Lionel8383
Lionel8383
Profile:captainmarket.co
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How do you control 100 shares of Apple for $903?

Let's explore an Options Strategy known as a Bullish Synthetic spread, which allows an options trader to control 100 shares for less capital compared to buying 100 shares of a stock. Options chain for AAPL expiring on Apr 19 Suppose one is bullish on Apple, and Apple is currently trading at $181 (as of the time of this writing). If you want to buy 100 shares, the capital required (not including commissions) is $181 x 100 = $18,100. For every $1 rise in the stock of Apple, the gain on the position is $100, and vice versa. Let's explore a strategy that allows you to control 100 shares of Apple for less capital, and that is done by a Bullish Synthetic spread, by entering a Call option on a buy leg, and a Put option on a sell leg. First select an options expiration, in which I have selected Ap
How do you control 100 shares of Apple for $903?

Magnificent Seven starting to become Mag6 in 2024

Magnificent Seven-ex Tesla has driven the S&P 500 to close at 1.47% year-to-date after the first three weeks of 2024. Expecting the group to push higher this year due to strong balance sheets and their revenue growth (except Tesla) will be less immune to the effects in the event the Fed does not hike the 6 rate cuts the market is pricing in. As Tesla is primarily selling cars, if interest rates remain higher for longer, revenues will remain pressured this year, coupled with intense competition from Chinese EV makers. Year-to-Date Magnificent Seven gain (loss) Nvidia +20.13% Meta +6.26% Alphabet +4.79% Microsoft +4.74% Amazon +2.24% Apple -0.50% Tesla -14.6% S&P 500 +1.47% Nasdaq Composite +2.0% Dow Jones +0.46% $Microsoft(MSFT)$ &nbs
Magnificent Seven starting to become Mag6 in 2024

Can’t stop the rot in Chinese stocks

A recent article on SCMP revealed that pessimism in Chinese stocks has been the highest amongst foreign investors.  The recent fund managers survey by Bank of America Global Research found that fund managers are now more net short on Chinese equities compared to the previous three months, and also are more bullish on the Japanese market.  BofA Global Research FMS survey Indeed the Chinese CSI 300 index, which comprises of 300 top companies listed on Shanghai & Shenzhen Exchanges is now down 4.5% in 2024. Over the past 6 months, it is down 14.3%, and past one year down 20.7% Stocks like Alibaba, perhaps a hot favourite among investors here have suffered greatly. Year-to-date Baba is down 12.2%, after paring back some losses on Friday afternoon due to monthly options expiratio
Can’t stop the rot in Chinese stocks
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-24

Regulation Policy Risk for Chinese Stocks

Last Friday's sudden draft rules on gaming hit Tencent & NetEase hard, and in the Friday's trading session on the US market TCEHY fell 9.8%, while NTES fell 16%. Bilibili fell around 4.9%. According to a Bloomberg report, that had wiped out $80 billion in Tencent, NetEase and Bilibili combine market value on the Hong Kong and China exchanges. The draft rules are designed to protect users from spending too much time and money on online gaming. Rewards cannot be given for daily logins, first-time recharge, and continuous recharge. All online games must set user recharge limits and announce them in service rules. In addition to that, pop up warnings should be issued for irrational consumption behaviour. Also also include caps on the amount each player can spend within a game. Online game
Regulation Policy Risk for Chinese Stocks
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-21

Baba Value Trap or Real Value?

Alibaba trades at a low multiple of 10 times forward earnings, compared to Amazon that trades at 57 times for PE. BABA valuations (source Seeking Alpha) AMZN valuations  If we were to compare the price alone, Alibaba is trading around $75, which is around the price back in June 2016. Looking at their financials, for FY ending March 2016, basic EPS was $4.50 per share, compared to today’s Trailing Twelve Month EPS of $7.05. At the end of FY 2016, total revenues was $15.67 billion, gross profit of $10.34 billion and operating income of $$4.5 billion. Comparing to today’s (trailing twelve month) revenue of $125.31 billion, gross profit of $47.28 billion and operating income of $18.37 billion. So that creates this huge doubt that many Baba bagholders have in their minds, why isn’t the sh
Baba Value Trap or Real Value?
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-19

What an incredible year of 2023!

I hope everyone here has been having an amazing year this year. Heading into the year, the economists were all expecting a recession, that the market was going to crash further beyond the closing low 3,577.04 made on October 12, 2022. As the year continued, especially towards the end of March when the MA 200 started sloping upwards which signifies a long term uptrend, most bears were still bearish and they insisted that it was a bear market rally. The AI theme started to play out around late May after Nvidia reported earnings and the stock jumped 24% after revenue surprise of 10% and earnings surprise of 18%. Again the bears were calling that AI is a bubble, and the gains driven by the Magnificent Seven of Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon & Tesla was what was mainly dr
What an incredible year of 2023!
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-18
Definitely richer than before Covid in 2019! Being able to capitalise on stocks like $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ in 2022 and early 2023 when they were unloved helped me to start realising the importance of investor psychology, which is to be greedy when others are fearful.
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-12

Some simple indicators I use

Let me share some basic indicators which I use to look at my charts on a daily basis. The first is using SMA 50, 100, 150, 200 and together with EMA 20 & 40. When the EMA 20 is above EMA 40, the price action is on short term uptrend. When SMA 50 above 150, implies medium term uptrend. Lastly when price is above SMA 200, and sloping upwards implies long term uptrend. One easy way to look for resistance and support is to check how the price rebound previously. In Apple's daily chart, it rebounded or tested the 200 SMA, and usually a rebound off the 200 SMA is very bullish price action reversal. This is because the market maker hunt for stop losses below the 200 SMA and make those traders who set their stop loss there to close and exit their trades, and subsequently the stock price actio
Some simple indicators I use
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-11

What if you had $10k to invest? Hypothetical portfolio analysis

A hypothetical portfolio Suppose if I had only US$10,000 to invest, what stocks would I pick? Well we could just easily say that we choose only the Magnificent Seven (M7), made up of Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon & Tesla. However that would mean that our stocks are heavily concentrated in technology, communication services and consumer discretionary and would result in a highly unbalanced portfolio that might leave us to quite some downside risk should the market crash, as most of these stocks have similar correlations in price movements. Let’s say we are only allowed to pick 2 of the M7, so I would choose Alphabet & Amazon. Alphabet is the parent company of Google, YouTube and are used by millions, if not billions worldwide. Alphabet’s EPS is expected to grow at
What if you had $10k to invest? Hypothetical portfolio analysis
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-10
Especially delta as its the probability that the trade will end up in the money by expiration. Buying options out of the money is like going to a casino. Selling options is a higher win rate provided you can manage your risk
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-09
Stupid mistake because he bought options, when you are a buyer of options, you are fighting against time. The value of your options are decreasing due to decrease in extrinsic value. In the end, most options expire worthless. Also options strategies are very complex, and if you dont know your greeks, you would be as good as swimming blindfolded
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-09

2023 was better than initially expected

2023 was better than expected, as we headed into the year fearing that a recession would happen.However as ChatGPT played out at the beginning of the year, technology stocks like Meta & Microsoft started gaining traction. Recall that in 2022, Meta was one of the most hated stocks, that advertisers were not spending their dollars, and people were calling that it was the end of Meta. In terms of realised loss, the worse was Disney as I decided to cut losses and exit my position in the house of mouse. Rate of return as of December stands at 56%. @TigerStars $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  $Walt Disney(DIS)$ 
2023 was better than initially expected
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-08
I remembered back in January, I was considering a buy limit order on$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ when it was trading around $155. At that time I was still holding a losing trade in$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and was underwater in my long at$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ . After the limit order didn't fill, I decided maybe it was best to do nothing. And then Nvidia became $200, then $250, $300, $350, $400. Unfortunately the boat has sailed on. 
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-02

S&P 500 closed at its best level in 2023 on Dec 1st!

The S&P 500 closed at 4,594.64 points on Friday December 2nd, 2023 to advance 0.77% for the week and notches its best close of 2023. A few reasons for the strong move in the broad market index this week, as Cyber Monday that followed last week’s Black Friday had set new records for consumer spending. On Wednesday, the second estimate of U.S. Q3 GDP growth was revised to 5.2%, surpassing the previous estimate of 4.9% and stronger than the rise of 2.1% in Q2. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation guage, core PCE advanced 3.5% Y/Y in October and cooling from September’s 3.7%, while PCE gained 3.0% in line with estimates and retreating from 3.4% in September. On Friday, Fed chair Jerome Powell was speaking at a fireside chat at Spelman College, and in his opening remarks h
S&P 500 closed at its best level in 2023 on Dec 1st!
avatarLionel8383
2023-12-01

Yum China bear trap (bullish)

Price action on Yum China (which is the China business of KFC, Pizza Hut in China) has created a bear trap to lure in retail traders who are thinking of shorting YUMC. Price action has taken out stop losses of retail who have placed stop losses below previous swing low, and has formed with a bullish green hammer on Thursday's trading session.  If follow up price action on Friday (Dec 1st) can push above previous close, enter a buy stop limit at around $43.25. Attach a stop loss of $40.25 if the price breaks below.  Morningstar carries a fair value of $80 for Yum China. @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  $Yum China Holdings, Inc.
Yum China bear trap (bullish)
avatarLionel8383
2023-11-30

Wide moat beats narrow or no moat investing in the long run

When a new investor starts his journey in picking stocks, very often no thought process is given to the economic moat or management quality of the company. What is economic moat? An economic moat is a concept popularized by Warren Buffett, describing a company's sustainable competitive advantage that allows it to maintain its market position and fend off competition. Similar to a castle's moat protecting it from invaders, an economic moat protects a company from competitors trying to erode its profits and market share. There are several types of economic moats that can contribute to a company's competitive advantage: Cost Advantage: When a company can produce goods or services at a lower cost compared to its competitors. This could be due to proprietary technology, efficient processes, ac
Wide moat beats narrow or no moat investing in the long run
avatarLionel8383
2023-11-23

TLT short term bullishness

Short term bullishness in TLT (I shares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF), price target in the short term (6 months) is $110 (upside 22%) assuming no more further rate hikes in Fed Funds rate (currently 5.25% to 5.5%) and if the market foresees a rate cut in H2 2024, and by as much as 100 bp by end 2024. When US 10 year falls, TLT rises. Hence when US 10 year peaked at 5.0% and reversed downwards, signalling the bottom for TLT.  EMA 20 crossover EMA 40, indicating short term bullishness for TLT @TigerStars  $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Invesco QQQ Tr
TLT short term bullishness
avatarLionel8383
2023-11-20

The time is now to exit Sea if you are still holding the 💰

Sea Limited (parent company of Shopee, Garena, in case you were not aware) has plunged by around 17% last week after announcing earnings last Tuesday. The Singapore-based tech giant swung back to a net loss of $143.99 million in the third quarter, compared to a net income of $331 million in the second quarter. Sea gets a quant warning on Seeking Alpha Intense competition with no moat Sea is facing intense competition from Alibaba's Lazada and ByteDance's TikTok, as well as Pinduoduo's Temu and from seasoned e-commerce giant Amazon in the Southeast Asia region, in which Shopee operates.  Chairman and Group CEO Forrest Li mentioned that "We will prioritise investing in the business to increase our market share and further strength of market leadership. Our move to self sufficiency and p
The time is now to exit Sea if you are still holding the 💰
avatarLionel8383
2023-11-19

Year-to-date Portfolio Top & Bottom Performers

As we head towards the last 1.5 months remaining in 2023, I currently believe the market will soon be testing all time highs soon. As of Friday's close of 4,514.03 on the S&P 500, the bench mark is now around 5.8% of the closing high of 4,796.57 made on Jan 3, 2022. Year-to-date, technology sector is up by 43.79%, followed by communication services +43%, and consumer cyclical +25.25%. Meanwhile laggards are utilities -11.17%, real estate -5.16% and consumer defensive -4.78%. My portfolio top and bottom performers Top Performers Meta +114%,  Microsoft +40%,  CME Group +21%,  Google +16.9%, Bottom Performers (or bagholders) JD -26%,  Estee Lauder -21.7%,  Alibaba -15.6% @TigerStars 
Year-to-date Portfolio Top & Bottom Performers
avatarLionel8383
2023-11-02

WeWork collapsed, lessons to be learnt from IPOs!

WeWork has filed for bankruptcy protection. Once backed by Softbank and other top VCs and valued at $49 billion, the company made its stock market debut via SPAC merger in October 2021, trading for $11 at a market cap of $9 billion. Today it’s 99% down. The company has been burning cash since its statements are made public. Revenue growth inconsistent, net income & EBITDA negative. Free cash flow and operating cashflow has been negative. No economic moat. Not everything that IPOs is investable. In fact IPOs are used to transfer wealth from investors to the venture capitalists who have stakes in the IPO company. If the investor had done some basic checks using Gurufocus, Seeking Alpha & Morningstar, he would have known that this wasn’t a good investment to begin with. How to dec
WeWork collapsed, lessons to be learnt from IPOs!

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