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Calvinchin

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06-28

And your opinion is not important lol

Adobe: Don't Expect It To Beat The Market Long-Term (Rating Downgrade)

06-07

And nobody cares about your fucking two cents

Nvidia: This Could Be The Top

05-31

Target price? 3600

Should You Buy Nvidia Before the June 7 Stock Split?

04-24

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is the only stock that can make you a millionaire in 5-year time horizon!

03-28

Yahooooooo... Boss Tiger Bronze

2023-12-27

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@WallStreet_Tiger:2023 Recap: Top 10 Most Popular US Stocks in Tiger Community!

2023-09-28

Ride along

2023-06-14

Yield +1000% pleaseeeee... need to quit my day job

2023-06-13

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@OptionsDelta:Unbelievably, the bull market will continue into next year

2023-06-13

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@nerdbull1669:My Trading Strategy For Week of 12-16 June 2023

2023-06-09

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@Tiger_Earnings:New High Stocks: Big Tech vs. Semiconductors! Who Will be the Next?

2022-09-01

2022-08-12

Woohoo

2022-06-29

Haters gonna hate... Nio all the way

Nio Shares Slipped 6% in Premarket Trading

2022-05-27

$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$Good buy

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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your opinion is not important lol","listText":"And your opinion is not important lol","text":"And your opinion is not important lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321683105869928","repostId":"2446592258","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2446592258","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1719552328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2446592258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-28 13:25","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Adobe: Don't Expect It To Beat The Market Long-Term (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2446592258","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Adobe's strategic AI integration solidifies its dominance in professional creative software, potentially outperforming emerging competitors.While Adobe is poised for growth due to increasing demand fo","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>&#39;s strategic AI integration solidifies its dominance in professional creative software, potentially outperforming emerging competitors.</p></li><li><p>While Adobe is poised for growth due to increasing demand for digital content, it faces competition from emerging AI-powered tools and cost-effective alternatives, potentially impacting market share.</p></li><li><p>Adobe&#39;s current valuation is favorable compared to historical levels, but future growth is expected to moderate. A projected 11% 10-year CAGR suggests a stable but low alpha investment opportunity.</p></li></ul><p>I last covered Adobe in January; I put out a Buy rating at the time, and since then, the stock has lost around 14% in price. In large part, I consider this to be because the stock was slightly overvalued at the time. After the recent reduction, I think the stock is more reasonably valued, but I am downgrading my rating to a Hold after more thorough research into the company, which assesses its long-term price CAGR over the next 10+ years as being unlikely to significantly outperform the market. The company has a portfolio of strong software offerings, and while it has developed arguably its most significant moat in creative applications, in my opinion, its CRM solutions are likely to continue to be accretive and scale. I consider Adobe strong because it is integrating AI into its offerings, and I think its flagship product, Photoshop, is likely to significantly outcompete generative AI competitors because of its advanced capabilities, including nuanced editing. Adobe&#39;s moat is in professional creative applications, and I don&#39;t expect this to change—in fact, it has the potential to continue scaling as the technology sector and trends in digitalization continue to expand. However, new vulnerabilities in the changing creator economy warrant caution from investors seeking high long-term price returns.</p><h2 id=\"id_3785247844\">AI-Augmented Professional Creative Sevices</h2><p>Adobe is currently heavily integrating AI across its Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud. AI tools like Adobe Firefly are enhancing the capabilities of applications like Photoshop, Illustrator, and Premiere Pro. Considering the company&#39;s core market has always been professional creatives—a broad market of designers, photographers, videographers, and marketers—the addition of AI arguably places Adobe in an even stronger position than before. I find it unlikely that competitors like OpenAI&#39;s Sora or other generative AI models will be able to compete significantly any time soon in the advanced creative domain. For the foreseeable future, Adobe is likely to retain its moat as the go-to application suite for creative professionals.</p><p>The commercial release of Firefly and its integration into Adobe&#39;s products has already provided evidence that the company&#39;s operational future is bright. Features such as Generative Fill in Photoshop and AI-enhanced video editing tools in Premiere Pro will likely create a new era in the creative profession where old skills become less useful, and the strategy of content creation and the quality of imagination become paramount.</p><p>The company&#39;s enterprise solutions should also not be underestimated, with offerings like GenStudio combining content ideation, creation, production, and activation with generative AI. This domain enhances its moat in professional creative services by placing it as a foundational player in the enterprise content supply chain.</p><p>In my opinion, investors would be wise to notice the quality that Adobe is well known for and has retained through its many decades of operation. The company is well known for being reliable, sophisticated, innovative and advanced relative to the status quo in creative technology. As such, investors should ask themselves whether they believe the company&#39;s values are conducive to long-term and stable stock returns. In my opinion, management has evidenced the correct dose of agility and reinforcing commitment to its biggest technological moats.</p><h2 id=\"id_3112495771\">Growth Catalysts &amp; Competitive Threats</h2><p>With the growing demand for digital content, Adobe&#39;s creative tools and content management solutions are arguably well-positioned for expansion. By expanding its presence in the enterprise sector and through strategic partnerships, such as the integration of Adobe Experience Cloud with Microsoft 365, marketers are likely to be able to work more efficiently, driving customer acquisition and retention. In addition, the partnership focuses on uniting data, content, and processes, and the opportunity for further strategic partnerships remains strong for further future market accretion.</p><p>There are also emerging technologies like augmented reality and virtual reality, which are likely to have heavy creative components, which open up new market opportunities for the company. Adobe Aero is a powerful tool that allows users to create interactive AR experiences, integrating seamlessly with Photoshop, Illustrator, Substance 3D and other Adobe applications. This can be used to create content from virtual exhibits in museums to interactive marketing campaigns. Adobe Substance 3D is a suite of tools designed for creating and texturing 3D models, supporting the creation of immersive VR environments used in fields like gaming, architecture, and entertainment. Management is already preparing for the metaverse by developing tools that can facilitate the creation of interactive 3D worlds. Brands like Coca-Cola (KO), Epic Games, and NASCAR are already collaborating with Adobe to build such experiences.</p><p>As I mentioned previously, some analysts are arguing that generative AI from companies like OpenAI, Google (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) might be able to take market share from Adobe. Partly, this could be true at the lower ends of the market, but I see it unlikely for the bespoke and sophisticated creative markets. There are also high-quality open-source creative tools and free alternatives (like Canva for graphics) that might erode Adobe&#39;s market share. Again, this is likely to be eroded in the market for individual creators or small businesses. The question Adobe&#39;s shareholders would be wise to ask is whether we are moving toward an economy of individual creators as time progresses—an economic quality that might become evermore present as AI becomes more capable of automating corporate functions. According to Goldman Sachs, the creator economy is expected to roughly double from $250B in 2023 to $480B by 2027. Its report states that the number of global creators is projected to grow at a 10-20% CAGR over the next five years.</p><h2 id=\"id_72803000\">Financial &amp; Peer Analysis</h2><p>In my opinion, the top three publicly traded companies that pose a competitive threat to Adobe over the next 10 years are Microsoft, Salesforce (CRM) and Autodesk (ADSK).</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>Microsoft competes in several key areas, including cloud services, productivity software, and design tools.</p></li><li><p>Salesforce competes in the customer relationship management and marketing automation fields.</p></li><li><p>Autodesk competes with Adobe in 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software markets.</p></li></ol><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>ADBE</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>MSFT</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>CRM</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>ADSK</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Historical FWD Revenue Growth 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.59%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.99%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19.53%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.21%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Historical FWD Diluted EPS Growth 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19.06%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.66%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.65%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.66%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Historical FWD Free Cash Flow Growth 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.76%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.66%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25.39%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Equity-to-Asset Ratio</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.62</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.22</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>TTM Net Income Margin 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.50%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.67%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FWD P/E GAAP Ratio</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.70</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.78</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Adobe has a notably high net margin compared to its peers, and its growth rates are highly competitive—better than Microsoft in top and bottom lines and free cash flow growth over the past five years. In my opinion, each of these companies is likely to benefit from margin expansion due to automation and AI, but in my opinion, ADBE, MSFT, and CRM are likely to experience more accretive results from their proprietary AI integrated into their systems bespoke, as opposed to ADSK, whose proprietary AI models such Project Bernini are tailored to specific niche use-cases rather than having broader enterprise applications. Adobe&#39;s Sensei, Microsoft&#39;s Azure AI and Dynamics 365 AI, and Salesforce&#39;s Einstein AI are well-integrated across their respective platforms.</p><p>As I mentioned above, Adobe&#39;s integration of AI into its products has been the core driver of its recent success. In Q2 2024 earnings, the company&#39;s generative AI model was reported to have significant adoption, increasing the Creative Cloud subscriber rates. For the quarter, Adobe reported 11% YoY revenue growth, and it attributed its generative AI Firefly model family and the Acrobat AI Assistant as having played a crucial role in driving subscription rates and user retention due to efficiency benefits. In my opinion, the company is on to something crucial here as most of its customers use its products for professional use cases, and the efficiency gains provided by the company&#39;s AI services are likely to boost users&#39; personal or enterprise cash flows.</p><p>Over the next few years, Wall Street analysts are estimating that the firm&#39;s revenue growth is likely to ease to around 11% per annum. I think this is a reasonable expectation, but I also think the company is likely to maintain these still strong growth rates quite consistently over the next decade as its position in advanced AI creative services becomes more prominent. As a result, the current valuation looks quite appealing to me compared to historically, even if we are likely to see a moderate correction in valuation multiples.</p><h2 id=\"id_436422991\">Value Analysis &amp; Price Target</h2><p>Adobe has rich valuation multiples, but as the following table shows, this is not unusual for companies in its field. As we can also see, ADBE stock is currently trading at a discount from its five-year average in both FWD P/E GAAP and P/S ratios. This is warranted because the company&#39;s future earnings estimates are likely to be somewhat lower moving forward, which is the consensus on Wall Street and also logical if we consider the market saturation and growing competitive threats, which include a potentially new creator economy that is evolving to be reliant on cheaper AI creative solutions, like DALL·E, ChatGPT, and cheaper graphic design platforms like Canva—all a significant threat to Photoshop.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>ADBE</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>MSFT</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>CRM</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>ADSK</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FWD P/E GAAP Ratio</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.70</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.78</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FWD P/E GAAP Ratio 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NM</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>94.09</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FWD P/S Ratio</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13.58</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.51</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FWD P/S Ratio 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13.09</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.37</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.47</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11.05</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>This comes at a time when Microsoft, arguably Adobe&#39;s largest competitor, has an expanding P/S and P/E ratio. Again, this is arguably warranted because the company has been expanding its net margin much more aggressively than Adobe over the past 10 years, whose net margin has actually contracted from its median over the time period by about 2 percentage points.</p><p>In my opinion, it is not unreasonable to expect Adobe&#39;s P/E GAAP ratio to contract slightly more over the next decade as its fundamental growth begins to stabilize into more moderate annual rates. I believe a P/E GAAP ratio of around 35 is one reasonable prediction for the company in 2034. In addition, I am forecasting 12.5% annual EPS growth over the next decade, resulting in a 2034 price target of $1,272.95, as the current basic EPS is $11.20. The implied 10-year CAGR is 9%, as the current stock price is $526.88.</p><p>However, there is also the possibility that its P/E ratio does not contract as much as this. In an alternative scenario where the company&#39;s P/E ratio contracts to only 40 over the period, the 2034 price target would be $1,454.80. The implied 10-year CAGR would then be 10.7%.</p><p>I think 12.5% EPS growth over the next decade is reasonable to predict because while there might be gains in growth in creative markets as a result of administrative jobs becoming automated, as I mentioned in my operations analysis above, the economy of individual creators with smaller budgets is also likely to grow. If, as one would hope, they choose the sophisticated and slightly more expensive models offered by Adobe, the company may be able to achieve a 10-year 15% EPS CAGR, which would result in a price target of $1,902.77 if the company&#39;s P/E ratio is 42 in 2034. The implied CAGR in this instance would be 13.9%.</p><p>In my opinion, the likely outcome here is a 2034 stock price of approximately $1,500 and a 10-year CAGR of approximately 11%. For this reason, primarily, my rating is a Hold despite the operational positives surrounding AI that the firm has set itself up to deliver.</p><h2 id=\"id_2056015049\">Risk Analysis &amp; Closing Sentiments</h2><p>I consider Adobe to be an excellent company. Part of what I admire about it and why I believe it offers a good place in portfolios despite it being unlikely that it will outperform the market long-term is that it offers a slow and steady approach to wealth accumulation. In my opinion, Adobe is a good investment for those who are risk-averse. However, such investments don&#39;t provide exposure to the higher returns one might be looking for in the technology markets.</p><p>Momentum and value investors might benefit from short-term results related to AI integrations and a cheap valuation compared to historically, but over a long-term horizon, investors should expect this to stabilize into more moderate annual growth unless certain catalysts like advances in the individual creator economy prove to be highly accretive to Adobe despite growing cost-effective competition.</p><p>The future economy that could arise with the growing utilization of digital economies like YouTube and the metaverse could catalyze Adobe&#39;s growth, but it also opens up areas of vulnerability. As artificial intelligence capabilities scale, a period of rapid technological change is likely to ensue. This creates shifting business models and arguably a software market that becomes democratized. There are already multiple AI-led companies that are producing cheaper software solutions, like Photoshop, at a huge reduction in price but with high levels of technical capability.</p><p>Adobe would likely benefit from adapting its strategy and reducing costs or offering versions of its applications, which are stripped back for casual content creators if the economy continues to become less enterprise-driven and more about independent freelancing. A strategy such as tiered subscription models would likely work better in the creative economy I think we are moving toward, led in the West and eventually across the globe. Management may also be able to mitigate risks through partnerships with freelance platforms like Upwork (UPWK) and Fiverr (FVRR) and even seek out partnerships with leading AI companies to consolidate its moat in advanced offerings at accessible prices through popular platforms.</p><h2 id=\"id_1837284377\">Conclusion</h2><p>Adobe will be one of many companies facing heightened levels of instability during this time of technological change. In my opinion, there are many opportunities for management to capitalize on, but also many areas of vulnerability if its operational strategies are not thoroughly planned and executed well. In a realistic scenario where the company manages notable successes but also concedes market share to competitors in certain areas, the company is probably likely to generate a CAGR of around 11% over the next decade, in my opinion. While this estimate could be beaten by higher levels of adoption of Adobe&#39;s services, it is likely going to take a more agile approach to the business model and product development to achieve this—there has not been mounting evidence so far from the company that it is preparing enough to take this more proactive approach to combat growing market pressures.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe: Don't Expect It To Beat The Market Long-Term (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe: Don't Expect It To Beat The Market Long-Term (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-28 13:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701407-adobe-dont-expect-it-to-beat-the-market-long-term-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Adobe's strategic AI integration solidifies its dominance in professional creative software, potentially outperforming emerging competitors.While Adobe is poised for growth due to increasing demand ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701407-adobe-dont-expect-it-to-beat-the-market-long-term-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701407-adobe-dont-expect-it-to-beat-the-market-long-term-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2446592258","content_text":"Adobe's strategic AI integration solidifies its dominance in professional creative software, potentially outperforming emerging competitors.While Adobe is poised for growth due to increasing demand for digital content, it faces competition from emerging AI-powered tools and cost-effective alternatives, potentially impacting market share.Adobe's current valuation is favorable compared to historical levels, but future growth is expected to moderate. A projected 11% 10-year CAGR suggests a stable but low alpha investment opportunity.I last covered Adobe in January; I put out a Buy rating at the time, and since then, the stock has lost around 14% in price. In large part, I consider this to be because the stock was slightly overvalued at the time. After the recent reduction, I think the stock is more reasonably valued, but I am downgrading my rating to a Hold after more thorough research into the company, which assesses its long-term price CAGR over the next 10+ years as being unlikely to significantly outperform the market. The company has a portfolio of strong software offerings, and while it has developed arguably its most significant moat in creative applications, in my opinion, its CRM solutions are likely to continue to be accretive and scale. I consider Adobe strong because it is integrating AI into its offerings, and I think its flagship product, Photoshop, is likely to significantly outcompete generative AI competitors because of its advanced capabilities, including nuanced editing. Adobe's moat is in professional creative applications, and I don't expect this to change—in fact, it has the potential to continue scaling as the technology sector and trends in digitalization continue to expand. However, new vulnerabilities in the changing creator economy warrant caution from investors seeking high long-term price returns.AI-Augmented Professional Creative SevicesAdobe is currently heavily integrating AI across its Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud. AI tools like Adobe Firefly are enhancing the capabilities of applications like Photoshop, Illustrator, and Premiere Pro. Considering the company's core market has always been professional creatives—a broad market of designers, photographers, videographers, and marketers—the addition of AI arguably places Adobe in an even stronger position than before. I find it unlikely that competitors like OpenAI's Sora or other generative AI models will be able to compete significantly any time soon in the advanced creative domain. For the foreseeable future, Adobe is likely to retain its moat as the go-to application suite for creative professionals.The commercial release of Firefly and its integration into Adobe's products has already provided evidence that the company's operational future is bright. Features such as Generative Fill in Photoshop and AI-enhanced video editing tools in Premiere Pro will likely create a new era in the creative profession where old skills become less useful, and the strategy of content creation and the quality of imagination become paramount.The company's enterprise solutions should also not be underestimated, with offerings like GenStudio combining content ideation, creation, production, and activation with generative AI. This domain enhances its moat in professional creative services by placing it as a foundational player in the enterprise content supply chain.In my opinion, investors would be wise to notice the quality that Adobe is well known for and has retained through its many decades of operation. The company is well known for being reliable, sophisticated, innovative and advanced relative to the status quo in creative technology. As such, investors should ask themselves whether they believe the company's values are conducive to long-term and stable stock returns. In my opinion, management has evidenced the correct dose of agility and reinforcing commitment to its biggest technological moats.Growth Catalysts & Competitive ThreatsWith the growing demand for digital content, Adobe's creative tools and content management solutions are arguably well-positioned for expansion. By expanding its presence in the enterprise sector and through strategic partnerships, such as the integration of Adobe Experience Cloud with Microsoft 365, marketers are likely to be able to work more efficiently, driving customer acquisition and retention. In addition, the partnership focuses on uniting data, content, and processes, and the opportunity for further strategic partnerships remains strong for further future market accretion.There are also emerging technologies like augmented reality and virtual reality, which are likely to have heavy creative components, which open up new market opportunities for the company. Adobe Aero is a powerful tool that allows users to create interactive AR experiences, integrating seamlessly with Photoshop, Illustrator, Substance 3D and other Adobe applications. This can be used to create content from virtual exhibits in museums to interactive marketing campaigns. Adobe Substance 3D is a suite of tools designed for creating and texturing 3D models, supporting the creation of immersive VR environments used in fields like gaming, architecture, and entertainment. Management is already preparing for the metaverse by developing tools that can facilitate the creation of interactive 3D worlds. Brands like Coca-Cola (KO), Epic Games, and NASCAR are already collaborating with Adobe to build such experiences.As I mentioned previously, some analysts are arguing that generative AI from companies like OpenAI, Google (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) might be able to take market share from Adobe. Partly, this could be true at the lower ends of the market, but I see it unlikely for the bespoke and sophisticated creative markets. There are also high-quality open-source creative tools and free alternatives (like Canva for graphics) that might erode Adobe's market share. Again, this is likely to be eroded in the market for individual creators or small businesses. The question Adobe's shareholders would be wise to ask is whether we are moving toward an economy of individual creators as time progresses—an economic quality that might become evermore present as AI becomes more capable of automating corporate functions. According to Goldman Sachs, the creator economy is expected to roughly double from $250B in 2023 to $480B by 2027. Its report states that the number of global creators is projected to grow at a 10-20% CAGR over the next five years.Financial & Peer AnalysisIn my opinion, the top three publicly traded companies that pose a competitive threat to Adobe over the next 10 years are Microsoft, Salesforce (CRM) and Autodesk (ADSK).Microsoft competes in several key areas, including cloud services, productivity software, and design tools.Salesforce competes in the customer relationship management and marketing automation fields.Autodesk competes with Adobe in 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software markets.ADBEMSFTCRMADSKHistorical FWD Revenue Growth 5Y Avg15.59%12.99%19.53%16.21%Historical FWD Diluted EPS Growth 5Y Avg19.06%15.66%16.65%36.66%Historical FWD Free Cash Flow Growth 5Y Avg15.76%12.66%22.28%25.39%Equity-to-Asset Ratio0.50.520.620.22TTM Net Income Margin 5Y Avg30.28%34.50%7.32%15.67%FWD P/E GAAP Ratio43.7037.9039.5548.78Adobe has a notably high net margin compared to its peers, and its growth rates are highly competitive—better than Microsoft in top and bottom lines and free cash flow growth over the past five years. In my opinion, each of these companies is likely to benefit from margin expansion due to automation and AI, but in my opinion, ADBE, MSFT, and CRM are likely to experience more accretive results from their proprietary AI integrated into their systems bespoke, as opposed to ADSK, whose proprietary AI models such Project Bernini are tailored to specific niche use-cases rather than having broader enterprise applications. Adobe's Sensei, Microsoft's Azure AI and Dynamics 365 AI, and Salesforce's Einstein AI are well-integrated across their respective platforms.As I mentioned above, Adobe's integration of AI into its products has been the core driver of its recent success. In Q2 2024 earnings, the company's generative AI model was reported to have significant adoption, increasing the Creative Cloud subscriber rates. For the quarter, Adobe reported 11% YoY revenue growth, and it attributed its generative AI Firefly model family and the Acrobat AI Assistant as having played a crucial role in driving subscription rates and user retention due to efficiency benefits. In my opinion, the company is on to something crucial here as most of its customers use its products for professional use cases, and the efficiency gains provided by the company's AI services are likely to boost users' personal or enterprise cash flows.Over the next few years, Wall Street analysts are estimating that the firm's revenue growth is likely to ease to around 11% per annum. I think this is a reasonable expectation, but I also think the company is likely to maintain these still strong growth rates quite consistently over the next decade as its position in advanced AI creative services becomes more prominent. As a result, the current valuation looks quite appealing to me compared to historically, even if we are likely to see a moderate correction in valuation multiples.Value Analysis & Price TargetAdobe has rich valuation multiples, but as the following table shows, this is not unusual for companies in its field. As we can also see, ADBE stock is currently trading at a discount from its five-year average in both FWD P/E GAAP and P/S ratios. This is warranted because the company's future earnings estimates are likely to be somewhat lower moving forward, which is the consensus on Wall Street and also logical if we consider the market saturation and growing competitive threats, which include a potentially new creator economy that is evolving to be reliant on cheaper AI creative solutions, like DALL·E, ChatGPT, and cheaper graphic design platforms like Canva—all a significant threat to Photoshop.ADBEMSFTCRMADSKFWD P/E GAAP Ratio43.7037.9039.5548.78FWD P/E GAAP Ratio 5Y Avg45.5731.04NM94.09FWD P/S Ratio10.9413.586.148.51FWD P/S Ratio 5Y Avg13.0910.377.4711.05This comes at a time when Microsoft, arguably Adobe's largest competitor, has an expanding P/S and P/E ratio. Again, this is arguably warranted because the company has been expanding its net margin much more aggressively than Adobe over the past 10 years, whose net margin has actually contracted from its median over the time period by about 2 percentage points.In my opinion, it is not unreasonable to expect Adobe's P/E GAAP ratio to contract slightly more over the next decade as its fundamental growth begins to stabilize into more moderate annual rates. I believe a P/E GAAP ratio of around 35 is one reasonable prediction for the company in 2034. In addition, I am forecasting 12.5% annual EPS growth over the next decade, resulting in a 2034 price target of $1,272.95, as the current basic EPS is $11.20. The implied 10-year CAGR is 9%, as the current stock price is $526.88.However, there is also the possibility that its P/E ratio does not contract as much as this. In an alternative scenario where the company's P/E ratio contracts to only 40 over the period, the 2034 price target would be $1,454.80. The implied 10-year CAGR would then be 10.7%.I think 12.5% EPS growth over the next decade is reasonable to predict because while there might be gains in growth in creative markets as a result of administrative jobs becoming automated, as I mentioned in my operations analysis above, the economy of individual creators with smaller budgets is also likely to grow. If, as one would hope, they choose the sophisticated and slightly more expensive models offered by Adobe, the company may be able to achieve a 10-year 15% EPS CAGR, which would result in a price target of $1,902.77 if the company's P/E ratio is 42 in 2034. The implied CAGR in this instance would be 13.9%.In my opinion, the likely outcome here is a 2034 stock price of approximately $1,500 and a 10-year CAGR of approximately 11%. For this reason, primarily, my rating is a Hold despite the operational positives surrounding AI that the firm has set itself up to deliver.Risk Analysis & Closing SentimentsI consider Adobe to be an excellent company. Part of what I admire about it and why I believe it offers a good place in portfolios despite it being unlikely that it will outperform the market long-term is that it offers a slow and steady approach to wealth accumulation. In my opinion, Adobe is a good investment for those who are risk-averse. However, such investments don't provide exposure to the higher returns one might be looking for in the technology markets.Momentum and value investors might benefit from short-term results related to AI integrations and a cheap valuation compared to historically, but over a long-term horizon, investors should expect this to stabilize into more moderate annual growth unless certain catalysts like advances in the individual creator economy prove to be highly accretive to Adobe despite growing cost-effective competition.The future economy that could arise with the growing utilization of digital economies like YouTube and the metaverse could catalyze Adobe's growth, but it also opens up areas of vulnerability. As artificial intelligence capabilities scale, a period of rapid technological change is likely to ensue. This creates shifting business models and arguably a software market that becomes democratized. There are already multiple AI-led companies that are producing cheaper software solutions, like Photoshop, at a huge reduction in price but with high levels of technical capability.Adobe would likely benefit from adapting its strategy and reducing costs or offering versions of its applications, which are stripped back for casual content creators if the economy continues to become less enterprise-driven and more about independent freelancing. A strategy such as tiered subscription models would likely work better in the creative economy I think we are moving toward, led in the West and eventually across the globe. Management may also be able to mitigate risks through partnerships with freelance platforms like Upwork (UPWK) and Fiverr (FVRR) and even seek out partnerships with leading AI companies to consolidate its moat in advanced offerings at accessible prices through popular platforms.ConclusionAdobe will be one of many companies facing heightened levels of instability during this time of technological change. In my opinion, there are many opportunities for management to capitalize on, but also many areas of vulnerability if its operational strategies are not thoroughly planned and executed well. In a realistic scenario where the company manages notable successes but also concedes market share to competitors in certain areas, the company is probably likely to generate a CAGR of around 11% over the next decade, in my opinion. While this estimate could be beaten by higher levels of adoption of Adobe's services, it is likely going to take a more agile approach to the business model and product development to achieve this—there has not been mounting evidence so far from the company that it is preparing enough to take this more proactive approach to combat growing market pressures.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314157893669000,"gmtCreate":1717719143881,"gmtModify":1717724644652,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"And nobody cares about your fucking two cents&nbsp;","listText":"And nobody cares about your fucking two cents&nbsp;","text":"And nobody cares about your fucking two cents","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314157893669000","repostId":"2441755177","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2441755177","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1717686127,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2441755177?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-06 23:02","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: This Could Be The Top","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2441755177","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NVIDIA is continuing to grow with impressive rates, and analysts are surprised quarter after quarter and have to reset estimates for the quarters to come.Nevertheless, I see extremely optimistic senti","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVIDIA is continuing to grow with impressive rates, and analysts are surprised quarter after quarter and have to reset estimates for the quarters to come.</p></li><li><p>Nevertheless, I see extremely optimistic sentiment driving the stock to unreasonable high stock prices and sentiment is also driven by management.</p></li><li><p>The stock is overvalued and when looking at the chart it also hit a potential target and resistance level indicating a bigger correction.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>BING-JHEN HONG</p><p></p><p>My last article about NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was published in mid-March 2024 following fourth quarter results. And while I covered NVIDIA before and was always cautious regarding the stock (which was clearly wrong in 2022 as I did not see what was coming), I always rated the stock as a “Hold”. But in my last article I rated NVIDIA as a “Sell” for the first time.</p><p>In my case a “Sell” rating is rather the exception. It is not that I am not bearish about companies or the stock market – I am actually really bearish for the entire stock market in the coming years. But I mostly try to cover high-quality businesses that can qualify as great long-term investments. And as I usually consider it dangerous to short these businesses only 3 articles (out of 700) have a “Strong Sell” rating and only about 30 have a “Sell” rating (see here).</p><p>But despite the “Sell” rating in my last article, the stock increased 24% in the meantime and clearly outperformed the S&amp;P 500 which increased only 2% in the same timeframe. Let’s look at NVIDIA three months later and answer the question if I have been wrong and if we should change the rating.</p><h2 id=\"id_4085369199\">Quarterly Results</h2><p>On May 22, 2024, NVIDIA reported first quarter results and could beat analysts’ estimates for revenue as well as earnings per share once again. This is actually the sixth quarter in a row in which NVIDIA Corporation did beat earnings and revenue, but we can see that analysts are getting closer to actual reported earnings again (meaning the % surprise is getting lower again).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cb7302b6058b2e5240da6f0cc0414dad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\"/></p><p>NVIDIA EPS Surprise Last Few Quarters (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>But overall, the analysts had to increase expectations constantly in the last few quarters and NVIDIA still did beat estimates again and again.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f99d1682f458f8d392fe7fc31464046a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\"/></p><p>NVIDIA: Consensus EPS Revision Trend (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>And NVIDIA reported great results once again. Revenue increased from $7,192 million in Q1/24 to $26,044 million in Q1/25 – resulting in 262% year-over-year growth. Operating income increased even more – 690% year-over-year growth from $2,140 million in the same quarter last year to $16,909 million this quarter. And diluted net income per share increased from $0.82 in Q1/24 to $5.98 in Q1/25 – resulting in 629% year-over-year growth.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7ab1891fc5f96140fdc666c206cd8e9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p>NVIDIA Q1/25 Presentation</p><p></p><p>When looking at the different market platforms all five contributed to growth but it was especially “Data Center” being responsible for the overall top-line and bottom-line growth. Data Center revenue increased 427% year-over-year as well as 23% quarter-over-quarter. Data Center generated $22,563 million in revenue and is therefore responsible for 87% of total revenue. These increases are mostly due to higher shipments of the NVIDIA Hopper GPU computing platform with thousands of several different companies using these. During the last earnings call, management mentioned two different examples – Tesla as well as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>. Tesla’s infrastructure was expanded by 35,000 H100 GPUs for their training AI clusters and Meta’s Llama 3 (the largest large language model the company has) was trained on a cluster of 24,000 H100 GPUs.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83625f013314a9530128a2d15d12554c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p>NVIDIA Q1/25 Presentation</p><p></p><p>Data Center is now responsible for 87% of total revenue (at least in Q1/25) and this is also posing a huge risk. When one product (or product category) is suddenly responsible for growth and almost the entire revenue it poses a huge risk for the overall business as the company – in this case NVIDIA – is extremely dependent on this single business segment. And although we are talking about completely different industries, Novo Nordisk (NVO) is in a similar situation with GLP-1 and obesity drugs now being responsible for a huge part of overall revenue posing a huge risk if demand for these products should suddenly decline.</p><h2 id=\"id_3040866529\">Growth Continuing</h2><p>When listening to the earnings call, there only seems to one plausible conclusion for every investor: NVIDIA future is bright and high growth rates will continue and this is a great investment. During the last earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang stated:</p><blockquote><p>The next industrial revolution has begun. Companies and countries are partnering with NVIDIA to shift the trillion-dollar installed base of traditional data centers to accelerated computing and build a new type of data center, AI factories, to produce a new commodity, artificial intelligence.</p><p>AI will bring significant productivity gains to nearly every industry and help companies be more cost and energy efficient while expanding revenue opportunities.</p></blockquote><p>And I have no doubt that artificial intelligence is a game changer that will shift our world in several ways in the next 5, 10 or 20 years. The labor market will change as jobs will vanish, but new jobs will arise as well. Additionally, (most) companies must adopt to the new technology and those adopting well will certainly profit.</p><p>Despite most people (including myself) seem to have a clear opinion about AI being a revolution, the question if we are at the beginning of a technical revolution is still difficult to answer. But picking the right companies to invest in the early stage of such a technical revolution is even more difficult. Not only are many stocks severely overvalued (especially those stocks everybody believes to be the winners) but we also must pick the right companies. NVIDIA might continue to be one of the top companies – but we don’t know.</p><p>NVIDIA started shipping the H200, which nearly doubles the inference performance of its predecessor, the H100. The first H200 system was delivered to Sam Altman and the team of OpenAI and NVIDIA is on track with shipments for the second quarter. Right now, NVIDIA is the undisputable market leader for AI infrastructure, but that might change again and other competitors like Intel Corporation or AMD might catch up again and take market shares from NVIDIA. And it should be clear for everybody that the high growth rates of the last few quarters won’t persist. We are now comparing growth rates to much higher levels – making high double digit or triple digit growth rates much more difficult.</p><h2 id=\"id_1797022810\">Sentiment Driving The Stock</h2><p>When pointing out that competitors could take market shares from NVIDIA many might laugh about this statement and the pessimism of growth slowing down as in the current extremely bullish sentiment NVIDIA losing out to a competitor seems extremely unlikely.</p><p>And sentiment is always driving the stock market in the short term, but especially in times of huge depression or extreme bubbles this might be challenging for investors. In case of bubbles extreme sentiment is driving the stock (market) and in my opinion extreme sentiment is even more difficult to grasp. This is true for extreme optimism as well as extreme pessimism. When sentiment gets extreme, we often underestimate sentiment and rather expect a regression to the mean and investors getting more “reasonable” again. And this is often a huge misjudgment of sentiment, which is driving stock prices to extremes in both directions and the stock continuing to rise or decline at a point where many investors already see the stock price as extreme.</p><p>In my opinion, NVIDIA is also contributing to the bubble and the extreme bullish sentiment. During the last earnings call CEO Jensen Huang made several statements. And I certainly don’t oppose to this first statement:</p><blockquote><p>As generative AI makes its way into more consumer Internet applications, we expect to see continued growth opportunities as inference scales both with model complexity as well as with the number of users and number of queries per user, driving much more demand for AI compute.</p></blockquote><p>However, there are other more specific statements about investments paying off in a major way. And not only are these statements sounding extremely bullish, I would also question if these claims are reasonable:</p><blockquote><p>Training and inferencing AI on NVIDIA CUDA is driving meaningful acceleration in cloud rental revenue growth, delivering an immediate and strong return on cloud provider&#39;s investment. For every $1 spent on NVIDIA AI infrastructure, cloud providers have an opportunity to earn $5 in GPU instant hosting revenue over four years. NVIDIA&#39;s rich software stack and ecosystem and tight integration with cloud providers makes it easy for end customers up and running on NVIDIA GPU instances in the public cloud.</p></blockquote><p>Another similar claim made during the earnings call:</p><blockquote><p>For example, using Llama 3 with 700 billion parameters, a single NVIDIA HGX H200 server can deliver 24,000 tokens per second, supporting more than 2,400 users at the same time. That means for every $1 spent on NVIDIA HGX H200 servers at current prices per token, an API provider serving Llama 3 tokens can generate $7 in revenue over four years.</p></blockquote><p>And I am in no position to really evaluate if these statements are reasonable and what return on invested can actually be generated by using AI. However, these statements sound extremely bullish and a 400% to 600% return on investment is without any doubt an extremely bullish statement and I would argue that most companies won’t achieve this kind of RoI. It is also expectable for management being bullish about its own business and praising its own products. But such extremely bullish statements are contributing to already extremely bullish sentiment that drove the stock price 10x higher in about 1.5 years.</p><p>In the end, we are caught in a huge scale between “Unrealistic expectations and irrational exuberance” on the one side and “most people being unable to realize the revolution taking place and grasping its impact” Knowing beforehand where a technology revolution should be categorized on that broad range is extremely difficult and in most cases, we will be wrong. In most cases we will be either too pessimistic or too optimistic.</p><h2 id=\"id_1117665593\">Stock Split</h2><p>And one occasion where investors are often too optimistic (because there is no reason to be optimistic) is a stock split. Usually, following a stock split, the stock continues to gain in value and there are still investors not understanding that the fundamental value did not change and that a stock is not cheap now because one must pay only half, a third or a tenth of the original price.</p><p>NVIDIA also announced a 10:1 stock split, which makes sense as the stock is now trading for over $1,000 and these are rather untypical prices for listed equity. The nine additional shares every shareholder will receive for one share will be distributed after market close on Friday, June 7, 2024.</p><p>While there is no fundamental reason for the stock to rise due to a stock split, it is not unusual for stocks to continue rising after a stock split. A stock split is almost always occurring for stocks that were climbing in value with a high pace in the quarters leading up to the stock split. And in many cases these stocks are continuing to increase in value and are only continuing the predominant trend.</p><h2 id=\"id_203398731\">Dividend and Share Buybacks</h2><p>And as long as we are talking about announcements, we can also mention the dividend. NVIDIA is actually paying a dividend for quite some time – since 2012. But the dividend never played an important role and is usually not worth mentioning.</p><p>Now NVIDIA increased the quarterly dividend by 150% and in most other cases this would have been major news. But NVIDIA increased the quarterly dividend from $0.04 per share to $0.10 per share resulting in $0.40 in annual dividends for a stock trading for about $1,100 at the time of writing. This is resulting in a dividend yield of 0.04%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64a875e7ca67b4abe76318a026e6e46b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>And while NVIDIA spent only $400 million on dividend payments in the last four quarters (will now be about $1,000 million), the company is spending higher amounts on share buybacks. In fiscal 2023, NVIDIA purchased shares worth $11,514 million and in fiscal 2024 the company purchased shares worth $12,316 million.</p><p>And considering about $40 billion in free cash flow NVIDIA generated in the last four quarters, it is spending only a fraction on dividends and share buybacks. And I personally don’t think the company should spend huge amounts on share buybacks as the stock is extremely overvalued.</p><h2 id=\"id_1004710634\">Extremely Overvalued</h2><p>I already wrote this in my past articles. In my opinion NVIDIA is extremely overvalued – despite the growth rates NVIDIA could report in the last few quarters. When looking at the P/E ratio as well as P/FCF ratio we see the ratios improving again over the quarters (and the stock growing into its valuation). Right now, NVIDIA is trading for a P/E ratio of 64 as well as a P/FCF ratio of 70.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b32ef68b96022af4d4abbe4f48d6bb44\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>And although NVIDIA was certainly not a stock trading for low valuation multiples in the last few years, it is right now above the 10-year average P/E ratio (which was 56.58) and above the 10-year average P/FCF ratio (which was 55.69). When comparing NVIDIA’s P/E ratio to the P/E ratio of several peers from the semiconductor space, only AMD is trading for a much higher valuation multiples while most other companies are trading around a valuation multiple of 30.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d825b56466ab4d4ac6e7339fb6c77628\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Cleary, when growing the bottom line 100% annually (or more), a valuation multiple of 70 might seem justified. But investing is always about looking ahead and we often make the mistake to perpetuate current growth rates far into the future.</p><p>In my last article I wrote that NVIDIA must grow 22% annually for the next ten years followed by 6% growth till perpetuity for the stock to be fairly valued. We can update this calculation, but the necessary growth rates are more or less the same. Free cash flow of the last four quarters, which I take as basis ($39.33 billion) is higher now than in my last calculation. But the stock price is also higher now and therefore we still need about 22-23% annual growth for the next ten years followed by 6% growth till perpetuity to be fairly valued. This assumes 10% discount rate and 2,489 million diluted outstanding shares.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fecd625706146ae053cce4518c384b50\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>And I don’t want to repeat all the arguments made in my last article, so I mention just a few catch phrases and buzz words: NVIDIA has an extremely high market share when talking about AI and the necessary infrastructure and a huge part of revenue is ending up as free cash flow. In both cases we should not bet on this scenario to continue forever.</p><p>Considering that competitors will most likely catch up in the coming quarters (or at least next few years) and take market shares from NVIDIA, a valuation multiple of 70 seems not justified. And increased competition will not only lead to lower top-line growth rates, but also lower margins for NVIDIA in the coming years. Additionally, the semiconductor industry was always cyclical and subject to spending cycles. And even if we are at the beginning of a long-lasting AI revolution, spending could still slow down in the next few years as the major tech companies already bought the necessary AI infrastructure for the next few years, which is another argument for a valuation multiple of 70 being too high.</p><p>And in theory, NVIDIA could be fairly valued – but for that scenario everything has to line up perfectly over the next decades and that is a level of perfection I don’t believe in. And when looking at cycles, theories about hype and are taking the historical perspective, it seems extremely unlikely that NVIDIA is not in a bubble.</p><h2 id=\"id_2451837771\">Technical Picture</h2><p>In case of NVIDIA, I already made the case in my last article that the stock might climb a little higher before a bigger correction might begin. In the article I wrote:</p><blockquote><p>When using Fibonacci extension levels from the last bull run from 2018 to 2021, we got a potential target of around $863 (the 2.618 extension). However, Nvidia already exceeded this level (I started working on the article about two weeks ago). The next potential target would be the 3.618 Fibonacci extension around $1,180. At this level, we also have a white trendline which is combining the two highs of 2018 and 2021 and would generate a resistance level somewhere around $1,050 in the next few weeks/months for Nvidia.</p></blockquote><p>And now it seems like NVIDIA reached that target. In the last few days, the stock marked an intraday trading high of $1,220 and hit my target. Of course, we should not forget that we are always dealing with probabilities and this is just one scenario that seems very likely in my opinion. The stock could end up performing very different in the next few months and quarters.</p><h2 id=\"id_2684084331\">Risks</h2><p>I also see two major risks to my bearish thesis (risk being defined here as the stock climbing and missing out on profit due to selling the stock as I am not short and won’t advise anyone to short the stock):</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>NVIDIA might continue to climb higher as competitors like Intel Corporation (INTC) or Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) continue to rather disappoint and underperform, and NVIDIA will be able to keep its extremely high market share.</p></li><li><p>I might underestimate sentiment and the bullish sentiment gets even more extreme and is driving the stock price higher and higher (even if not justified by fundamentals). The recent roller-coaster ride of GameStop (GME) shares might be an example for unexpected extremes in sentiment.</p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_2367374080\">Conclusion</h2><p>In the end, I still see NVIDIA being one of the most overvalued stocks and the extremely bullish sentiment is driven by the hype surrounding AI in the last few quarters but also by extremely bullish statements from management. In the last few quarters, growth rates certainly supported the high valuation multiples NVIDIA is currently trading for, but it would not be the first company with growth rates suddenly falling off a cliff as companies suddenly head back on spending (for extremely due to a recession). And betting on perfect has always been dangerous.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: This Could Be The Top</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: This Could Be The Top\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-06 23:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697662-nvidia-stock-this-could-be-the-top><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVIDIA is continuing to grow with impressive rates, and analysts are surprised quarter after quarter and have to reset estimates for the quarters to come.Nevertheless, I see extremely optimistic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697662-nvidia-stock-this-could-be-the-top\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","INTC":"英特尔","NVO":"诺和诺德","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A (acc)","BK4588":"碎股","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","GME":"游戏驿站","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697662-nvidia-stock-this-could-be-the-top","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2441755177","content_text":"NVIDIA is continuing to grow with impressive rates, and analysts are surprised quarter after quarter and have to reset estimates for the quarters to come.Nevertheless, I see extremely optimistic sentiment driving the stock to unreasonable high stock prices and sentiment is also driven by management.The stock is overvalued and when looking at the chart it also hit a potential target and resistance level indicating a bigger correction.BING-JHEN HONGMy last article about NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was published in mid-March 2024 following fourth quarter results. And while I covered NVIDIA before and was always cautious regarding the stock (which was clearly wrong in 2022 as I did not see what was coming), I always rated the stock as a “Hold”. But in my last article I rated NVIDIA as a “Sell” for the first time.In my case a “Sell” rating is rather the exception. It is not that I am not bearish about companies or the stock market – I am actually really bearish for the entire stock market in the coming years. But I mostly try to cover high-quality businesses that can qualify as great long-term investments. And as I usually consider it dangerous to short these businesses only 3 articles (out of 700) have a “Strong Sell” rating and only about 30 have a “Sell” rating (see here).But despite the “Sell” rating in my last article, the stock increased 24% in the meantime and clearly outperformed the S&P 500 which increased only 2% in the same timeframe. Let’s look at NVIDIA three months later and answer the question if I have been wrong and if we should change the rating.Quarterly ResultsOn May 22, 2024, NVIDIA reported first quarter results and could beat analysts’ estimates for revenue as well as earnings per share once again. This is actually the sixth quarter in a row in which NVIDIA Corporation did beat earnings and revenue, but we can see that analysts are getting closer to actual reported earnings again (meaning the % surprise is getting lower again).NVIDIA EPS Surprise Last Few Quarters (Seeking Alpha)But overall, the analysts had to increase expectations constantly in the last few quarters and NVIDIA still did beat estimates again and again.NVIDIA: Consensus EPS Revision Trend (Seeking Alpha)And NVIDIA reported great results once again. Revenue increased from $7,192 million in Q1/24 to $26,044 million in Q1/25 – resulting in 262% year-over-year growth. Operating income increased even more – 690% year-over-year growth from $2,140 million in the same quarter last year to $16,909 million this quarter. And diluted net income per share increased from $0.82 in Q1/24 to $5.98 in Q1/25 – resulting in 629% year-over-year growth.NVIDIA Q1/25 PresentationWhen looking at the different market platforms all five contributed to growth but it was especially “Data Center” being responsible for the overall top-line and bottom-line growth. Data Center revenue increased 427% year-over-year as well as 23% quarter-over-quarter. Data Center generated $22,563 million in revenue and is therefore responsible for 87% of total revenue. These increases are mostly due to higher shipments of the NVIDIA Hopper GPU computing platform with thousands of several different companies using these. During the last earnings call, management mentioned two different examples – Tesla as well as Meta Platforms. Tesla’s infrastructure was expanded by 35,000 H100 GPUs for their training AI clusters and Meta’s Llama 3 (the largest large language model the company has) was trained on a cluster of 24,000 H100 GPUs.NVIDIA Q1/25 PresentationData Center is now responsible for 87% of total revenue (at least in Q1/25) and this is also posing a huge risk. When one product (or product category) is suddenly responsible for growth and almost the entire revenue it poses a huge risk for the overall business as the company – in this case NVIDIA – is extremely dependent on this single business segment. And although we are talking about completely different industries, Novo Nordisk (NVO) is in a similar situation with GLP-1 and obesity drugs now being responsible for a huge part of overall revenue posing a huge risk if demand for these products should suddenly decline.Growth ContinuingWhen listening to the earnings call, there only seems to one plausible conclusion for every investor: NVIDIA future is bright and high growth rates will continue and this is a great investment. During the last earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang stated:The next industrial revolution has begun. Companies and countries are partnering with NVIDIA to shift the trillion-dollar installed base of traditional data centers to accelerated computing and build a new type of data center, AI factories, to produce a new commodity, artificial intelligence.AI will bring significant productivity gains to nearly every industry and help companies be more cost and energy efficient while expanding revenue opportunities.And I have no doubt that artificial intelligence is a game changer that will shift our world in several ways in the next 5, 10 or 20 years. The labor market will change as jobs will vanish, but new jobs will arise as well. Additionally, (most) companies must adopt to the new technology and those adopting well will certainly profit.Despite most people (including myself) seem to have a clear opinion about AI being a revolution, the question if we are at the beginning of a technical revolution is still difficult to answer. But picking the right companies to invest in the early stage of such a technical revolution is even more difficult. Not only are many stocks severely overvalued (especially those stocks everybody believes to be the winners) but we also must pick the right companies. NVIDIA might continue to be one of the top companies – but we don’t know.NVIDIA started shipping the H200, which nearly doubles the inference performance of its predecessor, the H100. The first H200 system was delivered to Sam Altman and the team of OpenAI and NVIDIA is on track with shipments for the second quarter. Right now, NVIDIA is the undisputable market leader for AI infrastructure, but that might change again and other competitors like Intel Corporation or AMD might catch up again and take market shares from NVIDIA. And it should be clear for everybody that the high growth rates of the last few quarters won’t persist. We are now comparing growth rates to much higher levels – making high double digit or triple digit growth rates much more difficult.Sentiment Driving The StockWhen pointing out that competitors could take market shares from NVIDIA many might laugh about this statement and the pessimism of growth slowing down as in the current extremely bullish sentiment NVIDIA losing out to a competitor seems extremely unlikely.And sentiment is always driving the stock market in the short term, but especially in times of huge depression or extreme bubbles this might be challenging for investors. In case of bubbles extreme sentiment is driving the stock (market) and in my opinion extreme sentiment is even more difficult to grasp. This is true for extreme optimism as well as extreme pessimism. When sentiment gets extreme, we often underestimate sentiment and rather expect a regression to the mean and investors getting more “reasonable” again. And this is often a huge misjudgment of sentiment, which is driving stock prices to extremes in both directions and the stock continuing to rise or decline at a point where many investors already see the stock price as extreme.In my opinion, NVIDIA is also contributing to the bubble and the extreme bullish sentiment. During the last earnings call CEO Jensen Huang made several statements. And I certainly don’t oppose to this first statement:As generative AI makes its way into more consumer Internet applications, we expect to see continued growth opportunities as inference scales both with model complexity as well as with the number of users and number of queries per user, driving much more demand for AI compute.However, there are other more specific statements about investments paying off in a major way. And not only are these statements sounding extremely bullish, I would also question if these claims are reasonable:Training and inferencing AI on NVIDIA CUDA is driving meaningful acceleration in cloud rental revenue growth, delivering an immediate and strong return on cloud provider's investment. For every $1 spent on NVIDIA AI infrastructure, cloud providers have an opportunity to earn $5 in GPU instant hosting revenue over four years. NVIDIA's rich software stack and ecosystem and tight integration with cloud providers makes it easy for end customers up and running on NVIDIA GPU instances in the public cloud.Another similar claim made during the earnings call:For example, using Llama 3 with 700 billion parameters, a single NVIDIA HGX H200 server can deliver 24,000 tokens per second, supporting more than 2,400 users at the same time. That means for every $1 spent on NVIDIA HGX H200 servers at current prices per token, an API provider serving Llama 3 tokens can generate $7 in revenue over four years.And I am in no position to really evaluate if these statements are reasonable and what return on invested can actually be generated by using AI. However, these statements sound extremely bullish and a 400% to 600% return on investment is without any doubt an extremely bullish statement and I would argue that most companies won’t achieve this kind of RoI. It is also expectable for management being bullish about its own business and praising its own products. But such extremely bullish statements are contributing to already extremely bullish sentiment that drove the stock price 10x higher in about 1.5 years.In the end, we are caught in a huge scale between “Unrealistic expectations and irrational exuberance” on the one side and “most people being unable to realize the revolution taking place and grasping its impact” Knowing beforehand where a technology revolution should be categorized on that broad range is extremely difficult and in most cases, we will be wrong. In most cases we will be either too pessimistic or too optimistic.Stock SplitAnd one occasion where investors are often too optimistic (because there is no reason to be optimistic) is a stock split. Usually, following a stock split, the stock continues to gain in value and there are still investors not understanding that the fundamental value did not change and that a stock is not cheap now because one must pay only half, a third or a tenth of the original price.NVIDIA also announced a 10:1 stock split, which makes sense as the stock is now trading for over $1,000 and these are rather untypical prices for listed equity. The nine additional shares every shareholder will receive for one share will be distributed after market close on Friday, June 7, 2024.While there is no fundamental reason for the stock to rise due to a stock split, it is not unusual for stocks to continue rising after a stock split. A stock split is almost always occurring for stocks that were climbing in value with a high pace in the quarters leading up to the stock split. And in many cases these stocks are continuing to increase in value and are only continuing the predominant trend.Dividend and Share BuybacksAnd as long as we are talking about announcements, we can also mention the dividend. NVIDIA is actually paying a dividend for quite some time – since 2012. But the dividend never played an important role and is usually not worth mentioning.Now NVIDIA increased the quarterly dividend by 150% and in most other cases this would have been major news. But NVIDIA increased the quarterly dividend from $0.04 per share to $0.10 per share resulting in $0.40 in annual dividends for a stock trading for about $1,100 at the time of writing. This is resulting in a dividend yield of 0.04%.Data by YChartsAnd while NVIDIA spent only $400 million on dividend payments in the last four quarters (will now be about $1,000 million), the company is spending higher amounts on share buybacks. In fiscal 2023, NVIDIA purchased shares worth $11,514 million and in fiscal 2024 the company purchased shares worth $12,316 million.And considering about $40 billion in free cash flow NVIDIA generated in the last four quarters, it is spending only a fraction on dividends and share buybacks. And I personally don’t think the company should spend huge amounts on share buybacks as the stock is extremely overvalued.Extremely OvervaluedI already wrote this in my past articles. In my opinion NVIDIA is extremely overvalued – despite the growth rates NVIDIA could report in the last few quarters. When looking at the P/E ratio as well as P/FCF ratio we see the ratios improving again over the quarters (and the stock growing into its valuation). Right now, NVIDIA is trading for a P/E ratio of 64 as well as a P/FCF ratio of 70.Data by YChartsAnd although NVIDIA was certainly not a stock trading for low valuation multiples in the last few years, it is right now above the 10-year average P/E ratio (which was 56.58) and above the 10-year average P/FCF ratio (which was 55.69). When comparing NVIDIA’s P/E ratio to the P/E ratio of several peers from the semiconductor space, only AMD is trading for a much higher valuation multiples while most other companies are trading around a valuation multiple of 30.Data by YChartsCleary, when growing the bottom line 100% annually (or more), a valuation multiple of 70 might seem justified. But investing is always about looking ahead and we often make the mistake to perpetuate current growth rates far into the future.In my last article I wrote that NVIDIA must grow 22% annually for the next ten years followed by 6% growth till perpetuity for the stock to be fairly valued. We can update this calculation, but the necessary growth rates are more or less the same. Free cash flow of the last four quarters, which I take as basis ($39.33 billion) is higher now than in my last calculation. But the stock price is also higher now and therefore we still need about 22-23% annual growth for the next ten years followed by 6% growth till perpetuity to be fairly valued. This assumes 10% discount rate and 2,489 million diluted outstanding shares.Data by YChartsAnd I don’t want to repeat all the arguments made in my last article, so I mention just a few catch phrases and buzz words: NVIDIA has an extremely high market share when talking about AI and the necessary infrastructure and a huge part of revenue is ending up as free cash flow. In both cases we should not bet on this scenario to continue forever.Considering that competitors will most likely catch up in the coming quarters (or at least next few years) and take market shares from NVIDIA, a valuation multiple of 70 seems not justified. And increased competition will not only lead to lower top-line growth rates, but also lower margins for NVIDIA in the coming years. Additionally, the semiconductor industry was always cyclical and subject to spending cycles. And even if we are at the beginning of a long-lasting AI revolution, spending could still slow down in the next few years as the major tech companies already bought the necessary AI infrastructure for the next few years, which is another argument for a valuation multiple of 70 being too high.And in theory, NVIDIA could be fairly valued – but for that scenario everything has to line up perfectly over the next decades and that is a level of perfection I don’t believe in. And when looking at cycles, theories about hype and are taking the historical perspective, it seems extremely unlikely that NVIDIA is not in a bubble.Technical PictureIn case of NVIDIA, I already made the case in my last article that the stock might climb a little higher before a bigger correction might begin. In the article I wrote:When using Fibonacci extension levels from the last bull run from 2018 to 2021, we got a potential target of around $863 (the 2.618 extension). However, Nvidia already exceeded this level (I started working on the article about two weeks ago). The next potential target would be the 3.618 Fibonacci extension around $1,180. At this level, we also have a white trendline which is combining the two highs of 2018 and 2021 and would generate a resistance level somewhere around $1,050 in the next few weeks/months for Nvidia.And now it seems like NVIDIA reached that target. In the last few days, the stock marked an intraday trading high of $1,220 and hit my target. Of course, we should not forget that we are always dealing with probabilities and this is just one scenario that seems very likely in my opinion. The stock could end up performing very different in the next few months and quarters.RisksI also see two major risks to my bearish thesis (risk being defined here as the stock climbing and missing out on profit due to selling the stock as I am not short and won’t advise anyone to short the stock):NVIDIA might continue to climb higher as competitors like Intel Corporation (INTC) or Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) continue to rather disappoint and underperform, and NVIDIA will be able to keep its extremely high market share.I might underestimate sentiment and the bullish sentiment gets even more extreme and is driving the stock price higher and higher (even if not justified by fundamentals). The recent roller-coaster ride of GameStop (GME) shares might be an example for unexpected extremes in sentiment.ConclusionIn the end, I still see NVIDIA being one of the most overvalued stocks and the extremely bullish sentiment is driven by the hype surrounding AI in the last few quarters but also by extremely bullish statements from management. In the last few quarters, growth rates certainly supported the high valuation multiples NVIDIA is currently trading for, but it would not be the first company with growth rates suddenly falling off a cliff as companies suddenly head back on spending (for extremely due to a recession). And betting on perfect has always been dangerous.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311860055621648,"gmtCreate":1717163441706,"gmtModify":1717163445253,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Target price? 3600","listText":"Target price? 3600","text":"Target price? 3600","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311860055621648","repostId":"2439661130","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2439661130","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1717160400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2439661130?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-05-31 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Should You Buy Nvidia Before the June 7 Stock Split?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2439661130","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Each Nvidia share soon will be worth a lot less, due to the stock split.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia shares have soared past $1,000 as the company continues to deliver triple-digit earnings gains.</p></li><li><p>Such a high share price has made it difficult for some investors to get in on the stock.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Nvidia</strong> dominates the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market, and this has helped earnings to climb in the triple digits in recent years. AI may be the hottest investment theme right now, and this could continue. After all, analysts say the AI market could be worth more than $1 trillion by the end of the decade. So it&#39;s no surprise that Nvidia shares have skyrocketed, advancing 600% over the past three years.</p><p>This momentum helped push Nvidia shares to nearly $1,000 in recent times. And they actually surpassed that level after the company announced another blowout quarter, along with a move many investors had been hoping for: a stock split.</p><p>This will significantly lower the price of each Nvidia share. The big question is: Should you buy Nvidia stock before the June 7 stock split or wait until you can get shares at the lower price?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b64ebe7391d2e8f33f89bf033f6e181\" alt=\"Image source: Getty Images.\" title=\"Image source: Getty Images.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2755295700\">Lowering the price of each share</h2><p>First, let&#39;s talk about stock splits, in general. They don&#39;t change the market value of a company or the value of your holding if you already own the shares. Instead, a stock split will lower the price of each share by offering more shares to current holders. The ratio of the split determines the number of shares each investor will receive.</p><p>In the case of Nvidia, it&#39;s a 10-for-1 stock split, so for every one share you hold, you&#39;ll get an extra nine. At today&#39;s price of about $1,139, each individual share will now sell for $113. You&#39;ll have to be a shareholder of record as of June 6 to benefit, and the extra shares will be distributed after the market close on June 7.</p><p>Should you get in on Nvidia before or after this much-awaited stock split? The short answer is it doesn&#39;t matter, and here&#39;s why. As mentioned earlier, a stock split doesn&#39;t change the value of the company or the value of an investor&#39;s holding. If you buy one share today or 10 shares after the split, you&#39;ll be investing the same amount of cash.</p><p>Also, stock splits themselves aren&#39;t catalysts for share performance since they&#39;re just mechanical movements -- so Nvidia shares aren&#39;t likely to soar the day after the split just because a split occurred. Any potential gains, which could come either now or post-split, probably would be linked to the company&#39;s recent earnings performance or future growth prospects.</p><h2 id=\"id_585771334\">Opening the door to a broader range of investors</h2><p>The split is positive for Nvidia because it offers a broader range of investors access to the stock, and the company even stated that as its reason for launching the operation. Yes, fractional shares exist, but certain brokerages don&#39;t offer them, and some investors prefer buying full shares. That doesn&#39;t mean a huge wave of new investors will buy Nvidia shares post-split, but over time, a lower per-share price could attract more investment.</p><p>Now let&#39;s get back to you. If you want to bet on a current and future leader in the AI space, Nvidia makes an excellent buy (now or post-split). The company&#39;s graphics processing units (GPUs) are powering the key AI tasks of training and inferencing -- and more. And demand for Nvidia&#39;s chips and systems is so high, the company says it&#39;s &#34;racing&#34; to keep up.</p><p>Meanwhile, Nvidia is set to release its Blackwell architecture and most powerful chip ever later this year. And the company pledges to update its top-performing chips annually. This will make it very difficult for rivals to unseat this market giant.</p><p>Though we all tend to look at a stock price and immediately think &#34;that&#39;s cheap&#34; or &#34;that&#39;s expensive,&#34; it&#39;s important to instead look at valuation, or what the stock really is worth. Today, Nvidia trades at 42x forward earnings estimates, which looks reasonable, considering the company&#39;s market position and growth prospects.</p><p>Nvidia makes a great buy and could offer you explosive growth over time -- whether you buy the stock before or after the upcoming stock split.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should You Buy Nvidia Before the June 7 Stock Split?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould You Buy Nvidia Before the June 7 Stock Split?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-31 21:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/30/should-you-buy-nvidia-before-june-7-stock-split/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia shares have soared past $1,000 as the company continues to deliver triple-digit earnings gains.Such a high share price has made it difficult for some investors to get in on the stock.Nvidia ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/30/should-you-buy-nvidia-before-june-7-stock-split/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4543":"AI","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/30/should-you-buy-nvidia-before-june-7-stock-split/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2439661130","content_text":"Nvidia shares have soared past $1,000 as the company continues to deliver triple-digit earnings gains.Such a high share price has made it difficult for some investors to get in on the stock.Nvidia dominates the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market, and this has helped earnings to climb in the triple digits in recent years. AI may be the hottest investment theme right now, and this could continue. After all, analysts say the AI market could be worth more than $1 trillion by the end of the decade. So it's no surprise that Nvidia shares have skyrocketed, advancing 600% over the past three years.This momentum helped push Nvidia shares to nearly $1,000 in recent times. And they actually surpassed that level after the company announced another blowout quarter, along with a move many investors had been hoping for: a stock split.This will significantly lower the price of each Nvidia share. The big question is: Should you buy Nvidia stock before the June 7 stock split or wait until you can get shares at the lower price?Image source: Getty Images.Lowering the price of each shareFirst, let's talk about stock splits, in general. They don't change the market value of a company or the value of your holding if you already own the shares. Instead, a stock split will lower the price of each share by offering more shares to current holders. The ratio of the split determines the number of shares each investor will receive.In the case of Nvidia, it's a 10-for-1 stock split, so for every one share you hold, you'll get an extra nine. At today's price of about $1,139, each individual share will now sell for $113. You'll have to be a shareholder of record as of June 6 to benefit, and the extra shares will be distributed after the market close on June 7.Should you get in on Nvidia before or after this much-awaited stock split? The short answer is it doesn't matter, and here's why. As mentioned earlier, a stock split doesn't change the value of the company or the value of an investor's holding. If you buy one share today or 10 shares after the split, you'll be investing the same amount of cash.Also, stock splits themselves aren't catalysts for share performance since they're just mechanical movements -- so Nvidia shares aren't likely to soar the day after the split just because a split occurred. Any potential gains, which could come either now or post-split, probably would be linked to the company's recent earnings performance or future growth prospects.Opening the door to a broader range of investorsThe split is positive for Nvidia because it offers a broader range of investors access to the stock, and the company even stated that as its reason for launching the operation. Yes, fractional shares exist, but certain brokerages don't offer them, and some investors prefer buying full shares. That doesn't mean a huge wave of new investors will buy Nvidia shares post-split, but over time, a lower per-share price could attract more investment.Now let's get back to you. If you want to bet on a current and future leader in the AI space, Nvidia makes an excellent buy (now or post-split). The company's graphics processing units (GPUs) are powering the key AI tasks of training and inferencing -- and more. And demand for Nvidia's chips and systems is so high, the company says it's \"racing\" to keep up.Meanwhile, Nvidia is set to release its Blackwell architecture and most powerful chip ever later this year. And the company pledges to update its top-performing chips annually. This will make it very difficult for rivals to unseat this market giant.Though we all tend to look at a stock price and immediately think \"that's cheap\" or \"that's expensive,\" it's important to instead look at valuation, or what the stock really is worth. Today, Nvidia trades at 42x forward earnings estimates, which looks reasonable, considering the company's market position and growth prospects.Nvidia makes a great buy and could offer you explosive growth over time -- whether you buy the stock before or after the upcoming stock split.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":298699889598504,"gmtCreate":1713956617878,"gmtModify":1713956621969,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> is the only stock that can make you a millionaire in 5-year time horizon!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> is the only stock that can make you a millionaire in 5-year time horizon!&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is the only stock that can make you a millionaire in 5-year time horizon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/298699889598504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":289178575274176,"gmtCreate":1711634763884,"gmtModify":1711634768891,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yahooooooo... Boss Tiger Bronze","listText":"Yahooooooo... Boss Tiger Bronze","text":"Yahooooooo... Boss Tiger Bronze","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73bdaeb6691f4623ab64c716a29276f9","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/289178575274176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":256573734080696,"gmtCreate":1703669749928,"gmtModify":1703669756043,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256573734080696","repostId":"256295028457480","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":256295028457480,"gmtCreate":1703579947061,"gmtModify":1703656881051,"author":{"id":"9000000000000419","authorId":"9000000000000419","name":"WallStreet_Tiger","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1fdbba25bcf5dea3f281241ba1320d10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000419","idStr":"9000000000000419"},"themes":[],"title":"2023 Recap: Top 10 Most Popular US Stocks in Tiger Community!","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>——ChatGPT, Copilot, BlizzardThe emergence of ChatGPT has changed the landscape of the internet and also altered the way people live and work. One of the biggest winners is Microsoft, one of the major shareholders of OpenAI. In addition to increasing the usage of its own browser and enhancing the competitiveness of its cloud services, embedding ChatGPT directly into its Office and other products has directly boosted the company's revenue. Furthermore, the $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard this year has further strengthened Microsoft's position in the gaming industry.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>——+238%, H200, China-BanThe rise of AI has led to a sudden surge in research and development","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>——ChatGPT, Copilot, BlizzardThe emergence of ChatGPT has changed the landscape of the internet and also altered the way people live and work. One of the biggest winners is Microsoft, one of the major shareholders of OpenAI. In addition to increasing the usage of its own browser and enhancing the competitiveness of its cloud services, embedding ChatGPT directly into its Office and other products has directly boosted the company's revenue. Furthermore, the $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard this year has further strengthened Microsoft's position in the gaming industry.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>——+238%, H200, China-BanThe rise of AI has led to a sudden surge in research and development","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$——ChatGPT, Copilot, BlizzardThe emergence of ChatGPT has changed the landscape of the internet and also altered the way people live and work. One of the biggest winners is Microsoft, one of the major shareholders of OpenAI. In addition to increasing the usage of its own browser and enhancing the competitiveness of its cloud services, embedding ChatGPT directly into its Office and other products has directly boosted the company's revenue. Furthermore, the $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard this year has further strengthened Microsoft's position in the gaming industry.$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$——+238%, H200, China-BanThe rise of AI has led to a sudden surge in research and development","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62c15b56987a01207df2dde7d2e58b2c","width":"1700","height":"2680"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256295028457480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":224812944052224,"gmtCreate":1695895034717,"gmtModify":1695895040037,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ride along&nbsp;","listText":"Ride along&nbsp;","text":"Ride along","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4949c30f786d7f9b9916395cf15ee76","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/224812944052224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187120491192496,"gmtCreate":1686723197678,"gmtModify":1686723201730,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yield +1000% pleaseeeee... need to quit my day job&nbsp;","listText":"Yield +1000% pleaseeeee... need to quit my day job&nbsp;","text":"Yield +1000% pleaseeeee... need to quit my day job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187120491192496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186747319156768,"gmtCreate":1686631882591,"gmtModify":1686631886180,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186747319156768","repostId":"186691110318128","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":186691110318128,"gmtCreate":1686587203563,"gmtModify":1686587217073,"author":{"id":"4102740637684170","authorId":"4102740637684170","name":"OptionsDelta","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab2017d32f95a165639de659b21cd1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102740637684170","idStr":"4102740637684170"},"themes":[],"title":"Unbelievably, the bull market will continue into next year","htmlText":"If you think Microsoft is too expensive, consider Apple.Last week, I mentioned that Apple's new product vision pro released next year will bring a disruptive upgrade experience, which will definitely be reflected in Apple's options order, and institutions will be strongly bullish.I don't know, I didn't expect it to be so strong that institutions actually sold ATM puts:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AAPL%2020231117%20180.0%20PUT\">$AAPL 20231117 180.0 PUT$</a>Option volume 2500, sellers margin of about 13.5 million. The option expiration date is November 17, and the institution believes that Apple's stock price will stabilize above 180 on November 17, or above 180 on that day.sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AAPL%2020240119%20215.0%20CALL\">$AAP</a>","listText":"If you think Microsoft is too expensive, consider Apple.Last week, I mentioned that Apple's new product vision pro released next year will bring a disruptive upgrade experience, which will definitely be reflected in Apple's options order, and institutions will be strongly bullish.I don't know, I didn't expect it to be so strong that institutions actually sold ATM puts:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AAPL%2020231117%20180.0%20PUT\">$AAPL 20231117 180.0 PUT$</a>Option volume 2500, sellers margin of about 13.5 million. The option expiration date is November 17, and the institution believes that Apple's stock price will stabilize above 180 on November 17, or above 180 on that day.sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AAPL%2020240119%20215.0%20CALL\">$AAP</a>","text":"If you think Microsoft is too expensive, consider Apple.Last week, I mentioned that Apple's new product vision pro released next year will bring a disruptive upgrade experience, which will definitely be reflected in Apple's options order, and institutions will be strongly bullish.I don't know, I didn't expect it to be so strong that institutions actually sold ATM puts:sell $AAPL 20231117 180.0 PUT$Option volume 2500, sellers margin of about 13.5 million. The option expiration date is November 17, and the institution believes that Apple's stock price will stabilize above 180 on November 17, or above 180 on that day.sell $AAP","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8826e02565b650ff5f7bc24ef470cb2","width":"2422","height":"316"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/391d3cf8e66dc7ac6180395ab985f0c3","width":"2408","height":"620"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89511e1c0705590bde936fb8b3b4be7d","width":"2410","height":"266"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186691110318128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186747241697384,"gmtCreate":1686631868112,"gmtModify":1686631871655,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186747241697384","repostId":"186047476355080","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":186047476355080,"gmtCreate":1686461020965,"gmtModify":1708031124672,"author":{"id":"4102123614530830","authorId":"4102123614530830","name":"nerdbull1669","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ac2db9ff7976dac4aa567ce14027bd6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102123614530830","idStr":"4102123614530830"},"themes":[],"title":"My Trading Strategy For Week of 12-16 June 2023","htmlText":"We will be having the FOMC meeting for the month of June from 13-14 June 2023. So my trading strategy for the week of 12-16 June 2023 shall cover before and after the FOMC Meeting. The main questions on investors’ mind would be “will there be a rate hike pause?”, how is the possibility of rate hike vs pause? This is how my previous week result far : <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/183979767034008\" target=\"_blank\">My Trading Strategy For Week of 05-09 June 2023</a> We have BABA which has a 1.80% gain, SOFI which has a 14% gain, but we have a loss of 0.91% if we went into AAPL last week I shall share this week stocks that I will be focusing. I would be looking at these 2 stocks, which are in these 2 sectors: Chinese ADRs - XPeng Inc. (XPEV) Fintech - SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI) Chinese","listText":"We will be having the FOMC meeting for the month of June from 13-14 June 2023. So my trading strategy for the week of 12-16 June 2023 shall cover before and after the FOMC Meeting. The main questions on investors’ mind would be “will there be a rate hike pause?”, how is the possibility of rate hike vs pause? This is how my previous week result far : <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/183979767034008\" target=\"_blank\">My Trading Strategy For Week of 05-09 June 2023</a> We have BABA which has a 1.80% gain, SOFI which has a 14% gain, but we have a loss of 0.91% if we went into AAPL last week I shall share this week stocks that I will be focusing. I would be looking at these 2 stocks, which are in these 2 sectors: Chinese ADRs - XPeng Inc. (XPEV) Fintech - SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI) Chinese","text":"We will be having the FOMC meeting for the month of June from 13-14 June 2023. So my trading strategy for the week of 12-16 June 2023 shall cover before and after the FOMC Meeting. The main questions on investors’ mind would be “will there be a rate hike pause?”, how is the possibility of rate hike vs pause? This is how my previous week result far : My Trading Strategy For Week of 05-09 June 2023 We have BABA which has a 1.80% gain, SOFI which has a 14% gain, but we have a loss of 0.91% if we went into AAPL last week I shall share this week stocks that I will be focusing. I would be looking at these 2 stocks, which are in these 2 sectors: Chinese ADRs - XPeng Inc. (XPEV) Fintech - SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI) Chinese","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bddb035f3585e5d709021c167c2a3597","width":"592","height":"341"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5a9f0756299e6284c895d7192039ce7e","width":"1386","height":"409"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bccb1940db1e01649f97b64d15ff9964","width":"1309","height":"666"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186047476355080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185343471984672,"gmtCreate":1686289146465,"gmtModify":1686289149873,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185343471984672","repostId":"184884784955440","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":184884784955440,"gmtCreate":1686146206160,"gmtModify":1686146221929,"author":{"id":"3527667620927015","authorId":"3527667620927015","name":"Tiger_Earnings","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849fb1fb43d93db3974fd09c5f65ff1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667620927015","idStr":"3527667620927015"},"themes":[],"title":"New High Stocks: Big Tech vs. Semiconductors! Who Will be the Next?","htmlText":"After <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> hit all-time-high, semiconductors and big techs represented by the two stocks also hit a new high. They are <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVEC\">$NVE Corp(NVEC)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVMI\">$Nova Measuring Instruments(NVMI)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDFS\">$PDF Solutions(PDFS)$</a> .Big Tech Show Strength in 2023Yesterday, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a> climbed 3.1% after JPMorgan increased its price target on","listText":"After <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> hit all-time-high, semiconductors and big techs represented by the two stocks also hit a new high. They are <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVEC\">$NVE Corp(NVEC)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVMI\">$Nova Measuring Instruments(NVMI)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDFS\">$PDF Solutions(PDFS)$</a> .Big Tech Show Strength in 2023Yesterday, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a> climbed 3.1% after JPMorgan increased its price target on","text":"After $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and $Apple(AAPL)$ hit all-time-high, semiconductors and big techs represented by the two stocks also hit a new high. They are $Netflix(NFLX)$, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $NVE Corp(NVEC)$ , $Nova Measuring Instruments(NVMI)$ , $PDF Solutions(PDFS)$ .Big Tech Show Strength in 2023Yesterday, $Netflix(NFLX)$ climbed 3.1% after JPMorgan increased its price target on","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5e360a1a4ed6b57698104587df59d665","width":"1080","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf6273f7819ea85b712d030d6671fa27","width":"560","height":"240"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9330ffddb7f84242e2aa3d9daca2a2a","width":"1563","height":"836"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184884784955440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939903403,"gmtCreate":1662036710905,"gmtModify":1676536672304,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6994cd307731447142cd0e4476358d03","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939903403","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990341033,"gmtCreate":1660296702925,"gmtModify":1676533446344,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woohoo","listText":"Woohoo","text":"Woohoo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8733a93c14e38e35835d091268231288","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990341033","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042278940,"gmtCreate":1656489860580,"gmtModify":1676535839525,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haters gonna hate... Nio all the way&nbsp;","listText":"Haters gonna hate... Nio all the way&nbsp;","text":"Haters gonna hate... Nio all the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042278940","repostId":"1163422349","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163422349","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656489641,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163422349?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nio Shares Slipped 6% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163422349","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nio shares slipped 6% in premarket trading.Short-seller Grizzly Research on Wednesday published a be","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nio shares slipped 6% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ad9cf137cde94182f3c6b415d3f4ae\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"820\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Short-seller Grizzly Research on Wednesday published a bearish report on Nio, alleging the EV maker was inflating its revenue and profitability. Nio told CnEVPost that the report was full of inaccuracies and misinterpretations.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio Shares Slipped 6% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNio Shares Slipped 6% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-29 16:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nio shares slipped 6% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ad9cf137cde94182f3c6b415d3f4ae\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"820\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Short-seller Grizzly Research on Wednesday published a bearish report on Nio, alleging the EV maker was inflating its revenue and profitability. Nio told CnEVPost that the report was full of inaccuracies and misinterpretations.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163422349","content_text":"Nio shares slipped 6% in premarket trading.Short-seller Grizzly Research on Wednesday published a bearish report on Nio, alleging the EV maker was inflating its revenue and profitability. Nio told CnEVPost that the report was full of inaccuracies and misinterpretations.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025341589,"gmtCreate":1653627045042,"gmtModify":1676535317528,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115630127114652","idStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PANW\">$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$</a>Good buy&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PANW\">$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$</a>Good buy&nbsp;","text":"$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$Good buy","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b03bd3935ce42e8aa11bcee56da030d7","width":"1125","height":"3660"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025341589","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9042278940,"gmtCreate":1656489860580,"gmtModify":1676535839525,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haters gonna hate... Nio all the way&nbsp;","listText":"Haters gonna hate... Nio all the way&nbsp;","text":"Haters gonna hate... Nio all the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042278940","repostId":"1163422349","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":289178575274176,"gmtCreate":1711634763884,"gmtModify":1711634768891,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yahooooooo... Boss Tiger Bronze","listText":"Yahooooooo... Boss Tiger Bronze","text":"Yahooooooo... Boss Tiger Bronze","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73bdaeb6691f4623ab64c716a29276f9","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/289178575274176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311860055621648,"gmtCreate":1717163441706,"gmtModify":1717163445253,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Target price? 3600","listText":"Target price? 3600","text":"Target price? 3600","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311860055621648","repostId":"2439661130","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":298699889598504,"gmtCreate":1713956617878,"gmtModify":1713956621969,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> is the only stock that can make you a millionaire in 5-year time horizon!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> is the only stock that can make you a millionaire in 5-year time horizon!&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is the only stock that can make you a millionaire in 5-year time horizon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/298699889598504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321683105869928,"gmtCreate":1719566275420,"gmtModify":1719566279691,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"And your opinion is not important lol","listText":"And your opinion is not important lol","text":"And your opinion is not important lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321683105869928","repostId":"2446592258","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2446592258","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1719552328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2446592258?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-28 13:25","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Adobe: Don't Expect It To Beat The Market Long-Term (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2446592258","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Adobe's strategic AI integration solidifies its dominance in professional creative software, potentially outperforming emerging competitors.While Adobe is poised for growth due to increasing demand fo","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>&#39;s strategic AI integration solidifies its dominance in professional creative software, potentially outperforming emerging competitors.</p></li><li><p>While Adobe is poised for growth due to increasing demand for digital content, it faces competition from emerging AI-powered tools and cost-effective alternatives, potentially impacting market share.</p></li><li><p>Adobe&#39;s current valuation is favorable compared to historical levels, but future growth is expected to moderate. A projected 11% 10-year CAGR suggests a stable but low alpha investment opportunity.</p></li></ul><p>I last covered Adobe in January; I put out a Buy rating at the time, and since then, the stock has lost around 14% in price. In large part, I consider this to be because the stock was slightly overvalued at the time. After the recent reduction, I think the stock is more reasonably valued, but I am downgrading my rating to a Hold after more thorough research into the company, which assesses its long-term price CAGR over the next 10+ years as being unlikely to significantly outperform the market. The company has a portfolio of strong software offerings, and while it has developed arguably its most significant moat in creative applications, in my opinion, its CRM solutions are likely to continue to be accretive and scale. I consider Adobe strong because it is integrating AI into its offerings, and I think its flagship product, Photoshop, is likely to significantly outcompete generative AI competitors because of its advanced capabilities, including nuanced editing. Adobe&#39;s moat is in professional creative applications, and I don&#39;t expect this to change—in fact, it has the potential to continue scaling as the technology sector and trends in digitalization continue to expand. However, new vulnerabilities in the changing creator economy warrant caution from investors seeking high long-term price returns.</p><h2 id=\"id_3785247844\">AI-Augmented Professional Creative Sevices</h2><p>Adobe is currently heavily integrating AI across its Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud. AI tools like Adobe Firefly are enhancing the capabilities of applications like Photoshop, Illustrator, and Premiere Pro. Considering the company&#39;s core market has always been professional creatives—a broad market of designers, photographers, videographers, and marketers—the addition of AI arguably places Adobe in an even stronger position than before. I find it unlikely that competitors like OpenAI&#39;s Sora or other generative AI models will be able to compete significantly any time soon in the advanced creative domain. For the foreseeable future, Adobe is likely to retain its moat as the go-to application suite for creative professionals.</p><p>The commercial release of Firefly and its integration into Adobe&#39;s products has already provided evidence that the company&#39;s operational future is bright. Features such as Generative Fill in Photoshop and AI-enhanced video editing tools in Premiere Pro will likely create a new era in the creative profession where old skills become less useful, and the strategy of content creation and the quality of imagination become paramount.</p><p>The company&#39;s enterprise solutions should also not be underestimated, with offerings like GenStudio combining content ideation, creation, production, and activation with generative AI. This domain enhances its moat in professional creative services by placing it as a foundational player in the enterprise content supply chain.</p><p>In my opinion, investors would be wise to notice the quality that Adobe is well known for and has retained through its many decades of operation. The company is well known for being reliable, sophisticated, innovative and advanced relative to the status quo in creative technology. As such, investors should ask themselves whether they believe the company&#39;s values are conducive to long-term and stable stock returns. In my opinion, management has evidenced the correct dose of agility and reinforcing commitment to its biggest technological moats.</p><h2 id=\"id_3112495771\">Growth Catalysts &amp; Competitive Threats</h2><p>With the growing demand for digital content, Adobe&#39;s creative tools and content management solutions are arguably well-positioned for expansion. By expanding its presence in the enterprise sector and through strategic partnerships, such as the integration of Adobe Experience Cloud with Microsoft 365, marketers are likely to be able to work more efficiently, driving customer acquisition and retention. In addition, the partnership focuses on uniting data, content, and processes, and the opportunity for further strategic partnerships remains strong for further future market accretion.</p><p>There are also emerging technologies like augmented reality and virtual reality, which are likely to have heavy creative components, which open up new market opportunities for the company. Adobe Aero is a powerful tool that allows users to create interactive AR experiences, integrating seamlessly with Photoshop, Illustrator, Substance 3D and other Adobe applications. This can be used to create content from virtual exhibits in museums to interactive marketing campaigns. Adobe Substance 3D is a suite of tools designed for creating and texturing 3D models, supporting the creation of immersive VR environments used in fields like gaming, architecture, and entertainment. Management is already preparing for the metaverse by developing tools that can facilitate the creation of interactive 3D worlds. Brands like Coca-Cola (KO), Epic Games, and NASCAR are already collaborating with Adobe to build such experiences.</p><p>As I mentioned previously, some analysts are arguing that generative AI from companies like OpenAI, Google (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) might be able to take market share from Adobe. Partly, this could be true at the lower ends of the market, but I see it unlikely for the bespoke and sophisticated creative markets. There are also high-quality open-source creative tools and free alternatives (like Canva for graphics) that might erode Adobe&#39;s market share. Again, this is likely to be eroded in the market for individual creators or small businesses. The question Adobe&#39;s shareholders would be wise to ask is whether we are moving toward an economy of individual creators as time progresses—an economic quality that might become evermore present as AI becomes more capable of automating corporate functions. According to Goldman Sachs, the creator economy is expected to roughly double from $250B in 2023 to $480B by 2027. Its report states that the number of global creators is projected to grow at a 10-20% CAGR over the next five years.</p><h2 id=\"id_72803000\">Financial &amp; Peer Analysis</h2><p>In my opinion, the top three publicly traded companies that pose a competitive threat to Adobe over the next 10 years are Microsoft, Salesforce (CRM) and Autodesk (ADSK).</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>Microsoft competes in several key areas, including cloud services, productivity software, and design tools.</p></li><li><p>Salesforce competes in the customer relationship management and marketing automation fields.</p></li><li><p>Autodesk competes with Adobe in 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software markets.</p></li></ol><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>ADBE</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>MSFT</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>CRM</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>ADSK</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Historical FWD Revenue Growth 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.59%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.99%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19.53%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.21%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Historical FWD Diluted EPS Growth 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19.06%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.66%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.65%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.66%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Historical FWD Free Cash Flow Growth 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.76%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.66%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25.39%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Equity-to-Asset Ratio</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.52</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.62</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.22</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>TTM Net Income Margin 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.50%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15.67%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FWD P/E GAAP Ratio</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.70</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.78</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Adobe has a notably high net margin compared to its peers, and its growth rates are highly competitive—better than Microsoft in top and bottom lines and free cash flow growth over the past five years. In my opinion, each of these companies is likely to benefit from margin expansion due to automation and AI, but in my opinion, ADBE, MSFT, and CRM are likely to experience more accretive results from their proprietary AI integrated into their systems bespoke, as opposed to ADSK, whose proprietary AI models such Project Bernini are tailored to specific niche use-cases rather than having broader enterprise applications. Adobe&#39;s Sensei, Microsoft&#39;s Azure AI and Dynamics 365 AI, and Salesforce&#39;s Einstein AI are well-integrated across their respective platforms.</p><p>As I mentioned above, Adobe&#39;s integration of AI into its products has been the core driver of its recent success. In Q2 2024 earnings, the company&#39;s generative AI model was reported to have significant adoption, increasing the Creative Cloud subscriber rates. For the quarter, Adobe reported 11% YoY revenue growth, and it attributed its generative AI Firefly model family and the Acrobat AI Assistant as having played a crucial role in driving subscription rates and user retention due to efficiency benefits. In my opinion, the company is on to something crucial here as most of its customers use its products for professional use cases, and the efficiency gains provided by the company&#39;s AI services are likely to boost users&#39; personal or enterprise cash flows.</p><p>Over the next few years, Wall Street analysts are estimating that the firm&#39;s revenue growth is likely to ease to around 11% per annum. I think this is a reasonable expectation, but I also think the company is likely to maintain these still strong growth rates quite consistently over the next decade as its position in advanced AI creative services becomes more prominent. As a result, the current valuation looks quite appealing to me compared to historically, even if we are likely to see a moderate correction in valuation multiples.</p><h2 id=\"id_436422991\">Value Analysis &amp; Price Target</h2><p>Adobe has rich valuation multiples, but as the following table shows, this is not unusual for companies in its field. As we can also see, ADBE stock is currently trading at a discount from its five-year average in both FWD P/E GAAP and P/S ratios. This is warranted because the company&#39;s future earnings estimates are likely to be somewhat lower moving forward, which is the consensus on Wall Street and also logical if we consider the market saturation and growing competitive threats, which include a potentially new creator economy that is evolving to be reliant on cheaper AI creative solutions, like DALL·E, ChatGPT, and cheaper graphic design platforms like Canva—all a significant threat to Photoshop.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>ADBE</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>MSFT</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>CRM</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>ADSK</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FWD P/E GAAP Ratio</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.70</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.78</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FWD P/E GAAP Ratio 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NM</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>94.09</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FWD P/S Ratio</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13.58</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.51</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FWD P/S Ratio 5Y Avg</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13.09</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.37</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.47</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11.05</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>This comes at a time when Microsoft, arguably Adobe&#39;s largest competitor, has an expanding P/S and P/E ratio. Again, this is arguably warranted because the company has been expanding its net margin much more aggressively than Adobe over the past 10 years, whose net margin has actually contracted from its median over the time period by about 2 percentage points.</p><p>In my opinion, it is not unreasonable to expect Adobe&#39;s P/E GAAP ratio to contract slightly more over the next decade as its fundamental growth begins to stabilize into more moderate annual rates. I believe a P/E GAAP ratio of around 35 is one reasonable prediction for the company in 2034. In addition, I am forecasting 12.5% annual EPS growth over the next decade, resulting in a 2034 price target of $1,272.95, as the current basic EPS is $11.20. The implied 10-year CAGR is 9%, as the current stock price is $526.88.</p><p>However, there is also the possibility that its P/E ratio does not contract as much as this. In an alternative scenario where the company&#39;s P/E ratio contracts to only 40 over the period, the 2034 price target would be $1,454.80. The implied 10-year CAGR would then be 10.7%.</p><p>I think 12.5% EPS growth over the next decade is reasonable to predict because while there might be gains in growth in creative markets as a result of administrative jobs becoming automated, as I mentioned in my operations analysis above, the economy of individual creators with smaller budgets is also likely to grow. If, as one would hope, they choose the sophisticated and slightly more expensive models offered by Adobe, the company may be able to achieve a 10-year 15% EPS CAGR, which would result in a price target of $1,902.77 if the company&#39;s P/E ratio is 42 in 2034. The implied CAGR in this instance would be 13.9%.</p><p>In my opinion, the likely outcome here is a 2034 stock price of approximately $1,500 and a 10-year CAGR of approximately 11%. For this reason, primarily, my rating is a Hold despite the operational positives surrounding AI that the firm has set itself up to deliver.</p><h2 id=\"id_2056015049\">Risk Analysis &amp; Closing Sentiments</h2><p>I consider Adobe to be an excellent company. Part of what I admire about it and why I believe it offers a good place in portfolios despite it being unlikely that it will outperform the market long-term is that it offers a slow and steady approach to wealth accumulation. In my opinion, Adobe is a good investment for those who are risk-averse. However, such investments don&#39;t provide exposure to the higher returns one might be looking for in the technology markets.</p><p>Momentum and value investors might benefit from short-term results related to AI integrations and a cheap valuation compared to historically, but over a long-term horizon, investors should expect this to stabilize into more moderate annual growth unless certain catalysts like advances in the individual creator economy prove to be highly accretive to Adobe despite growing cost-effective competition.</p><p>The future economy that could arise with the growing utilization of digital economies like YouTube and the metaverse could catalyze Adobe&#39;s growth, but it also opens up areas of vulnerability. As artificial intelligence capabilities scale, a period of rapid technological change is likely to ensue. This creates shifting business models and arguably a software market that becomes democratized. There are already multiple AI-led companies that are producing cheaper software solutions, like Photoshop, at a huge reduction in price but with high levels of technical capability.</p><p>Adobe would likely benefit from adapting its strategy and reducing costs or offering versions of its applications, which are stripped back for casual content creators if the economy continues to become less enterprise-driven and more about independent freelancing. A strategy such as tiered subscription models would likely work better in the creative economy I think we are moving toward, led in the West and eventually across the globe. Management may also be able to mitigate risks through partnerships with freelance platforms like Upwork (UPWK) and Fiverr (FVRR) and even seek out partnerships with leading AI companies to consolidate its moat in advanced offerings at accessible prices through popular platforms.</p><h2 id=\"id_1837284377\">Conclusion</h2><p>Adobe will be one of many companies facing heightened levels of instability during this time of technological change. In my opinion, there are many opportunities for management to capitalize on, but also many areas of vulnerability if its operational strategies are not thoroughly planned and executed well. In a realistic scenario where the company manages notable successes but also concedes market share to competitors in certain areas, the company is probably likely to generate a CAGR of around 11% over the next decade, in my opinion. While this estimate could be beaten by higher levels of adoption of Adobe&#39;s services, it is likely going to take a more agile approach to the business model and product development to achieve this—there has not been mounting evidence so far from the company that it is preparing enough to take this more proactive approach to combat growing market pressures.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe: Don't Expect It To Beat The Market Long-Term (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe: Don't Expect It To Beat The Market Long-Term (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-28 13:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701407-adobe-dont-expect-it-to-beat-the-market-long-term-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Adobe's strategic AI integration solidifies its dominance in professional creative software, potentially outperforming emerging competitors.While Adobe is poised for growth due to increasing demand ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701407-adobe-dont-expect-it-to-beat-the-market-long-term-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701407-adobe-dont-expect-it-to-beat-the-market-long-term-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2446592258","content_text":"Adobe's strategic AI integration solidifies its dominance in professional creative software, potentially outperforming emerging competitors.While Adobe is poised for growth due to increasing demand for digital content, it faces competition from emerging AI-powered tools and cost-effective alternatives, potentially impacting market share.Adobe's current valuation is favorable compared to historical levels, but future growth is expected to moderate. A projected 11% 10-year CAGR suggests a stable but low alpha investment opportunity.I last covered Adobe in January; I put out a Buy rating at the time, and since then, the stock has lost around 14% in price. In large part, I consider this to be because the stock was slightly overvalued at the time. After the recent reduction, I think the stock is more reasonably valued, but I am downgrading my rating to a Hold after more thorough research into the company, which assesses its long-term price CAGR over the next 10+ years as being unlikely to significantly outperform the market. The company has a portfolio of strong software offerings, and while it has developed arguably its most significant moat in creative applications, in my opinion, its CRM solutions are likely to continue to be accretive and scale. I consider Adobe strong because it is integrating AI into its offerings, and I think its flagship product, Photoshop, is likely to significantly outcompete generative AI competitors because of its advanced capabilities, including nuanced editing. Adobe's moat is in professional creative applications, and I don't expect this to change—in fact, it has the potential to continue scaling as the technology sector and trends in digitalization continue to expand. However, new vulnerabilities in the changing creator economy warrant caution from investors seeking high long-term price returns.AI-Augmented Professional Creative SevicesAdobe is currently heavily integrating AI across its Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud. AI tools like Adobe Firefly are enhancing the capabilities of applications like Photoshop, Illustrator, and Premiere Pro. Considering the company's core market has always been professional creatives—a broad market of designers, photographers, videographers, and marketers—the addition of AI arguably places Adobe in an even stronger position than before. I find it unlikely that competitors like OpenAI's Sora or other generative AI models will be able to compete significantly any time soon in the advanced creative domain. For the foreseeable future, Adobe is likely to retain its moat as the go-to application suite for creative professionals.The commercial release of Firefly and its integration into Adobe's products has already provided evidence that the company's operational future is bright. Features such as Generative Fill in Photoshop and AI-enhanced video editing tools in Premiere Pro will likely create a new era in the creative profession where old skills become less useful, and the strategy of content creation and the quality of imagination become paramount.The company's enterprise solutions should also not be underestimated, with offerings like GenStudio combining content ideation, creation, production, and activation with generative AI. This domain enhances its moat in professional creative services by placing it as a foundational player in the enterprise content supply chain.In my opinion, investors would be wise to notice the quality that Adobe is well known for and has retained through its many decades of operation. The company is well known for being reliable, sophisticated, innovative and advanced relative to the status quo in creative technology. As such, investors should ask themselves whether they believe the company's values are conducive to long-term and stable stock returns. In my opinion, management has evidenced the correct dose of agility and reinforcing commitment to its biggest technological moats.Growth Catalysts & Competitive ThreatsWith the growing demand for digital content, Adobe's creative tools and content management solutions are arguably well-positioned for expansion. By expanding its presence in the enterprise sector and through strategic partnerships, such as the integration of Adobe Experience Cloud with Microsoft 365, marketers are likely to be able to work more efficiently, driving customer acquisition and retention. In addition, the partnership focuses on uniting data, content, and processes, and the opportunity for further strategic partnerships remains strong for further future market accretion.There are also emerging technologies like augmented reality and virtual reality, which are likely to have heavy creative components, which open up new market opportunities for the company. Adobe Aero is a powerful tool that allows users to create interactive AR experiences, integrating seamlessly with Photoshop, Illustrator, Substance 3D and other Adobe applications. This can be used to create content from virtual exhibits in museums to interactive marketing campaigns. Adobe Substance 3D is a suite of tools designed for creating and texturing 3D models, supporting the creation of immersive VR environments used in fields like gaming, architecture, and entertainment. Management is already preparing for the metaverse by developing tools that can facilitate the creation of interactive 3D worlds. Brands like Coca-Cola (KO), Epic Games, and NASCAR are already collaborating with Adobe to build such experiences.As I mentioned previously, some analysts are arguing that generative AI from companies like OpenAI, Google (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) might be able to take market share from Adobe. Partly, this could be true at the lower ends of the market, but I see it unlikely for the bespoke and sophisticated creative markets. There are also high-quality open-source creative tools and free alternatives (like Canva for graphics) that might erode Adobe's market share. Again, this is likely to be eroded in the market for individual creators or small businesses. The question Adobe's shareholders would be wise to ask is whether we are moving toward an economy of individual creators as time progresses—an economic quality that might become evermore present as AI becomes more capable of automating corporate functions. According to Goldman Sachs, the creator economy is expected to roughly double from $250B in 2023 to $480B by 2027. Its report states that the number of global creators is projected to grow at a 10-20% CAGR over the next five years.Financial & Peer AnalysisIn my opinion, the top three publicly traded companies that pose a competitive threat to Adobe over the next 10 years are Microsoft, Salesforce (CRM) and Autodesk (ADSK).Microsoft competes in several key areas, including cloud services, productivity software, and design tools.Salesforce competes in the customer relationship management and marketing automation fields.Autodesk competes with Adobe in 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software markets.ADBEMSFTCRMADSKHistorical FWD Revenue Growth 5Y Avg15.59%12.99%19.53%16.21%Historical FWD Diluted EPS Growth 5Y Avg19.06%15.66%16.65%36.66%Historical FWD Free Cash Flow Growth 5Y Avg15.76%12.66%22.28%25.39%Equity-to-Asset Ratio0.50.520.620.22TTM Net Income Margin 5Y Avg30.28%34.50%7.32%15.67%FWD P/E GAAP Ratio43.7037.9039.5548.78Adobe has a notably high net margin compared to its peers, and its growth rates are highly competitive—better than Microsoft in top and bottom lines and free cash flow growth over the past five years. In my opinion, each of these companies is likely to benefit from margin expansion due to automation and AI, but in my opinion, ADBE, MSFT, and CRM are likely to experience more accretive results from their proprietary AI integrated into their systems bespoke, as opposed to ADSK, whose proprietary AI models such Project Bernini are tailored to specific niche use-cases rather than having broader enterprise applications. Adobe's Sensei, Microsoft's Azure AI and Dynamics 365 AI, and Salesforce's Einstein AI are well-integrated across their respective platforms.As I mentioned above, Adobe's integration of AI into its products has been the core driver of its recent success. In Q2 2024 earnings, the company's generative AI model was reported to have significant adoption, increasing the Creative Cloud subscriber rates. For the quarter, Adobe reported 11% YoY revenue growth, and it attributed its generative AI Firefly model family and the Acrobat AI Assistant as having played a crucial role in driving subscription rates and user retention due to efficiency benefits. In my opinion, the company is on to something crucial here as most of its customers use its products for professional use cases, and the efficiency gains provided by the company's AI services are likely to boost users' personal or enterprise cash flows.Over the next few years, Wall Street analysts are estimating that the firm's revenue growth is likely to ease to around 11% per annum. I think this is a reasonable expectation, but I also think the company is likely to maintain these still strong growth rates quite consistently over the next decade as its position in advanced AI creative services becomes more prominent. As a result, the current valuation looks quite appealing to me compared to historically, even if we are likely to see a moderate correction in valuation multiples.Value Analysis & Price TargetAdobe has rich valuation multiples, but as the following table shows, this is not unusual for companies in its field. As we can also see, ADBE stock is currently trading at a discount from its five-year average in both FWD P/E GAAP and P/S ratios. This is warranted because the company's future earnings estimates are likely to be somewhat lower moving forward, which is the consensus on Wall Street and also logical if we consider the market saturation and growing competitive threats, which include a potentially new creator economy that is evolving to be reliant on cheaper AI creative solutions, like DALL·E, ChatGPT, and cheaper graphic design platforms like Canva—all a significant threat to Photoshop.ADBEMSFTCRMADSKFWD P/E GAAP Ratio43.7037.9039.5548.78FWD P/E GAAP Ratio 5Y Avg45.5731.04NM94.09FWD P/S Ratio10.9413.586.148.51FWD P/S Ratio 5Y Avg13.0910.377.4711.05This comes at a time when Microsoft, arguably Adobe's largest competitor, has an expanding P/S and P/E ratio. Again, this is arguably warranted because the company has been expanding its net margin much more aggressively than Adobe over the past 10 years, whose net margin has actually contracted from its median over the time period by about 2 percentage points.In my opinion, it is not unreasonable to expect Adobe's P/E GAAP ratio to contract slightly more over the next decade as its fundamental growth begins to stabilize into more moderate annual rates. I believe a P/E GAAP ratio of around 35 is one reasonable prediction for the company in 2034. In addition, I am forecasting 12.5% annual EPS growth over the next decade, resulting in a 2034 price target of $1,272.95, as the current basic EPS is $11.20. The implied 10-year CAGR is 9%, as the current stock price is $526.88.However, there is also the possibility that its P/E ratio does not contract as much as this. In an alternative scenario where the company's P/E ratio contracts to only 40 over the period, the 2034 price target would be $1,454.80. The implied 10-year CAGR would then be 10.7%.I think 12.5% EPS growth over the next decade is reasonable to predict because while there might be gains in growth in creative markets as a result of administrative jobs becoming automated, as I mentioned in my operations analysis above, the economy of individual creators with smaller budgets is also likely to grow. If, as one would hope, they choose the sophisticated and slightly more expensive models offered by Adobe, the company may be able to achieve a 10-year 15% EPS CAGR, which would result in a price target of $1,902.77 if the company's P/E ratio is 42 in 2034. The implied CAGR in this instance would be 13.9%.In my opinion, the likely outcome here is a 2034 stock price of approximately $1,500 and a 10-year CAGR of approximately 11%. For this reason, primarily, my rating is a Hold despite the operational positives surrounding AI that the firm has set itself up to deliver.Risk Analysis & Closing SentimentsI consider Adobe to be an excellent company. Part of what I admire about it and why I believe it offers a good place in portfolios despite it being unlikely that it will outperform the market long-term is that it offers a slow and steady approach to wealth accumulation. In my opinion, Adobe is a good investment for those who are risk-averse. However, such investments don't provide exposure to the higher returns one might be looking for in the technology markets.Momentum and value investors might benefit from short-term results related to AI integrations and a cheap valuation compared to historically, but over a long-term horizon, investors should expect this to stabilize into more moderate annual growth unless certain catalysts like advances in the individual creator economy prove to be highly accretive to Adobe despite growing cost-effective competition.The future economy that could arise with the growing utilization of digital economies like YouTube and the metaverse could catalyze Adobe's growth, but it also opens up areas of vulnerability. As artificial intelligence capabilities scale, a period of rapid technological change is likely to ensue. This creates shifting business models and arguably a software market that becomes democratized. There are already multiple AI-led companies that are producing cheaper software solutions, like Photoshop, at a huge reduction in price but with high levels of technical capability.Adobe would likely benefit from adapting its strategy and reducing costs or offering versions of its applications, which are stripped back for casual content creators if the economy continues to become less enterprise-driven and more about independent freelancing. A strategy such as tiered subscription models would likely work better in the creative economy I think we are moving toward, led in the West and eventually across the globe. Management may also be able to mitigate risks through partnerships with freelance platforms like Upwork (UPWK) and Fiverr (FVRR) and even seek out partnerships with leading AI companies to consolidate its moat in advanced offerings at accessible prices through popular platforms.ConclusionAdobe will be one of many companies facing heightened levels of instability during this time of technological change. In my opinion, there are many opportunities for management to capitalize on, but also many areas of vulnerability if its operational strategies are not thoroughly planned and executed well. In a realistic scenario where the company manages notable successes but also concedes market share to competitors in certain areas, the company is probably likely to generate a CAGR of around 11% over the next decade, in my opinion. While this estimate could be beaten by higher levels of adoption of Adobe's services, it is likely going to take a more agile approach to the business model and product development to achieve this—there has not been mounting evidence so far from the company that it is preparing enough to take this more proactive approach to combat growing market pressures.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187120491192496,"gmtCreate":1686723197678,"gmtModify":1686723201730,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yield +1000% pleaseeeee... need to quit my day job&nbsp;","listText":"Yield +1000% pleaseeeee... need to quit my day job&nbsp;","text":"Yield +1000% pleaseeeee... need to quit my day job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187120491192496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314157893669000,"gmtCreate":1717719143881,"gmtModify":1717724644652,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"And nobody cares about your fucking two cents&nbsp;","listText":"And nobody cares about your fucking two cents&nbsp;","text":"And nobody cares about your fucking two cents","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314157893669000","repostId":"2441755177","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":256573734080696,"gmtCreate":1703669749928,"gmtModify":1703669756043,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256573734080696","repostId":"256295028457480","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":256295028457480,"gmtCreate":1703579947061,"gmtModify":1703656881051,"author":{"id":"9000000000000419","authorId":"9000000000000419","name":"WallStreet_Tiger","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1fdbba25bcf5dea3f281241ba1320d10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000419","authorIdStr":"9000000000000419"},"themes":[],"title":"2023 Recap: Top 10 Most Popular US Stocks in Tiger Community!","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>——ChatGPT, Copilot, BlizzardThe emergence of ChatGPT has changed the landscape of the internet and also altered the way people live and work. One of the biggest winners is Microsoft, one of the major shareholders of OpenAI. In addition to increasing the usage of its own browser and enhancing the competitiveness of its cloud services, embedding ChatGPT directly into its Office and other products has directly boosted the company's revenue. Furthermore, the $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard this year has further strengthened Microsoft's position in the gaming industry.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>——+238%, H200, China-BanThe rise of AI has led to a sudden surge in research and development","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>——ChatGPT, Copilot, BlizzardThe emergence of ChatGPT has changed the landscape of the internet and also altered the way people live and work. One of the biggest winners is Microsoft, one of the major shareholders of OpenAI. In addition to increasing the usage of its own browser and enhancing the competitiveness of its cloud services, embedding ChatGPT directly into its Office and other products has directly boosted the company's revenue. Furthermore, the $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard this year has further strengthened Microsoft's position in the gaming industry.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>——+238%, H200, China-BanThe rise of AI has led to a sudden surge in research and development","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$——ChatGPT, Copilot, BlizzardThe emergence of ChatGPT has changed the landscape of the internet and also altered the way people live and work. One of the biggest winners is Microsoft, one of the major shareholders of OpenAI. In addition to increasing the usage of its own browser and enhancing the competitiveness of its cloud services, embedding ChatGPT directly into its Office and other products has directly boosted the company's revenue. Furthermore, the $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard this year has further strengthened Microsoft's position in the gaming industry.$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$——+238%, H200, China-BanThe rise of AI has led to a sudden surge in research and development","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62c15b56987a01207df2dde7d2e58b2c","width":"1700","height":"2680"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256295028457480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":224812944052224,"gmtCreate":1695895034717,"gmtModify":1695895040037,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ride along&nbsp;","listText":"Ride along&nbsp;","text":"Ride along","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4949c30f786d7f9b9916395cf15ee76","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/224812944052224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186747319156768,"gmtCreate":1686631882591,"gmtModify":1686631886180,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186747319156768","repostId":"186691110318128","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":186691110318128,"gmtCreate":1686587203563,"gmtModify":1686587217073,"author":{"id":"4102740637684170","authorId":"4102740637684170","name":"OptionsDelta","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab2017d32f95a165639de659b21cd1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102740637684170","authorIdStr":"4102740637684170"},"themes":[],"title":"Unbelievably, the bull market will continue into next year","htmlText":"If you think Microsoft is too expensive, consider Apple.Last week, I mentioned that Apple's new product vision pro released next year will bring a disruptive upgrade experience, which will definitely be reflected in Apple's options order, and institutions will be strongly bullish.I don't know, I didn't expect it to be so strong that institutions actually sold ATM puts:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AAPL%2020231117%20180.0%20PUT\">$AAPL 20231117 180.0 PUT$</a>Option volume 2500, sellers margin of about 13.5 million. The option expiration date is November 17, and the institution believes that Apple's stock price will stabilize above 180 on November 17, or above 180 on that day.sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AAPL%2020240119%20215.0%20CALL\">$AAP</a>","listText":"If you think Microsoft is too expensive, consider Apple.Last week, I mentioned that Apple's new product vision pro released next year will bring a disruptive upgrade experience, which will definitely be reflected in Apple's options order, and institutions will be strongly bullish.I don't know, I didn't expect it to be so strong that institutions actually sold ATM puts:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AAPL%2020231117%20180.0%20PUT\">$AAPL 20231117 180.0 PUT$</a>Option volume 2500, sellers margin of about 13.5 million. The option expiration date is November 17, and the institution believes that Apple's stock price will stabilize above 180 on November 17, or above 180 on that day.sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AAPL%2020240119%20215.0%20CALL\">$AAP</a>","text":"If you think Microsoft is too expensive, consider Apple.Last week, I mentioned that Apple's new product vision pro released next year will bring a disruptive upgrade experience, which will definitely be reflected in Apple's options order, and institutions will be strongly bullish.I don't know, I didn't expect it to be so strong that institutions actually sold ATM puts:sell $AAPL 20231117 180.0 PUT$Option volume 2500, sellers margin of about 13.5 million. The option expiration date is November 17, and the institution believes that Apple's stock price will stabilize above 180 on November 17, or above 180 on that day.sell $AAP","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8826e02565b650ff5f7bc24ef470cb2","width":"2422","height":"316"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/391d3cf8e66dc7ac6180395ab985f0c3","width":"2408","height":"620"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89511e1c0705590bde936fb8b3b4be7d","width":"2410","height":"266"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186691110318128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186747241697384,"gmtCreate":1686631868112,"gmtModify":1686631871655,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186747241697384","repostId":"186047476355080","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":186047476355080,"gmtCreate":1686461020965,"gmtModify":1708031124672,"author":{"id":"4102123614530830","authorId":"4102123614530830","name":"nerdbull1669","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ac2db9ff7976dac4aa567ce14027bd6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102123614530830","authorIdStr":"4102123614530830"},"themes":[],"title":"My Trading Strategy For Week of 12-16 June 2023","htmlText":"We will be having the FOMC meeting for the month of June from 13-14 June 2023. So my trading strategy for the week of 12-16 June 2023 shall cover before and after the FOMC Meeting. The main questions on investors’ mind would be “will there be a rate hike pause?”, how is the possibility of rate hike vs pause? This is how my previous week result far : <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/183979767034008\" target=\"_blank\">My Trading Strategy For Week of 05-09 June 2023</a> We have BABA which has a 1.80% gain, SOFI which has a 14% gain, but we have a loss of 0.91% if we went into AAPL last week I shall share this week stocks that I will be focusing. I would be looking at these 2 stocks, which are in these 2 sectors: Chinese ADRs - XPeng Inc. (XPEV) Fintech - SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI) Chinese","listText":"We will be having the FOMC meeting for the month of June from 13-14 June 2023. So my trading strategy for the week of 12-16 June 2023 shall cover before and after the FOMC Meeting. The main questions on investors’ mind would be “will there be a rate hike pause?”, how is the possibility of rate hike vs pause? This is how my previous week result far : <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/183979767034008\" target=\"_blank\">My Trading Strategy For Week of 05-09 June 2023</a> We have BABA which has a 1.80% gain, SOFI which has a 14% gain, but we have a loss of 0.91% if we went into AAPL last week I shall share this week stocks that I will be focusing. I would be looking at these 2 stocks, which are in these 2 sectors: Chinese ADRs - XPeng Inc. (XPEV) Fintech - SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI) Chinese","text":"We will be having the FOMC meeting for the month of June from 13-14 June 2023. So my trading strategy for the week of 12-16 June 2023 shall cover before and after the FOMC Meeting. The main questions on investors’ mind would be “will there be a rate hike pause?”, how is the possibility of rate hike vs pause? This is how my previous week result far : My Trading Strategy For Week of 05-09 June 2023 We have BABA which has a 1.80% gain, SOFI which has a 14% gain, but we have a loss of 0.91% if we went into AAPL last week I shall share this week stocks that I will be focusing. I would be looking at these 2 stocks, which are in these 2 sectors: Chinese ADRs - XPeng Inc. (XPEV) Fintech - SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI) Chinese","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bddb035f3585e5d709021c167c2a3597","width":"592","height":"341"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5a9f0756299e6284c895d7192039ce7e","width":"1386","height":"409"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bccb1940db1e01649f97b64d15ff9964","width":"1309","height":"666"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186047476355080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185343471984672,"gmtCreate":1686289146465,"gmtModify":1686289149873,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185343471984672","repostId":"184884784955440","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":184884784955440,"gmtCreate":1686146206160,"gmtModify":1686146221929,"author":{"id":"3527667620927015","authorId":"3527667620927015","name":"Tiger_Earnings","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1849fb1fb43d93db3974fd09c5f65ff1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667620927015","authorIdStr":"3527667620927015"},"themes":[],"title":"New High Stocks: Big Tech vs. Semiconductors! Who Will be the Next?","htmlText":"After <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> hit all-time-high, semiconductors and big techs represented by the two stocks also hit a new high. They are <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVEC\">$NVE Corp(NVEC)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVMI\">$Nova Measuring Instruments(NVMI)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDFS\">$PDF Solutions(PDFS)$</a> .Big Tech Show Strength in 2023Yesterday, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a> climbed 3.1% after JPMorgan increased its price target on","listText":"After <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> hit all-time-high, semiconductors and big techs represented by the two stocks also hit a new high. They are <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVEC\">$NVE Corp(NVEC)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVMI\">$Nova Measuring Instruments(NVMI)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDFS\">$PDF Solutions(PDFS)$</a> .Big Tech Show Strength in 2023Yesterday, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a> climbed 3.1% after JPMorgan increased its price target on","text":"After $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and $Apple(AAPL)$ hit all-time-high, semiconductors and big techs represented by the two stocks also hit a new high. They are $Netflix(NFLX)$, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $NVE Corp(NVEC)$ , $Nova Measuring Instruments(NVMI)$ , $PDF Solutions(PDFS)$ .Big Tech Show Strength in 2023Yesterday, $Netflix(NFLX)$ climbed 3.1% after JPMorgan increased its price target on","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5e360a1a4ed6b57698104587df59d665","width":"1080","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf6273f7819ea85b712d030d6671fa27","width":"560","height":"240"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9330ffddb7f84242e2aa3d9daca2a2a","width":"1563","height":"836"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184884784955440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939903403,"gmtCreate":1662036710905,"gmtModify":1676536672304,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6994cd307731447142cd0e4476358d03","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939903403","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990341033,"gmtCreate":1660296702925,"gmtModify":1676533446344,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woohoo","listText":"Woohoo","text":"Woohoo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8733a93c14e38e35835d091268231288","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990341033","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025341589,"gmtCreate":1653627045042,"gmtModify":1676535317528,"author":{"id":"4115630127114652","authorId":"4115630127114652","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0cbac07840d0d1ae81ce36b7e78fede4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4115630127114652","authorIdStr":"4115630127114652"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PANW\">$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$</a>Good buy&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PANW\">$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$</a>Good buy&nbsp;","text":"$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$Good buy","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b03bd3935ce42e8aa11bcee56da030d7","width":"1125","height":"3660"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025341589","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}