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2022-08-20

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Are frequent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials setting the tone for Powell's central bank meeting next week?

2022-07-17

$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$..

2022-06-14

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Fed's shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?

2022-06-09

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US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down with U.S. Treasury Yields above 3%

2022-06-12

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Alibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again

2022-08-28

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Li Auto responds to L9 delivery delay: due to supply delay at Sichuan range extender factory

2022-07-11

$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$..

2022-08-20

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Are frequent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials setting the tone for Powell's central bank meeting next week?

2022-07-14

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2022-06-15

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Dingdong Maicai's revenue in the first quarter was 5.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.2%.

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17:30","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Tencent Holdings repurchased 1.1 million shares today, spending approximately HK$351 million.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188730327","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"腾讯控股：于9月5日回购110万股，回购价格为316.6-324港元，共耗资约3.51亿港元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>On September 5, the company repurchased 1.1 million shares at a price of HK$316.6-324, costing a total of approximately HK$351 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ee177bdf306f991afb7d40f950e889\" tg-width=\"1576\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Holdings repurchased 1.1 million shares today, spending approximately HK$351 million.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Holdings repurchased 1.1 million shares today, spending approximately HK$351 million.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-05 17:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>On September 5, the company repurchased 1.1 million shares at a price of HK$316.6-324, costing a total of approximately HK$351 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ee177bdf306f991afb7d40f950e889\" tg-width=\"1576\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1526":"科网股","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BK1586":"云计算","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK1517":"云办公","BK1516":"腾讯概念","00700":"腾讯控股","BK1531":"手游股","BK1502":"双十一","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1589":"北水核心资产"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188730327","content_text":"腾讯控股：于9月5日回购110万股，回购价格为316.6-324港元，共耗资约3.51亿港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":0.9,"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933837468,"gmtCreate":1662258404955,"gmtModify":1676537026007,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933837468","repostId":"1183237993","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933922402,"gmtCreate":1662205594406,"gmtModify":1676537018091,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933922402","repostId":"1101174405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101174405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662163894,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101174405?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-03 08:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A grain of dust on Nvidia's head","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101174405","media":"远川研究所","summary":"刚刚开幕的世界人工智能大会上，已经没有人关心今年到底马斯克会语出惊人，还是会BAT三巨头重聚斗法，所有交头接耳的观众就关心一件事——英伟达的A100、H100显卡，真的要断供了吗？一旦英伟达和AMD的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>At the recently opened World Artificial Intelligence Conference, no one cared whether Musk would make a surprising statement this year or whether the BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) giants would reunite and battle it out. All the whispering audience members were concerned about one thing—<b>Are Nvidia's A100 and H100 graphics cards really going to be discontinued?</b>？</p><p><b>If Nvidia and AMD's GPU supplies are cut off, it would be tantamount to fundamentally undermining the development of the artificial intelligence industry.</b>—Every true AI research institution has the A100 and H100.</p><p><b>Nvidia has had a tough time in the past year.</b>In the second quarter of 2022, Nvidia delivered a surprising financial report, with revenue declining by 19% quarter-on-quarter. The gaming business, which supports the main revenue, declined by 44% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year.</p><p>Nvidia's largest business, gaming, collapsed, and its second largest business, data centers, suffered a fundamental blow from the United States, causing its stock price to continue to plummet. Compared to its peak at the end of last year, Nvidia's stock price has now halved, leaving its market capitalization at only $377.4 billion.</p><p>Looking back a year ago, the story of Nvidia was a different narrative:</p><p>In April 2021, Nvidia held a \"metaverse launch event\". Halfway through his speech, CEO Jensen Huang was secretly replaced by a digital human, almost unnoticed. Three months later, the 14-second \"change of scenery\" was made public, and Nvidia successfully earned the title of \"metaverse giant\".</p><p>Without a doubt, in the technology industry, \"metaverse\" was the three most discussed words that year. Taking advantage of the boom, Nvidia's stock price soared. In November, Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed $800 billion, making it the world's most valuable semiconductor company.</p><p>As the infrastructure of metaverse, the computing power support of the AI boom, and the core productivity of cryptocurrency miners, Nvidia's performance this year was also outstanding: total revenue was $26.914 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04aac5b05b0637eff403d850e750a843\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>14 seconds that are hard to distinguish between real and fake</p><p><b>What exactly happened to Nvidia in less than a year?</b></p><p><b>01. Rise: Computing power reverses life and death</b></p><p>To understand Nvidia's current situation, we need to start with the relationship between Nvidia and computing power.</p><p>In Silicon Valley, few entrepreneurs are as stubborn as Nvidia founder Jensen Huang, and his beliefs are simple:<b>Computing power is power</b>。</p><p>With this belief in mind, in 2010, NVIDIA released a new generation of graphics cards with explosive performance and explosive heat generation – the GTX480. Some people have conducted tests and found that the operating temperature of a GTX 480 at full power would often soar to 60 or 70 degrees Celsius, and if you weren't careful, it would take other components with it to the underworld.</p><p>So what? Jensen Huang said, \"I want to think that the greater the computing power, the better.\"</p><p>A year later, Nvidia released its latest graphics card, the GTX590. Not long after a foreign media outlet ran the GTX590 at its maximum power, a wisp of smoke rose from the circuit board, and the nickname \"nuclear bomb\" for NVIDIA graphics cards quickly spread.</p><p>These are just appetizers. When Nvidia released its successor, the GTX 690, netizens angry at its lack of competition directly added it to the encyclopedia entry for \"aircraft carrier killer\". After watching it, the Gansu TV host believed it to be true and wrote it into the oral transcript of the military program:</p><p>“<b>In particular, the improved model equipped with a GTX690 graphics card can destroy an aircraft carrier battle group with a single shot!</b>”</p><p>After the program aired, Silicon Valley madman Jensen Huang was once again crowned a \"two-bomb pioneer\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac73479b1566947e38e4854795412516\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It's a lie that massive computing power destroyed an aircraft carrier cluster, but Nvidia's dream of blowing up its mobile devices is real:</p><p>In 2011, with the decline of traditional PCs and the rise of smartphones, the trend of becoming a new generation of super terminals became increasingly clear: Nvidia, eager to make a name for itself in the smartphone field, launched the world's first quad-core processor, Tegra 3, which offered three times the performance of its predecessor.</p><p>The publicity is wonderful, isn't it? HTC, eager to reverse the decline in its smartphone business, believed it and chose to put a stop to Nvidia's dream: it aggressively used Tegra 3 in its latest flagship phone.</p><p>As a result, the emaciated camel became a feverish camel. The severe overheating problem caused by Tegra 3's excessive computing power accumulation became the final straw that brought HTC's smartphone recovery to a standstill, temporarily bringing Nvidia's journey to a close.</p><p>Jensen Huang's obsession with computing power led Nvidia into a dead end: graphics card combustion and the failure of the smartphone wave once caused Nvidia's stock price to drop by nearly half.</p><p><b>02. Reversal: When computing power truly becomes power</b></p><p>But both failure and success require computing power. At a critical juncture, Jensen Huang's belief that \"computing power will change the world\" has unexpectedly been corroborated in the field of AI.</p><p>Before 2012, AI experienced two waves, both of which were unsustainable due to objective constraints. Simply put, the first limitation is insufficient computing power, while the second is excessive cost.</p><p>Previously, AI recognition relied heavily on the CPU.</p><p>The CPU is suitable for complex general-purpose serial tasks and has up to 16 powerful ALUs (arithmetic logic units) built in. To translate, this is equivalent to a college student who can do calculus, who is smart but inefficient. In 2010, AI pioneer Andrew Ng had to spend 16,000 CPUs to get an AI program to recognize a cat, which was equivalent to forty or fifty internet cafes running at full capacity at the same time, costing about $1 million.</p><p>GPUs are suitable for simple and specific parallel tasks. They have thousands of simple ALUs built in, which is roughly equivalent to hundreds of elementary school students who can only do addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. Their brains are a bit lacking, but they win because of their high efficiency.</p><p>So to summarize, handling complex logical tasks and acting as a commander requires a dedicated CPU. However, GPUs are most suitable for simple, repetitive tasks that involve heavy computing power accumulation.</p><p>Where is it necessary to brutally accumulate computing power? In the past, the only recognized application scenarios for GPUs were games. But Jensen Huang believes that computing power can change the world: in order to better utilize GPU computing power, NVIDIA also launched a software tool called CUDA to lower the barrier to GPU programming, and invested 6 years regardless of cost.</p><p>This finally made AI scholars realize the power of GPU computing power.</p><p>For scenarios such as AI deep learning, \"100 elementary school student brains\" are sufficient—which means that high-performance GPUs are clearly more suitable. After Andrew Ng replaced his original AI program with a GPU, he was surprised to find that only 12 were needed.</p><p>This major discovery, combined with software breakthroughs, has ignited the third wave of AI development globally and propelled NVIDIA, which also possesses an AI software and hardware ecosystem, to the pinnacle: today, Amazon, the world's largest public cloud, and the AI research of BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) all rely heavily on the technical support of NVIDIA GPUs.</p><p><b>Wherever there is AI, everyone mentions Nvidia.</b>。 Just as Jensen Huang firmly believed, computing power has truly changed the world this time.</p><p>Coincidentally, cryptocurrencies that emerged around the same time also relied heavily on GPU computing power. With the support of numerous trends, graphics cards have been in short supply for many years, and \"domineering CEO\" Jensen Huang has become the veritable \"godfather of graphics cards\". The \"believers\" of the graphics card forum once recorded these glorious deeds in the form of the Records of the Grand Historian, and commented at the end:</p><p>\"First came the benevolent, then came the heavens; with a graphics card in hand, he can destroy immortals.\"</p><p><b>03. Coronation: GPU Devours Everything</b></p><p>At the 2019 GTC conference, Jensen Huang once again publicly mentioned his belief in computing power: \"Even if Moore's Law comes to an end, GPUs will be omnipotent.\" Finally, in 2021, his belief was widely recognized in the secondary market. Investment giants like Sister Wood have increased their investments one after another, and the secondary market has been soaring, with its market value tripling in a year.</p><p>This mainly stems from two growths and two entirely new narratives.</p><p>The growth came from two main businesses: gaming and data centers.</p><p>Due to the extended stay-at-home time caused by the pandemic, the demand for games has increased. According to Newzoo, the global gaming market grew by 1.4% in 2021. To run AAA games on PC, a discrete graphics card is an essential tool. Currently, there are almost only two options: Nvidia and AMD. Nvidia has an absolute advantage in market share - in the third quarter of the same year, Nvidia captured 83% of the market.</p><p>However, besides gamers, there is an even larger group rushing to buy gaming graphics cards.</p><p>In 2021, the cryptocurrency market ushered in a new bull market: Bitcoin more than doubled, Ethereum quadrupled, and LUNA, which later caused an earthquake in the cryptocurrency world, rose more than 80 times. The market boom has given rise to a large number of \"crypto miners\". Mining is a means of producing cryptocurrency, relying on powerful GPU computing power. Mining machines made from top-of-the-line gaming graphics cards have become veritable \"gold mining shovels,\" and computing power has become synonymous with \"wealth.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5532287cd6f926f8872e91441dd9483a\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bitcoin surges</p><p>The resulting surge in demand led to a rise in both the volume and price of NVIDIA graphics cards, and the gaming business also took off, generating $3.2 billion in revenue in the third quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 42%.</p><p>At the same time, the global data center industry also ushered in a spring: its scale reached US$76.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, and the growth rate is expected to remain above 10% in the coming years. [5] Data centers are a product of the AI development wave, which means that Nvidia, which has both CUDA and GPUs, has once again won big. Of the world's top 500 supercomputers, 342 are serviced by Nvidia.</p><p>This trend was quickly reflected in Nvidia's financial reports: in 2021, data center revenue increased by 124% year-on-year, and surpassed gaming in the first quarter of the following year to become a new revenue pillar.</p><p>While Nvidia's financial results showed impressive growth, two new narratives brought by it have also whetted the appetite of the secondary market.</p><p>The first to be affected was metaverse, one of the biggest trends of the year.</p><p>At the end of 2021, Jensen Huang showcased a new generation of tool software, Omniverse, calling it \"metaverse for engineers\". In Nvidia's vision of the future, everything in the real universe can be installed in the virtual world using Omniverse and GPU computing power, providing people with a key to metaverse. On the day of the release, Nvidia's stock price hit a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b14b53638f1068c41b8107020948235\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Another new narrative comes from ARM: In 2021, Nvidia was steadily moving forward with its acquisition of ARM from Japan's SoftBank.</p><p>ARM is a provider of technology patents in the field of mobile chips, and over 90% of smartphones use the ARM architecture. Once the acquisition is completed, Jensen Huang will have the opportunity to unify the PC and mobile markets, leaving only the legend of Nvidia in the market.</p><p>Everything seems to be moving towards<b>A master of computing power, with boundless magic.</b>Heading in that direction.</p><p><b>04. Mercury Retrograde: Has the superpower of computing power disappeared?</b></p><p>Computing power is power, and computing power determines the capabilities of AI. After more than a decade, not only Nvidia's followers have understood this, but the US government has also understood it:</p><p>In this quarter alone, Nvidia's sales of these two chips exported to China reached $400 million. It's worth noting that Nvidia's total revenue in the most recent fiscal quarter was only $6.7 billion, and it certainly doesn't want to lose the Chinese market.</p><p><b>But Nvidia's Mercury retrograde is far more than that.</b></p><p>At the beginning of this year, before Nvidia's dream of dominating the market had even begun, its acquisition of ARM faced a joint attack from governments around the world and global tech giants.</p><p>First, in 2021, four tech giants—Qualcomm, Microsoft, Intel, and Amazon—formed an \"anti-Nvidia alliance\" to jointly provide monopoly evidence to regulatory agencies in various countries in an attempt to block the acquisition.</p><p>Later, when Jensen Huang submitted acquisition applications to various countries, the reaction of global regulators was exactly the same—delay. The EU gave the most bizarre reason: because of the summer vacation.</p><p>On February 8, 2022, Nvidia finally received responses from regulatory agencies in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. Unfortunately, the answer was a refusal, citing concerns about potential serious monopolies in the global semiconductor industry, at which point ARM's neutrality would be completely lost.</p><p>For Huang Renxun<b>The failed ARM acquisition was just the beginning; soon after, the graphics card speculation market also collapsed.</b>。</p><p>In March 2021, CCTV sent reporters to go undercover in the digital market and expose the path to sudden wealth of unscrupulous graphics card merchants. But when I revisited the same place a year later, I was greeted by a completely opposite scene. Upon meeting the undercover reporter, the merchants in Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen, could not hide their grief, saying frankly that they had taken the deal at a high price, and now they are losing three to four thousand yuan for every graphics card they sell. At its most extreme, graphics cards dropped by 1,000 yuan a month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302a2d8cf0eeb0cd244cef3ed5f58083\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In August of this year, the RTX 30 series graphics cards, which were previously difficult to find, have successfully fallen below their issue price, and the price of second-hand graphics cards on eBay has generally been halved.</p><p>Even so, there are still many voices calling for \"not to take over\" – there is still room for prices to bottom further. While the party members were shouting slogans like \"If you don't buy it, I won't buy it, graphics cards will be reduced by 200 yuan tomorrow,\" they were also calculating when the unscrupulous merchants who hoarded goods at high prices last year would go up to the rooftop to perform a \"flying performance.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42454d54a829cc393282f8a8629a717a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In just one year, the demand for graphics cards has shrunk sharply. Graphics cards, which used to see both sales and price increases, have suddenly become sluggish, becoming the culprit behind Nvidia's poor performance. In the second quarter, revenue from the gaming business (graphics cards) was only around $6.7 billion, a decrease of more than 30% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Affected by inventory issues, Nvidia's gross profit margin also fell to 43.7%, far lower than the previously predicted 65.1%.</p><p>In just one year, the GPU computing power myth has suddenly lost its magic?</p><p><b>05. A grain of dust from the times falls on Nvidia's head.</b></p><p>But unlike Nvidia's past failures, Jensen Huang didn't do anything wrong this time; times have just changed.</p><p>According to a statistic compiled by market research firm IC Insights, since the 1990s, the rise and fall of the semiconductor industry has been almost closely tied to the trend of global GDP.</p><p>The underlying logic is not difficult to understand.<b>Only when people's wallets are getting fuller every day will they care whether the NVIDIA 3090TI or the AMD 6950XT is faster.</b>Only gamers would upgrade to a new computer for a better experience, crypto miners would firmly believe that \"computing power is wealth\" and frantically hoard graphics cards, and even scholars would have sufficient budgets to build data centers for research. Multiple waves alternated, and everyone together pushed computing power to a pedestal.</p><p>However, when the pandemic arrived along with inflation and rate hike, we saw that during the second-quarter earnings conference, Nvidia CFO Kress blamed the collapse on otaku – a sudden slowdown in demand for gaming products. But the other half of the sentence he didn't explicitly say was about the world he couldn't return to:</p><p>Regarding the rights that come with computing power. The cryptocurrency crash led to a large number of miners announcing their \"surrender\" and suspending mining starting June 7 due to a sharp drop in income. In 2022, at its peak, even Bitcoin fell by two-thirds in six months, and miners' computing power expenditures could no longer cover the gains in the coin price.</p><p>As for the rosy vision of computing power, although in the long run, the expansion of computing power will never end; However, in the short term, Nvidia will face slower growth from global internet giants, as well as declining PC shipments for many years. The sudden ban on US data center exports has left Nvidia with a lot to say.</p><p>What Nvidia is left with is a world that has temporarily halted growth and a world that has begun to deglobalize.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1585097861883","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A grain of dust on Nvidia's head</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA grain of dust on Nvidia's head\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川研究所</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-03 08:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>At the recently opened World Artificial Intelligence Conference, no one cared whether Musk would make a surprising statement this year or whether the BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) giants would reunite and battle it out. All the whispering audience members were concerned about one thing—<b>Are Nvidia's A100 and H100 graphics cards really going to be discontinued?</b>？</p><p><b>If Nvidia and AMD's GPU supplies are cut off, it would be tantamount to fundamentally undermining the development of the artificial intelligence industry.</b>—Every true AI research institution has the A100 and H100.</p><p><b>Nvidia has had a tough time in the past year.</b>In the second quarter of 2022, Nvidia delivered a surprising financial report, with revenue declining by 19% quarter-on-quarter. The gaming business, which supports the main revenue, declined by 44% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year.</p><p>Nvidia's largest business, gaming, collapsed, and its second largest business, data centers, suffered a fundamental blow from the United States, causing its stock price to continue to plummet. Compared to its peak at the end of last year, Nvidia's stock price has now halved, leaving its market capitalization at only $377.4 billion.</p><p>Looking back a year ago, the story of Nvidia was a different narrative:</p><p>In April 2021, Nvidia held a \"metaverse launch event\". Halfway through his speech, CEO Jensen Huang was secretly replaced by a digital human, almost unnoticed. Three months later, the 14-second \"change of scenery\" was made public, and Nvidia successfully earned the title of \"metaverse giant\".</p><p>Without a doubt, in the technology industry, \"metaverse\" was the three most discussed words that year. Taking advantage of the boom, Nvidia's stock price soared. In November, Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed $800 billion, making it the world's most valuable semiconductor company.</p><p>As the infrastructure of metaverse, the computing power support of the AI boom, and the core productivity of cryptocurrency miners, Nvidia's performance this year was also outstanding: total revenue was $26.914 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04aac5b05b0637eff403d850e750a843\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>14 seconds that are hard to distinguish between real and fake</p><p><b>What exactly happened to Nvidia in less than a year?</b></p><p><b>01. Rise: Computing power reverses life and death</b></p><p>To understand Nvidia's current situation, we need to start with the relationship between Nvidia and computing power.</p><p>In Silicon Valley, few entrepreneurs are as stubborn as Nvidia founder Jensen Huang, and his beliefs are simple:<b>Computing power is power</b>。</p><p>With this belief in mind, in 2010, NVIDIA released a new generation of graphics cards with explosive performance and explosive heat generation – the GTX480. Some people have conducted tests and found that the operating temperature of a GTX 480 at full power would often soar to 60 or 70 degrees Celsius, and if you weren't careful, it would take other components with it to the underworld.</p><p>So what? Jensen Huang said, \"I want to think that the greater the computing power, the better.\"</p><p>A year later, Nvidia released its latest graphics card, the GTX590. Not long after a foreign media outlet ran the GTX590 at its maximum power, a wisp of smoke rose from the circuit board, and the nickname \"nuclear bomb\" for NVIDIA graphics cards quickly spread.</p><p>These are just appetizers. When Nvidia released its successor, the GTX 690, netizens angry at its lack of competition directly added it to the encyclopedia entry for \"aircraft carrier killer\". After watching it, the Gansu TV host believed it to be true and wrote it into the oral transcript of the military program:</p><p>“<b>In particular, the improved model equipped with a GTX690 graphics card can destroy an aircraft carrier battle group with a single shot!</b>”</p><p>After the program aired, Silicon Valley madman Jensen Huang was once again crowned a \"two-bomb pioneer\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac73479b1566947e38e4854795412516\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It's a lie that massive computing power destroyed an aircraft carrier cluster, but Nvidia's dream of blowing up its mobile devices is real:</p><p>In 2011, with the decline of traditional PCs and the rise of smartphones, the trend of becoming a new generation of super terminals became increasingly clear: Nvidia, eager to make a name for itself in the smartphone field, launched the world's first quad-core processor, Tegra 3, which offered three times the performance of its predecessor.</p><p>The publicity is wonderful, isn't it? HTC, eager to reverse the decline in its smartphone business, believed it and chose to put a stop to Nvidia's dream: it aggressively used Tegra 3 in its latest flagship phone.</p><p>As a result, the emaciated camel became a feverish camel. The severe overheating problem caused by Tegra 3's excessive computing power accumulation became the final straw that brought HTC's smartphone recovery to a standstill, temporarily bringing Nvidia's journey to a close.</p><p>Jensen Huang's obsession with computing power led Nvidia into a dead end: graphics card combustion and the failure of the smartphone wave once caused Nvidia's stock price to drop by nearly half.</p><p><b>02. Reversal: When computing power truly becomes power</b></p><p>But both failure and success require computing power. At a critical juncture, Jensen Huang's belief that \"computing power will change the world\" has unexpectedly been corroborated in the field of AI.</p><p>Before 2012, AI experienced two waves, both of which were unsustainable due to objective constraints. Simply put, the first limitation is insufficient computing power, while the second is excessive cost.</p><p>Previously, AI recognition relied heavily on the CPU.</p><p>The CPU is suitable for complex general-purpose serial tasks and has up to 16 powerful ALUs (arithmetic logic units) built in. To translate, this is equivalent to a college student who can do calculus, who is smart but inefficient. In 2010, AI pioneer Andrew Ng had to spend 16,000 CPUs to get an AI program to recognize a cat, which was equivalent to forty or fifty internet cafes running at full capacity at the same time, costing about $1 million.</p><p>GPUs are suitable for simple and specific parallel tasks. They have thousands of simple ALUs built in, which is roughly equivalent to hundreds of elementary school students who can only do addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. Their brains are a bit lacking, but they win because of their high efficiency.</p><p>So to summarize, handling complex logical tasks and acting as a commander requires a dedicated CPU. However, GPUs are most suitable for simple, repetitive tasks that involve heavy computing power accumulation.</p><p>Where is it necessary to brutally accumulate computing power? In the past, the only recognized application scenarios for GPUs were games. But Jensen Huang believes that computing power can change the world: in order to better utilize GPU computing power, NVIDIA also launched a software tool called CUDA to lower the barrier to GPU programming, and invested 6 years regardless of cost.</p><p>This finally made AI scholars realize the power of GPU computing power.</p><p>For scenarios such as AI deep learning, \"100 elementary school student brains\" are sufficient—which means that high-performance GPUs are clearly more suitable. After Andrew Ng replaced his original AI program with a GPU, he was surprised to find that only 12 were needed.</p><p>This major discovery, combined with software breakthroughs, has ignited the third wave of AI development globally and propelled NVIDIA, which also possesses an AI software and hardware ecosystem, to the pinnacle: today, Amazon, the world's largest public cloud, and the AI research of BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) all rely heavily on the technical support of NVIDIA GPUs.</p><p><b>Wherever there is AI, everyone mentions Nvidia.</b>。 Just as Jensen Huang firmly believed, computing power has truly changed the world this time.</p><p>Coincidentally, cryptocurrencies that emerged around the same time also relied heavily on GPU computing power. With the support of numerous trends, graphics cards have been in short supply for many years, and \"domineering CEO\" Jensen Huang has become the veritable \"godfather of graphics cards\". The \"believers\" of the graphics card forum once recorded these glorious deeds in the form of the Records of the Grand Historian, and commented at the end:</p><p>\"First came the benevolent, then came the heavens; with a graphics card in hand, he can destroy immortals.\"</p><p><b>03. Coronation: GPU Devours Everything</b></p><p>At the 2019 GTC conference, Jensen Huang once again publicly mentioned his belief in computing power: \"Even if Moore's Law comes to an end, GPUs will be omnipotent.\" Finally, in 2021, his belief was widely recognized in the secondary market. Investment giants like Sister Wood have increased their investments one after another, and the secondary market has been soaring, with its market value tripling in a year.</p><p>This mainly stems from two growths and two entirely new narratives.</p><p>The growth came from two main businesses: gaming and data centers.</p><p>Due to the extended stay-at-home time caused by the pandemic, the demand for games has increased. According to Newzoo, the global gaming market grew by 1.4% in 2021. To run AAA games on PC, a discrete graphics card is an essential tool. Currently, there are almost only two options: Nvidia and AMD. Nvidia has an absolute advantage in market share - in the third quarter of the same year, Nvidia captured 83% of the market.</p><p>However, besides gamers, there is an even larger group rushing to buy gaming graphics cards.</p><p>In 2021, the cryptocurrency market ushered in a new bull market: Bitcoin more than doubled, Ethereum quadrupled, and LUNA, which later caused an earthquake in the cryptocurrency world, rose more than 80 times. The market boom has given rise to a large number of \"crypto miners\". Mining is a means of producing cryptocurrency, relying on powerful GPU computing power. Mining machines made from top-of-the-line gaming graphics cards have become veritable \"gold mining shovels,\" and computing power has become synonymous with \"wealth.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5532287cd6f926f8872e91441dd9483a\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bitcoin surges</p><p>The resulting surge in demand led to a rise in both the volume and price of NVIDIA graphics cards, and the gaming business also took off, generating $3.2 billion in revenue in the third quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 42%.</p><p>At the same time, the global data center industry also ushered in a spring: its scale reached US$76.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, and the growth rate is expected to remain above 10% in the coming years. [5] Data centers are a product of the AI development wave, which means that Nvidia, which has both CUDA and GPUs, has once again won big. Of the world's top 500 supercomputers, 342 are serviced by Nvidia.</p><p>This trend was quickly reflected in Nvidia's financial reports: in 2021, data center revenue increased by 124% year-on-year, and surpassed gaming in the first quarter of the following year to become a new revenue pillar.</p><p>While Nvidia's financial results showed impressive growth, two new narratives brought by it have also whetted the appetite of the secondary market.</p><p>The first to be affected was metaverse, one of the biggest trends of the year.</p><p>At the end of 2021, Jensen Huang showcased a new generation of tool software, Omniverse, calling it \"metaverse for engineers\". In Nvidia's vision of the future, everything in the real universe can be installed in the virtual world using Omniverse and GPU computing power, providing people with a key to metaverse. On the day of the release, Nvidia's stock price hit a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b14b53638f1068c41b8107020948235\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Another new narrative comes from ARM: In 2021, Nvidia was steadily moving forward with its acquisition of ARM from Japan's SoftBank.</p><p>ARM is a provider of technology patents in the field of mobile chips, and over 90% of smartphones use the ARM architecture. Once the acquisition is completed, Jensen Huang will have the opportunity to unify the PC and mobile markets, leaving only the legend of Nvidia in the market.</p><p>Everything seems to be moving towards<b>A master of computing power, with boundless magic.</b>Heading in that direction.</p><p><b>04. Mercury Retrograde: Has the superpower of computing power disappeared?</b></p><p>Computing power is power, and computing power determines the capabilities of AI. After more than a decade, not only Nvidia's followers have understood this, but the US government has also understood it:</p><p>In this quarter alone, Nvidia's sales of these two chips exported to China reached $400 million. It's worth noting that Nvidia's total revenue in the most recent fiscal quarter was only $6.7 billion, and it certainly doesn't want to lose the Chinese market.</p><p><b>But Nvidia's Mercury retrograde is far more than that.</b></p><p>At the beginning of this year, before Nvidia's dream of dominating the market had even begun, its acquisition of ARM faced a joint attack from governments around the world and global tech giants.</p><p>First, in 2021, four tech giants—Qualcomm, Microsoft, Intel, and Amazon—formed an \"anti-Nvidia alliance\" to jointly provide monopoly evidence to regulatory agencies in various countries in an attempt to block the acquisition.</p><p>Later, when Jensen Huang submitted acquisition applications to various countries, the reaction of global regulators was exactly the same—delay. The EU gave the most bizarre reason: because of the summer vacation.</p><p>On February 8, 2022, Nvidia finally received responses from regulatory agencies in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. Unfortunately, the answer was a refusal, citing concerns about potential serious monopolies in the global semiconductor industry, at which point ARM's neutrality would be completely lost.</p><p>For Huang Renxun<b>The failed ARM acquisition was just the beginning; soon after, the graphics card speculation market also collapsed.</b>。</p><p>In March 2021, CCTV sent reporters to go undercover in the digital market and expose the path to sudden wealth of unscrupulous graphics card merchants. But when I revisited the same place a year later, I was greeted by a completely opposite scene. Upon meeting the undercover reporter, the merchants in Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen, could not hide their grief, saying frankly that they had taken the deal at a high price, and now they are losing three to four thousand yuan for every graphics card they sell. At its most extreme, graphics cards dropped by 1,000 yuan a month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302a2d8cf0eeb0cd244cef3ed5f58083\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In August of this year, the RTX 30 series graphics cards, which were previously difficult to find, have successfully fallen below their issue price, and the price of second-hand graphics cards on eBay has generally been halved.</p><p>Even so, there are still many voices calling for \"not to take over\" – there is still room for prices to bottom further. While the party members were shouting slogans like \"If you don't buy it, I won't buy it, graphics cards will be reduced by 200 yuan tomorrow,\" they were also calculating when the unscrupulous merchants who hoarded goods at high prices last year would go up to the rooftop to perform a \"flying performance.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42454d54a829cc393282f8a8629a717a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In just one year, the demand for graphics cards has shrunk sharply. Graphics cards, which used to see both sales and price increases, have suddenly become sluggish, becoming the culprit behind Nvidia's poor performance. In the second quarter, revenue from the gaming business (graphics cards) was only around $6.7 billion, a decrease of more than 30% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Affected by inventory issues, Nvidia's gross profit margin also fell to 43.7%, far lower than the previously predicted 65.1%.</p><p>In just one year, the GPU computing power myth has suddenly lost its magic?</p><p><b>05. A grain of dust from the times falls on Nvidia's head.</b></p><p>But unlike Nvidia's past failures, Jensen Huang didn't do anything wrong this time; times have just changed.</p><p>According to a statistic compiled by market research firm IC Insights, since the 1990s, the rise and fall of the semiconductor industry has been almost closely tied to the trend of global GDP.</p><p>The underlying logic is not difficult to understand.<b>Only when people's wallets are getting fuller every day will they care whether the NVIDIA 3090TI or the AMD 6950XT is faster.</b>Only gamers would upgrade to a new computer for a better experience, crypto miners would firmly believe that \"computing power is wealth\" and frantically hoard graphics cards, and even scholars would have sufficient budgets to build data centers for research. Multiple waves alternated, and everyone together pushed computing power to a pedestal.</p><p>However, when the pandemic arrived along with inflation and rate hike, we saw that during the second-quarter earnings conference, Nvidia CFO Kress blamed the collapse on otaku – a sudden slowdown in demand for gaming products. But the other half of the sentence he didn't explicitly say was about the world he couldn't return to:</p><p>Regarding the rights that come with computing power. The cryptocurrency crash led to a large number of miners announcing their \"surrender\" and suspending mining starting June 7 due to a sharp drop in income. In 2022, at its peak, even Bitcoin fell by two-thirds in six months, and miners' computing power expenditures could no longer cover the gains in the coin price.</p><p>As for the rosy vision of computing power, although in the long run, the expansion of computing power will never end; However, in the short term, Nvidia will face slower growth from global internet giants, as well as declining PC shipments for many years. The sudden ban on US data center exports has left Nvidia with a lot to say.</p><p>What Nvidia is left with is a world that has temporarily halted growth and a world that has begun to deglobalize.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IBQCC7No2YTvi5ArfwVg2Q\">远川研究所</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IBQCC7No2YTvi5ArfwVg2Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101174405","content_text":"刚刚开幕的世界人工智能大会上，已经没有人关心今年到底马斯克会语出惊人，还是会BAT三巨头重聚斗法，所有交头接耳的观众就关心一件事——英伟达的A100、H100显卡，真的要断供了吗？一旦英伟达和AMD的GPU被断供，无异于对人工智能产业发展的釜底抽薪——任何一个真正的AI研究机构，都有A100与H100的身影。最近一年里，英伟达的日子并不好过，2022年二季度，英伟达交出一份令人大跌眼镜的财报，营收环比下滑了19%。支撑起主要营收的游戏业务，更是环比下降44%，同比下降33%。第一大业务游戏暴雷，第二大业务数据中心遭遇美国釜底抽薪，英伟达的股价也持续探底。相比于去年年底的高点，英伟达的股价如今已腰斩近一半，市值仅剩3774亿美金。而回顾一年前，关于英伟达的故事，还是另一套叙事：2021年4月，英伟达召开了一场“元宇宙发布会”。演讲到一半，CEO黄仁勋被偷偷替换成了数字人，几乎无人察觉。三个月后14秒的“偷天换日”被公之于众，英伟达成功加封“元宇宙巨头”。毫无疑问，科技产业中，“元宇宙”是这一年被讨论最多的三个字。趁着风口，英伟达股价一路飘红。11月，英伟达市值突破8000亿美元，一跃成为全球市值最高的半导体企业。作为元宇宙的基建、AI风口的算力支撑、虚拟币矿工的核心生产力，这一年，英伟达的业绩同样亮眼：总营收为269.14亿美元，同比增长61%。真假难辨的14秒一年不到的时间，关于英伟达，到底发生了什么？01、崛起：算力逆转生死要读懂英伟达的当下，还要从英伟达与算力的关系说起。在硅谷，很少有企业家能固执到英伟达创始人黄仁勋这般地步，而他的信仰很简单：算力就是权力。在这样的信念之下，2010年，英伟达发布了一款拥有爆炸级性能，同时也拥有爆炸级发热的新一代显卡——GTX480。有人做过测试，马力全开的GTX480，工作温度动辄飙升到六、七十度，一不小心，就带着其它元器件一同共赴黄泉。这又如何?黄仁勋“我要我觉得”，算力就是越大越好。一年后，英伟达发布最新显卡GTX590。一家国外媒体才将GTX590最大功率运行不久，一道青烟就从电路板上袅袅冒出，英伟达显卡“核弹”的称谓，自此不胫而走。这些只是前菜。当英伟达端出后继款GTX690时，怒其不争的网友直接将其加入到“航母杀手”的百科词条。甘肃卫视的主持人看完后信以为真，将其写到了军事节目的口播稿中：“特别是搭载GTX690核显卡的改进型号，一发即可摧毁一个航母战斗群！”节目播出后，硅谷狂人黄仁勋，再次被加冕“两弹元勋”桂冠。超大算力炸毁航母集群是假的，但是炸飞英伟达的移动端梦想是真的：2011年，传统PC式微，智能机崛起，成为新一代超级终端的趋势已经逐渐明朗：急于在智能机领域大展身手的英伟达推出了全球首个四核处理器Tegra 3，相比前代性能提升了3倍。宣传很美好对不对？急于逆转智能手机业务颓势的HTC信了，选择为英伟达的梦想窒息一把：在最新的旗舰机中，激进地用上了Tegra 3。结果瘦死的骆驼，变成了发烧的骆驼。Tegra 3暴力堆砌算力换来的严重发热问题，成了压死HTC智能机复苏的最后一根稻草，英伟达的逐梦移动端之旅，也自此暂时画上了句号。黄仁勋对算力的偏执，把当时的英伟达带入了死胡同：显卡自燃与败走智能手机浪潮，一度让英伟达的股价跌去近一半。02、逆转：当算力真正成为权力但败也算力，成也算力。绝境关头，黄仁勋“算力改变世界”的信仰，意外在AI领域得到了佐证。2012年之前，AI曾经历过两轮浪潮，两次都因为客观条件制约而难以为继。简单来说，第一次的限制条件是算力不足，第二次则是成本过高。因为此前AI识别多仰赖CPU。CPU适合复杂的通用串行任务，内置最多16个强力ALU（算术逻辑单元），翻译一下，这相当于一个能做微积分的大学生，脑子好但效率偏低。2010年，AI先驱吴恩达为了让AI程序识别出一只猫，不得不花费了16000个CPU处理器，相当于四五十个网吧同时火力全开，花费成本大约100万美元。而GPU适合简单特定的并行任务，内置数千个简单ALU，约等于数百个只能做加减乘除的小学生，脑子差了点，但赢在效率高。所以总结一下就是，处理复杂的逻辑任务，担任指挥官的活儿，得CPU专属；但做简单重复、暴力堆砌算力的事情，GPU最合适不过。哪里需要暴力堆砌算力？过去，GPU公认的应用场景仅有游戏。但黄仁勋的信仰可是算力能改变世界：为了让GPU算力被更好的发挥，英伟达还推出了一款名为CUDA的工具软件，借此降低GPU编程门槛，并不计成本投入了6年。这让AI学者们最终意识到了GPU算力的强大。对AI深度学习等场景而言，“100个小学生大脑”已经够用——这意味着高算力的GPU明显更合适。吴恩达将当年的AI程序换成GPU后，惊讶地发现只需要12个。这一重大发现，结合软件突破，引爆了全球第三次AI发展浪潮，也把同时拥有AI软硬件生态的英伟达，彻底推向山巅：今天全球最大的亚马逊公有云、BAT的AI研究，底层都离不开英伟达GPU的技术支持。凡有AI处，无人不提英伟达。正如黄仁勋所坚信的那般，这回算力真的改变了世界。巧合的是，同时期兴起的加密货币同样高度依赖GPU算力。诸多风口加持之下，显卡常年“一卡难求”，“霸总”黄仁勋成为名副其实的“显卡教父”。显卡吧的“信众”们曾用《史记》的形式记录下这些光辉事迹，并在最后评价道：“先有仁勋后有天，显卡在手虐神仙。”03、加冕：GPU吞噬一切2019年的GTC大会上，黄仁勋又一次公开提及了他对算力的信仰：“就算摩尔定律走向终结，GPU也将无所不能。”终于在2021年，他的信仰得到了二级市场的普遍认可。木头姐等投资大牛先后加码，二级市场一路高歌猛进，市值一年翻3倍。这背后主要源自两个增长和两个全新叙事。增长来自两大主营业务，即游戏与数据中心。由于疫情导致的居家时间延长，游戏需求增加。据Newzoo的统计，2021年全球游戏市场增长了1.4%。如需运行PC端的3A级游戏，独立显卡是必备工具，当下几乎只有英伟达和AMD两个选择，其中英伟达在市占率上有着绝对优势——同年第三季度英伟达吃下了83%的市场。不过，游戏宅之外，还有一个更庞大的群体在抢购游戏显卡。2021年，加密货币市场迎来新一轮牛市：比特币涨了2倍多，以太坊4倍，而后来引发币圈地震的LUNA涨了超80倍。市场繁荣催生了大量“加密矿工”。挖矿是产出加密货币的手段，仰赖强大的GPU算力。由顶配游戏显卡制成的矿机，成为了名副其实的“淘金铲”，算力也成了“财富”的代名词。比特币暴涨由此带来的需求暴增，导致英伟达显卡量价齐升，游戏业务也顺势起飞，在2021年三季度创造了32亿美元的营收，以及42%的同比增长。同一时间，全球数据中心行业也迎来了春天：规模达到了765.6亿美元，同比增长13.5%，且未来数年增速仍将保持在10%以上。[5]数据中心是AI发展浪潮的产物，这意味着同时坐拥CUDA和GPU的英伟达又一次赢麻了。全球Top500的超级计算机中，用英伟达服务的就有342台。这一趋势也很快反映到英伟达财报中：2021年，数据中心营收同比增长了124%，并于次年第一季度超越游戏，成为新的营收支柱。财报业绩涨势喜人的同时，英伟达带来的两个新叙事，也让二级市场吊足了胃口。首当其冲的，便是当年最大的风口之一——元宇宙。2021年底，黄仁勋展示了新一代工具软件Omniverse，称其为“工程师的元宇宙”。在英伟达设想的未来中，凡是真实宇宙有的东西，都能借助Omniverse和GPU算力，装进虚拟世界，给人们提供了一把通往元宇宙的钥匙。发布当天，英伟达股价迎来历史新高。另一个新叙事则来自ARM：2021年，英伟达正稳步推进从日本软银手中收购ARM相关事宜。ARM是移动芯片领域的技术专利提供商，超九成智能手机都使用了ARM架构。一旦完成收购，黄仁勋有机会一统PC和移动市场，江湖从此将仅剩英伟达的传说。一切似乎都在朝着算力老仙，法力无边的方向进发。04、水逆：算力的超能力消失了吗？算力就是权力，算力决定AI的能力，经过十多年，不仅英伟达的信众明白了，美国政府也明白了：仅仅这个季度，英伟达向中国出口的这两款芯片的销售额，就已经达到4亿美元。要知道，最近一个财季，英伟达总营收仅有67亿美元，他一定不想失去中国市场。但英伟达的水逆，绝不仅仅如此。今年年初，一统江湖的美梦尚未开启，英伟达的ARM收购之路，就遭受到了来自各国政府以及全球科技巨头的联合狙击：先是2021年，高通、微软、英特尔、亚马逊四家科技巨头结成“反英伟达同盟”，共同向各国监管机构提供垄断证据，试图阻止收购案。再后来，黄仁勋给各个国家递交收购申请时，全球监管机构的反应如出一辙——拖。其中欧盟给出的理由最为奇葩：因为要放暑假。到了2022年2月8日，英伟达终于得到了美国、英国和欧盟三地监管机构的回复，可惜答案却是拒绝，理由是担忧全球半导体行业可能产生的严重垄断，届时，ARM的中立性将荡然无存。对黄仁勋来说，ARM收购失败只是个开始，不久后，显卡炒作市场也出现了崩塌。2021年3月，央视派出记者“卧底”数码市场，揭露了显卡奸商的暴富之路。可一年后故地重游，眼前却出现了一副截然相反的景象。见到暗访的记者，深圳华强北的商户难掩悲痛之情，直言在高价时接了盘，如今每卖一张显卡就要亏三四千元。最极端的时刻，显卡一个月跌1000元。今年8月，过去“一卡难求”的RTX30系显卡已成功破发，eBay上二手显卡的价格也普遍对半腰斩。即便如此，依旧有不少声音呼吁“别接盘”——价格仍有进一步探底的空间。等等党们一边高喊着“你不买我不买，显卡明天降二百”的口号，一边盘算着去年高价囤货的奸商何时走上天台表演“空中飞人”。仅仅一年时间，显卡需求急剧萎缩。过去量价齐升的显卡突然滞销，成为英伟达业绩暴雷的罪魁祸首。二季度游戏业务（显卡）的营收仅有67亿美元左右，同比、环比都下跌了超3成。受到库存问题影响，英伟达毛利率也跌至43.7%，远低于此前预测的65.1%。仅仅一年时间，GPU算力神话，突然失去了魔力？05、时代的一粒灰，落在英伟达的头上但和过去英伟达的失败不同，这一次黄仁勋并没有做错什么，只是时代变了。市场研究公司IC Insights统计过一份数据：从90年代开始，半导体产业的涨跌几乎和全球GDP走势高度绑定。背后的逻辑不难理解，只有当人们的腰包一天比一天鼓，才会在乎英伟达 3090TI和AMD 6950XT到底哪个更快，游戏宅才会为了更好的体验换台新电脑，加密矿工才坚信“算力即财富”疯狂囤入显卡，连学者都有充足的预算，搭建数据中心做研究，多股浪潮交替，所有人一同把算力推上了神坛。但是当疫情伴随着通胀与加息一同到来，我们看到的，则是二季度的业绩说明会上，英伟达首席财务官克雷斯将暴雷归咎于阿宅——游戏产品的需求突然放缓。但他没有明说的另外半句，则是那个已经回不去的世界：关于算力的带来的权利。加密货币的崩盘，使得6月7日开始，大批矿工因为收入暴跌，宣布“投降”暂停挖矿。2022年，最多时，就连比特币都在半年时间跌去三分之二，矿工的算力支出不再能覆盖币价的收益。而关于算力的美好想象，尽管长期来看，算力的扩张永无止境；然而短期内，英伟达要面对的则是全球范围内增长变慢的互联网巨头们，以及连续多年缩水的PC出货，突如其来的美国数据中心出口禁令更是让英伟达有苦说不出。留给英伟达的，是一个暂缓增长的世界，一个开始逆全球化的世界。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939251438,"gmtCreate":1662122649625,"gmtModify":1676537002565,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939251438","repostId":"1103083207","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103083207","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662019756,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103083207?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 16:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With the market weakening, which US stocks did asset management giants favor in the second quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103083207","media":"智通财经网","summary":"来看看这些“聪明钱”都买了什么。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhuang Lijia</p><p>Over the past two weeks, many asset management giants have released their second-quarter holdings reports (13F). This article will discuss the following<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Let's take a look at the second-quarter holdings reports of 12 asset management giants, including Bridgewater Associates, to see what these \"smart money\" bought.</p><p>1. As the market weakened, the market value of asset management giants' holdings generally shrank.</p><p>According to data released by various asset management giants, in addition to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>In addition, the total market value of holdings of other asset management giants all declined in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Among them, Tiger Global, known as a \"technology stock hunter,\" saw its total market value of holdings nearly halved in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. Other well-performing asset management giants include: Greenwoods Asset Management's total market value decreased by less than 4% month-on-month, and Bridgewater Associates' total market value decreased by less than 5% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad3d89fa9ff826b4410e58b5acf337b\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The shrinking market value of asset management giants' holdings is largely consistent with the overall market performance. Data shows that in the second quarter, the S&P 500 fell by 16.45%, while the Nasdaq fell by 22.44%.</p><p>2. Technology stocks remain favored</p><p>Despite the poor performance of US technology stocks in the second quarter, holdings reports from several asset management giants show that technology stocks remain their key holdings.</p><p>Technology stocks accounted for the largest proportion of BlackRock's holdings in the second quarter, at 22.35%. The top five holdings are all technology stocks, in that order.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>(MSFT.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>(GOOG.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>(NVDA.US) is BlackRock's sixth and tenth largest holdings, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f577b5e43aca056f22ac2f0ae24f4c7\" tg-width=\"1294\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple is also the largest holding of Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett, accounting for 42.20% of the portfolio. It is worth mentioning that Berkshire Hathaway also increased its holdings of Apple shares by approximately 3.8 million shares in the third quarter. At the same time, Apple is also Invesco Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Morgan Stanley's second-largest holding<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Its fourth largest holding.</p><p>Besides Apple, Microsoft has also attracted the attention of asset management giants. Microsoft is JPMorgan Chase's top holding, with its holdings increasing by 10% in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. Invesco, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley all consider Microsoft their largest holdings, with Morgan Stanley significantly increasing its holdings in Microsoft stock in the second quarter, increasing its holdings by 50% compared to the previous quarter. Goldman Sachs also increased its holdings in Microsoft by 13% in the second quarter, making Microsoft its third-largest holding.</p><p>Among the top five holdings of tech stock hunter Tiger Global in the second quarter, Microsoft and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>(META.US) ranked second and fifth, respectively. It is worth mentioning that Tiger Global's holdings in Meta Platforms rose from tenth place in the previous quarter to fifth, a significant increase of 15% compared to the previous quarter's holdings. In addition, Tiger Global has also built a position in Alphabet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53fedca5544b2bcd89d98b8d5233cf78\" tg-width=\"1335\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bridgewater Associates' top five buy targets also include...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MA\">Mastercard</a>The fund also built a long position in Amazon (AMZN.US) in the second quarter, following three technology stocks: Alphabet (MA.US), and Meta Platforms.</p><p>Although tech stocks generally suffered a heavy blow in the second quarter, the strong rebound in US stocks in July seems to prove the \"wise decision\" of asset management giants to increase their holdings in tech stocks. Taking Apple, which sits on the \"throne\" of technology stocks, as an example, Apple's stock price fell to a low of $128.86 during trading on June 16 amid poor overall market performance. However, on August 18, Apple's stock price rebounded by about 34% from its June low to above $174, which is less than 5% away from the historical high of about $182 reached by the stock in January of this year.</p><p>However, following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting, the \"head-on clash\" between technology stocks and US Treasury yields may intensify, potentially leading to huge losses for asset management companies that recently significantly increased their holdings in technology stocks. Analysts believe that technology stocks, which are sensitive to interest rates, may be sold off again in the future, as almost all signs indicate that Powell will maintain his hardline stance given the current high global prices of goods and services.</p><p>Soaring interest rates have increased the financing costs of technology companies. However, this is not a problem for cash-flow-rich tech companies like Apple and Microsoft. Tech stocks with strong fundamentals often have reliable profitability, healthy balance sheets, and the ability to navigate deflationary trends. However, for unprofitable technology companies that are constantly burning money in pursuit of rapid growth, the risks rise significantly.</p><p>3. Pharmaceutical, energy, and consumer stocks each have their own strengths.</p><p>In BlackRock's second-quarter holding report, judging from the changes in holding ratios, its top five buy targets included...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">united health</a>(UNH.US), Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>(MRK.US) and Pfizer (PFE.US) are four pharmaceutical stocks, while the other is an energy stock.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>(XOM.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91529edbcdf724d3ec71ea03549b662\" tg-width=\"396\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson and Johnson</a>Also Bridgewater Associates' second-largest holding, the fund also significantly increased its holdings in CVS Health (CVS.US) in the second quarter. Morgan Stanley also increased its holdings in United Health and Johnson & Johnson in the second quarter.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase also favors pharmaceutical stocks, with UnitedHealth, AbbVie (ABBV.US), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US) among its top ten holdings. UnitedHealth's holdings increased by 20% compared to the previous quarter, while AbbVie and Bristol-Myers Squibb's holdings also increased slightly compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c76e02855a9d2091d0fe277347886c\" tg-width=\"1335\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>They prefer Energy stocks, with four of their top five holdings being Energy stocks: Cheniere Energy (CQP.US), Energy Transfer (ET.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPLX\">MPLX LP</a>(MPLX.US) and Enterprise Products (EPD.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1670c57df8eeabe788af2f0a29a9ea34\" tg-width=\"1333\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Energy stocks that have attracted much market attention this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>(OXY.US) unsurprisingly became Berkshire Hathaway's top buying target in the second quarter. Berkshire Hathaway has significantly increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum this year and submitted an application to the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on July 11 to purchase more Occidental Petroleum shares. Currently, Berkshire Hathaway owns 188.5 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, representing a 20.2% stake, exceeding the 20% consolidation threshold.</p><p>Besides Occidental Petroleum, Berkshire Hathaway also significantly increased its stake in the second quarter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>(CVX.US) saw its holdings increase by 316% compared to the previous quarter, making it Berkshire Hathaway's fourth-largest holding. Some market analysts believe that Buffett has always favored traditional oil stocks, as traditional energy remains a long-term necessity. Especially after investment restrictions, leading companies are following a logic of increasing concentration, with positive financial data and overall valuation levels rising accordingly.</p><p>Consumer stocks have captured the hearts of Bridgewater Associates. Among Bridgewater's top ten holdings in the second quarter were as many as five consumer stocks: Procter & Gamble (PG.US), Coca-Cola (KO.US), PepsiCo (PEP.US), Costco (COST.US), and Walmart (WMT.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39a4d9339453ef1453aee421b14e2a5\" tg-width=\"1295\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With the market weakening, which US stocks did asset management giants favor in the second quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith the market weakening, which US stocks did asset management giants favor in the second quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-01 16:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhuang Lijia</p><p>Over the past two weeks, many asset management giants have released their second-quarter holdings reports (13F). This article will discuss the following<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Let's take a look at the second-quarter holdings reports of 12 asset management giants, including Bridgewater Associates, to see what these \"smart money\" bought.</p><p>1. As the market weakened, the market value of asset management giants' holdings generally shrank.</p><p>According to data released by various asset management giants, in addition to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>In addition, the total market value of holdings of other asset management giants all declined in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Among them, Tiger Global, known as a \"technology stock hunter,\" saw its total market value of holdings nearly halved in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. Other well-performing asset management giants include: Greenwoods Asset Management's total market value decreased by less than 4% month-on-month, and Bridgewater Associates' total market value decreased by less than 5% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad3d89fa9ff826b4410e58b5acf337b\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The shrinking market value of asset management giants' holdings is largely consistent with the overall market performance. Data shows that in the second quarter, the S&P 500 fell by 16.45%, while the Nasdaq fell by 22.44%.</p><p>2. Technology stocks remain favored</p><p>Despite the poor performance of US technology stocks in the second quarter, holdings reports from several asset management giants show that technology stocks remain their key holdings.</p><p>Technology stocks accounted for the largest proportion of BlackRock's holdings in the second quarter, at 22.35%. The top five holdings are all technology stocks, in that order.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>(MSFT.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>(GOOG.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>(NVDA.US) is BlackRock's sixth and tenth largest holdings, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f577b5e43aca056f22ac2f0ae24f4c7\" tg-width=\"1294\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple is also the largest holding of Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett, accounting for 42.20% of the portfolio. It is worth mentioning that Berkshire Hathaway also increased its holdings of Apple shares by approximately 3.8 million shares in the third quarter. At the same time, Apple is also Invesco Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Morgan Stanley's second-largest holding<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Its fourth largest holding.</p><p>Besides Apple, Microsoft has also attracted the attention of asset management giants. Microsoft is JPMorgan Chase's top holding, with its holdings increasing by 10% in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. Invesco, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley all consider Microsoft their largest holdings, with Morgan Stanley significantly increasing its holdings in Microsoft stock in the second quarter, increasing its holdings by 50% compared to the previous quarter. Goldman Sachs also increased its holdings in Microsoft by 13% in the second quarter, making Microsoft its third-largest holding.</p><p>Among the top five holdings of tech stock hunter Tiger Global in the second quarter, Microsoft and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>(META.US) ranked second and fifth, respectively. It is worth mentioning that Tiger Global's holdings in Meta Platforms rose from tenth place in the previous quarter to fifth, a significant increase of 15% compared to the previous quarter's holdings. In addition, Tiger Global has also built a position in Alphabet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53fedca5544b2bcd89d98b8d5233cf78\" tg-width=\"1335\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bridgewater Associates' top five buy targets also include...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MA\">Mastercard</a>The fund also built a long position in Amazon (AMZN.US) in the second quarter, following three technology stocks: Alphabet (MA.US), and Meta Platforms.</p><p>Although tech stocks generally suffered a heavy blow in the second quarter, the strong rebound in US stocks in July seems to prove the \"wise decision\" of asset management giants to increase their holdings in tech stocks. Taking Apple, which sits on the \"throne\" of technology stocks, as an example, Apple's stock price fell to a low of $128.86 during trading on June 16 amid poor overall market performance. However, on August 18, Apple's stock price rebounded by about 34% from its June low to above $174, which is less than 5% away from the historical high of about $182 reached by the stock in January of this year.</p><p>However, following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting, the \"head-on clash\" between technology stocks and US Treasury yields may intensify, potentially leading to huge losses for asset management companies that recently significantly increased their holdings in technology stocks. Analysts believe that technology stocks, which are sensitive to interest rates, may be sold off again in the future, as almost all signs indicate that Powell will maintain his hardline stance given the current high global prices of goods and services.</p><p>Soaring interest rates have increased the financing costs of technology companies. However, this is not a problem for cash-flow-rich tech companies like Apple and Microsoft. Tech stocks with strong fundamentals often have reliable profitability, healthy balance sheets, and the ability to navigate deflationary trends. However, for unprofitable technology companies that are constantly burning money in pursuit of rapid growth, the risks rise significantly.</p><p>3. Pharmaceutical, energy, and consumer stocks each have their own strengths.</p><p>In BlackRock's second-quarter holding report, judging from the changes in holding ratios, its top five buy targets included...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">united health</a>(UNH.US), Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck</a>(MRK.US) and Pfizer (PFE.US) are four pharmaceutical stocks, while the other is an energy stock.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>(XOM.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91529edbcdf724d3ec71ea03549b662\" tg-width=\"396\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson and Johnson</a>Also Bridgewater Associates' second-largest holding, the fund also significantly increased its holdings in CVS Health (CVS.US) in the second quarter. Morgan Stanley also increased its holdings in United Health and Johnson & Johnson in the second quarter.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase also favors pharmaceutical stocks, with UnitedHealth, AbbVie (ABBV.US), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US) among its top ten holdings. UnitedHealth's holdings increased by 20% compared to the previous quarter, while AbbVie and Bristol-Myers Squibb's holdings also increased slightly compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c76e02855a9d2091d0fe277347886c\" tg-width=\"1335\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>They prefer Energy stocks, with four of their top five holdings being Energy stocks: Cheniere Energy (CQP.US), Energy Transfer (ET.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPLX\">MPLX LP</a>(MPLX.US) and Enterprise Products (EPD.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1670c57df8eeabe788af2f0a29a9ea34\" tg-width=\"1333\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Energy stocks that have attracted much market attention this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>(OXY.US) unsurprisingly became Berkshire Hathaway's top buying target in the second quarter. Berkshire Hathaway has significantly increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum this year and submitted an application to the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on July 11 to purchase more Occidental Petroleum shares. Currently, Berkshire Hathaway owns 188.5 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, representing a 20.2% stake, exceeding the 20% consolidation threshold.</p><p>Besides Occidental Petroleum, Berkshire Hathaway also significantly increased its stake in the second quarter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>(CVX.US) saw its holdings increase by 316% compared to the previous quarter, making it Berkshire Hathaway's fourth-largest holding. Some market analysts believe that Buffett has always favored traditional oil stocks, as traditional energy remains a long-term necessity. Especially after investment restrictions, leading companies are following a logic of increasing concentration, with positive financial data and overall valuation levels rising accordingly.</p><p>Consumer stocks have captured the hearts of Bridgewater Associates. Among Bridgewater's top ten holdings in the second quarter were as many as five consumer stocks: Procter & Gamble (PG.US), Coca-Cola (KO.US), PepsiCo (PEP.US), Costco (COST.US), and Walmart (WMT.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39a4d9339453ef1453aee421b14e2a5\" tg-width=\"1295\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/785981.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/785981.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1103083207","content_text":"作者： 庄礼佳过去两周，许多资管巨头都公布了各自的第二季度持仓报告(13F)。本文将通过对包括伯克希尔哈撒韦、贝莱德、桥水基金等12家资管巨头的二季度持仓报告来看看这些“聪明钱”都买了什么。1、大盘走弱之下 资管巨头持仓市值普遍缩水从各家资管巨头公布的数据来看，除了摩根士丹利之外，其余资管巨头在二季度的持仓总市值均较一季度出现了下滑。其中，有着“科技股猎手”之称的老虎环球二季度持仓总市值环比接近“腰斩”。其余表现较好的资管巨头包括：景林资产持仓总市值环比下降不到4%，桥水基金持仓总市值环比下降不到5%。资管巨头们的持仓市值缩水与整体市场的表现基本一致。数据显示，在二季度，标普500指数下跌了16.45%，而纳斯达克指数则下跌了22.44%。2、科技股仍获青睐尽管美股科技股在二季度的走势并不好，但多家资管巨头的持仓报告显示，科技股仍是其重点持仓标的。全球最大资管贝莱德的二季度持仓中，科技股所占比例最高，为22.35%。前五大重仓股均为科技股，依次为苹果(AAPL.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、Alphabet(GOOGL.US)和谷歌(GOOG.US)，特斯拉(TSLA.US)与英伟达(NVDA.US)分别是贝莱德第六大、第十大重仓股。苹果同样是巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦的第一大重仓股，占投资组合比例高达42.20%。值得一提的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦还在第三季度增持了约380万股苹果股票。与此同时，苹果还是景顺集团、美国银行、高盛、摩根士丹利的第二大重仓股、摩根大通的第四大重仓股。除了苹果之外，微软同样获得资管巨头们的青睐。微软是摩根大通的头号重仓股，在二季度的持仓数量较上季度增加了10%。景顺集团、美国银行和摩根士丹利都将微软作为其第一大重仓股，其中摩根士丹利更是在二季度大幅增持了微软股票，较上季度持仓数量增加了50%。高盛也在二季度将微软的持仓数量增加了13%，使得微软成为其第三大重仓股。“科技股猎手”老虎环球的二季度持仓的前五大重仓股中，微软和Meta Platforms(META.US)分别位列第二和第五。值得一提的是，老虎环球对Meta Platforms的持仓比例从上季度排名第十升至第五，较上季度持仓数量大幅增持15%。此外，老虎环球还建仓了Alphabet。桥水基金的前五大买入标的中也包含万事达(MA.US)、Alphabet和Meta Platforms这三只科技股，该基金还在二季度建仓做多亚马逊(AMZN.US)。尽管科技股在二季度普遍遭遇重击，但美股在7月份的强势反弹似乎证明了资管巨头们加仓科技股的“英明决定”。以坐在科技股“王座”上的苹果为例，在大盘整体表现不佳的情况下，苹果股价在6月16日盘中跌至128.86美元的低点，但在8月18日时，苹果股价就较6月低点反弹约34%至174美元上方，距离该股在今年1月创下的约182美元的历史高点仅差不到5%的涨幅。然而，在美联储主席鲍威尔于杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上发表鹰派言论之后，科技股与美债收益率之间的“正面交锋”或将愈发激烈，这可能使得前不久大幅加仓科技股的资管公司们面临巨大亏损。分析人士认为，对利率水平敏感的科技类股票未来可能再度遭抛售，因为几乎所有迹象都表明，鉴于目前全球商品和服务价格仍居高不下，鲍威尔将坚持其强硬立场。不断飙升的利率增加了科技公司融资成本。不过，对于苹果和微软等现金流充裕的科技公司来说，这不是问题，基本面良好的科技股往往具有可靠的盈利能力、健康的资产负债表以及驾驭通缩趋势的能力。但对于那些不断烧钱追求快速增长的尚未盈利的科技公司来说，风险则大幅上行。3、医药类、能源类、日常消费类股各有千秋在贝莱德的二季度持仓报告中，从持仓比例变化来看，其前五大买入标的中就包括联合健康(UNH.US)、强生(JNJ.US)、默沙东(MRK.US)、辉瑞(PFE.US)四只医药类股，另外一只则是作为能源类股的埃克森美孚(XOM.US)。强生同样是桥水基金的第二大重仓股，该基金还在二季度大幅增持了CVS Health (CVS.US)。摩根士丹利在二季度也增持了联合健康和强生。摩根大通也偏好医药股，其前十大重仓股中就包含联合健康、艾伯维(ABBV.US)和百时美施贵宝(BMY.US)三只医药股，其中联合健康的持仓数量较上季度增加20%，艾伯维和百时美施贵宝的持仓数量也较上季度小幅增长。黑石更青睐能源股，其前五大重仓股中有四只是能源股，分别是Cheniere Energy(CQP.US)、Energy Transfer(ET.US)、MPLX LP(MPLX.US)以及Enterprise Products(EPD.US)。今年以来备受市场关注的能源股西方石油(OXY.US)不出意外地成为伯克希尔哈撒韦在二季度的第一大买入标的。伯克希尔哈撒韦在今年大幅增持了西方石油，并于7月11日向美国联邦能源管理委员会提交了购买更多西方石油股票的申请。目前，伯克希尔哈撒韦拥有1.885亿股西方石油股票，持股比例达到20.2%，超过了20%的并表门槛。除了西方石油以外，伯克希尔哈撒韦在二季度同样大幅增持了雪佛龙(CVX.US)，持仓数量较上季度增长316%，使得后者成为伯克希尔哈撒韦的第四大重仓股。有市场分析人士认为，巴菲特对传统石油股一直青睐有加，传统能源依旧是未来长期刚需，尤其是限制投资后，头部企业走集中度提升逻辑，财务数据向好，整体估值水位也随着提升。日常消费类股则俘获了桥水基金的“芳心”。桥水二季度持仓的前十大重仓股中有多达五只日常消费类股，分别是宝洁(PG.US)、可口可乐(KO.US)、百事可乐(PEP.US)、好市多(COST.US)和沃尔玛(WMT.US)。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939024204,"gmtCreate":1662029545612,"gmtModify":1676536628559,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939024204","repostId":"1188367124","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939024889,"gmtCreate":1662029534343,"gmtModify":1676536628551,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939024889","repostId":"2264251077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930883617,"gmtCreate":1661928836542,"gmtModify":1676536605810,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c28026b351cd650f55cc32175bda0dc6","width":"1242","height":"3008"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930883617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930880220,"gmtCreate":1661928489762,"gmtModify":1676536605757,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930880220","repostId":"1110193028","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110193028","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661907934,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110193028?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-31 09:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Biocytography-B has a 50% success rate in one lot; subscribing to 14 lots guarantees one lot.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110193028","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月31日，百奥赛图-B发布公告，公司全球发售2175.85万股股份，其中香港发售股份217.6万股，国际发售股份1958.25万股，另有15%超额配股权；发售价为每股发售股份25.22港元，每手买卖","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On August 31,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02315\">Biocyto-B</a>The company issued an announcement stating that it will offer 21.7585 million shares globally, including 2.176 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 19.5825 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option. The Offer Price is HK$25.22 per Offer Share with board lots of 500 Shares;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Are the Joint Sponsors; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 1 September 2022.</p><p><b>The relevant data compiled by Tiger Information is as follows:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe1fe1e76e82123d9604aa786444204\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"824\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>allocation results</b></p><p>Group A has 500 shares per lot, with a 50% success rate per lot. If you subscribe for 14 lots, you are guaranteed to win one lot.</p><p>Group B has 400 lots (200,000 shares) and is allocated 100 lots (50,000 shares).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a7b8874bfe77499a8c822eca293038\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"682\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91bc610c3945989c6040d6ea210986d\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Hong Kong Offer Shares have been slightly oversubscribed. A total of 3,524 valid applications were received for a total of 12,909,500 Hong Kong Offer Shares, representing approximately 5.93 times the total number of Hong Kong Offer Shares initially available for subscription under the Hong Kong Public Offering. The Offer Shares initially offered under the International Offering have been slightly oversubscribed, representing approximately 1.6 times the total number of Offer Shares initially available under the International Offering. Based on the offer price of HK$25.22 per share, and pursuant to the cornerstone investment agreement, cornerstone investors have subscribed for a total of 15.4785 million offer shares.</p><p>Based on the offer price of HK$25.22 per share, the company is estimated to receive net proceeds of approximately HK$471.1 million from the global offering (assuming the over-allotment option is not exercised). The company plans to use approximately 70% of the net proceeds to fund further clinical development of its core products; Approximately 15% will be used to fund antibody drug discovery and development under the Thousand Rats, Ten Thousand Antibodies Program; approximately 10% for pre-clinical and clinical development of other pipeline products; and approximately 5% will be used for working capital and other general corporate purposes. If the Over-allotment Option is exercised in full, the Company will receive additional net proceeds of approximately HK$79.4 million for the 3,263,500 additional H Shares to be issued and allotted as a result of the exercise of the Over-allotment Option.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biocytography-B has a 50% success rate in one lot; subscribing to 14 lots guarantees one lot.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiocytography-B has a 50% success rate in one lot; subscribing to 14 lots guarantees one lot.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-31 09:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On August 31,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02315\">Biocyto-B</a>The company issued an announcement stating that it will offer 21.7585 million shares globally, including 2.176 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 19.5825 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option. The Offer Price is HK$25.22 per Offer Share with board lots of 500 Shares;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Are the Joint Sponsors; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 1 September 2022.</p><p><b>The relevant data compiled by Tiger Information is as follows:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe1fe1e76e82123d9604aa786444204\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"824\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>allocation results</b></p><p>Group A has 500 shares per lot, with a 50% success rate per lot. If you subscribe for 14 lots, you are guaranteed to win one lot.</p><p>Group B has 400 lots (200,000 shares) and is allocated 100 lots (50,000 shares).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a7b8874bfe77499a8c822eca293038\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"682\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91bc610c3945989c6040d6ea210986d\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Hong Kong Offer Shares have been slightly oversubscribed. A total of 3,524 valid applications were received for a total of 12,909,500 Hong Kong Offer Shares, representing approximately 5.93 times the total number of Hong Kong Offer Shares initially available for subscription under the Hong Kong Public Offering. The Offer Shares initially offered under the International Offering have been slightly oversubscribed, representing approximately 1.6 times the total number of Offer Shares initially available under the International Offering. Based on the offer price of HK$25.22 per share, and pursuant to the cornerstone investment agreement, cornerstone investors have subscribed for a total of 15.4785 million offer shares.</p><p>Based on the offer price of HK$25.22 per share, the company is estimated to receive net proceeds of approximately HK$471.1 million from the global offering (assuming the over-allotment option is not exercised). The company plans to use approximately 70% of the net proceeds to fund further clinical development of its core products; Approximately 15% will be used to fund antibody drug discovery and development under the Thousand Rats, Ten Thousand Antibodies Program; approximately 10% for pre-clinical and clinical development of other pipeline products; and approximately 5% will be used for working capital and other general corporate purposes. If the Over-allotment Option is exercised in full, the Company will receive additional net proceeds of approximately HK$79.4 million for the 3,263,500 additional H Shares to be issued and allotted as a result of the exercise of the Over-allotment Option.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"02315":"百奥赛图-B"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110193028","content_text":"8月31日，百奥赛图-B发布公告，公司全球发售2175.85万股股份，其中香港发售股份217.6万股，国际发售股份1958.25万股，另有15%超额配股权；发售价为每股发售股份25.22港元，每手买卖单位500股；中金公司及高盛为联席保荐人；预期股份将于2022年9月1日于联交所主板挂牌上市。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下：分配结果甲组每手500股，一手中签率50%，申购14手稳中一手。乙组头为400手（200000股），获配100手（50000股）。香港发售股份已获轻微超额认购。合共接获3524份有效申请，认购合共1290.95万股香港发售股份，相当于香港公开发售项下初步可供认购香港发售股份总数的约5.93倍。国际发售项下初步提呈发售的发售股份已获轻微超额认购，相当于国际发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约1.6倍。按发售价每股25.22港元计算，且根据基石投资协议，基石投资者已认购合共1547.85万股发售股份。按发售价每股25.22港元计算，公司将自全球发售收取的所得款项净额估计约为4.711亿港元(假设超额配股权未获行使)。公司拟将所得款项净额约70%用于为核心产品的进一步临床研发提供资金；约15%用于根据千鼠万抗计划为抗体药物发现及开发提供资金；约10%用于其他管线产品的临床前及临床开发；及约5%将用作营运资金及其他一般公司用途。倘超额配股权获悉数行使，则公司将就因超额配股权获行使而将予发行及配发的326.35万股额外H股收取额外所得款项净额约7940万港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02315":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930880827,"gmtCreate":1661928470972,"gmtModify":1676536605756,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930880827","repostId":"2263425809","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997463066,"gmtCreate":1661836309857,"gmtModify":1676536588579,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997463066","repostId":"1175791610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997178516,"gmtCreate":1661772245338,"gmtModify":1676536575730,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997178516","repostId":"2263144240","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994790190,"gmtCreate":1661689023214,"gmtModify":1676536561298,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994790190","repostId":"1175369432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175369432","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661663001,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175369432?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 13:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Li Auto responds to L9 delivery delay: due to supply delay at Sichuan range extender factory","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175369432","media":"中新经纬","summary":"据悉，理想L9此前预计8月底开始交付。","content":"<p><div>Author: Niu Chaoge On the 28th, regarding the online rumors of a delay in the delivery of the Li Auto L9, Li Auto customer service personnel confirmed, \"Due to power shortages in Sichuan, Li Auto' range extender factory in Mianyang, Sichuan, has experienced supply delays, resulting in a delay in the delivery of the Li Auto L9.\" According to online information, Li Auto released a \"Li Auto L9 Delivery Delay Announcement\" on its official App. \"The delivery delay notice will only be sent to the car owner who placed the order; other users will not receive it,\" the customer service representative said. According to screenshots posted by netizens, for users whose Li Auto App shows delivery within August, delivery is expected to take place between August 30th and September...</p><p><a href=\"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"zxjw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto responds to L9 delivery delay: due to supply delay at Sichuan range extender factory</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto responds to L9 delivery delay: due to supply delay at Sichuan range extender factory\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中新经纬</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-28 13:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Author: Niu Chaoge On the 28th, regarding the online rumors of a delay in the delivery of the Li Auto L9, Li Auto customer service personnel confirmed, \"Due to power shortages in Sichuan, Li Auto' range extender factory in Mianyang, Sichuan, has experienced supply delays, resulting in a delay in the delivery of the Li Auto L9.\" According to online information, Li Auto released a \"Li Auto L9 Delivery Delay Announcement\" on its official App. \"The delivery delay notice will only be sent to the car owner who placed the order; other users will not receive it,\" the customer service representative said. According to screenshots posted by netizens, for users whose Li Auto App shows delivery within August, delivery is expected to take place between August 30th and September...</p><p><a href=\"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml\">中新经纬</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd0e1f3d1695da2f5dabecfbac4bc57","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","02015":"理想汽车-W"},"source_url":"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175369432","content_text":"作者：牛朝阁28日，针对网传理想L9延期交付一事，理想汽车客服人员给予了确认，“因四川地区电力紧张，理想汽车在四川绵阳的增程器工厂供应延迟，导致理想L9交付延期。”据网传信息显示，理想汽车在官方App中发布了“理想L9交付时间延期公告”。“延期交付的公告只会推送给下订单的车主，其他用户不会收到。”上述客服表示。根据网友晒出的截图，对于在理想汽车App内显示8月内交付的用户，预计将在8月30日至9月4日为用户进行交付，由于车辆延期导致用户9月才能交车的，官方将提供1000元油卡作为用户补偿。App内显示9月交付的用户，车辆则仍会在9月内完成交付。“具体的延期时间还需要车主和交付专家沟通。我也不是已下订单用户，也看不到公告。”上述客服表示。据悉，理想L9此前预计8月底开始交付。值得注意的是，在二季度财报会中，理想高层人员曾对三季度交付量给出了2.7万辆至2.9万辆的悲观预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02015":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994143350,"gmtCreate":1661581759572,"gmtModify":1676536546425,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994143350","repostId":"2262937641","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995770329,"gmtCreate":1661524641163,"gmtModify":1676536535069,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995770329","repostId":"1152393159","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152393159","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661522465,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152393159?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 22:01","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Powell's hawkish stance: The magnitude of the September rate hike depends on the overall data.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152393159","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月26日周五，在备受瞩目的美联储杰克逊霍尔年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示不会很快降息。鲍威尔称，9月加息规模取决于“整体”数据。7月份的较低通胀数据值得欢迎，但还不足以让央行相信通胀正在下降。美联储可","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, August 26, at the highly anticipated Jackson Hole meeting of the Federal Reserve, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that interest rates would not be cut anytime soon.</p><p>Powell said the size of the September rate hike depends on the \"overall\" data. The lower inflation data for July is welcome, but...<b>Not enough to convince the central bank that inflation is falling.</b>。 The Federal Reserve may require restrictive policies for some time. The long-term neutral expectation level of the benchmark overnight rate of 2.25%-2.50% is \"not a place for the Federal Reserve to stop or pause its actions.\"</p><p>Powell hinted<b>The determination to exchange slowing economic growth for cooling inflation.</b>He said that reducing inflation may require economic growth to remain below trend for some time. Restoring price stability will take time, which requires...<b>\"powerfully\"</b>Use the tools of the central bank. The lessons of history show that,<b>Don't relax policies \"too early\"</b>。</p><p>Powell pointed out that the labor market is particularly strong, but unbalanced; High inflation continues to spread. While the employment environment is likely to weaken, causing some pain for households—an unfortunate price to pay for lowering inflation—the inability to restore price stability will mean even greater pain.</p><p>Regarding the economy, Powell stated that the economy continues to demonstrate strong fundamental momentum. The U.S. economy has slowed significantly, but the potential momentum is strong. To some extent,<b>As policy stances tighten further, it would be appropriate to slow down the pace of rate hike.</b></p><p>Affected by this news, US stocks plummeted, and the Nasdaq index fell by 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2644a7b6ba7e19e4e663468a8f8b02\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell's hawkish stance: The magnitude of the September rate hike depends on the overall data.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell's hawkish stance: The magnitude of the September rate hike depends on the overall data.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-26 22:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, August 26, at the highly anticipated Jackson Hole meeting of the Federal Reserve, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that interest rates would not be cut anytime soon.</p><p>Powell said the size of the September rate hike depends on the \"overall\" data. The lower inflation data for July is welcome, but...<b>Not enough to convince the central bank that inflation is falling.</b>。 The Federal Reserve may require restrictive policies for some time. The long-term neutral expectation level of the benchmark overnight rate of 2.25%-2.50% is \"not a place for the Federal Reserve to stop or pause its actions.\"</p><p>Powell hinted<b>The determination to exchange slowing economic growth for cooling inflation.</b>He said that reducing inflation may require economic growth to remain below trend for some time. Restoring price stability will take time, which requires...<b>\"powerfully\"</b>Use the tools of the central bank. The lessons of history show that,<b>Don't relax policies \"too early\"</b>。</p><p>Powell pointed out that the labor market is particularly strong, but unbalanced; High inflation continues to spread. While the employment environment is likely to weaken, causing some pain for households—an unfortunate price to pay for lowering inflation—the inability to restore price stability will mean even greater pain.</p><p>Regarding the economy, Powell stated that the economy continues to demonstrate strong fundamental momentum. The U.S. economy has slowed significantly, but the potential momentum is strong. To some extent,<b>As policy stances tighten further, it would be appropriate to slow down the pace of rate hike.</b></p><p>Affected by this news, US stocks plummeted, and the Nasdaq index fell by 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2644a7b6ba7e19e4e663468a8f8b02\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152393159","content_text":"8月26日周五，在备受瞩目的美联储杰克逊霍尔年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示不会很快降息。鲍威尔称，9月加息规模取决于“整体”数据。7月份的较低通胀数据值得欢迎，但还不足以让央行相信通胀正在下降。美联储可能在一段时间内要求采取限制性政策。基准隔夜利率2.25%-2.50%的长期中性预期水平“不是让美联储停止或暂停行动的位置”。鲍威尔暗示了用经济增长放缓换取通胀降温的决心。他说，降低通货膨胀可能需要经济增速持续一段时间低于趋势。恢复价格稳定需要一段时间，这需要“有力地”使用央行的工具。历史的教训显示，不要“过早”放松政策。鲍威尔指出，劳动力市场特别强劲，但失衡；高通胀继续蔓延。虽然就业环境很可能会有所疲软，给家庭带来一些痛苦，这些都是降低通胀的不幸代价，但无法恢复价格稳定将意味着更大的痛苦。对于经济，鲍威尔表示，经济继续显示强劲的基本面动力美国经济明显放缓，但潜在势头强劲。在某种程度上，随着政策立场进一步收紧，放慢加息步伐将是适当的。受此消息影响，美股直线下挫，纳斯达克指数跌幅扩大至1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996588372,"gmtCreate":1661202824499,"gmtModify":1676536470179,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996588372","repostId":"1141625467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996588922,"gmtCreate":1661202809370,"gmtModify":1676536470179,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996588922","repostId":"1141625467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996581796,"gmtCreate":1661202798617,"gmtModify":1676536470171,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996581796","repostId":"2261544041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2261544041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661172131,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2261544041?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-22 20:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The bull market is not over! Is a new wave of commodity price boom about to begin?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2261544041","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"经济衰退“对垒”供应短缺，谁将主导商品市场未来走势？今年以来，全球大宗商品价格跌宕起伏。开春，受供给侧制约推动，大宗商品涨势如虹，棉花、铜、石油、铁矿石、铝等期货价格不断创出新高。入夏，在强美元、弱经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Who will dominate the future trend of the commodity market against the economic recession and supply shortage? Global commodity prices have fluctuated wildly this year. At the beginning of spring, driven by supply-side constraints, commodities surged, with futures prices for cotton, copper, oil, iron ore, aluminum, and other commodities continuously hitting new highs. As summer began, impacted by unfavorable factors such as a strong US dollar and weak economic expectations, the commodity market showed significant divergence, with many major commodities experiencing a sharp correction.</p><p>Entering August, although commodity prices rebounded, they remained weak. For example, although EIA inventories plummeted by 7.1 million barrels more than expected on Wednesday, it did not drive oil prices up significantly. As of press time, the main US WTI crude oil futures contract is still fluctuating around the $90 mark, having fallen by more than 26% from its June high. COMEX gold majors rebounded above $1,820 per ounce on the 12th before reversing course and falling below $1,750 per ounce.</p><p>Many market analysts have warned that as major economies continue to tighten monetary policy, global commodity prices may fluctuate more in the second half of the year due to uncertainties, potentially bringing the global commodity market bull market to an end.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>However, a group of Wall Street figures did not waver in their confidence in the future of the commodity market. They believe that we may still be in a \"halftime break\" in this commodity super cycle, and a new wave of bull market may break out by the end of the year.</p><p>Goldman Sachs: Replenishment demand may push up commodity prices</p><p>According to Wall Street Insights, Goldman Sachs, the flagship commodity index, stated in a research report on August 11 that the S&P GSCI commodity index will rise 23.4% by the end of the year.</p><p>Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said, \"Irrational expectations are leading to unsustainable prices.\"</p><p>“Currently, there seems to be irrational expectations in the commodity market, with prices and inventories falling simultaneously, demand exceeding expectations, and supply falling short of expectations.” Furthermore, Currie points out that if this claim proves false and this oversupply fails to materialize, then the inventory replenishment boom will drive commodity scarcity and significantly push up prices in the fall. This could force central banks to tighten monetary policy more aggressively and cause a more persistent economic contraction.</p><p>Currie stated in the research report:</p><p>\"Today, stock and commodity markets are signaling to investors that demand is more persistent and commodity prices are rising, while interest rates and inflation curves suggest an impending economic slowdown and weakening. Until we see real softening in commodity fundamentals, we still believe in the former rather than the latter.\" UBS: Commodity supply concerns may be \"making a comeback.\"</p><p>On August 15, the Office of the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of UBS Wealth Management released a report stating that the institution believes commodities are oversold and, although there are still long-term risks, returns are expected in the short to medium term.</p><p>Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, and his team believe that the deteriorating global economic growth outlook and the strengthening of the US dollar are the current factors driving commodity prices. Although commodity prices may fall further as the global economy plunges into a deep recession, a \"soft landing\" is currently just as likely as a significant economic slowdown. The team also expects a rebound in China's demand for commodities in the future.</p><p>On the supply side, the team stated that overly pessimistic forecasts for the commodity market did not fully take into account supply dynamics. Overall, commodity supply will be constrained, and due to years of underinvestment, low official inventories in multiple industries, and weather and geopolitical factors, \"we are seeing positive demand trends.\"</p><p>The team also said concerns about supply shortages could resurface. Industrial metals and steel, as the core of the new commodity cycle and essential raw materials in the decarbonization process, may strongly boost the recovery of commodity prices:</p><p>“While this argument is not new, we believe the world is still not prepared to cope with the surge in demand associated with the transition to clean energy. Despite rising prices, a decade of low returns and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns have limited investment in future supply growth of key metals such as copper.” The team predicts that broad commodity indices are expected to achieve returns of 15%-20% over the next 6-12 months.</p><p>Variant Perception: Insufficient liquidity in commodity trading exacerbates the possibility of a short squeeze.</p><p>Investment research firm Variant Perception believes that we are currently in a \"pause\" in the commodity super cycle, and the overall trend of commodities in the second half of 2022 will show \"significant fluctuations and slight pointing deviations\". The agency believes that the current commodity price trend is quite similar to the trend in the fourth quarter of 2004 and the second half of 2006.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20f093a49dd6c14cf530fffc2edb9d31\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The agency also stated that insufficient liquidity in commodity futures trading will amplify the likelihood of a short squeeze rebound, as Jeremy Weir, CEO of commodity trading firm Toker, said:</p><p>\"The lack of depth in the commodity futures market appears to continue to be a challenge for the industry as all participants reduce their trading in derivatives, thereby putting pressure on the ability to trade physical commodities.\" Minsheng Securities: The cyclical repricing path has officially begun.</p><p>Mu Yiling, a strategist at Minsheng University, believes that the global market traded \"recession = declining inflation\" in advance. The implicit assumption behind this is that as long as the demand curve is shifted back to the left through tight monetary policy, price levels can fall, escape \"stagflation\" and enter post-recession easing. However, due to both green inflation and demographic reversal, long-term changes are competing with short-term economic cycles, and inflation is currently showing stickiness.</p><p>Mu Yiling stated:</p><p>\"After fully pricing in the short-term demand downturn, the long-term inflation issue will drive a readjustment of market pricing.\" Furthermore, Mu Yiling stated that considering that overseas recession trading is coming to an end, inflationary stickiness is being repriced, and the impact of domestic power rationing will also catalyze the capacity value of traditional energy sources, which already urgently need to be reassessed. Considering that old energy sources are currently becoming the focus of global trading, the elasticity of thermal coal, oil and gas, and electricity, as well as industrial metals (aluminum, copper) in the recovery of demand expectations, should not be ignored.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market is not over! Is a new wave of commodity price boom about to begin?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market is not over! Is a new wave of commodity price boom about to begin?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-22 20:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Who will dominate the future trend of the commodity market against the economic recession and supply shortage? Global commodity prices have fluctuated wildly this year. At the beginning of spring, driven by supply-side constraints, commodities surged, with futures prices for cotton, copper, oil, iron ore, aluminum, and other commodities continuously hitting new highs. As summer began, impacted by unfavorable factors such as a strong US dollar and weak economic expectations, the commodity market showed significant divergence, with many major commodities experiencing a sharp correction.</p><p>Entering August, although commodity prices rebounded, they remained weak. For example, although EIA inventories plummeted by 7.1 million barrels more than expected on Wednesday, it did not drive oil prices up significantly. As of press time, the main US WTI crude oil futures contract is still fluctuating around the $90 mark, having fallen by more than 26% from its June high. COMEX gold majors rebounded above $1,820 per ounce on the 12th before reversing course and falling below $1,750 per ounce.</p><p>Many market analysts have warned that as major economies continue to tighten monetary policy, global commodity prices may fluctuate more in the second half of the year due to uncertainties, potentially bringing the global commodity market bull market to an end.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>However, a group of Wall Street figures did not waver in their confidence in the future of the commodity market. They believe that we may still be in a \"halftime break\" in this commodity super cycle, and a new wave of bull market may break out by the end of the year.</p><p>Goldman Sachs: Replenishment demand may push up commodity prices</p><p>According to Wall Street Insights, Goldman Sachs, the flagship commodity index, stated in a research report on August 11 that the S&P GSCI commodity index will rise 23.4% by the end of the year.</p><p>Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said, \"Irrational expectations are leading to unsustainable prices.\"</p><p>“Currently, there seems to be irrational expectations in the commodity market, with prices and inventories falling simultaneously, demand exceeding expectations, and supply falling short of expectations.” Furthermore, Currie points out that if this claim proves false and this oversupply fails to materialize, then the inventory replenishment boom will drive commodity scarcity and significantly push up prices in the fall. This could force central banks to tighten monetary policy more aggressively and cause a more persistent economic contraction.</p><p>Currie stated in the research report:</p><p>\"Today, stock and commodity markets are signaling to investors that demand is more persistent and commodity prices are rising, while interest rates and inflation curves suggest an impending economic slowdown and weakening. Until we see real softening in commodity fundamentals, we still believe in the former rather than the latter.\" UBS: Commodity supply concerns may be \"making a comeback.\"</p><p>On August 15, the Office of the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of UBS Wealth Management released a report stating that the institution believes commodities are oversold and, although there are still long-term risks, returns are expected in the short to medium term.</p><p>Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, and his team believe that the deteriorating global economic growth outlook and the strengthening of the US dollar are the current factors driving commodity prices. Although commodity prices may fall further as the global economy plunges into a deep recession, a \"soft landing\" is currently just as likely as a significant economic slowdown. The team also expects a rebound in China's demand for commodities in the future.</p><p>On the supply side, the team stated that overly pessimistic forecasts for the commodity market did not fully take into account supply dynamics. Overall, commodity supply will be constrained, and due to years of underinvestment, low official inventories in multiple industries, and weather and geopolitical factors, \"we are seeing positive demand trends.\"</p><p>The team also said concerns about supply shortages could resurface. Industrial metals and steel, as the core of the new commodity cycle and essential raw materials in the decarbonization process, may strongly boost the recovery of commodity prices:</p><p>“While this argument is not new, we believe the world is still not prepared to cope with the surge in demand associated with the transition to clean energy. Despite rising prices, a decade of low returns and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns have limited investment in future supply growth of key metals such as copper.” The team predicts that broad commodity indices are expected to achieve returns of 15%-20% over the next 6-12 months.</p><p>Variant Perception: Insufficient liquidity in commodity trading exacerbates the possibility of a short squeeze.</p><p>Investment research firm Variant Perception believes that we are currently in a \"pause\" in the commodity super cycle, and the overall trend of commodities in the second half of 2022 will show \"significant fluctuations and slight pointing deviations\". The agency believes that the current commodity price trend is quite similar to the trend in the fourth quarter of 2004 and the second half of 2006.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20f093a49dd6c14cf530fffc2edb9d31\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The agency also stated that insufficient liquidity in commodity futures trading will amplify the likelihood of a short squeeze rebound, as Jeremy Weir, CEO of commodity trading firm Toker, said:</p><p>\"The lack of depth in the commodity futures market appears to continue to be a challenge for the industry as all participants reduce their trading in derivatives, thereby putting pressure on the ability to trade physical commodities.\" Minsheng Securities: The cyclical repricing path has officially begun.</p><p>Mu Yiling, a strategist at Minsheng University, believes that the global market traded \"recession = declining inflation\" in advance. The implicit assumption behind this is that as long as the demand curve is shifted back to the left through tight monetary policy, price levels can fall, escape \"stagflation\" and enter post-recession easing. However, due to both green inflation and demographic reversal, long-term changes are competing with short-term economic cycles, and inflation is currently showing stickiness.</p><p>Mu Yiling stated:</p><p>\"After fully pricing in the short-term demand downturn, the long-term inflation issue will drive a readjustment of market pricing.\" Furthermore, Mu Yiling stated that considering that overseas recession trading is coming to an end, inflationary stickiness is being repriced, and the impact of domestic power rationing will also catalyze the capacity value of traditional energy sources, which already urgently need to be reassessed. Considering that old energy sources are currently becoming the focus of global trading, the elasticity of thermal coal, oil and gas, and electricity, as well as industrial metals (aluminum, copper) in the recovery of demand expectations, should not be ignored.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668341\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668341","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2261544041","content_text":"经济衰退“对垒”供应短缺，谁将主导商品市场未来走势？今年以来，全球大宗商品价格跌宕起伏。开春，受供给侧制约推动，大宗商品涨势如虹，棉花、铜、石油、铁矿石、铝等期货价格不断创出新高。入夏，在强美元、弱经济预期等不利因素的冲击下，商品市场分化明显，不少主力品种出现了深度回调。进入8月，大宗商品价格虽有反弹，但仍处于弱势。例如，尽管周三EIA库存超预期骤降710万桶，但仍未推动油价大幅上行。截至发稿，美国WTI原油期货主力合约仍在90美元关口反复博弈，较6月份高点累计下跌超26%；COMEX黄金主力在12日反弹至1820美元/盎司上方后再次转向，跌至不足1750美元/盎司。不少市场分析人士警告称，随着主要经济体继续收紧货币政策，下半年全球大宗商品价格受不确定因素影响可能加大震荡，全球大宗商品市场牛市或宣告终结。然而，高盛、瑞银等一众华尔街人士却丝毫没有动摇对商品市场后市的信心。他们认为，当下可能仍处在本轮大宗商品超级周期中的“中场休息”，新一波牛市行情或在年底爆发。高盛：补库需求或推升商品价格华尔街见闻提及，大宗商品“旗手”高盛在8月11日的一份研究报告中称，标普GSCI大宗商品指数年底前将上涨23.4%。高盛大宗商品研究全球主管Jeff Currie表示，“非理性预期导致了不可持续的价格”：“如今，大宗商品市场似乎存在非理性预期，价格和库存同时下降，需求超过预期，供应不及预期。”进一步，Currie指出，如果这种说法被证明是错误的，而且这种供应过剩未能成为现实，那么补充库存的热潮将推动商品稀缺，并在秋季大幅推高价格。这可能迫使央行更积极地收紧货币政策，并造成更持久的经济收缩。Currie在研报中称：“如今，股市和大宗商品市场向投资者发出的信号是，需求更加持久，大宗商品价格上涨，而利率和通胀曲线则暗示经济即将放缓和走软。在我们看到真正的大宗商品基本面软化之前，我们仍然相信前者，而不是后者。”瑞银：大宗商品供给担忧或“卷土重来”8月15日，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）发表报告表示，该机构认为大宗商品处于超卖状态，虽然仍有长期风险，但中短期有望获得收益。瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官Mark Haefele及其团队认为，全球经济增长前景恶化、美元走强是当下主导大宗商品价格走向的影响因素。尽管大宗商品价格可能在全球经济陷入深度衰退的情况下进一步下跌，但目前来看“软着陆”和经济明显放缓的可能性一样大。该团队还预计，未来中国对大宗商品的需求将出现反弹。供应方面，该团队表示，大宗商品市场的过度悲观预测并没有充分考虑到供应方面的动态。总体而言，大宗商品供应会受到限制，由于多年的投资不足、多个行业的官方库存都很低，以及天气和地缘政治因素，“我们看到了积极的需求趋势”。该团队还表示，对供应短缺的担忧可能卷土重来。工业金属和钢铁作为新大宗商品周期的核心和脱碳化过程中的必要原料，或将有力助推商品价格复苏：“虽然这种说法并不新鲜，但我们认为，世界仍没有准备好应对与向清洁能源转型相关的需求激增。尽管价格上涨，但十年来的低回报率以及对环境、社会和治理（ESG）的担忧，已经限制了对铜等关键金属未来供应增长的投资。”该团队预计，未来6-12个月，广泛大宗商品指数有望取得15%-20%的回报率。Variant Perception：大宗商品交易流动性不足，加剧逼空可能性投资研究公司 Variant Perception 的观点认为，当下正处在商品超级周期的“间歇”，2022年下半年大宗商品走势整体会呈现“大幅波动、小幅指向偏差”。该机构认为，当下大宗商品价格走势与将04年第四季度、06年下半年的走势较为类似。该机构还表示，大宗商品期货交易流动性不足，也将放大逼空反弹的可能性，正如大宗商品交易机构托克首席执行官Jeremy Weir所言：“大宗商品期货市场缺乏深度，似乎将继续是该行业面临的一个挑战，因为所有参与者都减少了对衍生品的交易，进而对大宗商品实物交易的能力构成压力。”民生证券：周期的重定价之路已正式开启民生策略分析师牟一凌认为，全球市场提前交易了“衰退=通胀下行”，背后隐含的假设是只要通过紧缩的货币政策将需求曲线重新左移，就可以实现价格水平的回落，从“滞胀”中逃离，进入衰退后的宽松。不过，由于绿色通胀和人口逆转都在发生作用，长周期变化正在与短经济周期形成角力，目前通胀正在呈现粘性。牟一凌表示：“在充分定价了短期需求下行后，长期通胀的问题将驱动市场定价的重新修正。”进一步，牟一凌称，考虑到海外的衰退交易正在告一段落，通胀粘性正在被重新定价，而国内的限电冲击也将催化本就亟待被重估的传统能源的产能价值，结合当下老能源正成为全球交易的关注点，动力煤、油气和电力，以及工业金属（铝、铜）在需求预期修复中的弹性不应该被忽视。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996581185,"gmtCreate":1661202533950,"gmtModify":1676536470156,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/223fd60ccb1ff5468b21948bcf5f5d1a","width":"1242","height":"3497"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996581185","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9998617585,"gmtCreate":1660979260550,"gmtModify":1676536434849,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998617585","repostId":"2260437405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2260437405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660960527,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260437405?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 09:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Are frequent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials setting the tone for Powell's central bank meeting next week?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260437405","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have recently repeatedly hinted that controlling inflation remains the Fed's primary goal, even if rate hike could drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes this may be a warm-up for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish speech at the Global Central Bank Conference next Friday. Next week, one of the most anticipated financial events for global investors will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, to be held in Wyoming, USA, on Friday, August 26. At this event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, the content of which may indicate the direction of U.S. borrowing costs.</p><p><b>Prior to Powell's comments, other senior Federal Reserve officials had recently made hawkish remarks, seemingly setting the tone for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve observers expect Powell to deliver tough remarks as he reinforces the central bank's goals of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, August 19, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said that the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if it leads to a recession.</b></p><p>Just a day earlier, three senior Federal Reserve officials made hawkish remarks.</p><p><b>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a major hawk at the Federal Reserve, said he favors the Fed's September rate hike of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Bullard said he’s considering backing another big rate hike at next month’s Fed meeting, adding that he’s not ready for the economy to have already weathered the worst of soaring inflation:</p><p>We should continue to rapidly raise the policy interest rate to a level that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike is being delayed until next year. Speaking about next month's policy meeting, he said:</p><p>I am now inclined to rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good understanding of the economy, and our inflation rate is very high, so I think it makes sense to continue raising the policy interest rate and get into a range where inflation can be controlled.<b>On the same day, another hawkish Federal Reserve official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed a similar view. She believes that while US inflation may be easing, it remains high:</b></p><p>The US July CPI data is encouraging, but it would be too hasty to declare the Biden administration a victory in the fight against inflation now.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, traditionally considered a dovish official at the Federal Reserve, argued that the Fed should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% by the end of the year to cool inflation.</b></p><p>We need to raise interest rates to at least a neutral level, around 3%, but it may enter restrictive territory.<b>Daly further stated that the specific amount of rate hike in September depends on subsequent economic data; 50 basis points or 75 basis points could be an appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Despite Daly's relatively mild statement, given her traditionally dovish stance, her suggestion of a possible 75 basis point rate hike still shattered market expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She went on to say:</b></p><p><b>We do not want the market to perceive the Federal Reserve's path as a hump-shaped one, meaning it will rate hike rapidly this year and then cut interest rates sharply next year.</b><b>How will the market react?</b></p><p><b>This week, the market seems to have begun to react to the Federal Reserve's hawkish views.</b></p><p>Major U.S. stock indices all fell this week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500, which rose more than 3% last week, fell by 2.62% and 1.21% respectively, while the Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell by 2.38%, both ending their longest winning streak since November last year, which ended last week's four-week winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% after rebounding last week. The Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, the largest decliner.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has already risen 40 basis points this month.</p><p>In addition, hawkish comments from senior Federal Reserve officials caused the dollar to surge.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, its biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cryptocurrencies also appeared to be affected by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with a sharp drop on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year</b></p><p>Although the market believes the Federal Reserve will \"keep its word\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, expectations for a Fed rate cut next year are rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Research Institute, believes:</p><p>To reduce inflation to its 2% target, the Federal Reserve will have to suppress the economy.<b>However, in order to promote growth, the Federal Reserve will at some point \"accept coexistence with inflation\".</b>This dovish shift is unlikely to occur in the short term compared to what the market currently seems to expect, but it could arrive in 2023.</body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are frequent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials setting the tone for Powell's central bank meeting next week?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre frequent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials setting the tone for Powell's central bank meeting next week?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-20 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have recently repeatedly hinted that controlling inflation remains the Fed's primary goal, even if rate hike could drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes this may be a warm-up for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish speech at the Global Central Bank Conference next Friday. Next week, one of the most anticipated financial events for global investors will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, to be held in Wyoming, USA, on Friday, August 26. At this event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, the content of which may indicate the direction of U.S. borrowing costs.</p><p><b>Prior to Powell's comments, other senior Federal Reserve officials had recently made hawkish remarks, seemingly setting the tone for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve observers expect Powell to deliver tough remarks as he reinforces the central bank's goals of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, August 19, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said that the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if it leads to a recession.</b></p><p>Just a day earlier, three senior Federal Reserve officials made hawkish remarks.</p><p><b>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a major hawk at the Federal Reserve, said he favors the Fed's September rate hike of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Bullard said he’s considering backing another big rate hike at next month’s Fed meeting, adding that he’s not ready for the economy to have already weathered the worst of soaring inflation:</p><p>We should continue to rapidly raise the policy interest rate to a level that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike is being delayed until next year. Speaking about next month's policy meeting, he said:</p><p>I am now inclined to rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good understanding of the economy, and our inflation rate is very high, so I think it makes sense to continue raising the policy interest rate and get into a range where inflation can be controlled.<b>On the same day, another hawkish Federal Reserve official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed a similar view. She believes that while US inflation may be easing, it remains high:</b></p><p>The US July CPI data is encouraging, but it would be too hasty to declare the Biden administration a victory in the fight against inflation now.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, traditionally considered a dovish official at the Federal Reserve, argued that the Fed should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% by the end of the year to cool inflation.</b></p><p>We need to raise interest rates to at least a neutral level, around 3%, but it may enter restrictive territory.<b>Daly further stated that the specific amount of rate hike in September depends on subsequent economic data; 50 basis points or 75 basis points could be an appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Despite Daly's relatively mild statement, given her traditionally dovish stance, her suggestion of a possible 75 basis point rate hike still shattered market expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She went on to say:</b></p><p><b>We do not want the market to perceive the Federal Reserve's path as a hump-shaped one, meaning it will rate hike rapidly this year and then cut interest rates sharply next year.</b><b>How will the market react?</b></p><p><b>This week, the market seems to have begun to react to the Federal Reserve's hawkish views.</b></p><p>Major U.S. stock indices all fell this week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500, which rose more than 3% last week, fell by 2.62% and 1.21% respectively, while the Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell by 2.38%, both ending their longest winning streak since November last year, which ended last week's four-week winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% after rebounding last week. The Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, the largest decliner.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has already risen 40 basis points this month.</p><p>In addition, hawkish comments from senior Federal Reserve officials caused the dollar to surge.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, its biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cryptocurrencies also appeared to be affected by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with a sharp drop on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year</b></p><p>Although the market believes the Federal Reserve will \"keep its word\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, expectations for a Fed rate cut next year are rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Research Institute, believes:</p><p>To reduce inflation to its 2% target, the Federal Reserve will have to suppress the economy.<b>However, in order to promote growth, the Federal Reserve will at some point \"accept coexistence with inflation\".</b>This dovish shift is unlikely to occur in the short term compared to what the market currently seems to expect, but it could arrive in 2023.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2260437405","content_text":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的财经事件之一就是8月26日下周五在美国怀俄明州举办的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会了。在这场活动中，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话，讨论经济前景，其讲话内容可能预示着美国的借贷成本走向。在鲍威尔发表观点之前，其他美联储高官最近纷纷发表鹰派言论，似乎是在为鲍威尔的讲话“定调”。美联储观察人士预计，鲍威尔将发表强硬言论，因为他强化了央行抑制通胀和控制未来物价上涨预期的目标。8月19日周五，里士满联储主席巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）表示，即使通胀导致经济陷入衰退，美联储也必须继续对抗通胀。就在一天前，三位美联储高官纷纷发表鹰派言论。美联储大鹰派圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）表示，他倾向于美联储9月加息75个基点。布拉德说，他正在考虑在下个月的美联储议息会议上支持再次大幅加息，并补充说他还没有准备好经济已经经历了通胀飙升的最糟糕时期：我们应该继续迅速将政策利率提高到将对通胀造成重大下行压力的水平。我真的不明白为什么要将加息拖到明年。在谈到下个月的议息会议时，他说：我现在倾向于再次加息75个基点。我认为我们对经济的解读相对较好，而且我们的通胀率非常高，所以我认为继续提高政策利率并进入能够控制通胀的区间是有意义的。同一天，另一位美联储鹰派官员堪萨斯城联储主席乔治（Esther George）也表达了类似的观点。她认为，美国通胀虽然可能正在趋于缓和，但仍然偏高：美国7月CPI数据是鼓舞人心的，但现在就宣布拜登政府抗通胀取得胜利还显得操之过急。周四，向来被视作美联储鸽派官员的旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary Daly）则认为，美联储应在年底前将利率“略微”提高到3%以上，以冷却通胀：我们需要提高利率，至少达到中性水平，约为3%，但可能会进入限制性区域。戴利进一步称，具体9月加息多少，要看接下来的经济数据，50个基点或者75个基点，都可能是合适的加息幅度。尽管戴利的表态相对温和，但由于她向来相对鸽派，她所称的可能加息75个基点，依然打破了市场对美联储暂停加息或者大幅收窄加息幅度的期待。她还进一步说：我们不希望市场认为美联储的路径是驼峰形的，即今年迅速加息，明年再大举降息。市场如何反应？本周的市场，似乎已经开始对美联储的鹰派观点做出反应。本周主要美股指均累计下跌，上周涨超3%的纳指和标普分别累跌2.62%和1.21%，上周涨近3%的纳斯达克100累跌2.38%，均结束截至上周连涨四周所创的去年11月以来最长连涨周；上周涨近3%的道指累跌0.16%，在上周反弹后回落；上周涨近5%的罗素2000累跌2.94%，跌幅居首。十年期美国国债收益率本月则已经走高了40个基点。此外，美联储高官们的鹰派言论导致美元飙升，美元指数本周飙升2%，这是自2020年4月以来的最大单周涨幅。加密货币的表现似乎也受到了美联储鹰派立场的波及，周五出现暴跌。市场仍预期明年美联储将降息尽管市场相信美联储今年内将“说到做到”，贯彻鹰派立场，但市场对明年美联储降息的预期却越来越高。贝莱德投资研究所高级投资策略师Ann-Katrin Petersen认为：为了将通胀率降至2%的目标，美联储将不得不压制经济。但是，为了促进增长，美联储将在某个时候“接受与通胀共存”。 与市场目前似乎预期的情况相比，这种鸽派转向不太可能在短期内出现，但这种鸽派转向可能会在2023年到来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".DJI":1,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,"QID":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"QLD":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072557294,"gmtCreate":1658070533018,"gmtModify":1676536100849,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a>..","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a>..","text":"$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14e9880ed0aa55b0f340323c0a053698","width":"1242","height":"2828"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072557294","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052119125,"gmtCreate":1655136123967,"gmtModify":1676535568392,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052119125","repostId":"2243019507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243019507","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪海内外最新宏观政策和经济走势，分享来自莫尼塔宏观团队的最新观点。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"钟正生经济分析","id":"70","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b"},"pubTimestamp":1655095529,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243019507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 12:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed's shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243019507","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's Note:</b>In May 2022, the US CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations and further highlighting the necessity for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. Since the Federal Reserve officially began reducing its balance sheet in June, money market interest rates have remained relatively stable overall, but the combined impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices remains a concern.<b>Core Points</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet starting June 1, with plans to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month, increasing to $95 billion three months later. How does this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet differ from previous ones? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to a lack of effective references, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow.<b>2）</b>To avoid sending different policy signals at the same time as interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule in August 2019, two months ahead of schedule.</p><p><b>The macroeconomic context for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction this time is different, especially regarding inflation.</b>Compared to 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet is different from previous ones, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank by approximately 15.7% over the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019. According to the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet plan, the Fed's balance sheet will decrease by the same percentage in about 16-17 months (around October 2023).<b>Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve may demonstrate greater flexibility during this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>Currently, the US employment situation remains relatively strong. If inflationary pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its balance sheet reduction pace, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021.<b>on the other hand</b>Considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have a certain degree of substitution. If inflationary pressures in the United States ease, the Federal Reserve may slow down its balance sheet reduction pace in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" for the economy.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet structure and policy tools have undergone significant changes, especially the reverse repurchase agreement on the liability side and the significant increase in the size and proportion of general deposits of the Treasury Department. This means that shrinking balance sheet may have a relatively low impact on liquidity. First,</b>From the asset side, the proportion of MBS, whose scale changes are subject to significant uncertainty, has decreased, reducing the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Second</b>The significant increase in the size of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit of interest rates mean that market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker buffer against the liquidity shock of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third</b>As U.S. fiscal policy gradually normalizes, the Treasury's general deposits may slowly fall back to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year, thereby releasing some liquidity to the market and mitigating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Fourth</b>The introduction of standing repurchase facilities can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence, and reduce the probability of liquidity shortages.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be significantly disrupted in the early stages of the shrinking balance sheet, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet on asset prices should not be underestimated.</b>。 Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to over 3% at one point. In particular, the real interest rate has returned from -0.90% on March 1 to 0.34% on May 10, reflecting the market further factoring in the influence of shrinking balance sheet. The rise in US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the correction in US stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve released a statement from its May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, with a plan to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month and $95 billion per month after three months. This is in line with the discussions in the March meeting minutes, but it did not specify the end of the shrinking balance sheet, only indicating that the pace of shrinking balance sheet would be slowed down when it was close to reaching a \"sufficient level\". How does this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet differ from previous ones? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>A Review of the Last Round of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Normalization</b></p><p>Following the outbreak of the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve introduced a series of unconventional monetary policy tools, such as zero interest rates and quantitative easing, to cope with the economic recession. As the U.S. economy stabilized and recovered, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and began its shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to review the previous round of monetary policy normalization by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Federal Reserve's last round of monetary policy normalization began in May 2013. In a speech, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that \"if the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Fed may begin to gradually slow down its asset purchases at a future meeting,\" sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to insufficient communication with the market, financial markets experienced significant volatility, known as a \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve announced a Taper timetable at its interest rate meeting, which included monthly tapering and ultimately ending QE from January to October 2014. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate hike since the financial crisis, but only scratched the surface after only 25 basis points of rate hike. It did not begin its second rate hike until December 2016, and subsequently raised policy interest rates.</p><p><b>The focus should be on shrinking balance sheet operations during the previous round of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy normalization.</b>As the Federal Reserve's rate hike process deepens, shrinking balance sheet has also been put on the agenda. Starting in October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS by $6 billion and $4 billion respectively per month, and increase them by $6 billion and $4 billion every three months over the next 12 months. It wasn't until October 2018, a year later, that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet rate peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion in Treasury Bond + $20 billion in MBS). This may reflect,<b>Due to a lack of effective references, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Fed preferred to mitigate the impact of liquidity tightening on financial markets through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule in August 2019.</b>At its July 2019 policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop shrinking balance sheet starting in August of that year, a move two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet at the time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid interest rate cuts being carried out simultaneously with shrinking balance sheet and sending different policy signals.</b>At its August 2019 policy meeting, in response to low inflation and pressure from slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% reduction in the target federal funds rate. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed out, the target federal funds rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are merely auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when downward pressure on the economy increases and policy interest rates need to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet should \"give way\" to interest rate cuts.</p><p><b>Second, the money market is beginning to experience a liquidity shortage.</b>Following the global financial crisis, with the launch of three rounds of quantitative easing (QE), the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism has shifted from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor System\" to an unconventional \"interest rate Floor System.\" In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the reserve requirement ratio (IOR) is the upper limit of the interest rate, while the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operation rate is the lower limit. When liquidity is ample, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will operate between the two. However, starting in mid-2019, as liquidity continued to shrink, Federal Funds rate began to break through the IOR, which is the upper limit, and \"cash shortage\" events occurred frequently, gradually bringing the \"interest rate floor\" system to the brink of failure. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July 2019 specifically mentioned that the reduction in reserves brought about by shrinking balance sheet led to significant fluctuations in short-term interest rates, which also indicated that liquidity in the US money market had begun to run short at that time. In its statement in October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Fed would conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Despite liquidity shortages in the later stages of the previous shrinking balance sheet, the US stock market remained relatively strong throughout the shrinking balance sheet and was not significantly impacted.</b>In the nearly one year since the start of the last shrinking balance sheet, the U.S. stock market has continued its previous upward trend, with the S&P 500 rising 15.2% from early October 2017 to the end of September 2018. Although the stock market experienced a brief correction afterward, it was mainly due to weakening fundamentals, with the US manufacturing PMI beginning to decline significantly in the fourth quarter of 2018. Starting in early 2019, as the Federal Reserve continued to release dovish signals, US stocks began to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet are different.</b></p><p>Looking at the two main aspects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focus—growth and employment—compared to the start of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macroeconomic context for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction this time is different, especially regarding inflation.</b>Unlike the low inflation and low unemployment rate in early 2017, the United States currently has a lower unemployment rate but higher inflation, given that the labor force participation rate has not yet fully recovered. In March 2022, the US CPI reached 8.5% year-on-year, a new high in nearly 40 years. Furthermore, impacted by short-term factors such as declining demand for inventory replenishment and a significant increase in the trade deficit, the US GDP declined by 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The backdrop of high inflation determined that the pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet was different this time.</b>After then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Fed did not truly begin Taper until the end of October 2014. More than a year later, the Fed began rate hike, and the time lag between the start of Taper and shrinking balance sheet reached 46 months. Moreover, when the balance sheet reduction began, the US federal benchmark interest rate had already reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in order to cope with the increasing inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet is faster than in the past.</b>Since the Taper signal was released in the second half of 2021, the Federal Reserve's process of normalizing monetary policy has been accelerating. In this round of Federal Reserve monetary policy normalization, the time gap between the initiation of Taper and shrinking balance sheet is only about six months, and the pace of tightening is much faster than before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting indicated that it will begin its shrinking balance sheet on June 1, planning to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month, and three months later, it plans to reduce its asset holdings by $95 billion per month. Not only was the initial size and pace of shrinking balance sheet much higher than the previous round ($10 billion per month, increasing by $10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet was also higher than the previous round of $50 billion per month.<b>Changes in the size and pace of shrinking balance sheet will cause the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to decline at a faster rate in this round: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet decreased by approximately $700 billion, a decrease of 15.7%. According to the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet plan, the Fed's balance sheet will decrease by the same percentage in about 16-17 months (around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve may demonstrate greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>The employment situation in the United States remains relatively strong, with the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits at historically low levels. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its balance sheet reduction pace, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021.<b>on the other hand</b>Considering the impact of \"temporary factors\" such as a decline in inventory investment and a surge in imports, the US economy declined by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter year-on-year in the first quarter. Whether these shocks are temporary remains controversial, but concerns about a \"hard landing\" for the U.S. economy are undoubtedly growing in both the market and the Federal Reserve. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are somewhat substitutable, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effects of the combination of measures. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States ease in the future, the Federal Reserve may slow down its balance sheet reduction pace to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This also aligns with the Federal Reserve's vague statement at its May policy meeting that it would slow the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it was close to reaching a 'sufficient level'.</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet structure and policy tools differ this time.</b></p><p><b>Studying the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from discussing its balance sheet.</b>From the asset side, the Federal Reserve's assets mainly consist of securities assets, namely various Treasury Bond and MBS purchased during its balance sheet expansion, accounting for nearly 95%. From the liability side, the Federal Reserve's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, Treasury deposits, and reverse repurchase agreements, with these four items accounting for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, which account for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, Treasury Bond’s share of the Federal Reserve’s total assets rose from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and its current holdings amount to approximately $5.7 trillion. The proportion of MBS in the Federal Reserve's total assets decreased from 39.7% to 30.4%, but its size still exceeded $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared to 2017, the differences on the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are more pronounced, with the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements held by the Treasury Department increasing significantly.</b>When the last round of shrinking balance sheet began in October 2017, the Treasury's general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements among the Federal Reserve's liabilities were $185.1 billion and $374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%. This led to the decline in liabilities during the last round of balance sheet reduction being mainly achieved through a decrease in reserves. However, as of now, the scale and proportion of the Ministry of Finance's general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements have both increased significantly. Among them, the scale of the Ministry of Finance's general deposits has reached US$957.4 billion, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached US$2.09 trillion, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two has approached the scale of reserves.</p><p><b>Given the significant changes in the Federal Reserve's current balance sheet structure and policy tools, the impact of shrinking balance sheet on liquidity may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>First,</b>，<b>From the asset side, the decrease in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty during balance sheet reduction.</b>For Treasury Bond, since its expiration date and scale are known, the pace of Treasury Bond' share reduction is basically certain. However, there may be some uncertainty surrounding MBS's share reduction process. This mainly stems from: 1) MBS has the possibility of early repayment, allowing borrowers to choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when selling their home or refinancing their mortgage; 2) From an operational perspective, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is relatively long. The time interval between receiving the principal (resulting in a decrease in holdings) and the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in holdings) can be as long as three months. During the last round of balance sheet reduction, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the scale of its reduction was relatively higher, reaching two-thirds of the scale of Treasury Bond' reduction. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Fed's maximum reduction in holdings was $60 billion per month in Treasury Bond and $35 billion in MBS. MBS accounted for a lower proportion of the reduction, which means that the uncertainty of this round of shrinking balance sheet is relatively lower.</p><p><b>Secondly, from the liability side, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that there is ample liquidity in the market, which can mitigate the liquidity shock brought about by shrinking balance sheet.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool functions similarly to the People's Bank of my country's reverse repurchase tool. Both aim to recover excess liquidity in the market by selling securities to financial institutions and agreeing to repurchase them after a certain period of time. Therefore, during periods of excess liquidity and low market interest rates, non-bank financial institutions choose to invest funds in the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase agreements in order to obtain stable returns. The reverse repurchase agreement rate thus becomes the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor under the sufficient reserve system, and the amount of reverse repurchase tools used also reflects the ample level of market liquidity to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Why is the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements currently much higher than at the start of the last shrinking balance sheet? First</b>For banks, holding reserves involves costs. As banks increase their reserves, their overall balance sheet size will also expand, leading to higher capital regulatory requirements. Therefore, banks' willingness to hold reserves will not increase indefinitely.<b>Secondly</b>Banks earn from holding reserves through arbitrage transactions, which involve borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repurchase rate (between the ON RRP rate and the reserve requirement rate) and depositing these funds with the Federal Reserve to earn interest calculated at the reserve requirement rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the return ON arbitrage trading. Before and after the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this interest rate spread remained at 25 basis points, while it is currently only 10 basis points. This has undoubtedly reduced banks' arbitrage returns, thereby limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. As a result, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, which can only directly deposit this portion of funds with the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also indicates that liquidity is now more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve interest rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower limits of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculated the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates, respectively, representing the distance between the upper and lower limits of short-term interest rates. It can be seen that before and after the start of the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR was smaller, indicating that short-term interest rates were closer to the upper limit at that time; Currently, the difference between the EFFR and ON RRP rates is smaller, and short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit, reflecting that liquidity is now more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was mostly bank reserves. However, the current surge in the size of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) is closer to the lower limit of interest rates all indicate that the liquidity of both banks and non-bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Federal Reserve withdraws liquidity through shrinking balance sheet, the size of bonds held on the asset side of its balance sheet decreases; On the liability side, a corresponding reduction can be achieved by reducing the size of reverse repurchase agreements (rather than reducing the size of reserves as in the previous round of shrinking balance sheet), thereby reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the Ministry of Finance's general deposits will also release some liquidity.</b>。 The high growth in the Ministry of Finance's general deposits is another important feature of this balance sheet reduction. Similar to the role of my country's fiscal deposits, changes in the U.S. Treasury's general deposits can also disrupt market liquidity. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the size of the Treasury's general deposits (TGA) on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet fluctuated to some extent, the total size remained basically below $400 billion. After the outbreak of the pandemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of funds through the issuance of Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, reaching a record high of nearly $1.8 trillion at one point. In the first quarter of 2021, with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill, the size of the TGA declined rapidly. In 2021, the U.S. government debt reached its ceiling, making it difficult for the Treasury Department to continue financing through bond issuance. The TGA account balance continued to decline, once falling to less than $60 billion, releasing a large amount of liquidity into the market in the process. However, after the U.S. government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond, and by the end of April, the size of the TGA account had exceeded $900 billion.<b>Looking ahead, US fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the Treasury's general deposits may slowly fall back to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year, which will release some liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity shock brought about by shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the introduction of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has also reduced the probability of liquidity shortages.</b>Starting in mid-2019, signs of a liquidity shortage emerged in the US financial markets, with spot interest rates continuously breaking through the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. In September 2019, influenced by factors such as tax payments and Treasury Bond issuance, the EFFR was once 20 basis points higher than the reserve requirement rate. In March 2020, the US financial markets experienced another \"cash crunch,\" with the three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents future borrowing costs, rising to its highest level since 2008, and the New York Federal Reserve's repurchase operations being continuously oversubscribed. The frequent liquidity shortages have drawn the attention of the Federal Reserve: In July 2021, in order to address the liquidity shortages that may arise during the normalization of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve \"planned ahead\" and launched the SRF tool. This tool allows qualified traders to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve at a certain interest rate (usually set at the ceiling of the federal funds target rate) using Treasury Bond, ABS, or MBS as collateral.</p><p><b>SRF tools mainly work through two channels: First,</b>As mentioned earlier, the interest rate on reserves (IOR) only acts as a cap on interest rates when liquidity is ample. When liquidity begins to tighten, some financial institutions are willing to borrow funds from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing short-term interest rates to break through the IOR, which is the upper limit of interest rates. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thereby reducing upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates through repurchase operations before the SRF tool was launched in September 2019.<b>Second</b>The introduction of the SRF tool has enhanced market confidence in short-term interest rate stability, thereby reducing the possibility of significant fluctuations in market interest rates. Therefore, this tool can ensure that the spot rate operates within the target range of the federal funds rate.</p><p><b>In addition, the usage of SRF tools is also an important window for observing the liquidity situation in financial markets.</b>When financial market liquidity can meet actual needs, financial institutions can raise funds smoothly through the market, and the use of SRF tools should be relatively low. When financial markets experience a liquidity shortage, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF tools will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>In general, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that began in 2017, the increased inflationary pressures may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet this time. However, the uncertainty of the inflation trend and the risk of a \"hard landing\" for the US economy also make the Fed's subsequent shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the effects of the \"combination punch\" between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. The more important difference is that, judging from the scale of reverse repurchase agreements, the liquidity in the US financial market is already excessively abundant. Coupled with the possible decline in the Treasury's general deposit scale and the early launch of the SRF tool, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet on market liquidity this time may not be as great as in the past.</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the window of opportunity for the shrinking balance sheet to end may lie between the end of the Fed's current rate hike and the next interest rate cut.</b>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated in its past balance sheet operations that the federal funds target rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance, implying that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are merely auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the Federal Reserve's current round of rate hike may end in mid-2023. If downward pressure on the US economy increases later, the Federal Reserve will stop tightening and may even turn to easing again. At that time, in order to avoid sending different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and in order to maintain the main position of interest rates in monetary policy, shrinking balance sheet will most likely also \"back down\".</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be significantly disrupted in the early stages of a shrinking balance sheet, asset prices may still experience huge fluctuations.</b>Since the Federal Reserve announced the impending start of a shrinking balance sheet at its interest rate meeting in early May, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to over 3% at one point. In particular, the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped from 0.07% on May 4 to 0.34% on May 10 (while the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds was only -0.90% on March 1), reflecting the market's further factoring in the impact of shrinking balance sheet. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>Fluctuations above 103 caused a sharp drop in the exchange rates of most non-US currencies. US stocks also saw a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key level of 4,000. Therefore,<b>In terms of its impact on asset prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet should not be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b>International geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, US inflationary pressures are exceeding expectations, downward pressure on the US economy is exceeding expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy tightening is exceeding expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's shrinking balance sheet: What's different this time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/70\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">钟正生经济分析 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-13 12:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's Note:</b>In May 2022, the US CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations and further highlighting the necessity for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. Since the Federal Reserve officially began reducing its balance sheet in June, money market interest rates have remained relatively stable overall, but the combined impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices remains a concern.<b>Core Points</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet starting June 1, with plans to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month, increasing to $95 billion three months later. How does this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet differ from previous ones? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to a lack of effective references, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow.<b>2）</b>To avoid sending different policy signals at the same time as interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule in August 2019, two months ahead of schedule.</p><p><b>The macroeconomic context for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction this time is different, especially regarding inflation.</b>Compared to 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet is different from previous ones, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank by approximately 15.7% over the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019. According to the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet plan, the Fed's balance sheet will decrease by the same percentage in about 16-17 months (around October 2023).<b>Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve may demonstrate greater flexibility during this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>Currently, the US employment situation remains relatively strong. If inflationary pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its balance sheet reduction pace, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021.<b>on the other hand</b>Considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have a certain degree of substitution. If inflationary pressures in the United States ease, the Federal Reserve may slow down its balance sheet reduction pace in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" for the economy.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet structure and policy tools have undergone significant changes, especially the reverse repurchase agreement on the liability side and the significant increase in the size and proportion of general deposits of the Treasury Department. This means that shrinking balance sheet may have a relatively low impact on liquidity. First,</b>From the asset side, the proportion of MBS, whose scale changes are subject to significant uncertainty, has decreased, reducing the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Second</b>The significant increase in the size of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit of interest rates mean that market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker buffer against the liquidity shock of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third</b>As U.S. fiscal policy gradually normalizes, the Treasury's general deposits may slowly fall back to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year, thereby releasing some liquidity to the market and mitigating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>Fourth</b>The introduction of standing repurchase facilities can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence, and reduce the probability of liquidity shortages.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be significantly disrupted in the early stages of the shrinking balance sheet, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet on asset prices should not be underestimated.</b>。 Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to over 3% at one point. In particular, the real interest rate has returned from -0.90% on March 1 to 0.34% on May 10, reflecting the market further factoring in the influence of shrinking balance sheet. The rise in US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the correction in US stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve released a statement from its May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it would begin a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, with a plan to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month and $95 billion per month after three months. This is in line with the discussions in the March meeting minutes, but it did not specify the end of the shrinking balance sheet, only indicating that the pace of shrinking balance sheet would be slowed down when it was close to reaching a \"sufficient level\". How does this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet differ from previous ones? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>A Review of the Last Round of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Normalization</b></p><p>Following the outbreak of the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve introduced a series of unconventional monetary policy tools, such as zero interest rates and quantitative easing, to cope with the economic recession. As the U.S. economy stabilized and recovered, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and began its shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to review the previous round of monetary policy normalization by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Federal Reserve's last round of monetary policy normalization began in May 2013. In a speech, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that \"if the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Fed may begin to gradually slow down its asset purchases at a future meeting,\" sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to insufficient communication with the market, financial markets experienced significant volatility, known as a \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve announced a Taper timetable at its interest rate meeting, which included monthly tapering and ultimately ending QE from January to October 2014. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate hike since the financial crisis, but only scratched the surface after only 25 basis points of rate hike. It did not begin its second rate hike until December 2016, and subsequently raised policy interest rates.</p><p><b>The focus should be on shrinking balance sheet operations during the previous round of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy normalization.</b>As the Federal Reserve's rate hike process deepens, shrinking balance sheet has also been put on the agenda. Starting in October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS by $6 billion and $4 billion respectively per month, and increase them by $6 billion and $4 billion every three months over the next 12 months. It wasn't until October 2018, a year later, that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet rate peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion in Treasury Bond + $20 billion in MBS). This may reflect,<b>Due to a lack of effective references, the Federal Reserve operated more cautiously in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Fed preferred to mitigate the impact of liquidity tightening on financial markets through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet ahead of schedule in August 2019.</b>At its July 2019 policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop shrinking balance sheet starting in August of that year, a move two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet at the time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid interest rate cuts being carried out simultaneously with shrinking balance sheet and sending different policy signals.</b>At its August 2019 policy meeting, in response to low inflation and pressure from slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% reduction in the target federal funds rate. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed out, the target federal funds rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are merely auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when downward pressure on the economy increases and policy interest rates need to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet should \"give way\" to interest rate cuts.</p><p><b>Second, the money market is beginning to experience a liquidity shortage.</b>Following the global financial crisis, with the launch of three rounds of quantitative easing (QE), the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism has shifted from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor System\" to an unconventional \"interest rate Floor System.\" In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the reserve requirement ratio (IOR) is the upper limit of the interest rate, while the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operation rate is the lower limit. When liquidity is ample, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will operate between the two. However, starting in mid-2019, as liquidity continued to shrink, Federal Funds rate began to break through the IOR, which is the upper limit, and \"cash shortage\" events occurred frequently, gradually bringing the \"interest rate floor\" system to the brink of failure. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July 2019 specifically mentioned that the reduction in reserves brought about by shrinking balance sheet led to significant fluctuations in short-term interest rates, which also indicated that liquidity in the US money market had begun to run short at that time. In its statement in October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Fed would conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Despite liquidity shortages in the later stages of the previous shrinking balance sheet, the US stock market remained relatively strong throughout the shrinking balance sheet and was not significantly impacted.</b>In the nearly one year since the start of the last shrinking balance sheet, the U.S. stock market has continued its previous upward trend, with the S&P 500 rising 15.2% from early October 2017 to the end of September 2018. Although the stock market experienced a brief correction afterward, it was mainly due to weakening fundamentals, with the US manufacturing PMI beginning to decline significantly in the fourth quarter of 2018. Starting in early 2019, as the Federal Reserve continued to release dovish signals, US stocks began to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet are different.</b></p><p>Looking at the two main aspects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focus—growth and employment—compared to the start of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macroeconomic context for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction this time is different, especially regarding inflation.</b>Unlike the low inflation and low unemployment rate in early 2017, the United States currently has a lower unemployment rate but higher inflation, given that the labor force participation rate has not yet fully recovered. In March 2022, the US CPI reached 8.5% year-on-year, a new high in nearly 40 years. Furthermore, impacted by short-term factors such as declining demand for inventory replenishment and a significant increase in the trade deficit, the US GDP declined by 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The backdrop of high inflation determined that the pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet was different this time.</b>After then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Fed did not truly begin Taper until the end of October 2014. More than a year later, the Fed began rate hike, and the time lag between the start of Taper and shrinking balance sheet reached 46 months. Moreover, when the balance sheet reduction began, the US federal benchmark interest rate had already reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in order to cope with the increasing inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet is faster than in the past.</b>Since the Taper signal was released in the second half of 2021, the Federal Reserve's process of normalizing monetary policy has been accelerating. In this round of Federal Reserve monetary policy normalization, the time gap between the initiation of Taper and shrinking balance sheet is only about six months, and the pace of tightening is much faster than before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting indicated that it will begin its shrinking balance sheet on June 1, planning to reduce its asset holdings by $47.5 billion per month, and three months later, it plans to reduce its asset holdings by $95 billion per month. Not only was the initial size and pace of shrinking balance sheet much higher than the previous round ($10 billion per month, increasing by $10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet was also higher than the previous round of $50 billion per month.<b>Changes in the size and pace of shrinking balance sheet will cause the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to decline at a faster rate in this round: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet decreased by approximately $700 billion, a decrease of 15.7%. According to the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet plan, the Fed's balance sheet will decrease by the same percentage in about 16-17 months (around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve may demonstrate greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>The employment situation in the United States remains relatively strong, with the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits at historically low levels. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its balance sheet reduction pace, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021.<b>on the other hand</b>Considering the impact of \"temporary factors\" such as a decline in inventory investment and a surge in imports, the US economy declined by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter year-on-year in the first quarter. Whether these shocks are temporary remains controversial, but concerns about a \"hard landing\" for the U.S. economy are undoubtedly growing in both the market and the Federal Reserve. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are somewhat substitutable, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effects of the combination of measures. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States ease in the future, the Federal Reserve may slow down its balance sheet reduction pace to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This also aligns with the Federal Reserve's vague statement at its May policy meeting that it would slow the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it was close to reaching a 'sufficient level'.</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet structure and policy tools differ this time.</b></p><p><b>Studying the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from discussing its balance sheet.</b>From the asset side, the Federal Reserve's assets mainly consist of securities assets, namely various Treasury Bond and MBS purchased during its balance sheet expansion, accounting for nearly 95%. From the liability side, the Federal Reserve's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, Treasury deposits, and reverse repurchase agreements, with these four items accounting for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, which account for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, Treasury Bond’s share of the Federal Reserve’s total assets rose from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and its current holdings amount to approximately $5.7 trillion. The proportion of MBS in the Federal Reserve's total assets decreased from 39.7% to 30.4%, but its size still exceeded $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared to 2017, the differences on the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are more pronounced, with the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements held by the Treasury Department increasing significantly.</b>When the last round of shrinking balance sheet began in October 2017, the Treasury's general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements among the Federal Reserve's liabilities were $185.1 billion and $374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%. This led to the decline in liabilities during the last round of balance sheet reduction being mainly achieved through a decrease in reserves. However, as of now, the scale and proportion of the Ministry of Finance's general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements have both increased significantly. Among them, the scale of the Ministry of Finance's general deposits has reached US$957.4 billion, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached US$2.09 trillion, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two has approached the scale of reserves.</p><p><b>Given the significant changes in the Federal Reserve's current balance sheet structure and policy tools, the impact of shrinking balance sheet on liquidity may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>First,</b>，<b>From the asset side, the decrease in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty during balance sheet reduction.</b>For Treasury Bond, since its expiration date and scale are known, the pace of Treasury Bond' share reduction is basically certain. However, there may be some uncertainty surrounding MBS's share reduction process. This mainly stems from: 1) MBS has the possibility of early repayment, allowing borrowers to choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when selling their home or refinancing their mortgage; 2) From an operational perspective, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is relatively long. The time interval between receiving the principal (resulting in a decrease in holdings) and the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in holdings) can be as long as three months. During the last round of balance sheet reduction, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the scale of its reduction was relatively higher, reaching two-thirds of the scale of Treasury Bond' reduction. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Fed's maximum reduction in holdings was $60 billion per month in Treasury Bond and $35 billion in MBS. MBS accounted for a lower proportion of the reduction, which means that the uncertainty of this round of shrinking balance sheet is relatively lower.</p><p><b>Secondly, from the liability side, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that there is ample liquidity in the market, which can mitigate the liquidity shock brought about by shrinking balance sheet.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool functions similarly to the People's Bank of my country's reverse repurchase tool. Both aim to recover excess liquidity in the market by selling securities to financial institutions and agreeing to repurchase them after a certain period of time. Therefore, during periods of excess liquidity and low market interest rates, non-bank financial institutions choose to invest funds in the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase agreements in order to obtain stable returns. The reverse repurchase agreement rate thus becomes the lower limit of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Corridor under the sufficient reserve system, and the amount of reverse repurchase tools used also reflects the ample level of market liquidity to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Why is the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements currently much higher than at the start of the last shrinking balance sheet? First</b>For banks, holding reserves involves costs. As banks increase their reserves, their overall balance sheet size will also expand, leading to higher capital regulatory requirements. Therefore, banks' willingness to hold reserves will not increase indefinitely.<b>Secondly</b>Banks earn from holding reserves through arbitrage transactions, which involve borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repurchase rate (between the ON RRP rate and the reserve requirement rate) and depositing these funds with the Federal Reserve to earn interest calculated at the reserve requirement rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the return ON arbitrage trading. Before and after the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this interest rate spread remained at 25 basis points, while it is currently only 10 basis points. This has undoubtedly reduced banks' arbitrage returns, thereby limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. As a result, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, which can only directly deposit this portion of funds with the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also indicates that liquidity is now more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve interest rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower limits of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculated the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates, respectively, representing the distance between the upper and lower limits of short-term interest rates. It can be seen that before and after the start of the last round of Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR was smaller, indicating that short-term interest rates were closer to the upper limit at that time; Currently, the difference between the EFFR and ON RRP rates is smaller, and short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit, reflecting that liquidity is now more abundant than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was mostly bank reserves. However, the current surge in the size of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) is closer to the lower limit of interest rates all indicate that the liquidity of both banks and non-bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Federal Reserve withdraws liquidity through shrinking balance sheet, the size of bonds held on the asset side of its balance sheet decreases; On the liability side, a corresponding reduction can be achieved by reducing the size of reverse repurchase agreements (rather than reducing the size of reserves as in the previous round of shrinking balance sheet), thereby reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the Ministry of Finance's general deposits will also release some liquidity.</b>。 The high growth in the Ministry of Finance's general deposits is another important feature of this balance sheet reduction. Similar to the role of my country's fiscal deposits, changes in the U.S. Treasury's general deposits can also disrupt market liquidity. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the size of the Treasury's general deposits (TGA) on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet fluctuated to some extent, the total size remained basically below $400 billion. After the outbreak of the pandemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of funds through the issuance of Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, reaching a record high of nearly $1.8 trillion at one point. In the first quarter of 2021, with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill, the size of the TGA declined rapidly. In 2021, the U.S. government debt reached its ceiling, making it difficult for the Treasury Department to continue financing through bond issuance. The TGA account balance continued to decline, once falling to less than $60 billion, releasing a large amount of liquidity into the market in the process. However, after the U.S. government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond, and by the end of April, the size of the TGA account had exceeded $900 billion.<b>Looking ahead, US fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the Treasury's general deposits may slowly fall back to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of the year, which will release some liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity shock brought about by shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the introduction of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has also reduced the probability of liquidity shortages.</b>Starting in mid-2019, signs of a liquidity shortage emerged in the US financial markets, with spot interest rates continuously breaking through the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. In September 2019, influenced by factors such as tax payments and Treasury Bond issuance, the EFFR was once 20 basis points higher than the reserve requirement rate. In March 2020, the US financial markets experienced another \"cash crunch,\" with the three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents future borrowing costs, rising to its highest level since 2008, and the New York Federal Reserve's repurchase operations being continuously oversubscribed. The frequent liquidity shortages have drawn the attention of the Federal Reserve: In July 2021, in order to address the liquidity shortages that may arise during the normalization of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve \"planned ahead\" and launched the SRF tool. This tool allows qualified traders to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve at a certain interest rate (usually set at the ceiling of the federal funds target rate) using Treasury Bond, ABS, or MBS as collateral.</p><p><b>SRF tools mainly work through two channels: First,</b>As mentioned earlier, the interest rate on reserves (IOR) only acts as a cap on interest rates when liquidity is ample. When liquidity begins to tighten, some financial institutions are willing to borrow funds from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing short-term interest rates to break through the IOR, which is the upper limit of interest rates. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thereby reducing upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates through repurchase operations before the SRF tool was launched in September 2019.<b>Second</b>The introduction of the SRF tool has enhanced market confidence in short-term interest rate stability, thereby reducing the possibility of significant fluctuations in market interest rates. Therefore, this tool can ensure that the spot rate operates within the target range of the federal funds rate.</p><p><b>In addition, the usage of SRF tools is also an important window for observing the liquidity situation in financial markets.</b>When financial market liquidity can meet actual needs, financial institutions can raise funds smoothly through the market, and the use of SRF tools should be relatively low. When financial markets experience a liquidity shortage, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF tools will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>In general, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that began in 2017, the increased inflationary pressures may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet this time. However, the uncertainty of the inflation trend and the risk of a \"hard landing\" for the US economy also make the Fed's subsequent shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the effects of the \"combination punch\" between rate hike and shrinking balance sheet. The more important difference is that, judging from the scale of reverse repurchase agreements, the liquidity in the US financial market is already excessively abundant. Coupled with the possible decline in the Treasury's general deposit scale and the early launch of the SRF tool, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet on market liquidity this time may not be as great as in the past.</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the window of opportunity for the shrinking balance sheet to end may lie between the end of the Fed's current rate hike and the next interest rate cut.</b>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated in its past balance sheet operations that the federal funds target rate is its primary means of adjusting its monetary policy stance, implying that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are merely auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the Federal Reserve's current round of rate hike may end in mid-2023. If downward pressure on the US economy increases later, the Federal Reserve will stop tightening and may even turn to easing again. At that time, in order to avoid sending different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and in order to maintain the main position of interest rates in monetary policy, shrinking balance sheet will most likely also \"back down\".</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be significantly disrupted in the early stages of a shrinking balance sheet, asset prices may still experience huge fluctuations.</b>Since the Federal Reserve announced the impending start of a shrinking balance sheet at its interest rate meeting in early May, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to over 3% at one point. In particular, the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped from 0.07% on May 4 to 0.34% on May 10 (while the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds was only -0.90% on March 1), reflecting the market's further factoring in the impact of shrinking balance sheet. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>Fluctuations above 103 caused a sharp drop in the exchange rates of most non-US currencies. US stocks also saw a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key level of 4,000. Therefore,<b>In terms of its impact on asset prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet should not be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b>International geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, US inflationary pressures are exceeding expectations, downward pressure on the US economy is exceeding expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy tightening is exceeding expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243019507","content_text":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得警惕。核心观点2022年5月4日，美联储宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后增加到950亿美元。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。回顾上一轮美联储的缩表过程，可以发现：1）由于缺乏有效的参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，美联储并不急于大规模缩减其资产负债表，从引导紧缩到缩表步伐都相对缓慢；2）为了避免降息与缩表同时进行发出不同的政策信号，并缓解金融市场流动性短缺的情况，美联储于2019年8月提前停止了缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年相比，目前美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。这决定了本次美联储缩表的目的与以往不同，且节奏相对更快。我们估算，2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将表现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍较为强劲，若通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到加息与缩表具有一定替代性。若美国通胀压力有所缓和，为了避免经济“硬着陆”，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐。目前美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具出现了较大变化，尤其是负债端逆回购协议、财政部一般存款的规模和占比明显提升，这使得缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。一是，从资产端来看，规模变化存在较大不确定性的MBS占比下降，使得缩表的不确定性降低。二是，逆回购协议规模大幅上升、短端利率更接近利率下限，意味着市场流动性比上一轮缩表开始前更为充裕，为缩表的流动性冲击提供了更厚的缓冲垫。三是，随着美国财政政策逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的影响。四是，常备回购便利工具的推出可以在一定条件下提供流动性，并稳定市场信心，降低流动性短缺发生的概率。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。自5月美联储议息会议来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其实际利率从3月1日的-0.90%回归至5月10日的0.34%，即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。美债利率的攀升成为美股调整的重要催化。2022年5月4日，美联储公布5月FOMC议息会议声明，宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。这符合3月会议纪要讨论结果，但并未明确缩表终点，只表示将在快达到“充足水平”时减缓缩表节奏。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。一上一轮美联储货币政策正常化回顾2008年全球金融危机爆发后，为应对经济衰退，美联储推出了零利率、量化宽松等一系列非常规货币政策工具。而随着美国经济趋于稳定复苏，美联储于2013年末正式启动Taper，并在2017年10月开启缩表。而这也是美联储实施非常规货币政策以来唯一的一次缩表操作。因此，有必要对上一轮美联储货币政策正常化进行一定的回顾。美联储上一轮货币政策的正常化始于2013年5月，时任美联储主席伯南克在一次演讲中表示“如果发现美国就业市场持续好转，美联储可能在今后的某一次会议中开始逐步放慢购买资产的速度”，向市场传递了Taper信号。但由于与市场沟通并不充分，金融市场出现了显著波动，即“缩减恐慌（Taper Tantrum）”。2013年12月，美联储议息会议宣布Taper时间表，2014年1-10月逐月削减并最终结束QE。2015年12月，美联储开启了金融危机后的首次加息，但在仅加息25BP后就“浅尝辄止”,直至2016年12月才开始第二次加息，并在此后连续上调政策利率。重点观察上一轮美联储货币政策正常化中的缩表操作。随着美联储加息进程的深入，缩表也被提上日程。2017年10月开始，美联储决定以每月60亿美元、40亿美元的速度缩减其持有的国债、MBS，并在之后的12个月内按照每三个月增加60亿美元、40亿美元的速度递增。直到一年后的2018年10月，美联储缩表速度才达到每月500亿美元（300亿美元国债+200亿美元MBS）的峰值。这或许反映出，由于缺乏有效参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，当时的美联储更希望通过缓慢的、渐进式的缩表，减轻流动性收紧对金融市场的冲击。不过，2019年8月美联储提前停止了缩表。2019年7月议息会议上，美联储宣布将从当年8月起停止缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。我们认为，当时美联储停止缩表，主要有两方面原因： 一是，为了避免降息与缩表同时进行、发出不同政策信号。2019年8月议息会议上，为了应对低迷的通胀以及全球增长放缓的压力，美联储宣布将联邦基金目标利率下调0.25%。正如美联储反复指出的，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段。言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。因此，当经济下行压力加大，政策利率需要下调时，缩表要“让位”于降息。二是，货币市场开始出现流动性紧缺的情况。全球金融危机后伴随三轮QE的推出，美联储的利率调控机制已经从危机前的“利率走廊”体系（Corridor System）转变为非常规的“利率地板”体系（Floor System）。在“利率地板”体系中，存款准备金利率（IOR）作为利率上限，隔夜逆回购协议（ONRRP）操作利率则为利率下限，在流动性充裕时，联邦基金利率（EFFR）将在二者之间运行。但自2019年中开始，随着流动性的不断缩减，联邦基金利率开始突破作为上限的IOR，“钱荒”事件频发，“利率地板”体系逐渐走向失效边缘。2019年7月美联储议息会议纪要中特别提到，缩表带来的准备金减少导致短端利率大幅波动，也表明当时美国货币市场流动性已开始出现短缺。而在2019年10月美联储的声明中表示，为确保准备金充足，美联储将进行定期回购操作，以向市场注入流动性，降低货币市场风险。虽然上一轮缩表后期出现流动性紧缺，但整个缩表期间美国股市表现仍然较为强劲，并未受到明显冲击。上一轮缩表开始后的近一年时间里，美国股市延续了之前的上涨趋势，2017年10月初至2018年9月末，标普500指数涨幅达到15.2%。虽然之后股市出现短暂回调，但主要是由基本面的转弱所致，美国制造业PMI自2018年四季度开始明显回落。2019年初开始，随着美联储不断释放“鸽派”信号，美股也开始反弹。二本次美联储缩表的背景与目的不同从美联储货币政策关注的两大方面——增长与就业来看，与2017年10月开启缩表相比，本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年初的低通胀、低失业率不同，目前在劳动参与率尚未完全恢复的背景下，美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。2022年3月美国CPI同比达到8.5%，创下近40年来新高。并且，在补库存需求下滑、贸易逆差大幅增长等短期因素冲击下，2022年一季度美国GDP环比折年率下滑1.4%，经济开始出现滞胀迹象。高通胀的背景决定了本次美联储缩表的节奏不同。2013年5月时任美联储主席伯南克释放Taper信号后，2013年末美联储才真正开启Taper，直到2014年10月Taper才结束，此后又过了一年多的时间美联储才开始加息，从开始Taper到缩表之间的时滞更是达到了46个月，且开始缩表时的美国联邦基准利率已经达到1.25%-1.50%。但是，为了应对不断加剧的通胀压力，本轮美联储缩表的节奏要快于以往。从2021年下半年释放Taper信号开始，美联储的货币政策正常化进程便不断加速。本轮美联储货币政策正常化中，从开启Taper到缩表之间的时间间隔仅有半年左右，紧缩节奏较之前大大加快。美联储5月议息会议纪要表示将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。不仅初始缩表规模、节奏远高于上一轮（100亿美元/月，每三个月增加100亿美元），每月最大缩表规模亦高于上一轮的每月500亿美元。缩表规模与节奏的变化将使得本轮美联储资产负债表将以更快的比例下降：2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约7000亿美元，降幅15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将呈现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍然较为强劲，失业率、领取失业金人数等均处于历史较低位置。因此，若美国通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月其加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到美国经济在库存投资回落、进口大增等“暂时性因素”的影响下，一季度环比折年率下滑1.4%。不管对于这些是否属于暂时性冲击仍存争议，但市场和美联储对美国经济“硬着陆”的担忧无疑都是在增加的。况且，加息与缩表具有一定替代性，美联储亦会细加权衡组合拳的效应。因此，若后续美国通胀压力有所缓和，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐，以减小货币政策紧缩对经济的冲击。这也符合美联储5月议息会议上“将在快达到‘充足水平’时减缓缩表节奏”的模糊表述。三本次美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具不同研究美联储的缩表操作离不开对其资产负债表的讨论。从资产端来看，美联储的资产主要是持有的证券资产，即其在扩表时购买的各类国债、MBS等，占比接近95%；从负债端来看，美联储的负债包括现金、银行准备金、财政部存款以及逆回购协议，以上四项占比超过99%，尤其是银行准备金，占比超过40%。从资产端来看，与2017年10月相比，美联储持有的国债占比明显提升，而MBS占比相对较低。其中，国债在美联储总资产中的占比由2017年10月的55.3%上升至4月末的64.5%，目前持有规模约5.7万亿美元。而MBS在美联储总资产中的占比则由39.7%下降至30.4%，但规模也超过了2.7万亿美元。与2017年相比，当前美联储资产负债表负债端的差异更为明显，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比明显提升。2017年10月上一轮缩表开始时，美联储负债中的财政部一般存款、逆回购协议规模分别为1851亿美元、3749亿美元，占总负债的比重为4.2%、7.9%，而银行准备金占比超过50%，这也导致上一轮缩表时负债端的下降主要通过准备金规模下降实现的。但截至目前，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比均有明显提升，其中财政部一般存款规模达到9574亿美元，占比10.8%，逆回购协议规模更是达到2.09万亿美元，占比23.5%，二者之和已经接近准备金规模。由于美联储目前资产负债表结构以及政策工具均出现了较大变化，缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。 一是，从资产端来看，MBS占比下降使得缩表时的不确定性降低。对于国债来说，由于其到期日、到期规模可知，因而国债的减持步调基本是确定的。但是，MBS的减持过程可能存在一定不确定在。这主要来源于：1） MBS存在提前偿付的可能性，借款人在出售房屋或为抵押贷款再融资时，可以选择随时偿还任何额外的抵押贷款本金；2）从操作流程上看，MBS再投资的时间间隔较长，从收到本金（导致持有量减少）到相应的新 MBS 被添加到资产负债表（导致持有量增加）之间的时间间隔最长可达三个月 。在上一轮缩表时，MBS的占比较高，减持规模相对更高，达到了国债减持规模的2/3。但今年5月美联储议息会议显示，本轮缩表中美联储减持规模最多为每月600亿美元国债、350亿美元MBS，MBS在减持中的占比更低，这意味着本轮缩表的不确定性相对更低。二是，从负债端看，逆回购协议规模上升意味着市场上的流动性较为充裕，可以缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。美联储的逆回购工具与我国央行正回购的功能类似，都是通过向金融机构出售证券，并约定在一段时间后回购，来达到回收市场上多余流动性的目的。因此，在流动性过剩、市场利率较低的时期，非银金融机构为了获取稳定的收益，会选择将资金投向美联储的逆回购协议，逆回购协议利率由此成为充足准备金制度下，美联储利率走廊的下限，逆回购工具的使用量也在一定程度上反映了市场流动性的充裕程度。为何目前逆回购协议的占比均远高于上一轮缩表开始时？首先，对于银行来说，持有准备金是存在成本的。银行持有的准备金规模增加后，其整体资产负债表规模也将扩大，进而带来更高的资本监管要求，因此银行持有准备金的意愿并不会无限增长。其次，银行持有准备金的收益来自于套利交易，即按照市场回购利率（介于ON RRP 利率与存款准备金利率之间）从非银金融机构借入资金，并将这部分资金存入美联储，获得按存款准备金利率计算的利息。因此，存款准备金利率和ON RRP利率之间的价差衡量了套利交易的收益。上一轮缩表开始前后，这一利差保持在25BP，而目前仅为10BP，这无疑使得银行的套利收益下降，进而限制了其从非银金融机构借入资金的意愿。因而，大量的流动性淤积在非银金融机构中，非银金融机构只能直接将这部分资金存入美联储，导致目前逆回购协议的占比明显提升。目前联邦基金利率（EFFR）的相对位置同样表明，目前流动性较上轮缩表开始时更为充裕。如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）分别是联邦基金利率的上限和下限。我们分别计算了IOR与EFFR之差和EFFR与ON RRP利率之差，代表短期利率距离利率上限与下限的距离。可以发现，在上一轮美联储缩表开始前后，IOR与EFFR之间的差值更小，代表当时短端利率距离上限更为接近；而在目前，EFFR与ON RRP 利率的差值更小，短端利率距离下限更为接近，反映出的即是目前的流动性较上轮缩表开始时更加充裕。上一轮缩表开始时，美联储资产负债表负债端多为银行准备金，但目前逆回购协议规模的大增、以及联邦基金利率（EFFR）更接近利率下限，均表明无论是银行还是非银金融机构的流动性，均较上一轮缩表开始时更为充裕。因此，当美联储通过缩表回收流动性时，其资产负债表资产端持有的债券规模下降；而对于负债端来说，可通过逆回购协议规模的下降（而非像上一轮缩表一样，通过准备金规模的下降），实现相应的缩减，进而降低缩表对于准备金及市场流动性的冲击。三是，财政部一般存款规模的下降也将释放一定流动性。财政部一般存款规模的高增也是本次缩表时的另一项重要特点。与我国财政存款的作用类似，美国财政部一般存款的变动也会对市场流动性形成扰动。新冠疫情爆发前，美联储资产负债表中财政部一般存款（TGA）规模虽然有一定波动，但总规模基本保持在4000亿美元以下；疫情爆发后，美国财政部通过发行国债大量融资，TGA规模迅速上升，一度达到近1.8万亿美元的天量。2021年一季度，随着1.9万亿美元纾困法案的推出，TGA规模迅速下降。2021年中美国政府债务触及上限，财政部难以继续通过发债融资，TGA账户余额不断下降，一度降至不到600亿美元，在此过程中向市场释放了大量流动性。但2021年12月美国政府债务上限再次调升后，财政部通过发行国债迅速重建了其现金储备，4月末TGA账户规模已超过9000亿美元。往后看，美国财政政策也将逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而会向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。四是，常备回购便利（Standing Repo Facility，SRF）工具的推出也降低了流动性短缺发生的概率。2019年中开始，美国金融市场流动性便出现短缺迹象，即期利率不断突破联邦基金目标利率上限。2019年9月，在缴税及国债发行等因素的影响下，EFFR一度高于存款准备金利率20BP；2020年3月美国金融市场再度爆发“钱荒”，代表未来资金借贷成本的3个月FRA/OIS利差一度升至2008年以来高点，纽约联储回购操作连续遭超额认购。频繁发生的流动性短缺状况引发了美联储的关注：2021年7月，为了解决货币政策正常化过程中可能出现的流动性短缺问题，美联储“未雨绸缪”的推出了SRF工具。该工具允许合格交易商以国债、ABS或MBS为抵押品，以一定利率（通常被设定为联邦基金目标利率的上限）从美联储借入美元。SRF工具主要通过两个渠道发挥作用：一是，如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）只有在流动性充裕的情况下才会发挥利率上限的作用。当流动性开始紧张时，部分金融机构愿意以高于IOR的水平从市场借入资金，导致短端利率突破作为利率上限的IOR。SRF工具的功能简单来说便是，以一定的利率向市场释放流动性，进而降低利率的上行压力，正如2019年9月SRF工具尚未推出时，美联储通过回购操作压低短期利率一样。二是，SRF工具的推出增强了市场对于短期利率稳定的信心，进而降低了市场利率大幅波动的可能性。因此，该工具可以保证即期利率运行在联邦基金目标利率范围内。另外，SRF工具的使用量也是观察金融市场流动性状况的重要窗口：在金融市场流动性可以满足实际需求时，金融机构可通过市场顺利融资，SRF工具使用量应相对较低；而当金融市场流动性出现短缺时，金融机构会转而向美联储寻求流动性支持，SRF工具使用量也会相应上升。四小结总的来说，与2017年开启的缩表相比，通胀压力的加剧导致本次美联储缩表的节奏可能更快，但通胀走势的不确定性、以及美国经济“硬着陆”的风险，也使得美联储后续缩表的灵活性更强。与此同时，美联储也需细加权衡相机观察加息与缩表“组合拳”的效应。更重要的区别在于，从逆回购协议规模来看，目前美国金融市场的流动性已过度充裕，叠加后续财政部一般存款规模可能下降以及SRF工具的提前推出，本次美联储缩表对市场流动性的冲击或不及以往。 往后看，缩表结束的时间窗口或许在美联储本轮加息结束到下次降息之间。美联储在以往的资产负债表操作中曾多次声明，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段，言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。根据CME FedWatch Tool显示的数据，美联储本轮加息或将于2023年中结束。一旦之后美国经济下行压力加大，美联储将不再紧缩甚至再次转向宽松。届时，为了避免缩表与降息发出不同的政策信号，为了保持利率手段在货币政策中的主要地位，届时缩表大概率亦将“偃旗息鼓”。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但资产价格仍然可能出现巨大波动。自5月初美联储议息会议宣布即将开启缩表以来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其是10年期美债实际利率从5月4日的0.07%蹿升至5月10日的0.34%（而3月1日10年期美债实际利率仅为-0.90%），即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。同期，美元指数在103以上高位震荡，导致多数非美货币汇率急跌。美股也出现了明显回调，标普500指数一度跌至4000这一关键点位之下。因此，从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。风险提示：国际地缘冲突具有不确定性，美国通胀压力超预期，美国经济下行压力超预期，美联储政策紧缩力度超预期等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051546688,"gmtCreate":1654730514844,"gmtModify":1676535498085,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051546688","repostId":"2242418978","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2242418978","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1654729288,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242418978?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-09 07:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down with U.S. Treasury Yields above 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242418978","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Chip stocks tumble after Citi sounds alarm on Intel* Investors cautious ahead of CPI data on Frida","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Chip stocks tumble after Citi sounds alarm on Intel</p><p>* Investors cautious ahead of CPI data on Friday</p><p>U.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday as Treasury yields rose above the psychologically important level of 3% and oil prices jumped, fanning worries about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.</p><p>The technology sector  fell, with shares of Intel Corp dropping after Citi Research said the chipmaker could pre-announce weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. Other chip shares also declined.</p><p>Brent crude oil prices rose above $123 a barrel and hit a 13-week high, while the Dow Jones transportation average significantly underperformed the other main indexes on the day.</p><p>&#34;The 10-year Treasury yield is up over 3%. That&#39;s probably part of why we&#39;re seeing the drawdown in the market today,&#34; said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p><p>&#34;That level is what people are focused on because it represents an increase in interest rates and a reflection of inflation and market volatility.&#34;</p><p>U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose  after the U.S. Treasury Department saw tepid demand for a sale of 10-year notes.</p><p>According to preliminary data, the S&amp;P 500 lost 45.18 points, or 1.09%, to end at 4,115.50 points, while the Nasdaq Composite    lost 90.15 points, or 0.74%, to 12,085.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 273.57 points, or 0.82%, to 32,906.57.</p><p>Investors are also cautious ahead of U.S. consumer price data on Friday morning. The report is expected to show that inflation remained elevated in May, though core consumer prices - which exclude the volatile food and energy sectors - likely ticked down on an annual basis.</p><p>&#34;People looking for the peak inflation narrative keep getting hit in the face every day as energy goes up,&#34; said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.</p><p>The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at each of its June and July meetings, with a similar move also likely in September, in an effort to combat inflation.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down with U.S. Treasury Yields above 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down with U.S. Treasury Yields above 3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-09 07:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Chip stocks tumble after Citi sounds alarm on Intel</p><p>* Investors cautious ahead of CPI data on Friday</p><p>U.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday as Treasury yields rose above the psychologically important level of 3% and oil prices jumped, fanning worries about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.</p><p>The technology sector  fell, with shares of Intel Corp dropping after Citi Research said the chipmaker could pre-announce weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. Other chip shares also declined.</p><p>Brent crude oil prices rose above $123 a barrel and hit a 13-week high, while the Dow Jones transportation average significantly underperformed the other main indexes on the day.</p><p>&#34;The 10-year Treasury yield is up over 3%. That&#39;s probably part of why we&#39;re seeing the drawdown in the market today,&#34; said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p><p>&#34;That level is what people are focused on because it represents an increase in interest rates and a reflection of inflation and market volatility.&#34;</p><p>U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose  after the U.S. Treasury Department saw tepid demand for a sale of 10-year notes.</p><p>According to preliminary data, the S&amp;P 500 lost 45.18 points, or 1.09%, to end at 4,115.50 points, while the Nasdaq Composite    lost 90.15 points, or 0.74%, to 12,085.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 273.57 points, or 0.82%, to 32,906.57.</p><p>Investors are also cautious ahead of U.S. consumer price data on Friday morning. The report is expected to show that inflation remained elevated in May, though core consumer prices - which exclude the volatile food and energy sectors - likely ticked down on an annual basis.</p><p>&#34;People looking for the peak inflation narrative keep getting hit in the face every day as energy goes up,&#34; said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.</p><p>The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at each of its June and July meetings, with a similar move also likely in September, in an effort to combat inflation.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","INTC":"英特尔","BK4529":"IDC概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4575":"芯片概念","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4515":"5G概念","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242418978","content_text":"* Chip stocks tumble after Citi sounds alarm on Intel* Investors cautious ahead of CPI data on FridayU.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday as Treasury yields rose above the psychologically important level of 3% and oil prices jumped, fanning worries about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.The technology sector  fell, with shares of Intel Corp dropping after Citi Research said the chipmaker could pre-announce weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. Other chip shares also declined.Brent crude oil prices rose above $123 a barrel and hit a 13-week high, while the Dow Jones transportation average significantly underperformed the other main indexes on the day.\"The 10-year Treasury yield is up over 3%. That's probably part of why we're seeing the drawdown in the market today,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.\"That level is what people are focused on because it represents an increase in interest rates and a reflection of inflation and market volatility.\"U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose  after the U.S. Treasury Department saw tepid demand for a sale of 10-year notes.According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 45.18 points, or 1.09%, to end at 4,115.50 points, while the Nasdaq Composite    lost 90.15 points, or 0.74%, to 12,085.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 273.57 points, or 0.82%, to 32,906.57.Investors are also cautious ahead of U.S. consumer price data on Friday morning. The report is expected to show that inflation remained elevated in May, though core consumer prices - which exclude the volatile food and energy sectors - likely ticked down on an annual basis.\"People looking for the peak inflation narrative keep getting hit in the face every day as energy goes up,\" said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at each of its June and July meetings, with a similar move also likely in September, in an effort to combat inflation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DJX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"INTC":0.9,"QLD":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".SPX":0.9,"QID":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056652856,"gmtCreate":1655007135275,"gmtModify":1676535547705,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056652856","repostId":"2242306965","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242306965","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655005845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242306965?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-12 11:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242306965","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Investment ThesisSince our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2><b>Investment Thesis</b></h2><p>Since our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.59%, from $92.67 on 17 May 2022 to $109.90 on 9 June 2022. It is evident that the recovery has been swift, given the multiple positive tailwinds in its direction. However, with the shaky Chinese stock market, it is uncertain if the gains could hold and trigger a bull run for BABA.</p><p>However, if we were to split up China&#39;s unrelenting COVID-19 strategies and the potential easing of big tech punishment, BABA&#39;s recovery is almost certain, given its good execution in FQ4&#39;22. That would be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> highly welcomed news, given how dreary the stock market looks right now, given that BABA had recovered 28.04% of its value in the past month compared to S&amp;P 500 Index at 0.42%. Opportune investors would be well advised to take advantage of the current bear market to add more undervalued stocks to their portfolios, since it is entirely possible that the time of maximum pain is over.</p><p>Nevertheless, investors hoping for the revival of ANT IPO would definitely be disappointed, since the Chinese government denied the news report, leading to a -8.13% stock decline from $119.62 on 8 June 2022.</p><h2>BABA Closed Off FY2022 Beautifully Despite Macro Issues</h2><p><b>BABA Revenue and Gross Income</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bddd3fb20de09e66cd1e37175083889\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>In FQ4&#39;22, BABA reported revenues of $32.18B, representing excellent YoY growth of 12.51%, despite the enforced lockdowns in multiple Chinese cities. Though the company&#39;s declining gross margins may worry some investors, we could attribute it partly to the inflation caused by global supply chain issues and China&#39;s Zero Covid Policy and reinvestments into its businesses, and therefore, temporary.</p><p><b>BABA Revenue By Segment</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5beecf897ef22504ee5d40ec234fb7c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>It is evident that BABA&#39;s e-commerce segment continues to be the revenue driver, with 13.1% YoY growth while accounting for the majority of its revenue at 86.6%. Its cloud segment also reported remarkable growth with an increase of 16.7% increase YoY, despite the impact of COVID restrictions and reduced demand from the tech industry.</p><p><b>BABA Net Income and Net Income Margin</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dc8d3c27a586f36ff581a18d27e41c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>BABA&#39;s net income also grew from -$0.82B in FQ4&#39;21 to $0.45B in FQ4&#39;22, thereby improving its net income margins YoY from -2.9% to 2.8%, respectively.</p><p><b>BABA Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF Margins</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4595749199296e7f0bad57afe634ddd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Nonetheless, it is also apparent that the generation of BABA&#39;s previously robust free cash flows is declining, given the decreasing profitability and its payment towards the Anti-monopoly fine at approximately $1.36B. However, since the latter represents the final payment towards the Chinese government, we may expect improved FCF from FQ1&#39;23 onwards.</p><p><b>BABA Operating Expense</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09cc638b935d072afe2e931e33e1995\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Given BABA&#39;s continuous efforts to improve its operating efficiencies by cutting jobs in March 2022 and enhancing its logistical costs, we may also see improved operating margins moving ahead. We can see hints of these improvements in FQ4&#39;22, where the company spent $7.19B in its operating expenses in FQ4&#39;22, representing a 25% decrease QoQ in R&amp;D, Selling/Marketing, and General/Administrative expenses. Assuming that BABA continues on this cost reduction path, we are confident of BABA&#39;s capabilities in improving its profitability moving forward.</p><p><b>BABA Projected Revenue and Net Income</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab3c1f73050159ba48c5b0ef34aaaef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Since our previous analysis in May 2022, BABA&#39;s revenue growth has been upgraded from a CAGR of 7.09% to 9.33%, though its net income is projected to grow even faster from a CAGR of 38.94% to 56.53%. For FY2023, consensus estimates also upgraded its revenue growth to 3.62% YoY, thereby underlining their optimistic view on the recovery of BABA stock and the overall Chinese market. Assuming the stabilization of the Chinese economy as per the government&#39;s intention with a GDP target of 5.5%, we could potentially see an upwards rerating of BABA&#39;s projected revenue and net income growth moving forward. We shall see.</p><h2><b>So, Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h2><p><b>BABA 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30d659fd1b639f4a0b0ba027100df036\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>BABA is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 1.92x and NTM P/E of 14.73x, lower than its 5Y mean of 6.29x and 25.10x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $109.90, down 52.4% from its 52 weeks high of $230.89, though already at a 49.9% premium from its 52 weeks low of $73.28.</p><p><b>BABA 5Y Stock Price</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57cbc8c4a7a3a3577e51256f83f2e97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Nonetheless, given the consensus estimates price target of $170.89 for BABA, investors who add now would still have a 55.5% upside from current prices. It is also evident from the chart that its pre-pandemic prices stand at $170s before rallying to over $300 during the ANT IPO hype.</p><p>Therefore, it is not too late to back up the truck and load up on BABA now.</p><p>Therefore, we <i>rate BABA stock as a Buy.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-12 11:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517691-alibaba-fomo-do-not-miss-boat-again><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment ThesisSince our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.59%, from $92.67 on 17 May 2022 to $109.90 on 9 June 2022. It is evident that the recovery has been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517691-alibaba-fomo-do-not-miss-boat-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517691-alibaba-fomo-do-not-miss-boat-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242306965","content_text":"Investment ThesisSince our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.59%, from $92.67 on 17 May 2022 to $109.90 on 9 June 2022. It is evident that the recovery has been swift, given the multiple positive tailwinds in its direction. However, with the shaky Chinese stock market, it is uncertain if the gains could hold and trigger a bull run for BABA.However, if we were to split up China's unrelenting COVID-19 strategies and the potential easing of big tech punishment, BABA's recovery is almost certain, given its good execution in FQ4'22. That would be one highly welcomed news, given how dreary the stock market looks right now, given that BABA had recovered 28.04% of its value in the past month compared to S&P 500 Index at 0.42%. Opportune investors would be well advised to take advantage of the current bear market to add more undervalued stocks to their portfolios, since it is entirely possible that the time of maximum pain is over.Nevertheless, investors hoping for the revival of ANT IPO would definitely be disappointed, since the Chinese government denied the news report, leading to a -8.13% stock decline from $119.62 on 8 June 2022.BABA Closed Off FY2022 Beautifully Despite Macro IssuesBABA Revenue and Gross IncomeS&P Capital IQIn FQ4'22, BABA reported revenues of $32.18B, representing excellent YoY growth of 12.51%, despite the enforced lockdowns in multiple Chinese cities. Though the company's declining gross margins may worry some investors, we could attribute it partly to the inflation caused by global supply chain issues and China's Zero Covid Policy and reinvestments into its businesses, and therefore, temporary.BABA Revenue By SegmentS&P Capital IQIt is evident that BABA's e-commerce segment continues to be the revenue driver, with 13.1% YoY growth while accounting for the majority of its revenue at 86.6%. Its cloud segment also reported remarkable growth with an increase of 16.7% increase YoY, despite the impact of COVID restrictions and reduced demand from the tech industry.BABA Net Income and Net Income MarginS&P Capital IQBABA's net income also grew from -$0.82B in FQ4'21 to $0.45B in FQ4'22, thereby improving its net income margins YoY from -2.9% to 2.8%, respectively.BABA Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF MarginsS&P Capital IQNonetheless, it is also apparent that the generation of BABA's previously robust free cash flows is declining, given the decreasing profitability and its payment towards the Anti-monopoly fine at approximately $1.36B. However, since the latter represents the final payment towards the Chinese government, we may expect improved FCF from FQ1'23 onwards.BABA Operating ExpenseS&P Capital IQGiven BABA's continuous efforts to improve its operating efficiencies by cutting jobs in March 2022 and enhancing its logistical costs, we may also see improved operating margins moving ahead. We can see hints of these improvements in FQ4'22, where the company spent $7.19B in its operating expenses in FQ4'22, representing a 25% decrease QoQ in R&D, Selling/Marketing, and General/Administrative expenses. Assuming that BABA continues on this cost reduction path, we are confident of BABA's capabilities in improving its profitability moving forward.BABA Projected Revenue and Net IncomeS&P Capital IQSince our previous analysis in May 2022, BABA's revenue growth has been upgraded from a CAGR of 7.09% to 9.33%, though its net income is projected to grow even faster from a CAGR of 38.94% to 56.53%. For FY2023, consensus estimates also upgraded its revenue growth to 3.62% YoY, thereby underlining their optimistic view on the recovery of BABA stock and the overall Chinese market. Assuming the stabilization of the Chinese economy as per the government's intention with a GDP target of 5.5%, we could potentially see an upwards rerating of BABA's projected revenue and net income growth moving forward. We shall see.So, Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?BABA 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQBABA is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 1.92x and NTM P/E of 14.73x, lower than its 5Y mean of 6.29x and 25.10x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $109.90, down 52.4% from its 52 weeks high of $230.89, though already at a 49.9% premium from its 52 weeks low of $73.28.BABA 5Y Stock PriceSeeking AlphaNonetheless, given the consensus estimates price target of $170.89 for BABA, investors who add now would still have a 55.5% upside from current prices. It is also evident from the chart that its pre-pandemic prices stand at $170s before rallying to over $300 during the ANT IPO hype.Therefore, it is not too late to back up the truck and load up on BABA now.Therefore, we rate BABA stock as a Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.6,"BABA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994790190,"gmtCreate":1661689023214,"gmtModify":1676536561298,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994790190","repostId":"1175369432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175369432","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661663001,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175369432?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 13:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Li Auto responds to L9 delivery delay: due to supply delay at Sichuan range extender factory","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175369432","media":"中新经纬","summary":"据悉，理想L9此前预计8月底开始交付。","content":"<p><div>Author: Niu Chaoge On the 28th, regarding the online rumors of a delay in the delivery of the Li Auto L9, Li Auto customer service personnel confirmed, \"Due to power shortages in Sichuan, Li Auto' range extender factory in Mianyang, Sichuan, has experienced supply delays, resulting in a delay in the delivery of the Li Auto L9.\" According to online information, Li Auto released a \"Li Auto L9 Delivery Delay Announcement\" on its official App. \"The delivery delay notice will only be sent to the car owner who placed the order; other users will not receive it,\" the customer service representative said. According to screenshots posted by netizens, for users whose Li Auto App shows delivery within August, delivery is expected to take place between August 30th and September...</p><p><a href=\"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"zxjw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto responds to L9 delivery delay: due to supply delay at Sichuan range extender factory</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto responds to L9 delivery delay: due to supply delay at Sichuan range extender factory\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中新经纬</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-28 13:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Author: Niu Chaoge On the 28th, regarding the online rumors of a delay in the delivery of the Li Auto L9, Li Auto customer service personnel confirmed, \"Due to power shortages in Sichuan, Li Auto' range extender factory in Mianyang, Sichuan, has experienced supply delays, resulting in a delay in the delivery of the Li Auto L9.\" According to online information, Li Auto released a \"Li Auto L9 Delivery Delay Announcement\" on its official App. \"The delivery delay notice will only be sent to the car owner who placed the order; other users will not receive it,\" the customer service representative said. According to screenshots posted by netizens, for users whose Li Auto App shows delivery within August, delivery is expected to take place between August 30th and September...</p><p><a href=\"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml\">中新经纬</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd0e1f3d1695da2f5dabecfbac4bc57","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","02015":"理想汽车-W"},"source_url":"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175369432","content_text":"作者：牛朝阁28日，针对网传理想L9延期交付一事，理想汽车客服人员给予了确认，“因四川地区电力紧张，理想汽车在四川绵阳的增程器工厂供应延迟，导致理想L9交付延期。”据网传信息显示，理想汽车在官方App中发布了“理想L9交付时间延期公告”。“延期交付的公告只会推送给下订单的车主，其他用户不会收到。”上述客服表示。根据网友晒出的截图，对于在理想汽车App内显示8月内交付的用户，预计将在8月30日至9月4日为用户进行交付，由于车辆延期导致用户9月才能交车的，官方将提供1000元油卡作为用户补偿。App内显示9月交付的用户，车辆则仍会在9月内完成交付。“具体的延期时间还需要车主和交付专家沟通。我也不是已下订单用户，也看不到公告。”上述客服表示。据悉，理想L9此前预计8月底开始交付。值得注意的是，在二季度财报会中，理想高层人员曾对三季度交付量给出了2.7万辆至2.9万辆的悲观预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02015":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071291580,"gmtCreate":1657532629040,"gmtModify":1676536021203,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a>..","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a>..","text":"$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/024a09a8790b76d21e866865e8ff2bae","width":"1242","height":"1968"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071291580","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998617207,"gmtCreate":1660979244610,"gmtModify":1676536434849,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998617207","repostId":"2260437405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2260437405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660960527,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260437405?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 09:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Are frequent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials setting the tone for Powell's central bank meeting next week?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260437405","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have recently repeatedly hinted that controlling inflation remains the Fed's primary goal, even if rate hike could drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes this may be a warm-up for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish speech at the Global Central Bank Conference next Friday. Next week, one of the most anticipated financial events for global investors will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, to be held in Wyoming, USA, on Friday, August 26. At this event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, the content of which may indicate the direction of U.S. borrowing costs.</p><p><b>Prior to Powell's comments, other senior Federal Reserve officials had recently made hawkish remarks, seemingly setting the tone for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve observers expect Powell to deliver tough remarks as he reinforces the central bank's goals of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, August 19, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said that the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if it leads to a recession.</b></p><p>Just a day earlier, three senior Federal Reserve officials made hawkish remarks.</p><p><b>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a major hawk at the Federal Reserve, said he favors the Fed's September rate hike of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Bullard said he’s considering backing another big rate hike at next month’s Fed meeting, adding that he’s not ready for the economy to have already weathered the worst of soaring inflation:</p><p>We should continue to rapidly raise the policy interest rate to a level that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike is being delayed until next year. Speaking about next month's policy meeting, he said:</p><p>I am now inclined to rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good understanding of the economy, and our inflation rate is very high, so I think it makes sense to continue raising the policy interest rate and get into a range where inflation can be controlled.<b>On the same day, another hawkish Federal Reserve official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed a similar view. She believes that while US inflation may be easing, it remains high:</b></p><p>The US July CPI data is encouraging, but it would be too hasty to declare the Biden administration a victory in the fight against inflation now.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, traditionally considered a dovish official at the Federal Reserve, argued that the Fed should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% by the end of the year to cool inflation.</b></p><p>We need to raise interest rates to at least a neutral level, around 3%, but it may enter restrictive territory.<b>Daly further stated that the specific amount of rate hike in September depends on subsequent economic data; 50 basis points or 75 basis points could be an appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Despite Daly's relatively mild statement, given her traditionally dovish stance, her suggestion of a possible 75 basis point rate hike still shattered market expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She went on to say:</b></p><p><b>We do not want the market to perceive the Federal Reserve's path as a hump-shaped one, meaning it will rate hike rapidly this year and then cut interest rates sharply next year.</b><b>How will the market react?</b></p><p><b>This week, the market seems to have begun to react to the Federal Reserve's hawkish views.</b></p><p>Major U.S. stock indices all fell this week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500, which rose more than 3% last week, fell by 2.62% and 1.21% respectively, while the Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell by 2.38%, both ending their longest winning streak since November last year, which ended last week's four-week winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% after rebounding last week. The Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, the largest decliner.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has already risen 40 basis points this month.</p><p>In addition, hawkish comments from senior Federal Reserve officials caused the dollar to surge.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, its biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cryptocurrencies also appeared to be affected by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with a sharp drop on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year</b></p><p>Although the market believes the Federal Reserve will \"keep its word\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, expectations for a Fed rate cut next year are rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Research Institute, believes:</p><p>To reduce inflation to its 2% target, the Federal Reserve will have to suppress the economy.<b>However, in order to promote growth, the Federal Reserve will at some point \"accept coexistence with inflation\".</b>This dovish shift is unlikely to occur in the short term compared to what the market currently seems to expect, but it could arrive in 2023.</body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are frequent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials setting the tone for Powell's central bank meeting next week?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre frequent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials setting the tone for Powell's central bank meeting next week?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-20 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Federal Reserve officials have recently repeatedly hinted that controlling inflation remains the Fed's primary goal, even if rate hike could drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes this may be a warm-up for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish speech at the Global Central Bank Conference next Friday. Next week, one of the most anticipated financial events for global investors will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, to be held in Wyoming, USA, on Friday, August 26. At this event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, the content of which may indicate the direction of U.S. borrowing costs.</p><p><b>Prior to Powell's comments, other senior Federal Reserve officials had recently made hawkish remarks, seemingly setting the tone for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve observers expect Powell to deliver tough remarks as he reinforces the central bank's goals of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, August 19, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said that the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if it leads to a recession.</b></p><p>Just a day earlier, three senior Federal Reserve officials made hawkish remarks.</p><p><b>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a major hawk at the Federal Reserve, said he favors the Fed's September rate hike of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Bullard said he’s considering backing another big rate hike at next month’s Fed meeting, adding that he’s not ready for the economy to have already weathered the worst of soaring inflation:</p><p>We should continue to rapidly raise the policy interest rate to a level that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike is being delayed until next year. Speaking about next month's policy meeting, he said:</p><p>I am now inclined to rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good understanding of the economy, and our inflation rate is very high, so I think it makes sense to continue raising the policy interest rate and get into a range where inflation can be controlled.<b>On the same day, another hawkish Federal Reserve official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed a similar view. She believes that while US inflation may be easing, it remains high:</b></p><p>The US July CPI data is encouraging, but it would be too hasty to declare the Biden administration a victory in the fight against inflation now.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, traditionally considered a dovish official at the Federal Reserve, argued that the Fed should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% by the end of the year to cool inflation.</b></p><p>We need to raise interest rates to at least a neutral level, around 3%, but it may enter restrictive territory.<b>Daly further stated that the specific amount of rate hike in September depends on subsequent economic data; 50 basis points or 75 basis points could be an appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Despite Daly's relatively mild statement, given her traditionally dovish stance, her suggestion of a possible 75 basis point rate hike still shattered market expectations that the Federal Reserve would pause rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She went on to say:</b></p><p><b>We do not want the market to perceive the Federal Reserve's path as a hump-shaped one, meaning it will rate hike rapidly this year and then cut interest rates sharply next year.</b><b>How will the market react?</b></p><p><b>This week, the market seems to have begun to react to the Federal Reserve's hawkish views.</b></p><p>Major U.S. stock indices all fell this week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500, which rose more than 3% last week, fell by 2.62% and 1.21% respectively, while the Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell by 2.38%, both ending their longest winning streak since November last year, which ended last week's four-week winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% after rebounding last week. The Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, the largest decliner.</p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has already risen 40 basis points this month.</p><p>In addition, hawkish comments from senior Federal Reserve officials caused the dollar to surge.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, its biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cryptocurrencies also appeared to be affected by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with a sharp drop on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year</b></p><p>Although the market believes the Federal Reserve will \"keep its word\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, expectations for a Fed rate cut next year are rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Research Institute, believes:</p><p>To reduce inflation to its 2% target, the Federal Reserve will have to suppress the economy.<b>However, in order to promote growth, the Federal Reserve will at some point \"accept coexistence with inflation\".</b>This dovish shift is unlikely to occur in the short term compared to what the market currently seems to expect, but it could arrive in 2023.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2260437405","content_text":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的财经事件之一就是8月26日下周五在美国怀俄明州举办的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会了。在这场活动中，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话，讨论经济前景，其讲话内容可能预示着美国的借贷成本走向。在鲍威尔发表观点之前，其他美联储高官最近纷纷发表鹰派言论，似乎是在为鲍威尔的讲话“定调”。美联储观察人士预计，鲍威尔将发表强硬言论，因为他强化了央行抑制通胀和控制未来物价上涨预期的目标。8月19日周五，里士满联储主席巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）表示，即使通胀导致经济陷入衰退，美联储也必须继续对抗通胀。就在一天前，三位美联储高官纷纷发表鹰派言论。美联储大鹰派圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）表示，他倾向于美联储9月加息75个基点。布拉德说，他正在考虑在下个月的美联储议息会议上支持再次大幅加息，并补充说他还没有准备好经济已经经历了通胀飙升的最糟糕时期：我们应该继续迅速将政策利率提高到将对通胀造成重大下行压力的水平。我真的不明白为什么要将加息拖到明年。在谈到下个月的议息会议时，他说：我现在倾向于再次加息75个基点。我认为我们对经济的解读相对较好，而且我们的通胀率非常高，所以我认为继续提高政策利率并进入能够控制通胀的区间是有意义的。同一天，另一位美联储鹰派官员堪萨斯城联储主席乔治（Esther George）也表达了类似的观点。她认为，美国通胀虽然可能正在趋于缓和，但仍然偏高：美国7月CPI数据是鼓舞人心的，但现在就宣布拜登政府抗通胀取得胜利还显得操之过急。周四，向来被视作美联储鸽派官员的旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary Daly）则认为，美联储应在年底前将利率“略微”提高到3%以上，以冷却通胀：我们需要提高利率，至少达到中性水平，约为3%，但可能会进入限制性区域。戴利进一步称，具体9月加息多少，要看接下来的经济数据，50个基点或者75个基点，都可能是合适的加息幅度。尽管戴利的表态相对温和，但由于她向来相对鸽派，她所称的可能加息75个基点，依然打破了市场对美联储暂停加息或者大幅收窄加息幅度的期待。她还进一步说：我们不希望市场认为美联储的路径是驼峰形的，即今年迅速加息，明年再大举降息。市场如何反应？本周的市场，似乎已经开始对美联储的鹰派观点做出反应。本周主要美股指均累计下跌，上周涨超3%的纳指和标普分别累跌2.62%和1.21%，上周涨近3%的纳斯达克100累跌2.38%，均结束截至上周连涨四周所创的去年11月以来最长连涨周；上周涨近3%的道指累跌0.16%，在上周反弹后回落；上周涨近5%的罗素2000累跌2.94%，跌幅居首。十年期美国国债收益率本月则已经走高了40个基点。此外，美联储高官们的鹰派言论导致美元飙升，美元指数本周飙升2%，这是自2020年4月以来的最大单周涨幅。加密货币的表现似乎也受到了美联储鹰派立场的波及，周五出现暴跌。市场仍预期明年美联储将降息尽管市场相信美联储今年内将“说到做到”，贯彻鹰派立场，但市场对明年美联储降息的预期却越来越高。贝莱德投资研究所高级投资策略师Ann-Katrin Petersen认为：为了将通胀率降至2%的目标，美联储将不得不压制经济。但是，为了促进增长，美联储将在某个时候“接受与通胀共存”。 与市场目前似乎预期的情况相比，这种鸽派转向不太可能在短期内出现，但这种鸽派转向可能会在2023年到来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".DJI":1,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,"QID":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"QLD":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076189190,"gmtCreate":1657809647610,"gmtModify":1676536065291,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076189190","repostId":"1117227538","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055514399,"gmtCreate":1655290909211,"gmtModify":1676535605412,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055514399","repostId":"1129671043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129671043","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655288791,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129671043?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-15 18:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Dingdong Maicai's revenue in the first quarter was 5.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.2%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129671043","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"净亏损为4.774亿元（约合7530万美元），而2021年同期净亏损为13.847亿元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Grocery Store</a>The company released its financial results for the first quarter of 2022, ending March 31, today. Financial reports show that Dingdong Maicai's total revenue in the first quarter was RMB 5.4437 billion (approximately US$858.7 million), a 43.2% increase compared to RMB 3.8021 billion in the same period of 2021.</p><p>The company reported a net loss of RMB 477.4 million (approximately US$75.3 million), compared to a net loss of RMB 1.3847 billion in the same period of 2021.</p><p>Excluding non-GAAP accounting standards, the net loss was RMB 422.2 million (approximately US$66.6 million), compared to a net loss of RMB 1.3756 billion in the same period of 2021.</p><p>As of press time, Dingdong Maicai shares rose more than 3% in pre-market trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6c03e26775c0234f6cb8820dff4c8b\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dingdong Maicai's revenue in the first quarter was 5.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.2%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDingdong Maicai's revenue in the first quarter was 5.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.2%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-15 18:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Grocery Store</a>The company released its financial results for the first quarter of 2022, ending March 31, today. Financial reports show that Dingdong Maicai's total revenue in the first quarter was RMB 5.4437 billion (approximately US$858.7 million), a 43.2% increase compared to RMB 3.8021 billion in the same period of 2021.</p><p>The company reported a net loss of RMB 477.4 million (approximately US$75.3 million), compared to a net loss of RMB 1.3847 billion in the same period of 2021.</p><p>Excluding non-GAAP accounting standards, the net loss was RMB 422.2 million (approximately US$66.6 million), compared to a net loss of RMB 1.3756 billion in the same period of 2021.</p><p>As of press time, Dingdong Maicai shares rose more than 3% in pre-market trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6c03e26775c0234f6cb8820dff4c8b\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d682d4213f17b1515867dfeb07da939","relate_stocks":{"DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129671043","content_text":"叮咚买菜今日发布了截至3月31日的2022年第一季度财报。财报显示，叮咚买菜第一季度总营收为54.437亿元（约合8.587亿美元），与2021年同期的38.021亿元相比增长43.2%。净亏损为4.774亿元（约合7530万美元），而2021年同期净亏损为13.847亿元。不按美国通用会计准则，净亏损为4.222亿元（约合6660万美元），而2021年同期净亏损为13.756亿元。截至发稿，叮咚买菜盘前涨超3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}