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2022-07-03

Agree

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02-08

Though it is good to see Palentir making profits, the $51+ valuation for a projected cash flow of less than $1 billion is too far.

Palantir Stock Continues to Rise Nearly 8% as Jefferies Raises Its Price Target on Palantir

07-04

Analysts who upgrade the stock following the price movement must be of low quality. They should not be respected.

BofA Securities Raises Price Target on Tesla to $260 From $220, Maintains Buy Rating

2023-05-30

Next two weeks of nasdaq may prove AI boom right or wrong.

The AI-Fueled Stock Market Rally Is "Overextended" and Similar to the Dot-Com Era Mania, Veteran Economist David Rosenberg Warns

2023-01-19

Good summary

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06-13

The best broker with most information provider of the market updates including specific stocks. They are timely too!

03-16

Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are also good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.

03-16

Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are good stock market trading strategies too. Good summary.

03-16

Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.

02-13

Wish all the tiger investors a fortunate and healthy 2024. The three words are: Confidence Luck Food

2023-01-19

Is it time to short?

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2022-07-05

Good analysis but it is risk to short as Micron may buyback heavily. It is an huge opportunity for Micron as against their recent buyback purchase at $71. Also buying back and building their inventory looks to be their strategy based on their Q&A in earnings call. So be careful while shorting

Micron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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who upgrade the stock following the price movement must be of low quality. They should not be respected.","listText":"Analysts who upgrade the stock following the price movement must be of low quality. They should not be respected.","text":"Analysts who upgrade the stock following the price movement must be of low quality. They should not be respected.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323678222282816","repostId":"2448718488","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2448718488","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The most recognized names in North America, Europe and Asia rely on MT Newswires to power their applications. Better news, better service, better price.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"MT Newswires Live","id":"1092851196","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e"},"pubTimestamp":1720014311,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2448718488?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-03 21:45","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"BofA Securities Raises Price Target on Tesla to $260 From $220, Maintains Buy Rating","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2448718488","media":"MT Newswires Live","summary":"BofA securities raises price target on Tesla to $260 from $220, maintains buy rating.Tesla shares rose 3.6% in morning trading after soaring 10% on Tuesday.Tesla has an average hold rating and price target range of $85 to $310, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>BofA securities raises price target on Tesla to $260 from $220, maintains buy rating.</p><p>Tesla shares rose over 5% in morning trading after soaring 10% on Tuesday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e240dbe7a76fedcde36b31b4abb24d8\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"853\"/></p><p>Tesla has an average hold rating and price target range of $85 to $310, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BofA Securities Raises Price Target on Tesla to $260 From $220, Maintains Buy Rating</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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They are timely too!","listText":"The best broker with most information provider of the market updates including specific stocks. They are timely too!","text":"The best broker with most information provider of the market updates including specific stocks. They are timely too!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316256171249744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284918429855792,"gmtCreate":1710566337756,"gmtModify":1710567558517,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are also good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","listText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are also good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","text":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are also good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284918429855792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284918201147696,"gmtCreate":1710566295636,"gmtModify":1710567558722,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are good stock market trading strategies too. Good summary.","listText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are good stock market trading strategies too. Good summary.","text":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are good stock market trading strategies too. Good summary.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284918201147696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284918011740384,"gmtCreate":1710566224738,"gmtModify":1710567558702,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","listText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","text":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284918011740384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273579253391624,"gmtCreate":1707829604466,"gmtModify":1707829607180,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wish all the tiger investors a fortunate and healthy 2024. The three words are: Confidence Luck Food","listText":"Wish all the tiger investors a fortunate and healthy 2024. The three words are: Confidence Luck Food","text":"Wish all the tiger investors a fortunate and healthy 2024. The three words are: Confidence Luck Food","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273579253391624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":271647789527264,"gmtCreate":1707358054814,"gmtModify":1707358059742,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Though it is good to see Palentir making profits, the $51+ valuation for a projected cash flow of less than $1 billion is too far.","listText":"Though it is good to see Palentir making profits, the $51+ valuation for a projected cash flow of less than $1 billion is too far.","text":"Though it is good to see Palentir making profits, the $51+ valuation for a projected cash flow of less than $1 billion is too far.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271647789527264","repostId":"1138480991","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979904484,"gmtCreate":1685414318749,"gmtModify":1685414426081,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Next two weeks of nasdaq may prove AI boom right or wrong.","listText":"Next two weeks of nasdaq may prove AI boom right or wrong.","text":"Next two weeks of nasdaq may prove AI boom right or wrong.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979904484","repostId":"2338134438","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956579589,"gmtCreate":1674092634141,"gmtModify":1676538922897,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it time to short?","listText":"Is it time to short?","text":"Is it time to short?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956579589","repostId":"1113221271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113221271","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1674053352,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113221271?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-18 22:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Shares Jumped 4% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113221271","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea shares jumped 4% in morning trading. The stock rallied 25% in a month.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Sea shares jumped 4% in morning trading. The stock rallied 25% in a month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f0aeab4cd1dac14b79eda1bb2d4bf7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Shares Jumped 4% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Shares Jumped 4% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-18 22:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Sea shares jumped 4% in morning trading. The stock rallied 25% in a month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48f0aeab4cd1dac14b79eda1bb2d4bf7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113221271","content_text":"Sea shares jumped 4% in morning trading. The stock rallied 25% in a month.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956579361,"gmtCreate":1674092350653,"gmtModify":1676538922858,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good summary&nbsp;","listText":"Good summary&nbsp;","text":"Good summary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956579361","repostId":"1196914393","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196914393","pubTimestamp":1674090471,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196914393?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-19 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed’s Beige Book Says US Price Growth Seen Moderating in 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196914393","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Employment growing at modest pace, wage pressures elevatedContacts generally expected little growth ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Employment growing at modest pace, wage pressures elevated</li><li>Contacts generally expected little growth in the months ahead</li></ul><p>Growth in US prices is expected to ease in the year ahead, contacts surveyed in the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book said.</p><p>“Selling prices increased at a modest or moderate pace in most districts, though many said that the pace of increases had slowed from that of recent reporting periods,” the Fed said Wednesday in the report, published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. “On balance, contacts across districts said they expected future price growth to moderate further in the year ahead.”</p><p>The report was based on anecdotal information collected by the Fed’s 12 regional banks through Jan. 9 and compiled by the Cleveland Fed.</p><p><b>Rate Pace</b></p><p>Fed officials are mulling a further moderation in the pace of rate hikes following a slowing in US inflation. The central bank has been raising interest rates aggressively to try to cool demand and bring down an inflation rate that has remained near a 40-year high.</p><p>Fed officials lifted rates by a half-point last month to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, slowing the pace of rate increases after four straight 75 basis-point moves. Officials see interest rates rising above 5% this year and staying there until 2024, according to projections released by policymakers last month.</p><p>Consumer prices rose 6.5% in the 12 months through December, marking the weakest inflation rate in more than a year, Labor Department data showed.</p><p><b>Employment Growing</b></p><p>The survey showed that employment continued to grow at a modest-to-moderate pace in most districts.</p><p>“Many firms hesitated to lay off employees even as demand for their goods and services slowed and planned to reduce headcount through attrition if needed,” the survey stated. “With persistently tight labor markets, wage pressures remained elevated across districts, though five Reserve Banks reported that these pressures had eased somewhat.”</p><p>Recent economic data are giving mixed reports on the US economy in the fourth quarter. Retail sales fell in December by the most in a year, suggesting consumers are losing some of the resilience, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday.</p><p>Yet US payrolls rose more than expected with a gain of 223,000 in December, while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%. And gross domestic product may be tracking about 3.5%, according to the Atlanta Fed’s tracker.</p><p><b>‘Little Growth’</b></p><p>“On balance, contacts generally expected little growth in the months ahead,” according to the Beige Book, which noted that overall activity was relatively unchanged since the prior report.</p><p>The New York district reported a decline in economic activity, with the drop being “especially sharp” in manufacturing, the report showed.</p><p>Fed officials have remained unified in their calls for additional rate hikes to fight inflation, even as recent data have shown progress.</p><p>“You just can’t declare victory too soon,” Fed Richmond President Thomas Barkin said Tuesday.</p><p>Fed St. Louis President James Bullard said Wednesday the central bank will want to keep rates higher for longer as insurance against a lingering inflation similar to the 1970s.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed’s Beige Book Says US Price Growth Seen Moderating in 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed’s Beige Book Says US Price Growth Seen Moderating in 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-19 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/fed-s-beige-survey-says-us-price-growth-seen-moderating-in-2023><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Employment growing at modest pace, wage pressures elevatedContacts generally expected little growth in the months aheadGrowth in US prices is expected to ease in the year ahead, contacts surveyed in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/fed-s-beige-survey-says-us-price-growth-seen-moderating-in-2023\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/fed-s-beige-survey-says-us-price-growth-seen-moderating-in-2023","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196914393","content_text":"Employment growing at modest pace, wage pressures elevatedContacts generally expected little growth in the months aheadGrowth in US prices is expected to ease in the year ahead, contacts surveyed in the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book said.“Selling prices increased at a modest or moderate pace in most districts, though many said that the pace of increases had slowed from that of recent reporting periods,” the Fed said Wednesday in the report, published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. “On balance, contacts across districts said they expected future price growth to moderate further in the year ahead.”The report was based on anecdotal information collected by the Fed’s 12 regional banks through Jan. 9 and compiled by the Cleveland Fed.Rate PaceFed officials are mulling a further moderation in the pace of rate hikes following a slowing in US inflation. The central bank has been raising interest rates aggressively to try to cool demand and bring down an inflation rate that has remained near a 40-year high.Fed officials lifted rates by a half-point last month to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, slowing the pace of rate increases after four straight 75 basis-point moves. Officials see interest rates rising above 5% this year and staying there until 2024, according to projections released by policymakers last month.Consumer prices rose 6.5% in the 12 months through December, marking the weakest inflation rate in more than a year, Labor Department data showed.Employment GrowingThe survey showed that employment continued to grow at a modest-to-moderate pace in most districts.“Many firms hesitated to lay off employees even as demand for their goods and services slowed and planned to reduce headcount through attrition if needed,” the survey stated. “With persistently tight labor markets, wage pressures remained elevated across districts, though five Reserve Banks reported that these pressures had eased somewhat.”Recent economic data are giving mixed reports on the US economy in the fourth quarter. Retail sales fell in December by the most in a year, suggesting consumers are losing some of the resilience, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday.Yet US payrolls rose more than expected with a gain of 223,000 in December, while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%. And gross domestic product may be tracking about 3.5%, according to the Atlanta Fed’s tracker.‘Little Growth’“On balance, contacts generally expected little growth in the months ahead,” according to the Beige Book, which noted that overall activity was relatively unchanged since the prior report.The New York district reported a decline in economic activity, with the drop being “especially sharp” in manufacturing, the report showed.Fed officials have remained unified in their calls for additional rate hikes to fight inflation, even as recent data have shown progress.“You just can’t declare victory too soon,” Fed Richmond President Thomas Barkin said Tuesday.Fed St. Louis President James Bullard said Wednesday the central bank will want to keep rates higher for longer as insurance against a lingering inflation similar to the 1970s.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047749569,"gmtCreate":1656979988251,"gmtModify":1676535925334,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good analysis but it is risk to short as Micron may buyback heavily. It&nbsp;is an huge opportunity for Micron&nbsp;as against their recent buyback&nbsp;purchase&nbsp;at $71. Also buying back and building their inventory looks to be their strategy based on their Q&amp;A in earnings call. So be careful while shorting","listText":"Good analysis but it is risk to short as Micron may buyback heavily. It&nbsp;is an huge opportunity for Micron&nbsp;as against their recent buyback&nbsp;purchase&nbsp;at $71. Also buying back and building their inventory looks to be their strategy based on their Q&amp;A in earnings call. So be careful while shorting","text":"Good analysis but it is risk to short as Micron may buyback heavily. It is an huge opportunity for Micron as against their recent buyback purchase at $71. Also buying back and building their inventory looks to be their strategy based on their Q&A in earnings call. So be careful while shorting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047749569","repostId":"2248313616","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2248313616","pubTimestamp":1656933657,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2248313616?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 19:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248313616","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Micron's business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely contin","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Micron&#39;s business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely continue to decline</h2><p>Micron is a great company. It is very competitive with the other semiconductor memory suppliers of the world. Its balance sheet is strong and it generates significant free cash flow. It has been reducing its cost structure, making it more profitable through a cycle. Micron and its peers have been more rational in their capex investment. I look forward to buying MU shares someday, but today I am short into this down cycle.</p><p>It is my opinion that despite the high-tech nature of the manufacturing process, memory is a commodity, and the business is cyclical. Profitability is driven by supply demand balance. As a result, Micron trades like a cyclical commodity stock with low PE ratios. Hence, in order to profit from trading in MU stock, one must trade it like a cyclical commodity business, selling close to the top and buying close to the bottom.</p><p>I have found that MU’s GM is the best indicator to foretell the top and the bottom of the cycle. A chart of MU’s historical GM and share price is shown in Figure 1. The last GM data point is management’s guidance for F4Q, which is 41.5% at the mid-point.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31d31b58e613efc395988429bbdae45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Figure 1: Micron’s historical GM and price. Note: the price in Figure 1 is the closing price the day after earnings print. (Company releases and SA data base)</p><p>Figure 1 shows that historically, MU’s price peaked and then declined after the GM rolled over and declined and bottomed and then increased after the GM bottomed out and increased. However, in the current cycle, the GM has plateaued for four quarters and investors have been selling ahead of the GM decline likely because of the weakening macro outlook. In retrospect, the plateauing of the GM was likely an indication that despite continuous cost reduction, MU is losing pricing power and has to pass along most of its cost savings to its customers in order to maintain market share. This would have been an early indication of slackening demand.</p><h2>Micron&#39;s consumer facing business is down, and cloud, enterprise and auto businesses will probably roll over shortly</h2><p>This down cycle is driven by the macro-induced demand destruction. This is not lost to management and the analysts. The words “macro” and “macroeconomics” appeared no less than ten times in the F3Q2022CC. The macro headwinds are front and center in everyone’s concern.</p><p>Micron reported that the consumer facing businesses (smartphone and consumer PC) are deteriorating rapidly during F3Q. This is something that I have pointed out in my May 3 article. Micron also reported that the data center, enterprise, and auto business are holding up. During the Q&amp;A session, analysts expressed their concerns for the robustness of the data center business as enterprise CIOs are concerned with the macro-outlook and are pulling back on their budget. Analysts also pointed out that Chinese data centers have already pulled back their spending. Further, memory inventory is elevated in the data center supply chain, even higher than before the pandemic. While management did not provide any concrete answers, it is likely that the analysts’ concerns are simply leading indicators of a downturn in the data center business.</p><p>Similarly, when enterprise customers tighten their budget, the enterprise client business will likely decline. The auto business is always very sensitive to the economy. With the macro backdrop deteriorating rapidly, I will not be surprised that the auto business will roll over soon. Hence, it is likely that all of MU’s business segments will decline in the next several quarters, further impacting revenue, GM, profitability and share price.</p><p>Management has indicated that market visibility is worsening. This can be seen also in the lower revenue and GM guidance for F4Q and wider bands for the guidance. Revenue guidance is at $7.2 billion compared to analysts&#39; consensus of $9.02 billion, a big miss. The revenue guidance band is widened from a typical +/- $200 million to +/- $400 million. Similarly, the GM guidance represents a drop of 520 basis point at the mid-point and the band is widened from a typical +/- 1% to +/-1.5%. Further, management refused to predict when this cycle will bottom. Frankly, I do not think that they know because this down cycle is macro-driven and they, like most people, have very limited visibility on the trajectory of the macro.</p><p>I give management credit for doing things that are within their control. Management will cut operating expenses and capex. They will reduce wafer front end utilization in 2023. However, given the long lead time in the manufacturing cycle and the rapidly declining demand, management expects inventory, now at 108 days of sales, to explode by perhaps as much as 20 more days of sales. This will likely further exacerbate the downturn in GM due to potential write downs, lower utilization of wafer front end, and higher COGS carried in inventory. As a result, I expect GM to decline further beyond F4Q, taking MU’s share price down with it along the way.</p><h2>Gross margin is probably the best indicator to watch for the bottom</h2><p>An investor’s natural question is: when will the share price bottom? I do not know, but I will let my GM indicator guide me. I believe it is the best indicator for predicting the turning of the cycle. I will watch both the GM and the rate of decline of the GM. When the rate of decline moderates, it may be time to close my short positions and go long.</p><p>Some readers have commented in my May 3 article that the low PE ratio of MU shares will provide support for its share price. Unfortunately, earnings will likely decline in a down cycle, causing the PE ratio to increase. Hence, I believe that for most cyclical stocks like MU, the time to buy is when PE is sky-high. The time to sell is when the PE is low. Yet others have suggested that MU’s book value of about $43 per share may provide a floor. Unfortunately, cyclical companies may sell below book value in a down cycle. Hence, an investor may not find comfort in the book value to provide support should the macro get very ugly.</p><h2>Macro indicators are useful to gauge the bottom of Micron shares as well</h2><p>The macroeconomic headwinds impacting the worldwide economy are well known: Inflation, Fed tightening, war in Ukraine, Europe mired in a recession and energy crisis, high energy prices, China’s economy is hurting due to the collapse of its property developers, COVID lock-down, and policies against its tech companies. These same headwinds are impacting demand for MU’s memory products worldwide as well.</p><p>Typically, a memory down cycle lasts about eight quarters. With the plateauing of the GM for four quarters, we may be one to four quarters into this down cycle, depending on when you count as the start of the down cycle. Hence, there may be four or seven more quarters to go before this down cycle ends. However, since this cycle is driven by the macro, macro will likely determine the duration of this cycle. Hence, it pays to watch the macro indicators.</p><p>Shown in Figure 2 is a list of macro indicators that I intend to watch in conjunction with my GM indicator. I borrowed this list from Mr. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. You can find his work on this list of indicators here between time stamps 1:36 and 4:32.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/850a70cdefe0fd0376b0a239dac594f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Figure 2: List of macroeconomic indicators to watch for market bottom. (Rosenberg Research)</p><p>When my GM indicator shows an inflection and when most of these indicators in Figure 2 have reached or come close to their respective target values, then it would be time to close my short positions and go long MU shares. Until then, I will let my short positions ride.</p><p>Looking at the indicators in Figure 2, one should not find too much comfort in the forward PE of the S&amp;P 500 being so close to the target value. I believe that downward revision of forward earnings will come in earnest when 3Q earnings are reported starting in several weeks. Downward revision will likely continue for at least the next six months, if not longer, thereby increasing the forward PE ratio.</p><p>The current 10-year treasury yield is 2.889% while the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is 1.64%. For the ratio of the two yield numbers to reach parity, either the treasury yield has to come down a lot or the S&amp;P 500 has to decline a lot. Both will probably happen as the recession advances. This just tells me that there is much downside risk for MU share price, even though it has already declined by 45% from its peak of this cycle.</p><h2>Risks</h2><p>In the last cycle, investors have anticipated the peaking and bottoming of MU’s GM and acted accordingly ahead of the inflection points. Hence, there is a risk that investors may buy before the bottom, thereby reducing the return on my shorts and reducing the potential gain of my future longs. The economy may not worsen as much as I expect and hence MU’s shares may rebound rapidly. Micron, with its share price down significantly, may attract a suitor, causing share price to jump. Selling short always carries a risk of potentially unlimited loss. Buying put option carries a risk of complete loss of one’s capital.</p><h2>Takeaway</h2><p>Micron’s management has guided GM and revenue to decline 520 bps and 16.7%, respectively, QoQ at the mid-point. More importantly, the revenue guidance is 20% below analysts&#39; consensus, a big miss! It is likely that this down cycle will last well into 2023, resulting in Micron’s share price to continue to decline. This down cycle is driven by macro headwinds. Hence, it pays to watch my GM indicator for its inflection as well as some macro indicators to guide the timing of the closing of my shorts and to go long.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-04 19:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521612-micron-technology-deteriorating-gross-margin-points-to-share-price-downside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Micron's business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely continue to declineMicron is a great company. It is very competitive with the other semiconductor memory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521612-micron-technology-deteriorating-gross-margin-points-to-share-price-downside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521612-micron-technology-deteriorating-gross-margin-points-to-share-price-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2248313616","content_text":"Micron's business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely continue to declineMicron is a great company. It is very competitive with the other semiconductor memory suppliers of the world. Its balance sheet is strong and it generates significant free cash flow. It has been reducing its cost structure, making it more profitable through a cycle. Micron and its peers have been more rational in their capex investment. I look forward to buying MU shares someday, but today I am short into this down cycle.It is my opinion that despite the high-tech nature of the manufacturing process, memory is a commodity, and the business is cyclical. Profitability is driven by supply demand balance. As a result, Micron trades like a cyclical commodity stock with low PE ratios. Hence, in order to profit from trading in MU stock, one must trade it like a cyclical commodity business, selling close to the top and buying close to the bottom.I have found that MU’s GM is the best indicator to foretell the top and the bottom of the cycle. A chart of MU’s historical GM and share price is shown in Figure 1. The last GM data point is management’s guidance for F4Q, which is 41.5% at the mid-point.Figure 1: Micron’s historical GM and price. Note: the price in Figure 1 is the closing price the day after earnings print. (Company releases and SA data base)Figure 1 shows that historically, MU’s price peaked and then declined after the GM rolled over and declined and bottomed and then increased after the GM bottomed out and increased. However, in the current cycle, the GM has plateaued for four quarters and investors have been selling ahead of the GM decline likely because of the weakening macro outlook. In retrospect, the plateauing of the GM was likely an indication that despite continuous cost reduction, MU is losing pricing power and has to pass along most of its cost savings to its customers in order to maintain market share. This would have been an early indication of slackening demand.Micron's consumer facing business is down, and cloud, enterprise and auto businesses will probably roll over shortlyThis down cycle is driven by the macro-induced demand destruction. This is not lost to management and the analysts. The words “macro” and “macroeconomics” appeared no less than ten times in the F3Q2022CC. The macro headwinds are front and center in everyone’s concern.Micron reported that the consumer facing businesses (smartphone and consumer PC) are deteriorating rapidly during F3Q. This is something that I have pointed out in my May 3 article. Micron also reported that the data center, enterprise, and auto business are holding up. During the Q&A session, analysts expressed their concerns for the robustness of the data center business as enterprise CIOs are concerned with the macro-outlook and are pulling back on their budget. Analysts also pointed out that Chinese data centers have already pulled back their spending. Further, memory inventory is elevated in the data center supply chain, even higher than before the pandemic. While management did not provide any concrete answers, it is likely that the analysts’ concerns are simply leading indicators of a downturn in the data center business.Similarly, when enterprise customers tighten their budget, the enterprise client business will likely decline. The auto business is always very sensitive to the economy. With the macro backdrop deteriorating rapidly, I will not be surprised that the auto business will roll over soon. Hence, it is likely that all of MU’s business segments will decline in the next several quarters, further impacting revenue, GM, profitability and share price.Management has indicated that market visibility is worsening. This can be seen also in the lower revenue and GM guidance for F4Q and wider bands for the guidance. Revenue guidance is at $7.2 billion compared to analysts' consensus of $9.02 billion, a big miss. The revenue guidance band is widened from a typical +/- $200 million to +/- $400 million. Similarly, the GM guidance represents a drop of 520 basis point at the mid-point and the band is widened from a typical +/- 1% to +/-1.5%. Further, management refused to predict when this cycle will bottom. Frankly, I do not think that they know because this down cycle is macro-driven and they, like most people, have very limited visibility on the trajectory of the macro.I give management credit for doing things that are within their control. Management will cut operating expenses and capex. They will reduce wafer front end utilization in 2023. However, given the long lead time in the manufacturing cycle and the rapidly declining demand, management expects inventory, now at 108 days of sales, to explode by perhaps as much as 20 more days of sales. This will likely further exacerbate the downturn in GM due to potential write downs, lower utilization of wafer front end, and higher COGS carried in inventory. As a result, I expect GM to decline further beyond F4Q, taking MU’s share price down with it along the way.Gross margin is probably the best indicator to watch for the bottomAn investor’s natural question is: when will the share price bottom? I do not know, but I will let my GM indicator guide me. I believe it is the best indicator for predicting the turning of the cycle. I will watch both the GM and the rate of decline of the GM. When the rate of decline moderates, it may be time to close my short positions and go long.Some readers have commented in my May 3 article that the low PE ratio of MU shares will provide support for its share price. Unfortunately, earnings will likely decline in a down cycle, causing the PE ratio to increase. Hence, I believe that for most cyclical stocks like MU, the time to buy is when PE is sky-high. The time to sell is when the PE is low. Yet others have suggested that MU’s book value of about $43 per share may provide a floor. Unfortunately, cyclical companies may sell below book value in a down cycle. Hence, an investor may not find comfort in the book value to provide support should the macro get very ugly.Macro indicators are useful to gauge the bottom of Micron shares as wellThe macroeconomic headwinds impacting the worldwide economy are well known: Inflation, Fed tightening, war in Ukraine, Europe mired in a recession and energy crisis, high energy prices, China’s economy is hurting due to the collapse of its property developers, COVID lock-down, and policies against its tech companies. These same headwinds are impacting demand for MU’s memory products worldwide as well.Typically, a memory down cycle lasts about eight quarters. With the plateauing of the GM for four quarters, we may be one to four quarters into this down cycle, depending on when you count as the start of the down cycle. Hence, there may be four or seven more quarters to go before this down cycle ends. However, since this cycle is driven by the macro, macro will likely determine the duration of this cycle. Hence, it pays to watch the macro indicators.Shown in Figure 2 is a list of macro indicators that I intend to watch in conjunction with my GM indicator. I borrowed this list from Mr. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. You can find his work on this list of indicators here between time stamps 1:36 and 4:32.Figure 2: List of macroeconomic indicators to watch for market bottom. (Rosenberg Research)When my GM indicator shows an inflection and when most of these indicators in Figure 2 have reached or come close to their respective target values, then it would be time to close my short positions and go long MU shares. Until then, I will let my short positions ride.Looking at the indicators in Figure 2, one should not find too much comfort in the forward PE of the S&P 500 being so close to the target value. I believe that downward revision of forward earnings will come in earnest when 3Q earnings are reported starting in several weeks. Downward revision will likely continue for at least the next six months, if not longer, thereby increasing the forward PE ratio.The current 10-year treasury yield is 2.889% while the S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.64%. For the ratio of the two yield numbers to reach parity, either the treasury yield has to come down a lot or the S&P 500 has to decline a lot. Both will probably happen as the recession advances. This just tells me that there is much downside risk for MU share price, even though it has already declined by 45% from its peak of this cycle.RisksIn the last cycle, investors have anticipated the peaking and bottoming of MU’s GM and acted accordingly ahead of the inflection points. Hence, there is a risk that investors may buy before the bottom, thereby reducing the return on my shorts and reducing the potential gain of my future longs. The economy may not worsen as much as I expect and hence MU’s shares may rebound rapidly. Micron, with its share price down significantly, may attract a suitor, causing share price to jump. Selling short always carries a risk of potentially unlimited loss. Buying put option carries a risk of complete loss of one’s capital.TakeawayMicron’s management has guided GM and revenue to decline 520 bps and 16.7%, respectively, QoQ at the mid-point. More importantly, the revenue guidance is 20% below analysts' consensus, a big miss! It is likely that this down cycle will last well into 2023, resulting in Micron’s share price to continue to decline. This down cycle is driven by macro headwinds. Hence, it pays to watch my GM indicator for its inflection as well as some macro indicators to guide the timing of the closing of my shorts and to go long.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044754853,"gmtCreate":1656819463873,"gmtModify":1676535899688,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree&nbsp;","listText":"Agree&nbsp;","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044754853","repostId":"2248824254","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2248824254","pubTimestamp":1656810046,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2248824254?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-03 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Earnings: It's All Over! Or Is It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248824254","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryA great FQ3 earnings is quickly wiped away by a drastically cut FQ4 guide.Demand fell off qui","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>A great FQ3 earnings is quickly wiped away by a drastically cut FQ4 guide.</li><li>Demand fell off quickly at the end of the reported quarter, and the company is battening down the hatches as it expects continued headwinds.</li><li>But - and this is a big but - it has already been pricing in this news as it remains only 15% away from the coveted one-time book value.</li><li>The stock may be closer to the bottom and ready to turn around quicker than the news indicates.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff9b79759c22a1aae712c823ca97c23\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>knowlesgallery/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>Leading up to Micron&#39;s (NASDAQ:MU) FQ3 report, the stock had plummeted from $66 to $55. It seemed the market was getting ahead of some bad news. Then the last two weeks leading up to the report, analysts started an entourageof price target cuts and downgrades. At this point, the stock was hitting new 52-lows daily. Finally, the report is released, and we&#39;re met with a good quarter but a dismal downside FQ4 guide. It&#39;s all over. Micron is headed for a cycle bottom. But just a second. The market had been getting ahead of this news for weeks and months. With the report finally released, it&#39;s within 15% of book value - a key valuation in determining the bottom of prior memory cycles. So, the downside risk has now compressed to nearly nothing at a known floor. Perhaps it&#39;s time to step in after a long rollercoaster to $97 and back.</p><p>There&#39;s no denying management&#39;s guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter was anything but disappointing. It seems demand had fallen off steeply at the end of the reporting quarter. This is exemplified by the expected near 17% quarter-over-quarter sequential decline in revenue. The problem - investors are looking at the wrong reasons <i>why</i> while the valuation of the stock vs. its historical and reliable book value is at the bottom.</p><p>Let&#39;s start with the why.</p><p><b>Memory Prices In Isolation</b></p><p>DRAM pricing has not been the issue, contrary to the many pundits who continue to opine DRAM &#34;is down 12%&#34; over the last several months. This is historical data, and while I understand the idea of extrapolating weak pricing into the future, it requires critical thinking to place it back into Micron&#39;s business and understand the cause and effects.</p><p>If DRAM pricing had been down 12% over the last three or four months, Micron would <i>have already</i> seen this headwind. But instead, the company reported in line with its revenue guidance and beat materially on the bottom line with a $2.59 print against the guidance top end of $2.56. The company reported DRAM ASPs declined &#34;slightly&#34; quarter-over-quarter,<i>and</i>bit shipments increased by just over 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b38f963e16bbfa398ea07f340ee65514\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Performance of DRAM and NAND in FQ3 (Micron&#39;s FQ3 Earnings Presentation)</span></p><p>That&#39;s not a weak quarter. So, for all the hand wringing of memory prices dropping, it shows it doesn&#39;t affect Micron the way a one-to-one correlation would; how some would portray it.</p><p>&#34;Then explain the horrible FQ4 guidance, Joe.&#34;</p><p>Sure, I&#39;ll be happy to.</p><p><b>How FQ4 Will Be Materially Worse</b></p><p>The problem with pundits and some analysts is the hyperfixation on pricing and forgetting there&#39;s another variable involved in calculating revenue: Bits shipped. Multiplying a $10 chip by no shipments is still zero. Moreover, multiplying a $0.00 chip by 5M units shipped is still zero. The model requires both price and quantity. So if pricing declined &#34;slightly&#34; in the quarter, but the number of units was up 10%, you get a quarter-over-quarter revenue growth rate of 11%. What good was making a big deal about DRAM pricing then?</p><p>However, if we move over to the bits shipped end of things, this is where FQ4 comes together (or doesn&#39;t). CEO Sanjay Mehrotra commented on the key piece of this - demand - by saying, &#34;Near the end of fiscal Q3, we saw a significant reduction in near-term industry bit demand, primarily attributable to end demand weakness in consumer markets, including PC and smartphone.&#34; The wording &#34;bit demand&#34; is not by mistake. This correlates to bits shipped, specifically, and not pricing. Because he goes on to say, &#34;To protect profitability,<i><b>we will maintain pricing discipline</b></i>, manage capacity utilization, and use inventory as a buffer to navigate through this period of demand weakness.&#34; (FQ3 earnings call, emphasis mine)</p><p>This is how pricing doesn&#39;t move, but bits shipped do, causing the issue. Figuring out bits shipped and demand is harder than watching some TrendForce reports about pricing. Pricing can stay the same because no transaction happened. The transactions that do happen when Micron is agreeable to the terms may occur at the same price or slightly lower, but there&#39;s far less quantity involved. In this case, pricing appears stable, but the volume behind it could be half as much. This is how FQ3 went from great times, with no accurate indication of how bad it was, to FQ4 sneaking a massive cut to guidance.</p><p>This also is how gross margins become affected as the company begins storing what it doesn&#39;t sell in inventory. This allows production to remain as close to 100% as possible to not see drastic operating margin deterioration. Folks will tell you this is the key to seeing the cycle. But the truth is, things are more complicated in 2022, with supply managed by only three companies and Micron having the technology lead in DRAM and NAND. So I urge you to stop looking at one metric intensely and not keeping the whole picture in mind.</p><p>To top this all off, it doesn&#39;t look like there&#39;s any near-term help on the way. Once things start moving downhill in demand, it generally takes two to three quarters to see the demand swing in the other direction. This means we won&#39;t see the recent mid-$2 earnings of the last quarter for a bit. But it doesn&#39;t mean we&#39;ll see negative quarters, either. As much as the cycle narrative is being thrown around again, the oscillations are<i>far</i>less erratic and have smoothed out over the last several years.</p><p>The thing is, where&#39;s the stock in relation to all these upcoming weak earnings?</p><p><b>But The Stock Is Already Near The Bottom</b></p><p>This is where things get interesting because investors have just gotten the news from the company, so the worst is just beginning. Right? Well, not exactly.</p><p>The market has been so ahead of any changes in Micron&#39;s business that it began pricing this guidance as far back as February and as recently as the beginning of June. It wasn&#39;t far off as Micron is &#34;only&#34; down five or so percent midday Friday with the magnitude of the downside guide as extensive as it was reported less than 24 hours ago. Because of this market anticipation, the stock is now within striking distance of its typical &#34;cyclical&#34; valuation: book value.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c94f20e30bdd225a7563353b368ee3bb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>This has been a go-to valuation as the company&#39;s capex-heavy industry has historically put it at liquidation levels if it were to fold under the pressure. Mind you, a one-time book value has been the level due to the level of stability of the company with its weak balance sheet and lagging technology.</p><p>Today, however, the company&#39;s balance sheet is pristine, reaching a record $5B in net cash and having $14.5B in liquidity. This compares to the December 2018 valuation low with $3.07B in net cash and $9.7B in liquidity. So there&#39;s no question the company is in a better position on the balance sheet.</p><p>Technologically, the company is now several quarters<i>ahead</i>of its competitors, with 1α in full production while 1β heads for production at the end of calendar 2022.</p><blockquote><i>Our 1α (1-alpha) DRAM and 176-layer NAND ramps are several quarters ahead of the industry and progressing well as we continue to qualify new products that use these nodes.</i></blockquote><p>This has been corroborated by other SA authors who have kept tabs on Micron&#39;s competitors with great interest.</p><p><b>Future Earnings Will Be Bad, But The Stock Knew It Already</b></p><p>Micron will experience negative revenue and EPS growth over the next few quarters as it grapples with waning demand in consumer end markets. Graphics, industrial, auto, and cloud should hold the line for the medium term, but it depends on the pricing side of the equation. Keeping an eye on both is key to seeing if the environment will get materially worse than the material news we just got or if there is a buoying to come.</p><p>With the company forecasting a cut to FY23 capex, free cash flow will not be as hurt and allow the company to continue its buyback at depressed prices. The record-high net cash position should be maintained as high-quality inventory is stored for sale during the leaner capex times. From a company perspective, I have a sleep-well-at-night attitude with the balance sheet the way it is. Both buyback and dividend will continue to move along without concern.</p><p>Because the stock is within 15% of book value levels, the downside has a floor, helping the investor understand where things solidify and maintain risk-aversion. The industry took a relatively quick turn to the off-ramp to regroup, but the relative positioning of the stock has already lessened the blow. Don&#39;t be surprised if the stock moves higher by the end of the year as the market begins to price in the other side of the story.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Earnings: It's All Over! Or Is It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Earnings: It's All Over! Or Is It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-03 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521424-micron-earnings-headwinds-ahead><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA great FQ3 earnings is quickly wiped away by a drastically cut FQ4 guide.Demand fell off quickly at the end of the reported quarter, and the company is battening down the hatches as it expects...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521424-micron-earnings-headwinds-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521424-micron-earnings-headwinds-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2248824254","content_text":"SummaryA great FQ3 earnings is quickly wiped away by a drastically cut FQ4 guide.Demand fell off quickly at the end of the reported quarter, and the company is battening down the hatches as it expects continued headwinds.But - and this is a big but - it has already been pricing in this news as it remains only 15% away from the coveted one-time book value.The stock may be closer to the bottom and ready to turn around quicker than the news indicates.knowlesgallery/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesLeading up to Micron's (NASDAQ:MU) FQ3 report, the stock had plummeted from $66 to $55. It seemed the market was getting ahead of some bad news. Then the last two weeks leading up to the report, analysts started an entourageof price target cuts and downgrades. At this point, the stock was hitting new 52-lows daily. Finally, the report is released, and we're met with a good quarter but a dismal downside FQ4 guide. It's all over. Micron is headed for a cycle bottom. But just a second. The market had been getting ahead of this news for weeks and months. With the report finally released, it's within 15% of book value - a key valuation in determining the bottom of prior memory cycles. So, the downside risk has now compressed to nearly nothing at a known floor. Perhaps it's time to step in after a long rollercoaster to $97 and back.There's no denying management's guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter was anything but disappointing. It seems demand had fallen off steeply at the end of the reporting quarter. This is exemplified by the expected near 17% quarter-over-quarter sequential decline in revenue. The problem - investors are looking at the wrong reasons why while the valuation of the stock vs. its historical and reliable book value is at the bottom.Let's start with the why.Memory Prices In IsolationDRAM pricing has not been the issue, contrary to the many pundits who continue to opine DRAM \"is down 12%\" over the last several months. This is historical data, and while I understand the idea of extrapolating weak pricing into the future, it requires critical thinking to place it back into Micron's business and understand the cause and effects.If DRAM pricing had been down 12% over the last three or four months, Micron would have already seen this headwind. But instead, the company reported in line with its revenue guidance and beat materially on the bottom line with a $2.59 print against the guidance top end of $2.56. The company reported DRAM ASPs declined \"slightly\" quarter-over-quarter,andbit shipments increased by just over 10%.Performance of DRAM and NAND in FQ3 (Micron's FQ3 Earnings Presentation)That's not a weak quarter. So, for all the hand wringing of memory prices dropping, it shows it doesn't affect Micron the way a one-to-one correlation would; how some would portray it.\"Then explain the horrible FQ4 guidance, Joe.\"Sure, I'll be happy to.How FQ4 Will Be Materially WorseThe problem with pundits and some analysts is the hyperfixation on pricing and forgetting there's another variable involved in calculating revenue: Bits shipped. Multiplying a $10 chip by no shipments is still zero. Moreover, multiplying a $0.00 chip by 5M units shipped is still zero. The model requires both price and quantity. So if pricing declined \"slightly\" in the quarter, but the number of units was up 10%, you get a quarter-over-quarter revenue growth rate of 11%. What good was making a big deal about DRAM pricing then?However, if we move over to the bits shipped end of things, this is where FQ4 comes together (or doesn't). CEO Sanjay Mehrotra commented on the key piece of this - demand - by saying, \"Near the end of fiscal Q3, we saw a significant reduction in near-term industry bit demand, primarily attributable to end demand weakness in consumer markets, including PC and smartphone.\" The wording \"bit demand\" is not by mistake. This correlates to bits shipped, specifically, and not pricing. Because he goes on to say, \"To protect profitability,we will maintain pricing discipline, manage capacity utilization, and use inventory as a buffer to navigate through this period of demand weakness.\" (FQ3 earnings call, emphasis mine)This is how pricing doesn't move, but bits shipped do, causing the issue. Figuring out bits shipped and demand is harder than watching some TrendForce reports about pricing. Pricing can stay the same because no transaction happened. The transactions that do happen when Micron is agreeable to the terms may occur at the same price or slightly lower, but there's far less quantity involved. In this case, pricing appears stable, but the volume behind it could be half as much. This is how FQ3 went from great times, with no accurate indication of how bad it was, to FQ4 sneaking a massive cut to guidance.This also is how gross margins become affected as the company begins storing what it doesn't sell in inventory. This allows production to remain as close to 100% as possible to not see drastic operating margin deterioration. Folks will tell you this is the key to seeing the cycle. But the truth is, things are more complicated in 2022, with supply managed by only three companies and Micron having the technology lead in DRAM and NAND. So I urge you to stop looking at one metric intensely and not keeping the whole picture in mind.To top this all off, it doesn't look like there's any near-term help on the way. Once things start moving downhill in demand, it generally takes two to three quarters to see the demand swing in the other direction. This means we won't see the recent mid-$2 earnings of the last quarter for a bit. But it doesn't mean we'll see negative quarters, either. As much as the cycle narrative is being thrown around again, the oscillations arefarless erratic and have smoothed out over the last several years.The thing is, where's the stock in relation to all these upcoming weak earnings?But The Stock Is Already Near The BottomThis is where things get interesting because investors have just gotten the news from the company, so the worst is just beginning. Right? Well, not exactly.The market has been so ahead of any changes in Micron's business that it began pricing this guidance as far back as February and as recently as the beginning of June. It wasn't far off as Micron is \"only\" down five or so percent midday Friday with the magnitude of the downside guide as extensive as it was reported less than 24 hours ago. Because of this market anticipation, the stock is now within striking distance of its typical \"cyclical\" valuation: book value.Data by YChartsThis has been a go-to valuation as the company's capex-heavy industry has historically put it at liquidation levels if it were to fold under the pressure. Mind you, a one-time book value has been the level due to the level of stability of the company with its weak balance sheet and lagging technology.Today, however, the company's balance sheet is pristine, reaching a record $5B in net cash and having $14.5B in liquidity. This compares to the December 2018 valuation low with $3.07B in net cash and $9.7B in liquidity. So there's no question the company is in a better position on the balance sheet.Technologically, the company is now several quartersaheadof its competitors, with 1α in full production while 1β heads for production at the end of calendar 2022.Our 1α (1-alpha) DRAM and 176-layer NAND ramps are several quarters ahead of the industry and progressing well as we continue to qualify new products that use these nodes.This has been corroborated by other SA authors who have kept tabs on Micron's competitors with great interest.Future Earnings Will Be Bad, But The Stock Knew It AlreadyMicron will experience negative revenue and EPS growth over the next few quarters as it grapples with waning demand in consumer end markets. Graphics, industrial, auto, and cloud should hold the line for the medium term, but it depends on the pricing side of the equation. Keeping an eye on both is key to seeing if the environment will get materially worse than the material news we just got or if there is a buoying to come.With the company forecasting a cut to FY23 capex, free cash flow will not be as hurt and allow the company to continue its buyback at depressed prices. The record-high net cash position should be maintained as high-quality inventory is stored for sale during the leaner capex times. From a company perspective, I have a sleep-well-at-night attitude with the balance sheet the way it is. Both buyback and dividend will continue to move along without concern.Because the stock is within 15% of book value levels, the downside has a floor, helping the investor understand where things solidify and maintain risk-aversion. The industry took a relatively quick turn to the off-ramp to regroup, but the relative positioning of the stock has already lessened the blow. Don't be surprised if the stock moves higher by the end of the year as the market begins to price in the other side of the story.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9044754853,"gmtCreate":1656819463873,"gmtModify":1676535899688,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree&nbsp;","listText":"Agree&nbsp;","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044754853","repostId":"2248824254","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":271647789527264,"gmtCreate":1707358054814,"gmtModify":1707358059742,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Though it is good to see Palentir making profits, the $51+ valuation for a projected cash flow of less than $1 billion is too far.","listText":"Though it is good to see Palentir making profits, the $51+ valuation for a projected cash flow of less than $1 billion is too far.","text":"Though it is good to see Palentir making profits, the $51+ valuation for a projected cash flow of less than $1 billion is too far.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271647789527264","repostId":"1138480991","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138480991","pubTimestamp":1707356752,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138480991?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-08 09:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Continues to Rise Nearly 8% as Jefferies Raises Its Price Target on Palantir","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138480991","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"For a big data company with impressive AI capabilities, Palantir has certainly faced its fair share of headwinds in recent years. Struggles to remain profitable have led many bears to assert that continued bottom-line growth may be much more elusive than the company has previously suggested. Even I’ve been in the bearish camp on PLTR stock.However, Palantir’s recent earnings report cemented yet another profitable quarter — its fifth in a row. It also provided investors with a rosy outlook for bo","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir </a> stock is up big again on Wednesday, bringing its two-day rise to almost 40%.</p></li><li><p>Today’s surge appears to be related to a price target increase from Jefferies.</p></li><li><p>Here’s what investors should know about the bullish analyst report and Palantir’s future outlook.</p></li></ul><p>Few companies have seen the sort of gravity-defying moves that Palantir has shown in recent days. Following earnings results, PLTR stock has absolutely skyrocketed, surging almost 40% over the past two trading sessions alone.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, today’s nearly 8% move in PLTR stock appears to be tied to yet another catalyst. Specifically, Jefferies<strong> </strong>analyst Brent Thill upgraded the stock today to “hold” from “underperform,” boosting the firm’s price target on the artificial intelligence (AI) and big data company from $13 per share to $22.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc50d7cebf174ecbff4d168c6f414df7\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"625\"/></p><p>That’s a big jump and suggests that Wall Street is growing much more constructive on Palantir and its growth prospects moving forward. After all, the company did report some rather stellar results that shocked even the most ardent bulls.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Let’s dive into the reasons for this upgrade and the positive momentum around Palantir lately.</p><h3 id=\"id_3824160380\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Why Is PLTR Stock Continuing to Surge So Impressively?</h3><p style=\"text-align: start;\">For a big data company with impressive AI capabilities, Palantir has certainly faced its fair share of headwinds in recent years. Struggles to remain profitable have led many bears to assert that continued bottom-line growth may be much more elusive than the company has previously suggested. Even I’ve been in the bearish camp on PLTR stock.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, Palantir’s recent earnings report cemented yet another profitable quarter — its fifth in a row. It also provided investors with a rosy outlook for both revenue and earnings growth over time.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The company noted strong demand for its AI offerings, suggesting that demand for large language models and Palantir’s related services in this realm remains robust. While the company’s 20% revenue growth rate was impressive, its forecast of between $800 million and $1 billion of adjusted free cash flow for 2024 appears to have particularly stoked investor interest in the company.</p><p>Shares of publicly traded companies are typically valued on the basis of future cash flows. With a $1 billion free cash flow estimate for 2024 and a 20% growth rate (assuming that flows through to the company’s bottom line), PLTR stock looks a lot less expensive three or four years out. That’s what the market seems to be focusing on right now.</p><p>That said, analysts have pointed to a significant valuation premium for PLTR stock at these higher levels. Even this latest price target increase to $22 per share is below where shares trade now. Thus, I’m going to remain cautious on this stock for the near term, although I can certainly understand the enthusiasm around Palantir today.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Continues to Rise Nearly 8% as Jefferies Raises Its Price Target on Palantir</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Continues to Rise Nearly 8% as Jefferies Raises Its Price Target on Palantir\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-08 09:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2024/02/jefferies-just-raised-its-price-target-on-palantir-pltr-stock/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir  stock is up big again on Wednesday, bringing its two-day rise to almost 40%.Today’s surge appears to be related to a price target increase from Jefferies.Here’s what investors should know ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/02/jefferies-just-raised-its-price-target-on-palantir-pltr-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2024/02/jefferies-just-raised-its-price-target-on-palantir-pltr-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138480991","content_text":"Palantir  stock is up big again on Wednesday, bringing its two-day rise to almost 40%.Today’s surge appears to be related to a price target increase from Jefferies.Here’s what investors should know about the bullish analyst report and Palantir’s future outlook.Few companies have seen the sort of gravity-defying moves that Palantir has shown in recent days. Following earnings results, PLTR stock has absolutely skyrocketed, surging almost 40% over the past two trading sessions alone.However, today’s nearly 8% move in PLTR stock appears to be tied to yet another catalyst. Specifically, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill upgraded the stock today to “hold” from “underperform,” boosting the firm’s price target on the artificial intelligence (AI) and big data company from $13 per share to $22.That’s a big jump and suggests that Wall Street is growing much more constructive on Palantir and its growth prospects moving forward. After all, the company did report some rather stellar results that shocked even the most ardent bulls.Let’s dive into the reasons for this upgrade and the positive momentum around Palantir lately.Why Is PLTR Stock Continuing to Surge So Impressively?For a big data company with impressive AI capabilities, Palantir has certainly faced its fair share of headwinds in recent years. Struggles to remain profitable have led many bears to assert that continued bottom-line growth may be much more elusive than the company has previously suggested. Even I’ve been in the bearish camp on PLTR stock.However, Palantir’s recent earnings report cemented yet another profitable quarter — its fifth in a row. It also provided investors with a rosy outlook for both revenue and earnings growth over time.The company noted strong demand for its AI offerings, suggesting that demand for large language models and Palantir’s related services in this realm remains robust. While the company’s 20% revenue growth rate was impressive, its forecast of between $800 million and $1 billion of adjusted free cash flow for 2024 appears to have particularly stoked investor interest in the company.Shares of publicly traded companies are typically valued on the basis of future cash flows. With a $1 billion free cash flow estimate for 2024 and a 20% growth rate (assuming that flows through to the company’s bottom line), PLTR stock looks a lot less expensive three or four years out. That’s what the market seems to be focusing on right now.That said, analysts have pointed to a significant valuation premium for PLTR stock at these higher levels. Even this latest price target increase to $22 per share is below where shares trade now. Thus, I’m going to remain cautious on this stock for the near term, although I can certainly understand the enthusiasm around Palantir today.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323678222282816,"gmtCreate":1720048213015,"gmtModify":1720048216734,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Analysts who upgrade the stock following the price movement must be of low quality. They should not be respected.","listText":"Analysts who upgrade the stock following the price movement must be of low quality. They should not be respected.","text":"Analysts who upgrade the stock following the price movement must be of low quality. They should not be respected.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323678222282816","repostId":"2448718488","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2448718488","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The most recognized names in North America, Europe and Asia rely on MT Newswires to power their applications. Better news, better service, better price.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"MT Newswires Live","id":"1092851196","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e"},"pubTimestamp":1720014311,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2448718488?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-03 21:45","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"BofA Securities Raises Price Target on Tesla to $260 From $220, Maintains Buy Rating","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2448718488","media":"MT Newswires Live","summary":"BofA securities raises price target on Tesla to $260 from $220, maintains buy rating.Tesla shares rose 3.6% in morning trading after soaring 10% on Tuesday.Tesla has an average hold rating and price target range of $85 to $310, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>BofA securities raises price target on Tesla to $260 from $220, maintains buy rating.</p><p>Tesla shares rose over 5% in morning trading after soaring 10% on Tuesday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e240dbe7a76fedcde36b31b4abb24d8\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"853\"/></p><p>Tesla has an average hold rating and price target range of $85 to $310, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BofA Securities Raises Price Target on Tesla to $260 From $220, Maintains Buy Rating</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBofA Securities Raises Price Target on Tesla to $260 From $220, Maintains Buy Rating\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092851196\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">MT Newswires Live </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-03 21:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>BofA securities raises price target on Tesla to $260 from $220, maintains buy rating.</p><p>Tesla shares rose over 5% in morning trading after soaring 10% on Tuesday.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e240dbe7a76fedcde36b31b4abb24d8\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"853\"/></p><p>Tesla has an average hold rating and price target range of $85 to $310, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares"},"source_url":"https://www.mtnewswires.com/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2448718488","content_text":"BofA securities raises price target on Tesla to $260 from $220, maintains buy rating.Tesla shares rose over 5% in morning trading after soaring 10% on Tuesday.Tesla has an average hold rating and price target range of $85 to $310, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979904484,"gmtCreate":1685414318749,"gmtModify":1685414426081,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Next two weeks of nasdaq may prove AI boom right or wrong.","listText":"Next two weeks of nasdaq may prove AI boom right or wrong.","text":"Next two weeks of nasdaq may prove AI boom right or wrong.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979904484","repostId":"2338134438","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2338134438","pubTimestamp":1685411457,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2338134438?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-30 09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The AI-Fueled Stock Market Rally Is \"Overextended\" and Similar to the Dot-Com Era Mania, Veteran Economist David Rosenberg Warns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2338134438","media":"Markets Insider","summary":"David Rosenberg said the stock market rally is similar to the dot-com era collapse.The veteran econo","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>David Rosenberg said the stock market rally is similar to the dot-com era collapse.</p></li><li><p>The veteran economist warned that the rally is way overextended due to the AI frenzy.</p></li><li><p>Rosenberg believes in AI long term, but &#34;the current environment is taking on a mania of sorts.&#34;</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da1219a06c6adfec90264a338cd8a8d4\" alt=\"David Rosenberg\" title=\"David Rosenberg\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\"/><span>David Rosenberg</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The stock market&#39;s rally, fronted by the artificial intelligence frenzy, will be short-lived like the dot-com era boom, David Rosenberg said. </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The veteran economist, who is the president and founder of Rosenberg Research, said the current surge in stocks is overextended. Equities have been performing well despite a high-interest-rate environment, tightening credit conditions, and ongoing debt ceiling negotiations. </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The S&amp;P 500 earlier this month hit 4,200 for the first time since August, and is up 9.6% since the start of the year. </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;I think that we have a price bubble,&#34; Rosenberg told CNBC on Thursday. &#34;If you look at the six-month chart of the Nasdaq 100, you have to be blind not to see that, &#39;Okay, this is actually looks very weird, and it&#39;s way overextended.&#39;&#34;</p><p>This rally, in part, is on the back of surging AI interest. </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed 1.7% higher on Thursday, fueled by chipmaker Nvidia&#39;s blockbuster earnings. The company&#39;s stock skyrocketed after the release of a glowing forecast for the second quarter, citing booming demand for its AI products. Nvidia, whose earnings call this week mentioned AI 43 times, closed 24% higher on Thursday.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;This type of corporate behaviour is not too different from what took place in the dotcom bubble, with company after company satisfying investors&#39; appetite for news on how it plans to incorporate the internet into its business — or boosting stocks just because they added &#39;.com&#39; to the name,&#34; Rosenberg wrote in a Financial Post column, released on Thursday.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The economist added: &#34;So, while we are a believer in the long-term benefits of AI, from an investor standpoint, the current environment is taking on a mania of sorts.&#34;</p><p>UBS&#39;s Art Cashin echoed similar sentiments, describing AI as the &#34;new mini-version of the dot-com.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;Everything you hear, it&#39;s going to have an AI inflection, everything from new drugs and medicine, to predictive natures of all types,&#34; Cashin told CNBC on Thursday. &#34;This is going to be interesting.&#34;  </p></body></html>","source":"marketsinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The AI-Fueled Stock Market Rally Is \"Overextended\" and Similar to the Dot-Com Era Mania, Veteran Economist David Rosenberg Warns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe AI-Fueled Stock Market Rally Is \"Overextended\" and Similar to the Dot-Com Era Mania, Veteran Economist David Rosenberg Warns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-30 09:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-ai-nvidia-dotcom-bubble-economist-david-rosenberg-2023-5><strong>Markets Insider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>David Rosenberg said the stock market rally is similar to the dot-com era collapse.The veteran economist warned that the rally is way overextended due to the AI frenzy.Rosenberg believes in AI long ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-ai-nvidia-dotcom-bubble-economist-david-rosenberg-2023-5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","AMD":"美国超微公司","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4543":"AI","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-ai-nvidia-dotcom-bubble-economist-david-rosenberg-2023-5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2338134438","content_text":"David Rosenberg said the stock market rally is similar to the dot-com era collapse.The veteran economist warned that the rally is way overextended due to the AI frenzy.Rosenberg believes in AI long term, but \"the current environment is taking on a mania of sorts.\"David RosenbergThe stock market's rally, fronted by the artificial intelligence frenzy, will be short-lived like the dot-com era boom, David Rosenberg said. The veteran economist, who is the president and founder of Rosenberg Research, said the current surge in stocks is overextended. Equities have been performing well despite a high-interest-rate environment, tightening credit conditions, and ongoing debt ceiling negotiations. The S&P 500 earlier this month hit 4,200 for the first time since August, and is up 9.6% since the start of the year. \"I think that we have a price bubble,\" Rosenberg told CNBC on Thursday. \"If you look at the six-month chart of the Nasdaq 100, you have to be blind not to see that, 'Okay, this is actually looks very weird, and it's way overextended.'\"This rally, in part, is on the back of surging AI interest. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed 1.7% higher on Thursday, fueled by chipmaker Nvidia's blockbuster earnings. The company's stock skyrocketed after the release of a glowing forecast for the second quarter, citing booming demand for its AI products. Nvidia, whose earnings call this week mentioned AI 43 times, closed 24% higher on Thursday.\"This type of corporate behaviour is not too different from what took place in the dotcom bubble, with company after company satisfying investors' appetite for news on how it plans to incorporate the internet into its business — or boosting stocks just because they added '.com' to the name,\" Rosenberg wrote in a Financial Post column, released on Thursday.The economist added: \"So, while we are a believer in the long-term benefits of AI, from an investor standpoint, the current environment is taking on a mania of sorts.\"UBS's Art Cashin echoed similar sentiments, describing AI as the \"new mini-version of the dot-com.\"\"Everything you hear, it's going to have an AI inflection, everything from new drugs and medicine, to predictive natures of all types,\" Cashin told CNBC on Thursday. \"This is going to be interesting.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956579361,"gmtCreate":1674092350653,"gmtModify":1676538922858,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good summary&nbsp;","listText":"Good summary&nbsp;","text":"Good summary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956579361","repostId":"1196914393","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316256171249744,"gmtCreate":1718240808332,"gmtModify":1718240812178,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The best broker with most information provider of the market updates including specific stocks. They are timely too!","listText":"The best broker with most information provider of the market updates including specific stocks. They are timely too!","text":"The best broker with most information provider of the market updates including specific stocks. They are timely too!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316256171249744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284918429855792,"gmtCreate":1710566337756,"gmtModify":1710567558517,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are also good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","listText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are also good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","text":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are also good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284918429855792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284918201147696,"gmtCreate":1710566295636,"gmtModify":1710567558722,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are good stock market trading strategies too. Good summary.","listText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are good stock market trading strategies too. Good summary.","text":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those are good stock market trading strategies too. Good summary.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284918201147696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284918011740384,"gmtCreate":1710566224738,"gmtModify":1710567558702,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","listText":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","text":"Thanks for sharing. This is not only Dragon Constitution Principle, those good stock market trading strategies. Good summary.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284918011740384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273579253391624,"gmtCreate":1707829604466,"gmtModify":1707829607180,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wish all the tiger investors a fortunate and healthy 2024. The three words are: Confidence Luck Food","listText":"Wish all the tiger investors a fortunate and healthy 2024. The three words are: Confidence Luck Food","text":"Wish all the tiger investors a fortunate and healthy 2024. The three words are: Confidence Luck Food","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273579253391624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956579589,"gmtCreate":1674092634141,"gmtModify":1676538922897,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it time to short?","listText":"Is it time to short?","text":"Is it time to short?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956579589","repostId":"1113221271","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047749569,"gmtCreate":1656979988251,"gmtModify":1676535925334,"author":{"id":"4111540469028152","authorId":"4111540469028152","name":"RASing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3cddd6aaded2b19dcc10ad69c0417db7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111540469028152","authorIdStr":"4111540469028152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good analysis but it is risk to short as Micron may buyback heavily. It&nbsp;is an huge opportunity for Micron&nbsp;as against their recent buyback&nbsp;purchase&nbsp;at $71. Also buying back and building their inventory looks to be their strategy based on their Q&amp;A in earnings call. So be careful while shorting","listText":"Good analysis but it is risk to short as Micron may buyback heavily. It&nbsp;is an huge opportunity for Micron&nbsp;as against their recent buyback&nbsp;purchase&nbsp;at $71. Also buying back and building their inventory looks to be their strategy based on their Q&amp;A in earnings call. So be careful while shorting","text":"Good analysis but it is risk to short as Micron may buyback heavily. It is an huge opportunity for Micron as against their recent buyback purchase at $71. Also buying back and building their inventory looks to be their strategy based on their Q&A in earnings call. So be careful while shorting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047749569","repostId":"2248313616","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2248313616","pubTimestamp":1656933657,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2248313616?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 19:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248313616","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Micron's business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely contin","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Micron&#39;s business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely continue to decline</h2><p>Micron is a great company. It is very competitive with the other semiconductor memory suppliers of the world. Its balance sheet is strong and it generates significant free cash flow. It has been reducing its cost structure, making it more profitable through a cycle. Micron and its peers have been more rational in their capex investment. I look forward to buying MU shares someday, but today I am short into this down cycle.</p><p>It is my opinion that despite the high-tech nature of the manufacturing process, memory is a commodity, and the business is cyclical. Profitability is driven by supply demand balance. As a result, Micron trades like a cyclical commodity stock with low PE ratios. Hence, in order to profit from trading in MU stock, one must trade it like a cyclical commodity business, selling close to the top and buying close to the bottom.</p><p>I have found that MU’s GM is the best indicator to foretell the top and the bottom of the cycle. A chart of MU’s historical GM and share price is shown in Figure 1. The last GM data point is management’s guidance for F4Q, which is 41.5% at the mid-point.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31d31b58e613efc395988429bbdae45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Figure 1: Micron’s historical GM and price. Note: the price in Figure 1 is the closing price the day after earnings print. (Company releases and SA data base)</p><p>Figure 1 shows that historically, MU’s price peaked and then declined after the GM rolled over and declined and bottomed and then increased after the GM bottomed out and increased. However, in the current cycle, the GM has plateaued for four quarters and investors have been selling ahead of the GM decline likely because of the weakening macro outlook. In retrospect, the plateauing of the GM was likely an indication that despite continuous cost reduction, MU is losing pricing power and has to pass along most of its cost savings to its customers in order to maintain market share. This would have been an early indication of slackening demand.</p><h2>Micron&#39;s consumer facing business is down, and cloud, enterprise and auto businesses will probably roll over shortly</h2><p>This down cycle is driven by the macro-induced demand destruction. This is not lost to management and the analysts. The words “macro” and “macroeconomics” appeared no less than ten times in the F3Q2022CC. The macro headwinds are front and center in everyone’s concern.</p><p>Micron reported that the consumer facing businesses (smartphone and consumer PC) are deteriorating rapidly during F3Q. This is something that I have pointed out in my May 3 article. Micron also reported that the data center, enterprise, and auto business are holding up. During the Q&amp;A session, analysts expressed their concerns for the robustness of the data center business as enterprise CIOs are concerned with the macro-outlook and are pulling back on their budget. Analysts also pointed out that Chinese data centers have already pulled back their spending. Further, memory inventory is elevated in the data center supply chain, even higher than before the pandemic. While management did not provide any concrete answers, it is likely that the analysts’ concerns are simply leading indicators of a downturn in the data center business.</p><p>Similarly, when enterprise customers tighten their budget, the enterprise client business will likely decline. The auto business is always very sensitive to the economy. With the macro backdrop deteriorating rapidly, I will not be surprised that the auto business will roll over soon. Hence, it is likely that all of MU’s business segments will decline in the next several quarters, further impacting revenue, GM, profitability and share price.</p><p>Management has indicated that market visibility is worsening. This can be seen also in the lower revenue and GM guidance for F4Q and wider bands for the guidance. Revenue guidance is at $7.2 billion compared to analysts&#39; consensus of $9.02 billion, a big miss. The revenue guidance band is widened from a typical +/- $200 million to +/- $400 million. Similarly, the GM guidance represents a drop of 520 basis point at the mid-point and the band is widened from a typical +/- 1% to +/-1.5%. Further, management refused to predict when this cycle will bottom. Frankly, I do not think that they know because this down cycle is macro-driven and they, like most people, have very limited visibility on the trajectory of the macro.</p><p>I give management credit for doing things that are within their control. Management will cut operating expenses and capex. They will reduce wafer front end utilization in 2023. However, given the long lead time in the manufacturing cycle and the rapidly declining demand, management expects inventory, now at 108 days of sales, to explode by perhaps as much as 20 more days of sales. This will likely further exacerbate the downturn in GM due to potential write downs, lower utilization of wafer front end, and higher COGS carried in inventory. As a result, I expect GM to decline further beyond F4Q, taking MU’s share price down with it along the way.</p><h2>Gross margin is probably the best indicator to watch for the bottom</h2><p>An investor’s natural question is: when will the share price bottom? I do not know, but I will let my GM indicator guide me. I believe it is the best indicator for predicting the turning of the cycle. I will watch both the GM and the rate of decline of the GM. When the rate of decline moderates, it may be time to close my short positions and go long.</p><p>Some readers have commented in my May 3 article that the low PE ratio of MU shares will provide support for its share price. Unfortunately, earnings will likely decline in a down cycle, causing the PE ratio to increase. Hence, I believe that for most cyclical stocks like MU, the time to buy is when PE is sky-high. The time to sell is when the PE is low. Yet others have suggested that MU’s book value of about $43 per share may provide a floor. Unfortunately, cyclical companies may sell below book value in a down cycle. Hence, an investor may not find comfort in the book value to provide support should the macro get very ugly.</p><h2>Macro indicators are useful to gauge the bottom of Micron shares as well</h2><p>The macroeconomic headwinds impacting the worldwide economy are well known: Inflation, Fed tightening, war in Ukraine, Europe mired in a recession and energy crisis, high energy prices, China’s economy is hurting due to the collapse of its property developers, COVID lock-down, and policies against its tech companies. These same headwinds are impacting demand for MU’s memory products worldwide as well.</p><p>Typically, a memory down cycle lasts about eight quarters. With the plateauing of the GM for four quarters, we may be one to four quarters into this down cycle, depending on when you count as the start of the down cycle. Hence, there may be four or seven more quarters to go before this down cycle ends. However, since this cycle is driven by the macro, macro will likely determine the duration of this cycle. Hence, it pays to watch the macro indicators.</p><p>Shown in Figure 2 is a list of macro indicators that I intend to watch in conjunction with my GM indicator. I borrowed this list from Mr. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. You can find his work on this list of indicators here between time stamps 1:36 and 4:32.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/850a70cdefe0fd0376b0a239dac594f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Figure 2: List of macroeconomic indicators to watch for market bottom. (Rosenberg Research)</p><p>When my GM indicator shows an inflection and when most of these indicators in Figure 2 have reached or come close to their respective target values, then it would be time to close my short positions and go long MU shares. Until then, I will let my short positions ride.</p><p>Looking at the indicators in Figure 2, one should not find too much comfort in the forward PE of the S&amp;P 500 being so close to the target value. I believe that downward revision of forward earnings will come in earnest when 3Q earnings are reported starting in several weeks. Downward revision will likely continue for at least the next six months, if not longer, thereby increasing the forward PE ratio.</p><p>The current 10-year treasury yield is 2.889% while the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is 1.64%. For the ratio of the two yield numbers to reach parity, either the treasury yield has to come down a lot or the S&amp;P 500 has to decline a lot. Both will probably happen as the recession advances. This just tells me that there is much downside risk for MU share price, even though it has already declined by 45% from its peak of this cycle.</p><h2>Risks</h2><p>In the last cycle, investors have anticipated the peaking and bottoming of MU’s GM and acted accordingly ahead of the inflection points. Hence, there is a risk that investors may buy before the bottom, thereby reducing the return on my shorts and reducing the potential gain of my future longs. The economy may not worsen as much as I expect and hence MU’s shares may rebound rapidly. Micron, with its share price down significantly, may attract a suitor, causing share price to jump. Selling short always carries a risk of potentially unlimited loss. Buying put option carries a risk of complete loss of one’s capital.</p><h2>Takeaway</h2><p>Micron’s management has guided GM and revenue to decline 520 bps and 16.7%, respectively, QoQ at the mid-point. More importantly, the revenue guidance is 20% below analysts&#39; consensus, a big miss! It is likely that this down cycle will last well into 2023, resulting in Micron’s share price to continue to decline. This down cycle is driven by macro headwinds. Hence, it pays to watch my GM indicator for its inflection as well as some macro indicators to guide the timing of the closing of my shorts and to go long.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-04 19:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521612-micron-technology-deteriorating-gross-margin-points-to-share-price-downside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Micron's business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely continue to declineMicron is a great company. It is very competitive with the other semiconductor memory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521612-micron-technology-deteriorating-gross-margin-points-to-share-price-downside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521612-micron-technology-deteriorating-gross-margin-points-to-share-price-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2248313616","content_text":"Micron's business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely continue to declineMicron is a great company. It is very competitive with the other semiconductor memory suppliers of the world. Its balance sheet is strong and it generates significant free cash flow. It has been reducing its cost structure, making it more profitable through a cycle. Micron and its peers have been more rational in their capex investment. I look forward to buying MU shares someday, but today I am short into this down cycle.It is my opinion that despite the high-tech nature of the manufacturing process, memory is a commodity, and the business is cyclical. Profitability is driven by supply demand balance. As a result, Micron trades like a cyclical commodity stock with low PE ratios. Hence, in order to profit from trading in MU stock, one must trade it like a cyclical commodity business, selling close to the top and buying close to the bottom.I have found that MU’s GM is the best indicator to foretell the top and the bottom of the cycle. A chart of MU’s historical GM and share price is shown in Figure 1. The last GM data point is management’s guidance for F4Q, which is 41.5% at the mid-point.Figure 1: Micron’s historical GM and price. Note: the price in Figure 1 is the closing price the day after earnings print. (Company releases and SA data base)Figure 1 shows that historically, MU’s price peaked and then declined after the GM rolled over and declined and bottomed and then increased after the GM bottomed out and increased. However, in the current cycle, the GM has plateaued for four quarters and investors have been selling ahead of the GM decline likely because of the weakening macro outlook. In retrospect, the plateauing of the GM was likely an indication that despite continuous cost reduction, MU is losing pricing power and has to pass along most of its cost savings to its customers in order to maintain market share. This would have been an early indication of slackening demand.Micron's consumer facing business is down, and cloud, enterprise and auto businesses will probably roll over shortlyThis down cycle is driven by the macro-induced demand destruction. This is not lost to management and the analysts. The words “macro” and “macroeconomics” appeared no less than ten times in the F3Q2022CC. The macro headwinds are front and center in everyone’s concern.Micron reported that the consumer facing businesses (smartphone and consumer PC) are deteriorating rapidly during F3Q. This is something that I have pointed out in my May 3 article. Micron also reported that the data center, enterprise, and auto business are holding up. During the Q&A session, analysts expressed their concerns for the robustness of the data center business as enterprise CIOs are concerned with the macro-outlook and are pulling back on their budget. Analysts also pointed out that Chinese data centers have already pulled back their spending. Further, memory inventory is elevated in the data center supply chain, even higher than before the pandemic. While management did not provide any concrete answers, it is likely that the analysts’ concerns are simply leading indicators of a downturn in the data center business.Similarly, when enterprise customers tighten their budget, the enterprise client business will likely decline. The auto business is always very sensitive to the economy. With the macro backdrop deteriorating rapidly, I will not be surprised that the auto business will roll over soon. Hence, it is likely that all of MU’s business segments will decline in the next several quarters, further impacting revenue, GM, profitability and share price.Management has indicated that market visibility is worsening. This can be seen also in the lower revenue and GM guidance for F4Q and wider bands for the guidance. Revenue guidance is at $7.2 billion compared to analysts' consensus of $9.02 billion, a big miss. The revenue guidance band is widened from a typical +/- $200 million to +/- $400 million. Similarly, the GM guidance represents a drop of 520 basis point at the mid-point and the band is widened from a typical +/- 1% to +/-1.5%. Further, management refused to predict when this cycle will bottom. Frankly, I do not think that they know because this down cycle is macro-driven and they, like most people, have very limited visibility on the trajectory of the macro.I give management credit for doing things that are within their control. Management will cut operating expenses and capex. They will reduce wafer front end utilization in 2023. However, given the long lead time in the manufacturing cycle and the rapidly declining demand, management expects inventory, now at 108 days of sales, to explode by perhaps as much as 20 more days of sales. This will likely further exacerbate the downturn in GM due to potential write downs, lower utilization of wafer front end, and higher COGS carried in inventory. As a result, I expect GM to decline further beyond F4Q, taking MU’s share price down with it along the way.Gross margin is probably the best indicator to watch for the bottomAn investor’s natural question is: when will the share price bottom? I do not know, but I will let my GM indicator guide me. I believe it is the best indicator for predicting the turning of the cycle. I will watch both the GM and the rate of decline of the GM. When the rate of decline moderates, it may be time to close my short positions and go long.Some readers have commented in my May 3 article that the low PE ratio of MU shares will provide support for its share price. Unfortunately, earnings will likely decline in a down cycle, causing the PE ratio to increase. Hence, I believe that for most cyclical stocks like MU, the time to buy is when PE is sky-high. The time to sell is when the PE is low. Yet others have suggested that MU’s book value of about $43 per share may provide a floor. Unfortunately, cyclical companies may sell below book value in a down cycle. Hence, an investor may not find comfort in the book value to provide support should the macro get very ugly.Macro indicators are useful to gauge the bottom of Micron shares as wellThe macroeconomic headwinds impacting the worldwide economy are well known: Inflation, Fed tightening, war in Ukraine, Europe mired in a recession and energy crisis, high energy prices, China’s economy is hurting due to the collapse of its property developers, COVID lock-down, and policies against its tech companies. These same headwinds are impacting demand for MU’s memory products worldwide as well.Typically, a memory down cycle lasts about eight quarters. With the plateauing of the GM for four quarters, we may be one to four quarters into this down cycle, depending on when you count as the start of the down cycle. Hence, there may be four or seven more quarters to go before this down cycle ends. However, since this cycle is driven by the macro, macro will likely determine the duration of this cycle. Hence, it pays to watch the macro indicators.Shown in Figure 2 is a list of macro indicators that I intend to watch in conjunction with my GM indicator. I borrowed this list from Mr. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. You can find his work on this list of indicators here between time stamps 1:36 and 4:32.Figure 2: List of macroeconomic indicators to watch for market bottom. (Rosenberg Research)When my GM indicator shows an inflection and when most of these indicators in Figure 2 have reached or come close to their respective target values, then it would be time to close my short positions and go long MU shares. Until then, I will let my short positions ride.Looking at the indicators in Figure 2, one should not find too much comfort in the forward PE of the S&P 500 being so close to the target value. I believe that downward revision of forward earnings will come in earnest when 3Q earnings are reported starting in several weeks. Downward revision will likely continue for at least the next six months, if not longer, thereby increasing the forward PE ratio.The current 10-year treasury yield is 2.889% while the S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.64%. For the ratio of the two yield numbers to reach parity, either the treasury yield has to come down a lot or the S&P 500 has to decline a lot. Both will probably happen as the recession advances. This just tells me that there is much downside risk for MU share price, even though it has already declined by 45% from its peak of this cycle.RisksIn the last cycle, investors have anticipated the peaking and bottoming of MU’s GM and acted accordingly ahead of the inflection points. Hence, there is a risk that investors may buy before the bottom, thereby reducing the return on my shorts and reducing the potential gain of my future longs. The economy may not worsen as much as I expect and hence MU’s shares may rebound rapidly. Micron, with its share price down significantly, may attract a suitor, causing share price to jump. Selling short always carries a risk of potentially unlimited loss. Buying put option carries a risk of complete loss of one’s capital.TakeawayMicron’s management has guided GM and revenue to decline 520 bps and 16.7%, respectively, QoQ at the mid-point. More importantly, the revenue guidance is 20% below analysts' consensus, a big miss! It is likely that this down cycle will last well into 2023, resulting in Micron’s share price to continue to decline. This down cycle is driven by macro headwinds. Hence, it pays to watch my GM indicator for its inflection as well as some macro indicators to guide the timing of the closing of my shorts and to go long.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}