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2022-04-28

Cool and amazing stuff

Which Metaverse Stocks Hold the Most Promise?

2022-04-22

Thank you

Block: Great Company But A Tricky Valuation

2022-04-22

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ looking good

2022-04-21

Hope for the best

Nestle CEO Says Growth Target Conservative, Margin More Challenging

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As exciting as it is to want to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/which-metaverse-stocks-hold-most-promise/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Metaverse Stocks Hold the Most Promise?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Metaverse Stocks Hold the Most Promise?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-28 10:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/which-metaverse-stocks-hold-most-promise/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s been many months now since Mark Zuckerberg single-handedly turned the metaverse from an abstract sci-fi concept to one of the hottest trends in the tech space. As exciting as it is to want to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/which-metaverse-stocks-hold-most-promise/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/which-metaverse-stocks-hold-most-promise/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118495515","content_text":"It’s been many months now since Mark Zuckerberg single-handedly turned the metaverse from an abstract sci-fi concept to one of the hottest trends in the tech space. As exciting as it is to want to invest in the next digital frontier that could include immerse virtual and augmented reality experiences, it can be tough to spot the biggest winners.Though Meta’s company name makes it an obvious choice, it may not even be a frontrunner once VR and AR are ready to go mainstream and begin the process of slowly phasing out smartphones.In this piece, we’ll have a sneak peek at three top metaverse stocks using Tipranks’ Stock Comparison Tool. We’ll also check in with Wall Street to gauge today’s slate of valuations.Meta Platforms (FB)Meta Platforms may very well be viewed as a pioneer in the virtual worlds of tomorrow, with billions committed to building the metaverse as Zuckerberg sees it. Indeed, Zuckerberg’s metaverse initiatives could pay massive dividends in as little as five years. Still, Meta remains primarily a social-media company.Arguably, Meta may not have the best video-gaming foundation for the big metaverse transition. Indeed, video gaming and experiences are likely to be a main attraction for the metaverse. In that department, Meta falls short.However, it’s hard to deny Meta’s positioning on the hardware front. The acquisition of Oculus gives Meta a nice edge as far as headsets are concerned. Zuckerberg and his “Metamates” have since improved the feature set and functionality of Oculus headsets with the latest budget-friendly Oculus Quest.In time, I expect Meta to add gradual improvements to the Quest. Still, the company’s premier headset in Project Cambria (Oculus Quest Pro) appears most exciting. Though expensive, such premium headsets likely hold the most potential over the long haul, given the greater degree of immersion. Further, VR sickness is a problem that may be soothed with higher-end hardware and innovations.Indeed, pricier hardware may prove a worthy investment if the software experiences are there. In terms of hardware innovation, it’s tough to stack up against Meta. It’s been in the game for quite a while, and it could make a significant dent once the metaverse is finally ready for prime time.After a rocky start to the year, FB stock finds itself down around 53% from its high. A great entry point for those looking for metaverse exposure.Still, with weakening DAU (Daily Active User) numbers over at Facebook, the stock is likely to trade more on the performance of its social-media Family of Apps than it is over the news surrounding its metaverse ambitions.Wall Street analysts remain incredibly bullish, with an averageMeta Platforms price forecast of $309.08, implying ~77% upside from Wednesday’s closing price.Microsoft (MSFT)Microsoft is a behemoth in the enterprise segment, but its video-gaming powerhouse over at Xbox should not go ignored. The recent acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI) makes Microsoft’s gaming empire one of the largest in the world. With such a powerful, growing presence in video gaming, Microsoft could enjoy smooth sailing into the era of the metaverse.Undoubtedly, Microsoft is changing the game (pun intended) in the video-gaming world with services such as the Xbox Game Pass subscription service and Xbox Cloud Gaming (formerly xCloud). With such services, the barriers to entry into gaming have effectively been reduced to zero.With Xbox Game Pass and Cloud Gaming, one no longer needs to buy expensive games for $79.99 upfront, nor does one need to purchase a costly Xbox console. In essence, Microsoft may have singlehandedly opened up triple-A gaming to everybody.As we move closer to the metaverse, I’d look for Microsoft to combine its VR talent with its incredible gaming division to create an immersive offering that may be difficult to stack up against.If gaming holds the keys to the metaverse, Microsoft could evolve to become a leader. If anything, Microsoft may be a better bet than Meta, given how gaming will probably be the first stepping stone into virtual realms. Of course, work and other experiences will follow. Microsoft also stands out in the “metaverse for work” department with its Teams Mesh virtual office place offering.Though the early days of the metaverse will be less of a needle-mover for Microsoft versus some of its peers, given its diversified revenue stream, I am enticed by the firm’s foundation. It looks best-in-breed. If anything, Microsoft could be the one firm that leads us into the metaverse.Wall Street analysts remain bullish, with an averageMicrosoft price target of $371.13, implying 37.4% upside from Wednesday’s close.Nvidia (NVDA)Finally, we have graphics-hardware maker Nvidia, which refers to the metaverse as we know it as the “omniverse.” Undeniably, it’s hard not to get excited when CEO Jensen Huang steps on stage, delivering his views on the future of technology. Undoubtedly, many were incredibly excited over the potential for Nvidia to power the digital realms of tomorrow.Nvidia’s Omniverse platform genuinely looks next-generation. The company’s Omniverse isn’t just for video gaming, though. With the unveiling of Omniverse Computing Platform Nvidia OVX at the company’s exciting GTC 2022 event, the industrial applications of Nvidia’s Omniverse are also intriguing.With so many exciting innovations from Omniverse to next-generation AI technologies, you can expect to pay a lofty premium for NVDA stock. It is the priciest stock on this list.Despite the nearly 18-times sales multiple, Wall Street analysts remain as bullish as ever, with an averageNvidia price target of $336.57, implying ~83% upside from current levels.ConclusionThe metaverse is a trend to keep tabs on over the next decade. Many winners will be crowned, with the market estimated to be worth around $947.1 billion by 2030, implying a CAGR of over 38%.At today’s valuations, Wall Street analysts see the highest upside potential in Nvidia. Indeed, many such analysts view the firm’s innovative capabilities as more than worth the hefty price of admission.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082758320,"gmtCreate":1650606863881,"gmtModify":1676534762996,"author":{"id":"4113647981301142","authorId":"4113647981301142","authorIdStr":"4113647981301142","name":"Sarusms","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113647981301142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> looking good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> looking good","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ looking good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/626d1ba69be3123dc0598340d1068c7e","width":"1125","height":"2712"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082758320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082751379,"gmtCreate":1650606683223,"gmtModify":1676534762972,"author":{"id":"4113647981301142","authorId":"4113647981301142","authorIdStr":"4113647981301142","name":"Sarusms","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113647981301142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you","listText":"Thank you","text":"Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082751379","repostId":"2229131033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2229131033","pubTimestamp":1650599017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2229131033?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-22 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Block: Great Company But A Tricky Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229131033","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntroductionMy thesis is that Block (NYSE:SQ) is very help","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/928c29b7aa97853e2800b02d4f3c480a\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</p><p></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>My thesis is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a> (NYSE:SQ) is very helpful for society but their valuation is tricky. As a personal anecdote, I found Square Seller to be extremely helpful on a recent skiing trip. Getting food and drinks at Mammoth Brewing Company was done with a QR code menu/shopping cart and a Square checkout that confirmed my identity with a verification code such that I didn’t have to re-enter credit card details. This is similar to the way in which QR codes are used in China with Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) and Alipay which is partially owned by Alibaba (BABA). I think Block is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the companies that will benefit as we continue moving to this type of model in the future.</p><h2>Great Company</h2><p>In the same way that Shopify (SHOP) started by helping small and underserved online merchants before moving up market, Square Seller started by servicing a base of micro merchants which are those with annual payment volume of less than $125,000. Block is one of the few companies that has been able to fend off Amazon (AMZN). Block co-founder Jim McKelvey explains that Block’s innovation stack allowed them to come out on top when Amazon tried to enter their space with a lower price.</p><p>Former CFO Sarah Friar used to talk about the fact that sellers could onboard in 5 minutes or less by using transparent pricing in the app store. She noted that data science and machine learning let Square Seller skip credit checks and accept 95% of sellers. At the March 2016 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> Technology, Media &amp; Telecom Conference, she explained that Square Seller does much more than just processing:</p><blockquote>Well, first and foremost most of those folks are talking about as payment processors, they&#39;re only doing one thing in the value chain. So as a merchant, you still have to go get a payment processor, get a terminal provider, you have to get a point of sale (“POS”) provider, you have to get an analytics provider and so they leave the merchant to stitch together everything to do commerce. Square thinks about it because we do everything for you.</blockquote><p>At the May 2016 JPMorgan Technology, Media and Telecom Conference, CEO Jack Dorsey talked about the innovation from the prior 7 years starting with the initial idea of enabling merchants to make sales by accepting credit cards:</p><blockquote>So we made a little piece of hardware that allowed you to plug it into the headphone jack of a phone, and that enabled a seller to start swiping cards. And we made it so that you could go to the app store, you could download Square, and we would send you free hardware. You could actually purchase it in the Apple Store. And you had everything you needed to actually start and to run your business.</blockquote><p>CEO Dorsey went on to explain that Square Seller has always kept up with the preferred payment methods of the time, going from magstripe cards to more secure payments with Europay, Mastercard and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> (“EMV”) chip cards and near field communication (“NFC”). Once they were satisfied with processing, CEO Dorsey talked about building point-of-sale (“POS”), Square Capital and Square Payroll. Former CFO Friar chimed in at the same JPMorgan conference, noting that Square Loan which was then Square Capital helps merchants who are underserved by legacy banks. She noted that the average Square Capital loan size at the time was just $6,000 to $10,000 which is much smaller than the loan amounts legacy banks like to use.</p><p>In the May 2017 Investor Day Webcast, CEO Dorsey pointed out that legacy payment providers are built on COBOL and they don’t use the newest tech. He said Square Seller won by focusing on speed:</p><blockquote>That&#39;s where I think we&#39;ve really won, is that we focused multiple times around just making it faster for sellers to get in, #1. So under 2 minutes to sign up, to start accepting credit cards, which was a 2-week process before us. The 2.75%, one rate instead of digging through this byzantine maze of a rate table which took hours and accountants for a seller to really demystify. Demanding that our funds would be accessible to sellers the next business day and then making that even better by enabling them to go instant as well.</blockquote><p>In the 2Q18 call, CEO Dorsey emphasized the ways in which Square Seller makes it easy for both small and large restaurants to conduct business:</p><blockquote>60% of Square for Restaurants sellers have self-onboarded, and this is rather unusual in the industry. Typically, restaurants go to the point-of-sale provider, and they need help to set everything up. That includes their table map, all the menus, basically all the operations that they need to focus on to run their restaurant. They actually need a third-party to help them out. So the ability for a restaurant to take that on and self-onboard and do all their menus, do all their table layout with our software is pretty awesome because it creates efficiencies. And the other great thing is that our restaurant seller average annualized GPV is over $650,000. So these are not small.</blockquote><p>At the May 2019 JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference, CEO Dorsey talks about the way Cash App acts as a customer acquisition tool. Other payroll providers focus on the employer but Block focuses on the employees by putting them in control of how they get their money. Employees can get instant access to their paycheck with Cash App. We see at data.ai that Cash App is consistently in the top 10:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07b02d8a6a967d85c0f3d7646308a8f8\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Cash App Popularity (data.ai)</p><p></p><p>Block recently completed their acquisition of Afterpay which will help merchants give consumers more flexibility with buy now, pay later (“BNPL”) options at checkout.</p><h2>Tricky Valuation</h2><p>There is a tremendous opportunity for international growth; for 2021, $17.1 billion of the $17.7 billion total revenue came from the U.S.</p><p>We need to have an idea of long-term margins in order to put together a valuation range. Page 165 of the 2017 Investor Day shows an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35% to 40% as a long-term target:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe7cbaa56998d53c68b339de0040dcda\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Long-term adjusted EBITDA margins (2017 Investor Day)</p><p></p><p>This was back before Cash App was a meaningful part of the business and eventually management stopped showing the adjusted EBITDA margin consistently in the shareholder letters. The last time I saw it displayed prominently was in the 2Q18 letter when the bulk of the business was still on the Square Seller side:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9c89f8c96a4369fb6cfea7fa5438796\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Adjusted EBITDA (2Q18 letter)</p><p></p><p>Block’s adjusted EBITDA ignores stock-based compensation (&#34;SBC&#34;) so this margin is misleading. The letters to shareholders continually focus on adjusted EBITDA and this is a facile way of looking at the economics seeing as stock-based compensation is a real and ongoing expense. Here is the adjusted EBITDA table in the 2021 10-K:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/445813c9f4706d6c90aaae99e81656be\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Adjusted EBITDA breakdown (2021 10-K)</p><p></p><p>The adjusted EBITDA numbers don’t look nearly as good when we put stock-based compensation back in place. For example, the $1,014 million adjusted EBITDA for 2021 becomes just $406 million when we consider the weight of the $608 million stock-based compensation. The $135 million for 2021 depreciation and amortization is a real economic expense too. Sometimes EBITDA is useful for real estate companies with aggressive depreciation or with serial acquirers when accounting amortization isn’t the same as economic amortization but that isn’t the case here. I don’t understand why management focuses on adjusted EBITDA; it doesn’t make sense.</p><p>Despite the fact that we don’t have a direct use for the adjusted EBITDA numbers, they can be indirectly helpful if we make assumptions for stock-based compensation and depreciation/amortization. Looking at 2021, the payments business has a 44% gross margin [[$4.8 billion - $2.7 billion]/$4.8 billion] and the subscription business has an 81% gross margin [[$2.7 billion - $0.5 billion]/$2.7 billion]. I don’t see a detailed breakdown between Cash App and Square Seller beyond the gross margin level in the 2021 10-K but the 3Q19 letter says the following:</p><blockquote>Our Seller ecosystem has achieved strong profitability with an expected Adjusted EBITDA margin of nearly 30% for full year 2019. Given this profitability and our 3- to 4- quarter payback period, we are increasing our investment in go-to-market initiatives to drive continued growth.</blockquote><p>Looking at gross profit from the last 3 years and then trying to think about what it will be like 5 years from now can be helpful for a valuation framework. Once the gross profit levels are estimated, it makes sense to estimate owner earnings with some long-term margin assumptions. Cash App gross profit has skyrocketed from $458 million in 2019 to $1,226 million in 2020 and all the way up to $2,071 million in 2021. Square Seller gross profit growth has been more modest, going from $1,390 million in 2019 to $1,508 million in 2020 and $2,317 million in 2021:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe1b53ade71c5b8e7476d6793e1fe6d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit breakdown (2021 10-K)</p><p></p><p>Per GAAP requirements, Bitcoin revenue is reported on a gross level and the massive Bitcoin revenue figure above is not as meaningful as one might expect because the cost of Bitcoin revenue is large as well. Looking at 2021 for example, Bitcoin revenue was $10 billion but the Bitcoin cost of revenue was $9.8 billion for a spread of just $0.2 billion:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f762a162bf2ee0a09b3e7b2e63baf4a7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bitcoin cost of revenue (2021 10-K)</p><p></p><p>Though not a direct driver with respect to gross profit, Bitcoin creates utility that drives engagement as noted by CFO Amrita Ahuja at the November 2019 Citi Conference:</p><blockquote>And we&#39;ve seen within the Cash App ecosystem self-reinforcement on that, where the introduction of Bitcoin, as an example, is not a huge monetization driver in and of itself, but it becomes an engagement driver. And engagement is the rising tide that lifts all boats. Bitcoin users are twice as likely to have and use their Cash Card as non-Bitcoin users, which is not necessarily intuitive, but when you see the strength of the ecosystem, these products reinforce each other and create daily utility, which makes the Cash App top of mind for our customers, which then creates an overall monetization stream across Cash App. Today, we have half a dozen revenue streams within Cash App, which enables us to reinvest back into the products.</blockquote><p>Per the 10-K, hardly any of the stock-based compensation is on the cost of revenue; it is almost entirely on the gross profit:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103e187c11502f2930da0eb5064242a7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SBC breakdown (2021 10-K)</p><p></p><p>Stock-based compensation as a percentage of gross profit was 16.1% [$297.7 million/$1,848.1 million], 14.5% [$397.1 million/$2,733.4 million] and 13.7% [$607.6 million/$4,419.8 million] for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. I’m optimistic that it can get down to 10% of gross profit eventually.</p><p>Overall gross profit growth was 61.7% from 2020 to 2021 and the segment breakdown was 69% growth for Cash App and 54% growth for Square Seller. If gross profit can continue growing at a prodigious level then one can make the argument that today’s valuation should be based on a prodigious earnings multiple as well. If Block wasn’t managing the company for growth then I believe the income statement expense lines would be substantially lower such that roughly 20% to 25% of gross profit would make its way down to net earnings. Based on the 2021 gross profit of $4.4 billion, this translates to about $1 billion of steady-state net earnings. Today’s enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap of $62.5 billion based on 580 million shares outstanding [518,361,474 Class A + 61,696,578 Class B] as of February 18th and the April 21st market price of $107.71 per share. In effect, this is kind of like a P/E ratio of 63 and if we can expect 50% growth then it is sort of like a PEG ratio of a little more than 1 and a quarter. It’s hard to say if Mr. Market is right about today’s valuation. Block investors should watch the upcoming Investor Day on May 18th to see how well management spells out specifics for future economics. The 5-year growth rate of gross profit is very important as is the long-term net profit margin including the impact from stock-based compensation.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Block: Great Company But A Tricky Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlock: Great Company But A Tricky Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-22 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502862-block-great-company-but-tricky-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntroductionMy thesis is that Block (NYSE:SQ) is very helpful for society but their valuation is tricky. As a personal anecdote, I found Square Seller to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502862-block-great-company-but-tricky-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","SQ":"Block","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502862-block-great-company-but-tricky-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2229131033","content_text":"hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntroductionMy thesis is that Block (NYSE:SQ) is very helpful for society but their valuation is tricky. As a personal anecdote, I found Square Seller to be extremely helpful on a recent skiing trip. Getting food and drinks at Mammoth Brewing Company was done with a QR code menu/shopping cart and a Square checkout that confirmed my identity with a verification code such that I didn’t have to re-enter credit card details. This is similar to the way in which QR codes are used in China with Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) and Alipay which is partially owned by Alibaba (BABA). I think Block is one of the companies that will benefit as we continue moving to this type of model in the future.Great CompanyIn the same way that Shopify (SHOP) started by helping small and underserved online merchants before moving up market, Square Seller started by servicing a base of micro merchants which are those with annual payment volume of less than $125,000. Block is one of the few companies that has been able to fend off Amazon (AMZN). Block co-founder Jim McKelvey explains that Block’s innovation stack allowed them to come out on top when Amazon tried to enter their space with a lower price.Former CFO Sarah Friar used to talk about the fact that sellers could onboard in 5 minutes or less by using transparent pricing in the app store. She noted that data science and machine learning let Square Seller skip credit checks and accept 95% of sellers. At the March 2016 Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, she explained that Square Seller does much more than just processing:Well, first and foremost most of those folks are talking about as payment processors, they're only doing one thing in the value chain. So as a merchant, you still have to go get a payment processor, get a terminal provider, you have to get a point of sale (“POS”) provider, you have to get an analytics provider and so they leave the merchant to stitch together everything to do commerce. Square thinks about it because we do everything for you.At the May 2016 JPMorgan Technology, Media and Telecom Conference, CEO Jack Dorsey talked about the innovation from the prior 7 years starting with the initial idea of enabling merchants to make sales by accepting credit cards:So we made a little piece of hardware that allowed you to plug it into the headphone jack of a phone, and that enabled a seller to start swiping cards. And we made it so that you could go to the app store, you could download Square, and we would send you free hardware. You could actually purchase it in the Apple Store. And you had everything you needed to actually start and to run your business.CEO Dorsey went on to explain that Square Seller has always kept up with the preferred payment methods of the time, going from magstripe cards to more secure payments with Europay, Mastercard and Visa (“EMV”) chip cards and near field communication (“NFC”). Once they were satisfied with processing, CEO Dorsey talked about building point-of-sale (“POS”), Square Capital and Square Payroll. Former CFO Friar chimed in at the same JPMorgan conference, noting that Square Loan which was then Square Capital helps merchants who are underserved by legacy banks. She noted that the average Square Capital loan size at the time was just $6,000 to $10,000 which is much smaller than the loan amounts legacy banks like to use.In the May 2017 Investor Day Webcast, CEO Dorsey pointed out that legacy payment providers are built on COBOL and they don’t use the newest tech. He said Square Seller won by focusing on speed:That's where I think we've really won, is that we focused multiple times around just making it faster for sellers to get in, #1. So under 2 minutes to sign up, to start accepting credit cards, which was a 2-week process before us. The 2.75%, one rate instead of digging through this byzantine maze of a rate table which took hours and accountants for a seller to really demystify. Demanding that our funds would be accessible to sellers the next business day and then making that even better by enabling them to go instant as well.In the 2Q18 call, CEO Dorsey emphasized the ways in which Square Seller makes it easy for both small and large restaurants to conduct business:60% of Square for Restaurants sellers have self-onboarded, and this is rather unusual in the industry. Typically, restaurants go to the point-of-sale provider, and they need help to set everything up. That includes their table map, all the menus, basically all the operations that they need to focus on to run their restaurant. They actually need a third-party to help them out. So the ability for a restaurant to take that on and self-onboard and do all their menus, do all their table layout with our software is pretty awesome because it creates efficiencies. And the other great thing is that our restaurant seller average annualized GPV is over $650,000. So these are not small.At the May 2019 JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference, CEO Dorsey talks about the way Cash App acts as a customer acquisition tool. Other payroll providers focus on the employer but Block focuses on the employees by putting them in control of how they get their money. Employees can get instant access to their paycheck with Cash App. We see at data.ai that Cash App is consistently in the top 10:Cash App Popularity (data.ai)Block recently completed their acquisition of Afterpay which will help merchants give consumers more flexibility with buy now, pay later (“BNPL”) options at checkout.Tricky ValuationThere is a tremendous opportunity for international growth; for 2021, $17.1 billion of the $17.7 billion total revenue came from the U.S.We need to have an idea of long-term margins in order to put together a valuation range. Page 165 of the 2017 Investor Day shows an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35% to 40% as a long-term target:Long-term adjusted EBITDA margins (2017 Investor Day)This was back before Cash App was a meaningful part of the business and eventually management stopped showing the adjusted EBITDA margin consistently in the shareholder letters. The last time I saw it displayed prominently was in the 2Q18 letter when the bulk of the business was still on the Square Seller side:Adjusted EBITDA (2Q18 letter)Block’s adjusted EBITDA ignores stock-based compensation (\"SBC\") so this margin is misleading. The letters to shareholders continually focus on adjusted EBITDA and this is a facile way of looking at the economics seeing as stock-based compensation is a real and ongoing expense. Here is the adjusted EBITDA table in the 2021 10-K:Adjusted EBITDA breakdown (2021 10-K)The adjusted EBITDA numbers don’t look nearly as good when we put stock-based compensation back in place. For example, the $1,014 million adjusted EBITDA for 2021 becomes just $406 million when we consider the weight of the $608 million stock-based compensation. The $135 million for 2021 depreciation and amortization is a real economic expense too. Sometimes EBITDA is useful for real estate companies with aggressive depreciation or with serial acquirers when accounting amortization isn’t the same as economic amortization but that isn’t the case here. I don’t understand why management focuses on adjusted EBITDA; it doesn’t make sense.Despite the fact that we don’t have a direct use for the adjusted EBITDA numbers, they can be indirectly helpful if we make assumptions for stock-based compensation and depreciation/amortization. Looking at 2021, the payments business has a 44% gross margin [[$4.8 billion - $2.7 billion]/$4.8 billion] and the subscription business has an 81% gross margin [[$2.7 billion - $0.5 billion]/$2.7 billion]. I don’t see a detailed breakdown between Cash App and Square Seller beyond the gross margin level in the 2021 10-K but the 3Q19 letter says the following:Our Seller ecosystem has achieved strong profitability with an expected Adjusted EBITDA margin of nearly 30% for full year 2019. Given this profitability and our 3- to 4- quarter payback period, we are increasing our investment in go-to-market initiatives to drive continued growth.Looking at gross profit from the last 3 years and then trying to think about what it will be like 5 years from now can be helpful for a valuation framework. Once the gross profit levels are estimated, it makes sense to estimate owner earnings with some long-term margin assumptions. Cash App gross profit has skyrocketed from $458 million in 2019 to $1,226 million in 2020 and all the way up to $2,071 million in 2021. Square Seller gross profit growth has been more modest, going from $1,390 million in 2019 to $1,508 million in 2020 and $2,317 million in 2021:Gross profit breakdown (2021 10-K)Per GAAP requirements, Bitcoin revenue is reported on a gross level and the massive Bitcoin revenue figure above is not as meaningful as one might expect because the cost of Bitcoin revenue is large as well. Looking at 2021 for example, Bitcoin revenue was $10 billion but the Bitcoin cost of revenue was $9.8 billion for a spread of just $0.2 billion:Bitcoin cost of revenue (2021 10-K)Though not a direct driver with respect to gross profit, Bitcoin creates utility that drives engagement as noted by CFO Amrita Ahuja at the November 2019 Citi Conference:And we've seen within the Cash App ecosystem self-reinforcement on that, where the introduction of Bitcoin, as an example, is not a huge monetization driver in and of itself, but it becomes an engagement driver. And engagement is the rising tide that lifts all boats. Bitcoin users are twice as likely to have and use their Cash Card as non-Bitcoin users, which is not necessarily intuitive, but when you see the strength of the ecosystem, these products reinforce each other and create daily utility, which makes the Cash App top of mind for our customers, which then creates an overall monetization stream across Cash App. Today, we have half a dozen revenue streams within Cash App, which enables us to reinvest back into the products.Per the 10-K, hardly any of the stock-based compensation is on the cost of revenue; it is almost entirely on the gross profit:SBC breakdown (2021 10-K)Stock-based compensation as a percentage of gross profit was 16.1% [$297.7 million/$1,848.1 million], 14.5% [$397.1 million/$2,733.4 million] and 13.7% [$607.6 million/$4,419.8 million] for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. I’m optimistic that it can get down to 10% of gross profit eventually.Overall gross profit growth was 61.7% from 2020 to 2021 and the segment breakdown was 69% growth for Cash App and 54% growth for Square Seller. If gross profit can continue growing at a prodigious level then one can make the argument that today’s valuation should be based on a prodigious earnings multiple as well. If Block wasn’t managing the company for growth then I believe the income statement expense lines would be substantially lower such that roughly 20% to 25% of gross profit would make its way down to net earnings. Based on the 2021 gross profit of $4.4 billion, this translates to about $1 billion of steady-state net earnings. Today’s enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap of $62.5 billion based on 580 million shares outstanding [518,361,474 Class A + 61,696,578 Class B] as of February 18th and the April 21st market price of $107.71 per share. In effect, this is kind of like a P/E ratio of 63 and if we can expect 50% growth then it is sort of like a PEG ratio of a little more than 1 and a quarter. It’s hard to say if Mr. Market is right about today’s valuation. Block investors should watch the upcoming Investor Day on May 18th to see how well management spells out specifics for future economics. The 5-year growth rate of gross profit is very important as is the long-term net profit margin including the impact from stock-based compensation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082171786,"gmtCreate":1650546003859,"gmtModify":1676534748372,"author":{"id":"4113647981301142","authorId":"4113647981301142","authorIdStr":"4113647981301142","name":"Sarusms","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113647981301142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Hope for the best","listText":"&nbsp;Hope for the best","text":"Hope for the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082171786","repostId":"1178936813","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178936813","pubTimestamp":1650544379,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178936813?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-21 20:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nestle CEO Says Growth Target Conservative, Margin More Challenging","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178936813","media":"Reuters","summary":"Nestle's organic growth target of around 5% this year is \"conservative\" while the margin target has ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nestle&#39;s organic growth target of around 5% this year is &#34;conservative&#34; while the margin target has become more challenging due to inflationary pressures, the food group&#39;s chief executive said on Thursday.</p><p>&#34;Our start into the year was stronger than expected, and we believe that our organic sales growth guidance is conservative at this point,&#34; Mark Schneider said in a call on the group&#39;s first-quarter sales.</p><p>&#34;At the same time, inflationary pressures have increased a lot since then and in ways that were not foreseeable at that time. As a result of this change in context, our guidance range of 17% to 17.5% for the underlying trading operating profit margin has become more challenging than before when we described it as conservative,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601381805984","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nestle CEO Says Growth Target Conservative, Margin More Challenging</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNestle CEO Says Growth Target Conservative, Margin More Challenging\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-21 20:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nestle-ceo-says-growth-target-122134731.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nestle's organic growth target of around 5% this year is \"conservative\" while the margin target has become more challenging due to inflationary pressures, the food group's chief executive said on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nestle-ceo-says-growth-target-122134731.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NSRGY":"雀巢"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nestle-ceo-says-growth-target-122134731.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178936813","content_text":"Nestle's organic growth target of around 5% this year is \"conservative\" while the margin target has become more challenging due to inflationary pressures, the food group's chief executive said on Thursday.\"Our start into the year was stronger than expected, and we believe that our organic sales growth guidance is conservative at this point,\" Mark Schneider said in a call on the group's first-quarter sales.\"At the same time, inflationary pressures have increased a lot since then and in ways that were not foreseeable at that time. As a result of this change in context, our guidance range of 17% to 17.5% for the underlying trading operating profit margin has become more challenging than before when we described it as conservative,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9060812543,"gmtCreate":1651119714376,"gmtModify":1676534854432,"author":{"id":"4113647981301142","authorId":"4113647981301142","authorIdStr":"4113647981301142","name":"Sarusms","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113647981301142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool and amazing stuff","listText":"Cool and amazing stuff","text":"Cool and amazing stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060812543","repostId":"1118495515","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118495515","pubTimestamp":1651114659,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118495515?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 10:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Which Metaverse Stocks Hold the Most Promise?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118495515","media":"TipRanks","summary":"It’s been many months now since Mark Zuckerberg single-handedly turned the metaverse from an abstrac","content":"<div>\n<p>It’s been many months now since Mark Zuckerberg single-handedly turned the metaverse from an abstract sci-fi concept to one of the hottest trends in the tech space. As exciting as it is to want to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/which-metaverse-stocks-hold-most-promise/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Metaverse Stocks Hold the Most Promise?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Metaverse Stocks Hold the Most Promise?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-28 10:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/which-metaverse-stocks-hold-most-promise/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s been many months now since Mark Zuckerberg single-handedly turned the metaverse from an abstract sci-fi concept to one of the hottest trends in the tech space. As exciting as it is to want to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/which-metaverse-stocks-hold-most-promise/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/which-metaverse-stocks-hold-most-promise/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118495515","content_text":"It’s been many months now since Mark Zuckerberg single-handedly turned the metaverse from an abstract sci-fi concept to one of the hottest trends in the tech space. As exciting as it is to want to invest in the next digital frontier that could include immerse virtual and augmented reality experiences, it can be tough to spot the biggest winners.Though Meta’s company name makes it an obvious choice, it may not even be a frontrunner once VR and AR are ready to go mainstream and begin the process of slowly phasing out smartphones.In this piece, we’ll have a sneak peek at three top metaverse stocks using Tipranks’ Stock Comparison Tool. We’ll also check in with Wall Street to gauge today’s slate of valuations.Meta Platforms (FB)Meta Platforms may very well be viewed as a pioneer in the virtual worlds of tomorrow, with billions committed to building the metaverse as Zuckerberg sees it. Indeed, Zuckerberg’s metaverse initiatives could pay massive dividends in as little as five years. Still, Meta remains primarily a social-media company.Arguably, Meta may not have the best video-gaming foundation for the big metaverse transition. Indeed, video gaming and experiences are likely to be a main attraction for the metaverse. In that department, Meta falls short.However, it’s hard to deny Meta’s positioning on the hardware front. The acquisition of Oculus gives Meta a nice edge as far as headsets are concerned. Zuckerberg and his “Metamates” have since improved the feature set and functionality of Oculus headsets with the latest budget-friendly Oculus Quest.In time, I expect Meta to add gradual improvements to the Quest. Still, the company’s premier headset in Project Cambria (Oculus Quest Pro) appears most exciting. Though expensive, such premium headsets likely hold the most potential over the long haul, given the greater degree of immersion. Further, VR sickness is a problem that may be soothed with higher-end hardware and innovations.Indeed, pricier hardware may prove a worthy investment if the software experiences are there. In terms of hardware innovation, it’s tough to stack up against Meta. It’s been in the game for quite a while, and it could make a significant dent once the metaverse is finally ready for prime time.After a rocky start to the year, FB stock finds itself down around 53% from its high. A great entry point for those looking for metaverse exposure.Still, with weakening DAU (Daily Active User) numbers over at Facebook, the stock is likely to trade more on the performance of its social-media Family of Apps than it is over the news surrounding its metaverse ambitions.Wall Street analysts remain incredibly bullish, with an averageMeta Platforms price forecast of $309.08, implying ~77% upside from Wednesday’s closing price.Microsoft (MSFT)Microsoft is a behemoth in the enterprise segment, but its video-gaming powerhouse over at Xbox should not go ignored. The recent acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI) makes Microsoft’s gaming empire one of the largest in the world. With such a powerful, growing presence in video gaming, Microsoft could enjoy smooth sailing into the era of the metaverse.Undoubtedly, Microsoft is changing the game (pun intended) in the video-gaming world with services such as the Xbox Game Pass subscription service and Xbox Cloud Gaming (formerly xCloud). With such services, the barriers to entry into gaming have effectively been reduced to zero.With Xbox Game Pass and Cloud Gaming, one no longer needs to buy expensive games for $79.99 upfront, nor does one need to purchase a costly Xbox console. In essence, Microsoft may have singlehandedly opened up triple-A gaming to everybody.As we move closer to the metaverse, I’d look for Microsoft to combine its VR talent with its incredible gaming division to create an immersive offering that may be difficult to stack up against.If gaming holds the keys to the metaverse, Microsoft could evolve to become a leader. If anything, Microsoft may be a better bet than Meta, given how gaming will probably be the first stepping stone into virtual realms. Of course, work and other experiences will follow. Microsoft also stands out in the “metaverse for work” department with its Teams Mesh virtual office place offering.Though the early days of the metaverse will be less of a needle-mover for Microsoft versus some of its peers, given its diversified revenue stream, I am enticed by the firm’s foundation. It looks best-in-breed. If anything, Microsoft could be the one firm that leads us into the metaverse.Wall Street analysts remain bullish, with an averageMicrosoft price target of $371.13, implying 37.4% upside from Wednesday’s close.Nvidia (NVDA)Finally, we have graphics-hardware maker Nvidia, which refers to the metaverse as we know it as the “omniverse.” Undeniably, it’s hard not to get excited when CEO Jensen Huang steps on stage, delivering his views on the future of technology. Undoubtedly, many were incredibly excited over the potential for Nvidia to power the digital realms of tomorrow.Nvidia’s Omniverse platform genuinely looks next-generation. The company’s Omniverse isn’t just for video gaming, though. With the unveiling of Omniverse Computing Platform Nvidia OVX at the company’s exciting GTC 2022 event, the industrial applications of Nvidia’s Omniverse are also intriguing.With so many exciting innovations from Omniverse to next-generation AI technologies, you can expect to pay a lofty premium for NVDA stock. It is the priciest stock on this list.Despite the nearly 18-times sales multiple, Wall Street analysts remain as bullish as ever, with an averageNvidia price target of $336.57, implying ~83% upside from current levels.ConclusionThe metaverse is a trend to keep tabs on over the next decade. Many winners will be crowned, with the market estimated to be worth around $947.1 billion by 2030, implying a CAGR of over 38%.At today’s valuations, Wall Street analysts see the highest upside potential in Nvidia. Indeed, many such analysts view the firm’s innovative capabilities as more than worth the hefty price of admission.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082751379,"gmtCreate":1650606683223,"gmtModify":1676534762972,"author":{"id":"4113647981301142","authorId":"4113647981301142","authorIdStr":"4113647981301142","name":"Sarusms","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113647981301142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you","listText":"Thank you","text":"Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082751379","repostId":"2229131033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2229131033","pubTimestamp":1650599017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2229131033?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-22 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Block: Great Company But A Tricky Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229131033","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntroductionMy thesis is that Block (NYSE:SQ) is very help","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/928c29b7aa97853e2800b02d4f3c480a\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</p><p></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>My thesis is that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a> (NYSE:SQ) is very helpful for society but their valuation is tricky. As a personal anecdote, I found Square Seller to be extremely helpful on a recent skiing trip. Getting food and drinks at Mammoth Brewing Company was done with a QR code menu/shopping cart and a Square checkout that confirmed my identity with a verification code such that I didn’t have to re-enter credit card details. This is similar to the way in which QR codes are used in China with Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) and Alipay which is partially owned by Alibaba (BABA). I think Block is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the companies that will benefit as we continue moving to this type of model in the future.</p><h2>Great Company</h2><p>In the same way that Shopify (SHOP) started by helping small and underserved online merchants before moving up market, Square Seller started by servicing a base of micro merchants which are those with annual payment volume of less than $125,000. Block is one of the few companies that has been able to fend off Amazon (AMZN). Block co-founder Jim McKelvey explains that Block’s innovation stack allowed them to come out on top when Amazon tried to enter their space with a lower price.</p><p>Former CFO Sarah Friar used to talk about the fact that sellers could onboard in 5 minutes or less by using transparent pricing in the app store. She noted that data science and machine learning let Square Seller skip credit checks and accept 95% of sellers. At the March 2016 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> Technology, Media &amp; Telecom Conference, she explained that Square Seller does much more than just processing:</p><blockquote>Well, first and foremost most of those folks are talking about as payment processors, they&#39;re only doing one thing in the value chain. So as a merchant, you still have to go get a payment processor, get a terminal provider, you have to get a point of sale (“POS”) provider, you have to get an analytics provider and so they leave the merchant to stitch together everything to do commerce. Square thinks about it because we do everything for you.</blockquote><p>At the May 2016 JPMorgan Technology, Media and Telecom Conference, CEO Jack Dorsey talked about the innovation from the prior 7 years starting with the initial idea of enabling merchants to make sales by accepting credit cards:</p><blockquote>So we made a little piece of hardware that allowed you to plug it into the headphone jack of a phone, and that enabled a seller to start swiping cards. And we made it so that you could go to the app store, you could download Square, and we would send you free hardware. You could actually purchase it in the Apple Store. And you had everything you needed to actually start and to run your business.</blockquote><p>CEO Dorsey went on to explain that Square Seller has always kept up with the preferred payment methods of the time, going from magstripe cards to more secure payments with Europay, Mastercard and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> (“EMV”) chip cards and near field communication (“NFC”). Once they were satisfied with processing, CEO Dorsey talked about building point-of-sale (“POS”), Square Capital and Square Payroll. Former CFO Friar chimed in at the same JPMorgan conference, noting that Square Loan which was then Square Capital helps merchants who are underserved by legacy banks. She noted that the average Square Capital loan size at the time was just $6,000 to $10,000 which is much smaller than the loan amounts legacy banks like to use.</p><p>In the May 2017 Investor Day Webcast, CEO Dorsey pointed out that legacy payment providers are built on COBOL and they don’t use the newest tech. He said Square Seller won by focusing on speed:</p><blockquote>That&#39;s where I think we&#39;ve really won, is that we focused multiple times around just making it faster for sellers to get in, #1. So under 2 minutes to sign up, to start accepting credit cards, which was a 2-week process before us. The 2.75%, one rate instead of digging through this byzantine maze of a rate table which took hours and accountants for a seller to really demystify. Demanding that our funds would be accessible to sellers the next business day and then making that even better by enabling them to go instant as well.</blockquote><p>In the 2Q18 call, CEO Dorsey emphasized the ways in which Square Seller makes it easy for both small and large restaurants to conduct business:</p><blockquote>60% of Square for Restaurants sellers have self-onboarded, and this is rather unusual in the industry. Typically, restaurants go to the point-of-sale provider, and they need help to set everything up. That includes their table map, all the menus, basically all the operations that they need to focus on to run their restaurant. They actually need a third-party to help them out. So the ability for a restaurant to take that on and self-onboard and do all their menus, do all their table layout with our software is pretty awesome because it creates efficiencies. And the other great thing is that our restaurant seller average annualized GPV is over $650,000. So these are not small.</blockquote><p>At the May 2019 JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference, CEO Dorsey talks about the way Cash App acts as a customer acquisition tool. Other payroll providers focus on the employer but Block focuses on the employees by putting them in control of how they get their money. Employees can get instant access to their paycheck with Cash App. We see at data.ai that Cash App is consistently in the top 10:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07b02d8a6a967d85c0f3d7646308a8f8\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Cash App Popularity (data.ai)</p><p></p><p>Block recently completed their acquisition of Afterpay which will help merchants give consumers more flexibility with buy now, pay later (“BNPL”) options at checkout.</p><h2>Tricky Valuation</h2><p>There is a tremendous opportunity for international growth; for 2021, $17.1 billion of the $17.7 billion total revenue came from the U.S.</p><p>We need to have an idea of long-term margins in order to put together a valuation range. Page 165 of the 2017 Investor Day shows an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35% to 40% as a long-term target:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe7cbaa56998d53c68b339de0040dcda\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Long-term adjusted EBITDA margins (2017 Investor Day)</p><p></p><p>This was back before Cash App was a meaningful part of the business and eventually management stopped showing the adjusted EBITDA margin consistently in the shareholder letters. The last time I saw it displayed prominently was in the 2Q18 letter when the bulk of the business was still on the Square Seller side:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9c89f8c96a4369fb6cfea7fa5438796\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Adjusted EBITDA (2Q18 letter)</p><p></p><p>Block’s adjusted EBITDA ignores stock-based compensation (&#34;SBC&#34;) so this margin is misleading. The letters to shareholders continually focus on adjusted EBITDA and this is a facile way of looking at the economics seeing as stock-based compensation is a real and ongoing expense. Here is the adjusted EBITDA table in the 2021 10-K:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/445813c9f4706d6c90aaae99e81656be\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Adjusted EBITDA breakdown (2021 10-K)</p><p></p><p>The adjusted EBITDA numbers don’t look nearly as good when we put stock-based compensation back in place. For example, the $1,014 million adjusted EBITDA for 2021 becomes just $406 million when we consider the weight of the $608 million stock-based compensation. The $135 million for 2021 depreciation and amortization is a real economic expense too. Sometimes EBITDA is useful for real estate companies with aggressive depreciation or with serial acquirers when accounting amortization isn’t the same as economic amortization but that isn’t the case here. I don’t understand why management focuses on adjusted EBITDA; it doesn’t make sense.</p><p>Despite the fact that we don’t have a direct use for the adjusted EBITDA numbers, they can be indirectly helpful if we make assumptions for stock-based compensation and depreciation/amortization. Looking at 2021, the payments business has a 44% gross margin [[$4.8 billion - $2.7 billion]/$4.8 billion] and the subscription business has an 81% gross margin [[$2.7 billion - $0.5 billion]/$2.7 billion]. I don’t see a detailed breakdown between Cash App and Square Seller beyond the gross margin level in the 2021 10-K but the 3Q19 letter says the following:</p><blockquote>Our Seller ecosystem has achieved strong profitability with an expected Adjusted EBITDA margin of nearly 30% for full year 2019. Given this profitability and our 3- to 4- quarter payback period, we are increasing our investment in go-to-market initiatives to drive continued growth.</blockquote><p>Looking at gross profit from the last 3 years and then trying to think about what it will be like 5 years from now can be helpful for a valuation framework. Once the gross profit levels are estimated, it makes sense to estimate owner earnings with some long-term margin assumptions. Cash App gross profit has skyrocketed from $458 million in 2019 to $1,226 million in 2020 and all the way up to $2,071 million in 2021. Square Seller gross profit growth has been more modest, going from $1,390 million in 2019 to $1,508 million in 2020 and $2,317 million in 2021:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe1b53ade71c5b8e7476d6793e1fe6d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit breakdown (2021 10-K)</p><p></p><p>Per GAAP requirements, Bitcoin revenue is reported on a gross level and the massive Bitcoin revenue figure above is not as meaningful as one might expect because the cost of Bitcoin revenue is large as well. Looking at 2021 for example, Bitcoin revenue was $10 billion but the Bitcoin cost of revenue was $9.8 billion for a spread of just $0.2 billion:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f762a162bf2ee0a09b3e7b2e63baf4a7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bitcoin cost of revenue (2021 10-K)</p><p></p><p>Though not a direct driver with respect to gross profit, Bitcoin creates utility that drives engagement as noted by CFO Amrita Ahuja at the November 2019 Citi Conference:</p><blockquote>And we&#39;ve seen within the Cash App ecosystem self-reinforcement on that, where the introduction of Bitcoin, as an example, is not a huge monetization driver in and of itself, but it becomes an engagement driver. And engagement is the rising tide that lifts all boats. Bitcoin users are twice as likely to have and use their Cash Card as non-Bitcoin users, which is not necessarily intuitive, but when you see the strength of the ecosystem, these products reinforce each other and create daily utility, which makes the Cash App top of mind for our customers, which then creates an overall monetization stream across Cash App. Today, we have half a dozen revenue streams within Cash App, which enables us to reinvest back into the products.</blockquote><p>Per the 10-K, hardly any of the stock-based compensation is on the cost of revenue; it is almost entirely on the gross profit:</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103e187c11502f2930da0eb5064242a7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>SBC breakdown (2021 10-K)</p><p></p><p>Stock-based compensation as a percentage of gross profit was 16.1% [$297.7 million/$1,848.1 million], 14.5% [$397.1 million/$2,733.4 million] and 13.7% [$607.6 million/$4,419.8 million] for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. I’m optimistic that it can get down to 10% of gross profit eventually.</p><p>Overall gross profit growth was 61.7% from 2020 to 2021 and the segment breakdown was 69% growth for Cash App and 54% growth for Square Seller. If gross profit can continue growing at a prodigious level then one can make the argument that today’s valuation should be based on a prodigious earnings multiple as well. If Block wasn’t managing the company for growth then I believe the income statement expense lines would be substantially lower such that roughly 20% to 25% of gross profit would make its way down to net earnings. Based on the 2021 gross profit of $4.4 billion, this translates to about $1 billion of steady-state net earnings. Today’s enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap of $62.5 billion based on 580 million shares outstanding [518,361,474 Class A + 61,696,578 Class B] as of February 18th and the April 21st market price of $107.71 per share. In effect, this is kind of like a P/E ratio of 63 and if we can expect 50% growth then it is sort of like a PEG ratio of a little more than 1 and a quarter. It’s hard to say if Mr. Market is right about today’s valuation. Block investors should watch the upcoming Investor Day on May 18th to see how well management spells out specifics for future economics. The 5-year growth rate of gross profit is very important as is the long-term net profit margin including the impact from stock-based compensation.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Block: Great Company But A Tricky Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlock: Great Company But A Tricky Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-22 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502862-block-great-company-but-tricky-valuation><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntroductionMy thesis is that Block (NYSE:SQ) is very helpful for society but their valuation is tricky. As a personal anecdote, I found Square Seller to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502862-block-great-company-but-tricky-valuation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","SQ":"Block","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502862-block-great-company-but-tricky-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2229131033","content_text":"hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntroductionMy thesis is that Block (NYSE:SQ) is very helpful for society but their valuation is tricky. As a personal anecdote, I found Square Seller to be extremely helpful on a recent skiing trip. Getting food and drinks at Mammoth Brewing Company was done with a QR code menu/shopping cart and a Square checkout that confirmed my identity with a verification code such that I didn’t have to re-enter credit card details. This is similar to the way in which QR codes are used in China with Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) and Alipay which is partially owned by Alibaba (BABA). I think Block is one of the companies that will benefit as we continue moving to this type of model in the future.Great CompanyIn the same way that Shopify (SHOP) started by helping small and underserved online merchants before moving up market, Square Seller started by servicing a base of micro merchants which are those with annual payment volume of less than $125,000. Block is one of the few companies that has been able to fend off Amazon (AMZN). Block co-founder Jim McKelvey explains that Block’s innovation stack allowed them to come out on top when Amazon tried to enter their space with a lower price.Former CFO Sarah Friar used to talk about the fact that sellers could onboard in 5 minutes or less by using transparent pricing in the app store. She noted that data science and machine learning let Square Seller skip credit checks and accept 95% of sellers. At the March 2016 Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, she explained that Square Seller does much more than just processing:Well, first and foremost most of those folks are talking about as payment processors, they're only doing one thing in the value chain. So as a merchant, you still have to go get a payment processor, get a terminal provider, you have to get a point of sale (“POS”) provider, you have to get an analytics provider and so they leave the merchant to stitch together everything to do commerce. Square thinks about it because we do everything for you.At the May 2016 JPMorgan Technology, Media and Telecom Conference, CEO Jack Dorsey talked about the innovation from the prior 7 years starting with the initial idea of enabling merchants to make sales by accepting credit cards:So we made a little piece of hardware that allowed you to plug it into the headphone jack of a phone, and that enabled a seller to start swiping cards. And we made it so that you could go to the app store, you could download Square, and we would send you free hardware. You could actually purchase it in the Apple Store. And you had everything you needed to actually start and to run your business.CEO Dorsey went on to explain that Square Seller has always kept up with the preferred payment methods of the time, going from magstripe cards to more secure payments with Europay, Mastercard and Visa (“EMV”) chip cards and near field communication (“NFC”). Once they were satisfied with processing, CEO Dorsey talked about building point-of-sale (“POS”), Square Capital and Square Payroll. Former CFO Friar chimed in at the same JPMorgan conference, noting that Square Loan which was then Square Capital helps merchants who are underserved by legacy banks. She noted that the average Square Capital loan size at the time was just $6,000 to $10,000 which is much smaller than the loan amounts legacy banks like to use.In the May 2017 Investor Day Webcast, CEO Dorsey pointed out that legacy payment providers are built on COBOL and they don’t use the newest tech. He said Square Seller won by focusing on speed:That's where I think we've really won, is that we focused multiple times around just making it faster for sellers to get in, #1. So under 2 minutes to sign up, to start accepting credit cards, which was a 2-week process before us. The 2.75%, one rate instead of digging through this byzantine maze of a rate table which took hours and accountants for a seller to really demystify. Demanding that our funds would be accessible to sellers the next business day and then making that even better by enabling them to go instant as well.In the 2Q18 call, CEO Dorsey emphasized the ways in which Square Seller makes it easy for both small and large restaurants to conduct business:60% of Square for Restaurants sellers have self-onboarded, and this is rather unusual in the industry. Typically, restaurants go to the point-of-sale provider, and they need help to set everything up. That includes their table map, all the menus, basically all the operations that they need to focus on to run their restaurant. They actually need a third-party to help them out. So the ability for a restaurant to take that on and self-onboard and do all their menus, do all their table layout with our software is pretty awesome because it creates efficiencies. And the other great thing is that our restaurant seller average annualized GPV is over $650,000. So these are not small.At the May 2019 JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference, CEO Dorsey talks about the way Cash App acts as a customer acquisition tool. Other payroll providers focus on the employer but Block focuses on the employees by putting them in control of how they get their money. Employees can get instant access to their paycheck with Cash App. We see at data.ai that Cash App is consistently in the top 10:Cash App Popularity (data.ai)Block recently completed their acquisition of Afterpay which will help merchants give consumers more flexibility with buy now, pay later (“BNPL”) options at checkout.Tricky ValuationThere is a tremendous opportunity for international growth; for 2021, $17.1 billion of the $17.7 billion total revenue came from the U.S.We need to have an idea of long-term margins in order to put together a valuation range. Page 165 of the 2017 Investor Day shows an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35% to 40% as a long-term target:Long-term adjusted EBITDA margins (2017 Investor Day)This was back before Cash App was a meaningful part of the business and eventually management stopped showing the adjusted EBITDA margin consistently in the shareholder letters. The last time I saw it displayed prominently was in the 2Q18 letter when the bulk of the business was still on the Square Seller side:Adjusted EBITDA (2Q18 letter)Block’s adjusted EBITDA ignores stock-based compensation (\"SBC\") so this margin is misleading. The letters to shareholders continually focus on adjusted EBITDA and this is a facile way of looking at the economics seeing as stock-based compensation is a real and ongoing expense. Here is the adjusted EBITDA table in the 2021 10-K:Adjusted EBITDA breakdown (2021 10-K)The adjusted EBITDA numbers don’t look nearly as good when we put stock-based compensation back in place. For example, the $1,014 million adjusted EBITDA for 2021 becomes just $406 million when we consider the weight of the $608 million stock-based compensation. The $135 million for 2021 depreciation and amortization is a real economic expense too. Sometimes EBITDA is useful for real estate companies with aggressive depreciation or with serial acquirers when accounting amortization isn’t the same as economic amortization but that isn’t the case here. I don’t understand why management focuses on adjusted EBITDA; it doesn’t make sense.Despite the fact that we don’t have a direct use for the adjusted EBITDA numbers, they can be indirectly helpful if we make assumptions for stock-based compensation and depreciation/amortization. Looking at 2021, the payments business has a 44% gross margin [[$4.8 billion - $2.7 billion]/$4.8 billion] and the subscription business has an 81% gross margin [[$2.7 billion - $0.5 billion]/$2.7 billion]. I don’t see a detailed breakdown between Cash App and Square Seller beyond the gross margin level in the 2021 10-K but the 3Q19 letter says the following:Our Seller ecosystem has achieved strong profitability with an expected Adjusted EBITDA margin of nearly 30% for full year 2019. Given this profitability and our 3- to 4- quarter payback period, we are increasing our investment in go-to-market initiatives to drive continued growth.Looking at gross profit from the last 3 years and then trying to think about what it will be like 5 years from now can be helpful for a valuation framework. Once the gross profit levels are estimated, it makes sense to estimate owner earnings with some long-term margin assumptions. Cash App gross profit has skyrocketed from $458 million in 2019 to $1,226 million in 2020 and all the way up to $2,071 million in 2021. Square Seller gross profit growth has been more modest, going from $1,390 million in 2019 to $1,508 million in 2020 and $2,317 million in 2021:Gross profit breakdown (2021 10-K)Per GAAP requirements, Bitcoin revenue is reported on a gross level and the massive Bitcoin revenue figure above is not as meaningful as one might expect because the cost of Bitcoin revenue is large as well. Looking at 2021 for example, Bitcoin revenue was $10 billion but the Bitcoin cost of revenue was $9.8 billion for a spread of just $0.2 billion:Bitcoin cost of revenue (2021 10-K)Though not a direct driver with respect to gross profit, Bitcoin creates utility that drives engagement as noted by CFO Amrita Ahuja at the November 2019 Citi Conference:And we've seen within the Cash App ecosystem self-reinforcement on that, where the introduction of Bitcoin, as an example, is not a huge monetization driver in and of itself, but it becomes an engagement driver. And engagement is the rising tide that lifts all boats. Bitcoin users are twice as likely to have and use their Cash Card as non-Bitcoin users, which is not necessarily intuitive, but when you see the strength of the ecosystem, these products reinforce each other and create daily utility, which makes the Cash App top of mind for our customers, which then creates an overall monetization stream across Cash App. Today, we have half a dozen revenue streams within Cash App, which enables us to reinvest back into the products.Per the 10-K, hardly any of the stock-based compensation is on the cost of revenue; it is almost entirely on the gross profit:SBC breakdown (2021 10-K)Stock-based compensation as a percentage of gross profit was 16.1% [$297.7 million/$1,848.1 million], 14.5% [$397.1 million/$2,733.4 million] and 13.7% [$607.6 million/$4,419.8 million] for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. I’m optimistic that it can get down to 10% of gross profit eventually.Overall gross profit growth was 61.7% from 2020 to 2021 and the segment breakdown was 69% growth for Cash App and 54% growth for Square Seller. If gross profit can continue growing at a prodigious level then one can make the argument that today’s valuation should be based on a prodigious earnings multiple as well. If Block wasn’t managing the company for growth then I believe the income statement expense lines would be substantially lower such that roughly 20% to 25% of gross profit would make its way down to net earnings. Based on the 2021 gross profit of $4.4 billion, this translates to about $1 billion of steady-state net earnings. Today’s enterprise value is fairly close to the market cap of $62.5 billion based on 580 million shares outstanding [518,361,474 Class A + 61,696,578 Class B] as of February 18th and the April 21st market price of $107.71 per share. In effect, this is kind of like a P/E ratio of 63 and if we can expect 50% growth then it is sort of like a PEG ratio of a little more than 1 and a quarter. It’s hard to say if Mr. Market is right about today’s valuation. Block investors should watch the upcoming Investor Day on May 18th to see how well management spells out specifics for future economics. The 5-year growth rate of gross profit is very important as is the long-term net profit margin including the impact from stock-based compensation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082758320,"gmtCreate":1650606863881,"gmtModify":1676534762996,"author":{"id":"4113647981301142","authorId":"4113647981301142","authorIdStr":"4113647981301142","name":"Sarusms","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113647981301142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> looking good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> looking good","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ looking good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/626d1ba69be3123dc0598340d1068c7e","width":"1125","height":"2712"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082758320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082171786,"gmtCreate":1650546003859,"gmtModify":1676534748372,"author":{"id":"4113647981301142","authorId":"4113647981301142","authorIdStr":"4113647981301142","name":"Sarusms","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113647981301142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Hope for the best","listText":"&nbsp;Hope for the best","text":"Hope for the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082171786","repostId":"1178936813","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178936813","pubTimestamp":1650544379,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178936813?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-21 20:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nestle CEO Says Growth Target Conservative, Margin More Challenging","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178936813","media":"Reuters","summary":"Nestle's organic growth target of around 5% this year is \"conservative\" while the margin target has ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nestle&#39;s organic growth target of around 5% this year is &#34;conservative&#34; while the margin target has become more challenging due to inflationary pressures, the food group&#39;s chief executive said on Thursday.</p><p>&#34;Our start into the year was stronger than expected, and we believe that our organic sales growth guidance is conservative at this point,&#34; Mark Schneider said in a call on the group&#39;s first-quarter sales.</p><p>&#34;At the same time, inflationary pressures have increased a lot since then and in ways that were not foreseeable at that time. As a result of this change in context, our guidance range of 17% to 17.5% for the underlying trading operating profit margin has become more challenging than before when we described it as conservative,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601381805984","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nestle CEO Says Growth Target Conservative, Margin More Challenging</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNestle CEO Says Growth Target Conservative, Margin More Challenging\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-21 20:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nestle-ceo-says-growth-target-122134731.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nestle's organic growth target of around 5% this year is \"conservative\" while the margin target has become more challenging due to inflationary pressures, the food group's chief executive said on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nestle-ceo-says-growth-target-122134731.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NSRGY":"雀巢"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nestle-ceo-says-growth-target-122134731.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178936813","content_text":"Nestle's organic growth target of around 5% this year is \"conservative\" while the margin target has become more challenging due to inflationary pressures, the food group's chief executive said on Thursday.\"Our start into the year was stronger than expected, and we believe that our organic sales growth guidance is conservative at this point,\" Mark Schneider said in a call on the group's first-quarter sales.\"At the same time, inflationary pressures have increased a lot since then and in ways that were not foreseeable at that time. As a result of this change in context, our guidance range of 17% to 17.5% for the underlying trading operating profit margin has become more challenging than before when we described it as conservative,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}