, this looks like a pretty bad setup in an environment where interest rates are likely to remain high for a significant period of time. The devil is in the details, and it is important to take a close look at a company's debt using a number of metrics. However, some of the more or less commonly available ratios can easily be misinterpreted, leading to false positives or, probably worse, false negatives. In this article, I will discuss the most common leverage ratios - how they are defined, when they should be used, and when they can produce misleading results. Don't worry, no mathematical equations are used, and in fact, my preferred metrics can be explained in a sentence or two and provide illustrative results. Debt To Assets, Debt To Capital This is a straightforward ratio that puts debt in relation to a company's total assets, and is sometimes also referred to as the gearing ratio. \"Debt\" refers to all of a company's liabilities, such as interest-bearing debt and other liabilities, but definitions vary. Sometimes only funded debt is considered. In general, subtracting equity from total assets yields the most conservative version of the ratio because it implicitly takes into account all liabilities. The debt to capital ratio can be viewed as a variant of the debt to assets ratio, since \"capital\" includes both debt and equity. However, investors should be careful not to compare debt to asset or debt to capital ratios from different sources, and it is important to know what is included in debt and capital. In my view, given the simplicity of the approach, investors should take the time to look at the balance sheet and calculate the ratios themselves or stick with a single source. In general, a low debt to assets ratio indicates conservative management because a relatively high proportion of assets are financed by equity (Figure 1), which has no contractual right to interest payments, making the company more financially robust in a downturn. All other things being equal, a company with a low debt to assets ratio has a high loss-absorbing capacity (see below). A ratio greater than 1 means that a company has more liabilities than assets and is typically very inflexible in an economic downturn and increasingly at the mercy of its creditors (i.e., an increased risk of insolvency). Figure 1: Comparison of a balance sheet with a low debt to assets ratio (left) and a high debt to assets ratio (right) (own work) Conversely, the higher the debt to assets ratio, the lower the loss absorption capacity and the higher the theoretical probability that there will not be enough left over to satisfy the claims of suppliers, pensioners, bondholders, shareholders and other stakeholders in the event of bankruptcy. This, of course, raises the question of the actual value of a company's assets in the event of bankruptcy - a question that is difficult (impossible?) to answer ex ante. While I acknowledge that most investors look at a company on a going concern basis and therefore do not necessarily have to know the \"true\" value of the assets, it is still important to watch for a potentially inflated asset base. Take, for example, a company that grows through acquisitions, assuming goodwill (the premium paid in addition to the value of the assets) in the process. If a company at some point in the future determines that the fair value of the acquired cash-generating unit is less than its carrying amount, the goodwill (and possibly other intangible assets) is impaired. This reduces the assets and affects the company's equity, resulting in an increase in the debt to assets ratio (Figure 2). Figure 2: Schematic representation of the decrease in equity when a company recognizes a goodwill impairment charge (own work) Common sense tells us that companies whose assets consist of a high percentage of goodwill may need to recognize impairment charges at some point. Kraft Heinz Co (KHC), for example, had a debt to assets ratio of 45% at the end of 2017. 37% of assets consisted of goodwill and 50% consisted of other intangible assets (e.g., trademarks). In 2018, KHC incurred impairment charges of $7.0 billion and $8.9 billion on goodwill and other intangible assets, respectively. The company did not incur any additional debt in 2018, so impairment charges were the primary reason for the 500 basis point increase in KHC's debt to assets ratio. All in all, I'm not a big fan of using debt to assets ratios as a measure of leverage. They do not take into account a company's earnings power and require at least a rough idea of the value of a company's assets. Such ratios are problematic when calculated for balance sheets with a high percentage of goodwill or an inventory position prone to markdowns (see my article on Target Corporation (TGT)). I acknowledge that the ratio provides an indication of how conservatively or aggressively a company is financed, but there are several other ratios that serve the same purpose and provide additional insight. In closing, I personally do not pay much attention to debt to assets ratios. Debt To Equity The debt to equity ratio is another leverage ratio that is similarly easy to calculate as the debt to assets ratio, but in its pure form only requires data from the right side of the balance sheet (total debt divided by total equity). As above, several definitions exist. An investor may choose to deduct cash and cash equivalents if they represent a significant percentage of total assets and are not needed for day-to-day operations. Of course, it is not always easy to determine the true percentage of excess cash. The ratio may be \"simpler\" in that it requires only inputs from the right side of the balance sheet, but that makes an investor potentially prone to ignoring the asset base. Recall Figure 2 - an investor looking only at the liability side of the balance sheet may be lulled into a false sense of security by the 50% equity funding. This is especially relevant when looking at banks' balance sheets. Regulators require banks to hold a certain amount of equity relative to their so-called risk-weighted assets (RWA, see this article for a \"simple\" approach based on internal ratings - IRB approach). Looking at a bank's equity ratio or debt to equity ratio can be extremely misleading, as the unfortunate example of Silicon Valley Bank (OTCPK:SIVBQ) has taught us (see my explanation and outlook on banks). Other banks' assets have also come under increased scrutiny, particularly those with a large amount of equity at risk of being eroded by large unrealized losses in their investment portfolios. Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) are two particularly notable examples, as they had unrealized losses of $8.8 billion and $9.6 billion, respectively, in their held-to-maturity portfolios at the end of the first quarter of 2023. While the theoretical impact on their respective equity is certainly significant and potentially devastating (Figure 3), I still consider the two stocks speculative buys and have recently added them to my portfolio. Figure 3: Truist Financial Corporation [TFC] vs. U.S. Bancorp [USB]: Comparison of debt to equity ratios before and after hypothetical realization of the losses in their held-to-maturity portfolios (own work, based on the companies' 2023 first quarter 10-Qs). However, a high leverage ratio is not necessarily an indication of problems. Such static ratios do not take into account a company's cash earnings power and can therefore lead to false positives. A good example is Philip Morris International Inc. (PM), which aggressively bought back shares after its spin-off from Altria Group Inc. (MO) in 2008 and whose debt to equity ratio therefore actually turned negative in 2012 (Figure 4). Even though PMI's debt to equity and debt to assets ratios have looked pretty scary since 2012, I would argue that the company can easily manage its negative equity thanks to its very stable earnings and cash flow, as well as its notorious profitability as a major tobacco company. Figure 4: Philip Morris International Inc. [PM]: Debt to assets and debt to equity ratio since the spin-off from Altria Group, Inc. [MO] (own work, based on the company's 2009 to 2022 10-Ks) The buybacks have significantly improved PMI's earnings per share, but I would not go so far as to conclude that management bought back stock to boost otherwise poor earnings. There are other companies, such as Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB), that I am confident have bought back stock to prop up earnings and cash flow per share. As I discussed in another article, KMB's free cash flow has been treading water since at least 2010, but has increased by more than 22% when share repurchases are taken into account. In summary, the debt to equity ratio is very easy to calculate, but its usefulness is limited. It provides a quick view of how aggressively a company is financed. Like the debt to assets ratio, this metric should only be used to compare companies in a particular industry. A high debt to equity ratio indicates that a company may be over-reliant on debt, while a low ratio suggests that management may be too conservative and not using debt appropriately to expand (as a reminder, equity is always more expensive than debt). An increase in the debt to equity ratio over time due to:  impairment of goodwill and other intangible assets, accelerated depreciation and amortization of fixed assets and other assets, incurring debt to fund unpromising projects, or incurring debt to aggressively repurchase shares to boost earnings per share.  ... may indicate a deterioration in fundamentals. However, a high debt to equity ratio does not necessarily signal problems, as the example of Philip Morris International Inc. showed. As will be discussed below, I believe it is very important to consider a company's cash earnings power when assessing the manageability of its debt. Debt To EBITDA The ratio of debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) provides a dynamic view of the debt of a company. While the above ratios are useful for a quick peer group comparison and for identifying potentially problematic trends, they do not allow a conclusion to be drawn about the sustainability of the debt. Before we take a closer look at the ratio, a word of caution. EBITDA is often referred to as a cash flow metric. I won't go into detail about why this is problematic, and I think it suffices to quote the comments of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger in the 2000 annual report of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, BRK.B):  \"Investors are often led astray by CEOs and Wall Street analysts who equate depreciation charges with the amortization charges we have just discussed. In no way are the two the same: With rare exceptions, depreciation is an economic cost every bit as real as wages, materials, or taxes. Certainly that is true at Berkshire and at virtually all the other businesses we have studied. Furthermore, we do not think so-called EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) is a meaningful measure of performance. Managements that dismiss the importance of depreciation - and emphasize \"cash flow\" or EBITDA - are apt to make faulty decisions, and you should keep that in mind as you make your own investment decisions.\" Page 65, 2000 annual report, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.  The debt to EBITDA ratio typically relates all interest-bearing debt to EBITDA. It is critical to make a meaningful estimate of EBITDA, and investors should be wary of one-time charges or tailwinds. I usually look at the three-year average of EBITDA, but of course, that doesn't help with companies that are growing aggressively or are in decline. It's a very descriptive metric because it shows the number of years it theoretically takes a company to pay down its debt. Of course, this is where the problems start, because I have yet to come across a company that does not have to make regular investments and pay taxes and interest. Suffice it to say, I don't like to use the debt to EBITDA ratio because of these serious flaws and only use it for companies that don't have actual free cash flow, such as utilities. In a nutshell, the debt to EBITDA ratio assumes an indefinite life of the company's assets. I acknowledge that the investments of these companies tend to be very long-lived, but they eventually depreciate, so I remain very cautious about utility debt in general, and especially in the current high interest rate environment. Take the example of The Southern Company (SO), a utility I have reported on in the past. Metrics such as net financial debt to assets and net financial debt to equity are not helpful in this context: Figure 5: The Southern Company [SO]: Net financial debt to assets and net financial debt to equity ratio since 2017 (own work, based on the company's 2017 to 2022 10-Ks) If one takes into account (adjusted) EBITDA as a proxy for earnings, things look different. Of course, one could argue that the substantial capital expenditures associated with the construction of Vogtle Units 3 and 4 will result in higher earnings later on and that the cost overruns are one-time in nature, but I would argue that there is always a way to make debt metrics look good. However, even using EBITDA before \"special items,\" it is clear that Southern's debt only knows one direction. In 2012, net financial debt was 3.0 times adjusted EBITDA, and by 2022 it had increased to 5.6 times. Although this all sounds very negative and perhaps implies that the debt to EBITDA ratio is a more or less useless metric, investors should still keep an eye on the ratio, as many creditors have formulated debt covenants based on this ratio. Not only can they directly impact a company's access to sources of liquidity, but a breach of debt covenants can quickly lead to a dividend cut or other unpleasant management decisions. In this regard, diversified manufacturer Leggett & Platt, Inc. (LEG) serves as a good example. Due to the cyclical nature of its earnings, management acted prudently in 2020 and agreed with its creditors to modify some of the debt covenants. For example, the debt covenant associated with LEG's revolving credit facility was changed from gross debt to net debt in May 2020 and again in September 2021, to 3.5 times net debt to EBITDA from 2.5 times previously (p. 94, 2021 10-K), creating more headroom for short-term liquidity needs. Figure 6 shows the evolution of Leggett's leverage since the first quarter of 2020. Those who have followed my articles on the company know that free cash flow fell off a cliff in 2021, underscoring the usefulness of adjusted EBITDA in the context of debt covenants, as it is less sensitive to short-term fluctuations than actual free cash flow. Figure 6: Leggett & Platt, Inc. [LEG]: Net financial debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA since 2020 (own work, based on the company's quarterly earnings releases) Debt To Free Cash Flow My regular readers know that I place great emphasis on free cash flow. As an income-oriented investor, I need to ensure that the companies I own generate enough cash to fund their operations, grow, and pay a (growing) dividend. I acknowledge that a meaningful estimate of the debt to free cash flow ratio requires a bit of work. For one, the analyst must be wary of seemingly non-cash costs (e.g., stock-based compensation and related share repurchases to offset dilution). It is also important to have a good understanding of working capital movements, especially for companies with high working capital needs and/or those operating in cyclical industries. Those interested in calculating debt relative to free cash flow themselves should read this article detailing my adjustments to conventional free cash flow. Putting (interest-bearing) debt in relation to free cash flow gives a similar illustrative number to the ratio of debt to EBITDA. One can subtract regular expenses such as dividends to shareholders to arrive at a more conservative estimate of a company's leverage. The debt to free cash flow ratio is definitely my preferred leverage metric, in combination with the interest coverage ratio (see below). It is impossible to make a recommendation for an appropriate debt to free cash flow ratio. Companies with reliable cash flows and low capital expenditures, such as tobacco companies or IT companies with robust subscription models such as Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), can obviously handle much higher leverage ratios than cyclical industrial companies such as 3M Company (MMM). In this context, it is of course interesting to note that Microsoft is extremely conservatively financed (Figure 7) despite its highly reliable cash flows, while 3M's leverage is becoming more of a problem, in part due to high expected settlement charges and declining cash flows from operations - which is attributable to increasing competition, its cyclicality, and operational inefficiencies. Figure 7: Microsoft Corporation [MSFT]: Gross and net financial debt to normalized free cash flow; note that Microsoft's negative net debt to nFCF ratio indicates that the company has a net cash position on its balance sheet (own work, based on the company's fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2022 10-Ks) In principle, I consider a leverage ratio of up to four times net debt to free cash flow to be unproblematic, even for rather cyclical companies. Of course, an increase in this ratio over the years should be appropriately questioned, as it could indicate earnings problems or other challenges. It is also important to consider working capital. The post-pandemic period showed us how quickly cash flow can evaporate when, for example, supplies get stuck in transit or parts needed for completion are unavailable. Finally, if a company's management is fairly conservative and maintains a low (or even negative) net debt to free cash flow ratio, I take that into account in my valuation. I am willing to pay a premium for companies with reliable free cash flow and low debt. Besides Microsoft, names like The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) come to mind. Under pressure from activist investor Nelson Peltz, the portfolio has been streamlined, debt repayment has been accelerated through divestitures, and cost-cutting measures have helped to significantly improve profitability. As a result, PG's net debt is now about 1.4 to 1.8 times the normalized free cash flow. And even after paying dividends, the company would only need three to four years to pay off all its interest-bearing financial liabilities. Interest Coverage Ratio This is my second go-to metric when assessing a company's leverage. According to many textbooks, the interest coverage ratio is obtained by dividing a company's net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) by the net interest expense incurred. Again, it is important that the data be meaningful (e.g., use two- or three-year averages). In its foundation, the ratio is easy to calculate and very descriptive. The higher it is, the better, as the company only has to spend a comparatively small percentage of its operating profit on interest payments. As always, the devil is in the details. For example, it can be dangerous to take net interest expense at face value. While a company with a substantial cash position may offset some of its interest expense with interest income from short-term investments, this income is sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates, while the weighted-average interest rate on the company's total debt adjusts relatively slowly. In this context, I find it extremely helpful to consider the debt maturity profile, also calculating the weighted-average interest rate on debt maturing over a given period. In my recent article on The Home Depot, Inc. and Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW), I discussed several important implications of interest rates, noting, for example, that HD is likely to face higher interest expense due to the comparatively low interest rate on its debt maturing in the next few years: Figure 8: The Home Depot, Inc. [HD]: Long-term debt maturities as of year-end 2022 (own work, based on the company's 2022 10-K) In the context of interest rates, it is very important to look for potential debt with adjustable rates. Organon & Co. (OGN), the women's health-focused spin-off from Merck & Co. (MRK) that I recently reported on, is a good example. At the end of the second quarter of 2022, management expected interest expense to be $400 million, and although the company voluntarily repaid $250 million of its long-term debt in the first quarter of 2023, interest expense in 2023 is expected to be $515 million. Since earnings are relatively easy to manage, I prefer to calculate interest coverage using normalized free cash flow before interest. I realize that adding net interest expense to free cash flow is not entirely accurate, as it does not take into account the tax shield effect of interest expense, but it is a sufficient proxy in my opinion. An interest coverage ratio of six times free cash flow before interest is perfectly acceptable, and I am willing to pay a premium for a company whose interest coverage ratio is well above the peer group average. Finally, I think it can be worthwhile to do scenario analyses. The year 2022 has taught us that we should not be fooled by the apparent \"new normal\" of a zero interest rate environment. Investors who made sure their companies could withstand a high interest rate environment before interest rates rose could gracefully avoid companies with a problematic capital structure. At the same time, calculating the interest coverage ratio under stress scenarios can also help in the context of a potential rating downgrade, which is usually associated with an increase in the company's cost of capital. In this article, I have explained a simple approach to performing such calculations that can be easily implemented in Excel or a similar spreadsheet program. A Few Final Words Of Caution The interest coverage ratio and the debt to free cash flow ratio are the two ratios I use most often when evaluating a company's debt. They require a little work, but they provide a very transparent and easy-to-understand view of the situation. Debt due diligence doesn't end there, however, and I'd like to end the article with two final words of caution. Operating leases have historically not been recognized on the balance sheet. However, leases can be significant, especially for retailers, and the associated contractual payments can become problematic in an economic downturn or when company-specific issues arise. Beginning in 2019, operating leases must be recognized on the balance sheet (ASC 842 and IFRS 16), so it has become more difficult to overlook this item. There are several ways to account for operating leases. I personally account for them by calculating a modified version of the debt to free cash flow ratio. In this context, it is important to only compare members of a representative peer group. Second, pension-related obligations may also be considered more or less sensitive to interest rates. In particular, \"old economy\" companies with rather conventional compensation models may have significant unfunded pension-related obligations on their balance sheets. I discussed Lockheed Martin Corporation's (LMT) pension obligations in another article, noting positively that the company has transferred a significant portion of the obligations to retirement services companies such as Athene Holding Ltd. (ATH.PB, ATH.PC, ATH.PD), thereby taking pressure off its own balance sheet. Conclusion The article provided an overview of several more or less common ratios that can be used to assess a company's leverage. Ratios such as debt to assets (debt to capital) or debt to equity, with all their nuances, are easy to determine and can provide an initial indication of a company's vulnerability in an economic downturn or point to inefficiencies due to inappropriate use of debt. However, because they are static ratios, they provide only a very limited picture, so it is important to review the evolution of these ratios over several years. The debt to equity ratio is very easy to obtain, as the asset side of the balance sheet can be ignored. However, this puts the analyst at risk of overlooking assets that are susceptible to write-downs, which directly impact equity and, therefore, loss absorption capacity. The asset side of the balance sheet should be critically examined, and this is particularly true for banks or companies with a high proportion of goodwill and other intangible assets. However, as the example of Philip Morris International and The Southern Company has shown, these ratios can produce misleading results. In the first case, investors may be unjustifiably alarmed, while in the second case, a potential deterioration in the company's fundamentals may be overlooked. Dynamic metrics such as debt to EBITDA or debt to free cash flow provide better insight into the situation. However, since EBITDA is not a true earnings metric (all companies have to pay taxes, make regular investments, and pay more or less interest), investors should be cautious when comparing debt to EBITDA. Nevertheless, this ratio is important in the context of debt covenants and should therefore be reviewed on a regular basis, especially for cyclical companies and/or companies at risk of short-term liquidity issues. Debt covenants also often directly impact a company's ability to pay dividends. My favorite metrics are the debt to free cash flow ratio and the interest coverage ratio. Using actual cash earnings instead of reported earnings elegantly avoids several pitfalls and can provide a fairly transparent view of a company's debt servicing ability. Consideration of the debt maturity profile allows identification of a potential near-term increase in interest expense, and proper analysis of free cash flow volatility (particularly in terms of working capital movements) allows an informed conclusion about a company's debt servicing ability in any economic climate. However, debt due diligence does not end with an examination of a company's interest-bearing debt. It is important to also consider more or less sector-specific obligations such as operating leases and pension obligations. Analysis should always be limited to a specific peer group. It makes no sense to compare the leverage of a retailer with high operating leases with that of a company with low assets such as a tobacco company or an asset manager. Similarly, it makes no sense to lament the high leverage of bank balance sheets and compare them to those of non-financial companies. Finally, it is important to always compare debt and interest expense to balance sheet or earnings ratios. It makes no sense to avoid a company because of its seemingly high debt in absolute terms. At times, news outlets indulge in sensational reports that a company has racked up tens of billions of dollars in debt, without putting the number into proper perspective. Also, investors need to be careful when comparing debt metrics from different data providers. There are a number of definitions, and it is important to know what actually went into the calculation. Sometimes data providers' calculations are opaque, or the necessary information is difficult to obtain.  As always, please consider this article only as a first step in your own due diligence. Thank you for taking the time to read my latest article. Whether you agree or disagree with my conclusions, I always welcome your opinion and feedback in the comments below. And if there is anything I should improve or expand on in future articles, drop me a line as well.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970200669,"gmtCreate":1684425784051,"gmtModify":1684425787625,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Makes sense...","listText":"Makes sense...","text":"Makes sense...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970200669","repostId":"9970624756","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970624756,"gmtCreate":1684409317976,"gmtModify":1684409616631,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorIdStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"Top 3 Stocks To Exit In A US Debit Limit Meltdown.","htmlText":"It was a “pleasant” surprise to wake in the morning to find that US market has staged a 1-day rally where gains were quite “substantial”. As mentioned in my <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/9970892786\" target=\"_blank\">Tue, 16 May post</a>’s opening paragrahs, “pointless” to celebrate because market will struggle thru this week, in a “confused” state. See what I mean? US market’s futures for Thu, 18 May is a “red” wash all over again. Without a national issue eg. Debt Limit, the US market is already “unpredictable” at times; let alone with one now, the US market is going to get even crazier. While trying to play the devil’s advocate on the US Debt Limit issue, I stumbled upon the article by The Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) on the economic impact based on different degrees of Debt L","listText":"It was a “pleasant” surprise to wake in the morning to find that US market has staged a 1-day rally where gains were quite “substantial”. As mentioned in my <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/9970892786\" target=\"_blank\">Tue, 16 May post</a>’s opening paragrahs, “pointless” to celebrate because market will struggle thru this week, in a “confused” state. See what I mean? US market’s futures for Thu, 18 May is a “red” wash all over again. Without a national issue eg. Debt Limit, the US market is already “unpredictable” at times; let alone with one now, the US market is going to get even crazier. While trying to play the devil’s advocate on the US Debt Limit issue, I stumbled upon the article by The Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) on the economic impact based on different degrees of Debt L","text":"It was a “pleasant” surprise to wake in the morning to find that US market has staged a 1-day rally where gains were quite “substantial”. As mentioned in my Tue, 16 May post’s opening paragrahs, “pointless” to celebrate because market will struggle thru this week, in a “confused” state. See what I mean? US market’s futures for Thu, 18 May is a “red” wash all over again. Without a national issue eg. Debt Limit, the US market is already “unpredictable” at times; let alone with one now, the US market is going to get even crazier. While trying to play the devil’s advocate on the US Debt Limit issue, I stumbled upon the article by The Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) on the economic impact based on different degrees of Debt L","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/582be0e3a7ad364f73ddd8810fd117bd","width":"1176","height":"274"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94a9fc0f6b4032fd20e5b43a823ad910","width":"1162","height":"40"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/441a150fd7800a440ba2caa444933128","width":"1109","height":"329"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970624756","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941728052,"gmtCreate":1680600805477,"gmtModify":1680600810483,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be careful....","listText":"Be careful....","text":"Be careful....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941728052","repostId":"2324996847","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2324996847","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1680585300,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2324996847?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-04 13:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Warns Stocks Are in \"Calm Before the Storm\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2324996847","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Past two weeks of inflows driven by short squeeze, fall in VIXEquities likely to ‘retest last year’s","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Past two weeks of inflows driven by short squeeze, fall in VIX</p></li><li><p>Equities likely to ‘retest last year’s low,’ Kolanovic says</p></li></ul><p>A risk-on mood fueling this year’s equities rally is likely to falter, with headwinds from bank turbulence, an oil shock and slowing growth poised to send stocks back toward their 2022 lows, according to JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The Fed indicated no intention to cut interest rates this year, yet risk assets are exhibiting an unprecedented rally, with European stocks trading near all-time highs and US stocks recovering recent losses,” Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients Monday. “We expect a reversal in risk sentiment and the market retesting last year’s low over the coming months.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Stocks have remained resilient this year despite rising interest rates that have dented corporate profits, slowed growth and triggered a series of bank collapses in the US and overseas. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 rose 7% in the first quarter after dropping nearly 20% in 2022, while gains across technology stocks have pushed the Nasdaq 100 up 20% since the start of January and into a bull market.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Tech’s outperformance has become even more magnified recently as traders ramp up bets that banking-system stresses will prompt the Federal Reserve to hit the brakes on its tightening campaign.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But in Kolanovic’s view, the inflows into stocks over the past few weeks “make little sense” and were largely driven by systemic investors, a short squeeze and a decline in the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX. </p><p>A drop in the VIX below 20, a level associated with less stressful periods, suggests investors believe the banking crisis is contained in the near term. However, Kolanovic characterizes the present market backdrop as “the calm before the storm.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“It is worth noting the accordion-like nature of risk sentiment, where restrictive rates produced an issue for various carry trades and the ensuing pullback in yields mitigated some of the stress,” Kolanovic wrote. “Although central banks are still communicating, there is ground to cover on fighting inflation and pushing back against the market’s assumption of cuts, so the original source of stress, rates higher for longer, can reenter the picture.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Warns Stocks Are in \"Calm Before the Storm\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan’s Kolanovic Warns Stocks Are in \"Calm Before the Storm\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-04 13:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-warns-stocks-are-in-calm-before-the-storm?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Past two weeks of inflows driven by short squeeze, fall in VIXEquities likely to ‘retest last year’s low,’ Kolanovic saysA risk-on mood fueling this year’s equities rally is likely to falter, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-warns-stocks-are-in-calm-before-the-storm?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-warns-stocks-are-in-calm-before-the-storm?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2324996847","content_text":"Past two weeks of inflows driven by short squeeze, fall in VIXEquities likely to ‘retest last year’s low,’ Kolanovic saysA risk-on mood fueling this year’s equities rally is likely to falter, with headwinds from bank turbulence, an oil shock and slowing growth poised to send stocks back toward their 2022 lows, according to JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic.“The Fed indicated no intention to cut interest rates this year, yet risk assets are exhibiting an unprecedented rally, with European stocks trading near all-time highs and US stocks recovering recent losses,” Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients Monday. “We expect a reversal in risk sentiment and the market retesting last year’s low over the coming months.”Stocks have remained resilient this year despite rising interest rates that have dented corporate profits, slowed growth and triggered a series of bank collapses in the US and overseas. The benchmark S&P 500 rose 7% in the first quarter after dropping nearly 20% in 2022, while gains across technology stocks have pushed the Nasdaq 100 up 20% since the start of January and into a bull market.Tech’s outperformance has become even more magnified recently as traders ramp up bets that banking-system stresses will prompt the Federal Reserve to hit the brakes on its tightening campaign.But in Kolanovic’s view, the inflows into stocks over the past few weeks “make little sense” and were largely driven by systemic investors, a short squeeze and a decline in the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX. A drop in the VIX below 20, a level associated with less stressful periods, suggests investors believe the banking crisis is contained in the near term. However, Kolanovic characterizes the present market backdrop as “the calm before the storm.” “It is worth noting the accordion-like nature of risk sentiment, where restrictive rates produced an issue for various carry trades and the ensuing pullback in yields mitigated some of the stress,” Kolanovic wrote. “Although central banks are still communicating, there is ground to cover on fighting inflation and pushing back against the market’s assumption of cuts, so the original source of stress, rates higher for longer, can reenter the picture.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941558021,"gmtCreate":1680484886664,"gmtModify":1680484888419,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Name to remember - Manan Gosalia","listText":"Name to remember - Manan Gosalia","text":"Name to remember - Manan Gosalia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941558021","repostId":"1184542811","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941551493,"gmtCreate":1680484861413,"gmtModify":1680484865047,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Name to remember -&nbsp;Manan Gosalia","listText":"Name to remember -&nbsp;Manan Gosalia","text":"Name to remember - Manan Gosalia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941551493","repostId":"1184542811","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1184542811","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1680396356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184542811?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-02 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SVB’s Fall Stunned Even the One Stock Analyst Who Said to Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184542811","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Morgan Stanley’s Gosalia was only one with sell rating on SVBHalf of Wall Street analysts had buy ra","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Morgan Stanley’s Gosalia was only one with sell rating on SVB</p></li><li><p>Half of Wall Street analysts had buy ratings up until the end</p></li></ul><p>Morgan Stanley’s Manan Gosalia saw risks gathering over Silicon Valley Bank as tech startups burned through cash.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">So in early December, he issued a warning: It was time to cut exposure to shares of SVB Financial Group, the bank’s parent company. He would remain a lone bearish voice among Wall Street analysts. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Only days before a panic drove Silicon Valley Bank into a collapse in less than 48 hours, banking analysts remained widely optimistic about the company. Half of the two dozen who tracked it were still advising investors to buy the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One forecast the share price would nearly double to $500 in a year. Even some who saw the toxic mix that would later sink the bank stuck to their hold ratings — a neutral stance that amounts to sitting on the sidelines.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In short, just like regulators and investors, they were caught off-guard by a Twitter-age bank run that shook global markets, shining a spotlight on a thorny issue that Wall Street has wrestled with for decades: The almost unfailingly rosy analysis produced by many of its research divisions. </p><p>Yet even Gosalia was shocked by how quickly Silicon Valley Bank became biggest bank failure since 2008. “No one expected the pace at which this happened,” he said.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c7328efe0c53a7a601cdf61585faf3\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p><p></p><p>In retrospect, though, the warning signs seem clear. A deposit base concentrated in a boom-and-bust industry. Rising interest rates. And massive bond holdings hit by the worst losses in decades. All it took was a catalyst to rattle the faith of its fleet-footed customers.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Still, those risks weren’t enough to prompt calls to sell from Wall Street analysts, who saw a lucrative franchise in Silicon Valley Bank’s status as the tech industry’s go-to lender. Its share price more than doubled in the two years through 2021, tracking a rally in growth stocks as the Federal Reserve flooded the markets with cash. </p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd0b2076275c5eaa5da8845b418e545\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"554\"/></p><p></p><p>In July, when the stock dropped on disappointing earnings, Michael Diana, an analyst with Maxim Group, told investors to buy the dip. “Here is the chance to buy the most unique/best-positioned bank for 2023 and the longer-term,” he wrote in a note to clients. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Diana remained Wall Street’s biggest bull, with a $500 price target on the stock right before the bank’s demise. He didn’t pull his buy rating until Silicon Valley Bank was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on March 10. Diana declined to comment.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Chris Kotowski at Oppenheimer said he wishes he had cut SVB all the way to a sell, instead of just to hold. In a January note to clients, he said the bank’s securities holdings would “be like a stone anchor.” But, like nearly a dozen others, he kept a hold rating on the stock, stopping short of advising investors to get out. He said the debacle has been a lesson in the risk of investing in banks whose fates are tied too closely to a narrow base of clients. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“There’s all these venture-capital funded companies that have $5, $10, $20, $25, sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars parked with this little bank,” he said. “And you can move money with the click of a mouse now. And then they’re all talking to one another. So in retrospect, it’s like yeah, should have seen that one coming more easily.” </p><p>In early October, Morgan Stanley’s Gosalia downgraded SVB to equal-weight, the equivalent of a hold, anticipating that the downturn in venture-capital funding would linger. At the time, he said the bank had enough liquidity to cover deposit outflows and that venture-capital funding had the potential to “accelerate significantly” once the economic outlook turned.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Later that month, the stock slipped further after SVB dialed back its forecast for net-interest income — a key metric — while assuring that its underlying business was strong.</p><p>Gosalia had doubts. In early December, he and his colleagues said they expected SVB to remain under pressure as venture—capital companies burned through funds.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Those concerns finally prompted Gosalia to downgrade SVB to underweight, the equivalent of a sell. But he saw broader industry troubles from rising funding costs, too: He dropped Signature Bank to equal-weight and cut two others — Silvergate Capital Corp. and First Republic Bank — to underweight. The first two went on to fail; First Republic’s shares tumbled nearly 90% in March on worries about its solvency.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While SVB’s shares rallied earlier this year as the company’s guidance supported a more optimistic outlook, Gosalia held firm. The rating, he said by email, was based on anticipation that “ongoing pressure on VC deployment and cash burn would weigh on the bank’s net interest income, and that the pain was not over.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The collapse began on the evening of March 8, when SVB said it planned to raise more than $2 billion of additional capital after unloading its available-for-sale securities at a loss. That snowballed into a meltdown in hours. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On March 10, the bank was taken over by the FDIC, and First Citizens BancShares Inc. has since agreed to buy Silicon Valley Bank. SVB was delisted from the Nasdaq stock exchange with a last closing price of $106. When it started trading on the over-the-counter market in late March, it hit as little as 1 cent. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The fears that undid Silicon Valley Bank have since shifted to other lenders, even with the pressures easing as US regulators take steps to restore faith in the industry. But Gosalia is mindful of what he said was a lesson of the last few weeks: “Things can change quickly in financial markets.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SVB’s Fall Stunned Even the One Stock Analyst Who Said to Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSVB’s Fall Stunned Even the One Stock Analyst Who Said to Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-02 08:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-01/svb-s-fall-stunned-even-the-one-stock-analyst-who-said-to-sell?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Morgan Stanley’s Gosalia was only one with sell rating on SVBHalf of Wall Street analysts had buy ratings up until the endMorgan Stanley’s Manan Gosalia saw risks gathering over Silicon Valley Bank as...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-01/svb-s-fall-stunned-even-the-one-stock-analyst-who-said-to-sell?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SIVBQ":"硅谷银行"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-01/svb-s-fall-stunned-even-the-one-stock-analyst-who-said-to-sell?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184542811","content_text":"Morgan Stanley’s Gosalia was only one with sell rating on SVBHalf of Wall Street analysts had buy ratings up until the endMorgan Stanley’s Manan Gosalia saw risks gathering over Silicon Valley Bank as tech startups burned through cash.So in early December, he issued a warning: It was time to cut exposure to shares of SVB Financial Group, the bank’s parent company. He would remain a lone bearish voice among Wall Street analysts. Only days before a panic drove Silicon Valley Bank into a collapse in less than 48 hours, banking analysts remained widely optimistic about the company. Half of the two dozen who tracked it were still advising investors to buy the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One forecast the share price would nearly double to $500 in a year. Even some who saw the toxic mix that would later sink the bank stuck to their hold ratings — a neutral stance that amounts to sitting on the sidelines.In short, just like regulators and investors, they were caught off-guard by a Twitter-age bank run that shook global markets, shining a spotlight on a thorny issue that Wall Street has wrestled with for decades: The almost unfailingly rosy analysis produced by many of its research divisions. Yet even Gosalia was shocked by how quickly Silicon Valley Bank became biggest bank failure since 2008. “No one expected the pace at which this happened,” he said.In retrospect, though, the warning signs seem clear. A deposit base concentrated in a boom-and-bust industry. Rising interest rates. And massive bond holdings hit by the worst losses in decades. All it took was a catalyst to rattle the faith of its fleet-footed customers.Still, those risks weren’t enough to prompt calls to sell from Wall Street analysts, who saw a lucrative franchise in Silicon Valley Bank’s status as the tech industry’s go-to lender. Its share price more than doubled in the two years through 2021, tracking a rally in growth stocks as the Federal Reserve flooded the markets with cash. In July, when the stock dropped on disappointing earnings, Michael Diana, an analyst with Maxim Group, told investors to buy the dip. “Here is the chance to buy the most unique/best-positioned bank for 2023 and the longer-term,” he wrote in a note to clients. Diana remained Wall Street’s biggest bull, with a $500 price target on the stock right before the bank’s demise. He didn’t pull his buy rating until Silicon Valley Bank was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on March 10. Diana declined to comment.Chris Kotowski at Oppenheimer said he wishes he had cut SVB all the way to a sell, instead of just to hold. In a January note to clients, he said the bank’s securities holdings would “be like a stone anchor.” But, like nearly a dozen others, he kept a hold rating on the stock, stopping short of advising investors to get out. He said the debacle has been a lesson in the risk of investing in banks whose fates are tied too closely to a narrow base of clients. “There’s all these venture-capital funded companies that have $5, $10, $20, $25, sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars parked with this little bank,” he said. “And you can move money with the click of a mouse now. And then they’re all talking to one another. So in retrospect, it’s like yeah, should have seen that one coming more easily.” In early October, Morgan Stanley’s Gosalia downgraded SVB to equal-weight, the equivalent of a hold, anticipating that the downturn in venture-capital funding would linger. At the time, he said the bank had enough liquidity to cover deposit outflows and that venture-capital funding had the potential to “accelerate significantly” once the economic outlook turned.Later that month, the stock slipped further after SVB dialed back its forecast for net-interest income — a key metric — while assuring that its underlying business was strong.Gosalia had doubts. In early December, he and his colleagues said they expected SVB to remain under pressure as venture—capital companies burned through funds.Those concerns finally prompted Gosalia to downgrade SVB to underweight, the equivalent of a sell. But he saw broader industry troubles from rising funding costs, too: He dropped Signature Bank to equal-weight and cut two others — Silvergate Capital Corp. and First Republic Bank — to underweight. The first two went on to fail; First Republic’s shares tumbled nearly 90% in March on worries about its solvency.While SVB’s shares rallied earlier this year as the company’s guidance supported a more optimistic outlook, Gosalia held firm. The rating, he said by email, was based on anticipation that “ongoing pressure on VC deployment and cash burn would weigh on the bank’s net interest income, and that the pain was not over.”The collapse began on the evening of March 8, when SVB said it planned to raise more than $2 billion of additional capital after unloading its available-for-sale securities at a loss. That snowballed into a meltdown in hours. On March 10, the bank was taken over by the FDIC, and First Citizens BancShares Inc. has since agreed to buy Silicon Valley Bank. SVB was delisted from the Nasdaq stock exchange with a last closing price of $106. When it started trading on the over-the-counter market in late March, it hit as little as 1 cent. The fears that undid Silicon Valley Bank have since shifted to other lenders, even with the pressures easing as US regulators take steps to restore faith in the industry. But Gosalia is mindful of what he said was a lesson of the last few weeks: “Things can change quickly in financial markets.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943892243,"gmtCreate":1679325275882,"gmtModify":1679325279824,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting...","listText":"Interesting...","text":"Interesting...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943892243","repostId":"9943344322","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943344322,"gmtCreate":1679195034667,"gmtModify":1679195420413,"author":{"id":"4098573842489750","authorId":"4098573842489750","name":"ToughCoyote","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58563f63b7e52669e57762bb4ebee968","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098573842489750","authorIdStr":"4098573842489750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The People's Bank of China once again announced to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, which is the same as the RRR cut in December last year. RMB 100 million, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions after the reduction is about 7.6%, this move is contrary to the Fed's interest rate hike situation, which causes the inversion of the evil interest to become larger and larger. In disguised investors, the funds of investors continue to stay in the investment of US bonds, bank fixed deposits and stock markets, which may once again affect the outflow of large foreign giants. situation.&nbsp; The reason for the domestic government's RRR cut is that the economic data is not as expected, and the year-on-year growth of r","listText":"The People's Bank of China once again announced to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, which is the same as the RRR cut in December last year. RMB 100 million, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions after the reduction is about 7.6%, this move is contrary to the Fed's interest rate hike situation, which causes the inversion of the evil interest to become larger and larger. In disguised investors, the funds of investors continue to stay in the investment of US bonds, bank fixed deposits and stock markets, which may once again affect the outflow of large foreign giants. situation.&nbsp; The reason for the domestic government's RRR cut is that the economic data is not as expected, and the year-on-year growth of r","text":"The People's Bank of China once again announced to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, which is the same as the RRR cut in December last year. RMB 100 million, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions after the reduction is about 7.6%, this move is contrary to the Fed's interest rate hike situation, which causes the inversion of the evil interest to become larger and larger. In disguised investors, the funds of investors continue to stay in the investment of US bonds, bank fixed deposits and stock markets, which may once again affect the outflow of large foreign giants. situation. The reason for the domestic government's RRR cut is that the economic data is not as expected, and the year-on-year growth of r","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943344322","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943892699,"gmtCreate":1679325233811,"gmtModify":1679325237327,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to know...","listText":"Good to know...","text":"Good to know...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943892699","repostId":"9943069699","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943069699,"gmtCreate":1678969988011,"gmtModify":1678970042055,"author":{"id":"4102740236684050","authorId":"4102740236684050","name":"MaverickWealthBuilder","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102740236684050","authorIdStr":"4102740236684050"},"themes":[],"title":"How will Credit Suisse Crisis Affect Global Banks?","htmlText":"What happened to Credit Suisse? On March 9, Credit Suisse announced that it had received technical inquiries from the SEC regarding its previously disclosed revisions to its consolidated cash flow statements for 2020 and 2019, and therefore delayed the release of its 2022 annual report. On March 14, Credit Suisse said it had identified “material weaknesses” in its internal controls over financial reporting for 2021 and 2022, and received an adverse opinion from its auditors. Credit Suisse’s share price fell by 24% on March 15, while its five-year CDS rose to nearly 1000, higher than Deutsche Bank’s crisis in 2016 and the eurozone debt crisis in 2013. This was mainly due to investor concerns about Credit Suisse and its potential adverse consequences. Credit default swaps (CDS) are credit ri","listText":"What happened to Credit Suisse? On March 9, Credit Suisse announced that it had received technical inquiries from the SEC regarding its previously disclosed revisions to its consolidated cash flow statements for 2020 and 2019, and therefore delayed the release of its 2022 annual report. On March 14, Credit Suisse said it had identified “material weaknesses” in its internal controls over financial reporting for 2021 and 2022, and received an adverse opinion from its auditors. Credit Suisse’s share price fell by 24% on March 15, while its five-year CDS rose to nearly 1000, higher than Deutsche Bank’s crisis in 2016 and the eurozone debt crisis in 2013. This was mainly due to investor concerns about Credit Suisse and its potential adverse consequences. Credit default swaps (CDS) are credit ri","text":"What happened to Credit Suisse? On March 9, Credit Suisse announced that it had received technical inquiries from the SEC regarding its previously disclosed revisions to its consolidated cash flow statements for 2020 and 2019, and therefore delayed the release of its 2022 annual report. On March 14, Credit Suisse said it had identified “material weaknesses” in its internal controls over financial reporting for 2021 and 2022, and received an adverse opinion from its auditors. Credit Suisse’s share price fell by 24% on March 15, while its five-year CDS rose to nearly 1000, higher than Deutsche Bank’s crisis in 2016 and the eurozone debt crisis in 2013. This was mainly due to investor concerns about Credit Suisse and its potential adverse consequences. Credit default swaps (CDS) are credit ri","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943069699","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943892882,"gmtCreate":1679325163247,"gmtModify":1679325167072,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alternatives..","listText":"Alternatives..","text":"Alternatives..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943892882","repostId":"9949409979","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949409979,"gmtCreate":1678796237291,"gmtModify":1697535674342,"author":{"id":"3585780691540522","authorId":"3585780691540522","name":"FundMall","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585780691540522","authorIdStr":"3585780691540522"},"themes":[],"title":"Tiger Vault| A Good Alternative to Bank Deposits?","htmlText":"After&nbsp;the <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/9949547935\" target=\"_blank\">Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Crash</a>, investors alike have rushed to withdraw their money from the U.S Banks in fear. If you, like these investors are worried about where to park your cash, we might just have the solution for you. Alternative to Bank Deposits Here at Tiger Brokers, <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/market/tiger-vault\" target=\"_blank\">Tiger Vault</a> is a cash management solution that provides investors yields of up to 4.54%* on their idle funds. You can select from mutual funds with relatively stable returns, low risk ratings, and high liquidity in the global markets. Is Tiger Vault impacted by the fall of SVB? The funds that we’ve handpicked to be part of Tiger Vault do not have any expo","listText":"After&nbsp;the <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/9949547935\" target=\"_blank\">Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Crash</a>, investors alike have rushed to withdraw their money from the U.S Banks in fear. If you, like these investors are worried about where to park your cash, we might just have the solution for you. Alternative to Bank Deposits Here at Tiger Brokers, <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/market/tiger-vault\" target=\"_blank\">Tiger Vault</a> is a cash management solution that provides investors yields of up to 4.54%* on their idle funds. You can select from mutual funds with relatively stable returns, low risk ratings, and high liquidity in the global markets. Is Tiger Vault impacted by the fall of SVB? The funds that we’ve handpicked to be part of Tiger Vault do not have any expo","text":"After the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Crash, investors alike have rushed to withdraw their money from the U.S Banks in fear. If you, like these investors are worried about where to park your cash, we might just have the solution for you. Alternative to Bank Deposits Here at Tiger Brokers, Tiger Vault is a cash management solution that provides investors yields of up to 4.54%* on their idle funds. You can select from mutual funds with relatively stable returns, low risk ratings, and high liquidity in the global markets. Is Tiger Vault impacted by the fall of SVB? The funds that we’ve handpicked to be part of Tiger Vault do not have any expo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c1b766bdb425403abc7dd4587b15524","width":"542","height":"569"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6cefd16514d53fd06fc1492555fd4249","width":"225","height":"225"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc7b1de23fcee2c9d2fc3e2379417d2a","width":"300","height":"168"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949409979","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943892161,"gmtCreate":1679324974653,"gmtModify":1679324978681,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943892161","repostId":"9943069699","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943069699,"gmtCreate":1678969988011,"gmtModify":1678970042055,"author":{"id":"4102740236684050","authorId":"4102740236684050","name":"MaverickWealthBuilder","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102740236684050","authorIdStr":"4102740236684050"},"themes":[],"title":"How will Credit Suisse Crisis Affect Global Banks?","htmlText":"What happened to Credit Suisse? On March 9, Credit Suisse announced that it had received technical inquiries from the SEC regarding its previously disclosed revisions to its consolidated cash flow statements for 2020 and 2019, and therefore delayed the release of its 2022 annual report. On March 14, Credit Suisse said it had identified “material weaknesses” in its internal controls over financial reporting for 2021 and 2022, and received an adverse opinion from its auditors. Credit Suisse’s share price fell by 24% on March 15, while its five-year CDS rose to nearly 1000, higher than Deutsche Bank’s crisis in 2016 and the eurozone debt crisis in 2013. This was mainly due to investor concerns about Credit Suisse and its potential adverse consequences. Credit default swaps (CDS) are credit ri","listText":"What happened to Credit Suisse? On March 9, Credit Suisse announced that it had received technical inquiries from the SEC regarding its previously disclosed revisions to its consolidated cash flow statements for 2020 and 2019, and therefore delayed the release of its 2022 annual report. On March 14, Credit Suisse said it had identified “material weaknesses” in its internal controls over financial reporting for 2021 and 2022, and received an adverse opinion from its auditors. Credit Suisse’s share price fell by 24% on March 15, while its five-year CDS rose to nearly 1000, higher than Deutsche Bank’s crisis in 2016 and the eurozone debt crisis in 2013. This was mainly due to investor concerns about Credit Suisse and its potential adverse consequences. Credit default swaps (CDS) are credit ri","text":"What happened to Credit Suisse? On March 9, Credit Suisse announced that it had received technical inquiries from the SEC regarding its previously disclosed revisions to its consolidated cash flow statements for 2020 and 2019, and therefore delayed the release of its 2022 annual report. On March 14, Credit Suisse said it had identified “material weaknesses” in its internal controls over financial reporting for 2021 and 2022, and received an adverse opinion from its auditors. Credit Suisse’s share price fell by 24% on March 15, while its five-year CDS rose to nearly 1000, higher than Deutsche Bank’s crisis in 2016 and the eurozone debt crisis in 2013. This was mainly due to investor concerns about Credit Suisse and its potential adverse consequences. Credit default swaps (CDS) are credit ri","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943069699","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943896543,"gmtCreate":1679324905383,"gmtModify":1679324908863,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943896543","repostId":"9949254059","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949254059,"gmtCreate":1678711240472,"gmtModify":1678772009725,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorIdStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"Wanna Know| How to Draw & Use a Support/Resistance Line","htmlText":"Hi,&nbsp;tigers.&nbsp;On&nbsp;the&nbsp;most-concerned&nbsp;questions&nbsp;of&nbsp;how&nbsp;to&nbsp;decide&nbsp;when&nbsp;to&nbsp;buy&nbsp;and&nbsp;sell&nbsp;stocks,&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4087786607644270\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4087786607644270\">@Ron18</a> and&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3570619054429964\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3570619054429964\">@Evey77</a> asked&nbsp;me&nbsp;how&nbsp;to&nbsp;draw&nbsp;a&nbsp;support&nbsp;and&nbsp;resistance&nbsp;lines.&nbsp;This&nbsp;article&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;show&nbsp;you&nbsp;the&nbsp;easiest&nbsp;part&nbsp;in&nbsp;technical&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;-&nbsp;draw&nbsp;a&nbsp;support/resistance&nbsp;line.1.&nbsp;How to draw a support/resistance line?Support/resistance lines are h","listText":"Hi,&nbsp;tigers.&nbsp;On&nbsp;the&nbsp;most-concerned&nbsp;questions&nbsp;of&nbsp;how&nbsp;to&nbsp;decide&nbsp;when&nbsp;to&nbsp;buy&nbsp;and&nbsp;sell&nbsp;stocks,&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4087786607644270\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4087786607644270\">@Ron18</a> and&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3570619054429964\"></a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3570619054429964\">@Evey77</a> asked&nbsp;me&nbsp;how&nbsp;to&nbsp;draw&nbsp;a&nbsp;support&nbsp;and&nbsp;resistance&nbsp;lines.&nbsp;This&nbsp;article&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;show&nbsp;you&nbsp;the&nbsp;easiest&nbsp;part&nbsp;in&nbsp;technical&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;-&nbsp;draw&nbsp;a&nbsp;support/resistance&nbsp;line.1.&nbsp;How to draw a support/resistance line?Support/resistance lines are h","text":"Hi, tigers. On the most-concerned questions of how to decide when to buy and sell stocks, @Ron18 and @Evey77 asked me how to draw a support and resistance lines. This article gonna show you the easiest part in technical analysis - draw a support/resistance line.1. How to draw a support/resistance line?Support/resistance lines are h","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/52f03293898f7e07ed63358bc7e214b7","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6b08740f2548b60389c56f436a3edca","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7c48a9dcc8d48e5d2d1efddafd0ed18d","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949254059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943896641,"gmtCreate":1679324846784,"gmtModify":1679324850699,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943896641","repostId":"9943920139","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943920139,"gmtCreate":1679054414522,"gmtModify":1679055167379,"author":{"id":"3527667668165440","authorId":"3527667668165440","name":"Capital_Insights","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfdc66fff48bb2b9e2d328ac5eb33100","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668165440","authorIdStr":"3527667668165440"},"themes":[],"title":"Banking Crisis is Over? Impact to Economy & Central Banks","htmlText":"On Thursday, 11 U.S. banks led by <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> , <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a> , and&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C\">$Citigroup(C)$</a> banded together to inject $30 billion in uninsured deposits into stumbling lender <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FRC\">$First Republic Bank(FRC)$</a> .Fears of a global banking crisis have eased following the rollout of multi-billion-dollar lifelines for troubled lenders in Europe and the United States.&nbsp;Stocks rose in China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines and Hong Kong on Friday:&nbsp;China’s blue-chip index gained 0.8%, while","listText":"On Thursday, 11 U.S. banks led by <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JPM\">$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$</a> , <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a> , and&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C\">$Citigroup(C)$</a> banded together to inject $30 billion in uninsured deposits into stumbling lender <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FRC\">$First Republic Bank(FRC)$</a> .Fears of a global banking crisis have eased following the rollout of multi-billion-dollar lifelines for troubled lenders in Europe and the United States.&nbsp;Stocks rose in China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines and Hong Kong on Friday:&nbsp;China’s blue-chip index gained 0.8%, while","text":"On Thursday, 11 U.S. banks led by $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , $Bank of America(BAC)$ , and $Citigroup(C)$ banded together to inject $30 billion in uninsured deposits into stumbling lender $First Republic Bank(FRC)$ .Fears of a global banking crisis have eased following the rollout of multi-billion-dollar lifelines for troubled lenders in Europe and the United States. Stocks rose in China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines and Hong Kong on Friday: China’s blue-chip index gained 0.8%, while","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0475db1ef70984e2477b560b4ab5c09e","width":"219","height":"230"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943920139","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943896054,"gmtCreate":1679324659079,"gmtModify":1679324662659,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943896054","repostId":"2320450548","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2320450548","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679229802,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2320450548?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-19 20:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bill Gates says Warren Buffett gave the best advice he's ever received—it's 'maybe the most important thing' he's learned (via @CNBCMakeIt)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2320450548","media":"CNBC:","summary":"Bill Gates says Warren Buffett gave the best advice he's ever received—it's 'maybe the most importan","content":"<div>\n<p>Bill Gates says Warren Buffett gave the best advice he's ever received—it's 'maybe the most important thing' he's learned (via @CNBCMakeIt)</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://t.co/nlz5H9meU8\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"redbox_twitter","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bill Gates says Warren Buffett gave the best advice he's ever received—it's 'maybe the most important thing' he's learned (via @CNBCMakeIt)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBill Gates says Warren Buffett gave the best advice he's ever received—it's 'maybe the most important thing' he's learned (via @CNBCMakeIt)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-19 20:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://t.co/nlz5H9meU8><strong>CNBC:</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bill Gates says Warren Buffett gave the best advice he's ever received—it's 'maybe the most important thing' he's learned (via @CNBCMakeIt)</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://t.co/nlz5H9meU8\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4176":"多领域控股","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金"},"source_url":"https://t.co/nlz5H9meU8","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2320450548","content_text":"Bill Gates says Warren Buffett gave the best advice he's ever received—it's 'maybe the most important thing' he's learned (via @CNBCMakeIt)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954058209,"gmtCreate":1675865467402,"gmtModify":1675866329191,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not true! https://tigr.link/HjFgZ","listText":"Not true! https://tigr.link/HjFgZ","text":"Not true! https://tigr.link/HjFgZ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954058209","repostId":"1123101999","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123101999","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1675846906,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123101999?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-08 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BBBY Rebounded Over 11% in Premarket Trading After Receiving $225 Million in Funding","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123101999","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Bed Bath & Beyond rebounded over 11% in premarket trading after receiving $225 million in funding.It","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</a> rebounded over 11% in premarket trading after receiving $225 million in funding.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f85b1afad823ed4daa6ae287cc2253fc\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It had raised about $225 million in an equity offering and that it was expecting to receive $800 million more in future installments, in a move that could help it stave off bankruptcy.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BBBY Rebounded Over 11% in Premarket Trading After Receiving $225 Million in Funding</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBBBY Rebounded Over 11% in Premarket Trading After Receiving $225 Million in Funding\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-08 17:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</a> rebounded over 11% in premarket trading after receiving $225 million in funding.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f85b1afad823ed4daa6ae287cc2253fc\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It had raised about $225 million in an equity offering and that it was expecting to receive $800 million more in future installments, in a move that could help it stave off bankruptcy.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"3B家居"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123101999","content_text":"Bed Bath & Beyond rebounded over 11% in premarket trading after receiving $225 million in funding.It had raised about $225 million in an equity offering and that it was expecting to receive $800 million more in future installments, in a move that could help it stave off bankruptcy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921249347,"gmtCreate":1671072772389,"gmtModify":1676538485513,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for an interesting article","listText":"Thanks for an interesting article","text":"Thanks for an interesting article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921249347","repostId":"2291571778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2291571778","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671084084,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2291571778?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-15 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291571778","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more int","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Tesla is a stock I&#39;d be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.</li><li>I&#39;ve covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $250 on the assumption that the company keeps growing fairly quickly.</li><li>Nevertheless, I always rated it &#39;hold&#39; because I thought that the uncertainty surrounding the company undermined any thesis based on future growth assumptions.</li><li>In this article, I explain why I&#39;d buy Tesla at $75, a 53.4% drop, even though its financials and growth trajectory would seem to suggest it&#39;s worth more than that.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecebf7dbd139bf94cb13d4dce8d8da49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Dimitrios Kambouris</span></p><p><b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the toughest stocks out there to analyze. On the one hand, it has strong historical growth and adominant position in its market. On the other hand, it is veryexpensive (going by valuation multiples) and its founder is constantly getting in trouble for his provocative statements. In some cases, Musk has faced legal consequences for things he has said; for example, he once had to pay a $20 million fine for claiming that he had secured funding to take Tesla private.</p><p>This time around, Twitter is what’s getting people worried about their Tesla stock holdings. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was controversial in itself, now Elon musk is raising eyebrows for his posts on the platform. It would be hard to directly quote Musk’s recent posts without running afoul of Seeking Alpha’s political comment guidelines, so I will simply leave links to them off-platform here and here. Suffice it to say, the comments made some people very,<i>very</i> upset.</p><p>Shortly after Elon posted his two notorious Tweets, Tesla stock fell 6.3% in a single trading day. There was little material news about TSLA on the day that crash happened; the most recent big story was a bullish one about a surge in deliveries from Tesla Shanghai. Most likely, Musk’s tweets caused the selloff. Given the lack of other negative news, it’s the default assumption.</p><p>For me personally, nothing Musk is doing makes Tesla an “avoid at any price” stock. Tesla has great brand recognition, strong growth, and just recently got its tax credits back. The stock has a lot of things going for it. However, Musk’s risk taking is a serious enough concern for me to demand some kind of discount.</p><p>In past articles, I got fair value estimates for Tesla well above the current stock price. However, I never rated the stock any higher than a hold; in one article I rated it a sell. The reason for that is the immense uncertainty that Tesla is subject to. Whether it’s Musk’s Tweets or the federal investigation of the Twitter deal, there are many risk factors, some of which could impede the growth that makes the stock appear to have such a great future. For this reason, I’d want to see a price of $75 or lower before I’d buy the stock, even though I get value estimates above $200 when I value it by conventional means.</p><h2>My Past Coverage of Tesla</h2><p>In past articles, I’ve usually found Tesla to be worth something like $200-$300, going by a combination of multiples and discounted cash flows. In some cases, those prices were above the market price, but I never gave the stock a ‘buy’ rating, because I felt there were too many risks to the growth story. Some examples of valuations I arrived at include:</p><ul><li><p>$338 in “Tesla: the $4 Trillion Price Target is a Red Flag.”</p></li><li><p>$879 ($293 in post-split terms) in “Tesla: the EV Tax Credit is a Huge Catalyst.”</p></li><li><p>A sell rating (no specific price target) in “Long BYD, Short Tesla: a Great Tactical Pair Trade.”</p></li></ul><p>Now, you might wonder why I keep rating Tesla ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ when my models always give it upside. The reason has to do with how discounted cash flow models are constructed. You have to estimate future cash flows in order to make the math work, there’s no way around it. Tesla’s historical growth is extremely strong, and even if you cut the future growth estimates to half or a third of the actual historical growth, you still end up with pretty high price targets. In some of my previous articles, I cut Tesla’s future growth estimate down to the projected growth in the EV industry, which is a lot slower than Tesla’s actual growth rate. It still resulted in upside.</p><p>Still, I can’t rate the stock a buy, because I do think the risks here are serious enough to potentially end Tesla’s growth streak.</p><p>The first is demographics. Musk’s recent Twitter posts haven’t been received well by the demographics that tend to buy electric cars. Recently, Musk appeared on stage at a Dave Chapelle performance in San Francisco–the city with the second highest number of EV chargers in the U.S.--and was ‘booed’ by some audience members. This evidence might seem anecdotal, but it is known that Musk has low approval ratings in EV-friendly states like Oregon. Combining hard data with news reports, one gets the sense that Elon Musk isn’t being received well in States that are pushing green energy.</p><p>EV ownership in the U.S. skews toward affluent, educated, progressive-leaning individuals. Tesla has more conservative customers than other EV companies do, but it still has more democrat than republican owners. Many commentators believe that Musk’s recent Twitter posts have been designed to court conservative support. It is known that Musk is popular among conservatives, and he seems to be trying to shore up that support, but the problem is that Tesla’s customers come from other groups.</p><p>It’s not clear that Musk has angered enough people to get large numbers of them abandoning Tesla. A few people have said that they would buy Chevy Bolts in retaliation for Musk’s Twitter posts, but sales forecasts suggest there aren’t that many of them. By all accounts, Tesla’s sales are growing, not declining. Still, there is a possibility of Elon Musk alienating his core customer base; if he does so, we’d expect Tesla’s sales to take a hit.</p><p>There’s no shortage of companies selling electric cars. We’ve got European companies like <b>Volkswagen</b> (OTCPK:VWAGY), American companies like <b>General Motors</b> (GM) and Chinese companies like <b>NIO</b> (NIO) building EVs now. If the people who are upset about Musk’s job at Twitter wanted to ditch Tesla, they could do so. So a loss of sales is in principle a potential risk factor.</p><p>There’s also Musk’s selling of Twitter stock. As a long-term value investor, this does not really count as a risk to me, but it is a risk to those taking short term positions. Musk had to sell Tesla stock to put up collateral for the Twitter loans. He has sold at least $16.4 billion worth of TSLA, or 3.15% of the float. Insider selling of that magnitude can push a stock’s price downward, as stock prices are a function of supply and demand. If you don’t own Tesla stock now, and want to take a long-term position in the future, this is only good news, but for somebody who already owns Tesla stock, with no plans to average down, it’s very bad. If you already own Tesla and are hoping to get back to purchase prices well above $200, you might be waiting a while. Musk is rattling investor confidence and he may have more sales planned. If you don’t own Tesla stock, or own a little and plan on averaging down, then read on, because in the next section I explain why Tesla stock would be genuinely interesting at $75.</p><h2>Why Tesla Would Be Interesting at $75</h2><p>In previous sections, I explained why Tesla, with moderate growth assumptions, appeared to be worth $200 or more. In a DCF model it only takes about 20% growth in free cash flow for TSLA to come out with a fair value estimate well above $200. However, two things have to be kept in mind:</p><ol><li><p>Interest rates are rising.</p></li><li><p>There are genuine risks to Tesla’s operating performance.</p></li></ol><p>Interest rates going up takes a bite out of the value of cash flows from any company, and Elon Musk’s political commentary puts Tesla’s U.S. revenue at risk. So, a new Tesla model is needed to account for the risks. In past models, I discounted TSLA stock at just 8%. That’s a discount rate that includes a risk premium, but not a very large one. Today, Tesla is in the political crosshairs to an extent not seen when I wrote my last Tesla article, so more risk needs to be accounted for.</p><p>There are two ways to do this:</p><ol><li><p>Simply run one of my previous models at a far higher discount rate.</p></li><li><p>Lower the growth assumption.</p></li></ol><p>The first method is pretty straightforward. If you take my previous model that got a $338 FV estimate, and up the discount rate to 15%, you get a $111 price target. I think buying Tesla at that level would be basically sensible, but it helps to go even stricter still. Remember: when you buy TSLA shares, you’re paying for a lot of future growth. The nature of a ‘financial risk’ is that it can cause growth to disappear, and profits to turn into losses, so we need to account for those scenarios.</p><p>I do not think we need to model for a scenario where Tesla’s growth becomes negative. Tesla sells a lot of cars in China, a country that is not plugged into U.S. social media discourse, and where Elon Musk’s private behavior probably isn’t a concern for very many people. The U.S. market position does seem to be at risk, so we can model for a scenario where growth declines to 0%, based on current trends continuing in China while U.S. sales decline. Note that I don’t think this scenario will actually occur, it just helps to model worst case scenarios.</p><p>Under zero growth assumptions, we can simply value TSLA in terms of terminal value. This is where you discount free cash flow at a chosen discount rate. The range we get for Tesla, using 3.5% (no risk premium) and 15% (extremely large risk premium) is shown below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f7a6ae9f247b5aac92b75634596020\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"138\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, to sum up, our total range of values under, when we account for immense risk, goes from:</p><ul><li><p>$19.33 (high discount rate, no growth).</p></li><li><p>$111 (high discount rate, high growth).</p></li></ul><p>The mean of the high and low values is $65. If you want to be extremely conservative, aim for $65 before buying Tesla. Personally, I’d probably buy at $75, because the worst-case scenarios I’m modelling for here are rather extreme. Most likely Tesla will do better than 0% growth. But in an environment of rising rates, it pays to play it safe. For the most risk averse investors, Tesla does not appear to be a buy.</p><p>This article is written by Growth at a Good Price for reference only. Please note the risks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-15 14:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.I've covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291571778","content_text":"SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.I've covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $250 on the assumption that the company keeps growing fairly quickly.Nevertheless, I always rated it 'hold' because I thought that the uncertainty surrounding the company undermined any thesis based on future growth assumptions.In this article, I explain why I'd buy Tesla at $75, a 53.4% drop, even though its financials and growth trajectory would seem to suggest it's worth more than that.Dimitrios KambourisTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the toughest stocks out there to analyze. On the one hand, it has strong historical growth and adominant position in its market. On the other hand, it is veryexpensive (going by valuation multiples) and its founder is constantly getting in trouble for his provocative statements. In some cases, Musk has faced legal consequences for things he has said; for example, he once had to pay a $20 million fine for claiming that he had secured funding to take Tesla private.This time around, Twitter is what’s getting people worried about their Tesla stock holdings. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was controversial in itself, now Elon musk is raising eyebrows for his posts on the platform. It would be hard to directly quote Musk’s recent posts without running afoul of Seeking Alpha’s political comment guidelines, so I will simply leave links to them off-platform here and here. Suffice it to say, the comments made some people very,very upset.Shortly after Elon posted his two notorious Tweets, Tesla stock fell 6.3% in a single trading day. There was little material news about TSLA on the day that crash happened; the most recent big story was a bullish one about a surge in deliveries from Tesla Shanghai. Most likely, Musk’s tweets caused the selloff. Given the lack of other negative news, it’s the default assumption.For me personally, nothing Musk is doing makes Tesla an “avoid at any price” stock. Tesla has great brand recognition, strong growth, and just recently got its tax credits back. The stock has a lot of things going for it. However, Musk’s risk taking is a serious enough concern for me to demand some kind of discount.In past articles, I got fair value estimates for Tesla well above the current stock price. However, I never rated the stock any higher than a hold; in one article I rated it a sell. The reason for that is the immense uncertainty that Tesla is subject to. Whether it’s Musk’s Tweets or the federal investigation of the Twitter deal, there are many risk factors, some of which could impede the growth that makes the stock appear to have such a great future. For this reason, I’d want to see a price of $75 or lower before I’d buy the stock, even though I get value estimates above $200 when I value it by conventional means.My Past Coverage of TeslaIn past articles, I’ve usually found Tesla to be worth something like $200-$300, going by a combination of multiples and discounted cash flows. In some cases, those prices were above the market price, but I never gave the stock a ‘buy’ rating, because I felt there were too many risks to the growth story. Some examples of valuations I arrived at include:$338 in “Tesla: the $4 Trillion Price Target is a Red Flag.”$879 ($293 in post-split terms) in “Tesla: the EV Tax Credit is a Huge Catalyst.”A sell rating (no specific price target) in “Long BYD, Short Tesla: a Great Tactical Pair Trade.”Now, you might wonder why I keep rating Tesla ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ when my models always give it upside. The reason has to do with how discounted cash flow models are constructed. You have to estimate future cash flows in order to make the math work, there’s no way around it. Tesla’s historical growth is extremely strong, and even if you cut the future growth estimates to half or a third of the actual historical growth, you still end up with pretty high price targets. In some of my previous articles, I cut Tesla’s future growth estimate down to the projected growth in the EV industry, which is a lot slower than Tesla’s actual growth rate. It still resulted in upside.Still, I can’t rate the stock a buy, because I do think the risks here are serious enough to potentially end Tesla’s growth streak.The first is demographics. Musk’s recent Twitter posts haven’t been received well by the demographics that tend to buy electric cars. Recently, Musk appeared on stage at a Dave Chapelle performance in San Francisco–the city with the second highest number of EV chargers in the U.S.--and was ‘booed’ by some audience members. This evidence might seem anecdotal, but it is known that Musk has low approval ratings in EV-friendly states like Oregon. Combining hard data with news reports, one gets the sense that Elon Musk isn’t being received well in States that are pushing green energy.EV ownership in the U.S. skews toward affluent, educated, progressive-leaning individuals. Tesla has more conservative customers than other EV companies do, but it still has more democrat than republican owners. Many commentators believe that Musk’s recent Twitter posts have been designed to court conservative support. It is known that Musk is popular among conservatives, and he seems to be trying to shore up that support, but the problem is that Tesla’s customers come from other groups.It’s not clear that Musk has angered enough people to get large numbers of them abandoning Tesla. A few people have said that they would buy Chevy Bolts in retaliation for Musk’s Twitter posts, but sales forecasts suggest there aren’t that many of them. By all accounts, Tesla’s sales are growing, not declining. Still, there is a possibility of Elon Musk alienating his core customer base; if he does so, we’d expect Tesla’s sales to take a hit.There’s no shortage of companies selling electric cars. We’ve got European companies like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), American companies like General Motors (GM) and Chinese companies like NIO (NIO) building EVs now. If the people who are upset about Musk’s job at Twitter wanted to ditch Tesla, they could do so. So a loss of sales is in principle a potential risk factor.There’s also Musk’s selling of Twitter stock. As a long-term value investor, this does not really count as a risk to me, but it is a risk to those taking short term positions. Musk had to sell Tesla stock to put up collateral for the Twitter loans. He has sold at least $16.4 billion worth of TSLA, or 3.15% of the float. Insider selling of that magnitude can push a stock’s price downward, as stock prices are a function of supply and demand. If you don’t own Tesla stock now, and want to take a long-term position in the future, this is only good news, but for somebody who already owns Tesla stock, with no plans to average down, it’s very bad. If you already own Tesla and are hoping to get back to purchase prices well above $200, you might be waiting a while. Musk is rattling investor confidence and he may have more sales planned. If you don’t own Tesla stock, or own a little and plan on averaging down, then read on, because in the next section I explain why Tesla stock would be genuinely interesting at $75.Why Tesla Would Be Interesting at $75In previous sections, I explained why Tesla, with moderate growth assumptions, appeared to be worth $200 or more. In a DCF model it only takes about 20% growth in free cash flow for TSLA to come out with a fair value estimate well above $200. However, two things have to be kept in mind:Interest rates are rising.There are genuine risks to Tesla’s operating performance.Interest rates going up takes a bite out of the value of cash flows from any company, and Elon Musk’s political commentary puts Tesla’s U.S. revenue at risk. So, a new Tesla model is needed to account for the risks. In past models, I discounted TSLA stock at just 8%. That’s a discount rate that includes a risk premium, but not a very large one. Today, Tesla is in the political crosshairs to an extent not seen when I wrote my last Tesla article, so more risk needs to be accounted for.There are two ways to do this:Simply run one of my previous models at a far higher discount rate.Lower the growth assumption.The first method is pretty straightforward. If you take my previous model that got a $338 FV estimate, and up the discount rate to 15%, you get a $111 price target. I think buying Tesla at that level would be basically sensible, but it helps to go even stricter still. Remember: when you buy TSLA shares, you’re paying for a lot of future growth. The nature of a ‘financial risk’ is that it can cause growth to disappear, and profits to turn into losses, so we need to account for those scenarios.I do not think we need to model for a scenario where Tesla’s growth becomes negative. Tesla sells a lot of cars in China, a country that is not plugged into U.S. social media discourse, and where Elon Musk’s private behavior probably isn’t a concern for very many people. The U.S. market position does seem to be at risk, so we can model for a scenario where growth declines to 0%, based on current trends continuing in China while U.S. sales decline. Note that I don’t think this scenario will actually occur, it just helps to model worst case scenarios.Under zero growth assumptions, we can simply value TSLA in terms of terminal value. This is where you discount free cash flow at a chosen discount rate. The range we get for Tesla, using 3.5% (no risk premium) and 15% (extremely large risk premium) is shown below.So, to sum up, our total range of values under, when we account for immense risk, goes from:$19.33 (high discount rate, no growth).$111 (high discount rate, high growth).The mean of the high and low values is $65. If you want to be extremely conservative, aim for $65 before buying Tesla. Personally, I’d probably buy at $75, because the worst-case scenarios I’m modelling for here are rather extreme. Most likely Tesla will do better than 0% growth. But in an environment of rising rates, it pays to play it safe. For the most risk averse investors, Tesla does not appear to be a buy.This article is written by Growth at a Good Price for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9916211045,"gmtCreate":1664597701788,"gmtModify":1676537483091,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for your insight","listText":"Thanks for your insight","text":"Thanks for your insight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916211045","repostId":"1193309788","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193309788","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664595315,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193309788?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-01 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A New Problem Is Emerging","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193309788","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe world is experiencing an energy crisis. Costs for natural gas, electricity, etc. are exploding.With soaring electricity costs, EVs are losing their fuel cost advantage. Charging a Tesla has","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The world is experiencing an energy crisis. Costs for natural gas, electricity, etc. are exploding.</li><li>With soaring electricity costs, EVs are losing their fuel cost advantage. Charging a Tesla has become more expensive than fueling a comparable ICE vehicle in Europe, for example.</li><li>With the macro picture getting more dire, highly expensive Tesla does not look like a great investment today.</li></ul><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is a leading electric vehicle manufacturer. The stock is priced for perfection, however, despite growing competition, rising costs for materials, and a global economic slowdown. On top of that, the ongoing global energy crisis is hurting Tesla in two ways, as I&#39;ll explain in this article. Overall, that means that Tesla does not seem like an attractive pick at current prices, I believe.</p><p><b>The Globe Is Experiencing An Energy Crisis</b></p><p>The world&#39;s hunger for energy continues to grow, as it has for many years. At the same time, ESG mandates and regulatory pressures have led to underinvestment in (fossil) energy production, which has resulted in a tight supply-demand situation. On top of that, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has exacerbated issues in global energy markets. That has led to exploding energy prices across all kinds of commodities. Rising gasoline prices have gotten a lot of attention, but price increases were even more pronounced in other areas:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310db03212b3ca50edd73f7cf9c0099f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>WTI is up by just a couple of percentage points over the last year, while gasoline has become 17% more expensive over the last twelve months. Especially in Europe and Asia, price increases of non-oil-based energy products have been way more drastic.</p><p>Natural gas prices in Europe, for example, have exploded upwards by more than 1,000% over the last two years:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/154cf787e37dbe1b284b31742d65d999\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>theice.com</p><p>Contracts rose from $15 two years ago to more than $200 today, dwarfing the increase in oil prices. Natural gas in Asia, e.g. measured by JKM, has become incredibly more expensive as well. Likewise, electricity has become way more expensive in Europe -- driven, to a large degree, by the huge increase in natural gas prices:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673c6fced99747383340bf173bad26c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>tradingview.com</p><p>Market prices (day-ahead) for electricity soared by several hundred percentage points over the last year in leading European countries such as Germany and France. Price increases for forward months have been even higher, e.g. for the coming winter months.Base load prices for Q1 2023 are north of €500 per MWh in Germany, for example. Peak-load prices for the same quarter are even higher, at close to €800 per MWh.</p><p>In many other markets around the world, electricity is scarce and has become very expensive as well. China is of note, for example. Weather anomalies in the country have led to below-average power generation from hydro, which has led to shortages and steep price increases.</p><p>Overall, we can summarize that energy has become way more expensive in many areas of the world. Oil prices and gasoline prices get a lot of attention, but they have actually not moved up much versus the massive increases by hundreds of percentage points we have seen in electricity, natural gas, and even thermal coal-- which is up 350% over the last five years. Why does this matter for Tesla? Let&#39;s delve into the details.</p><p><b>Impact On Tesla: Items To Consider</b></p><p>So why does it matter that the global energy crisis has led to massive increases in the price of natural gas, electricity, etc. when it comes to an investment in TSLA stock? There are several negative impacts this will have on Tesla, I believe. Some of those are Tesla-specific, others impact other automobile companies as well.</p><p><b>Free Supercharger</b></p><p>First, Tesla will lose more money with the free supercharger for life deal it offered in the past. With electricity costs soaring, those that can charge for free at superchargers will be more inclined to do so. This will mean that Tesla will have to offer more electricity for free. At the same time, that electricity comes at a higher cost for Tesla, as market prices for electricity have soared in important end markets. Overall, this means that Tesla will lose more money on its supercharger-for-life deals than previously thought.</p><p><b>EVs Lose Their Cost Advantage</b></p><p>For a long time, EVs were touted as cheaper than ICE-powered vehicles when it comes to fuel costs. But due to the massive increase in electricity prices, relative to the way more benign increase in gasoline prices, that does no longer hold true. Let&#39;s look at an example.</p><p>The Tesla Model 3 uses 17 kWh per 100 km. A comparable ICE car, such as the BMW 3 series (OTCPK:BMWYY), uses around 5.0 liters of diesel for the same 100 km. When electricity prices were way lower than they are right now, that made for a clear cost advantage for Tesla. But more recently, that&#39;s no longer true -- at least not in all markets. Tesla currently sells electricity for €0.70 per kWh at its superchargers in Germany, where it recently opened one of its Gigafactories, making this an important market for Tesla. That means that driving a Model 3 for 100 km results in fuel expenses of €11.90, or around $11.50. Diesel currently costs €1.98 per liter in Germany on average. The BMW 3 series thus uses €9.90, or $9.60 per 100 km. Using an ICE-powered BMW that is comparable to Tesla&#39;s EV thus costs around 20% less in fuel expenses today in Germany. The former cost advantage for EVs has turned into a cost disadvantage in Europe&#39;s biggest market and one where Tesla thought it had a lot of potential -- otherwise, it wouldn&#39;t have built a Gigafactory there. In other European countries, things are looking comparable. In the UK, for example, the diesel-powered BMW 3 costs around $10 per 100 km, while the Tesla Model 3 costs around $11 per 100 km.</p><p>This means that one of the key arguments for buying an EV, lower fuel costs, is no longer valid, at least in some of Tesla&#39;s markets. In the US, where electricity cost per kWh differs very much from state to state, there are some markets where EVs are still cheaper to fuel. But even in the US, some markets are more favorable for ICE vehicles right now, such as California with its high electricity prices. With this key argument for switching to an EV gone, EV manufacturers such as Tesla could have a harder time convincing consumers to make the switch. Many consumers, especially those that feel the pinch from the current economic slowdown, will ask themselves why they should buy a new vehicle for many thousands of dollars just to have their fuel expenses go up.</p><p><b>Higher Production Costs</b></p><p>The process of manufacturing batteries is highly energy intensive. That energy usually does not come in the form of oil (which has gone up in price only slightly), but typically in the form of electricity -- which has gotten way more expensive. Battery manufacturing thus is feeling a considerable cost headwind in the current environment, and the biggest battery users in the world, such as Tesla, will likely feel the largest impact.</p><p>In Europe and China, energy-intensive manufacturing is oftentimes either unprofitable or forced to scale back due to regulatory demands to conserve energy. This will hinder Tesla&#39;s Gigafactories in Germany and China, making it quite exposed to electricity/energy shortages around the world. EV companies with less exposure to Europe and China, such as Ford with its US focus, could be more advantaged in the current environment, as energy shortages are less pronounced in the United States.</p><p><b>Cash-Strapped Consumers Might Keep Their Cars Longer</b></p><p>With energy prices soaring, especially in Europe, consumer sentiment is falling off a cliff. Consumers have to spend more on essentials such as electricity, heating, and food, which means that they have less money left over for non-essential, discretionary consumer goods.</p><p>Ultra-high-end manufacturers such as Ferrari (RACE) will likely feel less of an impact, as middle-class households don&#39;t buy Ferraris anyway and as very wealthy consumers don&#39;t feel much of a pinch from higher energy costs. But Tesla, along with competitors such as BMW or Audi, could feel an impact from middle class/upper middle class consumers becoming more frugal. When essential expenses are soaring, and when the risk of a job loss increases due to the ongoing economic downturn, many consumers will be more reluctant to acquire a costly new vehicle. One can argue that this is already being reflected by the declining wait times for many of Tesla&#39;s models in China, which is experiencing many of the same headwinds as Europe -- growing energy costs and an economic slowdown.</p><p><b>Summing Things Up</b></p><p>Tesla is a leading EV company. Depending on whether one counts plug-in hybrids or not, it&#39;s either the largest or second-largest EV manufacturer in the world. But the company is highly expensive, trading at well above 60x forward earnings, while traditional auto peers such as Mercedes (OTCPK:MBGYY) trade at less than 5x forward profits. Competition is growing, input costs are rising quickly, and consumer discretionary companies including Tesla are highly exposed to a global economic downturn.</p><p>Add the above issues stemming from the global energy shortage, such as waning advantages for EVs due to high charging costs and Tesla&#39;s growing costs for its supercharger-for-life deals, and it does not look like Tesla is a good buy today. Last but not least, rising interest rates are pressuring all equities, but have the largest impact on long-duration stocks such as Tesla. Overall, I see more reasons to be bearish than to be bullish right here, which is why I think Tesla is an avoid today, although I have no intention of going short the stock.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A New Problem Is Emerging</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A New Problem Is Emerging\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-01 11:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543975-tesla-stock-new-problem-emerging><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe world is experiencing an energy crisis. Costs for natural gas, electricity, etc. are exploding.With soaring electricity costs, EVs are losing their fuel cost advantage. Charging a Tesla has...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543975-tesla-stock-new-problem-emerging\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543975-tesla-stock-new-problem-emerging","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193309788","content_text":"SummaryThe world is experiencing an energy crisis. Costs for natural gas, electricity, etc. are exploding.With soaring electricity costs, EVs are losing their fuel cost advantage. Charging a Tesla has become more expensive than fueling a comparable ICE vehicle in Europe, for example.With the macro picture getting more dire, highly expensive Tesla does not look like a great investment today.Article ThesisTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is a leading electric vehicle manufacturer. The stock is priced for perfection, however, despite growing competition, rising costs for materials, and a global economic slowdown. On top of that, the ongoing global energy crisis is hurting Tesla in two ways, as I'll explain in this article. Overall, that means that Tesla does not seem like an attractive pick at current prices, I believe.The Globe Is Experiencing An Energy CrisisThe world's hunger for energy continues to grow, as it has for many years. At the same time, ESG mandates and regulatory pressures have led to underinvestment in (fossil) energy production, which has resulted in a tight supply-demand situation. On top of that, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has exacerbated issues in global energy markets. That has led to exploding energy prices across all kinds of commodities. Rising gasoline prices have gotten a lot of attention, but price increases were even more pronounced in other areas:Data by YChartsWTI is up by just a couple of percentage points over the last year, while gasoline has become 17% more expensive over the last twelve months. Especially in Europe and Asia, price increases of non-oil-based energy products have been way more drastic.Natural gas prices in Europe, for example, have exploded upwards by more than 1,000% over the last two years:theice.comContracts rose from $15 two years ago to more than $200 today, dwarfing the increase in oil prices. Natural gas in Asia, e.g. measured by JKM, has become incredibly more expensive as well. Likewise, electricity has become way more expensive in Europe -- driven, to a large degree, by the huge increase in natural gas prices:tradingview.comMarket prices (day-ahead) for electricity soared by several hundred percentage points over the last year in leading European countries such as Germany and France. Price increases for forward months have been even higher, e.g. for the coming winter months.Base load prices for Q1 2023 are north of €500 per MWh in Germany, for example. Peak-load prices for the same quarter are even higher, at close to €800 per MWh.In many other markets around the world, electricity is scarce and has become very expensive as well. China is of note, for example. Weather anomalies in the country have led to below-average power generation from hydro, which has led to shortages and steep price increases.Overall, we can summarize that energy has become way more expensive in many areas of the world. Oil prices and gasoline prices get a lot of attention, but they have actually not moved up much versus the massive increases by hundreds of percentage points we have seen in electricity, natural gas, and even thermal coal-- which is up 350% over the last five years. Why does this matter for Tesla? Let's delve into the details.Impact On Tesla: Items To ConsiderSo why does it matter that the global energy crisis has led to massive increases in the price of natural gas, electricity, etc. when it comes to an investment in TSLA stock? There are several negative impacts this will have on Tesla, I believe. Some of those are Tesla-specific, others impact other automobile companies as well.Free SuperchargerFirst, Tesla will lose more money with the free supercharger for life deal it offered in the past. With electricity costs soaring, those that can charge for free at superchargers will be more inclined to do so. This will mean that Tesla will have to offer more electricity for free. At the same time, that electricity comes at a higher cost for Tesla, as market prices for electricity have soared in important end markets. Overall, this means that Tesla will lose more money on its supercharger-for-life deals than previously thought.EVs Lose Their Cost AdvantageFor a long time, EVs were touted as cheaper than ICE-powered vehicles when it comes to fuel costs. But due to the massive increase in electricity prices, relative to the way more benign increase in gasoline prices, that does no longer hold true. Let's look at an example.The Tesla Model 3 uses 17 kWh per 100 km. A comparable ICE car, such as the BMW 3 series (OTCPK:BMWYY), uses around 5.0 liters of diesel for the same 100 km. When electricity prices were way lower than they are right now, that made for a clear cost advantage for Tesla. But more recently, that's no longer true -- at least not in all markets. Tesla currently sells electricity for €0.70 per kWh at its superchargers in Germany, where it recently opened one of its Gigafactories, making this an important market for Tesla. That means that driving a Model 3 for 100 km results in fuel expenses of €11.90, or around $11.50. Diesel currently costs €1.98 per liter in Germany on average. The BMW 3 series thus uses €9.90, or $9.60 per 100 km. Using an ICE-powered BMW that is comparable to Tesla's EV thus costs around 20% less in fuel expenses today in Germany. The former cost advantage for EVs has turned into a cost disadvantage in Europe's biggest market and one where Tesla thought it had a lot of potential -- otherwise, it wouldn't have built a Gigafactory there. In other European countries, things are looking comparable. In the UK, for example, the diesel-powered BMW 3 costs around $10 per 100 km, while the Tesla Model 3 costs around $11 per 100 km.This means that one of the key arguments for buying an EV, lower fuel costs, is no longer valid, at least in some of Tesla's markets. In the US, where electricity cost per kWh differs very much from state to state, there are some markets where EVs are still cheaper to fuel. But even in the US, some markets are more favorable for ICE vehicles right now, such as California with its high electricity prices. With this key argument for switching to an EV gone, EV manufacturers such as Tesla could have a harder time convincing consumers to make the switch. Many consumers, especially those that feel the pinch from the current economic slowdown, will ask themselves why they should buy a new vehicle for many thousands of dollars just to have their fuel expenses go up.Higher Production CostsThe process of manufacturing batteries is highly energy intensive. That energy usually does not come in the form of oil (which has gone up in price only slightly), but typically in the form of electricity -- which has gotten way more expensive. Battery manufacturing thus is feeling a considerable cost headwind in the current environment, and the biggest battery users in the world, such as Tesla, will likely feel the largest impact.In Europe and China, energy-intensive manufacturing is oftentimes either unprofitable or forced to scale back due to regulatory demands to conserve energy. This will hinder Tesla's Gigafactories in Germany and China, making it quite exposed to electricity/energy shortages around the world. EV companies with less exposure to Europe and China, such as Ford with its US focus, could be more advantaged in the current environment, as energy shortages are less pronounced in the United States.Cash-Strapped Consumers Might Keep Their Cars LongerWith energy prices soaring, especially in Europe, consumer sentiment is falling off a cliff. Consumers have to spend more on essentials such as electricity, heating, and food, which means that they have less money left over for non-essential, discretionary consumer goods.Ultra-high-end manufacturers such as Ferrari (RACE) will likely feel less of an impact, as middle-class households don't buy Ferraris anyway and as very wealthy consumers don't feel much of a pinch from higher energy costs. But Tesla, along with competitors such as BMW or Audi, could feel an impact from middle class/upper middle class consumers becoming more frugal. When essential expenses are soaring, and when the risk of a job loss increases due to the ongoing economic downturn, many consumers will be more reluctant to acquire a costly new vehicle. One can argue that this is already being reflected by the declining wait times for many of Tesla's models in China, which is experiencing many of the same headwinds as Europe -- growing energy costs and an economic slowdown.Summing Things UpTesla is a leading EV company. Depending on whether one counts plug-in hybrids or not, it's either the largest or second-largest EV manufacturer in the world. But the company is highly expensive, trading at well above 60x forward earnings, while traditional auto peers such as Mercedes (OTCPK:MBGYY) trade at less than 5x forward profits. Competition is growing, input costs are rising quickly, and consumer discretionary companies including Tesla are highly exposed to a global economic downturn.Add the above issues stemming from the global energy shortage, such as waning advantages for EVs due to high charging costs and Tesla's growing costs for its supercharger-for-life deals, and it does not look like Tesla is a good buy today. Last but not least, rising interest rates are pressuring all equities, but have the largest impact on long-duration stocks such as Tesla. Overall, I see more reasons to be bearish than to be bullish right here, which is why I think Tesla is an avoid today, although I have no intention of going short the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":47,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937615790,"gmtCreate":1663418771110,"gmtModify":1676537268043,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01288\">$ABC(01288)$</a>🤨","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01288\">$ABC(01288)$</a>🤨","text":"$ABC(01288)$🤨","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c0e77399293a4a3de76bfa8e6c149ef1","width":"1170","height":"4039"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937615790","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918845275,"gmtCreate":1664368026798,"gmtModify":1676537441537,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for an insightful&nbsp;write-up","listText":"Thanks for an insightful&nbsp;write-up","text":"Thanks for an insightful write-up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918845275","repostId":"1102244542","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102244542","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664378284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102244542?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-28 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: A Bearish Sign For The First Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102244542","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple has been a solid company with solid fundamentals for the better part of the past 20 yea","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Apple has been a solid company with solid fundamentals for the better part of the past 20 years, but there&#39;s a recent sign that has me worried.</li><li>With the lack of new or innovative technologies, it can become a problem for the tech behemoth in the coming years.</li><li>As a result, I shift my bullish stance to a neutral to a slightly bearish one.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> has been one of the best and most solid investments for the better part of the past 20 years. As it released the iPhone in 2007, it began raking in amounts of money most other companies can only dream of and now they bring in billions from things like their Services segments, which is larger than some other companies bring in altogether.</p><p>But this past year there&#39;s been a warning sign I was looking out for a long time - as they shed their cash reserves for share buybacks and other compensation, they&#39;re losing their edge in the amount of investment and interest income they generate and now, for the very first time, they are paying more in interest expense than they&#39;re bringing in.</p><p>This in and of itself isn&#39;t all that bad considering they rake in about $100 billion in net income while paying just shy of $3 billion annually in interest expense. But with the lack of new innovative products, they&#39;ve been relying more on telecom companies&#39; incentive to sell their new iPhone than organic excitement.</p><p>Let&#39;s dive into the issues I see.</p><h3>Debt Load &amp; Interest Expense</h3><p>Beginning in 2013, the company started taking on long-term and short-term debt while interest rates were near zero to finance their operations while conserving cash overseas and investing it to bring in interest, which more than covered the interest expense on the low-interest debt. Since then, the debt has ballooned from about $16 billion to just shy of $110 billion, which was down to about $95 billion as of their latest financial reporting.</p><p>But then the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates and the company began paying more in interest expense. After the repatriation holiday in 2017, Apple brought back a big amount of their overseas cash which was being invested and spent the vast majority of it for share buybacks and other shareholder-friendly activities, which lowered their interest income.</p><p>Even though, as I mentioned earlier, the company has reduced their debt from $110 billion to $95 billion, their interest expense for the same time period increased from $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion. Although these numbers pale in comparison to their income and revenue generation, it&#39;s somewhat concerning in the long run given where interest rates are headed and the lower cash reserves the company has.</p><h3>Cash, Investments and Interest Income</h3><p>The company&#39;s cash and equivalents and short-term investments have been rising for the longest time as the company accumulated cash, but over the past few years, the company announced that it intended at getting to a cash-neutral position and spending it to fund share buybacks and other shareholder-friendly activities.</p><p>Apple had more than $100 billion in cash and short-term investment in September 2017, which decreased to under $50 billion as of today.</p><p>The more interesting part of this is the company&#39;s investments have been shrinking after the repatriation holiday back in 2017 allowed companies to bring back cash at record low tax rates, which were mostly used for share buybacks.</p><p>Apple had almost $200 billion of long-term investments in September 2017, which then slowly went down and hovers around $100 billion.</p><h3>The Result: All About The Interest Rates</h3><p>This resulted in the company&#39;s interest income to fall as their interest expense is expected to continue and climb:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9209feae93f89b97d8170d6ae749a21d\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>During the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rates went back to zero due to control measures by the Federal Reserve. But now, interest rates are expected to climb to records as the Federal Reserve tries to stem inflation. This means, I believe, that as the company&#39;s debt load has been increasing, they will be paying a big chunk more in expenses this year relative to last.</p><p>In the most recent reporting quarter, the company saw an 8.12% increase in interest expense relative to the same period last year as a result of the federal funds rate increasing from 0% to 0.75% in 2 stages throughout their reporting time period.</p><p>Given the fact that the federal funds rate has increased to 3% since then, I expect the company&#39;s interest expense to be higher by about 35% relative to last year, leading them to potentially pay over $3.5 billion for fiscal 2022.</p><p>On the face of it, this isn&#39;t all that bad, considering the fact that the company made about $100 billion last year in net income. But then there&#39;s the whole sales growth thing, which has me slightly more concerned than last time.</p><h3>Sales Growth To Underperform</h3><p>There are a few factors that make it hard for me to see Apple meeting the current sales growth projections.</p><p>The first is that they&#39;re way too reliant on telecom companies. These offer a free iPhone with a trade-in and some plan commitments, which is one of the major incentives that folks use in order to upgrade since the new iPhone has little improvement over the one before it, which was little improved over the one before it and so on.</p><p>While there&#39;s little to make me believe that telecom companies will stop this incentive altogether, I do think that there&#39;s a limit to the amount of cycles they&#39;ll do this as they shift to focus on customer retention and not only customer transfers or initiation. We&#39;ve seen this with other incentives - they take place for a business cycle or two and then shift to offering other services in place. If, and it&#39;s a big if, the iPhone 15 is to the iPhone 14 as the iPhone 14 is to the iPhone 13, I don&#39;t think the reception will be as good without these incentives to give Apple millions and millions of sales.</p><p>This is somewhat confirmed by the reception the phone had in China. New iPhone sales had a lukewarm reception in the company&#39;s second-largest market, where it&#39;s relying on for future sales growth, which doesn&#39;t have as many free upgrade offers. This is a result of individuals not wanting to spend all that money to upgrade for the sake of upgrading as there&#39;s little improvement outside the camera, which is already pro-level quality.</p><p>With these 2 main factors, I just don&#39;t see the company generating any meaningful revenues for the next 2-3 years. The added fact that they&#39;re spending more and more on research &amp; development each year with little to show for it (so far) is added to this underperformance projection by me.</p><h3>By The Numbers: Sales &amp; EPS</h3><p>The aforementioned factors lead me to believe that the company will likely underperform their current sales and EPS projections, which leads to them being fairly to slightly overvalued. This on its own means that the company may constitute a poor investment choice, but especially since we may be heading into a recession - the company&#39;s shares can underperform the broader market during that time period, which can be bad for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea69a11622481942c2d350d262e0d8ec\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>With these figures not yet accounting for the already-lackluster reception in China of the new iPhone, I believe that and the aforementioned overall future underperformance means that the company will be seeing a sub-3% average annual growth rate throughout the 2025 time period.</p><p>Given my earlier points about,</p><p>1 - Increased sales through telecom companies&#39; incentives means lower gross margins.</p><p>2 - Increased interest expense, lower interest income, SG&amp;A expenses and R&amp;D expenses means that the profit margin will be lower than in previous years.</p><p>3 - Lower than projected sales growth on the higher margin iPhones means margins will be lower.</p><p>I believe that the company&#39;s EPS growth rate will be lower than sales growth rate. Here are the current projections for reference:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68dcaf536e8ffc6aff7dc94c35e43c21\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Comparing these EPS figures to the growth in sales and slightly overall lower margins means that, I believe, the company is likely to report low single-digit EPS growth over the coming time period through 2025 and is likely to report, if all else remains the same, a negative EPS growth rate in 2025.</p><h3>Conclusion - Avoiding</h3><p>The company, based on the aforementioned EPS projections, is trading at a forward price to earnings multiple of between 21x to 25x over the time period. This is overvaluing the company if their true growth rate is around the 2% to 3% mark through 2025, in my opinion.</p><p>This means that the company is likely slightly overvalued at current levels, and we shouldn&#39;t expect them to make any material gains in share price over the next 2-3 years. Since I believe this will be the case, I am shifting my bullish long-term stance on the company to a neutral one and have been shedding shares over the past few days and will continue to do so throughout the coming weeks.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: A Bearish Sign For The First Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: A Bearish Sign For The First Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-28 23:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543468-apple-for-the-first-time-a-bearish-sign><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple has been a solid company with solid fundamentals for the better part of the past 20 years, but there's a recent sign that has me worried.With the lack of new or innovative technologies, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543468-apple-for-the-first-time-a-bearish-sign\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543468-apple-for-the-first-time-a-bearish-sign","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102244542","content_text":"SummaryApple has been a solid company with solid fundamentals for the better part of the past 20 years, but there's a recent sign that has me worried.With the lack of new or innovative technologies, it can become a problem for the tech behemoth in the coming years.As a result, I shift my bullish stance to a neutral to a slightly bearish one.Apple has been one of the best and most solid investments for the better part of the past 20 years. As it released the iPhone in 2007, it began raking in amounts of money most other companies can only dream of and now they bring in billions from things like their Services segments, which is larger than some other companies bring in altogether.But this past year there's been a warning sign I was looking out for a long time - as they shed their cash reserves for share buybacks and other compensation, they're losing their edge in the amount of investment and interest income they generate and now, for the very first time, they are paying more in interest expense than they're bringing in.This in and of itself isn't all that bad considering they rake in about $100 billion in net income while paying just shy of $3 billion annually in interest expense. But with the lack of new innovative products, they've been relying more on telecom companies' incentive to sell their new iPhone than organic excitement.Let's dive into the issues I see.Debt Load & Interest ExpenseBeginning in 2013, the company started taking on long-term and short-term debt while interest rates were near zero to finance their operations while conserving cash overseas and investing it to bring in interest, which more than covered the interest expense on the low-interest debt. Since then, the debt has ballooned from about $16 billion to just shy of $110 billion, which was down to about $95 billion as of their latest financial reporting.But then the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates and the company began paying more in interest expense. After the repatriation holiday in 2017, Apple brought back a big amount of their overseas cash which was being invested and spent the vast majority of it for share buybacks and other shareholder-friendly activities, which lowered their interest income.Even though, as I mentioned earlier, the company has reduced their debt from $110 billion to $95 billion, their interest expense for the same time period increased from $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion. Although these numbers pale in comparison to their income and revenue generation, it's somewhat concerning in the long run given where interest rates are headed and the lower cash reserves the company has.Cash, Investments and Interest IncomeThe company's cash and equivalents and short-term investments have been rising for the longest time as the company accumulated cash, but over the past few years, the company announced that it intended at getting to a cash-neutral position and spending it to fund share buybacks and other shareholder-friendly activities.Apple had more than $100 billion in cash and short-term investment in September 2017, which decreased to under $50 billion as of today.The more interesting part of this is the company's investments have been shrinking after the repatriation holiday back in 2017 allowed companies to bring back cash at record low tax rates, which were mostly used for share buybacks.Apple had almost $200 billion of long-term investments in September 2017, which then slowly went down and hovers around $100 billion.The Result: All About The Interest RatesThis resulted in the company's interest income to fall as their interest expense is expected to continue and climb:During the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rates went back to zero due to control measures by the Federal Reserve. But now, interest rates are expected to climb to records as the Federal Reserve tries to stem inflation. This means, I believe, that as the company's debt load has been increasing, they will be paying a big chunk more in expenses this year relative to last.In the most recent reporting quarter, the company saw an 8.12% increase in interest expense relative to the same period last year as a result of the federal funds rate increasing from 0% to 0.75% in 2 stages throughout their reporting time period.Given the fact that the federal funds rate has increased to 3% since then, I expect the company's interest expense to be higher by about 35% relative to last year, leading them to potentially pay over $3.5 billion for fiscal 2022.On the face of it, this isn't all that bad, considering the fact that the company made about $100 billion last year in net income. But then there's the whole sales growth thing, which has me slightly more concerned than last time.Sales Growth To UnderperformThere are a few factors that make it hard for me to see Apple meeting the current sales growth projections.The first is that they're way too reliant on telecom companies. These offer a free iPhone with a trade-in and some plan commitments, which is one of the major incentives that folks use in order to upgrade since the new iPhone has little improvement over the one before it, which was little improved over the one before it and so on.While there's little to make me believe that telecom companies will stop this incentive altogether, I do think that there's a limit to the amount of cycles they'll do this as they shift to focus on customer retention and not only customer transfers or initiation. We've seen this with other incentives - they take place for a business cycle or two and then shift to offering other services in place. If, and it's a big if, the iPhone 15 is to the iPhone 14 as the iPhone 14 is to the iPhone 13, I don't think the reception will be as good without these incentives to give Apple millions and millions of sales.This is somewhat confirmed by the reception the phone had in China. New iPhone sales had a lukewarm reception in the company's second-largest market, where it's relying on for future sales growth, which doesn't have as many free upgrade offers. This is a result of individuals not wanting to spend all that money to upgrade for the sake of upgrading as there's little improvement outside the camera, which is already pro-level quality.With these 2 main factors, I just don't see the company generating any meaningful revenues for the next 2-3 years. The added fact that they're spending more and more on research & development each year with little to show for it (so far) is added to this underperformance projection by me.By The Numbers: Sales & EPSThe aforementioned factors lead me to believe that the company will likely underperform their current sales and EPS projections, which leads to them being fairly to slightly overvalued. This on its own means that the company may constitute a poor investment choice, but especially since we may be heading into a recession - the company's shares can underperform the broader market during that time period, which can be bad for investors.With these figures not yet accounting for the already-lackluster reception in China of the new iPhone, I believe that and the aforementioned overall future underperformance means that the company will be seeing a sub-3% average annual growth rate throughout the 2025 time period.Given my earlier points about,1 - Increased sales through telecom companies' incentives means lower gross margins.2 - Increased interest expense, lower interest income, SG&A expenses and R&D expenses means that the profit margin will be lower than in previous years.3 - Lower than projected sales growth on the higher margin iPhones means margins will be lower.I believe that the company's EPS growth rate will be lower than sales growth rate. Here are the current projections for reference:Comparing these EPS figures to the growth in sales and slightly overall lower margins means that, I believe, the company is likely to report low single-digit EPS growth over the coming time period through 2025 and is likely to report, if all else remains the same, a negative EPS growth rate in 2025.Conclusion - AvoidingThe company, based on the aforementioned EPS projections, is trading at a forward price to earnings multiple of between 21x to 25x over the time period. This is overvaluing the company if their true growth rate is around the 2% to 3% mark through 2025, in my opinion.This means that the company is likely slightly overvalued at current levels, and we shouldn't expect them to make any material gains in share price over the next 2-3 years. Since I believe this will be the case, I am shifting my bullish long-term stance on the company to a neutral one and have been shedding shares over the past few days and will continue to do so throughout the coming weeks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989826628,"gmtCreate":1665972201064,"gmtModify":1676537685147,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989826628","repostId":"1129121473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129121473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665971534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129121473?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-17 09:52","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore REITs: 3 Red Flags to Check Before You Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129121473","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"Time flies and earnings season is almost upon us again.The usual practice is forREITsto report their","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Time flies and earnings season is almost upon us again.</p><p>The usual practice is forREITsto report their results first followed by the trio of local banks.</p><p>There is a change in the air, though.</p><p>Investors will be closely scrutinising this quarter’s REIT earnings amid an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates.</p><p>The purpose is to assess if REITs may be adversely affected by these new economic developments.</p><p>And if you are an income-seeking investor, you will be concerned about REITs’ ability to continue doling out distributions as costs increase.</p><p>REITs are well-known for being reliable dividend payers, and investors are naturally concerned if this dependability may be disrupted.</p><p>Here are three red flags you should watch out for when REITs report their results in the coming weeks.</p><p><b>Debt metrics</b></p><p>REITs are an asset class that relies heavily on borrowings to fund both their operations and acquisitions.</p><p>Hence, it’s no surprise that interest rates have a significant bearing on REITs’ financial costs and, in turn, their distributable income.</p><p>Investors need to look at each REIT’s debt metrics to assess how well it can cope with rising interest rates.</p><p>First off, you need to look at the REIT’s cost of debt.</p><p>A lower cost of debt ensures that the REIT has a bigger buffer in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p>Take <b>Mapletree Logistics Trust</b>(SGX: M44U), or MLT.</p><p>The logistics REIT sported a weighted average annualised cost of debt of 2.3% as of 30 June 2022.</p><p><b>Parkway Life REIT</b>(SGX: C2PU) boasts an even lower cost of borrowing with its all-in debt cost of just 0.61%.</p><p>A REIT’s cost of debt has a lot to do with the foreign currency it can borrow in, and also whether it has a strong sponsor to assure banks that the REIT has a lower risk profile.</p><p>Contrast this to China-based <b>Sasseur REIT</b>(SGX: CRPU) which has a weighted average cost of debt of 4.5%.</p><p>Another important metric to look at is the proportion of fixed-rate debt within the REIT’s array of loans.</p><p>The higher this component, the more buffer it has when it comes to rising finance costs.</p><p>For MLT, 80% of its total debt is hedged or drawn in fixed rates.</p><p>Suburban retail REIT <b>Frasers Centrepoint Trust</b>(SGX: J69U), or FCT, has 69% of its total loans on fixed rates, while retail and commercial REIT <b>CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust</b>(SGX: C38U), or CICT, has 81% of its borrowings tied to fixed interest rates.</p><p><b>DPU sensitivity</b></p><p>Apart from debt metrics, REITs should also disclose the sensitivity of their distribution per unit (DPU) to the rise in base interest rates.</p><p>By doing so, investors can assess the approximate impact on the REIT’s distributions each time rates go up.</p><p>For CICT, every one percentage point rise in interest rates will lower DPU by S$0.0028.</p><p>The decline represents 2.7% of CICT’s trailing 12-month DPU of S$0.1044.</p><p>MLT estimates that a 0.25 percentage point increase in base interest rates will result in a S$0.0001 decline in DPU per quarter.</p><p>The decline is 0.4% of its fiscal 2023’s first quarter DPU of S$0.02268.</p><p><b>Frasers Logistics &amp; Commercial Trust</b>(SGX: BUOU) will witness a S$0.0005 fall in DPU for each 0.5 percentage point increase in interest rates for its variable rate loans.</p><p>This drop works out to be around 0.6% of the REIT’s annualised fiscal 2022’s first-half DPU of S$0.0385.</p><p>From the above examples, it’s easy to quantify the effects of rising interest rates on these REITs’ DPUs.</p><p>Although the recent surge in interest rates will result in across-the-board falls in DPU, REITs have various methods to mitigate this decline.</p><p><b>The impact of inflation</b></p><p>The third aspect to watch for is the effect of inflation on the operating expenses of the REIT.</p><p>Common property operating expenses include utilities, property management fees, marketing expenses, maintenance costs, and staff salaries.</p><p>There has already been news of a sharp jump in utility costs as electricity and gas expenses rose 23.9% year on year in August.</p><p>Labour costs are also expected to rise as employees demand higher salaries to cope with food and transport inflation.</p><p>These expenses will add up to reduce the distributable income for the REIT and is an area that investors should monitor in the coming quarters.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1602567310727","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore REITs: 3 Red Flags to Check Before You Buy</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore REITs: 3 Red Flags to Check Before You Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-17 09:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/singapore-reits-3-red-flags-to-check-before-you-buy/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Time flies and earnings season is almost upon us again.The usual practice is forREITsto report their results first followed by the trio of local banks.There is a change in the air, though.Investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/singapore-reits-3-red-flags-to-check-before-you-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/singapore-reits-3-red-flags-to-check-before-you-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129121473","content_text":"Time flies and earnings season is almost upon us again.The usual practice is forREITsto report their results first followed by the trio of local banks.There is a change in the air, though.Investors will be closely scrutinising this quarter’s REIT earnings amid an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates.The purpose is to assess if REITs may be adversely affected by these new economic developments.And if you are an income-seeking investor, you will be concerned about REITs’ ability to continue doling out distributions as costs increase.REITs are well-known for being reliable dividend payers, and investors are naturally concerned if this dependability may be disrupted.Here are three red flags you should watch out for when REITs report their results in the coming weeks.Debt metricsREITs are an asset class that relies heavily on borrowings to fund both their operations and acquisitions.Hence, it’s no surprise that interest rates have a significant bearing on REITs’ financial costs and, in turn, their distributable income.Investors need to look at each REIT’s debt metrics to assess how well it can cope with rising interest rates.First off, you need to look at the REIT’s cost of debt.A lower cost of debt ensures that the REIT has a bigger buffer in a rising interest rate environment.Take Mapletree Logistics Trust(SGX: M44U), or MLT.The logistics REIT sported a weighted average annualised cost of debt of 2.3% as of 30 June 2022.Parkway Life REIT(SGX: C2PU) boasts an even lower cost of borrowing with its all-in debt cost of just 0.61%.A REIT’s cost of debt has a lot to do with the foreign currency it can borrow in, and also whether it has a strong sponsor to assure banks that the REIT has a lower risk profile.Contrast this to China-based Sasseur REIT(SGX: CRPU) which has a weighted average cost of debt of 4.5%.Another important metric to look at is the proportion of fixed-rate debt within the REIT’s array of loans.The higher this component, the more buffer it has when it comes to rising finance costs.For MLT, 80% of its total debt is hedged or drawn in fixed rates.Suburban retail REIT Frasers Centrepoint Trust(SGX: J69U), or FCT, has 69% of its total loans on fixed rates, while retail and commercial REIT CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust(SGX: C38U), or CICT, has 81% of its borrowings tied to fixed interest rates.DPU sensitivityApart from debt metrics, REITs should also disclose the sensitivity of their distribution per unit (DPU) to the rise in base interest rates.By doing so, investors can assess the approximate impact on the REIT’s distributions each time rates go up.For CICT, every one percentage point rise in interest rates will lower DPU by S$0.0028.The decline represents 2.7% of CICT’s trailing 12-month DPU of S$0.1044.MLT estimates that a 0.25 percentage point increase in base interest rates will result in a S$0.0001 decline in DPU per quarter.The decline is 0.4% of its fiscal 2023’s first quarter DPU of S$0.02268.Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust(SGX: BUOU) will witness a S$0.0005 fall in DPU for each 0.5 percentage point increase in interest rates for its variable rate loans.This drop works out to be around 0.6% of the REIT’s annualised fiscal 2022’s first-half DPU of S$0.0385.From the above examples, it’s easy to quantify the effects of rising interest rates on these REITs’ DPUs.Although the recent surge in interest rates will result in across-the-board falls in DPU, REITs have various methods to mitigate this decline.The impact of inflationThe third aspect to watch for is the effect of inflation on the operating expenses of the REIT.Common property operating expenses include utilities, property management fees, marketing expenses, maintenance costs, and staff salaries.There has already been news of a sharp jump in utility costs as electricity and gas expenses rose 23.9% year on year in August.Labour costs are also expected to rise as employees demand higher salaries to cope with food and transport inflation.These expenses will add up to reduce the distributable income for the REIT and is an area that investors should monitor in the coming quarters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916173000,"gmtCreate":1664545826201,"gmtModify":1676537475100,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UL\">$Unilever PLC(UL)$</a>hang in there...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UL\">$Unilever PLC(UL)$</a>hang in there...","text":"$Unilever PLC(UL)$hang in there...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9bccf033deee4900d14876d19d4a624","width":"1170","height":"3982"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916173000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960911963,"gmtCreate":1668043019952,"gmtModify":1676538002705,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is interesting","listText":"This is interesting","text":"This is interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960911963","repostId":"1113225170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113225170","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668039943,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113225170?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 08:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Binance, FTX Deal Rocked the Crypto World and Then Collapsed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113225170","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The crypto market rout deepens after a proposed rescue deal falls apart.Sam Bankman-Fried, left, and","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The crypto market rout deepens after a proposed rescue deal falls apart.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6731c8ede9b2eaa8076b2ac9001ae530\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"672\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sam Bankman-Fried, left, and Zhao “CZ” Changpeng</span></p><p>It’s been a tumultuous few days in the largely unregulated cryptocurrency world, with mudslinging on Twitter, a shock exchange takeover bid — which then collapsed — and plunging token values.</p><p>On Tuesday, the world’s biggest exchange, Binance Holdings Ltd., was set to acquire troubled rival FTX.com. On Wednesday, Binance walked away from the deal citing problems with FTX’s finances as well as potential regulatory investigations. Its decision to walk away deepened the ongoing crypto rout, with Bitcoin tumbling to the lowest level in two years.</p><p>While crypto might seem like a niche corner of finance, the saga between two of its top players has upended the crypto ecosystem and is likely to have far-reaching repercussions.</p><p><b>What are Binance and FTX?</b></p><p>They’re two of the biggest crypto exchanges, which are marketplaces where investors buy, sell and store tokens. Binance is the biggest crypto exchange by volume by a long way — and FTX is in the top five, according to crypto data provider CoinMarketCap (which is owned by Binance).</p><p><b>Who runs them?</b></p><p>They’ve also been led by two of the most visible and charismatic people in the crypto world: Binance by Changpeng Zhao (or CZ, as he is known), and FTX by Sam Bankman-Fried (or SBF).</p><p>Formerly a trader at Jane Street, until just a few weeks ago the curly-haired 30-year-old was everywhere in the crypto industry — backing flailing projects including BlockFi, Voyager Digital and Celsius. He counted the likes of Softbank Vision Fund, Singapore wealth fund Temasek and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan as investors.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/535bbd30b95ab09c2c91bada9c2bb89c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sam Bankman-FriedPhotographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Zhao is a China-born Canadian citizen who emigrated to Vancouver aged 12 and graduated with a degree in computer science from McGill University in Montreal. He started Binance in 2017 in Shanghai — but the Chinese government banned crypto exchanges the same year. He’s now based in Dubai.</p><p><b>Why did they fall out?</b></p><p>Back in 2019, Binance invested in FTX, then a derivatives exchange. The next year, Binance launched its own crypto derivatives, quickly becoming the leader in the field.</p><p>Tensions rose as the two companies increasingly took divergent tacks with regulators. Bankman-Fried was testifying in the US Congress, while Binance was said to be facing regulatory probes around the world.</p><p>The two companies have also been competing for assets, with both bidding for assets of Voyager Digital. FTX.US, the American affiliate of FTX, won the auction.</p><p>Zhao and Bankman-Fried have been trading barbs on Twitter for months, feuding over issues ranging from lobbying US politicians to allegations of frontrunning trades.</p><p><b>So what just happened in the crypto world?</b></p><p>Over the weekend Zhao tweeted that Binance would be liquidating its holdings of a token known as FTT, which is issued by FTX.</p><p>The tweet followed a story from crypto news outlet CoinDesk saying that Alameda Research, a trading house owned by FTX’s founder Bankman-Fried, had a lot of its assets in FTT token.</p><p>That fueled broader concerns about FTX’s health and investors began to withdraw money. The FTT token plunged. A day before reaching a deal, Bankman-Fried said on Twitter that assets on FTX were “fine” and that “a competitor is trying to go after us with false rumors.”</p><p>On Tuesday, CZ announced a potential takeover of FTX, with due diligence to be conducted “in the coming days.”</p><p>Then late Wednesday afternoon New York time, Binance said it was pulling out of the deal saying its rival’s issues were “beyond our control or ability to help.” Binance executives had discovered a gap between FTX’s liabilities and assets that may amount to more than $6 billion,  a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.</p><p>What’s more, US regulators are investigating whether FTX properly handled customer funds, as well as its relationship with other parts of Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire, including his trading house Alameda Research, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.</p><p><b>What does this mean for the markets?</b></p><p>It’s injected a lot of uncertainty for investors who are worried about the potential for spreading contagion given the pivotal role FTX and its co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried played in the industry.</p><p>FTT, the utility token of the FTX exchange, collapsed by more than 40% Wednesday following a tumble of more than 70% Tuesday. But just about every digital coin is struggling.</p><p>Bitcoin fell as much as 15% to $15,987 on Wednesday, the least since November 2020, which leaves a lot of holders under water.</p><p><b>What does this mean for FTX users?</b></p><p>That’s unclear. Clients worried about the future of the exchange have already pulled out $430 million worth of Bitcoin in the space of just four days.</p><p><b>How does this affect CZ and SBF?</b></p><p>It’s a huge comedown for SBF, who had previously been seen as one of the most accomplished people in the industry.</p><p>That’s playing out in fortunes, as well. Bankman-Fried’s 53% stake in FTX was worth about $6.2 billion before Tuesday’s takeover, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, based on that fundraising round and the subsequent performance of publicly traded crypto companies. His crypto trading house, Alameda Research, contributed $7.4 billion to his personal fortune.</p><p>The Bloomberg wealth index assumes existing FTX investors, including Bankman-Fried, will be completely wiped out by Binance’s bailout, and that the root of the exchange’s problems stemmed from Alameda. As a result, both FTX and Alameda are given a $1 value. That leaves SBF’s net worth at about $1 billion, down from $15.6 billion heading into Tuesday. The 94% loss is the biggest one-day collapse ever among billionaires tracked by Bloomberg.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e920d4e192c178a362237327be8e62c5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Changpeng ZhaoPhotographer: Zed Jameson/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Even after pulling out of the deal, Bankman-Fried’s fall from grace leaves CZ as the top person in the crypto world. He’s had a rough period too, with his fortune down 84% year-to-date, according to the Billionaires Index — but he’s still estimated to be worth $14.9 billion.</p><p>What does this mean in terms of regulation?</p><p>This episode and how quickly it unfolded provide a stark example for regulators who have been concerned about the lack of guardrails in the freewheeling crypto space. Jurisdictions that have been considering looser rules may be less likely to do so — especially on the back a few months ago of implosions in the Terra/Luna ecosystem and hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.</p><p><b>What’s Next?</b></p><p>Bankman-Fried told FTX.com investors on Wednesday that the company needs a cash injection, or else it would need to file for bankruptcy, Bloomberg News reported.</p><p>Whether FTX survives this crisis or not, the entire industry is on edge about the risks of contagion.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Binance, FTX Deal Rocked the Crypto World and Then Collapsed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Binance, FTX Deal Rocked the Crypto World and Then Collapsed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-10 08:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/bankman-fried-and-cz-how-binance-ftx-shocked-the-crypto-world><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The crypto market rout deepens after a proposed rescue deal falls apart.Sam Bankman-Fried, left, and Zhao “CZ” ChangpengIt’s been a tumultuous few days in the largely unregulated cryptocurrency world,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/bankman-fried-and-cz-how-binance-ftx-shocked-the-crypto-world\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/bankman-fried-and-cz-how-binance-ftx-shocked-the-crypto-world","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113225170","content_text":"The crypto market rout deepens after a proposed rescue deal falls apart.Sam Bankman-Fried, left, and Zhao “CZ” ChangpengIt’s been a tumultuous few days in the largely unregulated cryptocurrency world, with mudslinging on Twitter, a shock exchange takeover bid — which then collapsed — and plunging token values.On Tuesday, the world’s biggest exchange, Binance Holdings Ltd., was set to acquire troubled rival FTX.com. On Wednesday, Binance walked away from the deal citing problems with FTX’s finances as well as potential regulatory investigations. Its decision to walk away deepened the ongoing crypto rout, with Bitcoin tumbling to the lowest level in two years.While crypto might seem like a niche corner of finance, the saga between two of its top players has upended the crypto ecosystem and is likely to have far-reaching repercussions.What are Binance and FTX?They’re two of the biggest crypto exchanges, which are marketplaces where investors buy, sell and store tokens. Binance is the biggest crypto exchange by volume by a long way — and FTX is in the top five, according to crypto data provider CoinMarketCap (which is owned by Binance).Who runs them?They’ve also been led by two of the most visible and charismatic people in the crypto world: Binance by Changpeng Zhao (or CZ, as he is known), and FTX by Sam Bankman-Fried (or SBF).Formerly a trader at Jane Street, until just a few weeks ago the curly-haired 30-year-old was everywhere in the crypto industry — backing flailing projects including BlockFi, Voyager Digital and Celsius. He counted the likes of Softbank Vision Fund, Singapore wealth fund Temasek and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan as investors.Sam Bankman-FriedPhotographer: Jeenah Moon/BloombergZhao is a China-born Canadian citizen who emigrated to Vancouver aged 12 and graduated with a degree in computer science from McGill University in Montreal. He started Binance in 2017 in Shanghai — but the Chinese government banned crypto exchanges the same year. He’s now based in Dubai.Why did they fall out?Back in 2019, Binance invested in FTX, then a derivatives exchange. The next year, Binance launched its own crypto derivatives, quickly becoming the leader in the field.Tensions rose as the two companies increasingly took divergent tacks with regulators. Bankman-Fried was testifying in the US Congress, while Binance was said to be facing regulatory probes around the world.The two companies have also been competing for assets, with both bidding for assets of Voyager Digital. FTX.US, the American affiliate of FTX, won the auction.Zhao and Bankman-Fried have been trading barbs on Twitter for months, feuding over issues ranging from lobbying US politicians to allegations of frontrunning trades.So what just happened in the crypto world?Over the weekend Zhao tweeted that Binance would be liquidating its holdings of a token known as FTT, which is issued by FTX.The tweet followed a story from crypto news outlet CoinDesk saying that Alameda Research, a trading house owned by FTX’s founder Bankman-Fried, had a lot of its assets in FTT token.That fueled broader concerns about FTX’s health and investors began to withdraw money. The FTT token plunged. A day before reaching a deal, Bankman-Fried said on Twitter that assets on FTX were “fine” and that “a competitor is trying to go after us with false rumors.”On Tuesday, CZ announced a potential takeover of FTX, with due diligence to be conducted “in the coming days.”Then late Wednesday afternoon New York time, Binance said it was pulling out of the deal saying its rival’s issues were “beyond our control or ability to help.” Binance executives had discovered a gap between FTX’s liabilities and assets that may amount to more than $6 billion,  a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.What’s more, US regulators are investigating whether FTX properly handled customer funds, as well as its relationship with other parts of Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire, including his trading house Alameda Research, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.What does this mean for the markets?It’s injected a lot of uncertainty for investors who are worried about the potential for spreading contagion given the pivotal role FTX and its co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried played in the industry.FTT, the utility token of the FTX exchange, collapsed by more than 40% Wednesday following a tumble of more than 70% Tuesday. But just about every digital coin is struggling.Bitcoin fell as much as 15% to $15,987 on Wednesday, the least since November 2020, which leaves a lot of holders under water.What does this mean for FTX users?That’s unclear. Clients worried about the future of the exchange have already pulled out $430 million worth of Bitcoin in the space of just four days.How does this affect CZ and SBF?It’s a huge comedown for SBF, who had previously been seen as one of the most accomplished people in the industry.That’s playing out in fortunes, as well. Bankman-Fried’s 53% stake in FTX was worth about $6.2 billion before Tuesday’s takeover, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, based on that fundraising round and the subsequent performance of publicly traded crypto companies. His crypto trading house, Alameda Research, contributed $7.4 billion to his personal fortune.The Bloomberg wealth index assumes existing FTX investors, including Bankman-Fried, will be completely wiped out by Binance’s bailout, and that the root of the exchange’s problems stemmed from Alameda. As a result, both FTX and Alameda are given a $1 value. That leaves SBF’s net worth at about $1 billion, down from $15.6 billion heading into Tuesday. The 94% loss is the biggest one-day collapse ever among billionaires tracked by Bloomberg.Changpeng ZhaoPhotographer: Zed Jameson/BloombergEven after pulling out of the deal, Bankman-Fried’s fall from grace leaves CZ as the top person in the crypto world. He’s had a rough period too, with his fortune down 84% year-to-date, according to the Billionaires Index — but he’s still estimated to be worth $14.9 billion.What does this mean in terms of regulation?This episode and how quickly it unfolded provide a stark example for regulators who have been concerned about the lack of guardrails in the freewheeling crypto space. Jurisdictions that have been considering looser rules may be less likely to do so — especially on the back a few months ago of implosions in the Terra/Luna ecosystem and hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.What’s Next?Bankman-Fried told FTX.com investors on Wednesday that the company needs a cash injection, or else it would need to file for bankruptcy, Bloomberg News reported.Whether FTX survives this crisis or not, the entire industry is on edge about the risks of contagion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989913983,"gmtCreate":1665884931943,"gmtModify":1676537674965,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read.. thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Good read.. thank you&nbsp;","text":"Good read.. thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989913983","repostId":"2275832623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2275832623","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665881990,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2275832623?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-16 08:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"There Will Be Massive Winners\": Jeffrey Katzenberg Says Media and Entertainment Industry Will Dazzle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275832623","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As MarketWatch turns 25, we asked the former CEO of DreamWorks Animation and producer of hits like S","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As MarketWatch turns 25, we asked the former CEO of DreamWorks Animation and producer of hits like Shrek about the future of Hollywood.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e19a6468f947c4e648f39ce4322f43\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"386\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Hollywood legend Jeffrey Katzenberg: ‘We are in a truly transformative, tectonic, shifting moment for the consumer.’</span></p><p>In the 25 years MarketWatch has been reporting on business and finance, Jeffrey Katzenberg has helped reshape Hollywood. He cofounded DreamWorks with Steven Spielberg and David Geffen, produced the smash animation hit Shrek, and ran DreamWorks Animation, which made blockbusters like Madagascar.</p><p>Not everything Katzenberg tried panned out. His big bet on short-form streaming platform Quibi famously tanked. But Katzenberg generally has a good read on where the media and entertainment business is going, as well as technology in general.</p><p>As MarketWatch turns 25, we wanted to ask Katzenberg for his five-year outlook on showbusiness and other areas he is focused on, like cybersecurity. He is currently backing cybersecurity startup Aura. Here are his lightly edited comments.</p><p><b>What opportunities do you see today that you think might be more clear in five years?</b></p><p><b>Katzenberg:</b> When you look out over the next five years and think about what’s in the future, I’m going to go back five years to sort of make that prediction. If you look at the last five years, the impact of digital technology on every facet of our lives, including MarketWatch, has been spectacular. It has impacted every facet of our business lives, our personal lives, our social lives. What will happen in the next five years will be by a factor greater than the past five years. So the rate of innovation and impact, I think, will be more dazzling going forward than it is going backwards. And going backwards, you would say, it has been pretty breathtaking.</p><p><b>What do you fear that you might be reading in MarketWatch in the next five years?</b></p><p>The thing I fear, it’s in our business, it’s in our social world, it’s in our political world, is just the weaponization of communication and the deterioration of fact. If we can’t have a foundation of what is and is not fact, I don’t know how we stay together as a civilization. So when you talk about that, that’s why something like MarketWatch is essential and invaluable. And let’s just agree first on what is fact and is not fact, and then we can go from there.</p><p><b>What opportunities do you see today in movies and entertainment specifically?</b></p><p>I don’t think you can look at the movie and TV-streaming landscape today and actually be predictive of the next five years. The reason for that is that I think this is still sort of the center of the storm. We are in a truly transformative, tectonic, shifting moment for the consumer. I actually don’t believe the consumer has yet found what is that balance in terms of, where the value is for them, either in their home, on the go, on their device, or in an out-of-home experience. And those are all part of that ecosystem. And so we’re on a rollercoaster. So you could sit here and talk about the demise of moviegoing in movie theaters. And then I would say, ‘great, we’ll go see Top Gun: Maverick.’ And that will instantly, I think, show the fallacy of that idea. Or watch House of Dragons and see the television continues to be an undeniable experience. It’s the pleasure of being able to have a water cooler moment around that on every Monday morning, which is incredibly exciting.</p><p><b>What opportunities do you see today in cybersecurity that might be more apparent in the next five years?</b></p><p>Cybersecurity is to me one of the lanes in which there is great clarity about the next five years. What that clarity is, is that we are all becoming more and more vulnerable, and therefore, our needs become more and more essential. There is greater theft from our digital lives today than there is theft and burglary. It already surpassed it 18 months ago and continues to now accelerate and outgrow it significantly. Why? Because if I come to your home and I break into your home it is very high risk. And what is the reward? Some consumer electronics, TV, computer, a little bit of jewelry, virtually no cash. If I break into your phone and I get access to whether it’s your credit, your bank account, your Social Security, the damage that can be done and is being done to people every day is extraordinary and growing. And so as we become more and more connected and more of our lives exist on these digital devices. Cybersecurity doesn’t become a nice-to-have. It will become a must-have. So five years from now, I think that business will be explosive. It’s global. It’s not unique to the U.S. or anywhere. Everybody around the globe requires it.</p><p><b>What do you fear you will be reading about cybersecurity?</b></p><p>I don’t know since I think we’re ambitiously and aggressively tackling it. I’d like to be optimistic rather than fearful that we (Aura) are a solution and we are a very viable one. Maybe the answer is, if we could be to consumer safety and security for the family what Netflix or Disney is for our media and entertainment, which is not an essential, by the way, it’s a great-to-have, it’s a love-to-have, but it’s not a must-have. Whereas my argument is your cybersecurity is actually going to be a need-to-have.</p><p><b>What do you fear you’ll be reading about the entertainment industry?</b></p><p>I don’t fear for the entertainment industry. I’m quite optimistic about it. There’s never been more content being made. There’s never been more content being consumed. What is not clear is the balance, or really just what is the best consumer mix and experience, of what we watch at home, what we watch on our devices on the go, and what we will go out to a movie theater to experience. And so all of those things, and whether it’s streaming or cable or, you know, broadcast, all of those things are in flux. To the point where I don’t  know how to be predictive of what it looks like five years from now, other than there will be great opportunities and there will be massive winners. And it doesn’t mean they’re massive losers because it’s not a zero sum game. There can be many, many winners. There are just going to be winners at different scales and different sizes and with different ambitions. Apple’s ambition in terms of what they’re doing in the entertainment space is singular and unique. It’s brand building and they’re doing a brilliant job, but they’re not looking at that investment. Nor is anybody investing in Apple because of Apple TV+. That’s not there. It’s the ecosystem that it is. All boats within that system are rising. With that brand building that’s going on. That’s not what anybody else is doing. So how do you compare that to, Warner Discovery or Netflix? You can’t, it’s apples and submarines. They have nothing in common.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"There Will Be Massive Winners\": Jeffrey Katzenberg Says Media and Entertainment Industry Will Dazzle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"There Will Be Massive Winners\": Jeffrey Katzenberg Says Media and Entertainment Industry Will Dazzle\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-16 08:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-will-be-massive-winners-jeffrey-katzenberg-says-media-and-entertainment-industry-will-dazzle-11665664522?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As MarketWatch turns 25, we asked the former CEO of DreamWorks Animation and producer of hits like Shrek about the future of Hollywood.Hollywood legend Jeffrey Katzenberg: ‘We are in a truly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-will-be-massive-winners-jeffrey-katzenberg-says-media-and-entertainment-industry-will-dazzle-11665664522?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼","NFLX":"奈飞","AAPL":"苹果","WBD":"Warner Bros. Discovery"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-will-be-massive-winners-jeffrey-katzenberg-says-media-and-entertainment-industry-will-dazzle-11665664522?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2275832623","content_text":"As MarketWatch turns 25, we asked the former CEO of DreamWorks Animation and producer of hits like Shrek about the future of Hollywood.Hollywood legend Jeffrey Katzenberg: ‘We are in a truly transformative, tectonic, shifting moment for the consumer.’In the 25 years MarketWatch has been reporting on business and finance, Jeffrey Katzenberg has helped reshape Hollywood. He cofounded DreamWorks with Steven Spielberg and David Geffen, produced the smash animation hit Shrek, and ran DreamWorks Animation, which made blockbusters like Madagascar.Not everything Katzenberg tried panned out. His big bet on short-form streaming platform Quibi famously tanked. But Katzenberg generally has a good read on where the media and entertainment business is going, as well as technology in general.As MarketWatch turns 25, we wanted to ask Katzenberg for his five-year outlook on showbusiness and other areas he is focused on, like cybersecurity. He is currently backing cybersecurity startup Aura. Here are his lightly edited comments.What opportunities do you see today that you think might be more clear in five years?Katzenberg: When you look out over the next five years and think about what’s in the future, I’m going to go back five years to sort of make that prediction. If you look at the last five years, the impact of digital technology on every facet of our lives, including MarketWatch, has been spectacular. It has impacted every facet of our business lives, our personal lives, our social lives. What will happen in the next five years will be by a factor greater than the past five years. So the rate of innovation and impact, I think, will be more dazzling going forward than it is going backwards. And going backwards, you would say, it has been pretty breathtaking.What do you fear that you might be reading in MarketWatch in the next five years?The thing I fear, it’s in our business, it’s in our social world, it’s in our political world, is just the weaponization of communication and the deterioration of fact. If we can’t have a foundation of what is and is not fact, I don’t know how we stay together as a civilization. So when you talk about that, that’s why something like MarketWatch is essential and invaluable. And let’s just agree first on what is fact and is not fact, and then we can go from there.What opportunities do you see today in movies and entertainment specifically?I don’t think you can look at the movie and TV-streaming landscape today and actually be predictive of the next five years. The reason for that is that I think this is still sort of the center of the storm. We are in a truly transformative, tectonic, shifting moment for the consumer. I actually don’t believe the consumer has yet found what is that balance in terms of, where the value is for them, either in their home, on the go, on their device, or in an out-of-home experience. And those are all part of that ecosystem. And so we’re on a rollercoaster. So you could sit here and talk about the demise of moviegoing in movie theaters. And then I would say, ‘great, we’ll go see Top Gun: Maverick.’ And that will instantly, I think, show the fallacy of that idea. Or watch House of Dragons and see the television continues to be an undeniable experience. It’s the pleasure of being able to have a water cooler moment around that on every Monday morning, which is incredibly exciting.What opportunities do you see today in cybersecurity that might be more apparent in the next five years?Cybersecurity is to me one of the lanes in which there is great clarity about the next five years. What that clarity is, is that we are all becoming more and more vulnerable, and therefore, our needs become more and more essential. There is greater theft from our digital lives today than there is theft and burglary. It already surpassed it 18 months ago and continues to now accelerate and outgrow it significantly. Why? Because if I come to your home and I break into your home it is very high risk. And what is the reward? Some consumer electronics, TV, computer, a little bit of jewelry, virtually no cash. If I break into your phone and I get access to whether it’s your credit, your bank account, your Social Security, the damage that can be done and is being done to people every day is extraordinary and growing. And so as we become more and more connected and more of our lives exist on these digital devices. Cybersecurity doesn’t become a nice-to-have. It will become a must-have. So five years from now, I think that business will be explosive. It’s global. It’s not unique to the U.S. or anywhere. Everybody around the globe requires it.What do you fear you will be reading about cybersecurity?I don’t know since I think we’re ambitiously and aggressively tackling it. I’d like to be optimistic rather than fearful that we (Aura) are a solution and we are a very viable one. Maybe the answer is, if we could be to consumer safety and security for the family what Netflix or Disney is for our media and entertainment, which is not an essential, by the way, it’s a great-to-have, it’s a love-to-have, but it’s not a must-have. Whereas my argument is your cybersecurity is actually going to be a need-to-have.What do you fear you’ll be reading about the entertainment industry?I don’t fear for the entertainment industry. I’m quite optimistic about it. There’s never been more content being made. There’s never been more content being consumed. What is not clear is the balance, or really just what is the best consumer mix and experience, of what we watch at home, what we watch on our devices on the go, and what we will go out to a movie theater to experience. And so all of those things, and whether it’s streaming or cable or, you know, broadcast, all of those things are in flux. To the point where I don’t  know how to be predictive of what it looks like five years from now, other than there will be great opportunities and there will be massive winners. And it doesn’t mean they’re massive losers because it’s not a zero sum game. There can be many, many winners. There are just going to be winners at different scales and different sizes and with different ambitions. Apple’s ambition in terms of what they’re doing in the entertainment space is singular and unique. It’s brand building and they’re doing a brilliant job, but they’re not looking at that investment. Nor is anybody investing in Apple because of Apple TV+. That’s not there. It’s the ecosystem that it is. All boats within that system are rising. With that brand building that’s going on. That’s not what anybody else is doing. So how do you compare that to, Warner Discovery or Netflix? You can’t, it’s apples and submarines. They have nothing in common.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912706841,"gmtCreate":1664894261383,"gmtModify":1676537524900,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UL\">$Unilever PLC(UL)$</a>it actually improved.. 🙂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UL\">$Unilever PLC(UL)$</a>it actually improved.. 🙂","text":"$Unilever PLC(UL)$it actually improved.. 🙂","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8a469ea8d7a81d1993c1967bedb3f514","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912706841","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"content":"thank u.. 😊 Being in share investment can feel like I watching a roller coaster sometimes lol.. Good luck to you on your investments too 🍀","text":"thank u.. 😊 Being in share investment can feel like I watching a roller coaster sometimes lol.. Good luck to you on your investments too 🍀","html":"thank u.. 😊 Being in share investment can feel like I watching a roller coaster sometimes lol.. Good luck to you on your investments too 🍀"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960913414,"gmtCreate":1668043006039,"gmtModify":1676538002697,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is interesting. Thank you for sharing","listText":"This is interesting. Thank you for sharing","text":"This is interesting. Thank you for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960913414","repostId":"1113225170","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915299209,"gmtCreate":1665035703702,"gmtModify":1676537547820,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤣","listText":"🤣","text":"🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915299209","repostId":"1148814250","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148814250","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665019060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148814250?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-06 09:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk, Twitter Held Unsuccessful Talks About a Price Cut for Acquisition","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148814250","media":"Wall Street Journal","summary":"Representatives of Elon Musk and Twitter Inc. held unsuccessful talks about a possible price cut to ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Representatives of Elon Musk and Twitter Inc. held unsuccessful talks about a possible price cut to his $44 billion deal to buy the social-media platform before he reversed course Monday and said hewould return to the original agreement’s terms, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>The informal discussions happened in a series of conference calls in recent weeks between lawyers and ended after the two sides failed to agree on terms of a potential deal, the people said.</p><p>Mr. Musk’s proposal this week to move forward with the April 25 takeover agreement still left unresolved issues. As of late Wednesday, representatives of Mr. Musk and Twitter were trying to hash out the details of his proposal this week to stick to the original agreement, including what would be required from both sides for litigation over the stalled deal to be dropped and whether the deal’s closing would be contingent on Mr. Musk receiving the necessary debt financing, some of the people said.</p><p>There was hope a deal could be reached Tuesday or Wednesday, averting a trial scheduled to start Oct. 17, the people said. In a sign of potential progress, the two sides have agreed to delay Mr. Musk’s deposition, which was scheduled to begin Thursday in Texas, some of the people said.</p><p>The price-cut talks had broken off before Mr. Musk caught Twitter off-guard by sending the company’s lawyers a two-sentence letter detailing his intentions.</p><p>Mr. Musk’s apparent change of heart Monday surprised many observers. TheTeslaInc. chief executive had spent the past several monthstrying to back out of the dealafter alleging Twitter misled him about key elements of its business, including the amount of spam on its platform.</p><p>In July, Mr. Musk formally moved to walk away from the deal,prompting Twitter to sue himto follow through with the transaction on the agreed-upon terms. Mr. Musk countersued, alleging that Twitter had misrepresented the condition of its business and key metrics about the users on its platform, which Twitter has denied.</p><p>For now, the Delaware Chancery Court judge presiding over the legal battle is pressing ahead withtrial preparations.</p><hr/><p>NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP</p><p>Technology</p><p>A weekly digest of tech reviews, headlines, columns and your questions answered by WSJ&#39;s Personal Tech gurus.</p><p>PreviewSubscribe</p><hr/><p>Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick ordered Mr. Musk’s team Wednesday to search for any morepossible electronic messagesrequested by Twitter as the two sides prepare for a five-day, nonjury trial in Wilmington, Del. She said neither party had moved to stop the litigation.</p><p>“The parties have not filed a stipulation to stay this action, nor has any party moved for a stay,” the judge wrote Wednesday. “I, therefore, continue to press on toward our trial set to begin on October 17.”</p><p>The Musk team has been aggressive in pushing for broad information from Twitter, including a range of employee communications and data related to spam and fake accounts. Those requests at times prompted frustration from Chancellor McCormick. She granted some requests but denied others, and once called Mr. Musk’s data requests absurdly broad.</p><p>Legal experts have maintained from the beginning that Twitter appeared to have the stronger case, in part because Mr. Musk waived due diligence before agreeing to the deal and the merger agreement gave Twitter the right to sue him to follow through with it under a concept called “specific performance.”</p><p>Still, even a small risk of Mr. Musk’s prevailing in a trial could be too much for a company the size of Twitter to bear. For this reason, the majority of broken deal cases end in negotiated settlements, often with a small price cut. Such was the case with litigation between LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE and Tiffany &amp; Co. in 2020. Those parties agreed to a nearly 3% price cut to avert a trial.</p><p>While Twitter’s stock price has held up because of Mr. Musk’s potential acquisition, its performance has declined. The company reported a drop in revenue in the second quarter that it blamed on weakness in the advertising industry and uncertainty related to Mr. Musk’s acquisition.</p><p>Mr. Musk has given few specific details about his plans for Twitter, but he has said he wants to transform Twitter as a private company and unlock what he called its extraordinary potential as a platform for free speech.</p></body></html>","source":"wsj_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk, Twitter Held Unsuccessful Talks About a Price Cut for Acquisition</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk, Twitter Held Unsuccessful Talks About a Price Cut for Acquisition\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-06 09:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-and-twitter-discussed-price-cut-to-44-billion-takeover-in-recent-weeks-11665017788?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1><strong>Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Representatives of Elon Musk and Twitter Inc. held unsuccessful talks about a possible price cut to his $44 billion deal to buy the social-media platform before he reversed course Monday and said ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-and-twitter-discussed-price-cut-to-44-billion-takeover-in-recent-weeks-11665017788?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-and-twitter-discussed-price-cut-to-44-billion-takeover-in-recent-weeks-11665017788?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148814250","content_text":"Representatives of Elon Musk and Twitter Inc. held unsuccessful talks about a possible price cut to his $44 billion deal to buy the social-media platform before he reversed course Monday and said hewould return to the original agreement’s terms, according to people familiar with the matter.The informal discussions happened in a series of conference calls in recent weeks between lawyers and ended after the two sides failed to agree on terms of a potential deal, the people said.Mr. Musk’s proposal this week to move forward with the April 25 takeover agreement still left unresolved issues. As of late Wednesday, representatives of Mr. Musk and Twitter were trying to hash out the details of his proposal this week to stick to the original agreement, including what would be required from both sides for litigation over the stalled deal to be dropped and whether the deal’s closing would be contingent on Mr. Musk receiving the necessary debt financing, some of the people said.There was hope a deal could be reached Tuesday or Wednesday, averting a trial scheduled to start Oct. 17, the people said. In a sign of potential progress, the two sides have agreed to delay Mr. Musk’s deposition, which was scheduled to begin Thursday in Texas, some of the people said.The price-cut talks had broken off before Mr. Musk caught Twitter off-guard by sending the company’s lawyers a two-sentence letter detailing his intentions.Mr. Musk’s apparent change of heart Monday surprised many observers. TheTeslaInc. chief executive had spent the past several monthstrying to back out of the dealafter alleging Twitter misled him about key elements of its business, including the amount of spam on its platform.In July, Mr. Musk formally moved to walk away from the deal,prompting Twitter to sue himto follow through with the transaction on the agreed-upon terms. Mr. Musk countersued, alleging that Twitter had misrepresented the condition of its business and key metrics about the users on its platform, which Twitter has denied.For now, the Delaware Chancery Court judge presiding over the legal battle is pressing ahead withtrial preparations.NEWSLETTER SIGN-UPTechnologyA weekly digest of tech reviews, headlines, columns and your questions answered by WSJ's Personal Tech gurus.PreviewSubscribeChancellor Kathaleen McCormick ordered Mr. Musk’s team Wednesday to search for any morepossible electronic messagesrequested by Twitter as the two sides prepare for a five-day, nonjury trial in Wilmington, Del. She said neither party had moved to stop the litigation.“The parties have not filed a stipulation to stay this action, nor has any party moved for a stay,” the judge wrote Wednesday. “I, therefore, continue to press on toward our trial set to begin on October 17.”The Musk team has been aggressive in pushing for broad information from Twitter, including a range of employee communications and data related to spam and fake accounts. Those requests at times prompted frustration from Chancellor McCormick. She granted some requests but denied others, and once called Mr. Musk’s data requests absurdly broad.Legal experts have maintained from the beginning that Twitter appeared to have the stronger case, in part because Mr. Musk waived due diligence before agreeing to the deal and the merger agreement gave Twitter the right to sue him to follow through with it under a concept called “specific performance.”Still, even a small risk of Mr. Musk’s prevailing in a trial could be too much for a company the size of Twitter to bear. For this reason, the majority of broken deal cases end in negotiated settlements, often with a small price cut. Such was the case with litigation between LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE and Tiffany & Co. in 2020. Those parties agreed to a nearly 3% price cut to avert a trial.While Twitter’s stock price has held up because of Mr. Musk’s potential acquisition, its performance has declined. The company reported a drop in revenue in the second quarter that it blamed on weakness in the advertising industry and uncertainty related to Mr. Musk’s acquisition.Mr. Musk has given few specific details about his plans for Twitter, but he has said he wants to transform Twitter as a private company and unlock what he called its extraordinary potential as a platform for free speech.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918602727,"gmtCreate":1664372022370,"gmtModify":1676537442284,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can someone explain this and it's correlation to&nbsp;the UK's unfunded tax cuts please?&nbsp;","listText":"Can someone explain this and it's correlation to&nbsp;the UK's unfunded tax cuts please?&nbsp;","text":"Can someone explain this and it's correlation to the UK's unfunded tax cuts please?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918602727","repostId":"1188659326","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188659326","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664371823,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188659326?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-28 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 Bounces Slightly From 2022 Low After Bank of England’s Bond-Buying Plan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188659326","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The S&P 500 bounced slightly off the new 2022 low on Wednesday following the Bank of England’s bond-","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The S&amp;P 500 bounced slightly off the new 2022 low on Wednesday following the Bank of England’s bond-buying plan to stabilize the falling British pound.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 37 points, or about 0.13%. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.12%.</p><p>Shares of Apple were down nearly 4% in premarket trading after a Bloomberg report, citing people familiar with the matter, said the tech company is ditching plans to increase new iPhone production after demand fell short of expectations.</p><p>Stock futures pared earlier losses after the Bank of England said it would temporarily purchase long-dated UK government bonds in an effort to stabilize the plunging British pound. Sterling briefly popped on the news before trading 0.6% lower against the dollar at $1.0667.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield gave back its initial gains after the announcement, last trading at about 3.93%. Earlier in the trading session, the benchmark rate broke above 4% for the first time since 2008.</p><p>Wall Street is coming off a mixed session in which the S&amp;P 500 reached a new bear market low of 3,623.29 and posted its sixth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a gain.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 Bounces Slightly From 2022 Low After Bank of England’s Bond-Buying Plan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 Bounces Slightly From 2022 Low After Bank of England’s Bond-Buying Plan\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-28 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The S&amp;P 500 bounced slightly off the new 2022 low on Wednesday following the Bank of England’s bond-buying plan to stabilize the falling British pound.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 37 points, or about 0.13%. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.12%.</p><p>Shares of Apple were down nearly 4% in premarket trading after a Bloomberg report, citing people familiar with the matter, said the tech company is ditching plans to increase new iPhone production after demand fell short of expectations.</p><p>Stock futures pared earlier losses after the Bank of England said it would temporarily purchase long-dated UK government bonds in an effort to stabilize the plunging British pound. Sterling briefly popped on the news before trading 0.6% lower against the dollar at $1.0667.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield gave back its initial gains after the announcement, last trading at about 3.93%. Earlier in the trading session, the benchmark rate broke above 4% for the first time since 2008.</p><p>Wall Street is coming off a mixed session in which the S&amp;P 500 reached a new bear market low of 3,623.29 and posted its sixth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a gain.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188659326","content_text":"The S&P 500 bounced slightly off the new 2022 low on Wednesday following the Bank of England’s bond-buying plan to stabilize the falling British pound.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 37 points, or about 0.13%. The S&P 500 rose 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.12%.Shares of Apple were down nearly 4% in premarket trading after a Bloomberg report, citing people familiar with the matter, said the tech company is ditching plans to increase new iPhone production after demand fell short of expectations.Stock futures pared earlier losses after the Bank of England said it would temporarily purchase long-dated UK government bonds in an effort to stabilize the plunging British pound. Sterling briefly popped on the news before trading 0.6% lower against the dollar at $1.0667.The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield gave back its initial gains after the announcement, last trading at about 3.93%. Earlier in the trading session, the benchmark rate broke above 4% for the first time since 2008.Wall Street is coming off a mixed session in which the S&P 500 reached a new bear market low of 3,623.29 and posted its sixth straight day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a gain.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":40,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937614515,"gmtCreate":1663418960437,"gmtModify":1676537268059,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UL\">$Unilever PLC(UL)$</a>Wait wait wait...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UL\">$Unilever PLC(UL)$</a>Wait wait wait...","text":"$Unilever PLC(UL)$Wait wait wait...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aecbd6ee9cea9b82a7b168f17f41d76b","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937614515","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4121213968754362","authorId":"4121213968754362","name":"kM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d5d846b359ea0785fd3b84ac68196325","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4121213968754362","authorIdStr":"4121213968754362"},"content":"Will grow","text":"Will grow","html":"Will grow"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921249347,"gmtCreate":1671072772389,"gmtModify":1676538485513,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for an interesting article","listText":"Thanks for an interesting article","text":"Thanks for an interesting article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921249347","repostId":"2291571778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2291571778","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671084084,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2291571778?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-15 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291571778","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more int","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Tesla is a stock I&#39;d be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.</li><li>I&#39;ve covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $250 on the assumption that the company keeps growing fairly quickly.</li><li>Nevertheless, I always rated it &#39;hold&#39; because I thought that the uncertainty surrounding the company undermined any thesis based on future growth assumptions.</li><li>In this article, I explain why I&#39;d buy Tesla at $75, a 53.4% drop, even though its financials and growth trajectory would seem to suggest it&#39;s worth more than that.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecebf7dbd139bf94cb13d4dce8d8da49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Dimitrios Kambouris</span></p><p><b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the toughest stocks out there to analyze. On the one hand, it has strong historical growth and adominant position in its market. On the other hand, it is veryexpensive (going by valuation multiples) and its founder is constantly getting in trouble for his provocative statements. In some cases, Musk has faced legal consequences for things he has said; for example, he once had to pay a $20 million fine for claiming that he had secured funding to take Tesla private.</p><p>This time around, Twitter is what’s getting people worried about their Tesla stock holdings. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was controversial in itself, now Elon musk is raising eyebrows for his posts on the platform. It would be hard to directly quote Musk’s recent posts without running afoul of Seeking Alpha’s political comment guidelines, so I will simply leave links to them off-platform here and here. Suffice it to say, the comments made some people very,<i>very</i> upset.</p><p>Shortly after Elon posted his two notorious Tweets, Tesla stock fell 6.3% in a single trading day. There was little material news about TSLA on the day that crash happened; the most recent big story was a bullish one about a surge in deliveries from Tesla Shanghai. Most likely, Musk’s tweets caused the selloff. Given the lack of other negative news, it’s the default assumption.</p><p>For me personally, nothing Musk is doing makes Tesla an “avoid at any price” stock. Tesla has great brand recognition, strong growth, and just recently got its tax credits back. The stock has a lot of things going for it. However, Musk’s risk taking is a serious enough concern for me to demand some kind of discount.</p><p>In past articles, I got fair value estimates for Tesla well above the current stock price. However, I never rated the stock any higher than a hold; in one article I rated it a sell. The reason for that is the immense uncertainty that Tesla is subject to. Whether it’s Musk’s Tweets or the federal investigation of the Twitter deal, there are many risk factors, some of which could impede the growth that makes the stock appear to have such a great future. For this reason, I’d want to see a price of $75 or lower before I’d buy the stock, even though I get value estimates above $200 when I value it by conventional means.</p><h2>My Past Coverage of Tesla</h2><p>In past articles, I’ve usually found Tesla to be worth something like $200-$300, going by a combination of multiples and discounted cash flows. In some cases, those prices were above the market price, but I never gave the stock a ‘buy’ rating, because I felt there were too many risks to the growth story. Some examples of valuations I arrived at include:</p><ul><li><p>$338 in “Tesla: the $4 Trillion Price Target is a Red Flag.”</p></li><li><p>$879 ($293 in post-split terms) in “Tesla: the EV Tax Credit is a Huge Catalyst.”</p></li><li><p>A sell rating (no specific price target) in “Long BYD, Short Tesla: a Great Tactical Pair Trade.”</p></li></ul><p>Now, you might wonder why I keep rating Tesla ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ when my models always give it upside. The reason has to do with how discounted cash flow models are constructed. You have to estimate future cash flows in order to make the math work, there’s no way around it. Tesla’s historical growth is extremely strong, and even if you cut the future growth estimates to half or a third of the actual historical growth, you still end up with pretty high price targets. In some of my previous articles, I cut Tesla’s future growth estimate down to the projected growth in the EV industry, which is a lot slower than Tesla’s actual growth rate. It still resulted in upside.</p><p>Still, I can’t rate the stock a buy, because I do think the risks here are serious enough to potentially end Tesla’s growth streak.</p><p>The first is demographics. Musk’s recent Twitter posts haven’t been received well by the demographics that tend to buy electric cars. Recently, Musk appeared on stage at a Dave Chapelle performance in San Francisco–the city with the second highest number of EV chargers in the U.S.--and was ‘booed’ by some audience members. This evidence might seem anecdotal, but it is known that Musk has low approval ratings in EV-friendly states like Oregon. Combining hard data with news reports, one gets the sense that Elon Musk isn’t being received well in States that are pushing green energy.</p><p>EV ownership in the U.S. skews toward affluent, educated, progressive-leaning individuals. Tesla has more conservative customers than other EV companies do, but it still has more democrat than republican owners. Many commentators believe that Musk’s recent Twitter posts have been designed to court conservative support. It is known that Musk is popular among conservatives, and he seems to be trying to shore up that support, but the problem is that Tesla’s customers come from other groups.</p><p>It’s not clear that Musk has angered enough people to get large numbers of them abandoning Tesla. A few people have said that they would buy Chevy Bolts in retaliation for Musk’s Twitter posts, but sales forecasts suggest there aren’t that many of them. By all accounts, Tesla’s sales are growing, not declining. Still, there is a possibility of Elon Musk alienating his core customer base; if he does so, we’d expect Tesla’s sales to take a hit.</p><p>There’s no shortage of companies selling electric cars. We’ve got European companies like <b>Volkswagen</b> (OTCPK:VWAGY), American companies like <b>General Motors</b> (GM) and Chinese companies like <b>NIO</b> (NIO) building EVs now. If the people who are upset about Musk’s job at Twitter wanted to ditch Tesla, they could do so. So a loss of sales is in principle a potential risk factor.</p><p>There’s also Musk’s selling of Twitter stock. As a long-term value investor, this does not really count as a risk to me, but it is a risk to those taking short term positions. Musk had to sell Tesla stock to put up collateral for the Twitter loans. He has sold at least $16.4 billion worth of TSLA, or 3.15% of the float. Insider selling of that magnitude can push a stock’s price downward, as stock prices are a function of supply and demand. If you don’t own Tesla stock now, and want to take a long-term position in the future, this is only good news, but for somebody who already owns Tesla stock, with no plans to average down, it’s very bad. If you already own Tesla and are hoping to get back to purchase prices well above $200, you might be waiting a while. Musk is rattling investor confidence and he may have more sales planned. If you don’t own Tesla stock, or own a little and plan on averaging down, then read on, because in the next section I explain why Tesla stock would be genuinely interesting at $75.</p><h2>Why Tesla Would Be Interesting at $75</h2><p>In previous sections, I explained why Tesla, with moderate growth assumptions, appeared to be worth $200 or more. In a DCF model it only takes about 20% growth in free cash flow for TSLA to come out with a fair value estimate well above $200. However, two things have to be kept in mind:</p><ol><li><p>Interest rates are rising.</p></li><li><p>There are genuine risks to Tesla’s operating performance.</p></li></ol><p>Interest rates going up takes a bite out of the value of cash flows from any company, and Elon Musk’s political commentary puts Tesla’s U.S. revenue at risk. So, a new Tesla model is needed to account for the risks. In past models, I discounted TSLA stock at just 8%. That’s a discount rate that includes a risk premium, but not a very large one. Today, Tesla is in the political crosshairs to an extent not seen when I wrote my last Tesla article, so more risk needs to be accounted for.</p><p>There are two ways to do this:</p><ol><li><p>Simply run one of my previous models at a far higher discount rate.</p></li><li><p>Lower the growth assumption.</p></li></ol><p>The first method is pretty straightforward. If you take my previous model that got a $338 FV estimate, and up the discount rate to 15%, you get a $111 price target. I think buying Tesla at that level would be basically sensible, but it helps to go even stricter still. Remember: when you buy TSLA shares, you’re paying for a lot of future growth. The nature of a ‘financial risk’ is that it can cause growth to disappear, and profits to turn into losses, so we need to account for those scenarios.</p><p>I do not think we need to model for a scenario where Tesla’s growth becomes negative. Tesla sells a lot of cars in China, a country that is not plugged into U.S. social media discourse, and where Elon Musk’s private behavior probably isn’t a concern for very many people. The U.S. market position does seem to be at risk, so we can model for a scenario where growth declines to 0%, based on current trends continuing in China while U.S. sales decline. Note that I don’t think this scenario will actually occur, it just helps to model worst case scenarios.</p><p>Under zero growth assumptions, we can simply value TSLA in terms of terminal value. This is where you discount free cash flow at a chosen discount rate. The range we get for Tesla, using 3.5% (no risk premium) and 15% (extremely large risk premium) is shown below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f7a6ae9f247b5aac92b75634596020\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"138\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, to sum up, our total range of values under, when we account for immense risk, goes from:</p><ul><li><p>$19.33 (high discount rate, no growth).</p></li><li><p>$111 (high discount rate, high growth).</p></li></ul><p>The mean of the high and low values is $65. If you want to be extremely conservative, aim for $65 before buying Tesla. Personally, I’d probably buy at $75, because the worst-case scenarios I’m modelling for here are rather extreme. Most likely Tesla will do better than 0% growth. But in an environment of rising rates, it pays to play it safe. For the most risk averse investors, Tesla does not appear to be a buy.</p><p>This article is written by Growth at a Good Price for reference only. Please note the risks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-15 14:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.I've covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291571778","content_text":"SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.I've covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $250 on the assumption that the company keeps growing fairly quickly.Nevertheless, I always rated it 'hold' because I thought that the uncertainty surrounding the company undermined any thesis based on future growth assumptions.In this article, I explain why I'd buy Tesla at $75, a 53.4% drop, even though its financials and growth trajectory would seem to suggest it's worth more than that.Dimitrios KambourisTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the toughest stocks out there to analyze. On the one hand, it has strong historical growth and adominant position in its market. On the other hand, it is veryexpensive (going by valuation multiples) and its founder is constantly getting in trouble for his provocative statements. In some cases, Musk has faced legal consequences for things he has said; for example, he once had to pay a $20 million fine for claiming that he had secured funding to take Tesla private.This time around, Twitter is what’s getting people worried about their Tesla stock holdings. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was controversial in itself, now Elon musk is raising eyebrows for his posts on the platform. It would be hard to directly quote Musk’s recent posts without running afoul of Seeking Alpha’s political comment guidelines, so I will simply leave links to them off-platform here and here. Suffice it to say, the comments made some people very,very upset.Shortly after Elon posted his two notorious Tweets, Tesla stock fell 6.3% in a single trading day. There was little material news about TSLA on the day that crash happened; the most recent big story was a bullish one about a surge in deliveries from Tesla Shanghai. Most likely, Musk’s tweets caused the selloff. Given the lack of other negative news, it’s the default assumption.For me personally, nothing Musk is doing makes Tesla an “avoid at any price” stock. Tesla has great brand recognition, strong growth, and just recently got its tax credits back. The stock has a lot of things going for it. However, Musk’s risk taking is a serious enough concern for me to demand some kind of discount.In past articles, I got fair value estimates for Tesla well above the current stock price. However, I never rated the stock any higher than a hold; in one article I rated it a sell. The reason for that is the immense uncertainty that Tesla is subject to. Whether it’s Musk’s Tweets or the federal investigation of the Twitter deal, there are many risk factors, some of which could impede the growth that makes the stock appear to have such a great future. For this reason, I’d want to see a price of $75 or lower before I’d buy the stock, even though I get value estimates above $200 when I value it by conventional means.My Past Coverage of TeslaIn past articles, I’ve usually found Tesla to be worth something like $200-$300, going by a combination of multiples and discounted cash flows. In some cases, those prices were above the market price, but I never gave the stock a ‘buy’ rating, because I felt there were too many risks to the growth story. Some examples of valuations I arrived at include:$338 in “Tesla: the $4 Trillion Price Target is a Red Flag.”$879 ($293 in post-split terms) in “Tesla: the EV Tax Credit is a Huge Catalyst.”A sell rating (no specific price target) in “Long BYD, Short Tesla: a Great Tactical Pair Trade.”Now, you might wonder why I keep rating Tesla ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ when my models always give it upside. The reason has to do with how discounted cash flow models are constructed. You have to estimate future cash flows in order to make the math work, there’s no way around it. Tesla’s historical growth is extremely strong, and even if you cut the future growth estimates to half or a third of the actual historical growth, you still end up with pretty high price targets. In some of my previous articles, I cut Tesla’s future growth estimate down to the projected growth in the EV industry, which is a lot slower than Tesla’s actual growth rate. It still resulted in upside.Still, I can’t rate the stock a buy, because I do think the risks here are serious enough to potentially end Tesla’s growth streak.The first is demographics. Musk’s recent Twitter posts haven’t been received well by the demographics that tend to buy electric cars. Recently, Musk appeared on stage at a Dave Chapelle performance in San Francisco–the city with the second highest number of EV chargers in the U.S.--and was ‘booed’ by some audience members. This evidence might seem anecdotal, but it is known that Musk has low approval ratings in EV-friendly states like Oregon. Combining hard data with news reports, one gets the sense that Elon Musk isn’t being received well in States that are pushing green energy.EV ownership in the U.S. skews toward affluent, educated, progressive-leaning individuals. Tesla has more conservative customers than other EV companies do, but it still has more democrat than republican owners. Many commentators believe that Musk’s recent Twitter posts have been designed to court conservative support. It is known that Musk is popular among conservatives, and he seems to be trying to shore up that support, but the problem is that Tesla’s customers come from other groups.It’s not clear that Musk has angered enough people to get large numbers of them abandoning Tesla. A few people have said that they would buy Chevy Bolts in retaliation for Musk’s Twitter posts, but sales forecasts suggest there aren’t that many of them. By all accounts, Tesla’s sales are growing, not declining. Still, there is a possibility of Elon Musk alienating his core customer base; if he does so, we’d expect Tesla’s sales to take a hit.There’s no shortage of companies selling electric cars. We’ve got European companies like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), American companies like General Motors (GM) and Chinese companies like NIO (NIO) building EVs now. If the people who are upset about Musk’s job at Twitter wanted to ditch Tesla, they could do so. So a loss of sales is in principle a potential risk factor.There’s also Musk’s selling of Twitter stock. As a long-term value investor, this does not really count as a risk to me, but it is a risk to those taking short term positions. Musk had to sell Tesla stock to put up collateral for the Twitter loans. He has sold at least $16.4 billion worth of TSLA, or 3.15% of the float. Insider selling of that magnitude can push a stock’s price downward, as stock prices are a function of supply and demand. If you don’t own Tesla stock now, and want to take a long-term position in the future, this is only good news, but for somebody who already owns Tesla stock, with no plans to average down, it’s very bad. If you already own Tesla and are hoping to get back to purchase prices well above $200, you might be waiting a while. Musk is rattling investor confidence and he may have more sales planned. If you don’t own Tesla stock, or own a little and plan on averaging down, then read on, because in the next section I explain why Tesla stock would be genuinely interesting at $75.Why Tesla Would Be Interesting at $75In previous sections, I explained why Tesla, with moderate growth assumptions, appeared to be worth $200 or more. In a DCF model it only takes about 20% growth in free cash flow for TSLA to come out with a fair value estimate well above $200. However, two things have to be kept in mind:Interest rates are rising.There are genuine risks to Tesla’s operating performance.Interest rates going up takes a bite out of the value of cash flows from any company, and Elon Musk’s political commentary puts Tesla’s U.S. revenue at risk. So, a new Tesla model is needed to account for the risks. In past models, I discounted TSLA stock at just 8%. That’s a discount rate that includes a risk premium, but not a very large one. Today, Tesla is in the political crosshairs to an extent not seen when I wrote my last Tesla article, so more risk needs to be accounted for.There are two ways to do this:Simply run one of my previous models at a far higher discount rate.Lower the growth assumption.The first method is pretty straightforward. If you take my previous model that got a $338 FV estimate, and up the discount rate to 15%, you get a $111 price target. I think buying Tesla at that level would be basically sensible, but it helps to go even stricter still. Remember: when you buy TSLA shares, you’re paying for a lot of future growth. The nature of a ‘financial risk’ is that it can cause growth to disappear, and profits to turn into losses, so we need to account for those scenarios.I do not think we need to model for a scenario where Tesla’s growth becomes negative. Tesla sells a lot of cars in China, a country that is not plugged into U.S. social media discourse, and where Elon Musk’s private behavior probably isn’t a concern for very many people. The U.S. market position does seem to be at risk, so we can model for a scenario where growth declines to 0%, based on current trends continuing in China while U.S. sales decline. Note that I don’t think this scenario will actually occur, it just helps to model worst case scenarios.Under zero growth assumptions, we can simply value TSLA in terms of terminal value. This is where you discount free cash flow at a chosen discount rate. The range we get for Tesla, using 3.5% (no risk premium) and 15% (extremely large risk premium) is shown below.So, to sum up, our total range of values under, when we account for immense risk, goes from:$19.33 (high discount rate, no growth).$111 (high discount rate, high growth).The mean of the high and low values is $65. If you want to be extremely conservative, aim for $65 before buying Tesla. Personally, I’d probably buy at $75, because the worst-case scenarios I’m modelling for here are rather extreme. Most likely Tesla will do better than 0% growth. But in an environment of rising rates, it pays to play it safe. For the most risk averse investors, Tesla does not appear to be a buy.This article is written by Growth at a Good Price for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960911179,"gmtCreate":1668043041092,"gmtModify":1676538002710,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is interesting&nbsp;","listText":"This is interesting&nbsp;","text":"This is interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960911179","repostId":"1113225170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113225170","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668039943,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113225170?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 08:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Binance, FTX Deal Rocked the Crypto World and Then Collapsed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113225170","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The crypto market rout deepens after a proposed rescue deal falls apart.Sam Bankman-Fried, left, and","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The crypto market rout deepens after a proposed rescue deal falls apart.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6731c8ede9b2eaa8076b2ac9001ae530\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"672\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sam Bankman-Fried, left, and Zhao “CZ” Changpeng</span></p><p>It’s been a tumultuous few days in the largely unregulated cryptocurrency world, with mudslinging on Twitter, a shock exchange takeover bid — which then collapsed — and plunging token values.</p><p>On Tuesday, the world’s biggest exchange, Binance Holdings Ltd., was set to acquire troubled rival FTX.com. On Wednesday, Binance walked away from the deal citing problems with FTX’s finances as well as potential regulatory investigations. Its decision to walk away deepened the ongoing crypto rout, with Bitcoin tumbling to the lowest level in two years.</p><p>While crypto might seem like a niche corner of finance, the saga between two of its top players has upended the crypto ecosystem and is likely to have far-reaching repercussions.</p><p><b>What are Binance and FTX?</b></p><p>They’re two of the biggest crypto exchanges, which are marketplaces where investors buy, sell and store tokens. Binance is the biggest crypto exchange by volume by a long way — and FTX is in the top five, according to crypto data provider CoinMarketCap (which is owned by Binance).</p><p><b>Who runs them?</b></p><p>They’ve also been led by two of the most visible and charismatic people in the crypto world: Binance by Changpeng Zhao (or CZ, as he is known), and FTX by Sam Bankman-Fried (or SBF).</p><p>Formerly a trader at Jane Street, until just a few weeks ago the curly-haired 30-year-old was everywhere in the crypto industry — backing flailing projects including BlockFi, Voyager Digital and Celsius. He counted the likes of Softbank Vision Fund, Singapore wealth fund Temasek and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan as investors.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/535bbd30b95ab09c2c91bada9c2bb89c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sam Bankman-FriedPhotographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Zhao is a China-born Canadian citizen who emigrated to Vancouver aged 12 and graduated with a degree in computer science from McGill University in Montreal. He started Binance in 2017 in Shanghai — but the Chinese government banned crypto exchanges the same year. He’s now based in Dubai.</p><p><b>Why did they fall out?</b></p><p>Back in 2019, Binance invested in FTX, then a derivatives exchange. The next year, Binance launched its own crypto derivatives, quickly becoming the leader in the field.</p><p>Tensions rose as the two companies increasingly took divergent tacks with regulators. Bankman-Fried was testifying in the US Congress, while Binance was said to be facing regulatory probes around the world.</p><p>The two companies have also been competing for assets, with both bidding for assets of Voyager Digital. FTX.US, the American affiliate of FTX, won the auction.</p><p>Zhao and Bankman-Fried have been trading barbs on Twitter for months, feuding over issues ranging from lobbying US politicians to allegations of frontrunning trades.</p><p><b>So what just happened in the crypto world?</b></p><p>Over the weekend Zhao tweeted that Binance would be liquidating its holdings of a token known as FTT, which is issued by FTX.</p><p>The tweet followed a story from crypto news outlet CoinDesk saying that Alameda Research, a trading house owned by FTX’s founder Bankman-Fried, had a lot of its assets in FTT token.</p><p>That fueled broader concerns about FTX’s health and investors began to withdraw money. The FTT token plunged. A day before reaching a deal, Bankman-Fried said on Twitter that assets on FTX were “fine” and that “a competitor is trying to go after us with false rumors.”</p><p>On Tuesday, CZ announced a potential takeover of FTX, with due diligence to be conducted “in the coming days.”</p><p>Then late Wednesday afternoon New York time, Binance said it was pulling out of the deal saying its rival’s issues were “beyond our control or ability to help.” Binance executives had discovered a gap between FTX’s liabilities and assets that may amount to more than $6 billion,  a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.</p><p>What’s more, US regulators are investigating whether FTX properly handled customer funds, as well as its relationship with other parts of Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire, including his trading house Alameda Research, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.</p><p><b>What does this mean for the markets?</b></p><p>It’s injected a lot of uncertainty for investors who are worried about the potential for spreading contagion given the pivotal role FTX and its co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried played in the industry.</p><p>FTT, the utility token of the FTX exchange, collapsed by more than 40% Wednesday following a tumble of more than 70% Tuesday. But just about every digital coin is struggling.</p><p>Bitcoin fell as much as 15% to $15,987 on Wednesday, the least since November 2020, which leaves a lot of holders under water.</p><p><b>What does this mean for FTX users?</b></p><p>That’s unclear. Clients worried about the future of the exchange have already pulled out $430 million worth of Bitcoin in the space of just four days.</p><p><b>How does this affect CZ and SBF?</b></p><p>It’s a huge comedown for SBF, who had previously been seen as one of the most accomplished people in the industry.</p><p>That’s playing out in fortunes, as well. Bankman-Fried’s 53% stake in FTX was worth about $6.2 billion before Tuesday’s takeover, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, based on that fundraising round and the subsequent performance of publicly traded crypto companies. His crypto trading house, Alameda Research, contributed $7.4 billion to his personal fortune.</p><p>The Bloomberg wealth index assumes existing FTX investors, including Bankman-Fried, will be completely wiped out by Binance’s bailout, and that the root of the exchange’s problems stemmed from Alameda. As a result, both FTX and Alameda are given a $1 value. That leaves SBF’s net worth at about $1 billion, down from $15.6 billion heading into Tuesday. The 94% loss is the biggest one-day collapse ever among billionaires tracked by Bloomberg.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e920d4e192c178a362237327be8e62c5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Changpeng ZhaoPhotographer: Zed Jameson/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Even after pulling out of the deal, Bankman-Fried’s fall from grace leaves CZ as the top person in the crypto world. He’s had a rough period too, with his fortune down 84% year-to-date, according to the Billionaires Index — but he’s still estimated to be worth $14.9 billion.</p><p>What does this mean in terms of regulation?</p><p>This episode and how quickly it unfolded provide a stark example for regulators who have been concerned about the lack of guardrails in the freewheeling crypto space. Jurisdictions that have been considering looser rules may be less likely to do so — especially on the back a few months ago of implosions in the Terra/Luna ecosystem and hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.</p><p><b>What’s Next?</b></p><p>Bankman-Fried told FTX.com investors on Wednesday that the company needs a cash injection, or else it would need to file for bankruptcy, Bloomberg News reported.</p><p>Whether FTX survives this crisis or not, the entire industry is on edge about the risks of contagion.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Binance, FTX Deal Rocked the Crypto World and Then Collapsed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Binance, FTX Deal Rocked the Crypto World and Then Collapsed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-10 08:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/bankman-fried-and-cz-how-binance-ftx-shocked-the-crypto-world><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The crypto market rout deepens after a proposed rescue deal falls apart.Sam Bankman-Fried, left, and Zhao “CZ” ChangpengIt’s been a tumultuous few days in the largely unregulated cryptocurrency world,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/bankman-fried-and-cz-how-binance-ftx-shocked-the-crypto-world\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/bankman-fried-and-cz-how-binance-ftx-shocked-the-crypto-world","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113225170","content_text":"The crypto market rout deepens after a proposed rescue deal falls apart.Sam Bankman-Fried, left, and Zhao “CZ” ChangpengIt’s been a tumultuous few days in the largely unregulated cryptocurrency world, with mudslinging on Twitter, a shock exchange takeover bid — which then collapsed — and plunging token values.On Tuesday, the world’s biggest exchange, Binance Holdings Ltd., was set to acquire troubled rival FTX.com. On Wednesday, Binance walked away from the deal citing problems with FTX’s finances as well as potential regulatory investigations. Its decision to walk away deepened the ongoing crypto rout, with Bitcoin tumbling to the lowest level in two years.While crypto might seem like a niche corner of finance, the saga between two of its top players has upended the crypto ecosystem and is likely to have far-reaching repercussions.What are Binance and FTX?They’re two of the biggest crypto exchanges, which are marketplaces where investors buy, sell and store tokens. Binance is the biggest crypto exchange by volume by a long way — and FTX is in the top five, according to crypto data provider CoinMarketCap (which is owned by Binance).Who runs them?They’ve also been led by two of the most visible and charismatic people in the crypto world: Binance by Changpeng Zhao (or CZ, as he is known), and FTX by Sam Bankman-Fried (or SBF).Formerly a trader at Jane Street, until just a few weeks ago the curly-haired 30-year-old was everywhere in the crypto industry — backing flailing projects including BlockFi, Voyager Digital and Celsius. He counted the likes of Softbank Vision Fund, Singapore wealth fund Temasek and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan as investors.Sam Bankman-FriedPhotographer: Jeenah Moon/BloombergZhao is a China-born Canadian citizen who emigrated to Vancouver aged 12 and graduated with a degree in computer science from McGill University in Montreal. He started Binance in 2017 in Shanghai — but the Chinese government banned crypto exchanges the same year. He’s now based in Dubai.Why did they fall out?Back in 2019, Binance invested in FTX, then a derivatives exchange. The next year, Binance launched its own crypto derivatives, quickly becoming the leader in the field.Tensions rose as the two companies increasingly took divergent tacks with regulators. Bankman-Fried was testifying in the US Congress, while Binance was said to be facing regulatory probes around the world.The two companies have also been competing for assets, with both bidding for assets of Voyager Digital. FTX.US, the American affiliate of FTX, won the auction.Zhao and Bankman-Fried have been trading barbs on Twitter for months, feuding over issues ranging from lobbying US politicians to allegations of frontrunning trades.So what just happened in the crypto world?Over the weekend Zhao tweeted that Binance would be liquidating its holdings of a token known as FTT, which is issued by FTX.The tweet followed a story from crypto news outlet CoinDesk saying that Alameda Research, a trading house owned by FTX’s founder Bankman-Fried, had a lot of its assets in FTT token.That fueled broader concerns about FTX’s health and investors began to withdraw money. The FTT token plunged. A day before reaching a deal, Bankman-Fried said on Twitter that assets on FTX were “fine” and that “a competitor is trying to go after us with false rumors.”On Tuesday, CZ announced a potential takeover of FTX, with due diligence to be conducted “in the coming days.”Then late Wednesday afternoon New York time, Binance said it was pulling out of the deal saying its rival’s issues were “beyond our control or ability to help.” Binance executives had discovered a gap between FTX’s liabilities and assets that may amount to more than $6 billion,  a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.What’s more, US regulators are investigating whether FTX properly handled customer funds, as well as its relationship with other parts of Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire, including his trading house Alameda Research, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.What does this mean for the markets?It’s injected a lot of uncertainty for investors who are worried about the potential for spreading contagion given the pivotal role FTX and its co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried played in the industry.FTT, the utility token of the FTX exchange, collapsed by more than 40% Wednesday following a tumble of more than 70% Tuesday. But just about every digital coin is struggling.Bitcoin fell as much as 15% to $15,987 on Wednesday, the least since November 2020, which leaves a lot of holders under water.What does this mean for FTX users?That’s unclear. Clients worried about the future of the exchange have already pulled out $430 million worth of Bitcoin in the space of just four days.How does this affect CZ and SBF?It’s a huge comedown for SBF, who had previously been seen as one of the most accomplished people in the industry.That’s playing out in fortunes, as well. Bankman-Fried’s 53% stake in FTX was worth about $6.2 billion before Tuesday’s takeover, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, based on that fundraising round and the subsequent performance of publicly traded crypto companies. His crypto trading house, Alameda Research, contributed $7.4 billion to his personal fortune.The Bloomberg wealth index assumes existing FTX investors, including Bankman-Fried, will be completely wiped out by Binance’s bailout, and that the root of the exchange’s problems stemmed from Alameda. As a result, both FTX and Alameda are given a $1 value. That leaves SBF’s net worth at about $1 billion, down from $15.6 billion heading into Tuesday. The 94% loss is the biggest one-day collapse ever among billionaires tracked by Bloomberg.Changpeng ZhaoPhotographer: Zed Jameson/BloombergEven after pulling out of the deal, Bankman-Fried’s fall from grace leaves CZ as the top person in the crypto world. He’s had a rough period too, with his fortune down 84% year-to-date, according to the Billionaires Index — but he’s still estimated to be worth $14.9 billion.What does this mean in terms of regulation?This episode and how quickly it unfolded provide a stark example for regulators who have been concerned about the lack of guardrails in the freewheeling crypto space. Jurisdictions that have been considering looser rules may be less likely to do so — especially on the back a few months ago of implosions in the Terra/Luna ecosystem and hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.What’s Next?Bankman-Fried told FTX.com investors on Wednesday that the company needs a cash injection, or else it would need to file for bankruptcy, Bloomberg News reported.Whether FTX survives this crisis or not, the entire industry is on edge about the risks of contagion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989826155,"gmtCreate":1665972189577,"gmtModify":1676537685139,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you for exaining this in simple terms","listText":"Thank you for exaining this in simple terms","text":"Thank you for exaining this in simple terms","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989826155","repostId":"1129121473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129121473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665971534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129121473?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-17 09:52","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore REITs: 3 Red Flags to Check Before You Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129121473","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"Time flies and earnings season is almost upon us again.The usual practice is forREITsto report their","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Time flies and earnings season is almost upon us again.</p><p>The usual practice is forREITsto report their results first followed by the trio of local banks.</p><p>There is a change in the air, though.</p><p>Investors will be closely scrutinising this quarter’s REIT earnings amid an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates.</p><p>The purpose is to assess if REITs may be adversely affected by these new economic developments.</p><p>And if you are an income-seeking investor, you will be concerned about REITs’ ability to continue doling out distributions as costs increase.</p><p>REITs are well-known for being reliable dividend payers, and investors are naturally concerned if this dependability may be disrupted.</p><p>Here are three red flags you should watch out for when REITs report their results in the coming weeks.</p><p><b>Debt metrics</b></p><p>REITs are an asset class that relies heavily on borrowings to fund both their operations and acquisitions.</p><p>Hence, it’s no surprise that interest rates have a significant bearing on REITs’ financial costs and, in turn, their distributable income.</p><p>Investors need to look at each REIT’s debt metrics to assess how well it can cope with rising interest rates.</p><p>First off, you need to look at the REIT’s cost of debt.</p><p>A lower cost of debt ensures that the REIT has a bigger buffer in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p>Take <b>Mapletree Logistics Trust</b>(SGX: M44U), or MLT.</p><p>The logistics REIT sported a weighted average annualised cost of debt of 2.3% as of 30 June 2022.</p><p><b>Parkway Life REIT</b>(SGX: C2PU) boasts an even lower cost of borrowing with its all-in debt cost of just 0.61%.</p><p>A REIT’s cost of debt has a lot to do with the foreign currency it can borrow in, and also whether it has a strong sponsor to assure banks that the REIT has a lower risk profile.</p><p>Contrast this to China-based <b>Sasseur REIT</b>(SGX: CRPU) which has a weighted average cost of debt of 4.5%.</p><p>Another important metric to look at is the proportion of fixed-rate debt within the REIT’s array of loans.</p><p>The higher this component, the more buffer it has when it comes to rising finance costs.</p><p>For MLT, 80% of its total debt is hedged or drawn in fixed rates.</p><p>Suburban retail REIT <b>Frasers Centrepoint Trust</b>(SGX: J69U), or FCT, has 69% of its total loans on fixed rates, while retail and commercial REIT <b>CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust</b>(SGX: C38U), or CICT, has 81% of its borrowings tied to fixed interest rates.</p><p><b>DPU sensitivity</b></p><p>Apart from debt metrics, REITs should also disclose the sensitivity of their distribution per unit (DPU) to the rise in base interest rates.</p><p>By doing so, investors can assess the approximate impact on the REIT’s distributions each time rates go up.</p><p>For CICT, every one percentage point rise in interest rates will lower DPU by S$0.0028.</p><p>The decline represents 2.7% of CICT’s trailing 12-month DPU of S$0.1044.</p><p>MLT estimates that a 0.25 percentage point increase in base interest rates will result in a S$0.0001 decline in DPU per quarter.</p><p>The decline is 0.4% of its fiscal 2023’s first quarter DPU of S$0.02268.</p><p><b>Frasers Logistics &amp; Commercial Trust</b>(SGX: BUOU) will witness a S$0.0005 fall in DPU for each 0.5 percentage point increase in interest rates for its variable rate loans.</p><p>This drop works out to be around 0.6% of the REIT’s annualised fiscal 2022’s first-half DPU of S$0.0385.</p><p>From the above examples, it’s easy to quantify the effects of rising interest rates on these REITs’ DPUs.</p><p>Although the recent surge in interest rates will result in across-the-board falls in DPU, REITs have various methods to mitigate this decline.</p><p><b>The impact of inflation</b></p><p>The third aspect to watch for is the effect of inflation on the operating expenses of the REIT.</p><p>Common property operating expenses include utilities, property management fees, marketing expenses, maintenance costs, and staff salaries.</p><p>There has already been news of a sharp jump in utility costs as electricity and gas expenses rose 23.9% year on year in August.</p><p>Labour costs are also expected to rise as employees demand higher salaries to cope with food and transport inflation.</p><p>These expenses will add up to reduce the distributable income for the REIT and is an area that investors should monitor in the coming quarters.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1602567310727","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore REITs: 3 Red Flags to Check Before You Buy</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore REITs: 3 Red Flags to Check Before You Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-17 09:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/singapore-reits-3-red-flags-to-check-before-you-buy/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Time flies and earnings season is almost upon us again.The usual practice is forREITsto report their results first followed by the trio of local banks.There is a change in the air, though.Investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/singapore-reits-3-red-flags-to-check-before-you-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/singapore-reits-3-red-flags-to-check-before-you-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129121473","content_text":"Time flies and earnings season is almost upon us again.The usual practice is forREITsto report their results first followed by the trio of local banks.There is a change in the air, though.Investors will be closely scrutinising this quarter’s REIT earnings amid an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates.The purpose is to assess if REITs may be adversely affected by these new economic developments.And if you are an income-seeking investor, you will be concerned about REITs’ ability to continue doling out distributions as costs increase.REITs are well-known for being reliable dividend payers, and investors are naturally concerned if this dependability may be disrupted.Here are three red flags you should watch out for when REITs report their results in the coming weeks.Debt metricsREITs are an asset class that relies heavily on borrowings to fund both their operations and acquisitions.Hence, it’s no surprise that interest rates have a significant bearing on REITs’ financial costs and, in turn, their distributable income.Investors need to look at each REIT’s debt metrics to assess how well it can cope with rising interest rates.First off, you need to look at the REIT’s cost of debt.A lower cost of debt ensures that the REIT has a bigger buffer in a rising interest rate environment.Take Mapletree Logistics Trust(SGX: M44U), or MLT.The logistics REIT sported a weighted average annualised cost of debt of 2.3% as of 30 June 2022.Parkway Life REIT(SGX: C2PU) boasts an even lower cost of borrowing with its all-in debt cost of just 0.61%.A REIT’s cost of debt has a lot to do with the foreign currency it can borrow in, and also whether it has a strong sponsor to assure banks that the REIT has a lower risk profile.Contrast this to China-based Sasseur REIT(SGX: CRPU) which has a weighted average cost of debt of 4.5%.Another important metric to look at is the proportion of fixed-rate debt within the REIT’s array of loans.The higher this component, the more buffer it has when it comes to rising finance costs.For MLT, 80% of its total debt is hedged or drawn in fixed rates.Suburban retail REIT Frasers Centrepoint Trust(SGX: J69U), or FCT, has 69% of its total loans on fixed rates, while retail and commercial REIT CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust(SGX: C38U), or CICT, has 81% of its borrowings tied to fixed interest rates.DPU sensitivityApart from debt metrics, REITs should also disclose the sensitivity of their distribution per unit (DPU) to the rise in base interest rates.By doing so, investors can assess the approximate impact on the REIT’s distributions each time rates go up.For CICT, every one percentage point rise in interest rates will lower DPU by S$0.0028.The decline represents 2.7% of CICT’s trailing 12-month DPU of S$0.1044.MLT estimates that a 0.25 percentage point increase in base interest rates will result in a S$0.0001 decline in DPU per quarter.The decline is 0.4% of its fiscal 2023’s first quarter DPU of S$0.02268.Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust(SGX: BUOU) will witness a S$0.0005 fall in DPU for each 0.5 percentage point increase in interest rates for its variable rate loans.This drop works out to be around 0.6% of the REIT’s annualised fiscal 2022’s first-half DPU of S$0.0385.From the above examples, it’s easy to quantify the effects of rising interest rates on these REITs’ DPUs.Although the recent surge in interest rates will result in across-the-board falls in DPU, REITs have various methods to mitigate this decline.The impact of inflationThe third aspect to watch for is the effect of inflation on the operating expenses of the REIT.Common property operating expenses include utilities, property management fees, marketing expenses, maintenance costs, and staff salaries.There has already been news of a sharp jump in utility costs as electricity and gas expenses rose 23.9% year on year in August.Labour costs are also expected to rise as employees demand higher salaries to cope with food and transport inflation.These expenses will add up to reduce the distributable income for the REIT and is an area that investors should monitor in the coming quarters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916235133,"gmtCreate":1664597044422,"gmtModify":1676537482932,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UL\">$Unilever PLC(UL)$</a>😬","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UL\">$Unilever PLC(UL)$</a>😬","text":"$Unilever PLC(UL)$😬","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94217783c3042c29b36270ffa3a7663b","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916235133","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916173368,"gmtCreate":1664545847655,"gmtModify":1676537475108,"author":{"id":"4105324811361770","authorId":"4105324811361770","name":"DodoOne","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cad27e45edc4c5fda582f35521fe85b5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105324811361770","authorIdStr":"4105324811361770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UL\">$Unilever PLC(UL)$</a>Hang in there...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UL\">$Unilever PLC(UL)$</a>Hang in there...","text":"$Unilever PLC(UL)$Hang in 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