【Voting Post】Long-term outlook: Bull Case for Japan, Canada, and Israel in a Post-Tariff World, during a US-centred disinflation + rate cuts $iShares MSCI Japan ETF(EWJ)$ $iShares MSCI Canada ETF(EWC)$ $iShares MSCI Israel ETF(EIS)$ If the U.S. were to enact steep tariffs—10-20% for most countries and 60% for China—it would radically reshape global trade dynamics, creating a unique bull case for markets in Japan, Canada, and Israel. Here’s why these countries could benefit the most: Japan 🇯🇵 With high tariffs on China, Japan would become an attractive alternative supplier for the U.S. and global markets, especially in tech
In the short term, it could reach $260 or so very quickly, and there may be some profit taking. There may also be a sell-the-news events in July and August, but if this happens, I am sure long-term players will step up and treat it as a buying opportunity. Looking towards the year end, 2024 may well be the year when the downtrend from 2021 will finally break to the upside.
I believe 2024 will see a very different group of leadership to 2023. Falling rates should benefit Financials and Utilities. Of course AI will continue to be a theme which will benefit Technology, but the rally in Technology will not be restricted to the large cap names - rather, there should be many opportunities in the more beaten up names. One stock that I think could do well is $Zoom(ZM)$ . This stock has gone nowhere for a while despite consistently beating earnings, and their balance sheet as well as customer retention looks extremely strong. They are also the AI play that few people have been taking about.
Investing in the actual asset of Bitcoin should give the best performance, but one can certainly diversify by investing in miners and other crypto-related equities.
2025 outlook for the stock market, in light of Trump's re-election coupled with continued disinflation and rate-cutting cycle: Buy $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Buy$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Buy $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ --- When the economic outlook flips from expectations of recession and high inflation to unexpected growth with stable or lower inflation, the assets that perform well are typically those more sensitive to economic growth, lower interest rates, and less inflationary pressure. Here are some of the likely winners in that scenario: 1. Grow