MarketObserv
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2023-10-22

Online security: Phone practices to protect money from hackers and scammers

Hacker trying hard to steal your hard-earned money There have been several news reports about Singaporeans losing money to online hackers/scammers. SGD1.4 trillion has been lost to scams globally. Singapore victims lost the most on average. This is a risk we cannot ignore. I will talk about the habits and practices I adopt to reduce this hacking/scamming risk. Ensure smartphone settings are set to minimize security risk The most dangerous device to be hacked in my possession is my smartphone. I guard my phone with the same level of security as I did for my rifle during National Service today. If you own an Android phone, this is the most important setting to avoid being hacked and losing money. Disable the "install unknown apps" option. It will prevent accidental installation of malware
Online security: Phone practices to protect money from hackers and scammers
avatarMarketObserv
2023-02-19

Reminiscences of my experiences with FTX (Part 2). I could have escaped 100% but ...

In an earlier post, I wrote about how I made a stable income on FTX before the whole fraud unravelled. It is easy to learn the wrong lessons in investing because an investor can make money despite being very wrong. Customers of FTX who escaped with some profits should not gloat about it. They were wrong and should count themselves as lucky. I was lucky. Regardless of whether the outcome was good or bad, this disaster calls for post-mortem reflections. Right till the end, I never suspected Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) to be a fraud even when the bank run was intense. I was duped. Thankfully, I assumed that crypto was unsafe and was constantly on alert to look out for warning signs. I registered as an FTX customer in 2021. From t
Reminiscences of my experiences with FTX (Part 2). I could have escaped 100% but ...
avatarMarketObserv
2023-01-01

Observations and ranking of financial markets in 2022

To help me track financial markets in a customized format to my liking, I developed websites available for free to the public.Here are the results for 2022.Top ranking of stock indices in 2022 (USD-adjusted). Source: https://market-observer.addvaluedonoevil.com/ranking-of-stock-indices/The ranking of the stock indices is adjusted to USD. An investor can make good gains but the gains can be lost from a depreciating currency. Investors cannot ignore currency movements. Ignoring them will lead to a distorted reflection of the purchasing power made from their investment gains.2022 has been a sea of red for stocks worldwide, as can be seen from the year-to-date performance of global stock indices. It is an achievement if you managed to break even this year in your stock portfolio.Straits Times
Observations and ranking of financial markets in 2022
avatarMarketObserv
2022-12-22

Reminiscences and reflections on my experience with FTX. Why I liked the platform until it collapsed

FTX has been exposed as a fraud and is now bankrupt. I have lost my funds on FTX, although I withdrew most of it before the collapse. I owe it to myself to reflect deeply on this event. I also owe it to my readers because I wrote 2 positive articles(1,2) on FTX in the past. I was not paid a single cent for writing the articles. I wrote them on my financial blog because I was a happy customer of FTX. Some people gloat over the investment losses of others. Some people get resentful when others are profitable. I do not wish to indulge either group. Hence, I do not wish to talk about how much I eventually made or lost from FTX. This information is relevant only to me. The important content is the lessons to be learnt from this disaster. Why was I so enthusiastic about FTX? My experience with F
Reminiscences and reflections on my experience with FTX. Why I liked the platform until it collapsed
avatarMarketObserv
2022-10-04

I exited U.S stocks in time to avoid deep losses but it was still a bad year. Thankfully, I was saved by USD

This has not been a good year for my stock portfolio. This year had been characterized by bear market rallies which whipsawed my stock portfolio (more on that later). It is a year to be remembered for risk management and survival through decisive exits. About 4 months ago in June 2022, I decided to move into China/HK stocks after the market showed some signs of recovery. 3 weeks later, I decided to exit China/HK stocks because my China/HK stock picks performed poorly despite a good performance from China/HK stock indices in June. I wondered what was wrong with me then. Usually, my stock portfolio will move hand in hand with the indices but this time, I lost money despite the indices going up. Either something is wrong with me or the market is telling me there is worse to come. I cannot all
I exited U.S stocks in time to avoid deep losses but it was still a bad year. Thankfully, I was saved by USD
avatarMarketObserv
2022-08-16

Hodlnaut goes out of business. Hundreds of millions in customer deposits frozen. My own experience with Hodlnaut

One day before Singapore's National Day celebrations on 8 Aug 2022, Hodlnaut threw a bombshell on their customers. The company was going under. Hundreds of millions(estimated $500m) in customer deposits have been frozen.I have been following Hodlnaut closely since last year after I signed on as their customer. I even got my wife in as well. I believe I am qualified to give my opinion on what happened with Hodlnaut.How I would react if I were a Hodlnaut victimAlthough I managed to escape from the Hodlnaut disaster, I have had my fair share of gut-wrenching losses from questionable investments. I have given some thought to how I would react in a similar situation and I would like to share it with Hodlnaut victims. If the money lost is not too much (say, a few months of work income), it is be
Hodlnaut goes out of business. Hundreds of millions in customer deposits frozen. My own experience with Hodlnaut
avatarMarketObserv
2022-08-05
I'm honoured that one of my articles are among the top 10 articles in the Tiger Community. Thanks!
@TigerStars:The TOP 10 Most Popular Articles on Tiger Community​
avatarMarketObserv
2022-08-05
Thank you for selecting me as one of the popular Astronauts. I am glad my posts read by the community. Hope they have been useful to the Tiger community.
@TigerStars:Tiger Space Exploration: Popular Authors of the Week (25 July - 31 July)
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2022-08-05
Thank you very much for the compliments. This encourages me to contribute more to the Tigers community.
@TigerStars:Tiger Stars: Invest With @Do_Trading @ShenGuang @MarketObserv
avatarMarketObserv
2022-08-04

Lost $ in China/HK stocks but exited in time to avoid more losses. Looking to buy U.S stocks after last week's rally

2 months ago, China and Hong Kong stocks looked like they were making a recovery and I decided to resume purchase of China/HK stocks in June.https://ttm.financial/post/9056115067It was not a profitable experience for the next 3 weeks. The HK/China stock market did not seem to act right. Maybe something was wrong with me since the China stock indices were going up in June but my portfolio was not showing similar performance. My losses were telling me I was not in sync with the market. I decided to exit the trading positions to protect both my financial and mental capital. For long-term investments, one should give the portfolio more time before exit.https://twitter.com/Market0bserver8/status/1548624639907151874?I was mostly
Lost $ in China/HK stocks but exited in time to avoid more losses. Looking to buy U.S stocks after last week's rally
avatarMarketObserv
2022-07-28

A retired stockbroker reveals to me why most retail investors lose money

I like to chat with retirees, particularly those who used to work in a job where they need to be a bit of a snake oil salesman. It is after they retire that they can be completely honest about their past.A few years ago, a retired stockbroker revealed to me that most of his retail customers lost money. I asked him why. He was in a good position to know the answer since he had access to the buy/sell transactions of his clients.This was what he told me.They patiently held on to losing stocks and impatiently sold winning stocks.If you have several years of experience in the stock market and are still a loser, please check your own past transactions and verify for yourself if this is true. 😁Years ago, I spoke out against contra-trading because I suspected this practice was harming most Singapo
A retired stockbroker reveals to me why most retail investors lose money
avatarMarketObserv
2022-07-10

Losing 99% of funds while short-selling Luna which crashed 99.98% within 1 week

This crypto startup firm, Uprise, lost 99% of its client funds while shorting Luna during its price crash. Luna crashed 99.98% within 1 week from Thursday, 5 May 2022 to the following Thursday, 12 May 2022. Just 1 week ago, Luna's market capitalization was USD28 billion. 1 week later, this USD28b crashed by 99.98%. This is the fastest and biggest price crash in crypto history. A short-seller who shorted Luna should be making huge sums of money in quick time. Yet, Uprise lost 99% shorting Luna.How can this happen?The answer can be found in the hourly price chart of Luna. Luna surged violently by 708% within an hour from 13 May 2022 10 am-11 am. I guess this is the hour that pretty much killed Uprise. Even if Uprise survived this hour, there were several other hourly intervals when Luna
Losing 99% of funds while short-selling Luna which crashed 99.98% within 1 week
avatarMarketObserv
2022-06-12

U.S stock market rally which started 2 weeks ago is dead. China stock market fights back. Resume purchase of China, HK stocks (11 June 2022)

2 weeks ago when the U.S stock market started a mini-rally (27 May 2022), I suspected it was a bear market rally driven by profitable short-sellers covering their shorts. After 7 down weeks, short-sellers would be looking for an excuse to take profit. S&P500 suffered a mini-crash this week dropping 5.05% and it was the worst week of the year since January. This market action showed that it was indeed a bear-market rally.Take a look at the U.S stock indices in the table below.https://market-observer.addvaluedonoevil.com/ranking-of-stock-indices/Take a look at the internal market statistics of the U.S market.https://market-observer.addvaluedonoevil.com/stock-market-internal-statistics/Take a look at the internal market statistics of individual U.S sectors.https://market-observer.addvalue
U.S stock market rally which started 2 weeks ago is dead. China stock market fights back. Resume purchase of China, HK stocks (11 June 2022)
avatarMarketObserv
2022-05-16

My experience with Anchor protocol and thoughts about the TerraLuna ecosystem crash

The TerraLuna ecosystem crash this week was devastating to many crypto investors, from the small retail investors to the huge venture capitalists. No matter how smart you are, as long as you are active in financial markets, big losses from time to time are inevitable. Sometimes, one manages to escape a crash that engulfs people surrounding him. I was one of the luckier ones who got out of Anchor just in time. I am not writing this to gloat about my just-in-time escape from the TerraLuna crash, given the enormous pain suffered by so many investors. I am no better as I had my share of bad investments this year. Since I was heavily invested in UST and Anchor this year, I believe I am qualified to write an article and share so
My experience with Anchor protocol and thoughts about the TerraLuna ecosystem crash
avatarMarketObserv
2022-05-08

Even the resilient Straits Times Index and Singapore market has succumbed to global stock market weakness. Crypto is crushed. USD is king.​

I have been pleasantly surprised by the resilience of the Straits Times Index(STI) and the Singapore stock market for most of the past 2 weeks. There were days when the U.S market plunged but STI declined much lesser than expected (usually less than 0.4%). That was unusual strength. Unfortunately, by the end of this week (6 May 2022), STI finally succumbed to global stock market weakness and joined in the decline.I started getting more aggressive in adding to my Singapore portfolio during theweek of 19Mar2022when STI showed signs of strength. I took some profits off as the market started to weaken this week. Initially, I enjoyed good profits in some palm oil stocks like Bumitama Agri and Golden Agri but Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports caused these stocks to plunge, particularly Bumitam
Even the resilient Straits Times Index and Singapore market has succumbed to global stock market weakness. Crypto is crushed. USD is king.​
avatarMarketObserv
2022-04-29

Indicators I use for gauging stock market momentum - Market Internals (part 2)

This is a continuation of the previous post on TTM where I talked about the software I developed for observing stock indices.Stock indices alone are not representative of a country's stock market as only the big companies with large market capitalization are represented. The vast majority of smaller individual stocks are not.To give a more accurate picture of the entire stock market, I created a website which shows the stock market internals of the world's major economies.Snapshot of stock market internal statistics (https://market-observer.addvaluedonoevil.com/stock-market-internal-statistics/)The percentage of stocks listed in the country's stock exchanges above key moving averages(21day, 50day, 200day) are shown in
Indicators I use for gauging stock market momentum - Market Internals (part 2)
avatarMarketObserv
2022-04-20

Indicators I use for gauging stock market momentum

I am primarily a momentum investor. I seek out the strong country stock markets and pick stocks in them. A good indicator of the strength of a stock market is the country's benchmark stock index.To gauge the strength of a stock index, I use the following indicators; Moving averages 52-week high 52-week low These indicators can be used for any financial security - individual stocks, bonds, commodities, or cryptocurrencies.I created a website showing a table of global stock indices (data is updated daily) ranking their performance based on their price momentum. The indices can be sorted according to their performance with respect to key moving averages(21days, 50days, 200days), 52-week high and 52-week low. From there, you can tell which are the stronger markets.https://market-observer.addva
Indicators I use for gauging stock market momentum
avatarMarketObserv
2022-04-11

The inverted yield curve has not been useful for predicting bear markets in a timely fashion in the past 40 years. Here's the data.

The yield curve has inverted in U.S Treasury bond markets in Apr2022. This is big news in financial media. Why is this a significant event? According to experts, the inverted yield curve is one of the best predictors of impending economic recession. However, is it a good predictor of an equity bear market?As an investor, the question that interests me "Is the inverted yield curve a good predictor for an impending equity bear market in a timely fashion?" The keyword here is timely. Being early in financial markets is as good as being wrong even if the prediction turns out to be right eventually. It is useless in making predictions about bear markets, selling out early, only to see the market rise another 30% before the bear market finally sets in.Based on the number of news a
The inverted yield curve has not been useful for predicting bear markets in a timely fashion in the past 40 years. Here's the data.
avatarMarketObserv
2022-04-09

I lost 78% within 1 week of purchase in a Russian equity fund. Here are the lessons learnt.

I bought a Russian equity fund(JRS listed on the London stock exchange) when the Russian MOEX stock index crashed over 40% in a single day after Russia invaded Ukraine. What happened a week later can best be described by this picture. Money on fire The fund lost 78% of its value from my purchase price within 1 week. I doubt anyone can beat this loss record in terms of speed and percentage loss. I am a real champion in this regard. If the market is making you feel like an idiot this year, then my champion record would be a good consolation to you. Money lost in such speed and magnitude carries lessons to be learnt. I looked back at the reasons I bought the equity fund in the first place. Odds are on my side for a quick rebound after a 45% crash in a single day. Buying when others are
I lost 78% within 1 week of purchase in a Russian equity fund. Here are the lessons learnt.

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