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Nauzi08

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2023-08-21

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@TigerOptions:Unveiling BlackRock's Strategic Move on Palo Alto Networks

2023-08-21

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@JC888:Don't Invest In Chinese Stocks, US Is "Better"?

2023-08-21

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@TigerOptions:🚨 VinFast's Volatile Debut Signals Dangers Amidst Excitement

2022-10-08

[Cool]

Apple: Why I Bought More At $140

2022-05-31

[Happy]

Sea Limited: Another Strong Quarter; Profitability Could Be Turning A Corner

2022-05-29

[Miser]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-31

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$Yeah!

2022-03-10

[Cool]

Tesla May Be Reaching Critical Point

2022-03-09

😂

Is Sea Limited Stock a Buy Now?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/211044285370392","repostId":"210826739769448","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":210826739769448,"gmtCreate":1692496064098,"gmtModify":1692499735125,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572212908677301","authorIdStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"Unveiling BlackRock's Strategic Move on Palo Alto Networks","htmlText":"BlackRock, a global titan in asset management with a colossal portfolio exceeding $10 trillion, holds sway over the financial realm like few others. Under the stewardship of its renowned CEO, Larry Fink, BlackRock's decisions reverberate across economies and markets, making it a pivotal force in the investment landscape. The recent surge in its stake in <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PANW\">$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$&nbsp;</a>, a leader in the cybersecurity domain, is a testament to BlackRock's foresight and the strategic importance it places on navigating the ever-evolving technology sector. Leading the charge in the cybersecurity landscape is Palo Alto Networks, a company with a resounding mission to&nbsp;protect&nbsp;the digital realm against escalating cyber threats. Born in 2005, Pal","listText":"BlackRock, a global titan in asset management with a colossal portfolio exceeding $10 trillion, holds sway over the financial realm like few others. Under the stewardship of its renowned CEO, Larry Fink, BlackRock's decisions reverberate across economies and markets, making it a pivotal force in the investment landscape. The recent surge in its stake in <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PANW\">$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$&nbsp;</a>, a leader in the cybersecurity domain, is a testament to BlackRock's foresight and the strategic importance it places on navigating the ever-evolving technology sector. Leading the charge in the cybersecurity landscape is Palo Alto Networks, a company with a resounding mission to&nbsp;protect&nbsp;the digital realm against escalating cyber threats. Born in 2005, Pal","text":"BlackRock, a global titan in asset management with a colossal portfolio exceeding $10 trillion, holds sway over the financial realm like few others. Under the stewardship of its renowned CEO, Larry Fink, BlackRock's decisions reverberate across economies and markets, making it a pivotal force in the investment landscape. The recent surge in its stake in $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ , a leader in the cybersecurity domain, is a testament to BlackRock's foresight and the strategic importance it places on navigating the ever-evolving technology sector. Leading the charge in the cybersecurity landscape is Palo Alto Networks, a company with a resounding mission to protect the digital realm against escalating cyber threats. Born in 2005, Pal","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85f32fb25b508dc9a5a2992f7870e97c","width":"1024","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d4c7586ca4496c3c83e929d07b21f55f","width":"1024","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15513d46863e6062920f0b14b51ff5ce","width":"1515","height":"1317"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210826739769448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":211044931666080,"gmtCreate":1692549348629,"gmtModify":1692549351680,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/211044931666080","repostId":"210336806436928","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":210336806436928,"gmtCreate":1692376538729,"gmtModify":1692376656525,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorIdStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"Don't Invest In Chinese Stocks, US Is \"Better\"?","htmlText":"I think it is really risky to invest in Chinese stocks in the current climate. There I said it! When I mention “Chinese stocks”, I refer to stocks from both China and Hong Kong exchanges. Both China and Hong Kong economies are in a doldrum to put it mildly. This alone makes investment risky, when any economy is faltering due to many reasons. If you have been keeping up with the news coming out from China, you will concur too. (1) Property Market Crisis. China property market is facing a major crisis. Many developers (state backed and private) are roiling the nation’s dollar-bond market and adding to concerns about the health of China, the world’s second-largest economy. This includes Country Garden (latest developer) seeking delay payment (for another 3 years) on a private onshore bond for","listText":"I think it is really risky to invest in Chinese stocks in the current climate. There I said it! When I mention “Chinese stocks”, I refer to stocks from both China and Hong Kong exchanges. Both China and Hong Kong economies are in a doldrum to put it mildly. This alone makes investment risky, when any economy is faltering due to many reasons. If you have been keeping up with the news coming out from China, you will concur too. (1) Property Market Crisis. China property market is facing a major crisis. Many developers (state backed and private) are roiling the nation’s dollar-bond market and adding to concerns about the health of China, the world’s second-largest economy. This includes Country Garden (latest developer) seeking delay payment (for another 3 years) on a private onshore bond for","text":"I think it is really risky to invest in Chinese stocks in the current climate. There I said it! When I mention “Chinese stocks”, I refer to stocks from both China and Hong Kong exchanges. Both China and Hong Kong economies are in a doldrum to put it mildly. This alone makes investment risky, when any economy is faltering due to many reasons. If you have been keeping up with the news coming out from China, you will concur too. (1) Property Market Crisis. China property market is facing a major crisis. Many developers (state backed and private) are roiling the nation’s dollar-bond market and adding to concerns about the health of China, the world’s second-largest economy. This includes Country Garden (latest developer) seeking delay payment (for another 3 years) on a private onshore bond for","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f4ad72e80ca9e9bc6e911084d7e95b2a","width":"1796","height":"308"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6388262c0912af43ef1f1228baec6bd6","width":"1252","height":"211"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/65a02fc1fa73dde4f355891b4577d428","width":"808","height":"139"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210336806436928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":15,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":211044886786208,"gmtCreate":1692549337672,"gmtModify":1692549341048,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/211044886786208","repostId":"210657746620640","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":210657746620640,"gmtCreate":1692454917290,"gmtModify":1692455092248,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572212908677301","authorIdStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"🚨 VinFast's Volatile Debut Signals Dangers Amidst Excitement","htmlText":"The electric vehicle (EV) industry is undeniably one of the most promising sectors in today's market, with companies racing to secure their place in the future of transportation. Amidst this fervor, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VFS\">$VinFast Auto(VFS)$</a>, a Vietnamese electric automaker, made a grand entrance onto the Nasdaq, sending shockwaves through the financial world. However, as the dust settles, concerns emerge about the company's rapid rise and the potential dangers that lie beneath. VinFast began trading on the Nasdaq Tuesday. VinFast's debut was nothing short of spectacular. The company surged an astounding 255% on a trading day, capturing attention and amassing a market capitalization that momentarily surpassed established giants like <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GM\">$</a>","listText":"The electric vehicle (EV) industry is undeniably one of the most promising sectors in today's market, with companies racing to secure their place in the future of transportation. Amidst this fervor, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VFS\">$VinFast Auto(VFS)$</a>, a Vietnamese electric automaker, made a grand entrance onto the Nasdaq, sending shockwaves through the financial world. However, as the dust settles, concerns emerge about the company's rapid rise and the potential dangers that lie beneath. VinFast began trading on the Nasdaq Tuesday. VinFast's debut was nothing short of spectacular. The company surged an astounding 255% on a trading day, capturing attention and amassing a market capitalization that momentarily surpassed established giants like <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GM\">$</a>","text":"The electric vehicle (EV) industry is undeniably one of the most promising sectors in today's market, with companies racing to secure their place in the future of transportation. Amidst this fervor, $VinFast Auto(VFS)$, a Vietnamese electric automaker, made a grand entrance onto the Nasdaq, sending shockwaves through the financial world. However, as the dust settles, concerns emerge about the company's rapid rise and the potential dangers that lie beneath. VinFast began trading on the Nasdaq Tuesday. VinFast's debut was nothing short of spectacular. The company surged an astounding 255% on a trading day, capturing attention and amassing a market capitalization that momentarily surpassed established giants like $","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b6c65dfc9e1f0aa64750864e7c13d97","width":"591","height":"440"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210657746620640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914926454,"gmtCreate":1665166766178,"gmtModify":1676537566855,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914926454","repostId":"2273803113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273803113","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665131530,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273803113?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-07 16:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Why I Bought More At $140","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273803113","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI placed a limit buy order for Apple at $140 in September. The order was triggered last Frida","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I placed a limit buy order for Apple at $140 in September. The order was triggered last Friday thanks to market volatility, and now I own more shares.</li><li>There is no doubt that the business faces many short-term challenges.</li><li>However, as Buffett commented, if you have to closely follow the day-to-day stuff, you should not own it in the first place.</li><li>This wisdom is true for Apple more than anything else in my mind.</li><li>Moreover, the market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential and creates a mispricing.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14d264625dbfe4fe0a4446b0ae1cf349\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seremin</span></p><h2>Investment thesis</h2><p>During the last week of September (September 25 to be exact), I sent an alert to our marketplace members. The alert informed them that I placed a limit buy order for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) at $140 and mythought process (the stock price then was about $150.5). A price of $140 corresponds to about 22x of its FW PE. To me, any valuation near 20x is very attractive for a stock with ROCE (return on capital employed) near 100% like AAPL. At about 100% ROCE, a 5% investment rate would provide 5% organic real growth rates (i.e., before inflation adjustments). And a 22x PE would provide about 5% owners earnings yield, leading to a total return close to double digits. For a stock like AAPL, I am always happy to buy/add when the total annual return is close to 10% or above. A 10% return is healthy enough to start with. Once you adjust for the risks (and I consider the risks from AAPL similar to treasury bonds), a 10% annual return is almost 3x of what you can get from bonds in the long term.</p><p>Also, to put things under historical perspective, a valuation around 22x is also below the historical average of 24.7x in recent years by about 10% (11% to be exact), leaving a comfortable margin of safety. And also, bear in mind that the stock was so obviously before 2021 and those levels are outliers in my mind. So, the historical average of 24.75x is already biased.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0abaa433019690a8212d9df8d71726d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>All told, thanks to market volatility, the stock price dipped below $140 a few days later on Sept 30. The order is triggered, and now I own more AAPL shares. I of course do not want to pretend that I have any idea that its price would actually dip below $140 or not. However, I do have a good sense of its intrinsic value and the magnitude of market gyrations. And as a long-term and patient investor, I do know that 22x PE is a good deal for a stock like AAPL.</p><h2>Near-term challenges</h2><p>There is no shortage of external challenges in the near term. And these challenges can be substantial, too. They will continue to weigh on performance over the near term. These challenges include new variants of COVID-19, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, unfavorable currency exchange rates, and high inflation and rising interest rates. In particular, you can see the effects that these headwinds have exerted on its margins. Over the past few quarters, its gross margin shrank by more than 200 basis points from a peak of 43.76% to 41.04%. Net profit margin shrank even more, by more than 450 basis points from a peak of 27.9% to 23.4%. China, its key market, had to lock down several of its key cities in the H1 of the year due to COVID-19, and the ongoing pandemic situation probably would lead to more lockdowns, which have impacted its sales and production and would very likely continue to in the near future.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f2a9e2475e37539082fb89230bb995b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>AAPL and Buffettism</h2><p>However, as Buffett commented, if you have to closely follow the day-to-day stuff of a stock, you should not own it in the first place. He was once asked about his AAPL position during a Yahoo! Finance interview. You can see the full interview here, full of typical Buffett-style wisdom and highly recommended. The following is an excerpt and the highlights are added by me.</p><blockquote><i>Yahoo Finance: how closely do you follow the company? You know, people are concerned they really have not introduced any new products.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Buffett:</i> <i><b>Well, if you have to closely follow the company, you should not own it in the first place. If you buy a business, say you buy a farm, do you go up and look every couple of weeks to see how far the corn has grown up?</b></i> <i>Do you worry too much about whether somebody says this year is going to be a year of low corn prices because exports are being affected or something? You know, it does not grow faster if I go and stare at it…</i><i><b>AlthoughI do care over the years that it is well tended to in terms of rotating crops. And I hope yields get better.</b></i></blockquote><p>In my mind, this wisdom is truer for Apple than anything else. A high-yield farm is what exactly it is. As a high-yield farm, investors should have the perspective to overlook its daily (or even yearly) noises and focus on the long term, as detailed next.</p><h2>Business outlook and projected returns</h2><p>I am optimistic about its future. The company has displayed remarkable resilience in the face of the difficult operating backdrop in the past. And I am certain that this time is no different. The inflation or drag from foreign exchange rates may worsen in the near term. But remember, Buffett&#39;s other wisdom is<i>not</i>to pick stocks based on macroeconomic parameters - which are totally unpredictable and out of anyone&#39;s control.</p><p>Altogether, consensus estimates look for share net to come in around $6.46 in 2023. And again, at a price of $140, the PE would be about 22x. Based on the consensus estimates, the growth rate would be about 4.6% CAGR in the next few years, which agrees with my back-of-envelope estimate closely. As aforementioned, at about 100% ROCE, a 5% investment rate would provide 5% organic real growth rates.</p><p>All told, a 22x entry PE, combined with a ~5% growth rate, should provide about 10% total return for a long-term business owner.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d4adcc41419bcccde9ab540b89f003c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p>Notably, services-related revenues should continue to advance and represent a strong engine for future growth. In this sense, AAPL is transitioning (or you can argue it has successfully transitioned already) from a hardware business into a subscription-based SaaS business.</p><p>According to this report, it added ~30 million paid subscriptions in 2022 alone. Total revenues from services have been growing steadily and rapidly over the years and have reached $19.8 billion. In Q2 2022. Compared to $17.0 billion raked in from services during Q2 2021, this represented an annual growth rate of 16.5%, far outpacing the growth rates of its total revenue. Broadening the timeframe a bit, the growth in its revenues from services has grown more than 230% since 2017, also far outpacing the growth of its product sales (which increased by about 160%). In its latest earnings report, Tim Cook reported a mind-boggling total of 816 million paid subscriptions across its various services ranging from Apple Music, iCloud, and Apple TV+.</p><p>Going forward, I see such a large user base to further grow given Apple&#39;s popularity and premium status. In my view, the market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential. As seen from the chart below, it is trading at a sizeable discount relative to other more &#34;standard&#34; SaaS stocks. To wit, in terms of FY1 PE, it is trading slightly below Microsoft Corporation by about 4%, about 20% below Intuit Inc, and more than 27% below Salesforce Inc.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267e4208372cf220c56b8cfcab38cd7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2>Risks and final thoughts</h2><p>To recap, there is no doubt that the business faces many short-term challenges. These challenges include the veritable list of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing Russian/Ukraine situation, currency exchange rates, high inflation, and global supply chain disruptions. It also faces its own unique challenges such as margin pressure, cost control, and disruptions in its key China market.</p><p>However, the whole point of owning a stock like AAPL is that you do not have to worry about the quarterly noises. If you do, you defeat the purpose completely and should not own it in the first place. To me, any valuation near 20x is very attractive for a stock with ROCE and financial strength like AAPL. A ~20x PE provides about 5% owner&#39;s earnings yield. And an ROCE near 100% easily leads to 5% growth rates with minimal reinvestments, resulting in a double-digit return potential already.</p><p>Finally, specific to AAPL, the revenues and growth composition are also shifting to service and subscription, further augmenting its stickiness and profitability. The market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential and most likely will regret it.</p><p><i>This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Why I Bought More At $140</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Why I Bought More At $140\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-07 16:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544974-apple-why-i-bought-more-140><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI placed a limit buy order for Apple at $140 in September. The order was triggered last Friday thanks to market volatility, and now I own more shares.There is no doubt that the business faces ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544974-apple-why-i-bought-more-140\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544974-apple-why-i-bought-more-140","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273803113","content_text":"SummaryI placed a limit buy order for Apple at $140 in September. The order was triggered last Friday thanks to market volatility, and now I own more shares.There is no doubt that the business faces many short-term challenges.However, as Buffett commented, if you have to closely follow the day-to-day stuff, you should not own it in the first place.This wisdom is true for Apple more than anything else in my mind.Moreover, the market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential and creates a mispricing.SereminInvestment thesisDuring the last week of September (September 25 to be exact), I sent an alert to our marketplace members. The alert informed them that I placed a limit buy order for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) at $140 and mythought process (the stock price then was about $150.5). A price of $140 corresponds to about 22x of its FW PE. To me, any valuation near 20x is very attractive for a stock with ROCE (return on capital employed) near 100% like AAPL. At about 100% ROCE, a 5% investment rate would provide 5% organic real growth rates (i.e., before inflation adjustments). And a 22x PE would provide about 5% owners earnings yield, leading to a total return close to double digits. For a stock like AAPL, I am always happy to buy/add when the total annual return is close to 10% or above. A 10% return is healthy enough to start with. Once you adjust for the risks (and I consider the risks from AAPL similar to treasury bonds), a 10% annual return is almost 3x of what you can get from bonds in the long term.Also, to put things under historical perspective, a valuation around 22x is also below the historical average of 24.7x in recent years by about 10% (11% to be exact), leaving a comfortable margin of safety. And also, bear in mind that the stock was so obviously before 2021 and those levels are outliers in my mind. So, the historical average of 24.75x is already biased.Source: Seeking Alpha dataAll told, thanks to market volatility, the stock price dipped below $140 a few days later on Sept 30. The order is triggered, and now I own more AAPL shares. I of course do not want to pretend that I have any idea that its price would actually dip below $140 or not. However, I do have a good sense of its intrinsic value and the magnitude of market gyrations. And as a long-term and patient investor, I do know that 22x PE is a good deal for a stock like AAPL.Near-term challengesThere is no shortage of external challenges in the near term. And these challenges can be substantial, too. They will continue to weigh on performance over the near term. These challenges include new variants of COVID-19, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, unfavorable currency exchange rates, and high inflation and rising interest rates. In particular, you can see the effects that these headwinds have exerted on its margins. Over the past few quarters, its gross margin shrank by more than 200 basis points from a peak of 43.76% to 41.04%. Net profit margin shrank even more, by more than 450 basis points from a peak of 27.9% to 23.4%. China, its key market, had to lock down several of its key cities in the H1 of the year due to COVID-19, and the ongoing pandemic situation probably would lead to more lockdowns, which have impacted its sales and production and would very likely continue to in the near future.Source: Seeking Alpha dataAAPL and BuffettismHowever, as Buffett commented, if you have to closely follow the day-to-day stuff of a stock, you should not own it in the first place. He was once asked about his AAPL position during a Yahoo! Finance interview. You can see the full interview here, full of typical Buffett-style wisdom and highly recommended. The following is an excerpt and the highlights are added by me.Yahoo Finance: how closely do you follow the company? You know, people are concerned they really have not introduced any new products.Buffett: Well, if you have to closely follow the company, you should not own it in the first place. If you buy a business, say you buy a farm, do you go up and look every couple of weeks to see how far the corn has grown up? Do you worry too much about whether somebody says this year is going to be a year of low corn prices because exports are being affected or something? You know, it does not grow faster if I go and stare at it…AlthoughI do care over the years that it is well tended to in terms of rotating crops. And I hope yields get better.In my mind, this wisdom is truer for Apple than anything else. A high-yield farm is what exactly it is. As a high-yield farm, investors should have the perspective to overlook its daily (or even yearly) noises and focus on the long term, as detailed next.Business outlook and projected returnsI am optimistic about its future. The company has displayed remarkable resilience in the face of the difficult operating backdrop in the past. And I am certain that this time is no different. The inflation or drag from foreign exchange rates may worsen in the near term. But remember, Buffett's other wisdom isnotto pick stocks based on macroeconomic parameters - which are totally unpredictable and out of anyone's control.Altogether, consensus estimates look for share net to come in around $6.46 in 2023. And again, at a price of $140, the PE would be about 22x. Based on the consensus estimates, the growth rate would be about 4.6% CAGR in the next few years, which agrees with my back-of-envelope estimate closely. As aforementioned, at about 100% ROCE, a 5% investment rate would provide 5% organic real growth rates.All told, a 22x entry PE, combined with a ~5% growth rate, should provide about 10% total return for a long-term business owner.Source: Seeking Alpha dataNotably, services-related revenues should continue to advance and represent a strong engine for future growth. In this sense, AAPL is transitioning (or you can argue it has successfully transitioned already) from a hardware business into a subscription-based SaaS business.According to this report, it added ~30 million paid subscriptions in 2022 alone. Total revenues from services have been growing steadily and rapidly over the years and have reached $19.8 billion. In Q2 2022. Compared to $17.0 billion raked in from services during Q2 2021, this represented an annual growth rate of 16.5%, far outpacing the growth rates of its total revenue. Broadening the timeframe a bit, the growth in its revenues from services has grown more than 230% since 2017, also far outpacing the growth of its product sales (which increased by about 160%). In its latest earnings report, Tim Cook reported a mind-boggling total of 816 million paid subscriptions across its various services ranging from Apple Music, iCloud, and Apple TV+.Going forward, I see such a large user base to further grow given Apple's popularity and premium status. In my view, the market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential. As seen from the chart below, it is trading at a sizeable discount relative to other more \"standard\" SaaS stocks. To wit, in terms of FY1 PE, it is trading slightly below Microsoft Corporation by about 4%, about 20% below Intuit Inc, and more than 27% below Salesforce Inc.Source: Seeking Alpha dataRisks and final thoughtsTo recap, there is no doubt that the business faces many short-term challenges. These challenges include the veritable list of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing Russian/Ukraine situation, currency exchange rates, high inflation, and global supply chain disruptions. It also faces its own unique challenges such as margin pressure, cost control, and disruptions in its key China market.However, the whole point of owning a stock like AAPL is that you do not have to worry about the quarterly noises. If you do, you defeat the purpose completely and should not own it in the first place. To me, any valuation near 20x is very attractive for a stock with ROCE and financial strength like AAPL. A ~20x PE provides about 5% owner's earnings yield. And an ROCE near 100% easily leads to 5% growth rates with minimal reinvestments, resulting in a double-digit return potential already.Finally, specific to AAPL, the revenues and growth composition are also shifting to service and subscription, further augmenting its stickiness and profitability. The market underestimates (or misunderstands) its SaaS potential and most likely will regret it.This article is written by Envision Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027977936,"gmtCreate":1653964509325,"gmtModify":1676535370637,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027977936","repostId":"2239175639","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2239175639","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653961868,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2239175639?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-31 09:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: Another Strong Quarter; Profitability Could Be Turning A Corner","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2239175639","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummarySea Limited reported a strong start to the year with revenue growing 64% yoy to $2.9 billion,","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Sea Limited reported a strong start to the year with revenue growing 64% yoy to $2.9 billion, quickly approaching a $15 billion run-rate level.</li><li>The biggest concern remains around profitability, with adjusted EBITDA losses of $510 million, though underlying profitability seems to be improving.</li><li>The 60% year-to-date pullback has caused valuation to become more attractive at just over 2x 2023 revenue.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22086b20b6b4b8ea693bc38de55c6691\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>piranka/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p>Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) recently reported a strong start to the year with revenue growing 64% yoy to $2.9 billion and beating expectations by $40 million. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, the company continues to beat revenue expectations.</p><p>In addition, while adjusted EBITDA loss widened from the year ago period, it came in better than expectations. The company has a significant amount of increased expenses coming from the new headquarters project in addition to increased S&amp;M and R&amp;D expense. I believe investors will continue to focus on adjusted EBITDA and given the company’s growing scale, I believe profitability will improve over the coming quarters.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365f99950bf043fec2919ffa4dfec814\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>The stock is down over 60% year to date which is largely being driven by investors focusing on higher profitability companies. With fears rising around a potential recession, investors are looking to add recession-proof positions to their portfolio, and unfortunately with over $1.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA losses likely in 2022, Sea does not currently fit into that category.</p><p>However, I do believe that long-term investors will be rewarded with the stock now under $85. The last time the stock was trading at this level was in May 2020 (aside from a short period a few weeks ago), shortly after the pandemic began and E-Commerce sales significantly accelerated. The stock is still up over 50% from pre-pandemic levels, however 2022 revenue is likely to be up over 4x that of 2019, so some stock appreciation is definitely warranted.</p><p>The stock is currently trading at just over 2x 2023 revenue, which appears to be a good entry point for longer-term investors. Revenue growth has significant room to go and while losses are still being generated, I would not be surprised to see profitability breakeven during late 2023 or early 2024.</p><p>The 60%+ year to date pullback provides a good entry point at current valuation and longer-term investors should be willing to hold onto the stock during some volatile periods.</p><p><b>Q1 Earnings Recap</b></p><p>Revenue during the quarter grew an impressive 64% yoy to $2.9 billion and beat expectations by around $40 million. The company is quickly approaching a $15 billion revenue run-rate and with revenue still growing well above 50%, it’s no surprise many investors follow this name.</p><p>However, what impressed me the most was the company’s continued focus and improvement on profitability. Especially during a time when investors are turning their focus towards more stable, profitable companies in fear of a potential recession, SE’s ability to demonstrate profitability improvement is paramount to a turnaround in the stock’s performance.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9915f5cf65f2ff871327ad5d7c4f2a79\" tg-width=\"447\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited</span></p><p>Gross profit during the quarter grew 81% yoy to $1.2 billion and reflected a gross margin of 40.4%, improving quite nicely relative to 36.6% in the year ago period. To me, this demonstrates the underlying high incremental margins the company generates when at scale.</p><p>Adjusted EBITDA, while still bearing the losses from their E-Commerce segment, seems to have stabilized and beat expectations. During the quarter, adjusted EBITDA loss was $510 million and while lower than the $88 million profit in the year ago period, this was well above consensus expectations for a $570 million loss. The biggest variance relative to the year-ago period was ~$525 million increase in S&amp;M and R&amp;D expense, which will be better utilized as the company scales.</p><p>While I do believe the company will likely print several more quarters of adjusted EBITDA losses, the combination of gross margin improvement and the company gaining more scale gives me increased confidence in the longer-term profitability trajectory.</p><p><b>Digital Entertainment</b></p><p>During the quarter, Digital Entertainment revenue grew 45% yoy to $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $431 million.</p><p>While the headline numbers look strong, I believe there is more fire power to come. Quarterly active users declined 5% yoy and quarterly paying users were down 23% yoy, with management acknowledging a slowdown in user engagement.</p><blockquote><i>While Garena experienced headwinds in its growth post-COVID, we saw some preliminary positive effects from our efforts to improve user engagement in Free Fire. In particular, the monthly user trends for Free Fire began to show some early signs of stabilizing toward the end of the first quarter. While this is encouraging, the longer-term impact of reopening around Free Fire remains to be seen and we will continue to focus on user engagement and user base stabilization.</i></blockquote><p>Free Fire, the company’s self-developed global game, maintained their premium status throughout the world. While some bearish arguments focus on the company only having one global leading franchise, I believe this is more than enough for investors to remain excited about. Plus, the company continues to spend hundreds of millions of dollars each quarter in R&amp;D, and it would not surprise me to see future game developments.</p><p>Regarding Free Fire, this game continues to collect accolades throughout the world, with management noting the following:</p><blockquote><i>It [Free Fire] remained the most downloaded mobile game globally in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>In the same category, for Google Play, Free Fire also ranked third globally by average monthly active users in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia and Latin America for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3 . Free Fire has maintained this leading position for the past 11 consecutive quarters in Southeast Asia and in Latin America.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>In the United States, Free Fire was the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for 5 consecutive quarters for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3</i></blockquote><p>Despite the headwinds from lower user engagement, the company did increase their paying user ratio to 10.0% during the quarter, up from 8.9% in Q1-2020. I believe this remains an area of longer-term growth potential, as only 1 in 10 users is actually a paid user. This penetration is not likely to meaningfully accelerate in a short period of time, but if the company can grow users and improve their paying user ratio, this has a compounding effect towards growth.</p><p><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p>E-Commerce revenue grew 64% yoy to $1.5 billion, including $1.3 billion of marketplace revenue that grew 75% yoy. The strong growth during the quarter was led by a 71% growth in gross orders, reaching 1.9 billion, and GMV growing 39% yoy to $17.4 billion, both demonstrating the strong underlying demand trends within this segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583040a8e888b18b000de499a4d1b880\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited</span></p><p>Nevertheless, the closely followed metric of adjusted EBITDA loss came in at $743 million, which was worse than the $413 million loss in the year ago period. However, there are a few moving pieces within E-Commerce adjusted EBITDA that should be addressed.</p><p>First, gross profit margin for this segment improved yoy as the company saw faster growth of transaction-based fees and advertising income, which both carry higher profit margins.</p><p>Second, the E-Commerce adjusted EBITDA loss per order (before the company’s new headquarters’ common expense) improved yoy and sequentially. In fact, Shopee is expected to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA (before headquarters’ expense) in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by this year. Even when including the costs associated with the headquarters, the company is projecting adjusted EBITDA to be positive in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by the end of next year.</p><p>Finally, adjusted EBITDA loss per order was $0.40 during the quarter, which was slightly worse than the $0.38 loss per order in the year-ago period. However, this was largely due to headquarters expenses increasing by $162 million yoy, accounting for nearly 50% of the total yoy increase in adjusted EBITDA loss. Excluding this expense, adjusted EBITDA loss per order would have improved to a little over $0.30.</p><p>Yes, there continues to be a lot of room for improvement, but the underlying trends are much better than they appear at face value.</p><p><b>Digital Financial Services</b></p><p>While revenue in this segment remains relatively small compared to Digital Entertainment and E-Commerce, revenue of $236 million grew 360% yoy and adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $125 million (compared to a loss of $153 million in the year ago period).</p><p>The number of quarterly active users grew 78% yoy to 49 million with TPV for their mobile wallet growing 49% to $5.1 billion.</p><p>In addition, the company noted that active users are starting to utilize multiple products/services, and a higher attach rate could ultimately lead to faster revenue growth and profitability improvement.</p><blockquote><i>In Indonesia, which has the most comprehensive set of products and services among our markets, over 30% of the quarterly active users have used multiple SeaMoney products or services in the first quarter of 2022.</i></blockquote><p>I believe this segment remains a bit of a hidden gem as revenue has not quite scaled and it still generates adjusted EBITDA losses. However, as more consumers become entrenched in E-Commerce and accustomed to using digital wallets within the SeaMoney ecosystem, I believe there remains a long runway of growth ahead.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Given continued uncertainty in the global macroenvironment, especially across the Asia-Pacific region, the company provided a wider range of their E-Commerce revenue expectations. They now expect E-Commerce revenue to be $8.5-9.1 billion (~72% growth at the midpoint), which was lowered at the low-end from the previous guidance range of $8.9-9.1 billion.</p><p>While disappointed with the commentary, it’s important to note that only the low-end of guidance was changed. Given the cautious macroenvironment and challenging supply chain, it’s not overly surprising to see the company provide a wider range of outcomes.</p><p>The stock remains down over 60% year to date has investors heavily punished the company’s heightened valuation and international exposure in a time where recession fears are rising. The stock is now trading near May 2020 levels, shortly after the pandemic began, though I believe long-term investors should still remain confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8d4de31d2f2c1a50a66e8209687ea4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>The stock has a current market cap of ~$46.3 billion and with net cash of ~8.5 billion, the company has an enterprise value of ~$37.8 billion.</p><p>According to Yahoo Finance, consensus is expecting ~$18 billion of revenue in 2023, which would imply only ~2.1x 2023 revenue multiple. At the peak, the stock was trading over 10x forward revenue, which seemed a little aggressive given the lack of profitability.</p><p>However, at just over 2x 2023 revenue, it does appear that a lot of risk is already priced in the stock. While I am not advocating for the stock to re-rate back towards 10x forward revenue, I do believe valuation could improve over time as revenue growth remains healthy and the company takes steps to improve their profitability.</p><p>Given the significant pullback year to date and positive Q1 results, I believe SE is a good investment at under $85.</p><p>I believe the biggest risk to the company is macroeconomic factors. If the global economy were to slowdown and consumer spending deteriorates, the company’s E-Commerce and Digital Financial Services segments would be negatively impacted. In addition, if the company is not able to improve user engagement within Digital Entertainment, investors may push the stock lower over time.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Another Strong Quarter; Profitability Could Be Turning A Corner</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Another Strong Quarter; Profitability Could Be Turning A Corner\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-31 09:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515158-sea-strong-quarter-profitability-turning-corner><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySea Limited reported a strong start to the year with revenue growing 64% yoy to $2.9 billion, quickly approaching a $15 billion run-rate level.The biggest concern remains around profitability, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515158-sea-strong-quarter-profitability-turning-corner\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515158-sea-strong-quarter-profitability-turning-corner","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2239175639","content_text":"SummarySea Limited reported a strong start to the year with revenue growing 64% yoy to $2.9 billion, quickly approaching a $15 billion run-rate level.The biggest concern remains around profitability, with adjusted EBITDA losses of $510 million, though underlying profitability seems to be improving.The 60% year-to-date pullback has caused valuation to become more attractive at just over 2x 2023 revenue.piranka/E+ via Getty ImagesSea Limited (NYSE:SE) recently reported a strong start to the year with revenue growing 64% yoy to $2.9 billion and beating expectations by $40 million. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, the company continues to beat revenue expectations.In addition, while adjusted EBITDA loss widened from the year ago period, it came in better than expectations. The company has a significant amount of increased expenses coming from the new headquarters project in addition to increased S&M and R&D expense. I believe investors will continue to focus on adjusted EBITDA and given the company’s growing scale, I believe profitability will improve over the coming quarters.Data by YChartsThe stock is down over 60% year to date which is largely being driven by investors focusing on higher profitability companies. With fears rising around a potential recession, investors are looking to add recession-proof positions to their portfolio, and unfortunately with over $1.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA losses likely in 2022, Sea does not currently fit into that category.However, I do believe that long-term investors will be rewarded with the stock now under $85. The last time the stock was trading at this level was in May 2020 (aside from a short period a few weeks ago), shortly after the pandemic began and E-Commerce sales significantly accelerated. The stock is still up over 50% from pre-pandemic levels, however 2022 revenue is likely to be up over 4x that of 2019, so some stock appreciation is definitely warranted.The stock is currently trading at just over 2x 2023 revenue, which appears to be a good entry point for longer-term investors. Revenue growth has significant room to go and while losses are still being generated, I would not be surprised to see profitability breakeven during late 2023 or early 2024.The 60%+ year to date pullback provides a good entry point at current valuation and longer-term investors should be willing to hold onto the stock during some volatile periods.Q1 Earnings RecapRevenue during the quarter grew an impressive 64% yoy to $2.9 billion and beat expectations by around $40 million. The company is quickly approaching a $15 billion revenue run-rate and with revenue still growing well above 50%, it’s no surprise many investors follow this name.However, what impressed me the most was the company’s continued focus and improvement on profitability. Especially during a time when investors are turning their focus towards more stable, profitable companies in fear of a potential recession, SE’s ability to demonstrate profitability improvement is paramount to a turnaround in the stock’s performance.Sea LimitedGross profit during the quarter grew 81% yoy to $1.2 billion and reflected a gross margin of 40.4%, improving quite nicely relative to 36.6% in the year ago period. To me, this demonstrates the underlying high incremental margins the company generates when at scale.Adjusted EBITDA, while still bearing the losses from their E-Commerce segment, seems to have stabilized and beat expectations. During the quarter, adjusted EBITDA loss was $510 million and while lower than the $88 million profit in the year ago period, this was well above consensus expectations for a $570 million loss. The biggest variance relative to the year-ago period was ~$525 million increase in S&M and R&D expense, which will be better utilized as the company scales.While I do believe the company will likely print several more quarters of adjusted EBITDA losses, the combination of gross margin improvement and the company gaining more scale gives me increased confidence in the longer-term profitability trajectory.Digital EntertainmentDuring the quarter, Digital Entertainment revenue grew 45% yoy to $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $431 million.While the headline numbers look strong, I believe there is more fire power to come. Quarterly active users declined 5% yoy and quarterly paying users were down 23% yoy, with management acknowledging a slowdown in user engagement.While Garena experienced headwinds in its growth post-COVID, we saw some preliminary positive effects from our efforts to improve user engagement in Free Fire. In particular, the monthly user trends for Free Fire began to show some early signs of stabilizing toward the end of the first quarter. While this is encouraging, the longer-term impact of reopening around Free Fire remains to be seen and we will continue to focus on user engagement and user base stabilization.Free Fire, the company’s self-developed global game, maintained their premium status throughout the world. While some bearish arguments focus on the company only having one global leading franchise, I believe this is more than enough for investors to remain excited about. Plus, the company continues to spend hundreds of millions of dollars each quarter in R&D, and it would not surprise me to see future game developments.Regarding Free Fire, this game continues to collect accolades throughout the world, with management noting the following:It [Free Fire] remained the most downloaded mobile game globally in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.In the same category, for Google Play, Free Fire also ranked third globally by average monthly active users in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia and Latin America for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3 . Free Fire has maintained this leading position for the past 11 consecutive quarters in Southeast Asia and in Latin America.In the United States, Free Fire was the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for 5 consecutive quarters for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3Despite the headwinds from lower user engagement, the company did increase their paying user ratio to 10.0% during the quarter, up from 8.9% in Q1-2020. I believe this remains an area of longer-term growth potential, as only 1 in 10 users is actually a paid user. This penetration is not likely to meaningfully accelerate in a short period of time, but if the company can grow users and improve their paying user ratio, this has a compounding effect towards growth.E-CommerceE-Commerce revenue grew 64% yoy to $1.5 billion, including $1.3 billion of marketplace revenue that grew 75% yoy. The strong growth during the quarter was led by a 71% growth in gross orders, reaching 1.9 billion, and GMV growing 39% yoy to $17.4 billion, both demonstrating the strong underlying demand trends within this segment.Sea LimitedNevertheless, the closely followed metric of adjusted EBITDA loss came in at $743 million, which was worse than the $413 million loss in the year ago period. However, there are a few moving pieces within E-Commerce adjusted EBITDA that should be addressed.First, gross profit margin for this segment improved yoy as the company saw faster growth of transaction-based fees and advertising income, which both carry higher profit margins.Second, the E-Commerce adjusted EBITDA loss per order (before the company’s new headquarters’ common expense) improved yoy and sequentially. In fact, Shopee is expected to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA (before headquarters’ expense) in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by this year. Even when including the costs associated with the headquarters, the company is projecting adjusted EBITDA to be positive in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by the end of next year.Finally, adjusted EBITDA loss per order was $0.40 during the quarter, which was slightly worse than the $0.38 loss per order in the year-ago period. However, this was largely due to headquarters expenses increasing by $162 million yoy, accounting for nearly 50% of the total yoy increase in adjusted EBITDA loss. Excluding this expense, adjusted EBITDA loss per order would have improved to a little over $0.30.Yes, there continues to be a lot of room for improvement, but the underlying trends are much better than they appear at face value.Digital Financial ServicesWhile revenue in this segment remains relatively small compared to Digital Entertainment and E-Commerce, revenue of $236 million grew 360% yoy and adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $125 million (compared to a loss of $153 million in the year ago period).The number of quarterly active users grew 78% yoy to 49 million with TPV for their mobile wallet growing 49% to $5.1 billion.In addition, the company noted that active users are starting to utilize multiple products/services, and a higher attach rate could ultimately lead to faster revenue growth and profitability improvement.In Indonesia, which has the most comprehensive set of products and services among our markets, over 30% of the quarterly active users have used multiple SeaMoney products or services in the first quarter of 2022.I believe this segment remains a bit of a hidden gem as revenue has not quite scaled and it still generates adjusted EBITDA losses. However, as more consumers become entrenched in E-Commerce and accustomed to using digital wallets within the SeaMoney ecosystem, I believe there remains a long runway of growth ahead.ValuationGiven continued uncertainty in the global macroenvironment, especially across the Asia-Pacific region, the company provided a wider range of their E-Commerce revenue expectations. They now expect E-Commerce revenue to be $8.5-9.1 billion (~72% growth at the midpoint), which was lowered at the low-end from the previous guidance range of $8.9-9.1 billion.While disappointed with the commentary, it’s important to note that only the low-end of guidance was changed. Given the cautious macroenvironment and challenging supply chain, it’s not overly surprising to see the company provide a wider range of outcomes.The stock remains down over 60% year to date has investors heavily punished the company’s heightened valuation and international exposure in a time where recession fears are rising. The stock is now trading near May 2020 levels, shortly after the pandemic began, though I believe long-term investors should still remain confident.Data by YChartsThe stock has a current market cap of ~$46.3 billion and with net cash of ~8.5 billion, the company has an enterprise value of ~$37.8 billion.According to Yahoo Finance, consensus is expecting ~$18 billion of revenue in 2023, which would imply only ~2.1x 2023 revenue multiple. At the peak, the stock was trading over 10x forward revenue, which seemed a little aggressive given the lack of profitability.However, at just over 2x 2023 revenue, it does appear that a lot of risk is already priced in the stock. While I am not advocating for the stock to re-rate back towards 10x forward revenue, I do believe valuation could improve over time as revenue growth remains healthy and the company takes steps to improve their profitability.Given the significant pullback year to date and positive Q1 results, I believe SE is a good investment at under $85.I believe the biggest risk to the company is macroeconomic factors. If the global economy were to slowdown and consumer spending deteriorates, the company’s E-Commerce and Digital Financial Services segments would be negatively impacted. In addition, if the company is not able to improve user engagement within Digital Entertainment, investors may push the stock lower over time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024153638,"gmtCreate":1653828557324,"gmtModify":1676535347600,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024153638","repostId":"2238988779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013901897,"gmtCreate":1648671570732,"gmtModify":1676534373806,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>Yeah!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>Yeah!","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$Yeah!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25efdaa3432e4fb2d805e08fb881bbbb","width":"1125","height":"3063"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013901897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038251559,"gmtCreate":1646847416738,"gmtModify":1676534169302,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038251559","repostId":"1157057946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157057946","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646837534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157057946?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-09 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla May Be Reaching Critical Point","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157057946","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade U","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Berlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.</li><li>Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.</li><li>Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.</li></ul><p>With Russia deciding to invade Ukraine recently, electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has received a lot of attention. With the prices of oil and gasoline soaring, consumers and global governments are looking toward a future of renewable energy and less ICE vehicles. While the overall craziness around Tesla from years back seemed to have settled down, the future of the company could actually be reaching a critical point rather soon.</p><p>Part of the bull case for last year was the opening of two new factories that would help with the company&#39;s next leg of growth. As we&#39;ve seen with a number of past Tesla items, delays ensued, but things are finally progressing. The first deliveries from these factories should start in the coming months, although they aren&#39;t likely to make any meaningful contributions until much later this year. In terms of pure volume growth, the Berlin and Austin facilities are more important items for next year&#39;s delivery surge.</p><p>Now that these factories are starting to produce vehicles, I&#39;m curious to see how street analysts react. As I&#39;ve detailed in previous articles, the street has been extremely conservative with regard to Tesla in recent quarters. As the table below shows, one analyst even sees Q4 revenues this year coming in below last year&#39;s Q4 total sales figure. Most Tesla bulls see at least an extra 125,000 deliveries in this year&#39;s Q4, so how is it possible that the company report lower revenue? These extremely low estimates continue to drag overall averages down, which helps Tesla report delivery, revenue, and earnings beats that don&#39;t truly reflect the reality here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a3c38eb92e463dd471485692153ab34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"111\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha Estimates Page)</p><p>As for the current quarter, total revenues are expected to be down a little sequentially, implying flat to slightly higher deliveries. That implies around 310,000 deliveries for Q1, a bit below my current expectation for 324,000. We got decent numbers out of China for January, and we&#39;re expected to get February numbers rather soon. Perhaps good data on that front will get the street average up a bit to a more realistic expectation.</p><p>With gasoline prices soaring in recent weeks, the spotlight on electric vehicles has certainly increased. However, Tesla also faces a hit from the Russia situation as the country is a key nickel producer, and other commodity prices have also soared. Cobalt, copper, and lithium carbonate prices are on the rise as well, which could dent Tesla&#39;s margins in the coming quarters unless the company raises prices again. The consumers being hurt the most by rising energy prices can&#39;t just go out and buy EVs that start at $60,000, which will impact the ongoing shift to electric vehicles.</p><p>Since Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, for instance, prices of copper have nearly doubled, while cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices have more than doubled. That&#39;s going to make it hard for Tesla to achieve that sub $40,000 price point, unless it wants to lose a bit of money. For those arguing about massive battery savings coming up, just remember that the Model 3 starts at nearly $45,000 currently, and that&#39;s a much smaller vehicle and one that has been in mass production for years. Tesla is currently estimated to have well over a million reservations for the Cybertruck, so it will be interesting to see how many orders are canceled if prices jump 10%, 25%, or more once the vehicle actually comes to market.</p><p>Perhaps the biggest risk for Tesla currently doesn&#39;t actually involve everyday operations, as there are a number of ongoing high profile lawsuits involving the company and or Elon Musk. As the company&#39;s10-K filing details, a decision on the lawsuit against the SolarCity acquisition is due in the coming months. A trial related to the 2018 CEO award is scheduled for April, while another case involving the $420 going private transaction is scheduled for trial in May. At the same time, the SECis reportedly looking into Elon and Kimbal Musk for alleged insider trading charges. These legal actions could have widespread ramifications for Tesla, its executives, and board members, but to what degree is uncertain at this point.</p><p>As for Tesla shares, they remain in a very interesting place currently. Despite all the positive potential news for EV and solar lately, the stock has been hit with the overall market. Monday&#39;s close below $805 puts the stock well below the average street price target of $958. As the chart below shows, shares have recently lost the 200-day moving average (orange line). Without a rebound in the near term, that sets up the possibility of the dreaded death cross over the next few months, as the 50-day moving average (purple line) could cross below its longer term counterpart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b83ea0334f84eaaad7b891873d79b292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Chart With Moving Averages(Yahoo Finance)</p><p>In the end, Tesla may be approaching a key point in its history over the next couple of months. The Berlin and Austin factories are set to start contributing to the growth story, coming at a time where consumers are feeling the pain of higher gas prices thanks to the Russian war in Ukraine. Unfortunately for the company, the shift to EVs may face a stiff headwind if commodity prices continue to soar and make these vehicles much more expensive. While many eyes remain on the business itself, I will really be watching the courtroom as Tesla and Elon Musk face a number of major lawsuits. Investors are hoping the growth story can push this stock to new highs moving forward, but the overall market weakness is limiting upside currently.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla May Be Reaching Critical Point</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla May Be Reaching Critical Point\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-09 22:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157057946","content_text":"SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade Ukraine recently, electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has received a lot of attention. With the prices of oil and gasoline soaring, consumers and global governments are looking toward a future of renewable energy and less ICE vehicles. While the overall craziness around Tesla from years back seemed to have settled down, the future of the company could actually be reaching a critical point rather soon.Part of the bull case for last year was the opening of two new factories that would help with the company's next leg of growth. As we've seen with a number of past Tesla items, delays ensued, but things are finally progressing. The first deliveries from these factories should start in the coming months, although they aren't likely to make any meaningful contributions until much later this year. In terms of pure volume growth, the Berlin and Austin facilities are more important items for next year's delivery surge.Now that these factories are starting to produce vehicles, I'm curious to see how street analysts react. As I've detailed in previous articles, the street has been extremely conservative with regard to Tesla in recent quarters. As the table below shows, one analyst even sees Q4 revenues this year coming in below last year's Q4 total sales figure. Most Tesla bulls see at least an extra 125,000 deliveries in this year's Q4, so how is it possible that the company report lower revenue? These extremely low estimates continue to drag overall averages down, which helps Tesla report delivery, revenue, and earnings beats that don't truly reflect the reality here.Tesla Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha Estimates Page)As for the current quarter, total revenues are expected to be down a little sequentially, implying flat to slightly higher deliveries. That implies around 310,000 deliveries for Q1, a bit below my current expectation for 324,000. We got decent numbers out of China for January, and we're expected to get February numbers rather soon. Perhaps good data on that front will get the street average up a bit to a more realistic expectation.With gasoline prices soaring in recent weeks, the spotlight on electric vehicles has certainly increased. However, Tesla also faces a hit from the Russia situation as the country is a key nickel producer, and other commodity prices have also soared. Cobalt, copper, and lithium carbonate prices are on the rise as well, which could dent Tesla's margins in the coming quarters unless the company raises prices again. The consumers being hurt the most by rising energy prices can't just go out and buy EVs that start at $60,000, which will impact the ongoing shift to electric vehicles.Since Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, for instance, prices of copper have nearly doubled, while cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices have more than doubled. That's going to make it hard for Tesla to achieve that sub $40,000 price point, unless it wants to lose a bit of money. For those arguing about massive battery savings coming up, just remember that the Model 3 starts at nearly $45,000 currently, and that's a much smaller vehicle and one that has been in mass production for years. Tesla is currently estimated to have well over a million reservations for the Cybertruck, so it will be interesting to see how many orders are canceled if prices jump 10%, 25%, or more once the vehicle actually comes to market.Perhaps the biggest risk for Tesla currently doesn't actually involve everyday operations, as there are a number of ongoing high profile lawsuits involving the company and or Elon Musk. As the company's10-K filing details, a decision on the lawsuit against the SolarCity acquisition is due in the coming months. A trial related to the 2018 CEO award is scheduled for April, while another case involving the $420 going private transaction is scheduled for trial in May. At the same time, the SECis reportedly looking into Elon and Kimbal Musk for alleged insider trading charges. These legal actions could have widespread ramifications for Tesla, its executives, and board members, but to what degree is uncertain at this point.As for Tesla shares, they remain in a very interesting place currently. Despite all the positive potential news for EV and solar lately, the stock has been hit with the overall market. Monday's close below $805 puts the stock well below the average street price target of $958. As the chart below shows, shares have recently lost the 200-day moving average (orange line). Without a rebound in the near term, that sets up the possibility of the dreaded death cross over the next few months, as the 50-day moving average (purple line) could cross below its longer term counterpart.Tesla Chart With Moving Averages(Yahoo Finance)In the end, Tesla may be approaching a key point in its history over the next couple of months. The Berlin and Austin factories are set to start contributing to the growth story, coming at a time where consumers are feeling the pain of higher gas prices thanks to the Russian war in Ukraine. Unfortunately for the company, the shift to EVs may face a stiff headwind if commodity prices continue to soar and make these vehicles much more expensive. While many eyes remain on the business itself, I will really be watching the courtroom as Tesla and Elon Musk face a number of major lawsuits. Investors are hoping the growth story can push this stock to new highs moving forward, but the overall market weakness is limiting upside currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038115330,"gmtCreate":1646774420141,"gmtModify":1676534159576,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😂","listText":"😂","text":"😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038115330","repostId":"2217100884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2217100884","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646752884,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2217100884?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-08 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Sea Limited Stock a Buy Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2217100884","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The company's key business segment could be losing steam.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Digital conglomerate <b>Sea Limited</b> (NYSE:SE) was one of the hottest stocks of 2020 and 2021, soaring from less than $40 per share before the pandemic to more than $350 at its peak in late 2021. It&#39;s collapsed more than 70% from its highs to under $100 per share in just a few months, showing how the market can both giveth, and taketh away.</p><p>However, the market&#39;s cold reception toward Sea Limited may not be without merit. There was a significant area of concern with the company&#39;s fourth-quarter 2021 earnings results. I&#39;ll break down what could have the market spooked about Sea Limited and why the recent dip could be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors.</p><p>Sea Limited offers digital products and services in gaming, e-commerce, and fintech. According to App Annie, its gaming segment Garena created <i>Free Fire</i>, the world&#39;s most downloaded mobile game from 2019 to 2021. Shopee is Sea Limited&#39;s e-commerce marketplace, and Sea Money, its digital payments platform, integrates across the business.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78610350c01555d7fe292e0139b441f3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image Source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>A dark spot in an otherwise bright quarter</h2><p>Gaming, e-commerce, and fintech are all fast-growing industries, which has enabled Sea Limited to thrive. The company grew its revenue 106% year over year in Q4 2021 and 128% for the entire year. Sea Limited has averaged 119% annual revenue growth over the past three years, so it&#39;s continued its rapid growth.</p><p>However, management guided Garena for $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion in bookings for 2022. Bookings are essentially funds that have been purchased but not spent on the game platform, so they indicate the momentum of the gaming business. Garena&#39;s total 2021 bookings were $4.6 billion, so this is a massive decline that suggests the gaming business could be about to slow down dramatically.</p><p>Garena is Sea&#39;s &#34;money maker.&#34; It contributes all of its profits. Its total 2021 non-GAAP EBITDA from Garena was $2.77 billion, while the rest of the company posted losses, bringing companywide 2021 EBITDA to minus $593 million. Garena&#39;s profits enable the company to invest in growth, like expanding into new markets. It&#39;s reasonable that a weakness in the gaming business could threaten Sea&#39;s path to bottom-line profitability (positive net income), as well as its ability to fund growth.</p><h2>The stock has become attractive</h2><p>It&#39;s not that investors should dismiss these risks; they need to be monitored by shareholders over the coming quarters. However, some context could be important.</p><p>Management attributes the anticipated slowdown to be caused by reopening, where gamers don&#39;t have as much time to spend playing Freefire now that work, school, and social gatherings are slowly going back to normal. Freefire is also currently banned in India due to <b>Tencent</b>&#39;s stake in Sea Limited. It makes sense that these things might impact Garena, and active users still grew 7% year-over-year in Q4. It&#39;s something to watch for sure, but I&#39;m not sure it&#39;s an automatic reason to avoid the stock.</p><p>Meanwhile, Sea&#39;s stock is about as cheap from a price-to-sales ratio standpoint as at any point in its history as a public company. You can see below how the P/S ratio threatens to go below pre-COVID levels.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c4f53e10ddf322d0a2f2864ddec46ee\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SE PS Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><p>Is the company dealing with some bumps in the road? Of course, however, I would argue that the valuation compensates investors for it, versus when the stock traded at a P/S ratio of more than 24 just a few months ago.</p><h2>Flexibility and growth to drive long-term returns</h2><p>If you look beyond Garena&#39;s potential slowdown, the company is still performing at a high level. Sea&#39;s fintech business guided 155% revenue growth in 2022, while Shopee expects 75% growth.</p><p>Southeast Asia is a hotbed for digital growth; <b>Alphabet</b> estimated that the digital economy in the region could double in value to $335 billion by 2025 and potentially reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade.</p><p>Sea&#39;s growth outlook for Shopee and Sea Money shows how rapidly the business is growing; management recently launched new divisions such as Sea AI Lab for artificial intelligence applications and Sea Capital, a segment for strategic investments.</p><p>The company seems to have the ingredients to continue growing for years to come, even if the short-term include some hiccups along the way. Investors may need to have some patience, but the stock&#39;s increasingly attractive valuation could make it worth the wait.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Sea Limited Stock a Buy Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Sea Limited Stock a Buy Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-08 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/07/is-sea-limited-stock-a-buy-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Digital conglomerate Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) was one of the hottest stocks of 2020 and 2021, soaring from less than $40 per share before the pandemic to more than $350 at its peak in late 2021. It's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/07/is-sea-limited-stock-a-buy-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/07/is-sea-limited-stock-a-buy-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2217100884","content_text":"Digital conglomerate Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) was one of the hottest stocks of 2020 and 2021, soaring from less than $40 per share before the pandemic to more than $350 at its peak in late 2021. It's collapsed more than 70% from its highs to under $100 per share in just a few months, showing how the market can both giveth, and taketh away.However, the market's cold reception toward Sea Limited may not be without merit. There was a significant area of concern with the company's fourth-quarter 2021 earnings results. I'll break down what could have the market spooked about Sea Limited and why the recent dip could be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors.Sea Limited offers digital products and services in gaming, e-commerce, and fintech. According to App Annie, its gaming segment Garena created Free Fire, the world's most downloaded mobile game from 2019 to 2021. Shopee is Sea Limited's e-commerce marketplace, and Sea Money, its digital payments platform, integrates across the business.Image Source: Getty Images.A dark spot in an otherwise bright quarterGaming, e-commerce, and fintech are all fast-growing industries, which has enabled Sea Limited to thrive. The company grew its revenue 106% year over year in Q4 2021 and 128% for the entire year. Sea Limited has averaged 119% annual revenue growth over the past three years, so it's continued its rapid growth.However, management guided Garena for $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion in bookings for 2022. Bookings are essentially funds that have been purchased but not spent on the game platform, so they indicate the momentum of the gaming business. Garena's total 2021 bookings were $4.6 billion, so this is a massive decline that suggests the gaming business could be about to slow down dramatically.Garena is Sea's \"money maker.\" It contributes all of its profits. Its total 2021 non-GAAP EBITDA from Garena was $2.77 billion, while the rest of the company posted losses, bringing companywide 2021 EBITDA to minus $593 million. Garena's profits enable the company to invest in growth, like expanding into new markets. It's reasonable that a weakness in the gaming business could threaten Sea's path to bottom-line profitability (positive net income), as well as its ability to fund growth.The stock has become attractiveIt's not that investors should dismiss these risks; they need to be monitored by shareholders over the coming quarters. However, some context could be important.Management attributes the anticipated slowdown to be caused by reopening, where gamers don't have as much time to spend playing Freefire now that work, school, and social gatherings are slowly going back to normal. Freefire is also currently banned in India due to Tencent's stake in Sea Limited. It makes sense that these things might impact Garena, and active users still grew 7% year-over-year in Q4. It's something to watch for sure, but I'm not sure it's an automatic reason to avoid the stock.Meanwhile, Sea's stock is about as cheap from a price-to-sales ratio standpoint as at any point in its history as a public company. You can see below how the P/S ratio threatens to go below pre-COVID levels.SE PS Ratio data by YChartsIs the company dealing with some bumps in the road? Of course, however, I would argue that the valuation compensates investors for it, versus when the stock traded at a P/S ratio of more than 24 just a few months ago.Flexibility and growth to drive long-term returnsIf you look beyond Garena's potential slowdown, the company is still performing at a high level. Sea's fintech business guided 155% revenue growth in 2022, while Shopee expects 75% growth.Southeast Asia is a hotbed for digital growth; Alphabet estimated that the digital economy in the region could double in value to $335 billion by 2025 and potentially reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade.Sea's growth outlook for Shopee and Sea Money shows how rapidly the business is growing; management recently launched new divisions such as Sea AI Lab for artificial intelligence applications and Sea Capital, a segment for strategic investments.The company seems to have the ingredients to continue growing for years to come, even if the short-term include some hiccups along the way. Investors may need to have some patience, but the stock's increasingly attractive valuation could make it worth the wait.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9027977936,"gmtCreate":1653964509325,"gmtModify":1676535370637,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027977936","repostId":"2239175639","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013901897,"gmtCreate":1648671570732,"gmtModify":1676534373806,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>Yeah!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>Yeah!","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$Yeah!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25efdaa3432e4fb2d805e08fb881bbbb","width":"1125","height":"3063"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013901897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038115330,"gmtCreate":1646774420141,"gmtModify":1676534159576,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😂","listText":"😂","text":"😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038115330","repostId":"2217100884","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914926454,"gmtCreate":1665166766178,"gmtModify":1676537566855,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914926454","repostId":"2273803113","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024153638,"gmtCreate":1653828557324,"gmtModify":1676535347600,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024153638","repostId":"2238988779","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238988779","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1653740753,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238988779?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-28 20:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the Dow Finally Bounced, and What It Will Take to Convince Investors It's for Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238988779","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"A little pre-summer cheer finally filtered its way into the stock market the week before Memorial Da","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>A little pre-summer cheer finally filtered its way into the stock market the week before Memorial Day, but it will likely take more than the Dow Jones Industrial Average&#39;s first winning week since late March to convince rattled investors that the pain is in the past.</p><p>What happened? Real, or inflation-adjusted, interest rates fell over the past week, corporate credit spreads -- the yield premium over U.S. Treasurys demanded by investors to buy bonds issued by companies -- tightened, and investor expectations for future Federal Reserve rate increases moderated, noted Mahmood Noorani, chief executive of research firm Quant Insight, in an interview (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7521bdd8c826278369d3b7ba280e9bac\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>That gave some breathing room for a bounce. Quant Insight&#39;s model showed the S&amp;P 500 had sunk below fair value but is now right in line with the metric.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500  had narrowly averted a close in bear-market territory on May 19 after hitting a session low more than 20% below its Jan. 3 record close. It then rose 6.6% over the past week, ending Friday 13.3% below its early January peak as it snapped a streak of seven straight weekly declines.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite , which remains solidly in bear-market territory, also broke a run of seven weekly falls, rising 6.8%. The Dow&#39;s  matching 6.8% rise marked the end of an eight-week run of losing weeks, its longest since 1932.</p><p>Kevin Dempter, an analyst at Renaissance Macro Research, also pointed to a handful of positive factors, including a significant pullback by the U.S. dollar, deeply oversold technical conditions and extremely bearish sentiment, while some stocks, such as that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia Corp.</a>, managed to reverse to the upside despite bad news.</p><p>Neither Noorani nor Dempter were prepared to call a market bottom, however. And there was no shortage of outright bearish expectations. Michael Burry, the founder of Scion Asset Management, rose to fame after anticipating the collapse of the U.S. housing market as chronicled in the Michael Lewis book &#34;The Big Short,&#34; in a since-deleted tweet implied parallels with the 2008 market collapse.</p><p>In a fresh Friday tweet, he mused about the prospects of a consumer-led recession:</p><p>That echoes the fears that were raised earlier in May as retailers Target <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">$(TGT)$</a> and Walmart <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$(WMT)$</a> reported disappointing earnings, triggering a deepening of the stock-market selloff on worries that inflation pressures were beginning to hit corporate bottom lines.</p><p>A further pullback in real yields could allow stocks to rise further in the near term, Noorani said, but he argued that it&#39;s unlikely yields have peaked.</p><p>After all, while data, including Friday&#39;s reading of the core personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation indicator, shows inflation is slowing, the job of getting price pressures back under control is far from done, he argued.</p><p>That leaves uncertainty about how high the federal funds rate, currently at 0.75% to 1%, will ultimately go. Market pricing points to a so-called terminal rate between 2.5% and 3%, but anything that hints it will be higher than that will rattle investors, he said.</p><p>The single most important driver for yields &#34;is going to be Fed policy,&#34; he said, observing that central bankers &#34;have been spooked by inflation at these historically high numbers.&#34; Even if it&#39;s painful for the real economy, &#34;they have to hit the brakes pretty hard and get those numbers lower.&#34;</p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 hasn&#39;t technically confirmed that it&#39;s in a bear market, many market watchers view that as a mere formality, observing that stocks have been exhibiting bearlike behavior for much of the 2022 selloff.</p><p>Dempter, in a Friday note, played down the consumer discretionary sector&#39;s sharp outperformance of the rest of the market in the previous session, acknowledging that, historically, discretionary sees sharp improvement in relative performance about a month before growth troughs. The move was likely an oversold bounce rather than a bottom, he argued, explaining that RenMac would be more optimistic &#34;if growth were weaker, and inflation had peaked.&#34;</p><p>&#34;History suggests that both growth and inflation need to weaken further before a bottom occurs,&#34; he said, noting that the energy sector&#39;s continued outperformance of healthcare suggests that inflation has yet to peak.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;ll be watching next week&#39;s ISM (manufacturing index) number, as a weak reading may shift the market-cycle clock closer to a more favorable zone for a bottom,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Dow Finally Bounced, and What It Will Take to Convince Investors It's for Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Dow Finally Bounced, and What It Will Take to Convince Investors It's for Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-28 20:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>A little pre-summer cheer finally filtered its way into the stock market the week before Memorial Day, but it will likely take more than the Dow Jones Industrial Average&#39;s first winning week since late March to convince rattled investors that the pain is in the past.</p><p>What happened? Real, or inflation-adjusted, interest rates fell over the past week, corporate credit spreads -- the yield premium over U.S. Treasurys demanded by investors to buy bonds issued by companies -- tightened, and investor expectations for future Federal Reserve rate increases moderated, noted Mahmood Noorani, chief executive of research firm Quant Insight, in an interview (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7521bdd8c826278369d3b7ba280e9bac\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>That gave some breathing room for a bounce. Quant Insight&#39;s model showed the S&amp;P 500 had sunk below fair value but is now right in line with the metric.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500  had narrowly averted a close in bear-market territory on May 19 after hitting a session low more than 20% below its Jan. 3 record close. It then rose 6.6% over the past week, ending Friday 13.3% below its early January peak as it snapped a streak of seven straight weekly declines.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite , which remains solidly in bear-market territory, also broke a run of seven weekly falls, rising 6.8%. The Dow&#39;s  matching 6.8% rise marked the end of an eight-week run of losing weeks, its longest since 1932.</p><p>Kevin Dempter, an analyst at Renaissance Macro Research, also pointed to a handful of positive factors, including a significant pullback by the U.S. dollar, deeply oversold technical conditions and extremely bearish sentiment, while some stocks, such as that of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia Corp.</a>, managed to reverse to the upside despite bad news.</p><p>Neither Noorani nor Dempter were prepared to call a market bottom, however. And there was no shortage of outright bearish expectations. Michael Burry, the founder of Scion Asset Management, rose to fame after anticipating the collapse of the U.S. housing market as chronicled in the Michael Lewis book &#34;The Big Short,&#34; in a since-deleted tweet implied parallels with the 2008 market collapse.</p><p>In a fresh Friday tweet, he mused about the prospects of a consumer-led recession:</p><p>That echoes the fears that were raised earlier in May as retailers Target <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">$(TGT)$</a> and Walmart <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$(WMT)$</a> reported disappointing earnings, triggering a deepening of the stock-market selloff on worries that inflation pressures were beginning to hit corporate bottom lines.</p><p>A further pullback in real yields could allow stocks to rise further in the near term, Noorani said, but he argued that it&#39;s unlikely yields have peaked.</p><p>After all, while data, including Friday&#39;s reading of the core personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed&#39;s preferred inflation indicator, shows inflation is slowing, the job of getting price pressures back under control is far from done, he argued.</p><p>That leaves uncertainty about how high the federal funds rate, currently at 0.75% to 1%, will ultimately go. Market pricing points to a so-called terminal rate between 2.5% and 3%, but anything that hints it will be higher than that will rattle investors, he said.</p><p>The single most important driver for yields &#34;is going to be Fed policy,&#34; he said, observing that central bankers &#34;have been spooked by inflation at these historically high numbers.&#34; Even if it&#39;s painful for the real economy, &#34;they have to hit the brakes pretty hard and get those numbers lower.&#34;</p><p>While the S&amp;P 500 hasn&#39;t technically confirmed that it&#39;s in a bear market, many market watchers view that as a mere formality, observing that stocks have been exhibiting bearlike behavior for much of the 2022 selloff.</p><p>Dempter, in a Friday note, played down the consumer discretionary sector&#39;s sharp outperformance of the rest of the market in the previous session, acknowledging that, historically, discretionary sees sharp improvement in relative performance about a month before growth troughs. The move was likely an oversold bounce rather than a bottom, he argued, explaining that RenMac would be more optimistic &#34;if growth were weaker, and inflation had peaked.&#34;</p><p>&#34;History suggests that both growth and inflation need to weaken further before a bottom occurs,&#34; he said, noting that the energy sector&#39;s continued outperformance of healthcare suggests that inflation has yet to peak.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;ll be watching next week&#39;s ISM (manufacturing index) number, as a weak reading may shift the market-cycle clock closer to a more favorable zone for a bottom,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238988779","content_text":"A little pre-summer cheer finally filtered its way into the stock market the week before Memorial Day, but it will likely take more than the Dow Jones Industrial Average's first winning week since late March to convince rattled investors that the pain is in the past.What happened? Real, or inflation-adjusted, interest rates fell over the past week, corporate credit spreads -- the yield premium over U.S. Treasurys demanded by investors to buy bonds issued by companies -- tightened, and investor expectations for future Federal Reserve rate increases moderated, noted Mahmood Noorani, chief executive of research firm Quant Insight, in an interview (see chart below).That gave some breathing room for a bounce. Quant Insight's model showed the S&P 500 had sunk below fair value but is now right in line with the metric.The S&P 500  had narrowly averted a close in bear-market territory on May 19 after hitting a session low more than 20% below its Jan. 3 record close. It then rose 6.6% over the past week, ending Friday 13.3% below its early January peak as it snapped a streak of seven straight weekly declines.The Nasdaq Composite , which remains solidly in bear-market territory, also broke a run of seven weekly falls, rising 6.8%. The Dow's  matching 6.8% rise marked the end of an eight-week run of losing weeks, its longest since 1932.Kevin Dempter, an analyst at Renaissance Macro Research, also pointed to a handful of positive factors, including a significant pullback by the U.S. dollar, deeply oversold technical conditions and extremely bearish sentiment, while some stocks, such as that of Nvidia Corp., managed to reverse to the upside despite bad news.Neither Noorani nor Dempter were prepared to call a market bottom, however. And there was no shortage of outright bearish expectations. Michael Burry, the founder of Scion Asset Management, rose to fame after anticipating the collapse of the U.S. housing market as chronicled in the Michael Lewis book \"The Big Short,\" in a since-deleted tweet implied parallels with the 2008 market collapse.In a fresh Friday tweet, he mused about the prospects of a consumer-led recession:That echoes the fears that were raised earlier in May as retailers Target $(TGT)$ and Walmart $(WMT)$ reported disappointing earnings, triggering a deepening of the stock-market selloff on worries that inflation pressures were beginning to hit corporate bottom lines.A further pullback in real yields could allow stocks to rise further in the near term, Noorani said, but he argued that it's unlikely yields have peaked.After all, while data, including Friday's reading of the core personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, shows inflation is slowing, the job of getting price pressures back under control is far from done, he argued.That leaves uncertainty about how high the federal funds rate, currently at 0.75% to 1%, will ultimately go. Market pricing points to a so-called terminal rate between 2.5% and 3%, but anything that hints it will be higher than that will rattle investors, he said.The single most important driver for yields \"is going to be Fed policy,\" he said, observing that central bankers \"have been spooked by inflation at these historically high numbers.\" Even if it's painful for the real economy, \"they have to hit the brakes pretty hard and get those numbers lower.\"While the S&P 500 hasn't technically confirmed that it's in a bear market, many market watchers view that as a mere formality, observing that stocks have been exhibiting bearlike behavior for much of the 2022 selloff.Dempter, in a Friday note, played down the consumer discretionary sector's sharp outperformance of the rest of the market in the previous session, acknowledging that, historically, discretionary sees sharp improvement in relative performance about a month before growth troughs. The move was likely an oversold bounce rather than a bottom, he argued, explaining that RenMac would be more optimistic \"if growth were weaker, and inflation had peaked.\"\"History suggests that both growth and inflation need to weaken further before a bottom occurs,\" he said, noting that the energy sector's continued outperformance of healthcare suggests that inflation has yet to peak.\"We'll be watching next week's ISM (manufacturing index) number, as a weak reading may shift the market-cycle clock closer to a more favorable zone for a bottom,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038251559,"gmtCreate":1646847416738,"gmtModify":1676534169302,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038251559","repostId":"1157057946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157057946","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646837534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157057946?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-09 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla May Be Reaching Critical Point","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157057946","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade U","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Berlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.</li><li>Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.</li><li>Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.</li></ul><p>With Russia deciding to invade Ukraine recently, electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has received a lot of attention. With the prices of oil and gasoline soaring, consumers and global governments are looking toward a future of renewable energy and less ICE vehicles. While the overall craziness around Tesla from years back seemed to have settled down, the future of the company could actually be reaching a critical point rather soon.</p><p>Part of the bull case for last year was the opening of two new factories that would help with the company&#39;s next leg of growth. As we&#39;ve seen with a number of past Tesla items, delays ensued, but things are finally progressing. The first deliveries from these factories should start in the coming months, although they aren&#39;t likely to make any meaningful contributions until much later this year. In terms of pure volume growth, the Berlin and Austin facilities are more important items for next year&#39;s delivery surge.</p><p>Now that these factories are starting to produce vehicles, I&#39;m curious to see how street analysts react. As I&#39;ve detailed in previous articles, the street has been extremely conservative with regard to Tesla in recent quarters. As the table below shows, one analyst even sees Q4 revenues this year coming in below last year&#39;s Q4 total sales figure. Most Tesla bulls see at least an extra 125,000 deliveries in this year&#39;s Q4, so how is it possible that the company report lower revenue? These extremely low estimates continue to drag overall averages down, which helps Tesla report delivery, revenue, and earnings beats that don&#39;t truly reflect the reality here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a3c38eb92e463dd471485692153ab34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"111\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha Estimates Page)</p><p>As for the current quarter, total revenues are expected to be down a little sequentially, implying flat to slightly higher deliveries. That implies around 310,000 deliveries for Q1, a bit below my current expectation for 324,000. We got decent numbers out of China for January, and we&#39;re expected to get February numbers rather soon. Perhaps good data on that front will get the street average up a bit to a more realistic expectation.</p><p>With gasoline prices soaring in recent weeks, the spotlight on electric vehicles has certainly increased. However, Tesla also faces a hit from the Russia situation as the country is a key nickel producer, and other commodity prices have also soared. Cobalt, copper, and lithium carbonate prices are on the rise as well, which could dent Tesla&#39;s margins in the coming quarters unless the company raises prices again. The consumers being hurt the most by rising energy prices can&#39;t just go out and buy EVs that start at $60,000, which will impact the ongoing shift to electric vehicles.</p><p>Since Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, for instance, prices of copper have nearly doubled, while cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices have more than doubled. That&#39;s going to make it hard for Tesla to achieve that sub $40,000 price point, unless it wants to lose a bit of money. For those arguing about massive battery savings coming up, just remember that the Model 3 starts at nearly $45,000 currently, and that&#39;s a much smaller vehicle and one that has been in mass production for years. Tesla is currently estimated to have well over a million reservations for the Cybertruck, so it will be interesting to see how many orders are canceled if prices jump 10%, 25%, or more once the vehicle actually comes to market.</p><p>Perhaps the biggest risk for Tesla currently doesn&#39;t actually involve everyday operations, as there are a number of ongoing high profile lawsuits involving the company and or Elon Musk. As the company&#39;s10-K filing details, a decision on the lawsuit against the SolarCity acquisition is due in the coming months. A trial related to the 2018 CEO award is scheduled for April, while another case involving the $420 going private transaction is scheduled for trial in May. At the same time, the SECis reportedly looking into Elon and Kimbal Musk for alleged insider trading charges. These legal actions could have widespread ramifications for Tesla, its executives, and board members, but to what degree is uncertain at this point.</p><p>As for Tesla shares, they remain in a very interesting place currently. Despite all the positive potential news for EV and solar lately, the stock has been hit with the overall market. Monday&#39;s close below $805 puts the stock well below the average street price target of $958. As the chart below shows, shares have recently lost the 200-day moving average (orange line). Without a rebound in the near term, that sets up the possibility of the dreaded death cross over the next few months, as the 50-day moving average (purple line) could cross below its longer term counterpart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b83ea0334f84eaaad7b891873d79b292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Chart With Moving Averages(Yahoo Finance)</p><p>In the end, Tesla may be approaching a key point in its history over the next couple of months. The Berlin and Austin factories are set to start contributing to the growth story, coming at a time where consumers are feeling the pain of higher gas prices thanks to the Russian war in Ukraine. Unfortunately for the company, the shift to EVs may face a stiff headwind if commodity prices continue to soar and make these vehicles much more expensive. While many eyes remain on the business itself, I will really be watching the courtroom as Tesla and Elon Musk face a number of major lawsuits. Investors are hoping the growth story can push this stock to new highs moving forward, but the overall market weakness is limiting upside currently.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla May Be Reaching Critical Point</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla May Be Reaching Critical Point\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-09 22:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493826-tesla-may-be-reaching-critical-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157057946","content_text":"SummaryBerlin, Austin factories likely to start contributing in Q2.Materials inflation will impact the EV demand picture.Elon Musk and Tesla face numerous legal issues.With Russia deciding to invade Ukraine recently, electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) has received a lot of attention. With the prices of oil and gasoline soaring, consumers and global governments are looking toward a future of renewable energy and less ICE vehicles. While the overall craziness around Tesla from years back seemed to have settled down, the future of the company could actually be reaching a critical point rather soon.Part of the bull case for last year was the opening of two new factories that would help with the company's next leg of growth. As we've seen with a number of past Tesla items, delays ensued, but things are finally progressing. The first deliveries from these factories should start in the coming months, although they aren't likely to make any meaningful contributions until much later this year. In terms of pure volume growth, the Berlin and Austin facilities are more important items for next year's delivery surge.Now that these factories are starting to produce vehicles, I'm curious to see how street analysts react. As I've detailed in previous articles, the street has been extremely conservative with regard to Tesla in recent quarters. As the table below shows, one analyst even sees Q4 revenues this year coming in below last year's Q4 total sales figure. Most Tesla bulls see at least an extra 125,000 deliveries in this year's Q4, so how is it possible that the company report lower revenue? These extremely low estimates continue to drag overall averages down, which helps Tesla report delivery, revenue, and earnings beats that don't truly reflect the reality here.Tesla Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha Estimates Page)As for the current quarter, total revenues are expected to be down a little sequentially, implying flat to slightly higher deliveries. That implies around 310,000 deliveries for Q1, a bit below my current expectation for 324,000. We got decent numbers out of China for January, and we're expected to get February numbers rather soon. Perhaps good data on that front will get the street average up a bit to a more realistic expectation.With gasoline prices soaring in recent weeks, the spotlight on electric vehicles has certainly increased. However, Tesla also faces a hit from the Russia situation as the country is a key nickel producer, and other commodity prices have also soared. Cobalt, copper, and lithium carbonate prices are on the rise as well, which could dent Tesla's margins in the coming quarters unless the company raises prices again. The consumers being hurt the most by rising energy prices can't just go out and buy EVs that start at $60,000, which will impact the ongoing shift to electric vehicles.Since Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, for instance, prices of copper have nearly doubled, while cobalt, nickel, and lithium prices have more than doubled. That's going to make it hard for Tesla to achieve that sub $40,000 price point, unless it wants to lose a bit of money. For those arguing about massive battery savings coming up, just remember that the Model 3 starts at nearly $45,000 currently, and that's a much smaller vehicle and one that has been in mass production for years. Tesla is currently estimated to have well over a million reservations for the Cybertruck, so it will be interesting to see how many orders are canceled if prices jump 10%, 25%, or more once the vehicle actually comes to market.Perhaps the biggest risk for Tesla currently doesn't actually involve everyday operations, as there are a number of ongoing high profile lawsuits involving the company and or Elon Musk. As the company's10-K filing details, a decision on the lawsuit against the SolarCity acquisition is due in the coming months. A trial related to the 2018 CEO award is scheduled for April, while another case involving the $420 going private transaction is scheduled for trial in May. At the same time, the SECis reportedly looking into Elon and Kimbal Musk for alleged insider trading charges. These legal actions could have widespread ramifications for Tesla, its executives, and board members, but to what degree is uncertain at this point.As for Tesla shares, they remain in a very interesting place currently. Despite all the positive potential news for EV and solar lately, the stock has been hit with the overall market. Monday's close below $805 puts the stock well below the average street price target of $958. As the chart below shows, shares have recently lost the 200-day moving average (orange line). Without a rebound in the near term, that sets up the possibility of the dreaded death cross over the next few months, as the 50-day moving average (purple line) could cross below its longer term counterpart.Tesla Chart With Moving Averages(Yahoo Finance)In the end, Tesla may be approaching a key point in its history over the next couple of months. The Berlin and Austin factories are set to start contributing to the growth story, coming at a time where consumers are feeling the pain of higher gas prices thanks to the Russian war in Ukraine. Unfortunately for the company, the shift to EVs may face a stiff headwind if commodity prices continue to soar and make these vehicles much more expensive. While many eyes remain on the business itself, I will really be watching the courtroom as Tesla and Elon Musk face a number of major lawsuits. Investors are hoping the growth story can push this stock to new highs moving forward, but the overall market weakness is limiting upside currently.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":211044285370392,"gmtCreate":1692549361529,"gmtModify":1692549364859,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/211044285370392","repostId":"210826739769448","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":210826739769448,"gmtCreate":1692496064098,"gmtModify":1692499735125,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572212908677301","authorIdStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"Unveiling BlackRock's Strategic Move on Palo Alto Networks","htmlText":"BlackRock, a global titan in asset management with a colossal portfolio exceeding $10 trillion, holds sway over the financial realm like few others. Under the stewardship of its renowned CEO, Larry Fink, BlackRock's decisions reverberate across economies and markets, making it a pivotal force in the investment landscape. The recent surge in its stake in <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PANW\">$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$&nbsp;</a>, a leader in the cybersecurity domain, is a testament to BlackRock's foresight and the strategic importance it places on navigating the ever-evolving technology sector. Leading the charge in the cybersecurity landscape is Palo Alto Networks, a company with a resounding mission to&nbsp;protect&nbsp;the digital realm against escalating cyber threats. Born in 2005, Pal","listText":"BlackRock, a global titan in asset management with a colossal portfolio exceeding $10 trillion, holds sway over the financial realm like few others. Under the stewardship of its renowned CEO, Larry Fink, BlackRock's decisions reverberate across economies and markets, making it a pivotal force in the investment landscape. The recent surge in its stake in <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PANW\">$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$&nbsp;</a>, a leader in the cybersecurity domain, is a testament to BlackRock's foresight and the strategic importance it places on navigating the ever-evolving technology sector. Leading the charge in the cybersecurity landscape is Palo Alto Networks, a company with a resounding mission to&nbsp;protect&nbsp;the digital realm against escalating cyber threats. Born in 2005, Pal","text":"BlackRock, a global titan in asset management with a colossal portfolio exceeding $10 trillion, holds sway over the financial realm like few others. Under the stewardship of its renowned CEO, Larry Fink, BlackRock's decisions reverberate across economies and markets, making it a pivotal force in the investment landscape. The recent surge in its stake in $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ , a leader in the cybersecurity domain, is a testament to BlackRock's foresight and the strategic importance it places on navigating the ever-evolving technology sector. Leading the charge in the cybersecurity landscape is Palo Alto Networks, a company with a resounding mission to protect the digital realm against escalating cyber threats. Born in 2005, Pal","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85f32fb25b508dc9a5a2992f7870e97c","width":"1024","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d4c7586ca4496c3c83e929d07b21f55f","width":"1024","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15513d46863e6062920f0b14b51ff5ce","width":"1515","height":"1317"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210826739769448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":211044931666080,"gmtCreate":1692549348629,"gmtModify":1692549351680,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/211044931666080","repostId":"210336806436928","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":210336806436928,"gmtCreate":1692376538729,"gmtModify":1692376656525,"author":{"id":"3570103090255456","authorId":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorIdStr":"3570103090255456"},"themes":[],"title":"Don't Invest In Chinese Stocks, US Is \"Better\"?","htmlText":"I think it is really risky to invest in Chinese stocks in the current climate. There I said it! When I mention “Chinese stocks”, I refer to stocks from both China and Hong Kong exchanges. Both China and Hong Kong economies are in a doldrum to put it mildly. This alone makes investment risky, when any economy is faltering due to many reasons. If you have been keeping up with the news coming out from China, you will concur too. (1) Property Market Crisis. China property market is facing a major crisis. Many developers (state backed and private) are roiling the nation’s dollar-bond market and adding to concerns about the health of China, the world’s second-largest economy. This includes Country Garden (latest developer) seeking delay payment (for another 3 years) on a private onshore bond for","listText":"I think it is really risky to invest in Chinese stocks in the current climate. There I said it! When I mention “Chinese stocks”, I refer to stocks from both China and Hong Kong exchanges. Both China and Hong Kong economies are in a doldrum to put it mildly. This alone makes investment risky, when any economy is faltering due to many reasons. If you have been keeping up with the news coming out from China, you will concur too. (1) Property Market Crisis. China property market is facing a major crisis. Many developers (state backed and private) are roiling the nation’s dollar-bond market and adding to concerns about the health of China, the world’s second-largest economy. This includes Country Garden (latest developer) seeking delay payment (for another 3 years) on a private onshore bond for","text":"I think it is really risky to invest in Chinese stocks in the current climate. There I said it! When I mention “Chinese stocks”, I refer to stocks from both China and Hong Kong exchanges. Both China and Hong Kong economies are in a doldrum to put it mildly. This alone makes investment risky, when any economy is faltering due to many reasons. If you have been keeping up with the news coming out from China, you will concur too. (1) Property Market Crisis. China property market is facing a major crisis. Many developers (state backed and private) are roiling the nation’s dollar-bond market and adding to concerns about the health of China, the world’s second-largest economy. This includes Country Garden (latest developer) seeking delay payment (for another 3 years) on a private onshore bond for","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f4ad72e80ca9e9bc6e911084d7e95b2a","width":"1796","height":"308"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6388262c0912af43ef1f1228baec6bd6","width":"1252","height":"211"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/65a02fc1fa73dde4f355891b4577d428","width":"808","height":"139"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210336806436928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":15,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":211044886786208,"gmtCreate":1692549337672,"gmtModify":1692549341048,"author":{"id":"4105615005463330","authorId":"4105615005463330","name":"Nauzi08","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/dab2bc3ac2dffde3204f51df7bc3d661","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105615005463330","authorIdStr":"4105615005463330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/211044886786208","repostId":"210657746620640","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":210657746620640,"gmtCreate":1692454917290,"gmtModify":1692455092248,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572212908677301","authorIdStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"🚨 VinFast's Volatile Debut Signals Dangers Amidst Excitement","htmlText":"The electric vehicle (EV) industry is undeniably one of the most promising sectors in today's market, with companies racing to secure their place in the future of transportation. Amidst this fervor, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VFS\">$VinFast Auto(VFS)$</a>, a Vietnamese electric automaker, made a grand entrance onto the Nasdaq, sending shockwaves through the financial world. However, as the dust settles, concerns emerge about the company's rapid rise and the potential dangers that lie beneath. VinFast began trading on the Nasdaq Tuesday. VinFast's debut was nothing short of spectacular. The company surged an astounding 255% on a trading day, capturing attention and amassing a market capitalization that momentarily surpassed established giants like <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GM\">$</a>","listText":"The electric vehicle (EV) industry is undeniably one of the most promising sectors in today's market, with companies racing to secure their place in the future of transportation. Amidst this fervor, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VFS\">$VinFast Auto(VFS)$</a>, a Vietnamese electric automaker, made a grand entrance onto the Nasdaq, sending shockwaves through the financial world. However, as the dust settles, concerns emerge about the company's rapid rise and the potential dangers that lie beneath. VinFast began trading on the Nasdaq Tuesday. VinFast's debut was nothing short of spectacular. The company surged an astounding 255% on a trading day, capturing attention and amassing a market capitalization that momentarily surpassed established giants like <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GM\">$</a>","text":"The electric vehicle (EV) industry is undeniably one of the most promising sectors in today's market, with companies racing to secure their place in the future of transportation. Amidst this fervor, $VinFast Auto(VFS)$, a Vietnamese electric automaker, made a grand entrance onto the Nasdaq, sending shockwaves through the financial world. However, as the dust settles, concerns emerge about the company's rapid rise and the potential dangers that lie beneath. VinFast began trading on the Nasdaq Tuesday. VinFast's debut was nothing short of spectacular. The company surged an astounding 255% on a trading day, capturing attention and amassing a market capitalization that momentarily surpassed established giants like $","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b6c65dfc9e1f0aa64750864e7c13d97","width":"591","height":"440"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210657746620640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}