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1千变4千万
2022-05-21
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Goldman Sachs quietly releases "Recession Handbook": What to do if a recession strikes?
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2022-05-09
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2022-05-03
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15:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs quietly releases \"Recession Handbook\": What to do if a recession strikes?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177266080","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在衰退前的12个月里，防御型和优质型股票的表现通常优于其他类型股票。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs stated that defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks in the 12 months leading up to a recession. During recessions, sectors such as energy, consumer goods, and healthcare typically outperform the broader market. As fears of stagflation are turning into fears of a recession, Wall Street has begun to plan ahead.</p><p>Recently, two days after releasing a list of stocks that performed strongly in the \"impending recession,\" Goldman Sachs began quietly distributing its \"Recession Handbook\" to its professional subscribers. In the report, the bank discusses the price, earnings, valuations, and industry and factor performance of the S&P 500 index in past recessions, providing some insights for investors looking to weather economic downturns.</p><p>Goldman Sachs stated that defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks in the 12 months leading up to a recession. During recessions, sectors such as energy, consumer goods, and healthcare typically outperform the broader market.</p><p><b>The likelihood of a recession in the United States is rising.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist David Kostin stated in a report: \"Our economists estimate that...\"<b>There is a 35% chance that the US economy will enter a recession in the next two years</b>Moreover, judging from the yield curve, the likelihood of a contraction in the US economy is similar.</p><p>He also acknowledged that US assets are experiencing a major turnover, indicating...<b>Investors are digesting expectations that the U.S. economy is increasingly likely to experience a recession.</b></p><p>Since January, the relative performance of cyclical and defensive stocks has fallen by 17% (the former by 19% and the latter by 2%), and the relative performance of these two stocks is closely correlated with the performance of the ISM Manufacturing Index. The current ISM index is 55, so a 17% drop means the ISM index will fall below 50.<b>That is, the U.S. economy will contract and then enter a recession.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fecb3d9fa9ea1a9a7c81f72bddca0\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the Dividend futures market suggests that the Dividend of S&P 500 companies will decline by nearly 5% in 2023. This is of great significance because<b>Over the past 60 years, the Dividend of S&P 500 companies have never declined outside of an economic recession.</b></p><p><b>Recession Apocalypse</b></p><p>However, Goldman Sachs believes that \"recession is not inevitable.\" In its report, the bank discussed the price, earnings, valuation, and industry and factor performance of the S&P 500 index in past recessions, providing some insights for investors who want to weather the economic downturn.</p><p><b>Judging from the price</b>In the 12 recessions since World War II, the median decline in the S&P 500 from peak to trough was 24%. If the S&P 500 index falls from its peak of nearly 4,800 points in January 2022 according to the median decline,<b>Then it will bottom out around 3650 points. If calculated based on the average decline, it will bottom out at 3360 points.</b>By the close of trading overnight, the S&P 500 was at 3,900.79 points, with a year-to-date decline of more than 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/badd5782f89d1f12be1cd8b157cef570\" tg-width=\"1282\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From a time perspective</b>In the 12 recessions since World War II, the stock market began pricing in recessions seven months before the official definition of \"recession\" by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Specifically, the market peaked before the recession and then bottomed out before the recession ended.</p><p>Historically, the only exception was the economic recession of 2000, when the stock market did not bottom out for a full eight months after the recession ended, and the period from peak to bottom lasted a full 30 months.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the labor market</b>According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs, stock market bottoms typically correlate with the peak in the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week. In most cases, the market bottoms out before the number of first-time applicants peaks. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 14 was 218,000.<b>This is the highest level since April, but it is still far below the historical average, not to mention the record set during the COVID-19 pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414cfe761bf07b4d2229d8bce2e212cc\" tg-width=\"1195\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of earnings per share</b>Since 1948, the median decline in S&P 500 earnings per share from peak to trough during recessions has been 13%. After four quarters of bottoming out, the median rebound in earnings per share was 17%.</p><p>In the past four recessions, the revision to the general expectation for earnings per share in the six months leading up to the start of the recession has typically been between -6% and -18%, with a median of -10%. In the six months following the start of the recession, analysts estimated a -13% decline in earnings per share. During the 12-month period before and after the start of the recession, the estimated earnings per share decline was -22%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472fdbfaceb542db35b3a921f38882ec\" tg-width=\"1473\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From a valuation perspective</b>From its pre-recession peak to its final low, the median expected P/E decline for the S&P 500 is 21%. In a recession that began in 1980, the S&P 500 P/E fell by 15% over an eight-month period from its peak to the start of the recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91fd32b45c45d38bb49dcc47cf7d43f\" tg-width=\"1469\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From an industry perspective</b>In the 12 months leading up to a recession, defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks. During the five recessions since 1981, energy, consumer goods, healthcare, and utilities have all outperformed the S&P 500 on average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58783b30fa4b6790dc5098227c79cf5c\" tg-width=\"1057\" tg-height=\"1332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs quietly releases \"Recession Handbook\": What to do if a recession strikes?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs quietly releases \"Recession Handbook\": What to do if a recession strikes?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-20 15:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs stated that defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks in the 12 months leading up to a recession. During recessions, sectors such as energy, consumer goods, and healthcare typically outperform the broader market. As fears of stagflation are turning into fears of a recession, Wall Street has begun to plan ahead.</p><p>Recently, two days after releasing a list of stocks that performed strongly in the \"impending recession,\" Goldman Sachs began quietly distributing its \"Recession Handbook\" to its professional subscribers. In the report, the bank discusses the price, earnings, valuations, and industry and factor performance of the S&P 500 index in past recessions, providing some insights for investors looking to weather economic downturns.</p><p>Goldman Sachs stated that defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks in the 12 months leading up to a recession. During recessions, sectors such as energy, consumer goods, and healthcare typically outperform the broader market.</p><p><b>The likelihood of a recession in the United States is rising.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist David Kostin stated in a report: \"Our economists estimate that...\"<b>There is a 35% chance that the US economy will enter a recession in the next two years</b>Moreover, judging from the yield curve, the likelihood of a contraction in the US economy is similar.</p><p>He also acknowledged that US assets are experiencing a major turnover, indicating...<b>Investors are digesting expectations that the U.S. economy is increasingly likely to experience a recession.</b></p><p>Since January, the relative performance of cyclical and defensive stocks has fallen by 17% (the former by 19% and the latter by 2%), and the relative performance of these two stocks is closely correlated with the performance of the ISM Manufacturing Index. The current ISM index is 55, so a 17% drop means the ISM index will fall below 50.<b>That is, the U.S. economy will contract and then enter a recession.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fecb3d9fa9ea1a9a7c81f72bddca0\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the Dividend futures market suggests that the Dividend of S&P 500 companies will decline by nearly 5% in 2023. This is of great significance because<b>Over the past 60 years, the Dividend of S&P 500 companies have never declined outside of an economic recession.</b></p><p><b>Recession Apocalypse</b></p><p>However, Goldman Sachs believes that \"recession is not inevitable.\" In its report, the bank discussed the price, earnings, valuation, and industry and factor performance of the S&P 500 index in past recessions, providing some insights for investors who want to weather the economic downturn.</p><p><b>Judging from the price</b>In the 12 recessions since World War II, the median decline in the S&P 500 from peak to trough was 24%. If the S&P 500 index falls from its peak of nearly 4,800 points in January 2022 according to the median decline,<b>Then it will bottom out around 3650 points. If calculated based on the average decline, it will bottom out at 3360 points.</b>By the close of trading overnight, the S&P 500 was at 3,900.79 points, with a year-to-date decline of more than 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/badd5782f89d1f12be1cd8b157cef570\" tg-width=\"1282\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From a time perspective</b>In the 12 recessions since World War II, the stock market began pricing in recessions seven months before the official definition of \"recession\" by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Specifically, the market peaked before the recession and then bottomed out before the recession ended.</p><p>Historically, the only exception was the economic recession of 2000, when the stock market did not bottom out for a full eight months after the recession ended, and the period from peak to bottom lasted a full 30 months.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the labor market</b>According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs, stock market bottoms typically correlate with the peak in the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week. In most cases, the market bottoms out before the number of first-time applicants peaks. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 14 was 218,000.<b>This is the highest level since April, but it is still far below the historical average, not to mention the record set during the COVID-19 pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414cfe761bf07b4d2229d8bce2e212cc\" tg-width=\"1195\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of earnings per share</b>Since 1948, the median decline in S&P 500 earnings per share from peak to trough during recessions has been 13%. After four quarters of bottoming out, the median rebound in earnings per share was 17%.</p><p>In the past four recessions, the revision to the general expectation for earnings per share in the six months leading up to the start of the recession has typically been between -6% and -18%, with a median of -10%. In the six months following the start of the recession, analysts estimated a -13% decline in earnings per share. During the 12-month period before and after the start of the recession, the estimated earnings per share decline was -22%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472fdbfaceb542db35b3a921f38882ec\" tg-width=\"1473\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From a valuation perspective</b>From its pre-recession peak to its final low, the median expected P/E decline for the S&P 500 is 21%. In a recession that began in 1980, the S&P 500 P/E fell by 15% over an eight-month period from its peak to the start of the recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91fd32b45c45d38bb49dcc47cf7d43f\" tg-width=\"1469\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From an industry perspective</b>In the 12 months leading up to a recession, defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks. During the five recessions since 1981, energy, consumer goods, healthcare, and utilities have all outperformed the S&P 500 on average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58783b30fa4b6790dc5098227c79cf5c\" tg-width=\"1057\" tg-height=\"1332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177266080","content_text":"高盛表示，在衰退前的12个月里，防御型和优质型股票的表现通常优于其他类型股票；在衰退期间，能源、日用消费品、医疗保健等行业板块通常能跑赢大盘。随着对滞涨的恐惧正转变为对经济衰退的恐惧，华尔街已经开始未雨绸缪。近日，在发布一份“即将到来的衰退”中表现强劲的股票名单的两天后，高盛开始悄悄向其专业订户分发《衰退手册》，该行在报告中讨论了标普500指数的价格、收益、估值以及行业和要素在以往衰退中的表现，给想要抵御经济衰退的投资者一些启示。高盛表示，在衰退前的12个月里，防御型和优质型股票的表现通常优于其他类型股票；在衰退期间，能源、日用消费品、医疗保健等行业板块通常能跑赢大盘。美国出现衰退的可能性正在上升高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin在报告中表示：“我们的经济学家估计，美国经济在未来两年内进入衰退的可能性为35%，而且从收益率曲线来看，美国经济出现收缩的可能性也与之类似。”他同时承认，美国资产迎来大轮换，表明投资者正在消化美国经济越来越有可能出现衰退的预期。自1月以来，周期型股票与防御型股票的相对表现下降了17%（前者下降19%，后者下降2%），而这两种股票的相对表现与ISM制造业指数走势密切相关。目前ISM指数为55，因此17%的降幅意味着ISM指数将降至50以下，即美国经济将收缩进而进入衰退。此外，股息期货市场暗示，标普500指数成份股公司的股息将在2023年下降近5%。这一点意义重大，因为在过去的60年里，标普500指数成份股公司的股息在经济衰退之外从未下降过。”衰退启示录不过，高盛认为“衰退并非不可避免”，该行在报告中讨论了标普500指数的价格、收益、估值以及行业和要素在以往衰退中的表现，给想要抵御经济衰退的投资者一些启示。从价格来看，在二战以来的12次衰退中，标普500指数从峰值到谷底的跌幅中值为24%。如果标普500指数按照跌幅中值从2022年1月近4800点的峰值下跌，那么它将在3650点附近触底。如果按照跌幅平均数计算，它将在3360点触底。截至隔夜美股收盘，标普500指数报3900.79点，年初至今累计跌幅已经超过18%。从时间来看，在二战以来的12次衰退中，股票市场在美国国家经济研究局（NBER）官方定义的“衰退”前的7个月便开始对其进行定价，具体表现为市场在衰退前见顶，然后在衰退结束前见底。历史上，只有2000年的经济衰退例外，股市在衰退结束后整整8个月才触底，从见顶到触底持续了整整30个月。从劳动力市场来看，根据高盛整理的数据，股市底部通常与每周首次申领失业救济金人数的峰值呈现出某种联系。在大多数情况下，市场在首申人数达到峰值前触底。美国5月14日当周首次申请失业救济人数21.8万人，为4月以来最高水平，但仍远低于历史平均水平，更不用说新冠疫情期间的记录了。从每股收益来看，自1948年以来，标普500指数的每股收益在衰退期间从峰值到谷底的降幅中值为13%。在跌至谷底的四个季度后，每股收益回升幅度中值为17%。在过去的四次衰退中，衰退开始前6个月每股收益普遍预期的修正幅度通常在-6%至-18%之间，中值为-10%。在经济衰退开始后的6个月里，分析师估计每股收益降幅为-13%。在衰退开始前后的12个月期间，估计每股收益降幅为-22%。从估值来看，从衰退前的峰值到最终的最低值，标普500指数的预期市盈率降幅中值为21%。在1980年开始的一场衰退中，标普500指数市盈率从见顶到衰退开始期间历经8个月，降幅为15%。从行业来看，在衰退前的12个月里，防御型和优质型股票的表现通常优于其他类型股票。在1981年以来的5次衰退期间，能源、日用消费品、医疗保健和公用事业的平均表现都超过标普500指数。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062267324,"gmtCreate":1652066378868,"gmtModify":1676535023281,"author":{"id":"4113702377396762","authorId":"4113702377396762","name":"1千变4千万","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e385c1cc9da23041281c653e085730","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113702377396762","authorIdStr":"4113702377396762"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062267324","repostId":"1103965281","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061314063,"gmtCreate":1651566885897,"gmtModify":1676534928348,"author":{"id":"4113702377396762","authorId":"4113702377396762","name":"1千变4千万","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e385c1cc9da23041281c653e085730","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113702377396762","authorIdStr":"4113702377396762"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061314063","repostId":"1186502796","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186502796","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651566274,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186502796?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-03 16:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market activity | Bank stocks rise! Countdown to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186502796","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月3日，美股三大股指期货小幅走高，道指期货涨0.24%，纳指期货涨0.23%，标普500指数期货涨0.26%。美股银行股盘前多数走高，巴克莱银行涨近4%，汇丰涨近3%，德意志银行涨超2%，美国银行、","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly, with Dow Jones futures up 0.24%, Nasdaq futures up 0.23%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ba20f4cfe41f9a521f938c50f8b5eb5\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Most U.S. bank stocks rose in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Up nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Rising nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>A slight increase; The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day interest rate decision from May 3 to May 4, 2022 (US time), and will announce the results at 02:00 AM Beijing time on May 5.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>The stock rose more than 5% in pre-market trading after reporting Q1 adjusted net profit of $6.25 billion, the highest in more than a decade.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOGI\">Logitech</a>The company fell more than 3%, with first-quarter earnings far below market expectations, and its guidance for fiscal year 2023 was lowered.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax Pharma</a>The stock continued to rise 2% in pre-market trading, after closing up nearly 20% yesterday after the company announced that its COVID-19 vaccine may receive FDA approval on June 7.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>It rose more than 2% in pre-market trading, with plans to complete the restart of 23 ships in May;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis</a>The stock rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading after news broke that Stellantis would acquire SHARE NOW, a car-sharing joint venture between Mercedes-Benz and BMW.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market activity | Bank stocks rise! Countdown to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market activity | Bank stocks rise! Countdown to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-03 16:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly, with Dow Jones futures up 0.24%, Nasdaq futures up 0.23%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ba20f4cfe41f9a521f938c50f8b5eb5\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Most U.S. bank stocks rose in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Up nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Rising nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>A slight increase; The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day interest rate decision from May 3 to May 4, 2022 (US time), and will announce the results at 02:00 AM Beijing time on May 5.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>The stock rose more than 5% in pre-market trading after reporting Q1 adjusted net profit of $6.25 billion, the highest in more than a decade.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOGI\">Logitech</a>The company fell more than 3%, with first-quarter earnings far below market expectations, and its guidance for fiscal year 2023 was lowered.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax Pharma</a>The stock continued to rise 2% in pre-market trading, after closing up nearly 20% yesterday after the company announced that its COVID-19 vaccine may receive FDA approval on June 7.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>It rose more than 2% in pre-market trading, with plans to complete the restart of 23 ships in May;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis</a>The stock rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading after news broke that Stellantis would acquire SHARE NOW, a car-sharing joint venture between Mercedes-Benz and BMW.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186502796","content_text":"5月3日，美股三大股指期货小幅走高，道指期货涨0.24%，纳指期货涨0.23%，标普500指数期货涨0.26%。美股银行股盘前多数走高，巴克莱银行涨近4%，汇丰涨近3%，德意志银行涨超2%，美国银行、摩根大通、花旗小幅上涨；美联储在美国时间的2022年5月3日至5月4日召开为期两日的利率决议，在北京时间的5月5日凌晨02:00公布利率决议结果。英国石油盘前涨超5%，Q1调整后净利润62.5亿美元，为十多年来最高；罗技跌超3%，第一季度收益远低于市场预期，下调2023财年指引；诺瓦瓦克斯医药盘前续涨2%，该股昨日大幅收涨近20%，此前公司表示新冠疫苗或于6月7日获得美FDA授权；嘉年华邮轮盘前涨超2%，5月份计划完成23艘船的重新启动；Stellantis盘前涨近2%，消息称Stellantis将收购奔驰与宝马的汽车共享合资公司SHARE NOW。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9021715902,"gmtCreate":1653101639207,"gmtModify":1676535224845,"author":{"id":"4113702377396762","authorId":"4113702377396762","name":"1千变4千万","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e385c1cc9da23041281c653e085730","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4113702377396762","idStr":"4113702377396762"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021715902","repostId":"1177266080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177266080","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1653032295,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177266080?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-20 15:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs quietly releases \"Recession Handbook\": What to do if a recession strikes?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177266080","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在衰退前的12个月里，防御型和优质型股票的表现通常优于其他类型股票。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs stated that defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks in the 12 months leading up to a recession. During recessions, sectors such as energy, consumer goods, and healthcare typically outperform the broader market. As fears of stagflation are turning into fears of a recession, Wall Street has begun to plan ahead.</p><p>Recently, two days after releasing a list of stocks that performed strongly in the \"impending recession,\" Goldman Sachs began quietly distributing its \"Recession Handbook\" to its professional subscribers. In the report, the bank discusses the price, earnings, valuations, and industry and factor performance of the S&P 500 index in past recessions, providing some insights for investors looking to weather economic downturns.</p><p>Goldman Sachs stated that defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks in the 12 months leading up to a recession. During recessions, sectors such as energy, consumer goods, and healthcare typically outperform the broader market.</p><p><b>The likelihood of a recession in the United States is rising.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist David Kostin stated in a report: \"Our economists estimate that...\"<b>There is a 35% chance that the US economy will enter a recession in the next two years</b>Moreover, judging from the yield curve, the likelihood of a contraction in the US economy is similar.</p><p>He also acknowledged that US assets are experiencing a major turnover, indicating...<b>Investors are digesting expectations that the U.S. economy is increasingly likely to experience a recession.</b></p><p>Since January, the relative performance of cyclical and defensive stocks has fallen by 17% (the former by 19% and the latter by 2%), and the relative performance of these two stocks is closely correlated with the performance of the ISM Manufacturing Index. The current ISM index is 55, so a 17% drop means the ISM index will fall below 50.<b>That is, the U.S. economy will contract and then enter a recession.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fecb3d9fa9ea1a9a7c81f72bddca0\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the Dividend futures market suggests that the Dividend of S&P 500 companies will decline by nearly 5% in 2023. This is of great significance because<b>Over the past 60 years, the Dividend of S&P 500 companies have never declined outside of an economic recession.</b></p><p><b>Recession Apocalypse</b></p><p>However, Goldman Sachs believes that \"recession is not inevitable.\" In its report, the bank discussed the price, earnings, valuation, and industry and factor performance of the S&P 500 index in past recessions, providing some insights for investors who want to weather the economic downturn.</p><p><b>Judging from the price</b>In the 12 recessions since World War II, the median decline in the S&P 500 from peak to trough was 24%. If the S&P 500 index falls from its peak of nearly 4,800 points in January 2022 according to the median decline,<b>Then it will bottom out around 3650 points. If calculated based on the average decline, it will bottom out at 3360 points.</b>By the close of trading overnight, the S&P 500 was at 3,900.79 points, with a year-to-date decline of more than 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/badd5782f89d1f12be1cd8b157cef570\" tg-width=\"1282\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From a time perspective</b>In the 12 recessions since World War II, the stock market began pricing in recessions seven months before the official definition of \"recession\" by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Specifically, the market peaked before the recession and then bottomed out before the recession ended.</p><p>Historically, the only exception was the economic recession of 2000, when the stock market did not bottom out for a full eight months after the recession ended, and the period from peak to bottom lasted a full 30 months.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the labor market</b>According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs, stock market bottoms typically correlate with the peak in the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week. In most cases, the market bottoms out before the number of first-time applicants peaks. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 14 was 218,000.<b>This is the highest level since April, but it is still far below the historical average, not to mention the record set during the COVID-19 pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414cfe761bf07b4d2229d8bce2e212cc\" tg-width=\"1195\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of earnings per share</b>Since 1948, the median decline in S&P 500 earnings per share from peak to trough during recessions has been 13%. After four quarters of bottoming out, the median rebound in earnings per share was 17%.</p><p>In the past four recessions, the revision to the general expectation for earnings per share in the six months leading up to the start of the recession has typically been between -6% and -18%, with a median of -10%. In the six months following the start of the recession, analysts estimated a -13% decline in earnings per share. During the 12-month period before and after the start of the recession, the estimated earnings per share decline was -22%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472fdbfaceb542db35b3a921f38882ec\" tg-width=\"1473\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From a valuation perspective</b>From its pre-recession peak to its final low, the median expected P/E decline for the S&P 500 is 21%. In a recession that began in 1980, the S&P 500 P/E fell by 15% over an eight-month period from its peak to the start of the recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91fd32b45c45d38bb49dcc47cf7d43f\" tg-width=\"1469\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From an industry perspective</b>In the 12 months leading up to a recession, defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks. During the five recessions since 1981, energy, consumer goods, healthcare, and utilities have all outperformed the S&P 500 on average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58783b30fa4b6790dc5098227c79cf5c\" tg-width=\"1057\" tg-height=\"1332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs quietly releases \"Recession Handbook\": What to do if a recession strikes?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs quietly releases \"Recession Handbook\": What to do if a recession strikes?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-20 15:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs stated that defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks in the 12 months leading up to a recession. During recessions, sectors such as energy, consumer goods, and healthcare typically outperform the broader market. As fears of stagflation are turning into fears of a recession, Wall Street has begun to plan ahead.</p><p>Recently, two days after releasing a list of stocks that performed strongly in the \"impending recession,\" Goldman Sachs began quietly distributing its \"Recession Handbook\" to its professional subscribers. In the report, the bank discusses the price, earnings, valuations, and industry and factor performance of the S&P 500 index in past recessions, providing some insights for investors looking to weather economic downturns.</p><p>Goldman Sachs stated that defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks in the 12 months leading up to a recession. During recessions, sectors such as energy, consumer goods, and healthcare typically outperform the broader market.</p><p><b>The likelihood of a recession in the United States is rising.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist David Kostin stated in a report: \"Our economists estimate that...\"<b>There is a 35% chance that the US economy will enter a recession in the next two years</b>Moreover, judging from the yield curve, the likelihood of a contraction in the US economy is similar.</p><p>He also acknowledged that US assets are experiencing a major turnover, indicating...<b>Investors are digesting expectations that the U.S. economy is increasingly likely to experience a recession.</b></p><p>Since January, the relative performance of cyclical and defensive stocks has fallen by 17% (the former by 19% and the latter by 2%), and the relative performance of these two stocks is closely correlated with the performance of the ISM Manufacturing Index. The current ISM index is 55, so a 17% drop means the ISM index will fall below 50.<b>That is, the U.S. economy will contract and then enter a recession.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fecb3d9fa9ea1a9a7c81f72bddca0\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the Dividend futures market suggests that the Dividend of S&P 500 companies will decline by nearly 5% in 2023. This is of great significance because<b>Over the past 60 years, the Dividend of S&P 500 companies have never declined outside of an economic recession.</b></p><p><b>Recession Apocalypse</b></p><p>However, Goldman Sachs believes that \"recession is not inevitable.\" In its report, the bank discussed the price, earnings, valuation, and industry and factor performance of the S&P 500 index in past recessions, providing some insights for investors who want to weather the economic downturn.</p><p><b>Judging from the price</b>In the 12 recessions since World War II, the median decline in the S&P 500 from peak to trough was 24%. If the S&P 500 index falls from its peak of nearly 4,800 points in January 2022 according to the median decline,<b>Then it will bottom out around 3650 points. If calculated based on the average decline, it will bottom out at 3360 points.</b>By the close of trading overnight, the S&P 500 was at 3,900.79 points, with a year-to-date decline of more than 18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/badd5782f89d1f12be1cd8b157cef570\" tg-width=\"1282\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From a time perspective</b>In the 12 recessions since World War II, the stock market began pricing in recessions seven months before the official definition of \"recession\" by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Specifically, the market peaked before the recession and then bottomed out before the recession ended.</p><p>Historically, the only exception was the economic recession of 2000, when the stock market did not bottom out for a full eight months after the recession ended, and the period from peak to bottom lasted a full 30 months.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the labor market</b>According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs, stock market bottoms typically correlate with the peak in the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week. In most cases, the market bottoms out before the number of first-time applicants peaks. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 14 was 218,000.<b>This is the highest level since April, but it is still far below the historical average, not to mention the record set during the COVID-19 pandemic.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414cfe761bf07b4d2229d8bce2e212cc\" tg-width=\"1195\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of earnings per share</b>Since 1948, the median decline in S&P 500 earnings per share from peak to trough during recessions has been 13%. After four quarters of bottoming out, the median rebound in earnings per share was 17%.</p><p>In the past four recessions, the revision to the general expectation for earnings per share in the six months leading up to the start of the recession has typically been between -6% and -18%, with a median of -10%. In the six months following the start of the recession, analysts estimated a -13% decline in earnings per share. During the 12-month period before and after the start of the recession, the estimated earnings per share decline was -22%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472fdbfaceb542db35b3a921f38882ec\" tg-width=\"1473\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From a valuation perspective</b>From its pre-recession peak to its final low, the median expected P/E decline for the S&P 500 is 21%. In a recession that began in 1980, the S&P 500 P/E fell by 15% over an eight-month period from its peak to the start of the recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91fd32b45c45d38bb49dcc47cf7d43f\" tg-width=\"1469\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From an industry perspective</b>In the 12 months leading up to a recession, defensive and premium stocks typically outperformed other types of stocks. During the five recessions since 1981, energy, consumer goods, healthcare, and utilities have all outperformed the S&P 500 on average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58783b30fa4b6790dc5098227c79cf5c\" tg-width=\"1057\" tg-height=\"1332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177266080","content_text":"高盛表示，在衰退前的12个月里，防御型和优质型股票的表现通常优于其他类型股票；在衰退期间，能源、日用消费品、医疗保健等行业板块通常能跑赢大盘。随着对滞涨的恐惧正转变为对经济衰退的恐惧，华尔街已经开始未雨绸缪。近日，在发布一份“即将到来的衰退”中表现强劲的股票名单的两天后，高盛开始悄悄向其专业订户分发《衰退手册》，该行在报告中讨论了标普500指数的价格、收益、估值以及行业和要素在以往衰退中的表现，给想要抵御经济衰退的投资者一些启示。高盛表示，在衰退前的12个月里，防御型和优质型股票的表现通常优于其他类型股票；在衰退期间，能源、日用消费品、医疗保健等行业板块通常能跑赢大盘。美国出现衰退的可能性正在上升高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin在报告中表示：“我们的经济学家估计，美国经济在未来两年内进入衰退的可能性为35%，而且从收益率曲线来看，美国经济出现收缩的可能性也与之类似。”他同时承认，美国资产迎来大轮换，表明投资者正在消化美国经济越来越有可能出现衰退的预期。自1月以来，周期型股票与防御型股票的相对表现下降了17%（前者下降19%，后者下降2%），而这两种股票的相对表现与ISM制造业指数走势密切相关。目前ISM指数为55，因此17%的降幅意味着ISM指数将降至50以下，即美国经济将收缩进而进入衰退。此外，股息期货市场暗示，标普500指数成份股公司的股息将在2023年下降近5%。这一点意义重大，因为在过去的60年里，标普500指数成份股公司的股息在经济衰退之外从未下降过。”衰退启示录不过，高盛认为“衰退并非不可避免”，该行在报告中讨论了标普500指数的价格、收益、估值以及行业和要素在以往衰退中的表现，给想要抵御经济衰退的投资者一些启示。从价格来看，在二战以来的12次衰退中，标普500指数从峰值到谷底的跌幅中值为24%。如果标普500指数按照跌幅中值从2022年1月近4800点的峰值下跌，那么它将在3650点附近触底。如果按照跌幅平均数计算，它将在3360点触底。截至隔夜美股收盘，标普500指数报3900.79点，年初至今累计跌幅已经超过18%。从时间来看，在二战以来的12次衰退中，股票市场在美国国家经济研究局（NBER）官方定义的“衰退”前的7个月便开始对其进行定价，具体表现为市场在衰退前见顶，然后在衰退结束前见底。历史上，只有2000年的经济衰退例外，股市在衰退结束后整整8个月才触底，从见顶到触底持续了整整30个月。从劳动力市场来看，根据高盛整理的数据，股市底部通常与每周首次申领失业救济金人数的峰值呈现出某种联系。在大多数情况下，市场在首申人数达到峰值前触底。美国5月14日当周首次申请失业救济人数21.8万人，为4月以来最高水平，但仍远低于历史平均水平，更不用说新冠疫情期间的记录了。从每股收益来看，自1948年以来，标普500指数的每股收益在衰退期间从峰值到谷底的降幅中值为13%。在跌至谷底的四个季度后，每股收益回升幅度中值为17%。在过去的四次衰退中，衰退开始前6个月每股收益普遍预期的修正幅度通常在-6%至-18%之间，中值为-10%。在经济衰退开始后的6个月里，分析师估计每股收益降幅为-13%。在衰退开始前后的12个月期间，估计每股收益降幅为-22%。从估值来看，从衰退前的峰值到最终的最低值，标普500指数的预期市盈率降幅中值为21%。在1980年开始的一场衰退中，标普500指数市盈率从见顶到衰退开始期间历经8个月，降幅为15%。从行业来看，在衰退前的12个月里，防御型和优质型股票的表现通常优于其他类型股票。在1981年以来的5次衰退期间，能源、日用消费品、医疗保健和公用事业的平均表现都超过标普500指数。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062267324,"gmtCreate":1652066378868,"gmtModify":1676535023281,"author":{"id":"4113702377396762","authorId":"4113702377396762","name":"1千变4千万","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e385c1cc9da23041281c653e085730","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4113702377396762","idStr":"4113702377396762"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062267324","repostId":"1103965281","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061314063,"gmtCreate":1651566885897,"gmtModify":1676534928348,"author":{"id":"4113702377396762","authorId":"4113702377396762","name":"1千变4千万","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e385c1cc9da23041281c653e085730","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4113702377396762","idStr":"4113702377396762"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061314063","repostId":"1186502796","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186502796","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651566274,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186502796?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-03 16:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market activity | Bank stocks rise! Countdown to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186502796","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月3日，美股三大股指期货小幅走高，道指期货涨0.24%，纳指期货涨0.23%，标普500指数期货涨0.26%。美股银行股盘前多数走高，巴克莱银行涨近4%，汇丰涨近3%，德意志银行涨超2%，美国银行、","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly, with Dow Jones futures up 0.24%, Nasdaq futures up 0.23%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ba20f4cfe41f9a521f938c50f8b5eb5\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Most U.S. bank stocks rose in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Up nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Rising nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>A slight increase; The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day interest rate decision from May 3 to May 4, 2022 (US time), and will announce the results at 02:00 AM Beijing time on May 5.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>The stock rose more than 5% in pre-market trading after reporting Q1 adjusted net profit of $6.25 billion, the highest in more than a decade.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOGI\">Logitech</a>The company fell more than 3%, with first-quarter earnings far below market expectations, and its guidance for fiscal year 2023 was lowered.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax Pharma</a>The stock continued to rise 2% in pre-market trading, after closing up nearly 20% yesterday after the company announced that its COVID-19 vaccine may receive FDA approval on June 7.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>It rose more than 2% in pre-market trading, with plans to complete the restart of 23 ships in May;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis</a>The stock rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading after news broke that Stellantis would acquire SHARE NOW, a car-sharing joint venture between Mercedes-Benz and BMW.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market activity | Bank stocks rise! Countdown to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market activity | Bank stocks rise! Countdown to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-03 16:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3, futures for the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly, with Dow Jones futures up 0.24%, Nasdaq futures up 0.23%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ba20f4cfe41f9a521f938c50f8b5eb5\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Most U.S. bank stocks rose in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Up nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Rising nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>A slight increase; The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day interest rate decision from May 3 to May 4, 2022 (US time), and will announce the results at 02:00 AM Beijing time on May 5.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>The stock rose more than 5% in pre-market trading after reporting Q1 adjusted net profit of $6.25 billion, the highest in more than a decade.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOGI\">Logitech</a>The company fell more than 3%, with first-quarter earnings far below market expectations, and its guidance for fiscal year 2023 was lowered.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax Pharma</a>The stock continued to rise 2% in pre-market trading, after closing up nearly 20% yesterday after the company announced that its COVID-19 vaccine may receive FDA approval on June 7.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>It rose more than 2% in pre-market trading, with plans to complete the restart of 23 ships in May;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis</a>The stock rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading after news broke that Stellantis would acquire SHARE NOW, a car-sharing joint venture between Mercedes-Benz and BMW.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186502796","content_text":"5月3日，美股三大股指期货小幅走高，道指期货涨0.24%，纳指期货涨0.23%，标普500指数期货涨0.26%。美股银行股盘前多数走高，巴克莱银行涨近4%，汇丰涨近3%，德意志银行涨超2%，美国银行、摩根大通、花旗小幅上涨；美联储在美国时间的2022年5月3日至5月4日召开为期两日的利率决议，在北京时间的5月5日凌晨02:00公布利率决议结果。英国石油盘前涨超5%，Q1调整后净利润62.5亿美元，为十多年来最高；罗技跌超3%，第一季度收益远低于市场预期，下调2023财年指引；诺瓦瓦克斯医药盘前续涨2%，该股昨日大幅收涨近20%，此前公司表示新冠疫苗或于6月7日获得美FDA授权；嘉年华邮轮盘前涨超2%，5月份计划完成23艘船的重新启动；Stellantis盘前涨近2%，消息称Stellantis将收购奔驰与宝马的汽车共享合资公司SHARE NOW。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}