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Darkkon

Darkkon

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2023-05-22

It says recession is here

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-04-07

$Alibaba(BABA)$If this week cannot close above $110. You guys invested in alibaba will be welcome by weekly hidden bearish divergence. Good luck. See u guys at double digit alibaba :)

01-24

Is a good time to buy due to valuations and not because who bought. The people u mentioned have plenty of money. If Spending $200M can prob up the stock by making retailer investors fomo it's a small price to pay but I don't think that is the reason they bought it. As for china stimulus... its peanut. USD$200B can't do anything to the market.

2022-05-30

Nothing much will change within 1 to 2 years

Alibaba: The Valuation Is Just Wrong

2022-10-04

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$bullish indeed.

2022-08-06

Good bye baba. You won't be missed

Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why

2022-04-11

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$does this also subject to 30% capital gain tax from USA when they payout the dividend?

2022-04-07

‌$Alibaba(BABA)$‌Good Night Alibaba. See you at a lower price.

2022-04-01

Haha I see alot will DCA into tencent or baba or other China stocks till they get delisted due to information is considered state sensitive.

China Weighs Giving U.S. Full Access to Audits of Most Firms

2023-03-28

$Alibaba(BABA)$ splitting might be good for Alibaba itself but it is not good for stock holders. Will they get money from their own pocket to IPO each of the individual 6 groups or sell shares to fund for IPO. U tell me....

2022-10-24

$Alibaba(09988)$sell ah! Don't sell later $60 also don't have. [Happy]

2022-04-13

‌$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$‌Gogogo! Go fill $27 gap!

07-03 23:17

I'm close to 2 years with tiger. I'm still a cub

02-07

$Alibaba(09988)$ already had an run up before earnings due to government intervention. if it doesn't perform well more people will decide to cut loses or those that bought it will try break even while waiting for lower lows. due to China economy, more people are spending less while saving more and since there's major slow down in the economy cloud might possibly see no growth thus adding the possibility of baba not doing well in this earning. Other sectors that baba is in might need to pick up the slack which I think those sectors are struggling too. thus to me, high chances that baba share price will dip after reporting so-so or bad numbers. I might be wrong but I don't think my analysis is on the delusional end that baba will go $250 EOY prediction for no good reasons only just because i

01-17

The GDP growth of 5.2% should helped but due to the issuing of ultra long term bonds. It basically means. Nope... economy in China not too good

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-12-30

Woot

2023-12-30

Tiger Tycoon

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2023-12-30

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@TigerEvents:🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅

2023-12-30

Let's go!! [Miser] [Miser]

2023-12-30

Tiger Tycoon

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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close to 2 years with tiger. I'm still a cub","listText":"I'm close to 2 years with tiger. I'm still a cub","text":"I'm close to 2 years with tiger. I'm still a cub","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323561594736688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":271323072524584,"gmtCreate":1707278935940,"gmtModify":1707278940444,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Alibaba(09988)$ already had an run up before earnings due to government intervention. if it doesn't perform well more people will decide to cut loses or those that bought it will try break even while waiting for lower lows. due to China economy, more people are spending less while saving more and since there's major slow down in the economy cloud might possibly see no growth thus adding the possibility of baba not doing well in this earning. Other sectors that baba is in might need to pick up the slack which I think those sectors are struggling too. thus to me, high chances that baba share price will dip after reporting so-so or bad numbers. I might be wrong but I don't think my analysis is on the delusional end that baba will go $250 EOY prediction for no good reasons only just because i","listText":"$Alibaba(09988)$ already had an run up before earnings due to government intervention. if it doesn't perform well more people will decide to cut loses or those that bought it will try break even while waiting for lower lows. due to China economy, more people are spending less while saving more and since there's major slow down in the economy cloud might possibly see no growth thus adding the possibility of baba not doing well in this earning. Other sectors that baba is in might need to pick up the slack which I think those sectors are struggling too. thus to me, high chances that baba share price will dip after reporting so-so or bad numbers. I might be wrong but I don't think my analysis is on the delusional end that baba will go $250 EOY prediction for no good reasons only just because i","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$ already had an run up before earnings due to government intervention. if it doesn't perform well more people will decide to cut loses or those that bought it will try break even while waiting for lower lows. due to China economy, more people are spending less while saving more and since there's major slow down in the economy cloud might possibly see no growth thus adding the possibility of baba not doing well in this earning. Other sectors that baba is in might need to pick up the slack which I think those sectors are struggling too. thus to me, high chances that baba share price will dip after reporting so-so or bad numbers. I might be wrong but I don't think my analysis is on the delusional end that baba will go $250 EOY prediction for no good reasons only just because i","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271323072524584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":266508514570352,"gmtCreate":1706101307673,"gmtModify":1706101311730,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is a good time to buy due to valuations and not because who bought. The people u mentioned have plenty of money. If Spending $200M can prob up the stock by making retailer investors fomo it's a small price to pay but I don't think that is the reason they bought it. As for china stimulus... its peanut. USD$200B can't do anything to the market.","listText":"Is a good time to buy due to valuations and not because who bought. The people u mentioned have plenty of money. If Spending $200M can prob up the stock by making retailer investors fomo it's a small price to pay but I don't think that is the reason they bought it. As for china stimulus... its peanut. USD$200B can't do anything to the market.","text":"Is a good time to buy due to valuations and not because who bought. The people u mentioned have plenty of money. If Spending $200M can prob up the stock by making retailer investors fomo it's a small price to pay but I don't think that is the reason they bought it. As for china stimulus... its peanut. USD$200B can't do anything to the market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/266508514570352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":264010454294752,"gmtCreate":1705461537354,"gmtModify":1705461542306,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The GDP growth of 5.2% should helped but due to the issuing of ultra long term bonds. It basically means. Nope... economy in China not too good","listText":"The GDP growth of 5.2% should helped but due to the issuing of ultra long term bonds. It basically means. Nope... economy in China not too good","text":"The GDP growth of 5.2% should helped but due to the issuing of ultra long term bonds. It basically means. Nope... economy in China not too good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264010454294752","repostId":"2404897944","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257451395039424,"gmtCreate":1703888241548,"gmtModify":1703888246107,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woot","listText":"Woot","text":"Woot","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d2dbae523a1b97c87312d212eba435c8","width":"905","height":"2099"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257451395039424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257449846993160,"gmtCreate":1703887867853,"gmtModify":1703903166621,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Tiger Tycoon","htmlText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/5KiLYL\">Tiger Tycoon</a> Get ready to WIN up to $888!","listText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/5KiLYL\">Tiger Tycoon</a> Get ready to WIN up to $888!","text":"Find out more here:Tiger Tycoon Get ready to WIN up to $888!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257449846993160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257449867083776,"gmtCreate":1703887854270,"gmtModify":1703887858375,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257449867083776","repostId":"248312805347464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":248312805347464,"gmtCreate":1701660745864,"gmtModify":1703059991513,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅","htmlText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","listText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","text":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257449550160088,"gmtCreate":1703887791806,"gmtModify":1703887796350,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's go!!&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"Let's go!!&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"Let's go!! [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257449550160088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257448454733880,"gmtCreate":1703887660551,"gmtModify":1703903174906,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Tiger Tycoon","htmlText":"😄Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/5KpNKx\">Tiger Tycoon</a> Get ready to WIN up to $888!","listText":"😄Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/5KpNKx\">Tiger Tycoon</a> Get ready to WIN up to $888!","text":"😄Find out more here:Tiger Tycoon Get ready to WIN up to $888!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257448454733880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970580200,"gmtCreate":1684703506500,"gmtModify":1684703510786,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It says recession is here","listText":"It says recession is here","text":"It says recession is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970580200","repostId":"1155020969","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155020969","pubTimestamp":1684631237,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155020969?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-21 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hedge Funds’ Ultra-Bearish Oil Bets Signal US Recession Angst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155020969","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Non-commercial positions are near most bearish since 2011Aggressive positioning risks over-correctio","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Non-commercial positions are near most bearish since 2011</p></li><li><p>Aggressive positioning risks over-correction and volatility</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/288ca0a7fca956a53a139ca3b5e9e357\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\"/></p><p>Money managers that trade derivatives linked to oil and fuel prices are about as bearish as they’ve been in more than a decade, suggesting they’re braced for a recession that could cause contracts from crude to jet fuel to take another tumble.</p><p>The trading positions of non-commercial players such as hedge funds are near the most bearish levels since at least 2011 across a combination of all major oil contracts. And in bets that are perhaps most indicative of recession expectations, speculators’ combined views on diesel and gasoil — fuels that power the economy — are near the most bearish levels since early in the Covid-19 pandemic. </p><p>The gloom over the oil market this year has come from multiple directions, including expectations that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes will provoke a contraction and China’s less-than-booming rebound from its Covid-19 restrictions. Add in the threat of a US default if politicians fail to raise the debt ceiling and the possibility that OPEC+ may not deliver all the output cuts they’ve pledged, and traders have no shortage of bear scenarios to choose from. </p><p>“It’s pretty remarkable to see this type of positioning,” Greg Sharenow, who manages a portfolio focused on energy and commodities at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4818c1786915bb2be9c31b7d080da16\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"/></p><p> To be sure, the investors that make up the non-commercial cohort are a diverse group with a variety of approaches, ranging from hedge funds betting on macro strategies to algorithm-driven traders focused on price momentum and trends. Positioning in gasoil and US diesel ticked slightly higher in the latest week. And commercial traders — those that work for the producers as well as other merchants of crude — aren’t so bearish, with some even reducing hedges against a potential price drop. </p><p>But the extreme extent of the financial traders’ bearishness raises the risk of volatility if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decide to cut production further. That scenario may set off a rush to exit the bets that sends oil prices surging and worsens inflation. </p><p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projects any large gains in oil prices could unleash as much as $40 billion worth of buying in US crude and Brent alone from trend-following commodity trading advisers, according to a note to clients seen by Bloomberg. By contrast, any big declines in prices aren’t likely to budge positioning much further, the bank forecasts.</p><p>The oil traders aren’t exactly going out on a limb with their recession bets, though. Of the 27 forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg in early May, 22 expected the US economy to slip into a contraction over the next year. However, the starting point for the downturn keeps getting pushed back as the robust labor market keeps wages growing and savings accumulated during the pandemic boost Americans’ spending power. </p><p>More broadly, the sentiment among global fund managers deteriorated to the most bearish this year, with 65% of survey participants now expecting a weaker economy, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey. </p><p>Meanwhile, underlying physical markets aren’t reflecting the dire state that traders are preparing for. Refineries are processing the most crude for this time of year since the pandemic began. Air travel is rising just about everywhere, and gasoline demand in the US is now at the highest level since December 2021. At the same time, fuel inventories are below seasonal norms for gasoline and diesel in the US, and OPEC+ cuts and Canadian wildfires have limited crude supply.</p><p>Those trends have oil producers and other industry players pulling back on hedges against a drop. Positions among swap dealers — who are typically net short because they execute hedges for oil producers — are growing less bearish as some drillers buy back their protection against a sudden price decline, market participants said.  </p><p>The International Energy Agency recently hiked its expectations for global oil demand growth this year on China’s post-pandemic rebound, which, despite a strong gain in consumer usage, has failed to live up to optimistic forecasts. That’s because industrial demand has been the central focus for traders, and weakness in manufacturing and trucking has kept them from going long on diesel. </p><p>“Traders are focused on China recovery, specifically if the increase in consumer-led consumption can meaningfully outstrip weakness in industrial demand,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. </p><p>Speculative traders also are hesitant to unwind bearish positions because of the ongoing stalemate in the US debt-ceiling talks. The uncertainty is negative for risk-sensitive assets, including oil, said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at StoneX Group. </p><p>While a reversal of the bearish sentiment doesn’t appear imminent, a continued decline in inventories may help oil beat other asset classes. </p><p>“If you do genuinely believe that we’re in a capital-disciplined and under-investing environment, then when the economy does stabilize, commodities, and oil within that, are likely to outperform over an extended period of time,” Pimco’s Sharenow said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hedge Funds’ Ultra-Bearish Oil Bets Signal US Recession Angst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHedge Funds’ Ultra-Bearish Oil Bets Signal US Recession Angst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-21 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-20/hedge-funds-ultra-bearish-oil-bets-signal-us-recession-angst?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Non-commercial positions are near most bearish since 2011Aggressive positioning risks over-correction and volatilityMoney managers that trade derivatives linked to oil and fuel prices are about as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-20/hedge-funds-ultra-bearish-oil-bets-signal-us-recession-angst?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-20/hedge-funds-ultra-bearish-oil-bets-signal-us-recession-angst?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155020969","content_text":"Non-commercial positions are near most bearish since 2011Aggressive positioning risks over-correction and volatilityMoney managers that trade derivatives linked to oil and fuel prices are about as bearish as they’ve been in more than a decade, suggesting they’re braced for a recession that could cause contracts from crude to jet fuel to take another tumble.The trading positions of non-commercial players such as hedge funds are near the most bearish levels since at least 2011 across a combination of all major oil contracts. And in bets that are perhaps most indicative of recession expectations, speculators’ combined views on diesel and gasoil — fuels that power the economy — are near the most bearish levels since early in the Covid-19 pandemic. The gloom over the oil market this year has come from multiple directions, including expectations that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes will provoke a contraction and China’s less-than-booming rebound from its Covid-19 restrictions. Add in the threat of a US default if politicians fail to raise the debt ceiling and the possibility that OPEC+ may not deliver all the output cuts they’ve pledged, and traders have no shortage of bear scenarios to choose from. “It’s pretty remarkable to see this type of positioning,” Greg Sharenow, who manages a portfolio focused on energy and commodities at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in an interview.  To be sure, the investors that make up the non-commercial cohort are a diverse group with a variety of approaches, ranging from hedge funds betting on macro strategies to algorithm-driven traders focused on price momentum and trends. Positioning in gasoil and US diesel ticked slightly higher in the latest week. And commercial traders — those that work for the producers as well as other merchants of crude — aren’t so bearish, with some even reducing hedges against a potential price drop. But the extreme extent of the financial traders’ bearishness raises the risk of volatility if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decide to cut production further. That scenario may set off a rush to exit the bets that sends oil prices surging and worsens inflation. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projects any large gains in oil prices could unleash as much as $40 billion worth of buying in US crude and Brent alone from trend-following commodity trading advisers, according to a note to clients seen by Bloomberg. By contrast, any big declines in prices aren’t likely to budge positioning much further, the bank forecasts.The oil traders aren’t exactly going out on a limb with their recession bets, though. Of the 27 forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg in early May, 22 expected the US economy to slip into a contraction over the next year. However, the starting point for the downturn keeps getting pushed back as the robust labor market keeps wages growing and savings accumulated during the pandemic boost Americans’ spending power. More broadly, the sentiment among global fund managers deteriorated to the most bearish this year, with 65% of survey participants now expecting a weaker economy, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey. Meanwhile, underlying physical markets aren’t reflecting the dire state that traders are preparing for. Refineries are processing the most crude for this time of year since the pandemic began. Air travel is rising just about everywhere, and gasoline demand in the US is now at the highest level since December 2021. At the same time, fuel inventories are below seasonal norms for gasoline and diesel in the US, and OPEC+ cuts and Canadian wildfires have limited crude supply.Those trends have oil producers and other industry players pulling back on hedges against a drop. Positions among swap dealers — who are typically net short because they execute hedges for oil producers — are growing less bearish as some drillers buy back their protection against a sudden price decline, market participants said.  The International Energy Agency recently hiked its expectations for global oil demand growth this year on China’s post-pandemic rebound, which, despite a strong gain in consumer usage, has failed to live up to optimistic forecasts. That’s because industrial demand has been the central focus for traders, and weakness in manufacturing and trucking has kept them from going long on diesel. “Traders are focused on China recovery, specifically if the increase in consumer-led consumption can meaningfully outstrip weakness in industrial demand,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. Speculative traders also are hesitant to unwind bearish positions because of the ongoing stalemate in the US debt-ceiling talks. The uncertainty is negative for risk-sensitive assets, including oil, said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at StoneX Group. While a reversal of the bearish sentiment doesn’t appear imminent, a continued decline in inventories may help oil beat other asset classes. “If you do genuinely believe that we’re in a capital-disciplined and under-investing environment, then when the economy does stabilize, commodities, and oil within that, are likely to outperform over an extended period of time,” Pimco’s Sharenow said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941340740,"gmtCreate":1680003626880,"gmtModify":1680003629920,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>splitting might be good for Alibaba itself but it is not good for stock holders. Will they get money from their own pocket to IPO each of the individual 6 groups or sell shares to fund for IPO. U tell me....","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>splitting might be good for Alibaba itself but it is not good for stock holders. Will they get money from their own pocket to IPO each of the individual 6 groups or sell shares to fund for IPO. U tell me....","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ splitting might be good for Alibaba itself but it is not good for stock holders. Will they get money from their own pocket to IPO each of the individual 6 groups or sell shares to fund for IPO. U tell me....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941340740","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981424158,"gmtCreate":1666583741874,"gmtModify":1676537772242,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>sell ah! Don't sell later $60 also don't have.&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>sell ah! Don't sell later $60 also don't have.&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$sell ah! Don't sell later $60 also don't have. [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981424158","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917970060,"gmtCreate":1665426495050,"gmtModify":1676537603671,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"DCA after earnings or after last interest rate hike. The facts of possibility that are driving market down more are there. Nothing to do with timing the market. Just don't fight the fed&nbsp;[Smug]&nbsp;","listText":"DCA after earnings or after last interest rate hike. The facts of possibility that are driving market down more are there. Nothing to do with timing the market. Just don't fight the fed&nbsp;[Smug]&nbsp;","text":"DCA after earnings or after last interest rate hike. The facts of possibility that are driving market down more are there. Nothing to do with timing the market. Just don't fight the fed [Smug]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917970060","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912612079,"gmtCreate":1664818364691,"gmtModify":1676537512970,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>bullish indeed.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>bullish indeed.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$bullish indeed.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6212a82f3113749afbc12d384ed7bc1e","width":"840","height":"587"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912612079","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905086833,"gmtCreate":1659769788324,"gmtModify":1703766445322,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good bye baba. You won't be missed","listText":"Good bye baba. You won't be missed","text":"Good bye baba. You won't be missed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905086833","repostId":"1136904781","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136904781","pubTimestamp":1659757961,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136904781?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:52","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136904781","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-exp","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>BABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.</li><li>Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.</li><li>However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock&#39;s selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.</li><li>Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.</li></ul><p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba&#39;s history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.</p><p>Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market&#39;s cautions about the Alibaba stock.</p><p>While Alibaba&#39;s valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba&#39;s rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to &#34;outweigh any favorable valuation.&#34;</p><p>Considering Alibaba&#39;s long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.</p><p><b>The Risks Are Still There</b></p><p>Alibaba stock&#39;s downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a &#34;valuation reset&#34; in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba&#39;s fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.</p><p><b>1. Regulatory Crackdowns</b></p><p>Recent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.</p><p>Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors&#39; confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.</p><p>And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors&#39; confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country&#39;s largest data breaches in history.</p><p>In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba&#39;s business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company&#39;s cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit&#39;s market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei&#39;s cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba&#39;s consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba&#39;s highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment&#39;s revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.</p><p>The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers&#39; pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba&#39;s comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba&#39;s deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.</p><p>Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba&#39;s growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.</p><p><b>2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (&#34;HFCAA&#34;)</b></p><p>Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.</p><p>Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors&#39; fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.</p><p>In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (&#34;CSRC&#34;) is &#34;considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,&#34; but the agency would still like the ability to &#34;withhold sensitive data from inspection&#34; where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess &#34;unredacted&#34; audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries &#34;have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.&#34;</p><p>As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given &#34;increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia&#39;s largest economy.&#34; Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while &#34;Florida&#39;s pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.&#34; Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.</p><p>While Alibaba&#39;s recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was &#34;about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.&#34; Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock&#39;s future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company&#39;s addition to the SEC&#39;s HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.</p><p><b>3. Global Economic Uncertainties</b></p><p>Even internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the &#34;618&#34; bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.</p><p>This has added pressure to Alibaba&#39;s recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba&#39;s core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment &#34;declined mid-single-digit y/y&#34; during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba&#39;s &#34;88VIP&#34; members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period&#39;s GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.</p><p>The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba&#39;s recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba&#39;s international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba&#39;s major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba&#39;s plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU&#39;s removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba&#39;s ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.</p><p><b>Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation Update</b></p><p>Adjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba&#39;s actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba&#39;s growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.</p><p>And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba&#39;s business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b23ccb7b6e755cf0baabe2ebb626b35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49f4dec53abacb221e7b157ebc0da0ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)</p><p>On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China&#39;s long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba&#39;s growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector&#39;s risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d51c258a7e0988da0491680f467d4a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)</p><p>However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China&#39;s long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/478fbc394cf5dd111f0a9104aebcd4b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)</p><p>Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors&#39; confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>In the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.</p><p>For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba&#39;s fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.</p><p>Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136904781","content_text":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock's selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba's history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market's cautions about the Alibaba stock.While Alibaba's valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba's rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to \"outweigh any favorable valuation.\"Considering Alibaba's long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.The Risks Are Still ThereAlibaba stock's downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a \"valuation reset\" in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba's fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.1. Regulatory CrackdownsRecent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors' confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors' confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country's largest data breaches in history.In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba's business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company's cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit's market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei's cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba's consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba's highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment's revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers' pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba's comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba's deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba's growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (\"HFCAA\")Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors' fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (\"CSRC\") is \"considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,\" but the agency would still like the ability to \"withhold sensitive data from inspection\" where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess \"unredacted\" audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries \"have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.\"As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given \"increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia's largest economy.\" Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while \"Florida's pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.\" Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.While Alibaba's recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was \"about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.\" Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock's future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company's addition to the SEC's HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.3. Global Economic UncertaintiesEven internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the \"618\" bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.This has added pressure to Alibaba's recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba's core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment \"declined mid-single-digit y/y\" during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba's \"88VIP\" members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period's GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba's recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba's international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba's major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba's plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU's removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba's ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation UpdateAdjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba's actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba's growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba's business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba's growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector's risks.Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors' confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.Final ThoughtsIn the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba's fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024401497,"gmtCreate":1653897204219,"gmtModify":1676535359592,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$[Miser]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14dd3745a54f92a3459f03e0c94fe5be","width":"840","height":"1859"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024401497","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024401649,"gmtCreate":1653897149381,"gmtModify":1676535359583,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nothing much will change within 1 to 2 years","listText":"Nothing much will change within 1 to 2 years","text":"Nothing much will change within 1 to 2 years","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024401649","repostId":"2239294524","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069924298,"gmtCreate":1651222028545,"gmtModify":1676534873485,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>‌Next short term thing to worry is the upcoming earnings...","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>‌Next short term thing to worry is the upcoming earnings...","text":"‌$Alibaba(BABA)$‌Next short term thing to worry is the upcoming earnings...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069924298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060087083,"gmtCreate":1651070827883,"gmtModify":1676534844419,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a>no!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a>no!","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$no!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060087083","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060084629,"gmtCreate":1651070794512,"gmtModify":1676534844419,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a>no!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a>no!","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$no!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060084629","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9970580200,"gmtCreate":1684703506500,"gmtModify":1684703510786,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It says recession is here","listText":"It says recession is here","text":"It says recession is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970580200","repostId":"1155020969","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9012250527,"gmtCreate":1649342452617,"gmtModify":1676534494921,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>If this week cannot close above $110. You guys invested in alibaba will be welcome by weekly hidden bearish divergence. Good luck. See u guys at double digit alibaba :)","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>If this week cannot close above $110. You guys invested in alibaba will be welcome by weekly hidden bearish divergence. Good luck. See u guys at double digit alibaba :)","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$If this week cannot close above $110. You guys invested in alibaba will be welcome by weekly hidden bearish divergence. Good luck. See u guys at double digit alibaba :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9012250527","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568289699694682","authorId":"3568289699694682","name":"CY09","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/255620aa2e5fd3021c4bb2119b0e1625","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Technical Indicators is not useful for China ADRs. The China govt is the indicator. As of now, it seems they are lying to the US government on what they promised, hence why all of China is so red","text":"Technical Indicators is not useful for China ADRs. The China govt is the indicator. As of now, it seems they are lying to the US government on what they promised, hence why all of China is so red","html":"Technical Indicators is not useful for China ADRs. The China govt is the indicator. As of now, it seems they are lying to the US government on what they promised, hence why all of China is so red"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":266508514570352,"gmtCreate":1706101307673,"gmtModify":1706101311730,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is a good time to buy due to valuations and not because who bought. The people u mentioned have plenty of money. If Spending $200M can prob up the stock by making retailer investors fomo it's a small price to pay but I don't think that is the reason they bought it. As for china stimulus... its peanut. USD$200B can't do anything to the market.","listText":"Is a good time to buy due to valuations and not because who bought. The people u mentioned have plenty of money. If Spending $200M can prob up the stock by making retailer investors fomo it's a small price to pay but I don't think that is the reason they bought it. As for china stimulus... its peanut. USD$200B can't do anything to the market.","text":"Is a good time to buy due to valuations and not because who bought. The people u mentioned have plenty of money. If Spending $200M can prob up the stock by making retailer investors fomo it's a small price to pay but I don't think that is the reason they bought it. As for china stimulus... its peanut. USD$200B can't do anything to the market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/266508514570352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024401649,"gmtCreate":1653897149381,"gmtModify":1676535359583,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nothing much will change within 1 to 2 years","listText":"Nothing much will change within 1 to 2 years","text":"Nothing much will change within 1 to 2 years","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024401649","repostId":"2239294524","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2239294524","pubTimestamp":1653892077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2239294524?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-30 14:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Valuation Is Just Wrong","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2239294524","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) shares rallied 15% after the Chinese e-Commerce company submitted earnings res","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) shares rallied 15% after the Chinese e-Commerce company submitted earnings results for the last quarter of FY 2022 on Thursday. Alibaba easily sailed past revenue and earnings predictions and I believe sentiment regarding Chinese companies has deteriorated too much at this point. Although Alibaba skipped its guidance for FY 2023, the firm&#39;s valuation still makes very little sense. Investors are underpricing Alibaba’s earnings potential!</p><h2><b>Previous expectations</b></h2><p>In my previous work on Alibaba, I mentioned the very real possibility of Alibaba outperforming EPS predictions on Thursday which have gone through a significant downward revision cycle over the last year. Low expectations were the main reason why I thought Alibaba could outperform low consensus EPS predictions. And this is what Alibaba did: The company reported Q4’22 adjusted EPS of $1.18 which beat predictions by $0.10. Additionally, Alibaba beat on revenues as well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc75385b593d4759781f8c643f10da5b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><h2><b>Alibaba’s e-Commerce growth</b></h2><p>Overall, Alibaba’s revenues increased 9% in the last quarter to 204.1B Chinese Yuan which calculates to $32.2B. Alibaba’s core China e-Commerce revenues increased 8% year over year to 140.3B Chinese Yuan ($22.1B), which was an improvement over the previous quarter which saw 7% top line growth. So, Alibaba slightly improved its performance in its most important business quarter over quarter. Alibaba also saw continual strength in Local Consumer Services where revenues surged 29% year over year to $10.4B Chinese Yuan ($1.6B) and the Cloud segment which saw its revenues increase by 12% year over year to 19.0B Chinese Yuan ($3.0B).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7367ad9ca7d57fdc29a04bfe53983b08\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba</p><p>What stood out positively from Alibaba’s earnings sheet was that the company continued to make progress expanding its e-Commerce platform despite a challenged macro environment. Alibaba added 28M new accounts to its ecosystem in the last quarter, the majority of which (25M) were added in China. Alibaba’s domestic e-Commerce business is still the firm’s largest revenue source, contributing 69% of total revenues. However, Alibaba has a huge opportunity to grow its other businesses as well, especially its logistics operations which are vertically integrated into Alibaba’s e-Commerce operations, and its Cloud segment. I recently described the progress Alibaba is making in the Cloud business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cde9895f0dc3182788f90281d1915d9\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba</p><p>Alibaba ended the quarter with 1.3B active customer accounts in its enterprise. Over the last year, Alibaba added a massive 177M new customers to its platform which creates a base for long term earnings and free cash flow growth.</p><h2><b>Alibaba’s share buybacks</b></h2><p>Before Alibaba released earnings, I mentioned that the company likely used its free cash flow in the last quarter to repurchase a ton of shares. It was obvious to me that the e-Commerce company would repurchase a lot of shares considering that Alibaba just up-sized its stock buyback from $15B to $25B at the time and that the stock traded at unreasonably low prices in March.</p><p>I like it when companies increase their buybacks when stock valuations are depressed and Alibaba did in fact repurchase a significant amount of shares in the last quarter. In Q4’22, Alibaba repurchased approximately 17.8M American Depositary Shares for about $2.0B. I expected a minimum share repurchase of $2.0B. In the last twelve months, Alibaba repurchased 60M American Depositary Shares for a total consideration of $9.6B.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f53c2e10f93e04902c9658236d0ddb\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba</p><h2><b>Skipped earnings guidance</b></h2><p>Alibaba did not provide earnings guidance which it normally does at the beginning of the fiscal year. The e-Commerce firm cited uncertainties related to COVID-19 as a reason not to provide guidance. Normally, a lack of guidance is not well received and stocks of companies that don’t guide are punished by the market. In this case, however, things are different. Alibaba’s shares have been so battered so much since the fourth-quarter of 2020 that investors cheer results even if they are more mediocre.</p><h2><b>Alibaba’s valuation is wrong: Undervalued e-Commerce prospects</b></h2><p>Alibaba’s stock market valuation makes very little sense to me. This is because, for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, Alibaba is very profitable. Alibaba generated net income of 47.1B Chinese Yuan ($7.4B) in FY 2022 while adjusted net income was 136.4B or $21.5B. There is some serious profitability in Alibaba’s business and investors don’t seem to appreciate this right now. Additionally, we are dealing with one of the largest e-Commerce empires in the world regarding account size and reach, but Alibaba&#39;s valuation still does not reflect those factors. Shares of Alibaba trade at a P-E ratio of 10 X. JD.com (JD), for example, has a P-E ratio nearly twice as high as Alibaba&#39;s. Alibaba&#39;s historical valuation shows a P-E ratio as high as 30 X. As wrong as Alibaba&#39;s valuation is, it represents deep value and low risk.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275fc298915f2035a8e72d39e92a8626\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h2><b>Risks with Alibaba</b></h2><p>Alibaba faces continual top line risks related to a slowdown in the Chinese e-Commerce market. While Alibaba is investing in other businesses to diversify its revenue mix, a continual moderation in top line growth poses a risk for Alibaba and the stock. What would change my mind about Alibaba is if earnings and free cash flow prospects in the e-Commerce business seriously deteriorated or Beijing announced new crackdowns on the company.</p><h2><b>Final thoughts</b></h2><p>I expected Alibaba to do better than estimates in Q4’22, in large part because investor expectations have been driven too low. Given the circumstances with COVID-19 lockdowns and a regulatory onslaught in the last year, Alibaba did a good job in squeezing out 9% revenue growth.</p><p>Alibaba does have some problems, like slowing top line growth and reliance on domestic e-Commerce transactions, but the firm’s irrationally low valuation is not of them. Alibaba added a significant number (177M) of new accounts in the last twelve months which speaks to the strength and the appeal of Alibaba’s various e-Commerce platforms. Alibaba’s growth is still widely undervalued and I believe the valuation is just plain wrong!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Valuation Is Just Wrong</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Valuation Is Just Wrong\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-30 14:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515178-alibaba-q4-earnings-undervaluation-stock><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) shares rallied 15% after the Chinese e-Commerce company submitted earnings results for the last quarter of FY 2022 on Thursday. Alibaba easily sailed past revenue and earnings ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515178-alibaba-q4-earnings-undervaluation-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515178-alibaba-q4-earnings-undervaluation-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2239294524","content_text":"Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) shares rallied 15% after the Chinese e-Commerce company submitted earnings results for the last quarter of FY 2022 on Thursday. Alibaba easily sailed past revenue and earnings predictions and I believe sentiment regarding Chinese companies has deteriorated too much at this point. Although Alibaba skipped its guidance for FY 2023, the firm's valuation still makes very little sense. Investors are underpricing Alibaba’s earnings potential!Previous expectationsIn my previous work on Alibaba, I mentioned the very real possibility of Alibaba outperforming EPS predictions on Thursday which have gone through a significant downward revision cycle over the last year. Low expectations were the main reason why I thought Alibaba could outperform low consensus EPS predictions. And this is what Alibaba did: The company reported Q4’22 adjusted EPS of $1.18 which beat predictions by $0.10. Additionally, Alibaba beat on revenues as well.Seeking AlphaAlibaba’s e-Commerce growthOverall, Alibaba’s revenues increased 9% in the last quarter to 204.1B Chinese Yuan which calculates to $32.2B. Alibaba’s core China e-Commerce revenues increased 8% year over year to 140.3B Chinese Yuan ($22.1B), which was an improvement over the previous quarter which saw 7% top line growth. So, Alibaba slightly improved its performance in its most important business quarter over quarter. Alibaba also saw continual strength in Local Consumer Services where revenues surged 29% year over year to $10.4B Chinese Yuan ($1.6B) and the Cloud segment which saw its revenues increase by 12% year over year to 19.0B Chinese Yuan ($3.0B).AlibabaWhat stood out positively from Alibaba’s earnings sheet was that the company continued to make progress expanding its e-Commerce platform despite a challenged macro environment. Alibaba added 28M new accounts to its ecosystem in the last quarter, the majority of which (25M) were added in China. Alibaba’s domestic e-Commerce business is still the firm’s largest revenue source, contributing 69% of total revenues. However, Alibaba has a huge opportunity to grow its other businesses as well, especially its logistics operations which are vertically integrated into Alibaba’s e-Commerce operations, and its Cloud segment. I recently described the progress Alibaba is making in the Cloud business.AlibabaAlibaba ended the quarter with 1.3B active customer accounts in its enterprise. Over the last year, Alibaba added a massive 177M new customers to its platform which creates a base for long term earnings and free cash flow growth.Alibaba’s share buybacksBefore Alibaba released earnings, I mentioned that the company likely used its free cash flow in the last quarter to repurchase a ton of shares. It was obvious to me that the e-Commerce company would repurchase a lot of shares considering that Alibaba just up-sized its stock buyback from $15B to $25B at the time and that the stock traded at unreasonably low prices in March.I like it when companies increase their buybacks when stock valuations are depressed and Alibaba did in fact repurchase a significant amount of shares in the last quarter. In Q4’22, Alibaba repurchased approximately 17.8M American Depositary Shares for about $2.0B. I expected a minimum share repurchase of $2.0B. In the last twelve months, Alibaba repurchased 60M American Depositary Shares for a total consideration of $9.6B.AlibabaSkipped earnings guidanceAlibaba did not provide earnings guidance which it normally does at the beginning of the fiscal year. The e-Commerce firm cited uncertainties related to COVID-19 as a reason not to provide guidance. Normally, a lack of guidance is not well received and stocks of companies that don’t guide are punished by the market. In this case, however, things are different. Alibaba’s shares have been so battered so much since the fourth-quarter of 2020 that investors cheer results even if they are more mediocre.Alibaba’s valuation is wrong: Undervalued e-Commerce prospectsAlibaba’s stock market valuation makes very little sense to me. This is because, for one, Alibaba is very profitable. Alibaba generated net income of 47.1B Chinese Yuan ($7.4B) in FY 2022 while adjusted net income was 136.4B or $21.5B. There is some serious profitability in Alibaba’s business and investors don’t seem to appreciate this right now. Additionally, we are dealing with one of the largest e-Commerce empires in the world regarding account size and reach, but Alibaba's valuation still does not reflect those factors. Shares of Alibaba trade at a P-E ratio of 10 X. JD.com (JD), for example, has a P-E ratio nearly twice as high as Alibaba's. Alibaba's historical valuation shows a P-E ratio as high as 30 X. As wrong as Alibaba's valuation is, it represents deep value and low risk.Data by YChartsRisks with AlibabaAlibaba faces continual top line risks related to a slowdown in the Chinese e-Commerce market. While Alibaba is investing in other businesses to diversify its revenue mix, a continual moderation in top line growth poses a risk for Alibaba and the stock. What would change my mind about Alibaba is if earnings and free cash flow prospects in the e-Commerce business seriously deteriorated or Beijing announced new crackdowns on the company.Final thoughtsI expected Alibaba to do better than estimates in Q4’22, in large part because investor expectations have been driven too low. Given the circumstances with COVID-19 lockdowns and a regulatory onslaught in the last year, Alibaba did a good job in squeezing out 9% revenue growth.Alibaba does have some problems, like slowing top line growth and reliance on domestic e-Commerce transactions, but the firm’s irrationally low valuation is not of them. Alibaba added a significant number (177M) of new accounts in the last twelve months which speaks to the strength and the appeal of Alibaba’s various e-Commerce platforms. Alibaba’s growth is still widely undervalued and I believe the valuation is just plain wrong!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912612079,"gmtCreate":1664818364691,"gmtModify":1676537512970,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>bullish indeed.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>bullish indeed.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$bullish indeed.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6212a82f3113749afbc12d384ed7bc1e","width":"840","height":"587"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912612079","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905086833,"gmtCreate":1659769788324,"gmtModify":1703766445322,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good bye baba. You won't be missed","listText":"Good bye baba. You won't be missed","text":"Good bye baba. You won't be missed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905086833","repostId":"1136904781","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136904781","pubTimestamp":1659757961,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136904781?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:52","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136904781","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-exp","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>BABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.</li><li>Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.</li><li>However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock&#39;s selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.</li><li>Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.</li></ul><p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba&#39;s history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.</p><p>Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market&#39;s cautions about the Alibaba stock.</p><p>While Alibaba&#39;s valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba&#39;s rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to &#34;outweigh any favorable valuation.&#34;</p><p>Considering Alibaba&#39;s long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.</p><p><b>The Risks Are Still There</b></p><p>Alibaba stock&#39;s downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a &#34;valuation reset&#34; in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba&#39;s fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.</p><p><b>1. Regulatory Crackdowns</b></p><p>Recent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.</p><p>Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors&#39; confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.</p><p>And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors&#39; confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country&#39;s largest data breaches in history.</p><p>In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba&#39;s business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company&#39;s cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit&#39;s market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei&#39;s cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba&#39;s consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba&#39;s highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment&#39;s revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.</p><p>The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers&#39; pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba&#39;s comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba&#39;s deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.</p><p>Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba&#39;s growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.</p><p><b>2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (&#34;HFCAA&#34;)</b></p><p>Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.</p><p>Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors&#39; fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.</p><p>In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (&#34;CSRC&#34;) is &#34;considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,&#34; but the agency would still like the ability to &#34;withhold sensitive data from inspection&#34; where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess &#34;unredacted&#34; audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries &#34;have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.&#34;</p><p>As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given &#34;increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia&#39;s largest economy.&#34; Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while &#34;Florida&#39;s pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.&#34; Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.</p><p>While Alibaba&#39;s recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was &#34;about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.&#34; Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock&#39;s future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company&#39;s addition to the SEC&#39;s HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.</p><p><b>3. Global Economic Uncertainties</b></p><p>Even internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the &#34;618&#34; bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.</p><p>This has added pressure to Alibaba&#39;s recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba&#39;s core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment &#34;declined mid-single-digit y/y&#34; during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba&#39;s &#34;88VIP&#34; members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period&#39;s GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.</p><p>The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba&#39;s recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba&#39;s international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba&#39;s major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba&#39;s plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU&#39;s removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba&#39;s ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.</p><p><b>Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation Update</b></p><p>Adjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba&#39;s actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba&#39;s growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.</p><p>And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba&#39;s business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b23ccb7b6e755cf0baabe2ebb626b35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49f4dec53abacb221e7b157ebc0da0ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)</p><p>On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China&#39;s long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba&#39;s growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector&#39;s risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d51c258a7e0988da0491680f467d4a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)</p><p>However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China&#39;s long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/478fbc394cf5dd111f0a9104aebcd4b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)</p><p>Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors&#39; confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>In the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.</p><p>For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba&#39;s fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.</p><p>Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136904781","content_text":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock's selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba's history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market's cautions about the Alibaba stock.While Alibaba's valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba's rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to \"outweigh any favorable valuation.\"Considering Alibaba's long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.The Risks Are Still ThereAlibaba stock's downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a \"valuation reset\" in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba's fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.1. Regulatory CrackdownsRecent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors' confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors' confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country's largest data breaches in history.In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba's business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company's cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit's market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei's cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba's consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba's highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment's revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers' pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba's comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba's deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba's growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (\"HFCAA\")Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors' fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (\"CSRC\") is \"considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,\" but the agency would still like the ability to \"withhold sensitive data from inspection\" where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess \"unredacted\" audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries \"have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.\"As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given \"increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia's largest economy.\" Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while \"Florida's pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.\" Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.While Alibaba's recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was \"about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.\" Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock's future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company's addition to the SEC's HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.3. Global Economic UncertaintiesEven internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the \"618\" bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.This has added pressure to Alibaba's recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba's core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment \"declined mid-single-digit y/y\" during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba's \"88VIP\" members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period's GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba's recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba's international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba's major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba's plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU's removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba's ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation UpdateAdjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba's actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba's growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba's business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba's growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector's risks.Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors' confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.Final ThoughtsIn the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba's fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014324855,"gmtCreate":1649612749543,"gmtModify":1676534537462,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>does this also subject to 30% capital gain tax from USA when they payout the dividend?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VOO\">$Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF(VOO)$</a>does this also subject to 30% capital gain tax from USA when they payout the dividend?","text":"$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$does this also subject to 30% capital gain tax from USA when they payout the dividend?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014324855","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9012294245,"gmtCreate":1649337324100,"gmtModify":1676534493555,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>‌Good Night Alibaba. See you at a lower price.","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>‌Good Night Alibaba. See you at a lower price.","text":"‌$Alibaba(BABA)$‌Good Night Alibaba. See you at a lower price.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9012294245","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011944710,"gmtCreate":1648810486887,"gmtModify":1676534402414,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha I see alot will DCA into tencent or baba or other China stocks till they get delisted due to information is considered state sensitive.","listText":"Haha I see alot will DCA into tencent or baba or other China stocks till they get delisted due to information is considered state sensitive.","text":"Haha I see alot will DCA into tencent or baba or other China stocks till they get delisted due to information is considered state sensitive.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011944710","repostId":"1148563015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148563015","pubTimestamp":1648808263,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148563015?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-01 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China Weighs Giving U.S. Full Access to Audits of Most Firms","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148563015","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) --Chinese authorities are preparing to give U.S. regulators full access to auditing repo","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Bloomberg) --Chinese authorities are preparing to give U.S. regulators full access to auditing reports of the majority of the 200-plus companies listed in New York as soon as mid-this year, making a rare concession to prevent a further decoupling between the world’s two largest economies.</p><p>The China Securities Regulatory Commission and other national regulators are in the process of drafting a framework that will allow most Chinese firms to keep their listings, people familiar with the process said, asking not to be named discussing a private matter. However, the government is prepared to accept that some state-owned enterprises and private companies that hold sensitive data will be delisted, they said.</p><p>The framework is expected to provide clarity on what data may trigger national security concerns, said the people. Regulators are debating whether companies that deal with consumer information, such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, would automatically fall into that category, one of the people said, adding that processing large volumes of such information wouldn’t necessarily make a firm a security concern.</p><p>If the plan proceeds, it would mark an unusual reversal by Beijing, potentially ending a decades-long dispute that escalated when the U.S. mandated a 2024 deadline for kicking non-compliant businesses off the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. The compromise would also show China’s willingness to balance national security concerns with the needs of investors and businesses at a time when its economy faces numerous challenges.</p><p>Details are still under discussion and may change, said the people, adding that it also needs sign-off from the top leadership. Chinese regulators hope to reach an agreement with the U.S. around summer, one of the people said.</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Weighs Giving U.S. Full Access to Audits of Most Firms</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Weighs Giving U.S. Full Access to Audits of Most Firms\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-01 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.bloombergtax.com/financial-accounting/china-weighs-giving-u-s-full-access-to-audits-of-most-firms><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) --Chinese authorities are preparing to give U.S. regulators full access to auditing reports of the majority of the 200-plus companies listed in New York as soon as mid-this year, making a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.bloombergtax.com/financial-accounting/china-weighs-giving-u-s-full-access-to-audits-of-most-firms\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://news.bloombergtax.com/financial-accounting/china-weighs-giving-u-s-full-access-to-audits-of-most-firms","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148563015","content_text":"(Bloomberg) --Chinese authorities are preparing to give U.S. regulators full access to auditing reports of the majority of the 200-plus companies listed in New York as soon as mid-this year, making a rare concession to prevent a further decoupling between the world’s two largest economies.The China Securities Regulatory Commission and other national regulators are in the process of drafting a framework that will allow most Chinese firms to keep their listings, people familiar with the process said, asking not to be named discussing a private matter. However, the government is prepared to accept that some state-owned enterprises and private companies that hold sensitive data will be delisted, they said.The framework is expected to provide clarity on what data may trigger national security concerns, said the people. Regulators are debating whether companies that deal with consumer information, such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, would automatically fall into that category, one of the people said, adding that processing large volumes of such information wouldn’t necessarily make a firm a security concern.If the plan proceeds, it would mark an unusual reversal by Beijing, potentially ending a decades-long dispute that escalated when the U.S. mandated a 2024 deadline for kicking non-compliant businesses off the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. The compromise would also show China’s willingness to balance national security concerns with the needs of investors and businesses at a time when its economy faces numerous challenges.Details are still under discussion and may change, said the people, adding that it also needs sign-off from the top leadership. Chinese regulators hope to reach an agreement with the U.S. around summer, one of the people said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941340740,"gmtCreate":1680003626880,"gmtModify":1680003629920,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>splitting might be good for Alibaba itself but it is not good for stock holders. Will they get money from their own pocket to IPO each of the individual 6 groups or sell shares to fund for IPO. U tell me....","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>splitting might be good for Alibaba itself but it is not good for stock holders. Will they get money from their own pocket to IPO each of the individual 6 groups or sell shares to fund for IPO. U tell me....","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ splitting might be good for Alibaba itself but it is not good for stock holders. Will they get money from their own pocket to IPO each of the individual 6 groups or sell shares to fund for IPO. U tell me....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941340740","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981424158,"gmtCreate":1666583741874,"gmtModify":1676537772242,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>sell ah! Don't sell later $60 also don't have.&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>sell ah! Don't sell later $60 also don't have.&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$sell ah! Don't sell later $60 also don't have. [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981424158","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017592721,"gmtCreate":1649786814656,"gmtModify":1676534575326,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$</a>‌Gogogo! Go fill $27 gap!","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$</a>‌Gogogo! Go fill $27 gap!","text":"‌$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$‌Gogogo! Go fill $27 gap!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017592721","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323561594736688,"gmtCreate":1720019870106,"gmtModify":1720019873637,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm close to 2 years with tiger. I'm still a cub","listText":"I'm close to 2 years with tiger. I'm still a cub","text":"I'm close to 2 years with tiger. I'm still a cub","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323561594736688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":271323072524584,"gmtCreate":1707278935940,"gmtModify":1707278940444,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Alibaba(09988)$ already had an run up before earnings due to government intervention. if it doesn't perform well more people will decide to cut loses or those that bought it will try break even while waiting for lower lows. due to China economy, more people are spending less while saving more and since there's major slow down in the economy cloud might possibly see no growth thus adding the possibility of baba not doing well in this earning. Other sectors that baba is in might need to pick up the slack which I think those sectors are struggling too. thus to me, high chances that baba share price will dip after reporting so-so or bad numbers. I might be wrong but I don't think my analysis is on the delusional end that baba will go $250 EOY prediction for no good reasons only just because i","listText":"$Alibaba(09988)$ already had an run up before earnings due to government intervention. if it doesn't perform well more people will decide to cut loses or those that bought it will try break even while waiting for lower lows. due to China economy, more people are spending less while saving more and since there's major slow down in the economy cloud might possibly see no growth thus adding the possibility of baba not doing well in this earning. Other sectors that baba is in might need to pick up the slack which I think those sectors are struggling too. thus to me, high chances that baba share price will dip after reporting so-so or bad numbers. I might be wrong but I don't think my analysis is on the delusional end that baba will go $250 EOY prediction for no good reasons only just because i","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$ already had an run up before earnings due to government intervention. if it doesn't perform well more people will decide to cut loses or those that bought it will try break even while waiting for lower lows. due to China economy, more people are spending less while saving more and since there's major slow down in the economy cloud might possibly see no growth thus adding the possibility of baba not doing well in this earning. Other sectors that baba is in might need to pick up the slack which I think those sectors are struggling too. thus to me, high chances that baba share price will dip after reporting so-so or bad numbers. I might be wrong but I don't think my analysis is on the delusional end that baba will go $250 EOY prediction for no good reasons only just because i","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271323072524584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":264010454294752,"gmtCreate":1705461537354,"gmtModify":1705461542306,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The GDP growth of 5.2% should helped but due to the issuing of ultra long term bonds. It basically means. Nope... economy in China not too good","listText":"The GDP growth of 5.2% should helped but due to the issuing of ultra long term bonds. It basically means. Nope... economy in China not too good","text":"The GDP growth of 5.2% should helped but due to the issuing of ultra long term bonds. It basically means. Nope... economy in China not too good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264010454294752","repostId":"2404897944","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257451395039424,"gmtCreate":1703888241548,"gmtModify":1703888246107,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woot","listText":"Woot","text":"Woot","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d2dbae523a1b97c87312d212eba435c8","width":"905","height":"2099"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257451395039424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257449846993160,"gmtCreate":1703887867853,"gmtModify":1703903166621,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Tiger Tycoon","htmlText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/5KiLYL\">Tiger Tycoon</a> Get ready to WIN up to $888!","listText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/5KiLYL\">Tiger Tycoon</a> Get ready to WIN up to $888!","text":"Find out more here:Tiger Tycoon Get ready to WIN up to $888!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257449846993160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257449867083776,"gmtCreate":1703887854270,"gmtModify":1703887858375,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257449867083776","repostId":"248312805347464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":248312805347464,"gmtCreate":1701660745864,"gmtModify":1703059991513,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅","htmlText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","listText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","text":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257449550160088,"gmtCreate":1703887791806,"gmtModify":1703887796350,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's go!!&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"Let's go!!&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"Let's go!! [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257449550160088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257448454733880,"gmtCreate":1703887660551,"gmtModify":1703903174906,"author":{"id":"4110787565741242","authorId":"4110787565741242","name":"Darkkon","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b2ccd1ab8fd2ba33f344c8207c75cdf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Tiger Tycoon","htmlText":"😄Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/5KpNKx\">Tiger Tycoon</a> Get ready to WIN up to $888!","listText":"😄Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/5KpNKx\">Tiger Tycoon</a> Get ready to WIN up to $888!","text":"😄Find out more here:Tiger Tycoon Get ready to WIN up to $888!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257448454733880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}