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2023-07-04

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When Is the Last Time Amazon's Stock Experienced a Golden Cross?

2023-07-02

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@TigerEvents:[2023 mid-year recap] My winning formula in the 2023 stock market

2023-05-29

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@Jo Tan:Newbie's Blog: Grab and Learning to Manage Cycles

2023-05-28

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Our Favorite Warren Buffett Advice: Do Not Lose Money

2022-05-24

[Smile] [Smile] [Smile]

When Will The S&P 500 Recover? History Offers Some Clues

2022-04-19

Well 🤔🤔🤔

2022-04-18

👀🥺🥺🥺

2022-04-16

Good Friday

2022-04-15

😬😬😬

2022-04-14

💕💕💕💕

2022-04-13

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

2022-04-12

Up up and away

2022-04-12

👀👀👀

@TigerEvents:🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194316272152784","repostId":"2348590883","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193366480220272,"gmtCreate":1688260486740,"gmtModify":1688260490302,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193366480220272","repostId":"192206248562784","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":192206248562784,"gmtCreate":1687954987888,"gmtModify":1687956281359,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/61ed9b39c6cbcdce6372edc1c0b48a2d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"[2023 mid-year recap] My winning formula in the 2023 stock market","htmlText":"As we approach the halfway point in 2023, it is time to review our performance in the stock market. You will have a chance to win Tiger Coins, stock vouchers, commission-free trades, and Tiger gifts.In the past few months, the US stock market has experienced a remarkable bull run. S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indices both experienced substantial growth driven by the technology sector. As of June 27th, the S&amp;P 500 had risen by 12%, while the Nasdaq had risen by 27%. For many investors, it has been a profitable period, with many assets experiencing significant gains.Bull markets present both opportunities and challenges for investors. Are you able to grasp the pulse of the market and make wise investment decisions? Are you able to find hidden gems that are undervalued? Are you able to navigate","listText":"As we approach the halfway point in 2023, it is time to review our performance in the stock market. You will have a chance to win Tiger Coins, stock vouchers, commission-free trades, and Tiger gifts.In the past few months, the US stock market has experienced a remarkable bull run. S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indices both experienced substantial growth driven by the technology sector. As of June 27th, the S&amp;P 500 had risen by 12%, while the Nasdaq had risen by 27%. For many investors, it has been a profitable period, with many assets experiencing significant gains.Bull markets present both opportunities and challenges for investors. Are you able to grasp the pulse of the market and make wise investment decisions? Are you able to find hidden gems that are undervalued? Are you able to navigate","text":"As we approach the halfway point in 2023, it is time to review our performance in the stock market. You will have a chance to win Tiger Coins, stock vouchers, commission-free trades, and Tiger gifts.In the past few months, the US stock market has experienced a remarkable bull run. S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both experienced substantial growth driven by the technology sector. As of June 27th, the S&P 500 had risen by 12%, while the Nasdaq had risen by 27%. For many investors, it has been a profitable period, with many assets experiencing significant gains.Bull markets present both opportunities and challenges for investors. Are you able to grasp the pulse of the market and make wise investment decisions? Are you able to find hidden gems that are undervalued? Are you able to navigate","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c40ab4ed70199b568ceaba5451f07155","width":"1280","height":"892"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192206248562784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":32,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979045789,"gmtCreate":1685356220043,"gmtModify":1685356224975,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979045789","repostId":"9979023091","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9979023091,"gmtCreate":1685266609514,"gmtModify":1685266615485,"author":{"id":"4103923793959030","authorId":"4103923793959030","name":"Jo Tan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25f349ba1560882a8ae004ed0b7060bf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"Newbie's Blog: Grab and Learning to Manage Cycles","htmlText":"Tech stocks like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$&nbsp;</a>have never been higher in the last few months, after previous months of hitting lows. Bank stocks are now at its lowest after highs in Dec. My usual thoughts, like most of the market, is why didn't I invest in them earlier? But when I think back, these stocks were projected to be going down because of competition and the general economy. I wouldn't have guessed that they would rise above the grim forecast of possible recession. I view this as part of a large cycle where prices rise and fall and I feel they will rise in general (as long as they continue to innovate and be profitable). This brings m","listText":"Tech stocks like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$&nbsp;</a>have never been higher in the last few months, after previous months of hitting lows. Bank stocks are now at its lowest after highs in Dec. My usual thoughts, like most of the market, is why didn't I invest in them earlier? But when I think back, these stocks were projected to be going down because of competition and the general economy. I wouldn't have guessed that they would rise above the grim forecast of possible recession. I view this as part of a large cycle where prices rise and fall and I feel they will rise in general (as long as they continue to innovate and be profitable). This brings m","text":"Tech stocks like $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ have never been higher in the last few months, after previous months of hitting lows. Bank stocks are now at its lowest after highs in Dec. My usual thoughts, like most of the market, is why didn't I invest in them earlier? But when I think back, these stocks were projected to be going down because of competition and the general economy. I wouldn't have guessed that they would rise above the grim forecast of possible recession. I view this as part of a large cycle where prices rise and fall and I feel they will rise in general (as long as they continue to innovate and be profitable). This brings m","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979023091","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979023887,"gmtCreate":1685268144350,"gmtModify":1685268147991,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979023887","repostId":"2338048773","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026505757,"gmtCreate":1653397406579,"gmtModify":1676535273948,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile] [Smile] [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026505757","repostId":"2237359956","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2237359956","pubTimestamp":1653394228,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2237359956?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-24 20:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will The S&P 500 Recover? History Offers Some Clues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237359956","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring l","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring late-day recovery going into monthly options expiration.</li><li>As of writing this, stocks are down about 18% for the year.</li><li>Questions that are top of mind for many investors are how deep the decline will go and when stocks are likely to recover their all-time highs.</li><li>To help answer these questions, I built a simple model that can handicap market recovery times based on past data.</li><li>Some analysis on a few different ways this selloff could play out, and on intelligent risk taking in general.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a137319cbf559dd70472d7a2d175873\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mlenny/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p>Are you curious when your 401(K) balance is likely to recover from the current market selloff? You&#39;re not alone. After a powerful three-year bull market, the tide has decisively turned against stocks – and the high-flying technology sector in particular. As of my writing this, the S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down roughly 18% for the year, erasing trillions in market value for investors. But history has shown that diversified investors who have stayed the course have always come out well in the end – if they were able to hold on through some nasty bear markets. For the brave, there are always trading opportunities to take advantage of highs and lows as well.</p><p><b>When Will Stocks Recover?</b></p><p>Stocks don&#39;t only go up. I pulled some data for the S&amp;P 500, and it shows that since the end of World War II, there have been 84 pullbacks of 5% or more, 29 corrections of 10% or more, and nine bear markets of 20% or more, three of which saw declines of 40% or more.</p><p>This works out to a pullback occurring on average every 0.9 years, a correction every 2.7 years, a bear market every 8.6 years or so, and a major bear market occurring every 25.7 years (this data is from Guggenheim Investments, and as of March of this year. Also note that the data is based on closing prices).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d63321deedc784c80f6d7f7b291b262\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Stock Market Decline Frequency and Recovery Time (Guggenheim Investments)</span></p><p>By this measure, US stocks have been a pretty solid wealth creation tool. I will note, however, that two of the major bear markets have come since the turn of the century, making comparisons to the post-war era a little dicier than they would be if you&#39;re looking to retire on your money. Also, the post-war era was fairly prosperous – including the Great Depression in your dataset makes bear markets and corrections much more frequent.</p><p>If you&#39;re looking at your portfolio now and wondering when it will go back to where it was in January, then I have a model based on historical data that will help you make an educated guess. I tested out a few different approaches. First I made a linear regression with this data, but it didn&#39;t fit very well with past declines. I tried an exponential regression, but it gave some crazy answers as well. The best fit I found was to make a weighted regression. The idea is that pullbacks are frequent, while bear markets are relatively rare, so I weight the model by frequency.</p><p>Here&#39;s what I got.</p><p><b>Drawdown Recovery Regression (Linear, Weighted)</b></p><p>x=drawdown%</p><p>y=months to recovery</p><p>y= 1.13x -6.13</p><p><b>How to use this model</b>: Simply plug in the size of the decline into X (but drop the percentage). Then, subtract the time elapsed since the previous peak.</p><p>So, for a 20% bear market decline, the model predicts that it will take ((1.13 *20) -6.13)= 16.5 months from the previous peak to recover. The decline has been going on for ~4.5 months, so the model predicts that stocks will be back at all-time highs in about 12 months if the future looks like the past (note that I&#39;m rounding).</p><p>This isn&#39;t really scientifically sound since I&#39;m introducing hindsight bias into the model by comparing an ongoing drawdown to past completed ones, but as a tool to make an educated guess about the future, it&#39;s not bad at all.</p><p>Deeper declines mean longer recoveries. If the decline goes 40%, the model predicts that stocks won&#39;t retake their all-time highs for about 35 months.</p><p><b>Where&#39;s The Market Headed Next?</b></p><p>No two market declines are identical, and to understand what might happen next, you have to fundamentally analyze what&#39;s going on in the world.</p><p>The above Guggenheim piece, as well as research I&#39;ve read from Bridgewater, separates corrections and bear markets into two different categories. Typically corrections are caused by changes in valuation multiples (the PE ratio) of the market, while bear markets are driven by declines in earnings (recessions).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d480a109b64a7665aad15131e86974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Earnings Vs. Multiples (Bridgewater)</span></p><p>The key for investors here - earnings. The stock market has felt like it&#39;s gone to hell in a handbag this year, but earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023 have barely budged. There are four economic quadrants here that will determine the direction of the stock market.</p><p><b>1. Above-Trend Growth, Above-Trend Inflation</b></p><p>Earnings estimates hold up into 2022 and 2023, and the market falling is simply because the Fed fighting inflation has caused multiples to fall. In this scenario, a strong labor market and pent-up savings keep the economy humming along, giving the Fed plenty of latitude to hike rates and bring inflation down. This would mean the current price is about right for stocks. This economy would be above-trend growth and above-trend inflation. Another word for this would be a &#34;soft landing.&#34;</p><p><b>2. Below-Trend Growth, Below-Trend Inflation</b></p><p>Earnings estimates don&#39;t hold up in this scenario, but inflation falls due to recession. In this scenario, prices stop their rapid increases or even fall a little, but earnings estimates are way too high and stocks need to fall another 10% or a bit more. This would be below-trend growth and below-trend inflation. This would be a &#34;hard landing.&#34;</p><p><b>3. Above-Trend Growth, Below Trend-Inflation</b></p><p>The best-case scenario is that earnings hold up and inflation falls. This scenario isn&#39;t impossible, but would likely need the Russia-Ukraine war to resolve, China to drop zero-COVID, and some solid gains in both labor force participation and tech-driven worker productivity in the US and EU. This would be above-trend growth and below-trend inflation. I don&#39;t think this scenario is super realistic, and the market doesn&#39;t think this is likely, but it&#39;s worth discussing, as it would lead stocks to retake their all-time highs. This isn&#39;t super common, but this was the driver of the huge gains in the 1990s.</p><p><b>4. Below-Trend Growth, Above Trend Inflation</b></p><p>The worst-case realistic scenario is stagflation, where earnings drop and inflation stays stubbornly high. This would be below-trend growth and above-trend inflation. In this scenario, the Fed has a terrible choice between stoking inflation and causing unemployment and ends up with a lot of both. In a full-blown stagflation scenario, stocks likely fall about 40% off their high due to lower earnings and a lower multiple paid on those earnings. This happened last in the 1970s.</p><p><b>Where Do Stocks Go Next?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8a26f3e897d5f54eb614f5043ed50d8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>I think a lot of investors feel that something is rotten in the State of Denmark with this market. Stocks are much higher than they were pre-pandemic, but are earnings sustainable?</p><p>Earnings estimates are higher than 2021, but the economy lacks the massive stimulus that created these conditions in the first place. Without stimulus, I believe earnings should be lower than they were in 2021, and the market seems to be starting to agree. A more interesting question in my mind revolves around inflation. The rate of price increases is grabbing headlines, but the market for inflation-protected TIPS (TIP) is remarkably calm about this, pricing an inflation breakeven of only 2.55% for the next 10 years. If you think this is too low, you can buy TIPS and commodities and you&#39;ll make money. Inflation doesn&#39;t seem to be slowing too fast, as gas prices certainly are continuing to rise.</p><p>Comparing prices for the bond and stock markets implies we may be in for somewhat of a hard landing, but this happening will solve the inflation problem. I don&#39;t know, but it&#39;s interesting to see indicators like these contradict each other.</p><p>This week will likely give more clues on earnings growth, with earnings from the likes of Costco (COST), Best Buy (BBY), and Nordstrom (JWN). The Fed also is due to release minutes on Wednesday, giving a picture on inflation.</p><p><b>Risk Management Is A Key Life Skill</b></p><p>Risk-taking isn&#39;t really something that&#39;s taught in school, yet affluent households are expected to have six to seven figures invested in the financial markets, where their retirement fortunes often fluctuate by tens of thousands of dollars every day.</p><p>Risk management challenges are everywhere.</p><p>For today&#39;s 18-year-olds, the system is set up so you can borrow $100,000 or more to go to college, where you&#39;re expected to make long-term bets on what major to pick and what career they should go into. Borrowing money is a lot easier than making correspondingly accurate analyses on economics, demographics, and future business trends, and this is one reason why we have a student debt issue in America. After graduation, the risk management challenges only increase. If you played ball in college and weren&#39;t drafted, do you try to go pro? Do you start a business, and if so should you borrow money to do so? Are you marrying the right person at 24-years-old? Should you bid $50,000 over asking and waive inspections for a three-bedroom house in the suburbs? And the stock market is the cherry on top, providing real-time feedback to your decision making to the tune of thousands of dollars made or lost for affluent households, every waking hour of your day.</p><p>You might be reading this in Manhattan, but I live in Texas. Texas is a place known for colorful risk-taking, whether it&#39;s in the oil business, in real estate, or at the poker table. Some strike it rich – while others fail in spectacular fashion. Here a lot of restaurants are closed on Sundays and there aren&#39;t the same career opportunities there are on the East Coast or in the Bay Area, but Texas is a continual education on risk-taking. And if we&#39;re being honest, given enough time, I believe smart risk-taking + moderate earnings will trump high W-2 earnings + bad risk-taking every time. This weekend&#39;s PGA Championship was an absolute master class in risk management, with Justin Thomas making 2 birdies in a 3-hole playoff to beat Will Zalatoris for a seven-figure difference in prize money.</p><p>Here in Texas, the majority of local multimillionaires I&#39;ve come to know have a deep distrust of the stock market. They prefer to invest in land, businesses, and commercial real estate. But with a solid understanding of how markets work and how to manage risk, I believe the stock market offers the best way to grow your money over time that has ever been invented. Many of the friends I went to school with now have mortgages and spouses, while I&#39;ve racked up airline miles. While I don&#39;t see as many of these old friends as often, I hope their risk management skills are up to par – that they can take enough risk to succeed and live the American Dream while not taking so much to wipe out.</p><p><b>Bottom Line</b></p><p>Stocks have fallen sharply from their highs, and it&#39;s not clear when they will bottom, although we can make some educated guesses based on past history and the current state of the economy. For those able to manage risk well, the ongoing declines in stocks represent a likely opportunity to buy assets at attractive prices over the coming months, especially if stocks fall sharply from here. History shows that stocks are a good investment for the long run, but the current decline has the potential to amplify the threats and opportunities created by the current economic environment.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will The S&P 500 Recover? History Offers Some Clues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will The S&P 500 Recover? History Offers Some Clues\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-24 20:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513853-s-and-p-500-recovery-history><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring late-day recovery going into monthly options expiration.As of writing this, stocks are down about 18%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513853-s-and-p-500-recovery-history\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513853-s-and-p-500-recovery-history","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2237359956","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring late-day recovery going into monthly options expiration.As of writing this, stocks are down about 18% for the year.Questions that are top of mind for many investors are how deep the decline will go and when stocks are likely to recover their all-time highs.To help answer these questions, I built a simple model that can handicap market recovery times based on past data.Some analysis on a few different ways this selloff could play out, and on intelligent risk taking in general.Mlenny/E+ via Getty ImagesAre you curious when your 401(K) balance is likely to recover from the current market selloff? You're not alone. After a powerful three-year bull market, the tide has decisively turned against stocks – and the high-flying technology sector in particular. As of my writing this, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down roughly 18% for the year, erasing trillions in market value for investors. But history has shown that diversified investors who have stayed the course have always come out well in the end – if they were able to hold on through some nasty bear markets. For the brave, there are always trading opportunities to take advantage of highs and lows as well.When Will Stocks Recover?Stocks don't only go up. I pulled some data for the S&P 500, and it shows that since the end of World War II, there have been 84 pullbacks of 5% or more, 29 corrections of 10% or more, and nine bear markets of 20% or more, three of which saw declines of 40% or more.This works out to a pullback occurring on average every 0.9 years, a correction every 2.7 years, a bear market every 8.6 years or so, and a major bear market occurring every 25.7 years (this data is from Guggenheim Investments, and as of March of this year. Also note that the data is based on closing prices).Stock Market Decline Frequency and Recovery Time (Guggenheim Investments)By this measure, US stocks have been a pretty solid wealth creation tool. I will note, however, that two of the major bear markets have come since the turn of the century, making comparisons to the post-war era a little dicier than they would be if you're looking to retire on your money. Also, the post-war era was fairly prosperous – including the Great Depression in your dataset makes bear markets and corrections much more frequent.If you're looking at your portfolio now and wondering when it will go back to where it was in January, then I have a model based on historical data that will help you make an educated guess. I tested out a few different approaches. First I made a linear regression with this data, but it didn't fit very well with past declines. I tried an exponential regression, but it gave some crazy answers as well. The best fit I found was to make a weighted regression. The idea is that pullbacks are frequent, while bear markets are relatively rare, so I weight the model by frequency.Here's what I got.Drawdown Recovery Regression (Linear, Weighted)x=drawdown%y=months to recoveryy= 1.13x -6.13How to use this model: Simply plug in the size of the decline into X (but drop the percentage). Then, subtract the time elapsed since the previous peak.So, for a 20% bear market decline, the model predicts that it will take ((1.13 *20) -6.13)= 16.5 months from the previous peak to recover. The decline has been going on for ~4.5 months, so the model predicts that stocks will be back at all-time highs in about 12 months if the future looks like the past (note that I'm rounding).This isn't really scientifically sound since I'm introducing hindsight bias into the model by comparing an ongoing drawdown to past completed ones, but as a tool to make an educated guess about the future, it's not bad at all.Deeper declines mean longer recoveries. If the decline goes 40%, the model predicts that stocks won't retake their all-time highs for about 35 months.Where's The Market Headed Next?No two market declines are identical, and to understand what might happen next, you have to fundamentally analyze what's going on in the world.The above Guggenheim piece, as well as research I've read from Bridgewater, separates corrections and bear markets into two different categories. Typically corrections are caused by changes in valuation multiples (the PE ratio) of the market, while bear markets are driven by declines in earnings (recessions).Earnings Vs. Multiples (Bridgewater)The key for investors here - earnings. The stock market has felt like it's gone to hell in a handbag this year, but earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023 have barely budged. There are four economic quadrants here that will determine the direction of the stock market.1. Above-Trend Growth, Above-Trend InflationEarnings estimates hold up into 2022 and 2023, and the market falling is simply because the Fed fighting inflation has caused multiples to fall. In this scenario, a strong labor market and pent-up savings keep the economy humming along, giving the Fed plenty of latitude to hike rates and bring inflation down. This would mean the current price is about right for stocks. This economy would be above-trend growth and above-trend inflation. Another word for this would be a \"soft landing.\"2. Below-Trend Growth, Below-Trend InflationEarnings estimates don't hold up in this scenario, but inflation falls due to recession. In this scenario, prices stop their rapid increases or even fall a little, but earnings estimates are way too high and stocks need to fall another 10% or a bit more. This would be below-trend growth and below-trend inflation. This would be a \"hard landing.\"3. Above-Trend Growth, Below Trend-InflationThe best-case scenario is that earnings hold up and inflation falls. This scenario isn't impossible, but would likely need the Russia-Ukraine war to resolve, China to drop zero-COVID, and some solid gains in both labor force participation and tech-driven worker productivity in the US and EU. This would be above-trend growth and below-trend inflation. I don't think this scenario is super realistic, and the market doesn't think this is likely, but it's worth discussing, as it would lead stocks to retake their all-time highs. This isn't super common, but this was the driver of the huge gains in the 1990s.4. Below-Trend Growth, Above Trend InflationThe worst-case realistic scenario is stagflation, where earnings drop and inflation stays stubbornly high. This would be below-trend growth and above-trend inflation. In this scenario, the Fed has a terrible choice between stoking inflation and causing unemployment and ends up with a lot of both. In a full-blown stagflation scenario, stocks likely fall about 40% off their high due to lower earnings and a lower multiple paid on those earnings. This happened last in the 1970s.Where Do Stocks Go Next?Data by YChartsI think a lot of investors feel that something is rotten in the State of Denmark with this market. Stocks are much higher than they were pre-pandemic, but are earnings sustainable?Earnings estimates are higher than 2021, but the economy lacks the massive stimulus that created these conditions in the first place. Without stimulus, I believe earnings should be lower than they were in 2021, and the market seems to be starting to agree. A more interesting question in my mind revolves around inflation. The rate of price increases is grabbing headlines, but the market for inflation-protected TIPS (TIP) is remarkably calm about this, pricing an inflation breakeven of only 2.55% for the next 10 years. If you think this is too low, you can buy TIPS and commodities and you'll make money. Inflation doesn't seem to be slowing too fast, as gas prices certainly are continuing to rise.Comparing prices for the bond and stock markets implies we may be in for somewhat of a hard landing, but this happening will solve the inflation problem. I don't know, but it's interesting to see indicators like these contradict each other.This week will likely give more clues on earnings growth, with earnings from the likes of Costco (COST), Best Buy (BBY), and Nordstrom (JWN). The Fed also is due to release minutes on Wednesday, giving a picture on inflation.Risk Management Is A Key Life SkillRisk-taking isn't really something that's taught in school, yet affluent households are expected to have six to seven figures invested in the financial markets, where their retirement fortunes often fluctuate by tens of thousands of dollars every day.Risk management challenges are everywhere.For today's 18-year-olds, the system is set up so you can borrow $100,000 or more to go to college, where you're expected to make long-term bets on what major to pick and what career they should go into. Borrowing money is a lot easier than making correspondingly accurate analyses on economics, demographics, and future business trends, and this is one reason why we have a student debt issue in America. After graduation, the risk management challenges only increase. If you played ball in college and weren't drafted, do you try to go pro? Do you start a business, and if so should you borrow money to do so? Are you marrying the right person at 24-years-old? Should you bid $50,000 over asking and waive inspections for a three-bedroom house in the suburbs? And the stock market is the cherry on top, providing real-time feedback to your decision making to the tune of thousands of dollars made or lost for affluent households, every waking hour of your day.You might be reading this in Manhattan, but I live in Texas. Texas is a place known for colorful risk-taking, whether it's in the oil business, in real estate, or at the poker table. Some strike it rich – while others fail in spectacular fashion. Here a lot of restaurants are closed on Sundays and there aren't the same career opportunities there are on the East Coast or in the Bay Area, but Texas is a continual education on risk-taking. And if we're being honest, given enough time, I believe smart risk-taking + moderate earnings will trump high W-2 earnings + bad risk-taking every time. This weekend's PGA Championship was an absolute master class in risk management, with Justin Thomas making 2 birdies in a 3-hole playoff to beat Will Zalatoris for a seven-figure difference in prize money.Here in Texas, the majority of local multimillionaires I've come to know have a deep distrust of the stock market. They prefer to invest in land, businesses, and commercial real estate. But with a solid understanding of how markets work and how to manage risk, I believe the stock market offers the best way to grow your money over time that has ever been invented. Many of the friends I went to school with now have mortgages and spouses, while I've racked up airline miles. While I don't see as many of these old friends as often, I hope their risk management skills are up to par – that they can take enough risk to succeed and live the American Dream while not taking so much to wipe out.Bottom LineStocks have fallen sharply from their highs, and it's not clear when they will bottom, although we can make some educated guesses based on past history and the current state of the economy. For those able to manage risk well, the ongoing declines in stocks represent a likely opportunity to buy assets at attractive prices over the coming months, especially if stocks fall sharply from here. History shows that stocks are a good investment for the long run, but the current decline has the potential to amplify the threats and opportunities created by the current economic environment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088961210,"gmtCreate":1650299052201,"gmtModify":1676534690465,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well 🤔🤔🤔","listText":"Well 🤔🤔🤔","text":"Well 🤔🤔🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088961210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081129523,"gmtCreate":1650212164424,"gmtModify":1676534670072,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👀🥺🥺🥺","listText":"👀🥺🥺🥺","text":"👀🥺🥺🥺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081129523","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9083032135,"gmtCreate":1650042600040,"gmtModify":1676534635373,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Friday&nbsp;","listText":"Good Friday&nbsp;","text":"Good Friday","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9083032135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089381264,"gmtCreate":1649952325035,"gmtModify":1676534615010,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😬😬😬","listText":"😬😬😬","text":"😬😬😬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089381264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080820259,"gmtCreate":1649866082955,"gmtModify":1676534594261,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💕💕💕💕","listText":"💕💕💕💕","text":"💕💕💕💕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080820259","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080094299,"gmtCreate":1649816527104,"gmtModify":1676534582853,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080094299","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017683148,"gmtCreate":1649772128172,"gmtModify":1676534571030,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up and away","listText":"Up up and away","text":"Up up and away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017683148","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017148450,"gmtCreate":1649759811717,"gmtModify":1676534566914,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👀👀👀","listText":"👀👀👀","text":"👀👀👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017148450","repostId":"9016476123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9016476123,"gmtCreate":1649229403658,"gmtModify":1676534474180,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/61ed9b39c6cbcdce6372edc1c0b48a2d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","listText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","text":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please click here to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b435c0d10e0e89ad3e06b7bbd04830","width":"2251","height":"1334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff9640a9df2f24446e07b7a9b658cb4b","width":"1200","height":"630"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/795038848b7c7b1d7dda27d92b580946","width":"1656","height":"948"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016476123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":194316272152784,"gmtCreate":1688478423861,"gmtModify":1688478427512,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194316272152784","repostId":"2348590883","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2348590883","pubTimestamp":1688477400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2348590883?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-04 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Is the Last Time Amazon's Stock Experienced a Golden Cross?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2348590883","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A golden cross is when a stock's short-term moving average price eclipses its long-term moving average price.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li><p>Many chart traders view a golden cross as a bullish signal.</p></li><li><p>A good example is to look at the last time Amazon&#39;s stock experienced a golden cross, which wasn&#39;t too long ago.</p></li></ul><p>While a lot of the business of investing involves looking at a company&#39;s business model, financials, and other fundamentals, there are also a lot of investors that focus on the technical aspects of a stock chart in order to determine whether to buy a stock.</p><p>This often involves analyzing different moving price averages of a stock and looking for signals that indicate a buying opportunity is near. </p><p>One of those signals is called the golden cross. To show an example of how this signal works, let&#39;s use the very popular tech and e-commerce stock <strong>Amazon</strong> and look at the last time Amazon&#39;s stock experienced a golden cross.</p><h2>What is a golden cross?</h2><p>During a golden cross scenario, the short-term moving average of a stock will cross its long-term moving average, indicating a bullish trend. While you can use different data points, investors typically use a 50-day moving average price to represent the short-term trend and a 200-day moving average for the long term.</p><p>The golden cross typically plays out in three different stages. The first signal will be during a downward trend when the short-term moving daily average is underneath the long-term moving average. This is actually known as a death cross, but the first stage of a golden cross begins when the short-term average stops moving downward and reverses course.</p><p>The second phase is the actual formation of a golden cross where the 50-day and 200-day moving average lines crisscross, and the third phase is when the short-term moving average not only surpasses the long-term moving average but continues to move higher and potentially even widens the gap, solidifying a bullish trend.</p><p>All of that said, the important thing to remember about a golden cross is that it is based on what has already happened with a stock. As we encourage investors to remember: past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</p><h2>When was Amazon&#39;s last golden cross?</h2><p>So when was the last time Amazon saw a golden cross? According to the chart, not too long ago, actually.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81510cc6c42e0b132e0ba7e7ccdba3f4\" alt=\"AMZN 50-Day Exponential Moving Average data by YCharts\" title=\"AMZN 50-Day Exponential Moving Average data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\"/><span>AMZN 50-Day Exponential Moving Average data by YCharts</span></p><p>In recent months, Amazon has been rising on the back of solid first-quarter earnings results, in which the company delivered earnings of $15.79 per share on total revenue of $108.5 billion, easily beating analyst estimates for the quarter. Amazon also saw its profit margins increase.</p><p>Amazon has also been benefiting from the broader rally in large tech stocks, which have rebounded this year and are moving higher from the artificial intelligence craze. The company is believed to be able to take advantage of this trend.</p><h2>What you should do about it now</h2><p>While the golden cross is a proven trading pattern, I do want to remind investors that it is not a bulletproof signal of whether to buy a stock. The big reason is that the golden cross is based on past data, meaning it has already happened and doesn&#39;t necessarily guarantee that the trend will continue.</p><p>At the end of the day, the golden cross is really used by those traders focused on short-term gains. While plenty of investors have made money this way, you really need to know what you are doing if you are going to try this strategy. Investing for short-term gains is difficult because it&#39;s hard to time the market.</p><p>At the Motley Fool, we really focus on long-term investing. While it may not always be as exciting, the strategy has been proven to greatly grow your wealth, so while you should certainly try different investing strategies, I wouldn&#39;t rely too heavily on the golden cross.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Is the Last Time Amazon's Stock Experienced a Golden Cross?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Is the Last Time Amazon's Stock Experienced a Golden Cross?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-04 21:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/when-is-the-last-time-amazons-stock-experienced-a/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSMany chart traders view a golden cross as a bullish signal.A good example is to look at the last time Amazon's stock experienced a golden cross, which wasn't too long ago.While a lot of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/when-is-the-last-time-amazons-stock-experienced-a/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4220":"综合零售","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","AMZN":"亚马逊","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/when-is-the-last-time-amazons-stock-experienced-a/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2348590883","content_text":"KEY POINTSMany chart traders view a golden cross as a bullish signal.A good example is to look at the last time Amazon's stock experienced a golden cross, which wasn't too long ago.While a lot of the business of investing involves looking at a company's business model, financials, and other fundamentals, there are also a lot of investors that focus on the technical aspects of a stock chart in order to determine whether to buy a stock.This often involves analyzing different moving price averages of a stock and looking for signals that indicate a buying opportunity is near. One of those signals is called the golden cross. To show an example of how this signal works, let's use the very popular tech and e-commerce stock Amazon and look at the last time Amazon's stock experienced a golden cross.What is a golden cross?During a golden cross scenario, the short-term moving average of a stock will cross its long-term moving average, indicating a bullish trend. While you can use different data points, investors typically use a 50-day moving average price to represent the short-term trend and a 200-day moving average for the long term.The golden cross typically plays out in three different stages. The first signal will be during a downward trend when the short-term moving daily average is underneath the long-term moving average. This is actually known as a death cross, but the first stage of a golden cross begins when the short-term average stops moving downward and reverses course.The second phase is the actual formation of a golden cross where the 50-day and 200-day moving average lines crisscross, and the third phase is when the short-term moving average not only surpasses the long-term moving average but continues to move higher and potentially even widens the gap, solidifying a bullish trend.All of that said, the important thing to remember about a golden cross is that it is based on what has already happened with a stock. As we encourage investors to remember: past performance is not a guarantee of future results.When was Amazon's last golden cross?So when was the last time Amazon saw a golden cross? According to the chart, not too long ago, actually.AMZN 50-Day Exponential Moving Average data by YChartsIn recent months, Amazon has been rising on the back of solid first-quarter earnings results, in which the company delivered earnings of $15.79 per share on total revenue of $108.5 billion, easily beating analyst estimates for the quarter. Amazon also saw its profit margins increase.Amazon has also been benefiting from the broader rally in large tech stocks, which have rebounded this year and are moving higher from the artificial intelligence craze. The company is believed to be able to take advantage of this trend.What you should do about it nowWhile the golden cross is a proven trading pattern, I do want to remind investors that it is not a bulletproof signal of whether to buy a stock. The big reason is that the golden cross is based on past data, meaning it has already happened and doesn't necessarily guarantee that the trend will continue.At the end of the day, the golden cross is really used by those traders focused on short-term gains. While plenty of investors have made money this way, you really need to know what you are doing if you are going to try this strategy. Investing for short-term gains is difficult because it's hard to time the market.At the Motley Fool, we really focus on long-term investing. While it may not always be as exciting, the strategy has been proven to greatly grow your wealth, so while you should certainly try different investing strategies, I wouldn't rely too heavily on the golden cross.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193366480220272,"gmtCreate":1688260486740,"gmtModify":1688260490302,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193366480220272","repostId":"192206248562784","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":192206248562784,"gmtCreate":1687954987888,"gmtModify":1687956281359,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/61ed9b39c6cbcdce6372edc1c0b48a2d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"[2023 mid-year recap] My winning formula in the 2023 stock market","htmlText":"As we approach the halfway point in 2023, it is time to review our performance in the stock market. You will have a chance to win Tiger Coins, stock vouchers, commission-free trades, and Tiger gifts.In the past few months, the US stock market has experienced a remarkable bull run. S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indices both experienced substantial growth driven by the technology sector. As of June 27th, the S&amp;P 500 had risen by 12%, while the Nasdaq had risen by 27%. For many investors, it has been a profitable period, with many assets experiencing significant gains.Bull markets present both opportunities and challenges for investors. Are you able to grasp the pulse of the market and make wise investment decisions? Are you able to find hidden gems that are undervalued? Are you able to navigate","listText":"As we approach the halfway point in 2023, it is time to review our performance in the stock market. You will have a chance to win Tiger Coins, stock vouchers, commission-free trades, and Tiger gifts.In the past few months, the US stock market has experienced a remarkable bull run. S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indices both experienced substantial growth driven by the technology sector. As of June 27th, the S&amp;P 500 had risen by 12%, while the Nasdaq had risen by 27%. For many investors, it has been a profitable period, with many assets experiencing significant gains.Bull markets present both opportunities and challenges for investors. Are you able to grasp the pulse of the market and make wise investment decisions? Are you able to find hidden gems that are undervalued? Are you able to navigate","text":"As we approach the halfway point in 2023, it is time to review our performance in the stock market. You will have a chance to win Tiger Coins, stock vouchers, commission-free trades, and Tiger gifts.In the past few months, the US stock market has experienced a remarkable bull run. S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both experienced substantial growth driven by the technology sector. As of June 27th, the S&P 500 had risen by 12%, while the Nasdaq had risen by 27%. For many investors, it has been a profitable period, with many assets experiencing significant gains.Bull markets present both opportunities and challenges for investors. Are you able to grasp the pulse of the market and make wise investment decisions? Are you able to find hidden gems that are undervalued? Are you able to navigate","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c40ab4ed70199b568ceaba5451f07155","width":"1280","height":"892"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192206248562784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":32,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979045789,"gmtCreate":1685356220043,"gmtModify":1685356224975,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979045789","repostId":"9979023091","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9979023091,"gmtCreate":1685266609514,"gmtModify":1685266615485,"author":{"id":"4103923793959030","authorId":"4103923793959030","name":"Jo Tan","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25f349ba1560882a8ae004ed0b7060bf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"Newbie's Blog: Grab and Learning to Manage Cycles","htmlText":"Tech stocks like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$&nbsp;</a>have never been higher in the last few months, after previous months of hitting lows. Bank stocks are now at its lowest after highs in Dec. My usual thoughts, like most of the market, is why didn't I invest in them earlier? But when I think back, these stocks were projected to be going down because of competition and the general economy. I wouldn't have guessed that they would rise above the grim forecast of possible recession. I view this as part of a large cycle where prices rise and fall and I feel they will rise in general (as long as they continue to innovate and be profitable). This brings m","listText":"Tech stocks like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$&nbsp;</a>have never been higher in the last few months, after previous months of hitting lows. Bank stocks are now at its lowest after highs in Dec. My usual thoughts, like most of the market, is why didn't I invest in them earlier? But when I think back, these stocks were projected to be going down because of competition and the general economy. I wouldn't have guessed that they would rise above the grim forecast of possible recession. I view this as part of a large cycle where prices rise and fall and I feel they will rise in general (as long as they continue to innovate and be profitable). This brings m","text":"Tech stocks like $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ have never been higher in the last few months, after previous months of hitting lows. Bank stocks are now at its lowest after highs in Dec. My usual thoughts, like most of the market, is why didn't I invest in them earlier? But when I think back, these stocks were projected to be going down because of competition and the general economy. I wouldn't have guessed that they would rise above the grim forecast of possible recession. I view this as part of a large cycle where prices rise and fall and I feel they will rise in general (as long as they continue to innovate and be profitable). This brings m","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979023091","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979023887,"gmtCreate":1685268144350,"gmtModify":1685268147991,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979023887","repostId":"2338048773","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2338048773","pubTimestamp":1685239873,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2338048773?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-28 10:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Our Favorite Warren Buffett Advice: Do Not Lose Money","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2338048773","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWhen Warren Buffett said \"Never lose money,\" what did he mean?Our portfolio performance depen","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>When Warren Buffett said &#34;Never lose money,&#34; what did he mean?</p></li><li><p>Our portfolio performance depends greatly on avoiding poor investments that are not prudent.</p></li><li><p>Buying companies at a fair price makes it much easier to withstand inevitable volatility.</p></li><li><p>Price action does not always mean what you think it means, sometimes the market gets it wrong.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061a6cdd68037e08808c1235efb8d97e\" alt=\"Daniel Megias\" title=\"Daniel Megias\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Daniel Megias</span></p><p>It is widely considered that Warren Buffett has said:</p><blockquote>Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1.</blockquote><p>Taken literally, this advice is near impossible to follow for investors. The simple fact is that stock prices are volatile and no one has the ability to time exact tops or bottoms.</p><p>But that&#39;s not what Buffett means. In fact, he acknowledges that prudent investors will often have to suffer through significant share price volatility. His advice:</p><blockquote>You&#39;ve got to be prepared when you buy a stock having them down 50 percent or more and be comfortable with it - as long as you&#39;re comfortable with the holding.</blockquote><p>Mr. Buffett has pointed out before that even Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) stock has declined by up to 50% several times in the past but that wasn&#39;t reason to sell. In fact, they did the opposite and added to their exposure. This has not prevented the shares from gaining 168,000% over the past 4 decades.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdb2bff41d01db931219c69093914350\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eed227df53f1a41cf1e0cc17e49aad3\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>So what does this mean, exactly?</p><p>Mr. Buffett is referring to the value of the underlying business. Price is a fickle thing, value is not. Price can be discovered in an instant simply by searching for a ticker on Seeking Alpha or any other financial market site. Value requires much more effort and work to determine. In fact, it is difficult for any particular person to know everything there is to know about a company. Nonetheless, it is possible to know enough to be successful, and Mr. Buffett is living proof of this. Mr. Buffett is telling us not to make poor decisions that lead to losing money.</p><h2>Don&#39;t Be Stupid</h2><p>The way we view Buffett&#39;s advice can be said another way: <em>don&#39;t be stupid</em>. We believe that one of the best ways to manage our portfolio is by simply avoiding the poor investments. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOUT\">GraniteShares XOUT U.S. Large Cap ETF</a> (XOUT) is a fund based on this approach with the strategy of investing in large cap stocks excluding those that are expected to underperform. Up until the equity peak in 2021, the strategy was working. Today, it&#39;s mostly even with the S&amp;P 500. The fund carries a hefty expense ratio of 0.6% which contributes to this outcome.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c621428c6fa8459c0d1abcd9c06c3868\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>The advice &#34;do not lose money&#34; means to invest <em>prudently</em>. This requires due diligence, self discipline, and knowledge of business. This is a list of common investing habits that are not prudent (i.e. stupid):</p><ul><li><p>Investing in businesses that one does not understand</p></li><li><p>Investing in businesses that were simply recommended by others</p></li><li><p>Investing in good businesses at the wrong price</p></li><li><p>Using too much leverage (including options)</p></li><li><p>Investing for the wrong time-frame</p></li></ul><p>There is a fine line between investing and speculating in equity markets. Speculation is merely a sophisticated term for gambling. Mr. Buffett is saying, <em>don&#39;t gamble if you don&#39;t want to lose money</em>.</p><p>There has been much speculation over the past few years and speculation continues today. In recent headlines, NVDA shares have soared on strong guidance. Unfortunately, we have seen reports of life-altering losses on the short side of NVDA. Many of these trades involve leverage including options. Hindsight is 20/20 and there was no knowing where the share price would go. But let&#39;s call a spade a spade; this was gambling and it&#39;s not likely something that Warren Buffett would put his money in.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dabca90b9c1755724ac85e38f1025c\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>On the flip side, is it prudent to buy NVDA at today&#39;s prices? Without examining the company in detail (and it is a good company) the price to sales ratio above 35x alone is cause for alarm. Such a hefty price does not provide investors with much margin of safety. This is because out of the range of possible outcomes from very bullish to very bearish, only the most bullish of outcomes can support positive returns on this investment. Our expectation is that in the years to come this will be identified as clearly a case of overvaluation and not a prudent time to buy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f837741b36eaf4c6b33924fa92b46711\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>The Worst Offenders</h2><p>During the middle of the bull market rally in 2021, the number of social media influencers giving financial advice ballooned. It coincided with the rise in popularity of Meme stock trading and the WallStreetBets Reddit forum. <em>Come on people, it has &#34;bets&#34; in the name.</em> Many thousands of investors made &#34;investing&#34; decisions based on the information from these sources, many of which were clearly inaccurate in describing businesses and how money works.</p><p>At one point, a famous social media influencer was buying stocks based on pulling scrabble letters out of a bag to put together a ticker symbol. At the time, we identified the behavior for what it was: <strong>speculation</strong>.</p><p>GameStop (GME) was the most famous of examples during this period. The giant short position and nostalgic value of the business overlooked its financials. Investors piling into the shares caused a short squeeze that morphed into a gamma squeeze. Shares rose by a staggering 12,400% from mid-2020 to its peak in 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c46920cfeaf48dda03084f43ab5534\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>While the share price was volatile, financial performance was constant. GME continues to lose money due to negative net income over the past 4 years while revenues steadily decline. Without a major facelift, the business model is due for extinction in the same way that video rental stores were. The company is cash flow negative, EBITDA negative, and estimates don&#39;t expect that to change in the near term.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/879d3f85fc84588de339aef35acbea6b\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Seeking Alpha analysts have been very bearish on the stock and yet it continues to trade at 5.3x book value. <em>Don&#39;t lose money.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d07ad9b3e61cbbf4222c5ff5ff055663\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"652\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>The examples were even worse than this in the first half of 2021. Investors turned their focus to penny stocks next. Viper Networks (OTCPK:VPER), Icon Media Holdings (OTCPK:ICNM), and KYN Capital Group (OTCPK:KYNC) were a few examples. In many cases, <strong>the penny stock businesses didn&#39;t even exist anymore</strong>. That didn&#39;t stop investors from bidding up shares to thousands of % gains:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829e4b21336143be0c4841e73d87aba9\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a8214ae8fc599cc7e8810d60a3c56cb\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122d3673bcdb018a5842df815b373de3\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>In most of these cases, the fundamental value of the business, if there was one, was nearly zero. As a whole, these less-than-micro caps went full circle from worthless, to insanity, to worthless. <em>Don&#39;t lose money.</em></p><h2>The Difference Between Dip and Downfall</h2><p>It&#39;s much easier to avoid losing money when the business that we buy is turning a profit. Most Seeking Alpha members likely avoided the pitfalls of these egregious speculations in non-existent companies. But many have been surprised by the weak performance of widely covered companies that do make a profit. It&#39;s important, then, to distinguish the difference between what is a &#34;dip,&#34; as described as market mispricing, and a &#34;downfall&#34; from which the company cannot recover except for very extended periods of time.</p><p>Apple (AAPL) is a fantastic example. The shares lost over 70% in the wake of the 2000 crash. We know of one particular AAPL shareholder who decided to sell over 100,000 shares during that correction, a position that would be worth over $17 million today. That was a <em>dip</em>.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/982fa5ce25603a15283497bc95a038c8\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>It requires careful due diligence in that moment to know if the company is worth holding for the long term. If we were not willing to do the research we simply would not invest in individual companies. But this example does illustrate the importance of <em>buying great companies for a reasonable price</em>. Prior to the decline, AAPL traded up to a price to sales ratio of 3.5x.</p><p>At the time, the company&#39;s normal PS ratio was around 0.5x. This should have served as a warning to investors that the price does not provide a margin of safety. A forwarding looking investor that had invested when the share price was between $0.2-0.3 in 1996-1998 could have the cost basis and emotional control to withstand the 70% decline in 2000-01. An investor buying at $1.00 a share will fare far less well.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596f500adb4ac748f464f98c9e4dd33f\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>The Efficient Market Hypothesis says that the share price set by the market reflects the information and knowledge available at the time, resulting in an always fair price. Related, market participants often cite price as an indicator of future company performance. It is a basis for technical analysis and supports the idea of value traps. Our perspective differs somewhat.</p><p>We believe there are times when the market fairly prices company stock, there are times when price is indicating expected weakness, and there are value traps. But we believe the market does not always fairly value company shares and we think the data above supports that view.</p><p>One such example that we can point to is that of Comcast (CMCSA). We published a bullish stance on CMCSA in October. This happened to coincide with a turn in the overall market. Our article came very close to the intermediate bottom in CMCSA&#39;s share price, a sheer coincidence. But the fact is that shares had been falling 53% for 405 days when we initiated our bullish position. Since then, shares have traded up 38%. We reached our bullish conclusion by doing the due diligence and determining a fair price.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c79e95c095182f3e331a088e941034\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Another example is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LANDP\">Gladstone Land Corp</a>. (LAND). While the overwhelming majority of SA analysts were positive on the stock, <em>we were solely bearish</em>. Our article is the only sell rating since January 2022:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb002d897bd8b1f9edd91dafdb884c82\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1158\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>The consensus view of the company was that it makes for a great inflation hedge and the U.S. was experiencing significant inflation. In our thesis, we acknowledged the merits of LAND being a well managed farmland REIT as an inflation hedge. But we pointed out the unreasonable valuation of the shares which we believed to be a result of few options in the equity space to invest in farmland and exuberance for the asset class. In the U.S., only two REITs offer investors farmland exposure which are FPI and LAND.</p><p>We pointed out that even LAND itself thought that its shares were overvalued. This is what we wrote:</p><blockquote>What&#39;s worse is that the company&#39;s own estimated NAV per share is $13.80, <strong>54% below the share price.</strong></blockquote><p>At first, it looked like we were wrong when shares continued to rally 35%, a perfect example of the <em>market being irrational longer than we can remain solvent</em> (to adapt from John Maynard Keynes). We were too gun-shy to short the shares but we should have. Since publication, the shares have declined by 49.6%. The company&#39;s own estimate of NAV per share is now $17.12 which is above the share price of $15.39. The shares are starting to become interesting with the AFFO yield of 4.6% above its normal AFFO yield of 4.2%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e619335f4dd6fd3d17fd2900b4fa19b1\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"478\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Another equity that we were confident to avoid was Beyond Meat (BYND). Our thesis was that the company was losing cash and its negative net income would continue to decline which was eroding shareholder equity. Looking at the market, we were skeptical that the brand could turnaround margins due to apathetic consumers. It was a prudent decision, as shares have declined by 80% since.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409af8f1a9059017289957a24855bfa9\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f789fc86dd708d51ac7a4aa45cb1fb2c\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>During the past 3 years, there have been many widely covered equities that we did not buy. For over a year we looked foolish and it certainty felt like it, too. Two such examples are <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications (ZM) and Peloton Interactive (PTON). Both stocks rose by hundreds of percent in a matter of months, only to slowly and painfully sink below their pre-covid prices.</p><p>Our assessment of stocks like these at the time was that valuations were not supported by the growth which was a function of excessive liquidity and an acute surge in consumer demand, both temporary. Will these companies return to their former glory? One day, perhaps, they can recover like AAPL. But for those that subscribe to that bull case, the time to invest would be now, not 2 years ago.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec7c7b7c2629f3d7b81aabee6425792\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e81032cb8ff48a79cdb18a57bacf49a9\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>This would not be a fair assessment without acknowledging our mistakes. We have made plenty of bad calls, some of which are experiencing a &#34;dip&#34; while others are in downfall. One such example is our bull call on wheat futures. Our thesis was that wheat shortages would continue to support elevated prices, in part as a consequence of the war in Ukraine.</p><p>That thesis has proven incorrect. Despite low inventories, poor crop conditions in major growing regions of the world, and war in Ukraine continuing no such global shortage manifested. We identified that our thesis was incorrect in September 2021 and updated readers that we were closing our position. The WEAT ETF had declined by 22% but we were able to offset some of the losses with our covered call options.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeb5b0484cbbe8093a65ece4f1670ba\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>In pure irony, The Economist published a magazine cover titled &#34;The Coming Food Catastrophe&#34; mere days before our publication. We saw the cover which gave us pause on our thesis as a contrarian indicator. Ultimately, the fundamentals had us convinced that our gut feeling was wrong. That contrarian indicator turned out to be bitterly accurate at identifying the top in commodity prices. It stands as a testament to the power of assessing market sentiment. Often, when fundamentals are the most bullish that is precisely the time to sell. The same can be true about the opposite.</p><p>In contrast, we remain bullish on one stock that believe continues to dip which is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings (PYPL). We believed the stock was overvalued prior to the 2022 and did not start a position until early 2022. That patience proved to be prudent. Shares have been relentlessly falling, down 80% from its peak, 37% from our publication, and a shocking <strong>26% from the COVID crash lows</strong>.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d63693476f252849627d925445ea20b\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Yet, over the last three years the company has grown free cash flow by 21.6%. Shares now trade at an adjusted operating earnings yield of 7.4% and a price to sales of 2.44x. Analysts expect revenue and earnings growth to continue slightly below trend. Shares have now reached our &#34;strong buy&#34; territory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729b504baaf6869faf68751cc75e99ae\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93a178c91ace887f30197d3d02e7e7c7\" alt=\"FAST Graphs\" title=\"FAST Graphs\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"/><span>FAST Graphs</span></p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Here we are, weathering the dip in names like PYPL. This is due to our conviction in the positions, a product of our due diligence. We remember Mr. Buffett&#39;s words always. When evaluating any company, we seek to answer the question: where can we lose money?</p><p>Making prudent investment decisions is required to be successful in the long term. This requires the right measure of self discipline, patience, and margin of safety. In general, the market moves up. It&#39;s difficult enough to achieve alpha without the impediment of making poor investment decisions. The first step is knowing how not to lose money.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Our Favorite Warren Buffett Advice: Do Not Lose Money</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOur Favorite Warren Buffett Advice: Do Not Lose Money\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-28 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4607791-our-favorite-warren-buffett-advice-do-not-lose-money><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWhen Warren Buffett said \"Never lose money,\" what did he mean?Our portfolio performance depends greatly on avoiding poor investments that are not prudent.Buying companies at a fair price makes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4607791-our-favorite-warren-buffett-advice-do-not-lose-money\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4512":"苹果概念","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H",".DJI":"道琼斯","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4212":"包装食品与肉类",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4227":"交易和支付处理服务","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","BK4100":"有线和卫星","LU1267930573.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"AA\" (SGD) ACC A","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4234":"特殊用途房地产信托","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4607791-our-favorite-warren-buffett-advice-do-not-lose-money","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2338048773","content_text":"SummaryWhen Warren Buffett said \"Never lose money,\" what did he mean?Our portfolio performance depends greatly on avoiding poor investments that are not prudent.Buying companies at a fair price makes it much easier to withstand inevitable volatility.Price action does not always mean what you think it means, sometimes the market gets it wrong.Daniel MegiasIt is widely considered that Warren Buffett has said:Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1.Taken literally, this advice is near impossible to follow for investors. The simple fact is that stock prices are volatile and no one has the ability to time exact tops or bottoms.But that's not what Buffett means. In fact, he acknowledges that prudent investors will often have to suffer through significant share price volatility. His advice:You've got to be prepared when you buy a stock having them down 50 percent or more and be comfortable with it - as long as you're comfortable with the holding.Mr. Buffett has pointed out before that even Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) stock has declined by up to 50% several times in the past but that wasn't reason to sell. In fact, they did the opposite and added to their exposure. This has not prevented the shares from gaining 168,000% over the past 4 decades.Data by YChartsData by YChartsSo what does this mean, exactly?Mr. Buffett is referring to the value of the underlying business. Price is a fickle thing, value is not. Price can be discovered in an instant simply by searching for a ticker on Seeking Alpha or any other financial market site. Value requires much more effort and work to determine. In fact, it is difficult for any particular person to know everything there is to know about a company. Nonetheless, it is possible to know enough to be successful, and Mr. Buffett is living proof of this. Mr. Buffett is telling us not to make poor decisions that lead to losing money.Don't Be StupidThe way we view Buffett's advice can be said another way: don't be stupid. We believe that one of the best ways to manage our portfolio is by simply avoiding the poor investments. The GraniteShares XOUT U.S. Large Cap ETF (XOUT) is a fund based on this approach with the strategy of investing in large cap stocks excluding those that are expected to underperform. Up until the equity peak in 2021, the strategy was working. Today, it's mostly even with the S&P 500. The fund carries a hefty expense ratio of 0.6% which contributes to this outcome.Data by YChartsThe advice \"do not lose money\" means to invest prudently. This requires due diligence, self discipline, and knowledge of business. This is a list of common investing habits that are not prudent (i.e. stupid):Investing in businesses that one does not understandInvesting in businesses that were simply recommended by othersInvesting in good businesses at the wrong priceUsing too much leverage (including options)Investing for the wrong time-frameThere is a fine line between investing and speculating in equity markets. Speculation is merely a sophisticated term for gambling. Mr. Buffett is saying, don't gamble if you don't want to lose money.There has been much speculation over the past few years and speculation continues today. In recent headlines, NVDA shares have soared on strong guidance. Unfortunately, we have seen reports of life-altering losses on the short side of NVDA. Many of these trades involve leverage including options. Hindsight is 20/20 and there was no knowing where the share price would go. But let's call a spade a spade; this was gambling and it's not likely something that Warren Buffett would put his money in.Data by YChartsOn the flip side, is it prudent to buy NVDA at today's prices? Without examining the company in detail (and it is a good company) the price to sales ratio above 35x alone is cause for alarm. Such a hefty price does not provide investors with much margin of safety. This is because out of the range of possible outcomes from very bullish to very bearish, only the most bullish of outcomes can support positive returns on this investment. Our expectation is that in the years to come this will be identified as clearly a case of overvaluation and not a prudent time to buy.Data by YChartsThe Worst OffendersDuring the middle of the bull market rally in 2021, the number of social media influencers giving financial advice ballooned. It coincided with the rise in popularity of Meme stock trading and the WallStreetBets Reddit forum. Come on people, it has \"bets\" in the name. Many thousands of investors made \"investing\" decisions based on the information from these sources, many of which were clearly inaccurate in describing businesses and how money works.At one point, a famous social media influencer was buying stocks based on pulling scrabble letters out of a bag to put together a ticker symbol. At the time, we identified the behavior for what it was: speculation.GameStop (GME) was the most famous of examples during this period. The giant short position and nostalgic value of the business overlooked its financials. Investors piling into the shares caused a short squeeze that morphed into a gamma squeeze. Shares rose by a staggering 12,400% from mid-2020 to its peak in 2021.Data by YChartsWhile the share price was volatile, financial performance was constant. GME continues to lose money due to negative net income over the past 4 years while revenues steadily decline. Without a major facelift, the business model is due for extinction in the same way that video rental stores were. The company is cash flow negative, EBITDA negative, and estimates don't expect that to change in the near term.Data by YChartsSeeking Alpha analysts have been very bearish on the stock and yet it continues to trade at 5.3x book value. Don't lose money.Seeking AlphaThe examples were even worse than this in the first half of 2021. Investors turned their focus to penny stocks next. Viper Networks (OTCPK:VPER), Icon Media Holdings (OTCPK:ICNM), and KYN Capital Group (OTCPK:KYNC) were a few examples. In many cases, the penny stock businesses didn't even exist anymore. That didn't stop investors from bidding up shares to thousands of % gains:Data by YChartsData by YChartsData by YChartsIn most of these cases, the fundamental value of the business, if there was one, was nearly zero. As a whole, these less-than-micro caps went full circle from worthless, to insanity, to worthless. Don't lose money.The Difference Between Dip and DownfallIt's much easier to avoid losing money when the business that we buy is turning a profit. Most Seeking Alpha members likely avoided the pitfalls of these egregious speculations in non-existent companies. But many have been surprised by the weak performance of widely covered companies that do make a profit. It's important, then, to distinguish the difference between what is a \"dip,\" as described as market mispricing, and a \"downfall\" from which the company cannot recover except for very extended periods of time.Apple (AAPL) is a fantastic example. The shares lost over 70% in the wake of the 2000 crash. We know of one particular AAPL shareholder who decided to sell over 100,000 shares during that correction, a position that would be worth over $17 million today. That was a dip.Data by YChartsIt requires careful due diligence in that moment to know if the company is worth holding for the long term. If we were not willing to do the research we simply would not invest in individual companies. But this example does illustrate the importance of buying great companies for a reasonable price. Prior to the decline, AAPL traded up to a price to sales ratio of 3.5x.At the time, the company's normal PS ratio was around 0.5x. This should have served as a warning to investors that the price does not provide a margin of safety. A forwarding looking investor that had invested when the share price was between $0.2-0.3 in 1996-1998 could have the cost basis and emotional control to withstand the 70% decline in 2000-01. An investor buying at $1.00 a share will fare far less well.Data by YChartsThe Efficient Market Hypothesis says that the share price set by the market reflects the information and knowledge available at the time, resulting in an always fair price. Related, market participants often cite price as an indicator of future company performance. It is a basis for technical analysis and supports the idea of value traps. Our perspective differs somewhat.We believe there are times when the market fairly prices company stock, there are times when price is indicating expected weakness, and there are value traps. But we believe the market does not always fairly value company shares and we think the data above supports that view.One such example that we can point to is that of Comcast (CMCSA). We published a bullish stance on CMCSA in October. This happened to coincide with a turn in the overall market. Our article came very close to the intermediate bottom in CMCSA's share price, a sheer coincidence. But the fact is that shares had been falling 53% for 405 days when we initiated our bullish position. Since then, shares have traded up 38%. We reached our bullish conclusion by doing the due diligence and determining a fair price.Seeking AlphaAnother example is Gladstone Land Corp. (LAND). While the overwhelming majority of SA analysts were positive on the stock, we were solely bearish. Our article is the only sell rating since January 2022:Seeking AlphaThe consensus view of the company was that it makes for a great inflation hedge and the U.S. was experiencing significant inflation. In our thesis, we acknowledged the merits of LAND being a well managed farmland REIT as an inflation hedge. But we pointed out the unreasonable valuation of the shares which we believed to be a result of few options in the equity space to invest in farmland and exuberance for the asset class. In the U.S., only two REITs offer investors farmland exposure which are FPI and LAND.We pointed out that even LAND itself thought that its shares were overvalued. This is what we wrote:What's worse is that the company's own estimated NAV per share is $13.80, 54% below the share price.At first, it looked like we were wrong when shares continued to rally 35%, a perfect example of the market being irrational longer than we can remain solvent (to adapt from John Maynard Keynes). We were too gun-shy to short the shares but we should have. Since publication, the shares have declined by 49.6%. The company's own estimate of NAV per share is now $17.12 which is above the share price of $15.39. The shares are starting to become interesting with the AFFO yield of 4.6% above its normal AFFO yield of 4.2%.Seeking AlphaAnother equity that we were confident to avoid was Beyond Meat (BYND). Our thesis was that the company was losing cash and its negative net income would continue to decline which was eroding shareholder equity. Looking at the market, we were skeptical that the brand could turnaround margins due to apathetic consumers. It was a prudent decision, as shares have declined by 80% since.Seeking AlphaData by YChartsDuring the past 3 years, there have been many widely covered equities that we did not buy. For over a year we looked foolish and it certainty felt like it, too. Two such examples are Zoom Video Communications (ZM) and Peloton Interactive (PTON). Both stocks rose by hundreds of percent in a matter of months, only to slowly and painfully sink below their pre-covid prices.Our assessment of stocks like these at the time was that valuations were not supported by the growth which was a function of excessive liquidity and an acute surge in consumer demand, both temporary. Will these companies return to their former glory? One day, perhaps, they can recover like AAPL. But for those that subscribe to that bull case, the time to invest would be now, not 2 years ago.Data by YChartsData by YChartsThis would not be a fair assessment without acknowledging our mistakes. We have made plenty of bad calls, some of which are experiencing a \"dip\" while others are in downfall. One such example is our bull call on wheat futures. Our thesis was that wheat shortages would continue to support elevated prices, in part as a consequence of the war in Ukraine.That thesis has proven incorrect. Despite low inventories, poor crop conditions in major growing regions of the world, and war in Ukraine continuing no such global shortage manifested. We identified that our thesis was incorrect in September 2021 and updated readers that we were closing our position. The WEAT ETF had declined by 22% but we were able to offset some of the losses with our covered call options.Seeking AlphaIn pure irony, The Economist published a magazine cover titled \"The Coming Food Catastrophe\" mere days before our publication. We saw the cover which gave us pause on our thesis as a contrarian indicator. Ultimately, the fundamentals had us convinced that our gut feeling was wrong. That contrarian indicator turned out to be bitterly accurate at identifying the top in commodity prices. It stands as a testament to the power of assessing market sentiment. Often, when fundamentals are the most bullish that is precisely the time to sell. The same can be true about the opposite.In contrast, we remain bullish on one stock that believe continues to dip which is PayPal Holdings (PYPL). We believed the stock was overvalued prior to the 2022 and did not start a position until early 2022. That patience proved to be prudent. Shares have been relentlessly falling, down 80% from its peak, 37% from our publication, and a shocking 26% from the COVID crash lows.Seeking AlphaYet, over the last three years the company has grown free cash flow by 21.6%. Shares now trade at an adjusted operating earnings yield of 7.4% and a price to sales of 2.44x. Analysts expect revenue and earnings growth to continue slightly below trend. Shares have now reached our \"strong buy\" territory.Data by YChartsFAST GraphsConclusionHere we are, weathering the dip in names like PYPL. This is due to our conviction in the positions, a product of our due diligence. We remember Mr. Buffett's words always. When evaluating any company, we seek to answer the question: where can we lose money?Making prudent investment decisions is required to be successful in the long term. This requires the right measure of self discipline, patience, and margin of safety. In general, the market moves up. It's difficult enough to achieve alpha without the impediment of making poor investment decisions. The first step is knowing how not to lose money.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026505757,"gmtCreate":1653397406579,"gmtModify":1676535273948,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile] [Smile] [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026505757","repostId":"2237359956","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2237359956","pubTimestamp":1653394228,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2237359956?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-24 20:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When Will The S&P 500 Recover? History Offers Some Clues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237359956","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring l","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring late-day recovery going into monthly options expiration.</li><li>As of writing this, stocks are down about 18% for the year.</li><li>Questions that are top of mind for many investors are how deep the decline will go and when stocks are likely to recover their all-time highs.</li><li>To help answer these questions, I built a simple model that can handicap market recovery times based on past data.</li><li>Some analysis on a few different ways this selloff could play out, and on intelligent risk taking in general.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a137319cbf559dd70472d7a2d175873\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mlenny/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p>Are you curious when your 401(K) balance is likely to recover from the current market selloff? You&#39;re not alone. After a powerful three-year bull market, the tide has decisively turned against stocks – and the high-flying technology sector in particular. As of my writing this, the S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down roughly 18% for the year, erasing trillions in market value for investors. But history has shown that diversified investors who have stayed the course have always come out well in the end – if they were able to hold on through some nasty bear markets. For the brave, there are always trading opportunities to take advantage of highs and lows as well.</p><p><b>When Will Stocks Recover?</b></p><p>Stocks don&#39;t only go up. I pulled some data for the S&amp;P 500, and it shows that since the end of World War II, there have been 84 pullbacks of 5% or more, 29 corrections of 10% or more, and nine bear markets of 20% or more, three of which saw declines of 40% or more.</p><p>This works out to a pullback occurring on average every 0.9 years, a correction every 2.7 years, a bear market every 8.6 years or so, and a major bear market occurring every 25.7 years (this data is from Guggenheim Investments, and as of March of this year. Also note that the data is based on closing prices).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d63321deedc784c80f6d7f7b291b262\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Stock Market Decline Frequency and Recovery Time (Guggenheim Investments)</span></p><p>By this measure, US stocks have been a pretty solid wealth creation tool. I will note, however, that two of the major bear markets have come since the turn of the century, making comparisons to the post-war era a little dicier than they would be if you&#39;re looking to retire on your money. Also, the post-war era was fairly prosperous – including the Great Depression in your dataset makes bear markets and corrections much more frequent.</p><p>If you&#39;re looking at your portfolio now and wondering when it will go back to where it was in January, then I have a model based on historical data that will help you make an educated guess. I tested out a few different approaches. First I made a linear regression with this data, but it didn&#39;t fit very well with past declines. I tried an exponential regression, but it gave some crazy answers as well. The best fit I found was to make a weighted regression. The idea is that pullbacks are frequent, while bear markets are relatively rare, so I weight the model by frequency.</p><p>Here&#39;s what I got.</p><p><b>Drawdown Recovery Regression (Linear, Weighted)</b></p><p>x=drawdown%</p><p>y=months to recovery</p><p>y= 1.13x -6.13</p><p><b>How to use this model</b>: Simply plug in the size of the decline into X (but drop the percentage). Then, subtract the time elapsed since the previous peak.</p><p>So, for a 20% bear market decline, the model predicts that it will take ((1.13 *20) -6.13)= 16.5 months from the previous peak to recover. The decline has been going on for ~4.5 months, so the model predicts that stocks will be back at all-time highs in about 12 months if the future looks like the past (note that I&#39;m rounding).</p><p>This isn&#39;t really scientifically sound since I&#39;m introducing hindsight bias into the model by comparing an ongoing drawdown to past completed ones, but as a tool to make an educated guess about the future, it&#39;s not bad at all.</p><p>Deeper declines mean longer recoveries. If the decline goes 40%, the model predicts that stocks won&#39;t retake their all-time highs for about 35 months.</p><p><b>Where&#39;s The Market Headed Next?</b></p><p>No two market declines are identical, and to understand what might happen next, you have to fundamentally analyze what&#39;s going on in the world.</p><p>The above Guggenheim piece, as well as research I&#39;ve read from Bridgewater, separates corrections and bear markets into two different categories. Typically corrections are caused by changes in valuation multiples (the PE ratio) of the market, while bear markets are driven by declines in earnings (recessions).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d480a109b64a7665aad15131e86974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Earnings Vs. Multiples (Bridgewater)</span></p><p>The key for investors here - earnings. The stock market has felt like it&#39;s gone to hell in a handbag this year, but earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023 have barely budged. There are four economic quadrants here that will determine the direction of the stock market.</p><p><b>1. Above-Trend Growth, Above-Trend Inflation</b></p><p>Earnings estimates hold up into 2022 and 2023, and the market falling is simply because the Fed fighting inflation has caused multiples to fall. In this scenario, a strong labor market and pent-up savings keep the economy humming along, giving the Fed plenty of latitude to hike rates and bring inflation down. This would mean the current price is about right for stocks. This economy would be above-trend growth and above-trend inflation. Another word for this would be a &#34;soft landing.&#34;</p><p><b>2. Below-Trend Growth, Below-Trend Inflation</b></p><p>Earnings estimates don&#39;t hold up in this scenario, but inflation falls due to recession. In this scenario, prices stop their rapid increases or even fall a little, but earnings estimates are way too high and stocks need to fall another 10% or a bit more. This would be below-trend growth and below-trend inflation. This would be a &#34;hard landing.&#34;</p><p><b>3. Above-Trend Growth, Below Trend-Inflation</b></p><p>The best-case scenario is that earnings hold up and inflation falls. This scenario isn&#39;t impossible, but would likely need the Russia-Ukraine war to resolve, China to drop zero-COVID, and some solid gains in both labor force participation and tech-driven worker productivity in the US and EU. This would be above-trend growth and below-trend inflation. I don&#39;t think this scenario is super realistic, and the market doesn&#39;t think this is likely, but it&#39;s worth discussing, as it would lead stocks to retake their all-time highs. This isn&#39;t super common, but this was the driver of the huge gains in the 1990s.</p><p><b>4. Below-Trend Growth, Above Trend Inflation</b></p><p>The worst-case realistic scenario is stagflation, where earnings drop and inflation stays stubbornly high. This would be below-trend growth and above-trend inflation. In this scenario, the Fed has a terrible choice between stoking inflation and causing unemployment and ends up with a lot of both. In a full-blown stagflation scenario, stocks likely fall about 40% off their high due to lower earnings and a lower multiple paid on those earnings. This happened last in the 1970s.</p><p><b>Where Do Stocks Go Next?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8a26f3e897d5f54eb614f5043ed50d8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>I think a lot of investors feel that something is rotten in the State of Denmark with this market. Stocks are much higher than they were pre-pandemic, but are earnings sustainable?</p><p>Earnings estimates are higher than 2021, but the economy lacks the massive stimulus that created these conditions in the first place. Without stimulus, I believe earnings should be lower than they were in 2021, and the market seems to be starting to agree. A more interesting question in my mind revolves around inflation. The rate of price increases is grabbing headlines, but the market for inflation-protected TIPS (TIP) is remarkably calm about this, pricing an inflation breakeven of only 2.55% for the next 10 years. If you think this is too low, you can buy TIPS and commodities and you&#39;ll make money. Inflation doesn&#39;t seem to be slowing too fast, as gas prices certainly are continuing to rise.</p><p>Comparing prices for the bond and stock markets implies we may be in for somewhat of a hard landing, but this happening will solve the inflation problem. I don&#39;t know, but it&#39;s interesting to see indicators like these contradict each other.</p><p>This week will likely give more clues on earnings growth, with earnings from the likes of Costco (COST), Best Buy (BBY), and Nordstrom (JWN). The Fed also is due to release minutes on Wednesday, giving a picture on inflation.</p><p><b>Risk Management Is A Key Life Skill</b></p><p>Risk-taking isn&#39;t really something that&#39;s taught in school, yet affluent households are expected to have six to seven figures invested in the financial markets, where their retirement fortunes often fluctuate by tens of thousands of dollars every day.</p><p>Risk management challenges are everywhere.</p><p>For today&#39;s 18-year-olds, the system is set up so you can borrow $100,000 or more to go to college, where you&#39;re expected to make long-term bets on what major to pick and what career they should go into. Borrowing money is a lot easier than making correspondingly accurate analyses on economics, demographics, and future business trends, and this is one reason why we have a student debt issue in America. After graduation, the risk management challenges only increase. If you played ball in college and weren&#39;t drafted, do you try to go pro? Do you start a business, and if so should you borrow money to do so? Are you marrying the right person at 24-years-old? Should you bid $50,000 over asking and waive inspections for a three-bedroom house in the suburbs? And the stock market is the cherry on top, providing real-time feedback to your decision making to the tune of thousands of dollars made or lost for affluent households, every waking hour of your day.</p><p>You might be reading this in Manhattan, but I live in Texas. Texas is a place known for colorful risk-taking, whether it&#39;s in the oil business, in real estate, or at the poker table. Some strike it rich – while others fail in spectacular fashion. Here a lot of restaurants are closed on Sundays and there aren&#39;t the same career opportunities there are on the East Coast or in the Bay Area, but Texas is a continual education on risk-taking. And if we&#39;re being honest, given enough time, I believe smart risk-taking + moderate earnings will trump high W-2 earnings + bad risk-taking every time. This weekend&#39;s PGA Championship was an absolute master class in risk management, with Justin Thomas making 2 birdies in a 3-hole playoff to beat Will Zalatoris for a seven-figure difference in prize money.</p><p>Here in Texas, the majority of local multimillionaires I&#39;ve come to know have a deep distrust of the stock market. They prefer to invest in land, businesses, and commercial real estate. But with a solid understanding of how markets work and how to manage risk, I believe the stock market offers the best way to grow your money over time that has ever been invented. Many of the friends I went to school with now have mortgages and spouses, while I&#39;ve racked up airline miles. While I don&#39;t see as many of these old friends as often, I hope their risk management skills are up to par – that they can take enough risk to succeed and live the American Dream while not taking so much to wipe out.</p><p><b>Bottom Line</b></p><p>Stocks have fallen sharply from their highs, and it&#39;s not clear when they will bottom, although we can make some educated guesses based on past history and the current state of the economy. For those able to manage risk well, the ongoing declines in stocks represent a likely opportunity to buy assets at attractive prices over the coming months, especially if stocks fall sharply from here. History shows that stocks are a good investment for the long run, but the current decline has the potential to amplify the threats and opportunities created by the current economic environment.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will The S&P 500 Recover? History Offers Some Clues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will The S&P 500 Recover? History Offers Some Clues\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-24 20:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513853-s-and-p-500-recovery-history><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring late-day recovery going into monthly options expiration.As of writing this, stocks are down about 18%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513853-s-and-p-500-recovery-history\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513853-s-and-p-500-recovery-history","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2237359956","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring late-day recovery going into monthly options expiration.As of writing this, stocks are down about 18% for the year.Questions that are top of mind for many investors are how deep the decline will go and when stocks are likely to recover their all-time highs.To help answer these questions, I built a simple model that can handicap market recovery times based on past data.Some analysis on a few different ways this selloff could play out, and on intelligent risk taking in general.Mlenny/E+ via Getty ImagesAre you curious when your 401(K) balance is likely to recover from the current market selloff? You're not alone. After a powerful three-year bull market, the tide has decisively turned against stocks – and the high-flying technology sector in particular. As of my writing this, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down roughly 18% for the year, erasing trillions in market value for investors. But history has shown that diversified investors who have stayed the course have always come out well in the end – if they were able to hold on through some nasty bear markets. For the brave, there are always trading opportunities to take advantage of highs and lows as well.When Will Stocks Recover?Stocks don't only go up. I pulled some data for the S&P 500, and it shows that since the end of World War II, there have been 84 pullbacks of 5% or more, 29 corrections of 10% or more, and nine bear markets of 20% or more, three of which saw declines of 40% or more.This works out to a pullback occurring on average every 0.9 years, a correction every 2.7 years, a bear market every 8.6 years or so, and a major bear market occurring every 25.7 years (this data is from Guggenheim Investments, and as of March of this year. Also note that the data is based on closing prices).Stock Market Decline Frequency and Recovery Time (Guggenheim Investments)By this measure, US stocks have been a pretty solid wealth creation tool. I will note, however, that two of the major bear markets have come since the turn of the century, making comparisons to the post-war era a little dicier than they would be if you're looking to retire on your money. Also, the post-war era was fairly prosperous – including the Great Depression in your dataset makes bear markets and corrections much more frequent.If you're looking at your portfolio now and wondering when it will go back to where it was in January, then I have a model based on historical data that will help you make an educated guess. I tested out a few different approaches. First I made a linear regression with this data, but it didn't fit very well with past declines. I tried an exponential regression, but it gave some crazy answers as well. The best fit I found was to make a weighted regression. The idea is that pullbacks are frequent, while bear markets are relatively rare, so I weight the model by frequency.Here's what I got.Drawdown Recovery Regression (Linear, Weighted)x=drawdown%y=months to recoveryy= 1.13x -6.13How to use this model: Simply plug in the size of the decline into X (but drop the percentage). Then, subtract the time elapsed since the previous peak.So, for a 20% bear market decline, the model predicts that it will take ((1.13 *20) -6.13)= 16.5 months from the previous peak to recover. The decline has been going on for ~4.5 months, so the model predicts that stocks will be back at all-time highs in about 12 months if the future looks like the past (note that I'm rounding).This isn't really scientifically sound since I'm introducing hindsight bias into the model by comparing an ongoing drawdown to past completed ones, but as a tool to make an educated guess about the future, it's not bad at all.Deeper declines mean longer recoveries. If the decline goes 40%, the model predicts that stocks won't retake their all-time highs for about 35 months.Where's The Market Headed Next?No two market declines are identical, and to understand what might happen next, you have to fundamentally analyze what's going on in the world.The above Guggenheim piece, as well as research I've read from Bridgewater, separates corrections and bear markets into two different categories. Typically corrections are caused by changes in valuation multiples (the PE ratio) of the market, while bear markets are driven by declines in earnings (recessions).Earnings Vs. Multiples (Bridgewater)The key for investors here - earnings. The stock market has felt like it's gone to hell in a handbag this year, but earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023 have barely budged. There are four economic quadrants here that will determine the direction of the stock market.1. Above-Trend Growth, Above-Trend InflationEarnings estimates hold up into 2022 and 2023, and the market falling is simply because the Fed fighting inflation has caused multiples to fall. In this scenario, a strong labor market and pent-up savings keep the economy humming along, giving the Fed plenty of latitude to hike rates and bring inflation down. This would mean the current price is about right for stocks. This economy would be above-trend growth and above-trend inflation. Another word for this would be a \"soft landing.\"2. Below-Trend Growth, Below-Trend InflationEarnings estimates don't hold up in this scenario, but inflation falls due to recession. In this scenario, prices stop their rapid increases or even fall a little, but earnings estimates are way too high and stocks need to fall another 10% or a bit more. This would be below-trend growth and below-trend inflation. This would be a \"hard landing.\"3. Above-Trend Growth, Below Trend-InflationThe best-case scenario is that earnings hold up and inflation falls. This scenario isn't impossible, but would likely need the Russia-Ukraine war to resolve, China to drop zero-COVID, and some solid gains in both labor force participation and tech-driven worker productivity in the US and EU. This would be above-trend growth and below-trend inflation. I don't think this scenario is super realistic, and the market doesn't think this is likely, but it's worth discussing, as it would lead stocks to retake their all-time highs. This isn't super common, but this was the driver of the huge gains in the 1990s.4. Below-Trend Growth, Above Trend InflationThe worst-case realistic scenario is stagflation, where earnings drop and inflation stays stubbornly high. This would be below-trend growth and above-trend inflation. In this scenario, the Fed has a terrible choice between stoking inflation and causing unemployment and ends up with a lot of both. In a full-blown stagflation scenario, stocks likely fall about 40% off their high due to lower earnings and a lower multiple paid on those earnings. This happened last in the 1970s.Where Do Stocks Go Next?Data by YChartsI think a lot of investors feel that something is rotten in the State of Denmark with this market. Stocks are much higher than they were pre-pandemic, but are earnings sustainable?Earnings estimates are higher than 2021, but the economy lacks the massive stimulus that created these conditions in the first place. Without stimulus, I believe earnings should be lower than they were in 2021, and the market seems to be starting to agree. A more interesting question in my mind revolves around inflation. The rate of price increases is grabbing headlines, but the market for inflation-protected TIPS (TIP) is remarkably calm about this, pricing an inflation breakeven of only 2.55% for the next 10 years. If you think this is too low, you can buy TIPS and commodities and you'll make money. Inflation doesn't seem to be slowing too fast, as gas prices certainly are continuing to rise.Comparing prices for the bond and stock markets implies we may be in for somewhat of a hard landing, but this happening will solve the inflation problem. I don't know, but it's interesting to see indicators like these contradict each other.This week will likely give more clues on earnings growth, with earnings from the likes of Costco (COST), Best Buy (BBY), and Nordstrom (JWN). The Fed also is due to release minutes on Wednesday, giving a picture on inflation.Risk Management Is A Key Life SkillRisk-taking isn't really something that's taught in school, yet affluent households are expected to have six to seven figures invested in the financial markets, where their retirement fortunes often fluctuate by tens of thousands of dollars every day.Risk management challenges are everywhere.For today's 18-year-olds, the system is set up so you can borrow $100,000 or more to go to college, where you're expected to make long-term bets on what major to pick and what career they should go into. Borrowing money is a lot easier than making correspondingly accurate analyses on economics, demographics, and future business trends, and this is one reason why we have a student debt issue in America. After graduation, the risk management challenges only increase. If you played ball in college and weren't drafted, do you try to go pro? Do you start a business, and if so should you borrow money to do so? Are you marrying the right person at 24-years-old? Should you bid $50,000 over asking and waive inspections for a three-bedroom house in the suburbs? And the stock market is the cherry on top, providing real-time feedback to your decision making to the tune of thousands of dollars made or lost for affluent households, every waking hour of your day.You might be reading this in Manhattan, but I live in Texas. Texas is a place known for colorful risk-taking, whether it's in the oil business, in real estate, or at the poker table. Some strike it rich – while others fail in spectacular fashion. Here a lot of restaurants are closed on Sundays and there aren't the same career opportunities there are on the East Coast or in the Bay Area, but Texas is a continual education on risk-taking. And if we're being honest, given enough time, I believe smart risk-taking + moderate earnings will trump high W-2 earnings + bad risk-taking every time. This weekend's PGA Championship was an absolute master class in risk management, with Justin Thomas making 2 birdies in a 3-hole playoff to beat Will Zalatoris for a seven-figure difference in prize money.Here in Texas, the majority of local multimillionaires I've come to know have a deep distrust of the stock market. They prefer to invest in land, businesses, and commercial real estate. But with a solid understanding of how markets work and how to manage risk, I believe the stock market offers the best way to grow your money over time that has ever been invented. Many of the friends I went to school with now have mortgages and spouses, while I've racked up airline miles. While I don't see as many of these old friends as often, I hope their risk management skills are up to par – that they can take enough risk to succeed and live the American Dream while not taking so much to wipe out.Bottom LineStocks have fallen sharply from their highs, and it's not clear when they will bottom, although we can make some educated guesses based on past history and the current state of the economy. For those able to manage risk well, the ongoing declines in stocks represent a likely opportunity to buy assets at attractive prices over the coming months, especially if stocks fall sharply from here. History shows that stocks are a good investment for the long run, but the current decline has the potential to amplify the threats and opportunities created by the current economic environment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088961210,"gmtCreate":1650299052201,"gmtModify":1676534690465,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well 🤔🤔🤔","listText":"Well 🤔🤔🤔","text":"Well 🤔🤔🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088961210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081129523,"gmtCreate":1650212164424,"gmtModify":1676534670072,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👀🥺🥺🥺","listText":"👀🥺🥺🥺","text":"👀🥺🥺🥺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081129523","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9083032135,"gmtCreate":1650042600040,"gmtModify":1676534635373,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good Friday&nbsp;","listText":"Good Friday&nbsp;","text":"Good Friday","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9083032135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089381264,"gmtCreate":1649952325035,"gmtModify":1676534615010,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😬😬😬","listText":"😬😬😬","text":"😬😬😬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089381264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080820259,"gmtCreate":1649866082955,"gmtModify":1676534594261,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💕💕💕💕","listText":"💕💕💕💕","text":"💕💕💕💕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080820259","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080094299,"gmtCreate":1649816527104,"gmtModify":1676534582853,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080094299","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017683148,"gmtCreate":1649772128172,"gmtModify":1676534571030,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up and away","listText":"Up up and away","text":"Up up and away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017683148","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017148450,"gmtCreate":1649759811717,"gmtModify":1676534566914,"author":{"id":"4110778780738512","authorId":"4110778780738512","name":"R147","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0e30052b3eaf3acc46334566e391e69","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👀👀👀","listText":"👀👀👀","text":"👀👀👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017148450","repostId":"9016476123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9016476123,"gmtCreate":1649229403658,"gmtModify":1676534474180,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/61ed9b39c6cbcdce6372edc1c0b48a2d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","listText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","text":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please click here to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b435c0d10e0e89ad3e06b7bbd04830","width":"2251","height":"1334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff9640a9df2f24446e07b7a9b658cb4b","width":"1200","height":"630"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/795038848b7c7b1d7dda27d92b580946","width":"1656","height":"948"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016476123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}