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2022-12-13

Really? Be more responsible when you are writing something, really hatethis kind of irresponsible joker that advise people to buy or sell, you never know what's their motive behind

7 EV Stocks to Sell Before They Dead End

11-15

Yup, shift to higher gear of falling. October delivery without the cheap version, NIO brand itself is just about 15k, anyway, the boss is a piece of shit, just spending money like his father money, without considering the company profitability

Is Nio About to Shift Into a Higher Gear?

09-14

I believe you have shorted a lot

NIO: The ONVO Gamble Could Worsen Liquidity Crunch

2023-02-24

It's just a dream

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-02-24

Always dream only

Hot Chinese ADRs Climbed in Premarket Trading

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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shift to higher gear of falling. October delivery without the cheap version, NIO brand itself is just about 15k, anyway, the boss is a piece of shit, just spending money like his father money, without considering the company profitability&nbsp;","listText":"Yup, shift to higher gear of falling. October delivery without the cheap version, NIO brand itself is just about 15k, anyway, the boss is a piece of shit, just spending money like his father money, without considering the company profitability&nbsp;","text":"Yup, shift to higher gear of falling. October delivery without the cheap version, NIO brand itself is just about 15k, anyway, the boss is a piece of shit, just spending money like his father money, without considering the company profitability","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371091400736984","repostId":"2482908630","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2482908630","pubTimestamp":1731481232,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2482908630?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-13 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Nio About to Shift Into a Higher Gear?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2482908630","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Nio has shed almost half its value in 2024, but it's gaining momentum to shift into a higher gear in 2025.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nio has recorded six straight months of 20,000-plus vehicle deliveries.</p></li><li><p>The Chinese EV maker is now officially delivering Onvo L60 vehicles.</p></li><li><p>Nio will launch another sub-brand later in 2024 -- a likely boost to sales.</p></li></ul><p>Investing in Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a> is an intriguing option. Heavy government subsidies have led to rapid advancement in battery technology and bringing down costs, which makes for an incredibly competitive EV market in China. In fact, China&#39;s market is so far ahead of the U.S. that over half its new vehicle sales were EVs in July.</p><p>The good news for Nio investors is that the company has momentum and could be about to shift into a higher gear. Let&#39;s see what&#39;s ahead.</p><h2 id=\"id_773572304\">Delivery momentum</h2><p>Nio has quietly put together a few months of strong delivery numbers. In fact, for six straight months, Nio has delivered over 20,000 vehicles. Nio delivered 20,976 vehicles in October, which was a 30.5% gain from the prior year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2aa7d8e419c8c15f516f3d42e79cc8cd\" alt=\"Data source: Nio production and delivery releases. Chart by author.\" title=\"Data source: Nio production and delivery releases. Chart by author.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"544\"/><span>Data source: Nio production and delivery releases. Chart by author.</span></p><p>But the biggest takeaway from the October results was early Onvo deliveries. The Nio brand sold 16,657 vehicles in October, while its &#34;family oriented smart vehicle brand,&#34; Onvo, delivered 4,319 in its first full month of sales. After launching the mid-size Onvo L60 in September, management noted that production and deliveries would steadily ramp up.</p><p>At the end of October, Nio had 166 Onvo centers and spaces across 60 cities with plans to expand its network to drive growth. Nio&#39;s Onvo L60 is a good bet for that growth and could shift the company into higher gear. The new electric SUV starts at roughly $21,200 and is aimed directly at competing with rival Tesla&#39;s Model Y.</p><h2 id=\"id_4088032995\">Next step</h2><p>Not only will the Onvo L60 help shift Nio&#39;s deliveries into higher gear, it&#39;s just a stepping stone to what could be an even bigger hit among consumers. Nio CEO William Li commented: &#34;If you think the L60 is good, then this new model is a much more competitive product.&#34; Currently, the plans are for Onvo to launch a new EV every year, with the new mid- to large-size electric SUV due next year.</p><p>Nio isn&#39;t stopping with Onvo. It has plans to launch another, more affordable, sub-brand named &#34;Firefly&#34; late in 2024. In a Chinese market where EVs represented over 50% of new vehicle sales in July -- and which is craving affordable EVs -- Nio&#39;s launch of Onvo and Firefly should really kick the company&#39;s deliveries into a higher gear. We&#39;re seeing evidence of that as recently as October production and delivery figures.</p><p>The good news is that Nio recently announced a cash injection from a group of investors putting up roughly $1.9 billion to help fund its expansion and growth. The collection of strategic investors will invest roughly $471 million in Nio China, while Nio the parent company has agreed to pour in roughly $1.43 billion in cash to subscribe to the newly issued Nio China shares.</p><p>While Nio has shed roughly 44% of its value in 2024 alone, the company is setting itself up for a much stronger 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Nio About to Shift Into a Higher Gear?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Nio About to Shift Into a Higher Gear?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-13 15:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/12/is-nio-about-to-shift-into-a-higher-gear/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio has recorded six straight months of 20,000-plus vehicle deliveries.The Chinese EV maker is now officially delivering Onvo L60 vehicles.Nio will launch another sub-brand later in 2024 -- a likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/12/is-nio-about-to-shift-into-a-higher-gear/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/12/is-nio-about-to-shift-into-a-higher-gear/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2482908630","content_text":"Nio has recorded six straight months of 20,000-plus vehicle deliveries.The Chinese EV maker is now officially delivering Onvo L60 vehicles.Nio will launch another sub-brand later in 2024 -- a likely boost to sales.Investing in Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers such as Nio is an intriguing option. Heavy government subsidies have led to rapid advancement in battery technology and bringing down costs, which makes for an incredibly competitive EV market in China. In fact, China's market is so far ahead of the U.S. that over half its new vehicle sales were EVs in July.The good news for Nio investors is that the company has momentum and could be about to shift into a higher gear. Let's see what's ahead.Delivery momentumNio has quietly put together a few months of strong delivery numbers. In fact, for six straight months, Nio has delivered over 20,000 vehicles. Nio delivered 20,976 vehicles in October, which was a 30.5% gain from the prior year.Data source: Nio production and delivery releases. Chart by author.But the biggest takeaway from the October results was early Onvo deliveries. The Nio brand sold 16,657 vehicles in October, while its \"family oriented smart vehicle brand,\" Onvo, delivered 4,319 in its first full month of sales. After launching the mid-size Onvo L60 in September, management noted that production and deliveries would steadily ramp up.At the end of October, Nio had 166 Onvo centers and spaces across 60 cities with plans to expand its network to drive growth. Nio's Onvo L60 is a good bet for that growth and could shift the company into higher gear. The new electric SUV starts at roughly $21,200 and is aimed directly at competing with rival Tesla's Model Y.Next stepNot only will the Onvo L60 help shift Nio's deliveries into higher gear, it's just a stepping stone to what could be an even bigger hit among consumers. Nio CEO William Li commented: \"If you think the L60 is good, then this new model is a much more competitive product.\" Currently, the plans are for Onvo to launch a new EV every year, with the new mid- to large-size electric SUV due next year.Nio isn't stopping with Onvo. It has plans to launch another, more affordable, sub-brand named \"Firefly\" late in 2024. In a Chinese market where EVs represented over 50% of new vehicle sales in July -- and which is craving affordable EVs -- Nio's launch of Onvo and Firefly should really kick the company's deliveries into a higher gear. We're seeing evidence of that as recently as October production and delivery figures.The good news is that Nio recently announced a cash injection from a group of investors putting up roughly $1.9 billion to help fund its expansion and growth. The collection of strategic investors will invest roughly $471 million in Nio China, while Nio the parent company has agreed to pour in roughly $1.43 billion in cash to subscribe to the newly issued Nio China shares.While Nio has shed roughly 44% of its value in 2024 alone, the company is setting itself up for a much stronger 2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349090287567000,"gmtCreate":1726257288865,"gmtModify":1726265720346,"author":{"id":"4110814681747552","authorId":"4110814681747552","name":"Yap68","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110814681747552","authorIdStr":"4110814681747552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I believe you have shorted a lot","listText":"I believe you have shorted a lot","text":"I believe you have shorted a lot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349090287567000","repostId":"2467770782","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2467770782","pubTimestamp":1726242986,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2467770782?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 23:56","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"NIO: The ONVO Gamble Could Worsen Liquidity Crunch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467770782","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is in a liquidity crunch with current liabilities higher than its cash balance, which could see it resort to a dilutive capital raise in the next 2 quarters.NIO’s 3-brand strategy could help boost","content":"<html><body><ul><li>NIO is in a liquidity crunch with current liabilities higher than its cash balance, which could see it resort to a dilutive capital raise in the next 2 quarters.</li><li>NIO’s 3-brand strategy could help boost delivery volumes, but could lead to margin contraction.</li><li>I expect NIO’s losses to increase as it increases its marketing spend to drive demand for the ONVO L60, set to launch on September 19.</li><li>The opening of a third factory in Q3 2025 could have a negative impact on vehicle margins and operating costs.</li><li>My price target for NIO is $2.93, representing 45% downside from its current valuation.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>tang90246</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Last February, I was bearish on NIO Inc. (<span>NYSE:NIO</span>) due to its market share loss in China, its main market, its investments in the loss making battery swapping business, and lackluster expansion in the European market. Following my coverage, NIO reached<span> a 52-week low of $3.61, before surging recently on the back of its </span>Q2 earnings<span> that were highlighted by improving margins and better cost management. Despite this, I expect the company’s losses to increase in the coming quarters due to the upcoming </span>launch<span> of the ONVO sub-brand’s L60 model, that targets China’s mass market, on September 19.</span></p> <p>While this endeavor could help boost delivery volumes, it would come at the expense of higher marketing costs, margin contraction, and possibly cannibalizing ES6 sales, NIO’s best selling model, in my opinion. Moreover, I expect NIO to raise capital in the near future to deal with its<span> current liabilities, which are significantly higher than its current cash balance. For these reasons, I’m reiterating my sell rating with a price target of $2.93 per share, implying 45% downside from current levels.</span></p> <h2>Q2 Overview</h2> <p>In Q2, NIO reported YoY revenue growth of 99% to $2.4 billion driven by an 118% increase in vehicle sales, and QoQ growth of 76%, also driven by an 87% increase in vehicle sales. During the quarter, NIO generated $2.2 billion from vehicle sales as it delivered a record 57,373 vehicles compared to 30,053 in Q1 2024 and 23,520 in Q2 2023.</p> <p>In terms of margins, NIO reported a vehicle margin of 12.2% in Q2 compared to 9.2% in Q1 and 6.2% a year ago, due to lower material costs and realizing the benefits of economies of scale during the quarter. As a result, total gross margin in Q2 was 9.7% compared to 4.9% and 1% in the prior quarter and year, respectively.</p> <p>Looking at NIO’s cost structure, R&amp;D costs declined 3.8% YoY to $442.9 million, however, that represented an 11.6% QoQ increase from $396.7 million. Meanwhile, SG&amp;A costs increased 31.5% YoY and 25.4% QoQ to $517 million due to higher personnel costs and sales and marketing activities. Despite this, R&amp;D costs represented 18.4% of total revenue compared to 38.1% a year ago and 28.9% in Q1. Similarly, SG&amp;A costs represented 21.5% of total revenue compared to 32.6% and 30.2% in the prior year and quarter, respectively.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"108\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/9/12/59696711-1726190624855486.png\" width=\"640\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Q2 Earnings Release</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Accordingly, NIO reported an operating margin of -29.9% in Q2, a significant improvement from -69.2% a year ago and -54.4% in Q1.</p> <p>For Q3, NIO expects deliveries to be between 61-63 thousand and revenues between $2.63-$2.7 billion, representing YoY growth between 0.2-3.2%.</p> <h2>Liquidity Concerns</h2> <p>At the end of Q2, NIO had $5.7 billion in cash, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term time deposits, compared to $6.3 billion at the end of Q1 and $8.1 billion at the end of Q4 2023, meaning that NIO’s cash burn during the quarter was around $600 million. At this rate, NIO should have enough cash to last 9 quarters. However, it should be noted that the company has more than $6.9 billion in current liabilities which must be paid within 1 year. In comparison, the company has short-term liquidity of only $5.5 billion and total liquidity of $6.25 billion.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>Cash</p></td> <td><p>$3,392,295,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Restricted Cash</p></td> <td><p>$507,663,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>ST Investments</p></td> <td><p>$1,598,439,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>ST Liquidity</p></td> <td><p>$5,498,397,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>LT Restricted Cash</p></td> <td><p>$13,777,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>LT Investments</p></td> <td><p>$739,756,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>LT Liquidity</p></td> <td><p>$753,533,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Total Liquidity</p></td> <td><p>$6,251,930,000</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>Based on NIO’s available short-term liquidity, it has a $1.4 billion liquidity gap to fulfill its current liabilities. As such, I expect NIO to raise capital either in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025, which would be extremely dilutive to its shareholders. At the current share price of $5.28, raising $1.4 billion would entail the issuance of more than 265.7 million shares, which would increase its outstanding shares by 13%.</p> <p>That said, NIO is set to launch the first model under its new sub-brand, ONVO, later this month and intends to launch another sub-brand, Firefly, next year, which could see NIO’s sales and marketing spend increase in the coming quarters, as I will discuss later in the article. As such, I believe NIO needs a cash injection of at least $3 billion in order to pay its current liabilities and continue funding its operations. This would result in NIO’s outstanding shares increasing by 28% at the current share price.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>OS</p></td> <td><p>2,049,836,045</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Share Price</p></td> <td><p>$5.28</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Forecasted Capital Raise</p></td> <td><p>$3,000,000,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Potential Dilution</p></td> <td><p>568,181,818</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Dilution %</p></td> <td><p>28%</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>In my opinion, NIO is likely to receive these funds from Abu Dhabi-based CYVN Holdings, which already owns a 20.1% stake in the company following its nearly $3 billion investments in NIO last year. I believe that could be the case due to CYVN’s interest in maintaining its ownership position in the company since such a capital raise would significantly dilute its stake. As is, CYVN is entitled to nominate 2 directors to the company’s board as long as it owns more than 15% of NIO’s outstanding shares.</p> <h2>The ONVO Drag</h2> <p>Since its inception, NIO has been mainly focused on offering premium EVs with a starting price of more than RMB 300 thousand. However, the company is now attempting to penetrate the Chinese mass market with 2 new sub-brands.</p> <p>The first sub-brand, ONVO, is set to launch its first model the L60 on September 19, and the company plans to release a new model every year. At the same time, NIO plans to start deliveries of its second new sub-brand with the codename Firefly, in 2025.</p> <p>According to NIO’s strategy, models under the ONVO sub-brand will have an ASP ranging between RMB 200-300 thousand. Meanwhile, models under the Firefly sub-brand will have an ASP ranging between RMB 100-200 thousand. In this way, NIO would be able to offer EVs ranging from RMB 100-800 thousand across its 3 brands.</p> <p>Although this endeavor could boost NIO’s deliveries, I believe it will be a headwind to the company’s margins and bottom line. In the Q2 earnings call, management shared that ONVO deliveries will be minimal in Q3 and will ramp up to reach near 10 thousand per month in December and 20 thousand per month sometime in 2025.</p> <p>Meanwhile, CEO William Li previously shared that ONVO will start contributing positively to NIO’s “P&amp;L” when it reaches a sales volume of 20 thousand units per month. Accordingly, I expect NIO’s vehicle margin to contract significantly starting Q4 until ONVO reaches the targeted sales volume, as until then, it’s likely that NIO will realize a negative margin on ONVO sales. Even then, I don’t expect NIO’s vehicle margin to improve until the NIO brand reaches a sales volume of 40 thousand per month, due to the lower margins of the ONVO sub-brand since its ASP is much lower than the ASP of the NIO brand.</p> <p>As is, management shared their long-term margin targets for each brand, with 25% for the NIO brand from 40 thousand deliveries per month, and 15% for the ONVO brand without stating the sales volume required to reach this target. Moreover, NIO’s vehicle margin could further contract when it launches the first model under the Firefly sub-brand which will have an ASP between RMB 100-200 thousand.</p> <p>Given that management is forecasting ONVO’s long-term margins at 15%, Firefly is very likely to have an even lower margin, which I estimate to be around 10% in the best case. When combining these factors with NIO’s service segment, which is yet to post a positive gross margin, I don’t see a scenario where NIO’s overall gross margins significantly improve than the 9.7% reported in Q2.</p> <p>Another reason why I expect NIO’s margins to contract is ONVO’s L60 potential to cannibalize sales of NIO’s best-selling model, ES6, due to the similarities between both vehicles. At the end of July, NIO’s cumulative deliveries were 557,518, including 219,422 for the ES6 alone, meaning that the ES6 is responsible for 39.4% of NIO’s total deliveries since its inception.</p> <p>Looking at both vehicles’ specs, the entry level ES6 boasts a CLTC range of 450-500 KM with dimensions of 4,854 mm*1,995 mm*1,703 mm, and a trunk size of 579 L. In comparison, the ONVO L60 will come in 3 range variants:</p> <ul> <li><p>Standard range with 555 KM.</p></li> <li><p>Long range with 730 KM.</p></li> <li><p>Extra Long Range with 1000+ KM.</p></li> </ul> <p>The ONVO L60 also has dimensions of 4828 mm*1930 mm*1616 mm, which is somewhat similar to the ES6. The only major differences between both vehicles are technology, trunk size, since the ONVO L60 doesn’t have a trunk, and price. While the entry level ES6 has an ASP of RMB 338 thousand, the ONVO L60 will have an ASP of RMB 219.9 thousand, 35% cheaper than the ES6.</p> <p>I believe the significant price difference and the minimal difference in value proposition between both models could be a factor contributing to ONVO L60 cannibalizing ES6 sales in China due to the nature of the Chinese consumer. It is well known that Chinese consumers are value oriented, meaning that they are more concerned with getting the best value for their money. This view is supported by insights from Premia Partners, which shows that frugality has become a trend among young Chinese consumers, the main driving force of China’s consumer market.</p> <p>In that case, NIO’s vehicle margins could deteriorate significantly as this scenario would see the company’s revenue per vehicle decline due to the significant price difference between the L60 and the ES6. This would be concerning for NIO, in my opinion, since its revenue per vehicle has been constantly falling as it stood at RMB 273.3 thousand in Q2 compared to RMB 305.5 thousand in the prior year and RMB 278.9 thousand in Q1.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>Period</p></td> <td><p>Q2 24</p></td> <td><p>Q1 24</p></td> <td><p>Q2 23</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Deliveries</p></td> <td><p>57,373</p></td> <td><p>30,053</p></td> <td><p>23,520</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Vehicle Rev</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥15,679,623,000</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥8,381,318,000</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥7,185,214,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Rev/Del</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥273,293</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥278,885</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥305,494</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>In addition to potential margin contraction, NIO could see its operating costs, mainly SG&amp;A, due to potentially higher marketing costs to stimulate demand for the ONVO sub-brand. In Q2, NIO’s delivery growth of 144% and 91% YoY and QoQ, respectively, was mainly driven by higher marketing spend of 31.5% and 25.4% YoY and QoQ, respectively. The company cited in the Q2 earnings call that the QoQ increase in SG&amp;A was a direct result of higher marketing spend following the launch of the new ES6 model and other products in March and April.</p> <p>With the company now launching a new sub-brand, I expect its marketing spend to grow at a higher rate as the ONVO brand isn’t as recognizable as the NIO brand. Therefore, the company would have to increase its marketing spend to build awareness of the ONVO brand, establish a brand identity, and attract customers. The same will also apply when NIO launches its second sub-brand, Firefly, next year, which means that it might be on track to incur high SG&amp;A costs over the coming 6 quarters at least.</p> <p>NIO’s SG&amp;A costs will also be impacted by the upgrade of its F2 factory to double shifts to support the production of L60, with the upgrade expected to be completed later this month or early October, per management in the Q2 earnings call. The company also expects to start production in its third factory by Q3 2025, which will impact both vehicle margins and SG&amp;A costs.</p> <p>In terms of margins, producing vehicles in 3 factories would increase NIO’s fixed costs such as utilities and maintenance, which will be a drag on margins until NIO is able to operate at full capacity. In terms of operating costs, producing vehicles in 3 factories will certainly lead to more costs related to hiring additional labor, managers, engineers, and technicians.</p> <p>When combining these factors with NIO’s margins potentially contracting due to the new sub-brands, the company could realize more losses until it is able to produce and sell vehicles at an optimum level which may take years to materialize. Considering the company’s liquidity position, NIO might have to resort to additional dilutive capital raises in the future to fund its operations, especially since it appears to be far from generating any profits or cash flow.</p> <h2>Valuation</h2> <p>With $4.99 billion in cash and $4.56 billion in debt, NIO has an EV of nearly $10.4 billion at its current share price of $5.28. Given that the consensus revenue estimate for the company in FY 2024 is $9.82 billion, the stock would be trading at an EV/sales multiple of 1.06.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>OS</p></td> <td><p>2,049,836,045</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Share Price</p></td> <td><p>$5.28</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Market Cap</p></td> <td><p>$10,823,134,317.60</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Cash</p></td> <td><p>$4,990,734,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Debt</p></td> <td><p>$4,558,006,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>EV</p></td> <td><p>$10,390,406,318</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Revenue Estimates</p></td> <td><p>$9,820,000,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>EV/Sales</p></td> <td><p>1.06</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>In comparison, Chinese EV makers Li Auto (LI), BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), and Zeekr (ZK) are trading at the following EV/sales multiples.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>Company</p></td> <td><p>EV/Sales</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>LI</p></td> <td><p>0.41</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>BYDDF</p></td> <td><p>0.94</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>ZK</p></td> <td><p>0.35</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Average</p></td> <td><p>0.57</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>By using the average EV/sales multiple of NIO’s competitors, my price target for the stock is $2.93 per share, implying 45% downside from its current valuation.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr><td colspan=\"2\"><p>NIO Price Target</p></td></tr> <tr> <td><p>Projected Sales</p></td> <td><p>$9,820,000,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Target EV/Sales</p></td> <td><p>0.57</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Implied EV</p></td> <td><p>$5,564,666,667</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Net Cash</p></td> <td><p>$432,728,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Equity Value</p></td> <td><p>$5,997,394,667</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>OS</p></td> <td><p>2,049,836,045</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Price Target</p></td> <td><p>$2.93</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Share Price</p></td> <td><p>$5.28</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Downside</p></td> <td><p>-45%</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <h2>Technical Analysis</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/9/12/saupload_a6f9e19fd87feae9623e1d7683f26466_thumb1.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>TrendSpider</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Looking at NIO’s daily chart, the stock has been in a downtrend since August 2023 and started forming a descending triangle pattern last April. Following the company’s Q2 earnings results, NIO broke out of the downtrend, the descending triangle pattern, and the upper Bollinger band, a sign of high volatility. That said, the stock has failed to break through a key resistance level, the 200 EMA, with the RSI regulating, which can be a sign of the stock losing momentum.</p> <p>Therefore, I recommend waiting for a break of the 9 EMA support level for investors looking to enter a short position as breaking this support level could see the stock test the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level near $4.4 and potentially the $3.66 support in the near-term.</p> <h2>Upside Risks</h2> <p>Risks to my thesis include NIO receiving non-dilutive funding to deal with its current liabilities either through debt financing or receiving a bailout from the Chinese government similar to the $1.4 billion injection it received from the municipal government of Hefei in 2020. Another risk to consider is NIO perfecting its 3-brand strategy by gaining significant market share in China’s mass market through ONVO and Firefly. In that case, NIO could grow its topline rapidly and expand its vehicle margins which would help offset the expected increase in operating costs, possibly leading to improved bottom line performance.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>While NIO’s Q2 earnings showed signs of disciplined cost management, I remain bearish on the stock due to the company’s liquidity concerns, as well as potential vehicle margin contraction and higher losses. The company’s cash balance is insufficient to pay off its current liabilities, and with the launch of the ONVO L60 on September 19, NIO is very likely to increase its marketing spend in the coming quarters to drive demand for the new sub-brand.</p> <p>Moreover, the L60 might have negative margins until it reaches a sales volume of 20 thousand per month, the target set for the new sub-brand to start contributing positively to “P&amp;L”, per CEO William Li. The L60 could also cannibalize sales of NIO’s best-selling model, ES6, due to the similarities between the 2 models, especially as the L60 is 35% cheaper than the ES6, which would negatively impact NIO’s margins. In light of these factors, I’m reiterating my sell rating for NIO with a price target of $2.93, representing 45% downside from current levels.</p> <div></div> <p>Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The ONVO Gamble Could Worsen Liquidity Crunch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The ONVO Gamble Could Worsen Liquidity Crunch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 23:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720998-nio-stock-onvo-gamble-could-worsen-liquidity-crunch><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NIO is in a liquidity crunch with current liabilities higher than its cash balance, which could see it resort to a dilutive capital raise in the next 2 quarters.NIO’s 3-brand strategy could help boost...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720998-nio-stock-onvo-gamble-could-worsen-liquidity-crunch\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4588":"碎股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","NIO.SI":"蔚来","ONVO":"Organovo Holdings Inc.","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4563":"昨日强势股","NIO":"蔚来","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BYDDF":"BYD Co., Ltd.","BK6125":"汽车制造商","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4531":"中概回港概念","ZK":"极氪","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4555":"新能源车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720998-nio-stock-onvo-gamble-could-worsen-liquidity-crunch","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2467770782","content_text":"NIO is in a liquidity crunch with current liabilities higher than its cash balance, which could see it resort to a dilutive capital raise in the next 2 quarters.NIO’s 3-brand strategy could help boost delivery volumes, but could lead to margin contraction.I expect NIO’s losses to increase as it increases its marketing spend to drive demand for the ONVO L60, set to launch on September 19.The opening of a third factory in Q3 2025 could have a negative impact on vehicle margins and operating costs.My price target for NIO is $2.93, representing 45% downside from its current valuation.   tang90246 Last February, I was bearish on NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) due to its market share loss in China, its main market, its investments in the loss making battery swapping business, and lackluster expansion in the European market. Following my coverage, NIO reached a 52-week low of $3.61, before surging recently on the back of its Q2 earnings that were highlighted by improving margins and better cost management. Despite this, I expect the company’s losses to increase in the coming quarters due to the upcoming launch of the ONVO sub-brand’s L60 model, that targets China’s mass market, on September 19. While this endeavor could help boost delivery volumes, it would come at the expense of higher marketing costs, margin contraction, and possibly cannibalizing ES6 sales, NIO’s best selling model, in my opinion. Moreover, I expect NIO to raise capital in the near future to deal with its current liabilities, which are significantly higher than its current cash balance. For these reasons, I’m reiterating my sell rating with a price target of $2.93 per share, implying 45% downside from current levels. Q2 Overview In Q2, NIO reported YoY revenue growth of 99% to $2.4 billion driven by an 118% increase in vehicle sales, and QoQ growth of 76%, also driven by an 87% increase in vehicle sales. During the quarter, NIO generated $2.2 billion from vehicle sales as it delivered a record 57,373 vehicles compared to 30,053 in Q1 2024 and 23,520 in Q2 2023. In terms of margins, NIO reported a vehicle margin of 12.2% in Q2 compared to 9.2% in Q1 and 6.2% a year ago, due to lower material costs and realizing the benefits of economies of scale during the quarter. As a result, total gross margin in Q2 was 9.7% compared to 4.9% and 1% in the prior quarter and year, respectively. Looking at NIO’s cost structure, R&D costs declined 3.8% YoY to $442.9 million, however, that represented an 11.6% QoQ increase from $396.7 million. Meanwhile, SG&A costs increased 31.5% YoY and 25.4% QoQ to $517 million due to higher personnel costs and sales and marketing activities. Despite this, R&D costs represented 18.4% of total revenue compared to 38.1% a year ago and 28.9% in Q1. Similarly, SG&A costs represented 21.5% of total revenue compared to 32.6% and 30.2% in the prior year and quarter, respectively.   Q2 Earnings Release Accordingly, NIO reported an operating margin of -29.9% in Q2, a significant improvement from -69.2% a year ago and -54.4% in Q1. For Q3, NIO expects deliveries to be between 61-63 thousand and revenues between $2.63-$2.7 billion, representing YoY growth between 0.2-3.2%. Liquidity Concerns At the end of Q2, NIO had $5.7 billion in cash, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term time deposits, compared to $6.3 billion at the end of Q1 and $8.1 billion at the end of Q4 2023, meaning that NIO’s cash burn during the quarter was around $600 million. At this rate, NIO should have enough cash to last 9 quarters. However, it should be noted that the company has more than $6.9 billion in current liabilities which must be paid within 1 year. In comparison, the company has short-term liquidity of only $5.5 billion and total liquidity of $6.25 billion.       Cash $3,392,295,000   Restricted Cash $507,663,000   ST Investments $1,598,439,000   ST Liquidity $5,498,397,000   LT Restricted Cash $13,777,000   LT Investments $739,756,000   LT Liquidity $753,533,000   Total Liquidity $6,251,930,000   Click to enlarge Based on NIO’s available short-term liquidity, it has a $1.4 billion liquidity gap to fulfill its current liabilities. As such, I expect NIO to raise capital either in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025, which would be extremely dilutive to its shareholders. At the current share price of $5.28, raising $1.4 billion would entail the issuance of more than 265.7 million shares, which would increase its outstanding shares by 13%. That said, NIO is set to launch the first model under its new sub-brand, ONVO, later this month and intends to launch another sub-brand, Firefly, next year, which could see NIO’s sales and marketing spend increase in the coming quarters, as I will discuss later in the article. As such, I believe NIO needs a cash injection of at least $3 billion in order to pay its current liabilities and continue funding its operations. This would result in NIO’s outstanding shares increasing by 28% at the current share price.       OS 2,049,836,045   Share Price $5.28   Forecasted Capital Raise $3,000,000,000   Potential Dilution 568,181,818   Dilution % 28%   Click to enlarge In my opinion, NIO is likely to receive these funds from Abu Dhabi-based CYVN Holdings, which already owns a 20.1% stake in the company following its nearly $3 billion investments in NIO last year. I believe that could be the case due to CYVN’s interest in maintaining its ownership position in the company since such a capital raise would significantly dilute its stake. As is, CYVN is entitled to nominate 2 directors to the company’s board as long as it owns more than 15% of NIO’s outstanding shares. The ONVO Drag Since its inception, NIO has been mainly focused on offering premium EVs with a starting price of more than RMB 300 thousand. However, the company is now attempting to penetrate the Chinese mass market with 2 new sub-brands. The first sub-brand, ONVO, is set to launch its first model the L60 on September 19, and the company plans to release a new model every year. At the same time, NIO plans to start deliveries of its second new sub-brand with the codename Firefly, in 2025. According to NIO’s strategy, models under the ONVO sub-brand will have an ASP ranging between RMB 200-300 thousand. Meanwhile, models under the Firefly sub-brand will have an ASP ranging between RMB 100-200 thousand. In this way, NIO would be able to offer EVs ranging from RMB 100-800 thousand across its 3 brands. Although this endeavor could boost NIO’s deliveries, I believe it will be a headwind to the company’s margins and bottom line. In the Q2 earnings call, management shared that ONVO deliveries will be minimal in Q3 and will ramp up to reach near 10 thousand per month in December and 20 thousand per month sometime in 2025. Meanwhile, CEO William Li previously shared that ONVO will start contributing positively to NIO’s “P&L” when it reaches a sales volume of 20 thousand units per month. Accordingly, I expect NIO’s vehicle margin to contract significantly starting Q4 until ONVO reaches the targeted sales volume, as until then, it’s likely that NIO will realize a negative margin on ONVO sales. Even then, I don’t expect NIO’s vehicle margin to improve until the NIO brand reaches a sales volume of 40 thousand per month, due to the lower margins of the ONVO sub-brand since its ASP is much lower than the ASP of the NIO brand. As is, management shared their long-term margin targets for each brand, with 25% for the NIO brand from 40 thousand deliveries per month, and 15% for the ONVO brand without stating the sales volume required to reach this target. Moreover, NIO’s vehicle margin could further contract when it launches the first model under the Firefly sub-brand which will have an ASP between RMB 100-200 thousand. Given that management is forecasting ONVO’s long-term margins at 15%, Firefly is very likely to have an even lower margin, which I estimate to be around 10% in the best case. When combining these factors with NIO’s service segment, which is yet to post a positive gross margin, I don’t see a scenario where NIO’s overall gross margins significantly improve than the 9.7% reported in Q2. Another reason why I expect NIO’s margins to contract is ONVO’s L60 potential to cannibalize sales of NIO’s best-selling model, ES6, due to the similarities between both vehicles. At the end of July, NIO’s cumulative deliveries were 557,518, including 219,422 for the ES6 alone, meaning that the ES6 is responsible for 39.4% of NIO’s total deliveries since its inception. Looking at both vehicles’ specs, the entry level ES6 boasts a CLTC range of 450-500 KM with dimensions of 4,854 mm*1,995 mm*1,703 mm, and a trunk size of 579 L. In comparison, the ONVO L60 will come in 3 range variants:  Standard range with 555 KM. Long range with 730 KM. Extra Long Range with 1000+ KM.  The ONVO L60 also has dimensions of 4828 mm*1930 mm*1616 mm, which is somewhat similar to the ES6. The only major differences between both vehicles are technology, trunk size, since the ONVO L60 doesn’t have a trunk, and price. While the entry level ES6 has an ASP of RMB 338 thousand, the ONVO L60 will have an ASP of RMB 219.9 thousand, 35% cheaper than the ES6. I believe the significant price difference and the minimal difference in value proposition between both models could be a factor contributing to ONVO L60 cannibalizing ES6 sales in China due to the nature of the Chinese consumer. It is well known that Chinese consumers are value oriented, meaning that they are more concerned with getting the best value for their money. This view is supported by insights from Premia Partners, which shows that frugality has become a trend among young Chinese consumers, the main driving force of China’s consumer market. In that case, NIO’s vehicle margins could deteriorate significantly as this scenario would see the company’s revenue per vehicle decline due to the significant price difference between the L60 and the ES6. This would be concerning for NIO, in my opinion, since its revenue per vehicle has been constantly falling as it stood at RMB 273.3 thousand in Q2 compared to RMB 305.5 thousand in the prior year and RMB 278.9 thousand in Q1.         Period Q2 24 Q1 24 Q2 23   Deliveries 57,373 30,053 23,520   Vehicle Rev RMB¥15,679,623,000 RMB¥8,381,318,000 RMB¥7,185,214,000   Rev/Del RMB¥273,293 RMB¥278,885 RMB¥305,494   Click to enlarge In addition to potential margin contraction, NIO could see its operating costs, mainly SG&A, due to potentially higher marketing costs to stimulate demand for the ONVO sub-brand. In Q2, NIO’s delivery growth of 144% and 91% YoY and QoQ, respectively, was mainly driven by higher marketing spend of 31.5% and 25.4% YoY and QoQ, respectively. The company cited in the Q2 earnings call that the QoQ increase in SG&A was a direct result of higher marketing spend following the launch of the new ES6 model and other products in March and April. With the company now launching a new sub-brand, I expect its marketing spend to grow at a higher rate as the ONVO brand isn’t as recognizable as the NIO brand. Therefore, the company would have to increase its marketing spend to build awareness of the ONVO brand, establish a brand identity, and attract customers. The same will also apply when NIO launches its second sub-brand, Firefly, next year, which means that it might be on track to incur high SG&A costs over the coming 6 quarters at least. NIO’s SG&A costs will also be impacted by the upgrade of its F2 factory to double shifts to support the production of L60, with the upgrade expected to be completed later this month or early October, per management in the Q2 earnings call. The company also expects to start production in its third factory by Q3 2025, which will impact both vehicle margins and SG&A costs. In terms of margins, producing vehicles in 3 factories would increase NIO’s fixed costs such as utilities and maintenance, which will be a drag on margins until NIO is able to operate at full capacity. In terms of operating costs, producing vehicles in 3 factories will certainly lead to more costs related to hiring additional labor, managers, engineers, and technicians. When combining these factors with NIO’s margins potentially contracting due to the new sub-brands, the company could realize more losses until it is able to produce and sell vehicles at an optimum level which may take years to materialize. Considering the company’s liquidity position, NIO might have to resort to additional dilutive capital raises in the future to fund its operations, especially since it appears to be far from generating any profits or cash flow. Valuation With $4.99 billion in cash and $4.56 billion in debt, NIO has an EV of nearly $10.4 billion at its current share price of $5.28. Given that the consensus revenue estimate for the company in FY 2024 is $9.82 billion, the stock would be trading at an EV/sales multiple of 1.06.       OS 2,049,836,045   Share Price $5.28   Market Cap $10,823,134,317.60   Cash $4,990,734,000   Debt $4,558,006,000   EV $10,390,406,318   Revenue Estimates $9,820,000,000   EV/Sales 1.06   Click to enlarge In comparison, Chinese EV makers Li Auto (LI), BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), and Zeekr (ZK) are trading at the following EV/sales multiples.       Company EV/Sales   LI 0.41   BYDDF 0.94   ZK 0.35   Average 0.57   Click to enlarge By using the average EV/sales multiple of NIO’s competitors, my price target for the stock is $2.93 per share, implying 45% downside from its current valuation.      NIO Price Target  Projected Sales $9,820,000,000   Target EV/Sales 0.57   Implied EV $5,564,666,667   Net Cash $432,728,000   Equity Value $5,997,394,667   OS 2,049,836,045   Price Target $2.93   Share Price $5.28   Downside -45%   Click to enlarge Technical Analysis   TrendSpider Looking at NIO’s daily chart, the stock has been in a downtrend since August 2023 and started forming a descending triangle pattern last April. Following the company’s Q2 earnings results, NIO broke out of the downtrend, the descending triangle pattern, and the upper Bollinger band, a sign of high volatility. That said, the stock has failed to break through a key resistance level, the 200 EMA, with the RSI regulating, which can be a sign of the stock losing momentum. Therefore, I recommend waiting for a break of the 9 EMA support level for investors looking to enter a short position as breaking this support level could see the stock test the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level near $4.4 and potentially the $3.66 support in the near-term. Upside Risks Risks to my thesis include NIO receiving non-dilutive funding to deal with its current liabilities either through debt financing or receiving a bailout from the Chinese government similar to the $1.4 billion injection it received from the municipal government of Hefei in 2020. Another risk to consider is NIO perfecting its 3-brand strategy by gaining significant market share in China’s mass market through ONVO and Firefly. In that case, NIO could grow its topline rapidly and expand its vehicle margins which would help offset the expected increase in operating costs, possibly leading to improved bottom line performance. Conclusion While NIO’s Q2 earnings showed signs of disciplined cost management, I remain bearish on the stock due to the company’s liquidity concerns, as well as potential vehicle margin contraction and higher losses. The company’s cash balance is insufficient to pay off its current liabilities, and with the launch of the ONVO L60 on September 19, NIO is very likely to increase its marketing spend in the coming quarters to drive demand for the new sub-brand. Moreover, the L60 might have negative margins until it reaches a sales volume of 20 thousand per month, the target set for the new sub-brand to start contributing positively to “P&L”, per CEO William Li. The L60 could also cannibalize sales of NIO’s best-selling model, ES6, due to the similarities between the 2 models, especially as the L60 is 35% cheaper than the ES6, which would negatively impact NIO’s margins. In light of these factors, I’m reiterating my sell rating for NIO with a price target of $2.93, representing 45% downside from current levels.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":624155276,"gmtCreate":1677171210497,"gmtModify":1677173156059,"author":{"id":"4110814681747552","authorId":"4110814681747552","name":"Yap68","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110814681747552","authorIdStr":"4110814681747552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's just a dream","listText":"It's just a dream","text":"It's just a dream","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624155276","repostId":"2313884126","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2313884126","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Everything about China's Innovation","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Pandaily","id":"1045030379","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aea029d3817be732c49c2a6b4e47b544"},"pubTimestamp":1677127862,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2313884126?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-23 12:51","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"NIO’s Sub-Brand Alpine Targets Monthly Delivery of 50K Units","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2313884126","media":"Pandaily","summary":"\nAlpine, a sub-brand of Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO aimed at consumers with a budget between 200,000 yuan ($29,019) and 300,000 yuan ($43,528), will be rolled out through new sales channels. \n","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>Alpine, a sub-brand of Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO aimed at consumers with a budget between 200,000 yuan ($29,019) and 300,000 yuan ($43,528), will be rolled out through new sales channels. The number of models is expected to be half of that of NIO, media outlet Jiemian News reported on February 22.</p>\n<p>Alpine is built on NIO‘s NT3.0 platform that supports high-voltage fast charging technology. Mass production of Alpine models is expected to commence in the second half of 2024. The head of the brand is Ai Tiecheng, a newcomer to the automobile industry and a friend of Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of NIO. According to NIO, Alpine’s monthly sales volume will reach 50,000 units.</p>\n<p>William Li, chairman of NIO, once said that Alpine’s models will directly compete with the Tesla Model Y and Model 3, with prices about 10% lower than Tesla.</p>\n<p>Qin previously pointed out that this year’s lineup of NIO cars includes at least eight different models. According to sources close to the company, meeting the needs of customers in the lower-end market remains the greatest challenge for NIO.</p>\n<p>Firefly, another sub-brand of NIO, will produce cars priced between 100,000 yuan ($14,508) and 200,000 yuan ($29,016) and aim  at European markets. Firefly cars will support battery swapping and leasing mode, and is expected to be released in the third quarter of next year. Insiders involved in the Firefly project said that its products will compete with Volkswagen Polo. While less premium compared to NIO and Alpine, Firefly’s products are aimed to be superior to those of many European automobile companies.</p>\n<p>The structure of NIO‘s three major brands (NIO, Alpine, and Firefly) are similar to Toyota’s major brands (Toyota, Suzuki, and Lexus). NIO expects to become one of the top five automobile manufacturers in the world.</p>\n<p>In addition, NIO expects to reach its break-even point in 2024, at which time its sub-brands will be entering their production stages. By expanding products and stimulating sales, NIO hopes to realize a profit on the basis of maintaining its current gross profit margin.</p>\n<p><strong>SEE ALSO: NIO’s New Factory to Produce EV Models from Third Sub-Brand</strong></p>\n<p>NIO has invested in fields related to electric vehicles, including batteries and battery swapping stations, in addition to mobile phones and chips. However, whether NIO‘s resources, talent, and management strategies can support large-scale business growth is often questioned. Li pointed out in a company memo at the beginning of this year that the team expansion in 2022 led to unclear responsibilities, inconsistent goals, inefficient processes, and developmental redundancies; thus, there is still much room for improvement.</p> </div></body></html>","source":"pandaily_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO’s Sub-Brand Alpine Targets Monthly Delivery of 50K Units</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO’s Sub-Brand Alpine Targets Monthly Delivery of 50K Units\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1045030379\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aea029d3817be732c49c2a6b4e47b544);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Pandaily </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-23 12:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>\n<p>Alpine, a sub-brand of Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO aimed at consumers with a budget between 200,000 yuan ($29,019) and 300,000 yuan ($43,528), will be rolled out through new sales channels. The number of models is expected to be half of that of NIO, media outlet Jiemian News reported on February 22.</p>\n<p>Alpine is built on NIO‘s NT3.0 platform that supports high-voltage fast charging technology. Mass production of Alpine models is expected to commence in the second half of 2024. The head of the brand is Ai Tiecheng, a newcomer to the automobile industry and a friend of Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of NIO. According to NIO, Alpine’s monthly sales volume will reach 50,000 units.</p>\n<p>William Li, chairman of NIO, once said that Alpine’s models will directly compete with the Tesla Model Y and Model 3, with prices about 10% lower than Tesla.</p>\n<p>Qin previously pointed out that this year’s lineup of NIO cars includes at least eight different models. According to sources close to the company, meeting the needs of customers in the lower-end market remains the greatest challenge for NIO.</p>\n<p>Firefly, another sub-brand of NIO, will produce cars priced between 100,000 yuan ($14,508) and 200,000 yuan ($29,016) and aim  at European markets. Firefly cars will support battery swapping and leasing mode, and is expected to be released in the third quarter of next year. Insiders involved in the Firefly project said that its products will compete with Volkswagen Polo. While less premium compared to NIO and Alpine, Firefly’s products are aimed to be superior to those of many European automobile companies.</p>\n<p>The structure of NIO‘s three major brands (NIO, Alpine, and Firefly) are similar to Toyota’s major brands (Toyota, Suzuki, and Lexus). NIO expects to become one of the top five automobile manufacturers in the world.</p>\n<p>In addition, NIO expects to reach its break-even point in 2024, at which time its sub-brands will be entering their production stages. By expanding products and stimulating sales, NIO hopes to realize a profit on the basis of maintaining its current gross profit margin.</p>\n<p><strong>SEE ALSO: NIO’s New Factory to Produce EV Models from Third Sub-Brand</strong></p>\n<p>NIO has invested in fields related to electric vehicles, including batteries and battery swapping stations, in addition to mobile phones and chips. However, whether NIO‘s resources, talent, and management strategies can support large-scale business growth is often questioned. Li pointed out in a company memo at the beginning of this year that the team expansion in 2022 led to unclear responsibilities, inconsistent goals, inefficient processes, and developmental redundancies; thus, there is still much room for improvement.</p> </div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://assets.pandaily.com/uploads/2023/02/未命名的设计-1-25.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4509":"腾讯概念","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4588":"碎股","NIO":"蔚来","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","09866":"蔚来-SW","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://pandaily.com/nios-sub-brand-alpine-targets-monthly-delivery-of-50k-units/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2313884126","content_text":"Alpine, a sub-brand of Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO aimed at consumers with a budget between 200,000 yuan ($29,019) and 300,000 yuan ($43,528), will be rolled out through new sales channels. The number of models is expected to be half of that of NIO, media outlet Jiemian News reported on February 22.\nAlpine is built on NIO‘s NT3.0 platform that supports high-voltage fast charging technology. Mass production of Alpine models is expected to commence in the second half of 2024. The head of the brand is Ai Tiecheng, a newcomer to the automobile industry and a friend of Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of NIO. According to NIO, Alpine’s monthly sales volume will reach 50,000 units.\nWilliam Li, chairman of NIO, once said that Alpine’s models will directly compete with the Tesla Model Y and Model 3, with prices about 10% lower than Tesla.\nQin previously pointed out that this year’s lineup of NIO cars includes at least eight different models. According to sources close to the company, meeting the needs of customers in the lower-end market remains the greatest challenge for NIO.\nFirefly, another sub-brand of NIO, will produce cars priced between 100,000 yuan ($14,508) and 200,000 yuan ($29,016) and aim  at European markets. Firefly cars will support battery swapping and leasing mode, and is expected to be released in the third quarter of next year. Insiders involved in the Firefly project said that its products will compete with Volkswagen Polo. While less premium compared to NIO and Alpine, Firefly’s products are aimed to be superior to those of many European automobile companies.\nThe structure of NIO‘s three major brands (NIO, Alpine, and Firefly) are similar to Toyota’s major brands (Toyota, Suzuki, and Lexus). NIO expects to become one of the top five automobile manufacturers in the world.\nIn addition, NIO expects to reach its break-even point in 2024, at which time its sub-brands will be entering their production stages. By expanding products and stimulating sales, NIO hopes to realize a profit on the basis of maintaining its current gross profit margin.\nSEE ALSO: NIO’s New Factory to Produce EV Models from Third Sub-Brand\nNIO has invested in fields related to electric vehicles, including batteries and battery swapping stations, in addition to mobile phones and chips. However, whether NIO‘s resources, talent, and management strategies can support large-scale business growth is often questioned. Li pointed out in a company memo at the beginning of this year that the team expansion in 2022 led to unclear responsibilities, inconsistent goals, inefficient processes, and developmental redundancies; thus, there is still much room for improvement.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":624155661,"gmtCreate":1677171113355,"gmtModify":1677173152577,"author":{"id":"4110814681747552","authorId":"4110814681747552","name":"Yap68","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110814681747552","authorIdStr":"4110814681747552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Always dream only","listText":"Always dream only","text":"Always dream only","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624155661","repostId":"1166052690","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":623021863,"gmtCreate":1670931216654,"gmtModify":1676538461703,"author":{"id":"4110814681747552","authorId":"4110814681747552","name":"Yap68","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110814681747552","authorIdStr":"4110814681747552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really? Be more responsible when you are writing something, really hatethis kind of irresponsible joker that advise people to buy or sell, you never know what's their motive behind","listText":"Really? Be more responsible when you are writing something, really hatethis kind of irresponsible joker that advise people to buy or sell, you never know what's their motive behind","text":"Really? Be more responsible when you are writing something, really hatethis kind of irresponsible joker that advise people to buy or sell, you never know what's their motive behind","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/623021863","repostId":"2290787566","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":623021863,"gmtCreate":1670931216654,"gmtModify":1676538461703,"author":{"id":"4110814681747552","authorId":"4110814681747552","name":"Yap68","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110814681747552","authorIdStr":"4110814681747552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really? Be more responsible when you are writing something, really hatethis kind of irresponsible joker that advise people to buy or sell, you never know what's their motive behind","listText":"Really? Be more responsible when you are writing something, really hatethis kind of irresponsible joker that advise people to buy or sell, you never know what's their motive behind","text":"Really? Be more responsible when you are writing something, really hatethis kind of irresponsible joker that advise people to buy or sell, you never know what's their motive behind","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/623021863","repostId":"2290787566","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2290787566","pubTimestamp":1670930186,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2290787566?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-13 19:16","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"7 EV Stocks to Sell Before They Dead End","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290787566","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Substantial downside risk remains with these seven EV stocks to sell.ChargePoint (CHPT): This EV cha","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Substantial downside risk remains with these seven EV stocks to sell.</li><li><b>ChargePoint</b> (<b>CHPT</b>): This EV charging company is likely to continue to operate in the red.</li><li><b>Canoo</b> (<b>GOEV</b>): This cash-starved EV startup will likely sputter due to heavy shareholder dilution.</li><li><b>Hyzon Motors</b> (<b>HYZN</b>): Past controversy and continued poor operating results makes this another EV startup to sell.</li><li><b>Lucid Group</b> (<b>LCID</b>): The “story” behind this former hot stock continues to unravel.</li><li><b>Nio</b> (<b>NIO</b>): The China-based electric vehicle maker’s latest rally could soon reverse course.</li><li><b>Quantumscape</b> (<b>QS</b>): Time is not on the side of this early-stage EV battery technology company.</li><li><b>Tesla</b> (<b>TSLA</b>): Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover could come at the expense of the top dog in the EV space.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0ca69539b0e05208badf216496b864c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Shutterstock</p><p>Like other speculative growth plays, most electric vehicle, or EV stocks, peaked in price at some point in 2021. Since then, most companies operating in this fast-growing sector have declined substantially in 2022. That said, while it may appear to some investors that this is a sector worth considering as it may have bottomed out, plenty of names in this space still belong in the “EV stocks to sell” category.</p><p>Indeed, despite what many have called a bubble in the EV sector seemingly popping, scores of publicly-traded electric vehicle stocks continue to trade at extremely high valuations. Along with rich valuations, these vehicle electrification plays are also facing deteriorating fundamentals.</p><p>Growth is falling short of expectations, milestones aren’t being met, and the hope and hype that sent this sector to “the moon” during the pandemic era continues to dissipate.</p><p>Thus, investors shouldn’t get taken for a ride with these overpriced EV stocks to sell. With weakening fundamentals, there’s more room for most of these stocks to fall. Thus, I think investors want to hit the brakes with these EV companies right now.</p><table border=\"1\"><tbody><tr><td><b>CHPT</b></td><td>ChargePoint</td><td>$11.06</td></tr><tr><td><b>GOEV</b></td><td>Canoo</td><td>$1.35</td></tr><tr><td><b>HYZN</b></td><td>Hyzon Motors</td><td>$1.62</td></tr><tr><td><b>LCID</b></td><td>Lucid Group</td><td>$8.37</td></tr><tr><td><b>NIO</b></td><td>Nio</td><td>$12.98</td></tr><tr><td><b>QS</b></td><td>QuantumScape</td><td>$7.04</td></tr><tr><td><b>TSLA</b></td><td>Tesla</td><td>$180.49</td></tr></tbody></table><h2>ChargePoint (CHPT)</h2><p>There was a lot of buzz surrounding EV charging solutions provider <b>ChargePoint</b> (NYSE:<b>CHPT</b>) in the lead up to its debut in the public markets via a special purpose acquisition company (or SPAC) merger in February 2021.</p><p>In fact, even before the SPAC merger closed, shares in CHPT’s “blank-check” predecessor, <b>Switchback Energy</b>, surged to levels that were nearly five-times higher than its original SPAC price ($10 per share). Since then, however, CHPT stock has all but fallen back to this initial SPAC price, changing hands today for around $11 per share.</p><p>Still, I wouldn’t assume that the $10 level is any sort of floor for ChargePoint. Although the company reported 93% revenue growth last quarter, it remains far away from reaching profitability any time soon. Expected to burn through half of its cash position over the next twelve months, CHPT stock may continue to slide lower, as unprofitable growth stocks continue to fall out of favor.</p><h2>Canoo (GOEV)</h2><p><b>Canoo</b> (NASDAQ:<b>GOEV</b>) shares have taken a 83.5% haircut so far in 2022, but this early-stage maker of electric delivery vehicles has actually made major progress throughout this year. Namely, the company has received some large orders for its vehicles from high-profile customers, including the likes of <b>Walmart</b> (NYSE:<b>WMT</b>).</p><p>So, why has GOEV stock taken such a big dive since January? Blame it on shareholder dilution. As Louis Navellier discussed back in October, this cash-starved startup needs capital in order to fulfill these orders. The company has continued to raise this cash through the dilutive sale of new shares.</p><p>Based on its latest Securities and Exchange Commission (or SEC) filings, it’s clear that Canoo continues to lean on this financing source. Future equity raises will limit how much GOEV stock will be ultimately worth on a per-share basis (if it ever becomes profitable). Thus, for long-term investors, this is a dilution story that’s worth avoiding, as a further sharp decline in price may be in store.</p><h2>Hyzon Motors (HYZN)</h2><p>A rich valuation and poor fundamentals aren’t the only reason why <b>Hyzon Motors</b> (NASDAQ:<b>HYZN</b>) is among the top EV stocks to sell. The question of whether things are really on the up-and-up with this company is another big concern as well.</p><p>This year, HYZN stock was one of several stocks hit by scandal and controversy. Not only did Hyzon find itself the target of an SEC investigation, but the company itself stated that past financial statements “cannot be relied upon.” Additionally, despite releasing new figures, these more recently-released numbers aren’t exactly much to get excited about.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2022 (the last period in which HYZN has provided quarterly figures), the company reported a $26.8 million operating loss, on just $356,000 in revenue. With the situation possibly getting materially worse since then, going against the grain and buying HYZN stock today appears to be a move that will ultimately end in tears.</p><h2>Lucid Group (LCID)</h2><p>A year ago, <b>Lucid Group</b> (NASDAQ:<b>LCID</b>) appeared poised to eventually grab a large share of the premium EV market. Flash forward to today, and the company’s prospects have diminished considerably. Initially, due to production headwinds, Lucid announced some significantly reduced production targets.</p><p>More recently, the company slashed its targets due to quarterly results falling short of expectations, and a drop in reservations for its vehicles. Accordingly, while LCID stock has plunged from the $40 level to the single-digits following this year’s developments, an additional pullback may lie ahead.</p><p>In the coming quarters, if Lucid fails to start meeting/beating expectations, it’ll be difficult for the company to maintain its now-lowered, but still-lofty valuation. The stock continues to trade at a high price-to-sales ratio (nearly 20-times). Although possibly worth another look if the company ends up cratering to penny stock price levels (under $5 per share), for now, I think passing on LCID is the best move.</p><h2>Nio (NIO)</h2><p>Zooming over 30% higher in the past month, many investors may think <b>Nio</b> (NYSE:<b>NIO</b>) has once again become one of the EV stocks to buy. However, I don’t think it’s time to dive in. This China-based electric vehicle maker remains one of the top EV stocks to sell, as this latest rally could soon reverse course.</p><p>Sure, the big jump in Nio’s stock price over the last month has been driven by promising news. The company reported a record number of vehicle deliveries in November. China also appears keen on easing on its “Zero Covid” policy, which has hit both production and demand for Nio’s vehicles.</p><p>Even so, as one <i>Seeking Alpha</i> commentator recently argued, this big increase in November may be due to China’s EV tax incentives expiring this year. If this proves true, and sales growth sputters again starting in 2023, shares could return to sub-$10 per share prices.</p><h2>QuantumScape (QS)</h2><p>After its SPAC merger in late-2020, EV battery technology startup <b>Quantumscape</b> (NYSE:<b>QS</b>) skyrocketed to prices well over $100 per share. Presently, investors can buy this same stock at around $7 per share.</p><p>That said, those who think this means QS stock is now in oversold territory should think otherwise. Shares in this company, which is at work developing lithium solid state batteries (or SSBs) for electric vehicles, may keep dropping, as time is not on its side.</p><p>At least, that’s the view of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>’s Adam Jonas. In November, the analyst downgraded shares from “hold” to “sell,” and lowered his price target from $12 to $4 per share. This downgrade appears to be mostly due to the fact that QuantumScape’s timeline to commercialization is far too long. Years away from reaching its next commercialization hurdle, rising interest rates and high operating losses are likely to apply more pressure to the stock.</p><h2>Tesla (TSLA)</h2><p><b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:<b>TSLA</b>) is still not only the most valuable EV stock by market cap, but also the most valuable automaker by market cap (for now). However, TSLA has fallen more than 50% from its all-time high, and could be at risk of falling further.</p><p>Globally, competition in the EV sector is heating up. Incumbent automakers and “Tesla killers” alike in the U.S. are moving quickly to grab their piece of the electric vehicle market. Tesla could also be facing big issues in China, where it is rumored to be pulling back on production.</p><p>Worse yet, with CEO Elon Musk preoccupied with his latest personal acquisition (<b>Twitter</b>), these factors could have even more of a negative impact than they would if Musk were fully focused on keeping this EV powerhouse at the top of the heap. Investors may want to follow the hedge fund community’s lead, and put TSLA stock in the EV stocks to sell bucket.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 EV Stocks to Sell Before They Dead End</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 EV Stocks to Sell Before They Dead End\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-13 19:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/12/7-ev-stocks-to-sell-before-they-dead-end/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Substantial downside risk remains with these seven EV stocks to sell.ChargePoint (CHPT): This EV charging company is likely to continue to operate in the red.Canoo (GOEV): This cash-starved EV startup...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/12/7-ev-stocks-to-sell-before-they-dead-end/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","WMT":"沃尔玛","HYZN":"Hyzon Motors Inc.","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","QS":"Quantumscape Corp.","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4540":"固态电池","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NIO":"蔚来","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4542":"充电桩","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","BK4581":"高盛持仓","CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc.","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/12/7-ev-stocks-to-sell-before-they-dead-end/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290787566","content_text":"Substantial downside risk remains with these seven EV stocks to sell.ChargePoint (CHPT): This EV charging company is likely to continue to operate in the red.Canoo (GOEV): This cash-starved EV startup will likely sputter due to heavy shareholder dilution.Hyzon Motors (HYZN): Past controversy and continued poor operating results makes this another EV startup to sell.Lucid Group (LCID): The “story” behind this former hot stock continues to unravel.Nio (NIO): The China-based electric vehicle maker’s latest rally could soon reverse course.Quantumscape (QS): Time is not on the side of this early-stage EV battery technology company.Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover could come at the expense of the top dog in the EV space.Source: ShutterstockLike other speculative growth plays, most electric vehicle, or EV stocks, peaked in price at some point in 2021. Since then, most companies operating in this fast-growing sector have declined substantially in 2022. That said, while it may appear to some investors that this is a sector worth considering as it may have bottomed out, plenty of names in this space still belong in the “EV stocks to sell” category.Indeed, despite what many have called a bubble in the EV sector seemingly popping, scores of publicly-traded electric vehicle stocks continue to trade at extremely high valuations. Along with rich valuations, these vehicle electrification plays are also facing deteriorating fundamentals.Growth is falling short of expectations, milestones aren’t being met, and the hope and hype that sent this sector to “the moon” during the pandemic era continues to dissipate.Thus, investors shouldn’t get taken for a ride with these overpriced EV stocks to sell. With weakening fundamentals, there’s more room for most of these stocks to fall. Thus, I think investors want to hit the brakes with these EV companies right now.CHPTChargePoint$11.06GOEVCanoo$1.35HYZNHyzon Motors$1.62LCIDLucid Group$8.37NIONio$12.98QSQuantumScape$7.04TSLATesla$180.49ChargePoint (CHPT)There was a lot of buzz surrounding EV charging solutions provider ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) in the lead up to its debut in the public markets via a special purpose acquisition company (or SPAC) merger in February 2021.In fact, even before the SPAC merger closed, shares in CHPT’s “blank-check” predecessor, Switchback Energy, surged to levels that were nearly five-times higher than its original SPAC price ($10 per share). Since then, however, CHPT stock has all but fallen back to this initial SPAC price, changing hands today for around $11 per share.Still, I wouldn’t assume that the $10 level is any sort of floor for ChargePoint. Although the company reported 93% revenue growth last quarter, it remains far away from reaching profitability any time soon. Expected to burn through half of its cash position over the next twelve months, CHPT stock may continue to slide lower, as unprofitable growth stocks continue to fall out of favor.Canoo (GOEV)Canoo (NASDAQ:GOEV) shares have taken a 83.5% haircut so far in 2022, but this early-stage maker of electric delivery vehicles has actually made major progress throughout this year. Namely, the company has received some large orders for its vehicles from high-profile customers, including the likes of Walmart (NYSE:WMT).So, why has GOEV stock taken such a big dive since January? Blame it on shareholder dilution. As Louis Navellier discussed back in October, this cash-starved startup needs capital in order to fulfill these orders. The company has continued to raise this cash through the dilutive sale of new shares.Based on its latest Securities and Exchange Commission (or SEC) filings, it’s clear that Canoo continues to lean on this financing source. Future equity raises will limit how much GOEV stock will be ultimately worth on a per-share basis (if it ever becomes profitable). Thus, for long-term investors, this is a dilution story that’s worth avoiding, as a further sharp decline in price may be in store.Hyzon Motors (HYZN)A rich valuation and poor fundamentals aren’t the only reason why Hyzon Motors (NASDAQ:HYZN) is among the top EV stocks to sell. The question of whether things are really on the up-and-up with this company is another big concern as well.This year, HYZN stock was one of several stocks hit by scandal and controversy. Not only did Hyzon find itself the target of an SEC investigation, but the company itself stated that past financial statements “cannot be relied upon.” Additionally, despite releasing new figures, these more recently-released numbers aren’t exactly much to get excited about.In the first quarter of 2022 (the last period in which HYZN has provided quarterly figures), the company reported a $26.8 million operating loss, on just $356,000 in revenue. With the situation possibly getting materially worse since then, going against the grain and buying HYZN stock today appears to be a move that will ultimately end in tears.Lucid Group (LCID)A year ago, Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) appeared poised to eventually grab a large share of the premium EV market. Flash forward to today, and the company’s prospects have diminished considerably. Initially, due to production headwinds, Lucid announced some significantly reduced production targets.More recently, the company slashed its targets due to quarterly results falling short of expectations, and a drop in reservations for its vehicles. Accordingly, while LCID stock has plunged from the $40 level to the single-digits following this year’s developments, an additional pullback may lie ahead.In the coming quarters, if Lucid fails to start meeting/beating expectations, it’ll be difficult for the company to maintain its now-lowered, but still-lofty valuation. The stock continues to trade at a high price-to-sales ratio (nearly 20-times). Although possibly worth another look if the company ends up cratering to penny stock price levels (under $5 per share), for now, I think passing on LCID is the best move.Nio (NIO)Zooming over 30% higher in the past month, many investors may think Nio (NYSE:NIO) has once again become one of the EV stocks to buy. However, I don’t think it’s time to dive in. This China-based electric vehicle maker remains one of the top EV stocks to sell, as this latest rally could soon reverse course.Sure, the big jump in Nio’s stock price over the last month has been driven by promising news. The company reported a record number of vehicle deliveries in November. China also appears keen on easing on its “Zero Covid” policy, which has hit both production and demand for Nio’s vehicles.Even so, as one Seeking Alpha commentator recently argued, this big increase in November may be due to China’s EV tax incentives expiring this year. If this proves true, and sales growth sputters again starting in 2023, shares could return to sub-$10 per share prices.QuantumScape (QS)After its SPAC merger in late-2020, EV battery technology startup Quantumscape (NYSE:QS) skyrocketed to prices well over $100 per share. Presently, investors can buy this same stock at around $7 per share.That said, those who think this means QS stock is now in oversold territory should think otherwise. Shares in this company, which is at work developing lithium solid state batteries (or SSBs) for electric vehicles, may keep dropping, as time is not on its side.At least, that’s the view of Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas. In November, the analyst downgraded shares from “hold” to “sell,” and lowered his price target from $12 to $4 per share. This downgrade appears to be mostly due to the fact that QuantumScape’s timeline to commercialization is far too long. Years away from reaching its next commercialization hurdle, rising interest rates and high operating losses are likely to apply more pressure to the stock.Tesla (TSLA)Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is still not only the most valuable EV stock by market cap, but also the most valuable automaker by market cap (for now). However, TSLA has fallen more than 50% from its all-time high, and could be at risk of falling further.Globally, competition in the EV sector is heating up. Incumbent automakers and “Tesla killers” alike in the U.S. are moving quickly to grab their piece of the electric vehicle market. Tesla could also be facing big issues in China, where it is rumored to be pulling back on production.Worse yet, with CEO Elon Musk preoccupied with his latest personal acquisition (Twitter), these factors could have even more of a negative impact than they would if Musk were fully focused on keeping this EV powerhouse at the top of the heap. Investors may want to follow the hedge fund community’s lead, and put TSLA stock in the EV stocks to sell bucket.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371091400736984,"gmtCreate":1731616657868,"gmtModify":1731919239086,"author":{"id":"4110814681747552","authorId":"4110814681747552","name":"Yap68","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110814681747552","authorIdStr":"4110814681747552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup, shift to higher gear of falling. October delivery without the cheap version, NIO brand itself is just about 15k, anyway, the boss is a piece of shit, just spending money like his father money, without considering the company profitability&nbsp;","listText":"Yup, shift to higher gear of falling. October delivery without the cheap version, NIO brand itself is just about 15k, anyway, the boss is a piece of shit, just spending money like his father money, without considering the company profitability&nbsp;","text":"Yup, shift to higher gear of falling. October delivery without the cheap version, NIO brand itself is just about 15k, anyway, the boss is a piece of shit, just spending money like his father money, without considering the company profitability","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371091400736984","repostId":"2482908630","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2482908630","pubTimestamp":1731481232,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2482908630?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-13 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Nio About to Shift Into a Higher Gear?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2482908630","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Nio has shed almost half its value in 2024, but it's gaining momentum to shift into a higher gear in 2025.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nio has recorded six straight months of 20,000-plus vehicle deliveries.</p></li><li><p>The Chinese EV maker is now officially delivering Onvo L60 vehicles.</p></li><li><p>Nio will launch another sub-brand later in 2024 -- a likely boost to sales.</p></li></ul><p>Investing in Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a> is an intriguing option. Heavy government subsidies have led to rapid advancement in battery technology and bringing down costs, which makes for an incredibly competitive EV market in China. In fact, China&#39;s market is so far ahead of the U.S. that over half its new vehicle sales were EVs in July.</p><p>The good news for Nio investors is that the company has momentum and could be about to shift into a higher gear. Let&#39;s see what&#39;s ahead.</p><h2 id=\"id_773572304\">Delivery momentum</h2><p>Nio has quietly put together a few months of strong delivery numbers. In fact, for six straight months, Nio has delivered over 20,000 vehicles. Nio delivered 20,976 vehicles in October, which was a 30.5% gain from the prior year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2aa7d8e419c8c15f516f3d42e79cc8cd\" alt=\"Data source: Nio production and delivery releases. Chart by author.\" title=\"Data source: Nio production and delivery releases. Chart by author.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"544\"/><span>Data source: Nio production and delivery releases. Chart by author.</span></p><p>But the biggest takeaway from the October results was early Onvo deliveries. The Nio brand sold 16,657 vehicles in October, while its &#34;family oriented smart vehicle brand,&#34; Onvo, delivered 4,319 in its first full month of sales. After launching the mid-size Onvo L60 in September, management noted that production and deliveries would steadily ramp up.</p><p>At the end of October, Nio had 166 Onvo centers and spaces across 60 cities with plans to expand its network to drive growth. Nio&#39;s Onvo L60 is a good bet for that growth and could shift the company into higher gear. The new electric SUV starts at roughly $21,200 and is aimed directly at competing with rival Tesla&#39;s Model Y.</p><h2 id=\"id_4088032995\">Next step</h2><p>Not only will the Onvo L60 help shift Nio&#39;s deliveries into higher gear, it&#39;s just a stepping stone to what could be an even bigger hit among consumers. Nio CEO William Li commented: &#34;If you think the L60 is good, then this new model is a much more competitive product.&#34; Currently, the plans are for Onvo to launch a new EV every year, with the new mid- to large-size electric SUV due next year.</p><p>Nio isn&#39;t stopping with Onvo. It has plans to launch another, more affordable, sub-brand named &#34;Firefly&#34; late in 2024. In a Chinese market where EVs represented over 50% of new vehicle sales in July -- and which is craving affordable EVs -- Nio&#39;s launch of Onvo and Firefly should really kick the company&#39;s deliveries into a higher gear. We&#39;re seeing evidence of that as recently as October production and delivery figures.</p><p>The good news is that Nio recently announced a cash injection from a group of investors putting up roughly $1.9 billion to help fund its expansion and growth. The collection of strategic investors will invest roughly $471 million in Nio China, while Nio the parent company has agreed to pour in roughly $1.43 billion in cash to subscribe to the newly issued Nio China shares.</p><p>While Nio has shed roughly 44% of its value in 2024 alone, the company is setting itself up for a much stronger 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Nio About to Shift Into a Higher Gear?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Nio About to Shift Into a Higher Gear?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-13 15:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/12/is-nio-about-to-shift-into-a-higher-gear/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio has recorded six straight months of 20,000-plus vehicle deliveries.The Chinese EV maker is now officially delivering Onvo L60 vehicles.Nio will launch another sub-brand later in 2024 -- a likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/12/is-nio-about-to-shift-into-a-higher-gear/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/12/is-nio-about-to-shift-into-a-higher-gear/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2482908630","content_text":"Nio has recorded six straight months of 20,000-plus vehicle deliveries.The Chinese EV maker is now officially delivering Onvo L60 vehicles.Nio will launch another sub-brand later in 2024 -- a likely boost to sales.Investing in Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers such as Nio is an intriguing option. Heavy government subsidies have led to rapid advancement in battery technology and bringing down costs, which makes for an incredibly competitive EV market in China. In fact, China's market is so far ahead of the U.S. that over half its new vehicle sales were EVs in July.The good news for Nio investors is that the company has momentum and could be about to shift into a higher gear. Let's see what's ahead.Delivery momentumNio has quietly put together a few months of strong delivery numbers. In fact, for six straight months, Nio has delivered over 20,000 vehicles. Nio delivered 20,976 vehicles in October, which was a 30.5% gain from the prior year.Data source: Nio production and delivery releases. Chart by author.But the biggest takeaway from the October results was early Onvo deliveries. The Nio brand sold 16,657 vehicles in October, while its \"family oriented smart vehicle brand,\" Onvo, delivered 4,319 in its first full month of sales. After launching the mid-size Onvo L60 in September, management noted that production and deliveries would steadily ramp up.At the end of October, Nio had 166 Onvo centers and spaces across 60 cities with plans to expand its network to drive growth. Nio's Onvo L60 is a good bet for that growth and could shift the company into higher gear. The new electric SUV starts at roughly $21,200 and is aimed directly at competing with rival Tesla's Model Y.Next stepNot only will the Onvo L60 help shift Nio's deliveries into higher gear, it's just a stepping stone to what could be an even bigger hit among consumers. Nio CEO William Li commented: \"If you think the L60 is good, then this new model is a much more competitive product.\" Currently, the plans are for Onvo to launch a new EV every year, with the new mid- to large-size electric SUV due next year.Nio isn't stopping with Onvo. It has plans to launch another, more affordable, sub-brand named \"Firefly\" late in 2024. In a Chinese market where EVs represented over 50% of new vehicle sales in July -- and which is craving affordable EVs -- Nio's launch of Onvo and Firefly should really kick the company's deliveries into a higher gear. We're seeing evidence of that as recently as October production and delivery figures.The good news is that Nio recently announced a cash injection from a group of investors putting up roughly $1.9 billion to help fund its expansion and growth. The collection of strategic investors will invest roughly $471 million in Nio China, while Nio the parent company has agreed to pour in roughly $1.43 billion in cash to subscribe to the newly issued Nio China shares.While Nio has shed roughly 44% of its value in 2024 alone, the company is setting itself up for a much stronger 2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349090287567000,"gmtCreate":1726257288865,"gmtModify":1726265720346,"author":{"id":"4110814681747552","authorId":"4110814681747552","name":"Yap68","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110814681747552","authorIdStr":"4110814681747552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I believe you have shorted a lot","listText":"I believe you have shorted a lot","text":"I believe you have shorted a lot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349090287567000","repostId":"2467770782","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2467770782","pubTimestamp":1726242986,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2467770782?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 23:56","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"NIO: The ONVO Gamble Could Worsen Liquidity Crunch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467770782","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is in a liquidity crunch with current liabilities higher than its cash balance, which could see it resort to a dilutive capital raise in the next 2 quarters.NIO’s 3-brand strategy could help boost","content":"<html><body><ul><li>NIO is in a liquidity crunch with current liabilities higher than its cash balance, which could see it resort to a dilutive capital raise in the next 2 quarters.</li><li>NIO’s 3-brand strategy could help boost delivery volumes, but could lead to margin contraction.</li><li>I expect NIO’s losses to increase as it increases its marketing spend to drive demand for the ONVO L60, set to launch on September 19.</li><li>The opening of a third factory in Q3 2025 could have a negative impact on vehicle margins and operating costs.</li><li>My price target for NIO is $2.93, representing 45% downside from its current valuation.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>tang90246</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Last February, I was bearish on NIO Inc. (<span>NYSE:NIO</span>) due to its market share loss in China, its main market, its investments in the loss making battery swapping business, and lackluster expansion in the European market. Following my coverage, NIO reached<span> a 52-week low of $3.61, before surging recently on the back of its </span>Q2 earnings<span> that were highlighted by improving margins and better cost management. Despite this, I expect the company’s losses to increase in the coming quarters due to the upcoming </span>launch<span> of the ONVO sub-brand’s L60 model, that targets China’s mass market, on September 19.</span></p> <p>While this endeavor could help boost delivery volumes, it would come at the expense of higher marketing costs, margin contraction, and possibly cannibalizing ES6 sales, NIO’s best selling model, in my opinion. Moreover, I expect NIO to raise capital in the near future to deal with its<span> current liabilities, which are significantly higher than its current cash balance. For these reasons, I’m reiterating my sell rating with a price target of $2.93 per share, implying 45% downside from current levels.</span></p> <h2>Q2 Overview</h2> <p>In Q2, NIO reported YoY revenue growth of 99% to $2.4 billion driven by an 118% increase in vehicle sales, and QoQ growth of 76%, also driven by an 87% increase in vehicle sales. During the quarter, NIO generated $2.2 billion from vehicle sales as it delivered a record 57,373 vehicles compared to 30,053 in Q1 2024 and 23,520 in Q2 2023.</p> <p>In terms of margins, NIO reported a vehicle margin of 12.2% in Q2 compared to 9.2% in Q1 and 6.2% a year ago, due to lower material costs and realizing the benefits of economies of scale during the quarter. As a result, total gross margin in Q2 was 9.7% compared to 4.9% and 1% in the prior quarter and year, respectively.</p> <p>Looking at NIO’s cost structure, R&amp;D costs declined 3.8% YoY to $442.9 million, however, that represented an 11.6% QoQ increase from $396.7 million. Meanwhile, SG&amp;A costs increased 31.5% YoY and 25.4% QoQ to $517 million due to higher personnel costs and sales and marketing activities. Despite this, R&amp;D costs represented 18.4% of total revenue compared to 38.1% a year ago and 28.9% in Q1. Similarly, SG&amp;A costs represented 21.5% of total revenue compared to 32.6% and 30.2% in the prior year and quarter, respectively.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"108\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/9/12/59696711-1726190624855486.png\" width=\"640\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Q2 Earnings Release</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Accordingly, NIO reported an operating margin of -29.9% in Q2, a significant improvement from -69.2% a year ago and -54.4% in Q1.</p> <p>For Q3, NIO expects deliveries to be between 61-63 thousand and revenues between $2.63-$2.7 billion, representing YoY growth between 0.2-3.2%.</p> <h2>Liquidity Concerns</h2> <p>At the end of Q2, NIO had $5.7 billion in cash, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term time deposits, compared to $6.3 billion at the end of Q1 and $8.1 billion at the end of Q4 2023, meaning that NIO’s cash burn during the quarter was around $600 million. At this rate, NIO should have enough cash to last 9 quarters. However, it should be noted that the company has more than $6.9 billion in current liabilities which must be paid within 1 year. In comparison, the company has short-term liquidity of only $5.5 billion and total liquidity of $6.25 billion.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>Cash</p></td> <td><p>$3,392,295,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Restricted Cash</p></td> <td><p>$507,663,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>ST Investments</p></td> <td><p>$1,598,439,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>ST Liquidity</p></td> <td><p>$5,498,397,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>LT Restricted Cash</p></td> <td><p>$13,777,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>LT Investments</p></td> <td><p>$739,756,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>LT Liquidity</p></td> <td><p>$753,533,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Total Liquidity</p></td> <td><p>$6,251,930,000</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>Based on NIO’s available short-term liquidity, it has a $1.4 billion liquidity gap to fulfill its current liabilities. As such, I expect NIO to raise capital either in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025, which would be extremely dilutive to its shareholders. At the current share price of $5.28, raising $1.4 billion would entail the issuance of more than 265.7 million shares, which would increase its outstanding shares by 13%.</p> <p>That said, NIO is set to launch the first model under its new sub-brand, ONVO, later this month and intends to launch another sub-brand, Firefly, next year, which could see NIO’s sales and marketing spend increase in the coming quarters, as I will discuss later in the article. As such, I believe NIO needs a cash injection of at least $3 billion in order to pay its current liabilities and continue funding its operations. This would result in NIO’s outstanding shares increasing by 28% at the current share price.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>OS</p></td> <td><p>2,049,836,045</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Share Price</p></td> <td><p>$5.28</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Forecasted Capital Raise</p></td> <td><p>$3,000,000,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Potential Dilution</p></td> <td><p>568,181,818</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Dilution %</p></td> <td><p>28%</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>In my opinion, NIO is likely to receive these funds from Abu Dhabi-based CYVN Holdings, which already owns a 20.1% stake in the company following its nearly $3 billion investments in NIO last year. I believe that could be the case due to CYVN’s interest in maintaining its ownership position in the company since such a capital raise would significantly dilute its stake. As is, CYVN is entitled to nominate 2 directors to the company’s board as long as it owns more than 15% of NIO’s outstanding shares.</p> <h2>The ONVO Drag</h2> <p>Since its inception, NIO has been mainly focused on offering premium EVs with a starting price of more than RMB 300 thousand. However, the company is now attempting to penetrate the Chinese mass market with 2 new sub-brands.</p> <p>The first sub-brand, ONVO, is set to launch its first model the L60 on September 19, and the company plans to release a new model every year. At the same time, NIO plans to start deliveries of its second new sub-brand with the codename Firefly, in 2025.</p> <p>According to NIO’s strategy, models under the ONVO sub-brand will have an ASP ranging between RMB 200-300 thousand. Meanwhile, models under the Firefly sub-brand will have an ASP ranging between RMB 100-200 thousand. In this way, NIO would be able to offer EVs ranging from RMB 100-800 thousand across its 3 brands.</p> <p>Although this endeavor could boost NIO’s deliveries, I believe it will be a headwind to the company’s margins and bottom line. In the Q2 earnings call, management shared that ONVO deliveries will be minimal in Q3 and will ramp up to reach near 10 thousand per month in December and 20 thousand per month sometime in 2025.</p> <p>Meanwhile, CEO William Li previously shared that ONVO will start contributing positively to NIO’s “P&amp;L” when it reaches a sales volume of 20 thousand units per month. Accordingly, I expect NIO’s vehicle margin to contract significantly starting Q4 until ONVO reaches the targeted sales volume, as until then, it’s likely that NIO will realize a negative margin on ONVO sales. Even then, I don’t expect NIO’s vehicle margin to improve until the NIO brand reaches a sales volume of 40 thousand per month, due to the lower margins of the ONVO sub-brand since its ASP is much lower than the ASP of the NIO brand.</p> <p>As is, management shared their long-term margin targets for each brand, with 25% for the NIO brand from 40 thousand deliveries per month, and 15% for the ONVO brand without stating the sales volume required to reach this target. Moreover, NIO’s vehicle margin could further contract when it launches the first model under the Firefly sub-brand which will have an ASP between RMB 100-200 thousand.</p> <p>Given that management is forecasting ONVO’s long-term margins at 15%, Firefly is very likely to have an even lower margin, which I estimate to be around 10% in the best case. When combining these factors with NIO’s service segment, which is yet to post a positive gross margin, I don’t see a scenario where NIO’s overall gross margins significantly improve than the 9.7% reported in Q2.</p> <p>Another reason why I expect NIO’s margins to contract is ONVO’s L60 potential to cannibalize sales of NIO’s best-selling model, ES6, due to the similarities between both vehicles. At the end of July, NIO’s cumulative deliveries were 557,518, including 219,422 for the ES6 alone, meaning that the ES6 is responsible for 39.4% of NIO’s total deliveries since its inception.</p> <p>Looking at both vehicles’ specs, the entry level ES6 boasts a CLTC range of 450-500 KM with dimensions of 4,854 mm*1,995 mm*1,703 mm, and a trunk size of 579 L. In comparison, the ONVO L60 will come in 3 range variants:</p> <ul> <li><p>Standard range with 555 KM.</p></li> <li><p>Long range with 730 KM.</p></li> <li><p>Extra Long Range with 1000+ KM.</p></li> </ul> <p>The ONVO L60 also has dimensions of 4828 mm*1930 mm*1616 mm, which is somewhat similar to the ES6. The only major differences between both vehicles are technology, trunk size, since the ONVO L60 doesn’t have a trunk, and price. While the entry level ES6 has an ASP of RMB 338 thousand, the ONVO L60 will have an ASP of RMB 219.9 thousand, 35% cheaper than the ES6.</p> <p>I believe the significant price difference and the minimal difference in value proposition between both models could be a factor contributing to ONVO L60 cannibalizing ES6 sales in China due to the nature of the Chinese consumer. It is well known that Chinese consumers are value oriented, meaning that they are more concerned with getting the best value for their money. This view is supported by insights from Premia Partners, which shows that frugality has become a trend among young Chinese consumers, the main driving force of China’s consumer market.</p> <p>In that case, NIO’s vehicle margins could deteriorate significantly as this scenario would see the company’s revenue per vehicle decline due to the significant price difference between the L60 and the ES6. This would be concerning for NIO, in my opinion, since its revenue per vehicle has been constantly falling as it stood at RMB 273.3 thousand in Q2 compared to RMB 305.5 thousand in the prior year and RMB 278.9 thousand in Q1.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>Period</p></td> <td><p>Q2 24</p></td> <td><p>Q1 24</p></td> <td><p>Q2 23</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Deliveries</p></td> <td><p>57,373</p></td> <td><p>30,053</p></td> <td><p>23,520</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Vehicle Rev</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥15,679,623,000</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥8,381,318,000</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥7,185,214,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Rev/Del</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥273,293</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥278,885</p></td> <td><p>RMB¥305,494</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>In addition to potential margin contraction, NIO could see its operating costs, mainly SG&amp;A, due to potentially higher marketing costs to stimulate demand for the ONVO sub-brand. In Q2, NIO’s delivery growth of 144% and 91% YoY and QoQ, respectively, was mainly driven by higher marketing spend of 31.5% and 25.4% YoY and QoQ, respectively. The company cited in the Q2 earnings call that the QoQ increase in SG&amp;A was a direct result of higher marketing spend following the launch of the new ES6 model and other products in March and April.</p> <p>With the company now launching a new sub-brand, I expect its marketing spend to grow at a higher rate as the ONVO brand isn’t as recognizable as the NIO brand. Therefore, the company would have to increase its marketing spend to build awareness of the ONVO brand, establish a brand identity, and attract customers. The same will also apply when NIO launches its second sub-brand, Firefly, next year, which means that it might be on track to incur high SG&amp;A costs over the coming 6 quarters at least.</p> <p>NIO’s SG&amp;A costs will also be impacted by the upgrade of its F2 factory to double shifts to support the production of L60, with the upgrade expected to be completed later this month or early October, per management in the Q2 earnings call. The company also expects to start production in its third factory by Q3 2025, which will impact both vehicle margins and SG&amp;A costs.</p> <p>In terms of margins, producing vehicles in 3 factories would increase NIO’s fixed costs such as utilities and maintenance, which will be a drag on margins until NIO is able to operate at full capacity. In terms of operating costs, producing vehicles in 3 factories will certainly lead to more costs related to hiring additional labor, managers, engineers, and technicians.</p> <p>When combining these factors with NIO’s margins potentially contracting due to the new sub-brands, the company could realize more losses until it is able to produce and sell vehicles at an optimum level which may take years to materialize. Considering the company’s liquidity position, NIO might have to resort to additional dilutive capital raises in the future to fund its operations, especially since it appears to be far from generating any profits or cash flow.</p> <h2>Valuation</h2> <p>With $4.99 billion in cash and $4.56 billion in debt, NIO has an EV of nearly $10.4 billion at its current share price of $5.28. Given that the consensus revenue estimate for the company in FY 2024 is $9.82 billion, the stock would be trading at an EV/sales multiple of 1.06.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>OS</p></td> <td><p>2,049,836,045</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Share Price</p></td> <td><p>$5.28</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Market Cap</p></td> <td><p>$10,823,134,317.60</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Cash</p></td> <td><p>$4,990,734,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Debt</p></td> <td><p>$4,558,006,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>EV</p></td> <td><p>$10,390,406,318</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Revenue Estimates</p></td> <td><p>$9,820,000,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>EV/Sales</p></td> <td><p>1.06</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>In comparison, Chinese EV makers Li Auto (LI), BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), and Zeekr (ZK) are trading at the following EV/sales multiples.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr> <td><p>Company</p></td> <td><p>EV/Sales</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>LI</p></td> <td><p>0.41</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>BYDDF</p></td> <td><p>0.94</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>ZK</p></td> <td><p>0.35</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Average</p></td> <td><p>0.57</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>By using the average EV/sales multiple of NIO’s competitors, my price target for the stock is $2.93 per share, implying 45% downside from its current valuation.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup> <col/> <col/> </colgroup> <tr><td colspan=\"2\"><p>NIO Price Target</p></td></tr> <tr> <td><p>Projected Sales</p></td> <td><p>$9,820,000,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Target EV/Sales</p></td> <td><p>0.57</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Implied EV</p></td> <td><p>$5,564,666,667</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Net Cash</p></td> <td><p>$432,728,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Equity Value</p></td> <td><p>$5,997,394,667</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>OS</p></td> <td><p>2,049,836,045</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Price Target</p></td> <td><p>$2.93</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Share Price</p></td> <td><p>$5.28</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>Downside</p></td> <td><p>-45%</p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <h2>Technical Analysis</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/9/12/saupload_a6f9e19fd87feae9623e1d7683f26466_thumb1.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>TrendSpider</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Looking at NIO’s daily chart, the stock has been in a downtrend since August 2023 and started forming a descending triangle pattern last April. Following the company’s Q2 earnings results, NIO broke out of the downtrend, the descending triangle pattern, and the upper Bollinger band, a sign of high volatility. That said, the stock has failed to break through a key resistance level, the 200 EMA, with the RSI regulating, which can be a sign of the stock losing momentum.</p> <p>Therefore, I recommend waiting for a break of the 9 EMA support level for investors looking to enter a short position as breaking this support level could see the stock test the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level near $4.4 and potentially the $3.66 support in the near-term.</p> <h2>Upside Risks</h2> <p>Risks to my thesis include NIO receiving non-dilutive funding to deal with its current liabilities either through debt financing or receiving a bailout from the Chinese government similar to the $1.4 billion injection it received from the municipal government of Hefei in 2020. Another risk to consider is NIO perfecting its 3-brand strategy by gaining significant market share in China’s mass market through ONVO and Firefly. In that case, NIO could grow its topline rapidly and expand its vehicle margins which would help offset the expected increase in operating costs, possibly leading to improved bottom line performance.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>While NIO’s Q2 earnings showed signs of disciplined cost management, I remain bearish on the stock due to the company’s liquidity concerns, as well as potential vehicle margin contraction and higher losses. The company’s cash balance is insufficient to pay off its current liabilities, and with the launch of the ONVO L60 on September 19, NIO is very likely to increase its marketing spend in the coming quarters to drive demand for the new sub-brand.</p> <p>Moreover, the L60 might have negative margins until it reaches a sales volume of 20 thousand per month, the target set for the new sub-brand to start contributing positively to “P&amp;L”, per CEO William Li. The L60 could also cannibalize sales of NIO’s best-selling model, ES6, due to the similarities between the 2 models, especially as the L60 is 35% cheaper than the ES6, which would negatively impact NIO’s margins. In light of these factors, I’m reiterating my sell rating for NIO with a price target of $2.93, representing 45% downside from current levels.</p> <div></div> <p>Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The ONVO Gamble Could Worsen Liquidity Crunch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The ONVO Gamble Could Worsen Liquidity Crunch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 23:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720998-nio-stock-onvo-gamble-could-worsen-liquidity-crunch><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NIO is in a liquidity crunch with current liabilities higher than its cash balance, which could see it resort to a dilutive capital raise in the next 2 quarters.NIO’s 3-brand strategy could help boost...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720998-nio-stock-onvo-gamble-could-worsen-liquidity-crunch\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2162241639/image_2162241639.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4588":"碎股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","NIO.SI":"蔚来","ONVO":"Organovo Holdings Inc.","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4563":"昨日强势股","NIO":"蔚来","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BYDDF":"BYD Co., Ltd.","BK6125":"汽车制造商","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4531":"中概回港概念","ZK":"极氪","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4555":"新能源车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720998-nio-stock-onvo-gamble-could-worsen-liquidity-crunch","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2467770782","content_text":"NIO is in a liquidity crunch with current liabilities higher than its cash balance, which could see it resort to a dilutive capital raise in the next 2 quarters.NIO’s 3-brand strategy could help boost delivery volumes, but could lead to margin contraction.I expect NIO’s losses to increase as it increases its marketing spend to drive demand for the ONVO L60, set to launch on September 19.The opening of a third factory in Q3 2025 could have a negative impact on vehicle margins and operating costs.My price target for NIO is $2.93, representing 45% downside from its current valuation.   tang90246 Last February, I was bearish on NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) due to its market share loss in China, its main market, its investments in the loss making battery swapping business, and lackluster expansion in the European market. Following my coverage, NIO reached a 52-week low of $3.61, before surging recently on the back of its Q2 earnings that were highlighted by improving margins and better cost management. Despite this, I expect the company’s losses to increase in the coming quarters due to the upcoming launch of the ONVO sub-brand’s L60 model, that targets China’s mass market, on September 19. While this endeavor could help boost delivery volumes, it would come at the expense of higher marketing costs, margin contraction, and possibly cannibalizing ES6 sales, NIO’s best selling model, in my opinion. Moreover, I expect NIO to raise capital in the near future to deal with its current liabilities, which are significantly higher than its current cash balance. For these reasons, I’m reiterating my sell rating with a price target of $2.93 per share, implying 45% downside from current levels. Q2 Overview In Q2, NIO reported YoY revenue growth of 99% to $2.4 billion driven by an 118% increase in vehicle sales, and QoQ growth of 76%, also driven by an 87% increase in vehicle sales. During the quarter, NIO generated $2.2 billion from vehicle sales as it delivered a record 57,373 vehicles compared to 30,053 in Q1 2024 and 23,520 in Q2 2023. In terms of margins, NIO reported a vehicle margin of 12.2% in Q2 compared to 9.2% in Q1 and 6.2% a year ago, due to lower material costs and realizing the benefits of economies of scale during the quarter. As a result, total gross margin in Q2 was 9.7% compared to 4.9% and 1% in the prior quarter and year, respectively. Looking at NIO’s cost structure, R&D costs declined 3.8% YoY to $442.9 million, however, that represented an 11.6% QoQ increase from $396.7 million. Meanwhile, SG&A costs increased 31.5% YoY and 25.4% QoQ to $517 million due to higher personnel costs and sales and marketing activities. Despite this, R&D costs represented 18.4% of total revenue compared to 38.1% a year ago and 28.9% in Q1. Similarly, SG&A costs represented 21.5% of total revenue compared to 32.6% and 30.2% in the prior year and quarter, respectively.   Q2 Earnings Release Accordingly, NIO reported an operating margin of -29.9% in Q2, a significant improvement from -69.2% a year ago and -54.4% in Q1. For Q3, NIO expects deliveries to be between 61-63 thousand and revenues between $2.63-$2.7 billion, representing YoY growth between 0.2-3.2%. Liquidity Concerns At the end of Q2, NIO had $5.7 billion in cash, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term time deposits, compared to $6.3 billion at the end of Q1 and $8.1 billion at the end of Q4 2023, meaning that NIO’s cash burn during the quarter was around $600 million. At this rate, NIO should have enough cash to last 9 quarters. However, it should be noted that the company has more than $6.9 billion in current liabilities which must be paid within 1 year. In comparison, the company has short-term liquidity of only $5.5 billion and total liquidity of $6.25 billion.       Cash $3,392,295,000   Restricted Cash $507,663,000   ST Investments $1,598,439,000   ST Liquidity $5,498,397,000   LT Restricted Cash $13,777,000   LT Investments $739,756,000   LT Liquidity $753,533,000   Total Liquidity $6,251,930,000   Click to enlarge Based on NIO’s available short-term liquidity, it has a $1.4 billion liquidity gap to fulfill its current liabilities. As such, I expect NIO to raise capital either in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025, which would be extremely dilutive to its shareholders. At the current share price of $5.28, raising $1.4 billion would entail the issuance of more than 265.7 million shares, which would increase its outstanding shares by 13%. That said, NIO is set to launch the first model under its new sub-brand, ONVO, later this month and intends to launch another sub-brand, Firefly, next year, which could see NIO’s sales and marketing spend increase in the coming quarters, as I will discuss later in the article. As such, I believe NIO needs a cash injection of at least $3 billion in order to pay its current liabilities and continue funding its operations. This would result in NIO’s outstanding shares increasing by 28% at the current share price.       OS 2,049,836,045   Share Price $5.28   Forecasted Capital Raise $3,000,000,000   Potential Dilution 568,181,818   Dilution % 28%   Click to enlarge In my opinion, NIO is likely to receive these funds from Abu Dhabi-based CYVN Holdings, which already owns a 20.1% stake in the company following its nearly $3 billion investments in NIO last year. I believe that could be the case due to CYVN’s interest in maintaining its ownership position in the company since such a capital raise would significantly dilute its stake. As is, CYVN is entitled to nominate 2 directors to the company’s board as long as it owns more than 15% of NIO’s outstanding shares. The ONVO Drag Since its inception, NIO has been mainly focused on offering premium EVs with a starting price of more than RMB 300 thousand. However, the company is now attempting to penetrate the Chinese mass market with 2 new sub-brands. The first sub-brand, ONVO, is set to launch its first model the L60 on September 19, and the company plans to release a new model every year. At the same time, NIO plans to start deliveries of its second new sub-brand with the codename Firefly, in 2025. According to NIO’s strategy, models under the ONVO sub-brand will have an ASP ranging between RMB 200-300 thousand. Meanwhile, models under the Firefly sub-brand will have an ASP ranging between RMB 100-200 thousand. In this way, NIO would be able to offer EVs ranging from RMB 100-800 thousand across its 3 brands. Although this endeavor could boost NIO’s deliveries, I believe it will be a headwind to the company’s margins and bottom line. In the Q2 earnings call, management shared that ONVO deliveries will be minimal in Q3 and will ramp up to reach near 10 thousand per month in December and 20 thousand per month sometime in 2025. Meanwhile, CEO William Li previously shared that ONVO will start contributing positively to NIO’s “P&L” when it reaches a sales volume of 20 thousand units per month. Accordingly, I expect NIO’s vehicle margin to contract significantly starting Q4 until ONVO reaches the targeted sales volume, as until then, it’s likely that NIO will realize a negative margin on ONVO sales. Even then, I don’t expect NIO’s vehicle margin to improve until the NIO brand reaches a sales volume of 40 thousand per month, due to the lower margins of the ONVO sub-brand since its ASP is much lower than the ASP of the NIO brand. As is, management shared their long-term margin targets for each brand, with 25% for the NIO brand from 40 thousand deliveries per month, and 15% for the ONVO brand without stating the sales volume required to reach this target. Moreover, NIO’s vehicle margin could further contract when it launches the first model under the Firefly sub-brand which will have an ASP between RMB 100-200 thousand. Given that management is forecasting ONVO’s long-term margins at 15%, Firefly is very likely to have an even lower margin, which I estimate to be around 10% in the best case. When combining these factors with NIO’s service segment, which is yet to post a positive gross margin, I don’t see a scenario where NIO’s overall gross margins significantly improve than the 9.7% reported in Q2. Another reason why I expect NIO’s margins to contract is ONVO’s L60 potential to cannibalize sales of NIO’s best-selling model, ES6, due to the similarities between both vehicles. At the end of July, NIO’s cumulative deliveries were 557,518, including 219,422 for the ES6 alone, meaning that the ES6 is responsible for 39.4% of NIO’s total deliveries since its inception. Looking at both vehicles’ specs, the entry level ES6 boasts a CLTC range of 450-500 KM with dimensions of 4,854 mm*1,995 mm*1,703 mm, and a trunk size of 579 L. In comparison, the ONVO L60 will come in 3 range variants:  Standard range with 555 KM. Long range with 730 KM. Extra Long Range with 1000+ KM.  The ONVO L60 also has dimensions of 4828 mm*1930 mm*1616 mm, which is somewhat similar to the ES6. The only major differences between both vehicles are technology, trunk size, since the ONVO L60 doesn’t have a trunk, and price. While the entry level ES6 has an ASP of RMB 338 thousand, the ONVO L60 will have an ASP of RMB 219.9 thousand, 35% cheaper than the ES6. I believe the significant price difference and the minimal difference in value proposition between both models could be a factor contributing to ONVO L60 cannibalizing ES6 sales in China due to the nature of the Chinese consumer. It is well known that Chinese consumers are value oriented, meaning that they are more concerned with getting the best value for their money. This view is supported by insights from Premia Partners, which shows that frugality has become a trend among young Chinese consumers, the main driving force of China’s consumer market. In that case, NIO’s vehicle margins could deteriorate significantly as this scenario would see the company’s revenue per vehicle decline due to the significant price difference between the L60 and the ES6. This would be concerning for NIO, in my opinion, since its revenue per vehicle has been constantly falling as it stood at RMB 273.3 thousand in Q2 compared to RMB 305.5 thousand in the prior year and RMB 278.9 thousand in Q1.         Period Q2 24 Q1 24 Q2 23   Deliveries 57,373 30,053 23,520   Vehicle Rev RMB¥15,679,623,000 RMB¥8,381,318,000 RMB¥7,185,214,000   Rev/Del RMB¥273,293 RMB¥278,885 RMB¥305,494   Click to enlarge In addition to potential margin contraction, NIO could see its operating costs, mainly SG&A, due to potentially higher marketing costs to stimulate demand for the ONVO sub-brand. In Q2, NIO’s delivery growth of 144% and 91% YoY and QoQ, respectively, was mainly driven by higher marketing spend of 31.5% and 25.4% YoY and QoQ, respectively. The company cited in the Q2 earnings call that the QoQ increase in SG&A was a direct result of higher marketing spend following the launch of the new ES6 model and other products in March and April. With the company now launching a new sub-brand, I expect its marketing spend to grow at a higher rate as the ONVO brand isn’t as recognizable as the NIO brand. Therefore, the company would have to increase its marketing spend to build awareness of the ONVO brand, establish a brand identity, and attract customers. The same will also apply when NIO launches its second sub-brand, Firefly, next year, which means that it might be on track to incur high SG&A costs over the coming 6 quarters at least. NIO’s SG&A costs will also be impacted by the upgrade of its F2 factory to double shifts to support the production of L60, with the upgrade expected to be completed later this month or early October, per management in the Q2 earnings call. The company also expects to start production in its third factory by Q3 2025, which will impact both vehicle margins and SG&A costs. In terms of margins, producing vehicles in 3 factories would increase NIO’s fixed costs such as utilities and maintenance, which will be a drag on margins until NIO is able to operate at full capacity. In terms of operating costs, producing vehicles in 3 factories will certainly lead to more costs related to hiring additional labor, managers, engineers, and technicians. When combining these factors with NIO’s margins potentially contracting due to the new sub-brands, the company could realize more losses until it is able to produce and sell vehicles at an optimum level which may take years to materialize. Considering the company’s liquidity position, NIO might have to resort to additional dilutive capital raises in the future to fund its operations, especially since it appears to be far from generating any profits or cash flow. Valuation With $4.99 billion in cash and $4.56 billion in debt, NIO has an EV of nearly $10.4 billion at its current share price of $5.28. Given that the consensus revenue estimate for the company in FY 2024 is $9.82 billion, the stock would be trading at an EV/sales multiple of 1.06.       OS 2,049,836,045   Share Price $5.28   Market Cap $10,823,134,317.60   Cash $4,990,734,000   Debt $4,558,006,000   EV $10,390,406,318   Revenue Estimates $9,820,000,000   EV/Sales 1.06   Click to enlarge In comparison, Chinese EV makers Li Auto (LI), BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), and Zeekr (ZK) are trading at the following EV/sales multiples.       Company EV/Sales   LI 0.41   BYDDF 0.94   ZK 0.35   Average 0.57   Click to enlarge By using the average EV/sales multiple of NIO’s competitors, my price target for the stock is $2.93 per share, implying 45% downside from its current valuation.      NIO Price Target  Projected Sales $9,820,000,000   Target EV/Sales 0.57   Implied EV $5,564,666,667   Net Cash $432,728,000   Equity Value $5,997,394,667   OS 2,049,836,045   Price Target $2.93   Share Price $5.28   Downside -45%   Click to enlarge Technical Analysis   TrendSpider Looking at NIO’s daily chart, the stock has been in a downtrend since August 2023 and started forming a descending triangle pattern last April. Following the company’s Q2 earnings results, NIO broke out of the downtrend, the descending triangle pattern, and the upper Bollinger band, a sign of high volatility. That said, the stock has failed to break through a key resistance level, the 200 EMA, with the RSI regulating, which can be a sign of the stock losing momentum. Therefore, I recommend waiting for a break of the 9 EMA support level for investors looking to enter a short position as breaking this support level could see the stock test the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level near $4.4 and potentially the $3.66 support in the near-term. Upside Risks Risks to my thesis include NIO receiving non-dilutive funding to deal with its current liabilities either through debt financing or receiving a bailout from the Chinese government similar to the $1.4 billion injection it received from the municipal government of Hefei in 2020. Another risk to consider is NIO perfecting its 3-brand strategy by gaining significant market share in China’s mass market through ONVO and Firefly. In that case, NIO could grow its topline rapidly and expand its vehicle margins which would help offset the expected increase in operating costs, possibly leading to improved bottom line performance. Conclusion While NIO’s Q2 earnings showed signs of disciplined cost management, I remain bearish on the stock due to the company’s liquidity concerns, as well as potential vehicle margin contraction and higher losses. The company’s cash balance is insufficient to pay off its current liabilities, and with the launch of the ONVO L60 on September 19, NIO is very likely to increase its marketing spend in the coming quarters to drive demand for the new sub-brand. Moreover, the L60 might have negative margins until it reaches a sales volume of 20 thousand per month, the target set for the new sub-brand to start contributing positively to “P&L”, per CEO William Li. The L60 could also cannibalize sales of NIO’s best-selling model, ES6, due to the similarities between the 2 models, especially as the L60 is 35% cheaper than the ES6, which would negatively impact NIO’s margins. In light of these factors, I’m reiterating my sell rating for NIO with a price target of $2.93, representing 45% downside from current levels.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":624155276,"gmtCreate":1677171210497,"gmtModify":1677173156059,"author":{"id":"4110814681747552","authorId":"4110814681747552","name":"Yap68","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110814681747552","authorIdStr":"4110814681747552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's just a dream","listText":"It's just a dream","text":"It's just a dream","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624155276","repostId":"2313884126","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":624155661,"gmtCreate":1677171113355,"gmtModify":1677173152577,"author":{"id":"4110814681747552","authorId":"4110814681747552","name":"Yap68","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110814681747552","authorIdStr":"4110814681747552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Always dream only","listText":"Always dream only","text":"Always dream only","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624155661","repostId":"1166052690","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166052690","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1677144312,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166052690?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-23 17:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot Chinese ADRs Climbed in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166052690","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot Chinese ADRs climbed in premarket trading. Alibaba, Baidu, Li Auto, Bilibili and iQiyi rose 2%.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hot Chinese ADRs climbed in premarket trading. Alibaba, Baidu, Li Auto, Bilibili and iQiyi rose 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e346cb9e521774cfe510d94e461464c\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"732\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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