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2022-10-15

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Disney(DIS)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983744511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9980737463,"gmtCreate":1665810861452,"gmtModify":1676537668619,"author":{"id":"4120298778953912","authorId":"4120298778953912","name":"Charmediva","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a58f6f1d56bb88bf4a437c0318259545","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4120298778953912","authorIdStr":"4120298778953912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980737463","repostId":"2275632549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2275632549","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665787534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2275632549?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-15 06:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Down 50% From Its High. Time to Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275632549","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The major market indexes fell back to earth Friday, approaching their 2022 lows again.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li>Markets fell sharply on Friday, sending the Nasdaq Composite to a new closing low for 2022.</li><li>Tesla shares have fallen by a third in less than a month.</li><li>Tesla&#39;s earnings report next week should give investors some vital information about its fundamental business prospects.</li></ul><p>Investors were surprised by the big rally in the stock market on Thursday, but Friday brought another dose of reality and disappointment. After having posted monumental gains despite high readings on inflation, the <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> closed at its worst level of the year, and the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> and <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b> gave up most of their advances from earlier in the week.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21aa89d7e02f24dc3037cff50f5058b4\" tg-width=\"1211\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.</span></p><p>One of the biggest stock stories of the past several years has been <b>Tesla</b>. The electric vehicle (EV) pioneer has given investors huge gains since 2019, and even briefly became a trillion-dollar company as it built out its production capacity in an effort to meet the strong customer demand for its EVs.</p><p>For much of 2022, Tesla stock managed to avoid the worst impacts of the Nasdaq bear market, holding up reasonably well even as other large-cap players in the index fell more sharply. However, Tesla shares have finally shown their vulnerability: They&#39;ve lost about a third of their value in less than a month. Tesla closed Friday&#39;s session at less than half its closing high back on Nov. 4, 2021, leading some investors to wonder whether now might finally be the time to take a closer look at the EV stock.</p><h2>A lot is happening with Tesla</h2><p>Several items hit Tesla newsfeeds on Friday. One involved the company&#39;s new Gigafactory facility in Germany --  a news report suggested that due to problems with a production process, the company might not be able to begin to mass-produce electric battery cells there until 2024. Tesla has high hopes for the facility, and as it ramps up, its output could eventually reach 500,000 vehicles annually. But for the site to reach peak efficiency, it will be useful if it has the capacity to produce all of its key components instead of relying on other Gigafactories around the world -- especially as Tesla aims to simplify a supply chain and distribution system that&#39;s already showing signs of strain.</p><p>Some investors also anticipate that proposed changes to the accounting rules for cryptocurrency holdings could have an adverse impact on Tesla. The U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board recently discussed requiring businesses that hold digital assets to account for them at fair value on their balance sheets. Although Tesla sold off a substantial portion of its crypto holdings earlier this year, it&#39;s possible that the new accounting requirements (if adopted) would create more volatility in the automaker&#39;s quarterly earnings, distracting from the core results of its EV business. Admittedly, Tesla&#39;s crypto holdings aren&#39;t extensive enough to make any significant difference to its balance sheet at this point, but CEO Elon Musk has enough of a reputation for talking about digital assets that some investors see his fortunes as being tied to those of cryptocurrencies from time to time.</p><h2>What to expect from Tesla next week</h2><p>Investors will get the latest financial results from Tesla next week, and one question they&#39;ll be asking is what impact, if any, the disparity between its third-quarter delivery and production totals will have on its income statement. Tesla has cited logistical issues to explain why its production numbers met targets, but its delivery figures fell short. If those issues prove costly enough to substantially affect the company&#39;s profits -- even temporarily -- it could explain the stock&#39;s recent declines.</p><p>It&#39;s new for some shareholders to see Tesla prove vulnerable to market downturns. In the end, though, what matters is whether Tesla&#39;s business can live up to the high expectations investors have for it. There are bound to be some speed bumps along the way, but those who believe in Tesla&#39;s long-term vision will likely be pleased to have a chance to buy shares at prices 50% cheaper than they were less than a year ago.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Down 50% From Its High. Time to Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Down 50% From Its High. Time to Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-15 06:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/14/tesla-stock-is-down-50-from-its-high-time-to-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSMarkets fell sharply on Friday, sending the Nasdaq Composite to a new closing low for 2022.Tesla shares have fallen by a third in less than a month.Tesla's earnings report next week should ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/14/tesla-stock-is-down-50-from-its-high-time-to-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/14/tesla-stock-is-down-50-from-its-high-time-to-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2275632549","content_text":"KEY POINTSMarkets fell sharply on Friday, sending the Nasdaq Composite to a new closing low for 2022.Tesla shares have fallen by a third in less than a month.Tesla's earnings report next week should give investors some vital information about its fundamental business prospects.Investors were surprised by the big rally in the stock market on Thursday, but Friday brought another dose of reality and disappointment. After having posted monumental gains despite high readings on inflation, the Nasdaq Composite closed at its worst level of the year, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up most of their advances from earlier in the week.DATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.One of the biggest stock stories of the past several years has been Tesla. The electric vehicle (EV) pioneer has given investors huge gains since 2019, and even briefly became a trillion-dollar company as it built out its production capacity in an effort to meet the strong customer demand for its EVs.For much of 2022, Tesla stock managed to avoid the worst impacts of the Nasdaq bear market, holding up reasonably well even as other large-cap players in the index fell more sharply. However, Tesla shares have finally shown their vulnerability: They've lost about a third of their value in less than a month. Tesla closed Friday's session at less than half its closing high back on Nov. 4, 2021, leading some investors to wonder whether now might finally be the time to take a closer look at the EV stock.A lot is happening with TeslaSeveral items hit Tesla newsfeeds on Friday. One involved the company's new Gigafactory facility in Germany --  a news report suggested that due to problems with a production process, the company might not be able to begin to mass-produce electric battery cells there until 2024. Tesla has high hopes for the facility, and as it ramps up, its output could eventually reach 500,000 vehicles annually. But for the site to reach peak efficiency, it will be useful if it has the capacity to produce all of its key components instead of relying on other Gigafactories around the world -- especially as Tesla aims to simplify a supply chain and distribution system that's already showing signs of strain.Some investors also anticipate that proposed changes to the accounting rules for cryptocurrency holdings could have an adverse impact on Tesla. The U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board recently discussed requiring businesses that hold digital assets to account for them at fair value on their balance sheets. Although Tesla sold off a substantial portion of its crypto holdings earlier this year, it's possible that the new accounting requirements (if adopted) would create more volatility in the automaker's quarterly earnings, distracting from the core results of its EV business. Admittedly, Tesla's crypto holdings aren't extensive enough to make any significant difference to its balance sheet at this point, but CEO Elon Musk has enough of a reputation for talking about digital assets that some investors see his fortunes as being tied to those of cryptocurrencies from time to time.What to expect from Tesla next weekInvestors will get the latest financial results from Tesla next week, and one question they'll be asking is what impact, if any, the disparity between its third-quarter delivery and production totals will have on its income statement. Tesla has cited logistical issues to explain why its production numbers met targets, but its delivery figures fell short. If those issues prove costly enough to substantially affect the company's profits -- even temporarily -- it could explain the stock's recent declines.It's new for some shareholders to see Tesla prove vulnerable to market downturns. In the end, though, what matters is whether Tesla's business can live up to the high expectations investors have for it. There are bound to be some speed bumps along the way, but those who believe in Tesla's long-term vision will likely be pleased to have a chance to buy shares at prices 50% cheaper than they were less than a year ago.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989326479,"gmtCreate":1665916680291,"gmtModify":1676537679171,"author":{"id":"4120298778953912","authorId":"4120298778953912","name":"Charmediva","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a58f6f1d56bb88bf4a437c0318259545","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4120298778953912","authorIdStr":"4120298778953912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989326479","repostId":"2275956132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2275956132","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665880140,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2275956132?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-16 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Earnings Are Coming, but Do Record Deliveries Mask a Demand Problem?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2275956132","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Analysts will be particularly concerned about demand trends in China when Tesla reports earnings Oct. 19Tesla is due to report results for its third quarter on Oct. 19. TESLATesla Inc.’s record deliveries in the third quarter weren’t enough to satisfy Wall Street. Will the company’s full explanation play any better?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Analysts will be particularly concerned about demand trends in China when Tesla reports earnings Oct. 19</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e54dbc03597e8afcf8969752bb25b4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"438\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Tesla is due to report results for its third quarter on Oct. 19. TESLA</span></p><p>Tesla Inc.’s record deliveries in the third quarter weren’t enough to satisfy Wall Street. Will the company’s full explanation play any better?</p><p>The electric-car company posts production and delivery numbers ahead of its formal earnings report, giving investors weeks to extrapolate trends based on limited information. This time, debate has focused on the short bit of commentary that Tesla provided as it posted 343,830 deliveries for the third quarter, below the 371,000 that analysts tracked by FactSet had been expecting, and also below the 365,923 vehicles that the company said it produced in the period.</p><p>Tesla explained in a press release that delivery volumes have been heavily weighted to the end of quarters “due to regional batch building of cars,” but that as production volumes have increased, it’s become “increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks.” The company has moved to “a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter.”</p><p>Tesla’s stock fell 8.6% in the first trading session after the deliveries were announced.</p><p>While Tesla seemed to peg its problems to delivery logistics, some analysts weren’t sure that was the only challenge facing the Elon Musk-led company these days.</p><p>“A top concern right now is demand in China as wait times seem to be shrinking,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak. The question is whether the wait-time issue is a “blip” or indicative of “a bigger change among consumers.”</p><p>Spak added that there is “some overall concern about demand (not just China)” headed into Tesla’s report.</p><p>Guggenheim’s Ali Faghri also wrote of potential demand issues in China, even though he thought the U.S. outlook remained strong.</p><p>“Our conclusion is that the sharp moderation in China wait times is at least partially attributable to weaker demand amid increasing competition from lower priced domestic OEMs [original equipment manufacturers],” he said in a note to clients.</p><p>“While wait times in the U.S. and Europe remain healthy, we see potential similarities between Europe and China (macro pressures, increasing competition, ramping supply),” he continued. “Overall, we see risk that TSLA is reaching demand saturation in its most important market globally (China, with tail risk in Europe).”</p><p>Such a dynamic could weigh on the company’s ability to hit its delivery goals and “potentially pressure the stock’s premium valuation as the story shifts from supply-constrained (high multiple) to demand-constrained (lower multiple),” Faghri added.</p><p>Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan highlighted a number of puts and takes in thinking about broader demand for Tesla vehicles heading into next year.</p><p>“While IRA [the Inflation Recovery Act] will help in 2023, the economy and interest rates likely will not, particularly in Europe where an energy crisis looms,” he wrote. “If consumers are watching costs, a $60K vehicle purchase could get deferred.”</p><p>UBS analyst Patrick Hummel also chimed in that “[t]he debate about EVs has shifted to the demand side, after delivery times have come down significantly,” but he saw opportunity for Tesla in that dynamic.</p><p>“We think Tesla is best positioned to use pricing as the tool to fill its factories,” he wrote, noting that price reductions could help Tesla gain share over electric-vehicle companies and further compete against sellers of gas-powered cars.</p><p>Tesla is due to post its third-quarter results Oct. 19 after the closing bell.</p><h2>What to expect</h2><p><b>Revenue:</b> Analysts expect Tesla to report $22.14 billion in revenue, up from $13.76 billion a year prior.</p><p>According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average estimate calls for $22.63 billion in revenue.</p><p><b>Earnings:</b> The FactSet consensus calls for $1.01 a share in September-quarter adjusted earnings, up from 62 cents a share in the year-prior quarter. Those polled by Estimize are looking for $1.13 in adjusted earnings per share on average.</p><p><b>Stock movement:</b> Tesla shares have gained following three of the company’s last five earnings reports. They logged a 9.8% rally in the session following the company’s most recent report.</p><p>Tesla’s stock is off 37% so far this year, as the S&amp;P 500 has fallen 23%.</p><p>Of the 42 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Tesla’s stock, 27 have buy ratings, 11 have hold ratings, and four have sell ratings, with an average price target of $305.58.</p><h2>What else to watch for</h2><p>Production-related commentary will be worth monitoring given all the moving parts at Tesla.</p><p>“While management cited logistics issues that slowed end-of-quarter deliveries, we think this reflects the challenges ramping up production at its two new factories as well as restarting the Shanghai plant after the COVID-19 lockdowns during the second quarter,” wrote Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein, though he saw “no long-term issues that would affect production.”</p><p>Oppenheimer’s Colin Rusch was similarly interested in a capacity rundown.</p><p>“We are expecting a substantial update on rate of TSLA’s capacity ramp in incremental capacity in Shanghai along with its Berlin and Austin facilities on the company’s earnings call,” he wrote. “With production underway in Berlin and Austin, we expect investors to be focused on the pace of ramp in the face of supply chain headwinds.”</p><p>As always, investors will be watching for any forward-looking commentary around deliveries or demand trends more generally.</p><p>“We believe TSLA will come out and reiterate their goal of around 50% growth,” RBC’s Spak wrote. “However, we do see some potential risk to 4Q22 deliveries in the U.S. as a subset of consumers may choose to delay delivery until 2023 to take advantage of IRA EV tax credits,” referring to electric vehicle credits from the Inflation Recovery Act.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Earnings Are Coming, but Do Record Deliveries Mask a Demand Problem?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Earnings Are Coming, but Do Record Deliveries Mask a Demand Problem?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-16 08:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-earnings-are-coming-but-do-record-deliveries-mask-a-demand-problem-11665767452?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Analysts will be particularly concerned about demand trends in China when Tesla reports earnings Oct. 19Tesla is due to report results for its third quarter on Oct. 19. TESLATesla Inc.’s record ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-earnings-are-coming-but-do-record-deliveries-mask-a-demand-problem-11665767452?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-earnings-are-coming-but-do-record-deliveries-mask-a-demand-problem-11665767452?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2275956132","content_text":"Analysts will be particularly concerned about demand trends in China when Tesla reports earnings Oct. 19Tesla is due to report results for its third quarter on Oct. 19. TESLATesla Inc.’s record deliveries in the third quarter weren’t enough to satisfy Wall Street. Will the company’s full explanation play any better?The electric-car company posts production and delivery numbers ahead of its formal earnings report, giving investors weeks to extrapolate trends based on limited information. This time, debate has focused on the short bit of commentary that Tesla provided as it posted 343,830 deliveries for the third quarter, below the 371,000 that analysts tracked by FactSet had been expecting, and also below the 365,923 vehicles that the company said it produced in the period.Tesla explained in a press release that delivery volumes have been heavily weighted to the end of quarters “due to regional batch building of cars,” but that as production volumes have increased, it’s become “increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks.” The company has moved to “a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter.”Tesla’s stock fell 8.6% in the first trading session after the deliveries were announced.While Tesla seemed to peg its problems to delivery logistics, some analysts weren’t sure that was the only challenge facing the Elon Musk-led company these days.“A top concern right now is demand in China as wait times seem to be shrinking,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak. The question is whether the wait-time issue is a “blip” or indicative of “a bigger change among consumers.”Spak added that there is “some overall concern about demand (not just China)” headed into Tesla’s report.Guggenheim’s Ali Faghri also wrote of potential demand issues in China, even though he thought the U.S. outlook remained strong.“Our conclusion is that the sharp moderation in China wait times is at least partially attributable to weaker demand amid increasing competition from lower priced domestic OEMs [original equipment manufacturers],” he said in a note to clients.“While wait times in the U.S. and Europe remain healthy, we see potential similarities between Europe and China (macro pressures, increasing competition, ramping supply),” he continued. “Overall, we see risk that TSLA is reaching demand saturation in its most important market globally (China, with tail risk in Europe).”Such a dynamic could weigh on the company’s ability to hit its delivery goals and “potentially pressure the stock’s premium valuation as the story shifts from supply-constrained (high multiple) to demand-constrained (lower multiple),” Faghri added.Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan highlighted a number of puts and takes in thinking about broader demand for Tesla vehicles heading into next year.“While IRA [the Inflation Recovery Act] will help in 2023, the economy and interest rates likely will not, particularly in Europe where an energy crisis looms,” he wrote. “If consumers are watching costs, a $60K vehicle purchase could get deferred.”UBS analyst Patrick Hummel also chimed in that “[t]he debate about EVs has shifted to the demand side, after delivery times have come down significantly,” but he saw opportunity for Tesla in that dynamic.“We think Tesla is best positioned to use pricing as the tool to fill its factories,” he wrote, noting that price reductions could help Tesla gain share over electric-vehicle companies and further compete against sellers of gas-powered cars.Tesla is due to post its third-quarter results Oct. 19 after the closing bell.What to expectRevenue: Analysts expect Tesla to report $22.14 billion in revenue, up from $13.76 billion a year prior.According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average estimate calls for $22.63 billion in revenue.Earnings: The FactSet consensus calls for $1.01 a share in September-quarter adjusted earnings, up from 62 cents a share in the year-prior quarter. Those polled by Estimize are looking for $1.13 in adjusted earnings per share on average.Stock movement: Tesla shares have gained following three of the company’s last five earnings reports. They logged a 9.8% rally in the session following the company’s most recent report.Tesla’s stock is off 37% so far this year, as the S&P 500 has fallen 23%.Of the 42 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Tesla’s stock, 27 have buy ratings, 11 have hold ratings, and four have sell ratings, with an average price target of $305.58.What else to watch forProduction-related commentary will be worth monitoring given all the moving parts at Tesla.“While management cited logistics issues that slowed end-of-quarter deliveries, we think this reflects the challenges ramping up production at its two new factories as well as restarting the Shanghai plant after the COVID-19 lockdowns during the second quarter,” wrote Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein, though he saw “no long-term issues that would affect production.”Oppenheimer’s Colin Rusch was similarly interested in a capacity rundown.“We are expecting a substantial update on rate of TSLA’s capacity ramp in incremental capacity in Shanghai along with its Berlin and Austin facilities on the company’s earnings call,” he wrote. “With production underway in Berlin and Austin, we expect investors to be focused on the pace of ramp in the face of supply chain headwinds.”As always, investors will be watching for any forward-looking commentary around deliveries or demand trends more generally.“We believe TSLA will come out and reiterate their goal of around 50% growth,” RBC’s Spak wrote. “However, we do see some potential risk to 4Q22 deliveries in the U.S. as a subset of consumers may choose to delay delivery until 2023 to take advantage of IRA EV tax credits,” referring to electric vehicle credits from the Inflation Recovery Act.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961037720,"gmtCreate":1668783632060,"gmtModify":1676538113463,"author":{"id":"4120298778953912","authorId":"4120298778953912","name":"Charmediva","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a58f6f1d56bb88bf4a437c0318259545","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4120298778953912","authorIdStr":"4120298778953912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961037720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984216098,"gmtCreate":1667643754514,"gmtModify":1676537948178,"author":{"id":"4120298778953912","authorId":"4120298778953912","name":"Charmediva","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a58f6f1d56bb88bf4a437c0318259545","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4120298778953912","authorIdStr":"4120298778953912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984216098","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984173753,"gmtCreate":1667577020373,"gmtModify":1676537940476,"author":{"id":"4120298778953912","authorId":"4120298778953912","name":"Charmediva","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a58f6f1d56bb88bf4a437c0318259545","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4120298778953912","authorIdStr":"4120298778953912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Bullishb","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Bullishb","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Bullishb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984173753","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983529853,"gmtCreate":1666278884372,"gmtModify":1676537734835,"author":{"id":"4120298778953912","authorId":"4120298778953912","name":"Charmediva","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a58f6f1d56bb88bf4a437c0318259545","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4120298778953912","authorIdStr":"4120298778953912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983529853","repostId":"1155410995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155410995","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666276602,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155410995?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-20 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Elon Musk Pumps Tesla Stock With Ridiculous $4 Trillion Target. Is a Dump Coming Next?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155410995","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Another Tesla Inc. earnings call, and another fanciful Elon Musk prediction that likely encouraged yet another open file at the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.The chief executive of T","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d877550887f311bbda3ac4c5d79de16c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Another Tesla Inc. earnings call, and another fanciful Elon Musk prediction that likely encouraged yet another open file at the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.</p><p>The chief executive of Tesla Inc. told investors Wednesday that he believes the valuation of the electric-car maker will exceed the combined market capitalization of the two most valuable companies in the world: Apple Inc. and Saudi Arabian Oil Co.</p><p>“I am of the opinion that we can far exceed Apple’s current market cap,” Musk said. “In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined.”</p><p>Based on Wednesday’s closing prices, the combined market capitalization of those two companies is about $4.4 trillion U.S. dollars. But at least he added a caveat — “That doesn’t mean it will happen or that it will be easy, in fact it will be very difficult, require a lot of work, very creative new products, expansion and always good luck.”</p><p>This type of outrageous prediction is not new for Musk. He already predicted that Tesla would be worth as much as Apple, and its market cap now is roughly the same size as Apple’s was then, though his explanation for why Tesla would spike to that level was way off.</p><p>The situation Musk is in right now, though, is new. As the soap opera that has erupted from his deal to buy Twitter Inc. draws to a close, he is believed to need somewhere between $5 billion and $8 billion to finish off that deal, as our colleagues at Barron’s recently reported, and his only real avenue to that kind of cash is to sell Tesla stock.</p><p>Musk was precluded from selling shares before Tesla’s earnings report due to SEC rules, so what better way to try and pump Tesla’s stock before that blackout ended than to make some far-out predictions on the company’s earnings call?</p><p>A $4 trillion-plus price target wasn’t the only eye-opening claim Musk made in Wednesday’s call. He also told investors that he expected Tesla to perform the first stock buyback in its corporate history next year, and a large one at that: $5 billion to $10 billion.</p><p>“Even in a downside scenario next year, given next year is very difficult, we still have the ability to do a $5 [billion] to $10 billion buyback. This is obviously pending board review and approval,” he said. “So it’s likely that we will do some meaningful buyback.”</p><p>It is very odd to announce a share repurchase plan before it is approved and officially put in place by a board of directors, though sharing the news early is not automatically a violation of securities laws, said Stephen Diamond, an associate professor at Santa Clara University School of Law.</p><p>“Best practices would suggest waiting until you have your ducks in a row before making such an announcement, but I doubt it creates any obvious legal problems,” he said.</p><p>He added that the Tesla board is likely seeking approval from its auditors and legal counsel for the share repurchase, which would be why it isn’t approved yet.</p><p>“There is an accounting test under Delaware law that the company must meet in order to buy back shares,” Diamond said in an email. “Generally, it can only buy back shares if there is a ‘surplus’ available. To assess that would require support from their internal finance team to the board and likely as well outside opinions from their auditors and legal counsel.”</p><p>While early disclosure of buyback plans would not register alarms at the SEC office automatically, these types of pronouncements from Musk specifically will perk up some ears at the regulator’s offices. Musk has already faced recriminations from the agency for earlier statements, and been targeted for failing to live up to the settlement he agreed to in that case. Musk is also reportedly actively being investigated for his behavior as he moved to acquire Twitter, which Twitter seemed to confirm in a legal filing earlier this month.</p><p>On the call, Musk would only say that he is “excited about the Twitter situation,” while admitting that “myself and the other investors are obviously overpaying for it right now.”</p><p>Tesla officials did not respond to a request for comment or answer a question about whether Musk does need to sell more Tesla shares to complete the Twitter deal.</p><p>The question for Tesla investors, though, is whether they have overpaid for Tesla stock before another round of stock sales from Musk, who has already offloaded billions in shares in the past year, which reportedly resulted in yet another SEC inquiry. On Wednesday, though, shares fell more than 6% in after-hours trading despite the chief executive’s boosterism, which seemed to be overshadowed by a revenue miss and trimmed forecast.</p><p>Perhaps investors are finally seeing through Musk’s earnings-call bloviating that boosted the value of Tesla’s shares in the past. But if Musk sells Tesla shares in the coming days after trying to talk up the company’s value, it won’t be the investors who knock on his door, it might be the SEC yet again.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Elon Musk Pumps Tesla Stock With Ridiculous $4 Trillion Target. Is a Dump Coming Next?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk Pumps Tesla Stock With Ridiculous $4 Trillion Target. Is a Dump Coming Next?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-20 22:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-pumps-tesla-stock-with-ridiculous-4-trillion-target-is-a-dump-coming-next-11666231310><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Another Tesla Inc. earnings call, and another fanciful Elon Musk prediction that likely encouraged yet another open file at the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.The chief executive of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-pumps-tesla-stock-with-ridiculous-4-trillion-target-is-a-dump-coming-next-11666231310\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-pumps-tesla-stock-with-ridiculous-4-trillion-target-is-a-dump-coming-next-11666231310","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155410995","content_text":"Another Tesla Inc. earnings call, and another fanciful Elon Musk prediction that likely encouraged yet another open file at the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.The chief executive of Tesla Inc. told investors Wednesday that he believes the valuation of the electric-car maker will exceed the combined market capitalization of the two most valuable companies in the world: Apple Inc. and Saudi Arabian Oil Co.“I am of the opinion that we can far exceed Apple’s current market cap,” Musk said. “In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined.”Based on Wednesday’s closing prices, the combined market capitalization of those two companies is about $4.4 trillion U.S. dollars. But at least he added a caveat — “That doesn’t mean it will happen or that it will be easy, in fact it will be very difficult, require a lot of work, very creative new products, expansion and always good luck.”This type of outrageous prediction is not new for Musk. He already predicted that Tesla would be worth as much as Apple, and its market cap now is roughly the same size as Apple’s was then, though his explanation for why Tesla would spike to that level was way off.The situation Musk is in right now, though, is new. As the soap opera that has erupted from his deal to buy Twitter Inc. draws to a close, he is believed to need somewhere between $5 billion and $8 billion to finish off that deal, as our colleagues at Barron’s recently reported, and his only real avenue to that kind of cash is to sell Tesla stock.Musk was precluded from selling shares before Tesla’s earnings report due to SEC rules, so what better way to try and pump Tesla’s stock before that blackout ended than to make some far-out predictions on the company’s earnings call?A $4 trillion-plus price target wasn’t the only eye-opening claim Musk made in Wednesday’s call. He also told investors that he expected Tesla to perform the first stock buyback in its corporate history next year, and a large one at that: $5 billion to $10 billion.“Even in a downside scenario next year, given next year is very difficult, we still have the ability to do a $5 [billion] to $10 billion buyback. This is obviously pending board review and approval,” he said. “So it’s likely that we will do some meaningful buyback.”It is very odd to announce a share repurchase plan before it is approved and officially put in place by a board of directors, though sharing the news early is not automatically a violation of securities laws, said Stephen Diamond, an associate professor at Santa Clara University School of Law.“Best practices would suggest waiting until you have your ducks in a row before making such an announcement, but I doubt it creates any obvious legal problems,” he said.He added that the Tesla board is likely seeking approval from its auditors and legal counsel for the share repurchase, which would be why it isn’t approved yet.“There is an accounting test under Delaware law that the company must meet in order to buy back shares,” Diamond said in an email. “Generally, it can only buy back shares if there is a ‘surplus’ available. To assess that would require support from their internal finance team to the board and likely as well outside opinions from their auditors and legal counsel.”While early disclosure of buyback plans would not register alarms at the SEC office automatically, these types of pronouncements from Musk specifically will perk up some ears at the regulator’s offices. Musk has already faced recriminations from the agency for earlier statements, and been targeted for failing to live up to the settlement he agreed to in that case. Musk is also reportedly actively being investigated for his behavior as he moved to acquire Twitter, which Twitter seemed to confirm in a legal filing earlier this month.On the call, Musk would only say that he is “excited about the Twitter situation,” while admitting that “myself and the other investors are obviously overpaying for it right now.”Tesla officials did not respond to a request for comment or answer a question about whether Musk does need to sell more Tesla shares to complete the Twitter deal.The question for Tesla investors, though, is whether they have overpaid for Tesla stock before another round of stock sales from Musk, who has already offloaded billions in shares in the past year, which reportedly resulted in yet another SEC inquiry. On Wednesday, though, shares fell more than 6% in after-hours trading despite the chief executive’s boosterism, which seemed to be overshadowed by a revenue miss and trimmed forecast.Perhaps investors are finally seeing through Musk’s earnings-call bloviating that boosted the value of Tesla’s shares in the past. But if Musk sells Tesla shares in the coming days after trying to talk up the company’s value, it won’t be the investors who knock on his door, it might be the SEC yet again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980396568,"gmtCreate":1665644183655,"gmtModify":1676537641712,"author":{"id":"4120298778953912","authorId":"4120298778953912","name":"Charmediva","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a58f6f1d56bb88bf4a437c0318259545","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4120298778953912","authorIdStr":"4120298778953912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980396568","repostId":"2274655878","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274655878","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665644164,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274655878?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-13 14:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September CPI: It's Sink Or Swim For Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274655878","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe latest and greatest monthly inflation report is due out at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on Thursd","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>The latest and greatest monthly inflation report is due out at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on Thursday, October 13th.</li><li>Stocks are already jittery, and one analyst has predicted that a bad report would send stocks tumbling by as much as 5%.</li><li>Handicapping where US September CPI is likely to come in, as well as the path of inflation going forward.</li><li>My September CPI forecast– bad but hopefully not awful, due to tightening financial conditions.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a33360c9f3e8c513c78d7c99d5608eb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>scanrail</span></p><p>Before 2020, inflation reports were scarcely a sideshow in the parade of economic reports that come out each month. Changes in prices had been low and predictable for decades, so no one cared. But after 2+ years of soaring inflation, off-and-on shortages of goods, and soaring inflation–CPIis the most important reading for the markets in any given month. The latest installment is due out on Thursday, October 13th at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. The stakes are high. One JPMorgan analyst has called for a drop of as much as 5% in the immediate aftermath of another hot inflation report, while the VIX is pointing to a potential move of a bit less than 3% by the end of the week. Largely due to runaway inflation over the last year, stocks have plunged in 2022, unwinding all of the 2021 bull market gains and threatening to unwind 2020&#39;s gains as well.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb6d337417195dbaf9c5792c265e60ee\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Will Inflation Ever Slow Down?</h2><p>Likely not for the September reading–at least to nowhere near the Fed&#39;s target of 2% annual core inflation.</p><p><i>Bloomberg</i> polled a group of economists, and the expectation is for headline inflation to come in at 0.2%, while core inflation comes in at 0.4%. Core inflation at 0.4% per month is about 5% annualized, which is still more than double the Fed&#39;s target. They clearly have work to do in raising rates, which will put stock prices under pressure. As the Fed raises interest rates, the question on the mind of every institutional investor is when they&#39;ll stop, because that tells them what a fair price to pay for stocks is.</p><p>No one knows for sure the path of inflation and rates, but we can make some educated guesses. In previous articles, we handicapped this using publicly available econometric models and came up with a likely interest rate of about 4 to 4.5% and relentless quantitative tightening. The market has now finally priced this in. The question now is whether that will work, or whether the Fed will be forced to hike even more in the face of stubborn inflation to stop the party. In this case, the necessary adjustments are big enough that unemployment likely will not stay anywhere near historical lows, which in turn means that corporate profits won&#39;t stay at all-time highs. The Fed can&#39;t throw in the towel here either and just let inflation be 10% per year or more forever. Doing so would eventually cause America to lose its greatest privilege – having the world&#39;s reserve currency and the increased standard of living that comes with it.</p><h2>Tighter Financial Conditions Are Helping</h2><p>The main way the Fed clamps down on inflation is by tightening financial conditions (lower stocks, higher yields, stronger dollar). August CPI, the Fed&#39;s last &#34;report card&#34; was a brutal shock for stocks because it showed the Fed&#39;s efforts were not working. But the main reason why they weren&#39;t working was that the markets had fallen in love with the idea of a Fed pivot from June to mid-August, buying all the stocks they could get, sending bond yields tumbling and the dollar down. But markets are reflexive. With stocks up ~17% in a couple of months from June to August, people surely took the cue to ramp up spending, and the falling dollar directly made imports more expensive, leading to a bad CPI report. All of the money being bet on the Fed pivoting itself made it impossible for the Fed to actually pivot by loosening financial conditions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624e3277f4b225ec25d2bf5d689d404c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Now, this has all been unwound and then some, putting downward pressure on inflation. This might set the conditions for inflation to possibly come in better than expected, or at least not as bad as feared. If this happens, everyone might go out and pour money into stocks again, only to be slapped down by a poor inflation report in a month or two due to rising markets and a falling dollar.</p><h2>But They May Not Be Enough</h2><p>1. The Saudis and OPEC have continued their decades-long tradition of sticking it to the US and Europe, agreeing to an output cut in oil production to try to push prices back over $100 per barrel. Since almost every consumer good has to be transported from where it is manufactured to where it&#39;s bought, this directly feeds into prices. OPEC&#39;s defiance is a clear signal that inflation is not going to come down on its own without the US and Europe securing their own oil/gas production and eventually enough renewable energy to get a &#34;divorce&#34; with OPEC. This will take years, and there&#39;s no easy fix.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26bfda6853f9e6679bc2061e62530d9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>WTI Crude Oil (Investing.com)</span></p><p>2. Labor problems. In the early phase of the pandemic, companies saw their profit margins boom as they were able to raise prices faster than employees could bargain for wage increases. This led to the stupid media trend of the &#34;great resignation&#34; which was really just employees going to where they could earn a market wage. Now we have tons of labor problems, particularly with unions. Unions in particular are going to claw back their relative share of gross profits, and there&#39;s nothing the Fed can do to stop this with the unemployment rate at 3.5%. So we have ongoing negotiations, and threats of strikes in every economic bottleneck there is, whether it&#39;s railroad employees, dockworkers, or airline pilots. And that&#39;s just the people who work. Social Security is going to have its annual CPI adjustment (maybe 9% this year) at year-end which is going to further increase price pressures.</p><p>3. Rent renewals. Asking rents are actually falling month over month, but that&#39;s cold comfort for many renters coming off of long-term leases now at much higher rates than previous. They don&#39;t go into CPI until they&#39;re paid, so this will continually put upward pressure on inflation after the lag from earlier in the pandemic.</p><h2>September CPI Forecast</h2><p>The Cleveland Fed has a good econometric model that I believe is more accurate than surveying a bunch of random economists. They have core CPI at 0.51% month-over-month for September and 0.53% month-over-month looking ahead to October. If these projections are right, these numbers are bad and worse than the market expects, showing that the Fed is nowhere near stopping inflation and that a hard landing is the only way down.</p><p>Another approach I sometimes like is to look at other areas that report CPI earlier in the month than the US. Since global central banks have begun to coordinate policy, hot numbers abroad have generally predicted hot numbers in the US. In September, CPI in Thailand came in better than expected, Taiwan came in worse, and the Philippines came in worse. In Europe, the Netherlands put in an awful report not just because of energy, but also in services inflation. Hungary similarly saw huge increases in the cost of services. These both are indicating that core CPI could potentially be hotter than expected.</p><p>But my best guess is that tighter financial conditions are doing enough to hold these pressures more or less in check enough to keep core CPI at 0.5% month-over-month. This said– I don&#39;t doubt JPMorgan&#39;s nightmare prediction that stocks will fall 5% in a day or two if core CPI comes in at 0.6% month over month. In any case, checking some econometric models and countries that report CPI before the US shows that this inflation report is unlikely to be particularly good.</p><p><i>This article is written by Logan Kane for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September CPI: It's Sink Or Swim For Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember CPI: It's Sink Or Swim For Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-13 14:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546099-september-cpi-it-is-sink-or-swim-for-stocks><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe latest and greatest monthly inflation report is due out at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on Thursday, October 13th.Stocks are already jittery, and one analyst has predicted that a bad report would ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546099-september-cpi-it-is-sink-or-swim-for-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546099-september-cpi-it-is-sink-or-swim-for-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274655878","content_text":"SummaryThe latest and greatest monthly inflation report is due out at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on Thursday, October 13th.Stocks are already jittery, and one analyst has predicted that a bad report would send stocks tumbling by as much as 5%.Handicapping where US September CPI is likely to come in, as well as the path of inflation going forward.My September CPI forecast– bad but hopefully not awful, due to tightening financial conditions.scanrailBefore 2020, inflation reports were scarcely a sideshow in the parade of economic reports that come out each month. Changes in prices had been low and predictable for decades, so no one cared. But after 2+ years of soaring inflation, off-and-on shortages of goods, and soaring inflation–CPIis the most important reading for the markets in any given month. The latest installment is due out on Thursday, October 13th at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. The stakes are high. One JPMorgan analyst has called for a drop of as much as 5% in the immediate aftermath of another hot inflation report, while the VIX is pointing to a potential move of a bit less than 3% by the end of the week. Largely due to runaway inflation over the last year, stocks have plunged in 2022, unwinding all of the 2021 bull market gains and threatening to unwind 2020's gains as well.Data by YChartsWill Inflation Ever Slow Down?Likely not for the September reading–at least to nowhere near the Fed's target of 2% annual core inflation.Bloomberg polled a group of economists, and the expectation is for headline inflation to come in at 0.2%, while core inflation comes in at 0.4%. Core inflation at 0.4% per month is about 5% annualized, which is still more than double the Fed's target. They clearly have work to do in raising rates, which will put stock prices under pressure. As the Fed raises interest rates, the question on the mind of every institutional investor is when they'll stop, because that tells them what a fair price to pay for stocks is.No one knows for sure the path of inflation and rates, but we can make some educated guesses. In previous articles, we handicapped this using publicly available econometric models and came up with a likely interest rate of about 4 to 4.5% and relentless quantitative tightening. The market has now finally priced this in. The question now is whether that will work, or whether the Fed will be forced to hike even more in the face of stubborn inflation to stop the party. In this case, the necessary adjustments are big enough that unemployment likely will not stay anywhere near historical lows, which in turn means that corporate profits won't stay at all-time highs. The Fed can't throw in the towel here either and just let inflation be 10% per year or more forever. Doing so would eventually cause America to lose its greatest privilege – having the world's reserve currency and the increased standard of living that comes with it.Tighter Financial Conditions Are HelpingThe main way the Fed clamps down on inflation is by tightening financial conditions (lower stocks, higher yields, stronger dollar). August CPI, the Fed's last \"report card\" was a brutal shock for stocks because it showed the Fed's efforts were not working. But the main reason why they weren't working was that the markets had fallen in love with the idea of a Fed pivot from June to mid-August, buying all the stocks they could get, sending bond yields tumbling and the dollar down. But markets are reflexive. With stocks up ~17% in a couple of months from June to August, people surely took the cue to ramp up spending, and the falling dollar directly made imports more expensive, leading to a bad CPI report. All of the money being bet on the Fed pivoting itself made it impossible for the Fed to actually pivot by loosening financial conditions.Data by YChartsNow, this has all been unwound and then some, putting downward pressure on inflation. This might set the conditions for inflation to possibly come in better than expected, or at least not as bad as feared. If this happens, everyone might go out and pour money into stocks again, only to be slapped down by a poor inflation report in a month or two due to rising markets and a falling dollar.But They May Not Be Enough1. The Saudis and OPEC have continued their decades-long tradition of sticking it to the US and Europe, agreeing to an output cut in oil production to try to push prices back over $100 per barrel. Since almost every consumer good has to be transported from where it is manufactured to where it's bought, this directly feeds into prices. OPEC's defiance is a clear signal that inflation is not going to come down on its own without the US and Europe securing their own oil/gas production and eventually enough renewable energy to get a \"divorce\" with OPEC. This will take years, and there's no easy fix.WTI Crude Oil (Investing.com)2. Labor problems. In the early phase of the pandemic, companies saw their profit margins boom as they were able to raise prices faster than employees could bargain for wage increases. This led to the stupid media trend of the \"great resignation\" which was really just employees going to where they could earn a market wage. Now we have tons of labor problems, particularly with unions. Unions in particular are going to claw back their relative share of gross profits, and there's nothing the Fed can do to stop this with the unemployment rate at 3.5%. So we have ongoing negotiations, and threats of strikes in every economic bottleneck there is, whether it's railroad employees, dockworkers, or airline pilots. And that's just the people who work. Social Security is going to have its annual CPI adjustment (maybe 9% this year) at year-end which is going to further increase price pressures.3. Rent renewals. Asking rents are actually falling month over month, but that's cold comfort for many renters coming off of long-term leases now at much higher rates than previous. They don't go into CPI until they're paid, so this will continually put upward pressure on inflation after the lag from earlier in the pandemic.September CPI ForecastThe Cleveland Fed has a good econometric model that I believe is more accurate than surveying a bunch of random economists. They have core CPI at 0.51% month-over-month for September and 0.53% month-over-month looking ahead to October. If these projections are right, these numbers are bad and worse than the market expects, showing that the Fed is nowhere near stopping inflation and that a hard landing is the only way down.Another approach I sometimes like is to look at other areas that report CPI earlier in the month than the US. Since global central banks have begun to coordinate policy, hot numbers abroad have generally predicted hot numbers in the US. In September, CPI in Thailand came in better than expected, Taiwan came in worse, and the Philippines came in worse. In Europe, the Netherlands put in an awful report not just because of energy, but also in services inflation. Hungary similarly saw huge increases in the cost of services. These both are indicating that core CPI could potentially be hotter than expected.But my best guess is that tighter financial conditions are doing enough to hold these pressures more or less in check enough to keep core CPI at 0.5% month-over-month. This said– I don't doubt JPMorgan's nightmare prediction that stocks will fall 5% in a day or two if core CPI comes in at 0.6% month over month. In any case, checking some econometric models and countries that report CPI before the US shows that this inflation report is unlikely to be particularly good.This article is written by Logan Kane for reference only. 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