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2022-12-15

Shorting is it? 😂

Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop

2022-12-13

Tesla's Fundamentals are good.. Why would you suggest to sell it.?! Just bec of twitter? That's just temporary...

7 EV Stocks to Sell Before They Dead End

2022-12-13

More buying opportunity to average down...

Tesla Stock Ends at Fresh Two-Year Low, Bucking Broader Market Trend

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On the one hand, it has strong historical growth and adominant position in its market. On the other hand, it is veryexpensive (going by valuation multiples) and its founder is constantly getting in trouble for his provocative statements. In some cases, Musk has faced legal consequences for things he has said; for example, he once had to pay a $20 million fine for claiming that he had secured funding to take Tesla private.</p><p>This time around, Twitter is what’s getting people worried about their Tesla stock holdings. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was controversial in itself, now Elon musk is raising eyebrows for his posts on the platform. It would be hard to directly quote Musk’s recent posts without running afoul of Seeking Alpha’s political comment guidelines, so I will simply leave links to them off-platform here and here. Suffice it to say, the comments made some people very,<i>very</i> upset.</p><p>Shortly after Elon posted his two notorious Tweets, Tesla stock fell 6.3% in a single trading day. There was little material news about TSLA on the day that crash happened; the most recent big story was a bullish one about a surge in deliveries from Tesla Shanghai. Most likely, Musk’s tweets caused the selloff. Given the lack of other negative news, it’s the default assumption.</p><p>For me personally, nothing Musk is doing makes Tesla an “avoid at any price” stock. Tesla has great brand recognition, strong growth, and just recently got its tax credits back. The stock has a lot of things going for it. However, Musk’s risk taking is a serious enough concern for me to demand some kind of discount.</p><p>In past articles, I got fair value estimates for Tesla well above the current stock price. However, I never rated the stock any higher than a hold; in one article I rated it a sell. The reason for that is the immense uncertainty that Tesla is subject to. Whether it’s Musk’s Tweets or the federal investigation of the Twitter deal, there are many risk factors, some of which could impede the growth that makes the stock appear to have such a great future. For this reason, I’d want to see a price of $75 or lower before I’d buy the stock, even though I get value estimates above $200 when I value it by conventional means.</p><h2>My Past Coverage of Tesla</h2><p>In past articles, I’ve usually found Tesla to be worth something like $200-$300, going by a combination of multiples and discounted cash flows. In some cases, those prices were above the market price, but I never gave the stock a ‘buy’ rating, because I felt there were too many risks to the growth story. Some examples of valuations I arrived at include:</p><ul><li><p>$338 in “Tesla: the $4 Trillion Price Target is a Red Flag.”</p></li><li><p>$879 ($293 in post-split terms) in “Tesla: the EV Tax Credit is a Huge Catalyst.”</p></li><li><p>A sell rating (no specific price target) in “Long BYD, Short Tesla: a Great Tactical Pair Trade.”</p></li></ul><p>Now, you might wonder why I keep rating Tesla ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ when my models always give it upside. The reason has to do with how discounted cash flow models are constructed. You have to estimate future cash flows in order to make the math work, there’s no way around it. Tesla’s historical growth is extremely strong, and even if you cut the future growth estimates to half or a third of the actual historical growth, you still end up with pretty high price targets. In some of my previous articles, I cut Tesla’s future growth estimate down to the projected growth in the EV industry, which is a lot slower than Tesla’s actual growth rate. It still resulted in upside.</p><p>Still, I can’t rate the stock a buy, because I do think the risks here are serious enough to potentially end Tesla’s growth streak.</p><p>The first is demographics. Musk’s recent Twitter posts haven’t been received well by the demographics that tend to buy electric cars. Recently, Musk appeared on stage at a Dave Chapelle performance in San Francisco–the city with the second highest number of EV chargers in the U.S.--and was ‘booed’ by some audience members. This evidence might seem anecdotal, but it is known that Musk has low approval ratings in EV-friendly states like Oregon. Combining hard data with news reports, one gets the sense that Elon Musk isn’t being received well in States that are pushing green energy.</p><p>EV ownership in the U.S. skews toward affluent, educated, progressive-leaning individuals. Tesla has more conservative customers than other EV companies do, but it still has more democrat than republican owners. Many commentators believe that Musk’s recent Twitter posts have been designed to court conservative support. It is known that Musk is popular among conservatives, and he seems to be trying to shore up that support, but the problem is that Tesla’s customers come from other groups.</p><p>It’s not clear that Musk has angered enough people to get large numbers of them abandoning Tesla. A few people have said that they would buy Chevy Bolts in retaliation for Musk’s Twitter posts, but sales forecasts suggest there aren’t that many of them. By all accounts, Tesla’s sales are growing, not declining. Still, there is a possibility of Elon Musk alienating his core customer base; if he does so, we’d expect Tesla’s sales to take a hit.</p><p>There’s no shortage of companies selling electric cars. We’ve got European companies like <b>Volkswagen</b> (OTCPK:VWAGY), American companies like <b>General Motors</b> (GM) and Chinese companies like <b>NIO</b> (NIO) building EVs now. If the people who are upset about Musk’s job at Twitter wanted to ditch Tesla, they could do so. So a loss of sales is in principle a potential risk factor.</p><p>There’s also Musk’s selling of Twitter stock. As a long-term value investor, this does not really count as a risk to me, but it is a risk to those taking short term positions. Musk had to sell Tesla stock to put up collateral for the Twitter loans. He has sold at least $16.4 billion worth of TSLA, or 3.15% of the float. Insider selling of that magnitude can push a stock’s price downward, as stock prices are a function of supply and demand. If you don’t own Tesla stock now, and want to take a long-term position in the future, this is only good news, but for somebody who already owns Tesla stock, with no plans to average down, it’s very bad. If you already own Tesla and are hoping to get back to purchase prices well above $200, you might be waiting a while. Musk is rattling investor confidence and he may have more sales planned. If you don’t own Tesla stock, or own a little and plan on averaging down, then read on, because in the next section I explain why Tesla stock would be genuinely interesting at $75.</p><h2>Why Tesla Would Be Interesting at $75</h2><p>In previous sections, I explained why Tesla, with moderate growth assumptions, appeared to be worth $200 or more. In a DCF model it only takes about 20% growth in free cash flow for TSLA to come out with a fair value estimate well above $200. However, two things have to be kept in mind:</p><ol><li><p>Interest rates are rising.</p></li><li><p>There are genuine risks to Tesla’s operating performance.</p></li></ol><p>Interest rates going up takes a bite out of the value of cash flows from any company, and Elon Musk’s political commentary puts Tesla’s U.S. revenue at risk. So, a new Tesla model is needed to account for the risks. In past models, I discounted TSLA stock at just 8%. That’s a discount rate that includes a risk premium, but not a very large one. Today, Tesla is in the political crosshairs to an extent not seen when I wrote my last Tesla article, so more risk needs to be accounted for.</p><p>There are two ways to do this:</p><ol><li><p>Simply run one of my previous models at a far higher discount rate.</p></li><li><p>Lower the growth assumption.</p></li></ol><p>The first method is pretty straightforward. If you take my previous model that got a $338 FV estimate, and up the discount rate to 15%, you get a $111 price target. I think buying Tesla at that level would be basically sensible, but it helps to go even stricter still. Remember: when you buy TSLA shares, you’re paying for a lot of future growth. The nature of a ‘financial risk’ is that it can cause growth to disappear, and profits to turn into losses, so we need to account for those scenarios.</p><p>I do not think we need to model for a scenario where Tesla’s growth becomes negative. Tesla sells a lot of cars in China, a country that is not plugged into U.S. social media discourse, and where Elon Musk’s private behavior probably isn’t a concern for very many people. The U.S. market position does seem to be at risk, so we can model for a scenario where growth declines to 0%, based on current trends continuing in China while U.S. sales decline. Note that I don’t think this scenario will actually occur, it just helps to model worst case scenarios.</p><p>Under zero growth assumptions, we can simply value TSLA in terms of terminal value. This is where you discount free cash flow at a chosen discount rate. The range we get for Tesla, using 3.5% (no risk premium) and 15% (extremely large risk premium) is shown below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f7a6ae9f247b5aac92b75634596020\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"138\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, to sum up, our total range of values under, when we account for immense risk, goes from:</p><ul><li><p>$19.33 (high discount rate, no growth).</p></li><li><p>$111 (high discount rate, high growth).</p></li></ul><p>The mean of the high and low values is $65. If you want to be extremely conservative, aim for $65 before buying Tesla. Personally, I’d probably buy at $75, because the worst-case scenarios I’m modelling for here are rather extreme. Most likely Tesla will do better than 0% growth. But in an environment of rising rates, it pays to play it safe. For the most risk averse investors, Tesla does not appear to be a buy.</p><p>This article is written by Growth at a Good Price for reference only. Please note the risks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-15 14:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.I've covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291571778","content_text":"SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.I've covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $250 on the assumption that the company keeps growing fairly quickly.Nevertheless, I always rated it 'hold' because I thought that the uncertainty surrounding the company undermined any thesis based on future growth assumptions.In this article, I explain why I'd buy Tesla at $75, a 53.4% drop, even though its financials and growth trajectory would seem to suggest it's worth more than that.Dimitrios KambourisTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the toughest stocks out there to analyze. On the one hand, it has strong historical growth and adominant position in its market. On the other hand, it is veryexpensive (going by valuation multiples) and its founder is constantly getting in trouble for his provocative statements. In some cases, Musk has faced legal consequences for things he has said; for example, he once had to pay a $20 million fine for claiming that he had secured funding to take Tesla private.This time around, Twitter is what’s getting people worried about their Tesla stock holdings. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was controversial in itself, now Elon musk is raising eyebrows for his posts on the platform. It would be hard to directly quote Musk’s recent posts without running afoul of Seeking Alpha’s political comment guidelines, so I will simply leave links to them off-platform here and here. Suffice it to say, the comments made some people very,very upset.Shortly after Elon posted his two notorious Tweets, Tesla stock fell 6.3% in a single trading day. There was little material news about TSLA on the day that crash happened; the most recent big story was a bullish one about a surge in deliveries from Tesla Shanghai. Most likely, Musk’s tweets caused the selloff. Given the lack of other negative news, it’s the default assumption.For me personally, nothing Musk is doing makes Tesla an “avoid at any price” stock. Tesla has great brand recognition, strong growth, and just recently got its tax credits back. The stock has a lot of things going for it. However, Musk’s risk taking is a serious enough concern for me to demand some kind of discount.In past articles, I got fair value estimates for Tesla well above the current stock price. However, I never rated the stock any higher than a hold; in one article I rated it a sell. The reason for that is the immense uncertainty that Tesla is subject to. Whether it’s Musk’s Tweets or the federal investigation of the Twitter deal, there are many risk factors, some of which could impede the growth that makes the stock appear to have such a great future. For this reason, I’d want to see a price of $75 or lower before I’d buy the stock, even though I get value estimates above $200 when I value it by conventional means.My Past Coverage of TeslaIn past articles, I’ve usually found Tesla to be worth something like $200-$300, going by a combination of multiples and discounted cash flows. In some cases, those prices were above the market price, but I never gave the stock a ‘buy’ rating, because I felt there were too many risks to the growth story. Some examples of valuations I arrived at include:$338 in “Tesla: the $4 Trillion Price Target is a Red Flag.”$879 ($293 in post-split terms) in “Tesla: the EV Tax Credit is a Huge Catalyst.”A sell rating (no specific price target) in “Long BYD, Short Tesla: a Great Tactical Pair Trade.”Now, you might wonder why I keep rating Tesla ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ when my models always give it upside. The reason has to do with how discounted cash flow models are constructed. You have to estimate future cash flows in order to make the math work, there’s no way around it. Tesla’s historical growth is extremely strong, and even if you cut the future growth estimates to half or a third of the actual historical growth, you still end up with pretty high price targets. In some of my previous articles, I cut Tesla’s future growth estimate down to the projected growth in the EV industry, which is a lot slower than Tesla’s actual growth rate. It still resulted in upside.Still, I can’t rate the stock a buy, because I do think the risks here are serious enough to potentially end Tesla’s growth streak.The first is demographics. Musk’s recent Twitter posts haven’t been received well by the demographics that tend to buy electric cars. Recently, Musk appeared on stage at a Dave Chapelle performance in San Francisco–the city with the second highest number of EV chargers in the U.S.--and was ‘booed’ by some audience members. This evidence might seem anecdotal, but it is known that Musk has low approval ratings in EV-friendly states like Oregon. Combining hard data with news reports, one gets the sense that Elon Musk isn’t being received well in States that are pushing green energy.EV ownership in the U.S. skews toward affluent, educated, progressive-leaning individuals. Tesla has more conservative customers than other EV companies do, but it still has more democrat than republican owners. Many commentators believe that Musk’s recent Twitter posts have been designed to court conservative support. It is known that Musk is popular among conservatives, and he seems to be trying to shore up that support, but the problem is that Tesla’s customers come from other groups.It’s not clear that Musk has angered enough people to get large numbers of them abandoning Tesla. A few people have said that they would buy Chevy Bolts in retaliation for Musk’s Twitter posts, but sales forecasts suggest there aren’t that many of them. By all accounts, Tesla’s sales are growing, not declining. Still, there is a possibility of Elon Musk alienating his core customer base; if he does so, we’d expect Tesla’s sales to take a hit.There’s no shortage of companies selling electric cars. We’ve got European companies like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), American companies like General Motors (GM) and Chinese companies like NIO (NIO) building EVs now. If the people who are upset about Musk’s job at Twitter wanted to ditch Tesla, they could do so. So a loss of sales is in principle a potential risk factor.There’s also Musk’s selling of Twitter stock. As a long-term value investor, this does not really count as a risk to me, but it is a risk to those taking short term positions. Musk had to sell Tesla stock to put up collateral for the Twitter loans. He has sold at least $16.4 billion worth of TSLA, or 3.15% of the float. Insider selling of that magnitude can push a stock’s price downward, as stock prices are a function of supply and demand. If you don’t own Tesla stock now, and want to take a long-term position in the future, this is only good news, but for somebody who already owns Tesla stock, with no plans to average down, it’s very bad. If you already own Tesla and are hoping to get back to purchase prices well above $200, you might be waiting a while. Musk is rattling investor confidence and he may have more sales planned. If you don’t own Tesla stock, or own a little and plan on averaging down, then read on, because in the next section I explain why Tesla stock would be genuinely interesting at $75.Why Tesla Would Be Interesting at $75In previous sections, I explained why Tesla, with moderate growth assumptions, appeared to be worth $200 or more. In a DCF model it only takes about 20% growth in free cash flow for TSLA to come out with a fair value estimate well above $200. However, two things have to be kept in mind:Interest rates are rising.There are genuine risks to Tesla’s operating performance.Interest rates going up takes a bite out of the value of cash flows from any company, and Elon Musk’s political commentary puts Tesla’s U.S. revenue at risk. So, a new Tesla model is needed to account for the risks. In past models, I discounted TSLA stock at just 8%. That’s a discount rate that includes a risk premium, but not a very large one. Today, Tesla is in the political crosshairs to an extent not seen when I wrote my last Tesla article, so more risk needs to be accounted for.There are two ways to do this:Simply run one of my previous models at a far higher discount rate.Lower the growth assumption.The first method is pretty straightforward. If you take my previous model that got a $338 FV estimate, and up the discount rate to 15%, you get a $111 price target. I think buying Tesla at that level would be basically sensible, but it helps to go even stricter still. Remember: when you buy TSLA shares, you’re paying for a lot of future growth. The nature of a ‘financial risk’ is that it can cause growth to disappear, and profits to turn into losses, so we need to account for those scenarios.I do not think we need to model for a scenario where Tesla’s growth becomes negative. Tesla sells a lot of cars in China, a country that is not plugged into U.S. social media discourse, and where Elon Musk’s private behavior probably isn’t a concern for very many people. The U.S. market position does seem to be at risk, so we can model for a scenario where growth declines to 0%, based on current trends continuing in China while U.S. sales decline. Note that I don’t think this scenario will actually occur, it just helps to model worst case scenarios.Under zero growth assumptions, we can simply value TSLA in terms of terminal value. This is where you discount free cash flow at a chosen discount rate. The range we get for Tesla, using 3.5% (no risk premium) and 15% (extremely large risk premium) is shown below.So, to sum up, our total range of values under, when we account for immense risk, goes from:$19.33 (high discount rate, no growth).$111 (high discount rate, high growth).The mean of the high and low values is $65. If you want to be extremely conservative, aim for $65 before buying Tesla. Personally, I’d probably buy at $75, because the worst-case scenarios I’m modelling for here are rather extreme. Most likely Tesla will do better than 0% growth. But in an environment of rising rates, it pays to play it safe. For the most risk averse investors, Tesla does not appear to be a buy.This article is written by Growth at a Good Price for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921098489,"gmtCreate":1670932512442,"gmtModify":1676538461673,"author":{"id":"4109672260434280","authorId":"4109672260434280","name":"PJC16","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a0538771998873536d812c761a9ee73b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109672260434280","authorIdStr":"4109672260434280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla's Fundamentals are good.. Why would you suggest to sell it.?! Just bec of twitter? That's just temporary...&nbsp;","listText":"Tesla's Fundamentals are good.. Why would you suggest to sell it.?! Just bec of twitter? That's just temporary...&nbsp;","text":"Tesla's Fundamentals are good.. Why would you suggest to sell it.?! Just bec of twitter? That's just temporary...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921098489","repostId":"2290787566","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2290787566","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670930186,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2290787566?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-13 19:16","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"7 EV Stocks to Sell Before They Dead End","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290787566","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Substantial downside risk remains with these seven EV stocks to sell.ChargePoint (CHPT): This EV cha","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Substantial downside risk remains with these seven EV stocks to sell.</li><li><b>ChargePoint</b> (<b>CHPT</b>): This EV charging company is likely to continue to operate in the red.</li><li><b>Canoo</b> (<b>GOEV</b>): This cash-starved EV startup will likely sputter due to heavy shareholder dilution.</li><li><b>Hyzon Motors</b> (<b>HYZN</b>): Past controversy and continued poor operating results makes this another EV startup to sell.</li><li><b>Lucid Group</b> (<b>LCID</b>): The “story” behind this former hot stock continues to unravel.</li><li><b>Nio</b> (<b>NIO</b>): The China-based electric vehicle maker’s latest rally could soon reverse course.</li><li><b>Quantumscape</b> (<b>QS</b>): Time is not on the side of this early-stage EV battery technology company.</li><li><b>Tesla</b> (<b>TSLA</b>): Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover could come at the expense of the top dog in the EV space.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0ca69539b0e05208badf216496b864c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Shutterstock</p><p>Like other speculative growth plays, most electric vehicle, or EV stocks, peaked in price at some point in 2021. Since then, most companies operating in this fast-growing sector have declined substantially in 2022. That said, while it may appear to some investors that this is a sector worth considering as it may have bottomed out, plenty of names in this space still belong in the “EV stocks to sell” category.</p><p>Indeed, despite what many have called a bubble in the EV sector seemingly popping, scores of publicly-traded electric vehicle stocks continue to trade at extremely high valuations. Along with rich valuations, these vehicle electrification plays are also facing deteriorating fundamentals.</p><p>Growth is falling short of expectations, milestones aren’t being met, and the hope and hype that sent this sector to “the moon” during the pandemic era continues to dissipate.</p><p>Thus, investors shouldn’t get taken for a ride with these overpriced EV stocks to sell. With weakening fundamentals, there’s more room for most of these stocks to fall. Thus, I think investors want to hit the brakes with these EV companies right now.</p><table border=\"1\"><tbody><tr><td><b>CHPT</b></td><td>ChargePoint</td><td>$11.06</td></tr><tr><td><b>GOEV</b></td><td>Canoo</td><td>$1.35</td></tr><tr><td><b>HYZN</b></td><td>Hyzon Motors</td><td>$1.62</td></tr><tr><td><b>LCID</b></td><td>Lucid Group</td><td>$8.37</td></tr><tr><td><b>NIO</b></td><td>Nio</td><td>$12.98</td></tr><tr><td><b>QS</b></td><td>QuantumScape</td><td>$7.04</td></tr><tr><td><b>TSLA</b></td><td>Tesla</td><td>$180.49</td></tr></tbody></table><h2>ChargePoint (CHPT)</h2><p>There was a lot of buzz surrounding EV charging solutions provider <b>ChargePoint</b> (NYSE:<b>CHPT</b>) in the lead up to its debut in the public markets via a special purpose acquisition company (or SPAC) merger in February 2021.</p><p>In fact, even before the SPAC merger closed, shares in CHPT’s “blank-check” predecessor, <b>Switchback Energy</b>, surged to levels that were nearly five-times higher than its original SPAC price ($10 per share). Since then, however, CHPT stock has all but fallen back to this initial SPAC price, changing hands today for around $11 per share.</p><p>Still, I wouldn’t assume that the $10 level is any sort of floor for ChargePoint. Although the company reported 93% revenue growth last quarter, it remains far away from reaching profitability any time soon. Expected to burn through half of its cash position over the next twelve months, CHPT stock may continue to slide lower, as unprofitable growth stocks continue to fall out of favor.</p><h2>Canoo (GOEV)</h2><p><b>Canoo</b> (NASDAQ:<b>GOEV</b>) shares have taken a 83.5% haircut so far in 2022, but this early-stage maker of electric delivery vehicles has actually made major progress throughout this year. Namely, the company has received some large orders for its vehicles from high-profile customers, including the likes of <b>Walmart</b> (NYSE:<b>WMT</b>).</p><p>So, why has GOEV stock taken such a big dive since January? Blame it on shareholder dilution. As Louis Navellier discussed back in October, this cash-starved startup needs capital in order to fulfill these orders. The company has continued to raise this cash through the dilutive sale of new shares.</p><p>Based on its latest Securities and Exchange Commission (or SEC) filings, it’s clear that Canoo continues to lean on this financing source. Future equity raises will limit how much GOEV stock will be ultimately worth on a per-share basis (if it ever becomes profitable). Thus, for long-term investors, this is a dilution story that’s worth avoiding, as a further sharp decline in price may be in store.</p><h2>Hyzon Motors (HYZN)</h2><p>A rich valuation and poor fundamentals aren’t the only reason why <b>Hyzon Motors</b> (NASDAQ:<b>HYZN</b>) is among the top EV stocks to sell. The question of whether things are really on the up-and-up with this company is another big concern as well.</p><p>This year, HYZN stock was one of several stocks hit by scandal and controversy. Not only did Hyzon find itself the target of an SEC investigation, but the company itself stated that past financial statements “cannot be relied upon.” Additionally, despite releasing new figures, these more recently-released numbers aren’t exactly much to get excited about.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2022 (the last period in which HYZN has provided quarterly figures), the company reported a $26.8 million operating loss, on just $356,000 in revenue. With the situation possibly getting materially worse since then, going against the grain and buying HYZN stock today appears to be a move that will ultimately end in tears.</p><h2>Lucid Group (LCID)</h2><p>A year ago, <b>Lucid Group</b> (NASDAQ:<b>LCID</b>) appeared poised to eventually grab a large share of the premium EV market. Flash forward to today, and the company’s prospects have diminished considerably. Initially, due to production headwinds, Lucid announced some significantly reduced production targets.</p><p>More recently, the company slashed its targets due to quarterly results falling short of expectations, and a drop in reservations for its vehicles. Accordingly, while LCID stock has plunged from the $40 level to the single-digits following this year’s developments, an additional pullback may lie ahead.</p><p>In the coming quarters, if Lucid fails to start meeting/beating expectations, it’ll be difficult for the company to maintain its now-lowered, but still-lofty valuation. The stock continues to trade at a high price-to-sales ratio (nearly 20-times). Although possibly worth another look if the company ends up cratering to penny stock price levels (under $5 per share), for now, I think passing on LCID is the best move.</p><h2>Nio (NIO)</h2><p>Zooming over 30% higher in the past month, many investors may think <b>Nio</b> (NYSE:<b>NIO</b>) has once again become one of the EV stocks to buy. However, I don’t think it’s time to dive in. This China-based electric vehicle maker remains one of the top EV stocks to sell, as this latest rally could soon reverse course.</p><p>Sure, the big jump in Nio’s stock price over the last month has been driven by promising news. The company reported a record number of vehicle deliveries in November. China also appears keen on easing on its “Zero Covid” policy, which has hit both production and demand for Nio’s vehicles.</p><p>Even so, as one <i>Seeking Alpha</i> commentator recently argued, this big increase in November may be due to China’s EV tax incentives expiring this year. If this proves true, and sales growth sputters again starting in 2023, shares could return to sub-$10 per share prices.</p><h2>QuantumScape (QS)</h2><p>After its SPAC merger in late-2020, EV battery technology startup <b>Quantumscape</b> (NYSE:<b>QS</b>) skyrocketed to prices well over $100 per share. Presently, investors can buy this same stock at around $7 per share.</p><p>That said, those who think this means QS stock is now in oversold territory should think otherwise. Shares in this company, which is at work developing lithium solid state batteries (or SSBs) for electric vehicles, may keep dropping, as time is not on its side.</p><p>At least, that’s the view of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>’s Adam Jonas. In November, the analyst downgraded shares from “hold” to “sell,” and lowered his price target from $12 to $4 per share. This downgrade appears to be mostly due to the fact that QuantumScape’s timeline to commercialization is far too long. Years away from reaching its next commercialization hurdle, rising interest rates and high operating losses are likely to apply more pressure to the stock.</p><h2>Tesla (TSLA)</h2><p><b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:<b>TSLA</b>) is still not only the most valuable EV stock by market cap, but also the most valuable automaker by market cap (for now). However, TSLA has fallen more than 50% from its all-time high, and could be at risk of falling further.</p><p>Globally, competition in the EV sector is heating up. Incumbent automakers and “Tesla killers” alike in the U.S. are moving quickly to grab their piece of the electric vehicle market. Tesla could also be facing big issues in China, where it is rumored to be pulling back on production.</p><p>Worse yet, with CEO Elon Musk preoccupied with his latest personal acquisition (<b>Twitter</b>), these factors could have even more of a negative impact than they would if Musk were fully focused on keeping this EV powerhouse at the top of the heap. Investors may want to follow the hedge fund community’s lead, and put TSLA stock in the EV stocks to sell bucket.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 EV Stocks to Sell Before They Dead End</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 EV Stocks to Sell Before They Dead End\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-13 19:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/12/7-ev-stocks-to-sell-before-they-dead-end/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Substantial downside risk remains with these seven EV stocks to sell.ChargePoint (CHPT): This EV charging company is likely to continue to operate in the red.Canoo (GOEV): This cash-starved EV startup...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/12/7-ev-stocks-to-sell-before-they-dead-end/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","NIO":"蔚来","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4542":"充电桩","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc.","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","QS":"Quantumscape Corp.","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","WMT":"沃尔玛","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","HYZN":"Hyzon Motors Inc.","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","BK4540":"固态电池","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4509":"腾讯概念","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/12/7-ev-stocks-to-sell-before-they-dead-end/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290787566","content_text":"Substantial downside risk remains with these seven EV stocks to sell.ChargePoint (CHPT): This EV charging company is likely to continue to operate in the red.Canoo (GOEV): This cash-starved EV startup will likely sputter due to heavy shareholder dilution.Hyzon Motors (HYZN): Past controversy and continued poor operating results makes this another EV startup to sell.Lucid Group (LCID): The “story” behind this former hot stock continues to unravel.Nio (NIO): The China-based electric vehicle maker’s latest rally could soon reverse course.Quantumscape (QS): Time is not on the side of this early-stage EV battery technology company.Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover could come at the expense of the top dog in the EV space.Source: ShutterstockLike other speculative growth plays, most electric vehicle, or EV stocks, peaked in price at some point in 2021. Since then, most companies operating in this fast-growing sector have declined substantially in 2022. That said, while it may appear to some investors that this is a sector worth considering as it may have bottomed out, plenty of names in this space still belong in the “EV stocks to sell” category.Indeed, despite what many have called a bubble in the EV sector seemingly popping, scores of publicly-traded electric vehicle stocks continue to trade at extremely high valuations. Along with rich valuations, these vehicle electrification plays are also facing deteriorating fundamentals.Growth is falling short of expectations, milestones aren’t being met, and the hope and hype that sent this sector to “the moon” during the pandemic era continues to dissipate.Thus, investors shouldn’t get taken for a ride with these overpriced EV stocks to sell. With weakening fundamentals, there’s more room for most of these stocks to fall. Thus, I think investors want to hit the brakes with these EV companies right now.CHPTChargePoint$11.06GOEVCanoo$1.35HYZNHyzon Motors$1.62LCIDLucid Group$8.37NIONio$12.98QSQuantumScape$7.04TSLATesla$180.49ChargePoint (CHPT)There was a lot of buzz surrounding EV charging solutions provider ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) in the lead up to its debut in the public markets via a special purpose acquisition company (or SPAC) merger in February 2021.In fact, even before the SPAC merger closed, shares in CHPT’s “blank-check” predecessor, Switchback Energy, surged to levels that were nearly five-times higher than its original SPAC price ($10 per share). Since then, however, CHPT stock has all but fallen back to this initial SPAC price, changing hands today for around $11 per share.Still, I wouldn’t assume that the $10 level is any sort of floor for ChargePoint. Although the company reported 93% revenue growth last quarter, it remains far away from reaching profitability any time soon. Expected to burn through half of its cash position over the next twelve months, CHPT stock may continue to slide lower, as unprofitable growth stocks continue to fall out of favor.Canoo (GOEV)Canoo (NASDAQ:GOEV) shares have taken a 83.5% haircut so far in 2022, but this early-stage maker of electric delivery vehicles has actually made major progress throughout this year. Namely, the company has received some large orders for its vehicles from high-profile customers, including the likes of Walmart (NYSE:WMT).So, why has GOEV stock taken such a big dive since January? Blame it on shareholder dilution. As Louis Navellier discussed back in October, this cash-starved startup needs capital in order to fulfill these orders. The company has continued to raise this cash through the dilutive sale of new shares.Based on its latest Securities and Exchange Commission (or SEC) filings, it’s clear that Canoo continues to lean on this financing source. Future equity raises will limit how much GOEV stock will be ultimately worth on a per-share basis (if it ever becomes profitable). Thus, for long-term investors, this is a dilution story that’s worth avoiding, as a further sharp decline in price may be in store.Hyzon Motors (HYZN)A rich valuation and poor fundamentals aren’t the only reason why Hyzon Motors (NASDAQ:HYZN) is among the top EV stocks to sell. The question of whether things are really on the up-and-up with this company is another big concern as well.This year, HYZN stock was one of several stocks hit by scandal and controversy. Not only did Hyzon find itself the target of an SEC investigation, but the company itself stated that past financial statements “cannot be relied upon.” Additionally, despite releasing new figures, these more recently-released numbers aren’t exactly much to get excited about.In the first quarter of 2022 (the last period in which HYZN has provided quarterly figures), the company reported a $26.8 million operating loss, on just $356,000 in revenue. With the situation possibly getting materially worse since then, going against the grain and buying HYZN stock today appears to be a move that will ultimately end in tears.Lucid Group (LCID)A year ago, Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) appeared poised to eventually grab a large share of the premium EV market. Flash forward to today, and the company’s prospects have diminished considerably. Initially, due to production headwinds, Lucid announced some significantly reduced production targets.More recently, the company slashed its targets due to quarterly results falling short of expectations, and a drop in reservations for its vehicles. Accordingly, while LCID stock has plunged from the $40 level to the single-digits following this year’s developments, an additional pullback may lie ahead.In the coming quarters, if Lucid fails to start meeting/beating expectations, it’ll be difficult for the company to maintain its now-lowered, but still-lofty valuation. The stock continues to trade at a high price-to-sales ratio (nearly 20-times). Although possibly worth another look if the company ends up cratering to penny stock price levels (under $5 per share), for now, I think passing on LCID is the best move.Nio (NIO)Zooming over 30% higher in the past month, many investors may think Nio (NYSE:NIO) has once again become one of the EV stocks to buy. However, I don’t think it’s time to dive in. This China-based electric vehicle maker remains one of the top EV stocks to sell, as this latest rally could soon reverse course.Sure, the big jump in Nio’s stock price over the last month has been driven by promising news. The company reported a record number of vehicle deliveries in November. China also appears keen on easing on its “Zero Covid” policy, which has hit both production and demand for Nio’s vehicles.Even so, as one Seeking Alpha commentator recently argued, this big increase in November may be due to China’s EV tax incentives expiring this year. If this proves true, and sales growth sputters again starting in 2023, shares could return to sub-$10 per share prices.QuantumScape (QS)After its SPAC merger in late-2020, EV battery technology startup Quantumscape (NYSE:QS) skyrocketed to prices well over $100 per share. Presently, investors can buy this same stock at around $7 per share.That said, those who think this means QS stock is now in oversold territory should think otherwise. Shares in this company, which is at work developing lithium solid state batteries (or SSBs) for electric vehicles, may keep dropping, as time is not on its side.At least, that’s the view of Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas. In November, the analyst downgraded shares from “hold” to “sell,” and lowered his price target from $12 to $4 per share. This downgrade appears to be mostly due to the fact that QuantumScape’s timeline to commercialization is far too long. Years away from reaching its next commercialization hurdle, rising interest rates and high operating losses are likely to apply more pressure to the stock.Tesla (TSLA)Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is still not only the most valuable EV stock by market cap, but also the most valuable automaker by market cap (for now). However, TSLA has fallen more than 50% from its all-time high, and could be at risk of falling further.Globally, competition in the EV sector is heating up. Incumbent automakers and “Tesla killers” alike in the U.S. are moving quickly to grab their piece of the electric vehicle market. Tesla could also be facing big issues in China, where it is rumored to be pulling back on production.Worse yet, with CEO Elon Musk preoccupied with his latest personal acquisition (Twitter), these factors could have even more of a negative impact than they would if Musk were fully focused on keeping this EV powerhouse at the top of the heap. Investors may want to follow the hedge fund community’s lead, and put TSLA stock in the EV stocks to sell bucket.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923796888,"gmtCreate":1670903280044,"gmtModify":1676538457542,"author":{"id":"4109672260434280","authorId":"4109672260434280","name":"PJC16","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a0538771998873536d812c761a9ee73b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109672260434280","authorIdStr":"4109672260434280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More buying opportunity to average down...&nbsp;","listText":"More buying opportunity to average down...&nbsp;","text":"More buying opportunity to average down...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923796888","repostId":"1132120188","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132120188","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670899817,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132120188?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-13 10:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Ends at Fresh Two-Year Low, Bucking Broader Market Trend","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132120188","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Tesla stock has lost 53% this yearAn aerial view of Tesla’s factory in California in October. JUSTIN","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tesla stock has lost 53% this year</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608f24068d568f7daf65ef07e4bfe50c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>An aerial view of Tesla’s factory in California in October. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>Tesla Inc. stock on Monday ended at a fresh two-year low, going against broader market strength and as December losses look poised to match November’s and October’s double-digit declines.</p><p>Tesla stock fell 6.3% to $167.82, its lowest settlement since Nov. 20, 2020, and a new 52-week low. Tesla shares have notched monthly losses of about 14% in December, which would follow 14% drops in October as well as November.</p><p>Investors remain concerned about Tesla’s production, particularly in China, even though the company has denied earlier reports that suggested production cuts in the world’s biggest auto market.</p><p>The EV maker launched its electric commercial truck on Dec. 1, but the Tesla Semi’s start of production failed to act as a catalyst for the stock, which has fallen five out of the seven most recent sessions.</p><p>Last week, one of the last remaining Tesla “bears” called attention to Tesla’s recent price cuts on vehicles sold in the U.S. and China, saying they pointed to a possible demand problem that could go into 2023 and cut down on the electric-vehicle maker’s margins.</p><p>Tesla stock has lost 53% so far this year, compared with losses of around 16% for the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p>If the trend holds, 2022 would be Tesla shares’ worst yearly performance on record. The stock has fallen nearly 60% from its record close of $409.97 hit on Nov. 4, 2021, and is down 58% from its 52-week closing high of $399.93 on Jan. 3.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Ends at Fresh Two-Year Low, Bucking Broader Market Trend</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Ends at Fresh Two-Year Low, Bucking Broader Market Trend\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-13 10:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-ends-at-fresh-two-year-low-bucking-broader-market-trend-11670884933?mod=home-page%E3%80%91><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla stock has lost 53% this yearAn aerial view of Tesla’s factory in California in October. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGESTesla Inc. stock on Monday ended at a fresh two-year low, going against ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-ends-at-fresh-two-year-low-bucking-broader-market-trend-11670884933?mod=home-page%E3%80%91\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-ends-at-fresh-two-year-low-bucking-broader-market-trend-11670884933?mod=home-page%E3%80%91","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132120188","content_text":"Tesla stock has lost 53% this yearAn aerial view of Tesla’s factory in California in October. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGESTesla Inc. stock on Monday ended at a fresh two-year low, going against broader market strength and as December losses look poised to match November’s and October’s double-digit declines.Tesla stock fell 6.3% to $167.82, its lowest settlement since Nov. 20, 2020, and a new 52-week low. Tesla shares have notched monthly losses of about 14% in December, which would follow 14% drops in October as well as November.Investors remain concerned about Tesla’s production, particularly in China, even though the company has denied earlier reports that suggested production cuts in the world’s biggest auto market.The EV maker launched its electric commercial truck on Dec. 1, but the Tesla Semi’s start of production failed to act as a catalyst for the stock, which has fallen five out of the seven most recent sessions.Last week, one of the last remaining Tesla “bears” called attention to Tesla’s recent price cuts on vehicles sold in the U.S. and China, saying they pointed to a possible demand problem that could go into 2023 and cut down on the electric-vehicle maker’s margins.Tesla stock has lost 53% so far this year, compared with losses of around 16% for the S&P 500 index.If the trend holds, 2022 would be Tesla shares’ worst yearly performance on record. The stock has fallen nearly 60% from its record close of $409.97 hit on Nov. 4, 2021, and is down 58% from its 52-week closing high of $399.93 on Jan. 3.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9921098489,"gmtCreate":1670932512442,"gmtModify":1676538461673,"author":{"id":"4109672260434280","authorId":"4109672260434280","name":"PJC16","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a0538771998873536d812c761a9ee73b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109672260434280","authorIdStr":"4109672260434280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla's Fundamentals are good.. Why would you suggest to sell it.?! Just bec of twitter? That's just temporary...&nbsp;","listText":"Tesla's Fundamentals are good.. Why would you suggest to sell it.?! Just bec of twitter? That's just temporary...&nbsp;","text":"Tesla's Fundamentals are good.. Why would you suggest to sell it.?! Just bec of twitter? That's just temporary...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921098489","repostId":"2290787566","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923796888,"gmtCreate":1670903280044,"gmtModify":1676538457542,"author":{"id":"4109672260434280","authorId":"4109672260434280","name":"PJC16","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a0538771998873536d812c761a9ee73b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109672260434280","authorIdStr":"4109672260434280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More buying opportunity to average down...&nbsp;","listText":"More buying opportunity to average down...&nbsp;","text":"More buying opportunity to average down...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923796888","repostId":"1132120188","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921535544,"gmtCreate":1671085383388,"gmtModify":1676538487703,"author":{"id":"4109672260434280","authorId":"4109672260434280","name":"PJC16","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a0538771998873536d812c761a9ee73b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109672260434280","authorIdStr":"4109672260434280"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shorting is it? 😂","listText":"Shorting is it? 😂","text":"Shorting is it? 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921535544","repostId":"2291571778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2291571778","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671084084,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2291571778?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-15 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291571778","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more int","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Tesla is a stock I&#39;d be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.</li><li>I&#39;ve covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $250 on the assumption that the company keeps growing fairly quickly.</li><li>Nevertheless, I always rated it &#39;hold&#39; because I thought that the uncertainty surrounding the company undermined any thesis based on future growth assumptions.</li><li>In this article, I explain why I&#39;d buy Tesla at $75, a 53.4% drop, even though its financials and growth trajectory would seem to suggest it&#39;s worth more than that.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecebf7dbd139bf94cb13d4dce8d8da49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Dimitrios Kambouris</span></p><p><b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the toughest stocks out there to analyze. On the one hand, it has strong historical growth and adominant position in its market. On the other hand, it is veryexpensive (going by valuation multiples) and its founder is constantly getting in trouble for his provocative statements. In some cases, Musk has faced legal consequences for things he has said; for example, he once had to pay a $20 million fine for claiming that he had secured funding to take Tesla private.</p><p>This time around, Twitter is what’s getting people worried about their Tesla stock holdings. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was controversial in itself, now Elon musk is raising eyebrows for his posts on the platform. It would be hard to directly quote Musk’s recent posts without running afoul of Seeking Alpha’s political comment guidelines, so I will simply leave links to them off-platform here and here. Suffice it to say, the comments made some people very,<i>very</i> upset.</p><p>Shortly after Elon posted his two notorious Tweets, Tesla stock fell 6.3% in a single trading day. There was little material news about TSLA on the day that crash happened; the most recent big story was a bullish one about a surge in deliveries from Tesla Shanghai. Most likely, Musk’s tweets caused the selloff. Given the lack of other negative news, it’s the default assumption.</p><p>For me personally, nothing Musk is doing makes Tesla an “avoid at any price” stock. Tesla has great brand recognition, strong growth, and just recently got its tax credits back. The stock has a lot of things going for it. However, Musk’s risk taking is a serious enough concern for me to demand some kind of discount.</p><p>In past articles, I got fair value estimates for Tesla well above the current stock price. However, I never rated the stock any higher than a hold; in one article I rated it a sell. The reason for that is the immense uncertainty that Tesla is subject to. Whether it’s Musk’s Tweets or the federal investigation of the Twitter deal, there are many risk factors, some of which could impede the growth that makes the stock appear to have such a great future. For this reason, I’d want to see a price of $75 or lower before I’d buy the stock, even though I get value estimates above $200 when I value it by conventional means.</p><h2>My Past Coverage of Tesla</h2><p>In past articles, I’ve usually found Tesla to be worth something like $200-$300, going by a combination of multiples and discounted cash flows. In some cases, those prices were above the market price, but I never gave the stock a ‘buy’ rating, because I felt there were too many risks to the growth story. Some examples of valuations I arrived at include:</p><ul><li><p>$338 in “Tesla: the $4 Trillion Price Target is a Red Flag.”</p></li><li><p>$879 ($293 in post-split terms) in “Tesla: the EV Tax Credit is a Huge Catalyst.”</p></li><li><p>A sell rating (no specific price target) in “Long BYD, Short Tesla: a Great Tactical Pair Trade.”</p></li></ul><p>Now, you might wonder why I keep rating Tesla ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ when my models always give it upside. The reason has to do with how discounted cash flow models are constructed. You have to estimate future cash flows in order to make the math work, there’s no way around it. Tesla’s historical growth is extremely strong, and even if you cut the future growth estimates to half or a third of the actual historical growth, you still end up with pretty high price targets. In some of my previous articles, I cut Tesla’s future growth estimate down to the projected growth in the EV industry, which is a lot slower than Tesla’s actual growth rate. It still resulted in upside.</p><p>Still, I can’t rate the stock a buy, because I do think the risks here are serious enough to potentially end Tesla’s growth streak.</p><p>The first is demographics. Musk’s recent Twitter posts haven’t been received well by the demographics that tend to buy electric cars. Recently, Musk appeared on stage at a Dave Chapelle performance in San Francisco–the city with the second highest number of EV chargers in the U.S.--and was ‘booed’ by some audience members. This evidence might seem anecdotal, but it is known that Musk has low approval ratings in EV-friendly states like Oregon. Combining hard data with news reports, one gets the sense that Elon Musk isn’t being received well in States that are pushing green energy.</p><p>EV ownership in the U.S. skews toward affluent, educated, progressive-leaning individuals. Tesla has more conservative customers than other EV companies do, but it still has more democrat than republican owners. Many commentators believe that Musk’s recent Twitter posts have been designed to court conservative support. It is known that Musk is popular among conservatives, and he seems to be trying to shore up that support, but the problem is that Tesla’s customers come from other groups.</p><p>It’s not clear that Musk has angered enough people to get large numbers of them abandoning Tesla. A few people have said that they would buy Chevy Bolts in retaliation for Musk’s Twitter posts, but sales forecasts suggest there aren’t that many of them. By all accounts, Tesla’s sales are growing, not declining. Still, there is a possibility of Elon Musk alienating his core customer base; if he does so, we’d expect Tesla’s sales to take a hit.</p><p>There’s no shortage of companies selling electric cars. We’ve got European companies like <b>Volkswagen</b> (OTCPK:VWAGY), American companies like <b>General Motors</b> (GM) and Chinese companies like <b>NIO</b> (NIO) building EVs now. If the people who are upset about Musk’s job at Twitter wanted to ditch Tesla, they could do so. So a loss of sales is in principle a potential risk factor.</p><p>There’s also Musk’s selling of Twitter stock. As a long-term value investor, this does not really count as a risk to me, but it is a risk to those taking short term positions. Musk had to sell Tesla stock to put up collateral for the Twitter loans. He has sold at least $16.4 billion worth of TSLA, or 3.15% of the float. Insider selling of that magnitude can push a stock’s price downward, as stock prices are a function of supply and demand. If you don’t own Tesla stock now, and want to take a long-term position in the future, this is only good news, but for somebody who already owns Tesla stock, with no plans to average down, it’s very bad. If you already own Tesla and are hoping to get back to purchase prices well above $200, you might be waiting a while. Musk is rattling investor confidence and he may have more sales planned. If you don’t own Tesla stock, or own a little and plan on averaging down, then read on, because in the next section I explain why Tesla stock would be genuinely interesting at $75.</p><h2>Why Tesla Would Be Interesting at $75</h2><p>In previous sections, I explained why Tesla, with moderate growth assumptions, appeared to be worth $200 or more. In a DCF model it only takes about 20% growth in free cash flow for TSLA to come out with a fair value estimate well above $200. However, two things have to be kept in mind:</p><ol><li><p>Interest rates are rising.</p></li><li><p>There are genuine risks to Tesla’s operating performance.</p></li></ol><p>Interest rates going up takes a bite out of the value of cash flows from any company, and Elon Musk’s political commentary puts Tesla’s U.S. revenue at risk. So, a new Tesla model is needed to account for the risks. In past models, I discounted TSLA stock at just 8%. That’s a discount rate that includes a risk premium, but not a very large one. Today, Tesla is in the political crosshairs to an extent not seen when I wrote my last Tesla article, so more risk needs to be accounted for.</p><p>There are two ways to do this:</p><ol><li><p>Simply run one of my previous models at a far higher discount rate.</p></li><li><p>Lower the growth assumption.</p></li></ol><p>The first method is pretty straightforward. If you take my previous model that got a $338 FV estimate, and up the discount rate to 15%, you get a $111 price target. I think buying Tesla at that level would be basically sensible, but it helps to go even stricter still. Remember: when you buy TSLA shares, you’re paying for a lot of future growth. The nature of a ‘financial risk’ is that it can cause growth to disappear, and profits to turn into losses, so we need to account for those scenarios.</p><p>I do not think we need to model for a scenario where Tesla’s growth becomes negative. Tesla sells a lot of cars in China, a country that is not plugged into U.S. social media discourse, and where Elon Musk’s private behavior probably isn’t a concern for very many people. The U.S. market position does seem to be at risk, so we can model for a scenario where growth declines to 0%, based on current trends continuing in China while U.S. sales decline. Note that I don’t think this scenario will actually occur, it just helps to model worst case scenarios.</p><p>Under zero growth assumptions, we can simply value TSLA in terms of terminal value. This is where you discount free cash flow at a chosen discount rate. The range we get for Tesla, using 3.5% (no risk premium) and 15% (extremely large risk premium) is shown below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f7a6ae9f247b5aac92b75634596020\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"138\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, to sum up, our total range of values under, when we account for immense risk, goes from:</p><ul><li><p>$19.33 (high discount rate, no growth).</p></li><li><p>$111 (high discount rate, high growth).</p></li></ul><p>The mean of the high and low values is $65. If you want to be extremely conservative, aim for $65 before buying Tesla. Personally, I’d probably buy at $75, because the worst-case scenarios I’m modelling for here are rather extreme. Most likely Tesla will do better than 0% growth. But in an environment of rising rates, it pays to play it safe. For the most risk averse investors, Tesla does not appear to be a buy.</p><p>This article is written by Growth at a Good Price for reference only. Please note the risks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: I'd Buy After A 53.4% Drop\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-15 14:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.I've covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4564344-tesla-stock-buy-post-53-4-percent-drop","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291571778","content_text":"SummaryTesla is a stock I'd be extra cautious about because its founder is involved in ever-more intense political controversies.I've covered it in past articles, getting fair value estimates near $250 on the assumption that the company keeps growing fairly quickly.Nevertheless, I always rated it 'hold' because I thought that the uncertainty surrounding the company undermined any thesis based on future growth assumptions.In this article, I explain why I'd buy Tesla at $75, a 53.4% drop, even though its financials and growth trajectory would seem to suggest it's worth more than that.Dimitrios KambourisTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the toughest stocks out there to analyze. On the one hand, it has strong historical growth and adominant position in its market. On the other hand, it is veryexpensive (going by valuation multiples) and its founder is constantly getting in trouble for his provocative statements. In some cases, Musk has faced legal consequences for things he has said; for example, he once had to pay a $20 million fine for claiming that he had secured funding to take Tesla private.This time around, Twitter is what’s getting people worried about their Tesla stock holdings. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter was controversial in itself, now Elon musk is raising eyebrows for his posts on the platform. It would be hard to directly quote Musk’s recent posts without running afoul of Seeking Alpha’s political comment guidelines, so I will simply leave links to them off-platform here and here. Suffice it to say, the comments made some people very,very upset.Shortly after Elon posted his two notorious Tweets, Tesla stock fell 6.3% in a single trading day. There was little material news about TSLA on the day that crash happened; the most recent big story was a bullish one about a surge in deliveries from Tesla Shanghai. Most likely, Musk’s tweets caused the selloff. Given the lack of other negative news, it’s the default assumption.For me personally, nothing Musk is doing makes Tesla an “avoid at any price” stock. Tesla has great brand recognition, strong growth, and just recently got its tax credits back. The stock has a lot of things going for it. However, Musk’s risk taking is a serious enough concern for me to demand some kind of discount.In past articles, I got fair value estimates for Tesla well above the current stock price. However, I never rated the stock any higher than a hold; in one article I rated it a sell. The reason for that is the immense uncertainty that Tesla is subject to. Whether it’s Musk’s Tweets or the federal investigation of the Twitter deal, there are many risk factors, some of which could impede the growth that makes the stock appear to have such a great future. For this reason, I’d want to see a price of $75 or lower before I’d buy the stock, even though I get value estimates above $200 when I value it by conventional means.My Past Coverage of TeslaIn past articles, I’ve usually found Tesla to be worth something like $200-$300, going by a combination of multiples and discounted cash flows. In some cases, those prices were above the market price, but I never gave the stock a ‘buy’ rating, because I felt there were too many risks to the growth story. Some examples of valuations I arrived at include:$338 in “Tesla: the $4 Trillion Price Target is a Red Flag.”$879 ($293 in post-split terms) in “Tesla: the EV Tax Credit is a Huge Catalyst.”A sell rating (no specific price target) in “Long BYD, Short Tesla: a Great Tactical Pair Trade.”Now, you might wonder why I keep rating Tesla ‘hold’ or ‘sell’ when my models always give it upside. The reason has to do with how discounted cash flow models are constructed. You have to estimate future cash flows in order to make the math work, there’s no way around it. Tesla’s historical growth is extremely strong, and even if you cut the future growth estimates to half or a third of the actual historical growth, you still end up with pretty high price targets. In some of my previous articles, I cut Tesla’s future growth estimate down to the projected growth in the EV industry, which is a lot slower than Tesla’s actual growth rate. It still resulted in upside.Still, I can’t rate the stock a buy, because I do think the risks here are serious enough to potentially end Tesla’s growth streak.The first is demographics. Musk’s recent Twitter posts haven’t been received well by the demographics that tend to buy electric cars. Recently, Musk appeared on stage at a Dave Chapelle performance in San Francisco–the city with the second highest number of EV chargers in the U.S.--and was ‘booed’ by some audience members. This evidence might seem anecdotal, but it is known that Musk has low approval ratings in EV-friendly states like Oregon. Combining hard data with news reports, one gets the sense that Elon Musk isn’t being received well in States that are pushing green energy.EV ownership in the U.S. skews toward affluent, educated, progressive-leaning individuals. Tesla has more conservative customers than other EV companies do, but it still has more democrat than republican owners. Many commentators believe that Musk’s recent Twitter posts have been designed to court conservative support. It is known that Musk is popular among conservatives, and he seems to be trying to shore up that support, but the problem is that Tesla’s customers come from other groups.It’s not clear that Musk has angered enough people to get large numbers of them abandoning Tesla. A few people have said that they would buy Chevy Bolts in retaliation for Musk’s Twitter posts, but sales forecasts suggest there aren’t that many of them. By all accounts, Tesla’s sales are growing, not declining. Still, there is a possibility of Elon Musk alienating his core customer base; if he does so, we’d expect Tesla’s sales to take a hit.There’s no shortage of companies selling electric cars. We’ve got European companies like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), American companies like General Motors (GM) and Chinese companies like NIO (NIO) building EVs now. If the people who are upset about Musk’s job at Twitter wanted to ditch Tesla, they could do so. So a loss of sales is in principle a potential risk factor.There’s also Musk’s selling of Twitter stock. As a long-term value investor, this does not really count as a risk to me, but it is a risk to those taking short term positions. Musk had to sell Tesla stock to put up collateral for the Twitter loans. He has sold at least $16.4 billion worth of TSLA, or 3.15% of the float. Insider selling of that magnitude can push a stock’s price downward, as stock prices are a function of supply and demand. If you don’t own Tesla stock now, and want to take a long-term position in the future, this is only good news, but for somebody who already owns Tesla stock, with no plans to average down, it’s very bad. If you already own Tesla and are hoping to get back to purchase prices well above $200, you might be waiting a while. Musk is rattling investor confidence and he may have more sales planned. If you don’t own Tesla stock, or own a little and plan on averaging down, then read on, because in the next section I explain why Tesla stock would be genuinely interesting at $75.Why Tesla Would Be Interesting at $75In previous sections, I explained why Tesla, with moderate growth assumptions, appeared to be worth $200 or more. In a DCF model it only takes about 20% growth in free cash flow for TSLA to come out with a fair value estimate well above $200. However, two things have to be kept in mind:Interest rates are rising.There are genuine risks to Tesla’s operating performance.Interest rates going up takes a bite out of the value of cash flows from any company, and Elon Musk’s political commentary puts Tesla’s U.S. revenue at risk. So, a new Tesla model is needed to account for the risks. In past models, I discounted TSLA stock at just 8%. That’s a discount rate that includes a risk premium, but not a very large one. Today, Tesla is in the political crosshairs to an extent not seen when I wrote my last Tesla article, so more risk needs to be accounted for.There are two ways to do this:Simply run one of my previous models at a far higher discount rate.Lower the growth assumption.The first method is pretty straightforward. If you take my previous model that got a $338 FV estimate, and up the discount rate to 15%, you get a $111 price target. I think buying Tesla at that level would be basically sensible, but it helps to go even stricter still. Remember: when you buy TSLA shares, you’re paying for a lot of future growth. The nature of a ‘financial risk’ is that it can cause growth to disappear, and profits to turn into losses, so we need to account for those scenarios.I do not think we need to model for a scenario where Tesla’s growth becomes negative. Tesla sells a lot of cars in China, a country that is not plugged into U.S. social media discourse, and where Elon Musk’s private behavior probably isn’t a concern for very many people. The U.S. market position does seem to be at risk, so we can model for a scenario where growth declines to 0%, based on current trends continuing in China while U.S. sales decline. Note that I don’t think this scenario will actually occur, it just helps to model worst case scenarios.Under zero growth assumptions, we can simply value TSLA in terms of terminal value. This is where you discount free cash flow at a chosen discount rate. The range we get for Tesla, using 3.5% (no risk premium) and 15% (extremely large risk premium) is shown below.So, to sum up, our total range of values under, when we account for immense risk, goes from:$19.33 (high discount rate, no growth).$111 (high discount rate, high growth).The mean of the high and low values is $65. If you want to be extremely conservative, aim for $65 before buying Tesla. Personally, I’d probably buy at $75, because the worst-case scenarios I’m modelling for here are rather extreme. Most likely Tesla will do better than 0% growth. But in an environment of rising rates, it pays to play it safe. For the most risk averse investors, Tesla does not appear to be a buy.This article is written by Growth at a Good Price for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}