麥卡倫 18 personal page - To The Moon

麥卡倫 18

麥卡倫 18

"Being greedy is the only motivation 😉"

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12-17

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ If you're with me again, this is what happens in your wallet! [Miser] [Call] [USD] [Love]

12-16

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Nothing can stop it from flying to the moon 🚀 🌝

12-06

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ 🔥I need to Stay Calm & be a Humble man 😉 Can another tell me what is happening❓❓$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ To the Moon 🌝

11-23

$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ I BELIEVE YOU CAN FLY!

11-11

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Lety picture do the talking! $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ investment is a long journey 😉 follow me and you won't walking on a wrong path 🤡

11-05

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ How many of my friends are still with me now?

10-30

I am a greedy man 😉 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

10-25

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ⚠️ Brothers & Sisters, please don't sell anything below $50 😉

10-11

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Why I like to hold hands with PLTR, and to remain a long term relationship??? It's simple and logical as below: 1) PLTR spending few quarters to be proven and qualified to be included in S&P500, 2) AI is the trend and I believe the PLTR boot camps are continuously bringing in good business, 3) Please don't forget the military contracts, 4) Some companies might be eyeing to collaborate with PLTR for AI related expansion, 5) I believe it will show us another flying colors quarterly results! 6) Low entry price for most retail investors Join me to be a PLTR shareholder! $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </

10-09

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Do you believe if I tell you it will hit $50 before 1st November? $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

10-07

Stay at home and do not trade. No gut No gain. What's the problem of this S&P500 qualify PLTR? Tiger Brokers, How can I delete your comments and notifications???

Palantir: Top Line Expands, Dilution Shrinks Shareholder Value

09-23

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ If you're still thinking not to buy and dreaming it would drop. It's OK. 😏 We will be laughing to the bank without you😉 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

09-10

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I have told all my friends to buy and hold, and I am very confident in PLTR to join S&P500 🥳

09-07

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Bullish Months ago I am waiting for PLTR joining S&P500.... $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Hope You're with me 🥳🥳🥳

08-27

Not shy? Someone is talking different 🐔 story everyday.... tomorrow will he say a Strong Buy and prepare to hit $35 ,😆😆😆😆😆

Palantir: Time To Sell

08-26

👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻 what are you talking about 🦜

3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings

08-19

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I am not going to do anything today 🙋🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🙎🏻‍♂️

07-26

Buy low Sell high. Right time Right place. Study the company background and direction, do not listen to those self proclaimed Top/ Talk analysts... Ultimately you need to have holding powers 😉$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

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[Miser] [Call] [USD] [Love]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a56c6323e507cc0b39215e73da9dbdfe","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":67,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":8,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382367140258192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"content":"My estimated SOUN price is $50 before April 2025, please share your comments.$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ This is the fish jumping into the dragon gate![Miser][Happy][USD][Call][OK]","text":"My estimated SOUN price is $50 before April 2025, please share your comments.$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ This is the fish jumping into the dragon gate![Miser][Happy][USD][Call][OK]","html":"My estimated SOUN price is $50 before April 2025, please share your comments.$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ This is the fish jumping into the dragon gate![Miser][Happy][USD][Call][OK]"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382317784011160,"gmtCreate":1734321581955,"gmtModify":1734343201535,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a> Nothing can stop it from flying to the moon 🚀 🌝&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a> Nothing can stop it from flying to the moon 🚀 🌝&nbsp;","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Nothing can stop it from flying to the moon 🚀 🌝","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6e9787e7b23bc81d4d4542c0f39ac7f","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":197,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382317784011160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CashBoostAccount","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010968","authorIdStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Great job on your latest stock market success! Your commitment to research and analysis is evident in your results. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.💹💰🤩🎉 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","text":"Great job on your latest stock market success! Your commitment to research and analysis is evident in your results. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.💹💰🤩🎉 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","html":"Great job on your latest stock market success! Your commitment to research and analysis is evident in your results. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.💹💰🤩🎉 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378354216935712,"gmtCreate":1733414414338,"gmtModify":1733455674030,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 🔥I need to Stay Calm &amp; be a Humble man 😉 Can another tell me what is happening❓❓<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a> To the Moon 🌝","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 🔥I need to Stay Calm &amp; be a Humble man 😉 Can another tell me what is happening❓❓<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a> To the Moon 🌝","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ 🔥I need to Stay Calm & be a Humble man 😉 Can another tell me what is happening❓❓$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ To the Moon 🌝","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b0c5088f82becee692b6a6a38aa7ece","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":17,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378354216935712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CashBoostAccount","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010968","authorIdStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Congratulations on your recent gains! Your dedication to value investing is clearly paying off. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.🥳🥳 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","text":"Congratulations on your recent gains! Your dedication to value investing is clearly paying off. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.🥳🥳 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","html":"Congratulations on your recent gains! Your dedication to value investing is clearly paying off. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.🥳🥳 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373918024716600,"gmtCreate":1732329079044,"gmtModify":1732329085048,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> I BELIEVE YOU CAN FLY!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> I BELIEVE YOU CAN FLY!&nbsp;","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ I BELIEVE YOU CAN FLY!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4573a42a5ad5b0a0a5c3d1293a4a28bf","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373918024716600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369874143014976,"gmtCreate":1731323821208,"gmtModify":1731388775937,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Lety picture do the talking!&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a> investment is a long journey 😉 follow me and you won't walking on a&nbsp;wrong path 🤡","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Lety picture do the talking!&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a> investment is a long journey 😉 follow me and you won't walking on a&nbsp;wrong path 🤡","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Lety picture do the talking! $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ investment is a long journey 😉 follow me and you won't walking on a wrong path 🤡","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d3548972689eaba97042a756f7e4fd4","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":31,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369874143014976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367839360618616,"gmtCreate":1730822283819,"gmtModify":1730875211299,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a> How many of my friends are still with me now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a> How many of my friends are still with me now?","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ How many of my friends are still with me now?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0375a0a828996e9165c97e3bf2a42d13","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367839360618616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4099057536688210","authorId":"4099057536688210","name":"momotaro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e721238dd74be31ccf3b8ae086e48839","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099057536688210","authorIdStr":"4099057536688210"},"content":"It really takes patience to stay until now. It has been a long journey but is rewarding. In fact, doing nothing may yield better profits in the case of Palantir. Continue to have faith and trust in this company's fundamentals.","text":"It really takes patience to stay until now. It has been a long journey but is rewarding. In fact, doing nothing may yield better profits in the case of Palantir. Continue to have faith and trust in this company's fundamentals.","html":"It really takes patience to stay until now. It has been a long journey but is rewarding. In fact, doing nothing may yield better profits in the case of Palantir. Continue to have faith and trust in this company's fundamentals."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365772858499192,"gmtCreate":1730300584367,"gmtModify":1730515803652,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am a greedy man 😉 <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\"> $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>","listText":"I am a greedy man 😉 <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\"> $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>","text":"I am a greedy man 😉 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d068a6881d679e129c513fc342d8ab9"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":14,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365772858499192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CashBoostAccount","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010968","authorIdStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","text":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","html":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363958850072832,"gmtCreate":1729867477381,"gmtModify":1730187617873,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a> ⚠️ Brothers &amp; Sisters, please don't sell anything below $50 😉","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a> ⚠️ Brothers &amp; Sisters, please don't sell anything below $50 😉","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ⚠️ Brothers & Sisters, please don't sell anything below $50 😉","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac8c076f0fd66dacbea8d370cd31f273","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363958850072832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CashBoostAccount","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010968","authorIdStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","text":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","html":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358647293411400,"gmtCreate":1728600654486,"gmtModify":1728613296630,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Why I like to hold hands with PLTR, and to remain a long term relationship??? It's simple and logical as below: 1) PLTR spending few quarters to be proven and qualified&nbsp;to be included in S&amp;P500, 2) AI is the trend and I believe&nbsp;the PLTR boot camps are continuously bringing in good business, 3) Please don't forget the military contracts, 4) Some companies might be eyeing to collaborate with PLTR for AI related expansion, 5) I believe it will show us another&nbsp;flying colors&nbsp;quarterly results! 6) Low entry price for most retail investors&nbsp; Join me to be a PLTR shareholder!&nbsp; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;&lt;/</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Why I like to hold hands with PLTR, and to remain a long term relationship??? It's simple and logical as below: 1) PLTR spending few quarters to be proven and qualified&nbsp;to be included in S&amp;P500, 2) AI is the trend and I believe&nbsp;the PLTR boot camps are continuously bringing in good business, 3) Please don't forget the military contracts, 4) Some companies might be eyeing to collaborate with PLTR for AI related expansion, 5) I believe it will show us another&nbsp;flying colors&nbsp;quarterly results! 6) Low entry price for most retail investors&nbsp; Join me to be a PLTR shareholder!&nbsp; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;&lt;/</a>","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Why I like to hold hands with PLTR, and to remain a long term relationship??? It's simple and logical as below: 1) PLTR spending few quarters to be proven and qualified to be included in S&P500, 2) AI is the trend and I believe the PLTR boot camps are continuously bringing in good business, 3) Please don't forget the military contracts, 4) Some companies might be eyeing to collaborate with PLTR for AI related expansion, 5) I believe it will show us another flying colors quarterly results! 6) Low entry price for most retail investors Join me to be a PLTR shareholder! $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/93221792baa1d46e775b3b0084351411","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":70,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":48,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358647293411400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358171043881320,"gmtCreate":1728480886926,"gmtModify":1728480891908,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Do you believe if I&nbsp;tell you it will hit $50 before 1st November?&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Do you believe if I&nbsp;tell you it will hit $50 before 1st November?&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Do you believe if I tell you it will hit $50 before 1st November? $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0278b4e1ff57469dd33d672a50bdc0db","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358171043881320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357523409559680,"gmtCreate":1728295540821,"gmtModify":1728295545357,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stay at home and do not trade.&nbsp; No gut No gain.&nbsp; What's the problem of this S&amp;P500 qualify PLTR?&nbsp;&nbsp; Tiger Brokers,&nbsp;How can I delete your comments and notifications???","listText":"Stay at home and do not trade.&nbsp; No gut No gain.&nbsp; What's the problem of this S&amp;P500 qualify PLTR?&nbsp;&nbsp; Tiger Brokers,&nbsp;How can I delete your comments and notifications???","text":"Stay at home and do not trade. No gut No gain. What's the problem of this S&P500 qualify PLTR? Tiger Brokers, How can I delete your comments and notifications???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357523409559680","repostId":"2473155384","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2473155384","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1728269177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2473155384?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-07 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Top Line Expands, Dilution Shrinks Shareholder Value","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2473155384","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir's significant revenue growth is overshadowed by high equity dilution, resulting in negative per-share revenue growth and diminished shareholder value over the past 3 years.Stock-based compens","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir&#39;s significant revenue growth is overshadowed by high equity dilution, resulting in negative per-share revenue growth and diminished shareholder value over the past 3 years.</p></li><li><p>Stock-based compensation, representing 66% of CFO, inflates cash flows but dilutes shareholder equity, questioning the quality of earnings.</p></li><li><p>Given the excessive equity dilution and unrealistic market assumptions, I recommend a sell rating and advise investors to stay on the sidelines.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ca0459f275b9aed733014624cae2dc80\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</p><h2 id=\"id_3642493715\">Recent developments</h2><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> over the last quarters has seen significant growth in the top and bottom line. As the founder mentioned:</p><blockquote><p><em>The U.S. government has begun awakening as well to the scope of the opportunity ahead. This past quarter, for the first time in our company&#39;s history, the trailing twelve-month revenue in our U.S. government business-including defense and intelligence agencies-surpassed $1 billion.</em></p></blockquote><p>Indeed, a milestone for a newly founded company.</p><p>During FY2023, net income and operating income turned positive for the first time since the company&#39;s inception. Net income increased by 156% YoY, and operating income by 158%, driven by a 16.74% revenue expansion.</p><p>Between Q2 and Q1 of 2024, US Commercial revenues increased by 55% climbing to $159M, and International Commercial revenues increased by 33%, reaching $309M. Government US and non-US revenues grew at 25% reaching a combined total of $649M.</p><p>Additionally, net income increased by 27% QoQ and operating income increased by 31% QoQ for the same period respectively, positioning the Q2 2024 GAAP operating margin at 16%. During Q2 FY2024 they reached a record rule of 40 of 64% (growth rate + % EBITDA margin) indicating that PLTR is one of the healthiest SaaS startups by wide margins. View Q2-2024 results here.</p><p>However, current market appraisal raises concerns for old and new investors as the market has valued the aforementioned net income growth at 200 times earnings, raising even higher the expected growth. As we will soon observe, past growth hasn&#39;t been adequate for such a valuation if we consider the tremendous equity dilution that shareholder&#39;s experienced over the past 2–3 years. Let&#39;s take a look.</p><h2 id=\"id_3533153028\">Quality of earnings</h2><p>Palantir&#39;s net income is lower than cash-flows from operations, which is an indication of high quality of earnings. But we need to further analyze CFO to find out what items were included and if any adjustments need to be made. After a brief vertical analysis on cash flows from operations, these are our findings:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/375932890b10a0d9afa028ce7674f1f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p>CFO extract (Palantir 2023 Annual Report)</p><p>Stock-based compensation represented 66% of CFO. When such expense goes through the income statement but is added back to compute CFO, the result is lower earnings and <strong>higher cash-flows</strong>, which in turn indicate high quality of earnings. However, If the expense is eliminated from the income statement, the inverse takes effect. Higher net income and lower CFO, which is a characteristic of poor earnings quality.</p><p>Consequently, if stock-based compensation gets eliminated, the cash flows will look poorer and earnings will be higher (and <strong>possibly inflated</strong>). It is a trade-off that needs to be carefully considered, but since it increases the cash-flow figure, it is likely that such large dilutive compensation will persist.</p><p>As we can see in the below extract, from FY2022 to FY2023 another 200M shares were added to the total, driving the value of current shareholders even lower. What happens if we carefully investigate the per-share figures?</p><p>In that case, shareholders haven&#39;t realized any intrinsic growth over the past 3 years. Of course, one might make the case that per-share figures don&#39;t matter since an increase/decrease in shares does not impact the top or bottom line. I have to remind you, however, that issuing shares and diluting equity is a real expense to the current shareholders as are asked to purchase more shares to offset the dilution effect.</p><h3 id=\"id_4173253093\">Impact of dilution on past growth</h3><p>Top-line expansion is not as good as it looks if we view the per-share figures:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c88a0636effd654c734b5e340a796a2\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p>Diluted Shares - Impact on I/S (Author&#39;s Estimates)</p><p>It is clear that Palantir averaged a negative <strong>-2.7%</strong> 3-year revenue per-share growth if we take into account the tremendous equity dilution. On a diluted per-share basis, shareholder&#39;s stakes shrank by 11%. On the bright side, YoY(2022-2023) retained earnings increased slightly by 3%.</p><p>Investors to date have put $5.6B in the enterprise to realize about $300M from operations annually. If we assume that investment was made yesterday to harvest $300M of earnings from operations today, then the return matches the annual yield of a 3 month T-Bill.</p><h3 id=\"id_886434877\">Market assumptions</h3><p><strong>EPS</strong></p><p>New investors are asked to pay 200 times earnings, given the recent acceleration in the top line.</p><p>What does a cost of $36 per share mean for Normalized GAAP Diluted EPS $0.11 (TTM) annual earnings? If we assume that 200x is a &#34;fair value&#34;, GAAP Diluted EPS should grow 200% consistently for the next 5 years.</p><p>Additionally, if we use 5% for the risk-free rate, which sets the fair P/E at 20, Normalized GAAP Diluted EPS should be $1.8 today to support a fair no-growth valuation.</p><p><strong>P/B</strong></p><p>Old Graham readers will recall his comments on paying a price above book value. It is generally not recommended unless the book value premium can be actually realized by the enterprise in the future. A 20x multiple indicates that there is a $76B premium that the company should earn in the future to justify a P/B of 20 bringing it down to a P/B of 1. Of course, no technology company is trading at P/B of 1 because they are perceived to have a wide competitive advantage over other companies. As a result, a P/B of 2 or 3 might be justified. But a P/B of 20 is unreasonable for a startup.</p><p><strong>Effects of Additional Paid-in Capital (APIC) on Book Value</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/812a0397d3c43cc43ee2892665692dc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"/></p><p>Last Report, 2023, 2022, 2021 (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>When an option is exercised, the company raises more cash, stockholders equity goes up by the same amount. This is the reason why we need to consider both figures retained earnings and APIC.</p><p>We can see that during the latest report and the past 3 years, book value grew at a substantial pace. The investor should not mistake growth in book value, with capital contributed. A large part of the growth in book value was driven by more cash that the company was able to raise by exercising stock options. We can see that APIC between 2023 and Q2 2024 was increased by $341M and retained earnings by $240M for a combined $580M increase. Thus, the stock exercise in the first two quarters, grew book value by nearly 59%.</p><h3 id=\"id_1741975895\">Investment Considerations</h3><p>All things considered, the enterprise at the current growth state is not of investment quality. Given the large equity dilution, I would recommend a sell for the security. Investors can remain on the sidelines until the long-term view changes.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Top Line Expands, Dilution Shrinks Shareholder Value</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Top Line Expands, Dilution Shrinks Shareholder Value\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-07 10:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4725211-palantir-top-line-expands-dilution-shrinks-shareholder-value><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir's significant revenue growth is overshadowed by high equity dilution, resulting in negative per-share revenue growth and diminished shareholder value over the past 3 years.Stock-based ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4725211-palantir-top-line-expands-dilution-shrinks-shareholder-value\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4725211-palantir-top-line-expands-dilution-shrinks-shareholder-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2473155384","content_text":"Palantir's significant revenue growth is overshadowed by high equity dilution, resulting in negative per-share revenue growth and diminished shareholder value over the past 3 years.Stock-based compensation, representing 66% of CFO, inflates cash flows but dilutes shareholder equity, questioning the quality of earnings.Given the excessive equity dilution and unrealistic market assumptions, I recommend a sell rating and advise investors to stay on the sidelines.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesRecent developmentsPalantir over the last quarters has seen significant growth in the top and bottom line. As the founder mentioned:The U.S. government has begun awakening as well to the scope of the opportunity ahead. This past quarter, for the first time in our company's history, the trailing twelve-month revenue in our U.S. government business-including defense and intelligence agencies-surpassed $1 billion.Indeed, a milestone for a newly founded company.During FY2023, net income and operating income turned positive for the first time since the company's inception. Net income increased by 156% YoY, and operating income by 158%, driven by a 16.74% revenue expansion.Between Q2 and Q1 of 2024, US Commercial revenues increased by 55% climbing to $159M, and International Commercial revenues increased by 33%, reaching $309M. Government US and non-US revenues grew at 25% reaching a combined total of $649M.Additionally, net income increased by 27% QoQ and operating income increased by 31% QoQ for the same period respectively, positioning the Q2 2024 GAAP operating margin at 16%. During Q2 FY2024 they reached a record rule of 40 of 64% (growth rate + % EBITDA margin) indicating that PLTR is one of the healthiest SaaS startups by wide margins. View Q2-2024 results here.However, current market appraisal raises concerns for old and new investors as the market has valued the aforementioned net income growth at 200 times earnings, raising even higher the expected growth. As we will soon observe, past growth hasn't been adequate for such a valuation if we consider the tremendous equity dilution that shareholder's experienced over the past 2–3 years. Let's take a look.Quality of earningsPalantir's net income is lower than cash-flows from operations, which is an indication of high quality of earnings. But we need to further analyze CFO to find out what items were included and if any adjustments need to be made. After a brief vertical analysis on cash flows from operations, these are our findings:CFO extract (Palantir 2023 Annual Report)Stock-based compensation represented 66% of CFO. When such expense goes through the income statement but is added back to compute CFO, the result is lower earnings and higher cash-flows, which in turn indicate high quality of earnings. However, If the expense is eliminated from the income statement, the inverse takes effect. Higher net income and lower CFO, which is a characteristic of poor earnings quality.Consequently, if stock-based compensation gets eliminated, the cash flows will look poorer and earnings will be higher (and possibly inflated). It is a trade-off that needs to be carefully considered, but since it increases the cash-flow figure, it is likely that such large dilutive compensation will persist.As we can see in the below extract, from FY2022 to FY2023 another 200M shares were added to the total, driving the value of current shareholders even lower. What happens if we carefully investigate the per-share figures?In that case, shareholders haven't realized any intrinsic growth over the past 3 years. Of course, one might make the case that per-share figures don't matter since an increase/decrease in shares does not impact the top or bottom line. I have to remind you, however, that issuing shares and diluting equity is a real expense to the current shareholders as are asked to purchase more shares to offset the dilution effect.Impact of dilution on past growthTop-line expansion is not as good as it looks if we view the per-share figures:Diluted Shares - Impact on I/S (Author's Estimates)It is clear that Palantir averaged a negative -2.7% 3-year revenue per-share growth if we take into account the tremendous equity dilution. On a diluted per-share basis, shareholder's stakes shrank by 11%. On the bright side, YoY(2022-2023) retained earnings increased slightly by 3%.Investors to date have put $5.6B in the enterprise to realize about $300M from operations annually. If we assume that investment was made yesterday to harvest $300M of earnings from operations today, then the return matches the annual yield of a 3 month T-Bill.Market assumptionsEPSNew investors are asked to pay 200 times earnings, given the recent acceleration in the top line.What does a cost of $36 per share mean for Normalized GAAP Diluted EPS $0.11 (TTM) annual earnings? If we assume that 200x is a \"fair value\", GAAP Diluted EPS should grow 200% consistently for the next 5 years.Additionally, if we use 5% for the risk-free rate, which sets the fair P/E at 20, Normalized GAAP Diluted EPS should be $1.8 today to support a fair no-growth valuation.P/BOld Graham readers will recall his comments on paying a price above book value. It is generally not recommended unless the book value premium can be actually realized by the enterprise in the future. A 20x multiple indicates that there is a $76B premium that the company should earn in the future to justify a P/B of 20 bringing it down to a P/B of 1. Of course, no technology company is trading at P/B of 1 because they are perceived to have a wide competitive advantage over other companies. As a result, a P/B of 2 or 3 might be justified. But a P/B of 20 is unreasonable for a startup.Effects of Additional Paid-in Capital (APIC) on Book ValueLast Report, 2023, 2022, 2021 (Seeking Alpha)When an option is exercised, the company raises more cash, stockholders equity goes up by the same amount. This is the reason why we need to consider both figures retained earnings and APIC.We can see that during the latest report and the past 3 years, book value grew at a substantial pace. The investor should not mistake growth in book value, with capital contributed. A large part of the growth in book value was driven by more cash that the company was able to raise by exercising stock options. We can see that APIC between 2023 and Q2 2024 was increased by $341M and retained earnings by $240M for a combined $580M increase. Thus, the stock exercise in the first two quarters, grew book value by nearly 59%.Investment ConsiderationsAll things considered, the enterprise at the current growth state is not of investment quality. Given the large equity dilution, I would recommend a sell for the security. Investors can remain on the sidelines until the long-term view changes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352344288800824,"gmtCreate":1727060221708,"gmtModify":1727077922725,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> If you're still thinking not to buy and dreaming it would drop. It's OK. 😏 We will be&nbsp;laughing to the bank without you😉&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> If you're still thinking not to buy and dreaming it would drop. It's OK. 😏 We will be&nbsp;laughing to the bank without you😉&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ If you're still thinking not to buy and dreaming it would drop. It's OK. 😏 We will be laughing to the bank without you😉 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26946ddfd953e755195bde2756bfa4e0","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":103,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":40,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352344288800824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"content":"Reaching $40 tonight 😁","text":"Reaching $40 tonight 😁","html":"Reaching $40 tonight 😁"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347769456718056,"gmtCreate":1725928184424,"gmtModify":1725932726944,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;I have told all my friends to buy and hold, and I am very confident in PLTR to join S&amp;P500 🥳","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;I have told all my friends to buy and hold, and I am very confident in PLTR to join S&amp;P500 🥳","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I have told all my friends to buy and hold, and I am very confident in PLTR to join S&P500 🥳","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c1f69aaff02c3f67511a818329d2265","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":74,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347769456718056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346704347791608,"gmtCreate":1725673945614,"gmtModify":1725864706919,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;Bullish Months ago I am waiting&nbsp;for PLTR joining S&amp;P500.... $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp; Hope&nbsp;You're with me&nbsp;🥳🥳🥳","listText":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;Bullish Months ago I am waiting&nbsp;for PLTR joining S&amp;P500.... $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp; Hope&nbsp;You're with me&nbsp;🥳🥳🥳","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Bullish Months ago I am waiting for PLTR joining S&P500.... $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Hope You're with me 🥳🥳🥳","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b0e8caeec9a2729b488f2087a27ec2cc","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346704347791608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4171900329979952","authorId":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4171900329979952","authorIdStr":"4171900329979952"},"content":"It joined the 500 and congratulations 🙌! Cheers BC 🍀","text":"It joined the 500 and congratulations 🙌! Cheers BC 🍀","html":"It joined the 500 and congratulations 🙌! Cheers BC 🍀"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343036239667488,"gmtCreate":1724767447928,"gmtModify":1724767451869,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not shy? Someone is talking different 🐔 story everyday.... tomorrow will he say a Strong Buy and prepare to hit $35 ,😆😆😆😆😆","listText":"Not shy? Someone is talking different 🐔 story everyday.... tomorrow will he say a Strong Buy and prepare to hit $35 ,😆😆😆😆😆","text":"Not shy? Someone is talking different 🐔 story everyday.... tomorrow will he say a Strong Buy and prepare to hit $35 ,😆😆😆😆😆","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343036239667488","repostId":"2462128699","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2462128699","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724742004,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2462128699?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-27 15:00","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Time To Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462128699","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"In our opinion, Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current price.Our valuation model shows that the downside could be nearly 50%.We believe that Palantir is a STRONG SELL right now.nhill After we","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>In our opinion, Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current price.</p></li><li><p>Our valuation model shows that the downside could be nearly 50%.</p></li><li><p>We believe that Palantir is a STRONG SELL right now.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b043dcc871aa0570aa5a295e07696dce\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>nhill</p><p></p><p>After we released our update on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> (NYSE:PLTR) last month, the company published its earnings report for Q2 in which it reported a major boost in sales and increased the guidance. This has led to the growth of Palantir&#39;s stock, which is now over 10% up since our update was released in July. While our bearish thesis hasn&#39;t played out yet, we continue to believe that the company&#39;s stock trades at irrational levels and represents a significant downside.</p><h2 id=\"id_3734143006\">The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly</h2><p>Our recent bearish idea hasn&#39;t materialized yet since Palantir&#39;s share price has grown by over 10% thanks to the positive earnings report which showed that the company&#39;s revenues in Q2 increased by 27.2% Y/Y to $678.13 million, above the expectations by $25.71 million. The increased guidance by the management has also reignited investors&#39; confidence.</p><p>However, we still believe that the company&#39;s growth will slow down, which could prompt the share price to depreciate. If we look closely at the earnings presentation, we will see that while Palantir&#39;s US commercial revenue increased by 55% Y/Y, it increased only by 6% Q/Q. At the same time, while the US commercial count was up 83% Y/Y, it was up only 13% Q/Q.</p><p>The big annual increase could be attributed to the fact that Palantir&#39;s flagship product AIP was launched only in April 2023, so the Q2&#39;23 numbers that served as a base for comparison for the current year were not that impressive in the first place. That&#39;s why the company was able to deliver solid Y/Y growth in Q2&#39;24. We believe that a growth rate won&#39;t be as impressive going forward since the main cohort of clients has already started to use AIP in recent quarters, and we would make the case that the Q/Q numbers support our standpoint.</p><p>In addition, we believe that no matter how useful AIP is for enterprises, with a market cap of over $70 billion Palantir can&#39;t realistically be worth more than half of the entire generative AI market, which is expected to be worth $128 billion this year.</p><h2 id=\"id_552290772\">The Stock Price Continues To Make No Sense</h2><p>When we published our update on Palantir last month, we also added our valuation model, the goal of which was to figure out what is the real value of the company. That model revealed that Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value is only $13.55 per share. Since Palantir reported good numbers for Q2 last week and prompted the management to increase the guidance for the fiscal year, we decided to make some changes to our model as well to better reflect the company&#39;s opportunities and risks.</p><p>On the left side of the table below, some data has been changed, while some has remained the same as before. The tax rate and the perpetual growth rate are the same as they were in our previous valuation model. The share price at the moment of the valuation is $32.12 per share, and the cash reserves data now includes the data from Q2. The forecasted period remained the same as before as well.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 7.68%. The calculation of the discount rate is presented in the middle and the right side of the table below. To calculate the cost of debt, Palantir&#39;s TTM financial data was used. When calculating the cost of equity, we used the beta of 1, which is similar to the market&#39;s beta; the risk-free rate of 3.87%, which is the current yield of the 10-year treasury note; and the market return of 7.70%, which is the inflation-adjusted return of the S&amp;P 500 since 1950. In the end, we got a discount rate of 7.68%, which is similar to the cost of equity simply because Palantir has a relatively clean balance sheet with little total debt. This is why the cost of equity has a greater weight when figuring out the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6689a5abc7731ae238c621be3acf0a42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"188\"/></p><p>Valuation Model (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p></p><p>When it comes to the forecast of Palantir&#39;s sales and earnings, we&#39;ve changed several things. First, we have increased Palantir&#39;s sales expectations for the fiscal year 2024 to $2.75 billion, which is on the higher end of the management&#39;s latest guidance. We also assumed a sales growth rate of 25% in the following period, which is higher than the current expectations. It is done to simply ensure that our model covers a potential increase in guidance as it happened recently when the Q2 report came in and the analysts started to revise their estimates.</p><p>We have also aggressively increased the EBIT assumptions for the upcoming years from the 35% rate that was used in the previous model to 43.1% in the current model. The explanation for it is simple. As generative AI tools and platforms become more popular and able to improve the companies&#39; margins, it makes sense to assume that the earnings are going to improve as well.</p><p>If we look at Microsoft Corporation&#39;s (MSFT) financial statement, we will see that the company has greatly improved its sales and earnings in recent quarters in large thanks to the launch of its generative AI assistant Copilot. Microsoft&#39;s CEO Satya Nadella in the latest conference call also called Palantir one of the leaders of the Models as a Service business, which is experiencing an increase in usage of its products. This indicates that AIP&#39;s and Copilot&#39;s enterprise clients likely have a lot in common. That&#39;s why after we divided Microsoft&#39;s EBIT of $27.93 billion for the recent quarter by its revenues of $64.73 billion, we found out that Microsoft&#39;s EBIT accounts for 43.1% of its revenues and decided to apply the same rate to Palantir as well. By doing so, we could once again ensure that the model properly covers a potential increase in guidance. The forecast for other things remained the same as before.</p><p>Once found the present value of FCF under our new forecast, we can calculate the cumulative present value of FCF, apply the discount rate and the perpetual growth rate from before, and figure out Palantir&#39;s terminal value, the present value of the terminal value, and the enterprise value, which in our case is $36.75 billion. After that, we add the cash resources to the enterprise value and don&#39;t subtract any long-term debt because there isn&#39;t any to calculate Palantir&#39;s equity value, which in our case is $40.75 billion. We then divide the equity value by the number of shares at the end of Q2 and find out that Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value is $16.88 per share. This means that the company is currently overvalued by nearly 50%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e10fa981f83bbf684a18e8fdf42ab864\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>Valuation Model (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p></p><p>While Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value in this model increased by over 300 basis points in comparison to our latest model from July, it nevertheless helped us figure out an important thing. By applying optimistic assumptions for the sales and EBIT, we can figure out what is Palantir&#39;s ceiling in terms of its performance and why even under the optimistic assumptions the company remains significantly overvalued. That&#39;s why giving Palantir a STRONG SELL recommendation is the only viable option in our opinion as the current stock price continues to make no sense for us.</p><h2 id=\"id_1667534137\">Major Downside to Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>One thing that seasoned investors know for a fact is that the market can stay irrational longer than they could remain solvent. The story of Palantir&#39;s price action proves this point. Fundamentally, Palantir is extremely overvalued as it has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 100x. However, the stock could continue to trade above the technical support level of $30 per share.</p><p>In our opinion, two things can undermine Palantir&#39;s current momentum. The first thing is the worsening of macro conditions, which could result in the overall market selloff and push Palantir&#39;s price lower closer to its intrinsic value. The second thing is a much lower Y/Y growth of revenues and customer count, which could undermine investors&#39; confidence. Given a much weaker Q/Q growth, this could happen later this year or at the beginning of next year. That is why we believe that Palantir continues to be a STRONG SELL, but it can take a while before the fundamentals begin to matter again.</p><h2 id=\"id_2601506736\">Our Short Strategy</h2><p>In our latest article from July, we disclosed that we are short on Palantir. Back then we saw that the stock was losing its momentum and has hit an important technical resistance level. We opened that position around the time that article was published in the range between $28 and $29 per share and continue to hold it to this day. The position is shares-only, and no put options are involved.</p><p>The chart below shows that after more than a year of depreciation, Palantir&#39;s shares began to rebound in the spring of 2023 primarily thanks to the entrance of the company into the generative AI field with the launch of AIP. However, in 2024, the performance was mixed, as the shares were unable to breach an important technical resistance level of $30 per share first at the start of the year and later earlier this summer, and were trading within a closed range.</p><p>A week after our article was published, the shares depreciated to below $23 per share but were still within the closed range that&#39;s shown between the dotted lines on the chart below. Our thinking was that without a major catalyst, the share price could collapse below that range and depreciate closer to the company&#39;s fair value. However, the earnings results in early August came better than expected and the guidance was improved, which pushed the shares higher to above the $30 per share level at which Palantir currently trades.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9c42bba412da79901ef930159ff44c1d\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p>Stock Performance (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>There are several ways to go from here now. If Palantir fails to hold above $30 per share for longer and fails to go above the closed dotted range, then we have a good chance of the stock depreciating to its previous technical support levels which would be much harder to hold without another major catalyst. If the stock price goes higher, then the next major resistance level would be close to the company&#39;s all-time high level of $39 per share.</p><p>In the first scenario, our goal would be to start taking profits at around $20 per share and possibly below, which is relatively close to the intrinsic value of the company in our model. In the second scenario, we plan to exit the position at a loss above $39 per share, wait for the establishment of new support and resistance levels, and only then reenter the short trade since we believe that the growth of Palantir&#39;s stock can&#39;t last forever.</p><p>Since shorting is always risky, we decided to deploy less than 5% of our portfolio capital for this trade as there&#39;s always a possibility that the share price will remain irrational for a while.</p><p>If the stock continues to trade around $30 per share, then we will continue to hold our short position until the price goes significantly up or down. The annual percentage rate of borrowing is less than 1%, so we believe that the risks associated with shorting Palantir are worth it for us right now, as the potential reward could be significant.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Time To Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Time To Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-27 15:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717101-palantir-time-to-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In our opinion, Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current price.Our valuation model shows that the downside could be nearly 50%.We believe that Palantir is a STRONG SELL right now.nhillAfter we ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717101-palantir-time-to-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) ACC","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE0009G5SDU7.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IE000ITXATA3.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE000YTNTUN2.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG)INC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4576":"AR","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4538":"云计算","BK4543":"AI","BK4577":"网络游戏","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717101-palantir-time-to-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2462128699","content_text":"In our opinion, Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current price.Our valuation model shows that the downside could be nearly 50%.We believe that Palantir is a STRONG SELL right now.nhillAfter we released our update on Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) last month, the company published its earnings report for Q2 in which it reported a major boost in sales and increased the guidance. This has led to the growth of Palantir's stock, which is now over 10% up since our update was released in July. While our bearish thesis hasn't played out yet, we continue to believe that the company's stock trades at irrational levels and represents a significant downside.The Good, The Bad, and the UglyOur recent bearish idea hasn't materialized yet since Palantir's share price has grown by over 10% thanks to the positive earnings report which showed that the company's revenues in Q2 increased by 27.2% Y/Y to $678.13 million, above the expectations by $25.71 million. The increased guidance by the management has also reignited investors' confidence.However, we still believe that the company's growth will slow down, which could prompt the share price to depreciate. If we look closely at the earnings presentation, we will see that while Palantir's US commercial revenue increased by 55% Y/Y, it increased only by 6% Q/Q. At the same time, while the US commercial count was up 83% Y/Y, it was up only 13% Q/Q.The big annual increase could be attributed to the fact that Palantir's flagship product AIP was launched only in April 2023, so the Q2'23 numbers that served as a base for comparison for the current year were not that impressive in the first place. That's why the company was able to deliver solid Y/Y growth in Q2'24. We believe that a growth rate won't be as impressive going forward since the main cohort of clients has already started to use AIP in recent quarters, and we would make the case that the Q/Q numbers support our standpoint.In addition, we believe that no matter how useful AIP is for enterprises, with a market cap of over $70 billion Palantir can't realistically be worth more than half of the entire generative AI market, which is expected to be worth $128 billion this year.The Stock Price Continues To Make No SenseWhen we published our update on Palantir last month, we also added our valuation model, the goal of which was to figure out what is the real value of the company. That model revealed that Palantir's intrinsic value is only $13.55 per share. Since Palantir reported good numbers for Q2 last week and prompted the management to increase the guidance for the fiscal year, we decided to make some changes to our model as well to better reflect the company's opportunities and risks.On the left side of the table below, some data has been changed, while some has remained the same as before. The tax rate and the perpetual growth rate are the same as they were in our previous valuation model. The share price at the moment of the valuation is $32.12 per share, and the cash reserves data now includes the data from Q2. The forecasted period remained the same as before as well.The discount rate in our valuation model is 7.68%. The calculation of the discount rate is presented in the middle and the right side of the table below. To calculate the cost of debt, Palantir's TTM financial data was used. When calculating the cost of equity, we used the beta of 1, which is similar to the market's beta; the risk-free rate of 3.87%, which is the current yield of the 10-year treasury note; and the market return of 7.70%, which is the inflation-adjusted return of the S&P 500 since 1950. In the end, we got a discount rate of 7.68%, which is similar to the cost of equity simply because Palantir has a relatively clean balance sheet with little total debt. This is why the cost of equity has a greater weight when figuring out the discount rate.Valuation Model (Bears of Wall Street)When it comes to the forecast of Palantir's sales and earnings, we've changed several things. First, we have increased Palantir's sales expectations for the fiscal year 2024 to $2.75 billion, which is on the higher end of the management's latest guidance. We also assumed a sales growth rate of 25% in the following period, which is higher than the current expectations. It is done to simply ensure that our model covers a potential increase in guidance as it happened recently when the Q2 report came in and the analysts started to revise their estimates.We have also aggressively increased the EBIT assumptions for the upcoming years from the 35% rate that was used in the previous model to 43.1% in the current model. The explanation for it is simple. As generative AI tools and platforms become more popular and able to improve the companies' margins, it makes sense to assume that the earnings are going to improve as well.If we look at Microsoft Corporation's (MSFT) financial statement, we will see that the company has greatly improved its sales and earnings in recent quarters in large thanks to the launch of its generative AI assistant Copilot. Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella in the latest conference call also called Palantir one of the leaders of the Models as a Service business, which is experiencing an increase in usage of its products. This indicates that AIP's and Copilot's enterprise clients likely have a lot in common. That's why after we divided Microsoft's EBIT of $27.93 billion for the recent quarter by its revenues of $64.73 billion, we found out that Microsoft's EBIT accounts for 43.1% of its revenues and decided to apply the same rate to Palantir as well. By doing so, we could once again ensure that the model properly covers a potential increase in guidance. The forecast for other things remained the same as before.Once found the present value of FCF under our new forecast, we can calculate the cumulative present value of FCF, apply the discount rate and the perpetual growth rate from before, and figure out Palantir's terminal value, the present value of the terminal value, and the enterprise value, which in our case is $36.75 billion. After that, we add the cash resources to the enterprise value and don't subtract any long-term debt because there isn't any to calculate Palantir's equity value, which in our case is $40.75 billion. We then divide the equity value by the number of shares at the end of Q2 and find out that Palantir's intrinsic value is $16.88 per share. This means that the company is currently overvalued by nearly 50%.Valuation Model (Bears of Wall Street)While Palantir's intrinsic value in this model increased by over 300 basis points in comparison to our latest model from July, it nevertheless helped us figure out an important thing. By applying optimistic assumptions for the sales and EBIT, we can figure out what is Palantir's ceiling in terms of its performance and why even under the optimistic assumptions the company remains significantly overvalued. That's why giving Palantir a STRONG SELL recommendation is the only viable option in our opinion as the current stock price continues to make no sense for us.Major Downside to Our Bearish ThesisOne thing that seasoned investors know for a fact is that the market can stay irrational longer than they could remain solvent. The story of Palantir's price action proves this point. Fundamentally, Palantir is extremely overvalued as it has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 100x. However, the stock could continue to trade above the technical support level of $30 per share.In our opinion, two things can undermine Palantir's current momentum. The first thing is the worsening of macro conditions, which could result in the overall market selloff and push Palantir's price lower closer to its intrinsic value. The second thing is a much lower Y/Y growth of revenues and customer count, which could undermine investors' confidence. Given a much weaker Q/Q growth, this could happen later this year or at the beginning of next year. That is why we believe that Palantir continues to be a STRONG SELL, but it can take a while before the fundamentals begin to matter again.Our Short StrategyIn our latest article from July, we disclosed that we are short on Palantir. Back then we saw that the stock was losing its momentum and has hit an important technical resistance level. We opened that position around the time that article was published in the range between $28 and $29 per share and continue to hold it to this day. The position is shares-only, and no put options are involved.The chart below shows that after more than a year of depreciation, Palantir's shares began to rebound in the spring of 2023 primarily thanks to the entrance of the company into the generative AI field with the launch of AIP. However, in 2024, the performance was mixed, as the shares were unable to breach an important technical resistance level of $30 per share first at the start of the year and later earlier this summer, and were trading within a closed range.A week after our article was published, the shares depreciated to below $23 per share but were still within the closed range that's shown between the dotted lines on the chart below. Our thinking was that without a major catalyst, the share price could collapse below that range and depreciate closer to the company's fair value. However, the earnings results in early August came better than expected and the guidance was improved, which pushed the shares higher to above the $30 per share level at which Palantir currently trades.Stock Performance (Seeking Alpha)There are several ways to go from here now. If Palantir fails to hold above $30 per share for longer and fails to go above the closed dotted range, then we have a good chance of the stock depreciating to its previous technical support levels which would be much harder to hold without another major catalyst. If the stock price goes higher, then the next major resistance level would be close to the company's all-time high level of $39 per share.In the first scenario, our goal would be to start taking profits at around $20 per share and possibly below, which is relatively close to the intrinsic value of the company in our model. In the second scenario, we plan to exit the position at a loss above $39 per share, wait for the establishment of new support and resistance levels, and only then reenter the short trade since we believe that the growth of Palantir's stock can't last forever.Since shorting is always risky, we decided to deploy less than 5% of our portfolio capital for this trade as there's always a possibility that the share price will remain irrational for a while.If the stock continues to trade around $30 per share, then we will continue to hold our short position until the price goes significantly up or down. The annual percentage rate of borrowing is less than 1%, so we believe that the risks associated with shorting Palantir are worth it for us right now, as the potential reward could be significant.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342597241024736,"gmtCreate":1724684546155,"gmtModify":1724684549879,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻 what are you talking about 🦜&nbsp;","listText":"👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻 what are you talking about 🦜&nbsp;","text":"👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻 what are you talking about 🦜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342597241024736","repostId":"2461374296","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2461374296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724643065,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2461374296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-26 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461374296","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.</p></li><li><p>NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to 20%, unveil a $30 to $50 billion buyback, and potentially raise the dividend again.</p></li><li><p>Market options are pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing after earnings, and 5% to 15% is likely, given channel checks and 2024 fundamentals.</p></li><li><p>Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect over $225 billion in sales in 2025, and NVDA has the potential to beat FCF estimates by 50% next year.</p></li><li><p>NVDA&#39;s current estimates justify a 16% rally by year-end, 39% by the end of 2025, and potentially as much as 140% by the end of next year.</p></li><li><p>The current consensus total return potential is 23% to 28% annually through 2029, about 300% total return potential, roughly 4X more than the S&amp;P.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d22057eb1489b30e626df04aa8235a7f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Deagreez</p><p>For Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) investors, it&#39;s been a volatile few weeks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3eac5181a580805cb6ad1dfa56e7b91b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8f31eb5cb3f9d4f5c49917c86f95e83f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>From its record high of $140, NVDA fell to an intraday low of $90 on Aug. 5, during the Yen Carry Trade unwind.</p><p>That&#39;s a 35% peak decline in a matter of weeks.</p><p>And then, from those lows, that panic-selling bottom NVDA soared 45% to $130 before pulling back a bit on Tuesday.</p><p><strong>I Was &#34;Greedy When Others Were Fearful&#34; During The Recent Market Pullback</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/deea900a18efe8b61dced45203751fe1\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"558\"/></p><p>Morningstar</p><p>I use limit orders to keep the target allocation for each stock steady during corrections. Thanks to NVDA&#39;s normal volatility, which fell 2.35X as much as the S&amp;P in this pullback (and 3.5X peak intraday decline), I could buy 650 shares of NVDA going into earnings.</p><p>I didn&#39;t nail the bottom, just over $90 on Aug. 5, but I got close.</p><p>Was I worried as these limits filled? Not at all because I was tracking NVDA&#39;s fundamentals each day and could see that, despite the market panic triggered by hedge fund margin calls and algo trades, NVDA&#39;s future was brighter than ever.</p><p>So let me share the three reasons I bought so much NVDA in recent weeks, going into earnings. More importantly, these three reasons explain why it&#39;s still a potentially good idea for long-term dividend growth investors to buy NVDA even after its strong 40% recovery from its recent lows.</p><h2 id=\"id_1928948722\">Reason 1: Big Beat And Raise Likely During Aug. 28 Earnings</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe73882f9d45c88ba5afd9f998655c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>NVDA reports on Wed, Aug. 28, after the close.</p><p>As usual, earnings estimates have steadily risen by the week, with 37 upward revisions this quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a54a6e424a2db68eb5127a62b6f7072d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3704d62e8b8a9249625bf0af81fd6bb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>NVDA&#39;s track record for beating earnings is perfect over the last two quarters since the company is supply constrained.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, the average sales beat and raise over the last six quarters is 12.5%.</p><p>Taiwan Semi (TSM) says it&#39;s increasing wafer production by 150% in 2024 and 100% in 2025, but thinks that NVDA will remain supply constrained through the end of 2025.</p><p>Regarding its No. 1 supplier, TSM announced 45% sales growth courtesy of insatiable AI chip demand.</p><p><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong>: Analysts at Goldman Sachs are confident that Nvidia will surpass Street consensus for revenue and earnings per share, driven by robust Data Center revenues and operational leverage. They maintain a &#34;buy&#34; recommendation, highlighting Nvidia&#39;s competitive edge in AI and accelerated computing.</p><p><strong>Jefferies</strong>: Analysts at Jefferies expect Nvidia to continue delivering earnings beats, although the magnitude of these surprises may be smaller than in previous quarters. They anticipate a strong earnings report for July, with guidance into October expected to exceed expectations by about $1 billion.</p><p><strong>Wedbush Securities</strong>: Wedbush maintains confidence in Nvidia&#39;s ability to report a strong quarter, citing robust AI spending as a critical driver. They expect Nvidia&#39;s earnings to be bolstered by increased investment from significant customers in AI infrastructure.</p><p>Morningstar and Morgan Stanley estimate 15% to 17% sales beats and raises, and KeyBank is similarly bullish, especially for 2025.</p><p>All of the hyperscalers, the tech giants driving 50% of sales for NVDA right now, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN), have announced they are increasing AI capex this year and next year.</p><p>That likely means that NVDA could sell 100% of production at full prices and record margins.</p><h2 id=\"id_811311096\">2025 Outlook Is Soaring</h2><blockquote><p>In terms of figures, Team Green is expected to ship 60,000 to 70,000 units of Nvidia&#39;s GB200 AI servers, and given that one server is reported to cost around $2 million to $3 million per unit, this means that Team Green will bag in around a whopping $210 billion from just Blackwell servers along, that too in a year.&#34; - Morgan Stanley</p></blockquote><p>KeyBank has similar estimates of &#34;at least $210 billion&#34; in Blackwell sales alone in 2025.</p><p>Now that NVDA has announced a delay in Blackwell shipments (which were supposed to start shipping in Q4), 2024 Blackwell shipments may be pushed into 2025.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>3 Reasons I Bought Nvidia Before Earnings</p></li></ul><p>As I explained in my last pre-earnings update, NVDA&#39;s potential sales in 2025, per TSMC&#39;s supply ramp, is <strong>up to $265 billion.</strong></p><p>KeyBank and Morgan Stanley now estimate $210-plus billion in Blackwell sales alone. Remember that Hopper isn&#39;t going away; it will be a lower-cost option.</p><p>$265 billion is the maximum theoretical revenue that NVDA could achieve if TSM&#39;s ramp is successful and they can sell 100% of capacity at full price.</p><p>Before the Blackwell delay announcement, Morgan and KeyBank estimated $210 billion in Blackwell sales, not including other chips, auxiliary hardware, or NIMS (software).</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Management is guiding for 110% annual software sales through 2030.</p></li><li><p>To $60 billion in annual sales by 2030.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d4454022ee542f0385b00cca8bf09969\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"558\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>The current consensus is $164 billion in 2025 sales, up from $160 billion a few weeks ago and $150 billion at the start of the year.</p><p>NVDA can theoretically sell up to $265 billion next year, and Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect around $230 billion.</p><p>What does that mean for potential free cash flow, beating expectations?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2abcfe5aaa2da5574850f6338013d37f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>Assuming stable 49% free cash flow margins (analysts expect this), potentially representing $65 to $70 billion in sales beat and <strong>$114 billion in free cash flow next year.</strong></p><p>The current consensus is $78 billion, representing a 46% free cash flow beat next year. $114 billion in FCF would be 13% higher than the $101 billion in 2026 FCF analysts currently expect.</p><p><strong>Nvidia Fair Value Profile</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Aug. 21: $132.83 (4.4% upside)</p></li><li><p>Year-end 2024 (current consensus): $148.12 (16% upside)</p></li><li><p><strong><em>Year-end 2025 (current consensus): (39% upside)</em></strong></p></li><li><p>Mid 2025 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario): <strong>$250 to $275 (106% upside)</strong></p></li><li><p><strong><em>Year-end 2026: $307.24 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario:) 141% upside</em></strong></p></li></ul><p>The current analyst base case is that NVDA will have almost 40% upside by the end of next year. If NVDA achieves the maximum growth numbers that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect, there is as much as 141% upside return potential, which is justified by fundamentals.</p><p>Goldman Sachs thinks AI will start to affect GDP growth in 2027 and corporate profits potentially in 2026.</p><p>In other words, 2024 and 2025 are about supply constraints, with hyper-scalers seemingly willing to buy 100% of NVDA capacity (as well as some AMD and INTC AI chips).</p><p>In 2026 and 2027, the years of Rubin and Rubin Ultra chip platforms, NVDA expects hyperscalers to be a minor part of its business as other companies and governments (sovereign AI) continue buying the best chips (for cost efficiency).</p><h2 id=\"id_4170491251\">Reason 2: Long-Term Outlook Keeps Getting Stronger</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/adcc5d7ee4ea1a7b8865ec031674389b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>The median growth consensus for NVDA is 44.1%, up from 40% a few weeks ago and 33% three months ago.</p><p>Long-term EPS growth estimates range from 10% to 54%, with 44.1% being the median.</p><p>Here&#39;s what that looks like in the medium term.</p><p><strong>Nvidia Medium-Term Growth Consensus Forecast</strong></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Sales</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBITDA</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBIT (Operating Income)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Net Income</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$58,039</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$25,051</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$33,240</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$34,748</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$27,603</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$115,536</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$57,624</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$74,897</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$75,564</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$61,025</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$163,532</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$78,290</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$106,824</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$107,248</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$85,132</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$194,395</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$94,500</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$131,407</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$126,724</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$105,058</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$227,147</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$114,526</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$147,514</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$121,372</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$263,891</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$159,219</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$140,294</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$271,796</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$175,244</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$146,898</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Annualized Growth 2024-2029</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>29.3%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>46.2%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>58.1%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>31.0%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>32.1%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Cumulative 2024-2029</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$1,236,297</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$344,940</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$313,128</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$791,513</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$659,779</strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>Free cash flow is growing at almost 50% per year.</p><p>And remember, this is the current consensus. If NVDA achieves $114 billion in FCF next year, as Morgan Stanley thinks is possible, then NVDA will have achieved 2027 results in 2025.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVDA is currently pricing in -2 or -3 years of potential growth if it achieves what Morgan Stanley and KeyBank do next year.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Nvidia Margin Consensus Forecast</strong></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FCF Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBITDA Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBIT (Operating) Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Net Margin</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>57.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>59.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.6%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.8%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.8%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>67.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>50.4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.4%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>60.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.2%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annualized Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>4.0%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>5.7%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>1.2%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2.2%</strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>&#34;Nvidia&#39;s margins can&#39;t possibly be maintained for long.&#34;</p><p>Not according to the median consensus of 62 analysts who cover it for a living and have access to channel checks and data that YouTube prognosticators can&#39;t even dream of.</p><p>Why is that plausible? Because Nvidia&#39;s value proposition to customers is long-term overall operating costs.</p><p>Microsoft is one of the largest GPUs, AI, and cloud computing infrastructure buyers.</p><p>Do you think MSFT minds paying $35K to $40K for the world&#39;s most advanced AI chips if it means that long-term operating costs per token are 50% to 75% lower than what cheaper but less advanced chips can achieve?</p><p>The world&#39;s wealthiest companies can easily afford to take the long-term view, and Nvidia is guiding for at least 50% reductions in cost/token computing costs each year after 2025.</p><p>In other words, NVDA is already the low-cost leader in long-term AI operating costs. For example, Blackwell is 4X better at training and 30X at inference (operating AI models) than Hopper.</p><p>Hopper replaced the Ampere generation of AI chips and was 9X better at training and 30X better at inference than Ampere.</p><p>In other words, between the A100 chips and B200 chips, NVDA has improved training capacity by 36X and inference by 900X.</p><p>And here&#39;s why that matters. Most companies don&#39;t need to do 900X faster inferencing. At some point, speed isn&#39;t as important as energy and cost.</p><p>In the next decade, Jensen Huang says Nvidia can help accelerate computing power in AI by one million-fold.</p><p>For a company like MSFT or OpenAI, it might be optimal to try to have the best LMM, such as Project Stargate (a 10 million GPU model in 2028 costing over $100 billion), 1 million times faster for the same cost and energy.</p><p>Today&#39;s AI inference speed might be fine for others but at 1 million times lower cost (per token).</p><p>For some countries, the goal might be to achieve 1 million times lower energy (and cost) with the same speed as today.</p><p>Or, for most companies, 1000X faster AI computing for 1000X lower cost (and 1000X lower energy usage) might be the ideal sweet spot.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3556749b3d37a2bcac03cba1bb640cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>NVDA spends $10 billion annually on R&amp;D, and that is expected to continue growing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a3e393c461d7f4f64d80a6a11be1dc6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>NVDA&#39;s R&amp;D spending is expected to triple to $30 billion in 2029. The company&#39;s historical median 20% to 25% free cash flow return on invested capital means its growth spending is highly efficient.</p><p>In the last year, the free cash flow return on invested capital reached 87%. That isn&#39;t sustainable, but for now, the more Nvidia spends, the faster it grows.</p><blockquote><p>The more you buy the more you save.&#34; - Jensen Huang&#39;s sales pitch at keynotes</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b16784118d501e9a61ea72a0991bc002\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\"/></p><p>Glassdoor</p><p>Since 2022, NVDA has been rated among the top five companies to work for, and its workers consider Jensen Huang the fourth-best CEO.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/17cd68b32e5c86dc14a191362ceb6166\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"817\"/></p><p>Blind</p><p>76% of NVDA employees are millionaires.</p><p>If you&#39;re a world-class AI computer engineer, do you want to work for Intel? Or a thriving industry leader whose CEO is hailed as a genius?</p><p>Happy, productive employees who are getting richer than they ever dreamed of are another reason to ride strong with Jensen Huang.</p><p><strong>Jensen Huang Owns 3.5% Of NVDA And Is The 12th Richest Person On Earth.</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9df89c5aa021d7e8f207a4aba132ad77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Jensen Huang has been CEO for 30 years (he co-founded the company). He says he plans to remain CEO for 30 to 40 more years.</p><p>If he can keep his finger on the pulse of future tech as well as he has for the last 30 years, Huang would be a potential Buffett of tech.</p><h2 id=\"id_170916229\">Nvidia Is A Dividend Growth Dream Stock</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Metric</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Total Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$4,097.79</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$925.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$447.31</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Inflation-Adjusted Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$2,145.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$484.74</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$234.19</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Starting Yield</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.18%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Yield On Cost</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>89.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.96%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>46.68%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>4.28%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>3.12%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Annual Income Growth</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30.6%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>NVDA didn&#39;t start paying a dividend until 2012. And the dividend was low and frozen for years. Yet, NVDA has delivered 4X as much inflation-adjusted income as the S&amp;P and almost 10X more than the Nasdaq.</p><p>Income investors who have owned NVDA since the beginning now see an inflation-adjusted 47% yield on cost. Analysts say every $1000 invested at the IPO now pays $470 yearly in dividends, likely to grow 40% to 50% annually.</p><h2 id=\"id_3538347583\">Reason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable Price</h2><p>No one denies that Nvidia is an amazingly innovative or fast-growing company.</p><p>The major concern many investors have is whether it&#39;s overvalued.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7e88dfddc67d0ddaaafa7c5ddaa526e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>NVDA is trading at 38.87X forward earnings.</p><p>Its free cash flow yield (EV/FCF) is 40.3X next year&#39;s estimates, representing a forward cash-adjusted PEG ratio of 0.91. Its current PEG ratio, which is measured the traditional way, is 0.95.</p><p>So Peter Lynch would say that as long as NVDA keeps growing as expected, it will grow at a reasonable price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2254745276\">Nvidia Objective Market Determined Fair Value Profile</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Time Frame (Years)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Average PE</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Average P/FCF</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annual EPS Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annual FCF Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EPS PEG</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FCF PEG</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.25</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.78</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.34</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.01</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.97</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.23</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.08</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.27</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.02</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.95</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.93</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.34</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.26</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.99</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.06</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.41</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.56</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.03</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>42.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.79</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.87</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.91</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.65</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.03</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.66</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.31</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.05</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.83</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38.49</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.68</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.38</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.12</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.84</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>41.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44.57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.01</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44.18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46.15</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.96</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>42.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.69</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.80</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.02</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.48</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.31</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>62.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.62</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.08</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.08</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.75</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>58.05</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.33</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.28</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>59.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>50.89</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>51.53</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>67.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>72.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>58.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.16</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>82.81</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>73.13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>79.72</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>87.25</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>70.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>83.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>92.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>288.38</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>614.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.15</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.3645</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>50.426</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>59.4925</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>72.697</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>0.89</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>1.06</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>38.99</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.66</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>47.84</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.94</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>0.88</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>1.08</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><em>2030 FCF Consensus</em></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><em>$154,421.06</em></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Current Market Cap</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$2,420,000.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2029 Fair Value</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Annualized Return Potential</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Median)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$6,587,602.59</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Increase In Value (Median)</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>172.21%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$350.09</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>22.25%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Average)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$7,786,836.57</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Increase In Value (Average)</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>221.77%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$412.86</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>26.35%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>A PEG of 1 is what NVDA has historically traded at for the last 20 years. That&#39;s not opinion. It&#39;s objective market fact. So, if NVDA trades at a PEG of 1, it&#39;s objectively not overvalued.</p><p>The first 2030 sales estimates are $307 billion, or 17.8% annualized from 2024 to 2030.</p><p>That means a historical fair value of $6.6 trillion to $7.8 trillion or 172% to 222% consensus fundamentally justified fair value by the end of 2029.</p><p>That would translate into 22% to 27% annualized returns for the next 5.5 years.</p><p>Remember, these are the current consensus estimates, which rise with each quarterly beat and raise.</p><h2 id=\"id_1005571806\">Risks To Consider: Why Nvidia Isn&#39;t Right For Everyone</h2><p>Options markets are currently pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing post earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea024618bf310da9de53b8fa37c04d71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\"/></p><p>Reuters</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean NVDA will go up or down 9%. I expect a 5% to 15% pop, but up to a 25% upward move might occur if NVDA pulls off a big enough beat and raise.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s epic gains have been justified by record fundamental growth.</p><p>And the bear markets this year, which have been 25% and 35%, respectively, have not been justified by fundamentals.</p><p>It&#39;s easy to be &#34;greedy when others are fearful&#34; when all the fundamentals are strong. But what happens when NVDA&#39;s earnings decline?</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Years</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EPS Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Peak Decline</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-82%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-78.9%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2013 to 2014</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-30.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-62.8%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-36%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-48.4%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-24%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-46.4%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer, FAST Graphs, FactSet)</em></p><p>In the last 15 years, NVDA&#39;s median EPS decline has resulted in a 24% earnings recession.</p><p>The market&#39;s median reaction is a nearly 50% sell-off.</p><p>If smaller language models prove as effective as LMMs or specialized chips better than GPUs, it could disrupt NVDA&#39;s current AI lead.</p><p>New types of chips are indeed being developed to outperform traditional GPUs specifically for AI tasks. These include specialized AI chips, such as Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), designed to handle AI workloads more efficiently than general-purpose GPUs.</p><p><strong>ASICs</strong>: These are custom-designed chips optimized for specific applications, including AI. They offer higher efficiency and performance for particular tasks compared to general-purpose GPUs. For example, Google&#39;s TPU is an ASIC designed to accelerate machine learning workloads.</p><p><strong>TPUs</strong>: Developed by Google, TPUs are specifically designed to accelerate machine learning tasks. They are optimized for TensorFlow, Google&#39;s machine learning framework, and provide significant performance improvements for AI applications.</p><p><strong>FPGAs</strong>: Field-Programmable Gate Arrays are another type of AI chip that can be configured for specific tasks. They offer flexibility and can be optimized for various AI workloads, although they may not always match the raw performance of ASICs or TPUs.</p><p>These specialized AI chips are designed to handle the massive parallel processing required for AI tasks more efficiently than GPUs. They achieve this by optimizing for lower precision arithmetic, which reduces the number of transistors needed and, thus, the energy consumption while maintaining the necessary performance for AI algorithms. This makes them particularly suitable for applications like large language models, edge AI, and autonomous vehicles, where efficiency and speed are critical.</p><p>NVDA must maintain its lead in AI tech. If it loses the ability to offer the lowest long-term cost option, then the bullish thesis will be thrown out the window.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99b6b6beb6b28bea17e0c91b56174fd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer</p><p>Here are the largest ten bear markets for NVDA.</p><p>And here&#39;s how volatile this hyper-volatility, hyper-growth blue chip is.</p><h2 id=\"id_2906987552\">10% Worst Monthly Returns</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P 500</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Month</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-48.66%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13.12%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.38%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2008</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>7</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-38.89%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>0.64%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.90%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-35.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.62%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.88%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-35.14%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.16%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-34.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.47%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-32.81%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.09%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.66%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-32.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13.60%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.78%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-31.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.84%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-27.72%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-11.89%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.05%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-25.07%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.23%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.38%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.60%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.91%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.67%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.55%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.22%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.21%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9.61%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.35%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.94%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.47%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.41%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.79%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2018</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>11</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-22.40%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.26%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>1.85%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2010</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.17%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.99%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.89%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.53%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.01%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.82%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2006</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.36%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.24%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.01%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.04%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.85%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-4.94%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2011</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.46%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.69%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.43%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.05%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.92%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.55%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-10.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.49%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.80%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2011</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>3</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-18.53%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.45%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>0.01%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.65%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.79%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.21%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-15.47%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-16.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2005</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.04%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.83%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-25.30%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-7.96%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-4.81%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-22.40%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-8.23%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-5.17%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>In the last 25 years, NVDA has had 24 20%-plus monthly declines. It&#39;s fallen by almost 50% in a single month.</p><p>It&#39;s fallen as much as 40% in a month while the S&amp;P and Nasdaq were flat!</p><p>If you can&#39;t tolerate such volatility and harness it to buy more when sentiment is at its worst, you will miss out on gains like these.</p><h2 id=\"id_3661157528\">10% Best Monthly Returns</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P 500</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Month</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2003</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>82.62%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.52%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.48%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>72.68%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.57%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>57.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.45%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.50%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11.79%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.74%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.30%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2011</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>55.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.33%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-17.49%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.60%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.95%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.17%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.91%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.47%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.23%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.90%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.41%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.34%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.46%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>24.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.63%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.69%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.64%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.29%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.29%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13.63%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.60%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.45%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.01%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.58%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9.69%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2016</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.37%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.70%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2006</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.77%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.18%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2016</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>29.76%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.44%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.68%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.58%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.22%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.04%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.05%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.57%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.81%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.80%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.96%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.80%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.76%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.64%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.89%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.06%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2005</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.09%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.94%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.98%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25.41%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.56%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>38.63%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>7.52%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>3.52%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>32.29%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>6.15%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>4.45%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>NVDA&#39;s 10% best months are a median 32% gain, with returns as strong as 82% in a single month.</p><p>Can you see the benefits of rebalancing in real time during bear markets using managed futures and limit orders?</p><p>The 40% monthly crashes are what create the 82% monthly rallies. If your optimal NVDA allocation is 5% and falls to 40%, you can buy with limits and keep it at 5% the entire time. And so when that face-ripping rally comes around, when NVDA overshoots to the bottom, you end up with maximum benefit.</p><p>Then, at annual rebalancing time, you can harvest those excess returns, including bubble excess valuations, to buy high-yield blue chips to compound income even faster.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/75602ba57743d090b88e1c3c02805c91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"592\"/></p><p>DK</p><p>This is why I am so bullish on NVDA. Not just for the growth, I don&#39;t care about growth. I care about total returns because income tracks total returns due to annual rebalancing.</p><p>By harvesting the yield generated by NVDA&#39;s extreme volatility, long-term NVDA investors can maximize long-term inflation-adjusted income.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7435f5638696097962ff9f887dc9f790\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer</p><p>NVDA&#39;s 5% worst months are 30% monthly declines, 3X worse than the S&amp;P&#39;s 10% worst 5% of months, and 2X worse than the Nasdaq&#39;s 15% worst monthly returns.</p><p>NVDA has historically captured 329% of the S&amp;P&#39;s upside in exchange for 183% of its downside when stocks fall.</p><p>It delivered safe 26% withdrawal rates, though no investor would ever be 100% NVDA as a retirement plan.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b926948bee47b2ae775fc6fde67d425c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\"/></p><p>Managed Futures = KMLM (since Jan 2021) (Portfolio Visualizer)</p><p>By combining NVDA with managed futures, you can adjust its volatility to what you can emotionally and financially stand.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>KMLM: 5 Reasons You Might Want To Buy This 8.2% Yielding ETF</p></li></ul><p>For example, a 50% NVDA and 50% KMLM stock bucket captured 189% of the S&amp;P&#39;s upside with 22% of its downside.</p><p>25% NVDA and 75% KMLM captured the market, 91% of the S&amp;P upside, with a 26% downside.</p><p>That means since Jan 2021, a 75% KMLM and 25% NVDA combo went up 9% when the S&amp;P was up 10% and up 2.6% when the market was down 10%.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>CTA: 5 Reasons I Added This 7.6% Yielding ETF To My Portfolio</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f04095f0a7838c320c83cfa5691a2483\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\"/></p><p>Since April 2022 (Portfolio Visualizer)</p><p>This is the key to emotional and financial risk management. I&#39;m not trying to time whether NVDA will soar or crash. No one can predict that.</p><h4 id=\"id_2011515392\">Trust Asset Allocation, Not Market Timing, To Control Volatility</h4><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51dc5f93b968e43a6a4ae830454d15e9\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"743\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>NVDA has risks, including regulatory/antitrust risks, R&amp;D efficiency risks, and over 1,000 other risks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85e9f47a0f07ff31c481fabf5b91da78\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"648\"/></p><p>S&amp;P</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P LT Risk Management Score</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Rating</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0% to 9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Very Poor</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10% to 19%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Poor</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20% to 29%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Suboptimal</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30% to 59%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Acceptable</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>60% to 69%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Good</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>70% to 79%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Very Good</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>80+%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Exceptional</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>NVDA</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>64.80%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Global Percentile</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>88.37%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: S&amp;P)</em></p><h2 id=\"id_1302024128\">Bottom Line: Nvidia Is A Reasonable Buy Going Into Earnings And One Of The Top Return Potentials For The Rest Of The Year</h2><p>Let me be clear. I never make forecasts. I look at consensus fundamentals on quality companies and then calculate historically justified fundamental total return potentials.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s year-end fair value is $147, and if it beats and raises as expected in this year&#39;s final two earnings, that would likely rise to $175 to $195.</p><p>NVDA has been tracking its fair value for about 18 months, ever since the AI explosion sent its fundamentals soaring at record rates.</p><p>Does that mean NVDA will be $200 by year-end? As we&#39;ve seen many times this year, market sentiment is fickle.</p><p>NVDA has soared as much as 50% in one month, crashed 25% weekly, and soared 45% in the last few days.</p><p>But it keeps returning to historical fair value, 40.14X earnings, each time, as it has for the last decade.</p><p>It&#39;s critical to size your financial and emotional risk with NVDA properly. This stock is the quintessential high-volatility hyper-growth blue chip.</p><p>The downside volatility for the unprepared investor can be soul crushing. The volatility to the upside, created by the extreme crashes, is mind blowing.</p><p>But leave the speculation to the traders. Don&#39;t attempt to time NVDA. If you like the company, including its visionary CEO, who says he wants to keep innovating, buy at a reasonable price ($132.83 fair value or lower) and hold on.</p><p>Once my annual asset allocation is set, I manage my NVDA risk by rebalancing NVDA on a fixed schedule, using trailing stops.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>What You Need To Know About Protecting Your Portfolio From Recession And Bear Markets</p></li><li><p>The report includes a section on trailing stops, which I use when selling stocks during annual rebalancing.</p></li></ul><p>I&#39;m targeting an 11% max overweight on NVDA this year because this is the lowest-risk year for NVDA.</p><p>That&#39;s because TSM&#39;s ramp is running through 2025 (possibly into 2026), and TSM management has confirmed that NVDA will likely be capacity-constrained by the end of 2025.</p><p>That means NVDA&#39;s potential for up to $265 billion in revenue capacity (if there is a demand) could support the $225 to $235 billion that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect.</p><p>Given that the market is 12-month forward-looking, the risk of an air gap in demand (sudden decrease in orders and collapse of margins) is very low for all of 2024.</p><p>Investors will start looking to 2026 in 2025, which means more significant risks of a sustained 40% to 60% bear market should an air gap develop.</p><p>I&#39;ll adjust the target allocation to 7.5% to 9.1% next year, depending on the economy&#39;s performance, based on my portfolio&#39;s algo-driven risk management rules, which are optimized for my family&#39;s needs at any time.</p><p>I&#39;m not telling you what allocation to use for NVDA (if any). I&#39;m using myself as an example.</p><p>I share my limit buys, reasoning, and the best available data from all 62 analysts.</p><p>But the bottom line? With high confidence, I&#39;m riding into NVDA earnings with a record number of shares. Jensen fans will be impressed with the following:</p><p><strong>My NVDA Earnings Expectations</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>$30 to $50 billion buyback</p></li><li><p>Possibly a doubling of the dividend.</p></li><li><p>12.5% to 20% beat and raise.</p></li><li><p>5% to 15% pop (options market pricing in 8.7% one-day swing).</p></li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-26 11:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2461374296","content_text":"NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to 20%, unveil a $30 to $50 billion buyback, and potentially raise the dividend again.Market options are pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing after earnings, and 5% to 15% is likely, given channel checks and 2024 fundamentals.Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect over $225 billion in sales in 2025, and NVDA has the potential to beat FCF estimates by 50% next year.NVDA's current estimates justify a 16% rally by year-end, 39% by the end of 2025, and potentially as much as 140% by the end of next year.The current consensus total return potential is 23% to 28% annually through 2029, about 300% total return potential, roughly 4X more than the S&P.DeagreezFor Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) investors, it's been a volatile few weeks.YchartsYchartsFrom its record high of $140, NVDA fell to an intraday low of $90 on Aug. 5, during the Yen Carry Trade unwind.That's a 35% peak decline in a matter of weeks.And then, from those lows, that panic-selling bottom NVDA soared 45% to $130 before pulling back a bit on Tuesday.I Was \"Greedy When Others Were Fearful\" During The Recent Market PullbackMorningstarI use limit orders to keep the target allocation for each stock steady during corrections. Thanks to NVDA's normal volatility, which fell 2.35X as much as the S&P in this pullback (and 3.5X peak intraday decline), I could buy 650 shares of NVDA going into earnings.I didn't nail the bottom, just over $90 on Aug. 5, but I got close.Was I worried as these limits filled? Not at all because I was tracking NVDA's fundamentals each day and could see that, despite the market panic triggered by hedge fund margin calls and algo trades, NVDA's future was brighter than ever.So let me share the three reasons I bought so much NVDA in recent weeks, going into earnings. More importantly, these three reasons explain why it's still a potentially good idea for long-term dividend growth investors to buy NVDA even after its strong 40% recovery from its recent lows.Reason 1: Big Beat And Raise Likely During Aug. 28 EarningsSeeking AlphaNVDA reports on Wed, Aug. 28, after the close.As usual, earnings estimates have steadily risen by the week, with 37 upward revisions this quarter.Seeking AlphaSeeking AlphaNVDA's track record for beating earnings is perfect over the last two quarters since the company is supply constrained.According to Bloomberg, the average sales beat and raise over the last six quarters is 12.5%.Taiwan Semi (TSM) says it's increasing wafer production by 150% in 2024 and 100% in 2025, but thinks that NVDA will remain supply constrained through the end of 2025.Regarding its No. 1 supplier, TSM announced 45% sales growth courtesy of insatiable AI chip demand.Goldman Sachs: Analysts at Goldman Sachs are confident that Nvidia will surpass Street consensus for revenue and earnings per share, driven by robust Data Center revenues and operational leverage. They maintain a \"buy\" recommendation, highlighting Nvidia's competitive edge in AI and accelerated computing.Jefferies: Analysts at Jefferies expect Nvidia to continue delivering earnings beats, although the magnitude of these surprises may be smaller than in previous quarters. They anticipate a strong earnings report for July, with guidance into October expected to exceed expectations by about $1 billion.Wedbush Securities: Wedbush maintains confidence in Nvidia's ability to report a strong quarter, citing robust AI spending as a critical driver. They expect Nvidia's earnings to be bolstered by increased investment from significant customers in AI infrastructure.Morningstar and Morgan Stanley estimate 15% to 17% sales beats and raises, and KeyBank is similarly bullish, especially for 2025.All of the hyperscalers, the tech giants driving 50% of sales for NVDA right now, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN), have announced they are increasing AI capex this year and next year.That likely means that NVDA could sell 100% of production at full prices and record margins.2025 Outlook Is SoaringIn terms of figures, Team Green is expected to ship 60,000 to 70,000 units of Nvidia's GB200 AI servers, and given that one server is reported to cost around $2 million to $3 million per unit, this means that Team Green will bag in around a whopping $210 billion from just Blackwell servers along, that too in a year.\" - Morgan StanleyKeyBank has similar estimates of \"at least $210 billion\" in Blackwell sales alone in 2025.Now that NVDA has announced a delay in Blackwell shipments (which were supposed to start shipping in Q4), 2024 Blackwell shipments may be pushed into 2025.3 Reasons I Bought Nvidia Before EarningsAs I explained in my last pre-earnings update, NVDA's potential sales in 2025, per TSMC's supply ramp, is up to $265 billion.KeyBank and Morgan Stanley now estimate $210-plus billion in Blackwell sales alone. Remember that Hopper isn't going away; it will be a lower-cost option.$265 billion is the maximum theoretical revenue that NVDA could achieve if TSM's ramp is successful and they can sell 100% of capacity at full price.Before the Blackwell delay announcement, Morgan and KeyBank estimated $210 billion in Blackwell sales, not including other chips, auxiliary hardware, or NIMS (software).Management is guiding for 110% annual software sales through 2030.To $60 billion in annual sales by 2030.FactSetThe current consensus is $164 billion in 2025 sales, up from $160 billion a few weeks ago and $150 billion at the start of the year.NVDA can theoretically sell up to $265 billion next year, and Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect around $230 billion.What does that mean for potential free cash flow, beating expectations?FactSetAssuming stable 49% free cash flow margins (analysts expect this), potentially representing $65 to $70 billion in sales beat and $114 billion in free cash flow next year.The current consensus is $78 billion, representing a 46% free cash flow beat next year. $114 billion in FCF would be 13% higher than the $101 billion in 2026 FCF analysts currently expect.Nvidia Fair Value ProfileAug. 21: $132.83 (4.4% upside)Year-end 2024 (current consensus): $148.12 (16% upside)Year-end 2025 (current consensus): (39% upside)Mid 2025 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario): $250 to $275 (106% upside)Year-end 2026: $307.24 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario:) 141% upsideThe current analyst base case is that NVDA will have almost 40% upside by the end of next year. If NVDA achieves the maximum growth numbers that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect, there is as much as 141% upside return potential, which is justified by fundamentals.Goldman Sachs thinks AI will start to affect GDP growth in 2027 and corporate profits potentially in 2026.In other words, 2024 and 2025 are about supply constraints, with hyper-scalers seemingly willing to buy 100% of NVDA capacity (as well as some AMD and INTC AI chips).In 2026 and 2027, the years of Rubin and Rubin Ultra chip platforms, NVDA expects hyperscalers to be a minor part of its business as other companies and governments (sovereign AI) continue buying the best chips (for cost efficiency).Reason 2: Long-Term Outlook Keeps Getting StrongerFactSetThe median growth consensus for NVDA is 44.1%, up from 40% a few weeks ago and 33% three months ago.Long-term EPS growth estimates range from 10% to 54%, with 44.1% being the median.Here's what that looks like in the medium term.Nvidia Medium-Term Growth Consensus ForecastYearSalesFree Cash FlowEBITDAEBIT (Operating Income)Net Income2023$58,039$25,051$33,240$34,748$27,6032024$115,536$57,624$74,897$75,564$61,0252025$163,532$78,290$106,824$107,248$85,1322026$194,395$94,500$131,407$126,724$105,0582027$227,147$114,526NA$147,514$121,3722028$263,891NANA$159,219$140,2942029$271,796NANA$175,244$146,898Annualized Growth 2024-202929.3%46.2%58.1%31.0%32.1%Cumulative 2024-2029$1,236,297$344,940$313,128$791,513$659,779Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)Free cash flow is growing at almost 50% per year.And remember, this is the current consensus. If NVDA achieves $114 billion in FCF next year, as Morgan Stanley thinks is possible, then NVDA will have achieved 2027 results in 2025.NVDA is currently pricing in -2 or -3 years of potential growth if it achieves what Morgan Stanley and KeyBank do next year.Nvidia Margin Consensus ForecastYearFCF MarginEBITDA MarginEBIT (Operating) MarginNet Margin202343.2%57.3%59.9%47.6%202449.9%64.8%65.4%52.8%202547.9%65.3%65.6%52.1%202648.6%67.6%65.2%54.0%202750.4%NA64.9%53.4%2028NANA60.3%53.2%2029NANA64.5%54.0%Annualized Growth4.0%5.7%1.2%2.2%Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)\"Nvidia's margins can't possibly be maintained for long.\"Not according to the median consensus of 62 analysts who cover it for a living and have access to channel checks and data that YouTube prognosticators can't even dream of.Why is that plausible? Because Nvidia's value proposition to customers is long-term overall operating costs.Microsoft is one of the largest GPUs, AI, and cloud computing infrastructure buyers.Do you think MSFT minds paying $35K to $40K for the world's most advanced AI chips if it means that long-term operating costs per token are 50% to 75% lower than what cheaper but less advanced chips can achieve?The world's wealthiest companies can easily afford to take the long-term view, and Nvidia is guiding for at least 50% reductions in cost/token computing costs each year after 2025.In other words, NVDA is already the low-cost leader in long-term AI operating costs. For example, Blackwell is 4X better at training and 30X at inference (operating AI models) than Hopper.Hopper replaced the Ampere generation of AI chips and was 9X better at training and 30X better at inference than Ampere.In other words, between the A100 chips and B200 chips, NVDA has improved training capacity by 36X and inference by 900X.And here's why that matters. Most companies don't need to do 900X faster inferencing. At some point, speed isn't as important as energy and cost.In the next decade, Jensen Huang says Nvidia can help accelerate computing power in AI by one million-fold.For a company like MSFT or OpenAI, it might be optimal to try to have the best LMM, such as Project Stargate (a 10 million GPU model in 2028 costing over $100 billion), 1 million times faster for the same cost and energy.Today's AI inference speed might be fine for others but at 1 million times lower cost (per token).For some countries, the goal might be to achieve 1 million times lower energy (and cost) with the same speed as today.Or, for most companies, 1000X faster AI computing for 1000X lower cost (and 1000X lower energy usage) might be the ideal sweet spot.YchartsNVDA spends $10 billion annually on R&D, and that is expected to continue growing.FactSetNVDA's R&D spending is expected to triple to $30 billion in 2029. The company's historical median 20% to 25% free cash flow return on invested capital means its growth spending is highly efficient.In the last year, the free cash flow return on invested capital reached 87%. That isn't sustainable, but for now, the more Nvidia spends, the faster it grows.The more you buy the more you save.\" - Jensen Huang's sales pitch at keynotesGlassdoorSince 2022, NVDA has been rated among the top five companies to work for, and its workers consider Jensen Huang the fourth-best CEO.Blind76% of NVDA employees are millionaires.If you're a world-class AI computer engineer, do you want to work for Intel? Or a thriving industry leader whose CEO is hailed as a genius?Happy, productive employees who are getting richer than they ever dreamed of are another reason to ride strong with Jensen Huang.Jensen Huang Owns 3.5% Of NVDA And Is The 12th Richest Person On Earth.BloombergJensen Huang has been CEO for 30 years (he co-founded the company). He says he plans to remain CEO for 30 to 40 more years.If he can keep his finger on the pulse of future tech as well as he has for the last 30 years, Huang would be a potential Buffett of tech.Nvidia Is A Dividend Growth Dream StockMetricNvidiaS&PNasdaqTotal Income$4,097.79$925.85$447.31Inflation-Adjusted Income$2,145.44$484.74$234.19Starting Yield0.00%1.18%0%Yield On Cost89.2%8.2%5.96%Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost46.68%4.28%3.12%Annual Income Growth22.5%8.5%30.6%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)NVDA didn't start paying a dividend until 2012. And the dividend was low and frozen for years. Yet, NVDA has delivered 4X as much inflation-adjusted income as the S&P and almost 10X more than the Nasdaq.Income investors who have owned NVDA since the beginning now see an inflation-adjusted 47% yield on cost. Analysts say every $1000 invested at the IPO now pays $470 yearly in dividends, likely to grow 40% to 50% annually.Reason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable PriceNo one denies that Nvidia is an amazingly innovative or fast-growing company.The major concern many investors have is whether it's overvalued.FactSetNVDA is trading at 38.87X forward earnings.Its free cash flow yield (EV/FCF) is 40.3X next year's estimates, representing a forward cash-adjusted PEG ratio of 0.91. Its current PEG ratio, which is measured the traditional way, is 0.95.So Peter Lynch would say that as long as NVDA keeps growing as expected, it will grow at a reasonable price.Nvidia Objective Market Determined Fair Value ProfileTime Frame (Years)Average PEAverage P/FCFAnnual EPS GrowthAnnual FCF GrowthEPS PEGFCF PEG2035.7134.9434.2532.781.041.071934.8234.9434.3436.191.010.971834.533.2328.4426.081.211.271735.0233.9526.1426.931.341.261635.9934.4425.5522.061.411.561537.2736.0342.9139.790.870.911437.6536.0345.9833.660.821.071335.9137.3140.0533.820.901.101235.8338.4939.6834.380.901.121137.8441.1444.5740.550.851.011040.1444.1852.9646.150.760.96942.547.6953.1346.540.801.02845.4852.3162.2447.70.731.10748.5456.2753.6252.080.911.08649.7558.0549.745.331.001.28548.8559.2150.8953.850.961.10451.5367.5472.9858.240.711.16353.2782.8173.1379.720.731.04253.7187.2570.9183.850.761.04152.9892.71288.38614.240.180.15Average42.364550.42659.492572.6970.891.06Median38.9942.6647.8442.940.881.082030 FCF Consensus$154,421.06Current Market Cap$2,420,000.002029 Fair ValueAnnualized Return PotentialFree Cash Flow Fair Value (Median)$6,587,602.59Increase In Value (Median)172.21%$350.0922.25%Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Average)$7,786,836.57Increase In Value (Average)221.77%$412.8626.35%Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)A PEG of 1 is what NVDA has historically traded at for the last 20 years. That's not opinion. It's objective market fact. So, if NVDA trades at a PEG of 1, it's objectively not overvalued.The first 2030 sales estimates are $307 billion, or 17.8% annualized from 2024 to 2030.That means a historical fair value of $6.6 trillion to $7.8 trillion or 172% to 222% consensus fundamentally justified fair value by the end of 2029.That would translate into 22% to 27% annualized returns for the next 5.5 years.Remember, these are the current consensus estimates, which rise with each quarterly beat and raise.Risks To Consider: Why Nvidia Isn't Right For EveryoneOptions markets are currently pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing post earnings.ReutersBut that doesn't mean NVDA will go up or down 9%. I expect a 5% to 15% pop, but up to a 25% upward move might occur if NVDA pulls off a big enough beat and raise.NVDA's epic gains have been justified by record fundamental growth.And the bear markets this year, which have been 25% and 35%, respectively, have not been justified by fundamentals.It's easy to be \"greedy when others are fearful\" when all the fundamentals are strong. But what happens when NVDA's earnings decline?YearsEPS GrowthPeak Decline2009-82%-78.9%2013 to 2014-22%-22.1%2020-13%-30.0%2023-25%-62.8%Average-36%-48.4%Median-24%-46.4%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer, FAST Graphs, FactSet)In the last 15 years, NVDA's median EPS decline has resulted in a 24% earnings recession.The market's median reaction is a nearly 50% sell-off.If smaller language models prove as effective as LMMs or specialized chips better than GPUs, it could disrupt NVDA's current AI lead.New types of chips are indeed being developed to outperform traditional GPUs specifically for AI tasks. These include specialized AI chips, such as Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), designed to handle AI workloads more efficiently than general-purpose GPUs.ASICs: These are custom-designed chips optimized for specific applications, including AI. They offer higher efficiency and performance for particular tasks compared to general-purpose GPUs. For example, Google's TPU is an ASIC designed to accelerate machine learning workloads.TPUs: Developed by Google, TPUs are specifically designed to accelerate machine learning tasks. They are optimized for TensorFlow, Google's machine learning framework, and provide significant performance improvements for AI applications.FPGAs: Field-Programmable Gate Arrays are another type of AI chip that can be configured for specific tasks. They offer flexibility and can be optimized for various AI workloads, although they may not always match the raw performance of ASICs or TPUs.These specialized AI chips are designed to handle the massive parallel processing required for AI tasks more efficiently than GPUs. They achieve this by optimizing for lower precision arithmetic, which reduces the number of transistors needed and, thus, the energy consumption while maintaining the necessary performance for AI algorithms. This makes them particularly suitable for applications like large language models, edge AI, and autonomous vehicles, where efficiency and speed are critical.NVDA must maintain its lead in AI tech. If it loses the ability to offer the lowest long-term cost option, then the bullish thesis will be thrown out the window.Portfolio VisualizerHere are the largest ten bear markets for NVDA.And here's how volatile this hyper-volatility, hyper-growth blue chip is.10% Worst Monthly ReturnsNvidiaNasdaqS&P 500YearMonthReturnReturnReturn20026-48.66%-13.12%-7.38%20087-38.89%0.64%-0.90%20027-35.56%-8.62%-7.88%20019-35.14%-20.88%-8.16%200011-34.83%-22.91%-7.47%200212-32.81%-12.09%-5.66%20224-32.03%-13.60%-8.78%19999-31.56%0.84%-2.24%20081-27.72%-11.89%-6.05%20195-25.07%-8.23%-6.38%201810-24.98%-8.60%-6.91%20047-24.67%-7.55%-3.22%20086-24.21%-9.61%-8.35%200010-24.10%-7.94%-0.47%20022-22.41%-12.28%-1.79%201811-22.40%-0.26%1.85%20106-22.30%-5.98%-5.17%20044-22.27%-2.99%-1.89%20024-21.53%-12.01%-5.82%20065-21.36%-7.24%-3.01%20001-21.04%-1.85%-4.94%20116-20.46%-2.02%-1.69%200910-20.43%-3.05%-1.92%20229-19.55%-10.54%-9.24%20048-19.20%-2.49%0.24%200012-19.10%-7.32%-0.52%20226-18.80%-8.91%-8.25%20113-18.53%-0.45%0.01%201812-18.31%-8.65%-8.79%200810-18.21%-15.47%-16.52%20053-18.04%-1.75%-1.83%Average-25.30%-7.96%-4.81%Median-22.40%-8.23%-5.17%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)In the last 25 years, NVDA has had 24 20%-plus monthly declines. It's fallen by almost 50% in a single month.It's fallen as much as 40% in a month while the S&P and Nasdaq were flat!If you can't tolerate such volatility and harness it to buy more when sentiment is at its worst, you will miss out on gains like these.10% Best Monthly ReturnsNvidiaNasdaqS&P 500YearMonthReturnReturnReturn2003582.62%8.52%5.48%2000272.68%19.02%-1.57%2001157.56%10.15%4.45%19991156.50%11.79%1.74%20011056.02%16.98%1.30%2011155.32%2.83%2.33%2001345.28%-17.49%-5.60%20021143.95%12.91%6.17%20091243.03%5.20%1.91%1999839.75%5.47%-0.52%20021039.02%18.48%8.23%2017538.54%3.90%1.41%2023536.34%7.88%0.46%19991235.56%24.32%5.63%2023133.69%10.64%6.29%2000832.29%13.63%6.60%20041132.20%6.02%4.45%2000332.01%2.58%9.69%2016531.83%4.37%1.70%2006831.48%4.77%2.18%20161129.76%0.44%3.68%2024228.58%5.28%5.22%2001428.31%17.88%7.04%2000528.05%-12.27%-1.57%20211127.81%2.00%-0.80%20011127.48%16.96%7.80%2018127.03%8.76%5.64%2024526.89%6.15%5.06%2005226.48%-0.48%2.09%2020826.00%10.94%6.98%20221125.41%5.54%5.56%Average38.63%7.52%3.52%Median32.29%6.15%4.45%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)NVDA's 10% best months are a median 32% gain, with returns as strong as 82% in a single month.Can you see the benefits of rebalancing in real time during bear markets using managed futures and limit orders?The 40% monthly crashes are what create the 82% monthly rallies. If your optimal NVDA allocation is 5% and falls to 40%, you can buy with limits and keep it at 5% the entire time. And so when that face-ripping rally comes around, when NVDA overshoots to the bottom, you end up with maximum benefit.Then, at annual rebalancing time, you can harvest those excess returns, including bubble excess valuations, to buy high-yield blue chips to compound income even faster.DKThis is why I am so bullish on NVDA. Not just for the growth, I don't care about growth. I care about total returns because income tracks total returns due to annual rebalancing.By harvesting the yield generated by NVDA's extreme volatility, long-term NVDA investors can maximize long-term inflation-adjusted income.Portfolio VisualizerNVDA's 5% worst months are 30% monthly declines, 3X worse than the S&P's 10% worst 5% of months, and 2X worse than the Nasdaq's 15% worst monthly returns.NVDA has historically captured 329% of the S&P's upside in exchange for 183% of its downside when stocks fall.It delivered safe 26% withdrawal rates, though no investor would ever be 100% NVDA as a retirement plan.Managed Futures = KMLM (since Jan 2021) (Portfolio Visualizer)By combining NVDA with managed futures, you can adjust its volatility to what you can emotionally and financially stand.KMLM: 5 Reasons You Might Want To Buy This 8.2% Yielding ETFFor example, a 50% NVDA and 50% KMLM stock bucket captured 189% of the S&P's upside with 22% of its downside.25% NVDA and 75% KMLM captured the market, 91% of the S&P upside, with a 26% downside.That means since Jan 2021, a 75% KMLM and 25% NVDA combo went up 9% when the S&P was up 10% and up 2.6% when the market was down 10%.CTA: 5 Reasons I Added This 7.6% Yielding ETF To My PortfolioSince April 2022 (Portfolio Visualizer)This is the key to emotional and financial risk management. I'm not trying to time whether NVDA will soar or crash. No one can predict that.Trust Asset Allocation, Not Market Timing, To Control VolatilityPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNVDA has risks, including regulatory/antitrust risks, R&D efficiency risks, and over 1,000 other risks.S&PS&P LT Risk Management ScoreRating0% to 9%Very Poor10% to 19%Poor20% to 29%Suboptimal30% to 59%Acceptable60% to 69%Good70% to 79%Very Good80+%ExceptionalNVDA64.80%Global Percentile88.37%Click to enlarge(Source: S&P)Bottom Line: Nvidia Is A Reasonable Buy Going Into Earnings And One Of The Top Return Potentials For The Rest Of The YearLet me be clear. I never make forecasts. I look at consensus fundamentals on quality companies and then calculate historically justified fundamental total return potentials.NVDA's year-end fair value is $147, and if it beats and raises as expected in this year's final two earnings, that would likely rise to $175 to $195.NVDA has been tracking its fair value for about 18 months, ever since the AI explosion sent its fundamentals soaring at record rates.Does that mean NVDA will be $200 by year-end? As we've seen many times this year, market sentiment is fickle.NVDA has soared as much as 50% in one month, crashed 25% weekly, and soared 45% in the last few days.But it keeps returning to historical fair value, 40.14X earnings, each time, as it has for the last decade.It's critical to size your financial and emotional risk with NVDA properly. This stock is the quintessential high-volatility hyper-growth blue chip.The downside volatility for the unprepared investor can be soul crushing. The volatility to the upside, created by the extreme crashes, is mind blowing.But leave the speculation to the traders. Don't attempt to time NVDA. If you like the company, including its visionary CEO, who says he wants to keep innovating, buy at a reasonable price ($132.83 fair value or lower) and hold on.Once my annual asset allocation is set, I manage my NVDA risk by rebalancing NVDA on a fixed schedule, using trailing stops.What You Need To Know About Protecting Your Portfolio From Recession And Bear MarketsThe report includes a section on trailing stops, which I use when selling stocks during annual rebalancing.I'm targeting an 11% max overweight on NVDA this year because this is the lowest-risk year for NVDA.That's because TSM's ramp is running through 2025 (possibly into 2026), and TSM management has confirmed that NVDA will likely be capacity-constrained by the end of 2025.That means NVDA's potential for up to $265 billion in revenue capacity (if there is a demand) could support the $225 to $235 billion that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect.Given that the market is 12-month forward-looking, the risk of an air gap in demand (sudden decrease in orders and collapse of margins) is very low for all of 2024.Investors will start looking to 2026 in 2025, which means more significant risks of a sustained 40% to 60% bear market should an air gap develop.I'll adjust the target allocation to 7.5% to 9.1% next year, depending on the economy's performance, based on my portfolio's algo-driven risk management rules, which are optimized for my family's needs at any time.I'm not telling you what allocation to use for NVDA (if any). I'm using myself as an example.I share my limit buys, reasoning, and the best available data from all 62 analysts.But the bottom line? With high confidence, I'm riding into NVDA earnings with a record number of shares. Jensen fans will be impressed with the following:My NVDA Earnings Expectations$30 to $50 billion buybackPossibly a doubling of the dividend.12.5% to 20% beat and raise.5% to 15% pop (options market pricing in 8.7% one-day swing).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340096490619112,"gmtCreate":1724062412762,"gmtModify":1724062417400,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a> I am not going to do anything today 🙋🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🙎🏻‍♂️","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a> I am not going to do anything today 🙋🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🙎🏻‍♂️","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I am not going to do anything today 🙋🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🙎🏻‍♂️","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5050a397c95db4e9c9768756bedf8eb9","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340096490619112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":331654022742160,"gmtCreate":1721978048136,"gmtModify":1721978051444,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy low Sell high. Right time Right place. Study the company background and direction, do not listen to those self proclaimed Top/ Talk analysts... Ultimately you need to have holding powers 😉<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"Buy low Sell high. Right time Right place. Study the company background and direction, do not listen to those self proclaimed Top/ Talk analysts... Ultimately you need to have holding powers 😉<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"Buy low Sell high. Right time Right place. Study the company background and direction, do not listen to those self proclaimed Top/ Talk analysts... Ultimately you need to have holding powers 😉$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da03100e16e440f921cfb9cc8e4b50b9","width":"942","height":"1716"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331654022742160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4117888419809232","authorIdStr":"4117888419809232"},"content":"🗣️ PLEASE DON'T EMPTY TALKING 🦜 YOU ARE JUST ONE OF THOSE SELF PROCLAIMED ANALYSTS! SHOW ME YOUR PROFITS 😏 IF YOU HAVE ANY 😆","text":"🗣️ PLEASE DON'T EMPTY TALKING 🦜 YOU ARE JUST ONE OF THOSE SELF PROCLAIMED ANALYSTS! SHOW ME YOUR PROFITS 😏 IF YOU HAVE ANY 😆","html":"🗣️ PLEASE DON'T EMPTY TALKING 🦜 YOU ARE JUST ONE OF THOSE SELF PROCLAIMED ANALYSTS! SHOW ME YOUR PROFITS 😏 IF YOU HAVE ANY 😆"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":352344288800824,"gmtCreate":1727060221708,"gmtModify":1727077922725,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> If you're still thinking not to buy and dreaming it would drop. It's OK. 😏 We will be&nbsp;laughing to the bank without you😉&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> If you're still thinking not to buy and dreaming it would drop. It's OK. 😏 We will be&nbsp;laughing to the bank without you😉&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ If you're still thinking not to buy and dreaming it would drop. It's OK. 😏 We will be laughing to the bank without you😉 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26946ddfd953e755195bde2756bfa4e0","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":103,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":40,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352344288800824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"content":"Reaching $40 tonight 😁","text":"Reaching $40 tonight 😁","html":"Reaching $40 tonight 😁"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358647293411400,"gmtCreate":1728600654486,"gmtModify":1728613296630,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Why I like to hold hands with PLTR, and to remain a long term relationship??? It's simple and logical as below: 1) PLTR spending few quarters to be proven and qualified&nbsp;to be included in S&amp;P500, 2) AI is the trend and I believe&nbsp;the PLTR boot camps are continuously bringing in good business, 3) Please don't forget the military contracts, 4) Some companies might be eyeing to collaborate with PLTR for AI related expansion, 5) I believe it will show us another&nbsp;flying colors&nbsp;quarterly results! 6) Low entry price for most retail investors&nbsp; Join me to be a PLTR shareholder!&nbsp; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;&lt;/</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Why I like to hold hands with PLTR, and to remain a long term relationship??? It's simple and logical as below: 1) PLTR spending few quarters to be proven and qualified&nbsp;to be included in S&amp;P500, 2) AI is the trend and I believe&nbsp;the PLTR boot camps are continuously bringing in good business, 3) Please don't forget the military contracts, 4) Some companies might be eyeing to collaborate with PLTR for AI related expansion, 5) I believe it will show us another&nbsp;flying colors&nbsp;quarterly results! 6) Low entry price for most retail investors&nbsp; Join me to be a PLTR shareholder!&nbsp; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;&lt;/</a>","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Why I like to hold hands with PLTR, and to remain a long term relationship??? It's simple and logical as below: 1) PLTR spending few quarters to be proven and qualified to be included in S&P500, 2) AI is the trend and I believe the PLTR boot camps are continuously bringing in good business, 3) Please don't forget the military contracts, 4) Some companies might be eyeing to collaborate with PLTR for AI related expansion, 5) I believe it will show us another flying colors quarterly results! 6) Low entry price for most retail investors Join me to be a PLTR shareholder! $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/93221792baa1d46e775b3b0084351411","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":70,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":48,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358647293411400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382317784011160,"gmtCreate":1734321581955,"gmtModify":1734343201535,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a> Nothing can stop it from flying to the moon 🚀 🌝&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a> Nothing can stop it from flying to the moon 🚀 🌝&nbsp;","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Nothing can stop it from flying to the moon 🚀 🌝","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6e9787e7b23bc81d4d4542c0f39ac7f","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":197,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382317784011160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CashBoostAccount","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010968","idStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Great job on your latest stock market success! Your commitment to research and analysis is evident in your results. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.💹💰🤩🎉 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","text":"Great job on your latest stock market success! Your commitment to research and analysis is evident in your results. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.💹💰🤩🎉 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","html":"Great job on your latest stock market success! Your commitment to research and analysis is evident in your results. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.💹💰🤩🎉 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382367140258192,"gmtCreate":1734395492619,"gmtModify":1734405769538,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> If you're with me again, this is what happens in&nbsp;your wallet!&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Love]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> If you're with me again, this is what happens in&nbsp;your wallet!&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;&nbsp;[Love]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ If you're with me again, this is what happens in your wallet! [Miser] [Call] [USD] [Love]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a56c6323e507cc0b39215e73da9dbdfe","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":67,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":8,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382367140258192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"content":"My estimated SOUN price is $50 before April 2025, please share your comments.$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ This is the fish jumping into the dragon gate![Miser][Happy][USD][Call][OK]","text":"My estimated SOUN price is $50 before April 2025, please share your comments.$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ This is the fish jumping into the dragon gate![Miser][Happy][USD][Call][OK]","html":"My estimated SOUN price is $50 before April 2025, please share your comments.$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ This is the fish jumping into the dragon gate![Miser][Happy][USD][Call][OK]"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378354216935712,"gmtCreate":1733414414338,"gmtModify":1733455674030,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 🔥I need to Stay Calm &amp; be a Humble man 😉 Can another tell me what is happening❓❓<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a> To the Moon 🌝","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 🔥I need to Stay Calm &amp; be a Humble man 😉 Can another tell me what is happening❓❓<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$&nbsp;</a> To the Moon 🌝","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ 🔥I need to Stay Calm & be a Humble man 😉 Can another tell me what is happening❓❓$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ To the Moon 🌝","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b0c5088f82becee692b6a6a38aa7ece","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":17,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378354216935712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CashBoostAccount","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010968","idStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Congratulations on your recent gains! Your dedication to value investing is clearly paying off. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.🥳🥳 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","text":"Congratulations on your recent gains! Your dedication to value investing is clearly paying off. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.🥳🥳 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","html":"Congratulations on your recent gains! Your dedication to value investing is clearly paying off. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies.🥳🥳 Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347769456718056,"gmtCreate":1725928184424,"gmtModify":1725932726944,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;I have told all my friends to buy and hold, and I am very confident in PLTR to join S&amp;P500 🥳","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;I have told all my friends to buy and hold, and I am very confident in PLTR to join S&amp;P500 🥳","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I have told all my friends to buy and hold, and I am very confident in PLTR to join S&P500 🥳","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c1f69aaff02c3f67511a818329d2265","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":74,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347769456718056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365772858499192,"gmtCreate":1730300584367,"gmtModify":1730515803652,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am a greedy man 😉 <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\"> $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>","listText":"I am a greedy man 😉 <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\"> $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>","text":"I am a greedy man 😉 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d068a6881d679e129c513fc342d8ab9"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":14,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365772858499192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CashBoostAccount","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010968","idStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","text":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","html":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369874143014976,"gmtCreate":1731323821208,"gmtModify":1731388775937,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Lety picture do the talking!&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a> investment is a long journey 😉 follow me and you won't walking on a&nbsp;wrong path 🤡","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Lety picture do the talking!&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a> investment is a long journey 😉 follow me and you won't walking on a&nbsp;wrong path 🤡","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Lety picture do the talking! $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ investment is a long journey 😉 follow me and you won't walking on a wrong path 🤡","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d3548972689eaba97042a756f7e4fd4","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":31,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369874143014976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346704347791608,"gmtCreate":1725673945614,"gmtModify":1725864706919,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;Bullish Months ago I am waiting&nbsp;for PLTR joining S&amp;P500.... $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp; Hope&nbsp;You're with me&nbsp;🥳🥳🥳","listText":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;Bullish Months ago I am waiting&nbsp;for PLTR joining S&amp;P500.... $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp; Hope&nbsp;You're with me&nbsp;🥳🥳🥳","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Bullish Months ago I am waiting for PLTR joining S&P500.... $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Hope You're with me 🥳🥳🥳","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b0e8caeec9a2729b488f2087a27ec2cc","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346704347791608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4171900329979952","authorId":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4171900329979952","idStr":"4171900329979952"},"content":"It joined the 500 and congratulations 🙌! Cheers BC 🍀","text":"It joined the 500 and congratulations 🙌! Cheers BC 🍀","html":"It joined the 500 and congratulations 🙌! Cheers BC 🍀"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363958850072832,"gmtCreate":1729867477381,"gmtModify":1730187617873,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a> ⚠️ Brothers &amp; Sisters, please don't sell anything below $50 😉","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a> ⚠️ Brothers &amp; Sisters, please don't sell anything below $50 😉","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ⚠️ Brothers & Sisters, please don't sell anything below $50 😉","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac8c076f0fd66dacbea8d370cd31f273","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363958850072832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CashBoostAccount","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010968","idStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","text":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","html":"Your profits are a great reward for your hard work and strategic planning. Keep up the excellent investment decisions. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367839360618616,"gmtCreate":1730822283819,"gmtModify":1730875211299,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a> How many of my friends are still with me now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a> How many of my friends are still with me now?","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ How many of my friends are still with me now?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0375a0a828996e9165c97e3bf2a42d13","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367839360618616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4099057536688210","authorId":"4099057536688210","name":"momotaro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e721238dd74be31ccf3b8ae086e48839","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4099057536688210","idStr":"4099057536688210"},"content":"It really takes patience to stay until now. It has been a long journey but is rewarding. In fact, doing nothing may yield better profits in the case of Palantir. Continue to have faith and trust in this company's fundamentals.","text":"It really takes patience to stay until now. It has been a long journey but is rewarding. In fact, doing nothing may yield better profits in the case of Palantir. Continue to have faith and trust in this company's fundamentals.","html":"It really takes patience to stay until now. It has been a long journey but is rewarding. In fact, doing nothing may yield better profits in the case of Palantir. Continue to have faith and trust in this company's fundamentals."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":331654022742160,"gmtCreate":1721978048136,"gmtModify":1721978051444,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy low Sell high. Right time Right place. Study the company background and direction, do not listen to those self proclaimed Top/ Talk analysts... Ultimately you need to have holding powers 😉<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"Buy low Sell high. Right time Right place. Study the company background and direction, do not listen to those self proclaimed Top/ Talk analysts... Ultimately you need to have holding powers 😉<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"Buy low Sell high. Right time Right place. Study the company background and direction, do not listen to those self proclaimed Top/ Talk analysts... Ultimately you need to have holding powers 😉$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da03100e16e440f921cfb9cc8e4b50b9","width":"942","height":"1716"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331654022742160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"content":"🗣️ PLEASE DON'T EMPTY TALKING 🦜 YOU ARE JUST ONE OF THOSE SELF PROCLAIMED ANALYSTS! SHOW ME YOUR PROFITS 😏 IF YOU HAVE ANY 😆","text":"🗣️ PLEASE DON'T EMPTY TALKING 🦜 YOU ARE JUST ONE OF THOSE SELF PROCLAIMED ANALYSTS! SHOW ME YOUR PROFITS 😏 IF YOU HAVE ANY 😆","html":"🗣️ PLEASE DON'T EMPTY TALKING 🦜 YOU ARE JUST ONE OF THOSE SELF PROCLAIMED ANALYSTS! SHOW ME YOUR PROFITS 😏 IF YOU HAVE ANY 😆"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340096490619112,"gmtCreate":1724062412762,"gmtModify":1724062417400,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a> I am not going to do anything today 🙋🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🙎🏻‍♂️","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a> I am not going to do anything today 🙋🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🙎🏻‍♂️","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ I am not going to do anything today 🙋🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🙎🏻‍♂️","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5050a397c95db4e9c9768756bedf8eb9","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340096490619112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373918024716600,"gmtCreate":1732329079044,"gmtModify":1732329085048,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> I BELIEVE YOU CAN FLY!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOUN\">$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ </a> I BELIEVE YOU CAN FLY!&nbsp;","text":"$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ I BELIEVE YOU CAN FLY!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4573a42a5ad5b0a0a5c3d1293a4a28bf","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373918024716600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358171043881320,"gmtCreate":1728480886926,"gmtModify":1728480891908,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Do you believe if I&nbsp;tell you it will hit $50 before 1st November?&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> Do you believe if I&nbsp;tell you it will hit $50 before 1st November?&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Do you believe if I tell you it will hit $50 before 1st November? $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0278b4e1ff57469dd33d672a50bdc0db","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358171043881320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357523409559680,"gmtCreate":1728295540821,"gmtModify":1728295545357,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stay at home and do not trade.&nbsp; No gut No gain.&nbsp; What's the problem of this S&amp;P500 qualify PLTR?&nbsp;&nbsp; Tiger Brokers,&nbsp;How can I delete your comments and notifications???","listText":"Stay at home and do not trade.&nbsp; No gut No gain.&nbsp; What's the problem of this S&amp;P500 qualify PLTR?&nbsp;&nbsp; Tiger Brokers,&nbsp;How can I delete your comments and notifications???","text":"Stay at home and do not trade. No gut No gain. What's the problem of this S&P500 qualify PLTR? Tiger Brokers, How can I delete your comments and notifications???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357523409559680","repostId":"2473155384","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2473155384","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1728269177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2473155384?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-07 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Top Line Expands, Dilution Shrinks Shareholder Value","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2473155384","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir's significant revenue growth is overshadowed by high equity dilution, resulting in negative per-share revenue growth and diminished shareholder value over the past 3 years.Stock-based compens","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir&#39;s significant revenue growth is overshadowed by high equity dilution, resulting in negative per-share revenue growth and diminished shareholder value over the past 3 years.</p></li><li><p>Stock-based compensation, representing 66% of CFO, inflates cash flows but dilutes shareholder equity, questioning the quality of earnings.</p></li><li><p>Given the excessive equity dilution and unrealistic market assumptions, I recommend a sell rating and advise investors to stay on the sidelines.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ca0459f275b9aed733014624cae2dc80\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</p><h2 id=\"id_3642493715\">Recent developments</h2><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> over the last quarters has seen significant growth in the top and bottom line. As the founder mentioned:</p><blockquote><p><em>The U.S. government has begun awakening as well to the scope of the opportunity ahead. This past quarter, for the first time in our company&#39;s history, the trailing twelve-month revenue in our U.S. government business-including defense and intelligence agencies-surpassed $1 billion.</em></p></blockquote><p>Indeed, a milestone for a newly founded company.</p><p>During FY2023, net income and operating income turned positive for the first time since the company&#39;s inception. Net income increased by 156% YoY, and operating income by 158%, driven by a 16.74% revenue expansion.</p><p>Between Q2 and Q1 of 2024, US Commercial revenues increased by 55% climbing to $159M, and International Commercial revenues increased by 33%, reaching $309M. Government US and non-US revenues grew at 25% reaching a combined total of $649M.</p><p>Additionally, net income increased by 27% QoQ and operating income increased by 31% QoQ for the same period respectively, positioning the Q2 2024 GAAP operating margin at 16%. During Q2 FY2024 they reached a record rule of 40 of 64% (growth rate + % EBITDA margin) indicating that PLTR is one of the healthiest SaaS startups by wide margins. View Q2-2024 results here.</p><p>However, current market appraisal raises concerns for old and new investors as the market has valued the aforementioned net income growth at 200 times earnings, raising even higher the expected growth. As we will soon observe, past growth hasn&#39;t been adequate for such a valuation if we consider the tremendous equity dilution that shareholder&#39;s experienced over the past 2–3 years. Let&#39;s take a look.</p><h2 id=\"id_3533153028\">Quality of earnings</h2><p>Palantir&#39;s net income is lower than cash-flows from operations, which is an indication of high quality of earnings. But we need to further analyze CFO to find out what items were included and if any adjustments need to be made. After a brief vertical analysis on cash flows from operations, these are our findings:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/375932890b10a0d9afa028ce7674f1f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p>CFO extract (Palantir 2023 Annual Report)</p><p>Stock-based compensation represented 66% of CFO. When such expense goes through the income statement but is added back to compute CFO, the result is lower earnings and <strong>higher cash-flows</strong>, which in turn indicate high quality of earnings. However, If the expense is eliminated from the income statement, the inverse takes effect. Higher net income and lower CFO, which is a characteristic of poor earnings quality.</p><p>Consequently, if stock-based compensation gets eliminated, the cash flows will look poorer and earnings will be higher (and <strong>possibly inflated</strong>). It is a trade-off that needs to be carefully considered, but since it increases the cash-flow figure, it is likely that such large dilutive compensation will persist.</p><p>As we can see in the below extract, from FY2022 to FY2023 another 200M shares were added to the total, driving the value of current shareholders even lower. What happens if we carefully investigate the per-share figures?</p><p>In that case, shareholders haven&#39;t realized any intrinsic growth over the past 3 years. Of course, one might make the case that per-share figures don&#39;t matter since an increase/decrease in shares does not impact the top or bottom line. I have to remind you, however, that issuing shares and diluting equity is a real expense to the current shareholders as are asked to purchase more shares to offset the dilution effect.</p><h3 id=\"id_4173253093\">Impact of dilution on past growth</h3><p>Top-line expansion is not as good as it looks if we view the per-share figures:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c88a0636effd654c734b5e340a796a2\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p>Diluted Shares - Impact on I/S (Author&#39;s Estimates)</p><p>It is clear that Palantir averaged a negative <strong>-2.7%</strong> 3-year revenue per-share growth if we take into account the tremendous equity dilution. On a diluted per-share basis, shareholder&#39;s stakes shrank by 11%. On the bright side, YoY(2022-2023) retained earnings increased slightly by 3%.</p><p>Investors to date have put $5.6B in the enterprise to realize about $300M from operations annually. If we assume that investment was made yesterday to harvest $300M of earnings from operations today, then the return matches the annual yield of a 3 month T-Bill.</p><h3 id=\"id_886434877\">Market assumptions</h3><p><strong>EPS</strong></p><p>New investors are asked to pay 200 times earnings, given the recent acceleration in the top line.</p><p>What does a cost of $36 per share mean for Normalized GAAP Diluted EPS $0.11 (TTM) annual earnings? If we assume that 200x is a &#34;fair value&#34;, GAAP Diluted EPS should grow 200% consistently for the next 5 years.</p><p>Additionally, if we use 5% for the risk-free rate, which sets the fair P/E at 20, Normalized GAAP Diluted EPS should be $1.8 today to support a fair no-growth valuation.</p><p><strong>P/B</strong></p><p>Old Graham readers will recall his comments on paying a price above book value. It is generally not recommended unless the book value premium can be actually realized by the enterprise in the future. A 20x multiple indicates that there is a $76B premium that the company should earn in the future to justify a P/B of 20 bringing it down to a P/B of 1. Of course, no technology company is trading at P/B of 1 because they are perceived to have a wide competitive advantage over other companies. As a result, a P/B of 2 or 3 might be justified. But a P/B of 20 is unreasonable for a startup.</p><p><strong>Effects of Additional Paid-in Capital (APIC) on Book Value</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/812a0397d3c43cc43ee2892665692dc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"/></p><p>Last Report, 2023, 2022, 2021 (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>When an option is exercised, the company raises more cash, stockholders equity goes up by the same amount. This is the reason why we need to consider both figures retained earnings and APIC.</p><p>We can see that during the latest report and the past 3 years, book value grew at a substantial pace. The investor should not mistake growth in book value, with capital contributed. A large part of the growth in book value was driven by more cash that the company was able to raise by exercising stock options. We can see that APIC between 2023 and Q2 2024 was increased by $341M and retained earnings by $240M for a combined $580M increase. Thus, the stock exercise in the first two quarters, grew book value by nearly 59%.</p><h3 id=\"id_1741975895\">Investment Considerations</h3><p>All things considered, the enterprise at the current growth state is not of investment quality. Given the large equity dilution, I would recommend a sell for the security. Investors can remain on the sidelines until the long-term view changes.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Top Line Expands, Dilution Shrinks Shareholder Value</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Top Line Expands, Dilution Shrinks Shareholder Value\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-07 10:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4725211-palantir-top-line-expands-dilution-shrinks-shareholder-value><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir's significant revenue growth is overshadowed by high equity dilution, resulting in negative per-share revenue growth and diminished shareholder value over the past 3 years.Stock-based ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4725211-palantir-top-line-expands-dilution-shrinks-shareholder-value\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4725211-palantir-top-line-expands-dilution-shrinks-shareholder-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2473155384","content_text":"Palantir's significant revenue growth is overshadowed by high equity dilution, resulting in negative per-share revenue growth and diminished shareholder value over the past 3 years.Stock-based compensation, representing 66% of CFO, inflates cash flows but dilutes shareholder equity, questioning the quality of earnings.Given the excessive equity dilution and unrealistic market assumptions, I recommend a sell rating and advise investors to stay on the sidelines.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesRecent developmentsPalantir over the last quarters has seen significant growth in the top and bottom line. As the founder mentioned:The U.S. government has begun awakening as well to the scope of the opportunity ahead. This past quarter, for the first time in our company's history, the trailing twelve-month revenue in our U.S. government business-including defense and intelligence agencies-surpassed $1 billion.Indeed, a milestone for a newly founded company.During FY2023, net income and operating income turned positive for the first time since the company's inception. Net income increased by 156% YoY, and operating income by 158%, driven by a 16.74% revenue expansion.Between Q2 and Q1 of 2024, US Commercial revenues increased by 55% climbing to $159M, and International Commercial revenues increased by 33%, reaching $309M. Government US and non-US revenues grew at 25% reaching a combined total of $649M.Additionally, net income increased by 27% QoQ and operating income increased by 31% QoQ for the same period respectively, positioning the Q2 2024 GAAP operating margin at 16%. During Q2 FY2024 they reached a record rule of 40 of 64% (growth rate + % EBITDA margin) indicating that PLTR is one of the healthiest SaaS startups by wide margins. View Q2-2024 results here.However, current market appraisal raises concerns for old and new investors as the market has valued the aforementioned net income growth at 200 times earnings, raising even higher the expected growth. As we will soon observe, past growth hasn't been adequate for such a valuation if we consider the tremendous equity dilution that shareholder's experienced over the past 2–3 years. Let's take a look.Quality of earningsPalantir's net income is lower than cash-flows from operations, which is an indication of high quality of earnings. But we need to further analyze CFO to find out what items were included and if any adjustments need to be made. After a brief vertical analysis on cash flows from operations, these are our findings:CFO extract (Palantir 2023 Annual Report)Stock-based compensation represented 66% of CFO. When such expense goes through the income statement but is added back to compute CFO, the result is lower earnings and higher cash-flows, which in turn indicate high quality of earnings. However, If the expense is eliminated from the income statement, the inverse takes effect. Higher net income and lower CFO, which is a characteristic of poor earnings quality.Consequently, if stock-based compensation gets eliminated, the cash flows will look poorer and earnings will be higher (and possibly inflated). It is a trade-off that needs to be carefully considered, but since it increases the cash-flow figure, it is likely that such large dilutive compensation will persist.As we can see in the below extract, from FY2022 to FY2023 another 200M shares were added to the total, driving the value of current shareholders even lower. What happens if we carefully investigate the per-share figures?In that case, shareholders haven't realized any intrinsic growth over the past 3 years. Of course, one might make the case that per-share figures don't matter since an increase/decrease in shares does not impact the top or bottom line. I have to remind you, however, that issuing shares and diluting equity is a real expense to the current shareholders as are asked to purchase more shares to offset the dilution effect.Impact of dilution on past growthTop-line expansion is not as good as it looks if we view the per-share figures:Diluted Shares - Impact on I/S (Author's Estimates)It is clear that Palantir averaged a negative -2.7% 3-year revenue per-share growth if we take into account the tremendous equity dilution. On a diluted per-share basis, shareholder's stakes shrank by 11%. On the bright side, YoY(2022-2023) retained earnings increased slightly by 3%.Investors to date have put $5.6B in the enterprise to realize about $300M from operations annually. If we assume that investment was made yesterday to harvest $300M of earnings from operations today, then the return matches the annual yield of a 3 month T-Bill.Market assumptionsEPSNew investors are asked to pay 200 times earnings, given the recent acceleration in the top line.What does a cost of $36 per share mean for Normalized GAAP Diluted EPS $0.11 (TTM) annual earnings? If we assume that 200x is a \"fair value\", GAAP Diluted EPS should grow 200% consistently for the next 5 years.Additionally, if we use 5% for the risk-free rate, which sets the fair P/E at 20, Normalized GAAP Diluted EPS should be $1.8 today to support a fair no-growth valuation.P/BOld Graham readers will recall his comments on paying a price above book value. It is generally not recommended unless the book value premium can be actually realized by the enterprise in the future. A 20x multiple indicates that there is a $76B premium that the company should earn in the future to justify a P/B of 20 bringing it down to a P/B of 1. Of course, no technology company is trading at P/B of 1 because they are perceived to have a wide competitive advantage over other companies. As a result, a P/B of 2 or 3 might be justified. But a P/B of 20 is unreasonable for a startup.Effects of Additional Paid-in Capital (APIC) on Book ValueLast Report, 2023, 2022, 2021 (Seeking Alpha)When an option is exercised, the company raises more cash, stockholders equity goes up by the same amount. This is the reason why we need to consider both figures retained earnings and APIC.We can see that during the latest report and the past 3 years, book value grew at a substantial pace. The investor should not mistake growth in book value, with capital contributed. A large part of the growth in book value was driven by more cash that the company was able to raise by exercising stock options. We can see that APIC between 2023 and Q2 2024 was increased by $341M and retained earnings by $240M for a combined $580M increase. Thus, the stock exercise in the first two quarters, grew book value by nearly 59%.Investment ConsiderationsAll things considered, the enterprise at the current growth state is not of investment quality. Given the large equity dilution, I would recommend a sell for the security. Investors can remain on the sidelines until the long-term view changes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343036239667488,"gmtCreate":1724767447928,"gmtModify":1724767451869,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not shy? Someone is talking different 🐔 story everyday.... tomorrow will he say a Strong Buy and prepare to hit $35 ,😆😆😆😆😆","listText":"Not shy? Someone is talking different 🐔 story everyday.... tomorrow will he say a Strong Buy and prepare to hit $35 ,😆😆😆😆😆","text":"Not shy? Someone is talking different 🐔 story everyday.... tomorrow will he say a Strong Buy and prepare to hit $35 ,😆😆😆😆😆","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343036239667488","repostId":"2462128699","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2462128699","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724742004,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2462128699?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-27 15:00","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Time To Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462128699","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"In our opinion, Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current price.Our valuation model shows that the downside could be nearly 50%.We believe that Palantir is a STRONG SELL right now.nhill After we","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>In our opinion, Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current price.</p></li><li><p>Our valuation model shows that the downside could be nearly 50%.</p></li><li><p>We believe that Palantir is a STRONG SELL right now.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b043dcc871aa0570aa5a295e07696dce\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>nhill</p><p></p><p>After we released our update on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> (NYSE:PLTR) last month, the company published its earnings report for Q2 in which it reported a major boost in sales and increased the guidance. This has led to the growth of Palantir&#39;s stock, which is now over 10% up since our update was released in July. While our bearish thesis hasn&#39;t played out yet, we continue to believe that the company&#39;s stock trades at irrational levels and represents a significant downside.</p><h2 id=\"id_3734143006\">The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly</h2><p>Our recent bearish idea hasn&#39;t materialized yet since Palantir&#39;s share price has grown by over 10% thanks to the positive earnings report which showed that the company&#39;s revenues in Q2 increased by 27.2% Y/Y to $678.13 million, above the expectations by $25.71 million. The increased guidance by the management has also reignited investors&#39; confidence.</p><p>However, we still believe that the company&#39;s growth will slow down, which could prompt the share price to depreciate. If we look closely at the earnings presentation, we will see that while Palantir&#39;s US commercial revenue increased by 55% Y/Y, it increased only by 6% Q/Q. At the same time, while the US commercial count was up 83% Y/Y, it was up only 13% Q/Q.</p><p>The big annual increase could be attributed to the fact that Palantir&#39;s flagship product AIP was launched only in April 2023, so the Q2&#39;23 numbers that served as a base for comparison for the current year were not that impressive in the first place. That&#39;s why the company was able to deliver solid Y/Y growth in Q2&#39;24. We believe that a growth rate won&#39;t be as impressive going forward since the main cohort of clients has already started to use AIP in recent quarters, and we would make the case that the Q/Q numbers support our standpoint.</p><p>In addition, we believe that no matter how useful AIP is for enterprises, with a market cap of over $70 billion Palantir can&#39;t realistically be worth more than half of the entire generative AI market, which is expected to be worth $128 billion this year.</p><h2 id=\"id_552290772\">The Stock Price Continues To Make No Sense</h2><p>When we published our update on Palantir last month, we also added our valuation model, the goal of which was to figure out what is the real value of the company. That model revealed that Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value is only $13.55 per share. Since Palantir reported good numbers for Q2 last week and prompted the management to increase the guidance for the fiscal year, we decided to make some changes to our model as well to better reflect the company&#39;s opportunities and risks.</p><p>On the left side of the table below, some data has been changed, while some has remained the same as before. The tax rate and the perpetual growth rate are the same as they were in our previous valuation model. The share price at the moment of the valuation is $32.12 per share, and the cash reserves data now includes the data from Q2. The forecasted period remained the same as before as well.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 7.68%. The calculation of the discount rate is presented in the middle and the right side of the table below. To calculate the cost of debt, Palantir&#39;s TTM financial data was used. When calculating the cost of equity, we used the beta of 1, which is similar to the market&#39;s beta; the risk-free rate of 3.87%, which is the current yield of the 10-year treasury note; and the market return of 7.70%, which is the inflation-adjusted return of the S&amp;P 500 since 1950. In the end, we got a discount rate of 7.68%, which is similar to the cost of equity simply because Palantir has a relatively clean balance sheet with little total debt. This is why the cost of equity has a greater weight when figuring out the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6689a5abc7731ae238c621be3acf0a42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"188\"/></p><p>Valuation Model (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p></p><p>When it comes to the forecast of Palantir&#39;s sales and earnings, we&#39;ve changed several things. First, we have increased Palantir&#39;s sales expectations for the fiscal year 2024 to $2.75 billion, which is on the higher end of the management&#39;s latest guidance. We also assumed a sales growth rate of 25% in the following period, which is higher than the current expectations. It is done to simply ensure that our model covers a potential increase in guidance as it happened recently when the Q2 report came in and the analysts started to revise their estimates.</p><p>We have also aggressively increased the EBIT assumptions for the upcoming years from the 35% rate that was used in the previous model to 43.1% in the current model. The explanation for it is simple. As generative AI tools and platforms become more popular and able to improve the companies&#39; margins, it makes sense to assume that the earnings are going to improve as well.</p><p>If we look at Microsoft Corporation&#39;s (MSFT) financial statement, we will see that the company has greatly improved its sales and earnings in recent quarters in large thanks to the launch of its generative AI assistant Copilot. Microsoft&#39;s CEO Satya Nadella in the latest conference call also called Palantir one of the leaders of the Models as a Service business, which is experiencing an increase in usage of its products. This indicates that AIP&#39;s and Copilot&#39;s enterprise clients likely have a lot in common. That&#39;s why after we divided Microsoft&#39;s EBIT of $27.93 billion for the recent quarter by its revenues of $64.73 billion, we found out that Microsoft&#39;s EBIT accounts for 43.1% of its revenues and decided to apply the same rate to Palantir as well. By doing so, we could once again ensure that the model properly covers a potential increase in guidance. The forecast for other things remained the same as before.</p><p>Once found the present value of FCF under our new forecast, we can calculate the cumulative present value of FCF, apply the discount rate and the perpetual growth rate from before, and figure out Palantir&#39;s terminal value, the present value of the terminal value, and the enterprise value, which in our case is $36.75 billion. After that, we add the cash resources to the enterprise value and don&#39;t subtract any long-term debt because there isn&#39;t any to calculate Palantir&#39;s equity value, which in our case is $40.75 billion. We then divide the equity value by the number of shares at the end of Q2 and find out that Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value is $16.88 per share. This means that the company is currently overvalued by nearly 50%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e10fa981f83bbf684a18e8fdf42ab864\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/></p><p>Valuation Model (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p></p><p>While Palantir&#39;s intrinsic value in this model increased by over 300 basis points in comparison to our latest model from July, it nevertheless helped us figure out an important thing. By applying optimistic assumptions for the sales and EBIT, we can figure out what is Palantir&#39;s ceiling in terms of its performance and why even under the optimistic assumptions the company remains significantly overvalued. That&#39;s why giving Palantir a STRONG SELL recommendation is the only viable option in our opinion as the current stock price continues to make no sense for us.</p><h2 id=\"id_1667534137\">Major Downside to Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>One thing that seasoned investors know for a fact is that the market can stay irrational longer than they could remain solvent. The story of Palantir&#39;s price action proves this point. Fundamentally, Palantir is extremely overvalued as it has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 100x. However, the stock could continue to trade above the technical support level of $30 per share.</p><p>In our opinion, two things can undermine Palantir&#39;s current momentum. The first thing is the worsening of macro conditions, which could result in the overall market selloff and push Palantir&#39;s price lower closer to its intrinsic value. The second thing is a much lower Y/Y growth of revenues and customer count, which could undermine investors&#39; confidence. Given a much weaker Q/Q growth, this could happen later this year or at the beginning of next year. That is why we believe that Palantir continues to be a STRONG SELL, but it can take a while before the fundamentals begin to matter again.</p><h2 id=\"id_2601506736\">Our Short Strategy</h2><p>In our latest article from July, we disclosed that we are short on Palantir. Back then we saw that the stock was losing its momentum and has hit an important technical resistance level. We opened that position around the time that article was published in the range between $28 and $29 per share and continue to hold it to this day. The position is shares-only, and no put options are involved.</p><p>The chart below shows that after more than a year of depreciation, Palantir&#39;s shares began to rebound in the spring of 2023 primarily thanks to the entrance of the company into the generative AI field with the launch of AIP. However, in 2024, the performance was mixed, as the shares were unable to breach an important technical resistance level of $30 per share first at the start of the year and later earlier this summer, and were trading within a closed range.</p><p>A week after our article was published, the shares depreciated to below $23 per share but were still within the closed range that&#39;s shown between the dotted lines on the chart below. Our thinking was that without a major catalyst, the share price could collapse below that range and depreciate closer to the company&#39;s fair value. However, the earnings results in early August came better than expected and the guidance was improved, which pushed the shares higher to above the $30 per share level at which Palantir currently trades.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9c42bba412da79901ef930159ff44c1d\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p>Stock Performance (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><p>There are several ways to go from here now. If Palantir fails to hold above $30 per share for longer and fails to go above the closed dotted range, then we have a good chance of the stock depreciating to its previous technical support levels which would be much harder to hold without another major catalyst. If the stock price goes higher, then the next major resistance level would be close to the company&#39;s all-time high level of $39 per share.</p><p>In the first scenario, our goal would be to start taking profits at around $20 per share and possibly below, which is relatively close to the intrinsic value of the company in our model. In the second scenario, we plan to exit the position at a loss above $39 per share, wait for the establishment of new support and resistance levels, and only then reenter the short trade since we believe that the growth of Palantir&#39;s stock can&#39;t last forever.</p><p>Since shorting is always risky, we decided to deploy less than 5% of our portfolio capital for this trade as there&#39;s always a possibility that the share price will remain irrational for a while.</p><p>If the stock continues to trade around $30 per share, then we will continue to hold our short position until the price goes significantly up or down. The annual percentage rate of borrowing is less than 1%, so we believe that the risks associated with shorting Palantir are worth it for us right now, as the potential reward could be significant.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Time To Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Time To Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-27 15:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717101-palantir-time-to-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In our opinion, Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current price.Our valuation model shows that the downside could be nearly 50%.We believe that Palantir is a STRONG SELL right now.nhillAfter we ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717101-palantir-time-to-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) ACC","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE0009G5SDU7.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IE000ITXATA3.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE000YTNTUN2.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG)INC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4576":"AR","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4538":"云计算","BK4543":"AI","BK4577":"网络游戏","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717101-palantir-time-to-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2462128699","content_text":"In our opinion, Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current price.Our valuation model shows that the downside could be nearly 50%.We believe that Palantir is a STRONG SELL right now.nhillAfter we released our update on Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) last month, the company published its earnings report for Q2 in which it reported a major boost in sales and increased the guidance. This has led to the growth of Palantir's stock, which is now over 10% up since our update was released in July. While our bearish thesis hasn't played out yet, we continue to believe that the company's stock trades at irrational levels and represents a significant downside.The Good, The Bad, and the UglyOur recent bearish idea hasn't materialized yet since Palantir's share price has grown by over 10% thanks to the positive earnings report which showed that the company's revenues in Q2 increased by 27.2% Y/Y to $678.13 million, above the expectations by $25.71 million. The increased guidance by the management has also reignited investors' confidence.However, we still believe that the company's growth will slow down, which could prompt the share price to depreciate. If we look closely at the earnings presentation, we will see that while Palantir's US commercial revenue increased by 55% Y/Y, it increased only by 6% Q/Q. At the same time, while the US commercial count was up 83% Y/Y, it was up only 13% Q/Q.The big annual increase could be attributed to the fact that Palantir's flagship product AIP was launched only in April 2023, so the Q2'23 numbers that served as a base for comparison for the current year were not that impressive in the first place. That's why the company was able to deliver solid Y/Y growth in Q2'24. We believe that a growth rate won't be as impressive going forward since the main cohort of clients has already started to use AIP in recent quarters, and we would make the case that the Q/Q numbers support our standpoint.In addition, we believe that no matter how useful AIP is for enterprises, with a market cap of over $70 billion Palantir can't realistically be worth more than half of the entire generative AI market, which is expected to be worth $128 billion this year.The Stock Price Continues To Make No SenseWhen we published our update on Palantir last month, we also added our valuation model, the goal of which was to figure out what is the real value of the company. That model revealed that Palantir's intrinsic value is only $13.55 per share. Since Palantir reported good numbers for Q2 last week and prompted the management to increase the guidance for the fiscal year, we decided to make some changes to our model as well to better reflect the company's opportunities and risks.On the left side of the table below, some data has been changed, while some has remained the same as before. The tax rate and the perpetual growth rate are the same as they were in our previous valuation model. The share price at the moment of the valuation is $32.12 per share, and the cash reserves data now includes the data from Q2. The forecasted period remained the same as before as well.The discount rate in our valuation model is 7.68%. The calculation of the discount rate is presented in the middle and the right side of the table below. To calculate the cost of debt, Palantir's TTM financial data was used. When calculating the cost of equity, we used the beta of 1, which is similar to the market's beta; the risk-free rate of 3.87%, which is the current yield of the 10-year treasury note; and the market return of 7.70%, which is the inflation-adjusted return of the S&P 500 since 1950. In the end, we got a discount rate of 7.68%, which is similar to the cost of equity simply because Palantir has a relatively clean balance sheet with little total debt. This is why the cost of equity has a greater weight when figuring out the discount rate.Valuation Model (Bears of Wall Street)When it comes to the forecast of Palantir's sales and earnings, we've changed several things. First, we have increased Palantir's sales expectations for the fiscal year 2024 to $2.75 billion, which is on the higher end of the management's latest guidance. We also assumed a sales growth rate of 25% in the following period, which is higher than the current expectations. It is done to simply ensure that our model covers a potential increase in guidance as it happened recently when the Q2 report came in and the analysts started to revise their estimates.We have also aggressively increased the EBIT assumptions for the upcoming years from the 35% rate that was used in the previous model to 43.1% in the current model. The explanation for it is simple. As generative AI tools and platforms become more popular and able to improve the companies' margins, it makes sense to assume that the earnings are going to improve as well.If we look at Microsoft Corporation's (MSFT) financial statement, we will see that the company has greatly improved its sales and earnings in recent quarters in large thanks to the launch of its generative AI assistant Copilot. Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella in the latest conference call also called Palantir one of the leaders of the Models as a Service business, which is experiencing an increase in usage of its products. This indicates that AIP's and Copilot's enterprise clients likely have a lot in common. That's why after we divided Microsoft's EBIT of $27.93 billion for the recent quarter by its revenues of $64.73 billion, we found out that Microsoft's EBIT accounts for 43.1% of its revenues and decided to apply the same rate to Palantir as well. By doing so, we could once again ensure that the model properly covers a potential increase in guidance. The forecast for other things remained the same as before.Once found the present value of FCF under our new forecast, we can calculate the cumulative present value of FCF, apply the discount rate and the perpetual growth rate from before, and figure out Palantir's terminal value, the present value of the terminal value, and the enterprise value, which in our case is $36.75 billion. After that, we add the cash resources to the enterprise value and don't subtract any long-term debt because there isn't any to calculate Palantir's equity value, which in our case is $40.75 billion. We then divide the equity value by the number of shares at the end of Q2 and find out that Palantir's intrinsic value is $16.88 per share. This means that the company is currently overvalued by nearly 50%.Valuation Model (Bears of Wall Street)While Palantir's intrinsic value in this model increased by over 300 basis points in comparison to our latest model from July, it nevertheless helped us figure out an important thing. By applying optimistic assumptions for the sales and EBIT, we can figure out what is Palantir's ceiling in terms of its performance and why even under the optimistic assumptions the company remains significantly overvalued. That's why giving Palantir a STRONG SELL recommendation is the only viable option in our opinion as the current stock price continues to make no sense for us.Major Downside to Our Bearish ThesisOne thing that seasoned investors know for a fact is that the market can stay irrational longer than they could remain solvent. The story of Palantir's price action proves this point. Fundamentally, Palantir is extremely overvalued as it has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 100x. However, the stock could continue to trade above the technical support level of $30 per share.In our opinion, two things can undermine Palantir's current momentum. The first thing is the worsening of macro conditions, which could result in the overall market selloff and push Palantir's price lower closer to its intrinsic value. The second thing is a much lower Y/Y growth of revenues and customer count, which could undermine investors' confidence. Given a much weaker Q/Q growth, this could happen later this year or at the beginning of next year. That is why we believe that Palantir continues to be a STRONG SELL, but it can take a while before the fundamentals begin to matter again.Our Short StrategyIn our latest article from July, we disclosed that we are short on Palantir. Back then we saw that the stock was losing its momentum and has hit an important technical resistance level. We opened that position around the time that article was published in the range between $28 and $29 per share and continue to hold it to this day. The position is shares-only, and no put options are involved.The chart below shows that after more than a year of depreciation, Palantir's shares began to rebound in the spring of 2023 primarily thanks to the entrance of the company into the generative AI field with the launch of AIP. However, in 2024, the performance was mixed, as the shares were unable to breach an important technical resistance level of $30 per share first at the start of the year and later earlier this summer, and were trading within a closed range.A week after our article was published, the shares depreciated to below $23 per share but were still within the closed range that's shown between the dotted lines on the chart below. Our thinking was that without a major catalyst, the share price could collapse below that range and depreciate closer to the company's fair value. However, the earnings results in early August came better than expected and the guidance was improved, which pushed the shares higher to above the $30 per share level at which Palantir currently trades.Stock Performance (Seeking Alpha)There are several ways to go from here now. If Palantir fails to hold above $30 per share for longer and fails to go above the closed dotted range, then we have a good chance of the stock depreciating to its previous technical support levels which would be much harder to hold without another major catalyst. If the stock price goes higher, then the next major resistance level would be close to the company's all-time high level of $39 per share.In the first scenario, our goal would be to start taking profits at around $20 per share and possibly below, which is relatively close to the intrinsic value of the company in our model. In the second scenario, we plan to exit the position at a loss above $39 per share, wait for the establishment of new support and resistance levels, and only then reenter the short trade since we believe that the growth of Palantir's stock can't last forever.Since shorting is always risky, we decided to deploy less than 5% of our portfolio capital for this trade as there's always a possibility that the share price will remain irrational for a while.If the stock continues to trade around $30 per share, then we will continue to hold our short position until the price goes significantly up or down. The annual percentage rate of borrowing is less than 1%, so we believe that the risks associated with shorting Palantir are worth it for us right now, as the potential reward could be significant.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342597241024736,"gmtCreate":1724684546155,"gmtModify":1724684549879,"author":{"id":"4117888419809232","authorId":"4117888419809232","name":"麥卡倫 18","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04af89be4d25d48563ca4ff59e83a233","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117888419809232","idStr":"4117888419809232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻 what are you talking about 🦜&nbsp;","listText":"👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻 what are you talking about 🦜&nbsp;","text":"👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻 what are you talking about 🦜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342597241024736","repostId":"2461374296","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2461374296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724643065,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2461374296?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-26 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461374296","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.</p></li><li><p>NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to 20%, unveil a $30 to $50 billion buyback, and potentially raise the dividend again.</p></li><li><p>Market options are pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing after earnings, and 5% to 15% is likely, given channel checks and 2024 fundamentals.</p></li><li><p>Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect over $225 billion in sales in 2025, and NVDA has the potential to beat FCF estimates by 50% next year.</p></li><li><p>NVDA&#39;s current estimates justify a 16% rally by year-end, 39% by the end of 2025, and potentially as much as 140% by the end of next year.</p></li><li><p>The current consensus total return potential is 23% to 28% annually through 2029, about 300% total return potential, roughly 4X more than the S&amp;P.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d22057eb1489b30e626df04aa8235a7f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Deagreez</p><p>For Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) investors, it&#39;s been a volatile few weeks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3eac5181a580805cb6ad1dfa56e7b91b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8f31eb5cb3f9d4f5c49917c86f95e83f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>From its record high of $140, NVDA fell to an intraday low of $90 on Aug. 5, during the Yen Carry Trade unwind.</p><p>That&#39;s a 35% peak decline in a matter of weeks.</p><p>And then, from those lows, that panic-selling bottom NVDA soared 45% to $130 before pulling back a bit on Tuesday.</p><p><strong>I Was &#34;Greedy When Others Were Fearful&#34; During The Recent Market Pullback</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/deea900a18efe8b61dced45203751fe1\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"558\"/></p><p>Morningstar</p><p>I use limit orders to keep the target allocation for each stock steady during corrections. Thanks to NVDA&#39;s normal volatility, which fell 2.35X as much as the S&amp;P in this pullback (and 3.5X peak intraday decline), I could buy 650 shares of NVDA going into earnings.</p><p>I didn&#39;t nail the bottom, just over $90 on Aug. 5, but I got close.</p><p>Was I worried as these limits filled? Not at all because I was tracking NVDA&#39;s fundamentals each day and could see that, despite the market panic triggered by hedge fund margin calls and algo trades, NVDA&#39;s future was brighter than ever.</p><p>So let me share the three reasons I bought so much NVDA in recent weeks, going into earnings. More importantly, these three reasons explain why it&#39;s still a potentially good idea for long-term dividend growth investors to buy NVDA even after its strong 40% recovery from its recent lows.</p><h2 id=\"id_1928948722\">Reason 1: Big Beat And Raise Likely During Aug. 28 Earnings</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe73882f9d45c88ba5afd9f998655c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>NVDA reports on Wed, Aug. 28, after the close.</p><p>As usual, earnings estimates have steadily risen by the week, with 37 upward revisions this quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a54a6e424a2db68eb5127a62b6f7072d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3704d62e8b8a9249625bf0af81fd6bb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>NVDA&#39;s track record for beating earnings is perfect over the last two quarters since the company is supply constrained.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, the average sales beat and raise over the last six quarters is 12.5%.</p><p>Taiwan Semi (TSM) says it&#39;s increasing wafer production by 150% in 2024 and 100% in 2025, but thinks that NVDA will remain supply constrained through the end of 2025.</p><p>Regarding its No. 1 supplier, TSM announced 45% sales growth courtesy of insatiable AI chip demand.</p><p><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong>: Analysts at Goldman Sachs are confident that Nvidia will surpass Street consensus for revenue and earnings per share, driven by robust Data Center revenues and operational leverage. They maintain a &#34;buy&#34; recommendation, highlighting Nvidia&#39;s competitive edge in AI and accelerated computing.</p><p><strong>Jefferies</strong>: Analysts at Jefferies expect Nvidia to continue delivering earnings beats, although the magnitude of these surprises may be smaller than in previous quarters. They anticipate a strong earnings report for July, with guidance into October expected to exceed expectations by about $1 billion.</p><p><strong>Wedbush Securities</strong>: Wedbush maintains confidence in Nvidia&#39;s ability to report a strong quarter, citing robust AI spending as a critical driver. They expect Nvidia&#39;s earnings to be bolstered by increased investment from significant customers in AI infrastructure.</p><p>Morningstar and Morgan Stanley estimate 15% to 17% sales beats and raises, and KeyBank is similarly bullish, especially for 2025.</p><p>All of the hyperscalers, the tech giants driving 50% of sales for NVDA right now, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN), have announced they are increasing AI capex this year and next year.</p><p>That likely means that NVDA could sell 100% of production at full prices and record margins.</p><h2 id=\"id_811311096\">2025 Outlook Is Soaring</h2><blockquote><p>In terms of figures, Team Green is expected to ship 60,000 to 70,000 units of Nvidia&#39;s GB200 AI servers, and given that one server is reported to cost around $2 million to $3 million per unit, this means that Team Green will bag in around a whopping $210 billion from just Blackwell servers along, that too in a year.&#34; - Morgan Stanley</p></blockquote><p>KeyBank has similar estimates of &#34;at least $210 billion&#34; in Blackwell sales alone in 2025.</p><p>Now that NVDA has announced a delay in Blackwell shipments (which were supposed to start shipping in Q4), 2024 Blackwell shipments may be pushed into 2025.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>3 Reasons I Bought Nvidia Before Earnings</p></li></ul><p>As I explained in my last pre-earnings update, NVDA&#39;s potential sales in 2025, per TSMC&#39;s supply ramp, is <strong>up to $265 billion.</strong></p><p>KeyBank and Morgan Stanley now estimate $210-plus billion in Blackwell sales alone. Remember that Hopper isn&#39;t going away; it will be a lower-cost option.</p><p>$265 billion is the maximum theoretical revenue that NVDA could achieve if TSM&#39;s ramp is successful and they can sell 100% of capacity at full price.</p><p>Before the Blackwell delay announcement, Morgan and KeyBank estimated $210 billion in Blackwell sales, not including other chips, auxiliary hardware, or NIMS (software).</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Management is guiding for 110% annual software sales through 2030.</p></li><li><p>To $60 billion in annual sales by 2030.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d4454022ee542f0385b00cca8bf09969\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"558\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>The current consensus is $164 billion in 2025 sales, up from $160 billion a few weeks ago and $150 billion at the start of the year.</p><p>NVDA can theoretically sell up to $265 billion next year, and Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect around $230 billion.</p><p>What does that mean for potential free cash flow, beating expectations?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2abcfe5aaa2da5574850f6338013d37f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>Assuming stable 49% free cash flow margins (analysts expect this), potentially representing $65 to $70 billion in sales beat and <strong>$114 billion in free cash flow next year.</strong></p><p>The current consensus is $78 billion, representing a 46% free cash flow beat next year. $114 billion in FCF would be 13% higher than the $101 billion in 2026 FCF analysts currently expect.</p><p><strong>Nvidia Fair Value Profile</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Aug. 21: $132.83 (4.4% upside)</p></li><li><p>Year-end 2024 (current consensus): $148.12 (16% upside)</p></li><li><p><strong><em>Year-end 2025 (current consensus): (39% upside)</em></strong></p></li><li><p>Mid 2025 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario): <strong>$250 to $275 (106% upside)</strong></p></li><li><p><strong><em>Year-end 2026: $307.24 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario:) 141% upside</em></strong></p></li></ul><p>The current analyst base case is that NVDA will have almost 40% upside by the end of next year. If NVDA achieves the maximum growth numbers that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect, there is as much as 141% upside return potential, which is justified by fundamentals.</p><p>Goldman Sachs thinks AI will start to affect GDP growth in 2027 and corporate profits potentially in 2026.</p><p>In other words, 2024 and 2025 are about supply constraints, with hyper-scalers seemingly willing to buy 100% of NVDA capacity (as well as some AMD and INTC AI chips).</p><p>In 2026 and 2027, the years of Rubin and Rubin Ultra chip platforms, NVDA expects hyperscalers to be a minor part of its business as other companies and governments (sovereign AI) continue buying the best chips (for cost efficiency).</p><h2 id=\"id_4170491251\">Reason 2: Long-Term Outlook Keeps Getting Stronger</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/adcc5d7ee4ea1a7b8865ec031674389b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>The median growth consensus for NVDA is 44.1%, up from 40% a few weeks ago and 33% three months ago.</p><p>Long-term EPS growth estimates range from 10% to 54%, with 44.1% being the median.</p><p>Here&#39;s what that looks like in the medium term.</p><p><strong>Nvidia Medium-Term Growth Consensus Forecast</strong></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Sales</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBITDA</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBIT (Operating Income)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Net Income</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$58,039</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$25,051</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$33,240</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$34,748</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$27,603</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$115,536</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$57,624</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$74,897</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$75,564</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$61,025</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$163,532</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$78,290</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$106,824</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$107,248</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$85,132</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$194,395</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$94,500</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$131,407</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$126,724</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$105,058</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$227,147</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$114,526</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$147,514</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$121,372</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$263,891</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$159,219</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$140,294</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$271,796</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$175,244</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$146,898</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Annualized Growth 2024-2029</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>29.3%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>46.2%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>58.1%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>31.0%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>32.1%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Cumulative 2024-2029</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$1,236,297</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$344,940</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$313,128</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$791,513</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$659,779</strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>Free cash flow is growing at almost 50% per year.</p><p>And remember, this is the current consensus. If NVDA achieves $114 billion in FCF next year, as Morgan Stanley thinks is possible, then NVDA will have achieved 2027 results in 2025.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVDA is currently pricing in -2 or -3 years of potential growth if it achieves what Morgan Stanley and KeyBank do next year.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Nvidia Margin Consensus Forecast</strong></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FCF Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBITDA Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBIT (Operating) Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Net Margin</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>57.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>59.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.6%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.8%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.8%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>67.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>50.4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.4%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>60.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.2%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annualized Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>4.0%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>5.7%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>1.2%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2.2%</strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>&#34;Nvidia&#39;s margins can&#39;t possibly be maintained for long.&#34;</p><p>Not according to the median consensus of 62 analysts who cover it for a living and have access to channel checks and data that YouTube prognosticators can&#39;t even dream of.</p><p>Why is that plausible? Because Nvidia&#39;s value proposition to customers is long-term overall operating costs.</p><p>Microsoft is one of the largest GPUs, AI, and cloud computing infrastructure buyers.</p><p>Do you think MSFT minds paying $35K to $40K for the world&#39;s most advanced AI chips if it means that long-term operating costs per token are 50% to 75% lower than what cheaper but less advanced chips can achieve?</p><p>The world&#39;s wealthiest companies can easily afford to take the long-term view, and Nvidia is guiding for at least 50% reductions in cost/token computing costs each year after 2025.</p><p>In other words, NVDA is already the low-cost leader in long-term AI operating costs. For example, Blackwell is 4X better at training and 30X at inference (operating AI models) than Hopper.</p><p>Hopper replaced the Ampere generation of AI chips and was 9X better at training and 30X better at inference than Ampere.</p><p>In other words, between the A100 chips and B200 chips, NVDA has improved training capacity by 36X and inference by 900X.</p><p>And here&#39;s why that matters. Most companies don&#39;t need to do 900X faster inferencing. At some point, speed isn&#39;t as important as energy and cost.</p><p>In the next decade, Jensen Huang says Nvidia can help accelerate computing power in AI by one million-fold.</p><p>For a company like MSFT or OpenAI, it might be optimal to try to have the best LMM, such as Project Stargate (a 10 million GPU model in 2028 costing over $100 billion), 1 million times faster for the same cost and energy.</p><p>Today&#39;s AI inference speed might be fine for others but at 1 million times lower cost (per token).</p><p>For some countries, the goal might be to achieve 1 million times lower energy (and cost) with the same speed as today.</p><p>Or, for most companies, 1000X faster AI computing for 1000X lower cost (and 1000X lower energy usage) might be the ideal sweet spot.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3556749b3d37a2bcac03cba1bb640cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>NVDA spends $10 billion annually on R&amp;D, and that is expected to continue growing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a3e393c461d7f4f64d80a6a11be1dc6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>NVDA&#39;s R&amp;D spending is expected to triple to $30 billion in 2029. The company&#39;s historical median 20% to 25% free cash flow return on invested capital means its growth spending is highly efficient.</p><p>In the last year, the free cash flow return on invested capital reached 87%. That isn&#39;t sustainable, but for now, the more Nvidia spends, the faster it grows.</p><blockquote><p>The more you buy the more you save.&#34; - Jensen Huang&#39;s sales pitch at keynotes</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b16784118d501e9a61ea72a0991bc002\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\"/></p><p>Glassdoor</p><p>Since 2022, NVDA has been rated among the top five companies to work for, and its workers consider Jensen Huang the fourth-best CEO.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/17cd68b32e5c86dc14a191362ceb6166\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"817\"/></p><p>Blind</p><p>76% of NVDA employees are millionaires.</p><p>If you&#39;re a world-class AI computer engineer, do you want to work for Intel? Or a thriving industry leader whose CEO is hailed as a genius?</p><p>Happy, productive employees who are getting richer than they ever dreamed of are another reason to ride strong with Jensen Huang.</p><p><strong>Jensen Huang Owns 3.5% Of NVDA And Is The 12th Richest Person On Earth.</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9df89c5aa021d7e8f207a4aba132ad77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Jensen Huang has been CEO for 30 years (he co-founded the company). He says he plans to remain CEO for 30 to 40 more years.</p><p>If he can keep his finger on the pulse of future tech as well as he has for the last 30 years, Huang would be a potential Buffett of tech.</p><h2 id=\"id_170916229\">Nvidia Is A Dividend Growth Dream Stock</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Metric</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Total Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$4,097.79</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$925.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$447.31</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Inflation-Adjusted Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$2,145.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$484.74</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$234.19</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Starting Yield</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.18%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Yield On Cost</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>89.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.96%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>46.68%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>4.28%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>3.12%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Annual Income Growth</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30.6%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>NVDA didn&#39;t start paying a dividend until 2012. And the dividend was low and frozen for years. Yet, NVDA has delivered 4X as much inflation-adjusted income as the S&amp;P and almost 10X more than the Nasdaq.</p><p>Income investors who have owned NVDA since the beginning now see an inflation-adjusted 47% yield on cost. Analysts say every $1000 invested at the IPO now pays $470 yearly in dividends, likely to grow 40% to 50% annually.</p><h2 id=\"id_3538347583\">Reason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable Price</h2><p>No one denies that Nvidia is an amazingly innovative or fast-growing company.</p><p>The major concern many investors have is whether it&#39;s overvalued.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7e88dfddc67d0ddaaafa7c5ddaa526e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>NVDA is trading at 38.87X forward earnings.</p><p>Its free cash flow yield (EV/FCF) is 40.3X next year&#39;s estimates, representing a forward cash-adjusted PEG ratio of 0.91. Its current PEG ratio, which is measured the traditional way, is 0.95.</p><p>So Peter Lynch would say that as long as NVDA keeps growing as expected, it will grow at a reasonable price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2254745276\">Nvidia Objective Market Determined Fair Value Profile</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Time Frame (Years)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Average PE</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Average P/FCF</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annual EPS Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annual FCF Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EPS PEG</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FCF PEG</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.25</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.78</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.34</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.01</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.97</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.23</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.08</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.27</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.02</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.95</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.93</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.34</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.26</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.99</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.06</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.41</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.56</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.03</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>42.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.79</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.87</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.91</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.65</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.03</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.66</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.31</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.05</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.83</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38.49</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.68</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.38</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.12</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.84</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>41.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44.57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.01</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44.18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46.15</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.96</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>42.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.69</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.80</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.02</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.48</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.31</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>62.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.62</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.08</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.08</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.75</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>58.05</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.33</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.28</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>59.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>50.89</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>51.53</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>67.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>72.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>58.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.16</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>82.81</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>73.13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>79.72</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>87.25</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>70.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>83.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>92.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>288.38</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>614.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.15</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.3645</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>50.426</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>59.4925</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>72.697</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>0.89</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>1.06</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>38.99</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.66</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>47.84</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.94</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>0.88</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>1.08</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><em>2030 FCF Consensus</em></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><em>$154,421.06</em></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Current Market Cap</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$2,420,000.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2029 Fair Value</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Annualized Return Potential</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Median)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$6,587,602.59</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Increase In Value (Median)</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>172.21%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$350.09</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>22.25%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Average)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$7,786,836.57</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Increase In Value (Average)</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>221.77%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$412.86</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>26.35%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>A PEG of 1 is what NVDA has historically traded at for the last 20 years. That&#39;s not opinion. It&#39;s objective market fact. So, if NVDA trades at a PEG of 1, it&#39;s objectively not overvalued.</p><p>The first 2030 sales estimates are $307 billion, or 17.8% annualized from 2024 to 2030.</p><p>That means a historical fair value of $6.6 trillion to $7.8 trillion or 172% to 222% consensus fundamentally justified fair value by the end of 2029.</p><p>That would translate into 22% to 27% annualized returns for the next 5.5 years.</p><p>Remember, these are the current consensus estimates, which rise with each quarterly beat and raise.</p><h2 id=\"id_1005571806\">Risks To Consider: Why Nvidia Isn&#39;t Right For Everyone</h2><p>Options markets are currently pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing post earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea024618bf310da9de53b8fa37c04d71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\"/></p><p>Reuters</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean NVDA will go up or down 9%. I expect a 5% to 15% pop, but up to a 25% upward move might occur if NVDA pulls off a big enough beat and raise.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s epic gains have been justified by record fundamental growth.</p><p>And the bear markets this year, which have been 25% and 35%, respectively, have not been justified by fundamentals.</p><p>It&#39;s easy to be &#34;greedy when others are fearful&#34; when all the fundamentals are strong. But what happens when NVDA&#39;s earnings decline?</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Years</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EPS Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Peak Decline</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-82%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-78.9%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2013 to 2014</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-30.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-62.8%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-36%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-48.4%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-24%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-46.4%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer, FAST Graphs, FactSet)</em></p><p>In the last 15 years, NVDA&#39;s median EPS decline has resulted in a 24% earnings recession.</p><p>The market&#39;s median reaction is a nearly 50% sell-off.</p><p>If smaller language models prove as effective as LMMs or specialized chips better than GPUs, it could disrupt NVDA&#39;s current AI lead.</p><p>New types of chips are indeed being developed to outperform traditional GPUs specifically for AI tasks. These include specialized AI chips, such as Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), designed to handle AI workloads more efficiently than general-purpose GPUs.</p><p><strong>ASICs</strong>: These are custom-designed chips optimized for specific applications, including AI. They offer higher efficiency and performance for particular tasks compared to general-purpose GPUs. For example, Google&#39;s TPU is an ASIC designed to accelerate machine learning workloads.</p><p><strong>TPUs</strong>: Developed by Google, TPUs are specifically designed to accelerate machine learning tasks. They are optimized for TensorFlow, Google&#39;s machine learning framework, and provide significant performance improvements for AI applications.</p><p><strong>FPGAs</strong>: Field-Programmable Gate Arrays are another type of AI chip that can be configured for specific tasks. They offer flexibility and can be optimized for various AI workloads, although they may not always match the raw performance of ASICs or TPUs.</p><p>These specialized AI chips are designed to handle the massive parallel processing required for AI tasks more efficiently than GPUs. They achieve this by optimizing for lower precision arithmetic, which reduces the number of transistors needed and, thus, the energy consumption while maintaining the necessary performance for AI algorithms. This makes them particularly suitable for applications like large language models, edge AI, and autonomous vehicles, where efficiency and speed are critical.</p><p>NVDA must maintain its lead in AI tech. If it loses the ability to offer the lowest long-term cost option, then the bullish thesis will be thrown out the window.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99b6b6beb6b28bea17e0c91b56174fd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer</p><p>Here are the largest ten bear markets for NVDA.</p><p>And here&#39;s how volatile this hyper-volatility, hyper-growth blue chip is.</p><h2 id=\"id_2906987552\">10% Worst Monthly Returns</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P 500</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Month</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-48.66%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13.12%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.38%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2008</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>7</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-38.89%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>0.64%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.90%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-35.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.62%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.88%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-35.14%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.16%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-34.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.47%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-32.81%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.09%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.66%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-32.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13.60%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.78%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-31.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.84%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-27.72%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-11.89%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.05%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-25.07%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.23%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.38%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.60%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.91%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.67%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.55%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.22%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.21%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9.61%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.35%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.94%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.47%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.41%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.79%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2018</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>11</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-22.40%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.26%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>1.85%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2010</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.17%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.99%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.89%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.53%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.01%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.82%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2006</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.36%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.24%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.01%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.04%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.85%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-4.94%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2011</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.46%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.69%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.43%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.05%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.92%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.55%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-10.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.49%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.80%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2011</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>3</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-18.53%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.45%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>0.01%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.65%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.79%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.21%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-15.47%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-16.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2005</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.04%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.83%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-25.30%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-7.96%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-4.81%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-22.40%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-8.23%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-5.17%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>In the last 25 years, NVDA has had 24 20%-plus monthly declines. It&#39;s fallen by almost 50% in a single month.</p><p>It&#39;s fallen as much as 40% in a month while the S&amp;P and Nasdaq were flat!</p><p>If you can&#39;t tolerate such volatility and harness it to buy more when sentiment is at its worst, you will miss out on gains like these.</p><h2 id=\"id_3661157528\">10% Best Monthly Returns</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P 500</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Month</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2003</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>82.62%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.52%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.48%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>72.68%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.57%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>57.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.45%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.50%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11.79%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.74%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.30%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2011</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>55.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.33%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-17.49%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.60%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.95%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.17%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.91%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.47%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.23%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.90%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.41%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.34%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.46%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>24.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.63%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.69%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.64%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.29%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.29%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13.63%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.60%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.45%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.01%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.58%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9.69%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2016</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.37%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.70%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2006</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.77%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.18%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2016</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>29.76%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.44%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.68%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.58%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.22%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.04%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.05%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.57%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.81%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.80%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.96%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.80%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.76%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.64%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.89%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.06%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2005</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.09%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.94%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.98%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25.41%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.56%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>38.63%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>7.52%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>3.52%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>32.29%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>6.15%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>4.45%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>NVDA&#39;s 10% best months are a median 32% gain, with returns as strong as 82% in a single month.</p><p>Can you see the benefits of rebalancing in real time during bear markets using managed futures and limit orders?</p><p>The 40% monthly crashes are what create the 82% monthly rallies. If your optimal NVDA allocation is 5% and falls to 40%, you can buy with limits and keep it at 5% the entire time. And so when that face-ripping rally comes around, when NVDA overshoots to the bottom, you end up with maximum benefit.</p><p>Then, at annual rebalancing time, you can harvest those excess returns, including bubble excess valuations, to buy high-yield blue chips to compound income even faster.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/75602ba57743d090b88e1c3c02805c91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"592\"/></p><p>DK</p><p>This is why I am so bullish on NVDA. Not just for the growth, I don&#39;t care about growth. I care about total returns because income tracks total returns due to annual rebalancing.</p><p>By harvesting the yield generated by NVDA&#39;s extreme volatility, long-term NVDA investors can maximize long-term inflation-adjusted income.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7435f5638696097962ff9f887dc9f790\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer</p><p>NVDA&#39;s 5% worst months are 30% monthly declines, 3X worse than the S&amp;P&#39;s 10% worst 5% of months, and 2X worse than the Nasdaq&#39;s 15% worst monthly returns.</p><p>NVDA has historically captured 329% of the S&amp;P&#39;s upside in exchange for 183% of its downside when stocks fall.</p><p>It delivered safe 26% withdrawal rates, though no investor would ever be 100% NVDA as a retirement plan.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b926948bee47b2ae775fc6fde67d425c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\"/></p><p>Managed Futures = KMLM (since Jan 2021) (Portfolio Visualizer)</p><p>By combining NVDA with managed futures, you can adjust its volatility to what you can emotionally and financially stand.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>KMLM: 5 Reasons You Might Want To Buy This 8.2% Yielding ETF</p></li></ul><p>For example, a 50% NVDA and 50% KMLM stock bucket captured 189% of the S&amp;P&#39;s upside with 22% of its downside.</p><p>25% NVDA and 75% KMLM captured the market, 91% of the S&amp;P upside, with a 26% downside.</p><p>That means since Jan 2021, a 75% KMLM and 25% NVDA combo went up 9% when the S&amp;P was up 10% and up 2.6% when the market was down 10%.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>CTA: 5 Reasons I Added This 7.6% Yielding ETF To My Portfolio</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f04095f0a7838c320c83cfa5691a2483\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\"/></p><p>Since April 2022 (Portfolio Visualizer)</p><p>This is the key to emotional and financial risk management. I&#39;m not trying to time whether NVDA will soar or crash. No one can predict that.</p><h4 id=\"id_2011515392\">Trust Asset Allocation, Not Market Timing, To Control Volatility</h4><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51dc5f93b968e43a6a4ae830454d15e9\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"743\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>NVDA has risks, including regulatory/antitrust risks, R&amp;D efficiency risks, and over 1,000 other risks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85e9f47a0f07ff31c481fabf5b91da78\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"648\"/></p><p>S&amp;P</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P LT Risk Management Score</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Rating</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0% to 9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Very Poor</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10% to 19%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Poor</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20% to 29%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Suboptimal</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30% to 59%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Acceptable</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>60% to 69%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Good</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>70% to 79%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Very Good</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>80+%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Exceptional</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>NVDA</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>64.80%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Global Percentile</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>88.37%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: S&amp;P)</em></p><h2 id=\"id_1302024128\">Bottom Line: Nvidia Is A Reasonable Buy Going Into Earnings And One Of The Top Return Potentials For The Rest Of The Year</h2><p>Let me be clear. I never make forecasts. I look at consensus fundamentals on quality companies and then calculate historically justified fundamental total return potentials.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s year-end fair value is $147, and if it beats and raises as expected in this year&#39;s final two earnings, that would likely rise to $175 to $195.</p><p>NVDA has been tracking its fair value for about 18 months, ever since the AI explosion sent its fundamentals soaring at record rates.</p><p>Does that mean NVDA will be $200 by year-end? As we&#39;ve seen many times this year, market sentiment is fickle.</p><p>NVDA has soared as much as 50% in one month, crashed 25% weekly, and soared 45% in the last few days.</p><p>But it keeps returning to historical fair value, 40.14X earnings, each time, as it has for the last decade.</p><p>It&#39;s critical to size your financial and emotional risk with NVDA properly. This stock is the quintessential high-volatility hyper-growth blue chip.</p><p>The downside volatility for the unprepared investor can be soul crushing. The volatility to the upside, created by the extreme crashes, is mind blowing.</p><p>But leave the speculation to the traders. Don&#39;t attempt to time NVDA. If you like the company, including its visionary CEO, who says he wants to keep innovating, buy at a reasonable price ($132.83 fair value or lower) and hold on.</p><p>Once my annual asset allocation is set, I manage my NVDA risk by rebalancing NVDA on a fixed schedule, using trailing stops.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>What You Need To Know About Protecting Your Portfolio From Recession And Bear Markets</p></li><li><p>The report includes a section on trailing stops, which I use when selling stocks during annual rebalancing.</p></li></ul><p>I&#39;m targeting an 11% max overweight on NVDA this year because this is the lowest-risk year for NVDA.</p><p>That&#39;s because TSM&#39;s ramp is running through 2025 (possibly into 2026), and TSM management has confirmed that NVDA will likely be capacity-constrained by the end of 2025.</p><p>That means NVDA&#39;s potential for up to $265 billion in revenue capacity (if there is a demand) could support the $225 to $235 billion that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect.</p><p>Given that the market is 12-month forward-looking, the risk of an air gap in demand (sudden decrease in orders and collapse of margins) is very low for all of 2024.</p><p>Investors will start looking to 2026 in 2025, which means more significant risks of a sustained 40% to 60% bear market should an air gap develop.</p><p>I&#39;ll adjust the target allocation to 7.5% to 9.1% next year, depending on the economy&#39;s performance, based on my portfolio&#39;s algo-driven risk management rules, which are optimized for my family&#39;s needs at any time.</p><p>I&#39;m not telling you what allocation to use for NVDA (if any). I&#39;m using myself as an example.</p><p>I share my limit buys, reasoning, and the best available data from all 62 analysts.</p><p>But the bottom line? With high confidence, I&#39;m riding into NVDA earnings with a record number of shares. Jensen fans will be impressed with the following:</p><p><strong>My NVDA Earnings Expectations</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>$30 to $50 billion buyback</p></li><li><p>Possibly a doubling of the dividend.</p></li><li><p>12.5% to 20% beat and raise.</p></li><li><p>5% to 15% pop (options market pricing in 8.7% one-day swing).</p></li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-26 11:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2461374296","content_text":"NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to 20%, unveil a $30 to $50 billion buyback, and potentially raise the dividend again.Market options are pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing after earnings, and 5% to 15% is likely, given channel checks and 2024 fundamentals.Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect over $225 billion in sales in 2025, and NVDA has the potential to beat FCF estimates by 50% next year.NVDA's current estimates justify a 16% rally by year-end, 39% by the end of 2025, and potentially as much as 140% by the end of next year.The current consensus total return potential is 23% to 28% annually through 2029, about 300% total return potential, roughly 4X more than the S&P.DeagreezFor Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) investors, it's been a volatile few weeks.YchartsYchartsFrom its record high of $140, NVDA fell to an intraday low of $90 on Aug. 5, during the Yen Carry Trade unwind.That's a 35% peak decline in a matter of weeks.And then, from those lows, that panic-selling bottom NVDA soared 45% to $130 before pulling back a bit on Tuesday.I Was \"Greedy When Others Were Fearful\" During The Recent Market PullbackMorningstarI use limit orders to keep the target allocation for each stock steady during corrections. Thanks to NVDA's normal volatility, which fell 2.35X as much as the S&P in this pullback (and 3.5X peak intraday decline), I could buy 650 shares of NVDA going into earnings.I didn't nail the bottom, just over $90 on Aug. 5, but I got close.Was I worried as these limits filled? Not at all because I was tracking NVDA's fundamentals each day and could see that, despite the market panic triggered by hedge fund margin calls and algo trades, NVDA's future was brighter than ever.So let me share the three reasons I bought so much NVDA in recent weeks, going into earnings. More importantly, these three reasons explain why it's still a potentially good idea for long-term dividend growth investors to buy NVDA even after its strong 40% recovery from its recent lows.Reason 1: Big Beat And Raise Likely During Aug. 28 EarningsSeeking AlphaNVDA reports on Wed, Aug. 28, after the close.As usual, earnings estimates have steadily risen by the week, with 37 upward revisions this quarter.Seeking AlphaSeeking AlphaNVDA's track record for beating earnings is perfect over the last two quarters since the company is supply constrained.According to Bloomberg, the average sales beat and raise over the last six quarters is 12.5%.Taiwan Semi (TSM) says it's increasing wafer production by 150% in 2024 and 100% in 2025, but thinks that NVDA will remain supply constrained through the end of 2025.Regarding its No. 1 supplier, TSM announced 45% sales growth courtesy of insatiable AI chip demand.Goldman Sachs: Analysts at Goldman Sachs are confident that Nvidia will surpass Street consensus for revenue and earnings per share, driven by robust Data Center revenues and operational leverage. They maintain a \"buy\" recommendation, highlighting Nvidia's competitive edge in AI and accelerated computing.Jefferies: Analysts at Jefferies expect Nvidia to continue delivering earnings beats, although the magnitude of these surprises may be smaller than in previous quarters. They anticipate a strong earnings report for July, with guidance into October expected to exceed expectations by about $1 billion.Wedbush Securities: Wedbush maintains confidence in Nvidia's ability to report a strong quarter, citing robust AI spending as a critical driver. They expect Nvidia's earnings to be bolstered by increased investment from significant customers in AI infrastructure.Morningstar and Morgan Stanley estimate 15% to 17% sales beats and raises, and KeyBank is similarly bullish, especially for 2025.All of the hyperscalers, the tech giants driving 50% of sales for NVDA right now, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN), have announced they are increasing AI capex this year and next year.That likely means that NVDA could sell 100% of production at full prices and record margins.2025 Outlook Is SoaringIn terms of figures, Team Green is expected to ship 60,000 to 70,000 units of Nvidia's GB200 AI servers, and given that one server is reported to cost around $2 million to $3 million per unit, this means that Team Green will bag in around a whopping $210 billion from just Blackwell servers along, that too in a year.\" - Morgan StanleyKeyBank has similar estimates of \"at least $210 billion\" in Blackwell sales alone in 2025.Now that NVDA has announced a delay in Blackwell shipments (which were supposed to start shipping in Q4), 2024 Blackwell shipments may be pushed into 2025.3 Reasons I Bought Nvidia Before EarningsAs I explained in my last pre-earnings update, NVDA's potential sales in 2025, per TSMC's supply ramp, is up to $265 billion.KeyBank and Morgan Stanley now estimate $210-plus billion in Blackwell sales alone. Remember that Hopper isn't going away; it will be a lower-cost option.$265 billion is the maximum theoretical revenue that NVDA could achieve if TSM's ramp is successful and they can sell 100% of capacity at full price.Before the Blackwell delay announcement, Morgan and KeyBank estimated $210 billion in Blackwell sales, not including other chips, auxiliary hardware, or NIMS (software).Management is guiding for 110% annual software sales through 2030.To $60 billion in annual sales by 2030.FactSetThe current consensus is $164 billion in 2025 sales, up from $160 billion a few weeks ago and $150 billion at the start of the year.NVDA can theoretically sell up to $265 billion next year, and Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect around $230 billion.What does that mean for potential free cash flow, beating expectations?FactSetAssuming stable 49% free cash flow margins (analysts expect this), potentially representing $65 to $70 billion in sales beat and $114 billion in free cash flow next year.The current consensus is $78 billion, representing a 46% free cash flow beat next year. $114 billion in FCF would be 13% higher than the $101 billion in 2026 FCF analysts currently expect.Nvidia Fair Value ProfileAug. 21: $132.83 (4.4% upside)Year-end 2024 (current consensus): $148.12 (16% upside)Year-end 2025 (current consensus): (39% upside)Mid 2025 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario): $250 to $275 (106% upside)Year-end 2026: $307.24 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario:) 141% upsideThe current analyst base case is that NVDA will have almost 40% upside by the end of next year. If NVDA achieves the maximum growth numbers that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect, there is as much as 141% upside return potential, which is justified by fundamentals.Goldman Sachs thinks AI will start to affect GDP growth in 2027 and corporate profits potentially in 2026.In other words, 2024 and 2025 are about supply constraints, with hyper-scalers seemingly willing to buy 100% of NVDA capacity (as well as some AMD and INTC AI chips).In 2026 and 2027, the years of Rubin and Rubin Ultra chip platforms, NVDA expects hyperscalers to be a minor part of its business as other companies and governments (sovereign AI) continue buying the best chips (for cost efficiency).Reason 2: Long-Term Outlook Keeps Getting StrongerFactSetThe median growth consensus for NVDA is 44.1%, up from 40% a few weeks ago and 33% three months ago.Long-term EPS growth estimates range from 10% to 54%, with 44.1% being the median.Here's what that looks like in the medium term.Nvidia Medium-Term Growth Consensus ForecastYearSalesFree Cash FlowEBITDAEBIT (Operating Income)Net Income2023$58,039$25,051$33,240$34,748$27,6032024$115,536$57,624$74,897$75,564$61,0252025$163,532$78,290$106,824$107,248$85,1322026$194,395$94,500$131,407$126,724$105,0582027$227,147$114,526NA$147,514$121,3722028$263,891NANA$159,219$140,2942029$271,796NANA$175,244$146,898Annualized Growth 2024-202929.3%46.2%58.1%31.0%32.1%Cumulative 2024-2029$1,236,297$344,940$313,128$791,513$659,779Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)Free cash flow is growing at almost 50% per year.And remember, this is the current consensus. If NVDA achieves $114 billion in FCF next year, as Morgan Stanley thinks is possible, then NVDA will have achieved 2027 results in 2025.NVDA is currently pricing in -2 or -3 years of potential growth if it achieves what Morgan Stanley and KeyBank do next year.Nvidia Margin Consensus ForecastYearFCF MarginEBITDA MarginEBIT (Operating) MarginNet Margin202343.2%57.3%59.9%47.6%202449.9%64.8%65.4%52.8%202547.9%65.3%65.6%52.1%202648.6%67.6%65.2%54.0%202750.4%NA64.9%53.4%2028NANA60.3%53.2%2029NANA64.5%54.0%Annualized Growth4.0%5.7%1.2%2.2%Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)\"Nvidia's margins can't possibly be maintained for long.\"Not according to the median consensus of 62 analysts who cover it for a living and have access to channel checks and data that YouTube prognosticators can't even dream of.Why is that plausible? Because Nvidia's value proposition to customers is long-term overall operating costs.Microsoft is one of the largest GPUs, AI, and cloud computing infrastructure buyers.Do you think MSFT minds paying $35K to $40K for the world's most advanced AI chips if it means that long-term operating costs per token are 50% to 75% lower than what cheaper but less advanced chips can achieve?The world's wealthiest companies can easily afford to take the long-term view, and Nvidia is guiding for at least 50% reductions in cost/token computing costs each year after 2025.In other words, NVDA is already the low-cost leader in long-term AI operating costs. For example, Blackwell is 4X better at training and 30X at inference (operating AI models) than Hopper.Hopper replaced the Ampere generation of AI chips and was 9X better at training and 30X better at inference than Ampere.In other words, between the A100 chips and B200 chips, NVDA has improved training capacity by 36X and inference by 900X.And here's why that matters. Most companies don't need to do 900X faster inferencing. At some point, speed isn't as important as energy and cost.In the next decade, Jensen Huang says Nvidia can help accelerate computing power in AI by one million-fold.For a company like MSFT or OpenAI, it might be optimal to try to have the best LMM, such as Project Stargate (a 10 million GPU model in 2028 costing over $100 billion), 1 million times faster for the same cost and energy.Today's AI inference speed might be fine for others but at 1 million times lower cost (per token).For some countries, the goal might be to achieve 1 million times lower energy (and cost) with the same speed as today.Or, for most companies, 1000X faster AI computing for 1000X lower cost (and 1000X lower energy usage) might be the ideal sweet spot.YchartsNVDA spends $10 billion annually on R&D, and that is expected to continue growing.FactSetNVDA's R&D spending is expected to triple to $30 billion in 2029. The company's historical median 20% to 25% free cash flow return on invested capital means its growth spending is highly efficient.In the last year, the free cash flow return on invested capital reached 87%. That isn't sustainable, but for now, the more Nvidia spends, the faster it grows.The more you buy the more you save.\" - Jensen Huang's sales pitch at keynotesGlassdoorSince 2022, NVDA has been rated among the top five companies to work for, and its workers consider Jensen Huang the fourth-best CEO.Blind76% of NVDA employees are millionaires.If you're a world-class AI computer engineer, do you want to work for Intel? Or a thriving industry leader whose CEO is hailed as a genius?Happy, productive employees who are getting richer than they ever dreamed of are another reason to ride strong with Jensen Huang.Jensen Huang Owns 3.5% Of NVDA And Is The 12th Richest Person On Earth.BloombergJensen Huang has been CEO for 30 years (he co-founded the company). He says he plans to remain CEO for 30 to 40 more years.If he can keep his finger on the pulse of future tech as well as he has for the last 30 years, Huang would be a potential Buffett of tech.Nvidia Is A Dividend Growth Dream StockMetricNvidiaS&PNasdaqTotal Income$4,097.79$925.85$447.31Inflation-Adjusted Income$2,145.44$484.74$234.19Starting Yield0.00%1.18%0%Yield On Cost89.2%8.2%5.96%Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost46.68%4.28%3.12%Annual Income Growth22.5%8.5%30.6%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)NVDA didn't start paying a dividend until 2012. And the dividend was low and frozen for years. Yet, NVDA has delivered 4X as much inflation-adjusted income as the S&P and almost 10X more than the Nasdaq.Income investors who have owned NVDA since the beginning now see an inflation-adjusted 47% yield on cost. Analysts say every $1000 invested at the IPO now pays $470 yearly in dividends, likely to grow 40% to 50% annually.Reason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable PriceNo one denies that Nvidia is an amazingly innovative or fast-growing company.The major concern many investors have is whether it's overvalued.FactSetNVDA is trading at 38.87X forward earnings.Its free cash flow yield (EV/FCF) is 40.3X next year's estimates, representing a forward cash-adjusted PEG ratio of 0.91. Its current PEG ratio, which is measured the traditional way, is 0.95.So Peter Lynch would say that as long as NVDA keeps growing as expected, it will grow at a reasonable price.Nvidia Objective Market Determined Fair Value ProfileTime Frame (Years)Average PEAverage P/FCFAnnual EPS GrowthAnnual FCF GrowthEPS PEGFCF PEG2035.7134.9434.2532.781.041.071934.8234.9434.3436.191.010.971834.533.2328.4426.081.211.271735.0233.9526.1426.931.341.261635.9934.4425.5522.061.411.561537.2736.0342.9139.790.870.911437.6536.0345.9833.660.821.071335.9137.3140.0533.820.901.101235.8338.4939.6834.380.901.121137.8441.1444.5740.550.851.011040.1444.1852.9646.150.760.96942.547.6953.1346.540.801.02845.4852.3162.2447.70.731.10748.5456.2753.6252.080.911.08649.7558.0549.745.331.001.28548.8559.2150.8953.850.961.10451.5367.5472.9858.240.711.16353.2782.8173.1379.720.731.04253.7187.2570.9183.850.761.04152.9892.71288.38614.240.180.15Average42.364550.42659.492572.6970.891.06Median38.9942.6647.8442.940.881.082030 FCF Consensus$154,421.06Current Market Cap$2,420,000.002029 Fair ValueAnnualized Return PotentialFree Cash Flow Fair Value (Median)$6,587,602.59Increase In Value (Median)172.21%$350.0922.25%Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Average)$7,786,836.57Increase In Value (Average)221.77%$412.8626.35%Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)A PEG of 1 is what NVDA has historically traded at for the last 20 years. That's not opinion. It's objective market fact. So, if NVDA trades at a PEG of 1, it's objectively not overvalued.The first 2030 sales estimates are $307 billion, or 17.8% annualized from 2024 to 2030.That means a historical fair value of $6.6 trillion to $7.8 trillion or 172% to 222% consensus fundamentally justified fair value by the end of 2029.That would translate into 22% to 27% annualized returns for the next 5.5 years.Remember, these are the current consensus estimates, which rise with each quarterly beat and raise.Risks To Consider: Why Nvidia Isn't Right For EveryoneOptions markets are currently pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing post earnings.ReutersBut that doesn't mean NVDA will go up or down 9%. I expect a 5% to 15% pop, but up to a 25% upward move might occur if NVDA pulls off a big enough beat and raise.NVDA's epic gains have been justified by record fundamental growth.And the bear markets this year, which have been 25% and 35%, respectively, have not been justified by fundamentals.It's easy to be \"greedy when others are fearful\" when all the fundamentals are strong. But what happens when NVDA's earnings decline?YearsEPS GrowthPeak Decline2009-82%-78.9%2013 to 2014-22%-22.1%2020-13%-30.0%2023-25%-62.8%Average-36%-48.4%Median-24%-46.4%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer, FAST Graphs, FactSet)In the last 15 years, NVDA's median EPS decline has resulted in a 24% earnings recession.The market's median reaction is a nearly 50% sell-off.If smaller language models prove as effective as LMMs or specialized chips better than GPUs, it could disrupt NVDA's current AI lead.New types of chips are indeed being developed to outperform traditional GPUs specifically for AI tasks. These include specialized AI chips, such as Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), designed to handle AI workloads more efficiently than general-purpose GPUs.ASICs: These are custom-designed chips optimized for specific applications, including AI. They offer higher efficiency and performance for particular tasks compared to general-purpose GPUs. For example, Google's TPU is an ASIC designed to accelerate machine learning workloads.TPUs: Developed by Google, TPUs are specifically designed to accelerate machine learning tasks. They are optimized for TensorFlow, Google's machine learning framework, and provide significant performance improvements for AI applications.FPGAs: Field-Programmable Gate Arrays are another type of AI chip that can be configured for specific tasks. They offer flexibility and can be optimized for various AI workloads, although they may not always match the raw performance of ASICs or TPUs.These specialized AI chips are designed to handle the massive parallel processing required for AI tasks more efficiently than GPUs. They achieve this by optimizing for lower precision arithmetic, which reduces the number of transistors needed and, thus, the energy consumption while maintaining the necessary performance for AI algorithms. This makes them particularly suitable for applications like large language models, edge AI, and autonomous vehicles, where efficiency and speed are critical.NVDA must maintain its lead in AI tech. If it loses the ability to offer the lowest long-term cost option, then the bullish thesis will be thrown out the window.Portfolio VisualizerHere are the largest ten bear markets for NVDA.And here's how volatile this hyper-volatility, hyper-growth blue chip is.10% Worst Monthly ReturnsNvidiaNasdaqS&P 500YearMonthReturnReturnReturn20026-48.66%-13.12%-7.38%20087-38.89%0.64%-0.90%20027-35.56%-8.62%-7.88%20019-35.14%-20.88%-8.16%200011-34.83%-22.91%-7.47%200212-32.81%-12.09%-5.66%20224-32.03%-13.60%-8.78%19999-31.56%0.84%-2.24%20081-27.72%-11.89%-6.05%20195-25.07%-8.23%-6.38%201810-24.98%-8.60%-6.91%20047-24.67%-7.55%-3.22%20086-24.21%-9.61%-8.35%200010-24.10%-7.94%-0.47%20022-22.41%-12.28%-1.79%201811-22.40%-0.26%1.85%20106-22.30%-5.98%-5.17%20044-22.27%-2.99%-1.89%20024-21.53%-12.01%-5.82%20065-21.36%-7.24%-3.01%20001-21.04%-1.85%-4.94%20116-20.46%-2.02%-1.69%200910-20.43%-3.05%-1.92%20229-19.55%-10.54%-9.24%20048-19.20%-2.49%0.24%200012-19.10%-7.32%-0.52%20226-18.80%-8.91%-8.25%20113-18.53%-0.45%0.01%201812-18.31%-8.65%-8.79%200810-18.21%-15.47%-16.52%20053-18.04%-1.75%-1.83%Average-25.30%-7.96%-4.81%Median-22.40%-8.23%-5.17%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)In the last 25 years, NVDA has had 24 20%-plus monthly declines. It's fallen by almost 50% in a single month.It's fallen as much as 40% in a month while the S&P and Nasdaq were flat!If you can't tolerate such volatility and harness it to buy more when sentiment is at its worst, you will miss out on gains like these.10% Best Monthly ReturnsNvidiaNasdaqS&P 500YearMonthReturnReturnReturn2003582.62%8.52%5.48%2000272.68%19.02%-1.57%2001157.56%10.15%4.45%19991156.50%11.79%1.74%20011056.02%16.98%1.30%2011155.32%2.83%2.33%2001345.28%-17.49%-5.60%20021143.95%12.91%6.17%20091243.03%5.20%1.91%1999839.75%5.47%-0.52%20021039.02%18.48%8.23%2017538.54%3.90%1.41%2023536.34%7.88%0.46%19991235.56%24.32%5.63%2023133.69%10.64%6.29%2000832.29%13.63%6.60%20041132.20%6.02%4.45%2000332.01%2.58%9.69%2016531.83%4.37%1.70%2006831.48%4.77%2.18%20161129.76%0.44%3.68%2024228.58%5.28%5.22%2001428.31%17.88%7.04%2000528.05%-12.27%-1.57%20211127.81%2.00%-0.80%20011127.48%16.96%7.80%2018127.03%8.76%5.64%2024526.89%6.15%5.06%2005226.48%-0.48%2.09%2020826.00%10.94%6.98%20221125.41%5.54%5.56%Average38.63%7.52%3.52%Median32.29%6.15%4.45%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)NVDA's 10% best months are a median 32% gain, with returns as strong as 82% in a single month.Can you see the benefits of rebalancing in real time during bear markets using managed futures and limit orders?The 40% monthly crashes are what create the 82% monthly rallies. If your optimal NVDA allocation is 5% and falls to 40%, you can buy with limits and keep it at 5% the entire time. And so when that face-ripping rally comes around, when NVDA overshoots to the bottom, you end up with maximum benefit.Then, at annual rebalancing time, you can harvest those excess returns, including bubble excess valuations, to buy high-yield blue chips to compound income even faster.DKThis is why I am so bullish on NVDA. Not just for the growth, I don't care about growth. I care about total returns because income tracks total returns due to annual rebalancing.By harvesting the yield generated by NVDA's extreme volatility, long-term NVDA investors can maximize long-term inflation-adjusted income.Portfolio VisualizerNVDA's 5% worst months are 30% monthly declines, 3X worse than the S&P's 10% worst 5% of months, and 2X worse than the Nasdaq's 15% worst monthly returns.NVDA has historically captured 329% of the S&P's upside in exchange for 183% of its downside when stocks fall.It delivered safe 26% withdrawal rates, though no investor would ever be 100% NVDA as a retirement plan.Managed Futures = KMLM (since Jan 2021) (Portfolio Visualizer)By combining NVDA with managed futures, you can adjust its volatility to what you can emotionally and financially stand.KMLM: 5 Reasons You Might Want To Buy This 8.2% Yielding ETFFor example, a 50% NVDA and 50% KMLM stock bucket captured 189% of the S&P's upside with 22% of its downside.25% NVDA and 75% KMLM captured the market, 91% of the S&P upside, with a 26% downside.That means since Jan 2021, a 75% KMLM and 25% NVDA combo went up 9% when the S&P was up 10% and up 2.6% when the market was down 10%.CTA: 5 Reasons I Added This 7.6% Yielding ETF To My PortfolioSince April 2022 (Portfolio Visualizer)This is the key to emotional and financial risk management. I'm not trying to time whether NVDA will soar or crash. No one can predict that.Trust Asset Allocation, Not Market Timing, To Control VolatilityPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNVDA has risks, including regulatory/antitrust risks, R&D efficiency risks, and over 1,000 other risks.S&PS&P LT Risk Management ScoreRating0% to 9%Very Poor10% to 19%Poor20% to 29%Suboptimal30% to 59%Acceptable60% to 69%Good70% to 79%Very Good80+%ExceptionalNVDA64.80%Global Percentile88.37%Click to enlarge(Source: S&P)Bottom Line: Nvidia Is A Reasonable Buy Going Into Earnings And One Of The Top Return Potentials For The Rest Of The YearLet me be clear. I never make forecasts. I look at consensus fundamentals on quality companies and then calculate historically justified fundamental total return potentials.NVDA's year-end fair value is $147, and if it beats and raises as expected in this year's final two earnings, that would likely rise to $175 to $195.NVDA has been tracking its fair value for about 18 months, ever since the AI explosion sent its fundamentals soaring at record rates.Does that mean NVDA will be $200 by year-end? As we've seen many times this year, market sentiment is fickle.NVDA has soared as much as 50% in one month, crashed 25% weekly, and soared 45% in the last few days.But it keeps returning to historical fair value, 40.14X earnings, each time, as it has for the last decade.It's critical to size your financial and emotional risk with NVDA properly. This stock is the quintessential high-volatility hyper-growth blue chip.The downside volatility for the unprepared investor can be soul crushing. The volatility to the upside, created by the extreme crashes, is mind blowing.But leave the speculation to the traders. Don't attempt to time NVDA. If you like the company, including its visionary CEO, who says he wants to keep innovating, buy at a reasonable price ($132.83 fair value or lower) and hold on.Once my annual asset allocation is set, I manage my NVDA risk by rebalancing NVDA on a fixed schedule, using trailing stops.What You Need To Know About Protecting Your Portfolio From Recession And Bear MarketsThe report includes a section on trailing stops, which I use when selling stocks during annual rebalancing.I'm targeting an 11% max overweight on NVDA this year because this is the lowest-risk year for NVDA.That's because TSM's ramp is running through 2025 (possibly into 2026), and TSM management has confirmed that NVDA will likely be capacity-constrained by the end of 2025.That means NVDA's potential for up to $265 billion in revenue capacity (if there is a demand) could support the $225 to $235 billion that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect.Given that the market is 12-month forward-looking, the risk of an air gap in demand (sudden decrease in orders and collapse of margins) is very low for all of 2024.Investors will start looking to 2026 in 2025, which means more significant risks of a sustained 40% to 60% bear market should an air gap develop.I'll adjust the target allocation to 7.5% to 9.1% next year, depending on the economy's performance, based on my portfolio's algo-driven risk management rules, which are optimized for my family's needs at any time.I'm not telling you what allocation to use for NVDA (if any). I'm using myself as an example.I share my limit buys, reasoning, and the best available data from all 62 analysts.But the bottom line? With high confidence, I'm riding into NVDA earnings with a record number of shares. Jensen fans will be impressed with the following:My NVDA Earnings Expectations$30 to $50 billion buybackPossibly a doubling of the dividend.12.5% to 20% beat and raise.5% to 15% pop (options market pricing in 8.7% one-day swing).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}