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Alex 贤
2022-05-19
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There are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?
Alex 贤
2022-05-16
$叮咚买菜(DDL)$
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Which stage is the US stock market in now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169142248","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is the US stock market bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is none yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has led investors to focus on finding entry opportunities rather than worrying about another sharp market decline.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eagerness to buy at the bottom is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually descend, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this does not mean that US stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rebound than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that when a bear market actually bottoms out, almost no investors will consider this possibility. Bear market bottoms occur when investors are not even paying attention because they have become so frustrated that they have given up or regard any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Clearly, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief: denial, anger, cutting back on living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they performed in the stock market:</p><p>Denial phase: In this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of being angry, investors remained quite optimistic because the market correction provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>Anger phase: As the market correction becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investors' emotions eventually turned to anger as they complained about the unfairness of the withdrawal. One characteristic of this phase is that investors view withdrawals as an insult to individuals, as if the market should care whether investors lose money.</p><p>Reduce living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle if their portfolio is hit. Retirees are restructuring their financial plans, forgoing certain purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration phase: As the market continues to decline, people begin to realize that simply reducing spending is not enough and that significant lifestyle changes are needed. People nearing retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and some retirees are even returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance phase: Investors admit defeat; they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a foolish rebound, tempting those who are easily fooled to lose more money in the next round of declines.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market at now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the US stock market has not yet passed the second phase. While not all investors are on the same page, overall market sentiment tends to suggest that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the market's current vulnerability is largely unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and misleading. Currently, there are signs in the market that Wall Street institutions are \"surrendering,\" but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors truly admit defeat, no one shouts about admitting defeat; instead, they are indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the five stages mentioned above, because not all corrections will evolve into a typical bear market. These discussions do not mean that the market will inevitably fall further. However, optimists want the market to turn around and must wait until investors truly surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are five stages of a bear market. 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Which stage is the US stock market in now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-18 14:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is the US stock market bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is none yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has led investors to focus on finding entry opportunities rather than worrying about another sharp market decline.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eagerness to buy at the bottom is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually descend, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this does not mean that US stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rebound than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that when a bear market actually bottoms out, almost no investors will consider this possibility. Bear market bottoms occur when investors are not even paying attention because they have become so frustrated that they have given up or regard any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Clearly, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief: denial, anger, cutting back on living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they performed in the stock market:</p><p>Denial phase: In this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of being angry, investors remained quite optimistic because the market correction provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>Anger phase: As the market correction becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investors' emotions eventually turned to anger as they complained about the unfairness of the withdrawal. One characteristic of this phase is that investors view withdrawals as an insult to individuals, as if the market should care whether investors lose money.</p><p>Reduce living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle if their portfolio is hit. Retirees are restructuring their financial plans, forgoing certain purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration phase: As the market continues to decline, people begin to realize that simply reducing spending is not enough and that significant lifestyle changes are needed. People nearing retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and some retirees are even returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance phase: Investors admit defeat; they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a foolish rebound, tempting those who are easily fooled to lose more money in the next round of declines.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market at now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the US stock market has not yet passed the second phase. While not all investors are on the same page, overall market sentiment tends to suggest that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the market's current vulnerability is largely unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and misleading. Currently, there are signs in the market that Wall Street institutions are \"surrendering,\" but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors truly admit defeat, no one shouts about admitting defeat; instead, they are indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the five stages mentioned above, because not all corrections will evolve into a typical bear market. These discussions do not mean that the market will inevitably fall further. However, optimists want the market to turn around and must wait until investors truly surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169142248","content_text":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。标普500指数现在比历史高点低16%，纳指和罗素2000依旧位于熊市区间。但近期国际环境的边际改善，使得投资者开始专注于寻找入场的机会，而不是担心市场再一次深跌。分析师、财经专栏作家Mark Hulbert认为，这种跃跃欲试的抄底气势，更让人想起熊市通常会下降的“希望斜坡”，而不是牛市喜欢爬的“担忧之墙”。注意，这并不是说，美股无法在当前水平上实现令人印象深刻的反弹。如果真是这样的话，它更有可能是一场熊市反弹，而不是一轮新的牛市行情的开始。过去的熊市显示，当熊市真的触底时，几乎没有投资者会考虑这种可能性，熊市底是在投资者甚至不会关注的时候出现的，因为投资者已经变得如此沮丧以至于认输了，要么将任何市场强势的迹象视为熊市陷阱。显然，华尔街当前的情绪，并不符合熊市底的特征。熊市心理学的发展过程类似于心理学家所说的悲伤的五个阶段，分别是否认、愤怒、缩减生活支出、沮丧和接受。以下是它们在股市中的表现：否认阶段：在这一初始阶段，市场流行的观点是，股市疲软只不过是一个买入机会。投资者非但没有感到愤怒，反而保持了相当乐观的态度，因为市场的回调提供了一个机会，可以以比牛市持续下去更便宜的价格购买股票。愤怒阶段：随着市场回调变得过于严重，否认变得越来越难以维持。投资者的情绪最终演变为愤怒，因为他们抱怨撤资的不公平。这一阶段的一个特点是，投资者将撤资视为对个人的侮辱，就好像市场应该关心投资者是否赔钱。缩减生活支出阶段：投资者将精力重新引导到，弄清楚自己是否能够在投资组合受到冲击的情况下，维持自己的生活方式上。退休人员重新制定他们的财务计划，放弃一些商品购买或者度假开销。尽管这些开销只是他们预算中的一部分。沮丧阶段：随着市场持续下滑，人们开始意识到仅仅减少开支是不够的，生活方式需要重大改变。接近退休的人的工作时间比原计划的要长，更有甚者退休人员重返工作岗位。接受阶段：投资者认输，他们屈服于熊市，甚至不再幻想熊市何时结束。他们把任何市场强势的迹象都视为一场愚蠢的反弹，诱使那些容易上当的人在下一轮下跌中损失更多的钱。美股现在到哪个阶段了？Mark Hulbert 认为，现在美股市场没有超过第二个阶段。虽然不是所有投资者都处在同一频率，但是整体上，市场展示的情绪倾向于认为现在的回调是一个买入的机会，或者认为市场目前呈现的脆弱基本是不公平的。有时候，市场传递的信息也是无序的，有迷惑性的。目前市场中，也出现华尔街机构”缴械投降“的迹象，但这并不一定是可靠的。Mark Hulbert 认为，投资者真正认输的时候，没有人会嚷嚷认输，而是对市场冷漠，对其他信号漠不关心。当然，并不是所有的股市下跌都会经历以上5各阶段，因为不是所有的调整都会演变为典型熊市。这些讨论也并不是说，市场必然会跌得更多。但是，乐观者想要市场转向，必须等到投资者真正投降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020654477,"gmtCreate":1652634746499,"gmtModify":1676535131761,"author":{"id":"4113978174748722","authorId":"4113978174748722","name":"Alex 贤","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/255e3d3acc1bf1a395ef225c984907a8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113978174748722","authorIdStr":"4113978174748722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DDL\">$叮咚买菜(DDL)$</a>😁😁","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DDL\">$叮咚买菜(DDL)$</a>😁😁","text":"$叮咚买菜(DDL)$😁😁","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46bf379295a287087440e2dda3499f93","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020654477","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9020654477,"gmtCreate":1652634746499,"gmtModify":1676535131761,"author":{"id":"4113978174748722","authorId":"4113978174748722","name":"Alex 贤","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/255e3d3acc1bf1a395ef225c984907a8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4113978174748722","idStr":"4113978174748722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DDL\">$叮咚买菜(DDL)$</a>😁😁","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DDL\">$叮咚买菜(DDL)$</a>😁😁","text":"$叮咚买菜(DDL)$😁😁","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/46bf379295a287087440e2dda3499f93","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020654477","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023419293,"gmtCreate":1652945315613,"gmtModify":1676535194112,"author":{"id":"4113978174748722","authorId":"4113978174748722","name":"Alex 贤","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/255e3d3acc1bf1a395ef225c984907a8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4113978174748722","idStr":"4113978174748722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😵💫","listText":"😵💫","text":"😵💫","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023419293","repostId":"1169142248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169142248","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652856447,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169142248?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 14:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169142248","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is the US stock market bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is none yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has led investors to focus on finding entry opportunities rather than worrying about another sharp market decline.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eagerness to buy at the bottom is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually descend, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this does not mean that US stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rebound than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that when a bear market actually bottoms out, almost no investors will consider this possibility. Bear market bottoms occur when investors are not even paying attention because they have become so frustrated that they have given up or regard any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Clearly, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief: denial, anger, cutting back on living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they performed in the stock market:</p><p>Denial phase: In this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of being angry, investors remained quite optimistic because the market correction provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>Anger phase: As the market correction becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investors' emotions eventually turned to anger as they complained about the unfairness of the withdrawal. One characteristic of this phase is that investors view withdrawals as an insult to individuals, as if the market should care whether investors lose money.</p><p>Reduce living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle if their portfolio is hit. Retirees are restructuring their financial plans, forgoing certain purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration phase: As the market continues to decline, people begin to realize that simply reducing spending is not enough and that significant lifestyle changes are needed. People nearing retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and some retirees are even returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance phase: Investors admit defeat; they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a foolish rebound, tempting those who are easily fooled to lose more money in the next round of declines.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market at now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the US stock market has not yet passed the second phase. While not all investors are on the same page, overall market sentiment tends to suggest that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the market's current vulnerability is largely unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and misleading. Currently, there are signs in the market that Wall Street institutions are \"surrendering,\" but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors truly admit defeat, no one shouts about admitting defeat; instead, they are indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the five stages mentioned above, because not all corrections will evolve into a typical bear market. These discussions do not mean that the market will inevitably fall further. However, optimists want the market to turn around and must wait until investors truly surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are five stages of a bear market. Which stage is the US stock market in now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-18 14:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is the US stock market bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is none yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has led investors to focus on finding entry opportunities rather than worrying about another sharp market decline.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eagerness to buy at the bottom is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually descend, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this does not mean that US stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If that's the case, it's more likely to be a bear market rebound than the start of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that when a bear market actually bottoms out, almost no investors will consider this possibility. Bear market bottoms occur when investors are not even paying attention because they have become so frustrated that they have given up or regard any sign of market strength as a bear market trap.</p><p>Clearly, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief: denial, anger, cutting back on living expenses, frustration, and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they performed in the stock market:</p><p>Denial phase: In this initial phase, the prevailing view in the market is that a weak stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Instead of being angry, investors remained quite optimistic because the market correction provided an opportunity to buy stocks at a cheaper price than if the bull market continued.</p><p>Anger phase: As the market correction becomes too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investors' emotions eventually turned to anger as they complained about the unfairness of the withdrawal. One characteristic of this phase is that investors view withdrawals as an insult to individuals, as if the market should care whether investors lose money.</p><p>Reduce living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle if their portfolio is hit. Retirees are restructuring their financial plans, forgoing certain purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration phase: As the market continues to decline, people begin to realize that simply reducing spending is not enough and that significant lifestyle changes are needed. People nearing retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and some retirees are even returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance phase: Investors admit defeat; they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They see any sign of market strength as a foolish rebound, tempting those who are easily fooled to lose more money in the next round of declines.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market at now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the US stock market has not yet passed the second phase. While not all investors are on the same page, overall market sentiment tends to suggest that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, or that the market's current vulnerability is largely unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information transmitted by the market is disorderly and misleading. Currently, there are signs in the market that Wall Street institutions are \"surrendering,\" but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors truly admit defeat, no one shouts about admitting defeat; instead, they are indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the five stages mentioned above, because not all corrections will evolve into a typical bear market. These discussions do not mean that the market will inevitably fall further. However, optimists want the market to turn around and must wait until investors truly surrender.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169142248","content_text":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。标普500指数现在比历史高点低16%，纳指和罗素2000依旧位于熊市区间。但近期国际环境的边际改善，使得投资者开始专注于寻找入场的机会，而不是担心市场再一次深跌。分析师、财经专栏作家Mark Hulbert认为，这种跃跃欲试的抄底气势，更让人想起熊市通常会下降的“希望斜坡”，而不是牛市喜欢爬的“担忧之墙”。注意，这并不是说，美股无法在当前水平上实现令人印象深刻的反弹。如果真是这样的话，它更有可能是一场熊市反弹，而不是一轮新的牛市行情的开始。过去的熊市显示，当熊市真的触底时，几乎没有投资者会考虑这种可能性，熊市底是在投资者甚至不会关注的时候出现的，因为投资者已经变得如此沮丧以至于认输了，要么将任何市场强势的迹象视为熊市陷阱。显然，华尔街当前的情绪，并不符合熊市底的特征。熊市心理学的发展过程类似于心理学家所说的悲伤的五个阶段，分别是否认、愤怒、缩减生活支出、沮丧和接受。以下是它们在股市中的表现：否认阶段：在这一初始阶段，市场流行的观点是，股市疲软只不过是一个买入机会。投资者非但没有感到愤怒，反而保持了相当乐观的态度，因为市场的回调提供了一个机会，可以以比牛市持续下去更便宜的价格购买股票。愤怒阶段：随着市场回调变得过于严重，否认变得越来越难以维持。投资者的情绪最终演变为愤怒，因为他们抱怨撤资的不公平。这一阶段的一个特点是，投资者将撤资视为对个人的侮辱，就好像市场应该关心投资者是否赔钱。缩减生活支出阶段：投资者将精力重新引导到，弄清楚自己是否能够在投资组合受到冲击的情况下，维持自己的生活方式上。退休人员重新制定他们的财务计划，放弃一些商品购买或者度假开销。尽管这些开销只是他们预算中的一部分。沮丧阶段：随着市场持续下滑，人们开始意识到仅仅减少开支是不够的，生活方式需要重大改变。接近退休的人的工作时间比原计划的要长，更有甚者退休人员重返工作岗位。接受阶段：投资者认输，他们屈服于熊市，甚至不再幻想熊市何时结束。他们把任何市场强势的迹象都视为一场愚蠢的反弹，诱使那些容易上当的人在下一轮下跌中损失更多的钱。美股现在到哪个阶段了？Mark Hulbert 认为，现在美股市场没有超过第二个阶段。虽然不是所有投资者都处在同一频率，但是整体上，市场展示的情绪倾向于认为现在的回调是一个买入的机会，或者认为市场目前呈现的脆弱基本是不公平的。有时候，市场传递的信息也是无序的，有迷惑性的。目前市场中，也出现华尔街机构”缴械投降“的迹象，但这并不一定是可靠的。Mark Hulbert 认为，投资者真正认输的时候，没有人会嚷嚷认输，而是对市场冷漠，对其他信号漠不关心。当然，并不是所有的股市下跌都会经历以上5各阶段，因为不是所有的调整都会演变为典型熊市。这些讨论也并不是说，市场必然会跌得更多。但是，乐观者想要市场转向，必须等到投资者真正投降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}