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2022-06-25
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Is Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?
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2022-06-25
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There's already an ongoing bear market in cryptocurrency, which could discourage people from investing in the GPUs and other resources needed for mining.</p><p>Nvidia guided for solid fiscal 2023 second-quarter performance, calling for $8.1 billion in revenue, a 24% year-over-year increase. The fiscal 2023 first quarter ended May 1, so the second quarter will cover May through July; investors will want to pay close attention to management's guidance for the next quarter. It could provide a good look at how management expects the business to perform in the fall if the economy does slow down in the coming months.</p><p><b>Long-term opportunities remain intact</b></p><p>It's possible that a recession does come, and Nvidia's growth will slow. But this is where having a long-term time horizon can be an investor's superpower. You don't need to worry about the short-term ups and downs of the industry; you can focus on the big picture.</p><p>The long-term need for semiconductors figures to rise dramatically over time. Research firm McKinsey estimates that the global market for semiconductors could grow from $600 billion to $1 trillion by 2030.</p><p>AI could play a big part in this demand. Emerging technologies like autonomous vehicles, digital-world creation, and edge computing require computing power on site and in data centers to support the immense loads of information generated.</p><p>Nvidia's data center business ended fiscal 2022 on a $13 billion revenue pace, up from just $5 billion two years prior. The company was the world's market leader in discrete GPUs (meaning dedicated GPUs instead of ones being built into the computer processor) at 83% in 2021.</p><p>Nvidia could capture much of this industry growth and has built an extensive ecosystem to protect its market share. It's developed a full stack for AI, providing the GPU hardware, software, and developer tools for a turnkey system to create AI technologies on top of Nvidia's products.</p><p>What does all of this mean? The semiconductor market might hit the occasional bump, but Nvidia is still poised to grow over the years ahead. Semiconductors are the building blocks of technology, and the world will only need more as time goes on.</p><p><b>Buying into the pain</b></p><p>Understandably, people typically hate buying when stocks go down; it can feel painful and only worsen if the stock keeps falling after you buy. Nobody knows what a stock will do tomorrow.</p><p>But isn't a falling share price good if you're optimistic about the company's long-term direction? It's like getting something on sale; you should embrace the market's discount.</p><p>Below, you can see Nvidia's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), which shows you how much you're paying for a piece of Nvidia's profits. People were happy to pay more than $300 for the stock, despite getting a poor value on their investment. The stock traded at a P/E of about 105 at its peak! The <b>S&P 500</b> historically trades at a P/E of about 15, so Nvidia is very expensive compared to the broader market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a436447e15c410a57b2cd82f5853bef\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p>But now, the stock's valuation has fallen dramatically to a P/E of 42, its lowest since late 2019. Analysts expect Nvidia to grow earnings per share (EPS) by an average of 16% annually over the next three to five years, a slowdown from the 43% rate it averaged over the previous five years.</p><p>It's hard to call Nvidia a <i>bargain</i> with that in mind, but as the market leader in discrete GPUs, growth could accelerate during the next market cycle for semiconductors. Buying cyclical companies during moments of weakness can be a great way to position your portfolio for long-term rewards.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-24 23:17 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/22/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSA recession might hurt the semiconductor industry.But Nvidia is a market leader with significant long-term growth opportunities.Buying the stock during a time of weakness could position long...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/22/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/22/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122272925","content_text":"KEY POINTSA recession might hurt the semiconductor industry.But Nvidia is a market leader with significant long-term growth opportunities.Buying the stock during a time of weakness could position long-term investors for solid gains.Semiconductor company Nvidia has had a rough year, falling more than 50% from its high as volatility continues to shake Wall Street.Worries over a potential recession could further pressure shares; semiconductors have traditionally been an industry of booms and busts.It might feel wrong, but here's why leaning into the uncertainty rather than avoiding it could prove lucrative for Nvidia investors in the long run.Short-term industry challenges?Nvidia is the market leader in discrete graphics processing units (GPUs), which are used heavily in specific applications like gaming, cryptocurrency mining, artificial intelligence (AI), and others where high computing power is needed.There's increasing talk about a potential recession, which could mean less consumer spending and less demand for semiconductors. There's already an ongoing bear market in cryptocurrency, which could discourage people from investing in the GPUs and other resources needed for mining.Nvidia guided for solid fiscal 2023 second-quarter performance, calling for $8.1 billion in revenue, a 24% year-over-year increase. The fiscal 2023 first quarter ended May 1, so the second quarter will cover May through July; investors will want to pay close attention to management's guidance for the next quarter. It could provide a good look at how management expects the business to perform in the fall if the economy does slow down in the coming months.Long-term opportunities remain intactIt's possible that a recession does come, and Nvidia's growth will slow. But this is where having a long-term time horizon can be an investor's superpower. You don't need to worry about the short-term ups and downs of the industry; you can focus on the big picture.The long-term need for semiconductors figures to rise dramatically over time. Research firm McKinsey estimates that the global market for semiconductors could grow from $600 billion to $1 trillion by 2030.AI could play a big part in this demand. Emerging technologies like autonomous vehicles, digital-world creation, and edge computing require computing power on site and in data centers to support the immense loads of information generated.Nvidia's data center business ended fiscal 2022 on a $13 billion revenue pace, up from just $5 billion two years prior. The company was the world's market leader in discrete GPUs (meaning dedicated GPUs instead of ones being built into the computer processor) at 83% in 2021.Nvidia could capture much of this industry growth and has built an extensive ecosystem to protect its market share. It's developed a full stack for AI, providing the GPU hardware, software, and developer tools for a turnkey system to create AI technologies on top of Nvidia's products.What does all of this mean? The semiconductor market might hit the occasional bump, but Nvidia is still poised to grow over the years ahead. Semiconductors are the building blocks of technology, and the world will only need more as time goes on.Buying into the painUnderstandably, people typically hate buying when stocks go down; it can feel painful and only worsen if the stock keeps falling after you buy. Nobody knows what a stock will do tomorrow.But isn't a falling share price good if you're optimistic about the company's long-term direction? It's like getting something on sale; you should embrace the market's discount.Below, you can see Nvidia's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), which shows you how much you're paying for a piece of Nvidia's profits. People were happy to pay more than $300 for the stock, despite getting a poor value on their investment. The stock traded at a P/E of about 105 at its peak! The S&P 500 historically trades at a P/E of about 15, so Nvidia is very expensive compared to the broader market.NVDA DATA BY YCHARTS.But now, the stock's valuation has fallen dramatically to a P/E of 42, its lowest since late 2019. Analysts expect Nvidia to grow earnings per share (EPS) by an average of 16% annually over the next three to five years, a slowdown from the 43% rate it averaged over the previous five years.It's hard to call Nvidia a bargain with that in mind, but as the market leader in discrete GPUs, growth could accelerate during the next market cycle for semiconductors. Buying cyclical companies during moments of weakness can be a great way to position your portfolio for long-term rewards.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048010177,"gmtCreate":1656117873199,"gmtModify":1676535770161,"author":{"id":"4117084164910292","authorId":"4117084164910292","name":"Oddly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117084164910292","authorIdStr":"4117084164910292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048010177","repostId":"2246375209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059738916,"gmtCreate":1654428406935,"gmtModify":1676535446299,"author":{"id":"4117084164910292","authorId":"4117084164910292","name":"Oddly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117084164910292","authorIdStr":"4117084164910292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice ","listText":"Nice ","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059738916","repostId":"1175826570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050794741,"gmtCreate":1654236933284,"gmtModify":1676535418364,"author":{"id":"4117084164910292","authorId":"4117084164910292","name":"Oddly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117084164910292","authorIdStr":"4117084164910292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050794741","repostId":"2240660477","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9059738916,"gmtCreate":1654428406935,"gmtModify":1676535446299,"author":{"id":"4117084164910292","authorId":"4117084164910292","name":"Oddly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117084164910292","authorIdStr":"4117084164910292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice ","listText":"Nice ","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059738916","repostId":"1175826570","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175826570","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654300329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175826570?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 07:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSLA Stock News: 5 Biggest Headlines That Tesla Investors Need to Know This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175826570","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Here are the top news items for Tesla this week:$Tesla(TSLA)$ stock is ending this week in the red by 9%.This can be explained by the onslaught of bad news it has faced.Investors have received an exci","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Here are the top news items for Tesla this week:</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> stock is ending this week in the red by 9%.</li><li>This can be explained by the onslaught of bad news it has faced.</li><li>Investors have received an exciting update on Elon Musk's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> deal, however.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> employees have seen a difficult week. On Wednesday, CEO Elon Musk sent out an email decreeing that all workers should either return to their offices for “at least 40 hours per week” or seek other opportunities. Today also began with a report that Musk intends to lay off 10% of the salaried workforce due to his bad feelings about the economy. This news sent TSLA stock into a tailspin — and it hasn’t stopped falling since. Shares closed down 9%.</p><p>It hasn’t been all bad news for Tesla, though. Specifically, investors received positive updates on both Musk’s Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) acquisition and production at the Shanghai factory. While Musk has not discussed the pending deal, there are new reasons to believe it will move forward. And while Tesla’s AI day has been delayed, another exciting update hints that the infamous Cybertruck may hit the road by 2023.</p><p>Let’s take a closer look at this week’s most important TSLA stock headlines.</p><h2>Top Headlines for TSLA Stock Investors</h2><h3>1. Twitter Says Antitrust Waiting Period for Elon Musk Deal Has Passed</h3><p>Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter has cleared another hurdle. According to Twitter, the 30-day antitrust period for the deal has passed as of today. While the deal is subject to shareholder approval, this is still a step forward for Musk. His dispute over Twitter’s alleged bot user count has still not been resolved, but Twitter shows no signs of budging from holding Musk to his original offer. This news helped TWTR stock rise today as TSLA shares fell.</p><h3>2. Tesla shares dip on Elon Musk’s plans to cut workforce</h3><p>News of Tesla’s workforce reduction pushed shares down today. In an email, Musk said he is having “super bad feelings” about the economy. As Musk sees it, the solution is to implement a hiring freeze and lay off 10% of Tesla’s salaried workforce. These grim predictions quickly pushed TSLA stock down in pre-market hours and throughout the day. The company has not confirmed which departments or facilities will see the most layoffs, or when the layoffs will occur.</p><h3>3. Panasonic sends Tesla new EV battery samples ahead of production surge</h3><p>Tesla had been quiet about electric vehicle (EV) battery progress lately, but that changed on June 1. Specifically, Panasonic (OTCMKTS:PCRFY) announced that it had shipped a sample of its 4680 format EV batteries to Tesla. The Japanese electronics producer added that it’s preparing for a “surge in North American power pack production.” Kazuo Tadanobu, the CEO of the company’s energy division, said the company began large-scale battery production in May. Reuters reports that this may be an indication Panasonic is planning to build a production plant in the U.S. to “feed Tesla’s EV expansion plans.”</p><h3>4. Tesla Shanghai plant restores weekly output to 70% of pre-lockdown level</h3><p>As May ended, the company reported that it increased weekly output to almost 70% of what it had been before Covid-19 lockdowns. According to anonymous sources, Tesla expects output to increase even further this week. Tesla is determined to continue scaling production despite labor and supply-chain constraints.</p><h3>5. Tesla is getting the world’s largest casting machine, and it’s for Cybertruck</h3><p>This week, Tesla purchased a Giga Press — the world’s biggest casting machine — to be used for production of the Cybertruck. Tesla gave fans a look at its highly anticipated Cybertruck at the Cyber Rodeo back in April. Since Tesla debuted the truck’s futuristic design, fans have been captivated. Even vague updates on the EV have sent TSLA stock up. This latest investment in large-scale casting technology will help Tesla meet its goal of starting Cybertruck production in 2023.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSLA Stock News: 5 Biggest Headlines That Tesla Investors Need to Know This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSLA Stock News: 5 Biggest Headlines That Tesla Investors Need to Know This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-04 07:52 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/06/tsla-stock-news-5-biggest-headlines-that-tesla-investors-need-to-know-this-week/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here are the top news items for Tesla this week:Tesla stock is ending this week in the red by 9%.This can be explained by the onslaught of bad news it has faced.Investors have received an exciting ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/06/tsla-stock-news-5-biggest-headlines-that-tesla-investors-need-to-know-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/06/tsla-stock-news-5-biggest-headlines-that-tesla-investors-need-to-know-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175826570","content_text":"Here are the top news items for Tesla this week:Tesla stock is ending this week in the red by 9%.This can be explained by the onslaught of bad news it has faced.Investors have received an exciting update on Elon Musk's Twitter deal, however.Tesla employees have seen a difficult week. On Wednesday, CEO Elon Musk sent out an email decreeing that all workers should either return to their offices for “at least 40 hours per week” or seek other opportunities. Today also began with a report that Musk intends to lay off 10% of the salaried workforce due to his bad feelings about the economy. This news sent TSLA stock into a tailspin — and it hasn’t stopped falling since. Shares closed down 9%.It hasn’t been all bad news for Tesla, though. Specifically, investors received positive updates on both Musk’s Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) acquisition and production at the Shanghai factory. While Musk has not discussed the pending deal, there are new reasons to believe it will move forward. And while Tesla’s AI day has been delayed, another exciting update hints that the infamous Cybertruck may hit the road by 2023.Let’s take a closer look at this week’s most important TSLA stock headlines.Top Headlines for TSLA Stock Investors1. Twitter Says Antitrust Waiting Period for Elon Musk Deal Has PassedElon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter has cleared another hurdle. According to Twitter, the 30-day antitrust period for the deal has passed as of today. While the deal is subject to shareholder approval, this is still a step forward for Musk. His dispute over Twitter’s alleged bot user count has still not been resolved, but Twitter shows no signs of budging from holding Musk to his original offer. This news helped TWTR stock rise today as TSLA shares fell.2. Tesla shares dip on Elon Musk’s plans to cut workforceNews of Tesla’s workforce reduction pushed shares down today. In an email, Musk said he is having “super bad feelings” about the economy. As Musk sees it, the solution is to implement a hiring freeze and lay off 10% of Tesla’s salaried workforce. These grim predictions quickly pushed TSLA stock down in pre-market hours and throughout the day. The company has not confirmed which departments or facilities will see the most layoffs, or when the layoffs will occur.3. Panasonic sends Tesla new EV battery samples ahead of production surgeTesla had been quiet about electric vehicle (EV) battery progress lately, but that changed on June 1. Specifically, Panasonic (OTCMKTS:PCRFY) announced that it had shipped a sample of its 4680 format EV batteries to Tesla. The Japanese electronics producer added that it’s preparing for a “surge in North American power pack production.” Kazuo Tadanobu, the CEO of the company’s energy division, said the company began large-scale battery production in May. Reuters reports that this may be an indication Panasonic is planning to build a production plant in the U.S. to “feed Tesla’s EV expansion plans.”4. Tesla Shanghai plant restores weekly output to 70% of pre-lockdown levelAs May ended, the company reported that it increased weekly output to almost 70% of what it had been before Covid-19 lockdowns. According to anonymous sources, Tesla expects output to increase even further this week. Tesla is determined to continue scaling production despite labor and supply-chain constraints.5. Tesla is getting the world’s largest casting machine, and it’s for CybertruckThis week, Tesla purchased a Giga Press — the world’s biggest casting machine — to be used for production of the Cybertruck. Tesla gave fans a look at its highly anticipated Cybertruck at the Cyber Rodeo back in April. Since Tesla debuted the truck’s futuristic design, fans have been captivated. Even vague updates on the EV have sent TSLA stock up. This latest investment in large-scale casting technology will help Tesla meet its goal of starting Cybertruck production in 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048019932,"gmtCreate":1656117919926,"gmtModify":1676535770169,"author":{"id":"4117084164910292","authorId":"4117084164910292","name":"Oddly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117084164910292","authorIdStr":"4117084164910292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048019932","repostId":"1122272925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048010177,"gmtCreate":1656117873199,"gmtModify":1676535770161,"author":{"id":"4117084164910292","authorId":"4117084164910292","name":"Oddly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117084164910292","authorIdStr":"4117084164910292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048010177","repostId":"2246375209","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2246375209","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1656115431,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2246375209?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-25 08:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Wall Street Expects in the Second Half of 2022?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2246375209","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"As the first half of 2022 draws to a close, Wall Street investment banks and their legions of strate","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the first half of 2022 draws to a close, Wall Street investment banks and their legions of strategists have been busy telling clients what they should expect in the second half of what has been an extraordinary year for markets as U.S. stocks head for their worst start in decades.</p><p>Investment banks like JP Morgan Chase & Co., Barclays, UBS Group, Citigroup Inc and others have over the past week or two released their outlooks on what investors should expect in the second half of the year. MarketWatch has some of the highlights -- with one theme uniting them: uncertainty.</p><p>That's largely because markets will hinge on Federal Reserve policy. With officials signaling an intention to remain data-dependent, the direction of monetary policy inevitably will depend on how inflation develops over the coming months.</p><p>Another thing many banks agreed on was that a recession in the U.S. in the second half of the year looked unlikely -- or at the very least, not in their base case.</p><p>Here are other highlights.</p><h3>Stagflation, reflation, soft landing or slump?</h3><p>The team at UBS divided their outlook into four scenarios: "stagflation," "reflation," "soft landing" or "slump," and outlined what the reaction in stocks and bonds could look like in each case.</p><p>Their best case scenario for stocks would be either a "soft landing" or "reflation," but in each case, investors would see inflation pressures moderate while the U.S. economy avoids a recession. Under the "stagflation" scenario, stubborn inflation and tepid growth would drive both stocks and bonds lower, essentially marking a continuation of the trading patterns seen so far this year, where both bonds and stocks have taken a beating.</p><p>Their worst case scenario for stocks would be the economic "slump," which would likely involve a recession that's severe enough to prompt a dramatic shift in expectations surrounding corporate profits. However, in this scenario, the UBS team expects the growth shock would force the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates more quickly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b09a506a8b3c115174a93678658241\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>THE OUTLOOK FOR STOCKS AND BONDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR WILL DEPEND ON THE ECONOMIC BACKDROP. SOURCE: UBS</span></p><p>Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS, said in the mid-year outlook that "there are a lot of potential outcomes for markets, and the only near-certainty is that the path to the end of the year will be a volatile one. It can feel overwhelming for investors considering how to position their portfolios."</p><h3>Opportunity in investment grade bonds</h3><p>One of the most vexing aspects of the year to date -- at least, as far as individual investors are concerned -- is the paucity of investment strategies producing positive returns. Commodities have worked well, and any investors intrepid enough to bet against stocks, or invest in volatility-linked products, probably made money. But investors who ascribe to the rules of the 60/40 portfolio have been beset by losses in both their stock and bond portfolios.</p><p>How might investors hedge against this going forward? David Bailin, Citigroup's chief investment officer, shared some thoughts on this in "investing in the afterglow of a boom," Citi Global Wealth Investment's mid-year outlook.</p><p>As negative real rates weigh on equities, while also sapping the return on bonds, Citi is pitching investment-grade bonds as a kind of happy medium.</p><p>"Our view is that most of the expected US tightening is now embedded in Treasury yields. We believe it is possible that rates will peak this year, as US GDP growth decelerates rapidly. In turn, this will likely see reduced inflation readings, perhapsallowing the Fed to relax its hawkish stance. For investors, these higher yields may represent an attractive level at which to buy. We believe certain fixed-income assets now offer an 'antidote' to the 'cash thief,' given their higher yields," the team said.</p><p>The biggest corporate bond exchange-traded funds ended the week higher, but with the large iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (ETLQD) still 16.9% lower on the year so far. The SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was 15.7% lower on the year and the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was down 13.8%, according to FactSet.</p><p>The S&P 500 index closed higher Friday as stocks rallied, but still was down 17.9% on the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 13.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index was 25.8% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet data.</p><h3>Second-half rebound in stocks</h3><p>JP Morgan Global Research carved out a position as one of the most bullish research shops on Wall Street. The mid-year outlook from the bank's equity strategists was hardly an exception.</p><p>Simply put, the team from JP Morgan recommends buying cyclicals and shunning defensive stocks, arguing that cyclicals like the energy sector are more attractively valued at the moment. The team also sees opportunity in small cap and growth stocks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81cca5ebedab5af10b811ce0897b98c4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DEFENSIVE STOCKS LIKE UTILITIES AND CONSUMER STAPLE AREN’T AS ATTRACTIVELY VALUED AS THEIR GROWTH PEERS.</span></p><p>Defensive stocks like consumer staples and utilities, on the other hand, present less opportunity, and more risk.</p><p>"...[T]hese sectors remain crowded with record relative valuation which we see as vulnerable to rotation under both a scenario of a return to mid-cycle recovery and growth...and recession."</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Wall Street Expects in the Second Half of 2022?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Wall Street Expects in the Second Half of 2022?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-25 08:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>As the first half of 2022 draws to a close, Wall Street investment banks and their legions of strategists have been busy telling clients what they should expect in the second half of what has been an extraordinary year for markets as U.S. stocks head for their worst start in decades.</p><p>Investment banks like JP Morgan Chase & Co., Barclays, UBS Group, Citigroup Inc and others have over the past week or two released their outlooks on what investors should expect in the second half of the year. MarketWatch has some of the highlights -- with one theme uniting them: uncertainty.</p><p>That's largely because markets will hinge on Federal Reserve policy. With officials signaling an intention to remain data-dependent, the direction of monetary policy inevitably will depend on how inflation develops over the coming months.</p><p>Another thing many banks agreed on was that a recession in the U.S. in the second half of the year looked unlikely -- or at the very least, not in their base case.</p><p>Here are other highlights.</p><h3>Stagflation, reflation, soft landing or slump?</h3><p>The team at UBS divided their outlook into four scenarios: "stagflation," "reflation," "soft landing" or "slump," and outlined what the reaction in stocks and bonds could look like in each case.</p><p>Their best case scenario for stocks would be either a "soft landing" or "reflation," but in each case, investors would see inflation pressures moderate while the U.S. economy avoids a recession. Under the "stagflation" scenario, stubborn inflation and tepid growth would drive both stocks and bonds lower, essentially marking a continuation of the trading patterns seen so far this year, where both bonds and stocks have taken a beating.</p><p>Their worst case scenario for stocks would be the economic "slump," which would likely involve a recession that's severe enough to prompt a dramatic shift in expectations surrounding corporate profits. However, in this scenario, the UBS team expects the growth shock would force the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates more quickly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b09a506a8b3c115174a93678658241\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>THE OUTLOOK FOR STOCKS AND BONDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR WILL DEPEND ON THE ECONOMIC BACKDROP. SOURCE: UBS</span></p><p>Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS, said in the mid-year outlook that "there are a lot of potential outcomes for markets, and the only near-certainty is that the path to the end of the year will be a volatile one. It can feel overwhelming for investors considering how to position their portfolios."</p><h3>Opportunity in investment grade bonds</h3><p>One of the most vexing aspects of the year to date -- at least, as far as individual investors are concerned -- is the paucity of investment strategies producing positive returns. Commodities have worked well, and any investors intrepid enough to bet against stocks, or invest in volatility-linked products, probably made money. But investors who ascribe to the rules of the 60/40 portfolio have been beset by losses in both their stock and bond portfolios.</p><p>How might investors hedge against this going forward? David Bailin, Citigroup's chief investment officer, shared some thoughts on this in "investing in the afterglow of a boom," Citi Global Wealth Investment's mid-year outlook.</p><p>As negative real rates weigh on equities, while also sapping the return on bonds, Citi is pitching investment-grade bonds as a kind of happy medium.</p><p>"Our view is that most of the expected US tightening is now embedded in Treasury yields. We believe it is possible that rates will peak this year, as US GDP growth decelerates rapidly. In turn, this will likely see reduced inflation readings, perhapsallowing the Fed to relax its hawkish stance. For investors, these higher yields may represent an attractive level at which to buy. We believe certain fixed-income assets now offer an 'antidote' to the 'cash thief,' given their higher yields," the team said.</p><p>The biggest corporate bond exchange-traded funds ended the week higher, but with the large iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (ETLQD) still 16.9% lower on the year so far. The SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was 15.7% lower on the year and the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was down 13.8%, according to FactSet.</p><p>The S&P 500 index closed higher Friday as stocks rallied, but still was down 17.9% on the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 13.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index was 25.8% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet data.</p><h3>Second-half rebound in stocks</h3><p>JP Morgan Global Research carved out a position as one of the most bullish research shops on Wall Street. The mid-year outlook from the bank's equity strategists was hardly an exception.</p><p>Simply put, the team from JP Morgan recommends buying cyclicals and shunning defensive stocks, arguing that cyclicals like the energy sector are more attractively valued at the moment. The team also sees opportunity in small cap and growth stocks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81cca5ebedab5af10b811ce0897b98c4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DEFENSIVE STOCKS LIKE UTILITIES AND CONSUMER STAPLE AREN’T AS ATTRACTIVELY VALUED AS THEIR GROWTH PEERS.</span></p><p>Defensive stocks like consumer staples and utilities, on the other hand, present less opportunity, and more risk.</p><p>"...[T]hese sectors remain crowded with record relative valuation which we see as vulnerable to rotation under both a scenario of a return to mid-cycle recovery and growth...and recession."</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"USB":"美国合众银行","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","BCS":"巴克莱银行","UBS":"瑞银","BK4521":"英国银行股","C":"花旗","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","JNK":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays高收益债","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2246375209","content_text":"As the first half of 2022 draws to a close, Wall Street investment banks and their legions of strategists have been busy telling clients what they should expect in the second half of what has been an extraordinary year for markets as U.S. stocks head for their worst start in decades.Investment banks like JP Morgan Chase & Co., Barclays, UBS Group, Citigroup Inc and others have over the past week or two released their outlooks on what investors should expect in the second half of the year. MarketWatch has some of the highlights -- with one theme uniting them: uncertainty.That's largely because markets will hinge on Federal Reserve policy. With officials signaling an intention to remain data-dependent, the direction of monetary policy inevitably will depend on how inflation develops over the coming months.Another thing many banks agreed on was that a recession in the U.S. in the second half of the year looked unlikely -- or at the very least, not in their base case.Here are other highlights.Stagflation, reflation, soft landing or slump?The team at UBS divided their outlook into four scenarios: \"stagflation,\" \"reflation,\" \"soft landing\" or \"slump,\" and outlined what the reaction in stocks and bonds could look like in each case.Their best case scenario for stocks would be either a \"soft landing\" or \"reflation,\" but in each case, investors would see inflation pressures moderate while the U.S. economy avoids a recession. Under the \"stagflation\" scenario, stubborn inflation and tepid growth would drive both stocks and bonds lower, essentially marking a continuation of the trading patterns seen so far this year, where both bonds and stocks have taken a beating.Their worst case scenario for stocks would be the economic \"slump,\" which would likely involve a recession that's severe enough to prompt a dramatic shift in expectations surrounding corporate profits. However, in this scenario, the UBS team expects the growth shock would force the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates more quickly.THE OUTLOOK FOR STOCKS AND BONDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR WILL DEPEND ON THE ECONOMIC BACKDROP. SOURCE: UBSMark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS, said in the mid-year outlook that \"there are a lot of potential outcomes for markets, and the only near-certainty is that the path to the end of the year will be a volatile one. It can feel overwhelming for investors considering how to position their portfolios.\"Opportunity in investment grade bondsOne of the most vexing aspects of the year to date -- at least, as far as individual investors are concerned -- is the paucity of investment strategies producing positive returns. Commodities have worked well, and any investors intrepid enough to bet against stocks, or invest in volatility-linked products, probably made money. But investors who ascribe to the rules of the 60/40 portfolio have been beset by losses in both their stock and bond portfolios.How might investors hedge against this going forward? David Bailin, Citigroup's chief investment officer, shared some thoughts on this in \"investing in the afterglow of a boom,\" Citi Global Wealth Investment's mid-year outlook.As negative real rates weigh on equities, while also sapping the return on bonds, Citi is pitching investment-grade bonds as a kind of happy medium.\"Our view is that most of the expected US tightening is now embedded in Treasury yields. We believe it is possible that rates will peak this year, as US GDP growth decelerates rapidly. In turn, this will likely see reduced inflation readings, perhapsallowing the Fed to relax its hawkish stance. For investors, these higher yields may represent an attractive level at which to buy. We believe certain fixed-income assets now offer an 'antidote' to the 'cash thief,' given their higher yields,\" the team said.The biggest corporate bond exchange-traded funds ended the week higher, but with the large iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (ETLQD) still 16.9% lower on the year so far. The SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was 15.7% lower on the year and the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was down 13.8%, according to FactSet.The S&P 500 index closed higher Friday as stocks rallied, but still was down 17.9% on the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 13.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index was 25.8% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet data.Second-half rebound in stocksJP Morgan Global Research carved out a position as one of the most bullish research shops on Wall Street. The mid-year outlook from the bank's equity strategists was hardly an exception.Simply put, the team from JP Morgan recommends buying cyclicals and shunning defensive stocks, arguing that cyclicals like the energy sector are more attractively valued at the moment. The team also sees opportunity in small cap and growth stocks.DEFENSIVE STOCKS LIKE UTILITIES AND CONSUMER STAPLE AREN’T AS ATTRACTIVELY VALUED AS THEIR GROWTH PEERS.Defensive stocks like consumer staples and utilities, on the other hand, present less opportunity, and more risk.\"...[T]hese sectors remain crowded with record relative valuation which we see as vulnerable to rotation under both a scenario of a return to mid-cycle recovery and growth...and recession.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050794741,"gmtCreate":1654236933284,"gmtModify":1676535418364,"author":{"id":"4117084164910292","authorId":"4117084164910292","name":"Oddly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117084164910292","authorIdStr":"4117084164910292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050794741","repostId":"2240660477","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2240660477","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654235519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240660477?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-03 13:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: A Wild Card","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240660477","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"We've heard multiple arguments regarding the valuation of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. Some argue that","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>We've heard multiple arguments regarding the valuation of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. Some argue that it is overvalued, others say that the current price is a steal. Reputable institutions also can't seem to agree on the valuation of this absolute wild card of a stock. At the time of writing this article, Credit Suisse and Berenberg have price targets of $1025 and $900 respectively, while JPMorgan and Barclays both have price targets of $325. There is a huge difference in how people and institutions value this stock; much more so compared to other company stocks. In this article, I take a deeper dive into Tesla's business model and future prospects, after which I will be concluding with my personal valuation analysis for Tesla stock.</p><h2>Why Tesla can be a front-runner in the future</h2><p>The company itself is on a very optimistic trajectory, and could expand at an impressive rate in the near future. We must also consider the rapid expansion of the EV market in general.</p><h3>Explosive growth in financials</h3><p>Tesla has shown explosive growth in multiple areas. Its first-quarter earnings results, which were reported this month, showed an 87% YoY increase in automotive revenue ($16.9B) and a 68% surge in deliveries (310048). In addition, its net cash flow from operating activities saw an increase of over 143%, and it currently stands at just under $4B. It is no question that the company is on an upward trajectory in terms of its growth. The statistics reflect that the company is producing and selling more vehicles at an alarming pace. Its operating cash flows are also increasing massively, which indicates that the company's core business activities (in this case, the manufacturing of electric vehicles) are doing extremely well.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08130a3ae96a853b5227a128fe52208e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla's quarterly vehicle sales growth (2012-2021) (CleanTechnica, Tesla)</p><p>We can see from the chart above that the growth in vehicle sales over the past few years has been on a strong and consistent upward trajectory. There is no doubt that the company's growth rates in revenue and deliveries indicate that it will remain a huge player in the vehicle industry. Another good point to make is that the company's free cash flow has been up tremendously - the company has turned a negative free cash flow of ($221.71m) in 2018 to a whopping $4.98b in 2021. This is due to the substantial increase in operating cash flows over the years. An article on NASDAQ has suggested that based on analyst estimates of future sales and free cash flow margins, we could see free cash flow reach $17.86b by the end of 2023 - that's over three times of what it did last year.</p><h3>Self-developed chips</h3><p>One extremely impressive quality of Tesla is that the company develops its own chips. It is known that Tesla writes its own software through the company's competent engineers, and hence, does not need to source its chips from external suppliers. This gives the company a huge competitive edge over its counterparts. An article from CBS News stated clearly that despite the global chip shortage, Tesla reported record Q4 and FY2022 earnings due to a huge rise in deliveries. Tesla's self-sufficiency in this area is a good reason to believe in the company, especially in the long run where chip shortages may get worse. In comparison, many Chinese EV makers and well-known vehicle companies like General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have been hit hard by the chip shortage due to their over-reliance on global chip supply, with some of them having to close down their factories. Tesla's ability to create its own computer chip supply chain puts it in a significantly more advantageous position as compared to its competitors.</p><h2>Concerns about Tesla</h2><p>While the company has many merits, there are several factors which need to be considered before investing in Tesla stock.</p><h3>Vulnerable to supply chain constraints</h3><p>Although Tesla makes its own chips, we need to acknowledge that any EV company is still extremely vulnerable to supply chain issues, especially after the Russia-Ukraine crisis took the world by storm. According to a recent article by Barron's,</p><blockquote>A basket of metals that go into lithium-ion batteries was up about 40% year to date before Russia invaded Ukraine. It has risen another 13% since then as the war makes inflation worse."</blockquote><p>The drastic increase in price of such factor inputs means horrible news for the EV industry, especially for major players like Tesla. The same article also highlights a more serious problem about this supply chain - its over-reliance on China, which is responsible for the global production of about 80% of such inputs. Elon Musk himself has said that supply chain issues would be affecting output numbers to a significant extent in 2022. The company has even delayed two vehicle releases (namely the Cybertruck and the Roadster) as a result of such constraints. As such, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> cannot underestimate supply chain concerns which arise for EV companies, and it is evident that Tesla has been affected by these issues. The most recent report about Tesla's sales in April this year is further justification that the supply chain issue cannot be neglected. Whether the company navigates these roadblocks remain something to be proven, and persistence of such issues could lead to a bump in the current exponential growth that the company is experiencing, possibly resulting in lower forecasted sales, revenue, and free cash flows. These considerations will be made in the valuation section of this article.</p><h3>Financial ratios and metrics</h3><p>While Tesla boasts explosive growth numbers, there are a few metrics and ratios we may need to be concerned about.</p><h4>Price-to-earnings in comparison to competitors</h4><p>According to a report by Barron's, Ford and General Motors beat Tesla significantly (in sales) in the fourth quarter of 2021, having sales of $37.7 billion and $33.5 billion respectively, compared to Tesla's $25 billion. Yet, we see that Ford and General Motors are currently trading at lesser than 10 times earnings. In comparison, Tesla trades at about 90 times earnings. However, analysts do expect the P/E ratio to be 46.86 in 2024, which is much more reasonable. Some may also argue that Tesla has an edge over normal car companies for the fact that they have their own software architecture, and should hence be valued at a higher multiple.</p><h4>Share dilution</h4><p>Tesla has been consistently issuing shares over the past few years - The company has gone from 852.63m diluted shares outstanding in 2018 to 1.13b diluted shares outstanding in 2021, reflecting a net overall change of 32.5%. There also seems to be no sign of a share buyback, even after a Tesla investor famously demanded for one and got featured on CNBC. The rationale behind this was sound - the stock price has tanked a lot relative to its all-time high. It was even flirting with the low $600s not long ago, yet we have yet to see any action on the company's part. The constant issuing of shares dilutes investors by reducing their stake in the company.</p><h3>Competition from China</h3><p>The EV industry is highly competitive, especially in China. In particular, NIO (NIO), Li Auto (LI), XPeng (XPEV), and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY) have taken the EV market by storm and are all growing at exponential rates.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/407ff92f946818922b3568665d0b216c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Sales in the Chinese premium EV market (EqualOcean)</p><p>We can see from the chart above that Tesla is attempting to break into the Chinese market, with a good amount of growth in sales in this particular area. Understandably, with China's growing middle class and rising demand, it is indeed a lucrative decision to get a share of this pie. However, we cannot overlook the strong competition presented by the other Chinese EV giants. We can see that BYD leads the race in sales, with Tesla as a close second. However, NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng are also on a strong upward trajectory. We need to take into account that these three up-and-coming companies have huge room to grow in market share and sales compared to Tesla, and their performance in terms of deliveries and financials over the past few years have been impressive.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d575e31edd67a64988eb43fc01ee0c20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NIO's quarterly deliveries (CNEVPOST)</p><p>Let's take a look at NIO and their quarterly deliveries. We can see that year-over-year deliveries are up tremendously, which is a good indicator of the growth potential of an EV company. In addition, NIO still has much room for growth if it continues producing high-quality electric cars and expanding into different markets. To put things into perspective, Tesla's market capitalization is about 27 times more than NIO's - yes, it's that much bigger. The point is that Tesla is not the only player in the market, though it is undoubtedly one of the biggest, and most well-known. The company faces strong competition from its Chinese counterparts, and their exponential growth could seriously threaten Tesla's future profitability. Tesla has yet to show that the ability to capture majority of the Chinese market, despite it being one of the biggest EV names in the world.</p><h2>Valuation analysis</h2><p>I will be using a discounted cash flow model, with a weighted average cost of capital of 8.8%, to estimate the intrinsic value of Tesla's stock price. I will also introduce three scenarios: Bear, Base, and Bull.</p><h3>Financials and forecasts</h3><p>Before we go into the analyses, let's analyze a few metrics. Firstly, let's look at Tesla's free cash flows. The company's free cash flow growth numbers in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were 94.65%, 538.85%, 178.62%, and 83.81% respectively. Next, let's observe Tesla's diluted shares outstanding. The company has gone from 852.63m diluted shares outstanding in 2018 to 1.13b diluted shares outstanding in 2021, reflecting a net overall change of 32.5%. This is an approximate average 10% increase in diluted shares outstanding every year. Note that the analyst consensus is for Tesla to reach free cash flow numbers of $17.86 billion in 2023, as stated earlier in this article.</p><h4>Bear case</h4><p>For our Bear case, I've used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.5%, a 55% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 10% annual growth in shares outstanding. This growth rate leads to an approximate $12b in free cash flows in 2023, which is significantly lower than analyst estimates. I've set these conditions based on a bearish scenario where Tesla would continue encountering the supply chain issues I've mentioned, which would significantly slow down deliveries. In addition, big Chinese EV names could seriously rival Tesla in the Chinese market. As such, I've gone below analyst estimates (by quite a bit), and expect a much slower but consistent growth in sales, operating cash flow, and free cash flow. As for the shares outstanding, I've decided to assume that it will grow similar to its average growth rate in recent history.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe01643d4f8bd01fe14f64141392c6ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Bear) (Prepared by author)</p><p></p><p>We've come to a price target of about $335.30, putting this estimate on par with the price targets issued by JPMorgan and Barclays, which are both $325.</p><h4>Base case</h4><p>For our Base case, I've used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.6%, a 65% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 10% annual growth in shares outstanding. This is my personal projection of the company. These metrics would still lead to a significantly lower free cash flow in 2023 compared to analyst estimates (about $13.56b compared to a forecasted $17.86b). I've gone lower because I expect the supply chain issue to persist over the next few years. While Tesla is able to make its own chips, I've yet to be convinced that it is able to smoothly overcome the other supply shortages plaguing the market, especially after its April deliveries. Yet, I do believe that it would see decent growth in sales, operating cash flows, and free cash flow, and there is a good chance that it will maintain its competitiveness in China. As for the shares outstanding, I've decided to assume that it will grow similar to its average growth rate in recent history.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f26136fd86fb52e15bceb7ae3fcfb77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Base) (Prepared by author)</p><p></p><p>We've come to a price target of about $470.90. I consider this estimate to still be on the conservative side, but it's definitely significantly more optimistic than the Bear case.</p><h4>Bull case</h4><p>For our Bull case, I've used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.6%, an 80% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 3% annual growth in shares outstanding. This would lead to $16.14b in free cash flow in 2023, which is much closer to the analyst estimate of $17.86b. This case assumes that Tesla is able to perfectly continue on its upward trajectory, and is also able to withstand the Chinese competition and maintain or increase its share in the Chinese EV market. However, it's important to note that I have still gone slightly lower than analyst estimates, factoring in the supply chain issues that the company is currently facing. However, this case assumes that this issue is a short-term one that the company will be able to resolve through other methods of sourcing, a change in global supply chains or its own innovation. I've gone on to assume that the company, having earned a tremendous amount of free cash flow, would either issue lesser shares or use it to buy back shares to benefit Tesla investors. As such, I believe that the company would issue shares at a slower rate.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a78487a262914029aee632fd2df1562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Bull) (Prepared by author)</p><p>We've come to a price target of about $1016.80, putting this estimate on par with the price target issued by Credit Suisse, which is $1025.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>I've taken the average of the above three cases to arrive at a price target of $607.66, similar to Cowen's price target of $660. This is lower than the current price at which Tesla is trading at, though the price was near this level not too long ago. I believe that this company can be described as a wild card - it could bring huge returns if things go to plan, but if they don't, it could be ridiculously overvalued. It's imperative that you do further due diligence and invest with caution, as there's huge uncertainty when it comes to such companies. I will conclude my analysis with a price target of $607.66, and a 'Hold' rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: A Wild Card</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: A Wild Card\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-03 13:51 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515886-tesla-stock-a-wild-card><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We've heard multiple arguments regarding the valuation of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. Some argue that it is overvalued, others say that the current price is a steal. Reputable institutions also can't ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515886-tesla-stock-a-wild-card\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515886-tesla-stock-a-wild-card","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240660477","content_text":"We've heard multiple arguments regarding the valuation of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. Some argue that it is overvalued, others say that the current price is a steal. Reputable institutions also can't seem to agree on the valuation of this absolute wild card of a stock. At the time of writing this article, Credit Suisse and Berenberg have price targets of $1025 and $900 respectively, while JPMorgan and Barclays both have price targets of $325. There is a huge difference in how people and institutions value this stock; much more so compared to other company stocks. In this article, I take a deeper dive into Tesla's business model and future prospects, after which I will be concluding with my personal valuation analysis for Tesla stock.Why Tesla can be a front-runner in the futureThe company itself is on a very optimistic trajectory, and could expand at an impressive rate in the near future. We must also consider the rapid expansion of the EV market in general.Explosive growth in financialsTesla has shown explosive growth in multiple areas. Its first-quarter earnings results, which were reported this month, showed an 87% YoY increase in automotive revenue ($16.9B) and a 68% surge in deliveries (310048). In addition, its net cash flow from operating activities saw an increase of over 143%, and it currently stands at just under $4B. It is no question that the company is on an upward trajectory in terms of its growth. The statistics reflect that the company is producing and selling more vehicles at an alarming pace. Its operating cash flows are also increasing massively, which indicates that the company's core business activities (in this case, the manufacturing of electric vehicles) are doing extremely well.Tesla's quarterly vehicle sales growth (2012-2021) (CleanTechnica, Tesla)We can see from the chart above that the growth in vehicle sales over the past few years has been on a strong and consistent upward trajectory. There is no doubt that the company's growth rates in revenue and deliveries indicate that it will remain a huge player in the vehicle industry. Another good point to make is that the company's free cash flow has been up tremendously - the company has turned a negative free cash flow of ($221.71m) in 2018 to a whopping $4.98b in 2021. This is due to the substantial increase in operating cash flows over the years. An article on NASDAQ has suggested that based on analyst estimates of future sales and free cash flow margins, we could see free cash flow reach $17.86b by the end of 2023 - that's over three times of what it did last year.Self-developed chipsOne extremely impressive quality of Tesla is that the company develops its own chips. It is known that Tesla writes its own software through the company's competent engineers, and hence, does not need to source its chips from external suppliers. This gives the company a huge competitive edge over its counterparts. An article from CBS News stated clearly that despite the global chip shortage, Tesla reported record Q4 and FY2022 earnings due to a huge rise in deliveries. Tesla's self-sufficiency in this area is a good reason to believe in the company, especially in the long run where chip shortages may get worse. In comparison, many Chinese EV makers and well-known vehicle companies like General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have been hit hard by the chip shortage due to their over-reliance on global chip supply, with some of them having to close down their factories. Tesla's ability to create its own computer chip supply chain puts it in a significantly more advantageous position as compared to its competitors.Concerns about TeslaWhile the company has many merits, there are several factors which need to be considered before investing in Tesla stock.Vulnerable to supply chain constraintsAlthough Tesla makes its own chips, we need to acknowledge that any EV company is still extremely vulnerable to supply chain issues, especially after the Russia-Ukraine crisis took the world by storm. According to a recent article by Barron's,A basket of metals that go into lithium-ion batteries was up about 40% year to date before Russia invaded Ukraine. It has risen another 13% since then as the war makes inflation worse.\"The drastic increase in price of such factor inputs means horrible news for the EV industry, especially for major players like Tesla. The same article also highlights a more serious problem about this supply chain - its over-reliance on China, which is responsible for the global production of about 80% of such inputs. Elon Musk himself has said that supply chain issues would be affecting output numbers to a significant extent in 2022. The company has even delayed two vehicle releases (namely the Cybertruck and the Roadster) as a result of such constraints. As such, one cannot underestimate supply chain concerns which arise for EV companies, and it is evident that Tesla has been affected by these issues. The most recent report about Tesla's sales in April this year is further justification that the supply chain issue cannot be neglected. Whether the company navigates these roadblocks remain something to be proven, and persistence of such issues could lead to a bump in the current exponential growth that the company is experiencing, possibly resulting in lower forecasted sales, revenue, and free cash flows. These considerations will be made in the valuation section of this article.Financial ratios and metricsWhile Tesla boasts explosive growth numbers, there are a few metrics and ratios we may need to be concerned about.Price-to-earnings in comparison to competitorsAccording to a report by Barron's, Ford and General Motors beat Tesla significantly (in sales) in the fourth quarter of 2021, having sales of $37.7 billion and $33.5 billion respectively, compared to Tesla's $25 billion. Yet, we see that Ford and General Motors are currently trading at lesser than 10 times earnings. In comparison, Tesla trades at about 90 times earnings. However, analysts do expect the P/E ratio to be 46.86 in 2024, which is much more reasonable. Some may also argue that Tesla has an edge over normal car companies for the fact that they have their own software architecture, and should hence be valued at a higher multiple.Share dilutionTesla has been consistently issuing shares over the past few years - The company has gone from 852.63m diluted shares outstanding in 2018 to 1.13b diluted shares outstanding in 2021, reflecting a net overall change of 32.5%. There also seems to be no sign of a share buyback, even after a Tesla investor famously demanded for one and got featured on CNBC. The rationale behind this was sound - the stock price has tanked a lot relative to its all-time high. It was even flirting with the low $600s not long ago, yet we have yet to see any action on the company's part. The constant issuing of shares dilutes investors by reducing their stake in the company.Competition from ChinaThe EV industry is highly competitive, especially in China. In particular, NIO (NIO), Li Auto (LI), XPeng (XPEV), and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY) have taken the EV market by storm and are all growing at exponential rates.Sales in the Chinese premium EV market (EqualOcean)We can see from the chart above that Tesla is attempting to break into the Chinese market, with a good amount of growth in sales in this particular area. Understandably, with China's growing middle class and rising demand, it is indeed a lucrative decision to get a share of this pie. However, we cannot overlook the strong competition presented by the other Chinese EV giants. We can see that BYD leads the race in sales, with Tesla as a close second. However, NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng are also on a strong upward trajectory. We need to take into account that these three up-and-coming companies have huge room to grow in market share and sales compared to Tesla, and their performance in terms of deliveries and financials over the past few years have been impressive.NIO's quarterly deliveries (CNEVPOST)Let's take a look at NIO and their quarterly deliveries. We can see that year-over-year deliveries are up tremendously, which is a good indicator of the growth potential of an EV company. In addition, NIO still has much room for growth if it continues producing high-quality electric cars and expanding into different markets. To put things into perspective, Tesla's market capitalization is about 27 times more than NIO's - yes, it's that much bigger. The point is that Tesla is not the only player in the market, though it is undoubtedly one of the biggest, and most well-known. The company faces strong competition from its Chinese counterparts, and their exponential growth could seriously threaten Tesla's future profitability. Tesla has yet to show that the ability to capture majority of the Chinese market, despite it being one of the biggest EV names in the world.Valuation analysisI will be using a discounted cash flow model, with a weighted average cost of capital of 8.8%, to estimate the intrinsic value of Tesla's stock price. I will also introduce three scenarios: Bear, Base, and Bull.Financials and forecastsBefore we go into the analyses, let's analyze a few metrics. Firstly, let's look at Tesla's free cash flows. The company's free cash flow growth numbers in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were 94.65%, 538.85%, 178.62%, and 83.81% respectively. Next, let's observe Tesla's diluted shares outstanding. The company has gone from 852.63m diluted shares outstanding in 2018 to 1.13b diluted shares outstanding in 2021, reflecting a net overall change of 32.5%. This is an approximate average 10% increase in diluted shares outstanding every year. Note that the analyst consensus is for Tesla to reach free cash flow numbers of $17.86 billion in 2023, as stated earlier in this article.Bear caseFor our Bear case, I've used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.5%, a 55% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 10% annual growth in shares outstanding. This growth rate leads to an approximate $12b in free cash flows in 2023, which is significantly lower than analyst estimates. I've set these conditions based on a bearish scenario where Tesla would continue encountering the supply chain issues I've mentioned, which would significantly slow down deliveries. In addition, big Chinese EV names could seriously rival Tesla in the Chinese market. As such, I've gone below analyst estimates (by quite a bit), and expect a much slower but consistent growth in sales, operating cash flow, and free cash flow. As for the shares outstanding, I've decided to assume that it will grow similar to its average growth rate in recent history.Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Bear) (Prepared by author)We've come to a price target of about $335.30, putting this estimate on par with the price targets issued by JPMorgan and Barclays, which are both $325.Base caseFor our Base case, I've used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.6%, a 65% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 10% annual growth in shares outstanding. This is my personal projection of the company. These metrics would still lead to a significantly lower free cash flow in 2023 compared to analyst estimates (about $13.56b compared to a forecasted $17.86b). I've gone lower because I expect the supply chain issue to persist over the next few years. While Tesla is able to make its own chips, I've yet to be convinced that it is able to smoothly overcome the other supply shortages plaguing the market, especially after its April deliveries. Yet, I do believe that it would see decent growth in sales, operating cash flows, and free cash flow, and there is a good chance that it will maintain its competitiveness in China. As for the shares outstanding, I've decided to assume that it will grow similar to its average growth rate in recent history.Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Base) (Prepared by author)We've come to a price target of about $470.90. I consider this estimate to still be on the conservative side, but it's definitely significantly more optimistic than the Bear case.Bull caseFor our Bull case, I've used a perpetuity growth rate of 3.6%, an 80% average annual growth in free cash flow and a 3% annual growth in shares outstanding. This would lead to $16.14b in free cash flow in 2023, which is much closer to the analyst estimate of $17.86b. This case assumes that Tesla is able to perfectly continue on its upward trajectory, and is also able to withstand the Chinese competition and maintain or increase its share in the Chinese EV market. However, it's important to note that I have still gone slightly lower than analyst estimates, factoring in the supply chain issues that the company is currently facing. However, this case assumes that this issue is a short-term one that the company will be able to resolve through other methods of sourcing, a change in global supply chains or its own innovation. I've gone on to assume that the company, having earned a tremendous amount of free cash flow, would either issue lesser shares or use it to buy back shares to benefit Tesla investors. As such, I believe that the company would issue shares at a slower rate.Discounted Cash Flow Model for Tesla (Bull) (Prepared by author)We've come to a price target of about $1016.80, putting this estimate on par with the price target issued by Credit Suisse, which is $1025.ConclusionI've taken the average of the above three cases to arrive at a price target of $607.66, similar to Cowen's price target of $660. This is lower than the current price at which Tesla is trading at, though the price was near this level not too long ago. I believe that this company can be described as a wild card - it could bring huge returns if things go to plan, but if they don't, it could be ridiculously overvalued. It's imperative that you do further due diligence and invest with caution, as there's huge uncertainty when it comes to such companies. I will conclude my analysis with a price target of $607.66, and a 'Hold' rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
