Mo Pereirra personal page - To The Moon

Mo Pereirra

Mo Pereirra

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2022-11-10

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

2022-11-01

Finally a win

2022-10-14

2022-10-14

Great stuff

@PortfolioHub:4 Top Investing Principles To Guide Your Decisions As A Beginner

2022-10-05

$Temasek Holdings(BK4535)$

2022-09-12

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$View on Grab Holdings(GRAB)BullishBearish

2022-08-24

$NUTRYFARM INTERNATIONAL LTD(AZT.SI)$

2022-08-05

Still a noob

2022-08-05

$NETLINK NBN TRUST(CJLU.SI)$[Speechless]

2022-08-05

Nice

Bloomberg’s Bitcoin Report Suggests a Coming Shift in Behavior for BTC Prices

2022-08-05

Ok

The SPY's Risk-Premium Spells Danger

2022-08-05

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$View on Tesla Motors(TSLA)BullishBearish

2022-08-04

Very new to these. Anyone care to share a link or pointers to wbat to look for

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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into stocks or other financial instruments?Photo bySortteronUnsplashThe stock market has always fascinated investors. Whether they want to invest their savings for retirement or simply earn some extra income, the stock market offers them a variety of options.There are four basic principles that every investor should follow before entering the stock market. It’s important to keep in mind and include diversification, risk management, value investing and time horizon.What is investing?Investing is buying securities like stocks and bonds. You buy shares of companies you believe will do well financially. When those companies perform well, you make money. When they don’t, you lose money.Buying individual shares can be is time consuming and inv","listText":"What should I look out for before investing my money into stocks or other financial instruments?Photo bySortteronUnsplashThe stock market has always fascinated investors. Whether they want to invest their savings for retirement or simply earn some extra income, the stock market offers them a variety of options.There are four basic principles that every investor should follow before entering the stock market. It’s important to keep in mind and include diversification, risk management, value investing and time horizon.What is investing?Investing is buying securities like stocks and bonds. You buy shares of companies you believe will do well financially. When those companies perform well, you make money. When they don’t, you lose money.Buying individual shares can be is time consuming and inv","text":"What should I look out for before investing my money into stocks or other financial instruments?Photo bySortteronUnsplashThe stock market has always fascinated investors. 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When they don’t, you lose money.Buying individual shares can be is time consuming and inv","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f050fa67e27e6c4206f2973b0279b26","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917420609","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915054759,"gmtCreate":1664930360472,"gmtModify":1676537530290,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo 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TRUST(CJLU.SI)$[Speechless]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb21e287a55bd1e1faa78299332ef899","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902895569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902892059,"gmtCreate":1659665596673,"gmtModify":1705299812799,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902892059","repostId":"1108171991","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108171991","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659665087,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108171991?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-05 10:04","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Bloomberg’s Bitcoin Report Suggests a Coming Shift in Behavior for BTC Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108171991","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Bloomberg Intelligence has released a new report on Bitcoin(BTC-USD).The report suggests that Bitcoi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Bloomberg Intelligence has released a new report on <b>Bitcoin</b>(<b><u>BTC-USD</u></b>).</li><li>The report suggests that Bitcoin could shed its volatile nature in the wake of the crypto crash.</li><li>It predicts the coin will behave more like U.S. Treasury bonds.</li></ul><p><b>Bitcoin</b>(<b><u>BTC-USD</u></b>) prices are a hugely-influential force on the entire crypto market. This is a major detriment to the market’s potential for growth; given Bitcoin’s whiplash ups and downs — especially in the last year — investors loathe trusting the asset as a safe vessel for investing. But what if that jarring price momentum slowed down drastically? Bloomberg Intelligence is releasing a report that suggests exactly that possibility.</p><p>With a market capitalization of $440 billion, Bitcoin is an absolutely massive project. This value places the coin among even the largest traditional stocks in the world. Moreover, it makes Bitcoin worth nearly half of the entire crypto market, valued at just over $1 trillion. This size makes Bitcoin an authoritarian force within the crypto industry; the market doesn’t trend up without Bitcoin trending up, and it doesn’t trend down without Bitcoin trending down. It’s the pacesetter for all crypto price action.</p><p>This has its benefits, but also its drawbacks. Some investors enjoy knowing that their entire portfolio will shoot up if Bitcoin catches a growth spurt. However, Bitcoin prices are typically a purely speculative affair. Developers aren’t working to turn Bitcoin into a decentralized application (dApp) network a la <b>Ethereum</b>(<b><u>ETH-USD</u></b>). And while upgrades like Taproothelp speed up transactions, most people are only buying the asset to load it into a cold wallet, rather than trade it.</p><p>With the recent crypto crash knocking the entire industry down several pegs, investors got to see this speculative model rapidly sour. In barely over a month, the coin lost half of its value, accelerating a steady decline that had been occurring since January. But, could this tumble bring an end to the coin’s jolty nature? A new report from Bloomberg analysts believes so.</p><p><b>Bitcoin Price Drop Could Influence Prices Going Forward</b></p><p>Bitcoin price movement is unlike anything investors have seen on the traditional stock market, that’s for sure. But what if the asset were to cool down from its volatility and settle into a more stable pattern of growth and contraction? According to a report from Bloomberg Intelligence, the stage could be set for just that.</p><p>The research team at <i>Bloomberg</i>hasreleased a new report on Bitcoin, and they posit that under the right conditions, Bitcoin could very well settle into behavior similar to commodities like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds.</p><p>The report likens Bitcoin’s price movement amid the crash to the effects of Federal Reserve policies on Treasury bond values. Both of these assets are holding well below their moving averages — something that is particularly unusual for Bitcoin. Indeed, BTC price movement is usually very sporadic, not staying in the same place for long. With this in mind, analysts hypothesize that Bitcoin could experience mean reversion at a similar rate to Treasury bonds. This would mark a shift in price behavior from its typical hyper-volatility.</p><p>With these factors in mind, the report suggests the stage is set for a shift in Bitcoin prices away from commodities and more toward stable bonds. The report already notes a growing shift in investor mindset, with buyers holding the coin like a store of value purchase rather than a quick pump-and-dump play.</p><p>All-in-all, this prediction would be great for existing buyers, while also expanding the appeal of Bitcoin for new buyers. With the coin behaving more predictably, many more investors would be keen on adding BTC to their portfolios.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bloomberg’s Bitcoin Report Suggests a Coming Shift in Behavior for BTC Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBloomberg’s Bitcoin Report Suggests a Coming Shift in Behavior for BTC Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-05 10:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/08/bloombergs-bitcoin-report-suggests-a-coming-shift-in-behavior-for-btc-prices/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bloomberg Intelligence has released a new report on Bitcoin(BTC-USD).The report suggests that Bitcoin could shed its volatile nature in the wake of the crypto crash.It predicts the coin will behave ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/bloombergs-bitcoin-report-suggests-a-coming-shift-in-behavior-for-btc-prices/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/bloombergs-bitcoin-report-suggests-a-coming-shift-in-behavior-for-btc-prices/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108171991","content_text":"Bloomberg Intelligence has released a new report on Bitcoin(BTC-USD).The report suggests that Bitcoin could shed its volatile nature in the wake of the crypto crash.It predicts the coin will behave more like U.S. Treasury bonds.Bitcoin(BTC-USD) prices are a hugely-influential force on the entire crypto market. This is a major detriment to the market’s potential for growth; given Bitcoin’s whiplash ups and downs — especially in the last year — investors loathe trusting the asset as a safe vessel for investing. But what if that jarring price momentum slowed down drastically? Bloomberg Intelligence is releasing a report that suggests exactly that possibility.With a market capitalization of $440 billion, Bitcoin is an absolutely massive project. This value places the coin among even the largest traditional stocks in the world. Moreover, it makes Bitcoin worth nearly half of the entire crypto market, valued at just over $1 trillion. This size makes Bitcoin an authoritarian force within the crypto industry; the market doesn’t trend up without Bitcoin trending up, and it doesn’t trend down without Bitcoin trending down. It’s the pacesetter for all crypto price action.This has its benefits, but also its drawbacks. Some investors enjoy knowing that their entire portfolio will shoot up if Bitcoin catches a growth spurt. However, Bitcoin prices are typically a purely speculative affair. Developers aren’t working to turn Bitcoin into a decentralized application (dApp) network a la Ethereum(ETH-USD). And while upgrades like Taproothelp speed up transactions, most people are only buying the asset to load it into a cold wallet, rather than trade it.With the recent crypto crash knocking the entire industry down several pegs, investors got to see this speculative model rapidly sour. In barely over a month, the coin lost half of its value, accelerating a steady decline that had been occurring since January. But, could this tumble bring an end to the coin’s jolty nature? A new report from Bloomberg analysts believes so.Bitcoin Price Drop Could Influence Prices Going ForwardBitcoin price movement is unlike anything investors have seen on the traditional stock market, that’s for sure. But what if the asset were to cool down from its volatility and settle into a more stable pattern of growth and contraction? According to a report from Bloomberg Intelligence, the stage could be set for just that.The research team at Bloomberghasreleased a new report on Bitcoin, and they posit that under the right conditions, Bitcoin could very well settle into behavior similar to commodities like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds.The report likens Bitcoin’s price movement amid the crash to the effects of Federal Reserve policies on Treasury bond values. Both of these assets are holding well below their moving averages — something that is particularly unusual for Bitcoin. Indeed, BTC price movement is usually very sporadic, not staying in the same place for long. With this in mind, analysts hypothesize that Bitcoin could experience mean reversion at a similar rate to Treasury bonds. This would mark a shift in price behavior from its typical hyper-volatility.With these factors in mind, the report suggests the stage is set for a shift in Bitcoin prices away from commodities and more toward stable bonds. The report already notes a growing shift in investor mindset, with buyers holding the coin like a store of value purchase rather than a quick pump-and-dump play.All-in-all, this prediction would be great for existing buyers, while also expanding the appeal of Bitcoin for new buyers. With the coin behaving more predictably, many more investors would be keen on adding BTC to their portfolios.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902896806,"gmtCreate":1659665516308,"gmtModify":1705299572529,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902896806","repostId":"1139151693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139151693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659664618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139151693?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-05 09:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The SPY's Risk-Premium Spells Danger","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139151693","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500's risk-premium spells danger.The market's enthusiasm about the receding yield cur","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500&#39;s risk-premium spells danger.</li><li>The market&#39;s enthusiasm about the receding yield curve is dangerous.</li><li>Macroeconomic factors aren&#39;t conducive to another expansionary monetary policy cycle.</li><li>Don&#39;t confuse lagging economic indicators with future influencing factors.</li><li>Although valuations and technical levels are appealing, we think they form a trap.</li></ul><p>In our previous article, we formulated a bearish case on the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) due to various valuation and macroeconomic concerns. After a sharp price increase during the recent month, we felt it necessary to review our stance. We remain bearish on the S&amp;P 500 index and the SPY collectively as we believe the recent surge is overdone and somewhat premature.</p><p>For the purpose of this article, we&#39;ll once again assume the SPY and S&amp;P 500 collectively due to the proximities we have outlined before, which is yet again conveyed by the chart below (via the tracking error).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c02a2058184bddff18a8f86784b525a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>SPY Risk Premium Analysis</b></p><p>The data I extracted for our quantitative analysis ranges from our previous article (previous yield curve), Gurufocus (current yield curve), YChart (dividend yield), and FactSet (expected earnings).</p><p>I combined the data to formulate a risk premium explaining the S&amp;P 500&#39;s expected return. The whole &#39;recipe&#39; can be found via this link if you&#39;re interested in dissecting the formula.</p><p>Remember that the risk premium is the return investors demand for the risk they&#39;re willing to take. Here&#39;s what I discovered by observing the latest quarterly shift in the S&amp;P 500&#39;s risk-premium.</p><ol><li>Broad-based expected earnings have tapered down amid a consecutive quarterly economic contraction, which is by definition a recession.</li><li>Due to another price drawdown in the first quarter, dividend yields have risen. Dividends are mostly lagged indicators of company performance, which is something to keep in mind.</li><li>Amid the economy&#39;s contraction, investors anticipate interest rate hikes to settle lower than they did previously. As such, the market has priced a lower future interest rate environment.</li><li>Collectively, the forward-looking risk premium is lower, but equity investors seem to focus more on the interest rate effect and the bond market than anything else.</li></ol><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/043cebc8af2ab170153f6ff1180f5ae8\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha, FactSet, YCharts, Gurufocus</p><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><p>Before I delve into what the quantitative metrics tell us, I&#39;d like to mention the outperformance of high-beta stocks during the past month, which tend to be more sensitive to monetary policy than lower-beta stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8901cf5b842a2fefc00859aa8259bde\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPLVdata byYCharts</p><p>Okay, so let&#39;s get into a more comprehensive analysis of the quantitative metrics.</p><p>It seems as though investors are pricing a divergence between the long-term bond yields and a systemic support factor of company earnings. Even though we saw various high-profile earnings misses in recent weeks, many companies are still reporting earnings growth well above their 2019 trajectories.</p><p>These earnings reports are coincidental variables and often fall off a cliff as a recession falls into deeper territory. However, we&#39;ve all become accustomed to the federal reserve prioritising short-term economic growth instead of curbing inflation. As such, during the past month investors have priced an earnings re-ignition as they anticipate premature expansionary monetary policy. Adding substance to this argument is that non-core inflation has finally started to recede, which is normal; non-core inflation tends to revert to mean rapidly due to its elasticity.</p><p>Although the market&#39;s priced the mentioned aspects, we still think earnings growth will stagnate due to themarginal utility effect, which could cause weaker household balance sheets. This is normal for the economy, which is a cyclical domain and not a linear or exponentially growing vehicle.</p><p>Furthermore, dividend yields might recede with recent stock price surges, and many companies might preserve their net income in the coming quarters to add a margin of safety. Lastly, the yield curve is still very unpredictable, as explained by the VIX below; what does this mean? There&#39;s uncertainty in future interest rates policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55fdfc3c3774fc562d18eeafb426c9b2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata byYChartsQualitative Overlay</p><p>This section might be a tad subjective, but it&#39;s just my take on the recent bounce and related factors such as the broader economy and 2020&#39;s bear market.</p><p>Firstly, I&#39;ve seen many investors compare this bear market to 2020. However, there&#39;s no relation. In 2020, we were in a low-inflation environment, which allowed for abrupt expansionary economic policy, subsequently providing support to the stock market. Also, unemployment rates dropped significantly, causing many to invest in the financial markets for a secondary or primary means of income.</p><p>As of now, expansionary policy can&#39;t be as illustrious (as in 2020) because the central authorities still need to contend with high inflation and a tight labor market. Therefore, the proximities between this bear market and 2020&#39;s bear market are slightly invalid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79aa8c9ea779e11114a0458e2e40036f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Unemployment Ratedata byYCharts</p><p>Now moving on to what I consider the most important part, the broader economy. An argument about whether the recent contraction is a severe economic problem or not is subjective. However, I prefer calling it a recession as I believe in maintaining threshold definitions to preserve baselines for ex-ante analysis.</p><p>The reason I remain worried about the recent contraction is threefold. Firstly, the U.S. is still early in the rate-hike cycle and has not fully curbed inflation. Yet, economic contraction has already occurred, leaving policymakers at a crossroads.</p><p>Furthermore, there&#39;s been an increase in oil supply but nothing to suggest that authorities are taking our global energy shortage seriously. For as long as oil and gas remain at elevated prices, we&#39;ll see pressure being put on corporate and household balance sheets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3879ebca11df5ab08c1a77c3efa21d8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Household Financial Obligationsdata by YCharts</p><p>Lastly, there seems to be a&#34;wealth effect&#34;settling into the United States, which is an economic term used for developed nations that experience decreasing labor productivity. I&#39;ve repeatedly heard about how tight the labor market is, which is more worrying than most believe; it could diminish long-term growth.</p><p>I conclude this section with the following. Remember that the long-term growth of the stock marketis in line with GDP growth as it&#39;s assumed that the market&#39;s P/E ratio will revert to mean and that the earnings yield will coalesce with GDP growth. So, ask yourself, will U.S. GDP proliferate over the next ten years? I won&#39;t be too sure.</p><p><b>A Few Positives</b></p><p>Although I&#39;ve already mentioned a few positives, it&#39;s necessary to add more to juxtapose a bearish case. From an ex-post valuation perspective, the S&amp;P 500&#39;s P/E is back at an investable level, and its earnings yield is well above pre-pandemic levels. Thus, if you&#39;re a value investor, you&#39;d probably be very bullish right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7de72c0d17cb72df13b25f9d48dae60\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>S&amp;P 500 P/E Ratiodata by YCharts</p><p>Furthermore, from a technical analysis vantage point, this could be a prolonged market upturn. The SPY presents another support level at the $416 handle, which only catches resistance at the $460 mark. So, if you&#39;re a believer in looking at past prices to predict future prices, you&#39;ll also be smiling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5629362eabd59d0c194688b9e3d049f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p>Collectively, we don&#39;t like the S&amp;P 500&#39;s risk premium and believe that the recent market upturn is largely down to a belief that expansionary monetary policy will prevail. However, with the macroeconomic environment still in doubt, we think the earnings yield on S&amp;P 500 stocks and their dividend yields could fade soon.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The SPY's Risk-Premium Spells Danger</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe SPY's Risk-Premium Spells Danger\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-05 09:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529599-spy-risk-premium-assessed><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500's risk-premium spells danger.The market's enthusiasm about the receding yield curve is dangerous.Macroeconomic factors aren't conducive to another expansionary monetary policy cycle...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529599-spy-risk-premium-assessed\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529599-spy-risk-premium-assessed","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139151693","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500's risk-premium spells danger.The market's enthusiasm about the receding yield curve is dangerous.Macroeconomic factors aren't conducive to another expansionary monetary policy cycle.Don't confuse lagging economic indicators with future influencing factors.Although valuations and technical levels are appealing, we think they form a trap.In our previous article, we formulated a bearish case on the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) due to various valuation and macroeconomic concerns. After a sharp price increase during the recent month, we felt it necessary to review our stance. We remain bearish on the S&P 500 index and the SPY collectively as we believe the recent surge is overdone and somewhat premature.For the purpose of this article, we'll once again assume the SPY and S&P 500 collectively due to the proximities we have outlined before, which is yet again conveyed by the chart below (via the tracking error).Seeking AlphaSPY Risk Premium AnalysisThe data I extracted for our quantitative analysis ranges from our previous article (previous yield curve), Gurufocus (current yield curve), YChart (dividend yield), and FactSet (expected earnings).I combined the data to formulate a risk premium explaining the S&P 500's expected return. The whole 'recipe' can be found via this link if you're interested in dissecting the formula.Remember that the risk premium is the return investors demand for the risk they're willing to take. Here's what I discovered by observing the latest quarterly shift in the S&P 500's risk-premium.Broad-based expected earnings have tapered down amid a consecutive quarterly economic contraction, which is by definition a recession.Due to another price drawdown in the first quarter, dividend yields have risen. Dividends are mostly lagged indicators of company performance, which is something to keep in mind.Amid the economy's contraction, investors anticipate interest rate hikes to settle lower than they did previously. As such, the market has priced a lower future interest rate environment.Collectively, the forward-looking risk premium is lower, but equity investors seem to focus more on the interest rate effect and the bond market than anything else.Source: Seeking Alpha, FactSet, YCharts, GurufocusBefore I delve into what the quantitative metrics tell us, I'd like to mention the outperformance of high-beta stocks during the past month, which tend to be more sensitive to monetary policy than lower-beta stocks.SPLVdata byYChartsOkay, so let's get into a more comprehensive analysis of the quantitative metrics.It seems as though investors are pricing a divergence between the long-term bond yields and a systemic support factor of company earnings. Even though we saw various high-profile earnings misses in recent weeks, many companies are still reporting earnings growth well above their 2019 trajectories.These earnings reports are coincidental variables and often fall off a cliff as a recession falls into deeper territory. However, we've all become accustomed to the federal reserve prioritising short-term economic growth instead of curbing inflation. As such, during the past month investors have priced an earnings re-ignition as they anticipate premature expansionary monetary policy. Adding substance to this argument is that non-core inflation has finally started to recede, which is normal; non-core inflation tends to revert to mean rapidly due to its elasticity.Although the market's priced the mentioned aspects, we still think earnings growth will stagnate due to themarginal utility effect, which could cause weaker household balance sheets. This is normal for the economy, which is a cyclical domain and not a linear or exponentially growing vehicle.Furthermore, dividend yields might recede with recent stock price surges, and many companies might preserve their net income in the coming quarters to add a margin of safety. Lastly, the yield curve is still very unpredictable, as explained by the VIX below; what does this mean? There's uncertainty in future interest rates policy.VIXdata byYChartsQualitative OverlayThis section might be a tad subjective, but it's just my take on the recent bounce and related factors such as the broader economy and 2020's bear market.Firstly, I've seen many investors compare this bear market to 2020. However, there's no relation. In 2020, we were in a low-inflation environment, which allowed for abrupt expansionary economic policy, subsequently providing support to the stock market. Also, unemployment rates dropped significantly, causing many to invest in the financial markets for a secondary or primary means of income.As of now, expansionary policy can't be as illustrious (as in 2020) because the central authorities still need to contend with high inflation and a tight labor market. Therefore, the proximities between this bear market and 2020's bear market are slightly invalid.US Unemployment Ratedata byYChartsNow moving on to what I consider the most important part, the broader economy. An argument about whether the recent contraction is a severe economic problem or not is subjective. However, I prefer calling it a recession as I believe in maintaining threshold definitions to preserve baselines for ex-ante analysis.The reason I remain worried about the recent contraction is threefold. Firstly, the U.S. is still early in the rate-hike cycle and has not fully curbed inflation. Yet, economic contraction has already occurred, leaving policymakers at a crossroads.Furthermore, there's been an increase in oil supply but nothing to suggest that authorities are taking our global energy shortage seriously. For as long as oil and gas remain at elevated prices, we'll see pressure being put on corporate and household balance sheets.US Household Financial Obligationsdata by YChartsLastly, there seems to be a\"wealth effect\"settling into the United States, which is an economic term used for developed nations that experience decreasing labor productivity. I've repeatedly heard about how tight the labor market is, which is more worrying than most believe; it could diminish long-term growth.I conclude this section with the following. Remember that the long-term growth of the stock marketis in line with GDP growth as it's assumed that the market's P/E ratio will revert to mean and that the earnings yield will coalesce with GDP growth. So, ask yourself, will U.S. GDP proliferate over the next ten years? I won't be too sure.A Few PositivesAlthough I've already mentioned a few positives, it's necessary to add more to juxtapose a bearish case. From an ex-post valuation perspective, the S&P 500's P/E is back at an investable level, and its earnings yield is well above pre-pandemic levels. Thus, if you're a value investor, you'd probably be very bullish right now.S&P 500 P/E Ratiodata by YChartsFurthermore, from a technical analysis vantage point, this could be a prolonged market upturn. The SPY presents another support level at the $416 handle, which only catches resistance at the $460 mark. So, if you're a believer in looking at past prices to predict future prices, you'll also be smiling.Seeking AlphaConcluding ThoughtsCollectively, we don't like the S&P 500's risk premium and believe that the recent market upturn is largely down to a belief that expansionary monetary policy will prevail. However, with the macroeconomic environment still in doubt, we think the earnings yield on S&P 500 stocks and their dividend yields could fade soon.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902365161,"gmtCreate":1659655284555,"gmtModify":1705406272157,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>View on Tesla Motors(TSLA)BullishBearish","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>View on Tesla Motors(TSLA)BullishBearish","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$View on Tesla Motors(TSLA)BullishBearish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902365161","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902035887,"gmtCreate":1659609766152,"gmtModify":1705982129441,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very new to these. Anyone care to share a link or pointers to wbat to look for","listText":"Very new to these. Anyone care to share a link or pointers to wbat to look for","text":"Very new to these. Anyone care to share a link or pointers to wbat to look for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902035887","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9902035887,"gmtCreate":1659609766152,"gmtModify":1705982129441,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very new to these. Anyone care to share a link or pointers to wbat to look for","listText":"Very new to these. Anyone care to share a link or pointers to wbat to look for","text":"Very new to these. Anyone care to share a link or pointers to wbat to look for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902035887","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902892059,"gmtCreate":1659665596673,"gmtModify":1705299812799,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902892059","repostId":"1108171991","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108171991","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659665087,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108171991?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-05 10:04","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Bloomberg’s Bitcoin Report Suggests a Coming Shift in Behavior for BTC Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108171991","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Bloomberg Intelligence has released a new report on Bitcoin(BTC-USD).The report suggests that Bitcoi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Bloomberg Intelligence has released a new report on <b>Bitcoin</b>(<b><u>BTC-USD</u></b>).</li><li>The report suggests that Bitcoin could shed its volatile nature in the wake of the crypto crash.</li><li>It predicts the coin will behave more like U.S. Treasury bonds.</li></ul><p><b>Bitcoin</b>(<b><u>BTC-USD</u></b>) prices are a hugely-influential force on the entire crypto market. This is a major detriment to the market’s potential for growth; given Bitcoin’s whiplash ups and downs — especially in the last year — investors loathe trusting the asset as a safe vessel for investing. But what if that jarring price momentum slowed down drastically? Bloomberg Intelligence is releasing a report that suggests exactly that possibility.</p><p>With a market capitalization of $440 billion, Bitcoin is an absolutely massive project. This value places the coin among even the largest traditional stocks in the world. Moreover, it makes Bitcoin worth nearly half of the entire crypto market, valued at just over $1 trillion. This size makes Bitcoin an authoritarian force within the crypto industry; the market doesn’t trend up without Bitcoin trending up, and it doesn’t trend down without Bitcoin trending down. It’s the pacesetter for all crypto price action.</p><p>This has its benefits, but also its drawbacks. Some investors enjoy knowing that their entire portfolio will shoot up if Bitcoin catches a growth spurt. However, Bitcoin prices are typically a purely speculative affair. Developers aren’t working to turn Bitcoin into a decentralized application (dApp) network a la <b>Ethereum</b>(<b><u>ETH-USD</u></b>). And while upgrades like Taproothelp speed up transactions, most people are only buying the asset to load it into a cold wallet, rather than trade it.</p><p>With the recent crypto crash knocking the entire industry down several pegs, investors got to see this speculative model rapidly sour. In barely over a month, the coin lost half of its value, accelerating a steady decline that had been occurring since January. But, could this tumble bring an end to the coin’s jolty nature? A new report from Bloomberg analysts believes so.</p><p><b>Bitcoin Price Drop Could Influence Prices Going Forward</b></p><p>Bitcoin price movement is unlike anything investors have seen on the traditional stock market, that’s for sure. But what if the asset were to cool down from its volatility and settle into a more stable pattern of growth and contraction? According to a report from Bloomberg Intelligence, the stage could be set for just that.</p><p>The research team at <i>Bloomberg</i>hasreleased a new report on Bitcoin, and they posit that under the right conditions, Bitcoin could very well settle into behavior similar to commodities like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds.</p><p>The report likens Bitcoin’s price movement amid the crash to the effects of Federal Reserve policies on Treasury bond values. Both of these assets are holding well below their moving averages — something that is particularly unusual for Bitcoin. Indeed, BTC price movement is usually very sporadic, not staying in the same place for long. With this in mind, analysts hypothesize that Bitcoin could experience mean reversion at a similar rate to Treasury bonds. This would mark a shift in price behavior from its typical hyper-volatility.</p><p>With these factors in mind, the report suggests the stage is set for a shift in Bitcoin prices away from commodities and more toward stable bonds. The report already notes a growing shift in investor mindset, with buyers holding the coin like a store of value purchase rather than a quick pump-and-dump play.</p><p>All-in-all, this prediction would be great for existing buyers, while also expanding the appeal of Bitcoin for new buyers. With the coin behaving more predictably, many more investors would be keen on adding BTC to their portfolios.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bloomberg’s Bitcoin Report Suggests a Coming Shift in Behavior for BTC Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBloomberg’s Bitcoin Report Suggests a Coming Shift in Behavior for BTC Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-05 10:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/08/bloombergs-bitcoin-report-suggests-a-coming-shift-in-behavior-for-btc-prices/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bloomberg Intelligence has released a new report on Bitcoin(BTC-USD).The report suggests that Bitcoin could shed its volatile nature in the wake of the crypto crash.It predicts the coin will behave ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/bloombergs-bitcoin-report-suggests-a-coming-shift-in-behavior-for-btc-prices/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/bloombergs-bitcoin-report-suggests-a-coming-shift-in-behavior-for-btc-prices/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108171991","content_text":"Bloomberg Intelligence has released a new report on Bitcoin(BTC-USD).The report suggests that Bitcoin could shed its volatile nature in the wake of the crypto crash.It predicts the coin will behave more like U.S. Treasury bonds.Bitcoin(BTC-USD) prices are a hugely-influential force on the entire crypto market. This is a major detriment to the market’s potential for growth; given Bitcoin’s whiplash ups and downs — especially in the last year — investors loathe trusting the asset as a safe vessel for investing. But what if that jarring price momentum slowed down drastically? Bloomberg Intelligence is releasing a report that suggests exactly that possibility.With a market capitalization of $440 billion, Bitcoin is an absolutely massive project. This value places the coin among even the largest traditional stocks in the world. Moreover, it makes Bitcoin worth nearly half of the entire crypto market, valued at just over $1 trillion. This size makes Bitcoin an authoritarian force within the crypto industry; the market doesn’t trend up without Bitcoin trending up, and it doesn’t trend down without Bitcoin trending down. It’s the pacesetter for all crypto price action.This has its benefits, but also its drawbacks. Some investors enjoy knowing that their entire portfolio will shoot up if Bitcoin catches a growth spurt. However, Bitcoin prices are typically a purely speculative affair. Developers aren’t working to turn Bitcoin into a decentralized application (dApp) network a la Ethereum(ETH-USD). And while upgrades like Taproothelp speed up transactions, most people are only buying the asset to load it into a cold wallet, rather than trade it.With the recent crypto crash knocking the entire industry down several pegs, investors got to see this speculative model rapidly sour. In barely over a month, the coin lost half of its value, accelerating a steady decline that had been occurring since January. But, could this tumble bring an end to the coin’s jolty nature? A new report from Bloomberg analysts believes so.Bitcoin Price Drop Could Influence Prices Going ForwardBitcoin price movement is unlike anything investors have seen on the traditional stock market, that’s for sure. But what if the asset were to cool down from its volatility and settle into a more stable pattern of growth and contraction? According to a report from Bloomberg Intelligence, the stage could be set for just that.The research team at Bloomberghasreleased a new report on Bitcoin, and they posit that under the right conditions, Bitcoin could very well settle into behavior similar to commodities like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds.The report likens Bitcoin’s price movement amid the crash to the effects of Federal Reserve policies on Treasury bond values. Both of these assets are holding well below their moving averages — something that is particularly unusual for Bitcoin. Indeed, BTC price movement is usually very sporadic, not staying in the same place for long. With this in mind, analysts hypothesize that Bitcoin could experience mean reversion at a similar rate to Treasury bonds. This would mark a shift in price behavior from its typical hyper-volatility.With these factors in mind, the report suggests the stage is set for a shift in Bitcoin prices away from commodities and more toward stable bonds. The report already notes a growing shift in investor mindset, with buyers holding the coin like a store of value purchase rather than a quick pump-and-dump play.All-in-all, this prediction would be great for existing buyers, while also expanding the appeal of Bitcoin for new buyers. With the coin behaving more predictably, many more investors would be keen on adding BTC to their portfolios.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902365161,"gmtCreate":1659655284555,"gmtModify":1705406272157,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>View on Tesla Motors(TSLA)BullishBearish","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>View on Tesla Motors(TSLA)BullishBearish","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$View on Tesla Motors(TSLA)BullishBearish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902365161","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960316089,"gmtCreate":1668065723642,"gmtModify":1676538007132,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960316089","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982427622,"gmtCreate":1667237788467,"gmtModify":1676537882732,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally a win","listText":"Finally a win","text":"Finally a win","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1b6593e99877f1956928d01fd9f6b6c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982427622","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980880926,"gmtCreate":1665704284265,"gmtModify":1676537650783,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c0f7abd8078a9efa4edb74432417d807","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980880926","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980832126,"gmtCreate":1665703214265,"gmtModify":1676537650386,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great stuff","listText":"Great stuff","text":"Great stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980832126","repostId":"9917420609","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9917420609,"gmtCreate":1665567897301,"gmtModify":1676537628826,"author":{"id":"4117019249845262","authorId":"4117019249845262","name":"PortfolioHub","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cf76d90ff16225a39ec63efe71cec9db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117019249845262","authorIdStr":"4117019249845262"},"themes":[],"title":"4 Top Investing Principles To Guide Your Decisions As A Beginner","htmlText":"What should I look out for before investing my money into stocks or other financial instruments?Photo bySortteronUnsplashThe stock market has always fascinated investors. Whether they want to invest their savings for retirement or simply earn some extra income, the stock market offers them a variety of options.There are four basic principles that every investor should follow before entering the stock market. It’s important to keep in mind and include diversification, risk management, value investing and time horizon.What is investing?Investing is buying securities like stocks and bonds. You buy shares of companies you believe will do well financially. When those companies perform well, you make money. When they don’t, you lose money.Buying individual shares can be is time consuming and inv","listText":"What should I look out for before investing my money into stocks or other financial instruments?Photo bySortteronUnsplashThe stock market has always fascinated investors. Whether they want to invest their savings for retirement or simply earn some extra income, the stock market offers them a variety of options.There are four basic principles that every investor should follow before entering the stock market. It’s important to keep in mind and include diversification, risk management, value investing and time horizon.What is investing?Investing is buying securities like stocks and bonds. You buy shares of companies you believe will do well financially. When those companies perform well, you make money. When they don’t, you lose money.Buying individual shares can be is time consuming and inv","text":"What should I look out for before investing my money into stocks or other financial instruments?Photo bySortteronUnsplashThe stock market has always fascinated investors. Whether they want to invest their savings for retirement or simply earn some extra income, the stock market offers them a variety of options.There are four basic principles that every investor should follow before entering the stock market. It’s important to keep in mind and include diversification, risk management, value investing and time horizon.What is investing?Investing is buying securities like stocks and bonds. You buy shares of companies you believe will do well financially. When those companies perform well, you make money. 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TRUST(CJLU.SI)$[Speechless]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb21e287a55bd1e1faa78299332ef899","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902895569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902896806,"gmtCreate":1659665516308,"gmtModify":1705299572529,"author":{"id":"4105740573493280","authorId":"4105740573493280","name":"Mo Pereirra","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa814b5d8d07c9e4ac8d9420c3da046b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105740573493280","authorIdStr":"4105740573493280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902896806","repostId":"1139151693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139151693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659664618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139151693?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-05 09:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The SPY's Risk-Premium Spells Danger","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139151693","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500's risk-premium spells danger.The market's enthusiasm about the receding yield cur","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500&#39;s risk-premium spells danger.</li><li>The market&#39;s enthusiasm about the receding yield curve is dangerous.</li><li>Macroeconomic factors aren&#39;t conducive to another expansionary monetary policy cycle.</li><li>Don&#39;t confuse lagging economic indicators with future influencing factors.</li><li>Although valuations and technical levels are appealing, we think they form a trap.</li></ul><p>In our previous article, we formulated a bearish case on the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) due to various valuation and macroeconomic concerns. After a sharp price increase during the recent month, we felt it necessary to review our stance. We remain bearish on the S&amp;P 500 index and the SPY collectively as we believe the recent surge is overdone and somewhat premature.</p><p>For the purpose of this article, we&#39;ll once again assume the SPY and S&amp;P 500 collectively due to the proximities we have outlined before, which is yet again conveyed by the chart below (via the tracking error).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c02a2058184bddff18a8f86784b525a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>SPY Risk Premium Analysis</b></p><p>The data I extracted for our quantitative analysis ranges from our previous article (previous yield curve), Gurufocus (current yield curve), YChart (dividend yield), and FactSet (expected earnings).</p><p>I combined the data to formulate a risk premium explaining the S&amp;P 500&#39;s expected return. The whole &#39;recipe&#39; can be found via this link if you&#39;re interested in dissecting the formula.</p><p>Remember that the risk premium is the return investors demand for the risk they&#39;re willing to take. Here&#39;s what I discovered by observing the latest quarterly shift in the S&amp;P 500&#39;s risk-premium.</p><ol><li>Broad-based expected earnings have tapered down amid a consecutive quarterly economic contraction, which is by definition a recession.</li><li>Due to another price drawdown in the first quarter, dividend yields have risen. Dividends are mostly lagged indicators of company performance, which is something to keep in mind.</li><li>Amid the economy&#39;s contraction, investors anticipate interest rate hikes to settle lower than they did previously. As such, the market has priced a lower future interest rate environment.</li><li>Collectively, the forward-looking risk premium is lower, but equity investors seem to focus more on the interest rate effect and the bond market than anything else.</li></ol><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/043cebc8af2ab170153f6ff1180f5ae8\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha, FactSet, YCharts, Gurufocus</p><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><p>Before I delve into what the quantitative metrics tell us, I&#39;d like to mention the outperformance of high-beta stocks during the past month, which tend to be more sensitive to monetary policy than lower-beta stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8901cf5b842a2fefc00859aa8259bde\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPLVdata byYCharts</p><p>Okay, so let&#39;s get into a more comprehensive analysis of the quantitative metrics.</p><p>It seems as though investors are pricing a divergence between the long-term bond yields and a systemic support factor of company earnings. Even though we saw various high-profile earnings misses in recent weeks, many companies are still reporting earnings growth well above their 2019 trajectories.</p><p>These earnings reports are coincidental variables and often fall off a cliff as a recession falls into deeper territory. However, we&#39;ve all become accustomed to the federal reserve prioritising short-term economic growth instead of curbing inflation. As such, during the past month investors have priced an earnings re-ignition as they anticipate premature expansionary monetary policy. Adding substance to this argument is that non-core inflation has finally started to recede, which is normal; non-core inflation tends to revert to mean rapidly due to its elasticity.</p><p>Although the market&#39;s priced the mentioned aspects, we still think earnings growth will stagnate due to themarginal utility effect, which could cause weaker household balance sheets. This is normal for the economy, which is a cyclical domain and not a linear or exponentially growing vehicle.</p><p>Furthermore, dividend yields might recede with recent stock price surges, and many companies might preserve their net income in the coming quarters to add a margin of safety. Lastly, the yield curve is still very unpredictable, as explained by the VIX below; what does this mean? There&#39;s uncertainty in future interest rates policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55fdfc3c3774fc562d18eeafb426c9b2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata byYChartsQualitative Overlay</p><p>This section might be a tad subjective, but it&#39;s just my take on the recent bounce and related factors such as the broader economy and 2020&#39;s bear market.</p><p>Firstly, I&#39;ve seen many investors compare this bear market to 2020. However, there&#39;s no relation. In 2020, we were in a low-inflation environment, which allowed for abrupt expansionary economic policy, subsequently providing support to the stock market. Also, unemployment rates dropped significantly, causing many to invest in the financial markets for a secondary or primary means of income.</p><p>As of now, expansionary policy can&#39;t be as illustrious (as in 2020) because the central authorities still need to contend with high inflation and a tight labor market. Therefore, the proximities between this bear market and 2020&#39;s bear market are slightly invalid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79aa8c9ea779e11114a0458e2e40036f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Unemployment Ratedata byYCharts</p><p>Now moving on to what I consider the most important part, the broader economy. An argument about whether the recent contraction is a severe economic problem or not is subjective. However, I prefer calling it a recession as I believe in maintaining threshold definitions to preserve baselines for ex-ante analysis.</p><p>The reason I remain worried about the recent contraction is threefold. Firstly, the U.S. is still early in the rate-hike cycle and has not fully curbed inflation. Yet, economic contraction has already occurred, leaving policymakers at a crossroads.</p><p>Furthermore, there&#39;s been an increase in oil supply but nothing to suggest that authorities are taking our global energy shortage seriously. For as long as oil and gas remain at elevated prices, we&#39;ll see pressure being put on corporate and household balance sheets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3879ebca11df5ab08c1a77c3efa21d8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Household Financial Obligationsdata by YCharts</p><p>Lastly, there seems to be a&#34;wealth effect&#34;settling into the United States, which is an economic term used for developed nations that experience decreasing labor productivity. I&#39;ve repeatedly heard about how tight the labor market is, which is more worrying than most believe; it could diminish long-term growth.</p><p>I conclude this section with the following. Remember that the long-term growth of the stock marketis in line with GDP growth as it&#39;s assumed that the market&#39;s P/E ratio will revert to mean and that the earnings yield will coalesce with GDP growth. So, ask yourself, will U.S. GDP proliferate over the next ten years? I won&#39;t be too sure.</p><p><b>A Few Positives</b></p><p>Although I&#39;ve already mentioned a few positives, it&#39;s necessary to add more to juxtapose a bearish case. From an ex-post valuation perspective, the S&amp;P 500&#39;s P/E is back at an investable level, and its earnings yield is well above pre-pandemic levels. Thus, if you&#39;re a value investor, you&#39;d probably be very bullish right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7de72c0d17cb72df13b25f9d48dae60\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>S&amp;P 500 P/E Ratiodata by YCharts</p><p>Furthermore, from a technical analysis vantage point, this could be a prolonged market upturn. The SPY presents another support level at the $416 handle, which only catches resistance at the $460 mark. So, if you&#39;re a believer in looking at past prices to predict future prices, you&#39;ll also be smiling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5629362eabd59d0c194688b9e3d049f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p>Collectively, we don&#39;t like the S&amp;P 500&#39;s risk premium and believe that the recent market upturn is largely down to a belief that expansionary monetary policy will prevail. However, with the macroeconomic environment still in doubt, we think the earnings yield on S&amp;P 500 stocks and their dividend yields could fade soon.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The SPY's Risk-Premium Spells Danger</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe SPY's Risk-Premium Spells Danger\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-05 09:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529599-spy-risk-premium-assessed><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500's risk-premium spells danger.The market's enthusiasm about the receding yield curve is dangerous.Macroeconomic factors aren't conducive to another expansionary monetary policy cycle...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529599-spy-risk-premium-assessed\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529599-spy-risk-premium-assessed","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139151693","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500's risk-premium spells danger.The market's enthusiasm about the receding yield curve is dangerous.Macroeconomic factors aren't conducive to another expansionary monetary policy cycle.Don't confuse lagging economic indicators with future influencing factors.Although valuations and technical levels are appealing, we think they form a trap.In our previous article, we formulated a bearish case on the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) due to various valuation and macroeconomic concerns. After a sharp price increase during the recent month, we felt it necessary to review our stance. We remain bearish on the S&P 500 index and the SPY collectively as we believe the recent surge is overdone and somewhat premature.For the purpose of this article, we'll once again assume the SPY and S&P 500 collectively due to the proximities we have outlined before, which is yet again conveyed by the chart below (via the tracking error).Seeking AlphaSPY Risk Premium AnalysisThe data I extracted for our quantitative analysis ranges from our previous article (previous yield curve), Gurufocus (current yield curve), YChart (dividend yield), and FactSet (expected earnings).I combined the data to formulate a risk premium explaining the S&P 500's expected return. The whole 'recipe' can be found via this link if you're interested in dissecting the formula.Remember that the risk premium is the return investors demand for the risk they're willing to take. Here's what I discovered by observing the latest quarterly shift in the S&P 500's risk-premium.Broad-based expected earnings have tapered down amid a consecutive quarterly economic contraction, which is by definition a recession.Due to another price drawdown in the first quarter, dividend yields have risen. Dividends are mostly lagged indicators of company performance, which is something to keep in mind.Amid the economy's contraction, investors anticipate interest rate hikes to settle lower than they did previously. As such, the market has priced a lower future interest rate environment.Collectively, the forward-looking risk premium is lower, but equity investors seem to focus more on the interest rate effect and the bond market than anything else.Source: Seeking Alpha, FactSet, YCharts, GurufocusBefore I delve into what the quantitative metrics tell us, I'd like to mention the outperformance of high-beta stocks during the past month, which tend to be more sensitive to monetary policy than lower-beta stocks.SPLVdata byYChartsOkay, so let's get into a more comprehensive analysis of the quantitative metrics.It seems as though investors are pricing a divergence between the long-term bond yields and a systemic support factor of company earnings. Even though we saw various high-profile earnings misses in recent weeks, many companies are still reporting earnings growth well above their 2019 trajectories.These earnings reports are coincidental variables and often fall off a cliff as a recession falls into deeper territory. However, we've all become accustomed to the federal reserve prioritising short-term economic growth instead of curbing inflation. As such, during the past month investors have priced an earnings re-ignition as they anticipate premature expansionary monetary policy. Adding substance to this argument is that non-core inflation has finally started to recede, which is normal; non-core inflation tends to revert to mean rapidly due to its elasticity.Although the market's priced the mentioned aspects, we still think earnings growth will stagnate due to themarginal utility effect, which could cause weaker household balance sheets. This is normal for the economy, which is a cyclical domain and not a linear or exponentially growing vehicle.Furthermore, dividend yields might recede with recent stock price surges, and many companies might preserve their net income in the coming quarters to add a margin of safety. Lastly, the yield curve is still very unpredictable, as explained by the VIX below; what does this mean? There's uncertainty in future interest rates policy.VIXdata byYChartsQualitative OverlayThis section might be a tad subjective, but it's just my take on the recent bounce and related factors such as the broader economy and 2020's bear market.Firstly, I've seen many investors compare this bear market to 2020. However, there's no relation. In 2020, we were in a low-inflation environment, which allowed for abrupt expansionary economic policy, subsequently providing support to the stock market. Also, unemployment rates dropped significantly, causing many to invest in the financial markets for a secondary or primary means of income.As of now, expansionary policy can't be as illustrious (as in 2020) because the central authorities still need to contend with high inflation and a tight labor market. Therefore, the proximities between this bear market and 2020's bear market are slightly invalid.US Unemployment Ratedata byYChartsNow moving on to what I consider the most important part, the broader economy. An argument about whether the recent contraction is a severe economic problem or not is subjective. However, I prefer calling it a recession as I believe in maintaining threshold definitions to preserve baselines for ex-ante analysis.The reason I remain worried about the recent contraction is threefold. Firstly, the U.S. is still early in the rate-hike cycle and has not fully curbed inflation. Yet, economic contraction has already occurred, leaving policymakers at a crossroads.Furthermore, there's been an increase in oil supply but nothing to suggest that authorities are taking our global energy shortage seriously. For as long as oil and gas remain at elevated prices, we'll see pressure being put on corporate and household balance sheets.US Household Financial Obligationsdata by YChartsLastly, there seems to be a\"wealth effect\"settling into the United States, which is an economic term used for developed nations that experience decreasing labor productivity. I've repeatedly heard about how tight the labor market is, which is more worrying than most believe; it could diminish long-term growth.I conclude this section with the following. Remember that the long-term growth of the stock marketis in line with GDP growth as it's assumed that the market's P/E ratio will revert to mean and that the earnings yield will coalesce with GDP growth. So, ask yourself, will U.S. GDP proliferate over the next ten years? I won't be too sure.A Few PositivesAlthough I've already mentioned a few positives, it's necessary to add more to juxtapose a bearish case. From an ex-post valuation perspective, the S&P 500's P/E is back at an investable level, and its earnings yield is well above pre-pandemic levels. Thus, if you're a value investor, you'd probably be very bullish right now.S&P 500 P/E Ratiodata by YChartsFurthermore, from a technical analysis vantage point, this could be a prolonged market upturn. The SPY presents another support level at the $416 handle, which only catches resistance at the $460 mark. So, if you're a believer in looking at past prices to predict future prices, you'll also be smiling.Seeking AlphaConcluding ThoughtsCollectively, we don't like the S&P 500's risk premium and believe that the recent market upturn is largely down to a belief that expansionary monetary policy will prevail. However, with the macroeconomic environment still in doubt, we think the earnings yield on S&P 500 stocks and their dividend yields could fade soon.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}