Lionel8383
Lionel8383
captainmarket.co
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PEG Ratio is a better metric than PE

Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ just reported earnings on Wednesday after close. At a glance, FY25 Q2 non-GAAP EPS $0.68 beats by $0.04, revenue $30.04B (+122.4%) beats by $1.31B. Data Center revenue $26.3B, up 154% from year ago & 16% from Q1. Q3 guidance revenue $32.5B vs expect $31.75B. Initiates $50B buyback.  Stock falls more than 6.8%, which shows that marlets are always behaving irrationally. Hence I would like to highlight an important metric that is overlooked. Price to Earnings Growth Ratio Oftentimes, investors look at the Price to Earnings ratio of a stock and think that the stock is expensive. NVDA metrics from Finviz One good source I use for researchIng stocks is looking at Finviz, and search the stock ticker symbol. I
PEG Ratio is a better metric than PE

How to own 100 shares for low cost

Today let me share with you a options strategy on how to own 100 shares for very little cost. Suppose if you think interest rates will be coming down soon, then bond prices will rise. One way to go bullish on bonds is to trade the iShares 20yr+ ETF ($iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ ).  As of Thursday August 22, TLT last closing price was $97.75. To buy 100 shares, it will cost $97.75 x 100 = $9,775. For some traders, that is a huge cost of investment.  Let me show you a more cost effective way instead, using a bullish synthetic option strategy. A bullish synthetic option spread involves buying a call option and selling a put option at the same strike price and expiration date. This option trade is equivalent to owning a 100 share
How to own 100 shares for low cost

GEOV gains more than 110% on Friday

Geovax soars on Mpox news recently. This is often one of the tricks of the market maker, to make use of the news to lure retail buyers in. Let’s play a game and see if you understand how price action works. If you see a stock price going parabolic and almost vertical, do you think after that it will go: A. Higher  B. Lower
GEOV gains more than 110% on Friday
GameStop is something you should never put your money into. Its business is declining unless it can reinvent itself. Gamers are buying games from their respective console online game stores, and PC gamers on Steam and EA Online.  Even if the whales are shorting them, let it be and just watch the show. Then go invest into names that you know will be the winners in 3 to 5 years time that will compound your wealth.
Haven't posted in a long time. Not very active using Tiger now. But seeing the hype in GameStop made me post this. Consumers are now buying games as digital downloads as it's more convenient. I bought a PlayStation 5 recently and I went with the digital edition, as I do not foresee I will be buying physical copies of games. The advantage is that I wouldn't need extra space to keep the games, and the disadvantage would be I can't sell off games when I am done. It's unlikely GameStop will be able to turn things around. For those who got sucked into 2024's mini meme rally, maybe you would learn a lesson from Mr Market.

How do you control 100 shares of Apple for $903?

Let's explore an Options Strategy known as a Bullish Synthetic spread, which allows an options trader to control 100 shares for less capital compared to buying 100 shares of a stock. Options chain for AAPL expiring on Apr 19 Suppose one is bullish on Apple, and Apple is currently trading at $181 (as of the time of this writing). If you want to buy 100 shares, the capital required (not including commissions) is $181 x 100 = $18,100. For every $1 rise in the stock of Apple, the gain on the position is $100, and vice versa. Let's explore a strategy that allows you to control 100 shares of Apple for less capital, and that is done by a Bullish Synthetic spread, by entering a Call option on a buy leg, and a Put option on a sell leg. First select an options expiration, in which I have selected Ap
How do you control 100 shares of Apple for $903?

Magnificent Seven starting to become Mag6 in 2024

Magnificent Seven-ex Tesla has driven the S&P 500 to close at 1.47% year-to-date after the first three weeks of 2024. Expecting the group to push higher this year due to strong balance sheets and their revenue growth (except Tesla) will be less immune to the effects in the event the Fed does not hike the 6 rate cuts the market is pricing in. As Tesla is primarily selling cars, if interest rates remain higher for longer, revenues will remain pressured this year, coupled with intense competition from Chinese EV makers. Year-to-Date Magnificent Seven gain (loss) Nvidia +20.13% Meta +6.26% Alphabet +4.79% Microsoft +4.74% Amazon +2.24% Apple -0.50% Tesla -14.6% S&P 500 +1.47% Nasdaq Composite +2.0% Dow Jones +0.46% $Microsoft(MSFT)$  
Magnificent Seven starting to become Mag6 in 2024

Can’t stop the rot in Chinese stocks

A recent article on SCMP revealed that pessimism in Chinese stocks has been the highest amongst foreign investors.  The recent fund managers survey by Bank of America Global Research found that fund managers are now more net short on Chinese equities compared to the previous three months, and also are more bullish on the Japanese market.  BofA Global Research FMS survey Indeed the Chinese CSI 300 index, which comprises of 300 top companies listed on Shanghai & Shenzhen Exchanges is now down 4.5% in 2024. Over the past 6 months, it is down 14.3%, and past one year down 20.7% Stocks like Alibaba, perhaps a hot favourite among investors here have suffered greatly. Year-to-date Baba is down 12.2%, after paring back some losses on Friday afternoon due to monthly options expiration
Can’t stop the rot in Chinese stocks
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-24

Regulation Policy Risk for Chinese Stocks

Last Friday's sudden draft rules on gaming hit Tencent & NetEase hard, and in the Friday's trading session on the US market TCEHY fell 9.8%, while NTES fell 16%. Bilibili fell around 4.9%. According to a Bloomberg report, that had wiped out $80 billion in Tencent, NetEase and Bilibili combine market value on the Hong Kong and China exchanges. The draft rules are designed to protect users from spending too much time and money on online gaming. Rewards cannot be given for daily logins, first-time recharge, and continuous recharge. All online games must set user recharge limits and announce them in service rules. In addition to that, pop up warnings should be issued for irrational consumption behaviour. Also also include caps on the amount each player can spend within a game. Online game
Regulation Policy Risk for Chinese Stocks
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-21

Baba Value Trap or Real Value?

Alibaba trades at a low multiple of 10 times forward earnings, compared to Amazon that trades at 57 times for PE. BABA valuations (source Seeking Alpha) AMZN valuations  If we were to compare the price alone, Alibaba is trading around $75, which is around the price back in June 2016. Looking at their financials, for FY ending March 2016, basic EPS was $4.50 per share, compared to today’s Trailing Twelve Month EPS of $7.05. At the end of FY 2016, total revenues was $15.67 billion, gross profit of $10.34 billion and operating income of $$4.5 billion. Comparing to today’s (trailing twelve month) revenue of $125.31 billion, gross profit of $47.28 billion and operating income of $18.37 billion. So that creates this huge doubt that many Baba bagholders have in their minds, why isn’t the sh
Baba Value Trap or Real Value?
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-19

What an incredible year of 2023!

I hope everyone here has been having an amazing year this year. Heading into the year, the economists were all expecting a recession, that the market was going to crash further beyond the closing low 3,577.04 made on October 12, 2022. As the year continued, especially towards the end of March when the MA 200 started sloping upwards which signifies a long term uptrend, most bears were still bearish and they insisted that it was a bear market rally. The AI theme started to play out around late May after Nvidia reported earnings and the stock jumped 24% after revenue surprise of 10% and earnings surprise of 18%. Again the bears were calling that AI is a bubble, and the gains driven by the Magnificent Seven of Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon & Tesla was what was mainly dr
What an incredible year of 2023!
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-18
Definitely richer than before Covid in 2019! Being able to capitalise on stocks like $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ in 2022 and early 2023 when they were unloved helped me to start realising the importance of investor psychology, which is to be greedy when others are fearful.
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-12

Some simple indicators I use

Let me share some basic indicators which I use to look at my charts on a daily basis. The first is using SMA 50, 100, 150, 200 and together with EMA 20 & 40. When the EMA 20 is above EMA 40, the price action is on short term uptrend. When SMA 50 above 150, implies medium term uptrend. Lastly when price is above SMA 200, and sloping upwards implies long term uptrend. One easy way to look for resistance and support is to check how the price rebound previously. In Apple's daily chart, it rebounded or tested the 200 SMA, and usually a rebound off the 200 SMA is very bullish price action reversal. This is because the market maker hunt for stop losses below the 200 SMA and make those traders who set their stop loss there to close and exit their trades, and subsequently the stock price action
Some simple indicators I use
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-11

What if you had $10k to invest? Hypothetical portfolio analysis

A hypothetical portfolio Suppose if I had only US$10,000 to invest, what stocks would I pick? Well we could just easily say that we choose only the Magnificent Seven (M7), made up of Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon & Tesla. However that would mean that our stocks are heavily concentrated in technology, communication services and consumer discretionary and would result in a highly unbalanced portfolio that might leave us to quite some downside risk should the market crash, as most of these stocks have similar correlations in price movements. Let’s say we are only allowed to pick 2 of the M7, so I would choose Alphabet & Amazon. Alphabet is the parent company of Google, YouTube and are used by millions, if not billions worldwide. Alphabet’s EPS is expected to grow at
What if you had $10k to invest? Hypothetical portfolio analysis
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-10
Especially delta as its the probability that the trade will end up in the money by expiration. Buying options out of the money is like going to a casino. Selling options is a higher win rate provided you can manage your risk
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-09
Stupid mistake because he bought options, when you are a buyer of options, you are fighting against time. The value of your options are decreasing due to decrease in extrinsic value. In the end, most options expire worthless. Also options strategies are very complex, and if you dont know your greeks, you would be as good as swimming blindfolded
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-09

2023 was better than initially expected

2023 was better than expected, as we headed into the year fearing that a recession would happen.However as ChatGPT played out at the beginning of the year, technology stocks like Meta & Microsoft started gaining traction. Recall that in 2022, Meta was one of the most hated stocks, that advertisers were not spending their dollars, and people were calling that it was the end of Meta. In terms of realised loss, the worse was Disney as I decided to cut losses and exit my position in the house of mouse. Rate of return as of December stands at 56%. @TigerStars $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  $Walt Disney(DIS)$ 
2023 was better than initially expected
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-08
I remembered back in January, I was considering a buy limit order on$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ when it was trading around $155. At that time I was still holding a losing trade in$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and was underwater in my long at$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ . After the limit order didn't fill, I decided maybe it was best to do nothing. And then Nvidia became $200, then $250, $300, $350, $400. Unfortunately the boat has sailed on. 
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-02

S&P 500 closed at its best level in 2023 on Dec 1st!

The S&P 500 closed at 4,594.64 points on Friday December 2nd, 2023 to advance 0.77% for the week and notches its best close of 2023. A few reasons for the strong move in the broad market index this week, as Cyber Monday that followed last week’s Black Friday had set new records for consumer spending. On Wednesday, the second estimate of U.S. Q3 GDP growth was revised to 5.2%, surpassing the previous estimate of 4.9% and stronger than the rise of 2.1% in Q2. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation guage, core PCE advanced 3.5% Y/Y in October and cooling from September’s 3.7%, while PCE gained 3.0% in line with estimates and retreating from 3.4% in September. On Friday, Fed chair Jerome Powell was speaking at a fireside chat at Spelman College, and in his opening remarks h
S&P 500 closed at its best level in 2023 on Dec 1st!
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-01

Yum China bear trap (bullish)

Price action on Yum China (which is the China business of KFC, Pizza Hut in China) has created a bear trap to lure in retail traders who are thinking of shorting YUMC. Price action has taken out stop losses of retail who have placed stop losses below previous swing low, and has formed with a bullish green hammer on Thursday's trading session.  If follow up price action on Friday (Dec 1st) can push above previous close, enter a buy stop limit at around $43.25. Attach a stop loss of $40.25 if the price breaks below.  Morningstar carries a fair value of $80 for Yum China. @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  $Yum China Holdings, Inc.(Y
Yum China bear trap (bullish)

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